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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040242
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JUL 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

BANDS OF CONVECTION AROUND A 1007 MB LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR
06N120W HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW FORMED ALONG
A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IN A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION THAT
HAS BEEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 135W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED NE
OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IN THE CONTINUOUS OUTFLOW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS SOMEWHAT EXPOSED
CURRENTLY WITH WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR...BUT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST AND TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY W-NW.

A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N138W IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY
BUT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NW THROUGH SAT. AN 18 UTC ASCAT PASS
INDICATED FRESH WINDS N THE E AND NW QUADRANTS OF THE LOW PRES.
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL FOR
POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY NW.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W/94W N OF 10N MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE WAVE OVER
THE WATER.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 109W/110W FROM 08N TO 14N MOVING W AT 10 TO
15 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS UP WEAKLY IN REMOTE SENSED DATA BUT IS
WELL INITIALIZED IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN
GLOBAL MODELS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE
WAVE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS 107W AND
113W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 06N80W TO 08N85W TO
10N93W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N93W TO 09N110W TO 13N117W...AND
FROM LOW PRES NEAR 06N120W 1007 MB TO 09N130W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF
80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240 NM EITHER
SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN 95W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...
N OF 15N E OF 120W...A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS IN
PLACE BETWEEN 1005 MB LOW PRES IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AND WEAK 1017 MB HIGH PRES W OF THE AREA IS ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA EUGENIA. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS...AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 8 FT. FARTHER SOUTH...A
SMALL UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N97W IS SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ITS SOUTH CLOSER TO THE ITCZ. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT OVER OPEN WATERS ELSEWHERE N OF 15N
E OF 120W.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...A 2230 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS INDICATES 20 TO
25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...INDICATIVE OF STRONG TRADE WIND
FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THAT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG GAP
WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND OTHER AREAS ALONG THE
NICARAGUAN COAST. THE MAIN PULSES ARE OCCURRING
OVERNIGHT...WITH A PLUME OF FRESH SWELL TO 8 FT PROPAGATING AS
FAR WEST AS 92W DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
START TO ABATE BY 48 HOURS. FRESH GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA AS WELL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 90W AND 100W...ENHANCED BY GAP WIND CONVERGENCE TO SOME
EXTENT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...A KELVIN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS HELPED
INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAKING MUCH OF THE ITCZ REGION
ACTIVE BETWEEN 90W AND 125W AS NOTED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE.
THIS IS RESULTING IN A BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ AS EVIDENCED BY THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRES AREAS NEAR 06N120W AND 13N138W. THE ONLY
OTHER MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE IS A WEAK
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF 20N...SUPPORTING WEAK MODEST TRADE WINDS
OUTSIDE OF AREAS NEAR THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES AREAS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040242
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JUL 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

BANDS OF CONVECTION AROUND A 1007 MB LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR
06N120W HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW FORMED ALONG
A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IN A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION THAT
HAS BEEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 135W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED NE
OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IN THE CONTINUOUS OUTFLOW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS SOMEWHAT EXPOSED
CURRENTLY WITH WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR...BUT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST AND TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY W-NW.

A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N138W IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY
BUT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NW THROUGH SAT. AN 18 UTC ASCAT PASS
INDICATED FRESH WINDS N THE E AND NW QUADRANTS OF THE LOW PRES.
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL FOR
POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY NW.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W/94W N OF 10N MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE WAVE OVER
THE WATER.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 109W/110W FROM 08N TO 14N MOVING W AT 10 TO
15 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS UP WEAKLY IN REMOTE SENSED DATA BUT IS
WELL INITIALIZED IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN
GLOBAL MODELS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE
WAVE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS 107W AND
113W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 06N80W TO 08N85W TO
10N93W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N93W TO 09N110W TO 13N117W...AND
FROM LOW PRES NEAR 06N120W 1007 MB TO 09N130W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF
80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240 NM EITHER
SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN 95W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...
N OF 15N E OF 120W...A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS IN
PLACE BETWEEN 1005 MB LOW PRES IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AND WEAK 1017 MB HIGH PRES W OF THE AREA IS ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA EUGENIA. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS...AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 8 FT. FARTHER SOUTH...A
SMALL UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N97W IS SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ITS SOUTH CLOSER TO THE ITCZ. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT OVER OPEN WATERS ELSEWHERE N OF 15N
E OF 120W.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...A 2230 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS INDICATES 20 TO
25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...INDICATIVE OF STRONG TRADE WIND
FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THAT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG GAP
WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND OTHER AREAS ALONG THE
NICARAGUAN COAST. THE MAIN PULSES ARE OCCURRING
OVERNIGHT...WITH A PLUME OF FRESH SWELL TO 8 FT PROPAGATING AS
FAR WEST AS 92W DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
START TO ABATE BY 48 HOURS. FRESH GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA AS WELL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 90W AND 100W...ENHANCED BY GAP WIND CONVERGENCE TO SOME
EXTENT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...A KELVIN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS HELPED
INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAKING MUCH OF THE ITCZ REGION
ACTIVE BETWEEN 90W AND 125W AS NOTED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE.
THIS IS RESULTING IN A BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ AS EVIDENCED BY THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRES AREAS NEAR 06N120W AND 13N138W. THE ONLY
OTHER MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE IS A WEAK
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF 20N...SUPPORTING WEAK MODEST TRADE WINDS
OUTSIDE OF AREAS NEAR THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES AREAS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040242
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JUL 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

BANDS OF CONVECTION AROUND A 1007 MB LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR
06N120W HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW FORMED ALONG
A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IN A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION THAT
HAS BEEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 135W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED NE
OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IN THE CONTINUOUS OUTFLOW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS SOMEWHAT EXPOSED
CURRENTLY WITH WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR...BUT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST AND TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY W-NW.

A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N138W IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY
BUT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NW THROUGH SAT. AN 18 UTC ASCAT PASS
INDICATED FRESH WINDS N THE E AND NW QUADRANTS OF THE LOW PRES.
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL FOR
POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY NW.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W/94W N OF 10N MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE WAVE OVER
THE WATER.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 109W/110W FROM 08N TO 14N MOVING W AT 10 TO
15 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS UP WEAKLY IN REMOTE SENSED DATA BUT IS
WELL INITIALIZED IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN
GLOBAL MODELS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE
WAVE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS 107W AND
113W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 06N80W TO 08N85W TO
10N93W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N93W TO 09N110W TO 13N117W...AND
FROM LOW PRES NEAR 06N120W 1007 MB TO 09N130W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF
80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240 NM EITHER
SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN 95W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...
N OF 15N E OF 120W...A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS IN
PLACE BETWEEN 1005 MB LOW PRES IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AND WEAK 1017 MB HIGH PRES W OF THE AREA IS ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA EUGENIA. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS...AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 8 FT. FARTHER SOUTH...A
SMALL UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N97W IS SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ITS SOUTH CLOSER TO THE ITCZ. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT OVER OPEN WATERS ELSEWHERE N OF 15N
E OF 120W.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...A 2230 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS INDICATES 20 TO
25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...INDICATIVE OF STRONG TRADE WIND
FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THAT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG GAP
WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND OTHER AREAS ALONG THE
NICARAGUAN COAST. THE MAIN PULSES ARE OCCURRING
OVERNIGHT...WITH A PLUME OF FRESH SWELL TO 8 FT PROPAGATING AS
FAR WEST AS 92W DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
START TO ABATE BY 48 HOURS. FRESH GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA AS WELL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 90W AND 100W...ENHANCED BY GAP WIND CONVERGENCE TO SOME
EXTENT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...A KELVIN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS HELPED
INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAKING MUCH OF THE ITCZ REGION
ACTIVE BETWEEN 90W AND 125W AS NOTED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE.
THIS IS RESULTING IN A BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ AS EVIDENCED BY THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRES AREAS NEAR 06N120W AND 13N138W. THE ONLY
OTHER MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE IS A WEAK
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF 20N...SUPPORTING WEAK MODEST TRADE WINDS
OUTSIDE OF AREAS NEAR THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES AREAS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040242
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JUL 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

BANDS OF CONVECTION AROUND A 1007 MB LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR
06N120W HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW FORMED ALONG
A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IN A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION THAT
HAS BEEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 135W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED NE
OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IN THE CONTINUOUS OUTFLOW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS SOMEWHAT EXPOSED
CURRENTLY WITH WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR...BUT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST AND TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY W-NW.

A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N138W IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY
BUT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NW THROUGH SAT. AN 18 UTC ASCAT PASS
INDICATED FRESH WINDS N THE E AND NW QUADRANTS OF THE LOW PRES.
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL FOR
POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY NW.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W/94W N OF 10N MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE WAVE OVER
THE WATER.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 109W/110W FROM 08N TO 14N MOVING W AT 10 TO
15 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS UP WEAKLY IN REMOTE SENSED DATA BUT IS
WELL INITIALIZED IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN
GLOBAL MODELS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE
WAVE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS 107W AND
113W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 06N80W TO 08N85W TO
10N93W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N93W TO 09N110W TO 13N117W...AND
FROM LOW PRES NEAR 06N120W 1007 MB TO 09N130W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF
80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240 NM EITHER
SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN 95W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...
N OF 15N E OF 120W...A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS IN
PLACE BETWEEN 1005 MB LOW PRES IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AND WEAK 1017 MB HIGH PRES W OF THE AREA IS ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA EUGENIA. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS...AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 8 FT. FARTHER SOUTH...A
SMALL UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N97W IS SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ITS SOUTH CLOSER TO THE ITCZ. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT OVER OPEN WATERS ELSEWHERE N OF 15N
E OF 120W.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...A 2230 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS INDICATES 20 TO
25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...INDICATIVE OF STRONG TRADE WIND
FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THAT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG GAP
WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND OTHER AREAS ALONG THE
NICARAGUAN COAST. THE MAIN PULSES ARE OCCURRING
OVERNIGHT...WITH A PLUME OF FRESH SWELL TO 8 FT PROPAGATING AS
FAR WEST AS 92W DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
START TO ABATE BY 48 HOURS. FRESH GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA AS WELL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 90W AND 100W...ENHANCED BY GAP WIND CONVERGENCE TO SOME
EXTENT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...A KELVIN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS HELPED
INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAKING MUCH OF THE ITCZ REGION
ACTIVE BETWEEN 90W AND 125W AS NOTED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE.
THIS IS RESULTING IN A BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ AS EVIDENCED BY THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRES AREAS NEAR 06N120W AND 13N138W. THE ONLY
OTHER MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE IS A WEAK
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF 20N...SUPPORTING WEAK MODEST TRADE WINDS
OUTSIDE OF AREAS NEAR THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES AREAS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040242
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JUL 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

BANDS OF CONVECTION AROUND A 1007 MB LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR
06N120W HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW FORMED ALONG
A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IN A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION THAT
HAS BEEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 135W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED NE
OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IN THE CONTINUOUS OUTFLOW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS SOMEWHAT EXPOSED
CURRENTLY WITH WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR...BUT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST AND TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY W-NW.

A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N138W IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY
BUT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NW THROUGH SAT. AN 18 UTC ASCAT PASS
INDICATED FRESH WINDS N THE E AND NW QUADRANTS OF THE LOW PRES.
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL FOR
POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY NW.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W/94W N OF 10N MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE WAVE OVER
THE WATER.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 109W/110W FROM 08N TO 14N MOVING W AT 10 TO
15 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS UP WEAKLY IN REMOTE SENSED DATA BUT IS
WELL INITIALIZED IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN
GLOBAL MODELS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE
WAVE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS 107W AND
113W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 06N80W TO 08N85W TO
10N93W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N93W TO 09N110W TO 13N117W...AND
FROM LOW PRES NEAR 06N120W 1007 MB TO 09N130W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF
80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240 NM EITHER
SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN 95W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...
N OF 15N E OF 120W...A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS IN
PLACE BETWEEN 1005 MB LOW PRES IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AND WEAK 1017 MB HIGH PRES W OF THE AREA IS ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA EUGENIA. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS...AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 8 FT. FARTHER SOUTH...A
SMALL UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N97W IS SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ITS SOUTH CLOSER TO THE ITCZ. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT OVER OPEN WATERS ELSEWHERE N OF 15N
E OF 120W.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...A 2230 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS INDICATES 20 TO
25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...INDICATIVE OF STRONG TRADE WIND
FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THAT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG GAP
WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND OTHER AREAS ALONG THE
NICARAGUAN COAST. THE MAIN PULSES ARE OCCURRING
OVERNIGHT...WITH A PLUME OF FRESH SWELL TO 8 FT PROPAGATING AS
FAR WEST AS 92W DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
START TO ABATE BY 48 HOURS. FRESH GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA AS WELL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 90W AND 100W...ENHANCED BY GAP WIND CONVERGENCE TO SOME
EXTENT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...A KELVIN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS HELPED
INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAKING MUCH OF THE ITCZ REGION
ACTIVE BETWEEN 90W AND 125W AS NOTED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE.
THIS IS RESULTING IN A BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ AS EVIDENCED BY THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRES AREAS NEAR 06N120W AND 13N138W. THE ONLY
OTHER MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE IS A WEAK
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF 20N...SUPPORTING WEAK MODEST TRADE WINDS
OUTSIDE OF AREAS NEAR THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES AREAS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 040115
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANGKA (11W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
1100 AM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANGKA HEADING AWAY FROM WOTJE...

CHANGES THIS WARNING
--------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR UTIRIK AND WOTJE
ATOLLS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73
MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK...KWAJALEIN
AND UJAE ATOLLS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 169.7E

ABOUT   45 MILES NORTHWEST OF WOTJE
ABOUT   95 MILES SOUTH OF UTIRIK
ABOUT  215 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT  150 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN
ABOUT  290 MILES EAST OF UJAE
ABOUT  510 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT 1705 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NANGKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
169.7 DEGREES EAST. NANGKA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. NANGKA
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK
WOULD BRING NANGKA NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF ENEWETAK SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANGKA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE WEEKEND...LIKELY BECOMING
A TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AT 200 PM FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
AT 500 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 040115
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANGKA (11W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
1100 AM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANGKA HEADING AWAY FROM WOTJE...

CHANGES THIS WARNING
--------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR UTIRIK AND WOTJE
ATOLLS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73
MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK...KWAJALEIN
AND UJAE ATOLLS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 169.7E

ABOUT   45 MILES NORTHWEST OF WOTJE
ABOUT   95 MILES SOUTH OF UTIRIK
ABOUT  215 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT  150 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN
ABOUT  290 MILES EAST OF UJAE
ABOUT  510 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT 1705 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NANGKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
169.7 DEGREES EAST. NANGKA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. NANGKA
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK
WOULD BRING NANGKA NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF ENEWETAK SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANGKA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE WEEKEND...LIKELY BECOMING
A TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AT 200 PM FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
AT 500 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 040104
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 AM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 148.4E

ABOUT 245 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 255 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND
ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST...345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.4
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY...
AND PASS THROUGH THE MARIANAS NEAR SAIPAN SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER...PRIMARILY IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY...
POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AT 200 PM FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 040104
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 AM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 148.4E

ABOUT 245 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 255 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND
ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST...345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.4
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY...
AND PASS THROUGH THE MARIANAS NEAR SAIPAN SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER...PRIMARILY IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY...
POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AT 200 PM FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 040104
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 AM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 148.4E

ABOUT 245 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 255 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND
ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST...345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.4
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY...
AND PASS THROUGH THE MARIANAS NEAR SAIPAN SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER...PRIMARILY IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY...
POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AT 200 PM FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 040104
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 AM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 148.4E

ABOUT 245 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 255 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND
ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST...345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.4
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY...
AND PASS THROUGH THE MARIANAS NEAR SAIPAN SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER...PRIMARILY IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY...
POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AT 200 PM FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 040010
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT VIERNES 3 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 040010
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT VIERNES 3 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART



000
ACPN50 PHFO 032352
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST FRI JUL 3 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED MORE THAN 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII. SURFACE AND UPPER AIR CONDITIONS NEAR THE FEATURE
MAY ALLOW SOME LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT
EVENTUALLY HEADS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...40 PERCENT.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 850 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII...ARE BEING GENERATED BY A SLOW-MOVING DISTURBANCE.
WITH CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THOSE WITH THE OTHER DISTURBANCE
DISCUSSED ABOVE...LIMITED DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS THIS ONE HEADS SLOWLY NORTH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

KINEL




000
ACPN50 PHFO 032352
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST FRI JUL 3 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED MORE THAN 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII. SURFACE AND UPPER AIR CONDITIONS NEAR THE FEATURE
MAY ALLOW SOME LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT
EVENTUALLY HEADS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...40 PERCENT.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 850 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII...ARE BEING GENERATED BY A SLOW-MOVING DISTURBANCE.
WITH CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THOSE WITH THE OTHER DISTURBANCE
DISCUSSED ABOVE...LIMITED DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS THIS ONE HEADS SLOWLY NORTH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

KINEL





000
AXNT20 KNHC 032350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM 11N
TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING FROM 12
TO 16 FT. GALE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG
24W/25W FROM 05N TO 16N...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATELY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN AIR N OF
12N ALONG THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO
10N E OF 25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 41W
FROM 04N TO 13W...MOVING W AT 5 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY INDICATES A SAHARAN AIR LAYER N OF 10N
IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
07N TO 10N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 67W/68W
S OF 17N...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THIS WAVE
IS EMBEDDED IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE MOISTURE WITH
METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY INDICATING SAHARAN AIR N OF 12N WHICH
IS INHIBITING CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF AFRICA
NEAR 11N16W TO 08N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 07N26W AND CONTINUES
TO 08N40W...RESUMING W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N43W TO
NORTHERN COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 04N51W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W WITH A TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE FL WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
GULF E OF 91W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE MEXICO COAST FROM
24N97W TO 18N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N84W
IS A WESTERN EXTENSION OF BROAD SURFACE RIDGING THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC AND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. LIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF. S TO SE WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KT COVER THE WESTERN GULF. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US MAY BRING AN INCREASE OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ON SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN COLOMBIAN COASTAL WATERS. PLEASE SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS S OF 18N BETWEEN 69W AND 82W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE
PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 TO 13 FEET. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
SUPPORTING A CONVECTION FREE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND...
HINDERING CONVECTION AND SUPPORTING HAZY CONDITIONS. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N70W SUPPORTS
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 77W AND
SOUTH FL. THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
26N TO 30N BETWEEN 67W AND 71W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 25N47W COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLC BASIN. TWO WEAKNESSES IN THE RIDGE IN THE FORM
OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE WESTERNMOST
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N56W TO 26N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE EASTERNMOST
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N45W TO 23N45W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITH THIS TROUGH. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL
NORTHERN ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 032350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM 11N
TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING FROM 12
TO 16 FT. GALE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG
24W/25W FROM 05N TO 16N...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATELY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN AIR N OF
12N ALONG THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO
10N E OF 25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 41W
FROM 04N TO 13W...MOVING W AT 5 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY INDICATES A SAHARAN AIR LAYER N OF 10N
IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
07N TO 10N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 67W/68W
S OF 17N...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THIS WAVE
IS EMBEDDED IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE MOISTURE WITH
METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY INDICATING SAHARAN AIR N OF 12N WHICH
IS INHIBITING CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF AFRICA
NEAR 11N16W TO 08N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 07N26W AND CONTINUES
TO 08N40W...RESUMING W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N43W TO
NORTHERN COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 04N51W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W WITH A TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE FL WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
GULF E OF 91W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE MEXICO COAST FROM
24N97W TO 18N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N84W
IS A WESTERN EXTENSION OF BROAD SURFACE RIDGING THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC AND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. LIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF. S TO SE WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KT COVER THE WESTERN GULF. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US MAY BRING AN INCREASE OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ON SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN COLOMBIAN COASTAL WATERS. PLEASE SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS S OF 18N BETWEEN 69W AND 82W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE
PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 TO 13 FEET. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
SUPPORTING A CONVECTION FREE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND...
HINDERING CONVECTION AND SUPPORTING HAZY CONDITIONS. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N70W SUPPORTS
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 77W AND
SOUTH FL. THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
26N TO 30N BETWEEN 67W AND 71W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 25N47W COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLC BASIN. TWO WEAKNESSES IN THE RIDGE IN THE FORM
OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE WESTERNMOST
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N56W TO 26N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE EASTERNMOST
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N45W TO 23N45W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITH THIS TROUGH. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL
NORTHERN ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 032350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM 11N
TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING FROM 12
TO 16 FT. GALE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG
24W/25W FROM 05N TO 16N...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATELY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN AIR N OF
12N ALONG THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO
10N E OF 25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 41W
FROM 04N TO 13W...MOVING W AT 5 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY INDICATES A SAHARAN AIR LAYER N OF 10N
IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
07N TO 10N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 67W/68W
S OF 17N...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THIS WAVE
IS EMBEDDED IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE MOISTURE WITH
METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY INDICATING SAHARAN AIR N OF 12N WHICH
IS INHIBITING CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF AFRICA
NEAR 11N16W TO 08N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 07N26W AND CONTINUES
TO 08N40W...RESUMING W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N43W TO
NORTHERN COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 04N51W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W WITH A TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE FL WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
GULF E OF 91W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE MEXICO COAST FROM
24N97W TO 18N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N84W
IS A WESTERN EXTENSION OF BROAD SURFACE RIDGING THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC AND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. LIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF. S TO SE WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KT COVER THE WESTERN GULF. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US MAY BRING AN INCREASE OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ON SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN COLOMBIAN COASTAL WATERS. PLEASE SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS S OF 18N BETWEEN 69W AND 82W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE
PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 TO 13 FEET. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
SUPPORTING A CONVECTION FREE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND...
HINDERING CONVECTION AND SUPPORTING HAZY CONDITIONS. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N70W SUPPORTS
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 77W AND
SOUTH FL. THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
26N TO 30N BETWEEN 67W AND 71W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 25N47W COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLC BASIN. TWO WEAKNESSES IN THE RIDGE IN THE FORM
OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE WESTERNMOST
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N56W TO 26N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE EASTERNMOST
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N45W TO 23N45W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITH THIS TROUGH. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL
NORTHERN ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 032350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM 11N
TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING FROM 12
TO 16 FT. GALE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG
24W/25W FROM 05N TO 16N...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATELY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN AIR N OF
12N ALONG THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO
10N E OF 25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 41W
FROM 04N TO 13W...MOVING W AT 5 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY INDICATES A SAHARAN AIR LAYER N OF 10N
IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
07N TO 10N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 67W/68W
S OF 17N...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THIS WAVE
IS EMBEDDED IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE MOISTURE WITH
METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY INDICATING SAHARAN AIR N OF 12N WHICH
IS INHIBITING CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF AFRICA
NEAR 11N16W TO 08N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 07N26W AND CONTINUES
TO 08N40W...RESUMING W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N43W TO
NORTHERN COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 04N51W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W WITH A TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE FL WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
GULF E OF 91W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE MEXICO COAST FROM
24N97W TO 18N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N84W
IS A WESTERN EXTENSION OF BROAD SURFACE RIDGING THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC AND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. LIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF. S TO SE WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KT COVER THE WESTERN GULF. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US MAY BRING AN INCREASE OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ON SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN COLOMBIAN COASTAL WATERS. PLEASE SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS S OF 18N BETWEEN 69W AND 82W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE
PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 TO 13 FEET. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
SUPPORTING A CONVECTION FREE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND...
HINDERING CONVECTION AND SUPPORTING HAZY CONDITIONS. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N70W SUPPORTS
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 77W AND
SOUTH FL. THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
26N TO 30N BETWEEN 67W AND 71W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 25N47W COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLC BASIN. TWO WEAKNESSES IN THE RIDGE IN THE FORM
OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE WESTERNMOST
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N56W TO 26N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE EASTERNMOST
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N45W TO 23N45W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITH THIS TROUGH. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL
NORTHERN ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 032332
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A small low pressure area located about 1300 miles east-southeast
of the Hawaiian Islands is producing limited shower activity.
Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally
conducive for development over the next couple of days before
upper-level winds become unfavorable by Monday. The low is forecast
to move slowly west-northwestward for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad area of low pressure is
producing a large area of cloudiness and scattered showers more than
1300 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas Mexico. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by early next week while the
system moves to the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 032305
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 032305
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 032305
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 032305
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
WTPQ83 PGUM 032247
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 AM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANGKA PASSING NEAR WOTJE...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...INCLUDING ENEWETAK...
UJAE...KWAJALEIN...UTIRIK AND WOTJE ATOLLS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR WOTJE AND UTIRIK ATOLLS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR ENEWETAK...KWAJALEIN AND
UJAE ATOLLS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO
73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 169.7 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT   35 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF WOTJE
        ABOUT  195 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
        ABOUT  120 MILES SOUTH OF UTIRIK
        ABOUT  140 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN
        ABOUT  290 MILES EAST OF UJAE AND
        ABOUT  515 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ENEWETAK

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANGKA JUST
NORTH OF KWAJALEIN AND UJAE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. NANGKA IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TROPICAL
STORM THIS AFTERNOON.

...WOTJE...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
STAY IN A STURDY SHELTER AWAY FROM SHORELINES UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE
LATER THIS EVENING. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL
SEAS AND WINDS SUBSIDE. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AND DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS NANGKA MOVES AWAY TO THE
WEST. SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
OVERNIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 11 TO 13 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE SUNDAY. LARGE WAVES WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF UP TO 15
FEET. COASTAL INUNDATION UP TO 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG WEST AND
SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

...UTIRIK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
STAY IN A STURDY SHELTER AWAY FROM SHORELINES UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE
LATER THIS EVENING. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL
SEAS AND WINDS SUBSIDE. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
EAST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS NANGKA CONTINUES WEST AWAY FROM UTIRIK.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 11 TO 13 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE SUNDAY. LARGE WAVES WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF UP TO 15
FEET. COASTAL INUNDATION UP TO 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG NORTH AND
EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

...KWAJALEIN AND UJAE...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE PREPARED TO SEEK STURDY SHELTER IN CASE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ISSUED. THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS DAMAGING WINDS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NANGKA NORTH OF BOTH KWAJALEIN AND UJAE. HOWEVER...A SMALL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO BOTH
LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-
ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL SEAS AND WINDS SUBSIDE. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM
YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH THIS MORNING
WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY
DECREASING SUNDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE WAVES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF UP TO
14 FEET AND BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET OF COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG NORTH
AND WEST FACING SHORES THROUGH SUNDAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE PREPARED TO SEEK STURDY SHELTER IN CASE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ISSUED. THE CURRENT TRACK HAS TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANGKA
INTENSIFYING INTO A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS MORNING AND BRINGS
DAMAGING WINDS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. UNTIL SEAS AND WINDS
SUBSIDE...DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY EVENING...AND
COULD LAST UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FEET WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND PEAKING AT
BETWEEN 12 AND 16 FEET MONDAY MORNING. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 8 TO 12
FEET WILL BUILD TO DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 13 TO 18 FEET BY MONDAY
MORNING AS THE CENTER OF 11W NEARS. SURF WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES AS NANGKA APPROACHES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W PASSES BY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 900 AM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

M. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ83 PGUM 032247
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 AM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANGKA PASSING NEAR WOTJE...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...INCLUDING ENEWETAK...
UJAE...KWAJALEIN...UTIRIK AND WOTJE ATOLLS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR WOTJE AND UTIRIK ATOLLS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR ENEWETAK...KWAJALEIN AND
UJAE ATOLLS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO
73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 169.7 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT   35 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF WOTJE
        ABOUT  195 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
        ABOUT  120 MILES SOUTH OF UTIRIK
        ABOUT  140 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN
        ABOUT  290 MILES EAST OF UJAE AND
        ABOUT  515 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ENEWETAK

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANGKA JUST
NORTH OF KWAJALEIN AND UJAE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. NANGKA IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TROPICAL
STORM THIS AFTERNOON.

