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000
AXNT20 KNHC 281659
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
05N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N17W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 05N-07N BETWEEN 17W-23W...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
02N13W TO 04N26W TO 03N38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTH
TEXAS NEAR 33N97W THAT SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN FOCUSED ON A 1005 MB LOW CENTERED IN
THE NW GULF WATERS NEAR 27N92W. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE EAST OVER THE NE GULF AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA THAT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
FROM NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL WEST TO 28N86W. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS N OF 25N E OF 86W. FARTHER WEST...A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 28N86W INTO THE LOW CENTER WITH A COLD FRONT SW
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO COAST NEAR
22N98W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN A 300 NM
SWATH OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO 22N98W. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARD THE TAMPA BAY REGION
BY WEDNESDAY WITH FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. BY THURSDAY...AS THE
LOW MOVES INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION AND THE EXISTING
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE BASIN...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZE NORTHERLIES ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND STABLE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT
PROVIDING FOR OVERALL CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE CARIBBEAN AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...THE MAIN MARINE IMPACT IS FRESH TO
OCCASIONAL STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS GENERALLY E OF 75W THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. ONE EXCEPTION TO THE
OVERALL TRANQUIL CONDITIONS IS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WEDNESDAY...BEGIN TO STALL AND BECOME
DIFFUSE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT
MAINTAIN STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COMPLEX MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN THE VICINITY OF 43N62W.
THE LOW SUPPORTS THE PARENT 988 MB SURFACE LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED
996 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N54W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM
THIS LOW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N57W TO 27N70W TO
27N74W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. MOST MID-LEVEL ENERGY
IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER FLORIDA
WHERE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING N OF 24N W OF 76W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N20W. LOOKING
AHEAD...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS POISED TO ENTER THE SW NORTH ATLC WEDNESDAY AND
DEVELOP FURTHER AS IT MOVES N-NE TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS BY
FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL INTRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY N OF 27N IN WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281659
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
05N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N17W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 05N-07N BETWEEN 17W-23W...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
02N13W TO 04N26W TO 03N38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTH
TEXAS NEAR 33N97W THAT SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN FOCUSED ON A 1005 MB LOW CENTERED IN
THE NW GULF WATERS NEAR 27N92W. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE EAST OVER THE NE GULF AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA THAT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
FROM NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL WEST TO 28N86W. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS N OF 25N E OF 86W. FARTHER WEST...A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 28N86W INTO THE LOW CENTER WITH A COLD FRONT SW
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO COAST NEAR
22N98W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN A 300 NM
SWATH OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO 22N98W. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARD THE TAMPA BAY REGION
BY WEDNESDAY WITH FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. BY THURSDAY...AS THE
LOW MOVES INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION AND THE EXISTING
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE BASIN...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZE NORTHERLIES ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND STABLE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT
PROVIDING FOR OVERALL CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE CARIBBEAN AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...THE MAIN MARINE IMPACT IS FRESH TO
OCCASIONAL STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS GENERALLY E OF 75W THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. ONE EXCEPTION TO THE
OVERALL TRANQUIL CONDITIONS IS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WEDNESDAY...BEGIN TO STALL AND BECOME
DIFFUSE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT
MAINTAIN STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COMPLEX MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN THE VICINITY OF 43N62W.
THE LOW SUPPORTS THE PARENT 988 MB SURFACE LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED
996 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N54W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM
THIS LOW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N57W TO 27N70W TO
27N74W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. MOST MID-LEVEL ENERGY
IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER FLORIDA
WHERE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING N OF 24N W OF 76W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N20W. LOOKING
AHEAD...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS POISED TO ENTER THE SW NORTH ATLC WEDNESDAY AND
DEVELOP FURTHER AS IT MOVES N-NE TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS BY
FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL INTRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY N OF 27N IN WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281555
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE APR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT SE OF TEHUANTEPEC
AND HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS
TO SUPPORT MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
THROUGH THU MORNING. SEAS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BUILD UP TO 13
FT. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT
OF GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 15N THU NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 11N112W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 116W. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 08N120W TO
06N127W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N127W TO 07N135W TO 06N140W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 02N TO 08N E OF 97W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO
15N BETWEEN 97W AND 113W AND FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 116W AND
127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ W
OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING W
FROM TEXAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA TO 26N126W THEN S-SW TO 13N127W. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT
IS W OF THE TROUGH AND A SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED SE OF THE TROUGH FROM ACTIVE CONVECTION OCCURRING E OF
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER BETWEEN 99W-112W. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
34N131W TO 28N140W. NW SWELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH
THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA WITHIN 6 HOURS THEN QUICKLY SUBSIDE
WED AS THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WEAKENS TONIGHT. ANOTHER SURGE
OF N-NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG N WINDS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SWEEP S OF 30N INTO NE PORTION OF THE AREA
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD...VERY LARGE AREA OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD
SW SWELL WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT S AND SE PORTIONS THU NIGHT AND
FRI WITH SEAS 9-10 FT AND 19-20 SEC PERIOD. THIS SWELL WILL
REACH THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA THIS WEEKEND...WITH
LARGE SURF LIKELY FROM PANAMA TO CENTRAL MEXICO.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281555
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE APR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT SE OF TEHUANTEPEC
AND HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS
TO SUPPORT MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
THROUGH THU MORNING. SEAS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BUILD UP TO 13
FT. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT
OF GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 15N THU NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 11N112W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 116W. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 08N120W TO
06N127W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N127W TO 07N135W TO 06N140W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 02N TO 08N E OF 97W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO
15N BETWEEN 97W AND 113W AND FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 116W AND
127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ W
OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING W
FROM TEXAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA TO 26N126W THEN S-SW TO 13N127W. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT
IS W OF THE TROUGH AND A SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED SE OF THE TROUGH FROM ACTIVE CONVECTION OCCURRING E OF
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER BETWEEN 99W-112W. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
34N131W TO 28N140W. NW SWELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH
THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA WITHIN 6 HOURS THEN QUICKLY SUBSIDE
WED AS THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WEAKENS TONIGHT. ANOTHER SURGE
OF N-NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG N WINDS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SWEEP S OF 30N INTO NE PORTION OF THE AREA
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD...VERY LARGE AREA OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD
SW SWELL WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT S AND SE PORTIONS THU NIGHT AND
FRI WITH SEAS 9-10 FT AND 19-20 SEC PERIOD. THIS SWELL WILL
REACH THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA THIS WEEKEND...WITH
LARGE SURF LIKELY FROM PANAMA TO CENTRAL MEXICO.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281555
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE APR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT SE OF TEHUANTEPEC
AND HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS
TO SUPPORT MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
THROUGH THU MORNING. SEAS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BUILD UP TO 13
FT. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT
OF GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 15N THU NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 11N112W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 116W. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 08N120W TO
06N127W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N127W TO 07N135W TO 06N140W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 02N TO 08N E OF 97W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO
15N BETWEEN 97W AND 113W AND FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 116W AND
127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ W
OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING W
FROM TEXAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA TO 26N126W THEN S-SW TO 13N127W. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT
IS W OF THE TROUGH AND A SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED SE OF THE TROUGH FROM ACTIVE CONVECTION OCCURRING E OF
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER BETWEEN 99W-112W. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
34N131W TO 28N140W. NW SWELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH
THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA WITHIN 6 HOURS THEN QUICKLY SUBSIDE
WED AS THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WEAKENS TONIGHT. ANOTHER SURGE
OF N-NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG N WINDS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SWEEP S OF 30N INTO NE PORTION OF THE AREA
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD...VERY LARGE AREA OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD
SW SWELL WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT S AND SE PORTIONS THU NIGHT AND
FRI WITH SEAS 9-10 FT AND 19-20 SEC PERIOD. THIS SWELL WILL
REACH THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA THIS WEEKEND...WITH
LARGE SURF LIKELY FROM PANAMA TO CENTRAL MEXICO.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281555
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE APR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT SE OF TEHUANTEPEC
AND HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS
TO SUPPORT MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
THROUGH THU MORNING. SEAS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BUILD UP TO 13
FT. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT
OF GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 15N THU NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 11N112W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 116W. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 08N120W TO
