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000
AXNT20 KNHC 021149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON MAR 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 11 AND 15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...RESUMING AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W SW TO 01S12W TO 01S20W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 05S37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE
FROM 04S TO 04N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ W OF 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN...THUS
PROVIDING E-SE WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KT. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA SW TO A 1026 MB
LOW OVER SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA
TO 29N93W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 23N97W. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC EXTENDING AS A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 27N82W NW TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W.
OVER THE SW GULF...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 25N94W TO
18N94W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
GUATEMALA WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDING S OF 26N. HOWEVER...SW TO W
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT ADVECTS MOISTURE TO THE NORTHERN GULF
FROM E PAC WATERS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BASIN
SUPPORTS FOG N OF 26N...COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13
IFR PROBABILITIES OF FOG. BOTH STATIONARY FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE TODAY DURING EVENING HOURS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN...THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE GREATER...LESSER ANTILLES AND CENTRAL AMERICA
COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE
FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 15 KT PREVAIL. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND COASTAL
WATERS...THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. TONIGHT...A
MOIST AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND INCREASING
THE CHANCE OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC EXTENDING AS
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N79W SW TO 28N80W...ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO 27N82W NW TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W. NO CONVECTION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HOWEVER...FOG IS BEING REPORTED OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA AND EXTENDS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE
COAST N OF 28N AS INDICATED BY HIGH IFR PROBABILITIES. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 021149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON MAR 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 11 AND 15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...RESUMING AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W SW TO 01S12W TO 01S20W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 05S37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE
FROM 04S TO 04N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ W OF 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN...THUS
PROVIDING E-SE WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KT. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA SW TO A 1026 MB
LOW OVER SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA
TO 29N93W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 23N97W. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC EXTENDING AS A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 27N82W NW TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W.
OVER THE SW GULF...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 25N94W TO
18N94W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
GUATEMALA WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDING S OF 26N. HOWEVER...SW TO W
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT ADVECTS MOISTURE TO THE NORTHERN GULF
FROM E PAC WATERS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BASIN
SUPPORTS FOG N OF 26N...COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13
IFR PROBABILITIES OF FOG. BOTH STATIONARY FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE TODAY DURING EVENING HOURS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN...THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE GREATER...LESSER ANTILLES AND CENTRAL AMERICA
COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE
FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 15 KT PREVAIL. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND COASTAL
WATERS...THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. TONIGHT...A
MOIST AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND INCREASING
THE CHANCE OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC EXTENDING AS
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N79W SW TO 28N80W...ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO 27N82W NW TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W. NO CONVECTION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HOWEVER...FOG IS BEING REPORTED OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA AND EXTENDS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE
COAST N OF 28N AS INDICATED BY HIGH IFR PROBABILITIES. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021005
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAR 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A SURFACE TROUGH STARTS NEAR 06N81W...AND IT CONTINUES TO 07N83W
TO 05N88W TO 06N93W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N93W TO 06N96W TO
05N104W TO 07N115W TO 04N126W TO 06N136W BEYOND 06N140W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 05N TO 07N
BETWEEN 81W AND 83W...AND FROM 04N TO 05N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN
78W AND 79W.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N118W TO 17N121W TO 15N122W TO
12N125W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH...AND FROM 20N TO 22N
BETWEEN 113W AND 117W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 34N120W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 26N126W AND 05N123W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 30N116W TO 26N118W TO 22N124W. AREAS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT. THE WIND SPEEDS STAY IN
THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AND THE SEA HEIGHTS STAY IN THE 8 TO 10
FOOT RANGE...DOWNSTREAM FROM THE COLD FRONT POSITION...IN AN
AREA OF TYPICAL TRADEWIND FLOW...FROM 10N TO 20N FROM 130W
WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N118W TO 17N121W TO
15N122W TO 12N125W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
TROUGH...AND FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 113W AND 117W. A SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N142W 27N137W TO 22N130W.

ELSEWHERE AT LOW LEVELS...GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA E OF
120W...WHERE ALL THE TYPICAL GAP AREA ARE SEEING MODERATE TO
FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN. MOST OF THESE GAP WIND LOCATIONS WILL
SEE WINDS MAXIMIZE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT...DUE TO THE ENHANCEMENT OF NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE FAR
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THIS GULF THIS MORNING...WITH S-SW 15-25 KT
WINDS OCCURRING N OF 26N AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH STRONGEST
WINDS IN A VERY NARROW BAND SE OF THE FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MON AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SE...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING W AROUND 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT MON.

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE ASCAT DATA FROM 02/0406 UTC SHOW
NORTHWEST WINDS RANGING FROM 25 KNOTS TO 30 KNOTS FROM 15N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 94.5W AND 95W. THE FORECAST COMPARATIVELY
SMALLER AREAS OF 30 KNOT WINDS EMBEDDED WITHIN COMPARATIVELY
LARGER AREAS OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 11 FEET NEAR THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AN AREA OF SWELL IS GENERATED EVENTUALLY...
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA...WITH SEA HEIGHTS
THERE REACHING 9 TO 10 FEET. THE NEXT GALE-FORCE WIND EVENT...
WITH WIND SPEEDS REACHING AT LEAST 40 KNOTS...WILL START EARLY
ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 15-25 KT WILL GENERALLY
CONTINUES ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF...WITH NOCTURNAL
MAXIMA PULSING TO 25-30 KT TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT...AND A MUCH
WEAKER EVENT ON TUE NIGHT. NE WINDS 15-25 KT ARE ALSO LIKELY TO
SPILL ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF FONSECA EACH NIGHT
DURING THE NIGHTTIME MAX ACROSS PAPAGAYO.

THE GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 05N FOR THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD 8-9 FT TONIGHT THROUGH
MON NIGHT.

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 020602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON MAR 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 11 AND 15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...RESUMING AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 04N08W SW TO 01S15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 02S26W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
05S35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 03S TO
03N BETWEEN 02W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
07S TO 01N BETWEEN 19W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN...THUS
PROVIDING E-SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB LOW OVER OHIO SW TO A 1027 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...ACROSS LOUISIANA TO 29N95W TO NE MEXICO
NEAR 23N97W. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN
ATLC EXTENDING AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO
29N83W TO COASTAL WATERS OF SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W. OVER THE
SW GULF...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED FROM 25N95W TO
19N94W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
GUATEMALA WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDING S OF 25N. HOWEVER...SW TO W
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT ADVECTS MOISTURE TO THE NORTHERN GULF.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BASIN SUPPORTS FOG N OF
26N...COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES
OF FOG. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NW GULF WILL TRANSITION
INTO A COLD FRONT BY MONDAY MORNING...DISSIPATING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. SIMILARLY...THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF WILL
TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING...MOVING INTO THE SW
N ATLC LATER THAT DAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN...THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE GREATER...LESSER ANTILLES AND CENTRAL AMERICA
COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE
FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 15 KT PREVAIL. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
ADJACENT WATERS THUS SUPPORTING SCATTERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PASSING SHOWERS TONIGHT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER MOIST AIRMASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC EXTENDING AS
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N80W SW TO 29N81W...ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA TO 29N83W TO COASTAL WATERS OF SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W.
NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO
TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING...MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER BASIN AND SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 020602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON MAR 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 11 AND 15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...RESUMING AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 04N08W SW TO 01S15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 02S26W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
05S35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 03S TO
03N BETWEEN 02W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
07S TO 01N BETWEEN 19W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN...THUS
PROVIDING E-SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB LOW OVER OHIO SW TO A 1027 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...ACROSS LOUISIANA TO 29N95W TO NE MEXICO
NEAR 23N97W. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN
ATLC EXTENDING AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO
29N83W TO COASTAL WATERS OF SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W. OVER THE
SW GULF...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED FROM 25N95W TO
19N94W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
GUATEMALA WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDING S OF 25N. HOWEVER...SW TO W
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT ADVECTS MOISTURE TO THE NORTHERN GULF.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BASIN SUPPORTS FOG N OF
26N...COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES
OF FOG. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NW GULF WILL TRANSITION
INTO A COLD FRONT BY MONDAY MORNING...DISSIPATING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. SIMILARLY...THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF WILL
TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING...MOVING INTO THE SW
N ATLC LATER THAT DAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN...THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE GREATER...LESSER ANTILLES AND CENTRAL AMERICA
COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE
FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 15 KT PREVAIL. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
ADJACENT WATERS THUS SUPPORTING SCATTERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PASSING SHOWERS TONIGHT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER MOIST AIRMASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC EXTENDING AS
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N80W SW TO 29N81W...ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA TO 29N83W TO COASTAL WATERS OF SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W.
NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO
TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING...MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER BASIN AND SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 020602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON MAR 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 11 AND 15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...RESUMING AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 04N08W SW TO 01S15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 02S26W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
05S35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 03S TO
03N BETWEEN 02W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
07S TO 01N BETWEEN 19W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN...THUS
PROVIDING E-SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB LOW OVER OHIO SW TO A 1027 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...ACROSS LOUISIANA TO 29N95W TO NE MEXICO
NEAR 23N97W. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN
ATLC EXTENDING AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO
29N83W TO COASTAL WATERS OF SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W. OVER THE
SW GULF...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED FROM 25N95W TO
19N94W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
GUATEMALA WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDING S OF 25N. HOWEVER...SW TO W
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT ADVECTS MOISTURE TO THE NORTHERN GULF.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BASIN SUPPORTS FOG N OF
26N...COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES
OF FOG. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NW GULF WILL TRANSITION
INTO A COLD FRONT BY MONDAY MORNING...DISSIPATING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. SIMILARLY...THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF WILL
TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING...MOVING INTO THE SW
N ATLC LATER THAT DAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN...THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE GREATER...LESSER ANTILLES AND CENTRAL AMERICA
COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE
FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 15 KT PREVAIL. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
ADJACENT WATERS THUS SUPPORTING SCATTERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PASSING SHOWERS TONIGHT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER MOIST AIRMASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC EXTENDING AS
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N80W SW TO 29N81W...ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA TO 29N83W TO COASTAL WATERS OF SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W.
NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO
TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING...MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER BASIN AND SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 020602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON MAR 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 11 AND 15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...RESUMING AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 04N08W SW TO 01S15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 02S26W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
05S35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 03S TO
03N BETWEEN 02W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
07S TO 01N BETWEEN 19W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN...THUS
PROVIDING E-SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB LOW OVER OHIO SW TO A 1027 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...ACROSS LOUISIANA TO 29N95W TO NE MEXICO
NEAR 23N97W. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN
ATLC EXTENDING AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO
29N83W TO COASTAL WATERS OF SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W. OVER THE
SW GULF...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED FROM 25N95W TO
19N94W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
GUATEMALA WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDING S OF 25N. HOWEVER...SW TO W
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT ADVECTS MOISTURE TO THE NORTHERN GULF.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BASIN SUPPORTS FOG N OF
26N...COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES
OF FOG. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NW GULF WILL TRANSITION
INTO A COLD FRONT BY MONDAY MORNING...DISSIPATING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. SIMILARLY...THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF WILL
TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING...MOVING INTO THE SW
N ATLC LATER THAT DAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN...THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE GREATER...LESSER ANTILLES AND CENTRAL AMERICA
COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE
FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 15 KT PREVAIL. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
ADJACENT WATERS THUS SUPPORTING SCATTERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PASSING SHOWERS TONIGHT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER MOIST AIRMASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC EXTENDING AS
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N80W SW TO 29N81W...ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA TO 29N83W TO COASTAL WATERS OF SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W.
NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO
TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING...MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER BASIN AND SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 020602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON MAR 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 11 AND 15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...RESUMING AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 04N08W SW TO 01S15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 02S26W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
05S35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 03S TO
03N BETWEEN 02W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
07S TO 01N BETWEEN 19W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN...THUS
PROVIDING E-SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB LOW OVER OHIO SW TO A 1027 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...ACROSS LOUISIANA TO 29N95W TO NE MEXICO
NEAR 23N97W. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN
ATLC EXTENDING AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO
29N83W TO COASTAL WATERS OF SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W. OVER THE
SW GULF...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED FROM 25N95W TO
19N94W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
GUATEMALA WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDING S OF 25N. HOWEVER...SW TO W
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT ADVECTS MOISTURE TO THE NORTHERN GULF.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BASIN SUPPORTS FOG N OF
26N...COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES
OF FOG. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NW GULF WILL TRANSITION
INTO A COLD FRONT BY MONDAY MORNING...DISSIPATING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. SIMILARLY...THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF WILL
TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING...MOVING INTO THE SW
N ATLC LATER THAT DAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN...THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE GREATER...LESSER ANTILLES AND CENTRAL AMERICA
COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE
FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 15 KT PREVAIL. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
ADJACENT WATERS THUS SUPPORTING SCATTERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PASSING SHOWERS TONIGHT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER MOIST AIRMASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC EXTENDING AS
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N80W SW TO 29N81W...ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA TO 29N83W TO COASTAL WATERS OF SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W.
NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO
TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING...MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER BASIN AND SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 020602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON MAR 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 11 AND 15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...RESUMING AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 04N08W SW TO 01S15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 02S26W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
05S35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 03S TO
03N BETWEEN 02W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
07S TO 01N BETWEEN 19W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN...THUS
PROVIDING E-SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB LOW OVER OHIO SW TO A 1027 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...ACROSS LOUISIANA TO 29N95W TO NE MEXICO
NEAR 23N97W. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN
ATLC EXTENDING AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO
29N83W TO COASTAL WATERS OF SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W. OVER THE
SW GULF...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED FROM 25N95W TO
19N94W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
GUATEMALA WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDING S OF 25N. HOWEVER...SW TO W
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT ADVECTS MOISTURE TO THE NORTHERN GULF.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BASIN SUPPORTS FOG N OF
26N...COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES
OF FOG. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NW GULF WILL TRANSITION
INTO A COLD FRONT BY MONDAY MORNING...DISSIPATING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. SIMILARLY...THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF WILL
TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING...MOVING INTO THE SW
N ATLC LATER THAT DAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN...THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE GREATER...LESSER ANTILLES AND CENTRAL AMERICA
COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE
FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 15 KT PREVAIL. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
ADJACENT WATERS THUS SUPPORTING SCATTERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PASSING SHOWERS TONIGHT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER MOIST AIRMASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC EXTENDING AS
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N80W SW TO 29N81W...ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA TO 29N83W TO COASTAL WATERS OF SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W.
NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO
TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING...MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER BASIN AND SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020403
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAR 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06.5N85.5W TO 05N90W TO 06N114W TO 04N125W TO
06N134W TO BEYOND 05N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 85.5W AND 96.5W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120
NM OF LINE FROM 13N123W TO 22N114W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE AND PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...CENTERED ALONG
90W...AND IS ACTING TO BLOCK UPSTREAM FLOW ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SPANS THE AREA BETWEEN 110W AND 140W
N OF 05N...WITH A SHARP DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE OFFSHORE OF S
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DIGGING SWD INTO THE AREA TO 20N. THIS SYSTEM
SUPPORTS A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF
THE SW U.S. WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW THROUGH 30N116W TO
21.5N130W TO 24N140W. ELEVATED CONVECTION OCCURRING IN DEEP
LAYERED SW FLOW CONTINUES TO YIELD LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATOFORM
PRECIP STREAMING ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND N
PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...N TO NE WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED TO AROUND 20 KT N OF THE FRONT W OF 127W...WHERE SEAS
ARE 8 TO 10 FT IN N SWELL. ACROSS THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH...A SHORT WAVE IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NE...LOCATED NEAR 22.5N118W. AN ENERGETIC ATMOSPHERE S THROUGH E
OF THE SHORTWAVE IS BOTH DRAWING MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE N AND NE
FROM THE TROPICS THERE...BUT ALSO ACTING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION
ALONG A CONVERGENCE LINE ROUGHLY EXTENDING WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM 13N123W TO 22N114W. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE TROPICS TO THE SW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...
WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SE AND REACHES FROM 29N113W TO
25N115W TO 21N118W MON AFTERNOON...WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE
PACIFIC WELL N OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH RIDGE EXTENDING S-SE TO
NEAR 24N133W. SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS TO PROMOTE THE
N TO NE WINDS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND FRESH NE TRADEWINDS TO THE S
OF THE FRONT TO THE ITCZ...GENERALLY W OF 130W. THE HIGH ACROSS
THE NE PACIFIC WILL SHIFT S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAINTAIN FRESH NE TRADEWINDS S OF 20N AND W OF
130W THROUGH MON NIGHT....WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH TUE.

