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000
ACPN50 PHFO 311735
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST FRI OCT 31 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

$$







000
AXNT20 KNHC 311731
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ON 01 NOV 1800 UTC FROM 31N74W TO 23N80.5W. A GALE IS FORECAST
TO BE N OF 29N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W WITH W WINDS 30 TO 35 KT AND
SEAS OF 12 TO 16 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NOV 02 AT 1200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO THIS MAP...WHICH IS
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
17N54W TO 10N56W. THIS FEATURE WAS PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED AS A
TROUGH...BUT AFTER FURTHER ANALYSIS USING LONG-RANGE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...TPW IMAGERY...AND OBSERVATIONS...ITS WAVE
CHARACTERISTICS WERE NOTED. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS IN THE
ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE...ENHANCING MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
11N-17N BETWEEN 51W-57W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING S OF JAMAICA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
17N77W TO 11N78W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. A MOIST ENVIRONMENT
CONTINUES ACROSS THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 76W-78W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES TO 09N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS
NEAR 09N18W AND CONTINUES TO 05N28W TO 06N37W TO 05N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-11N BETWEEN 18W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN US CONTINUES SUPPORTING A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF FROM 24N92W TO
27N82W. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING FROM 22N93W TO
18N93W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THIS AXIS OVER THE
MEXICO COAST. TO THE NW...A WEAKER COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO...ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF
26N...W OF 96W. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PAIRED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 18N...W OF
83W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. REFER TO
THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
PAIRED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AT THE SURFACE IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION S OF 12N. TO THE E...A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED AT
ABOUT 250 NM NE OF FAJARDO...PUERTO RICO...ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE ISLAND AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE W...AND FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO ADVECT
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 29N81W TO A 1007 MB LOW NEAR
32N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 70 NM OF
THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM
30N76W TO 26N80W. A 1007 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 27N74W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTEND FROM IT TO 31N72W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN 67W-71W. TO THE E...A 1009 MB
LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 23N65W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
IT TO 26N64W. THESE FEATURES ARE ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 18N-
29N BETWEEN 56W-66W AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS. A LARGE
1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 37N37W
WITH FAIR WEATHER PREVAILING. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 26N33W TO 33N18W AND CONNECTS TO A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
INTO THE N ATLANTIC.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311728
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Vance, located several hundred miles south of Acapulco,
Mexico.

A broad area of low pressure has formed about 1150 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  Some gradual
development of this system is possible before upper-level winds
become less favorable early next week.  The low is expected to move
toward the west-southwest at 5 to 10 mph over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low..10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABNT20 KNHC 311710
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311524
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM VANCE IS THE 20TH NAMED STORM OF THE EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. VANCE IS CENTERED NEAR 10.1N
100.8W OR ABOUT 475 NM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AT 31/1500 UTC
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 195 DEGREES AT 3 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 97W AND 102W. GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS VANCE MOVES
TO THE W. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND A COLD
FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TROPICAL STORM VANCE TO THE S IS
FUNNELING NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH CHIVELA PASS. THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATER THIS MORNING AS
DRAINAGE FLOW REACHES A MAXIMUM. STRONG VERTICAL MIXING OF THE
WINDS ALOFT IS EXPECTED AS THE COLD...DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
MOVES OVER THE WARM WATER IN PLACE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40 KT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N83W TO 10N94W...THEN RESUMES FROM 9N108W
TO 12N125W TO 12N131W. ITCZ FROM 12N131W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 3N BETWEEN 78-82W AND WITHIN
60 NM S OF AXIS FROM 121W-123W.

...DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA AND EXTENDS FROM
30N128W TO 25N140W. NW SWELL 8 TO 11 FT NW OF THE FRONT. THIS
SWELL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD AS HIGH AS 12 FT. AS THE COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO DISSIPATE EARLY SAT...HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
OVER N WATERS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE MONSOON TROUGH...WITH TRADEWINDS
INCREASING TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE OVER WATERS N OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ TO 21N AND W OF 130W.

$$
DGS



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 311437
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...VANCE MOVING ERRATICALLY WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 100.8W
ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 195 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.8 WEST. VANCE IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A WEST-
SOUTHWEST MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY.  A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND VANCE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 311437
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
1500 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 100.8W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 195 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 100.8W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 100.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z  9.7N 101.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z  9.6N 103.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 10.2N 105.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.4N 107.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.0N 109.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 19.3N 107.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 23.5N 105.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 100.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 311437
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
1500 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 100.8W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 195 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 100.8W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 100.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z  9.7N 101.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z  9.6N 103.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 10.2N 105.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.4N 107.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.0N 109.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 19.3N 107.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 23.5N 105.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 100.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





000
WTPQ31 PGUM 311423
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NURI ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202014
1223 AM CHST SAT NOV 1 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM NURI...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.9N 135.1E

ABOUT 310 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP
ABOUT 390 MILES NORTH OF KOROR
ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF GUAM AND
ABOUT 720 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W...280 DEGREES AT 11 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 AM CHST...1300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NURI WILL
BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.1
DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM NURI IS MOVING WEST AT 11 MPH. NURI IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
NURI IS FORECASTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE WEEKEND.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM NURI WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY 800 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

WILLIAMS




000
WTPQ31 PGUM 311423
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NURI ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202014
1223 AM CHST SAT NOV 1 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM NURI...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.9N 135.1E

ABOUT 310 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP
ABOUT 390 MILES NORTH OF KOROR
ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF GUAM AND
ABOUT 720 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W...280 DEGREES AT 11 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 AM CHST...1300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NURI WILL
BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.1
DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM NURI IS MOVING WEST AT 11 MPH. NURI IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
NURI IS FORECASTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE WEEKEND.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM NURI WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY 800 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

WILLIAMS





000
ACPN50 PHFO 311155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST FRI OCT 31 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

$$

KINEL





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311144
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Vance, located several hundred miles south of Acapulco,
Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 311132
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT VIERNES 31 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.


$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN





000
ABNT20 KNHC 311132
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
AXNT20 KNHC 311109
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE 36-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN CONSISTS OF A COLD
FRONT FROM 31N74W TO 23N80.5W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WESTERLY WINDS
AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 12 FEET TO 16 FEET TO THE NORTH OF
29N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N76W BETWEEN HAITI AND
JAMAICA...15N76W...TO 10N77W AT THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE WAVE
IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN
HAITI AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS
NEAR THE BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 8N13W...TO 7N15W 6N23W AND 6N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 6N25W TO 4N32W AND 4N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 17W AND 22W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 5N
FROM 30W EASTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 5N
TO 11N BETWEEN 27W AND 54W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N53W 13N55W 10N57W.
THIS TROUGH SHOWS UP WELL IN THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN
CLUSTERS FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 52W AND 56W. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A....TO THE FLORIDA...AND FROM NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N77W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...TO
24N92W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CURVES ALONG
THE FLORIDA COAST FROM 28N80W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS...TO THE
NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IN MOST PLACES
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR THAT PART THAT IS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TOWARD THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER...TO
NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO...TOWARD THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 6 HOURS...IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG 93W/94W...FROM 22N INTO THE CENTRAL ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 22N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 90W AND MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

OVERCAST CLOUDS AT 7000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED AT KXIH.
OVERCAST CLOUDS AT 6500 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED AT KVBS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS IS BEING REPORTED IN TEXAS IN...
HARLINGEN AND ALICE. A CLOUD CEILING AT 7000 FEET IS BEING
OBSERVED AT THE PEARLAND REGIONAL AIRPORT IN THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED
AT BROOKSVILLE-TAMPA BAY IN FLORIDA. LIGHT RAIN WAS OBSERVED
DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS IN THE FORT MYERS FLORIDA AREA.

...FROM THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS BETWEEN 60W AND
THE U.S.A...INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N66W...TO 19N64W...TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF VENEZUELA. ONE SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM
30N70W TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N73W TO
23N73W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 32N FROM 65W WESTWARD.
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 65W FROM 17N IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO 26N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 22N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 58W AND 63W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 64W AND 65W
IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM A
RIDGE...COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 70W AND YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE 19N76W
10N77W TROPICAL WAVE.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.16 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N73W IN COLOMBIA TO 7N77W...THROUGH
8N81W IN PANAMA...ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA...AND BEYOND
10N85W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 6N
TO 10N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W INCLUDING IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA. NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
2N FROM 81W EASTWARD...AND IN THE COSTA RICA COASTAL WATERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING
ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. THIS WIND FLOW IS ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE THAT IS ON TOP OF THE 19N76W 10N77W
TROPICAL WAVE.

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA
TO PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB...FOR 500 MB...AND FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A RIDGE WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO 27N30W AND 25N34W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 30N23W. THE COLD
FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 30N23W TO 27N26W AND 24N33W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N17W 24N26W 23N37W
24N50W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N38W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO
10N44W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO
22N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 34W AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310913
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM VANCE IS THE 20TH NAMED STORM OF THE EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. VANCE IS CENTERED NEAR 10.5N
101.0W OR ABOUT 390 NM...725 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AT 31/0900
UTC MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 3 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 240 NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 90 NM NW QUADRANT OF CENTER. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS VANCE MOVES TO THE W. SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM AROUND 1600 UTC THU SHOWED 20-30 KT NLY
WINDS ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND TROPICAL STORM VANCE TO THE S IS FUNNELING NORTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH CHIVELA PASS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE LATER THIS MORNING AS DRAINAGE FLOW REACHES A
MAXIMUM. STRONG VERTICAL MIXING OF THE WINDS ALOFT IS EXPECTED
AS THE COLD...DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE WARM WATER
IN PLACE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40
KT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS
EVENING. THIS GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AT
LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD EARLY SUN MORNING
AND WILL LIKELY BE THE SECOND GALE FORCE EVENT OF THE COLD
SEASON 2014-2015.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 10N86W TO 09N92W
TO 10N96W...THEN RESUMES FROM 10N105W TO 12N122W TO 08N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OVER WATERS WITHIN
120 NM N AND 240 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 89W AND FROM 12N TO 14N
BETWEEN 88W AND 93W.

...DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA AND EXTENDS FROM
30N131W TO 25N140W. WINDS AT OR ABOVE A STRONG BREEZE NEAR THE
FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. NW SWELL TO 9 FT CAN BE
FOUND OVER THE FAR NW WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SWELL IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SEAS
EXPECTED TO BUILD AS HIGH AS 12 FT. AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE EARLY SAT...HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER N
WATERS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE MONSOON TROUGH...WITH TRADEWINDS
INCREASING TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE OVER WATERS N OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ TO 21N AND W OF 130W.

NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO A
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE EARLY SUN AS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

$$
SCHAUER



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 310857
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202014
800 PM CHST FRI OCT 31 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.7N 136.0E

ABOUT  265 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP
ABOUT  310 MILES NORTHWEST OF ULITHI
ABOUT  365 MILES NORTHWEST OF FAIS
ABOUT  390 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KOROR
ABOUT  590 MILES WEST OF GUAM AND
ABOUT  675 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W...265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W
WILL BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 136.0
DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W IS MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION
20W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W IS
FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W WILL BE
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

$$

SIMPSON





000
WTPZ31 KNHC 310836
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...VANCE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.5N 101.0W
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST. VANCE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A WEST-
SOUTHWEST MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TODAY.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 310836
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...VANCE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.5N 101.0W
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST. VANCE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A WEST-
SOUTHWEST MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TODAY.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 310836
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...VANCE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.5N 101.0W
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST. VANCE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A WEST-
SOUTHWEST MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TODAY.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 310836
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...VANCE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.5N 101.0W
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST. VANCE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A WEST-
SOUTHWEST MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TODAY.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



000
WTPZ21 KNHC 310835
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
0900 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 101.0W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 101.0W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 100.6W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 10.1N 101.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z  9.8N 103.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 10.0N 104.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 10.9N 106.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 18.5N 109.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 22.5N 106.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.5N 101.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 310835
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
0900 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 101.0W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 101.0W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 100.6W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 10.1N 101.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z  9.8N 103.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 10.0N 104.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 10.9N 106.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 18.5N 109.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 22.5N 106.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.5N 101.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 310739
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT VIERNES 31 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.


$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN





000
AXNT20 KNHC 310605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE 42-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN CONSISTS OF A COLD
FRONT FROM 31N77W TO 26N80W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE SOUTHWEST WIND
CONDITIONS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 16 FEET TO
THE NORTH OF 28N WITHIN 120 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N75W BETWEEN HAITI AND
JAMAICA...14N76W...TO 10N76W AT THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE WAVE
IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN CLUSTERS IN THE GULF OF URABA
OF COLOMBIA...IN LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN
COLOMBIA WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 11N73W...AND IN THE COASTAL
WATERS OF COLOMBIA WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 12N74W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ALONG 70W ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 9N13W...TO 7N17W AND 7N28W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
7N28W TO 8N45W 10N53W...TO THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF GUYANA
AND VENEZUELA NEAR 8N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
32W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15N52W 12N55W 8N55W.
THIS TROUGH SHOWS UP WELL IN THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN
CLUSTERS FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 49W AND 58W. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 16N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A....TO THE FLORIDA...AND FROM NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N78W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...TO
24N92W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG
28N81W IN FLORIDA...TO 26N82W AND 23N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY IN MOST PLACES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR THAT
PART THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 24N83W 24N90W 22N96W 19N96W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 29N83W 26N90W 26N97W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER...TO
NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO...TOWARD THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG 21N94W...INTO THE CENTRAL ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 23N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 90W AND MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KOPM AND KGVX.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED.

...FROM THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS BETWEEN 60W AND
THE U.S.A...INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N66W...TO 19N64W...TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF VENEZUELA. ONE SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM
30N70W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N73W TO
23N73W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 65W AND
73W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 64W/65W FROM 17N IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO 26N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A 1008 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 21N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 21N TO 24N
BETWEEN 59W AND 62W...WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 26N57W...AND IN
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 62W AND
65W.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM A
RIDGE...COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 70W AND YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERCA. A RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE 19N75W
10N76W TROPICAL WAVE.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.16 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N74W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 8N78W IN
PANAMA...ACROSS THE REST OF PANAMA...AND BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W...ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN 81W AND 84W...IN COLOMBIA AND ITS COASTAL
WATERS FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA...AND IN
COLOMBIA FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 73W AND 74W.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB...FOR 500 MB...AND FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A RIDGE WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 27N27W AND
24N34W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 16N38W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO
10N44W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO
22N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 39W AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
ACPN50 PHFO 310555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST THU OCT 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

$$

KINEL





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 310500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Vance, located several hundred miles south-southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Vance are issued under WMO
header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABNT20 KNHC 310500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 310500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Vance, located several hundred miles south-southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Vance are issued under WMO
header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABNT20 KNHC 310500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310248
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM VANCE IS THE 20TH NAMED STORM OF THE TROPICAL
SEASON. VANCE IS CENTERED NEAR 10.8N 101.3W OR ABOUT 375
NM...695 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AT 31/0300 UTC MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40
KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF
THE CYCLONE REMAINS NEAR THE SW EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION BUT
IN GENERAL THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE STORM HAS IMPROVED
WITH A DISTINCT BAND TO THE NE AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM NE
SEMICIRCLE. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN
IN A BAND ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 97W AND 100W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 100W
AND 105W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
STARTING AT 01/0000 UTC. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED
OBSERVATIONS OF 20-30 KT NLY WINDS ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION
THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FURTHER INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE BY FRI EVENING. THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
SAT. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 12-16 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
BY EARLY SAT. THIS GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH LATE SUN MORNING AND WILL LIKELY BE THE SECOND GALE
FORCE EVENT OF THE COLD SEASON 2014-2015. WINDS MAY REACH AGAIN
MINIMAL GALE FORCE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 08N90W TO 10N97W THEN
RESUMES W OF T.S. VANCE FROM 09N105W TO 08N110W TO 13N121W TO
09N133W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 09N133W TO 08N140W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 08N TO 10N
BETWEEN 84W AND 87W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO
08N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W.

...DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA AND EXTENDS FROM
30N132W TO 26N140W FOLLOWED BY MAINLY MODERATE NLY WINDS. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH A POSITION FROM 30N128W TO 27N132W TO
23N140W BY FRI MORNING WHILE IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN W OF 130W.
THEN...FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS
THROUGH SAT WHILE WEAKENING. A NEW SET OF NW SWELL IS EXPECTED
TO FOLLOW THE FRONT. A MODERATE TO STRONG HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE
WEST-CENTRAL WATERS LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. MARINE GUIDANCE
SUGGEST A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS FROM 13N
TO 22N W OF 132W WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT BY EARLY SAT
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY SAT EVENING WITH THE SWELL
EVENT SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS
OF 8-12 FT IN NW SWELL W OF A LINE FROM 30N119W TO 20N130W TO
11N134W BY SAT EVENING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB IS CENTERED SE OF THE FRONT NEAR
27N130W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 22N112W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE W WATERS GENERALLY FROM 10N TO
18N W OF 120W.

LOOKING AHEAD...A GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
EARLY SUN AS THE GULF OF MEXICO STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 9 FT.

$$
GR



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 310232
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
800 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

...VANCE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.8N 101.3W
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.3 WEST.  VANCE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H.  A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 310231
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
0300 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 101.3W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 101.3W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 101.1W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 10.4N 102.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 10.0N 103.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z  9.9N 105.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 10.4N 107.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.9N 110.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 17.1N 110.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.8N 101.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI





000
WTPZ21 KNHC 310231
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
0300 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 101.3W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 101.3W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 101.1W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 10.4N 102.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 10.0N 103.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z  9.9N 105.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 10.4N 107.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.9N 110.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 17.1N 110.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.8N 101.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI





000
WTPZ21 KNHC 310231
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
0300 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 101.3W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 101.3W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 101.1W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 10.4N 102.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 10.0N 103.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z  9.9N 105.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 10.4N 107.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.9N 110.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 17.1N 110.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.8N 101.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI





000
WTPZ21 KNHC 310231
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
0300 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 101.3W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 101.3W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 101.1W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 10.4N 102.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 10.0N 103.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z  9.9N 105.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 10.4N 107.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.9N 110.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 17.1N 110.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.8N 101.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI





000
WTPQ31 PGUM 310154
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202014
200 PM CHST FRI OCT 31 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W FORMS IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.8N 136.8E

ABOUT  245 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP
ABOUT  275 MILES NORTHWEST OF ULITHI
ABOUT  330 MILES NORTHWEST OF FAIS
ABOUT  415 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KOROR
ABOUT  535 MILES WEST OF GUAM AND
ABOUT  620 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W...260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W
WILL BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 136.8
DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W IS MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION
20W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W IS
FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W WILL BE
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

MCELROY





000
WTPQ31 PGUM 310154
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202014
200 PM CHST FRI OCT 31 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W FORMS IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.8N 136.8E

ABOUT  245 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP
ABOUT  275 MILES NORTHWEST OF ULITHI
ABOUT  330 MILES NORTHWEST OF FAIS
ABOUT  415 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KOROR
ABOUT  535 MILES WEST OF GUAM AND
ABOUT  620 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W...260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W
WILL BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 136.8
DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W IS MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION
20W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W IS
FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W WILL BE
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

MCELROY





000
WTPQ31 PGUM 310154
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202014
200 PM CHST FRI OCT 31 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W FORMS IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.8N 136.8E

ABOUT  245 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP
ABOUT  275 MILES NORTHWEST OF ULITHI
ABOUT  330 MILES NORTHWEST OF FAIS
ABOUT  415 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KOROR
ABOUT  535 MILES WEST OF GUAM AND
ABOUT  620 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W...260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W
WILL BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 136.8
DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W IS MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION
20W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W IS
FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W WILL BE
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

MCELROY





000
WTPQ31 PGUM 310154
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202014
200 PM CHST FRI OCT 31 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W FORMS IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.8N 136.8E

ABOUT  245 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP
ABOUT  275 MILES NORTHWEST OF ULITHI
ABOUT  330 MILES NORTHWEST OF FAIS
ABOUT  415 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KOROR
ABOUT  535 MILES WEST OF GUAM AND
ABOUT  620 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W...260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W
WILL BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 136.8
DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W IS MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION
20W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W IS
FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W WILL BE
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

