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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201455
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.8N 136.6W AT 20/1500
UTC AND IS NEAR STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER
OVER ALL BUT THE NW QUADRANT. KARINA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY.
KARINA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DRIFTING EASTWARD THU. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL IS CENTERED NEAR 19.1N 121.2W AT 20/1500
UTC MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO
55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM
OF THE CENTER OVER THE S SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA ELSEWHERE FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 118W-
124W. LOWELL REMAINS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION WITH TROPICAL
STORM WINDS EXTENDING OUT FROM THE CENTER TO 170 NM. ALTIMETER
PASSES AROUND 0400 UTC PROVIDED EXCELLENT SEA HEIGHT DATA FOR
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...INCLUDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE RADIUS
OF 12 FT SEAS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF OF MEXICO IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 16N95W TO 1008 MB LOW NEAR 08N94W MOVING W 10
TO 15 KT OVER PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS A BROAD AREA N OF 9N TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA/MEXICO BETWEEN 88W-102W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
PERIPHERAL WINDS WILL INCREASE DOWNSTREAM FROM GULF OF PAPAGAYO
TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW THE LOW TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS
IT CONTINUES WESTWARD. THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N78W TO 1008 MB LOW NEAR 8N94W
ALONG 8N104W TO 9N111W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 77W-
82W AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 94W-107W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1026 MB HIGH IS WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING SE THROUGH 32N133W TO BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR
30N116W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN MODERATE WINDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF THE CIRCULATION
INFLUENCE OF KARINA AND LOWELL. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT N AS
LOWELL MOVES POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS . THIS WILL
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA INCREASING WINDS TO STRONG BY FRI MORNING.

STRONG GAP WINDS ARE IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING AND WILL
SHIFT W TODAY BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS
AND SEAS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE.

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH
23N126W TO E OF T.S. LOWELL NEAR 17N110W. THIS IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-17N
BETWEEN 104W-112W AND FROM 19N-25N E OF 110W TO COAST OF MEXICO
INCLUDING S GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201455
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.8N 136.6W AT 20/1500
UTC AND IS NEAR STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER
OVER ALL BUT THE NW QUADRANT. KARINA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY.
KARINA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DRIFTING EASTWARD THU. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL IS CENTERED NEAR 19.1N 121.2W AT 20/1500
UTC MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO
55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM
OF THE CENTER OVER THE S SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA ELSEWHERE FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 118W-
124W. LOWELL REMAINS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION WITH TROPICAL
STORM WINDS EXTENDING OUT FROM THE CENTER TO 170 NM. ALTIMETER
PASSES AROUND 0400 UTC PROVIDED EXCELLENT SEA HEIGHT DATA FOR
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...INCLUDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE RADIUS
OF 12 FT SEAS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF OF MEXICO IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 16N95W TO 1008 MB LOW NEAR 08N94W MOVING W 10
TO 15 KT OVER PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS A BROAD AREA N OF 9N TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA/MEXICO BETWEEN 88W-102W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
PERIPHERAL WINDS WILL INCREASE DOWNSTREAM FROM GULF OF PAPAGAYO
TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW THE LOW TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS
IT CONTINUES WESTWARD. THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N78W TO 1008 MB LOW NEAR 8N94W
ALONG 8N104W TO 9N111W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 77W-
82W AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 94W-107W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1026 MB HIGH IS WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING SE THROUGH 32N133W TO BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR
30N116W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN MODERATE WINDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF THE CIRCULATION
INFLUENCE OF KARINA AND LOWELL. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT N AS
LOWELL MOVES POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS . THIS WILL
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA INCREASING WINDS TO STRONG BY FRI MORNING.

STRONG GAP WINDS ARE IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING AND WILL
SHIFT W TODAY BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS
AND SEAS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE.

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH
23N126W TO E OF T.S. LOWELL NEAR 17N110W. THIS IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-17N
BETWEEN 104W-112W AND FROM 19N-25N E OF 110W TO COAST OF MEXICO
INCLUDING S GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

$$
PAW



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 201434
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...KARINA FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE FOR A DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 136.6W
ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1805 MI...2905 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.6 WEST. KARINA
HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. AN EASTWARD DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 201434
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
1500 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 121.2W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 360SE 200SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 121.2W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 121.1W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N 121.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.2N 122.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.1N 123.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.5N 127.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 26.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 27.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 121.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN





000
WTPZ32 KNHC 201434
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...LOWELL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 121.2W
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.2 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 201434
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
1500 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 121.2W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 360SE 200SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 121.2W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 121.1W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N 121.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.2N 122.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.1N 123.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.5N 127.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 26.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 27.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 121.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN





000
WTPZ32 KNHC 201434
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...LOWELL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 121.2W
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.2 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 201434
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
1500 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 136.6W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 136.6W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 136.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.8N 136.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.2N 136.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.2N 135.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.0N 132.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 20.5N 129.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 26.5N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 136.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 201434
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
1500 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 121.2W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 360SE 200SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 121.2W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 121.1W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N 121.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.2N 122.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.1N 123.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.5N 127.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 26.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 27.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 121.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 201434
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
1500 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 136.6W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 136.6W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 136.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.8N 136.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.2N 136.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.2N 135.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.0N 132.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 20.5N 129.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 26.5N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 136.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 201434
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
1500 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 121.2W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 360SE 200SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 121.2W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 121.1W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N 121.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.2N 122.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.1N 123.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.5N 127.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 26.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 27.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 121.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 201434
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
1500 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 136.6W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 136.6W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 136.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.8N 136.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.2N 136.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.2N 135.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.0N 132.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 20.5N 129.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 26.5N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 136.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





000
WTPZ31 KNHC 201434
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...KARINA FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE FOR A DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 136.6W
ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1805 MI...2905 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.6 WEST. KARINA
HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. AN EASTWARD DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 201434
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...LOWELL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 121.2W
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.2 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
WTPZ21 KNHC 201434
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
1500 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 136.6W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 136.6W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 136.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.8N 136.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.2N 136.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.2N 135.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.0N 132.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 20.5N 129.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 26.5N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 136.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





000
WTPZ31 KNHC 201434
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...KARINA FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE FOR A DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 136.6W
ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1805 MI...2905 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.6 WEST. KARINA
HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. AN EASTWARD DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 201434
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...LOWELL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 121.2W
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.2 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
WTPZ21 KNHC 201434
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
1500 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 136.6W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 136.6W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 136.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.8N 136.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.2N 136.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.2N 135.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.0N 132.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 20.5N 129.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 26.5N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 136.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





000
WTPZ31 KNHC 201434
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...KARINA FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE FOR A DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 136.6W
ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1805 MI...2905 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.6 WEST. KARINA
HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. AN EASTWARD DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 201434
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...LOWELL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 121.2W
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.2 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 201215 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

CORRECTION TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
INCLUDING A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N53W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO INJECT ENERGY INTO THE LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS WITH MOST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS W-NW TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND NE
CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 51W-57W. THE CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS
MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N19W TO 24N19W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS AND COINCIDES WITH AN AMPLIFIED 700 MB TROUGH
BETWEEN 16W-24W AND 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FOCUSED IN THE
VICINITY OF 14N21W WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND IN
VICINITY OF A 1013 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 21N. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N45W TO 23N51W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND A MAXIMUM IN
850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N59W TO 21N61W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
700 MB TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS LIKELY MERGED WITH
MID-LATITUDE 700 MB TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...HOWEVER
RESIDUAL ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST OF THE 1009 MB SPECIAL
FEATURES LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N53W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N93W TO 19N95W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE LIES IN THE EAST
PACIFIC REGION...HOWEVER 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FIELDS REMAIN
MAXIMIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA THAT
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM
14N-19N BETWEEN 93W-98W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W TO
13N26W TO 15N39W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N53W TO 08N59W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 25W-28W...
AND FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 43W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N97W THAT INFLUENCES MUCH
OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W WITH MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. WHILE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 28N ACROSS THE
BASIN...DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS FROM 24N-
28N BETWEEN 91W-96W. ELSEWHERE...THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THIS MORNING. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN
82W-96W DUE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N81W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG 28N/29N THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ALOFT...ONE CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N82W AND THE OTHER CENTERED NEAR 22N64W THAT
EXTENDS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
E OF 72W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND
THIS IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...
HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN N
OF 16N BETWEEN 63W-71W. THE AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE NE CARIBBEAN HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
SW CARIBBEAN IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH
AXIS ALONG 09N/10N. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST GENERALLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS IN
THE MONA PASSAGE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COVERING A LARGE AREA
TO THE EAST ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 63W-
71W. THE APPROACH OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL ALSO IMPACT THE
ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH THE USUAL POSSIBILITY
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
NEAR 26N81W THAT EXTENDS AN AXIS NE TO 32N70W SUPPORTING SURFACE
RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 60W. TO THE NORTH
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 27N/28N...LOWER PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF THE DELMARVA EXTENDS WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 27N81W TO
BEYOND 32N78W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 28N. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR SKIES
AND CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE
AZORES NEAR 34N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 201215 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

CORRECTION TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
INCLUDING A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N53W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO INJECT ENERGY INTO THE LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS WITH MOST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS W-NW TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND NE
CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 51W-57W. THE CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS
MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N19W TO 24N19W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS AND COINCIDES WITH AN AMPLIFIED 700 MB TROUGH
BETWEEN 16W-24W AND 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FOCUSED IN THE
VICINITY OF 14N21W WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND IN
VICINITY OF A 1013 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 21N. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N45W TO 23N51W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND A MAXIMUM IN
850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N59W TO 21N61W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
700 MB TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS LIKELY MERGED WITH
MID-LATITUDE 700 MB TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...HOWEVER
RESIDUAL ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST OF THE 1009 MB SPECIAL
FEATURES LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N53W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N93W TO 19N95W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE LIES IN THE EAST
PACIFIC REGION...HOWEVER 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FIELDS REMAIN
MAXIMIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA THAT
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM
14N-19N BETWEEN 93W-98W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W TO
13N26W TO 15N39W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N53W TO 08N59W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 25W-28W...
AND FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 43W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N97W THAT INFLUENCES MUCH
OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W WITH MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. WHILE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 28N ACROSS THE
BASIN...DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS FROM 24N-
28N BETWEEN 91W-96W. ELSEWHERE...THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THIS MORNING. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN
82W-96W DUE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N81W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG 28N/29N THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ALOFT...ONE CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N82W AND THE OTHER CENTERED NEAR 22N64W THAT
EXTENDS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
E OF 72W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND
THIS IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...
HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN N
OF 16N BETWEEN 63W-71W. THE AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE NE CARIBBEAN HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
SW CARIBBEAN IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH
AXIS ALONG 09N/10N. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST GENERALLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS IN
THE MONA PASSAGE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COVERING A LARGE AREA
TO THE EAST ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 63W-
71W. THE APPROACH OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL ALSO IMPACT THE
ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH THE USUAL POSSIBILITY
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
NEAR 26N81W THAT EXTENDS AN AXIS NE TO 32N70W SUPPORTING SURFACE
RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 60W. TO THE NORTH
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 27N/28N...LOWER PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF THE DELMARVA EXTENDS WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 27N81W TO
BEYOND 32N78W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 28N. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR SKIES
AND CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE
AZORES NEAR 34N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 201151
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT MIERCOLES 20 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ESTA ASOCIADA CON UN
AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS
AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO SUR. DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE
SISTEMA ES POSIBLE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA
EL OESTE NOROESTE ENTRE 10 Y 15 MPH A TRAVES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES
Y HACIA EL MAR CARIBE. LOS INTERESES EN LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y EL
NORESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE
SISTEMA.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...30 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.

UNA ONDA TROPICAL LOCALIZADA A CERCA DE 1000 MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS
DESORGANIZADAS. DE OCURRIR ALGUN DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA...DEBE
SER LENTO DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVA HACIA EL
OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. LUEGO...DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA
NO SE ANTICIPA A MEDIDA QUE COMIENCE A INTERACTUAR CON EL DISTURBIO
LOCALIZADO AL OESTE.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 201151
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT MIERCOLES 20 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ESTA ASOCIADA CON UN
AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS
AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO SUR. DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE
SISTEMA ES POSIBLE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA
EL OESTE NOROESTE ENTRE 10 Y 15 MPH A TRAVES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES
Y HACIA EL MAR CARIBE. LOS INTERESES EN LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y EL
NORESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE
SISTEMA.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...30 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.

UNA ONDA TROPICAL LOCALIZADA A CERCA DE 1000 MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS
DESORGANIZADAS. DE OCURRIR ALGUN DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA...DEBE
SER LENTO DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVA HACIA EL
OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. LUEGO...DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA
NO SE ANTICIPA A MEDIDA QUE COMIENCE A INTERACTUAR CON EL DISTURBIO
LOCALIZADO AL OESTE.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN





000
ABNT20 KNHC 201143
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity is associated with
an elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east
of the southern Windward Islands. Gradual development of this
system is possible during the next few days while it moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser Antilles and
into the Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Lesser Antilles and
the northeastern Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Any development of this system should be slow
to occur during the next day or two while it moves toward the
west-northwest at about 10 mph. After that time, development of
this system is not anticipated as it begins to interact with the
disturbance located to its west.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ABNT20 KNHC 201143
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity is associated with
an elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east
of the southern Windward Islands. Gradual development of this
system is possible during the next few days while it moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser Antilles and
into the Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Lesser Antilles and
the northeastern Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Any development of this system should be slow
to occur during the next day or two while it moves toward the
west-northwest at about 10 mph. After that time, development of
this system is not anticipated as it begins to interact with the
disturbance located to its west.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ABNT20 KNHC 201143
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity is associated with
an elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east
of the southern Windward Islands. Gradual development of this
system is possible during the next few days while it moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser Antilles and
into the Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Lesser Antilles and
the northeastern Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Any development of this system should be slow
to occur during the next day or two while it moves toward the
west-northwest at about 10 mph. After that time, development of
this system is not anticipated as it begins to interact with the
disturbance located to its west.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ABNT20 KNHC 201143
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity is associated with
an elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east
of the southern Windward Islands. Gradual development of this
system is possible during the next few days while it moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser Antilles and
into the Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Lesser Antilles and
the northeastern Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Any development of this system should be slow
to occur during the next day or two while it moves toward the
west-northwest at about 10 mph. After that time, development of
this system is not anticipated as it begins to interact with the
disturbance located to its west.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ACPN50 PHFO 201130
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST WED AUG 20 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WAS NEARLY STATIONARY ABOUT 850 MILES
SOUTH OF HONOLULU. IRREGULAR...PULSING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP AROUND THE LOW...BUT THIS FEATURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

$$

RYSHKO




000
ACPN50 PHFO 201130
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST WED AUG 20 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WAS NEARLY STATIONARY ABOUT 850 MILES
SOUTH OF HONOLULU. IRREGULAR...PULSING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP AROUND THE LOW...BUT THIS FEATURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

$$

RYSHKO





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201122
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located a little
more than 700 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for this system to develop into a tropical depression by the end of
the week while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201122
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located a little
more than 700 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for this system to develop into a tropical depression by the end of
the week while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
AXNT20 KNHC 201103
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N53W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO INJECT ENERGY INTO THE LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS WITH MOST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS W-NW TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND NE
CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 51W-57W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N19W TO 24N19W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS AND COINCIDES WITH AN AMPLIFIED 700 MB TROUGH
BETWEEN 16W-24W AND 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FOCUSED IN THE
VICINITY OF 14N21W WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND IN
VICINITY OF A 1013 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 21N. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N45W TO 23N51W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND A MAXIMUM IN
850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N59W TO 21N61W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
700 MB TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS LIKELY MERGED WITH
MID-LATITUDE 700 MB TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...HOWEVER
RESIDUAL ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST OF THE 1009 MB SPECIAL
FEATURES LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N53W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N93W TO 19N95W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE LIES IN THE EAST
PACIFIC REGION...HOWEVER 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FIELDS REMAIN
MAXIMIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA THAT
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM
14N-19N BETWEEN 93W-98W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W TO
13N26W TO 15N39W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N53W TO 08N59W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 25W-28W...
AND FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 43W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N97W THAT INFLUENCES MUCH
OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W WITH MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. WHILE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 28N ACROSS THE
BASIN...DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS FROM 24N-
28N BETWEEN 91W-96W. ELSEWHERE...THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THIS MORNING. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN
82W-96W DUE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N81W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG 28N/29N THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ALOFT...ONE CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N82W AND THE OTHER CENTERED NEAR 22N64W THAT
EXTENDS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
E OF 72W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND
THIS IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...
HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN N
OF 16N BETWEEN 63W-71W. THE AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE NE CARIBBEAN HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
SW CARIBBEAN IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH
AXIS ALONG 09N/10N. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST GENERALLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS IN
THE MONA PASSAGE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COVERING A LARGE AREA
TO THE EAST ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 63W-
71W. THE APPROACH OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL ALSO IMPACT THE
ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH THE USUAL POSSIBILITY
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
NEAR 26N81W THAT EXTENDS AN AXIS NE TO 32N70W SUPPORTING SURFACE
RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 60W. TO THE NORTH
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 27N/28N...LOWER PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF THE DELMARVA EXTENDS WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 27N81W TO
BEYOND 32N78W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 28N. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR SKIES
AND CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE
AZORES NEAR 34N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 201103
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N53W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO INJECT ENERGY INTO THE LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS WITH MOST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS W-NW TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND NE
CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 51W-57W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N19W TO 24N19W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS AND COINCIDES WITH AN AMPLIFIED 700 MB TROUGH
BETWEEN 16W-24W AND 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FOCUSED IN THE
VICINITY OF 14N21W WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND IN
VICINITY OF A 1013 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 21N. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N45W TO 23N51W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND A MAXIMUM IN
850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N59W TO 21N61W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
700 MB TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS LIKELY MERGED WITH
MID-LATITUDE 700 MB TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...HOWEVER
RESIDUAL ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST OF THE 1009 MB SPECIAL
FEATURES LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N53W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N93W TO 19N95W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE LIES IN THE EAST
PACIFIC REGION...HOWEVER 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FIELDS REMAIN
MAXIMIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA THAT
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM
14N-19N BETWEEN 93W-98W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W TO
13N26W TO 15N39W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N53W TO 08N59W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 25W-28W...
AND FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 43W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N97W THAT INFLUENCES MUCH
OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W WITH MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. WHILE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 28N ACROSS THE
BASIN...DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS FROM 24N-
28N BETWEEN 91W-96W. ELSEWHERE...THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THIS MORNING. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN
82W-96W DUE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N81W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG 28N/29N THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ALOFT...ONE CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N82W AND THE OTHER CENTERED NEAR 22N64W THAT
EXTENDS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
E OF 72W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND
THIS IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...
HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN N
OF 16N BETWEEN 63W-71W. THE AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE NE CARIBBEAN HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
SW CARIBBEAN IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH
AXIS ALONG 09N/10N. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST GENERALLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS IN
THE MONA PASSAGE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COVERING A LARGE AREA
TO THE EAST ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 63W-
71W. THE APPROACH OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL ALSO IMPACT THE
ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH THE USUAL POSSIBILITY
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
NEAR 26N81W THAT EXTENDS AN AXIS NE TO 32N70W SUPPORTING SURFACE
RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 60W. TO THE NORTH
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 27N/28N...LOWER PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF THE DELMARVA EXTENDS WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 27N81W TO
BEYOND 32N78W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 28N. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR SKIES
AND CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE
AZORES NEAR 34N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200920
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA CENTERED NEAR 15.9N 135.9W AT 20/0900 UTC
MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
CENTER EXCEPT IN THE NW QUADRANT. KARINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL CENTERED NEAR 18.7N 121.0W AT 20/0900 UTC
MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM
OF THE S SEMICIRCLE. LOWELL REMAINS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION. A
PAIR OF ALTIMETER PASSES AROUND 0400 UTC PROVIDED EXCELLENT SEA
HEIGHT DATA FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...INCLUDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE RADIUS OF 12 FT SEAS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEAK LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 08N93W AT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W/95W IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER A BROAD AREA
FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 90W AND 99W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
PERIPHERAL WINDS WILL INCREASE DOWNSTREAM FROM GULF OF PAPAGAYO
TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW THE LOW TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS
IT CONTINUES WESTWARD. THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING W AT 15 KT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRES NEAR
08N93W TO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG 94W/95W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 14.5N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 10N87W TO LOW PRES NEAR
08N93W TO 09N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...

1026 MB HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA NEAR 40N144W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE
THROUGH 32N132W TO BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 27N115W. THE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT N AS LOWELL MOVES POLEWARD THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE RIDGE IS
MAINTAINING MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W
OUTSIDE OF THE CIRCULATION INFLUENCE OF KARINA AND LOWELL. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN 05N AND 15N E OF 110W.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200920
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA CENTERED NEAR 15.9N 135.9W AT 20/0900 UTC
MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
CENTER EXCEPT IN THE NW QUADRANT. KARINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL CENTERED NEAR 18.7N 121.0W AT 20/0900 UTC
MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM
OF THE S SEMICIRCLE. LOWELL REMAINS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION. A
PAIR OF ALTIMETER PASSES AROUND 0400 UTC PROVIDED EXCELLENT SEA
HEIGHT DATA FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...INCLUDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE RADIUS OF 12 FT SEAS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEAK LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 08N93W AT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W/95W IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER A BROAD AREA
FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 90W AND 99W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
PERIPHERAL WINDS WILL INCREASE DOWNSTREAM FROM GULF OF PAPAGAYO
TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW THE LOW TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS
IT CONTINUES WESTWARD. THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING W AT 15 KT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRES NEAR
08N93W TO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG 94W/95W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 14.5N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 10N87W TO LOW PRES NEAR
08N93W TO 09N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...

1026 MB HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA NEAR 40N144W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE
THROUGH 32N132W TO BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 27N115W. THE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT N AS LOWELL MOVES POLEWARD THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE RIDGE IS
MAINTAINING MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W
OUTSIDE OF THE CIRCULATION INFLUENCE OF KARINA AND LOWELL. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN 05N AND 15N E OF 110W.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200920
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA CENTERED NEAR 15.9N 135.9W AT 20/0900 UTC
MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
CENTER EXCEPT IN THE NW QUADRANT. KARINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL CENTERED NEAR 18.7N 121.0W AT 20/0900 UTC
MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM
OF THE S SEMICIRCLE. LOWELL REMAINS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION. A
PAIR OF ALTIMETER PASSES AROUND 0400 UTC PROVIDED EXCELLENT SEA
HEIGHT DATA FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...INCLUDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE RADIUS OF 12 FT SEAS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEAK LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 08N93W AT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W/95W IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER A BROAD AREA
FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 90W AND 99W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
PERIPHERAL WINDS WILL INCREASE DOWNSTREAM FROM GULF OF PAPAGAYO
TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW THE LOW TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS
IT CONTINUES WESTWARD. THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING W AT 15 KT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRES NEAR
08N93W TO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG 94W/95W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 14.5N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 10N87W TO LOW PRES NEAR
08N93W TO 09N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...