ELSEWHERE AT LOW LEVELS...GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA E OF
120W...WHERE ALL THE TYPICAL GAP AREA ARE SEEING MODERATE TO
FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN. MOST OF THESE GAP WIND LOCATIONS WILL
SEE WINDS MAXIMIZE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT...DUE TO THE ENHANCEMENT OF NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE COLD FRONT HAS JUST ENTERED TO FAR N
PORTIONS OF THIS GULF THIS EVENING...WITH S-SW 15-25 KT WINDS
OCCURRING N OF 26N AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN
A VERY NARROW BAND SE OF THE FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MON AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SE...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING W AROUND 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT MON.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS 20-25 KT ARE CURRENTLY
OBSERVED THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF TO NEAR 14.5N95W AND
WILL PULSE TO 30 KT OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN ON MON NIGHT...WITH
SEAS RESPONDING AND BUILDING FROM 8 FT TO 11 FT BY EACH MORNING.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
LATE THU...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W GULF OF
MEXICO...AND WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE THU NIGHT
AND REACH NEAR STORM FORCE EARLY FRI THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 15-25 KT WILL GENERALLY
CONTINUES ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF...WITH NOCTURNAL
MAXES PULSING TO 25-30 KT TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT...AND A MUCH
WEAKER EVENT ON TUE NIGHT. NE WINDS 15-25 KT ARE ALSO LIKELY TO
SPILL ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF FONSECA EACH NIGHT
DURING THE NIGHTTIME MAX ACROSS PAPAGAYO.

.GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 05N FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD 8-9 FT TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020403
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAR 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06.5N85.5W TO 05N90W TO 06N114W TO 04N125W TO
06N134W TO BEYOND 05N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 85.5W AND 96.5W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120
NM OF LINE FROM 13N123W TO 22N114W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE AND PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...CENTERED ALONG
90W...AND IS ACTING TO BLOCK UPSTREAM FLOW ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SPANS THE AREA BETWEEN 110W AND 140W
N OF 05N...WITH A SHARP DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE OFFSHORE OF S
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DIGGING SWD INTO THE AREA TO 20N. THIS SYSTEM
SUPPORTS A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF
THE SW U.S. WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW THROUGH 30N116W TO
21.5N130W TO 24N140W. ELEVATED CONVECTION OCCURRING IN DEEP
LAYERED SW FLOW CONTINUES TO YIELD LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATOFORM
PRECIP STREAMING ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND N
PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...N TO NE WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED TO AROUND 20 KT N OF THE FRONT W OF 127W...WHERE SEAS
ARE 8 TO 10 FT IN N SWELL. ACROSS THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH...A SHORT WAVE IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NE...LOCATED NEAR 22.5N118W. AN ENERGETIC ATMOSPHERE S THROUGH E
OF THE SHORTWAVE IS BOTH DRAWING MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE N AND NE
FROM THE TROPICS THERE...BUT ALSO ACTING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION
ALONG A CONVERGENCE LINE ROUGHLY EXTENDING WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM 13N123W TO 22N114W. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE TROPICS TO THE SW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...
WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SE AND REACHES FROM 29N113W TO
25N115W TO 21N118W MON AFTERNOON...WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE
PACIFIC WELL N OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH RIDGE EXTENDING S-SE TO
NEAR 24N133W. SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS TO PROMOTE THE
N TO NE WINDS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND FRESH NE TRADEWINDS TO THE S
OF THE FRONT TO THE ITCZ...GENERALLY W OF 130W. THE HIGH ACROSS
THE NE PACIFIC WILL SHIFT S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAINTAIN FRESH NE TRADEWINDS S OF 20N AND W OF
130W THROUGH MON NIGHT....WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH TUE.

ELSEWHERE AT LOW LEVELS...GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA E OF
120W...WHERE ALL THE TYPICAL GAP AREA ARE SEEING MODERATE TO
FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN. MOST OF THESE GAP WIND LOCATIONS WILL
SEE WINDS MAXIMIZE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT...DUE TO THE ENHANCEMENT OF NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE COLD FRONT HAS JUST ENTERED TO FAR N
PORTIONS OF THIS GULF THIS EVENING...WITH S-SW 15-25 KT WINDS
OCCURRING N OF 26N AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN
A VERY NARROW BAND SE OF THE FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MON AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SE...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING W AROUND 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT MON.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS 20-25 KT ARE CURRENTLY
OBSERVED THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF TO NEAR 14.5N95W AND
WILL PULSE TO 30 KT OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN ON MON NIGHT...WITH
SEAS RESPONDING AND BUILDING FROM 8 FT TO 11 FT BY EACH MORNING.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
LATE THU...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W GULF OF
MEXICO...AND WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE THU NIGHT
AND REACH NEAR STORM FORCE EARLY FRI THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 15-25 KT WILL GENERALLY
CONTINUES ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF...WITH NOCTURNAL
MAXES PULSING TO 25-30 KT TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT...AND A MUCH
WEAKER EVENT ON TUE NIGHT. NE WINDS 15-25 KT ARE ALSO LIKELY TO
SPILL ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF FONSECA EACH NIGHT
DURING THE NIGHTTIME MAX ACROSS PAPAGAYO.

.GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 05N FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD 8-9 FT TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020403
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAR 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06.5N85.5W TO 05N90W TO 06N114W TO 04N125W TO
06N134W TO BEYOND 05N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 85.5W AND 96.5W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120
NM OF LINE FROM 13N123W TO 22N114W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE AND PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...CENTERED ALONG
90W...AND IS ACTING TO BLOCK UPSTREAM FLOW ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SPANS THE AREA BETWEEN 110W AND 140W
N OF 05N...WITH A SHARP DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE OFFSHORE OF S
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DIGGING SWD INTO THE AREA TO 20N. THIS SYSTEM
SUPPORTS A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF
THE SW U.S. WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW THROUGH 30N116W TO
21.5N130W TO 24N140W. ELEVATED CONVECTION OCCURRING IN DEEP
LAYERED SW FLOW CONTINUES TO YIELD LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATOFORM
PRECIP STREAMING ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND N
PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...N TO NE WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED TO AROUND 20 KT N OF THE FRONT W OF 127W...WHERE SEAS
ARE 8 TO 10 FT IN N SWELL. ACROSS THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH...A SHORT WAVE IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NE...LOCATED NEAR 22.5N118W. AN ENERGETIC ATMOSPHERE S THROUGH E
OF THE SHORTWAVE IS BOTH DRAWING MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE N AND NE
FROM THE TROPICS THERE...BUT ALSO ACTING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION
ALONG A CONVERGENCE LINE ROUGHLY EXTENDING WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM 13N123W TO 22N114W. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE TROPICS TO THE SW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...
WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SE AND REACHES FROM 29N113W TO
25N115W TO 21N118W MON AFTERNOON...WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE
PACIFIC WELL N OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH RIDGE EXTENDING S-SE TO
NEAR 24N133W. SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS TO PROMOTE THE
N TO NE WINDS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND FRESH NE TRADEWINDS TO THE S
OF THE FRONT TO THE ITCZ...GENERALLY W OF 130W. THE HIGH ACROSS
THE NE PACIFIC WILL SHIFT S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAINTAIN FRESH NE TRADEWINDS S OF 20N AND W OF
130W THROUGH MON NIGHT....WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH TUE.

ELSEWHERE AT LOW LEVELS...GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA E OF
120W...WHERE ALL THE TYPICAL GAP AREA ARE SEEING MODERATE TO
FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN. MOST OF THESE GAP WIND LOCATIONS WILL
SEE WINDS MAXIMIZE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT...DUE TO THE ENHANCEMENT OF NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE COLD FRONT HAS JUST ENTERED TO FAR N
PORTIONS OF THIS GULF THIS EVENING...WITH S-SW 15-25 KT WINDS
OCCURRING N OF 26N AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN
A VERY NARROW BAND SE OF THE FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MON AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SE...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING W AROUND 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT MON.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS 20-25 KT ARE CURRENTLY
OBSERVED THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF TO NEAR 14.5N95W AND
WILL PULSE TO 30 KT OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN ON MON NIGHT...WITH
SEAS RESPONDING AND BUILDING FROM 8 FT TO 11 FT BY EACH MORNING.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
LATE THU...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W GULF OF
MEXICO...AND WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE THU NIGHT
AND REACH NEAR STORM FORCE EARLY FRI THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 15-25 KT WILL GENERALLY
CONTINUES ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF...WITH NOCTURNAL
MAXES PULSING TO 25-30 KT TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT...AND A MUCH
WEAKER EVENT ON TUE NIGHT. NE WINDS 15-25 KT ARE ALSO LIKELY TO
SPILL ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF FONSECA EACH NIGHT
DURING THE NIGHTTIME MAX ACROSS PAPAGAYO.

.GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 05N FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD 8-9 FT TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020403
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAR 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06.5N85.5W TO 05N90W TO 06N114W TO 04N125W TO
06N134W TO BEYOND 05N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 85.5W AND 96.5W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120
NM OF LINE FROM 13N123W TO 22N114W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE AND PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...CENTERED ALONG
90W...AND IS ACTING TO BLOCK UPSTREAM FLOW ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SPANS THE AREA BETWEEN 110W AND 140W
N OF 05N...WITH A SHARP DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE OFFSHORE OF S
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DIGGING SWD INTO THE AREA TO 20N. THIS SYSTEM
SUPPORTS A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF
THE SW U.S. WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW THROUGH 30N116W TO
21.5N130W TO 24N140W. ELEVATED CONVECTION OCCURRING IN DEEP
LAYERED SW FLOW CONTINUES TO YIELD LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATOFORM
PRECIP STREAMING ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND N
PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...N TO NE WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED TO AROUND 20 KT N OF THE FRONT W OF 127W...WHERE SEAS
ARE 8 TO 10 FT IN N SWELL. ACROSS THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH...A SHORT WAVE IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NE...LOCATED NEAR 22.5N118W. AN ENERGETIC ATMOSPHERE S THROUGH E
OF THE SHORTWAVE IS BOTH DRAWING MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE N AND NE
FROM THE TROPICS THERE...BUT ALSO ACTING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION
ALONG A CONVERGENCE LINE ROUGHLY EXTENDING WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM 13N123W TO 22N114W. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE TROPICS TO THE SW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...
WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SE AND REACHES FROM 29N113W TO
25N115W TO 21N118W MON AFTERNOON...WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE
PACIFIC WELL N OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH RIDGE EXTENDING S-SE TO
NEAR 24N133W. SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS TO PROMOTE THE
N TO NE WINDS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND FRESH NE TRADEWINDS TO THE S
OF THE FRONT TO THE ITCZ...GENERALLY W OF 130W. THE HIGH ACROSS
THE NE PACIFIC WILL SHIFT S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAINTAIN FRESH NE TRADEWINDS S OF 20N AND W OF
130W THROUGH MON NIGHT....WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH TUE.

ELSEWHERE AT LOW LEVELS...GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA E OF
120W...WHERE ALL THE TYPICAL GAP AREA ARE SEEING MODERATE TO
FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN. MOST OF THESE GAP WIND LOCATIONS WILL
SEE WINDS MAXIMIZE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT...DUE TO THE ENHANCEMENT OF NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE COLD FRONT HAS JUST ENTERED TO FAR N
PORTIONS OF THIS GULF THIS EVENING...WITH S-SW 15-25 KT WINDS
OCCURRING N OF 26N AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN
A VERY NARROW BAND SE OF THE FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MON AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SE...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING W AROUND 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT MON.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS 20-25 KT ARE CURRENTLY
OBSERVED THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF TO NEAR 14.5N95W AND
WILL PULSE TO 30 KT OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN ON MON NIGHT...WITH
SEAS RESPONDING AND BUILDING FROM 8 FT TO 11 FT BY EACH MORNING.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
LATE THU...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W GULF OF
MEXICO...AND WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE THU NIGHT
AND REACH NEAR STORM FORCE EARLY FRI THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 15-25 KT WILL GENERALLY
CONTINUES ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF...WITH NOCTURNAL
MAXES PULSING TO 25-30 KT TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT...AND A MUCH
WEAKER EVENT ON TUE NIGHT. NE WINDS 15-25 KT ARE ALSO LIKELY TO
SPILL ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF FONSECA EACH NIGHT
DURING THE NIGHTTIME MAX ACROSS PAPAGAYO.

.GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 05N FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD 8-9 FT TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXNT20 KNHC 012331
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN MAR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 04N08W SW TO 01S14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04S24W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
05S38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-03N BETWEEN 10W-
29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA IN CENTRAL
AMERICA AND EXTENDS N ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF SUPPORTING
SUBSIDENCE AND FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS
ACROSS CENTRAL US AND EXTENDS S ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF. TO THE W...A 1021 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N96W.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO THE SW ACROSS THE NW
GULF REACHING NE MEXICO. A WARM FRONT IS FROM THE LOW TO THE E
ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. FROM THAT POINT...THE
FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY EXTENDING FROM 29N90W TO 29N83W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ACROSS THE W GULF FROM THE LOW CENTER
NEAR 28N96W TO 19N94W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOW AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND SURFACE
TROUGH. A SOUTH-EASTERLY GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING OVER THE NW GULF AND ALONG THE
COAST FROM THE N CENTRAL GULF TO THE W FL PANHANDLE AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THAT COVERS THE WHOLE BASIN.
PATCHES OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM 16N88W TO 11N62W AFFECTING THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE BASIN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OFF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE S
CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS PREVAIL. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT
WATERS SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THEN ENTERING THE W ATLANTIC FROM 29N80W TO
31N80W. FROM THIS LAST POINT...THE BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS INTO A
SURFACE TROUGH AND EXTENDS N REACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
TO THE E...A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM 29N67W TO
31N62W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED E OF THIS BOUNDARY
MAINLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 47W-58W. FARTHER EAST...A 1033 MB HIGH
CENTERED S OF THE AZORES PREVAILS EXTENDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. GENTLE TO MODERATE
EASTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE W ATLANTIC WILL TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL ZONE. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A COLD FRONT MOVING E ENHANCING
CONVECTION. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 012331
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN MAR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 04N08W SW TO 01S14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04S24W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
05S38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-03N BETWEEN 10W-
29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA IN CENTRAL
AMERICA AND EXTENDS N ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF SUPPORTING
SUBSIDENCE AND FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS
ACROSS CENTRAL US AND EXTENDS S ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF. TO THE W...A 1021 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N96W.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO THE SW ACROSS THE NW
GULF REACHING NE MEXICO. A WARM FRONT IS FROM THE LOW TO THE E
ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. FROM THAT POINT...THE
FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY EXTENDING FROM 29N90W TO 29N83W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ACROSS THE W GULF FROM THE LOW CENTER
NEAR 28N96W TO 19N94W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOW AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND SURFACE
TROUGH. A SOUTH-EASTERLY GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING OVER THE NW GULF AND ALONG THE
COAST FROM THE N CENTRAL GULF TO THE W FL PANHANDLE AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THAT COVERS THE WHOLE BASIN.
PATCHES OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM 16N88W TO 11N62W AFFECTING THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE BASIN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OFF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE S
CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS PREVAIL. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT
WATERS SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THEN ENTERING THE W ATLANTIC FROM 29N80W TO
31N80W. FROM THIS LAST POINT...THE BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS INTO A
SURFACE TROUGH AND EXTENDS N REACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
TO THE E...A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM 29N67W TO
31N62W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED E OF THIS BOUNDARY
MAINLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 47W-58W. FARTHER EAST...A 1033 MB HIGH
CENTERED S OF THE AZORES PREVAILS EXTENDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. GENTLE TO MODERATE
EASTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE W ATLANTIC WILL TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL ZONE. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A COLD FRONT MOVING E ENHANCING
CONVECTION. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 012331
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN MAR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 04N08W SW TO 01S14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04S24W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
05S38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-03N BETWEEN 10W-
29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA IN CENTRAL
AMERICA AND EXTENDS N ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF SUPPORTING
SUBSIDENCE AND FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS
ACROSS CENTRAL US AND EXTENDS S ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF. TO THE W...A 1021 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N96W.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO THE SW ACROSS THE NW
GULF REACHING NE MEXICO. A WARM FRONT IS FROM THE LOW TO THE E
ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. FROM THAT POINT...THE
FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY EXTENDING FROM 29N90W TO 29N83W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ACROSS THE W GULF FROM THE LOW CENTER
NEAR 28N96W TO 19N94W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOW AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND SURFACE
TROUGH. A SOUTH-EASTERLY GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING OVER THE NW GULF AND ALONG THE
COAST FROM THE N CENTRAL GULF TO THE W FL PANHANDLE AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THAT COVERS THE WHOLE BASIN.
PATCHES OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM 16N88W TO 11N62W AFFECTING THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE BASIN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OFF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE S
CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS PREVAIL. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT
WATERS SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THEN ENTERING THE W ATLANTIC FROM 29N80W TO
31N80W. FROM THIS LAST POINT...THE BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS INTO A
SURFACE TROUGH AND EXTENDS N REACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
TO THE E...A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM 29N67W TO
31N62W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED E OF THIS BOUNDARY
MAINLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 47W-58W. FARTHER EAST...A 1033 MB HIGH
CENTERED S OF THE AZORES PREVAILS EXTENDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. GENTLE TO MODERATE
EASTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE W ATLANTIC WILL TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL ZONE. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A COLD FRONT MOVING E ENHANCING
CONVECTION. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 012331
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN MAR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 04N08W SW TO 01S14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04S24W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
05S38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-03N BETWEEN 10W-
29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA IN CENTRAL
AMERICA AND EXTENDS N ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF SUPPORTING
SUBSIDENCE AND FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS
ACROSS CENTRAL US AND EXTENDS S ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF. TO THE W...A 1021 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N96W.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO THE SW ACROSS THE NW
GULF REACHING NE MEXICO. A WARM FRONT IS FROM THE LOW TO THE E
ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. FROM THAT POINT...THE
FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY EXTENDING FROM 29N90W TO 29N83W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ACROSS THE W GULF FROM THE LOW CENTER
NEAR 28N96W TO 19N94W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOW AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND SURFACE
TROUGH. A SOUTH-EASTERLY GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING OVER THE NW GULF AND ALONG THE
COAST FROM THE N CENTRAL GULF TO THE W FL PANHANDLE AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THAT COVERS THE WHOLE BASIN.
PATCHES OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM 16N88W TO 11N62W AFFECTING THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE BASIN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OFF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE S
CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS PREVAIL. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT
WATERS SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THEN ENTERING THE W ATLANTIC FROM 29N80W TO
31N80W. FROM THIS LAST POINT...THE BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS INTO A
SURFACE TROUGH AND EXTENDS N REACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
TO THE E...A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM 29N67W TO
31N62W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED E OF THIS BOUNDARY
MAINLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 47W-58W. FARTHER EAST...A 1033 MB HIGH
CENTERED S OF THE AZORES PREVAILS EXTENDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. GENTLE TO MODERATE
EASTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE W ATLANTIC WILL TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL ZONE. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A COLD FRONT MOVING E ENHANCING
CONVECTION. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 012331
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN MAR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 04N08W SW TO 01S14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04S24W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
05S38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-03N BETWEEN 10W-
29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA IN CENTRAL
AMERICA AND EXTENDS N ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF SUPPORTING
SUBSIDENCE AND FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS
ACROSS CENTRAL US AND EXTENDS S ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF. TO THE W...A 1021 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N96W.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO THE SW ACROSS THE NW
GULF REACHING NE MEXICO. A WARM FRONT IS FROM THE LOW TO THE E
ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. FROM THAT POINT...THE
FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY EXTENDING FROM 29N90W TO 29N83W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ACROSS THE W GULF FROM THE LOW CENTER
NEAR 28N96W TO 19N94W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOW AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND SURFACE
TROUGH. A SOUTH-EASTERLY GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING OVER THE NW GULF AND ALONG THE
COAST FROM THE N CENTRAL GULF TO THE W FL PANHANDLE AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THAT COVERS THE WHOLE BASIN.
PATCHES OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM 16N88W TO 11N62W AFFECTING THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE BASIN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OFF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE S
CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS PREVAIL. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT
WATERS SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THEN ENTERING THE W ATLANTIC FROM 29N80W TO
31N80W. FROM THIS LAST POINT...THE BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS INTO A
SURFACE TROUGH AND EXTENDS N REACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
TO THE E...A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM 29N67W TO
31N62W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED E OF THIS BOUNDARY
MAINLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 47W-58W. FARTHER EAST...A 1033 MB HIGH
CENTERED S OF THE AZORES PREVAILS EXTENDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. GENTLE TO MODERATE
EASTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE W ATLANTIC WILL TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL ZONE. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A COLD FRONT MOVING E ENHANCING
CONVECTION. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012218
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N84W TO 04N98W TO 06N112W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 80W
AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE
FROM 10N127W TO 17N117.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE AND PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...CENTERED ALONG
90W...AND IS ACTING TO BLOCK UPSTREAM FLOW ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SPANS THE AREA BETWEEN 110W AND 140W
N OF 05N...WITH A SHARP DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE OFFSHORE OF S
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IS DIGGING SWD INTO THE AREA TO 25N. THIS
SYSTEM SUPPORTS A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION OF THE SW U.S. WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW THROUGH
30N117W TO 25N123W TO 25N140W. ELEVATED CONVECTION YIELDING
LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATOFORM PRECIP STREAMING ONSHORE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND N PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AT THE
SURFACE...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT PREVAIL N OF FRONT W OF
127W...WHERE SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT IN N SWELL. ACROSS THE BASE OF
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH...A SHORT WAVE IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT
TO THE NE...LOCATED ALONG 120W AND S OF 21N. AN ENERGETIC
ATMOSPHERE S THROUGH E OF THE SHORTWAVE IS BOTH DRAWING MIDDLE
LEVEL MOISTURE N AND NE FROM THE TROPICS THERE...BUT ALSO ACTING
TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG A CONVERGENCE LINE ROUGHLY EXTENDING
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 10N127W TO 17N117.5W. THE MEAN UPPER
TROUGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS
AND CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE TROPICS TO THE SW
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SE AND REACHES
FROM 29N113W TO 25N115W TO 21N118W MON AFTERNOON...WHERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE
PACIFIC WELL N OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH RIDGE EXTENDING S-SE TO
NEAR 25N134W. SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS TO PROMOTE THE
N TO NE WINDS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND FRESH NE TRADEWINDS TO THE S
OF THE FRONT TO THE ITCZ...GENERALLY W OF 130W. THE HIGH ACROSS
THE NE PACIFIC WILL SHIFT S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAINTAIN FRESH NE TRADEWINDS S OF 20N AND W OF
130W THROUGH MON NIGHT....WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH TUE.

ELSEWHERE AT LOW LEVELS...GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA E OF
120W...WHERE ALL THE TYPICAL GAP AREA ARE SEEING MODERATE TO
FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...S-SW 15-25 KT WINDS AT 10-15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AREA EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT N OF 30N THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THEN
BECOME MORE SW TO W ON MON AS THE FRONT SINKS ACROSS N
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED
THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF TO NEAR 14N95.5W WILL PULSE
TO 30 KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN ON MON
NIGHT...WITH SEAS RESPONDING AND BUILDING FROM 8 FT TO 10 FT BY
EACH MORNING. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY WIND EVENT IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN LATE THU...QUICKLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE
THU NIGHT AND REACH NEAR STORM FORCE EARLY FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...AND PULSE TO 25-30 KT TONIGHT AND MON NIGHTS...AND A
MUCH WEAKER EVENT ON TUE NIGHT.

.GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 05N FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD 8-9 FT TONIGHT AND MON.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXNT20 KNHC 011729
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN MAR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL 1200 UTC MONDAY MORNING. THE GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL RESUME AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 04N06W SW TO 00N12W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 03S20W TO 04S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 04S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 175 NM OF
THE ITCZ W OF 17W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 02S-04N BETWEEN 06W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST TO NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE GULF WITH EAST TO SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT E OF
94W. A 1019 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE TX COAST NEAR
28N96W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE MEXICO
COAST NEAR 23N98W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO
29N90W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SSE FROM THE LOW AND ACROSS THE
SW GULF TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W. NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT
ARE E OF THE LOW AND STATIONARY FRONT. A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS WITH PATCHES OF FOG ARE OVER THE N GULF FROM 28N TO
THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 84W AND 95W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW TO THE N
GULF COAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING OVER THE NW GULF AND ALONG THE
COAST FROM THE N CENTRAL GULF TO THE W FL PANHANDLE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE COVERING THE ENTIRE BASIN. PATCHES
OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS N OF A
LINE FROM 16N88W TO 11N62W INCLUDING JAMAICA...PUERTO RICO...AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT
WATERS WHICH SUPPORTS CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE CAROLINA AND GEORGIA
COASTS TO 31N80W TO 28N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1027 MB LOW NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS SW TO 31N63W TO 29N66W
TO 28N71W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT.
FARTHER EAST...A 1036 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES IS
PRODUCING 15 TO 20 KT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC S OF 32N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL ZONE. THE FRONT
WILL TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
E OVER THE SW N ATLC. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011540
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAR 1 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

TROUGH FROM 07N82W TO 05N89W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N89W TO 04N96W
TO 05N127W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 36N122W TO
22N136W. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH AXIS ENHANCING
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF
A LINE FROM 11N126W TO 19N116W.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N118W TO 25N131W TO 26N137W. FRESH
TO OCCASIONALLY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE GENERATING
8 TO 10 FEET COMBINED SEAS.

...GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS N-NE WINDS TO 30
KNOTS. MODEL DATA INDICATES 20 TO 30 KT WINDS FOR MOST OF THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT 20-30 KT WINDS WITH SOME 12-HR PERIODS OF
20-25 KT THROUGH TUE...WITH MAX SEAS TO 9-10 FT. LOOKING AHEAD
A STRONG GALE WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE FRI MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TUE...WITH SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 9-10 FT.

GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT EARLY MON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUE...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 8-9 FT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH SW WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY EXCEED 20
KT N OF 30N TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NW MEXICO.

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011540
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAR 1 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

TROUGH FROM 07N82W TO 05N89W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N89W TO 04N96W
TO 05N127W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 36N122W TO
22N136W. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH AXIS ENHANCING
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF
A LINE FROM 11N126W TO 19N116W.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N118W TO 25N131W TO 26N137W. FRESH
TO OCCASIONALLY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE GENERATING
8 TO 10 FEET COMBINED SEAS.

...GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS N-NE WINDS TO 30
KNOTS. MODEL DATA INDICATES 20 TO 30 KT WINDS FOR MOST OF THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT 20-30 KT WINDS WITH SOME 12-HR PERIODS OF
20-25 KT THROUGH TUE...WITH MAX SEAS TO 9-10 FT. LOOKING AHEAD
A STRONG GALE WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE FRI MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TUE...WITH SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 9-10 FT.

GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT EARLY MON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUE...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 8-9 FT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH SW WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY EXCEED 20
KT N OF 30N TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NW MEXICO.

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 011145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN MAR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 04N08W SW TO 01N11W TO 01S17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04S27W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
03S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 01S TO
01N BETWEEN 07W AND 12W AND FROM 08S TO 01N BETWEEN 21W AND 33W.
A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01S
TO 03N W OF 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS...ONE OVER THE NEW JERSEY AND NEW YORK BAY AND ANOTHER
OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND
EXTENDS S ACROSS THE GULF. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT E OF 95W. OVER THE FAR
WESTERN GULF...A 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N96W FROM
WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 24N94W TO 18N94W. A
STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ALONG 25N96W SW TO
THE NE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N97W. MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH MOIST AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE SW N ATLC BY SURFACE EASTERLY FLOW SUPPORT
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF
26N. THE GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES INDICATE MEDIUM TO HIGH FOG
PROBABILITIES W OF 93W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 88W.
OBSERVATIONS OVER THE GULF WATERS AND ALONG THE COASTLINE VERIFY
FOG CONDITIONS N OF 25N W. THE FRONT AND THE LOW PRESSURE ARE
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS. RIDGING WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN...THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES TODAY. HOWEVER...NO
DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TRADES OF 20 TO
25 KT DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING
TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 15 KT PREVAIL. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT
WATERS THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION EXTENDS INTO
THE SW N ATLC AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N63W SW TO 28N69W TO
26N75W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WITHIN 150 NM
AHEAD OF IT. OTHERWISE...THE AZORES HIGH ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB
CENTER NEAR 34N24W COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND SUPPORTS FAIR
WEATHER. WITH LITTLE TO NONE SUPPORT ALOFT...THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY...LEAVING SURFACE RIDGING AS
THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 011145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN MAR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 04N08W SW TO 01N11W TO 01S17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04S27W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
03S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 01S TO
01N BETWEEN 07W AND 12W AND FROM 08S TO 01N BETWEEN 21W AND 33W.
A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01S
TO 03N W OF 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS...ONE OVER THE NEW JERSEY AND NEW YORK BAY AND ANOTHER
OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND
EXTENDS S ACROSS THE GULF. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT E OF 95W. OVER THE FAR
WESTERN GULF...A 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N96W FROM
WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 24N94W TO 18N94W. A
STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ALONG 25N96W SW TO
THE NE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N97W. MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH MOIST AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE SW N ATLC BY SURFACE EASTERLY FLOW SUPPORT
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF
26N. THE GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES INDICATE MEDIUM TO HIGH FOG
PROBABILITIES W OF 93W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 88W.
OBSERVATIONS OVER THE GULF WATERS AND ALONG THE COASTLINE VERIFY
FOG CONDITIONS N OF 25N W. THE FRONT AND THE LOW PRESSURE ARE
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS. RIDGING WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN...THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES TODAY. HOWEVER...NO
DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TRADES OF 20 TO
25 KT DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING
TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 15 KT PREVAIL. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT
WATERS THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION EXTENDS INTO
THE SW N ATLC AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N63W SW TO 28N69W TO
26N75W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WITHIN 150 NM
AHEAD OF IT. OTHERWISE...THE AZORES HIGH ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB
CENTER NEAR 34N24W COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND SUPPORTS FAIR
WEATHER. WITH LITTLE TO NONE SUPPORT ALOFT...THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY...LEAVING SURFACE RIDGING AS
THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011005
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND IN COLOMBIA FROM 09N75W TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA NEAR 04N77W TO 00N81W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 00N TO 02N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W.

SURFACE TROUGH FROM 07N82W TO 06N87W TO 04N91W. ITCZ FROM 04N91W
TO 05N120W TO 06N127W TO 04N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 35N121W
CALIFORNIA COAST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH
32N123W...TO 22N129W TO 10N131W...TO 01N134W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO
19N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...THROUGH 30N120W...TO 27N130W TO 29N138W. THE FRONT
IS BRING NORTHERLY WINDS THAT RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS THAT RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 FEET.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE 18-HOUR FORECAST GIVES 20 TO 25
KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR ONLY 6 HOURS. THE 42-HOUR
FORECAST GIVES 20 TO 25 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ONLY FOR 6
HOURS ALSO.

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO
30 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM
28/1540 UTC SHOW 25 KNOTS. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOTS MOSTLY...WITH
SOME 12-HOUR PERIODS OF ONLY 20 TO 25 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE
EXPECTED TO RESUME LATE TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT
OCCURRING ON SUN AND MON NIGHTS...AND A MUCH WEAKER EVENT ON TUE
NIGHT.

THE GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT
TILL MON NIGHT WHEN GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO 20-25
KT.

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011005
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND IN COLOMBIA FROM 09N75W TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA NEAR 04N77W TO 00N81W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 00N TO 02N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W.

SURFACE TROUGH FROM 07N82W TO 06N87W TO 04N91W. ITCZ FROM 04N91W
TO 05N120W TO 06N127W TO 04N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 35N121W
CALIFORNIA COAST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH
32N123W...TO 22N129W TO 10N131W...TO 01N134W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO
19N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...THROUGH 30N120W...TO 27N130W TO 29N138W. THE FRONT
IS BRING NORTHERLY WINDS THAT RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS THAT RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 FEET.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE 18-HOUR FORECAST GIVES 20 TO 25
KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR ONLY 6 HOURS. THE 42-HOUR
FORECAST GIVES 20 TO 25 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ONLY FOR 6
HOURS ALSO.

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO
30 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM
28/1540 UTC SHOW 25 KNOTS. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOTS MOSTLY...WITH
SOME 12-HOUR PERIODS OF ONLY 20 TO 25 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE
EXPECTED TO RESUME LATE TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT
OCCURRING ON SUN AND MON NIGHTS...AND A MUCH WEAKER EVENT ON TUE
NIGHT.