MCELROY





000
WTPQ31 PGUM 310154
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202014
200 PM CHST FRI OCT 31 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W FORMS IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.8N 136.8E

ABOUT  245 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP
ABOUT  275 MILES NORTHWEST OF ULITHI
ABOUT  330 MILES NORTHWEST OF FAIS
ABOUT  415 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KOROR
ABOUT  535 MILES WEST OF GUAM AND
ABOUT  620 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W...260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W
WILL BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 136.8
DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W IS MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION
20W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W IS
FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W WILL BE
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

MCELROY






000
WTPQ31 PGUM 310154
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202014
200 PM CHST FRI OCT 31 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W FORMS IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.8N 136.8E

ABOUT  245 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP
ABOUT  275 MILES NORTHWEST OF ULITHI
ABOUT  330 MILES NORTHWEST OF FAIS
ABOUT  415 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KOROR
ABOUT  535 MILES WEST OF GUAM AND
ABOUT  620 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W...260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W
WILL BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 136.8
DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W IS MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION
20W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W IS
FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W WILL BE
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

MCELROY





000
AXNT20 KNHC 310004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ON 01 NOV 1800 UTC FROM 31N77W TO 26N80W. A GALE IS FORECAST TO
BE N OF 28N WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT WITH SW WINDS 30-35 KT.
SEAS OF 10-15 FT ARE EXPECTED. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO LAST
UNTIL 02 NOV 1200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N74W TO 11N74W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES AROUND THIS WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 69W-77W TO INCLUDE OVER
JAMAICA AND HAITI.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 8N13W AND CONTINUES TO 7N26W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR
7N26W AND CONTINUES TO 9N40W TO 8N48W TO 11N60W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN 18W-28W...
FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 41W-45W...AND FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 54W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST S OF ST
AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AT 29N81W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT
25N90W TO S OF MATAMOROS MEXICO AT 25N98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 27N83W TO 23N87W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N94W TO
18N94W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 92W-
95W. 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
90W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE.
FURTHER W...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W S OF 20N. FURTHERMORE...A MONSOON
TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...N COLOMBIA...AND PANAMA... S
OF 11N. ELSEWHERE...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS NEAR 21N65W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N TO 17N
BETWEEN 62W-65W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS
WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF 80W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W...AND FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO
AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PREVAIL
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT AN AREA UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO
MOVE E OF THE ISLAND. ALSO EXPECT PREFRONTAL CONVECTION TO
APPROACH E CUBA AND HAITI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N79W TO ST AUGUSTINE
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1009
MB LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N73W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N69W TO THE LOW CENTER TO THE S BAHAMAS AT
23N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1008
MB LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 21N65W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-24N
BETWEEN 61W-65W. A LARGE 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 38N47W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC FROM 21N26W TO 25N40W DISSIPATING TO 25N50W. OF NOTE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N63W
WITH DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER ENHANCING SHOWERS FROM 22N-30N
BETWEEN 50W-60W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
TROPICS NEAR 17N38W ALSO ENHANCING SHOWERS E OF THE CENTER
FROM 13N-23N BETWEEN 30W-35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
ACPN50 PHFO 302355
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST THU OCT 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

$$







000
ACCA62 TJSJ 302308
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT JUEVES 30 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.


$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302307
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on
recently upgraded Tropical Storm Vance, located several hundred
miles south of Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Vance are issued under WMO
header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
ABNT20 KNHC 302306
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.


$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302154
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU OCT 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
VANCE AT 30/2100 UTC. THIS IS THE 20TH NAMED STORM OF THE
TROPICAL SEASON. AT THIS TIME...IT IS CENTERED NEAR 11.0N 101.0W
OR ABOUT 360 NM...665 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MOVING W OR 260
DEGREES AT 4 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST
LATER TODAY...WITH A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
VANCE SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST ON SATURDAY. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR VANCE REACHING HURRICANE STATUS ON SUN. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM NE
SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO IN A BAND FROM 09N TO 10N BETWEEN 101W
AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE
FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 96W AND 100W. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
STARTING AT 01/0000 UTC. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH FRI AND HELP TO INITIATE A NEW ROUND
OF NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE FRI EVENING. EXPECT
BUILDING SEAS OF 12-16 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BY EARLY SAT.
THIS GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE
SUN MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 10N98W THEN RESUMES W OF
T.S. VANCE FROM 10N105W TO 12N123W TO 10N132W. ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES FROM 10N132W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 03N E OF 82W...INCLUDING THE
GULF OF PANAMA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN
82W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 119W AND 126W.

...DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA AND EXTENDS FROM
FROM 30N135W TO 27N140W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH A
POSITION FROM 30N125W TO 26N130W TO 23N140W BY FRI AFTERNOON
WHILE IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN W OF 130W. BY THAT TIME...MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL NW OF THE FRONT WITH A NEW SET OF NW
SWELL BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THEREAFTER...BY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...MODERATE
TO STRONG HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS.
MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E
WINDS FROM 13N TO 20N W OF 132W WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT BY
EARLY SAT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH BUILDING SEAS
OF 8-12 FT IN NW SWELL NW OF A LINE FROM 30N123W TO 20N135W BY
SAT MORNING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB IS CENTERED SE OF THE FRONT NEAR
28N130W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 22N115W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE W WATERS GENERALLY FROM 12N TO 20N
W OF 120W.

LOOKING AHEAD...A GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
EARLY SUN AS THE GULF OF MEXICO STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE
FORECASTED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302154
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU OCT 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
VANCE AT 30/2100 UTC. THIS IS THE 20TH NAMED STORM OF THE
TROPICAL SEASON. AT THIS TIME...IT IS CENTERED NEAR 11.0N 101.0W
OR ABOUT 360 NM...665 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MOVING W OR 260
DEGREES AT 4 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST
LATER TODAY...WITH A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
VANCE SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST ON SATURDAY. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR VANCE REACHING HURRICANE STATUS ON SUN. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM NE
SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO IN A BAND FROM 09N TO 10N BETWEEN 101W
AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE
FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 96W AND 100W. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
STARTING AT 01/0000 UTC. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH FRI AND HELP TO INITIATE A NEW ROUND
OF NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE FRI EVENING. EXPECT
BUILDING SEAS OF 12-16 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BY EARLY SAT.
THIS GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE
SUN MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 10N98W THEN RESUMES W OF
T.S. VANCE FROM 10N105W TO 12N123W TO 10N132W. ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES FROM 10N132W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 03N E OF 82W...INCLUDING THE
GULF OF PANAMA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN
82W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 119W AND 126W.

...DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA AND EXTENDS FROM
FROM 30N135W TO 27N140W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH A
POSITION FROM 30N125W TO 26N130W TO 23N140W BY FRI AFTERNOON
WHILE IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN W OF 130W. BY THAT TIME...MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL NW OF THE FRONT WITH A NEW SET OF NW
SWELL BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THEREAFTER...BY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...MODERATE
TO STRONG HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS.
MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E
WINDS FROM 13N TO 20N W OF 132W WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT BY
EARLY SAT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH BUILDING SEAS
OF 8-12 FT IN NW SWELL NW OF A LINE FROM 30N123W TO 20N135W BY
SAT MORNING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB IS CENTERED SE OF THE FRONT NEAR
28N130W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 22N115W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE W WATERS GENERALLY FROM 12N TO 20N
W OF 120W.

LOOKING AHEAD...A GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
EARLY SUN AS THE GULF OF MEXICO STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE
FORECASTED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

$$
GR



000
WTPZ21 KNHC 302033
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
2100 UTC THU OCT 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 101.0W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 101.0W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 100.8W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 10.6N 101.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 10.1N 102.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z  9.9N 104.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 10.1N 105.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.0N 109.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 16.0N 110.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 20.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 101.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





000
WTPZ31 KNHC 302033
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
200 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

...VANCE IS THE 20TH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 101.0W
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST. VANCE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY... WITH A SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  VANCE SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST
ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 302033
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
200 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

...VANCE IS THE 20TH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 101.0W
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST. VANCE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY... WITH A SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  VANCE SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST
ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301815
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT JUEVES 30 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL AREA DE BAJA PRESION JUSTO AL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES SE HA
TORNADO MENOS ORGANIZADA. SE ESPERA QUE LOS VIENTOS DE LA ATMOSFERA
SUPERIOR PERMANEZCAN DESFAVORABLES PARA QUE SE DESARROLLE EN UN
CICLON TROPICAL MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA GIRA HACIA EL NOROESTE Y NORTE
DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...0 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...0 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE





000
ABNT20 KNHC 301750
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The area of low pressure just north of the Virgin Islands has
become less organized.  Upper-level winds are expected to remain
unfavorable for tropical cyclone development while the system turns
toward the northwest and north over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABNT20 KNHC 301750
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The area of low pressure just north of the Virgin Islands has
become less organized.  Upper-level winds are expected to remain
unfavorable for tropical cyclone development while the system turns
toward the northwest and north over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ACPN50 PHFO 301747
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST THU OCT 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

$$






000
ACPN50 PHFO 301747
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST THU OCT 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

$$






000
AXNT20 KNHC 301733
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N72W TO 12N73W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES AROUND THIS WAVE BUT ALSO AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR WHICH IS LIMITING
CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W AND CONTINUES TO 08N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS
NEAR 08N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 11N28W TO 10N40W TO 09N47W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-12N BETWEEN 13W-21W
AND ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN US IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN FROM
27N97W TO 29N83W. ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THE GULF IS
EXPERIENCING CONVECTION RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS
MOMENT...WHICH IS ALONG 28N BETWEEN 84W-86W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING...WITH AXIS
FROM 28N85W TO 24N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
80 NM FROM EITHER SIDE OF THIS AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
GENERATING CONVECTION...THIS TIME IT IS ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THIS AXIS IS LOCATED FROM 23N94W TO 18N94W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 91W-95W. WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FROM THE N-NE AT 10-15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE AND WITH
HIGHER SPEEDS NEAR CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH
TONIGHT AND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HANNA...WHICH CONTINUES
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WEAKENING RAPIDLY. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION
W OF 80W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO PRESENT N OF COSTA RICA
AND PANAMA...WHICH ALONG WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE...IS ENHANCING CONVECTION S OF 13N. E-NE FLOW AT 10-15
KT AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE S OF HISPANIOLA (FOR
MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE). THIS IS DUE
TO A MODERATE DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A 1009 MB LOW
CURRENTLY LOCATED AT AROUND 120 NM NE OF FAJARDO...PUERTO
RICO...IS BRINGING ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENHANCING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENT GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A SURFACE LOW
APPROACHES THE NORTHERN WATERS OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHORT-WAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 29N71W TO 23N73W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-34N BETWEEN 66W-73W. TO THE E...A 1009 MB
SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED AT AROUND 120 NM NE OF FAJARDO...PUERTO
RICO...WITH CENTER NEAR 20N64W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THIS LOW TO 24N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS E OF
THESE FEATURES FROM 17N-30N BETWEEN 64W-56W. AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE E ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS FROM 27N58W TO 32N28W INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ONLY PRESENT ALONG THE WEAKENING
STATIONARY FRONT PORTION WHICH IS LOCATED FROM 28N58W TO 25N47W.
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 301733
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N72W TO 12N73W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES AROUND THIS WAVE BUT ALSO AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR WHICH IS LIMITING
CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W AND CONTINUES TO 08N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS
NEAR 08N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 11N28W TO 10N40W TO 09N47W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-12N BETWEEN 13W-21W
AND ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN US IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN FROM
27N97W TO 29N83W. ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THE GULF IS
EXPERIENCING CONVECTION RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS
MOMENT...WHICH IS ALONG 28N BETWEEN 84W-86W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING...WITH AXIS
FROM 28N85W TO 24N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
80 NM FROM EITHER SIDE OF THIS AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
GENERATING CONVECTION...THIS TIME IT IS ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THIS AXIS IS LOCATED FROM 23N94W TO 18N94W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 91W-95W. WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FROM THE N-NE AT 10-15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE AND WITH
HIGHER SPEEDS NEAR CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH
TONIGHT AND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HANNA...WHICH CONTINUES
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WEAKENING RAPIDLY. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION
W OF 80W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO PRESENT N OF COSTA RICA
AND PANAMA...WHICH ALONG WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE...IS ENHANCING CONVECTION S OF 13N. E-NE FLOW AT 10-15
KT AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE S OF HISPANIOLA (FOR
MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE). THIS IS DUE
TO A MODERATE DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A 1009 MB LOW
CURRENTLY LOCATED AT AROUND 120 NM NE OF FAJARDO...PUERTO
RICO...IS BRINGING ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENHANCING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENT GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A SURFACE LOW
APPROACHES THE NORTHERN WATERS OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHORT-WAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 29N71W TO 23N73W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-34N BETWEEN 66W-73W. TO THE E...A 1009 MB
SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED AT AROUND 120 NM NE OF FAJARDO...PUERTO
RICO...WITH CENTER NEAR 20N64W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THIS LOW TO 24N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS E OF
THESE FEATURES FROM 17N-30N BETWEEN 64W-56W. AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE E ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS FROM 27N58W TO 32N28W INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ONLY PRESENT ALONG THE WEAKENING
STATIONARY FRONT PORTION WHICH IS LOCATED FROM 28N58W TO 25N47W.
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301710
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Twenty-One-E, located several hundred miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301456
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU OCT 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E IS CENTERED NEAR 11.5N 100.9W
AT 30/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 330 NM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MOVING W AT
5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
98W-102W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
STARTING AT 01/0000 UTC. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH FRI AND HELP TO INITIATE A NEW ROUND
OF NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE FRI EVENING. EXPECT
BUILDING SEAS OF 12-15 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BY EARLY SAT.
THIS GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE
SUN MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N83W 8N88W TO 10N97W THEN RESUMES W
OF T.D. TWENTY-ONE-E NEAR 11N104W ALONG 13N117W 12N129W TO
9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-9N BETWEEN 90W-92W AND FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 119W-130W.

...DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW WATERS THROUGH 32N134W TO
28N140W AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY REACHING
FROM 32N127W TO 26N134W DISSIPATING TO 24N140W BY FRI MORNING
AND FROM 30N118W TO 25N125W BY SAT MORNING. EARLY FRI MORNING
FRESH WINDS AND NW SWELL WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 FT AND TO 10 FT BY
1200 UTC. BY SAT 8 TO 11 FT SEAS WILL SWEEP FROM W TO E ACROSS
THE N WATERS BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB IS CENTERED SE OF THE FRONT NEAR
28N131W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 23N114W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SW WATERS GENERALLY FROM 12N TO 20N W OF
115W. AS THE FRONT MOVES SW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
INCREASING TRADE WINDS TO STRONG BY EARLY SAT MORNING WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 9 FT. THESE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

LOOKING AHEAD...A GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
EARLY SUN AS THE GULF OF MEXICO STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE
FORECASTED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

$$
PAW



000
WTPZ21 KNHC 301446
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
1500 UTC THU OCT 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 100.9W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 100.9W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 100.7W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 11.4N 101.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 10.7N 102.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 10.4N 103.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 10.4N 105.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.9N 108.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 15.5N 110.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 108.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 100.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 301446
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
1500 UTC THU OCT 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 100.9W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 100.9W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 100.7W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 11.4N 101.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 10.7N 102.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 10.4N 103.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 10.4N 105.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.9N 108.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 15.5N 110.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 108.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 100.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





000
WTPZ31 KNHC 301446
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
800 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 100.9W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-ONE-E WAS RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE
100.9 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9
KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY...
WITH A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE DEPRESSION
SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



000
ACPN50 PHFO 301155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST THU OCT 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

$$

KINEL





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301141
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT JUEVES 30 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA DE BAJA PRESION MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL OESTE...LOCALIZADO JUSTO
AL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES...ESTA PRODUCIENDO AGUACEROS Y
TRONADAS DESORGANIZADAS MAYORMENTE AL NORESTE Y NORTE DEL CENTRO. SE
ESPERA QUE LOS VIENTOS EN LA ALTA ATMOSFERA SE TORNEN
DESFAVORABLES PARA EL DESARROLLO DE CICLON TROPICAL MIENTRAS EL
SISTEMA GIRA HACIA EL NOROESTE Y NORTE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN





000
ABNT20 KNHC 301129
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A westward-moving area of low pressure, located just north of the
Virgin Islands, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
mainly to the northeast and north of the center. Upper-level winds
are expected to remain unfavorable for tropical cyclone development
while the system turns toward the northwest and north over the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301123
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E, located several hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
AXNT20 KNHC 301024
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N71W TO 11N72W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS
BEING SUPPORTED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH AT 700 MB AND CONTINUES
EMBEDDED IN A SHALLOW MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN ALONG WITH
STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION AT THE TIME.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES TO 8N25W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR
8N25W AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N38W TO 9N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FROM 5N-11N E OF 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WEST OF THE ITCZ ALONG
13N48W TO 6N51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT BEING SUPPORTED BY A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
FROM FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W TO 28N90W TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING IS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
BASIN...WHICH IS PROVIDING WITH N-NE WIND FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 5-
10 KT. A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF ALONG
28N85W TO 24N85W WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS BEING ALONG THE TROUGH
AXIS. ANOTHER WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS BEING ANALYZED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 23N93W TO 18N93W.
SHALLOW MOISTURE ADVECTED TO THE SW GULF FROM THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE HANNA SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 160 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT AND
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE
HANNA LINGERS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...WHICH ALONG A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONTINUE TO
FUEL SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 20N W
OF 81W. IN THE SW BASIN...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
12N BEING ENHANCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT CROSSES CENTRAL
PANAMA TO NW COLOMBIA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BEING SUPPORTED BY AN INVERTED LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH...HOWEVER STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT IN THIS
REGION OF THE BASIN ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL
WIND SHEAR HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. SEE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IS ADVECTING MOISTURE
TO PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA THAT IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AT THE TIME. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TOWARDS WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT W-NW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN
IT IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION INTO A SURFACE TROUGH WITH
THE SOUTHERN END BRUSHING NORTHERN HISPANIOLA.

HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NE OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND BY NE
WIND FLOW. THIS IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND
AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT WATERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH JUST N OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHORT-WAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC SUPPORT A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 28N71W TO 23N73W THAT IS ENHANCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 69W-73W. NE OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED AS A 1009 MB LOW NEAR
19N64W CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 60W-63W AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 57W-63W. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N34W SW TO 25N48W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N54W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WEST OF THE TAIL OF THE FRONT FROM 24N-28N
BETWEEN 57W-63W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300856
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU OCT 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E IS CENTERED NEAR 11.1N 100.2W
AT 30/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 355 NM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MOVING W AT
5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF
CENTER IN THE N QUADRANT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
STARTING AT 01/0000 UTC. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY AND HELP TO INITIATE A NEW
ROUND OF NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE FRI EVENING.
EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 12-15 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BY
EARLY SAT. THIS GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUN MORNING. THE GFS GLOBAL MODEL AND THE NAM REGIONAL
MODEL ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N85W TO 09N89W TO
1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N100W TO 08N107W TO 13N117W TO 10N134W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N134W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 09N E OF 84W...FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN
86W AND 89W...AND FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 124W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB IS CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS NEAR 28N131W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE TO NEAR 20N112W.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXES IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS
GENERALLY FROM 12N TO 23N W OF 115W. RECENT ASCAT SATELLITE DATA
CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT IS JUST NW OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NW WATERS THURSDAY REACHING A POSITION FROM
30N132W TO 26N140W BY THURSDAY EVENING...AND FROM 30N128W TO
24N140W BY FRIDAY MORNING. BY THAT TIME...FRESH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL NW OF THE FRONT WITH A NEW WAVE OF NW SWELL BEGINNING TO
ENTER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA. THEREAFTER...BY LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH
BUILDING SEAS OF 8-11 FT NW OF A LINE FROM 30N128W TO 19N140W.

