000
ACPN50 PHFO 251945
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST WED NOV 25 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON OFFICIALLY ENDS ON NOVEMBER 30.
THE FINAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OF THE SEASON WILL BE ISSUED AT
10 PM ON NOVEMBER 30. WE WILL RESUME ISSUING OUTLOOKS ON JUNE 1 OF
NEXT YEAR.
$$
000
AXNT20 KNHC 251751
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 25 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N14W 6N21W 5N30W 6N45W 7N54W.
AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS SEEN OVER THE ITCZ FROM 3N TO
9N BETWEEN 16W AND 25W...BRINGING WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS WITH
A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THIS REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS SEEN NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 7N TO 11N
BETWEEN 30W AND 42W. MODERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN
THIS REGION. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 16N44W
TO 6N46W. THIS TROUGH IS ONLY CREATING A FEW MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 42W AND 45W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND INTO THE GULF NEAR 30N87W CONTINUING SW TO 25N90W.
THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THAT DIPS ACROSS THE NW
GULF WATERS TO 24N95W. SE OF THE COLD FRONT...CYCLOGENESIS HAS
TAKEN PLACE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A 1013 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 25N88W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE WESTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN MEXICO GULF COAST TO
NEAR 18N94W. NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE GULF W OF 90W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE SURFACE LOW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR FORT MYERS AND
INTO THE W ATLC WATERS. THIS FRONT FALLS UNDER A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE N OF 21N E OF 88W...EXTENDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE W ATLC WATERS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 75W TO
83W. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
ACROSS WESTERN CUBA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT/LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND SELY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE SE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE INCREASED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA...BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THAT REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WRN ATLC FROM 31N80W TO
CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA CONTINUING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND W ATLC WATERS N OF 23N W OF 76W. THIS
ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 72W
TO BEYOND 32N72W. IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...A 1015 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 29N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 26N53W TO
23N58W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN
47W-54W. THIS LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N59W TO 25N51W.
FARTHER EAST... A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N37W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG 30N40W TO 28N45W AND INTO THE
1015 MB LOW NEAR 29N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 200 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS LOW AND
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 39W N OF 28N.
$$
GARCIA/HUFFMAN
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251743
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST WED NOV 25 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
ABNT20 KNHC 251743
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST WED NOV 25 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251601
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED NOV 25 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO 05N95W TO 08N113W TO 09N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 05N TO
11N TO THE E OF 85W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF 07N89W AND ALSO WITHIN
120 NM OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 140W.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE AT 10N142W HAS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING
N TO A CREST NEAR 35N140W. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY N OF 15N W
OF 125W. A TROPICAL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED AT 04N123W
WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING NNE TO A CREST ALONG 30N NEAR
110W. ABUNDANT UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED UNDER THIS RIDGE...
ROUGHLY FROM 15N TO 28N BETWEEN 123W AND 105W. BROAD UPPER
RIDGING DOMINATES THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 15N TO THE E OF 90W AND
IS ENHANCING THE ITCZ CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...WITH THE
DEBRIS MOISTURE NOW SPREADING N OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AN
UPPER CYCLONE OVER CALIFORNIA HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING S THROUGH
ANOTHER SMALL UPPER CYCLONE AT 26N121W WITH THE TROUGH
CONTINUING SW TO NEAR 12N126W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING
E ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF
DRY UPPER AIR S OF 23N BETWEEN 103W AND 93W SUPPRESSING ITCZ
CONVECTION.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA W OF 105W WITH
NE TRADES AT 20 TO 25 KT S OF THE RIDGE. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS N OF THE AREA FRI INCREASING THE AREA OF NE TRADES.
SEAS TO 12 FT ARE CURRENTLY NOTED SW OF THE RIDGE WITH ANOTHER
SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THU MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
16 FT. NW SWELLS ARE COVERING THE ENTIRE AREA W OF 112W.
...GAP WINDS...
EASTERLY TRADES IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN SURGES TO 20 KT
IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NW CONUS COMBINED WITH LOW
PRESSURE W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS DIMINISHING THE WINDS BELOW 20 KT.
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO 20 TO 25 KT THIS MORNING IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FURTHER INCREASE TO A GALE AROUND
SUNSET TODAY AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO A MINIMAL STORM EARLY
FRI.
$$
NELSON
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 251525
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
SUPER TYPHOON NIDA (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262009
200 AM CHST THU NOV 26 2009
...NIDA NOW A SUPER TYPHOON...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...THE EYE OF SUPER TYPHOON NIDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 141.9 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 195 MILES WEST OF GUAM AND
360 MILES NORTHEAST OF YAP.
SUPER TYPHOON NIDA IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT AROUND 14 MPH. NIDA IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING IN THE SAME DIRECTION BUT SLOW DOWN
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 175 MPH. SUPER TYPHOON
NIDA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY A LITTLE BIT MORE DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 100 AM POSITION...LATITUDE 13.1 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 141.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 175 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 800 AM CHST.
$$
MCELROY
000
ACPN50 PHFO 251345
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST WED NOV 25 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON OFFICIALLY ENDS ON NOVEMBER 30.
THE FINAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OF THE SEASON WILL BE ISSUED AT
10 PM ON NOVEMBER 30. WE WILL RESUME ISSUING OUTLOOKS ON JUNE 1 OF
NEXT YEAR.
$$
H LAU
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251138
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST WED NOV 25 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 251138
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MIERCOLES 25 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR CANGIALOSI/PASCH
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251138
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST WED NOV 25 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 251138
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MIERCOLES 25 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR CANGIALOSI/PASCH
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
AXNT20 KNHC 251136
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 25 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
7N11W 6N35W 8N44W...INTO NORTHERN GUYANA NEAR 7N60W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 19W AND
25W...AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 10N
BETWEEN 10W AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING PUSHED
NORTHEASTWARD BY THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IN THE AREA FROM 10N
TO 25N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N41W
9N44W 4N46W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES THE ITCZ.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO LOUISIANA
TO THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 26N96W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA NEAR 21N96W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR
22N...CURVING TO 26N103W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 92W
AND THE MEXICO GULF COAST. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER NORTHEASTWARD TO FLORIDA NEAR
29N82W AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 31N78W. A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 80W
AND 86W. DENSE OVERCAST CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 90W.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA...TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 78W...IN THE
AREA OF A LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN
COASTAL COLOMBIA TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF NICARAGUA.
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 18N TO 21N
BETWEEN 83W AND 85W...ARE IN AN AREA OF BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS
SENDING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM COLOMBIA
AND PANAMA TO JAMAICA...AND THEN THE FLOW CURVES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALREADY IS AFFECTING
AND HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF
20N BETWEEN 60W AND THE EASTERN U.S.A. COAST. ONE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N60W TO
24N52W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N TO 29N
BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
32N44W TO 28N44W TO 15N42W TOWARD THE ITCZ NEAR 10N41W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 30N38W 28N41W 27N45W 25N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 43W AND 44W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N39W
TO 28N50W...TO A SECOND 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 29N53W...BEYOND 32N58W.
$$
MT
000
ABNT20 KNHC 251136
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST WED NOV 25 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251003
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED NOV 25 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0815 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO 08N87W TO 05N97W TO 07N110W TO
06N116W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS AND 170 NM S OF AXIS E OF
89W.
...DISCUSSION...
LIMITED ITCZ CONVECTION OVER THE W PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS RESULTED IN A WEAKENED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS HAS ENABLED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO PROGRESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY
CENTERED NEAR 121W. THE MAIN AFFECT OF THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN TO
WEAKEN THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA...AND BRING A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF STRONG TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE W PART
OF THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE 1025 MB CENTERED
NEAR 35N131W HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY SINCE LAST NIGHT AND WINDSAT
AND ASCAT INDICATE A SMALLER AREA OF STRONG TRADES THAN THE PAST
SEVERAL NIGHTS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE THU...THEN ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
MOVE N OF THE AREA ON FRI. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES BEFORE INCREASING IN SIZE ON FRI. SEAS UP
TO 12 FT REMAIN IN THE W PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO
LINGERING NW SWELLS. ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL HAS
BEEN GENERATED BEHIND STRONG LOW PRESSURE 973 MB IN THE N
PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 51N143W AT 06 UTC. THESE LONG PERIOD SWELLS
WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THU
MORNING WITH SEAS TO 16 FT POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NW PORTION.
...GAP WINDS...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWIND FLOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS HELPING
FOR NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. THE WINDS ARE ENHANCED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION FROM
DRAINAGE FLOW. WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWIND FLOW CONTINUING
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER IDAHO COMBINED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...THE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...IS MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND FRESH TO
STRONG NW TO N WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DECREASE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO WEAKEN AND
SHIFT SE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS...WHICH WILL BRING A
DECREASE IN THE WINDS.
ANOTHER TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO START TONIGHT AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE S GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS
WILL BECOME FRESH TO STRONG THIS MORNING...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT.
$$
AL
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 250946
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON NIDA (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262009
746 PM CHST WED NOV 25 2009
...TYPHOON NIDA CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 700 PM CHST...0900Z...THE EYE OF TYPHOON NIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.7 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM AND
355 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF YAP.
TYPHOON NIDA IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT AROUND 12 MPH. LITTLE CHANGE IN
MOTION IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 145 MPH. NIDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROBABLY BECOMING A SUPER
TYPHOON LATER TONIGHT. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40
MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 700 PM POSITION...LATITUDE 12.0 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 142.7 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 145 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM CHST THURSDAY MORNING.
$$
STANKO
000
WTPQ81 PGUM 250946
HLSPQ1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON NIDA (26W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
746 PM CHST WED NOV 25 2009
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON ULITHI AND FAIS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
AT 200 PM CHST...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR FAIS AND ULITHI WAS
CANCELED.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.7 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 265 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF FARAULEP
170 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM
255 MILES NORTHEAST OF ULITHI AND
215 MILES NORTHEAST OF FAIS.
TYPHOON NIDA IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. LITTLE CHANGE IN MOTION
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
145 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE
CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES
FROM THE CENTER.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TYPHOON NIDA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY SOUTHWEST OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS
AND MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM FARAULEP. NIDA REMAINS ON A NORTHWEST
PATH. SINCE THE TYPHOON CENTER IS ALREADY WELL NORTH OF FAIS AND
ULITHI...THE LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGING WINDS IS NOW ESSENTIALLY ZERO SO
THE WATCHES HAVE BEEN CANCELED.