THE GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT
TILL MON NIGHT WHEN GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO 20-25
KT.

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011005
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND IN COLOMBIA FROM 09N75W TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA NEAR 04N77W TO 00N81W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 00N TO 02N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W.

SURFACE TROUGH FROM 07N82W TO 06N87W TO 04N91W. ITCZ FROM 04N91W
TO 05N120W TO 06N127W TO 04N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 35N121W
CALIFORNIA COAST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH
32N123W...TO 22N129W TO 10N131W...TO 01N134W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO
19N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...THROUGH 30N120W...TO 27N130W TO 29N138W. THE FRONT
IS BRING NORTHERLY WINDS THAT RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS THAT RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 FEET.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE 18-HOUR FORECAST GIVES 20 TO 25
KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR ONLY 6 HOURS. THE 42-HOUR
FORECAST GIVES 20 TO 25 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ONLY FOR 6
HOURS ALSO.

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO
30 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM
28/1540 UTC SHOW 25 KNOTS. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOTS MOSTLY...WITH
SOME 12-HOUR PERIODS OF ONLY 20 TO 25 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE
EXPECTED TO RESUME LATE TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT
OCCURRING ON SUN AND MON NIGHTS...AND A MUCH WEAKER EVENT ON TUE
NIGHT.

THE GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT
TILL MON NIGHT WHEN GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO 20-25
KT.

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 010601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN MAR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W SW TO 02S19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
04S37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 05W AND 15W...FROM 07S TO 02N BETWEEN
20W AND 30W AND FROM 02S TO 04N W OF 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER
THE NE CONUS COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDS S
ACROSS THE GULF. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE NORTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KT E OF 95W...HIGHEST ON THE
NORTHERN GULF N OF 26N WHERE THERE IS A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT. OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF...A 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 27N96W FROM WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG
23N95W TO 20N93W. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
ALONG 24N96W SW TO THE NE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N97W. MIDDLE TO
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH MOIST
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SW N ATLC BY SURFACE NE TO E FLOW SUPPORT
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF
25N. THE GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES INDICATE MEDIUM TO HIGH FOG
PROBABILITIES W OF 94W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 88W.
OBSERVATIONS OVER THE GULF REPORT FOG CONDITIONS N OF 27N W OF
89W. THE FRONT AND THE LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY
SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS. RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN
AND ENHANCE PASSING SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO...MONA
PASSAGE...DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CUBA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF
14N. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR DOMINATES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TRADES OF 20
TO 25 KT DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 15 KT PREVAIL. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER ISLAND TONIGHT...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS
AND PASSING SHOWERS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION IS ANALYZED AS
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS...EXTENDING FROM
30N66W SW TO 27N72W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS W
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE AZORES HIGH ANCHORED BY
A 1038 MB CENTER NEAR 34N25W COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND
SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. WITH LITTLE TO NONE SUPPORT ALOFT...THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SW N ATLC SUNDAY MORNING
...LEAVING SURFACE RIDGING AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 010601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN MAR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W SW TO 02S19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
04S37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 05W AND 15W...FROM 07S TO 02N BETWEEN
20W AND 30W AND FROM 02S TO 04N W OF 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER
THE NE CONUS COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDS S
ACROSS THE GULF. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE NORTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KT E OF 95W...HIGHEST ON THE
NORTHERN GULF N OF 26N WHERE THERE IS A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT. OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF...A 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 27N96W FROM WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG
23N95W TO 20N93W. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
ALONG 24N96W SW TO THE NE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N97W. MIDDLE TO
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH MOIST
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SW N ATLC BY SURFACE NE TO E FLOW SUPPORT
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF
25N. THE GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES INDICATE MEDIUM TO HIGH FOG
PROBABILITIES W OF 94W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 88W.
OBSERVATIONS OVER THE GULF REPORT FOG CONDITIONS N OF 27N W OF
89W. THE FRONT AND THE LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY
SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS. RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN
AND ENHANCE PASSING SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO...MONA
PASSAGE...DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CUBA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF
14N. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR DOMINATES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TRADES OF 20
TO 25 KT DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 15 KT PREVAIL. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER ISLAND TONIGHT...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS
AND PASSING SHOWERS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION IS ANALYZED AS
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS...EXTENDING FROM
30N66W SW TO 27N72W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS W
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE AZORES HIGH ANCHORED BY
A 1038 MB CENTER NEAR 34N25W COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND
SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. WITH LITTLE TO NONE SUPPORT ALOFT...THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SW N ATLC SUNDAY MORNING
...LEAVING SURFACE RIDGING AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 010601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN MAR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W SW TO 02S19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
04S37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 05W AND 15W...FROM 07S TO 02N BETWEEN
20W AND 30W AND FROM 02S TO 04N W OF 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER
THE NE CONUS COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDS S
ACROSS THE GULF. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE NORTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KT E OF 95W...HIGHEST ON THE
NORTHERN GULF N OF 26N WHERE THERE IS A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT. OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF...A 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 27N96W FROM WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG
23N95W TO 20N93W. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
ALONG 24N96W SW TO THE NE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N97W. MIDDLE TO
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH MOIST
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SW N ATLC BY SURFACE NE TO E FLOW SUPPORT
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF
25N. THE GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES INDICATE MEDIUM TO HIGH FOG
PROBABILITIES W OF 94W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 88W.
OBSERVATIONS OVER THE GULF REPORT FOG CONDITIONS N OF 27N W OF
89W. THE FRONT AND THE LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY
SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS. RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN
AND ENHANCE PASSING SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO...MONA
PASSAGE...DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CUBA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF
14N. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR DOMINATES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TRADES OF 20
TO 25 KT DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 15 KT PREVAIL. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER ISLAND TONIGHT...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS
AND PASSING SHOWERS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION IS ANALYZED AS
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS...EXTENDING FROM
30N66W SW TO 27N72W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS W
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE AZORES HIGH ANCHORED BY
A 1038 MB CENTER NEAR 34N25W COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND
SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. WITH LITTLE TO NONE SUPPORT ALOFT...THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SW N ATLC SUNDAY MORNING
...LEAVING SURFACE RIDGING AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 010601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN MAR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W SW TO 02S19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
04S37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 05W AND 15W...FROM 07S TO 02N BETWEEN
20W AND 30W AND FROM 02S TO 04N W OF 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER
THE NE CONUS COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDS S
ACROSS THE GULF. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE NORTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KT E OF 95W...HIGHEST ON THE
NORTHERN GULF N OF 26N WHERE THERE IS A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT. OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF...A 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 27N96W FROM WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG
23N95W TO 20N93W. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
ALONG 24N96W SW TO THE NE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N97W. MIDDLE TO
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH MOIST
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SW N ATLC BY SURFACE NE TO E FLOW SUPPORT
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF
25N. THE GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES INDICATE MEDIUM TO HIGH FOG
PROBABILITIES W OF 94W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 88W.
OBSERVATIONS OVER THE GULF REPORT FOG CONDITIONS N OF 27N W OF
89W. THE FRONT AND THE LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY
SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS. RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN
AND ENHANCE PASSING SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO...MONA
PASSAGE...DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CUBA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF
14N. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR DOMINATES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TRADES OF 20
TO 25 KT DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 15 KT PREVAIL. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER ISLAND TONIGHT...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS
AND PASSING SHOWERS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION IS ANALYZED AS
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS...EXTENDING FROM
30N66W SW TO 27N72W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS W
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE AZORES HIGH ANCHORED BY
A 1038 MB CENTER NEAR 34N25W COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND
SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. WITH LITTLE TO NONE SUPPORT ALOFT...THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SW N ATLC SUNDAY MORNING
...LEAVING SURFACE RIDGING AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010315
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA
RICA AT 08.5N83W TO 04N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE
THAT THE ITCZ FORMS AND THEN CONTINUES W TO 03.5N116W TO
BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
SE OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM OF 04N85W.

...DISCUSSION...

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH HAS ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING S FROM
32N126W TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 02N131W. AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER HONDURAS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING SW TO 09N110W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND
THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N116W TO 10N127W. THE RESULTANT
DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE WITHIN 330 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 10N126W TO 20N112W...THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES ENE
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
EVENTUALLY FANNING OUT E OF FLORIDA. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE
SMALL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SE PORTION ALONG THE
LINE FROM 04N83W TO 03N88W QUICKLY EVAPORATES IN THE DRY UPPER
AIR DOMINATING THE TROPICS TO THE E OF 102W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N138W TO 16N102W. A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 32N118W TO 29.5N131W WILL CONTINUE TO SWING SE
INTO THE NE PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TONIGHT...ALL TO THE NE
OF THE RIDGE WITH POST-FRONTAL N-NE FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT
WINDS...WITH 8-11 FT SEAS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 28N
BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT SW TO ALONG
25N ON SUN. BY MON NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM 17-23N BETWEEN 132-140W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. NORTHERLY
SWELLS WILL MIX WILL CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL RESULTING IN
COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS ELSEWHERE
N OF 10N W OF 122W ON MON. A SECONDARY SURGE WILL INCREASE THE N
WINDS TO 20-25 KT AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 120-
130W ON TUE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...S-SW 15-25 KT WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED TO
THE N OF 30N WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT EARLY SUN...THEN INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT AGAIN ON MON EVENING.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED
WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH MON...THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS
ON MON EVENING. THE NEXT NORTHERLY WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN LATE THU...QUICKLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE THU NIGHT AND
REACH NEAR STORM FORCE EARLY FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO
RESUME LATE TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING ON SUN
AND MON NIGHTS...AND A MUCH WEAKER EVENT ON TUE NIGHT.

.GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT TILL
MON NIGHT WHEN GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010315
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA
RICA AT 08.5N83W TO 04N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE
THAT THE ITCZ FORMS AND THEN CONTINUES W TO 03.5N116W TO
BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
SE OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM OF 04N85W.

...DISCUSSION...

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH HAS ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING S FROM
32N126W TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 02N131W. AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER HONDURAS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING SW TO 09N110W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND
THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N116W TO 10N127W. THE RESULTANT
DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE WITHIN 330 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 10N126W TO 20N112W...THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES ENE
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
EVENTUALLY FANNING OUT E OF FLORIDA. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE
SMALL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SE PORTION ALONG THE
LINE FROM 04N83W TO 03N88W QUICKLY EVAPORATES IN THE DRY UPPER
AIR DOMINATING THE TROPICS TO THE E OF 102W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N138W TO 16N102W. A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 32N118W TO 29.5N131W WILL CONTINUE TO SWING SE
INTO THE NE PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TONIGHT...ALL TO THE NE
OF THE RIDGE WITH POST-FRONTAL N-NE FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT
WINDS...WITH 8-11 FT SEAS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 28N
BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT SW TO ALONG
25N ON SUN. BY MON NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM 17-23N BETWEEN 132-140W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. NORTHERLY
SWELLS WILL MIX WILL CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL RESULTING IN
COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS ELSEWHERE
N OF 10N W OF 122W ON MON. A SECONDARY SURGE WILL INCREASE THE N
WINDS TO 20-25 KT AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 120-
130W ON TUE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...S-SW 15-25 KT WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED TO
THE N OF 30N WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT EARLY SUN...THEN INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT AGAIN ON MON EVENING.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED
WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH MON...THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS
ON MON EVENING. THE NEXT NORTHERLY WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN LATE THU...QUICKLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE THU NIGHT AND
REACH NEAR STORM FORCE EARLY FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO
RESUME LATE TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING ON SUN
AND MON NIGHTS...AND A MUCH WEAKER EVENT ON TUE NIGHT.

.GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT TILL
MON NIGHT WHEN GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010315
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA
RICA AT 08.5N83W TO 04N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE
THAT THE ITCZ FORMS AND THEN CONTINUES W TO 03.5N116W TO
BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
SE OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM OF 04N85W.

...DISCUSSION...

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH HAS ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING S FROM
32N126W TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 02N131W. AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER HONDURAS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING SW TO 09N110W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND
THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N116W TO 10N127W. THE RESULTANT
DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE WITHIN 330 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 10N126W TO 20N112W...THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES ENE
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
EVENTUALLY FANNING OUT E OF FLORIDA. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE
SMALL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SE PORTION ALONG THE
LINE FROM 04N83W TO 03N88W QUICKLY EVAPORATES IN THE DRY UPPER
AIR DOMINATING THE TROPICS TO THE E OF 102W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N138W TO 16N102W. A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 32N118W TO 29.5N131W WILL CONTINUE TO SWING SE
INTO THE NE PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TONIGHT...ALL TO THE NE
OF THE RIDGE WITH POST-FRONTAL N-NE FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT
WINDS...WITH 8-11 FT SEAS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 28N
BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT SW TO ALONG
25N ON SUN. BY MON NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM 17-23N BETWEEN 132-140W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. NORTHERLY
SWELLS WILL MIX WILL CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL RESULTING IN
COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS ELSEWHERE
N OF 10N W OF 122W ON MON. A SECONDARY SURGE WILL INCREASE THE N
WINDS TO 20-25 KT AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 120-
130W ON TUE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...S-SW 15-25 KT WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED TO
THE N OF 30N WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT EARLY SUN...THEN INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT AGAIN ON MON EVENING.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED
WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH MON...THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS
ON MON EVENING. THE NEXT NORTHERLY WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN LATE THU...QUICKLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE THU NIGHT AND
REACH NEAR STORM FORCE EARLY FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO
RESUME LATE TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING ON SUN
AND MON NIGHTS...AND A MUCH WEAKER EVENT ON TUE NIGHT.

.GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT TILL
MON NIGHT WHEN GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT.

$$
NELSON


000
AXNT20 KNHC 282326
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT OFF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N08W TO 01S16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04S28W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
04S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-07S BETWEEN
21W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1044 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE NE US IS PROVIDING A GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E SURFACE
FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW
TX NEAR 29N98W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W. WINDS E OF
THE TROUGH REMAIN EASTERLY AND MODERATE WHILE TO THE W...SLIGHT
TO GENTLE NE WINDS PREVAIL. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
ALONG THE TROUGH. TO THE E...A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF AND EXTENDING E ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC. IT BEGINS AS A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT FROM 22N95W TO 24N91W...THEN IT TRANSITIONS TO A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT AND CONTINUES TO 24N85W TO 25N81W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. THE COMBINATION
OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE EXIT REGION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W GULF WILL
PERSIST WITH CONVECTION. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE
WEAKENING OVER THE SE GULF. THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE E GULF IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STABLE ATMOSPHERE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TO THE
E...AN INVERTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADE WINDS AND GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. FOR MORE
DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE.
SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND
SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THESE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 MB LOW N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS SW INTO OUR AREA AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM
31N65W TO 26N80W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE EXIT REGION
OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS COMBINING WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE E GULF...ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE FRONT. TO THE E...A LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC S OF 32N. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL E ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF N MOROCCO. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND LATER
DISSIPATE BUT STILL ENHANCING CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 282326
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT OFF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N08W TO 01S16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04S28W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
04S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-07S BETWEEN
21W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1044 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE NE US IS PROVIDING A GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E SURFACE
FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW
TX NEAR 29N98W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W. WINDS E OF
THE TROUGH REMAIN EASTERLY AND MODERATE WHILE TO THE W...SLIGHT
TO GENTLE NE WINDS PREVAIL. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
ALONG THE TROUGH. TO THE E...A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF AND EXTENDING E ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC. IT BEGINS AS A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT FROM 22N95W TO 24N91W...THEN IT TRANSITIONS TO A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT AND CONTINUES TO 24N85W TO 25N81W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. THE COMBINATION
OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE EXIT REGION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W GULF WILL
PERSIST WITH CONVECTION. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE
WEAKENING OVER THE SE GULF. THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE E GULF IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STABLE ATMOSPHERE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TO THE
E...AN INVERTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADE WINDS AND GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. FOR MORE
DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE.
SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND
SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THESE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 MB LOW N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS SW INTO OUR AREA AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM
31N65W TO 26N80W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE EXIT REGION
OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS COMBINING WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE E GULF...ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE FRONT. TO THE E...A LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC S OF 32N. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL E ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF N MOROCCO. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND LATER
DISSIPATE BUT STILL ENHANCING CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 282326
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT OFF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N08W TO 01S16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04S28W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
04S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-07S BETWEEN
21W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1044 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE NE US IS PROVIDING A GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E SURFACE
FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW
TX NEAR 29N98W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W. WINDS E OF
THE TROUGH REMAIN EASTERLY AND MODERATE WHILE TO THE W...SLIGHT
TO GENTLE NE WINDS PREVAIL. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
ALONG THE TROUGH. TO THE E...A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF AND EXTENDING E ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC. IT BEGINS AS A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT FROM 22N95W TO 24N91W...THEN IT TRANSITIONS TO A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT AND CONTINUES TO 24N85W TO 25N81W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. THE COMBINATION
OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE EXIT REGION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W GULF WILL
PERSIST WITH CONVECTION. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE
WEAKENING OVER THE SE GULF. THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE E GULF IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STABLE ATMOSPHERE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TO THE
E...AN INVERTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADE WINDS AND GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. FOR MORE
DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE.
SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND
SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THESE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 MB LOW N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS SW INTO OUR AREA AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM
31N65W TO 26N80W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE EXIT REGION
OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS COMBINING WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE E GULF...ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE FRONT. TO THE E...A LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC S OF 32N. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL E ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF N MOROCCO. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND LATER
DISSIPATE BUT STILL ENHANCING CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282156
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA
RICA AT 08.5N83W TO 04N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE
THAT THE ITCZ FORMS AND THEN CONTINUES W BETWEEN 03-06N TO AN
EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 06N127W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF THE TROUGH AND
CONTINUES W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N77W TO
03N88W.

