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000
AXNT20 KNHC 300534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 07N12W TO 04N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 01N34W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 05N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 02N BETWEEN
25N-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE EASTERN PORTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF
WATERS KEEPING THE BASIN WITH A NW FLOW ALOFT. A PAIR OF SURFACE
HIGHS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE
FIRST ONE IS A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N95W. TO THE E...A
1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N84W. A SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES
ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST WITH NO CONVECTION AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF WITHIN THE
NEXT 6 HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN
ENHANCING CONVECTION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH AXIS NEAR 64W
EXTENDS SW SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM 23N64W TO
17N44W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS
SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS. A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS
CONTINUES ACROSS AND S OF PUERTO RICO ENHANCING ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM
17N81W TO 12N82W. CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA AS A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS DOMINATES. SLIGHT TO
GENTLE TRADES ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 80W WHILE GENTLE NE FLOW IS W OF 80W. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E THEN
BECOME STATIONARY WHILE WEAKENING.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW ATLANTIC
WITH ITS TAIL EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA. WITH
THIS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL DRIFT E ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN
STALL AND WEAKEN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE AREA
OF DISCUSSION ENTERING THE SW ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 31N56W TO
20N70W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 21N BETWEEN
53W-64W. TO THE E OF THE FRONT...THE REFLECTION OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N37W
TO 24N38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 21N-27N
BETWEEN 34W-40W. A BROAD 1037 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR
38N30W EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN. THE
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 38W WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MOVES NE WHILE WEAKENING ALSO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 300534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 07N12W TO 04N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 01N34W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 05N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 02N BETWEEN
25N-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE EASTERN PORTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF
WATERS KEEPING THE BASIN WITH A NW FLOW ALOFT. A PAIR OF SURFACE
HIGHS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE
FIRST ONE IS A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N95W. TO THE E...A
1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N84W. A SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES
ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST WITH NO CONVECTION AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF WITHIN THE
NEXT 6 HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN
ENHANCING CONVECTION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH AXIS NEAR 64W
EXTENDS SW SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM 23N64W TO
17N44W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS
SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS. A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS
CONTINUES ACROSS AND S OF PUERTO RICO ENHANCING ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM
17N81W TO 12N82W. CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA AS A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS DOMINATES. SLIGHT TO
GENTLE TRADES ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 80W WHILE GENTLE NE FLOW IS W OF 80W. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E THEN
BECOME STATIONARY WHILE WEAKENING.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW ATLANTIC
WITH ITS TAIL EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA. WITH
THIS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL DRIFT E ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN
STALL AND WEAKEN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE AREA
OF DISCUSSION ENTERING THE SW ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 31N56W TO
20N70W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 21N BETWEEN
53W-64W. TO THE E OF THE FRONT...THE REFLECTION OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N37W
TO 24N38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 21N-27N
BETWEEN 34W-40W. A BROAD 1037 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR
38N30W EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN. THE
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 38W WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MOVES NE WHILE WEAKENING ALSO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300337
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JAN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LONG
DURATION MINIMAL GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. NE
SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS GALE EVENT...AS
WELL AS FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE
COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
SWELLS HAS RESULTED IN A LARGE AREA OF 8-10 FT SEAS FROM 03N-14N
BETWEEN 93W-108W. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SAT...WITH WINDS IN THE SW GULF OF
MEXICO EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A SE RETURN FLOW BY SAT MORNING. THE
GALE WARNING IS SCHEDULED TO COME DOWN AFTER SUNRISE SAT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE
FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA THAT HAS BROUGHT
GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE REGION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SHOULD
REMAIN STRONG THROUGH FRI MORNING. AFTERWARD...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE AND SHRINK IN
AREAL COVERAGE SIGNIFICANTLY. SWELLS FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF 8-10 FT
SEAS DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BUT SEAS OVER 8 FT
ASSOCIATED WITH WINDS FROM PAPAGAYO WILL SHRINK EASTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 04N90W TO 03N95W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W
AND 123W AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 118W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES FROM 32N120W TO 10N114W. A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS LIES E OF THE TROUGH INTO NW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FRIDAY
AND CUT OFF A LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SAT. A
STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
U.S. GREAT BASIN AND TROUGHING ON THE W SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAINS IS FORCING A FRESH TO STRONG N-
NW BREEZE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WERE
OBSERVED BY THE LATEST ASCAT PASSES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH HERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN THE
GULF OF PANAMA LATE TONIGHT AND IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRI.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WILL SLACKEN
THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT FRI AFTERNOON.

THE 1025 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH NEAR 36N132W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 19N140W. RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOW FRESH TO
STRONG NE TRADE WINDS LIE OVER THE WATERS PRIMARILY W OF 130W
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE ITCZ AXIS. THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SAT
EVENING.

$$
SCHAUER



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300337
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JAN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LONG
DURATION MINIMAL GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. NE
SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS GALE EVENT...AS
WELL AS FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE
COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
SWELLS HAS RESULTED IN A LARGE AREA OF 8-10 FT SEAS FROM 03N-14N
BETWEEN 93W-108W. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SAT...WITH WINDS IN THE SW GULF OF
MEXICO EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A SE RETURN FLOW BY SAT MORNING. THE
GALE WARNING IS SCHEDULED TO COME DOWN AFTER SUNRISE SAT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE
FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA THAT HAS BROUGHT
GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE REGION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SHOULD
REMAIN STRONG THROUGH FRI MORNING. AFTERWARD...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE AND SHRINK IN
AREAL COVERAGE SIGNIFICANTLY. SWELLS FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF 8-10 FT
SEAS DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BUT SEAS OVER 8 FT
ASSOCIATED WITH WINDS FROM PAPAGAYO WILL SHRINK EASTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 04N90W TO 03N95W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W
AND 123W AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 118W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES FROM 32N120W TO 10N114W. A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS LIES E OF THE TROUGH INTO NW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FRIDAY
AND CUT OFF A LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SAT. A
STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
U.S. GREAT BASIN AND TROUGHING ON THE W SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAINS IS FORCING A FRESH TO STRONG N-
NW BREEZE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WERE
OBSERVED BY THE LATEST ASCAT PASSES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH HERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN THE
GULF OF PANAMA LATE TONIGHT AND IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRI.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WILL SLACKEN
THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT FRI AFTERNOON.

THE 1025 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH NEAR 36N132W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 19N140W. RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOW FRESH TO
STRONG NE TRADE WINDS LIE OVER THE WATERS PRIMARILY W OF 130W
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE ITCZ AXIS. THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SAT
EVENING.

$$
SCHAUER


000
AXNT20 KNHC 300006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 07N12W TO 02N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 02N40W TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 05N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 24W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS
THE GULF WATERS...THUS SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1023 MB HIGH IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N93W AND A 1025 MB HIGH OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N84W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
NW ALABAMA...ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND SE LOUISIANA TO 28N90W WITH
NO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WHEN IT WILL STALL...THEN
DISSIPATE DURING THE NIGHT HOURS. CURRENTLY...FAIR WEATHER AND
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH E-SE WINDS OF 5-10 KT DOMINATING S OF
27N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 66W EXTENDS
SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC WITH TAIL EXTENDING
ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH SW OF JAMAICA ALONG 18N78W TO 10N82W
THAT ENHANCES SHOWERS BETWEEN ITS AXIS AND THE CENTRAL AMERICA
COASTLINE FROM EASTERN HONDURAS TO NORTHERN PANAMA. A SHALLOW
MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS AND S OF PUERTO RICO
POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR DOMINATES ELSEWHERE...THUS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. N OF 17N AND W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
WINDS ARE FROM THE NE IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT.  TRADES OF 15-20
KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...HIGHEST WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL BASIN INCREASING TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN IT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN ISLAND AND THEN
DISSIPATE DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC WITH
TAIL EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WHEN IT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN ISLAND AND THEN
DISSIPATE DURING THE NIGHT HOURS. HIGH PROBABILITIES OF FOG ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF
THE AREA OF DISCUSSION...ENTERING THE SW N ATLC WATERS ALONG
30N57W TO 22N65W WITH TAIL REACHING NW HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS THE
COLD FRONT AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 29N57W TO 21N62W. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE
FRONT N OF 21N. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
BASIN WITH A WEAKNESS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 24N37W
TO 21N38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 21N-27N
BETWEEN 33W-39W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS



000
AXNT20 KNHC 300005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 07N12W TO 02N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 02N40W TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 05N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 24W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS
THE GULF WATERS...THUS SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1023 MB HIGH IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N93W AND A 1025 MB HIGH OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N84W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
NW ALABAMA...ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND SE LOUISIANA TO 28N90W WITH
NO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WHEN IT WILL STALL...THEN
DISSIPATE DURING THE NIGHT HOURS. CURRENTLY...FAIR WEATHER AND
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH E-SE WINDS OF 5-10 KT DOMINATING S OF
27N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 66W EXTENDS
SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC WITH TAIL EXTENDING
ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH SW OF JAMAICA ALONG 18N78W TO 10N82W
THAT ENHANCES SHOWERS BETWEEN ITS AXIS AND THE CENTRAL AMERICA
COASTLINE FROM EASTERN HONDURAS TO NORTHERN PANAMA. A SHALLOW
MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS AND S OF PUERTO RICO
POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR DOMINATES ELSEWHERE...THUS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. N OF 17N AND W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
WINDS ARE FROM THE NE IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT.  TRADES OF 15-20
KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...HIGHEST WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL BASIN INCREASING TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN IT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN ISLAND AND THEN
DISSIPATE DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC WITH
TAIL EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWES ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WHEN IT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN ISLAND AND THEN
DISSIPATE DURING THE NIGHT HOURS. HIGH PROBABILITIES OF FOG ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF
THE AREA OF DISCUSSION...ENTERING THE SW N ATLC WATERS ALONG
30N57W TO 22N65W WITH TAIL REACHING NW HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS THE
COLD FRONT AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 29N57W TO 21N62W. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE
FRONT N OF 21N. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
BASIN WITH A WEAKNESS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 24N37W
TO 21N38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 21N-27N
BETEWEEN 33W-39W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292201
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JAN 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LONG
DURATION MINIMAL GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. NE
SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS GALE EVENT...AS
WELL AS FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE
COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
SWELLS HAS RESULTED IN A LARGE AREA OF 8-10 FT SEAS FROM 04N-14N
BETWEEN 93W-106W AND FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 106W-110W. THE TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SAT...WITH
THE GALE WARNING SCHEDULED TO COME DOWN AFTER SUNRISE SAT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE
FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL MINIMAL GALE FORCE FORCE WINDS INTO THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY THIS
EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT 30 KT WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE EXPECTED THEREAFTER. SWELLS FROM THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF
8-10 FT SEAS DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 03N90W TO 08N128W TO 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 110W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES FROM 32N122W TO 10N115W. A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS LIES E OF THE TROUGH INTO NW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FRIDAY
AND CUT OFF A LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SAT. A
STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
U.S. GREAT BASIN AND TROUGHING ON THE W SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAINS IS FORCING A FRESH TO STRONG N-
NW BREEZE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WERE
OBSERVED BY THE LATEST ASCAT PASSES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH HERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZE WITH SEAS TO 10 FT CONTINUES
S OF THE GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS
AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT FRI AFTERNOON.

RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS LIE OVER
THE WATERS PRIMARILY W OF 130W N OF THE ITCZ AXIS. THESE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
SAT AFTERNOON.

$$
SCHAUER/DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292201
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JAN 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LONG
DURATION MINIMAL GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. NE
SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS GALE EVENT...AS
WELL AS FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE
COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
SWELLS HAS RESULTED IN A LARGE AREA OF 8-10 FT SEAS FROM 04N-14N
BETWEEN 93W-106W AND FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 106W-110W. THE TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SAT...WITH
THE GALE WARNING SCHEDULED TO COME DOWN AFTER SUNRISE SAT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE
FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL MINIMAL GALE FORCE FORCE WINDS INTO THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY THIS
EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT 30 KT WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE EXPECTED THEREAFTER. SWELLS FROM THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF
8-10 FT SEAS DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 03N90W TO 08N128W TO 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 110W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES FROM 32N122W TO 10N115W. A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS LIES E OF THE TROUGH INTO NW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FRIDAY
AND CUT OFF A LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SAT. A
STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
U.S. GREAT BASIN AND TROUGHING ON THE W SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAINS IS FORCING A FRESH TO STRONG N-
NW BREEZE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WERE
OBSERVED BY THE LATEST ASCAT PASSES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH HERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZE WITH SEAS TO 10 FT CONTINUES
S OF THE GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS
AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT FRI AFTERNOON.

RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS LIE OVER
THE WATERS PRIMARILY W OF 130W N OF THE ITCZ AXIS. THESE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
SAT AFTERNOON.

$$
SCHAUER/DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292201
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JAN 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LONG
DURATION MINIMAL GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. NE
SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS GALE EVENT...AS
WELL AS FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE
COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
SWELLS HAS RESULTED IN A LARGE AREA OF 8-10 FT SEAS FROM 04N-14N
BETWEEN 93W-106W AND FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 106W-110W. THE TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SAT...WITH
THE GALE WARNING SCHEDULED TO COME DOWN AFTER SUNRISE SAT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE
FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL MINIMAL GALE FORCE FORCE WINDS INTO THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY THIS
EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT 30 KT WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE EXPECTED THEREAFTER. SWELLS FROM THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF
8-10 FT SEAS DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 03N90W TO 08N128W TO 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 110W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES FROM 32N122W TO 10N115W. A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS LIES E OF THE TROUGH INTO NW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FRIDAY
AND CUT OFF A LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SAT. A
STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
U.S. GREAT BASIN AND TROUGHING ON THE W SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAINS IS FORCING A FRESH TO STRONG N-
NW BREEZE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WERE
OBSERVED BY THE LATEST ASCAT PASSES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH HERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZE WITH SEAS TO 10 FT CONTINUES
S OF THE GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS
AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT FRI AFTERNOON.

RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS LIE OVER
THE WATERS PRIMARILY W OF 130W N OF THE ITCZ AXIS. THESE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
SAT AFTERNOON.

$$
SCHAUER/DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292201
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JAN 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LONG
DURATION MINIMAL GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. NE
SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS GALE EVENT...AS
WELL AS FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE
COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
SWELLS HAS RESULTED IN A LARGE AREA OF 8-10 FT SEAS FROM 04N-14N
BETWEEN 93W-106W AND FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 106W-110W. THE TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SAT...WITH
THE GALE WARNING SCHEDULED TO COME DOWN AFTER SUNRISE SAT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE
FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL MINIMAL GALE FORCE FORCE WINDS INTO THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY THIS
EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT 30 KT WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE EXPECTED THEREAFTER. SWELLS FROM THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF
8-10 FT SEAS DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 03N90W TO 08N128W TO 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 110W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES FROM 32N122W TO 10N115W. A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS LIES E OF THE TROUGH INTO NW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FRIDAY
AND CUT OFF A LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SAT. A
STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
U.S. GREAT BASIN AND TROUGHING ON THE W SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAINS IS FORCING A FRESH TO STRONG N-
NW BREEZE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WERE
OBSERVED BY THE LATEST ASCAT PASSES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH HERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZE WITH SEAS TO 10 FT CONTINUES
S OF THE GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS
AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT FRI AFTERNOON.

RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS LIE OVER
THE WATERS PRIMARILY W OF 130W N OF THE ITCZ AXIS. THESE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
SAT AFTERNOON.

$$
SCHAUER/DGS



000
AXNT20 KNHC 291800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 09N13W TO 02N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 02N35W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 04N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 26W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF. AT THE
SURFACE...1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 33N82W SUPPORTS
FAIR WEATHER AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. MAINLY E TO
SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE ENTIRE GULF TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA AND INTO
THE N CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 18N73W TO 10N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. SCATTERED
TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
72W...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. NE WINDS OF
15 TO 25 KT COVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 79W. E TO NE TRADE WINDS
MAINLY BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 79W. OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A
SURFACE TROUGH AND WILL THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO 20N70W AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT
SANTIAGO TO BAINET AND OVER THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N74W. MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND
TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL MERGE WITH THE
STATIONARY FRONT TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE ISLAND THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ENHANCED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER
THE ENTIRE ISLAND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 70W SUPPORTS A STORM
SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 36N60W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO
31N60W TO 25N67W TO E CUBA NEAR 21N75W. THIS COLD FRONT IS
BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
29N61W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
IS JUST EAST OF THESE FRONTS EXTENDING FROM 26N60W TO 20N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE COLD
FRONT N OF 22N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 69W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N40W TO 20N40W. THIS TROUGH IS INTERACTING
WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N38W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 33W AND 40W. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OF 1039 MB CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES PROVIDES
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE COLD
FRONT AND STATIONARY FRONT WILL MERGE WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
EXITS THE SE US INTO THE W ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 291800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 09N13W TO 02N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 02N35W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 04N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 26W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF. AT THE
SURFACE...1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 33N82W SUPPORTS
FAIR WEATHER AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. MAINLY E TO
SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE ENTIRE GULF TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA AND INTO
THE N CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 18N73W TO 10N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. SCATTERED
TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
72W...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. NE WINDS OF
15 TO 25 KT COVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 79W. E TO NE TRADE WINDS
MAINLY BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 79W. OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A
SURFACE TROUGH AND WILL THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO 20N70W AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT
SANTIAGO TO BAINET AND OVER THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N74W. MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND
TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL MERGE WITH THE
STATIONARY FRONT TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE ISLAND THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ENHANCED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER
THE ENTIRE ISLAND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 70W SUPPORTS A STORM
SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 36N60W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO
31N60W TO 25N67W TO E CUBA NEAR 21N75W. THIS COLD FRONT IS
BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
29N61W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
IS JUST EAST OF THESE FRONTS EXTENDING FROM 26N60W TO 20N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE COLD
FRONT N OF 22N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 69W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N40W TO 20N40W. THIS TROUGH IS INTERACTING
WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N38W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 33W AND 40W. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OF 1039 MB CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES PROVIDES
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE COLD
FRONT AND STATIONARY FRONT WILL MERGE WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
EXITS THE SE US INTO THE W ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291514
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JAN 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO GULF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
LONG DURATION EVENT OF N TO NE 30-35 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC. NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM
THIS GALE EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG
PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING
IN A LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8-10 FT FROM 5N-14N BETWEEN 90W-102W AND
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 102W-115W AND FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 115-125W.
THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
SAT ALLOWING FOR THE GALE WINDS TO DECREASE TO MINIMAL THRESHOLD
BY LATE FRI...AND TO 20-25 KT BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH SEAS IN THE
GULF SUBSIDING TO AROUND 14 FT FRI AND TO 9 OR 10 FT LATE SAT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE
FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA IS HELPING TO
SET OFF MINIMAL GALE FORCE FORCE THROUGH THE GULF. THESE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY THIS EVENING...WITH NE WINDS
20-25 KT AND SEAS 8-10 FT FROM 10N-11N W OF 87W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ FROM 2N91W TO 7N130W TO 7N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 10N W OF 125W. A 95-110 KT JETSTREAM IS
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ENTERING THE AREA AT 32N131W TO
20N120W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR
AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 10N W OF 125W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS E OF THE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N122W TO
11N117W. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 17N-28N
BETWEEN 17N-120W. SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS IS SPREADING MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NW MEXICO. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH WITH AXIS ACROSS
CENTRAL MEXICO N OF 15N.