LOOKING AHEAD...A GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. NE TO E WINDS ARE FORECAST IN
THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

$$
HUFFMAN



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 300841
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
200 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 100.2W
ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.2
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H.
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY...AND THIS
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 300841
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
200 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 100.2W
ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.2
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H.
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY...AND THIS
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 300840
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
0900 UTC THU OCT 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 100.2W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 100.2W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 100.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 11.1N 100.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 10.8N 101.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 10.3N 102.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 10.1N 104.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 10.9N 107.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 14.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 18.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 100.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 300840
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
0900 UTC THU OCT 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 100.2W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 100.2W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 100.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 11.1N 100.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 10.8N 101.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 10.3N 102.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 10.1N 104.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 10.9N 107.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 14.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 18.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 100.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 300840
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
0900 UTC THU OCT 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 100.2W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 100.2W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 100.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 11.1N 100.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 10.8N 101.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 10.3N 102.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 10.1N 104.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 10.9N 107.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 14.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 18.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 100.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 300840
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
0900 UTC THU OCT 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 100.2W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 100.2W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 100.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 11.1N 100.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 10.8N 101.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 10.3N 102.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 10.1N 104.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 10.9N 107.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 14.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 18.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 100.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 300705
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA ESPECIAL SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT JUEVES 30 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA DE BAJA PRESION MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL OESTE...LOCALIZADA JUSTO
AL NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES...ESTA PRODUCIENDO AGUACEROS Y
TRONADAS DESORGANIZADAS MAYORMENTE AL NORESTE Y NORTE DE LAS ISLAS
DE SOTAVENTO. SE PRONOSTICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS EN LA ALTA ATMOSFERA SE
TORNEN DESFAVORABLES PARA UN DESARROLLO DE CICLON TROPICAL MIENTRAS
EL SISTEMA GIRA HACIA EL NOROESTE Y NORTE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...20 POR
  CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR
  CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN





000
AXNT20 KNHC 300602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 17N70W TO 11N71W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS
BEING SUPPORTED BY A LOW- TO MIDDLE-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH AND
CONTINUES EMBEDDED IN A SHALLOW MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN ALONG WITH
STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION AT THE TIME.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES TO 7N23W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR
7N23W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N34W TO 5N44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FROM 4N-10N E OF 32W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-
17N BETWEEN 33W-39W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WEST OF THE ITCZ ALONG
12N48W TO 4N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 47W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE CONUS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO NEW ORLEANS TO HOUSTON TEXAS...WHICH
IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE
FRONT. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE BASIN...WHICH IS PROVIDING WITH N-NE WIND FLOW IN THE RANGE
OF 5-10 KT. A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF
ALONG 29N86W TO 24N86W WITH NO SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT DUE TO
STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. ANOTHER WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS BEING ANALYZED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 24N92W TO 17N95W.
SHALLOW MOISTURE ADVECTED TO THE SW GULF FROM THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE HANNA SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THU NIGHT AND
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE
HANNA LINGERS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...WHICH ALONG A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONTINUE TO
FUEL SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 20N W
OF 81W. IN THE SW BASIN...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
11N BEING ENHANCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT CROSSES PANAMA TO
NW COLOMBIA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN
BEING SUPPORTED BY AN INVERTED LOW- TO MIDDLE-LEVEL
TROUGH...HOWEVER STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT IN THIS
REGION OF THE BASIN ALONG WITH STRONG WIND SHEAR HINDER THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE
FOR MORE DETAILS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NE OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS IS ADVECTING MOISTURE TO PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA THAT IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AT THE TIME. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATE THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DRIFT W-NW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO
TRANSITION TO A SURFACE TROUGH BRUSHING NORTHERN HISPANIOLA.

HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NE OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND BY NE
WIND FLOW. THIS IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND
AND ADJACENT WATERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKEN INTO A
TROUGH JUST N OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHORT-WAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC SUPPORT A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 25N70W TO 21N72W THAT IS ENHANCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 68W-72W. NE OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED AS A 1009 MB LOW NEAR
19N63W CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 59W-63W. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N37W SW TO 26N51W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 26N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE NEAR THE TAIL OF THE FRONT FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 55W-64W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
ACPN50 PHFO 300555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST WED OCT 29 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

$$

KINEL





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 300535
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, continue
to show signs of organization.  Recent satellite images suggest that
the circulation may be becoming better defined.  If this trend
continues, then the low would likely become a tropical depression
overnight or Thursday while it moves generally westward at
about 5 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABNT20 KNHC 300533
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A westward-moving area of low pressure, located just to the
northeast of the Virgin Islands, is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms mainly to the northeast and north of the Leeward
Islands.  Upper-level winds are forecast to become increasingly
unfavorable for tropical cyclone development while the system turns
toward the northwest and north over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300236
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU OCT 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N100W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
AROUND 120 NM NE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 96W-100W. THE SYSTEM STILL
LACKS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND THE DEEP CONVECTION
HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. LATEST SCATTEROMETER
PASSES CAPTURED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN 120 NM N
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE LATEST NHC
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO GIVE THIS LOW PRES A HIGH
CHANGE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
STARTING AT 01/0000 UTC. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO INITIATE A
NEW ROUND OF NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE FRI EVENING.
EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 14-15 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BY
EARLY SAT. THIS GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUN MORNING. THE GFS GLOBAL MODEL AND THE NAM REGIONAL
MODEL ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE GEFS
PROBABILITIES REACH 40-50 PERCENT AT 01/0600 UTC. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE SECOND GALE-FORCE EVENT OF THE COLD SEASON 2014-
2015.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO A 1007 MB LOW PRES
LOCATED NEAR 11N100W TO 08N105W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N105W
TO 12N120W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 120W AND 128W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 12N W OF 128W.

...DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1021 MB CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N131W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS TO NEAR 20N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS FROM 10N
TO 20N W OF 120W. SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF
THESE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT IS JUST NW OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NW WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT REACHING A POSITION
FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W BY THU EVENING...AND FROM 30N128W TO
23N140W BY FRI MORNING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL
PREVAIL NW OF THE FRONT ON THU. A NEW SET OF NW SWELL WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 10-11 FT NW OF A LINE
FROM 30N130W TO 23N140W LATE ON FRI.

LOOKING AHEAD...A GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
LATE SAT INTO SUN AS A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
REACH A POSITION FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA SUN
NIGHT WITH FRESH NE WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
IN ITS WAKE.

$$
GR



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 300040
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA ESPECIAL SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT MIERCOLES 29 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA DE BAJA PRESION MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL OESTE...LOCALIZADA JUSTO
AL NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES...ESTA PRODUCIENDO AGUACEROS Y
TRONADAS DESORGANIZADAS MAYORMENTE AL NORESTE Y NORTE DE LAS ISLAS
DE SOTAVENTO. SE PRONOSTICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS EN LA ALTA ATMOSFERA SE
TORNEN DESFAVORABLES PARA UN DESARROLLO DE CICLON TROPICAL MIENTRAS
EL SISTEMA GIRA HACIA EL NOROESTE Y NORTE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...20 POR
  CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...30 POR
  CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH





000
AXNT20 KNHC 300005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N69W 11N70W. THE WAVE
IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE IN SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW FROM
14N TO 16N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
GUINEA AND GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 8N20W AND 7N27W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N27W TO 8N43W 10N49W AND 9N57W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO
9N BETWEEN 23W AND 26W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO
11N BETWEEN 17W AND 27W.

ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 5N TO 12N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NEARBY ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 11N
BETWEEN 37W AND 53W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 49W FROM
5N TO 12N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A
30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 9.5N 47W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO IS PRESENT...FROM THE 15N40W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A....INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO
THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT CUTS THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...INTO
AND BEYOND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N84W TO 31N86W 30N92W 29N95W 29N96W 28N100W...
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS.

A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 29N86W AND
26N86W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
25N TO 30N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG 23N93W 18N94W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 25N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 92W AND THE MEXICO GULF COAST.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KXIH
AND AT KVBS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS JUST OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NEAR 19.5N 62W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE 1010 MB LOW CENTER...ACROSS SAINT KITTS AND
NEVIS...TO 15N64W IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 18N
TO 21N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE IN THE AREA FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 63W AND 67W...INCLUDING
MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER FROM 18N TO 31N BETWEEN 52W AND 65W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE FROM 18N TO 27N BETWEEN 52W AND 64W.

THE REMNANT 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF HANNA IS IN NORTHERN
GUATEMALA NEAR 16.5N 90W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE IN THIS AREA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 16N TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF GUATEMALA...COMPARATIVELY
MORE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
THIS AREA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N NORTHWARD FROM 80W
WESTWARD. THE COMPARATIVELY GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 82W AND THE
COASTS OF MEXICO AND BELIZE...AND FROM NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
INTO EASTERN GUATEMALA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 20N66W 15N67W
13N68W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN 63W AND 77W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED ALSO WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS
PART OF THE DETAILED INFORMATION IN THE SECTION FOR THE 1010 MB
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
29/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 2.90 IN
GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N75W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 8N81W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG FROM 13N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 77W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 25N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA...CUBA...
AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ACROSS THE ISLAND...AT THE
SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF CUBA...AND IN SOUTHEASTERN JAMAICA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER LOW LEVEL CLOUDS C
ARE BEING REPORTED IN BARAHONA. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...AND A SEPARATE LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE
BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA
ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A TROUGH JUST TO THE EAST. A
RIDGE EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE 48-
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START IN THE AREA THAT IS
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL START FOR 6 TO 12 HOURS...BEING REPLACED BY WESTERLY WIND
FLOW FOR 18 TO 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N70W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER FROM
20N TO 30N BETWEEN 65W AND 74W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N70W
21N72W IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM
24N TO 28N BETWEEN 62W AND 72W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO
29N41W AND 27N44W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N36W TO 28N43W AND 26N51W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 26N51W TO 26N63W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N35W TO 28N40W 27N50W 27N63W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 15N40W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N TO 24N BETWEEN 30W AND 52W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW.

