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000
AXNT20 KNHC 011147
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 10N33W
TO 3N34W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE
AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS
CONFINED TO WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 19N51W TO
9N53W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 13N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N21W 7N27W TO E OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N32W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 6N36W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N48W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
6N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N
BETWEEN 34W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF AND IS ANCHORED NEAR
25N90W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS FLORIDA TO A 1009 MB LOW OVER TAMPA BAY CONTINUING ALONG
27N85W 27N90W THEN DISSIPATING TO THE COAST OF LOUISIANA/TEXAS
NEAR THE BORDER. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N TO
THE FRONT BETWEEN 90W-94W. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING INLAND OVER
PORTIONS OF W LOUISIANA. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS TO OVER THE YUCATAN AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N BETWEEN 91W-93W AND
WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 93W-95W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NE AND EXITS THE GULF BY THU
NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONT TO ENTER THE GULF WILL BE A STRONG COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SE OFF THE TEXAS COAST FRI MORNING AND WILL
EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO UPPER MEXICAN COAST FRI
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS E ACROSS CUBA
THEN INTO THE W ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W
TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO CENTRAL AMERICA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT BETWEEN THESE UPPER
FEATURES ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 79W-84W. THE UPPER
TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 13N-17N W OF 80W TO OVER NE NICARAGUA...N HONDURAS...AND IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENTS ALONG 10N FROM
COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N E OF 82W TO INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN
THU EVENING REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY FRI EVENING.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES ACROSS THE ISLAND REMAIN CLEAR AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE ISLAND NE FLOW
ALOFT. THIS UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI WHEN THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT HEAVY
RAIN...BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING THROUGH EARLY FRI. TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
ISLAND EARLY SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS
CUBA INTO THE W ATLC TO NEAR 26N65W. A NARROW SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH DIPS S OVER THE NW ATLC THROUGH 32N74W TO 26N73W
SUPPORTING A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 32N72W AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
ALONG 30N73W TO 28N78W BECOMING STATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES
ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N70W ALONG 29N71W TO
25N74W. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT ON THE N SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO
THE FRONT W OF 70W AND FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 65W-70W. A SECOND
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH
32N59W TO 24N60W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E ANCHORED NEAR
27N54W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM
OF LINE FROM 26N68W 27N58W TO 32N55W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM 23N55W TO 28N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 22N56W TO 16N57W. THE AREA
BETWEEN THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 52W IS
EXPERIENCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM 17N55W TO 21N54W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 60W AND IS ANCHORED WELL N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. THE FRONT WILL LIE FROM 31N65W TO 28N68W TO
NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY THU AND STALL BETWEEN 27N-28N EARLY FRI
BEFORE DISSIPATING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 011147
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 10N33W
TO 3N34W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE
AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS
CONFINED TO WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 19N51W TO
9N53W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 13N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N21W 7N27W TO E OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N32W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 6N36W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N48W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
6N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N
BETWEEN 34W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF AND IS ANCHORED NEAR
25N90W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS FLORIDA TO A 1009 MB LOW OVER TAMPA BAY CONTINUING ALONG
27N85W 27N90W THEN DISSIPATING TO THE COAST OF LOUISIANA/TEXAS
NEAR THE BORDER. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N TO
THE FRONT BETWEEN 90W-94W. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING INLAND OVER
PORTIONS OF W LOUISIANA. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS TO OVER THE YUCATAN AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N BETWEEN 91W-93W AND
WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 93W-95W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NE AND EXITS THE GULF BY THU
NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONT TO ENTER THE GULF WILL BE A STRONG COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SE OFF THE TEXAS COAST FRI MORNING AND WILL
EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO UPPER MEXICAN COAST FRI
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS E ACROSS CUBA
THEN INTO THE W ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W
TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO CENTRAL AMERICA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT BETWEEN THESE UPPER
FEATURES ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 79W-84W. THE UPPER
TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 13N-17N W OF 80W TO OVER NE NICARAGUA...N HONDURAS...AND IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENTS ALONG 10N FROM
COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N E OF 82W TO INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN
THU EVENING REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY FRI EVENING.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES ACROSS THE ISLAND REMAIN CLEAR AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE ISLAND NE FLOW
ALOFT. THIS UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI WHEN THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT HEAVY
RAIN...BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING THROUGH EARLY FRI. TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
ISLAND EARLY SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS
CUBA INTO THE W ATLC TO NEAR 26N65W. A NARROW SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH DIPS S OVER THE NW ATLC THROUGH 32N74W TO 26N73W
SUPPORTING A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 32N72W AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
ALONG 30N73W TO 28N78W BECOMING STATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES
ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N70W ALONG 29N71W TO
25N74W. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT ON THE N SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO
THE FRONT W OF 70W AND FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 65W-70W. A SECOND
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH
32N59W TO 24N60W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E ANCHORED NEAR
27N54W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM
OF LINE FROM 26N68W 27N58W TO 32N55W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM 23N55W TO 28N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 22N56W TO 16N57W. THE AREA
BETWEEN THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 52W IS
EXPERIENCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM 17N55W TO 21N54W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 60W AND IS ANCHORED WELL N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. THE FRONT WILL LIE FROM 31N65W TO 28N68W TO
NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY THU AND STALL BETWEEN 27N-28N EARLY FRI
BEFORE DISSIPATING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
ABNT30 KNHC 011147
TWSAT

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

ONLY TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN IN
SEPTEMBER. ONE OF THESE...EDOUARD...BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE. BASED
ON A 30-YEAR (1981-2010) CLIMATOLOGY...FOUR NAMED STORMS
TYPICALLY FORM IN THE BASIN IN SEPTEMBER...WITH TWO OR THREE OF
THOSE BECOMING HURRICANES...AND ONE REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE
STRENGTH.

IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...ACTIVITY
IN THE BASIN SO FAR IN 2014 HAS ONLY BEEN ABOUT 43 PERCENT OF THE
1981-2010 AVERAGE.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/2014ATLAN.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME                DATES         MAX WIND (MPH)
---------------------------------------------------
H  ARTHUR            1-5 JUL           100
TD TWO             21-23 JUL            35
H  BERTHA            1-6 AUG            80
H  CRISTOBAL       23-29 AUG            85
TS DOLLY             1-3 SEP            50
MH EDOUARD         11-19 SEP           115
---------------------------------------------------

* DENOTES A STORM FOR WHICH THE POST-STORM ANALYSIS IS COMPLETE.

$$
HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT



000
ABNT30 KNHC 011147
TWSAT

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

ONLY TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN IN
SEPTEMBER. ONE OF THESE...EDOUARD...BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE. BASED
ON A 30-YEAR (1981-2010) CLIMATOLOGY...FOUR NAMED STORMS
TYPICALLY FORM IN THE BASIN IN SEPTEMBER...WITH TWO OR THREE OF
THOSE BECOMING HURRICANES...AND ONE REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE
STRENGTH.

IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...ACTIVITY
IN THE BASIN SO FAR IN 2014 HAS ONLY BEEN ABOUT 43 PERCENT OF THE
1981-2010 AVERAGE.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/2014ATLAN.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME                DATES         MAX WIND (MPH)
---------------------------------------------------
H  ARTHUR            1-5 JUL           100
TD TWO             21-23 JUL            35
H  BERTHA            1-6 AUG            80
H  CRISTOBAL       23-29 AUG            85
TS DOLLY             1-3 SEP            50
MH EDOUARD         11-19 SEP           115
---------------------------------------------------

* DENOTES A STORM FOR WHICH THE POST-STORM ANALYSIS IS COMPLETE.

$$
HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT



000
ABNT30 KNHC 011147
TWSAT

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

ONLY TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN IN
SEPTEMBER. ONE OF THESE...EDOUARD...BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE. BASED
ON A 30-YEAR (1981-2010) CLIMATOLOGY...FOUR NAMED STORMS
TYPICALLY FORM IN THE BASIN IN SEPTEMBER...WITH TWO OR THREE OF
THOSE BECOMING HURRICANES...AND ONE REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE
STRENGTH.

IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...ACTIVITY
IN THE BASIN SO FAR IN 2014 HAS ONLY BEEN ABOUT 43 PERCENT OF THE
1981-2010 AVERAGE.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/2014ATLAN.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME                DATES         MAX WIND (MPH)
---------------------------------------------------
H  ARTHUR            1-5 JUL           100
TD TWO             21-23 JUL            35
H  BERTHA            1-6 AUG            80
H  CRISTOBAL       23-29 AUG            85
TS DOLLY             1-3 SEP            50
MH EDOUARD         11-19 SEP           115
---------------------------------------------------

* DENOTES A STORM FOR WHICH THE POST-STORM ANALYSIS IS COMPLETE.

$$
HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT



000
ABNT30 KNHC 011147
TWSAT

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

ONLY TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN IN
SEPTEMBER. ONE OF THESE...EDOUARD...BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE. BASED
ON A 30-YEAR (1981-2010) CLIMATOLOGY...FOUR NAMED STORMS
TYPICALLY FORM IN THE BASIN IN SEPTEMBER...WITH TWO OR THREE OF
THOSE BECOMING HURRICANES...AND ONE REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE
STRENGTH.

IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...ACTIVITY
IN THE BASIN SO FAR IN 2014 HAS ONLY BEEN ABOUT 43 PERCENT OF THE
1981-2010 AVERAGE.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/2014ATLAN.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME                DATES         MAX WIND (MPH)
---------------------------------------------------
H  ARTHUR            1-5 JUL           100
TD TWO             21-23 JUL            35
H  BERTHA            1-6 AUG            80
H  CRISTOBAL       23-29 AUG            85
TS DOLLY             1-3 SEP            50
MH EDOUARD         11-19 SEP           115
---------------------------------------------------

* DENOTES A STORM FOR WHICH THE POST-STORM ANALYSIS IS COMPLETE.

$$
HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT



000
ACPN50 PHFO 011145
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST WED OCT 1 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.


$$

REYNES






000
ACPN50 PHFO 011145
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST WED OCT 1 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.


$$

REYNES






000
ACPN50 PHFO 011145
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST WED OCT 1 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.


$$

REYNES






000
ACPN50 PHFO 011145
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST WED OCT 1 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.


$$

REYNES






000
ACCA62 TJSJ 011143
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT MIERCOLES 1 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BERG




000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011141
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased a little in
association with an elongated area of low pressure located a couple
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions are favorable for a tropical depression to form later
today or Thursday while the system moves toward the west-northwest
or northwest near 10 mph. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation,
this disturbance will likely produce locally heavy rains over
portions of southern Mexico that could cause flash flooding and mud
slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011141
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased a little in
association with an elongated area of low pressure located a couple
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions are favorable for a tropical depression to form later
today or Thursday while the system moves toward the west-northwest
or northwest near 10 mph. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation,
this disturbance will likely produce locally heavy rains over
portions of southern Mexico that could cause flash flooding and mud
slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABNT20 KNHC 011140
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg


000
ABNT20 KNHC 011140
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010915
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED OCT 1 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
1005 MB LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 15N102W
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. IT IS LOCATED WHERE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
VORTICITY IS HIGH FROM TROPICAL WAVE ENERGY ACCUMULATION DURING
THE PAST FEW DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED MAINLY WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE LOW BETWEEN 101W AND 104W.
GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS SHOW SLOW DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES W-NW
PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SW MEXICO IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. IT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 12N92W TO A LOW PRES NEAR
15N102W TO 12N118W TO 12N135W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 12N135W TO
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
60 NM N AND 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 117W.

...DISCUSSION...
SUSTAINED FRESH SW MONSOONAL FLOW S OF THE LOW NEAR 15N102W IS
EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION S OF 15N TO PRODUCE AN AREA
OF 7-10 FT SEAS THROUGH THU FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND
118W.

LATEST ASCAT DATA SHOWS 30-33 KT NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS W OF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS IS GENERATING LARGE N-NW SWELL WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP S OF 30N BEHIND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM
CATALINA ISLAND TO 29N124W TO 30N130W LATER THIS MORNING...THEN
CONTINUE N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W THROUGH THU.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER NE WATERS AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW
MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THU THROUGH FRI...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ALLOWING SEAS TO
BUILD TO 5-7 FT IN GULF WATERS N OF 25N.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010915
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED OCT 1 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
1005 MB LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 15N102W
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. IT IS LOCATED WHERE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
VORTICITY IS HIGH FROM TROPICAL WAVE ENERGY ACCUMULATION DURING
THE PAST FEW DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED MAINLY WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE LOW BETWEEN 101W AND 104W.
GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS SHOW SLOW DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES W-NW
PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SW MEXICO IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. IT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 12N92W TO A LOW PRES NEAR
15N102W TO 12N118W TO 12N135W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 12N135W TO
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
60 NM N AND 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 117W.

...DISCUSSION...
SUSTAINED FRESH SW MONSOONAL FLOW S OF THE LOW NEAR 15N102W IS
EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION S OF 15N TO PRODUCE AN AREA
OF 7-10 FT SEAS THROUGH THU FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND
118W.

LATEST ASCAT DATA SHOWS 30-33 KT NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS W OF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS IS GENERATING LARGE N-NW SWELL WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP S OF 30N BEHIND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM
CATALINA ISLAND TO 29N124W TO 30N130W LATER THIS MORNING...THEN
CONTINUE N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W THROUGH THU.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER NE WATERS AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW
MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THU THROUGH FRI...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ALLOWING SEAS TO
BUILD TO 5-7 FT IN GULF WATERS N OF 25N.

$$
MUNDELL



000
WTPQ32 PGUM 010906 CCB
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TYPHOON PHANFONE ADVISORY NUMBER 11...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
800 PM CHST WED OCT 1 2014

...TYPHOON PHANFONE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS...

CORRECTION TO DISTANCES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 142.0E

ABOUT 245 MILES W OF PAGAN
ABOUT 325 MILES NW OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 375 MILES NNW OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW...310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON PHANFONE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 142.0 EAST.

PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND 17 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH. SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE GUAM AT 200 AM CHST THURSDAY MORNING.


ZIOBRO

$$











000
WTPQ32 PGUM 010905 CCA
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TYPHOON PHANFONE ADVISORY NUMBER 11...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
800 PM CHST WED OCT 1 2014

...TYPHOON PHANFONE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS...

CORRECTION TO DISTNCES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 142.0E

ABOUT 245 MILES W OF PAGAN
ABOUT 325 MILES NW OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 375 MILES NNW OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW...310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON PHANFONE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 142.0 EAST.

PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND 17 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH. SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE GUAM AT 200 AM CHST THURSDAY MORNING.


ZIOBRO

$$








000
WTPQ32 PGUM 010905 CCA
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TYPHOON PHANFONE ADVISORY NUMBER 11...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
800 PM CHST WED OCT 1 2014

...TYPHOON PHANFONE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS...

CORRECTION TO DISTNCES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 142.0E

ABOUT 245 MILES W OF PAGAN
ABOUT 325 MILES NW OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 375 MILES NNW OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW...310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON PHANFONE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 142.0 EAST.

PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND 17 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH. SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE GUAM AT 200 AM CHST THURSDAY MORNING.


ZIOBRO

$$







000
WTPQ32 PGUM 010901
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TYPHOON PHANFONE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
800 PM CHST WED OCT 1 2014

...TYPHOON PHANFONE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 142.0E

ABOUT 200 MILES SW OF PAGAN
ABOUT 205 MILES NW OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 255 MILES NNW OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW...310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON PHANFONE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 142.0 EAST.

PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND 17 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH. SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE GUAM AT 200 AM CHST THURSDAY MORNING.


ZIOBRO

$$





000
WTPQ32 PGUM 010901
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TYPHOON PHANFONE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
800 PM CHST WED OCT 1 2014

...TYPHOON PHANFONE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 142.0E

ABOUT 200 MILES SW OF PAGAN
ABOUT 205 MILES NW OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 255 MILES NNW OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW...310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON PHANFONE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 142.0 EAST.

PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND 17 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH. SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE GUAM AT 200 AM CHST THURSDAY MORNING.


ZIOBRO

$$




000
ACPN50 PHFO 010545
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST TUE SEP 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.


$$

REYNES






000
ACPN50 PHFO 010545
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST TUE SEP 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.


$$

REYNES






000
ACPN50 PHFO 010545
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST TUE SEP 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.


$$

REYNES






000
ACPN50 PHFO 010545
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST TUE SEP 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.


$$

REYNES






000
AXNT20 KNHC 010540
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA HAS BEEN
RELOCATED AND NOW ANALYZED FROM 12N32W TO 2N34W. WAVE IS
PRECEDING THE BROAD SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BUT DUE TO DRY AIR OVER THE N PORTION
OF THE WAVE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 19N49W TO
6N52W MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE AND
WAS DROPPED FROM THE 0000 UTC ANALYSIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 12N20W 6N25W TO 5N37W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N48W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N
BETWEEN 31W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT AND IS ANCHORED
NEAR 25N91W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS MELBOURNE TO TAMPA BAY TO A 1009 MB LOW JUST OFFSHORE
NEAR 28N83W CONTINUING ALONG 27N88W 29N94W TO THE COAST OF TEXAS
NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N-
27N E OF 87W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. W PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT N AND INLAND
OVERNIGHT WHILE E HALF REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND DISSIPATES
THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONT TO ENTER THE GULF WILL BE A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SE OFF THE TEXAS COAST FRI
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS E ACROSS CUBA
AND INTO THE W ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W TROPICAL
ATLC ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO CENTRAL AMERICA. DIFFLUNCE
ALOFT BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 78W-
82W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS WELL S OF PANAMA AND THE SW
CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN WED
EVENING REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN BY FRI.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND AGAIN TONIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE ISLAND NE FLOW
ALOFT. THIS UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI WHEN THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT HEAVY
RAIN...BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS
CUBA INTO THE W ATLC TO NEAR 26N67W. A NARROW SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH DIPS S OVER THE NW ATLC THROUGH 32N75W TO 26N74W
SUPPORTING A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 31N75W AND A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING SW ALONG 29N78W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE
CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT ON THE N
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 175 NM OF LINE FROM OVER CUBA NEAR 23N79W
ALONG 26N73W TO 31N70W. A SECOND SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N60W TO 24N61W WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE TO THE E ANCHORED NEAR 26N52W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 175 NM OF LINE FROM 21N58W ALONG
26N58W TO 32N56W...AND FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 60W-65W. A SURFACE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 21N55W TO
14N57W. THE AREA BETWEEN THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND THE TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 50W IS EXPERIENCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 7N56W TO TO 19N53W. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 60W AND IS
ANCHORED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE W ATLC LOW WILL MOVE
E ACROSS N PORTIONS THROUGH THU AND DRAG THE FRONT SLOWLY S TO
NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL WED WHERE IT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN THROUGH
THU NIGHT WHILE WEAK FRONT LINGERS FROM 27N70W E-NE INTO CENTRAL
ATLC THROUGH FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 010540
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA HAS BEEN
RELOCATED AND NOW ANALYZED FROM 12N32W TO 2N34W. WAVE IS
PRECEDING THE BROAD SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BUT DUE TO DRY AIR OVER THE N PORTION
OF THE WAVE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 19N49W TO
6N52W MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE AND
WAS DROPPED FROM THE 0000 UTC ANALYSIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 12N20W 6N25W TO 5N37W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N48W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N
BETWEEN 31W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT AND IS ANCHORED
NEAR 25N91W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS MELBOURNE TO TAMPA BAY TO A 1009 MB LOW JUST OFFSHORE
NEAR 28N83W CONTINUING ALONG 27N88W 29N94W TO THE COAST OF TEXAS
NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N-
27N E OF 87W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. W PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT N AND INLAND
OVERNIGHT WHILE E HALF REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND DISSIPATES
THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONT TO ENTER THE GULF WILL BE A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SE OFF THE TEXAS COAST FRI
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS E ACROSS CUBA
AND INTO THE W ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W TROPICAL
ATLC ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO CENTRAL AMERICA. DIFFLUNCE
ALOFT BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 78W-
82W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS WELL S OF PANAMA AND THE SW
CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN WED
EVENING REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN BY FRI.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND AGAIN TONIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE ISLAND NE FLOW
ALOFT. THIS UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI WHEN THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT HEAVY
RAIN...BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS
CUBA INTO THE W ATLC TO NEAR 26N67W. A NARROW SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH DIPS S OVER THE NW ATLC THROUGH 32N75W TO 26N74W
SUPPORTING A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 31N75W AND A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING SW ALONG 29N78W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE
CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT ON THE N
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 175 NM OF LINE FROM OVER CUBA NEAR 23N79W
ALONG 26N73W TO 31N70W. A SECOND SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N60W TO 24N61W WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE TO THE E ANCHORED NEAR 26N52W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 175 NM OF LINE FROM 21N58W ALONG
26N58W TO 32N56W...AND FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 60W-65W. A SURFACE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 21N55W TO
14N57W. THE AREA BETWEEN THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND THE TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 50W IS EXPERIENCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 7N56W TO TO 19N53W. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 60W AND IS
ANCHORED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE W ATLC LOW WILL MOVE
E ACROSS N PORTIONS THROUGH THU AND DRAG THE FRONT SLOWLY S TO
NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL WED WHERE IT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN THROUGH
THU NIGHT WHILE WEAK FRONT LINGERS FROM 27N70W E-NE INTO CENTRAL
ATLC THROUGH FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010503
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure a few hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico has recently shown little change in
organization.  Environmental conditions conditions are favorable for
a tropical depression to form later today or Thursday while the
system moves toward the west-northwest or northwest near 10 mph.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance will
likely produce locally heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico that could cause flash flooding and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010503
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure a few hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico has recently shown little change in
organization.  Environmental conditions conditions are favorable for
a tropical depression to form later today or Thursday while the
system moves toward the west-northwest or northwest near 10 mph.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance will
likely produce locally heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico that could cause flash flooding and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 010502
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT MIERCOLES 1 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 010502
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT MIERCOLES 1 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 010502
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT MIERCOLES 1 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 010502
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT MIERCOLES 1 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN





000
ABNT20 KNHC 010501
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ABNT20 KNHC 010501
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
WTPQ82 PGUM 010327
HLSPQ2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON PHANFONE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
200 PM CHST WED OCT 1 2014

...TYPHOON PHANFONE MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. STORM INFORMATION UPDATED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED
ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT LOCATIONS OF THE
FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON PHANFONE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.8N...LONGITUDE 143.1E...OR ABOUT 200 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PAGAN...AND 190 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE STORM
MOTION WAS TOWARD THE WEST AT 9 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TYPHOON PHANFONE HAS MOVED WEST OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...
AND THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER TAKES
THE CENTER OF PHANFONE FARTHER AWAY. PHANFONE NO LONGER POSES A
THREAT TO THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS SHOULD CHECK THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST BEFORE
MAKING PLANS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THIS IS THE LAST LOCAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS...WITH LOCALLY STRONGER
GUSTS...WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE 8 TO 12 FEET
THROUGH THE NIGHT...STEADILY DECREASING ON THURSDAY.

$$

BIRCHARD




000
WTPQ82 PGUM 010327
HLSPQ2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON PHANFONE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
200 PM CHST WED OCT 1 2014

...TYPHOON PHANFONE MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. STORM INFORMATION UPDATED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED
ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT LOCATIONS OF THE
FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON PHANFONE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.8N...LONGITUDE 143.1E...OR ABOUT 200 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PAGAN...AND 190 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE STORM
MOTION WAS TOWARD THE WEST AT 9 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TYPHOON PHANFONE HAS MOVED WEST OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...
AND THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER TAKES
THE CENTER OF PHANFONE FARTHER AWAY. PHANFONE NO LONGER POSES A
THREAT TO THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS SHOULD CHECK THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST BEFORE
MAKING PLANS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THIS IS THE LAST LOCAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS...WITH LOCALLY STRONGER
GUSTS...WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE 8 TO 12 FEET
THROUGH THE NIGHT...STEADILY DECREASING ON THURSDAY.

$$

BIRCHARD




000
WTPQ82 PGUM 010327
HLSPQ2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON PHANFONE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
200 PM CHST WED OCT 1 2014

...TYPHOON PHANFONE MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. STORM INFORMATION UPDATED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED
ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT LOCATIONS OF THE
FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON PHANFONE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.8N...LONGITUDE 143.1E...OR ABOUT 200 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PAGAN...AND 190 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE STORM
MOTION WAS TOWARD THE WEST AT 9 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TYPHOON PHANFONE HAS MOVED WEST OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...
AND THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER TAKES
THE CENTER OF PHANFONE FARTHER AWAY. PHANFONE NO LONGER POSES A
THREAT TO THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS SHOULD CHECK THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST BEFORE
MAKING PLANS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THIS IS THE LAST LOCAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS...WITH LOCALLY STRONGER
GUSTS...WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE 8 TO 12 FEET
THROUGH THE NIGHT...STEADILY DECREASING ON THURSDAY.

$$

BIRCHARD




000
WTPQ82 PGUM 010327
HLSPQ2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON PHANFONE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
200 PM CHST WED OCT 1 2014

...TYPHOON PHANFONE MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. STORM INFORMATION UPDATED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED
ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT LOCATIONS OF THE
FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON PHANFONE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.8N...LONGITUDE 143.1E...OR ABOUT 200 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PAGAN...AND 190 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE STORM
MOTION WAS TOWARD THE WEST AT 9 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TYPHOON PHANFONE HAS MOVED WEST OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...
AND THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER TAKES
THE CENTER OF PHANFONE FARTHER AWAY. PHANFONE NO LONGER POSES A
THREAT TO THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS SHOULD CHECK THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST BEFORE
MAKING PLANS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THIS IS THE LAST LOCAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS...WITH LOCALLY STRONGER
GUSTS...WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE 8 TO 12 FEET
THROUGH THE NIGHT...STEADILY DECREASING ON THURSDAY.

$$

BIRCHARD




000
WTPQ32 PGUM 010322
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TYPHOON PHANFONE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM CHST WED OCT 1 2014

...TYPHOON PHANFONE TRACKING AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 143.1E
ABOUT 200 MILES SW OF PAGAN
ABOUT 205 MILES NW OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 255 MILES NNW OF GUAM
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W...280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON PHANFONE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 143.1 EAST. PHANFONE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 9 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PHANFONE CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...AND NO LONGER POSES
A THREAT TO LAND AREAS IN THE MARIANAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH. SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT ADVISORY...800 PM CHST THIS EVENING.

$$

BIRCHARD





000
WTPQ32 PGUM 010322
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TYPHOON PHANFONE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM CHST WED OCT 1 2014

...TYPHOON PHANFONE TRACKING AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 143.1E
ABOUT 200 MILES SW OF PAGAN
ABOUT 205 MILES NW OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 255 MILES NNW OF GUAM
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W...280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON PHANFONE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 143.1 EAST. PHANFONE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 9 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PHANFONE CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...AND NO LONGER POSES
A THREAT TO LAND AREAS IN THE MARIANAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH. SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT ADVISORY...800 PM CHST THIS EVENING.

$$

BIRCHARD




000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010254
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED OCT 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1005 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 15N102W REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED
AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. THE LOW IS IN A
REGION WHERE 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY
ENERGY FROM TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGES DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF LOW
FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 101W AND 105W. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SLOWLY ORGANIZE DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE W-NW PARALLELING THE WEST-
CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO BENEATH A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THE LOW PRESSURE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION... THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
NONE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N81W TO 1005 MB LOW
PRES NEAR 15N102W TO 13N106W TO 12N134W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
12N134W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO
07N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W...FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 101W AND
105W...AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 103W AND 117W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 17N
BETWEEN 91W AND 101W.