06N127W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N127W TO 07N135W TO 06N140W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 02N TO 08N E OF 97W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO
15N BETWEEN 97W AND 113W AND FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 116W AND
127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ W
OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING W
FROM TEXAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA TO 26N126W THEN S-SW TO 13N127W. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT
IS W OF THE TROUGH AND A SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED SE OF THE TROUGH FROM ACTIVE CONVECTION OCCURRING E OF
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER BETWEEN 99W-112W. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
34N131W TO 28N140W. NW SWELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH
THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA WITHIN 6 HOURS THEN QUICKLY SUBSIDE
WED AS THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WEAKENS TONIGHT. ANOTHER SURGE
OF N-NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG N WINDS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SWEEP S OF 30N INTO NE PORTION OF THE AREA
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD...VERY LARGE AREA OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD
SW SWELL WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT S AND SE PORTIONS THU NIGHT AND
FRI WITH SEAS 9-10 FT AND 19-20 SEC PERIOD. THIS SWELL WILL
REACH THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA THIS WEEKEND...WITH
LARGE SURF LIKELY FROM PANAMA TO CENTRAL MEXICO.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281555
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE APR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT SE OF TEHUANTEPEC
AND HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS
TO SUPPORT MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
THROUGH THU MORNING. SEAS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BUILD UP TO 13
FT. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT
OF GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 15N THU NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 11N112W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 116W. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 08N120W TO
06N127W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N127W TO 07N135W TO 06N140W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 02N TO 08N E OF 97W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO
15N BETWEEN 97W AND 113W AND FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 116W AND
127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ W
OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING W
FROM TEXAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA TO 26N126W THEN S-SW TO 13N127W. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT
IS W OF THE TROUGH AND A SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED SE OF THE TROUGH FROM ACTIVE CONVECTION OCCURRING E OF
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER BETWEEN 99W-112W. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
34N131W TO 28N140W. NW SWELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH
THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA WITHIN 6 HOURS THEN QUICKLY SUBSIDE
WED AS THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WEAKENS TONIGHT. ANOTHER SURGE
OF N-NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG N WINDS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SWEEP S OF 30N INTO NE PORTION OF THE AREA
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD...VERY LARGE AREA OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD
SW SWELL WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT S AND SE PORTIONS THU NIGHT AND
FRI WITH SEAS 9-10 FT AND 19-20 SEC PERIOD. THIS SWELL WILL
REACH THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA THIS WEEKEND...WITH
LARGE SURF LIKELY FROM PANAMA TO CENTRAL MEXICO.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281555
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE APR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT SE OF TEHUANTEPEC
AND HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS
TO SUPPORT MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
THROUGH THU MORNING. SEAS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BUILD UP TO 13
FT. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT
OF GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 15N THU NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 11N112W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 116W. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 08N120W TO
06N127W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N127W TO 07N135W TO 06N140W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 02N TO 08N E OF 97W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO
15N BETWEEN 97W AND 113W AND FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 116W AND
127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ W
OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING W
FROM TEXAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA TO 26N126W THEN S-SW TO 13N127W. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT
IS W OF THE TROUGH AND A SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED SE OF THE TROUGH FROM ACTIVE CONVECTION OCCURRING E OF
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER BETWEEN 99W-112W. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
34N131W TO 28N140W. NW SWELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH
THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA WITHIN 6 HOURS THEN QUICKLY SUBSIDE
WED AS THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WEAKENS TONIGHT. ANOTHER SURGE
OF N-NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG N WINDS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SWEEP S OF 30N INTO NE PORTION OF THE AREA
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD...VERY LARGE AREA OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD
SW SWELL WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT S AND SE PORTIONS THU NIGHT AND
FRI WITH SEAS 9-10 FT AND 19-20 SEC PERIOD. THIS SWELL WILL
REACH THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA THIS WEEKEND...WITH
LARGE SURF LIKELY FROM PANAMA TO CENTRAL MEXICO.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXNT20 KNHC 281045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 8N13W THEN ALONG 6N15W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 3N27W 2N33W TO S OF THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 19W-36W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN
10W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
MOST OF THE GULF WITH THE STRONG UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS EXTENDING
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W.  AT 28/0900
UTC A 1003 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N93W WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
EXTENDING S ALONG TO 24N92W TO 22N95W THEN CONTINUES AS
STATIONARY FRONT INTO MEXICO JUST S OF TUXPAN. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE 1003 LOW ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA ALONG
30N87W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN
CEDAR KEY AND TAMPA THEN INTO THE W ATLC NEAR MELBOURNE.
SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF
27N E OF 89W TO OVER FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF N OF 25N E OF 92W. THIS IS LEAVING THE SW GULF UNDER
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST NESDIS HAZARD
MAPPING SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FIRES OVER
S MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE STILL SPREADING SMOKE
ACROSS THE SW GULF. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR MOBILE BAY TONIGHT
WITH THE FRONT E OF THE LOW LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT AND W OF
THE LOW EXTENDING AS A COLD FRONT TO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE FRONT WILL PASS SE OF THE AREA WED NIGHT WITH
RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE W ON THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND EXTENDS OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER NE HAITI. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING.
NESDIS LATEST HAZARD MAPPING SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE FIRES OVER HONDURAS AND THE YUCATAN ARE SPREADING
SMOKE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND N INTO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
SE CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED AND REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO E
HONDURAS THU NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS NE HAITI THIS
MORNING. LOW RAINFALL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE NORM FOR
MOST OF THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION WHERE DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE W INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC. A COLD FRONT AT 28/0900 UTC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N61W TO
28N69W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 28N74W TO ACROSS
FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 25N W OF 73W WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 75W-80W. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 30N58W TO 26N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 54W-60W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE E ATLC BY A 1023 MB HIGH BETWEEN MADIERA AND
AZORES ISLANDS AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N24W ALONG
23N40W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W. THE E PORTION OF THE W ATLC
FRONT WILL CONTINUE S TO ALONG 32N54W TO 24N65W TONIGHT WHILE
THE W PORTION REMAINS N OF CAPE CANAVERAL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO W ATLC LATE WED. THE NEW COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N79W TO STUART FLORIDA WED NIGHT AND
FROM 31N71W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 8N13W THEN ALONG 6N15W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 3N27W 2N33W TO S OF THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 19W-36W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN
10W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
MOST OF THE GULF WITH THE STRONG UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS EXTENDING
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W.  AT 28/0900
UTC A 1003 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N93W WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
EXTENDING S ALONG TO 24N92W TO 22N95W THEN CONTINUES AS
STATIONARY FRONT INTO MEXICO JUST S OF TUXPAN. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE 1003 LOW ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA ALONG
30N87W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN
CEDAR KEY AND TAMPA THEN INTO THE W ATLC NEAR MELBOURNE.
SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF
27N E OF 89W TO OVER FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF N OF 25N E OF 92W. THIS IS LEAVING THE SW GULF UNDER
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST NESDIS HAZARD
MAPPING SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FIRES OVER
S MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE STILL SPREADING SMOKE
ACROSS THE SW GULF. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR MOBILE BAY TONIGHT
WITH THE FRONT E OF THE LOW LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT AND W OF
THE LOW EXTENDING AS A COLD FRONT TO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE FRONT WILL PASS SE OF THE AREA WED NIGHT WITH
RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE W ON THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND EXTENDS OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER NE HAITI. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING.
NESDIS LATEST HAZARD MAPPING SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE FIRES OVER HONDURAS AND THE YUCATAN ARE SPREADING
SMOKE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND N INTO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
SE CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED AND REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO E
HONDURAS THU NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS NE HAITI THIS
MORNING. LOW RAINFALL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE NORM FOR
MOST OF THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION WHERE DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE W INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC. A COLD FRONT AT 28/0900 UTC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N61W TO
28N69W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 28N74W TO ACROSS
FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 25N W OF 73W WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 75W-80W. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 30N58W TO 26N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 54W-60W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE E ATLC BY A 1023 MB HIGH BETWEEN MADIERA AND
AZORES ISLANDS AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N24W ALONG
23N40W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W. THE E PORTION OF THE W ATLC
FRONT WILL CONTINUE S TO ALONG 32N54W TO 24N65W TONIGHT WHILE
THE W PORTION REMAINS N OF CAPE CANAVERAL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO W ATLC LATE WED. THE NEW COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N79W TO STUART FLORIDA WED NIGHT AND
FROM 31N71W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280933
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE APR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT SE OF TEHUANTEPEC
AND HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER SE MEXICO...TIGHTENING THE PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS TO SUPPORT MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WED NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12-13
FT BY LATE WED NIGHT. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 15N THU NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N99W TO 11N112W TO 09N117W. 1011 MB LOW
PRES CENTERED NEAR 08N118W WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION. ITCZ FROM
08N121W TO 08N134W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 98W AND 113W...AND
WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND 126W.

...DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING W
FROM TEXAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA TO 26N126W THEN S-SW TO 13N127W. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT
IS W OF THE TROUGH AND A SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED SE OF THE TROUGH FROM ACTIVE CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 98W-113W.

AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 40N129W TO 30N140W TO
25N150W IS WEAKENING THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH...CAUSING TRADE WINDS
S OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO DIMINISH. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS
A MARKED DECREASE IN E-NE WINDS W OF 120W DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. NW SWELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW PORTION
OF THE AREA WITHIN 6 HOURS THEN QUICKLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH
WED AS THE DYING FRONT RAPIDLY WEAKENS TONIGHT. ANOTHER SURGE OF
N-NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG N WINDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL SWEEP S OF 30N INTO NE PORTION OF THE AREA WED NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD...VERY LARGE AREA OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD
SW SWELL WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT S AND SE PORTIONS THU NIGHT AND
FRI WITH SEAS 10-12 FT AND 19-20 SEC PERIOD. THIS SWELL WILL
REACH THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA THIS WEEKEND...WITH
LARGE SURF LIKELY FROM PANAMA TO CENTRAL MEXICO.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280933
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE APR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT SE OF TEHUANTEPEC
AND HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER SE MEXICO...TIGHTENING THE PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS TO SUPPORT MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WED NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12-13
FT BY LATE WED NIGHT. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 15N THU NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N99W TO 11N112W TO 09N117W. 1011 MB LOW
PRES CENTERED NEAR 08N118W WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION. ITCZ FROM
08N121W TO 08N134W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 98W AND 113W...AND
WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND 126W.

...DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING W
FROM TEXAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA TO 26N126W THEN S-SW TO 13N127W. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT
IS W OF THE TROUGH AND A SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED SE OF THE TROUGH FROM ACTIVE CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 98W-113W.

AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 40N129W TO 30N140W TO
25N150W IS WEAKENING THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH...CAUSING TRADE WINDS
S OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO DIMINISH. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS
A MARKED DECREASE IN E-NE WINDS W OF 120W DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. NW SWELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW PORTION
OF THE AREA WITHIN 6 HOURS THEN QUICKLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH
WED AS THE DYING FRONT RAPIDLY WEAKENS TONIGHT. ANOTHER SURGE OF
N-NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG N WINDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL SWEEP S OF 30N INTO NE PORTION OF THE AREA WED NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD...VERY LARGE AREA OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD
SW SWELL WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT S AND SE PORTIONS THU NIGHT AND
FRI WITH SEAS 10-12 FT AND 19-20 SEC PERIOD. THIS SWELL WILL
REACH THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA THIS WEEKEND...WITH
LARGE SURF LIKELY FROM PANAMA TO CENTRAL MEXICO.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N13W AND EXTENDS ALONG 6N15W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ
CONTINUES ALONG 3N27W 2N36W THE S OF THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-33W. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF WITH THE STRONG UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS
EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE FAR NW GULF WATERS. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND OVER THE
N GULF. AT THE SURFACE A 1001 MB LOW AT 28/0300 UTC IS CENTERED
NEAR 27N94W WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG 23N94W TO
21N95W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO MEXICO JUST S OF TUXPAN.
AN ACTIVE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1001 LOW ALONG 29N88W
ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY TO FLAGLER BEACH. SCATTERED TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN
85W-92W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF E
OF 86W AND W OF LINE FROM 26N86W ALONG 26N91W TO TUXPAN MEXICO.
THIS IS LEAVING THE SW GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT ALTHOUGH
THE LATEST NESDIS HAZARD MAPPING SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE FIRES OVER S MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE
STILL SPREADING SMOKE ACROSS THE SW GULF. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND OVER S ALABAMA WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE
E BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT EXITING THE GULF WED NIGHT WITH A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE W GULF THU NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND EXTENDS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W.
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 15N81W TO 11N76W. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT.
NESDIS LATEST HAZARD MAPPING SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE FIRES OVER HONDURAS AND THE YUCATAN ARE SPREADING
SMOKE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND N TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
PERIODS OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH WED. FRESH TRADE WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SE AND S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY LATE
TUE/EARLY WED AND DIMINISH BY LATE FRI. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED NIGHT AND STALL
FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO E HONDURAS BY THU NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS NW
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND NE HAITI. LOW RAINFALL AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE NORM FOR MOST OF THE ISLAND OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION
WHERE DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING COULD
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE W INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC. A COLD FRONT AT 28/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM A 1002 MB LOW
JUST E OF BERMUDA ALONG 29N69W 28N75W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY ALONG 29N79W TO THE COAST NEAR FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA
WHERE IT BECOMES A WARM ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF 25N W OF 76W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
29N60W TO 25N70W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
THROUGH 32N42W TO 22N42W. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO THE W OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 37W-55W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E
ATLC BY A 1024 MB HIGH BETWEEN MADIERA AND AZORES ISLANDS AND
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N25W ALONG 23N49W 20N58W TO
HISPANIOLA. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N52W TO
24N70W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TUE NIGHT AND FROM 32N41W TO 26N60W
THEN LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT TO THE SE GEORGIA COAST WED NIGHT.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE W ATLC WILL MOVE IN WED NIGHT
AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA THU NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N13W AND EXTENDS ALONG 6N15W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ
CONTINUES ALONG 3N27W 2N36W THE S OF THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-33W. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF WITH THE STRONG UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS
EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE FAR NW GULF WATERS. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND OVER THE
N GULF. AT THE SURFACE A 1001 MB LOW AT 28/0300 UTC IS CENTERED
NEAR 27N94W WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG 23N94W TO
21N95W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO MEXICO JUST S OF TUXPAN.
AN ACTIVE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1001 LOW ALONG 29N88W
ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY TO FLAGLER BEACH. SCATTERED TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN
85W-92W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF E
OF 86W AND W OF LINE FROM 26N86W ALONG 26N91W TO TUXPAN MEXICO.
THIS IS LEAVING THE SW GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT ALTHOUGH
THE LATEST NESDIS HAZARD MAPPING SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE FIRES OVER S MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE
STILL SPREADING SMOKE ACROSS THE SW GULF. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND OVER S ALABAMA WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE
E BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT EXITING THE GULF WED NIGHT WITH A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE W GULF THU NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND EXTENDS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W.
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 15N81W TO 11N76W. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT.
NESDIS LATEST HAZARD MAPPING SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE FIRES OVER HONDURAS AND THE YUCATAN ARE SPREADING
SMOKE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND N TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
PERIODS OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH WED. FRESH TRADE WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SE AND S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY LATE
TUE/EARLY WED AND DIMINISH BY LATE FRI. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED NIGHT AND STALL
FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO E HONDURAS BY THU NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS NW
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND NE HAITI. LOW RAINFALL AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE NORM FOR MOST OF THE ISLAND OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION
WHERE DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING COULD
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE W INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC. A COLD FRONT AT 28/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM A 1002 MB LOW
JUST E OF BERMUDA ALONG 29N69W 28N75W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY ALONG 29N79W TO THE COAST NEAR FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA
WHERE IT BECOMES A WARM ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF 25N W OF 76W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
29N60W TO 25N70W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
THROUGH 32N42W TO 22N42W. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO THE W OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 37W-55W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E
ATLC BY A 1024 MB HIGH BETWEEN MADIERA AND AZORES ISLANDS AND
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N25W ALONG 23N49W 20N58W TO
HISPANIOLA. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N52W TO
24N70W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TUE NIGHT AND FROM 32N41W TO 26N60W
THEN LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT TO THE SE GEORGIA COAST WED NIGHT.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE W ATLC WILL MOVE IN WED NIGHT
AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA THU NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N13W AND EXTENDS ALONG 6N15W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ
CONTINUES ALONG 3N27W 2N36W THE S OF THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-33W. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF WITH THE STRONG UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS
EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE FAR NW GULF WATERS. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND OVER THE
N GULF. AT THE SURFACE A 1001 MB LOW AT 28/0300 UTC IS CENTERED
NEAR 27N94W WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG 23N94W TO
21N95W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO MEXICO JUST S OF TUXPAN.
AN ACTIVE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1001 LOW ALONG 29N88W
ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY TO FLAGLER BEACH. SCATTERED TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN
85W-92W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF E
OF 86W AND W OF LINE FROM 26N86W ALONG 26N91W TO TUXPAN MEXICO.
THIS IS LEAVING THE SW GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT ALTHOUGH
THE LATEST NESDIS HAZARD MAPPING SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE FIRES OVER S MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE
STILL SPREADING SMOKE ACROSS THE SW GULF. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND OVER S ALABAMA WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE
E BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT EXITING THE GULF WED NIGHT WITH A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE W GULF THU NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND EXTENDS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W.
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 15N81W TO 11N76W. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT.
NESDIS LATEST HAZARD MAPPING SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE FIRES OVER HONDURAS AND THE YUCATAN ARE SPREADING
SMOKE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND N TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
PERIODS OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH WED. FRESH TRADE WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SE AND S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY LATE
TUE/EARLY WED AND DIMINISH BY LATE FRI. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED NIGHT AND STALL
FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO E HONDURAS BY THU NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS NW
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND NE HAITI. LOW RAINFALL AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE NORM FOR MOST OF THE ISLAND OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION
WHERE DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING COULD
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE W INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC. A COLD FRONT AT 28/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM A 1002 MB LOW
JUST E OF BERMUDA ALONG 29N69W 28N75W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY ALONG 29N79W TO THE COAST NEAR FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA
WHERE IT BECOMES A WARM ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF 25N W OF 76W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
29N60W TO 25N70W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
THROUGH 32N42W TO 22N42W. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO THE W OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 37W-55W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E
ATLC BY A 1024 MB HIGH BETWEEN MADIERA AND AZORES ISLANDS AND
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N25W ALONG 23N49W 20N58W TO
HISPANIOLA. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N52W TO
24N70W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TUE NIGHT AND FROM 32N41W TO 26N60W
THEN LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT TO THE SE GEORGIA COAST WED NIGHT.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE W ATLC WILL MOVE IN WED NIGHT
AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA THU NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N13W AND EXTENDS ALONG 6N15W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ
CONTINUES ALONG 3N27W 2N36W THE S OF THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-33W. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF WITH THE STRONG UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS
EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE FAR NW GULF WATERS. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND OVER THE
N GULF. AT THE SURFACE A 1001 MB LOW AT 28/0300 UTC IS CENTERED
NEAR 27N94W WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG 23N94W TO
21N95W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO MEXICO JUST S OF TUXPAN.
AN ACTIVE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1001 LOW ALONG 29N88W
ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY TO FLAGLER BEACH. SCATTERED TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN
85W-92W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF E
OF 86W AND W OF LINE FROM 26N86W ALONG 26N91W TO TUXPAN MEXICO.
THIS IS LEAVING THE SW GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT ALTHOUGH
THE LATEST NESDIS HAZARD MAPPING SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE FIRES OVER S MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE
STILL SPREADING SMOKE ACROSS THE SW GULF. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND OVER S ALABAMA WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE
E BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT EXITING THE GULF WED NIGHT WITH A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE W GULF THU NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND EXTENDS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W.
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 15N81W TO 11N76W. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT.
NESDIS LATEST HAZARD MAPPING SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE FIRES OVER HONDURAS AND THE YUCATAN ARE SPREADING
SMOKE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND N TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
PERIODS OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH WED. FRESH TRADE WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SE AND S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY LATE
TUE/EARLY WED AND DIMINISH BY LATE FRI. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED NIGHT AND STALL
FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO E HONDURAS BY THU NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS NW
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND NE HAITI. LOW RAINFALL AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE NORM FOR MOST OF THE ISLAND OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION
WHERE DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING COULD
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE W INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC. A COLD FRONT AT 28/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM A 1002 MB LOW
JUST E OF BERMUDA ALONG 29N69W 28N75W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY ALONG 29N79W TO THE COAST NEAR FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA
WHERE IT BECOMES A WARM ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF 25N W OF 76W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
29N60W TO 25N70W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
THROUGH 32N42W TO 22N42W. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO THE W OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 37W-55W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E
ATLC BY A 1024 MB HIGH BETWEEN MADIERA AND AZORES ISLANDS AND
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N25W ALONG 23N49W 20N58W TO
HISPANIOLA. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N52W TO
24N70W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TUE NIGHT AND FROM 32N41W TO 26N60W
THEN LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT TO THE SE GEORGIA COAST WED NIGHT.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE W ATLC WILL MOVE IN WED NIGHT
AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA THU NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280338
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE APR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPING SE OF TEHUANTEPEC
LIKELY INDUCED BY MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS APPROACHING THE AREA.
ALONG WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER NE MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A
GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT...THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT
AND SUPPORT GALE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY
WED AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO EARLY THU MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO UP TO 12 TO 13 FT DURING THE GALE FORCE WINDS BY LATE WED
NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N100W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 08N117W THEN CONTINUES AS THE ITCZ FROM THE LOW TO 06N140W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN
91W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 16N108W TO 05N100W TO
04N116W TO 16N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180
NM IN THE N AND SE QUADRANTS OF THE LOW...AND ALSO WITHIN 150 NM
N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 127W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...