...WOTJE...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
STAY IN A STURDY SHELTER AWAY FROM SHORELINES UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE
LATER THIS EVENING. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL
SEAS AND WINDS SUBSIDE. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AND DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS NANGKA MOVES AWAY TO THE
WEST. SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
OVERNIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 11 TO 13 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE SUNDAY. LARGE WAVES WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF UP TO 15
FEET. COASTAL INUNDATION UP TO 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG WEST AND
SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

...UTIRIK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
STAY IN A STURDY SHELTER AWAY FROM SHORELINES UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE
LATER THIS EVENING. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL
SEAS AND WINDS SUBSIDE. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
EAST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS NANGKA CONTINUES WEST AWAY FROM UTIRIK.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 11 TO 13 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE SUNDAY. LARGE WAVES WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF UP TO 15
FEET. COASTAL INUNDATION UP TO 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG NORTH AND
EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

...KWAJALEIN AND UJAE...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE PREPARED TO SEEK STURDY SHELTER IN CASE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ISSUED. THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS DAMAGING WINDS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NANGKA NORTH OF BOTH KWAJALEIN AND UJAE. HOWEVER...A SMALL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO BOTH
LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-
ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL SEAS AND WINDS SUBSIDE. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM
YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH THIS MORNING
WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY
DECREASING SUNDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE WAVES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF UP TO
14 FEET AND BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET OF COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG NORTH
AND WEST FACING SHORES THROUGH SUNDAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE PREPARED TO SEEK STURDY SHELTER IN CASE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ISSUED. THE CURRENT TRACK HAS TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANGKA
INTENSIFYING INTO A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS MORNING AND BRINGS
DAMAGING WINDS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. UNTIL SEAS AND WINDS
SUBSIDE...DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY EVENING...AND
COULD LAST UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FEET WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND PEAKING AT
BETWEEN 12 AND 16 FEET MONDAY MORNING. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 8 TO 12
FEET WILL BUILD TO DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 13 TO 18 FEET BY MONDAY
MORNING AS THE CENTER OF 11W NEARS. SURF WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES AS NANGKA APPROACHES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W PASSES BY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 900 AM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ81 PGUM 032246
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
846 AM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM SLOWLY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH CONTINUES FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN...SAIPAN AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.7
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 290 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...
290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA...AND 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
AND TINIAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY.
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TYPHOON BEFORE IT PASSES NEAR SAIPAN
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
TRACK AND INTENSITY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE TO PUT YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN INTO ACTION. MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS...AS WELL AS
FUEL FOR VEHICLES AND GENERATORS. BEGIN PREPARING YOUR PROPERTY
FOR TYPHOON CONDITIONS...POSSIBLE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM NEAR TINIAN AND
SAIPAN SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
TRACK AND INTENSITY. THUS...EVEN THOUGH SAIPAN AND TINIAN ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST WINDS...RESIDENTS OF
GUAM AND ROTA SHOULD STILL PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES AND CONTINUE PREPARATIONS. THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR UNFORESEEN CHANGES TO OCCUR THAT COULD PUT GUAM OR
ROTA AT GREATER RISK.

FOR MARINERS...SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE
IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. BECAUSE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN
FORECAST TRACK ARE EXPECTED...LISTEN FOR UPDATED FORECAST
INFORMATION.

&&

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-040700-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
846 AM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS CHAN-HOM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY...WITH TYPHOON FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR TINIAN AND SAIPAN. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING.

SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET TODAY WILL BUILD AS CHAN-HOM NEARS AND
COULD REACH UP TO 20 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT NEAR THE CENTER.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 12 FEET TODAY MAY BUILD TO DANGEROUS
LEVELS OF 17 TO 22 FEET SUNDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS TINIAN
AND SAIPAN. DANGEROUS SURF WILL SUBSIDE BY MONDAY MORNING.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES OF ESPECIALLY TINIAN AND SAIPAN AS CHAN-HOM APPROACHES.

...INLAND FLOODING...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. BRIEF FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 3 PM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE



000
WTPQ81 PGUM 032246
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
846 AM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM SLOWLY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH CONTINUES FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN...SAIPAN AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.7
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 290 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...
290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA...AND 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
AND TINIAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY.
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TYPHOON BEFORE IT PASSES NEAR SAIPAN
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
TRACK AND INTENSITY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE TO PUT YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN INTO ACTION. MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS...AS WELL AS
FUEL FOR VEHICLES AND GENERATORS. BEGIN PREPARING YOUR PROPERTY
FOR TYPHOON CONDITIONS...POSSIBLE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM NEAR TINIAN AND
SAIPAN SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
TRACK AND INTENSITY. THUS...EVEN THOUGH SAIPAN AND TINIAN ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST WINDS...RESIDENTS OF
GUAM AND ROTA SHOULD STILL PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES AND CONTINUE PREPARATIONS. THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR UNFORESEEN CHANGES TO OCCUR THAT COULD PUT GUAM OR
ROTA AT GREATER RISK.

FOR MARINERS...SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE
IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. BECAUSE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN
FORECAST TRACK ARE EXPECTED...LISTEN FOR UPDATED FORECAST
INFORMATION.

&&

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-040700-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
846 AM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS CHAN-HOM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY...WITH TYPHOON FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR TINIAN AND SAIPAN. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING.

SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET TODAY WILL BUILD AS CHAN-HOM NEARS AND
COULD REACH UP TO 20 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT NEAR THE CENTER.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 12 FEET TODAY MAY BUILD TO DANGEROUS
LEVELS OF 17 TO 22 FEET SUNDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS TINIAN
AND SAIPAN. DANGEROUS SURF WILL SUBSIDE BY MONDAY MORNING.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES OF ESPECIALLY TINIAN AND SAIPAN AS CHAN-HOM APPROACHES.

...INLAND FLOODING...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. BRIEF FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 3 PM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE



000
WTPQ81 PGUM 032246
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
846 AM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM SLOWLY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH CONTINUES FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN...SAIPAN AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.7
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 290 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...
290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA...AND 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
AND TINIAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY.
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TYPHOON BEFORE IT PASSES NEAR SAIPAN
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
TRACK AND INTENSITY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE TO PUT YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN INTO ACTION. MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS...AS WELL AS
FUEL FOR VEHICLES AND GENERATORS. BEGIN PREPARING YOUR PROPERTY
FOR TYPHOON CONDITIONS...POSSIBLE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM NEAR TINIAN AND
SAIPAN SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
TRACK AND INTENSITY. THUS...EVEN THOUGH SAIPAN AND TINIAN ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST WINDS...RESIDENTS OF
GUAM AND ROTA SHOULD STILL PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES AND CONTINUE PREPARATIONS. THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR UNFORESEEN CHANGES TO OCCUR THAT COULD PUT GUAM OR
ROTA AT GREATER RISK.

FOR MARINERS...SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE
IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. BECAUSE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN
FORECAST TRACK ARE EXPECTED...LISTEN FOR UPDATED FORECAST
INFORMATION.

&&

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-040700-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
846 AM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS CHAN-HOM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY...WITH TYPHOON FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR TINIAN AND SAIPAN. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING.

SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET TODAY WILL BUILD AS CHAN-HOM NEARS AND
COULD REACH UP TO 20 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT NEAR THE CENTER.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 12 FEET TODAY MAY BUILD TO DANGEROUS
LEVELS OF 17 TO 22 FEET SUNDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS TINIAN
AND SAIPAN. DANGEROUS SURF WILL SUBSIDE BY MONDAY MORNING.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES OF ESPECIALLY TINIAN AND SAIPAN AS CHAN-HOM APPROACHES.

...INLAND FLOODING...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. BRIEF FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 3 PM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE



000
WTPQ81 PGUM 032246
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
846 AM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM SLOWLY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH CONTINUES FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN...SAIPAN AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.7
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 290 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...
290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA...AND 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
AND TINIAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY.
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TYPHOON BEFORE IT PASSES NEAR SAIPAN
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
TRACK AND INTENSITY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE TO PUT YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN INTO ACTION. MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS...AS WELL AS
FUEL FOR VEHICLES AND GENERATORS. BEGIN PREPARING YOUR PROPERTY
FOR TYPHOON CONDITIONS...POSSIBLE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM NEAR TINIAN AND
SAIPAN SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
TRACK AND INTENSITY. THUS...EVEN THOUGH SAIPAN AND TINIAN ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST WINDS...RESIDENTS OF
GUAM AND ROTA SHOULD STILL PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES AND CONTINUE PREPARATIONS. THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR UNFORESEEN CHANGES TO OCCUR THAT COULD PUT GUAM OR
ROTA AT GREATER RISK.

FOR MARINERS...SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE
IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. BECAUSE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN
FORECAST TRACK ARE EXPECTED...LISTEN FOR UPDATED FORECAST
INFORMATION.

&&

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-040700-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
846 AM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS CHAN-HOM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY...WITH TYPHOON FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR TINIAN AND SAIPAN. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING.

SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET TODAY WILL BUILD AS CHAN-HOM NEARS AND
COULD REACH UP TO 20 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT NEAR THE CENTER.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 12 FEET TODAY MAY BUILD TO DANGEROUS
LEVELS OF 17 TO 22 FEET SUNDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS TINIAN
AND SAIPAN. DANGEROUS SURF WILL SUBSIDE BY MONDAY MORNING.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES OF ESPECIALLY TINIAN AND SAIPAN AS CHAN-HOM APPROACHES.

...INLAND FLOODING...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. BRIEF FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 3 PM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032201
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS
CENTERED NEAR 06N119W HAS BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED. THE LOW
FORMED ALONG A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IN A LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED NE OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IN THE
CONTINUOUS OUTFLOW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
IS SOMEWHAT EXPOSED CURRENTLY WITH WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR...BUT
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW
MOVES SLOWLY W-NW.

A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N138W MOVING SLOWLY NW. AN 18
UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED FRESH WINDS N THE E AND NW QUADRANTS OF
THE LOW PRES. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120
NM IN THE SE QUADRANT OF THE CENTER AS WELL. WHILE CONVECTION IS
NOT EXTENSIVE...THE LOW IS IN AN AREA OF LOW ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
AND CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
DRIFT SLOWLY NW.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W/93W N OF 10N MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W/109W FROM 08N TO 14N MOVING W AT 10 TO
15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB GLOBAL MODEL
INDICATED TROUGHING AND AN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM
BETWEEN 104W AND 109W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N
TO 09N BETWEEN 103W AND 108W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 05N80W TO 07N90W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N90W TO 09N115W...AND FROM LOW PRES NEAR
06N119W 1008 MB TO 09N130W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 80W AND 85W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150
NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN 95W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 270 NM NW SEMICIRCLE.

...DISCUSSION...
N OF 15N E OF 120W...A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS IN
PLACE BETWEEN 1005 MB LOW PRES IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AND WEAK 1017 MB HIGH PRES W OF THE AREA IS ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA EUGENIA. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS...AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 8 FT. FARTHER SOUTH...A SMALL UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 13N98W IS SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO ITS SOUTH FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 97W AND 103W.
AN EARILER PULSE OF STRONG GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC HAS DIMINISHED AS NOTED IN A RECENT SHIP
OBSERVATIONS. RECENT SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATE
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT OVER OPEN WATERS
ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AND OTHER AREAS ALONG THE NICARGAGUAN COAST. THE MAIN
PULSES ARE OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...WITH A PLUME OF FRESH SWELL TO
8 FT PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST AS 92W DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL START TO ABATE BY 48 HOURS. FRESH GAP
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA AS WELL OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 90W AND 100W...ENHANCED BY GAP
WIND CONVERGENCE TO SOME EXTENT. STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE
ITCZ NEAR 105W/106W IS ENHANCED TO SOME EXTENT BY A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT AS NOTED ABOVE WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRES
AREAS...THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE WILL BE A WEAK SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE N OF 20N...SUPPORTING WEAK MODEST TRADE WINDS OUTSIDE OF
AREAS NEAR THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES AREAS.
$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
WTPQ33 PGUM 032146
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
800 AM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANGKA PASSING NEAR WOTJE...

CHANGES THIS WARNING
--------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR UTIRIK AND WOTJE
ATOLLS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK...KWAJALEIN
AND UJAE ATOLLS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.5N 169.7E

ABOUT   35 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF WOTJE
ABOUT  120 MILES SOUTH OF UTIRIK
ABOUT  195 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT  140 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN
ABOUT  290 MILES EAST OF UJAE
ABOUT  515 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT 1710 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANGKA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 169.7
DEGREES EAST. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH.
NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
HEADING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANGKA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT
200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 032145
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 AM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM SLOWLY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 148.7E

ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 290 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND
ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST...345 DEGREES AT 5 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.7
DEGREES EAST. THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT
5 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY...AND PASS THROUGH THE MARIANAS NEAR SAIPAN SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER...PRIMARILY IN THE
SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO RESUME INTENSIFYING
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 200 PM
THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

M. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 032145
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 AM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM SLOWLY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 148.7E

ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 290 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND
ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST...345 DEGREES AT 5 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.7
DEGREES EAST. THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT
5 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY...AND PASS THROUGH THE MARIANAS NEAR SAIPAN SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER...PRIMARILY IN THE
SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO RESUME INTENSIFYING
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 200 PM
THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 031909
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
500 AM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W PASSING NEAR WOTJE...

CHANGES THIS WARNING
--------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR UTIRIK AND WOTJE
ATOLLS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73
MPH...ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK...KWAJALEIN
AND UJAE ATOLLS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.6N 170.5E

ABOUT   25 MILES NORTHEAST OF WOTJE
ABOUT  120 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF UTIRIK
ABOUT  180 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT  195 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN
ABOUT  340 MILES EAST OF UJAE
ABOUT  565 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT 1760 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 170.5
DEGREES EAST. THE CENTER OF 11W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG A WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWEST HEADING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION
11W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
AT 1100 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 031909
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
500 AM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM SLOWLY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 148.7E

ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND
ABOUT 320 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST...335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.7
DEGREES EAST. THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT
5 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY...AND PASS THROUGH THE MARIANAS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER...PRIMARILY IN THE
SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO RESUME INTENSIFYING
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
AT 1100 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 031909
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
500 AM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM SLOWLY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 148.7E

ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND
ABOUT 320 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST...335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.7
DEGREES EAST. THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT
5 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY...AND PASS THROUGH THE MARIANAS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER...PRIMARILY IN THE
SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO RESUME INTENSIFYING
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
AT 1100 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ81 PGUM 031827
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
427 AM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...GUAM...
ROTA...TINIAN...SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3N...LONGITUDE 148.8E. THIS WAS ABOUT
310 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. STORM MOTION WAS NORTHEAST.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 50 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH THEN NORTHWEST
LATER TODAY. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO RESUME INTENSIFYING
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE TO PUT YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN INTO ACTION. MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS...AS WELL AS
FUEL FOR VEHICLES AND GENERATORS. BEGIN PREPARING YOUR PROPERTY
FOR TYPHOON CONDITIONS..POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM NEAR TINIAN AND
SAIPAN SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TIMING
AND THE FORECAST TRACK...AND TYPHOON CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ON ANY
OF THE ISLANDS.

FOR MARINERS...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS
TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. BECAUSE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN
FORECAST TRACK ARE EXPECTED...LISTEN FOR UPDATED FORECAST
INFORMATION.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 9 AM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-040500-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
427 AM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
BY SUNDAY...WITH TYPHOON FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
ESPECIALLY NEAR TINIAN AND SAIPAN. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
LATE MONDAY MORNING.

SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET TODAY WILL BUILD AS CHAN-HOM NEARS AND
COULD REACH UP TO 20 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT NEAR THE CENTER.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 12 FEET TODAY MAY BUILD TO DANGEROUS
LEVELS OF 17 TO 22 FEET SUNDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS TINIAN
AND SAIPAN. DANGEROUS SURF WILL SUBSIDE BY MONDAY MORNING.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES OF ESPECIALLY TINIAN AND SAIPAN AS CHAN-HOM APPROACHES.

...INLAND FLOODING...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WHICH CAN CAUSE BRIEF FLASH FLOODING.

$$

ZIOBRO


000
WTPQ81 PGUM 031827
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
427 AM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...GUAM...
ROTA...TINIAN...SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3N...LONGITUDE 148.8E. THIS WAS ABOUT
310 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. STORM MOTION WAS NORTHEAST.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 50 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH THEN NORTHWEST
LATER TODAY. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO RESUME INTENSIFYING
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE TO PUT YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN INTO ACTION. MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS...AS WELL AS
FUEL FOR VEHICLES AND GENERATORS. BEGIN PREPARING YOUR PROPERTY
FOR TYPHOON CONDITIONS..POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM NEAR TINIAN AND
SAIPAN SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TIMING
AND THE FORECAST TRACK...AND TYPHOON CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ON ANY
OF THE ISLANDS.

FOR MARINERS...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS
TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. BECAUSE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN
FORECAST TRACK ARE EXPECTED...LISTEN FOR UPDATED FORECAST
INFORMATION.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 9 AM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-040500-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
427 AM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
BY SUNDAY...WITH TYPHOON FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
ESPECIALLY NEAR TINIAN AND SAIPAN. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
LATE MONDAY MORNING.

SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET TODAY WILL BUILD AS CHAN-HOM NEARS AND
COULD REACH UP TO 20 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT NEAR THE CENTER.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 12 FEET TODAY MAY BUILD TO DANGEROUS
LEVELS OF 17 TO 22 FEET SUNDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS TINIAN
AND SAIPAN. DANGEROUS SURF WILL SUBSIDE BY MONDAY MORNING.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES OF ESPECIALLY TINIAN AND SAIPAN AS CHAN-HOM APPROACHES.

...INLAND FLOODING...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WHICH CAN CAUSE BRIEF FLASH FLOODING.

$$

ZIOBRO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 031800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUES ALONG COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING FROM
12 TO 16 FT. GALE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 23W
FROM 05N TO 16N...MOVING W AT 10 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW TO MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...THE METEOSAT SAL TRACKING...PSEUDO-NATURAL AND DUST
IMAGERY SHOW THAT SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS OVER THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...THUS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 39W
...MOVING W AT 5 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. SIMILAR TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
WAVE...METEOSAT SAL TRACKING...PSEUDO-NATURAL AND DUST IMAGERY
SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST OVER THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH
IS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 66W
...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW AND METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY
SHOW THE WAVE IS MAINLY EMBEDDED IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR HINDERS CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 10N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N26W AND
CONTINUES TO 07N36W...RESUMING W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 06N41W TO
NORTHERN COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 02N50W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 06N TO 14N E OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

N-NE WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NEW
MEXICO COVERS THE NW GULF AND THE FAR SW BASIN. AN ELONGATED
UPPER LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND PROVIDES A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SW GULF THAT ALONG WITH MOISTURE INFLOW
FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORT A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS
S OF 24N W OF 94W. A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW BASIN SUPPORT
A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N90W TO 18N93W LACKING CONVECTION.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER COASTAL WATERS OF THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
ALONG THE EASTERN PENINSULA TO NICARAGUA EPAC COASTAL WATERS.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE SE GULF FROM 24N-26N E
OF 87W. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ACROSS THE ATLC OCEAN
CONTINUE TO EXTENDS AN AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
GREAT PORTIONS OF THE GULF. SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT IS OVER
THE W AND SE GULF WHILE VARIABLE LIGHT WIND PERSISTS OVER THE NE
BASIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS
THE BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS AND ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED INLAND CENTRAL
AMERICA...BUT ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 45 NM OFF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE AND
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 66W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THIS
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT S OF 15N THAT
ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE SE BASIN...INCLUDING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PUERTO RICO
AND ADJACENT WATERS. METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR
OVER THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT AS WELL AS AHEAD OF THE WAVE
EXTENDING W TO 86W...INCLUDING HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. ASIDE THE
GALE...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN
69W AND 82W ASSOCIATED WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 13 FT. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN MONDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND...THUS HINDERING CONVECTION BUT SUPPORTING HAZY
CONDITIONS. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON WHEN
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT
SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS BEING GENERATED BY THE LOW OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS UPPER FEATURE
FAVORS LIFTING OF MOIST AIR ADVECTED FROM THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N W OF 77W. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN N OF 18N. A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
30N56W TO 26N53W THAT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FARTHER E FROM 27N43W
TO 23N43W DEVOID OF CONVECTION. RIDGING WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE
ACROSS THE BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 031800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUES ALONG COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING FROM
12 TO 16 FT. GALE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 23W
FROM 05N TO 16N...MOVING W AT 10 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW TO MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...THE METEOSAT SAL TRACKING...PSEUDO-NATURAL AND DUST
IMAGERY SHOW THAT SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS OVER THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...THUS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 39W
...MOVING W AT 5 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. SIMILAR TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
WAVE...METEOSAT SAL TRACKING...PSEUDO-NATURAL AND DUST IMAGERY
SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST OVER THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH
IS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 66W
...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW AND METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY
SHOW THE WAVE IS MAINLY EMBEDDED IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR HINDERS CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 10N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N26W AND
CONTINUES TO 07N36W...RESUMING W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 06N41W TO
NORTHERN COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 02N50W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 06N TO 14N E OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

N-NE WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NEW
MEXICO COVERS THE NW GULF AND THE FAR SW BASIN. AN ELONGATED
UPPER LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND PROVIDES A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SW GULF THAT ALONG WITH MOISTURE INFLOW
FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORT A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS
S OF 24N W OF 94W. A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW BASIN SUPPORT
A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N90W TO 18N93W LACKING CONVECTION.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER COASTAL WATERS OF THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
ALONG THE EASTERN PENINSULA TO NICARAGUA EPAC COASTAL WATERS.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE SE GULF FROM 24N-26N E
OF 87W. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ACROSS THE ATLC OCEAN
CONTINUE TO EXTENDS AN AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
GREAT PORTIONS OF THE GULF. SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT IS OVER
THE W AND SE GULF WHILE VARIABLE LIGHT WIND PERSISTS OVER THE NE
BASIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS
THE BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS AND ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED INLAND CENTRAL
AMERICA...BUT ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 45 NM OFF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE AND
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 66W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THIS
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT S OF 15N THAT
ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE SE BASIN...INCLUDING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PUERTO RICO
AND ADJACENT WATERS. METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR
OVER THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT AS WELL AS AHEAD OF THE WAVE
EXTENDING W TO 86W...INCLUDING HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. ASIDE THE
GALE...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN
69W AND 82W ASSOCIATED WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 13 FT. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN MONDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND...THUS HINDERING CONVECTION BUT SUPPORTING HAZY
CONDITIONS. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON WHEN
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT
SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS BEING GENERATED BY THE LOW OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS UPPER FEATURE
FAVORS LIFTING OF MOIST AIR ADVECTED FROM THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N W OF 77W. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN N OF 18N. A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
30N56W TO 26N53W THAT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FARTHER E FROM 27N43W
TO 23N43W DEVOID OF CONVECTION. RIDGING WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE
ACROSS THE BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 031800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUES ALONG COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING FROM
12 TO 16 FT. GALE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 23W
FROM 05N TO 16N...MOVING W AT 10 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW TO MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...THE METEOSAT SAL TRACKING...PSEUDO-NATURAL AND DUST
IMAGERY SHOW THAT SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS OVER THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...THUS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 39W
...MOVING W AT 5 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. SIMILAR TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
WAVE...METEOSAT SAL TRACKING...PSEUDO-NATURAL AND DUST IMAGERY
SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST OVER THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH
IS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 66W
...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW AND METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY
SHOW THE WAVE IS MAINLY EMBEDDED IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR HINDERS CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 10N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N26W AND
CONTINUES TO 07N36W...RESUMING W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 06N41W TO
NORTHERN COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 02N50W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 06N TO 14N E OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

N-NE WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NEW
MEXICO COVERS THE NW GULF AND THE FAR SW BASIN. AN ELONGATED
UPPER LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND PROVIDES A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SW GULF THAT ALONG WITH MOISTURE INFLOW
FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORT A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS
S OF 24N W OF 94W. A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW BASIN SUPPORT
A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N90W TO 18N93W LACKING CONVECTION.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER COASTAL WATERS OF THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
ALONG THE EASTERN PENINSULA TO NICARAGUA EPAC COASTAL WATERS.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE SE GULF FROM 24N-26N E
OF 87W. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ACROSS THE ATLC OCEAN
CONTINUE TO EXTENDS AN AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
GREAT PORTIONS OF THE GULF. SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT IS OVER
THE W AND SE GULF WHILE VARIABLE LIGHT WIND PERSISTS OVER THE NE
BASIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS
THE BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS AND ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED INLAND CENTRAL
AMERICA...BUT ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 45 NM OFF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE AND
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 66W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THIS
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT S OF 15N THAT
ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE SE BASIN...INCLUDING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PUERTO RICO
AND ADJACENT WATERS. METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR
OVER THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT AS WELL AS AHEAD OF THE WAVE
EXTENDING W TO 86W...INCLUDING HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. ASIDE THE
GALE...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN
69W AND 82W ASSOCIATED WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 13 FT. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN MONDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND...THUS HINDERING CONVECTION BUT SUPPORTING HAZY
CONDITIONS. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON WHEN
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT
SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS BEING GENERATED BY THE LOW OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS UPPER FEATURE
FAVORS LIFTING OF MOIST AIR ADVECTED FROM THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N W OF 77W. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN N OF 18N. A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
30N56W TO 26N53W THAT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FARTHER E FROM 27N43W
TO 23N43W DEVOID OF CONVECTION. RIDGING WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE
ACROSS THE BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 031800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUES ALONG COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING FROM
12 TO 16 FT. GALE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 23W
FROM 05N TO 16N...MOVING W AT 10 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW TO MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...THE METEOSAT SAL TRACKING...PSEUDO-NATURAL AND DUST
IMAGERY SHOW THAT SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS OVER THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...THUS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 39W
...MOVING W AT 5 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. SIMILAR TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
WAVE...METEOSAT SAL TRACKING...PSEUDO-NATURAL AND DUST IMAGERY
SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST OVER THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH
IS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 66W
...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW AND METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY
SHOW THE WAVE IS MAINLY EMBEDDED IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR HINDERS CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 10N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N26W AND
CONTINUES TO 07N36W...RESUMING W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 06N41W TO
NORTHERN COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 02N50W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 06N TO 14N E OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

N-NE WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NEW
MEXICO COVERS THE NW GULF AND THE FAR SW BASIN. AN ELONGATED
UPPER LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND PROVIDES A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SW GULF THAT ALONG WITH MOISTURE INFLOW
FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORT A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS
S OF 24N W OF 94W. A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW BASIN SUPPORT
A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N90W TO 18N93W LACKING CONVECTION.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER COASTAL WATERS OF THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
ALONG THE EASTERN PENINSULA TO NICARAGUA EPAC COASTAL WATERS.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE SE GULF FROM 24N-26N E
OF 87W. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ACROSS THE ATLC OCEAN
CONTINUE TO EXTENDS AN AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
GREAT PORTIONS OF THE GULF. SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT IS OVER
THE W AND SE GULF WHILE VARIABLE LIGHT WIND PERSISTS OVER THE NE
BASIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS
THE BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS AND ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED INLAND CENTRAL
AMERICA...BUT ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 45 NM OFF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE AND
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 66W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THIS
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT S OF 15N THAT
ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE SE BASIN...INCLUDING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PUERTO RICO
AND ADJACENT WATERS. METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR
OVER THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT AS WELL AS AHEAD OF THE WAVE
EXTENDING W TO 86W...INCLUDING HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. ASIDE THE
GALE...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN
69W AND 82W ASSOCIATED WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 13 FT. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN MONDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND...THUS HINDERING CONVECTION BUT SUPPORTING HAZY
CONDITIONS. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON WHEN
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT
SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS BEING GENERATED BY THE LOW OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS UPPER FEATURE
FAVORS LIFTING OF MOIST AIR ADVECTED FROM THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N W OF 77W. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN N OF 18N. A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
30N56W TO 26N53W THAT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FARTHER E FROM 27N43W
TO 23N43W DEVOID OF CONVECTION. RIDGING WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE
ACROSS THE BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031753
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a small low pressure area located about 1300 miles east-southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions are conducive for
some development over the next couple of days before upper-level
winds become unfavorable early next week.  The low is expected to
move slowly to the west-northwest or northwest for the next several
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

A large area of showers and thunderstorms centered about 1300 miles
south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas Mexico is associated with a
tropical wave.  Upper-level conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early
next week while the system moves to the west-northwest at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031753
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a small low pressure area located about 1300 miles east-southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions are conducive for
some development over the next couple of days before upper-level
winds become unfavorable early next week.  The low is expected to
move slowly to the west-northwest or northwest for the next several
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

A large area of showers and thunderstorms centered about 1300 miles
south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas Mexico is associated with a
tropical wave.  Upper-level conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early
next week while the system moves to the west-northwest at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031753
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a small low pressure area located about 1300 miles east-southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions are conducive for
some development over the next couple of days before upper-level
winds become unfavorable early next week.  The low is expected to
move slowly to the west-northwest or northwest for the next several
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

A large area of showers and thunderstorms centered about 1300 miles
south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas Mexico is associated with a
tropical wave.  Upper-level conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early
next week while the system moves to the west-northwest at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031753
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a small low pressure area located about 1300 miles east-southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions are conducive for
some development over the next couple of days before upper-level
winds become unfavorable early next week.  The low is expected to
move slowly to the west-northwest or northwest for the next several
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

A large area of showers and thunderstorms centered about 1300 miles
south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas Mexico is associated with a
tropical wave.  Upper-level conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early
next week while the system moves to the west-northwest at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABNT20 KNHC 031749
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven




000
ABNT20 KNHC 031749
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ACPN50 PHFO 031748
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST FRI JUL 3 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED MORE THAN 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII. SURFACE AND UPPER AIR CONDITIONS NEAR THE FEATURE
MAY ALLOW SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT EVENTUALLY
HEADS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...40 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

KINEL




000
WTPQ31 PGUM 031537
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 148.8E

ABOUT 310 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST...045 DEGREES AT 5 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.8
DEGREES EAST. THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH THEN NORTHWEST
LATER TODAY...AND PASS THROUGH THE MARIANAS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER...PRIMARILY IN THE
SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO RESUME INTENSIFYING
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT
800 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 031537
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 148.8E

ABOUT 310 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST...045 DEGREES AT 5 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.8
DEGREES EAST. THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH THEN NORTHWEST
LATER TODAY...AND PASS THROUGH THE MARIANAS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER...PRIMARILY IN THE
SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO RESUME INTENSIFYING
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT
800 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ33 PGUM 031537
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
200 AM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W FORMS NORTH OF MAJURO...

