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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221533
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N86W TO 1010 MB LOW
PRES NEAR 09N100W TO 09N111W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N111W TO
1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 15N118W TO 07N126W TO 08N140W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N E OF 80W...AND FROM 07N
TO 11N BETWEEN 99W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 111W AND 117W...
AND FROM 06N TO 10N W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES SW
TO OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THEN W-SW TO A
BASE NEAR 23N120W. A RIDGE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO
THE WEST OF THE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA
NEAR 29N135W. SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WITH A RELATED DRY AND STABLE
AIR MASS ARE NOTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA N OF 20N. S OF 20N...
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RELATIVELY MOIST WITH S-SW WINDS ALOFT E
OF 120W WITH CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS AND ASSOCIATED DEBRIS N OF
THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH ACTIVITY. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 15N86W IS PROVIDING THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH LOCATED
NEAR 31N139W TO NEAR 20N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS INDUCING
AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 09N-24N W OF 125W.
THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY. WITHIN THIS AREA OF TRADES...SEAS WILL
REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 15N118W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR
10N119W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE DRIFTING
WEST AND BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AREA OF TRADES AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS BY SUNDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN A BROAD AREA EAST OF THE TROUGH
FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 106W AND 116W...AND AN AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION SW OF THE LOW IN THE
VICINITY OF 09N121W.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS W OF
110W. THIS SWELL IS MIXING WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES RELATED
TO THE TRADES. A NEW WAVE OF NW SWELLS HAS REACHED THE NW CORNER
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL PROPAGATE SE COVERING THE
NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY MONDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS
FORECAST TO INITIATE TUESDAY MORNING REACHING POSSIBLE GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...ENSEMBLE MODELS
INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF STORM FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WITH
THIS EVENT...CURRENT NWPS GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS INTO A RANGE OF
25 TO 30 FT WHILE WAVEWATCH3 GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS RANGING
FROM 20 TO 25 FT. AS THE EVENT NEARS...CONTINUED MODIFICATION TO
THE GRIDDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE MADE.

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221533
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N86W TO 1010 MB LOW
PRES NEAR 09N100W TO 09N111W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N111W TO
1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 15N118W TO 07N126W TO 08N140W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N E OF 80W...AND FROM 07N
TO 11N BETWEEN 99W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 111W AND 117W...
AND FROM 06N TO 10N W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES SW
TO OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THEN W-SW TO A
BASE NEAR 23N120W. A RIDGE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO
THE WEST OF THE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA
NEAR 29N135W. SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WITH A RELATED DRY AND STABLE
AIR MASS ARE NOTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA N OF 20N. S OF 20N...
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RELATIVELY MOIST WITH S-SW WINDS ALOFT E
OF 120W WITH CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS AND ASSOCIATED DEBRIS N OF
THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH ACTIVITY. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 15N86W IS PROVIDING THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH LOCATED
NEAR 31N139W TO NEAR 20N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS INDUCING
AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 09N-24N W OF 125W.
THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY. WITHIN THIS AREA OF TRADES...SEAS WILL
REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 15N118W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR
10N119W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE DRIFTING
WEST AND BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AREA OF TRADES AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS BY SUNDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN A BROAD AREA EAST OF THE TROUGH
FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 106W AND 116W...AND AN AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION SW OF THE LOW IN THE
VICINITY OF 09N121W.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS W OF
110W. THIS SWELL IS MIXING WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES RELATED
TO THE TRADES. A NEW WAVE OF NW SWELLS HAS REACHED THE NW CORNER
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL PROPAGATE SE COVERING THE
NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY MONDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS
FORECAST TO INITIATE TUESDAY MORNING REACHING POSSIBLE GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...ENSEMBLE MODELS
INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF STORM FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WITH
THIS EVENT...CURRENT NWPS GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS INTO A RANGE OF
25 TO 30 FT WHILE WAVEWATCH3 GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS RANGING
FROM 20 TO 25 FT. AS THE EVENT NEARS...CONTINUED MODIFICATION TO
THE GRIDDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE MADE.

$$
HUFFMAN



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221151
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221151
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221151
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221151
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 221151
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
700 AM EST SABADO 22 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 221151
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
700 AM EST SABADO 22 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 221151
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
700 AM EST SABADO 22 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 221151
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
700 AM EST SABADO 22 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART




000
ABNT20 KNHC 221150
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ACPN50 PHFO 221130
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SAT NOV 22 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

$$

DWROE





000
AXNT20 KNHC 221116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N14W TO 7N30W 7N41W TO 6N57W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 4N-11N E OF 33W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N WEST OF 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB
HIGH OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA...WHICH EXTENDS A RIDGE SW ACROSS
FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SW
N ATLC TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUPPORT E-NE WIND FLOW OF 20 KT
WHILE A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF 90W PROVIDES FOR
E-SE WIND FLOW OF 15 KT. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN GULF
N OF 27N E OF 93W MAINTAINS FAIR WEATHER IN THIS REGION. MIDDLE-
TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS WELL
AS UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NE FROM THE E PAC WATERS
SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
GULF. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
WESTWARD TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUPPORT SIMILAR CONVECTION
THERE. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER VIRGINIA CONTINUES TO
DRIFT SE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...A COLD FRONT STARTS ENTERING
THE NW BASIN EARLY MONDAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THIS REGION HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 20 NM OF THE
COASTS OF BELIZE...HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NE BASIN ALONG WITH A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
BEING INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY MORNING...A BROAD AND MOIST AIRMASS STARTS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND ENHANCING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS AIRMASS
ACROSS THE ISLAND ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N55W SW TO 26N64W TO 24N72W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE
FRONT N OF 28N. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND 120 NM EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES BEING ENHANCED BY A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE
BASIN. ON THE FAR NE ATLC BASIN...A 1003 MB LOW IS NE OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N E OF 14W.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 20N. A
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER VIRGINIA MOVING SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ATLC WHERE IT
WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 221116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N14W TO 7N30W 7N41W TO 6N57W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 4N-11N E OF 33W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N WEST OF 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB
HIGH OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA...WHICH EXTENDS A RIDGE SW ACROSS
FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SW
N ATLC TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUPPORT E-NE WIND FLOW OF 20 KT
WHILE A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF 90W PROVIDES FOR
E-SE WIND FLOW OF 15 KT. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN GULF
N OF 27N E OF 93W MAINTAINS FAIR WEATHER IN THIS REGION. MIDDLE-
TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS WELL
AS UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NE FROM THE E PAC WATERS
SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
GULF. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
WESTWARD TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUPPORT SIMILAR CONVECTION
THERE. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER VIRGINIA CONTINUES TO
DRIFT SE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...A COLD FRONT STARTS ENTERING
THE NW BASIN EARLY MONDAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THIS REGION HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 20 NM OF THE
COASTS OF BELIZE...HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NE BASIN ALONG WITH A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
BEING INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY MORNING...A BROAD AND MOIST AIRMASS STARTS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND ENHANCING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS AIRMASS
ACROSS THE ISLAND ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N55W SW TO 26N64W TO 24N72W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE
FRONT N OF 28N. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND 120 NM EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES BEING ENHANCED BY A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE
BASIN. ON THE FAR NE ATLC BASIN...A 1003 MB LOW IS NE OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N E OF 14W.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 20N. A
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER VIRGINIA MOVING SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ATLC WHERE IT
WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 221116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N14W TO 7N30W 7N41W TO 6N57W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 4N-11N E OF 33W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N WEST OF 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB
HIGH OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA...WHICH EXTENDS A RIDGE SW ACROSS
FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SW
N ATLC TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUPPORT E-NE WIND FLOW OF 20 KT
WHILE A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF 90W PROVIDES FOR
E-SE WIND FLOW OF 15 KT. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN GULF
N OF 27N E OF 93W MAINTAINS FAIR WEATHER IN THIS REGION. MIDDLE-
TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS WELL
AS UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NE FROM THE E PAC WATERS
SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
GULF. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
WESTWARD TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUPPORT SIMILAR CONVECTION
THERE. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER VIRGINIA CONTINUES TO
DRIFT SE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...A COLD FRONT STARTS ENTERING
THE NW BASIN EARLY MONDAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THIS REGION HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 20 NM OF THE
COASTS OF BELIZE...HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NE BASIN ALONG WITH A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
BEING INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY MORNING...A BROAD AND MOIST AIRMASS STARTS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND ENHANCING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS AIRMASS
ACROSS THE ISLAND ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N55W SW TO 26N64W TO 24N72W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE
FRONT N OF 28N. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND 120 NM EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES BEING ENHANCED BY A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE
BASIN. ON THE FAR NE ATLC BASIN...A 1003 MB LOW IS NE OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N E OF 14W.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 20N. A
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER VIRGINIA MOVING SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ATLC WHERE IT
WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 221116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N14W TO 7N30W 7N41W TO 6N57W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 4N-11N E OF 33W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N WEST OF 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB
HIGH OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA...WHICH EXTENDS A RIDGE SW ACROSS
FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SW
N ATLC TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUPPORT E-NE WIND FLOW OF 20 KT
WHILE A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF 90W PROVIDES FOR
E-SE WIND FLOW OF 15 KT. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN GULF
N OF 27N E OF 93W MAINTAINS FAIR WEATHER IN THIS REGION. MIDDLE-
TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS WELL
AS UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NE FROM THE E PAC WATERS
SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
GULF. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
WESTWARD TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUPPORT SIMILAR CONVECTION
THERE. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER VIRGINIA CONTINUES TO
DRIFT SE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...A COLD FRONT STARTS ENTERING
THE NW BASIN EARLY MONDAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THIS REGION HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 20 NM OF THE
COASTS OF BELIZE...HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NE BASIN ALONG WITH A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
BEING INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY MORNING...A BROAD AND MOIST AIRMASS STARTS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND ENHANCING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS AIRMASS
ACROSS THE ISLAND ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N55W SW TO 26N64W TO 24N72W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE
FRONT N OF 28N. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND 120 NM EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES BEING ENHANCED BY A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE
BASIN. ON THE FAR NE ATLC BASIN...A 1003 MB LOW IS NE OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N E OF 14W.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 20N. A
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER VIRGINIA MOVING SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ATLC WHERE IT
WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 221115
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N14W TO 7N30W 7N41W TO 6N57W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 4N-11N E OF 33W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N WEST OF 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB
HIGH OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA...WHICH EXTENDS A RIDGE SW ACROSS
FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SW
N ATLC TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUPPORT E-NE WIND FLOW OF 20 KT
WHILE A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF 90W PROVIDES FOR
E-SE WIND FLOW OF 15 KT. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN GULF
N OF 27N E OF 93W MAINTAINS FAIR WEATHER IN THIS REGION. MIDDLE-
TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS WELL
AS UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NE FROM THE E PAC WATERS
SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
GULF. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
WESTWARD TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUPPORT SIMILAR CONVECTION
THERE. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER VIRGINIA CONTINUES TO
DRIFT SE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...A COLD FRONT STARTS ENTERING
THE NW BASIN EARLY MONDAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THIS REGION HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 20 NM OF THE
COASTS OF BELIZE...HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NE BASIN ALONG WITH A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
BEING INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY MORNING...A BROAD AND MOIST AIRMASS STARTS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND ENHANCING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS AIRMASS
ACROSS THE ISLAND ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N55W SW TO 26N64W TO 24N72W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE
FRONT N OF 28N. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND 120 NM EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES BEING ENHANCED BY A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE
BASIN. ON THE FAR NE ATLC BASIN...A 1003 MB LOW IS NE OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N E OF 14W.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 20N. A
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER VIRGINIA MOVING SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ATLC WHERE IT
WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220932
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N88W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB
NEAR 09N100W TO 10N114W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N114W TO LOW
PRES 1008 MB LOW NEAR 11N118W TO 08N125W TO 09N135W TO 08N140W.
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 96W AND 105W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 107W
AND 110W...FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 114W AND 122W AND FROM 08N TO
09N BETWEEN 136W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD EXTENDS SW FROM
NW MEXICO TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 25N112W TO 22N126W
THEN CONTINUES WESTWARD AS A SHEAR AXIS TO AN ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 23N144W. A RIDGE IS
BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS AND DOMINATES THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST REGION. SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WITH RELATED DRY AND
STABLE AIR MASS ARE NOTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA N OF 19N. S OF
19N...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST AS NOTED BY THE ACTIVE
CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY E OF 125W.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRES
LOCATED NEAR 30N138W TO NEAR 22N115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS INDUCING
AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 10N-23N W OF 130W
AND FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. THESE WINDS WILL
EXPAND SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD THROUGH LATE TODAY AS
HIGH PRES LIFTS NE AND STRENGTHENS SOME WITH THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGE BUILDING MORE FIRMLY OVER THE WATERS N OF 15N-16N. AT THE
SAME TIME...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE NE PART
OF THE AREA MAINLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W WITH BUILDING
SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN NW SWELL. BY LATE SUN...A RESIDUAL TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS FROM 10N-
22N W OF 130W WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 15N116W TO A 1008 MB LOW PRES
NEAR 11N118W TO 08N118W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 24-36 HRS. THE NIGHT CHANNEL VISIBLE IMAGES
STILL SHOW A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED MAINLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 11N TO 14N TO 110W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF NE WINDS IN THE 20-
25 KT RANGE W OF THE TROUGH FROM 12N TO 16N TO 123W WHILE AN
ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS OF 8-10 FT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
THE TROUGH AND LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH AN AREA
OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AHEAD OF IT...THAT IS FORECAST TO
MERGE WITH THE AREA OF THE TRADE WINDS MENTIONED ABOVE IN ABOUT
24 HOURS.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS W OF
110W. THIS SWELL EVENT IS MIXING WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES
RELATED TO THE TRADES. A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS WILL REACH THE FAR
NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS MORNING. THIS SET OF
SWELLS WILL THEN PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL
WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HRS WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT COVERING THE
AREA N OF ABOUT 08N W OF ABOUT 118W. THE HIGHEST SEAS CAN BE
FOUND AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH AND N OF 27N
BETWEEN 118W AND 125W.

GAP WINDS...EXPECT GAP WINDS OF 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO TODAY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW WITH
SEAS OF 6-7 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ON EARLY SUN.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS FORECAST
TO BE THE STRONGEST ONE SO FAR THIS SEASON WITH MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING NLY WINDS OF 50 KT BY WED MORNING. THE
GEFS PROBABILITIES OF GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 90
PERCENT WITH THE 22/0000 UTC RUN. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BUILDING SEAS UP TO 23-25 FT WITH THIS EVENT. EDITS WILL BE MADE
TO THE NDFD GRIDS AS NECESSARY PRIOR TO THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

$$
GR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 220603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR
10N14W TO 8N18W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 6N30W TO 6N40W
6N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-13N E OF 23W AND
WITHIN 130 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB
HIGH ON WEST VIRGINIA...WHICH EXTENDS SW ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OF THIS RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN GULF SUPPORT EASTERLY WIND OF 20-25 KT WHILE A
MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF 90W PROVIDES FOR E-SE WIND
FLOW OF 15-20 KT. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN GULF N OF
26N MAINTAINS FAIR WEATHER IN THIS REGION. MIDDLE- TO LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS WELL AS UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING NE FROM THE E PAC WATERS SUPPORT CLOUDINESS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER GULF. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SW TO WESTERN CUBA
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WEST
VIRGINIA CONTINUES TO DRIFT SE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...A COLD
FRONT WILL START ENTERING THE NW BASIN EARLY MONDAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THIS REGION HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. THE TAIL OF A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES OVER
WESTERN CUBA FROM WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 21N85W TO
16N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COASTS OF
BELIZE...HONDURAS...NICARAGUA AND PANAMA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NE BASIN ALONG WITH A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED FOR PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS THIS TONIGHT AND
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE SAT
MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
BEING INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY MORNING...A BROAD AND MOIST AIRMASS STARTS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND ENHANCING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS AIRMASS
ACROSS THE ISLAND ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 34N53W SW TO 27N65W TO 25N71W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SIMILAR SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BEING ENHANCED BY
A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ON
THE FAR NE ATLC BASIN...A 1004 MB LOW IS EAST OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS SUPPORTING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS N OF 27N E OF 13W.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 20N. A
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WEST VIRGINIA MOVING SE OVER THE NEXT THREE
DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
ACPN50 PHFO 220530
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

$$

DWROE






000
ACPN50 PHFO 220530
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

$$

DWROE





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220504
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220504
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ABNT20 KNHC 220503
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ABNT20 KNHC 220503
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220335
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N83W ALONG 10N91W TO 1010 MB
LOW NEAR 9N98W ALONG 7N108W TO 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N118W TO
8N124W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N132W TO
9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM N AND 150 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 93W-96W...WITHIN
150 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 101W-104W...WITHIN 60 NM S OF
MONSOON TROUGH 120W-123W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
134W-137W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD EXTENDING SW
FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER NW MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
TO NEAR 20N116W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 30N138W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING SE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH TO NEAR
25N122W. AS A RESULT...FLOW INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS
BRINGING SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WITH RELATED DRY AND STABLE AIR
ACROSS THE AREA N OF 19N. S OF 19N THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY
MOIST WITH ASSOCIATED ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ
AND MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH LOCATED
NEAR 30N140W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 20N110W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS INDUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA DESCRIBED FROM 9N-25N W OF
130W/134W. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD AND SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY SAT AS HIGH LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE BUILDING MORE FIRMLY S-SE OVER THE AREA. THESE
WINDS THEN DIMINISH EARLY ON SUN AS THE HIGH AND RIDGE WEAKEN.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 15N116W TO 1009 MB LOW LOW
NEAR 11N117W TO 08N118W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 108W-116W. THIS TROUGH AND LOW
WILL MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE LOW DISSIPATING IN 36 TO 48 HRS. THE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BECOME INTERMIXED WITH THE TRADE WINDS ABOVE
AND BY SUN EVENING MOST OF THE AREA W OF 115W WILL HAVE SEAS OF
8 FT OR GREATER.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE AREA WITH A SECOND SURGE MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE
AREA W OF 124W. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE SE MERGING WITH A S
SWELL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EQUATOR SAT AFTERNOON AS A
THIRD SWELL EVENT MOVES INTO THE NW SECTION. THIS WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE BASIN IN THE 14 TO 16 SEC PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
AND BE OFF THE COAST OF S CALIFORNIA BY SUN NIGHT AND COUPLED
WITH THE DEEP RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SPREADING S OVER THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE A
STRONG WITH THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY POSSIBLY REACH
MINIMAL STORM FORCE BY EARLY ON WED MORNING.