1026 MB HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA NEAR 40N144W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE
THROUGH 32N132W TO BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 27N115W. THE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT N AS LOWELL MOVES POLEWARD THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE RIDGE IS
MAINTAINING MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W
OUTSIDE OF THE CIRCULATION INFLUENCE OF KARINA AND LOWELL. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN 05N AND 15N E OF 110W.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200920
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA CENTERED NEAR 15.9N 135.9W AT 20/0900 UTC
MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
CENTER EXCEPT IN THE NW QUADRANT. KARINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL CENTERED NEAR 18.7N 121.0W AT 20/0900 UTC
MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM
OF THE S SEMICIRCLE. LOWELL REMAINS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION. A
PAIR OF ALTIMETER PASSES AROUND 0400 UTC PROVIDED EXCELLENT SEA
HEIGHT DATA FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...INCLUDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE RADIUS OF 12 FT SEAS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEAK LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 08N93W AT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W/95W IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER A BROAD AREA
FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 90W AND 99W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
PERIPHERAL WINDS WILL INCREASE DOWNSTREAM FROM GULF OF PAPAGAYO
TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW THE LOW TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS
IT CONTINUES WESTWARD. THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING W AT 15 KT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRES NEAR
08N93W TO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG 94W/95W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 14.5N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 10N87W TO LOW PRES NEAR
08N93W TO 09N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...

1026 MB HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA NEAR 40N144W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE
THROUGH 32N132W TO BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 27N115W. THE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT N AS LOWELL MOVES POLEWARD THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE RIDGE IS
MAINTAINING MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W
OUTSIDE OF THE CIRCULATION INFLUENCE OF KARINA AND LOWELL. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN 05N AND 15N E OF 110W.

$$
MUNDELL



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 200841
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...KARINA STILL MOVING WESTWARD BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN MEANDERING
LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 135.9W
ABOUT 1290 MI...2075 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1760 MI...2830 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.9 WEST.  KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H.  KARINA IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW DOWN AND BEGIN MEANDERING LATER TODAY BEFORE MOVING A LITTLE
FASTER TOWARD THE EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50
MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 200841
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...KARINA STILL MOVING WESTWARD BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN MEANDERING
LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 135.9W
ABOUT 1290 MI...2075 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1760 MI...2830 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.9 WEST.  KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H.  KARINA IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW DOWN AND BEGIN MEANDERING LATER TODAY BEFORE MOVING A LITTLE
FASTER TOWARD THE EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50
MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 200840
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0900 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 135.9W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE  40SE  80SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 135.9W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 135.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.9N 136.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.5N 136.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.2N 135.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.3N 135.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.0N 132.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 20.5N 129.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 25.5N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 135.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG





000
WTPZ21 KNHC 200840
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0900 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 135.9W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE  40SE  80SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 135.9W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 135.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.9N 136.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.5N 136.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.2N 135.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.3N 135.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.0N 132.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 20.5N 129.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 25.5N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 135.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 200838
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0900 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 121.0W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 121.0W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 120.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.1N 121.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.8N 121.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.5N 122.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.6N 123.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 120SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.0N 126.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 26.0N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 27.0N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 121.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI





000
WTPZ22 KNHC 200838
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0900 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 121.0W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 121.0W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 120.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.1N 121.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.8N 121.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.5N 122.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.6N 123.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 120SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.0N 126.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 26.0N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 27.0N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 121.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI





000
WTPZ32 KNHC 200838
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...LOWELL MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 121.0W
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.0 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H.  A SLOW NORTHWEST
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 200838
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0900 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 121.0W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 121.0W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 120.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.1N 121.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.8N 121.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.5N 122.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.6N 123.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 120SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.0N 126.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 26.0N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 27.0N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 121.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI





000
WTPZ22 KNHC 200838
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0900 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 121.0W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 121.0W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 120.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.1N 121.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.8N 121.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.5N 122.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.6N 123.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 120SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.0N 126.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 26.0N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 27.0N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 121.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI





000
WTPZ32 KNHC 200838
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...LOWELL MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 121.0W
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.0 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H.  A SLOW NORTHWEST
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 200838
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0900 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 121.0W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 121.0W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 120.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.1N 121.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.8N 121.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.5N 122.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.6N 123.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 120SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.0N 126.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 26.0N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 27.0N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 121.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI





000
WTPZ22 KNHC 200838
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0900 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 121.0W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 121.0W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 120.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.1N 121.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.8N 121.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.5N 122.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.6N 123.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 120SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.0N 126.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 26.0N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 27.0N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 121.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI





000
WTPZ32 KNHC 200838
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...LOWELL MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 121.0W
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.0 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H.  A SLOW NORTHWEST
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 200838
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

...LOWELL MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 121.0W
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.0 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H.  A SLOW NORTHWEST
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 200559
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT MIERCOLES 20 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LA ACTIVIDAD ASOCIADA A LA BAJA PRESION ALARGADA TIENE ACTUALMENTE
UNA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS LIMITADA. UN DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE
SISTEMA ES POSIBLE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVA
HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE DE 10 A 15 MPH A TRAVES DE LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES Y SOBRE EL MAR CARIBE. INTERESADOS EN LAS ANTILLAS MENORES
DEBEN MONITOREAR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...30
POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.

UNA ONDA TROPICAL LOCALIZADA A CERCA DE 1000 MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS
DESORGANIZADAS. DE OCURRIR ALGUN DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA...DEBE
SER LENTO DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVA HACIA EL
OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR CANGIALOSI




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 200559
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT MIERCOLES 20 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LA ACTIVIDAD ASOCIADA A LA BAJA PRESION ALARGADA TIENE ACTUALMENTE
UNA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS LIMITADA. UN DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE
SISTEMA ES POSIBLE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVA
HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE DE 10 A 15 MPH A TRAVES DE LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES Y SOBRE EL MAR CARIBE. INTERESADOS EN LAS ANTILLAS MENORES
DEBEN MONITOREAR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...30
POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.

UNA ONDA TROPICAL LOCALIZADA A CERCA DE 1000 MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS
DESORGANIZADAS. DE OCURRIR ALGUN DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA...DEBE
SER LENTO DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVA HACIA EL
OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR CANGIALOSI





000
AXNT20 KNHC 200545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N52W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO INJECT ENERGY INTO THE LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS WITH MOST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS W-NW TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND NE
CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-
13N BETWEEN 50W-56W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N18W TO 21N18W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS AND COINCIDES WITH AN AMPLIFIED 700 MB TROUGH
BETWEEN 16W-23W AND 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FOCUSED IN THE
VICINITY OF 14N20W WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND NEAR
21N19W AT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 17W-20W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N43W TO 21N48W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND A MAXIMUM IN
850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
NEAR 14N43W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE
WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N56W TO 20N57W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
700 MB TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS LIKELY MERGED WITH
MID-LATITUDE 700 MB TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...HOWEVER
RESIDUAL ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST OF THE 1009 MB SPECIAL
FEATURES LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N52W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N93W TO 21N91W MOVING W AT 20-25
KT. MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE LIES IN THE
EAST PACIFIC REGION...HOWEVER 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FIELDS
REMAIN MAXIMIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N-21N
BETWEEN 94W-98W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N20W TO
13N42W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N52W TO 09N61W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 25W-28W...AND FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 44W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N97W THAT INFLUENCES MUCH
OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W WITH MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. WHILE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 28N ACROSS THE
BASIN...DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO S OF 22N AND
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 89W-95W.
ELSEWHERE...THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC
IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THIS EVENING. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE NOTED E OF 90W AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES
THE GULF ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N81W. THE
SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG 28N/29N
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ALOFT...ONE CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N82W AND THE OTHER CENTERED NEAR 21N63W THAT
EXTENDS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
E OF 73W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND
THIS IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF
18N85W...AND ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 61W-70W.
THE AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN HAS
CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AS A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN IN AN
AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS SOUTH OF PANAMA IN THE EAST
PACIFIC. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
GENERALLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND
WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COVERING A LARGE AREA TO THE EAST ACROSS
THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 16N-
21N BETWEEN 61W-72W. THE APPROACH OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL
ALSO IMPACT THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH THE
USUAL POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DUE TO
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
NEAR 26N81W THAT EXTENDS AN AXIS NE TO 30N70W SUPPORTING SURFACE
RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 60W. TO THE NORTH
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 27N/28N...LOWER PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF THE DELMARVA EXTENDS WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO 30N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF 31N79W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER
OF THE SW NORTH ATLC REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR SKIES AND
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE
AZORES NEAR 35N33W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
34N20W TO 31N28W ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...HOWEVER IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 200545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N52W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO INJECT ENERGY INTO THE LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS WITH MOST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS W-NW TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND NE
CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-
13N BETWEEN 50W-56W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N18W TO 21N18W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS AND COINCIDES WITH AN AMPLIFIED 700 MB TROUGH
BETWEEN 16W-23W AND 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FOCUSED IN THE
VICINITY OF 14N20W WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND NEAR
21N19W AT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 17W-20W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N43W TO 21N48W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND A MAXIMUM IN
850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
NEAR 14N43W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE
WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N56W TO 20N57W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
700 MB TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS LIKELY MERGED WITH
MID-LATITUDE 700 MB TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...HOWEVER
RESIDUAL ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST OF THE 1009 MB SPECIAL
FEATURES LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N52W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N93W TO 21N91W MOVING W AT 20-25
KT. MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE LIES IN THE
EAST PACIFIC REGION...HOWEVER 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FIELDS
REMAIN MAXIMIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N-21N
BETWEEN 94W-98W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N20W TO
13N42W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N52W TO 09N61W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 25W-28W...AND FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 44W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N97W THAT INFLUENCES MUCH
OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W WITH MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. WHILE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 28N ACROSS THE
BASIN...DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO S OF 22N AND
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 89W-95W.
ELSEWHERE...THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC
IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THIS EVENING. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE NOTED E OF 90W AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES
THE GULF ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N81W. THE
SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG 28N/29N
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ALOFT...ONE CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N82W AND THE OTHER CENTERED NEAR 21N63W THAT
EXTENDS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
E OF 73W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND
THIS IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF
18N85W...AND ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 61W-70W.
THE AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN HAS
CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AS A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN IN AN
AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS SOUTH OF PANAMA IN THE EAST
PACIFIC. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
GENERALLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND
WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COVERING A LARGE AREA TO THE EAST ACROSS
THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 16N-
21N BETWEEN 61W-72W. THE APPROACH OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL
ALSO IMPACT THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH THE
USUAL POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DUE TO
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
NEAR 26N81W THAT EXTENDS AN AXIS NE TO 30N70W SUPPORTING SURFACE
RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 60W. TO THE NORTH
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 27N/28N...LOWER PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF THE DELMARVA EXTENDS WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO 30N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF 31N79W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER
OF THE SW NORTH ATLC REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR SKIES AND
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE
AZORES NEAR 35N33W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
34N20W TO 31N28W ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...HOWEVER IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 200545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N52W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO INJECT ENERGY INTO THE LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS WITH MOST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS W-NW TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND NE
CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-
13N BETWEEN 50W-56W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N18W TO 21N18W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS AND COINCIDES WITH AN AMPLIFIED 700 MB TROUGH
BETWEEN 16W-23W AND 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FOCUSED IN THE
VICINITY OF 14N20W WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND NEAR
21N19W AT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 17W-20W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N43W TO 21N48W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND A MAXIMUM IN
850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
NEAR 14N43W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE
WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N56W TO 20N57W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
700 MB TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS LIKELY MERGED WITH
MID-LATITUDE 700 MB TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...HOWEVER
RESIDUAL ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST OF THE 1009 MB SPECIAL
FEATURES LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N52W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N93W TO 21N91W MOVING W AT 20-25
KT. MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE LIES IN THE
EAST PACIFIC REGION...HOWEVER 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FIELDS
REMAIN MAXIMIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N-21N
BETWEEN 94W-98W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N20W TO
13N42W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N52W TO 09N61W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 25W-28W...AND FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 44W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N97W THAT INFLUENCES MUCH
OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W WITH MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. WHILE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 28N ACROSS THE
BASIN...DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO S OF 22N AND
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 89W-95W.
ELSEWHERE...THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC
IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THIS EVENING. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE NOTED E OF 90W AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES
THE GULF ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N81W. THE
SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG 28N/29N
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ALOFT...ONE CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N82W AND THE OTHER CENTERED NEAR 21N63W THAT
EXTENDS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
E OF 73W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND
THIS IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF
18N85W...AND ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 61W-70W.
THE AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN HAS
CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AS A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN IN AN
AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS SOUTH OF PANAMA IN THE EAST
PACIFIC. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
GENERALLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND
WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COVERING A LARGE AREA TO THE EAST ACROSS
THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 16N-
21N BETWEEN 61W-72W. THE APPROACH OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL
ALSO IMPACT THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH THE
USUAL POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DUE TO
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
NEAR 26N81W THAT EXTENDS AN AXIS NE TO 30N70W SUPPORTING SURFACE
RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 60W. TO THE NORTH
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 27N/28N...LOWER PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF THE DELMARVA EXTENDS WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO 30N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF 31N79W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER
OF THE SW NORTH ATLC REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR SKIES AND
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE
AZORES NEAR 35N33W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
34N20W TO 31N28W ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...HOWEVER IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 200545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N52W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO INJECT ENERGY INTO THE LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS WITH MOST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS W-NW TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND NE
CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-
13N BETWEEN 50W-56W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N18W TO 21N18W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS AND COINCIDES WITH AN AMPLIFIED 700 MB TROUGH
BETWEEN 16W-23W AND 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FOCUSED IN THE
VICINITY OF 14N20W WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND NEAR
21N19W AT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 17W-20W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N43W TO 21N48W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND A MAXIMUM IN
850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
NEAR 14N43W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE
WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N56W TO 20N57W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
700 MB TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS LIKELY MERGED WITH
MID-LATITUDE 700 MB TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...HOWEVER
RESIDUAL ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST OF THE 1009 MB SPECIAL
FEATURES LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N52W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N93W TO 21N91W MOVING W AT 20-25
KT. MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE LIES IN THE
EAST PACIFIC REGION...HOWEVER 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FIELDS
REMAIN MAXIMIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N-21N
BETWEEN 94W-98W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N20W TO
13N42W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N52W TO 09N61W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 25W-28W...AND FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 44W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N97W THAT INFLUENCES MUCH
OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W WITH MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. WHILE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 28N ACROSS THE
BASIN...DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO S OF 22N AND
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 89W-95W.
ELSEWHERE...THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC
IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THIS EVENING. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE NOTED E OF 90W AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES
THE GULF ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N81W. THE
SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG 28N/29N
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ALOFT...ONE CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N82W AND THE OTHER CENTERED NEAR 21N63W THAT
EXTENDS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
E OF 73W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND
THIS IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF
18N85W...AND ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 61W-70W.
THE AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN HAS
CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AS A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN IN AN
AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS SOUTH OF PANAMA IN THE EAST
PACIFIC. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
GENERALLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND
WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COVERING A LARGE AREA TO THE EAST ACROSS
THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 16N-
21N BETWEEN 61W-72W. THE APPROACH OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL
ALSO IMPACT THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH THE
USUAL POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DUE TO
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
NEAR 26N81W THAT EXTENDS AN AXIS NE TO 30N70W SUPPORTING SURFACE
RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 60W. TO THE NORTH
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 27N/28N...LOWER PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF THE DELMARVA EXTENDS WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO 30N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF 31N79W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER
OF THE SW NORTH ATLC REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR SKIES AND
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE
AZORES NEAR 35N33W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
34N20W TO 31N28W ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...HOWEVER IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200531
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located a little
more than 700 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for this
system to develop into a tropical depression by the end of the week
while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg


000
ABNT20 KNHC 200531
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity is currently limited in association with an
elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of
the southern Windward Islands.  Gradual development of this system
is possible during the next few days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser Antilles and
into the Caribbean Sea.  Interests in the Lesser Antilles should
closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Development of this system, if any, should be slow
to occur during the next several days while it moves toward the
west-northwest at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
ACPN50 PHFO 200530
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST TUE AUG 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WAS NEARLY STATIONARY ABOUT 800 MILES
SOUTH OF HONOLULU. IRREGULAR...PULSING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP AROUND THE LOW...BUT THIS FEATURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.


$$

RYSHKO




000
ACPN50 PHFO 200530
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST TUE AUG 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WAS NEARLY STATIONARY ABOUT 800 MILES
SOUTH OF HONOLULU. IRREGULAR...PULSING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP AROUND THE LOW...BUT THIS FEATURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.


$$

RYSHKO





000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200239
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA CENTERED NEAR 15.9N 135.3W...OR 1151 NM E
OF HILO HAWAII AT 20/0300 UTC MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 4 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM IN THE N...AND 120 NM IN THE S AND W
QUADRANTS. A CONTINUED DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
AND KARINA COULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BY WED NIGHT WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR NEAR 18.7N 120.7W...OR 656 NM WSW OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 20/0300 UTC MOVING NW OR
315 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM IN THE
E SEMICIRCLE...240 NM IN THE SW...AND 90 NM IN THE NW QUADRANTS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 150 AND 240 NM IN THE E
QUADRANT...AND ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 240 AND 420 NM IN THE SE
QUADRANT. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WED...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NNW WED NIGHT WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEAK LOW PRES IS FORMING NEAR 08N93W ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH EXTENDS ALONG 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM IN THE S
SEMICIRCLE AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM IN THE W QUADRANT.
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS ARE 20 KT OR LESS AND LESS
THAN 8 FT...HOWEVER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO
STRONG IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT WHICH WILL FEED INTO THE
LOW CIRCULATION WITH THE WINDS EXPANDING AND SPREADING WESTWARD
AROUND THE LOW AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD. THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM
FORMATION CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 08N93W TO NEAR THE
GUATEMALA/MEXICO BORDER CONTINUING NORTHWARD INTO THE EXTREME
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SEE THE DISCUSSION
ABOUT THE LOW ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO LOW PRES NEAR
08N93W TO 12N112W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 82W AND 90W...FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W...
FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W...FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN
103W AND 106W...AND FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 108W AND 110W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 10N W OF 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

1026 MB HIGH PRES IS NW OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 41N145W
EXTENDING A RIDGE SE THROUGH 32N132W TO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
NEAR 27N115W. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE N AS LOWELL MOVES IN
A GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION. THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING
MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W
OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCES OF KARINA AND LOWELL.

ELSEWHERE E OF 110W...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN SEA AND W OF COLOMBIA IN THE NE PACIFIC IS HELPING TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS PANAMA
AND GUATEMALA AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200239
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA CENTERED NEAR 15.9N 135.3W...OR 1151 NM E
OF HILO HAWAII AT 20/0300 UTC MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 4 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM IN THE N...AND 120 NM IN THE S AND W
QUADRANTS. A CONTINUED DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
AND KARINA COULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BY WED NIGHT WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR NEAR 18.7N 120.7W...OR 656 NM WSW OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 20/0300 UTC MOVING NW OR
315 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM IN THE
E SEMICIRCLE...240 NM IN THE SW...AND 90 NM IN THE NW QUADRANTS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 150 AND 240 NM IN THE E
QUADRANT...AND ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 240 AND 420 NM IN THE SE
QUADRANT. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WED...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NNW WED NIGHT WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEAK LOW PRES IS FORMING NEAR 08N93W ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH EXTENDS ALONG 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM IN THE S
SEMICIRCLE AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM IN THE W QUADRANT.
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS ARE 20 KT OR LESS AND LESS
THAN 8 FT...HOWEVER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO
STRONG IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT WHICH WILL FEED INTO THE
LOW CIRCULATION WITH THE WINDS EXPANDING AND SPREADING WESTWARD
AROUND THE LOW AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD. THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM
FORMATION CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 08N93W TO NEAR THE
GUATEMALA/MEXICO BORDER CONTINUING NORTHWARD INTO THE EXTREME
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SEE THE DISCUSSION
ABOUT THE LOW ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO LOW PRES NEAR
08N93W TO 12N112W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 82W AND 90W...FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W...
FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W...FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN
103W AND 106W...AND FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 108W AND 110W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 10N W OF 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

1026 MB HIGH PRES IS NW OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 41N145W
EXTENDING A RIDGE SE THROUGH 32N132W TO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
NEAR 27N115W. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE N AS LOWELL MOVES IN
A GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION. THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING
MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W
OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCES OF KARINA AND LOWELL.