A WEAKENING 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 24N21W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N25W...TO A 1015 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N33W...TO 20N46W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
ACPN50 PHFO 292340
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST WED OCT 29 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


$$

EVANS






000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292338
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Recent satellite images suggest that the low pressure area located
several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, may be developing a
better defined center of circulation.  If this trend continues,
then the low would likely become a tropical depression tonight or on
Thursday while it moves generally westward at about 5 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
ABNT20 KNHC 292336
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A westward-moving area of low pressure, located just to the
northeast of the Virgin Islands, is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms mainly to the northeast and north of the Leeward
Islands.  Upper-level winds are forecast to become increasingly
unfavorable for tropical cyclone development while the system turns
toward the northwest and north over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292128
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED OCT 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N99W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM E
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO NOTED FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 98W AND 104W. THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, IT STILL LACKS
A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION. THE CENTER IS EXPOUSED AND
WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER
PASSES CAPTURED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN 120 NM N
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE LATEST NHC
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES A HIGH CHANGE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N90W TO 1007 MB LOW
PRES NEAR 11N99W TO 07N105W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N105W TO
12N123W TO 10N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 120W AND 123W.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 11N W
OF 132W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS SUPPORTING THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.

...DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1022 MB CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N131W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS TO NEAR 20N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS FROM 10N
TO 20N W OF 125W. SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF
THESE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT IS JUST NW OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY THU. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
WILL PREVAIL NW OF THE FRONT ON THU. A NEW SET OF NW SWELL WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO NEAR 11 FT BY FRI MORNING.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP INITIATE A NEW
ROUND OF NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE BY EARLY THU.
WINDS MAY ALSO INCREASE FURTHER AND REACH GALE FORCE LATE
FRI/EARLY SAT. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 14-15 FT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS BY EARLY SAT.

LOOKING AHEAD...A GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
LATE SAT INTO SUN AS A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
REACH A POSITION FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA SUN
NIGHT WITH FRESH NE WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IN ITS
WAKE.

$$
GR



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 291805
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA ESPECIAL SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT MIERCOLES 29 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA DE BAJA PRESION SE HA FORMADO JUSTO AL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS DE
SOTAVENTO Y ESTA PRODUCIENDO AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS DESORGANIZADAS.
AUNQUE  LOS VIENTOS EN LA ALTA ATMOSFERA NO ESTAN ACTUALMENTE
PARTICULARMENTE CONDUCENTES...ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL ES POSIBLE
DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVA HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE
A NOROESTE DE 10 A 15 MPH. LUEGO... LAS CONDICIONES SE PRONOSTICAN
TORNARSE DESFAVORABLES PARA UN DESARROLLO DE CICLON TROPICAL.

* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...30 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR
  CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE/BROWN





000
AXNT20 KNHC 291804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1615 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OF 1010 MB IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 20N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N60W IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE LOW TO NEAR 15N64 IN THE E CARIBBEAN. AN
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THIS LOW OVER PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
LOW. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WITH A VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 56W AND 62W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE
SW OF THE LOW...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT VERY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10
KT. TROPICAL   CYCLONE FORMATION CHANCES THROUGH 48 HOURS REMAIN
MEDIUM. SEE   LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS   MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 17N67W TO 11N69W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE
IS EMBEDDED IN A SHALLOW MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN LIMITS THE
CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES TO 8N20W TO 7N26W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS NEAR 7N26W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N41W TO 7N58W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO 10N
BETWEEN 15W AND 25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N OF THE ITCZ FROM 12N32W TO 8N35W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 39W AND
54W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION FROM 12N46W TO 5N47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND NW GULF IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT NEARING THE NW GULF COAST ACROSS TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA. DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...THERE
IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AT THIS TIME. A
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W TO
26N86W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 50 NM OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. MOIST AIR FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE HANNA IS
STREAMING INTO THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS MOISTURE
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
19N TO 22N BETWEEN 92W AND 94W. DRY AIR SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. WEAK STEERING FLOW IS
PRODUCING SE TO NE WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KT ACROSS THE
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
NORTHERN BASIN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SE ACROSS FL AND THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HANNA
WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW GULF AND BAY OF
CAMPECHE THROUGH THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE REMNANTS OF HANNA ARE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH
PART OF THE CIRCULATION ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS
FROM 22N87W TO 15N89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N
TO 21N BETWEEN 81W AND 88W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N BETWEEN 76W AND 81W. THIS
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL BASIN HAS FAIR WEATHER DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS AND SUBSIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH WITH
CONVECTION IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH LITTLE TO NO
CONVECTION. REMNANTS OF HANNA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE NW AND AFFECT THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE COAST OF HAITI IS
PRODUCING CONVERGENT FLOW ACROSS THE NE PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND.
THIS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS HAITI THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES W TO NW JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGH IS
ACROSS AND NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT FROM 31N42W TO 27N52W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 27N60W TO 25N71W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF WITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N69W TO THE N COAST OF
HAITI NEAR 20N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM W OF THIS
TROUGH. A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 28N34W.
THIS HIGH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLANTIC E OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE AND COLD FRONT. A
WEAKENING SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 26N20W WITH NO NOTABLE CONVECTION.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WHILE
THE SPECIAL FEATURE MOVES W TO NW WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
ABNT20 KNHC 291803
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

Corrected second sentence

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure has formed just north of the Leeward
Islands and is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Although upper-level winds are not particularly
conducive, some development of this disturbance is possible during
the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  After that time, conditions are
forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation
while the system turns northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Brown



000
ABNT20 KNHC 291758
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure has formed just north of the Leeward
Islands and is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Although upper-level winds are particularly
conducive, some development of this disturbance is possible during
the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  After that time, conditions are
forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation
while the system turns northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Brown



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291752
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure
located several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, is
becoming better defined, and a tropical depression could be
forming. Environmental conditions are conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form by
tonight while the low moves west-northwestward at about 5 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ACPN50 PHFO 291740
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST WED OCT 29 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.


$$

EVANS







000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291512
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED OCT 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N98W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM SE QUADRANT. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM NE
QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS
NOTED FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 97W AND 102W. THE LATEST NHC
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES A HIGH CHANGE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR
11N98W TO 08N104W TO 09N109W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A
TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 12N120W TO 09N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN
90 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE ITCZ
W OF 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1022 MB CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N131W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS TO NEAR 18N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS FROM 10N
TO 20N W OF 120W.

A COLD FRONT IS JUST NW OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY THU. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
WILL PREVAIL NW OF THE FRONT ON THU. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A
SET OF NW SWELLS TO THE AREA...REACHING NEAR 9 FT BY EARLY FRI.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP INITIATE A NEW
ROUND OF NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE BY EARLY THU.
WINDS MAY ALSO INCREASE FURTHER AND REACH GALE FORCE LATE
FRI/EARLY SAT.

$$
AL



000
ACPN50 PHFO 291145
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST WED OCT 29 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

LAU








000
ACCA62 TJSJ 291136
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA ESPECIAL SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT MIERCOLES 29 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UNA VAGUADA DE BAJA PRESION EXTIENDE DESDE CERCA DEL NORTE DE LAS
ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO AL NORESTE SOBRE EL OCEANO ATLANTICO POR VARIOS
CIENTOS DE MILLAS Y ESTA PRODUCIENDO AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS
DESORGANIZADAS. LOS VIENTOS EN LA ALTA ATMOSFERA ESTAN ACTUALMENTE
MARGINALMENTE CONDUCENTES...Y ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL ES POSIBLE
MIENTRAS SE MUEVA HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A NOROESTE DE 10 A 15 MPH.
LUEGO... LAS CONDICIONES SE PRONOSTICAN TORNARSE DESFAVORABLES PARA
UN DESARROLLO DE CICLON TROPICAL.

* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...30 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR
  CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN





000
ABNT20 KNHC 291129
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure extending from near the northern Leeward
Islands northeastward over the Atlantic for a few hundred miles is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Upper-level winds are currently marginally conducive, and some
development of this disturbance is possible during the next day or
so while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.  After that time, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable
for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291128
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the area of low pressure
located several hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco,
Mexico, continue to show signs of organization.  However, the
system still lacks a well-defined surface circulation.
Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is expected to form by tonight while
the low moves west-northwestward at about 5 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
AXNT20 KNHC 291038
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1010 MB LOW BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NE OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N61W. THE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN A HIGH
DEEP LAYER MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION E
OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 58W-61W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 54W-61W.
DUE TO MARGINAL CONDUCIVE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE WHILE IT MOVES W-NW
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION CHANCES
THROUGH 48 HOURS REMAIN MEDIUM. SEE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 17N64W TO 10N67W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE
IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH AND
IT IS EMBEDDED IN A SHALLOW MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN LIMITS THE
CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 140 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N16W AND CONTINUES TO 9N21W 8N27W. THE ITCZ BEGINS
NEAR 8N27W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N35W TO 7N42W...THEN RESUMES
WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 7N47W TO 8N56W. NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N E OF 24W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
ANALYZED FROM 12N31W TO 7N34W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
12N44W TO 4N46W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 40W-44W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE WEST ATLC...THUS
SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS AN AXIS SW ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE NE GULF. HOWEVER...IN THE MIDDLE-
LEVELS...THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
EXTENDS S TO THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GULF TO SUPPORT A WEAKNESS IN
THE SURFACE RIDGE ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N87W TO
25N87W. SHALLOW MOIST AIR FROM THE ATLC FRONT ENVIRONMENT AND
FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE HANNA ON THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS BEEN
STREAMING INTO THE GULF...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS NEARBY THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
FROM ALOFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN SUSTAINS FAIR WEATHER.
WINDS FROM THE E-SE IN THE RANGE OF 5-15 KT DOMINATE. A COLD
FRONT WILL REACH THE NE BASIN AND NORTHERN FLORIDA BY WED
NIGHT...CONTINUING E-SE ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THU
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE REMNANTS OF HANNA ARE BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 21N85W TO 13N89W...WHICH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE YUCATAN
BASIN...BELIZE...NORTHERN HONDURAS AND NE NICARAGUA. LINGERING
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
HISPANIOLA CONTINUE TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND
AS WELL AS IMMEDIATE ADJACENT WATERS. THE SHOWERS ARE BEING
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN BASIN. THIS WAVE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN INVERTED LOW-
TO MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH...HOWEVER STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM
ALOFT IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN IS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DEEP CONVECTION. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARDS HISPANIOLA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO WED THROUGH THU AND FOR HISPANIOLA
THU TO SAT.