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF
PANAMA. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT LATE FRI.

$$
DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291514
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JAN 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO GULF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
LONG DURATION EVENT OF N TO NE 30-35 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC. NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM
THIS GALE EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG
PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING
IN A LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8-10 FT FROM 5N-14N BETWEEN 90W-102W AND
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 102W-115W AND FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 115-125W.
THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
SAT ALLOWING FOR THE GALE WINDS TO DECREASE TO MINIMAL THRESHOLD
BY LATE FRI...AND TO 20-25 KT BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH SEAS IN THE
GULF SUBSIDING TO AROUND 14 FT FRI AND TO 9 OR 10 FT LATE SAT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE
FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA IS HELPING TO
SET OFF MINIMAL GALE FORCE FORCE THROUGH THE GULF. THESE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY THIS EVENING...WITH NE WINDS
20-25 KT AND SEAS 8-10 FT FROM 10N-11N W OF 87W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ FROM 2N91W TO 7N130W TO 7N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 10N W OF 125W. A 95-110 KT JETSTREAM IS
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ENTERING THE AREA AT 32N131W TO
20N120W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR
AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 10N W OF 125W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS E OF THE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N122W TO
11N117W. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 17N-28N
BETWEEN 17N-120W. SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS IS SPREADING MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NW MEXICO. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH WITH AXIS ACROSS
CENTRAL MEXICO N OF 15N.

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF
PANAMA. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT LATE FRI.

$$
DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291514
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JAN 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO GULF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
LONG DURATION EVENT OF N TO NE 30-35 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC. NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM
THIS GALE EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG
PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING
IN A LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8-10 FT FROM 5N-14N BETWEEN 90W-102W AND
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 102W-115W AND FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 115-125W.
THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
SAT ALLOWING FOR THE GALE WINDS TO DECREASE TO MINIMAL THRESHOLD
BY LATE FRI...AND TO 20-25 KT BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH SEAS IN THE
GULF SUBSIDING TO AROUND 14 FT FRI AND TO 9 OR 10 FT LATE SAT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE
FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA IS HELPING TO
SET OFF MINIMAL GALE FORCE FORCE THROUGH THE GULF. THESE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY THIS EVENING...WITH NE WINDS
20-25 KT AND SEAS 8-10 FT FROM 10N-11N W OF 87W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ FROM 2N91W TO 7N130W TO 7N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 10N W OF 125W. A 95-110 KT JETSTREAM IS
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ENTERING THE AREA AT 32N131W TO
20N120W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR
AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 10N W OF 125W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS E OF THE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N122W TO
11N117W. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 17N-28N
BETWEEN 17N-120W. SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS IS SPREADING MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NW MEXICO. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH WITH AXIS ACROSS
CENTRAL MEXICO N OF 15N.

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF
PANAMA. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT LATE FRI.

$$
DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291514
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JAN 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO GULF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
LONG DURATION EVENT OF N TO NE 30-35 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC. NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM
THIS GALE EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG
PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING
IN A LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8-10 FT FROM 5N-14N BETWEEN 90W-102W AND
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 102W-115W AND FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 115-125W.
THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
SAT ALLOWING FOR THE GALE WINDS TO DECREASE TO MINIMAL THRESHOLD
BY LATE FRI...AND TO 20-25 KT BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH SEAS IN THE
GULF SUBSIDING TO AROUND 14 FT FRI AND TO 9 OR 10 FT LATE SAT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE
FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA IS HELPING TO
SET OFF MINIMAL GALE FORCE FORCE THROUGH THE GULF. THESE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY THIS EVENING...WITH NE WINDS
20-25 KT AND SEAS 8-10 FT FROM 10N-11N W OF 87W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ FROM 2N91W TO 7N130W TO 7N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 10N W OF 125W. A 95-110 KT JETSTREAM IS
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ENTERING THE AREA AT 32N131W TO
20N120W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR
AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 10N W OF 125W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS E OF THE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N122W TO
11N117W. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 17N-28N
BETWEEN 17N-120W. SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS IS SPREADING MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NW MEXICO. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH WITH AXIS ACROSS
CENTRAL MEXICO N OF 15N.

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF
PANAMA. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT LATE FRI.

$$
DGS



000
AXNT20 KNHC 291050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 02N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01N35W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
00N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-02N BETWEEN 29W-
35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN. THIS RIDGE COVERS
THE EASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF
HIGHS LOCATED NEAR 33N82W AND 44N75W. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER. SLIGHT TO GENTLE E WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF MAINLY
E OF 90W WHILE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW SE WINDS W OF 90W. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE RIDGING TO PREVAIL. A
NEW COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
BASIN BY EARLY FRIDAY ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 18N73W TO 10N82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 50 NM OF THIS BOUNDARY. SLIGHT TO GENTLE
NORTHERLY FLOW IS WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE GENTLE
TRADES DOMINATE THE AREA E OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE BUT SHOWERS
ACROSS HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE
OVER THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION. EXPECT FOR THIS FRONT TO WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATION
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS MOISTURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A
PAIR OF FRONTS. THE FIRST IS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
21N77W TO 35N63W. THE SECOND ONE IS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N70W TO 36N56W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT
MAINLY N OF 21N BETWEEN 55W-69W. TO THE E...THE REFLECTION OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM 25N39W TO 21N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-
24N BETWEEN 34W-38W. SURFACE RIDGING SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR
39N29W. A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN
EXCEPT IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE E
ATLANTIC...WHERE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A FRESH BREEZE FROM
20N-28N BETWEEN 34W-40W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONT THIS MORNING ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 40W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291005
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JAN 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO JUST INLAND THE GULF
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LONG DURATION EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT
WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SHIP "ZCDI4" WAS AT
POSITION 16N95W AT 00 UTC LAST NIGHT WHEN IT REPORTED NE WINDS
OF 37 KT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 19 FT. NE SWELLS THAT HAVE
PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE
COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
SWELLS IS RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8-10 FT FROM 04N TO
14N BETWEEN 92W AND 104W...AND ALSO FROM 06N TO 18N BETWEEN 113W
AND 127W. FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS
AREA ARE ALSO HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE SEAS HIGH THERE. MOST
RECENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS REVEALS A POCKET OF COOL
WATER OVER THE N CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF AS WELL AS DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE GULF TO NEAR 12N BETWEEN 94W-97W DUE TO UPWELLING
EFFECTS.

THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
SAT ALLOWING FOR THE GALE WINDS TO DECREASE TO MINIMAL THRESHOLD
BY LATE FRI NIGHT...AND TO 20-25 KT BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH SEAS
IN THE GULF SUBSIDING TO AROUND 14 FT FRI AND TO 9 OR 10 FT LATE
SAT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE
FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA IS HELPING TO
SET OFF MINIMAL GALE FORCE FORCE THROUGH THE GULF. THESE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
PULSE TO 20-30 KT WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH SAT.
SEAS OF 9-11 FT WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 12 FT BY THIS EVENING
...AND SUBSIDE TO 9 FT LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT.
NE SWELLS FROM PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO MERGE WITH THE SWELL
FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 01N89W TO 05N90W TO 04N1110W TO 07N125W TO
06N135W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 117W-120W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING...NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THE MAIN
FEATURE NOTED OVER THE AREA. IT STRETCHES FROM NEAR 32N124W SSE
TO 20N122W TO 12N121W AND TO NEAR 04N112W. A SOUTHERLY JET
STREAM BRANCH ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS HELPING TO ADVECT
ABUNDANT UPPER MOISTURE...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MID AND UPPER CLOUDS NNE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE
W CENTRAL AND NW PORTIONS OF MEXICO. UNDERNEATH THIS MOISTURE
...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 10N E
OF THE TROUGH TO JUST INLAND MEXICO. A SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THIS TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 125W FROM 20N TO 28N. THE ASCAT
PASS FROM 0514 UTC LAST NIGHT INDICATE A WEAK CYCLONIC SWIRL ON
THE TROUGH NEAR 26N. LIGHTNING DENSITY DATA INDICATES MULTIPLE
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED ACTIVITY FROM 11N-
16N BETWEEN 119W-123W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS WITH THE CLOUDINESS AND
MOISTURE TO ITS E CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY SPREADING OVER MUCH OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF MEXICO N OF ABOUT
18N. ELSEWHERE...NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH PRES OF 1026 MB IS
CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N130W. THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SWWD TO W OF 140W AT 29N...WHILE A WEAKER
RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM THE HIGH TO NEAR 21N116W. A WEAK TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 16N135W TO 15N138W. BROAD HIGH PRES AT THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA TO THE
ABOVE DESCRIBED UPPER TROUGH. A MEAN RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM
THE CENTRAL U.S. SSE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO TO 16N103W AND TO
10N95W. THIS FEATURE IS MAINTAINING DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS THROUGH ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO THE E OF A
LINE FROM JUST S OF MANZANILLO TO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

GAP WINDS...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
PAPAGAYO GALE EVENTS.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS RESULTING IN STRONG N WINDS TO FUNNEL SWD
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA AND TO NEAR 05N WITH SEAS TO 9 FT.
THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY LATE
TONIGHT...AND TO 20 KT OR LESS BY FRI AFTERNOON WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS OVER AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE GULF HAVE DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRES RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND TROUGHING OVER
THE WESTERN MEXICO SLACKENS. THE RESPITE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN MEXICO AND
THE HIGH PRES RIDGING TIGHTENS SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS FROM ABOUT 23N
TO 26N AND BETWEEN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA COAST AND
MEXICO. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN TO 20 KT OR LESS
ON FRI AFTERNOON.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291005
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JAN 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO JUST INLAND THE GULF
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LONG DURATION EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT
WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SHIP "ZCDI4" WAS AT
POSITION 16N95W AT 00 UTC LAST NIGHT WHEN IT REPORTED NE WINDS
OF 37 KT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 19 FT. NE SWELLS THAT HAVE
PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE
COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
SWELLS IS RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8-10 FT FROM 04N TO
14N BETWEEN 92W AND 104W...AND ALSO FROM 06N TO 18N BETWEEN 113W
AND 127W. FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS
AREA ARE ALSO HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE SEAS HIGH THERE. MOST
RECENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS REVEALS A POCKET OF COOL
WATER OVER THE N CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF AS WELL AS DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE GULF TO NEAR 12N BETWEEN 94W-97W DUE TO UPWELLING
EFFECTS.

THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
SAT ALLOWING FOR THE GALE WINDS TO DECREASE TO MINIMAL THRESHOLD
BY LATE FRI NIGHT...AND TO 20-25 KT BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH SEAS
IN THE GULF SUBSIDING TO AROUND 14 FT FRI AND TO 9 OR 10 FT LATE
SAT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE
FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA IS HELPING TO
SET OFF MINIMAL GALE FORCE FORCE THROUGH THE GULF. THESE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
PULSE TO 20-30 KT WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH SAT.
SEAS OF 9-11 FT WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 12 FT BY THIS EVENING
...AND SUBSIDE TO 9 FT LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT.
NE SWELLS FROM PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO MERGE WITH THE SWELL
FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 01N89W TO 05N90W TO 04N1110W TO 07N125W TO
06N135W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 117W-120W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING...NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THE MAIN
FEATURE NOTED OVER THE AREA. IT STRETCHES FROM NEAR 32N124W SSE
TO 20N122W TO 12N121W AND TO NEAR 04N112W. A SOUTHERLY JET
STREAM BRANCH ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS HELPING TO ADVECT
ABUNDANT UPPER MOISTURE...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MID AND UPPER CLOUDS NNE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE
W CENTRAL AND NW PORTIONS OF MEXICO. UNDERNEATH THIS MOISTURE
...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 10N E
OF THE TROUGH TO JUST INLAND MEXICO. A SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THIS TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 125W FROM 20N TO 28N. THE ASCAT
PASS FROM 0514 UTC LAST NIGHT INDICATE A WEAK CYCLONIC SWIRL ON
THE TROUGH NEAR 26N. LIGHTNING DENSITY DATA INDICATES MULTIPLE
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED ACTIVITY FROM 11N-
16N BETWEEN 119W-123W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS WITH THE CLOUDINESS AND
MOISTURE TO ITS E CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY SPREADING OVER MUCH OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF MEXICO N OF ABOUT
18N. ELSEWHERE...NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH PRES OF 1026 MB IS
CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N130W. THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SWWD TO W OF 140W AT 29N...WHILE A WEAKER
RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM THE HIGH TO NEAR 21N116W. A WEAK TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 16N135W TO 15N138W. BROAD HIGH PRES AT THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA TO THE
ABOVE DESCRIBED UPPER TROUGH. A MEAN RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM
THE CENTRAL U.S. SSE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO TO 16N103W AND TO
10N95W. THIS FEATURE IS MAINTAINING DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS THROUGH ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO THE E OF A
LINE FROM JUST S OF MANZANILLO TO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

GAP WINDS...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
PAPAGAYO GALE EVENTS.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS RESULTING IN STRONG N WINDS TO FUNNEL SWD
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA AND TO NEAR 05N WITH SEAS TO 9 FT.
THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY LATE
TONIGHT...AND TO 20 KT OR LESS BY FRI AFTERNOON WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS OVER AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE GULF HAVE DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRES RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND TROUGHING OVER
THE WESTERN MEXICO SLACKENS. THE RESPITE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN MEXICO AND
THE HIGH PRES RIDGING TIGHTENS SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS FROM ABOUT 23N
TO 26N AND BETWEEN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA COAST AND
MEXICO. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN TO 20 KT OR LESS
ON FRI AFTERNOON.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXNT20 KNHC 290544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 04N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01N31W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
02N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-05N BETWEEN 31W-
38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING HAS BUILT ACROSS THE BASIN BEHIND A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER THE W ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE COVERS THE EASTERN
U.S. AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGHS
LOCATED NEAR 33N83W AND 40N80W. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTS STABILITY AND FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. SLIGHT TO GENTLE E WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE GULF MAINLY E OF 90W WHILE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW
SE WINDS W OF 90W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
SURFACE RIDGING TO PREVAIL. A NEW COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN BY EARLY FRIDAY
ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 18N74W TO 10N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 50 NM OF THIS BOUNDARY. SLIGHT TO GENTLE
NORTHERLY FLOW IS WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE GENTLE
TRADES DOMINATE E OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED IN DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE BUT SHOWERS
ACROSS HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE
OVER THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION. EXPECT FOR THIS FRONT TO WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATION
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS MOISTURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A
PAIR OF FRONTS. THE FIRST IS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
22N78W TO 32N64W. THE SECOND ONE IS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N70W TO 32N61W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY N OF
20N BETWEEN 56W-69W. THE REFLECTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
DEPICTED AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 19N37W TO 25N40W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 35W-41W. TO
THE E...SURFACE RIDGING SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E
ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1041 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 38N29W. A
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT IN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE E ATLANTIC...WHERE
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A FRESH BREEZE FROM 21N-29N BETWEEN
34W-40W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT THIS
MORNING ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290328
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2305 UTC WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-45 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
THE GALE WINDS HAVE RAISED THE SEAS IN THE GULF TO THE RANGE OF
12-18 FT. NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS
EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW
SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN A LARGE
AREA OF SEAS TO 9 FT DOWNSTREAM FROM 04N TO 14N TO 124W. HIGH
PRES CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A TIGHT PRES
RIDGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THU. THE GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
UNTIL SAT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW FOR NE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH 30-35 KT GALE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 8
TO 10 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU THEN
DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE LATE THU EVENING. HOWEVER NE WINDS WILL
BE 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT THROUGH FRI EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 01N89W TO 04N100W TO 07N125W TO 08N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 117W
AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...
NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8FT CONTINUE ACROSS THE
GULF OF PANAMA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT THU. ON FRI EVENING
WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO
LESS THAN 8 FT.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA W OF 110W WITH AXIS ALONG 126W. A 95
KT JETSTREAM IS ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH TO NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING OVERCAST SKIES
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 100W N OF
10N.

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290328
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2305 UTC WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-45 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
THE GALE WINDS HAVE RAISED THE SEAS IN THE GULF TO THE RANGE OF
12-18 FT. NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS
EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW
SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN A LARGE
AREA OF SEAS TO 9 FT DOWNSTREAM FROM 04N TO 14N TO 124W. HIGH
PRES CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A TIGHT PRES
RIDGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THU. THE GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
UNTIL SAT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW FOR NE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH 30-35 KT GALE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 8
TO 10 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU THEN
DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE LATE THU EVENING. HOWEVER NE WINDS WILL
BE 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT THROUGH FRI EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 01N89W TO 04N100W TO 07N125W TO 08N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 117W
AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...
NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8FT CONTINUE ACROSS THE
GULF OF PANAMA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT THU. ON FRI EVENING
WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO
LESS THAN 8 FT.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA W OF 110W WITH AXIS ALONG 126W. A 95
KT JETSTREAM IS ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH TO NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING OVERCAST SKIES
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 100W N OF
10N.