ELSEWHERE E OF 110W...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN SEA AND W OF COLOMBIA IN THE NE PACIFIC IS HELPING TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS PANAMA
AND GUATEMALA AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING.

$$
LEWITSKY


000
WTPZ25 KNHC 200235
TCMEP5

HURRICANE JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102014
0300 UTC FRI AUG 08 2014

CORRECTED FOR CPHC BIN NUMBER AT BOTTOM

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JULIO.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 139.1W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  966 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 150SE 150SW 250NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 139.1W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 138.4W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.8N 141.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.5N 144.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.4N 147.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 20.6N 149.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.9N 154.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 24.2N 159.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 25.0N 163.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 139.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP4 AND
WMO HEADER WTPA24 PHFO...BEGINNING AT 08/0900Z.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




000
WTPZ25 KNHC 200235
TCMEP5

HURRICANE JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102014
0300 UTC FRI AUG 08 2014

CORRECTED FOR CPHC BIN NUMBER AT BOTTOM

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JULIO.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 139.1W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  966 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 150SE 150SW 250NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 139.1W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 138.4W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.8N 141.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.5N 144.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.4N 147.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 20.6N 149.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.9N 154.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 24.2N 159.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 25.0N 163.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 139.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP4 AND
WMO HEADER WTPA24 PHFO...BEGINNING AT 08/0900Z.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





000
WTPZ31 KNHC 200235
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...KARINA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 135.3W
ABOUT 1325 MI...2135 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1720 MI...2770 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.3 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED...AND KARINA COULD BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 200235
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0300 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 135.3W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 135.3W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 135.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.9N 135.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.0N 136.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.8N 136.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.6N 135.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.7N 134.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 19.5N 130.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 24.0N 128.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 135.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





000
WTPZ21 KNHC 200235
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0300 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 135.3W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 135.3W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 135.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.9N 135.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.0N 136.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.8N 136.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.6N 135.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.7N 134.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 19.5N 130.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 24.0N 128.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 135.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ31 KNHC 200235
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...KARINA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 135.3W
ABOUT 1325 MI...2135 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1720 MI...2770 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.3 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED...AND KARINA COULD BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



000
WTPZ21 KNHC 200235
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0300 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 135.3W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 135.3W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 135.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.9N 135.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.0N 136.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.8N 136.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.6N 135.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.7N 134.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 19.5N 130.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 24.0N 128.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 135.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ31 KNHC 200235
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...KARINA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 135.3W
ABOUT 1325 MI...2135 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1720 MI...2770 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.3 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED...AND KARINA COULD BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 200233
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0300 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 120.7W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 120.7W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 120.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.1N 121.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.6N 121.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.5N 122.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.5N 122.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 120SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.0N 125.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 26.0N 128.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 28.0N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 120.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN





000
WTPZ22 KNHC 200233
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0300 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 120.7W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 120.7W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 120.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.1N 121.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.6N 121.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.5N 122.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.5N 122.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 120SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.0N 125.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 26.0N 128.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 28.0N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 120.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 200233
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...LOWELL CONTINUING A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 120.7W
ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.7 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  A GENERAL
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 200233
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...LOWELL CONTINUING A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 120.7W
ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.7 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  A GENERAL
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 200005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 300 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1009 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 48W-55W. DRY
SAHARAN AIR AND DUST ARE PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION N OF 13N.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
IT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES AND MOVES INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 48 HOURS.
SEE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE WESTERN AFRICAN COAST EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WELL-DEFINED AXIS ALONG 18W. MOSTLY MEDIUM DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH ALONG UPPER-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 13N-17N E OF 20W. SAHARAN DRY AIR ENGULFS
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE...THUS DEVOIDING OF CONVECTION
THE REGION OF THE WAVE N OF 17N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 24N39W TO 12N39W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. NORTH OF 14N THE WAVE
IS BEING AFFECTED BY THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH IS
HINDERING CONVECTION IN THAT PORTION OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED WITHIN 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 39W-42W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 51W. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION OF
THE DISCUSSION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...GUATEMALA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N88W TO 8N92W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY INLAND WITH SOME OF
THE CONVECTION ENTERING THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH BEGINS WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 14N21W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 13N39W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 9N51W TO 8N61W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
24W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
SUPPORTING MAINLY 5 TO 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE 15 KT WINDS ARE
NOTED IN A SCATTEROMETER PASS AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE
INTO THE SW GULF LATER TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALREADY ENHANCING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHICH ARE BEGINNING
TO SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
WEST CENTRAL GULF FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 90W-93W. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE THROUGH WED MORNING AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
MOVE WESTWARD. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN
THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MAINLY 10 TO 25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BASED
ON A SCATTEROMETER PASS...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN BASIN S OF 15N. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE PATTERN ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUPPORT
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 15N W OF
77W...INCLUDING NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHICH ALONG A
PATCH OF LOW-LEVEL MODERATE MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG WITH ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL LOW ON THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ALONG WITH
MODERATE/HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI AND
ADJACENT WATERS. ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE BEING
INFLUENCED BY A DRY SAHARAN AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
DUST AND HAZE ARE BEING REPORTED BY SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY FRI MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG WITH
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW ON THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALOFT
ALONG WITH MODERATE/HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI
AND ADJACENT WATERS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN  PENINSULA IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AS
WELL AS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. OTHERWISE...BESIDES
THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED...THE REMAINDER BASIN IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING BEING ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB
HIGH NEAR 35N34W AND A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 26N66W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NAR/ASL


000
AXNT20 KNHC 200005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 300 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1009 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 48W-55W. DRY
SAHARAN AIR AND DUST ARE PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION N OF 13N.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
IT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES AND MOVES INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 48 HOURS.
SEE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE WESTERN AFRICAN COAST EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WELL-DEFINED AXIS ALONG 18W. MOSTLY MEDIUM DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH ALONG UPPER-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 13N-17N E OF 20W. SAHARAN DRY AIR ENGULFS
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE...THUS DEVOIDING OF CONVECTION
THE REGION OF THE WAVE N OF 17N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 24N39W TO 12N39W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. NORTH OF 14N THE WAVE
IS BEING AFFECTED BY THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH IS
HINDERING CONVECTION IN THAT PORTION OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED WITHIN 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 39W-42W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 51W. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION OF
THE DISCUSSION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...GUATEMALA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N88W TO 8N92W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY INLAND WITH SOME OF
THE CONVECTION ENTERING THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH BEGINS WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 14N21W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 13N39W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 9N51W TO 8N61W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
24W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
SUPPORTING MAINLY 5 TO 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE 15 KT WINDS ARE
NOTED IN A SCATTEROMETER PASS AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE
INTO THE SW GULF LATER TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALREADY ENHANCING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHICH ARE BEGINNING
TO SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
WEST CENTRAL GULF FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 90W-93W. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE THROUGH WED MORNING AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
MOVE WESTWARD. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN
THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MAINLY 10 TO 25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BASED
ON A SCATTEROMETER PASS...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN BASIN S OF 15N. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE PATTERN ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUPPORT
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 15N W OF
77W...INCLUDING NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHICH ALONG A
PATCH OF LOW-LEVEL MODERATE MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG WITH ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL LOW ON THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ALONG WITH
MODERATE/HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI AND
ADJACENT WATERS. ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE BEING
INFLUENCED BY A DRY SAHARAN AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
DUST AND HAZE ARE BEING REPORTED BY SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY FRI MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG WITH
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW ON THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALOFT
ALONG WITH MODERATE/HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI
AND ADJACENT WATERS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN  PENINSULA IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AS
WELL AS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. OTHERWISE...BESIDES
THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED...THE REMAINDER BASIN IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING BEING ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB
HIGH NEAR 35N34W AND A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 26N66W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NAR/ASL


000
AXNT20 KNHC 200005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 300 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1009 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 48W-55W. DRY
SAHARAN AIR AND DUST ARE PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION N OF 13N.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
IT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES AND MOVES INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 48 HOURS.
SEE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE WESTERN AFRICAN COAST EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WELL-DEFINED AXIS ALONG 18W. MOSTLY MEDIUM DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH ALONG UPPER-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 13N-17N E OF 20W. SAHARAN DRY AIR ENGULFS
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE...THUS DEVOIDING OF CONVECTION
THE REGION OF THE WAVE N OF 17N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 24N39W TO 12N39W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. NORTH OF 14N THE WAVE
IS BEING AFFECTED BY THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH IS
HINDERING CONVECTION IN THAT PORTION OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED WITHIN 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 39W-42W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 51W. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION OF
THE DISCUSSION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...GUATEMALA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N88W TO 8N92W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY INLAND WITH SOME OF
THE CONVECTION ENTERING THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH BEGINS WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 14N21W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 13N39W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 9N51W TO 8N61W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
24W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
SUPPORTING MAINLY 5 TO 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE 15 KT WINDS ARE
NOTED IN A SCATTEROMETER PASS AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE
INTO THE SW GULF LATER TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALREADY ENHANCING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHICH ARE BEGINNING
TO SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
WEST CENTRAL GULF FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 90W-93W. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE THROUGH WED MORNING AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
MOVE WESTWARD. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN
THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MAINLY 10 TO 25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BASED
ON A SCATTEROMETER PASS...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN BASIN S OF 15N. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE PATTERN ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUPPORT
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 15N W OF
77W...INCLUDING NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHICH ALONG A
PATCH OF LOW-LEVEL MODERATE MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG WITH ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL LOW ON THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ALONG WITH
MODERATE/HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI AND
ADJACENT WATERS. ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE BEING
INFLUENCED BY A DRY SAHARAN AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
DUST AND HAZE ARE BEING REPORTED BY SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY FRI MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG WITH
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW ON THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALOFT
ALONG WITH MODERATE/HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI
AND ADJACENT WATERS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN  PENINSULA IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AS
WELL AS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. OTHERWISE...BESIDES
THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED...THE REMAINDER BASIN IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING BEING ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB
HIGH NEAR 35N34W AND A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 26N66W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NAR/ASL


000
AXNT20 KNHC 200005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 300 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1009 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 48W-55W. DRY
SAHARAN AIR AND DUST ARE PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION N OF 13N.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
IT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES AND MOVES INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 48 HOURS.
SEE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE WESTERN AFRICAN COAST EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WELL-DEFINED AXIS ALONG 18W. MOSTLY MEDIUM DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH ALONG UPPER-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 13N-17N E OF 20W. SAHARAN DRY AIR ENGULFS
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE...THUS DEVOIDING OF CONVECTION
THE REGION OF THE WAVE N OF 17N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 24N39W TO 12N39W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. NORTH OF 14N THE WAVE
IS BEING AFFECTED BY THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH IS
HINDERING CONVECTION IN THAT PORTION OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED WITHIN 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 39W-42W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 51W. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION OF
THE DISCUSSION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...GUATEMALA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N88W TO 8N92W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY INLAND WITH SOME OF
THE CONVECTION ENTERING THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH BEGINS WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 14N21W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 13N39W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 9N51W TO 8N61W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
24W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
SUPPORTING MAINLY 5 TO 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE 15 KT WINDS ARE
NOTED IN A SCATTEROMETER PASS AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE
INTO THE SW GULF LATER TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALREADY ENHANCING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHICH ARE BEGINNING
TO SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
WEST CENTRAL GULF FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 90W-93W. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE THROUGH WED MORNING AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
MOVE WESTWARD. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN
THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MAINLY 10 TO 25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BASED
ON A SCATTEROMETER PASS...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN BASIN S OF 15N. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE PATTERN ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUPPORT
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 15N W OF
77W...INCLUDING NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHICH ALONG A
PATCH OF LOW-LEVEL MODERATE MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG WITH ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL LOW ON THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ALONG WITH
MODERATE/HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI AND
ADJACENT WATERS. ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE BEING
INFLUENCED BY A DRY SAHARAN AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
DUST AND HAZE ARE BEING REPORTED BY SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY FRI MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG WITH
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW ON THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALOFT
ALONG WITH MODERATE/HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI
AND ADJACENT WATERS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN  PENINSULA IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AS
WELL AS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. OTHERWISE...BESIDES
THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED...THE REMAINDER BASIN IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING BEING ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB
HIGH NEAR 35N34W AND A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 26N66W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NAR/ASL


000
ACPN50 PHFO 200003
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST TUE AUG 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU IS
NEARLY STATIONARY. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THERE HAS BEEN NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.


$$

TANABE





000
ACPN50 PHFO 200003
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST TUE AUG 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU IS
NEARLY STATIONARY. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THERE HAS BEEN NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.


$$

TANABE






000
ACCA62 TJSJ 192345
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT MARTES 19 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CONTINUA EN
ASOCIACION CON UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION QUE SE EXTIENDE
DESDE LA COSTA NORESTE DE AMERICA DEL SUR HACIA EL ATLANTICO
TROPICAL CENTRAL. SE PRONOSTICA QUE LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES
ESTEN MAS CONDUCNETES PARA DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA
DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS A MEDIDA QUE SE ACERQUE A LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES Y SE MUEVA HACIA EL MAR CARIBE.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...30
POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.

UNA ONDA TROPICAL LOCALIZADA A MITAD DE CAMINO ENTRE LA COSTA OESTE
DE AFRICA Y LAS ANTILLAS MENORES ESTA PRODUCIENDO ACTIVIDAD DE
AGUACEROS DESORGANIZADOS Y LIMITADOS. ALGO DE DESARROLLO LENTO DE
ESTE SISTEMA ES POSIBLE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE
HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 192345
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT MARTES 19 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CONTINUA EN
ASOCIACION CON UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION QUE SE EXTIENDE
DESDE LA COSTA NORESTE DE AMERICA DEL SUR HACIA EL ATLANTICO
TROPICAL CENTRAL. SE PRONOSTICA QUE LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES
ESTEN MAS CONDUCNETES PARA DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA
DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS A MEDIDA QUE SE ACERQUE A LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES Y SE MUEVA HACIA EL MAR CARIBE.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...30
POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.

UNA ONDA TROPICAL LOCALIZADA A MITAD DE CAMINO ENTRE LA COSTA OESTE
DE AFRICA Y LAS ANTILLAS MENORES ESTA PRODUCIENDO ACTIVIDAD DE
AGUACEROS DESORGANIZADOS Y LIMITADOS. ALGO DE DESARROLLO LENTO DE
ESTE SISTEMA ES POSIBLE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE
HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 192345
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT MARTES 19 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CONTINUA EN
ASOCIACION CON UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION QUE SE EXTIENDE
DESDE LA COSTA NORESTE DE AMERICA DEL SUR HACIA EL ATLANTICO
TROPICAL CENTRAL. SE PRONOSTICA QUE LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES
ESTEN MAS CONDUCNETES PARA DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA
DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS A MEDIDA QUE SE ACERQUE A LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES Y SE MUEVA HACIA EL MAR CARIBE.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...30
POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.

UNA ONDA TROPICAL LOCALIZADA A MITAD DE CAMINO ENTRE LA COSTA OESTE
DE AFRICA Y LAS ANTILLAS MENORES ESTA PRODUCIENDO ACTIVIDAD DE
AGUACEROS DESORGANIZADOS Y LIMITADOS. ALGO DE DESARROLLO LENTO DE
ESTE SISTEMA ES POSIBLE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE
HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 192345
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT MARTES 19 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CONTINUA EN
ASOCIACION CON UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION QUE SE EXTIENDE
DESDE LA COSTA NORESTE DE AMERICA DEL SUR HACIA EL ATLANTICO
TROPICAL CENTRAL. SE PRONOSTICA QUE LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES
ESTEN MAS CONDUCNETES PARA DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA
DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS A MEDIDA QUE SE ACERQUE A LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES Y SE MUEVA HACIA EL MAR CARIBE.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...30
POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.

UNA ONDA TROPICAL LOCALIZADA A MITAD DE CAMINO ENTRE LA COSTA OESTE
DE AFRICA Y LAS ANTILLAS MENORES ESTA PRODUCIENDO ACTIVIDAD DE
AGUACEROS DESORGANIZADOS Y LIMITADOS. ALGO DE DESARROLLO LENTO DE
ESTE SISTEMA ES POSIBLE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE
HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192345
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located a little
more than 700 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

Satellite data along with ship and buoy observations indicate that
a broad low pressure system has developed several hundred miles
south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Shower and thunderstorm
activity is currently disorganized, but environmental conditions are
expected to be favorable for this system to develop into a tropical
depression by the end of this week while it moves toward the
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192345
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located a little
more than 700 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

Satellite data along with ship and buoy observations indicate that
a broad low pressure system has developed several hundred miles
south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Shower and thunderstorm
activity is currently disorganized, but environmental conditions are
expected to be favorable for this system to develop into a tropical
depression by the end of this week while it moves toward the
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABNT20 KNHC 192334
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with an elongated area of low pressure that extends from
the northeastern coast of South America into the central tropical
Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive
for gradual development of this system during the next few days as
it approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing limited and disorganized
shower activity. Some slow development of this system is possible
over the next several days while it moves toward the west-northwest
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABNT20 KNHC 192334
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with an elongated area of low pressure that extends from
the northeastern coast of South America into the central tropical
Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive
for gradual development of this system during the next few days as
it approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing limited and disorganized
shower activity. Some slow development of this system is possible
over the next several days while it moves toward the west-northwest
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABNT20 KNHC 192334
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with an elongated area of low pressure that extends from
the northeastern coast of South America into the central tropical
Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive
for gradual development of this system during the next few days as
it approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing limited and disorganized
shower activity. Some slow development of this system is possible
over the next several days while it moves toward the west-northwest
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABNT20 KNHC 192334
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with an elongated area of low pressure that extends from
the northeastern coast of South America into the central tropical
Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive
for gradual development of this system during the next few days as
it approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing limited and disorganized
shower activity. Some slow development of this system is possible
over the next several days while it moves toward the west-northwest
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192141
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 134.8W...OR 1365 NM E
OF HILO HAWAII AT 19/2100 UTC MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 4 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER...EXCEPT 60 NM IN THE
SW QUADRANT. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...AND KARINA COULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BY WED
NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR NEAR 18.4N 120.3W...OR 643 NM WSW OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 19/2100 UTC MOVING NW OR
310 DEG AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM IN THE
SE SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM IN THE W QUADRANT. A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WED...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NNW WED NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N91W TO 08N91W CONTINUING
NORTHWARD TO ACROSS GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVING
W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
S OF 13N WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH MOISTURE-RICH SW
FLOW INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH. LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N91W TO
11N113W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 81W AND 87W...WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W
AND 103W...AND FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 104W AND 110W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 111W AND 117W
AND FROM 07N TO 11N W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

1026 MB HIGH PRES IS NW OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 41N143W
EXTENDING A RIDGE SE THROUGH 32N131W TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE WINDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCES OF
KARINA AND LOWELL.

E OF 110W...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA AND
W OF COLOMBIA IN THE NE PACIFIC IS HELPING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IN THE GULF OF PANAMA N OF 07N.

A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING THEN WILL EXPAND
AND PROPAGATE WESTWARD COMBINING WITH THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. LOW PRES IS THEN FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE BY LATE
WED NIGHT MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THU.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
WTPZ21 KNHC 192036
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
2100 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 134.8W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 134.8W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 134.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.7N 135.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.7N 136.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.8N 136.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.8N 136.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.5N 135.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 18.5N 132.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 23.5N 129.5W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 134.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 192036
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
2100 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 134.8W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 134.8W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 134.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.7N 135.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.7N 136.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.8N 136.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.8N 136.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.5N 135.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 18.5N 132.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 23.5N 129.5W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 134.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





000
WTPZ31 KNHC 192036
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...KARINA MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 134.8W
ABOUT 1365 MI...2195 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.8 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED...AND KARINA COULD BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ31 KNHC 192036
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...KARINA MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 134.8W
ABOUT 1365 MI...2195 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.8 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED...AND KARINA COULD BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 192033
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...LOWELL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 120.3W
ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.3 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 192032
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
2100 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 120.3W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 120.3W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 120.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.8N 120.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.3N 121.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.0N 121.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.0N 122.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 120SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.5N 125.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 25.5N 128.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 27.5N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 120.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
ACPN50 PHFO 191802 CCA
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST TUE AUG 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 775 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO
IS MOVING WEST SLOWLY. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THERE HAS BEEN NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU IS
NEARLY STATIONARY. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THERE HAS BEEN NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.


$$

TANABE





000
ACPN50 PHFO 191802 CCA
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST TUE AUG 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 775 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO
IS MOVING WEST SLOWLY. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THERE HAS BEEN NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU IS
NEARLY STATIONARY. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THERE HAS BEEN NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.


$$

TANABE






000
ACPN50 PHFO 191800
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST TUE AUG 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 775 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO
IS MOVING WEST SLOWLY. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE PULSE IN THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU IS
NEARLY STATIONARY. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THERE HAS BEEN NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.


$$

TANABE





000
ACPN50 PHFO 191800
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST TUE AUG 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 775 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO
IS MOVING WEST SLOWLY. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE PULSE IN THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU IS
NEARLY STATIONARY. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THERE HAS BEEN NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.


$$

TANABE





000
ACPN50 PHFO 191800
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST TUE AUG 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 775 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO
IS MOVING WEST SLOWLY. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE PULSE IN THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU IS
NEARLY STATIONARY. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THERE HAS BEEN NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.


$$

TANABE





000
ACPN50 PHFO 191800
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST TUE AUG 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 775 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO
IS MOVING WEST SLOWLY. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE PULSE IN THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU IS
NEARLY STATIONARY. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THERE HAS BEEN NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.


$$

TANABE





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 191752
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT MARTES 19 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CONTINUA EN
ASOCIACION CON UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION QUE SE EXTIENDE
DESDE LA COSTA NORESTE DE AMERICA DEL SUR HACIA EL ATLANTICO
TROPICAL CENTRAL. SE PRONOSTICA QUE LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES
ESTEN MAS CONDUCNETES PARA DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA
DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS A MEDIDA QUE SE ACERQUE A LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES Y SE MUEVA HACIA EL MAR CARIBE.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...30
POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...40 POR
CIENTO.

UNA ONDA TROPICAL LOCALIZADA ENTRE LA COSTA OESTE DE AFRICA Y LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES ESTA PRODUCIENDO AGUACEROS DESORGANIZADOS Y
TRONADAS. SE ESPERA DESARROLLO LENTO DE ESTE SISTEMA DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE
10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN




000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191743
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located a little
more than 700 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated
with a tropical wave. A low pressure system is expected to form
well south of the coast of Mexico during the next day or two, and
environmental conditions are conducive for the low to become a
tropical depression by the weekend while it moves toward the
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191743
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located a little
more than 700 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated
with a tropical wave. A low pressure system is expected to form
well south of the coast of Mexico during the next day or two, and
environmental conditions are conducive for the low to become a
tropical depression by the weekend while it moves toward the
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila




000
ABNT20 KNHC 191742
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with an elongated area of low pressure that extends from
the northeastern coast of South America into the central tropical
Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive
for gradual development of this system during the next few days as
it approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing some disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity. Some slow development of this system is
possible over the next several days while it moves toward the
west-northwest at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan




000
ABNT20 KNHC 191742
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with an elongated area of low pressure that extends from
the northeastern coast of South America into the central tropical
Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive
for gradual development of this system during the next few days as
it approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing some disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity. Some slow development of this system is
possible over the next several days while it moves toward the
west-northwest at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan




000
ABNT20 KNHC 191742
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with an elongated area of low pressure that extends from
the northeastern coast of South America into the central tropical
Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive
for gradual development of this system during the next few days as
it approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing some disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity. Some slow development of this system is
possible over the next several days while it moves toward the
west-northwest at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan




000
ABNT20 KNHC 191742
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with an elongated area of low pressure that extends from
the northeastern coast of South America into the central tropical
Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive
for gradual development of this system during the next few days as
it approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing some disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity. Some slow development of this system is
possible over the next several days while it moves toward the
west-northwest at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan




000
AXNT20 KNHC 191732
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 22N43W TO 13N40W MOVING W AT
20-25 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND
SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 38W-46W.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 21N55W TO 10N52W MOVING W AT
20-25 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE
TO BE S OF 14N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-13N
BETWEEN 46W-56W.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT
22N88W TO THE E PACIFIC AT 8N90W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SUBTLE 700
MB TROUGHING ACCOMPANIES THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS.
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS MOSTLY OVER THE E PACIFIC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 21N16W TO
15N20W TO 12N40W TO 10N50W TO 9N54W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 16W-19W ...AND FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 23W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NOT PRODUCING CONVECTION THERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
HOWEVER OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 84W.  SURFACE RIDGING
IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 27N. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS ARE MAINLY ONLY 10 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AT 23N98W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 89W-
93W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF W OF 92W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
PRESENTLY OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-14N BETWEEN 76W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AT 18N81W. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N60W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN N OF 14N. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL. TRADES ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG WITH THE USUAL POSSIBILITY OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY.  ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO
BE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N65W WITH SURFACE RIDGING
EXTENDING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
BAHAMAS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 75W-80W. ANOTHER 1023 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N34W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 70W-79W. A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N60W ENHANCING SHOWERS N OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N41W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BE N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND OVER THE
BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 191732
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 22N43W TO 13N40W MOVING W AT
20-25 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND
SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 38W-46W.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 21N55W TO 10N52W MOVING W AT
20-25 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE
TO BE S OF 14N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-13N
BETWEEN 46W-56W.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT
22N88W TO THE E PACIFIC AT 8N90W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SUBTLE 700
MB TROUGHING ACCOMPANIES THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS.
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS MOSTLY OVER THE E PACIFIC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 21N16W TO
15N20W TO 12N40W TO 10N50W TO 9N54W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 16W-19W ...AND FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 23W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NOT PRODUCING CONVECTION THERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
HOWEVER OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 84W.  SURFACE RIDGING
IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 27N. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS ARE MAINLY ONLY 10 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AT 23N98W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 89W-
93W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF W OF 92W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
PRESENTLY OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-14N BETWEEN 76W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AT 18N81W. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N60W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN N OF 14N. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL. TRADES ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG WITH THE USUAL POSSIBILITY OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY.  ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO
BE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N65W WITH SURFACE RIDGING
EXTENDING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
BAHAMAS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 75W-80W. ANOTHER 1023 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N34W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 70W-79W. A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N60W ENHANCING SHOWERS N OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N41W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BE N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND OVER THE
BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191500
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 134.4W AT 19/1500 UTC
MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF
CENTER ALL QUADRANTS. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SOME SMALL
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WITH KARINA BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR NEAR 17.7N 119.7W AT 19/1500 UTC
MOVING W-NW OR 300 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO
55 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM
17N118W TO 16N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 117W-122W. A TURN TOWARD THE NW IS EXPECTED
TO TODAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE N-NW AND A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 90W FROM OVER MEXICO TO 8N MOVING W
20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 08N84W TO 11N90W TO 10N92W. THE WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH MOISTURE-RICH
SW FLOW INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N78W ALONG 6N84W 7N95W 8N103W TO
12N111W BECOMING DISRUPTED BY THE TROPICAL STORM ACTIVITY TO THE
W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM N AND
180 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W-100W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 3N78W TO 6N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 107W-116W.