A N TO S ORIENTATED TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 05N127W
TO 12N125W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.5N117W TO 09N129W.

...DISCUSSION...
 ZCZC  280154
TTAA00 KMIA DDHHMM
A POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH HAS ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING S FROM
32N125W TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 03N132W. AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN THE W
CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 07N106W. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE
SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH THAT IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE WITHIN 600 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
10N130W TO 20N110W...THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES NE ACROSS
CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...EVENTUALLY
FANNING OUT OVER FLORIDA TO THE S OF 30N WHERE IT IS FEEDING
INTO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE SMALL
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION OVER THE  FAR SE PORTION ALONG THE LINE
FROM 04N77W TO 03N88W QUICKLY EVAPORATES IN THE DRY UPPER AIR
DOMINATING THE TROPICS TO THE E OF 106W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N138W TO 14N97W. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWING INTO THE NE PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO NE OF THE
RIDGE TONIGHT WITH THE POST-FRONTAL N-NE FLOW INCREASING TO 20-
25 KT WINDS...WITH 8-11 FT SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD S
INTO THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 125-135W TONIGHT...
AND SHIFT SW TO ALONG 25N ON SUN. BY MON NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 17-23N BETWEEN 132-140W WITH
SEAS TO 9 FT. NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL MIX WILL CROSS EQUATORIAL S
SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS ELSEWHERE N OF 10N W OF 122W ON MON. A
SECONDARY SURGE WILL INCREASE THE N WINDS TO 20-25 KT AGAIN
ACROSS THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 120-130W ON TUE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...S-SW 15-25 KT WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED TO
THE N OF 30N WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT EARLY SUN...THEN INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT AGAIN ON MON EVENING.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-30 WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT ON SUN AND THEN CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH
MON...THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON MON EVENING. THE NEXT
NORTHERLY WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATE THU...QUICKLY
INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE THU NIGHT AND REACH NEAR STORM FORCE
EARLY FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO
RESUME TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING ON SUN AND
MON NIGHTS...AND A MUCH WEAKER EVENT ON TUE NIGHT.

.GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT TILL
MON NIGHT WHEN GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282156
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA
RICA AT 08.5N83W TO 04N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE
THAT THE ITCZ FORMS AND THEN CONTINUES W BETWEEN 03-06N TO AN
EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 06N127W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF THE TROUGH AND
CONTINUES W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N77W TO
03N88W.

A N TO S ORIENTATED TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 05N127W
TO 12N125W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.5N117W TO 09N129W.

...DISCUSSION...
 ZCZC  280154
TTAA00 KMIA DDHHMM
A POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH HAS ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING S FROM
32N125W TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 03N132W. AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN THE W
CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 07N106W. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE
SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH THAT IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE WITHIN 600 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
10N130W TO 20N110W...THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES NE ACROSS
CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...EVENTUALLY
FANNING OUT OVER FLORIDA TO THE S OF 30N WHERE IT IS FEEDING
INTO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE SMALL
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION OVER THE  FAR SE PORTION ALONG THE LINE
FROM 04N77W TO 03N88W QUICKLY EVAPORATES IN THE DRY UPPER AIR
DOMINATING THE TROPICS TO THE E OF 106W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N138W TO 14N97W. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWING INTO THE NE PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO NE OF THE
RIDGE TONIGHT WITH THE POST-FRONTAL N-NE FLOW INCREASING TO 20-
25 KT WINDS...WITH 8-11 FT SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD S
INTO THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 125-135W TONIGHT...
AND SHIFT SW TO ALONG 25N ON SUN. BY MON NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 17-23N BETWEEN 132-140W WITH
SEAS TO 9 FT. NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL MIX WILL CROSS EQUATORIAL S
SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS ELSEWHERE N OF 10N W OF 122W ON MON. A
SECONDARY SURGE WILL INCREASE THE N WINDS TO 20-25 KT AGAIN
ACROSS THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 120-130W ON TUE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...S-SW 15-25 KT WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED TO
THE N OF 30N WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT EARLY SUN...THEN INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT AGAIN ON MON EVENING.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-30 WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT ON SUN AND THEN CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH
MON...THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON MON EVENING. THE NEXT
NORTHERLY WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATE THU...QUICKLY
INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE THU NIGHT AND REACH NEAR STORM FORCE
EARLY FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO
RESUME TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING ON SUN AND
MON NIGHTS...AND A MUCH WEAKER EVENT ON TUE NIGHT.

.GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT TILL
MON NIGHT WHEN GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT.

$$
NELSON


000
AXNT20 KNHC 281746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W AND SW TO 01S22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 03S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
03S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1045 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER PENNSYLVANIA IS PROVIDING NE TO E SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KT ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
TX COAST NEAR 27N94W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W. WINDS
TO THE W OF THE TROUGH ARE FROM THE W TO NW AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTERLIES TO THE E OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLC TO S FL NEAR FT LAUDERDALE TO THE
GULF NEAR 25N82 TO 22N91W. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE FROM THE EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM
AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST E OF 91W...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN CENTRAL FL AND 88W.
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SE GULF WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE SW GULF THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT. THEREFORE...EXPECT AN OVERALL DECREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH
THROUGH SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST E OF CENTRAL AMERICA PROVIDES
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN. AN INVERTED UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OFF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. E TO NE TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW IS SUPPORTING PATCHES OF SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM 15N84W TO
11N62W. THIS INCLUDES THE GULF OF HONDURAS...JAMAICA...PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND...SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 MB LOW N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION SUPPORTS A FRONT THAT
EXTENDS SW AND INTO OUR AREA AS A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 32N64W
TO 28N75W TO THE FL COAST NEAR 26N80W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ALONG THE EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS COMBINING WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E
GULF...ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND INTO THE ATLC WITHIN 175 NM NW OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO WITHIN 50 NM S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A LARGE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC S OF
32N. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL E ATLC IS PRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF N MOROCCO. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING OFF THE COAST OF N AND CENTRAL FL INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W AND SW TO 01S22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 03S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
03S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1045 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER PENNSYLVANIA IS PROVIDING NE TO E SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KT ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
TX COAST NEAR 27N94W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W. WINDS
TO THE W OF THE TROUGH ARE FROM THE W TO NW AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTERLIES TO THE E OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLC TO S FL NEAR FT LAUDERDALE TO THE
GULF NEAR 25N82 TO 22N91W. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE FROM THE EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM
AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST E OF 91W...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN CENTRAL FL AND 88W.
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SE GULF WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE SW GULF THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT. THEREFORE...EXPECT AN OVERALL DECREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH
THROUGH SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST E OF CENTRAL AMERICA PROVIDES
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN. AN INVERTED UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OFF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. E TO NE TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW IS SUPPORTING PATCHES OF SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM 15N84W TO
11N62W. THIS INCLUDES THE GULF OF HONDURAS...JAMAICA...PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND...SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 MB LOW N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION SUPPORTS A FRONT THAT
EXTENDS SW AND INTO OUR AREA AS A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 32N64W
TO 28N75W TO THE FL COAST NEAR 26N80W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ALONG THE EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS COMBINING WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E
GULF...ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND INTO THE ATLC WITHIN 175 NM NW OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO WITHIN 50 NM S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A LARGE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC S OF
32N. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL E ATLC IS PRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF N MOROCCO. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING OFF THE COAST OF N AND CENTRAL FL INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 281746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W AND SW TO 01S22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 03S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
03S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1045 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER PENNSYLVANIA IS PROVIDING NE TO E SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KT ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
TX COAST NEAR 27N94W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W. WINDS
TO THE W OF THE TROUGH ARE FROM THE W TO NW AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTERLIES TO THE E OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLC TO S FL NEAR FT LAUDERDALE TO THE
GULF NEAR 25N82 TO 22N91W. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE FROM THE EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM
AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST E OF 91W...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN CENTRAL FL AND 88W.
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SE GULF WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE SW GULF THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT. THEREFORE...EXPECT AN OVERALL DECREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH
THROUGH SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST E OF CENTRAL AMERICA PROVIDES
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN. AN INVERTED UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OFF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. E TO NE TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW IS SUPPORTING PATCHES OF SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM 15N84W TO
11N62W. THIS INCLUDES THE GULF OF HONDURAS...JAMAICA...PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND...SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 MB LOW N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION SUPPORTS A FRONT THAT
EXTENDS SW AND INTO OUR AREA AS A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 32N64W
TO 28N75W TO THE FL COAST NEAR 26N80W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ALONG THE EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS COMBINING WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E
GULF...ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND INTO THE ATLC WITHIN 175 NM NW OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO WITHIN 50 NM S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A LARGE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC S OF
32N. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL E ATLC IS PRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF N MOROCCO. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING OFF THE COAST OF N AND CENTRAL FL INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 281746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W AND SW TO 01S22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 03S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
03S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1045 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER PENNSYLVANIA IS PROVIDING NE TO E SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KT ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
TX COAST NEAR 27N94W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W. WINDS
TO THE W OF THE TROUGH ARE FROM THE W TO NW AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTERLIES TO THE E OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLC TO S FL NEAR FT LAUDERDALE TO THE
GULF NEAR 25N82 TO 22N91W. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE FROM THE EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM
AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST E OF 91W...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN CENTRAL FL AND 88W.
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SE GULF WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE SW GULF THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT. THEREFORE...EXPECT AN OVERALL DECREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH
THROUGH SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST E OF CENTRAL AMERICA PROVIDES
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN. AN INVERTED UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OFF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. E TO NE TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW IS SUPPORTING PATCHES OF SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM 15N84W TO
11N62W. THIS INCLUDES THE GULF OF HONDURAS...JAMAICA...PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND...SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 MB LOW N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION SUPPORTS A FRONT THAT
EXTENDS SW AND INTO OUR AREA AS A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 32N64W
TO 28N75W TO THE FL COAST NEAR 26N80W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ALONG THE EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS COMBINING WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E
GULF...ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND INTO THE ATLC WITHIN 175 NM NW OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO WITHIN 50 NM S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A LARGE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC S OF
32N. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL E ATLC IS PRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF N MOROCCO. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING OFF THE COAST OF N AND CENTRAL FL INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 281746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W AND SW TO 01S22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 03S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
03S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1045 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER PENNSYLVANIA IS PROVIDING NE TO E SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KT ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
TX COAST NEAR 27N94W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W. WINDS
TO THE W OF THE TROUGH ARE FROM THE W TO NW AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTERLIES TO THE E OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLC TO S FL NEAR FT LAUDERDALE TO THE
GULF NEAR 25N82 TO 22N91W. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE FROM THE EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM
AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST E OF 91W...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN CENTRAL FL AND 88W.
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SE GULF WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE SW GULF THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT. THEREFORE...EXPECT AN OVERALL DECREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH
THROUGH SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST E OF CENTRAL AMERICA PROVIDES
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN. AN INVERTED UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OFF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. E TO NE TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW IS SUPPORTING PATCHES OF SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM 15N84W TO
11N62W. THIS INCLUDES THE GULF OF HONDURAS...JAMAICA...PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND...SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 MB LOW N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION SUPPORTS A FRONT THAT
EXTENDS SW AND INTO OUR AREA AS A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 32N64W
TO 28N75W TO THE FL COAST NEAR 26N80W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ALONG THE EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS COMBINING WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E
GULF...ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND INTO THE ATLC WITHIN 175 NM NW OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO WITHIN 50 NM S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A LARGE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC S OF
32N. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL E ATLC IS PRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF N MOROCCO. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING OFF THE COAST OF N AND CENTRAL FL INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 281746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W AND SW TO 01S22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 03S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
03S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1045 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER PENNSYLVANIA IS PROVIDING NE TO E SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KT ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
TX COAST NEAR 27N94W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W. WINDS
TO THE W OF THE TROUGH ARE FROM THE W TO NW AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTERLIES TO THE E OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLC TO S FL NEAR FT LAUDERDALE TO THE
GULF NEAR 25N82 TO 22N91W. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE FROM THE EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM
AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST E OF 91W...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN CENTRAL FL AND 88W.
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SE GULF WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE SW GULF THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT. THEREFORE...EXPECT AN OVERALL DECREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH
THROUGH SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST E OF CENTRAL AMERICA PROVIDES
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN. AN INVERTED UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OFF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. E TO NE TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW IS SUPPORTING PATCHES OF SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM 15N84W TO
11N62W. THIS INCLUDES THE GULF OF HONDURAS...JAMAICA...PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND...SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 MB LOW N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION SUPPORTS A FRONT THAT
EXTENDS SW AND INTO OUR AREA AS A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 32N64W
TO 28N75W TO THE FL COAST NEAR 26N80W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ALONG THE EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS COMBINING WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E
GULF...ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND INTO THE ATLC WITHIN 175 NM NW OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO WITHIN 50 NM S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A LARGE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC S OF
32N. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL E ATLC IS PRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF N MOROCCO. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING OFF THE COAST OF N AND CENTRAL FL INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281535
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SURFACE TROUGH FROM 08N82W TO 04N91W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N91W
TO 04N120W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO
09N BETWEEN 128W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 135W AND 140W N OF 20N.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE DIFFUSE W OF 100W THE NEXT 2 DAYS WITH ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS S OF 30N LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXTEND FROM
30N118W TO 25N132W BY SUN MORNING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BATCH OF
20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH 8-11 FT SEAS...WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN WATERS BETWEEN 125-135W TONIGHT...AND SHIFT SW TO ALONG
22N BY SUN NIGHT. OTHERWISE MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL DOMINATE
THE REGION N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 110W THROUGH MON.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0400 UTC SHOWS
MAX N WINDS OF 30 KT...AND SURFACE OBS FROM SALINA CRUZ INDICATE
WINDS HAVE DINISHED SINCE THEN AFTER PEAKING AT 25-30 KT AROUND
1800 UTC YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH...AND EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE TONIGHT TO MAX AT 30 KT WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 11 FT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE AT 20-25 KT THROUGH TUE MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD...
ANOTHER GALE WIND EVENT POSSIBLE FRI MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-25 KT LATER TODAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES WILL RESUME
TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING SUN AND MON NIGHTS.

GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT MON NIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281535
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SURFACE TROUGH FROM 08N82W TO 04N91W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N91W
TO 04N120W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO
09N BETWEEN 128W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 135W AND 140W N OF 20N.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE DIFFUSE W OF 100W THE NEXT 2 DAYS WITH ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS S OF 30N LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXTEND FROM
30N118W TO 25N132W BY SUN MORNING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BATCH OF
20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH 8-11 FT SEAS...WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN WATERS BETWEEN 125-135W TONIGHT...AND SHIFT SW TO ALONG
22N BY SUN NIGHT. OTHERWISE MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL DOMINATE
THE REGION N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 110W THROUGH MON.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0400 UTC SHOWS
MAX N WINDS OF 30 KT...AND SURFACE OBS FROM SALINA CRUZ INDICATE
WINDS HAVE DINISHED SINCE THEN AFTER PEAKING AT 25-30 KT AROUND
1800 UTC YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH...AND EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE TONIGHT TO MAX AT 30 KT WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 11 FT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE AT 20-25 KT THROUGH TUE MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD...
ANOTHER GALE WIND EVENT POSSIBLE FRI MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-25 KT LATER TODAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES WILL RESUME
TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING SUN AND MON NIGHTS.

GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT MON NIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281535
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SURFACE TROUGH FROM 08N82W TO 04N91W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N91W
TO 04N120W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO
09N BETWEEN 128W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 135W AND 140W N OF 20N.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE DIFFUSE W OF 100W THE NEXT 2 DAYS WITH ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS S OF 30N LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXTEND FROM
30N118W TO 25N132W BY SUN MORNING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BATCH OF
20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH 8-11 FT SEAS...WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN WATERS BETWEEN 125-135W TONIGHT...AND SHIFT SW TO ALONG
22N BY SUN NIGHT. OTHERWISE MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL DOMINATE
THE REGION N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 110W THROUGH MON.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0400 UTC SHOWS
MAX N WINDS OF 30 KT...AND SURFACE OBS FROM SALINA CRUZ INDICATE
WINDS HAVE DINISHED SINCE THEN AFTER PEAKING AT 25-30 KT AROUND
1800 UTC YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH...AND EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE TONIGHT TO MAX AT 30 KT WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 11 FT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE AT 20-25 KT THROUGH TUE MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD...
ANOTHER GALE WIND EVENT POSSIBLE FRI MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-25 KT LATER TODAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES WILL RESUME
TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING SUN AND MON NIGHTS.

GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT MON NIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281535
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SURFACE TROUGH FROM 08N82W TO 04N91W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N91W
TO 04N120W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO
09N BETWEEN 128W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 135W AND 140W N OF 20N.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE DIFFUSE W OF 100W THE NEXT 2 DAYS WITH ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS S OF 30N LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXTEND FROM
30N118W TO 25N132W BY SUN MORNING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BATCH OF
20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH 8-11 FT SEAS...WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN WATERS BETWEEN 125-135W TONIGHT...AND SHIFT SW TO ALONG
22N BY SUN NIGHT. OTHERWISE MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL DOMINATE
THE REGION N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 110W THROUGH MON.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0400 UTC SHOWS
MAX N WINDS OF 30 KT...AND SURFACE OBS FROM SALINA CRUZ INDICATE
WINDS HAVE DINISHED SINCE THEN AFTER PEAKING AT 25-30 KT AROUND
1800 UTC YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH...AND EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE TONIGHT TO MAX AT 30 KT WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 11 FT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE AT 20-25 KT THROUGH TUE MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD...
ANOTHER GALE WIND EVENT POSSIBLE FRI MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-25 KT LATER TODAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES WILL RESUME
TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING SUN AND MON NIGHTS.

GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT MON NIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281535
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SURFACE TROUGH FROM 08N82W TO 04N91W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N91W
TO 04N120W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO
09N BETWEEN 128W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 135W AND 140W N OF 20N.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE DIFFUSE W OF 100W THE NEXT 2 DAYS WITH ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS S OF 30N LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXTEND FROM
30N118W TO 25N132W BY SUN MORNING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BATCH OF
20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH 8-11 FT SEAS...WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN WATERS BETWEEN 125-135W TONIGHT...AND SHIFT SW TO ALONG
22N BY SUN NIGHT. OTHERWISE MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL DOMINATE
THE REGION N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 110W THROUGH MON.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0400 UTC SHOWS
MAX N WINDS OF 30 KT...AND SURFACE OBS FROM SALINA CRUZ INDICATE
WINDS HAVE DINISHED SINCE THEN AFTER PEAKING AT 25-30 KT AROUND
1800 UTC YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH...AND EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE TONIGHT TO MAX AT 30 KT WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 11 FT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE AT 20-25 KT THROUGH TUE MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD...
ANOTHER GALE WIND EVENT POSSIBLE FRI MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-25 KT LATER TODAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES WILL RESUME
TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING SUN AND MON NIGHTS.

GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT MON NIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281535
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SURFACE TROUGH FROM 08N82W TO 04N91W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N91W
TO 04N120W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO
09N BETWEEN 128W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 135W AND 140W N OF 20N.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE DIFFUSE W OF 100W THE NEXT 2 DAYS WITH ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS S OF 30N LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXTEND FROM
30N118W TO 25N132W BY SUN MORNING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BATCH OF
20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH 8-11 FT SEAS...WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN WATERS BETWEEN 125-135W TONIGHT...AND SHIFT SW TO ALONG
22N BY SUN NIGHT. OTHERWISE MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL DOMINATE
THE REGION N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 110W THROUGH MON.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0400 UTC SHOWS
MAX N WINDS OF 30 KT...AND SURFACE OBS FROM SALINA CRUZ INDICATE
WINDS HAVE DINISHED SINCE THEN AFTER PEAKING AT 25-30 KT AROUND
1800 UTC YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH...AND EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE TONIGHT TO MAX AT 30 KT WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 11 FT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE AT 20-25 KT THROUGH TUE MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD...
ANOTHER GALE WIND EVENT POSSIBLE FRI MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-25 KT LATER TODAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES WILL RESUME
TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING SUN AND MON NIGHTS.

GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT MON NIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM 10.5N
TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W SW TO 02S20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 03S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
02S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND FROM 06S TO 02N W OF
20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY TWO 1041 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS S OF THE GREAT LAKES COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
AND EXTENDS S ACROSS THE GULF. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KT...HIGHEST ON
THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 25N WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
TIGHTER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OVER THE W ATLC WATERS BEING
ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC...ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...DISSIPATING OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO W
OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N91W. OVER THE FAR
WESTERN GULF...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 27N97W TO 22N97W TO 19N94W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 25N
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES DEPICT
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF FOG OVER THE EASTERN GULF E OF 85W AND
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA S OF 28N...THESE BEING
CONFIRMED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WITH LITTLE SUPPORT
ALOFT...THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS
MORNING LEAVING A SURFACE RIDGE AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE
NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD
AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA N OF 18N SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR DOMINATES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TRADES
OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
BASIN...INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL
WATERS. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATE. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. THIS
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB LOW
N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION IS ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT
FROM 30N69W SW TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W TO W OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE AZORES HIGH ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH
NEAR 35N26W COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND SUPPORTS FAIR
WEATHER. WITH LITTLE TO NONE SUPPORT ALOFT...THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SW N ATLC SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...LEAVING SURFACE RIDGING AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM 10.5N
TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W SW TO 02S20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 03S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
02S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND FROM 06S TO 02N W OF
20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY TWO 1041 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS S OF THE GREAT LAKES COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
AND EXTENDS S ACROSS THE GULF. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KT...HIGHEST ON
THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 25N WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
TIGHTER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OVER THE W ATLC WATERS BEING
ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC...ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...DISSIPATING OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO W
OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N91W. OVER THE FAR
WESTERN GULF...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 27N97W TO 22N97W TO 19N94W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 25N
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES DEPICT
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF FOG OVER THE EASTERN GULF E OF 85W AND
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA S OF 28N...THESE BEING
CONFIRMED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WITH LITTLE SUPPORT
ALOFT...THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS
MORNING LEAVING A SURFACE RIDGE AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE
NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD
AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA N OF 18N SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR DOMINATES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TRADES
OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
BASIN...INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL
WATERS. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATE. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. THIS
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB LOW
N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION IS ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT
FROM 30N69W SW TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W TO W OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE AZORES HIGH ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH
NEAR 35N26W COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND SUPPORTS FAIR
WEATHER. WITH LITTLE TO NONE SUPPORT ALOFT...THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SW N ATLC SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...LEAVING SURFACE RIDGING AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 281158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM 10.5N
TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W SW TO 02S20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 03S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
02S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND FROM 06S TO 02N W OF
20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY TWO 1041 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS S OF THE GREAT LAKES COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
AND EXTENDS S ACROSS THE GULF. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KT...HIGHEST ON
THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 25N WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
TIGHTER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OVER THE W ATLC WATERS BEING
ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC...ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...DISSIPATING OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO W
OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N91W. OVER THE FAR
WESTERN GULF...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 27N97W TO 22N97W TO 19N94W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 25N
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES DEPICT
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF FOG OVER THE EASTERN GULF E OF 85W AND
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA S OF 28N...THESE BEING
CONFIRMED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WITH LITTLE SUPPORT
ALOFT...THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS
MORNING LEAVING A SURFACE RIDGE AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE
NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD
AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA N OF 18N SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR DOMINATES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TRADES
OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
BASIN...INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL
WATERS. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATE. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. THIS
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB LOW
N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION IS ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT
FROM 30N69W SW TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W TO W OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE AZORES HIGH ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH
NEAR 35N26W COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND SUPPORTS FAIR
WEATHER. WITH LITTLE TO NONE SUPPORT ALOFT...THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SW N ATLC SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...LEAVING SURFACE RIDGING AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 281158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM 10.5N
TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W SW TO 02S20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 03S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
02S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND FROM 06S TO 02N W OF
20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY TWO 1041 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS S OF THE GREAT LAKES COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
AND EXTENDS S ACROSS THE GULF. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KT...HIGHEST ON
THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 25N WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
TIGHTER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OVER THE W ATLC WATERS BEING
ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC...ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...DISSIPATING OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO W
OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N91W. OVER THE FAR
WESTERN GULF...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 27N97W TO 22N97W TO 19N94W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 25N
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES DEPICT
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF FOG OVER THE EASTERN GULF E OF 85W AND
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA S OF 28N...THESE BEING
CONFIRMED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WITH LITTLE SUPPORT
ALOFT...THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS
MORNING LEAVING A SURFACE RIDGE AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE
NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD
AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA N OF 18N SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR DOMINATES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TRADES
OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
BASIN...INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL
WATERS. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATE. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. THIS
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB LOW
N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION IS ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT
FROM 30N69W SW TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W TO W OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE AZORES HIGH ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH
NEAR 35N26W COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND SUPPORTS FAIR
WEATHER. WITH LITTLE TO NONE SUPPORT ALOFT...THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SW N ATLC SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...LEAVING SURFACE RIDGING AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 281158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM 10.5N
TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W SW TO 02S20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 03S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
02S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND FROM 06S TO 02N W OF
20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY TWO 1041 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS S OF THE GREAT LAKES COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
AND EXTENDS S ACROSS THE GULF. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KT...HIGHEST ON
THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 25N WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
TIGHTER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OVER THE W ATLC WATERS BEING
ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC...ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...DISSIPATING OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO W
OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N91W. OVER THE FAR
WESTERN GULF...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 27N97W TO 22N97W TO 19N94W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 25N
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES DEPICT
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF FOG OVER THE EASTERN GULF E OF 85W AND
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA S OF 28N...THESE BEING
CONFIRMED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WITH LITTLE SUPPORT
ALOFT...THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS
MORNING LEAVING A SURFACE RIDGE AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE
NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD
AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA N OF 18N SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR DOMINATES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TRADES
OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
BASIN...INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL
WATERS. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATE. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. THIS
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB LOW
N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION IS ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT
FROM 30N69W SW TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W TO W OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE AZORES HIGH ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH
NEAR 35N26W COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND SUPPORTS FAIR
WEATHER. WITH LITTLE TO NONE SUPPORT ALOFT...THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SW N ATLC SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...LEAVING SURFACE RIDGING AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 281158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM 10.5N
TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W SW TO 02S20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 03S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
02S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND FROM 06S TO 02N W OF
20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY TWO 1041 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS S OF THE GREAT LAKES COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
AND EXTENDS S ACROSS THE GULF. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KT...HIGHEST ON
THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 25N WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
TIGHTER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OVER THE W ATLC WATERS BEING
ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC...ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...DISSIPATING OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO W
OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N91W. OVER THE FAR
WESTERN GULF...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 27N97W TO 22N97W TO 19N94W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 25N
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES DEPICT
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF FOG OVER THE EASTERN GULF E OF 85W AND
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA S OF 28N...THESE BEING
CONFIRMED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WITH LITTLE SUPPORT
ALOFT...THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS
MORNING LEAVING A SURFACE RIDGE AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE
NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD
AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA N OF 18N SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR DOMINATES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TRADES
OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
BASIN...INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL
WATERS. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATE. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. THIS
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB LOW
N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION IS ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT
FROM 30N69W SW TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W TO W OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE AZORES HIGH ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH
NEAR 35N26W COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND SUPPORTS FAIR
WEATHER. WITH LITTLE TO NONE SUPPORT ALOFT...THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SW N ATLC SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...LEAVING SURFACE RIDGING AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281001
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS FOR
28/0308 UTC SHOWS WIND VECTORS AT 30 KNOTS FROM 15N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ONLY FOR
THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AT
SPEEDS THAT WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 9 TO 13 FEET DURING THE
TIME OF THE FASTEST WIND SPEEDS OF THIS GALE-WIND EVENT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 05N75W 07N81W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 05N TO 06N BETWEEN 77W AND
78W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 05N84W TO
03N90W.

A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 05N85W 03N91W 02N94W 03N100W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 02N TO 03N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS
OF 04N90W.

A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 122W/123W FROM 04N TO 11N.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 119W AND 123W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 05N85W 03N91W 02N94W 03N100W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 03N100W TO 05N109W TO 05N115W TO 06N119W TO
05N128W TO 07N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 03N TO 04N BETWEEN 118W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT DIRECTLY IS MOVING AROUND THE OREGON
CYCLONIC CENTER IS REACHING 25N122W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ALONG 24N138W...TO 28N142W...BEYOND 34N144W. SOME OF THE WIND
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE IS MERGING WITH THE WIND
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE OREGON CYCLONIC CENTER. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 120W FROM 20N BEYOND 32N. A
SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 23N130W
14N135W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N140W TO 26N134W TO 21N125W. A
BROAD MIX OF SWELLS HAS RESULTED IN COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS OF 7 TO
9 FEET.  THE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TO LESS THAN 8 FEET
FEET LATER TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS THAT ARE TO THE NE OF THE
RIDGE ARE HAVE SUBSIDED TO 10-15 KT...BUT THE ASSOCIATED NW
SWELLS ARE REACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 5-8 FT SEAS. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT ON SAT. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A BATCH 20-25
KT NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH 8-11 FT SEAS...WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN WATERS BETWEEN 125-135W ON SAT NIGHT...AND SHIFT SW TO
ALONG 22N ON SUN NIGHT.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OF 10-15
KNOTS ARE BEING OBSERVED CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA . THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
LATER TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN RELAX TO
10-15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON
MON NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ON TUE WITH ONLY A 5-10 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED
TO RESUME TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING ON SUN
AND MON NIGHTS.

.THE GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT TILL MON NIGHT WHEN GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO
20-25 KT.

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281001
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS FOR
28/0308 UTC SHOWS WIND VECTORS AT 30 KNOTS FROM 15N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ONLY FOR
THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AT
SPEEDS THAT WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 9 TO 13 FEET DURING THE
TIME OF THE FASTEST WIND SPEEDS OF THIS GALE-WIND EVENT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 05N75W 07N81W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 05N TO 06N BETWEEN 77W AND
78W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 05N84W TO
03N90W.

A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 05N85W 03N91W 02N94W 03N100W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 02N TO 03N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS
OF 04N90W.

A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 122W/123W FROM 04N TO 11N.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 119W AND 123W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 05N85W 03N91W 02N94W 03N100W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 03N100W TO 05N109W TO 05N115W TO 06N119W TO
05N128W TO 07N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 03N TO 04N BETWEEN 118W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT DIRECTLY IS MOVING AROUND THE OREGON
CYCLONIC CENTER IS REACHING 25N122W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ALONG 24N138W...TO 28N142W...BEYOND 34N144W. SOME OF THE WIND
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE IS MERGING WITH THE WIND
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE OREGON CYCLONIC CENTER. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 120W FROM 20N BEYOND 32N. A
SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 23N130W
14N135W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N140W TO 26N134W TO 21N125W. A
BROAD MIX OF SWELLS HAS RESULTED IN COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS OF 7 TO
9 FEET.  THE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TO LESS THAN 8 FEET
FEET LATER TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS THAT ARE TO THE NE OF THE
RIDGE ARE HAVE SUBSIDED TO 10-15 KT...BUT THE ASSOCIATED NW
SWELLS ARE REACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 5-8 FT SEAS. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT ON SAT. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A BATCH 20-25
KT NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH 8-11 FT SEAS...WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN WATERS BETWEEN 125-135W ON SAT NIGHT...AND SHIFT SW TO
ALONG 22N ON SUN NIGHT.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OF 10-15
KNOTS ARE BEING OBSERVED CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA . THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
LATER TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN RELAX TO
10-15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON
MON NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ON TUE WITH ONLY A 5-10 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED
TO RESUME TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING ON SUN
AND MON NIGHTS.