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 290005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 06N10W TO 03N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 02N33W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 08N BETWEEN 20W AND
45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING HAS BUILT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BEHIND A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SW N ATLC WATERS. THIS RIDGE COVERS THE
EASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF BEING ANCHORED BY A 1030
MB HIGH ON THE OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDER AND A 1026 MB HIGH
OVER GEORGIA. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS
THE BASIN SUPPORT STABILITY AND FAIR WEATHER. WINDS EAST OF 90W
ARE FROM THE NE RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KT. WEST OF 90W...WINDS
ARE FROM THE E-SE RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 KT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A NEW COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF FROM ALABAMA SW TO CORPUS
CHRISTI EARLY MORNING FRIDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE NIGHT HOURS...WEAKENING AND EXITING THE
BASIN SATURDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED ON NOVA
SCOTIA AND ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS WITH TAIL REACHING FROM
ANDROS TO WESTERN CUBA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER
FRONT THAT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 30N60W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA SW
TO 12N80W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCES ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S-SW OF HAITI. AN
UPPER RIDGE E-NE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BASE IS GENERATING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE MONA
PASSAGE. NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT IS WEST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHILE TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL WATERS AS
WELL AS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR SUPPORTS FAIR
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
THU MORNING BUT SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH IT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC...ACROSS
THE ISLAND WITH TAIL REACHING THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S-SW OF HAITI. AN UPPER RIDGE E-NE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH BASE IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
ADJACENT WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE MONA PASSAGE. THE STATIONARY
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE THU MORNING BUT SHOWERS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED ON NOVA
SCOTIA AND ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS ALONG 30N65W TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH TAIL REACHING WESTERN CUBA. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS
THE COLD FRONT AND A SECOND FRONT AHEAD OF IT THAT BECOMES
STATIONARY FROM 30N60W TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W TO THE
SW CARIBBEAN. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 24N AND WITHIN 175 NM E OF THE
FRONT N OF 24N. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
BASIN WITH A WEAKNESS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 28N40W
TO 21N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM
E OF ITS AXIS S OF 25N. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH
THE STATIONARY FRONT DURING THU MORNING HOURS. THE TAIL OF THIS
FRONT WILL BE NEARLY-STATIONARY ACROSS HISPANIOLA THU BEFORE IT
DISSIPATES. A SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRI
MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 290005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 06N10W TO 03N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 02N33W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 08N BETWEEN 20W AND
45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING HAS BUILT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BEHIND A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SW N ATLC WATERS. THIS RIDGE COVERS THE
EASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF BEING ANCHORED BY A 1030
MB HIGH ON THE OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDER AND A 1026 MB HIGH
OVER GEORGIA. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS
THE BASIN SUPPORT STABILITY AND FAIR WEATHER. WINDS EAST OF 90W
ARE FROM THE NE RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KT. WEST OF 90W...WINDS
ARE FROM THE E-SE RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 KT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A NEW COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF FROM ALABAMA SW TO CORPUS
CHRISTI EARLY MORNING FRIDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE NIGHT HOURS...WEAKENING AND EXITING THE
BASIN SATURDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED ON NOVA
SCOTIA AND ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS WITH TAIL REACHING FROM
ANDROS TO WESTERN CUBA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER
FRONT THAT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 30N60W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA SW
TO 12N80W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCES ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S-SW OF HAITI. AN
UPPER RIDGE E-NE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BASE IS GENERATING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE MONA
PASSAGE. NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT IS WEST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHILE TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL WATERS AS
WELL AS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR SUPPORTS FAIR
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
THU MORNING BUT SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH IT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC...ACROSS
THE ISLAND WITH TAIL REACHING THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S-SW OF HAITI. AN UPPER RIDGE E-NE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH BASE IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
ADJACENT WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE MONA PASSAGE. THE STATIONARY
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE THU MORNING BUT SHOWERS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED ON NOVA
SCOTIA AND ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS ALONG 30N65W TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH TAIL REACHING WESTERN CUBA. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS
THE COLD FRONT AND A SECOND FRONT AHEAD OF IT THAT BECOMES
STATIONARY FROM 30N60W TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W TO THE
SW CARIBBEAN. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 24N AND WITHIN 175 NM E OF THE
FRONT N OF 24N. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
BASIN WITH A WEAKNESS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 28N40W
TO 21N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM
E OF ITS AXIS S OF 25N. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH
THE STATIONARY FRONT DURING THU MORNING HOURS. THE TAIL OF THIS
FRONT WILL BE NEARLY-STATIONARY ACROSS HISPANIOLA THU BEFORE IT
DISSIPATES. A SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRI
MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282158
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1705 UTC WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-45 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
THE GALE WINDS HAVE RAISED THE SEAS IN THE GULF TO THE RANGE OF
12-18 FT. NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS
EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW
SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN A LARGE
AREA OF SEAS TO 9 FT DOWNSTREAM FROM 04N TO 14N TO 124W. HIGH
PRES CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A TIGHT PRES
RIDGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THU. THE GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
UNTIL SAT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW FOR NE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH 30-35 KT GALE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 8
TO 10 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU THEN
DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE LATE THU EVENING. HOWEVER NE WINDS WILL
BE 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT THROUGH FRI EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 01N89W TO 04N100W TO 08N125W TO 08N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 118W
AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...
NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8FT CONTINUE ACROSS THE
GULF OF PANAMA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT THU. ON FRI EVENING
WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO
LESS THAN 8 FT.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA W OF 110W WITH AXIS ALONG 126W. A 95
KT JETSTREAM IS ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH TO NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING OVERCAST SKIES
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 100W N OF
10N.

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 06N11W TO 03N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 02N30W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 02N51W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S AND 06N BETWEEN 08W AND 24W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 26W AND
49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC...THE BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND INTO THE GULF NEAR 24N84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A 1023 MB SURFACE
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N94W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AND
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. W TO SW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT
ARE OVER THE NW BASIN...E TO NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE
SW BASIN...AND NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS FL WHILE A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXITS THE TX/LA
COAST AND INTO THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND W HISPANIOLA NEAR
19N73W AND OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 17N75W. THE
FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A SHEAR LINE AT 17N75W AND EXTENDS TO NEAR
THE PANAMA COAST AT 10N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM
OF EITHER SIDE OF THESE BOUNDARIES. NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE
NW OF THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE. E TO NE TRADE WINDS MAINLY
BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS JUST OFF THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA.
A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST EAST OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT...EXTENDING ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NEAR 19N71W TO 16N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50
NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS THE SHEAR LINE AND STATIONARY FRONT ARE FORECAST
TO TRANSITION INTO A SURFACE TROUGH. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND EASTERN
HAITI AT CAP HATIEN NEAR 20N72W TO CHARDONNIERES NEAR 18N74W AND
OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND FROM CABRERA NEAR 20N70W
TO PEDEMALES NEAR 18N72W. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE ISLAND TODAY. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ONGOING ENHANCED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE ISLAND FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
FROM 31N66W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR
24N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS A SECOND COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM A STORM SYSTEM NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND TO 31N61W TO
29N62W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO HAITI NEAR
20N72W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS JUST EAST OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...EXTENDING FROM 31N59W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR
19N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
160 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 160 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 27N. FARTHER EAST...A WESTWARD
MOVING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N39W TO 22N37W AND IS
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N37W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 26N
BETWEEN 35W TO 39W. 1042 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
AZORES SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS THE E ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONT...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION POSSIBLE E OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 281745
TWDAT

2WZSTROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 06N11W TO 03N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 02N30W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 02N51W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S AND 06N BETWEEN 08W AND 24W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 26W AND
49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC...THE BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND INTO THE GULF NEAR 24N84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A 1023 MB SURFACE
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N94W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AND
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. W TO SW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT
ARE OVER THE NW BASIN...E TO NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE
SW BASIN...AND NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS FL WHILE A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXITS THE TX/LA
COAST AND INTO THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND W HISPANIOLA NEAR
19N73W AND OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 17N75W. THE
FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A SHEAR LINE AT 17N75W AND EXTENDS TO NEAR
THE PANAMA COAST AT 10N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM
OF EITHER SIDE OF THESE BOUNDARIES. NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE
NW OF THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE. E TO NE TRADE WINDS MAINLY
BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS JUST OFF THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA.
A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST EAST OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT...EXTENDING ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NEAR 19N71W TO 16N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50
NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS THE SHEAR LINE AND STATIONARY FRONT ARE FORECAST
TO TRANSITION INTO A SURFACE TROUGH. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND EASTERN
HAITI AT CAP HATIEN NEAR 20N72W TO CHARDONNIERES NEAR 18N74W AND
OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND FROM CABRERA NEAR 20N70W
TO PEDEMALES NEAR 18N72W. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE ISLAND TODAY. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ONGOING ENHANCED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE ISLAND FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
FROM 31N66W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR
24N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS A SECOND COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM A STORM SYSTEM NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND TO 31N61W TO
29N62W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO HAITI NEAR
20N72W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS JUST EAST OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...EXTENDING FROM 31N59W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR
19N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
160 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 160 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 27N. FARTHER EAST...A WESTWARD
MOVING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N39W TO 22N37W AND IS
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N37W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 26N
BETWEEN 35W TO 39W. 1042 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
AZORES SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS THE E ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONT...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION POSSIBLE E OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 281745
TWDAT

2WZSTROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 06N11W TO 03N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 02N30W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 02N51W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S AND 06N BETWEEN 08W AND 24W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 26W AND
49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC...THE BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND INTO THE GULF NEAR 24N84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A 1023 MB SURFACE
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N94W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AND
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. W TO SW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT
ARE OVER THE NW BASIN...E TO NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE
SW BASIN...AND NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS FL WHILE A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXITS THE TX/LA
COAST AND INTO THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND W HISPANIOLA NEAR
19N73W AND OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 17N75W. THE
FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A SHEAR LINE AT 17N75W AND EXTENDS TO NEAR
THE PANAMA COAST AT 10N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM
OF EITHER SIDE OF THESE BOUNDARIES. NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE
NW OF THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE. E TO NE TRADE WINDS MAINLY
BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS JUST OFF THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA.
A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST EAST OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT...EXTENDING ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NEAR 19N71W TO 16N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50
NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS THE SHEAR LINE AND STATIONARY FRONT ARE FORECAST
TO TRANSITION INTO A SURFACE TROUGH. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND EASTERN
HAITI AT CAP HATIEN NEAR 20N72W TO CHARDONNIERES NEAR 18N74W AND
OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND FROM CABRERA NEAR 20N70W
TO PEDEMALES NEAR 18N72W. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE ISLAND TODAY. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ONGOING ENHANCED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE ISLAND FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
FROM 31N66W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR
24N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS A SECOND COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM A STORM SYSTEM NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND TO 31N61W TO
29N62W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO HAITI NEAR
20N72W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS JUST EAST OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...EXTENDING FROM 31N59W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR
19N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
160 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 160 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 27N. FARTHER EAST...A WESTWARD
MOVING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N39W TO 22N37W AND IS
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N37W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 26N
BETWEEN 35W TO 39W. 1042 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
AZORES SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS THE E ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONT...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION POSSIBLE E OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281525
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1105 UTC WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-45 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
THE GALE WINDS HAVE RAISED THE SEAS IN THE GULF TO THE RANGE OF
11-17 FT. NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS
EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW
SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN A LARGE
AREA OF SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 91W AND 105W...ALSO
FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W AND FROM 07N TO 19N
BETWEEN 110W AND 124W. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO WITH A TIGHT PRES RIDGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THU. THE GALE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND TO
MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 14 FT AND TO 12 FT THU NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW FOR NE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH 30-35 KT GALE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 8
TO 10 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU THEN
DIMINISH TO BELOW THU NIGHT. HOWEVER NE WINDS WILL BE 20-25 KT
WITH SEAS TO 9 FT THROUGH FRI.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ FROM 5N90W TO 4N105W TO 8N125W TO 8N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
EXTENDS FROM 32N125W TO 13N122W. A 95-125 KT JETSTREAM ON THE W
SIDE OF THE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N138W TO 18N128W. A 95
KT JET IS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 24N120W TO
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION E OF THE TROUGH FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 117W-124W. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH WITH AXIS ACROSS
CENTRAL MEXICO N OF 15N.

THE LARGE SWELL THAT HAD BEEN ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA
HAVE SUBSIDED TO LESS THE 8 FT.

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8FT CONTINUE ACROSS THE
GULF OF PANAMA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT THU. ON FRI WINDS
WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS
THAN 8 FT.

$$
DGS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 281120
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AN AREA N OF 28N AND E OF FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO 27N80W TO 66W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS MORNING. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 08N13W TO 02N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 02N33W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-03N BETWEEN 16W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND OVER W
ATLANTIC AND INTO THE FAR NE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A PAIR OF
COLD FRONTS THAT ARE ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MEXICO INTO THE PLAIN STATES GIVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
25N95W. LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATING THE BASIN. A SLIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS W OF 90W WHILE A GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW IS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA E OF 90W. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER
THE W GULF TO DRIFT E BEFORE DISSIPATING. A HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SE CONUS WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN AFTER THAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO HAITI. A SHEAR
LINE EXTENDS S FROM THE FRONT THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN FROM 19N74W
TO 10N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SHEARLINE
AFFECTING THE ADJACENT WATERS W OF HAITI...E OF JAMAICA AND N OF
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC ACROSS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS FROM 18N69W TO 15N72W WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AFFECTING LA MONA PASSAGE AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER
COLOMBIA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND
S CENTRAL ATLANTIC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF THE SHEAR LINE WHICH
KEEPS THE AREA UNDER A FAIR WEATHER REGIME. SLIGHT TO GENTLE
TRADES PREVAIL E OF THE SHEAR LINE WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS W OF THE SHEARLINE. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER HAITI TO WEAKEN. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA
RICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER HAITI AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER E
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA ENHANCING CONVECTION AS THE FRONT
AND TROUGH MERGE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND STALL.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO OVER THE
W ATLANTIC AND THE FAR NE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A PAIR OF
COLD FRONTS. THE FIRST ONE EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 26N80W TO 32N69W. THE SECOND FRONT EXTENDS FROM 19N73W TO
32N61W. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GALE FORCE WINDS IN
THE PROXIMITY OF THESE FRONTS THEREFORE A GALE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. TO THE E OF THE FRONTS...A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 19N69W TO 24N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
N OF 21N BETWEEN 56W-68W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
DOMINATED BY A 1042 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 39N30W. THE
REFLECTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED AS A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 24N36W TO 28N36W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC TO HAITI TO
MERGE WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND STALL. THE COLD FRONT
BEHIND THIS ONE WILL CONTINUE MOVING E MERGING WITH THE STALLED
FRONT IN 48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281120
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AN AREA N OF 28N AND E OF FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO 27N80W TO 66W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS MORNING. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 08N13W TO 02N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 02N33W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-03N BETWEEN 16W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND OVER W
ATLANTIC AND INTO THE FAR NE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A PAIR OF
COLD FRONTS THAT ARE ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MEXICO INTO THE PLAIN STATES GIVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
25N95W. LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATING THE BASIN. A SLIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS W OF 90W WHILE A GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW IS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA E OF 90W. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER
THE W GULF TO DRIFT E BEFORE DISSIPATING. A HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SE CONUS WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN AFTER THAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO HAITI. A SHEAR
LINE EXTENDS S FROM THE FRONT THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN FROM 19N74W
TO 10N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SHEARLINE
AFFECTING THE ADJACENT WATERS W OF HAITI...E OF JAMAICA AND N OF
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC ACROSS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS FROM 18N69W TO 15N72W WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AFFECTING LA MONA PASSAGE AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER
COLOMBIA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND
S CENTRAL ATLANTIC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF THE SHEAR LINE WHICH
KEEPS THE AREA UNDER A FAIR WEATHER REGIME. SLIGHT TO GENTLE
TRADES PREVAIL E OF THE SHEAR LINE WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS W OF THE SHEARLINE. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER HAITI TO WEAKEN. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA
RICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER HAITI AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER E
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA ENHANCING CONVECTION AS THE FRONT
AND TROUGH MERGE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND STALL.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO OVER THE
W ATLANTIC AND THE FAR NE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A PAIR OF
COLD FRONTS. THE FIRST ONE EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 26N80W TO 32N69W. THE SECOND FRONT EXTENDS FROM 19N73W TO
32N61W. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GALE FORCE WINDS IN
THE PROXIMITY OF THESE FRONTS THEREFORE A GALE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. TO THE E OF THE FRONTS...A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 19N69W TO 24N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
N OF 21N BETWEEN 56W-68W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
DOMINATED BY A 1042 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 39N30W. THE
REFLECTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED AS A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 24N36W TO 28N36W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC TO HAITI TO
MERGE WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND STALL. THE COLD FRONT
BEHIND THIS ONE WILL CONTINUE MOVING E MERGING WITH THE STALLED
FRONT IN 48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281006
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-45 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
SHIP "C6FR3" NEAR 15N94W REPORTED NE WINDS AT 43 KT AT 04 AND 06
UTC. THE GALE WINDS HAVE RAISED THE SEAS IN THE GULF TO THE
RANGE OF 11-18 FT. NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM
FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG
PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING
IN A LARGE AREA OF SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 91W AND
105W...ALSO FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W AND FROM 07N
TO 19N BETWEEN 110W AND 124W. FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THIS AREA ARE ALSO HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE SEAS HIGH.
MOST RECENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS REVEALS A COOL
POCKET OF WATERS OVER A PORTION OF THE GULF AS WELL AS
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF TO NEAR 13N BETWEEN 94W-97W DUE TO
UPWELLING EFFECTS.

HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE
ASSOCIATED CULPRIT TIGHT PRES RIDGING STRETCHING SEWD ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
THU. THE GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO AROUND 14 FT AND TO 12 FT THU NIGHT. THE WINDS
THEN INCREASE SOME THU NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRI AS THE RIDGING
BECOMES REINFORCED BY ANOTHER RIDGE THAT BUILDS SWD OVER THE FAR
WESTERN GULF AND EASTERN MEXICO TERRAIN. SEAS IN THE GULF ARE
FORECAST BY THE TAFB/NWPS GUIDANCE TO BUILD TO BACK TO 14 FT ON
FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
BEHIND A SHEAR LINE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 10N WILL
ALLOW FOR NE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO
INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND
PULSE BACK TO GALE FORCE WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF DRAINAGE FLOW
OFF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
THROUGH THU. SEAS IN AND NEAR THE GULF ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO
THE RANGE OF 8-12 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THU AFTERNOON
BEFORE SUBSIDING TO AROUND 9 FT BY LATE THU. NE SWELLS FROM
PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO MERGE WITH THE SWELL FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N78W TO 06N85W TO 05N94W
WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDING TO 04N105W TO 07N114W TO 08N125W AND TO 08N140W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG OR NEAR THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING...NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THE MAIN
FEATURE NOTED. IT STRETCHES FROM NEAR 32N130W TO 23N129W TO
16N127W AND TO 09N122W. A SOUTHERLY JET STREAM BRANCH ON THE E
SIDE OF THE TROUGH HAS MAX WINDS OF 80-100 KT. THIS IS HELPING
TO ADVECT ABUNDANT UPPER MOISTURE...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MID AND UPPER CLOUDS NNE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND W CENTRAL MEXICO. UNDERNEATH THIS MOISTURE
...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N-
28N E OF THE TROUGH TO 110W. A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH
IS ANALYZED FROM 16N122W TO 11N123W. LIGHTNING DENSITY DATA
INDICATES MULTIPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN THE MENTIONED
ACTIVITY FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 119W-123W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24N-48 HRS WITH
THE CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE TO ITS E GRADUALLY SPREADING OVER
MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF MEXICO N OF
ABOUT 18N. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRES OF 1023 MB IS CENTERED NEAR
35N124W MOVING NW 10 KT. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SE TO
15N118W AND TO NEAR 18N116W. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N135W
TO 15N138W.

GAP WINDS...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
PAPAGAYO GALE EVENTS.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS RESULTING IN STRONG N WINDS TO FUNNEL SWD
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH AS FAR S AS 04N BY LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 10 FT...AND LAST THROUGH WED AFTERNOON BEFORE
SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY THU NIGHT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A TROUGH JUST W
OF MEXICO ALONG 106W FROM 16N-19N AND HIGH PRES RIDGING JUST W
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS
OFFSHORE OF THE SE TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS
BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE AGAIN FROM 22N-25N
BETWEEN 108W-110W BY LATE THU NIGHT AS RIDGING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS STRENGTHENS.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281006
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-45 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
SHIP "C6FR3" NEAR 15N94W REPORTED NE WINDS AT 43 KT AT 04 AND 06
UTC. THE GALE WINDS HAVE RAISED THE SEAS IN THE GULF TO THE
RANGE OF 11-18 FT. NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM
FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG
PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING
IN A LARGE AREA OF SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 91W AND
105W...ALSO FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W AND FROM 07N
TO 19N BETWEEN 110W AND 124W. FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THIS AREA ARE ALSO HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE SEAS HIGH.
MOST RECENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS REVEALS A COOL
POCKET OF WATERS OVER A PORTION OF THE GULF AS WELL AS
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF TO NEAR 13N BETWEEN 94W-97W DUE TO
UPWELLING EFFECTS.

HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE
ASSOCIATED CULPRIT TIGHT PRES RIDGING STRETCHING SEWD ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
THU. THE GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO AROUND 14 FT AND TO 12 FT THU NIGHT. THE WINDS
THEN INCREASE SOME THU NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRI AS THE RIDGING
BECOMES REINFORCED BY ANOTHER RIDGE THAT BUILDS SWD OVER THE FAR
WESTERN GULF AND EASTERN MEXICO TERRAIN. SEAS IN THE GULF ARE
FORECAST BY THE TAFB/NWPS GUIDANCE TO BUILD TO BACK TO 14 FT ON
FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
BEHIND A SHEAR LINE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 10N WILL
ALLOW FOR NE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO
INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND
PULSE BACK TO GALE FORCE WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF DRAINAGE FLOW
OFF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
THROUGH THU. SEAS IN AND NEAR THE GULF ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO
THE RANGE OF 8-12 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THU AFTERNOON
BEFORE SUBSIDING TO AROUND 9 FT BY LATE THU. NE SWELLS FROM
PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO MERGE WITH THE SWELL FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N78W TO 06N85W TO 05N94W
WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDING TO 04N105W TO 07N114W TO 08N125W AND TO 08N140W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG OR NEAR THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING...NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THE MAIN
FEATURE NOTED. IT STRETCHES FROM NEAR 32N130W TO 23N129W TO
16N127W AND TO 09N122W. A SOUTHERLY JET STREAM BRANCH ON THE E
SIDE OF THE TROUGH HAS MAX WINDS OF 80-100 KT. THIS IS HELPING
TO ADVECT ABUNDANT UPPER MOISTURE...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MID AND UPPER CLOUDS NNE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND W CENTRAL MEXICO. UNDERNEATH THIS MOISTURE
...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N-
28N E OF THE TROUGH TO 110W. A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH
IS ANALYZED FROM 16N122W TO 11N123W. LIGHTNING DENSITY DATA
INDICATES MULTIPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN THE MENTIONED
ACTIVITY FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 119W-123W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24N-48 HRS WITH
THE CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE TO ITS E GRADUALLY SPREADING OVER
MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF MEXICO N OF
ABOUT 18N. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRES OF 1023 MB IS CENTERED NEAR
35N124W MOVING NW 10 KT. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SE TO
15N118W AND TO NEAR 18N116W. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N135W
TO 15N138W.

GAP WINDS...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
PAPAGAYO GALE EVENTS.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS RESULTING IN STRONG N WINDS TO FUNNEL SWD
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH AS FAR S AS 04N BY LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 10 FT...AND LAST THROUGH WED AFTERNOON BEFORE
SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY THU NIGHT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A TROUGH JUST W
OF MEXICO ALONG 106W FROM 16N-19N AND HIGH PRES RIDGING JUST W
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS
OFFSHORE OF THE SE TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS
BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE AGAIN FROM 22N-25N
BETWEEN 108W-110W BY LATE THU NIGHT AS RIDGING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS STRENGTHENS.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281006
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-45 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
SHIP "C6FR3" NEAR 15N94W REPORTED NE WINDS AT 43 KT AT 04 AND 06
UTC. THE GALE WINDS HAVE RAISED THE SEAS IN THE GULF TO THE
RANGE OF 11-18 FT. NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM
FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG
PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING
IN A LARGE AREA OF SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 91W AND
105W...ALSO FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W AND FROM 07N
TO 19N BETWEEN 110W AND 124W. FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THIS AREA ARE ALSO HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE SEAS HIGH.
MOST RECENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS REVEALS A COOL
POCKET OF WATERS OVER A PORTION OF THE GULF AS WELL AS
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF TO NEAR 13N BETWEEN 94W-97W DUE TO
UPWELLING EFFECTS.

HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE
ASSOCIATED CULPRIT TIGHT PRES RIDGING STRETCHING SEWD ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
THU. THE GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO AROUND 14 FT AND TO 12 FT THU NIGHT. THE WINDS
THEN INCREASE SOME THU NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRI AS THE RIDGING
BECOMES REINFORCED BY ANOTHER RIDGE THAT BUILDS SWD OVER THE FAR
WESTERN GULF AND EASTERN MEXICO TERRAIN. SEAS IN THE GULF ARE
FORECAST BY THE TAFB/NWPS GUIDANCE TO BUILD TO BACK TO 14 FT ON
FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
BEHIND A SHEAR LINE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 10N WILL
ALLOW FOR NE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO
INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND
PULSE BACK TO GALE FORCE WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF DRAINAGE FLOW
OFF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
THROUGH THU. SEAS IN AND NEAR THE GULF ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO
THE RANGE OF 8-12 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THU AFTERNOON
BEFORE SUBSIDING TO AROUND 9 FT BY LATE THU. NE SWELLS FROM
PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO MERGE WITH THE SWELL FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N78W TO 06N85W TO 05N94W
WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDING TO 04N105W TO 07N114W TO 08N125W AND TO 08N140W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG OR NEAR THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING...NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THE MAIN
FEATURE NOTED. IT STRETCHES FROM NEAR 32N130W TO 23N129W TO
16N127W AND TO 09N122W. A SOUTHERLY JET STREAM BRANCH ON THE E
SIDE OF THE TROUGH HAS MAX WINDS OF 80-100 KT. THIS IS HELPING
TO ADVECT ABUNDANT UPPER MOISTURE...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MID AND UPPER CLOUDS NNE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND W CENTRAL MEXICO. UNDERNEATH THIS MOISTURE
...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N-
28N E OF THE TROUGH TO 110W. A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH
IS ANALYZED FROM 16N122W TO 11N123W. LIGHTNING DENSITY DATA
INDICATES MULTIPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN THE MENTIONED
ACTIVITY FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 119W-123W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24N-48 HRS WITH
THE CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE TO ITS E GRADUALLY SPREADING OVER
MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF MEXICO N OF
ABOUT 18N. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRES OF 1023 MB IS CENTERED NEAR
35N124W MOVING NW 10 KT. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SE TO
15N118W AND TO NEAR 18N116W. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N135W
TO 15N138W.

GAP WINDS...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
PAPAGAYO GALE EVENTS.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS RESULTING IN STRONG N WINDS TO FUNNEL SWD
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH AS FAR S AS 04N BY LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 10 FT...AND LAST THROUGH WED AFTERNOON BEFORE
SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY THU NIGHT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A TROUGH JUST W
OF MEXICO ALONG 106W FROM 16N-19N AND HIGH PRES RIDGING JUST W
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS
OFFSHORE OF THE SE TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS
BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE AGAIN FROM 22N-25N
BETWEEN 108W-110W BY LATE THU NIGHT AS RIDGING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS STRENGTHENS.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281005
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-45 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
SHIP "C6FR3" NEAR 15N94W REPORTED NE WINDS AT 43 KT AT 04 AND 06
UTC. THE GALE WINDS HAVE RAISED THE SEAS IN THE GULF TO THE
RANGE OF 11-18 FT. NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM
FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG
PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING
IN A LARGE AREA OF SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 91W AND
105W...ALSO FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W AND FROM 07N
TO 19N BETWEEN 110W AND 124W. FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THIS AREA ARE ALSO HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE SEAS HIGH.
MOST RECENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS REVEALS A COOL
POCKET OF WATERS OVER A PORTION OF THE GULF AS WELL AS
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF TO NEAR 13N BETWEEN 94W-97W DUE TO
UPWELLING EFFECTS.

HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE
ASSOCIATED CULPRIT TIGHT PRES RIDGING STRETCHING SEWD ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
THU. THE GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO AROUND 14 FT AND TO 12 FT THU NIGHT. THE WINDS
THEN INCREASE SOME THU NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRI AS THE RIDGING
BECOMES REINFORCED BY ANOTHER RIDGE THAT BUILDS S OVER THE FAR
WESTERN GULF AND EASTERN MEXICO TERRAIN. SEAS IN THE GULF ARE
FORECAST BY THE TAFB/NWPS GUIDANCE TO BUILD TO BACK TO 14 FT ON
FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
BEHIND A SHEAR LINE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 10N WILL
ALLOW FOR NE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO
INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND
PULSE BACK TO GALE FORCE WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF DRAINAGE FLOW
OFF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
THROUGH THU. SEAS IN AND NEAR THE GULF ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO
THE RANGE OF 8-12 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THU AFTERNOON
BEFORE SUBSIDING TO AROUND 9 FT BY LATE THU. NE SWELLS FROM
PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO MERGE WITH THE SWELL FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N78W TO 06N85W TO 05N94W
WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDING TO 04N105W TO 07N114W TO 08N125W AND TO 08N140W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NOTE ALONG OR NEAR THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING...NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THE MAIN
FEATURE NOTED. IT STRETCHES FROM NEAR 32N130W TO 23N129W TO
16N127W AND TO 09N122W. A SOUTHERLY JET STREAM BRANCH ON THE E
SIDE OF THE TROUGH HAS MAX WINDS OF 80-100 KT. THIS IS HELPING
TO ADVECT ABUNDANT UPPER MOISTURE...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MID AND UPPER CLOUDS NNE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND W CENTRAL MEXICO. UNDERNEATH THIS MOISTURE
...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N-
28N E OF THE TROUGH TO 110W. A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH
IS ANALYZED FROM 16N122W TO 11N123W. LIGHTNING DENSITY DATA
INDICATES MULTIPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN THE MENTIONED
ACTIVITY FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 119W-123W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24N-48 HRS WITH
THE CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE TO ITS E GRADUALLY SPREADING OVER
MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF MEXICO N OF
ABOUT 18N. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRES OF 1023 MB IS CENTERED NEAR
35N124W MOVING NW 10 KT. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SE TO
15N118W AND TO NEAR 18N116W. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N135W
TO 15N138W.

GAP WINDS...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
PAPAGAYO GALE EVENTS.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS RESULTING IN STRONG N WINDS TO FUNNEL SWD
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH AS FAR S AS 04N BY LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 10 FT...AND LAST THROUGH WED AFTERNOON BEFORE
SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY THU NIGHT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A TROUGH JUST W
OF MEXICO ALONG 106W FROM 16N-19N AND HIGH PRES RIDGING JUST W
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS
OFFSHORE OF THE SE TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS
BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE AGAIN FROM 22N-25N
BETWEEN 108W-110W BY LATE THU NIGHT AS RIDGING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS STRENGTHENS.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281005
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-45 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
SHIP "C6FR3" NEAR 15N94W REPORTED NE WINDS AT 43 KT AT 04 AND 06
UTC. THE GALE WINDS HAVE RAISED THE SEAS IN THE GULF TO THE
RANGE OF 11-18 FT. NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM
FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG
PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING
IN A LARGE AREA OF SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 91W AND
105W...ALSO FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W AND FROM 07N
TO 19N BETWEEN 110W AND 124W. FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THIS AREA ARE ALSO HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE SEAS HIGH.
MOST RECENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS REVEALS A COOL
POCKET OF WATERS OVER A PORTION OF THE GULF AS WELL AS
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF TO NEAR 13N BETWEEN 94W-97W DUE TO
UPWELLING EFFECTS.

HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE
ASSOCIATED CULPRIT TIGHT PRES RIDGING STRETCHING SEWD ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
THU. THE GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO AROUND 14 FT AND TO 12 FT THU NIGHT. THE WINDS
THEN INCREASE SOME THU NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRI AS THE RIDGING
BECOMES REINFORCED BY ANOTHER RIDGE THAT BUILDS S OVER THE FAR
WESTERN GULF AND EASTERN MEXICO TERRAIN. SEAS IN THE GULF ARE
FORECAST BY THE TAFB/NWPS GUIDANCE TO BUILD TO BACK TO 14 FT ON
FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
BEHIND A SHEAR LINE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 10N WILL
ALLOW FOR NE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO
INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND
PULSE BACK TO GALE FORCE WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF DRAINAGE FLOW
OFF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
THROUGH THU. SEAS IN AND NEAR THE GULF ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO
THE RANGE OF 8-12 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THU AFTERNOON
BEFORE SUBSIDING TO AROUND 9 FT BY LATE THU. NE SWELLS FROM
PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO MERGE WITH THE SWELL FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N78W TO 06N85W TO 05N94W
WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDING TO 04N105W TO 07N114W TO 08N125W AND TO 08N140W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NOTE ALONG OR NEAR THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING...NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THE MAIN
FEATURE NOTED. IT STRETCHES FROM NEAR 32N130W TO 23N129W TO
16N127W AND TO 09N122W. A SOUTHERLY JET STREAM BRANCH ON THE E
SIDE OF THE TROUGH HAS MAX WINDS OF 80-100 KT. THIS IS HELPING
TO ADVECT ABUNDANT UPPER MOISTURE...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MID AND UPPER CLOUDS NNE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND W CENTRAL MEXICO. UNDERNEATH THIS MOISTURE
...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N-
28N E OF THE TROUGH TO 110W. A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH
IS ANALYZED FROM 16N122W TO 11N123W. LIGHTNING DENSITY DATA
INDICATES MULTIPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN THE MENTIONED
ACTIVITY FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 119W-123W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24N-48 HRS WITH
THE CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE TO ITS E GRADUALLY SPREADING OVER
MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF MEXICO N OF
ABOUT 18N. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRES OF 1023 MB IS CENTERED NEAR
35N124W MOVING NW 10 KT. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SE TO
15N118W AND TO NEAR 18N116W. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N135W
TO 15N138W.

GAP WINDS...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
PAPAGAYO GALE EVENTS.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS RESULTING IN STRONG N WINDS TO FUNNEL SWD
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH AS FAR S AS 04N BY LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 10 FT...AND LAST THROUGH WED AFTERNOON BEFORE
SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY THU NIGHT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A TROUGH JUST W
OF MEXICO ALONG 106W FROM 16N-19N AND HIGH PRES RIDGING JUST W
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS
OFFSHORE OF THE SE TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS
BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE AGAIN FROM 22N-25N
BETWEEN 108W-110W BY LATE THU NIGHT AS RIDGING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS STRENGTHENS.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281005
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-45 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
SHIP "C6FR3" NEAR 15N94W REPORTED NE WINDS AT 43 KT AT 04 AND 06
UTC. THE GALE WINDS HAVE RAISED THE SEAS IN THE GULF TO THE
RANGE OF 11-18 FT. NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM
FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG
PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING
IN A LARGE AREA OF SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 91W AND
105W...ALSO FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W AND FROM 07N
TO 19N BETWEEN 110W AND 124W. FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THIS AREA ARE ALSO HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE SEAS HIGH.
MOST RECENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS REVEALS A COOL
POCKET OF WATERS OVER A PORTION OF THE GULF AS WELL AS
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF TO NEAR 13N BETWEEN 94W-97W DUE TO
UPWELLING EFFECTS.

HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE
ASSOCIATED CULPRIT TIGHT PRES RIDGING STRETCHING SEWD ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
THU. THE GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO AROUND 14 FT AND TO 12 FT THU NIGHT. THE WINDS
THEN INCREASE SOME THU NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRI AS THE RIDGING
BECOMES REINFORCED BY ANOTHER RIDGE THAT BUILDS S OVER THE FAR
WESTERN GULF AND EASTERN MEXICO TERRAIN. SEAS IN THE GULF ARE
FORECAST BY THE TAFB/NWPS GUIDANCE TO BUILD TO BACK TO 14 FT ON
FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
BEHIND A SHEAR LINE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 10N WILL
ALLOW FOR NE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO
INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND
PULSE BACK TO GALE FORCE WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF DRAINAGE FLOW
OFF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
THROUGH THU. SEAS IN AND NEAR THE GULF ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO
THE RANGE OF 8-12 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THU AFTERNOON
BEFORE SUBSIDING TO AROUND 9 FT BY LATE THU. NE SWELLS FROM
PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO MERGE WITH THE SWELL FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N78W TO 06N85W TO 05N94W
WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDING TO 04N105W TO 07N114W TO 08N125W AND TO 08N140W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NOTE ALONG OR NEAR THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING...NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THE MAIN
FEATURE NOTED. IT STRETCHES FROM NEAR 32N130W TO 23N129W TO
16N127W AND TO 09N122W. A SOUTHERLY JET STREAM BRANCH ON THE E
SIDE OF THE TROUGH HAS MAX WINDS OF 80-100 KT. THIS IS HELPING
TO ADVECT ABUNDANT UPPER MOISTURE...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MID AND UPPER CLOUDS NNE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND W CENTRAL MEXICO. UNDERNEATH THIS MOISTURE
...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N-
28N E OF THE TROUGH TO 110W. A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH
IS ANALYZED FROM 16N122W TO 11N123W. LIGHTNING DENSITY DATA
INDICATES MULTIPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN THE MENTIONED
ACTIVITY FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 119W-123W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24N-48 HRS WITH
THE CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE TO ITS E GRADUALLY SPREADING OVER
MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF MEXICO N OF
ABOUT 18N. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRES OF 1023 MB IS CENTERED NEAR
35N124W MOVING NW 10 KT. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SE TO
15N118W AND TO NEAR 18N116W. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N135W
TO 15N138W.

GAP WINDS...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
PAPAGAYO GALE EVENTS.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS RESULTING IN STRONG N WINDS TO FUNNEL SWD
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH AS FAR S AS 04N BY LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 10 FT...AND LAST THROUGH WED AFTERNOON BEFORE
SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY THU NIGHT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A TROUGH JUST W
OF MEXICO ALONG 106W FROM 16N-19N AND HIGH PRES RIDGING JUST W
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS
OFFSHORE OF THE SE TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS
BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE AGAIN FROM 22N-25N
BETWEEN 108W-110W BY LATE THU NIGHT AS RIDGING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS STRENGTHENS.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281005
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-45 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
SHIP "C6FR3" NEAR 15N94W REPORTED NE WINDS AT 43 KT AT 04 AND 06
UTC. THE GALE WINDS HAVE RAISED THE SEAS IN THE GULF TO THE
RANGE OF 11-18 FT. NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM
FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG
PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING
IN A LARGE AREA OF SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 91W AND
105W...ALSO FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W AND FROM 07N
TO 19N BETWEEN 110W AND 124W. FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THIS AREA ARE ALSO HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE SEAS HIGH.
MOST RECENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS REVEALS A COOL
POCKET OF WATERS OVER A PORTION OF THE GULF AS WELL AS
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF TO NEAR 13N BETWEEN 94W-97W DUE TO
UPWELLING EFFECTS.

HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE
ASSOCIATED CULPRIT TIGHT PRES RIDGING STRETCHING SEWD ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
THU. THE GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO AROUND 14 FT AND TO 12 FT THU NIGHT. THE WINDS
THEN INCREASE SOME THU NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRI AS THE RIDGING
BECOMES REINFORCED BY ANOTHER RIDGE THAT BUILDS S OVER THE FAR
WESTERN GULF AND EASTERN MEXICO TERRAIN. SEAS IN THE GULF ARE
FORECAST BY THE TAFB/NWPS GUIDANCE TO BUILD TO BACK TO 14 FT ON
FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
BEHIND A SHEAR LINE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 10N WILL
ALLOW FOR NE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO
INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND
PULSE BACK TO GALE FORCE WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF DRAINAGE FLOW
OFF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
THROUGH THU. SEAS IN AND NEAR THE GULF ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO
THE RANGE OF 8-12 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THU AFTERNOON
BEFORE SUBSIDING TO AROUND 9 FT BY LATE THU. NE SWELLS FROM
PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO MERGE WITH THE SWELL FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N78W TO 06N85W TO 05N94W
WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDING TO 04N105W TO 07N114W TO 08N125W AND TO 08N140W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NOTE ALONG OR NEAR THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING...NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THE MAIN
FEATURE NOTED. IT STRETCHES FROM NEAR 32N130W TO 23N129W TO
16N127W AND TO 09N122W. A SOUTHERLY JET STREAM BRANCH ON THE E
SIDE OF THE TROUGH HAS MAX WINDS OF 80-100 KT. THIS IS HELPING
TO ADVECT ABUNDANT UPPER MOISTURE...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MID AND UPPER CLOUDS NNE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND W CENTRAL MEXICO. UNDERNEATH THIS MOISTURE
...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N-
28N E OF THE TROUGH TO 110W. A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH
IS ANALYZED FROM 16N122W TO 11N123W. LIGHTNING DENSITY DATA
INDICATES MULTIPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN THE MENTIONED
ACTIVITY FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 119W-123W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24N-48 HRS WITH
THE CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE TO ITS E GRADUALLY SPREADING OVER
MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF MEXICO N OF
ABOUT 18N. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRES OF 1023 MB IS CENTERED NEAR
35N124W MOVING NW 10 KT. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SE TO
15N118W AND TO NEAR 18N116W. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N135W
TO 15N138W.

GAP WINDS...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
PAPAGAYO GALE EVENTS.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS RESULTING IN STRONG N WINDS TO FUNNEL SWD
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH AS FAR S AS 04N BY LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 10 FT...AND LAST THROUGH WED AFTERNOON BEFORE
SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY THU NIGHT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A TROUGH JUST W
OF MEXICO ALONG 106W FROM 16N-19N AND HIGH PRES RIDGING JUST W
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS
OFFSHORE OF THE SE TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS
BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE AGAIN FROM 22N-25N
BETWEEN 108W-110W BY LATE THU NIGHT AS RIDGING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS STRENGTHENS.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281005
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-45 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
SHIP "C6FR3" NEAR 15N94W REPORTED NE WINDS AT 43 KT AT 04 AND 06
UTC. THE GALE WINDS HAVE RAISED THE SEAS IN THE GULF TO THE
RANGE OF 11-18 FT. NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM
FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG
PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING
IN A LARGE AREA OF SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 91W AND
105W...ALSO FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W AND FROM 07N
TO 19N BETWEEN 110W AND 124W. FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THIS AREA ARE ALSO HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE SEAS HIGH.
MOST RECENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS REVEALS A COOL
POCKET OF WATERS OVER A PORTION OF THE GULF AS WELL AS
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF TO NEAR 13N BETWEEN 94W-97W DUE TO
UPWELLING EFFECTS.

HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE
ASSOCIATED CULPRIT TIGHT PRES RIDGING STRETCHING SEWD ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
THU. THE GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO AROUND 14 FT AND TO 12 FT THU NIGHT. THE WINDS
THEN INCREASE SOME THU NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRI AS THE RIDGING
BECOMES REINFORCED BY ANOTHER RIDGE THAT BUILDS S OVER THE FAR
WESTERN GULF AND EASTERN MEXICO TERRAIN. SEAS IN THE GULF ARE
FORECAST BY THE TAFB/NWPS GUIDANCE TO BUILD TO BACK TO 14 FT ON
FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
BEHIND A SHEAR LINE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 10N WILL
ALLOW FOR NE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO
INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND
PULSE BACK TO GALE FORCE WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF DRAINAGE FLOW
OFF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
THROUGH THU. SEAS IN AND NEAR THE GULF ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO
THE RANGE OF 8-12 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THU AFTERNOON
BEFORE SUBSIDING TO AROUND 9 FT BY LATE THU. NE SWELLS FROM
PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO MERGE WITH THE SWELL FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N78W TO 06N85W TO 05N94W
WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDING TO 04N105W TO 07N114W TO 08N125W AND TO 08N140W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NOTE ALONG OR NEAR THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING...NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THE MAIN
FEATURE NOTED. IT STRETCHES FROM NEAR 32N130W TO 23N129W TO
16N127W AND TO 09N122W. A SOUTHERLY JET STREAM BRANCH ON THE E
SIDE OF THE TROUGH HAS MAX WINDS OF 80-100 KT. THIS IS HELPING
TO ADVECT ABUNDANT UPPER MOISTURE...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MID AND UPPER CLOUDS NNE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND W CENTRAL MEXICO. UNDERNEATH THIS MOISTURE
...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N-
28N E OF THE TROUGH TO 110W. A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH
IS ANALYZED FROM 16N122W TO 11N123W. LIGHTNING DENSITY DATA
INDICATES MULTIPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN THE MENTIONED
ACTIVITY FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 119W-123W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24N-48 HRS WITH
THE CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE TO ITS E GRADUALLY SPREADING OVER
MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF MEXICO N OF
ABOUT 18N. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRES OF 1023 MB IS CENTERED NEAR
35N124W MOVING NW 10 KT. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SE TO
15N118W AND TO NEAR 18N116W. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N135W
TO 15N138W.

GAP WINDS...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
PAPAGAYO GALE EVENTS.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS RESULTING IN STRONG N WINDS TO FUNNEL SWD
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH AS FAR S AS 04N BY LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 10 FT...AND LAST THROUGH WED AFTERNOON BEFORE
SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY THU NIGHT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A TROUGH JUST W
OF MEXICO ALONG 106W FROM 16N-19N AND HIGH PRES RIDGING JUST W
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS
OFFSHORE OF THE SE TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS
BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE AGAIN FROM 22N-25N
BETWEEN 108W-110W BY LATE THU NIGHT AS RIDGING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS STRENGTHENS.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281005
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-45 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
SHIP "C6FR3" NEAR 15N94W REPORTED NE WINDS AT 43 KT AT 04 AND 06
UTC. THE GALE WINDS HAVE RAISED THE SEAS IN THE GULF TO THE
RANGE OF 11-18 FT. NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM
FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG
PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING
IN A LARGE AREA OF SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 91W AND
105W...ALSO FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W AND FROM 07N
TO 19N BETWEEN 110W AND 124W. FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THIS AREA ARE ALSO HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE SEAS HIGH.
MOST RECENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS REVEALS A COOL
POCKET OF WATERS OVER A PORTION OF THE GULF AS WELL AS
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF TO NEAR 13N BETWEEN 94W-97W DUE TO
UPWELLING EFFECTS.

HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE
ASSOCIATED CULPRIT TIGHT PRES RIDGING STRETCHING SEWD ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
THU. THE GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO AROUND 14 FT AND TO 12 FT THU NIGHT. THE WINDS
THEN INCREASE SOME THU NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRI AS THE RIDGING
BECOMES REINFORCED BY ANOTHER RIDGE THAT BUILDS S OVER THE FAR
WESTERN GULF AND EASTERN MEXICO TERRAIN. SEAS IN THE GULF ARE
FORECAST BY THE TAFB/NWPS GUIDANCE TO BUILD TO BACK TO 14 FT ON
FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
BEHIND A SHEAR LINE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 10N WILL
ALLOW FOR NE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO
INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND
PULSE BACK TO GALE FORCE WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF DRAINAGE FLOW
OFF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
THROUGH THU. SEAS IN AND NEAR THE GULF ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO
THE RANGE OF 8-12 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THU AFTERNOON
BEFORE SUBSIDING TO AROUND 9 FT BY LATE THU. NE SWELLS FROM
PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO MERGE WITH THE SWELL FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N78W TO 06N85W TO 05N94W
WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDING TO 04N105W TO 07N114W TO 08N125W AND TO 08N140W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NOTE ALONG OR NEAR THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING...NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THE MAIN
FEATURE NOTED. IT STRETCHES FROM NEAR 32N130W TO 23N129W TO
16N127W AND TO 09N122W. A SOUTHERLY JET STREAM BRANCH ON THE E
SIDE OF THE TROUGH HAS MAX WINDS OF 80-100 KT. THIS IS HELPING
TO ADVECT ABUNDANT UPPER MOISTURE...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MID AND UPPER CLOUDS NNE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND W CENTRAL MEXICO. UNDERNEATH THIS MOISTURE
...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N-
28N E OF THE TROUGH TO 110W. A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH
IS ANALYZED FROM 16N122W TO 11N123W. LIGHTNING DENSITY DATA
INDICATES MULTIPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN THE MENTIONED
ACTIVITY FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 119W-123W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24N-48 HRS WITH
THE CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE TO ITS E GRADUALLY SPREADING OVER
MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF MEXICO N OF
ABOUT 18N. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRES OF 1023 MB IS CENTERED NEAR
35N124W MOVING NW 10 KT. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SE TO
15N118W AND TO NEAR 18N116W. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N135W
TO 15N138W.

GAP WINDS...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
PAPAGAYO GALE EVENTS.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS RESULTING IN STRONG N WINDS TO FUNNEL SWD
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH AS FAR S AS 04N BY LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 10 FT...AND LAST THROUGH WED AFTERNOON BEFORE
SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY THU NIGHT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A TROUGH JUST W
OF MEXICO ALONG 106W FROM 16N-19N AND HIGH PRES RIDGING JUST W
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS
OFFSHORE OF THE SE TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS
BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE AGAIN FROM 22N-25N
BETWEEN 108W-110W BY LATE THU NIGHT AS RIDGING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS STRENGTHENS.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 28N BETWEEN 67W-76W ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE EARLY
THIS MORNING. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 07N12W TO 02N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 02N36W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 14W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND OVER W
ATLANTIC AND INTO THE FAR NE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT IS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM MEXICO INTO THE PLAIN STATES GIVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N95W.
LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATING THE BASIN THIS EVENING. A GENTLE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS W OF 90W WHILE A GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW IS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA E OF 90W. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER
THE W GULF WILL DRIFT E AND NE BEFORE DISSIPATING. A HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SE CONUS WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN AFTER THAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS S FROM THE FRONT THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN 19N74W TO 11N82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SHEARLINE AFFECTING THE ADJACENT WATERS W OF HAITI...E OF
JAMAICA AND N OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM 19N68W TO 16N71W WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION AFFECTING LA MONA PASSAGE AND DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
ANCHORED OVER COLOMBIA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN AND S CENTRAL ATLANTIC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF THE SHEAR
LINE WHICH KEEPS THE AREA UNDER A FAIR WEATHER REGIME. SLIGHT TO
GENTLE TRADES PREVAIL E OF THE SHEAR LINE WHILE GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS W OF THE SHEARLINE. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO WEAKEN. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST NEAR THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
A COLD FRONT W OF THE ISLAND AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER E
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA ENHANCING CONVECTION AS THE FRONT
AND TROUGH MERGE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND STALL.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO OVER THE
W ATLANTIC AND THE FAR NE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A PAIR OF
COLD FRONTS. THE FIRST ONE EXTENDS FROM 30N74W TO 40N63W. THE
SECOND FRONT EXTENDS FROM 20N73W TO 31N61W. LATEST SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS GALE FORCE WINDS BETWEEN THESE FRONTS THEREFORE A
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. FOR MORE INFORMATION
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. TO THE E OF
THE FRONTS...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 19N69W TO 27N62W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 23N BETWEEN 57W-66W. THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A 1043 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 39N29W. THE REFLECTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED AS
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 20N32W TO 27N34W. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO MERGE WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND STALL. THE COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS ONE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING E MERGING WITH THE STALLED FRONT IN 48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 28N BETWEEN 67W-76W ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE EARLY
THIS MORNING. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 07N12W TO 02N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 02N36W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 14W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND OVER W
ATLANTIC AND INTO THE FAR NE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT IS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM MEXICO INTO THE PLAIN STATES GIVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N95W.
LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATING THE BASIN THIS EVENING. A GENTLE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS W OF 90W WHILE A GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW IS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA E OF 90W. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER
THE W GULF WILL DRIFT E AND NE BEFORE DISSIPATING. A HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SE CONUS WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN AFTER THAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS S FROM THE FRONT THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN 19N74W TO 11N82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SHEARLINE AFFECTING THE ADJACENT WATERS W OF HAITI...E OF
JAMAICA AND N OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM 19N68W TO 16N71W WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION AFFECTING LA MONA PASSAGE AND DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
ANCHORED OVER COLOMBIA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN AND S CENTRAL ATLANTIC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF THE SHEAR
LINE WHICH KEEPS THE AREA UNDER A FAIR WEATHER REGIME. SLIGHT TO
GENTLE TRADES PREVAIL E OF THE SHEAR LINE WHILE GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS W OF THE SHEARLINE. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO WEAKEN. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST NEAR THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
A COLD FRONT W OF THE ISLAND AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER E
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA ENHANCING CONVECTION AS THE FRONT
AND TROUGH MERGE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND STALL.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO OVER THE
W ATLANTIC AND THE FAR NE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A PAIR OF
COLD FRONTS. THE FIRST ONE EXTENDS FROM 30N74W TO 40N63W. THE
SECOND FRONT EXTENDS FROM 20N73W TO 31N61W. LATEST SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS GALE FORCE WINDS BETWEEN THESE FRONTS THEREFORE A
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. FOR MORE INFORMATION
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. TO THE E OF
THE FRONTS...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 19N69W TO 27N62W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 23N BETWEEN 57W-66W. THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A 1043 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 39N29W. THE REFLECTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED AS
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 20N32W TO 27N34W. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO MERGE WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND STALL. THE COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS ONE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING E MERGING WITH THE STALLED FRONT IN 48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280259
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
SEAS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REMAIN IN THE 11-17 FT
RANGE UNTIL THU AFTERNOON. NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED
DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING
WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS
RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 04N TO 14N
BETWEEN 94W AND 120W AND FROM 08N TO 19N BETWEEN 114W AND 124W.
FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS AREA ARE ALSO
HELPING TO KEEP SEAS HIGH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO CAUSING THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THU. THE GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH THU
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT...BUT SHOULD INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE
STRENGTH AGAIN OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 10N. NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS EVENING AND INCREASE TO
MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY EARLY WED MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BELOW GALE FORCE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND PULSE BACK TO GALE
FORCE WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINS IN
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THU. NE SWELL
FROM PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO MERGE WITH THE SWELL FROM THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 02N78W TO 05N85W TO
04N97W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N97W TO 04N105W TO
09N138W TO 08N140W. THERE WAS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION
DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING...NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES FROM
32N128W TO 10N120W WITH A 100 KT SOUTHERLY JET ON THE E SIDE OF
THE TROUGH PROPELLING UPPER MOISTURE INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH LIES FROM 20N133W
TO 16N136W. INFRARED IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION LIES E OF THE TROUGH FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN
120W AND 130W...WITHIN THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT E...WITH THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THU.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PANAMA...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL SEND A SURGE OF NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE GULF
OF PANAMA. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE GULF OF PANAMA LATER TONIGHT. FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH AS FAR S AS 04N OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 10 FT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE OF THE SE TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
BEGINNING WED MORNING. THESE WINDS SHOULD BE MOST WIDESPREAD IN
THE MORNING HOURS WHEN THEY ARE ENHANCED BY DRAINAGE FLOW OFF
THE LAND.

$$
SCHAUER



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280259
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
SEAS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REMAIN IN THE 11-17 FT
RANGE UNTIL THU AFTERNOON. NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED
DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING
WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS
RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 04N TO 14N
BETWEEN 94W AND 120W AND FROM 08N TO 19N BETWEEN 114W AND 124W.
FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS AREA ARE ALSO
HELPING TO KEEP SEAS HIGH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO CAUSING THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THU. THE GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH THU
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT...BUT SHOULD INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE
STRENGTH AGAIN OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 10N. NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS EVENING AND INCREASE TO
MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY EARLY WED MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BELOW GALE FORCE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND PULSE BACK TO GALE
FORCE WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINS IN
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THU. NE SWELL
FROM PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO MERGE WITH THE SWELL FROM THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 02N78W TO 05N85W TO
04N97W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N97W TO 04N105W TO
09N138W TO 08N140W. THERE WAS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION
DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING...NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES FROM
32N128W TO 10N120W WITH A 100 KT SOUTHERLY JET ON THE E SIDE OF
THE TROUGH PROPELLING UPPER MOISTURE INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH LIES FROM 20N133W
TO 16N136W. INFRARED IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION LIES E OF THE TROUGH FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN
120W AND 130W...WITHIN THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT E...WITH THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THU.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PANAMA...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL SEND A SURGE OF NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE GULF
OF PANAMA. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE GULF OF PANAMA LATER TONIGHT. FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH AS FAR S AS 04N OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 10 FT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE OF THE SE TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
BEGINNING WED MORNING. THESE WINDS SHOULD BE MOST WIDESPREAD IN
THE MORNING HOURS WHEN THEY ARE ENHANCED BY DRAINAGE FLOW OFF
THE LAND.

$$
SCHAUER



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280259
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
SEAS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REMAIN IN THE 11-17 FT
RANGE UNTIL THU AFTERNOON. NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED
DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING
WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS
RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 04N TO 14N
BETWEEN 94W AND 120W AND FROM 08N TO 19N BETWEEN 114W AND 124W.
FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS AREA ARE ALSO
HELPING TO KEEP SEAS HIGH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO CAUSING THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THU. THE GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH THU
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT...BUT SHOULD INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE
STRENGTH AGAIN OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 10N. NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS EVENING AND INCREASE TO
MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY EARLY WED MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BELOW GALE FORCE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND PULSE BACK TO GALE
FORCE WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINS IN
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THU. NE SWELL
FROM PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO MERGE WITH THE SWELL FROM THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 02N78W TO 05N85W TO
04N97W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N97W TO 04N105W TO
09N138W TO 08N140W. THERE WAS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION
DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING...NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES FROM
32N128W TO 10N120W WITH A 100 KT SOUTHERLY JET ON THE E SIDE OF
THE TROUGH PROPELLING UPPER MOISTURE INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH LIES FROM 20N133W
TO 16N136W. INFRARED IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION LIES E OF THE TROUGH FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN
120W AND 130W...WITHIN THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT E...WITH THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THU.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PANAMA...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL SEND A SURGE OF NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE GULF
OF PANAMA. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE GULF OF PANAMA LATER TONIGHT. FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH AS FAR S AS 04N OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 10 FT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE OF THE SE TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
BEGINNING WED MORNING. THESE WINDS SHOULD BE MOST WIDESPREAD IN
THE MORNING HOURS WHEN THEY ARE ENHANCED BY DRAINAGE FLOW OFF
THE LAND.