...DISCUSSION...

WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 32N138W TO NEAR 27N118W.
THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS
FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W...S OF OF KARINA AND LOWELL.

AN INVERTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION N OF 12N TO COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 93W-96W.

A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO WED MORNING THEN EXPANDING W WHERE IT WILL
COMBINE WITH A LOW FORECASTED TO DEVELOP NEAR 10N95W. THE  GAP
WINDS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REACH 30 KT LATER THU MORNING.

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191500
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 134.4W AT 19/1500 UTC
MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF
CENTER ALL QUADRANTS. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SOME SMALL
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WITH KARINA BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR NEAR 17.7N 119.7W AT 19/1500 UTC
MOVING W-NW OR 300 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO
55 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM
17N118W TO 16N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 117W-122W. A TURN TOWARD THE NW IS EXPECTED
TO TODAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE N-NW AND A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 90W FROM OVER MEXICO TO 8N MOVING W
20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 08N84W TO 11N90W TO 10N92W. THE WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH MOISTURE-RICH
SW FLOW INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N78W ALONG 6N84W 7N95W 8N103W TO
12N111W BECOMING DISRUPTED BY THE TROPICAL STORM ACTIVITY TO THE
W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM N AND
180 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W-100W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 3N78W TO 6N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 107W-116W.

...DISCUSSION...

WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 32N138W TO NEAR 27N118W.
THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS
FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W...S OF OF KARINA AND LOWELL.

AN INVERTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION N OF 12N TO COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 93W-96W.

A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO WED MORNING THEN EXPANDING W WHERE IT WILL
COMBINE WITH A LOW FORECASTED TO DEVELOP NEAR 10N95W. THE  GAP
WINDS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REACH 30 KT LATER THU MORNING.

$$
PAW



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 191433
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
1500 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 119.7W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..225NE 210SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 119.7W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 119.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.2N 120.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 130SE  90SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.8N 121.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.4N 121.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 170SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.1N 121.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 180SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 124.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE  60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 25.0N 127.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 26.5N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 119.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 191433
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
1500 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 119.7W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..225NE 210SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 119.7W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 119.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.2N 120.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 130SE  90SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.8N 121.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.4N 121.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 170SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.1N 121.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 180SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 124.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE  60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 25.0N 127.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 26.5N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 119.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 191433
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
1500 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 119.7W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..225NE 210SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 119.7W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 119.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.2N 120.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 130SE  90SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.8N 121.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.4N 121.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 170SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.1N 121.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 180SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 124.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE  60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 25.0N 127.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 26.5N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 119.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 191433
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
1500 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 119.7W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..225NE 210SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 119.7W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 119.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.2N 120.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 130SE  90SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.8N 121.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.4N 121.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 170SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.1N 121.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 180SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 124.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE  60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 25.0N 127.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 26.5N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 119.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 191433
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...LOWELL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 119.7W
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.7 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 191433
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...LOWELL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 119.7W
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.7 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 191433
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...LOWELL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 119.7W
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.7 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 191433
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...LOWELL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 119.7W
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.7 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 191431
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
1500 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 134.4W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE  60SE  60SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 134.4W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 134.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.7N 135.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.8N 135.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.0N 136.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.0N 136.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.0N 136.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 17.7N 132.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 21.0N 129.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 134.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 191431
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
1500 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 134.4W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE  60SE  60SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 134.4W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 134.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.7N 135.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.8N 135.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.0N 136.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.0N 136.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.0N 136.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 17.7N 132.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 21.0N 129.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 134.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





000
WTPZ31 KNHC 191431
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...KARINA FORECAST TO LAST A FEW MORE DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 134.4W
ABOUT 1390 MI...2235 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.4 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED...AND KARINA COULD BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 191431
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...KARINA FORECAST TO LAST A FEW MORE DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 134.4W
ABOUT 1390 MI...2235 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.4 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED...AND KARINA COULD BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 191431
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...KARINA FORECAST TO LAST A FEW MORE DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 134.4W
ABOUT 1390 MI...2235 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.4 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED...AND KARINA COULD BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 191431
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...KARINA FORECAST TO LAST A FEW MORE DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 134.4W
ABOUT 1390 MI...2235 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.4 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED...AND KARINA COULD BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 191155
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT MARTES 19 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA COMO A 1000 MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES ESTA PRODUCIENDO ACTIVIDAD DESORGANIZADA DE
AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS. ALGUN DESARROLLO LENTO DE ESTE SISTEMA ES
POSIBLE MAS TARDE ESTA SEMANA A MEDIDA QUE SE ACERQUE A LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES Y SE MUEVA HACIA EL MAR CARIBE.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10
POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR
CIENTO.

UNA ONDA TROPICAL LOCALIZADA ENTRE LA COSTA OESTE DE AFRICA Y LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES ESTA PRODUCIENDO AGUACEROS DESORGANIZADOS Y
TRONADAS. SE ESPERA DESARROLLO LENTO DE ESTE SISTEMA DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE
10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN




000
ABNT20 KNHC 191147
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Some slow development of this system is possible later
this week as it approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
over the next several days while it moves toward the west-northwest
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABNT20 KNHC 191147
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Some slow development of this system is possible later
this week as it approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
over the next several days while it moves toward the west-northwest
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191137
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located about 700
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms located
over the far eastern Pacific is associated with a tropical wave.
A low pressure system is expected to form south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec during the next day or two, and environmental conditions
are conducive for the low to become a tropical depression by the
weekend while it moves west-northwestward off the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191137
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located about 700
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms located
over the far eastern Pacific is associated with a tropical wave.
A low pressure system is expected to form south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec during the next day or two, and environmental conditions
are conducive for the low to become a tropical depression by the
weekend while it moves west-northwestward off the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
ACPN50 PHFO 191136
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST TUE AUG 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 800 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO
MOVED WEST SLOWLY. PULSING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AROUND THIS LOW
SHOWED INCREASED ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS...ESPECIALLY
WHERE IT INTERACTED WITH THE CIRCULATION AROUND TROPICAL STORM
KARINA. SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA IN QUESTION WILL
TEND TO SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...HOWEVER.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU MOVED
WEST SLOWLY. THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED NEAR THIS LOW. SIGNIFICANT
EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA IN QUESTION WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

$$

RYSHKO





000
ACPN50 PHFO 191136
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST TUE AUG 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 800 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO
MOVED WEST SLOWLY. PULSING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AROUND THIS LOW
SHOWED INCREASED ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS...ESPECIALLY
WHERE IT INTERACTED WITH THE CIRCULATION AROUND TROPICAL STORM
KARINA. SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA IN QUESTION WILL
TEND TO SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...HOWEVER.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU MOVED
WEST SLOWLY. THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED NEAR THIS LOW. SIGNIFICANT
EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA IN QUESTION WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

$$

RYSHKO




000
AXNT20 KNHC 191051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 13N37W TO 22N42W MOVING W AT
20-25 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND A
MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS NEAR 15N40W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N51W TO 21N55W MOVING W AT
20-25 KT. 700 MB TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS BECOME
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN GLOBAL MODEL DATA...HOWEVER SUBTLE
INDICATION IS THAT THE AXIS HAS CROSSED 50W DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS. 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY IS ALSO FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY
OF 14N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN
51W-54W...AND FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 57W-59W.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N88W TO 22N85W MOVING W AT
25 KT. SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A 850 MB
RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR
16N88W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-16N
BETWEEN 88W-94W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 84W-
86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 21N16W TO
15N20W TO 12N45W TO 09N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 22W-36W...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 33W-
51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N97W THAT INFLUENCES MUCH
OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W. WHILE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS
ALONG 28N ACROSS THE BASIN...AMPLE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 20N-23N
BETWEEN 90W-97W. ELSEWHERE...THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE SW NORTH ATLC IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FAR NW GULF
WATERS. ONE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF IS A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS S
OF 21N BETWEEN 84W-86W. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ANCHORED ALONG 28N THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD AND REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W IS BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION TO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 08N-15N BETWEEN
76W-93W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN EAST OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE REGION AND ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE PERSISTING GENERALLY S OF 18N
BETWEEN 65W-77W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL. VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE AND OVERALL DRYING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE
HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TRADES ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST ALONG WITH THE USUAL POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC NEAR 27N79W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SURFACE RIDGING
ALONG 28N. TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...UPPER LEVEL
NW FLOW PREVAILS N OF 27N W OF 65W PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR SKIES
FOR TODAY. LINGERING MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
HOWEVER OCCURRING S OF 26N W OF 79W DUE TO MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND BAHAMAS. THERE IS ALSO
DIFFLUENCE NORTH OF 28N E OF 79W...WHICH IS HELPING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 26N64W AND FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY.
FARTHER EAST...THE SURFACE RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N44W SW TO
28N45W. TO THE EAST...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 31N29W AND EXTENDS NE TO 38N19W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF BOTH BOUNDARIES.
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC
STEMMING FROM A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN/RIVERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 191051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 13N37W TO 22N42W MOVING W AT
20-25 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND A
MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS NEAR 15N40W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N51W TO 21N55W MOVING W AT
20-25 KT. 700 MB TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS BECOME
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN GLOBAL MODEL DATA...HOWEVER SUBTLE
INDICATION IS THAT THE AXIS HAS CROSSED 50W DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS. 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY IS ALSO FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY
OF 14N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN
51W-54W...AND FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 57W-59W.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N88W TO 22N85W MOVING W AT
25 KT. SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A 850 MB
RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR
16N88W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-16N
BETWEEN 88W-94W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 84W-
86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 21N16W TO
15N20W TO 12N45W TO 09N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 22W-36W...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 33W-
51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N97W THAT INFLUENCES MUCH
OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W. WHILE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS
ALONG 28N ACROSS THE BASIN...AMPLE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 20N-23N
BETWEEN 90W-97W. ELSEWHERE...THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE SW NORTH ATLC IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FAR NW GULF
WATERS. ONE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF IS A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS S
OF 21N BETWEEN 84W-86W. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ANCHORED ALONG 28N THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD AND REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W IS BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION TO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 08N-15N BETWEEN
76W-93W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN EAST OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE REGION AND ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE PERSISTING GENERALLY S OF 18N
BETWEEN 65W-77W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL. VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE AND OVERALL DRYING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE
HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TRADES ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST ALONG WITH THE USUAL POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC NEAR 27N79W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SURFACE RIDGING
ALONG 28N. TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...UPPER LEVEL
NW FLOW PREVAILS N OF 27N W OF 65W PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR SKIES
FOR TODAY. LINGERING MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
HOWEVER OCCURRING S OF 26N W OF 79W DUE TO MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND BAHAMAS. THERE IS ALSO
DIFFLUENCE NORTH OF 28N E OF 79W...WHICH IS HELPING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 26N64W AND FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY.
FARTHER EAST...THE SURFACE RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N44W SW TO
28N45W. TO THE EAST...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 31N29W AND EXTENDS NE TO 38N19W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF BOTH BOUNDARIES.
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC
STEMMING FROM A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN/RIVERA



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 191001
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT MARTES 19 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADA CON UN AREA DEBIL Y ALARGADA DE
BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A 1000 MILLAS APROXIMADAMENTE AL ESTE DE LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES ESTA LIMITADA. AUNQUE EL DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA
NO SE ESPERA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS...ALGUN DESARROLLO LENTO ES
POSIBLE PARA FINALES DE LA SEMANA MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE APROXIMA A
LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y SE MUEVE HACIA EL MAR CARIBE.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0
POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR
CIENTO.

UNA ONDA TROPICAL LOCALIZADA ENTRE MEDIO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE AFRICA
Y LAS ANTILLAS MENORES ESTA PRODUCIENDO AGUACEROS DESORGANIZADOS Y
TRONADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CUALQUIER DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA SERA
LENTO EN OCURRIR DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA
EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR CANGIALOSI





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 191001
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT MARTES 19 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADA CON UN AREA DEBIL Y ALARGADA DE
BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A 1000 MILLAS APROXIMADAMENTE AL ESTE DE LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES ESTA LIMITADA. AUNQUE EL DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA
NO SE ESPERA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS...ALGUN DESARROLLO LENTO ES
POSIBLE PARA FINALES DE LA SEMANA MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE APROXIMA A
LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y SE MUEVE HACIA EL MAR CARIBE.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0
POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR
CIENTO.

UNA ONDA TROPICAL LOCALIZADA ENTRE MEDIO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE AFRICA
Y LAS ANTILLAS MENORES ESTA PRODUCIENDO AGUACEROS DESORGANIZADOS Y
TRONADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CUALQUIER DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA SERA
LENTO EN OCURRIR DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA
EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR CANGIALOSI





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 191001
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT MARTES 19 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADA CON UN AREA DEBIL Y ALARGADA DE
BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A 1000 MILLAS APROXIMADAMENTE AL ESTE DE LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES ESTA LIMITADA. AUNQUE EL DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA
NO SE ESPERA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS...ALGUN DESARROLLO LENTO ES
POSIBLE PARA FINALES DE LA SEMANA MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE APROXIMA A
LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y SE MUEVE HACIA EL MAR CARIBE.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0
POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR
CIENTO.

UNA ONDA TROPICAL LOCALIZADA ENTRE MEDIO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE AFRICA
Y LAS ANTILLAS MENORES ESTA PRODUCIENDO AGUACEROS DESORGANIZADOS Y
TRONADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CUALQUIER DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA SERA
LENTO EN OCURRIR DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA
EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR CANGIALOSI





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 191001
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT MARTES 19 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADA CON UN AREA DEBIL Y ALARGADA DE
BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A 1000 MILLAS APROXIMADAMENTE AL ESTE DE LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES ESTA LIMITADA. AUNQUE EL DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA
NO SE ESPERA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS...ALGUN DESARROLLO LENTO ES
POSIBLE PARA FINALES DE LA SEMANA MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE APROXIMA A
LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y SE MUEVE HACIA EL MAR CARIBE.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0
POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR
CIENTO.

UNA ONDA TROPICAL LOCALIZADA ENTRE MEDIO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE AFRICA
Y LAS ANTILLAS MENORES ESTA PRODUCIENDO AGUACEROS DESORGANIZADOS Y
TRONADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CUALQUIER DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA SERA
LENTO EN OCURRIR DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA
EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR CANGIALOSI





000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190925
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 134.0W AT 19/0900 UTC
MOVING WSW OR 255 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO
65 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM W OF
CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS DURING WHICH IT WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR NEAR 17.3N 119.0W AT 19/0900 UTC
MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO
55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM SW
OF CENTER. LOWELL IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND MOVE NW...EVENTUALLY TURNING MORE NORTHWARD LATER IN
THE WEEK. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 88W. THE
INTERACTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH SOUTH OF
PANAMA IS ENHANCING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87W AND 98W. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WESTWARD AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH MOISTURE-RICH SW FLOW INTO THE
MONSOON TROUGH. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A LOW IS
LIKELY TO FORM ALONG THE WAVE WED NEAR 10N95W...WITH TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBLE AFTERWARD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 07N107W TO
11N113W THEN RESUMES FROM 14N119W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN
87W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
08N TO 12N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W.

...DISCUSSION...

WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW OF THE AREA NEAR 41N143W
TO NEAR 26N121W. THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADE WINDS ACROSS FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W...OUTSIDE OF KARINA
AND LOWELL.

A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL CONTINUE PULSING
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NEAR EL SALVADOR. COMBINED EFFECT OF LOW
DEVELOPMENT NEAR 10N95W AND GAP WINDS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REACH
30 KT THU MORNING.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190925
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 134.0W AT 19/0900 UTC
MOVING WSW OR 255 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO
65 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM W OF
CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS DURING WHICH IT WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR NEAR 17.3N 119.0W AT 19/0900 UTC
MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO
55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM SW
OF CENTER. LOWELL IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND MOVE NW...EVENTUALLY TURNING MORE NORTHWARD LATER IN
THE WEEK. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 88W. THE
INTERACTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH SOUTH OF
PANAMA IS ENHANCING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87W AND 98W. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WESTWARD AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH MOISTURE-RICH SW FLOW INTO THE
MONSOON TROUGH. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A LOW IS
LIKELY TO FORM ALONG THE WAVE WED NEAR 10N95W...WITH TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBLE AFTERWARD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 07N107W TO
11N113W THEN RESUMES FROM 14N119W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN
87W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
08N TO 12N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W.

...DISCUSSION...

WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW OF THE AREA NEAR 41N143W
TO NEAR 26N121W. THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADE WINDS ACROSS FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W...OUTSIDE OF KARINA
AND LOWELL.

A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL CONTINUE PULSING
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NEAR EL SALVADOR. COMBINED EFFECT OF LOW
DEVELOPMENT NEAR 10N95W AND GAP WINDS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REACH
30 KT THU MORNING.

$$
MUNDELL


000
WTPZ21 KNHC 190832
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0900 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 134.0W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE   0SE  60SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 134.0W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 133.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.7N 134.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.7N 135.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.7N 136.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.6N 136.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.0N 135.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 17.0N 133.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 19.0N 130.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 134.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG





000
WTPZ21 KNHC 190832
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0900 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 134.0W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE   0SE  60SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 134.0W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 133.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.7N 134.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.7N 135.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.7N 136.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.6N 136.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.0N 135.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 17.0N 133.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 19.0N 130.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 134.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG





000
WTPZ31 KNHC 190832
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...KARINA WAVERING IN INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 134.0W
ABOUT 1415 MI...2275 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.0 WEST.  KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  KARINA IS
FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN SOON...AND IT COULD BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
WTPZ31 KNHC 190832
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...KARINA WAVERING IN INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 134.0W
ABOUT 1415 MI...2275 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.0 WEST.  KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  KARINA IS
FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN SOON...AND IT COULD BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 190832
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0900 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 134.0W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE   0SE  60SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 134.0W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 133.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.7N 134.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.7N 135.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.7N 136.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.6N 136.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.0N 135.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 17.0N 133.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 19.0N 130.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 134.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG





000
WTPZ21 KNHC 190832
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0900 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 134.0W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE   0SE  60SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 134.0W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 133.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.7N 134.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.7N 135.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.7N 136.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.6N 136.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.0N 135.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 17.0N 133.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 19.0N 130.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 134.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG





000
WTPZ31 KNHC 190832
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...KARINA WAVERING IN INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 134.0W
ABOUT 1415 MI...2275 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.0 WEST.  KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  KARINA IS
FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN SOON...AND IT COULD BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
WTPZ31 KNHC 190832
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...KARINA WAVERING IN INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 134.0W
ABOUT 1415 MI...2275 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.0 WEST.  KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  KARINA IS
FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN SOON...AND IT COULD BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 190832
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0900 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 134.0W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE   0SE  60SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 134.0W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 133.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.7N 134.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.7N 135.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.7N 136.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.6N 136.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.0N 135.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 17.0N 133.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 19.0N 130.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 134.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG





000
WTPZ21 KNHC 190832
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0900 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 134.0W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE   0SE  60SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 134.0W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 133.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.7N 134.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.7N 135.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.7N 136.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.6N 136.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.0N 135.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 17.0N 133.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 19.0N 130.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 134.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG





000
WTPZ31 KNHC 190832
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...KARINA WAVERING IN INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 134.0W
ABOUT 1415 MI...2275 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.0 WEST.  KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  KARINA IS
FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN SOON...AND IT COULD BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
WTPZ31 KNHC 190832
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...KARINA WAVERING IN INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 134.0W
ABOUT 1415 MI...2275 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.0 WEST.  KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  KARINA IS
FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN SOON...AND IT COULD BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 190832
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0900 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 134.0W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE   0SE  60SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 134.0W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 133.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.7N 134.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.7N 135.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.7N 136.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.6N 136.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.0N 135.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 17.0N 133.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 19.0N 130.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 134.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG





000
WTPZ21 KNHC 190832
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0900 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 134.0W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE   0SE  60SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 134.0W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 133.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.7N 134.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.7N 135.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.7N 136.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.6N 136.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.0N 135.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 17.0N 133.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 19.0N 130.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 134.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG





000
WTPZ31 KNHC 190832
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...KARINA WAVERING IN INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 134.0W
ABOUT 1415 MI...2275 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.0 WEST.  KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  KARINA IS
FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN SOON...AND IT COULD BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
WTPZ31 KNHC 190832
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...KARINA WAVERING IN INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 134.0W
ABOUT 1415 MI...2275 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.0 WEST.  KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  KARINA IS
FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN SOON...AND IT COULD BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 190832
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0900 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 119.0W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 200SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 119.0W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 118.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.7N 119.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 130SE  90SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.3N 120.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.9N 120.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 170SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.5N 121.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 180SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.6N 123.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE  60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 24.0N 125.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 26.2N 128.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 119.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 190832
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...LOWELL STRENGTHENS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 119.0W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.0 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 190832
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0900 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 119.0W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 200SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 119.0W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 118.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.7N 119.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 130SE  90SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.3N 120.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.9N 120.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 170SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.5N 121.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 180SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.6N 123.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE  60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 24.0N 125.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 26.2N 128.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 119.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI





000
WTPZ32 KNHC 190832
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...LOWELL STRENGTHENS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 119.0W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.0 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




