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000
WTPQ33 PGUM 080201
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 18B
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
1200 PM CHST WED JUL 8 2015

...NANGKA HEADING WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CNMI...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH
OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND
ALAMAGAN ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74
MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 150.6E

ABOUT 350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 370 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 325 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 415 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED
AT LATITUDE 15.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.6 DEGREES EAST.
NANGKA WAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL NANGKA PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS NEAR PAGAN ISLAND THURSDAY EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 140 MPH...MAKING NANGKA A DANGEROUS
CATEGORY 4 TYPHOON. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT TO
105 MILES. TYPHOON NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY...AND MAY
BECOME A SUPER TYPHOON TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM.

$$

M AYDLETT



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 080141 CCA
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
1100 AM CHST WED JUL 8 2015

CORRECTION FOR POSITION

...TYPHOON NANGKA CONTINUES TOWARD PAGAN...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND
ALAMAGAN ISLANDS.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND
ALAMAGAN ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74
MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 150.6E

ABOUT 350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 370 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 325 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 415 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED
AT LATITUDE 15.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.6 DEGREES EAST.
NANGKA WAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL NANGKA PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS NEAR PAGAN ISLAND THURSDAY EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 140 MPH...MAKING NANGKA A DANGEROUS
CATEGORY 4 TYPHOON. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT TO
105 MILES. TYPHOON NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY...AND MAY
BECOME A SUPER TYPHOON TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM.

$$

M AYDLETT



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 080106
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
1100 AM CHST WED JUL 8 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA CONTINUES TOWARD PAGAN...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND
ALAMAGAN ISLANDS.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND
ALAMAGAN ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74
MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 150.6E

ABOUT 325 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 340 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 365 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 335 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 440 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED
AT LATITUDE 16.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.6 DEGREES EAST.
NANGKA WAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL NANGKA PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS NEAR PAGAN ISLAND THURSDAY EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 140 MPH...MAKING NANGKA A DANGEROUS
CATEGORY 4 TYPHOON. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT TO
105 MILES. TYPHOON NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY...AND MAY
BECOME A SUPER TYPHOON TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM.

$$

M AYDLETT



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 080020
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT MARTES 7 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 080020
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT MARTES 7 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 080020
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT MARTES 7 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 080020
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT MARTES 7 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE


000
ABNT20 KNHC 080019
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ABNT20 KNHC 080019
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABNT20 KNHC 080019
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ACPN50 PHFO 072351
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST TUE JUL 7 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1075 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII
CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL LIKELY FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST NEAR A WEAK...NEARLY
STATIONARY...SURFACE LOW LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...60 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

GIBBS






000
AXNT20 KNHC 072343
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N19W TO 18N17W MOVING W AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGH
BETWEEN 15W-20W THAT IS PROGRESSING OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
THIS EVENING. MOST CONVECTION REMAINS INLAND ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF WEST AFRICA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 09N-18N BETWEEN 05W-14W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N66W TO 17N65W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
CENTRAL ATLC MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 22N59W. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A 700 MB 30-35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM TO
THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N75W TO 18N75W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN VERY
BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 72W-
82W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT
THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
09N16W TO 10N29W TO 08N35W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N35W TO 07N43W TO 07N50W TO 06N54W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MAJORITY OF THE GULF BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N88W. WHILE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS NO EXTENSIVE DEEP MOISTURE BASIN-WIDE...VISIBLE
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS MOSTLY INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING
HOLDS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR
29N86W. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH E TO SE WINDS GENERALLY
PREVAIL AROUND THE RIDGE AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK AS THE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NE GULF
WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WITH THE PRESENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO...THE NW CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EAST
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN PROVIDING FOCUS WITHIN WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 16N W OF 75W.
WITH THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 75W...THE
PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES
WESTWARD. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY ALOFT DUE TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN VENEZUELA
AND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. OTHERWISE...THE PRIMARY IMPACT ACROSS
THE BASIN REMAINS AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES S OF 17N
BETWEEN 68W-82W THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...A FEW LATE EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING DUE TO EARLIER PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...
HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CONDITIONS ALOFT CONTINUE TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY WITHIN
WESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLAND NEAR 25N72W. LIFTING
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE ALSO LIKELY
ANOTHER FACTOR IN THE CONVECTION OCCURRING THIS EVENING. WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SLOWLY DRIFTING WEST...IT IS LIKELY A
REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF TODAY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 35N74W SW TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 28N82W. AMPLE MID-LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTLINES. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. TO THE SOUTHEAST...A
FAIRLY BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N72W THAT
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 23N-29N
BETWEEN 66W-76W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC
AND WESTERN CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N67W.
FINALLY...THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STATIONARY 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 072343
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N19W TO 18N17W MOVING W AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGH
BETWEEN 15W-20W THAT IS PROGRESSING OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
THIS EVENING. MOST CONVECTION REMAINS INLAND ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF WEST AFRICA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 09N-18N BETWEEN 05W-14W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N66W TO 17N65W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
CENTRAL ATLC MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 22N59W. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A 700 MB 30-35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM TO
THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N75W TO 18N75W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN VERY
BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 72W-
82W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT
THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
09N16W TO 10N29W TO 08N35W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N35W TO 07N43W TO 07N50W TO 06N54W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MAJORITY OF THE GULF BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N88W. WHILE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS NO EXTENSIVE DEEP MOISTURE BASIN-WIDE...VISIBLE
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS MOSTLY INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING
HOLDS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR
29N86W. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH E TO SE WINDS GENERALLY
PREVAIL AROUND THE RIDGE AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK AS THE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NE GULF
WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WITH THE PRESENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO...THE NW CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EAST
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN PROVIDING FOCUS WITHIN WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 16N W OF 75W.
WITH THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 75W...THE
PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES
WESTWARD. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY ALOFT DUE TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN VENEZUELA
AND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. OTHERWISE...THE PRIMARY IMPACT ACROSS
THE BASIN REMAINS AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES S OF 17N
BETWEEN 68W-82W THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...A FEW LATE EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING DUE TO EARLIER PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...
HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CONDITIONS ALOFT CONTINUE TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY WITHIN
WESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLAND NEAR 25N72W. LIFTING
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE ALSO LIKELY
ANOTHER FACTOR IN THE CONVECTION OCCURRING THIS EVENING. WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SLOWLY DRIFTING WEST...IT IS LIKELY A
REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF TODAY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 35N74W SW TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 28N82W. AMPLE MID-LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTLINES. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. TO THE SOUTHEAST...A
FAIRLY BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N72W THAT
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 23N-29N
BETWEEN 66W-76W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC
AND WESTERN CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N67W.
FINALLY...THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STATIONARY 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 072343
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N19W TO 18N17W MOVING W AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGH
BETWEEN 15W-20W THAT IS PROGRESSING OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
THIS EVENING. MOST CONVECTION REMAINS INLAND ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF WEST AFRICA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 09N-18N BETWEEN 05W-14W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N66W TO 17N65W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
CENTRAL ATLC MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 22N59W. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A 700 MB 30-35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM TO
THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N75W TO 18N75W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN VERY
BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 72W-
82W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT
THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
09N16W TO 10N29W TO 08N35W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N35W TO 07N43W TO 07N50W TO 06N54W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MAJORITY OF THE GULF BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N88W. WHILE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS NO EXTENSIVE DEEP MOISTURE BASIN-WIDE...VISIBLE
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS MOSTLY INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING
HOLDS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR
29N86W. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH E TO SE WINDS GENERALLY
PREVAIL AROUND THE RIDGE AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK AS THE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NE GULF
WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WITH THE PRESENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO...THE NW CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EAST
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN PROVIDING FOCUS WITHIN WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 16N W OF 75W.
WITH THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 75W...THE
PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES
WESTWARD. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY ALOFT DUE TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN VENEZUELA
AND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. OTHERWISE...THE PRIMARY IMPACT ACROSS
THE BASIN REMAINS AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES S OF 17N
BETWEEN 68W-82W THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...A FEW LATE EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING DUE TO EARLIER PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...
HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CONDITIONS ALOFT CONTINUE TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY WITHIN
WESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLAND NEAR 25N72W. LIFTING
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE ALSO LIKELY
ANOTHER FACTOR IN THE CONVECTION OCCURRING THIS EVENING. WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SLOWLY DRIFTING WEST...IT IS LIKELY A
REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF TODAY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 35N74W SW TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 28N82W. AMPLE MID-LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTLINES. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. TO THE SOUTHEAST...A
FAIRLY BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N72W THAT
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 23N-29N
BETWEEN 66W-76W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC
AND WESTERN CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N67W.
FINALLY...THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STATIONARY 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 072343
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N19W TO 18N17W MOVING W AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGH
BETWEEN 15W-20W THAT IS PROGRESSING OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
THIS EVENING. MOST CONVECTION REMAINS INLAND ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF WEST AFRICA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 09N-18N BETWEEN 05W-14W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N66W TO 17N65W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
CENTRAL ATLC MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 22N59W. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A 700 MB 30-35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM TO
THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N75W TO 18N75W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN VERY
BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 72W-
82W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT
THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
09N16W TO 10N29W TO 08N35W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N35W TO 07N43W TO 07N50W TO 06N54W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MAJORITY OF THE GULF BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N88W. WHILE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS NO EXTENSIVE DEEP MOISTURE BASIN-WIDE...VISIBLE
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS MOSTLY INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING
HOLDS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR
29N86W. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH E TO SE WINDS GENERALLY
PREVAIL AROUND THE RIDGE AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK AS THE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NE GULF
WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WITH THE PRESENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO...THE NW CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EAST
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN PROVIDING FOCUS WITHIN WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 16N W OF 75W.
WITH THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 75W...THE
PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES
WESTWARD. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY ALOFT DUE TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN VENEZUELA
AND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. OTHERWISE...THE PRIMARY IMPACT ACROSS
THE BASIN REMAINS AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES S OF 17N
BETWEEN 68W-82W THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...A FEW LATE EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING DUE TO EARLIER PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...
HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CONDITIONS ALOFT CONTINUE TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY WITHIN
WESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLAND NEAR 25N72W. LIFTING
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE ALSO LIKELY
ANOTHER FACTOR IN THE CONVECTION OCCURRING THIS EVENING. WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SLOWLY DRIFTING WEST...IT IS LIKELY A
REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF TODAY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 35N74W SW TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 28N82W. AMPLE MID-LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTLINES. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. TO THE SOUTHEAST...A
FAIRLY BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N72W THAT
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 23N-29N
BETWEEN 66W-76W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC
AND WESTERN CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N67W.
FINALLY...THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STATIONARY 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 072335
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 7 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large area of low
pressure located about 1075 miles east-southeast of the Big Island
of Hawaii continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and
a tropical cyclone will likely form later tonight while the system
moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. The low is forecast to
cross 140W longitude and move into the central Pacific basin later
tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico later this week. Some
development of this system is possible by this weekend while the
low moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 072335
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 7 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large area of low
pressure located about 1075 miles east-southeast of the Big Island
of Hawaii continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and
a tropical cyclone will likely form later tonight while the system
moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. The low is forecast to
cross 140W longitude and move into the central Pacific basin later
tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico later this week. Some
development of this system is possible by this weekend while the
low moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 072335
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 7 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large area of low
pressure located about 1075 miles east-southeast of the Big Island
of Hawaii continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and
a tropical cyclone will likely form later tonight while the system
moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. The low is forecast to
cross 140W longitude and move into the central Pacific basin later
tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico later this week. Some
development of this system is possible by this weekend while the
low moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 072335
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 7 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large area of low
pressure located about 1075 miles east-southeast of the Big Island
of Hawaii continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and
a tropical cyclone will likely form later tonight while the system
moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. The low is forecast to
cross 140W longitude and move into the central Pacific basin later
tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico later this week. Some
development of this system is possible by this weekend while the
low moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
WTPQ83 PGUM 072324
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 AM CHST WED JUL 8 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA STILL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...INCLUDING AGRIHAN...
PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN ISLANDS. PEOPLE IN SAIPAN AND TINIAN SHOULD
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS STORM IN CASE THE TYPHOON MAKES AN
UNEXPECTED TRACK DEVIATION FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.6 EAST.

ABOUT  410 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  430 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT  460 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  390 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  475 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM

TYPHOON NANGKA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 140 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES TYPHOON NANGKA NEAR AGRIHAN...
PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS THURSDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. NANGKA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEED.
NANGKA REMAINS A STRONG CATEGORY 4 TYPHOON AND IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY TODAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING A SUPER TYPHOON TONIGHT.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE TO BE
NORTH OF THE SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER ANY DEVIATION OF THE
TRACK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...OR ANY UNEXPECTED EXPANSION OF THE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ON THE TYPHOON`S SOUTHERN PERIPHERY COULD
PLACE THESE WINDS INTO THE SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS.

...AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE PREPARED TO SEEK STURDY SHELTER IF A TYPHOON WARNING IS ISSUED.
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK BRINGS DAMAGING WINDS TO THE AREA DURING
THE LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY...STEADILY INCREASING TO TYPHOON FORCE
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE OF
NANGKA AND INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL WILL BECOME DANGEROUS BY TONIGHT.
FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
COULD LAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 7 TO 10 FEET ACROSS THE AREA AND HAZARDOUS FOR
SMALL CRAFT. THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AND COULD RANGE FROM AT LEAST 15 FEET TO MORE THAN 30 FEET BY
THURSDAY.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET OR MORE CAN BE EXPECTED AS TYPHOON
NANGKA APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

&&

...PEOPLE OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN...
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK PLACES THE PATH OF THE TYPHOON WELL TO
THE NORTH OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN. IN ADDITION...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
AS MEASURED FROM SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THESE DAMAGING
WINDS DO NOT EXTEND ANY FURTHER THAN 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF
THIS RELATIVELY COMPACT STORM. HOWEVER...PLEASE KEEP ALERT TO ANY
CHANGES TO THIS SITUATION.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

M AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 072221
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 AM CHST WED JUL 8 2015

...TYPHOON CHAN-HOM MAINTAINING INTENSITY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 133.8E

ABOUT  615 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA
ABOUT  835 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  840 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 133.8 DEGREES
EAST.  MOVEMENT IS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 90 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 145 MILES. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 072221
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 AM CHST WED JUL 8 2015

...TYPHOON CHAN-HOM MAINTAINING INTENSITY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 133.8E

ABOUT  615 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA
ABOUT  835 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  840 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 133.8 DEGREES
EAST.  MOVEMENT IS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 90 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 145 MILES. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 072221
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 AM CHST WED JUL 8 2015

...TYPHOON CHAN-HOM MAINTAINING INTENSITY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 133.8E

ABOUT  615 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA
ABOUT  835 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  840 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 133.8 DEGREES
EAST.  MOVEMENT IS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 90 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 145 MILES. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 072221
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 AM CHST WED JUL 8 2015

...TYPHOON CHAN-HOM MAINTAINING INTENSITY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 133.8E

ABOUT  615 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA
ABOUT  835 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  840 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 133.8 DEGREES
EAST.  MOVEMENT IS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 90 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 145 MILES. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 072221
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 AM CHST WED JUL 8 2015

...TYPHOON CHAN-HOM MAINTAINING INTENSITY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 133.8E

ABOUT  615 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA
ABOUT  835 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  840 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 133.8 DEGREES
EAST.  MOVEMENT IS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 90 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 145 MILES. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 072221
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 AM CHST WED JUL 8 2015

...TYPHOON CHAN-HOM MAINTAINING INTENSITY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 133.8E

ABOUT  615 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA
ABOUT  835 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  840 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 133.8 DEGREES
EAST.  MOVEMENT IS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 90 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 145 MILES. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 072221
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 AM CHST WED JUL 8 2015

...TYPHOON CHAN-HOM MAINTAINING INTENSITY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 133.8E

ABOUT  615 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA
ABOUT  835 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  840 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 133.8 DEGREES
EAST.  MOVEMENT IS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 90 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 145 MILES. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 072221
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 AM CHST WED JUL 8 2015

...TYPHOON CHAN-HOM MAINTAINING INTENSITY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 133.8E

ABOUT  615 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA
ABOUT  835 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  840 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 133.8 DEGREES
EAST.  MOVEMENT IS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 90 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 145 MILES. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

AYDLETT



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 072159
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
800 AM CHST WED JUL 8 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA PAUSES ITS INTENSIFICATION...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 151.6E

ABOUT  410 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  430 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT  460 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  390 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  475 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  540 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED
AT LATITUDE 15.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.6 DEGREES EAST.
NANGKA WAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL NANGKA PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS NEAR PAGAN ISLAND THURSDAY EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 140 MPH...MAKING NANGKA A DANGEROUS
CATEGORY 4 TYPHOON. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT TO
105 MILES. TYPHOON NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY...AND MAY
BECOME A SUPER TYPHOON TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
AT 1100 AM THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072037
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUL 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

LOW PRES NEAR 13.5N138.5W...OR ABOUT 1050 NM ESE OF THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII...AT 1005 MB IS MOVING TO THE WNW AT 14 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
150 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO BETWEEN 180 NM AND 420 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND THIS LOW HAS A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W FROM 08N TO 15N IS MOVING W AROUND
15 KT. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED A WIND SHIFT AT THE
SURFACE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS AND CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE
ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE AS IS DESCRIBED IN THE CONVECTION
SECTION BELOW.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 08N100W TO
05N118W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 90W...FROM 03N TO 08N
BETWEEN 94W AND 102W...AND ALSO WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W AND 111W.

ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN
93W AND 100W WHERE LEFTOVER ENERGY LIKELY RESULTING FROM A
TROPICAL WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

NEARLY STATIONARY 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 28N131W
EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE TO THE SE TO NEAR 17N108W. OUTSIDE OF THE
INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER MENTIONED ABOVE...
WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 120W
ALONG WITH SEAS THAT ARE LESS THAN 8 FT.

A LARGE AREA OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS SWEEPING TO THE N-NE
FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE W OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. THIS
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHWARD COVERING THE
MAJORITY OF THE S CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRES GRADIENT NEAR THE GULF AREA IS
EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN BY EARLY THU MORNING AS AN APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. AS A RESULT...A SURGE OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE GULF LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS OF THU. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 8-9 FT BY SUNRISE THU AS A
RESULT OF THESE WINDS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SPILL ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS CONFIRMED BY EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER DATA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO FRESH TO
STRONG MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ENHANCEMENT. RESULTANT SEAS OF
8-10 FT WILL PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE GULF TOWARD THE SW-W
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE IN THE FAR
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING
AS SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DEEPENS.

$$
LEWITSKY


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072037
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUL 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

LOW PRES NEAR 13.5N138.5W...OR ABOUT 1050 NM ESE OF THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII...AT 1005 MB IS MOVING TO THE WNW AT 14 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
150 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO BETWEEN 180 NM AND 420 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND THIS LOW HAS A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W FROM 08N TO 15N IS MOVING W AROUND
15 KT. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED A WIND SHIFT AT THE
SURFACE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS AND CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE
ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE AS IS DESCRIBED IN THE CONVECTION
SECTION BELOW.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 08N100W TO
05N118W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 90W...FROM 03N TO 08N
BETWEEN 94W AND 102W...AND ALSO WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W AND 111W.

ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN
93W AND 100W WHERE LEFTOVER ENERGY LIKELY RESULTING FROM A
TROPICAL WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

NEARLY STATIONARY 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 28N131W
EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE TO THE SE TO NEAR 17N108W. OUTSIDE OF THE
INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER MENTIONED ABOVE...
WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 120W
ALONG WITH SEAS THAT ARE LESS THAN 8 FT.

A LARGE AREA OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS SWEEPING TO THE N-NE
FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE W OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. THIS
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHWARD COVERING THE
MAJORITY OF THE S CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRES GRADIENT NEAR THE GULF AREA IS
EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN BY EARLY THU MORNING AS AN APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. AS A RESULT...A SURGE OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE GULF LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS OF THU. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 8-9 FT BY SUNRISE THU AS A
RESULT OF THESE WINDS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SPILL ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS CONFIRMED BY EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER DATA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO FRESH TO
STRONG MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ENHANCEMENT. RESULTANT SEAS OF
8-10 FT WILL PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE GULF TOWARD THE SW-W
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE IN THE FAR
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING
AS SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DEEPENS.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 071854
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
500 AM CHST WED JUL 8 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 152.2E

ABOUT  455 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  475 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT  505 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  430 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  510 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  520 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED
AT LATITUDE 15.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.2 DEGREES EAST.
NANGKA WAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL NANGKA PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS NEAR AGRIHAN THURSDAY EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 140 MPH...MAKING NANGKA A DANGEROUS
CATEGORY 4 TYPHOON. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT TO
105 MILES. TYPHOON NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A
SUPER TYPHOON LATER TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE



000
AXNT20 KNHC 071754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND IS NOW LOCATED ALONG 19W FROM 07N TO 17N...MOVING W
AT AN ESTIMATED 20 KT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A SURGE OF MODERATE TO HIGH
MOISTURE S OF 16N ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY
SHOWS SAHARAN AIR WITH DUST N OF 16N. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 17W AND 21W. THIS
CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE CROSSED THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING AND IS
NOW OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 62W/63W FROM 09N TO
17N...MOVING W AT NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE MOISTURE S OF 13N WITH LOW MOISTURE N OF
13N. IN ADDITION...STRONG SHEAR IS KEEPING ANY CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE TO THE EAST OF
THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 17N
BETWEEN 53W TO 63W. SOME OF THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NORTHERN CONVECTION MAY BE PRODUCING LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE DRY UNDERLYING AIR MASS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 72W FROM 11N
TO 18N...MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. LOW TO
MODERATE MOISTURE IS S OF 15N IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE.
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 13N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16 TO
09N25W TO 08N37W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES THROUGH
07N45W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 07N58W. OTHER THAN
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN ATLC TROPICAL WAVE...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH E OF 34W...AND WITHIN 50 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 47W
AND 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE GULF BASIN CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N87W. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND MODERATE MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N TO 27N
BETWEEN 81W AND 89W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 29N86W IS PART OF A LARGER SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLC WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS N FL TO THE TX COAST.
VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT COVER THE GULF E OF 87W. 10
TO 15 KT SE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SIMILAR WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ONGOING INTERACTION
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COMBINED WITH
MARGINAL MOISTURE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 80W AND 88W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN N OF 13N IS COVERED IN DRY AIR AND IS
CONVECTION FREE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH THE NEARBY PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH.
WINDS OF E TO NE TRADE WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT COVER THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77.5W. SEAS OF 8 TO
13 FEET ARE OCCURRING IN THE AREA. MAINLY 15 TO 25 KT TRADE
WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. TWO TROPICAL
WAVES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
LITTLE CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVES AS THEY MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE ISLAND TODAY WHICH IS INHIBITING
CONVECTION. SAHARAN AIR WITH DUST IS ALSO BEING REPORTED OVER
THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N79W
TO 31N79W AND NORTHWARD OFFSHORE THE MID ATLC COAST. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 31N..
INCLUDING OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND S FL. AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 25N72W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
22N TO 28N BETWEEN 69W AND 73W. SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WITH A
1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N64W AND ANOTHER 1025 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 34N36W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS.  OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. MODELS
ARE FORECASTING FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE E COAST AND N
BAHAMAS TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 071754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND IS NOW LOCATED ALONG 19W FROM 07N TO 17N...MOVING W
AT AN ESTIMATED 20 KT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A SURGE OF MODERATE TO HIGH
MOISTURE S OF 16N ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY
SHOWS SAHARAN AIR WITH DUST N OF 16N. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 17W AND 21W. THIS
CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE CROSSED THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING AND IS
NOW OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 62W/63W FROM 09N TO
17N...MOVING W AT NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE MOISTURE S OF 13N WITH LOW MOISTURE N OF
13N. IN ADDITION...STRONG SHEAR IS KEEPING ANY CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE TO THE EAST OF
THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 17N
BETWEEN 53W TO 63W. SOME OF THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NORTHERN CONVECTION MAY BE PRODUCING LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE DRY UNDERLYING AIR MASS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 72W FROM 11N
TO 18N...MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. LOW TO
MODERATE MOISTURE IS S OF 15N IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE.
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 13N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16 TO
09N25W TO 08N37W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES THROUGH
07N45W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 07N58W. OTHER THAN
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN ATLC TROPICAL WAVE...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH E OF 34W...AND WITHIN 50 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 47W
AND 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE GULF BASIN CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N87W. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND MODERATE MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N TO 27N
BETWEEN 81W AND 89W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 29N86W IS PART OF A LARGER SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLC WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS N FL TO THE TX COAST.
VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT COVER THE GULF E OF 87W. 10
TO 15 KT SE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SIMILAR WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ONGOING INTERACTION
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COMBINED WITH
MARGINAL MOISTURE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 80W AND 88W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN N OF 13N IS COVERED IN DRY AIR AND IS
CONVECTION FREE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH THE NEARBY PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH.
WINDS OF E TO NE TRADE WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT COVER THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77.5W. SEAS OF 8 TO
13 FEET ARE OCCURRING IN THE AREA. MAINLY 15 TO 25 KT TRADE
WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. TWO TROPICAL
WAVES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
LITTLE CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVES AS THEY MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE ISLAND TODAY WHICH IS INHIBITING
CONVECTION. SAHARAN AIR WITH DUST IS ALSO BEING REPORTED OVER
THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N79W
TO 31N79W AND NORTHWARD OFFSHORE THE MID ATLC COAST. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 31N..
INCLUDING OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND S FL. AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 25N72W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
22N TO 28N BETWEEN 69W AND 73W. SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WITH A
1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N64W AND ANOTHER 1025 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 34N36W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS.  OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. MODELS
ARE FORECASTING FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE E COAST AND N
BAHAMAS TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
ACPN50 PHFO 071746
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST TUE JUL 7 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII
CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL LIKELY FORM LATER TODAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST NEAR A WEAK...NEARLY
STATIONARY...SURFACE LOW LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...40 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

$$

GIBBS





000
ACPN50 PHFO 071746
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST TUE JUL 7 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII
CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL LIKELY FORM LATER TODAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST NEAR A WEAK...NEARLY
STATIONARY...SURFACE LOW LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...40 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

$$

GIBBS






000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071733
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 7 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large area of low
pressure located about 1200 miles east-southeast of the Big Island
of Hawaii continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and
a tropical cyclone will likely form later today or tonight while the
system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico later this week. Some
development of this system is possible by this weekend while the low
moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071733
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 7 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large area of low
pressure located about 1200 miles east-southeast of the Big Island
of Hawaii continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and
a tropical cyclone will likely form later today or tonight while the
system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico later this week. Some
development of this system is possible by this weekend while the low
moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071733
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 7 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large area of low
pressure located about 1200 miles east-southeast of the Big Island
of Hawaii continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and
a tropical cyclone will likely form later today or tonight while the
system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico later this week. Some
development of this system is possible by this weekend while the low
moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071733
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 7 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large area of low
pressure located about 1200 miles east-southeast of the Big Island
of Hawaii continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and
a tropical cyclone will likely form later today or tonight while the
system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico later this week. Some
development of this system is possible by this weekend while the low
moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 071726
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT MARTES 7 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BANN



000
ABNT20 KNHC 071722
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Bann



000
ABNT20 KNHC 071722
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Bann



000
ABNT20 KNHC 071722
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Bann



000
ABNT20 KNHC 071722
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Bann



000
ABNT20 KNHC 071722
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Bann


000
ABNT20 KNHC 071722
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Bann


000
ABNT20 KNHC 071722
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Bann


000
ABNT20 KNHC 071722
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Bann


000
WTPQ83 PGUM 071703
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 AM CHST WED JUL 8 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA STILL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...INCLUDING AGRIHAN...
PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN ISLANDS. PEOPLE IN SAIPAN AND TINIAN SHOULD
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION STORM IN CASE THE TYPHOON MAKES ANY UNEXPECTED
TRACK DEVIATION FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.9 EAST.