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220335
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N83W ALONG 10N91W TO 1010 MB
LOW NEAR 9N98W ALONG 7N108W TO 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N118W TO
8N124W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N132W TO
9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM N AND 150 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 93W-96W...WITHIN
150 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 101W-104W...WITHIN 60 NM S OF
MONSOON TROUGH 120W-123W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
134W-137W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD EXTENDING SW
FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER NW MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
TO NEAR 20N116W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 30N138W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING SE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH TO NEAR
25N122W. AS A RESULT...FLOW INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS
BRINGING SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WITH RELATED DRY AND STABLE AIR
ACROSS THE AREA N OF 19N. S OF 19N THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY
MOIST WITH ASSOCIATED ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ
AND MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH LOCATED
NEAR 30N140W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 20N110W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS INDUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA DESCRIBED FROM 9N-25N W OF
130W/134W. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD AND SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY SAT AS HIGH LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE BUILDING MORE FIRMLY S-SE OVER THE AREA. THESE
WINDS THEN DIMINISH EARLY ON SUN AS THE HIGH AND RIDGE WEAKEN.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 15N116W TO 1009 MB LOW LOW
NEAR 11N117W TO 08N118W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 108W-116W. THIS TROUGH AND LOW
WILL MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE LOW DISSIPATING IN 36 TO 48 HRS. THE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BECOME INTERMIXED WITH THE TRADE WINDS ABOVE
AND BY SUN EVENING MOST OF THE AREA W OF 115W WILL HAVE SEAS OF
8 FT OR GREATER.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE AREA WITH A SECOND SURGE MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE
AREA W OF 124W. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE SE MERGING WITH A S
SWELL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EQUATOR SAT AFTERNOON AS A
THIRD SWELL EVENT MOVES INTO THE NW SECTION. THIS WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE BASIN IN THE 14 TO 16 SEC PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
AND BE OFF THE COAST OF S CALIFORNIA BY SUN NIGHT AND COUPLED
WITH THE DEEP RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SPREADING S OVER THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE A
STRONG WITH THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY POSSIBLY REACH
MINIMAL STORM FORCE BY EARLY ON WED MORNING.

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220335
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N83W ALONG 10N91W TO 1010 MB
LOW NEAR 9N98W ALONG 7N108W TO 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N118W TO
8N124W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N132W TO
9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM N AND 150 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 93W-96W...WITHIN
150 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 101W-104W...WITHIN 60 NM S OF
MONSOON TROUGH 120W-123W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
134W-137W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD EXTENDING SW
FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER NW MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
TO NEAR 20N116W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 30N138W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING SE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH TO NEAR
25N122W. AS A RESULT...FLOW INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS
BRINGING SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WITH RELATED DRY AND STABLE AIR
ACROSS THE AREA N OF 19N. S OF 19N THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY
MOIST WITH ASSOCIATED ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ
AND MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH LOCATED
NEAR 30N140W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 20N110W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS INDUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA DESCRIBED FROM 9N-25N W OF
130W/134W. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD AND SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY SAT AS HIGH LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE BUILDING MORE FIRMLY S-SE OVER THE AREA. THESE
WINDS THEN DIMINISH EARLY ON SUN AS THE HIGH AND RIDGE WEAKEN.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 15N116W TO 1009 MB LOW LOW
NEAR 11N117W TO 08N118W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 108W-116W. THIS TROUGH AND LOW
WILL MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE LOW DISSIPATING IN 36 TO 48 HRS. THE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BECOME INTERMIXED WITH THE TRADE WINDS ABOVE
AND BY SUN EVENING MOST OF THE AREA W OF 115W WILL HAVE SEAS OF
8 FT OR GREATER.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE AREA WITH A SECOND SURGE MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE
AREA W OF 124W. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE SE MERGING WITH A S
SWELL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EQUATOR SAT AFTERNOON AS A
THIRD SWELL EVENT MOVES INTO THE NW SECTION. THIS WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE BASIN IN THE 14 TO 16 SEC PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
AND BE OFF THE COAST OF S CALIFORNIA BY SUN NIGHT AND COUPLED
WITH THE DEEP RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SPREADING S OVER THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE A
STRONG WITH THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY POSSIBLY REACH
MINIMAL STORM FORCE BY EARLY ON WED MORNING.

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220335
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N83W ALONG 10N91W TO 1010 MB
LOW NEAR 9N98W ALONG 7N108W TO 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N118W TO
8N124W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N132W TO
9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM N AND 150 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 93W-96W...WITHIN
150 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 101W-104W...WITHIN 60 NM S OF
MONSOON TROUGH 120W-123W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
134W-137W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD EXTENDING SW
FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER NW MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
TO NEAR 20N116W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 30N138W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING SE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH TO NEAR
25N122W. AS A RESULT...FLOW INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS
BRINGING SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WITH RELATED DRY AND STABLE AIR
ACROSS THE AREA N OF 19N. S OF 19N THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY
MOIST WITH ASSOCIATED ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ
AND MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH LOCATED
NEAR 30N140W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 20N110W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS INDUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA DESCRIBED FROM 9N-25N W OF
130W/134W. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD AND SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY SAT AS HIGH LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE BUILDING MORE FIRMLY S-SE OVER THE AREA. THESE
WINDS THEN DIMINISH EARLY ON SUN AS THE HIGH AND RIDGE WEAKEN.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 15N116W TO 1009 MB LOW LOW
NEAR 11N117W TO 08N118W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 108W-116W. THIS TROUGH AND LOW
WILL MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE LOW DISSIPATING IN 36 TO 48 HRS. THE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BECOME INTERMIXED WITH THE TRADE WINDS ABOVE
AND BY SUN EVENING MOST OF THE AREA W OF 115W WILL HAVE SEAS OF
8 FT OR GREATER.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE AREA WITH A SECOND SURGE MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE
AREA W OF 124W. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE SE MERGING WITH A S
SWELL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EQUATOR SAT AFTERNOON AS A
THIRD SWELL EVENT MOVES INTO THE NW SECTION. THIS WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE BASIN IN THE 14 TO 16 SEC PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
AND BE OFF THE COAST OF S CALIFORNIA BY SUN NIGHT AND COUPLED
WITH THE DEEP RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SPREADING S OVER THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE A
STRONG WITH THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY POSSIBLY REACH
MINIMAL STORM FORCE BY EARLY ON WED MORNING.

$$
PAW


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 212325
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
700 PM EST VIERNES 21 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 212325
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
700 PM EST VIERNES 21 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN





000
ABNT20 KNHC 212324
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212324
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven




000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212324
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABNT20 KNHC 212324
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven




000
AXNT20 KNHC 212316
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 9N13W
TO 8N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 6N33W TO 4N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N E OF 24W AND FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 47W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E U.S.
SUPPORTING A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SW OHIO NEAR
39N84W. THIS HIGH EXTENDS S INTO THE GULF PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER
AND 10-15 KT EASTERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND W CUBA FROM 22N84W
TO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N70W. ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE SE
GULF FROM 24N-25N BETWEEN 74W-82W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE S GULF MAINLY S OF
27N AS MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN MOVES NW.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-20 KT TRADEWINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC TO W CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE END OF THIS FRONT NEAR 22N85W TO 18N88W. AN UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 14N80W
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 14N64W SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND E CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 67W. THE
PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AFFECTING THEIR ADJACENT WATERS S
OF 10N. LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO MOVE W ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO
APPROACH THE ISLAND FROM THE E ENHANCING CONVECTION.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER THE W ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 34N56W TO 26N70W AND A STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM
THAT POINT TO W CUBA NEAR 22N85W. ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE SE
GULF FROM 24N-25N BETWEEN 74W-82W. TO THE E...A 1026 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N46W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN FROM 16W-58W. A PAIR OF
SURFACE LOWS ARE INTERACTING NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE 1004
MB ONE IS CENTERED NEAR 28N13N WHILE THE 1006 MB ONE IS NEAR
31N14W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS
NW AFRICA AND AFFECTING THE ADJACENT WATERS FROM 29N-33N...E OF
13W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION WHILE THE STATIONARY
FRONT DISSIPATES. THE LOWS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS WILL MERGE
AND MOVE E ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS NW AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 212316
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 9N13W
TO 8N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 6N33W TO 4N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N E OF 24W AND FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 47W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E U.S.
SUPPORTING A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SW OHIO NEAR
39N84W. THIS HIGH EXTENDS S INTO THE GULF PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER
AND 10-15 KT EASTERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND W CUBA FROM 22N84W
TO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N70W. ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE SE
GULF FROM 24N-25N BETWEEN 74W-82W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE S GULF MAINLY S OF
27N AS MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN MOVES NW.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-20 KT TRADEWINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC TO W CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE END OF THIS FRONT NEAR 22N85W TO 18N88W. AN UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 14N80W
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 14N64W SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND E CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 67W. THE
PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AFFECTING THEIR ADJACENT WATERS S
OF 10N. LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO MOVE W ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO
APPROACH THE ISLAND FROM THE E ENHANCING CONVECTION.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER THE W ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 34N56W TO 26N70W AND A STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM
THAT POINT TO W CUBA NEAR 22N85W. ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE SE
GULF FROM 24N-25N BETWEEN 74W-82W. TO THE E...A 1026 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N46W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN FROM 16W-58W. A PAIR OF
SURFACE LOWS ARE INTERACTING NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE 1004
MB ONE IS CENTERED NEAR 28N13N WHILE THE 1006 MB ONE IS NEAR
31N14W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS
NW AFRICA AND AFFECTING THE ADJACENT WATERS FROM 29N-33N...E OF
13W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION WHILE THE STATIONARY
FRONT DISSIPATES. THE LOWS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS WILL MERGE
AND MOVE E ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS NW AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
ACPN50 PHFO 212237
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

FOSTER






000
ACPN50 PHFO 212237
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

FOSTER





000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212143
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI NOV 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N83W ALONG 10N91W TO 1010 MB
LOW NEAR 9N97W ALONG 7N101W TO 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N118W TO
7N124W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N133W TO
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM
N AND 90 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 92W-95W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 86W-92W...WITHIN 210 NM S OF MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 115W-120W...AND WITHIN 75 NM OF THE ITCZ W OF
137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 100W-105W...WITHIN 120 NM N OF MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 104W-106W...AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN
127W-130W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD EXTENDING SW
FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA ACROSS N BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR
20N120W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 30N138W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS STRETCHING SE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH TO NEAR 25N126W. AS
A RESULT...FLOW INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS BRINGING
SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WITH RELATED DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE
AREA N OF 19N. S OF 19N THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH
ASSOCIATED ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ AND MONSOON
TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED
NEAR 30N140W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 22N115W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS INDUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA DESCRIBED FROM 9N-25N W OF
134W. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD AND SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY SAT AS HIGH LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGE BUILDING MORE FIRMLY S-SE OVER THE AREA. THESE WINDS THEN
DIMINISH EARLY ON SUN AS THE HIGH AND RIDGE WEAKEN. BY SUN
EVENING MOST OF THE AREA W OF 115W WILL HAVE SEAS OF 8 FT OR
GREATER.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 14N115W TO THE 1009 MB LOW
NEAR 11N118W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 112W-115W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 11N-16N
BETWEEN 107W-115W. THIS TROUGH AND LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD WITH
THE LOW DISSIPATING IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BECOME INTERMIXED WITH THE TRADE WINDS ABOVE.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE AREA WITH A SECOND SURGE MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE
AREA W OF 124W. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE SE MERGING WITH A S
SWELL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EQUATOR SAT AFTERNOON AS A
THIRD SWELL EVENT MOVES INTO THE NW SECTION. THIS WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE BASIN IN THE 14 TO 16 SEC PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS FORECAST
TO BE A STRONGER ONE. SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY
POSSIBLY REACH MINIMAL STORM FORCE BY EARLY ON WED MORNING.
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BUILDING SEAS UP TO 20-24 FT WITH
THIS EVENT. EDITS WILL BE MADE TO THE NDFD GRIDS AS NECESSARY
PRIOR TO THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212143
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI NOV 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N83W ALONG 10N91W TO 1010 MB
LOW NEAR 9N97W ALONG 7N101W TO 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N118W TO
7N124W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N133W TO
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM
N AND 90 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 92W-95W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 86W-92W...WITHIN 210 NM S OF MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 115W-120W...AND WITHIN 75 NM OF THE ITCZ W OF
137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 100W-105W...WITHIN 120 NM N OF MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 104W-106W...AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN
127W-130W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD EXTENDING SW
FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA ACROSS N BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR
20N120W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 30N138W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS STRETCHING SE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH TO NEAR 25N126W. AS
A RESULT...FLOW INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS BRINGING
SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WITH RELATED DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE
AREA N OF 19N. S OF 19N THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH
ASSOCIATED ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ AND MONSOON
TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED
NEAR 30N140W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 22N115W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS INDUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA DESCRIBED FROM 9N-25N W OF
134W. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD AND SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY SAT AS HIGH LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGE BUILDING MORE FIRMLY S-SE OVER THE AREA. THESE WINDS THEN
DIMINISH EARLY ON SUN AS THE HIGH AND RIDGE WEAKEN. BY SUN
EVENING MOST OF THE AREA W OF 115W WILL HAVE SEAS OF 8 FT OR
GREATER.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 14N115W TO THE 1009 MB LOW
NEAR 11N118W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 112W-115W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 11N-16N
BETWEEN 107W-115W. THIS TROUGH AND LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD WITH
THE LOW DISSIPATING IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BECOME INTERMIXED WITH THE TRADE WINDS ABOVE.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE AREA WITH A SECOND SURGE MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE
AREA W OF 124W. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE SE MERGING WITH A S
SWELL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EQUATOR SAT AFTERNOON AS A
THIRD SWELL EVENT MOVES INTO THE NW SECTION. THIS WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE BASIN IN THE 14 TO 16 SEC PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS FORECAST
TO BE A STRONGER ONE. SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY
POSSIBLY REACH MINIMAL STORM FORCE BY EARLY ON WED MORNING.
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BUILDING SEAS UP TO 20-24 FT WITH
THIS EVENT. EDITS WILL BE MADE TO THE NDFD GRIDS AS NECESSARY
PRIOR TO THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212143
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI NOV 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N83W ALONG 10N91W TO 1010 MB
LOW NEAR 9N97W ALONG 7N101W TO 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N118W TO
7N124W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N133W TO
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM
N AND 90 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 92W-95W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 86W-92W...WITHIN 210 NM S OF MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 115W-120W...AND WITHIN 75 NM OF THE ITCZ W OF
137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 100W-105W...WITHIN 120 NM N OF MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 104W-106W...AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN
127W-130W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD EXTENDING SW
FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA ACROSS N BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR
20N120W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 30N138W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS STRETCHING SE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH TO NEAR 25N126W. AS
A RESULT...FLOW INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS BRINGING
SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WITH RELATED DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE
AREA N OF 19N. S OF 19N THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH
ASSOCIATED ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ AND MONSOON
TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED
NEAR 30N140W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 22N115W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS INDUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA DESCRIBED FROM 9N-25N W OF
134W. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD AND SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY SAT AS HIGH LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGE BUILDING MORE FIRMLY S-SE OVER THE AREA. THESE WINDS THEN
DIMINISH EARLY ON SUN AS THE HIGH AND RIDGE WEAKEN. BY SUN
EVENING MOST OF THE AREA W OF 115W WILL HAVE SEAS OF 8 FT OR
GREATER.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 14N115W TO THE 1009 MB LOW
NEAR 11N118W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 112W-115W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 11N-16N
BETWEEN 107W-115W. THIS TROUGH AND LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD WITH
THE LOW DISSIPATING IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BECOME INTERMIXED WITH THE TRADE WINDS ABOVE.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE AREA WITH A SECOND SURGE MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE
AREA W OF 124W. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE SE MERGING WITH A S
SWELL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EQUATOR SAT AFTERNOON AS A
THIRD SWELL EVENT MOVES INTO THE NW SECTION. THIS WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE BASIN IN THE 14 TO 16 SEC PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS FORECAST
TO BE A STRONGER ONE. SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY
POSSIBLY REACH MINIMAL STORM FORCE BY EARLY ON WED MORNING.
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BUILDING SEAS UP TO 20-24 FT WITH
THIS EVENT. EDITS WILL BE MADE TO THE NDFD GRIDS AS NECESSARY
PRIOR TO THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 211750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 9N13W
TO 7N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N16W TO 5N30W TO TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 11W-23W...AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 23W-48W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-13N
BETWEEN 48W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA NEAR 38N84W
PRODUCING 10-15 KT EASTERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND W CUBA
FROM 24N80W TO 22N84W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND S FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N E OF 82W.
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 23N-
28N E OF 85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF
TEXAS N OF CORPUS CHRISTI EXTENDING 60 NM OFFSHORE. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO
FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 93W-99W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS
PRODUCING SW FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE S GULF S OF
25N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE N GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SPREAD OVER THE S GULF S OF
27N WITH SURFACE RETURN FLOW.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A STATIONARY
FRONT IS OVER W CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM 22N84W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N88W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
NEAR 14N65W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES E OF 62W.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF JAMAICA NEAR 14N79W WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION
TO SPREAD OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND SE CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY FAR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ISLAND. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N63W TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM N OF FRONT. A 1026 NM HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N45W. A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N14W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 30N14W
ENHANCING SHOWERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT
TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 211750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 9N13W
TO 7N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N16W TO 5N30W TO TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 11W-23W...AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 23W-48W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-13N
BETWEEN 48W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA NEAR 38N84W
PRODUCING 10-15 KT EASTERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND W CUBA
FROM 24N80W TO 22N84W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND S FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N E OF 82W.
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 23N-
28N E OF 85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF
TEXAS N OF CORPUS CHRISTI EXTENDING 60 NM OFFSHORE. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO
FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 93W-99W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS
PRODUCING SW FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE S GULF S OF
25N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE N GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SPREAD OVER THE S GULF S OF
27N WITH SURFACE RETURN FLOW.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A STATIONARY
FRONT IS OVER W CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM 22N84W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N88W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
NEAR 14N65W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES E OF 62W.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF JAMAICA NEAR 14N79W WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION
TO SPREAD OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND SE CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY FAR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ISLAND. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N63W TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM N OF FRONT. A 1026 NM HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N45W. A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N14W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 30N14W
ENHANCING SHOWERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT
TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
ACPN50 PHFO 211745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