...ULITHI AND FAIS...
.POST-STORM PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALTHOUGH THE TYPHOON IS MOVING AWAY SOME STORM EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT FAIS AND ULITHI THROUGH THURSDAY. FRESH TO STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY SEAS WITH HIGH SURF ARE LIKELY. REMAIN IN SAFE
SHELTER AWAY FROM THE OCEAN. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL
UNTIL AFTER THE SEAS SUBSIDE.
.NEXT UPDATE...
THIS WILL BE THE LAST LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FOR TYPHOON NIDA.
$$
STANKO
000
ACPN50 PHFO 250745
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 PM HST TUE NOV 24 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON OFFICIALLY ENDS ON NOVEMBER 30.
THE FINAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OF THE SEASON WILL BE ISSUED AT
10 PM ON NOVEMBER 30. WE WILL RESUME ISSUING OUTLOOKS ON JUNE 1 OF
NEXT YEAR.
$$
000
AXNT20 KNHC 250611
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED NOV 25 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
7N12W 6N30W 8N41W...INTO NORTHERN GUYANA NEAR 7N60W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND
13W...FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 17W AND 27W...FROM 10N TO 11N
BETWEEN 34W AND 35W...AND FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 41W AND 43W.
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING PUSHED NORTHEASTWARD BY THE UPPER
LEVEL WIND FLOW IN THE AREA FROM 10N TO 24N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
37W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 41W/42W FROM 4N TO 14N. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 41W AND 43W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A. TO THE
LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST TO THE MEXICO COAST AT 20N. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA TO THE MEXICO COAST ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN 20W AND THE
TEXAS BORDER. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA
INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO A LOCATION THAT IS
ABOUT 60 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
THAT IS NEAR 22N94W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE MEXICO COAST
FROM 20N TO 25N. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN
INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND FROM THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 25N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 91W.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA...TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 78W...IN THE
AREA OF A LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN
COASTAL COLOMBIA TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF NICARAGUA.
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTH OF
17N TO THE WEST OF 84W ARE IN AN AREA OF BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS
SENDING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM COLOMBIA
AND PANAMA TO JAMAICA...AND THEN THE FLOW CURVES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALREADY IS AFFECTING
AND HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF
20N BETWEEN 60W AND THE EASTERN U.S.A. COAST. ONE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N61W TO 30N57W
TO 24N51W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO 28N
BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 32N44W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 29N46W TO 14N43W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND
47W...AND FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W.
$$
MT
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 250557
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
100 AM EST MIERCOLES 25 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABNT20 KNHC 250527
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST WED NOV 25 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 250525
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PST TUE NOV 24 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 250350 CCA
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON NIDA (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262009
200 PM CHST WED NOV 25 2009
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH CANCELLED FOR FAIS AND ULITHI...
AS OF 1 PM CHST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NO IN EFFECT FOR FAIS
AND ULITHI. THIS MEANS NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT.
AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE EYE OF TYPHOON NIDA WAS LOCATED BY GUAM
RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.4 DEGREES
EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM AND
380 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF YAP.
TYPHOON NIDA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 12 MPH. LITTLE
CHANGE IN MOTION IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND REMAIN WEST OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 115 MPH. NIDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 100 PM POSITION...LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 143.4 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 115 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM TONIGHT.
$$
MUNDELL
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250340
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED NOV 25 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS ANALYZED FROM 08N79W TO 08N86W TO 05N98W TO 08N110W TO
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 120
NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 109W.
...DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N117W TO
21N126W TO 17N135W WHICH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND WILL CUTOFF
JUST OFF THE BAJA COAST NEAR 26N115W BY EARLY THU AS IT
ENCOUNTERS AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE U.S. ROCKIES TO
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL INITIALLY HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER HOWEVER IT WILL RESULT IN A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA AS WELL AS OVER DOWNSTREAM/
ADJACENT AREAS. ANOTHER MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED NW
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 40N147W TO 34N166W. THIS TROUGH WILL
PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF OUR AREA
LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI WITH N-NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20
TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SWATH OF THESE STRONGER WINDS
WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE WATERS AS A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BETWEEN DEEP HIGH PRES TO OUR N AND
LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. IN ADDITION...A NEW SET OF
NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT AND LONG PERIOD SEAS WILL
BUILD UP TO 16 FT BY FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...EARLIER ASCAT AND WINDSAT PASSES CONTINUED TO SHOW A
LARGE SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE DISCUSSION
AREA MAINLY FROM 14N TO 21N W OF 128W. THESE WINDS ARE SOUTH OF
A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 35N131W AT 00 UTC. A
2222 UTC JASON ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT IN
THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES...ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THESE
SEAS ARE RELATED TO PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD NW SWELL.
STRONG DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG AND JUST
INLAND OF THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA DUE TO AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE INITIALIZATION AND CONVERGENCE WITH INLAND TOPOGRAPHIC
FEATURES. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOW GRADUALLY PUSHING W AND OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE WEAKENING AS LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS BECOME MORE
PREDOMINANT. TO THE W...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR
08N88W. CONVECTION THAT HAD EARLIER DEVELOPED AROUND THIS
FEATURE HAS SINCE DISSIPATED AS MORE STABLE AND DRY AIR BECOMES
ADVECTED INTO THE CIRCULATION AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY.
...GAP WINDS...
NE TO E WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING WATERS MAINLY DUE TO DRAINAGE
FLOW OFF THE CENTRAL AMERICA COAST. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
NW TO N WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 28N CONTINUE TO BE
IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE
BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRES ALONG THE COAST OF THE E GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND A HIGH PRES
RIDGE W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN AND THESE STRONG
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 36-42 HOURS AND
THEN WILL DIMINISH AS THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES.
A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE S GULF OF MEXICO
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THIS WILL ENHANCE GAP WIND FLOW
FROM THE S GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WHERE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
CAN BE EXPECTED BY WED EVENTUALLY REACHING GALE FORCE LEVEL BY
WED NIGHT.
$$
LEWITSKY
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 250300
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON NIDA (26W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262009
200 PM CHST WED NOV 25 2009
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH CANCELLED FOR FAIS AND ULITHI...
AS OF 1 PM CHST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NO IN EFFECT FOR FAIS
AND ULITHI. THIS MEANS NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT.
AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE EYE OF TYPHOON NIDA WAS LOCATED BY GUAM
RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.4 DEGREES
EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM AND
380 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF YAP.
TYPHOON NIDA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 12 MPH. LITTLE
CHANGE IN MOTION IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND REMAIN WEST OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 115 MPH. NIDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 100 PM POSITION...LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 143.4 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 115 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM TONIGHT.
$$
MUNDELL
000
ACPN50 PHFO 250148
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST TUE NOV 24 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON OFFICIALLY ENDS ON NOVEMBER 30.
THE FINAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OF THE SEASON WILL BE ISSUED AT
10 PM ON NOVEMBER 30. WE WILL RESUME ISSUING OUTLOOKS ON JUNE 1 OF
NEXT YEAR.
$$
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 250055
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
700 PM EST MARTES 24 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 250040
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON NIDA (26W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262009
1100 AM CHST WED NOV 25 2009
...TYPHOON NIDA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFYING...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI.
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000Z...THE EYE OF TYPHOON NIDA WAS LOCATED BY THE
GUAM RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.8
DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM
330 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN
230 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FAIS AND
290 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ULITHI.
TYPHOON NIDA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 11 MPH. LITTLE
CHANGE IN MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 110 MPH. NIDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 1000 AM POSITION...LATITUDE 10.7 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 143.8 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 11 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
$$
MUNDELL
000
AXNT20 KNHC 250001
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 6N25W 8N40W 7N50W 8N60W.
AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 16N40W TO
6N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 21W-37W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS..AND E OF THE AXIS FROM
8N-17N BETWEEN 27W-37W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG
42W IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT WHICH IS ENHANCING THE
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ALONG THE
ITCZ AXIS.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE AREA OF ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF
MEXICO TONIGHT. AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OFF THE
TEXAS COAST STRETCHING FROM 30N93W NEAR LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
TO 25N98W S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS CONTINUING NW ALONG THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 27N102W. RECENT LIGHTNING AND RADAR DATA
INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE IN
THE NERN TIP OF MEXICO FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 97W-100W. LIGHTNING
DATA ALSO INDICATES ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS S OF THE CENTRAL
LOUISIANA COAST FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 91W-93W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER MOST OF THE N AND CENTRAL
GULF FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 88W-96W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS AHEAD
OF THIS LARGE AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO AT 27N82W N OF FORT MYERS
CONTINUING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG 26N87W 23N94W. LIGHTNING
DATA INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SRN
PORTION OF THE FRONT FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 90W-94W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT AXIS. THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A LONGWAVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH AXIS EXTENDING SWD OVER
THE FAR WRN GULF. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTING THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
SURFACE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SE.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND WRN CUBA ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST AND DIFFLUENT WSW FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND WRN
GULF AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
INTO THE WRN ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 78W-85W AFFECTING MOST
OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND ERN NICARAGUA ENHANCED BY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE E PACIFIC ITCZ. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED OVER JAMAICA...CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...AND THE FAR SW
CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WRN ATLC FROM 31N73W ALONG
29N76W TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST AT 28N80W NEAR MELBOURNE
CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST OFF THE FLORIDA COAST FROM
28N-29N BETWEEN 77W-82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ACROSS THE WRN ATLC N OF 22N W OF 68W. THIS ACTIVITY IS
SUPPORTED BY A MOIST AIR MASS EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TO THE NE UNITED STATES COASTLINE NEAR 37N75W. IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC...A 1011 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 27N54W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 22N59W. A
SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE NE
ALONG 28N47W TO A SECOND 1012 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 32N41W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM S OF
THIS TROUGH AXIS. TO THE N..A DYING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
1012 MB LOW CENTER AT 32N41W TO 29N50W CONTINUING AS A DYING
STATIONARY FRONT TO 32N63W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THIS
FRONT AXIS. A NARROW SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS
ALONG 36N65W 26N52W SUPPORTS THE 1011 MB LOW...WHILE A SECOND
LONGER WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 22N42W SUPPORTS THE
1012 MB LOW AND THE SURFACE TROUGH CONNECTING THE TWO SURFACE
LOWS. THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO ENHANCING SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG THE ERN HALF OF THE ITCZ.