ABOUT  510 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  530 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT  555 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  480 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  550 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  495 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK

TYPHOON NANGKA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 140 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES TYPHOON NANGKA TOWARD AGRIHAN...
PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING. NANGKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED
TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
SPEED. NANGKA IS NOW A STRONG CATEGORY 4 TYPHOON AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST IS
FOR DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE TO BE WELL NORTH OF THE SAIPAN
COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER ANY DEVIATION OF THE TRACK FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH... OR ANY UNEXPECTED EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL WIND FORCES ON
THE TYPHOON`S SOUTHERN PERIPHERY COULD PLACE THESE WINDS INTO THE
SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS.

...AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE PREPARED TO SEEK STURDY SHELTER IF A TYPHOON WARNING IS ISSUED.
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK BRINGS DAMAGING WINDS TO THE AREA DURING
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY. SEAS AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE OF NANGKA AND INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL WILL
BECOME DANGEROUS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM
YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
COULD LAST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 7 TO 10 FEET ACROSS THE AREA AND HAZARDOUS FOR
SMALL CRAFT. THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AND COULD RANGE FROM AT LEAST 15 FEET TO MORE THAN 30 FEET BY
THURSDAY.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET OR MORE CAN BE EXPECTED AS TYPHOON
NANGKA APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

&&

...PEOPLE OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN...

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK PLACES THE PATH OF THE TYPHOON WELL TO
THE NORTH OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN. IN ADDITION...TROPICAL FORCE WINDS
AS MEASURED FROM SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THESE DAMAGING
WINDS DO NOT EXTEND ANY FURTHER THAN 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF
THIS RELATIVELY COMPACT STORM. HOWEVER...PLEASE KEEP ALERT TO ANY
CHANGES TO THIS SITUATION.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 900 AM CHST THIS MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

KLEESCHULTE


000
WTPQ83 PGUM 071703
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 AM CHST WED JUL 8 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA STILL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...INCLUDING AGRIHAN...
PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN ISLANDS. PEOPLE IN SAIPAN AND TINIAN SHOULD
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION STORM IN CASE THE TYPHOON MAKES ANY UNEXPECTED
TRACK DEVIATION FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.9 EAST.

ABOUT  510 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  530 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT  555 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  480 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  550 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  495 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK

TYPHOON NANGKA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 140 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES TYPHOON NANGKA TOWARD AGRIHAN...
PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING. NANGKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED
TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
SPEED. NANGKA IS NOW A STRONG CATEGORY 4 TYPHOON AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST IS
FOR DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE TO BE WELL NORTH OF THE SAIPAN
COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER ANY DEVIATION OF THE TRACK FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH... OR ANY UNEXPECTED EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL WIND FORCES ON
THE TYPHOON`S SOUTHERN PERIPHERY COULD PLACE THESE WINDS INTO THE
SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS.

...AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE PREPARED TO SEEK STURDY SHELTER IF A TYPHOON WARNING IS ISSUED.
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK BRINGS DAMAGING WINDS TO THE AREA DURING
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY. SEAS AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE OF NANGKA AND INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL WILL
BECOME DANGEROUS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM
YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
COULD LAST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 7 TO 10 FEET ACROSS THE AREA AND HAZARDOUS FOR
SMALL CRAFT. THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AND COULD RANGE FROM AT LEAST 15 FEET TO MORE THAN 30 FEET BY
THURSDAY.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET OR MORE CAN BE EXPECTED AS TYPHOON
NANGKA APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

&&

...PEOPLE OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN...

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK PLACES THE PATH OF THE TYPHOON WELL TO
THE NORTH OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN. IN ADDITION...TROPICAL FORCE WINDS
AS MEASURED FROM SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THESE DAMAGING
WINDS DO NOT EXTEND ANY FURTHER THAN 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF
THIS RELATIVELY COMPACT STORM. HOWEVER...PLEASE KEEP ALERT TO ANY
CHANGES TO THIS SITUATION.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 900 AM CHST THIS MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

KLEESCHULTE



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 071548
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
200 AM CHST WED JUL 8 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 152.9E

ABOUT  510 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  530 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT  555 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  480 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  550 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  495 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED
AT LATITUDE 14.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.9 DEGREES EAST.
NANGKA WAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL NAGKA PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS NEAR AGRIHAN THURSDAY EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 140 MPH...MAKING NANGKA A
DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 TYPHOON. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUT TO 105 MILES. TYPHOON NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...AND MAY
BECOME A SUPER TYPHOON LATER TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 AM.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 071548
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
200 AM CHST WED JUL 8 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 152.9E

ABOUT  510 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  530 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT  555 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  480 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  550 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  495 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED
AT LATITUDE 14.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.9 DEGREES EAST.
NANGKA WAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL NAGKA PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS NEAR AGRIHAN THURSDAY EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 140 MPH...MAKING NANGKA A
DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 TYPHOON. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUT TO 105 MILES. TYPHOON NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...AND MAY
BECOME A SUPER TYPHOON LATER TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 AM.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071520
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUL 7 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 13N137W IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS IMPROVING AND
A WIDE BAND OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS EVIDENT
WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY
SUGGESTS IT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS IT MOVES NW INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC N
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W BETWEEN 07N-14N IS MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. IT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS S OF THE WAVE
BETWEEN 102W-106W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N86W TO 06N101W TO
06N106W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N106W TO 07N112W TO 04N120W TO
05N127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 09N E OF 86W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 07N
BETWEEN 92W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...

NEARLY STATIONARY 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 27N130W
EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS N OF 20N...W OF
115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH THE DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 13N137W IS PRODUCING AN REGION OF
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN 240 NM NE OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER...WITH MAX SEAS TO 10-11 FT NE OF THE LOW NEAR 16N136W.

STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 0250 UTC SHOWED 25-30 KT WINDS
CENTERED NEAR 10.7N 87.3W. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NE WINDS
WILL PULSE IN A DIURNAL CYCLE THE NEXT 2 DAYS WITH HIGHEST WINDS
AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY 8 FT OR LESS BETWEEN 88W-92W DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE AREA OF MAX WINDS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.

A LARGE AREA OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS SWEEPING NORTHWARD FROM
THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE W OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. THIS SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTH-NORTHEAST...COVERING SOUTHERN
WATERS BETWEEN 95W-120W THROUGH WED..THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THU
AND FRI.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED
TO TIGHTEN THU MORNING AS AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PASSES S OF THE AREA. EXPECT NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS N OF 15N THU...DIMINISHING BRIEFLY IN THE
EVENING...THEN PICKING UP AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT MAX
SEAS TO 8-9 FT ON FRIDAY.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071520
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUL 7 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 13N137W IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS IMPROVING AND
A WIDE BAND OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS EVIDENT
WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY
SUGGESTS IT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS IT MOVES NW INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC N
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W BETWEEN 07N-14N IS MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. IT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS S OF THE WAVE
BETWEEN 102W-106W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N86W TO 06N101W TO
06N106W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N106W TO 07N112W TO 04N120W TO
05N127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 09N E OF 86W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 07N
BETWEEN 92W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...

NEARLY STATIONARY 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 27N130W
EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS N OF 20N...W OF
115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH THE DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 13N137W IS PRODUCING AN REGION OF
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN 240 NM NE OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER...WITH MAX SEAS TO 10-11 FT NE OF THE LOW NEAR 16N136W.

STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 0250 UTC SHOWED 25-30 KT WINDS
CENTERED NEAR 10.7N 87.3W. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NE WINDS
WILL PULSE IN A DIURNAL CYCLE THE NEXT 2 DAYS WITH HIGHEST WINDS
AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY 8 FT OR LESS BETWEEN 88W-92W DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE AREA OF MAX WINDS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.

A LARGE AREA OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS SWEEPING NORTHWARD FROM
THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE W OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. THIS SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTH-NORTHEAST...COVERING SOUTHERN
WATERS BETWEEN 95W-120W THROUGH WED..THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THU
AND FRI.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED
TO TIGHTEN THU MORNING AS AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PASSES S OF THE AREA. EXPECT NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS N OF 15N THU...DIMINISHING BRIEFLY IN THE
EVENING...THEN PICKING UP AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT MAX
SEAS TO 8-9 FT ON FRIDAY.

$$
MUNDELL


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 071516
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST WED JUL 8 2015

...TYPHOON CHAN-HOM MAINTAINING INTENSITY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 135.0E

ABOUT  750 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  740 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  700 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.0 DEGREES
EAST.  MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 12 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 90 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 175 MILES. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 071516
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST WED JUL 8 2015

...TYPHOON CHAN-HOM MAINTAINING INTENSITY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 135.0E

ABOUT  750 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  740 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  700 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.0 DEGREES
EAST.  MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 12 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 90 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 175 MILES. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 071516
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST WED JUL 8 2015

...TYPHOON CHAN-HOM MAINTAINING INTENSITY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 135.0E

ABOUT  750 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  740 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  700 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.0 DEGREES
EAST.  MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 12 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 90 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 175 MILES. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 071516
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST WED JUL 8 2015

...TYPHOON CHAN-HOM MAINTAINING INTENSITY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 135.0E

ABOUT  750 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  740 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  700 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.0 DEGREES
EAST.  MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 12 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 90 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 175 MILES. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 071516
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST WED JUL 8 2015

...TYPHOON CHAN-HOM MAINTAINING INTENSITY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 135.0E

ABOUT  750 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  740 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  700 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.0 DEGREES
EAST.  MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 12 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 90 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 175 MILES. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 071516
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST WED JUL 8 2015

...TYPHOON CHAN-HOM MAINTAINING INTENSITY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 135.0E

ABOUT  750 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  740 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  700 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.0 DEGREES
EAST.  MOVEMENT IS TO THE WEST AT 12 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 90 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 175 MILES. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE


000
WTPQ33 PGUM 071310
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
1100 PM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 153.4E

ABOUT  545 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  565 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT  595 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  515 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  585 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  485 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED
AT LATITUDE 14.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 153.4 DEGREES EAST.
NANGKA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN THIS HEADING FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES NANGKA TO THE
NORTHERN CNMI ON THURSDAY EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE UP TO 135 MPH...A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4
TYPHOON. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...WHILE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120
MILES FROM THE CENTER. TYPHOON NANGKA IS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

EDSON



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 071310
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
1100 PM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 153.4E

ABOUT  545 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  565 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT  595 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  515 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  585 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  485 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED
AT LATITUDE 14.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 153.4 DEGREES EAST.
NANGKA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN THIS HEADING FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES NANGKA TO THE
NORTHERN CNMI ON THURSDAY EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE UP TO 135 MPH...A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4
TYPHOON. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...WHILE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120
MILES FROM THE CENTER. TYPHOON NANGKA IS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

EDSON



000
ACPN50 PHFO 071152
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST TUE JUL 7 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII
HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND SATELLITE WIND DATA
INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
DEFINED OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
LIKELY FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST NEAR A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY
SURFACE LOW LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF HILO...
HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII INCREASED IN COVERAGE...AND HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER
ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...40 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

$$

HOUSTON






000
ACPN50 PHFO 071152
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST TUE JUL 7 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII
HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND SATELLITE WIND DATA
INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
DEFINED OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
LIKELY FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST NEAR A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY
SURFACE LOW LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF HILO...
HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII INCREASED IN COVERAGE...AND HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER
ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...40 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

$$

HOUSTON






000
ACPN50 PHFO 071152
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST TUE JUL 7 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII
HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND SATELLITE WIND DATA
INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
DEFINED OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
LIKELY FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST NEAR A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY
SURFACE LOW LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF HILO...
HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII INCREASED IN COVERAGE...AND HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER
ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...40 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

$$

HOUSTON






000
ACPN50 PHFO 071152
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST TUE JUL 7 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII
HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND SATELLITE WIND DATA
INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
DEFINED OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
LIKELY FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST NEAR A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY
SURFACE LOW LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF HILO...
HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII INCREASED IN COVERAGE...AND HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER
ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...40 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

$$

HOUSTON






000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071135
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUL 7 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large area of low
pressure located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Big Island
of Hawaii have continued to become better organized, and satellite
wind data indicate that the surface circulation has become a little
better defined overnight.  Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for further development, and a tropical cyclone will
likely form later today or tonight while the system moves west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of southern Mexico later this week.  Some development of this
system is possible by this weekend while the low moves west-
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071135
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUL 7 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large area of low
pressure located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Big Island
of Hawaii have continued to become better organized, and satellite
wind data indicate that the surface circulation has become a little
better defined overnight.  Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for further development, and a tropical cyclone will
likely form later today or tonight while the system moves west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of southern Mexico later this week.  Some development of this
system is possible by this weekend while the low moves west-
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071135
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUL 7 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large area of low
pressure located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Big Island
of Hawaii have continued to become better organized, and satellite
wind data indicate that the surface circulation has become a little
better defined overnight.  Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for further development, and a tropical cyclone will
likely form later today or tonight while the system moves west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of southern Mexico later this week.  Some development of this
system is possible by this weekend while the low moves west-
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071135
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUL 7 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large area of low
pressure located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Big Island
of Hawaii have continued to become better organized, and satellite
wind data indicate that the surface circulation has become a little
better defined overnight.  Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for further development, and a tropical cyclone will
likely form later today or tonight while the system moves west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of southern Mexico later this week.  Some development of this
system is possible by this weekend while the low moves west-
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 071133
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT MARTES 7 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 071133
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT MARTES 7 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 071133
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT MARTES 7 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 071133
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT MARTES 7 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS


000
ABNT20 KNHC 071124
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


000
ABNT20 KNHC 071124
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


000
ABNT20 KNHC 071124
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



000
WTPQ83 PGUM 071116
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA STILL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...INCLUDING AGRIHAN...
PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN ISLANDS. PEOPLE IN SAIPAN AND TINIAN SHOULD
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION IN CASE THE TYPHOON MAKES ANY UNEXPECTED
TRACK DEVIATION FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 154.1 EAST.

ABOUT  605 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  620 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT  650 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  565 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  630 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  465 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK

TYPHOON NANGKA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 125 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES TYPHOON NANGKA TOWARD AGRIHAN...
PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING. NANGKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED
TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER TOMORROW WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN SPEED. NANGKA IS NOW A STRONG CATEGORY 3 TYPHOON AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST IS
FOR DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE TO BE WELL NORTH OF THE SAIPAN
COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER ANY DEVIATION OF THE TRACK FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH... OR ANY UNEXPECTED EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL WIND FORCES ON
THE TYPHOON`S SOUTHERN PERIPHERY COULD PLACE THESE WINDS INTO THE
SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS.

...AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE PREPARED TO SEEK STURDY SHELTER IF A TYPHOON WARNING IS ISSUED.
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK BRINGS DAMAGING WINDS TO THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY. SEAS AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE OF NANGKA AND INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL WILL BECOME
DANGEROUS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS COULD
LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 7 TO 10 FEET ACROSS THE AREA AND HAZARDOUS FOR
SMALL CRAFT. THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AND COULD RANGE FROM AT LEAST 15 FEET TO MORE THAN 30 FEET BY
THURSDAY.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET OR MORE CAN BE EXPECTED AS TYPHOON
NANGKA APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

...PEOPLE OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN...

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK PLACES THE PATH OF THE TYPHOON WELL TO
THE NORTH OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN. IN ADDITION...TROPICAL FORCE WINDS
AS MEASURED FROM SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THESE DAMAGING
WINDS DO NOT EXTEND ANY FURTHER THAN 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF
THIS RELATIVELY COMPACT STORM. HOWEVER...PLEASE KEEP ALERT TO ANY
CHANGES TO THIS SITUATION.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 AM CHST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

EDSON



000
WTPQ83 PGUM 071116
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA STILL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...INCLUDING AGRIHAN...
PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN ISLANDS. PEOPLE IN SAIPAN AND TINIAN SHOULD
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION IN CASE THE TYPHOON MAKES ANY UNEXPECTED
TRACK DEVIATION FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 154.1 EAST.

ABOUT  605 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  620 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT  650 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  565 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  630 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  465 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK

TYPHOON NANGKA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 125 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES TYPHOON NANGKA TOWARD AGRIHAN...
PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING. NANGKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED
TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER TOMORROW WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN SPEED. NANGKA IS NOW A STRONG CATEGORY 3 TYPHOON AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST IS
FOR DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE TO BE WELL NORTH OF THE SAIPAN
COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER ANY DEVIATION OF THE TRACK FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH... OR ANY UNEXPECTED EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL WIND FORCES ON
THE TYPHOON`S SOUTHERN PERIPHERY COULD PLACE THESE WINDS INTO THE
SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS.

...AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE PREPARED TO SEEK STURDY SHELTER IF A TYPHOON WARNING IS ISSUED.
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK BRINGS DAMAGING WINDS TO THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY. SEAS AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE OF NANGKA AND INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL WILL BECOME
DANGEROUS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS COULD
LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 7 TO 10 FEET ACROSS THE AREA AND HAZARDOUS FOR
SMALL CRAFT. THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AND COULD RANGE FROM AT LEAST 15 FEET TO MORE THAN 30 FEET BY
THURSDAY.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET OR MORE CAN BE EXPECTED AS TYPHOON
NANGKA APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

...PEOPLE OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN...

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK PLACES THE PATH OF THE TYPHOON WELL TO
THE NORTH OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN. IN ADDITION...TROPICAL FORCE WINDS
AS MEASURED FROM SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THESE DAMAGING
WINDS DO NOT EXTEND ANY FURTHER THAN 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF
THIS RELATIVELY COMPACT STORM. HOWEVER...PLEASE KEEP ALERT TO ANY
CHANGES TO THIS SITUATION.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 AM CHST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

EDSON



000
WTPQ83 PGUM 071116
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA STILL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...INCLUDING AGRIHAN...
PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN ISLANDS. PEOPLE IN SAIPAN AND TINIAN SHOULD
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION IN CASE THE TYPHOON MAKES ANY UNEXPECTED
TRACK DEVIATION FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 154.1 EAST.

ABOUT  605 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  620 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT  650 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  565 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  630 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  465 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK

TYPHOON NANGKA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 125 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES TYPHOON NANGKA TOWARD AGRIHAN...
PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING. NANGKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED
TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER TOMORROW WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN SPEED. NANGKA IS NOW A STRONG CATEGORY 3 TYPHOON AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST IS
FOR DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE TO BE WELL NORTH OF THE SAIPAN
COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER ANY DEVIATION OF THE TRACK FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH... OR ANY UNEXPECTED EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL WIND FORCES ON
THE TYPHOON`S SOUTHERN PERIPHERY COULD PLACE THESE WINDS INTO THE
SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS.

...AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE PREPARED TO SEEK STURDY SHELTER IF A TYPHOON WARNING IS ISSUED.
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK BRINGS DAMAGING WINDS TO THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY. SEAS AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE OF NANGKA AND INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL WILL BECOME
DANGEROUS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS COULD
LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 7 TO 10 FEET ACROSS THE AREA AND HAZARDOUS FOR
SMALL CRAFT. THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AND COULD RANGE FROM AT LEAST 15 FEET TO MORE THAN 30 FEET BY
THURSDAY.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET OR MORE CAN BE EXPECTED AS TYPHOON
NANGKA APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

...PEOPLE OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN...

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK PLACES THE PATH OF THE TYPHOON WELL TO
THE NORTH OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN. IN ADDITION...TROPICAL FORCE WINDS
AS MEASURED FROM SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THESE DAMAGING
WINDS DO NOT EXTEND ANY FURTHER THAN 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF
THIS RELATIVELY COMPACT STORM. HOWEVER...PLEASE KEEP ALERT TO ANY
CHANGES TO THIS SITUATION.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 AM CHST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

EDSON



000
WTPQ83 PGUM 071116
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA STILL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...INCLUDING AGRIHAN...
PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN ISLANDS. PEOPLE IN SAIPAN AND TINIAN SHOULD
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION IN CASE THE TYPHOON MAKES ANY UNEXPECTED
TRACK DEVIATION FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 154.1 EAST.

ABOUT  605 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  620 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT  650 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  565 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  630 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  465 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK

TYPHOON NANGKA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 125 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES TYPHOON NANGKA TOWARD AGRIHAN...
PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING. NANGKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED
TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER TOMORROW WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN SPEED. NANGKA IS NOW A STRONG CATEGORY 3 TYPHOON AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST IS
FOR DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE TO BE WELL NORTH OF THE SAIPAN
COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER ANY DEVIATION OF THE TRACK FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH... OR ANY UNEXPECTED EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL WIND FORCES ON
THE TYPHOON`S SOUTHERN PERIPHERY COULD PLACE THESE WINDS INTO THE
SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS.

...AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE PREPARED TO SEEK STURDY SHELTER IF A TYPHOON WARNING IS ISSUED.
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK BRINGS DAMAGING WINDS TO THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY. SEAS AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE OF NANGKA AND INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL WILL BECOME
DANGEROUS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS COULD
LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 7 TO 10 FEET ACROSS THE AREA AND HAZARDOUS FOR
SMALL CRAFT. THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AND COULD RANGE FROM AT LEAST 15 FEET TO MORE THAN 30 FEET BY
THURSDAY.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET OR MORE CAN BE EXPECTED AS TYPHOON
NANGKA APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

...PEOPLE OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN...

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK PLACES THE PATH OF THE TYPHOON WELL TO
THE NORTH OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN. IN ADDITION...TROPICAL FORCE WINDS
AS MEASURED FROM SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THESE DAMAGING
WINDS DO NOT EXTEND ANY FURTHER THAN 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF
THIS RELATIVELY COMPACT STORM. HOWEVER...PLEASE KEEP ALERT TO ANY
CHANGES TO THIS SITUATION.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 AM CHST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

EDSON



000
AXNT20 KNHC 071047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THE APPROXIMATE LOCATION OF ITS AXIS IS ALONG 17W AND
IS BEING ENGULFED BY SAHARAN DRY AIR ACCORDING TO METEOSAT
SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING IMAGERY. DUST IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
WAVE ENVIRONMENT IN METEOSAT IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN
THE SOUTHERN REGION OF THE WAVE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
APPROXIMATELY NEAR 58W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN
DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS
HINDERING CONVECTION IN THAT REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 50W
AND 57W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH AXIS
APPROXIMATELY NEAR 69W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICT DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN WAVE
ENVIRONMENT. BOTH THE DRY AIR AND STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR
HINDER CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
09N30W TO 07N38W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 07N38W TO 07N48W TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR
04N52W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 07N-
12N BETWEEN 14W AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE GULF BASIN CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY BROAD
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N86W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE SE CONUS TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF AND FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN
TO THE WESTERN BASIN. MOISTURE ON THE EASTERN BASIN ALONG WITH
LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE LOW ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FROM 27N TO 29N E OF 84W. STRONG DEEP LATER WIND SHEAR
HINDER CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING HOLD ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB CENTER NEAR
27N85W. N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN
89W AND 92W WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING WILL PERSIST THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR ACROSS GREAT
PORTIONS OF THE BASIN...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA WHERE DUST AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE BEING
REPORTED. THE IMAGERY SHOW A MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE THAT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVER HAITI SW ADJACENT WATERS AND JAMAICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BEING ENHANCED BY
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS CURRENTLY
NEAR 69W AND ANOTHER WAVE NEAR 58W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT...SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. DEEP CONVECTION IS ONLY OCCURRING ACROSS N-NW
COLOMBIA...PANAMA...SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND COSTA
RICA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS S OF 11N.
OTHERWISE...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE FROM 10.5N TO 15N
BETWEEN 72W AND 80W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 13 FT. E WINDS OF 20 TO
25 KT ARE FROM 10.5N TO 13N W OF 80W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 11 FT.
E TO SE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND
73W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF
17N BETWEEN 72W AND 83W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 11 FT IN NE TO E
SWELL. THE AREA OF STRONGEST TRADES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BETWEEN 68W-82W THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD.

...HISPANIOLA...

A PATCH OF MOIST AIR MOVED FROM INLAND HISPANIOLA TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE IT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OVER HAITI SW ADJACENT WATERS AND JAMAICA. SAHARAN DRY AIR
AND DUST HAS MOVED INTO THE ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THROUGH WED...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER BUT HAZY
CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N71W ALONG
WITH A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FROM 21N TO 30N BETWEEN 66W AND 74W. SIMILAR WEATHER IS
BETWEEN THE E FLORIDA PENINSULA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N37W AND A 1023 MB
HIGH NEAR 31N65W. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THE NEXT THREE DAYS. FOR TROPICAL WAVES
INFORMATION...SEE SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 071047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THE APPROXIMATE LOCATION OF ITS AXIS IS ALONG 17W AND
IS BEING ENGULFED BY SAHARAN DRY AIR ACCORDING TO METEOSAT
SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING IMAGERY. DUST IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
WAVE ENVIRONMENT IN METEOSAT IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN
THE SOUTHERN REGION OF THE WAVE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
APPROXIMATELY NEAR 58W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN
DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS
HINDERING CONVECTION IN THAT REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 50W
AND 57W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH AXIS
APPROXIMATELY NEAR 69W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICT DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN WAVE
ENVIRONMENT. BOTH THE DRY AIR AND STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR
HINDER CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
09N30W TO 07N38W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 07N38W TO 07N48W TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR
04N52W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 07N-
12N BETWEEN 14W AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE GULF BASIN CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY BROAD
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N86W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE SE CONUS TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF AND FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN
TO THE WESTERN BASIN. MOISTURE ON THE EASTERN BASIN ALONG WITH
LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE LOW ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FROM 27N TO 29N E OF 84W. STRONG DEEP LATER WIND SHEAR
HINDER CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING HOLD ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB CENTER NEAR
27N85W. N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN
89W AND 92W WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING WILL PERSIST THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR ACROSS GREAT
PORTIONS OF THE BASIN...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA WHERE DUST AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE BEING
REPORTED. THE IMAGERY SHOW A MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE THAT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVER HAITI SW ADJACENT WATERS AND JAMAICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BEING ENHANCED BY
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS CURRENTLY
NEAR 69W AND ANOTHER WAVE NEAR 58W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT...SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. DEEP CONVECTION IS ONLY OCCURRING ACROSS N-NW
COLOMBIA...PANAMA...SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND COSTA
RICA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS S OF 11N.
OTHERWISE...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE FROM 10.5N TO 15N
BETWEEN 72W AND 80W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 13 FT. E WINDS OF 20 TO
25 KT ARE FROM 10.5N TO 13N W OF 80W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 11 FT.
E TO SE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND
73W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF
17N BETWEEN 72W AND 83W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 11 FT IN NE TO E
SWELL. THE AREA OF STRONGEST TRADES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BETWEEN 68W-82W THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD.