FOSTER





000
ACPN50 PHFO 211745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

FOSTER





000
ACPN50 PHFO 211745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

FOSTER





000
ACPN50 PHFO 211745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

FOSTER





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211732
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211732
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211732
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211732
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 211729
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
100 PM EST VIERNES 21 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 211729
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
100 PM EST VIERNES 21 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 211729
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
100 PM EST VIERNES 21 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 211729
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
100 PM EST VIERNES 21 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA




000
ABNT20 KNHC 211728
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABNT20 KNHC 211728
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211605
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI NOV 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 10N90W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 08N96W 1010 MB TO 08N105W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N117W 1009 MB
TO 07N125W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N125W TO 08N131W TO BEYOND
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 88W-94W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 96W-
101W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 101W-104W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 82W-
88W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ W OF 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD EXTENDS SW FROM
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 23N121W...THEN CONTINUES
WESTWARD AS A SHEAR AXIS TO AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW JUST W OF THE
AREA AT 24N142W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED NNW OF THE LOW
AT 29N143W WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SEWD IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH TO NEAR 25N125W. AS A RESULT...CONFLUENT FLOW INTO THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH IS BRINGING SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WITH RELATED
DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE AREA N OF 19N. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATOCUMLUS CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING SSW
N OF 17N W OF 126N...AND ALSO N OF 19N NW OF LINE FROM 19N121W
TO COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS...IS
NOTED ON WATER SPILLING S AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE...AND INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA NEAR 26N119W. S OF 19N...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY
MOIST AS NOTED BY THE ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ
AND MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS
HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY E OF 130W.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED AT
30N141W TO NEAR 21N119W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS INDUCING AN AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER AN AREA DESCRIBED FROM 10N-23N
W OF 130W. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND
EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY SAT AS HIGH LIFTS NE AND STRENGTHENS SOME
WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE BUILDING MORE FIRMLY SSE OVER THE
AREA. THESE WINDS THEN DIMINISH EARLY ON SUN AS THE HIGH AND
RIDGE WEAKEN...EXCEPT FROM 09N-15N W OF 133W WHERE A RESIDUAL
TIGHT GRADEINT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS
THERE WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT.

A TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 15N114W TO LOW PRES OF 1009 MB NEAR
11N117W AND TO 09N118W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 36-48 HRS. FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEAL THE WEAK CYCLONIC SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE LOW...AND
LOW CLOUDS STREAMING TO THE NW E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...AND TO THE
SW W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 110W-
115W....AND WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 11N108W TO 12N110W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM LATE LAST NIGHT SHOWED NE WINDS IN THE
20-25 KT RANGE FROM 12N TO 16N W OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO 120W.
THIS TROUGH AND LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD WITH AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS AHEAD OF IT...THAT IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH THE
AREA OF THE TRADE WINDS MENTIONED ABOVE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND AT
WHICH TIME TO LOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LOST ITS IDENTITY.

WITH RESPECT TO MARINE ISSUES...LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS DOMINATE
MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 124W. THIS SWELL EVENT IS
MIXING WITH SWELLS FROM THE S THAT HAVE BEEN LINGERING SINCE THE
PAST FEW DAYS. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A NEW SET OF NW
SWELLS WILL REACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY
SAT MORNING. THIS SET OF SWELLS WILL THEN PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS
THE NW AND N CENTRAL WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HRS WITH SEAS TO
9 FT COVERING THE AREA N OF ABOUT 09N W OF ABOUT 118W.

GAP WINDS...N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS LOWERING TO LESS THAN 8 FT.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS FORECAST
TO BE A STRONGER ONE. SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY
POSSIBLY REACH MINIMAL STORM FORCE BY EARLY ON WED MORNING.
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BUILDING SEAS UP TO 20-24 FT WITH
THIS EVENT. EDITS WILL BE MADE TO THE NDFD GRIDS AS NECESSARY
PRIOR TO THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211605
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI NOV 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 10N90W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 08N96W 1010 MB TO 08N105W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N117W 1009 MB
TO 07N125W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N125W TO 08N131W TO BEYOND
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 88W-94W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 96W-
101W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 101W-104W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 82W-
88W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ W OF 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD EXTENDS SW FROM
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 23N121W...THEN CONTINUES
WESTWARD AS A SHEAR AXIS TO AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW JUST W OF THE
AREA AT 24N142W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED NNW OF THE LOW
AT 29N143W WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SEWD IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH TO NEAR 25N125W. AS A RESULT...CONFLUENT FLOW INTO THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH IS BRINGING SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WITH RELATED
DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE AREA N OF 19N. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATOCUMLUS CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING SSW
N OF 17N W OF 126N...AND ALSO N OF 19N NW OF LINE FROM 19N121W
TO COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS...IS
NOTED ON WATER SPILLING S AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE...AND INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA NEAR 26N119W. S OF 19N...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY
MOIST AS NOTED BY THE ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ
AND MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS
HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY E OF 130W.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED AT
30N141W TO NEAR 21N119W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS INDUCING AN AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER AN AREA DESCRIBED FROM 10N-23N
W OF 130W. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND
EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY SAT AS HIGH LIFTS NE AND STRENGTHENS SOME
WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE BUILDING MORE FIRMLY SSE OVER THE
AREA. THESE WINDS THEN DIMINISH EARLY ON SUN AS THE HIGH AND
RIDGE WEAKEN...EXCEPT FROM 09N-15N W OF 133W WHERE A RESIDUAL
TIGHT GRADEINT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS
THERE WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT.

A TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 15N114W TO LOW PRES OF 1009 MB NEAR
11N117W AND TO 09N118W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 36-48 HRS. FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEAL THE WEAK CYCLONIC SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE LOW...AND
LOW CLOUDS STREAMING TO THE NW E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...AND TO THE
SW W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 110W-
115W....AND WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 11N108W TO 12N110W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM LATE LAST NIGHT SHOWED NE WINDS IN THE
20-25 KT RANGE FROM 12N TO 16N W OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO 120W.
THIS TROUGH AND LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD WITH AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS AHEAD OF IT...THAT IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH THE
AREA OF THE TRADE WINDS MENTIONED ABOVE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND AT
WHICH TIME TO LOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LOST ITS IDENTITY.

WITH RESPECT TO MARINE ISSUES...LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS DOMINATE
MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 124W. THIS SWELL EVENT IS
MIXING WITH SWELLS FROM THE S THAT HAVE BEEN LINGERING SINCE THE
PAST FEW DAYS. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A NEW SET OF NW
SWELLS WILL REACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY
SAT MORNING. THIS SET OF SWELLS WILL THEN PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS
THE NW AND N CENTRAL WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HRS WITH SEAS TO
9 FT COVERING THE AREA N OF ABOUT 09N W OF ABOUT 118W.

GAP WINDS...N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS LOWERING TO LESS THAN 8 FT.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS FORECAST
TO BE A STRONGER ONE. SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY
POSSIBLY REACH MINIMAL STORM FORCE BY EARLY ON WED MORNING.
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BUILDING SEAS UP TO 20-24 FT WITH
THIS EVENT. EDITS WILL BE MADE TO THE NDFD GRIDS AS NECESSARY
PRIOR TO THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXNT20 KNHC 211158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA AND
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 6N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N20W
TO 4N35W 5N40W AND 5N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 9W
AND 24W...AND FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 24W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST OF 31N77W 26N90W 23N98W.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE COVER THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE 31N77W 23N98W LINE.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA 1026 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KXIH...
KVBS...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...KGBK...KATP...KIPN...AND
KIKT...AND KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...AREAS OF RAIN...AND PATCHY FOG COVER
THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
BEING OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA.
VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 2 MILES AND FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN GULF
SHORES ALABAMA...AND IN PENSACOLA FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE FORT MYERS FLORIDA
METROPOLITAN AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING OBSERVED IN NAPLES
FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED FROM HOMESTEAD
FLORIDA TO FORT LAUDERDALE.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 32N60W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 32N60W TO 30N65W 27N70W...TO THE BAHAMAS AND
ANDROS ISLAND...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 23N81W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 21N84W. A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 21N84W TO 19N86W TO 16N88W IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD TO HONDURAS FROM 85W WESTWARD TO LAND. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N53W TO 26N70W 23N80W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 32N53W 23N80W LINE.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 13N64W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 13N64W
CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N
IN VENEZUELA TO 25N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 56W AND 71W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 59W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO
17N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W
EASTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
20N TO 29N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N79W...ABOUT 90 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN
66W AND 84W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.78 IN HAVANA
CUBA...0.87 IN CURACAO...0.40 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.15 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA...
BEYOND 86W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
12N SOUTHWARD FROM 76W WESTWARD. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IS
IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN OF WESTERN
PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA BETWEEN 81W AND 86W.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N79W...ABOUT 90 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N64W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 13N64W CENTER
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N IN
VENEZUELA TO 25N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 56W AND 71W.
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 17N79W
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS MERGING WITH EAST-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 13N64W CYCLONIC CENTER...AND THEN
MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
APPEARS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...BETWEEN THE 14N63W CYCLONIC
CENTER AND JAMAICA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED
FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS
BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. THE WIND FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY TOWARD THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER EVENTUALLY SHIFTS TO A
POSITION THAT IS TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH
HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
CUBA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS HISPANIOLA WILL BE
ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CANARY
ISLAND 15N28W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N20W...TO THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND 13N30W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM
13N30W 16N40W AND 18N44W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1003 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N15W IN THE CANARY ISLANDS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE INLAND AND IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 7W AND 15W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 21N NORTHWARD BETWEEN LAND
AND 25W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.35 IN
BERMUDA.

A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N45W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 70W...AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS ALONG 32N57W 26N74W...
BEYOND 23N80W AT THE COAST OF CUBA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 211158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA AND
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 6N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N20W
TO 4N35W 5N40W AND 5N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 9W
AND 24W...AND FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 24W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST OF 31N77W 26N90W 23N98W.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE COVER THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE 31N77W 23N98W LINE.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA 1026 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KXIH...
KVBS...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...KGBK...KATP...KIPN...AND
KIKT...AND KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...AREAS OF RAIN...AND PATCHY FOG COVER
THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
BEING OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA.
VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 2 MILES AND FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN GULF
SHORES ALABAMA...AND IN PENSACOLA FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE FORT MYERS FLORIDA
METROPOLITAN AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING OBSERVED IN NAPLES
FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED FROM HOMESTEAD
FLORIDA TO FORT LAUDERDALE.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 32N60W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 32N60W TO 30N65W 27N70W...TO THE BAHAMAS AND
ANDROS ISLAND...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 23N81W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 21N84W. A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 21N84W TO 19N86W TO 16N88W IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD TO HONDURAS FROM 85W WESTWARD TO LAND. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N53W TO 26N70W 23N80W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 32N53W 23N80W LINE.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 13N64W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 13N64W
CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N
IN VENEZUELA TO 25N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 56W AND 71W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 59W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO
17N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W
EASTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
20N TO 29N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N79W...ABOUT 90 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN
66W AND 84W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.78 IN HAVANA
CUBA...0.87 IN CURACAO...0.40 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.15 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA...
BEYOND 86W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
12N SOUTHWARD FROM 76W WESTWARD. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IS
IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN OF WESTERN
PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA BETWEEN 81W AND 86W.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N79W...ABOUT 90 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N64W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 13N64W CENTER
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N IN
VENEZUELA TO 25N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 56W AND 71W.
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 17N79W
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS MERGING WITH EAST-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 13N64W CYCLONIC CENTER...AND THEN
MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
APPEARS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...BETWEEN THE 14N63W CYCLONIC
CENTER AND JAMAICA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED
FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS
BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. THE WIND FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY TOWARD THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER EVENTUALLY SHIFTS TO A
POSITION THAT IS TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH
HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
CUBA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS HISPANIOLA WILL BE
ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CANARY
ISLAND 15N28W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N20W...TO THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND 13N30W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM
13N30W 16N40W AND 18N44W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1003 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N15W IN THE CANARY ISLANDS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE INLAND AND IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 7W AND 15W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 21N NORTHWARD BETWEEN LAND
AND 25W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.35 IN
BERMUDA.