CHANGES THIS WARNING
--------------------
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR UTIRIK AND WOTJE ATOLLS.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK...KWAJALEIN AND UJAE
ATOLLS.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR UTIRIK AND WOTJE ATOLLS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK...KWAJALEIN AND
UJAE ATOLLS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO
73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.4N 171.4E

ABOUT   80 MILES EAST OF WOTJE
ABOUT  160 MILES NORTH OF MAJURO
ABOUT  165 MILES SOUTHEAST OF UTIRIK
ABOUT  250 MILES EAST OF KWAJALEIN
ABOUT  405 MILES EAST OF UJAE
ABOUT  625 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT 1825 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 171.4
DEGREES EAST. THE CENTER OF 11W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG A WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWEST HEADING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TROPICAL
STORM THIS AFTERNOON.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 AM
LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031525
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N137W MOVING NW AT 5 KT.
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG
TRADES TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER GENERATING
SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT FROM 12N TO 17N W OF 128W. THE LOW IS LOCATED
BENEATH A GENERALLY FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 15N130W TO BEYOND
13N140W. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GRADUAL AND SLOW
DEVELOPMENT TREND DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N TO 20N88W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15
KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N TO 15N106W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED
TROUGHING AND AN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM BETWEEN 104W
AND 109W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 09N
BETWEEN 103W AND 108W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N117W TO 13N117W MOVING W AT 10 TO
15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR
23N120W. CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION BELOW.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N90W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 06N90W TO 08N101W TO 06N117W TO 05N125W TO
08N1310W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 93W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 103W AND 112W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 112W
AND 124W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 114W AND 121W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N125W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO
NEAR 19N110W. A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N137W AND IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 14N  W OF
136W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS PRODUCING FRESH WINDS N AND NE OF
THE LOW CENTER. THE FRESH WINDS ARE HELPING TO GENERATE SEAS TO
8 FT ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 129W AND
132W.

A KELVIN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS HELPED INCREASE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAKING MUCH OF THE ITCZ REGION ACTIVE BETWEEN
93W AND 125W AS NOTED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE. LATEST FORECAST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN ITCZ BREAKDOWN EVENT ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN WATERS DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS RESULTING FROM THE
BREAKDOWN EVENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...CONDITIONS BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS AFTERWARDS.

GAP WINDS...
A TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG WITH
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW IS GENERATING RESIDUAL FRESH TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW N OF 15N BETWEEN 94.5N AND
95.5N FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE EXTENSION OF THE CARIBBEAN LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO EXTEND
INTO THE EAST PACIFIC REGION WITH STRONG GAP WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...PEAKING DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH A MINIMUM IN WIND SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. PULSES OF NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS FAR WEST AS 95W BEFORE DECAYING BELOW 8 FT.

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031525
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N137W MOVING NW AT 5 KT.
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG
TRADES TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER GENERATING
SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT FROM 12N TO 17N W OF 128W. THE LOW IS LOCATED
BENEATH A GENERALLY FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 15N130W TO BEYOND
13N140W. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GRADUAL AND SLOW
DEVELOPMENT TREND DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N TO 20N88W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15
KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N TO 15N106W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED
TROUGHING AND AN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM BETWEEN 104W
AND 109W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 09N
BETWEEN 103W AND 108W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N117W TO 13N117W MOVING W AT 10 TO
15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR
23N120W. CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION BELOW.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N90W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 06N90W TO 08N101W TO 06N117W TO 05N125W TO
08N1310W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 93W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 103W AND 112W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 112W
AND 124W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 114W AND 121W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N125W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO
NEAR 19N110W. A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N137W AND IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 14N  W OF
136W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS PRODUCING FRESH WINDS N AND NE OF
THE LOW CENTER. THE FRESH WINDS ARE HELPING TO GENERATE SEAS TO
8 FT ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 129W AND
132W.

A KELVIN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS HELPED INCREASE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAKING MUCH OF THE ITCZ REGION ACTIVE BETWEEN
93W AND 125W AS NOTED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE. LATEST FORECAST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN ITCZ BREAKDOWN EVENT ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN WATERS DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS RESULTING FROM THE
BREAKDOWN EVENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...CONDITIONS BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS AFTERWARDS.

GAP WINDS...
A TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG WITH
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW IS GENERATING RESIDUAL FRESH TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW N OF 15N BETWEEN 94.5N AND
95.5N FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE EXTENSION OF THE CARIBBEAN LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO EXTEND
INTO THE EAST PACIFIC REGION WITH STRONG GAP WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...PEAKING DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH A MINIMUM IN WIND SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. PULSES OF NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS FAR WEST AS 95W BEFORE DECAYING BELOW 8 FT.

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031525
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N137W MOVING NW AT 5 KT.
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG
TRADES TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER GENERATING
SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT FROM 12N TO 17N W OF 128W. THE LOW IS LOCATED
BENEATH A GENERALLY FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 15N130W TO BEYOND
13N140W. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GRADUAL AND SLOW
DEVELOPMENT TREND DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N TO 20N88W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15
KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N TO 15N106W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED
TROUGHING AND AN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM BETWEEN 104W
AND 109W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 09N
BETWEEN 103W AND 108W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N117W TO 13N117W MOVING W AT 10 TO
15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR
23N120W. CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION BELOW.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N90W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 06N90W TO 08N101W TO 06N117W TO 05N125W TO
08N1310W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 93W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 103W AND 112W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 112W
AND 124W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 114W AND 121W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N125W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO
NEAR 19N110W. A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N137W AND IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 14N  W OF
136W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS PRODUCING FRESH WINDS N AND NE OF
THE LOW CENTER. THE FRESH WINDS ARE HELPING TO GENERATE SEAS TO
8 FT ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 129W AND
132W.

A KELVIN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS HELPED INCREASE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAKING MUCH OF THE ITCZ REGION ACTIVE BETWEEN
93W AND 125W AS NOTED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE. LATEST FORECAST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN ITCZ BREAKDOWN EVENT ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN WATERS DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS RESULTING FROM THE
BREAKDOWN EVENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...CONDITIONS BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS AFTERWARDS.

GAP WINDS...
A TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG WITH
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW IS GENERATING RESIDUAL FRESH TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW N OF 15N BETWEEN 94.5N AND
95.5N FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE EXTENSION OF THE CARIBBEAN LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO EXTEND
INTO THE EAST PACIFIC REGION WITH STRONG GAP WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...PEAKING DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH A MINIMUM IN WIND SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. PULSES OF NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS FAR WEST AS 95W BEFORE DECAYING BELOW 8 FT.

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031525
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N137W MOVING NW AT 5 KT.
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG
TRADES TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER GENERATING
SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT FROM 12N TO 17N W OF 128W. THE LOW IS LOCATED
BENEATH A GENERALLY FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 15N130W TO BEYOND
13N140W. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GRADUAL AND SLOW
DEVELOPMENT TREND DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N TO 20N88W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15
KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N TO 15N106W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED
TROUGHING AND AN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM BETWEEN 104W
AND 109W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 09N
BETWEEN 103W AND 108W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N117W TO 13N117W MOVING W AT 10 TO
15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR
23N120W. CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION BELOW.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N90W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 06N90W TO 08N101W TO 06N117W TO 05N125W TO
08N1310W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 93W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 103W AND 112W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 112W
AND 124W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 114W AND 121W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N125W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO
NEAR 19N110W. A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N137W AND IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 14N  W OF
136W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS PRODUCING FRESH WINDS N AND NE OF
THE LOW CENTER. THE FRESH WINDS ARE HELPING TO GENERATE SEAS TO
8 FT ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 129W AND
132W.

A KELVIN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS HELPED INCREASE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAKING MUCH OF THE ITCZ REGION ACTIVE BETWEEN
93W AND 125W AS NOTED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE. LATEST FORECAST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN ITCZ BREAKDOWN EVENT ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN WATERS DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS RESULTING FROM THE
BREAKDOWN EVENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...CONDITIONS BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS AFTERWARDS.

GAP WINDS...
A TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG WITH
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW IS GENERATING RESIDUAL FRESH TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW N OF 15N BETWEEN 94.5N AND
95.5N FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE EXTENSION OF THE CARIBBEAN LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO EXTEND
INTO THE EAST PACIFIC REGION WITH STRONG GAP WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...PEAKING DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH A MINIMUM IN WIND SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. PULSES OF NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS FAR WEST AS 95W BEFORE DECAYING BELOW 8 FT.

$$
HUFFMAN



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 031254
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 PM CHST FRI JUL 3 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 148.9E

ABOUT 325 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 330 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 355 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST...075 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.9
DEGREES EAST. THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 9
MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH THEN NORTHWEST
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH THE MARIANAS SUNDAY
EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER...PRIMARILY IN
THE SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO RESUME INTENSIFYING
LATER TONIGHT. CHAN-HOM COULD BECOME A TYPHOON AGAIN SUNDAY AS IT
PASSES THROUGH THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 031254
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 PM CHST FRI JUL 3 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 148.9E

ABOUT 325 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 330 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 355 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST...075 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.9
DEGREES EAST. THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 9
MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH THEN NORTHWEST
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH THE MARIANAS SUNDAY
EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER...PRIMARILY IN
THE SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO RESUME INTENSIFYING
LATER TONIGHT. CHAN-HOM COULD BECOME A TYPHOON AGAIN SUNDAY AS IT
PASSES THROUGH THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
ACPN50 PHFO 031202 CCA
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST FRI JUL 3 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE DURING ITS
SLOW PROGRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...30 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

$$

GIBBS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 031202 CCA
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST FRI JUL 3 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE DURING ITS
SLOW PROGRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...30 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

$$

GIBBS







000
ACPN50 PHFO 031202 CCA
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST FRI JUL 3 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE DURING ITS
SLOW PROGRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...30 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

$$

GIBBS







000
ACPN50 PHFO 031202 CCA
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST FRI JUL 3 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE DURING ITS
SLOW PROGRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...30 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

$$

GIBBS







000
ACPN50 PHFO 031202 CCA
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST FRI JUL 3 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE DURING ITS
SLOW PROGRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...30 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

$$

GIBBS







000
ACPN50 PHFO 031202 CCA
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST FRI JUL 3 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE DURING ITS
SLOW PROGRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...30 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

$$

GIBBS







000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031156
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

Corrected for first paragraph

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased near a broad low pressure
area located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
gradual development over the next couple of days before upper-level
winds become unfavorable early next week.  The low is expected to
move slowly to the west-northwest or northwest for the next several
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
about 1200 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas Mexico is
associated with a tropical wave.  Upper-level conditions are
forecast to become conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form early next week while it moves to the
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ACPN50 PHFO 031156
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST FRI JUL 3 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE DURING ITS
SLOW PROGRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...30 PERCENT

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

$$

GIBBS





000
ACPN50 PHFO 031156
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST FRI JUL 3 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE DURING ITS
SLOW PROGRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...30 PERCENT

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

$$

GIBBS






000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031146
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased near a broad low pressure
located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.
Environmental conditions are forecast to conducive for gradual
development over the next couple of days before upper-level winds
become unfavorable early next week.  The low is expected to move
slowly to west-northwest or northwest for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
about 1200 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas Mexico is
associated with a tropical wave.  Upper-level conditions are
forecast to become conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form early next week while it moves to the
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031146
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased near a broad low pressure
located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.
Environmental conditions are forecast to conducive for gradual
development over the next couple of days before upper-level winds
become unfavorable early next week.  The low is expected to move
slowly to west-northwest or northwest for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
about 1200 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas Mexico is
associated with a tropical wave.  Upper-level conditions are
forecast to become conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form early next week while it moves to the
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031146
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased near a broad low pressure
located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.
Environmental conditions are forecast to conducive for gradual
development over the next couple of days before upper-level winds
become unfavorable early next week.  The low is expected to move
slowly to west-northwest or northwest for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
about 1200 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas Mexico is
associated with a tropical wave.  Upper-level conditions are
forecast to become conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form early next week while it moves to the
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031146
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased near a broad low pressure
located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.
Environmental conditions are forecast to conducive for gradual
development over the next couple of days before upper-level winds
become unfavorable early next week.  The low is expected to move
slowly to west-northwest or northwest for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
about 1200 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas Mexico is
associated with a tropical wave.  Upper-level conditions are
forecast to become conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form early next week while it moves to the
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031146
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased near a broad low pressure
located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.
Environmental conditions are forecast to conducive for gradual
development over the next couple of days before upper-level winds
become unfavorable early next week.  The low is expected to move
slowly to west-northwest or northwest for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
about 1200 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas Mexico is
associated with a tropical wave.  Upper-level conditions are
forecast to become conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form early next week while it moves to the
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031146
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased near a broad low pressure
located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.
Environmental conditions are forecast to conducive for gradual
development over the next couple of days before upper-level winds
become unfavorable early next week.  The low is expected to move
slowly to west-northwest or northwest for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
about 1200 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas Mexico is
associated with a tropical wave.  Upper-level conditions are
forecast to become conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form early next week while it moves to the
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 031116
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT VIERNES 3 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 031116
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT VIERNES 3 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 031116
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT VIERNES 3 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 031116
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT VIERNES 3 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE



000
ABNT20 KNHC 031114
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ABNT20 KNHC 031114
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ABNT20 KNHC 031114
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ABNT20 KNHC 031114
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
AXNT20 KNHC 031053
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT CURRENTLY FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN
74W AND 77W...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA. THE GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST UNTIL THE 48-HOUR TIME PERIOD IN THE 03/0600
UTC FORECAST. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET
TO 15 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23
KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN
17W AND 26W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RE-POSITIONED IN ORDER
TO BE ALONG 39W/40W BASED ON LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND
50W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE FROM 11N TO
18N BETWEEN 58W AND 70W.

ONE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W FROM
19N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE WAVE IS INLAND...PASSING THROUGH EASTERN HONDURAS...
NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN PART OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE.

A SECOND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND...ALONG
90W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
GUATEMALA...AND BEYOND EL SALVADOR INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SPANS THE NORTHERNMOST PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...FROM 20N
NORTHWARD.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N24W TO
7N30W AND 7N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 12N
BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA TO A 22N91W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THAT IS JUST
OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY REMNANT RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA
FROM CENTRAL GUATEMALA TO 23N BETWEEN 86W AND 93W. ISOLATED
MODERATE AROUND LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD OF CUBA...AND IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TOWARD AND BEYOND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL HISPANIOLA...TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W.

EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...SPANS MUCH OF THE
ENTIRE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...MORE PROMINENTLY...FROM 10N
TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND FROM 16N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W
AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA...SOUTHWESTWARD...
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM A 26N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL CHANGE TO SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY AND FINALLY
TO WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE LAST FEW 6-HOUR TIME
INTERVALS OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GIVING EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...GIVING
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...EVENTUALLY
SETTLING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO
30N67W...TO A 26N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 28N44W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 22N TO 31N
BETWEEN 38W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO
30N30W...TO A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
34N48W...31N62W...BEYOND CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 031053
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT CURRENTLY FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN
74W AND 77W...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA. THE GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST UNTIL THE 48-HOUR TIME PERIOD IN THE 03/0600
UTC FORECAST. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET
TO 15 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23
KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN
17W AND 26W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RE-POSITIONED IN ORDER
TO BE ALONG 39W/40W BASED ON LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND
50W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE FROM 11N TO
18N BETWEEN 58W AND 70W.

ONE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W FROM
19N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE WAVE IS INLAND...PASSING THROUGH EASTERN HONDURAS...
NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN PART OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE.

A SECOND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND...ALONG
90W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
GUATEMALA...AND BEYOND EL SALVADOR INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SPANS THE NORTHERNMOST PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...FROM 20N
NORTHWARD.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N24W TO
7N30W AND 7N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 12N
BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA TO A 22N91W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THAT IS JUST
OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY REMNANT RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA
FROM CENTRAL GUATEMALA TO 23N BETWEEN 86W AND 93W. ISOLATED
MODERATE AROUND LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD OF CUBA...AND IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TOWARD AND BEYOND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL HISPANIOLA...TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W.

EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...SPANS MUCH OF THE
ENTIRE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...MORE PROMINENTLY...FROM 10N
TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND FROM 16N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W
AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA...SOUTHWESTWARD...
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM A 26N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL CHANGE TO SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY AND FINALLY
TO WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE LAST FEW 6-HOUR TIME
INTERVALS OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GIVING EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...GIVING
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...EVENTUALLY
SETTLING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO
30N67W...TO A 26N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 28N44W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 22N TO 31N
BETWEEN 38W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO
30N30W...TO A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
34N48W...31N62W...BEYOND CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 031053
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT CURRENTLY FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN
74W AND 77W...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA. THE GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST UNTIL THE 48-HOUR TIME PERIOD IN THE 03/0600
UTC FORECAST. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET
TO 15 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23
KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN
17W AND 26W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RE-POSITIONED IN ORDER
TO BE ALONG 39W/40W BASED ON LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND
50W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE FROM 11N TO
18N BETWEEN 58W AND 70W.

ONE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W FROM
19N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE WAVE IS INLAND...PASSING THROUGH EASTERN HONDURAS...
NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN PART OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE.

A SECOND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND...ALONG
90W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
GUATEMALA...AND BEYOND EL SALVADOR INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SPANS THE NORTHERNMOST PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...FROM 20N
NORTHWARD.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N24W TO
7N30W AND 7N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 12N
BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA TO A 22N91W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THAT IS JUST
OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY REMNANT RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA
FROM CENTRAL GUATEMALA TO 23N BETWEEN 86W AND 93W. ISOLATED
MODERATE AROUND LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD OF CUBA...AND IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TOWARD AND BEYOND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL HISPANIOLA...TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W.

EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...SPANS MUCH OF THE
ENTIRE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...MORE PROMINENTLY...FROM 10N
TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND FROM 16N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W
AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA...SOUTHWESTWARD...
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM A 26N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL CHANGE TO SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY AND FINALLY
TO WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE LAST FEW 6-HOUR TIME
INTERVALS OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GIVING EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...GIVING
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...EVENTUALLY
SETTLING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO
30N67W...TO A 26N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 28N44W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 22N TO 31N
BETWEEN 38W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO
30N30W...TO A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
34N48W...31N62W...BEYOND CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 031053
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT CURRENTLY FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN
74W AND 77W...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA. THE GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST UNTIL THE 48-HOUR TIME PERIOD IN THE 03/0600
UTC FORECAST. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET
TO 15 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23
KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN
17W AND 26W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RE-POSITIONED IN ORDER
TO BE ALONG 39W/40W BASED ON LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND
50W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE FROM 11N TO
18N BETWEEN 58W AND 70W.

ONE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W FROM
19N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE WAVE IS INLAND...PASSING THROUGH EASTERN HONDURAS...
NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN PART OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE.

A SECOND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND...ALONG
90W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
GUATEMALA...AND BEYOND EL SALVADOR INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SPANS THE NORTHERNMOST PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...FROM 20N
NORTHWARD.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N24W TO
7N30W AND 7N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 12N
BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA TO A 22N91W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THAT IS JUST
OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY REMNANT RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA
FROM CENTRAL GUATEMALA TO 23N BETWEEN 86W AND 93W. ISOLATED
MODERATE AROUND LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD OF CUBA...AND IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TOWARD AND BEYOND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL HISPANIOLA...TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W.

EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...SPANS MUCH OF THE
ENTIRE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...MORE PROMINENTLY...FROM 10N
TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND FROM 16N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W
AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA...SOUTHWESTWARD...
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM A 26N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL CHANGE TO SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY AND FINALLY
TO WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE LAST FEW 6-HOUR TIME
INTERVALS OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GIVING EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...GIVING
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...EVENTUALLY
SETTLING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO
30N67W...TO A 26N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 28N44W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 22N TO 31N
BETWEEN 38W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO
30N30W...TO A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
34N48W...31N62W...BEYOND CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 031005
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT VIERNES 3 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 031005
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT VIERNES 3 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 030919
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 PM CHST FRI JUL 3 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM DRIFTING NORTHWARD...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 148.5E

ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 315 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST...035 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.5
DEGREES EAST. THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 8
MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH THE MARIANAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND HAS DECREASED TO 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER...PRIMARILY IN
THE SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE. FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE RESUMING A SLOW INTENSIFICATION TREND LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY
MORNING. CHAN-HOM COULD BECOME A TYPHOON AGAIN SUNDAY AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 AM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 030919
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 PM CHST FRI JUL 3 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM DRIFTING NORTHWARD...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 148.5E

ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 315 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST...035 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.5
DEGREES EAST. THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 8
MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH THE MARIANAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND HAS DECREASED TO 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER...PRIMARILY IN
THE SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE. FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE RESUMING A SLOW INTENSIFICATION TREND LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY
MORNING. CHAN-HOM COULD BECOME A TYPHOON AGAIN SUNDAY AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 AM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030917
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS NEAR 91W N OF 08N. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS NEAR 104W FROM 05N TO 14N. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 100W AND 107W.

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS NEAR 113W FROM 06N TO 15N. CONVECTION
DESCRIBED IN ITCZ SECTION BELOW.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N86W TO 07N90W WHERE
LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO
07N103W. THE ITCZ THEN RESUMES FROM 07N105W TO 07N111W. THE ITCZ
THEN RESUMES FROM 06N114W TO 05N122W TO 07N130W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM S OF
ITCZ BETWEEN 93W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 97W AND 100W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 04N
TO 08N BETWEEN 112W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1018 MB CENTERED NEAR 28N123W EXTENDS A
RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N109W. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 11N135.5W
HAS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 130W
AND 140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS PRODUCING FRESH WINDS N
OF THE LOW CENTER. THE FRESH WINDS ARE HELPING TO GENERATE SEAS
TO 8 FT OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW.

A KELVIN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS HELPED INCREASE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO MAKE MUCH OF THE ITCZ ACTIVE BETWEEN 93W
AND 122W AS NOTED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE. LATEST FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN ITCZ BREAKDOWN EVENT OVER THE FAR WESTERN
WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS RESULTING FROM THE BREAKDOWN EVENT OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...CONDITIONS BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR CYCLOGENESIS AFTERWARDS.

GAP WINDS

A TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG WITH
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW HAS HELPED FOR GAP WINDS IN THE 20 KT
RANGE WITH WINDS LOCALLY TO 25 KT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW
25 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE EXTENSION OF THE CARIBBEAN LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO EXTEND
INTO THE EPAC WITH STRONG GAP WIND FLOW OVER THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO NOTED. WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...PEAKING DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH A MINIMUM IN WIND SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. PULSES OF NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS FAR WEST AS 95W BEFORE DECAYING BELOW 8 FT.

$$
AL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030917
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS NEAR 91W N OF 08N. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS NEAR 104W FROM 05N TO 14N. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 100W AND 107W.

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS NEAR 113W FROM 06N TO 15N. CONVECTION
DESCRIBED IN ITCZ SECTION BELOW.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N86W TO 07N90W WHERE
LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO
07N103W. THE ITCZ THEN RESUMES FROM 07N105W TO 07N111W. THE ITCZ
THEN RESUMES FROM 06N114W TO 05N122W TO 07N130W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM S OF
ITCZ BETWEEN 93W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 97W AND 100W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 04N
TO 08N BETWEEN 112W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1018 MB CENTERED NEAR 28N123W EXTENDS A
RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N109W. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 11N135.5W
HAS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 130W
AND 140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS PRODUCING FRESH WINDS N
OF THE LOW CENTER. THE FRESH WINDS ARE HELPING TO GENERATE SEAS
TO 8 FT OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW.

A KELVIN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS HELPED INCREASE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO MAKE MUCH OF THE ITCZ ACTIVE BETWEEN 93W
AND 122W AS NOTED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE. LATEST FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN ITCZ BREAKDOWN EVENT OVER THE FAR WESTERN
WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS RESULTING FROM THE BREAKDOWN EVENT OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...CONDITIONS BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR CYCLOGENESIS AFTERWARDS.

GAP WINDS

A TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG WITH
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW HAS HELPED FOR GAP WINDS IN THE 20 KT
RANGE WITH WINDS LOCALLY TO 25 KT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW
25 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE EXTENSION OF THE CARIBBEAN LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO EXTEND
INTO THE EPAC WITH STRONG GAP WIND FLOW OVER THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO NOTED. WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...PEAKING DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH A MINIMUM IN WIND SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. PULSES OF NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS FAR WEST AS 95W BEFORE DECAYING BELOW 8 FT.

$$
AL


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 030657
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
500 PM CHST FRI JUL 3 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM DRIFTING NORTHWARD...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 148.5E

ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 315 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHEAST...030 DEGREES AT 5 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.5
DEGREES EAST. THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 5
MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING AGAIN TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING CHAN-HOM THROUGH THE
MARIANAS SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND HAS DECREASED TO 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER...PRIMARILY
IN THE SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE. TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO
INTENSIFY AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON AGAIN
LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
AT 1100 PM LATER TONIGHT.

$$

EDSON



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 030657
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
500 PM CHST FRI JUL 3 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM DRIFTING NORTHWARD...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 148.5E

ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 315 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHEAST...030 DEGREES AT 5 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.5
DEGREES EAST. THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 5
MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING AGAIN TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING CHAN-HOM THROUGH THE
MARIANAS SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND HAS DECREASED TO 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER...PRIMARILY
IN THE SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE. TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO
INTENSIFY AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON AGAIN
LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
AT 1100 PM LATER TONIGHT.

$$

EDSON



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 030657
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
500 PM CHST FRI JUL 3 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM DRIFTING NORTHWARD...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 148.5E

ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 315 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHEAST...030 DEGREES AT 5 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.5
DEGREES EAST. THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 5
MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING AGAIN TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING CHAN-HOM THROUGH THE
MARIANAS SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND HAS DECREASED TO 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER...PRIMARILY
IN THE SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE. TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO
INTENSIFY AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON AGAIN
LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
AT 1100 PM LATER TONIGHT.

$$

EDSON



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 030657
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
500 PM CHST FRI JUL 3 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM DRIFTING NORTHWARD...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 148.5E

ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 315 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHEAST...030 DEGREES AT 5 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.5
DEGREES EAST. THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 5
MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING AGAIN TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING CHAN-HOM THROUGH THE
MARIANAS SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND HAS DECREASED TO 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER...PRIMARILY
IN THE SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE. TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO
INTENSIFY AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON AGAIN
LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
AT 1100 PM LATER TONIGHT.

$$

EDSON



000
AXNT20 KNHC 030604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE STARTING TO APPEAR DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS PRESENT FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND
77W...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR 12 HOURS OR SO AFTER STARTING. THE SEA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W
AND 25W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN
35W AND 47W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N60W 14N61W
9N61W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN
56W AND 67W.

ONE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W FROM
19N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE WAVE IS INLAND...PASSING THROUGH EXTREME EASTERN
HONDURAS...EASTERN NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA. THIS WAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE
WAVE.

A SECOND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND...ALONG
89W/90W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
BELIZE AND GUATEMALA...WESTERN HONDURAS...AND BEYOND EL SALVADOR
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN PART OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE. A SEPARATE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPANS THE NORTHERNMOST PART OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...FROM 20N NORTHWARD.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 10N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N24W TO
7N30W AND 8N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 28W AND 49W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA TO A 22N91W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THAT IS JUST
OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY REMNANT RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA
FROM EL SALVADOR TO 24N BETWEEN 86W AND 93W. ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 21N TO 27N...FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BETWEEN
80W AND 86W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N84W...
TOWARD AND BEYOND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL HISPANIOLA...TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W.

EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...SPANS MUCH OF THE
ENTIRE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...MORE PROMINENTLY...FROM 10N
TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND FROM 16N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W
AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA...SOUTHWESTWARD...
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM A 26N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL CHANGE TO SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY AND FINALLY
TO WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE LAST FEW 6-HOUR TIME
INTERVALS OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GIVING EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...GIVING
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...EVENTUALLY
SETTLING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO
30N67W...TO A 26N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
50W AND 80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 28N43W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 22N TO 31N
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO
30N28W...TO A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
34N50W...28N74W...BEYOND CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 030604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE STARTING TO APPEAR DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS PRESENT FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND
77W...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR 12 HOURS OR SO AFTER STARTING. THE SEA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W
AND 25W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN
35W AND 47W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N60W 14N61W
9N61W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN
56W AND 67W.

ONE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W FROM
19N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE WAVE IS INLAND...PASSING THROUGH EXTREME EASTERN
HONDURAS...EASTERN NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA. THIS WAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE
WAVE.

A SECOND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND...ALONG
89W/90W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
BELIZE AND GUATEMALA...WESTERN HONDURAS...AND BEYOND EL SALVADOR
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN PART OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE. A SEPARATE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPANS THE NORTHERNMOST PART OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...FROM 20N NORTHWARD.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 10N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N24W TO
7N30W AND 8N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 28W AND 49W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA TO A 22N91W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THAT IS JUST
OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY REMNANT RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA
FROM EL SALVADOR TO 24N BETWEEN 86W AND 93W. ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 21N TO 27N...FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BETWEEN
80W AND 86W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N84W...
TOWARD AND BEYOND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL HISPANIOLA...TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W.

EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...SPANS MUCH OF THE
ENTIRE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...MORE PROMINENTLY...FROM 10N
TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND FROM 16N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W
AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA...SOUTHWESTWARD...
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM A 26N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL CHANGE TO SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY AND FINALLY
TO WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE LAST FEW 6-HOUR TIME
INTERVALS OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GIVING EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...GIVING
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...EVENTUALLY
SETTLING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO
30N67W...TO A 26N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
50W AND 80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 28N43W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 22N TO 31N
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO
30N28W...TO A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
34N50W...28N74W...BEYOND CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 030604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE STARTING TO APPEAR DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS PRESENT FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND
77W...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR 12 HOURS OR SO AFTER STARTING. THE SEA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W
AND 25W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN
35W AND 47W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N60W 14N61W
9N61W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN
56W AND 67W.

ONE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W FROM
19N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE WAVE IS INLAND...PASSING THROUGH EXTREME EASTERN
HONDURAS...EASTERN NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA. THIS WAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE
WAVE.

A SECOND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND...ALONG
89W/90W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
BELIZE AND GUATEMALA...WESTERN HONDURAS...AND BEYOND EL SALVADOR
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN PART OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE. A SEPARATE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPANS THE NORTHERNMOST PART OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...FROM 20N NORTHWARD.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 10N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N24W TO
7N30W AND 8N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 28W AND 49W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA TO A 22N91W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THAT IS JUST
OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY REMNANT RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA
FROM EL SALVADOR TO 24N BETWEEN 86W AND 93W. ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 21N TO 27N...FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BETWEEN
80W AND 86W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N84W...
TOWARD AND BEYOND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL HISPANIOLA...TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W.

EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...SPANS MUCH OF THE
ENTIRE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...MORE PROMINENTLY...FROM 10N
TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND FROM 16N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W
AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA...SOUTHWESTWARD...
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM A 26N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL CHANGE TO SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY AND FINALLY
TO WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE LAST FEW 6-HOUR TIME
INTERVALS OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GIVING EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...GIVING
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...EVENTUALLY
SETTLING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO
30N67W...TO A 26N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
50W AND 80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 28N43W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 22N TO 31N
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO
30N28W...TO A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
34N50W...28N74W...BEYOND CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 030604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE STARTING TO APPEAR DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS PRESENT FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND
77W...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR 12 HOURS OR SO AFTER STARTING. THE SEA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W
AND 25W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN
35W AND 47W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N60W 14N61W
9N61W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN
56W AND 67W.

ONE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W FROM
19N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE WAVE IS INLAND...PASSING THROUGH EXTREME EASTERN
HONDURAS...EASTERN NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA. THIS WAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE
WAVE.

A SECOND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND...ALONG
89W/90W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
BELIZE AND GUATEMALA...WESTERN HONDURAS...AND BEYOND EL SALVADOR
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN PART OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE. A SEPARATE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPANS THE NORTHERNMOST PART OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...FROM 20N NORTHWARD.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 10N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N24W TO
7N30W AND 8N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 28W AND 49W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA TO A 22N91W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THAT IS JUST
OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY REMNANT RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA
FROM EL SALVADOR TO 24N BETWEEN 86W AND 93W. ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 21N TO 27N...FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BETWEEN
80W AND 86W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N84W...
TOWARD AND BEYOND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL HISPANIOLA...TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W.

EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...SPANS MUCH OF THE
ENTIRE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...MORE PROMINENTLY...FROM 10N
TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND FROM 16N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W
AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA...SOUTHWESTWARD...
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM A 26N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL CHANGE TO SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY AND FINALLY
TO WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE LAST FEW 6-HOUR TIME
INTERVALS OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GIVING EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...GIVING
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...EVENTUALLY
SETTLING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO
30N67W...TO A 26N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
50W AND 80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 28N43W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 22N TO 31N
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO
30N28W...TO A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
34N50W...28N74W...BEYOND CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 030604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE STARTING TO APPEAR DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS PRESENT FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND
77W...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR 12 HOURS OR SO AFTER STARTING. THE SEA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W
AND 25W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN
35W AND 47W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N60W 14N61W
9N61W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN
56W AND 67W.

ONE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W FROM
19N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE WAVE IS INLAND...PASSING THROUGH EXTREME EASTERN
HONDURAS...EASTERN NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA. THIS WAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE
WAVE.

A SECOND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND...ALONG
89W/90W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
BELIZE AND GUATEMALA...WESTERN HONDURAS...AND BEYOND EL SALVADOR
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN PART OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE. A SEPARATE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPANS THE NORTHERNMOST PART OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...FROM 20N NORTHWARD.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 10N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N24W TO
7N30W AND 8N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 28W AND 49W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA TO A 22N91W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THAT IS JUST
OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY REMNANT RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA
FROM EL SALVADOR TO 24N BETWEEN 86W AND 93W. ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 21N TO 27N...FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BETWEEN
80W AND 86W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N84W...
TOWARD AND BEYOND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL HISPANIOLA...TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W.

EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...SPANS MUCH OF THE
ENTIRE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...MORE PROMINENTLY...FROM 10N
TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND FROM 16N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W
AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA...SOUTHWESTWARD...
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM A 26N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL CHANGE TO SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY AND FINALLY
TO WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE LAST FEW 6-HOUR TIME
INTERVALS OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GIVING EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...GIVING
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...EVENTUALLY
SETTLING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO
30N67W...TO A 26N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
50W AND 80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 28N43W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 22N TO 31N
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO
30N28W...TO A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
34N50W...28N74W...BEYOND CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 030604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE STARTING TO APPEAR DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS PRESENT FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND
77W...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR 12 HOURS OR SO AFTER STARTING. THE SEA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W
AND 25W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN
35W AND 47W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N60W 14N61W
9N61W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN
56W AND 67W.

ONE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W FROM
19N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE WAVE IS INLAND...PASSING THROUGH EXTREME EASTERN
HONDURAS...EASTERN NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA. THIS WAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE
WAVE.

A SECOND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND...ALONG
89W/90W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
BELIZE AND GUATEMALA...WESTERN HONDURAS...AND BEYOND EL SALVADOR
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN PART OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE. A SEPARATE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPANS THE NORTHERNMOST PART OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...FROM 20N NORTHWARD.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 10N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N24W TO
7N30W AND 8N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 28W AND 49W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA TO A 22N91W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THAT IS JUST
OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY REMNANT RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA
FROM EL SALVADOR TO 24N BETWEEN 86W AND 93W. ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 21N TO 27N...FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BETWEEN
80W AND 86W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N84W...
TOWARD AND BEYOND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL HISPANIOLA...TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W.

EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...SPANS MUCH OF THE
ENTIRE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...MORE PROMINENTLY...FROM 10N
TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND FROM 16N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W
AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA...SOUTHWESTWARD...
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM A 26N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL CHANGE TO SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY AND FINALLY
TO WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE LAST FEW 6-HOUR TIME
INTERVALS OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GIVING EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...GIVING
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...EVENTUALLY
SETTLING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO
30N67W...TO A 26N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
50W AND 80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 28N43W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 22N TO 31N
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO
30N28W...TO A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
34N50W...28N74W...BEYOND CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
ACPN50 PHFO 030544
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST THU JUL 2 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE DURING ITS
SLOW PROGRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW..20 PERCENT

$$

GIBBS




000
ACPN50 PHFO 030544
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST THU JUL 2 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE DURING ITS
SLOW PROGRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW..20 PERCENT

$$

GIBBS





000
ABNT20 KNHC 030501
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABNT20 KNHC 030501
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABNT20 KNHC 030501
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 030500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disturbed weather is located about 1500 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.  Environmental conditions
are forecast to become conducive for gradual development of this
system over the next several days while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
about 1000 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas Mexico is
associated with a tropical wave.  Upper-level conditions are
forecast to become conducive for some development of this system
early next week while it moves to the west-northwest at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 030500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disturbed weather is located about 1500 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.  Environmental conditions
are forecast to become conducive for gradual development of this
system over the next several days while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
about 1000 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas Mexico is
associated with a tropical wave.  Upper-level conditions are
forecast to become conducive for some development of this system
early next week while it moves to the west-northwest at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 030500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disturbed weather is located about 1500 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.  Environmental conditions
are forecast to become conducive for gradual development of this
system over the next several days while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
about 1000 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas Mexico is
associated with a tropical wave.  Upper-level conditions are
forecast to become conducive for some development of this system
early next week while it moves to the west-northwest at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 030500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disturbed weather is located about 1500 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.  Environmental conditions
are forecast to become conducive for gradual development of this
system over the next several days while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
about 1000 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas Mexico is
associated with a tropical wave.  Upper-level conditions are
forecast to become conducive for some development of this system
early next week while it moves to the west-northwest at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 030327
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
130 PM CHST FRI JUL 3 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.3N 148.0E

ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 365 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...QUASI-STATIONARY

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.0
DEGREES EAST. THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM IS QUASI-STATIONARY. CHAN-
HOM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT. THIS TRACK
WOULD BRING CHAN-HOM THROUGH THE MARIANAS SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND HAS DECREASED TO 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...AND COULD BECOME A
TYPHOON AGAIN SATURDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

KLEESCHULTE


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030247
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W/99W N OF 08N. NO SIGNFICANT CONVECTION
NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 104W/105W FROM 05N TO 14N. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 97W AND
102W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W/113W FROM 06N TO 15N. CONVECTION
DESCRIBED IN ITCZ SECTION BELOW.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 133W/134W FROM 06N TO 15N. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N78W TO 08N85W TO 08N90W. THE ITCZ FROM
08N90W TO 08N112W TO 09N132W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN
112W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 110W...1017 MB HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR
27N120W...REPLACING A WEAK LOW PRES ARE IN THIS AREA THAT HAS
SINCE SHIFTED WEST. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
TO MODERATE...BUT HAVE SHIFTED TO THE MORE TYPICAL NW DIRECTION
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA PENINSULA. DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW RELATED TO A
SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS KEEPING THE REGION NEARLY CLOUD FREE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS OFF THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN
ACAPULCO AND MANZANILLO WHERE A SMALL UPPER LOW...CUT OFF FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NW...IS SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC
ISTHMUS WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT...WITH SEAS REACHING 8 FT BY EARLY FRI.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH EARLY FRI AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS
WEST AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES. WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST BY LATE FRI AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER N CENTRAL
MEXICO. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE.

S OF 15N E OF 120W...PERSISTENT STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW STRONG GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO THE GULF
OF FONSECA TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT
NIGHT...WITH PULSES OF FRESH SWELL PROPAGATING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WESTWARD AS FAR WEST AS 95W BEFORE DECAYING BELOW 8
FT. FRESH GAP WIND FLOW PERSIST INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA AS WELL.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 11N BETWEEN
95W AND 105W ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AND BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC
TURNING IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN PHASE WITH
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103/104W AND MAY HAVE AN ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT FROM PREVIOUS GAP WIND FLOW.

ELSEWHERE...THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN
115W AND 125W WAS PREVIOUSLY ENHANCED BY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT
SOUTH OF AN UPPER LOW...BUT HAS NOW ACTIVE INDEPENDENTLY OF THE
UPPER SUPPORT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK LOW PRES
FORMING ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 120W THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH THE STRONGEST AND MOST CONSISTENT LOW NEAR 135W BY
FRI. THE TRADE WINDS REMAIN WEAK DUE TO MODEST HIGH PRES N OF
THE AREA...BUT WITH DEEPENING LOW PRES EXPECTED IN THE TROPICS
LOCALIZED WINDS TO 25 KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SEAS TO 8 FT NEAR
THE AREAS OF LOW PRES. LOOKING AHEAD...SOME UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS
IN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THE ONE OR MORE OF THESE LOWS IN THE DEEP TROPICS WEST OF
125W AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030247
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W/99W N OF 08N. NO SIGNFICANT CONVECTION
NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 104W/105W FROM 05N TO 14N. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 97W AND
102W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W/113W FROM 06N TO 15N. CONVECTION
DESCRIBED IN ITCZ SECTION BELOW.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 133W/134W FROM 06N TO 15N. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N78W TO 08N85W TO 08N90W. THE ITCZ FROM
08N90W TO 08N112W TO 09N132W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN
112W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 110W...1017 MB HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR
27N120W...REPLACING A WEAK LOW PRES ARE IN THIS AREA THAT HAS
SINCE SHIFTED WEST. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
TO MODERATE...BUT HAVE SHIFTED TO THE MORE TYPICAL NW DIRECTION
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA PENINSULA. DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW RELATED TO A
SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS KEEPING THE REGION NEARLY CLOUD FREE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS OFF THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN
ACAPULCO AND MANZANILLO WHERE A SMALL UPPER LOW...CUT OFF FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NW...IS SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC
ISTHMUS WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT...WITH SEAS REACHING 8 FT BY EARLY FRI.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH EARLY FRI AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS
WEST AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES. WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST BY LATE FRI AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER N CENTRAL
MEXICO. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE.

S OF 15N E OF 120W...PERSISTENT STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW STRONG GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO THE GULF
OF FONSECA TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT
NIGHT...WITH PULSES OF FRESH SWELL PROPAGATING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WESTWARD AS FAR WEST AS 95W BEFORE DECAYING BELOW 8
FT. FRESH GAP WIND FLOW PERSIST INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA AS WELL.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 11N BETWEEN
95W AND 105W ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AND BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC
TURNING IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN PHASE WITH
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103/104W AND MAY HAVE AN ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT FROM PREVIOUS GAP WIND FLOW.

ELSEWHERE...THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN
115W AND 125W WAS PREVIOUSLY ENHANCED BY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT
SOUTH OF AN UPPER LOW...BUT HAS NOW ACTIVE INDEPENDENTLY OF THE
UPPER SUPPORT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK LOW PRES
FORMING ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 120W THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH THE STRONGEST AND MOST CONSISTENT LOW NEAR 135W BY
FRI. THE TRADE WINDS REMAIN WEAK DUE TO MODEST HIGH PRES N OF
THE AREA...BUT WITH DEEPENING LOW PRES EXPECTED IN THE TROPICS
LOCALIZED WINDS TO 25 KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SEAS TO 8 FT NEAR
THE AREAS OF LOW PRES. LOOKING AHEAD...SOME UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS
IN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THE ONE OR MORE OF THESE LOWS IN THE DEEP TROPICS WEST OF
125W AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 030104
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 AM CHST FRI JUL 3 2015

...CHAN-HOM WEAKENS TO TROPICAL STORM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.3N 148.5E

ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 380 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...QUASI-STATIONARY

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.5
DEGREES EAST. THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM IS QUASI-STATIONARY AND HAS
BEEN RELOCATED FURTHER EAST. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING CHAN-HOM THROUGH
THE MARIANAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND HAS DECREASED TO 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND
COULD BECOME A TYPHOON AGAIN THIS EVENING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM.

$$

KLEESCHULTE


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 030104
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 AM CHST FRI JUL 3 2015

...CHAN-HOM WEAKENS TO TROPICAL STORM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.3N 148.5E

ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 380 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...QUASI-STATIONARY

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.5
DEGREES EAST. THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM IS QUASI-STATIONARY AND HAS
BEEN RELOCATED FURTHER EAST. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING CHAN-HOM THROUGH
THE MARIANAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND HAS DECREASED TO 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND
COULD BECOME A TYPHOON AGAIN THIS EVENING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM.

$$

KLEESCHULTE



000
ACPN50 PHFO 030036
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST THU JUL 2 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AREA
OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE DURING ITS SLOW
PROGRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW..20 PERCENT

$$

EVANS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 030036
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST THU JUL 2 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AREA
OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE DURING ITS SLOW
PROGRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW..20 PERCENT

$$

EVANS





000
ACPN50 PHFO 030036
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST THU JUL 2 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AREA
OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE DURING ITS SLOW
PROGRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW..20 PERCENT

$$

EVANS





000
ACPN50 PHFO 030036
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST THU JUL 2 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AREA
OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE DURING ITS SLOW
PROGRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW..20 PERCENT

$$

EVANS





000
ACPN50 PHFO 030036
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST THU JUL 2 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AREA
OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE DURING ITS SLOW
PROGRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW..20 PERCENT

$$

EVANS





000
ACPN50 PHFO 030036
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST THU JUL 2 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AREA
OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE DURING ITS SLOW
PROGRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW..20 PERCENT

$$

EVANS





000
AXNT20 KNHC 022348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND THE LOWER PRESSURES OVER
SOUTH AMERICA WILL GENERATE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W
STARTING BY 0600 UTC FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING FROM 10
TO 15 FT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST EARLIER THIS
MORNING...WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N20W TO 07N20W. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY DEPICTS THIS WAVE EMBEDDED IN A BULGE OF MODERATE
MOISTURE. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG 11N BETWEEN 18W-
22W. METEOSAT PSEUDO-NATURAL AND SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOW
SAHARAN DUST ENGULFING THE WAVE...THUS LIMITING SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 13N38W TO 07N38W...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15
KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THIS WAVE EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. ISOLATED LIGHT TO
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF 10N BETWEEN 37W-39W.

A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS FARTHER W WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
13N50W TO 07N51W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SAHARAN DUST PREVAILS
IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT HINDERING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N60W TO 09N61W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY
SHOW THE WAVE IS MAINLY IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT AND WITH A SAHARAN
AIRMASS PREVAILING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN...NO CONVECTION IS
RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N82W TO 10N83W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT AROUND 15-20 KT.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS MAINLY EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR
CONTINUES TO INHIBIT CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W THROUGH 09N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE BEGINS FROM 09N22W TO 08N38W THEN RESUMES W OF
A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 08N40W TO 07N58W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 30W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EXTENDS
ITS RIDGE W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
WHERE IT IS ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N86W.
WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS S
OF 24N AND E OF 84W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
SURFACE RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA STARTING 0600 UTC FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
FROM 10 TO 15 FT. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE
BASIN...FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE.
A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
REACHING THE EPAC...IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AND AFFECTING
THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 85W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SAHARAN AIRMASS WHICH CONTINUES TO
INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS S OF 16N BETWEEN 79W-79W. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO CONTINUE MOVING W.
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SAHARAN DRY AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN INCLUDING HISPANIOLA WHERE DUST IS BEING REPORTED.
FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THIS LARGE
DRY AND DUSTY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC SUPPORTING
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS MAINLY W OF 76W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 33N49W.
WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE
TROPICAL WAVES...PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 022348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND THE LOWER PRESSURES OVER
SOUTH AMERICA WILL GENERATE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W
STARTING BY 0600 UTC FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING FROM 10
TO 15 FT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST EARLIER THIS
MORNING...WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N20W TO 07N20W. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY DEPICTS THIS WAVE EMBEDDED IN A BULGE OF MODERATE
MOISTURE. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG 11N BETWEEN 18W-
22W. METEOSAT PSEUDO-NATURAL AND SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOW
SAHARAN DUST ENGULFING THE WAVE...THUS LIMITING SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 13N38W TO 07N38W...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15
KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THIS WAVE EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. ISOLATED LIGHT TO
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF 10N BETWEEN 37W-39W.

A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS FARTHER W WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
13N50W TO 07N51W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SAHARAN DUST PREVAILS
IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT HINDERING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N60W TO 09N61W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY
SHOW THE WAVE IS MAINLY IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT AND WITH A SAHARAN
AIRMASS PREVAILING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN...NO CONVECTION IS
RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N82W TO 10N83W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT AROUND 15-20 KT.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS MAINLY EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR
CONTINUES TO INHIBIT CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W THROUGH 09N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE BEGINS FROM 09N22W TO 08N38W THEN RESUMES W OF
A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 08N40W TO 07N58W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 30W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EXTENDS
ITS RIDGE W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
WHERE IT IS ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N86W.
WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS S
OF 24N AND E OF 84W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
SURFACE RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA STARTING 0600 UTC FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
FROM 10 TO 15 FT. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE
BASIN...FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE.
A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
REACHING THE EPAC...IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AND AFFECTING
THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 85W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SAHARAN AIRMASS WHICH CONTINUES TO
INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS S OF 16N BETWEEN 79W-79W. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO CONTINUE MOVING W.
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SAHARAN DRY AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN INCLUDING HISPANIOLA WHERE DUST IS BEING REPORTED.
FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THIS LARGE
DRY AND DUSTY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC SUPPORTING
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS MAINLY W OF 76W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 33N49W.
WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE
TROPICAL WAVES...PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 022348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND THE LOWER PRESSURES OVER
SOUTH AMERICA WILL GENERATE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W
STARTING BY 0600 UTC FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING FROM 10
TO 15 FT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST EARLIER THIS
MORNING...WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N20W TO 07N20W. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY DEPICTS THIS WAVE EMBEDDED IN A BULGE OF MODERATE
MOISTURE. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG 11N BETWEEN 18W-
22W. METEOSAT PSEUDO-NATURAL AND SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOW
SAHARAN DUST ENGULFING THE WAVE...THUS LIMITING SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 13N38W TO 07N38W...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15
KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THIS WAVE EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. ISOLATED LIGHT TO
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF 10N BETWEEN 37W-39W.

A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS FARTHER W WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
13N50W TO 07N51W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SAHARAN DUST PREVAILS
IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT HINDERING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N60W TO 09N61W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY
SHOW THE WAVE IS MAINLY IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT AND WITH A SAHARAN
AIRMASS PREVAILING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN...NO CONVECTION IS
RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N82W TO 10N83W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT AROUND 15-20 KT.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS MAINLY EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR
CONTINUES TO INHIBIT CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W THROUGH 09N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE BEGINS FROM 09N22W TO 08N38W THEN RESUMES W OF
A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 08N40W TO 07N58W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 30W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EXTENDS
ITS RIDGE W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
WHERE IT IS ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N86W.
WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS S
OF 24N AND E OF 84W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
SURFACE RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA STARTING 0600 UTC FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
FROM 10 TO 15 FT. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE
BASIN...FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE.
A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
REACHING THE EPAC...IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AND AFFECTING
THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 85W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SAHARAN AIRMASS WHICH CONTINUES TO
INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS S OF 16N BETWEEN 79W-79W. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO CONTINUE MOVING W.
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SAHARAN DRY AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN INCLUDING HISPANIOLA WHERE DUST IS BEING REPORTED.
FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THIS LARGE
DRY AND DUSTY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC SUPPORTING
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS MAINLY W OF 76W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 33N49W.
WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE
TROPICAL WAVES...PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 022348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND THE LOWER PRESSURES OVER
SOUTH AMERICA WILL GENERATE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W
STARTING BY 0600 UTC FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING FROM 10
TO 15 FT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST EARLIER THIS
MORNING...WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N20W TO 07N20W. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY DEPICTS THIS WAVE EMBEDDED IN A BULGE OF MODERATE
MOISTURE. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG 11N BETWEEN 18W-
22W. METEOSAT PSEUDO-NATURAL AND SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOW
SAHARAN DUST ENGULFING THE WAVE...THUS LIMITING SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 13N38W TO 07N38W...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15
KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THIS WAVE EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. ISOLATED LIGHT TO
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF 10N BETWEEN 37W-39W.

A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS FARTHER W WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
13N50W TO 07N51W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SAHARAN DUST PREVAILS
IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT HINDERING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N60W TO 09N61W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY
SHOW THE WAVE IS MAINLY IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT AND WITH A SAHARAN
AIRMASS PREVAILING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN...NO CONVECTION IS
RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N82W TO 10N83W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT AROUND 15-20 KT.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS MAINLY EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR
CONTINUES TO INHIBIT CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W THROUGH 09N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE BEGINS FROM 09N22W TO 08N38W THEN RESUMES W OF
A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 08N40W TO 07N58W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 30W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EXTENDS
ITS RIDGE W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
WHERE IT IS ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N86W.
WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS S
OF 24N AND E OF 84W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
SURFACE RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA STARTING 0600 UTC FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
FROM 10 TO 15 FT. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE
BASIN...FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE.
A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
REACHING THE EPAC...IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AND AFFECTING
THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 85W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SAHARAN AIRMASS WHICH CONTINUES TO
INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS S OF 16N BETWEEN 79W-79W. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO CONTINUE MOVING W.
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SAHARAN DRY AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN INCLUDING HISPANIOLA WHERE DUST IS BEING REPORTED.
FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THIS LARGE
DRY AND DUSTY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC SUPPORTING
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS MAINLY W OF 76W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 33N49W.
WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE
TROPICAL WAVES...PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


000
ACPN50 PHFO 022343
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST THU JUL 2 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

A BOARD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AREA
OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE DURING ITS SLOW
PROGRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW..20 PERCENT

$$

EVANS





000
ACPN50 PHFO 022343
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST THU JUL 2 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

A BOARD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AREA
OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE DURING ITS SLOW
PROGRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW..20 PERCENT

$$

EVANS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 022343
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST THU JUL 2 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

A BOARD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AREA
OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE DURING ITS SLOW
PROGRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW..20 PERCENT

$$

EVANS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 022343
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST THU JUL 2 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

A BOARD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AREA
OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE DURING ITS SLOW
PROGRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW..20 PERCENT

$$

EVANS





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 022333
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT JUEVES 2 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 022333
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT JUEVES 2 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 022333
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT JUEVES 2 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 022333
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT JUEVES 2 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH


000
ABNT20 KNHC 022332
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABNT20 KNHC 022332
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABNT20 KNHC 022332
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABNT20 KNHC 022332
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 022331
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disturbed weather is located about 1500 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.  Environmental conditions
are forecast to become conducive for gradual development of this
system over the next several days while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
about 1000 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas Mexico is
associated with a tropical wave.  Upper-level conditions are
forecast to become conducive for some development of this system
early next week while it moves to the west-northwest at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 022331
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disturbed weather is located about 1500 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.  Environmental conditions
are forecast to become conducive for gradual development of this
system over the next several days while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
about 1000 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas Mexico is
associated with a tropical wave.  Upper-level conditions are
forecast to become conducive for some development of this system
early next week while it moves to the west-northwest at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 022331
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disturbed weather is located about 1500 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.  Environmental conditions
are forecast to become conducive for gradual development of this
system over the next several days while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
about 1000 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas Mexico is
associated with a tropical wave.  Upper-level conditions are
forecast to become conducive for some development of this system
early next week while it moves to the west-northwest at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022208
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF OF 88W/89W MOVING W 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W/104W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 113W/114W MOVING W 15-20 KT.

TROPICAL WAVES BETWEEN 125W AND 138W ARE BECOMING DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN FROM WAVE TO WAVE AND ARE PRODUCING AN ELONGATED AND
EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DESCRIBED BELOW.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

WEAK MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 06N77W TO 08N85W TO 08N90W.
THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES WEST FROM 08N90W TO 10N130W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM WITHIN 180
NM N OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S AND 240 N OF AXIS
BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 135W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 110W...1017 MB HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR
27N120W...REPLACING A WEAK LOW PRES ARE IN THIS AREA THAT HAS
SINCE SHIFTED WEST. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
TO MODERATE...BUT HAVE SHIFTED TO THE MORE TYPICAL NW DIRECTION
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA PENINSULA. DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW RELATED TO A
SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS KEEPING THE REGION NEARLY CLOUD FREE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS OFF THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN
ACAPULCO AND MANZANILLO WHERE A SMALL UPPER LOW...CUT OFF FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NW...IS SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC
ISTHMUS WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT...WITH SEAS REACHING 8 FT BY EARLY FRI.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH EARLY FRI AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS
WEST AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES. WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST BY LATE FRI AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER N CENTRAL
MEXICO. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE.