...HISPANIOLA...

A PATCH OF MOIST AIR MOVED FROM INLAND HISPANIOLA TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE IT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OVER HAITI SW ADJACENT WATERS AND JAMAICA. SAHARAN DRY AIR
AND DUST HAS MOVED INTO THE ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THROUGH WED...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER BUT HAZY
CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N71W ALONG
WITH A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FROM 21N TO 30N BETWEEN 66W AND 74W. SIMILAR WEATHER IS
BETWEEN THE E FLORIDA PENINSULA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N37W AND A 1023 MB
HIGH NEAR 31N65W. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THE NEXT THREE DAYS. FOR TROPICAL WAVES
INFORMATION...SEE SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 071047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THE APPROXIMATE LOCATION OF ITS AXIS IS ALONG 17W AND
IS BEING ENGULFED BY SAHARAN DRY AIR ACCORDING TO METEOSAT
SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING IMAGERY. DUST IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
WAVE ENVIRONMENT IN METEOSAT IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN
THE SOUTHERN REGION OF THE WAVE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
APPROXIMATELY NEAR 58W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN
DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS
HINDERING CONVECTION IN THAT REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 50W
AND 57W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH AXIS
APPROXIMATELY NEAR 69W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICT DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN WAVE
ENVIRONMENT. BOTH THE DRY AIR AND STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR
HINDER CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
09N30W TO 07N38W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 07N38W TO 07N48W TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR
04N52W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 07N-
12N BETWEEN 14W AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE GULF BASIN CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY BROAD
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N86W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE SE CONUS TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF AND FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN
TO THE WESTERN BASIN. MOISTURE ON THE EASTERN BASIN ALONG WITH
LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE LOW ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FROM 27N TO 29N E OF 84W. STRONG DEEP LATER WIND SHEAR
HINDER CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING HOLD ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB CENTER NEAR
27N85W. N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN
89W AND 92W WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING WILL PERSIST THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR ACROSS GREAT
PORTIONS OF THE BASIN...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA WHERE DUST AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE BEING
REPORTED. THE IMAGERY SHOW A MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE THAT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVER HAITI SW ADJACENT WATERS AND JAMAICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BEING ENHANCED BY
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS CURRENTLY
NEAR 69W AND ANOTHER WAVE NEAR 58W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT...SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. DEEP CONVECTION IS ONLY OCCURRING ACROSS N-NW
COLOMBIA...PANAMA...SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND COSTA
RICA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS S OF 11N.
OTHERWISE...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE FROM 10.5N TO 15N
BETWEEN 72W AND 80W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 13 FT. E WINDS OF 20 TO
25 KT ARE FROM 10.5N TO 13N W OF 80W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 11 FT.
E TO SE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND
73W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF
17N BETWEEN 72W AND 83W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 11 FT IN NE TO E
SWELL. THE AREA OF STRONGEST TRADES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BETWEEN 68W-82W THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD.

...HISPANIOLA...

A PATCH OF MOIST AIR MOVED FROM INLAND HISPANIOLA TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE IT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OVER HAITI SW ADJACENT WATERS AND JAMAICA. SAHARAN DRY AIR
AND DUST HAS MOVED INTO THE ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THROUGH WED...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER BUT HAZY
CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N71W ALONG
WITH A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FROM 21N TO 30N BETWEEN 66W AND 74W. SIMILAR WEATHER IS
BETWEEN THE E FLORIDA PENINSULA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N37W AND A 1023 MB
HIGH NEAR 31N65W. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THE NEXT THREE DAYS. FOR TROPICAL WAVES
INFORMATION...SEE SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 071047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THE APPROXIMATE LOCATION OF ITS AXIS IS ALONG 17W AND
IS BEING ENGULFED BY SAHARAN DRY AIR ACCORDING TO METEOSAT
SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING IMAGERY. DUST IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
WAVE ENVIRONMENT IN METEOSAT IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN
THE SOUTHERN REGION OF THE WAVE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
APPROXIMATELY NEAR 58W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN
DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS
HINDERING CONVECTION IN THAT REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 50W
AND 57W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH AXIS
APPROXIMATELY NEAR 69W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICT DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN WAVE
ENVIRONMENT. BOTH THE DRY AIR AND STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR
HINDER CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
09N30W TO 07N38W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 07N38W TO 07N48W TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR
04N52W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 07N-
12N BETWEEN 14W AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE GULF BASIN CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY BROAD
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N86W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE SE CONUS TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF AND FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN
TO THE WESTERN BASIN. MOISTURE ON THE EASTERN BASIN ALONG WITH
LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE LOW ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FROM 27N TO 29N E OF 84W. STRONG DEEP LATER WIND SHEAR
HINDER CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING HOLD ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB CENTER NEAR
27N85W. N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN
89W AND 92W WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING WILL PERSIST THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR ACROSS GREAT
PORTIONS OF THE BASIN...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA WHERE DUST AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE BEING
REPORTED. THE IMAGERY SHOW A MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE THAT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVER HAITI SW ADJACENT WATERS AND JAMAICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BEING ENHANCED BY
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS CURRENTLY
NEAR 69W AND ANOTHER WAVE NEAR 58W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT...SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. DEEP CONVECTION IS ONLY OCCURRING ACROSS N-NW
COLOMBIA...PANAMA...SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND COSTA
RICA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS S OF 11N.
OTHERWISE...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE FROM 10.5N TO 15N
BETWEEN 72W AND 80W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 13 FT. E WINDS OF 20 TO
25 KT ARE FROM 10.5N TO 13N W OF 80W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 11 FT.
E TO SE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND
73W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF
17N BETWEEN 72W AND 83W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 11 FT IN NE TO E
SWELL. THE AREA OF STRONGEST TRADES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BETWEEN 68W-82W THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD.

...HISPANIOLA...

A PATCH OF MOIST AIR MOVED FROM INLAND HISPANIOLA TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE IT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OVER HAITI SW ADJACENT WATERS AND JAMAICA. SAHARAN DRY AIR
AND DUST HAS MOVED INTO THE ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THROUGH WED...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER BUT HAZY
CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N71W ALONG
WITH A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FROM 21N TO 30N BETWEEN 66W AND 74W. SIMILAR WEATHER IS
BETWEEN THE E FLORIDA PENINSULA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N37W AND A 1023 MB
HIGH NEAR 31N65W. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THE NEXT THREE DAYS. FOR TROPICAL WAVES
INFORMATION...SEE SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070950
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUL 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N135.5W AT 07/0600
UTC...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
LOW CENTER...FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 136W AND 139W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 134W AND
140W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET
TO 12 FEET ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 600 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND WITHIN 480 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED GRADUALLY. SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE
CENTER IS NOT WELL-DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THE CHANCE OF FORMATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS IS HIGH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W/102W...FROM 14N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 101W AND 104W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N78W TO 09N87W 08N92W 08N98W
06N103W 06N105W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N105W 07N112W TO
04N123W AND 04N125W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE COASTAL PLAINS/THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA FROM 03N TO 10N...FROM 10N SOUTHWARD TO LAND BETWEEN
80W AND PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...IN THE COASTAL WATERS/THE
COASTAL PLAINS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 07N TO 09N...FROM
08N TO 10N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W...FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 90W AND
93W...FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 101W AND 104W.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL PULSE IN A DIURNAL CYCLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
ENHANCEMENT. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FEET DURING
THE TIMES OF THE FASTEST WIND SPEEDS...THEY WILL PROPAGATE OFF
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE GULF REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL IS MOVING TO THE
NORTH OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND 125W.
THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
GRADUALLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE LOCAL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS NEAR THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THURSDAY
MORNING UNTIL THURSDAY AROUND NOON...STOPPING BRIEFLY...AND THEN
HAPPENING AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 38N130W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
CENTER COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 30N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AND 140W...AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 25N130W BEYOND
28N112W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 20N112W 17N117W
12N119W 05N122W TO 1N121W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 22N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A GULF OF
MEXICO 25N86W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...TO 14N95W IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 92W AND 97W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 17N116W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N128W...BEYOND 30N140W. MAINLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FROM 21N NORTHWARD...FROM THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WESTWARD...AND OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
1005 MB DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N135.5W.

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070950
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUL 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N135.5W AT 07/0600
UTC...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
LOW CENTER...FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 136W AND 139W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 134W AND
140W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET
TO 12 FEET ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 600 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND WITHIN 480 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED GRADUALLY. SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE
CENTER IS NOT WELL-DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THE CHANCE OF FORMATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS IS HIGH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W/102W...FROM 14N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 101W AND 104W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N78W TO 09N87W 08N92W 08N98W
06N103W 06N105W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N105W 07N112W TO
04N123W AND 04N125W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE COASTAL PLAINS/THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA FROM 03N TO 10N...FROM 10N SOUTHWARD TO LAND BETWEEN
80W AND PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...IN THE COASTAL WATERS/THE
COASTAL PLAINS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 07N TO 09N...FROM
08N TO 10N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W...FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 90W AND
93W...FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 101W AND 104W.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL PULSE IN A DIURNAL CYCLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
ENHANCEMENT. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FEET DURING
THE TIMES OF THE FASTEST WIND SPEEDS...THEY WILL PROPAGATE OFF
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE GULF REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL IS MOVING TO THE
NORTH OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND 125W.
THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
GRADUALLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE LOCAL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS NEAR THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THURSDAY
MORNING UNTIL THURSDAY AROUND NOON...STOPPING BRIEFLY...AND THEN
HAPPENING AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 38N130W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
CENTER COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 30N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AND 140W...AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 25N130W BEYOND
28N112W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 20N112W 17N117W
12N119W 05N122W TO 1N121W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 22N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A GULF OF
MEXICO 25N86W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...TO 14N95W IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 92W AND 97W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 17N116W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N128W...BEYOND 30N140W. MAINLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FROM 21N NORTHWARD...FROM THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WESTWARD...AND OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
1005 MB DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N135.5W.

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070950
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUL 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N135.5W AT 07/0600
UTC...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
LOW CENTER...FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 136W AND 139W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 134W AND
140W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET
TO 12 FEET ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 600 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND WITHIN 480 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED GRADUALLY. SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE
CENTER IS NOT WELL-DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THE CHANCE OF FORMATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS IS HIGH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W/102W...FROM 14N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 101W AND 104W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N78W TO 09N87W 08N92W 08N98W
06N103W 06N105W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N105W 07N112W TO
04N123W AND 04N125W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE COASTAL PLAINS/THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA FROM 03N TO 10N...FROM 10N SOUTHWARD TO LAND BETWEEN
80W AND PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...IN THE COASTAL WATERS/THE
COASTAL PLAINS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 07N TO 09N...FROM
08N TO 10N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W...FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 90W AND
93W...FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 101W AND 104W.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL PULSE IN A DIURNAL CYCLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
ENHANCEMENT. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FEET DURING
THE TIMES OF THE FASTEST WIND SPEEDS...THEY WILL PROPAGATE OFF
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE GULF REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL IS MOVING TO THE
NORTH OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND 125W.
THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
GRADUALLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE LOCAL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS NEAR THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THURSDAY
MORNING UNTIL THURSDAY AROUND NOON...STOPPING BRIEFLY...AND THEN
HAPPENING AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 38N130W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
CENTER COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 30N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AND 140W...AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 25N130W BEYOND
28N112W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 20N112W 17N117W
12N119W 05N122W TO 1N121W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 22N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A GULF OF
MEXICO 25N86W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...TO 14N95W IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 92W AND 97W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 17N116W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N128W...BEYOND 30N140W. MAINLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FROM 21N NORTHWARD...FROM THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WESTWARD...AND OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
1005 MB DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N135.5W.

$$
MT


000
WTPQ33 PGUM 070949
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
800 PM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA STILL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 154.1E

ABOUT  605 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  620 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT  650 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  565 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  630 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  465 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK


MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED
AT LATITUDE 13.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 154.1 DEGREES EAST.
NANGKA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH BUT IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
TAKES NANGKA TO THE NORTHERN CNMI ON THURSDAY EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE UP TO 125 MPH...A STRONG CATEGORY 3
TYPHOON. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...WHILE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120
MILES FROM THE CENTER. TYPHOON NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

EDSON



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 070927
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 PM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON CHAN-HOM MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS WHILE
INTENSIFYING...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 135.9E

ABOUT  690 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  685 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  750 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.9 DEGREES
EAST.  CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS HEADING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE UP TO 90 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

EDSON



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 070927
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 PM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON CHAN-HOM MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS WHILE
INTENSIFYING...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 135.9E

ABOUT  690 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  685 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  750 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.9 DEGREES
EAST.  CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS HEADING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE UP TO 90 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

EDSON



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 070927
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 PM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON CHAN-HOM MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS WHILE
INTENSIFYING...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 135.9E

ABOUT  690 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  685 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  750 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.9 DEGREES
EAST.  CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS HEADING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE UP TO 90 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

EDSON



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 070927
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 PM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON CHAN-HOM MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS WHILE
INTENSIFYING...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 135.9E

ABOUT  690 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  685 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  750 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.9 DEGREES
EAST.  CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS HEADING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE UP TO 90 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

EDSON



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 070714
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
500 PM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA STILL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 154.5E

ABOUT  635 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  655 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT  680 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  595 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  655 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  465 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT  530 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE EYE OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED
AT LATITUDE 13.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 154.5 DEGREES EAST.
NANGKA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH BUT IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
TAKES NANGKA TO THE NORTHERN CNMI ON THURSDAY EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE UP TO 115 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 20 MILES FROM THE CENTER...WHILE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TYPHOON
NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 1100 PM TONIGHT.

$$

EDSON



000
AXNT20 KNHC 070601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
APPROXIMATELY NEAR 56W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN
DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS
HINDERING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH AXIS
APPROXIMATELY NEAR 68W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICT DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN WAVE
ENVIRONMENT. BOTH THE DRY AIR AND STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR
HINDER CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
09N27W TO 07N35W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 07N35W TO 06N46W TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR
04N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-12N E OF 30W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 33W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE GULF BASIN CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY BROAD
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N86W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE SE CONUS TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF AND FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN
TO THE WESTERN BASIN. MOISTURE ON THE EASTERN BASIN ALONG WITH
LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE LOW ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS E OF 84W. STRONG DEEP LATER WIND SHEAR HINDER CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING HOLD ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB CENTER NEAR 27N85W. N TO NE
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W
WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL
PERSIST THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR ACROSS GREAT
PORTIONS OF THE BASIN...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA WHERE DUST AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE BEING
REPORTED. THE IMAGERY SHOW A MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE THAT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVER HAITI SW ADJACENT WATERS AND JAMAICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BEING ENHANCED BY
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS CURRENTLY NEAR
68W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT...SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. DEEP CONVECTION IS
ONLY OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA...PANAMA...SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
S OF 11N. OTHERWISE...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE FROM
10.5N TO 15N W OF 70W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 13 FT. E WINDS OF 20
TO 25 KT ARE FROM 15N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W WITH SEAS TO
8 FT. WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF 17.5N BETWEEN
70W AND 80W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 9 FT IN NE TO E SWELL. THE AREA
OF STRONGEST TRADES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 68W-82W
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD.

...HISPANIOLA...

A PATCH OF MOIST AIR MOVED FROM INLAND HISPANIOLA TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE IT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OVER HAITI SW ADJACENT WATERS AND JAMAICA. SAHARAN DRY AIR
AND DUST HAS MOVED INTO THE ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THROUGH WED...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER BUT HAZY
CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N70W ALONG
WITH A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FROM 24N TO 29N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W. SIMILAR WEATHER IS
BETWEEN THE SE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N37W AND A 1025 MB
HIGH NEAR 31N63W. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THE NEXT THREE DAYS. FOR TROPICAL WAVES INFORMATION...SEE
SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 070601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
APPROXIMATELY NEAR 56W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN
DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS
HINDERING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH AXIS
APPROXIMATELY NEAR 68W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICT DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN WAVE
ENVIRONMENT. BOTH THE DRY AIR AND STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR
HINDER CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
09N27W TO 07N35W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 07N35W TO 06N46W TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR
04N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-12N E OF 30W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 33W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE GULF BASIN CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY BROAD
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N86W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE SE CONUS TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF AND FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN
TO THE WESTERN BASIN. MOISTURE ON THE EASTERN BASIN ALONG WITH
LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE LOW ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS E OF 84W. STRONG DEEP LATER WIND SHEAR HINDER CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING HOLD ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB CENTER NEAR 27N85W. N TO NE
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W
WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL
PERSIST THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR ACROSS GREAT
PORTIONS OF THE BASIN...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA WHERE DUST AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE BEING
REPORTED. THE IMAGERY SHOW A MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE THAT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVER HAITI SW ADJACENT WATERS AND JAMAICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BEING ENHANCED BY
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS CURRENTLY NEAR
68W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT...SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. DEEP CONVECTION IS
ONLY OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA...PANAMA...SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
S OF 11N. OTHERWISE...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE FROM
10.5N TO 15N W OF 70W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 13 FT. E WINDS OF 20
TO 25 KT ARE FROM 15N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W WITH SEAS TO
8 FT. WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF 17.5N BETWEEN
70W AND 80W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 9 FT IN NE TO E SWELL. THE AREA
OF STRONGEST TRADES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 68W-82W
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD.

...HISPANIOLA...

A PATCH OF MOIST AIR MOVED FROM INLAND HISPANIOLA TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE IT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OVER HAITI SW ADJACENT WATERS AND JAMAICA. SAHARAN DRY AIR
AND DUST HAS MOVED INTO THE ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THROUGH WED...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER BUT HAZY
CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N70W ALONG
WITH A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FROM 24N TO 29N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W. SIMILAR WEATHER IS
BETWEEN THE SE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N37W AND A 1025 MB
HIGH NEAR 31N63W. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THE NEXT THREE DAYS. FOR TROPICAL WAVES INFORMATION...SEE
SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 070601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
APPROXIMATELY NEAR 56W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN
DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS
HINDERING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH AXIS
APPROXIMATELY NEAR 68W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICT DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN WAVE
ENVIRONMENT. BOTH THE DRY AIR AND STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR
HINDER CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
09N27W TO 07N35W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 07N35W TO 06N46W TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR
04N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-12N E OF 30W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 33W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE GULF BASIN CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY BROAD
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N86W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE SE CONUS TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF AND FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN
TO THE WESTERN BASIN. MOISTURE ON THE EASTERN BASIN ALONG WITH
LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE LOW ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS E OF 84W. STRONG DEEP LATER WIND SHEAR HINDER CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING HOLD ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB CENTER NEAR 27N85W. N TO NE
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W
WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL
PERSIST THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR ACROSS GREAT
PORTIONS OF THE BASIN...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA WHERE DUST AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE BEING
REPORTED. THE IMAGERY SHOW A MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE THAT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVER HAITI SW ADJACENT WATERS AND JAMAICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BEING ENHANCED BY
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS CURRENTLY NEAR
68W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT...SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. DEEP CONVECTION IS
ONLY OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA...PANAMA...SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
S OF 11N. OTHERWISE...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE FROM
10.5N TO 15N W OF 70W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 13 FT. E WINDS OF 20
TO 25 KT ARE FROM 15N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W WITH SEAS TO
8 FT. WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF 17.5N BETWEEN
70W AND 80W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 9 FT IN NE TO E SWELL. THE AREA
OF STRONGEST TRADES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 68W-82W
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD.

...HISPANIOLA...

A PATCH OF MOIST AIR MOVED FROM INLAND HISPANIOLA TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE IT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OVER HAITI SW ADJACENT WATERS AND JAMAICA. SAHARAN DRY AIR
AND DUST HAS MOVED INTO THE ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THROUGH WED...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER BUT HAZY
CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N70W ALONG
WITH A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FROM 24N TO 29N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W. SIMILAR WEATHER IS
BETWEEN THE SE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N37W AND A 1025 MB
HIGH NEAR 31N63W. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THE NEXT THREE DAYS. FOR TROPICAL WAVES INFORMATION...SEE
SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 070601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
APPROXIMATELY NEAR 56W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN
DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS
HINDERING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH AXIS
APPROXIMATELY NEAR 68W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICT DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN WAVE
ENVIRONMENT. BOTH THE DRY AIR AND STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR
HINDER CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
09N27W TO 07N35W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 07N35W TO 06N46W TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR
04N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-12N E OF 30W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 33W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE GULF BASIN CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY BROAD
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N86W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE SE CONUS TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF AND FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN
TO THE WESTERN BASIN. MOISTURE ON THE EASTERN BASIN ALONG WITH
LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE LOW ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS E OF 84W. STRONG DEEP LATER WIND SHEAR HINDER CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING HOLD ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB CENTER NEAR 27N85W. N TO NE
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W
WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL
PERSIST THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR ACROSS GREAT
PORTIONS OF THE BASIN...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA WHERE DUST AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE BEING
REPORTED. THE IMAGERY SHOW A MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE THAT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVER HAITI SW ADJACENT WATERS AND JAMAICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BEING ENHANCED BY
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS CURRENTLY NEAR
68W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT...SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. DEEP CONVECTION IS
ONLY OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA...PANAMA...SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
S OF 11N. OTHERWISE...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE FROM
10.5N TO 15N W OF 70W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 13 FT. E WINDS OF 20
TO 25 KT ARE FROM 15N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W WITH SEAS TO
8 FT. WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF 17.5N BETWEEN
70W AND 80W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 9 FT IN NE TO E SWELL. THE AREA
OF STRONGEST TRADES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 68W-82W
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD.

...HISPANIOLA...

A PATCH OF MOIST AIR MOVED FROM INLAND HISPANIOLA TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE IT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OVER HAITI SW ADJACENT WATERS AND JAMAICA. SAHARAN DRY AIR
AND DUST HAS MOVED INTO THE ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THROUGH WED...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER BUT HAZY
CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N70W ALONG
WITH A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FROM 24N TO 29N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W. SIMILAR WEATHER IS
BETWEEN THE SE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N37W AND A 1025 MB
HIGH NEAR 31N63W. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THE NEXT THREE DAYS. FOR TROPICAL WAVES INFORMATION...SEE
SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
ACPN50 PHFO 070550
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST MON JUL 6 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...SATELLITE
DATA SUGGEST THAT THE LOW DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
LIKELY FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...70 PERCENT.

2. PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A WEAK...NEARLY
STATIONARY SURFACE LOW ARE LOCATED ABOUT 775 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST
OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED THIS EVENING...
AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST
OF HONOLULU...HAWAII HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS NEARLY STATIONARY SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...30 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

$$

HOUSTON







000
ACPN50 PHFO 070550
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST MON JUL 6 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...SATELLITE
DATA SUGGEST THAT THE LOW DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
LIKELY FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...70 PERCENT.

2. PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A WEAK...NEARLY
STATIONARY SURFACE LOW ARE LOCATED ABOUT 775 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST
OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED THIS EVENING...
AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST
OF HONOLULU...HAWAII HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS NEARLY STATIONARY SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...30 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

$$

HOUSTON








000
ACPN50 PHFO 070550
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST MON JUL 6 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...SATELLITE
DATA SUGGEST THAT THE LOW DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
LIKELY FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...70 PERCENT.

2. PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A WEAK...NEARLY
STATIONARY SURFACE LOW ARE LOCATED ABOUT 775 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST
OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED THIS EVENING...
AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST
OF HONOLULU...HAWAII HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS NEARLY STATIONARY SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...30 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

$$

HOUSTON








000
ACPN50 PHFO 070550
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST MON JUL 6 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...SATELLITE
DATA SUGGEST THAT THE LOW DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
LIKELY FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...70 PERCENT.

2. PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A WEAK...NEARLY
STATIONARY SURFACE LOW ARE LOCATED ABOUT 775 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST
OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED THIS EVENING...
AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST
OF HONOLULU...HAWAII HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS NEARLY STATIONARY SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...30 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

$$

HOUSTON








000
ACPN50 PHFO 070550
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST MON JUL 6 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...SATELLITE
DATA SUGGEST THAT THE LOW DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
LIKELY FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...70 PERCENT.

2. PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A WEAK...NEARLY
STATIONARY SURFACE LOW ARE LOCATED ABOUT 775 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST
OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED THIS EVENING...
AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST
OF HONOLULU...HAWAII HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS NEARLY STATIONARY SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...30 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

$$

HOUSTON








000
ABPZ20 KNHC 070536
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large area of
low pressure located about 1350 miles east-southeast of the Big
Island of Hawaii are gradually becoming better organized. However,
satellite data suggest that the low does not have a well-defined
center at this time.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and a tropical cyclone will likely form
over the next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of southern Mexico later this week.  Some development of this
system is possible this weekend while the low moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 070536
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large area of
low pressure located about 1350 miles east-southeast of the Big
Island of Hawaii are gradually becoming better organized. However,
satellite data suggest that the low does not have a well-defined
center at this time.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and a tropical cyclone will likely form
over the next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of southern Mexico later this week.  Some development of this
system is possible this weekend while the low moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
ABNT20 KNHC 070505
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
ABNT20 KNHC 070505
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
ABNT20 KNHC 070505
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
WTPQ83 PGUM 070339
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 PM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA STILL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...INCLUDING AGRIHAN...
PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.0 EAST.

ABOUT  680 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT  730 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  635 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  690 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  445 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT  485 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI

TYPHOON NANGKA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES TYPHOON NANGKA TOWARD AGRIHAN...
PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.
NANGKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEED. NANGKA IS EXPECTED
TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE PREPARED TO SEEK STURDY SHELTER IF A TYPHOON WARNING IS ISSUED.
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK BRINGS DAMAGING WINDS TO THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE
OF NANGKA AND INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL WILL BECOME DANGEROUS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS COULD
LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 7 TO 10 FEET ACROSS THE AREA AND HAZARDOUS FOR
SMALL CRAFT. THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AND COULD RANGE FROM AT LEAST 15 FEET TO MORE THAN 30 FEET BY
THURSDAY.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED AS TYPHOON NANGKA
APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 900 PM CHST THIS EVENING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

SIMPSON


000
WTPQ83 PGUM 070339
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 PM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA STILL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...INCLUDING AGRIHAN...
PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.0 EAST.