000
AXNT20 KNHC 190542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N36W TO 22N37W MOVING W AT 20-25
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDE WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND A MAXIMUM
IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
AND IN THE VICINITY OF 16N37W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N50W TO 19N51W MOVING W AT 20-25
KT. 700 MB TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS BECOME
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN GLOBAL MODEL DATA...HOWEVER SUBTLE
INDICATION IS THAT THE AXIS HAS CROSSED 50W DURING THE PAST 6 TO
12 HOURS. 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY IS ALSO FOCUSED IN THE
VICINITY OF 14N51W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N87W TO 23N85W MOVING W AT 25 KT.
BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A 850 MB
RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR
16N87W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
17N-24N BETWEEN 84W-88W...AND FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 86W-91W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO
A 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N23W TO 13N37W TO 11N49W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N49W TO
09N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-14N
BETWEEN 22W-29W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
12N45W TO 09N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-13N
BETWEEN 33W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N97W THAT INFLUENCES MUCH
OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W THIS EVENING. WHILE SURFACE RIDGING
EXTENDS ALONG 28N ACROSS THE BASIN...AMPLE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
20N-23N BETWEEN 94W-98W...AND FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 89W-97W.
OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC
IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FAR NW GULF WATERS THIS EVENING. ONE
EXCEPTION ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 25N BETWEEN 80W-85W. THE RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG 28N THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN
SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W IS BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION TO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS EVENING.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 12N-24N
BETWEEN 82W-89W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN EAST OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE IS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION AND ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE PERSISTING GENERALLY S OF 17N
BETWEEN 70W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...CONDITIONS THIS EVENING REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL AFTER
EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND REMAIN OFFSHORE
ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WATERS. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND
OVERALL DRYING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE HISPANIOLA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG WITH THE
USUAL POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DUE TO
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC NEAR 27N79W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SURFACE RIDGING
ALONG 28N. TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...UPPER LEVEL
NW FLOW PREVAILS N OF 28N W OF 62W PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR SKIES
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO TUESDAY. LINGERING MOISTURE AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE HOWEVER OCCURRING S OF 26N W OF
78W DUE TO MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N64W AND
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. FARTHER EAST...THE SURFACE
RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AS A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 32N42W SW TO 24N53W. TO THE EAST...A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N28W AND EXTENDS SW TO 28N37W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF BOTH
BOUNDARIES. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN ATLC STEMMING FROM A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 190542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N36W TO 22N37W MOVING W AT 20-25
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDE WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND A MAXIMUM
IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
AND IN THE VICINITY OF 16N37W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N50W TO 19N51W MOVING W AT 20-25
KT. 700 MB TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS BECOME
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN GLOBAL MODEL DATA...HOWEVER SUBTLE
INDICATION IS THAT THE AXIS HAS CROSSED 50W DURING THE PAST 6 TO
12 HOURS. 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY IS ALSO FOCUSED IN THE
VICINITY OF 14N51W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N87W TO 23N85W MOVING W AT 25 KT.
BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A 850 MB
RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR
16N87W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
17N-24N BETWEEN 84W-88W...AND FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 86W-91W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO
A 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N23W TO 13N37W TO 11N49W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N49W TO
09N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-14N
BETWEEN 22W-29W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
12N45W TO 09N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-13N
BETWEEN 33W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N97W THAT INFLUENCES MUCH
OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W THIS EVENING. WHILE SURFACE RIDGING
EXTENDS ALONG 28N ACROSS THE BASIN...AMPLE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
20N-23N BETWEEN 94W-98W...AND FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 89W-97W.
OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC
IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FAR NW GULF WATERS THIS EVENING. ONE
EXCEPTION ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 25N BETWEEN 80W-85W. THE RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG 28N THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN
SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W IS BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION TO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS EVENING.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 12N-24N
BETWEEN 82W-89W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN EAST OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE IS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION AND ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE PERSISTING GENERALLY S OF 17N
BETWEEN 70W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...CONDITIONS THIS EVENING REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL AFTER
EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND REMAIN OFFSHORE
ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WATERS. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND
OVERALL DRYING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE HISPANIOLA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG WITH THE
USUAL POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DUE TO
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC NEAR 27N79W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SURFACE RIDGING
ALONG 28N. TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...UPPER LEVEL
NW FLOW PREVAILS N OF 28N W OF 62W PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR SKIES
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO TUESDAY. LINGERING MOISTURE AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE HOWEVER OCCURRING S OF 26N W OF
78W DUE TO MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N64W AND
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. FARTHER EAST...THE SURFACE
RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AS A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 32N42W SW TO 24N53W. TO THE EAST...A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N28W AND EXTENDS SW TO 28N37W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF BOTH
BOUNDARIES. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN ATLC STEMMING FROM A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 190542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N36W TO 22N37W MOVING W AT 20-25
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDE WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND A MAXIMUM
IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
AND IN THE VICINITY OF 16N37W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N50W TO 19N51W MOVING W AT 20-25
KT. 700 MB TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS BECOME
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN GLOBAL MODEL DATA...HOWEVER SUBTLE
INDICATION IS THAT THE AXIS HAS CROSSED 50W DURING THE PAST 6 TO
12 HOURS. 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY IS ALSO FOCUSED IN THE
VICINITY OF 14N51W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N87W TO 23N85W MOVING W AT 25 KT.
BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A 850 MB
RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR
16N87W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
17N-24N BETWEEN 84W-88W...AND FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 86W-91W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO
A 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N23W TO 13N37W TO 11N49W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N49W TO
09N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-14N
BETWEEN 22W-29W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
12N45W TO 09N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-13N
BETWEEN 33W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N97W THAT INFLUENCES MUCH
OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W THIS EVENING. WHILE SURFACE RIDGING
EXTENDS ALONG 28N ACROSS THE BASIN...AMPLE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
20N-23N BETWEEN 94W-98W...AND FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 89W-97W.
OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC
IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FAR NW GULF WATERS THIS EVENING. ONE
EXCEPTION ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 25N BETWEEN 80W-85W. THE RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG 28N THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN
SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W IS BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION TO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS EVENING.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 12N-24N
BETWEEN 82W-89W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN EAST OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE IS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION AND ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE PERSISTING GENERALLY S OF 17N
BETWEEN 70W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...CONDITIONS THIS EVENING REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL AFTER
EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND REMAIN OFFSHORE
ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WATERS. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND
OVERALL DRYING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE HISPANIOLA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG WITH THE
USUAL POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DUE TO
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC NEAR 27N79W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SURFACE RIDGING
ALONG 28N. TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...UPPER LEVEL
NW FLOW PREVAILS N OF 28N W OF 62W PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR SKIES
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO TUESDAY. LINGERING MOISTURE AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE HOWEVER OCCURRING S OF 26N W OF
78W DUE TO MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N64W AND
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. FARTHER EAST...THE SURFACE
RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AS A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 32N42W SW TO 24N53W. TO THE EAST...A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N28W AND EXTENDS SW TO 28N37W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF BOTH
BOUNDARIES. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN ATLC STEMMING FROM A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 190542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N36W TO 22N37W MOVING W AT 20-25
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDE WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND A MAXIMUM
IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
AND IN THE VICINITY OF 16N37W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N50W TO 19N51W MOVING W AT 20-25
KT. 700 MB TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS BECOME
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN GLOBAL MODEL DATA...HOWEVER SUBTLE
INDICATION IS THAT THE AXIS HAS CROSSED 50W DURING THE PAST 6 TO
12 HOURS. 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY IS ALSO FOCUSED IN THE
VICINITY OF 14N51W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N87W TO 23N85W MOVING W AT 25 KT.
BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A 850 MB
RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR
16N87W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
17N-24N BETWEEN 84W-88W...AND FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 86W-91W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO
A 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N23W TO 13N37W TO 11N49W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N49W TO
09N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-14N
BETWEEN 22W-29W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
12N45W TO 09N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-13N
BETWEEN 33W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N97W THAT INFLUENCES MUCH
OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W THIS EVENING. WHILE SURFACE RIDGING
EXTENDS ALONG 28N ACROSS THE BASIN...AMPLE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
20N-23N BETWEEN 94W-98W...AND FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 89W-97W.
OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC
IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FAR NW GULF WATERS THIS EVENING. ONE
EXCEPTION ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 25N BETWEEN 80W-85W. THE RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG 28N THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN
SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W IS BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION TO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS EVENING.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 12N-24N
BETWEEN 82W-89W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN EAST OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE IS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION AND ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE PERSISTING GENERALLY S OF 17N
BETWEEN 70W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...CONDITIONS THIS EVENING REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL AFTER
EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND REMAIN OFFSHORE
ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WATERS. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND
OVERALL DRYING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE HISPANIOLA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG WITH THE
USUAL POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DUE TO
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC NEAR 27N79W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SURFACE RIDGING
ALONG 28N. TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...UPPER LEVEL
NW FLOW PREVAILS N OF 28N W OF 62W PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR SKIES
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO TUESDAY. LINGERING MOISTURE AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE HOWEVER OCCURRING S OF 26N W OF
78W DUE TO MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N64W AND
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. FARTHER EAST...THE SURFACE
RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AS A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 32N42W SW TO 24N53W. TO THE EAST...A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N28W AND EXTENDS SW TO 28N37W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF BOTH
BOUNDARIES. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN ATLC STEMMING FROM A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
ABNT20 KNHC 190539
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a weak and elongated area of low
pressure centered about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
is limited.  Although development of this system is not expected
during the next couple of days, some slow development is possible by
the end of the week when the system approaches the Lesser Antilles
and moves into the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms.  Any development of this system is expected to be
slow to occur during the next several days while it moves to the
west-northwest at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
ABNT20 KNHC 190539
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a weak and elongated area of low
pressure centered about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
is limited.  Although development of this system is not expected
during the next couple of days, some slow development is possible by
the end of the week when the system approaches the Lesser Antilles
and moves into the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms.  Any development of this system is expected to be
slow to occur during the next several days while it moves to the
west-northwest at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
ABNT20 KNHC 190539
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a weak and elongated area of low
pressure centered about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
is limited.  Although development of this system is not expected
during the next couple of days, some slow development is possible by
the end of the week when the system approaches the Lesser Antilles
and moves into the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms.  Any development of this system is expected to be
slow to occur during the next several days while it moves to the
west-northwest at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
ABNT20 KNHC 190539
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a weak and elongated area of low
pressure centered about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
is limited.  Although development of this system is not expected
during the next couple of days, some slow development is possible by
the end of the week when the system approaches the Lesser Antilles
and moves into the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms.  Any development of this system is expected to be
slow to occur during the next several days while it moves to the
west-northwest at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190534
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Lowell,
located about 700 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the far eastern
Pacific are associated with a tropical wave moving off the coast of
Central America.  Low pressure is expected to form south of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec by late Wednesday, and environmental conditions
appear conducive for the low to become a tropical depression by the
weekend while it moves west-northwestward off the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190534
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Lowell,
located about 700 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the far eastern
Pacific are associated with a tropical wave moving off the coast of
Central America.  Low pressure is expected to form south of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec by late Wednesday, and environmental conditions
appear conducive for the low to become a tropical depression by the
weekend while it moves west-northwestward off the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190534
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Lowell,
located about 700 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the far eastern
Pacific are associated with a tropical wave moving off the coast of
Central America.  Low pressure is expected to form south of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec by late Wednesday, and environmental conditions
appear conducive for the low to become a tropical depression by the
weekend while it moves west-northwestward off the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190534
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Lowell,
located about 700 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the far eastern
Pacific are associated with a tropical wave moving off the coast of
Central America.  Low pressure is expected to form south of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec by late Wednesday, and environmental conditions
appear conducive for the low to become a tropical depression by the
weekend while it moves west-northwestward off the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
ACPN50 PHFO 190530
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST MON AUG 18 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WAS NEARLY STATIONARY ABOUT 850 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO. IRREGULAR...PULSING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED
TO DEVELOP AROUND THIS LOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT INTERACTED WITH THE
CIRCULATION AROUND TROPICAL STORM KARINA. SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY SHEAR
OVER THE AREA IN QUESTION WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU MOVED
WEST SLOWLY. THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED AROUND THIS LOW. SIGNIFICANT
EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA IN QUESTION WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

$$

RYSHKO




000
ACPN50 PHFO 190530
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST MON AUG 18 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WAS NEARLY STATIONARY ABOUT 850 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO. IRREGULAR...PULSING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED
TO DEVELOP AROUND THIS LOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT INTERACTED WITH THE
CIRCULATION AROUND TROPICAL STORM KARINA. SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY SHEAR
OVER THE AREA IN QUESTION WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU MOVED
WEST SLOWLY. THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED AROUND THIS LOW. SIGNIFICANT
EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA IN QUESTION WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

$$

RYSHKO





000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190302
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.9N 133.6W...OR 1250 NM
E OF HILO HAWAII AT 19/0300 UTC MOVING WSW OR 255 DEG AT 7 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER.
KARINA IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS WHILE CONTINUING ON A WSW MOTION AND WILL SLOW DOWN IN
FORWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL HAS FORMED NEAR NEAR 17.0N 118.6W AT
19/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 600 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35
KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM SW QUADRANT. THE TROPICAL
STORM IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WHILE MOVING MORE TO THE NW...EVENTUALLY TURNING MORE TO THE N
LATER IN THE WEEK. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND EMERGING
OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF NW NICARAGUA NEAR 11N87W. THE
INTERACTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH SOUTH OF
PANAMA IS ENHANCING AREAS OF CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH E OF 90W. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTING AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR.
THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BECOMING
MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO
INTERACTIVE WITH MOISTURE RICH SW FLOW INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH.
LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A LOW WILL FORM
ALONG THE WAVE BY WED NEAR 10N95W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N100W TO
15N110W BEFORE REACHING LOWELL...THEN RESUMES WEST OF KARINA AND
REACHES FROM 14N135W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 270 NM S OF AXIS E OF 90W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN
210 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 32N135W TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 25113W.
THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF KARINA AND LOWELL.

A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS WERE PULSING IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD HAVE ALREADY
DIMINISHED. ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC OFF NICARAGUA.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190302
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.9N 133.6W...OR 1250 NM
E OF HILO HAWAII AT 19/0300 UTC MOVING WSW OR 255 DEG AT 7 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER.
KARINA IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS WHILE CONTINUING ON A WSW MOTION AND WILL SLOW DOWN IN
FORWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL HAS FORMED NEAR NEAR 17.0N 118.6W AT
19/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 600 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35
KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM SW QUADRANT. THE TROPICAL
STORM IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WHILE MOVING MORE TO THE NW...EVENTUALLY TURNING MORE TO THE N
LATER IN THE WEEK. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND EMERGING
OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF NW NICARAGUA NEAR 11N87W. THE
INTERACTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH SOUTH OF
PANAMA IS ENHANCING AREAS OF CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH E OF 90W. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTING AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR.
THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BECOMING
MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO
INTERACTIVE WITH MOISTURE RICH SW FLOW INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH.
LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A LOW WILL FORM
ALONG THE WAVE BY WED NEAR 10N95W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N100W TO
15N110W BEFORE REACHING LOWELL...THEN RESUMES WEST OF KARINA AND
REACHES FROM 14N135W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 270 NM S OF AXIS E OF 90W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN
210 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 32N135W TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 25113W.
THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF KARINA AND LOWELL.

A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS WERE PULSING IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD HAVE ALREADY
DIMINISHED. ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC OFF NICARAGUA.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
WTPZ21 KNHC 190231
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0300 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 133.6W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE   0SE  60SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 133.6W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 133.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.9N 134.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.9N 135.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.9N 136.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.0N 136.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.0N 136.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 16.6N 135.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 17.5N 134.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 133.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




000
WTPZ31 KNHC 190231
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

...KARINA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 133.6W
ABOUT 1435 MI...2310 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.6 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WITH DECREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND KARINA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 190231
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

...KARINA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 133.6W
ABOUT 1435 MI...2310 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.6 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WITH DECREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND KARINA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 190231
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

...KARINA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 133.6W
ABOUT 1435 MI...2310 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.6 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WITH DECREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND KARINA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 190231
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

...KARINA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 133.6W
ABOUT 1435 MI...2310 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.6 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WITH DECREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND KARINA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



000
WTPZ21 KNHC 190231
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0300 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 133.6W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE   0SE  60SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 133.6W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 133.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.9N 134.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.9N 135.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.9N 136.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.0N 136.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.0N 136.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 16.6N 135.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 17.5N 134.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 133.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH





000
WTPZ22 KNHC 190230
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0300 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 118.6W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 180SE 180SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 118.6W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 118.3W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.4N 119.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 130SE  90SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.0N 120.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.6N 120.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 170SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.3N 120.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 180SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.0N 121.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE  60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 23.4N 124.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 25.5N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 118.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





000
WTPZ32 KNHC 190230
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

...DEPRESSION BECOMES THE 12TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 118.6W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.6 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TOMORROW...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 190230
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0300 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 118.6W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 180SE 180SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 118.6W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 118.3W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.4N 119.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 130SE  90SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.0N 120.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.6N 120.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 170SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.3N 120.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 180SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.0N 121.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE  60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 23.4N 124.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 25.5N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 118.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





000
WTPZ32 KNHC 190230
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

...DEPRESSION BECOMES THE 12TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 118.6W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.6 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TOMORROW...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 190230
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0300 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 118.6W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 180SE 180SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 118.6W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 118.3W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.4N 119.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 130SE  90SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.0N 120.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.6N 120.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 170SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.3N 120.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 180SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.0N 121.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE  60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 23.4N 124.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 25.5N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 118.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 190230
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

...DEPRESSION BECOMES THE 12TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 118.6W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.6 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TOMORROW...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 190230
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0300 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 118.6W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 180SE 180SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 118.6W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 118.3W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.4N 119.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 130SE  90SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.0N 120.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.6N 120.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 170SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.3N 120.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 180SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.0N 121.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE  60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 23.4N 124.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 25.5N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 118.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 190230
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

...DEPRESSION BECOMES THE 12TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 118.6W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.6 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TOMORROW...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




000
AXNT20 KNHC 190003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N33W TO 12N34W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR IS IN
THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N43W TO 11N46W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 42W-46W COINCIDING WITH A REGION OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
22N84W TO 10N86W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ENHANCING ISOLATED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 82W-85W.
ALSO...SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
15N16W TO A 1010 NM LOW AT 11N21W TO A 1010 MB LOW AT 12N29W TO
12N39W TO 9N53W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS
NEAR 9N53W TO 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-13N E OF 27W AND FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SUPPORTING 5-15 KT ANTICYLONIC WINDS. THE NORTHERN END OF
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF...YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN MAY
SHIFT WEST INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF...MID LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER
MODERATE MOISTURE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITH ISOLATED TSTMS SOUTH OF 27N WEST OF 93W. THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BASIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ENHANCING ISOLATED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN BASIN FROM PANAMA NORTH TO 12N BETWEEN 84W AND 76W.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG CUBA IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH EXTEND WITHIN 20 NM OF THE
COASTLINE. ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE BEING SUPPORTED BY
STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR. DUST AND HAZE
IS BEING REPORTED BY MANY OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AS WELL AS
HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SAHARAN AIRMASS. A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW BASIN CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT 20-25 KT WINDS S OF 17N. TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE
ELSEWHERE. THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN BASIN
WILL ENTER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY MORNING TUESDAY LEAVING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NW BASIN. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THU MORNING.

HISPANIOLA...

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED FROM THE MOUNTAINOUS
REGION OF WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO HAITI WHERE SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED. A SAHARAN AIRMASS IS
ON THE REMAINDER ISLAND WHERE HAZE AND DUST HAVE BEEN REPORTED.
THIS CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT AS THE SAHARAN
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE HAS
MOVED INTO THE SW N ATLC WATERS N OF 27N W OF 79W. A PATCH OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH A REGION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ON
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST...A
1020 MB HIGH IS ANCHORED NEAR 26N66W WHICH IS FORECAST TO STALL
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...THERE IS A
WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE RIDGE BEING REFLECTED AS A 1015 MB LOW
NEAR 30N43W FROM WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO 24N50W.
THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO FEATURES. EAST
OF THE LOW CENTER...THE TAIL OF A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS BEING
ANALYZED FROM 30N32W TO 28N36W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE...SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NAR/ASL


000
AXNT20 KNHC 190003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N33W TO 12N34W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR IS IN
THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N43W TO 11N46W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 42W-46W COINCIDING WITH A REGION OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
22N84W TO 10N86W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ENHANCING ISOLATED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 82W-85W.
ALSO...SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
15N16W TO A 1010 NM LOW AT 11N21W TO A 1010 MB LOW AT 12N29W TO
12N39W TO 9N53W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS
NEAR 9N53W TO 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-13N E OF 27W AND FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SUPPORTING 5-15 KT ANTICYLONIC WINDS. THE NORTHERN END OF
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF...YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN MAY
SHIFT WEST INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF...MID LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER
MODERATE MOISTURE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITH ISOLATED TSTMS SOUTH OF 27N WEST OF 93W. THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BASIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ENHANCING ISOLATED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN BASIN FROM PANAMA NORTH TO 12N BETWEEN 84W AND 76W.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG CUBA IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH EXTEND WITHIN 20 NM OF THE
COASTLINE. ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE BEING SUPPORTED BY
STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR. DUST AND HAZE
IS BEING REPORTED BY MANY OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AS WELL AS
HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SAHARAN AIRMASS. A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW BASIN CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT 20-25 KT WINDS S OF 17N. TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE
ELSEWHERE. THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN BASIN
WILL ENTER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY MORNING TUESDAY LEAVING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NW BASIN. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THU MORNING.

HISPANIOLA...

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED FROM THE MOUNTAINOUS
REGION OF WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO HAITI WHERE SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED. A SAHARAN AIRMASS IS
ON THE REMAINDER ISLAND WHERE HAZE AND DUST HAVE BEEN REPORTED.
THIS CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT AS THE SAHARAN
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE HAS
MOVED INTO THE SW N ATLC WATERS N OF 27N W OF 79W. A PATCH OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH A REGION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ON
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST...A
1020 MB HIGH IS ANCHORED NEAR 26N66W WHICH IS FORECAST TO STALL
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...THERE IS A
WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE RIDGE BEING REFLECTED AS A 1015 MB LOW
NEAR 30N43W FROM WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO 24N50W.
THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO FEATURES. EAST
OF THE LOW CENTER...THE TAIL OF A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS BEING
ANALYZED FROM 30N32W TO 28N36W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE...SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NAR/ASL


000
AXNT20 KNHC 190003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N33W TO 12N34W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR IS IN
THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N43W TO 11N46W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 42W-46W COINCIDING WITH A REGION OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
22N84W TO 10N86W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ENHANCING ISOLATED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 82W-85W.
ALSO...SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
15N16W TO A 1010 NM LOW AT 11N21W TO A 1010 MB LOW AT 12N29W TO
12N39W TO 9N53W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS
NEAR 9N53W TO 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-13N E OF 27W AND FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SUPPORTING 5-15 KT ANTICYLONIC WINDS. THE NORTHERN END OF
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF...YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN MAY
SHIFT WEST INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF...MID LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER
MODERATE MOISTURE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITH ISOLATED TSTMS SOUTH OF 27N WEST OF 93W. THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BASIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ENHANCING ISOLATED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN BASIN FROM PANAMA NORTH TO 12N BETWEEN 84W AND 76W.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG CUBA IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH EXTEND WITHIN 20 NM OF THE
COASTLINE. ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE BEING SUPPORTED BY
STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR. DUST AND HAZE
IS BEING REPORTED BY MANY OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AS WELL AS
HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SAHARAN AIRMASS. A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW BASIN CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT 20-25 KT WINDS S OF 17N. TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE
ELSEWHERE. THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN BASIN
WILL ENTER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY MORNING TUESDAY LEAVING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NW BASIN. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THU MORNING.