$$
WALTON
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 242331
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST TUE NOV 24 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
000
ABNT20 KNHC 242330
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
000
WTPQ81 PGUM 242245
HLSPQ1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON NIDA (26W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 AM CHST WED NOV 25 2009
...TYPHOON WARNING NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON ULITHI AND FAIS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
AT 800 AM CHST...THE TYPHOON WARNING FOR FARAULEP WAS CANCELLED.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 10.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.9 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 125 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF FARAULEP
225 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM
295 MILES EAST OF ULITHI AND
235 MILES EAST OF FAIS.
TYPHOON NIDA IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. LITTLE CHANGE IN MOTION
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 85
MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM
THE CENTER.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TYPHOON NIDA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND
MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM FARAULEP. NIDA MADE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND STARTING TO MOVE FASTER. SINCE THE TYPHOON CENTER IS
ALREADY NORTH OF 10N LATITUDE...THE LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGING WINDS ON
FAIS AND ULITHI IS MUCH LOWER.
...FARAULEP...
.POST-STORM PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALTHOUGH THE TYPHOON IS MOVING AWAY SOME STORM EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT FARAULEP TODAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY SEAS WITH SOME
COASTAL INUNDATION DURING HIGH TIDE IS LIKELY THIS MORNING. REMAIN IN
SAFE SHELTER AWAY FROM THE OCEAN. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL
UNTIL AFTER THE SEAS SUBSIDE.
...ULITHI AND FAIS...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS TODAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND HIGH SEAS AS NIDA PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST. AVOID INTER-
ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL AFTER SEAS SUBSIDE.
...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED AS NIDA MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
OFFSHORE SEAS AROUND 10 FEET WITH SURF HEIGHTS 9 TO 12 FEET CAN BE
EXPECTED ON EXPOSED SHORELINES. COASTAL INUNDATION UP TO 1 FOOT
ABOVE HIGH TIDE.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING
THE NEXT 12 HOURS IS POSSIBLE.
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 3 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON.
$$
MUNDELL
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242158
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE NOV 24 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS ANALYZED FROM 09N79W TO 08N87W TO 08N119W TO 06N129W TO
07N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM S OF
AXIS BETWEEN 79W AND 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE
WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 107W.
...DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 35N123W TO
16N140W WHICH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND WILL CUTOFF JUST OFF THE
BAJA COAST NEAR 26N115W BY EARLY THU AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE U.S. ROCKIES TO NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON WEATHER IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY
HOWEVER IT WILL RESULT IN A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE
DISCUSSION AREA AND OVER DOWNSTREAM/ADJACENT AREAS. A LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BY THU INTO FRI WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE S GULF OF MEXICO JUST
AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL ENHANCE GAP
WIND FLOW FROM THE S GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WHERE STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED BY WED EVENTUALLY REACHING GALE
FORCE LEVEL BY WED NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EARLY AFTERNOON ASCAT AND WINDSAT PASSES CONTINUE
TO SHOW A LARGE SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE
DISCUSSION AREA MAINLY FROM 10N TO 25N W OF 120W. THESE WINDS
ARE SOUTH OF A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 35N130W
AT 18 UTC. A 1215 UTC JASON ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS OF 8
TO 10 FT IN THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES...ALTHOUGH A
PORTION OF THESE SEAS ARE RELATED TO PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD NW
SWELL. A NEW ROUND OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING
UP TO 15 FT IS EXPECTED TO PASS SE OF 30N140W BY LATE WED AND
WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE FAR NW SECTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
THEREAFTER. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS
AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT WILL DIG EASTWARD FROM JUST N
OF THE AREA EXTENDING TO JUST N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE
RESULTANT TRADES WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS...HOWEVER TRADES WILL THEN
REBOUND AND INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL ALONG 30/31N
BY THU INTO FRI.
MEANWHILE FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE N OF 29N DUE
TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE
U.S. GREAT BASIN...A TROUGH OF LOW PRES ALONG THE COAST OF THE E
GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND A HIGH PRES RIDGE W OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN AND THESE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND THEN WILL DIMINISH AS THE
PRES GRADIENT RELAXES.
NE TO E WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE CONTINUE IN THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING WATERS MAINLY DUE TO
DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE CENTRAL AMERICA COAST. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
STRONG DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED ALONG AND
JUST INLAND OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA EXTENDING S TO THE COAST
OF PANAMA...MAINLY DUE TO AFTERNOON SEABREEZE INITIALIZATION AND
CONVERGENCE WITH INLAND TOPOGRAPHIC FEATURES. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PUSH BACK TO THE W AND OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AS LAND
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS BECOME PREDOMINANT. TO THE W...CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED ALONG A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR 11.5N87W TO
04.5N87W. THIS ACTIVITY AND THE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
AS THE FEATURE ENCOUNTERS A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT TO THE W
WHERE STRONGER SW SHEAR ALOFT AND VERY DRY AIR IS EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
$$
LEWITSKY
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 242119
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON NIDA (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262009
800 AM CHST WED NOV 25 2009
...TYPHOON NIDA STILL MOVING NORTHWEST AWAY FROM FARAULEP...
THE TYPHOON WARNING FOR FARAULEP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 10.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.9 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 125 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF FARAULEP
200 MILES NORTH OF WOLEAI
225 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM
235 MILES EAST OF FAIS
295 MILES EAST OF ULITHI AND
400 MILES EAST OF YAP.
TYPHOON NIDA IS MOVING NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 85 MPH. NIDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SLOWLY INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 700 AM POSITION...LATITUDE 10.3 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 143.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
$$
SIMPSON
000
ACPN50 PHFO 241945
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST TUE NOV 24 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON OFFICIALLY ENDS ON NOVEMBER 30.
THE FINAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OF THE SEASON WILL BE ISSUED AT
10 PM ON NOVEMBER 30. WE WILL RESUME ISSUING OUTLOOKS ON JUNE 1 OF
NEXT YEAR.
$$
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 241934
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON NIDA (26W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262009
500 AM CHST WED NOV 25 2009
...TYPHOON NIDA NOW MOVING AWAY FROM FARAULEP...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI.
A TYPHOON WARNING MEANS TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE
OCCURRING OR EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
AT 400 AM CHST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 9.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 144.2 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 95 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF FARAULEP
175 MILES NORTH OF WOLEAI
250 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM
250 MILES EAST OF FAIS
315 MILES EAST OF ULITHI AND
415 MILES EAST OF YAP.
TYPHOON NIDA IS MOVING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 85 MPH. NIDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SLOWLY INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 400 AM POSITION...LATITUDE 9.9 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 144.2 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
AT 1100 AM.
$$
MCELROY
000
AXNT20 KNHC 241747
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N22W 6N37W 6N41W 7N57W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 39W FROM
4N TO 13N WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 2N-16N BETWEEN
25W-39W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS N-NW OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 22N42W TO 10N47W AND IS PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC FURTHER
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT SKIRTS ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST
FROM GALVESTON TO CORPUS CHRISTI. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM CORPUS CHRISTI S THROUGH BROWNSVILLE TO 23N97W. MOSAIC
DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N W OF 92W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED
ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO SOUTHERN TEXAS ALONG 96W. ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...A
STATIONARY FRONT CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM NEAR
MELBOURNE TO SARASOTA AND INTO THE GULF ALONG 27N85W 26N90W TO
24N93W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N
BETWEEN 83W-94W. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE GULF E OF 92W AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STATIONARY FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WATERS...STRONG NLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE FORECAST TO FOLLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS OVERALL
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BASIN. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N
OF 18N BETWEEN WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS CONTINUING TO BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT PATTERN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. AS STRONG EASTERLY TRADEWINDS CONVERGE ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S OF 13N
BETWEEN 76W-85W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ANOTHER
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN S
OF 14N BETWEEN 60W-65W.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N73W AND CONTINUES AS A
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N74W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR
MELBOURNE. THE FRONT LACKS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 72W EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS TO BEYOND 32N72W. MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS
COVERS A MAJORITY OF THE W ATLC...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FARTHER EAST...A PAIR
OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. ONE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 36N66W TO 31N58W
AND IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS ANALYZED ALONG 31N
BETWEEN 54W-62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN
120 NM NORTH OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 53W-62W. THE SECOND UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG 48W N OF 25N AND SUPPORTS A
1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N42W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW ALONG 30N50W TO THE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 31N54W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE
TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS SW FROM THE 1012 MB LOW TO 26N50W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS COVER THE AREA FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN
42W-53W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA
ISLANDS NEAR 33N17W TO 20N45W.
$$
HUFFMAN
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 241743
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
100 PM EST MARTES 24 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR CANGIALOSI/BROWN
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241742
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST TUE NOV 24 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
000
ABNT20 KNHC 241742
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241742
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST TUE NOV 24 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
000
ABNT20 KNHC 241742
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
000
WTPQ81 PGUM 241631
HLSPQ1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON NIDA (26W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 AM CHST WED NOV 25 2009
...A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP...