ABOUT  680 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT  730 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  635 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  690 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  445 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT  485 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI

TYPHOON NANGKA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES TYPHOON NANGKA TOWARD AGRIHAN...
PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.
NANGKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEED. NANGKA IS EXPECTED
TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE PREPARED TO SEEK STURDY SHELTER IF A TYPHOON WARNING IS ISSUED.
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK BRINGS DAMAGING WINDS TO THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE
OF NANGKA AND INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL WILL BECOME DANGEROUS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS COULD
LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 7 TO 10 FEET ACROSS THE AREA AND HAZARDOUS FOR
SMALL CRAFT. THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AND COULD RANGE FROM AT LEAST 15 FEET TO MORE THAN 30 FEET BY
THURSDAY.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED AS TYPHOON NANGKA
APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 900 PM CHST THIS EVENING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

SIMPSON



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 070244
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
200 PM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA STILL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 155.0E

ABOUT  680 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT  730 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  635 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  690 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  445 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT  485 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WILL BE
NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.0 DEGREES EAST.
NANGKA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH BUT IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES NANGKA TO THE
NORTHERN CNMI ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE UP TO 110 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 20 MILES FROM THE CENTER...WHILE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TYPHOON
NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

SIMPSON



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 070244
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
200 PM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA STILL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 155.0E

ABOUT  680 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT  730 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  635 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  690 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  445 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT  485 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WILL BE
NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.0 DEGREES EAST.
NANGKA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH BUT IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES NANGKA TO THE
NORTHERN CNMI ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE UP TO 110 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 20 MILES FROM THE CENTER...WHILE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TYPHOON
NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

SIMPSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070242
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUL 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

LOW PRES 1005 MB IS LOCATED NEAR 12N134W...OR ABOUT 1260 NM ESE
OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...AND IS MOVING NW AROUND 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM IN THE E AND 240
NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLES OF THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 130W AND 135W...AND ALSO
FROM 07N TO 11N W OF 138W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 8-12 FT
SEAS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 540 NM IN THE N QUADRANT AND 420 NM IN
THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS LOW
HAS A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W N OF 08N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT.
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS
AND IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION BELOW.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N95W TO
05N116W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM N OF A LINE FROM 08N78W TO 05N82W TO 08N86W...AND
FROM 01N TO 08N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 97W AND 101W...AND FROM
03N TO 05N BETWEEN 99W AND 102W.

IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 13N
BETWEEN 106W AND 111W...AND ALSO FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 120W
AND 123W WITH THESE AREAS UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...DISCUSSION...

WEAK 1020 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 28N127W EXTENDS A BROAD
RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 21N...W OF 116W. MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE N OF 21N W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER
MENTIONED ABOVE.

STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL PULSE IN A DIURNAL CYCLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE ENHANCEMENT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS AND WILL
PROPAGATE OFF TO THE W-SW AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE GULF REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS SNEAKING N OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND 125W. THIS SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY PROPAGATE TO THE N-NE THROUGH THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

THE LOCAL PRES GRADIENT NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED
TO TIGHTEN WED NIGHT AND THIS SETUP COMBINED WITH NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A BRIEF SURGE OF FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF LATE WED NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF THU.

$$
LEWITSKY


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 070206
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 PM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON CHAN-HOM STILL MOVING WESTWARD...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 136.8E

ABOUT  585 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  625 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  620 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  810 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WILL BE
NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 136.8 DEGREES EAST.
CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN THAT HEADING FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE UP TO 85 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND UP TO 125
MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

SIMPSON


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 070206
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 PM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON CHAN-HOM STILL MOVING WESTWARD...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 136.8E

ABOUT  585 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  625 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  620 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  810 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WILL BE
NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 136.8 DEGREES EAST.
CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN THAT HEADING FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE UP TO 85 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND UP TO 125
MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

SIMPSON



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 070057
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
1100 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 155.5E

ABOUT  715 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  735 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT  765 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  670 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  725 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  450 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT  460 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS NEAR
LATITUDE 13.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.5 DEGREES EAST. NANGKA
WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH BUT IS EXPECTED TO
TURN TOWARD NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES NANGKA TO THE NORTHERN CNMI ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 100 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 20 MILES FROM THE CENTER...WHILE TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TYPHOON NANGKA
IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM.

$$

SIMPSON



000
AXNT20 KNHC 062359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N54W TO 14N54W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
CENTRAL ATLC MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 22N48W. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A 700 MB 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM TO
THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N67W TO 17N65W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN EASTERLY
700 MB FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGHING BETWEEN
60W-73W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT
THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
10N21W TO 08N34W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 08N34W TO 07N46W TO 07N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 13W-20W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 31W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MAJORITY OF THE GULF BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N87W. WHILE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS NO TRUE DEEP MOISTURE BASIN-WIDE...VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NW TIP OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING
ACROSS MOSTLY INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE
SURFACE...RIDGING HOLDS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
30N89W. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL
AROUND THE RIDGE AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT W OF 80W SHIFTS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY INTO A TROUGH AXIS ALONG 65W OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS ALOFT AND THIS REFLECTS TO THE SURFACE CONDITIONS IN
THAT THE ONLY DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IS NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS S OF 11N. EVEN WITH THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL
WAVE 66W...ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CARIBBEAN AND EASTERN VENEZUELA THIS
EVENING DUE TO MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MARGINAL MID-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. OTHERWISE...THE PRIME IMPACT ACROSS THE BASIN
REMAINS A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES...WITH EVEN NEAR
GALE CONDITIONS OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. THE AREA OF STRONGEST TRADES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BETWEEN 68W-82W THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...A FEW LATE EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING DUE TO EARLIER PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...
HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CONDITIONS ALOFT CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY WITHIN NW FLOW ON
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED TO THE
NORTH OF THE ISLAND NEAR 25N70W. LIFTING DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE ALSO LIKELY ANOTHER FACTOR IN THE
CONVECTION OCCURRING THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
SLOW TO MOVE...IT IS LIKELY A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF TODAY FOR
TUESDAY WITH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 34N75W SW TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 27N81W. AMPLE MID-LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 35N74W TO 31N78W TO 27N80W.
MORE INTENSE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. TO THE SOUTHEAST...A FAIRLY
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N70W THAT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 21N-29N BETWEEN 64W-71W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AND WESTERN
CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N64W. FINALLY...THE EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STATIONARY 1026 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 33N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 062359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N54W TO 14N54W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
CENTRAL ATLC MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 22N48W. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A 700 MB 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM TO
THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N67W TO 17N65W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN EASTERLY
700 MB FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGHING BETWEEN
60W-73W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT
THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
10N21W TO 08N34W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 08N34W TO 07N46W TO 07N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 13W-20W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 31W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MAJORITY OF THE GULF BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N87W. WHILE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS NO TRUE DEEP MOISTURE BASIN-WIDE...VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NW TIP OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING
ACROSS MOSTLY INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE
SURFACE...RIDGING HOLDS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
30N89W. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL
AROUND THE RIDGE AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT W OF 80W SHIFTS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY INTO A TROUGH AXIS ALONG 65W OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS ALOFT AND THIS REFLECTS TO THE SURFACE CONDITIONS IN
THAT THE ONLY DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IS NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS S OF 11N. EVEN WITH THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL
WAVE 66W...ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CARIBBEAN AND EASTERN VENEZUELA THIS
EVENING DUE TO MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MARGINAL MID-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. OTHERWISE...THE PRIME IMPACT ACROSS THE BASIN
REMAINS A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES...WITH EVEN NEAR
GALE CONDITIONS OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. THE AREA OF STRONGEST TRADES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BETWEEN 68W-82W THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...A FEW LATE EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING DUE TO EARLIER PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...
HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CONDITIONS ALOFT CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY WITHIN NW FLOW ON
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED TO THE
NORTH OF THE ISLAND NEAR 25N70W. LIFTING DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE ALSO LIKELY ANOTHER FACTOR IN THE
CONVECTION OCCURRING THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
SLOW TO MOVE...IT IS LIKELY A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF TODAY FOR
TUESDAY WITH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 34N75W SW TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 27N81W. AMPLE MID-LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 35N74W TO 31N78W TO 27N80W.
MORE INTENSE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. TO THE SOUTHEAST...A FAIRLY
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N70W THAT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 21N-29N BETWEEN 64W-71W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AND WESTERN
CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N64W. FINALLY...THE EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STATIONARY 1026 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 33N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
ACPN50 PHFO 062346
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST MON JUL 6 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO HAWAII CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY FORM DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT
15 TO 20 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...70 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
DISORGANIZED AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE DAY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 1000
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

EATON/WROE






000
ACPN50 PHFO 062346
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST MON JUL 6 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO HAWAII CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY FORM DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT
15 TO 20 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...70 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
DISORGANIZED AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE DAY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 1000
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

EATON/WROE





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 062335
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the large area of low
pressure located about 1450 miles east-southeast of the Big Island
of Hawaii are gradually becoming better organized. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a
tropical cyclone will likely form over the next day or two while
the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 062335
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the large area of low
pressure located about 1450 miles east-southeast of the Big Island
of Hawaii are gradually becoming better organized. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a
tropical cyclone will likely form over the next day or two while
the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 062335
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the large area of low
pressure located about 1450 miles east-southeast of the Big Island
of Hawaii are gradually becoming better organized. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a
tropical cyclone will likely form over the next day or two while
the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 062331
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT LUNES 6 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 062331
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT LUNES 6 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART



000
ABNT20 KNHC 062328
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABNT20 KNHC 062328
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
WTPQ83 PGUM 062320
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...INCLUDING AGRIHAN...
PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.1 EAST.

ABOUT  755 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  775 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT  800 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  710 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  765 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  440 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  470 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK

TYPHOON NANGKA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES TYPHOON NANGKA TOWARD AGRIHAN...
PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.
NANGKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEED. NANGKA IS EXPECTED
TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE PREPARED TO SEEK STURDY SHELTER IN CASE A TYPHOON WARNING IS
ISSUED. THE CURRENT TRACK BRINGS DAMAGING WINDS TO THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE
OF NANGKA AND INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL WILL BECOME DANGEROUS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY WITH TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND DAMAGING WINDS
COULD LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FEET ACROSS THE AREA ARE ALREADY HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL
CRAFT. THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND
COULD RANGE FROM AT LEAST 15 FEET TO MORE THAN 20 FEET BY THURSDAY.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED AS TYPHOON NANGKA
APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

SIMPSON


000
WTPQ83 PGUM 062320
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...INCLUDING AGRIHAN...
PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.1 EAST.

ABOUT  755 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  775 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT  800 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  710 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  765 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  440 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  470 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK

TYPHOON NANGKA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES TYPHOON NANGKA TOWARD AGRIHAN...
PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.
NANGKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEED. NANGKA IS EXPECTED
TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE PREPARED TO SEEK STURDY SHELTER IN CASE A TYPHOON WARNING IS
ISSUED. THE CURRENT TRACK BRINGS DAMAGING WINDS TO THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE
OF NANGKA AND INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL WILL BECOME DANGEROUS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY WITH TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND DAMAGING WINDS
COULD LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FEET ACROSS THE AREA ARE ALREADY HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL
CRAFT. THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND
COULD RANGE FROM AT LEAST 15 FEET TO MORE THAN 20 FEET BY THURSDAY.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED AS TYPHOON NANGKA
APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

SIMPSON



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 062137
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
800 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA STILL INTENSIFYING...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 156.1E

ABOUT  440 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  470 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT  710 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  755 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  775 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT  765 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  800 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.1 DEGREES EAST.
NANGKA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH BUT IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES NANGKA TO THE
NORTHERN CNMI THURSDAY EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 100 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE CENTER...WHILE TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TYPHOON NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 062137
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON CHAN-HOM MOVING WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 137.7E

ABOUT  525 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  570 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  570 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  850 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
137.7 DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST AT 13 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN THAT
HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND UP TO 105
MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO RESUME
INTENSIFYING TONIGHT AND CONTINUE STRENGTHENING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 062137
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
800 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA STILL INTENSIFYING...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 156.1E

ABOUT  440 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  470 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT  710 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  755 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  775 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT  765 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  800 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.1 DEGREES EAST.
NANGKA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH BUT IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES NANGKA TO THE
NORTHERN CNMI THURSDAY EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 100 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE CENTER...WHILE TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TYPHOON NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 062137
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON CHAN-HOM MOVING WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 137.7E

ABOUT  525 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  570 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  570 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  850 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
137.7 DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST AT 13 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN THAT
HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND UP TO 105
MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO RESUME
INTENSIFYING TONIGHT AND CONTINUE STRENGTHENING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 062137
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON CHAN-HOM MOVING WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 137.7E

ABOUT  525 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  570 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  570 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  850 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
137.7 DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST AT 13 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN THAT
HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND UP TO 105
MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO RESUME
INTENSIFYING TONIGHT AND CONTINUE STRENGTHENING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062115
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

LOW PRES 1006 MB IS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N132.5W...OR ABOUT 1390 NM
ESE OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...AND IS MOVING NW AROUND 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
300 NM OF THE CENTER...EXCEPT WITHIN 420 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT
OF THE LOW. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS WITHIN 510 NM IN THE N QUADRANT AND WITHIN 420 NM IN THE
SE SEMICIRCLE WHERE SEAS OF 8-10 FT ARE ALSO LIKELY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE AND THIS LOW HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 08N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT.
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS LIMITED WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N82W TO 08N95W TO 05N110W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N
TO 10N E OF 85W...AND ALSO FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 96W AND 104W.

...DISCUSSION...

WEAK 1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 28N130W EXTENDS A BROAD
RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 19N...W OF 115W. A WEAK TROUGH IS
MOVING EASTWARD JUST N OF 30N AND WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY N OF THE
AREA WITH LITTLE IMPACT ACROSS THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS.

THE LOCAL PRES GRADIENT NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WAS JUST
TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SURGE OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE GULF AREA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AHEAD OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. WINDS WILL BE 20 KT OR LESS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL PULSE IN A DIURNAL CYCLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE ENHANCEMENT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS AND WILL
PROPAGATE OFF TO THE W-SW AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE GULF REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL SNEAK N OF THE EQUATOR
BY WED BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TO AROUND 120W THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

$$
LEWITSKY


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062115
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

LOW PRES 1006 MB IS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N132.5W...OR ABOUT 1390 NM
ESE OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...AND IS MOVING NW AROUND 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
300 NM OF THE CENTER...EXCEPT WITHIN 420 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT
OF THE LOW. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS WITHIN 510 NM IN THE N QUADRANT AND WITHIN 420 NM IN THE
SE SEMICIRCLE WHERE SEAS OF 8-10 FT ARE ALSO LIKELY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE AND THIS LOW HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 08N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT.
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS LIMITED WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N82W TO 08N95W TO 05N110W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N
TO 10N E OF 85W...AND ALSO FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 96W AND 104W.

...DISCUSSION...

WEAK 1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 28N130W EXTENDS A BROAD
RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 19N...W OF 115W. A WEAK TROUGH IS
MOVING EASTWARD JUST N OF 30N AND WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY N OF THE
AREA WITH LITTLE IMPACT ACROSS THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS.

THE LOCAL PRES GRADIENT NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WAS JUST
TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SURGE OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE GULF AREA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AHEAD OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. WINDS WILL BE 20 KT OR LESS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL PULSE IN A DIURNAL CYCLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE ENHANCEMENT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS AND WILL
PROPAGATE OFF TO THE W-SW AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE GULF REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL SNEAK N OF THE EQUATOR
BY WED BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TO AROUND 120W THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXNT20 KNHC 061759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
GALE-FORCE WINDS THIS MORNING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HAVE
DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WINDS OF
20 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FROM 10.5N TO 15N W OF 70W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 52W/53W
FROM 6N TO 15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 5N TO 15N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 63W FROM
VENEZUELA TO 17N MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF HIGH MOISTURE
WITH THIS WAVE S OF 14N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
13N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INLAND FROM THE WESTERN ATLC OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. PLEASE SEE THE PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 15N20W TO 9N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 8N40W TO 7N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST
AND 23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN
31W TO 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N87W DOMINATES THE MAJORITY
OF THE GULF WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SE CONUS IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EXTREME NE GULF
WHICH SUPPORTS A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 29N TO THE
FL PANHANDLE BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE
MOISTURE AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN
81W AND 88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N97W TO 19N96W OVER
THE SW GULF. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM N AND WEST
OF THE TROUGH N OF 21N. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS N FL AND
INLAND OF THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST...WITH A HIGH CENTER LOCATED
INLAND ACROSS MS/AL. NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE NE GULF
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MS/AL HIGH. MAINLY SE WINDS OF 5 TO
15 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BROAD RIDGE AXIS. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N W OF
83W. ELSEWHERE...THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN N OF 12N IS
COVERED IN DRY AIR WITH SAHARAN DUST PRESENT. THIS IS INHIBITING
ANY DEEP CONVECTION N OF 12 N ACROSS THE BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS GENERATING CONVECTION OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 78W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NEARBY PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH OVER
PORTIONS OF PANAMA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER COLOMBIA
HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY WHICH HAS RESULTED IN WINDS DECREASING
BELOW GALE-FORCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS REMAIN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO SPREAD W TO 70W S OF 15N OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE ISLAND...ROUNDING THE
BASE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLC IS INTERACTING WITH A
THIN BAND OF MOISTURE SURGE WHICH SUPPORTS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS S OF THE ISLAND ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LIMITED
MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE WILL LIMIT COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR ON TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N79W AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 26N71W AND SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO 30N
BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 21N56W TO 26N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
100NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 28N. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 34N39W DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICAL
NORTHERN ATLC WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THIS FLOW IS SUPPORTING
SAHARAN DUST PLUMES ADVECTING WEST ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. ONE
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 061759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
GALE-FORCE WINDS THIS MORNING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HAVE
DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WINDS OF
20 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FROM 10.5N TO 15N W OF 70W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 52W/53W
FROM 6N TO 15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 5N TO 15N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 63W FROM
VENEZUELA TO 17N MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF HIGH MOISTURE
WITH THIS WAVE S OF 14N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
13N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INLAND FROM THE WESTERN ATLC OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. PLEASE SEE THE PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 15N20W TO 9N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 8N40W TO 7N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST
AND 23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN
31W TO 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N87W DOMINATES THE MAJORITY
OF THE GULF WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SE CONUS IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EXTREME NE GULF
WHICH SUPPORTS A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 29N TO THE
FL PANHANDLE BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE
MOISTURE AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN
81W AND 88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N97W TO 19N96W OVER
THE SW GULF. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM N AND WEST
OF THE TROUGH N OF 21N. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS N FL AND
INLAND OF THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST...WITH A HIGH CENTER LOCATED
INLAND ACROSS MS/AL. NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE NE GULF
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MS/AL HIGH. MAINLY SE WINDS OF 5 TO
15 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BROAD RIDGE AXIS. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N W OF
83W. ELSEWHERE...THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN N OF 12N IS
COVERED IN DRY AIR WITH SAHARAN DUST PRESENT. THIS IS INHIBITING
ANY DEEP CONVECTION N OF 12 N ACROSS THE BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS GENERATING CONVECTION OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 78W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NEARBY PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH OVER
PORTIONS OF PANAMA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER COLOMBIA
HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY WHICH HAS RESULTED IN WINDS DECREASING
BELOW GALE-FORCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS REMAIN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO SPREAD W TO 70W S OF 15N OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE ISLAND...ROUNDING THE
BASE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLC IS INTERACTING WITH A
THIN BAND OF MOISTURE SURGE WHICH SUPPORTS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS S OF THE ISLAND ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LIMITED
MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE WILL LIMIT COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR ON TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N79W AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 26N71W AND SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO 30N
BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 21N56W TO 26N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
100NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 28N. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 34N39W DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICAL
NORTHERN ATLC WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THIS FLOW IS SUPPORTING
SAHARAN DUST PLUMES ADVECTING WEST ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. ONE
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 061759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
GALE-FORCE WINDS THIS MORNING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HAVE
DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WINDS OF
20 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FROM 10.5N TO 15N W OF 70W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 52W/53W
FROM 6N TO 15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 5N TO 15N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 63W FROM
VENEZUELA TO 17N MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF HIGH MOISTURE
WITH THIS WAVE S OF 14N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
13N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INLAND FROM THE WESTERN ATLC OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. PLEASE SEE THE PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 15N20W TO 9N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 8N40W TO 7N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST
AND 23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN
31W TO 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N87W DOMINATES THE MAJORITY
OF THE GULF WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SE CONUS IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EXTREME NE GULF
WHICH SUPPORTS A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 29N TO THE
FL PANHANDLE BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE
MOISTURE AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN
81W AND 88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N97W TO 19N96W OVER
THE SW GULF. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM N AND WEST
OF THE TROUGH N OF 21N. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS N FL AND
INLAND OF THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST...WITH A HIGH CENTER LOCATED
INLAND ACROSS MS/AL. NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE NE GULF
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MS/AL HIGH. MAINLY SE WINDS OF 5 TO
15 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BROAD RIDGE AXIS. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N W OF
83W. ELSEWHERE...THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN N OF 12N IS
COVERED IN DRY AIR WITH SAHARAN DUST PRESENT. THIS IS INHIBITING
ANY DEEP CONVECTION N OF 12 N ACROSS THE BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS GENERATING CONVECTION OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 78W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NEARBY PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH OVER
PORTIONS OF PANAMA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER COLOMBIA
HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY WHICH HAS RESULTED IN WINDS DECREASING
BELOW GALE-FORCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS REMAIN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO SPREAD W TO 70W S OF 15N OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE ISLAND...ROUNDING THE
BASE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLC IS INTERACTING WITH A
THIN BAND OF MOISTURE SURGE WHICH SUPPORTS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS S OF THE ISLAND ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LIMITED
MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE WILL LIMIT COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR ON TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N79W AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 26N71W AND SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO 30N
BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 21N56W TO 26N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
100NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 28N. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 34N39W DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICAL
NORTHERN ATLC WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THIS FLOW IS SUPPORTING
SAHARAN DUST PLUMES ADVECTING WEST ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. ONE
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 061759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
GALE-FORCE WINDS THIS MORNING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HAVE
DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WINDS OF
20 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FROM 10.5N TO 15N W OF 70W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 52W/53W
FROM 6N TO 15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 5N TO 15N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 63W FROM
VENEZUELA TO 17N MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF HIGH MOISTURE
WITH THIS WAVE S OF 14N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
13N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INLAND FROM THE WESTERN ATLC OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. PLEASE SEE THE PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 15N20W TO 9N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 8N40W TO 7N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST
AND 23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN
31W TO 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N87W DOMINATES THE MAJORITY
OF THE GULF WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SE CONUS IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EXTREME NE GULF
WHICH SUPPORTS A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 29N TO THE
FL PANHANDLE BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE
MOISTURE AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN
81W AND 88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N97W TO 19N96W OVER
THE SW GULF. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM N AND WEST
OF THE TROUGH N OF 21N. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS N FL AND
INLAND OF THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST...WITH A HIGH CENTER LOCATED
INLAND ACROSS MS/AL. NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE NE GULF
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MS/AL HIGH. MAINLY SE WINDS OF 5 TO
15 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BROAD RIDGE AXIS. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N W OF
83W. ELSEWHERE...THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN N OF 12N IS
COVERED IN DRY AIR WITH SAHARAN DUST PRESENT. THIS IS INHIBITING
ANY DEEP CONVECTION N OF 12 N ACROSS THE BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS GENERATING CONVECTION OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 78W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NEARBY PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH OVER
PORTIONS OF PANAMA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER COLOMBIA
HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY WHICH HAS RESULTED IN WINDS DECREASING
BELOW GALE-FORCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS REMAIN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO SPREAD W TO 70W S OF 15N OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE ISLAND...ROUNDING THE
BASE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLC IS INTERACTING WITH A
THIN BAND OF MOISTURE SURGE WHICH SUPPORTS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS S OF THE ISLAND ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LIMITED
MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE WILL LIMIT COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR ON TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N79W AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 26N71W AND SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO 30N
BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 21N56W TO 26N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
100NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 28N. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 34N39W DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICAL
NORTHERN ATLC WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THIS FLOW IS SUPPORTING
SAHARAN DUST PLUMES ADVECTING WEST ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. ONE
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 061759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
GALE-FORCE WINDS THIS MORNING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HAVE
DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WINDS OF
20 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FROM 10.5N TO 15N W OF 70W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 52W/53W
FROM 6N TO 15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 5N TO 15N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 63W FROM
VENEZUELA TO 17N MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF HIGH MOISTURE
WITH THIS WAVE S OF 14N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
13N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INLAND FROM THE WESTERN ATLC OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. PLEASE SEE THE PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 15N20W TO 9N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 8N40W TO 7N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST
AND 23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN
31W TO 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N87W DOMINATES THE MAJORITY
OF THE GULF WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SE CONUS IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EXTREME NE GULF
WHICH SUPPORTS A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 29N TO THE
FL PANHANDLE BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE
MOISTURE AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN
81W AND 88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N97W TO 19N96W OVER
THE SW GULF. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM N AND WEST
OF THE TROUGH N OF 21N. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS N FL AND
INLAND OF THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST...WITH A HIGH CENTER LOCATED
INLAND ACROSS MS/AL. NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE NE GULF
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MS/AL HIGH. MAINLY SE WINDS OF 5 TO
15 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BROAD RIDGE AXIS. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N W OF
83W. ELSEWHERE...THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN N OF 12N IS
COVERED IN DRY AIR WITH SAHARAN DUST PRESENT. THIS IS INHIBITING
ANY DEEP CONVECTION N OF 12 N ACROSS THE BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS GENERATING CONVECTION OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 78W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NEARBY PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH OVER
PORTIONS OF PANAMA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER COLOMBIA
HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY WHICH HAS RESULTED IN WINDS DECREASING
BELOW GALE-FORCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS REMAIN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO SPREAD W TO 70W S OF 15N OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE ISLAND...ROUNDING THE
BASE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLC IS INTERACTING WITH A
THIN BAND OF MOISTURE SURGE WHICH SUPPORTS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS S OF THE ISLAND ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LIMITED
MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE WILL LIMIT COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR ON TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N79W AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 26N71W AND SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO 30N
BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 21N56W TO 26N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
100NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 28N. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 34N39W DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICAL
NORTHERN ATLC WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THIS FLOW IS SUPPORTING
SAHARAN DUST PLUMES ADVECTING WEST ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. ONE
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 061759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
GALE-FORCE WINDS THIS MORNING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HAVE
DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WINDS OF
20 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FROM 10.5N TO 15N W OF 70W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 52W/53W
FROM 6N TO 15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 5N TO 15N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 63W FROM
VENEZUELA TO 17N MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF HIGH MOISTURE
WITH THIS WAVE S OF 14N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
13N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INLAND FROM THE WESTERN ATLC OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. PLEASE SEE THE PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 15N20W TO 9N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 8N40W TO 7N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST
AND 23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN
31W TO 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N87W DOMINATES THE MAJORITY
OF THE GULF WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SE CONUS IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EXTREME NE GULF
WHICH SUPPORTS A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 29N TO THE
FL PANHANDLE BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE
MOISTURE AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN
81W AND 88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N97W TO 19N96W OVER
THE SW GULF. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM N AND WEST
OF THE TROUGH N OF 21N. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS N FL AND
INLAND OF THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST...WITH A HIGH CENTER LOCATED
INLAND ACROSS MS/AL. NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE NE GULF
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MS/AL HIGH. MAINLY SE WINDS OF 5 TO
15 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BROAD RIDGE AXIS. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N W OF
83W. ELSEWHERE...THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN N OF 12N IS
COVERED IN DRY AIR WITH SAHARAN DUST PRESENT. THIS IS INHIBITING
ANY DEEP CONVECTION N OF 12 N ACROSS THE BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS GENERATING CONVECTION OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 78W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NEARBY PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH OVER
PORTIONS OF PANAMA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER COLOMBIA
HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY WHICH HAS RESULTED IN WINDS DECREASING
BELOW GALE-FORCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS REMAIN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO SPREAD W TO 70W S OF 15N OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE ISLAND...ROUNDING THE
BASE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLC IS INTERACTING WITH A
THIN BAND OF MOISTURE SURGE WHICH SUPPORTS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS S OF THE ISLAND ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LIMITED
MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE WILL LIMIT COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR ON TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N79W AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 26N71W AND SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO 30N
BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 21N56W TO 26N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
100NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 28N. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 34N39W DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICAL
NORTHERN ATLC WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THIS FLOW IS SUPPORTING
SAHARAN DUST PLUMES ADVECTING WEST ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. ONE
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
ACPN50 PHFO 061752
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST MON JUL 6 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...60 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND ONLY GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY...LOW
PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII
REMAINS MINIMAL. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.


$$

EATON/WROE





000
ACPN50 PHFO 061752
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST MON JUL 6 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...60 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND ONLY GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY...LOW
PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII
REMAINS MINIMAL. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.


$$

EATON/WROE






000
ACPN50 PHFO 061752
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST MON JUL 6 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...60 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND ONLY GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY...LOW
PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII
REMAINS MINIMAL. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.


$$

EATON/WROE






000
ACPN50 PHFO 061752
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST MON JUL 6 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...60 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND ONLY GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY...LOW
PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII
REMAINS MINIMAL. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.


$$

EATON/WROE





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061731
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large low pressure system located about 1600 miles east-southeast
of the Big Island of Hawaii continues to produce a large area of
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two
while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061731
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large low pressure system located about 1600 miles east-southeast
of the Big Island of Hawaii continues to produce a large area of
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two
while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061731
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large low pressure system located about 1600 miles east-southeast
of the Big Island of Hawaii continues to produce a large area of
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two
while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061731
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large low pressure system located about 1600 miles east-southeast
of the Big Island of Hawaii continues to produce a large area of
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two
while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 061707
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT LUNES 6 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 061707
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT LUNES 6 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 061707
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT LUNES 6 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 061707
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT LUNES 6 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN



000
ABNT20 KNHC 061706
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABNT20 KNHC 061706
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061520
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUL 6 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 11N131W IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS POOR...BUT IS IMPROVING AS IT MOVES INTO A FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS
IT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 2-
5 DAYS AS IT MOVES NW TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MAY FORM BY TUE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 127W IS MERGING INTO THE LARGER
SCALE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR 11N131W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W N OF 10N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS
OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87W-92W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07N81W TO 09N87W TO 07N92W
TO 06N1109W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N109W TO 07N119W TO 10N122W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 08N E OF
87W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM
N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 87W AND 92W.

