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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272204
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THU AFTERNOON.
SEAS THERE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE IN THE 11-17 FT RANGE.
NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT  OVER
THE AREA FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 120W AND FROM 08N TO
19N BETWEEN 113W AND 124W. THE HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO CAUSING THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THU. WHEN THE GALE WINDS DIMINISH IN 48 HOURS...MAXIMUM
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 10-13 FT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WINDS
TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY EARLY THU MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING
FROM 9-12 FT AT THAT TIME. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY THU AFTERNOON. THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH
NE SWELL MERGING WITH THE AREA OF SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 07N78W TO 04N83W TO
05N90W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N90W TO 06N122W TO
08N132W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
WITH A 100-120 KT SOUTHERLY JET ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH
PROPELLING UPPER MOISTURE INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A
SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH LIES FROM 26N134W TO 20N131W
TO 16N134W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH
FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS E OF THE TROUGH WITH AXIS ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO N OF 15N. IN
THE DEEP TROPICS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 01N97W.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 24N140W.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALONG FRONT. SEAS TO 9 FT NW SWELL
LIE PRIMARILY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
TONIGHT...AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THE 8 FT.

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE GULF
OF PANAMA WILL BEGIN AGAIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THU...WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 10 FT.

$$
SCHAUER/DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272204 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THU AFTERNOON.
SEAS THERE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE IN THE 11-17 FT RANGE.
NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT  OVER
THE AREA FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 120W AND FROM 08N TO
19N BETWEEN 113W AND 124W. THE HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO CAUSING THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THU. WHEN THE GALE WINDS DIMINISH IN 48 HOURS...MAXIMUM
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 10-13 FT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WINDS
TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY EARLY THU MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING
FROM 9-12 FT AT THAT TIME. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY THU AFTERNOON. THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH
NE SWELL MERGING WITH THE AREA OF SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 07N78W TO 04N83W TO
05N90W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N90W TO 06N122W TO
08N132W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
WITH A 100-120 KT SOUTHERLY JET ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH
PROPELLING UPPER MOISTURE INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A
SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH LIES FROM 26N134W TO 20N131W
TO 16N134W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH
FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS E OF THE TROUGH WITH AXIS ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO N OF 15N. IN
THE DEEP TROPICS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 01N97W.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 24N140W.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALONG FRONT. SEAS TO 9 FT NW SWELL
LIE PRIMARILY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
TONIGHT...AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THE 8 FT.

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE GULF
OF PANAMA WILL BEGIN AGAIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THU...WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 10 FT.

$$
SCHAUER/DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272204 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THU AFTERNOON.
SEAS THERE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE IN THE 11-17 FT RANGE.
NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT  OVER
THE AREA FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 120W AND FROM 08N TO
19N BETWEEN 113W AND 124W. THE HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO CAUSING THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THU. WHEN THE GALE WINDS DIMINISH IN 48 HOURS...MAXIMUM
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 10-13 FT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WINDS
TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY EARLY THU MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING
FROM 9-12 FT AT THAT TIME. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY THU AFTERNOON. THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH
NE SWELL MERGING WITH THE AREA OF SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 07N78W TO 04N83W TO
05N90W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N90W TO 06N122W TO
08N132W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
WITH A 100-120 KT SOUTHERLY JET ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH
PROPELLING UPPER MOISTURE INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A
SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH LIES FROM 26N134W TO 20N131W
TO 16N134W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH
FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS E OF THE TROUGH WITH AXIS ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO N OF 15N. IN
THE DEEP TROPICS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 01N97W.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 24N140W.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALONG FRONT. SEAS TO 9 FT NW SWELL
LIE PRIMARILY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
TONIGHT...AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THE 8 FT.

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE GULF
OF PANAMA WILL BEGIN AGAIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THU...WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 10 FT.

$$
SCHAUER/DGS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 272015
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 28N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W ALONG A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO 21N76W. THIS
GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES E WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY LOCATED E OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT. SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 6N10W TO 2N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 2N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 3W-14W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 17W-
22W...AND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 28W-44W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 23N96W. 10-20 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER
THE GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF WITH SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER THE SE GULF. COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONT REMAINS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 85W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF E
OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF...TEXAS...AND
MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 100W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 21N76W TO 17N80W TO THE N
COAST OF HONDURAS AT 16N87W. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE EXTENDS
FROM HAITI AT 20N73W TO COSTA RICA AT 11N83W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF THE SHEAR LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HAITI. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 9N-17N W OF 79W TO INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA.
ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE TOP
OF A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY AND DISSIPATING.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE DUE TO PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY. FURTHER E...TRADEWINDS ARE
ADVECTING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
MORE SHOWERS OVER ALL OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
BOTH SOURCES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A GALE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N64W TO E CUBA AT 21N76W. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E EXTENDING FROM 31N61W TO
HAITI AT 20N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM
E OF THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT N OF 23N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 23N. A LARGE 1043 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE AZORES AT 40N24W. SURFACE RIDGING
IS N OF 20N E OF 50W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W SUPPORTING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEMS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED FURTHER E AT
27N30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO
MERGE WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 272015
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 28N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W ALONG A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO 21N76W. THIS
GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES E WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY LOCATED E OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT. SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 6N10W TO 2N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 2N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 3W-14W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 17W-
22W...AND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 28W-44W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 23N96W. 10-20 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER
THE GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF WITH SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER THE SE GULF. COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONT REMAINS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 85W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF E
OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF...TEXAS...AND
MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 100W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 21N76W TO 17N80W TO THE N
COAST OF HONDURAS AT 16N87W. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE EXTENDS
FROM HAITI AT 20N73W TO COSTA RICA AT 11N83W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF THE SHEAR LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HAITI. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 9N-17N W OF 79W TO INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA.
ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE TOP
OF A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY AND DISSIPATING.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE DUE TO PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY. FURTHER E...TRADEWINDS ARE
ADVECTING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
MORE SHOWERS OVER ALL OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
BOTH SOURCES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A GALE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N64W TO E CUBA AT 21N76W. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E EXTENDING FROM 31N61W TO
HAITI AT 20N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM
E OF THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT N OF 23N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 23N. A LARGE 1043 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE AZORES AT 40N24W. SURFACE RIDGING
IS N OF 20N E OF 50W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W SUPPORTING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEMS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED FURTHER E AT
27N30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO
MERGE WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 272015
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 28N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W ALONG A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO 21N76W. THIS
GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES E WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY LOCATED E OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT. SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 6N10W TO 2N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 2N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 3W-14W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 17W-
22W...AND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 28W-44W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 23N96W. 10-20 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER
THE GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF WITH SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER THE SE GULF. COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONT REMAINS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 85W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF E
OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF...TEXAS...AND
MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 100W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 21N76W TO 17N80W TO THE N
COAST OF HONDURAS AT 16N87W. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE EXTENDS
FROM HAITI AT 20N73W TO COSTA RICA AT 11N83W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF THE SHEAR LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HAITI. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 9N-17N W OF 79W TO INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA.
ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE TOP
OF A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY AND DISSIPATING.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE DUE TO PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY. FURTHER E...TRADEWINDS ARE
ADVECTING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
MORE SHOWERS OVER ALL OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
BOTH SOURCES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A GALE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N64W TO E CUBA AT 21N76W. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E EXTENDING FROM 31N61W TO
HAITI AT 20N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM
E OF THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT N OF 23N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 23N. A LARGE 1043 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE AZORES AT 40N24W. SURFACE RIDGING
IS N OF 20N E OF 50W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W SUPPORTING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEMS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED FURTHER E AT
27N30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO
MERGE WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 272015
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 28N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W ALONG A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO 21N76W. THIS
GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES E WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY LOCATED E OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT. SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 6N10W TO 2N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 2N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 3W-14W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 17W-
22W...AND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 28W-44W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 23N96W. 10-20 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER
THE GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF WITH SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER THE SE GULF. COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONT REMAINS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 85W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF E
OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF...TEXAS...AND
MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 100W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 21N76W TO 17N80W TO THE N
COAST OF HONDURAS AT 16N87W. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE EXTENDS
FROM HAITI AT 20N73W TO COSTA RICA AT 11N83W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF THE SHEAR LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HAITI. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 9N-17N W OF 79W TO INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA.
ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE TOP
OF A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY AND DISSIPATING.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE DUE TO PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY. FURTHER E...TRADEWINDS ARE
ADVECTING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
MORE SHOWERS OVER ALL OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
BOTH SOURCES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A GALE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N64W TO E CUBA AT 21N76W. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E EXTENDING FROM 31N61W TO
HAITI AT 20N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM
E OF THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT N OF 23N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 23N. A LARGE 1043 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE AZORES AT 40N24W. SURFACE RIDGING
IS N OF 20N E OF 50W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W SUPPORTING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEMS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED FURTHER E AT
27N30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO
MERGE WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 28N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W ALONG A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO 21N76W. THIS
GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES E WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY LOCATED E OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT. SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 6N10W TO 2N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 2N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 3W-14W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 17W-
22W...AND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 28W-44W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 23N96W. 10-20 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER
THE GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF WITH SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER THE SE GULF. COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONT REMAINS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 85W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF E
OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF...TEXAS...AND
MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 100W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 21N76W TO 17N80W TO THE N
COAST OF HONDURAS AT 16N87W. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE EXTENDS
FROM HAITI AT 20N73W TO COSTA RICA AT 11N83W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF THE SHEAR LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HAITI. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 9N-17N W OF 79W TO INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA.
ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE TOP
OF A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY AND DISSIPATING.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE DUE TO PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY. FURTHER E...TRADEWINDS ARE
ADVECTING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
MORE SHOWERS OVER ALL OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
BOTH SOURCES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A GALE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N64W TO E CUBA AT 21N76W. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E EXTENDING FROM 31N61W TO
HAITI AT 20N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM
E OF THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT N OF 23N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 23N. A LARGE 1043 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE AZORES AT 40N24W. SURFACE RIDGING
IS N OF 20N E OF 50W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W SUPPORTING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEMS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED FURTHER E AT
27N30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO
MERGE WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 28N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W ALONG A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO 21N76W. THIS
GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES E WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY LOCATED E OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT. SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 6N10W TO 2N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 2N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 3W-14W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 17W-
22W...AND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 28W-44W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 23N96W. 10-20 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER
THE GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF WITH SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER THE SE GULF. COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONT REMAINS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 85W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF E
OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF...TEXAS...AND
MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 100W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 21N76W TO 17N80W TO THE N
COAST OF HONDURAS AT 16N87W. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE EXTENDS
FROM HAITI AT 20N73W TO COSTA RICA AT 11N83W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF THE SHEAR LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HAITI. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 9N-17N W OF 79W TO INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA.
ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE TOP
OF A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY AND DISSIPATING.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE DUE TO PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY. FURTHER E...TRADEWINDS ARE
ADVECTING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
MORE SHOWERS OVER ALL OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
BOTH SOURCES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A GALE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N64W TO E CUBA AT 21N76W. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E EXTENDING FROM 31N61W TO
HAITI AT 20N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM
E OF THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT N OF 23N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 23N. A LARGE 1043 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE AZORES AT 40N24W. SURFACE RIDGING
IS N OF 20N E OF 50W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W SUPPORTING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEMS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED FURTHER E AT
27N30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO
MERGE WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 28N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W ALONG A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO 21N76W. THIS
GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES E WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY LOCATED E OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT. SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 6N10W TO 2N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 2N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 3W-14W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 17W-
22W...AND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 28W-44W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 23N96W. 10-20 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER
THE GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF WITH SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER THE SE GULF. COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONT REMAINS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 85W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF E
OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF...TEXAS...AND
MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 100W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 21N76W TO 17N80W TO THE N
COAST OF HONDURAS AT 16N87W. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE EXTENDS
FROM HAITI AT 20N73W TO COSTA RICA AT 11N83W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF THE SHEAR LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HAITI. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 9N-17N W OF 79W TO INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA.
ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE TOP
OF A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY AND DISSIPATING.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE DUE TO PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY. FURTHER E...TRADEWINDS ARE
ADVECTING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
MORE SHOWERS OVER ALL OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
BOTH SOURCES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A GALE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N64W TO E CUBA AT 21N76W. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E EXTENDING FROM 31N61W TO
HAITI AT 20N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM
E OF THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT N OF 23N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 23N. A LARGE 1043 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE AZORES AT 40N24W. SURFACE RIDGING
IS N OF 20N E OF 50W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W SUPPORTING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEMS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED FURTHER E AT
27N30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO
MERGE WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 28N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W ALONG A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO 21N76W. THIS
GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES E WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY LOCATED E OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT. SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 6N10W TO 2N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 2N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 3W-14W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 17W-
22W...AND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 28W-44W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 23N96W. 10-20 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER
THE GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF WITH SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER THE SE GULF. COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONT REMAINS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 85W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF E
OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF...TEXAS...AND
MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 100W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 21N76W TO 17N80W TO THE N
COAST OF HONDURAS AT 16N87W. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE EXTENDS
FROM HAITI AT 20N73W TO COSTA RICA AT 11N83W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF THE SHEAR LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HAITI. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 9N-17N W OF 79W TO INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA.
ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE TOP
OF A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY AND DISSIPATING.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE DUE TO PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY. FURTHER E...TRADEWINDS ARE
ADVECTING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
MORE SHOWERS OVER ALL OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
BOTH SOURCES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A GALE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N64W TO E CUBA AT 21N76W. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E EXTENDING FROM 31N61W TO
HAITI AT 20N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM
E OF THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT N OF 23N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 23N. A LARGE 1043 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE AZORES AT 40N24W. SURFACE RIDGING
IS N OF 20N E OF 50W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W SUPPORTING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEMS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED FURTHER E AT
27N30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO
MERGE WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271514
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO
14N96W. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 11-17 FT RANGE. A LARGE AREA OF N-
NE 20-30 KT WINDS IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM
16N95W TO 15N95W TO 12N98W WITH SEAS OF 10-15 FT. NE SWELLS THAT
HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS FROM 08N-14N
BETWEEN 94W-100W...AND ALSO S OF 10N BETWEEN 101W-112W. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT. THE
HIGH PRES CAUSING THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR THE GALE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO MINIMAL
THRESHOLD WITH MAX SEAS IN THE GULF EXPECTED AT AROUND 13 FT AT
THAT TIME.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NE 20-
25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 30 KT BY LATE TONIGHT AND
TO GALE FORCE OF 30-35 KT BY THU WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 9 TO 10
FT AT THAT TIME. THE GALE SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N78W TO 5N80W TO 5N90W. ITCZ FROM
5N90W TO 7N110W TO 6N120W TO 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-5N E OF 80W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
EXTENDS FROM 32N131W TO 13N120W. A 95-120 KT JETSTREAM ON THE W
SIDE OF THE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA AT 28N140W TO 14N127W. AN 95-
100 KT JET IS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N120W TO
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE
TROUGH WITH AXIS ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO N OF 15N. IN THE DEEP
TROPICS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 1N97W.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 23N140W.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALONG FRONT. NLY WINDS 15-20 KT ARE
W OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH 9 FT NW SWELL. OTHERWISE 8 FT NW SWELL
ARE NW OF A LINE FROM 32N1136W TO 18N140W. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE WED...AND WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT AND
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THE 8 FT.

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE GULF
OF PANAMA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED. THEN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-9
FT THU.

$$
DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271514
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO
14N96W. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 11-17 FT RANGE. A LARGE AREA OF N-
NE 20-30 KT WINDS IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM
16N95W TO 15N95W TO 12N98W WITH SEAS OF 10-15 FT. NE SWELLS THAT
HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS FROM 08N-14N
BETWEEN 94W-100W...AND ALSO S OF 10N BETWEEN 101W-112W. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT. THE
HIGH PRES CAUSING THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR THE GALE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO MINIMAL
THRESHOLD WITH MAX SEAS IN THE GULF EXPECTED AT AROUND 13 FT AT
THAT TIME.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NE 20-
25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 30 KT BY LATE TONIGHT AND
TO GALE FORCE OF 30-35 KT BY THU WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 9 TO 10
FT AT THAT TIME. THE GALE SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N78W TO 5N80W TO 5N90W. ITCZ FROM
5N90W TO 7N110W TO 6N120W TO 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-5N E OF 80W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
EXTENDS FROM 32N131W TO 13N120W. A 95-120 KT JETSTREAM ON THE W
SIDE OF THE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA AT 28N140W TO 14N127W. AN 95-
100 KT JET IS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N120W TO
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE
TROUGH WITH AXIS ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO N OF 15N. IN THE DEEP
TROPICS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 1N97W.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 23N140W.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALONG FRONT. NLY WINDS 15-20 KT ARE
W OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH 9 FT NW SWELL. OTHERWISE 8 FT NW SWELL
ARE NW OF A LINE FROM 32N1136W TO 18N140W. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE WED...AND WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT AND
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THE 8 FT.

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE GULF
OF PANAMA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED. THEN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-9
FT THU.

$$
DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271514
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO
14N96W. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 11-17 FT RANGE. A LARGE AREA OF N-
NE 20-30 KT WINDS IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM
16N95W TO 15N95W TO 12N98W WITH SEAS OF 10-15 FT. NE SWELLS THAT
HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS FROM 08N-14N
BETWEEN 94W-100W...AND ALSO S OF 10N BETWEEN 101W-112W. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT. THE
HIGH PRES CAUSING THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR THE GALE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO MINIMAL
THRESHOLD WITH MAX SEAS IN THE GULF EXPECTED AT AROUND 13 FT AT
THAT TIME.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NE 20-
25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 30 KT BY LATE TONIGHT AND
TO GALE FORCE OF 30-35 KT BY THU WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 9 TO 10
FT AT THAT TIME. THE GALE SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N78W TO 5N80W TO 5N90W. ITCZ FROM
5N90W TO 7N110W TO 6N120W TO 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-5N E OF 80W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
EXTENDS FROM 32N131W TO 13N120W. A 95-120 KT JETSTREAM ON THE W
SIDE OF THE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA AT 28N140W TO 14N127W. AN 95-
100 KT JET IS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N120W TO
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE
TROUGH WITH AXIS ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO N OF 15N. IN THE DEEP
TROPICS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 1N97W.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 23N140W.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALONG FRONT. NLY WINDS 15-20 KT ARE
W OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH 9 FT NW SWELL. OTHERWISE 8 FT NW SWELL
ARE NW OF A LINE FROM 32N1136W TO 18N140W. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE WED...AND WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT AND
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THE 8 FT.

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE GULF
OF PANAMA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED. THEN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-9
FT THU.

$$
DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271514
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO
14N96W. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 11-17 FT RANGE. A LARGE AREA OF N-
NE 20-30 KT WINDS IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM
16N95W TO 15N95W TO 12N98W WITH SEAS OF 10-15 FT. NE SWELLS THAT
HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS FROM 08N-14N
BETWEEN 94W-100W...AND ALSO S OF 10N BETWEEN 101W-112W. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT. THE
HIGH PRES CAUSING THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR THE GALE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO MINIMAL
THRESHOLD WITH MAX SEAS IN THE GULF EXPECTED AT AROUND 13 FT AT
THAT TIME.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NE 20-
25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 30 KT BY LATE TONIGHT AND
TO GALE FORCE OF 30-35 KT BY THU WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 9 TO 10
FT AT THAT TIME. THE GALE SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N78W TO 5N80W TO 5N90W. ITCZ FROM
5N90W TO 7N110W TO 6N120W TO 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-5N E OF 80W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
EXTENDS FROM 32N131W TO 13N120W. A 95-120 KT JETSTREAM ON THE W
SIDE OF THE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA AT 28N140W TO 14N127W. AN 95-
100 KT JET IS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N120W TO
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE
TROUGH WITH AXIS ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO N OF 15N. IN THE DEEP
TROPICS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 1N97W.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 23N140W.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALONG FRONT. NLY WINDS 15-20 KT ARE
W OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH 9 FT NW SWELL. OTHERWISE 8 FT NW SWELL
ARE NW OF A LINE FROM 32N1136W TO 18N140W. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE WED...AND WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT AND
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THE 8 FT.