...DISCUSSION...
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL
FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW NEAR
15N102W GENERALLY FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 115W THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY. SW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR 20 KT...AS
GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME ARE IN AGREEMENT ON SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...A BROAD AREA OF SEAS TO 11 FT ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
MONSOONAL FLOW AS A LONG PERIOD SW SWELL TRAIN...CURRENTLY S OF
13N BETWEEN 97W AND 132W...PROPAGATES ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS
FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST...
REACHING THE CONTINENT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010254
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED OCT 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1005 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 15N102W REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED
AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. THE LOW IS IN A
REGION WHERE 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY
ENERGY FROM TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGES DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF LOW
FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 101W AND 105W. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SLOWLY ORGANIZE DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE W-NW PARALLELING THE WEST-
CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO BENEATH A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THE LOW PRESSURE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION... THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
NONE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N81W TO 1005 MB LOW
PRES NEAR 15N102W TO 13N106W TO 12N134W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
12N134W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO
07N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W...FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 101W AND
105W...AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 103W AND 117W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 17N
BETWEEN 91W AND 101W.

...DISCUSSION...
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL
FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW NEAR
15N102W GENERALLY FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 115W THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY. SW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR 20 KT...AS
GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME ARE IN AGREEMENT ON SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...A BROAD AREA OF SEAS TO 11 FT ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
MONSOONAL FLOW AS A LONG PERIOD SW SWELL TRAIN...CURRENTLY S OF
13N BETWEEN 97W AND 132W...PROPAGATES ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS
FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST...
REACHING THE CONTINENT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

$$
HUFFMAN



000
WTPQ32 PGUM 010057
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TYPHOON PHANFONE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1100 AM CHST WED OCT 1 2014

...PHANFONE INTENSIFIES TO A TYPHOON...MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 143.6E
ABOUT 175 MILES SW OF PAGAN
ABOUT 175 MILES NW OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 205 MILES NNW OF ROTA
ABOUT 240 MILES NNW OF GUAM
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W...280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON PHANFONE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 143.6 EAST. PHANFONE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 9 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PHANFONE CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...BUT STRONG WINDS ON
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM REQUIRE A CONTINUATION OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH. SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

BIRCHARD




000
WTPQ32 PGUM 010057
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TYPHOON PHANFONE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1100 AM CHST WED OCT 1 2014

...PHANFONE INTENSIFIES TO A TYPHOON...MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 143.6E
ABOUT 175 MILES SW OF PAGAN
ABOUT 175 MILES NW OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 205 MILES NNW OF ROTA
ABOUT 240 MILES NNW OF GUAM
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W...280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON PHANFONE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 143.6 EAST. PHANFONE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 9 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PHANFONE CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...BUT STRONG WINDS ON
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM REQUIRE A CONTINUATION OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH. SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

BIRCHARD




000
WTPQ32 PGUM 010057
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TYPHOON PHANFONE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1100 AM CHST WED OCT 1 2014

...PHANFONE INTENSIFIES TO A TYPHOON...MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 143.6E
ABOUT 175 MILES SW OF PAGAN
ABOUT 175 MILES NW OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 205 MILES NNW OF ROTA
ABOUT 240 MILES NNW OF GUAM
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W...280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON PHANFONE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 143.6 EAST. PHANFONE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 9 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PHANFONE CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...BUT STRONG WINDS ON
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM REQUIRE A CONTINUATION OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH. SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

BIRCHARD




000
WTPQ32 PGUM 010057
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TYPHOON PHANFONE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1100 AM CHST WED OCT 1 2014

...PHANFONE INTENSIFIES TO A TYPHOON...MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 143.6E
ABOUT 175 MILES SW OF PAGAN
ABOUT 175 MILES NW OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 205 MILES NNW OF ROTA
ABOUT 240 MILES NNW OF GUAM
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W...280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON PHANFONE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 143.6 EAST. PHANFONE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 9 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PHANFONE CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...BUT STRONG WINDS ON
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM REQUIRE A CONTINUATION OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH. SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

BIRCHARD




000
AXNT20 KNHC 302347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 17N18W TO 12N21W TO 6N22W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE
GOES-R AIRMASS PRODUCT SHOWS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
MAINLY N OF 15N WHERE SOME DUST IS ALSO OBSERVED. MIDDLE-LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN THE CENTRAL WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHILE HIGH CLOUDS ARE
SW OF THE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 20W-25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N46W TO 7N49W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 50W-55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N92W TO 12N92W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE
WAVE IS BENEATH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
8N20W TO 5N37W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N37W TO 6N48W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 30W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
SEE ABOVE. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
AT 29N81W TO A 1009 MB LOW W OF TAMPA FLORIDA NEAR 28N84W TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF AT 27N88W TO THE NW GULF NEAR 29N93W TO
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AT 28N97W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR 25N93W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO DISSIPATE AND THE TAIL
END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TO BE OVER S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF
WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 17N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER MOST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
OVER E CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 15N70W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING W TO HONDURAS. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS SHOWERS WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 31N77W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS W TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR COCOA BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE FRONT. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N E
OF 50W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N
OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE N BAHAMAS...AND
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION E OF THE TROUGH
FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 68W-76W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER E
NEAR 29N59W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 22N-33N
BETWEEN 53W-59W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
ACPN50 PHFO 302345
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST TUE SEP 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

KODAMA






000
ACPN50 PHFO 302345
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST TUE SEP 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

KODAMA






000
ACPN50 PHFO 302345
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST TUE SEP 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

KODAMA






000
ACPN50 PHFO 302345
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST TUE SEP 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

KODAMA






000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302326
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel, located several hundred miles west
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An elongated area of low pressure a few hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico has shown little change in organization
during the past several hours.  Environmental conditions conditions
are favorable for a tropical depression to form tomorrow or Thursday
while the system moves toward the west-northwest or northwest near
10 mph. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance
will likely produce locally heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico that could cause flash flooding and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 302319
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT MARTES 30 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 302319
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT MARTES 30 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN



000
ABNT20 KNHC 302315
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABNT20 KNHC 302315
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven




000
WTPQ82 PGUM 302201
HLSPQ2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
800 AM CHST WED OCT 1 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE
FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED STORM INFORMATION.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED
ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT LOCATIONS OF THE
FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAGAN...ALAMAGAN
AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.7N...LONGITUDE 143.9E...OR ABOUT 155 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PAGAN...AND 140 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE STORM MOTION
WAS TOWARD THE WEST AT 13 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
PHANFONE HAS MOVED WEST OF THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...AND
THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER CONTINUES
TO TAKE THE CENTER OF PHANFONE FARTHER AWAY. PHANFONE IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WILL MOST LIKELY BECOME A TYPHOON
BY THIS AFTERNOON.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY INSIDE...PREFERABLY IN AN INTERIOR ROOM...AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE WHEN HIGH WINDS ARE OCCURRING
OR DURING TEMPORARY LULLS AS FLYING DEBRIS CAN CAUSE SERIOUS
INJURY.

AS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS DIMINISH...DO NOT GO OUTSIDE TO CHECK
FOR DAMAGE OR TO IMPLEMENT TEMPORARY REPAIRS UNTIL HIGH WINDS
FULLY SUBSIDE.

FOR SMALL CRAFT WHO FAILED TO MAKE IT TO SAFE HARBOR OR PORT...
AND ARE NOW IN DISTRESS...RADIO YOUR SITUATION ACCORDING TO
MARITIME PROTOCOL. IF APPROPRIATE...DEPLOY YOUR EMERGENCY
DISTRESS BEACON. ENSURE THAT EVERYONE IS WEARING LIFE JACKETS...
AND SURVIVAL SUITS IF AVAILABLE.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE RECOMMENDATIONS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ABOUT 2 PM CHST OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY CONTINUING ACROSS
PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 50
MPH THROUGH THIS MORNING ON PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW AS PHANFONE MOVES AWAY AND
INTENSIFIES.

DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO POORLY BUILT
STRUCTURES. MINOR DAMAGE TO BANANA TREES AND NEAR-COASTAL
AGRICULTURE IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM SALT SPRAY. SOME SMALL DEAD
LIMBS...RIPE COCONUTS AND DEAD PALM FRONDS MAY BE BLOWN FROM
TREES...AND SOME FRAGILE LEAVES MAY BE BLOWN FROM TREES SUCH AS
PAPAYA.

EXPECT SEAS TO 10 TO 15 FEET TODAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
WIND-GENERATED SURF MAY CAUSE 1 FOOT OF COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG
EXPOSED SHORELINES.

...INLAND FLOODING...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$

BIRCHARD




000
WTPQ82 PGUM 302201
HLSPQ2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
800 AM CHST WED OCT 1 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE
FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED STORM INFORMATION.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED
ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT LOCATIONS OF THE
FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAGAN...ALAMAGAN
AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.7N...LONGITUDE 143.9E...OR ABOUT 155 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PAGAN...AND 140 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE STORM MOTION
WAS TOWARD THE WEST AT 13 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
PHANFONE HAS MOVED WEST OF THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...AND
THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER CONTINUES
TO TAKE THE CENTER OF PHANFONE FARTHER AWAY. PHANFONE IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WILL MOST LIKELY BECOME A TYPHOON
BY THIS AFTERNOON.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY INSIDE...PREFERABLY IN AN INTERIOR ROOM...AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE WHEN HIGH WINDS ARE OCCURRING
OR DURING TEMPORARY LULLS AS FLYING DEBRIS CAN CAUSE SERIOUS
INJURY.

AS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS DIMINISH...DO NOT GO OUTSIDE TO CHECK
FOR DAMAGE OR TO IMPLEMENT TEMPORARY REPAIRS UNTIL HIGH WINDS
FULLY SUBSIDE.

FOR SMALL CRAFT WHO FAILED TO MAKE IT TO SAFE HARBOR OR PORT...
AND ARE NOW IN DISTRESS...RADIO YOUR SITUATION ACCORDING TO
MARITIME PROTOCOL. IF APPROPRIATE...DEPLOY YOUR EMERGENCY
DISTRESS BEACON. ENSURE THAT EVERYONE IS WEARING LIFE JACKETS...
AND SURVIVAL SUITS IF AVAILABLE.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE RECOMMENDATIONS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ABOUT 2 PM CHST OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY CONTINUING ACROSS
PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 50
MPH THROUGH THIS MORNING ON PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW AS PHANFONE MOVES AWAY AND
INTENSIFIES.

DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO POORLY BUILT
STRUCTURES. MINOR DAMAGE TO BANANA TREES AND NEAR-COASTAL
AGRICULTURE IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM SALT SPRAY. SOME SMALL DEAD
LIMBS...RIPE COCONUTS AND DEAD PALM FRONDS MAY BE BLOWN FROM
TREES...AND SOME FRAGILE LEAVES MAY BE BLOWN FROM TREES SUCH AS
PAPAYA.

EXPECT SEAS TO 10 TO 15 FEET TODAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
WIND-GENERATED SURF MAY CAUSE 1 FOOT OF COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG
EXPOSED SHORELINES.

...INLAND FLOODING...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$

BIRCHARD




000
WTPQ82 PGUM 302201
HLSPQ2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
800 AM CHST WED OCT 1 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE
FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED STORM INFORMATION.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED
ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT LOCATIONS OF THE
FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAGAN...ALAMAGAN
AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.7N...LONGITUDE 143.9E...OR ABOUT 155 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PAGAN...AND 140 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE STORM MOTION
WAS TOWARD THE WEST AT 13 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
PHANFONE HAS MOVED WEST OF THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...AND
THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER CONTINUES
TO TAKE THE CENTER OF PHANFONE FARTHER AWAY. PHANFONE IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WILL MOST LIKELY BECOME A TYPHOON
BY THIS AFTERNOON.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY INSIDE...PREFERABLY IN AN INTERIOR ROOM...AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE WHEN HIGH WINDS ARE OCCURRING
OR DURING TEMPORARY LULLS AS FLYING DEBRIS CAN CAUSE SERIOUS
INJURY.

AS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS DIMINISH...DO NOT GO OUTSIDE TO CHECK
FOR DAMAGE OR TO IMPLEMENT TEMPORARY REPAIRS UNTIL HIGH WINDS
FULLY SUBSIDE.

FOR SMALL CRAFT WHO FAILED TO MAKE IT TO SAFE HARBOR OR PORT...
AND ARE NOW IN DISTRESS...RADIO YOUR SITUATION ACCORDING TO
MARITIME PROTOCOL. IF APPROPRIATE...DEPLOY YOUR EMERGENCY
DISTRESS BEACON. ENSURE THAT EVERYONE IS WEARING LIFE JACKETS...
AND SURVIVAL SUITS IF AVAILABLE.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE RECOMMENDATIONS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ABOUT 2 PM CHST OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY CONTINUING ACROSS
PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 50
MPH THROUGH THIS MORNING ON PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW AS PHANFONE MOVES AWAY AND
INTENSIFIES.

DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO POORLY BUILT
STRUCTURES. MINOR DAMAGE TO BANANA TREES AND NEAR-COASTAL
AGRICULTURE IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM SALT SPRAY. SOME SMALL DEAD
LIMBS...RIPE COCONUTS AND DEAD PALM FRONDS MAY BE BLOWN FROM
TREES...AND SOME FRAGILE LEAVES MAY BE BLOWN FROM TREES SUCH AS
PAPAYA.

EXPECT SEAS TO 10 TO 15 FEET TODAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
WIND-GENERATED SURF MAY CAUSE 1 FOOT OF COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG
EXPOSED SHORELINES.

...INLAND FLOODING...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$

BIRCHARD




000
WTPQ82 PGUM 302201
HLSPQ2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
800 AM CHST WED OCT 1 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE
FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED STORM INFORMATION.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED
ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT LOCATIONS OF THE
FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAGAN...ALAMAGAN
AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.7N...LONGITUDE 143.9E...OR ABOUT 155 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PAGAN...AND 140 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE STORM MOTION
WAS TOWARD THE WEST AT 13 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
PHANFONE HAS MOVED WEST OF THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...AND
THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER CONTINUES
TO TAKE THE CENTER OF PHANFONE FARTHER AWAY. PHANFONE IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WILL MOST LIKELY BECOME A TYPHOON
BY THIS AFTERNOON.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY INSIDE...PREFERABLY IN AN INTERIOR ROOM...AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE WHEN HIGH WINDS ARE OCCURRING
OR DURING TEMPORARY LULLS AS FLYING DEBRIS CAN CAUSE SERIOUS
INJURY.

AS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS DIMINISH...DO NOT GO OUTSIDE TO CHECK
FOR DAMAGE OR TO IMPLEMENT TEMPORARY REPAIRS UNTIL HIGH WINDS
FULLY SUBSIDE.

FOR SMALL CRAFT WHO FAILED TO MAKE IT TO SAFE HARBOR OR PORT...
AND ARE NOW IN DISTRESS...RADIO YOUR SITUATION ACCORDING TO
MARITIME PROTOCOL. IF APPROPRIATE...DEPLOY YOUR EMERGENCY
DISTRESS BEACON. ENSURE THAT EVERYONE IS WEARING LIFE JACKETS...
AND SURVIVAL SUITS IF AVAILABLE.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE RECOMMENDATIONS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ABOUT 2 PM CHST OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY CONTINUING ACROSS
PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 50
MPH THROUGH THIS MORNING ON PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW AS PHANFONE MOVES AWAY AND
INTENSIFIES.

DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO POORLY BUILT
STRUCTURES. MINOR DAMAGE TO BANANA TREES AND NEAR-COASTAL
AGRICULTURE IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM SALT SPRAY. SOME SMALL DEAD
LIMBS...RIPE COCONUTS AND DEAD PALM FRONDS MAY BE BLOWN FROM
TREES...AND SOME FRAGILE LEAVES MAY BE BLOWN FROM TREES SUCH AS
PAPAYA.

EXPECT SEAS TO 10 TO 15 FEET TODAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
WIND-GENERATED SURF MAY CAUSE 1 FOOT OF COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG
EXPOSED SHORELINES.

...INLAND FLOODING...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$

BIRCHARD




000
WTPQ32 PGUM 302127
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM CHST WED OCT 1 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE
FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 143.9E
ABOUT 155 MILES SW OF PAGAN
ABOUT 165 MILES NW OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 200 MILES NNW OF ROTA
ABOUT 230 MILES NNW OF GUAM
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W...270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 143.9 EAST.
PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 13 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PHANFONE
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...BUT
STRONG WINDS ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE STORM REQUIRE A
CONTINUATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 MPH. SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND PHANFONE IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A TYPHOON LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM CHST THIS MORNING.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

BIRCHARD




000
WTPQ32 PGUM 302127
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM CHST WED OCT 1 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE
FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 143.9E
ABOUT 155 MILES SW OF PAGAN
ABOUT 165 MILES NW OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 200 MILES NNW OF ROTA
ABOUT 230 MILES NNW OF GUAM
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W...270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 143.9 EAST.
PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 13 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PHANFONE
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...BUT
STRONG WINDS ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE STORM REQUIRE A
CONTINUATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 MPH. SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND PHANFONE IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A TYPHOON LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM CHST THIS MORNING.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

BIRCHARD




000
WTPQ32 PGUM 302127
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM CHST WED OCT 1 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE
FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 143.9E
ABOUT 155 MILES SW OF PAGAN
ABOUT 165 MILES NW OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 200 MILES NNW OF ROTA
ABOUT 230 MILES NNW OF GUAM
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W...270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 143.9 EAST.
PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 13 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PHANFONE
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...BUT
STRONG WINDS ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE STORM REQUIRE A
CONTINUATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 MPH. SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND PHANFONE IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A TYPHOON LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM CHST THIS MORNING.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

BIRCHARD




000
WTPQ32 PGUM 302127
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM CHST WED OCT 1 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE
FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 143.9E
ABOUT 155 MILES SW OF PAGAN
ABOUT 165 MILES NW OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 200 MILES NNW OF ROTA
ABOUT 230 MILES NNW OF GUAM
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W...270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 143.9 EAST.
PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 13 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PHANFONE
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...BUT
STRONG WINDS ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE STORM REQUIRE A
CONTINUATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 MPH. SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND PHANFONE IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A TYPHOON LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM CHST THIS MORNING.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

BIRCHARD




000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302111
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.9N 117.5W AT
30/2100 UTC MOVING S AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
40 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AT THIS TIME WITH RACHEL EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY SPIN DOWN
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY. SEE THE LAST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

A 1007 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 15N101W REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED
AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. THE LOW IS IN A
REGION WHERE 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY
ENERGY FROM TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGES DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 94W AND 105W. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SLOWLY
ORGANIZE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE W-NW
PARALLELING THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. THE LOW PRESSURE
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N92W ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO ALONG
92W INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO BE ABSORBED INTO A LARGER AND BROADER 700 MB CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION TO THE WEST CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SPECIAL
FEATURES LOW. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 89W AND 94W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO A 1007 MB LOW PRES
NEAR 15N101W TO 12N114W TO 13N124W TO 11N133W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 11N133W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
04N TO 07N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W...AND FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN
108W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 94W AND 105W.

...DISCUSSION...
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL
FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW NEAR
15N101W GENERALLY FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 115W THROUGH
THURSDAY. SW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR 20 KT...AS GFS
AND ECMWF GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME ARE IN AGREEMENT ON SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...A BROAD AREA OF SEAS TO 11 FT ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
MONSOONAL FLOW AS A LONG PERIOD SW SWELL TRAIN...CURRENTLY S OF
10N BETWEEN 100W AND 133W...PROPAGATES ACROSS THE FORECAST
WATERS FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICAN
COAST...REACHING THE CONTINENT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302111
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.9N 117.5W AT
30/2100 UTC MOVING S AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
40 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AT THIS TIME WITH RACHEL EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY SPIN DOWN
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY. SEE THE LAST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

A 1007 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 15N101W REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED
AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. THE LOW IS IN A
REGION WHERE 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY
ENERGY FROM TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGES DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 94W AND 105W. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SLOWLY
ORGANIZE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE W-NW
PARALLELING THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. THE LOW PRESSURE
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N92W ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO ALONG
92W INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO BE ABSORBED INTO A LARGER AND BROADER 700 MB CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION TO THE WEST CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SPECIAL
FEATURES LOW. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 89W AND 94W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO A 1007 MB LOW PRES
NEAR 15N101W TO 12N114W TO 13N124W TO 11N133W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 11N133W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
04N TO 07N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W...AND FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN
108W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 94W AND 105W.

...DISCUSSION...
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL
FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW NEAR
15N101W GENERALLY FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 115W THROUGH
THURSDAY. SW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR 20 KT...AS GFS
AND ECMWF GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME ARE IN AGREEMENT ON SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...A BROAD AREA OF SEAS TO 11 FT ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
MONSOONAL FLOW AS A LONG PERIOD SW SWELL TRAIN...CURRENTLY S OF
10N BETWEEN 100W AND 133W...PROPAGATES ACROSS THE FORECAST
WATERS FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICAN
COAST...REACHING THE CONTINENT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302111
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.9N 117.5W AT
30/2100 UTC MOVING S AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
40 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AT THIS TIME WITH RACHEL EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY SPIN DOWN
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY. SEE THE LAST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

A 1007 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 15N101W REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED
AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. THE LOW IS IN A
REGION WHERE 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY
ENERGY FROM TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGES DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 94W AND 105W. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SLOWLY
ORGANIZE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE W-NW
PARALLELING THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. THE LOW PRESSURE
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N92W ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO ALONG
92W INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO BE ABSORBED INTO A LARGER AND BROADER 700 MB CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION TO THE WEST CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SPECIAL
FEATURES LOW. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 89W AND 94W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO A 1007 MB LOW PRES
NEAR 15N101W TO 12N114W TO 13N124W TO 11N133W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 11N133W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
04N TO 07N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W...AND FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN
108W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 94W AND 105W.

...DISCUSSION...
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL
FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW NEAR
15N101W GENERALLY FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 115W THROUGH
THURSDAY. SW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR 20 KT...AS GFS
AND ECMWF GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME ARE IN AGREEMENT ON SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...A BROAD AREA OF SEAS TO 11 FT ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
MONSOONAL FLOW AS A LONG PERIOD SW SWELL TRAIN...CURRENTLY S OF
10N BETWEEN 100W AND 133W...PROPAGATES ACROSS THE FORECAST
WATERS FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICAN
COAST...REACHING THE CONTINENT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302111
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.9N 117.5W AT
30/2100 UTC MOVING S AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
40 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AT THIS TIME WITH RACHEL EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY SPIN DOWN
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY. SEE THE LAST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

A 1007 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 15N101W REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED
AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. THE LOW IS IN A
REGION WHERE 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY
ENERGY FROM TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGES DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 94W AND 105W. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SLOWLY
ORGANIZE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE W-NW
PARALLELING THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. THE LOW PRESSURE
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N92W ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO ALONG
92W INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO BE ABSORBED INTO A LARGER AND BROADER 700 MB CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION TO THE WEST CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SPECIAL
FEATURES LOW. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 89W AND 94W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO A 1007 MB LOW PRES
NEAR 15N101W TO 12N114W TO 13N124W TO 11N133W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 11N133W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
04N TO 07N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W...AND FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN
108W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 94W AND 105W.

...DISCUSSION...
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL
FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW NEAR
15N101W GENERALLY FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 115W THROUGH
THURSDAY. SW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR 20 KT...AS GFS
AND ECMWF GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME ARE IN AGREEMENT ON SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...A BROAD AREA OF SEAS TO 11 FT ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
MONSOONAL FLOW AS A LONG PERIOD SW SWELL TRAIN...CURRENTLY S OF
10N BETWEEN 100W AND 133W...PROPAGATES ACROSS THE FORECAST
WATERS FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICAN
COAST...REACHING THE CONTINENT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

$$
HUFFMAN


000
WTPZ33 KNHC 302057
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...RACHEL BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 117.5W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 2 MPH...4
KM/H...AND A SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RACHEL IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A SURFACE
TROUGH BY FRIDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON RACHEL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/RAMOS




000
WTPZ33 KNHC 302057
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...RACHEL BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 117.5W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 2 MPH...4
KM/H...AND A SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RACHEL IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A SURFACE
TROUGH BY FRIDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON RACHEL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/RAMOS




000
WTPZ33 KNHC 302057
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...RACHEL BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 117.5W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 2 MPH...4
KM/H...AND A SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RACHEL IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A SURFACE
TROUGH BY FRIDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON RACHEL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/RAMOS




000
WTPZ33 KNHC 302057
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...RACHEL BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 117.5W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 2 MPH...4
KM/H...AND A SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RACHEL IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A SURFACE
TROUGH BY FRIDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON RACHEL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/RAMOS




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 302056
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
2100 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 117.5W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 117.5W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 117.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.8N 117.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 22.6N 118.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 22.4N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 22.2N 119.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 117.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON RACHEL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/RAMOS




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 302056
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
2100 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 117.5W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 117.5W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 117.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.8N 117.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 22.6N 118.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 22.4N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 22.2N 119.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 117.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON RACHEL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/RAMOS





000
WTPQ32 PGUM 301859
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
500 AM CHST WED OCT 1 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE
FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 144.4E
ABOUT 135 MILES NW OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 175 MILES NNW OF ROTA
ABOUT 220 MILES N OF GUAM
ABOUT 135 MILES SW OF PAGAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W...270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 144.4 EAST.
PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 13 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PHANFONE
HAS PASSED OVER THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 MPH. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TYPHOON LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM CHST WEDNESDAY.

$$

BIRCHARD




000
WTPQ32 PGUM 301859
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
500 AM CHST WED OCT 1 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE
FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 144.4E
ABOUT 135 MILES NW OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 175 MILES NNW OF ROTA
ABOUT 220 MILES N OF GUAM
ABOUT 135 MILES SW OF PAGAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W...270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 144.4 EAST.
PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 13 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PHANFONE
HAS PASSED OVER THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 MPH. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TYPHOON LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM CHST WEDNESDAY.

$$

BIRCHARD





000
AXNT20 KNHC 301808 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CORRECTION IN ORDER TO ELIMINATE THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION
PARAGRAPH ABOUT A MIDDLE LEVEL/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 10W
AND 20W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N44W 14N46W 7N48W.
THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WAVE...AT THE SOUTHERN END OF
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W...FROM 22N SOUTHWARD...ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 9N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 9N21W TO 6N33W...AND 5N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 15W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE BAHAMAS...AFFECTING
FLORIDA...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N79W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...TO ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A FEW SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A STATIONARY FRONT IS
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...EXTENDING FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N77W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...TO A
GULF OF MEXICO 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N84W.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO
27N88W AND 28N92W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N92W TO
THE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS NEAR 29N95W...TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG IN
THE NORTH PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE NORTH OF 21N97W 22N90W...BEYOND THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE
WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A BIT OF WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NOTED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.56 IN
GUADALAJARA IN MEXICO...0.53 IN VERACRUZ IN MEXICO...AND 0.38 IN
MERIDA MEXICO...

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...
KMZG...KGVX...KVAF...KVQT...KIKT...KVOA...AND KDLP.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE
IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHERN/COASTAL
SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA...AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...IN SOUTHERN/COASTAL
SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
FROM PERRY WESTWARD...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN IN
THE TAMPA-ST.PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA...IN SARASOTA WITH
RAIN...AND JUST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN PUNTA GORDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 32N63W TO 26N61W 22N58W...ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/
PUERTO RICO...INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 56W AND 59W...
AND FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 61W AND 72W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 555W AND 62W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.25 IN
MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND 10N86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N81W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO A WEAKENING CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW CROSSES
HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-PUERTO RICO-TO-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROUGH WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME...MAINTAINING THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA...WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.20 IN
BERMUDA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 30/1200 UTC FOR BERMUDA IS 0.73.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 18N53W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 18N53W
CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND
60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N52W 14N55W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO
13N BETWEEN 47W AND 54W...AND FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 51W AND
54W. ISOLATED MODERATE...AND WEAKENING...FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN
46W AND 49W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 44W...RELATED TO A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH THAT
ARE IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ALSO FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W
AND 30W...RELATED TO AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH THAT
ORIGINATE IN THE AREA THAT IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF 32N.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N37W TO 28N53W 21N64W...ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...
TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 301808 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CORRECTION IN ORDER TO ELIMINATE THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION
PARAGRAPH ABOUT A MIDDLE LEVEL/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 10W
AND 20W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N44W 14N46W 7N48W.
THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WAVE...AT THE SOUTHERN END OF
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W...FROM 22N SOUTHWARD...ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 9N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 9N21W TO 6N33W...AND 5N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 15W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE BAHAMAS...AFFECTING
FLORIDA...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N79W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...TO ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A FEW SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A STATIONARY FRONT IS
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...EXTENDING FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N77W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...TO A
GULF OF MEXICO 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N84W.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO
27N88W AND 28N92W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N92W TO
THE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS NEAR 29N95W...TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG IN
THE NORTH PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE NORTH OF 21N97W 22N90W...BEYOND THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE
WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A BIT OF WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NOTED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.56 IN
GUADALAJARA IN MEXICO...0.53 IN VERACRUZ IN MEXICO...AND 0.38 IN
MERIDA MEXICO...