HISPANIOLA...

LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS HISPANIOLA CONTINUE TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
ISLAND AS WELL AS ADJACENT WATERS. THE SHOWERS ARE BEING
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NE OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARDS HISPANIOLA
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA THU TO SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE BASIN IS A DISTURBANCE JUST NE OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...WHICH IS DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N
OF 28N CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N43W SW
TO 27N52W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
27N63W TO 23N70W. A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS FROM 25N65W TO
19N69W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EAST AND WEST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 291038
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1010 MB LOW BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NE OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N61W. THE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN A HIGH
DEEP LAYER MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION E
OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 58W-61W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 54W-61W.
DUE TO MARGINAL CONDUCIVE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE WHILE IT MOVES W-NW
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION CHANCES
THROUGH 48 HOURS REMAIN MEDIUM. SEE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 17N64W TO 10N67W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE
IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH AND
IT IS EMBEDDED IN A SHALLOW MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN LIMITS THE
CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 140 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N16W AND CONTINUES TO 9N21W 8N27W. THE ITCZ BEGINS
NEAR 8N27W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N35W TO 7N42W...THEN RESUMES
WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 7N47W TO 8N56W. NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N E OF 24W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
ANALYZED FROM 12N31W TO 7N34W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
12N44W TO 4N46W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 40W-44W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE WEST ATLC...THUS
SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS AN AXIS SW ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE NE GULF. HOWEVER...IN THE MIDDLE-
LEVELS...THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
EXTENDS S TO THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GULF TO SUPPORT A WEAKNESS IN
THE SURFACE RIDGE ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N87W TO
25N87W. SHALLOW MOIST AIR FROM THE ATLC FRONT ENVIRONMENT AND
FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE HANNA ON THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS BEEN
STREAMING INTO THE GULF...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS NEARBY THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
FROM ALOFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN SUSTAINS FAIR WEATHER.
WINDS FROM THE E-SE IN THE RANGE OF 5-15 KT DOMINATE. A COLD
FRONT WILL REACH THE NE BASIN AND NORTHERN FLORIDA BY WED
NIGHT...CONTINUING E-SE ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THU
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE REMNANTS OF HANNA ARE BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 21N85W TO 13N89W...WHICH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE YUCATAN
BASIN...BELIZE...NORTHERN HONDURAS AND NE NICARAGUA. LINGERING
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
HISPANIOLA CONTINUE TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND
AS WELL AS IMMEDIATE ADJACENT WATERS. THE SHOWERS ARE BEING
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN BASIN. THIS WAVE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN INVERTED LOW-
TO MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH...HOWEVER STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM
ALOFT IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN IS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DEEP CONVECTION. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARDS HISPANIOLA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO WED THROUGH THU AND FOR HISPANIOLA
THU TO SAT.

HISPANIOLA...

LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS HISPANIOLA CONTINUE TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
ISLAND AS WELL AS ADJACENT WATERS. THE SHOWERS ARE BEING
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NE OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARDS HISPANIOLA
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA THU TO SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE BASIN IS A DISTURBANCE JUST NE OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...WHICH IS DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N
OF 28N CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N43W SW
TO 27N52W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
27N63W TO 23N70W. A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS FROM 25N65W TO
19N69W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EAST AND WEST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290908
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED OCT 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N98W MOVING W-NW AT 5 KT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRES
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AND ARE PRIMARILY CONCENTRATED WITHIN 150
NM OF CENTER WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A RECENT ASCAT
SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED THE CIRCULATION WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KT OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT...AND
WITHIN 180 NM TO 210 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT ON THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
IS CENTERED NE OF THE SURFACE LOW NEAR 14N91W. THIS RIDGING IS
INDUCING WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL SHEAR.
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH MOST OF THE SPIN UP OCCURRING ONCE THE
CENTER CROSSES 100W ON THURSDAY OR THEREAFTER. THE LATEST NHC
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES A HIGH CHANGE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROP1CAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N86W TO 1007 MB
LOW PRES NEAR 11N98W TO 09N106W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N106W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N119W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 124W AND 137W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
NEAR 32N131W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TO NEAR
18N112W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS MAINLY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 123W. RECENT SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS.

LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA LATE WED INTO EARLY THURSDAY REACHING A
POSITION FROM 30N133W TO 26N140W BY THURSDAY EVENING. MODERATE
TO FRESH WITH LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT. EXPECT SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL BY EARLY
FRIDAY WHEN THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM 30N130W TO
25N140W.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE
PULSING ACROSS THIS GULF REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE ASSISTANCE
OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY AND INITIATE A NEW
ROUND OF NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY THURSDAY. GLOBAL MODELS CURRENTLY
ARE SIGNALING FOR EITHER NEAR GALE OR GALE CONDITIONS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SAT AND THEN ON SUN WITH
BUILDING SEAS TO 12-14 FT DURING THE PERIOD OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS. THE EVENT SHOULD FADE BY LATE MONDAY.

$$
HUFFMAN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 290648
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA ESPECIAL SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT MIERCOLES 29 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UNA ONDA TROPICAL INTERACTUANDO CON UNA VAGUADA EN LOS NIVELES
ALTOS ESTA PRODUCIENDO AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS DESORGANIZADAS A
VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL ESTE NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO.
LOS VIENTOS EN LA ALTA ATMOSFERA ESTAN ACTUALMENTE MARGINALMENTE
CONDUCENTES...Y ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL ES POSIBLE MIENTRAS SE
MUEVA HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE U NOROESTE DE 10 A 15 MPH. LUEGO...
LAS CONDICIONES SE PRONOSTICAN TORNARSE DESFAVORABLES PARA UN
DESARROLLO DE CICLON TROPICAL.

* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...30 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR
  CIENTO.

UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION...LOS REMANENTES DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
HANNA...SE MUEVEN TIERRA ADENTRO SOBRE BELIZE MIENTRAS PRODUCE
AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS DESORGANIZADAS. AHORA QUE EL AREA DE BAJA
PRESION SE MUEVE SOBRE TIERRA...RE-DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO ES POCO
PROBABLE.

* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...0 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...0 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN





000
AXNT20 KNHC 290604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1010 MB LOW...FORMERLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
THE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN A HIGH DEEP LAYER MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT
ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION E OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 16N-
23N BETWEEN 56W-61W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180
NM OF THE LOW. DUE TO MARGINAL CONDUCIVE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS...GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE
WHILE IT MOVES W-NW THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION CHANCES THROUGH 48 HOURS REMAIN MEDIUM. SEE LATEST NHC
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 17N63W TO 9N66W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE
IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH AND
IT IS EMBEDDED IN A SHALLOW MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN HINDERS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AT THE TIME.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 10N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR
10N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N36W TO 7N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 4N-12N E OF 35W AND FROM
4N-11N BETWEEN 40W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE WEST ATLC...THUS
SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS AN AXIS SW ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE NW GULF. HOWEVER...IN THE MIDDLE-
LEVELS...THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
EXTENDS S TO THE CENTRAL GULF TO SUPPORT A WEAKNESS IN THE
SURFACE RIDGE ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N88W TO
25N88W. SHALLOW MOIST AIR FROM THE ATLC FRONT ENVIRONMENT AND
FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE HANNA HAS BEEN STREAMING INTO THE
GULF...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS NEARBY THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
BAY OF CAMPECHE. STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT ACROSS THE
REMAINDER BASIN SUSTAINS FAIR WEATHER. WINDS ARE FROM THE E-SE
IN THE RANGE OF 5-15 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NE BASIN
AND NORTHERN FLORIDA BY WED NIGHT...CONTINUING E-SE ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THU NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE REMNANTS OF HANNA ARE BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 21N84W TO 15N87W...WHICH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE YUCATAN
BASIN...BELIZE AND NORTHERN HONDURAS. LINGERING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS HISPANIOLA
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE ISLAND AS
WELL AS ADJACENT WATERS. THE SHOWERS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN BASIN.
THIS WAVE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN INVERTED LOW- TO MIDDLE-LEVEL
TROUGH...HOWEVER STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT IN THIS
REGION OF THE BASIN IS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION.
SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARDS HISPANIOLA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO
RICO WED THROUGH THU AND FOR HISPANIOLA THU TO SAT.

HISPANIOLA...

LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS HISPANIOLA CONTINUE TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
IN THE ISLAND AS WELL AS ADJACENT WATERS. THE SHOWERS ARE BEING
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NE OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARDS HISPANIOLA
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA THU TO SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE BASIN IS A DISTURBANCE JUST NE OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...WHICH IS DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N
OF 28N CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N45W SW
TO 25N57W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO 22N66W. THERE IS
NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES AT THE TIME. EAST
AND WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR
WEATHER DOMINATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 290551
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the area of low pressure
located several hundred miles south-southwest of Puerto Angel,
Mexico, have increased during the past several hours.  However,
recent satellite wind data suggests the system does not have a
well-defined circulation.  Environmental conditions are conducive
for development, and a tropical depression could form later tonight
or on Wednesday while the low moves west-northwestward at about 5
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven




000
ACPN50 PHFO 290545
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST TUE OCT 28 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

$$

LAU







000
ABNT20 KNHC 290538
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms a couple of hundred miles
northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  Upper-level winds
are currently marginally conducive, and some slow development of
this disturbance is possible during the next couple of days while it
moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
Afterwards, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for
tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