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE GULF
OF PANAMA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED. THEN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-9
FT THU.

$$
DGS



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271100
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 27N BETWEEN 67W AND 79W W OF A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO 27N73W TO
22N77W. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT MOVES E WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED E OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT. SEE THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N13W TO 03N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01N33W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE 01S-04N BETWEEN 20W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N96W. SW UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN...BRINGING MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC
TO THE AREA. DESPITE THIS...THE GULF REMAINS CONVECTION FREE AS
THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED
THROUGH ON MONDAY PREVAILS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM 28N83W TO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N77W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF EXCEPT W OF 94W WHERE A
LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SE
CONUS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE E GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE W IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
E.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM 16N80W TO THE SW ATLANTIC NEAR 23N72W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM S OF THE BOUNDARY. A SHEAR
LINE EXTENDS S OF THIS TROUGH FROM 12N83W TO 16N80W. TO THE
W...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC ACROSS CUBA AND
THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 20N87W TO 22N80W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 77W WITH
ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS. TO THE W OF 77W...A
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT
FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH AND SHEAR LINE TO DISSIPATE AND THE COLD
FRONT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER FRONT AS IT MOVES E ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS W CUBA. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 29N81W TO 29N79W. A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO OVER THE W ATLANTIC
SUPPORTING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN GULF INTO THE W ATLANTIC FROM 23N78W TO 31N68W. TO THE
E...ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 23N72W TO 31N64W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 24N BETWEEN 57W-68W. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA NEAR THESE FRONTS
AND A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT. FOR MORE INFORMATION
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS FROM 24N48W TO 27N47W. A STATIONARY 1041 MB SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 39N25W AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE E AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE TROUGHS TO DISSIPATE. THE
FRONTS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC WILL MERGE AND THE NEW BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271100
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 27N BETWEEN 67W AND 79W W OF A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO 27N73W TO
22N77W. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT MOVES E WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED E OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT. SEE THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N13W TO 03N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01N33W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE 01S-04N BETWEEN 20W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N96W. SW UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN...BRINGING MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC
TO THE AREA. DESPITE THIS...THE GULF REMAINS CONVECTION FREE AS
THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED
THROUGH ON MONDAY PREVAILS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM 28N83W TO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N77W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF EXCEPT W OF 94W WHERE A
LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SE
CONUS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE E GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE W IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
E.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM 16N80W TO THE SW ATLANTIC NEAR 23N72W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM S OF THE BOUNDARY. A SHEAR
LINE EXTENDS S OF THIS TROUGH FROM 12N83W TO 16N80W. TO THE
W...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC ACROSS CUBA AND
THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 20N87W TO 22N80W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 77W WITH
ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS. TO THE W OF 77W...A
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT
FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH AND SHEAR LINE TO DISSIPATE AND THE COLD
FRONT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER FRONT AS IT MOVES E ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS W CUBA. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 29N81W TO 29N79W. A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO OVER THE W ATLANTIC
SUPPORTING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN GULF INTO THE W ATLANTIC FROM 23N78W TO 31N68W. TO THE
E...ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 23N72W TO 31N64W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 24N BETWEEN 57W-68W. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA NEAR THESE FRONTS
AND A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT. FOR MORE INFORMATION
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS FROM 24N48W TO 27N47W. A STATIONARY 1041 MB SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 39N25W AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE E AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE TROUGHS TO DISSIPATE. THE
FRONTS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC WILL MERGE AND THE NEW BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271005
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND THE GULF WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
16N95W TO 15N95W TO 14N96W. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 11-17 FT
RANGE. EARLIER OBSERVATIONS AS REPORTED EARLY MON EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SHIPS "ZCDI4"..."SLKR"...AND
"ZOAY4" VERIFIED THE GALE WIND CONDITIONS WITH SHIP "ZCDI4" NEAR
16N95W REPORTING 42 KT AT 00 UTC...SHIP "SLKR" NEAR 14N95W
REPORTING 40 KT AT 06 UTC AND SHIP "ZOAY4" NEAR 14N96W REPORTING
36 KT ALSO AT 06 UTC.

A LARGE AREA OF N-NE 20-30 KT WINDS IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM OF
A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 12N98W WITH SEAS OF 10-15 FT. NE
SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS FROM 08N-
14N BETWEEN 94W-101W...AND ALSO S OF 11N BETWEEN 101W-112W. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT. THE
HIGH PRES TIED TO CULPRIT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR THE GALE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO
MINIMAL THRESHOLD WITH MAX SEAS IN THE GULF EXPECTED AT AROUND
13 FT AT THAT TIME.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE
PRESENT NE 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 30 KT BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND TO GALE FORCE OF 30-35 KT BY LATE WED NIGHT
WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 9 TO 12 FT AT THAT TIME. MEAN ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THIS GALE EVENT IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR...BUT SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF ELSEWHERE FROM
09N-13N E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA AND ALSO WITHIN
60 NM OF A LINE FROM 09N88W TO 08N90W WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 02N78W TO 03N84W TO 05N89W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO THE ITCZ CONTINUING
TO 06N102W TO 07N112W TO 07N122W TO 08N130W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 78W-79.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 93W-94.5W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 32N133W SSE TO
23N130W...AND TO NEAR 11N123W. BROAD SCALE RIDGING IS NOTED ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD TO SE MEXICO...AND TO ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE FAR
NW PORTION OF THE AREA HAS STALL ALONG A POSITION FROM 31N135W
TO 23N140W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT W OF THE FRONT IS INDUCING N-
NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT THERE WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-10 FT.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
GRADIENT BEHIND IT SLACKENING. THIS WILL DECREASE THESE WINDS TO
15 KT WITH SEAS JUST UNDER 8 FT. E OF THE FRONT WEAK HIGH PRES
OF 1019 MB CENTERED NEAR 33N123W EXTENDS A RIDGE SSE TO NEAR
11N113W. THE ASSOCIATED PRES GRADIENT IS WEAK AS INDICATED IN
ASCAT PASSES FROM JUST AFTER 04 UTC AND NEAR 0530 UTC THAT
DISPLAYED MOSTLY GENTLE WINDS N OF 11N AND TO THE E OF THE
FRONT. NE-E FRESH WINDS ARE S OF 11N...EXCEPT IN REGIONS OF GAP
WINDS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS AND
ARE CURRENTLY MIXING WITH THE SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES GENERATED
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED GAP WIND REGIONS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
PAPAGAYO. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELLS RELATED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ARE PROPAGATING SEWD OVER AN AREA TO
THE N OF 14N AND W OF ABOUT 122W WITH RESULTANT MAX SEAS IN THE
9-10 FT. SWELL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT.

GAP WINDS...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG N
WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA REACHING TO NEAR 04N BETWEEN 79W-81W. THESE WINDS
WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH SEAS THERE MAXING OUT
TO 8 OR 9 FT.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271005
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND THE GULF WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
16N95W TO 15N95W TO 14N96W. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 11-17 FT
RANGE. EARLIER OBSERVATIONS AS REPORTED EARLY MON EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SHIPS "ZCDI4"..."SLKR"...AND
"ZOAY4" VERIFIED THE GALE WIND CONDITIONS WITH SHIP "ZCDI4" NEAR
16N95W REPORTING 42 KT AT 00 UTC...SHIP "SLKR" NEAR 14N95W
REPORTING 40 KT AT 06 UTC AND SHIP "ZOAY4" NEAR 14N96W REPORTING
36 KT ALSO AT 06 UTC.

A LARGE AREA OF N-NE 20-30 KT WINDS IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM OF
A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 12N98W WITH SEAS OF 10-15 FT. NE
SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS FROM 08N-
14N BETWEEN 94W-101W...AND ALSO S OF 11N BETWEEN 101W-112W. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT. THE
HIGH PRES TIED TO CULPRIT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR THE GALE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO
MINIMAL THRESHOLD WITH MAX SEAS IN THE GULF EXPECTED AT AROUND
13 FT AT THAT TIME.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE
PRESENT NE 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 30 KT BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND TO GALE FORCE OF 30-35 KT BY LATE WED NIGHT
WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 9 TO 12 FT AT THAT TIME. MEAN ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THIS GALE EVENT IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR...BUT SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF ELSEWHERE FROM
09N-13N E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA AND ALSO WITHIN
60 NM OF A LINE FROM 09N88W TO 08N90W WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 02N78W TO 03N84W TO 05N89W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO THE ITCZ CONTINUING
TO 06N102W TO 07N112W TO 07N122W TO 08N130W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 78W-79.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 93W-94.5W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 32N133W SSE TO
23N130W...AND TO NEAR 11N123W. BROAD SCALE RIDGING IS NOTED ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD TO SE MEXICO...AND TO ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE FAR
NW PORTION OF THE AREA HAS STALL ALONG A POSITION FROM 31N135W
TO 23N140W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT W OF THE FRONT IS INDUCING N-
NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT THERE WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-10 FT.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
GRADIENT BEHIND IT SLACKENING. THIS WILL DECREASE THESE WINDS TO
15 KT WITH SEAS JUST UNDER 8 FT. E OF THE FRONT WEAK HIGH PRES
OF 1019 MB CENTERED NEAR 33N123W EXTENDS A RIDGE SSE TO NEAR
11N113W. THE ASSOCIATED PRES GRADIENT IS WEAK AS INDICATED IN
ASCAT PASSES FROM JUST AFTER 04 UTC AND NEAR 0530 UTC THAT
DISPLAYED MOSTLY GENTLE WINDS N OF 11N AND TO THE E OF THE
FRONT. NE-E FRESH WINDS ARE S OF 11N...EXCEPT IN REGIONS OF GAP
WINDS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS AND
ARE CURRENTLY MIXING WITH THE SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES GENERATED
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED GAP WIND REGIONS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
PAPAGAYO. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELLS RELATED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ARE PROPAGATING SEWD OVER AN AREA TO
THE N OF 14N AND W OF ABOUT 122W WITH RESULTANT MAX SEAS IN THE
9-10 FT. SWELL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT.

GAP WINDS...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG N
WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA REACHING TO NEAR 04N BETWEEN 79W-81W. THESE WINDS
WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH SEAS THERE MAXING OUT
TO 8 OR 9 FT.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271005
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND THE GULF WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
16N95W TO 15N95W TO 14N96W. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 11-17 FT
RANGE. EARLIER OBSERVATIONS AS REPORTED EARLY MON EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SHIPS "ZCDI4"..."SLKR"...AND
"ZOAY4" VERIFIED THE GALE WIND CONDITIONS WITH SHIP "ZCDI4" NEAR
16N95W REPORTING 42 KT AT 00 UTC...SHIP "SLKR" NEAR 14N95W
REPORTING 40 KT AT 06 UTC AND SHIP "ZOAY4" NEAR 14N96W REPORTING
36 KT ALSO AT 06 UTC.

A LARGE AREA OF N-NE 20-30 KT WINDS IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM OF
A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 12N98W WITH SEAS OF 10-15 FT. NE
SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS FROM 08N-
14N BETWEEN 94W-101W...AND ALSO S OF 11N BETWEEN 101W-112W. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT. THE
HIGH PRES TIED TO CULPRIT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR THE GALE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO
MINIMAL THRESHOLD WITH MAX SEAS IN THE GULF EXPECTED AT AROUND
13 FT AT THAT TIME.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE
PRESENT NE 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 30 KT BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND TO GALE FORCE OF 30-35 KT BY LATE WED NIGHT
WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 9 TO 12 FT AT THAT TIME. MEAN ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THIS GALE EVENT IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR...BUT SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF ELSEWHERE FROM
09N-13N E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA AND ALSO WITHIN
60 NM OF A LINE FROM 09N88W TO 08N90W WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 02N78W TO 03N84W TO 05N89W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO THE ITCZ CONTINUING
TO 06N102W TO 07N112W TO 07N122W TO 08N130W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 78W-79.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 93W-94.5W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 32N133W SSE TO
23N130W...AND TO NEAR 11N123W. BROAD SCALE RIDGING IS NOTED ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD TO SE MEXICO...AND TO ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE FAR
NW PORTION OF THE AREA HAS STALL ALONG A POSITION FROM 31N135W
TO 23N140W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT W OF THE FRONT IS INDUCING N-
NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT THERE WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-10 FT.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
GRADIENT BEHIND IT SLACKENING. THIS WILL DECREASE THESE WINDS TO
15 KT WITH SEAS JUST UNDER 8 FT. E OF THE FRONT WEAK HIGH PRES
OF 1019 MB CENTERED NEAR 33N123W EXTENDS A RIDGE SSE TO NEAR
11N113W. THE ASSOCIATED PRES GRADIENT IS WEAK AS INDICATED IN
ASCAT PASSES FROM JUST AFTER 04 UTC AND NEAR 0530 UTC THAT
DISPLAYED MOSTLY GENTLE WINDS N OF 11N AND TO THE E OF THE
FRONT. NE-E FRESH WINDS ARE S OF 11N...EXCEPT IN REGIONS OF GAP
WINDS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS AND
ARE CURRENTLY MIXING WITH THE SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES GENERATED
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED GAP WIND REGIONS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
PAPAGAYO. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELLS RELATED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ARE PROPAGATING SEWD OVER AN AREA TO
THE N OF 14N AND W OF ABOUT 122W WITH RESULTANT MAX SEAS IN THE
9-10 FT. SWELL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT.

GAP WINDS...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG N
WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA REACHING TO NEAR 04N BETWEEN 79W-81W. THESE WINDS
WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH SEAS THERE MAXING OUT
TO 8 OR 9 FT.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271005
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND THE GULF WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
16N95W TO 15N95W TO 14N96W. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 11-17 FT
RANGE. EARLIER OBSERVATIONS AS REPORTED EARLY MON EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SHIPS "ZCDI4"..."SLKR"...AND
"ZOAY4" VERIFIED THE GALE WIND CONDITIONS WITH SHIP "ZCDI4" NEAR
16N95W REPORTING 42 KT AT 00 UTC...SHIP "SLKR" NEAR 14N95W
REPORTING 40 KT AT 06 UTC AND SHIP "ZOAY4" NEAR 14N96W REPORTING
36 KT ALSO AT 06 UTC.

A LARGE AREA OF N-NE 20-30 KT WINDS IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM OF
A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 12N98W WITH SEAS OF 10-15 FT. NE
SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS FROM 08N-
14N BETWEEN 94W-101W...AND ALSO S OF 11N BETWEEN 101W-112W. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT. THE
HIGH PRES TIED TO CULPRIT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR THE GALE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO
MINIMAL THRESHOLD WITH MAX SEAS IN THE GULF EXPECTED AT AROUND
13 FT AT THAT TIME.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE
PRESENT NE 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 30 KT BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND TO GALE FORCE OF 30-35 KT BY LATE WED NIGHT
WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 9 TO 12 FT AT THAT TIME. MEAN ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THIS GALE EVENT IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR...BUT SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF ELSEWHERE FROM
09N-13N E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA AND ALSO WITHIN
60 NM OF A LINE FROM 09N88W TO 08N90W WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 02N78W TO 03N84W TO 05N89W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO THE ITCZ CONTINUING
TO 06N102W TO 07N112W TO 07N122W TO 08N130W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 78W-79.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 93W-94.5W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 32N133W SSE TO
23N130W...AND TO NEAR 11N123W. BROAD SCALE RIDGING IS NOTED ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD TO SE MEXICO...AND TO ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE FAR
NW PORTION OF THE AREA HAS STALL ALONG A POSITION FROM 31N135W
TO 23N140W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT W OF THE FRONT IS INDUCING N-
NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT THERE WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-10 FT.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
GRADIENT BEHIND IT SLACKENING. THIS WILL DECREASE THESE WINDS TO
15 KT WITH SEAS JUST UNDER 8 FT. E OF THE FRONT WEAK HIGH PRES
OF 1019 MB CENTERED NEAR 33N123W EXTENDS A RIDGE SSE TO NEAR
11N113W. THE ASSOCIATED PRES GRADIENT IS WEAK AS INDICATED IN
ASCAT PASSES FROM JUST AFTER 04 UTC AND NEAR 0530 UTC THAT
DISPLAYED MOSTLY GENTLE WINDS N OF 11N AND TO THE E OF THE
FRONT. NE-E FRESH WINDS ARE S OF 11N...EXCEPT IN REGIONS OF GAP
WINDS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS AND
ARE CURRENTLY MIXING WITH THE SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES GENERATED
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED GAP WIND REGIONS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
PAPAGAYO. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELLS RELATED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ARE PROPAGATING SEWD OVER AN AREA TO
THE N OF 14N AND W OF ABOUT 122W WITH RESULTANT MAX SEAS IN THE
9-10 FT. SWELL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT.

GAP WINDS...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG N
WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA REACHING TO NEAR 04N BETWEEN 79W-81W. THESE WINDS
WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH SEAS THERE MAXING OUT
TO 8 OR 9 FT.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271004
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND THE GULF WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
16N95W TO 15N95W TO 14N96W. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 11-17 FT
RANGE. EARLIER OBSERVATIONS AS REPORTED EARLY MON EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SHIPS "ZCDI4"..."SLKR"...AND
"ZOAY4" VERIFIED THE GALE WIND CONDITIONS WITH SHIP "ZCDI4" NEAR
16N95W REPORTING 42 KT AT 00 UTC...SHIP "SLKR" NEAR 14N95W
REPORTING 40 KT AT 06 UTC AND SHIP "ZOAY4" NEAR 14N96W REPORTING
36 KT ALSO AT 06 UTC.

A LARGE AREA OF N-NE 20-30 KT WINDS IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM OF
A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 12N98W WITH SEAS OF 10-15 FT. NE
SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS FROM 08N-
14N BETWEEN 94W-101W...AND ALSO S OF 11N BETWEEN 101W-112W. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT. THE
HIGH PRES TIED TO CULPRIT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR THE GALE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO
MINIMAL THRESHOLD WITH MAX SEAS IN THE GULF EXPECTED AT AROUND
13 FT AT THAT TIME.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE
PRESENT NE 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 30 KT BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND TO GALE FORCE OF 30-35 KT BY LATE WED NIGHT
WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 9 TO 12 FT AT THAT TIME. MEAN ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THIS GALE EVENT IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR...BUT SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF ELSEWHERE FROM
09N-13N E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA AND ALSO WITHIN
60 NM OF A LINE FROM 09N88W TO 08N90W WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 02N78W TO 03N84W TO 05N89W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO THE ITCZ CONTINUING
TO 06N102W TO 07N112W TO 07N122W TO 08N130W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 78W-79.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 93W-94.5W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 32N133W SSE TO
23N130W...AND TO NEAR 11N123W. BROAD SCALE RIDGING IS NOTED ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD TO SE MEXICO...AND TO ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE FAR
NW PORTION OF THE AREA HAS STALL ALONG A POSITION FROM 31N135W
TO 23N140W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT W OF THE FRONT IS INDUCING N-
NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT THERE WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-10 FT.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
GRADIENT BEHIND IT SLACKENING. THIS WILL DECREASE THESE WINDS TO
15 KT WITH SEAS JUST UNDER 8 FT. E OF THE FRONT WEAK HIGH PRES
OF 1019 MB CENTERED NEAR 33N123W EXTENDS A RIDGE SSE TO NEAR
11N113W. THE ASSOCIATED PRES GRADIENT IS WEAK AS INDICATED IN
ASCAT PASSED FROM JUST PASSED 04 UTC AND NEAR 0530 UTC THAT
DISPLAYED MOSTLY GENTLE  WINDS N OF 11N AND TO THE E OF THE
FRONT. NE-E FRESH WINDS ARE S OF 11N...EXCEPT IN REGIONS OF GAP
WINDS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS AND
ARE CURRENTLY MIXING WITH THE SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES GENERATED
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED GAP WIND REGIONS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
PAPAGAYO. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELLS RELATED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ARE PROPAGATING SEWD OVER AN AREA TO
THE N OF 14N AND W OF ABOUT 122W WITH RESULTANT MAX SEAS IN THE
9-10 FT. SWELL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT.

