000
AXNT20 KNHC 212344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 7N36W TO EQ39W THROUGH A 1011 MB
SURFACE LOW NEAR 4N38W MOVING WEST NEAR 10 KT. THIS POSITION IS
SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE LAST ANALYSIS. THIS WAS DONE DUE TO MORE
PROMINENT LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE
LOW...AND WAS ALSO EVIDENT IN 1000 MB STREAMLINES IN MODEL
GUIDANCE. THERE ARE SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE VICINITY AND
IT IS HARD TO DETERMINE WHICH WILL BECOME DOMINANT...AS IS
COMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 17N68W
TO 10N71W MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A
BROAD AREA OF INCREASED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. DUE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...SOME OF THE
MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN EASTWARD ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN
INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 14N EAST OF 70W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N13W
TO 7N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 7N18W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N26W
5N36W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 14W-
20W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 23W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF MEXICO
ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERING THE BASIN ALONG 90W. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS BROAD
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE WEST ATLC. HOWEVER...A
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES ACROSS FLORIDA ALONG 80W/81W
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THIS PATTERN COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING HAS LED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE ACTIVITY
IS MAINLY CONCENTRATED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS DOMINATE THE AREA RANGING FROM 10 KT IN
THE EASTERN GULF TO 15-20 IN THE WESTERN GULF. SURFACE RIDGING
WILL REMAIN DOMINANT AT THE SURFACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER FLORIDA SHOULD DRIFT EAST OF FLORIDA IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT IT MAY STILL INFLUENCE AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TOMORROW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT SPREADS INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND
FAIR WEATHER. HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA ALONG 10N TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A WEAK
1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
10N79W. ACTIVITY IS MAINLY SOUTH OF 12N. IT IS ALSO ENHANCED BY
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AS MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
PRESENT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS SHEARING MOISTURE NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 70W AND DRAWING IT ACROSS THE NE
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NORTH OF 14N EAST OF 70W. AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO COVERING MUCH OF
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND PUERTO RICO. TRADEWIND FLOW OF
15-20 KT IS PRESENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AREA. THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST AND WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH THE
MOISTURE FIELD NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO DIE DOWN ACROSS
HISPANIOLA WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL PRESENT OVER HAITI
WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN INCREASED
AREA OF MOISTURE IS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE EAST
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH. THIS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING EASTWARD
FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR FLORIDA WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR HEAVIER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION TOMORROW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS JUST EAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 80W
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 75W-79W WITH
ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVER CUBA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEST ATLC SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A
1024 MB HIGH NEAR 31N58W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH NEAR 44W
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N44W AND
CONTINUES TO 27N51W WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE TO NEAR 26N59W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 41W-47W. A WEAK 1019
MB SURFACE LOW IS SOUTH OF THE FRONT NEAR 27N48W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH IT ALONG 29N47W TO 23N50W. NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE TROUGH/LOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST ATLC
IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR
44N27W. BROAD UPPER RIDGING ALSO COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON

000
AXNT20 KNHC 212344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 7N36W TO EQ39W THROUGH A 1011 MB
SURFACE LOW NEAR 4N38W MOVING WEST NEAR 10 KT. THIS POSITION IS
SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE LAST ANALYSIS. THIS WAS DONE DUE TO MORE
PROMINENT LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE
LOW...AND WAS ALSO EVIDENT IN 1000 MB STREAMLINES IN MODEL
GUIDANCE. THERE ARE SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE VICINITY AND
IT IS HARD TO DETERMINE WHICH WILL BECOME DOMINANT...AS IS
COMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 17N68W
TO 10N71W MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A
BROAD AREA OF INCREASED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. DUE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...SOME OF THE
MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN EASTWARD ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN
INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 14N EAST OF 70W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N13W
TO 7N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 7N18W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N26W
5N36W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 14W-
20W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 23W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF MEXICO
ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERING THE BASIN ALONG 90W. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS BROAD
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE WEST ATLC. HOWEVER...A
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES ACROSS FLORIDA ALONG 80W/81W
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THIS PATTERN COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING HAS LED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE ACTIVITY
IS MAINLY CONCENTRATED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS DOMINATE THE AREA RANGING FROM 10 KT IN
THE EASTERN GULF TO 15-20 IN THE WESTERN GULF. SURFACE RIDGING
WILL REMAIN DOMINANT AT THE SURFACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER FLORIDA SHOULD DRIFT EAST OF FLORIDA IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT IT MAY STILL INFLUENCE AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TOMORROW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT SPREADS INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND
FAIR WEATHER. HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA ALONG 10N TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A WEAK
1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
10N79W. ACTIVITY IS MAINLY SOUTH OF 12N. IT IS ALSO ENHANCED BY
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AS MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
PRESENT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS SHEARING MOISTURE NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 70W AND DRAWING IT ACROSS THE NE
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NORTH OF 14N EAST OF 70W. AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO COVERING MUCH OF
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND PUERTO RICO. TRADEWIND FLOW OF
15-20 KT IS PRESENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AREA. THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST AND WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH THE
MOISTURE FIELD NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO DIE DOWN ACROSS
HISPANIOLA WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL PRESENT OVER HAITI
WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN INCREASED
AREA OF MOISTURE IS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE EAST
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH. THIS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING EASTWARD
FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR FLORIDA WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR HEAVIER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION TOMORROW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS JUST EAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 80W
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 75W-79W WITH
ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVER CUBA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEST ATLC SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A
1024 MB HIGH NEAR 31N58W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH NEAR 44W
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N44W AND
CONTINUES TO 27N51W WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE TO NEAR 26N59W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 41W-47W. A WEAK 1019
MB SURFACE LOW IS SOUTH OF THE FRONT NEAR 27N48W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH IT ALONG 29N47W TO 23N50W. NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE TROUGH/LOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST ATLC
IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR
44N27W. BROAD UPPER RIDGING ALSO COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212331
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212331
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212131
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAY 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRES NEAR 10N79W TO
08N91W TO 09N100W TO 09N110W TO 06N120W TO A LOW PRES NEAR
10N129W TO 05N135W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N135W TO
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180
NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 83W AND 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 91W AND
94W...BETWEEN 100W AND 112W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS
BETWEEN 121W AND 124W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N
TO 08N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH
32N133W TO NEAR 20N113W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N W OF
113W. MODERATE TO FRESH NLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WATERS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN N SWELL MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. A REINFORCING SURGE N OF 30N IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD S ACROSS WATERS N OF 23N BETWEEN 115W-140W
FROM WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 12
FT.

THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN ARE ANALYZED AS A 1011 MB LOW NEAR
10N129W. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 10 FT ARE NOTED
WITHIN 210 NM OF THE LOW CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT. A CONTINUAL
WEAKENING OF THIS LOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WHERE A TRANSITION TO A SURFACE TROUGH IS LIKELY TO OCCUR WHILE
IT DRIFTS SWWD. BY WED AFTERNOON...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 8
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

$$
NR/JA

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212131
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAY 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRES NEAR 10N79W TO
08N91W TO 09N100W TO 09N110W TO 06N120W TO A LOW PRES NEAR
10N129W TO 05N135W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N135W TO
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180
NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 83W AND 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 91W AND
94W...BETWEEN 100W AND 112W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS
BETWEEN 121W AND 124W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N
TO 08N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH
32N133W TO NEAR 20N113W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N W OF
113W. MODERATE TO FRESH NLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WATERS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN N SWELL MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. A REINFORCING SURGE N OF 30N IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD S ACROSS WATERS N OF 23N BETWEEN 115W-140W
FROM WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 12
FT.

THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN ARE ANALYZED AS A 1011 MB LOW NEAR
10N129W. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 10 FT ARE NOTED
WITHIN 210 NM OF THE LOW CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT. A CONTINUAL
WEAKENING OF THIS LOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WHERE A TRANSITION TO A SURFACE TROUGH IS LIKELY TO OCCUR WHILE
IT DRIFTS SWWD. BY WED AFTERNOON...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 8
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

$$
NR/JA

000
AXNT20 KNHC 211754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W TO 05N39W MOVING
W AT 10 KT. EXAMINING GLOBAL MODEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANALYSES
AT THE 315K LEVEL...A MAXIMUM IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 37W-42W. IN ADDITION...A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS OBSERVED IN IMAGERY FROM THE EQUATOR TO
06N BETWEEN 36W-43W. A WEAK 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED WEST
OF THE WAVE NEAR 04N37W. AT THIS TIME ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE AND THE WEAK LOW MAY BE CONSOLIDATING AND RESULT IN A RE-
POSITIONING OR ADJUSTMENT OF THE WAVE AXIS AT 21/1800 UTC IF
NECESSARY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AND LOW CENTER FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 36W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N68W TO 16N66W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AREA OF MAXIMIZED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER THAT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 68W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO
AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY
WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT DUE TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERIES
OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
08N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N16W TO 04N20W TO 03N26W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 09W-18W...AND FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 21W-
25W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE EQUATOR
NEAR 28W TO 04N30W TO 06N34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RELATIVELY DRY AIR WITHIN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GULF THIS AFTERNON. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SURFACE
RIDGING THAT REMAINS ANCHORED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC WHICH RESULTS
IN PERSISTENT E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE
BASIN. LOOKING AHEAD...OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SKIRT THE SE
CONUS AND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL NE GULF WATERS. LASTLY...OF
NOTE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
DISPERSED AREA OF SMOKE OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF A LINE FROM
GALVESTON TEXAS TO THE NE CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N90W. THE SMOKE AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY DUE TO
NUMEROUS AGRICULTURAL AND WILD FIRES OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY W OF 72W ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
REGION NEAR 13N91W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES UNDER THIS UPPER LEVEL REGIME WITH E-SE TRADE WINDS
PERSISTING IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N AS THE MONSOON TROUGH IS
ANALYZED ALONG 10N NORTH OF PANAMA AND ACROSS CENTRAL COSTA
RICA. EAST OF 72W...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
WINDS DOMINATE AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT THAT SUPPORTS THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 68W IMPACTING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MORE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE THAN IN THE LAST FEW PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS MOISTURE STEMS
FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THAT IS
PROVIDING HISPANIOLA AND THE SURROUNDING REGION WITH MORE
OVERALL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TODAY. WHILE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH E-SE TRADES
PREVAILING...THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING HOURS WITH PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA SECTION...LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SYNOPTICALLY...
HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA CENTERED NEAR 29N82W AND CONTINUES TO BE SLOW
TO MOVE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION BRINGING WITH IT INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 22N BETWEEN 73W-
81W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY
IS OCCURRING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N59W.
FARTHER EAST...A NORTHWEST NORTH ATLC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 45N49W THAT LEADS TO BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 38W-60W AND
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N45W. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 27N54W TO 27N61W AND ALSO
EXHIBITS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE COLD
FRONT NEAR 31N46W TO 24N49W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 45 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1035 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 48N27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

000
AXNT20 KNHC 211754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W TO 05N39W MOVING
W AT 10 KT. EXAMINING GLOBAL MODEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANALYSES
AT THE 315K LEVEL...A MAXIMUM IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 37W-42W. IN ADDITION...A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS OBSERVED IN IMAGERY FROM THE EQUATOR TO
06N BETWEEN 36W-43W. A WEAK 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED WEST
OF THE WAVE NEAR 04N37W. AT THIS TIME ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE AND THE WEAK LOW MAY BE CONSOLIDATING AND RESULT IN A RE-
POSITIONING OR ADJUSTMENT OF THE WAVE AXIS AT 21/1800 UTC IF
NECESSARY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AND LOW CENTER FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 36W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N68W TO 16N66W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AREA OF MAXIMIZED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER THAT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 68W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO
AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY
WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT DUE TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERIES
OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
08N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N16W TO 04N20W TO 03N26W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 09W-18W...AND FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 21W-
25W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE EQUATOR
NEAR 28W TO 04N30W TO 06N34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RELATIVELY DRY AIR WITHIN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GULF THIS AFTERNON. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SURFACE
RIDGING THAT REMAINS ANCHORED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC WHICH RESULTS
IN PERSISTENT E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE
BASIN. LOOKING AHEAD...OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SKIRT THE SE
CONUS AND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL NE GULF WATERS. LASTLY...OF
NOTE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
DISPERSED AREA OF SMOKE OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF A LINE FROM
GALVESTON TEXAS TO THE NE CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N90W. THE SMOKE AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY DUE TO
NUMEROUS AGRICULTURAL AND WILD FIRES OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY W OF 72W ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
REGION NEAR 13N91W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES UNDER THIS UPPER LEVEL REGIME WITH E-SE TRADE WINDS
PERSISTING IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N AS THE MONSOON TROUGH IS
ANALYZED ALONG 10N NORTH OF PANAMA AND ACROSS CENTRAL COSTA
RICA. EAST OF 72W...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
WINDS DOMINATE AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT THAT SUPPORTS THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 68W IMPACTING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MORE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE THAN IN THE LAST FEW PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS MOISTURE STEMS
FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THAT IS
PROVIDING HISPANIOLA AND THE SURROUNDING REGION WITH MORE
OVERALL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TODAY. WHILE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH E-SE TRADES
PREVAILING...THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING HOURS WITH PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA SECTION...LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SYNOPTICALLY...
HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA CENTERED NEAR 29N82W AND CONTINUES TO BE SLOW
TO MOVE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION BRINGING WITH IT INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 22N BETWEEN 73W-
81W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY
IS OCCURRING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N59W.
FARTHER EAST...A NORTHWEST NORTH ATLC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 45N49W THAT LEADS TO BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 38W-60W AND
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N45W. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 27N54W TO 27N61W AND ALSO
EXHIBITS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE COLD
FRONT NEAR 31N46W TO 24N49W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 45 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1035 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 48N27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211733
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211733
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211733
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211733
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211531
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAY 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM A LOW PRES NEAR 10N80W TO
12N89W TO 10N96W TO 10N108W TO 08N117W TO 12N126W TO 07N135W...
THEN TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ W OF 07N135W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
AXIS E OF 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 104W...AND WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 111W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE TO AROUND 20N110W. MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS WITH SEAS
TO 7-8 FT IN N SWELL MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW
SWELL. A REINFORCING SURGE N OF 30N LATER TODAY WILL SPREAD S
ACROSS WATERS N OF 20N BETWEEN 115W-140W THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH
SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 13 FT IN LONG PERIOD N SWELL WED THROUGH THU
NEAR 30N120W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON FRI WITH
WINDS 15 KT AND SEAS 5-7 FT ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS BY SAT.

A TROPICAL LOW CROSSING THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA NEAR 10N80W IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE SW CARIBBEAN WED. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AS THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A SECOND WEAKER LOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N86W EARLY
THU...WITH THE LOW MEANDERING IN THAT AREA THIS WEEKEND.

THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN... AND ARE DEPICTED AS
A SW-NE ORIENTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 09N129W TO 14N127W.
NE TO E WINDS AT 20-25 KT AND SEAS 7-10 FT ARE NOTED WITHIN 300
NM NW OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT THE TROUGH TO DRIFT W AND WEAKEN AS
A BREAK IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. NE TRADES W OF THE TROUGH WILL
DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT...WHILE SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN
8 FT ON WED.

GFS MODEL SHOWS NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON FRI NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING.

$$
MUNDELL

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211531
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAY 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM A LOW PRES NEAR 10N80W TO
12N89W TO 10N96W TO 10N108W TO 08N117W TO 12N126W TO 07N135W...
THEN TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ W OF 07N135W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
AXIS E OF 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 104W...AND WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 111W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE TO AROUND 20N110W. MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS WITH SEAS
TO 7-8 FT IN N SWELL MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW
SWELL. A REINFORCING SURGE N OF 30N LATER TODAY WILL SPREAD S
ACROSS WATERS N OF 20N BETWEEN 115W-140W THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH
SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 13 FT IN LONG PERIOD N SWELL WED THROUGH THU
NEAR 30N120W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON FRI WITH
WINDS 15 KT AND SEAS 5-7 FT ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS BY SAT.

A TROPICAL LOW CROSSING THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA NEAR 10N80W IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE SW CARIBBEAN WED. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AS THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A SECOND WEAKER LOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N86W EARLY
THU...WITH THE LOW MEANDERING IN THAT AREA THIS WEEKEND.

THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN... AND ARE DEPICTED AS
A SW-NE ORIENTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 09N129W TO 14N127W.
NE TO E WINDS AT 20-25 KT AND SEAS 7-10 FT ARE NOTED WITHIN 300
NM NW OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT THE TROUGH TO DRIFT W AND WEAKEN AS
A BREAK IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. NE TRADES W OF THE TROUGH WILL
DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT...WHILE SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN
8 FT ON WED.

GFS MODEL SHOWS NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON FRI NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING.

$$
MUNDELL

000
AXNT20 KNHC 211152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 8N38W TO EQ40W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH CURVATURE EVIDENT ON THE
700 MB STREAMLINES AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. WAVE ALSO
DISRUPTS THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N63W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
TO NEAR 8N65W MOVING W NEAR 5 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A WEAK
MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH A WEAK
CURVATURE ON THE 700 MB STREAMLINES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE W TROPICAL ATLC/E
CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 58W-66W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W CONTINUING ALONG 5N21W TO 3N26W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N34W TO 2N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 4N6W TO 5N12W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF
THE COAST OF SW AFRICA FROM 3N-9N E OF 17W TO THE PRIME
MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-
5N BETWEEN 19W-30W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 30W-38W AND FROM 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
41W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE GEORGIA OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR 24N80W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE W GULF ACROSS S MEXICO
NEAR VERACRUZ TO OVER THE SE CONUS NEAR THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS
BORDER COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER THE E
GULF WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATING THE GULF THIS MORNING...THUS
CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL BUT THE FAR W GULF WHERE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE N OF 23N W OF 94W. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR E GULF AND
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY WED BEFORE THE UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
INTO THE NE GULF FRI THEN DRIFT S THROUGH SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
GIVING THE CARIBBEAN S OF 17N SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AREA N OF 17N
IS UNDER NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER FLOW IS
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT OVER THE S CARIBBEAN AND COUPLED
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W
ALONG 11N80W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 74W-84W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
OVER PORTIONS OF E CUBA AND FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 74W-80W. THE E
CARIBBEAN IS COVERED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS OVER THE REGION WITH STRONGER WINDS AT TIMES OFF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH MID WEEK.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG
THE S COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN BAHIA DE YUMA TO
BAHIA DE OCOA. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL
PERSIST TODAY WITH THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TO BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND WHEN
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY OCCUR. ANY AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE PRONE TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING. MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE MAY INCREASE
ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLAND TONIGHT INTO WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR
24N80W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND IS AMPLIFYING AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE FAR W ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS
NEAR 21N72W TO BEYOND 32N77W AND IS ENHANCING THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-32N W OF 78W TO THE
FLORIDA COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR
33N62W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM
ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA E OF 79W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N47W TO 28N54W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES TO 27N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 29N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE EXTENDING
FROM 29N48W THROUGH AN EQUALLY WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
27N48W TO 25N49W. THIS FEATURE IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1035 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE NW
PORTION FRI SLOWLY MOVING E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH
SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

000
AXNT20 KNHC 211152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 8N38W TO EQ40W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH CURVATURE EVIDENT ON THE
700 MB STREAMLINES AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. WAVE ALSO
DISRUPTS THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N63W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
TO NEAR 8N65W MOVING W NEAR 5 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A WEAK
MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH A WEAK
CURVATURE ON THE 700 MB STREAMLINES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE W TROPICAL ATLC/E
CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 58W-66W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W CONTINUING ALONG 5N21W TO 3N26W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N34W TO 2N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 4N6W TO 5N12W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF
THE COAST OF SW AFRICA FROM 3N-9N E OF 17W TO THE PRIME
MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-
5N BETWEEN 19W-30W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 30W-38W AND FROM 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
41W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE GEORGIA OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR 24N80W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE W GULF ACROSS S MEXICO
NEAR VERACRUZ TO OVER THE SE CONUS NEAR THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS
BORDER COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER THE E
GULF WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATING THE GULF THIS MORNING...THUS
CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL BUT THE FAR W GULF WHERE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE N OF 23N W OF 94W. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR E GULF AND
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY WED BEFORE THE UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
INTO THE NE GULF FRI THEN DRIFT S THROUGH SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
GIVING THE CARIBBEAN S OF 17N SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AREA N OF 17N
IS UNDER NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER FLOW IS
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT OVER THE S CARIBBEAN AND COUPLED
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W
ALONG 11N80W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 74W-84W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
OVER PORTIONS OF E CUBA AND FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 74W-80W. THE E
CARIBBEAN IS COVERED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS OVER THE REGION WITH STRONGER WINDS AT TIMES OFF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH MID WEEK.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG
THE S COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN BAHIA DE YUMA TO
BAHIA DE OCOA. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL
PERSIST TODAY WITH THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TO BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND WHEN
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY OCCUR. ANY AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE PRONE TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING. MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE MAY INCREASE
ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLAND TONIGHT INTO WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR
24N80W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND IS AMPLIFYING AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE FAR W ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS
NEAR 21N72W TO BEYOND 32N77W AND IS ENHANCING THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-32N W OF 78W TO THE
FLORIDA COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR
33N62W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM
ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA E OF 79W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N47W TO 28N54W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES TO 27N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 29N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE EXTENDING
FROM 29N48W THROUGH AN EQUALLY WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
27N48W TO 25N49W. THIS FEATURE IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1035 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE NW
PORTION FRI SLOWLY MOVING E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH
SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

000
AXNT20 KNHC 211152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 8N38W TO EQ40W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH CURVATURE EVIDENT ON THE
700 MB STREAMLINES AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. WAVE ALSO
DISRUPTS THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N63W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
TO NEAR 8N65W MOVING W NEAR 5 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A WEAK
MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH A WEAK
CURVATURE ON THE 700 MB STREAMLINES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE W TROPICAL ATLC/E
CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 58W-66W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W CONTINUING ALONG 5N21W TO 3N26W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N34W TO 2N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 4N6W TO 5N12W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF
THE COAST OF SW AFRICA FROM 3N-9N E OF 17W TO THE PRIME
MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-
5N BETWEEN 19W-30W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 30W-38W AND FROM 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
41W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE GEORGIA OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR 24N80W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE W GULF ACROSS S MEXICO
NEAR VERACRUZ TO OVER THE SE CONUS NEAR THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS
BORDER COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER THE E
GULF WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATING THE GULF THIS MORNING...THUS
CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL BUT THE FAR W GULF WHERE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE N OF 23N W OF 94W. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR E GULF AND
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY WED BEFORE THE UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
INTO THE NE GULF FRI THEN DRIFT S THROUGH SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
GIVING THE CARIBBEAN S OF 17N SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AREA N OF 17N
IS UNDER NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER FLOW IS
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT OVER THE S CARIBBEAN AND COUPLED
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W
ALONG 11N80W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 74W-84W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
OVER PORTIONS OF E CUBA AND FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 74W-80W. THE E
CARIBBEAN IS COVERED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS OVER THE REGION WITH STRONGER WINDS AT TIMES OFF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH MID WEEK.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG
THE S COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN BAHIA DE YUMA TO
BAHIA DE OCOA. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL
PERSIST TODAY WITH THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TO BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND WHEN
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY OCCUR. ANY AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE PRONE TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING. MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE MAY INCREASE
ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLAND TONIGHT INTO WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR
24N80W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND IS AMPLIFYING AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE FAR W ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS
NEAR 21N72W TO BEYOND 32N77W AND IS ENHANCING THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-32N W OF 78W TO THE
FLORIDA COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR
33N62W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM
ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA E OF 79W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N47W TO 28N54W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES TO 27N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 29N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE EXTENDING
FROM 29N48W THROUGH AN EQUALLY WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
27N48W TO 25N49W. THIS FEATURE IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1035 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE NW
PORTION FRI SLOWLY MOVING E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH
SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

000
AXNT20 KNHC 211152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 8N38W TO EQ40W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH CURVATURE EVIDENT ON THE
700 MB STREAMLINES AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. WAVE ALSO
DISRUPTS THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N63W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
TO NEAR 8N65W MOVING W NEAR 5 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A WEAK
MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH A WEAK
CURVATURE ON THE 700 MB STREAMLINES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE W TROPICAL ATLC/E
CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 58W-66W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W CONTINUING ALONG 5N21W TO 3N26W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N34W TO 2N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 4N6W TO 5N12W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF
THE COAST OF SW AFRICA FROM 3N-9N E OF 17W TO THE PRIME
MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-
5N BETWEEN 19W-30W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 30W-38W AND FROM 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
41W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE GEORGIA OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR 24N80W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE W GULF ACROSS S MEXICO
NEAR VERACRUZ TO OVER THE SE CONUS NEAR THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS
BORDER COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER THE E
GULF WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATING THE GULF THIS MORNING...THUS
CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL BUT THE FAR W GULF WHERE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE N OF 23N W OF 94W. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR E GULF AND
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY WED BEFORE THE UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
INTO THE NE GULF FRI THEN DRIFT S THROUGH SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
GIVING THE CARIBBEAN S OF 17N SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AREA N OF 17N
IS UNDER NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER FLOW IS
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT OVER THE S CARIBBEAN AND COUPLED
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W
ALONG 11N80W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 74W-84W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
OVER PORTIONS OF E CUBA AND FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 74W-80W. THE E
CARIBBEAN IS COVERED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS OVER THE REGION WITH STRONGER WINDS AT TIMES OFF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH MID WEEK.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG
THE S COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN BAHIA DE YUMA TO
BAHIA DE OCOA. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL
PERSIST TODAY WITH THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TO BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND WHEN
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY OCCUR. ANY AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE PRONE TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING. MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE MAY INCREASE
ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLAND TONIGHT INTO WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR
24N80W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND IS AMPLIFYING AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE FAR W ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS
NEAR 21N72W TO BEYOND 32N77W AND IS ENHANCING THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-32N W OF 78W TO THE
FLORIDA COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR
33N62W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM
ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA E OF 79W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N47W TO 28N54W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES TO 27N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 29N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE EXTENDING
FROM 29N48W THROUGH AN EQUALLY WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
27N48W TO 25N49W. THIS FEATURE IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1035 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE NW
PORTION FRI SLOWLY MOVING E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH
SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211135
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211135
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210951
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAY 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W AND THEN NW FROM THE
COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER AT 08N78W ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
TIP OF PANAMA TO 10N87W TO 10N107W...THEN TURNS WSW TO 08N116W
...THEN NW TO 12N126W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY. SCATTEROMETER
WINDS INDICATE AN ITCZ FORMS SW OF THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN AT
12N127W AND CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED TO THE E OF 120W WITHIN
150 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS...AND ALSO WITHIN 75 NM OF ITCZ
AXIS BETWEEN 131W AND 137W.

A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL REACH
THE SW CARIBBEAN ON WED NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A
SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS NEAR 11N81W
AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH. A SECOND
LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS IN THE PACIFIC WATERS NEAR 10N86W WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WITH THE LOW MEANDERING IN THAT AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.

MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON FRI NIGHT AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ON SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
ON SUN.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW TO SE FROM 32N135W TO 20N110W.
NW WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT 10-15 KT ALONG THE ENTIRE W SHORE OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT. NORTHERLY
WINDS AT 15-20 KT CONTINUE ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL PACIFIC WATERS
TO THE N OF 30N BETWEEN 120W-130W WITH SEAS MAXING AT 8 FT IN
THE ASSOCIATED N SWELL THAT CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. A REINFORCING N SURGE AT 20 TO 25 KT
WILL ARRIVE ALONG 32N LATER TODAY WITH ONLY 20 KT WINDS
SPREADING S ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS TO THE N OF 20N BETWEEN
115W-140W ON THU NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 13 FT IN LONG
PERIOD N SWELL ON WED INTO THU NEAR 30N120W. SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE N OF 28N AS
EARLY AS SUNRISE ON THU...AND MAY REACH AS FAR S AS 25N NEAR
BAHIA SANTA MARIA LATE THU NIGHT MOSTLY IN REFRACTIVE SWELL.
WIND/SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH/SUBSIDE ON FRI WITH WINDS 15 KT
AND SEAS 5-7 FT ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS ON SAT.

THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN HAVE WEAKENED TO SW-NE ORIENTATED TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 10N130W TO 15N126W. NE TO E WINDS AT 20-25 KT
AND SEAS 7-10 FT ARE NOTED WITHIN 300 NM NW OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT
THE SW-NE ORIENTATED TROUGH TO DRIFT W AND EXTEND FROM 09N133W
TO 14N128W TONIGHT...AND FROM 09N136W TO 11N133W TO 13N128W ON
WED NIGHT...ALL THE WHILE INTERRUPTING THE ITCZ. THE NE TRADES
TO THE W OF THE TROUGH WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT ON WED.

ALOFT...A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME...ORIGINATING FROM THE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN...
AND OTHER CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 116W-
121W...CONCENTRATES INTO A 180 NM WIDE PLUME FROM 12N119W TO
23N106W...THEN THE PLUME CONTINUES NE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND
ACROSS THE W GULF OF MEXICO WHERE IT EVAPORATES WITH ONLY A
SMALL AMOUNT OF THE MOISTURE INDICATED OVER SE TEXAS THIS
MORNING. A SECOND TROPICAL PLUME ORIGINATES FROM ITCZ CONVECTION
BETWEEN 136W-148W AND STREAMS NNE WITHIN 300 NM OF A LINE FROM
12N140W TO 32N130W...WITH PLUME THEN WIDENING AS IT SPILLS NE
AND LATER E ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

$$
NELSON

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210951
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAY 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W AND THEN NW FROM THE
COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER AT 08N78W ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
TIP OF PANAMA TO 10N87W TO 10N107W...THEN TURNS WSW TO 08N116W
...THEN NW TO 12N126W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY. SCATTEROMETER
WINDS INDICATE AN ITCZ FORMS SW OF THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN AT
12N127W AND CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED TO THE E OF 120W WITHIN
150 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS...AND ALSO WITHIN 75 NM OF ITCZ
AXIS BETWEEN 131W AND 137W.

A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL REACH
THE SW CARIBBEAN ON WED NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A
SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS NEAR 11N81W
AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH. A SECOND
LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS IN THE PACIFIC WATERS NEAR 10N86W WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WITH THE LOW MEANDERING IN THAT AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.

MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON FRI NIGHT AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ON SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
ON SUN.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW TO SE FROM 32N135W TO 20N110W.
NW WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT 10-15 KT ALONG THE ENTIRE W SHORE OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT. NORTHERLY
WINDS AT 15-20 KT CONTINUE ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL PACIFIC WATERS
TO THE N OF 30N BETWEEN 120W-130W WITH SEAS MAXING AT 8 FT IN
THE ASSOCIATED N SWELL THAT CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. A REINFORCING N SURGE AT 20 TO 25 KT
WILL ARRIVE ALONG 32N LATER TODAY WITH ONLY 20 KT WINDS
SPREADING S ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS TO THE N OF 20N BETWEEN
115W-140W ON THU NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 13 FT IN LONG
PERIOD N SWELL ON WED INTO THU NEAR 30N120W. SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE N OF 28N AS
EARLY AS SUNRISE ON THU...AND MAY REACH AS FAR S AS 25N NEAR
BAHIA SANTA MARIA LATE THU NIGHT MOSTLY IN REFRACTIVE SWELL.
WIND/SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH/SUBSIDE ON FRI WITH WINDS 15 KT
AND SEAS 5-7 FT ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS ON SAT.

THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN HAVE WEAKENED TO SW-NE ORIENTATED TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 10N130W TO 15N126W. NE TO E WINDS AT 20-25 KT
AND SEAS 7-10 FT ARE NOTED WITHIN 300 NM NW OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT
THE SW-NE ORIENTATED TROUGH TO DRIFT W AND EXTEND FROM 09N133W
TO 14N128W TONIGHT...AND FROM 09N136W TO 11N133W TO 13N128W ON
WED NIGHT...ALL THE WHILE INTERRUPTING THE ITCZ. THE NE TRADES
TO THE W OF THE TROUGH WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT ON WED.