HISPANIOLA...

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED FROM THE MOUNTAINOUS
REGION OF WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO HAITI WHERE SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED. A SAHARAN AIRMASS IS
ON THE REMAINDER ISLAND WHERE HAZE AND DUST HAVE BEEN REPORTED.
THIS CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT AS THE SAHARAN
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE HAS
MOVED INTO THE SW N ATLC WATERS N OF 27N W OF 79W. A PATCH OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH A REGION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ON
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST...A
1020 MB HIGH IS ANCHORED NEAR 26N66W WHICH IS FORECAST TO STALL
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...THERE IS A
WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE RIDGE BEING REFLECTED AS A 1015 MB LOW
NEAR 30N43W FROM WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO 24N50W.
THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO FEATURES. EAST
OF THE LOW CENTER...THE TAIL OF A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS BEING
ANALYZED FROM 30N32W TO 28N36W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE...SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NAR/ASL


000
AXNT20 KNHC 190003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N33W TO 12N34W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR IS IN
THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N43W TO 11N46W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 42W-46W COINCIDING WITH A REGION OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
22N84W TO 10N86W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ENHANCING ISOLATED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 82W-85W.
ALSO...SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
15N16W TO A 1010 NM LOW AT 11N21W TO A 1010 MB LOW AT 12N29W TO
12N39W TO 9N53W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS
NEAR 9N53W TO 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-13N E OF 27W AND FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SUPPORTING 5-15 KT ANTICYLONIC WINDS. THE NORTHERN END OF
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF...YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN MAY
SHIFT WEST INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF...MID LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER
MODERATE MOISTURE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITH ISOLATED TSTMS SOUTH OF 27N WEST OF 93W. THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BASIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ENHANCING ISOLATED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN BASIN FROM PANAMA NORTH TO 12N BETWEEN 84W AND 76W.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG CUBA IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH EXTEND WITHIN 20 NM OF THE
COASTLINE. ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE BEING SUPPORTED BY
STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR. DUST AND HAZE
IS BEING REPORTED BY MANY OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AS WELL AS
HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SAHARAN AIRMASS. A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW BASIN CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT 20-25 KT WINDS S OF 17N. TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE
ELSEWHERE. THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN BASIN
WILL ENTER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY MORNING TUESDAY LEAVING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NW BASIN. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THU MORNING.

HISPANIOLA...

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED FROM THE MOUNTAINOUS
REGION OF WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO HAITI WHERE SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED. A SAHARAN AIRMASS IS
ON THE REMAINDER ISLAND WHERE HAZE AND DUST HAVE BEEN REPORTED.
THIS CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT AS THE SAHARAN
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE HAS
MOVED INTO THE SW N ATLC WATERS N OF 27N W OF 79W. A PATCH OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH A REGION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ON
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST...A
1020 MB HIGH IS ANCHORED NEAR 26N66W WHICH IS FORECAST TO STALL
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...THERE IS A
WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE RIDGE BEING REFLECTED AS A 1015 MB LOW
NEAR 30N43W FROM WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO 24N50W.
THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO FEATURES. EAST
OF THE LOW CENTER...THE TAIL OF A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS BEING
ANALYZED FROM 30N32W TO 28N36W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE...SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NAR/ASL


000
ACPN50 PHFO 190002
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST MON AUG 18 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 850 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...
HAWAII IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THERE HAVE BEEN NO THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM FOR AT LEAST 12 HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THE EAST AND NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM WHERE THE OUTER CIRCULATION IS INTERACTING WITH THE
CIRCULATION OF KARINA. INFRARED AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW SIGNIFICANT
EASTERLY SHEAR IN THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII...HAS BEEN MOVING WEST SLOWLY. THERE HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA FOR OVER 12 HOURS. EASTERLY WIND SHEAR
AT THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY PREVENT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

RTANABE






000
ACPN50 PHFO 190002
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST MON AUG 18 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 850 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...
HAWAII IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THERE HAVE BEEN NO THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM FOR AT LEAST 12 HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THE EAST AND NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM WHERE THE OUTER CIRCULATION IS INTERACTING WITH THE
CIRCULATION OF KARINA. INFRARED AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW SIGNIFICANT
EASTERLY SHEAR IN THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII...HAS BEEN MOVING WEST SLOWLY. THERE HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA FOR OVER 12 HOURS. EASTERLY WIND SHEAR
AT THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY PREVENT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

RTANABE






000
ACPN50 PHFO 190002
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST MON AUG 18 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 850 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...
HAWAII IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THERE HAVE BEEN NO THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM FOR AT LEAST 12 HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THE EAST AND NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM WHERE THE OUTER CIRCULATION IS INTERACTING WITH THE
CIRCULATION OF KARINA. INFRARED AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW SIGNIFICANT
EASTERLY SHEAR IN THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII...HAS BEEN MOVING WEST SLOWLY. THERE HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA FOR OVER 12 HOURS. EASTERLY WIND SHEAR
AT THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY PREVENT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

RTANABE






000
ACPN50 PHFO 190002
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST MON AUG 18 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 850 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...
HAWAII IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THERE HAVE BEEN NO THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM FOR AT LEAST 12 HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THE EAST AND NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM WHERE THE OUTER CIRCULATION IS INTERACTING WITH THE
CIRCULATION OF KARINA. INFRARED AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW SIGNIFICANT
EASTERLY SHEAR IN THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII...HAS BEEN MOVING WEST SLOWLY. THERE HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA FOR OVER 12 HOURS. EASTERLY WIND SHEAR
AT THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY PREVENT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

RTANABE






000
ACCA62 TJSJ 182349
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT LUNES 18 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADA CON UN AREA DEBIL Y ALARGADA DE
BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A 1000 MILLAS APROXIMADAMENTE AL ESTE DE LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES PERMANECE DESORGANIZADA. NO SE ANTICIPA QUE LAS
CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SEAN FAVORABLES PARA FORMACION DE CICLON
TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE
HACIA EL OESTE O OESTE NOROESTE DE 10 A 15 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...0 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.

UN AREA DE TIEMPO PERTURBADO SOBRE EL CENTRO DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO
TROPICAL ENTRE AFRICA Y LAS ANTILLAS MENORES ESTA ASOCIADA CON UNA
ONDA TROPICAL. SE ESPERA QUE CUALQUIER DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA
SERA LENTO EN OCURRIR DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE
HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR
CIENTO.


$$

PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE




000
ABNT20 KNHC 182342
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a weak and elongated area of low
pressure centered about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are not expected to
be favorable for significant development over the next few days
while the system moves to the west or west-northwest at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean about midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles is
associated with a tropical wave.  Any development of this system is
expected to be slow to occur over the next several days while it
moves to the west-northwest at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182330
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Depression Twelve-E, located
several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

A tropical wave over Central America is expected to move westward
and cause the formation of a low pressure area south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec by Thursday.  Additional development of this system is
likely later this week while the low moves west-northwestward well
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182330
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Depression Twelve-E, located
several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

A tropical wave over Central America is expected to move westward
and cause the formation of a low pressure area south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec by Thursday.  Additional development of this system is
likely later this week while the low moves west-northwestward well
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182149
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON AUG 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.1N 133.0W...OR 1470 NM
E OF HILO HAWAII AT 18/2100 UTC MOVING WSW OR 245 DEG AT 6 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. KARINA IS
FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE
CONTINUING ON A WSW MOTION AND WILL SLOW DOWN IN FORWARD
MOVEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E CENTERED NEAR 16.6N 117.9W AT
18/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 590 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 240 NM W QUADRANT. THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
THIS EVENING WHILE MOVING MORE TO THE NW...EVENTUALLY TURNING
MORE TO THE N LATER IN THE WEEK. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 10N100W TO
15N110W THEN RESUMES FROM 14N135W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 210 NM S OF AXIS E OF
90W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 32N135W TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 25113W.
THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF KARINA AND
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN AND
ONSHORE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. THE INTERACTION OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH SOUTH OF PANAMA IS ENHANCING AREAS
OF CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 90W.

A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS WERE PULSING IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD HAVE ALREADY
DIMINISHED. ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE
FAR SW CARIBBEAN MOVES W OF THE AREA. WEAK LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS WHILE IT CONTINUES
WESTWARD LATER IN THE WEEK.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182149
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON AUG 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.1N 133.0W...OR 1470 NM
E OF HILO HAWAII AT 18/2100 UTC MOVING WSW OR 245 DEG AT 6 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. KARINA IS
FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE
CONTINUING ON A WSW MOTION AND WILL SLOW DOWN IN FORWARD
MOVEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E CENTERED NEAR 16.6N 117.9W AT
18/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 590 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 240 NM W QUADRANT. THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
THIS EVENING WHILE MOVING MORE TO THE NW...EVENTUALLY TURNING
MORE TO THE N LATER IN THE WEEK. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 10N100W TO
15N110W THEN RESUMES FROM 14N135W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 210 NM S OF AXIS E OF
90W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 32N135W TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 25113W.
THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF KARINA AND
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN AND
ONSHORE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. THE INTERACTION OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH SOUTH OF PANAMA IS ENHANCING AREAS
OF CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 90W.

A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS WERE PULSING IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD HAVE ALREADY
DIMINISHED. ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE
FAR SW CARIBBEAN MOVES W OF THE AREA. WEAK LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS WHILE IT CONTINUES
WESTWARD LATER IN THE WEEK.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 182040
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

...SPRAWLING DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
OPEN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 117.9W
ABOUT 680 MI...1090 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.9
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH
...9 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TOMORROW...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 182040
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

...SPRAWLING DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
OPEN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 117.9W
ABOUT 680 MI...1090 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.9
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH
...9 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TOMORROW...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 182039
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
2100 UTC MON AUG 18 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 117.9W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 117.9W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 117.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.0N 118.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE   0SE  90SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.6N 119.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.2N 120.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.9N 120.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.6N 121.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 23.0N 123.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 25.3N 125.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 117.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 182039
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
2100 UTC MON AUG 18 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 117.9W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 117.9W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 117.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.0N 118.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE   0SE  90SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.6N 119.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.2N 120.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.9N 120.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.6N 121.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 23.0N 123.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 25.3N 125.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 117.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





000
WTPZ31 KNHC 182033
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

...KARINA A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 133.0W
ABOUT 1470 MI...2370 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.0 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A SLOWER
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 182033
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

...KARINA A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 133.0W
ABOUT 1470 MI...2370 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.0 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A SLOWER
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 182032
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
2100 UTC MON AUG 18 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 133.0W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE   0SE  30SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 133.0W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 132.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.1N 134.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.1N 135.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.1N 136.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.2N 136.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.3N 136.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 16.3N 136.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 16.8N 136.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 133.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





000
WTPZ21 KNHC 182032
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
2100 UTC MON AUG 18 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 133.0W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE   0SE  30SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 133.0W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 132.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.1N 134.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.1N 135.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.1N 136.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.2N 136.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.3N 136.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 16.3N 136.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 16.8N 136.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 133.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





000
WTPZ21 KNHC 182032
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
2100 UTC MON AUG 18 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 133.0W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE   0SE  30SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 133.0W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 132.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.1N 134.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.1N 135.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.1N 136.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.2N 136.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.3N 136.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 16.3N 136.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 16.8N 136.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 133.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





000
WTPZ21 KNHC 182032
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
2100 UTC MON AUG 18 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 133.0W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE   0SE  30SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 133.0W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 132.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.1N 134.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.1N 135.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.1N 136.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.2N 136.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.3N 136.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 16.3N 136.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 16.8N 136.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 133.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





000
ACPN50 PHFO 181802
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST MON AUG 18 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 875 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...
HAWAII IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THERE ARE NO THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST PERIPHERY WHERE THE CIRCULATION IS INTERACTING WITH THE
CIRCULATION OF KARINA. INFRARED AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW SIGNIFICANT
EASTERLY SHEAR IN THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
AT THE LOWER LEVELS...ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII...HAS BEEN MOVING WEST SLOWLY. WIND SHEAR AT THE UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY PREVENT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.


$$

RTANABE





000
ACPN50 PHFO 181802
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST MON AUG 18 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 875 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...
HAWAII IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THERE ARE NO THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST PERIPHERY WHERE THE CIRCULATION IS INTERACTING WITH THE
CIRCULATION OF KARINA. INFRARED AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW SIGNIFICANT
EASTERLY SHEAR IN THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
AT THE LOWER LEVELS...ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII...HAS BEEN MOVING WEST SLOWLY. WIND SHEAR AT THE UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY PREVENT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.


$$

RTANABE






000
AXNT20 KNHC 181741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N31W TO 12N32W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MOISTURE AREA FROM 5N-
21N E OF 35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N43W TO 11N45W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOISTURE AREA S OF 17N.
THE SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR N OF 17N
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 44W-48W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
23N80W TO 10N81W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MOISTURE AREA S OF 22N. THE
WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A LARGE 700 MB TROUGH. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 78W-82W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
15N16W TO A 1010 NM LOW AT 12N22W TO A 1010 MB LOW AT 12N28W TO
11N42W TO 8N54W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS
NEAR 8N54W AND CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
7N59W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST
AFRICA FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 15W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS W OF THE 12N22W LOW FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 22W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 27N. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER
THE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 82W MOSTLY DUE TO A TROPICAL
WAVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 94W-99W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR 22N98W
ENHANCING CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N
BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE SE GULF...W CUBA...AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. ALSO EXPECT THE
CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO PERSIST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 10-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND
THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 77W-85W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER E NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA NEAR 19N77W. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
19N59W. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 12N W OF 80W. DRY AIR SAL
IS ALSO SUPPRESSING MOST CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

HISPANIOLA...
FAIR WEATHER IS PRESENTLY OVER HISPANIOLA. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIRMASS SHOWERS TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N67W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 31N32W TO 28N36W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. A 1015 MB LOW IS FURTHER W NEAR 29N43W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 23N47W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 28N-31N
BETWEEN 75W-78W. ALSO OF NOTE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 13N35W. DRY AIR SAL IS N OF THE TROPICAL
WAVES E OF 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181727
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Depression Twelve-E, located
several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

A tropical wave over Panama and Costa Rica is expected to move
westward and develop into a low pressure area south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec by Thursday.  Additional development of this system is
likely later this week while the low moves west-northwestward well
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181727
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Depression Twelve-E, located
several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

A tropical wave over Panama and Costa Rica is expected to move
westward and develop into a low pressure area south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec by Thursday.  Additional development of this system is
likely later this week while the low moves west-northwestward well
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 181721
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT LUNES 18 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADA CON UN AREA DEBIL Y ALARGADA DE
BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A 1000 MILLAS APROXIMADAMENTE AL ESTE DE LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES PERMANECE DESORGANIZADA. LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES SE HAN TORNADO MENOS FAVORABLES PARA FORMACION DE CICLON
TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...0 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...0 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 181721
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT LUNES 18 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADA CON UN AREA DEBIL Y ALARGADA DE
BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A 1000 MILLAS APROXIMADAMENTE AL ESTE DE LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES PERMANECE DESORGANIZADA. LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES SE HAN TORNADO MENOS FAVORABLES PARA FORMACION DE CICLON
TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...0 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...0 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 181721
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT LUNES 18 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADA CON UN AREA DEBIL Y ALARGADA DE
BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A 1000 MILLAS APROXIMADAMENTE AL ESTE DE LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES PERMANECE DESORGANIZADA. LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES SE HAN TORNADO MENOS FAVORABLES PARA FORMACION DE CICLON
TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...0 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...0 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 181721
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT LUNES 18 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADA CON UN AREA DEBIL Y ALARGADA DE
BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A 1000 MILLAS APROXIMADAMENTE AL ESTE DE LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES PERMANECE DESORGANIZADA. LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES SE HAN TORNADO MENOS FAVORABLES PARA FORMACION DE CICLON
TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...0 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...0 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA




000
ABNT20 KNHC 181717
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a weak and elongated area of low
pressure centered about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
remains limited and disorganized. Environmental conditions have
become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation during the next
few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABNT20 KNHC 181717
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a weak and elongated area of low
pressure centered about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
remains limited and disorganized. Environmental conditions have
become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation during the next
few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181508
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON AUG 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.8N 132.4W...OR 1303 NM
E OF HILO HAWAII AT 18/1500 UTC MOVING WSW OR 255 DEG AT 8 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM IN THE SE AND 180 NM IN THE SW
QUADRANTS. KARINA IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE CONTINUING ON A WSW MOTION AND WILL SLOW
DOWN IN FORWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E CENTERED NEAR 16.7N 117.7W AT
18/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 578 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 90 AND 240 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM IN THE
W QUADRANT. THE TD IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH LATER TODAY WHILE MOVING MORE TO THE NW...EVENTUALLY
TURNING MORE TO THE N LATER IN THE WEEK. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 09N94W TO
16N110W THEN RESUMES FROM 14N135W TO 13N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS
PRESENT E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
91W AND 97W...WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 99W...
FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 92W AND 98W...FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN
100W AND 105W...FROM 07N TO 18N BETWEEN 107W AND 110W...AND FROM
05N TO 07N BETWEEN 115W AND 118W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 32N135W TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 25113W.
THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF KARINA AND TD TWELVE-E.

E OF 110W...AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED FRESH
TO STRONG SE-S WINDS IN THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHICH WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE. A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS NW
MEXICO OVERNIGHT MAY HAVE HELPED TO ENHANCE THESE WINDS ALTHOUGH
THAT CONVECTION HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. EXPECT THE WINDS TO
DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.

A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS WERE PULSING IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE DIMINISHING
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W
OF THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. WEAK LOW PRES MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS WHILE IT
CONTINUES WESTWARD LATER IN THE WEEK.

$$
LEWITSKY


000
WTPZ32 KNHC 181440
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

...LARGE DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM LAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 117.7W
ABOUT 665 MI...1065 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.7
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BY
TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ31 KNHC 181440
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

...KARINA SHOWS NO CHANGE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 132.4W
ABOUT 1500 MI...2415 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.4 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A SLOWER
WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 181440
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
1500 UTC MON AUG 18 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 117.7W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 117.7W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 117.4W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.1N 118.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.7N 119.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.3N 120.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.9N 120.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.4N 121.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 22.8N 122.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 25.5N 125.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 117.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 181440
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

...LARGE DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM LAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 117.7W
ABOUT 665 MI...1065 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.7
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BY
TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



000
WTPZ21 KNHC 181433
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
1500 UTC MON AUG 18 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 132.4W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 132.4W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 132.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.5N 133.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.3N 134.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.3N 135.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.3N 136.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 16.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 17.5N 135.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 132.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 181433
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
1500 UTC MON AUG 18 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 132.4W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 132.4W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 132.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.5N 133.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.3N 134.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.3N 135.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.3N 136.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 16.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 17.5N 135.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 132.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 181433
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
1500 UTC MON AUG 18 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 132.4W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 132.4W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 132.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.5N 133.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.3N 134.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.3N 135.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.3N 136.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 16.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 17.5N 135.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 132.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 181433
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
1500 UTC MON AUG 18 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 132.4W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 132.4W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 132.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.5N 133.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.3N 134.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.3N 135.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.3N 136.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 16.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 17.5N 135.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 132.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
ACPN50 PHFO 181145
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON AUG 18 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 860 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...
HAWAII...HAD BEEN HEADING SLOWLY WEST...THOUGH IT APPEARS TO HAVE
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THIS SYSTEM REMAIN SPORADIC AND DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOWER LEVELS...ARE BECOMING LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII...HAS BEEN MOVING WEST SLOWLY. WIND SHEAR AT THE UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY PREVENT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.

$$

KINEL





000
ACPN50 PHFO 181145
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON AUG 18 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 860 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...
HAWAII...HAD BEEN HEADING SLOWLY WEST...THOUGH IT APPEARS TO HAVE
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THIS SYSTEM REMAIN SPORADIC AND DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOWER LEVELS...ARE BECOMING LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII...HAS BEEN MOVING WEST SLOWLY. WIND SHEAR AT THE UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY PREVENT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.

$$

KINEL




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 181113
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT LUNES 18 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS CON UN AREA DEBIL Y ALARGADA DE BAJA
PRESION LOCALIZADA ENTRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y LAS ISLAS DE CABO
VERDE...PERMANECE DESORGANIZADA. NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO DE ESTE
SISTEMA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS...PERO LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES
PUDIERAN TORNARSE UN POCO MAS FAVORABLES LUEGO CUANDO EL SISTEMA SE
MUEVA LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE A TRAVES DEL ATLANTICO TROPICAL
CENTRAL.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 181113
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT LUNES 18 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS CON UN AREA DEBIL Y ALARGADA DE BAJA
PRESION LOCALIZADA ENTRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y LAS ISLAS DE CABO
VERDE...PERMANECE DESORGANIZADA. NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO DE ESTE
SISTEMA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS...PERO LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES
PUDIERAN TORNARSE UN POCO MAS FAVORABLES LUEGO CUANDO EL SISTEMA SE
MUEVA LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE A TRAVES DEL ATLANTICO TROPICAL
CENTRAL.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 181113
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT LUNES 18 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS CON UN AREA DEBIL Y ALARGADA DE BAJA
PRESION LOCALIZADA ENTRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y LAS ISLAS DE CABO
VERDE...PERMANECE DESORGANIZADA. NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO DE ESTE
SISTEMA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS...PERO LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES
PUDIERAN TORNARSE UN POCO MAS FAVORABLES LUEGO CUANDO EL SISTEMA SE
MUEVA LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE A TRAVES DEL ATLANTICO TROPICAL
CENTRAL.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 181113
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT LUNES 18 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS CON UN AREA DEBIL Y ALARGADA DE BAJA
PRESION LOCALIZADA ENTRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y LAS ISLAS DE CABO
VERDE...PERMANECE DESORGANIZADA. NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO DE ESTE
SISTEMA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS...PERO LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES
PUDIERAN TORNARSE UN POCO MAS FAVORABLES LUEGO CUANDO EL SISTEMA SE
MUEVA LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE A TRAVES DEL ATLANTICO TROPICAL
CENTRAL.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA




000
ABNT20 KNHC 181110
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity with a weak and elongated area of low pressure
located about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde
Islands remains disorganized. Development of this system is
not expected during the next couple of days, but beyond that time,
environmental conditions could become a little more favorable for
development when the system moves slowly westward across the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
ABNT20 KNHC 181110
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity with a weak and elongated area of low pressure
located about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde
Islands remains disorganized. Development of this system is
not expected during the next couple of days, but beyond that time,
environmental conditions could become a little more favorable for
development when the system moves slowly westward across the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181109
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Depression Twelve-E, located
several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days to the
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  Slow development of this system
is possible later this week while the low moves roughly parallel to
the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181109
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Depression Twelve-E, located
several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days to the
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  Slow development of this system
is possible later this week while the low moves roughly parallel to
the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181109
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Depression Twelve-E, located
several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days to the
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  Slow development of this system
is possible later this week while the low moves roughly parallel to
the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181109
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Depression Twelve-E, located
several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days to the
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  Slow development of this system
is possible later this week while the low moves roughly parallel to
the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
AXNT20 KNHC 181051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N27W TO 21N32W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO COINCIDE WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT
AND A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY NOTED ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N42W TO 21N45W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A
1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N42W. IN ADDITION...WEAK
700 MB TROUGHING IS BECOMING MORE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON GLOBAL
MODEL DATA BETWEEN 40W-50W WITH 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY
FOCUSED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 42W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N78W TO 23N78W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS FOCUSED NEAR 12N79W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN
74W-83W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN
77W-82W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W TO
A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 14N21W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N30W
TO 13N37W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N42W TO 09N52W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N52W TO
06N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-16N
BETWEEN 14W-20W...AND FROM 09N-14N BETWEEN 19W-24W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 29W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N98W THAT INFLUENCES
MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W THIS MORNING. WHILE SURFACE
RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 27N ACROSS THE BASIN...AMPLE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 92W-98W.
OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC
IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED
ALONG 27N THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD FOR
THE TAIL END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W IS BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS TO PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN
77W-82W AT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS. AT THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WAVE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 10N BETWEEN 74W-87W...INCLUDING NW
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA DUE LARGELY TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 10N. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE
BENEATH THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
19N79W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE IS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES ARE PERSISTING GENERALLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-82W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...CONDITIONS THIS MORNING REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 79W. VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE AND AN OVERALL DRYING TREND ALOFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH TRADES PERSISTING
AND THE USUAL POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY ON MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC NEAR 27N78W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SURFACE RIDGING
ALONG 27N. TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...GENERALLY
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS N OF 30N. LINGERING MOISTURE
AND CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 29N WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN 54W-67W. OTHERWISE...THE
SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ANCHORED BY A
1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N63W FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY. FARTHER EAST...THE SURFACE RIDGING BREAKS DOWN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AS A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N31W EXTENDING SW TO 29N38W. THE FRONTAL
STRUCTURE WEAKENS TO A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N40W INTO
A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N42W THEN SW TO 25N45W TO 21N52W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN
50W-58W TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGHING. FINALLY...ANOTHER
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC STEMMING FROM A
WEAK 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 181051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N27W TO 21N32W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO COINCIDE WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT
AND A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY NOTED ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N42W TO 21N45W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A
1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N42W. IN ADDITION...WEAK
700 MB TROUGHING IS BECOMING MORE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON GLOBAL
MODEL DATA BETWEEN 40W-50W WITH 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY
FOCUSED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 42W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N78W TO 23N78W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS FOCUSED NEAR 12N79W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN
74W-83W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN
77W-82W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W TO
A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 14N21W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N30W
TO 13N37W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N42W TO 09N52W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N52W TO
06N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-16N
BETWEEN 14W-20W...AND FROM 09N-14N BETWEEN 19W-24W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 29W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N98W THAT INFLUENCES
MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W THIS MORNING. WHILE SURFACE
RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 27N ACROSS THE BASIN...AMPLE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 92W-98W.
OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC
IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED
ALONG 27N THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD FOR
THE TAIL END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W IS BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS TO PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN
77W-82W AT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS. AT THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WAVE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 10N BETWEEN 74W-87W...INCLUDING NW
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA DUE LARGELY TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 10N. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE
BENEATH THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
19N79W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE IS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES ARE PERSISTING GENERALLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-82W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...CONDITIONS THIS MORNING REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 79W. VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE AND AN OVERALL DRYING TREND ALOFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH TRADES PERSISTING
AND THE USUAL POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY ON MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC NEAR 27N78W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SURFACE RIDGING
ALONG 27N. TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...GENERALLY
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS N OF 30N. LINGERING MOISTURE
AND CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 29N WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN 54W-67W. OTHERWISE...THE
SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ANCHORED BY A
1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N63W FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY. FARTHER EAST...THE SURFACE RIDGING BREAKS DOWN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AS A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N31W EXTENDING SW TO 29N38W. THE FRONTAL
STRUCTURE WEAKENS TO A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N40W INTO
A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N42W THEN SW TO 25N45W TO 21N52W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN
50W-58W TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGHING. FINALLY...ANOTHER
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC STEMMING FROM A
WEAK 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 181051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N27W TO 21N32W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO COINCIDE WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT
AND A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY NOTED ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N42W TO 21N45W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A
1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N42W. IN ADDITION...WEAK
700 MB TROUGHING IS BECOMING MORE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON GLOBAL
MODEL DATA BETWEEN 40W-50W WITH 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY
FOCUSED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 42W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N78W TO 23N78W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS FOCUSED NEAR 12N79W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN
74W-83W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN
77W-82W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W TO
A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 14N21W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N30W
TO 13N37W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N42W TO 09N52W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N52W TO
06N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-16N
BETWEEN 14W-20W...AND FROM 09N-14N BETWEEN 19W-24W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 29W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N98W THAT INFLUENCES
MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W THIS MORNING. WHILE SURFACE
RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 27N ACROSS THE BASIN...AMPLE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 92W-98W.
OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC
IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED
ALONG 27N THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD FOR
THE TAIL END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W IS BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS TO PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN
77W-82W AT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS. AT THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WAVE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 10N BETWEEN 74W-87W...INCLUDING NW
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA DUE LARGELY TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 10N. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE
BENEATH THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
19N79W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE IS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES ARE PERSISTING GENERALLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-82W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...CONDITIONS THIS MORNING REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 79W. VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE AND AN OVERALL DRYING TREND ALOFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH TRADES PERSISTING
AND THE USUAL POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY ON MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC NEAR 27N78W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SURFACE RIDGING
ALONG 27N. TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...GENERALLY
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS N OF 30N. LINGERING MOISTURE
AND CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 29N WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN 54W-67W. OTHERWISE...THE
SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ANCHORED BY A
1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N63W FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY. FARTHER EAST...THE SURFACE RIDGING BREAKS DOWN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AS A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N31W EXTENDING SW TO 29N38W. THE FRONTAL
STRUCTURE WEAKENS TO A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N40W INTO
A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N42W THEN SW TO 25N45W TO 21N52W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN
50W-58W TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGHING. FINALLY...ANOTHER
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC STEMMING FROM A
WEAK 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 181051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N27W TO 21N32W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO COINCIDE WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT
AND A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY NOTED ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N42W TO 21N45W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A
1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N42W. IN ADDITION...WEAK
700 MB TROUGHING IS BECOMING MORE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON GLOBAL
MODEL DATA BETWEEN 40W-50W WITH 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY
FOCUSED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 42W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N78W TO 23N78W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS FOCUSED NEAR 12N79W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN
74W-83W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN
77W-82W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W TO
A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 14N21W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N30W
TO 13N37W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N42W TO 09N52W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N52W TO
06N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-16N
BETWEEN 14W-20W...AND FROM 09N-14N BETWEEN 19W-24W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 29W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N98W THAT INFLUENCES
MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W THIS MORNING. WHILE SURFACE
RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 27N ACROSS THE BASIN...AMPLE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 92W-98W.
OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC
IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED
ALONG 27N THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD FOR
THE TAIL END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W IS BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS TO PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN
77W-82W AT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS. AT THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WAVE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 10N BETWEEN 74W-87W...INCLUDING NW
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA DUE LARGELY TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 10N. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE
BENEATH THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
19N79W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE IS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES ARE PERSISTING GENERALLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-82W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...CONDITIONS THIS MORNING REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 79W. VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE AND AN OVERALL DRYING TREND ALOFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH TRADES PERSISTING
AND THE USUAL POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY ON MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC NEAR 27N78W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SURFACE RIDGING
ALONG 27N. TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...GENERALLY
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS N OF 30N. LINGERING MOISTURE
AND CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 29N WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN 54W-67W. OTHERWISE...THE
SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ANCHORED BY A
1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N63W FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY. FARTHER EAST...THE SURFACE RIDGING BREAKS DOWN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AS A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N31W EXTENDING SW TO 29N38W. THE FRONTAL
STRUCTURE WEAKENS TO A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N40W INTO
A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N42W THEN SW TO 25N45W TO 21N52W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN
50W-58W TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGHING. FINALLY...ANOTHER
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC STEMMING FROM A
WEAK 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180945
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON AUG 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.1N 131.5W AT 18/0900
UTC...MOVING WSW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM SW OF
CENTER. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E CENTERED NEAR 16.0N 117.5W AT
18/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 595 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...MOVING W AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLE AND FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 112W AND
118W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 11N105W 17N112W...THEN
CONTINUES FROM 14N134W TO 15N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH AXIS E OF 109W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH 30N135W TO SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS MAINTAINING MODERATE
TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE EXCEPT IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF
T.S. KARINA AND NORTH OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THE BASIN WILL BECOME ACTIVE IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS MULTIPLE TROPICAL CYCLONES TRY TO DEVELOP.

AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE REGION N OF 20N W OF 100W WITH
MODERATE DRY STABLE AIR. SW FLOW INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG
WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER E CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N97W IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM S OF
AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 109W.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180945
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON AUG 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.1N 131.5W AT 18/0900
UTC...MOVING WSW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM SW OF
CENTER. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E CENTERED NEAR 16.0N 117.5W AT
18/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 595 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...MOVING W AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLE AND FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 112W AND
118W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 11N105W 17N112W...THEN
CONTINUES FROM 14N134W TO 15N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH AXIS E OF 109W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH 30N135W TO SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS MAINTAINING MODERATE
TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE EXCEPT IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF
T.S. KARINA AND NORTH OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THE BASIN WILL BECOME ACTIVE IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS MULTIPLE TROPICAL CYCLONES TRY TO DEVELOP.

AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE REGION N OF 20N W OF 100W WITH
MODERATE DRY STABLE AIR. SW FLOW INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG
WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER E CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N97W IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM S OF
AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 109W.

$$
MUNDELL



000
WTPZ21 KNHC 180856
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0900 UTC MON AUG 18 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 131.5W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 131.5W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 131.1W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.7N 132.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.4N 133.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.3N 134.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.3N 135.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.5N 136.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 16.5N 136.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 17.6N 135.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 131.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 180856
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0900 UTC MON AUG 18 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 131.5W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 131.5W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 131.1W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.7N 132.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.4N 133.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.3N 134.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.3N 135.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.5N 136.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 16.5N 136.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 17.6N 135.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 131.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 180856
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0900 UTC MON AUG 18 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 131.5W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 131.5W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 131.1W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.7N 132.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.4N 133.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.3N 134.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.3N 135.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.5N 136.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 16.5N 136.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 17.6N 135.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 131.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 180856
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0900 UTC MON AUG 18 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 131.5W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 131.5W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 131.1W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.7N 132.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.4N 133.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.3N 134.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.3N 135.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.5N 136.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 16.5N 136.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 17.6N 135.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 131.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




000
WTPZ31 KNHC 180847
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

...KARINA MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FAR FROM LAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 131.5W
ABOUT 1555 MI...2505 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.5 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A SLOWER
WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



000
WTPZ21 KNHC 180846
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0900 UTC MON AUG 18 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 131.5W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 131.5W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 131.1W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.7N 132.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.4N 133.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.3N 134.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.3N 135.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.5N 136.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 16.5N 136.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 17.6N 135.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 131.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI





000
WTPZ32 KNHC 180844
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

...LARGE DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 117.5W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BY
TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 180844
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0900 UTC MON AUG 18 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 117.5W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 117.5W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 117.1W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.4N 118.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.0N 119.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.7N 120.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.4N 120.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.7N 120.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 22.2N 122.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 25.5N 124.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 117.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 180844
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0900 UTC MON AUG 18 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 117.5W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 117.5W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 117.1W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.4N 118.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.0N 119.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.7N 120.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.4N 120.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.7N 120.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 22.2N 122.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 25.5N 124.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 117.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI





000
ACPN50 PHFO 180552
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SUN AUG 17 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ABOUT 920 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...
HAWAII...HAS BEEN HEADING SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTHWEST. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THIS SYSTEM REMAIN DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOWER LEVELS...ARE BECOMING LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 770 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII...HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY. WIND SHEAR AT THE UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY PREVENT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

$$

KINEL





000
ACPN50 PHFO 180552
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SUN AUG 17 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ABOUT 920 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...
HAWAII...HAS BEEN HEADING SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTHWEST. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THIS SYSTEM REMAIN DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOWER LEVELS...ARE BECOMING LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 770 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII...HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY. WIND SHEAR AT THE UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY PREVENT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

$$

KINEL




000
AXNT20 KNHC 180545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N27W TO 21N27W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
THE WAVE CONTINUES TO COINCIDE WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND A
MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE
WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N41W TO 19N40W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
A 1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N41W. IN ADDITION...WEAK
AND BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING IS NOTED ON GLOBAL MODEL DATA BETWEEN
37W-47W WITH 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FOCUSED IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-
14N BETWEEN 41W-44W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N76W TO 22N75W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM
NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS FOCUSED NEAR
12N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N
BETWEEN 71W-79W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-24N
BETWEEN 75W-79W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N16W TO
14N21W TO 12N30W TO 11N41W TO 10N49W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N49W TO 09N60W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 15W-24W...
AND FROM 07N-09N BETWEEN 24W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 28W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N98W THAT INFLUENCES
MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W THIS EVENING. WHILE SURFACE
RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 27N ACROSS THE BASIN...AMPLE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 18N-26N BETWEEN 92W-97W.
OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC
IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED
ALONG 27N THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD FOR
THE TAIL END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W IS BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS TO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN
75W-80W AT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS AND ACROSS
INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND FAR EASTERN PANAMA. THE
WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE BENEATH THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N79W. OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 13N W OF 80W...AND ACTIVE
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 10N IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 09N/10N...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES ARE PERSISTING GENERALLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 69W-79W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...CONDITIONS THIS EVENING REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 76W. VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE AND AN OVERALL DRYING TREND ALOFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH TRADES PERSISTING
AND THE USUAL POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY ON MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC NEAR 27N78W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SURFACE RIDGING
ALONG 27N. TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...GENERALLY
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS N OF 30N. LINGERING MOISTURE
AND CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 28N WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF 55W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS ANCHORED BY TWO 1020 MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 27N62W
AND 27N71W THAT ARE FORECAST TO MERGE WITHIN 24 HOURS. FARTHER
EAST...THE SURFACE RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
AS A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N32W
EXTENDING SW TO 23N46W THEN TO 21N51W AS A SURFACE TROUGH.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT...A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 30N42W THAT IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 37W-50W. FINALLY...ANOTHER
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC STEMMING FROM A
WEAK 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N22W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 180545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N27W TO 21N27W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
THE WAVE CONTINUES TO COINCIDE WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND A
MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE
WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N41W TO 19N40W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
A 1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N41W. IN ADDITION...WEAK
AND BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING IS NOTED ON GLOBAL MODEL DATA BETWEEN
37W-47W WITH 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FOCUSED IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-
14N BETWEEN 41W-44W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N76W TO 22N75W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM
NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS FOCUSED NEAR
12N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N
BETWEEN 71W-79W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-24N
BETWEEN 75W-79W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N16W TO
14N21W TO 12N30W TO 11N41W TO 10N49W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N49W TO 09N60W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 15W-24W...
AND FROM 07N-09N BETWEEN 24W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 28W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N98W THAT INFLUENCES
MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W THIS EVENING. WHILE SURFACE
RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 27N ACROSS THE BASIN...AMPLE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 18N-26N BETWEEN 92W-97W.
OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC
IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED
ALONG 27N THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD FOR
THE TAIL END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W IS BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS TO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN
75W-80W AT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS AND ACROSS
INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND FAR EASTERN PANAMA. THE
WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE BENEATH THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N79W. OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 13N W OF 80W...AND ACTIVE
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 10N IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 09N/10N...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES ARE PERSISTING GENERALLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 69W-79W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...CONDITIONS THIS EVENING REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 76W. VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE AND AN OVERALL DRYING TREND ALOFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH TRADES PERSISTING
AND THE USUAL POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY ON MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC NEAR 27N78W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SURFACE RIDGING
ALONG 27N. TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...GENERALLY
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS N OF 30N. LINGERING MOISTURE
AND CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 28N WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF 55W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS ANCHORED BY TWO 1020 MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 27N62W
AND 27N71W THAT ARE FORECAST TO MERGE WITHIN 24 HOURS. FARTHER
EAST...THE SURFACE RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
AS A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N32W
EXTENDING SW TO 23N46W THEN TO 21N51W AS A SURFACE TROUGH.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT...A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 30N42W THAT IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 37W-50W. FINALLY...ANOTHER
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC STEMMING FROM A
WEAK 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N22W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 180536
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT LUNES 18 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA DEBIL Y ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION ESTA ACTUALMENTE LOCALIZADA
ENTRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. LA ACTIVIDAD
DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADA ESTA LIMITADA...Y NO SE ESPERA NINGUN
DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO DE ESTE SISTEMA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.
DESPUES DE VARIOS DIAS...LAS CONDICIONES PUEDEN TORNARSE UN POCO MAS
FAVORABLES PARA DESARROLLO A MEDIDA QUE EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA
LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE A TRAVES DEL ATLANTICO TROPICAL CENTRAL.

* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR CANGIALOSI




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 180536
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT LUNES 18 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA DEBIL Y ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION ESTA ACTUALMENTE LOCALIZADA
ENTRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. LA ACTIVIDAD
DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADA ESTA LIMITADA...Y NO SE ESPERA NINGUN
DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO DE ESTE SISTEMA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.
DESPUES DE VARIOS DIAS...LAS CONDICIONES PUEDEN TORNARSE UN POCO MAS
FAVORABLES PARA DESARROLLO A MEDIDA QUE EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA
LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE A TRAVES DEL ATLANTICO TROPICAL CENTRAL.

* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR CANGIALOSI





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 180533
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on newly formed Tropical Depression Twelve-E,
located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days to the
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  Slow development of this system
is possible later this week while the low moves roughly parallel to
the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 180533
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on newly formed Tropical Depression Twelve-E,
located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days to the
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  Slow development of this system
is possible later this week while the low moves roughly parallel to
the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 180533
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on newly formed Tropical Depression Twelve-E,
located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days to the
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  Slow development of this system
is possible later this week while the low moves roughly parallel to
the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 180533
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on newly formed Tropical Depression Twelve-E,
located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days to the
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  Slow development of this system
is possible later this week while the low moves roughly parallel to
the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
ABNT20 KNHC 180531
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak and elongated area of low pressure is currently located
about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde
Islands.  The associated shower activity is limited, and significant
development of this system is not expected during the next couple of
days.  Beyond a couple of days, environmental conditions could
become a little more favorable for development when the system moves
slowly westward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
ABNT20 KNHC 180531
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak and elongated area of low pressure is currently located
about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde
Islands.  The associated shower activity is limited, and significant
development of this system is not expected during the next couple of
days.  Beyond a couple of days, environmental conditions could
become a little more favorable for development when the system moves
slowly westward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
ABNT20 KNHC 180531
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak and elongated area of low pressure is currently located
about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde
Islands.  The associated shower activity is limited, and significant
development of this system is not expected during the next couple of
days.  Beyond a couple of days, environmental conditions could
become a little more favorable for development when the system moves
slowly westward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
ABNT20 KNHC 180531
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak and elongated area of low pressure is currently located
about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde
Islands.  The associated shower activity is limited, and significant
development of this system is not expected during the next couple of
days.  Beyond a couple of days, environmental conditions could
become a little more favorable for development when the system moves
slowly westward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180250
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON AUG 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.5N 130.4W AT 18/0300
UTC OR ABOUT 1200 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...MOVING WSW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM
SW QUADRANT OF CENTER. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E IS CENTERED NEAR 16.1N
116.6W AT 18/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 550 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...MOVING W AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLE AND FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 110W AND
117W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH 09N83W TO 10N103W 16N113W...THEN CONTINUES
FROM 14N130W TO 12N135W TO 15N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN E OF
100W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH 30N135W TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS MAINTAINING
FAIRLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS TO THE SOUTH EXCEPT NEAR T.S. KARINA
AND TO THE NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW NEAR 16N115W. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THE BASIN WILL BECOME ACTIVE IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS MULTIPLE TROPICAL CYCLONES TRY TO DEVELOP. GAP WINDS
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE REGION N OF 20N W OF 100W WITH
MODERATE DRY STABLE AIR. SW FLOW INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG
WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER E CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N97W IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM S OF
AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 105W.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180250
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON AUG 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.5N 130.4W AT 18/0300
UTC OR ABOUT 1200 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...MOVING WSW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM
SW QUADRANT OF CENTER. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E IS CENTERED NEAR 16.1N
116.6W AT 18/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 550 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...MOVING W AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLE AND FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 110W AND
117W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH 09N83W TO 10N103W 16N113W...THEN CONTINUES
FROM 14N130W TO 12N135W TO 15N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN E OF
100W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH 30N135W TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS MAINTAINING
FAIRLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS TO THE SOUTH EXCEPT NEAR T.S. KARINA
AND TO THE NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW NEAR 16N115W. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THE BASIN WILL BECOME ACTIVE IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS MULTIPLE TROPICAL CYCLONES TRY TO DEVELOP. GAP WINDS
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE REGION N OF 20N W OF 100W WITH
MODERATE DRY STABLE AIR. SW FLOW INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG
WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER E CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N97W IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM S OF
AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 105W.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 180236
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...KARINA CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 130.4W
ABOUT 1380 MI...2220 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.4 WEST.  KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION WITH DECREASING FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 180236
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...KARINA CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 130.4W
ABOUT 1380 MI...2220 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.4 WEST.  KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION WITH DECREASING FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 180236
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0300 UTC MON AUG 18 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 130.4W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 130.4W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 130.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.0N 131.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.5N 133.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.4N 134.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.4N 134.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.5N 136.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 17.5N 135.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 130.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 180236
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0300 UTC MON AUG 18 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 130.4W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 130.4W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 130.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.0N 131.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.5N 133.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.4N 134.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.4N 134.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.5N 136.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 17.5N 135.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 130.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 180236
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0300 UTC MON AUG 18 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 130.4W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 130.4W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 130.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.0N 131.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.5N 133.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.4N 134.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.4N 134.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.5N 136.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 17.5N 135.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 130.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 180236
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0300 UTC MON AUG 18 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 130.4W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 130.4W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 130.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.0N 131.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.5N 133.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.4N 134.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.4N 134.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.5N 136.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 17.5N 135.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 130.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 180234
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0300 UTC MON AUG 18 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 116.6W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 116.6W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 116.2W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.3N 117.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.7N 118.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.6N 119.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.4N 119.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.8N 120.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 22.4N 121.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 26.5N 124.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 116.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 180234
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 116.6W
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.6
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H
...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 180234
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0300 UTC MON AUG 18 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 116.6W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 116.6W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 116.2W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.3N 117.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.7N 118.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.6N 119.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.4N 119.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.8N 120.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 22.4N 121.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 26.5N 124.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 116.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 180234
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 116.6W
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.6
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H
...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