A low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Storm Hanna, is
moving inland over Belize while it produces disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Now that the low is moving inland, significant
re-development is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290232
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED OCT 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N97.5W MOVING W-NW AT 5 KT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF LOW PRES
ARE NOT WELL ORGANIZED AND IT IS NOT CLEAR YET THAT THE LOW HAS
DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER COVERING THE AREA FROM 9N-12N
BETWEEN 94.5W AND 97W. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTENT. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE
LOW...INDUCING WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH MOST OF THE SPIN UP OCCURRING AFTER A DAY
OR TWO. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW
PRES A HIGH CHANGE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROP1CAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS AXIS FROM 09N84W TO 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR
11N97.5W TO 08N106W. ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 08N106W TO 1009 MB
LOW PRES NEAR 10.5N118W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 128W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
A MODERATE 1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA NEAR 32N132W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR
20N110W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES ALONG
THE ITCZ AXIS IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
MAINLY FROM 10N-20N W OF 128W. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA
CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA WED NIGHT REACHING A POSITION FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W BY
THU EVENING. MODERATE TO FRESH NLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.
EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 8-10 FT IN NW SWELL BY FRI MORNING WHEN
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM 30N128W TO 24N140W.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO AFFECT MOST OF THE WATERS W OF
110W WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT FROM 10N TO 17N W OF 118W...AND FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MODERATE TO FRESH NLY WINDS ARE PULSING
ACROSS THIS GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. A COLD FRONT
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEK
SHOULD KICK OFF A NEW AND VIGOROUS TEHUANTEPECER ON FRIDAY. THE
GLOBAL MODELS CURRENTLY ARE CALLING FOR EITHER NEAR GALE OR GALE
CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SAT
AND THEN ON SUN WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 13-14 FT DURING THE PERIOD
OF THE STRONGEST WINDS. THE EVENT SHOULD FADE BY LATE MONDAY.

$$
GR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 290004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
18N60W. THE LOW IS MOVING NW AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 56W-61W.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 18N63W TO
9N65W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE TO HIGH DEEP LAYER
MOIST ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 10N20W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
10N20W TO 7N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N
BETWEEN 22W-38W...AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 43W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S GEORGIA NEAR 31N84W. A COLD
FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING E. 10 KT SE TO S WINDS COVER
THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS SUPPORTING THE COLD
FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
DRAPE OVER THE N GULF STATES WITH CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF N
OF 28N. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
18N60W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALSO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE...THE 1011 MB REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HANNA
IS NEAR THE N COAST OF HONDURAS AT 17N87W MOVING W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...
HONDURAS...AND BELIZE FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 85W-89W. FURTHER E...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 77W-85W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA
...AND COSTA RICA DUE TO A MONSOON TROUGH. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE TROPICAL WAVE...AND THE REMNANT LOW OF HANNA TO MOVE W WITH
CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA DUE
TO THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD COLD FRONT. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N70W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 32N46W TO 26N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
26N60W TO 22N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT AND TROUGH. ANOTHER 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 29N40W. A SMALL 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED JUST W OF THE
CANARY ISLAND NEAR 30N20W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. 0F NOTE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N38W
ENHANCING CONVECTION SE OF THE CENTER ALONG THE ITCZ. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 282351
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA ESPECIAL SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT MARTES 28 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UNA ONDA TROPICAL INTERACTUANDO CON UNA VAGUADA EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS
ESTA PRODUCIENDO AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS DESORGANIZADAS A VARIOS
CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL ESTE NORESTE DEL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS DE
SOTAVENTO. DEBIDO A QUE SE ESPERA QUE LOS VIENTOS EN LA ALTA
ATMOSFERA ESTEN MARGINALMENTE CONDUCENTES...ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL
DE ESTE DISTURBIO ES POSIBLE MIENTRAS SE MUEVA HACIA EL OESTE
NOROESTE U NOROESTE DE 10 A 15 MPH DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. LUEGO
DE ESTE TIEMPO...LAS CONDICIONES SE PRONOSTICAN TORNARSE
DESFAVORABLES PARA UN DESARROLLO DE CICLON TROPICAL.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...30 POR
  CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR
  CIENTO.

UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION...LOS REMANENTES DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
HANNA...ESTA LOCALIZADO SOBRE EL OESTE DEL GOLFO DE HONDURAS Y ESTA
PRODUCIENDO AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS DESORGANIZADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA
BAJA PRESION SE MUEVA TIERRA ADENTRO SOBRE BELIZE PARA TEMPRANO EL
MIERCOLES...Y UN REDESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO NO ES PROBABLE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.

&&

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH





000
ACPN50 PHFO 282330
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST TUE OCT 28 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

FOSTER





000
ABNT20 KNHC 282324
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms a couple of hundred miles
east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  Since
upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive, some
gradual development of this disturbance is possible while it moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next
couple of days.  Afterwards, conditions are forecast to become
unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

A low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Storm Hanna, is
located over the western Gulf of Honduras and is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  The low is expected to move
inland over Belize by early Wednesday, and significant
redevelopment is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 282324
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the area of low pressure
located several hundred miles south-southwest of Puerto Angel,
Mexico, are not particularly well organized, and it is not yet clear
that the low has developed a well-defined center of circulation.
However, environmental conditions are conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is still expected to form
tonight or on Wednesday while the low moves west-northwestward at
about 5 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282142
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE OCT 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N96W AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A
BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
120 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
EMBEDDED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF HIGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW...INDUCING WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH MOST OF THE
SPIN UP OCCURRING AFTER A DAY OR TWO. RECENT SATELLITE DATA
INDICATE THE LOW DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND IS NOT
A TROPICAL CYCLONE YET. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
GIVES THIS LOW PRES A HIGH CHANGE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROP1CAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BE SLOWLY OFF TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...REMAINING OFFSHORE FOR THE SHORT-TERM.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR
11N96W TO 08N105W. ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 08N105W TO 1011 MB
LOW PRES NEAR 10N117W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 115W AND 119W...AND
FROM 06N TO 10N W OF 126W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED FROM
10N TO 12N BETWEEN 131W AND 134W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS
HELPING TO INDUCE ALL THE CONVECTION W OF 126W.

...DISCUSSION...
A MODERATE 1022 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA NEAR 32N131W EXTENDING A RIDGE ACROSS THE N WATERS
TO NEAR 18N110W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED PER
SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
MAINLY W OF 130W.

A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...AND WILL REACH A POSITION FROM
30N132W TO 26N140W BY THU EVENING. MODERATE TO FRESH NLY WINDS
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN NW
SWELL BY FRI MORNING WHEN THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM
30N128W TO 25N140W.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO AFFECT MOST OF THE WATERS W OF
110W WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 115W. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEK SHOULD KICK OFF A NEW AND
VIGOROUS TEHUANTEPECER ON FRIDAY. WHILE THE BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MAY CAUSE SOME
SPORADIC WEAK GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON
THURSDAY...A STRONGER AND MORE CONTINUOUS EVENT IS EXPECTED
BEGINNING ON LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS
CURRENTLY ARE CALLING FOR EITHER NEAR GALE OR GALE CONDITIONS AT
ITS PEAK. THE EVENT SHOULD FADE BY MONDAY.

$$
GR



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 281943
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA ESPECIAL SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT MARTES 28 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UNA ONDA TROPICAL INTERACTUANDO CON UNA VAGUADA EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS
ESTA PRODUCIENDO UN AREA CONCENTRADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS A
VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL ESTE NORESTE DEL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS DE
SOTAVENTO. DEBIDO A QUE SE ESPERA QUE LOS VIENTOS EN LA ALTA
ATMOSFERA ESTEN MARGINALMENTE CONDUCENTES, ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL
DE ESTE DISTURBIO ES POSIBLE MIENTRAS SE MUEVA HACIA EL OESTE
NOROESTE U NOROESTE DE 10 A 15 MPH DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. PARA
EL FIN DE SEMANA...LAS CONDICIONES SE ESPERAN TORNARSE DESFAVORABLES
PARA UN DESARROLLO DE CICLON TROPICAL.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...30 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...40 POR CIENTO.

UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION DEFINIDA...LOS REMANENTES DE LA TORMENTA
TROPICAL HANNA...SE HA MOVIDO SOBRE EL GOLFO DE HONDURAS CERCA DE
ROATAN. ESTE SISTEMA ESTA PRODUCIENDO AGUACEROS DISPERSOS A TRAVES
DEL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE Y LAS AREAS ADJACENTES DEL NORTE DE
HONDURAS...LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...Y BELIZE. AUNQUE LOS VIENTOS
ESTAN UN TANTO FAVORABLES...LA PROXIMIDAD A TIERRA SE ESPERA
PREVENGA CUALQUIER RE DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO DE ESTE DISTURBIO
MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A COMO 10 MPH. SE
PRONOSTICA QUE ESTE SISTEMA SE MUEVA TIERRA ADENTRO SOBRE BELIZE Y
EL NORTE DE GUATEMALA PARA EL MIERCOLES EN LA MANANA...FINALIZANDO
CUALQUIER OPORTUNIDAD DE RE DESARROLLO DESPUES DE ESE TIEMPO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

&&

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART





000
AXNT20 KNHC 281803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN
53W AND 60W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES WNW TO NW OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N62W TO 9N64W...MOVING W AT
15-20 KT. SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE TO HIGH DEEP LAYER MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
THIS WAVE IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
16N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES TO 9N17W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR
9N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N30W TO 9N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING ALONG MUCH OF THE ITCZ
FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 20W AND 57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS IS DIGGING SE TOWARD THE NW
GULF. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ACROSS TX. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING ACROSS THE NW GULF WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 20 KT W OF 96W. A 1024 SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED IN THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 22N72W EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
GULF BASIN. THIS HIGH IS PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KT ACROSS THE GULF E OF 96W. DRY AIR IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HANNA
WILL MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HANNA IS NEAR THE N COAST
OF HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH OF
THE LOW TO 20N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS
EXTEND ACROSS HONDURAS AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 21N
BETWEEN 79W AND 88W. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS CONVECTION FREE
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS SPREADING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND E CARIBBEAN. SEE
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE WEST TO NORTHWEST WHICH COULD
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OF A DECAYED STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NE
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH IS
PROVIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THAT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE IN COVERAGE IN SHOWERS AN
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA NNE TO BERMUDA.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 28N60W TO 20N69W
...AND A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N56W TO 27N71W. NO CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT DUE TO DRY AIR. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM OF THE
TROUGH. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 18N56W THAT IS
BEING LEFT BEHIND BY A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. THIS
SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION.  A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N39W AND
DOMINATES THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WITH FAIR WEATHER AND
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW W OF 50W N OF 20N. OTHERWISE...SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR




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