ALOFT...A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME...ORIGINATING FROM THE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN...
AND OTHER CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 116W-
121W...CONCENTRATES INTO A 180 NM WIDE PLUME FROM 12N119W TO
23N106W...THEN THE PLUME CONTINUES NE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND
ACROSS THE W GULF OF MEXICO WHERE IT EVAPORATES WITH ONLY A
SMALL AMOUNT OF THE MOISTURE INDICATED OVER SE TEXAS THIS
MORNING. A SECOND TROPICAL PLUME ORIGINATES FROM ITCZ CONVECTION
BETWEEN 136W-148W AND STREAMS NNE WITHIN 300 NM OF A LINE FROM
12N140W TO 32N130W...WITH PLUME THEN WIDENING AS IT SPILLS NE
AND LATER E ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

$$
NELSON

000
AXNT20 KNHC 210547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 7N36W TO EQ38W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A WEAK MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH CURVATURE EVIDENT ON THE 700 MB
STREAMLINES AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. WAVE ALSO DISRUPTS THE
ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N63W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
TO NEAR 6N65W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A
MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAT IS
BEGINNING TO SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH A WEAK
CURVATURE ON THE 700 MB STREAMLINES. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE W TROPICAL ATLC/E CARIBBEAN S OF 18N
BETWEEN 57W-65W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W CONTINUING ALONG 4N23W TO 4N27W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N31W TO 4N35W THEN RESUMES W OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 1N39W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA S OF 11N E OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 12W-20W...
FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 25W-38W...AND FROM 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
40W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE GEORGIA TO OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR MIAMI. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAVE DISSIPATED OVER
ALL BUT SE FLORIDA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE E
COAST OF MEXICO AND TEXAS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
OVER THE E GULF WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATING THE GULF
TONIGHT...THUS CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL BUT THE FAR W GULF WHERE LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS AND
MEXICO N OF 21N. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR E GULF AND OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY WED BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT MAY DROP INTO THE NE
GULF FRI SLOWLY SINKING S THROUGH SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA GIVING
THE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AREA N OF 16N IS UNDER
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER FLOW IS DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT OVER THE S CARIBBEAN AND IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 67W-84W.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE S COAST BETWEEN GUANTANAMO AND THE GULF
OF ANA MARIA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 75W-81W.
THE E CARIBBEAN IS COVERED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS OVER THE REGION WITH STRONGER WINDS AT TIMES OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH MID WEEK.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED
WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE SE COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND LA ROMANA.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL PERSIST TOMORROW
WITH THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND WHEN PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY OCCUR. ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE PRONE TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE MAY INCREASE ACTIVITY OVER THE
ISLAND TUE INTO WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS AMPLIFYING
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FAR W ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS NEAR 24N75W TO BEYOND 32N78W AND IS ENHANCING THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 79W-81W
INCLUDING SE FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB
HIGH NEAR 33N62W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR
32N48W ALONG 28N55W TO 27N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45
NM OF THE FRONT E OF 54W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE
EXTENDING FROM 29N48W THROUGH AN EQUALLY WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE
LOW NEAR 27N48W TO 24N46W. THIS FEATURE IS NOT PRODUCING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES. A COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION FRI SLOWLY MOVING E ACROSS THE WATERS N
OF 27N THROUGH SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

000
AXNT20 KNHC 210547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 7N36W TO EQ38W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A WEAK MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH CURVATURE EVIDENT ON THE 700 MB
STREAMLINES AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. WAVE ALSO DISRUPTS THE
ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N63W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
TO NEAR 6N65W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A
MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAT IS
BEGINNING TO SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH A WEAK
CURVATURE ON THE 700 MB STREAMLINES. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE W TROPICAL ATLC/E CARIBBEAN S OF 18N
BETWEEN 57W-65W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W CONTINUING ALONG 4N23W TO 4N27W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N31W TO 4N35W THEN RESUMES W OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 1N39W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA S OF 11N E OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 12W-20W...
FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 25W-38W...AND FROM 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
40W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE GEORGIA TO OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR MIAMI. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAVE DISSIPATED OVER
ALL BUT SE FLORIDA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE E
COAST OF MEXICO AND TEXAS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
OVER THE E GULF WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATING THE GULF
TONIGHT...THUS CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL BUT THE FAR W GULF WHERE LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS AND
MEXICO N OF 21N. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR E GULF AND OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY WED BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT MAY DROP INTO THE NE
GULF FRI SLOWLY SINKING S THROUGH SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA GIVING
THE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AREA N OF 16N IS UNDER
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER FLOW IS DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT OVER THE S CARIBBEAN AND IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 67W-84W.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE S COAST BETWEEN GUANTANAMO AND THE GULF
OF ANA MARIA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 75W-81W.
THE E CARIBBEAN IS COVERED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS OVER THE REGION WITH STRONGER WINDS AT TIMES OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH MID WEEK.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED
WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE SE COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND LA ROMANA.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL PERSIST TOMORROW
WITH THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND WHEN PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY OCCUR. ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE PRONE TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE MAY INCREASE ACTIVITY OVER THE
ISLAND TUE INTO WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS AMPLIFYING
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FAR W ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS NEAR 24N75W TO BEYOND 32N78W AND IS ENHANCING THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 79W-81W
INCLUDING SE FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB
HIGH NEAR 33N62W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR
32N48W ALONG 28N55W TO 27N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45
NM OF THE FRONT E OF 54W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE
EXTENDING FROM 29N48W THROUGH AN EQUALLY WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE
LOW NEAR 27N48W TO 24N46W. THIS FEATURE IS NOT PRODUCING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES. A COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION FRI SLOWLY MOVING E ACROSS THE WATERS N
OF 27N THROUGH SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210503
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON MAY 20 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210503
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON MAY 20 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210502
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON MAY 20 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210502
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON MAY 20 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON MAY 20 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON MAY 20 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210240
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAY 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 10N104W TO
11N123W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N129W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 80W AND 92W...WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 96W AND 99W AND WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 121W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE 1010 MB LOW REMNANT OF ALVIN IS CENTERED NEAR 12N126W ALONG
A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 10N127W TO
14N126W. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 20-
25 KT WINDS WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER. THIS
SYSTEM IS GENERATING MAXIMUM SEAS OF 10 FT. A BROAD MIX OF SWELL
IS MAINTAINING SEAS UP TO 10 FT ELSEWHERE FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN
122W-130W. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE REMNANT LOW OF
ALVIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE MAINLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS WITH AN AREA OF FRESH WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM TO THE N
OF THE LOW CENTER.

A 1044 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 50N148W EXTENDS A
RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N111W. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE PRODUCING NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT ALONG THE
ENTIRE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS
OF 4-6 FT. A SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15-20 KT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL PACIFIC WATERS...ROUGHLY N OF 29N BETWEEN
120W AND 128W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN N SWELL. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT EARLY ON
WED AND UP TO 30 KT FROM WED AFTERNOON TO EARLY THU AS HIGH PRES
N OF AREA INTENSIFIES.

$$
NR/MKH

000
AXNT20 KNHC 202339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 7N34W TO EQ36W MOVING WEST AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE SHOWS A GOOD SIGNAL IN 700 MB STREAMLINES AND
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. IT ALSO COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N62W TO 9N63W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
THE WAVE IS PARTIALLY OVER SOUTH AMERICA...BUT THE MOISTURE
SIGNAL IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY EXTENDS UP TO 15N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM TO EITHER SIDE
SOUTH OF 12N. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS
STILL MOVING OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...SO A RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL IS STILL PRESENT OVER THIS AREA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
11N15W TO ALONG 5N20W 4N30W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 4N30W AND
CONTINUES ALONG EQ38W 3S49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 17W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 22W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SPREADS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FLORIDA...ALONG WITH BROAD SURFACE RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC. DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE MAJORITY OF
THE BASIN AROUND BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE
EAST PACIFIC JUST SOUTH OF GUATEMALA. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS DOWN THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THIS COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY HAS LED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FLORIDA WITH SOME BEING SEVERE. THE
ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA HAS DIED DOWN SOME...BUT HEAVY
ACTIVITY STILL SPREADS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS. PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST WINDS SPREAD THROUGHOUT
THE BASIN RANGING FROM 10-15 KT WITH A FEW AREAS OF 20 KT WINDS
OVER THE WESTERN GULF ESPECIALLY ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH
MOSTLY DRY AIR. THE DRY AIR IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY
HAVE LED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS INCLUDING
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND PUERTO RICO. HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 11N FROM
COSTA RICA TO COLOMBIA INCLUDING PANAMA. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CONNECTED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH BOTH COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA. THE ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THAT AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVING INTO THE SE
CARIBBEAN JUST WEST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EAST OF 63W SOUTH OF 16N. THERE IS STILL SOME MOISTURE WITH
THE WAVE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND AS THE WAVE MOVES
WEST MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR OVER
THE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT DOMINATES
WITH A FEW 25 KT WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MOIST
CONDITIONS AND LIKELY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SE CORNER
MOVES WEST...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND WILL SUPPORT HEAVIER
THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE
TOMORROW OVER PUERTO RICO AND SPREAD WESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA MAINLY CONCENTRATED BETWEEN 70W-73W. AS
THE SUN GOES DOWN THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL PERSIST TOMORROW WITH THE MOST
LIKELY PRECIPITATION TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND WHEN PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY OCCUR. ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE PRONE TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. MOISTURE
FROM A TROPICAL WAVE MAY INCREASE ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLAND ON
WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IS
SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WHICH CONTINUE INTO THE ATLC TO NEAR 78W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 76W SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST ATLC AROUND A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 35N62W. FARTHER EAST...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 49W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N49W AND CONTINUES ALONG 29N55W
27N59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS. A WEAK
1019 MB SURFACE LOW IS TO THE EAST NEAR 27N48W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS THROUGH THE LOW CENTER FROM 30N49W 24N44W. NO SHOWERS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY BROAD SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB
HIGH NEAR 44N29W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR 43N26W. BROAD UPPER RIDGING ALSO COVERS THE
TROPICAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON

000
AXNT20 KNHC 202339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 7N34W TO EQ36W MOVING WEST AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE SHOWS A GOOD SIGNAL IN 700 MB STREAMLINES AND
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. IT ALSO COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N62W TO 9N63W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
THE WAVE IS PARTIALLY OVER SOUTH AMERICA...BUT THE MOISTURE
SIGNAL IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY EXTENDS UP TO 15N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM TO EITHER SIDE
SOUTH OF 12N. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS
STILL MOVING OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...SO A RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL IS STILL PRESENT OVER THIS AREA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
11N15W TO ALONG 5N20W 4N30W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 4N30W AND
CONTINUES ALONG EQ38W 3S49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 17W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 22W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SPREADS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FLORIDA...ALONG WITH BROAD SURFACE RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC. DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE MAJORITY OF
THE BASIN AROUND BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE
EAST PACIFIC JUST SOUTH OF GUATEMALA. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS DOWN THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THIS COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY HAS LED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FLORIDA WITH SOME BEING SEVERE. THE
ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA HAS DIED DOWN SOME...BUT HEAVY
ACTIVITY STILL SPREADS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS. PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST WINDS SPREAD THROUGHOUT
THE BASIN RANGING FROM 10-15 KT WITH A FEW AREAS OF 20 KT WINDS
OVER THE WESTERN GULF ESPECIALLY ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH
MOSTLY DRY AIR. THE DRY AIR IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY
HAVE LED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS INCLUDING
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND PUERTO RICO. HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 11N FROM
COSTA RICA TO COLOMBIA INCLUDING PANAMA. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CONNECTED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH BOTH COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA. THE ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THAT AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVING INTO THE SE
CARIBBEAN JUST WEST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EAST OF 63W SOUTH OF 16N. THERE IS STILL SOME MOISTURE WITH
THE WAVE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND AS THE WAVE MOVES
WEST MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR OVER
THE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT DOMINATES
WITH A FEW 25 KT WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MOIST
CONDITIONS AND LIKELY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SE CORNER
MOVES WEST...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND WILL SUPPORT HEAVIER
THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE
TOMORROW OVER PUERTO RICO AND SPREAD WESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA MAINLY CONCENTRATED BETWEEN 70W-73W. AS
THE SUN GOES DOWN THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL PERSIST TOMORROW WITH THE MOST
LIKELY PRECIPITATION TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND WHEN PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY OCCUR. ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE PRONE TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. MOISTURE
FROM A TROPICAL WAVE MAY INCREASE ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLAND ON
WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IS
SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WHICH CONTINUE INTO THE ATLC TO NEAR 78W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 76W SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST ATLC AROUND A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 35N62W. FARTHER EAST...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 49W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N49W AND CONTINUES ALONG 29N55W
27N59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS. A WEAK
1019 MB SURFACE LOW IS TO THE EAST NEAR 27N48W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS THROUGH THE LOW CENTER FROM 30N49W 24N44W. NO SHOWERS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY BROAD SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB
HIGH NEAR 44N29W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR 43N26W. BROAD UPPER RIDGING ALSO COVERS THE
TROPICAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202338
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON MAY 20 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202338
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON MAY 20 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202137
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2015 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 9N85W TO 10N98W
TO 07N117W TO 12N124W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N126W TO
05N135W TO 07N140W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 77W AND 111W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 111W AND 124W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 132W AND 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE 1012 MB LOW REMNANT OF ALVIN IS CENTERED NEAR 12N126W ALONG
A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 10N125W TO
14N125W. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 20-
25 KT WINDS WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER. THIS
SYSTEM IS GENERATING MAXIMUM SEAS OF 10 FT. A BROAD MIX OF SWELL
IS MAINTAINING SEAS UP TO 8 FT ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE AREA BOUNDED
BY 11N-16N BETWEEN 121W-130W. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
REMNANT LOW OF ALVIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE MAINLY WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH AN AREA OF FRESH WINDS WITHIN
ABOUT 120 NM TO THE N OF THE LOW CENTER.

A 1030 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 36N137W EXTENDS A
RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N112W. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE PRODUCING NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT ALONG THE
ENTIRE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS
OF 4-6 FT. IN ADDITION...A SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15-20 KT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL PACIFIC WATERS...ROUGHLY N OF 28N
BETWEEN 119W AND 128W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN N SWELL.
THESE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT EARLY
ON WED AS HIGH PRES N OF AREA INTENSIFIES.


$$
NR/MKH

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202137
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2015 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 9N85W TO 10N98W
TO 07N117W TO 12N124W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N126W TO
05N135W TO 07N140W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 77W AND 111W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 111W AND 124W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 132W AND 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE 1012 MB LOW REMNANT OF ALVIN IS CENTERED NEAR 12N126W ALONG
A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 10N125W TO
14N125W. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 20-
25 KT WINDS WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER. THIS
SYSTEM IS GENERATING MAXIMUM SEAS OF 10 FT. A BROAD MIX OF SWELL
IS MAINTAINING SEAS UP TO 8 FT ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE AREA BOUNDED
BY 11N-16N BETWEEN 121W-130W. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
REMNANT LOW OF ALVIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE MAINLY WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH AN AREA OF FRESH WINDS WITHIN
ABOUT 120 NM TO THE N OF THE LOW CENTER.