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...
KMZG...KGVX...KVAF...KVQT...KIKT...KVOA...AND KDLP.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE
IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHERN/COASTAL
SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA...AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...IN SOUTHERN/COASTAL
SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
FROM PERRY WESTWARD...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN IN
THE TAMPA-ST.PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA...IN SARASOTA WITH
RAIN...AND JUST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN PUNTA GORDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 32N63W TO 26N61W 22N58W...ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/
PUERTO RICO...INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 56W AND 59W...
AND FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 61W AND 72W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 555W AND 62W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.25 IN
MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND 10N86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N81W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO A WEAKENING CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW CROSSES
HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-PUERTO RICO-TO-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROUGH WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME...MAINTAINING THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA...WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.20 IN
BERMUDA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 30/1200 UTC FOR BERMUDA IS 0.73.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 18N53W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 18N53W
CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND
60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N52W 14N55W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO
13N BETWEEN 47W AND 54W...AND FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 51W AND
54W. ISOLATED MODERATE...AND WEAKENING...FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN
46W AND 49W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 44W...RELATED TO A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH THAT
ARE IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ALSO FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W
AND 30W...RELATED TO AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH THAT
ORIGINATE IN THE AREA THAT IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF 32N.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N37W TO 28N53W 21N64W...ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...
TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 301808 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CORRECTION IN ORDER TO ELIMINATE THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION
PARAGRAPH ABOUT A MIDDLE LEVEL/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 10W
AND 20W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N44W 14N46W 7N48W.
THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WAVE...AT THE SOUTHERN END OF
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W...FROM 22N SOUTHWARD...ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 9N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 9N21W TO 6N33W...AND 5N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 15W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE BAHAMAS...AFFECTING
FLORIDA...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N79W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...TO ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A FEW SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A STATIONARY FRONT IS
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...EXTENDING FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N77W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...TO A
GULF OF MEXICO 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N84W.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO
27N88W AND 28N92W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N92W TO
THE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS NEAR 29N95W...TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG IN
THE NORTH PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE NORTH OF 21N97W 22N90W...BEYOND THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE
WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A BIT OF WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NOTED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.56 IN
GUADALAJARA IN MEXICO...0.53 IN VERACRUZ IN MEXICO...AND 0.38 IN
MERIDA MEXICO...

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...
KMZG...KGVX...KVAF...KVQT...KIKT...KVOA...AND KDLP.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE
IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHERN/COASTAL
SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA...AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...IN SOUTHERN/COASTAL
SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
FROM PERRY WESTWARD...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN IN
THE TAMPA-ST.PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA...IN SARASOTA WITH
RAIN...AND JUST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN PUNTA GORDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 32N63W TO 26N61W 22N58W...ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/
PUERTO RICO...INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 56W AND 59W...
AND FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 61W AND 72W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 555W AND 62W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.25 IN
MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND 10N86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N81W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO A WEAKENING CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW CROSSES
HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-PUERTO RICO-TO-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROUGH WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME...MAINTAINING THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA...WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.20 IN
BERMUDA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 30/1200 UTC FOR BERMUDA IS 0.73.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 18N53W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 18N53W
CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND
60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N52W 14N55W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO
13N BETWEEN 47W AND 54W...AND FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 51W AND
54W. ISOLATED MODERATE...AND WEAKENING...FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN
46W AND 49W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 44W...RELATED TO A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH THAT
ARE IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ALSO FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W
AND 30W...RELATED TO AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH THAT
ORIGINATE IN THE AREA THAT IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF 32N.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N37W TO 28N53W 21N64W...ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...
TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 301808 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CORRECTION IN ORDER TO ELIMINATE THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION
PARAGRAPH ABOUT A MIDDLE LEVEL/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 10W
AND 20W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N44W 14N46W 7N48W.
THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WAVE...AT THE SOUTHERN END OF
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W...FROM 22N SOUTHWARD...ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 9N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 9N21W TO 6N33W...AND 5N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 15W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE BAHAMAS...AFFECTING
FLORIDA...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N79W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...TO ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A FEW SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A STATIONARY FRONT IS
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...EXTENDING FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N77W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...TO A
GULF OF MEXICO 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N84W.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO
27N88W AND 28N92W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N92W TO
THE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS NEAR 29N95W...TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG IN
THE NORTH PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE NORTH OF 21N97W 22N90W...BEYOND THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE
WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A BIT OF WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NOTED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.56 IN
GUADALAJARA IN MEXICO...0.53 IN VERACRUZ IN MEXICO...AND 0.38 IN
MERIDA MEXICO...

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...
KMZG...KGVX...KVAF...KVQT...KIKT...KVOA...AND KDLP.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE
IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHERN/COASTAL
SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA...AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...IN SOUTHERN/COASTAL
SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
FROM PERRY WESTWARD...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN IN
THE TAMPA-ST.PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA...IN SARASOTA WITH
RAIN...AND JUST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN PUNTA GORDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 32N63W TO 26N61W 22N58W...ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/
PUERTO RICO...INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 56W AND 59W...
AND FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 61W AND 72W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 555W AND 62W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.25 IN
MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND 10N86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N81W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO A WEAKENING CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW CROSSES
HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-PUERTO RICO-TO-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROUGH WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME...MAINTAINING THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA...WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.20 IN
BERMUDA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 30/1200 UTC FOR BERMUDA IS 0.73.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 18N53W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 18N53W
CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND
60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N52W 14N55W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO
13N BETWEEN 47W AND 54W...AND FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 51W AND
54W. ISOLATED MODERATE...AND WEAKENING...FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN
46W AND 49W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 44W...RELATED TO A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH THAT
ARE IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ALSO FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W
AND 30W...RELATED TO AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH THAT
ORIGINATE IN THE AREA THAT IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF 32N.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N37W TO 28N53W 21N64W...ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...
TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 301804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 10W
AND 20W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N44W 14N46W 7N48W.
THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WAVE...AT THE SOUTHERN END OF
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W...FROM 22N SOUTHWARD...ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 9N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 9N21W TO 6N33W...AND 5N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 15W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE BAHAMAS...AFFECTING
FLORIDA...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N79W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...TO ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A FEW SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A STATIONARY FRONT IS
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...EXTENDING FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N77W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...TO A
GULF OF MEXICO 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N84W.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO
27N88W AND 28N92W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N92W TO
THE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS NEAR 29N95W...TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG IN
THE NORTH PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE NORTH OF 21N97W 22N90W...BEYOND THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE
WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A BIT OF WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NOTED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.56 IN
GUADALAJARA IN MEXICO...0.53 IN VERACRUZ IN MEXICO...AND 0.38 IN
MERIDA MEXICO...

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...
KMZG...KGVX...KVAF...KVQT...KIKT...KVOA...AND KDLP.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE
IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHERN/COASTAL
SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA...AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...IN SOUTHERN/COASTAL
SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
FROM PERRY WESTWARD...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN IN
THE TAMPA-ST.PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA...IN SARASOTA WITH
RAIN...AND JUST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN PUNTA GORDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 32N63W TO 26N61W 22N58W...ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/
PUERTO RICO...INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 56W AND 59W...
AND FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 61W AND 72W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 555W AND 62W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.25 IN
MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND 10N86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N81W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO A WEAKENING CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW CROSSES
HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-PUERTO RICO-TO-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROUGH WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME...MAINTAINING THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA...WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.20 IN
BERMUDA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 30/1200 UTC...IS 0.73.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 18N53W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 18N53W
CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND
60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N52W 14N55W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO
13N BETWEEN 47W AND 54W...AND FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 51W AND
54W. ISOLATED MODERATE...AND WEAKENING...FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN
46W AND 49W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...TO 15N30W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N13W TO
31N13W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM THE
CANARY ISLANDS TO THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO BETWEEN 14W AND 20W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 44W...RELATED TO A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH THAT
ARE IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ALSO FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W
AND 30W...RELATED TO AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH THAT
ORIGINATE IN THE AREA THAT IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF 32N.


A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N37W TO 28N53W 21N64W...ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...
TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 301804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 10W
AND 20W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N44W 14N46W 7N48W.
THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WAVE...AT THE SOUTHERN END OF
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W...FROM 22N SOUTHWARD...ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 9N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 9N21W TO 6N33W...AND 5N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 15W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE BAHAMAS...AFFECTING
FLORIDA...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N79W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...TO ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A FEW SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A STATIONARY FRONT IS
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...EXTENDING FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N77W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...TO A
GULF OF MEXICO 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N84W.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO
27N88W AND 28N92W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N92W TO
THE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS NEAR 29N95W...TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG IN
THE NORTH PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE NORTH OF 21N97W 22N90W...BEYOND THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE
WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A BIT OF WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NOTED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.56 IN
GUADALAJARA IN MEXICO...0.53 IN VERACRUZ IN MEXICO...AND 0.38 IN
MERIDA MEXICO...

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...
KMZG...KGVX...KVAF...KVQT...KIKT...KVOA...AND KDLP.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE
IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHERN/COASTAL
SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA...AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...IN SOUTHERN/COASTAL
SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
FROM PERRY WESTWARD...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN IN
THE TAMPA-ST.PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA...IN SARASOTA WITH
RAIN...AND JUST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN PUNTA GORDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 32N63W TO 26N61W 22N58W...ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/
PUERTO RICO...INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 56W AND 59W...
AND FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 61W AND 72W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 555W AND 62W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.25 IN
MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND 10N86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N81W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO A WEAKENING CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW CROSSES
HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-PUERTO RICO-TO-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROUGH WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME...MAINTAINING THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA...WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.20 IN
BERMUDA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 30/1200 UTC...IS 0.73.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 18N53W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 18N53W
CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND
60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N52W 14N55W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO
13N BETWEEN 47W AND 54W...AND FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 51W AND
54W. ISOLATED MODERATE...AND WEAKENING...FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN
46W AND 49W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...TO 15N30W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N13W TO
31N13W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM THE
CANARY ISLANDS TO THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO BETWEEN 14W AND 20W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 44W...RELATED TO A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH THAT
ARE IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ALSO FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W
AND 30W...RELATED TO AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH THAT
ORIGINATE IN THE AREA THAT IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF 32N.


A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N37W TO 28N53W 21N64W...ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...
TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 301804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 10W
AND 20W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N44W 14N46W 7N48W.
THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WAVE...AT THE SOUTHERN END OF
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W...FROM 22N SOUTHWARD...ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 9N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 9N21W TO 6N33W...AND 5N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 15W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE BAHAMAS...AFFECTING
FLORIDA...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N79W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...TO ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A FEW SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A STATIONARY FRONT IS
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...EXTENDING FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N77W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...TO A
GULF OF MEXICO 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N84W.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO
27N88W AND 28N92W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N92W TO
THE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS NEAR 29N95W...TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG IN
THE NORTH PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE NORTH OF 21N97W 22N90W...BEYOND THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE
WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A BIT OF WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NOTED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.56 IN
GUADALAJARA IN MEXICO...0.53 IN VERACRUZ IN MEXICO...AND 0.38 IN
MERIDA MEXICO...

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...
KMZG...KGVX...KVAF...KVQT...KIKT...KVOA...AND KDLP.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE
IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHERN/COASTAL
SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA...AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...IN SOUTHERN/COASTAL
SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
FROM PERRY WESTWARD...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN IN
THE TAMPA-ST.PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA...IN SARASOTA WITH
RAIN...AND JUST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN PUNTA GORDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 32N63W TO 26N61W 22N58W...ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/
PUERTO RICO...INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 56W AND 59W...
AND FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 61W AND 72W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 555W AND 62W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.25 IN
MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND 10N86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N81W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO A WEAKENING CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW CROSSES
HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-PUERTO RICO-TO-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROUGH WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME...MAINTAINING THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA...WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.20 IN
BERMUDA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 30/1200 UTC...IS 0.73.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 18N53W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 18N53W
CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND
60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N52W 14N55W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO
13N BETWEEN 47W AND 54W...AND FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 51W AND
54W. ISOLATED MODERATE...AND WEAKENING...FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN
46W AND 49W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...TO 15N30W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N13W TO
31N13W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM THE
CANARY ISLANDS TO THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO BETWEEN 14W AND 20W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 44W...RELATED TO A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH THAT
ARE IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ALSO FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W
AND 30W...RELATED TO AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH THAT
ORIGINATE IN THE AREA THAT IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF 32N.


A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N37W TO 28N53W 21N64W...ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...
TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 301804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 10W
AND 20W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N44W 14N46W 7N48W.
THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WAVE...AT THE SOUTHERN END OF
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W...FROM 22N SOUTHWARD...ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 9N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 9N21W TO 6N33W...AND 5N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 15W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE BAHAMAS...AFFECTING
FLORIDA...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N79W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...TO ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A FEW SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A STATIONARY FRONT IS
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...EXTENDING FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N77W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...TO A
GULF OF MEXICO 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N84W.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO
27N88W AND 28N92W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N92W TO
THE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS NEAR 29N95W...TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG IN
THE NORTH PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE NORTH OF 21N97W 22N90W...BEYOND THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE
WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A BIT OF WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NOTED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.56 IN
GUADALAJARA IN MEXICO...0.53 IN VERACRUZ IN MEXICO...AND 0.38 IN
MERIDA MEXICO...

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...
KMZG...KGVX...KVAF...KVQT...KIKT...KVOA...AND KDLP.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE
IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHERN/COASTAL
SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA...AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...IN SOUTHERN/COASTAL
SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
FROM PERRY WESTWARD...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN IN
THE TAMPA-ST.PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA...IN SARASOTA WITH
RAIN...AND JUST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN PUNTA GORDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 32N63W TO 26N61W 22N58W...ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/
PUERTO RICO...INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 56W AND 59W...
AND FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 61W AND 72W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 555W AND 62W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.25 IN
MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND 10N86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N81W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO A WEAKENING CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW CROSSES
HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-PUERTO RICO-TO-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROUGH WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME...MAINTAINING THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA...WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.20 IN
BERMUDA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 30/1200 UTC...IS 0.73.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 18N53W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 18N53W
CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND
60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N52W 14N55W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO
13N BETWEEN 47W AND 54W...AND FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 51W AND
54W. ISOLATED MODERATE...AND WEAKENING...FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN
46W AND 49W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...TO 15N30W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N13W TO
31N13W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM THE
CANARY ISLANDS TO THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO BETWEEN 14W AND 20W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 44W...RELATED TO A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH THAT
ARE IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ALSO FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W
AND 30W...RELATED TO AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH THAT
ORIGINATE IN THE AREA THAT IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF 32N.


A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N37W TO 28N53W 21N64W...ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...
TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
ACPN50 PHFO 301745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST TUE SEP 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

KODAMA






000
ACPN50 PHFO 301745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST TUE SEP 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

KODAMA





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301734
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT MARTES 30 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301734
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT MARTES 30 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301734
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT MARTES 30 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301734
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT MARTES 30 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA





000
ABNT20 KNHC 301732
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABNT20 KNHC 301732
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301731
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An elongated area of low pressure continues a few hundred
miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Although the shower
activity has changed little in organization during the past several
hours, environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical
depression to form tomorrow or Thursday while the system moves
toward the west-northwest or northwest near 10 mph. Regardless of
tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance will likely produce
locally heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico that could
cause flash flooding and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301731
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An elongated area of low pressure continues a few hundred
miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Although the shower
activity has changed little in organization during the past several
hours, environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical
depression to form tomorrow or Thursday while the system moves
toward the west-northwest or northwest near 10 mph. Regardless of
tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance will likely produce
locally heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico that could
cause flash flooding and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
WTPQ82 PGUM 301549
HLSPQ2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
200 AM CHST WED OCT 1 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE HAS CROSSED THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS AND IS NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY...

.NEW INFORMATION...
THE TYPHOON WATCH FOR PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAGAN...ALAMAGAN
AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WATERS AROUND
GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF SAIPAN.
PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN
EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.1N...LONGITUDE 145.0E...OR ABOUT 140 MILES
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN. THIS WAS ABOUT 245 MILES NORTH OF GUAM
AND ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PAGAN. STORM MOTION WAS WNW AT 18
MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 55 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
PHANFONE HAS CROSSED THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...AND THE
LATEST FORECAST FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER TAKES THE
CENTER OF PHANFONE FARTHER AWAY THROUGH TODAY AND THURSDAY. AS IT
MOVES AWAY...PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON ON WEDNESDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE STILL UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME
TO RUSH TO COMPLETION PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND
PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF
YOUR HOME IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE
PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL
PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ABOUT 8 AM CHST OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PAGAN AND
ALAMAGAN. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH
TODAY ON PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TODAY AS PHANFONE MOVES AWAY.

DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY TO POORLY BUILT STRUCTURES.
MINOR DAMAGE TO BANANA TREES AND NEAR-COASTAL AGRICULTURE IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM SALT SPRAY. SOME SMALL DEAD LIMBS...RIPE
COCONUTS AND DEAD PALM FRONDS MAY BE BLOWN FROM TREES...AND SOME
FRAGILE LEAVES MAY BE BLOWN FROM TREES SUCH AS PAPAYA.

EXPECT SEAS TO 10 TO 15 FEET TODAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
AS PHANFONE PASSES...STRONG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
FROM SAIPAN SOUTHWARD...DRIVING INCREASING SHORT PERIOD SWELLS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. FOR PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN...WIND-GENERATED SURF MAY
CAUSE 1 TO 2 FEET OF COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG EXPOSED SHORELINES.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF SAIPAN.
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE READY
TO ACT IF FLOODING RAINS OCCUR.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH A MOIST
UNSTABLE MONSOON FLOW. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ON
SAIPAN.

$$
POWELL









000
WTPQ82 PGUM 301549
HLSPQ2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
200 AM CHST WED OCT 1 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE HAS CROSSED THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS AND IS NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY...

.NEW INFORMATION...
THE TYPHOON WATCH FOR PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAGAN...ALAMAGAN
AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WATERS AROUND
GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF SAIPAN.
PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN
EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.1N...LONGITUDE 145.0E...OR ABOUT 140 MILES
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN. THIS WAS ABOUT 245 MILES NORTH OF GUAM
AND ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PAGAN. STORM MOTION WAS WNW AT 18
MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 55 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
PHANFONE HAS CROSSED THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...AND THE
LATEST FORECAST FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER TAKES THE
CENTER OF PHANFONE FARTHER AWAY THROUGH TODAY AND THURSDAY. AS IT
MOVES AWAY...PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON ON WEDNESDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE STILL UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME
TO RUSH TO COMPLETION PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND
PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF
YOUR HOME IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE
PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL
PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ABOUT 8 AM CHST OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PAGAN AND
ALAMAGAN. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH
TODAY ON PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TODAY AS PHANFONE MOVES AWAY.

DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY TO POORLY BUILT STRUCTURES.
MINOR DAMAGE TO BANANA TREES AND NEAR-COASTAL AGRICULTURE IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM SALT SPRAY. SOME SMALL DEAD LIMBS...RIPE
COCONUTS AND DEAD PALM FRONDS MAY BE BLOWN FROM TREES...AND SOME
FRAGILE LEAVES MAY BE BLOWN FROM TREES SUCH AS PAPAYA.

EXPECT SEAS TO 10 TO 15 FEET TODAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
AS PHANFONE PASSES...STRONG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
FROM SAIPAN SOUTHWARD...DRIVING INCREASING SHORT PERIOD SWELLS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. FOR PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN...WIND-GENERATED SURF MAY
CAUSE 1 TO 2 FEET OF COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG EXPOSED SHORELINES.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF SAIPAN.
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE READY
TO ACT IF FLOODING RAINS OCCUR.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH A MOIST
UNSTABLE MONSOON FLOW. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ON
SAIPAN.

$$
POWELL









000
WTPQ82 PGUM 301549
HLSPQ2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
200 AM CHST WED OCT 1 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE HAS CROSSED THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS AND IS NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY...

.NEW INFORMATION...
THE TYPHOON WATCH FOR PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAGAN...ALAMAGAN
AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WATERS AROUND
GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF SAIPAN.
PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN
EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.1N...LONGITUDE 145.0E...OR ABOUT 140 MILES
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN. THIS WAS ABOUT 245 MILES NORTH OF GUAM
AND ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PAGAN. STORM MOTION WAS WNW AT 18
MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 55 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
PHANFONE HAS CROSSED THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...AND THE
LATEST FORECAST FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER TAKES THE
CENTER OF PHANFONE FARTHER AWAY THROUGH TODAY AND THURSDAY. AS IT
MOVES AWAY...PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON ON WEDNESDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE STILL UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME
TO RUSH TO COMPLETION PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND
PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF
YOUR HOME IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE
PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL
PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ABOUT 8 AM CHST OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PAGAN AND
ALAMAGAN. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH
TODAY ON PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TODAY AS PHANFONE MOVES AWAY.

DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY TO POORLY BUILT STRUCTURES.
MINOR DAMAGE TO BANANA TREES AND NEAR-COASTAL AGRICULTURE IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM SALT SPRAY. SOME SMALL DEAD LIMBS...RIPE
COCONUTS AND DEAD PALM FRONDS MAY BE BLOWN FROM TREES...AND SOME
FRAGILE LEAVES MAY BE BLOWN FROM TREES SUCH AS PAPAYA.

EXPECT SEAS TO 10 TO 15 FEET TODAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
AS PHANFONE PASSES...STRONG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
FROM SAIPAN SOUTHWARD...DRIVING INCREASING SHORT PERIOD SWELLS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. FOR PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN...WIND-GENERATED SURF MAY
CAUSE 1 TO 2 FEET OF COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG EXPOSED SHORELINES.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF SAIPAN.
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE READY
TO ACT IF FLOODING RAINS OCCUR.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH A MOIST
UNSTABLE MONSOON FLOW. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ON
SAIPAN.

$$
POWELL









000
WTPQ82 PGUM 301549
HLSPQ2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
200 AM CHST WED OCT 1 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE HAS CROSSED THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS AND IS NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY...

.NEW INFORMATION...
THE TYPHOON WATCH FOR PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAGAN...ALAMAGAN
AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WATERS AROUND
GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF SAIPAN.
PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN
EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.1N...LONGITUDE 145.0E...OR ABOUT 140 MILES
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN. THIS WAS ABOUT 245 MILES NORTH OF GUAM
AND ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PAGAN. STORM MOTION WAS WNW AT 18
MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 55 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
PHANFONE HAS CROSSED THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...AND THE
LATEST FORECAST FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER TAKES THE
CENTER OF PHANFONE FARTHER AWAY THROUGH TODAY AND THURSDAY. AS IT
MOVES AWAY...PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON ON WEDNESDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE STILL UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME
TO RUSH TO COMPLETION PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND
PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF
YOUR HOME IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE
PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL
PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ABOUT 8 AM CHST OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PAGAN AND
ALAMAGAN. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH
TODAY ON PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TODAY AS PHANFONE MOVES AWAY.

DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY TO POORLY BUILT STRUCTURES.
MINOR DAMAGE TO BANANA TREES AND NEAR-COASTAL AGRICULTURE IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM SALT SPRAY. SOME SMALL DEAD LIMBS...RIPE
COCONUTS AND DEAD PALM FRONDS MAY BE BLOWN FROM TREES...AND SOME
FRAGILE LEAVES MAY BE BLOWN FROM TREES SUCH AS PAPAYA.

EXPECT SEAS TO 10 TO 15 FEET TODAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
AS PHANFONE PASSES...STRONG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
FROM SAIPAN SOUTHWARD...DRIVING INCREASING SHORT PERIOD SWELLS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. FOR PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN...WIND-GENERATED SURF MAY
CAUSE 1 TO 2 FEET OF COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG EXPOSED SHORELINES.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF SAIPAN.
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE READY
TO ACT IF FLOODING RAINS OCCUR.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH A MOIST
UNSTABLE MONSOON FLOW. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ON
SAIPAN.

$$
POWELL









000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301547
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
RACHEL WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 30/1500 UTC.
AT THIS TIME...IT IS CENTERED NEAR 23.1N 117.5W. THE DEPRESSION
IS NEARLY STATIONARY...AND A VERY SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RACHEL IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. RACHEL HAS LOST ALL ITS DEEP
CONVECTION. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

A 1008 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 15N100W REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH ROUGHLY 125 NM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
THIS IS IN THE AREA WHERE VORTICITY HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY A PAIR
OF TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGES. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED MAINLY WITHIN 90NM SE AND NW QUADRANTS OF
LOW CENTER. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS BROAD
LOW PRES AREA WILL SLOWLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT DRIFTS TO THE WNW PARALLELING THE COAST OF
MEXICO. THE LOW PRES HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO THAT COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
GUATEMALA EXTENDS INTO THE EPAC TO NEAR 11N90W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHERE THE
WAVE AXIS MEETS THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WESTWARD REACHING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON WED.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES LOCATED
NEAR 15N100W TO 12N114W. ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 12N114W TO 12N125W
TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 110W AND 114W.

...DISCUSSION...
MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING SW WIND FLOW S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 115W LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THU IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL LOW PRES FORECAST TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS WEEK. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. EXPECT SW
WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS OF 8-10 FT FROM 09N TO 12N
BETWEEN 98W AND 111W BY WED MORNING...AND FROM 09N TO 14N
BETWEEN 100W AND 110W...AND ALSO FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W
AND 114W BY THU MORNING.

SEAS TO 12 FT ARE STILL NOTED WITHIN 40 NM NW QUADRANT OF RACHEL
LIKELY DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
A RIDGE DOMINATING THE N WATERS MAINLY N OF 15N W OF 122W.

CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR
THE SOUTHERN END OF A TROUGH EXTENDING OVER WESTERN MEXICO. THIS
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N TO 22N E OF 107W TO THE
MEXICAN COAST.

LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
SWELL EVENT WILL COMBINE WITH SW WIND WAVES GENERATED SOUTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...RAISING SEAS TO 9 FT S
OF A LINE S OF A LINE FROM 03.4N90W TO 12N100W TO 12N120W TO
00N135W BY WED MORNING.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301547
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
RACHEL WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 30/1500 UTC.
AT THIS TIME...IT IS CENTERED NEAR 23.1N 117.5W. THE DEPRESSION
IS NEARLY STATIONARY...AND A VERY SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RACHEL IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. RACHEL HAS LOST ALL ITS DEEP
CONVECTION. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

A 1008 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 15N100W REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH ROUGHLY 125 NM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
THIS IS IN THE AREA WHERE VORTICITY HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY A PAIR
OF TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGES. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED MAINLY WITHIN 90NM SE AND NW QUADRANTS OF
LOW CENTER. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS BROAD
LOW PRES AREA WILL SLOWLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT DRIFTS TO THE WNW PARALLELING THE COAST OF
MEXICO. THE LOW PRES HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO THAT COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
GUATEMALA EXTENDS INTO THE EPAC TO NEAR 11N90W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHERE THE
WAVE AXIS MEETS THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WESTWARD REACHING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON WED.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES LOCATED
NEAR 15N100W TO 12N114W. ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 12N114W TO 12N125W
TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 110W AND 114W.