S OF 15N E OF 120W...PERSISTENT STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW STRONG GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO THE GULF
OF FONSECA TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT
NIGHT...WITH PULSES OF FRESH SWELL PROPAGATING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WESTWARD AS FAR WEST AS 95W BEFORE DECAYING BELOW 8
FT. FRESH GAP WIND FLOW PERSIST INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA AS WELL.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 11N BETWEEN
95W AND 105W ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AND BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC
TURNING IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN PHASE WITH
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103/104W AND MAY HAVE AN ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT FROM PREVIOUS GAP WIND FLOW.

ELSEWHERE...THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN
115W AND 125W WAS PREVIOUSLY ENHANCED BY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT
SOUTH OF AN UPPER LOW...BUT HAS NOW ACTIVE INDEPENDENTLY OF THE
UPPER SUPPORT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK LOW PRES
FORMING ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 120W THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH THE STRONGEST AND MOST CONSISTENT LOW NEAR 135W BY
FRI. THE TRADE WINDS REMAIN WEAK DUE TO MODEST HIGH PRES N OF
THE AREA...BUT WITH DEEPENING LOW PRES EXPECTED IN THE TROPICS
LOCALIZED WINDS TO 25 KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SEAS TO 8 FT NEAR
THE AREAS OF LOW PRES. LOOKING AHEAD...SOME UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS
IN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THE ONE OR MORE OF THESE LOWS IN THE DEEP TROPICS WEST OF
125W AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022208
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF OF 88W/89W MOVING W 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W/104W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 113W/114W MOVING W 15-20 KT.

TROPICAL WAVES BETWEEN 125W AND 138W ARE BECOMING DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN FROM WAVE TO WAVE AND ARE PRODUCING AN ELONGATED AND
EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DESCRIBED BELOW.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

WEAK MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 06N77W TO 08N85W TO 08N90W.
THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES WEST FROM 08N90W TO 10N130W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM WITHIN 180
NM N OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S AND 240 N OF AXIS
BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 135W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 110W...1017 MB HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR
27N120W...REPLACING A WEAK LOW PRES ARE IN THIS AREA THAT HAS
SINCE SHIFTED WEST. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
TO MODERATE...BUT HAVE SHIFTED TO THE MORE TYPICAL NW DIRECTION
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA PENINSULA. DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW RELATED TO A
SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS KEEPING THE REGION NEARLY CLOUD FREE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS OFF THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN
ACAPULCO AND MANZANILLO WHERE A SMALL UPPER LOW...CUT OFF FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NW...IS SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC
ISTHMUS WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT...WITH SEAS REACHING 8 FT BY EARLY FRI.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH EARLY FRI AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS
WEST AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES. WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST BY LATE FRI AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER N CENTRAL
MEXICO. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE.

S OF 15N E OF 120W...PERSISTENT STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW STRONG GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO THE GULF
OF FONSECA TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT
NIGHT...WITH PULSES OF FRESH SWELL PROPAGATING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WESTWARD AS FAR WEST AS 95W BEFORE DECAYING BELOW 8
FT. FRESH GAP WIND FLOW PERSIST INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA AS WELL.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 11N BETWEEN
95W AND 105W ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AND BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC
TURNING IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN PHASE WITH
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103/104W AND MAY HAVE AN ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT FROM PREVIOUS GAP WIND FLOW.

ELSEWHERE...THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN
115W AND 125W WAS PREVIOUSLY ENHANCED BY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT
SOUTH OF AN UPPER LOW...BUT HAS NOW ACTIVE INDEPENDENTLY OF THE
UPPER SUPPORT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK LOW PRES
FORMING ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 120W THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH THE STRONGEST AND MOST CONSISTENT LOW NEAR 135W BY
FRI. THE TRADE WINDS REMAIN WEAK DUE TO MODEST HIGH PRES N OF
THE AREA...BUT WITH DEEPENING LOW PRES EXPECTED IN THE TROPICS
LOCALIZED WINDS TO 25 KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SEAS TO 8 FT NEAR
THE AREAS OF LOW PRES. LOOKING AHEAD...SOME UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS
IN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THE ONE OR MORE OF THESE LOWS IN THE DEEP TROPICS WEST OF
125W AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 022107
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
700 AM CHST FRI JUL 3 2015

...TYPHOON CHAN-HOM SLOWS DOWN SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.2N 148.1E

ABOUT 320 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND
ABOUT 370 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.1 DEGREES
EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST AT 3 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING CHAN-HOM THROUGH THE MARIANAS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND REMAINS NEAR 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TYPHOON CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 PM.

$$

KLEESCHULTE



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 022107
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
700 AM CHST FRI JUL 3 2015

...TYPHOON CHAN-HOM SLOWS DOWN SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.2N 148.1E

ABOUT 320 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND
ABOUT 370 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.1 DEGREES
EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST AT 3 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING CHAN-HOM THROUGH THE MARIANAS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND REMAINS NEAR 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TYPHOON CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 PM.

$$

KLEESCHULTE


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 021857
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
500 AM CHST FRI JUL 3 2015

...TYPHOON CHAN-HOM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 148.1E

ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 380 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-SOUTHWEST...250 DEGREES AT 23 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM IS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.1 DEGREES
EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 23 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED THIS MORNING. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT ON A TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH THE
MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND REMAINS NEAR 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TYPHOON CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
AT 1100 AM.

$$

ZIOBRO


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 021857
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
500 AM CHST FRI JUL 3 2015

...TYPHOON CHAN-HOM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 148.1E

ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 380 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-SOUTHWEST...250 DEGREES AT 23 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM IS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.1 DEGREES
EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 23 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED THIS MORNING. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT ON A TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH THE
MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND REMAINS NEAR 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TYPHOON CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
AT 1100 AM.

$$

ZIOBRO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 021803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA STARTING 0600 UTC FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
FROM 11 TO 17 FT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST EARLIER THIS
MORNING...ITS AXIS IS APPROXIMATELY NEAR 18W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY
SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BULGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE THAT
ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 07N TO 11N E OF 20W. METEOSAT
PSEUDO-NATURAL AND SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND
DUST ENGULFING THE WAVE...THUS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR
36W...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW
THAT MOISTURE HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO THE WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE...SAHARAN
DRY AIR AND DUST ENGULF THE WAVE...THUS LIMITING THE CONVECTION
TO THE ITCZ REGION FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 33W AND 40W.

A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS FARTHER WEST WITH AXIS APPROXIMATELY NEAR
48W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. DRY AIR AND DUST ARE OVER THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...THUS HINDERING CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS NEAR
58W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS
MAINLY IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT...EXCEPT AHEAD OF THE WAVE WHERE
MODERATE MOISTURE ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 82W
...MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS MAINLY
EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR INHIBITS CONVECTION AT THE TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 09N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 07N21W AND CONTINUES
TO 06N34W...RESUMING W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N37W TO 06N50W TO
THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR 06N57W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
05N TO 08N BETWEEN 26W AND 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS W-SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE ENTIRE GULF
OF MEXICO WHERE THE RIDGE IS BEING ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH
NEAR 28N85W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE MOISTURE ALONG
COASTAL WATERS OF EASTERN MEXICO THAT ALONG WITH A MIDDLE LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED OVER THE SW GULF SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS
FROM 21N-25N W OF 96W. MODERATE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SE
CONUS...ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER FRONT...ALONG WITH A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT
EXTEND WITHIN 20 NM OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND REGION FROM
CLEARWATER TO FORT MYERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ON THE SE GULF
FROM 24N TO 26N E OF 84W. EXCEPT THE NE GULF WHERE WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THE REMAINDER BASIN IS BEING DOMINATED BY
SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING
WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA STARTING 0600 UTC FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
FROM 11 TO 17 FT. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE SPECIAL FEATURES.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE BASIN ARE TWO TROPICAL WAVES.
ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND EPAC WATERS
WITH AXIS EXTENDING N ACROSS HONDURAS TO EAST OF BELIZE.
MODERATE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ENHANCES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 19N W OF 85W. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 82W...HOWEVER
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN IS
INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. A SAHARAN AIRMASS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN...THUS
SUPPORTING HAZY CONDITIONS. DUST ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DRY
AIRMASS IS BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
HISPANIOLA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. WINDS OF
20 TO 25 KT ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN S OF 18N
BETWEEN 64W AND 83W. TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE TWO
TROPICAL WAVES WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN DURING
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SAHARAN DRY AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN INCLUDING HISPANIOLA WHERE DUST IS BEING REPORTED.
FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THIS LARGE
TONGUE OF DRY AND DUSTY AIR CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE E CONUS AND NW ATLC
WATERS HAS ITS BASE EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT N OF THE AREA
OF DISCUSSION...WHICH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ENHANCES SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 29N W OF 77W. SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND CENTRAL CUBA COASTAL WATERS BEING
ENHANCED BY MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS
BEING DOMINATED BY BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ANCHORED BY A
1028 MB HIGH NEAR 34N50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 021803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA STARTING 0600 UTC FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
FROM 11 TO 17 FT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST EARLIER THIS
MORNING...ITS AXIS IS APPROXIMATELY NEAR 18W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY
SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BULGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE THAT
ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 07N TO 11N E OF 20W. METEOSAT
PSEUDO-NATURAL AND SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND
DUST ENGULFING THE WAVE...THUS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR
36W...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW
THAT MOISTURE HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO THE WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE...SAHARAN
DRY AIR AND DUST ENGULF THE WAVE...THUS LIMITING THE CONVECTION
TO THE ITCZ REGION FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 33W AND 40W.

A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS FARTHER WEST WITH AXIS APPROXIMATELY NEAR
48W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. DRY AIR AND DUST ARE OVER THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...THUS HINDERING CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS NEAR
58W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS
MAINLY IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT...EXCEPT AHEAD OF THE WAVE WHERE
MODERATE MOISTURE ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 82W
...MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS MAINLY
EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR INHIBITS CONVECTION AT THE TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 09N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 07N21W AND CONTINUES
TO 06N34W...RESUMING W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N37W TO 06N50W TO
THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR 06N57W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
05N TO 08N BETWEEN 26W AND 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS W-SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE ENTIRE GULF
OF MEXICO WHERE THE RIDGE IS BEING ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH
NEAR 28N85W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE MOISTURE ALONG
COASTAL WATERS OF EASTERN MEXICO THAT ALONG WITH A MIDDLE LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED OVER THE SW GULF SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS
FROM 21N-25N W OF 96W. MODERATE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SE
CONUS...ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER FRONT...ALONG WITH A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT
EXTEND WITHIN 20 NM OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND REGION FROM
CLEARWATER TO FORT MYERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ON THE SE GULF
FROM 24N TO 26N E OF 84W. EXCEPT THE NE GULF WHERE WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THE REMAINDER BASIN IS BEING DOMINATED BY
SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING
WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA STARTING 0600 UTC FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
FROM 11 TO 17 FT. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE SPECIAL FEATURES.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE BASIN ARE TWO TROPICAL WAVES.
ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND EPAC WATERS
WITH AXIS EXTENDING N ACROSS HONDURAS TO EAST OF BELIZE.
MODERATE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ENHANCES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 19N W OF 85W. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 82W...HOWEVER
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN IS
INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. A SAHARAN AIRMASS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN...THUS
SUPPORTING HAZY CONDITIONS. DUST ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DRY
AIRMASS IS BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
HISPANIOLA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. WINDS OF
20 TO 25 KT ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN S OF 18N
BETWEEN 64W AND 83W. TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE TWO
TROPICAL WAVES WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN DURING
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SAHARAN DRY AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN INCLUDING HISPANIOLA WHERE DUST IS BEING REPORTED.
FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THIS LARGE
TONGUE OF DRY AND DUSTY AIR CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE E CONUS AND NW ATLC
WATERS HAS ITS BASE EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT N OF THE AREA
OF DISCUSSION...WHICH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ENHANCES SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 29N W OF 77W. SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND CENTRAL CUBA COASTAL WATERS BEING
ENHANCED BY MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS
BEING DOMINATED BY BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ANCHORED BY A
1028 MB HIGH NEAR 34N50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
ACPN50 PHFO 021740
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST THU JUL 2 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

EVANS





000
ACPN50 PHFO 021740
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST THU JUL 2 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

EVANS






000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021735
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disturbed weather is located over the far
southwestern eastern Pacific centered about 1500 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.  Environmental conditions
are forecast to become conducive for gradual development of this
system over the next several days while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of
Manzanillo Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Upper-level conditions are forecast to become
conducive for some development of this system early next week while
it moves to the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 021728
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT JUEVES 2 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 021728
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT JUEVES 2 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 021728
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT JUEVES 2 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 021728
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT JUEVES 2 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN



000
ABNT20 KNHC 021727
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABNT20 KNHC 021727
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABNT20 KNHC 021727
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABNT20 KNHC 021727
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABNT20 KNHC 021727
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021612
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF OF 90W MOVING W 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W-103W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 113W MOVING W 15-20 KT.

SERIES OF THREE TROPICAL WAVES BETWEEN 125W AND 138W ARE
BECOMING DIFFICULT TO DISCERN FROM WAVE TO WAVE AND ARE
PRODUCING AN ELONGATED AND EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DESCRIBED BELOW.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
08N87W TO 05N98W TO 09N126W TO 10N134W TO LOW PRES NEAR
08N138.5W TO BEYOND 09N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 03.5N TO 06.5N E OF 79W TO COAST OF
COLOMBIA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
NOTED FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 118W AND 142W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM N AND 90 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 95W AND
102W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS DEVELOPING ACROSS N AND NW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY...AND MERGING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH N
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO EXTEND FROM THE W COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO 160W. STRONG WESTERLIES AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT NORTHWARD BETWEEN 120W AND 140W AS A SHORT
WAVE IS MOVING NE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH...AND
REDUCING THE UPPER WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE BROAD ZONE OF DEEP
CONVECTION OCCURRING BETWEEN 118W AND 142W. THIS IS ALLOWING
UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THIS AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...
NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 22N124W. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD N AND NE THROUGH SAT AS A TUTT
LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 13N106W. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN 110W AND 135W FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. IN FACT...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS TO BECOME STRUNG OUT ACROSS THIS
AREA BETWEEN 120W AND 140W THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND SLOW AND
GRADUAL IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF ANY OF THESE LOWS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS.

THE STRONG NE PACIFIC EXTENDING S INTO THE LOCAL AREA THE PAST
FEW DAYS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA...LEAVING ONLY
A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS CENTERED ON A 1015 MB HIGH
NEAR 28N122W AND EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 23N111W. A MODEST PRES
GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TRADES S OF
17N AND W OF 110W...WITH LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADES BEING
INFLUENCED BY THE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS W OF 130W. SEAS ACROSS
THIS REGION ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT...EXCEPT 7 TO 9 FT W OF
130W. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES HAVE RETURN TO THE AREA E OF 110W
WITH THE PASSAGE OF RECENT TROPICAL WAVES...AND EXTEND N TO 15N
OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST.

GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ALSO PRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS TO 25 KT
AT NIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. NE TO E WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WERE 20-25 KT THIS MORNING AND EXTENDED W
TO 90W...WITH SEAS 7 TO 9 FT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021612
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF OF 90W MOVING W 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W-103W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 113W MOVING W 15-20 KT.

SERIES OF THREE TROPICAL WAVES BETWEEN 125W AND 138W ARE
BECOMING DIFFICULT TO DISCERN FROM WAVE TO WAVE AND ARE
PRODUCING AN ELONGATED AND EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DESCRIBED BELOW.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
08N87W TO 05N98W TO 09N126W TO 10N134W TO LOW PRES NEAR
08N138.5W TO BEYOND 09N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 03.5N TO 06.5N E OF 79W TO COAST OF
COLOMBIA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
NOTED FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 118W AND 142W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM N AND 90 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 95W AND
102W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS DEVELOPING ACROSS N AND NW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY...AND MERGING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH N
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO EXTEND FROM THE W COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO 160W. STRONG WESTERLIES AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT NORTHWARD BETWEEN 120W AND 140W AS A SHORT
WAVE IS MOVING NE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH...AND
REDUCING THE UPPER WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE BROAD ZONE OF DEEP
CONVECTION OCCURRING BETWEEN 118W AND 142W. THIS IS ALLOWING
UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THIS AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...
NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 22N124W. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD N AND NE THROUGH SAT AS A TUTT
LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 13N106W. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN 110W AND 135W FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. IN FACT...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS TO BECOME STRUNG OUT ACROSS THIS
AREA BETWEEN 120W AND 140W THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND SLOW AND
GRADUAL IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF ANY OF THESE LOWS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS.

THE STRONG NE PACIFIC EXTENDING S INTO THE LOCAL AREA THE PAST
FEW DAYS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA...LEAVING ONLY
A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS CENTERED ON A 1015 MB HIGH
NEAR 28N122W AND EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 23N111W. A MODEST PRES
GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TRADES S OF
17N AND W OF 110W...WITH LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADES BEING
INFLUENCED BY THE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS W OF 130W. SEAS ACROSS
THIS REGION ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT...EXCEPT 7 TO 9 FT W OF
130W. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES HAVE RETURN TO THE AREA E OF 110W
WITH THE PASSAGE OF RECENT TROPICAL WAVES...AND EXTEND N TO 15N
OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST.

GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ALSO PRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS TO 25 KT
AT NIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. NE TO E WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WERE 20-25 KT THIS MORNING AND EXTENDED W
TO 90W...WITH SEAS 7 TO 9 FT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021612
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF OF 90W MOVING W 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W-103W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 113W MOVING W 15-20 KT.

SERIES OF THREE TROPICAL WAVES BETWEEN 125W AND 138W ARE
BECOMING DIFFICULT TO DISCERN FROM WAVE TO WAVE AND ARE
PRODUCING AN ELONGATED AND EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DESCRIBED BELOW.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
08N87W TO 05N98W TO 09N126W TO 10N134W TO LOW PRES NEAR
08N138.5W TO BEYOND 09N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 03.5N TO 06.5N E OF 79W TO COAST OF
COLOMBIA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
NOTED FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 118W AND 142W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM N AND 90 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 95W AND
102W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS DEVELOPING ACROSS N AND NW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY...AND MERGING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH N
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO EXTEND FROM THE W COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO 160W. STRONG WESTERLIES AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT NORTHWARD BETWEEN 120W AND 140W AS A SHORT
WAVE IS MOVING NE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH...AND
REDUCING THE UPPER WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE BROAD ZONE OF DEEP
CONVECTION OCCURRING BETWEEN 118W AND 142W. THIS IS ALLOWING
UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THIS AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...
NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 22N124W. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD N AND NE THROUGH SAT AS A TUTT
LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 13N106W. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN 110W AND 135W FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. IN FACT...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS TO BECOME STRUNG OUT ACROSS THIS
AREA BETWEEN 120W AND 140W THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND SLOW AND
GRADUAL IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF ANY OF THESE LOWS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS.

THE STRONG NE PACIFIC EXTENDING S INTO THE LOCAL AREA THE PAST
FEW DAYS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA...LEAVING ONLY
A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS CENTERED ON A 1015 MB HIGH
NEAR 28N122W AND EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 23N111W. A MODEST PRES
GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TRADES S OF
17N AND W OF 110W...WITH LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADES BEING
INFLUENCED BY THE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS W OF 130W. SEAS ACROSS
THIS REGION ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT...EXCEPT 7 TO 9 FT W OF
130W. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES HAVE RETURN TO THE AREA E OF 110W
WITH THE PASSAGE OF RECENT TROPICAL WAVES...AND EXTEND N TO 15N
OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST.

GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ALSO PRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS TO 25 KT
AT NIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. NE TO E WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WERE 20-25 KT THIS MORNING AND EXTENDED W
TO 90W...WITH SEAS 7 TO 9 FT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021612
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF OF 90W MOVING W 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W-103W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 113W MOVING W 15-20 KT.

SERIES OF THREE TROPICAL WAVES BETWEEN 125W AND 138W ARE
BECOMING DIFFICULT TO DISCERN FROM WAVE TO WAVE AND ARE
PRODUCING AN ELONGATED AND EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DESCRIBED BELOW.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
08N87W TO 05N98W TO 09N126W TO 10N134W TO LOW PRES NEAR
08N138.5W TO BEYOND 09N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 03.5N TO 06.5N E OF 79W TO COAST OF
COLOMBIA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
NOTED FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 118W AND 142W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM N AND 90 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 95W AND
102W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS DEVELOPING ACROSS N AND NW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY...AND MERGING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH N
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO EXTEND FROM THE W COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO 160W. STRONG WESTERLIES AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT NORTHWARD BETWEEN 120W AND 140W AS A SHORT
WAVE IS MOVING NE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH...AND
REDUCING THE UPPER WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE BROAD ZONE OF DEEP
CONVECTION OCCURRING BETWEEN 118W AND 142W. THIS IS ALLOWING
UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THIS AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...
NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 22N124W. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD N AND NE THROUGH SAT AS A TUTT
LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 13N106W. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN 110W AND 135W FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. IN FACT...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS TO BECOME STRUNG OUT ACROSS THIS
AREA BETWEEN 120W AND 140W THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND SLOW AND
GRADUAL IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF ANY OF THESE LOWS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS.

THE STRONG NE PACIFIC EXTENDING S INTO THE LOCAL AREA THE PAST
FEW DAYS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA...LEAVING ONLY
A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS CENTERED ON A 1015 MB HIGH
NEAR 28N122W AND EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 23N111W. A MODEST PRES
GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TRADES S OF
17N AND W OF 110W...WITH LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADES BEING
INFLUENCED BY THE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS W OF 130W. SEAS ACROSS
THIS REGION ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT...EXCEPT 7 TO 9 FT W OF
130W. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES HAVE RETURN TO THE AREA E OF 110W
WITH THE PASSAGE OF RECENT TROPICAL WAVES...AND EXTEND N TO 15N
OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST.

GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ALSO PRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS TO 25 KT
AT NIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. NE TO E WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WERE 20-25 KT THIS MORNING AND EXTENDED W
TO 90W...WITH SEAS 7 TO 9 FT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
STRIPLING


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 021443
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST FRI JUL 3 2015

...CHAN-HOM BECOMES A TYPHOON...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 148.3E

ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 385 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-SOUTHWEST...250 DEGREES AT 23 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON STORM CHAN-HOM IS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.3 DEGREES
EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 23 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH TODAY WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED LATER THIS MORNING. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT ON A TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH
THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TYPHOON
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 AM.

$$

ZIOBRO



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 021443
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST FRI JUL 3 2015

...CHAN-HOM BECOMES A TYPHOON...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 148.3E

ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 385 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-SOUTHWEST...250 DEGREES AT 23 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON STORM CHAN-HOM IS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.3 DEGREES
EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 23 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH TODAY WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED LATER THIS MORNING. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT ON A TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH
THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TYPHOON
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 AM.

$$

ZIOBRO


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 021254
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM QUICKLY MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE... ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.3N 148.9E

ABOUT 355 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 395 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-SOUTHWEST...255 DEGREES AT 23 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.9 DEGREES
EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 23 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED FRIDAY MORNING. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT ON A TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH
THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

ZIOBRO



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 021254
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM QUICKLY MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE... ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.3N 148.9E

ABOUT 355 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 395 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-SOUTHWEST...255 DEGREES AT 23 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.9 DEGREES
EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 23 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED FRIDAY MORNING. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT ON A TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH
THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

ZIOBRO


000
ACPN50 PHFO 021155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST THU JUL 2 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

POWELL








000
ACPN50 PHFO 021155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST THU JUL 2 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

POWELL







000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021146
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of disturbed weather has formed about 1700 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.  Environmental conditions
are forecast to become conducive for gradual development of this
system over the next several days while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021146
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of disturbed weather has formed about 1700 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.  Environmental conditions
are forecast to become conducive for gradual development of this
system over the next several days while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021146
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of disturbed weather has formed about 1700 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.  Environmental conditions
are forecast to become conducive for gradual development of this
system over the next several days while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021146
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of disturbed weather has formed about 1700 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.  Environmental conditions
are forecast to become conducive for gradual development of this
system over the next several days while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 021140
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT JUEVES 2 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 021140
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT JUEVES 2 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN



000
ABNT20 KNHC 021137
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABNT20 KNHC 021137
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
AXNT20 KNHC 021111
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST AT 24 HOURS...BASED ON THE
FORECAST FOR 02/0600 UTC...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...
FROM 11.5N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 11 FEET TO 17 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 60 NM
TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N28W 8N36W 10N43W...IN THE ITCZ. THE
WAVE IS APPARENT IN A LONG-TERM OF SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W FROM 11N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD...PASSING ACROSS JAMAICA...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF
THE WAVE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THE WAVE FROM
13N TO 16N. 600 MB TO 800 MB LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS FROM 17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
THE WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OF AN ALREADY-EXISTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHOSE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI
AND JAMAICA.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS CUTTING
THROUGH HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N20W TO
8N25W 8N34W AND 8N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO
11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N28W 8N36W 10N43W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
MEXICO NEAR 21N103W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES
AWAY FROM MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD AN EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH. THE TROUGH STARTS IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEN IT CROSSES NORTHWESTERN CUBA...AND IT
REACHES ITS BASE NEAR 13N81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 86W AND 90W.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 92W/93W FROM 18N IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 23N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
MEXICO FROM 23N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 94W AND 98W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS
LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT NEAR THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF CUBA.
THIS TROUGH IS PART OF THE ENERGY THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CURRENT 86W/87W TROPICAL WAVE AS THE WAVE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE
WESTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A
TROUGH ALSO SPANS CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND 88W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA/ALSO IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 80W

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH A 24N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA AND
CUBA...AND BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. EARLIER PRECIPITATION
THAT WAS OCCURRING IN HISPANIOLA APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED AND
DISSIPATED FOR THE MOMENT.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE IDEA THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST JUST ENOUGH IN ORDER TO PUSH
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT MORE THAN ONE INVERTED TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOUR PERIOD.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GREATER ANTILLES NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W...TO
A 24N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO
15N75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
60W AND 77W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE AREAS OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 26N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IS
FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 45W AND 53W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
24N TO 31N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE
IN THE AREA OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N20W...TO 31N28W...TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 33N49W...THROUGH 30N66W...TO 30N66W...ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 021111
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST AT 24 HOURS...BASED ON THE
FORECAST FOR 02/0600 UTC...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...
FROM 11.5N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 11 FEET TO 17 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 60 NM
TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N28W 8N36W 10N43W...IN THE ITCZ. THE
WAVE IS APPARENT IN A LONG-TERM OF SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W FROM 11N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD...PASSING ACROSS JAMAICA...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF
THE WAVE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THE WAVE FROM
13N TO 16N. 600 MB TO 800 MB LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS FROM 17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
THE WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OF AN ALREADY-EXISTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHOSE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI
AND JAMAICA.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS CUTTING
THROUGH HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N20W TO
8N25W 8N34W AND 8N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO
11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N28W 8N36W 10N43W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
MEXICO NEAR 21N103W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES
AWAY FROM MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD AN EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH. THE TROUGH STARTS IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEN IT CROSSES NORTHWESTERN CUBA...AND IT
REACHES ITS BASE NEAR 13N81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 86W AND 90W.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 92W/93W FROM 18N IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 23N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
MEXICO FROM 23N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 94W AND 98W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS
LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT NEAR THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF CUBA.
THIS TROUGH IS PART OF THE ENERGY THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CURRENT 86W/87W TROPICAL WAVE AS THE WAVE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE
WESTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A
TROUGH ALSO SPANS CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND 88W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA/ALSO IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 80W

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH A 24N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA AND
CUBA...AND BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. EARLIER PRECIPITATION
THAT WAS OCCURRING IN HISPANIOLA APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED AND
DISSIPATED FOR THE MOMENT.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE IDEA THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST JUST ENOUGH IN ORDER TO PUSH
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT MORE THAN ONE INVERTED TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOUR PERIOD.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GREATER ANTILLES NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W...TO
A 24N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO
15N75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
60W AND 77W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE AREAS OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 26N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IS
FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 45W AND 53W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
24N TO 31N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE
IN THE AREA OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N20W...TO 31N28W...TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 33N49W...THROUGH 30N66W...TO 30N66W...ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 021111
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST AT 24 HOURS...BASED ON THE
FORECAST FOR 02/0600 UTC...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...
FROM 11.5N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 11 FEET TO 17 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 60 NM
TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N28W 8N36W 10N43W...IN THE ITCZ. THE
WAVE IS APPARENT IN A LONG-TERM OF SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W FROM 11N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD...PASSING ACROSS JAMAICA...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF
THE WAVE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THE WAVE FROM
13N TO 16N. 600 MB TO 800 MB LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS FROM 17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
THE WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OF AN ALREADY-EXISTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHOSE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI
AND JAMAICA.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS CUTTING
THROUGH HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N20W TO
8N25W 8N34W AND 8N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO
11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N28W 8N36W 10N43W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
MEXICO NEAR 21N103W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES
AWAY FROM MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD AN EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH. THE TROUGH STARTS IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEN IT CROSSES NORTHWESTERN CUBA...AND IT
REACHES ITS BASE NEAR 13N81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 86W AND 90W.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 92W/93W FROM 18N IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 23N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
MEXICO FROM 23N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 94W AND 98W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS
LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT NEAR THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF CUBA.
THIS TROUGH IS PART OF THE ENERGY THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CURRENT 86W/87W TROPICAL WAVE AS THE WAVE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE
WESTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A
TROUGH ALSO SPANS CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND 88W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA/ALSO IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 80W