$$
SCHAUER



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280259
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
SEAS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REMAIN IN THE 11-17 FT
RANGE UNTIL THU AFTERNOON. NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED
DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING
WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS
RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 04N TO 14N
BETWEEN 94W AND 120W AND FROM 08N TO 19N BETWEEN 114W AND 124W.
FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS AREA ARE ALSO
HELPING TO KEEP SEAS HIGH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO CAUSING THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THU. THE GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH THU
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT...BUT SHOULD INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE
STRENGTH AGAIN OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 10N. NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS EVENING AND INCREASE TO
MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY EARLY WED MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BELOW GALE FORCE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND PULSE BACK TO GALE
FORCE WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINS IN
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THU. NE SWELL
FROM PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO MERGE WITH THE SWELL FROM THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 02N78W TO 05N85W TO
04N97W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N97W TO 04N105W TO
09N138W TO 08N140W. THERE WAS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION
DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING...NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES FROM
32N128W TO 10N120W WITH A 100 KT SOUTHERLY JET ON THE E SIDE OF
THE TROUGH PROPELLING UPPER MOISTURE INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH LIES FROM 20N133W
TO 16N136W. INFRARED IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION LIES E OF THE TROUGH FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN
120W AND 130W...WITHIN THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT E...WITH THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THU.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PANAMA...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL SEND A SURGE OF NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE GULF
OF PANAMA. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE GULF OF PANAMA LATER TONIGHT. FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH AS FAR S AS 04N OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 10 FT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE OF THE SE TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
BEGINNING WED MORNING. THESE WINDS SHOULD BE MOST WIDESPREAD IN
THE MORNING HOURS WHEN THEY ARE ENHANCED BY DRAINAGE FLOW OFF
THE LAND.

$$
SCHAUER



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280259
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
SEAS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REMAIN IN THE 11-17 FT
RANGE UNTIL THU AFTERNOON. NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED
DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING
WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS
RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 04N TO 14N
BETWEEN 94W AND 120W AND FROM 08N TO 19N BETWEEN 114W AND 124W.
FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS AREA ARE ALSO
HELPING TO KEEP SEAS HIGH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO CAUSING THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THU. THE GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH THU
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT...BUT SHOULD INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE
STRENGTH AGAIN OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 10N. NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS EVENING AND INCREASE TO
MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY EARLY WED MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BELOW GALE FORCE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND PULSE BACK TO GALE
FORCE WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINS IN
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THU. NE SWELL
FROM PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO MERGE WITH THE SWELL FROM THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 02N78W TO 05N85W TO
04N97W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N97W TO 04N105W TO
09N138W TO 08N140W. THERE WAS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION
DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING...NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES FROM
32N128W TO 10N120W WITH A 100 KT SOUTHERLY JET ON THE E SIDE OF
THE TROUGH PROPELLING UPPER MOISTURE INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH LIES FROM 20N133W
TO 16N136W. INFRARED IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION LIES E OF THE TROUGH FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN
120W AND 130W...WITHIN THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT E...WITH THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THU.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PANAMA...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL SEND A SURGE OF NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE GULF
OF PANAMA. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE GULF OF PANAMA LATER TONIGHT. FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH AS FAR S AS 04N OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 10 FT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE OF THE SE TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
BEGINNING WED MORNING. THESE WINDS SHOULD BE MOST WIDESPREAD IN
THE MORNING HOURS WHEN THEY ARE ENHANCED BY DRAINAGE FLOW OFF
THE LAND.

$$
SCHAUER


000
AXNT20 KNHC 272359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 28N BETWEEN 65W-72W ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N11W ALONG 2N16W TO 1N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N35W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 5N E OF 16W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN
30W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND OVER W ATLC AND
FAR NE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS IN THE W
ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. AN BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MEXICO
INTO THE PLAIN STATES GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF NEAR
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
NEAR 25N96W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWERS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATING THE GULF THIS
EVENING. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SE GULF
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT E AND NE THROUGH WED NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SE CONUS WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN WED THROUGH
THU. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE N GULF THU NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING ALONG 28N THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N75W THEN ACROSS JAMAICA TO THE
NE TIP OF NICARAGUA. A REMNANT SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N82W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE S OF 15N BETWEEN THE SHEAR LINE AND THE
COLD FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER
COLOMBIA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE OVER THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD
ISLANDS TO OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS
ARE N OF 15N BETWEEN 67W-70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...THE MONA
PASSAGE...AND HISPANIOLA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF THE SHEAR LINE LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA THROUGH
THU. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND LEE OF CUBA WED NIGHT LATE THROUGH THU NIGHT. FRESH
WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO
STRONG TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRI.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING DUE TO A
DYING FRONT IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THAT EXTENDS TO HISPANIOLA.
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DYING FRONT AND THE COLD FRONT
TO THE W WILL PERSIST AS THE DYING FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO
HISPANIOLA WILL MERGE WITH THE FRONT TO THE W TONIGHT THEN STALL
OVER THE AREA. A RE-ENFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W ATLC
LATER IN THE WEEK ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO OVER THE W ATLC
AND THE FAR NE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N61W ALONG 25N67W THEN ACROSS
THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE E TIP OF CUBA
NEAR 20N75W. A DYING COLD FRONT IS TO THE E EXTENDING THROUGH
32N59W ALONG 26N65W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND
THE DYING COLD FRONT N OF 23N AND WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE
DYING COLD FRONT N OF 23N. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT IS JUST N
OF THE AREA W OF 70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE ABOVE
FRONTS IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1042
MB HIGH N OF AZORES. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N32W TO 21N31W AND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING W NEAR 27N33W. THE W ATLC
COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE DYING FRONT OVERNIGHT. A RE-
ENFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE W THROUGH WED AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WED NIGHT. A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE CONUS WED AND WED NIGHT
THEN DRIFT SE THROUGH THE W ATLC THU INTO FRI WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OVER THE FAR W
ATLC FRI EXTENDING FROM 32N74W TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA BY LATE FRI.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272204
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THU AFTERNOON.
SEAS THERE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE IN THE 11-17 FT RANGE.
NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT  OVER
THE AREA FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 120W AND FROM 08N TO
19N BETWEEN 113W AND 124W. THE HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO CAUSING THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THU. WHEN THE GALE WINDS DIMINISH IN 48 HOURS...MAXIMUM
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 10-13 FT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WINDS
TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY EARLY THU MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING
FROM 9-12 FT AT THAT TIME. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY THU AFTERNOON. THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH
NE SWELL MERGING WITH THE AREA OF SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 07N78W TO 04N83W TO
05N90W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N90W TO 06N122W TO
08N132W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
WITH A 100-120 KT SOUTHERLY JET ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH
PROPELLING UPPER MOISTURE INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A
SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH LIES FROM 26N134W TO 20N131W
TO 16N134W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH
FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS E OF THE TROUGH WITH AXIS ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO N OF 15N. IN
THE DEEP TROPICS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 01N97W.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 24N140W.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALONG FRONT. SEAS TO 9 FT NW SWELL
LIE PRIMARILY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
TONIGHT...AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THE 8 FT.

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE GULF
OF PANAMA WILL BEGIN AGAIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THU...WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 10 FT.

$$
SCHAUER/DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272204 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THU AFTERNOON.
SEAS THERE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE IN THE 11-17 FT RANGE.
NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT  OVER
THE AREA FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 120W AND FROM 08N TO
19N BETWEEN 113W AND 124W. THE HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO CAUSING THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THU. WHEN THE GALE WINDS DIMINISH IN 48 HOURS...MAXIMUM
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 10-13 FT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WINDS
TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY EARLY THU MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING
FROM 9-12 FT AT THAT TIME. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY THU AFTERNOON. THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH
NE SWELL MERGING WITH THE AREA OF SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 07N78W TO 04N83W TO
05N90W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N90W TO 06N122W TO
08N132W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
WITH A 100-120 KT SOUTHERLY JET ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH
PROPELLING UPPER MOISTURE INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A
SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH LIES FROM 26N134W TO 20N131W
TO 16N134W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH
FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS E OF THE TROUGH WITH AXIS ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO N OF 15N. IN
THE DEEP TROPICS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 01N97W.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 24N140W.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALONG FRONT. SEAS TO 9 FT NW SWELL
LIE PRIMARILY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
TONIGHT...AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THE 8 FT.

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE GULF
OF PANAMA WILL BEGIN AGAIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THU...WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 10 FT.

$$
SCHAUER/DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272204 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THU AFTERNOON.
SEAS THERE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE IN THE 11-17 FT RANGE.
NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT  OVER
THE AREA FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 120W AND FROM 08N TO
19N BETWEEN 113W AND 124W. THE HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO CAUSING THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THU. WHEN THE GALE WINDS DIMINISH IN 48 HOURS...MAXIMUM
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 10-13 FT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WINDS
TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY EARLY THU MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING
FROM 9-12 FT AT THAT TIME. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY THU AFTERNOON. THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH
NE SWELL MERGING WITH THE AREA OF SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 07N78W TO 04N83W TO
05N90W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N90W TO 06N122W TO
08N132W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
WITH A 100-120 KT SOUTHERLY JET ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH
PROPELLING UPPER MOISTURE INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A
SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH LIES FROM 26N134W TO 20N131W
TO 16N134W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH
FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS E OF THE TROUGH WITH AXIS ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO N OF 15N. IN
THE DEEP TROPICS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 01N97W.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 24N140W.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALONG FRONT. SEAS TO 9 FT NW SWELL
LIE PRIMARILY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
TONIGHT...AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THE 8 FT.

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE GULF
OF PANAMA WILL BEGIN AGAIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THU...WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 10 FT.

$$
SCHAUER/DGS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 272015
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 28N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W ALONG A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO 21N76W. THIS
GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES E WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY LOCATED E OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT. SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 6N10W TO 2N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 2N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 3W-14W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 17W-
22W...AND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 28W-44W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 23N96W. 10-20 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER
THE GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF WITH SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER THE SE GULF. COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONT REMAINS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 85W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF E
OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF...TEXAS...AND
MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 100W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 21N76W TO 17N80W TO THE N
COAST OF HONDURAS AT 16N87W. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE EXTENDS
FROM HAITI AT 20N73W TO COSTA RICA AT 11N83W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF THE SHEAR LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HAITI. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 9N-17N W OF 79W TO INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA.
ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE TOP
OF A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY AND DISSIPATING.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE DUE TO PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY. FURTHER E...TRADEWINDS ARE
ADVECTING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
MORE SHOWERS OVER ALL OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
BOTH SOURCES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A GALE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N64W TO E CUBA AT 21N76W. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E EXTENDING FROM 31N61W TO
HAITI AT 20N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM
E OF THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT N OF 23N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 23N. A LARGE 1043 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE AZORES AT 40N24W. SURFACE RIDGING
IS N OF 20N E OF 50W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W SUPPORTING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEMS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED FURTHER E AT
27N30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO
MERGE WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 272015
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 28N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W ALONG A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO 21N76W. THIS
GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES E WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY LOCATED E OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT. SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 6N10W TO 2N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 2N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 3W-14W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 17W-
22W...AND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 28W-44W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 23N96W. 10-20 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER
THE GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF WITH SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER THE SE GULF. COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONT REMAINS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 85W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF E
OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF...TEXAS...AND
MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 100W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 21N76W TO 17N80W TO THE N
COAST OF HONDURAS AT 16N87W. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE EXTENDS
FROM HAITI AT 20N73W TO COSTA RICA AT 11N83W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF THE SHEAR LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HAITI. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 9N-17N W OF 79W TO INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA.
ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE TOP
OF A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY AND DISSIPATING.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE DUE TO PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY. FURTHER E...TRADEWINDS ARE
ADVECTING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
MORE SHOWERS OVER ALL OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
BOTH SOURCES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A GALE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N64W TO E CUBA AT 21N76W. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E EXTENDING FROM 31N61W TO
HAITI AT 20N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM
E OF THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT N OF 23N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 23N. A LARGE 1043 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE AZORES AT 40N24W. SURFACE RIDGING
IS N OF 20N E OF 50W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W SUPPORTING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEMS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED FURTHER E AT
27N30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO
MERGE WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 272015
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 28N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W ALONG A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO 21N76W. THIS
GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES E WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY LOCATED E OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT. SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 6N10W TO 2N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 2N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 3W-14W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 17W-
22W...AND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 28W-44W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 23N96W. 10-20 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER
THE GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF WITH SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER THE SE GULF. COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONT REMAINS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 85W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF E
OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF...TEXAS...AND
MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 100W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 21N76W TO 17N80W TO THE N
COAST OF HONDURAS AT 16N87W. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE EXTENDS
FROM HAITI AT 20N73W TO COSTA RICA AT 11N83W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF THE SHEAR LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HAITI. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 9N-17N W OF 79W TO INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA.
ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE TOP
OF A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY AND DISSIPATING.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE DUE TO PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY. FURTHER E...TRADEWINDS ARE
ADVECTING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
MORE SHOWERS OVER ALL OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
BOTH SOURCES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A GALE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N64W TO E CUBA AT 21N76W. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E EXTENDING FROM 31N61W TO
HAITI AT 20N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM
E OF THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT N OF 23N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 23N. A LARGE 1043 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE AZORES AT 40N24W. SURFACE RIDGING
IS N OF 20N E OF 50W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W SUPPORTING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEMS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED FURTHER E AT
27N30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO
MERGE WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 272015
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 28N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W ALONG A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO 21N76W. THIS
GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES E WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY LOCATED E OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT. SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 6N10W TO 2N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 2N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 3W-14W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 17W-
22W...AND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 28W-44W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 23N96W. 10-20 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER
THE GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF WITH SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER THE SE GULF. COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONT REMAINS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 85W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF E
OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF...TEXAS...AND
MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 100W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 21N76W TO 17N80W TO THE N
COAST OF HONDURAS AT 16N87W. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE EXTENDS
FROM HAITI AT 20N73W TO COSTA RICA AT 11N83W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF THE SHEAR LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HAITI. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 9N-17N W OF 79W TO INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA.
ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE TOP
OF A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY AND DISSIPATING.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE DUE TO PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY. FURTHER E...TRADEWINDS ARE
ADVECTING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
MORE SHOWERS OVER ALL OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
BOTH SOURCES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A GALE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N64W TO E CUBA AT 21N76W. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E EXTENDING FROM 31N61W TO
HAITI AT 20N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM
E OF THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT N OF 23N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 23N. A LARGE 1043 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE AZORES AT 40N24W. SURFACE RIDGING
IS N OF 20N E OF 50W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W SUPPORTING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEMS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED FURTHER E AT
27N30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO
MERGE WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 28N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W ALONG A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO 21N76W. THIS
GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES E WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY LOCATED E OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT. SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 6N10W TO 2N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 2N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 3W-14W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 17W-
22W...AND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 28W-44W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 23N96W. 10-20 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER
THE GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF WITH SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER THE SE GULF. COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONT REMAINS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 85W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF E
OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF...TEXAS...AND
MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 100W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 21N76W TO 17N80W TO THE N
COAST OF HONDURAS AT 16N87W. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE EXTENDS
FROM HAITI AT 20N73W TO COSTA RICA AT 11N83W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF THE SHEAR LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HAITI. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 9N-17N W OF 79W TO INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA.
ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE TOP
OF A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY AND DISSIPATING.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE DUE TO PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY. FURTHER E...TRADEWINDS ARE
ADVECTING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
MORE SHOWERS OVER ALL OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
BOTH SOURCES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A GALE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N64W TO E CUBA AT 21N76W. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E EXTENDING FROM 31N61W TO
HAITI AT 20N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM
E OF THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT N OF 23N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 23N. A LARGE 1043 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE AZORES AT 40N24W. SURFACE RIDGING
IS N OF 20N E OF 50W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W SUPPORTING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEMS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED FURTHER E AT
27N30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO
MERGE WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 28N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W ALONG A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO 21N76W. THIS
GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES E WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY LOCATED E OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT. SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 6N10W TO 2N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 2N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 3W-14W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 17W-
22W...AND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 28W-44W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 23N96W. 10-20 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER
THE GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF WITH SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER THE SE GULF. COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONT REMAINS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 85W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF E
OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF...TEXAS...AND
MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 100W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 21N76W TO 17N80W TO THE N
COAST OF HONDURAS AT 16N87W. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE EXTENDS
FROM HAITI AT 20N73W TO COSTA RICA AT 11N83W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF THE SHEAR LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HAITI. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 9N-17N W OF 79W TO INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA.
ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE TOP
OF A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY AND DISSIPATING.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE DUE TO PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY. FURTHER E...TRADEWINDS ARE
ADVECTING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
MORE SHOWERS OVER ALL OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
BOTH SOURCES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A GALE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N64W TO E CUBA AT 21N76W. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E EXTENDING FROM 31N61W TO
HAITI AT 20N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM
E OF THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT N OF 23N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 23N. A LARGE 1043 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE AZORES AT 40N24W. SURFACE RIDGING
IS N OF 20N E OF 50W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W SUPPORTING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEMS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED FURTHER E AT
27N30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO
MERGE WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 28N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W ALONG A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO 21N76W. THIS
GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES E WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY LOCATED E OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT. SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 6N10W TO 2N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 2N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 3W-14W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 17W-
22W...AND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 28W-44W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 23N96W. 10-20 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER
THE GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF WITH SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER THE SE GULF. COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONT REMAINS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 85W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF E
OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF...TEXAS...AND
MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 100W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 21N76W TO 17N80W TO THE N
COAST OF HONDURAS AT 16N87W. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE EXTENDS
FROM HAITI AT 20N73W TO COSTA RICA AT 11N83W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF THE SHEAR LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HAITI. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 9N-17N W OF 79W TO INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA.
ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE TOP
OF A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY AND DISSIPATING.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE DUE TO PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY. FURTHER E...TRADEWINDS ARE
ADVECTING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
MORE SHOWERS OVER ALL OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
BOTH SOURCES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A GALE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N64W TO E CUBA AT 21N76W. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E EXTENDING FROM 31N61W TO
HAITI AT 20N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM
E OF THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT N OF 23N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 23N. A LARGE 1043 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE AZORES AT 40N24W. SURFACE RIDGING
IS N OF 20N E OF 50W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W SUPPORTING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEMS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED FURTHER E AT
27N30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO
MERGE WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 28N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W ALONG A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO 21N76W. THIS
GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES E WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY LOCATED E OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT. SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 6N10W TO 2N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 2N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 3W-14W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 17W-
22W...AND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 28W-44W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 23N96W. 10-20 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER
THE GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF WITH SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER THE SE GULF. COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONT REMAINS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 85W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF E
OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF...TEXAS...AND
MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 100W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 21N76W TO 17N80W TO THE N
COAST OF HONDURAS AT 16N87W. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE EXTENDS
FROM HAITI AT 20N73W TO COSTA RICA AT 11N83W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF THE SHEAR LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HAITI. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 9N-17N W OF 79W TO INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA.
ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE TOP
OF A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY AND DISSIPATING.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE DUE TO PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY. FURTHER E...TRADEWINDS ARE
ADVECTING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
MORE SHOWERS OVER ALL OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
BOTH SOURCES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A GALE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N64W TO E CUBA AT 21N76W. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E EXTENDING FROM 31N61W TO
HAITI AT 20N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM
E OF THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT N OF 23N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 23N. A LARGE 1043 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE AZORES AT 40N24W. SURFACE RIDGING
IS N OF 20N E OF 50W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W SUPPORTING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEMS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED FURTHER E AT
27N30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO
MERGE WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271514
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO
14N96W. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 11-17 FT RANGE. A LARGE AREA OF N-
NE 20-30 KT WINDS IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM
16N95W TO 15N95W TO 12N98W WITH SEAS OF 10-15 FT. NE SWELLS THAT
HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS FROM 08N-14N
BETWEEN 94W-100W...AND ALSO S OF 10N BETWEEN 101W-112W. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT. THE
HIGH PRES CAUSING THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR THE GALE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO MINIMAL
THRESHOLD WITH MAX SEAS IN THE GULF EXPECTED AT AROUND 13 FT AT
THAT TIME.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NE 20-
25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 30 KT BY LATE TONIGHT AND
TO GALE FORCE OF 30-35 KT BY THU WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 9 TO 10
FT AT THAT TIME. THE GALE SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N78W TO 5N80W TO 5N90W. ITCZ FROM
5N90W TO 7N110W TO 6N120W TO 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-5N E OF 80W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
EXTENDS FROM 32N131W TO 13N120W. A 95-120 KT JETSTREAM ON THE W
SIDE OF THE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA AT 28N140W TO 14N127W. AN 95-
100 KT JET IS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N120W TO
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE
TROUGH WITH AXIS ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO N OF 15N. IN THE DEEP
TROPICS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 1N97W.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 23N140W.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALONG FRONT. NLY WINDS 15-20 KT ARE
W OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH 9 FT NW SWELL. OTHERWISE 8 FT NW SWELL
ARE NW OF A LINE FROM 32N1136W TO 18N140W. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE WED...AND WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT AND
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THE 8 FT.