000
AXNT20 KNHC 172340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N25W TO 11N27W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
CONVECTION DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS AT A MINIMUM AS
THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY NEAR THE AXIS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY DOES SHOW A LARGE MOISTURE AREA FROM 05N-20N E OF 27W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N39W TO 1011 MB LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N40W MOVING W AT 10 KT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM IN NW QUADRANT
OF THE LOW...HOWEVER SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR IS HELPING TO
SUPPRESS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE ALONG AND NEAR THE
WAVE AXIS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DOES SHOW A WELL
DEFINED MOISTURE AREA S OF 17N BETWEEN 35W AND 45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N74W TO 10N75W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. LIMITED
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WITH SOME ISOLATED TSTMS
NEAR THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE AXIS AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MOISTURE AREA S OF 23N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
16N16W TO LOW PRES NEAR 15N20W TO 11N27W TO 13N33W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 11N140W TO 09N50W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM NEAR 09N50W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
08N59W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240
NM SE OF THE AXIS E OF 23W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF 12N31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1019 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 27N87W EXTENDS AN
E TO W RIDGE TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. SCATTEROMETER AND
BUOY/SHIP DATA INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 0-2 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE GULF WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE-
S WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. LITTLE
CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 27N98W
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS TO THE SE OVER SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA NEAR 14N91W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE NE SIDE OF
THE ANTICYCLONE AND E-SE OF THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 27N W OF 91W. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS JUST E OF FLORIDA IN THE ATLANTIC
NEAR 27N8W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NW-W ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL
AND SW FLORIDA AND THE E CENTRAL GULF UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
OTHER THAN THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
DISCUSSED ABOVE...A FAIRLY BROAD PRES PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMAICA TO THE NW ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF CUBA...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN GUATEMALA NEAR 14N91W. FRESH
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND 7-11 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT
WILL BE THE TIGHTEST WHILE MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADES AND 3-6 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUES OVER HISPANIOLA
WITH ENHANCEMENT AND SUPPORT PROVIDED BY A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS
NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW
LOCATED TO THE SW-W OVER JAMAICA. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A PAIR OF 1021 MB SURFACE HIGHS ARE IN THE ATLC WITH ONE LOCATED
NEAR 27N58W AND THE OTHER NEAR 27N72W. THESE HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO MERGE NEAR 27N68W IN 24 HOURS. AN E TO W RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
ALONG 27N TO NEAR FORT PIERCE FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE LOCATED NEAR 28N47W EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO
THE SW TO NEAR PUERTO RICO. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
31N69W TO 29N77W SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE AXIS. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTED BY A MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N33W TO 23N46W
WITH A REMNANT TROUGH CONTINUING SW TO 22N51W. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE AXIS. 1014 MB
LOW PRES IS TO THE W NEAR 30N42W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM
THE LOW TO 26N44W. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
NEAR THESE FEATURES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED
NEAR THE COAST OF MOROCCO AT 24N15W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SW-W TO 14N45W. A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BETWEEN THE
TWO UPPER LEVEL RIDGES NEAR 17N51W. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH
FROM 13N TO 20N E OF 55W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS WILL
ALSO BRIEFLY PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG N OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3-5 FT ACROSS THE SW N ATLC EXCEPT 1-3 FT
NEAR AND ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS AND INSIDE THE BAHAMAS...WITH A
SET OF NE-E SWELL BUILDING SEAS TO 5-8 FT FROM THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WHERE TRADE WINDS WILL BE
THE STRONGEST WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 172334
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT DOMINGO 17 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADA A UN AREA AMPLIA DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADA ENTRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE
ACTUALMENTE ES MINIMO. NO SE ESPERA NINGUN DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO
DE ESTE SISTEMA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DOS DIAS...PERO LAS CONDICIONES
PUEDEN TORNARSE UN POCO MAS FAVORABLES PARA MAS TARDE EN LA SEMANA A
MEDIDA QUE EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE A TRAVES
DEL ATLANTICO TROPICAL CENTRAL.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIO...30 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 172334
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT DOMINGO 17 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADA A UN AREA AMPLIA DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADA ENTRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE
ACTUALMENTE ES MINIMO. NO SE ESPERA NINGUN DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO
DE ESTE SISTEMA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DOS DIAS...PERO LAS CONDICIONES
PUEDEN TORNARSE UN POCO MAS FAVORABLES PARA MAS TARDE EN LA SEMANA A
MEDIDA QUE EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE A TRAVES
DEL ATLANTICO TROPICAL CENTRAL.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIO...30 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH





000
ABNT20 KNHC 172332
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with an elongated area of low pressure
located about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde
Islands is currently minimal.  No significant development is
expected during the next two days, but conditions could become a
little more favorable by later in the week as the system moves
slowly westward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 172332
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Satellite images indicate that the large low pressure system located
about 620 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to become better organized.  This system is
expected to become a tropical depression later this evening or
early tomorrow while it moves generally westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An area of low pressure could form in several days a few hundred
miles south or southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  Some
development of this system is expected by later this week while the
low moves roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 172332
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Satellite images indicate that the large low pressure system located
about 620 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to become better organized.  This system is
expected to become a tropical depression later this evening or
early tomorrow while it moves generally westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An area of low pressure could form in several days a few hundred
miles south or southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  Some
development of this system is expected by later this week while the
low moves roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 172332
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Satellite images indicate that the large low pressure system located
about 620 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to become better organized.  This system is
expected to become a tropical depression later this evening or
early tomorrow while it moves generally westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An area of low pressure could form in several days a few hundred
miles south or southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  Some
development of this system is expected by later this week while the
low moves roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 172332
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Satellite images indicate that the large low pressure system located
about 620 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to become better organized.  This system is
expected to become a tropical depression later this evening or
early tomorrow while it moves generally westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An area of low pressure could form in several days a few hundred
miles south or southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  Some
development of this system is expected by later this week while the
low moves roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ABNT20 KNHC 172332
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with an elongated area of low pressure
located about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde
Islands is currently minimal.  No significant development is
expected during the next two days, but conditions could become a
little more favorable by later in the week as the system moves
slowly westward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ACPN50 PHFO 172331
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SUN AUG 17 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST HILO...
HAWAII...WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THIS
SYSTEM REMAIN DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...40 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII...WAS MOVING WEST SLOWLY. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$





000
ACPN50 PHFO 172331
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SUN AUG 17 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST HILO...
HAWAII...WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THIS
SYSTEM REMAIN DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...40 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII...WAS MOVING WEST SLOWLY. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$





000
ACPN50 PHFO 172331
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SUN AUG 17 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST HILO...
HAWAII...WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THIS
SYSTEM REMAIN DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...40 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII...WAS MOVING WEST SLOWLY. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$





000
ACPN50 PHFO 172331
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SUN AUG 17 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST HILO...
HAWAII...WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THIS
SYSTEM REMAIN DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...40 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII...WAS MOVING WEST SLOWLY. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$





000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172202
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN AUG 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 18.0N 129.5W AT 17/2100
UTC MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF
CENTER OVER W QUADRANT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A BROAD 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N115W MOVING WNW AT 10
KT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SW
SEMICIRCLE AND FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 110W AND 117W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
AND A THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMING
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO LOW PRES NEAR 16N115W
1007 MB TO 17N122W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 14N130W TO 15N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN
80W AND 105W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH 30N133W TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS MAINTAINING
FAIRLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS TO THE SOUTH EXCEPT NEAR T.S. KARINA
AND TO THE NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW NEAR 16N115W. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THE BASIN WILL BECOME ACTIVE IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS MULTIPLE TROPICAL CYCLONES TRY TO DEVELOP. GAP WINDS
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE REGION N OF 20N W OF 100W WITH
MODERATE DRY STABLE AIR. SW FLOW INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG
WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER E CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N97W IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM S OF
AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 105W.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172202
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN AUG 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 18.0N 129.5W AT 17/2100
UTC MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF
CENTER OVER W QUADRANT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A BROAD 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N115W MOVING WNW AT 10
KT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SW
SEMICIRCLE AND FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 110W AND 117W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
AND A THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMING
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO LOW PRES NEAR 16N115W
1007 MB TO 17N122W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 14N130W TO 15N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN
80W AND 105W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH 30N133W TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS MAINTAINING
FAIRLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS TO THE SOUTH EXCEPT NEAR T.S. KARINA
AND TO THE NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW NEAR 16N115W. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THE BASIN WILL BECOME ACTIVE IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS MULTIPLE TROPICAL CYCLONES TRY TO DEVELOP. GAP WINDS
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE REGION N OF 20N W OF 100W WITH
MODERATE DRY STABLE AIR. SW FLOW INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG
WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER E CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N97W IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM S OF
AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 105W.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
WTPZ21 KNHC 172039
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
2100 UTC SUN AUG 17 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 129.5W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 129.5W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 129.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.3N 130.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.7N 132.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.3N 133.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.3N 134.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.4N 135.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 16.7N 135.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 17.1N 134.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 129.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





000
WTPZ21 KNHC 172039
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
2100 UTC SUN AUG 17 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 129.5W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 129.5W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 129.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.3N 130.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.7N 132.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.3N 133.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.3N 134.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.4N 135.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 16.7N 135.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 17.1N 134.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 129.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ31 KNHC 172039
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...KARINA TURNS TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 129.5W
ABOUT 1320 MI...2120 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.5 WEST.  KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H.  THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ31 KNHC 172039
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...KARINA TURNS TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 129.5W
ABOUT 1320 MI...2120 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.5 WEST.  KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H.  THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 171901
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 17 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

CORRECTION: PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS A MEDIO

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADA A UN AREA AMPLIA DE BAJA PRESION
CENTRALIZADA ENTRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE NO
SE HA ORGANIZADO MEJOR DESDE AYER. NO SE ESPERA NINGUN DESARROLLO
SIGNIFICATIVO DE ESTE SISTEMA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DOS DIAS...PERO
LAS CONDICIONES PUEDEN TORNARSE UN POCO MAS FAVORABLES PARA MEDIADOS
DE SEMANA A MEDIDA QUE EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE
A TRAVES DEL ATLANTICO TROPICAL CENTRAL.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIO...30 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 171901
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 17 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

CORRECTION: PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS A MEDIO

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADA A UN AREA AMPLIA DE BAJA PRESION
CENTRALIZADA ENTRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE NO
SE HA ORGANIZADO MEJOR DESDE AYER. NO SE ESPERA NINGUN DESARROLLO
SIGNIFICATIVO DE ESTE SISTEMA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DOS DIAS...PERO
LAS CONDICIONES PUEDEN TORNARSE UN POCO MAS FAVORABLES PARA MEDIADOS
DE SEMANA A MEDIDA QUE EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE
A TRAVES DEL ATLANTICO TROPICAL CENTRAL.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIO...30 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA




000
ABNT20 KNHC 171858
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Corrected five-day category to medium.

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with an elongated area of low pressure
centered midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde
Islands has not become any better organized since yesterday. No
significant development is expected during the next two days, but
conditions could become a little more favorable by later in the week
as the system moves slowly westward across the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABNT20 KNHC 171858
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Corrected five-day category to medium.

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with an elongated area of low pressure
centered midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde
Islands has not become any better organized since yesterday. No
significant development is expected during the next two days, but
conditions could become a little more favorable by later in the week
as the system moves slowly westward across the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABNT20 KNHC 171858
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Corrected five-day category to medium.

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with an elongated area of low pressure
centered midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde
Islands has not become any better organized since yesterday. No
significant development is expected during the next two days, but
conditions could become a little more favorable by later in the week
as the system moves slowly westward across the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABNT20 KNHC 171858
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Corrected five-day category to medium.

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with an elongated area of low pressure
centered midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde
Islands has not become any better organized since yesterday. No
significant development is expected during the next two days, but
conditions could become a little more favorable by later in the week
as the system moves slowly westward across the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 171742
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 17 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADA A UN AREA AMPLIA DE BAJA PRESION
CENTRALIZADA ENTRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE NO
SE HA ORGANIZADO MEJOR DESDE AYER. NO SE ESPERA NINGUN DESARROLLO
SIGNIFICATIVO DE ESTE SISTEMA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DOS DIAS...PERO
LAS CONDICIONES PUEDEN TORNARSE UN POCO MAS FAVORABLES PARA MEDIADOS
DE SEMANA A MEDIDA QUE EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE
A TRAVES DEL ATLANTICO TROPICAL CENTRAL.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...30 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 171742
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 17 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADA A UN AREA AMPLIA DE BAJA PRESION
CENTRALIZADA ENTRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE NO
SE HA ORGANIZADO MEJOR DESDE AYER. NO SE ESPERA NINGUN DESARROLLO
SIGNIFICATIVO DE ESTE SISTEMA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DOS DIAS...PERO
LAS CONDICIONES PUEDEN TORNARSE UN POCO MAS FAVORABLES PARA MEDIADOS
DE SEMANA A MEDIDA QUE EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE
A TRAVES DEL ATLANTICO TROPICAL CENTRAL.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...30 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 171742
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 17 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADA A UN AREA AMPLIA DE BAJA PRESION
CENTRALIZADA ENTRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE NO
SE HA ORGANIZADO MEJOR DESDE AYER. NO SE ESPERA NINGUN DESARROLLO
SIGNIFICATIVO DE ESTE SISTEMA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DOS DIAS...PERO
LAS CONDICIONES PUEDEN TORNARSE UN POCO MAS FAVORABLES PARA MEDIADOS
DE SEMANA A MEDIDA QUE EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE
A TRAVES DEL ATLANTICO TROPICAL CENTRAL.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...30 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 171742
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 17 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADA A UN AREA AMPLIA DE BAJA PRESION
CENTRALIZADA ENTRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE NO
SE HA ORGANIZADO MEJOR DESDE AYER. NO SE ESPERA NINGUN DESARROLLO
SIGNIFICATIVO DE ESTE SISTEMA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DOS DIAS...PERO
LAS CONDICIONES PUEDEN TORNARSE UN POCO MAS FAVORABLES PARA MEDIADOS
DE SEMANA A MEDIDA QUE EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE
A TRAVES DEL ATLANTICO TROPICAL CENTRAL.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...30 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA




000
ACPN50 PHFO 171730
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SUN AUG 17 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 930 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST HILO...
HAWAII...WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS
SYSTEM REMAIN DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...60 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII...WAS MOVING WEST SLOWLY. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$





000
ACPN50 PHFO 171730
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SUN AUG 17 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 930 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST HILO...
HAWAII...WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS
SYSTEM REMAIN DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...60 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII...WAS MOVING WEST SLOWLY. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$





000
ACPN50 PHFO 171730
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SUN AUG 17 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 930 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST HILO...
HAWAII...WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS
SYSTEM REMAIN DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...60 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII...WAS MOVING WEST SLOWLY. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$





000
ACPN50 PHFO 171730
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SUN AUG 17 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 930 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST HILO...
HAWAII...WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS
SYSTEM REMAIN DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...60 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII...WAS MOVING WEST SLOWLY. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171728
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located a little more than a thousand miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Satellite images indicate that the large low pressure system located
about 600 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula continues to show signs of organization. Only a
slight increase in thunderstorm activity would result in the
formation of a tropical depression later today or tonight while the
low moves generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171728
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located a little more than a thousand miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Satellite images indicate that the large low pressure system located
about 600 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula continues to show signs of organization. Only a
slight increase in thunderstorm activity would result in the
formation of a tropical depression later today or tonight while the
low moves generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171728
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located a little more than a thousand miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Satellite images indicate that the large low pressure system located
about 600 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula continues to show signs of organization. Only a
slight increase in thunderstorm activity would result in the
formation of a tropical depression later today or tonight while the
low moves generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171728
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located a little more than a thousand miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Satellite images indicate that the large low pressure system located
about 600 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula continues to show signs of organization. Only a
slight increase in thunderstorm activity would result in the
formation of a tropical depression later today or tonight while the
low moves generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 171720
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with an elongated area of low pressure
centered midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde
Islands has not become any better organized since yesterday. No
significant development is expected during the next two days, but
conditions could become a little more favorable by later in the week
as the system moves slowly westward across the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
ABNT20 KNHC 171720
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with an elongated area of low pressure
centered midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde
Islands has not become any better organized since yesterday. No
significant development is expected during the next two days, but
conditions could become a little more favorable by later in the week
as the system moves slowly westward across the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
AXNT20 KNHC 171653
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N24W TO 13N25W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. A 1011 MB
LOW IS FURTHER E OF THE WAVE AXIS AT 15N20W. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MOISTURE AREA FROM 5N-
21N E OF 29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 26W-31W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N39W TO 12N39W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOISTURE AREA S OF 17N. THE
SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR N OF 17N
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. A 1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE
AXIS AT 12N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW
FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 40W-41W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N70W TO 10N72W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MOISTURE AREA S
OF 22N. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A LARGE 700 MB TROUGH.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 70W-
71W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
16N16W TO 15N20W TO 13N25W TO 13N30W TO 12N39W TO 7N52W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 7N52W AND
CONTINUES TO 7N59W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 17W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 27N. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER
THE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
THE NE GULF FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 83W-92W. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 82W-
85W. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 94W-97W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR 23N96W. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO BE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 10-25
KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER COSTA RICA...AND S NICARAGUA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N83W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N82W. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS N
OF 12N W OF 83W. DRY AIR SAL IS ALSO SUPPRESSING MOST CONVECTION
E AND W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY OVER N HISPANIOLA DUE
TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N61W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 31N35W TO 23N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. A 1014 MB LOW IS FURTHER W NEAR 30N42W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 27N48W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W.
ISOLATED MODERATE  CONVECTION IS N OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 27N-30N
BETWEEN 73W-79W. ALSO OF NOTE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 16N50W. DRY AIR SAL IS N OF THE TROPICAL
WAVES E OF 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 171653
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N24W TO 13N25W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. A 1011 MB
LOW IS FURTHER E OF THE WAVE AXIS AT 15N20W. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MOISTURE AREA FROM 5N-
21N E OF 29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 26W-31W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N39W TO 12N39W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOISTURE AREA S OF 17N. THE
SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR N OF 17N
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. A 1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE
AXIS AT 12N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW
FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 40W-41W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N70W TO 10N72W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MOISTURE AREA S
OF 22N. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A LARGE 700 MB TROUGH.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 70W-
71W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
16N16W TO 15N20W TO 13N25W TO 13N30W TO 12N39W TO 7N52W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 7N52W AND
CONTINUES TO 7N59W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 17W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 27N. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER
THE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
THE NE GULF FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 83W-92W. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 82W-
85W. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 94W-97W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR 23N96W. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO BE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 10-25
KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER COSTA RICA...AND S NICARAGUA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N83W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N82W. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS N
OF 12N W OF 83W. DRY AIR SAL IS ALSO SUPPRESSING MOST CONVECTION
E AND W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY OVER N HISPANIOLA DUE
TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N61W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 31N35W TO 23N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. A 1014 MB LOW IS FURTHER W NEAR 30N42W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 27N48W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W.
ISOLATED MODERATE  CONVECTION IS N OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 27N-30N
BETWEEN 73W-79W. ALSO OF NOTE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 16N50W. DRY AIR SAL IS N OF THE TROPICAL
WAVES E OF 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 171653
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N24W TO 13N25W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. A 1011 MB
LOW IS FURTHER E OF THE WAVE AXIS AT 15N20W. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MOISTURE AREA FROM 5N-
21N E OF 29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 26W-31W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N39W TO 12N39W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOISTURE AREA S OF 17N. THE
SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR N OF 17N
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. A 1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE
AXIS AT 12N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW
FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 40W-41W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N70W TO 10N72W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MOISTURE AREA S
OF 22N. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A LARGE 700 MB TROUGH.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 70W-
71W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
16N16W TO 15N20W TO 13N25W TO 13N30W TO 12N39W TO 7N52W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 7N52W AND
CONTINUES TO 7N59W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 17W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 27N. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER
THE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
THE NE GULF FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 83W-92W. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 82W-
85W. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 94W-97W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR 23N96W. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO BE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 10-25
KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER COSTA RICA...AND S NICARAGUA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N83W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N82W. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS N
OF 12N W OF 83W. DRY AIR SAL IS ALSO SUPPRESSING MOST CONVECTION
E AND W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY OVER N HISPANIOLA DUE
TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N61W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 31N35W TO 23N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. A 1014 MB LOW IS FURTHER W NEAR 30N42W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 27N48W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W.
ISOLATED MODERATE  CONVECTION IS N OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 27N-30N
BETWEEN 73W-79W. ALSO OF NOTE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 16N50W. DRY AIR SAL IS N OF THE TROPICAL
WAVES E OF 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 171653
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N24W TO 13N25W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. A 1011 MB
LOW IS FURTHER E OF THE WAVE AXIS AT 15N20W. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MOISTURE AREA FROM 5N-
21N E OF 29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 26W-31W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N39W TO 12N39W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOISTURE AREA S OF 17N. THE
SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR N OF 17N
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. A 1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE
AXIS AT 12N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW
FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 40W-41W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N70W TO 10N72W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MOISTURE AREA S
OF 22N. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A LARGE 700 MB TROUGH.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 70W-
71W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
16N16W TO 15N20W TO 13N25W TO 13N30W TO 12N39W TO 7N52W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 7N52W AND
CONTINUES TO 7N59W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 17W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 27N. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER
THE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
THE NE GULF FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 83W-92W. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 82W-
85W. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 94W-97W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR 23N96W. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO BE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 10-25
KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER COSTA RICA...AND S NICARAGUA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N83W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N82W. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS N
OF 12N W OF 83W. DRY AIR SAL IS ALSO SUPPRESSING MOST CONVECTION
E AND W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY OVER N HISPANIOLA DUE
TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N61W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 31N35W TO 23N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. A 1014 MB LOW IS FURTHER W NEAR 30N42W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 27N48W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W.
ISOLATED MODERATE  CONVECTION IS N OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 27N-30N
BETWEEN 73W-79W. ALSO OF NOTE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 16N50W. DRY AIR SAL IS N OF THE TROPICAL
WAVES E OF 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



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