TROUGHING ALOFT AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO INTO W TEXAS IS SUPPORTING RELATIVELY LOW PRES OVER NW
MEXICO INCLUDING BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. THIS PRES PATTERN HAS
RELAXED SINCE YESTERDAY WHEN GALE FORCE WINDS WERE OCCURRING
HOWEVER SOME RESIDUAL NORTHERLY SWELL PERSISTS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT
REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS 24N OFF BAJA. VARIOUS WAVE MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THESE SEAS
SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT OVERNIGHT.

FARTHER SOUTH...THE TROPICAL EPAC IS STARTING TO TRANSITION TO
ITS LATE SPRING/SUMMER PATTERN...WITH SIGNIFICANT MID LATITUDE
INFLUENCES. WHAT WAS A COHERENT ITCZ IS BREAKING DOWN INTO A
LARGE AREA OF EAST TO WEST ORIENTED TROUGHING ALONG ROUGHLY
10N...ALTHOUGH WITH FAIRLY WEAK AND INCONSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY APPROACHING FROM THE NW...PROVIDING SUPPORT TO A LARGE
AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION AROUND A 1008 MB SURFACE
LOW CENTERED NEAR 08N117W. GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS LOW PRES WILL
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH 48 TO 72 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS W...AND
AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST.

SEAS ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE TROPICAL EPAC WITH LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN LONG PERIOD SW
SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FT MOVES ACROSS THE EQUATOR
IN THE WATERS W OF THE GALAPAGOS.

W OF 120W...

A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS NOTED ALOFT AHEAD OF SHARP UPPER
TROUGHING APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF 25N...WEAKENING THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING
AHEAD OF IT TO INCLUDE A WEAKENING 1020 MB HIGH PRES AREA
CENTERED NEAR 31N134W. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW PERSISTENT FRESH
TRADE WIND FLOW FARTHER SOUTH TO DIMINISH BY TUE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC TONIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH. PERSISTENT TRADE WIND FLOW
ALONG WITH COMPONENTS OF NW SWELL ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 8 TO 10 FT
SEAS NOTED IN EARLIER ALTIMETER IMAGERY...COVERING AN AREA FROM
08N TO 16N W OF 124W. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE IN HEIGHTS AND
COVERAGE THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE TRADE WIND FLOW DIMINISHES.
WAVE GUIDANCE INDICATES LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE
NW CORNER OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING PROPAGATING TO THE SE
THROUGH WED WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280338
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE APR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPING SE OF TEHUANTEPEC
LIKELY INDUCED BY MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS APPROACHING THE AREA.
ALONG WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER NE MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A
GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT...THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT
AND SUPPORT GALE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY
WED AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO EARLY THU MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO UP TO 12 TO 13 FT DURING THE GALE FORCE WINDS BY LATE WED
NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N100W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 08N117W THEN CONTINUES AS THE ITCZ FROM THE LOW TO 06N140W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN
91W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 16N108W TO 05N100W TO
04N116W TO 16N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180
NM IN THE N AND SE QUADRANTS OF THE LOW...AND ALSO WITHIN 150 NM
N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 127W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...

TROUGHING ALOFT AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO INTO W TEXAS IS SUPPORTING RELATIVELY LOW PRES OVER NW
MEXICO INCLUDING BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. THIS PRES PATTERN HAS
RELAXED SINCE YESTERDAY WHEN GALE FORCE WINDS WERE OCCURRING
HOWEVER SOME RESIDUAL NORTHERLY SWELL PERSISTS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT
REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS 24N OFF BAJA. VARIOUS WAVE MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THESE SEAS
SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT OVERNIGHT.