...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON FARAULEP...ULITHI AND FAIS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OUT
TO 40 NM.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP. A TYPHOON WARNING
MEANS TYPHOON FORCE WINDS 74 MPH OR MORE ARE OCCURRING...OR EXPECTED
TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 9.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 144.7 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 45 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF FARAULEP
135 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF WOLEAI
295 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM
350 MILES EAST OF ULITHI
285 MILES EAST OF FAIS AND
450 MILES EAST OF YAP.
TYPHOON NIDA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 7 MPH. NIDA IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE A SLIGHT TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TYPHOON NIDA IS INTENSIFYING JUST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLAND
OF FARAULEP. STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WITH COASTAL INUNDATION DUE
TO STORM SURGE CAN BE EXPECTED ON FARAULEP AS THE TYPHOON REMAINS
NEAR THIS MORNING. IF THE TYPHOON CONTINUES ON THE PREDICTED PATH IT
WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF ULITHI AND FAIS. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IS IN THE TRACK FORECAST THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
COULD STILL TOUCH THESE TWO ISLANDS ALSO.
...FARAULEP...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMAIN IN SAFE SHELTER AWAY FROM BOTH THE OCEAN AND LAGOON. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN SECURED. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL
UNTIL AFTER THE STORM PASSES AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
...WIND INFORMATION...
WEST WINDS 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 75 MPH THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHILE TYPHOON NIDA MOVES
WEST-NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND TURN SOUTHWEST AS
THE TYPHOON MOVES AWAY.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
EXPECT OFFSHORE SEAS IN EXCESS OF 15 FEET WITH SURF HEIGHTS AROUND
14 TO 18 FEET ON EXPOSED SHORELINES. COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4
FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 6
HOURS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS LIKELY.
...ULITHI AND FAIS...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION. THE ONSET OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINS WILL CAUSE OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES TO BECOME DANGEROUS. SECURE
LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU LIVE IN A
TIN-ROOF HOME...LEAVE IT FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. SEEK SAFE
SHELTER AWAY FROM BOTH THE OCEAN AND LAGOON. TAKE ALL NECESSARY
ACTIONS TO SECURE SMALL CRAFT. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL UNTIL AFTER THE STORM PASSES AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH THIS MORNING BECOMING NORTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH DURING CLOSEST POINT OF
APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IF THE STORM DOES
MOVE FURTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED THEN THESE WINDS COULD BE HIGHER.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
EXPECT OFFSHORE SEAS IN BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET WITH SURF HEIGHTS
AROUND 10 TO 12 FEET ON EXPOSED SHORELINES. COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR.
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 9 AM CHST WEDNESDAY.
$$
LEE
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241602
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE NOV 24 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS ANALYZED FROM 07N78W TO 05N95W TO 07N1008W TO 08N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF
AXIS W OF 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF
AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 110W.
...DISCUSSION...
ASCAT AND WINDSAT PASSES SINCE LAST EVENING CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA
FROM 10N TO 25N W OF 120W. THESE WINDS ARE SOUTH OF A 1027 MB
SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 35N130W...THAT WILL WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS AHEAD OF DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIGGING
EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF HAWAII. THE TRADES WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS THE HIGH PRES TO THE N
WEAKENS. TRADES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL ALONG 30N
THU INTO FRI.
MEANWHILE A A SHORT WAVE MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
35N130W TO 18N140W...AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND CUTOFF JUST OFF
THE BAJA COAST NEAR 26N115W BY EARLY THU...TO THE SOUTH OF AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. WHILE THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT
ON WEATHER IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY...IT WILL SERVE TO MAKE THE
OVERALL PATTERN MORE AMPLIFIED...AND ALLOW A LONG WAVE TROUGH TO
DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. LATER IN THE WEEK...AND PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IN TURN WILL ENHANCE GAP
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WHERE STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED BY WED...REACHING GALE FORCE
WINDS BY WED NIGHT.
ASCAT WAS ALSO SHOWING FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE 1036 MB
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN...IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT WINDS
ARE HIGHER IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF THAN THE ASCAT SCATTEROMETER
IS SAMPLING.
STRONG NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS JUST STARTING TO SUBSIDE OFF THE
COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS FLARE AS
THE RESULT OF OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE BEING ENHANCED
BY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT RELATED TO AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE PARKED
JUST SOUTH OF WESTERN PANAMA.
A JASON ALTIMETER PASS FROM 08Z INDICATED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN
THE AREA OF FRESH AND STRONG TRADES...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS IS
RELATED TO PERSISTENT NW SWELL. A NEW ROUND OF LONG PERIOD NW
SWELL WITH HEIGHTS TO 15 FT IS EXPECTED TO PASS SE OF 30N140W BY
LATE WED IN FAR NW SECTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
$$
CHRISTENSEN
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 241451
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON NIDA (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262009
200 AM CHST WED NOV 25 2009
...TYPHOON NIDA CONTINUING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI.
A TYPHOON WARNING MEANS TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE
OCCURRING OR EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 9.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 144.7 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 45 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF FARAULEP
135 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF WOLEAI
295 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM
350 MILES EAST OF ULITHI
285 MILES EAST OF FAIS AND
450 MILES EAST OF YAP.
TYPHOON NIDA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 7 MPH. NIDA IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE A SLIGHT TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 75 MPH. NIDA IS STILL EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 100 AM POSITION...LATITUDE 9.2 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 144.7 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 AM.
$$
MCELROY
000
ACPN50 PHFO 241355
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST TUE NOV 24 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON OFFICIALLY ENDS ON NOVEMBER 30.
THE FINAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OF THE SEASON WILL BE ISSUED AT
10 PM ON NOVEMBER 30. WE WILL RESUME ISSUING OUTLOOKS ON JUNE 1 OF
2010.
$$
KINEL
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 241321
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON NIDA (26W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262009
1100 PM CHST TUE NOV 24 2009
...TYPHOON NIDA IS ONCE AGAIN ON THE MOVE...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI.
A TYPHOON WARNING MEANS TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE
OCCURRING OR EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NIDA WAS LOCATED BY
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR LATITUDE 8.9 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 145.0 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 35 MILES EAST OF FARAULEP
130 MILES NORTHEAST OF WOLEAI
315 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM
375 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
310 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FAIS.
470 MILES EAST OF YAP.
TYPHOON NIDA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. NIDA IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE A SLIGHT TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH. NIDA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 1000 PM POSITION...LATITUDE 8.9 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 145.0 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.
$$
STANKO
000
AXNT20 KNHC 241153
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
9N12W 7N34W...INTO NORTHEASTERN FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 4N52W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 28W AND 33W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 17W AND 20W...AND FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN
33W AND 35W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 35W FROM 3N TO 11N.
ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS NEAR THIS TROUGH.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA...IN ADVANCE
OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY IS MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL U.S.A. THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS GUIDING THE NEXT COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE TEXAS GULF COAST DURING THE NEXT SIX HOURS OR
SO. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH AT 850 MB TO BE ON
A LINE FROM THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THE FORECAST IS FOR THE FRONT TO
HAVE CLEARED THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO BY THANKSGIVING EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF WATERS NOW TO THE
NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 85W AND THE GULF COASTS OF EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND TEXAS.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE GFS MODEL SHOWS AN INVERTED 850 MB TROUGH THAT STRETCHES
FROM NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN SEA COAST
OF NICARAGUA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CLUSTERS
STRETCH FROM THE WATERS JUST TO THE NORTH OF GULF OF URABA
TO EASTERN NICARAGUA. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 18N TO THE WEST
OF 84W IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA...THANKS TO AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 31N69W
TO 16N71W. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL THAT EXTENDS FROM EAST CENTRAL
COLOMBIA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS SENDING UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 14N.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...UNDER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW...CLOSE TO AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG
24N75W 20N74W. THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS
AND NOW ARE FROM 23N TO 27N WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE
NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. ONE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 25N50W BEYOND 32N48W. SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W. AN UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N40W. CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 28N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC
FLOW WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N42W 25N46W 16N49W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 33N43W TO 27N48W AND 23N55W. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 31N50W AND BEYOND 31N57W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N
TO THE EAST OF 34W...WITH AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH.
$$
MT
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 241144
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MARTES 24 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BROWN
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABNT20 KNHC 241143
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241143
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST TUE NOV 24 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
WTPQ81 PGUM 241050
HLSPQ1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON NIDA (26W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST TUE NOV 24 2009
...A TYPHOON WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP...
...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON FARAULEP...ULITHI AND FAIS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OUT
TO 40 NM.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP. A TYPHOON WARNING
MEANS TYPHOON FORCE WINDS 74 MPH OR MORE ARE OCCURRING...OR EXPECTED
TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 8.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.5 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 65 MILES EAST OF FARAULEP.
135 MILES NORTHEAST OF WOLEAI
415 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FAIS.
510 MILES EAST OF YAP.
NIDA IS NEARLY STATIONARY. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST
DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TYPHOON NIDA IS INTENSIFYING JUST EAST OF THE ISLAND OF FARAULEP.
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WITH COASTAL INUNDATION DUE TO STORM
SURGE CAN BE EXPECTED ON FARAULEP AS THE TYPHOON REMAINS NEAR THIS
EVENING. IF THE TYPHOON CONTINUES ON THE PREDICTED PATH IT WILL PASS
TO THE NORTH OF ULITHI AND FAIS. HOWEVER...ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS IN
THE TRACK FORECAST THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD STILL TOUCH
THESE TWO ISLANDS ALSO.