GAP WINDS...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG N
WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA REACHING TO NEAR 04N BETWEEN 79W-81W. THESE WINDS
WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH SEAS THERE MAXING OUT
TO 8 OR 9 FT.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271004
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND THE GULF WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
16N95W TO 15N95W TO 14N96W. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 11-17 FT
RANGE. EARLIER OBSERVATIONS AS REPORTED EARLY MON EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SHIPS "ZCDI4"..."SLKR"...AND
"ZOAY4" VERIFIED THE GALE WIND CONDITIONS WITH SHIP "ZCDI4" NEAR
16N95W REPORTING 42 KT AT 00 UTC...SHIP "SLKR" NEAR 14N95W
REPORTING 40 KT AT 06 UTC AND SHIP "ZOAY4" NEAR 14N96W REPORTING
36 KT ALSO AT 06 UTC.

A LARGE AREA OF N-NE 20-30 KT WINDS IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM OF
A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 12N98W WITH SEAS OF 10-15 FT. NE
SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS FROM 08N-
14N BETWEEN 94W-101W...AND ALSO S OF 11N BETWEEN 101W-112W. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT. THE
HIGH PRES TIED TO CULPRIT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR THE GALE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO
MINIMAL THRESHOLD WITH MAX SEAS IN THE GULF EXPECTED AT AROUND
13 FT AT THAT TIME.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE
PRESENT NE 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 30 KT BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND TO GALE FORCE OF 30-35 KT BY LATE WED NIGHT
WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 9 TO 12 FT AT THAT TIME. MEAN ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THIS GALE EVENT IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR...BUT SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF ELSEWHERE FROM
09N-13N E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA AND ALSO WITHIN
60 NM OF A LINE FROM 09N88W TO 08N90W WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 02N78W TO 03N84W TO 05N89W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO THE ITCZ CONTINUING
TO 06N102W TO 07N112W TO 07N122W TO 08N130W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 78W-79.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 93W-94.5W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 32N133W SSE TO
23N130W...AND TO NEAR 11N123W. BROAD SCALE RIDGING IS NOTED ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD TO SE MEXICO...AND TO ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE FAR
NW PORTION OF THE AREA HAS STALL ALONG A POSITION FROM 31N135W
TO 23N140W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT W OF THE FRONT IS INDUCING N-
NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT THERE WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-10 FT.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
GRADIENT BEHIND IT SLACKENING. THIS WILL DECREASE THESE WINDS TO
15 KT WITH SEAS JUST UNDER 8 FT. E OF THE FRONT WEAK HIGH PRES
OF 1019 MB CENTERED NEAR 33N123W EXTENDS A RIDGE SSE TO NEAR
11N113W. THE ASSOCIATED PRES GRADIENT IS WEAK AS INDICATED IN
ASCAT PASSED FROM JUST PASSED 04 UTC AND NEAR 0530 UTC THAT
DISPLAYED MOSTLY GENTLE  WINDS N OF 11N AND TO THE E OF THE
FRONT. NE-E FRESH WINDS ARE S OF 11N...EXCEPT IN REGIONS OF GAP
WINDS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS AND
ARE CURRENTLY MIXING WITH THE SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES GENERATED
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED GAP WIND REGIONS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
PAPAGAYO. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELLS RELATED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ARE PROPAGATING SEWD OVER AN AREA TO
THE N OF 14N AND W OF ABOUT 122W WITH RESULTANT MAX SEAS IN THE
9-10 FT. SWELL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT.

GAP WINDS...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG N
WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA REACHING TO NEAR 04N BETWEEN 79W-81W. THESE WINDS
WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH SEAS THERE MAXING OUT
TO 8 OR 9 FT.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271004
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND THE GULF WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
16N95W TO 15N95W TO 14N96W. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 11-17 FT
RANGE. EARLIER OBSERVATIONS AS REPORTED EARLY MON EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SHIPS "ZCDI4"..."SLKR"...AND
"ZOAY4" VERIFIED THE GALE WIND CONDITIONS WITH SHIP "ZCDI4" NEAR
16N95W REPORTING 42 KT AT 00 UTC...SHIP "SLKR" NEAR 14N95W
REPORTING 40 KT AT 06 UTC AND SHIP "ZOAY4" NEAR 14N96W REPORTING
36 KT ALSO AT 06 UTC.

A LARGE AREA OF N-NE 20-30 KT WINDS IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM OF
A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 12N98W WITH SEAS OF 10-15 FT. NE
SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS FROM 08N-
14N BETWEEN 94W-101W...AND ALSO S OF 11N BETWEEN 101W-112W. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT. THE
HIGH PRES TIED TO CULPRIT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR THE GALE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO
MINIMAL THRESHOLD WITH MAX SEAS IN THE GULF EXPECTED AT AROUND
13 FT AT THAT TIME.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE
PRESENT NE 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 30 KT BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND TO GALE FORCE OF 30-35 KT BY LATE WED NIGHT
WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 9 TO 12 FT AT THAT TIME. MEAN ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THIS GALE EVENT IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR...BUT SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF ELSEWHERE FROM
09N-13N E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA AND ALSO WITHIN
60 NM OF A LINE FROM 09N88W TO 08N90W WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 02N78W TO 03N84W TO 05N89W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO THE ITCZ CONTINUING
TO 06N102W TO 07N112W TO 07N122W TO 08N130W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 78W-79.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 93W-94.5W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 32N133W SSE TO
23N130W...AND TO NEAR 11N123W. BROAD SCALE RIDGING IS NOTED ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD TO SE MEXICO...AND TO ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE FAR
NW PORTION OF THE AREA HAS STALL ALONG A POSITION FROM 31N135W
TO 23N140W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT W OF THE FRONT IS INDUCING N-
NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT THERE WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-10 FT.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
GRADIENT BEHIND IT SLACKENING. THIS WILL DECREASE THESE WINDS TO
15 KT WITH SEAS JUST UNDER 8 FT. E OF THE FRONT WEAK HIGH PRES
OF 1019 MB CENTERED NEAR 33N123W EXTENDS A RIDGE SSE TO NEAR
11N113W. THE ASSOCIATED PRES GRADIENT IS WEAK AS INDICATED IN
ASCAT PASSED FROM JUST PASSED 04 UTC AND NEAR 0530 UTC THAT
DISPLAYED MOSTLY GENTLE  WINDS N OF 11N AND TO THE E OF THE
FRONT. NE-E FRESH WINDS ARE S OF 11N...EXCEPT IN REGIONS OF GAP
WINDS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS AND
ARE CURRENTLY MIXING WITH THE SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES GENERATED
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED GAP WIND REGIONS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
PAPAGAYO. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELLS RELATED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ARE PROPAGATING SEWD OVER AN AREA TO
THE N OF 14N AND W OF ABOUT 122W WITH RESULTANT MAX SEAS IN THE
9-10 FT. SWELL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT.

GAP WINDS...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG N
WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA REACHING TO NEAR 04N BETWEEN 79W-81W. THESE WINDS
WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH SEAS THERE MAXING OUT
TO 8 OR 9 FT.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271004
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND THE GULF WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
16N95W TO 15N95W TO 14N96W. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 11-17 FT
RANGE. EARLIER OBSERVATIONS AS REPORTED EARLY MON EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SHIPS "ZCDI4"..."SLKR"...AND
"ZOAY4" VERIFIED THE GALE WIND CONDITIONS WITH SHIP "ZCDI4" NEAR
16N95W REPORTING 42 KT AT 00 UTC...SHIP "SLKR" NEAR 14N95W
REPORTING 40 KT AT 06 UTC AND SHIP "ZOAY4" NEAR 14N96W REPORTING
36 KT ALSO AT 06 UTC.

A LARGE AREA OF N-NE 20-30 KT WINDS IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM OF
A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 12N98W WITH SEAS OF 10-15 FT. NE
SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS FROM 08N-
14N BETWEEN 94W-101W...AND ALSO S OF 11N BETWEEN 101W-112W. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT. THE
HIGH PRES TIED TO CULPRIT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR THE GALE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO
MINIMAL THRESHOLD WITH MAX SEAS IN THE GULF EXPECTED AT AROUND
13 FT AT THAT TIME.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE
PRESENT NE 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 30 KT BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND TO GALE FORCE OF 30-35 KT BY LATE WED NIGHT
WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 9 TO 12 FT AT THAT TIME. MEAN ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THIS GALE EVENT IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR...BUT SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF ELSEWHERE FROM
09N-13N E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA AND ALSO WITHIN
60 NM OF A LINE FROM 09N88W TO 08N90W WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 02N78W TO 03N84W TO 05N89W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO THE ITCZ CONTINUING
TO 06N102W TO 07N112W TO 07N122W TO 08N130W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 78W-79.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 93W-94.5W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 32N133W SSE TO
23N130W...AND TO NEAR 11N123W. BROAD SCALE RIDGING IS NOTED ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD TO SE MEXICO...AND TO ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE FAR
NW PORTION OF THE AREA HAS STALL ALONG A POSITION FROM 31N135W
TO 23N140W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT W OF THE FRONT IS INDUCING N-
NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT THERE WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-10 FT.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
GRADIENT BEHIND IT SLACKENING. THIS WILL DECREASE THESE WINDS TO
15 KT WITH SEAS JUST UNDER 8 FT. E OF THE FRONT WEAK HIGH PRES
OF 1019 MB CENTERED NEAR 33N123W EXTENDS A RIDGE SSE TO NEAR
11N113W. THE ASSOCIATED PRES GRADIENT IS WEAK AS INDICATED IN
ASCAT PASSED FROM JUST PASSED 04 UTC AND NEAR 0530 UTC THAT
DISPLAYED MOSTLY GENTLE  WINDS N OF 11N AND TO THE E OF THE
FRONT. NE-E FRESH WINDS ARE S OF 11N...EXCEPT IN REGIONS OF GAP
WINDS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS AND
ARE CURRENTLY MIXING WITH THE SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES GENERATED
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED GAP WIND REGIONS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
PAPAGAYO. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELLS RELATED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ARE PROPAGATING SEWD OVER AN AREA TO
THE N OF 14N AND W OF ABOUT 122W WITH RESULTANT MAX SEAS IN THE
9-10 FT. SWELL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT.

GAP WINDS...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG N
WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA REACHING TO NEAR 04N BETWEEN 79W-81W. THESE WINDS
WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH SEAS THERE MAXING OUT
TO 8 OR 9 FT.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXNT20 KNHC 270536
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 28N BETWEEN 67W AND 79W W OF A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N72W TO 23N79W. THIS
GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES E WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY LOCATED E OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT. SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N11W TO 02N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01N34W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N49W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 16W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TO OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR W ATLANTIC THROUGH
CUBA AND THE W CARIBBEAN THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
GULF FROM 22N85W TO 21N93W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE NW...A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH
IS CENTERED NEAR 27N96W. SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE
BASIN...BRINGING MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC TO THE AREA. DESPITE
THIS...THE GULF REMAINS CONVECTION FREE AS THE COOL AND DRY AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT PREVAILS. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD
FROM THE W IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES E THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN WHILE WEAKENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 16N87W TO 21N76W. ISOLATED CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM S OF THE BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC ACROSS CUBA AND THE W CARIBBEAN FROM
22N85W TO 21N93W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITH
THIS BOUNDARY. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH
AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE E
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 77W WITH ISOLATED TRADE WIND
INDUCED SHOWERS. TO THE W OF 77W...A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH
TO DISSIPATE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN WHILE WEAKENING.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS W CUBA. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TO OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF INTO
THE W ATLANTIC FROM 23N80W TO 31N71W. TO THE E...ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 21N76W TO 28N69W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT AND CONTINUES TO 31N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 24N BETWEEN 59W-70W. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA BETWEEN THESE FRONTS AND A
GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FROM 24N46W TO 28N46W. A 1041 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR
41N22W AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE E AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONTS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO MERGE AND
THE NEW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING E WHILE WEAKENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 270536
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 28N BETWEEN 67W AND 79W W OF A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N72W TO 23N79W. THIS
GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES E WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY LOCATED E OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT. SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N11W TO 02N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01N34W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N49W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 16W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TO OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR W ATLANTIC THROUGH
CUBA AND THE W CARIBBEAN THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
GULF FROM 22N85W TO 21N93W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE NW...A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH
IS CENTERED NEAR 27N96W. SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE
BASIN...BRINGING MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC TO THE AREA. DESPITE
THIS...THE GULF REMAINS CONVECTION FREE AS THE COOL AND DRY AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT PREVAILS. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD
FROM THE W IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES E THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN WHILE WEAKENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 16N87W TO 21N76W. ISOLATED CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM S OF THE BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC ACROSS CUBA AND THE W CARIBBEAN FROM
22N85W TO 21N93W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITH
THIS BOUNDARY. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH
AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE E
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 77W WITH ISOLATED TRADE WIND
INDUCED SHOWERS. TO THE W OF 77W...A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH
TO DISSIPATE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN WHILE WEAKENING.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS W CUBA. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TO OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF INTO
THE W ATLANTIC FROM 23N80W TO 31N71W. TO THE E...ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 21N76W TO 28N69W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT AND CONTINUES TO 31N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 24N BETWEEN 59W-70W. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA BETWEEN THESE FRONTS AND A
GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FROM 24N46W TO 28N46W. A 1041 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR
41N22W AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE E AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONTS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO MERGE AND
THE NEW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING E WHILE WEAKENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270333
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...PERSISTENT HIGH PRES ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SE MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS IS
SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO REACH 35-40 KT DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS...THEN WILL SLIGHTLY DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48
HOURS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 10-16 FT IN THE GULF DURING
THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.
NE TO E SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT COMBINED WITH STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER THAT EXTENTS SW TO BEYOND 110W. BY WED
MORNING...SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL COVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM
03N TO 13N BETWEEN 92W AND 120W. THIS GALE WIND EVENT IS
FORECAST TO BE OF LONG DURATION...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO
PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH PRES
RIDGE THERE. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AND
PROBABLY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
WILL EXTEND SW AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF TO 90W-91W. EXPECT
BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 11 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 02N78W TO 03N83W TO 05N88W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N88W TO 06N110W TO 10N130W TO 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN
91W AND 96W...AND FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST
AREA W OF 100W. THE STRONG CUT-OFF LOW HAS MOVED JUST N OF AREA
AND NOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N126W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW TOWARD NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. TO THE W
OF THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH...A NARROW RIDGE IS ALONG 130W N OF
21N...AND IS SLIDING EASTWARD. A RATHER NARROW LONGWAVE WAVE
TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG 136W AND N
13N. OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT E OF ABOUT 100W WITH A RIDGE AXIS
STRETCHING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD TO SE MEXICO...AND TO
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE
AREA AND EXTENDS FROM 30N136W TO A 1013 MB WEAK LOW PRES NEAR
28N137W TO 24N140W. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS W OF THE LOW AND FRONT. EAST OF
THE FRONT...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT PREVAILS AS HIGH PRES LOCATED N
OF AREA DISSIPATES. MAINLY GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE N
WATERS E OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N115W TO
20N116W. A SMALL AREA OF E TO SE WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE IS
OBSERVED FROM 25N TO 27N E OF TROUGH TO 113W WITH SEAS TO AROUND
9 FT. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT...AND
DISSIPATE ON TUE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON TUE
AND DISSIPATE BY WED...THEN A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS
THE N WATERS.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS AND
ARE CURRENTLY MIXING WITH THE SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES GENERATING
IN THE GAP WIND REGIONS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO. ADDITIONAL
PULSES OF NW SWELLS RELATED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ARE
PROPAGATING SEWD TO THE W OF A LINE FROM 30N120W TO 14N130W TO
04N136W. THESE SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN MAX COMBINED SEAS OF UP
TO 11 FT.

GAP WINDS...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS.

FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA
FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA REACHING TO NEAR 05N BETWEEN 79W-81W.
THESE WINDS WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WED WITH SEAS THERE TO 8
OR 9 FT.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270333
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...PERSISTENT HIGH PRES ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SE MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS IS
SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO REACH 35-40 KT DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS...THEN WILL SLIGHTLY DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48
HOURS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 10-16 FT IN THE GULF DURING
THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.
NE TO E SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT COMBINED WITH STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER THAT EXTENTS SW TO BEYOND 110W. BY WED
MORNING...SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL COVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM
03N TO 13N BETWEEN 92W AND 120W. THIS GALE WIND EVENT IS
FORECAST TO BE OF LONG DURATION...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO
PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH PRES
RIDGE THERE. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AND
PROBABLY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
WILL EXTEND SW AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF TO 90W-91W. EXPECT
BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 11 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 02N78W TO 03N83W TO 05N88W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N88W TO 06N110W TO 10N130W TO 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN
91W AND 96W...AND FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST
AREA W OF 100W. THE STRONG CUT-OFF LOW HAS MOVED JUST N OF AREA
AND NOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N126W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW TOWARD NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. TO THE W
OF THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH...A NARROW RIDGE IS ALONG 130W N OF
21N...AND IS SLIDING EASTWARD. A RATHER NARROW LONGWAVE WAVE
TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG 136W AND N
13N. OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT E OF ABOUT 100W WITH A RIDGE AXIS
STRETCHING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD TO SE MEXICO...AND TO
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE
AREA AND EXTENDS FROM 30N136W TO A 1013 MB WEAK LOW PRES NEAR
28N137W TO 24N140W. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS W OF THE LOW AND FRONT. EAST OF
THE FRONT...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT PREVAILS AS HIGH PRES LOCATED N
OF AREA DISSIPATES. MAINLY GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE N
WATERS E OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N115W TO
20N116W. A SMALL AREA OF E TO SE WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE IS
OBSERVED FROM 25N TO 27N E OF TROUGH TO 113W WITH SEAS TO AROUND
9 FT. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT...AND
DISSIPATE ON TUE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON TUE
AND DISSIPATE BY WED...THEN A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS
THE N WATERS.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS AND
ARE CURRENTLY MIXING WITH THE SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES GENERATING
IN THE GAP WIND REGIONS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO. ADDITIONAL
PULSES OF NW SWELLS RELATED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ARE
PROPAGATING SEWD TO THE W OF A LINE FROM 30N120W TO 14N130W TO
04N136W. THESE SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN MAX COMBINED SEAS OF UP
TO 11 FT.

GAP WINDS...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS.

FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA
FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA REACHING TO NEAR 05N BETWEEN 79W-81W.
THESE WINDS WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WED WITH SEAS THERE TO 8
OR 9 FT.

$$
GR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 262337
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 29N W OF A FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE W ATLC TODAY. THIS GALE WARNING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES E WHERE IT WILL
MERGE WITH A FRONT CURRENTLY E OF THE STRONG FRONT. SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W ALONG 5N18W TO 3N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N31W 2N44W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 8W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC SUPPORTING A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W ALONG 23N88W TO 23N96W. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE FRONT. THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND OVER MEXICO TO THE PLAIN STATES ADVECTING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE W GULF AS SEEN ON SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF VOID OF ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE W IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVER SE OUT OF THE GULF TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL RACE SE ACROSS THE E GULF ON TUE PASSING SE OF THE
AREA ON TUE NIGHT WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE MEANDERS OVER THE
W/CENTRAL AND W GULF THROUGH TUE. A SECOND RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
SETTING UP FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND
ON WED NIGHT THEN SHIFT SE TO A POSITION FROM THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND TO THE SW GULF ON THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS CUBA JUST E OF CAMAGUEY ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO
HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM
W OF THE TROUGH. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
OVER COLOMBIA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA AND A SECOND NE TO OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND REACH FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
NICARAGUA LATE TUE THEN STALL FROM HISPANIOLA TO NICARAGUA ON
WED AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ON THU. STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH
THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS
EVENING W OF 70W. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH TUE. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATE TUE WITH APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL
ENTER THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS STARTING ON LATE TUE THROUGH
THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
OVER THE W ATLC AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N75W
ALONG 27N77W THEN ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 31N. A
REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A COLD FRONT IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N54W TO ALONG 31N64W TO 28N70W WHERE THE
FRONT IS AGAIN COLD AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS TO ACROSS CUBA JUST E OF CAMAGUEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT AND WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT S OF 24N. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE ABOVE FRONT IS DOMINATED BY A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH NE OF AZORES.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 31N43W TO 22N44W. THE REMNANT FRONT WILL MEANDER
FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT IN THE FAR W ATLC ON TUE. THIS MERGED FRONT WILL THEN
EXTEND FROM 32N69W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE TUE THEN SLOW
FROM 32N60W TO THE MONA PASSAGE ON WED NIGHT WASHING OUT N OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 262337
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 29N W OF A FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE W ATLC TODAY. THIS GALE WARNING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES E WHERE IT WILL
MERGE WITH A FRONT CURRENTLY E OF THE STRONG FRONT. SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W ALONG 5N18W TO 3N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N31W 2N44W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 8W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC SUPPORTING A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W ALONG 23N88W TO 23N96W. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE FRONT. THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND OVER MEXICO TO THE PLAIN STATES ADVECTING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE W GULF AS SEEN ON SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF VOID OF ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE W IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVER SE OUT OF THE GULF TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL RACE SE ACROSS THE E GULF ON TUE PASSING SE OF THE
AREA ON TUE NIGHT WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE MEANDERS OVER THE
W/CENTRAL AND W GULF THROUGH TUE. A SECOND RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
SETTING UP FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND
ON WED NIGHT THEN SHIFT SE TO A POSITION FROM THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND TO THE SW GULF ON THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS CUBA JUST E OF CAMAGUEY ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO
HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM
W OF THE TROUGH. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
OVER COLOMBIA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA AND A SECOND NE TO OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND REACH FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
NICARAGUA LATE TUE THEN STALL FROM HISPANIOLA TO NICARAGUA ON
WED AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ON THU. STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH
THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS
EVENING W OF 70W. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH TUE. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATE TUE WITH APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL
ENTER THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS STARTING ON LATE TUE THROUGH
THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
OVER THE W ATLC AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N75W
ALONG 27N77W THEN ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 31N. A
REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A COLD FRONT IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N54W TO ALONG 31N64W TO 28N70W WHERE THE
FRONT IS AGAIN COLD AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS TO ACROSS CUBA JUST E OF CAMAGUEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT AND WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT S OF 24N. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE ABOVE FRONT IS DOMINATED BY A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH NE OF AZORES.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 31N43W TO 22N44W. THE REMNANT FRONT WILL MEANDER
FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT IN THE FAR W ATLC ON TUE. THIS MERGED FRONT WILL THEN
EXTEND FROM 32N69W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE TUE THEN SLOW
FROM 32N60W TO THE MONA PASSAGE ON WED NIGHT WASHING OUT N OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262202
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JAN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WHERE WINDS ARE PRESENTLY 35-40 KT AS REINFORCING HIGH PRES
ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 10-16 FT IN
THE GULF AS THESE WIND CONDITIONS PERSIST. SEAS WILL ONLY
SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TUE AND WED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS. THIS GALE WIND EVENT IS
FORECAST TO BE OF LONG DURATION...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.

FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WED AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE
FORCE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH WINDS OF 20-30 KT
EXTENDING SW AND DOWNWIND TO 90W-91W. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS
AROUND 11 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 03N82W TO 05N90W TO
05N95W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N95W TO 06N110W TO 07N128W TO
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 06N
BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR 02N85W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST
AREA W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW HAS MOVED JUST N OF AREA
AND NOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N125W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW TO ESE TOWARD NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. TO
THE W OF THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH...A NARROW RIDGE IS ALONG 130W
N OF 21N...AND IS SLIDING EASTWARD. A RATHER NARROW LONGWAVE
WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG 136W
AND N 13N. OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT E OF ABOUT 100W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD TO SE MEXICO...AND
TO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE
AREA AND EXTENDS FROM 30N136W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 27N138W
TO 23N140W. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS W OF THE LOW AND FRONT. EAST OF THE FRONT...A
VERY WEAK PRES GRADIENT PREVAILS AS HIGH PRES THAT WAS LOCATED N
OF AREA DISSIPATES. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N115W TO
20N116W. A SMALL AREA OF E TO SE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE IS
NOTED FROM 24N TO 26N E OF TROUGH TO 113W WITH SEAS TO AROUND 9
FT. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT...AND
DISSIPATE ON TUE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON TUE
AND DISSIPATE BY WED.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS PROPAGATING SEWD TO THE W OF A LINE
FROM FROM 30N120W TO 15N130W TO 05N140W. THESE SWELLS ARE
RESULTING IN MAX COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 11 FT WITH PERIODS OF 16-
17 SECONDS.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS SEEPING THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA REACH
S TO NEAR 05N AND BETWEEN 79W-81W. THESE WINDS WILL CHANGE
LITTLE THROUGH WED WITH SEAS THERE TO 8 OR 9 FT.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262202
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JAN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WHERE WINDS ARE PRESENTLY 35-40 KT AS REINFORCING HIGH PRES
ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 10-16 FT IN
THE GULF AS THESE WIND CONDITIONS PERSIST. SEAS WILL ONLY
SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TUE AND WED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS. THIS GALE WIND EVENT IS
FORECAST TO BE OF LONG DURATION...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.

FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WED AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE
FORCE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH WINDS OF 20-30 KT
EXTENDING SW AND DOWNWIND TO 90W-91W. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS
AROUND 11 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 03N82W TO 05N90W TO
05N95W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N95W TO 06N110W TO 07N128W TO
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 06N
BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR 02N85W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST
AREA W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW HAS MOVED JUST N OF AREA
AND NOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N125W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW TO ESE TOWARD NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. TO
THE W OF THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH...A NARROW RIDGE IS ALONG 130W
N OF 21N...AND IS SLIDING EASTWARD. A RATHER NARROW LONGWAVE
WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG 136W
AND N 13N. OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT E OF ABOUT 100W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD TO SE MEXICO...AND
TO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE
AREA AND EXTENDS FROM 30N136W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 27N138W
TO 23N140W. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS W OF THE LOW AND FRONT. EAST OF THE FRONT...A
VERY WEAK PRES GRADIENT PREVAILS AS HIGH PRES THAT WAS LOCATED N
OF AREA DISSIPATES. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N115W TO
20N116W. A SMALL AREA OF E TO SE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE IS
NOTED FROM 24N TO 26N E OF TROUGH TO 113W WITH SEAS TO AROUND 9
FT. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT...AND
DISSIPATE ON TUE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON TUE
AND DISSIPATE BY WED.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS PROPAGATING SEWD TO THE W OF A LINE
FROM FROM 30N120W TO 15N130W TO 05N140W. THESE SWELLS ARE
RESULTING IN MAX COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 11 FT WITH PERIODS OF 16-
17 SECONDS.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS SEEPING THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA REACH
S TO NEAR 05N AND BETWEEN 79W-81W. THESE WINDS WILL CHANGE
LITTLE THROUGH WED WITH SEAS THERE TO 8 OR 9 FT.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262202
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JAN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WHERE WINDS ARE PRESENTLY 35-40 KT AS REINFORCING HIGH PRES
ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 10-16 FT IN
THE GULF AS THESE WIND CONDITIONS PERSIST. SEAS WILL ONLY
SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TUE AND WED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS. THIS GALE WIND EVENT IS
FORECAST TO BE OF LONG DURATION...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.

FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WED AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE
FORCE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH WINDS OF 20-30 KT
EXTENDING SW AND DOWNWIND TO 90W-91W. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS
AROUND 11 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 03N82W TO 05N90W TO
05N95W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N95W TO 06N110W TO 07N128W TO
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 06N
BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR 02N85W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST
AREA W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW HAS MOVED JUST N OF AREA
AND NOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N125W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW TO ESE TOWARD NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. TO
THE W OF THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH...A NARROW RIDGE IS ALONG 130W
N OF 21N...AND IS SLIDING EASTWARD. A RATHER NARROW LONGWAVE
WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG 136W
AND N 13N. OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT E OF ABOUT 100W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD TO SE MEXICO...AND
TO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE
AREA AND EXTENDS FROM 30N136W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 27N138W
TO 23N140W. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS W OF THE LOW AND FRONT. EAST OF THE FRONT...A
VERY WEAK PRES GRADIENT PREVAILS AS HIGH PRES THAT WAS LOCATED N
OF AREA DISSIPATES. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N115W TO
20N116W. A SMALL AREA OF E TO SE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE IS
NOTED FROM 24N TO 26N E OF TROUGH TO 113W WITH SEAS TO AROUND 9
FT. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT...AND
DISSIPATE ON TUE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON TUE
AND DISSIPATE BY WED.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS PROPAGATING SEWD TO THE W OF A LINE
FROM FROM 30N120W TO 15N130W TO 05N140W. THESE SWELLS ARE
RESULTING IN MAX COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 11 FT WITH PERIODS OF 16-
17 SECONDS.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS SEEPING THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA REACH
S TO NEAR 05N AND BETWEEN 79W-81W. THESE WINDS WILL CHANGE
LITTLE THROUGH WED WITH SEAS THERE TO 8 OR 9 FT.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262202
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JAN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WHERE WINDS ARE PRESENTLY 35-40 KT AS REINFORCING HIGH PRES
ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 10-16 FT IN
THE GULF AS THESE WIND CONDITIONS PERSIST. SEAS WILL ONLY
SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TUE AND WED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS. THIS GALE WIND EVENT IS
FORECAST TO BE OF LONG DURATION...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.

FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WED AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE
FORCE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH WINDS OF 20-30 KT
EXTENDING SW AND DOWNWIND TO 90W-91W. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS
AROUND 11 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 03N82W TO 05N90W TO
05N95W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N95W TO 06N110W TO 07N128W TO
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 06N
BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR 02N85W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST
AREA W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW HAS MOVED JUST N OF AREA
AND NOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N125W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW TO ESE TOWARD NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. TO
THE W OF THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH...A NARROW RIDGE IS ALONG 130W
N OF 21N...AND IS SLIDING EASTWARD. A RATHER NARROW LONGWAVE
WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG 136W
AND N 13N. OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT E OF ABOUT 100W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD TO SE MEXICO...AND
TO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE
AREA AND EXTENDS FROM 30N136W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 27N138W
TO 23N140W. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS W OF THE LOW AND FRONT. EAST OF THE FRONT...A
VERY WEAK PRES GRADIENT PREVAILS AS HIGH PRES THAT WAS LOCATED N
OF AREA DISSIPATES. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N115W TO
20N116W. A SMALL AREA OF E TO SE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE IS
NOTED FROM 24N TO 26N E OF TROUGH TO 113W WITH SEAS TO AROUND 9
FT. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT...AND
DISSIPATE ON TUE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON TUE
AND DISSIPATE BY WED.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS PROPAGATING SEWD TO THE W OF A LINE
FROM FROM 30N120W TO 15N130W TO 05N140W. THESE SWELLS ARE
RESULTING IN MAX COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 11 FT WITH PERIODS OF 16-
17 SECONDS.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS SEEPING THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA REACH
S TO NEAR 05N AND BETWEEN 79W-81W. THESE WINDS WILL CHANGE
LITTLE THROUGH WED WITH SEAS THERE TO 8 OR 9 FT.

$$
GR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 261747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING N OF 27N WEST OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INCLUDING JUST OFF THE N FL
COAST. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 13 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. GALE
FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N13W TO 3N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 2N35W TO 3N43W TO THE SOUTH AMERICA COAST NEAR 1N50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N TO 06N BETWEEN 33W AND
42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 06N BETWEEN
09W AND 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO AND TX WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH
IS OVER THE EASTERN US. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO N FL
AND THEN ACROSS THE GULF FROM 29N83W TO 25N97W. SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE NW
OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF. W WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE SE OF
THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC AND S FL NEAR 27N82W AND INTO THE SE GULF TO 24N87W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE GULF AND MOVE OVER THE W
ATLANTIC...CUBA...AND NW CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THE BASIN ON TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE N COAST OF
HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W TO 20N81W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 18N81W TO 14N84W. SHOWERS ARE S OF 16N AND OVER THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH A
SMALL AREA OF WINDS NEAR 25 KT OVER THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. NE
WINDS AROUND 20 KT COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WILL
BE NEAR JAMAICA AND HAITI BY TUESDAY EVENING.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND FROM THE NW
TONIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
IS ABOUT TO EXIT THE US AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TO 31N78W TO CENTRAL FL NEAR 28N80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE TROUGH. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS
THE US COAST...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT.
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE SAME UPPER TROUGH
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N58W TO 29N68W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT TO 25N74W TO THE CENTRAL CUBA COAST
NEAR 22N78W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM N OF
THE FRONT N OF 26N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 26N. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE
TROUGH...FORMERLY A STATIONARY FRONT...EXTENDS FROM 30N42W TO
21N44W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 22N34W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO 21N
BETWEEN 28W AND 37W. THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY
SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH NEAR 40N21W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 261747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING N OF 27N WEST OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INCLUDING JUST OFF THE N FL
COAST. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 13 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. GALE
FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N13W TO 3N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 2N35W TO 3N43W TO THE SOUTH AMERICA COAST NEAR 1N50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N TO 06N BETWEEN 33W AND
42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 06N BETWEEN
09W AND 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO AND TX WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH
IS OVER THE EASTERN US. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO N FL
AND THEN ACROSS THE GULF FROM 29N83W TO 25N97W. SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE NW
OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF. W WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE SE OF
THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC AND S FL NEAR 27N82W AND INTO THE SE GULF TO 24N87W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE GULF AND MOVE OVER THE W
ATLANTIC...CUBA...AND NW CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THE BASIN ON TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE N COAST OF
HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W TO 20N81W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 18N81W TO 14N84W. SHOWERS ARE S OF 16N AND OVER THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH A
SMALL AREA OF WINDS NEAR 25 KT OVER THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. NE
WINDS AROUND 20 KT COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WILL
BE NEAR JAMAICA AND HAITI BY TUESDAY EVENING.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND FROM THE NW
TONIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
IS ABOUT TO EXIT THE US AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TO 31N78W TO CENTRAL FL NEAR 28N80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE TROUGH. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS
THE US COAST...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT.
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE SAME UPPER TROUGH
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N58W TO 29N68W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT TO 25N74W TO THE CENTRAL CUBA COAST
NEAR 22N78W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM N OF
THE FRONT N OF 26N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 26N. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE
TROUGH...FORMERLY A STATIONARY FRONT...EXTENDS FROM 30N42W TO
21N44W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 22N34W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO 21N
BETWEEN 28W AND 37W. THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY
SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH NEAR 40N21W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261516
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JAN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WHERE WINDS ARE PRESENTLY 35-40 KT AS ANOTHER SHOT OF STRONG
HIGH PRES SURGES SEWD ACROSS EASTERN AND SE MEXICO BRINGING MORE
COLD DENSE AIR ACROSS THE GULF. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 11-
17 FT IN THE GULF AS THESE WIND CONDITIONS INCREASE. SEAS WILL
BE FURTHER TO AROUND 19 FT BY LATE TONIGHT...AND ONLY SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TUE AND WED AS LITTLE LET UP IS EXPECTED WITH THE GALE
WINDS. THIS GALE WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE OF LONG
DURATION...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 5N77W TO 4N95W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
4N95W TO 8N125W TO 0N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N AND 70 NM S OF AXIS FROM 88W-91W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA EXTENDS FROM 32N137W TO 15N135W. A 95-125 KT JETSTREAM IS
JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ARE ON THE W SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
AN 85-95 KT JET IS ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM 12N136W TO
15N125W. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH WITH AXIS
FROM 32N130W TO 20N124W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR
31N133W. SWLY FLOW IS ADVECTING MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS MEXICO N OF 25N.

A COLD EXTENDS FROM 32N136W TO 24N140W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALONG AND 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. NLY WINDS 15-20 KT ARE W OF THE
FRONT ALONG WITH 9-11 FT NW SWELL. OTHERWISE 8-10 FT SWELL ARE
NW OF A LINE 32N123W TO 15N130W TO 9N140W. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE WED...AND WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT
OR LESS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THE 8 FT.

ELY 20-25 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AND SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 8-10 FT.

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO LESS FT ACROSS THE GULF OF
PANAMA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED.

$$
DGS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 261133
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLANTIC...

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM 31N76W TO 28N78W TO 25N81W.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 27N W OF FRONT WITH SEAS
RANGING FROM 8 TO 13 FT. A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT BY
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N14W TO 02N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 00N35W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 00N48W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-04N BETWEEN 16W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE GULF
GIVING A W FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF FROM 26N96W TO 30N85W.
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT
WHILE A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS AHEAD OF IT. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS N FLORIDA AND E GULF FROM 26N86W TO 31N82W
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM S OF THIS
BOUNDARY. TO THE SW...A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES THE W
GULF CENTERED NEAR 22N96W. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS
ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING SE
ENHANCING CONVECTION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
ACROSS THE BASIN WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW ATLANTIC ACROSS CUBA NEAR
CAMAGUEY ALONG 21N78W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER VENEZUELA AND EXTENDING
A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE ATLANTIC. SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAILING ACROSS THE
BASIN EXCEPT S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W-75W WHERE A FRESH BREEZE
PREVAILS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MOVING QUICKLY WITH THE
TRADES. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT
TO DISSIPATE. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE W
CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN TONIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ISLAND. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES IN 24 HOURS. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE ATLANTIC.
IT BEGINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO
THE SW ATLANTIC NEAR 22N77W TO 27N64W. AT THIS POINT IT
TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD FRONT AND CONTINUES TO 31N57W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THESE BOUNDARIES. TO THE
E...A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 21N46W
TO 31N41W. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC AS A 1037
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 41N19W EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE E ACROSS THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA COASTS REACHING
THE W ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC. FOR MORE DETAILS REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261003
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JAN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WHERE WINDS ARE PRESENTLY N-NE AT 30-35 KT WITH SEAS IN THE 9-13
FT RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS EXTEND SOUTHWARD TO 14.5N BETWEEN 94W
AND 96W. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY INCREASE TO 35-40
KT AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER SHOT OF STRONG HIGH
PRES SURGES SEWD ACROSS EASTERN AND SE MEXICO BRINGING MORE COLD
DENSE AIR ACROSS THE GULF. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 11-17
FT IN THE GULF AS THESE WIND CONDITIONS INCREASE. SEAS WILL BE
FURTHER TO AROUND 19 FT BY LATE TONIGHT...AND ONLY SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TUE AND WED AS LITTLE LET UP IS EXPECTED WITH THE GALE
WINDS. THIS GALE WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE OF LONG
DURATION...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 05N90W TO 04N98W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THE ITCZ BEGINS...AND EXTENDS TO
07N110W TO 08N121W TO 07N130W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA
W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TO NEAR 28N122W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW TO SE TO SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TO NEAR 10N105W. ABUNDANT
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS FURTHER ENHANCED BY A VERY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM BRANCH THAT EXTENDS FROM 17N117W NEWD TO ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA...NW MEXICO...MOST OF SRN CALIFORNIA AND THE SW
CONUS. A QUITE IMPRESSIVE DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS TO THE SE
OF THE LOW AND JET STREAM BRANCH...AND IS HELPING TO TRIGGER OFF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH TO
NEAR 104W. A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION CONSISTING OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS IS N OF 24N TO THE E AND SE OF THE LOW AND TROUGH
REACHING EASTWARD TO JUST W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. TO
THE W OF THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH...A NARROW RIDGE IS ALONG 131W
N OF 21N...AND IS SLIDING EASTWARD. A RATHER NARROW LONGWAVE WAVE
TROUGH HAS ENTERED THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG
139W AND N 13N. OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT E OF ABOUT 100W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD TO SE MEXICO...AND
TO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONG HIGH PRES THAT WAS LOCATED WELL N OF
THE AREA DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS A COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS STATIONARY HIGH
PRES OF 1019 MB LOCATED NEAR 34N127W EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO COVER
MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
ALONG THE THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS
FROM 15N TO 21N W OF 120W. A WEAK TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW..IS ANALYZED FROM 24N115W TO
20N114W TO 16N115W. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS WAS
CAPTURED MULTIPLE ASCAT PASSES FROM LATE LAST NIGHT WITHIN 120
NM E OF THE TROUGH FROM 21N TO 24N. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 8-10
FT RANGE. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH THE CULPRIT PRES
GRADIENT OF THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS RELAXING.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS PROPAGATING SEWD TO THE W OF A LINE
FROM ABOUT 32N125W TO 17N130W TO 09N140W. THESE SWELLS ARE
RESULTING IN MAX COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 11 FT WITH PERIODS OF 16-
17 SECONDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH A POSITION FROM 30N136W TO
WEAK LOW PRES 25N138W AND TO 21N140W BY LATE TONIGHT...AND
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT BY LATE
TUE NIGHT. A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP W OF THE FRONT
AND LOW TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS THERE
WITH SEAS IN THE 9-10 FT. THESE WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TUE
NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WED AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KT
EARLY ON WED.

FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS SEEPING THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA REACH
S TO NEAR 05N AND BETWEEN 79W-81W. THESE WINDS WILL CHANGE
LITTLE THROUGH WED WITH THERE TO 8 OR 9 FT.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261003
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JAN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WHERE WINDS ARE PRESENTLY N-NE AT 30-35 KT WITH SEAS IN THE 9-13
FT RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS EXTEND SOUTHWARD TO 14.5N BETWEEN 94W
AND 96W. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY INCREASE TO 35-40
KT AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER SHOT OF STRONG HIGH
PRES SURGES SEWD ACROSS EASTERN AND SE MEXICO BRINGING MORE COLD
DENSE AIR ACROSS THE GULF. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 11-17
FT IN THE GULF AS THESE WIND CONDITIONS INCREASE. SEAS WILL BE
FURTHER TO AROUND 19 FT BY LATE TONIGHT...AND ONLY SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TUE AND WED AS LITTLE LET UP IS EXPECTED WITH THE GALE
WINDS. THIS GALE WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE OF LONG
DURATION...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 05N90W TO 04N98W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THE ITCZ BEGINS...AND EXTENDS TO
07N110W TO 08N121W TO 07N130W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA
W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TO NEAR 28N122W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW TO SE TO SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TO NEAR 10N105W. ABUNDANT
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS FURTHER ENHANCED BY A VERY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM BRANCH THAT EXTENDS FROM 17N117W NEWD TO ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA...NW MEXICO...MOST OF SRN CALIFORNIA AND THE SW
CONUS. A QUITE IMPRESSIVE DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS TO THE SE
OF THE LOW AND JET STREAM BRANCH...AND IS HELPING TO TRIGGER OFF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH TO
NEAR 104W. A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION CONSISTING OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS IS N OF 24N TO THE E AND SE OF THE LOW AND TROUGH
REACHING EASTWARD TO JUST W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. TO
THE W OF THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH...A NARROW RIDGE IS ALONG 131W
N OF 21N...AND IS SLIDING EASTWARD. A RATHER NARROW LONGWAVE WAVE
TROUGH HAS ENTERED THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG
139W AND N 13N. OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT E OF ABOUT 100W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD TO SE MEXICO...AND
TO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONG HIGH PRES THAT WAS LOCATED WELL N OF
THE AREA DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS A COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS STATIONARY HIGH
PRES OF 1019 MB LOCATED NEAR 34N127W EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO COVER
MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
ALONG THE THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS
FROM 15N TO 21N W OF 120W. A WEAK TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW..IS ANALYZED FROM 24N115W TO
20N114W TO 16N115W. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS WAS
CAPTURED MULTIPLE ASCAT PASSES FROM LATE LAST NIGHT WITHIN 120
NM E OF THE TROUGH FROM 21N TO 24N. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 8-10
FT RANGE. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH THE CULPRIT PRES
GRADIENT OF THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS RELAXING.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS PROPAGATING SEWD TO THE W OF A LINE
FROM ABOUT 32N125W TO 17N130W TO 09N140W. THESE SWELLS ARE
RESULTING IN MAX COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 11 FT WITH PERIODS OF 16-
17 SECONDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH A POSITION FROM 30N136W TO
WEAK LOW PRES 25N138W AND TO 21N140W BY LATE TONIGHT...AND
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT BY LATE
TUE NIGHT. A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP W OF THE FRONT
AND LOW TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS THERE
WITH SEAS IN THE 9-10 FT. THESE WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TUE
NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WED AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KT
EARLY ON WED.

FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS SEEPING THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA REACH
S TO NEAR 05N AND BETWEEN 79W-81W. THESE WINDS WILL CHANGE
LITTLE THROUGH WED WITH THERE TO 8 OR 9 FT.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261003
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JAN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WHERE WINDS ARE PRESENTLY N-NE AT 30-35 KT WITH SEAS IN THE 9-13
FT RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS EXTEND SOUTHWARD TO 14.5N BETWEEN 94W
AND 96W. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY INCREASE TO 35-40
KT AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER SHOT OF STRONG HIGH
PRES SURGES SEWD ACROSS EASTERN AND SE MEXICO BRINGING MORE COLD
DENSE AIR ACROSS THE GULF. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 11-17
FT IN THE GULF AS THESE WIND CONDITIONS INCREASE. SEAS WILL BE
FURTHER TO AROUND 19 FT BY LATE TONIGHT...AND ONLY SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TUE AND WED AS LITTLE LET UP IS EXPECTED WITH THE GALE
WINDS. THIS GALE WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE OF LONG
DURATION...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 05N90W TO 04N98W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THE ITCZ BEGINS...AND EXTENDS TO
07N110W TO 08N121W TO 07N130W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA
W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TO NEAR 28N122W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW TO SE TO SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TO NEAR 10N105W. ABUNDANT
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS FURTHER ENHANCED BY A VERY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM BRANCH THAT EXTENDS FROM 17N117W NEWD TO ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA...NW MEXICO...MOST OF SRN CALIFORNIA AND THE SW
CONUS. A QUITE IMPRESSIVE DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS TO THE SE
OF THE LOW AND JET STREAM BRANCH...AND IS HELPING TO TRIGGER OFF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH TO
NEAR 104W. A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION CONSISTING OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS IS N OF 24N TO THE E AND SE OF THE LOW AND TROUGH
REACHING EASTWARD TO JUST W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. TO
THE W OF THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH...A NARROW RIDGE IS ALONG 131W
N OF 21N...AND IS SLIDING EASTWARD. A RATHER NARROW LONGWAVE WAVE
TROUGH HAS ENTERED THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG
139W AND N 13N. OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT E OF ABOUT 100W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD TO SE MEXICO...AND
TO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONG HIGH PRES THAT WAS LOCATED WELL N OF
THE AREA DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS A COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS STATIONARY HIGH
PRES OF 1019 MB LOCATED NEAR 34N127W EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO COVER
MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
ALONG THE THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS
FROM 15N TO 21N W OF 120W. A WEAK TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW..IS ANALYZED FROM 24N115W TO
20N114W TO 16N115W. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS WAS
CAPTURED MULTIPLE ASCAT PASSES FROM LATE LAST NIGHT WITHIN 120
NM E OF THE TROUGH FROM 21N TO 24N. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 8-10
FT RANGE. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH THE CULPRIT PRES
GRADIENT OF THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS RELAXING.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS PROPAGATING SEWD TO THE W OF A LINE
FROM ABOUT 32N125W TO 17N130W TO 09N140W. THESE SWELLS ARE
RESULTING IN MAX COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 11 FT WITH PERIODS OF 16-
17 SECONDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH A POSITION FROM 30N136W TO
WEAK LOW PRES 25N138W AND TO 21N140W BY LATE TONIGHT...AND
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT BY LATE
TUE NIGHT. A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP W OF THE FRONT
AND LOW TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS THERE
WITH SEAS IN THE 9-10 FT. THESE WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TUE
NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WED AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KT
EARLY ON WED.

FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS SEEPING THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA REACH
S TO NEAR 05N AND BETWEEN 79W-81W. THESE WINDS WILL CHANGE
LITTLE THROUGH WED WITH THERE TO 8 OR 9 FT.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261003
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JAN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WHERE WINDS ARE PRESENTLY N-NE AT 30-35 KT WITH SEAS IN THE 9-13
FT RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS EXTEND SOUTHWARD TO 14.5N BETWEEN 94W
AND 96W. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY INCREASE TO 35-40
KT AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER SHOT OF STRONG HIGH
PRES SURGES SEWD ACROSS EASTERN AND SE MEXICO BRINGING MORE COLD
DENSE AIR ACROSS THE GULF. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 11-17
FT IN THE GULF AS THESE WIND CONDITIONS INCREASE. SEAS WILL BE
FURTHER TO AROUND 19 FT BY LATE TONIGHT...AND ONLY SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TUE AND WED AS LITTLE LET UP IS EXPECTED WITH THE GALE
WINDS. THIS GALE WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE OF LONG
DURATION...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 05N90W TO 04N98W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THE ITCZ BEGINS...AND EXTENDS TO
07N110W TO 08N121W TO 07N130W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA
W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TO NEAR 28N122W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW TO SE TO SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TO NEAR 10N105W. ABUNDANT
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS FURTHER ENHANCED BY A VERY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM BRANCH THAT EXTENDS FROM 17N117W NEWD TO ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA...NW MEXICO...MOST OF SRN CALIFORNIA AND THE SW
CONUS. A QUITE IMPRESSIVE DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS TO THE SE
OF THE LOW AND JET STREAM BRANCH...AND IS HELPING TO TRIGGER OFF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH TO
NEAR 104W. A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION CONSISTING OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS IS N OF 24N TO THE E AND SE OF THE LOW AND TROUGH
REACHING EASTWARD TO JUST W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. TO
THE W OF THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH...A NARROW RIDGE IS ALONG 131W
N OF 21N...AND IS SLIDING EASTWARD. A RATHER NARROW LONGWAVE WAVE
TROUGH HAS ENTERED THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG
139W AND N 13N. OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT E OF ABOUT 100W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD TO SE MEXICO...AND
TO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONG HIGH PRES THAT WAS LOCATED WELL N OF
THE AREA DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS A COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS STATIONARY HIGH
PRES OF 1019 MB LOCATED NEAR 34N127W EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO COVER
MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
ALONG THE THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS
FROM 15N TO 21N W OF 120W. A WEAK TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW..IS ANALYZED FROM 24N115W TO
20N114W TO 16N115W. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS WAS
CAPTURED MULTIPLE ASCAT PASSES FROM LATE LAST NIGHT WITHIN 120
NM E OF THE TROUGH FROM 21N TO 24N. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 8-10
FT RANGE. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH THE CULPRIT PRES
GRADIENT OF THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS RELAXING.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS PROPAGATING SEWD TO THE W OF A LINE
FROM ABOUT 32N125W TO 17N130W TO 09N140W. THESE SWELLS ARE
RESULTING IN MAX COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 11 FT WITH PERIODS OF 16-
17 SECONDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH A POSITION FROM 30N136W TO
WEAK LOW PRES 25N138W AND TO 21N140W BY LATE TONIGHT...AND
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT BY LATE
TUE NIGHT. A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP W OF THE FRONT
AND LOW TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS THERE
WITH SEAS IN THE 9-10 FT. THESE WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TUE
NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WED AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KT
EARLY ON WED.

FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS SEEPING THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA REACH
S TO NEAR 05N AND BETWEEN 79W-81W. THESE WINDS WILL CHANGE
LITTLE THROUGH WED WITH THERE TO 8 OR 9 FT.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXNT20 KNHC 260538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLANTIC...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT BY MON AFTERNOON WITHIN 180
NM E AND 240 NM E OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECASTED TO MOVE OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST EARLY MONDAY. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N14W TO 03N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 00N35W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 00N50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-04N BETWEEN 18W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE GULF
GIVING A W FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH
DOMINATES THE GULF CENTERED NEAR 24N94W. WITH THIS...FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A
WESTERLY GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
GULF MAINLY N OF 26N WHILE A SLIGHT TO GENTLE FLOW PREVAILS S OF
26N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE N/CENTRAL GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE N GULF BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR
CAMAGUEY ALONG 21N78W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER VENEZUELA AND EXTENDING
A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE ATLANTIC. SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAILING ACROSS THE
BASIN EXCEPT S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W-75W WHERE A FRESH BREEZE
PREVAILS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MOVING QUICKLY WITH THE
TRADES. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT
TO DISSIPATE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE W
CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION BY LATE MONDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ISLAND. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT BY LATE MONDAY AND HENCE ENHANCING CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE ATLANTIC.
IT BEGINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO
THE SW ATLANTIC NEAR 25N69W THERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT
AND CONTINUES TO 31N60W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO
THESE BOUNDARIES. TO THE E...A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
E/CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM 21N46W TO 31N41W. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE
E ATLANTIC AS A 1037 SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 41N19W EXTENDS
SW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE W ATLC FRONT WILL DRIFT W ON MON. A NEW
COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OFF THE GEORGIA COAST ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 260538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLANTIC...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT BY MON AFTERNOON WITHIN 180
NM E AND 240 NM E OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECASTED TO MOVE OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST EARLY MONDAY. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N14W TO 03N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 00N35W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 00N50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-04N BETWEEN 18W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE GULF
GIVING A W FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH
DOMINATES THE GULF CENTERED NEAR 24N94W. WITH THIS...FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A
WESTERLY GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
GULF MAINLY N OF 26N WHILE A SLIGHT TO GENTLE FLOW PREVAILS S OF
26N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE N/CENTRAL GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE N GULF BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR
CAMAGUEY ALONG 21N78W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER VENEZUELA AND EXTENDING
A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE ATLANTIC. SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAILING ACROSS THE
BASIN EXCEPT S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W-75W WHERE A FRESH BREEZE
PREVAILS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MOVING QUICKLY WITH THE
TRADES. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT
TO DISSIPATE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE W
CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION BY LATE MONDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ISLAND. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT BY LATE MONDAY AND HENCE ENHANCING CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE ATLANTIC.
IT BEGINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO
THE SW ATLANTIC NEAR 25N69W THERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT
AND CONTINUES TO 31N60W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO
THESE BOUNDARIES. TO THE E...A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
E/CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM 21N46W TO 31N41W. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE
E ATLANTIC AS A 1037 SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 41N19W EXTENDS
SW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE W ATLC FRONT WILL DRIFT W ON MON. A NEW
COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OFF THE GEORGIA COAST ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 260538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLANTIC...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT BY MON AFTERNOON WITHIN 180
NM E AND 240 NM E OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECASTED TO MOVE OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST EARLY MONDAY. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N14W TO 03N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 00N35W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 00N50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-04N BETWEEN 18W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE GULF
GIVING A W FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH
DOMINATES THE GULF CENTERED NEAR 24N94W. WITH THIS...FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A
WESTERLY GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
GULF MAINLY N OF 26N WHILE A SLIGHT TO GENTLE FLOW PREVAILS S OF
26N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE N/CENTRAL GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE N GULF BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR
CAMAGUEY ALONG 21N78W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER VENEZUELA AND EXTENDING
A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE ATLANTIC. SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAILING ACROSS THE
BASIN EXCEPT S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W-75W WHERE A FRESH BREEZE
PREVAILS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MOVING QUICKLY WITH THE
TRADES. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT
TO DISSIPATE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE W
CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION BY LATE MONDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ISLAND. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT BY LATE MONDAY AND HENCE ENHANCING CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE ATLANTIC.
IT BEGINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO
THE SW ATLANTIC NEAR 25N69W THERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT
AND CONTINUES TO 31N60W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO
THESE BOUNDARIES. TO THE E...A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
E/CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM 21N46W TO 31N41W. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE
E ATLANTIC AS A 1037 SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 41N19W EXTENDS
SW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE W ATLC FRONT WILL DRIFT W ON MON. A NEW
COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OFF THE GEORGIA COAST ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 260538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLANTIC...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT BY MON AFTERNOON WITHIN 180
NM E AND 240 NM E OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECASTED TO MOVE OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST EARLY MONDAY. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N14W TO 03N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 00N35W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 00N50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-04N BETWEEN 18W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE GULF
GIVING A W FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH
DOMINATES THE GULF CENTERED NEAR 24N94W. WITH THIS...FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A
WESTERLY GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
GULF MAINLY N OF 26N WHILE A SLIGHT TO GENTLE FLOW PREVAILS S OF
26N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE N/CENTRAL GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE N GULF BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR
CAMAGUEY ALONG 21N78W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER VENEZUELA AND EXTENDING
A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE ATLANTIC. SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAILING ACROSS THE
BASIN EXCEPT S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W-75W WHERE A FRESH BREEZE
PREVAILS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MOVING QUICKLY WITH THE
TRADES. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT
TO DISSIPATE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE W
CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION BY LATE MONDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ISLAND. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT BY LATE MONDAY AND HENCE ENHANCING CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE ATLANTIC.
IT BEGINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO
THE SW ATLANTIC NEAR 25N69W THERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT
AND CONTINUES TO 31N60W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO
THESE BOUNDARIES. TO THE E...A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
E/CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM 21N46W TO 31N41W. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE
E ATLANTIC AS A 1037 SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 41N19W EXTENDS
SW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE W ATLC FRONT WILL DRIFT W ON MON. A NEW
COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OFF THE GEORGIA COAST ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260329
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JAN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25-35 KT
ACROSS THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 14N. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO QUICKLY INCREASE TO 35-40 OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO MON
MORNING AS REINFORCING HIGH PRES ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO ALLOWS
FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR TO SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BUILD TO AROUND 15-16 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS.
THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
TUE MORNING WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 17-18 FT. THIS IS
FORECAST TO BE A LONG DURATION GALE WIND EVENT LASTING WELL INTO
THE WORK WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 05N95W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
05N95W TO 08N110W TO 09N125W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA
W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW THAT YESTERDAY FORMED JUST W OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA IS MOVING WESTWARD AND NOW IS CENTERED NEAR
28N119W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 12N112W. ABUNDANT
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS FURTHER ENHANCED BY A VERY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM BRANCH THAT EXTENDS NEWD TO ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW
MEXICO. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS TO THE SE OF THE LOW AND
JET STREAM BRANCH AND IS HELPING TO INDUCE SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS. A RIDGE DOMINATES SE MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONG HIGH PRES THAT WAS LOCATED WELL N OF
THE AREA DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS A COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS HIGH PRES OF
1016 MB LOCATED NEAR 34N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO COVER MOST OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ALONG THE
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH RECENT SCATTEROMETER
DATA SHOWING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS FROM 15N TO 21N
W OF 120W. A WEAK TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...IS ANALYZED FROM 24N115W TO 20N114W TO
16N115W. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS IS NOTED FROM
20N TO 24N E OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO 110W. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS PROPAGATING SEWD THROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN WATERS. THESE SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN MAX COMBINED SEAS
OF UP TO 11 FT WITH PERIODS OF 16-17 SECONDS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL REACH A POSITION FROM 30N136W TO 22N140W BY MON EVENING AND
WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH BY TUE EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 11 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS REACHING
MINIMAL GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY EARLY WED MORNING.

FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE GULF OF
PANAMA AND THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND S TO NEAR 04N AND BETWEEN 79W-
81W BY LATE MON NIGHT...AND LIKELY S TO NEAR 03N BETWEEN 79W AND
81W BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8
FT.

THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING TO SUPPORT THESE GAP WIND
EVENTS.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260329
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JAN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25-35 KT
ACROSS THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 14N. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO QUICKLY INCREASE TO 35-40 OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO MON
MORNING AS REINFORCING HIGH PRES ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO ALLOWS
FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR TO SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BUILD TO AROUND 15-16 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS.
THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
TUE MORNING WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 17-18 FT. THIS IS
FORECAST TO BE A LONG DURATION GALE WIND EVENT LASTING WELL INTO
THE WORK WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 05N95W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
05N95W TO 08N110W TO 09N125W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA
W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW THAT YESTERDAY FORMED JUST W OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA IS MOVING WESTWARD AND NOW IS CENTERED NEAR
28N119W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 12N112W. ABUNDANT
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS FURTHER ENHANCED BY A VERY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM BRANCH THAT EXTENDS NEWD TO ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW
MEXICO. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS TO THE SE OF THE LOW AND
JET STREAM BRANCH AND IS HELPING TO INDUCE SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS. A RIDGE DOMINATES SE MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONG HIGH PRES THAT WAS LOCATED WELL N OF
THE AREA DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS A COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS HIGH PRES OF
1016 MB LOCATED NEAR 34N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO COVER MOST OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ALONG THE
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH RECENT SCATTEROMETER
DATA SHOWING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS FROM 15N TO 21N
W OF 120W. A WEAK TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...IS ANALYZED FROM 24N115W TO 20N114W TO
16N115W. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS IS NOTED FROM
20N TO 24N E OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO 110W. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS PROPAGATING SEWD THROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN WATERS. THESE SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN MAX COMBINED SEAS
OF UP TO 11 FT WITH PERIODS OF 16-17 SECONDS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL REACH A POSITION FROM 30N136W TO 22N140W BY MON EVENING AND
WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH BY TUE EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 11 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS REACHING
MINIMAL GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY EARLY WED MORNING.

FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE GULF OF
PANAMA AND THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND S TO NEAR 04N AND BETWEEN 79W-
81W BY LATE MON NIGHT...AND LIKELY S TO NEAR 03N BETWEEN 79W AND
81W BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8
FT.

THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING TO SUPPORT THESE GAP WIND
EVENTS.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260329
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JAN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25-35 KT
ACROSS THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 14N. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO QUICKLY INCREASE TO 35-40 OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO MON
MORNING AS REINFORCING HIGH PRES ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO ALLOWS
FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR TO SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BUILD TO AROUND 15-16 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS.
THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
TUE MORNING WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 17-18 FT. THIS IS
FORECAST TO BE A LONG DURATION GALE WIND EVENT LASTING WELL INTO
THE WORK WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 05N95W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
05N95W TO 08N110W TO 09N125W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA
W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW THAT YESTERDAY FORMED JUST W OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA IS MOVING WESTWARD AND NOW IS CENTERED NEAR
28N119W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 12N112W. ABUNDANT
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS FURTHER ENHANCED BY A VERY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM BRANCH THAT EXTENDS NEWD TO ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW
MEXICO. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS TO THE SE OF THE LOW AND
JET STREAM BRANCH AND IS HELPING TO INDUCE SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS. A RIDGE DOMINATES SE MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONG HIGH PRES THAT WAS LOCATED WELL N OF
THE AREA DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS A COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS HIGH PRES OF
1016 MB LOCATED NEAR 34N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO COVER MOST OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ALONG THE
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH RECENT SCATTEROMETER
DATA SHOWING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS FROM 15N TO 21N
W OF 120W. A WEAK TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...IS ANALYZED FROM 24N115W TO 20N114W TO
16N115W. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS IS NOTED FROM
20N TO 24N E OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO 110W. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS PROPAGATING SEWD THROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN WATERS. THESE SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN MAX COMBINED SEAS
OF UP TO 11 FT WITH PERIODS OF 16-17 SECONDS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL REACH A POSITION FROM 30N136W TO 22N140W BY MON EVENING AND
WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH BY TUE EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 11 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS REACHING
MINIMAL GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY EARLY WED MORNING.

FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE GULF OF
PANAMA AND THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND S TO NEAR 04N AND BETWEEN 79W-
81W BY LATE MON NIGHT...AND LIKELY S TO NEAR 03N BETWEEN 79W AND
81W BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8
FT.

THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING TO SUPPORT THESE GAP WIND
EVENTS.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260329
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JAN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25-35 KT
ACROSS THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 14N. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO QUICKLY INCREASE TO 35-40 OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO MON
MORNING AS REINFORCING HIGH PRES ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO ALLOWS
FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR TO SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BUILD TO AROUND 15-16 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS.
THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
TUE MORNING WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 17-18 FT. THIS IS
FORECAST TO BE A LONG DURATION GALE WIND EVENT LASTING WELL INTO
THE WORK WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 05N95W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
05N95W TO 08N110W TO 09N125W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA
W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW THAT YESTERDAY FORMED JUST W OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA IS MOVING WESTWARD AND NOW IS CENTERED NEAR
28N119W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 12N112W. ABUNDANT
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS FURTHER ENHANCED BY A VERY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM BRANCH THAT EXTENDS NEWD TO ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW
MEXICO. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS TO THE SE OF THE LOW AND
JET STREAM BRANCH AND IS HELPING TO INDUCE SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS. A RIDGE DOMINATES SE MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONG HIGH PRES THAT WAS LOCATED WELL N OF
THE AREA DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS A COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS HIGH PRES OF
1016 MB LOCATED NEAR 34N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO COVER MOST OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ALONG THE
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH RECENT SCATTEROMETER
DATA SHOWING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS FROM 15N TO 21N
W OF 120W. A WEAK TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...IS ANALYZED FROM 24N115W TO 20N114W TO
16N115W. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS IS NOTED FROM
20N TO 24N E OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO 110W. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS PROPAGATING SEWD THROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN WATERS. THESE SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN MAX COMBINED SEAS
OF UP TO 11 FT WITH PERIODS OF 16-17 SECONDS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL REACH A POSITION FROM 30N136W TO 22N140W BY MON EVENING AND
WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH BY TUE EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 11 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS REACHING
MINIMAL GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY EARLY WED MORNING.

FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE GULF OF
PANAMA AND THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND S TO NEAR 04N AND BETWEEN 79W-
81W BY LATE MON NIGHT...AND LIKELY S TO NEAR 03N BETWEEN 79W AND
81W BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8
FT.

THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING TO SUPPORT THESE GAP WIND
EVENTS.

$$
GR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 252345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT BY MON AFTERNOON WITHIN 180
NM E AND240 NM W OF COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECASTED TO MOVE OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST EARLY MON. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 3N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 2N24W 3N30W ACROSS THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA 39W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 32N-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE GULF
AND THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF W FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER FLOW IS
ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF. HOWEVER THE GULF IS
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING A PORTION OF THE GULF. A SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 24N95W
AND A SERIES OF HIGHS INLAND OVER THE PLAIN STATES/E ROCKIES.
THIS SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS E ACROSS THE FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC
AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE W GULF BECOMING ORIENTATED FROM THE NW
GULF TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BLOCKING THE COLD FRONTS TO THE E
GULF THROUGH WED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N/CENTRAL GULF
TONIGHT AND RACE SE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON MON.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE E GULF ON TUE NIGHT.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
NE MEXICO ON WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA
NEAR CAMAGUEY ALONG 18N84W TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER VENEZUELA AND EXTENDING
A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. THIS IS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY MON. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE E THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN MON EVENING REACHING
FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO COSTA RICA EARLY TUE. FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP E OF NICARAGUA ON TUE AND
WED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. STRONG NE TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PULSE OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS
EVENING. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH MON NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TUE WITH APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE CARIBBEAN MON. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS STARTING ON TUE INTO WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N60W AND EXTENDS ALONG
26N67W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 23N74W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY ACROSS CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR CAMAGUEY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO
INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC TO BEYOND 32N62W GIVING THE W ATLC W FLOW
ALOFT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N39W
ALONG 27N40W TO 24N47W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N40W TO
22N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE WHICH THE ABOVE FRONT/TROUGH SPLIT AND IS ANCHORED WELL N
OF THE AZORES. THE W ATLC FRONT WILL DRIFT W ON MON. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E OFF THE GEORGIA COAST EARLY MON REACHING
FROM 32N72W TO NW CUBA MON EVENING AND REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO
WINDWARD PASSAGE EARLY WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252146
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N
TO NE WINDS OF 30-35 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF AS COLD
DENSE AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO
THE GULF. A RECENT ASCAT PASS CLEARLY REVEALED THESE WINDS. THE
GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO JUST BELOW MINIMAL GALE
FORCE BY THIS EVENING...THEN QUICKLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE
SPEEDS IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO MON
MORNING AS REINFORCING HIGH PRES ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO ALLOWS
FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR TO SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF. THIS IS
FORECAST TO BE A LONG DURATION GALE WIND EVENT LASTING WELL INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 06N90W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 06N90W TO 08N114W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA
W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW THAT YESTERDAY FORMED JUST W OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA IS NOW CENTERED NEAR 27N118W...AND MOVING
WESTWARD. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SE TO NEAR 13N108W.
ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING ENE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AXIS FURTHER ENHANCED BY A VERY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL
JET STREAM BRANCH THAT EXTENDS NEWD TO ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND NW MEXICO. THE FLOW PATTERN TO THE SE OF THE LOW AND JET
STREAM BRANCH IS IMPRESSIVELY DIFFLUENT THERE. AN ANTICYCLONE
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA EXTENDS A
RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONG HIGH PRES THAT WAS LOCATED WELL N OF
THE AREA DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. THIS HIGH PRES OF 1018 MB LOCATED
NEAR 32N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO COVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA N OF 20N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPED FROM A
FORMER UPPER LOW IS ANALYZED FROM A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR
20N115W TO 15N120W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE E
OF THE TROUGH MAINLY FROM 15N TO 20W BETWEEN THE TROUGH AXIS AND
110W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ALONG THE
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH RECENT SCATTEROMETER
DATA SHOWING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS FROM 15N TO 21N
W OF 120W.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA IS
PROPAGATING SEWD THROUGH OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. THESE SWELLS
ARE RESULTING IN MAX COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 11 FT WITH PERIODS
OF 16-17 SECONDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...REACH FROM NEAR 30N136W TO 23N140W ON
MON AT 1800 UTC...THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO TUE AS WEAK LOW
PRES FORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR 24N136W BY TUE
MORNING. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRES
BUILDING EASTWARD JUST TO THE W OF 140W WILL BRING FRESH TO
STRONG N-NE WINDS W OF THE LOW AND FRONT N OF 23N BY TUE WITH
SEAS OF AROUND 9 FT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATE ON TUE
ALLOWING FOR THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8
FT IN LINGERING NW SWELLS.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ARE EXPECTED ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
LAST THROUGH TUE EVENING.

FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE GULF OF
PANAMA AND THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND S TO NEAR 04N AND BETWEEN 79W-
81W BY LATE MON NIGHT.

THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST TUE TO SUPPORT THESE GAP WIND EVENTS.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252146
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N
TO NE WINDS OF 30-35 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF AS COLD
DENSE AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO
THE GULF. A RECENT ASCAT PASS CLEARLY REVEALED THESE WINDS. THE
GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO JUST BELOW MINIMAL GALE
FORCE BY THIS EVENING...THEN QUICKLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE
SPEEDS IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO MON
MORNING AS REINFORCING HIGH PRES ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO ALLOWS
FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR TO SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF. THIS IS
FORECAST TO BE A LONG DURATION GALE WIND EVENT LASTING WELL INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 06N90W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 06N90W TO 08N114W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA
W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW THAT YESTERDAY FORMED JUST W OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA IS NOW CENTERED NEAR 27N118W...AND MOVING
WESTWARD. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SE TO NEAR 13N108W.
ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING ENE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AXIS FURTHER ENHANCED BY A VERY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL
JET STREAM BRANCH THAT EXTENDS NEWD TO ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND NW MEXICO. THE FLOW PATTERN TO THE SE OF THE LOW AND JET
STREAM BRANCH IS IMPRESSIVELY DIFFLUENT THERE. AN ANTICYCLONE
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA EXTENDS A
RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONG HIGH PRES THAT WAS LOCATED WELL N OF
THE AREA DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. THIS HIGH PRES OF 1018 MB LOCATED
NEAR 32N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO COVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA N OF 20N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPED FROM A
FORMER UPPER LOW IS ANALYZED FROM A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR
20N115W TO 15N120W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE E
OF THE TROUGH MAINLY FROM 15N TO 20W BETWEEN THE TROUGH AXIS AND
110W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ALONG THE
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH RECENT SCATTEROMETER
DATA SHOWING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS FROM 15N TO 21N
W OF 120W.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA IS
PROPAGATING SEWD THROUGH OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. THESE SWELLS
ARE RESULTING IN MAX COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 11 FT WITH PERIODS
OF 16-17 SECONDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...REACH FROM NEAR 30N136W TO 23N140W ON
MON AT 1800 UTC...THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO TUE AS WEAK LOW
PRES FORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR 24N136W BY TUE
MORNING. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRES
BUILDING EASTWARD JUST TO THE W OF 140W WILL BRING FRESH TO
STRONG N-NE WINDS W OF THE LOW AND FRONT N OF 23N BY TUE WITH
SEAS OF AROUND 9 FT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATE ON TUE
ALLOWING FOR THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8
FT IN LINGERING NW SWELLS.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ARE EXPECTED ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
LAST THROUGH TUE EVENING.

FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE GULF OF
PANAMA AND THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND S TO NEAR 04N AND BETWEEN 79W-
81W BY LATE MON NIGHT.

THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST TUE TO SUPPORT THESE GAP WIND EVENTS.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252146
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N
TO NE WINDS OF 30-35 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF AS COLD
DENSE AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO
THE GULF. A RECENT ASCAT PASS CLEARLY REVEALED THESE WINDS. THE
GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO JUST BELOW MINIMAL GALE
FORCE BY THIS EVENING...THEN QUICKLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE
SPEEDS IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO MON
MORNING AS REINFORCING HIGH PRES ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO ALLOWS
FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR TO SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF. THIS IS
FORECAST TO BE A LONG DURATION GALE WIND EVENT LASTING WELL INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 06N90W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 06N90W TO 08N114W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA
W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW THAT YESTERDAY FORMED JUST W OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA IS NOW CENTERED NEAR 27N118W...AND MOVING
WESTWARD. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SE TO NEAR 13N108W.
ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING ENE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AXIS FURTHER ENHANCED BY A VERY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL
JET STREAM BRANCH THAT EXTENDS NEWD TO ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND NW MEXICO. THE FLOW PATTERN TO THE SE OF THE LOW AND JET
STREAM BRANCH IS IMPRESSIVELY DIFFLUENT THERE. AN ANTICYCLONE
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA EXTENDS A
RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONG HIGH PRES THAT WAS LOCATED WELL N OF
THE AREA DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. THIS HIGH PRES OF 1018 MB LOCATED
NEAR 32N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO COVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA N OF 20N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPED FROM A
FORMER UPPER LOW IS ANALYZED FROM A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR
20N115W TO 15N120W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE E
OF THE TROUGH MAINLY FROM 15N TO 20W BETWEEN THE TROUGH AXIS AND
110W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ALONG THE
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH RECENT SCATTEROMETER
DATA SHOWING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS FROM 15N TO 21N
W OF 120W.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA IS
PROPAGATING SEWD THROUGH OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. THESE SWELLS
ARE RESULTING IN MAX COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 11 FT WITH PERIODS
OF 16-17 SECONDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...REACH FROM NEAR 30N136W TO 23N140W ON
MON AT 1800 UTC...THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO TUE AS WEAK LOW
PRES FORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR 24N136W BY TUE
MORNING. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRES
BUILDING EASTWARD JUST TO THE W OF 140W WILL BRING FRESH TO
STRONG N-NE WINDS W OF THE LOW AND FRONT N OF 23N BY TUE WITH
SEAS OF AROUND 9 FT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATE ON TUE
ALLOWING FOR THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8
FT IN LINGERING NW SWELLS.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ARE EXPECTED ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
LAST THROUGH TUE EVENING.

FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE GULF OF
PANAMA AND THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND S TO NEAR 04N AND BETWEEN 79W-
81W BY LATE MON NIGHT.

THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST TUE TO SUPPORT THESE GAP WIND EVENTS.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252146
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N
TO NE WINDS OF 30-35 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF AS COLD
DENSE AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO
THE GULF. A RECENT ASCAT PASS CLEARLY REVEALED THESE WINDS. THE
GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO JUST BELOW MINIMAL GALE
FORCE BY THIS EVENING...THEN QUICKLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE
SPEEDS IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO MON
MORNING AS REINFORCING HIGH PRES ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO ALLOWS
FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR TO SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF. THIS IS
FORECAST TO BE A LONG DURATION GALE WIND EVENT LASTING WELL INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 06N90W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 06N90W TO 08N114W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA
W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW THAT YESTERDAY FORMED JUST W OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA IS NOW CENTERED NEAR 27N118W...AND MOVING
WESTWARD. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SE TO NEAR 13N108W.
ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING ENE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AXIS FURTHER ENHANCED BY A VERY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL
JET STREAM BRANCH THAT EXTENDS NEWD TO ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND NW MEXICO. THE FLOW PATTERN TO THE SE OF THE LOW AND JET
STREAM BRANCH IS IMPRESSIVELY DIFFLUENT THERE. AN ANTICYCLONE
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA EXTENDS A
RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONG HIGH PRES THAT WAS LOCATED WELL N OF
THE AREA DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. THIS HIGH PRES OF 1018 MB LOCATED
NEAR 32N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO COVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA N OF 20N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPED FROM A
FORMER UPPER LOW IS ANALYZED FROM A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR
20N115W TO 15N120W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE E
OF THE TROUGH MAINLY FROM 15N TO 20W BETWEEN THE TROUGH AXIS AND
110W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ALONG THE
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH RECENT SCATTEROMETER
DATA SHOWING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS FROM 15N TO 21N
W OF 120W.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA IS
PROPAGATING SEWD THROUGH OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. THESE SWELLS
ARE RESULTING IN MAX COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 11 FT WITH PERIODS
OF 16-17 SECONDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...REACH FROM NEAR 30N136W TO 23N140W ON
MON AT 1800 UTC...THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO TUE AS WEAK LOW
PRES FORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR 24N136W BY TUE
MORNING. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRES
BUILDING EASTWARD JUST TO THE W OF 140W WILL BRING FRESH TO
STRONG N-NE WINDS W OF THE LOW AND FRONT N OF 23N BY TUE WITH
SEAS OF AROUND 9 FT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATE ON TUE
ALLOWING FOR THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8
FT IN LINGERING NW SWELLS.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ARE EXPECTED ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
LAST THROUGH TUE EVENING.

FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE GULF OF
PANAMA AND THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND S TO NEAR 04N AND BETWEEN 79W-
81W BY LATE MON NIGHT.

THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST TUE TO SUPPORT THESE GAP WIND EVENTS.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252146
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N
TO NE WINDS OF 30-35 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF AS COLD
DENSE AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO
THE GULF. A RECENT ASCAT PASS CLEARLY REVEALED THESE WINDS. THE
GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO JUST BELOW MINIMAL GALE
FORCE BY THIS EVENING...THEN QUICKLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE
SPEEDS IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO MON
MORNING AS REINFORCING HIGH PRES ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO ALLOWS
FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR TO SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF. THIS IS
FORECAST TO BE A LONG DURATION GALE WIND EVENT LASTING WELL INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 06N90W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 06N90W TO 08N114W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA
W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW THAT YESTERDAY FORMED JUST W OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA IS NOW CENTERED NEAR 27N118W...AND MOVING
WESTWARD. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SE TO NEAR 13N108W.
ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING ENE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AXIS FURTHER ENHANCED BY A VERY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL
JET STREAM BRANCH THAT EXTENDS NEWD TO ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND NW MEXICO. THE FLOW PATTERN TO THE SE OF THE LOW AND JET
STREAM BRANCH IS IMPRESSIVELY DIFFLUENT THERE. AN ANTICYCLONE
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA EXTENDS A
RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONG HIGH PRES THAT WAS LOCATED WELL N OF
THE AREA DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. THIS HIGH PRES OF 1018 MB LOCATED
NEAR 32N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO COVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA N OF 20N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPED FROM A
FORMER UPPER LOW IS ANALYZED FROM A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR
20N115W TO 15N120W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE E
OF THE TROUGH MAINLY FROM 15N TO 20W BETWEEN THE TROUGH AXIS AND
110W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ALONG THE
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH RECENT SCATTEROMETER
DATA SHOWING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS FROM 15N TO 21N
W OF 120W.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA IS
PROPAGATING SEWD THROUGH OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. THESE SWELLS
ARE RESULTING IN MAX COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 11 FT WITH PERIODS
OF 16-17 SECONDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...REACH FROM NEAR 30N136W TO 23N140W ON
MON AT 1800 UTC...THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO TUE AS WEAK LOW
PRES FORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR 24N136W BY TUE
MORNING. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRES
BUILDING EASTWARD JUST TO THE W OF 140W WILL BRING FRESH TO
STRONG N-NE WINDS W OF THE LOW AND FRONT N OF 23N BY TUE WITH
SEAS OF AROUND 9 FT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATE ON TUE
ALLOWING FOR THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8
FT IN LINGERING NW SWELLS.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ARE EXPECTED ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
LAST THROUGH TUE EVENING.

FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE GULF OF
PANAMA AND THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND S TO NEAR 04N AND BETWEEN 79W-
81W BY LATE MON NIGHT.

THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST TUE TO SUPPORT THESE GAP WIND EVENTS.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252146
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N
TO NE WINDS OF 30-35 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF AS COLD
DENSE AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO
THE GULF. A RECENT ASCAT PASS CLEARLY REVEALED THESE WINDS. THE
GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO JUST BELOW MINIMAL GALE
FORCE BY THIS EVENING...THEN QUICKLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE
SPEEDS IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO MON
MORNING AS REINFORCING HIGH PRES ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO ALLOWS
FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR TO SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF. THIS IS
FORECAST TO BE A LONG DURATION GALE WIND EVENT LASTING WELL INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 06N90W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 06N90W TO 08N114W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA
W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW THAT YESTERDAY FORMED JUST W OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA IS NOW CENTERED NEAR 27N118W...AND MOVING
WESTWARD. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SE TO NEAR 13N108W.
ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING ENE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AXIS FURTHER ENHANCED BY A VERY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL
JET STREAM BRANCH THAT EXTENDS NEWD TO ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND NW MEXICO. THE FLOW PATTERN TO THE SE OF THE LOW AND JET
STREAM BRANCH IS IMPRESSIVELY DIFFLUENT THERE. AN ANTICYCLONE
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA EXTENDS A
RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONG HIGH PRES THAT WAS LOCATED WELL N OF
THE AREA DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. THIS HIGH PRES OF 1018 MB LOCATED
NEAR 32N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO COVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA N OF 20N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPED FROM A
FORMER UPPER LOW IS ANALYZED FROM A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR
20N115W TO 15N120W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE E
OF THE TROUGH MAINLY FROM 15N TO 20W BETWEEN THE TROUGH AXIS AND
110W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ALONG THE
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH RECENT SCATTEROMETER
DATA SHOWING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS FROM 15N TO 21N
W OF 120W.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA IS
PROPAGATING SEWD THROUGH OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. THESE SWELLS
ARE RESULTING IN MAX COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 11 FT WITH PERIODS
OF 16-17 SECONDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...REACH FROM NEAR 30N136W TO 23N140W ON
MON AT 1800 UTC...THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO TUE AS WEAK LOW
PRES FORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR 24N136W BY TUE
MORNING. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRES
BUILDING EASTWARD JUST TO THE W OF 140W WILL BRING FRESH TO
STRONG N-NE WINDS W OF THE LOW AND FRONT N OF 23N BY TUE WITH
SEAS OF AROUND 9 FT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATE ON TUE
ALLOWING FOR THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8
FT IN LINGERING NW SWELLS.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ARE EXPECTED ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
LAST THROUGH TUE EVENING.

FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE GULF OF
PANAMA AND THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND S TO NEAR 04N AND BETWEEN 79W-
81W BY LATE MON NIGHT.

THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST TUE TO SUPPORT THESE GAP WIND EVENTS.

$$
GR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 251737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE OFF THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST ON
MON EVENING FROM 31N76W TO 28N77W TO 26N80W. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE FORECAST N OF 28N WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT...AND N OF 28N W
OF FRONT TO 80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N12W TO 3N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
2N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N45W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 21W-36W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 45W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
24N92W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF
GOING AROUND THE HIGH. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF...WHILE BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THE GULF IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA. 20-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE N OF FRONT.
ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO BE FROM THE NW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ENHANCING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N78W
TO 20N82W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS
NEAR 16N87W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS AT 19N82W TO CENTRAL HONDURAS AT 15N86W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS. 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF FRONT. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SMALL AREAS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...OVER HISPANIOLA...AND S OF
HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 68W-71W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A
RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS ALONG 73W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO PERSIST OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG
WITH DRY AIR WILL HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N63W TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM W OF FRONT. A GALE RECENTLY ENDED E OF FRONT N OF
29N. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM 32N38W TO 27N40W TO 24N46W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 25N41W TO 22N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF
FRONT FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 38W-41W. A 1037 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 42N17W. SURFACE RIDGING IS N OF 25N E
OF 35W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N39W ENHANCING
CONVECTION. EXPECT IN 30 HOURS FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO BE OVER
THE W ATLANTIC WITH GALE FORCE WINDS. SEE ABOVE. ALSO EXPECT THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE OTHER TWO COLD FRONTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 251737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE OFF THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST ON
MON EVENING FROM 31N76W TO 28N77W TO 26N80W. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE FORECAST N OF 28N WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT...AND N OF 28N W
OF FRONT TO 80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N12W TO 3N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
2N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N45W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 21W-36W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 45W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
24N92W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF
GOING AROUND THE HIGH. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF...WHILE BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THE GULF IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA. 20-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE N OF FRONT.
ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO BE FROM THE NW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ENHANCING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N78W
TO 20N82W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS
NEAR 16N87W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS AT 19N82W TO CENTRAL HONDURAS AT 15N86W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS. 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF FRONT. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SMALL AREAS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...OVER HISPANIOLA...AND S OF
HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 68W-71W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A
RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS ALONG 73W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO PERSIST OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG
WITH DRY AIR WILL HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N63W TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM W OF FRONT. A GALE RECENTLY ENDED E OF FRONT N OF
29N. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM 32N38W TO 27N40W TO 24N46W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 25N41W TO 22N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF
FRONT FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 38W-41W. A 1037 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 42N17W. SURFACE RIDGING IS N OF 25N E
OF 35W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N39W ENHANCING
CONVECTION. EXPECT IN 30 HOURS FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO BE OVER
THE W ATLANTIC WITH GALE FORCE WINDS. SEE ABOVE. ALSO EXPECT THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE OTHER TWO COLD FRONTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 251737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE OFF THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST ON
MON EVENING FROM 31N76W TO 28N77W TO 26N80W. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE FORECAST N OF 28N WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT...AND N OF 28N W
OF FRONT TO 80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N12W TO 3N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
2N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N45W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 21W-36W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 45W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
24N92W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF
GOING AROUND THE HIGH. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF...WHILE BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THE GULF IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA. 20-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE N OF FRONT.
ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO BE FROM THE NW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ENHANCING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N78W
TO 20N82W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS
NEAR 16N87W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS AT 19N82W TO CENTRAL HONDURAS AT 15N86W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS. 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF FRONT. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SMALL AREAS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...OVER HISPANIOLA...AND S OF
HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 68W-71W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A
RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS ALONG 73W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO PERSIST OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG
WITH DRY AIR WILL HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N63W TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM W OF FRONT. A GALE RECENTLY ENDED E OF FRONT N OF
29N. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM 32N38W TO 27N40W TO 24N46W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 25N41W TO 22N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF
FRONT FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 38W-41W. A 1037 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 42N17W. SURFACE RIDGING IS N OF 25N E
OF 35W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N39W ENHANCING
CONVECTION. EXPECT IN 30 HOURS FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO BE OVER
THE W ATLANTIC WITH GALE FORCE WINDS. SEE ABOVE. ALSO EXPECT THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE OTHER TWO COLD FRONTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 251737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE OFF THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST ON
MON EVENING FROM 31N76W TO 28N77W TO 26N80W. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE FORECAST N OF 28N WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT...AND N OF 28N W
OF FRONT TO 80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N12W TO 3N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
2N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N45W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 21W-36W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 45W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
24N92W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF
GOING AROUND THE HIGH. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF...WHILE BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THE GULF IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA. 20-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE N OF FRONT.
ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO BE FROM THE NW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ENHANCING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N78W
TO 20N82W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS
NEAR 16N87W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS AT 19N82W TO CENTRAL HONDURAS AT 15N86W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS. 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF FRONT. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SMALL AREAS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...OVER HISPANIOLA...AND S OF
HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 68W-71W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A
RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS ALONG 73W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO PERSIST OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG
WITH DRY AIR WILL HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N63W TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM W OF FRONT. A GALE RECENTLY ENDED E OF FRONT N OF
29N. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM 32N38W TO 27N40W TO 24N46W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 25N41W TO 22N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF
FRONT FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 38W-41W. A 1037 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 42N17W. SURFACE RIDGING IS N OF 25N E
OF 35W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N39W ENHANCING
CONVECTION. EXPECT IN 30 HOURS FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO BE OVER
THE W ATLANTIC WITH GALE FORCE WINDS. SEE ABOVE. ALSO EXPECT THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE OTHER TWO COLD FRONTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251520
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N
TO NE WINDS OF 30-40 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF AS COLD
DENSE AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO
THE GULF. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A SMALL POCKET OF COOL UPWELLED WATER NEAR 14N95W.
THE GALE WINDS HAVE GENERATED SEA STATE IN THE RANGE OF 12-17
FT. N-NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 13N97W N TO NE WINDS 20-30 KT WITH
SEAS OF 9-14 FT. THE GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO JUST
BELOW MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY THIS EVENING...THEN QUICKLY INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE SPEEDS IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
INTO MON MORNING AS REINFORCING HIGH PRES ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO
ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR TO SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF.
THIS IS FORECAST TO BE A LONG DURATION GALE WIND EVENT LASTING
WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 06N90W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
06N90W TO 08N115W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 104W AND 111W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA
W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW THAT RECENTLY FORMED JUST W OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA IS CENTERED NEAR 26N118W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW TO NEAR 12N118W. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS STREAMING ENE
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS FURTHER ENHANCED BY A 90-100 KT
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH THAT EXTENDS FROM 17N115W NEWD TO
ACROSS NW MEXICO.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...8-11 FT IS NW OF A LINE
FROM 32N116W TO 18N112W TO THE EQUATOR AT 128W. THEN A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION ON MON AND EXTEND
FROM 32N134W TO 24N140W. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
STATIONARY FROM 32N134W TO  21N140W TUE. THE AREA OF SWELL WILL
BE FROM N OF 17N W OF 125W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT MON THEN DECREASE TUE AS THE FRONT WEAKENS.

NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT FROM 09N TO 11N E OF 88W...AND TO THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING...AND THEN WILL MATERIALIZE AGAIN AT THE SAME
SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MON MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH TUE EVENING.

$$
DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251520
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N
TO NE WINDS OF 30-40 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF AS COLD
DENSE AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO
THE GULF. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A SMALL POCKET OF COOL UPWELLED WATER NEAR 14N95W.
THE GALE WINDS HAVE GENERATED SEA STATE IN THE RANGE OF 12-17
FT. N-NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 13N97W N TO NE WINDS 20-30 KT WITH
SEAS OF 9-14 FT. THE GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO JUST
BELOW MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY THIS EVENING...THEN QUICKLY INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE SPEEDS IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
INTO MON MORNING AS REINFORCING HIGH PRES ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO
ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR TO SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF.
THIS IS FORECAST TO BE A LONG DURATION GALE WIND EVENT LASTING
WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 06N90W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
06N90W TO 08N115W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 104W AND 111W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA
W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW THAT RECENTLY FORMED JUST W OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA IS CENTERED NEAR 26N118W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW TO NEAR 12N118W. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS STREAMING ENE
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS FURTHER ENHANCED BY A 90-100 KT
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH THAT EXTENDS FROM 17N115W NEWD TO
ACROSS NW MEXICO.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...8-11 FT IS NW OF A LINE
FROM 32N116W TO 18N112W TO THE EQUATOR AT 128W. THEN A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION ON MON AND EXTEND
FROM 32N134W TO 24N140W. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
STATIONARY FROM 32N134W TO  21N140W TUE. THE AREA OF SWELL WILL
BE FROM N OF 17N W OF 125W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT MON THEN DECREASE TUE AS THE FRONT WEAKENS.

NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT FROM 09N TO 11N E OF 88W...AND TO THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING...AND THEN WILL MATERIALIZE AGAIN AT THE SAME
SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MON MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH TUE EVENING.

$$
DGS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 251203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N70W TO 29N70W TO 27N73W TO
23N79W. SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET ARE BEING EXPERIENCED NOW IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT
TO 64W. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS OR SO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN TWO OTHER AREAS BEGINNING AT 36
HOURS...WITH A COLD FRONT FROM 31N76W TO 28N77W TO 26N80W. N OF
28N WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT SW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16
FT. N OF 28N W OF FRONT TO 80W W TO NW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS
12 TO 16 FT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 9N14W TO 4N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N20W TO 2N26W AND
2N34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 5N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN
AND NORTHEASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N25W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N30W 18N37W 11N44W TO 8N51W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 180 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM
5N41W 14N29W BEYOND 19N16W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO
A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N97W...INTO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO PLATFORM SITES...KHQI...KVQT...KGHB...KEIR...KGRY...KATP...
AND KIPN.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

VISIBILITIES RANGE FROM 1 MILE TO 2 MILES AND FOG...AT NEW
IBERIA AND LAFAYETTE IN LOUISIANA...1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG AT
THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS...AND 3 MILES OR LESS AND
FOG AT GALLIANO IN LOUISIANA...2 MILES OR LESS IN FOG AT
PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG IN PENSACOLA
FLORIDA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE
AIRPORT WITH A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG. A LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN THE KEY WEST
METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA NEAR
22N78W...TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 22N78W 19N83W 15N84W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND
NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. 700 MB NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 80W WESTWARD.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW
LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N72W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 7N84W
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.
LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREAS FROM SANTO
DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. SOME FOG MAY BE IN SANTIAGO.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...AND A RIDGE FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE
EASTWARD...AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTH-TO-
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD..

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 28N81W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W... ACROSS
CUBA NEAR 22N78W...TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS NEAR
15N85W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 31N TO
35N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 26N TO 31N
BETWEEN 57W AND 69W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N48W 28N54W...TO 19N69W AND THE
EASTERN EXTREME OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO
26N41W TO 22N39W TO 13N40W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 31N40W. THE COLD FRONT IS
DISSIPATING FROM 31N40W TO 24N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 37W AND 42W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 28N30W TO 22N36W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N39W-TO-24N47W COLD
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 251203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N70W TO 29N70W TO 27N73W TO
23N79W. SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET ARE BEING EXPERIENCED NOW IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT
TO 64W. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS OR SO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN TWO OTHER AREAS BEGINNING AT 36
HOURS...WITH A COLD FRONT FROM 31N76W TO 28N77W TO 26N80W. N OF
28N WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT SW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16
FT. N OF 28N W OF FRONT TO 80W W TO NW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS
12 TO 16 FT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 9N14W TO 4N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N20W TO 2N26W AND
2N34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 5N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN
AND NORTHEASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N25W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N30W 18N37W 11N44W TO 8N51W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 180 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM
5N41W 14N29W BEYOND 19N16W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO
A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N97W...INTO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO PLATFORM SITES...KHQI...KVQT...KGHB...KEIR...KGRY...KATP...
AND KIPN.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

VISIBILITIES RANGE FROM 1 MILE TO 2 MILES AND FOG...AT NEW
IBERIA AND LAFAYETTE IN LOUISIANA...1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG AT
THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS...AND 3 MILES OR LESS AND
FOG AT GALLIANO IN LOUISIANA...2 MILES OR LESS IN FOG AT
PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG IN PENSACOLA
FLORIDA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE
AIRPORT WITH A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG. A LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN THE KEY WEST
METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA NEAR
22N78W...TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 22N78W 19N83W 15N84W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND
NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. 700 MB NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 80W WESTWARD.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW
LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N72W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 7N84W
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.
LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREAS FROM SANTO
DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. SOME FOG MAY BE IN SANTIAGO.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...AND A RIDGE FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE
EASTWARD...AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTH-TO-
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD..

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 28N81W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W... ACROSS
CUBA NEAR 22N78W...TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS NEAR
15N85W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 31N TO
35N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 26N TO 31N
BETWEEN 57W AND 69W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N48W 28N54W...TO 19N69W AND THE
EASTERN EXTREME OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO
26N41W TO 22N39W TO 13N40W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 31N40W. THE COLD FRONT IS
DISSIPATING FROM 31N40W TO 24N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 37W AND 42W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 28N30W TO 22N36W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N39W-TO-24N47W COLD
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251002
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N
TO NE WINDS OF 30-40 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF AS COLD
DENSE AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO
THE GULF. MULTIPLE ASCAT DATA FROM LATE LAST NIGHT CLEARLY
REVEALED THESE WINDS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL POCKET OF COOL UPWELLED WATER NEAR
14N95W.  THE GALE WINDS HAVE GENERATED SEA STATE IN THE RANGE OF
12-17 FT. N-NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 13N97W N TO NE WINDS 20-30 KT
WITH SEAS OF 9-14 FT. THE GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO
JUST BELOW MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY THIS EVENING...THEN QUICKLY
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE SPEEDS IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND INTO MON MORNING AS REINFORCING HIGH PRES ACROSS
EASTERN MEXICO ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE GULF. THIS IS FORECAST TO BE A LONG DURATION GALE
WIND EVENT LASTING WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 07N85W TO 07N95W TO
08N105W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N110W TO 06N125W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 78W-
79W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA
W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW THAT RECENTLY FORMED JUST W OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA IS CENTERED NEAR 24N118W...AND MOVING WESTWARD.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SSW TO NEAR 12N126W. ABUNDANT
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING ENE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS FURTHER ENHANCED BY A VERY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM BRANCH THAT EXTENDS FROM 14N120W NEWD TO ACROSS FAR NW
MEXICO. THE FLOW PATTERN TO THE SE OF THE LOW AND JET STREAM
BRANCH IS IMPRESSIVELY DIFFLUENT THERE. AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA EXTENDS A RIDGE
WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONG HIGH PRES THAT WAS LOCATED WELL N OF
THE AREA DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS IS WEAKENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE W. THIS HIGH PRES OF 1022 MB AS OF 06 UTC
THIS MORNING EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO COVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA N OF 20N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPED FROM A
FORMER UPPER LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG 118W FROM 11N TO 19N.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE
TROUGH...AND ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. ASCAT DATA FROM OVERNIGHT SHOWED NE-E WINDS IN THE
MODERATE TO FRESH RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
FROM 15N TO 21N W OF 120W. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH IS ALONG A
POSITION FROM 12N128W TO 08N133W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA IS
PROPAGATING SEWD THROUGH OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. THESE SWELLS
ARE RESULTING IN MAX COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 11 FT WITH PERIODS
OF 16-17 SECONDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...REACH FROM NEAR 30N136W TO 21N140W BY
MON EVENING...THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO TUE AS WEAK LOW PRES
OF 1010 FORMS ON THE FRONT NEAR 28N136W. THE PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRES BUILDING EASTWARD JUST TO THE W OF
140W WILL BRING FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS W OF THE LOW AND
FRONT N OF 25N BY LATE MON NIGHT WITH SEAS OF 9-10 FT. THE PRES
GRADIENT WILL RELAX TUE ALLOWING FOR THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO
15-20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN LINGERING NW SWELLS.