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE GULF
OF PANAMA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED. THEN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-9
FT THU.

$$
DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271514
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO
14N96W. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 11-17 FT RANGE. A LARGE AREA OF N-
NE 20-30 KT WINDS IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM
16N95W TO 15N95W TO 12N98W WITH SEAS OF 10-15 FT. NE SWELLS THAT
HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS FROM 08N-14N
BETWEEN 94W-100W...AND ALSO S OF 10N BETWEEN 101W-112W. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT. THE
HIGH PRES CAUSING THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR THE GALE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO MINIMAL
THRESHOLD WITH MAX SEAS IN THE GULF EXPECTED AT AROUND 13 FT AT
THAT TIME.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NE 20-
25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 30 KT BY LATE TONIGHT AND
TO GALE FORCE OF 30-35 KT BY THU WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 9 TO 10
FT AT THAT TIME. THE GALE SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N78W TO 5N80W TO 5N90W. ITCZ FROM
5N90W TO 7N110W TO 6N120W TO 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-5N E OF 80W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
EXTENDS FROM 32N131W TO 13N120W. A 95-120 KT JETSTREAM ON THE W
SIDE OF THE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA AT 28N140W TO 14N127W. AN 95-
100 KT JET IS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N120W TO
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE
TROUGH WITH AXIS ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO N OF 15N. IN THE DEEP
TROPICS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 1N97W.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 23N140W.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALONG FRONT. NLY WINDS 15-20 KT ARE
W OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH 9 FT NW SWELL. OTHERWISE 8 FT NW SWELL
ARE NW OF A LINE FROM 32N1136W TO 18N140W. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE WED...AND WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT AND
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THE 8 FT.

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE GULF
OF PANAMA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED. THEN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-9
FT THU.

$$
DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271514
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO
14N96W. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 11-17 FT RANGE. A LARGE AREA OF N-
NE 20-30 KT WINDS IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM
16N95W TO 15N95W TO 12N98W WITH SEAS OF 10-15 FT. NE SWELLS THAT
HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS FROM 08N-14N
BETWEEN 94W-100W...AND ALSO S OF 10N BETWEEN 101W-112W. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT. THE
HIGH PRES CAUSING THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR THE GALE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO MINIMAL
THRESHOLD WITH MAX SEAS IN THE GULF EXPECTED AT AROUND 13 FT AT
THAT TIME.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NE 20-
25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 30 KT BY LATE TONIGHT AND
TO GALE FORCE OF 30-35 KT BY THU WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 9 TO 10
FT AT THAT TIME. THE GALE SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N78W TO 5N80W TO 5N90W. ITCZ FROM
5N90W TO 7N110W TO 6N120W TO 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-5N E OF 80W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
EXTENDS FROM 32N131W TO 13N120W. A 95-120 KT JETSTREAM ON THE W
SIDE OF THE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA AT 28N140W TO 14N127W. AN 95-
100 KT JET IS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N120W TO
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE
TROUGH WITH AXIS ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO N OF 15N. IN THE DEEP
TROPICS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 1N97W.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 23N140W.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALONG FRONT. NLY WINDS 15-20 KT ARE
W OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH 9 FT NW SWELL. OTHERWISE 8 FT NW SWELL
ARE NW OF A LINE FROM 32N1136W TO 18N140W. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE WED...AND WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT AND
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THE 8 FT.

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE GULF
OF PANAMA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED. THEN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-9
FT THU.

$$
DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271514
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO
14N96W. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 11-17 FT RANGE. A LARGE AREA OF N-
NE 20-30 KT WINDS IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM
16N95W TO 15N95W TO 12N98W WITH SEAS OF 10-15 FT. NE SWELLS THAT
HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS FROM 08N-14N
BETWEEN 94W-100W...AND ALSO S OF 10N BETWEEN 101W-112W. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT. THE
HIGH PRES CAUSING THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR THE GALE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO MINIMAL
THRESHOLD WITH MAX SEAS IN THE GULF EXPECTED AT AROUND 13 FT AT
THAT TIME.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NE 20-
25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 30 KT BY LATE TONIGHT AND
TO GALE FORCE OF 30-35 KT BY THU WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 9 TO 10
FT AT THAT TIME. THE GALE SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N78W TO 5N80W TO 5N90W. ITCZ FROM
5N90W TO 7N110W TO 6N120W TO 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-5N E OF 80W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
EXTENDS FROM 32N131W TO 13N120W. A 95-120 KT JETSTREAM ON THE W
SIDE OF THE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA AT 28N140W TO 14N127W. AN 95-
100 KT JET IS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N120W TO
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE
TROUGH WITH AXIS ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO N OF 15N. IN THE DEEP
TROPICS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 1N97W.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 23N140W.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALONG FRONT. NLY WINDS 15-20 KT ARE
W OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH 9 FT NW SWELL. OTHERWISE 8 FT NW SWELL
ARE NW OF A LINE FROM 32N1136W TO 18N140W. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE WED...AND WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT AND
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THE 8 FT.

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE GULF
OF PANAMA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED. THEN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-9
FT THU.

$$
DGS



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271100
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 27N BETWEEN 67W AND 79W W OF A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO 27N73W TO
22N77W. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT MOVES E WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED E OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT. SEE THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N13W TO 03N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01N33W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE 01S-04N BETWEEN 20W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N96W. SW UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN...BRINGING MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC
TO THE AREA. DESPITE THIS...THE GULF REMAINS CONVECTION FREE AS
THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED
THROUGH ON MONDAY PREVAILS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM 28N83W TO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N77W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF EXCEPT W OF 94W WHERE A
LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SE
CONUS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE E GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE W IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
E.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM 16N80W TO THE SW ATLANTIC NEAR 23N72W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM S OF THE BOUNDARY. A SHEAR
LINE EXTENDS S OF THIS TROUGH FROM 12N83W TO 16N80W. TO THE
W...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC ACROSS CUBA AND
THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 20N87W TO 22N80W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 77W WITH
ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS. TO THE W OF 77W...A
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT
FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH AND SHEAR LINE TO DISSIPATE AND THE COLD
FRONT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER FRONT AS IT MOVES E ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS W CUBA. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 29N81W TO 29N79W. A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO OVER THE W ATLANTIC
SUPPORTING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN GULF INTO THE W ATLANTIC FROM 23N78W TO 31N68W. TO THE
E...ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 23N72W TO 31N64W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 24N BETWEEN 57W-68W. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA NEAR THESE FRONTS
AND A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT. FOR MORE INFORMATION
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS FROM 24N48W TO 27N47W. A STATIONARY 1041 MB SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 39N25W AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE E AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE TROUGHS TO DISSIPATE. THE
FRONTS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC WILL MERGE AND THE NEW BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271100
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 27N BETWEEN 67W AND 79W W OF A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO 27N73W TO
22N77W. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT MOVES E WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED E OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT. SEE THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N13W TO 03N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01N33W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE 01S-04N BETWEEN 20W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N96W. SW UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN...BRINGING MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC
TO THE AREA. DESPITE THIS...THE GULF REMAINS CONVECTION FREE AS
THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED
THROUGH ON MONDAY PREVAILS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM 28N83W TO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N77W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF EXCEPT W OF 94W WHERE A
LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SE
CONUS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE E GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE W IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
E.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM 16N80W TO THE SW ATLANTIC NEAR 23N72W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM S OF THE BOUNDARY. A SHEAR
LINE EXTENDS S OF THIS TROUGH FROM 12N83W TO 16N80W. TO THE
W...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC ACROSS CUBA AND
THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 20N87W TO 22N80W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 77W WITH
ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS. TO THE W OF 77W...A
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT
FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH AND SHEAR LINE TO DISSIPATE AND THE COLD
FRONT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER FRONT AS IT MOVES E ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS W CUBA. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 29N81W TO 29N79W. A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO OVER THE W ATLANTIC
SUPPORTING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN GULF INTO THE W ATLANTIC FROM 23N78W TO 31N68W. TO THE
E...ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 23N72W TO 31N64W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 24N BETWEEN 57W-68W. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA NEAR THESE FRONTS
AND A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT. FOR MORE INFORMATION
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS FROM 24N48W TO 27N47W. A STATIONARY 1041 MB SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 39N25W AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE E AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE TROUGHS TO DISSIPATE. THE
FRONTS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC WILL MERGE AND THE NEW BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271005
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND THE GULF WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
16N95W TO 15N95W TO 14N96W. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 11-17 FT
RANGE. EARLIER OBSERVATIONS AS REPORTED EARLY MON EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SHIPS "ZCDI4"..."SLKR"...AND
"ZOAY4" VERIFIED THE GALE WIND CONDITIONS WITH SHIP "ZCDI4" NEAR
16N95W REPORTING 42 KT AT 00 UTC...SHIP "SLKR" NEAR 14N95W
REPORTING 40 KT AT 06 UTC AND SHIP "ZOAY4" NEAR 14N96W REPORTING
36 KT ALSO AT 06 UTC.

A LARGE AREA OF N-NE 20-30 KT WINDS IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM OF
A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 12N98W WITH SEAS OF 10-15 FT. NE
SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS FROM 08N-
14N BETWEEN 94W-101W...AND ALSO S OF 11N BETWEEN 101W-112W. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT. THE
HIGH PRES TIED TO CULPRIT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR THE GALE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO
MINIMAL THRESHOLD WITH MAX SEAS IN THE GULF EXPECTED AT AROUND
13 FT AT THAT TIME.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE
PRESENT NE 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 30 KT BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND TO GALE FORCE OF 30-35 KT BY LATE WED NIGHT
WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 9 TO 12 FT AT THAT TIME. MEAN ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THIS GALE EVENT IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR...BUT SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF ELSEWHERE FROM
09N-13N E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA AND ALSO WITHIN
60 NM OF A LINE FROM 09N88W TO 08N90W WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 02N78W TO 03N84W TO 05N89W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO THE ITCZ CONTINUING
TO 06N102W TO 07N112W TO 07N122W TO 08N130W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 78W-79.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 93W-94.5W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 32N133W SSE TO
23N130W...AND TO NEAR 11N123W. BROAD SCALE RIDGING IS NOTED ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD TO SE MEXICO...AND TO ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE FAR
NW PORTION OF THE AREA HAS STALL ALONG A POSITION FROM 31N135W
TO 23N140W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT W OF THE FRONT IS INDUCING N-
NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT THERE WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-10 FT.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
GRADIENT BEHIND IT SLACKENING. THIS WILL DECREASE THESE WINDS TO
15 KT WITH SEAS JUST UNDER 8 FT. E OF THE FRONT WEAK HIGH PRES
OF 1019 MB CENTERED NEAR 33N123W EXTENDS A RIDGE SSE TO NEAR
11N113W. THE ASSOCIATED PRES GRADIENT IS WEAK AS INDICATED IN
ASCAT PASSES FROM JUST AFTER 04 UTC AND NEAR 0530 UTC THAT
DISPLAYED MOSTLY GENTLE WINDS N OF 11N AND TO THE E OF THE
FRONT. NE-E FRESH WINDS ARE S OF 11N...EXCEPT IN REGIONS OF GAP
WINDS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS AND
ARE CURRENTLY MIXING WITH THE SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES GENERATED
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED GAP WIND REGIONS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
PAPAGAYO. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELLS RELATED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ARE PROPAGATING SEWD OVER AN AREA TO
THE N OF 14N AND W OF ABOUT 122W WITH RESULTANT MAX SEAS IN THE
9-10 FT. SWELL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT.

GAP WINDS...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG N
WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA REACHING TO NEAR 04N BETWEEN 79W-81W. THESE WINDS
WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH SEAS THERE MAXING OUT
TO 8 OR 9 FT.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271005
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND THE GULF WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
16N95W TO 15N95W TO 14N96W. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 11-17 FT
RANGE. EARLIER OBSERVATIONS AS REPORTED EARLY MON EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SHIPS "ZCDI4"..."SLKR"...AND
"ZOAY4" VERIFIED THE GALE WIND CONDITIONS WITH SHIP "ZCDI4" NEAR
16N95W REPORTING 42 KT AT 00 UTC...SHIP "SLKR" NEAR 14N95W
REPORTING 40 KT AT 06 UTC AND SHIP "ZOAY4" NEAR 14N96W REPORTING
36 KT ALSO AT 06 UTC.

A LARGE AREA OF N-NE 20-30 KT WINDS IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM OF
A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 12N98W WITH SEAS OF 10-15 FT. NE
SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS FROM 08N-
14N BETWEEN 94W-101W...AND ALSO S OF 11N BETWEEN 101W-112W. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT. THE
HIGH PRES TIED TO CULPRIT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR THE GALE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO
MINIMAL THRESHOLD WITH MAX SEAS IN THE GULF EXPECTED AT AROUND
13 FT AT THAT TIME.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE
PRESENT NE 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 30 KT BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND TO GALE FORCE OF 30-35 KT BY LATE WED NIGHT
WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 9 TO 12 FT AT THAT TIME. MEAN ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THIS GALE EVENT IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR...BUT SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF ELSEWHERE FROM
09N-13N E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA AND ALSO WITHIN
60 NM OF A LINE FROM 09N88W TO 08N90W WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 02N78W TO 03N84W TO 05N89W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO THE ITCZ CONTINUING
TO 06N102W TO 07N112W TO 07N122W TO 08N130W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 78W-79.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 93W-94.5W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 32N133W SSE TO
23N130W...AND TO NEAR 11N123W. BROAD SCALE RIDGING IS NOTED ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD TO SE MEXICO...AND TO ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE FAR
NW PORTION OF THE AREA HAS STALL ALONG A POSITION FROM 31N135W
TO 23N140W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT W OF THE FRONT IS INDUCING N-
NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT THERE WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-10 FT.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
GRADIENT BEHIND IT SLACKENING. THIS WILL DECREASE THESE WINDS TO
15 KT WITH SEAS JUST UNDER 8 FT. E OF THE FRONT WEAK HIGH PRES
OF 1019 MB CENTERED NEAR 33N123W EXTENDS A RIDGE SSE TO NEAR
11N113W. THE ASSOCIATED PRES GRADIENT IS WEAK AS INDICATED IN
ASCAT PASSES FROM JUST AFTER 04 UTC AND NEAR 0530 UTC THAT
DISPLAYED MOSTLY GENTLE WINDS N OF 11N AND TO THE E OF THE
FRONT. NE-E FRESH WINDS ARE S OF 11N...EXCEPT IN REGIONS OF GAP
WINDS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS AND
ARE CURRENTLY MIXING WITH THE SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES GENERATED
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED GAP WIND REGIONS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
PAPAGAYO. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELLS RELATED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ARE PROPAGATING SEWD OVER AN AREA TO
THE N OF 14N AND W OF ABOUT 122W WITH RESULTANT MAX SEAS IN THE
9-10 FT. SWELL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT.

GAP WINDS...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG N
WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA REACHING TO NEAR 04N BETWEEN 79W-81W. THESE WINDS
WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH SEAS THERE MAXING OUT
TO 8 OR 9 FT.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271005
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND THE GULF WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
16N95W TO 15N95W TO 14N96W. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 11-17 FT
RANGE. EARLIER OBSERVATIONS AS REPORTED EARLY MON EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SHIPS "ZCDI4"..."SLKR"...AND
"ZOAY4" VERIFIED THE GALE WIND CONDITIONS WITH SHIP "ZCDI4" NEAR
16N95W REPORTING 42 KT AT 00 UTC...SHIP "SLKR" NEAR 14N95W
REPORTING 40 KT AT 06 UTC AND SHIP "ZOAY4" NEAR 14N96W REPORTING
36 KT ALSO AT 06 UTC.