...FARAULEP...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SEEK SAFE SHELTER AWAY FROM BOTH THE OCEAN AND LAGOON. TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO SECURE SMALL CRAFT. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-
ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL AFTER THE STORM PASSES AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
...WIND INFORMATION...
WEST WINDS 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 75 MPH THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHILE TYPHOON NIDA REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY. IF STRONG WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS MAY MEAN
THE EYE OF THE STORM IS PASSING OVERHEAD. IF THIS OCCURS...DO NOT
VENTURE FAR FROM SAFE SHELTER...AS STRONG WINDS WILL SUDDENLY
INCREASE FROM THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AND TURN SOUTHWEST AS THE TYPHOON ACTUALLY MOVES AWAY.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
EXPECT OFFSHORE SEAS IN EXCESS OF 15 FEET WITH SURF HEIGHTS AROUND
14 TO 18 FEET ON EXPOSED SHORELINES. COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4
FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8
INCHES DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR.
...ULITHI AND FAIS...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
UNDERTAKEN BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE WEDNESDAY. THE ONSET OF
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CAN CAUSE OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES TO
BECOME DANGEROUS. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN
AROUND. IF YOU LIVE IN A TIN-ROOF HOME...LEAVE IT FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. SEEK SAFE SHELTER AWAY FROM BOTH THE OCEAN AND
LAGOON. TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO SECURE SMALL CRAFT. DO NOT
ATTEMPT ANY INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL AFTER THE STORM PASSES AND
SEAS SUBSIDE.
...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH THIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY LATE TONIGHT AND
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH DURING CLOSEST
POINT OF APPROACH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IF THE STORM DOES MOVE
FURTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED THEN THESE WINDS COULD BE HIGHER.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
EXPECT OFFSHORE SEAS IN BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET WITH SURF HEIGHTS
AROUND 10 TO 12 FEET ON EXPOSED SHORELINES. COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR.
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 3 AM CHST WEDNESDAY.
$$
STANKO
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240945
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE NOV 24 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0815 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS ANALYZED FROM 08N82W TO 08N85W TO 06N91W TO 07N117W TO
06N123W TO 08N136W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 80 NM OF AXIS FROM 106W TO 108W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 250 NM S OF AXIS E OF
87W.
...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ENTERED THE NW PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N134W TO 22N140W.
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FOUND
FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO 20N102W. SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING IN BROAD
MID-UPPER CONVERGENCE ON BACK SIDE OF TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF NE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CONVECTION IS ALSO LIMITED ALONG THE ITCZ
W OF 87W...WHERE THERE IS ONLY ONLY WEAK CONVERGENT FLOW. THE
ONLY AREA OF CONVECTION W OF 87W IS NEAR 107W DUE TO A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH. THE LACK OF CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ WILL RESULT IN WEAKER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...AND ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST
ENTERING THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA TO MOVE ACROSS THE THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY REACHING THE BAJA
PENINSULA AND INTENSIFYING BY EARLY THU.
...AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRESSURE 1027 MB CENTERED NEAR 36N131W MAINTAINS FRESH TO
STRONG TRADEWIND FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE W PORTION OF THE
AREA...WITH SEAS 9 TO 12 FT IN MIXED NW AND NE SWELLS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA...WHILE WEAKENING AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY WED NIGHT. THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS TIGHTENED THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO GULF OF CALIFORNIA YIELDING A FRESH NORTH
BREEZE TO THE BASIN N OF 28N AS INDICATED IN ASCAT. LARGE LONG
PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO SPREAD S AND SE ACROSS MOST OF THE
EPAC W OF 115W. E OF 115W...SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 4 TO 6 FT
IN A MERGING LONG PERIOD SW AND NW SWELL. ANOTHER ROUND OF EVEN
LARGER LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OF
THE AREA WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS REACHING NEAR 16 FT.
NLY GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE FORECAST TO
BEGIN TONIGHT WITH WINDS NEAR 20 KT THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE
BEGINNING TO INCREASE AND EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM SINKS S ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. GALE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WED NIGHT.
$$
AL
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 240944 AAA
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON NIDA (26W) SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262009
800 PM CHST TUE NOV 24 2009
...NIDA UPGRADED TO A TYPHOON...
A TYPHOON WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI.
A TYPHOON WARNING MEANS TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE
OCCURRING OR EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
AT 700 PM CHST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NIDA WAS LOCATED BY
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR LATITUDE 8.7 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 145.5 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 65 MILES EAST OF FARAULEP
135 MILES NORTHEAST OF WOLEAI
345 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM
415 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FAIS.
510 MILES EAST OF YAP.
TYPHOON NIDA IS NEARLY STATIONARY. IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND SPEED UP TO AROUND 12 MPH DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH. NIDA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 700 PM POSITION...LATITUDE 8.7 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 145.5 DEGREES EAST...NEARLY STATIONARY WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
$$
SIMPSON/STANKO
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 240903
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON NIDA (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262009
800 PM CHST TUE NOV 24 2009
...NIDA UPGRADED TO A TYPHOON...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS...BETWEEN
39 AND 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
AT 700 PM CHST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NIDA WAS NEAR
LATITUDE 8.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.2 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 50 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FARAULEP
135 MILES NORTHEAST OF WOLEAI
315 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM
390 MILES EAST OF ULITHI
325 MILES EAST OF FAIS.
485 MILES EAST OF YAP.
TYPHOON NIDA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 3 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO
TURN MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH. NIDA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 700 PM POSITION...LATITUDE 8.9 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 145.2 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 3 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
$$
SIMPSON
000
ACPN50 PHFO 240755
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 PM HST MON NOV 23 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON OFFICIALLY ENDS ON NOVEMBER 30.
THE FINAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OF THE SEASON WILL BE ISSUED AT
10 PM ON NOVEMBER 30. WE WILL RESUME ISSUING OUTLOOKS ON JUNE 1 OF
2010.
$$
KINEL
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 240737
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
100 AM EST MARTES 24 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN/KIMBERLAIN
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 240721
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262009
500 PM CHST TUE NOV 24 2009
...TROPICAL STORM NIDA IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST AND INTENSIFYING...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS...BETWEEN
39 AND 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
AT 400 PM CHST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NIDA WAS
NEAR LATITUDE 8.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.5 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 65 MILES EAST OF FARAULEP
140 MILES NORTHEAST OF WOLEAI
330 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM
410 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
345 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FAIS.
510 MILES EAST OF YAP.
TROPICAL STORM NIDA IS MOVING WEST TOWARD THE ISLAND OF FARAULEP
...AT AROUND 9 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TOWARDS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 MPH. NIDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AND WILL POSSIBLY BECOME A TYPHOON DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM
THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 400 PM POSITION...LATITUDE 8.7 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 145.5 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
AT 1100 PM CHST.
$$
ZIOBRO
000
WTPQ81 PGUM 240525
HLSPQ1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 PM CHST TUE NOV 24 2009
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP...
...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON FARAULEP...ULITHI AND FAIS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OUT
TO 40 NM.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS BETWEEN 39 AND 73 MPH
ARE OCCURRING...OR EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 300 PM CHST...0500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NIDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.5 DEGREES
EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 65 MILES EAST OF FARAULEP.
140 MILES NORTHEAST OF WOLEAI
410 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FAIS.
510 MILES EAST OF YAP.
NIDA IS MOVING WEST TOWARDS THE ISLAND OF FARAULEP...AT AROUND 9
MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NIDA IS INTENSIFYING SOUTH OF GUAM AND MOVING SLOWLY
WEST TOWARD THE ISLAND OF FARAULEP. STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WITH
COASTAL INUNDATION DUE TO STORM SURGE CAN BE EXPECTED ON FARAULEP AS
THE TROPICAL STORM PASSES NEARBY THIS EVENING. IF THE TROPICAL STORM
CONTINUES ON THE PREDICTED PATH IT WOULD PASS TO THE NORTH OF ULITHI
AND FAIS. HOWEVER...ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TRACK FORECAST
AND AS A RESULT IT COULD PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ULITHI AND FAIS TO
BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THESE ISLANDS.
...FARAULEP...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SEEK SAFE SHELTER AWAY FROM BOTH THE OCEAN AND LAGOON. TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO SECURE SMALL CRAFT. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-
ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL AFTER THE STORM PASSES AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING WEST 50 TO
60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 75 MPH BY EARLY EVENING DURING CLOSEST POINT OF
APPROACH. IF STRONG WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS MAY MEAN THE EYE OF
THE STORM IS PASSING OVERHEAD. IF THIS OCCURS...DO NOT VENTURE FAR
FROM SAFE SHELTER...AS STRONG WINDS WILL SUDDENLY INCREASE FROM THE
OPPOSITE DIRECTION.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
EXPECT OFFSHORE SEAS IN EXCESS OF 15 FEET WITH SURF HEIGHTS AROUND
14 TO 18 FEET ON EXPOSED SHORELINES. COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4
FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8
INCHES DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR.
...ULITHI AND FAIS...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
UNDERTAKEN BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT. THE ONSET OF
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CAN CAUSE OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES TO
BECOME DANGEROUS. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN
AROUND. IF YOU LIVE IN A TIN-ROOF HOME...LEAVE IT FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. SEEK SAFE SHELTER AWAY FROM BOTH THE OCEAN AND
LAGOON. TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO SECURE SMALL CRAFT. DO NOT
ATTEMPT ANY INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL AFTER THE STORM PASSES AND
SEAS SUBSIDE.
...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH THIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY LATE TONIGHT AND
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUST TO 50 MPH DURING EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING DURING CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH. IF THE STORM
DOES MOVE FURTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED THEN THESE WINDS COULD BE
HIGHER.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
EXPECT OFFSHORE SEAS IN BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET WITH SURF HEIGHTS
AROUND 10 TO 12 FEET ON EXPOSED SHORELINES. COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR.