A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N45W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 70W...AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS ALONG 32N57W 26N74W...
BEYOND 23N80W AT THE COAST OF CUBA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 211158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA AND
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 6N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N20W
TO 4N35W 5N40W AND 5N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 9W
AND 24W...AND FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 24W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST OF 31N77W 26N90W 23N98W.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE COVER THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE 31N77W 23N98W LINE.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA 1026 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KXIH...
KVBS...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...KGBK...KATP...KIPN...AND
KIKT...AND KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...AREAS OF RAIN...AND PATCHY FOG COVER
THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
BEING OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA.
VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 2 MILES AND FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN GULF
SHORES ALABAMA...AND IN PENSACOLA FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE FORT MYERS FLORIDA
METROPOLITAN AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING OBSERVED IN NAPLES
FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED FROM HOMESTEAD
FLORIDA TO FORT LAUDERDALE.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 32N60W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 32N60W TO 30N65W 27N70W...TO THE BAHAMAS AND
ANDROS ISLAND...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 23N81W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 21N84W. A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 21N84W TO 19N86W TO 16N88W IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD TO HONDURAS FROM 85W WESTWARD TO LAND. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N53W TO 26N70W 23N80W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 32N53W 23N80W LINE.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 13N64W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 13N64W
CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N
IN VENEZUELA TO 25N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 56W AND 71W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 59W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO
17N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W
EASTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
20N TO 29N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N79W...ABOUT 90 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN
66W AND 84W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.78 IN HAVANA
CUBA...0.87 IN CURACAO...0.40 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.15 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA...
BEYOND 86W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
12N SOUTHWARD FROM 76W WESTWARD. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IS
IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN OF WESTERN
PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA BETWEEN 81W AND 86W.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N79W...ABOUT 90 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N64W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 13N64W CENTER
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N IN
VENEZUELA TO 25N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 56W AND 71W.
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 17N79W
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS MERGING WITH EAST-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 13N64W CYCLONIC CENTER...AND THEN
MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
APPEARS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...BETWEEN THE 14N63W CYCLONIC
CENTER AND JAMAICA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED
FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS
BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. THE WIND FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY TOWARD THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER EVENTUALLY SHIFTS TO A
POSITION THAT IS TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH
HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
CUBA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS HISPANIOLA WILL BE
ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CANARY
ISLAND 15N28W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N20W...TO THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND 13N30W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM
13N30W 16N40W AND 18N44W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1003 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N15W IN THE CANARY ISLANDS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE INLAND AND IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 7W AND 15W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 21N NORTHWARD BETWEEN LAND
AND 25W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.35 IN
BERMUDA.

A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N45W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 70W...AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS ALONG 32N57W 26N74W...
BEYOND 23N80W AT THE COAST OF CUBA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 211158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA AND
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 6N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N20W
TO 4N35W 5N40W AND 5N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 9W
AND 24W...AND FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 24W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST OF 31N77W 26N90W 23N98W.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE COVER THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE 31N77W 23N98W LINE.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA 1026 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KXIH...
KVBS...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...KGBK...KATP...KIPN...AND
KIKT...AND KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...AREAS OF RAIN...AND PATCHY FOG COVER
THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
BEING OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA.
VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 2 MILES AND FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN GULF
SHORES ALABAMA...AND IN PENSACOLA FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE FORT MYERS FLORIDA
METROPOLITAN AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING OBSERVED IN NAPLES
FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED FROM HOMESTEAD
FLORIDA TO FORT LAUDERDALE.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 32N60W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 32N60W TO 30N65W 27N70W...TO THE BAHAMAS AND
ANDROS ISLAND...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 23N81W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 21N84W. A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 21N84W TO 19N86W TO 16N88W IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD TO HONDURAS FROM 85W WESTWARD TO LAND. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N53W TO 26N70W 23N80W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 32N53W 23N80W LINE.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 13N64W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 13N64W
CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N
IN VENEZUELA TO 25N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 56W AND 71W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 59W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO
17N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W
EASTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
20N TO 29N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N79W...ABOUT 90 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN
66W AND 84W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.78 IN HAVANA
CUBA...0.87 IN CURACAO...0.40 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.15 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA...
BEYOND 86W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
12N SOUTHWARD FROM 76W WESTWARD. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IS
IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN OF WESTERN
PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA BETWEEN 81W AND 86W.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N79W...ABOUT 90 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N64W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 13N64W CENTER
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N IN
VENEZUELA TO 25N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 56W AND 71W.
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 17N79W
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS MERGING WITH EAST-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 13N64W CYCLONIC CENTER...AND THEN
MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
APPEARS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...BETWEEN THE 14N63W CYCLONIC
CENTER AND JAMAICA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED
FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS
BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. THE WIND FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY TOWARD THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER EVENTUALLY SHIFTS TO A
POSITION THAT IS TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH
HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
CUBA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS HISPANIOLA WILL BE
ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CANARY
ISLAND 15N28W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N20W...TO THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND 13N30W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM
13N30W 16N40W AND 18N44W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1003 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N15W IN THE CANARY ISLANDS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE INLAND AND IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 7W AND 15W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 21N NORTHWARD BETWEEN LAND
AND 25W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.35 IN
BERMUDA.

A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N45W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 70W...AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS ALONG 32N57W 26N74W...
BEYOND 23N80W AT THE COAST OF CUBA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
ACPN50 PHFO 211155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

$$

KINEL




000
ACPN50 PHFO 211155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

$$

KINEL





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211136
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 211135
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
700 AM EST VIERNES 21 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 211135
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
700 AM EST VIERNES 21 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA





000
ABNT20 KNHC 211132
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
ABNT20 KNHC 211132
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210922
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI NOV 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N105W TO A 1010 MB LOW
PRES NEAR 11N116W TO 09N123W. ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N123W TO
BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED N OF 07N BETWEEN 81W AND 85W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM
06N TO 10N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 93W AND
101W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN
130W AND 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD EXTENDS SE FROM
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 25N122W THEN CONTINUES MAINLY
WESTWARD TO BEYOND 25N140W. A BELT OF NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IS S OF
THE TROUGH TO ABOUT 19N. AMPLE SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR
MASS IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN 19N AND 27N. S OF
19N...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST AS NOTED BY THE ACTIVE
CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

AT THE SURFACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT NOW IS REACHING THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND
EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 30N127W. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STAY JUST
N OF THE AREA AS IT QUICKLY MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH LOCATED AT 29N143W TO NEAR
22N115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS INDUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS...PARTICULARLY FROM 09N TO 21N W OF 130W BASED ON
RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD
TO NEAR 23N AND EASTWARD TO NEAR 127W BY 48 HRS WITH RESULTANT
SEAS OF 8-10 FT AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS SOME TO THE SE.

SURFACE TROUGH FROM 16N113W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N116W.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 24
HRS. THE NIGHT CHANNEL VISIBLE IMAGES STILL SHOW A SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...MAINLY FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 110W AND 116W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS ALSO SEEN E OF THE AXIS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN
104W AND 110W. THE 0536 ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF NE
WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE FROM 12N TO 15N W OF THE TROUGH AXIS
TO 119W. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD WITH AN AREA OF FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AHEAD OF IT...THAT IS FORECAST TO MERGE
WITH THE AREA OF THE TRADE WINDS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL DOMINATES MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS W OF
115W. THIS SWELL EVENT IS MIXING WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES
GENERATED BY THE TRADE WIND FLOW. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS WILL REACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST REGION BY SAT MORNING THEN WILL PROPAGATE SEW ACROSS
THE NW AND N CENTRAL WATERS BY 48 HOURS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT
COVERING THE AREA N OF ABOUT 18N AND W OF 118W.

GAP WINDS...AN ASCAT PASS AND A WINDSAT PASS SHOWED NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MAINLY N OF
14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20
KT LATE THIS MORNING WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. IN ADDITION...
EXPECT GAP WINDS OF 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS FORECAST
TO BE A STRONGER ONE. CURRENTLY...THE GFS AND THE UKMET GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST WINDS OF 40-50 KT BY WED MORNING WHILE THE
EUROPEAN GLOBAL MODEL INDICATES THAT WINDS COULD REACH 40 KT.
THE GEFS PROBABILITIES OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS 80 PERCENT WITH
THE 21/0000 UTC RUN. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BUILDING SEAS
UP TO 20-23 FT WITH THIS EVENT.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210922
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI NOV 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N105W TO A 1010 MB LOW
PRES NEAR 11N116W TO 09N123W. ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N123W TO
BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED N OF 07N BETWEEN 81W AND 85W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM
06N TO 10N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 93W AND
101W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN
130W AND 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD EXTENDS SE FROM
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 25N122W THEN CONTINUES MAINLY
WESTWARD TO BEYOND 25N140W. A BELT OF NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IS S OF
THE TROUGH TO ABOUT 19N. AMPLE SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR
MASS IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN 19N AND 27N. S OF
19N...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST AS NOTED BY THE ACTIVE
CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

AT THE SURFACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT NOW IS REACHING THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND
EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 30N127W. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STAY JUST
N OF THE AREA AS IT QUICKLY MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH LOCATED AT 29N143W TO NEAR
22N115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS INDUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS...PARTICULARLY FROM 09N TO 21N W OF 130W BASED ON
RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD
TO NEAR 23N AND EASTWARD TO NEAR 127W BY 48 HRS WITH RESULTANT
SEAS OF 8-10 FT AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS SOME TO THE SE.

SURFACE TROUGH FROM 16N113W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N116W.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 24
HRS. THE NIGHT CHANNEL VISIBLE IMAGES STILL SHOW A SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...MAINLY FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 110W AND 116W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS ALSO SEEN E OF THE AXIS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN
104W AND 110W. THE 0536 ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF NE
WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE FROM 12N TO 15N W OF THE TROUGH AXIS
TO 119W. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD WITH AN AREA OF FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AHEAD OF IT...THAT IS FORECAST TO MERGE
WITH THE AREA OF THE TRADE WINDS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL DOMINATES MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS W OF
115W. THIS SWELL EVENT IS MIXING WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES
GENERATED BY THE TRADE WIND FLOW. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS WILL REACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST REGION BY SAT MORNING THEN WILL PROPAGATE SEW ACROSS
THE NW AND N CENTRAL WATERS BY 48 HOURS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT
COVERING THE AREA N OF ABOUT 18N AND W OF 118W.

GAP WINDS...AN ASCAT PASS AND A WINDSAT PASS SHOWED NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MAINLY N OF
14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20
KT LATE THIS MORNING WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. IN ADDITION...
EXPECT GAP WINDS OF 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS FORECAST
TO BE A STRONGER ONE. CURRENTLY...THE GFS AND THE UKMET GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST WINDS OF 40-50 KT BY WED MORNING WHILE THE
EUROPEAN GLOBAL MODEL INDICATES THAT WINDS COULD REACH 40 KT.
THE GEFS PROBABILITIES OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS 80 PERCENT WITH
THE 21/0000 UTC RUN. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BUILDING SEAS
UP TO 20-23 FT WITH THIS EVENT.

$$
GR


000
ACPN50 PHFO 210555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST THU NOV 20 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

$$

KINEL




000
ACPN50 PHFO 210555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST THU NOV 20 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

$$

KINEL




000
ACPN50 PHFO 210555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST THU NOV 20 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

$$

KINEL




000
ACPN50 PHFO 210555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST THU NOV 20 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

$$

KINEL




000
AXNT20 KNHC 210554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 6N19W AND 6N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N21W TO
6N38W AND 5N53W AT THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 180
NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N13W 7N25W 7N40W 7N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH TEXAS AND LOUISIANA INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH IS
SURROUND BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE COVER THE REST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA 1025 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KBBF...
KGVX...KXIH...KVBS...KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...KGBK...KVQT...
KGHB...KATP...KMDJ...AND KIKT...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...AREAS OF RAIN...AND PATCHY FOG COVER
THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 2 MILES AND
FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN GULF SHORES ALABAMA. CLOUD CEILINGS
RANGE IN HEIGHT FROM 6000 FEET TO 8000 FEET FROM THE FORT MYERS
METROPOLITAN AREA TO NAPLES. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 31N60W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 31N60W TO 30N64W...TO THE BAHAMAS AND ANDROS
ISLAND...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 23N81W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N85W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES
FROM 20N85W TO 16N88W IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM
21N80W TO 18N84W AND 16N86W AT THE COAST OF HONDURAS.
PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAIN ARE TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 27N64W 25N73W 23N80W.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 13N64W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 13N64W
CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N
IN VENEZUELA TO 25N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 56W AND 71W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 52W AND 59W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN
55W AND 61W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
10N TO 18N BETWEEN 61W AND 68W. RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 20N TO 29N BETWEEN 50W AND 63W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N80W...ABOUT 120 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN
66W AND 84W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.78 IN HAVANA
CUBA...0.87 IN CURACAO...0.40 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.15 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N/11N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA...
BEYOND 86W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
12N SOUTHWARD FROM 75W WESTWARD. NUMEROUS STRONG IS ALONG THE
COASTS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN OF WESTERN PANAMA AND
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE MOVING THROUGH THE BORDER
SECTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N80W...ABOUT 120 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. A
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
13N64W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 13N64W
CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N
IN VENEZUELA TO 25N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 56W AND 71W.
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 17N80W
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS MERGING WITH NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT
IS MOVING AROUND THE 13N64W CYCLONIC CENTER...AND THEN MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE APPEARS
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...BETWEEN THE 14N63W CYCLONIC CENTER AND
JAMAICA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED
IN PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. THE WIND FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY TOWARD THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER EVENTUALLY SHIFTS TO A
POSITION THAT IS TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH
HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
CUBA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS HISPANIOLA WILL BE
ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CANARY
ISLAND 15N28W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N20W...TO THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND 13N30W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM
13N30W 16N40W AND 18N44W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT RUNS FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 10W AND 11W FROM MOROCCO TO
THE WESTERN SAHARA...TO MAURITANIA. A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 30N16W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 7W AND 17W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.35 IN
BERMUDA.

A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N43W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 70W...AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS ALONG 32N60W 29N67W...
BEYOND 23N80W IN CUBA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 210554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 6N19W AND 6N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N21W TO
6N38W AND 5N53W AT THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 180
NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N13W 7N25W 7N40W 7N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH TEXAS AND LOUISIANA INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH IS
SURROUND BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE COVER THE REST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA 1025 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KBBF...
KGVX...KXIH...KVBS...KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...KGBK...KVQT...
KGHB...KATP...KMDJ...AND KIKT...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...AREAS OF RAIN...AND PATCHY FOG COVER
THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 2 MILES AND
FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN GULF SHORES ALABAMA. CLOUD CEILINGS
RANGE IN HEIGHT FROM 6000 FEET TO 8000 FEET FROM THE FORT MYERS
METROPOLITAN AREA TO NAPLES. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 31N60W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 31N60W TO 30N64W...TO THE BAHAMAS AND ANDROS
ISLAND...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 23N81W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N85W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES
FROM 20N85W TO 16N88W IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM
21N80W TO 18N84W AND 16N86W AT THE COAST OF HONDURAS.
PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAIN ARE TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 27N64W 25N73W 23N80W.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 13N64W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 13N64W
CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N
IN VENEZUELA TO 25N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 56W AND 71W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 52W AND 59W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN
55W AND 61W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
10N TO 18N BETWEEN 61W AND 68W. RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 20N TO 29N BETWEEN 50W AND 63W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N80W...ABOUT 120 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN
66W AND 84W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.78 IN HAVANA
CUBA...0.87 IN CURACAO...0.40 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.15 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N/11N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA...
BEYOND 86W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
12N SOUTHWARD FROM 75W WESTWARD. NUMEROUS STRONG IS ALONG THE
COASTS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN OF WESTERN PANAMA AND
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE MOVING THROUGH THE BORDER
SECTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N80W...ABOUT 120 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. A
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
13N64W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 13N64W
CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N
IN VENEZUELA TO 25N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 56W AND 71W.
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 17N80W
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS MERGING WITH NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT
IS MOVING AROUND THE 13N64W CYCLONIC CENTER...AND THEN MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE APPEARS
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...BETWEEN THE 14N63W CYCLONIC CENTER AND
JAMAICA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED
IN PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. THE WIND FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY TOWARD THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER EVENTUALLY SHIFTS TO A
POSITION THAT IS TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH
HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
CUBA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS HISPANIOLA WILL BE
ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CANARY
ISLAND 15N28W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N20W...TO THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND 13N30W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM
13N30W 16N40W AND 18N44W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT RUNS FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 10W AND 11W FROM MOROCCO TO
THE WESTERN SAHARA...TO MAURITANIA. A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 30N16W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 7W AND 17W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.35 IN
BERMUDA.