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH A 24N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA AND
CUBA...AND BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. EARLIER PRECIPITATION
THAT WAS OCCURRING IN HISPANIOLA APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED AND
DISSIPATED FOR THE MOMENT.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE IDEA THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST JUST ENOUGH IN ORDER TO PUSH
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT MORE THAN ONE INVERTED TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOUR PERIOD.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GREATER ANTILLES NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W...TO
A 24N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO
15N75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
60W AND 77W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE AREAS OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 26N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IS
FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 45W AND 53W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
24N TO 31N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE
IN THE AREA OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N20W...TO 31N28W...TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 33N49W...THROUGH 30N66W...TO 30N66W...ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 021111
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST AT 24 HOURS...BASED ON THE
FORECAST FOR 02/0600 UTC...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...
FROM 11.5N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 11 FEET TO 17 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 60 NM
TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N28W 8N36W 10N43W...IN THE ITCZ. THE
WAVE IS APPARENT IN A LONG-TERM OF SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W FROM 11N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD...PASSING ACROSS JAMAICA...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF
THE WAVE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THE WAVE FROM
13N TO 16N. 600 MB TO 800 MB LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS FROM 17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
THE WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OF AN ALREADY-EXISTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHOSE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI
AND JAMAICA.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS CUTTING
THROUGH HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N20W TO
8N25W 8N34W AND 8N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO
11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N28W 8N36W 10N43W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
MEXICO NEAR 21N103W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES
AWAY FROM MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD AN EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH. THE TROUGH STARTS IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEN IT CROSSES NORTHWESTERN CUBA...AND IT
REACHES ITS BASE NEAR 13N81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 86W AND 90W.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 92W/93W FROM 18N IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 23N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
MEXICO FROM 23N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 94W AND 98W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS
LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT NEAR THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF CUBA.
THIS TROUGH IS PART OF THE ENERGY THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CURRENT 86W/87W TROPICAL WAVE AS THE WAVE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE
WESTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A
TROUGH ALSO SPANS CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND 88W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA/ALSO IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 80W

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH A 24N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA AND
CUBA...AND BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. EARLIER PRECIPITATION
THAT WAS OCCURRING IN HISPANIOLA APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED AND
DISSIPATED FOR THE MOMENT.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE IDEA THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST JUST ENOUGH IN ORDER TO PUSH
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT MORE THAN ONE INVERTED TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOUR PERIOD.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GREATER ANTILLES NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W...TO
A 24N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO
15N75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
60W AND 77W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE AREAS OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 26N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IS
FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 45W AND 53W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
24N TO 31N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE
IN THE AREA OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N20W...TO 31N28W...TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 33N49W...THROUGH 30N66W...TO 30N66W...ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020904
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM QUICKLY MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 150.0E

ABOUT 255 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND ROTA
ABOUT 420 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-SOUTHWEST...255 DEGREES AT 23 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.0 DEGREES
EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 23 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED FRIDAY MORNING. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT ON A TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH
THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 200 AM FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

ZIOBRO


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020904
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM QUICKLY MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 150.0E

ABOUT 255 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND ROTA
ABOUT 420 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-SOUTHWEST...255 DEGREES AT 23 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.0 DEGREES
EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 23 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED FRIDAY MORNING. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT ON A TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH
THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 200 AM FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

ZIOBRO


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020904
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM QUICKLY MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 150.0E

ABOUT 255 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND ROTA
ABOUT 420 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-SOUTHWEST...255 DEGREES AT 23 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.0 DEGREES
EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 23 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED FRIDAY MORNING. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT ON A TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH
THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 200 AM FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

ZIOBRO



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020902
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 9N ALONG 87W MOVING W 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 8N TO 15N ALONG 100W MOVING W 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 8N TO 16N ALONG 110W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 6N TO 14N ALONG 130W/131W IS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ RELATED
TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 7N86W TO 5N105W TO 7N110W TO 8N130 9N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN 116W-140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 28N137W
TO ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 29N128W TO THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W-125W. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF THE TROUGH...WITH A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND 10N120W. DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN 116W-140W.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF
16N W OF 110W. AN AREA OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT FROM 10N-16N W OF
125W. OTHERWISE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ELY WINDS 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS WILL TO 8
FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT THROUGH
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER THIS MORNING...THEN DECREASE TO 20
KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT FRI NIGHT.

$$
DGS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020902
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 9N ALONG 87W MOVING W 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 8N TO 15N ALONG 100W MOVING W 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 8N TO 16N ALONG 110W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 6N TO 14N ALONG 130W/131W IS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ RELATED
TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 7N86W TO 5N105W TO 7N110W TO 8N130 9N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN 116W-140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 28N137W
TO ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 29N128W TO THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W-125W. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF THE TROUGH...WITH A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND 10N120W. DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN 116W-140W.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF
16N W OF 110W. AN AREA OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT FROM 10N-16N W OF
125W. OTHERWISE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ELY WINDS 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS WILL TO 8
FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT THROUGH
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER THIS MORNING...THEN DECREASE TO 20
KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT FRI NIGHT.

$$
DGS



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020655
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
500 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM QUICKLY MOVING WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 150.5E

ABOUT 240 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 430 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND ROTA
ABOUT 445 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.5
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 18 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT ON A TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT
THROUGH THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 1100 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020655
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
500 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM QUICKLY MOVING WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 150.5E

ABOUT 240 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 430 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND ROTA
ABOUT 445 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.5
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 18 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT ON A TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT
THROUGH THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 1100 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 020559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST AT 30 HOURS...BASED ON THE
FORECAST FOR 02/0000 UTC...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...
FROM 11.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 11 FEET TO 17 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W FROM 12N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A 1014 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 31W AND
38W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 9N TO
10N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 10N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD...PASSING BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA...MOVING WESTWARD
20 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA OF THE WAVE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THE WAVE
FROM 13N TO 16N. 600 MB TO 800 MB LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. THE WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OF AN
ALREADY-EXISTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHOSE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE
WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS CUTTING
THROUGH HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 20N13W TO 16N20W AND 9N27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N34W
TO 8N44W...INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF FRENCH GUIANA AND
SURINAME...EVENTUALLY TO 5N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM
6N TO 10N BETWEEN 11W AND 18W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
MEXICO NEAR 21N103W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES
AWAY FROM MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE BASE OF
A TROUGH ORIGINATES IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH STARTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
IT CROSSES NORTHWESTERN CUBA...AND IT REACHES ITS BASE NEAR
13N81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EARLIER
RAINSHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA HAVE WEAKENED AND
DISSIPATED. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23N91W 20N92W 18N92W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS
LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 28N86W...TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EVERYWHERE...
EXCEPT NEAR THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF CUBA.
THIS TROUGH IS PART OF THE ENERGY THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CURRENT 84W/85W TROPICAL WAVE AS THE WAVE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE
WESTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A
TROUGH ALSO SPANS CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND 88W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA/ALSO IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 80W

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH A 24N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA AND CUBA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE IDEA THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST JUST ENOUGH IN ORDER TO PUSH
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT MORE THAN ONE INVERTED TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOUR PERIOD.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GREATER ANTILLES NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W...TO
A 24N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO
15N75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
THAT WAS OCCURRING INLAND IN HISPANIOLA HAS WEAKENED AND
DISSIPATED. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 54W AND
77W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N48W 28N52W 25N57W. A MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N42W.
ISOLATED MODERATE IS FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 24N TO 31N BETWEEN 32W AND 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N50W...THROUGH 32N59W...TO 30N66W...ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
ACPN50 PHFO 020555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST WED JUL 1 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

$$

POWELL







000
ACPN50 PHFO 020555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST WED JUL 1 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

$$

POWELL







000
ACPN50 PHFO 020555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST WED JUL 1 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

$$

POWELL







000
ACPN50 PHFO 020555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST WED JUL 1 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

$$

POWELL







000
ACPN50 PHFO 020555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST WED JUL 1 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

$$

POWELL






000
ACPN50 PHFO 020555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST WED JUL 1 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

$$

POWELL







000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020501
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Upper-level
winds are forecast to become conducive for gradual development early
next week while the system moves slowly to the west or
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020501
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Upper-level
winds are forecast to become conducive for gradual development early
next week while the system moves slowly to the west or
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020501
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Upper-level
winds are forecast to become conducive for gradual development early
next week while the system moves slowly to the west or
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020501
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Upper-level
winds are forecast to become conducive for gradual development early
next week while the system moves slowly to the west or
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020501
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Upper-level
winds are forecast to become conducive for gradual development early
next week while the system moves slowly to the west or
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABNT20 KNHC 020500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABNT20 KNHC 020500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABNT20 KNHC 020500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABNT20 KNHC 020500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020335
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM INTENSIFYING NORTH OF CHUUK...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 151.9E

ABOUT 255 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK
ABOUT 495 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN...TINIAN AND ROTA
ABOUT 505 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.9
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 18 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT ON A TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT
THROUGH THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020335
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM INTENSIFYING NORTH OF CHUUK...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 151.9E

ABOUT 255 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK
ABOUT 495 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN...TINIAN AND ROTA
ABOUT 505 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.9
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 18 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT ON A TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT
THROUGH THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020335
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM INTENSIFYING NORTH OF CHUUK...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 151.9E

ABOUT 255 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK
ABOUT 495 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN...TINIAN AND ROTA
ABOUT 505 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.9
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 18 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT ON A TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT
THROUGH THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020335
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM INTENSIFYING NORTH OF CHUUK...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 151.9E

ABOUT 255 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK
ABOUT 495 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN...TINIAN AND ROTA
ABOUT 505 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.9
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 18 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT ON A TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT
THROUGH THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020335
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM INTENSIFYING NORTH OF CHUUK...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 151.9E

ABOUT 255 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK
ABOUT 495 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN...TINIAN AND ROTA
ABOUT 505 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.9
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 18 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT ON A TRACK THAT WOULD BRING IT
THROUGH THE MARIANAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020218
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 08N TO 14N NEAR 98W/99W NEAR THE EASTERN END
OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ALONG 21N. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 08N TO 15N NEAR 106W/107W IS DISPLAYED
RELATIVELY WELL IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
BASED ON ANIMATED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND GOES DERIVED
HIGH DENSITY WINDS...BUT SHOWS UP POORLY AT THE SURFACE BASED ON
A PAIR OF RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 05N TO 14N ALONG 129W/130W IS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ RELATED
TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE. THE
WAVE IS POORLY PRESENTED AT THE SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 07N95W TO 06N120W TO 09N130W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N
OF THE ITCZ AXIS...AND 270 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 115W
AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...WEAK 1013 MB LOW PRES W OF THE AREA NEAR
26N125W HAS INTERRUPTED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
AREA...AND IS MAINTAINING A LIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE
REGION...AS NOTED IN RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA...INCLUDING
ANOMALOUS SE FLOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WAS
CONFIRMED A SHIP OBSERVATION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING. A PAIR
OF EARLIER ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED SEAS OF GENERALLY 3 TO 5
FT OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE LOW IS RELATED TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SAME AREA WITH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH
REACHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO CABO
CORRIENTES. DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW WRAPPING INTO WEST AND SW SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.
FARTHER SOUTH...A PULSE OF STRONG GAP WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT...BUT WILL END QUICKLY AND NOT
RESULTS IN SEAS 8 FT OR HIGHER. LOOKING AHEAD...THE LOW WEST OF
THE AREA WILL DRIFT FARTHER WEST ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO BUILD NEAR 25N120W. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE RELATED TO AN UPPER IMPULSE N OF THE AREA WILL
ALLOW STRONG WINDS OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE FRI NIGHT.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS VERIFIED STRONG GAP
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...RELATED TO STRONG TRADE
WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. WIND CONVERGENCE ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS PLUME OF GAP WINDS WAS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE FROM 07N85W TO 10N90W. AN EARLIER
ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS TO 10 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
PLUME...BUT THIS LIKELY MISSED THE AREA OF PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS
WITHIN THE PLUME WHICH MAY HAVE BEEN IN EXCESS OF 11 FT. ANOTHER
PULSE OF GAP WINDS THROUGH PAPAGAYO IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SHORT
PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EARLIER PLUME PROPAGATES WEST AND
SUBSIDES. SIMILARLY FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 27N125W MOVING
WEST. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LOW AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT S OF 12N INTERACTING WITH WEAK
TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 135W. AN AREA OF
NE SWELL TO 8 FT IS NOTED ON AN EARLIER ALTIMETER FROM 10N TO
15N W OF 136W. WINDS WERE 20 TO 25 KT EARLIER...RELATED TO A AN
TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVE THROUGH THE THE AREA YESTERDAY...BUT
THESE WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE DIMINISHED AS NOTED IN A RECENT
ASCAT PASS. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT
ACCORDINGLY WITHIN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. ONLY MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ARE NOTED DUE TO A WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE
AREA...DUE THE PRESENCE OF THE DEEP LAYER LOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK
LOW PRES IN THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 130W AND
135W STARTING THU NIGHT INTO FRI...SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG
FLOW AND SEAS TO 8 FT BY LATE FRI NEAR THE LOW PRES.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020218
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 08N TO 14N NEAR 98W/99W NEAR THE EASTERN END
OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ALONG 21N. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 08N TO 15N NEAR 106W/107W IS DISPLAYED
RELATIVELY WELL IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
BASED ON ANIMATED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND GOES DERIVED
HIGH DENSITY WINDS...BUT SHOWS UP POORLY AT THE SURFACE BASED ON
A PAIR OF RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 05N TO 14N ALONG 129W/130W IS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ RELATED
TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE. THE
WAVE IS POORLY PRESENTED AT THE SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 07N95W TO 06N120W TO 09N130W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N
OF THE ITCZ AXIS...AND 270 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 115W
AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...WEAK 1013 MB LOW PRES W OF THE AREA NEAR
26N125W HAS INTERRUPTED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
AREA...AND IS MAINTAINING A LIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE
REGION...AS NOTED IN RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA...INCLUDING
ANOMALOUS SE FLOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WAS
CONFIRMED A SHIP OBSERVATION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING. A PAIR
OF EARLIER ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED SEAS OF GENERALLY 3 TO 5
FT OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE LOW IS RELATED TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SAME AREA WITH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH
REACHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO CABO
CORRIENTES. DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW WRAPPING INTO WEST AND SW SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.
FARTHER SOUTH...A PULSE OF STRONG GAP WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT...BUT WILL END QUICKLY AND NOT
RESULTS IN SEAS 8 FT OR HIGHER. LOOKING AHEAD...THE LOW WEST OF
THE AREA WILL DRIFT FARTHER WEST ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO BUILD NEAR 25N120W. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE RELATED TO AN UPPER IMPULSE N OF THE AREA WILL
ALLOW STRONG WINDS OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE FRI NIGHT.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS VERIFIED STRONG GAP
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...RELATED TO STRONG TRADE
WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. WIND CONVERGENCE ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS PLUME OF GAP WINDS WAS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE FROM 07N85W TO 10N90W. AN EARLIER
ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS TO 10 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
PLUME...BUT THIS LIKELY MISSED THE AREA OF PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS
WITHIN THE PLUME WHICH MAY HAVE BEEN IN EXCESS OF 11 FT. ANOTHER
PULSE OF GAP WINDS THROUGH PAPAGAYO IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SHORT
PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EARLIER PLUME PROPAGATES WEST AND
SUBSIDES. SIMILARLY FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 27N125W MOVING
WEST. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LOW AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT S OF 12N INTERACTING WITH WEAK
TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 135W. AN AREA OF
NE SWELL TO 8 FT IS NOTED ON AN EARLIER ALTIMETER FROM 10N TO
15N W OF 136W. WINDS WERE 20 TO 25 KT EARLIER...RELATED TO A AN
TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVE THROUGH THE THE AREA YESTERDAY...BUT
THESE WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE DIMINISHED AS NOTED IN A RECENT
ASCAT PASS. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT
ACCORDINGLY WITHIN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. ONLY MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ARE NOTED DUE TO A WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE
AREA...DUE THE PRESENCE OF THE DEEP LAYER LOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK
LOW PRES IN THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 130W AND
135W STARTING THU NIGHT INTO FRI...SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG
FLOW AND SEAS TO 8 FT BY LATE FRI NEAR THE LOW PRES.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020218
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 08N TO 14N NEAR 98W/99W NEAR THE EASTERN END
OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ALONG 21N. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 08N TO 15N NEAR 106W/107W IS DISPLAYED
RELATIVELY WELL IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
BASED ON ANIMATED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND GOES DERIVED
HIGH DENSITY WINDS...BUT SHOWS UP POORLY AT THE SURFACE BASED ON
A PAIR OF RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 05N TO 14N ALONG 129W/130W IS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ RELATED
TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE. THE
WAVE IS POORLY PRESENTED AT THE SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 07N95W TO 06N120W TO 09N130W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N
OF THE ITCZ AXIS...AND 270 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 115W
AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...WEAK 1013 MB LOW PRES W OF THE AREA NEAR
26N125W HAS INTERRUPTED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
AREA...AND IS MAINTAINING A LIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE
REGION...AS NOTED IN RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA...INCLUDING
ANOMALOUS SE FLOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WAS
CONFIRMED A SHIP OBSERVATION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING. A PAIR
OF EARLIER ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED SEAS OF GENERALLY 3 TO 5
FT OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE LOW IS RELATED TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SAME AREA WITH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH
REACHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO CABO
CORRIENTES. DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW WRAPPING INTO WEST AND SW SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.
FARTHER SOUTH...A PULSE OF STRONG GAP WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT...BUT WILL END QUICKLY AND NOT
RESULTS IN SEAS 8 FT OR HIGHER. LOOKING AHEAD...THE LOW WEST OF
THE AREA WILL DRIFT FARTHER WEST ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO BUILD NEAR 25N120W. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE RELATED TO AN UPPER IMPULSE N OF THE AREA WILL
ALLOW STRONG WINDS OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE FRI NIGHT.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS VERIFIED STRONG GAP
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...RELATED TO STRONG TRADE
WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. WIND CONVERGENCE ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS PLUME OF GAP WINDS WAS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE FROM 07N85W TO 10N90W. AN EARLIER
ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS TO 10 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
PLUME...BUT THIS LIKELY MISSED THE AREA OF PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS
WITHIN THE PLUME WHICH MAY HAVE BEEN IN EXCESS OF 11 FT. ANOTHER
PULSE OF GAP WINDS THROUGH PAPAGAYO IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SHORT
PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EARLIER PLUME PROPAGATES WEST AND
SUBSIDES. SIMILARLY FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 27N125W MOVING
WEST. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LOW AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT S OF 12N INTERACTING WITH WEAK
TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 135W. AN AREA OF
NE SWELL TO 8 FT IS NOTED ON AN EARLIER ALTIMETER FROM 10N TO
15N W OF 136W. WINDS WERE 20 TO 25 KT EARLIER...RELATED TO A AN
TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVE THROUGH THE THE AREA YESTERDAY...BUT
THESE WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE DIMINISHED AS NOTED IN A RECENT
ASCAT PASS. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT
ACCORDINGLY WITHIN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. ONLY MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ARE NOTED DUE TO A WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE
AREA...DUE THE PRESENCE OF THE DEEP LAYER LOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK
LOW PRES IN THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 130W AND
135W STARTING THU NIGHT INTO FRI...SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG
FLOW AND SEAS TO 8 FT BY LATE FRI NEAR THE LOW PRES.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020218
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 08N TO 14N NEAR 98W/99W NEAR THE EASTERN END
OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ALONG 21N. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 08N TO 15N NEAR 106W/107W IS DISPLAYED
RELATIVELY WELL IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
BASED ON ANIMATED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND GOES DERIVED
HIGH DENSITY WINDS...BUT SHOWS UP POORLY AT THE SURFACE BASED ON
A PAIR OF RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 05N TO 14N ALONG 129W/130W IS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ RELATED
TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE. THE
WAVE IS POORLY PRESENTED AT THE SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 07N95W TO 06N120W TO 09N130W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N
OF THE ITCZ AXIS...AND 270 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 115W
AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...WEAK 1013 MB LOW PRES W OF THE AREA NEAR
26N125W HAS INTERRUPTED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
AREA...AND IS MAINTAINING A LIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE
REGION...AS NOTED IN RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA...INCLUDING
ANOMALOUS SE FLOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WAS
CONFIRMED A SHIP OBSERVATION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING. A PAIR
OF EARLIER ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED SEAS OF GENERALLY 3 TO 5
FT OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE LOW IS RELATED TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SAME AREA WITH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH
REACHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO CABO
CORRIENTES. DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW WRAPPING INTO WEST AND SW SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.
FARTHER SOUTH...A PULSE OF STRONG GAP WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT...BUT WILL END QUICKLY AND NOT
RESULTS IN SEAS 8 FT OR HIGHER. LOOKING AHEAD...THE LOW WEST OF
THE AREA WILL DRIFT FARTHER WEST ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO BUILD NEAR 25N120W. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE RELATED TO AN UPPER IMPULSE N OF THE AREA WILL
ALLOW STRONG WINDS OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE FRI NIGHT.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS VERIFIED STRONG GAP
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...RELATED TO STRONG TRADE
WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. WIND CONVERGENCE ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS PLUME OF GAP WINDS WAS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE FROM 07N85W TO 10N90W. AN EARLIER
ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS TO 10 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
PLUME...BUT THIS LIKELY MISSED THE AREA OF PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS
WITHIN THE PLUME WHICH MAY HAVE BEEN IN EXCESS OF 11 FT. ANOTHER
PULSE OF GAP WINDS THROUGH PAPAGAYO IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SHORT
PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EARLIER PLUME PROPAGATES WEST AND
SUBSIDES. SIMILARLY FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 27N125W MOVING
WEST. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LOW AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT S OF 12N INTERACTING WITH WEAK
TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 135W. AN AREA OF
NE SWELL TO 8 FT IS NOTED ON AN EARLIER ALTIMETER FROM 10N TO
15N W OF 136W. WINDS WERE 20 TO 25 KT EARLIER...RELATED TO A AN
TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVE THROUGH THE THE AREA YESTERDAY...BUT
THESE WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE DIMINISHED AS NOTED IN A RECENT
ASCAT PASS. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT
ACCORDINGLY WITHIN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. ONLY MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ARE NOTED DUE TO A WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE
AREA...DUE THE PRESENCE OF THE DEEP LAYER LOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK
LOW PRES IN THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 130W AND
135W STARTING THU NIGHT INTO FRI...SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG
FLOW AND SEAS TO 8 FT BY LATE FRI NEAR THE LOW PRES.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020113
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 AM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM CONTINUING WEST TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 152.5E

ABOUT 260 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK
ABOUT 490 MILES NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 530 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN...TINIAN AND ROTA
ABOUT 545 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.5
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED BEFORE SLOWING DOWN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020113
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 AM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM CONTINUING WEST TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 152.5E

ABOUT 260 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK
ABOUT 490 MILES NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 530 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN...TINIAN AND ROTA
ABOUT 545 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.5
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED BEFORE SLOWING DOWN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020113
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 AM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM CONTINUING WEST TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 152.5E

ABOUT 260 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK
ABOUT 490 MILES NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 530 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN...TINIAN AND ROTA
ABOUT 545 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.5
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED BEFORE SLOWING DOWN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020113
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 AM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM CONTINUING WEST TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 152.5E

ABOUT 260 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK
ABOUT 490 MILES NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 530 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN...TINIAN AND ROTA
ABOUT 545 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.5
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED BEFORE SLOWING DOWN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020113
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 AM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM CONTINUING WEST TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 152.5E

ABOUT 260 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK
ABOUT 490 MILES NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 530 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN...TINIAN AND ROTA
ABOUT 545 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.5
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED BEFORE SLOWING DOWN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020113
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 AM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM CONTINUING WEST TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 152.5E

ABOUT 260 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK
ABOUT 490 MILES NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 530 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN...TINIAN AND ROTA
ABOUT 545 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.5
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED BEFORE SLOWING DOWN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
ACPN50 PHFO 012357
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST WED JUL 1 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

AG






000
ACPN50 PHFO 012357
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST WED JUL 1 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