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 9 PM.
$$
ZIOBRO/MUNDELL
000
ABNT20 KNHC 240523
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/KIMBERLAIN
000
AXNT20 KNHC 240521
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
8N13W 7N25W 7N34W...INTO NORTHEASTERN FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N53W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 5N WITHIN 30 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 10W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 18W AND 54W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR TO THE
DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STARTING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TO THE TEXAS GULF
COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE FORMED FROM 24N TO 26N
BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
HAVE FORMED FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 88W AND 90W...IN AN AREA
WHERE THE GFS MODEL FORECASTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE
TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA...
THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ALONG 31N69W TO 16N71W. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL THAT
EXTENDS FROM EAST CENTRAL COLOMBIA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA IS SENDING UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 14N. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
SHEARING THE TOPS OF THE CLOUD DEVELOPMENTS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ITCZ IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE
SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 80W.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN
72W AND 74W...IN AN AREA OF A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH.
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT/TROUGH PASS THROUGH 31N76W TO JUST
SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
26N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND THE U.S.A. EAST
COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
23N40W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 14N TO 27N BETWEEN
30W AND 50W. THE ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 24N TO 27N
BETWEEN 51W AND 55W...AND FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W
ARE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 31N47W TO 27N50W...FROM A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N45W...THAT IS ALONG A COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N50W TO 31N60W AND THEN BEYOND
32N64W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N
TO THE EAST OF 34W...WITH AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH.
$$
MT
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 240521
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PST MON NOV 23 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/KIMBERLAIN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240339
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE NOV 24 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS ANALYZED FROM 08N81W TO 08N85W TO 06N91W TO 07N99W TO
06N110W TO 07N118W TO 06N123W TO 09N136W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS E OF 87W.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM OF
AXIS FROM 104W TO 121W.
...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM 09N118W TO 30N129W
IS MAINTAINING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS BASIN N OF THE ITCZ AND
W OF 122W...WHILE ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL N OF
ITCZ EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. A DIGGING S/W TROUGH EXTENDED
FROM W TEXAS TO 20N105W AND HAS COME INTO PHASE WITH L/W TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING IN BROAD
MID-UPPER CONVERGENCE ON BACK SIDE OF TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF NE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AT THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH...UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN TROUGH AND RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA WAS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE W AND SW GULF OF MEXICO AS WELL
AS THE W AND NW CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN WILL BE CHANGING DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH S OF 30N AND
JUST E OF THE HAWAII IS FORECAST TO MOVE E ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AXIS...WITH THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY
REACHING THE BAJA PENINSULA AND INTENSIFYING BY EARLY THU.
...AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES 1026 MB CENTERED AT 36N130W IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO
STRONG TRADEWINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE W HALF OF THE AREA...W OF
120W N OF 10N...WITH SEAS 9 TO 12 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL.
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN N OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH NEXT 48 HOURS
THEN SHIFT E-SE...BEFORE WEAKENING WED AND DIMINISHING...
SHRINKING THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO GULF OF CALIFORNIA YIELDING A
FRESH NORTH BREEZE TO THE BASIN N OF 28N BEGINNING EARLY TUE.
LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO SPREAD S AND SE ACROSS
MOST OF THE EPAC W OF 115W. E OF 115W...SEAS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN 4 TO 6 FT IN A MERGING LONG PERIOD SW AND NW SWELL.
FRESH NE TRADES THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNSTREAM ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 24 HOURS AS LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA
SHIFT W INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN...RESULTING IN A MORE N TO NE AND
WEAKER FLOW OFF OF PAPAGAYO BY TUE NIGHT. NLY GAP WINDS THROUGH
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT AND
PULSE UP AND DOWN NEAR 20 KT THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE
BEGINNING TO INCREASE AND EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM SINKS S ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOME MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH
TEHUANTEPEC BY 48 HOURS.
$$
STRIPLING
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 240300
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262009
200 PM CHST TUE NOV 24 2009
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI...
AS OF 100 PM...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND
ULITHI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS...BETWEEN
39 AND 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOUS.
AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NIDA WAS
NEAR LATITUDE 8.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.1 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 40 MILES EAST OF FARAULEP
120 MILES NORTHEAST OF WOLEAI
330 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM
380 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
320 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FAIS.
480 MILES EAST OF YAP.
TROPICAL STORM NIDA IS MOVING WEST TOWARD THE ISLAND OF FARAULEP...
AT AROUND 9 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 MPH. NIDA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 100 PM POSITION...LATITUDE 8.7 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 145.1 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM CHST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 800 PM TONIGHT.
$$
MUNDELL
000
WTPQ81 PGUM 240154 CCA
HLSPQ1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1200 PM CHST TUE NOV 24 2009
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR FARAULEP...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON FARAULEP AND SURROUNDING WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS BETWEEN 39 AND 73 MPH
ARE OCCURRING...OR EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NIDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.7 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF FARAULEP.
NIDA IS MOVING WEST AT AROUND 8 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-
NORTHWEST DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NIDA IS INTENSIFYING SOUTH OF GUAM AND MOVING SLOWLY
WEST TOWARD THE ISLAND OF FARAULEP. STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WITH
COASTAL INUNDATION DUE TO STORM SURGE CAN BE EXPECTED ON FARAULEP AS
THE TROPICAL STORM PASSES NEARBY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SEEK SAFE SHELTER AWAY FROM BOTH THE OCEAN AND LAGOON. TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO SECURE SMALL CRAFT. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-
ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL AFTER THE STORM PASSES AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING WEST 50 TO 60
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 75 MPH BY EARLY EVENING DURING CLOSEST POINT OF
APPROACH. IF STRONG WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS MAY MEAN THE EYE OF
THE STORM IS PASSING OVERHEAD. IF THIS OCCURS...DO NOT VENTURE FAR
FROM SAFE SHELTER...AS STRONG WINDS WILL SUDDENLY INCREASE FROM THE
OPPOSITE DIRECTION.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
EXPECT OFFSHORE SEAS IN EXCESS OF 15 FEET WITH SURF HEIGHTS AROUND
14 TO 18 FEET ON EXPOSED SHORELINES. COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4
FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8
INCHES DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR.
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 3 PM.
$$
MUNDELL
000
ACPN50 PHFO 240152
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST MON NOV 23 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
$$
BIRCHARD
000
WTPQ81 PGUM 240150
HLSPQ1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1200 PM CHST TUE NOV 24 2009
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR FARAULEP...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON FARAULEP AND SURROUNDING WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS BETWEEN 39 AND 73 MPH
ARE OCCURRING...OR EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1000 PM CHST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NIDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.7 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF FARAULEP.
NIDA IS MOVING WEST AT AROUND 8 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-
NORTHWEST DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NIDA IS INTENSIFYING SOUTH OF GUAM AND MOVING SLOWLY
WEST TOWARD THE ISLAND OF FARAULEP. STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WITH
COASTAL INUNDATION DUE TO STORM SURGE CAN BE EXPECTED ON FARAULEP AS
THE TROPICAL STORM PASSES NEARBY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SEEK SAFE SHELTER AWAY FROM BOTH THE OCEAN AND LAGOON. TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO SECURE SMALL CRAFT. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-
ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL AFTER THE STORM PASSES AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING WEST 50 TO 60
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 75 MPH BY EARLY EVENING DURING CLOSEST POINT OF
APPROACH. IF STRONG WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS MAY MEAN THE EYE OF
THE STORM IS PASSING OVERHEAD. IF THIS OCCURS...DO NOT VENTURE FAR
FROM SAFE SHELTER...AS STRONG WINDS WILL SUDDENLY INCREASE FROM THE
OPPOSITE DIRECTION.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
EXPECT OFFSHORE SEAS IN EXCESS OF 15 FEET WITH SURF HEIGHTS AROUND
14 TO 18 FEET ON EXPOSED SHORELINES. COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4
FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8
INCHES DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR.
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 3 PM.
$$
MUNDELL
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 240108
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W) SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262009
1100 AM CHST TUE NOV 24 2009
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR FARAULEP...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP.
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NIDA WAS
ESTIMATED AT LATITUDE 8.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.7 DEGREES
EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF FARAULEP
120 MILES NORTHWEST OF SATAWAL
350 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM
455 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN
525 MILES EAST OF YAP.
TROPICAL STORM NIDA IS MOVING WEST TOWARD THE ISLAND OF FARAULEP...
AT AROUND 8 MPH. NIDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 MPH. NIDA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 1000 AM POSITION...LATITUDE 8.5 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 145.7 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON.
$$
MUNDELL
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 240042
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
700 PM EST LUNES 23 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN/KIMBERLAIN
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
AXNT20 KNHC 232347
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 5N20W 8N34W 5N40W 6N60W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN
23W-30W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 10N34W 3N34W.
ISOLATE MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 30W-40W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 40W-55W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO SOUTH TEXAS ALONG 27N80W 25N90W
26N97W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WESTERN
GULF ALONG THE FRONT FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 90W-97W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE EASTERN FRONT WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
FRONT E OF 90W. SURFACE WINDS ARE MAINLY 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT THE
GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE EASTERN HALF OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF HAS SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. A 70-90 KT UPPER
LEVEL JETSTREAM IS NOTED EXTENDING FROM TAMPICO MEXICO TO TAMPA
FLORIDA. EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH CONVECTION AND SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SURFACE
MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SE GULF
FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN HAS TIGHTENED
THUS FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS DOMINATES THE BASIN WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A 1007 MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER PANAMA NEAR 8N79W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA
FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 80W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO OVER E CUBA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 75W-79W. PATCHES OF BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE W
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA NAMELY W OF 85W TO INCLUDE THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE WITH
RIDGE AXIS ALONG 75W IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA EXCEPT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND
THE SW CARIBBEAN...WHERE WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PREVAILS.