A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N43W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 70W...AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS ALONG 32N60W 29N67W...
BEYOND 23N80W IN CUBA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
ABNT20 KNHC 210502
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210502
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABNT20 KNHC 210502
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210502
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABNT20 KNHC 210502
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210502
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ABNT20 KNHC 210502
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210502
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210336
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI NOV 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W ALONG 7N99W TO E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 11N115W. ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
NEAR 10N119W AND EXTENDS ALONG 10N131W TO 8N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 90W-99W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 123W-127W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF
ITCZ BETWEEN 134W-140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 82W-88W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPERIENCING STRONG N TO NE WINDS
WHILE SEAS REMAIN 9 TO 10 FT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT BY FRI MORNING.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 27N W OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N127W
TO 30N131W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA FROM 17N-26N E OF
120W AND FROM 20N-30N W OF 120W. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STAY
N OF 30N DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD BEFORE MOVING INLAND
BY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 15N W
OF 118W ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR
30N143W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND THE
LOWER PRESSURE OF THE TROPICS IS INDUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ W OF 132W WITH SEAS TO
10 FT. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 48 HRS. AN AREA
OF MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE BETWEEN 120W AND THE AREA ABOVE WITH
SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 9 FT. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD AND RETREAT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS THEN PERSIST
THROUGH 48 HRS.

IN THE TROPICS...THE AREA SOUTH OF THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
MOISTURE LADEN AND THUS ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. SEE ABOVE.
THE ELONGATED SURFACE LOW IS IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 14N112W TO 9N117W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 105W-116W.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ NORTHWARD
THROUGH FRI BEFORE DISSIPATING. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS TO 8 FT
BEFORE MOVING W EXPANDING THE TRADE WINDS EASTWARD BUILDING SEAS
FROM 8 TO 9 FT.

WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS...IN THE
WAKE OF THE CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT PASSES JUST N OF 30N WILL
BEGIN OVERNIGHT PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NW INTO NE
WATERS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ANOTHER
ROUND OF NW SWELLS WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CORNER ON SAT.

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210336
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI NOV 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W ALONG 7N99W TO E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 11N115W. ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
NEAR 10N119W AND EXTENDS ALONG 10N131W TO 8N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 90W-99W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 123W-127W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF
ITCZ BETWEEN 134W-140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 82W-88W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPERIENCING STRONG N TO NE WINDS
WHILE SEAS REMAIN 9 TO 10 FT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT BY FRI MORNING.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 27N W OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N127W
TO 30N131W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA FROM 17N-26N E OF
120W AND FROM 20N-30N W OF 120W. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STAY
N OF 30N DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD BEFORE MOVING INLAND
BY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 15N W
OF 118W ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR
30N143W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND THE
LOWER PRESSURE OF THE TROPICS IS INDUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ W OF 132W WITH SEAS TO
10 FT. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 48 HRS. AN AREA
OF MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE BETWEEN 120W AND THE AREA ABOVE WITH
SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 9 FT. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD AND RETREAT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS THEN PERSIST
THROUGH 48 HRS.

IN THE TROPICS...THE AREA SOUTH OF THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
MOISTURE LADEN AND THUS ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. SEE ABOVE.
THE ELONGATED SURFACE LOW IS IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 14N112W TO 9N117W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 105W-116W.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ NORTHWARD
THROUGH FRI BEFORE DISSIPATING. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS TO 8 FT
BEFORE MOVING W EXPANDING THE TRADE WINDS EASTWARD BUILDING SEAS
FROM 8 TO 9 FT.

WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS...IN THE
WAKE OF THE CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT PASSES JUST N OF 30N WILL
BEGIN OVERNIGHT PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NW INTO NE
WATERS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ANOTHER
ROUND OF NW SWELLS WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CORNER ON SAT.

$$
PAW


000
ACPN50 PHFO 202345
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST THU NOV 20 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

FOSTER





000
ACPN50 PHFO 202345
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST THU NOV 20 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

FOSTER






000
AXNT20 KNHC 202342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 9N13W TO 6N19W TO 5N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM THAT POINT TO
6N36W TO 6N54W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 5N-11N
E OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE FL/GA BORDER NEAR
31N85W WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF. WITH THIS...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATES THE BASIN. AT UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS W MEXICO. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NW GULF AND COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM
23N81W TO 20N85W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS POINT TO
17N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 85 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT PREVAIL W OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED SW OF
JAMAICA NEAR 17N79W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN 66W-83W. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N63W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
E CARIBBEAN AND W ATLANTIC FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 55W-65W. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE WHILE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE NW BASIN.
ALSO...THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
E CARIBBEAN WILL SPREAD W AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT CARIBBEAN/ATLANTIC WATERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED SW OF JAMAICA EXTENDS THROUGH THE
WHOLE ISLAND. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN TO SPREAD W ENHANCING CONVECTION.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N63W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR
25N76W TO CUBA NEAR 23N80W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM
OF THE BOUNDARY. TO THE E...A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N44W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 19N-31N BETWEEN
20W-70W. IN THE FAR E ATLANTIC...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH AND A CYCLONE NEAR 36N16W IS
PRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF 21N...E OF 32W. AT
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 13N63W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN AND W ATLANTIC FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 55W-65W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO WEAKEN. THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING
CONVECTION E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202329
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202329
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 202325
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
700 PM EST JUEVES 20 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 202325
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
700 PM EST JUEVES 20 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN





000
ABNT20 KNHC 202324
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABNT20 KNHC 202324
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven




000
AXNT20 KNHC 202315
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 9N13W TO 6N19W TO 5N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM THAT POINT TO
6N36W TO 6N54W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 5N-11N
E OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE FL/GA BORDER NEAR
31N85W WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF. WITH THIS...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATES THE BASIN. AT UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS W MEXICO. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NW GULF AND COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM
23N81W TO 20N85W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS POINT TO
17N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 85 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT PREVAIL W OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED SW OF
JAMAICA NEAR 17N79W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN 66W-83W. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N63W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
E CARIBBEAN AND W ATLANTIC FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 55W-65W. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE WHILE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE NW BASIN.
ALSO...THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
E CARIBBEAN WILL SPREAD W AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT CARIBBEAN/ATLANTIC WATERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED SW OF JAMAICA EXTENDS THROUGH THE
WHOLE ISLAND. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN TO SPREAD W ENHANCING CONVECTION.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N63W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR
25N76W TO CUBA NEAR 23N80W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM
OF THE BOUNDARY. TO THE E...A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N44W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 19N-31N BETWEEN
20W-70W. IN THE FAR E ATLANTIC...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH AND A CYCLONE NEAR 36N16W IS
PRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF 21N...E OF 32W. AT
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 13N63W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN AND W ATLANTIC FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 55W-65W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE.
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING
CONVECTION E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 202315
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 9N13W TO 6N19W TO 5N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM THAT POINT TO
6N36W TO 6N54W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 5N-11N
E OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE FL/GA BORDER NEAR
31N85W WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF. WITH THIS...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATES THE BASIN. AT UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS W MEXICO. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NW GULF AND COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM
23N81W TO 20N85W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS POINT TO
17N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 85 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT PREVAIL W OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED SW OF
JAMAICA NEAR 17N79W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN 66W-83W. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N63W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
E CARIBBEAN AND W ATLANTIC FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 55W-65W. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE WHILE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE NW BASIN.
ALSO...THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
E CARIBBEAN WILL SPREAD W AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT CARIBBEAN/ATLANTIC WATERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED SW OF JAMAICA EXTENDS THROUGH THE
WHOLE ISLAND. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN TO SPREAD W ENHANCING CONVECTION.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N63W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR
25N76W TO CUBA NEAR 23N80W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM
OF THE BOUNDARY. TO THE E...A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N44W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 19N-31N BETWEEN
20W-70W. IN THE FAR E ATLANTIC...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH AND A CYCLONE NEAR 36N16W IS
PRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF 21N...E OF 32W. AT
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 13N63W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN AND W ATLANTIC FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 55W-65W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE.
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING
CONVECTION E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 202315
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 9N13W TO 6N19W TO 5N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM THAT POINT TO
6N36W TO 6N54W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 5N-11N
E OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE FL/GA BORDER NEAR
31N85W WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF. WITH THIS...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATES THE BASIN. AT UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS W MEXICO. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NW GULF AND COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM
23N81W TO 20N85W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS POINT TO
17N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 85 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT PREVAIL W OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED SW OF
JAMAICA NEAR 17N79W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN 66W-83W. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N63W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
E CARIBBEAN AND W ATLANTIC FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 55W-65W. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE WHILE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE NW BASIN.
ALSO...THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
E CARIBBEAN WILL SPREAD W AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT CARIBBEAN/ATLANTIC WATERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED SW OF JAMAICA EXTENDS THROUGH THE
WHOLE ISLAND. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN TO SPREAD W ENHANCING CONVECTION.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N63W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR
25N76W TO CUBA NEAR 23N80W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM
OF THE BOUNDARY. TO THE E...A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N44W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 19N-31N BETWEEN
20W-70W. IN THE FAR E ATLANTIC...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH AND A CYCLONE NEAR 36N16W IS
PRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF 21N...E OF 32W. AT
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 13N63W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN AND W ATLANTIC FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 55W-65W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE.
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING
CONVECTION E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 202315
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 9N13W TO 6N19W TO 5N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM THAT POINT TO
6N36W TO 6N54W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 5N-11N
E OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE FL/GA BORDER NEAR
31N85W WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF. WITH THIS...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATES THE BASIN. AT UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS W MEXICO. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NW GULF AND COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM
23N81W TO 20N85W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS POINT TO
17N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 85 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT PREVAIL W OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED SW OF
JAMAICA NEAR 17N79W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN 66W-83W. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N63W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
E CARIBBEAN AND W ATLANTIC FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 55W-65W. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE WHILE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE NW BASIN.
ALSO...THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
E CARIBBEAN WILL SPREAD W AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT CARIBBEAN/ATLANTIC WATERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED SW OF JAMAICA EXTENDS THROUGH THE
WHOLE ISLAND. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN TO SPREAD W ENHANCING CONVECTION.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N63W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR
25N76W TO CUBA NEAR 23N80W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM
OF THE BOUNDARY. TO THE E...A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N44W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 19N-31N BETWEEN
20W-70W. IN THE FAR E ATLANTIC...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH AND A CYCLONE NEAR 36N16W IS
PRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF 21N...E OF 32W. AT
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 13N63W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN AND W ATLANTIC FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 55W-65W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE.
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING
CONVECTION E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202152
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU NOV 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W ALONG 7N96W 4N104W TO A
1010 MB NEAR 13N113W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE LOW NEAR 10N117W
AND EXTENDS ALONG 10N126W TO 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N AND 200 NM S OF MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 89W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 1010 LOW WITHIN THE NE
QUADRANT...WITHIN 150 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 98W-105W...
WITHIN 120 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 116W-130W...AND WITHIN 90 NM OF
ITCZ W OF 135W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N
BETWEEN 82W-86W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS NO LONGER EXPERIENCING GALE
FORCE WINDS...STRONG N TO NE WINDS REMAIN WITH SEAS TO 11 FT.
THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT BY FRI AFTERNOON.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 27N W OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N130W
TO 31N135W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA FROM 17N-27N E OF
120W AND FROM 20N-30N W OF 120W. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STAY
N OF 30N AS IT QUICKLY MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS
BEFORE MOVING INLAND.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 15N W
OF 118W ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR
29N143W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND THE
LOWER PRESSURE OF THE TROPICS IS INDUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. THESE WINDS WILL
EXPAND NORTHWARD AND RETREAT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS THEN
PERSIST THROUGH 48 HRS. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 9
FT.

IN THE TROPICS...THE AREA S OF THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS MOISTURE
LADEN AND THUS ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. SEE ABOVE. AN
ELONGATED 1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
CENTERED NEAR 13N113W DRIFTING W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AND BECOME A TROUGH LATER TONIGHT WHILE LIFTING THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ NORTHWARD. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SEAS TO 8 FT THAT
WILL SHIFT W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS...IN THE
WAKE OF THE CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT PASSES JUST N OF 30N WILL
PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE FAR NW AND N/CENTRAL WATERS WITH SEAS TO
9 FT STARTING TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF NW SWELLS WILL MOVE
INTO THE NW CORNER ON SAT.

$$
PAW


000
ACPN50 PHFO 201746
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST THU NOV 20 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

FOSTER





000
ACPN50 PHFO 201746
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST THU NOV 20 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

FOSTER






000
AXNT20 KNHC 201720
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 7N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N19W TO 7N30W TO
7N45W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 6N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 14W AND 31W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 41W AND
60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1027 MB IS CENTERED OVER THE FL/GA BORDER NEAR
31N84W WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATES THE BASIN. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT THE NE WHERE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE OCCURRING. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW
ALOFT IS OCCURRING BETWEEN A TROUGH IN THE W ATLANTIC...AND
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS W MEXICO. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS SE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE BASIN.
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS W MEXICO WILL APPROACH THE NW
GULF. THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BASIN BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
NORTHERN BASIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CUBA NEAR 22N81W ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. 15 TO 20 KT NE
WINDS ARE ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
50 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO
19N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N
BETWEEN 75W AND 84W ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 17N80W.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL BASIN. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N63W MOVING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF 67W ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN INCLUDING
THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE IN THE NW BASIN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
W WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE E CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA... THE ISLAND IS CURRENTLY IN FAIR WEATHER AND
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST AND AN
UPPER LOW TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE UPPER LOW IN
THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE TOWARD THE ISLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ISLAND ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N63W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR
25N76W TO CUBA NEAR 23N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM
OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N44W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 31N
BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH AND A
CYCLONE NEAR 38N17W IS PRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT
FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 25W AND 35W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LOW IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION BETWEEN 10N AND 16N BETWEEN 55W AND 61W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 201720
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 7N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N19W TO 7N30W TO
7N45W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 6N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 14W AND 31W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 41W AND
60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1027 MB IS CENTERED OVER THE FL/GA BORDER NEAR
31N84W WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATES THE BASIN. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT THE NE WHERE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE OCCURRING. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW
ALOFT IS OCCURRING BETWEEN A TROUGH IN THE W ATLANTIC...AND
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS W MEXICO. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS SE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE BASIN.
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS W MEXICO WILL APPROACH THE NW
GULF. THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BASIN BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
NORTHERN BASIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CUBA NEAR 22N81W ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. 15 TO 20 KT NE
WINDS ARE ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
50 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO
19N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N
BETWEEN 75W AND 84W ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 17N80W.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL BASIN. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N63W MOVING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF 67W ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN INCLUDING
THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE IN THE NW BASIN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
W WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE E CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA... THE ISLAND IS CURRENTLY IN FAIR WEATHER AND
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST AND AN
UPPER LOW TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE UPPER LOW IN
THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE TOWARD THE ISLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ISLAND ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N63W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR
25N76W TO CUBA NEAR 23N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM
OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N44W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 31N
BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH AND A
CYCLONE NEAR 38N17W IS PRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT
FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 25W AND 35W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LOW IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION BETWEEN 10N AND 16N BETWEEN 55W AND 61W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 201720
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 7N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N19W TO 7N30W TO
7N45W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 6N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 14W AND 31W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 41W AND
60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1027 MB IS CENTERED OVER THE FL/GA BORDER NEAR
31N84W WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATES THE BASIN. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT THE NE WHERE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE OCCURRING. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW
ALOFT IS OCCURRING BETWEEN A TROUGH IN THE W ATLANTIC...AND
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS W MEXICO. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS SE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE BASIN.
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS W MEXICO WILL APPROACH THE NW
GULF. THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BASIN BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
NORTHERN BASIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CUBA NEAR 22N81W ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. 15 TO 20 KT NE
WINDS ARE ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
50 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO
19N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N
BETWEEN 75W AND 84W ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 17N80W.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL BASIN. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N63W MOVING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF 67W ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN INCLUDING
THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE IN THE NW BASIN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
W WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE E CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA... THE ISLAND IS CURRENTLY IN FAIR WEATHER AND
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST AND AN
UPPER LOW TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE UPPER LOW IN
THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE TOWARD THE ISLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ISLAND ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N63W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR
25N76W TO CUBA NEAR 23N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM
OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N44W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 31N
BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH AND A
CYCLONE NEAR 38N17W IS PRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT
FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 25W AND 35W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LOW IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION BETWEEN 10N AND 16N BETWEEN 55W AND 61W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 201720
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 7N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N19W TO 7N30W TO
7N45W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 6N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 14W AND 31W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 41W AND
60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1027 MB IS CENTERED OVER THE FL/GA BORDER NEAR
31N84W WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATES THE BASIN. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT THE NE WHERE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE OCCURRING. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW
ALOFT IS OCCURRING BETWEEN A TROUGH IN THE W ATLANTIC...AND
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS W MEXICO. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS SE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE BASIN.
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS W MEXICO WILL APPROACH THE NW
GULF. THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BASIN BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
NORTHERN BASIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CUBA NEAR 22N81W ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. 15 TO 20 KT NE
WINDS ARE ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
50 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO
19N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N
BETWEEN 75W AND 84W ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 17N80W.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL BASIN. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N63W MOVING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF 67W ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN INCLUDING
THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE IN THE NW BASIN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
W WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE E CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA... THE ISLAND IS CURRENTLY IN FAIR WEATHER AND
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST AND AN
UPPER LOW TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE UPPER LOW IN
THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE TOWARD THE ISLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ISLAND ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N63W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR
25N76W TO CUBA NEAR 23N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM
OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N44W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 31N
BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH AND A
CYCLONE NEAR 38N17W IS PRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT
FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 25W AND 35W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LOW IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION BETWEEN 10N AND 16N BETWEEN 55W AND 61W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 201707
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
100 PM EST JUEVES 20 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 201707
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
100 PM EST JUEVES 20 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201704
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST THU NOV 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201704
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST THU NOV 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
ABNT20 KNHC 201703
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABNT20 KNHC 201703
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201557
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU NOV 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-35 KT AS CONFIRMED BY SCATTEROMETER
PASSES FROM LATE LAST NIGHT. SEAS THERE HAVE SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TO
THE RANGE OF 10-14 FT. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ON TRACK...
ACCORDING TO MODEL GUIDANCE...TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN GALE
FORCE RANGE BY ABOUT 18Z THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRES WEAKENS.
THESE WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH
RESULTANT SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY FRI NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N95W TO 09N105W
TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N111W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 13N111W TO 10N125W
TO 08N135W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 90W-94W...
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 98W-102W...ALSO WITHIN 60 NM
N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 90W-94W...BETWEEN 98W-102W AND WITHIN
120 NM S OF ITCZ W OF 137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 110W-12W...AND WITHIN 120
NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 125W-132W.

ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED
FROM 08N-12N AND BETWEEN 91W-94W IS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER THAT VICINITY OF THE AREA.

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA SE 20N110.5W TO NEAR 11N108W. AN
ELONGATED TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA
STRETCHING FROM 32N125W SW TO 28N135W TO SW OF THE AREA AT
26N140W. AMPLE SUBSIDENCE AS INFERRED FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO KEEP A CAP ON MOISTURE NEAR AND ALONG THESE
TROUGHS. THE SUBSIDENCE IS ALLOWING FOR RATHER DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL N OF 19N WHERE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATOCUMLUS CLOUDS MOVING SW ARE SEEN. S OF 19N...THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST AS NOTED BY THE ACTIVE CONVECTION
ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH AS NOTED ABOVE.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC STATE
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS.

AT THE SURFACE...THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR NW PORTION EXTENDS SW TO
31N138W. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STAY JUST N OF THE AREA AS IT
QUICKLY MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. A RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED AT 30N142W ESE TO 27N128W AND TO
NEAR 24N119W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROUGH
JUST W OF 140W IS INDUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS
FROM 08N-18N W OF 137W. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD TO
NEAR 24N AND EASTWARD TO NEAR 128W BY 48 HRS WITH RESULTANT SEAS
OF 8-10 FT AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS SOME TO THE SE.

BROAD 1010 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 13N111W MOVING WNW
AROUND 10 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW IN
THE SE QUADRANT...AND 120 NM OF THE LOW IN THE SW QUADRANT. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 48 HRS
OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COMBINATION OF SW AND NW SWELLS WILL
BRING SEAS TO 8 FT WITHIN 360 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NW QUADRANT
THROUGH 24 HRS...AND TO INCLUDE 120 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NE
QUADRANT AT 48 HRS.

WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS...IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES JUST TO THE N OF THE AREA...
WILL PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS THE FAR NW AND N CENTRAL WATERS BY 24
HOURS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELLS N OF ABOUT 28N
AND W OF 132W...AND BY 48 HRS N OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO
24N130W TO 24N140W.

IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT
...STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. SEAS CURRENTLY UP
TO 8 FT ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT AS THESE WINDS
DIMINISH.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201557
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU NOV 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-35 KT AS CONFIRMED BY SCATTEROMETER
PASSES FROM LATE LAST NIGHT. SEAS THERE HAVE SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TO
THE RANGE OF 10-14 FT. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ON TRACK...
ACCORDING TO MODEL GUIDANCE...TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN GALE
FORCE RANGE BY ABOUT 18Z THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRES WEAKENS.
THESE WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH
RESULTANT SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY FRI NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N95W TO 09N105W
TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N111W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 13N111W TO 10N125W
TO 08N135W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 90W-94W...
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 98W-102W...ALSO WITHIN 60 NM
N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 90W-94W...BETWEEN 98W-102W AND WITHIN
120 NM S OF ITCZ W OF 137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 110W-12W...AND WITHIN 120
NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 125W-132W.

ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED
FROM 08N-12N AND BETWEEN 91W-94W IS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER THAT VICINITY OF THE AREA.

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA SE 20N110.5W TO NEAR 11N108W. AN
ELONGATED TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA
STRETCHING FROM 32N125W SW TO 28N135W TO SW OF THE AREA AT
26N140W. AMPLE SUBSIDENCE AS INFERRED FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO KEEP A CAP ON MOISTURE NEAR AND ALONG THESE
TROUGHS. THE SUBSIDENCE IS ALLOWING FOR RATHER DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL N OF 19N WHERE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATOCUMLUS CLOUDS MOVING SW ARE SEEN. S OF 19N...THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST AS NOTED BY THE ACTIVE CONVECTION
ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH AS NOTED ABOVE.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC STATE
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS.

AT THE SURFACE...THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR NW PORTION EXTENDS SW TO
31N138W. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STAY JUST N OF THE AREA AS IT
QUICKLY MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. A RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED AT 30N142W ESE TO 27N128W AND TO
NEAR 24N119W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROUGH
JUST W OF 140W IS INDUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS
FROM 08N-18N W OF 137W. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD TO
NEAR 24N AND EASTWARD TO NEAR 128W BY 48 HRS WITH RESULTANT SEAS
OF 8-10 FT AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS SOME TO THE SE.

BROAD 1010 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 13N111W MOVING WNW
AROUND 10 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW IN
THE SE QUADRANT...AND 120 NM OF THE LOW IN THE SW QUADRANT. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 48 HRS
OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COMBINATION OF SW AND NW SWELLS WILL
BRING SEAS TO 8 FT WITHIN 360 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NW QUADRANT
THROUGH 24 HRS...AND TO INCLUDE 120 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NE
QUADRANT AT 48 HRS.

WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS...IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES JUST TO THE N OF THE AREA...
WILL PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS THE FAR NW AND N CENTRAL WATERS BY 24
HOURS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELLS N OF ABOUT 28N
AND W OF 132W...AND BY 48 HRS N OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO
24N130W TO 24N140W.

IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT
...STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. SEAS CURRENTLY UP
TO 8 FT ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT AS THESE WINDS
DIMINISH.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201557
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU NOV 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-35 KT AS CONFIRMED BY SCATTEROMETER
PASSES FROM LATE LAST NIGHT. SEAS THERE HAVE SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TO
THE RANGE OF 10-14 FT. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ON TRACK...
ACCORDING TO MODEL GUIDANCE...TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN GALE
FORCE RANGE BY ABOUT 18Z THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRES WEAKENS.
THESE WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH
RESULTANT SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY FRI NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N95W TO 09N105W
TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N111W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 13N111W TO 10N125W
TO 08N135W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 90W-94W...
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 98W-102W...ALSO WITHIN 60 NM
N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 90W-94W...BETWEEN 98W-102W AND WITHIN
120 NM S OF ITCZ W OF 137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 110W-12W...AND WITHIN 120
NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 125W-132W.

ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED
FROM 08N-12N AND BETWEEN 91W-94W IS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER THAT VICINITY OF THE AREA.

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA SE 20N110.5W TO NEAR 11N108W. AN
ELONGATED TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA
STRETCHING FROM 32N125W SW TO 28N135W TO SW OF THE AREA AT
26N140W. AMPLE SUBSIDENCE AS INFERRED FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO KEEP A CAP ON MOISTURE NEAR AND ALONG THESE
TROUGHS. THE SUBSIDENCE IS ALLOWING FOR RATHER DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL N OF 19N WHERE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATOCUMLUS CLOUDS MOVING SW ARE SEEN. S OF 19N...THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST AS NOTED BY THE ACTIVE CONVECTION
ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH AS NOTED ABOVE.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC STATE
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS.

AT THE SURFACE...THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR NW PORTION EXTENDS SW TO
31N138W. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STAY JUST N OF THE AREA AS IT
QUICKLY MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. A RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED AT 30N142W ESE TO 27N128W AND TO
NEAR 24N119W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROUGH
JUST W OF 140W IS INDUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS
FROM 08N-18N W OF 137W. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD TO
NEAR 24N AND EASTWARD TO NEAR 128W BY 48 HRS WITH RESULTANT SEAS
OF 8-10 FT AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS SOME TO THE SE.

BROAD 1010 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 13N111W MOVING WNW
AROUND 10 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW IN
THE SE QUADRANT...AND 120 NM OF THE LOW IN THE SW QUADRANT. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 48 HRS
OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COMBINATION OF SW AND NW SWELLS WILL
BRING SEAS TO 8 FT WITHIN 360 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NW QUADRANT
THROUGH 24 HRS...AND TO INCLUDE 120 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NE
QUADRANT AT 48 HRS.

WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS...IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES JUST TO THE N OF THE AREA...
WILL PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS THE FAR NW AND N CENTRAL WATERS BY 24
HOURS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELLS N OF ABOUT 28N
AND W OF 132W...AND BY 48 HRS N OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO
24N130W TO 24N140W.

IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT
...STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. SEAS CURRENTLY UP
TO 8 FT ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT AS THESE WINDS
DIMINISH.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201557
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU NOV 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-35 KT AS CONFIRMED BY SCATTEROMETER
PASSES FROM LATE LAST NIGHT. SEAS THERE HAVE SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TO
THE RANGE OF 10-14 FT. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ON TRACK...
ACCORDING TO MODEL GUIDANCE...TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN GALE
FORCE RANGE BY ABOUT 18Z THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRES WEAKENS.
THESE WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH
RESULTANT SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY FRI NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N95W TO 09N105W
TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N111W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 13N111W TO 10N125W
TO 08N135W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 90W-94W...
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 98W-102W...ALSO WITHIN 60 NM
N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 90W-94W...BETWEEN 98W-102W AND WITHIN
120 NM S OF ITCZ W OF 137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 110W-12W...AND WITHIN 120
NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 125W-132W.

ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED
FROM 08N-12N AND BETWEEN 91W-94W IS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER THAT VICINITY OF THE AREA.

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA SE 20N110.5W TO NEAR 11N108W. AN
ELONGATED TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA
STRETCHING FROM 32N125W SW TO 28N135W TO SW OF THE AREA AT
26N140W. AMPLE SUBSIDENCE AS INFERRED FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO KEEP A CAP ON MOISTURE NEAR AND ALONG THESE
TROUGHS. THE SUBSIDENCE IS ALLOWING FOR RATHER DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL N OF 19N WHERE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATOCUMLUS CLOUDS MOVING SW ARE SEEN. S OF 19N...THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST AS NOTED BY THE ACTIVE CONVECTION
ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH AS NOTED ABOVE.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC STATE
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS.

AT THE SURFACE...THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR NW PORTION EXTENDS SW TO
31N138W. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STAY JUST N OF THE AREA AS IT
QUICKLY MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. A RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED AT 30N142W ESE TO 27N128W AND TO
NEAR 24N119W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROUGH
JUST W OF 140W IS INDUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS
FROM 08N-18N W OF 137W. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD TO
NEAR 24N AND EASTWARD TO NEAR 128W BY 48 HRS WITH RESULTANT SEAS
OF 8-10 FT AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS SOME TO THE SE.

BROAD 1010 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 13N111W MOVING WNW
AROUND 10 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW IN
THE SE QUADRANT...AND 120 NM OF THE LOW IN THE SW QUADRANT. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 48 HRS
OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COMBINATION OF SW AND NW SWELLS WILL
BRING SEAS TO 8 FT WITHIN 360 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NW QUADRANT
THROUGH 24 HRS...AND TO INCLUDE 120 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NE
QUADRANT AT 48 HRS.

WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS...IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES JUST TO THE N OF THE AREA...
WILL PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS THE FAR NW AND N CENTRAL WATERS BY 24
HOURS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELLS N OF ABOUT 28N
AND W OF 132W...AND BY 48 HRS N OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO
24N130W TO 24N140W.

IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT
...STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. SEAS CURRENTLY UP
TO 8 FT ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT AS THESE WINDS
DIMINISH.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXNT20 KNHC 201158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 8N18W AND 6N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N24W TO
6N38W AND 7N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 42W AND 52W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 10W AND 31W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THIS TROUGH WAS SUPPORTING THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING FROM
MEXICO FROM 17N TO 25N...ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
RUNS FROM A SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...
TO 26N94W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INLAND INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KXIH...
KGBK...KVQT...KGHB...KATP...KEIR...AND KATP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. A
LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN MARATHON KEY IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 14N63W IN THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 15N62W CYCLONIC CENTER COVERS THE
ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN, AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 8N TO 25N BETWEEN 55W AND 72W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W EASTWARD.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...NUMEROUS STRONG
IS ALONG THE COAST OF GUYANA FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 56W AND 57W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR 32N64W...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...TO
16N87W AT THE HONDURAS COAST. NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE COAST OF
HONDURAS...BETWEEN 85W AND 88W IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 19N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 83W AND LAND.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW
LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW...MAINLY
FROM 12N TO 18N.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
20/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.29 IN
CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND
86W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 8N IN COLOMBIA TO 11N BETWEEN 75W AND 82W IN THE PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA COASTAL WATERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS TO THE WEST OF THE
COMPARATIVELY LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE 14N63W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE APPEARS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...BETWEEN
THE 14N63W CYCLONIC CENTER AND JAMAICA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO PUNTA
CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE PRESENT. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500
MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...BEING
TO THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD EASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
BAHAMAS AND CUBA RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 29N67W. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY AND IT CONTINUES FROM 29N67W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR
25N77W AND ANDROS ISLAND...CURVING ACROSS CUBA ALONG 22N81W...TO
20N84W...AND TO NORTH CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N65W TO 26N71W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N64W...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...TO 16N87W AT THE
HONDURAS COAST. NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS...
BETWEEN 85W AND 88W IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 19N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 83W AND LAND.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...TO 12N32W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N10W TO SOUTHERN
MOROCCO...THROUGH THE WESTERN SAHARA...TO 21N20W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 20W.

A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N45W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 70W...AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS ALONG 32N60W 29N67W...
BEYOND 23N80W IN CUBA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 201158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 8N18W AND 6N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N24W TO
6N38W AND 7N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 42W AND 52W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 10W AND 31W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THIS TROUGH WAS SUPPORTING THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING FROM
MEXICO FROM 17N TO 25N...ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
RUNS FROM A SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...
TO 26N94W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INLAND INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KXIH...
KGBK...KVQT...KGHB...KATP...KEIR...AND KATP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. A
LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN MARATHON KEY IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 14N63W IN THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 15N62W CYCLONIC CENTER COVERS THE
ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN, AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 8N TO 25N BETWEEN 55W AND 72W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W EASTWARD.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...NUMEROUS STRONG
IS ALONG THE COAST OF GUYANA FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 56W AND 57W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR 32N64W...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...TO
16N87W AT THE HONDURAS COAST. NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE COAST OF
HONDURAS...BETWEEN 85W AND 88W IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 19N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 83W AND LAND.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW
LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW...MAINLY
FROM 12N TO 18N.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
20/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.29 IN
CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND
86W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 8N IN COLOMBIA TO 11N BETWEEN 75W AND 82W IN THE PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA COASTAL WATERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS TO THE WEST OF THE
COMPARATIVELY LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE 14N63W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE APPEARS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...BETWEEN
THE 14N63W CYCLONIC CENTER AND JAMAICA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO PUNTA
CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE PRESENT. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500
MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...BEING
TO THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD EASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
BAHAMAS AND CUBA RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 29N67W. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY AND IT CONTINUES FROM 29N67W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR
25N77W AND ANDROS ISLAND...CURVING ACROSS CUBA ALONG 22N81W...TO
20N84W...AND TO NORTH CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N65W TO 26N71W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N64W...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...TO 16N87W AT THE
HONDURAS COAST. NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS...
BETWEEN 85W AND 88W IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 19N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 83W AND LAND.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...TO 12N32W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N10W TO SOUTHERN
MOROCCO...THROUGH THE WESTERN SAHARA...TO 21N20W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 20W.