FARTHER SOUTH...THE TROPICAL EPAC IS STARTING TO TRANSITION TO
ITS LATE SPRING/SUMMER PATTERN...WITH SIGNIFICANT MID LATITUDE
INFLUENCES. WHAT WAS A COHERENT ITCZ IS BREAKING DOWN INTO A
LARGE AREA OF EAST TO WEST ORIENTED TROUGHING ALONG ROUGHLY
10N...ALTHOUGH WITH FAIRLY WEAK AND INCONSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY APPROACHING FROM THE NW...PROVIDING SUPPORT TO A LARGE
AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION AROUND A 1008 MB SURFACE
LOW CENTERED NEAR 08N117W. GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS LOW PRES WILL
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH 48 TO 72 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS W...AND
AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST.

SEAS ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE TROPICAL EPAC WITH LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN LONG PERIOD SW
SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FT MOVES ACROSS THE EQUATOR
IN THE WATERS W OF THE GALAPAGOS.

W OF 120W...

A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS NOTED ALOFT AHEAD OF SHARP UPPER
TROUGHING APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF 25N...WEAKENING THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING
AHEAD OF IT TO INCLUDE A WEAKENING 1020 MB HIGH PRES AREA
CENTERED NEAR 31N134W. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW PERSISTENT FRESH
TRADE WIND FLOW FARTHER SOUTH TO DIMINISH BY TUE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC TONIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH. PERSISTENT TRADE WIND FLOW
ALONG WITH COMPONENTS OF NW SWELL ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 8 TO 10 FT
SEAS NOTED IN EARLIER ALTIMETER IMAGERY...COVERING AN AREA FROM
08N TO 16N W OF 124W. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE IN HEIGHTS AND
COVERAGE THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE TRADE WIND FLOW DIMINISHES.
WAVE GUIDANCE INDICATES LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE
NW CORNER OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING PROPAGATING TO THE SE
THROUGH WED WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT.

$$
LEWITSKY


000
AXNT20 KNHC 272350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N13W TO
4N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
4N18W TO 2N35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 0N50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 22W-
29W...AND FROM 1N-2S BETWEEN 44W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1000 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N95W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO
TAMPICO MEXICO AT 21N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NE OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 92W095W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.
FURTHER E...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MELBOURNE
FLORIDA AT 28N80W TO TAMPA FLORIDA AT 28N83W TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF AT 28N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS OVER THE NE GULF N OF FRONT TO 32N BETWEEN 82W-89W. 20-30 KT
NE WINDS ARE N OF FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS ALSO OVER S FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE...AND
STUART...MOVING E. SMOKE AND HAZE IS SEEN OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 24N BETWEEN 86W-94W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE SE GULF HAS 10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER N
TEXAS NEAR 34N101W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE LOW TO MOVE TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
AT 29N90W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 19N93W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE FRONT OVER FLORIDA
AND THE NE GULF TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W. 10-20 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF N VENEZUELA AND WEAKEST WINDS JUST S OF CUBA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER N
COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF JAMAICA AT 16N80W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HEATING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR REMAINS ALOFT
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER FOR TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N70W
TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA AT 28N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FLORIDA COAST N OF FORT
LAUDERDALE. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
30N59W TO 26N71W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-31N
BETWEEN 43W-67W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
29N31W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 29N25W TO
25N27W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS W OF
35W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N E OF 35W. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N50W TO S FLORIDA WITH
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION E OF FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 272350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N13W TO
4N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
4N18W TO 2N35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 0N50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 22W-
29W...AND FROM 1N-2S BETWEEN 44W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1000 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N95W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO
TAMPICO MEXICO AT 21N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NE OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 92W095W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.
FURTHER E...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MELBOURNE
FLORIDA AT 28N80W TO TAMPA FLORIDA AT 28N83W TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF AT 28N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS OVER THE NE GULF N OF FRONT TO 32N BETWEEN 82W-89W. 20-30 KT
NE WINDS ARE N OF FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS ALSO OVER S FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE...AND
STUART...MOVING E. SMOKE AND HAZE IS SEEN OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 24N BETWEEN 86W-94W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE SE GULF HAS 10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER N
TEXAS NEAR 34N101W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE LOW TO MOVE TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
AT 29N90W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 19N93W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE FRONT OVER FLORIDA
AND THE NE GULF TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W. 10-20 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF N VENEZUELA AND WEAKEST WINDS JUST S OF CUBA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER N
COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF JAMAICA AT 16N80W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HEATING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR REMAINS ALOFT
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER FOR TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N70W
TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA AT 28N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FLORIDA COAST N OF FORT
LAUDERDALE. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
30N59W TO 26N71W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-31N
BETWEEN 43W-67W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
29N31W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 29N25W TO
25N27W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS W OF
35W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N E OF 35W. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N50W TO S FLORIDA WITH
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION E OF FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272125
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON APR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N89W TO 13N105W TO LOW PRESSURE
NEAR 07N118W TO 04N125W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 90W AND
95W...FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W...WITHIN 300 NM SE
OF AXIS BETWEEN 104W AND 113W...AND WITHIN 360 NM IN THE SE
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...

TROUGHING ALOFT AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO INTO W TEXAS IS SUPPORTING RELATIVELY LOW PRES OVER NW
MEXICO INCLUDING BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS
AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE MAINLY 10-20 KT NW FLOW OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TO THE SOUTH OF 30N...
BETWEEN 1025 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 31N134W AND THE LOWER
PRESSURE OVER NW MEXICO. THESE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SINCE LAST
NIGHT AS THE LOW PRES SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...
AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WEAKENS. RESIDUAL NORTHERLY SWELL
GENERATED FROM THE WINDS PERSIST WITH 8 TO 9 FT SEAS REACHING AS
FAR SOUTH AS 24N OFF BAJA. VARIOUS WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THESE SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT
OVERNIGHT.

FARTHER SOUTH...THE TROPICAL EPAC IS STARTING TO TRANSITION TO
ITS LATE SPRING/SUMMER PATTERN...WITH SIGNIFICANT MID LATITUDE
INFLUENCES. WHAT WAS A COHERENT ITCZ IS BREAKING DOWN INTO A
LARGE AREA OF EAST TO WEST ORIENTED TROUGHING ALONG ROUGHLY
10N...ALTHOUGH WITH FAIRLY WEAK AND INCONSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY APPROACHING FROM THE NW...PROVIDING SUPPORT TO A LARGE
AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION AROUND A 1008 MB SURFACE
LOW CENTERED NEAR 07N118W. GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS LOW PRES WILL
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH 48 TO 72 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS W...AND
AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST.

BY THURSDAY...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER 1007
MB LOW PRES SE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIKELY INFLUENCED BY
THE SAME MID/UPPER DYNAMICS APPROACHING THE AREA CURRENTLY.
ALONG WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER NE MEXICO...THIS WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRES GRADIENT AND SUPPORT POSSIBLY GALE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING. SEAS ARE
GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE TROPICAL EPAC WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK UNTIL AFTER MID WEEK WHEN LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FT MOVES ACROSS THE
EQUATOR IN THE WATERS W OF THE GALAPAGOS.

W OF 120W...

A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS NOTED ALOFT AHEAD OF SHARP UPPER
TROUGHING APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF 25N...WEAKENING THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING
AHEAD OF IT TO INCLUDE A 1024 MB HIGH PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR
31N134W. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW PERSISTENT FRESH TRADE WIND
FLOW FARTHER SOUTH TO DIMINISH BY TUE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
TONIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH. PERSISTENT TRADE WIND FLOW ALONG WITH
COMPONENTS OF NW SWELL ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 8 TO 10 FT SEAS NOTED
IN RECENT ALTIMETER IMAGERY...COVERING A LARGE AREA FROM 06N TO
15N W OF 115W. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE IN HEIGHTS AND COVERAGE
THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE TRADE WIND FLOW DIMINISHES. WAVE
GUIDANCE INDICATES LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE NW
CORNER OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING PROPAGATING TO THE SE THROUGH
WED WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT.

$$
LEWITSKY/CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272125
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON APR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N89W TO 13N105W TO LOW PRESSURE
NEAR 07N118W TO 04N125W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 90W AND
95W...FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W...WITHIN 300 NM SE
OF AXIS BETWEEN 104W AND 113W...AND WITHIN 360 NM IN THE SE
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...