.THE GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT TILL MON NIGHT WHEN GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO
20-25 KT.

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281001
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS FOR
28/0308 UTC SHOWS WIND VECTORS AT 30 KNOTS FROM 15N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ONLY FOR
THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AT
SPEEDS THAT WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 9 TO 13 FEET DURING THE
TIME OF THE FASTEST WIND SPEEDS OF THIS GALE-WIND EVENT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 05N75W 07N81W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 05N TO 06N BETWEEN 77W AND
78W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 05N84W TO
03N90W.

A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 05N85W 03N91W 02N94W 03N100W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 02N TO 03N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS
OF 04N90W.

A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 122W/123W FROM 04N TO 11N.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 119W AND 123W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 05N85W 03N91W 02N94W 03N100W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 03N100W TO 05N109W TO 05N115W TO 06N119W TO
05N128W TO 07N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 03N TO 04N BETWEEN 118W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT DIRECTLY IS MOVING AROUND THE OREGON
CYCLONIC CENTER IS REACHING 25N122W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ALONG 24N138W...TO 28N142W...BEYOND 34N144W. SOME OF THE WIND
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE IS MERGING WITH THE WIND
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE OREGON CYCLONIC CENTER. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 120W FROM 20N BEYOND 32N. A
SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 23N130W
14N135W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N140W TO 26N134W TO 21N125W. A
BROAD MIX OF SWELLS HAS RESULTED IN COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS OF 7 TO
9 FEET.  THE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TO LESS THAN 8 FEET
FEET LATER TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS THAT ARE TO THE NE OF THE
RIDGE ARE HAVE SUBSIDED TO 10-15 KT...BUT THE ASSOCIATED NW
SWELLS ARE REACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 5-8 FT SEAS. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT ON SAT. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A BATCH 20-25
KT NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH 8-11 FT SEAS...WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN WATERS BETWEEN 125-135W ON SAT NIGHT...AND SHIFT SW TO
ALONG 22N ON SUN NIGHT.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OF 10-15
KNOTS ARE BEING OBSERVED CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA . THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
LATER TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN RELAX TO
10-15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON
MON NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ON TUE WITH ONLY A 5-10 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED
TO RESUME TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING ON SUN
AND MON NIGHTS.

.THE GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT TILL MON NIGHT WHEN GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO
20-25 KT.

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281001
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS FOR
28/0308 UTC SHOWS WIND VECTORS AT 30 KNOTS FROM 15N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ONLY FOR
THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AT
SPEEDS THAT WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 9 TO 13 FEET DURING THE
TIME OF THE FASTEST WIND SPEEDS OF THIS GALE-WIND EVENT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 05N75W 07N81W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 05N TO 06N BETWEEN 77W AND
78W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 05N84W TO
03N90W.

A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 05N85W 03N91W 02N94W 03N100W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 02N TO 03N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS
OF 04N90W.

A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 122W/123W FROM 04N TO 11N.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 119W AND 123W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 05N85W 03N91W 02N94W 03N100W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 03N100W TO 05N109W TO 05N115W TO 06N119W TO
05N128W TO 07N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 03N TO 04N BETWEEN 118W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT DIRECTLY IS MOVING AROUND THE OREGON
CYCLONIC CENTER IS REACHING 25N122W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ALONG 24N138W...TO 28N142W...BEYOND 34N144W. SOME OF THE WIND
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE IS MERGING WITH THE WIND
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE OREGON CYCLONIC CENTER. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 120W FROM 20N BEYOND 32N. A
SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 23N130W
14N135W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N140W TO 26N134W TO 21N125W. A
BROAD MIX OF SWELLS HAS RESULTED IN COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS OF 7 TO
9 FEET.  THE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TO LESS THAN 8 FEET
FEET LATER TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS THAT ARE TO THE NE OF THE
RIDGE ARE HAVE SUBSIDED TO 10-15 KT...BUT THE ASSOCIATED NW
SWELLS ARE REACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 5-8 FT SEAS. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT ON SAT. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A BATCH 20-25
KT NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH 8-11 FT SEAS...WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN WATERS BETWEEN 125-135W ON SAT NIGHT...AND SHIFT SW TO
ALONG 22N ON SUN NIGHT.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OF 10-15
KNOTS ARE BEING OBSERVED CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA . THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
LATER TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN RELAX TO
10-15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON
MON NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ON TUE WITH ONLY A 5-10 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED
TO RESUME TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING ON SUN
AND MON NIGHTS.

.THE GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT TILL MON NIGHT WHEN GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO
20-25 KT.

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N
TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W STARTING AT 0600 UTC SATURDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RESUME EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N10W TO 01S18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
02S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
FROM 01S TO 04N E OF 20W AND FROM 06S TO 02N W OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1041 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. AND EXTENDS S ACROSS THE GULF. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KT...HIGHEST ON THE NORTHERN
GULF WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTER. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS OVER THE W ATLC WATERS BEING ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC...ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 25N
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. WITH LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT...THE
STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE SATURDAY MORNING
LEAVING A SURFACE RIDGE AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLAND...THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 17N SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS
MIDDLE TO UPPER DRY AIR DOMINATES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
BASIN...INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT
DOMINATE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. THIS
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB LOW
N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION IS ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT
FROM 30N69W SW TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N81W TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE AZORES HIGH ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH
NEAR 36N25W COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND SUPPORTS FAIR
WEATHER. WITH LITTLE TO NONE SUPPORT ALOFT...THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SW N ATLC SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...LEAVING SURFACE RIDGING AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N
TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W STARTING AT 0600 UTC SATURDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RESUME EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N10W TO 01S18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
02S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
FROM 01S TO 04N E OF 20W AND FROM 06S TO 02N W OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1041 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. AND EXTENDS S ACROSS THE GULF. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KT...HIGHEST ON THE NORTHERN
GULF WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTER. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS OVER THE W ATLC WATERS BEING ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC...ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 25N
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. WITH LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT...THE
STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE SATURDAY MORNING
LEAVING A SURFACE RIDGE AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLAND...THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 17N SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS
MIDDLE TO UPPER DRY AIR DOMINATES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
BASIN...INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT
DOMINATE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. THIS
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB LOW
N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION IS ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT
FROM 30N69W SW TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N81W TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE AZORES HIGH ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH
NEAR 36N25W COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND SUPPORTS FAIR
WEATHER. WITH LITTLE TO NONE SUPPORT ALOFT...THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SW N ATLC SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...LEAVING SURFACE RIDGING AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 280605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N
TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W STARTING AT 0600 UTC SATURDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RESUME EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N10W TO 01S18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
02S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
FROM 01S TO 04N E OF 20W AND FROM 06S TO 02N W OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1041 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. AND EXTENDS S ACROSS THE GULF. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KT...HIGHEST ON THE NORTHERN
GULF WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTER. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS OVER THE W ATLC WATERS BEING ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC...ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 25N
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. WITH LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT...THE
STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE SATURDAY MORNING
LEAVING A SURFACE RIDGE AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLAND...THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 17N SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS
MIDDLE TO UPPER DRY AIR DOMINATES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
BASIN...INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT
DOMINATE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. THIS
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB LOW
N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION IS ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT
FROM 30N69W SW TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N81W TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE AZORES HIGH ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH
NEAR 36N25W COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND SUPPORTS FAIR
WEATHER. WITH LITTLE TO NONE SUPPORT ALOFT...THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SW N ATLC SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...LEAVING SURFACE RIDGING AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280320
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 25-35 KT MINIMAL GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TILL LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO A MAX OF 13 FT NEAR 14.5N95W. THE NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY SAT. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SECONDARY SURGE...AND NOW EXPECT
THE NORTHERLY SURGE TO MAX AT 30 KT ON SAT NIGHT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO ABOUT 11 FT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT 20-25 KT THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 04N77W TO 05N99W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE
ITCZ FORMS AND THEN CONTINUES NW TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT
07N118W...THEN CONTINUES W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WITHIN 75 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N84W TO 03N90W. SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS NOTED N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
11N121W TO 08N140W.

A TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 07N118W TO 12N117W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 11N WITHIN 90 NM
E AND WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH HAS ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING SW
FROM OVER ARIZONA THROUGH 21N120W TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP
TROPICS AT 10N135W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS WSW FROM THE SW
CARIBBEAN TO AN ILL-DEFINED CREST NEAR 07N107W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE ITCZ RELATED
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE
IS ADVECTED NE CONCENTRATING INTO INTO A 480 NM WIDE PLUME THAT
CONTINUES ENE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
ACROSS MOST OF FLORIDA. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE SMALL CLUSTERS
OF CONVECTION DESCRIBED ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ITCZ
QUICKLY EVAPORATES IN THE DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATING THE TROPICS
TO THE E OF 106W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N137W TO 13N98W. A BROAD MIX OF
SWELLS HAS RESULTED COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT ACROSS THE PACIFIC
WATERS W OF 133W. THE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT
LATER TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE NE OF THE RIDGE ARE HAVE
SUBSIDED TO 10-15 KT...BUT THE ASSOCIATED NW SWELLS ARE REACHING
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF
5-8 FT SEAS. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT ON
SAT. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A BATCH 20-25 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH 8-11 FT SEAS...WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS
BETWEEN 125-135W ON SAT NIGHT...AND SHIFT SW TO ALONG 22N ON SUN
NIGHT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...S-SW 10-15 KT WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
LATER TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN RELAX TO
10-15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN GULF
ON MON NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ON TUE WITH ONLY A 5-10 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO
RESUME TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING ON SUN AND
MON NIGHTS.

.GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT TILL
MON NIGHT WHEN GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280320
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 25-35 KT MINIMAL GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TILL LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO A MAX OF 13 FT NEAR 14.5N95W. THE NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY SAT. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SECONDARY SURGE...AND NOW EXPECT
THE NORTHERLY SURGE TO MAX AT 30 KT ON SAT NIGHT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO ABOUT 11 FT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT 20-25 KT THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 04N77W TO 05N99W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE
ITCZ FORMS AND THEN CONTINUES NW TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT
07N118W...THEN CONTINUES W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WITHIN 75 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N84W TO 03N90W. SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS NOTED N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
11N121W TO 08N140W.

A TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 07N118W TO 12N117W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 11N WITHIN 90 NM
E AND WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH HAS ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING SW
FROM OVER ARIZONA THROUGH 21N120W TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP
TROPICS AT 10N135W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS WSW FROM THE SW
CARIBBEAN TO AN ILL-DEFINED CREST NEAR 07N107W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE ITCZ RELATED
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE
IS ADVECTED NE CONCENTRATING INTO INTO A 480 NM WIDE PLUME THAT
CONTINUES ENE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
ACROSS MOST OF FLORIDA. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE SMALL CLUSTERS
OF CONVECTION DESCRIBED ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ITCZ
QUICKLY EVAPORATES IN THE DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATING THE TROPICS
TO THE E OF 106W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N137W TO 13N98W. A BROAD MIX OF
SWELLS HAS RESULTED COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT ACROSS THE PACIFIC
WATERS W OF 133W. THE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT
LATER TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE NE OF THE RIDGE ARE HAVE
SUBSIDED TO 10-15 KT...BUT THE ASSOCIATED NW SWELLS ARE REACHING
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF
5-8 FT SEAS. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT ON
SAT. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A BATCH 20-25 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH 8-11 FT SEAS...WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS
BETWEEN 125-135W ON SAT NIGHT...AND SHIFT SW TO ALONG 22N ON SUN
NIGHT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...S-SW 10-15 KT WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
LATER TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN RELAX TO
10-15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN GULF
ON MON NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ON TUE WITH ONLY A 5-10 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO
RESUME TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING ON SUN AND
MON NIGHTS.

.GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT TILL
MON NIGHT WHEN GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT.

$$
NELSON



000
AXNT20 KNHC 272319
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE E ATLANTIC...

GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO DUE TO A
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE
THE METEO-FRANCE FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 00N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4S BETWEEN 20W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1041 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE UPPER MID WEST EXTENDS S ACROSS THE GULF. A WEAK 1022
MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N96W. THIS LOW IS EXTENDING
ITS COLD FRONT TO THE W ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS THEN REACHING
NE MEXICO...WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS LOW OR ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TO
THE SE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO THE E ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 50 NM OF EACH SIDE OF
THIS FRONT. A GENTLE TO MODERATE NE FLOW IS OBSERVED IN
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE BASIN.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE WEAK LOW OVER THE W GULF
TO DISSIPATE. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SE GULF IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN BUT ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF IT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NW CUBA
THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS
BOUNDARY IS ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AFFECTING THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WATERS. A MOIST
AIRMASS PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN...WHICH
TRANSPORTED BY THE STRONG TRADE WINDS IS GENERATING ISOLATED
CONVECTION THAT CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE
TRADES ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA MAINLY E OF 80W WHILE
SLIGHT TO GENTLE SE FLOW PREVAILS W OF 80W. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO WEAKEN ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF IT.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT WILL CONTINUE MOVING
OVER THE ISLAND WITH THE TRADES. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 31N69W TO 28N74W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND
EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF THE
BOUNDARIES MAINLY N OF 28N. FARTHER EAST...SURFACE RIDGING
ANCHORED BY A LARGE 1038 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED JUST S OF THE
AZORES SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC S OF 32N. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS JUST
OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BECOME STATIONARY THEN TRANSITION TO SHEAR
LINE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND THEN THE SHEAR LINE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 272319
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE E ATLANTIC...

GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO DUE TO A
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE
THE METEO-FRANCE FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 00N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4S BETWEEN 20W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1041 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE UPPER MID WEST EXTENDS S ACROSS THE GULF. A WEAK 1022
MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N96W. THIS LOW IS EXTENDING
ITS COLD FRONT TO THE W ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS THEN REACHING
NE MEXICO...WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS LOW OR ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TO
THE SE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO THE E ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 50 NM OF EACH SIDE OF
THIS FRONT. A GENTLE TO MODERATE NE FLOW IS OBSERVED IN
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE BASIN.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE WEAK LOW OVER THE W GULF
TO DISSIPATE. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SE GULF IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN BUT ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF IT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NW CUBA
THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS
BOUNDARY IS ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AFFECTING THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WATERS. A MOIST
AIRMASS PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN...WHICH
TRANSPORTED BY THE STRONG TRADE WINDS IS GENERATING ISOLATED
CONVECTION THAT CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE
TRADES ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA MAINLY E OF 80W WHILE
SLIGHT TO GENTLE SE FLOW PREVAILS W OF 80W. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO WEAKEN ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF IT.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT WILL CONTINUE MOVING
OVER THE ISLAND WITH THE TRADES. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 31N69W TO 28N74W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND
EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF THE
BOUNDARIES MAINLY N OF 28N. FARTHER EAST...SURFACE RIDGING
ANCHORED BY A LARGE 1038 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED JUST S OF THE
AZORES SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC S OF 32N. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS JUST
OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BECOME STATIONARY THEN TRANSITION TO SHEAR
LINE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND THEN THE SHEAR LINE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272158
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-30 KT WINDS OBSERVED ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE THIS
EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
A MAX OF 12 FT NEAR 14.5N95W. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY SAT...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
MINIMAL GALE FORCE AGAIN LATE SAT AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE SAT
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE BY EARLY SUN.
NORTHERLY SURGES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO 20-25 KT
THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 04N77W TO 04N96W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE
ITCZ FORMS AND THEN CONTINUES NW TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT
08N117W THEN CONTINUES W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM OF 06N83W...WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N78W TO 03N90W AND WITHIN 180 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N117W TO 10N126W TO 08N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM OVER ARIZONA TO A
BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 09N135W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W
FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS THE TROPICS TO A ILL-
DEFINED CREST NEAR 05N105W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH
AND THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE ITCZ RELATED CONVECTION
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
NE CONCENTRATING INTO INTO A 500 NM WIDE PLUME THAT CONTINUES
ENE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS MOST
OF FLORIDA. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE SMALL CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION DESCRIBED ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ITCZ
QUICKLY EVAPORATES IN THE DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATING THE TROPICS
TO THE E OF 106W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N137W TO 20N110W. A BROAD MIX OF
SWELLS HAS RESULTED COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT ACROSS THE PACIFIC
WATERS W OF 133W. THE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT
TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE NE OF THE RIDGE ARE CURRENTLY
SUBSIDING TO NW AT 10-15 KT...BUT THE ASSOCIATED NW SWELLS WILL
REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN THE
FORM OF 5-8 FT SEAS. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 4-6
FT ON SAT. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A BATCH 20-25 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH 8-11 FT SEAS...WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS
BETWEEN 125-135W ON SAT NIGHT...AND SHIFT SW TO ALONG 22N ON SUN
NIGHT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...S-SW 10-15 KT WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN RELAX TO 10-15
KT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON MON
NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ON TUE WITH ONLY A 5-10 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO
RESUME TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING ON SUN AND
MON NIGHTS.

.GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT TILL
MON NIGHT WHEN GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT.


$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272158
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-30 KT WINDS OBSERVED ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE THIS
EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
A MAX OF 12 FT NEAR 14.5N95W. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY SAT...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
MINIMAL GALE FORCE AGAIN LATE SAT AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE SAT
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE BY EARLY SUN.
NORTHERLY SURGES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO 20-25 KT
THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 04N77W TO 04N96W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE
ITCZ FORMS AND THEN CONTINUES NW TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT
08N117W THEN CONTINUES W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM OF 06N83W...WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N78W TO 03N90W AND WITHIN 180 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N117W TO 10N126W TO 08N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM OVER ARIZONA TO A
BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 09N135W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W
FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS THE TROPICS TO A ILL-
DEFINED CREST NEAR 05N105W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH
AND THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE ITCZ RELATED CONVECTION
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
NE CONCENTRATING INTO INTO A 500 NM WIDE PLUME THAT CONTINUES
ENE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS MOST
OF FLORIDA. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE SMALL CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION DESCRIBED ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ITCZ
QUICKLY EVAPORATES IN THE DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATING THE TROPICS
TO THE E OF 106W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N137W TO 20N110W. A BROAD MIX OF
SWELLS HAS RESULTED COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT ACROSS THE PACIFIC
WATERS W OF 133W. THE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT
TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE NE OF THE RIDGE ARE CURRENTLY
SUBSIDING TO NW AT 10-15 KT...BUT THE ASSOCIATED NW SWELLS WILL
REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN THE
FORM OF 5-8 FT SEAS. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 4-6
FT ON SAT. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A BATCH 20-25 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH 8-11 FT SEAS...WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS
BETWEEN 125-135W ON SAT NIGHT...AND SHIFT SW TO ALONG 22N ON SUN
NIGHT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...S-SW 10-15 KT WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN RELAX TO 10-15
KT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON MON
NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ON TUE WITH ONLY A 5-10 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO
RESUME TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING ON SUN AND
MON NIGHTS.

.GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT TILL
MON NIGHT WHEN GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT.


$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272158
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-30 KT WINDS OBSERVED ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE THIS
EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
A MAX OF 12 FT NEAR 14.5N95W. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY SAT...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
MINIMAL GALE FORCE AGAIN LATE SAT AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE SAT
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE BY EARLY SUN.
NORTHERLY SURGES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO 20-25 KT
THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 04N77W TO 04N96W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE
ITCZ FORMS AND THEN CONTINUES NW TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT
08N117W THEN CONTINUES W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM OF 06N83W...WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N78W TO 03N90W AND WITHIN 180 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N117W TO 10N126W TO 08N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM OVER ARIZONA TO A
BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 09N135W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W
FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS THE TROPICS TO A ILL-
DEFINED CREST NEAR 05N105W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH
AND THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE ITCZ RELATED CONVECTION
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
NE CONCENTRATING INTO INTO A 500 NM WIDE PLUME THAT CONTINUES
ENE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS MOST
OF FLORIDA. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE SMALL CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION DESCRIBED ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ITCZ
QUICKLY EVAPORATES IN THE DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATING THE TROPICS
TO THE E OF 106W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N137W TO 20N110W. A BROAD MIX OF
SWELLS HAS RESULTED COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT ACROSS THE PACIFIC
WATERS W OF 133W. THE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT
TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE NE OF THE RIDGE ARE CURRENTLY
SUBSIDING TO NW AT 10-15 KT...BUT THE ASSOCIATED NW SWELLS WILL
REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN THE
FORM OF 5-8 FT SEAS. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 4-6
FT ON SAT. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A BATCH 20-25 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH 8-11 FT SEAS...WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS
BETWEEN 125-135W ON SAT NIGHT...AND SHIFT SW TO ALONG 22N ON SUN
NIGHT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...S-SW 10-15 KT WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN RELAX TO 10-15
KT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON MON
NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ON TUE WITH ONLY A 5-10 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO
RESUME TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING ON SUN AND
MON NIGHTS.

.GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT TILL
MON NIGHT WHEN GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT.


$$
NELSON



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271904
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN
74W AND 76W UNTIL 1800 UTC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE BACK TO
GALE FORCE ON 0600 UTC SATURDAY UNTIL 1800 UTC SATURDAY...AND
AGAIN ON 0600 UTC SUNDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE E ATLANTIC...

A GALE CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO...DUE TO A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE
METEO-FRANCE FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 8N13W TO 2N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
3S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4S-4N BETWEEN 1W-
36W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO THE AFRICAN COAST E OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US WITH SW FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE GULF.
A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1040 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE UPPER MID WEST EXTENDS S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
GULF. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC AND THE FL STRAITS
NEAR 24N81W TO 22N87W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM NW OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING S FL. NW WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KT DOMINATE THE GULF NW OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS THE ENTIRE FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND
WILL THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE
BASIN WHILE DISSIPATING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY WITHIN 100 NM NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON
AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 42 HOURS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. 15-30 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW IS GENERATING PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 15N ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAIL IN THE
UPPER LEVELS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HAITI...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
MOVING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLAND IN CONTINUED EASTERLY TRADE
WIND FLOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC INTO THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION NEAR 31N70W TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR 25N80W...INCLUDING
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 27N. FARTHER
EAST...SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A LARGE 1040 MB HIGH CENTERED
JUST SE OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC S OF
32N. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLC IS PRODUCING GALE
FORCE WINDS JUST OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
FRONT WILL STALL OUT. THE FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO TRANSITION
TO A SHEAR LINE BY SAT AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND
THEN THE SHEAR LINE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271904
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN
74W AND 76W UNTIL 1800 UTC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE BACK TO
GALE FORCE ON 0600 UTC SATURDAY UNTIL 1800 UTC SATURDAY...AND
AGAIN ON 0600 UTC SUNDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE E ATLANTIC...

A GALE CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO...DUE TO A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE
METEO-FRANCE FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 8N13W TO 2N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
3S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4S-4N BETWEEN 1W-
36W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO THE AFRICAN COAST E OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US WITH SW FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE GULF.
A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1040 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE UPPER MID WEST EXTENDS S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
GULF. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC AND THE FL STRAITS
NEAR 24N81W TO 22N87W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM NW OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING S FL. NW WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KT DOMINATE THE GULF NW OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS THE ENTIRE FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND
WILL THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE
BASIN WHILE DISSIPATING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY WITHIN 100 NM NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON
AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 42 HOURS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. 15-30 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW IS GENERATING PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 15N ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAIL IN THE
UPPER LEVELS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HAITI...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
MOVING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLAND IN CONTINUED EASTERLY TRADE
WIND FLOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC INTO THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION NEAR 31N70W TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR 25N80W...INCLUDING
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 27N. FARTHER
EAST...SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A LARGE 1040 MB HIGH CENTERED
JUST SE OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC S OF
32N. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLC IS PRODUCING GALE
FORCE WINDS JUST OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
FRONT WILL STALL OUT. THE FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO TRANSITION
TO A SHEAR LINE BY SAT AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND
THEN THE SHEAR LINE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271904
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN
74W AND 76W UNTIL 1800 UTC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE BACK TO
GALE FORCE ON 0600 UTC SATURDAY UNTIL 1800 UTC SATURDAY...AND
AGAIN ON 0600 UTC SUNDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE E ATLANTIC...

A GALE CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO...DUE TO A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE
METEO-FRANCE FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 8N13W TO 2N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
3S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4S-4N BETWEEN 1W-
36W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO THE AFRICAN COAST E OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US WITH SW FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE GULF.
A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1040 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE UPPER MID WEST EXTENDS S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
GULF. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC AND THE FL STRAITS
NEAR 24N81W TO 22N87W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM NW OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING S FL. NW WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KT DOMINATE THE GULF NW OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS THE ENTIRE FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND
WILL THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE
BASIN WHILE DISSIPATING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY WITHIN 100 NM NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON
AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 42 HOURS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. 15-30 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW IS GENERATING PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 15N ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAIL IN THE
UPPER LEVELS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HAITI...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
MOVING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLAND IN CONTINUED EASTERLY TRADE
WIND FLOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC INTO THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION NEAR 31N70W TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR 25N80W...INCLUDING
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 27N. FARTHER
EAST...SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A LARGE 1040 MB HIGH CENTERED
JUST SE OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC S OF
32N. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLC IS PRODUCING GALE
FORCE WINDS JUST OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
FRONT WILL STALL OUT. THE FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO TRANSITION
TO A SHEAR LINE BY SAT AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND
THEN THE SHEAR LINE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271904
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN
74W AND 76W UNTIL 1800 UTC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE BACK TO
GALE FORCE ON 0600 UTC SATURDAY UNTIL 1800 UTC SATURDAY...AND
AGAIN ON 0600 UTC SUNDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE E ATLANTIC...

A GALE CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO...DUE TO A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE
METEO-FRANCE FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 8N13W TO 2N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
3S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4S-4N BETWEEN 1W-
36W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO THE AFRICAN COAST E OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US WITH SW FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE GULF.
A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1040 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE UPPER MID WEST EXTENDS S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
GULF. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC AND THE FL STRAITS
NEAR 24N81W TO 22N87W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM NW OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING S FL. NW WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KT DOMINATE THE GULF NW OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS THE ENTIRE FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND
WILL THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE
BASIN WHILE DISSIPATING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY WITHIN 100 NM NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON
AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 42 HOURS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. 15-30 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW IS GENERATING PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 15N ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAIL IN THE
UPPER LEVELS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HAITI...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
MOVING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLAND IN CONTINUED EASTERLY TRADE
WIND FLOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC INTO THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION NEAR 31N70W TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR 25N80W...INCLUDING
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 27N. FARTHER
EAST...SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A LARGE 1040 MB HIGH CENTERED
JUST SE OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC S OF
32N. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLC IS PRODUCING GALE
FORCE WINDS JUST OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
FRONT WILL STALL OUT. THE FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO TRANSITION
TO A SHEAR LINE BY SAT AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND
THEN THE SHEAR LINE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271904
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN
74W AND 76W UNTIL 1800 UTC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE BACK TO
GALE FORCE ON 0600 UTC SATURDAY UNTIL 1800 UTC SATURDAY...AND
AGAIN ON 0600 UTC SUNDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE E ATLANTIC...

A GALE CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO...DUE TO A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE
METEO-FRANCE FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 8N13W TO 2N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
3S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4S-4N BETWEEN 1W-
36W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO THE AFRICAN COAST E OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US WITH SW FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE GULF.
A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1040 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE UPPER MID WEST EXTENDS S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
GULF. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC AND THE FL STRAITS
NEAR 24N81W TO 22N87W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM NW OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING S FL. NW WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KT DOMINATE THE GULF NW OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS THE ENTIRE FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND
WILL THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE
BASIN WHILE DISSIPATING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY WITHIN 100 NM NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON
AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 42 HOURS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. 15-30 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW IS GENERATING PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 15N ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAIL IN THE
UPPER LEVELS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HAITI...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
MOVING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLAND IN CONTINUED EASTERLY TRADE
WIND FLOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC INTO THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION NEAR 31N70W TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR 25N80W...INCLUDING
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 27N. FARTHER
EAST...SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A LARGE 1040 MB HIGH CENTERED
JUST SE OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC S OF
32N. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLC IS PRODUCING GALE
FORCE WINDS JUST OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
FRONT WILL STALL OUT. THE FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO TRANSITION
TO A SHEAR LINE BY SAT AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND
THEN THE SHEAR LINE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 271904
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN
74W AND 76W UNTIL 1800 UTC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE BACK TO
GALE FORCE ON 0600 UTC SATURDAY UNTIL 1800 UTC SATURDAY...AND
AGAIN ON 0600 UTC SUNDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE E ATLANTIC...

A GALE CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO...DUE TO A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE
METEO-FRANCE FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 8N13W TO 2N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
3S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4S-4N BETWEEN 1W-
36W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO THE AFRICAN COAST E OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US WITH SW FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE GULF.
A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1040 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE UPPER MID WEST EXTENDS S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
GULF. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC AND THE FL STRAITS
NEAR 24N81W TO 22N87W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM NW OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING S FL. NW WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KT DOMINATE THE GULF NW OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS THE ENTIRE FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND
WILL THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE
BASIN WHILE DISSIPATING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY WITHIN 100 NM NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON
AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 42 HOURS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. 15-30 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW IS GENERATING PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 15N ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAIL IN THE
UPPER LEVELS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HAITI...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
MOVING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLAND IN CONTINUED EASTERLY TRADE
WIND FLOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC INTO THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION NEAR 31N70W TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR 25N80W...INCLUDING
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 27N. FARTHER
EAST...SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A LARGE 1040 MB HIGH CENTERED
JUST SE OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC S OF
32N. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLC IS PRODUCING GALE
FORCE WINDS JUST OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
FRONT WILL STALL OUT. THE FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO TRANSITION
TO A SHEAR LINE BY SAT AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND
THEN THE SHEAR LINE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271538
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO EXPECTED
TO INDUCE BRIEF PERIOD OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS TONIGHT N OF
15N IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM 0000 UTC UNTIL 0900 UTC. BY
EARLY SAT MORNING THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT WITH 20
TO 30 KT WINDS LIKELY N OF 13-14N BETWEEN 95-96W IN THE REGION.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 11-12 FT TONIGHT THEN SUBSIDE TO 9-10 FT SAT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N83W TO 03N90W TO 04N96W...
WHERE THE ITCZ BECOMES EVIDENT...THEN CONTINUES TO 09N112W TO
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 117W AND 125W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF
ITCZ AXIS W OF 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 40N144W
TO 24N125W TO 20N113W. HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE PRIMARY RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE WILL BE DIFFUSE W OF 100W THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS WITH LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT SOUTHWARD E OF 135W SAT AND SUN...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM 30N117W TO 27N130W SAT NIGHT. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO INDUCE FRESH-STRONG SW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. MODERATE TRADE WINDS
WILL DOMINATE THE REGION N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 110W
THROUGH MON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL NE WIND SURGES TO 20-25 KT WILL
RESUME TONIGHT...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED
LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271538
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO EXPECTED
TO INDUCE BRIEF PERIOD OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS TONIGHT N OF
15N IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM 0000 UTC UNTIL 0900 UTC. BY
EARLY SAT MORNING THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT WITH 20
TO 30 KT WINDS LIKELY N OF 13-14N BETWEEN 95-96W IN THE REGION.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 11-12 FT TONIGHT THEN SUBSIDE TO 9-10 FT SAT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N83W TO 03N90W TO 04N96W...
WHERE THE ITCZ BECOMES EVIDENT...THEN CONTINUES TO 09N112W TO
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 117W AND 125W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF
ITCZ AXIS W OF 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 40N144W
TO 24N125W TO 20N113W. HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE PRIMARY RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE WILL BE DIFFUSE W OF 100W THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS WITH LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT SOUTHWARD E OF 135W SAT AND SUN...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM 30N117W TO 27N130W SAT NIGHT. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO INDUCE FRESH-STRONG SW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. MODERATE TRADE WINDS
WILL DOMINATE THE REGION N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 110W
THROUGH MON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL NE WIND SURGES TO 20-25 KT WILL
RESUME TONIGHT...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED
LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL



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