AG





000
AXNT20 KNHC 012355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
11.5N-12.5N BETWEEN 74W-77W OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
THEN PULSING AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THESE WINDS ARE
GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 30W/31W FROM
5N-12N WITH A WEAK 1013 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 9N. THE
WAVE/LOW ARE MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED IN THE CENTRAL/W TROPICAL
ATLC ALONG 45W FROM 5N-11N MOVING 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THIS WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON THE 700 MB SIGNATURE AND
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IN ADDITION TO ANALYSIS
GUIDANCE. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. WAVE IS
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW DEEPENING THE WAVE AXIS AND ALSO
INTERACTING WITH THE ITCZ TO GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 40W-
44W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 73W/74W
FROM HAITI TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA MOVING W AT 20-25 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THIS WAVE
IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS HISPANIOLA. SEE
CARIBBEAN SECTION BELOW.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 83W S OF 18N TO
INLAND OVER COSTA RICA MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE THAT
ENCOMPASSES THE PREVIOUS TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WAVE HAS SPLIT WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE N WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS S OF
18N. SEE CARIBBEAN SECTION BELOW. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 13N21W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N27.
THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 8N33W ALONG 10N38W TO E OF
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N44W THEN RESUMES W OF THIS WAVE
NEAR 7N47W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N E OF 18W TO INLAND
OVER W AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE CONUS WITH A NARROW UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SE GEORGIA ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR PANAMA
CITY TO INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. THIS IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE NW GULF COAST BETWEEN MOBILE ALABAMA TO
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR
HAVANA AND EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO
FORT MYERS E OF 83W TO INLAND OVER THE S FLORIDA PENINSULA.
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY ARE OVER CUBA AND IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W
BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 25N96W WITH DENSE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 20N-25N W OF 93W TO OVER MEXICO. THE
DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. HOWEVER DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR...NO CONVECTION
IS BEING GENERATED. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NE TEXAS WITH A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N87W. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU THEN SHIFT N TO A
POSITION FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR HAVANA AND EXTENDS AN
UPPER TROUGH N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND S TO 16N81W. THIS IS
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF 20N W OF 81W TO OVER CUBA...THE YUCATAN...AND THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE N PORTION OF THE W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE
IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN/W
TROPICAL ATLC DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. AN
UPPER LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER E CUBA E OF 79W AND
HISPANIOLA. THIS ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVES THE W
CARIBBEAN LIMITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO NEAR GALE TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH END OF THE WEEK WITH
WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT PULSING AGAIN THU NIGHT AND FRI
NIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA THIS EVENING. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A THIRD
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT WITH A
FOURTH TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN ON SUN.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND
ARE BEING GENERATED BY AN UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF THE ISLAND AND
ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ISLAND INTO THE WEEKEND. LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUED THROUGH THU AFTERNOON THEN RETURN ON SAT
MORNING WHEN THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE ISLAND. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU AND RETURNING SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG SOUTH CAROLINA AND NE GEORGIA
COAST WHERE IT CROSSES SW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 29N75W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 73W AND
IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 71W-
77W. THE UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA IS CENTERED 24N70W AND IS
GENERATING THE ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N BETWEEN 61W-71W. A
REMNANT DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N13W TO
28N19W THEN BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERING
ALONG 25N25W 26N47W TO 29N55W. THE FRONT ABOVE IS WEAKENING AS
THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N51W
AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N61W TO ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT
AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE
DENSE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS N OF
THE ITCZ TO 24N/25N INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 012355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
11.5N-12.5N BETWEEN 74W-77W OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
THEN PULSING AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THESE WINDS ARE
GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 30W/31W FROM
5N-12N WITH A WEAK 1013 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 9N. THE
WAVE/LOW ARE MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED IN THE CENTRAL/W TROPICAL
ATLC ALONG 45W FROM 5N-11N MOVING 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THIS WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON THE 700 MB SIGNATURE AND
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IN ADDITION TO ANALYSIS
GUIDANCE. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. WAVE IS
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW DEEPENING THE WAVE AXIS AND ALSO
INTERACTING WITH THE ITCZ TO GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 40W-
44W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 73W/74W
FROM HAITI TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA MOVING W AT 20-25 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THIS WAVE
IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS HISPANIOLA. SEE
CARIBBEAN SECTION BELOW.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 83W S OF 18N TO
INLAND OVER COSTA RICA MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE THAT
ENCOMPASSES THE PREVIOUS TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WAVE HAS SPLIT WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE N WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS S OF
18N. SEE CARIBBEAN SECTION BELOW. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 13N21W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N27.
THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 8N33W ALONG 10N38W TO E OF
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N44W THEN RESUMES W OF THIS WAVE
NEAR 7N47W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N E OF 18W TO INLAND
OVER W AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE CONUS WITH A NARROW UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SE GEORGIA ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR PANAMA
CITY TO INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. THIS IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE NW GULF COAST BETWEEN MOBILE ALABAMA TO
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR
HAVANA AND EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO
FORT MYERS E OF 83W TO INLAND OVER THE S FLORIDA PENINSULA.
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY ARE OVER CUBA AND IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W
BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 25N96W WITH DENSE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 20N-25N W OF 93W TO OVER MEXICO. THE
DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. HOWEVER DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR...NO CONVECTION
IS BEING GENERATED. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NE TEXAS WITH A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N87W. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU THEN SHIFT N TO A
POSITION FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR HAVANA AND EXTENDS AN
UPPER TROUGH N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND S TO 16N81W. THIS IS
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF 20N W OF 81W TO OVER CUBA...THE YUCATAN...AND THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE N PORTION OF THE W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE
IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN/W
TROPICAL ATLC DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. AN
UPPER LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER E CUBA E OF 79W AND
HISPANIOLA. THIS ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVES THE W
CARIBBEAN LIMITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO NEAR GALE TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH END OF THE WEEK WITH
WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT PULSING AGAIN THU NIGHT AND FRI
NIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA THIS EVENING. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A THIRD
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT WITH A
FOURTH TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN ON SUN.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND
ARE BEING GENERATED BY AN UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF THE ISLAND AND
ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ISLAND INTO THE WEEKEND. LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUED THROUGH THU AFTERNOON THEN RETURN ON SAT
MORNING WHEN THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE ISLAND. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU AND RETURNING SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG SOUTH CAROLINA AND NE GEORGIA
COAST WHERE IT CROSSES SW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 29N75W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 73W AND
IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 71W-
77W. THE UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA IS CENTERED 24N70W AND IS
GENERATING THE ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N BETWEEN 61W-71W. A
REMNANT DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N13W TO
28N19W THEN BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERING
ALONG 25N25W 26N47W TO 29N55W. THE FRONT ABOVE IS WEAKENING AS
THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N51W
AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N61W TO ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT
AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE
DENSE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS N OF
THE ITCZ TO 24N/25N INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 012355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
11.5N-12.5N BETWEEN 74W-77W OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
THEN PULSING AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THESE WINDS ARE
GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 30W/31W FROM
5N-12N WITH A WEAK 1013 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 9N. THE
WAVE/LOW ARE MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED IN THE CENTRAL/W TROPICAL
ATLC ALONG 45W FROM 5N-11N MOVING 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THIS WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON THE 700 MB SIGNATURE AND
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IN ADDITION TO ANALYSIS
GUIDANCE. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. WAVE IS
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW DEEPENING THE WAVE AXIS AND ALSO
INTERACTING WITH THE ITCZ TO GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 40W-
44W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 73W/74W
FROM HAITI TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA MOVING W AT 20-25 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THIS WAVE
IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS HISPANIOLA. SEE
CARIBBEAN SECTION BELOW.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 83W S OF 18N TO
INLAND OVER COSTA RICA MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE THAT
ENCOMPASSES THE PREVIOUS TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WAVE HAS SPLIT WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE N WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS S OF
18N. SEE CARIBBEAN SECTION BELOW. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 13N21W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N27.
THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 8N33W ALONG 10N38W TO E OF
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N44W THEN RESUMES W OF THIS WAVE
NEAR 7N47W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N E OF 18W TO INLAND
OVER W AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE CONUS WITH A NARROW UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SE GEORGIA ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR PANAMA
CITY TO INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. THIS IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE NW GULF COAST BETWEEN MOBILE ALABAMA TO
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR
HAVANA AND EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO
FORT MYERS E OF 83W TO INLAND OVER THE S FLORIDA PENINSULA.
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY ARE OVER CUBA AND IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W
BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 25N96W WITH DENSE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 20N-25N W OF 93W TO OVER MEXICO. THE
DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. HOWEVER DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR...NO CONVECTION
IS BEING GENERATED. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NE TEXAS WITH A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N87W. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU THEN SHIFT N TO A
POSITION FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR HAVANA AND EXTENDS AN
UPPER TROUGH N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND S TO 16N81W. THIS IS
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF 20N W OF 81W TO OVER CUBA...THE YUCATAN...AND THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE N PORTION OF THE W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE
IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN/W
TROPICAL ATLC DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. AN
UPPER LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER E CUBA E OF 79W AND
HISPANIOLA. THIS ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVES THE W
CARIBBEAN LIMITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO NEAR GALE TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH END OF THE WEEK WITH
WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT PULSING AGAIN THU NIGHT AND FRI
NIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA THIS EVENING. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A THIRD
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT WITH A
FOURTH TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN ON SUN.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND
ARE BEING GENERATED BY AN UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF THE ISLAND AND
ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ISLAND INTO THE WEEKEND. LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUED THROUGH THU AFTERNOON THEN RETURN ON SAT
MORNING WHEN THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE ISLAND. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU AND RETURNING SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG SOUTH CAROLINA AND NE GEORGIA
COAST WHERE IT CROSSES SW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 29N75W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 73W AND
IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 71W-
77W. THE UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA IS CENTERED 24N70W AND IS
GENERATING THE ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N BETWEEN 61W-71W. A
REMNANT DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N13W TO
28N19W THEN BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERING
ALONG 25N25W 26N47W TO 29N55W. THE FRONT ABOVE IS WEAKENING AS
THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N51W
AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N61W TO ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT
AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE
DENSE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS N OF
THE ITCZ TO 24N/25N INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 012355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
11.5N-12.5N BETWEEN 74W-77W OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
THEN PULSING AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THESE WINDS ARE
GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 30W/31W FROM
5N-12N WITH A WEAK 1013 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 9N. THE
WAVE/LOW ARE MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED IN THE CENTRAL/W TROPICAL
ATLC ALONG 45W FROM 5N-11N MOVING 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THIS WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON THE 700 MB SIGNATURE AND
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IN ADDITION TO ANALYSIS
GUIDANCE. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. WAVE IS
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW DEEPENING THE WAVE AXIS AND ALSO
INTERACTING WITH THE ITCZ TO GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 40W-
44W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 73W/74W
FROM HAITI TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA MOVING W AT 20-25 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THIS WAVE
IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS HISPANIOLA. SEE
CARIBBEAN SECTION BELOW.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 83W S OF 18N TO
INLAND OVER COSTA RICA MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE THAT
ENCOMPASSES THE PREVIOUS TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WAVE HAS SPLIT WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE N WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS S OF
18N. SEE CARIBBEAN SECTION BELOW. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 13N21W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N27.
THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 8N33W ALONG 10N38W TO E OF
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N44W THEN RESUMES W OF THIS WAVE
NEAR 7N47W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N E OF 18W TO INLAND
OVER W AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE CONUS WITH A NARROW UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SE GEORGIA ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR PANAMA
CITY TO INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. THIS IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE NW GULF COAST BETWEEN MOBILE ALABAMA TO
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR
HAVANA AND EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO
FORT MYERS E OF 83W TO INLAND OVER THE S FLORIDA PENINSULA.
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY ARE OVER CUBA AND IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W
BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 25N96W WITH DENSE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 20N-25N W OF 93W TO OVER MEXICO. THE
DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. HOWEVER DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR...NO CONVECTION
IS BEING GENERATED. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NE TEXAS WITH A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N87W. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU THEN SHIFT N TO A
POSITION FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR HAVANA AND EXTENDS AN
UPPER TROUGH N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND S TO 16N81W. THIS IS
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF 20N W OF 81W TO OVER CUBA...THE YUCATAN...AND THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE N PORTION OF THE W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE
IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN/W
TROPICAL ATLC DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. AN
UPPER LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER E CUBA E OF 79W AND
HISPANIOLA. THIS ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVES THE W
CARIBBEAN LIMITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO NEAR GALE TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH END OF THE WEEK WITH
WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT PULSING AGAIN THU NIGHT AND FRI
NIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA THIS EVENING. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A THIRD
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT WITH A
FOURTH TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN ON SUN.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND
ARE BEING GENERATED BY AN UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF THE ISLAND AND
ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ISLAND INTO THE WEEKEND. LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUED THROUGH THU AFTERNOON THEN RETURN ON SAT
MORNING WHEN THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE ISLAND. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU AND RETURNING SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG SOUTH CAROLINA AND NE GEORGIA
COAST WHERE IT CROSSES SW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 29N75W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 73W AND
IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 71W-
77W. THE UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA IS CENTERED 24N70W AND IS
GENERATING THE ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N BETWEEN 61W-71W. A
REMNANT DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N13W TO
28N19W THEN BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERING
ALONG 25N25W 26N47W TO 29N55W. THE FRONT ABOVE IS WEAKENING AS
THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N51W
AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N61W TO ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT
AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE
DENSE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS N OF
THE ITCZ TO 24N/25N INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 012311
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Upper-level
winds are forecast to become conducive for gradual development early
next week while the system moves slowly to the west or
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 012311
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Upper-level
winds are forecast to become conducive for gradual development early
next week while the system moves slowly to the west or
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 012311
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Upper-level
winds are forecast to become conducive for gradual development early
next week while the system moves slowly to the west or
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 012311
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Upper-level
winds are forecast to become conducive for gradual development early
next week while the system moves slowly to the west or
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 012310
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT MIERCOLES 1 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 012310
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT MIERCOLES 1 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 012310
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT MIERCOLES 1 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 012310
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT MIERCOLES 1 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH



000
ABNT20 KNHC 012309
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABNT20 KNHC 012309
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABNT20 KNHC 012309
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012200
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 07N TO 13N NEAR 98W/99W NEAR THE EASTERN END
OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ALONG 21N. THIS ALONG
WITH LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES MOVING OFF THE MEXICAN COAST ARE
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN
END OF THE WAVE FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. THE WAVE
DOES NOT SHOW UP WELL IN SURFACE OR LOWER LEVEL DATA AND
POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 09N TO 15N NEAR 105W/106W IS DISPLAYED
RELATIVELY WELL IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
BASED ON ANIMATED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND GOES DERIVED
HIGH DENSITY WINDS...BUT SHOWS UP POORLY AT THE SURFACE BASED ON
A PAIR OF RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 05N TO 14N ALONG 128W/129W IS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ RELATED
TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE. THE
WAVE IS POORLY PRESENTED AT THE SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 05N105W TO 10N135W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ
AXIS...AND 270 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...WEAK 1013 MB LOW PRES W OF THE AREA NEAR
16N125W HAS INTERRUPTED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
AREA...AND IS MAINTAINING A LIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE
REGION...AS NOTED IN RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA...INCLUDING
ANOMALOUS SE FLOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WAS
CONFIRMED A SHIP OBSERVATION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING. A PAIR
OF ALTIMETER PASSES FROM 11 UTC AND 13 UTC INDICATED SEAS OF
GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE LOW IS
RELATED TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SAME AREA WITH A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH REACHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA TO CABO CORRIENTES. DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW WRAPPING INTO
WEST AND SW SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REGION. FARTHER SOUTH...A PULSE OF STRONG GAP WINDS
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT...BUT WILL
END QUICKLY AND NOT RESULTS IN SEAS 8 FT OR HIGHER. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE LOW WEST OF THE AREA WILL DRIFT FARTHER WEST
ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD NEAR 25N120W. A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE RELATED TO AN UPPER
IMPULSE N OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW STRONG WINDS OFF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE FRI NIGHT.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...A 16 UTC ASCAT PASS VERIFIED STRONG GAP
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...RELATED TO STRONG TRADE
WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. WIND CONVERGENCE ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS PLUME OF GAP WINDS WAS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE FROM 07N85W TO 10N90W. AN EARLIER
ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS TO 10 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
PLUME...BUT THIS LIKELY MISSED THE AREA OF PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS
WITHIN THE PLUME WHICH MAY HAVE BEEN IN EXCESS OF 11 FT. ANOTHER
PULSE OF GAP WINDS THROUGH PAPAGAYO IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SHORT
PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EARLIER PLUME PROPAGATES WEST AND
SUBSIDES. SIMILARLY FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 27N125W MOVING
WEST. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LOW AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT S OF 12N INTERACTING WITH WEAK
TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 135W. AN AREA OF
NE SWELL TO 8 FT IS NOTED ON AN EARLIER ALTIMETER FROM 10N TO
15N W OF 136W. WINDS WERE 20 TO 25 KT EARLIER...RELATED TO A AN
TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVE THROUGH THE THE AREA YESTERDAY...BUT
THESE WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE DIMINISHED AS NOTED IN A RECENT
ASCAT PASS. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT
ACCORDINGLY WITHIN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. ONLY MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ARE NOTED DUE TO A WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE
AREA...DUE THE PRESENCE OF THE DEEP LAYER LOW. AS THE UPPER LOW
WILL DRIFT WEST THROUGH LATE WEEK...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES IN THE DEEP TROPICS. THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST TWO AREAS
OF LOW PRES ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 130W THROUGH LATE FRI...THE
LATEST GFS IS FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
DOES NOT INCLUDE ANY CHANGES YET IN THIS AREA THROUGH 48
HOURS...BUT THIS WILL BE REVIEWED WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012200
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 07N TO 13N NEAR 98W/99W NEAR THE EASTERN END
OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ALONG 21N. THIS ALONG
WITH LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES MOVING OFF THE MEXICAN COAST ARE
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN
END OF THE WAVE FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. THE WAVE
DOES NOT SHOW UP WELL IN SURFACE OR LOWER LEVEL DATA AND
POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 09N TO 15N NEAR 105W/106W IS DISPLAYED
RELATIVELY WELL IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
BASED ON ANIMATED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND GOES DERIVED
HIGH DENSITY WINDS...BUT SHOWS UP POORLY AT THE SURFACE BASED ON
A PAIR OF RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 05N TO 14N ALONG 128W/129W IS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ RELATED
TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE. THE
WAVE IS POORLY PRESENTED AT THE SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 05N105W TO 10N135W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ
AXIS...AND 270 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...WEAK 1013 MB LOW PRES W OF THE AREA NEAR
16N125W HAS INTERRUPTED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
AREA...AND IS MAINTAINING A LIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE
REGION...AS NOTED IN RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA...INCLUDING
ANOMALOUS SE FLOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WAS
CONFIRMED A SHIP OBSERVATION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING. A PAIR
OF ALTIMETER PASSES FROM 11 UTC AND 13 UTC INDICATED SEAS OF
GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE LOW IS
RELATED TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SAME AREA WITH A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH REACHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA TO CABO CORRIENTES. DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW WRAPPING INTO
WEST AND SW SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REGION. FARTHER SOUTH...A PULSE OF STRONG GAP WINDS
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT...BUT WILL
END QUICKLY AND NOT RESULTS IN SEAS 8 FT OR HIGHER. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE LOW WEST OF THE AREA WILL DRIFT FARTHER WEST
ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD NEAR 25N120W. A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE RELATED TO AN UPPER
IMPULSE N OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW STRONG WINDS OFF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE FRI NIGHT.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...A 16 UTC ASCAT PASS VERIFIED STRONG GAP
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...RELATED TO STRONG TRADE
WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. WIND CONVERGENCE ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS PLUME OF GAP WINDS WAS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE FROM 07N85W TO 10N90W. AN EARLIER
ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS TO 10 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
PLUME...BUT THIS LIKELY MISSED THE AREA OF PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS
WITHIN THE PLUME WHICH MAY HAVE BEEN IN EXCESS OF 11 FT. ANOTHER
PULSE OF GAP WINDS THROUGH PAPAGAYO IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SHORT
PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EARLIER PLUME PROPAGATES WEST AND
SUBSIDES. SIMILARLY FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 27N125W MOVING
WEST. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LOW AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT S OF 12N INTERACTING WITH WEAK
TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 135W. AN AREA OF
NE SWELL TO 8 FT IS NOTED ON AN EARLIER ALTIMETER FROM 10N TO
15N W OF 136W. WINDS WERE 20 TO 25 KT EARLIER...RELATED TO A AN
TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVE THROUGH THE THE AREA YESTERDAY...BUT
THESE WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE DIMINISHED AS NOTED IN A RECENT
ASCAT PASS. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT
ACCORDINGLY WITHIN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. ONLY MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ARE NOTED DUE TO A WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE
AREA...DUE THE PRESENCE OF THE DEEP LAYER LOW. AS THE UPPER LOW
WILL DRIFT WEST THROUGH LATE WEEK...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES IN THE DEEP TROPICS. THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST TWO AREAS
OF LOW PRES ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 130W THROUGH LATE FRI...THE
LATEST GFS IS FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
DOES NOT INCLUDE ANY CHANGES YET IN THIS AREA THROUGH 48
HOURS...BUT THIS WILL BE REVIEWED WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 012049
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 AM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM CONTINUING WEST TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 153.8E

ABOUT 420 MILES NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 285 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 605 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 610 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 615 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 630 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 153.8
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED BEFORE SLOWING DOWN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 012049
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 AM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM CONTINUING WEST TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 153.8E

ABOUT 420 MILES NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 285 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 605 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 610 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 615 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 630 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 153.8
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED BEFORE SLOWING DOWN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 011803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS
RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER RESUMING FRIDAY MORNING. PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 29W
FROM 05N TO 12N...MOVING W AT 5 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG WITH
A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 26W AND 32W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR
70W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT ENHANCES SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND SOUTHERN WATERS N OF 14N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 80W
...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS
MAINLY EMBEDDED IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT THAT HINDERS
CONVECTION...EXCEPT S OF 10N WHERE A PATCH OF MODERATE MOISTURE
ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N16W TO 09N24W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N37W AND
CONTINUES TO 08N28W 06N50W TO 07N58W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 18W AND 27W AND FROM 03N
TO 09N BETWEEN 37W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE COVERS SOUTHERN MEXICO...THE WESTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IS ALONG THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH ALONG A
MIDDLE LEVEL DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO SUPPORT NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS
FROM 20N TO 28N W OF 92W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSIST ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WITH A BASE OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN. LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE ALONG
WITH MOIST AIR ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 26N E OF
90W...INCLUDING NORTHERN FLORIDA. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RIDGING DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY
A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N85W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING
WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN FRIDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 80W...HOWEVER DEVOID OF CONVECTION DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. AHEAD OF THE WAVE...THE
BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND CONUS GENERATES A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT ENHANCES
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 17N TO 21N
W OF 80W. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 70W IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BULGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE THAT CURRENTLY ENHANCES
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO. SEE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS OVER HISPANIOLA FOLLOWED BY A
TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 70W. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BULGE OF MODERATE MOIST AIR THAT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE BASE OF A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SW N ATLC WATERS THUS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE ACROSS PUERTO RICO NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS BEING SUPPORTED
BY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN AND A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA
AND A RIDGE COVERING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC WATERS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N25W
TO 26N40W TO 28N52W. RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 011803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS
RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER RESUMING FRIDAY MORNING. PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 29W
FROM 05N TO 12N...MOVING W AT 5 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG WITH
A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 26W AND 32W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR
70W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT ENHANCES SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND SOUTHERN WATERS N OF 14N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 80W
...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS
MAINLY EMBEDDED IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT THAT HINDERS
CONVECTION...EXCEPT S OF 10N WHERE A PATCH OF MODERATE MOISTURE
ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N16W TO 09N24W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N37W AND
CONTINUES TO 08N28W 06N50W TO 07N58W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 18W AND 27W AND FROM 03N
TO 09N BETWEEN 37W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE COVERS SOUTHERN MEXICO...THE WESTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IS ALONG THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH ALONG A
MIDDLE LEVEL DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO SUPPORT NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS
FROM 20N TO 28N W OF 92W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSIST ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WITH A BASE OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN. LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE ALONG
WITH MOIST AIR ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 26N E OF
90W...INCLUDING NORTHERN FLORIDA. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RIDGING DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY
A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N85W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING
WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN FRIDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 80W...HOWEVER DEVOID OF CONVECTION DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. AHEAD OF THE WAVE...THE
BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND CONUS GENERATES A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT ENHANCES
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 17N TO 21N
W OF 80W. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 70W IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BULGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE THAT CURRENTLY ENHANCES
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO. SEE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS OVER HISPANIOLA FOLLOWED BY A
TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 70W. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BULGE OF MODERATE MOIST AIR THAT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE BASE OF A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SW N ATLC WATERS THUS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE ACROSS PUERTO RICO NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS BEING SUPPORTED
BY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN AND A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA
AND A RIDGE COVERING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC WATERS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N25W
TO 26N40W TO 28N52W. RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 011803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS
RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER RESUMING FRIDAY MORNING. PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 29W
FROM 05N TO 12N...MOVING W AT 5 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG WITH
A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 26W AND 32W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR
70W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT ENHANCES SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND SOUTHERN WATERS N OF 14N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 80W
...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS
MAINLY EMBEDDED IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT THAT HINDERS
CONVECTION...EXCEPT S OF 10N WHERE A PATCH OF MODERATE MOISTURE
ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N16W TO 09N24W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N37W AND
CONTINUES TO 08N28W 06N50W TO 07N58W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 18W AND 27W AND FROM 03N
TO 09N BETWEEN 37W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE COVERS SOUTHERN MEXICO...THE WESTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IS ALONG THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH ALONG A
MIDDLE LEVEL DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO SUPPORT NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS
FROM 20N TO 28N W OF 92W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSIST ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WITH A BASE OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN. LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE ALONG
WITH MOIST AIR ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 26N E OF
90W...INCLUDING NORTHERN FLORIDA. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RIDGING DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY
A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N85W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING
WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN FRIDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 80W...HOWEVER DEVOID OF CONVECTION DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. AHEAD OF THE WAVE...THE
BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND CONUS GENERATES A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT ENHANCES
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 17N TO 21N
W OF 80W. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 70W IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BULGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE THAT CURRENTLY ENHANCES
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO. SEE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS OVER HISPANIOLA FOLLOWED BY A
TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 70W. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BULGE OF MODERATE MOIST AIR THAT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE BASE OF A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SW N ATLC WATERS THUS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE ACROSS PUERTO RICO NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS BEING SUPPORTED
BY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN AND A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA
AND A RIDGE COVERING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC WATERS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N25W
TO 26N40W TO 28N52W. RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 011803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS
RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER RESUMING FRIDAY MORNING. PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 29W
FROM 05N TO 12N...MOVING W AT 5 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG WITH
A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 26W AND 32W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR
70W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT ENHANCES SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND SOUTHERN WATERS N OF 14N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 80W
...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS
MAINLY EMBEDDED IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT THAT HINDERS
CONVECTION...EXCEPT S OF 10N WHERE A PATCH OF MODERATE MOISTURE
ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N16W TO 09N24W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N37W AND
CONTINUES TO 08N28W 06N50W TO 07N58W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 18W AND 27W AND FROM 03N
TO 09N BETWEEN 37W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE COVERS SOUTHERN MEXICO...THE WESTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IS ALONG THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH ALONG A
MIDDLE LEVEL DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO SUPPORT NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS
FROM 20N TO 28N W OF 92W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSIST ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WITH A BASE OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN. LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE ALONG
WITH MOIST AIR ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 26N E OF
90W...INCLUDING NORTHERN FLORIDA. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RIDGING DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY
A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N85W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING
WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN FRIDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 80W...HOWEVER DEVOID OF CONVECTION DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. AHEAD OF THE WAVE...THE
BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND CONUS GENERATES A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT ENHANCES
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 17N TO 21N
W OF 80W. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 70W IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BULGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE THAT CURRENTLY ENHANCES
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO. SEE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS OVER HISPANIOLA FOLLOWED BY A
TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 70W. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BULGE OF MODERATE MOIST AIR THAT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE BASE OF A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SW N ATLC WATERS THUS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE ACROSS PUERTO RICO NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS BEING SUPPORTED
BY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN AND A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA
AND A RIDGE COVERING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC WATERS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N25W
TO 26N40W TO 28N52W. RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
ACPN50 PHFO 011745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST WED JUL 1 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

AG






000
ACPN50 PHFO 011745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST WED JUL 1 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

AG





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011736
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Upper-level
winds are forecast to become conducive for gradual development early
next week while the system moves slowly to the west or
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011736
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Upper-level
winds are forecast to become conducive for gradual development early
next week while the system moves slowly to the west or
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011736
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Upper-level
winds are forecast to become conducive for gradual development early
next week while the system moves slowly to the west or
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011736
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Upper-level
winds are forecast to become conducive for gradual development early
next week while the system moves slowly to the west or
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011736
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Upper-level
winds are forecast to become conducive for gradual development early
next week while the system moves slowly to the west or
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABNT20 KNHC 011732
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ABNT20 KNHC 011732
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011608
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 95W MOVING W 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 104W MOVING W 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 112W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 124W MOVING W 10-15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 135W MOVING W 10-15 KT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 09N87.5W TO 06N94.5W TO 05N108W TO 08N121W TO 08N136W TO
BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 04N80W TO 13N105W.
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
NOTED FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 115W AND 139W...ASSOCIATED WITH
SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS N
AMERICA AND ADJACENT OCEANIC AREAS TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED LARGE
DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS CENTERED IN THE UPPER LEVELS NEAR
26N123W AND IS SHIFTING NW AND GRADUALLY BECOMING ELONGATED SE
TO NW IN TIME...WITH A TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING SE ACROSS
THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO MEXICO NEAR 20N100W.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL S THROUGH SW OF THE
CYCLONE...FROM 12N-20N BEGINNING S OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO
ALONG 120W...TURNING SE BETWEEN 120W AND THE MEXICAN COAST.
UPPER LEVEL SPEED DIVERGENCE TO THE S OF 12N IS PROVIDING A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION DESCRIBED
ABOVE BETWEEN 115W AND 139W...WHERE ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAS
CONVERGED DUE TO A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
GENERALLY PREVAILS S OF THESE WESTERLIES...EXTENDING W TO E
ALONG 10N-12N TO CENTRAL AMERICA. THE UPPER CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT NW AND REORGANIZE INTO A NARROW TROUGH THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...LEAVING VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR
ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 110W.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE NE
PACIFIC NEAR 48N134W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE S-SW AND ACROSS NW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND A WEAK SECONDARY RIDGE SE TO NEAR
26N117W. THE PRES GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE MAIN RIDGE IS
PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS S OF 25N AND W OF
127W...WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 4 TO 7 FT. NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT
AND SEAS 8 TO 9 FT PREVAIL ACROSS SW PORTIONS FROM 12N TO 14N W
OF 138W. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FADE ACROSS
THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY AND SHIFTS W.

GAP WINDS...STRONG TRADEWINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
AND W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND ARE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
TO PRODUCE PULSING GAP WINDS FROM NW COSTA RICA TO GUATEMALA.
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FROM 10N TO 12.5N
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING MODESTLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD DOWNWIND TONIGHT TO AROUND
94-95W...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT. ALSO...LOOK FOR
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO
PRODUCE PEAK N WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS 6-8 FT N OF 14.5N
TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011608
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 95W MOVING W 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 104W MOVING W 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 112W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 124W MOVING W 10-15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 135W MOVING W 10-15 KT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 09N87.5W TO 06N94.5W TO 05N108W TO 08N121W TO 08N136W TO
BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 04N80W TO 13N105W.
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
NOTED FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 115W AND 139W...ASSOCIATED WITH
SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS N
AMERICA AND ADJACENT OCEANIC AREAS TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED LARGE
DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS CENTERED IN THE UPPER LEVELS NEAR
26N123W AND IS SHIFTING NW AND GRADUALLY BECOMING ELONGATED SE
TO NW IN TIME...WITH A TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING SE ACROSS
THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO MEXICO NEAR 20N100W.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL S THROUGH SW OF THE
CYCLONE...FROM 12N-20N BEGINNING S OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO
ALONG 120W...TURNING SE BETWEEN 120W AND THE MEXICAN COAST.
UPPER LEVEL SPEED DIVERGENCE TO THE S OF 12N IS PROVIDING A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION DESCRIBED
ABOVE BETWEEN 115W AND 139W...WHERE ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAS
CONVERGED DUE TO A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
GENERALLY PREVAILS S OF THESE WESTERLIES...EXTENDING W TO E
ALONG 10N-12N TO CENTRAL AMERICA. THE UPPER CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT NW AND REORGANIZE INTO A NARROW TROUGH THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...LEAVING VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR
ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 110W.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE NE
PACIFIC NEAR 48N134W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE S-SW AND ACROSS NW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND A WEAK SECONDARY RIDGE SE TO NEAR
26N117W. THE PRES GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE MAIN RIDGE IS
PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS S OF 25N AND W OF
127W...WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 4 TO 7 FT. NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT
AND SEAS 8 TO 9 FT PREVAIL ACROSS SW PORTIONS FROM 12N TO 14N W
OF 138W. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FADE ACROSS
THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY AND SHIFTS W.