...DISCUSSION...
MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING SW WIND FLOW S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 115W LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THU IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL LOW PRES FORECAST TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS WEEK. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. EXPECT SW
WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS OF 8-10 FT FROM 09N TO 12N
BETWEEN 98W AND 111W BY WED MORNING...AND FROM 09N TO 14N
BETWEEN 100W AND 110W...AND ALSO FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W
AND 114W BY THU MORNING.

SEAS TO 12 FT ARE STILL NOTED WITHIN 40 NM NW QUADRANT OF RACHEL
LIKELY DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
A RIDGE DOMINATING THE N WATERS MAINLY N OF 15N W OF 122W.

CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR
THE SOUTHERN END OF A TROUGH EXTENDING OVER WESTERN MEXICO. THIS
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N TO 22N E OF 107W TO THE
MEXICAN COAST.

LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
SWELL EVENT WILL COMBINE WITH SW WIND WAVES GENERATED SOUTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...RAISING SEAS TO 9 FT S
OF A LINE S OF A LINE FROM 03.4N90W TO 12N100W TO 12N120W TO
00N135W BY WED MORNING.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301547
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
RACHEL WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 30/1500 UTC.
AT THIS TIME...IT IS CENTERED NEAR 23.1N 117.5W. THE DEPRESSION
IS NEARLY STATIONARY...AND A VERY SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RACHEL IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. RACHEL HAS LOST ALL ITS DEEP
CONVECTION. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

A 1008 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 15N100W REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH ROUGHLY 125 NM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
THIS IS IN THE AREA WHERE VORTICITY HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY A PAIR
OF TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGES. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED MAINLY WITHIN 90NM SE AND NW QUADRANTS OF
LOW CENTER. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS BROAD
LOW PRES AREA WILL SLOWLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT DRIFTS TO THE WNW PARALLELING THE COAST OF
MEXICO. THE LOW PRES HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO THAT COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
GUATEMALA EXTENDS INTO THE EPAC TO NEAR 11N90W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHERE THE
WAVE AXIS MEETS THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WESTWARD REACHING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON WED.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES LOCATED
NEAR 15N100W TO 12N114W. ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 12N114W TO 12N125W
TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 110W AND 114W.

...DISCUSSION...
MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING SW WIND FLOW S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 115W LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THU IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL LOW PRES FORECAST TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS WEEK. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. EXPECT SW
WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS OF 8-10 FT FROM 09N TO 12N
BETWEEN 98W AND 111W BY WED MORNING...AND FROM 09N TO 14N
BETWEEN 100W AND 110W...AND ALSO FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W
AND 114W BY THU MORNING.

SEAS TO 12 FT ARE STILL NOTED WITHIN 40 NM NW QUADRANT OF RACHEL
LIKELY DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
A RIDGE DOMINATING THE N WATERS MAINLY N OF 15N W OF 122W.

CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR
THE SOUTHERN END OF A TROUGH EXTENDING OVER WESTERN MEXICO. THIS
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N TO 22N E OF 107W TO THE
MEXICAN COAST.

LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
SWELL EVENT WILL COMBINE WITH SW WIND WAVES GENERATED SOUTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...RAISING SEAS TO 9 FT S
OF A LINE S OF A LINE FROM 03.4N90W TO 12N100W TO 12N120W TO
00N135W BY WED MORNING.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301547
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
RACHEL WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 30/1500 UTC.
AT THIS TIME...IT IS CENTERED NEAR 23.1N 117.5W. THE DEPRESSION
IS NEARLY STATIONARY...AND A VERY SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RACHEL IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. RACHEL HAS LOST ALL ITS DEEP
CONVECTION. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

A 1008 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 15N100W REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH ROUGHLY 125 NM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
THIS IS IN THE AREA WHERE VORTICITY HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY A PAIR
OF TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGES. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED MAINLY WITHIN 90NM SE AND NW QUADRANTS OF
LOW CENTER. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS BROAD
LOW PRES AREA WILL SLOWLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT DRIFTS TO THE WNW PARALLELING THE COAST OF
MEXICO. THE LOW PRES HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO THAT COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
GUATEMALA EXTENDS INTO THE EPAC TO NEAR 11N90W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHERE THE
WAVE AXIS MEETS THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WESTWARD REACHING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON WED.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES LOCATED
NEAR 15N100W TO 12N114W. ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 12N114W TO 12N125W
TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 110W AND 114W.

...DISCUSSION...
MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING SW WIND FLOW S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 115W LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THU IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL LOW PRES FORECAST TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS WEEK. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. EXPECT SW
WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS OF 8-10 FT FROM 09N TO 12N
BETWEEN 98W AND 111W BY WED MORNING...AND FROM 09N TO 14N
BETWEEN 100W AND 110W...AND ALSO FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W
AND 114W BY THU MORNING.

SEAS TO 12 FT ARE STILL NOTED WITHIN 40 NM NW QUADRANT OF RACHEL
LIKELY DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
A RIDGE DOMINATING THE N WATERS MAINLY N OF 15N W OF 122W.

CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR
THE SOUTHERN END OF A TROUGH EXTENDING OVER WESTERN MEXICO. THIS
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N TO 22N E OF 107W TO THE
MEXICAN COAST.

LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
SWELL EVENT WILL COMBINE WITH SW WIND WAVES GENERATED SOUTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...RAISING SEAS TO 9 FT S
OF A LINE S OF A LINE FROM 03.4N90W TO 12N100W TO 12N120W TO
00N135W BY WED MORNING.

$$
GR



000
WTPQ32 PGUM 301506
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM CHST WED OCT 1 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE HAS CROSSED THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS AND IS NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TYPHOON WATCH FOR PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHANFONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 145.0E
ABOUT 140 MILES NNW OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 200 MILES N OF ROTA
ABOUT 245 MILES N OF GUAM
ABOUT  85 MILES SW OF PAGAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW...285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 145.0 EAST.
PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. PHANFONE HAS PASSED OVER THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND IS BEGINNING
TO MOVE AWAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 MPH. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TYPHOON LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES SOUTHWEST
THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND UP TO 100 MILES ELSEWHERE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM CHST WEDNESDAY.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM CHST WEDNESDAY.

$$

POWELL









000
WTPQ32 PGUM 301506
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM CHST WED OCT 1 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE HAS CROSSED THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS AND IS NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TYPHOON WATCH FOR PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHANFONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 145.0E
ABOUT 140 MILES NNW OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 200 MILES N OF ROTA
ABOUT 245 MILES N OF GUAM
ABOUT  85 MILES SW OF PAGAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW...285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 145.0 EAST.
PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. PHANFONE HAS PASSED OVER THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND IS BEGINNING
TO MOVE AWAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 MPH. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TYPHOON LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES SOUTHWEST
THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND UP TO 100 MILES ELSEWHERE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM CHST WEDNESDAY.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM CHST WEDNESDAY.

$$

POWELL










000
WTPZ33 KNHC 301450
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...RACHEL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 117.5W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RACHEL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS NEARLY STATIONARY...AND A VERY SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND RACHEL IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER
TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/RAMOS



000
WTPZ33 KNHC 301450
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...RACHEL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 117.5W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RACHEL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS NEARLY STATIONARY...AND A VERY SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND RACHEL IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER
TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/RAMOS




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 301449
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
1500 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 117.5W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 117.5W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 117.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.0N 117.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 22.9N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.7N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 22.5N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 117.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/RAMOS




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 301449
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
1500 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 117.5W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 117.5W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 117.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.0N 117.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 22.9N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.7N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 22.5N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 117.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/RAMOS





000
WTPQ32 PGUM 301245
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1100 PM CHST TUE SEP 30 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE BEGINNING TO CROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS...INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHANFONE.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 146.0E
ABOUT 120 MILES N OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 195 MILES NNE OF ROTA
ABOUT 245 MILES NNE OF GUAM
ABOUT  85 MILES S OF PAGAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW...320 DEGREES AT 19 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 146.0 EAST.
PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND 19 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. PHANFONE IS BEGINNING TO PASS OVER THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TYPHOON ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM CHST WEDNESDAY.
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM CHST WEDNESDAY.

$$

POWELL








000
WTPQ32 PGUM 301245
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1100 PM CHST TUE SEP 30 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE BEGINNING TO CROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS...INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHANFONE.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 146.0E
ABOUT 120 MILES N OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 195 MILES NNE OF ROTA
ABOUT 245 MILES NNE OF GUAM
ABOUT  85 MILES S OF PAGAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW...320 DEGREES AT 19 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 146.0 EAST.
PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND 19 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. PHANFONE IS BEGINNING TO PASS OVER THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TYPHOON ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM CHST WEDNESDAY.
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM CHST WEDNESDAY.

$$

POWELL









000
AXNT20 KNHC 301154
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDS ALONG 19W/20W
FROM 4N-13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
NARROW SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS
SUPPRESSING THE WAVE TO THE SOUTH AND LIMITING CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 19N42W TO
7N46W MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE N OF 12N AND FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 45W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N88W OVER THE
YUCATAN ALONG 16N88W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W 15-20 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT MOISTURE
THAT COVERS THE YUCATAN AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 17N W OF 86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 15N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 14N20W 7N28W TO 5N40W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N49W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
4N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOTS THE AREA FROM 4N-8N
BETWEEN 24W-34W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N50W TO 16N52W
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 18N-20N
BETWEEN 49W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 25N94W COVERING
THE AREA N OF 21N W OF 87W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM THE MID-ATLC STATES TO OVER NE
FLORIDA. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER
FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE INTO THE GULF NEAR 29N83W TO A 1009 MB
LOW NEAR 29N85W WHERE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES ALONG 27N87W TO
27N89W WHERE IT AGAIN BECOMES STATIONARY TO 27N95W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N E OF
86W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N E OF 94W AND S OF 22N W
OF 94W. THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-28N. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE S GULF
EXITING WED. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT E EXTENDING ALONG
27N E OF 87W BY WED BEFORE MOVING E OF THE AREA THU. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF WED AND THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO THEN
SW ALONG 15N72W THEN W TO NICARAGUA/HONDURAS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 79W-83W.
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA
RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND
AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COSTA RICA AND S NICARAGUA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO THEN
INTO THE CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FURTHER E GIVING THE
ISLAND MORE NE FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT HEAVY
RAIN...BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA
AND THE W ATLC W OF 70W. BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE IS A REMNANT
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N79W THROUGH A WEAK NEWLY
DEVELOPED 1009 MB LOW NEAR 31N80W CONTINUING OVER FLORIDA NEAR
JACKSONVILLE AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN THIS UPPER RIDGE AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE E IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-30N
BETWEEN 73W-78W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC WITH A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW JUST NW OF BERMUDA. SCATTERED TO
HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM 25N72W TO 24N62W TO 27N54W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 28N58W TO BEYOND
32N61W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF
20N E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 28N37W. THE 1009 MB
LOW NEAR 31N80W WILL MOVE E OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH
LATE TUE BEFORE MOVING N OF THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW NEAR 31N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT
THEN FROM 31N69W TO 27N77W TO HOBE SOUND FLORIDA WED NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING FROM 30N65W TO THE N BAHAMAS THU NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 301154
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDS ALONG 19W/20W
FROM 4N-13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
NARROW SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS
SUPPRESSING THE WAVE TO THE SOUTH AND LIMITING CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 19N42W TO
7N46W MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE N OF 12N AND FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 45W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N88W OVER THE
YUCATAN ALONG 16N88W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W 15-20 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT MOISTURE
THAT COVERS THE YUCATAN AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 17N W OF 86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 15N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 14N20W 7N28W TO 5N40W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N49W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
4N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOTS THE AREA FROM 4N-8N
BETWEEN 24W-34W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N50W TO 16N52W
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 18N-20N
BETWEEN 49W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 25N94W COVERING
THE AREA N OF 21N W OF 87W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM THE MID-ATLC STATES TO OVER NE
FLORIDA. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER
FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE INTO THE GULF NEAR 29N83W TO A 1009 MB
LOW NEAR 29N85W WHERE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES ALONG 27N87W TO
27N89W WHERE IT AGAIN BECOMES STATIONARY TO 27N95W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N E OF
86W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N E OF 94W AND S OF 22N W
OF 94W. THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-28N. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE S GULF
EXITING WED. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT E EXTENDING ALONG
27N E OF 87W BY WED BEFORE MOVING E OF THE AREA THU. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF WED AND THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO THEN
SW ALONG 15N72W THEN W TO NICARAGUA/HONDURAS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 79W-83W.
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA
RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND
AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COSTA RICA AND S NICARAGUA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO THEN
INTO THE CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FURTHER E GIVING THE
ISLAND MORE NE FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT HEAVY
RAIN...BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA
AND THE W ATLC W OF 70W. BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE IS A REMNANT
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N79W THROUGH A WEAK NEWLY
DEVELOPED 1009 MB LOW NEAR 31N80W CONTINUING OVER FLORIDA NEAR
JACKSONVILLE AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN THIS UPPER RIDGE AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE E IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-30N
BETWEEN 73W-78W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC WITH A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW JUST NW OF BERMUDA. SCATTERED TO
HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM 25N72W TO 24N62W TO 27N54W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 28N58W TO BEYOND
32N61W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF
20N E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 28N37W. THE 1009 MB
LOW NEAR 31N80W WILL MOVE E OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH
LATE TUE BEFORE MOVING N OF THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW NEAR 31N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT
THEN FROM 31N69W TO 27N77W TO HOBE SOUND FLORIDA WED NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING FROM 30N65W TO THE N BAHAMAS THU NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 301154
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDS ALONG 19W/20W
FROM 4N-13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
NARROW SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS
SUPPRESSING THE WAVE TO THE SOUTH AND LIMITING CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 19N42W TO
7N46W MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE N OF 12N AND FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 45W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N88W OVER THE
YUCATAN ALONG 16N88W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W 15-20 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT MOISTURE
THAT COVERS THE YUCATAN AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 17N W OF 86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 15N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 14N20W 7N28W TO 5N40W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N49W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
4N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOTS THE AREA FROM 4N-8N
BETWEEN 24W-34W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N50W TO 16N52W
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 18N-20N
BETWEEN 49W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 25N94W COVERING
THE AREA N OF 21N W OF 87W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM THE MID-ATLC STATES TO OVER NE
FLORIDA. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER
FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE INTO THE GULF NEAR 29N83W TO A 1009 MB
LOW NEAR 29N85W WHERE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES ALONG 27N87W TO
27N89W WHERE IT AGAIN BECOMES STATIONARY TO 27N95W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N E OF
86W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N E OF 94W AND S OF 22N W
OF 94W. THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-28N. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE S GULF
EXITING WED. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT E EXTENDING ALONG
27N E OF 87W BY WED BEFORE MOVING E OF THE AREA THU. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF WED AND THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO THEN
SW ALONG 15N72W THEN W TO NICARAGUA/HONDURAS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 79W-83W.
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA
RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND
AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COSTA RICA AND S NICARAGUA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO THEN
INTO THE CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FURTHER E GIVING THE
ISLAND MORE NE FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT HEAVY
RAIN...BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA
AND THE W ATLC W OF 70W. BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE IS A REMNANT
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N79W THROUGH A WEAK NEWLY
DEVELOPED 1009 MB LOW NEAR 31N80W CONTINUING OVER FLORIDA NEAR
JACKSONVILLE AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN THIS UPPER RIDGE AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE E IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-30N
BETWEEN 73W-78W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC WITH A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW JUST NW OF BERMUDA. SCATTERED TO
HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM 25N72W TO 24N62W TO 27N54W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 28N58W TO BEYOND
32N61W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF
20N E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 28N37W. THE 1009 MB
LOW NEAR 31N80W WILL MOVE E OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH
LATE TUE BEFORE MOVING N OF THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW NEAR 31N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT
THEN FROM 31N69W TO 27N77W TO HOBE SOUND FLORIDA WED NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING FROM 30N65W TO THE N BAHAMAS THU NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 301154
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDS ALONG 19W/20W
FROM 4N-13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
NARROW SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS
SUPPRESSING THE WAVE TO THE SOUTH AND LIMITING CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 19N42W TO
7N46W MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE N OF 12N AND FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 45W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N88W OVER THE
YUCATAN ALONG 16N88W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W 15-20 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT MOISTURE
THAT COVERS THE YUCATAN AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 17N W OF 86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 15N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 14N20W 7N28W TO 5N40W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N49W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
4N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOTS THE AREA FROM 4N-8N
BETWEEN 24W-34W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N50W TO 16N52W
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 18N-20N
BETWEEN 49W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 25N94W COVERING
THE AREA N OF 21N W OF 87W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM THE MID-ATLC STATES TO OVER NE
FLORIDA. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER
FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE INTO THE GULF NEAR 29N83W TO A 1009 MB
LOW NEAR 29N85W WHERE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES ALONG 27N87W TO
27N89W WHERE IT AGAIN BECOMES STATIONARY TO 27N95W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N E OF
86W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N E OF 94W AND S OF 22N W
OF 94W. THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-28N. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE S GULF
EXITING WED. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT E EXTENDING ALONG
27N E OF 87W BY WED BEFORE MOVING E OF THE AREA THU. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF WED AND THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO THEN
SW ALONG 15N72W THEN W TO NICARAGUA/HONDURAS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 79W-83W.
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA
RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND
AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COSTA RICA AND S NICARAGUA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO THEN
INTO THE CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FURTHER E GIVING THE
ISLAND MORE NE FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT HEAVY
RAIN...BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA
AND THE W ATLC W OF 70W. BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE IS A REMNANT
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N79W THROUGH A WEAK NEWLY
DEVELOPED 1009 MB LOW NEAR 31N80W CONTINUING OVER FLORIDA NEAR
JACKSONVILLE AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN THIS UPPER RIDGE AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE E IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-30N
BETWEEN 73W-78W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC WITH A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW JUST NW OF BERMUDA. SCATTERED TO
HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM 25N72W TO 24N62W TO 27N54W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 28N58W TO BEYOND
32N61W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF
20N E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 28N37W. THE 1009 MB
LOW NEAR 31N80W WILL MOVE E OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH
LATE TUE BEFORE MOVING N OF THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW NEAR 31N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT
THEN FROM 31N69W TO 27N77W TO HOBE SOUND FLORIDA WED NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING FROM 30N65W TO THE N BAHAMAS THU NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301142
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT MARTES 30 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADA CON UN AREA DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADA A UN POCO MAS DE 100 MILLAS AL NOROESTE DE BERMUDA ES
MINIMA Y NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO. LA BAJA PRESION DEBE MOVERSE
GENERALMENTE HACIA EL NORTE Y LUEGO AL NORTE-NORESTE DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS DOS DIAS.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...0 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...0 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301142
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT MARTES 30 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADA CON UN AREA DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADA A UN POCO MAS DE 100 MILLAS AL NOROESTE DE BERMUDA ES
MINIMA Y NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO. LA BAJA PRESION DEBE MOVERSE
GENERALMENTE HACIA EL NORTE Y LUEGO AL NORTE-NORESTE DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS DOS DIAS.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...0 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...0 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301136
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

An elongated area of low pressure continues a few hundred
miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Although the shower activity has
changed little in organization during the past several hours,
environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression
to form later this week while the system moves toward the
west-northwest or northwest near 10 mph.  Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, this disturbance will likely produce locally
heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico that could cause flash
flooding and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301136
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

An elongated area of low pressure continues a few hundred
miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Although the shower activity has
changed little in organization during the past several hours,
environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression
to form later this week while the system moves toward the
west-northwest or northwest near 10 mph.  Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, this disturbance will likely produce locally
heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico that could cause flash
flooding and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
ABNT20 KNHC 301135
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a weak low pressure area located a
little more than 100 miles northwest of Bermuda is minimal and
development is not expected. The low should move toward the north
and then north-northeast over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
ABNT20 KNHC 301135
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a weak low pressure area located a
little more than 100 miles northwest of Bermuda is minimal and
development is not expected. The low should move toward the north
and then north-northeast over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
ABNT20 KNHC 301135
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a weak low pressure area located a
little more than 100 miles northwest of Bermuda is minimal and
development is not expected. The low should move toward the north
and then north-northeast over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
ABNT20 KNHC 301135
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a weak low pressure area located a
little more than 100 miles northwest of Bermuda is minimal and
development is not expected. The low should move toward the north
and then north-northeast over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
ACPN50 PHFO 301130
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST TUE SEP 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

$$

RYSHKO





000
ACPN50 PHFO 301130
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST TUE SEP 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

$$

RYSHKO





000
ACPN50 PHFO 301130
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST TUE SEP 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

$$

RYSHKO





000
ACPN50 PHFO 301130
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST TUE SEP 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

$$

RYSHKO





000
WTPQ32 PGUM 300948
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM CHST TUE SEP 30 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE CONTINUES TRACKING TOWARD THE FAR
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN IS CANCELLED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS...INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHANFONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 146.4E
ABOUT 115 MILES NNE OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 200 MILES NNE OF ROTA
ABOUT 240 MILES NNE OF GUAM
ABOUT 100 MILES SSE OF PAGAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW...320 DEGREES AT 19 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 146.4 EAST.
PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND 19 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TYPHOON ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM CHST THIS EVENING.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM CHST WEDNESDAY.

$$

POWELL







000
WTPQ32 PGUM 300948
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM CHST TUE SEP 30 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE CONTINUES TRACKING TOWARD THE FAR
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN IS CANCELLED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS...INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHANFONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 146.4E
ABOUT 115 MILES NNE OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 200 MILES NNE OF ROTA
ABOUT 240 MILES NNE OF GUAM
ABOUT 100 MILES SSE OF PAGAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW...320 DEGREES AT 19 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 146.4 EAST.
PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND 19 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TYPHOON ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM CHST THIS EVENING.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM CHST WEDNESDAY.

$$

POWELL








000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300915
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL NEARLY STATIONARY LOCATED NEAR 23.3N
117.5W 1005 MB AT 0900 UTC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS
45 KT. STEADY WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH RACHEL
EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
SLOWLY DRIFTS WEST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM
N SEMICIRCLE. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 13N97W REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH ROUGHLY 300 NM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THIS IS IN
THE AREA WHERE A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES HAVE ACCUMULATED OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ENHANCING VORTICITY ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FLARING WITHIN 150 NM OF
THE LOW CENTER. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS
BROAD LOW PRES WILL SLOWLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT DRIFTS TO THE WNW PARALLELING THE COAST OF
MEXICO. THE LOW PRES HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 13N92W TO LOW PRES
1007 MB NEAR 13N97W TO 12N109W TO 14N115W TO 13N130W. ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 13N130W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BETWEEN 85W AND 107W.

...DISCUSSION...
MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING FRESH SW WIND FLOW S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 115W LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THU IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
NEAR 16N102W. SW WIND WAVES WILL ADD TO 6-8 FT SEAS ALREADY IN
PLACE FROM CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL AND BUILD SEAS TO 8-10 FT
FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 98W AND 117W...AND ALSO N OF 13N BETWEEN
98W AND 103W.

$$
MUNDELL



000
WTPZ33 KNHC 300832
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...RACHEL BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 117.5W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST.  RACHEL IS
STATIONARY...AND A VERY SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RACHEL IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
LATE TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



000
WTPZ23 KNHC 300831
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
0900 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 117.5W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 117.5W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 117.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.2N 117.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.1N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 23.0N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 22.8N 118.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 22.8N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 117.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 300831
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
0900 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 117.5W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 117.5W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 117.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.2N 117.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.1N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 23.0N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 22.8N 118.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 22.8N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 117.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH





000
WTPQ32 PGUM 300653
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
500 PM CHST TUE SEP 30 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE CONTINUES TRACKING TOWARD THE FAR
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN...
PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS...INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHANFONE.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 147.2E
ABOUT 130 MILES NE OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 210 MILES NE OF ROTA
ABOUT 260 MILES NE OF GUAM
ABOUT 140 MILES SE OF PAGAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW...305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 147.2 EAST.
PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND 16 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TYPHOON ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM CHST THIS EVENING.
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM CHST THIS EVENING.

$$

POWELL







000
WTPQ32 PGUM 300653
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
500 PM CHST TUE SEP 30 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE CONTINUES TRACKING TOWARD THE FAR
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN...
PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS...INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHANFONE.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 147.2E
ABOUT 130 MILES NE OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 210 MILES NE OF ROTA
ABOUT 260 MILES NE OF GUAM
ABOUT 140 MILES SE OF PAGAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW...305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 147.2 EAST.
PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND 16 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TYPHOON ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM CHST THIS EVENING.
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM CHST THIS EVENING.

$$

POWELL






000
ACCA62 TJSJ 300540
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT MARTES 30 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA JUSTO AL NOROESTE DE BERMUDA ESTA
PRODUCIENDO UNOS CUANTOS AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVA
HACIA EL NORTE. NO SE ANTICIPA DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO DE ESTE
SISTEMA DEBIDO AL AUMENTO EN LOS VIENTOS FUERTES DE LOS NIVELES
ALTOS. LA BAJA PRESION DEBE MOVERSE GENERALMENTE DESDE EL NORTE
HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS A UNA VELOCIDAD
MAYOR DE TRASLACION...Y TODAVIA ESTE SISTEMA PUEDE PRODUCIR LLUVIAS
LOCALMENTE FUERTES Y RAFAGAS DE VIENTO FUERTES SOBRE BERMUDA DURANTE
EL DIA.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 300540
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT MARTES 30 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA JUSTO AL NOROESTE DE BERMUDA ESTA
PRODUCIENDO UNOS CUANTOS AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVA
HACIA EL NORTE. NO SE ANTICIPA DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO DE ESTE
SISTEMA DEBIDO AL AUMENTO EN LOS VIENTOS FUERTES DE LOS NIVELES
ALTOS. LA BAJA PRESION DEBE MOVERSE GENERALMENTE DESDE EL NORTE
HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS A UNA VELOCIDAD
MAYOR DE TRASLACION...Y TODAVIA ESTE SISTEMA PUEDE PRODUCIR LLUVIAS
LOCALMENTE FUERTES Y RAFAGAS DE VIENTO FUERTES SOBRE BERMUDA DURANTE
EL DIA.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 300540
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT MARTES 30 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA JUSTO AL NOROESTE DE BERMUDA ESTA
PRODUCIENDO UNOS CUANTOS AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVA
HACIA EL NORTE. NO SE ANTICIPA DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO DE ESTE
SISTEMA DEBIDO AL AUMENTO EN LOS VIENTOS FUERTES DE LOS NIVELES
ALTOS. LA BAJA PRESION DEBE MOVERSE GENERALMENTE DESDE EL NORTE
HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS A UNA VELOCIDAD
MAYOR DE TRASLACION...Y TODAVIA ESTE SISTEMA PUEDE PRODUCIR LLUVIAS
LOCALMENTE FUERTES Y RAFAGAS DE VIENTO FUERTES SOBRE BERMUDA DURANTE
EL DIA.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 300540
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT MARTES 30 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA JUSTO AL NOROESTE DE BERMUDA ESTA
PRODUCIENDO UNOS CUANTOS AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVA
HACIA EL NORTE. NO SE ANTICIPA DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO DE ESTE
SISTEMA DEBIDO AL AUMENTO EN LOS VIENTOS FUERTES DE LOS NIVELES
ALTOS. LA BAJA PRESION DEBE MOVERSE GENERALMENTE DESDE EL NORTE
HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS A UNA VELOCIDAD
MAYOR DE TRASLACION...Y TODAVIA ESTE SISTEMA PUEDE PRODUCIR LLUVIAS
LOCALMENTE FUERTES Y RAFAGAS DE VIENTO FUERTES SOBRE BERMUDA DURANTE
EL DIA.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH




000
AXNT20 KNHC 300535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA IS ANALYZED FROM
17N18W TO 6N20W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH
WILL BE LIMITING CONVECTION TO S OF 12N. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE S OF 11N BETWEEN 18W-20W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 18N41W TO
9N45W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 43W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 86W S OF 22N TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. WAVE IS MOVING OUT OF AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT
COVERS MOST OF THE W CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
PUERTO RICO TO NICARAGUA/HONDURAS WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 13N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N19W TO 5N27W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N31W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
8N42W THEN RESUMES NEAR 7N47W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOTS THE AREA FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN
21W-34W AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 46W-52W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 18N49W TO 14N51W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 48W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 26N95W COVERING
THE AREA N OF 21N W OF 88W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE MID-ATLC STATES TO THE NE GULF NEAR 28N85W. A REMNANT
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE N GULF EXTENDING FROM NE
FLORIDA NEAR SAINT AUGUSTINE INTO THE GULF NEAR 29N83W TO A 1009
MB LOW NEAR 29N86W CONTINUING 27N88W TO 26N96W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 29N E OF
89W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO BETWEEN TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ. THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL GULF IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-26N. THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 23N BEFORE EXITING WED. THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL BECOME A COLD FRONT AS THE LOW MOVES E-NE
AND WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA ON WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO THEN
SW ALONG 16N70W THEN W TO NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA OVER PANAMA S OF THE SW CARIBBEAN
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 30
NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 17N-20N
BETWEEN 78W-83W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR
SKIES TONIGHT. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W OF THE BASIN EARLY
TUE. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH THE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATED. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO THEN INTO THE CARIBBEAN IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT FURTHER E GIVING THE ISLAND MORE NE FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT HEAVY RAIN...BUT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH
THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA
AND THE W ATLC W OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW N OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N64W AND A
1008 MB SURFACE LOW JUST W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N66W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 60W-65W AND N OF
31N BETWEEN 58W-65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 55W-67W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB
HIGH NEAR 29N23W. GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE
FAR NW WATERS EARLY TUE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE
LOW WILL MOVE E OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH LATE TUE
BEFORE MOVING N OF THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM THE LOW NEAR 31N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TUE NIGHT.
AND FROM 30N65W TO THE N BAHAMAS BY THU NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 300535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA IS ANALYZED FROM
17N18W TO 6N20W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH
WILL BE LIMITING CONVECTION TO S OF 12N. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE S OF 11N BETWEEN 18W-20W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 18N41W TO
9N45W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 43W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 86W S OF 22N TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. WAVE IS MOVING OUT OF AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT
COVERS MOST OF THE W CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
PUERTO RICO TO NICARAGUA/HONDURAS WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 13N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N19W TO 5N27W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N31W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
8N42W THEN RESUMES NEAR 7N47W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOTS THE AREA FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN
21W-34W AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 46W-52W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 18N49W TO 14N51W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 48W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 26N95W COVERING
THE AREA N OF 21N W OF 88W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE MID-ATLC STATES TO THE NE GULF NEAR 28N85W. A REMNANT
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE N GULF EXTENDING FROM NE
FLORIDA NEAR SAINT AUGUSTINE INTO THE GULF NEAR 29N83W TO A 1009
MB LOW NEAR 29N86W CONTINUING 27N88W TO 26N96W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 29N E OF
89W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO BETWEEN TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ. THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL GULF IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-26N. THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 23N BEFORE EXITING WED. THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL BECOME A COLD FRONT AS THE LOW MOVES E-NE
AND WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA ON WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO THEN
SW ALONG 16N70W THEN W TO NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA OVER PANAMA S OF THE SW CARIBBEAN
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 30
NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 17N-20N
BETWEEN 78W-83W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR
SKIES TONIGHT. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W OF THE BASIN EARLY
TUE. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH THE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATED. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO THEN INTO THE CARIBBEAN IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT FURTHER E GIVING THE ISLAND MORE NE FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT HEAVY RAIN...BUT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH
THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA
AND THE W ATLC W OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW N OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N64W AND A
1008 MB SURFACE LOW JUST W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N66W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 60W-65W AND N OF
31N BETWEEN 58W-65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 55W-67W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB
HIGH NEAR 29N23W. GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE
FAR NW WATERS EARLY TUE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE
LOW WILL MOVE E OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH LATE TUE
BEFORE MOVING N OF THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM THE LOW NEAR 31N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TUE NIGHT.
AND FROM 30N65W TO THE N BAHAMAS BY THU NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 300533
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are expected to
gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form later this week while the system moves
west-northwestward or northwestward near 10 mph.  Regardless of
tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance should produce locally
heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico that could cause flash
flooding and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 300533
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are expected to
gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form later this week while the system moves
west-northwestward or northwestward near 10 mph.  Regardless of
tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance should produce locally
heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico that could cause flash
flooding and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 300533
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are expected to
gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form later this week while the system moves
west-northwestward or northwestward near 10 mph.  Regardless of
tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance should produce locally
heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico that could cause flash
flooding and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 300533
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are expected to
gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form later this week while the system moves
west-northwestward or northwestward near 10 mph.  Regardless of
tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance should produce locally
heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico that could cause flash
flooding and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ACPN50 PHFO 300530
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST MON SEP 29 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

$$

RYSHKO





000
ACPN50 PHFO 300530
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST MON SEP 29 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

$$

RYSHKO




000
ABNT20 KNHC 300519
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure area located just to the northwest of Bermuda is
producing a few showers and thunderstorms while it moves slowly
northward.  Significant development of this system is not
anticipated due to increasingly strong upper-level winds.  The low
should move northward to north-northeastward at a faster
forward speed over the next couple of days, and could still
produce locally heavy rains and gusty winds across Bermuda this
morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABNT20 KNHC 300519
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure area located just to the northwest of Bermuda is
producing a few showers and thunderstorms while it moves slowly
northward.  Significant development of this system is not
anticipated due to increasingly strong upper-level winds.  The low
should move northward to north-northeastward at a faster
forward speed over the next couple of days, and could still
produce locally heavy rains and gusty winds across Bermuda this
morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
WTPQ32 PGUM 300322
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM CHST TUE SEP 30 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE TRACKING TOWARD THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN...
PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS...INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHANFONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 147.8E
ABOUT 150 MILES ENE OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 200 MILES NE OF ROTA
ABOUT 250 MILES NE OF GUAM
ABOUT 210 MILES SE OF PAGAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW...305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 147.8 EAST.
PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 16 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TYPHOON ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM CHST THIS EVENING.

$$

BIRCHARD




000
WTPQ32 PGUM 300322
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM CHST TUE SEP 30 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE TRACKING TOWARD THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN...
PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS...INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHANFONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 147.8E
ABOUT 150 MILES ENE OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 200 MILES NE OF ROTA
ABOUT 250 MILES NE OF GUAM
ABOUT 210 MILES SE OF PAGAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW...305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 147.8 EAST.
PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 16 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TYPHOON ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM CHST THIS EVENING.

$$

BIRCHARD





000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300251
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 23.3N 117.5W AT 30/0300
UTC SEP 2014 MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRES IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH
GUSTS 50 KT. STEADY WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND RACHEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON
TUESDAY AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS WEST. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE. SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

1007 MB LOW PRES CONTINUES BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N97W APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SE OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO. THIS IS IN THE AREA WHERE A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES HAVE
ACCUMULATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ENHANCING THE CYCLONIC
TURNING ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. AN EARLIER ASCAT SATELLITE
PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO
NEAR PUERTO ANGEL TO THE NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRES...CORROBORATED BY A REPORT OF 25 KT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
AT NEARBY PUERTO ESCONDIDO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FLARING WITHIN 150 NM N AND 240 NM S OF THE
LOW PRES. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS BROAD LOW
PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT DRIFTS TO THE WNW PARALLELING THE COAST OF
MEXICO. THE LOW PRES HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT COULD CAUSE
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO LOW PRES 1007 MB NEAR
13N96W TO 11N108W TO 14N115W TO 13N130W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
13N130W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN
92W AND 102W.

...DISCUSSION...

RESIDUAL SWELL FROM A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE WATERS FROM 13N TO 21N W OF 125W...AND COMBINE WITH
SWELL GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM RACHEL...FROM 14N TO 28N
BETWEEN 113W AND 125W. RESIDUAL SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH EARLY TUE.

MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING SWLY WINDS WITHIN 120 NM SE
OF A LINE FROM 12N102W TO 10N105W TO 10N110W WITH BUILDING SEAS
OF 8 TO 10 FT BY WED MORNING. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS
COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OFF THE
COAST OF MEXICO.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300251
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 23.3N 117.5W AT 30/0300
UTC SEP 2014 MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRES IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH
GUSTS 50 KT. STEADY WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND RACHEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON
TUESDAY AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS WEST. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE. SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

1007 MB LOW PRES CONTINUES BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N97W APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SE OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO. THIS IS IN THE AREA WHERE A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES HAVE
ACCUMULATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ENHANCING THE CYCLONIC
TURNING ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. AN EARLIER ASCAT SATELLITE
PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO
NEAR PUERTO ANGEL TO THE NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRES...CORROBORATED BY A REPORT OF 25 KT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
AT NEARBY PUERTO ESCONDIDO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FLARING WITHIN 150 NM N AND 240 NM S OF THE
LOW PRES. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS BROAD LOW
PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT DRIFTS TO THE WNW PARALLELING THE COAST OF
MEXICO. THE LOW PRES HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT COULD CAUSE
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO LOW PRES 1007 MB NEAR
13N96W TO 11N108W TO 14N115W TO 13N130W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
13N130W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN
92W AND 102W.

...DISCUSSION...

RESIDUAL SWELL FROM A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE WATERS FROM 13N TO 21N W OF 125W...AND COMBINE WITH
SWELL GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM RACHEL...FROM 14N TO 28N
BETWEEN 113W AND 125W. RESIDUAL SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH EARLY TUE.

MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING SWLY WINDS WITHIN 120 NM SE
OF A LINE FROM 12N102W TO 10N105W TO 10N110W WITH BUILDING SEAS
OF 8 TO 10 FT BY WED MORNING. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS
COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OFF THE
COAST OF MEXICO.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
WTPZ33 KNHC 300236
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
800 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

...RACHEL WEAKENS SOME MORE WHILE IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 117.5W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST. RACHEL IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING TOWARD
THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
LATE TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



000
WTPZ33 KNHC 300236
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
800 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

...RACHEL WEAKENS SOME MORE WHILE IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 117.5W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST. RACHEL IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING TOWARD
THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
LATE TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 300235
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
0300 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 117.5W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 117.5W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 117.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.3N 117.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.3N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 23.2N 118.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.1N 118.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 23.0N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 117.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 300235
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
0300 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 117.5W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 117.5W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 117.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.3N 117.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.3N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 23.2N 118.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.1N 118.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 23.0N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 117.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





000
WTPQ32 PGUM 300052
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1100 AM CHST TUE SEP 30 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE CONTINUING TO TRACK TOWARD THE FAR
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN...
PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS...INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHANFONE.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 148.3E
ABOUT 175 MILES E OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 225 MILES ENE OF ROTA
ABOUT 270 MILES NE OF GUAM
ABOUT 250 MILES SE OF PAGAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW...305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 148.3 EAST.
PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 16 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TYPHOON LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

BIRCHARD




000
WTPQ32 PGUM 300052
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1100 AM CHST TUE SEP 30 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE CONTINUING TO TRACK TOWARD THE FAR
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN...
PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS...INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHANFONE.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 148.3E
ABOUT 175 MILES E OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 225 MILES ENE OF ROTA
ABOUT 270 MILES NE OF GUAM
ABOUT 250 MILES SE OF PAGAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW...305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 148.3 EAST.
PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 16 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TYPHOON LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

BIRCHARD





000
AXNT20 KNHC 300003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 17N16W TO 10N19W TO 5N19W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
THE GOES-R AIRMASS PRODUCT SHOWS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
MAINLY IN THE N-NW WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHERE SOME DUST IS ALSO
OBSERVED. MIDDLE-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN THE CENTRAL WAVE
ENVIRONMENT WHILE HIGH CLOUDS ARE SW OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 13W-17W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120
NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AXIS S OF 10N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N39W TO 14N42W  TO 7N44W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE SSMI TPW
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE GOES-R
AIRMASS PRODUCT SHOWS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR N OF THE
WAVE ENVIRONMENT DEVOID OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N82W TO 10N84W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS
BENEATH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
5N20W TO 5N29W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N29W TO 7N42W. THE ITCZ
RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 7N45W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 5N54W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-32W...AND BETWEEN 50W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA AT 31N82W TO A 1009 MB LOW S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA AT
30N87W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 27N90W TO
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 26N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO FROM
25N-31N BETWEEN 80W-85W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE W GULF FROM 11N-27N BETWEEN 90W-97W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND
S MEXICO S OF 20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE NE GULF SUPPORTING THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N95W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OVER TEXAS AND THE TEXAS COAST. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE E TO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N77W WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING W TO THE  FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH CONTINUED
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT A SURFACE TROUGH TO BE OVER THE W GULF
WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA...N COLOMBIA...AND NW VENEZUELA.
ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST
S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING W TO N
NICARAGUA ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER CUBA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W... WHILE THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWLY E.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS SHOWERS TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE N FLORIDA ATLANTIC
COAST W OF 78W AND N OF 26N. A 1008 MB LOW IS JUST W OF BERMUDA
NEAR 32N66W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO CENTERED NEAR 33N65W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-33N BETWEEN 58W-65W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 19N49W
TO 14N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN
46W-49W. A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 37N18W. IN ADDITION OVER THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N53W ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 300003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 17N16W TO 10N19W TO 5N19W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
THE GOES-R AIRMASS PRODUCT SHOWS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
MAINLY IN THE N-NW WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHERE SOME DUST IS ALSO
OBSERVED. MIDDLE-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN THE CENTRAL WAVE
ENVIRONMENT WHILE HIGH CLOUDS ARE SW OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 13W-17W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120
NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AXIS S OF 10N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N39W TO 14N42W  TO 7N44W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE SSMI TPW
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE GOES-R
AIRMASS PRODUCT SHOWS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR N OF THE
WAVE ENVIRONMENT DEVOID OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N82W TO 10N84W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS
BENEATH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
5N20W TO 5N29W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N29W TO 7N42W. THE ITCZ
RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 7N45W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 5N54W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-32W...AND BETWEEN 50W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA AT 31N82W TO A 1009 MB LOW S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA AT
30N87W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 27N90W TO
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 26N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO FROM
25N-31N BETWEEN 80W-85W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE W GULF FROM 11N-27N BETWEEN 90W-97W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND
S MEXICO S OF 20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE NE GULF SUPPORTING THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N95W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OVER TEXAS AND THE TEXAS COAST. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE E TO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N77W WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING W TO THE  FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH CONTINUED
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT A SURFACE TROUGH TO BE OVER THE W GULF
WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA...N COLOMBIA...AND NW VENEZUELA.
ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST
S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING W TO N
NICARAGUA ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER CUBA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W... WHILE THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWLY E.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS SHOWERS TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE N FLORIDA ATLANTIC
COAST W OF 78W AND N OF 26N. A 1008 MB LOW IS JUST W OF BERMUDA
NEAR 32N66W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO CENTERED NEAR 33N65W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-33N BETWEEN 58W-65W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 19N49W
TO 14N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN
46W-49W. A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 37N18W. IN ADDITION OVER THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N53W ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 300003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 17N16W TO 10N19W TO 5N19W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
THE GOES-R AIRMASS PRODUCT SHOWS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
MAINLY IN THE N-NW WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHERE SOME DUST IS ALSO
OBSERVED. MIDDLE-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN THE CENTRAL WAVE
ENVIRONMENT WHILE HIGH CLOUDS ARE SW OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 13W-17W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120
NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AXIS S OF 10N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N39W TO 14N42W  TO 7N44W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE SSMI TPW
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE GOES-R
AIRMASS PRODUCT SHOWS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR N OF THE
WAVE ENVIRONMENT DEVOID OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N82W TO 10N84W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS
BENEATH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
5N20W TO 5N29W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N29W TO 7N42W. THE ITCZ
RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 7N45W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 5N54W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-32W...AND BETWEEN 50W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA AT 31N82W TO A 1009 MB LOW S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA AT
30N87W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 27N90W TO
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 26N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO FROM
25N-31N BETWEEN 80W-85W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE W GULF FROM 11N-27N BETWEEN 90W-97W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND
S MEXICO S OF 20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE NE GULF SUPPORTING THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N95W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OVER TEXAS AND THE TEXAS COAST. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE E TO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N77W WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING W TO THE  FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH CONTINUED
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT A SURFACE TROUGH TO BE OVER THE W GULF
WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA...N COLOMBIA...AND NW VENEZUELA.
ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST
S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING W TO N
NICARAGUA ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER CUBA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W... WHILE THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWLY E.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS SHOWERS TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE N FLORIDA ATLANTIC
COAST W OF 78W AND N OF 26N. A 1008 MB LOW IS JUST W OF BERMUDA
NEAR 32N66W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO CENTERED NEAR 33N65W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-33N BETWEEN 58W-65W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 19N49W
TO 14N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN
46W-49W. A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 37N18W. IN ADDITION OVER THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N53W ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 300003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 17N16W TO 10N19W TO 5N19W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
THE GOES-R AIRMASS PRODUCT SHOWS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
MAINLY IN THE N-NW WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHERE SOME DUST IS ALSO
OBSERVED. MIDDLE-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN THE CENTRAL WAVE
ENVIRONMENT WHILE HIGH CLOUDS ARE SW OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 13W-17W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120
NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AXIS S OF 10N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N39W TO 14N42W  TO 7N44W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE SSMI TPW
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE GOES-R
AIRMASS PRODUCT SHOWS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR N OF THE
WAVE ENVIRONMENT DEVOID OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N82W TO 10N84W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS
BENEATH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
5N20W TO 5N29W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N29W TO 7N42W. THE ITCZ
RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 7N45W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 5N54W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-32W...AND BETWEEN 50W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA AT 31N82W TO A 1009 MB LOW S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA AT
30N87W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 27N90W TO
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 26N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO FROM
25N-31N BETWEEN 80W-85W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE W GULF FROM 11N-27N BETWEEN 90W-97W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND
S MEXICO S OF 20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE NE GULF SUPPORTING THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N95W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OVER TEXAS AND THE TEXAS COAST. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE E TO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N77W WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING W TO THE  FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH CONTINUED
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT A SURFACE TROUGH TO BE OVER THE W GULF
WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA...N COLOMBIA...AND NW VENEZUELA.
ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST
S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING W TO N
NICARAGUA ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER CUBA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W... WHILE THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWLY E.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS SHOWERS TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE N FLORIDA ATLANTIC
COAST W OF 78W AND N OF 26N. A 1008 MB LOW IS JUST W OF BERMUDA
NEAR 32N66W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO CENTERED NEAR 33N65W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-33N BETWEEN 58W-65W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 19N49W
TO 14N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN
46W-49W. A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 37N18W. IN ADDITION OVER THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N53W ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
ACPN50 PHFO 292336
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST MON SEP 29 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

FOSTER





000
ACPN50 PHFO 292336
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST MON SEP 29 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

FOSTER






000
ACCA62 TJSJ 292332
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT LUNES 29 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CONTINUAN DISMINUYENDO EN ASOCIACION CON UN
AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA JUSTO AL OESTE NOROESTE DE BERMUDA.
NO SE ANTICIPA DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO DE ESTE SISTEMA DEBIDO AL
AUMENTO EN LOS VIENTOS FUERTES DE LOS NIVELES ALTOS. ESTA BAJA
PRESION DEBE MOVERSE GENERALMENTE HACIA EL NORTE DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS DIAS A UNA VELOCIDAD MAYOR DE TRASLACION.
INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DE SU DESARROLLO...ESTE SISTEMA PUDIERA PRODUCIR
LLUVIAS LOCALMENTE FUERTES Y RAFAGAS DE VIENTO FUERTES SOBRE BERMUDA
DURANTE LA NOCHE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE





000
ABNT20 KNHC 292328
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms continue to decrease in association with a
low pressure area located just west-northwest of Bermuda.
Significant development of this system is not anticipated due to
increasingly strong upper-level winds.  This low should move
generally northward during the next couple of days at a faster
forward speed. Regardless of development, the disturbance could
produce locally heavy rains and gusty winds across Bermuda
overnight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABNT20 KNHC 292328
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms continue to decrease in association with a
low pressure area located just west-northwest of Bermuda.
Significant development of this system is not anticipated due to
increasingly strong upper-level winds.  This low should move
generally northward during the next couple of days at a faster
forward speed. Regardless of development, the disturbance could
produce locally heavy rains and gusty winds across Bermuda
overnight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABNT20 KNHC 292328
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms continue to decrease in association with a
low pressure area located just west-northwest of Bermuda.
Significant development of this system is not anticipated due to
increasingly strong upper-level winds.  This low should move
generally northward during the next couple of days at a faster
forward speed. Regardless of development, the disturbance could
produce locally heavy rains and gusty winds across Bermuda
overnight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABNT20 KNHC 292328
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms continue to decrease in association with a
low pressure area located just west-northwest of Bermuda.
Significant development of this system is not anticipated due to
increasingly strong upper-level winds.  This low should move
generally northward during the next couple of days at a faster
forward speed. Regardless of development, the disturbance could
produce locally heavy rains and gusty winds across Bermuda
overnight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292312
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

Satellite-derived winds and nearby surface observations indicate
that an elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, is gradually becoming better
defined. Although thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized,
environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week while the system drifts west-northwestward or
northwestward.  Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this
disturbance could produce locally heavy rains over portions of
southern Mexico that could cause flash floods and mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292312
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

Satellite-derived winds and nearby surface observations indicate
that an elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, is gradually becoming better
defined. Although thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized,
environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week while the system drifts west-northwestward or
northwestward.  Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this
disturbance could produce locally heavy rains over portions of
southern Mexico that could cause flash floods and mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
WTPQ32 PGUM 292148
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM CHST TUE SEP 30 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE CONTINUING TO TRACK TOWARD THE FAR
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN...
PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS...INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHANFONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 149.0E
ABOUT 225 MILES E OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 255 MILES E OF ROTA
ABOUT 285 MILES ENE OF GUAM
ABOUT 335 MILES SE OF PAGAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW...295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 149.0 EAST.
PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH...AND
THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TYPHOON LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM CHST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM CHST.

$$

R BALLARD
GUARD...WATCHES/WARNINGS






000
WTPQ32 PGUM 292148
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM CHST TUE SEP 30 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE CONTINUING TO TRACK TOWARD THE FAR
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN...
PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS...INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHANFONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 149.0E
ABOUT 225 MILES E OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 255 MILES E OF ROTA
ABOUT 285 MILES ENE OF GUAM
ABOUT 335 MILES SE OF PAGAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW...295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 149.0 EAST.
PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH...AND
THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TYPHOON LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM CHST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM CHST.

$$

R BALLARD
GUARD...WATCHES/WARNINGS






000
WTPQ32 PGUM 292148
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM CHST TUE SEP 30 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE CONTINUING TO TRACK TOWARD THE FAR
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN...
PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS...INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHANFONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 149.0E
ABOUT 225 MILES E OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 255 MILES E OF ROTA
ABOUT 285 MILES ENE OF GUAM
ABOUT 335 MILES SE OF PAGAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW...295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 149.0 EAST.
PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH...AND
THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TYPHOON LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM CHST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM CHST.

$$

R BALLARD
GUARD...WATCHES/WARNINGS






000
WTPQ32 PGUM 292148
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM CHST TUE SEP 30 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE CONTINUING TO TRACK TOWARD THE FAR
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN...
PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS...INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHANFONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 149.0E
ABOUT 225 MILES E OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 255 MILES E OF ROTA
ABOUT 285 MILES ENE OF GUAM
ABOUT 335 MILES SE OF PAGAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW...295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 149.0 EAST.
PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH...AND
THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TYPHOON LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM CHST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM CHST.

$$

R BALLARD
GUARD...WATCHES/WARNINGS






000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292140
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON SEP 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 29/2100...TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.8N 114.4W
MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS
998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS 55 KT. STEADY
WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RACHEL IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS
WEST. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/ WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 14N93W TO LOW PRES
1008 MB NEAR 13N96W TO 11N108W TO 15N115W TO 13N130W. THE ITCZ
FROM EXTENDS 13N130W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 240 NM S OF
TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 102W.

...DISCUSSION... LOW PRES IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH
NEAR 13N96W TO THE SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS IS IN THE
AREA WHERE A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES HAVE ACCUMULATED OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ENHANCING THE CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH. THIS IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FLARING WITHIN 150 NM N
AND 240 NM S OF THE LOW PRES. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT THIS BROAD LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT DRIFTS TO THE WNW
PARALLELING THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE LOW PRES HAS A HIGH CHANCE
OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 3-5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT COULD CAUSE
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

RESIDUAL SWELL FROM A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE WATERS FROM 13N TO 21N W OF 125W...AND COMBINE WITH
SWELL GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM RACHEL...FROM 14N TO 28N
BETWEEN 113W AND 125W. RESIDUAL SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH EARLY TUE.

MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING SWLY WINDS WITHIN 120 NM SE
OF A LINE FROM 12N102W TO 10N105W TO 10N110W WITH BUILDING SEAS
OF 8 TO 10 FT BY WED MORNING. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS
COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OFF THE
COAST OF MEXICO.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292140
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON SEP 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 29/2100...TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.8N 114.4W
MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS
998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS 55 KT. STEADY
WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RACHEL IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS
WEST. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/ WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 14N93W TO LOW PRES
1008 MB NEAR 13N96W TO 11N108W TO 15N115W TO 13N130W. THE ITCZ
FROM EXTENDS 13N130W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 240 NM S OF
TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 102W.

...DISCUSSION... LOW PRES IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH
NEAR 13N96W TO THE SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS IS IN THE
AREA WHERE A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES HAVE ACCUMULATED OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ENHANCING THE CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH. THIS IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FLARING WITHIN 150 NM N
AND 240 NM S OF THE LOW PRES. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT THIS BROAD LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT DRIFTS TO THE WNW
PARALLELING THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE LOW PRES HAS A HIGH CHANCE
OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 3-5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT COULD CAUSE
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

RESIDUAL SWELL FROM A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE WATERS FROM 13N TO 21N W OF 125W...AND COMBINE WITH
SWELL GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM RACHEL...FROM 14N TO 28N
BETWEEN 113W AND 125W. RESIDUAL SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH EARLY TUE.

MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING SWLY WINDS WITHIN 120 NM SE
OF A LINE FROM 12N102W TO 10N105W TO 10N110W WITH BUILDING SEAS
OF 8 TO 10 FT BY WED MORNING. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS
COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OFF THE
COAST OF MEXICO.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
WTPQ32 PGUM 292106 CCB
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN...CORRECTED
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
500 AM CHST TUE SEP 30 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE STRENGTHENING AND TRACKING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN...
PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS...INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF PHANFONE.

SUMMARY OF 0500 AM CHST...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 149.5E
ABOUT 260 MILES ESE OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 280 MILES E OF ROTA
ABOUT 315 MILES E OF GUAM
ABOUT 370 MILES SE OF PAGAN AND
ABOUT 490 MILES NNW OF CHUUK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW...300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 0500 AM CHST...1900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 149.5 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND
10 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 2
DAYS. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OF PHANFONE ABOUT
60 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTH OF ALAMAGAN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS...
APPROACHING TYPHOON INTENSITY AS IT PASSES NORTH OF SAIPAN TONIGHT...
AND NEAR ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN WEDNESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM CHST THIS MORNING.

$$

BIRCHARD





000
WTPQ32 PGUM 292049 CCA
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN...CORRECTED
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
500 AM CHST TUE SEP 30 2014

CORRECTED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE STRENGTHENING AND TRACKING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN...
PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS...INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF PHANFONE.