...DISCUSSION...

ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 13N104W...WHICH IS ENHANCING A LINE OF
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13.5N102W TO
12N106W TO 09N107W. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO EVIDENT MOVING W
ALONG 115W-116W S OF 15N.

WEAK 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 28N128W EXTENDS A BROAD
RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS N OF 21N...W OF 115W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH THE DEVELOPING LOW NEAR 11N131W IS
PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN 120 NM N AND
SE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. EXPECT WINDS
TO CONSOLIDATE AND WRAP AROUND THE NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW AS
IT MOVES NW THROUGH WED...PRODUCING 20-30 KT WINDS WITHIN 360 NM
OF THE CENTER EXCEPT IN THE SW QUADRANT WHERE WINDS WILL BE 15-
20 KT...AND MAX SEAS BUILDING TO 12-14 FT.

STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PULSE
IN A DIURNAL CYCLE THE NEXT 2 DAYS WITH HIGHEST WINDS OVER 25 KT
EXPECTED DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEAS WILL BE
GENERALLY 8 FT OR LESS BETWEEN 88W-92W DOWNSTREAM FROM THE AREA
OF MAX WINDS THROUGH WED.

A LARGE AREA OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL SWEEP NORTHWARD FROM
THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TO AROUND
120W THROUGH WED. SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE THU AND FRI.

$$
MUNDELL


000
WTPQ33 PGUM 061452
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
200 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...NANGKA HEADING WEST-NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFYING...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 157.1E

ABOUT  385 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  490 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT  785 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  830 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  835 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.1 DEGREES EAST.
NANGKA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH BUT IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES NANGKA TO THE
NORTHERN CNMI AROUND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 90 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE CENTER...WHILE TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TYPHOON NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 061452
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...CHAN-HOM NOW A TYPHOON...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 138.9E

ABOUT  450 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  495 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  505 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  910 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
138.9 DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND
UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 061452
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...CHAN-HOM NOW A TYPHOON...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 138.9E

ABOUT  450 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  495 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  505 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  910 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
138.9 DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND
UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 061452
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...CHAN-HOM NOW A TYPHOON...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 138.9E

ABOUT  450 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  495 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  505 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  910 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
138.9 DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND
UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 061452
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...CHAN-HOM NOW A TYPHOON...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 138.9E

ABOUT  450 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  495 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  505 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  910 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
138.9 DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND
UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 061452
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
200 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...NANGKA HEADING WEST-NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFYING...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 157.1E

ABOUT  385 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  490 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT  785 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  830 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT  835 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.1 DEGREES EAST.
NANGKA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH BUT IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES NANGKA TO THE
NORTHERN CNMI AROUND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 90 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE CENTER...WHILE TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TYPHOON NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 061452
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...CHAN-HOM NOW A TYPHOON...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 138.9E

ABOUT  450 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  495 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  505 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  910 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
138.9 DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND
UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 061452
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...CHAN-HOM NOW A TYPHOON...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 138.9E

ABOUT  450 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  495 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  505 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  910 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
138.9 DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND
UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 061452
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...CHAN-HOM NOW A TYPHOON...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 138.9E

ABOUT  450 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  495 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  505 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  910 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
138.9 DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND
UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 061452
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...CHAN-HOM NOW A TYPHOON...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 138.9E

ABOUT  450 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  495 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  505 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  910 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
138.9 DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND
UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
ACPN50 PHFO 061155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON JUL 6 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE STEADILY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...60 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
CENTERED ABOUT 680 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY...LOW
PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII
REMAINS MINIMAL. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.


$$

REYNES






000
ACPN50 PHFO 061155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON JUL 6 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE STEADILY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...60 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
CENTERED ABOUT 680 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY...LOW
PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII
REMAINS MINIMAL. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.


$$

REYNES





000
ACPN50 PHFO 061155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON JUL 6 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE STEADILY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...60 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
CENTERED ABOUT 680 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY...LOW
PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII
REMAINS MINIMAL. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.


$$

REYNES





000
ACPN50 PHFO 061155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON JUL 6 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE STEADILY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...60 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
CENTERED ABOUT 680 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY...LOW
PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII
REMAINS MINIMAL. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.


$$

REYNES





000
ACPN50 PHFO 061155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON JUL 6 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE STEADILY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...60 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
CENTERED ABOUT 680 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY...LOW
PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII
REMAINS MINIMAL. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.


$$

REYNES





000
ACPN50 PHFO 061155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON JUL 6 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE STEADILY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...60 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
CENTERED ABOUT 680 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY...LOW
PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII
REMAINS MINIMAL. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.


$$

REYNES





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061145
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large low pressure system centered about 1700 miles east-
southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii has changed little in
organization during the past few hours.  However, environmental
conditions are expected to be become more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two
while the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061145
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large low pressure system centered about 1700 miles east-
southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii has changed little in
organization during the past few hours.  However, environmental
conditions are expected to be become more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two
while the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061145
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large low pressure system centered about 1700 miles east-
southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii has changed little in
organization during the past few hours.  However, environmental
conditions are expected to be become more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two
while the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061145
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large low pressure system centered about 1700 miles east-
southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii has changed little in
organization during the past few hours.  However, environmental
conditions are expected to be become more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two
while the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 061128
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT LUNES 6 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 061128
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT LUNES 6 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 061128
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT LUNES 6 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 061128
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT LUNES 6 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 061128
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT LUNES 6 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 061128
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT LUNES 6 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS



000
ABNT20 KNHC 061124
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



000
ABNT20 KNHC 061124
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



000
ABNT20 KNHC 061124
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


000
ABNT20 KNHC 061124
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


000
AXNT20 KNHC 061041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 74W-77W UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED
BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 51W/52W FROM
6N-14N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 50W-53W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC APPROACHING THE LESSER
ANTILLES EXTENDS ALONG 61W S OF 16N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA
MOVING W 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 88W S OF 19N TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 12N21W TO 9N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 7N39W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
OF LINE FROM 7N17W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR THE SIERRA LEONE
AND GUINEA BORDER AND WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 30W-50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N
BETWEEN 54W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AGAIN THIS MORNING
EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST THROUGH AN UPPER LOW
NEAR 24N87W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INCLUDING THE NW CARIBBEAN.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N E OF 90W. THE DIURNAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 93W FROM 21N TO INLAND OVER MEXICO
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 21N W OF 95W.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
REMAINS OVER THE W GULF LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA
TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N84W TO TEXAS. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N W OF 84W TO
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE W ATLC DIPS S
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-18N BETWEEN 69W-72W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL
PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
LIMITING MOST SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO ALLOW ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS TO FORM
OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 66W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. A PERSISTENT
STRONG ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NW
COAST OF COLOMBIA THAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THIS
AFTERNOON. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
BASIN TODAY. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN
EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXIT THE CARIBBEAN BY WED NIGHT. A THIRD
TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT/EARLY TUE AND
OUT OF THE W CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE S COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
THAT HAS PLAGUED THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE PAST SEVERALS DAYS IS
KEEPING ANY LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM FURTHER DEVELOPING.
A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE S COAST OF THE ISLAND THIS
EVENING INCREASING THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TUE EVENING WILL
BRING A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE S COAST OF THE ISLAND
FURTHER INCREASING THE MOISTURE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES
OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE AND WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N78W AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N W OF 75W. LARGE UPPER
LOW IS TO THE E CENTERED NEAR 26N70W AND DIPS S OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 64W-72W. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS TO THE NE OF
THE FIRST AND IS CENTERED NEAR 32N49W SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N56W TO 26N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH N OF 28N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY
AN E/W SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA
NEAR 33N40W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH A 1023 MB HIGH
NEAR 32N62W THEN ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND THE FIRST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE NEXT PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR
SAHARAN DUST REMAINS COVERS THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ TO 24N/25N
TO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 061041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 74W-77W UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED
BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 51W/52W FROM
6N-14N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 50W-53W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC APPROACHING THE LESSER
ANTILLES EXTENDS ALONG 61W S OF 16N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA
MOVING W 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 88W S OF 19N TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 12N21W TO 9N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 7N39W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
OF LINE FROM 7N17W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR THE SIERRA LEONE
AND GUINEA BORDER AND WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 30W-50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N
BETWEEN 54W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AGAIN THIS MORNING
EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST THROUGH AN UPPER LOW
NEAR 24N87W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INCLUDING THE NW CARIBBEAN.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N E OF 90W. THE DIURNAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 93W FROM 21N TO INLAND OVER MEXICO
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 21N W OF 95W.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
REMAINS OVER THE W GULF LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA
TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N84W TO TEXAS. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N W OF 84W TO
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE W ATLC DIPS S
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-18N BETWEEN 69W-72W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL
PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
LIMITING MOST SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO ALLOW ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS TO FORM
OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 66W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. A PERSISTENT
STRONG ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NW
COAST OF COLOMBIA THAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THIS
AFTERNOON. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
BASIN TODAY. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN
EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXIT THE CARIBBEAN BY WED NIGHT. A THIRD
TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT/EARLY TUE AND
OUT OF THE W CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE S COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
THAT HAS PLAGUED THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE PAST SEVERALS DAYS IS
KEEPING ANY LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM FURTHER DEVELOPING.
A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE S COAST OF THE ISLAND THIS
EVENING INCREASING THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TUE EVENING WILL
BRING A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE S COAST OF THE ISLAND
FURTHER INCREASING THE MOISTURE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES
OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE AND WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N78W AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N W OF 75W. LARGE UPPER
LOW IS TO THE E CENTERED NEAR 26N70W AND DIPS S OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 64W-72W. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS TO THE NE OF
THE FIRST AND IS CENTERED NEAR 32N49W SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N56W TO 26N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH N OF 28N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY
AN E/W SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA
NEAR 33N40W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH A 1023 MB HIGH
NEAR 32N62W THEN ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND THE FIRST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE NEXT PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR
SAHARAN DUST REMAINS COVERS THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ TO 24N/25N
TO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 061041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 74W-77W UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED
BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 51W/52W FROM
6N-14N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 50W-53W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC APPROACHING THE LESSER
ANTILLES EXTENDS ALONG 61W S OF 16N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA
MOVING W 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 88W S OF 19N TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 12N21W TO 9N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 7N39W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
OF LINE FROM 7N17W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR THE SIERRA LEONE
AND GUINEA BORDER AND WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 30W-50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N
BETWEEN 54W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AGAIN THIS MORNING
EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST THROUGH AN UPPER LOW
NEAR 24N87W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INCLUDING THE NW CARIBBEAN.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N E OF 90W. THE DIURNAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 93W FROM 21N TO INLAND OVER MEXICO
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 21N W OF 95W.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
REMAINS OVER THE W GULF LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA
TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N84W TO TEXAS. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N W OF 84W TO
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE W ATLC DIPS S
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-18N BETWEEN 69W-72W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL
PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
LIMITING MOST SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO ALLOW ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS TO FORM
OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 66W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. A PERSISTENT
STRONG ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NW
COAST OF COLOMBIA THAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THIS
AFTERNOON. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
BASIN TODAY. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN
EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXIT THE CARIBBEAN BY WED NIGHT. A THIRD
TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT/EARLY TUE AND
OUT OF THE W CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE S COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
THAT HAS PLAGUED THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE PAST SEVERALS DAYS IS
KEEPING ANY LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM FURTHER DEVELOPING.
A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE S COAST OF THE ISLAND THIS
EVENING INCREASING THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TUE EVENING WILL
BRING A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE S COAST OF THE ISLAND
FURTHER INCREASING THE MOISTURE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES
OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE AND WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N78W AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N W OF 75W. LARGE UPPER
LOW IS TO THE E CENTERED NEAR 26N70W AND DIPS S OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 64W-72W. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS TO THE NE OF
THE FIRST AND IS CENTERED NEAR 32N49W SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N56W TO 26N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH N OF 28N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY
AN E/W SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA
NEAR 33N40W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH A 1023 MB HIGH
NEAR 32N62W THEN ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND THE FIRST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE NEXT PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR
SAHARAN DUST REMAINS COVERS THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ TO 24N/25N
TO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061003
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10N130W...MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD 10 KNOTS. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...WITH A CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15N129W. THE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS PROVIDING A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 130W AND 134W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 16N BETWEEN 124W AND 137W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STEADILY ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY
FORM BY TUESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 113W/114W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE REMAINS IN PHASE WITH A SMALL
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N113W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 126W/127W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN EVIDENT
CONSISTENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IT
IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF FAIRLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST
SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. IT IS DRIFTING
CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 10N130W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS TROPICAL WAVE MAY LOSE
ITS DISTINCT DEFINITION AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA OF THE 1006
MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N77W TO 07N81W TO 09N86W TO 07N92W
TO 05N110W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 02N
TO 10N E OF 88W...FROM 08N TO 09N BETWEEN 98W AND 99W...AND FROM
09N TO 13N BETWEEN 101W AND 105W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 37N130W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
CENTER COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM
24N140W TO 25N130W BEYOND 29N115W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 150 NM TO
210 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 24N140W 27N130W
BEYOND 32N117W.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 10N115W. A
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 16N111W AND 19N104W
AT THE COAST OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 20N110W...TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N127W...BEYOND 30N140W.

STRONG CARIBBEAN SEA TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO FEED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG
EAST-TO-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PULSING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS WITH A PLUME OF SHORTER
PERIOD SWELL REACHING 8 FEET...AND PROPAGATING AS FAR TO THE
WEST AS 92W DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...PARTICULARLY
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS OF
YESTERDAY...AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THIS MORNING. THIS
TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

THE ITCZ HAS BEEN BROKEN DOWN AS THE 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
BEGINS TO DEVELOP. THE LOW CENTER REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE LOW
WESTWARD TO A WEAK 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
14N140W...AND THEN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA TO A BROAD 1007 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N148W. THE FAIRLY WEAK 1019
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND SURFACE RIDGE ARE MAINTAINING
GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS DEEPER INTO THE TROPICS...EXCEPT
NEAR THE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE. A FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS DUE TO ITS LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 15N129W.

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061003
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10N130W...MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD 10 KNOTS. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...WITH A CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15N129W. THE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS PROVIDING A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 130W AND 134W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 16N BETWEEN 124W AND 137W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STEADILY ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY
FORM BY TUESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 113W/114W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE REMAINS IN PHASE WITH A SMALL
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N113W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 126W/127W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN EVIDENT
CONSISTENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IT
IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF FAIRLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST
SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. IT IS DRIFTING
CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 10N130W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS TROPICAL WAVE MAY LOSE
ITS DISTINCT DEFINITION AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA OF THE 1006
MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N77W TO 07N81W TO 09N86W TO 07N92W
TO 05N110W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 02N
TO 10N E OF 88W...FROM 08N TO 09N BETWEEN 98W AND 99W...AND FROM
09N TO 13N BETWEEN 101W AND 105W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 37N130W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
CENTER COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM
24N140W TO 25N130W BEYOND 29N115W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 150 NM TO
210 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 24N140W 27N130W
BEYOND 32N117W.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 10N115W. A
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 16N111W AND 19N104W
AT THE COAST OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 20N110W...TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N127W...BEYOND 30N140W.

STRONG CARIBBEAN SEA TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO FEED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG
EAST-TO-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PULSING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS WITH A PLUME OF SHORTER
PERIOD SWELL REACHING 8 FEET...AND PROPAGATING AS FAR TO THE
WEST AS 92W DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...PARTICULARLY
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS OF
YESTERDAY...AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THIS MORNING. THIS
TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

THE ITCZ HAS BEEN BROKEN DOWN AS THE 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
BEGINS TO DEVELOP. THE LOW CENTER REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE LOW
WESTWARD TO A WEAK 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
14N140W...AND THEN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA TO A BROAD 1007 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N148W. THE FAIRLY WEAK 1019
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND SURFACE RIDGE ARE MAINTAINING
GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS DEEPER INTO THE TROPICS...EXCEPT
NEAR THE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE. A FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS DUE TO ITS LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 15N129W.

$$
MT


000
WTPQ33 PGUM 060958 CCA
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 12...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
800 PM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

CORRECTED WIND RADII

...NANGKA IS NOW A TYPHOON...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 158.2E

ABOUT  285 MILES WEST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT  345 MILES NORTH OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  525 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT  865 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  910 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  915 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN


MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 158.2 DEGREES EAST.
NANGKA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. NANGKA
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TURNS
NORTHWESTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES NANGKA EAST THE NORTHERN CNMI AROUND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 80 MPH. EXTENDING OUTWARD
FROM THE CENTER...TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE UP TO 15 MILES AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE UP TO 110 MILES. TYPHOON NANGKA IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

CHAN



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 060951
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 PM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...CHAN-HOM CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 140.2E

ABOUT  375 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  400 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  405 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 1005 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 140.2 DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND
UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A
TYPHOON AGAIN TUESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

CHAN



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 060951
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 PM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...CHAN-HOM CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 140.2E

ABOUT  375 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  400 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  405 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 1005 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 140.2 DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND
UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A
TYPHOON AGAIN TUESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

CHAN



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 060951
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 PM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...CHAN-HOM CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 140.2E

ABOUT  375 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  400 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  405 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 1005 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 140.2 DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND
UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A
TYPHOON AGAIN TUESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

CHAN



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 060951
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 PM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...CHAN-HOM CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 140.2E

ABOUT  375 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  400 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  405 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 1005 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 140.2 DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND
UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A
TYPHOON AGAIN TUESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

CHAN



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 060951
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 PM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...CHAN-HOM CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 140.2E

ABOUT  375 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT  400 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  405 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 1005 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 140.2 DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND
UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A
TYPHOON AGAIN TUESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

CHAN


000
WTPQ33 PGUM 060921
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
800 PM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...NANGKA IS NOW A TYPHOON...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 158.2E

ABOUT  285 MILES WEST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT  345 MILES NORTH OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  525 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT  865 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  910 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  915 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN


MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 158.2 DEGREES EAST.
NANGKA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. NANGKA
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TURNS
NORTHWESTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES NANGKA EAST THE NORTHERN CNMI AROUND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 80 MPH. EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTER...TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE 15 MILES AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE 110 MILES. TYPHOON NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

CHAN



000
ACPN50 PHFO 060545
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 1110 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. LITTLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN OBSERVED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS AND THE SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
CENTERED ABOUT 690 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AROUND A
WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY...LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 1000 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.


$$

REYNES





000
ACPN50 PHFO 060545
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 1110 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. LITTLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN OBSERVED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS AND THE SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
CENTERED ABOUT 690 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AROUND A
WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY...LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 1000 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.


$$

REYNES






000
ABPZ20 KNHC 060543
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1050 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers activity.  Development of this disturbance is
not expected since upper-level winds are becoming more unfavorable.
The low is forecast to move slowly westward or over the next several
days and gradually weaken. This disturbance is moving into the
central Pacific Ocean basin, and further information can be found in
Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

A large low pressure system is centered about 1800 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. During the past several
hours, shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become
more concentrated near the center of the low. Environmental
conditions are steadily becoming more conducive for development, and
a tropical depression could form by Tuesday while the system moves
west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

&&
Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center can be found under WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and AWIPS header
HFOTWOCP.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 060543
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1050 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers activity.  Development of this disturbance is
not expected since upper-level winds are becoming more unfavorable.
The low is forecast to move slowly westward or over the next several
days and gradually weaken. This disturbance is moving into the
central Pacific Ocean basin, and further information can be found in
Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

A large low pressure system is centered about 1800 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. During the past several
hours, shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become
more concentrated near the center of the low. Environmental
conditions are steadily becoming more conducive for development, and
a tropical depression could form by Tuesday while the system moves
west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

&&
Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center can be found under WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and AWIPS header
HFOTWOCP.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 060543
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1050 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers activity.  Development of this disturbance is
not expected since upper-level winds are becoming more unfavorable.
The low is forecast to move slowly westward or over the next several
days and gradually weaken. This disturbance is moving into the
central Pacific Ocean basin, and further information can be found in
Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

A large low pressure system is centered about 1800 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. During the past several
hours, shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become
more concentrated near the center of the low. Environmental
conditions are steadily becoming more conducive for development, and
a tropical depression could form by Tuesday while the system moves
west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

&&
Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center can be found under WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and AWIPS header
HFOTWOCP.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 060543
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1050 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers activity.  Development of this disturbance is
not expected since upper-level winds are becoming more unfavorable.
The low is forecast to move slowly westward or over the next several
days and gradually weaken. This disturbance is moving into the
central Pacific Ocean basin, and further information can be found in
Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

A large low pressure system is centered about 1800 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. During the past several
hours, shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become
more concentrated near the center of the low. Environmental
conditions are steadily becoming more conducive for development, and
a tropical depression could form by Tuesday while the system moves
west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