GAP WINDS...STRONG TRADEWINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
AND W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND ARE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
TO PRODUCE PULSING GAP WINDS FROM NW COSTA RICA TO GUATEMALA.
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FROM 10N TO 12.5N
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING MODESTLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD DOWNWIND TONIGHT TO AROUND
94-95W...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT. ALSO...LOOK FOR
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO
PRODUCE PEAK N WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS 6-8 FT N OF 14.5N
TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT.

$$
STRIPLING



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 011448
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM INTENSIFIES SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF CHUUK...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 155.2E

ABOUT 355 MILES NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 335 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 695 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 705 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 725 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.2
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 6 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

ZIOBRO


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 011448
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM INTENSIFIES SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF CHUUK...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 155.2E

ABOUT 355 MILES NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 335 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 695 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 705 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 725 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.2
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 6 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

ZIOBRO



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 011448
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM INTENSIFIES SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF CHUUK...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 155.2E

ABOUT 355 MILES NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 335 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 695 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 705 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 725 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.2
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 6 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

ZIOBRO


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 011448
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...CHAN-HOM INTENSIFIES SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF CHUUK...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 155.2E

ABOUT 355 MILES NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 335 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 695 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 705 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 725 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.2
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 6 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

ZIOBRO



000
ABPZ30 KNHC 011447
TWSEP

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT WED JUL 01 2015

For the eastern North Pacific, east of 140 degrees west longitude:

One tropical cyclone formed in the basin in June, Hurricane Carlos.
In addition, Blanca became a tropical storm and eventually a major
hurricane during June.  Based on a 30-year average (1981-2010), two
named storms form in the basin in June, with one of those storms
reaching hurricane strength.  On average, a major hurricane forms in
the basin in June about once every 3 years.

In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes,
activity in the basin through June is at a record level going back
to the beginning of reliable records in 1971.  The ACE through the
end of June is more than 350 percent of the 1981-2010 median value.

Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
the website of the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2015&basin=epac

Summary Table

Name                 Dates         Max Wind (mph)
---------------------------------------------------
MH  Andres       28 May-4 Jun          145
MH  Blanca       31 May-9 Jun          140
H   Carlos          10-17 Jun           90
---------------------------------------------------

* Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit




000
ABPZ30 KNHC 011447
TWSEP

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT WED JUL 01 2015

For the eastern North Pacific, east of 140 degrees west longitude:

One tropical cyclone formed in the basin in June, Hurricane Carlos.
In addition, Blanca became a tropical storm and eventually a major
hurricane during June.  Based on a 30-year average (1981-2010), two
named storms form in the basin in June, with one of those storms
reaching hurricane strength.  On average, a major hurricane forms in
the basin in June about once every 3 years.

In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes,
activity in the basin through June is at a record level going back
to the beginning of reliable records in 1971.  The ACE through the
end of June is more than 350 percent of the 1981-2010 median value.

Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
the website of the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2015&basin=epac

Summary Table

Name                 Dates         Max Wind (mph)
---------------------------------------------------
MH  Andres       28 May-4 Jun          145
MH  Blanca       31 May-9 Jun          140
H   Carlos          10-17 Jun           90
---------------------------------------------------

* Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit



000
ABPZ30 KNHC 011447
TWSEP

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT WED JUL 01 2015

For the eastern North Pacific, east of 140 degrees west longitude:

One tropical cyclone formed in the basin in June, Hurricane Carlos.
In addition, Blanca became a tropical storm and eventually a major
hurricane during June.  Based on a 30-year average (1981-2010), two
named storms form in the basin in June, with one of those storms
reaching hurricane strength.  On average, a major hurricane forms in
the basin in June about once every 3 years.

In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes,
activity in the basin through June is at a record level going back
to the beginning of reliable records in 1971.  The ACE through the
end of June is more than 350 percent of the 1981-2010 median value.

Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
the website of the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2015&basin=epac

Summary Table

Name                 Dates         Max Wind (mph)
---------------------------------------------------
MH  Andres       28 May-4 Jun          145
MH  Blanca       31 May-9 Jun          140
H   Carlos          10-17 Jun           90
---------------------------------------------------

* Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit




000
ABPZ30 KNHC 011447
TWSEP

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT WED JUL 01 2015

For the eastern North Pacific, east of 140 degrees west longitude:

One tropical cyclone formed in the basin in June, Hurricane Carlos.
In addition, Blanca became a tropical storm and eventually a major
hurricane during June.  Based on a 30-year average (1981-2010), two
named storms form in the basin in June, with one of those storms
reaching hurricane strength.  On average, a major hurricane forms in
the basin in June about once every 3 years.

In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes,
activity in the basin through June is at a record level going back
to the beginning of reliable records in 1971.  The ACE through the
end of June is more than 350 percent of the 1981-2010 median value.

Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
the website of the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2015&basin=epac

Summary Table

Name                 Dates         Max Wind (mph)
---------------------------------------------------
MH  Andres       28 May-4 Jun          145
MH  Blanca       31 May-9 Jun          140
H   Carlos          10-17 Jun           90
---------------------------------------------------

* Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit




000
ABPZ30 KNHC 011447
TWSEP

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT WED JUL 01 2015

For the eastern North Pacific, east of 140 degrees west longitude:

One tropical cyclone formed in the basin in June, Hurricane Carlos.
In addition, Blanca became a tropical storm and eventually a major
hurricane during June.  Based on a 30-year average (1981-2010), two
named storms form in the basin in June, with one of those storms
reaching hurricane strength.  On average, a major hurricane forms in
the basin in June about once every 3 years.

In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes,
activity in the basin through June is at a record level going back
to the beginning of reliable records in 1971.  The ACE through the
end of June is more than 350 percent of the 1981-2010 median value.

Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
the website of the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2015&basin=epac

Summary Table

Name                 Dates         Max Wind (mph)
---------------------------------------------------
MH  Andres       28 May-4 Jun          145
MH  Blanca       31 May-9 Jun          140
H   Carlos          10-17 Jun           90
---------------------------------------------------

* Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit




000
ABPZ30 KNHC 011447
TWSEP

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT WED JUL 01 2015

For the eastern North Pacific, east of 140 degrees west longitude:

One tropical cyclone formed in the basin in June, Hurricane Carlos.
In addition, Blanca became a tropical storm and eventually a major
hurricane during June.  Based on a 30-year average (1981-2010), two
named storms form in the basin in June, with one of those storms
reaching hurricane strength.  On average, a major hurricane forms in
the basin in June about once every 3 years.

In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes,
activity in the basin through June is at a record level going back
to the beginning of reliable records in 1971.  The ACE through the
end of June is more than 350 percent of the 1981-2010 median value.

Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
the website of the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2015&basin=epac

Summary Table

Name                 Dates         Max Wind (mph)
---------------------------------------------------
MH  Andres       28 May-4 Jun          145
MH  Blanca       31 May-9 Jun          140
H   Carlos          10-17 Jun           90
---------------------------------------------------

* Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit




000
ACPN60 PHFO 011200
TWSCP

TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST WED JUL 1 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

THERE WERE NO TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER /CPHC/ AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY DURING THE MONTH OF JUNE 2015.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE CPHC WEB SITE AT...
WEATHER.GOV/CPHC

$$

CPHC HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT




000
ACPN60 PHFO 011200
TWSCP

TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST WED JUL 1 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

THERE WERE NO TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER /CPHC/ AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY DURING THE MONTH OF JUNE 2015.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE CPHC WEB SITE AT...
WEATHER.GOV/CPHC

$$

CPHC HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT





000
ACPN50 PHFO 011155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST WED JUL 01 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

POWELL











000
ACPN50 PHFO 011155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST WED JUL 01 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

POWELL










000
ACPN50 PHFO 011155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST WED JUL 01 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

POWELL











000
ACPN50 PHFO 011155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST WED JUL 01 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

POWELL










000
ABNT30 KNHC 011152
TWSAT

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

One tropical cyclone formed in the basin in June, Tropical Storm
Bill.  Based on a 30-year (1981-2010) climatology, a named storm
forms in the basin in June about every other year, with a hurricane
forming once every 7 or 8 years.

Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at the
website of the National Hurricane Center:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2015&basin=atl.

Summary Table

Name                 Dates         Max Wind (mph)
---------------------------------------------------
TS Ana               8-11 May           60
TS Bill             16-20 Jun           60
---------------------------------------------------

* Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit




000
ABNT30 KNHC 011152
TWSAT

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

One tropical cyclone formed in the basin in June, Tropical Storm
Bill.  Based on a 30-year (1981-2010) climatology, a named storm
forms in the basin in June about every other year, with a hurricane
forming once every 7 or 8 years.

Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at the
website of the National Hurricane Center:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2015&basin=atl.

Summary Table

Name                 Dates         Max Wind (mph)
---------------------------------------------------
TS Ana               8-11 May           60
TS Bill             16-20 Jun           60
---------------------------------------------------

* Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011132
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Some gradual
development is possible thereafter while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011132
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Some gradual
development is possible thereafter while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 011132
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT MIERCOLES 1 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 011132
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT MIERCOLES 1 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 011132
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT MIERCOLES 1 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 011132
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT MIERCOLES 1 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011132
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Some gradual
development is possible thereafter while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011132
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Some gradual
development is possible thereafter while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABNT20 KNHC 011128
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
ABNT20 KNHC 011128
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABNT20 KNHC 011128
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABNT20 KNHC 011128
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
AXNT20 KNHC 011057
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND
77W...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...FORECAST TO LAST FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM 11 FEET TO 15 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/
FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD.14N26W 10N28W 6N29W... MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
ITCZ-RELATED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NEARBY.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N68W 15N71W
11N71W...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS IN THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W...INCLUDING THE WATERS THAT SURROUND PUERTO RICO.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ALONG THE LINE
FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO JAMAICA...TO 14N79W TO CENTRAL PANAMA.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE APPARENT AROUND HISPANIOLA...
WHICH STILL IS ENGULFED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 13N17W...TO 10N22W AND 8N33W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 8N33W TO 5N45W...AND TO THE COASTS OF FRENCH GUIANA AND
SURINAME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 17W AND 18W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 8N60W NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER OF GUYANA AND VENEZUELA.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 10N23W 9N30W 9N40W 6N47W 7N57W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES AWAY FROM AN EASTERN
MEXICO/COASTAL PLAINS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT FLOWS TOWARD
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE LINE
FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
16N82W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE TROUGH IS JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG...FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO 30N BETWEEN 79W AND
THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE
AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 92W/93W FROM 18N TO 23N.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO FROM 19N TO 26N ALONG THE
BORDER OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
BETWEEN 94W AND 98W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS
FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT NEAR THE 92W/93W DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA/ALSO IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W

MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERN WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM
14N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W AND NICARAGUA. 600 MB TO 800 MB
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND ACROSS ALL OF NICARAGUA.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH 25N69W TO 16N73W. THE 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND
FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE COASTAL WATERS ON THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND BETWEEN
HAITI...JAMAICA...AND CUBA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO
25N69W TO HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH...AND FROM THE
GREATER ANTILLES NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.39 IN
BERMUDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THAT IS
COLD FROM 32N15W TO 28N28W...AND STATIONARY FROM 28N28W TO
28N40W...AND 27N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N13W
27N24W 25N40W 24N60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N49W TO 32N54W...28N67W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...BEYOND 25N85W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 011057
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND
77W...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...FORECAST TO LAST FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM 11 FEET TO 15 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/
FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD.14N26W 10N28W 6N29W... MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
ITCZ-RELATED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NEARBY.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N68W 15N71W
11N71W...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS IN THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W...INCLUDING THE WATERS THAT SURROUND PUERTO RICO.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ALONG THE LINE
FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO JAMAICA...TO 14N79W TO CENTRAL PANAMA.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE APPARENT AROUND HISPANIOLA...
WHICH STILL IS ENGULFED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 13N17W...TO 10N22W AND 8N33W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 8N33W TO 5N45W...AND TO THE COASTS OF FRENCH GUIANA AND
SURINAME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 17W AND 18W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 8N60W NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER OF GUYANA AND VENEZUELA.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 10N23W 9N30W 9N40W 6N47W 7N57W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES AWAY FROM AN EASTERN
MEXICO/COASTAL PLAINS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT FLOWS TOWARD
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE LINE
FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
16N82W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE TROUGH IS JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG...FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO 30N BETWEEN 79W AND
THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE
AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 92W/93W FROM 18N TO 23N.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO FROM 19N TO 26N ALONG THE
BORDER OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
BETWEEN 94W AND 98W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS
FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT NEAR THE 92W/93W DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA/ALSO IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W

MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERN WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM
14N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W AND NICARAGUA. 600 MB TO 800 MB
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND ACROSS ALL OF NICARAGUA.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH 25N69W TO 16N73W. THE 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND
FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE COASTAL WATERS ON THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND BETWEEN
HAITI...JAMAICA...AND CUBA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO
25N69W TO HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH...AND FROM THE
GREATER ANTILLES NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.39 IN
BERMUDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THAT IS
COLD FROM 32N15W TO 28N28W...AND STATIONARY FROM 28N28W TO
28N40W...AND 27N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N13W
27N24W 25N40W 24N60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N49W TO 32N54W...28N67W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...BEYOND 25N85W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 011057
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND
77W...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...FORECAST TO LAST FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM 11 FEET TO 15 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/
FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD.14N26W 10N28W 6N29W... MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
ITCZ-RELATED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NEARBY.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N68W 15N71W
11N71W...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS IN THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W...INCLUDING THE WATERS THAT SURROUND PUERTO RICO.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ALONG THE LINE
FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO JAMAICA...TO 14N79W TO CENTRAL PANAMA.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE APPARENT AROUND HISPANIOLA...
WHICH STILL IS ENGULFED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 13N17W...TO 10N22W AND 8N33W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 8N33W TO 5N45W...AND TO THE COASTS OF FRENCH GUIANA AND
SURINAME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 17W AND 18W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 8N60W NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER OF GUYANA AND VENEZUELA.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 10N23W 9N30W 9N40W 6N47W 7N57W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES AWAY FROM AN EASTERN
MEXICO/COASTAL PLAINS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT FLOWS TOWARD
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE LINE
FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
16N82W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE TROUGH IS JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG...FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO 30N BETWEEN 79W AND
THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE
AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 92W/93W FROM 18N TO 23N.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO FROM 19N TO 26N ALONG THE
BORDER OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
BETWEEN 94W AND 98W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS
FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT NEAR THE 92W/93W DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA/ALSO IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W

MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERN WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM
14N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W AND NICARAGUA. 600 MB TO 800 MB
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND ACROSS ALL OF NICARAGUA.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH 25N69W TO 16N73W. THE 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND
FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE COASTAL WATERS ON THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND BETWEEN
HAITI...JAMAICA...AND CUBA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO
25N69W TO HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH...AND FROM THE
GREATER ANTILLES NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.39 IN
BERMUDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THAT IS
COLD FROM 32N15W TO 28N28W...AND STATIONARY FROM 28N28W TO
28N40W...AND 27N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N13W
27N24W 25N40W 24N60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N49W TO 32N54W...28N67W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...BEYOND 25N85W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 011057
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND
77W...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...FORECAST TO LAST FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM 11 FEET TO 15 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/
FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD.14N26W 10N28W 6N29W... MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
ITCZ-RELATED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NEARBY.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N68W 15N71W
11N71W...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS IN THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W...INCLUDING THE WATERS THAT SURROUND PUERTO RICO.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ALONG THE LINE
FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO JAMAICA...TO 14N79W TO CENTRAL PANAMA.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE APPARENT AROUND HISPANIOLA...
WHICH STILL IS ENGULFED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 13N17W...TO 10N22W AND 8N33W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 8N33W TO 5N45W...AND TO THE COASTS OF FRENCH GUIANA AND
SURINAME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 17W AND 18W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 8N60W NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER OF GUYANA AND VENEZUELA.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 10N23W 9N30W 9N40W 6N47W 7N57W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES AWAY FROM AN EASTERN
MEXICO/COASTAL PLAINS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT FLOWS TOWARD
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE LINE
FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
16N82W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE TROUGH IS JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG...FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO 30N BETWEEN 79W AND
THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE
AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 92W/93W FROM 18N TO 23N.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO FROM 19N TO 26N ALONG THE
BORDER OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
BETWEEN 94W AND 98W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS
FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT NEAR THE 92W/93W DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA/ALSO IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W

MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERN WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM
14N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W AND NICARAGUA. 600 MB TO 800 MB
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND ACROSS ALL OF NICARAGUA.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH 25N69W TO 16N73W. THE 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND
FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE COASTAL WATERS ON THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND BETWEEN
HAITI...JAMAICA...AND CUBA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO
25N69W TO HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH...AND FROM THE
GREATER ANTILLES NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.39 IN
BERMUDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THAT IS
COLD FROM 32N15W TO 28N28W...AND STATIONARY FROM 28N28W TO
28N40W...AND 27N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N13W
27N24W 25N40W 24N60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N49W TO 32N54W...28N67W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...BEYOND 25N85W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010908
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 4N-13N ALONG 92W MOVING W 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 8N-16N ALONG 102W MOVING W 15 KT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 101W-104W

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 6N-15N ALONG 129W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 127W-133W.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 7N-15N ALONG 139W MOVING W 15-20 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 6N94W TO 8N120W TO 8N129W 9N138W. SCATTERED TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 118W-134W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS FROM 32N136W TO 27M140W. A NARROW
UPPER RIDGE FROM 30N132W TO 20N135W SEPARATES THE TROUGH FROM A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 24N122W
WITH UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 115W-130W.
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 118W-134W.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF
18N W OF 120W. AN AREA OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT FROM 11N-18N.
OTHERWISE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ELY WINDS 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS WILL TO 9
FT. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN
8 FT BY THU NIGHT.

$$
DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010908
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 4N-13N ALONG 92W MOVING W 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 8N-16N ALONG 102W MOVING W 15 KT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 101W-104W

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 6N-15N ALONG 129W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 127W-133W.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 7N-15N ALONG 139W MOVING W 15-20 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 6N94W TO 8N120W TO 8N129W 9N138W. SCATTERED TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 118W-134W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS FROM 32N136W TO 27M140W. A NARROW
UPPER RIDGE FROM 30N132W TO 20N135W SEPARATES THE TROUGH FROM A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 24N122W
WITH UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 115W-130W.
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 118W-134W.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF
18N W OF 120W. AN AREA OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT FROM 11N-18N.
OTHERWISE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ELY WINDS 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS WILL TO 9
FT. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN
8 FT BY THU NIGHT.

$$
DGS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010908
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 4N-13N ALONG 92W MOVING W 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 8N-16N ALONG 102W MOVING W 15 KT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 101W-104W

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 6N-15N ALONG 129W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 127W-133W.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 7N-15N ALONG 139W MOVING W 15-20 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 6N94W TO 8N120W TO 8N129W 9N138W. SCATTERED TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 118W-134W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS FROM 32N136W TO 27M140W. A NARROW
UPPER RIDGE FROM 30N132W TO 20N135W SEPARATES THE TROUGH FROM A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 24N122W
WITH UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 115W-130W.
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 118W-134W.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF
18N W OF 120W. AN AREA OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT FROM 11N-18N.
OTHERWISE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ELY WINDS 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS WILL TO 9
FT. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN
8 FT BY THU NIGHT.

$$
DGS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010908
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 4N-13N ALONG 92W MOVING W 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 8N-16N ALONG 102W MOVING W 15 KT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 101W-104W

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 6N-15N ALONG 129W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 127W-133W.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 7N-15N ALONG 139W MOVING W 15-20 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 6N94W TO 8N120W TO 8N129W 9N138W. SCATTERED TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 118W-134W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS FROM 32N136W TO 27M140W. A NARROW
UPPER RIDGE FROM 30N132W TO 20N135W SEPARATES THE TROUGH FROM A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 24N122W
WITH UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 115W-130W.
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 118W-134W.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF
18N W OF 120W. AN AREA OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT FROM 11N-18N.
OTHERWISE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ELY WINDS 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS WILL TO 9
FT. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN
8 FT BY THU NIGHT.

$$
DGS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010908
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 4N-13N ALONG 92W MOVING W 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 8N-16N ALONG 102W MOVING W 15 KT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 101W-104W

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 6N-15N ALONG 129W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 127W-133W.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 7N-15N ALONG 139W MOVING W 15-20 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 6N94W TO 8N120W TO 8N129W 9N138W. SCATTERED TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 118W-134W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS FROM 32N136W TO 27M140W. A NARROW
UPPER RIDGE FROM 30N132W TO 20N135W SEPARATES THE TROUGH FROM A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 24N122W
WITH UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 115W-130W.
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 118W-134W.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF
18N W OF 120W. AN AREA OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT FROM 11N-18N.
OTHERWISE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ELY WINDS 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS WILL TO 9
FT. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN
8 FT BY THU NIGHT.

$$
DGS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010908
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 4N-13N ALONG 92W MOVING W 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 8N-16N ALONG 102W MOVING W 15 KT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 101W-104W

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 6N-15N ALONG 129W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 127W-133W.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 7N-15N ALONG 139W MOVING W 15-20 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 6N94W TO 8N120W TO 8N129W 9N138W. SCATTERED TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 118W-134W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS FROM 32N136W TO 27M140W. A NARROW
UPPER RIDGE FROM 30N132W TO 20N135W SEPARATES THE TROUGH FROM A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 24N122W
WITH UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 115W-130W.
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 118W-134W.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF
18N W OF 120W. AN AREA OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT FROM 11N-18N.
OTHERWISE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ELY WINDS 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS WILL TO 9
FT. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN
8 FT BY THU NIGHT.

$$
DGS


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 010901
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 PM CHST WED JUL 1 2015

...CHAN-HOM MAINTAINING INTENSITY NORTHEAST OF CHUUK...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.8N 155.5E

ABOUT 325 MILES NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 335 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 720 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 725 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 730 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 750 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.5
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM CHAN-
HOM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

WILLIAMS


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 010901
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 PM CHST WED JUL 1 2015

...CHAN-HOM MAINTAINING INTENSITY NORTHEAST OF CHUUK...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.8N 155.5E

ABOUT 325 MILES NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 335 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 720 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 725 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 730 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 750 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.5
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM CHAN-
HOM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

WILLIAMS



000
AXNT20 KNHC 010605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE FORECAST CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS STARTING DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W...AND THOSE GALE-
FORCE WINDS ONLY WILL LAST FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N26W 10N28W 6N29W...
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. ITCZ-RELATED CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS NEARBY.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N65W 14N67W
10N67W...MOVING WESTWARD 30 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS JUST TO THE EAST
OF PUERTO RICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N
TO 17N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF PUERTO RICO.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N73W IN HAITI...TO
15N75W AND TO 10N75W IN COASTAL COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE APPARENT AROUND HISPANIOLA...
WHICH STILL IS ENGULFED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 21N17W TO 18N19W 14N19W AND TO 10N25W. THE ITCZ STARTS FROM
9N30W TO 7N42W TO 5N53W IN NORTHWESTERN FRENCH GUIANA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
WITHIN 90 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N16W 9N23W 7N40W
5N48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN
FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG...FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO 30N BETWEEN 79W AND
THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE
AREA.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH HAS EMERGED FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND NOW IT IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
24N NORTHWARD. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A
1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE RIDGE THAT IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA/ALSO IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS AFFECTING
HISPANIOLA.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA
TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 25N69W TO 16N73W.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO
25N69W TO HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. THE
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.39 IN
BERMUDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
28N/29NW BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60
NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 010605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE FORECAST CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS STARTING DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W...AND THOSE GALE-
FORCE WINDS ONLY WILL LAST FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N26W 10N28W 6N29W...
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. ITCZ-RELATED CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS NEARBY.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N65W 14N67W
10N67W...MOVING WESTWARD 30 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS JUST TO THE EAST
OF PUERTO RICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N
TO 17N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF PUERTO RICO.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N73W IN HAITI...TO
15N75W AND TO 10N75W IN COASTAL COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE APPARENT AROUND HISPANIOLA...
WHICH STILL IS ENGULFED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 21N17W TO 18N19W 14N19W AND TO 10N25W. THE ITCZ STARTS FROM
9N30W TO 7N42W TO 5N53W IN NORTHWESTERN FRENCH GUIANA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
WITHIN 90 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N16W 9N23W 7N40W
5N48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN
FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG...FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO 30N BETWEEN 79W AND
THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE
AREA.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH HAS EMERGED FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND NOW IT IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
24N NORTHWARD. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A
1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE RIDGE THAT IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA/ALSO IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS AFFECTING
HISPANIOLA.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA
TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 25N69W TO 16N73W.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO
25N69W TO HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. THE
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.39 IN
BERMUDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
28N/29NW BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60
NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 010605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE FORECAST CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS STARTING DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W...AND THOSE GALE-
FORCE WINDS ONLY WILL LAST FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N26W 10N28W 6N29W...
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. ITCZ-RELATED CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS NEARBY.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N65W 14N67W
10N67W...MOVING WESTWARD 30 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS JUST TO THE EAST
OF PUERTO RICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N
TO 17N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF PUERTO RICO.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N73W IN HAITI...TO
15N75W AND TO 10N75W IN COASTAL COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE APPARENT AROUND HISPANIOLA...
WHICH STILL IS ENGULFED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 21N17W TO 18N19W 14N19W AND TO 10N25W. THE ITCZ STARTS FROM
9N30W TO 7N42W TO 5N53W IN NORTHWESTERN FRENCH GUIANA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
WITHIN 90 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N16W 9N23W 7N40W
5N48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN
FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG...FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO 30N BETWEEN 79W AND
THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE
AREA.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH HAS EMERGED FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND NOW IT IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
24N NORTHWARD. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A
1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE RIDGE THAT IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA/ALSO IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS AFFECTING
HISPANIOLA.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA
TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 25N69W TO 16N73W.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO
25N69W TO HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. THE
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.39 IN
BERMUDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
28N/29NW BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60
NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 010605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE FORECAST CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS STARTING DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W...AND THOSE GALE-
FORCE WINDS ONLY WILL LAST FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N26W 10N28W 6N29W...
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. ITCZ-RELATED CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS NEARBY.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N65W 14N67W
10N67W...MOVING WESTWARD 30 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS JUST TO THE EAST
OF PUERTO RICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N
TO 17N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF PUERTO RICO.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N73W IN HAITI...TO
15N75W AND TO 10N75W IN COASTAL COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE APPARENT AROUND HISPANIOLA...
WHICH STILL IS ENGULFED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 21N17W TO 18N19W 14N19W AND TO 10N25W. THE ITCZ STARTS FROM
9N30W TO 7N42W TO 5N53W IN NORTHWESTERN FRENCH GUIANA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
WITHIN 90 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N16W 9N23W 7N40W
5N48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN
FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG...FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO 30N BETWEEN 79W AND
THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE
AREA.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH HAS EMERGED FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND NOW IT IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
24N NORTHWARD. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A
1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE RIDGE THAT IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA/ALSO IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS AFFECTING
HISPANIOLA.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA
TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 25N69W TO 16N73W.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO
25N69W TO HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. THE
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.39 IN
BERMUDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
28N/29NW BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60
NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
ACPN50 PHFO 010555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST TUE JUN 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

$$

POWELL






000
ACPN50 PHFO 010555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST TUE JUN 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

$$

POWELL






000
ACPN50 PHFO 010555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST TUE JUN 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

$$

POWELL






000
ACPN50 PHFO 010555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST TUE JUN 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

$$

POWELL






000
ACPN50 PHFO 010555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST TUE JUN 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

$$

POWELL






000
ACPN50 PHFO 010555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST TUE JUN 30 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

$$

POWELL







000
ABNT20 KNHC 010500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABNT20 KNHC 010500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABNT20 KNHC 010500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABNT20 KNHC 010500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Some slow
development is possible thereafter while the system moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Some slow
development is possible thereafter while the system moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Some slow
development is possible thereafter while the system moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Some slow
development is possible thereafter while the system moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Some slow
development is possible thereafter while the system moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend.  Some slow
development is possible thereafter while the system moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch



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