A 1030 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 36N137W EXTENDS A
RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N112W. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE PRODUCING NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT ALONG THE
ENTIRE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS
OF 4-6 FT. IN ADDITION...A SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15-20 KT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL PACIFIC WATERS...ROUGHLY N OF 28N
BETWEEN 119W AND 128W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN N SWELL.
THESE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT EARLY
ON WED AS HIGH PRES N OF AREA INTENSIFIES.


$$
NR/MKH

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W TO 07N33W MOVING
W AT 10-15 KT. EXAMINING GLOBAL MODEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANALYSES AT THE 315K LEVEL...A MAXIMUM IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WAVE AXIS. IN ADDITION...A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IS OBSERVED IN IMAGERY FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N BETWEEN 32W-
39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 30W-
40W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N63W TO 14N60W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN AMPLIFIED NORTHWARD MAXIMUM OF
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER THAT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND AREAS TO THE EAST FROM 08N-17N BETWEEN 56W-62W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-14N BETWEEN 57W-63W.
THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT DUE
TO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERIES LOCATED OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
06N15W TO 04N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 04N20W TO 02N34W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 37W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 04N TO 06N15W TO 06N19W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-08N BETWEEN 20W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF W OF 85W THAT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING ANCHORED IN THE WESTERN ATLC.
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA HOWEVER...THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS LESSENED BY A WEAK MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH FOCUS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W. THIS FEATURE IS RESULTING IN WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS E OF 82W ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS
AND INLAND AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE SURFACE RIDGING
PROVIDING SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY W OF 72W ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
REGION NEAR 14N93W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES UNDER THIS UPPER LEVEL REGIME WITH E-SE TRADE WINDS
PERSISTING IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 12N AS THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 09N
ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. EAST OF 72W...SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS DOMINATE AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN OVERALL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT SUPPORTS THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W IMPACTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A MODERATELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REMAINING MOSTLY N OF 20N.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PAST FEW
DAYS WITH E-SE TRADES PREVAILING AND THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OCCURING IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING HOURS
WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
BEGINNING TO INITIATE OVER INLAND AREAS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND A FEW ISOLATE SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 69W-72W. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA SECTION...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS SYNOPTICALLY...RESULTING IN HIGHER PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND CONTINUES TO MOVE E-NE INTO THE SW NORTH
ATLC REGION BRINGING WITH IT INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING W OF A LINE FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
NEAR 23N75W TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 32N80W. THIS
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ABOVE SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1028
MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF BERMUDA NEAR 37N64W. FARTHER EAST...A
NORTHWEST NORTH ATLC UPEPR LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE
AREA NEAR 41N53W THAT LEADS TO BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 45W-70W AND SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N51W. THE COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 28N62W AND ALSO EXHIBITS A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE COLD FRONT NEAR 29N55W TO
24N64W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. IN ADDITION...TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...A WEAK
1019 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N48W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM OF THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES AND WITHIN
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23N44W TO 27N45W. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR
43N29W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W TO 07N33W MOVING
W AT 10-15 KT. EXAMINING GLOBAL MODEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANALYSES AT THE 315K LEVEL...A MAXIMUM IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WAVE AXIS. IN ADDITION...A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IS OBSERVED IN IMAGERY FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N BETWEEN 32W-
39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 30W-
40W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N63W TO 14N60W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN AMPLIFIED NORTHWARD MAXIMUM OF
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER THAT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND AREAS TO THE EAST FROM 08N-17N BETWEEN 56W-62W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-14N BETWEEN 57W-63W.
THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT DUE
TO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERIES LOCATED OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
06N15W TO 04N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 04N20W TO 02N34W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 37W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 04N TO 06N15W TO 06N19W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-08N BETWEEN 20W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF W OF 85W THAT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING ANCHORED IN THE WESTERN ATLC.
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA HOWEVER...THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS LESSENED BY A WEAK MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH FOCUS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W. THIS FEATURE IS RESULTING IN WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS E OF 82W ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS
AND INLAND AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE SURFACE RIDGING
PROVIDING SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY W OF 72W ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
REGION NEAR 14N93W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES UNDER THIS UPPER LEVEL REGIME WITH E-SE TRADE WINDS
PERSISTING IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 12N AS THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 09N
ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. EAST OF 72W...SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS DOMINATE AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN OVERALL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT SUPPORTS THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W IMPACTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A MODERATELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REMAINING MOSTLY N OF 20N.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PAST FEW
DAYS WITH E-SE TRADES PREVAILING AND THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OCCURING IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING HOURS
WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
BEGINNING TO INITIATE OVER INLAND AREAS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND A FEW ISOLATE SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 69W-72W. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA SECTION...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS SYNOPTICALLY...RESULTING IN HIGHER PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND CONTINUES TO MOVE E-NE INTO THE SW NORTH
ATLC REGION BRINGING WITH IT INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING W OF A LINE FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
NEAR 23N75W TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 32N80W. THIS
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ABOVE SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1028
MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF BERMUDA NEAR 37N64W. FARTHER EAST...A
NORTHWEST NORTH ATLC UPEPR LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE
AREA NEAR 41N53W THAT LEADS TO BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 45W-70W AND SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N51W. THE COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 28N62W AND ALSO EXHIBITS A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE COLD FRONT NEAR 29N55W TO
24N64W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. IN ADDITION...TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...A WEAK
1019 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N48W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM OF THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES AND WITHIN
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23N44W TO 27N45W. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR
43N29W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201734
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON MAY 20 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201734
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON MAY 20 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201525
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAY 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 11N95W TO 07N115W TO
09N122W...THEN RESUMES AT 10N126W TO 07N132W. THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES FROM 07N132W TO 08N140W. CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 80W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N
TO 08N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W...FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND
109W...FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 117W AND 127W AND FROM 05N TO 11N
W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE 1009 MB REMNANTS OF ALVIN ARE CENTERED NEAR 12.5N123W ALONG
A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 9N123W TO
15N123W. AN EARLIER HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS PROVIDED
OBSERVATIONS OF 20-30 KT WINDS WITHIN 150 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW
CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING MAXIMUM SEAS OF 11 FT. A BROAD
MIX OF SWELL IS MAINTAINING SEAS OF 7-10 FT ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE
AREA BOUNDED BY 11N-17N BETWEEN 120W-130W. FARTHER WEST...AN
AREA OF ENHANCED NE TRADES AT 15-20 KT IS NOTED WITH SEAS TO 9
FT...ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 10N-15N W OF 136W. MARINE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE REMNANT LOW OF ALVIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
MAINLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AN AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM TO THE N OF THE LOW
CENTER.

A 1033 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 38N136W EXTENDS A
RIDGE SE TO NEAR 18N112W. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE PRODUCING NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT ALONG THE
ENTIRE W SHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS OF 4-6
FT. IN ADDITION...A SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15-20 KT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL PACIFIC WATERS...ROUGHLY N OF 28N
BETWEEN 119W AND 126W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN N SWELL.
THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS
HIGH PRES N OF AREA INTENSIFIES.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ON WED
AS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE
E PACIFIC NEAR 09N87W LATE IN THE WEEK.

ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST WATERS. A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME...ORIGINATING FROM
THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE
ALVIN...EXTENDS ALL THE WAY NE BETWEEN 110W AND 120W TO SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO MAINLAND MEXICO. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS
HELPING TO INDUCE THE STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA.

$$
GR

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201525
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAY 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 11N95W TO 07N115W TO
09N122W...THEN RESUMES AT 10N126W TO 07N132W. THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES FROM 07N132W TO 08N140W. CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 80W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N
TO 08N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W...FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND
109W...FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 117W AND 127W AND FROM 05N TO 11N
W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE 1009 MB REMNANTS OF ALVIN ARE CENTERED NEAR 12.5N123W ALONG
A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 9N123W TO
15N123W. AN EARLIER HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS PROVIDED
OBSERVATIONS OF 20-30 KT WINDS WITHIN 150 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW
CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING MAXIMUM SEAS OF 11 FT. A BROAD
MIX OF SWELL IS MAINTAINING SEAS OF 7-10 FT ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE
AREA BOUNDED BY 11N-17N BETWEEN 120W-130W. FARTHER WEST...AN
AREA OF ENHANCED NE TRADES AT 15-20 KT IS NOTED WITH SEAS TO 9
FT...ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 10N-15N W OF 136W. MARINE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE REMNANT LOW OF ALVIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
MAINLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AN AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM TO THE N OF THE LOW
CENTER.

A 1033 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 38N136W EXTENDS A
RIDGE SE TO NEAR 18N112W. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE PRODUCING NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT ALONG THE
ENTIRE W SHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS OF 4-6
FT. IN ADDITION...A SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15-20 KT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL PACIFIC WATERS...ROUGHLY N OF 28N
BETWEEN 119W AND 126W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN N SWELL.
THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS
HIGH PRES N OF AREA INTENSIFIES.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ON WED
AS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE
E PACIFIC NEAR 09N87W LATE IN THE WEEK.

ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST WATERS. A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME...ORIGINATING FROM
THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE
ALVIN...EXTENDS ALL THE WAY NE BETWEEN 110W AND 120W TO SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO MAINLAND MEXICO. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS
HELPING TO INDUCE THE STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA.

$$
GR

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201525
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAY 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 11N95W TO 07N115W TO
09N122W...THEN RESUMES AT 10N126W TO 07N132W. THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES FROM 07N132W TO 08N140W. CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 80W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N
TO 08N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W...FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND
109W...FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 117W AND 127W AND FROM 05N TO 11N
W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE 1009 MB REMNANTS OF ALVIN ARE CENTERED NEAR 12.5N123W ALONG
A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 9N123W TO
15N123W. AN EARLIER HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS PROVIDED
OBSERVATIONS OF 20-30 KT WINDS WITHIN 150 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW
CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING MAXIMUM SEAS OF 11 FT. A BROAD
MIX OF SWELL IS MAINTAINING SEAS OF 7-10 FT ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE
AREA BOUNDED BY 11N-17N BETWEEN 120W-130W. FARTHER WEST...AN
AREA OF ENHANCED NE TRADES AT 15-20 KT IS NOTED WITH SEAS TO 9
FT...ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 10N-15N W OF 136W. MARINE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE REMNANT LOW OF ALVIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
MAINLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AN AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM TO THE N OF THE LOW
CENTER.

A 1033 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 38N136W EXTENDS A
RIDGE SE TO NEAR 18N112W. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE PRODUCING NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT ALONG THE
ENTIRE W SHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS OF 4-6
FT. IN ADDITION...A SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15-20 KT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL PACIFIC WATERS...ROUGHLY N OF 28N
BETWEEN 119W AND 126W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN N SWELL.
THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS
HIGH PRES N OF AREA INTENSIFIES.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ON WED
AS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE
E PACIFIC NEAR 09N87W LATE IN THE WEEK.

ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST WATERS. A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME...ORIGINATING FROM
THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE
ALVIN...EXTENDS ALL THE WAY NE BETWEEN 110W AND 120W TO SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO MAINLAND MEXICO. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS
HELPING TO INDUCE THE STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA.

$$
GR

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201525
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAY 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 11N95W TO 07N115W TO
09N122W...THEN RESUMES AT 10N126W TO 07N132W. THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES FROM 07N132W TO 08N140W. CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 80W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N
TO 08N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W...FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND
109W...FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 117W AND 127W AND FROM 05N TO 11N
W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE 1009 MB REMNANTS OF ALVIN ARE CENTERED NEAR 12.5N123W ALONG
A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 9N123W TO
15N123W. AN EARLIER HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS PROVIDED
OBSERVATIONS OF 20-30 KT WINDS WITHIN 150 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW
CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING MAXIMUM SEAS OF 11 FT. A BROAD
MIX OF SWELL IS MAINTAINING SEAS OF 7-10 FT ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE
AREA BOUNDED BY 11N-17N BETWEEN 120W-130W. FARTHER WEST...AN
AREA OF ENHANCED NE TRADES AT 15-20 KT IS NOTED WITH SEAS TO 9
FT...ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 10N-15N W OF 136W. MARINE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE REMNANT LOW OF ALVIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
MAINLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AN AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM TO THE N OF THE LOW
CENTER.

A 1033 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 38N136W EXTENDS A
RIDGE SE TO NEAR 18N112W. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE PRODUCING NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT ALONG THE
ENTIRE W SHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS OF 4-6
FT. IN ADDITION...A SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15-20 KT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL PACIFIC WATERS...ROUGHLY N OF 28N
BETWEEN 119W AND 126W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN N SWELL.
THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS
HIGH PRES N OF AREA INTENSIFIES.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ON WED
AS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE
E PACIFIC NEAR 09N87W LATE IN THE WEEK.

ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST WATERS. A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME...ORIGINATING FROM
THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE
ALVIN...EXTENDS ALL THE WAY NE BETWEEN 110W AND 120W TO SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO MAINLAND MEXICO. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS
HELPING TO INDUCE THE STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA.

$$
GR

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201150
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W TO THE SOUTH OF
9N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W TO THE SOUTH OF 13N...FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS INTO EASTERN VENEZUELA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 57W AND 61W NEAR
TRINIDAD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 55W
AND 65W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO
6N17W AND 4N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N21W TO 4N26W AND
3N30W. THE ITCZ STARTS AGAIN ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM 38W TO 46W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 3N TO 5N TO THE
EAST OF 2W...AND FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 19W AND 25W. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH EASTERN
ALABAMA/WESTERN GEORGIA...ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
APALACHEE BAY OF FLORIDA...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF 31N87W 25N89W 23N91W 26N97W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE NORTH OF THE
LINE FROM 30N86W 23N92W 26N87W TO 25N97W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 31N73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
29N78W...TO 28N89W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD
THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS STATIONS FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA. BILOXI
MISSISSIPPI AND MOBILE ALABAMA ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE ELSEWHERE
BETWEEN THE REST OF LOUISIANA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FAIR
SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE ELSEWHERE IN
FLORIDA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KVBS...KCRH...KHQI...KGUL...KDLP... AND KSPR. FAIR
SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED
ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N68W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 18N76W
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 16N78W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS NEAR 7N66W IN
VENEZUELA...TO 9N74W IN COLOMBIA NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH...TO
11N81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO
13N86W IN NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 8N78W IN
EASTERN PANAMA...THROUGH THE WESTERN END OF PANAMA...FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST IN COSTA RICA...TO 11N87W IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN...AND BEYOND 9N90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 3N ALONG THE
COLOMBIA COAST IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO 11N IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BETWEEN 76W IN
COLOMBIA AND 85W IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA. NUMEROUS
STRONG ALSO IS IN LAKE MARACAIBO OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.

HISPANIOLA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N68W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 18N76W
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 16N78W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN THE EASTERN EDGE OF
PUERTO RICO AND 78W BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA.

THE GFS MODEL GIVES A FORECAST OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW/ A
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA AT 250 MB. A TROUGH IS PRESENT IN THE
FORECAST AT 500 MB AND AT 700 MB. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW FORECAST
IS MOSTLY EASTERLY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT IN ORDER TO HELP TO GIVE
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N55W TO
27N55W. THE REST OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW
THAT IS AROUND THAT AREA TO THE SOUTH IS NORTHWESTERLY-TO-
WESTERLY. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N53W TO 28N66W...CURVING BEYOND 32N71W. A REMNANT SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 28N59W 21N66W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO
24N60W 20N66W...INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N32W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N34W 16N37W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 28N48W 25N44W 22N42W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT COVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO
THE EAST OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201150
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W TO THE SOUTH OF
9N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W TO THE SOUTH OF 13N...FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS INTO EASTERN VENEZUELA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 57W AND 61W NEAR
TRINIDAD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 55W
AND 65W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO
6N17W AND 4N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N21W TO 4N26W AND
3N30W. THE ITCZ STARTS AGAIN ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM 38W TO 46W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 3N TO 5N TO THE
EAST OF 2W...AND FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 19W AND 25W. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH EASTERN
ALABAMA/WESTERN GEORGIA...ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
APALACHEE BAY OF FLORIDA...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF 31N87W 25N89W 23N91W 26N97W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE NORTH OF THE
LINE FROM 30N86W 23N92W 26N87W TO 25N97W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 31N73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
29N78W...TO 28N89W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD
THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS STATIONS FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA. BILOXI
MISSISSIPPI AND MOBILE ALABAMA ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE ELSEWHERE
BETWEEN THE REST OF LOUISIANA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FAIR
SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE ELSEWHERE IN
FLORIDA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KVBS...KCRH...KHQI...KGUL...KDLP... AND KSPR. FAIR
SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED
ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N68W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 18N76W
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 16N78W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS NEAR 7N66W IN
VENEZUELA...TO 9N74W IN COLOMBIA NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH...TO
11N81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO
13N86W IN NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 8N78W IN
EASTERN PANAMA...THROUGH THE WESTERN END OF PANAMA...FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST IN COSTA RICA...TO 11N87W IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN...AND BEYOND 9N90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 3N ALONG THE
COLOMBIA COAST IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO 11N IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BETWEEN 76W IN
COLOMBIA AND 85W IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA. NUMEROUS
STRONG ALSO IS IN LAKE MARACAIBO OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.