HIGH PRES OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE
EXTREME NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHERE NW-N WINDS ARE
PRESENTLY IN THE FRESH TO STRONG RANGE WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

GAP WINDS...
NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT FROM 09N TO 12N E OF 89W...AND TO THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING...AND THEN WILL MATERIALIZE AGAIN AT THE SAME
SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MON MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH TUE EVENING.

N WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL EXPAND S TO
NEAR 04N AND BETWEEN 79W-81W BY LATE MON NIGHT.

THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST TUE TO SUPPORT THESE GAP WIND EVENTS.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXNT20 KNHC 250605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N75W TO 23N81W. SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 13 FEET TO 16 FEET
ARE BEING EXPERIENCED NOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF
29N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN A SECOND AREA AT 42 HOURS...
WITH A 31N75W 26N80W COLD FRONT. EXPECT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST GALE-
FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 12 FEET TO
THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
GUINEA NEAR 10N13W TO 5N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N19W TO
2N29W AND 3N40W...AND TO BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR ALONG 49W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 3N
BETWEEN 41W AND 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 6N42W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N25W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N30W 18N37W 11N44W TO 8N51W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM
19N17W TO 13N30W TO 6N38W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N96W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO PLATFORM SITES...KGUL...KGBK...KVQT...KGHB...KEIR...KGRY...
AND KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN MARATHON KEY IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS. THE VISIBILITY IS 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG IN THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA NEAR
22N81W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO
NORTHERN COASTAL NICARAGUA NEAR 15N87W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE 22N80W 17N85W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND
NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. 700 MB NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 80W WESTWARD.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW
LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N76W IN COLOMBIA...TO 4N80W BEYOND
4N83W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.
LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREAS FROM SANTO
DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS PUNTA
CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGOA AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...AND A RIDGE FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE
EASTWARD...AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTH-TO-
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD..

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 28N81W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS...TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N81W...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO NORTHERN
COASTAL NICARAGUA NEAR 15N87W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 32N TO 36N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN
65W AND 72W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N51W 26N58W 18N67W NEAR PUERTO
RICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO
26N41W TO 22N39W TO 13N40W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 30N41W. THE COLD FRONT IS
DISSIPATING FROM 30N41W TO 25N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE 30N39W 26N41W 20N45W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 27N33W TO 21N45W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N39W-TO-25N46W COLD
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 250605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N75W TO 23N81W. SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 13 FEET TO 16 FEET
ARE BEING EXPERIENCED NOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF
29N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN A SECOND AREA AT 42 HOURS...
WITH A 31N75W 26N80W COLD FRONT. EXPECT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST GALE-
FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 12 FEET TO
THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
GUINEA NEAR 10N13W TO 5N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N19W TO
2N29W AND 3N40W...AND TO BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR ALONG 49W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 3N
BETWEEN 41W AND 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 6N42W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N25W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N30W 18N37W 11N44W TO 8N51W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM
19N17W TO 13N30W TO 6N38W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N96W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO PLATFORM SITES...KGUL...KGBK...KVQT...KGHB...KEIR...KGRY...
AND KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN MARATHON KEY IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS. THE VISIBILITY IS 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG IN THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA NEAR
22N81W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO
NORTHERN COASTAL NICARAGUA NEAR 15N87W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE 22N80W 17N85W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND
NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. 700 MB NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 80W WESTWARD.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW
LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N76W IN COLOMBIA...TO 4N80W BEYOND
4N83W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.
LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREAS FROM SANTO
DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS PUNTA
CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGOA AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...AND A RIDGE FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE
EASTWARD...AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTH-TO-
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD..

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 28N81W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS...TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N81W...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO NORTHERN
COASTAL NICARAGUA NEAR 15N87W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 32N TO 36N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN
65W AND 72W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N51W 26N58W 18N67W NEAR PUERTO
RICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO
26N41W TO 22N39W TO 13N40W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 30N41W. THE COLD FRONT IS
DISSIPATING FROM 30N41W TO 25N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE 30N39W 26N41W 20N45W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 27N33W TO 21N45W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N39W-TO-25N46W COLD
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 250605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N75W TO 23N81W. SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 13 FEET TO 16 FEET
ARE BEING EXPERIENCED NOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF
29N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN A SECOND AREA AT 42 HOURS...
WITH A 31N75W 26N80W COLD FRONT. EXPECT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST GALE-
FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 12 FEET TO
THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
GUINEA NEAR 10N13W TO 5N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N19W TO
2N29W AND 3N40W...AND TO BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR ALONG 49W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 3N
BETWEEN 41W AND 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 6N42W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N25W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N30W 18N37W 11N44W TO 8N51W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM
19N17W TO 13N30W TO 6N38W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N96W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO PLATFORM SITES...KGUL...KGBK...KVQT...KGHB...KEIR...KGRY...
AND KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN MARATHON KEY IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS. THE VISIBILITY IS 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG IN THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA NEAR
22N81W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO
NORTHERN COASTAL NICARAGUA NEAR 15N87W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE 22N80W 17N85W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND
NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. 700 MB NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 80W WESTWARD.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW
LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N76W IN COLOMBIA...TO 4N80W BEYOND
4N83W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.
LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREAS FROM SANTO
DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS PUNTA
CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGOA AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...AND A RIDGE FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE
EASTWARD...AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTH-TO-
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD..

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 28N81W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS...TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N81W...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO NORTHERN
COASTAL NICARAGUA NEAR 15N87W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 32N TO 36N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN
65W AND 72W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N51W 26N58W 18N67W NEAR PUERTO
RICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO
26N41W TO 22N39W TO 13N40W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 30N41W. THE COLD FRONT IS
DISSIPATING FROM 30N41W TO 25N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE 30N39W 26N41W 20N45W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 27N33W TO 21N45W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N39W-TO-25N46W COLD
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 250605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N75W TO 23N81W. SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 13 FEET TO 16 FEET
ARE BEING EXPERIENCED NOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF
29N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN A SECOND AREA AT 42 HOURS...
WITH A 31N75W 26N80W COLD FRONT. EXPECT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST GALE-
FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 12 FEET TO
THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
GUINEA NEAR 10N13W TO 5N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N19W TO
2N29W AND 3N40W...AND TO BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR ALONG 49W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 3N
BETWEEN 41W AND 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 6N42W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N25W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N30W 18N37W 11N44W TO 8N51W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM
19N17W TO 13N30W TO 6N38W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N96W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO PLATFORM SITES...KGUL...KGBK...KVQT...KGHB...KEIR...KGRY...
AND KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN MARATHON KEY IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS. THE VISIBILITY IS 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG IN THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA NEAR
22N81W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO
NORTHERN COASTAL NICARAGUA NEAR 15N87W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE 22N80W 17N85W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND
NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. 700 MB NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 80W WESTWARD.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW
LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N76W IN COLOMBIA...TO 4N80W BEYOND
4N83W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.
LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREAS FROM SANTO
DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS PUNTA
CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGOA AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...AND A RIDGE FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE
EASTWARD...AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTH-TO-
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD..

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 28N81W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS...TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N81W...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO NORTHERN
COASTAL NICARAGUA NEAR 15N87W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 32N TO 36N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN
65W AND 72W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N51W 26N58W 18N67W NEAR PUERTO
RICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO
26N41W TO 22N39W TO 13N40W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 30N41W. THE COLD FRONT IS
DISSIPATING FROM 30N41W TO 25N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE 30N39W 26N41W 20N45W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 27N33W TO 21N45W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N39W-TO-25N46W COLD
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250334
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N
TO NE WINDS OF 30-40 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD
DENSE AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO
THE GULF. MAX SEAS OF 14-16 FT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WIND
SPEEDS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 35-40 KT LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR OCCURS.
THIS IS FORECAST TO BE A LONG DURATION GALE FORCE GAP WIND
EVENT. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES PERSISTS OVER
THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH MID WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 04N83W TO 07N95W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N95W TO 08N110W TO 07N125W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 04.5N BETWEEN 83W
AND 86W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 107W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA
W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW HAS DEVELOPED JUST W OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND IS CENTERED NEAR 27N117W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW S-SW TO NEAR 13N122W. ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING E-NE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND WESTERN
VENEZUELA EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONG HIGH PRES THAT WAS LOCATED WELL N OF
THE AREA DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS IS WEAKENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH PRES OF 1023 MB EXTENDS A
RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...FORMERLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...EXTENDS FROM 19N137W TO
12N139W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE FROM 15N TO 25N W OF 120W. A NEW TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM
20N116W TO 11N118W AND IS GENERATING SOME SHOWERS AND TSTM
ACTIVITY. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NE OF HAWAII...IS PROPAGATING SE
THROUGH THE WESTERN WATERS. THESE SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN MAX
COMBINED SEAS OF 11-12 FT WITH PERIODS OF 16-18 SECONDS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA AROUND
25/1800 UTC AND EXTEND FROM 30N136W TO 23N140W BY 26/1800 UTC.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 9-11 FT. THE EXTENSIVE SWELL TRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS REACHING THE AREA W OF A
LINE FROM 30N120W TO 15N130W TO 07N135W BY 48 HOURS.

HIGH PRES OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE PRESENTLY FRESH TO STRONG FROM N
OF 29N WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT
TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. AT THAT
TIME...MARINE GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF FONSECA.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE
GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING REACHING 25 KT N OF
05N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W.

THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST TUE TO SUPPORT ALL THESE GAP WIND
EVENTS.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250334
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N
TO NE WINDS OF 30-40 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD
DENSE AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO
THE GULF. MAX SEAS OF 14-16 FT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WIND
SPEEDS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 35-40 KT LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR OCCURS.
THIS IS FORECAST TO BE A LONG DURATION GALE FORCE GAP WIND
EVENT. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES PERSISTS OVER
THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH MID WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 04N83W TO 07N95W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N95W TO 08N110W TO 07N125W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 04.5N BETWEEN 83W
AND 86W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 107W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA
W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW HAS DEVELOPED JUST W OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND IS CENTERED NEAR 27N117W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW S-SW TO NEAR 13N122W. ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING E-NE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND WESTERN
VENEZUELA EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONG HIGH PRES THAT WAS LOCATED WELL N OF
THE AREA DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS IS WEAKENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH PRES OF 1023 MB EXTENDS A
RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...FORMERLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...EXTENDS FROM 19N137W TO
12N139W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE FROM 15N TO 25N W OF 120W. A NEW TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM
20N116W TO 11N118W AND IS GENERATING SOME SHOWERS AND TSTM
ACTIVITY. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NE OF HAWAII...IS PROPAGATING SE
THROUGH THE WESTERN WATERS. THESE SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN MAX
COMBINED SEAS OF 11-12 FT WITH PERIODS OF 16-18 SECONDS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA AROUND
25/1800 UTC AND EXTEND FROM 30N136W TO 23N140W BY 26/1800 UTC.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 9-11 FT. THE EXTENSIVE SWELL TRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS REACHING THE AREA W OF A
LINE FROM 30N120W TO 15N130W TO 07N135W BY 48 HOURS.

HIGH PRES OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE PRESENTLY FRESH TO STRONG FROM N
OF 29N WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT
TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. AT THAT
TIME...MARINE GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF FONSECA.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE
GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING REACHING 25 KT N OF
05N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W.

THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST TUE TO SUPPORT ALL THESE GAP WIND
EVENTS.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250334
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N
TO NE WINDS OF 30-40 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD
DENSE AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO
THE GULF. MAX SEAS OF 14-16 FT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WIND
SPEEDS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 35-40 KT LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR OCCURS.
THIS IS FORECAST TO BE A LONG DURATION GALE FORCE GAP WIND
EVENT. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES PERSISTS OVER
THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH MID WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 04N83W TO 07N95W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N95W TO 08N110W TO 07N125W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 04.5N BETWEEN 83W
AND 86W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 107W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA
W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW HAS DEVELOPED JUST W OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND IS CENTERED NEAR 27N117W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW S-SW TO NEAR 13N122W. ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING E-NE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND WESTERN
VENEZUELA EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONG HIGH PRES THAT WAS LOCATED WELL N OF
THE AREA DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS IS WEAKENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH PRES OF 1023 MB EXTENDS A
RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...FORMERLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...EXTENDS FROM 19N137W TO
12N139W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE FROM 15N TO 25N W OF 120W. A NEW TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM
20N116W TO 11N118W AND IS GENERATING SOME SHOWERS AND TSTM
ACTIVITY. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NE OF HAWAII...IS PROPAGATING SE
THROUGH THE WESTERN WATERS. THESE SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN MAX
COMBINED SEAS OF 11-12 FT WITH PERIODS OF 16-18 SECONDS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA AROUND
25/1800 UTC AND EXTEND FROM 30N136W TO 23N140W BY 26/1800 UTC.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 9-11 FT. THE EXTENSIVE SWELL TRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS REACHING THE AREA W OF A
LINE FROM 30N120W TO 15N130W TO 07N135W BY 48 HOURS.

HIGH PRES OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE PRESENTLY FRESH TO STRONG FROM N
OF 29N WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT
TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. AT THAT
TIME...MARINE GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF FONSECA.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE
GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING REACHING 25 KT N OF
05N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W.

THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST TUE TO SUPPORT ALL THESE GAP WIND
EVENTS.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250334
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N
TO NE WINDS OF 30-40 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD
DENSE AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO
THE GULF. MAX SEAS OF 14-16 FT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WIND
SPEEDS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 35-40 KT LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR OCCURS.
THIS IS FORECAST TO BE A LONG DURATION GALE FORCE GAP WIND
EVENT. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES PERSISTS OVER
THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH MID WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 04N83W TO 07N95W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N95W TO 08N110W TO 07N125W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 04.5N BETWEEN 83W
AND 86W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 107W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA
W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW HAS DEVELOPED JUST W OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND IS CENTERED NEAR 27N117W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW S-SW TO NEAR 13N122W. ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING E-NE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND WESTERN
VENEZUELA EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONG HIGH PRES THAT WAS LOCATED WELL N OF
THE AREA DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS IS WEAKENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH PRES OF 1023 MB EXTENDS A
RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...FORMERLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...EXTENDS FROM 19N137W TO
12N139W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE FROM 15N TO 25N W OF 120W. A NEW TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM
20N116W TO 11N118W AND IS GENERATING SOME SHOWERS AND TSTM
ACTIVITY. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NE OF HAWAII...IS PROPAGATING SE
THROUGH THE WESTERN WATERS. THESE SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN MAX
COMBINED SEAS OF 11-12 FT WITH PERIODS OF 16-18 SECONDS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA AROUND
25/1800 UTC AND EXTEND FROM 30N136W TO 23N140W BY 26/1800 UTC.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 9-11 FT. THE EXTENSIVE SWELL TRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS REACHING THE AREA W OF A
LINE FROM 30N120W TO 15N130W TO 07N135W BY 48 HOURS.

HIGH PRES OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE PRESENTLY FRESH TO STRONG FROM N
OF 29N WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT
TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. AT THAT
TIME...MARINE GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF FONSECA.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE
GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING REACHING 25 KT N OF
05N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W.

THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST TUE TO SUPPORT ALL THESE GAP WIND
EVENTS.

$$
GR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 250003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALONG THE WESTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A
984 MB CENTER NEAR 39N71W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER AND ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FROM 31N75W TO
25N81W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND A RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB NEAR 35N51W IS
SUPPORTING SW TO W GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 27N BETWEEN 73W AND
79W. EXPECTED SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS AREA RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 16
FEET. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TONIGHT.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 07N12W TO 04N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 02N32W WHERE IT BRIEFLY BREAKS DUE TO A SURFACE
TROUGH...THEN CONTINUES FROM 02N36W TO 01N47W...SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 07N34W TO 02N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...SURFACE RIDGING HAS BUILT
ACROSS THE GULF BEING ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH ON THE NW GULF
NEAR 24N96W. NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT COVERS THE BASIN E OF 87W
WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE SE OF LINE
FROM 30N87W TO 20N96W WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 8 TO 10
FT IN W TO NW SWELL. COLD DRY AIR COVERS THE GULF SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE MODERATE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT OVERCAST SKIES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF SUNDAY. A
NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY
MORNING...FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE BASIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALONG THE WESTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A
984 MB CENTER NEAR 39N71W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER AND ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FROM 31N75W TO
25N81W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO 22N82W TO NORTHERN-CENTRAL
HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE FAR WEST
CARIBBEAN WEST OF FRONT NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT DOMINATE WITH SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FT. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE E OF 80W...EXCEPT
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE WIND INCREASES TO 20 KT. OTHER
ACTIVITY IN THE CARIBBEAN INCLUDES SCATTERED PATCHES SHALLOW
MOISTURE ENHANCING SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO...EASTERN HISPANIOLA
AND ADJACENT WATERS. ON SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO 1N686W...TRANSITIONING TO A
STATIONARY FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 21N77W TO 16N86W MONDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND
THE EASTERN HISPANIOLA ENHANCING SHOWERS THIS EVENING. THIS
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG
WITH DRY AIR WILL HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND FROM THE
WEST ON MONDAY...THUS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALONG THE WESTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A
984 MB CENTER NEAR 39N71W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER...WHICH ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FROM 31N75W
TO 25N81W WITH TAIL EXTENDING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A DIFFLUENT
PATTERN BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH THAT SUPPORT THE FRONT AND A
RIDGE FARTHER EAST ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ENHANCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N
OF CUBA...TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB NEAR 35N51W IS SUPPORTING SW TO W GALE
FORCE WINDS N OF 27N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W. EXPECTED SEA HEIGHTS
IN THIS AREA RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 16 FEET. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG 30N42W SW TO 26N55W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 24N TO 35W.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE E ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 250003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALONG THE WESTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A
984 MB CENTER NEAR 39N71W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER AND ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FROM 31N75W TO
25N81W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND A RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB NEAR 35N51W IS
SUPPORTING SW TO W GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 27N BETWEEN 73W AND
79W. EXPECTED SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS AREA RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 16
FEET. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TONIGHT.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 07N12W TO 04N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 02N32W WHERE IT BRIEFLY BREAKS DUE TO A SURFACE
TROUGH...THEN CONTINUES FROM 02N36W TO 01N47W...SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 07N34W TO 02N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...SURFACE RIDGING HAS BUILT
ACROSS THE GULF BEING ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH ON THE NW GULF
NEAR 24N96W. NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT COVERS THE BASIN E OF 87W
WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE SE OF LINE
FROM 30N87W TO 20N96W WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 8 TO 10
FT IN W TO NW SWELL. COLD DRY AIR COVERS THE GULF SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE MODERATE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT OVERCAST SKIES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF SUNDAY. A
NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY
MORNING...FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE BASIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALONG THE WESTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A
984 MB CENTER NEAR 39N71W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER AND ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FROM 31N75W TO
25N81W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO 22N82W TO NORTHERN-CENTRAL
HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE FAR WEST
CARIBBEAN WEST OF FRONT NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT DOMINATE WITH SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FT. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE E OF 80W...EXCEPT
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE WIND INCREASES TO 20 KT. OTHER
ACTIVITY IN THE CARIBBEAN INCLUDES SCATTERED PATCHES SHALLOW
MOISTURE ENHANCING SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO...EASTERN HISPANIOLA
AND ADJACENT WATERS. ON SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO 1N686W...TRANSITIONING TO A
STATIONARY FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 21N77W TO 16N86W MONDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND
THE EASTERN HISPANIOLA ENHANCING SHOWERS THIS EVENING. THIS
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG
WITH DRY AIR WILL HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND FROM THE
WEST ON MONDAY...THUS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALONG THE WESTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A
984 MB CENTER NEAR 39N71W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER...WHICH ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FROM 31N75W
TO 25N81W WITH TAIL EXTENDING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A DIFFLUENT
PATTERN BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH THAT SUPPORT THE FRONT AND A
RIDGE FARTHER EAST ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ENHANCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N
OF CUBA...TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB NEAR 35N51W IS SUPPORTING SW TO W GALE
FORCE WINDS N OF 27N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W. EXPECTED SEA HEIGHTS
IN THIS AREA RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 16 FEET. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG 30N42W SW TO 26N55W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 24N TO 35W.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE E ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



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