TROUGHING ALOFT AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO INTO W TEXAS IS SUPPORTING RELATIVELY LOW PRES OVER NW
MEXICO INCLUDING BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS
AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE MAINLY 10-20 KT NW FLOW OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TO THE SOUTH OF 30N...
BETWEEN 1025 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 31N134W AND THE LOWER
PRESSURE OVER NW MEXICO. THESE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SINCE LAST
NIGHT AS THE LOW PRES SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...
AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WEAKENS. RESIDUAL NORTHERLY SWELL
GENERATED FROM THE WINDS PERSIST WITH 8 TO 9 FT SEAS REACHING AS
FAR SOUTH AS 24N OFF BAJA. VARIOUS WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THESE SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT
OVERNIGHT.

FARTHER SOUTH...THE TROPICAL EPAC IS STARTING TO TRANSITION TO
ITS LATE SPRING/SUMMER PATTERN...WITH SIGNIFICANT MID LATITUDE
INFLUENCES. WHAT WAS A COHERENT ITCZ IS BREAKING DOWN INTO A
LARGE AREA OF EAST TO WEST ORIENTED TROUGHING ALONG ROUGHLY
10N...ALTHOUGH WITH FAIRLY WEAK AND INCONSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY APPROACHING FROM THE NW...PROVIDING SUPPORT TO A LARGE
AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION AROUND A 1008 MB SURFACE
LOW CENTERED NEAR 07N118W. GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS LOW PRES WILL
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH 48 TO 72 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS W...AND
AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST.

BY THURSDAY...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER 1007
MB LOW PRES SE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIKELY INFLUENCED BY
THE SAME MID/UPPER DYNAMICS APPROACHING THE AREA CURRENTLY.
ALONG WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER NE MEXICO...THIS WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRES GRADIENT AND SUPPORT POSSIBLY GALE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING. SEAS ARE
GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE TROPICAL EPAC WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK UNTIL AFTER MID WEEK WHEN LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FT MOVES ACROSS THE
EQUATOR IN THE WATERS W OF THE GALAPAGOS.

W OF 120W...

A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS NOTED ALOFT AHEAD OF SHARP UPPER
TROUGHING APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF 25N...WEAKENING THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING
AHEAD OF IT TO INCLUDE A 1024 MB HIGH PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR
31N134W. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW PERSISTENT FRESH TRADE WIND
FLOW FARTHER SOUTH TO DIMINISH BY TUE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
TONIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH. PERSISTENT TRADE WIND FLOW ALONG WITH
COMPONENTS OF NW SWELL ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 8 TO 10 FT SEAS NOTED
IN RECENT ALTIMETER IMAGERY...COVERING A LARGE AREA FROM 06N TO
15N W OF 115W. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE IN HEIGHTS AND COVERAGE
THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE TRADE WIND FLOW DIMINISHES. WAVE
GUIDANCE INDICATES LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE NW
CORNER OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING PROPAGATING TO THE SE THROUGH
WED WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT.

$$
LEWITSKY/CHRISTENSEN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 271804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS FROM THE AFRICA INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 07N12W AND EXTENDS ALONG 03N15W TO 3N21W
WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 02N33W 01N40W TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 05N BETWEEN 10W AND 29W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 02S TO 02N W
OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN ATLC FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ENTERING THE SW N
ATLC WATERS...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF FROM 29N82W NW TO
SE LOUISIANA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN
DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT ADVECTING TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT SUPPORTS HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SQUALL
LINE MOVING ALONG SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO SE
LOUISIANA...EXTENDING TO ADJACENT WATERS N OF 28N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER
NE GULF WITHIN 50 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER NW TEXAS SUPPORTS A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ANCHORED BY A 1001 MB LOW OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 25N95W. A SECOND
LOW PRESSURE CENTER ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS EXTENDS A COLD
FRONT OVER THE NW BASIN ALONG 28N96W TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO
INLAND MEXICO. SEA FOG IS BEING REPORTED IN THIS REGION OF THE
GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W...COINCIDING GOES-13 IFR MEDIUM TO HIGH
FOG PROBABILITIES. WINDS MAINLY FROM THE S-SE OF 10 TO 15 KT
DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN S OF 27N. WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE
BEING REPORTED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SQUALL LINE. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NE GULF WILL MOVE TO
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE GULF EASTERN BASIN
THROUGH TONIGHT WHEN IT STARTS RETREATING AS A WARM FRONT. THE
LOW OVER THE WESTERN BASIN WILL DRIFT N AND THEN EAST ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF...REACHING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WED MORNING WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN WHILE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS WITH STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
SUPPORTING STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER. SSMI TPW IMAGERY
SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE SW BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH A 1006
MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA...HOWEVER NO
SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN THIS REGION. SCATTERED PATCHES OF
SHALLOW MOISTURE ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BASIN...POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATING THE
BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 83W AND S OF
15N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W WHERE 20 KT WINDS ARE BEING REPORTED.
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE ATLC WILL EXTEND OVER THE EASTERN BASIN
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE TAIL OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE
NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH NW CARIBBEAN WATERS BY WED
AFTERNOON.

...HISPANIOLA...

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND AS MIDDLE TO UPPER RIDGING
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN
HAITI AND EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN ATLC FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ENTERING THE SW N
ATLC WATERS ALONG 30N66W TO 28N80W...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
THE NE GULF FROM 29N82W NW TO SE LOUISIANA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. AHEAD OF IT...A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 29N58W TO 27N72W WITH SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 55W AND 72W. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 33N47W TO 27N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 275 NM AHEAD OF ITS AXIS. A 1019
MB DISSIPATING LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N25W WITH NO
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 271804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS FROM THE AFRICA INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 07N12W AND EXTENDS ALONG 03N15W TO 3N21W
WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 02N33W 01N40W TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 05N BETWEEN 10W AND 29W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 02S TO 02N W
OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN ATLC FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ENTERING THE SW N
ATLC WATERS...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF FROM 29N82W NW TO
SE LOUISIANA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN
DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT ADVECTING TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT SUPPORTS HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SQUALL
LINE MOVING ALONG SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO SE
LOUISIANA...EXTENDING TO ADJACENT WATERS N OF 28N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER
NE GULF WITHIN 50 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER NW TEXAS SUPPORTS A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ANCHORED BY A 1001 MB LOW OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 25N95W. A SECOND
LOW PRESSURE CENTER ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS EXTENDS A COLD
FRONT OVER THE NW BASIN ALONG 28N96W TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO
INLAND MEXICO. SEA FOG IS BEING REPORTED IN THIS REGION OF THE
GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W...COINCIDING GOES-13 IFR MEDIUM TO HIGH
FOG PROBABILITIES. WINDS MAINLY FROM THE S-SE OF 10 TO 15 KT
DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN S OF 27N. WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE
BEING REPORTED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SQUALL LINE. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NE GULF WILL MOVE TO
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE GULF EASTERN BASIN
THROUGH TONIGHT WHEN IT STARTS RETREATING AS A WARM FRONT. THE
LOW OVER THE WESTERN BASIN WILL DRIFT N AND THEN EAST ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF...REACHING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WED MORNING WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN WHILE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS WITH STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
SUPPORTING STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER. SSMI TPW IMAGERY
SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE SW BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH A 1006
MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA...HOWEVER NO
SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN THIS REGION. SCATTERED PATCHES OF
SHALLOW MOISTURE ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BASIN...POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATING THE
BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 83W AND S OF
15N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W WHERE 20 KT WINDS ARE BEING REPORTED.
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE ATLC WILL EXTEND OVER THE EASTERN BASIN
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE TAIL OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE
NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH NW CARIBBEAN WATERS BY WED
AFTERNOON.

...HISPANIOLA...