SUMMARY OF 0500 AM CHST...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 149.5E
ABOUT 260 MILES ESE OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 280 MILES E OF ROTA
ABOUT 315 MILES E OF GUAM
ABOUT 370 MILES SE OF PAGAN AND
ABOUT 490 MILES NNW OF CHUUK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW...300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 0500 AM CHST...1900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 149.5 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND
10 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 2
DAYS. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OF PHANFONE ABOUT
60 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTH OF ALAMAGAN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS...
APPROACHING TYPHOON INTENSITY AS IT PASSES NORTH OF SAIPAN TONIGHT...
AND NEAR ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN WEDNESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

BIRCHARD




000
WTPZ33 KNHC 292033
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
200 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

...RACHEL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 117.5W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST. RACHEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND THE CYCLONE IS
LIKELY TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  STEADY WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE...AND
RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/LEWITSKY




000
WTPZ33 KNHC 292033
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
200 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

...RACHEL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 117.5W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST. RACHEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND THE CYCLONE IS
LIKELY TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  STEADY WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE...AND
RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/LEWITSKY



000
WTPZ23 KNHC 292032
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
2100 UTC MON SEP 29 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 117.5W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  40SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  75SE  75SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 117.5W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 117.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.2N 117.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.1N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.0N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 22.8N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 22.6N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 117.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/LEWITSKY




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 292032
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
2100 UTC MON SEP 29 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 117.5W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  40SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  75SE  75SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 117.5W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 117.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.2N 117.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.1N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.0N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 22.8N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 22.6N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 117.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/LEWITSKY





000
WTPQ32 PGUM 291913
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
500 AM CHST TUE SEP 30 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE STRENGTHENING AND TRACKING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN...
PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS...INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF PHANFONE.

SUMMARY OF 0500 AM CHST...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 149.5E
ABOUT 260 MILES ESE OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 280 MILES E OF ROTA
ABOUT 315 MILES E OF GUAM
ABOUT 370 MILES SE OF PAGAN AND
ABOUT 490 MILES NNW OF CHUUK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW...300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 0500 AM CHST...1900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 149.5 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND
10 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 2
DAYS. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OF PHANFONE ABOUT
60 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTH OF ALAMAGAN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS...
APPROACHING TYPHOON INTENSITY AS IT PASSES NORTH OF SAIPAN TONIGHT...
AND NEAR ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN WEDNESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

BIRCHARD





000
WTPQ32 PGUM 291913
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
500 AM CHST TUE SEP 30 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE STRENGTHENING AND TRACKING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN...
PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS...INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF PHANFONE.

SUMMARY OF 0500 AM CHST...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 149.5E
ABOUT 260 MILES ESE OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 280 MILES E OF ROTA
ABOUT 315 MILES E OF GUAM
ABOUT 370 MILES SE OF PAGAN AND
ABOUT 490 MILES NNW OF CHUUK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW...300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 0500 AM CHST...1900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 149.5 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND
10 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 2
DAYS. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OF PHANFONE ABOUT
60 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTH OF ALAMAGAN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS...
APPROACHING TYPHOON INTENSITY AS IT PASSES NORTH OF SAIPAN TONIGHT...
AND NEAR ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN WEDNESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

BIRCHARD




000
AXNT20 KNHC 291804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TRPCL WAVE CAME OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST THIS MORNING. ITS
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N17W TO 2N17W AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W AT A
SPEED OF 15 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE GOES-R AIRMASS
PRODUCT SHOW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR MAINLY IN THE N-NW
WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHERE SOME DUST IS ALSO OBSERVED. MIDDLE-LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN THE CENTRAL WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHILE HIGH CLOUDS ARE
SW OF THE AXIS WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S
OF 6N WITHIN 160 NM.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N37W TO 9N42W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE GOES-R AIRMASS
PRODUCT SHOW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION IN THIS
REGION OF THE WAVE. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS IN THE NORTHERN
REGION OF THE WAVE WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 37W-41W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 22N81W TO 10N81W...MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT. A MIDDLE LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW TO MIDDLE MODERATE MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF WAVE AXIS S OF 19N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N13W TO
6N17W TO 5N22W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N23W TO 4N30W TO 6N39W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 15W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG 30N83W TO A
1011 MB LOW NEAR 29N86W TO 27N92W 27N96W TO 22N97W. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N91W TO 24N95W TO 20N96W
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N W OF 94W. IN THE UPPER-LEVELS A
RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE NW GULF WHILE THE REMAINDER BASIN AND
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER RIDGE
ANCHORED NEAR 23N83W. THIS RIDGES ARRANGEMENT IN THE UPPER
LEVELS IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N
OF 25N E OF 89W. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT IN THE NE GULF IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT TONIGHT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TUE MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE BASIN IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN BASIN DISCUSSED IN THE WAVES SECTION ABOVE. DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS
WHILE BOTH DRY AIR AND STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN. A
SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE SUPPORT TRADES OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BASIN WHILE WINDS OF 10 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE TROPICAL WAVE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY TUE MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW N ATLC
EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE ISLAND AND THE CENTRAL-EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...WHICH ALONG SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT CLOUDINESS
ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLAND. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
E GIVING THE ISLAND MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LIMIT
HEAVY RAIN...BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA BEING
SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 28N W OF 74W. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 32N65W JUST WEST OF BERMUDA BEING
SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDING A TROUGH AXIS
INTO A PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS. RAINBANDS OF MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 30N-35N WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE LOW
CENTER. SIMILAR CONVECTION EXTENDS S OF 30 N BETWEEN 59W-70W.
HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR BERMUDA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF THREE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE BEING
ANALYZED AS THREE SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE ALONG 27N44W TO
23N51W...A SECOND ALONG 27N34W TO 20N41W AND THE THIRD AHEAD OF
A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 18N45W TO 15N48W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 19N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 291804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TRPCL WAVE CAME OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST THIS MORNING. ITS
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N17W TO 2N17W AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W AT A
SPEED OF 15 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE GOES-R AIRMASS
PRODUCT SHOW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR MAINLY IN THE N-NW
WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHERE SOME DUST IS ALSO OBSERVED. MIDDLE-LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN THE CENTRAL WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHILE HIGH CLOUDS ARE
SW OF THE AXIS WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S
OF 6N WITHIN 160 NM.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N37W TO 9N42W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE GOES-R AIRMASS
PRODUCT SHOW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION IN THIS
REGION OF THE WAVE. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS IN THE NORTHERN
REGION OF THE WAVE WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 37W-41W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 22N81W TO 10N81W...MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT. A MIDDLE LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW TO MIDDLE MODERATE MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF WAVE AXIS S OF 19N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N13W TO
6N17W TO 5N22W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N23W TO 4N30W TO 6N39W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 15W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG 30N83W TO A
1011 MB LOW NEAR 29N86W TO 27N92W 27N96W TO 22N97W. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N91W TO 24N95W TO 20N96W
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N W OF 94W. IN THE UPPER-LEVELS A
RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE NW GULF WHILE THE REMAINDER BASIN AND
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER RIDGE
ANCHORED NEAR 23N83W. THIS RIDGES ARRANGEMENT IN THE UPPER
LEVELS IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N
OF 25N E OF 89W. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT IN THE NE GULF IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT TONIGHT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TUE MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE BASIN IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN BASIN DISCUSSED IN THE WAVES SECTION ABOVE. DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS
WHILE BOTH DRY AIR AND STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN. A
SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE SUPPORT TRADES OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BASIN WHILE WINDS OF 10 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE TROPICAL WAVE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY TUE MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW N ATLC
EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE ISLAND AND THE CENTRAL-EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...WHICH ALONG SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT CLOUDINESS
ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLAND. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
E GIVING THE ISLAND MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LIMIT
HEAVY RAIN...BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA BEING
SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 28N W OF 74W. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 32N65W JUST WEST OF BERMUDA BEING
SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDING A TROUGH AXIS
INTO A PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS. RAINBANDS OF MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 30N-35N WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE LOW
CENTER. SIMILAR CONVECTION EXTENDS S OF 30 N BETWEEN 59W-70W.
HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR BERMUDA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF THREE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE BEING
ANALYZED AS THREE SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE ALONG 27N44W TO
23N51W...A SECOND ALONG 27N34W TO 20N41W AND THE THIRD AHEAD OF
A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 18N45W TO 15N48W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 19N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 291757
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT LUNES 29 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADOS CON UN AREA DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADO JUSTO AL OESTE DE BERMDUDA HA DISMINUIDO EN COBERTURA
DESDE ESTA MANANA. VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS SE ESPERA SE TORNEN
DESFAVORABLES PARA DESARROLLO ESTA NOCHE Y MARTES...Y LA POSIBILIDAD
DE FORMACION DE UN CICLON TROPICAL O SUBTROPICAL HA DISMINUIDO. SE
ESPERA QUE ESTE SISTEMA SE MUEVA GENERALEMENTE AL NORTE DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS VARIOS DIAS CON UN AUMENTO EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION.
INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DE SU DESARROLLO...ESTE SISTEMA PRODUCIRA LLUVIAS
LOCALMENTE FUERTES Y RAFAGAS DE VIENTO FUERTES SOBRE BERMUDA HASTA
ESTA NOCHE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJO...20 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJO...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 291757
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT LUNES 29 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADOS CON UN AREA DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADO JUSTO AL OESTE DE BERMDUDA HA DISMINUIDO EN COBERTURA
DESDE ESTA MANANA. VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS SE ESPERA SE TORNEN
DESFAVORABLES PARA DESARROLLO ESTA NOCHE Y MARTES...Y LA POSIBILIDAD
DE FORMACION DE UN CICLON TROPICAL O SUBTROPICAL HA DISMINUIDO. SE
ESPERA QUE ESTE SISTEMA SE MUEVA GENERALEMENTE AL NORTE DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS VARIOS DIAS CON UN AUMENTO EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION.
INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DE SU DESARROLLO...ESTE SISTEMA PRODUCIRA LLUVIAS
LOCALMENTE FUERTES Y RAFAGAS DE VIENTO FUERTES SOBRE BERMUDA HASTA
ESTA NOCHE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJO...20 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJO...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 291757
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT LUNES 29 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADOS CON UN AREA DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADO JUSTO AL OESTE DE BERMDUDA HA DISMINUIDO EN COBERTURA
DESDE ESTA MANANA. VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS SE ESPERA SE TORNEN
DESFAVORABLES PARA DESARROLLO ESTA NOCHE Y MARTES...Y LA POSIBILIDAD
DE FORMACION DE UN CICLON TROPICAL O SUBTROPICAL HA DISMINUIDO. SE
ESPERA QUE ESTE SISTEMA SE MUEVA GENERALEMENTE AL NORTE DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS VARIOS DIAS CON UN AUMENTO EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION.
INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DE SU DESARROLLO...ESTE SISTEMA PRODUCIRA LLUVIAS
LOCALMENTE FUERTES Y RAFAGAS DE VIENTO FUERTES SOBRE BERMUDA HASTA
ESTA NOCHE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJO...20 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJO...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 291757
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT LUNES 29 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADOS CON UN AREA DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADO JUSTO AL OESTE DE BERMDUDA HA DISMINUIDO EN COBERTURA
DESDE ESTA MANANA. VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS SE ESPERA SE TORNEN
DESFAVORABLES PARA DESARROLLO ESTA NOCHE Y MARTES...Y LA POSIBILIDAD
DE FORMACION DE UN CICLON TROPICAL O SUBTROPICAL HA DISMINUIDO. SE
ESPERA QUE ESTE SISTEMA SE MUEVA GENERALEMENTE AL NORTE DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS VARIOS DIAS CON UN AUMENTO EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION.
INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DE SU DESARROLLO...ESTE SISTEMA PRODUCIRA LLUVIAS
LOCALMENTE FUERTES Y RAFAGAS DE VIENTO FUERTES SOBRE BERMUDA HASTA
ESTA NOCHE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJO...20 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJO...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN





000
ACPN50 PHFO 291746
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST MON SEP 29 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

FOSTER





000
ABNT20 KNHC 291745
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located just west of Bermuda have decreased in coverage since this
morning.  Upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for
development tonight and Tuesday, and the likelihood of subtropical
or tropical cyclone formation has decreased. This system is expected
to move generally northward during the next couple of days with
increasing forward speed. Regardless of development, the low could
produce locally heavy rains and gusty winds over Bermuda through
tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABNT20 KNHC 291745
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located just west of Bermuda have decreased in coverage since this
morning.  Upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for
development tonight and Tuesday, and the likelihood of subtropical
or tropical cyclone formation has decreased. This system is expected
to move generally northward during the next couple of days with
increasing forward speed. Regardless of development, the low could
produce locally heavy rains and gusty winds over Bermuda through
tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABNT20 KNHC 291745
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located just west of Bermuda have decreased in coverage since this
morning.  Upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for
development tonight and Tuesday, and the likelihood of subtropical
or tropical cyclone formation has decreased. This system is expected
to move generally northward during the next couple of days with
increasing forward speed. Regardless of development, the low could
produce locally heavy rains and gusty winds over Bermuda through
tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABNT20 KNHC 291745
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located just west of Bermuda have decreased in coverage since this
morning.  Upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for
development tonight and Tuesday, and the likelihood of subtropical
or tropical cyclone formation has decreased. This system is expected
to move generally northward during the next couple of days with
increasing forward speed. Regardless of development, the low could
produce locally heavy rains and gusty winds over Bermuda through
tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291740
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southeast of Acapulco,
Mexico, has increased this morning. Environmental conditions are
conducive for additional development during the next several days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while
the system drifts west-northwestward or northwestward.  Regardless
of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance could produce
locally heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico that could
cause flash floods and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Lewitsky



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291740
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southeast of Acapulco,
Mexico, has increased this morning. Environmental conditions are
conducive for additional development during the next several days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while
the system drifts west-northwestward or northwestward.  Regardless
of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance could produce
locally heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico that could
cause flash floods and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Lewitsky


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291546
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON SEP 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
RACHEL WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AT 29/1500. AT THIS
TIME...RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.8N 117.5W MOVING N OR 360 DEG
AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS 60 KT. STEADY
WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RACHEL IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY. NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N
SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 22N
TO 25N BETWEEN 115W AND 118W. RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY LATER TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD BY
TUESDAY. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP3/ WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 101W N OF 12N MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE COVERING THE AREA N OF 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W.
AS THE WAVE MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP S OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE AREA COULD SPAWN A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY LATER THIS WEEK. THIS BROAD AREA OF WEATHER HAS A
HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 3-5
DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT COULD
CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 12N90W TO 1007 MB LOW PRES
NEAR 13.5N96.5W TO 12N107W 13N112W TO 14N118W TO 13N128W. ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 13N128W TO 12N136W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 92W AND
98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN
109W AND 112W.

...DISCUSSION...
RESIDUAL SWELL FROM A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE WATERS FROM 13N TO 21N W OF 125W...AND COMBINE WITH
SWELL GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM RACHEL...FROM 14N TO 28N
BETWEEN 113W AND 125W. RESIDUAL SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH EARLY TUE.

MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING SWLY WINDS WITHIN 120 NM SE
OF A LINE FROM 12N102W TO 10N105W TO 10N110W WITH BUILDING SEAS
OF 8 TO 10 FT BY WED MORNING. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS
COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES FORECAST TO
DEVELOP S OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS PUSHING N-NE ACROSS THE
EQUATOR AND WILL COVER MUCH OF THE AREA S OF A LINE FROM 3.4S90W
TO 12N100W TO 12N118W TO 00N135W BY WED MORNING.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291546
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON SEP 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
RACHEL WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AT 29/1500. AT THIS
TIME...RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.8N 117.5W MOVING N OR 360 DEG
AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS 60 KT. STEADY
WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RACHEL IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY. NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N
SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 22N
TO 25N BETWEEN 115W AND 118W. RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY LATER TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD BY
TUESDAY. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP3/ WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 101W N OF 12N MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE COVERING THE AREA N OF 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W.
AS THE WAVE MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP S OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE AREA COULD SPAWN A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY LATER THIS WEEK. THIS BROAD AREA OF WEATHER HAS A
HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 3-5
DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT COULD
CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 12N90W TO 1007 MB LOW PRES
NEAR 13.5N96.5W TO 12N107W 13N112W TO 14N118W TO 13N128W. ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 13N128W TO 12N136W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 92W AND
98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN
109W AND 112W.

...DISCUSSION...
RESIDUAL SWELL FROM A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE WATERS FROM 13N TO 21N W OF 125W...AND COMBINE WITH
SWELL GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM RACHEL...FROM 14N TO 28N
BETWEEN 113W AND 125W. RESIDUAL SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH EARLY TUE.

MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING SWLY WINDS WITHIN 120 NM SE
OF A LINE FROM 12N102W TO 10N105W TO 10N110W WITH BUILDING SEAS
OF 8 TO 10 FT BY WED MORNING. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS
COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES FORECAST TO
DEVELOP S OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS PUSHING N-NE ACROSS THE
EQUATOR AND WILL COVER MUCH OF THE AREA S OF A LINE FROM 3.4S90W
TO 12N100W TO 12N118W TO 00N135W BY WED MORNING.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291546
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON SEP 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
RACHEL WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AT 29/1500. AT THIS
TIME...RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.8N 117.5W MOVING N OR 360 DEG
AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS 60 KT. STEADY
WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RACHEL IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY. NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N
SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 22N
TO 25N BETWEEN 115W AND 118W. RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY LATER TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD BY
TUESDAY. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP3/ WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 101W N OF 12N MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE COVERING THE AREA N OF 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W.
AS THE WAVE MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP S OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE AREA COULD SPAWN A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY LATER THIS WEEK. THIS BROAD AREA OF WEATHER HAS A
HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 3-5
DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT COULD
CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 12N90W TO 1007 MB LOW PRES
NEAR 13.5N96.5W TO 12N107W 13N112W TO 14N118W TO 13N128W. ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 13N128W TO 12N136W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 92W AND
98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN
109W AND 112W.

...DISCUSSION...
RESIDUAL SWELL FROM A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE WATERS FROM 13N TO 21N W OF 125W...AND COMBINE WITH
SWELL GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM RACHEL...FROM 14N TO 28N
BETWEEN 113W AND 125W. RESIDUAL SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH EARLY TUE.

MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING SWLY WINDS WITHIN 120 NM SE
OF A LINE FROM 12N102W TO 10N105W TO 10N110W WITH BUILDING SEAS
OF 8 TO 10 FT BY WED MORNING. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS
COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES FORECAST TO
DEVELOP S OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS PUSHING N-NE ACROSS THE
EQUATOR AND WILL COVER MUCH OF THE AREA S OF A LINE FROM 3.4S90W
TO 12N100W TO 12N118W TO 00N135W BY WED MORNING.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291546
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON SEP 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
RACHEL WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AT 29/1500. AT THIS
TIME...RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.8N 117.5W MOVING N OR 360 DEG
AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS 60 KT. STEADY
WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RACHEL IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY. NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N
SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 22N
TO 25N BETWEEN 115W AND 118W. RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY LATER TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD BY
TUESDAY. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP3/ WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 101W N OF 12N MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE COVERING THE AREA N OF 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W.
AS THE WAVE MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP S OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE AREA COULD SPAWN A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY LATER THIS WEEK. THIS BROAD AREA OF WEATHER HAS A
HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 3-5
DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT COULD
CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 12N90W TO 1007 MB LOW PRES
NEAR 13.5N96.5W TO 12N107W 13N112W TO 14N118W TO 13N128W. ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 13N128W TO 12N136W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 92W AND
98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN
109W AND 112W.

...DISCUSSION...
RESIDUAL SWELL FROM A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE WATERS FROM 13N TO 21N W OF 125W...AND COMBINE WITH
SWELL GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM RACHEL...FROM 14N TO 28N
BETWEEN 113W AND 125W. RESIDUAL SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH EARLY TUE.

MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING SWLY WINDS WITHIN 120 NM SE
OF A LINE FROM 12N102W TO 10N105W TO 10N110W WITH BUILDING SEAS
OF 8 TO 10 FT BY WED MORNING. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS
COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES FORECAST TO
DEVELOP S OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS PUSHING N-NE ACROSS THE
EQUATOR AND WILL COVER MUCH OF THE AREA S OF A LINE FROM 3.4S90W
TO 12N100W TO 12N118W TO 00N135W BY WED MORNING.

$$
GR


000
WTPQ32 PGUM 291534
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
200 AM CHST TUE SEP 30 2014

...STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE TRACKING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN...
PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND GUAM SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHANFONE.

SUMMARY OF 0100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.8N 149.6E

ABOUT 270 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 290 MILES EAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 320 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN AND
ABOUT 460 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW...290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 0100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 149.6 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND
12 MPH. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...PUTTING THE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...MAKING IT A STRONG AND STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM OVER
THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT 5 AM THIS MORNING.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

POWELL






000
WTPQ32 PGUM 291534
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
200 AM CHST TUE SEP 30 2014

...STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE TRACKING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN...
PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND GUAM SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHANFONE.

SUMMARY OF 0100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.8N 149.6E

ABOUT 270 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 290 MILES EAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 320 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN AND
ABOUT 460 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW...290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 0100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 149.6 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND
12 MPH. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...PUTTING THE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...MAKING IT A STRONG AND STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM OVER
THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT 5 AM THIS MORNING.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

POWELL





000
WTPZ33 KNHC 291451
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
800 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

...RACHEL QUICKLY WEAKENING WHILE IT INCHES NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 117.5W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST. RACHEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY LATER TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING
SOUTHWESTWARD BY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  STEADY WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND RACHEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.33 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/LEWITSKY



000
WTPZ33 KNHC 291451
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
800 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

...RACHEL QUICKLY WEAKENING WHILE IT INCHES NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 117.5W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST. RACHEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY LATER TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING
SOUTHWESTWARD BY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  STEADY WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND RACHEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.33 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/LEWITSKY




000
WTPZ33 KNHC 291447
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
800 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

...RACHEL QUICKLY WEAKENING WHILE IT INCHES SLOWLY NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 117.5W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST. RACHEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY LATER TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING
SOUTHWESTWARD BY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  STEADY WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND RACHEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.33 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/LEWITSKY




000
WTPZ33 KNHC 291447
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
800 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

...RACHEL QUICKLY WEAKENING WHILE IT INCHES SLOWLY NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 117.5W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST. RACHEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY LATER TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING
SOUTHWESTWARD BY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  STEADY WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND RACHEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.33 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/LEWITSKY



000
WTPZ23 KNHC 291446
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
1500 UTC MON SEP 29 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 117.5W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 117.5W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 117.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.0N 117.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.1N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.9N 117.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 22.7N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 22.0N 119.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 117.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/LEWITSKY





000
WTPZ23 KNHC 291446
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
1500 UTC MON SEP 29 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 117.5W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 117.5W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 117.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.0N 117.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.1N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.9N 117.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 22.7N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 22.0N 119.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 117.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/LEWITSKY




000
WTPQ32 PGUM 291245
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1100 PM CHST MON SEP 29 2014

...STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE CONTINUES CHURNING TOWARD
THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN...
PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND GUAM SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHANFONE.

SUMMARY OF 0930 PM CHST...1130 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.6N 150.4E

ABOUT 330 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 370 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 440 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN AND
ABOUT 440 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW...290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 0930 PM CHST...1130 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 150.4 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND
14 MPH. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUTTING THE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAKING
IT A STRONG AND STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT 5 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

POWELL










000
WTPQ32 PGUM 291245
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1100 PM CHST MON SEP 29 2014

...STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE CONTINUES CHURNING TOWARD
THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN...
PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND GUAM SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHANFONE.

SUMMARY OF 0930 PM CHST...1130 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.6N 150.4E

ABOUT 330 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 370 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 440 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN AND
ABOUT 440 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW...290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 0930 PM CHST...1130 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 150.4 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND
14 MPH. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUTTING THE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAKING
IT A STRONG AND STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT 5 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

POWELL










000
WTPQ32 PGUM 291245
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1100 PM CHST MON SEP 29 2014

...STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE CONTINUES CHURNING TOWARD
THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN...
PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND GUAM SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHANFONE.

SUMMARY OF 0930 PM CHST...1130 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.6N 150.4E

ABOUT 330 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 370 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 440 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN AND
ABOUT 440 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW...290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 0930 PM CHST...1130 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 150.4 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND
14 MPH. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUTTING THE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAKING
IT A STRONG AND STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT 5 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

POWELL










000
WTPQ32 PGUM 291245
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1100 PM CHST MON SEP 29 2014

...STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE CONTINUES CHURNING TOWARD
THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN...
PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND GUAM SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHANFONE.