&&
Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center can be found under WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and AWIPS header
HFOTWOCP.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
AXNT20 KNHC 060532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13.5N
BETWEEN 73W-78W THROUGH MON MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED
BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 50W
FROM 6N-15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. SEE ITCZ
BELOW.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 59W S OF 16N
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W-NW NEAR 25 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE
WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP
MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 86W S OF 19N TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 11N21W TO 7N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 6N40W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N48W THEN
RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 7N52W TO E OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 8N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 44W-55W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 32W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AGAIN TONIGHT
EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST THROUGH AN UPPER LOW
NEAR 24N87W OVER THE E YUCATAN PENINSULA/YUCATAN CHANNEL
INCLUDING THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE
FROM 27N88W TO THE MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA BORDER. A SEA BREEZE
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-29N
E OF 85W TO OVER FLORIDA WHERE THE SHOWERS BECOME NUMEROUS.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
REMAINS OVER THE W GULF LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA
TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO NE TEXAS. THIS
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 19N W OF 84W TO
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL
PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ARE ALLOWING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE
FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W
CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE BASIN MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE
WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT AND EXIT THE CARIBBEAN BY
WED NIGHT. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN MON
NIGHT/EARLY TUE AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. THE PLUMB
OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST THAT HAS PLAGUED THE CARIBBEAN FOR
THE PAST SEVERALS DAYS IS KEEPING ANY LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS
FROM FURTHER DEVELOPING. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE S
COAST OF THE ISLAND MON EVENING INCREASING THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. TUE EVENING WILL BRING A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
THE S COAST OF THE ISLAND FURTHER INCREASING THE MOISTURE. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUE AND WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N78W AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO
GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND OVER FLORIDA WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N W OF 76W. LARGE THE UPPER LOW IS TO THE E
CENTERED NEAR 26N69W. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS TO THE NE OF THE
FIRST AND IS CENTERED NEAR 31N51W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N57W TO 26N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF
28N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY AN E/W
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR
33N41W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR
32N59W THEN ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE NEXT PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN
DUST REMAINS OVER THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ TO 25N/26N TO THE
CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 060532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13.5N
BETWEEN 73W-78W THROUGH MON MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED
BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 50W
FROM 6N-15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. SEE ITCZ
BELOW.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 59W S OF 16N
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W-NW NEAR 25 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE
WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP
MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 86W S OF 19N TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 11N21W TO 7N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 6N40W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N48W THEN
RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 7N52W TO E OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 8N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 44W-55W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 32W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AGAIN TONIGHT
EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST THROUGH AN UPPER LOW
NEAR 24N87W OVER THE E YUCATAN PENINSULA/YUCATAN CHANNEL
INCLUDING THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE
FROM 27N88W TO THE MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA BORDER. A SEA BREEZE
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-29N
E OF 85W TO OVER FLORIDA WHERE THE SHOWERS BECOME NUMEROUS.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
REMAINS OVER THE W GULF LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA
TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO NE TEXAS. THIS
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 19N W OF 84W TO
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL
PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ARE ALLOWING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE
FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W
CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE BASIN MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE
WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT AND EXIT THE CARIBBEAN BY
WED NIGHT. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN MON
NIGHT/EARLY TUE AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. THE PLUMB
OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST THAT HAS PLAGUED THE CARIBBEAN FOR
THE PAST SEVERALS DAYS IS KEEPING ANY LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS
FROM FURTHER DEVELOPING. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE S
COAST OF THE ISLAND MON EVENING INCREASING THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. TUE EVENING WILL BRING A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
THE S COAST OF THE ISLAND FURTHER INCREASING THE MOISTURE. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUE AND WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N78W AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO
GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND OVER FLORIDA WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N W OF 76W. LARGE THE UPPER LOW IS TO THE E
CENTERED NEAR 26N69W. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS TO THE NE OF THE
FIRST AND IS CENTERED NEAR 31N51W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N57W TO 26N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF
28N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY AN E/W
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR
33N41W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR
32N59W THEN ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE NEXT PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN
DUST REMAINS OVER THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ TO 25N/26N TO THE
CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 060532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13.5N
BETWEEN 73W-78W THROUGH MON MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED
BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 50W
FROM 6N-15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. SEE ITCZ
BELOW.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 59W S OF 16N
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W-NW NEAR 25 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE
WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP
MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 86W S OF 19N TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 11N21W TO 7N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 6N40W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N48W THEN
RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 7N52W TO E OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 8N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 44W-55W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 32W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AGAIN TONIGHT
EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST THROUGH AN UPPER LOW
NEAR 24N87W OVER THE E YUCATAN PENINSULA/YUCATAN CHANNEL
INCLUDING THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE
FROM 27N88W TO THE MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA BORDER. A SEA BREEZE
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-29N
E OF 85W TO OVER FLORIDA WHERE THE SHOWERS BECOME NUMEROUS.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
REMAINS OVER THE W GULF LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA
TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO NE TEXAS. THIS
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 19N W OF 84W TO
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL
PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ARE ALLOWING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE
FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W
CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE BASIN MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE
WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT AND EXIT THE CARIBBEAN BY
WED NIGHT. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN MON
NIGHT/EARLY TUE AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. THE PLUMB
OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST THAT HAS PLAGUED THE CARIBBEAN FOR
THE PAST SEVERALS DAYS IS KEEPING ANY LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS
FROM FURTHER DEVELOPING. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE S
COAST OF THE ISLAND MON EVENING INCREASING THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. TUE EVENING WILL BRING A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
THE S COAST OF THE ISLAND FURTHER INCREASING THE MOISTURE. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUE AND WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N78W AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO
GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND OVER FLORIDA WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N W OF 76W. LARGE THE UPPER LOW IS TO THE E
CENTERED NEAR 26N69W. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS TO THE NE OF THE
FIRST AND IS CENTERED NEAR 31N51W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N57W TO 26N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF
28N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY AN E/W
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR
33N41W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR
32N59W THEN ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE NEXT PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN
DUST REMAINS OVER THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ TO 25N/26N TO THE
CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 060532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13.5N
BETWEEN 73W-78W THROUGH MON MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED
BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 50W
FROM 6N-15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. SEE ITCZ
BELOW.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 59W S OF 16N
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W-NW NEAR 25 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE
WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP
MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 86W S OF 19N TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 11N21W TO 7N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 6N40W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N48W THEN
RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 7N52W TO E OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 8N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 44W-55W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 32W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AGAIN TONIGHT
EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST THROUGH AN UPPER LOW
NEAR 24N87W OVER THE E YUCATAN PENINSULA/YUCATAN CHANNEL
INCLUDING THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE
FROM 27N88W TO THE MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA BORDER. A SEA BREEZE
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-29N
E OF 85W TO OVER FLORIDA WHERE THE SHOWERS BECOME NUMEROUS.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
REMAINS OVER THE W GULF LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA
TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO NE TEXAS. THIS
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 19N W OF 84W TO
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL
PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ARE ALLOWING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE
FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W
CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE BASIN MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE
WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT AND EXIT THE CARIBBEAN BY
WED NIGHT. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN MON
NIGHT/EARLY TUE AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. THE PLUMB
OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST THAT HAS PLAGUED THE CARIBBEAN FOR
THE PAST SEVERALS DAYS IS KEEPING ANY LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS
FROM FURTHER DEVELOPING. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE S
COAST OF THE ISLAND MON EVENING INCREASING THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. TUE EVENING WILL BRING A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
THE S COAST OF THE ISLAND FURTHER INCREASING THE MOISTURE. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUE AND WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N78W AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO
GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND OVER FLORIDA WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N W OF 76W. LARGE THE UPPER LOW IS TO THE E
CENTERED NEAR 26N69W. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS TO THE NE OF THE
FIRST AND IS CENTERED NEAR 31N51W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N57W TO 26N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF
28N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY AN E/W
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR
33N41W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR
32N59W THEN ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE NEXT PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN
DUST REMAINS OVER THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ TO 25N/26N TO THE
CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
ABNT20 KNHC 060516
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 060516
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 060516
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 060516
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 060319
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 PM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST OF GUAM...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 142.0E

ABOUT  265 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
ABOUT  275 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT  285 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 1135 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST...340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 142.0 DEGREES EAST. TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS HEADING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-
HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 060319
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 PM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST OF GUAM...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 142.0E

ABOUT  265 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
ABOUT  275 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT  285 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 1135 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST...340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 142.0 DEGREES EAST. TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS HEADING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-
HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 060319
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 PM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST OF GUAM...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 142.0E

ABOUT  265 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
ABOUT  275 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT  285 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 1135 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST...340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 142.0 DEGREES EAST. TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS HEADING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-
HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 060319
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 PM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST OF GUAM...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 142.0E

ABOUT  265 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
ABOUT  275 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT  285 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 1135 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST...340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 142.0 DEGREES EAST. TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS HEADING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-
HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 060319
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
200 PM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA PASSING WELL NORTH OF POHNPEI...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 159.1E

ABOUT  225 MILES WEST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT  335 MILES NORTH OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  885 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT  975 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 159.1 DEGREES
EAST. NANGKA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH.
NANGKA IS EXPECTED CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING TODAY...POSSIBLY
BECOMING A TYPHOON BY TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060238
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 09N130W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT
10 KT. THE LOW LIES WITHIN THE SW PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 14N129W THAT IS
PROVIDING A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT.
CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM
05N TO 10N BETWEEN 125W AND 128W. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 111W/112W MOVING W
AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS IN PHASE WITH A SMALL UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 10N113W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 123W/124W MOVING W
AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY EVIDENT IN THE
LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IT IS CURRENTLY IN AN
AREA OF FAIRLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A BROAD
UPPER ANTICYCLONE...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. IT
IS DRIFTING CLOSER TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRES AREA NEAR 08.5N125W
AND MAY START TO LOSE DISTINCT DEFINITION AS A RESULT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N80W TO 06N95W TO 06N100W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN
240 NM S OF AXIS E OF 85W AND WITHIN 270 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN
85W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED AGAIN THIS
MORNING IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR THE GERMAN
RESEARCH VESSEL SONNE. THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH
A LARGE DEFORMATION AREA IN PLACE BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. WEAK RIDGING W OF
THE AREA IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SEAS STILL 4 TO 6 FT AS NOTED IN A PAIR OF RECENT
ALTIMETER PASSES. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG CARIBBEAN SEA TRADES CONTINUE TO
FEED ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS. THE FRESH TO
OCCASIONAL STRONG E-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PULSING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS WITH A PLUME OF
SHORTER PERIOD SWELL REACHING 8 FT AND PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST
AS 92W DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACTIVE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...PARTICULARLY OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TREND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

ELSEWHERE...WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...THE MAIN FOCUS IS
ON THE LOW PRES DESCRIBED ABOVE IN SPECIAL FEATURES. THE LOW
REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WESTWARD TO A WEAK 1008 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 14N140W THEN WEST OF THE AREA TO A BROAD 1007 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 10N148W. FAIRLY WEAK 1018 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N
OF 20N IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY MODERATE TRADES DEEPER INTO THE
TROPICS...EXCEPT NEAR THE AREAS OF LOW PRES. FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE ITS LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 13N130W.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060238
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 09N130W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT
10 KT. THE LOW LIES WITHIN THE SW PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 14N129W THAT IS
PROVIDING A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT.
CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM
05N TO 10N BETWEEN 125W AND 128W. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 111W/112W MOVING W
AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS IN PHASE WITH A SMALL UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 10N113W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 123W/124W MOVING W
AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY EVIDENT IN THE
LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IT IS CURRENTLY IN AN
AREA OF FAIRLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A BROAD
UPPER ANTICYCLONE...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. IT
IS DRIFTING CLOSER TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRES AREA NEAR 08.5N125W
AND MAY START TO LOSE DISTINCT DEFINITION AS A RESULT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N80W TO 06N95W TO 06N100W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN
240 NM S OF AXIS E OF 85W AND WITHIN 270 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN
85W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED AGAIN THIS
MORNING IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR THE GERMAN
RESEARCH VESSEL SONNE. THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH
A LARGE DEFORMATION AREA IN PLACE BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. WEAK RIDGING W OF
THE AREA IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SEAS STILL 4 TO 6 FT AS NOTED IN A PAIR OF RECENT
ALTIMETER PASSES. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG CARIBBEAN SEA TRADES CONTINUE TO
FEED ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS. THE FRESH TO
OCCASIONAL STRONG E-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PULSING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS WITH A PLUME OF
SHORTER PERIOD SWELL REACHING 8 FT AND PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST
AS 92W DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACTIVE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...PARTICULARLY OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TREND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

ELSEWHERE...WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...THE MAIN FOCUS IS
ON THE LOW PRES DESCRIBED ABOVE IN SPECIAL FEATURES. THE LOW
REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WESTWARD TO A WEAK 1008 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 14N140W THEN WEST OF THE AREA TO A BROAD 1007 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 10N148W. FAIRLY WEAK 1018 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N
OF 20N IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY MODERATE TRADES DEEPER INTO THE
TROPICS...EXCEPT NEAR THE AREAS OF LOW PRES. FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE ITS LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 13N130W.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060238
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 09N130W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT
10 KT. THE LOW LIES WITHIN THE SW PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 14N129W THAT IS
PROVIDING A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT.
CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM
05N TO 10N BETWEEN 125W AND 128W. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 111W/112W MOVING W
AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS IN PHASE WITH A SMALL UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 10N113W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 123W/124W MOVING W
AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY EVIDENT IN THE
LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IT IS CURRENTLY IN AN
AREA OF FAIRLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A BROAD
UPPER ANTICYCLONE...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. IT
IS DRIFTING CLOSER TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRES AREA NEAR 08.5N125W
AND MAY START TO LOSE DISTINCT DEFINITION AS A RESULT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N80W TO 06N95W TO 06N100W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN
240 NM S OF AXIS E OF 85W AND WITHIN 270 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN
85W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED AGAIN THIS
MORNING IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR THE GERMAN
RESEARCH VESSEL SONNE. THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH
A LARGE DEFORMATION AREA IN PLACE BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. WEAK RIDGING W OF
THE AREA IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SEAS STILL 4 TO 6 FT AS NOTED IN A PAIR OF RECENT
ALTIMETER PASSES. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG CARIBBEAN SEA TRADES CONTINUE TO
FEED ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS. THE FRESH TO
OCCASIONAL STRONG E-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PULSING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS WITH A PLUME OF
SHORTER PERIOD SWELL REACHING 8 FT AND PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST
AS 92W DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACTIVE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...PARTICULARLY OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TREND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

ELSEWHERE...WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...THE MAIN FOCUS IS
ON THE LOW PRES DESCRIBED ABOVE IN SPECIAL FEATURES. THE LOW
REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WESTWARD TO A WEAK 1008 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 14N140W THEN WEST OF THE AREA TO A BROAD 1007 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 10N148W. FAIRLY WEAK 1018 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N
OF 20N IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY MODERATE TRADES DEEPER INTO THE
TROPICS...EXCEPT NEAR THE AREAS OF LOW PRES. FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE ITS LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 13N130W.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060238
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 09N130W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT
10 KT. THE LOW LIES WITHIN THE SW PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 14N129W THAT IS
PROVIDING A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT.
CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM
05N TO 10N BETWEEN 125W AND 128W. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 111W/112W MOVING W
AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS IN PHASE WITH A SMALL UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 10N113W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 123W/124W MOVING W
AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY EVIDENT IN THE
LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IT IS CURRENTLY IN AN
AREA OF FAIRLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A BROAD
UPPER ANTICYCLONE...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. IT
IS DRIFTING CLOSER TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRES AREA NEAR 08.5N125W
AND MAY START TO LOSE DISTINCT DEFINITION AS A RESULT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N80W TO 06N95W TO 06N100W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN
240 NM S OF AXIS E OF 85W AND WITHIN 270 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN
85W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED AGAIN THIS
MORNING IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR THE GERMAN
RESEARCH VESSEL SONNE. THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH
A LARGE DEFORMATION AREA IN PLACE BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. WEAK RIDGING W OF
THE AREA IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SEAS STILL 4 TO 6 FT AS NOTED IN A PAIR OF RECENT
ALTIMETER PASSES. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG CARIBBEAN SEA TRADES CONTINUE TO
FEED ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS. THE FRESH TO
OCCASIONAL STRONG E-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PULSING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS WITH A PLUME OF
SHORTER PERIOD SWELL REACHING 8 FT AND PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST
AS 92W DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACTIVE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...PARTICULARLY OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TREND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

ELSEWHERE...WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...THE MAIN FOCUS IS
ON THE LOW PRES DESCRIBED ABOVE IN SPECIAL FEATURES. THE LOW
REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WESTWARD TO A WEAK 1008 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 14N140W THEN WEST OF THE AREA TO A BROAD 1007 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 10N148W. FAIRLY WEAK 1018 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N
OF 20N IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY MODERATE TRADES DEEPER INTO THE
TROPICS...EXCEPT NEAR THE AREAS OF LOW PRES. FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE ITS LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 13N130W.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 052349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO
13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 14N47W TO 06N48W. THIS WAVE HAS MOVED W AT AROUND
25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE
MOISTURE S OF 10N. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN DUST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE MAINLY N OF 10N WHICH IS
INHIBITING CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS S
OF 10N BETWEEN 46W-52W. THIS CONVECTION IS PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED
ALSO WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS AT ABOUT 200 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N56W TO 08N58W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR
20 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP HIGH MOISTURE MAINLY S OF 11N. A DRY
SAHARAN AIRMASS PREVAILS N OF 12N INHIBITING CONVECTION.
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 10N BETWEEN 54W-
62W. LIKE THE PREVIOUS WAVE DISCUSSED...THIS CONVECTION IS
PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N84W TO 11N84W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT AROUND
20 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS ALONG 15N BETWEEN 82W-86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 18N16W TO 10N23W TO 08N26W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES TO 07N46W...THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
07N49W TO 07N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM
N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 42W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF NEAR
23N88W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE BASIN. WITH THIS...UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE E GULF SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY E OF 88W. ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES E OF TEXAS AND THE N GULF WATERS N OF 29N.
AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
EXTENDS W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. AN ANTICYCLONIC LIGHT
TO GENTLE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DECREASE OVER THE NE GULF TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE
EASTERN GULF ON MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE E GULF ALSO
EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN AND W CUBA SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAINLY W OF 80W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN...PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY DEPICTS A SAHARAN AIRMASS
DOMINATING THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER
S AMERICA SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS S OF 18N BETWEEN 70W-
80W WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC ERODES FROM THE W WITH THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
BRING WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST PREVAIL OVER THE ISLAND AND THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. EXPECT THIS CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WINDWARD/LEEWARD ISLANDS MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY
LATE MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N69W. THIS FEATURE...
COMBINED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...IS SUPPORTING A DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THESE CENTERS
WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND W ATLANTIC MAINLY W OF 75W. AT THE SURFACE...A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN
CENTERED NEAR 34N42W. A SAHARAN AIRMASS ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS THE
BASIN INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...WITH HIGHER
CONCENTRATION E OF 50W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL
NORTHERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 052349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO
13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 14N47W TO 06N48W. THIS WAVE HAS MOVED W AT AROUND
25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE
MOISTURE S OF 10N. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN DUST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE MAINLY N OF 10N WHICH IS
INHIBITING CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS S
OF 10N BETWEEN 46W-52W. THIS CONVECTION IS PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED
ALSO WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS AT ABOUT 200 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N56W TO 08N58W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR
20 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP HIGH MOISTURE MAINLY S OF 11N. A DRY
SAHARAN AIRMASS PREVAILS N OF 12N INHIBITING CONVECTION.
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 10N BETWEEN 54W-
62W. LIKE THE PREVIOUS WAVE DISCUSSED...THIS CONVECTION IS
PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N84W TO 11N84W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT AROUND
20 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS ALONG 15N BETWEEN 82W-86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 18N16W TO 10N23W TO 08N26W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES TO 07N46W...THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
07N49W TO 07N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM
N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 42W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF NEAR
23N88W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE BASIN. WITH THIS...UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE E GULF SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY E OF 88W. ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES E OF TEXAS AND THE N GULF WATERS N OF 29N.
AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
EXTENDS W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. AN ANTICYCLONIC LIGHT
TO GENTLE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DECREASE OVER THE NE GULF TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE
EASTERN GULF ON MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE E GULF ALSO
EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN AND W CUBA SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAINLY W OF 80W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN...PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY DEPICTS A SAHARAN AIRMASS
DOMINATING THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER
S AMERICA SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS S OF 18N BETWEEN 70W-
80W WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC ERODES FROM THE W WITH THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
BRING WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST PREVAIL OVER THE ISLAND AND THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. EXPECT THIS CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WINDWARD/LEEWARD ISLANDS MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY
LATE MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N69W. THIS FEATURE...
COMBINED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...IS SUPPORTING A DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THESE CENTERS
WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND W ATLANTIC MAINLY W OF 75W. AT THE SURFACE...A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN
CENTERED NEAR 34N42W. A SAHARAN AIRMASS ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS THE
BASIN INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...WITH HIGHER
CONCENTRATION E OF 50W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL
NORTHERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 052349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO
13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 14N47W TO 06N48W. THIS WAVE HAS MOVED W AT AROUND
25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE
MOISTURE S OF 10N. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN DUST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE MAINLY N OF 10N WHICH IS
INHIBITING CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS S
OF 10N BETWEEN 46W-52W. THIS CONVECTION IS PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED
ALSO WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS AT ABOUT 200 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N56W TO 08N58W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR
20 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP HIGH MOISTURE MAINLY S OF 11N. A DRY
SAHARAN AIRMASS PREVAILS N OF 12N INHIBITING CONVECTION.
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 10N BETWEEN 54W-
62W. LIKE THE PREVIOUS WAVE DISCUSSED...THIS CONVECTION IS
PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N84W TO 11N84W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT AROUND
20 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS ALONG 15N BETWEEN 82W-86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 18N16W TO 10N23W TO 08N26W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES TO 07N46W...THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
07N49W TO 07N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM
N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 42W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF NEAR
23N88W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE BASIN. WITH THIS...UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE E GULF SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY E OF 88W. ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES E OF TEXAS AND THE N GULF WATERS N OF 29N.
AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
EXTENDS W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. AN ANTICYCLONIC LIGHT
TO GENTLE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DECREASE OVER THE NE GULF TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE
EASTERN GULF ON MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE E GULF ALSO
EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN AND W CUBA SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAINLY W OF 80W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN...PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY DEPICTS A SAHARAN AIRMASS
DOMINATING THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER
S AMERICA SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS S OF 18N BETWEEN 70W-
80W WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC ERODES FROM THE W WITH THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
BRING WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST PREVAIL OVER THE ISLAND AND THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. EXPECT THIS CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WINDWARD/LEEWARD ISLANDS MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY
LATE MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N69W. THIS FEATURE...
COMBINED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...IS SUPPORTING A DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THESE CENTERS
WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND W ATLANTIC MAINLY W OF 75W. AT THE SURFACE...A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN
CENTERED NEAR 34N42W. A SAHARAN AIRMASS ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS THE
BASIN INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...WITH HIGHER
CONCENTRATION E OF 50W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL
NORTHERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 052349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO
13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 14N47W TO 06N48W. THIS WAVE HAS MOVED W AT AROUND
25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE
MOISTURE S OF 10N. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN DUST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE MAINLY N OF 10N WHICH IS
INHIBITING CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS S
OF 10N BETWEEN 46W-52W. THIS CONVECTION IS PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED
ALSO WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS AT ABOUT 200 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N56W TO 08N58W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR
20 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP HIGH MOISTURE MAINLY S OF 11N. A DRY
SAHARAN AIRMASS PREVAILS N OF 12N INHIBITING CONVECTION.
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 10N BETWEEN 54W-
62W. LIKE THE PREVIOUS WAVE DISCUSSED...THIS CONVECTION IS
PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N84W TO 11N84W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT AROUND
20 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS ALONG 15N BETWEEN 82W-86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 18N16W TO 10N23W TO 08N26W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES TO 07N46W...THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
07N49W TO 07N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM
N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 42W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF NEAR
23N88W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE BASIN. WITH THIS...UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE E GULF SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY E OF 88W. ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES E OF TEXAS AND THE N GULF WATERS N OF 29N.
AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
EXTENDS W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. AN ANTICYCLONIC LIGHT
TO GENTLE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DECREASE OVER THE NE GULF TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE
EASTERN GULF ON MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE E GULF ALSO
EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN AND W CUBA SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAINLY W OF 80W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN...PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY DEPICTS A SAHARAN AIRMASS
DOMINATING THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER
S AMERICA SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS S OF 18N BETWEEN 70W-
80W WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC ERODES FROM THE W WITH THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
BRING WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST PREVAIL OVER THE ISLAND AND THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. EXPECT THIS CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WINDWARD/LEEWARD ISLANDS MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY
LATE MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N69W. THIS FEATURE...
COMBINED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...IS SUPPORTING A DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THESE CENTERS
WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND W ATLANTIC MAINLY W OF 75W. AT THE SURFACE...A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN
CENTERED NEAR 34N42W. A SAHARAN AIRMASS ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS THE
BASIN INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...WITH HIGHER
CONCENTRATION E OF 50W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL
NORTHERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
ACPN50 PHFO 052343
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1110 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DIMINISHED AND THE SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE
LOW...WAS LOCATED ABOUT 680 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY...LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 1000 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

FUJII





000
ACPN50 PHFO 052343
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1110 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DIMINISHED AND THE SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE
LOW...WAS LOCATED ABOUT 680 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY...LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 1000 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

FUJII






000
ABPZ20 KNHC 052320
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1100 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Development of this
disturbance is not expected since upper-level winds are forecast
to become unfavorable in a day or so. The low is expected to drift
westward or west-northwestward over the next several days, and move
into the central Pacific Ocean basin later tonight or on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

A large low pressure system centered about 1550 miles southwest
of the southern tip of Baja California Sur is producing an
extensive area of cloudiness and showers. Satellite-derived
surface wind data indicate that the low is gradually becoming
better defined, and environmental conditions are forecast to
become more conducive for development over the next several days.
A tropical depression is expected to form by mid-week while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 052320
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1100 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Development of this
disturbance is not expected since upper-level winds are forecast
to become unfavorable in a day or so. The low is expected to drift
westward or west-northwestward over the next several days, and move
into the central Pacific Ocean basin later tonight or on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

A large low pressure system centered about 1550 miles southwest
of the southern tip of Baja California Sur is producing an
extensive area of cloudiness and showers. Satellite-derived
surface wind data indicate that the low is gradually becoming
better defined, and environmental conditions are forecast to
become more conducive for development over the next several days.
A tropical depression is expected to form by mid-week while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 052316
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 052316
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 052316
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 052316
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART



000
ABNT20 KNHC 052304
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 052304
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABNT20 KNHC 052304
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 052304
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
WTPQ83 PGUM 052224
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
830 AM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA MOVING WEST AND AWAY FROM ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN ENEWETAK ATOLL IN THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE TYPHOON WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER OCCURRING.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 160.3 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 140 MILES WEST OF ENEWETAK
        ABOUT 340 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
        ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM ENEWETAK ATOLL.
NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON
LATER TODAY.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS MOVING
FARTHER AWAY FROM ENEWETAK TO THE WEST. DAMAGING WINDS ARE NO LONGER
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER TODAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM
YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FURTHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 11 AND 14 FEET AND DANGEROUS SURF OF 12 TO 15 FEET THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTH
FACING SHORES BEFORE NOON.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THIS WILL BE THE LAST LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN GUAM FOR TROPICAL STORM NANGKA.

$$

WILLIAMS



000
WTPQ83 PGUM 052224
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
830 AM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA MOVING WEST AND AWAY FROM ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN ENEWETAK ATOLL IN THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE TYPHOON WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER OCCURRING.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 160.3 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 140 MILES WEST OF ENEWETAK
        ABOUT 340 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
        ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM ENEWETAK ATOLL.
NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON
LATER TODAY.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS MOVING
FARTHER AWAY FROM ENEWETAK TO THE WEST. DAMAGING WINDS ARE NO LONGER
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER TODAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM
YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FURTHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 11 AND 14 FEET AND DANGEROUS SURF OF 12 TO 15 FEET THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTH
FACING SHORES BEFORE NOON.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THIS WILL BE THE LAST LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN GUAM FOR TROPICAL STORM NANGKA.

$$

WILLIAMS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052159
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 08.5N126W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
AT 10 KT. THE LOW LIES WITHIN THE SW PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 14N129W THAT IS
PROVIDING A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT.
CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM
05N TO 10N BETWEEN 125W AND 128W. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 110W/110W MOVING W
AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS IN PHASE WITH A SMALL UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 11N113W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 122W/123W MOVING W
AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY EVIDENT IN THE
LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IT IS CURRENTLY IN AN
AREA OF FAIRLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A BROAD
UPPER ANTICYCLONE...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. IT IS
DRIFTING CLOSER TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRES AREA NEAR 08.5N125W AND
MAY START TO LOSE DISTINCT DEFINITION AS A RESULT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N85W TO 06N95W TO
06N100W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
240 NM S OF AXIS E OF 85W AND WITHIN 270 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN
95W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...