A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N45W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 70W...AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS ALONG 32N60W 29N67W...
BEYOND 23N80W IN CUBA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
ACPN50 PHFO 201148
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST THU NOV 20 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

$$

MORRISON





000
ACPN50 PHFO 201148
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST THU NOV 20 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

$$

MORRISON






000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201140
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST THU NOV 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
ABNT20 KNHC 201137
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
ABNT20 KNHC 201137
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 201137
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
700 AM EST JUEVES 20 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN




000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200933
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU NOV 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-40 KT AS CONFIRMED BY RECENT
ASCAT AND WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. SEAS ARE IN THE 11-16 FT
RANGE IN THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
TAFB-NWPS MODEL GUIDANCE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW
GALE FORCE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH
TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH RESULTANT SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT
BY FRI NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N100W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 12.5N111W TO 09N116W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N116W TO 07N136W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM SE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND
95W...WITHIN 300 NM NE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 109W...
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 115W...
AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 132W AND 136W.

ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 105 NM SW OF
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA WITH THE AREA UNDER UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE.

...DISCUSSION...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N120W TO 23N126W TO
20N140W. NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
SUBSIDE WHILE PROPAGATING SE OVER THE AREA. SEAS OF 8-10 FT ARE
CURRENTLY W OF A LINE FROM 30N117W TO 10N128W TO 07N140W. THE
COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY WHILE THE NW
SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. MEANWHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS JUST W OF 140W WITH A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
E-SE WINDS FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 139W. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER W OF 140W.

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE NW WATERS IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL
COVER THE WATERS 09N TO 24N W OF 129W BY 48 HOURS.

A NEW SET OF NW SWELL WILL ENTER THE FAR NW WATERS BY 24 HOURS
WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT ACROSS THE AREA N OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO
24N129W TO 24N131W BY 48 HOURS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING THEN WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 8 FT THROUGH THE
MORNING.

BROAD 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 12.5N111W MOVING W
AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WHILE WEAKENING TO 1011 MB BY 48 HOURS. A COMBINATION OF
SW AND NW SWELLS WILL RESULT IN SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS LOW.

$$
LEWITSKY


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200933
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU NOV 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-40 KT AS CONFIRMED BY RECENT
ASCAT AND WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. SEAS ARE IN THE 11-16 FT
RANGE IN THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
TAFB-NWPS MODEL GUIDANCE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW
GALE FORCE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH
TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH RESULTANT SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT
BY FRI NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N100W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 12.5N111W TO 09N116W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N116W TO 07N136W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM SE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND
95W...WITHIN 300 NM NE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 109W...
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 115W...
AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 132W AND 136W.

ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 105 NM SW OF
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA WITH THE AREA UNDER UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE.

...DISCUSSION...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N120W TO 23N126W TO
20N140W. NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
SUBSIDE WHILE PROPAGATING SE OVER THE AREA. SEAS OF 8-10 FT ARE
CURRENTLY W OF A LINE FROM 30N117W TO 10N128W TO 07N140W. THE
COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY WHILE THE NW
SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. MEANWHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS JUST W OF 140W WITH A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
E-SE WINDS FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 139W. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER W OF 140W.

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE NW WATERS IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL
COVER THE WATERS 09N TO 24N W OF 129W BY 48 HOURS.

A NEW SET OF NW SWELL WILL ENTER THE FAR NW WATERS BY 24 HOURS
WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT ACROSS THE AREA N OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO
24N129W TO 24N131W BY 48 HOURS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING THEN WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 8 FT THROUGH THE
MORNING.

BROAD 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 12.5N111W MOVING W
AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WHILE WEAKENING TO 1011 MB BY 48 HOURS. A COMBINATION OF
SW AND NW SWELLS WILL RESULT IN SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS LOW.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200933
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU NOV 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-40 KT AS CONFIRMED BY RECENT
ASCAT AND WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. SEAS ARE IN THE 11-16 FT
RANGE IN THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
TAFB-NWPS MODEL GUIDANCE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW
GALE FORCE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH
TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH RESULTANT SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT
BY FRI NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N100W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 12.5N111W TO 09N116W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N116W TO 07N136W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM SE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND
95W...WITHIN 300 NM NE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 109W...
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 115W...
AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 132W AND 136W.

ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 105 NM SW OF
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA WITH THE AREA UNDER UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE.

...DISCUSSION...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N120W TO 23N126W TO
20N140W. NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
SUBSIDE WHILE PROPAGATING SE OVER THE AREA. SEAS OF 8-10 FT ARE
CURRENTLY W OF A LINE FROM 30N117W TO 10N128W TO 07N140W. THE
COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY WHILE THE NW
SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. MEANWHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS JUST W OF 140W WITH A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
E-SE WINDS FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 139W. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER W OF 140W.

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE NW WATERS IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL
COVER THE WATERS 09N TO 24N W OF 129W BY 48 HOURS.

A NEW SET OF NW SWELL WILL ENTER THE FAR NW WATERS BY 24 HOURS
WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT ACROSS THE AREA N OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO
24N129W TO 24N131W BY 48 HOURS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING THEN WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 8 FT THROUGH THE
MORNING.

BROAD 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 12.5N111W MOVING W
AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WHILE WEAKENING TO 1011 MB BY 48 HOURS. A COMBINATION OF
SW AND NW SWELLS WILL RESULT IN SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS LOW.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200933
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU NOV 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-40 KT AS CONFIRMED BY RECENT
ASCAT AND WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. SEAS ARE IN THE 11-16 FT
RANGE IN THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
TAFB-NWPS MODEL GUIDANCE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW
GALE FORCE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH
TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH RESULTANT SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT
BY FRI NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N100W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 12.5N111W TO 09N116W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N116W TO 07N136W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM SE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND
95W...WITHIN 300 NM NE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 109W...
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 115W...
AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 132W AND 136W.

ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 105 NM SW OF
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA WITH THE AREA UNDER UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE.

...DISCUSSION...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N120W TO 23N126W TO
20N140W. NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
SUBSIDE WHILE PROPAGATING SE OVER THE AREA. SEAS OF 8-10 FT ARE
CURRENTLY W OF A LINE FROM 30N117W TO 10N128W TO 07N140W. THE
COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY WHILE THE NW
SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. MEANWHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS JUST W OF 140W WITH A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
E-SE WINDS FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 139W. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER W OF 140W.

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE NW WATERS IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL
COVER THE WATERS 09N TO 24N W OF 129W BY 48 HOURS.

A NEW SET OF NW SWELL WILL ENTER THE FAR NW WATERS BY 24 HOURS
WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT ACROSS THE AREA N OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO
24N129W TO 24N131W BY 48 HOURS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING THEN WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 8 FT THROUGH THE
MORNING.

BROAD 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 12.5N111W MOVING W
AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WHILE WEAKENING TO 1011 MB BY 48 HOURS. A COMBINATION OF
SW AND NW SWELLS WILL RESULT IN SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS LOW.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200933
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU NOV 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-40 KT AS CONFIRMED BY RECENT
ASCAT AND WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. SEAS ARE IN THE 11-16 FT
RANGE IN THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
TAFB-NWPS MODEL GUIDANCE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW
GALE FORCE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH
TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH RESULTANT SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT
BY FRI NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N100W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 12.5N111W TO 09N116W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N116W TO 07N136W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM SE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND
95W...WITHIN 300 NM NE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 109W...
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 115W...
AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 132W AND 136W.

ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 105 NM SW OF
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA WITH THE AREA UNDER UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE.

...DISCUSSION...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N120W TO 23N126W TO
20N140W. NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
SUBSIDE WHILE PROPAGATING SE OVER THE AREA. SEAS OF 8-10 FT ARE
CURRENTLY W OF A LINE FROM 30N117W TO 10N128W TO 07N140W. THE
COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY WHILE THE NW
SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. MEANWHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS JUST W OF 140W WITH A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
E-SE WINDS FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 139W. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER W OF 140W.

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE NW WATERS IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL
COVER THE WATERS 09N TO 24N W OF 129W BY 48 HOURS.

A NEW SET OF NW SWELL WILL ENTER THE FAR NW WATERS BY 24 HOURS
WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT ACROSS THE AREA N OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO
24N129W TO 24N131W BY 48 HOURS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING THEN WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 8 FT THROUGH THE
MORNING.

BROAD 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 12.5N111W MOVING W
AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WHILE WEAKENING TO 1011 MB BY 48 HOURS. A COMBINATION OF
SW AND NW SWELLS WILL RESULT IN SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS LOW.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200933
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU NOV 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-40 KT AS CONFIRMED BY RECENT
ASCAT AND WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. SEAS ARE IN THE 11-16 FT
RANGE IN THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
TAFB-NWPS MODEL GUIDANCE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW
GALE FORCE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH
TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH RESULTANT SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT
BY FRI NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N100W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 12.5N111W TO 09N116W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N116W TO 07N136W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM SE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND
95W...WITHIN 300 NM NE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 109W...
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 115W...
AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 132W AND 136W.

ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 105 NM SW OF
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA WITH THE AREA UNDER UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE.

...DISCUSSION...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N120W TO 23N126W TO
20N140W. NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
SUBSIDE WHILE PROPAGATING SE OVER THE AREA. SEAS OF 8-10 FT ARE
CURRENTLY W OF A LINE FROM 30N117W TO 10N128W TO 07N140W. THE
COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY WHILE THE NW
SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. MEANWHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS JUST W OF 140W WITH A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
E-SE WINDS FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 139W. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER W OF 140W.

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE NW WATERS IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL
COVER THE WATERS 09N TO 24N W OF 129W BY 48 HOURS.

A NEW SET OF NW SWELL WILL ENTER THE FAR NW WATERS BY 24 HOURS
WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT ACROSS THE AREA N OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO
24N129W TO 24N131W BY 48 HOURS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING THEN WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 8 FT THROUGH THE
MORNING.

BROAD 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 12.5N111W MOVING W
AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WHILE WEAKENING TO 1011 MB BY 48 HOURS. A COMBINATION OF
SW AND NW SWELLS WILL RESULT IN SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS LOW.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXNT20 KNHC 200604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...TO 8N17W AND 6N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
6N21W TO 7N36W AND 5N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 17W AND
21W...AND FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE
TROUGH REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N85W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING
FROM MEXICO ALONG 100W...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
RUNS FROM A SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...
TO 27N93W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INLAND INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 15N62W IN THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 15N62W CYCLONIC CENTER COVERS THE
ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN, AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 9N TO 23N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W EASTWARD.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 21N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 63W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO THE WEST OF A LINE THAT CURVES FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...TO 14N81W...TO COSTA RICA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IS FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 80W
WESTWARD.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW
LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW...MAINLY
FROM 12N TO 18N.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
20/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.29 IN
CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND
86W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN LAKE MARACAIBO IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND 87W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS TO THE WEST OF THE COMPARATIVELY
LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND 15N62W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FAIR SKIES ARE PRESENT.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE PRESENT. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500
MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...BEING
TO THE EAST OF A 20N80W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
BAHAMAS AND CUBA RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 29N67W. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY AND IT CONTINUES FROM 29N67W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR
24N76W...CURVING ACROSS CUBA ALONG 22N80W...TO 20N84W...AND TO
HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N66W...TO 26N78W IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
CURVING TO 16N86W IN HONDURAS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...TO 15N33W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N11W TO SOUTHERN MOROCCO. THE FRONT BECOMES A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN MOROCCO...THROUGH THE
WESTERN SAHARA...TO 20N21W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND
23W.

A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N44W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 25W AND 70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
ACPN50 PHFO 200548
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST WED NOV 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

$$

MORRISON





000
ACPN50 PHFO 200548
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST WED NOV 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

$$

MORRISON






000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200505
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PST WED NOV 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a westward-moving trough of low pressure located about 600 miles
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  However, upper-level winds are
expected to be unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation for the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200505
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PST WED NOV 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a westward-moving trough of low pressure located about 600 miles
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  However, upper-level winds are
expected to be unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation for the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABNT20 KNHC 200504
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABNT20 KNHC 200504
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200311
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU NOV 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-40 KT WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF
11-16 FT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY THU MORNING...THEN FURTHER DIMINISH TO
BELOW GALE FORCE BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON...THEN TO 20 KT OR LESS
BY EARLY FRI AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO JUST BELOW 8 FT
EARLY ON FRI.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 07N92W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 12N110W TO 10N120W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A
TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 10N125W TO 07N133W TO
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED
WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 90W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN
130W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

OVER THE WESTERN WATERS...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NEAR 30N120.5W TO 24N124W. THE NW SWELL GENERATED BY THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE AND PROPAGATE SE OVER THE AREA. SEAS
GREATER THAN 8 FT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWELL ARE CURRENTLY W OF A
LINE FROM 30N120W TO 10N134W. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BY EARLY THU WHILE THE NW SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 138W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AND WILL EXPAND THE
COVERAGE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES...COVERING THE AREA FROM 10N
TO 20N W OF 129W BY THU AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY THU BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 20 KT
OR LESS BY THU AFTERNOON.

BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N110W. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A COMBINATION OF SW AND NW SWELLS WILL RESULT IN
SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE VICINITY OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

$$
AL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200311
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU NOV 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-40 KT WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF
11-16 FT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY THU MORNING...THEN FURTHER DIMINISH TO
BELOW GALE FORCE BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON...THEN TO 20 KT OR LESS
BY EARLY FRI AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO JUST BELOW 8 FT
EARLY ON FRI.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 07N92W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 12N110W TO 10N120W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A
TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 10N125W TO 07N133W TO
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED
WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 90W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN
130W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

OVER THE WESTERN WATERS...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NEAR 30N120.5W TO 24N124W. THE NW SWELL GENERATED BY THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE AND PROPAGATE SE OVER THE AREA. SEAS
GREATER THAN 8 FT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWELL ARE CURRENTLY W OF A
LINE FROM 30N120W TO 10N134W. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BY EARLY THU WHILE THE NW SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 138W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AND WILL EXPAND THE
COVERAGE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES...COVERING THE AREA FROM 10N
TO 20N W OF 129W BY THU AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY THU BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 20 KT
OR LESS BY THU AFTERNOON.

BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N110W. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A COMBINATION OF SW AND NW SWELLS WILL RESULT IN
SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE VICINITY OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

$$
AL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200311
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU NOV 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-40 KT WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF
11-16 FT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY THU MORNING...THEN FURTHER DIMINISH TO
BELOW GALE FORCE BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON...THEN TO 20 KT OR LESS
BY EARLY FRI AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO JUST BELOW 8 FT
EARLY ON FRI.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 07N92W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 12N110W TO 10N120W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A
TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 10N125W TO 07N133W TO
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED
WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 90W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN
130W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

OVER THE WESTERN WATERS...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NEAR 30N120.5W TO 24N124W. THE NW SWELL GENERATED BY THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE AND PROPAGATE SE OVER THE AREA. SEAS
GREATER THAN 8 FT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWELL ARE CURRENTLY W OF A
LINE FROM 30N120W TO 10N134W. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BY EARLY THU WHILE THE NW SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 138W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AND WILL EXPAND THE
COVERAGE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES...COVERING THE AREA FROM 10N
TO 20N W OF 129W BY THU AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY THU BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 20 KT
OR LESS BY THU AFTERNOON.

BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N110W. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A COMBINATION OF SW AND NW SWELLS WILL RESULT IN
SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE VICINITY OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

$$
AL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200311
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU NOV 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-40 KT WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF
11-16 FT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY THU MORNING...THEN FURTHER DIMINISH TO
BELOW GALE FORCE BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON...THEN TO 20 KT OR LESS
BY EARLY FRI AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO JUST BELOW 8 FT
EARLY ON FRI.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 07N92W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 12N110W TO 10N120W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A
TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 10N125W TO 07N133W TO
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED
WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 90W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN
130W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

OVER THE WESTERN WATERS...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NEAR 30N120.5W TO 24N124W. THE NW SWELL GENERATED BY THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE AND PROPAGATE SE OVER THE AREA. SEAS
GREATER THAN 8 FT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWELL ARE CURRENTLY W OF A
LINE FROM 30N120W TO 10N134W. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BY EARLY THU WHILE THE NW SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 138W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AND WILL EXPAND THE
COVERAGE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES...COVERING THE AREA FROM 10N
TO 20N W OF 129W BY THU AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY THU BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 20 KT
OR LESS BY THU AFTERNOON.

BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N110W. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A COMBINATION OF SW AND NW SWELLS WILL RESULT IN
SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE VICINITY OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

$$
AL



000
ACPN50 PHFO 192340
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST WED NOV 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

EATON/EVANS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 192340
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST WED NOV 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

EATON/EVANS





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192338
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST WED NOV 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a westward-moving
trough of low pressure located about 600 miles south-southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico have become a little more concentrated this
afternoon.  However, upper-level winds are not currently conducive
for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
AXNT20 KNHC 192336
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N16W TO 8N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 6N31W TO NEAR 7N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 16W-22W AND FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN
45W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS AND INTO THE N GULF OF
MEXICO N OF A LINE FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS IN THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE E OF LINE FROM NAPLES FLORIDA
ALONG 23N85W TO THE E TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF S OF
27N LEAVING MOST OF THE N GULF CLEAR THIS EVENING. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH OVER SE
ALABAMA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST FROM THE NE GULF TO THE SW
GULF THROUGH FRI. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE
NW GULF LATE FRI AND SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA
NEAR SANTA CLARA ALONG 20N85W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR
16N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N82W TO INLAND OVER E
HONDURAS TO NEAR 15N86W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED JUST OFF
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS NEAR 16N82W COVERING ALL BUT THE
FAR E CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE ACROSS E CUBA TO
OVER THE W ATLC AND SW TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE
FROM CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W TO THE FRONT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE W OF THE FRONT TO OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 8N77W ALONG 10N81W TO ACROSS COSTA
RICA NEAR 9N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N W OF 79W. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 64W UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. STATIONARY FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH EARLY THU.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS W OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES THU THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...
SKIES ARE RELATIVELY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING WITH
SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE S COAST.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH KEEP THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED.
HOWEVER...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
COULD STILL PRODUCE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING THROUGH SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND NW ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N63W TO
29N68W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THROUGH THE BAHAMAS NEAR
24N76W TO ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR SANTA CLARA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF
LINE FROM VERO BEACH FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N73W TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE IS W OF THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY A
1031 MB HIGH OVER SE ALABAMA AND A 1030 MB HIGH OVER SE NORTH
CAROLINA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS E CUBA ALONG 26N62W TO BEYOND 32N51W. A CUT OFF
UPPER LOW IS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 16N60W COVERING
THE AREA FROM 10N-22N BETWEEN 55W-64W INCLUDING THE FAR E
CARIBBEAN AND GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAME AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N19W TO 18N28W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N12W E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
22N17W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 20N25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR
31N45W. W ATLC FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH LATE FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 192336
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N16W TO 8N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 6N31W TO NEAR 7N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 16W-22W AND FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN
45W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS AND INTO THE N GULF OF
MEXICO N OF A LINE FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS IN THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE E OF LINE FROM NAPLES FLORIDA
ALONG 23N85W TO THE E TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF S OF
27N LEAVING MOST OF THE N GULF CLEAR THIS EVENING. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH OVER SE
ALABAMA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST FROM THE NE GULF TO THE SW
GULF THROUGH FRI. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE
NW GULF LATE FRI AND SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA
NEAR SANTA CLARA ALONG 20N85W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR
16N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N82W TO INLAND OVER E
HONDURAS TO NEAR 15N86W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED JUST OFF
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS NEAR 16N82W COVERING ALL BUT THE
FAR E CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE ACROSS E CUBA TO
OVER THE W ATLC AND SW TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE
FROM CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W TO THE FRONT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE W OF THE FRONT TO OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 8N77W ALONG 10N81W TO ACROSS COSTA
RICA NEAR 9N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N W OF 79W. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 64W UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. STATIONARY FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH EARLY THU.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS W OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES THU THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...
SKIES ARE RELATIVELY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING WITH
SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE S COAST.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH KEEP THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED.
HOWEVER...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
COULD STILL PRODUCE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING THROUGH SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND NW ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N63W TO
29N68W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THROUGH THE BAHAMAS NEAR
24N76W TO ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR SANTA CLARA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF
LINE FROM VERO BEACH FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N73W TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE IS W OF THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY A
1031 MB HIGH OVER SE ALABAMA AND A 1030 MB HIGH OVER SE NORTH
CAROLINA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS E CUBA ALONG 26N62W TO BEYOND 32N51W. A CUT OFF
UPPER LOW IS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 16N60W COVERING
THE AREA FROM 10N-22N BETWEEN 55W-64W INCLUDING THE FAR E
CARIBBEAN AND GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAME AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N19W TO 18N28W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N12W E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
22N17W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 20N25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR
31N45W. W ATLC FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH LATE FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 192336
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N16W TO 8N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 6N31W TO NEAR 7N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 16W-22W AND FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN
45W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS AND INTO THE N GULF OF
MEXICO N OF A LINE FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS IN THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE E OF LINE FROM NAPLES FLORIDA
ALONG 23N85W TO THE E TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF S OF
27N LEAVING MOST OF THE N GULF CLEAR THIS EVENING. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH OVER SE
ALABAMA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST FROM THE NE GULF TO THE SW
GULF THROUGH FRI. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE
NW GULF LATE FRI AND SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA
NEAR SANTA CLARA ALONG 20N85W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR
16N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N82W TO INLAND OVER E
HONDURAS TO NEAR 15N86W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED JUST OFF
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS NEAR 16N82W COVERING ALL BUT THE
FAR E CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE ACROSS E CUBA TO
OVER THE W ATLC AND SW TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE
FROM CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W TO THE FRONT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE W OF THE FRONT TO OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 8N77W ALONG 10N81W TO ACROSS COSTA
RICA NEAR 9N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N W OF 79W. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 64W UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. STATIONARY FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH EARLY THU.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS W OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES THU THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...
SKIES ARE RELATIVELY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING WITH
SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE S COAST.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH KEEP THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED.
HOWEVER...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
COULD STILL PRODUCE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING THROUGH SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND NW ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N63W TO
29N68W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THROUGH THE BAHAMAS NEAR
24N76W TO ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR SANTA CLARA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF
LINE FROM VERO BEACH FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N73W TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE IS W OF THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY A
1031 MB HIGH OVER SE ALABAMA AND A 1030 MB HIGH OVER SE NORTH
CAROLINA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS E CUBA ALONG 26N62W TO BEYOND 32N51W. A CUT OFF
UPPER LOW IS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 16N60W COVERING
THE AREA FROM 10N-22N BETWEEN 55W-64W INCLUDING THE FAR E
CARIBBEAN AND GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAME AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N19W TO 18N28W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N12W E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
22N17W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 20N25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR
31N45W. W ATLC FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH LATE FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 192336
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N16W TO 8N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 6N31W TO NEAR 7N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 16W-22W AND FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN
45W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS AND INTO THE N GULF OF
MEXICO N OF A LINE FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS IN THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE E OF LINE FROM NAPLES FLORIDA
ALONG 23N85W TO THE E TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF S OF
27N LEAVING MOST OF THE N GULF CLEAR THIS EVENING. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH OVER SE
ALABAMA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST FROM THE NE GULF TO THE SW
GULF THROUGH FRI. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE
NW GULF LATE FRI AND SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA
NEAR SANTA CLARA ALONG 20N85W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR
16N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N82W TO INLAND OVER E
HONDURAS TO NEAR 15N86W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED JUST OFF
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS NEAR 16N82W COVERING ALL BUT THE
FAR E CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE ACROSS E CUBA TO
OVER THE W ATLC AND SW TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE
FROM CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W TO THE FRONT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE W OF THE FRONT TO OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 8N77W ALONG 10N81W TO ACROSS COSTA
RICA NEAR 9N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N W OF 79W. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 64W UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. STATIONARY FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH EARLY THU.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS W OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES THU THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...
SKIES ARE RELATIVELY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING WITH
SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE S COAST.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH KEEP THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED.
HOWEVER...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
COULD STILL PRODUCE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING THROUGH SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND NW ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N63W TO
29N68W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THROUGH THE BAHAMAS NEAR
24N76W TO ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR SANTA CLARA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF
LINE FROM VERO BEACH FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N73W TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE IS W OF THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY A
1031 MB HIGH OVER SE ALABAMA AND A 1030 MB HIGH OVER SE NORTH
CAROLINA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS E CUBA ALONG 26N62W TO BEYOND 32N51W. A CUT OFF
UPPER LOW IS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 16N60W COVERING
THE AREA FROM 10N-22N BETWEEN 55W-64W INCLUDING THE FAR E
CARIBBEAN AND GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAME AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N19W TO 18N28W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N12W E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
22N17W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 20N25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR
31N45W. W ATLC FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH LATE FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
ABNT20 KNHC 192319
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABNT20 KNHC 192319
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 192319
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
700 PM EST MIERCOLES 19 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN





000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192128
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED NOV 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...COLD DENSE AIR IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT
GRADIENT PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-40 KT WITH SEAS IN THE
RANGE OF 11-17 FT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AS WINDS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUE TO VEER...WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY THU
MORNING...THEN FURTHER DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE BY EARLY THU
AFTERNOON...THEN TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY FRI AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE TO 11 FT BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON...AND TO JUST BELOW
8 FT EARLY ON FRI.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 08N90W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 11N110W TO 07N129W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A
TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTEND TO  BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 111W AND
118W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 120W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 75 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 133W AND
138W.

...DISCUSSION...

OVER THE WESTERN WATERS...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NEAR 30N121W TO 23.5N127W THEN STATIONARY TO 21N140W. THE NW
SWELL GENERATED BY THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE AND PROPAGATE
SE OVER THE AREA. SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SWELL ARE CURRENTLY W OF A LINE FROM 30N121W TO 12N135W. THE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY THU WHILE THE NW
SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ IS
RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 135W.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AND WILL
EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES...COVERING THE
AREA FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 129W BY THU AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS. WINDS
WILL ONCE AGAIN PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO EARLY THU BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS. BY
THU AFTERNOON.

BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 11N110W. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A COMBINATION OF SW AND NW SWELLS WILL RESULT IN
SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THIS LOW BY THU EVENING.

$$
AL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192128
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED NOV 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...COLD DENSE AIR IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT
GRADIENT PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-40 KT WITH SEAS IN THE
RANGE OF 11-17 FT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AS WINDS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUE TO VEER...WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY THU
MORNING...THEN FURTHER DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE BY EARLY THU
AFTERNOON...THEN TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY FRI AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE TO 11 FT BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON...AND TO JUST BELOW
8 FT EARLY ON FRI.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 08N90W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 11N110W TO 07N129W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A
TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTEND TO  BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 111W AND
118W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 120W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 75 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 133W AND
138W.

...DISCUSSION...

OVER THE WESTERN WATERS...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NEAR 30N121W TO 23.5N127W THEN STATIONARY TO 21N140W. THE NW
SWELL GENERATED BY THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE AND PROPAGATE
SE OVER THE AREA. SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SWELL ARE CURRENTLY W OF A LINE FROM 30N121W TO 12N135W. THE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY THU WHILE THE NW
SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ IS
RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 135W.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AND WILL
EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES...COVERING THE
AREA FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 129W BY THU AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS. WINDS
WILL ONCE AGAIN PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO EARLY THU BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS. BY
THU AFTERNOON.

BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 11N110W. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A COMBINATION OF SW AND NW SWELLS WILL RESULT IN
SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THIS LOW BY THU EVENING.

$$
AL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192128
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED NOV 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...COLD DENSE AIR IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT
GRADIENT PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-40 KT WITH SEAS IN THE
RANGE OF 11-17 FT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AS WINDS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUE TO VEER...WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY THU
MORNING...THEN FURTHER DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE BY EARLY THU
AFTERNOON...THEN TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY FRI AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE TO 11 FT BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON...AND TO JUST BELOW
8 FT EARLY ON FRI.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 08N90W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 11N110W TO 07N129W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A
TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTEND TO  BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 111W AND
118W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 120W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 75 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 133W AND
138W.

...DISCUSSION...

OVER THE WESTERN WATERS...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NEAR 30N121W TO 23.5N127W THEN STATIONARY TO 21N140W. THE NW
SWELL GENERATED BY THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE AND PROPAGATE
SE OVER THE AREA. SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SWELL ARE CURRENTLY W OF A LINE FROM 30N121W TO 12N135W. THE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY THU WHILE THE NW
SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ IS
RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 135W.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AND WILL
EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES...COVERING THE
AREA FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 129W BY THU AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS. WINDS
WILL ONCE AGAIN PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO EARLY THU BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS. BY
THU AFTERNOON.

BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 11N110W. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A COMBINATION OF SW AND NW SWELLS WILL RESULT IN
SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THIS LOW BY THU EVENING.

$$
AL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192128
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED NOV 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...COLD DENSE AIR IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT
GRADIENT PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-40 KT WITH SEAS IN THE
RANGE OF 11-17 FT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AS WINDS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUE TO VEER...WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY THU
MORNING...THEN FURTHER DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE BY EARLY THU
AFTERNOON...THEN TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY FRI AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE TO 11 FT BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON...AND TO JUST BELOW
8 FT EARLY ON FRI.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 08N90W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 11N110W TO 07N129W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A
TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTEND TO  BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 111W AND
118W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 120W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 75 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 133W AND
138W.

...DISCUSSION...

OVER THE WESTERN WATERS...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NEAR 30N121W TO 23.5N127W THEN STATIONARY TO 21N140W. THE NW
SWELL GENERATED BY THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE AND PROPAGATE
SE OVER THE AREA. SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SWELL ARE CURRENTLY W OF A LINE FROM 30N121W TO 12N135W. THE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY THU WHILE THE NW
SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ IS
RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 135W.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AND WILL
EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES...COVERING THE
AREA FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 129W BY THU AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS. WINDS
WILL ONCE AGAIN PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO EARLY THU BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS. BY
THU AFTERNOON.

BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 11N110W. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A COMBINATION OF SW AND NW SWELLS WILL RESULT IN
SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THIS LOW BY THU EVENING.

$$
AL



000
AXNT20 KNHC 191805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 9N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 6N30W 6N40W TO 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 17W-28W AND FROM 4N-12N
BETWEEN 30W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH CENTERS OVER THE SE
CONUS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE THE GULF WITH NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IN
THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT...INCREASING TO 20 KT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SW AND SE GULF...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE PASSAGE OF A
FORMER COLD FRONT NOW ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE
SW N ATLC AND THE NW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO ENHANCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKIES COVER MOST OF THE BASIN S OF 28N BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER-
LEVEL MOIST AIR STREAMING NE FROM THE E PACIFIC WATERS.
HOWEVER...DRY STABLE AIR AT THE LOWER-LEVELS SUPPORT STABILITY
AND FAIR WEATHER IN THIS REGION. SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE SE CONUS REMAINS STATIONARY AND THEN DRIFTS NE FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS BEING ANALYZED ACROSS THE SW N ATLC SW
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THEN ALONG 21N80W 19N85W TO NE GUATEMALA
NEAR 15N88W. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO BE ANALYZED ALONG 19N83W TO NORTH-CENTRAL HONDURAS
NEAR 15N86W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF 81W. ON THE
SW BASIN...THE MONSOON TROUGH ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COASTLINE FROM SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA TO CENTRAL PANAMA. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT
SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NW BASIN BY THU NIGHT TO FRI MORNING. SHOWERS
IN THIS REGION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

HISPANIOLA...

DEEP LAYER DRY AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND AND COASTAL
WATERS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE SHALLOW MOIST
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...THUS ENHANCING SOME
SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
ANALYZED FROM 30N65W SW TO 25N74W TO NORTHERN CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
22N78W AND THEN ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE MOISTURE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS WITHIN
100 NM EAST OF IT. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN
ATLC EXTENDING SW TO 40W...THUS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ALONG
30N13W TO 21N22W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE TO 18N28W. SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE N OF 20N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB
HIGH NEAR 32N44W. THE FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THEN A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MERGES WITH IT TO DRIFT IT TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL BASIN SAT MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
ACPN50 PHFO 191740
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST WED NOV 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

EATON/EVANS





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191735
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST WED NOV 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a westward-moving
trough of low pressure located about 600 miles south-southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico have become less organized since yesterday.
Upper-level winds have also become less conducive for tropical
cyclone formation and the chance of development of this system has
decreased.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
ABNT20 KNHC 191722
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABNT20 KNHC 191722
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABNT20 KNHC 191722
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABNT20 KNHC 191722
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 191722
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
100 PM EST MIERCOLES 19 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 191722
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
100 PM EST MIERCOLES 19 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN






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