SUMMARY OF 0930 PM CHST...1130 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.6N 150.4E

ABOUT 330 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 370 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 440 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN AND
ABOUT 440 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW...290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 0930 PM CHST...1130 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 150.4 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND
14 MPH. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUTTING THE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAKING
IT A STRONG AND STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT 5 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

POWELL










000
ACCA62 TJSJ 291222
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT LUNES 29 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADOS CON UN AREA DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADO JUSTO AL OESTE DE BERMDUDA SE HA TORNADO UN POCO MAS
ORGANIZADO DURANTE LA NOCHE Y ESTA MANANA. ESTE SISTEMA PODRIA
CONVERTIRSE EN UN CICLON SUBTROPICAL HOY ANTES QUE VIENTOS EN LOS
NIVELES ALTOS SE TORNEN DESFAVORABLES ESTA NOCHE Y MARTES. SE ESPERA
ESTE SISTEMA SE MUEVA AL NOROESTE Y LUEGO AL NORTE DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS VARIOS DIAS CON UN AUMENTO EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION.
INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DE SU DESARROLLO...ESTE SISTEMA PRODUCIRA LLUVIAS
LOCALMENTE FUERTES Y RAFAGAS DE VIENTO FUERTES SOBRE BERMUDA HASTA
ESTA NOCHE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 291222
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT LUNES 29 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADOS CON UN AREA DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADO JUSTO AL OESTE DE BERMDUDA SE HA TORNADO UN POCO MAS
ORGANIZADO DURANTE LA NOCHE Y ESTA MANANA. ESTE SISTEMA PODRIA
CONVERTIRSE EN UN CICLON SUBTROPICAL HOY ANTES QUE VIENTOS EN LOS
NIVELES ALTOS SE TORNEN DESFAVORABLES ESTA NOCHE Y MARTES. SE ESPERA
ESTE SISTEMA SE MUEVA AL NOROESTE Y LUEGO AL NORTE DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS VARIOS DIAS CON UN AUMENTO EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION.
INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DE SU DESARROLLO...ESTE SISTEMA PRODUCIRA LLUVIAS
LOCALMENTE FUERTES Y RAFAGAS DE VIENTO FUERTES SOBRE BERMUDA HASTA
ESTA NOCHE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 291222
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT LUNES 29 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADOS CON UN AREA DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADO JUSTO AL OESTE DE BERMDUDA SE HA TORNADO UN POCO MAS
ORGANIZADO DURANTE LA NOCHE Y ESTA MANANA. ESTE SISTEMA PODRIA
CONVERTIRSE EN UN CICLON SUBTROPICAL HOY ANTES QUE VIENTOS EN LOS
NIVELES ALTOS SE TORNEN DESFAVORABLES ESTA NOCHE Y MARTES. SE ESPERA
ESTE SISTEMA SE MUEVA AL NOROESTE Y LUEGO AL NORTE DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS VARIOS DIAS CON UN AUMENTO EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION.
INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DE SU DESARROLLO...ESTE SISTEMA PRODUCIRA LLUVIAS
LOCALMENTE FUERTES Y RAFAGAS DE VIENTO FUERTES SOBRE BERMUDA HASTA
ESTA NOCHE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 291222
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT LUNES 29 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADOS CON UN AREA DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADO JUSTO AL OESTE DE BERMDUDA SE HA TORNADO UN POCO MAS
ORGANIZADO DURANTE LA NOCHE Y ESTA MANANA. ESTE SISTEMA PODRIA
CONVERTIRSE EN UN CICLON SUBTROPICAL HOY ANTES QUE VIENTOS EN LOS
NIVELES ALTOS SE TORNEN DESFAVORABLES ESTA NOCHE Y MARTES. SE ESPERA
ESTE SISTEMA SE MUEVA AL NOROESTE Y LUEGO AL NORTE DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS VARIOS DIAS CON UN AUMENTO EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION.
INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DE SU DESARROLLO...ESTE SISTEMA PRODUCIRA LLUVIAS
LOCALMENTE FUERTES Y RAFAGAS DE VIENTO FUERTES SOBRE BERMUDA HASTA
ESTA NOCHE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN





000
AXNT20 KNHC 291208 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

TO ADD SPECIAL FEATURES

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 31N64W OR JUST
WEST OF BERMUDA...GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 29N-
34N BETWEEN 60W-67W. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
TODAY BEFORE WINDS AT THE UPPER-LEVELS BECOME UNFAVORABLE
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY SHOWERS
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR BERMUDA THROUGH TONIGHT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N36W TO 9N37W
MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS LOCATED BENEATH THE W SIDE
OF AN UPPER RIDGE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 36W-41W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 80W/81W FROM 11N-
22N MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE W
CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE
IS BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 76W-82W INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND E CUBA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 17N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 16N20W 9N19W TO 7N21W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N31W 7N39W TO 7N46W. CLUSTERS
OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN
15W-36W. THE NEAR-STATIONARY 1012 MB LOW IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 18N46W TO 15N48W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 45W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING E OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND S INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR 29N88W WITH A PAIR OF
UPPER RIDGES TO THE E AND W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA FROM JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE
INTO THE GULF NEAR 29N83W TO A NEWLY DEVELOPED 1012 MB LOW OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA CONTINUING 28N95W TO 25N97W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 82W-86W
AND N OF 27N E OF 89W TO OVER THE SE CONUS. A SECOND SHORTWAVE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG THE N COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF LINE
FROM 19N91W TO TAMPICO MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE
REMAINDER OF THE NW GULF N OF 22N W OF 89W. THE N PORTION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 23N TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. THE W PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME COLD AS THE
LOW MOVES E-NE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA ON WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA THEN
SW TO NICARAGUA/HONDURAS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W TO COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN
76W-80W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-
12N W OF 81W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS TONIGHT. THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE
BEFORE MOVING W OF THE AREA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS
MORNING WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NE OF THE ISLAND. THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA THEN SW INTO
THE CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E GIVING THE ISLAND MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LIMIT HEAVY RAIN...BUT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA
AND THE W ATLC W OF 70W WITH A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING
THE REGION NEAR 32N80W TO ACROSS FLORIDA JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE
CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR BERMUDA AND A
1011 MB SURFACE LOW JUST S OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N64W. HEAVY
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM
28N62W TO 32N61W AND N OF 30N BETWEEN 63W-66W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS TO THE SW EXTENDING FROM 26N67W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR
21N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N-
27N BETWEEN 60W-69W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING FROM 28N45W TO 24N50W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A NARROW UPPER
TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG LINE FROM 28N34W TO 23N40W. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF
45W ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH N OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. THE
FRONT WILL MEANDER N OF 30N THROUGH TUE WHEN THE GULF OF MEXICO
LOW MOVES INTO THE ATLC N OF THE AREA AND SENDS A COLD FRONT OFF
THE NE FLORIDA COAST REACHING FROM 31N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TUE
NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW/NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 291208 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

TO ADD SPECIAL FEATURES

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 31N64W OR JUST
WEST OF BERMUDA...GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 29N-
34N BETWEEN 60W-67W. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
TODAY BEFORE WINDS AT THE UPPER-LEVELS BECOME UNFAVORABLE
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY SHOWERS
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR BERMUDA THROUGH TONIGHT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N36W TO 9N37W
MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS LOCATED BENEATH THE W SIDE
OF AN UPPER RIDGE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 36W-41W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 80W/81W FROM 11N-
22N MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE W
CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE
IS BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 76W-82W INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND E CUBA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 17N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 16N20W 9N19W TO 7N21W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N31W 7N39W TO 7N46W. CLUSTERS
OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN
15W-36W. THE NEAR-STATIONARY 1012 MB LOW IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 18N46W TO 15N48W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 45W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING E OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND S INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR 29N88W WITH A PAIR OF
UPPER RIDGES TO THE E AND W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA FROM JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE
INTO THE GULF NEAR 29N83W TO A NEWLY DEVELOPED 1012 MB LOW OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA CONTINUING 28N95W TO 25N97W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 82W-86W
AND N OF 27N E OF 89W TO OVER THE SE CONUS. A SECOND SHORTWAVE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG THE N COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF LINE
FROM 19N91W TO TAMPICO MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE
REMAINDER OF THE NW GULF N OF 22N W OF 89W. THE N PORTION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 23N TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. THE W PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME COLD AS THE
LOW MOVES E-NE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA ON WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA THEN
SW TO NICARAGUA/HONDURAS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W TO COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN
76W-80W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-
12N W OF 81W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS TONIGHT. THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE
BEFORE MOVING W OF THE AREA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS
MORNING WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NE OF THE ISLAND. THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA THEN SW INTO
THE CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E GIVING THE ISLAND MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LIMIT HEAVY RAIN...BUT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA
AND THE W ATLC W OF 70W WITH A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING
THE REGION NEAR 32N80W TO ACROSS FLORIDA JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE
CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR BERMUDA AND A
1011 MB SURFACE LOW JUST S OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N64W. HEAVY
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM
28N62W TO 32N61W AND N OF 30N BETWEEN 63W-66W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS TO THE SW EXTENDING FROM 26N67W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR
21N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N-
27N BETWEEN 60W-69W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING FROM 28N45W TO 24N50W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A NARROW UPPER
TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG LINE FROM 28N34W TO 23N40W. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF
45W ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH N OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. THE
FRONT WILL MEANDER N OF 30N THROUGH TUE WHEN THE GULF OF MEXICO
LOW MOVES INTO THE ATLC N OF THE AREA AND SENDS A COLD FRONT OFF
THE NE FLORIDA COAST REACHING FROM 31N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TUE
NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW/NR


000
ABNT20 KNHC 291156
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located just west of Bermuda have become a little better organized
overnight and this morning.  This system could become a subtropical
cyclone today before upper-level winds become unfavorable tonight
and Tuesday.  This system is expected to move northwestward and then
northward during the next couple of days with increasing forward
speed. Regardless of development, the low will produce locally heavy
rains and strong gusty winds over Bermuda through tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
AXNT20 KNHC 291155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N36W TO 9N37W
MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS LOCATED BENEATH THE W SIDE
OF AN UPPER RIDGE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 36W-41W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 80W/81W FROM 11N-
22N MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE W
CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE
IS BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 76W-82W INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND E CUBA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 17N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 16N20W 9N19W TO 7N21W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N31W 7N39W TO 7N46W. CLUSTERS
OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN
15W-36W. THE NEAR-STATIONARY 1012 MB LOW IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 18N46W TO 15N48W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 45W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING E OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND S INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR 29N88W WITH A PAIR OF
UPPER RIDGES TO THE E AND W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA FROM JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE
INTO THE GULF NEAR 29N83W TO A NEWLY DEVELOPED 1012 MB LOW OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA CONTINUING 28N95W TO 25N97W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 82W-86W
AND N OF 27N E OF 89W TO OVER THE SE CONUS. A SECOND SHORTWAVE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG THE N COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF LINE
FROM 19N91W TO TAMPICO MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE
REMAINDER OF THE NW GULF N OF 22N W OF 89W. THE N PORTION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 23N TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. THE W PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME COLD AS THE
LOW MOVES E-NE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA ON WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA THEN
SW TO NICARAGUA/HONDURAS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W TO COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN
76W-80W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-
12N W OF 81W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS TONIGHT. THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE
BEFORE MOVING W OF THE AREA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS
MORNING WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NE OF THE ISLAND. THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA THEN SW INTO
THE CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E GIVING THE ISLAND MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LIMIT HEAVY RAIN...BUT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA
AND THE W ATLC W OF 70W WITH A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING
THE REGION NEAR 32N80W TO ACROSS FLORIDA JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE
CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR BERMUDA AND A
1011 MB SURFACE LOW JUST S OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N64W. HEAVY
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM
28N62W TO 32N61W AND N OF 30N BETWEEN 63W-66W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS TO THE SW EXTENDING FROM 26N67W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR
21N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N-
27N BETWEEN 60W-69W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING FROM 28N45W TO 24N50W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A NARROW UPPER
TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG LINE FROM 28N34W TO 23N40W. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF
45W ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH N OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. THE
FRONT WILL MEANDER N OF 30N THROUGH TUE WHEN THE GULF OF MEXICO
LOW MOVES INTO THE ATLC N OF THE AREA AND SENDS A COLD FRONT OFF
THE NE FLORIDA COAST REACHING FROM 31N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TUE
NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 291155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N36W TO 9N37W
MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS LOCATED BENEATH THE W SIDE
OF AN UPPER RIDGE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 36W-41W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 80W/81W FROM 11N-
22N MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE W
CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE
IS BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 76W-82W INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND E CUBA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 17N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 16N20W 9N19W TO 7N21W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N31W 7N39W TO 7N46W. CLUSTERS
OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN
15W-36W. THE NEAR-STATIONARY 1012 MB LOW IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 18N46W TO 15N48W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 45W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING E OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND S INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR 29N88W WITH A PAIR OF
UPPER RIDGES TO THE E AND W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA FROM JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE
INTO THE GULF NEAR 29N83W TO A NEWLY DEVELOPED 1012 MB LOW OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA CONTINUING 28N95W TO 25N97W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 82W-86W
AND N OF 27N E OF 89W TO OVER THE SE CONUS. A SECOND SHORTWAVE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG THE N COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF LINE
FROM 19N91W TO TAMPICO MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE
REMAINDER OF THE NW GULF N OF 22N W OF 89W. THE N PORTION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 23N TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. THE W PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME COLD AS THE
LOW MOVES E-NE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA ON WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA THEN
SW TO NICARAGUA/HONDURAS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W TO COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN
76W-80W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-
12N W OF 81W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS TONIGHT. THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE
BEFORE MOVING W OF THE AREA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS
MORNING WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NE OF THE ISLAND. THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA THEN SW INTO
THE CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E GIVING THE ISLAND MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LIMIT HEAVY RAIN...BUT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA
AND THE W ATLC W OF 70W WITH A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING
THE REGION NEAR 32N80W TO ACROSS FLORIDA JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE
CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR BERMUDA AND A
1011 MB SURFACE LOW JUST S OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N64W. HEAVY
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM
28N62W TO 32N61W AND N OF 30N BETWEEN 63W-66W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS TO THE SW EXTENDING FROM 26N67W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR
21N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N-
27N BETWEEN 60W-69W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING FROM 28N45W TO 24N50W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A NARROW UPPER
TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG LINE FROM 28N34W TO 23N40W. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF
45W ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH N OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. THE
FRONT WILL MEANDER N OF 30N THROUGH TUE WHEN THE GULF OF MEXICO
LOW MOVES INTO THE ATLC N OF THE AREA AND SENDS A COLD FRONT OFF
THE NE FLORIDA COAST REACHING FROM 31N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TUE
NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291152
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from near the coast of southern Mexico southeastward for several
hundred miles is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more
conducive for development during the next several days, and a
tropical depression could form later this week while the system
drifts west-northwestward or northwestward.  Regardless of
development, this system could produce locally heavy rains over
portions of southern Mexico that could cause flash floods and mud
slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Lewitsky


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291152
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from near the coast of southern Mexico southeastward for several
hundred miles is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more
conducive for development during the next several days, and a
tropical depression could form later this week while the system
drifts west-northwestward or northwestward.  Regardless of
development, this system could produce locally heavy rains over
portions of southern Mexico that could cause flash floods and mud
slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Lewitsky


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291152
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from near the coast of southern Mexico southeastward for several
hundred miles is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more
conducive for development during the next several days, and a
tropical depression could form later this week while the system
drifts west-northwestward or northwestward.  Regardless of
development, this system could produce locally heavy rains over
portions of southern Mexico that could cause flash floods and mud
slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Lewitsky


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291152
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from near the coast of southern Mexico southeastward for several
hundred miles is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more
conducive for development during the next several days, and a
tropical depression could form later this week while the system
drifts west-northwestward or northwestward.  Regardless of
development, this system could produce locally heavy rains over
portions of southern Mexico that could cause flash floods and mud
slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Lewitsky


000
ACPN50 PHFO 291145
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON SEP 29 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

$$






000
ACPN50 PHFO 291145
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON SEP 29 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

$$







000
WTPQ32 PGUM 290929
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
800 PM CHST MON SEP 29 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE STRENGTHENING AND STILL THREATENING THE
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN...
PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN...
PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND GUAM SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHANFONE.

SUMMARY OF 0700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.5N 150.5E

ABOUT 340 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 360 MILES EAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 380 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN AND
ABOUT 430 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW...290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 150.5 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND
14 MPH. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...PUTTING THE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...MAKING
IT A STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT 11 PM TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

POWELL








000
WTPQ32 PGUM 290929
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
800 PM CHST MON SEP 29 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE STRENGTHENING AND STILL THREATENING THE
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN...
PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN...
PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND GUAM SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHANFONE.

SUMMARY OF 0700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.5N 150.5E

ABOUT 340 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 360 MILES EAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 380 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN AND
ABOUT 430 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW...290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 150.5 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND
14 MPH. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...PUTTING THE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...MAKING
IT A STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT 11 PM TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

POWELL









000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290917
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON SEP 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 22.8N 117.5W 985 MB AT 0900 UTC SEP 29
MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS
80 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER.
RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY THEN DRIFT
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH RACHEL BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM
WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/ WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE N OF 12N ALONG 100W MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG
THE COAST OF MEXICO N OF 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. AS THE WAVE
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP S OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE THE AREA COULD SPAWN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS BROAD AREA OF WEATHER HAS A HIGH
CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 3-5 DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 14N94W TO 12N100W TO
12N110W...THEN RESUMES FROM 17N115W TO 13N130W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 13N130W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S AND 30 NM N OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BETWEEN 85W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...
RESIDUAL SWELL FROM A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
AFFECT WATERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 112W AND 125W...AND COMBINE WITH
SWELL GENERATED BY HURRICANE RACHEL...HIGHEST FROM 17N TO 27N
BETWEEN 113W AND 125W. RESIDUAL SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH EARLY TUE.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS PUSHING N-NE ACROSS THE
EQUATOR AND WILL COVER MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 11N BETWEEN 100W
AND 130W BY LATE TUE.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290917
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON SEP 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 22.8N 117.5W 985 MB AT 0900 UTC SEP 29
MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS
80 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER.
RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY THEN DRIFT
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH RACHEL BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM
WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/ WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE N OF 12N ALONG 100W MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG
THE COAST OF MEXICO N OF 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. AS THE WAVE
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP S OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE THE AREA COULD SPAWN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS BROAD AREA OF WEATHER HAS A HIGH
CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 3-5 DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 14N94W TO 12N100W TO
12N110W...THEN RESUMES FROM 17N115W TO 13N130W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 13N130W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S AND 30 NM N OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BETWEEN 85W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...
RESIDUAL SWELL FROM A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
AFFECT WATERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 112W AND 125W...AND COMBINE WITH
SWELL GENERATED BY HURRICANE RACHEL...HIGHEST FROM 17N TO 27N
BETWEEN 113W AND 125W. RESIDUAL SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH EARLY TUE.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS PUSHING N-NE ACROSS THE
EQUATOR AND WILL COVER MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 11N BETWEEN 100W
AND 130W BY LATE TUE.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290917
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON SEP 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 22.8N 117.5W 985 MB AT 0900 UTC SEP 29
MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS
80 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER.
RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY THEN DRIFT
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH RACHEL BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM
WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/ WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE N OF 12N ALONG 100W MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG
THE COAST OF MEXICO N OF 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. AS THE WAVE
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP S OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE THE AREA COULD SPAWN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS BROAD AREA OF WEATHER HAS A HIGH
CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 3-5 DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 14N94W TO 12N100W TO
12N110W...THEN RESUMES FROM 17N115W TO 13N130W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 13N130W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S AND 30 NM N OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BETWEEN 85W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...
RESIDUAL SWELL FROM A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
AFFECT WATERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 112W AND 125W...AND COMBINE WITH
SWELL GENERATED BY HURRICANE RACHEL...HIGHEST FROM 17N TO 27N
BETWEEN 113W AND 125W. RESIDUAL SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH EARLY TUE.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS PUSHING N-NE ACROSS THE
EQUATOR AND WILL COVER MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 11N BETWEEN 100W
AND 130W BY LATE TUE.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290917
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON SEP 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 22.8N 117.5W 985 MB AT 0900 UTC SEP 29
MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS
80 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER.
RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY THEN DRIFT
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH RACHEL BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM
WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/ WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE N OF 12N ALONG 100W MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG
THE COAST OF MEXICO N OF 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. AS THE WAVE
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP S OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE THE AREA COULD SPAWN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS BROAD AREA OF WEATHER HAS A HIGH
CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 3-5 DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 14N94W TO 12N100W TO
12N110W...THEN RESUMES FROM 17N115W TO 13N130W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 13N130W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S AND 30 NM N OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BETWEEN 85W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...
RESIDUAL SWELL FROM A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
AFFECT WATERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 112W AND 125W...AND COMBINE WITH
SWELL GENERATED BY HURRICANE RACHEL...HIGHEST FROM 17N TO 27N
BETWEEN 113W AND 125W. RESIDUAL SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH EARLY TUE.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS PUSHING N-NE ACROSS THE
EQUATOR AND WILL COVER MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 11N BETWEEN 100W
AND 130W BY LATE TUE.

$$
MUNDELL


000
WTPZ33 KNHC 290832
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
200 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

...RACHEL STILL A HURRICANE BUT LIKELY TO WEAKEN SOON...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 117.5W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RACHEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST.  RACHEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND RACHEL IS
FORECAST TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY LATER TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RACHEL
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




000
WTPZ33 KNHC 290832
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
200 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

...RACHEL STILL A HURRICANE BUT LIKELY TO WEAKEN SOON...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 117.5W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RACHEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST.  RACHEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND RACHEL IS
FORECAST TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY LATER TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RACHEL
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



000
WTPZ23 KNHC 290831
TCMEP3

HURRICANE RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
0900 UTC MON SEP 29 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 117.5W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 117.5W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 117.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 23.1N 117.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.3N 117.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.3N 117.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.2N 117.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 22.8N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 22.5N 119.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 117.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH





000
WTPQ32 PGUM 290658
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 18W ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
500 PM CHST MON SEP 29 2014

...TROPICAL STORM 18W STRENGTHENING AND THREATENING THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND GUAM SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF 18W.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.2N 151.0E

ABOUT 375 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 390 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 410 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 485 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN AND
ABOUT 400 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W...275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 18W WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
151.0 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM 18W IS MOVING TOWARD WEST AROUND 13 MPH. THIS MOTION
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...PUTTING THE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 18W IS EXPECTED
TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING IT A
STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 PM.

THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT 11 PM.

$$

POWELL








000
WTPQ32 PGUM 290658
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 18W ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
500 PM CHST MON SEP 29 2014

...TROPICAL STORM 18W STRENGTHENING AND THREATENING THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND GUAM SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF 18W.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.2N 151.0E

ABOUT 375 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 390 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 410 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 485 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN AND
ABOUT 400 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W...275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 18W WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
151.0 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM 18W IS MOVING TOWARD WEST AROUND 13 MPH. THIS MOTION
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...PUTTING THE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 18W IS EXPECTED
TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING IT A
STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 PM.

THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT 11 PM.

$$

POWELL







000
ACCA62 TJSJ 290558
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT LUNES 29 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA CERCA DE BERMUDA ESTA PRODUCIENDO
AGUACEROS DESORGANIZADOS Y TRONADAS. AUNQUE ESTE SISTEMA SE HA
TORNADO UN POCO MAS ORGANIZADO EN LAS PASADAS HORAS...SE ESPERA QUE
LOS VIENTOS SUPERIORES PERMENEZCAN DESFAVORABLES PARA UN DESARROLLO
SIGNIFICATIVO MIENTRAS LA BAJA SE MUEVA LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NOROESTE
O AL NORTE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. SIN IMPORTAR SI SE
DESARROLLA...ESTE SISTEMA PRODUCIRA LLUVIAS LOCALMENTE FUERTES Y
RAFAGAS DE VIENTO FUERTES SOBRE BERMUDAS DURANTE
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASH





000
ACPN50 PHFO 290545
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SUN SEP 28 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

$$








000
ACPN50 PHFO 290545
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SUN SEP 28 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

$$







000
AXNT20 KNHC 290535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 35W FROM 8N-
18N MOVING W 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS LOCATED BENEATH THE W SIDE
OF AN UPPER RIDGE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 33W-39W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 21N79W TO 10N80W
MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE W
CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE
IS BENEATH THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 76W-81W INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND E CUBA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 17N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 12N20W TO 8N22W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N26W 7N41W 7N48W TO 9N53W. CLUSTERS
OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN
11W-16W...FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 22W-35W...AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN
40W-48W. A NEAR-STATIONARY 1012 MB LOW IS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 15N45W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 43W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO NEAR SE LOUISIANA WITH A PAIR OF UPPER
RIDGES TO THE E AND W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA FROM JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE INTO THE
GULF NEAR 29N83W 29N90W TO A WEAKENING 1011 MB LOW OFF THE COAST
OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS NEAR 26N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N E OF 90W TO INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS
INCLUDING FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 84W-94W. A SECOND SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG THE N COAST OF THE
YUCATAN TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N ACROSS THE ENTIRE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. A SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT NEAR SE
LOUISIANA TONIGHT WHILE THE CURRENTLY LOW DISSIPATES. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA BY TUE NIGHT. THE N PORTION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 24N MON
THROUGH WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA THEN
SW TO NICARAGUA ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 9N ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA TO PANAMA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS
TONIGHT. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN
THROUGH MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING W OF THE AREA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY THE HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE ISLAND
WHILE SKIES REMAIN OVERCAST OVER THE ISLAND. THE UPPER TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA THEN SW INTO THE
CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E GIVING THE ISLAND MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL DECREASE SHOWERS MON THROUGH MID
WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA
AND THE W ATLC W OF 73W WITH A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING
THE REGION NEAR 32N80W TO ACROSS FLORIDA JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE
CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR BERMUDA AND A
1013 MB SURFACE LOW W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N66W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 62W-65W AND N OF
30N BETWEEN 60W-65W INCLUDING BERMUDA. THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND IS ALSO
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-25N
BETWEEN 60W-77W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N31W TO 18N40W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG LINE FROM 26N35W TO 29N30W. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF
60W ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. THE
FRONT WILL MEANDER N OF 30N THROUGH TUE WHEN THE FORECASTED LOW
ALONG THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE ATLC N OF THE AREA AND SENDS A
COLD FRONT OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST REACHING FROM 31N78W TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA TUE NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 290531
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from near the coast of southeastern Mexico southward for several
hundred miles is associated with an elongated area of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become conducive
for development over the next several days, and a tropical
depression could form around the middle part of the week while the
system drifts west-northwestward or northwestward just offshore of
the south-central coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABNT20 KNHC 290527
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure located near Bermuda is producing showers
and thunderstorms.  Although this system has become a little better
organized over the past several hours, upper-level winds are
expected to be unfavorable for significant development while the
low moves slowly northwestward or northward during the next few
days.  Regardless of development, this system will produce
locally heavy rains and strong gusty winds over Bermuda for the next
day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
WTPQ32 PGUM 290333 CCA
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 18W ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
200 PM CHST MON SEP 29 2014

...TROPICAL STORM 18W STRENGTHENING AND THREATENING THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TYPHOON WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TYPHOON WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND GUAM SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF 18W.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.7N 151.5E

ABOUT 420 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 440 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 530 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN AND
ABOUT 365 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W...275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 18W WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
151.5 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM 18W IS MOVING TOWARD WEST AROUND 13 MPH. THIS MOTION
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...PUTTING THE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 18W IS EXPECTED
TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING IT A
STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT 5 PM.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 PM.

$$

WROE







000
WTPQ32 PGUM 290333 CCA
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 18W ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
200 PM CHST MON SEP 29 2014

...TROPICAL STORM 18W STRENGTHENING AND THREATENING THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TYPHOON WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TYPHOON WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND GUAM SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF 18W.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.7N 151.5E

ABOUT 420 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 440 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 530 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN AND
ABOUT 365 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W...275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 18W WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
151.5 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM 18W IS MOVING TOWARD WEST AROUND 13 MPH. THIS MOTION
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...PUTTING THE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 18W IS EXPECTED
TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING IT A
STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT 5 PM.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 PM.

$$

WROE








000
WTPQ32 PGUM 290331
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 18W ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
200 PM CHST MON SEP 29 2014

...TROPICAL STORM 18W STRENGTHENING AND THREATENING THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TYPHOON WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TYPHOON WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND GUAM SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF 18W.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.7N 151.5E

ABOUT 420 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 440 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 530 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN AND
ABOUT 365 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W...275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 18W WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
151.5 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM 18W IS MOVING TOWARD WEST AROUND 13 MPH. THIS MOTION
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...PUTTING THE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 18W IS EXPECTED
TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING IT A
STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT 5 PM.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 PM.

$$

WROE







000
WTPQ32 PGUM 290331
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 18W ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
200 PM CHST MON SEP 29 2014

...TROPICAL STORM 18W STRENGTHENING AND THREATENING THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TYPHOON WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TYPHOON WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND GUAM SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF 18W.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.7N 151.5E

ABOUT 420 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 440 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 530 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN AND
ABOUT 365 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W...275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 18W WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
151.5 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM 18W IS MOVING TOWARD WEST AROUND 13 MPH. THIS MOTION
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...PUTTING THE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 18W IS EXPECTED
TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING IT A
STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT 5 PM.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 PM.

$$

WROE






000
WTPZ33 KNHC 290257
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...RACHEL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 117.6W
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RACHEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.6 WEST. RACHEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  RACHEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ON MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



000
WTPZ33 KNHC 290257
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...RACHEL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 117.6W
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RACHEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.6 WEST. RACHEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  RACHEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ON MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 290256
TCMEP3

HURRICANE RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
0300 UTC MON SEP 29 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 117.6W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 117.6W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 117.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.8N 117.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.0N 117.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.9N 117.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.8N 117.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.5N 118.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 22.4N 119.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 117.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 290256
TCMEP3

HURRICANE RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
0300 UTC MON SEP 29 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 117.6W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 117.6W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 117.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.8N 117.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.0N 117.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.9N 117.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.8N 117.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.5N 118.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 22.4N 119.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 117.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 290256
TCMEP3

HURRICANE RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
0300 UTC MON SEP 29 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 117.6W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 117.6W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 117.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.8N 117.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.0N 117.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.9N 117.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.8N 117.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.5N 118.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 22.4N 119.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 117.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 290256
TCMEP3

HURRICANE RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
0300 UTC MON SEP 29 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 117.6W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 117.6W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 117.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.8N 117.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.0N 117.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.9N 117.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.8N 117.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.5N 118.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 22.4N 119.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 117.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290240
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON SEP 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AT 28/0300 UTC...RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.5N 117.6W MOVING NNW
OR 355 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 80 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM NW SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM SE
SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. RACHEL MAY TEMPORARILY BECOME STATIONARY
IN 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD LATE MONDAY OR
TUESDAY. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND RACHEL SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY MONDAY. SEE
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP3/ WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO JUST WEST
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXTENDS INTO THE EPAC TO NEAR 12N97W.
THIS WAVE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO 97W AND 100W. THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
FORM A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES S OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ACTIVE
CONVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS IN THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
EVOLVING FEATURE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA OF WEATHER COULD BE THE NEXT TROPICAL
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THIS BROAD
AREA OF WEATHER HAS NOW A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 13N96W TO 10N105W TO
15N115W TO 12N130W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 12N130W TO 11N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 85W
AND88W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 95W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
RESIDUAL SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO AFFECT MAINLY THE N WATERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 112W
AND 125W. PART OF THIS SWELL EVENT IS INTERACTING WITH SWELL
GENERATING BY HURRICANE RACHEL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE AREA
FROM 17N TO 27N BETWEEN 113W AND 125W. RESIDUAL SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY TUE.