N OF 15N E OF 120W...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED AGAIN THIS
MORNING IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR THE GERMAN
RESEARCH VESSEL SONNE. THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH
A LARGE DEFORMATION AREA IN PLACE BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. WEAK RIDGING W OF
THE AREA IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SEAS STILL 4 TO 6 FT AS NOTED IN A PAIR OF RECENT
ALTIMETER PASSES. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG CARIBBEAN SEA TRADES CONTINUE TO
FEED ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS. THE FRESH TO
OCCASIONAL STRONG E-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PULSING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS WITH A PLUME OF
SHORTER PERIOD SWELL REACHING 8 FT AND PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST
AS 92W DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACTIVE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...PARTICULARLY OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TREND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

ELSEWHERE...WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...THE MAIN FOCUS IS
ON THE LOW PRES DESCRIBED ABOVE IN SPECIAL FEATURES. THE LOW
REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WESTWARD TO A WEAK 1008 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 14N139W THEN WEST OF THE AREA TO A BROAD 1007 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 10N148W. FAIRLY WEAK 1018 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N
OF 20N IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY MODERATE TRADES DEEPER INTO THE
TROPICS...EXCEPT NEAR THE AREAS OF LOW PRES. FAVORABLE
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE ITS LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED
NEAR 13N128W.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052159
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 08.5N126W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
AT 10 KT. THE LOW LIES WITHIN THE SW PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 14N129W THAT IS
PROVIDING A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT.
CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM
05N TO 10N BETWEEN 125W AND 128W. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 110W/110W MOVING W
AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS IN PHASE WITH A SMALL UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 11N113W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 122W/123W MOVING W
AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY EVIDENT IN THE
LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IT IS CURRENTLY IN AN
AREA OF FAIRLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A BROAD
UPPER ANTICYCLONE...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. IT IS
DRIFTING CLOSER TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRES AREA NEAR 08.5N125W AND
MAY START TO LOSE DISTINCT DEFINITION AS A RESULT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N85W TO 06N95W TO
06N100W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
240 NM S OF AXIS E OF 85W AND WITHIN 270 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN
95W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...


N OF 15N E OF 120W...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED AGAIN THIS
MORNING IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR THE GERMAN
RESEARCH VESSEL SONNE. THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH
A LARGE DEFORMATION AREA IN PLACE BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. WEAK RIDGING W OF
THE AREA IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SEAS STILL 4 TO 6 FT AS NOTED IN A PAIR OF RECENT
ALTIMETER PASSES. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG CARIBBEAN SEA TRADES CONTINUE TO
FEED ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS. THE FRESH TO
OCCASIONAL STRONG E-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PULSING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS WITH A PLUME OF
SHORTER PERIOD SWELL REACHING 8 FT AND PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST
AS 92W DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACTIVE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...PARTICULARLY OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TREND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

ELSEWHERE...WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...THE MAIN FOCUS IS
ON THE LOW PRES DESCRIBED ABOVE IN SPECIAL FEATURES. THE LOW
REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WESTWARD TO A WEAK 1008 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 14N139W THEN WEST OF THE AREA TO A BROAD 1007 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 10N148W. FAIRLY WEAK 1018 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N
OF 20N IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY MODERATE TRADES DEEPER INTO THE
TROPICS...EXCEPT NEAR THE AREAS OF LOW PRES. FAVORABLE
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE ITS LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED
NEAR 13N128W.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
WTPQ33 PGUM 052138 CCA
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
800 AM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

CORRECTED TO CANCEL TYPHOON WARNING

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA MOVING WEST AND AWAY FROM ENEWETAK...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
THE TYPHOON WARNING FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THE TYPHOON WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL.
TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED THERE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 160.3E

ABOUT  140 MILES WEST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT  340 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  800 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 1060 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 160.3 DEGREES
EAST. NANGKA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO WEST AT 13 MPH AND IS EXPECTED
TO TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING TODAY...POSSIBLY
BECOMING A TYPHOON BY TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 052102
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
800 AM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA MOVING WEST AND AWAY FROM ENEWETAK...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 160.3E

ABOUT  140 MILES WEST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT  340 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  800 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 1060 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 160.3 DEGREES
EAST. NANGKA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO WEST AT 13 MPH AND IS EXPECTED
TO TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING TODAY...POSSIBLY
BECOMING A TYPHOON BY TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 200 PM
THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 052046
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 AM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 142.2E

ABOUT  235 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT  240 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT  245 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  245 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 1170 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 AT 18 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 142.2 DEGREES EAST. TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS HEADING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 18 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 052046
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 AM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 142.2E

ABOUT  235 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT  240 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT  245 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  245 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 1170 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 AT 18 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 142.2 DEGREES EAST. TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS HEADING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 18 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 052046
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 AM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 142.2E

ABOUT  235 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT  240 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT  245 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  245 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 1170 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 AT 18 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 142.2 DEGREES EAST. TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS HEADING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 18 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 052046
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 AM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 142.2E

ABOUT  235 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT  240 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT  245 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  245 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 1170 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 AT 18 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 142.2 DEGREES EAST. TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS HEADING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 18 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 051856
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
500 AM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA MOVING WEST AND AWAY FROM ENEWETAK...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 160.8E

ABOUT  110 MILES WEST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT  350 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  765 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 1090 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 160.8 DEGREES
EAST. NANGKA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST AT 14 MPH AND IS EXPECTED
TO TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY
BECOMING A TYPHOON TUESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM
LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 051746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO
13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 45W
FROM 5N TO 15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE S OF 12N. ENHANCED METEOSAT
IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN
43W AND 48W. THIS CONVECTION IS PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURROUNDING ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 54W FROM 6N
TO 15N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
DEEP HIGH MOISTURE S OF 12N. DRY SAHARAN AIR IS NORTH OF 12N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 52W AND
56W. THIS CONVECTION IS PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURROUNDING ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 82W/83W
FROM 10N TO 19N MOVING W AT AROUND 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 19N16W ALONG 14N20W TO 8N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 07N44W...THEN RESUMES W OF THE CENTRAL ATLC
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N47W TO 08N53W...THEN RESUMES AGAIN W OF THE
WESTERN ATLC WAVE NEAR 8N56W TO THE S AMERICA COAST NEAR 09N62W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 28N AND 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 125
NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF NEAR 23N87W WITH
THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TO THE NE GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SUPPORTS
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 28N TO THE N GULF
COAST BETWEEN 84W AND 90W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TO THE TX GULF
COAST. S TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE GULF S OF 27N. S
TO SW WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KT COVER THE GULF N OF 27N...WITH THE
LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE NE GULF AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO DECREASE OVER THE NE GULF TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON
MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N AND W OF 85W OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ENHANCED
METEOSAT IMAGERY INDICATES THE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
IS COVERED IN A SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH DUST. THIS...COMBINED
WITH DRY AIR AND SHEAR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS
PORTION OF THE BASIN. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL NORTHERN ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES
OVER S AMERICA SUPPORTS WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT FROM 10N TO 18N
BETWEEN 63W AND 82W WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE
SW CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS
THE HIGH OVER THE ATLC ERODES FROM THE WEST WITH THE APPROACH OF
AN UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING WINDS BELOW
GALE FORCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON MONDAY.
EXPECT CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST ARE OVER THE ISLAND TODAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE INLAND MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...FAIR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE EAST MAY BRING AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY LATE MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE CAROLINA COASTS. DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS RIDGE SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 27N69W SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 63W AND 69W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N57W TO 25N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W. A 1029 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N41W ANCHORS SURFACE RIDGING THAT COVERS
THE MAJORITY OF THE SUBTROPICAL NORTHERN ATLC. TWO TROPICAL
WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL NORTHERN ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 051746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO
13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 45W
FROM 5N TO 15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE S OF 12N. ENHANCED METEOSAT
IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN
43W AND 48W. THIS CONVECTION IS PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURROUNDING ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 54W FROM 6N
TO 15N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
DEEP HIGH MOISTURE S OF 12N. DRY SAHARAN AIR IS NORTH OF 12N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 52W AND
56W. THIS CONVECTION IS PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURROUNDING ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 82W/83W
FROM 10N TO 19N MOVING W AT AROUND 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 19N16W ALONG 14N20W TO 8N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 07N44W...THEN RESUMES W OF THE CENTRAL ATLC
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N47W TO 08N53W...THEN RESUMES AGAIN W OF THE
WESTERN ATLC WAVE NEAR 8N56W TO THE S AMERICA COAST NEAR 09N62W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 28N AND 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 125
NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF NEAR 23N87W WITH
THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TO THE NE GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SUPPORTS
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 28N TO THE N GULF
COAST BETWEEN 84W AND 90W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TO THE TX GULF
COAST. S TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE GULF S OF 27N. S
TO SW WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KT COVER THE GULF N OF 27N...WITH THE
LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE NE GULF AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO DECREASE OVER THE NE GULF TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON
MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N AND W OF 85W OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ENHANCED
METEOSAT IMAGERY INDICATES THE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
IS COVERED IN A SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH DUST. THIS...COMBINED
WITH DRY AIR AND SHEAR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS
PORTION OF THE BASIN. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL NORTHERN ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES
OVER S AMERICA SUPPORTS WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT FROM 10N TO 18N
BETWEEN 63W AND 82W WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE
SW CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS
THE HIGH OVER THE ATLC ERODES FROM THE WEST WITH THE APPROACH OF
AN UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING WINDS BELOW
GALE FORCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON MONDAY.
EXPECT CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST ARE OVER THE ISLAND TODAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE INLAND MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...FAIR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE EAST MAY BRING AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY LATE MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE CAROLINA COASTS. DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS RIDGE SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 27N69W SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 63W AND 69W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N57W TO 25N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W. A 1029 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N41W ANCHORS SURFACE RIDGING THAT COVERS
THE MAJORITY OF THE SUBTROPICAL NORTHERN ATLC. TWO TROPICAL
WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL NORTHERN ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
ACPN50 PHFO 051735
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1130 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE
LOW...WAS LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 890 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$

BFUJII






000
ACPN50 PHFO 051735
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1130 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE
LOW...WAS LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 890 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$

BFUJII





000
ACPN50 PHFO 051735
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1130 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE
LOW...WAS LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 890 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$

BFUJII





000
ACPN50 PHFO 051735
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1130 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE
LOW...WAS LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 890 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$

BFUJII






000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051733
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system about 1100 miles east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Development of this disturbance is not expected
since upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable in a day
or so. The low is forecast to drift westward or west-northwestward
over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

A large area of showers and thunderstorms centered about 1550 miles
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur is associated
with an elongated area of low pressure.  While the low is not
currently well defined, environmental conditions appear to be
conducive for gradual development.  A tropical depression is
still expected to form by mid-week while the system moves west-
northwestward about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051733
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system about 1100 miles east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Development of this disturbance is not expected
since upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable in a day
or so. The low is forecast to drift westward or west-northwestward
over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

A large area of showers and thunderstorms centered about 1550 miles
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur is associated
with an elongated area of low pressure.  While the low is not
currently well defined, environmental conditions appear to be
conducive for gradual development.  A tropical depression is
still expected to form by mid-week while the system moves west-
northwestward about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051733
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system about 1100 miles east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Development of this disturbance is not expected
since upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable in a day
or so. The low is forecast to drift westward or west-northwestward
over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

A large area of showers and thunderstorms centered about 1550 miles
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur is associated
with an elongated area of low pressure.  While the low is not
currently well defined, environmental conditions appear to be
conducive for gradual development.  A tropical depression is
still expected to form by mid-week while the system moves west-
northwestward about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051733
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system about 1100 miles east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Development of this disturbance is not expected
since upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable in a day
or so. The low is forecast to drift westward or west-northwestward
over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

A large area of showers and thunderstorms centered about 1550 miles
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur is associated
with an elongated area of low pressure.  While the low is not
currently well defined, environmental conditions appear to be
conducive for gradual development.  A tropical depression is
still expected to form by mid-week while the system moves west-
northwestward about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051733
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system about 1100 miles east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Development of this disturbance is not expected
since upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable in a day
or so. The low is forecast to drift westward or west-northwestward
over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

A large area of showers and thunderstorms centered about 1550 miles
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur is associated
with an elongated area of low pressure.  While the low is not
currently well defined, environmental conditions appear to be
conducive for gradual development.  A tropical depression is
still expected to form by mid-week while the system moves west-
northwestward about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051733
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system about 1100 miles east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Development of this disturbance is not expected
since upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable in a day
or so. The low is forecast to drift westward or west-northwestward
over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

A large area of showers and thunderstorms centered about 1550 miles
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur is associated
with an elongated area of low pressure.  While the low is not
currently well defined, environmental conditions appear to be
conducive for gradual development.  A tropical depression is
still expected to form by mid-week while the system moves west-
northwestward about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051725
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051725
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051725
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051725
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051725
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051725
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051725
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051725
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051725
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051725
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN


000
ABNT20 KNHC 051720
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
ABNT20 KNHC 051720
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
ABNT20 KNHC 051720
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
WTPQ83 PGUM 051636
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 AM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA NOW WEST OF ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN ENEWETAK ATOLL IN THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 161.8 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  40 MILES WEST OF ENEWETAK
        ABOUT 705 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE TO THE WEST AND IS
NOW MOVING AWAY FROM ENEWETAK ATOLL. NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING THIS
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON TUESDAY.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL CONTINUE AT ENEWETAK
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF
THE STORM IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE ATOLL. REMAIN IN SHELTER
UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER
TODAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING SOUTH WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
LATER THIS MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 13 AND 18 FEET AND DANGEROUS SURF OF 14 TO 20 FEET THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES THROUGH THIS MORNING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TODAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 900 AM CHST THIS MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ83 PGUM 051636
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 AM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA NOW WEST OF ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN ENEWETAK ATOLL IN THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 161.8 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  40 MILES WEST OF ENEWETAK
        ABOUT 705 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE TO THE WEST AND IS
NOW MOVING AWAY FROM ENEWETAK ATOLL. NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING THIS
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON TUESDAY.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL CONTINUE AT ENEWETAK
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF
THE STORM IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE ATOLL. REMAIN IN SHELTER
UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER
TODAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING SOUTH WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
LATER THIS MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 13 AND 18 FEET AND DANGEROUS SURF OF 14 TO 20 FEET THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES THROUGH THIS MORNING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TODAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 900 AM CHST THIS MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ83 PGUM 051636
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 AM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA NOW WEST OF ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN ENEWETAK ATOLL IN THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 161.8 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  40 MILES WEST OF ENEWETAK
        ABOUT 705 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE TO THE WEST AND IS
NOW MOVING AWAY FROM ENEWETAK ATOLL. NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING THIS
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON TUESDAY.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL CONTINUE AT ENEWETAK
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF
THE STORM IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE ATOLL. REMAIN IN SHELTER
UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER
TODAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING SOUTH WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
LATER THIS MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 13 AND 18 FEET AND DANGEROUS SURF OF 14 TO 20 FEET THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES THROUGH THIS MORNING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TODAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 900 AM CHST THIS MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ83 PGUM 051636
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 AM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA NOW WEST OF ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN ENEWETAK ATOLL IN THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 161.8 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  40 MILES WEST OF ENEWETAK
        ABOUT 705 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE TO THE WEST AND IS
NOW MOVING AWAY FROM ENEWETAK ATOLL. NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING THIS
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON TUESDAY.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL CONTINUE AT ENEWETAK
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF
THE STORM IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE ATOLL. REMAIN IN SHELTER
UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER
TODAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING SOUTH WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
LATER THIS MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 13 AND 18 FEET AND DANGEROUS SURF OF 14 TO 20 FEET THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES THROUGH THIS MORNING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TODAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 900 AM CHST THIS MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051544
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 08N125W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT
10 KT. THE LOW LIES WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 14N129W THAT
IS PROVIDING A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT.
CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM
01N TO 14N BETWEEN 123W AND 137W. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N108W TO 16N108W MOVING W AT 10 TO
15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH WEAK 700 MB TROUGHING AND GLOBAL
MODEL INDICATED 850 MB  VORTICITY IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 13N
BETWEEN 105W AND 111W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N121W TO 16N120W MOVING W AT 10 TO
15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 118W AND
123W AND THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MERGE WITH ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW
CENTERED TO THE SW OF THE WAVE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 06N93W TO 06N104W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 08N E OF
80W...AND FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 82W AND 93W. SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 99W AND 106W.

...DISCUSSION...
WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE SPECIAL
FEATURES LOW DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE LOW REMAINS ON THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE LOW
WESTWARD TO A WEAK 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 14N139W THEN WEST
OF THE AREA TO A BROAD 1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N148W.
OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED THE POSITION OF THE LOW
AT 14N139W...HOWEVER WINDS REMAIN MODERATE TO FRESH WITHIN THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GENERATED
BETWEEN THE LOW AND A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST NEAR 27N130W. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE SPECIAL
FEATURES LOW LIES BENEATH AN OVERALL FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE ITS LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 14N129W.

STRONG CARIBBEAN SEA TRADES CONTINUE TO FEED ACROSS SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS. THE FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG E-NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PULSING DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING PERIODS WITH A PLUME OF SHORTER PERIOD SWELL
REACHING 8 FT AND PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST AS 91W DOWNSTREAM
DURING THE DAY.

$$
HUFFMAN


000
WTPQ33 PGUM 051537
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
200 AM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA MOVING OVER ENEWETAK...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 161.8E

ABOUT   40 MILES WEST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT  390 MILES NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  705 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 1160 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 161.8 DEGREES
EAST. NANGKA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST AT 13 MPH AND IS EXPECTED
TO TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY
BECOMING A TYPHOON TUESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 AM
LATER THIS MORNING

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 051536
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM QUICKLY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 143.7E...UPDATED WITH LATEST RADAR ESTIMATE.

ABOUT 145 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 150 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 165 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 190 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 AT 14 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 143.7 DEGREES EAST. TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS HEADING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 051536
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 AM CHST MON JUL 6 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM QUICKLY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 143.7E...UPDATED WITH LATEST RADAR ESTIMATE.

ABOUT 145 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 150 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 165 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 190 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 AT 14 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 143.7 DEGREES EAST. TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS HEADING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 051300
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ROTA.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 144.4E...UPDATED WITH LATEST RADAR ESTIMATE.

ABOUT  85 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT  95 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 110 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 145 MILES NORTH OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 AT 14 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.4 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER IS
HEADING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME A NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE...AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 051300
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ROTA.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 144.4E...UPDATED WITH LATEST RADAR ESTIMATE.

ABOUT  85 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT  95 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 110 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 145 MILES NORTH OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 AT 14 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.4 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER IS
HEADING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME A NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE...AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 051300
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ROTA.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 144.4E...UPDATED WITH LATEST RADAR ESTIMATE.

ABOUT  85 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT  95 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 110 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 145 MILES NORTH OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 AT 14 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.4 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER IS
HEADING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME A NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE...AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 051300
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ROTA.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 144.4E...UPDATED WITH LATEST RADAR ESTIMATE.

ABOUT  85 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT  95 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 110 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 145 MILES NORTH OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 AT 14 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.4 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER IS
HEADING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME A NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE...AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ33 PGUM 051300
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
1100 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA MOVING OVER ENEWETAK...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 162.4E

ABOUT   15 MILES SOUTH OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT  665 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 162.4 DEGREES
EAST. NANGKA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST AT 14 MPH AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT THEN MAKE A SLIGHT TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST MONDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVERNIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BECOME A TYPHOON ON MONDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 051300
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
1100 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA MOVING OVER ENEWETAK...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 162.4E

ABOUT   15 MILES SOUTH OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT  665 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 162.4 DEGREES
EAST. NANGKA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST AT 14 MPH AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT THEN MAKE A SLIGHT TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST MONDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVERNIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BECOME A TYPHOON ON MONDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 051300
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ROTA.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 144.4E...UPDATED WITH LATEST RADAR ESTIMATE.

ABOUT  85 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT  95 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 110 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 145 MILES NORTH OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 AT 14 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.4 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER IS
HEADING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME A NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE...AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 051300
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ROTA.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 144.4E...UPDATED WITH LATEST RADAR ESTIMATE.

ABOUT  85 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT  95 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 110 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 145 MILES NORTH OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 AT 14 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.4 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER IS
HEADING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME A NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE...AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 051300
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ROTA.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 144.4E...UPDATED WITH LATEST RADAR ESTIMATE.

ABOUT  85 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT  95 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 110 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 145 MILES NORTH OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 AT 14 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.4 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER IS
HEADING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME A NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE...AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 051300
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
1100 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ROTA.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 144.4E...UPDATED WITH LATEST RADAR ESTIMATE.

ABOUT  85 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT  95 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 110 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 145 MILES NORTH OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 AT 14 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.4 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER IS
HEADING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME A NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE...AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
ACPN50 PHFO 051154
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 1130 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA...IS LOCATED ABOUT 780 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 970 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU...HAWAII. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.


$$

REYNES




000
ACPN50 PHFO 051154
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 1130 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA...IS LOCATED ABOUT 780 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 970 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU...HAWAII. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.


$$

REYNES





000
ACPN50 PHFO 051154
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 1130 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA...IS LOCATED ABOUT 780 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 970 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU...HAWAII. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.


$$

REYNES




000
ACPN50 PHFO 051154
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 1130 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA...IS LOCATED ABOUT 780 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 970 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU...HAWAII. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.


$$

REYNES





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051153
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system about 1125 miles east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands has remained nearly stationary overnight. Shower
activity is minimal and displaced well to the south and southeast of
the center.  Development of this disturbance is not expected since
upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable in a day or so.
The low is forecast to drift westward or west-northwestward over
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure centered about 1450 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas,
Mexico have changed little in organization overnight. However,
environmental conditions remain conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression is expected to form by mid-week while
the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051153
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system about 1125 miles east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands has remained nearly stationary overnight. Shower
activity is minimal and displaced well to the south and southeast of
the center.  Development of this disturbance is not expected since
upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable in a day or so.
The low is forecast to drift westward or west-northwestward over
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure centered about 1450 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas,
Mexico have changed little in organization overnight. However,
environmental conditions remain conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression is expected to form by mid-week while
the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051147
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051147
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051147
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051147
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051147
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051147
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051147
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051147
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 051147
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT DOMINGO 5 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA LA FORMACION DE CICLONES TROPICALES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS 5 DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN


000
ABNT20 KNHC 051146
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
ABNT20 KNHC 051146
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
WTPQ83 PGUM 051104
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA CLOSE TO ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN ENEWETAK ATOLL IN THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 162.9 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  35 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
        ABOUT 640 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS QUICKLY MOVING WEST TOWARDS ENEWETAK ATOLL
AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE ATOLL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. NANGKA WILL CONTINUE WEST...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND COULD
BECOME A TYPHOON WEST OF ENEWETAK ON MONDAY.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL CONTINUE OVER
ENEWETAK THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF
THE STORM IS CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE ATOLL. AS THE CENTER MOVES
OVER THE ATOLL...WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE TEMPORARILY. THIS IS NOT
THE END OF THE STORM. DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF NANGKA PASSES OVER LATER TONIGHT. REMAIN IN SHELTER
UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER
ON MONDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING NORTH WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AROUND
MIDNIGHT...LOCAL TIME AS THE CENTER PASSES OVERHEAD...THIS WILL NOT
BE THE END OF THE STORM. WINDS WILL QUICKLY REVERSE TO SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE CENTER. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND
40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH LATER MONDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 13 AND 18 FEET TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. DANGEROUS SURF OF 14 TO 20 FEET WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG NORTH AND EAST
FACING SHORES AS NANGKA APPROACHES...WHILE INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET
IS POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES ONCE NANGKA PASSES TO THE
WEST.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 AM CHST MONDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ83 PGUM 051104
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA CLOSE TO ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN ENEWETAK ATOLL IN THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 162.9 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  35 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
        ABOUT 640 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS QUICKLY MOVING WEST TOWARDS ENEWETAK ATOLL
AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE ATOLL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. NANGKA WILL CONTINUE WEST...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND COULD
BECOME A TYPHOON WEST OF ENEWETAK ON MONDAY.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL CONTINUE OVER
ENEWETAK THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF
THE STORM IS CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE ATOLL. AS THE CENTER MOVES
OVER THE ATOLL...WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE TEMPORARILY. THIS IS NOT
THE END OF THE STORM. DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF NANGKA PASSES OVER LATER TONIGHT. REMAIN IN SHELTER
UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER
ON MONDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING NORTH WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AROUND
MIDNIGHT...LOCAL TIME AS THE CENTER PASSES OVERHEAD...THIS WILL NOT
BE THE END OF THE STORM. WINDS WILL QUICKLY REVERSE TO SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE CENTER. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND
40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH LATER MONDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 13 AND 18 FEET TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. DANGEROUS SURF OF 14 TO 20 FEET WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG NORTH AND EAST
FACING SHORES AS NANGKA APPROACHES...WHILE INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET
IS POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES ONCE NANGKA PASSES TO THE
WEST.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 AM CHST MONDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ83 PGUM 051104
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA CLOSE TO ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN ENEWETAK ATOLL IN THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 162.9 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  35 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
        ABOUT 640 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS QUICKLY MOVING WEST TOWARDS ENEWETAK ATOLL
AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE ATOLL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. NANGKA WILL CONTINUE WEST...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND COULD
BECOME A TYPHOON WEST OF ENEWETAK ON MONDAY.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL CONTINUE OVER
ENEWETAK THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF
THE STORM IS CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE ATOLL. AS THE CENTER MOVES
OVER THE ATOLL...WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE TEMPORARILY. THIS IS NOT
THE END OF THE STORM. DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF NANGKA PASSES OVER LATER TONIGHT. REMAIN IN SHELTER
UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER
ON MONDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING NORTH WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AROUND
MIDNIGHT...LOCAL TIME AS THE CENTER PASSES OVERHEAD...THIS WILL NOT
BE THE END OF THE STORM. WINDS WILL QUICKLY REVERSE TO SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE CENTER. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND
40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH LATER MONDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 13 AND 18 FEET TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. DANGEROUS SURF OF 14 TO 20 FEET WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG NORTH AND EAST
FACING SHORES AS NANGKA APPROACHES...WHILE INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET
IS POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES ONCE NANGKA PASSES TO THE
WEST.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 AM CHST MONDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ83 PGUM 051104
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA CLOSE TO ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN ENEWETAK ATOLL IN THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 162.9 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  35 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
        ABOUT 640 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS QUICKLY MOVING WEST TOWARDS ENEWETAK ATOLL
AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE ATOLL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. NANGKA WILL CONTINUE WEST...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND COULD
BECOME A TYPHOON WEST OF ENEWETAK ON MONDAY.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL CONTINUE OVER
ENEWETAK THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF
THE STORM IS CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE ATOLL. AS THE CENTER MOVES
OVER THE ATOLL...WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE TEMPORARILY. THIS IS NOT
THE END OF THE STORM. DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF NANGKA PASSES OVER LATER TONIGHT. REMAIN IN SHELTER
UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER
ON MONDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING NORTH WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AROUND
MIDNIGHT...LOCAL TIME AS THE CENTER PASSES OVERHEAD...THIS WILL NOT
BE THE END OF THE STORM. WINDS WILL QUICKLY REVERSE TO SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE CENTER. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND
40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH LATER MONDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 13 AND 18 FEET TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. DANGEROUS SURF OF 14 TO 20 FEET WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG NORTH AND EAST
FACING SHORES AS NANGKA APPROACHES...WHILE INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET
IS POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES ONCE NANGKA PASSES TO THE
WEST.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 AM CHST MONDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ83 PGUM 051104
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA CLOSE TO ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN ENEWETAK ATOLL IN THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 162.9 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  35 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
        ABOUT 640 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS QUICKLY MOVING WEST TOWARDS ENEWETAK ATOLL
AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE ATOLL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. NANGKA WILL CONTINUE WEST...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND COULD
BECOME A TYPHOON WEST OF ENEWETAK ON MONDAY.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL CONTINUE OVER
ENEWETAK THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF
THE STORM IS CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE ATOLL. AS THE CENTER MOVES
OVER THE ATOLL...WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE TEMPORARILY. THIS IS NOT
THE END OF THE STORM. DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF NANGKA PASSES OVER LATER TONIGHT. REMAIN IN SHELTER
UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER
ON MONDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING NORTH WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AROUND
MIDNIGHT...LOCAL TIME AS THE CENTER PASSES OVERHEAD...THIS WILL NOT
BE THE END OF THE STORM. WINDS WILL QUICKLY REVERSE TO SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE CENTER. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND
40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH LATER MONDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 13 AND 18 FEET TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. DANGEROUS SURF OF 14 TO 20 FEET WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG NORTH AND EAST
FACING SHORES AS NANGKA APPROACHES...WHILE INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET
IS POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES ONCE NANGKA PASSES TO THE
WEST.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 AM CHST MONDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

W. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ83 PGUM 051104
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA CLOSE TO ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN ENEWETAK ATOLL IN THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 162.9 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  35 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
        ABOUT 640 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS QUICKLY MOVING WEST TOWARDS ENEWETAK ATOLL
AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE ATOLL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. NANGKA WILL CONTINUE WEST...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND COULD
BECOME A TYPHOON WEST OF ENEWETAK ON MONDAY.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL CONTINUE OVER
ENEWETAK THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF
THE STORM IS CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE ATOLL. AS THE CENTER MOVES
OVER THE ATOLL...WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE TEMPORARILY. THIS IS NOT
THE END OF THE STORM. DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF NANGKA PASSES OVER LATER TONIGHT. REMAIN IN SHELTER
UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER
ON MONDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING NORTH WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AROUND
MIDNIGHT...LOCAL TIME AS THE CENTER PASSES OVERHEAD...THIS WILL NOT
BE THE END OF THE STORM. WINDS WILL QUICKLY REVERSE TO SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE CENTER. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND
40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH LATER MONDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 13 AND 18 FEET TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. DANGEROUS SURF OF 14 TO 20 FEET WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG NORTH AND EAST
FACING SHORES AS NANGKA APPROACHES...WHILE INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET
IS POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES ONCE NANGKA PASSES TO THE
WEST.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 AM CHST MONDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 051039
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 73W-77W THROUGH MON MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED
BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 40W/41W
FROM 5N-15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 51W/52W FROM
5N-13N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 80W/81W
FROM 10N-18N MOVING W 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 19N16W ALONG 11N19W TO 8N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 6N35W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N40W THEN
RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 7N43W TO E OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 8N51W. AN AREA OF SPEED CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM
9N46W 8N54W TO 11N63W INCLUDING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS INLAND IS CENTERED OVER TENNESSEE WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING S TO THE N GULF COAST GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE
N GULF COAST BETWEEN PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO VERMILION BAY
LOUISIANA. AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AGAIN THIS
MORNING EXTENDING FROM NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA THROUGH AN UPPER
LOW NEAR 23N89W OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INCLUDING THE NW
CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST
OF MEXICO S OF 22N AND W OF 95W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND
THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF
AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST REMAINS OVER THE W GULF LIMITING
SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR ORLANDO
FLORIDA TO TEXAS. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N W
OF 84W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ALLOWING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 64W LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING.
A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH MON MORNING. TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE BASIN
THROUGH MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN
MON WITH A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN MON
NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MON. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
RETURN TUE AND WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N76W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N
BETWEEN 77W-80W. LARGE THE UPPER LOW IS TO THE E CENTERED NEAR
27N70W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 64W-74W. THE ATLC BASIN IS
DOMINATED BY AN E/W SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH N
OF THE AREA NEAR 34N43W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH
32N55W TO ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE NEST PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN
DUST COVERS A SLIGHTLY SMALLER AREA OF THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ
TO 21N/22N TO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 051039
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 73W-77W THROUGH MON MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED
BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 40W/41W
FROM 5N-15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 51W/52W FROM
5N-13N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 80W/81W
FROM 10N-18N MOVING W 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 19N16W ALONG 11N19W TO 8N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 6N35W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N40W THEN
RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 7N43W TO E OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 8N51W. AN AREA OF SPEED CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM
9N46W 8N54W TO 11N63W INCLUDING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS INLAND IS CENTERED OVER TENNESSEE WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING S TO THE N GULF COAST GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE
N GULF COAST BETWEEN PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO VERMILION BAY
LOUISIANA. AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AGAIN THIS
MORNING EXTENDING FROM NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA THROUGH AN UPPER
LOW NEAR 23N89W OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INCLUDING THE NW
CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST
OF MEXICO S OF 22N AND W OF 95W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND
THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF
AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST REMAINS OVER THE W GULF LIMITING
SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR ORLANDO
FLORIDA TO TEXAS. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N W
OF 84W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ALLOWING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 64W LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING.
A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH MON MORNING. TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE BASIN
THROUGH MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN
MON WITH A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN MON
NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MON. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
RETURN TUE AND WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N76W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N
BETWEEN 77W-80W. LARGE THE UPPER LOW IS TO THE E CENTERED NEAR
27N70W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 64W-74W. THE ATLC BASIN IS
DOMINATED BY AN E/W SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH N
OF THE AREA NEAR 34N43W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH
32N55W TO ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE NEST PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN
DUST COVERS A SLIGHTLY SMALLER AREA OF THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ
TO 21N/22N TO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 051001
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF
39 TO 73 MPH...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 145.1E...UPDATED WITH LATEST RADAR ESTIMATE.

ABOUT  35 MILES WEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT  45 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  65 MILES NORTH OF ROTA
ABOUT 110 MILES NORTH OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...320 AT 14 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
145.1 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER IS
HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 MPH. THE FORWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...BUT MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST
TRACK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE...AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 AM EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT/GUARD/EDSON


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 051001
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF
39 TO 73 MPH...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 145.1E...UPDATED WITH LATEST RADAR ESTIMATE.

ABOUT  35 MILES WEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT  45 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT  65 MILES NORTH OF ROTA
ABOUT 110 MILES NORTH OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...320 AT 14 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
145.1 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER IS
HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 MPH. THE FORWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...BUT MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST
TRACK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE...AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 AM EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT/GUARD/EDSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050949
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 07N123W MOVING WEST-
NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. THE LOW CENTER FORMED ALONG A WELL DEFINED
TROPICAL WAVE...THAT WAS IN A LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS INDUCED BY A KELVIN WAVE
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 131W AND
133W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 128W AND
131W...AND FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 126W AND 129W. THE CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 106W/107W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...DRIFTING
WESTWARD. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
FROM 08N TO 17N BETWEEN 108W AND 117W.

A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N SOUTHWARD ALONG
118W/119W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ WAS ANALYZED. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W...FROM 07N TO 09N
BETWEEN 82W AND 84W...FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W...AND
FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 99W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 06N102W AND 05N105W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 33N131W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N NORTHWARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N127W.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 08N
TO 24N BETWEEN 116W AND 140W.

A 04/1532 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED FRESH GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BETWEEN RELATIVELY LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE
NORTH. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALLOWING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN NW FLOW OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS..

THE CARIBBEAN SEA JET...THAT EXTENDS INTO THE FAR EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC OCEAN...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PULSING STRONG GAP WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE MAIN PULSES ARE OCCURRING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A PLUME OF SHORTER PERIOD
SWELL OF 8 FT PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST AS 95W DOWNSTREAM DURING
THE DAY. FRESH GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF
PANAMA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE 4 TO 5 FT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW.

A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N131W. A RIDGE EXTENDS
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE HIGH CENTER...TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE.

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 14N139W. THE OVERALL TREND
IS FOR WEAKENING AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
NOTED AS CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS. THE LOW WILL DRIFT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. A KELVIN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUES TO AID
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ACTIVE WEATHER FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN
90W AND 125W. THE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE KELVIN WAVE HELPED WITH THE GENERATION OF
BOTH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT ARE DESCRIBED IN OTHER
PARAGRAPHS. THE CONTINUED PRECIPITATION ALSO HAS HELPED TO
GENERATE AN UNSTABLE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT WHICH HAS LED TO A
BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ.

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050949
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 07N123W MOVING WEST-
NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. THE LOW CENTER FORMED ALONG A WELL DEFINED
TROPICAL WAVE...THAT WAS IN A LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS INDUCED BY A KELVIN WAVE
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 131W AND
133W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 128W AND
131W...AND FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 126W AND 129W. THE CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 106W/107W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...DRIFTING
WESTWARD. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
FROM 08N TO 17N BETWEEN 108W AND 117W.

A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N SOUTHWARD ALONG
118W/119W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ WAS ANALYZED. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W...FROM 07N TO 09N
BETWEEN 82W AND 84W...FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W...AND
FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 99W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 06N102W AND 05N105W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 33N131W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N NORTHWARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N127W.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 08N
TO 24N BETWEEN 116W AND 140W.

A 04/1532 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED FRESH GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BETWEEN RELATIVELY LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE
NORTH. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALLOWING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN NW FLOW OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS..

THE CARIBBEAN SEA JET...THAT EXTENDS INTO THE FAR EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC OCEAN...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PULSING STRONG GAP WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE MAIN PULSES ARE OCCURRING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A PLUME OF SHORTER PERIOD
SWELL OF 8 FT PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST AS 95W DOWNSTREAM DURING
THE DAY. FRESH GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF
PANAMA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE 4 TO 5 FT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW.

A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N131W. A RIDGE EXTENDS
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE HIGH CENTER...TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE.

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 14N139W. THE OVERALL TREND
IS FOR WEAKENING AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
NOTED AS CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS. THE LOW WILL DRIFT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. A KELVIN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUES TO AID
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ACTIVE WEATHER FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN
90W AND 125W. THE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE KELVIN WAVE HELPED WITH THE GENERATION OF
BOTH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT ARE DESCRIBED IN OTHER
PARAGRAPHS. THE CONTINUED PRECIPITATION ALSO HAS HELPED TO
GENERATE AN UNSTABLE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT WHICH HAS LED TO A
BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ.

$$
MT



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 050944
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
800 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA JUST EAST OF ENEWETAK...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 162.9E

ABOUT   35 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT  640 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 1230 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 162.9 DEGREES
EAST. NANGKA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST AT 14 MPH AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT THEN MAKE A SLIGHT TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST MONDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS
TRACK WILL BRING NANGKA NEAR ENEWETAK TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVERNIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BECOME A TYPHOON ON MONDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 AM EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 050711
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
500 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...NANGKA NEARS ENEWETAK...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 163.8E

ABOUT   95 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT  585 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 1125 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 163.8 DEGREES
EAST. NANGKA CONTINUES MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH. NANGKA WILL MAKE A SLIGHT
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK WILL BRING NANGKA NEAR ENEWETAK
THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA WILL CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
COULD BECOME A TYPHOON OVERNIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS EVENING AT 800 PM CHST FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 1100 PM CHST.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 050701
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
500 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM PASSING OVER ROTA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF
39 TO 73 MPH...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 145.3E

ABOUT  10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT  55 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT  80 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH...020 AT 12 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
145.3 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER HAS
BEEN HEADING NORTH AT ABOUT 12 MPH THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE
MOTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE...AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS EVENING AT 800 PM FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
AT 1100 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT/GUARD/EDSON


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 050701
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
500 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM PASSING OVER ROTA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF
39 TO 73 MPH...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 145.3E

ABOUT  10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT  55 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT  80 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH...020 AT 12 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
145.3 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER HAS
BEEN HEADING NORTH AT ABOUT 12 MPH THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE
MOTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE...AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS EVENING AT 800 PM FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
AT 1100 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT/GUARD/EDSON



000
ACPN50 PHFO 050552
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
DECREASED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS AND REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA...IS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 960 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU...HAWAII. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.


$$

REYNES






000
ACPN50 PHFO 050552
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
DECREASED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS AND REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA...IS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 960 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU...HAWAII. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.


$$

REYNES





000
ACPN50 PHFO 050552
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
DECREASED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS AND REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA...IS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 960 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU...HAWAII. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.


$$

REYNES






000
ACPN50 PHFO 050552
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
DECREASED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS AND REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA...IS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 960 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU...HAWAII. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.


$$

REYNES





000
AXNT20 KNHC 050544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 73W-78W THROUGH MON MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED
BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N38W
TO 5N40W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 49W/50W FROM
5N-13N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 46W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 77W/78W
FROM OVER JAMAICA TO 11N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
TRAILING A SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 18N16W ALONG 11N20W TO 8N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 7N31W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N38W THEN
RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 6N41W TO E OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 7N49W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO THE N GULF COAST GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N TO THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 86W-88W. AN
UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AGAIN TONIGHT EXTENDING
FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 23N90W
TO THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR MERIDA. THE UPPER TROUGH IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF 30N TO
JUST S OF NAPLES. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR
SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE W GULF LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP
CONVECTION. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC
ACROSS FLORIDA TO A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 28N84W TO NE TEXAS. THIS
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN
DUST COVERS THE CARIBBEAN LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ALLOWING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 64W LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR BUT HAZY SKIES AGAIN
TONIGHT. A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE
WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH MON MORNING.
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE
BASIN THROUGH THE SUN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E
CARIBBEAN MON.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MON WHEN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
RETURN TUE AND WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO 31N79W ENHANCING THE
ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. LARGE THE UPPER LOW IS TO
THE E CENTERED NEAR 27N70W. MOST OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN
E/W SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR
33N42W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N53W TO ACROSS
FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND EXTENDS FROM 27N54W TO
24N55W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR
SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ TO 24N/25N INTO
THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 050535
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A well-defined low pressure area has been nearly stationary about
1125 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands during the past
12 hours. Shower activity has decreased and remains displaced well
to the southeast of the center.  Although this low still has some
potential for development, upper-level winds are expected to prevent
formation after the weekend while the system drifts westward or
west-northwestward over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure centered about 1400 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas
Mexico have changed little in organization this evening. However,
environmental conditions remain conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while
the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 050535
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A well-defined low pressure area has been nearly stationary about
1125 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands during the past
12 hours. Shower activity has decreased and remains displaced well
to the southeast of the center.  Although this low still has some
potential for development, upper-level winds are expected to prevent
formation after the weekend while the system drifts westward or
west-northwestward over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure centered about 1400 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas
Mexico have changed little in organization this evening. However,
environmental conditions remain conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while
the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABNT20 KNHC 050533
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 050533
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
WTPQ83 PGUM 050527
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...NANGKA CONTINUING TOWARDS ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN ENEWETAK ATOLL IN THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN 12 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 164.1 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  115 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
        ABOUT  170 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF UJAE
        ABOUT  555 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS QUICKLY MOVING WEST TOWARDS ENEWETAK
ATOLL. NANGKA WILL CONTINUE WEST...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM NANGKA
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON LATER TONIGHT AS IT PASSES NEAR
ENEWETAK THIS EVENING.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS DAMAGING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA
NORTH OF UJAE. HOWEVER...A SMALL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO UJAE THIS MORNING. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL SEAS AND WINDS SUBSIDE. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND DECREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TONIGHT. LARGE WAVES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF UP TO 14
FEET AND BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET OF COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES THROUGH TODAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.T FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM NANGKA
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON TONIGHT AS IT PASSES NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF ENEWETAK THIS EVENING.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT TRACK HAS TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA BECOMING A TYPHOON THIS EVENING OR LATER TONIGHT WHILE
PASSING CLOSE TO ENEWETAK. RESIDENTS NEED TO GO TO SHELTERS OR STURDY
STRUCTURES WHICH CAN WITHSTAND DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE TYPHOON
CONDITIONS ARRIVE. BE AWARE OF FALLING PALM FRONDS AND
COCONUTS AND OTHER FLYING DEBRIS CAUSED BY STRONG WINDS. STAY OUT OF
THE WATER SINCE SURF IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND RIP CURRENTS WILL
BE LIFE THREATENING. MAKE SURE TO HAVE ADEQUATE FOOD AND WATER FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS
AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER ON MONDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM
YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING NORTH WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH LATE THIS EVENING AND
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND DECREASING TO BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH LATER
MONDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK KEEPS TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
JUST WEST OF ENEWETAK...BUT FASTER INTENSIFICATION WOULD BRING
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS TO THE ATOLL THIS EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET WILL BUILD TODAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
BETWEEN 13 AND 18 FEET TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 9 TO 14 FEET WILL
BUILD TO DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 14 TO 20 FEET TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
NANGKA NEARS. SURF WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG NORTH AND EAST
FACING SHORES AS NANGKA APPROACHES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 900 PM CHST THIS EVENING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

M. AYDLETT


000
WTPQ83 PGUM 050527
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...NANGKA CONTINUING TOWARDS ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN ENEWETAK ATOLL IN THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN 12 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 164.1 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  115 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
        ABOUT  170 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF UJAE
        ABOUT  555 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS QUICKLY MOVING WEST TOWARDS ENEWETAK
ATOLL. NANGKA WILL CONTINUE WEST...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM NANGKA
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON LATER TONIGHT AS IT PASSES NEAR
ENEWETAK THIS EVENING.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS DAMAGING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA
NORTH OF UJAE. HOWEVER...A SMALL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO UJAE THIS MORNING. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL SEAS AND WINDS SUBSIDE. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND DECREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TONIGHT. LARGE WAVES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF UP TO 14
FEET AND BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET OF COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES THROUGH TODAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.T FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM NANGKA
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON TONIGHT AS IT PASSES NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF ENEWETAK THIS EVENING.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT TRACK HAS TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA BECOMING A TYPHOON THIS EVENING OR LATER TONIGHT WHILE
PASSING CLOSE TO ENEWETAK. RESIDENTS NEED TO GO TO SHELTERS OR STURDY
STRUCTURES WHICH CAN WITHSTAND DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE TYPHOON
CONDITIONS ARRIVE. BE AWARE OF FALLING PALM FRONDS AND
COCONUTS AND OTHER FLYING DEBRIS CAUSED BY STRONG WINDS. STAY OUT OF
THE WATER SINCE SURF IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND RIP CURRENTS WILL
BE LIFE THREATENING. MAKE SURE TO HAVE ADEQUATE FOOD AND WATER FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS
AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER ON MONDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM
YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING NORTH WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH LATE THIS EVENING AND
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND DECREASING TO BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH LATER
MONDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK KEEPS TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
JUST WEST OF ENEWETAK...BUT FASTER INTENSIFICATION WOULD BRING
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS TO THE ATOLL THIS EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET WILL BUILD TODAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
BETWEEN 13 AND 18 FEET TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 9 TO 14 FEET WILL
BUILD TO DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 14 TO 20 FEET TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
NANGKA NEARS. SURF WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG NORTH AND EAST
FACING SHORES AS NANGKA APPROACHES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 900 PM CHST THIS EVENING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 050421 CCA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 19...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

CORRECT TO CANCEL TYPHOON WARNING FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM DRIFTING IN THE ROTA CHANNEL...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.

THE TYPHOON WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF
39 TO 73 MPH...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 144.9E

ABOUT  30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT  25 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  95 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 AT 3 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.9 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER HAS
BEEN DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 3 MPH THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE MOTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. CHAN-HOM WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL HEADING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE
PHILIPPINE SEA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AT 500 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT/GUARD/EDSON



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 050421 CCA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 19...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

CORRECT TO CANCEL TYPHOON WARNING FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM DRIFTING IN THE ROTA CHANNEL...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.

THE TYPHOON WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF
39 TO 73 MPH...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 144.9E

ABOUT  30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT  25 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  95 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 AT 3 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.9 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER HAS
BEEN DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 3 MPH THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE MOTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. CHAN-HOM WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL HEADING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE
PHILIPPINE SEA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AT 500 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT/GUARD/EDSON


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 050403
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM DRIFTING IN THE ROTA CHANNEL...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...TYPHOON WINDS ARE NOW
UNLIKELY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF
39 TO 73 MPH...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 144.9E

ABOUT  30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT  25 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  95 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 AT 3 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.9 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER HAS
BEEN DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 3 MPH THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE MOTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. CHAN-HOM WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL HEADING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE
PHILIPPINE SEA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AT 500 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT/GUARD/EDSON


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 050403
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM DRIFTING IN THE ROTA CHANNEL...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...TYPHOON WINDS ARE NOW
UNLIKELY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF
39 TO 73 MPH...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 144.9E

ABOUT  30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT  25 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  95 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 AT 3 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.9 DEGREES EAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER HAS
BEEN DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 3 MPH THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE MOTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. CHAN-HOM WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL HEADING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE
PHILIPPINE SEA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AT 500 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT/GUARD/EDSON



000
WTPQ33 PGUM 050314
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
200 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...NANGKA CONTINUING TOWARD ENEWETAK...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 164.1E

ABOUT  115 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT  170 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF UJAE
ABOUT  555 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 1315 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 164.1 DEGREES
EAST. NANGKA CONTINUES MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH. NANGKA WILL CONTINUE
IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS
TRACK WILL BRING NANGKA NEAR ENEWETAK THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA WILL CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
COULD BECOME A TYPHOON OVERNIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT 500 PM CHST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 PM CHST.

$$

M. AYDLETT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050230
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
1007 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 07N122W MOVING W-NW AT 10
KT. THE LOW FORMED ALONG A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IN A LARGE
AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION INDUCED BY A KELVIN WAVE OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE E OF THE CENTER FROM 10N TO 11N
BETWEEN 118W AND 125W. AN 11 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS INDICATED A
LARGE SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS OVER THIS AREA.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 10N ALONG 105W/106W DRIFTING W. THIS
IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
14N105W...WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
13N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 116W/117W MOVING W
10 TO 15 KT. THIS FEATURES SHOWS UP IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DESPITE STRONG AND DRY NW SHEAR...SPEED
CONVERGENCE OF FRESH TO STRONG SE FLOW NOTED IN AN 11 UTC
RAPIDSCAT PASS IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR
12N117W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N79W TO 09N85W TO 05N95W TO
05N100W. A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES INTERACTING WITH FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT HAVE BROKEN DOWN THE ITCZ W OF 105W...AND THE
ITCZ IS NOT CLEARLY EVIDENT AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 270 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 82W
AND 88W...AND WITHIN 360 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 105W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACTIVE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA EARLIER NEAR ISLA TORTUGA. THE GERMAN
RESEARCH VESSEL SONNE NEARBY REPORTED WINDS TO 25 KT NEAR THE
CONVECTION. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY OVER THE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST ON THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. RECENT ALTIMETER DATA INDICATES SEAS
OF 4 TO 5 FT OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND OPEN WATERS ELSEWHERE N
OF 15N E OF 120W. A 16 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED FRESH GAP WIND
FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BETWEEN RELATIVELY LOW
PRES S OF THE AREA AND RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
NORTH. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALLOWING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NW FLOW OFF THE
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...THE CARIBBEAN JET EXTENDING INTO THE FAR
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PULSING STRONG GAP
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE MAIN PULSES ARE
OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A PLUME OF SHORTER
PERIOD SWELL OF 8 FT PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST AS 95W DOWNSTREAM
DURING THE DAY. ELSEWHERE...FRESH GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
OUTSIDE OF THESE PLUMES...SEAS CONTINUE TO BE 4 TO 5 FT WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE OF 1018 MB CENTERED NEAR 27N131W
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE TO S OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. GENERALLY
MODERATE TRADES ARE NOTED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. A 1007 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 14N139W. THE OVERALL TREND IS WEAKENING AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED AS CONDITIONS BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS. THE LOW WILL DRIFT W OF THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A KELVIN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
CONTINUES TO AID LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ACTIVE WEATHER FROM
03N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 125W. THE ACTIVE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE KELVIN WAVE HELPED WITH THE GENERATION OF
BOTH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE CONTINUED
CONVECTION HAS ALSO HELPED TO GENERATE AN UNSTABLE BACKGROUND
ENVIRONMENT WHICH HAS LED TO A BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050230
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
1007 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 07N122W MOVING W-NW AT 10
KT. THE LOW FORMED ALONG A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IN A LARGE
AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION INDUCED BY A KELVIN WAVE OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE E OF THE CENTER FROM 10N TO 11N
BETWEEN 118W AND 125W. AN 11 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS INDICATED A
LARGE SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS OVER THIS AREA.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 10N ALONG 105W/106W DRIFTING W. THIS
IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
14N105W...WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
13N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 116W/117W MOVING W
10 TO 15 KT. THIS FEATURES SHOWS UP IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DESPITE STRONG AND DRY NW SHEAR...SPEED
CONVERGENCE OF FRESH TO STRONG SE FLOW NOTED IN AN 11 UTC
RAPIDSCAT PASS IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR
12N117W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N79W TO 09N85W TO 05N95W TO
05N100W. A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES INTERACTING WITH FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT HAVE BROKEN DOWN THE ITCZ W OF 105W...AND THE
ITCZ IS NOT CLEARLY EVIDENT AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 270 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 82W
AND 88W...AND WITHIN 360 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 105W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACTIVE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA EARLIER NEAR ISLA TORTUGA. THE GERMAN
RESEARCH VESSEL SONNE NEARBY REPORTED WINDS TO 25 KT NEAR THE
CONVECTION. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY OVER THE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST ON THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. RECENT ALTIMETER DATA INDICATES SEAS
OF 4 TO 5 FT OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND OPEN WATERS ELSEWHERE N
OF 15N E OF 120W. A 16 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED FRESH GAP WIND
FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BETWEEN RELATIVELY LOW
PRES S OF THE AREA AND RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
NORTH. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALLOWING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NW FLOW OFF THE
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...THE CARIBBEAN JET EXTENDING INTO THE FAR
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PULSING STRONG GAP
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE MAIN PULSES ARE
OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A PLUME OF SHORTER
PERIOD SWELL OF 8 FT PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST AS 95W DOWNSTREAM
DURING THE DAY. ELSEWHERE...FRESH GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
OUTSIDE OF THESE PLUMES...SEAS CONTINUE TO BE 4 TO 5 FT WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE OF 1018 MB CENTERED NEAR 27N131W
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE TO S OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. GENERALLY
MODERATE TRADES ARE NOTED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. A 1007 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 14N139W. THE OVERALL TREND IS WEAKENING AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED AS CONDITIONS BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS. THE LOW WILL DRIFT W OF THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A KELVIN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
CONTINUES TO AID LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ACTIVE WEATHER FROM
03N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 125W. THE ACTIVE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE KELVIN WAVE HELPED WITH THE GENERATION OF
BOTH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE CONTINUED
CONVECTION HAS ALSO HELPED TO GENERATE AN UNSTABLE BACKGROUND
ENVIRONMENT WHICH HAS LED TO A BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ.

$$
CHRISTENSEN




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