HISPANIOLA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N68W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 18N76W
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 16N78W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN THE EASTERN EDGE OF
PUERTO RICO AND 78W BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA.

THE GFS MODEL GIVES A FORECAST OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW/ A
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA AT 250 MB. A TROUGH IS PRESENT IN THE
FORECAST AT 500 MB AND AT 700 MB. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW FORECAST
IS MOSTLY EASTERLY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT IN ORDER TO HELP TO GIVE
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N55W TO
27N55W. THE REST OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW
THAT IS AROUND THAT AREA TO THE SOUTH IS NORTHWESTERLY-TO-
WESTERLY. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N53W TO 28N66W...CURVING BEYOND 32N71W. A REMNANT SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 28N59W 21N66W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO
24N60W 20N66W...INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N32W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N34W 16N37W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 28N48W 25N44W 22N42W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT COVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO
THE EAST OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201135
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON MAY 20 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201135
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON MAY 20 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201135
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON MAY 20 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201135
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON MAY 20 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201000
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAY 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W AND THEN NW FROM THE
COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER AT 08N77W ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
TO THE E PACIFIC AT 11N87W...THEN DIPS SW TO 08N93W...THEN W TO
10N99W WHERE IT IS BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED BY A TROUGH EXTENDING
NNE TO 14N97W. THE MONSOON TROUGH APPEARS AGAIN AT 09N101W
AND CONTINUES W TO 09N120W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY.
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE AN ITCZ FORMS W OF THE REMNANT
LOW OF ALVIN AT 08N126W AND CONTINUES W TO BEYOND 09N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINES FROM 10N85W TO 07N88W TO 09N101W...
AND FROM 06N115W TO 09N123W TO 07N130W TO 09N136W TO 07N140W.

THE 1010 MB REMNANTS OF ALVIN ARE CENTERED NEAR 13N122W ALONG
A SW-NE ORIENTATED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 11N123W TO 15N123W.
NE-E-SE WINDS AT 20-30 KT ARE DETECTED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA
WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER WITH MAXIMUM
SEAS OF 11 FT. A BROAD MIX OF SWELL IS MAINTAINING SEAS OF 7-10
FT ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE AREA BOUNDED BY 10N-19N BETWEEN
117W-130W. THIS AREA NEARLY MERGES WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED NE
TRADES AT 15-20 KT...SEAS TO 9 FT...ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM
09N-15N BETWEEN 126W-140W. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD LOSE IDENTITY
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE TROUGH DRIFTS WESTWARD AND
CONTINUES TO INTERRUPT THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. EXPECT NE
TRADE WINDS AT 15-20 KT TO CONTINUE WITHIN 360 NM W OF TROUGH
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SHRINK TO ONLY AND WITHIN 210 NM ON TUE.
THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY LATE THIS WEEK AS THE
ITCZ DEVELOPS EASTWARD. THE AREA OF ENHANCED NE TRADES AT 15-20
KT WILL EXPAND LATE IN THE WEEK TO THE AREA FROM 13N-20N W OF
128W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW TO SE FROM 32N133W TO 18N109W.
NW WINDS ARE AT 10-15 KT ALONG THE ENTIRE W SHORE OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL
RELAX SOME LATER TODAY SUPPORTING MOSTLY W-NW WINDS AT 10 KT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WED. A SURGE OF
NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15-20 KT CONTINUE ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL
PACIFIC WATERS...ROUGHLY N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W-123W...TODAY
WITH SEAS MAXING AT 8 FT IN THE ASSOCIATED N SWELL THAT
CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL.
A REINFORCING N SURGE AT 20 KT WILL ARRIVE ALONG 32N ON TUE WITH
THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 115W-140W ON THU NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 13 FT
IN LONG PERIOD N SWELL ON WED AND THU NEAR 30N120W. SEAS OF 7-9
FT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE N OF
28N ON THU...AND MAY REACH AS FAR S AS 26N LATE THU NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ON WED
AS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE
E PACIFIC NEAR 09N87W LATE IN THE WEEK.

ALOFT...A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME...ORIGINATING FROM THE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN...
AND OTHER CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 113W-
127W...CONCENTRATES INTO A 540 NM WIDE PLUME FROM 08N119W TO
23N108W...THEN THE PLUME TURNS E ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND
ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...THEN TURNS NNE ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO EVENTUALLY FEEDING INTO CONVECTION OVER THE SE
CONUS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS NO
REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE.

$$
NELSON

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201000
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAY 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W AND THEN NW FROM THE
COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER AT 08N77W ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
TO THE E PACIFIC AT 11N87W...THEN DIPS SW TO 08N93W...THEN W TO
10N99W WHERE IT IS BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED BY A TROUGH EXTENDING
NNE TO 14N97W. THE MONSOON TROUGH APPEARS AGAIN AT 09N101W
AND CONTINUES W TO 09N120W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY.
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE AN ITCZ FORMS W OF THE REMNANT
LOW OF ALVIN AT 08N126W AND CONTINUES W TO BEYOND 09N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINES FROM 10N85W TO 07N88W TO 09N101W...
AND FROM 06N115W TO 09N123W TO 07N130W TO 09N136W TO 07N140W.

THE 1010 MB REMNANTS OF ALVIN ARE CENTERED NEAR 13N122W ALONG
A SW-NE ORIENTATED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 11N123W TO 15N123W.
NE-E-SE WINDS AT 20-30 KT ARE DETECTED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA
WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER WITH MAXIMUM
SEAS OF 11 FT. A BROAD MIX OF SWELL IS MAINTAINING SEAS OF 7-10
FT ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE AREA BOUNDED BY 10N-19N BETWEEN
117W-130W. THIS AREA NEARLY MERGES WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED NE
TRADES AT 15-20 KT...SEAS TO 9 FT...ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM
09N-15N BETWEEN 126W-140W. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD LOSE IDENTITY
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE TROUGH DRIFTS WESTWARD AND
CONTINUES TO INTERRUPT THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. EXPECT NE
TRADE WINDS AT 15-20 KT TO CONTINUE WITHIN 360 NM W OF TROUGH
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SHRINK TO ONLY AND WITHIN 210 NM ON TUE.
THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY LATE THIS WEEK AS THE
ITCZ DEVELOPS EASTWARD. THE AREA OF ENHANCED NE TRADES AT 15-20
KT WILL EXPAND LATE IN THE WEEK TO THE AREA FROM 13N-20N W OF
128W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW TO SE FROM 32N133W TO 18N109W.
NW WINDS ARE AT 10-15 KT ALONG THE ENTIRE W SHORE OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL
RELAX SOME LATER TODAY SUPPORTING MOSTLY W-NW WINDS AT 10 KT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WED. A SURGE OF
NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15-20 KT CONTINUE ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL
PACIFIC WATERS...ROUGHLY N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W-123W...TODAY
WITH SEAS MAXING AT 8 FT IN THE ASSOCIATED N SWELL THAT
CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL.
A REINFORCING N SURGE AT 20 KT WILL ARRIVE ALONG 32N ON TUE WITH
THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 115W-140W ON THU NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 13 FT
IN LONG PERIOD N SWELL ON WED AND THU NEAR 30N120W. SEAS OF 7-9
FT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE N OF
28N ON THU...AND MAY REACH AS FAR S AS 26N LATE THU NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ON WED
AS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE
E PACIFIC NEAR 09N87W LATE IN THE WEEK.

ALOFT...A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME...ORIGINATING FROM THE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN...
AND OTHER CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 113W-
127W...CONCENTRATES INTO A 540 NM WIDE PLUME FROM 08N119W TO
23N108W...THEN THE PLUME TURNS E ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND
ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...THEN TURNS NNE ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO EVENTUALLY FEEDING INTO CONVECTION OVER THE SE
CONUS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS NO
REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE.

$$
NELSON

000
AXNT20 KNHC 200558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W
TO THE SOUTH OF 9N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 30W
AND 40W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N60W 9N61W 5N61W...FROM
THE WATERS THAT ARE JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
BARBADOS...TO THE EAST OF TRINIDAD...INTO EASTERN
VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG IS IN VENEZUELA FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 62W
AND 65W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 17N
BETWEEN 56W AND 63W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA
NEAR 10N15W TO 8N15W AND 6N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 6N17W TO 4N22W AND 4N31W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 1S36W TO 1S40W 2S45W...INTO BRAZIL NEAR 1S49W
AND 1S53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND
2W...AND FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 17W AND 28W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE WEST OF 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
AND THE TROUGH. HIGH CLOUDS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N
TO THE WEST OF 90W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE
COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 30N78W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO SOUTHWESTERN
COASTAL LOUISIANA...TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS STATIONS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO
MISSISSIPPI. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE IN ALABAMA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND HIGH
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED IN FLORIDA NEAR VALPARAISO...
MARY ESTHER...AND DESTIN/FORT WALTON BEACH. THE NAVAL
AIR STATION WHITING FIELD NEAR MILTON FLORIDA IS
REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 3/4 OF A MILE WITH FOG.
A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE SARASOTA/
BRADENTON AIRPORT...AND A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS
OBSERVED AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KVBS...KCRH...KHQI...KGUL...KEIR...
AND KSPR. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG
26N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...TO 18N76W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 16N78W.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...TO THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS NEAR 7N66W
IN VENEZUELA...TO 9N74W IN COLOMBIA NEAR THE MONSOON
TROUGH...TO 11N81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 13N86W IN NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N73W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH
8N77W ALONG THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER...THROUGH 8N81W
IN SOUTHERN PANAMA...THROUGH 9N83W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...
AND BEYOND 9N86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA
FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 72W NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND 76W IN COLOMBIA...FROM 7N TO
10N IN PANAMA AND EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS
BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...TO THE NORTH OF 7N BETWEEN 81W AND
THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER NEAR 83W...AND ALONG THE
COSTA RICA COAST BETWEEN 84W AND 86W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND
78W.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG
26N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...
TO 18N76W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 16N78W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN THE
EASTERN EDGE OF PUERTO RICO AND 77W BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
AND JAMAICA.

THE GFS MODEL GIVES A FORECAST OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW/
A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA AT 250 MB. A TROUGH IS PRESENT
IN THE FORECAST AT 500 MB AND AT 700 MB. THE SURFACE WIND
FLOW FORECAST IS MOSTLY EASTERLY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT IN ORDER
TO HELP TO GIVE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N52W
TO 32N52W. THE REST OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND
FLOW THAT IS AROUND THAT AREA TO THE SOUTH IS NORTHWESTERLY-
TO-WESTERLY. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N55W TO 28N66W...CURVING TO 31N71W. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD FROM 31N71W BEYOND 32N72W.
A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N57W 26N62W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 27N52W 23N60W 20N66W...INCLUDING
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF
FLORIDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N33W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N34W 15N38W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 28N47W 25N44W 23N43W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
THAT COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN
40W AND 50W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH
OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

000
AXNT20 KNHC 200558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W
TO THE SOUTH OF 9N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 30W
AND 40W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N60W 9N61W 5N61W...FROM
THE WATERS THAT ARE JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
BARBADOS...TO THE EAST OF TRINIDAD...INTO EASTERN
VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG IS IN VENEZUELA FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 62W
AND 65W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 17N
BETWEEN 56W AND 63W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA
NEAR 10N15W TO 8N15W AND 6N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 6N17W TO 4N22W AND 4N31W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 1S36W TO 1S40W 2S45W...INTO BRAZIL NEAR 1S49W
AND 1S53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND
2W...AND FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 17W AND 28W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE WEST OF 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
AND THE TROUGH. HIGH CLOUDS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N
TO THE WEST OF 90W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE
COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 30N78W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO SOUTHWESTERN
COASTAL LOUISIANA...TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS STATIONS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO
MISSISSIPPI. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE IN ALABAMA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND HIGH
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED IN FLORIDA NEAR VALPARAISO...
MARY ESTHER...AND DESTIN/FORT WALTON BEACH. THE NAVAL
AIR STATION WHITING FIELD NEAR MILTON FLORIDA IS
REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 3/4 OF A MILE WITH FOG.
A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE SARASOTA/
BRADENTON AIRPORT...AND A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS
OBSERVED AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KVBS...KCRH...KHQI...KGUL...KEIR...
AND KSPR. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG
26N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...TO 18N76W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 16N78W.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...TO THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS NEAR 7N66W
IN VENEZUELA...TO 9N74W IN COLOMBIA NEAR THE MONSOON
TROUGH...TO 11N81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 13N86W IN NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N73W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH
8N77W ALONG THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER...THROUGH 8N81W
IN SOUTHERN PANAMA...THROUGH 9N83W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...
AND BEYOND 9N86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA
FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 72W NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND 76W IN COLOMBIA...FROM 7N TO
10N IN PANAMA AND EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS
BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...TO THE NORTH OF 7N BETWEEN 81W AND
THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER NEAR 83W...AND ALONG THE
COSTA RICA COAST BETWEEN 84W AND 86W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND
78W.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG
26N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...
TO 18N76W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 16N78W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN THE
EASTERN EDGE OF PUERTO RICO AND 77W BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
AND JAMAICA.

THE GFS MODEL GIVES A FORECAST OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW/
A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA AT 250 MB. A TROUGH IS PRESENT
IN THE FORECAST AT 500 MB AND AT 700 MB. THE SURFACE WIND
FLOW FORECAST IS MOSTLY EASTERLY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT IN ORDER
TO HELP TO GIVE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N52W
TO 32N52W. THE REST OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND
FLOW THAT IS AROUND THAT AREA TO THE SOUTH IS NORTHWESTERLY-
TO-WESTERLY. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N55W TO 28N66W...CURVING TO 31N71W. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD FROM 31N71W BEYOND 32N72W.
A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N57W 26N62W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 27N52W 23N60W 20N66W...INCLUDING
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF
FLORIDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N33W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N34W 15N38W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 28N47W 25N44W 23N43W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
THAT COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN
40W AND 50W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH
OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200228
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAY 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N86W TO 08N92W
TO 09N99W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N99W TO 10N119W...THEN
RESUMES FROM 10N125W TO 08N131W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 86W
AND 96W.

SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO WITHIN
300 NM E OF A LINE FROM 16N119W TO 09N125W...IN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN.

...DISCUSSION...

1034 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS POSITIONED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR
44N132W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING S-SE OF THE HIGH THROUGH
32N132W TO 17N110W. THIS RIDGING COMBINED WITH TROUGHING OVER
INTERIOR CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE
REDWOOD COAST OF CALIFORNIA S TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THESE
WINDS ARE GENERATING SEAS OF 8-11 FT WHICH ARE PROPAGATING INTO
THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 117W AND 126W. THESE SEA
HEIGHTS WILL ENCOMPASS THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 128W
BY MON EVENING...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN COVERAGE FROM THAT POINT
THROUGH TUE EVENING.

THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN...IN THE FORM OF A 1010 MB LOW AND
ATTENDANT TROUGH...EXTEND FROM 15N122W TO 13N122W TO 07N124W.
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN
THE N QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N122W. EARLIER
ALTIMETER PASSES ALSO INDICATED 9-11 FT SEAS IN THE N QUADRANT
AS WELL. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NEARBY IN THE W CENTRAL
WATERS FROM 09N TO 20N W OF 126W WHERE SEAS OF 8-10 FT IN MIXED
NE AND SW SWELL ARE PRESENT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE REMAINING TROUGH CONTINUING
WESTWARD...EXTENDING FROM 15N125W TO 11N126W TO 08N128W BY TUE
EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE BOARD
IN THIS AREA BY MON EVENING...WHILE LINGERING SEAS OF 8-9 FT
WILL REMAIN W OF THE TROUGH THROUGH 48 HOURS.

ALOFT...A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME APPROXIMATELY 390 NM WIDE
EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 05N TO 12N W OF 120W...THEN
CONTINUES TO THE NE TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. DRY AND STABLE
AIR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THIS PLUME...EXCEPT W OF
132W WHERE ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE S OF HAWAII IS ADVECTING
INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS. ELSEWHERE...MOISTURE ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH AS IS DESCRIBED IN THE CONVECTION SECTION
CONTINUES TO FAN OUT WHILE MOVING WESTWARD TO 110W AROUND AN
UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA.

$$
LEWITSKY

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200228
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAY 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N86W TO 08N92W
TO 09N99W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N99W TO 10N119W...THEN
RESUMES FROM 10N125W TO 08N131W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 86W
AND 96W.

SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO WITHIN
300 NM E OF A LINE FROM 16N119W TO 09N125W...IN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN.

...DISCUSSION...

1034 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS POSITIONED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR
44N132W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING S-SE OF THE HIGH THROUGH
32N132W TO 17N110W. THIS RIDGING COMBINED WITH TROUGHING OVER
INTERIOR CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE
REDWOOD COAST OF CALIFORNIA S TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THESE
WINDS ARE GENERATING SEAS OF 8-11 FT WHICH ARE PROPAGATING INTO
THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 117W AND 126W. THESE SEA
HEIGHTS WILL ENCOMPASS THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 128W
BY MON EVENING...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN COVERAGE FROM THAT POINT
THROUGH TUE EVENING.

THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN...IN THE FORM OF A 1010 MB LOW AND
ATTENDANT TROUGH...EXTEND FROM 15N122W TO 13N122W TO 07N124W.
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN
THE N QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N122W. EARLIER
ALTIMETER PASSES ALSO INDICATED 9-11 FT SEAS IN THE N QUADRANT
AS WELL. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NEARBY IN THE W CENTRAL
WATERS FROM 09N TO 20N W OF 126W WHERE SEAS OF 8-10 FT IN MIXED
NE AND SW SWELL ARE PRESENT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE REMAINING TROUGH CONTINUING
WESTWARD...EXTENDING FROM 15N125W TO 11N126W TO 08N128W BY TUE
EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE BOARD
IN THIS AREA BY MON EVENING...WHILE LINGERING SEAS OF 8-9 FT
WILL REMAIN W OF THE TROUGH THROUGH 48 HOURS.

ALOFT...A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME APPROXIMATELY 390 NM WIDE
EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 05N TO 12N W OF 120W...THEN
CONTINUES TO THE NE TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. DRY AND STABLE
AIR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THIS PLUME...EXCEPT W OF
132W WHERE ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE S OF HAWAII IS ADVECTING
INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS. ELSEWHERE...MOISTURE ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH AS IS DESCRIBED IN THE CONVECTION SECTION
CONTINUES TO FAN OUT WHILE MOVING WESTWARD TO 110W AROUND AN
UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA.

$$
LEWITSKY

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200228
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAY 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N86W TO 08N92W
TO 09N99W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N99W TO 10N119W...THEN
RESUMES FROM 10N125W TO 08N131W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 86W
AND 96W.

SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO WITHIN
300 NM E OF A LINE FROM 16N119W TO 09N125W...IN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN.

...DISCUSSION...

1034 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS POSITIONED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR
44N132W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING S-SE OF THE HIGH THROUGH
32N132W TO 17N110W. THIS RIDGING COMBINED WITH TROUGHING OVER
INTERIOR CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE
REDWOOD COAST OF CALIFORNIA S TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THESE
WINDS ARE GENERATING SEAS OF 8-11 FT WHICH ARE PROPAGATING INTO
THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 117W AND 126W. THESE SEA
HEIGHTS WILL ENCOMPASS THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 128W
BY MON EVENING...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN COVERAGE FROM THAT POINT
THROUGH TUE EVENING.

THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN...IN THE FORM OF A 1010 MB LOW AND
ATTENDANT TROUGH...EXTEND FROM 15N122W TO 13N122W TO 07N124W.
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN
THE N QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N122W. EARLIER
ALTIMETER PASSES ALSO INDICATED 9-11 FT SEAS IN THE N QUADRANT
AS WELL. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NEARBY IN THE W CENTRAL
WATERS FROM 09N TO 20N W OF 126W WHERE SEAS OF 8-10 FT IN MIXED
NE AND SW SWELL ARE PRESENT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE REMAINING TROUGH CONTINUING
WESTWARD...EXTENDING FROM 15N125W TO 11N126W TO 08N128W BY TUE
EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE BOARD
IN THIS AREA BY MON EVENING...WHILE LINGERING SEAS OF 8-9 FT
WILL REMAIN W OF THE TROUGH THROUGH 48 HOURS.

ALOFT...A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME APPROXIMATELY 390 NM WIDE
EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 05N TO 12N W OF 120W...THEN
CONTINUES TO THE NE TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. DRY AND STABLE
AIR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THIS PLUME...EXCEPT W OF
132W WHERE ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE S OF HAWAII IS ADVECTING
INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS. ELSEWHERE...MOISTURE ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH AS IS DESCRIBED IN THE CONVECTION SECTION
CONTINUES TO FAN OUT WHILE MOVING WESTWARD TO 110W AROUND AN
UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA.

$$
LEWITSKY

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200228
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAY 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N86W TO 08N92W
TO 09N99W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N99W TO 10N119W...THEN
RESUMES FROM 10N125W TO 08N131W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 86W
AND 96W.

SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO WITHIN
300 NM E OF A LINE FROM 16N119W TO 09N125W...IN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN.

...DISCUSSION...

1034 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS POSITIONED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR
44N132W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING S-SE OF THE HIGH THROUGH
32N132W TO 17N110W. THIS RIDGING COMBINED WITH TROUGHING OVER
INTERIOR CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE
REDWOOD COAST OF CALIFORNIA S TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THESE
WINDS ARE GENERATING SEAS OF 8-11 FT WHICH ARE PROPAGATING INTO
THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 117W AND 126W. THESE SEA
HEIGHTS WILL ENCOMPASS THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 128W
BY MON EVENING...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN COVERAGE FROM THAT POINT
THROUGH TUE EVENING.

THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN...IN THE FORM OF A 1010 MB LOW AND
ATTENDANT TROUGH...EXTEND FROM 15N122W TO 13N122W TO 07N124W.
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN
THE N QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N122W. EARLIER
ALTIMETER PASSES ALSO INDICATED 9-11 FT SEAS IN THE N QUADRANT
AS WELL. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NEARBY IN THE W CENTRAL
WATERS FROM 09N TO 20N W OF 126W WHERE SEAS OF 8-10 FT IN MIXED
NE AND SW SWELL ARE PRESENT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE REMAINING TROUGH CONTINUING
WESTWARD...EXTENDING FROM 15N125W TO 11N126W TO 08N128W BY TUE
EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE BOARD
IN THIS AREA BY MON EVENING...WHILE LINGERING SEAS OF 8-9 FT
WILL REMAIN W OF THE TROUGH THROUGH 48 HOURS.

ALOFT...A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME APPROXIMATELY 390 NM WIDE
EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 05N TO 12N W OF 120W...THEN
CONTINUES TO THE NE TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. DRY AND STABLE
AIR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THIS PLUME...EXCEPT W OF
132W WHERE ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE S OF HAWAII IS ADVECTING
INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS. ELSEWHERE...MOISTURE ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH AS IS DESCRIBED IN THE CONVECTION SECTION
CONTINUES TO FAN OUT WHILE MOVING WESTWARD TO 110W AROUND AN
UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA.

$$
LEWITSKY

000
AXNT20 KNHC 192336
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 8N30W EQ31W MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE SHOWS A GOOD SIGNAL IN 700 MB STREAMLINES AND SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS. CURRENTLY NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WAVE
AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N60W TO 5N61W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE IS PRIMARILY OVER SOUTH AMERICA...BUT THE MOISTURE
SIGNAL IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY EXTENDS UP TO 15N.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATE STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS OVER LAND
WITHIN 200 NM TO EITHER SIDE. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
HAS ALMOST REACHED THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W TO 6N14W 4N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 4N16W AND CONTINUES
ALONG 3N24W 5N28W WHERE IT BREAKS AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE AND
PICKS UP ALONG EQ32W 1S48W. A LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN
12W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-6N BETWEEN 21-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SPREADS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE NW ATLC. SOME UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE BASIN CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH
ALONG 92W THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO 25N. BROAD UPPER RIDGING
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. MOSTLY SOUTHEAST FLOW IS
PRESENT AT THE SURFACE RANGING FROM 10 KT IN THE EASTERN
PORTIONS TO 15-20 OVER THE WESTERN GULF. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE SW CORNER AND NORTH CENTRAL
PARTS. A FEW STORMS HAVE ALSO MOVED OFF CUBA INTO THE SE GULF.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AND STABLE AIR COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN AROUND A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE BASIN. THE DRY AIR IS
HELPING MAINTAIN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPED UP AND
CONTINUE ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS INCLUDING
CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THE FAR SW CORNER AND OVER
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC THROUGH BOTH COUNTRIES CONTINUING
INTO COLOMBIA. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT DOMINATES THROUGHOUT.A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING WITHIN THE TRADEWIND FLOW ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS A TROPICAL
WAVE JUST EAST OF THE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD. THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF HEAVIER RAIN AS THE WAVE PASSES.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA MAINLY CONCENTRATED IN THE CENTRAL
PORTION. AS THE SUN GOES DOWN THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TO BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND
WHEN PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY OCCUR. ANY AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE PRONE TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT HAS SUNK SOUTH INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 31N60W 29N67W 31N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ALONG THE AXIS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE
BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WRAPS AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED WELL TO
THE NORTH. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
57W THAT EXTENDS NORTH OF 30N. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES
INTO THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC AS WELL. IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...A
PAIR OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS ARE PRESENT. THE FIRST IS ALONG
30N57W TO 24N63W. IT ORIGINATED FROM A NOW DISSIPATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG IT. THE SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N48W 24N44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ALONG THE AXIS. AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS ALSO EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 53W-61W. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE
SOUTH. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY BROAD SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR
42N30W. ALOFT...BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH NEAR 31N33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON

000
AXNT20 KNHC 192336
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 8N30W EQ31W MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE SHOWS A GOOD SIGNAL IN 700 MB STREAMLINES AND SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS. CURRENTLY NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WAVE
AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N60W TO 5N61W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE IS PRIMARILY OVER SOUTH AMERICA...BUT THE MOISTURE
SIGNAL IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY EXTENDS UP TO 15N.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATE STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS OVER LAND
WITHIN 200 NM TO EITHER SIDE. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
HAS ALMOST REACHED THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W TO 6N14W 4N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 4N16W AND CONTINUES
ALONG 3N24W 5N28W WHERE IT BREAKS AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE AND
PICKS UP ALONG EQ32W 1S48W. A LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN
12W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-6N BETWEEN 21-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SPREADS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE NW ATLC. SOME UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE BASIN CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH
ALONG 92W THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO 25N. BROAD UPPER RIDGING
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. MOSTLY SOUTHEAST FLOW IS
PRESENT AT THE SURFACE RANGING FROM 10 KT IN THE EASTERN
PORTIONS TO 15-20 OVER THE WESTERN GULF. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE SW CORNER AND NORTH CENTRAL
PARTS. A FEW STORMS HAVE ALSO MOVED OFF CUBA INTO THE SE GULF.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AND STABLE AIR COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN AROUND A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE BASIN. THE DRY AIR IS
HELPING MAINTAIN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPED UP AND
CONTINUE ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS INCLUDING
CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THE FAR SW CORNER AND OVER
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC THROUGH BOTH COUNTRIES CONTINUING
INTO COLOMBIA. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT DOMINATES THROUGHOUT.A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING WITHIN THE TRADEWIND FLOW ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS A TROPICAL
WAVE JUST EAST OF THE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD. THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF HEAVIER RAIN AS THE WAVE PASSES.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA MAINLY CONCENTRATED IN THE CENTRAL
PORTION. AS THE SUN GOES DOWN THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TO BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND
WHEN PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY OCCUR. ANY AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE PRONE TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT HAS SUNK SOUTH INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 31N60W 29N67W 31N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ALONG THE AXIS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE
BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WRAPS AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED WELL TO
THE NORTH. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
57W THAT EXTENDS NORTH OF 30N. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES
INTO THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC AS WELL. IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...A
PAIR OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS ARE PRESENT. THE FIRST IS ALONG
30N57W TO 24N63W. IT ORIGINATED FROM A NOW DISSIPATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG IT. THE SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N48W 24N44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ALONG THE AXIS. AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS ALSO EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 53W-61W. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE
SOUTH. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY BROAD SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR
42N30W. ALOFT...BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH NEAR 31N33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192335
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192335
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192129
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAY 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N90W TO
07N103W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N103W TO 10N117W...THEN
RESUMES FROM 09N123W TO 06N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 05N E OF 80W...WITHIN
180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 84W AND 90W...WITHIN 90
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 91W AND 94W...
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 97W AND
100W...AND ALSO WITHIN 150-180 NM N OF THE ITCZ W OF 122W.

LOW PRES...THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN...IS NEAR 12.5N121W WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 15N121W TO THE LOW TO 07N121W. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM NE OF THE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

1034 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS POSITIONED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR
39N134W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING S-SE OF THE HIGH THROUGH
32N131W TO 15N106W. THIS RIDGING COMBINED WITH TROUGHING OVER
INTERIOR CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE
REDWOOD COAST OF CALIFORNIA S TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THESE
WINDS ARE GENERATING SEAS OF 8-11 FT WHICH ARE PROPAGATING INTO
THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 119W AND 123W. THESE SEA
HEIGHTS WILL REACH TO 28N BETWEEN 119W AND 127W BY MON AFTERNOON
...WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM THAT POINT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN WHICH ARE ALSO DESCRIBED IN THE CONVECTION
SECTION ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W AROUND 10 KT. A RECENT
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN
270 NM IN THE N QUADRANT OF THE LOW ALONG WITH 9-11 FT SEAS...
WHICH WERE MEASURED BY A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS ARE NEARBY IN THE W CENTRAL WATERS FROM 08N TO 14N W
OF 123W WHERE SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE AND SW SWELL ARE PRESENT.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
THE REMAINING TROUGH CONTINUING WESTWARD...EXTENDING FROM
15N124W TO 11N125W TO 07N129W BY TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE BOARD IN THIS AREA BY MON
AFTERNOON...WHILE LINGERING SEAS OF 8-10 FT WILL LINGER W OF THE
TROUGH THROUGH 48 HOURS.

ALOFT...A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME APPROXIMATELY 390 NM WIDE
EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 04N TO 12N W OF 120W...THEN
CONTINUES TO THE NE JUST S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. DRY AND STABLE
AIR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THIS PLUME...EXCEPT W OF
132W WHERE ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE S OF HAWAII IS ADVECTING
INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS. ELSEWHERE...MOISTURE ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH AS IS DESCRIBED IN THE CONVECTION SECTION
CONTINUES TO FAN OUT WHILE MOVING WESTWARD TO 110W AROUND AN
UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA.

$$
LEWITSKY

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192129
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAY 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N90W TO
07N103W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N103W TO 10N117W...THEN
RESUMES FROM 09N123W TO 06N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 05N E OF 80W...WITHIN
180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 84W AND 90W...WITHIN 90
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 91W AND 94W...
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 97W AND
100W...AND ALSO WITHIN 150-180 NM N OF THE ITCZ W OF 122W.

LOW PRES...THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN...IS NEAR 12.5N121W WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 15N121W TO THE LOW TO 07N121W. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM NE OF THE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

1034 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS POSITIONED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR
39N134W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING S-SE OF THE HIGH THROUGH
32N131W TO 15N106W. THIS RIDGING COMBINED WITH TROUGHING OVER
INTERIOR CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE
REDWOOD COAST OF CALIFORNIA S TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THESE
WINDS ARE GENERATING SEAS OF 8-11 FT WHICH ARE PROPAGATING INTO
THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 119W AND 123W. THESE SEA
HEIGHTS WILL REACH TO 28N BETWEEN 119W AND 127W BY MON AFTERNOON
...WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM THAT POINT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN WHICH ARE ALSO DESCRIBED IN THE CONVECTION
SECTION ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W AROUND 10 KT. A RECENT
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN
270 NM IN THE N QUADRANT OF THE LOW ALONG WITH 9-11 FT SEAS...
WHICH WERE MEASURED BY A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS ARE NEARBY IN THE W CENTRAL WATERS FROM 08N TO 14N W
OF 123W WHERE SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE AND SW SWELL ARE PRESENT.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
THE REMAINING TROUGH CONTINUING WESTWARD...EXTENDING FROM
15N124W TO 11N125W TO 07N129W BY TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE BOARD IN THIS AREA BY MON
AFTERNOON...WHILE LINGERING SEAS OF 8-10 FT WILL LINGER W OF THE
TROUGH THROUGH 48 HOURS.