A LARGE AREA OF N-NE 20-30 KT WINDS IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM OF
A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 12N98W WITH SEAS OF 10-15 FT. NE
SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS FROM 08N-
14N BETWEEN 94W-101W...AND ALSO S OF 11N BETWEEN 101W-112W. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT. THE
HIGH PRES TIED TO CULPRIT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR THE GALE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO
MINIMAL THRESHOLD WITH MAX SEAS IN THE GULF EXPECTED AT AROUND
13 FT AT THAT TIME.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE
PRESENT NE 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 30 KT BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND TO GALE FORCE OF 30-35 KT BY LATE WED NIGHT
WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 9 TO 12 FT AT THAT TIME. MEAN ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THIS GALE EVENT IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR...BUT SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF ELSEWHERE FROM
09N-13N E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA AND ALSO WITHIN
60 NM OF A LINE FROM 09N88W TO 08N90W WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 02N78W TO 03N84W TO 05N89W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO THE ITCZ CONTINUING
TO 06N102W TO 07N112W TO 07N122W TO 08N130W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 78W-79.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 93W-94.5W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 32N133W SSE TO
23N130W...AND TO NEAR 11N123W. BROAD SCALE RIDGING IS NOTED ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD TO SE MEXICO...AND TO ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE FAR
NW PORTION OF THE AREA HAS STALL ALONG A POSITION FROM 31N135W
TO 23N140W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT W OF THE FRONT IS INDUCING N-
NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT THERE WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-10 FT.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
GRADIENT BEHIND IT SLACKENING. THIS WILL DECREASE THESE WINDS TO
15 KT WITH SEAS JUST UNDER 8 FT. E OF THE FRONT WEAK HIGH PRES
OF 1019 MB CENTERED NEAR 33N123W EXTENDS A RIDGE SSE TO NEAR
11N113W. THE ASSOCIATED PRES GRADIENT IS WEAK AS INDICATED IN
ASCAT PASSES FROM JUST AFTER 04 UTC AND NEAR 0530 UTC THAT
DISPLAYED MOSTLY GENTLE WINDS N OF 11N AND TO THE E OF THE
FRONT. NE-E FRESH WINDS ARE S OF 11N...EXCEPT IN REGIONS OF GAP
WINDS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS AND
ARE CURRENTLY MIXING WITH THE SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES GENERATED
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED GAP WIND REGIONS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
PAPAGAYO. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELLS RELATED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ARE PROPAGATING SEWD OVER AN AREA TO
THE N OF 14N AND W OF ABOUT 122W WITH RESULTANT MAX SEAS IN THE
9-10 FT. SWELL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT.

GAP WINDS...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG N
WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA REACHING TO NEAR 04N BETWEEN 79W-81W. THESE WINDS
WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH SEAS THERE MAXING OUT
TO 8 OR 9 FT.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271005
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND THE GULF WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
16N95W TO 15N95W TO 14N96W. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 11-17 FT
RANGE. EARLIER OBSERVATIONS AS REPORTED EARLY MON EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SHIPS "ZCDI4"..."SLKR"...AND
"ZOAY4" VERIFIED THE GALE WIND CONDITIONS WITH SHIP "ZCDI4" NEAR
16N95W REPORTING 42 KT AT 00 UTC...SHIP "SLKR" NEAR 14N95W
REPORTING 40 KT AT 06 UTC AND SHIP "ZOAY4" NEAR 14N96W REPORTING
36 KT ALSO AT 06 UTC.

A LARGE AREA OF N-NE 20-30 KT WINDS IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM OF
A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 12N98W WITH SEAS OF 10-15 FT. NE
SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS FROM 08N-
14N BETWEEN 94W-101W...AND ALSO S OF 11N BETWEEN 101W-112W. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT. THE
HIGH PRES TIED TO CULPRIT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR THE GALE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO
MINIMAL THRESHOLD WITH MAX SEAS IN THE GULF EXPECTED AT AROUND
13 FT AT THAT TIME.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE
PRESENT NE 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 30 KT BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND TO GALE FORCE OF 30-35 KT BY LATE WED NIGHT
WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 9 TO 12 FT AT THAT TIME. MEAN ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THIS GALE EVENT IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR...BUT SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF ELSEWHERE FROM
09N-13N E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA AND ALSO WITHIN
60 NM OF A LINE FROM 09N88W TO 08N90W WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 02N78W TO 03N84W TO 05N89W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO THE ITCZ CONTINUING
TO 06N102W TO 07N112W TO 07N122W TO 08N130W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 78W-79.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 93W-94.5W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 32N133W SSE TO
23N130W...AND TO NEAR 11N123W. BROAD SCALE RIDGING IS NOTED ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD TO SE MEXICO...AND TO ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE FAR
NW PORTION OF THE AREA HAS STALL ALONG A POSITION FROM 31N135W
TO 23N140W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT W OF THE FRONT IS INDUCING N-
NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT THERE WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-10 FT.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
GRADIENT BEHIND IT SLACKENING. THIS WILL DECREASE THESE WINDS TO
15 KT WITH SEAS JUST UNDER 8 FT. E OF THE FRONT WEAK HIGH PRES
OF 1019 MB CENTERED NEAR 33N123W EXTENDS A RIDGE SSE TO NEAR
11N113W. THE ASSOCIATED PRES GRADIENT IS WEAK AS INDICATED IN
ASCAT PASSES FROM JUST AFTER 04 UTC AND NEAR 0530 UTC THAT
DISPLAYED MOSTLY GENTLE WINDS N OF 11N AND TO THE E OF THE
FRONT. NE-E FRESH WINDS ARE S OF 11N...EXCEPT IN REGIONS OF GAP
WINDS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS AND
ARE CURRENTLY MIXING WITH THE SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES GENERATED
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED GAP WIND REGIONS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
PAPAGAYO. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELLS RELATED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ARE PROPAGATING SEWD OVER AN AREA TO
THE N OF 14N AND W OF ABOUT 122W WITH RESULTANT MAX SEAS IN THE
9-10 FT. SWELL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT.

GAP WINDS...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG N
WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA REACHING TO NEAR 04N BETWEEN 79W-81W. THESE WINDS
WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH SEAS THERE MAXING OUT
TO 8 OR 9 FT.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271004
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND THE GULF WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
16N95W TO 15N95W TO 14N96W. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 11-17 FT
RANGE. EARLIER OBSERVATIONS AS REPORTED EARLY MON EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SHIPS "ZCDI4"..."SLKR"...AND
"ZOAY4" VERIFIED THE GALE WIND CONDITIONS WITH SHIP "ZCDI4" NEAR
16N95W REPORTING 42 KT AT 00 UTC...SHIP "SLKR" NEAR 14N95W
REPORTING 40 KT AT 06 UTC AND SHIP "ZOAY4" NEAR 14N96W REPORTING
36 KT ALSO AT 06 UTC.

A LARGE AREA OF N-NE 20-30 KT WINDS IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM OF
A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 12N98W WITH SEAS OF 10-15 FT. NE
SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS FROM 08N-
14N BETWEEN 94W-101W...AND ALSO S OF 11N BETWEEN 101W-112W. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT. THE
HIGH PRES TIED TO CULPRIT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR THE GALE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO
MINIMAL THRESHOLD WITH MAX SEAS IN THE GULF EXPECTED AT AROUND
13 FT AT THAT TIME.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE
PRESENT NE 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 30 KT BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND TO GALE FORCE OF 30-35 KT BY LATE WED NIGHT
WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 9 TO 12 FT AT THAT TIME. MEAN ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THIS GALE EVENT IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR...BUT SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF ELSEWHERE FROM
09N-13N E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA AND ALSO WITHIN
60 NM OF A LINE FROM 09N88W TO 08N90W WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 02N78W TO 03N84W TO 05N89W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO THE ITCZ CONTINUING
TO 06N102W TO 07N112W TO 07N122W TO 08N130W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 78W-79.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 93W-94.5W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 32N133W SSE TO
23N130W...AND TO NEAR 11N123W. BROAD SCALE RIDGING IS NOTED ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD TO SE MEXICO...AND TO ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE FAR
NW PORTION OF THE AREA HAS STALL ALONG A POSITION FROM 31N135W
TO 23N140W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT W OF THE FRONT IS INDUCING N-
NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT THERE WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-10 FT.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
GRADIENT BEHIND IT SLACKENING. THIS WILL DECREASE THESE WINDS TO
15 KT WITH SEAS JUST UNDER 8 FT. E OF THE FRONT WEAK HIGH PRES
OF 1019 MB CENTERED NEAR 33N123W EXTENDS A RIDGE SSE TO NEAR
11N113W. THE ASSOCIATED PRES GRADIENT IS WEAK AS INDICATED IN
ASCAT PASSED FROM JUST PASSED 04 UTC AND NEAR 0530 UTC THAT
DISPLAYED MOSTLY GENTLE  WINDS N OF 11N AND TO THE E OF THE
FRONT. NE-E FRESH WINDS ARE S OF 11N...EXCEPT IN REGIONS OF GAP
WINDS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS AND
ARE CURRENTLY MIXING WITH THE SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES GENERATED
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED GAP WIND REGIONS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
PAPAGAYO. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELLS RELATED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ARE PROPAGATING SEWD OVER AN AREA TO
THE N OF 14N AND W OF ABOUT 122W WITH RESULTANT MAX SEAS IN THE
9-10 FT. SWELL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT.

GAP WINDS...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG N
WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA REACHING TO NEAR 04N BETWEEN 79W-81W. THESE WINDS
WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH SEAS THERE MAXING OUT
TO 8 OR 9 FT.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271004
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND THE GULF WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
16N95W TO 15N95W TO 14N96W. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 11-17 FT
RANGE. EARLIER OBSERVATIONS AS REPORTED EARLY MON EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SHIPS "ZCDI4"..."SLKR"...AND
"ZOAY4" VERIFIED THE GALE WIND CONDITIONS WITH SHIP "ZCDI4" NEAR
16N95W REPORTING 42 KT AT 00 UTC...SHIP "SLKR" NEAR 14N95W
REPORTING 40 KT AT 06 UTC AND SHIP "ZOAY4" NEAR 14N96W REPORTING
36 KT ALSO AT 06 UTC.

A LARGE AREA OF N-NE 20-30 KT WINDS IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM OF
A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 12N98W WITH SEAS OF 10-15 FT. NE
SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS FROM 08N-
14N BETWEEN 94W-101W...AND ALSO S OF 11N BETWEEN 101W-112W. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT. THE
HIGH PRES TIED TO CULPRIT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR THE GALE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO
MINIMAL THRESHOLD WITH MAX SEAS IN THE GULF EXPECTED AT AROUND
13 FT AT THAT TIME.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE
PRESENT NE 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 30 KT BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND TO GALE FORCE OF 30-35 KT BY LATE WED NIGHT
WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 9 TO 12 FT AT THAT TIME. MEAN ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THIS GALE EVENT IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR...BUT SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF ELSEWHERE FROM
09N-13N E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA AND ALSO WITHIN
60 NM OF A LINE FROM 09N88W TO 08N90W WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 02N78W TO 03N84W TO 05N89W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO THE ITCZ CONTINUING
TO 06N102W TO 07N112W TO 07N122W TO 08N130W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 78W-79.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 93W-94.5W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 32N133W SSE TO
23N130W...AND TO NEAR 11N123W. BROAD SCALE RIDGING IS NOTED ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD TO SE MEXICO...AND TO ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE FAR
NW PORTION OF THE AREA HAS STALL ALONG A POSITION FROM 31N135W
TO 23N140W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT W OF THE FRONT IS INDUCING N-
NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT THERE WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-10 FT.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
GRADIENT BEHIND IT SLACKENING. THIS WILL DECREASE THESE WINDS TO
15 KT WITH SEAS JUST UNDER 8 FT. E OF THE FRONT WEAK HIGH PRES
OF 1019 MB CENTERED NEAR 33N123W EXTENDS A RIDGE SSE TO NEAR
11N113W. THE ASSOCIATED PRES GRADIENT IS WEAK AS INDICATED IN
ASCAT PASSED FROM JUST PASSED 04 UTC AND NEAR 0530 UTC THAT
DISPLAYED MOSTLY GENTLE  WINDS N OF 11N AND TO THE E OF THE
FRONT. NE-E FRESH WINDS ARE S OF 11N...EXCEPT IN REGIONS OF GAP
WINDS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS AND
ARE CURRENTLY MIXING WITH THE SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES GENERATED
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED GAP WIND REGIONS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
PAPAGAYO. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELLS RELATED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ARE PROPAGATING SEWD OVER AN AREA TO
THE N OF 14N AND W OF ABOUT 122W WITH RESULTANT MAX SEAS IN THE
9-10 FT. SWELL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT.

GAP WINDS...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG N
WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA REACHING TO NEAR 04N BETWEEN 79W-81W. THESE WINDS
WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH SEAS THERE MAXING OUT
TO 8 OR 9 FT.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271004
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND THE GULF WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
16N95W TO 15N95W TO 14N96W. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 11-17 FT
RANGE. EARLIER OBSERVATIONS AS REPORTED EARLY MON EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SHIPS "ZCDI4"..."SLKR"...AND
"ZOAY4" VERIFIED THE GALE WIND CONDITIONS WITH SHIP "ZCDI4" NEAR
16N95W REPORTING 42 KT AT 00 UTC...SHIP "SLKR" NEAR 14N95W
REPORTING 40 KT AT 06 UTC AND SHIP "ZOAY4" NEAR 14N96W REPORTING
36 KT ALSO AT 06 UTC.

A LARGE AREA OF N-NE 20-30 KT WINDS IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM OF
A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 12N98W WITH SEAS OF 10-15 FT. NE
SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS FROM 08N-
14N BETWEEN 94W-101W...AND ALSO S OF 11N BETWEEN 101W-112W. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT. THE
HIGH PRES TIED TO CULPRIT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR THE GALE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO
MINIMAL THRESHOLD WITH MAX SEAS IN THE GULF EXPECTED AT AROUND
13 FT AT THAT TIME.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE
PRESENT NE 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 30 KT BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND TO GALE FORCE OF 30-35 KT BY LATE WED NIGHT
WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 9 TO 12 FT AT THAT TIME. MEAN ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THIS GALE EVENT IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR...BUT SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF ELSEWHERE FROM
09N-13N E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA AND ALSO WITHIN
60 NM OF A LINE FROM 09N88W TO 08N90W WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 02N78W TO 03N84W TO 05N89W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO THE ITCZ CONTINUING
TO 06N102W TO 07N112W TO 07N122W TO 08N130W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 78W-79.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 93W-94.5W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 32N133W SSE TO
23N130W...AND TO NEAR 11N123W. BROAD SCALE RIDGING IS NOTED ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD TO SE MEXICO...AND TO ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE FAR
NW PORTION OF THE AREA HAS STALL ALONG A POSITION FROM 31N135W
TO 23N140W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT W OF THE FRONT IS INDUCING N-
NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT THERE WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-10 FT.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
GRADIENT BEHIND IT SLACKENING. THIS WILL DECREASE THESE WINDS TO
15 KT WITH SEAS JUST UNDER 8 FT. E OF THE FRONT WEAK HIGH PRES
OF 1019 MB CENTERED NEAR 33N123W EXTENDS A RIDGE SSE TO NEAR
11N113W. THE ASSOCIATED PRES GRADIENT IS WEAK AS INDICATED IN
ASCAT PASSED FROM JUST PASSED 04 UTC AND NEAR 0530 UTC THAT
DISPLAYED MOSTLY GENTLE  WINDS N OF 11N AND TO THE E OF THE
FRONT. NE-E FRESH WINDS ARE S OF 11N...EXCEPT IN REGIONS OF GAP
WINDS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS AND
ARE CURRENTLY MIXING WITH THE SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES GENERATED
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED GAP WIND REGIONS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
PAPAGAYO. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELLS RELATED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ARE PROPAGATING SEWD OVER AN AREA TO
THE N OF 14N AND W OF ABOUT 122W WITH RESULTANT MAX SEAS IN THE
9-10 FT. SWELL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT.

GAP WINDS...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG N
WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA REACHING TO NEAR 04N BETWEEN 79W-81W. THESE WINDS
WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH SEAS THERE MAXING OUT
TO 8 OR 9 FT.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271004
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND THE GULF WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
16N95W TO 15N95W TO 14N96W. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 11-17 FT
RANGE. EARLIER OBSERVATIONS AS REPORTED EARLY MON EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SHIPS "ZCDI4"..."SLKR"...AND
"ZOAY4" VERIFIED THE GALE WIND CONDITIONS WITH SHIP "ZCDI4" NEAR
16N95W REPORTING 42 KT AT 00 UTC...SHIP "SLKR" NEAR 14N95W
REPORTING 40 KT AT 06 UTC AND SHIP "ZOAY4" NEAR 14N96W REPORTING
36 KT ALSO AT 06 UTC.

A LARGE AREA OF N-NE 20-30 KT WINDS IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM OF
A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 12N98W WITH SEAS OF 10-15 FT. NE
SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS FROM 08N-
14N BETWEEN 94W-101W...AND ALSO S OF 11N BETWEEN 101W-112W. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT. THE
HIGH PRES TIED TO CULPRIT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR THE GALE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO
MINIMAL THRESHOLD WITH MAX SEAS IN THE GULF EXPECTED AT AROUND
13 FT AT THAT TIME.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE
PRESENT NE 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 30 KT BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND TO GALE FORCE OF 30-35 KT BY LATE WED NIGHT
WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 9 TO 12 FT AT THAT TIME. MEAN ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THIS GALE EVENT IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR...BUT SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF ELSEWHERE FROM
09N-13N E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA AND ALSO WITHIN
60 NM OF A LINE FROM 09N88W TO 08N90W WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 02N78W TO 03N84W TO 05N89W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO THE ITCZ CONTINUING
TO 06N102W TO 07N112W TO 07N122W TO 08N130W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 78W-79.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 93W-94.5W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 32N133W SSE TO
23N130W...AND TO NEAR 11N123W. BROAD SCALE RIDGING IS NOTED ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD TO SE MEXICO...AND TO ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE FAR
NW PORTION OF THE AREA HAS STALL ALONG A POSITION FROM 31N135W
TO 23N140W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT W OF THE FRONT IS INDUCING N-
NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT THERE WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-10 FT.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
GRADIENT BEHIND IT SLACKENING. THIS WILL DECREASE THESE WINDS TO
15 KT WITH SEAS JUST UNDER 8 FT. E OF THE FRONT WEAK HIGH PRES
OF 1019 MB CENTERED NEAR 33N123W EXTENDS A RIDGE SSE TO NEAR
11N113W. THE ASSOCIATED PRES GRADIENT IS WEAK AS INDICATED IN
ASCAT PASSED FROM JUST PASSED 04 UTC AND NEAR 0530 UTC THAT
DISPLAYED MOSTLY GENTLE  WINDS N OF 11N AND TO THE E OF THE
FRONT. NE-E FRESH WINDS ARE S OF 11N...EXCEPT IN REGIONS OF GAP
WINDS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS AND
ARE CURRENTLY MIXING WITH THE SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES GENERATED
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED GAP WIND REGIONS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
PAPAGAYO. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELLS RELATED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ARE PROPAGATING SEWD OVER AN AREA TO
THE N OF 14N AND W OF ABOUT 122W WITH RESULTANT MAX SEAS IN THE
9-10 FT. SWELL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT.

GAP WINDS...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG N
WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA REACHING TO NEAR 04N BETWEEN 79W-81W. THESE WINDS
WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH SEAS THERE MAXING OUT
TO 8 OR 9 FT.

$$
AGUIRRE




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