EXPECT...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
W OF 80W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1015 MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR
34N77W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S TO SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG 30N77W
27N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1019
MB HIGH IS FURTHER E NEAR 27N72W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N47W TO 26N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 44W-48W.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER S APPROACHING THE LESSER
ANTILLES ALONG 20N55W 11N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 9N-14N
BETWEEN 57W-62W. A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 37N16W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 25N38W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MORE CONVECTION OVER THE N
FLORIDA COAST...OVER THE BAHAMAS...AND OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
N OF 25N BETWEEN 45W-55W.
$$
FORMOSA
000
ABNT20 KNHC 232331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/KIMBERLAIN
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 232331
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST MON NOV 23 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/KIMBERLAIN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232156
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON NOV 23 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO
06N82W TO 07N101W TO 05N110W TO 08N118W TO 06N123W TO 08N132W TO
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS
E OF 88W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN
90 NM OF AXIS FROM 104W TO 119W.
...DISCUSSION...
BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM 10N115W TO 28N133W IS
MAINTAINING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS BASIN N OF THE ITCZ AND W
OF 120W...WHILE ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL N OF
ITCZ EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. REORGANIZING S/W TROUGH FROM
W TEXAS TO 21N106W HAS COME INTO PHASE WITH L/W TROUGH ACROSS
CENTRAL U.S. SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING IN BROAD MID-UPPER
CONVERGENCE ON BACK SIDE OF TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF NE PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. AT THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW BETWEEN TROUGH AND RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA WAS ENHANCING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE W AND SW GULF OF MEXICO AS WELL AS NW
CARIBBEAN.
ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES 1028 MB CENTERED AT 32N135W IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO
STRONG TRADEWINDS ACROSS W OF 125W N OF 10N...WITH SEAS 9 TO 12
FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN N OF FORECAST
AREA THROUGH NEXT 48 HOURS THEN SHIFT E...BEFORE WEAKENING WED
AND DIMINISHING...AND SHRINKING THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES. THIS
WILL ALSO BRING A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO GULF OF
CALIFORNIA YIELDING A FRESH NORTH BREEZE TO THE BASIN N OF 28N
BEGINNING EARLY TUE. LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO
SPREADING S AND SE ACROSS MOST E PAC W OF 115W.
FRESH NE TRADES THROUGH GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNSTREAM ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 36 HOURS AS LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA
WEAKENS.
$$
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 232126
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262009
800 AM CHST TUE NOV 24 2009
...TROPICAL STORM NIDA MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NIDA WAS NEAR
LATITUDE 8.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.9 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 420 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK
250 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF PULUWAT
260 MILES WEST OF ULUL
130 MILES NORTHWEST OF SATAWAL
95 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FARAULEP
325 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
430 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN
535 MILES EAST OF YAP.
TROPICAL STORM NIDA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 8 MPH. NIDA
IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM NIDA IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 700 AM POSITION...LATITUDE 8.9 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 145.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
$$
SIMPSON
000
ACPN50 PHFO 231952
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST MON NOV 23 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
$$
BIRCHARD
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 231747
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
100 PM EST LUNES 23 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BROWN
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABNT20 KNHC 231735
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231730
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST MON NOV 23 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
AXNT20 KNHC 231704
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 6N23W 8N32W 5N40W 7N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N
BETWEEN 23W-32W E OF AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 14N34W
5N30W. ISOLATE MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN
44W-53W. A SECOND EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES FROM 16N55W TO 6N54W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR FORT MYERS CONTINUING ALONG
25N86W 23N92W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...AND WITHIN 200 NM NW OF
THE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE END OF
THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE WRN GULF FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 90W-96W.
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT
AROUND THE ERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN GULF ANCHORED BY A
1021 MB HIGH S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W BRINING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER TO THE NW GULF COASTLINE. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO
WEAKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TUE.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN NOTED IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN.
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
16N-20N BETWEEN 85W-88W ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO NOTED N OF JAMAICA NEAR 19N78W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF
12N BETWEEN 77W-84W AFFECTING AREAS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE E
PACIFIC ITCZ...AS WELL AS DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IN THE E PACIFIC AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BASIN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A WEAK 1018 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE
NRN COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 31N77W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST NEAR VERO BEACH AT
28N80W CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 29N BETWEEN
72W-77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA
N OF 24N W OF 72W. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY MOIST
SWLY AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERING THE WRN ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR
26N68W COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE WRN ATLC. A PAIR OF SURFACE
TROUGHS ARE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE FIRST EXTENDS FROM 30N56W
TO 26N57W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE TO THE E OF THE AXIS FROM
25N-29N BETWEEN 51W-55W. THE SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N45W
TO 27N49W. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. BOTH SURFACE TROUGHS ARE SUPPORTED BY A NARROW
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS TO THE SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 23N41W. THE
UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 12N-24N BETWEEN 30W-39W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE ERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1034 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 38N18W.
$$
WALTON
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 231658
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
700 AM EST LUNES 23 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS/BROWN
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231608
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON NOV 23 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1445 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 06N77W TO 06N107W TO 07N114W TO 08N134W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS E OF 93W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 98W-120W.
...DISCUSSION...
BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM 00N115W TO 32N130W MAINTAINS
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS BASIN W OF 120W AND ADVECTS ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL N OF ITCZ EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MEXICO.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO 13N110W KEEP DRY
AIR MASS N OF 20N FROM 100W-120W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW
BETWEEN TROUGH AND RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA ENHANCING CONVECTION
E OF 93W ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES CENTER 1007 MB OVER COLOMBIA.
ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES 1028 MB CENTERED AT 34N134W MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG
TRADEWINDS ACROSS W OF 125W N OF 10N. HIGH PRES REMAIN N OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH NEXT 48 HOURS THEN SHIFT E...BEFORE
WEAKENING WED AND DIMINISHING AND SHRINKING TRADES. IT WILL
ALSO BRING TIGHTENING GRADIENT INTO GULF OF CALIFORNIA BRINGING
FRESH N BREEZE N OF 28N LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL STILL
SPREADING ACROSS MOST E PAC W OF 115W.
FRESH NE TRADES THROUGH GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNSTREAM EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH LATE TUE AS LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA WEAKENS.
$$
WALLY BARNES
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 231542
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NIDA (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262009
200 AM CHST TUE NOV 24 2009
...TROPICAL STORM NIDA MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NIDA WAS NEAR
LATITUDE 8.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 146.6 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 375 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK
210 MILES NORTHWEST OF PULUWAT
210 MILES WEST OF ULUL
110 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SATAWAL
140 MILES EAST OF FARAULEP
340 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
435 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN
580 MILES EAST OF YAP.
TROPICAL STORM NIDA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 12 MPH.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM NIDA IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE STORM CENTER.
REPEATING THE 100 AM POSITION...LATITUDE 8.9 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 146.6 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING.
$$
LEE
000
ACPN50 PHFO 231355
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST MON NOV 23 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
$$
KINEL
000
AXNT20 KNHC 231148
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
9N13W 5N40W 7N51W...ACROSS NORTHERN SURINAME...AND BEYOND GUYANA
AND 6N60W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN
26W AND 28W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE
AREA FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 23W AND 35W. POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 10W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 51W/52W FROM 6N TO 11N.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES FROM 23/0000 UTC CONTINUED AS WEAKENING BOUNDARIES
INTO 23/0600 UTC. THE WHOLE FRONTAL STRUCTURE HAD DISSIPATED
COMPLETELY BY 23/0900 UTC. ONLY A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
A 1015 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N80W
TO 28N81W IN FLORIDA...TO 26N84W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 23N
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 95W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS LINGER TO THE SOUTH OF 19N TO THE WEST
OF 85W IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
COVER THE AREA FROM 17N TO 23N IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BETWEEN
69W AND 78W...IN THE AREA OF A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH.
THIS PRECIPITATION SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA...AND
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THANKS TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE THAT IS ALONG 32N70W 17N70W.
A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA IS SENDING UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 14N. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
SHEARING THE TOPS OF THE CLOUD DEVELOPMENTS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ITCZ IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE
SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 76W.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 55W AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE JUST TO THE WEST OF SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 28N
TO 31N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM
26N TO 28N BETWEEN 53W AND 54W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 20W FROM 31N TO 27N. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N BETWEEN 22W AND
23W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 24N41W TO
21N37W TO 18N36W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 45W AND 47W.
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA FROM
15N TO 24N BETWEEN 34W AND 42W.
$$
MT
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 231143
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
700 AM EST LUNES 23 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS/BROWN
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABNT20 KNHC 231142
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231142
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST MON NOV 23 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 231000
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 26W ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262009
800 PM CHST MON NOV 23 2009
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W HAS INTENSIFIED TO A TROPICAL STORM...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 700 PM CHST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 26W WAS NEAR
LATITUDE 8.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.6 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 300 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK
140 MILES NORTHWEST OF PULUWAT
140 MILES WEST OF ULUL
85 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SATAWAL
210 MILES EAST OF FARAULEP
395 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
475 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
650 MILES EAST OF YAP.
TROPICAL STORM 26W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT AROUND 7 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 26W IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REPEATING THE 700 PM POSITION...LATITUDE 8.5 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 147.6 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM TUESDAY MORNING.
$$
STANKO
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230929
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON NOV 23 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0815 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N85W TO 08N115W TO 09N130W TO 07N140W.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN
125 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 127W AND 130W...ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 130W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ W OF 120W THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AS THE SE TRADES HAVE
DECREASED IN MAGNITUDE...AND CONVERGENCE HAS DECREASED. THOUGH
THERE STILL REMAINS ISOLATED TO MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN 127
AND 130W DUE TO A WEAK LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 1026 MB CENTERED NEAR 33.5N136W AS
DEPICTED IN THE 0400 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. THIS HAS MAINTAINED
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA N OF 11N. THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL REMAIN N
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH A SHIFT E
OF ITS CURRENT POSITION...BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN ON WED. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE
AREA SHRINKING SLIGHTLY IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS E OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N WILL
INCREASE. THE TRADE WINDS CURRENTLY INCLUDE A LARGE AREA OF
20-25 KT NE-E WINDS S OF 25N AND W OF 125W...WITH SEAS 9 TO 14
FT IN MIXED NE WIND SWELL AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. LARGE NWLY
SWELL CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WATERS AND WILL FADE MODESTLY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG PULSE OF NW SWELL
ARRIVES. E OF 115W...SEAS REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS...DOMINATED BY A MERGING MIX OF
NW...SW...AND S SWELL.