ALOFT...A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME APPROXIMATELY 390 NM WIDE
EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 04N TO 12N W OF 120W...THEN
CONTINUES TO THE NE JUST S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. DRY AND STABLE
AIR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THIS PLUME...EXCEPT W OF
132W WHERE ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE S OF HAWAII IS ADVECTING
INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS. ELSEWHERE...MOISTURE ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH AS IS DESCRIBED IN THE CONVECTION SECTION
CONTINUES TO FAN OUT WHILE MOVING WESTWARD TO 110W AROUND AN
UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA.

$$
LEWITSKY

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF GUYANA FROM 12N58W TO
7N59W TO 4N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 51W-58W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON EXTENDS FROM COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO
5N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N14W TO 3N17W TO 4N30W TO 0N38W
TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 3W-17W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 19W-23W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 28W-40W...AND FROM 2N-
6N BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS N OF
30N PRODUCING 10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE GULF TO BE VOID OF ANY PRECIPITATION. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 89W. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
TAMPICO MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER TEXAS...AND OVER S
FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SURFACE
RIDGING WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS TO ADVECT FROM W CUBA TO THE
CENTRAL GULF. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO FORM OVER N FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA S OF 11N
BETWEEN 73W-86W MOSTLY DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND W CUBA. MORE SHOWERS
ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR GUADELOUPE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS ALONG
72W. AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE S BAHAMAS NEAR
23N74W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THIS CENTER IS SUPPORTING
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE THE S BAHAMAS...HISPANIOLA
...AND PUERTO RICO. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE
SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO AN
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH
THE STONGEST SHOWERS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC E OF 71W.
SURFACE TRADEWIND CONVERGENCE TOGETHER WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE FROM THE LOW OVER THE S BAHAMAS WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS
OVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT HAS DIPPED OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N59W TO
29N66W TO 32N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
FRONT. THE REMNANTS OF A PREVIOUS FRONT IS FURTHER SE IN THE
FORM OF A TROUGH FROM 31N56W TO 24N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH. A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
THE AZORES AT 40N29W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW OVER THE E ATLANTIC W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF NOTE...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N59W
SUPPORTING SHOWERS. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 31N35W. A 90 KT TROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM 15N45W TO TO THE
CANARY ISLANDS WITH A PLUME OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA COAST. ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE
MOVE E AND MERGE WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF GUYANA FROM 12N58W TO
7N59W TO 4N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 51W-58W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON EXTENDS FROM COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO
5N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N14W TO 3N17W TO 4N30W TO 0N38W
TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 3W-17W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 19W-23W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 28W-40W...AND FROM 2N-
6N BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS N OF
30N PRODUCING 10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE GULF TO BE VOID OF ANY PRECIPITATION. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 89W. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
TAMPICO MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER TEXAS...AND OVER S
FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SURFACE
RIDGING WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS TO ADVECT FROM W CUBA TO THE
CENTRAL GULF. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO FORM OVER N FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA S OF 11N
BETWEEN 73W-86W MOSTLY DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND W CUBA. MORE SHOWERS
ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR GUADELOUPE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS ALONG
72W. AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE S BAHAMAS NEAR
23N74W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THIS CENTER IS SUPPORTING
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE THE S BAHAMAS...HISPANIOLA
...AND PUERTO RICO. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE
SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO AN
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH
THE STONGEST SHOWERS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC E OF 71W.
SURFACE TRADEWIND CONVERGENCE TOGETHER WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE FROM THE LOW OVER THE S BAHAMAS WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS
OVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT HAS DIPPED OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N59W TO
29N66W TO 32N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
FRONT. THE REMNANTS OF A PREVIOUS FRONT IS FURTHER SE IN THE
FORM OF A TROUGH FROM 31N56W TO 24N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH. A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
THE AZORES AT 40N29W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW OVER THE E ATLANTIC W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF NOTE...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N59W
SUPPORTING SHOWERS. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 31N35W. A 90 KT TROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM 15N45W TO TO THE
CANARY ISLANDS WITH A PLUME OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA COAST. ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE
MOVE E AND MERGE WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191734
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE REMAINING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191734
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE REMAINING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191734
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE REMAINING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191734
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE REMAINING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191517
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAY 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1345 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN ARE MANIFESTED AS A TROUGH FROM 15N119W TO
07N120W WITH WEAK 1008 MB LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH
NEAR 12N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WAS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE TROUGH.

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO 08N83W TO
10N88W TO 06N106W. THE AXIS IS INTERRUPTED BY THE REMNANTS OF
ALVIN. THEN...THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N122W TO 08N130W
TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 05N TO 08N E
OF 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER
SIDE OF LINE FROM 11N105W TO 05N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND
130W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS
WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE 0726 UTC OSCAT AND 0536 UTC ASCAT PASSES SHOW AN ELONGATED
WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN. THE REMAINING
TROUGH LIES FROM 15N119W TO 07N120W WITH WEAK 1008 MB LOW PRES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH NEAR 12N120W. WINDS TO 30 KT WERE
STILL OBSERVED IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE WEAK LOW. CONVECTION
WAS SKEWED TO THE E OF THE TROUGH WHICH LIES UNDER 25-40 KT OF
SW SHEAR. THIS SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON THE
LINGERING SURFACE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES W AROUND 10 KT TODAY. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH THE
WEAKENING SYSTEM BY EARLY TUE.

1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED NEAR 46N135W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING S THROUGH 37N135W THEN SE TO 13N106W. A MODERATE TO
FRESH NW BREEZE LIES E OF THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA ACCORDING TO THE 0730 UTC OSCAT PASS. TO THE
N...WINDS ARE INCREASING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE THERE BY
MON MORNING. NW SWELL IS ALREADY TRAVELING S OF 32N AND WILL
EXPAND TO WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W-127W BY MON MORNING
BEFORE BEGINNING TO RETREAT AS THE GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE N
DIMINISH.

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WERE OBSERVED BY THE 0630 UTC
ASCAT AND 0906 UTC OSCAT PASSES IN THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ TO
ABOUT 15N. SEAS TO 9 FT WERE OBSERVED BY EARLIER JASON ALTIMETER
PASSES GENERALLY IN THE AREA FROM 08N-13N W OF 132W. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA HERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AND SEAS GENERATED BY TRADE WIND FLOW WILL SHIFT W OF THE AREA
BY EARLY MON.

THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OUTSIDE OF
THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA LIES OVER WESTERN
WATERS ALONG THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 130W.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HERE IS BEING DIVERTED AROUND A WEAK UPPER
ANTICYCLONE NEAR 09N133W...ENHANCING THE CONVECTION.

AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 05N-08N
E OF 89W TO THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA IS BEING ENHANCED
BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BETWEEN 20 KT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLIES TO
THE S AND 5-10 KT EASTERLIES WINDS TO THE N. POOLED LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT HERE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE POOL EXTENDS AS FAR W AS 100W.
ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED IN THIS
REGION WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N105W TO
05N95W WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BETWEEN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ANOTHER JUST SE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH INTO
EARLY TUE.

$$
SCHAUER

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191517
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAY 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1345 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN ARE MANIFESTED AS A TROUGH FROM 15N119W TO
07N120W WITH WEAK 1008 MB LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH
NEAR 12N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WAS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE TROUGH.

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO 08N83W TO
10N88W TO 06N106W. THE AXIS IS INTERRUPTED BY THE REMNANTS OF
ALVIN. THEN...THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N122W TO 08N130W
TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 05N TO 08N E
OF 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER
SIDE OF LINE FROM 11N105W TO 05N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND
130W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS
WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE 0726 UTC OSCAT AND 0536 UTC ASCAT PASSES SHOW AN ELONGATED
WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN. THE REMAINING
TROUGH LIES FROM 15N119W TO 07N120W WITH WEAK 1008 MB LOW PRES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH NEAR 12N120W. WINDS TO 30 KT WERE
STILL OBSERVED IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE WEAK LOW. CONVECTION
WAS SKEWED TO THE E OF THE TROUGH WHICH LIES UNDER 25-40 KT OF
SW SHEAR. THIS SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON THE
LINGERING SURFACE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES W AROUND 10 KT TODAY. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH THE
WEAKENING SYSTEM BY EARLY TUE.

1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED NEAR 46N135W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING S THROUGH 37N135W THEN SE TO 13N106W. A MODERATE TO
FRESH NW BREEZE LIES E OF THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA ACCORDING TO THE 0730 UTC OSCAT PASS. TO THE
N...WINDS ARE INCREASING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE THERE BY
MON MORNING. NW SWELL IS ALREADY TRAVELING S OF 32N AND WILL
EXPAND TO WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W-127W BY MON MORNING
BEFORE BEGINNING TO RETREAT AS THE GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE N
DIMINISH.

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WERE OBSERVED BY THE 0630 UTC
ASCAT AND 0906 UTC OSCAT PASSES IN THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ TO
ABOUT 15N. SEAS TO 9 FT WERE OBSERVED BY EARLIER JASON ALTIMETER
PASSES GENERALLY IN THE AREA FROM 08N-13N W OF 132W. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA HERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AND SEAS GENERATED BY TRADE WIND FLOW WILL SHIFT W OF THE AREA
BY EARLY MON.

THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OUTSIDE OF
THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA LIES OVER WESTERN
WATERS ALONG THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 130W.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HERE IS BEING DIVERTED AROUND A WEAK UPPER
ANTICYCLONE NEAR 09N133W...ENHANCING THE CONVECTION.

AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 05N-08N
E OF 89W TO THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA IS BEING ENHANCED
BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BETWEEN 20 KT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLIES TO
THE S AND 5-10 KT EASTERLIES WINDS TO THE N. POOLED LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT HERE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE POOL EXTENDS AS FAR W AS 100W.
ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED IN THIS
REGION WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N105W TO
05N95W WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BETWEEN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ANOTHER JUST SE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH INTO
EARLY TUE.

$$
SCHAUER

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191134
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN ARE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ASSOCIATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191134
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN ARE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ASSOCIATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191126
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CURVES ALONG 12N54W 9N56W 5N55W IN
NORTHERN SURINAME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE WATER TO THE SOUTH
OF 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE
NEAR 8N13W TO 6N14W AND 5N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
5N18W TO 4N27W AND 4N33W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 5N TO THE EAST OF 22W...
FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 15W AND 16W...FROM 2N TO 6N
BETWEEN 28W AND 34W...AND FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 42W
AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 92W/93W
FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO NORTHWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 85W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 29N70W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N89W...TO 19N97W IN THE MEXICO
COASTAL PLAINS...OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE
EAST OF 92W...INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS STATIONS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE
ELSEWHERE IN LOUISIANA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF MISSISSIPPI. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN
BILOXI AND IN PASCAGOULA IN MISSISSIPPI...AND INTO
ALABAMA. PASCAGOULA IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 1/4 OF
A MILE WITH FOG. MILTON FLORIDA IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY
OF 1/4 OF A MILE WITH FOG. VISIBILITIES OF 1/8 OF A MILE
WITH FOG AND 1/4 OF A MILE WITH FOG ARE FOUND IN THE AREA
PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND IN BROOKVILLE. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR
SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KCRH...KHQI...AND KMYT.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA...TO 15N78W
ABOUT 145 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS NEAR TRINIDAD
AND TOBAGO...CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS
OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA...TO 11N77W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO 13N82W AND INTO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH
THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER...AND BEYOND 8N84W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST FROM 5N TO 6N...
FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTS
OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND WEAKENING IN THE GULF OF URABA
OF COLOMBIA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 18N
TO THE WEST OF 80W...INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND
77W.

HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW PASSES
ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA AND
JAMAICA...TO 15N78W ABOUT 145 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH
OF 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...INCLUDING IN INTERIOR SECTIONS
HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS
AND CUBA.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 28N60W TO
23N64W AND 21N72W IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. RAINSHOWERS ALSO
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W 24N60W 20N62W...INCLUDING ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA.

THE GFS MODEL GIVES A FORECAST OF A TROUGH FROM 250 MB
TO 500 MB AND TO 700 MB. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW FORECAST
IS MOSTLY EASTERLY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT IN ORDER TO HELP
TO GIVE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N60W...
TOWARD ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 31N68W...BEYOND
32N72W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 29N67W
29N73W AND 32N76W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N38W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N37W 19N50W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N54W TO 28N60W 23N64W AND 21N72W IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 34N
BETWEEN 51W AND 61W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N50W 24N60W 20N62W...INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 29N70W...INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N89W...TO 19N97W IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH
OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191126
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CURVES ALONG 12N54W 9N56W 5N55W IN
NORTHERN SURINAME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE WATER TO THE SOUTH
OF 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE
NEAR 8N13W TO 6N14W AND 5N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
5N18W TO 4N27W AND 4N33W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 5N TO THE EAST OF 22W...
FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 15W AND 16W...FROM 2N TO 6N
BETWEEN 28W AND 34W...AND FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 42W
AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 92W/93W
FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO NORTHWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 85W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 29N70W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N89W...TO 19N97W IN THE MEXICO
COASTAL PLAINS...OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE
EAST OF 92W...INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS STATIONS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE
ELSEWHERE IN LOUISIANA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF MISSISSIPPI. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN
BILOXI AND IN PASCAGOULA IN MISSISSIPPI...AND INTO
ALABAMA. PASCAGOULA IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 1/4 OF
A MILE WITH FOG. MILTON FLORIDA IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY
OF 1/4 OF A MILE WITH FOG. VISIBILITIES OF 1/8 OF A MILE
WITH FOG AND 1/4 OF A MILE WITH FOG ARE FOUND IN THE AREA
PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND IN BROOKVILLE. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR
SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KCRH...KHQI...AND KMYT.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA...TO 15N78W
ABOUT 145 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS NEAR TRINIDAD
AND TOBAGO...CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS
OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA...TO 11N77W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO 13N82W AND INTO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH
THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER...AND BEYOND 8N84W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST FROM 5N TO 6N...
FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTS
OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND WEAKENING IN THE GULF OF URABA
OF COLOMBIA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 18N
TO THE WEST OF 80W...INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND
77W.

HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW PASSES
ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA AND
JAMAICA...TO 15N78W ABOUT 145 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH
OF 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...INCLUDING IN INTERIOR SECTIONS
HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS
AND CUBA.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 28N60W TO
23N64W AND 21N72W IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. RAINSHOWERS ALSO
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W 24N60W 20N62W...INCLUDING ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA.

THE GFS MODEL GIVES A FORECAST OF A TROUGH FROM 250 MB
TO 500 MB AND TO 700 MB. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW FORECAST
IS MOSTLY EASTERLY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT IN ORDER TO HELP
TO GIVE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N60W...
TOWARD ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 31N68W...BEYOND
32N72W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 29N67W
29N73W AND 32N76W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N38W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N37W 19N50W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N54W TO 28N60W 23N64W AND 21N72W IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 34N
BETWEEN 51W AND 61W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N50W 24N60W 20N62W...INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 29N70W...INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N89W...TO 19N97W IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH
OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191126
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CURVES ALONG 12N54W 9N56W 5N55W IN
NORTHERN SURINAME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE WATER TO THE SOUTH
OF 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE
NEAR 8N13W TO 6N14W AND 5N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
5N18W TO 4N27W AND 4N33W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 5N TO THE EAST OF 22W...
FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 15W AND 16W...FROM 2N TO 6N
BETWEEN 28W AND 34W...AND FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 42W
AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 92W/93W
FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO NORTHWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 85W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 29N70W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N89W...TO 19N97W IN THE MEXICO
COASTAL PLAINS...OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE
EAST OF 92W...INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS STATIONS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE
ELSEWHERE IN LOUISIANA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF MISSISSIPPI. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN
BILOXI AND IN PASCAGOULA IN MISSISSIPPI...AND INTO
ALABAMA. PASCAGOULA IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 1/4 OF
A MILE WITH FOG. MILTON FLORIDA IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY
OF 1/4 OF A MILE WITH FOG. VISIBILITIES OF 1/8 OF A MILE
WITH FOG AND 1/4 OF A MILE WITH FOG ARE FOUND IN THE AREA
PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND IN BROOKVILLE. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR
SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KCRH...KHQI...AND KMYT.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA...TO 15N78W
ABOUT 145 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS NEAR TRINIDAD
AND TOBAGO...CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS
OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA...TO 11N77W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO 13N82W AND INTO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH
THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER...AND BEYOND 8N84W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST FROM 5N TO 6N...
FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTS
OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND WEAKENING IN THE GULF OF URABA
OF COLOMBIA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 18N
TO THE WEST OF 80W...INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND
77W.

HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW PASSES
ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA AND
JAMAICA...TO 15N78W ABOUT 145 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH
OF 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...INCLUDING IN INTERIOR SECTIONS
HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS
AND CUBA.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 28N60W TO
23N64W AND 21N72W IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. RAINSHOWERS ALSO
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W 24N60W 20N62W...INCLUDING ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA.

THE GFS MODEL GIVES A FORECAST OF A TROUGH FROM 250 MB
TO 500 MB AND TO 700 MB. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW FORECAST
IS MOSTLY EASTERLY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT IN ORDER TO HELP
TO GIVE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N60W...
TOWARD ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 31N68W...BEYOND
32N72W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 29N67W
29N73W AND 32N76W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N38W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N37W 19N50W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N54W TO 28N60W 23N64W AND 21N72W IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 34N
BETWEEN 51W AND 61W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N50W 24N60W 20N62W...INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 29N70W...INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N89W...TO 19N97W IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH
OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191126
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CURVES ALONG 12N54W 9N56W 5N55W IN
NORTHERN SURINAME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE WATER TO THE SOUTH
OF 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE
NEAR 8N13W TO 6N14W AND 5N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
5N18W TO 4N27W AND 4N33W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 5N TO THE EAST OF 22W...
FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 15W AND 16W...FROM 2N TO 6N
BETWEEN 28W AND 34W...AND FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 42W
AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 92W/93W
FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO NORTHWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 85W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 29N70W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N89W...TO 19N97W IN THE MEXICO
COASTAL PLAINS...OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE
EAST OF 92W...INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS STATIONS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE
ELSEWHERE IN LOUISIANA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF MISSISSIPPI. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN
BILOXI AND IN PASCAGOULA IN MISSISSIPPI...AND INTO
ALABAMA. PASCAGOULA IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 1/4 OF
A MILE WITH FOG. MILTON FLORIDA IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY
OF 1/4 OF A MILE WITH FOG. VISIBILITIES OF 1/8 OF A MILE
WITH FOG AND 1/4 OF A MILE WITH FOG ARE FOUND IN THE AREA
PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND IN BROOKVILLE. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR
SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KCRH...KHQI...AND KMYT.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA...TO 15N78W
ABOUT 145 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS NEAR TRINIDAD
AND TOBAGO...CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS
OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA...TO 11N77W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO 13N82W AND INTO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH
THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER...AND BEYOND 8N84W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST FROM 5N TO 6N...
FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTS
OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND WEAKENING IN THE GULF OF URABA
OF COLOMBIA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 18N
TO THE WEST OF 80W...INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND
77W.

HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW PASSES
ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA AND
JAMAICA...TO 15N78W ABOUT 145 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH
OF 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...INCLUDING IN INTERIOR SECTIONS
HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS
AND CUBA.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 28N60W TO
23N64W AND 21N72W IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. RAINSHOWERS ALSO
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W 24N60W 20N62W...INCLUDING ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA.

THE GFS MODEL GIVES A FORECAST OF A TROUGH FROM 250 MB
TO 500 MB AND TO 700 MB. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW FORECAST
IS MOSTLY EASTERLY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT IN ORDER TO HELP
TO GIVE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N60W...
TOWARD ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 31N68W...BEYOND
32N72W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 29N67W
29N73W AND 32N76W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N38W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N37W 19N50W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N54W TO 28N60W 23N64W AND 21N72W IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 34N
BETWEEN 51W AND 61W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N50W 24N60W 20N62W...INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 29N70W...INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N89W...TO 19N97W IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH
OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190953
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAY 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT
07N77W TO 08N107W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE OF FORMER
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN NOW AT 12N119W. SCATTEROMETER WINDS
INDICATE AN ITCZ EXTENDS SW FROM NEAR THE REMNANT LOW TO BEYOND
06N140W. SMALL ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...ROUGHLY WITHIN
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N83W TO 06N87W TO 07N97W TO
10N103W.   SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINES FROM
09N118W TO 08N123W AND FROM 08N129W TO 06N139W.

THE 1007 MB REMNANTS OF ALVIN ARE CENTERED NEAR 12N115.5W ALONG
A SW-NE ORIENTATED TROUGH WITH NE-E-SE WINDS AT 20-30 KT WITHIN
240 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE PER A RECENT ASCAT-B
SCATTEROMETER PASS...WITH MAXIMUM SEAS OF 12 FT. A BROAD MIX OF
SWELL IS MAINTAINING SEAS OF 7-10 FT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 420 NM
OVER THE W...AND WITHIN 300 NM OVER THE E SEMICIRCLES OF THE
CENTER. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W AT ABOUT 8 KT TO NEAR
12N122.5W TONIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
REFORMATION EXISTING FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS BEFORE THE ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES EVEN MORE HOSTILE. THE LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK JUST S
OF DUE W ON MON REACHING NEAR 11.5N125.5W ON MON NIGHT. BY THEN
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT WITHIN ABOUT 270 NM
NW OF CENTER. DISSIPATING REMNANTS OF THE LOW MAY PERSIST AS A
WEAK CYCLONE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH WELL INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING TO AN OPEN TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW TO SE FROM 32N131W TO 18N109W.
NW WINDS ARE AT 10-15 KT ALONG THE ENTIRE W SHORE OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL
RELAX SOME ON MON SUPPORTING MOSTLY W-NW WINDS AT 10 KT WITH
LITTLE CHANGE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH WED. A SURGE OF NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE N-CENTRAL PACIFIC WATERS N OF 27N
BETWEEN 118W-125W TONIGHT WITH SEAS MAXING AT 8 FT IN THE
ASSOCIATED N SWELL. A REINFORCING N SURGE AT 20 KT WILL ARRIVE
ALONG 32N ON TUE WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE
PACIFIC WATERS N OF 23N BETWEEN 115W-140W ON WED NIGHT...WITH
SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 13 FT IN LONG PERIOD N SWELL. SEAS OF 7-9
FT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE N OF
28N.

ALOFT...A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME...ORIGINATING FROM THE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN
AND OTHER CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN
115W-125W...CONCENTRATES INTO A 600 NM WIDE PLUME FROM 08N122W
TO 22N106W THEN CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND ACROSS THE
NW GULF OF MEXICO.

$$
NELSON

000
AXNT20 KNHC 190603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CURVES ALONG 12N53W 9N55W 6N54W AT THE
COAST OF SURINAME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN
THE WATER TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE
NEAR 8N13W TO 6N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N16W TO
4N30W 2N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 49W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S51W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED STRONG IN CLUSTERS FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN THE
PRIME MERIDIAN AND 15W...FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 25W AND
33W...AND FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 43W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 94W/95W
FROM 20N IN MEXICO BEYOND THE BORDER OF EASTERN TEXAS
AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE IS
STREAMING FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
WEST OF 85W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N58W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 29N70W...INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W
28N92W 25N95W...AND TO 19N97W IN THE MEXICO COASTAL
PLAINS...OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE
EAST OF 91W...INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS STATIONS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE
ELSEWHERE IN LOUISIANA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF MISSISSIPPI. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN
BILOXI AND IN PASCAGOULA IN MISSISSIPPI...AND IN MOBILE
ALABAMA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN FLORIDA...IN DESTIN/
FORT WALTON BEACH...PUNTA GORDA...FORT MYERS...AND IN
NAPLES. TALLAHASSEE IS REPORTING A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KGVX...KVBS...KCRH...KHQI...AND KDLP.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE
REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA...TO 17N78W
TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS NEAR TRINIDAD
AND TOBAGO...CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS
OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA...TO 11N77W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO 13N82W AND INTO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO
6N76W...ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL PANAMA...TO 9N88W AND
BEYOND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG ALONG THE COLOMBIA
COAST FROM 4N TO 8N IN PANAMA...AND WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 7N82W OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN PANAMA.

RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 18N
TO THE WEST OF 80W...INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND
77W.

HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW PASSES
ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA AND
JAMAICA...TO 17N78W TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 17N
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...INCLUDING IN INTERIOR SECTIONS
HISPANIOLA TO THE WEST OF 70W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SUPPORTS A SLOWLY-WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 28N60W TO 23N65W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N51W
23N60W 20N63W...INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA.

THE GFS MODEL GIVES A FORECAST OF A TROUGH FROM 250 MB
TO 500 MB AND TO 700 MB. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW FORECAST
IS MOSTLY EASTERLY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT IN ORDER TO HELP
TO GIVE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N57W
TO 30N64W 26N65W AND TO 24N80W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 32N67W 32N72W...
CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES NORTHWESTWARD
BEYOND 32N72W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 28N66W
AND 28N74W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N37W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 21N41W 18N51W AND 17N59W.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SLOWLY-WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 28N60W 23N65W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N51W 23N60W 20N63W...INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 29N70W...INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W 28N92W 25N95W...AND TO 19N97W
IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF
10N TO THE EAST OF 50W. A RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N37W
TO 24N43W AND 10N39W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

000
AXNT20 KNHC 190603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CURVES ALONG 12N53W 9N55W 6N54W AT THE
COAST OF SURINAME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN
THE WATER TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE
NEAR 8N13W TO 6N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N16W TO
4N30W 2N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 49W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S51W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED STRONG IN CLUSTERS FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN THE
PRIME MERIDIAN AND 15W...FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 25W AND
33W...AND FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 43W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 94W/95W
FROM 20N IN MEXICO BEYOND THE BORDER OF EASTERN TEXAS
AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE IS
STREAMING FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
WEST OF 85W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N58W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 29N70W...INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W
28N92W 25N95W...AND TO 19N97W IN THE MEXICO COASTAL
PLAINS...OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE
EAST OF 91W...INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS STATIONS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE
ELSEWHERE IN LOUISIANA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF MISSISSIPPI. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN
BILOXI AND IN PASCAGOULA IN MISSISSIPPI...AND IN MOBILE
ALABAMA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN FLORIDA...IN DESTIN/
FORT WALTON BEACH...PUNTA GORDA...FORT MYERS...AND IN
NAPLES. TALLAHASSEE IS REPORTING A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KGVX...KVBS...KCRH...KHQI...AND KDLP.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE
REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA...TO 17N78W
TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS NEAR TRINIDAD
AND TOBAGO...CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS
OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA...TO 11N77W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO 13N82W AND INTO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO
6N76W...ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL PANAMA...TO 9N88W AND
BEYOND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG ALONG THE COLOMBIA
COAST FROM 4N TO 8N IN PANAMA...AND WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 7N82W OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN PANAMA.

RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 18N
TO THE WEST OF 80W...INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND
77W.

HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW PASSES
ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA AND
JAMAICA...TO 17N78W TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 17N
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...INCLUDING IN INTERIOR SECTIONS
HISPANIOLA TO THE WEST OF 70W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SUPPORTS A SLOWLY-WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 28N60W TO 23N65W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N51W
23N60W 20N63W...INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA.

THE GFS MODEL GIVES A FORECAST OF A TROUGH FROM 250 MB
TO 500 MB AND TO 700 MB. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW FORECAST
IS MOSTLY EASTERLY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT IN ORDER TO HELP
TO GIVE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N57W
TO 30N64W 26N65W AND TO 24N80W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 32N67W 32N72W...
CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES NORTHWESTWARD
BEYOND 32N72W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 28N66W
AND 28N74W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N37W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 21N41W 18N51W AND 17N59W.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SLOWLY-WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 28N60W 23N65W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N51W 23N60W 20N63W...INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 29N70W...INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W 28N92W 25N95W...AND TO 19N97W
IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF
10N TO THE EAST OF 50W. A RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N37W
TO 24N43W AND 10N39W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190544
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT MAY 18 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED...
AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190544
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT MAY 18 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED...
AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190222
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAY 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE 1007 MB REMNANTS OF ALVIN ARE CENTERED NEAR 12N118W...MOVING
W AT 10 KT. ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION BETWEEN 90 AND 300 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT OF
THE LOW. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED 20-
30 KT WINDS AND 8-12 FT SEAS AROUND THE LOW. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO CONTINUED UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD TRACK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N78W TO 09N88W TO 07N103W
TO 09N106W...THEN RESUMES FROM 1007 MB LOW PRES...REMNANTS OF
ALVIN...NEAR 12N118W TO 09N125W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N125W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90
NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 120W AND 123W...AND ALSO
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

1029 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 36N135W WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING SE THROUGH 32N128W TO 20N110W. MAINLY MODERATE N
THROUGH E WINDS ARE FOUND UNDER THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS N
OF 17N W OF 115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND
TROUGHING OVER INTERIOR CALIFORNIA WILL TIGHTEN...INCREASING
WINDS W OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST FROM 20-25 KT TO GALE FORCE N OF
24N BY SUN AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL GENERATE AND SEND A NW
SWELL S TO 29N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W BY SUN AFTERNOON...
SHIFTING TO BETWEEN 120W AND 128W BY MON EVENING.

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE W CENTRAL
WATERS AND 8-9 FT SEAS IN MIXED NE WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD SW
SWELL COVER THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM 16N140W TO 13N128W TO
06N140W. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS
THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS...ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO LESS
THAN 8 FT BY SUN MORNING.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL IS MAINTAINING 8-9 FT SEAS
IN THE S CENTRAL WATERS S OF A LINE FROM 00N100W TO 04N110W TO
04N120W TO 00N127W. THE COVERAGE AND HEIGHT OF THESE SEAS WILL
NOT VARY MUCH THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COVER THE E PACIFIC
GULF AREAS WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED.

$$
LEWITSKY

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190222
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAY 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE 1007 MB REMNANTS OF ALVIN ARE CENTERED NEAR 12N118W...MOVING
W AT 10 KT. ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION BETWEEN 90 AND 300 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT OF
THE LOW. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED 20-
30 KT WINDS AND 8-12 FT SEAS AROUND THE LOW. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO CONTINUED UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD TRACK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N78W TO 09N88W TO 07N103W
TO 09N106W...THEN RESUMES FROM 1007 MB LOW PRES...REMNANTS OF
ALVIN...NEAR 12N118W TO 09N125W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N125W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90
NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 120W AND 123W...AND ALSO
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

1029 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 36N135W WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING SE THROUGH 32N128W TO 20N110W. MAINLY MODERATE N
THROUGH E WINDS ARE FOUND UNDER THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS N
OF 17N W OF 115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND
TROUGHING OVER INTERIOR CALIFORNIA WILL TIGHTEN...INCREASING
WINDS W OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST FROM 20-25 KT TO GALE FORCE N OF
24N BY SUN AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL GENERATE AND SEND A NW
SWELL S TO 29N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W BY SUN AFTERNOON...
SHIFTING TO BETWEEN 120W AND 128W BY MON EVENING.

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE W CENTRAL
WATERS AND 8-9 FT SEAS IN MIXED NE WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD SW
SWELL COVER THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM 16N140W TO 13N128W TO
06N140W. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS
THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS...ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO LESS
THAN 8 FT BY SUN MORNING.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL IS MAINTAINING 8-9 FT SEAS
IN THE S CENTRAL WATERS S OF A LINE FROM 00N100W TO 04N110W TO
04N120W TO 00N127W. THE COVERAGE AND HEIGHT OF THESE SEAS WILL
NOT VARY MUCH THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COVER THE E PACIFIC
GULF AREAS WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED.

$$
LEWITSKY