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND AS MIDDLE TO UPPER RIDGING
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN
HAITI AND EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN ATLC FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ENTERING THE SW N
ATLC WATERS ALONG 30N66W TO 28N80W...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
THE NE GULF FROM 29N82W NW TO SE LOUISIANA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. AHEAD OF IT...A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 29N58W TO 27N72W WITH SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 55W AND 72W. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 33N47W TO 27N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 275 NM AHEAD OF ITS AXIS. A 1019
MB DISSIPATING LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N25W WITH NO
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 271804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS FROM THE AFRICA INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 07N12W AND EXTENDS ALONG 03N15W TO 3N21W
WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 02N33W 01N40W TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 05N BETWEEN 10W AND 29W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 02S TO 02N W
OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN ATLC FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ENTERING THE SW N
ATLC WATERS...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF FROM 29N82W NW TO
SE LOUISIANA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN
DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT ADVECTING TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT SUPPORTS HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SQUALL
LINE MOVING ALONG SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO SE
LOUISIANA...EXTENDING TO ADJACENT WATERS N OF 28N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER
NE GULF WITHIN 50 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER NW TEXAS SUPPORTS A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ANCHORED BY A 1001 MB LOW OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 25N95W. A SECOND
LOW PRESSURE CENTER ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS EXTENDS A COLD
FRONT OVER THE NW BASIN ALONG 28N96W TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO
INLAND MEXICO. SEA FOG IS BEING REPORTED IN THIS REGION OF THE
GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W...COINCIDING GOES-13 IFR MEDIUM TO HIGH
FOG PROBABILITIES. WINDS MAINLY FROM THE S-SE OF 10 TO 15 KT
DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN S OF 27N. WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE
BEING REPORTED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SQUALL LINE. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NE GULF WILL MOVE TO
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE GULF EASTERN BASIN
THROUGH TONIGHT WHEN IT STARTS RETREATING AS A WARM FRONT. THE
LOW OVER THE WESTERN BASIN WILL DRIFT N AND THEN EAST ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF...REACHING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WED MORNING WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN WHILE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS WITH STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
SUPPORTING STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER. SSMI TPW IMAGERY
SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE SW BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH A 1006
MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA...HOWEVER NO
SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN THIS REGION. SCATTERED PATCHES OF
SHALLOW MOISTURE ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BASIN...POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATING THE
BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 83W AND S OF
15N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W WHERE 20 KT WINDS ARE BEING REPORTED.
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE ATLC WILL EXTEND OVER THE EASTERN BASIN
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE TAIL OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE
NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH NW CARIBBEAN WATERS BY WED
AFTERNOON.

...HISPANIOLA...

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND AS MIDDLE TO UPPER RIDGING
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN
HAITI AND EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN ATLC FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ENTERING THE SW N
ATLC WATERS ALONG 30N66W TO 28N80W...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
THE NE GULF FROM 29N82W NW TO SE LOUISIANA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. AHEAD OF IT...A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 29N58W TO 27N72W WITH SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 55W AND 72W. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 33N47W TO 27N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 275 NM AHEAD OF ITS AXIS. A 1019
MB DISSIPATING LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N25W WITH NO
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271608
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON APR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N89W TO 12N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR 07N115W
1007 MB TO 02N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ALSO IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS
BETWEEN 105W AND 120W. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM FROM 06.5N TO 08.5N BETWEEN 83W AND
87W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...

TROUGHING ALOFT ASSOCIATED AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO
INTO W TEXAS IS SUPPORTING RELATIVELY LOW PRES OVER NW MEXICO
INCLUDING BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE MAINLY 20 KT NW FLOW OFF THE COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TO THE SOUTH OF 30N...BETWEEN 1024 MB
HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 33N130W AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER NW
MEXICO. THESE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SINCE LAST NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRES SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...AND THE RIDGE TO
THE WEST WEAKENS. RESIDUAL NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED FROM THE
STRONG WINDS PERSIST HOWEVER...WITH 8 TO 10 FT SEAS REACHING AS
FAR SOUTH AS 24N OFF BAJA. VARIOUS WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THESE SEAS SUBSIDING  TO LESS THAN 8 FT
OVERNIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH...THE TROPICAL EPAC IS STARTING TO
TRANSITION TO ITS LATE SPRING/SUMMER PATTERN...WITH SIGNIFICANT
MID LATITUDE INFLUENCES. WHAT WAS A COHERENT ITCZ IS BREAKING
DOWN INTO A LARGE AREA OF EAST TO WEST ORIENTED  TROUGHING ALONG
ROUGHLY 10N...ALTHOUGH WITH FAIRLY WEAK AND INCONSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW. A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING FROM THE NW...PROVIDING
SUPPORT TO A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION AROUND
A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 06N116W. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THIS LOW PRES WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH 48 TO 72 HOURS
AS IT DRIFTS W...AND AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFT
EAST. BY THURSDAY...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
ANOTHER 1007 MB LOW PRES SE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIKELY
INFLUENCED BY THE SAME MID/UPPER DYNAMICS APPROACHING THE AREA
CURRENTLY. ALONG WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER NE MEXICO...THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT AND SUPPORT POSSIBLY GALE
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY WED NIGHT AND THU
MORNING. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE TROPICAL EPAC
WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK UNTIL AFTER
MID WEEK WHEN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10
FT MOVES ACROSS THE EQUATOR IN THE WATERS W OF THE GALAPAGOS.

W OF 110W...

A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS NOTED ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
TO THE NORTH OF 25N...WEAKENING THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING AHEAD OF
IT TO INCLUDE A 1024 MB HIGH PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR 33N130W.
THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW PERSISTENT FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW FARTHER
SOUTH TO DIMINISH LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
TONIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR A RECOVERY OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 130W AND 135W BY
EARLY TUE. PERSISTENT TRADE WIND FLOW ALONG WITH COMPONENTS OF
NW SWELL ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 8 TO 11 FT SEAS NOTED IN EARLIER
ALTIMETER IMAGERY...COVERING A LARGE AREA FROM 06N TO 20N W OF
115W. THE WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN BY WED AND THE SWELL SUBSIDES AND
SHRINKS IN AREA TO THE WEST AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. WAVE GUIDANCE INDICATES LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA N OF 28N W OF 135W BY TUE NIGHT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271608
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON APR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N89W TO 12N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR 07N115W
1007 MB TO 02N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ALSO IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS
BETWEEN 105W AND 120W. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM FROM 06.5N TO 08.5N BETWEEN 83W AND
87W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...

TROUGHING ALOFT ASSOCIATED AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO
INTO W TEXAS IS SUPPORTING RELATIVELY LOW PRES OVER NW MEXICO
INCLUDING BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE MAINLY 20 KT NW FLOW OFF THE COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TO THE SOUTH OF 30N...BETWEEN 1024 MB
HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 33N130W AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER NW
MEXICO. THESE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SINCE LAST NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRES SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...AND THE RIDGE TO
THE WEST WEAKENS. RESIDUAL NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED FROM THE
STRONG WINDS PERSIST HOWEVER...WITH 8 TO 10 FT SEAS REACHING AS
FAR SOUTH AS 24N OFF BAJA. VARIOUS WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THESE SEAS SUBSIDING  TO LESS THAN 8 FT
OVERNIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH...THE TROPICAL EPAC IS STARTING TO
TRANSITION TO ITS LATE SPRING/SUMMER PATTERN...WITH SIGNIFICANT
MID LATITUDE INFLUENCES. WHAT WAS A COHERENT ITCZ IS BREAKING
DOWN INTO A LARGE AREA OF EAST TO WEST ORIENTED  TROUGHING ALONG
ROUGHLY 10N...ALTHOUGH WITH FAIRLY WEAK AND INCONSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW. A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING FROM THE NW...PROVIDING
SUPPORT TO A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION AROUND
A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 06N116W. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THIS LOW PRES WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH 48 TO 72 HOURS
AS IT DRIFTS W...AND AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFT
EAST. BY THURSDAY...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
ANOTHER 1007 MB LOW PRES SE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIKELY
INFLUENCED BY THE SAME MID/UPPER DYNAMICS APPROACHING THE AREA
CURRENTLY. ALONG WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER NE MEXICO...THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT AND SUPPORT POSSIBLY GALE
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY WED NIGHT AND THU
MORNING. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE TROPICAL EPAC
WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK UNTIL AFTER
MID WEEK WHEN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10
FT MOVES ACROSS THE EQUATOR IN THE WATERS W OF THE GALAPAGOS.

W OF 110W...

A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS NOTED ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
TO THE NORTH OF 25N...WEAKENING THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING AHEAD OF
IT TO INCLUDE A 1024 MB HIGH PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR 33N130W.
THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW PERSISTENT FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW FARTHER
SOUTH TO DIMINISH LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
TONIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR A RECOVERY OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 130W AND 135W BY
EARLY TUE. PERSISTENT TRADE WIND FLOW ALONG WITH COMPONENTS OF
NW SWELL ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 8 TO 11 FT SEAS NOTED IN EARLIER
ALTIMETER IMAGERY...COVERING A LARGE AREA FROM 06N TO 20N W OF
115W. THE WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN BY WED AND THE SWELL SUBSIDES AND
SHRINKS IN AREA TO THE WEST AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. WAVE GUIDANCE INDICATES LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA N OF 28N W OF 135W BY TUE NIGHT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271608
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON APR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N89W TO 12N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR 07N115W
1007 MB TO 02N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ALSO IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS
BETWEEN 105W AND 120W. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM FROM 06.5N TO 08.5N BETWEEN 83W AND
87W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...