NORTHERLY GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SHOULD
DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WINDS HAVE VEERED
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...A SMALL PLUME OF NEAR 20 KT N WINDS IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST THROUGH 24 HOURS. FRESH NE TRADES THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AND DOWNSTREAM SOME 300 MILES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH 48 HOURS.
$$
AL
000
ACPN50 PHFO 230755
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 PM HST SUN NOV 22 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
$$
KINEL
000
AXNT20 KNHC 230605
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
9N13W 5N30W 5N39W 6N49W...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN FRENCH
GUIANA...NORTHERN SURINAME...AND BEYOND CENTRAL GUYANA AND
5N60W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 2N TO 8N...MOSTLY BETWEEN
10W AND 53W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N51W 4N50W. THE SOUTHERN
END OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 23N41W TO
19N39W TO 14N36W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE
AREA FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 35W AND 41W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE FAR
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AN OCCLUDED FRONT GOES FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN IT
CURVES TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE WARM
FRONT THAT WAS GOING FROM THE TRIPLE POINT IN THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND EASTWARD ACROSS THE BORDER OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA HAS BECOME STATIONARY ALSO DURING THE LAST
SIX HOURS. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE RACING ACROSS
THE AREA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 21N TO 22N WITHIN 30 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 95W.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN GUATEMALA
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 23N86W IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
BETWEEN 85W AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS NORTHWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THANKS TO A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE WAY TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA IS SENDING UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 14N.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 56W AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES
FROM 31N51W TO 26N48W TO 23N41W TO 19N39W TO 14N36W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO
31N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W...AND FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 55W AND
57W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM
31N22W TO 26N23W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 29N TO 31N
BETWEEN 20W AND 22W.
$$
MT
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 230526
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
100 AM EST LUNES 23 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABNT20 KNHC 230524
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 230522
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PST SUN NOV 22 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230327
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON NOV 23 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 06N77W TO 06N95W TO 07N106W TO 06N117W TO
09N130W TO 06N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS E OF 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM S AND 240 NM N OF AXIS
FROM 127W TO 135W...ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
131W.
...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 09-10N COVERS THE
TROPICAL EPAC S OF 22N FROM 148W TO 100W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER
THIS AREA CONTINUES TO ADVECT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ALONG ITCZ W OF 125W NE THEN E ACROSS MEXICO
AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
N OF THE RIDGE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS TO 25N115W...AND IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN SUBSIDENCE AND
STABLE AIR N OF 22N...DUE TO UPPER CONVERGENCE. A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WAS E OF THE RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM A MID LEVEL LOW
OFF THE NE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO 02N96W. WLY WINDS ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WERE DIVING INTO THE W SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH...PRODUCING CONVERGENCE...AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS N OF THE ITCZ FROM 100W TO 84W.
A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N136W CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF AREA N OF ITCZ AND W OF
115W...WITH LOW PRES OVER SRN CALIFORNIA HELPING TO INCREASE
N-NW WINDS ALONG THE W COAST COASTAL WATERS...WHICH WERE
SPREADING S TO OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA W COAST. THESE
TRADE WINDS INCLUDE A LARGE AREA OF 20-25 KT NE-E WINDS S OF
25N AND W OF 125W...WITH SEAS 9 TO 14 FT IN MIXED NE WIND SWELL
AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. THESE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY
PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...SHRINKING SLIGHTLY IN
AREAL COVERAGE. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE E AND IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE WINDS N OF 28-29N IN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITHIN 30
HOURS. ELSEWHERE W OF 115W...LARGE NWLY SWELL CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE WATERS AND WILL FADE MODESTLY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG PULSE OF NW SWELL ARRIVES. ALONG
THE ITCZ AND UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE...AN ELY WAVE WAS ALONG
ABOUT 131W...EMBEDDED IN ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
REMAIN ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY N OF 11N UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
STRONG CONVERGENCE FROM THE TRADES. E OF 115W...SEAS REMAIN IN
THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS...DOMINATED BY A
MERGING MIX OF NW...SW...AND S SWELL.
NLY GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SHOULD DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
HIGH PRES BEHIND IT MOVE FURTHER E...VEERING WINDS TO THE SE.
HOWEVER...A SMALL PLUME OF NEAR 20 KT N WINDS IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH 36 HOURS. FRESH NELY TRADES THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AND DOWNSTREAM SOME 300 MILES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN THROUGH 48 HOURS.
OTHER SMALL PLUMES OF OFFSHORE GAP WIND FLOW WERE NOTED IN
RECENT SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY...THROUGH THE GULF OF FONSECA...AND
ALONG THE GUATEMALA-EL SALVADOR BORDER.
$$
STRIPLING
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 230300
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262009
200 PM CHST MON NOV 23 2009
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W STILL MOVING SLOWLY...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WAS
RELOCATED ABOUT 80 MILES EAST...NEAR LATITUDE 8.2 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 148.7 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 225 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK
80 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PULUWAT
125 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SATAWAL
285 MILES EAST OF FARAULEP
450 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
730 MILES EAST OF YAP.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST AT AROUND 6 MPH.
LITTLE CHANGE IN MOTION IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. 26W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...
AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
REPEATING THE 100 PM POSITION...LATITUDE 8.2 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 148.7 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM TONIGHT.
$$
MUNDELL
000
ACPN50 PHFO 230152
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SUN NOV 22 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
$$
BIRCHARD
000
AXNT20 KNHC 222352
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 7N20W 4N35W 6N48W 5N53W
6N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N
BETWEEN 24W-29W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N
BETWEEN 45W-50W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 31N97W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENTS E TO A TRIPLE
POINT AT 30N85W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO S
GEORGIA ALONG 31N81W 32N80W. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS S
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 26N86W 22N94W
18N96W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE WARM
SECTOR OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN
79W-85W. ELSEWHERE...A 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST
OF TEXAS NEAR 28N97W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE EASTERN HALF OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
GULF PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
TEXAS AND THE NW GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NE TO THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN 24 HOURS...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING S TO THE CENTRAL GULF...AND A WARM FRONT CONTINUING TO
SOUTH TEXAS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS DOMINATES THE BASIN. A 1006 MB LOW
IS CENTERED INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N77W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND
COSTA RICA FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 77W-84W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 21N73W THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO 17N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA. PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
DOTS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA NAMELY N OF 15N AND W
OF 85W TO INCLUDE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
BROAD RIDGE WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 72W IS OVER THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA EXCEPT OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PREVAILS.
EXPECT...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
W OF 78W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N58W TO
26N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM
26N-28N BETWEEN 56W-58W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E
ALONG 31N49W 27N48W 24N49W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS W OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 48W-51W. A LONG
FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 31N15W 30N23W
27N30W 30N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MORE CONVECTION OVER THE N
FLORIDA COAST...AND MORE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N
OF 25N BETWEEN 45W-55W.
$$
FORMOSA
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 222334
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
700 PM EST DOMINGO 22 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABNT20 KNHC 222331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222331
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST SUN NOV 22 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222155
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN NOV 22 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 2100 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 08N77W TO 06N84W TO 07N107W TO 05N118W TO 09N129W TO
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120
NM OF AXIS E OF 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN
75 NM S OF AXIS FROM 94W TO 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS FROM 127W TO 139W.
...DISCUSSION...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL BROAD RIDGE CENTERED AT 08N126W MAINTAINS
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER MOST E PAC S OF 22N W OF 100W ADVECTING
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE NE FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ALONG ITCZ
W OF 125W.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM WRN TEXAS TO 28N117W KEEPS SUBSIDENCE
AND STABLE AIR N OF 22N...WHILE SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NICARAGUA TO 00N100W DOES LIKEWISE S OF 13N FROM 90W-100W.
HIGH PRES 1027 MB CENTERED NEAR 32N135W MAINTAINS TIGHT GRADIENT
ACROSS MUCH OF AREA N OF ITCZ AND W OF 115W...WITH LOW PRES OVER
SRN CALIFORNIA HELPING TO INCREASE N-NW WINDS ALONG COASTAL
WATERS BUT SPREADING S OFFSHORE OF BAJA PENINSULA W COAST TOO.
TRADE WINDS INCLUDE LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO FRESH BREEZE W OF
120W WHICH LASTS THROUGH ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRES TO
MOVE E AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WINDS N OF 28-29N IN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WITHIN 36 HRS.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS DIMINISH AS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
HIGH PRES BEHIND IT MOVE FURTHER E...VEERING WINDS SE...BUT
ALLOWS SMALL PLUME OF NEAR 20 KT N WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH 36
HOURS. FRESH BREEZE TO DIMINISH EARLY MON BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN WELL BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH BREEZE REMAINS ACROSS
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA GIVES NO SIGNS OF
MOVING OR WEAKENING.
$$
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 222122
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262009
800 AM CHST MON NOV 23 2009
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W STILL NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF CHUUK...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.8 DEGREES
EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 280 MILES WEST OF CHUUK
95 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF PULUWAT
55 MILES EAST OF SATAWAL
230 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP
455 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
675 MILES EAST OF YAP.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.
REPEATING THE 700 AM POSITION...LATITUDE 7.6 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 147.8 DEGREES EAST...NEARLY STATIONARY WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
$$
WILLIAMS/MIDDLEBROOKE
000
ACPN50 PHFO 221952
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SUN NOV 22 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
$$
BIRCHARD
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