A NEW ROUND OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS PUSHING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE EQUATOR FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE...AND WILL COVER MUCH
OF THE AREA S OF 04N W OF 110W BY MON MORNING...AND S OF A LINE
FROM 03.4S100W TO 05N120W TO 06N140W BY TUE MORNING...WITH
BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290240
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON SEP 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AT 28/0300 UTC...RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.5N 117.6W MOVING NNW
OR 355 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 80 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM NW SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM SE
SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. RACHEL MAY TEMPORARILY BECOME STATIONARY
IN 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD LATE MONDAY OR
TUESDAY. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND RACHEL SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY MONDAY. SEE
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP3/ WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO JUST WEST
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXTENDS INTO THE EPAC TO NEAR 12N97W.
THIS WAVE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO 97W AND 100W. THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
FORM A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES S OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ACTIVE
CONVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS IN THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
EVOLVING FEATURE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA OF WEATHER COULD BE THE NEXT TROPICAL
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THIS BROAD
AREA OF WEATHER HAS NOW A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 13N96W TO 10N105W TO
15N115W TO 12N130W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 12N130W TO 11N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 85W
AND88W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 95W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
RESIDUAL SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO AFFECT MAINLY THE N WATERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 112W
AND 125W. PART OF THIS SWELL EVENT IS INTERACTING WITH SWELL
GENERATING BY HURRICANE RACHEL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE AREA
FROM 17N TO 27N BETWEEN 113W AND 125W. RESIDUAL SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY TUE.

A NEW ROUND OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS PUSHING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE EQUATOR FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE...AND WILL COVER MUCH
OF THE AREA S OF 04N W OF 110W BY MON MORNING...AND S OF A LINE
FROM 03.4S100W TO 05N120W TO 06N140W BY TUE MORNING...WITH
BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
WTPQ32 PGUM 290112 CCA
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 18W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1100 AM CHST MON SEP 29 2014

...TROPICAL STORM 18W STRENGTHENING AND MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND GUAM SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF 18W.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.5N 152.2E

ABOUT 470 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 485 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 480 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 575 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN AND
ABOUT 360 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W...275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 18W WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
152.2 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM 18W IS MOVING TOWARD WEST AT 13 MPH. THIS MOTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...PUTTING THE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS IN 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 18W IS EXPECTED
TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAKING IT A
STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
IN 48 HOURS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 PM.

THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT 5 PM.

$$

WROE





000
WTPQ32 PGUM 290112 CCA
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 18W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1100 AM CHST MON SEP 29 2014

...TROPICAL STORM 18W STRENGTHENING AND MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND GUAM SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF 18W.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.5N 152.2E

ABOUT 470 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 485 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 480 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 575 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN AND
ABOUT 360 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W...275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 18W WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
152.2 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM 18W IS MOVING TOWARD WEST AT 13 MPH. THIS MOTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...PUTTING THE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS IN 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 18W IS EXPECTED
TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAKING IT A
STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
IN 48 HOURS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 PM.

THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT 5 PM.

$$

WROE






000
WTPQ32 PGUM 290102
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 18W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1100 AM CHST MON SEP 29 2014

...TROPICAL STORM 18W STRENGTHENING AND MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND GUAM SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF 18W.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.5N 152.2E

ABOUT 470 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 485 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 480 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 575 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN AND
ABOUT 360 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W...275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 152.2 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W IS MOVING TOWARD WEST AT 13 MPH.
THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
PUTTING THE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS IN 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAKING
IT A STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
IN 48 HOURS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 6 PM.

$$

WROE





000
WTPQ32 PGUM 290102
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 18W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1100 AM CHST MON SEP 29 2014

...TROPICAL STORM 18W STRENGTHENING AND MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND GUAM SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF 18W.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.5N 152.2E

ABOUT 470 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 485 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 480 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 575 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN AND
ABOUT 360 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W...275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 152.2 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W IS MOVING TOWARD WEST AT 13 MPH.
THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
PUTTING THE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS IN 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAKING
IT A STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
IN 48 HOURS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 6 PM.

$$

WROE






000
WTPQ32 PGUM 290101 CCA
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 18W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1100 AM CHST MON SEP 29 2014

...TROPICAL STORM 18W STRENGTHENING AND MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND GUAM SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF 18W.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.5N 152.2E

ABOUT 470 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 485 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 480 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 575 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN AND
ABOUT 360 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW...275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 152.2 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W IS MOVING TOWARD WEST AT 13 MPH.
THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
PUTTING THE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS IN 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAKING
IT A STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
IN 48 HOURS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 6 PM.

$$

WROE






000
WTPQ32 PGUM 290101 CCA
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 18W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1100 AM CHST MON SEP 29 2014

...TROPICAL STORM 18W STRENGTHENING AND MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND GUAM SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF 18W.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.5N 152.2E

ABOUT 470 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 485 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 480 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 575 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN AND
ABOUT 360 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW...275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 152.2 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W IS MOVING TOWARD WEST AT 13 MPH.
THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
PUTTING THE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS IN 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAKING
IT A STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
IN 48 HOURS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 6 PM.

$$

WROE





000
AXNT20 KNHC 290002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
17N34W TO 7N34W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE SSMI TPW AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE GOES-R AIRMASS
PRODUCT SHOWS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR N OF THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT DEVOID OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N-
18N BETWEEN 31W-37W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N77W TO 9N78W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS
BENEATH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 70W-
73W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
9N20W TO 9N23W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N23W TO 10N28W TO 6N34W
TO 7N50W TO 10N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 18W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA AT 31N81W TO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 29N90W TO A 1010 MB LOW OFF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 26N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 81W-90W...AND FROM 23N-
27N BETWEEN 90W-94W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 94W-98W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO CONTINUED TO
PRODUCE CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT A SURFACE TROUGH TO BE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO S MEXICO. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N E OF 67W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST S
OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N74W ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE E... WHILE THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE ISLAND FROM 18N-20N
BETWEEN 70W-73W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING AND POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1012 MB LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 32N65W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
CENTER IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
28N-33N BETWEEN 55W-64W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 26N49W TO 23N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90
NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE E SEMICIRCLE. A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N19W. IN ADDITION OVER THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO
NEAR 21N67W PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N-26N
BETWEEN 63W-68W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
29N34W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 27W-33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 290002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
17N34W TO 7N34W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE SSMI TPW AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE GOES-R AIRMASS
PRODUCT SHOWS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR N OF THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT DEVOID OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N-
18N BETWEEN 31W-37W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N77W TO 9N78W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS
BENEATH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 70W-
73W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
9N20W TO 9N23W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N23W TO 10N28W TO 6N34W
TO 7N50W TO 10N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 18W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA AT 31N81W TO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 29N90W TO A 1010 MB LOW OFF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 26N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 81W-90W...AND FROM 23N-
27N BETWEEN 90W-94W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 94W-98W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO CONTINUED TO
PRODUCE CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT A SURFACE TROUGH TO BE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO S MEXICO. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N E OF 67W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST S
OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N74W ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE E... WHILE THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE ISLAND FROM 18N-20N
BETWEEN 70W-73W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING AND POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1012 MB LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 32N65W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
CENTER IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
28N-33N BETWEEN 55W-64W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 26N49W TO 23N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90
NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE E SEMICIRCLE. A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N19W. IN ADDITION OVER THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO
NEAR 21N67W PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N-26N
BETWEEN 63W-68W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
29N34W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 27W-33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
ACPN50 PHFO 282340
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SUN SEP 28 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

EVANS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 282340
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SUN SEP 28 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

EVANS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 282340
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SUN SEP 28 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

EVANS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 282340
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SUN SEP 28 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

EVANS






000
ACCA62 TJSJ 282317
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT DOMINGO 28 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA CERCA DE BERMUDA ESTA PRODUCIENDO
AGUACEROS DESORGANIZADOS Y TRONADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LOS VIENTOS EN
LOS NIVELES ALTOS PERMENEZCAN DESFAVORABLES PARA UN DESARROLLO
SIGNIFICATIVO DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS ESTE SISTEMA SE
MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NOROESTE O NORTE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR CANGIALOSI





000
ABNT20 KNHC 282314
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure located near Bermuda is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Upper-level winds are
expected to be unfavorable for significant development while this
system moves slowly northwestward or northward during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
ABNT20 KNHC 282314
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure located near Bermuda is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Upper-level winds are
expected to be unfavorable for significant development while this
system moves slowly northwestward or northward during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
ABNT20 KNHC 282314
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure located near Bermuda is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Upper-level winds are
expected to be unfavorable for significant development while this
system moves slowly northwestward or northward during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
ABNT20 KNHC 282314
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure located near Bermuda is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Upper-level winds are
expected to be unfavorable for significant development while this
system moves slowly northwestward or northward during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 282309
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from near the coast of southeastern Mexico southward for several
hundred miles is associated with an elongated area of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become conducive
for development over the next several days, and a tropical
depression could form around the middle part of the week while the
system drifts west-northwestward or northwestward just offshore of
the south-central coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 282309
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from near the coast of southeastern Mexico southward for several
hundred miles is associated with an elongated area of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become conducive
for development over the next several days, and a tropical
depression could form around the middle part of the week while the
system drifts west-northwestward or northwestward just offshore of
the south-central coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282201
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN SEP 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE RACHEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN MOVING
SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. AT 28/1500 UTC...RACHEL IS CENTERED
NEAR 21.7N 117.4W OR ABOUT 420 NM...765 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING N-NW OR 340 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER. RACHEL
MAY TEMPORARILY BECOME STATIONARY IN 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE
DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. STEADY WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RACHEL SHOULD BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM BY MONDAY. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/ WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO JUST WEST
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXTENDS INTO THE EPAC TO NEAR 12N96W.
THIS WAVE IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. THE WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AND FORM A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES S OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ACTIVE
CONVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS IN THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
EVOLVING FEATURE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA OF WEATHER COULD BE THE NEXT TROPICAL
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THIS BROAD
AREA OF WEATHER HAS NOW A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N77W TO 14N98W TO 11N105W THEN
CONTINUES SW OF HURRICANE RACHEL FROM 14N120W TO 12N130W. ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 12N130W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...
RESIDUAL SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO AFFECT MAINLY THE N WATERS N OF 17N W OF 112W. PART
OF THIS SWELL EVENT IS INTERACTING WITH SWELL GENERATING BY
HURRICANE RACHEL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE AREA FROM 17N TO 27N
BETWEEN 113W AND 125W. RESIDUAL SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH EARLY TUE.

HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE OLD FRONT HAS ENHANCED NW WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 30N. AT THE SAME
TIME...A LOW NEAR LAKE HAVASU ARIZONA IS TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 28N. AN EARLIER
ASCAT PASS SHOWED SW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KT N OF 29N. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH IN THE REGION BY LATE TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES
FARTHER NORTH. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS IS ALSO
NOTED FROM 18N TO 22N W OF 133W PER THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS.

A NEW ROUND OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS PUSHING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE EQUATOR FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE...AND WILL COVER MUCH
OF THE AREA S OF 04N W OF 110W BY MON MORNING...AND S OF A LINE
FROM 03.4S100W TO 05N120W TO 06N140W BY TUE MORNING...WITH
BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT.

$$
GR/CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282201
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN SEP 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE RACHEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN MOVING
SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. AT 28/1500 UTC...RACHEL IS CENTERED
NEAR 21.7N 117.4W OR ABOUT 420 NM...765 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING N-NW OR 340 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER. RACHEL
MAY TEMPORARILY BECOME STATIONARY IN 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE
DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. STEADY WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RACHEL SHOULD BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM BY MONDAY. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/ WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO JUST WEST
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXTENDS INTO THE EPAC TO NEAR 12N96W.
THIS WAVE IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. THE WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AND FORM A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES S OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ACTIVE
CONVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS IN THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
EVOLVING FEATURE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA OF WEATHER COULD BE THE NEXT TROPICAL
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THIS BROAD
AREA OF WEATHER HAS NOW A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N77W TO 14N98W TO 11N105W THEN
CONTINUES SW OF HURRICANE RACHEL FROM 14N120W TO 12N130W. ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 12N130W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...
RESIDUAL SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO AFFECT MAINLY THE N WATERS N OF 17N W OF 112W. PART
OF THIS SWELL EVENT IS INTERACTING WITH SWELL GENERATING BY
HURRICANE RACHEL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE AREA FROM 17N TO 27N
BETWEEN 113W AND 125W. RESIDUAL SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH EARLY TUE.

HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE OLD FRONT HAS ENHANCED NW WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 30N. AT THE SAME
TIME...A LOW NEAR LAKE HAVASU ARIZONA IS TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 28N. AN EARLIER
ASCAT PASS SHOWED SW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KT N OF 29N. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH IN THE REGION BY LATE TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES
FARTHER NORTH. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS IS ALSO
NOTED FROM 18N TO 22N W OF 133W PER THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS.

A NEW ROUND OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS PUSHING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE EQUATOR FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE...AND WILL COVER MUCH
OF THE AREA S OF 04N W OF 110W BY MON MORNING...AND S OF A LINE
FROM 03.4S100W TO 05N120W TO 06N140W BY TUE MORNING...WITH
BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT.

$$
GR/CHRISTENSEN



000
WTPQ32 PGUM 282131 CCA
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
730 AM CHST MON SEP 29 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W FORMS 540 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.5N 153.1E

ABOUT 540 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 550 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 570 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 630 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN AND
ABOUT 350 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW...295 DEGREES AT 21 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 153.1 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W IS MOVING TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST AT 21 MPH.
THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
PUTTING THE SYSTEM NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS IN 48
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAKING
IT A STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS IN 48 HOURS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM.

$$

WROE






000
WTPQ32 PGUM 282131 CCA
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
730 AM CHST MON SEP 29 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W FORMS 540 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.5N 153.1E

ABOUT 540 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 550 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 570 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 630 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN AND
ABOUT 350 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW...295 DEGREES AT 21 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 153.1 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W IS MOVING TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST AT 21 MPH.
THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
PUTTING THE SYSTEM NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS IN 48
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAKING
IT A STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS IN 48 HOURS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM.

$$

WROE





000
WTPQ32 PGUM 282056
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
655 AM CHST MON SEP 29 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W FORMS 540 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.5N 153.1E

ABOUT 540 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 550 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 570 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 630 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN AND
ABOUT 350 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW...295 DEGREES AT 21 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 153.1 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W IS MOVING TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST AT 21 MPH.
THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...PUTTING THE SYSTEM NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS IN 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAKING
IT A STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS IN 48 HOURS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM.

$$

WROE






000
WTPZ33 KNHC 282039
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...RACHEL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 117.4W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RACHEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.4 WEST. RACHEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION WITH A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  RACHEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ON MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 282039
TCMEP3

HURRICANE RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
2100 UTC SUN SEP 28 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 117.4W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 117.4W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 117.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.3N 117.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.6N 117.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.6N 117.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.5N 117.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 22.0N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 22.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 117.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





000
WTPZ23 KNHC 282039
TCMEP3

HURRICANE RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
2100 UTC SUN SEP 28 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 117.4W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 117.4W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 117.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.3N 117.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.6N 117.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.6N 117.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.5N 117.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 22.0N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 22.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 117.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTPZ33 KNHC 282039
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...RACHEL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 117.4W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RACHEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.4 WEST. RACHEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION WITH A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  RACHEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ON MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
16N31W TO 7N32W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH
A REGION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THAT ENHANCES
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 12N-
17N BETWEEN 29W-36W. THE GOES-R AIRMASS PRODUCT SHOW MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE REMAINDER WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS
DEVOID OF CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 22N75W TO 10N76W...MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS
BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH AND AN
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH ALONG DEEP LAYER MODERATE
MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N-16N
BETWEEN 73W-78W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS DEVOID OF
CONVECTION DUE IN PART TO STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND E PAC WATERS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N95W TO
12N96W...MOVING W AT 5 KT. A MIDDLE-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
SUPPORT THIS WAVE WHILE DEEP LAYER HIGH MOISTURE AND AN UPPER-
LEVEL DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 22N W OF 91W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO
5N22W TO 5N29W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N30W TO 4N41W TO 7N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-11N E OF 19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHERN GULF ALONG 29N83W TO 28N90W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR
26N96W. IN THE UPPER-LEVELS THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER MEXICO COVERS THE WESTERN GULF WHILE THE REMAINDER
BASIN AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ANOTHER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 26N82W. THIS RIDGES ARRANGEMENT IN
THE UPPER LEVELS IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT
ALONG DEEP LAYER HIGH MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 83W-95W AND IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. IN THE SW GULF...A MIDDLE-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
SUPPORT A TROPICAL WAVE. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BASIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHILE THE WAVE CONTINUES
TO MOVE W TO INLAND MEXICO AND THEN INTO THE PACIFIC WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SW OF HAITI EXTENDING A
TROUGH AXIS SW INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN AND NE ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO
THE SW N ATLC WATERS WHILE N-NE WIND FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER
WESTERN BASIN. THE LOW ALOFT SUPPORT A TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. A SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE SUPPORT TRADES OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BASIN WHILE WINDS OF 10 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
BY MONDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF HISPANIOLA WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND OFFSHORE
WATERS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVE WILL SHIFT WEST OF THE REGION...A
MOIST AIRMASS AND THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT
CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING AND
POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 30N80W TO 30N81W...ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT IN THE ATLC. A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS GENERATED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS SW INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND AN
ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 63W-73W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS N OF 28N BETWEEN 57W-64W. A BROAD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND SUPPORTS THREE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS WITH LITTLE TO NONE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 29N45W...A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 24N50W AND A
1015 MB LOW NEAR 14N43W. OTHERWISE...A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
16N31W TO 7N32W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH
A REGION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THAT ENHANCES
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 12N-
17N BETWEEN 29W-36W. THE GOES-R AIRMASS PRODUCT SHOW MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE REMAINDER WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS
DEVOID OF CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 22N75W TO 10N76W...MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS
BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH AND AN
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH ALONG DEEP LAYER MODERATE
MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N-16N
BETWEEN 73W-78W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS DEVOID OF
CONVECTION DUE IN PART TO STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND E PAC WATERS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N95W TO
12N96W...MOVING W AT 5 KT. A MIDDLE-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
SUPPORT THIS WAVE WHILE DEEP LAYER HIGH MOISTURE AND AN UPPER-
LEVEL DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 22N W OF 91W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO
5N22W TO 5N29W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N30W TO 4N41W TO 7N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-11N E OF 19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHERN GULF ALONG 29N83W TO 28N90W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR
26N96W. IN THE UPPER-LEVELS THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER MEXICO COVERS THE WESTERN GULF WHILE THE REMAINDER
BASIN AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ANOTHER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 26N82W. THIS RIDGES ARRANGEMENT IN
THE UPPER LEVELS IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT
ALONG DEEP LAYER HIGH MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 83W-95W AND IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. IN THE SW GULF...A MIDDLE-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
SUPPORT A TROPICAL WAVE. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BASIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHILE THE WAVE CONTINUES
TO MOVE W TO INLAND MEXICO AND THEN INTO THE PACIFIC WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SW OF HAITI EXTENDING A
TROUGH AXIS SW INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN AND NE ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO
THE SW N ATLC WATERS WHILE N-NE WIND FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER
WESTERN BASIN. THE LOW ALOFT SUPPORT A TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. A SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE SUPPORT TRADES OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BASIN WHILE WINDS OF 10 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
BY MONDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF HISPANIOLA WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND OFFSHORE
WATERS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVE WILL SHIFT WEST OF THE REGION...A
MOIST AIRMASS AND THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT
CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING AND
POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 30N80W TO 30N81W...ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT IN THE ATLC. A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS GENERATED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS SW INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND AN
ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 63W-73W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS N OF 28N BETWEEN 57W-64W. A BROAD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND SUPPORTS THREE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS WITH LITTLE TO NONE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 29N45W...A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 24N50W AND A
1015 MB LOW NEAR 14N43W. OTHERWISE...A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 281745
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 28 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA PEQUENA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA JUSTO AL OESTE DE BERMUDA
ESTA PRODUCIENDO AGUACEROS DESORGANIZADOS Y TRONADAS. VIENTOS EN LOS
NIVELES ALTOS SE ESPERAN PERMENEZCAN DESFAVORABLES PARA UN
DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS ESTE
SISTEMA SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NOROESTE O NORTE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 281745
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 28 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA PEQUENA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA JUSTO AL OESTE DE BERMUDA
ESTA PRODUCIENDO AGUACEROS DESORGANIZADOS Y TRONADAS. VIENTOS EN LOS
NIVELES ALTOS SE ESPERAN PERMENEZCAN DESFAVORABLES PARA UN
DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS ESTE
SISTEMA SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NOROESTE O NORTE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN




000
ACPN50 PHFO 281740
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SUN SEP 28 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

EVANS





000
ACPN50 PHFO 281740
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SUN SEP 28 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

EVANS






000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281734
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from near the coast of southeastern Mexico southward for several
hundred miles is associated with a broad area of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form around the middle
part of the week while the system drifts west-northwestward or
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281734
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from near the coast of southeastern Mexico southward for several
hundred miles is associated with a broad area of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form around the middle
part of the week while the system drifts west-northwestward or
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
ABNT20 KNHC 281734
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small area of low pressure located just west of Bermuda is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Upper-level
winds are expected to remain unfavorable for significant development
during the next few days while this system moves slowly
northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABNT20 KNHC 281734
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small area of low pressure located just west of Bermuda is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Upper-level
winds are expected to remain unfavorable for significant development
during the next few days while this system moves slowly
northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABNT20 KNHC 281734
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small area of low pressure located just west of Bermuda is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Upper-level
winds are expected to remain unfavorable for significant development
during the next few days while this system moves slowly
northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABNT20 KNHC 281734
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small area of low pressure located just west of Bermuda is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Upper-level
winds are expected to remain unfavorable for significant development
during the next few days while this system moves slowly
northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281543
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN SEP 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE RACHEL IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN WHILE CONTINUING TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. AT 28/1500 UTC...RACHEL IS CENTERED
NEAR 21.5N 117.2W OR ABOUT 410 NM...765 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING N-NW OR 340 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. RACHEL
MAY TEMPORARILY BECOME STATIONARY IN 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE
DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. STEADY WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RACHEL SHOULD BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM BY MONDAY. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/ WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXTENDS INTO THE EPAC TO NEAR 12N95W. THIS
WAVE IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
FORM A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES S OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ACTIVE
CONVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS IN THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
EVOLVING FEATURE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA OF WEATHER COULD BE THE NEXT TROPICAL
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THIS BROAD
AREA OF WEATHER HAS NOW A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 12N95W TO 10N104W TO
09N110W THEN CONTINUES SW OF HURRICANE RACHEL FROM 14N120W TO
12N130W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 12N130W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 92W AND 95W...AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 95W
AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 11N
BETWEEN 106W AND 109W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF 07N135W.

...DISCUSSION...
RESIDUAL SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO AFFECT MAINLY THE N WATERS N OF 17N W OF 112W. PART
OF THIS SWELL EVENT IS INTERACTING WITH SWELL GENERATING BY
HURRICANE RACHEL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE AREA FROM 17N TO 27N
BETWEEN 113W AND 125W. RESIDUAL SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH EARLY TUE.

HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE OLD FRONT HAS ENHANCED NW WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 30N. AT THE SAME
TIME...A LOW NEAR YUMA ARIZONA IS TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 28N. AN EARLIER
ASCAT PASS SHOWED SW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KT N OF 29N. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH IN THE REGION BY LATE TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES
FARTHER NORTH. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS IS ALSO
NOTED FROM 18N TO 22N W OF 133W PER THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS.

A NEW ROUND OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS PUSHING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE EQUATOR FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE...AND WILL COVER MUCH
OF THE AREA S OF 04N W OF 110W BY MON MORNING...AND S OF A LINE
FROM 03.4S100W TO 05N120W TO 06N140W BY TUE MORNING...WITH
BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281543
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN SEP 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE RACHEL IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN WHILE CONTINUING TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. AT 28/1500 UTC...RACHEL IS CENTERED
NEAR 21.5N 117.2W OR ABOUT 410 NM...765 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING N-NW OR 340 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. RACHEL
MAY TEMPORARILY BECOME STATIONARY IN 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE
DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. STEADY WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RACHEL SHOULD BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM BY MONDAY. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/ WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXTENDS INTO THE EPAC TO NEAR 12N95W. THIS
WAVE IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
FORM A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES S OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ACTIVE
CONVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS IN THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
EVOLVING FEATURE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA OF WEATHER COULD BE THE NEXT TROPICAL
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THIS BROAD
AREA OF WEATHER HAS NOW A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 12N95W TO 10N104W TO
09N110W THEN CONTINUES SW OF HURRICANE RACHEL FROM 14N120W TO
12N130W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 12N130W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 92W AND 95W...AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 95W
AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 11N
BETWEEN 106W AND 109W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF 07N135W.

...DISCUSSION...
RESIDUAL SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO AFFECT MAINLY THE N WATERS N OF 17N W OF 112W. PART
OF THIS SWELL EVENT IS INTERACTING WITH SWELL GENERATING BY
HURRICANE RACHEL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE AREA FROM 17N TO 27N
BETWEEN 113W AND 125W. RESIDUAL SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH EARLY TUE.

HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE OLD FRONT HAS ENHANCED NW WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 30N. AT THE SAME
TIME...A LOW NEAR YUMA ARIZONA IS TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 28N. AN EARLIER
ASCAT PASS SHOWED SW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KT N OF 29N. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH IN THE REGION BY LATE TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES
FARTHER NORTH. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS IS ALSO
NOTED FROM 18N TO 22N W OF 133W PER THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS.

A NEW ROUND OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS PUSHING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE EQUATOR FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE...AND WILL COVER MUCH
OF THE AREA S OF 04N W OF 110W BY MON MORNING...AND S OF A LINE
FROM 03.4S100W TO 05N120W TO 06N140W BY TUE MORNING...WITH
BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT.

$$
GR



000
WTPZ23 KNHC 281444
TCMEP3

HURRICANE RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
1500 UTC SUN SEP 28 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 117.2W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 117.2W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 117.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.0N 117.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.4N 117.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.3N 117.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.1N 117.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 21.3N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 21.0N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 20.5N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 117.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN





000
WTPZ23 KNHC 281444
TCMEP3

HURRICANE RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
1500 UTC SUN SEP 28 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 117.2W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 117.2W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 117.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.0N 117.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.4N 117.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.3N 117.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.1N 117.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 21.3N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 21.0N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 20.5N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 117.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN




000
WTPZ33 KNHC 281444
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...RACHEL BEGINNING TO WEAKEN WHILE CONTINUING TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 117.2W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RACHEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.2 WEST. RACHEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION WITH A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  RACHEL MAY TEMPORARILY BECOME STATIONARY IN 24
TO 36 HOURS BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RACHEL SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN




000
WTPZ33 KNHC 281444
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...RACHEL BEGINNING TO WEAKEN WHILE CONTINUING TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 117.2W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RACHEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.2 WEST. RACHEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION WITH A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  RACHEL MAY TEMPORARILY BECOME STATIONARY IN 24
TO 36 HOURS BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RACHEL SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN




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