TROUGHING ALOFT ASSOCIATED AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO
INTO W TEXAS IS SUPPORTING RELATIVELY LOW PRES OVER NW MEXICO
INCLUDING BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE MAINLY 20 KT NW FLOW OFF THE COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TO THE SOUTH OF 30N...BETWEEN 1024 MB
HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 33N130W AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER NW
MEXICO. THESE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SINCE LAST NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRES SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...AND THE RIDGE TO
THE WEST WEAKENS. RESIDUAL NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED FROM THE
STRONG WINDS PERSIST HOWEVER...WITH 8 TO 10 FT SEAS REACHING AS
FAR SOUTH AS 24N OFF BAJA. VARIOUS WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THESE SEAS SUBSIDING  TO LESS THAN 8 FT
OVERNIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH...THE TROPICAL EPAC IS STARTING TO
TRANSITION TO ITS LATE SPRING/SUMMER PATTERN...WITH SIGNIFICANT
MID LATITUDE INFLUENCES. WHAT WAS A COHERENT ITCZ IS BREAKING
DOWN INTO A LARGE AREA OF EAST TO WEST ORIENTED  TROUGHING ALONG
ROUGHLY 10N...ALTHOUGH WITH FAIRLY WEAK AND INCONSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW. A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING FROM THE NW...PROVIDING
SUPPORT TO A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION AROUND
A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 06N116W. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THIS LOW PRES WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH 48 TO 72 HOURS
AS IT DRIFTS W...AND AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFT
EAST. BY THURSDAY...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
ANOTHER 1007 MB LOW PRES SE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIKELY
INFLUENCED BY THE SAME MID/UPPER DYNAMICS APPROACHING THE AREA
CURRENTLY. ALONG WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER NE MEXICO...THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT AND SUPPORT POSSIBLY GALE
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY WED NIGHT AND THU
MORNING. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE TROPICAL EPAC
WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK UNTIL AFTER
MID WEEK WHEN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10
FT MOVES ACROSS THE EQUATOR IN THE WATERS W OF THE GALAPAGOS.

W OF 110W...

A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS NOTED ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
TO THE NORTH OF 25N...WEAKENING THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING AHEAD OF
IT TO INCLUDE A 1024 MB HIGH PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR 33N130W.
THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW PERSISTENT FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW FARTHER
SOUTH TO DIMINISH LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
TONIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR A RECOVERY OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 130W AND 135W BY
EARLY TUE. PERSISTENT TRADE WIND FLOW ALONG WITH COMPONENTS OF
NW SWELL ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 8 TO 11 FT SEAS NOTED IN EARLIER
ALTIMETER IMAGERY...COVERING A LARGE AREA FROM 06N TO 20N W OF
115W. THE WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN BY WED AND THE SWELL SUBSIDES AND
SHRINKS IN AREA TO THE WEST AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. WAVE GUIDANCE INDICATES LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA N OF 28N W OF 135W BY TUE NIGHT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 271100
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE W ATLC N OF 30N BETWEEN
56W AND 59W UNTIL 27/1200 UTC TODAY. THIS GALE WARNING IS A
RESULT OF A 991 MB LOW NEAR 36N60W WITH THE GALE FORCE WINDS
DIPPING JUST S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS FROM THE AFRICA INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N16W AND EXTENDS ALONG 8N16W TO 5N19W WHERE
THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N26W 2N36W THE S OF THE EQUATOR AND
INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 43W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 8W-18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-4N E OF 6W TO ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND BETWEEN 14W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
CURRENTLY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN DOMINATES
THE GULF WATERS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND OVER THE N GULF. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER
THE N GULF IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 28N92W TO
ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY. NESDIS LATEST HAZARD MAPPING
SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FIRES OVER S MEXICO
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE SPREADING SMOKE ACROSS ALL OF THE
GULF EXCEPT THE SE SECTOR INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS JUST INLAND ACROSS THE N GULF COAST IS
EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE N GULF THIS MORNING AND STALL ALONG 28N
BEFORE RETREATING AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY TUE AND A SECOND COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW NEAR BILOXI MISSISSIPPI TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TUE. THE FRONT WILL THEN PASS SE OF THE
AREA WED NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED JUST INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W
ATLC. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 16N82W TO 11N76W. EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF PANAMA W OF 81W AND ALL OF COSTA RICA. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING. NESDIS LATEST HAZARD MAPPING SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FIRES OVER HONDURAS AND THE YUCATAN ARE
SPREADING SMOKE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PULSE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS OFFSHORE OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH WED MORNING.
FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SE AND S/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BY WED. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING.
DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING COULD CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS JUST
N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 70W-81W AND COUPLED WITH
DIFFLUNCE ALOFT ARE GENERATING HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 70W-76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 28N-30N W OF 76W TO
ACROSS FLORIDA AND FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 62W-70W. AN UPPER TROUGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N55W TO 27N55W SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS 32N56W TO 28N60W WITH SCATTERED TO
HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGHS ARE MOVING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND ENHANCING CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF
26N BETWEEN 40W-52W. THE ATLC IS DOMINATED AT THE SURFACE BY A
LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E ATLC BY A 1022 MB HIGH
NEAR 33N23W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH A 1023 MB HIGH
NEAR 28N32W ALONG 24N39W 20N55WTO E CUBA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WILL PASS INTO W ATLC TODAY AND
STRETCH ALONG 26N BY EARLY TUE. THE E PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL
STALL FROM 32N59W ALONG 26N65W TUE NIGHT WHILE THE W PORTION
LIFTS N ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST AS A WARM FRONT IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO CENTRAL ATLC LATE WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 271100
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE W ATLC N OF 30N BETWEEN
56W AND 59W UNTIL 27/1200 UTC TODAY. THIS GALE WARNING IS A
RESULT OF A 991 MB LOW NEAR 36N60W WITH THE GALE FORCE WINDS
DIPPING JUST S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS FROM THE AFRICA INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N16W AND EXTENDS ALONG 8N16W TO 5N19W WHERE
THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N26W 2N36W THE S OF THE EQUATOR AND
INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 43W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 8W-18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-4N E OF 6W TO ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND BETWEEN 14W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
CURRENTLY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN DOMINATES
THE GULF WATERS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND OVER THE N GULF. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER
THE N GULF IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 28N92W TO
ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY. NESDIS LATEST HAZARD MAPPING
SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FIRES OVER S MEXICO
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE SPREADING SMOKE ACROSS ALL OF THE
GULF EXCEPT THE SE SECTOR INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS JUST INLAND ACROSS THE N GULF COAST IS
EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE N GULF THIS MORNING AND STALL ALONG 28N
BEFORE RETREATING AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY TUE AND A SECOND COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW NEAR BILOXI MISSISSIPPI TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TUE. THE FRONT WILL THEN PASS SE OF THE
AREA WED NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED JUST INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W
ATLC. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 16N82W TO 11N76W. EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF PANAMA W OF 81W AND ALL OF COSTA RICA. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING. NESDIS LATEST HAZARD MAPPING SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FIRES OVER HONDURAS AND THE YUCATAN ARE
SPREADING SMOKE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PULSE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS OFFSHORE OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH WED MORNING.
FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SE AND S/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BY WED. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING.
DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING COULD CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS JUST
N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 70W-81W AND COUPLED WITH
DIFFLUNCE ALOFT ARE GENERATING HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 70W-76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 28N-30N W OF 76W TO
ACROSS FLORIDA AND FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 62W-70W. AN UPPER TROUGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N55W TO 27N55W SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS 32N56W TO 28N60W WITH SCATTERED TO
HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGHS ARE MOVING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND ENHANCING CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF
26N BETWEEN 40W-52W. THE ATLC IS DOMINATED AT THE SURFACE BY A
LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E ATLC BY A 1022 MB HIGH
NEAR 33N23W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH A 1023 MB HIGH
NEAR 28N32W ALONG 24N39W 20N55WTO E CUBA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WILL PASS INTO W ATLC TODAY AND
STRETCH ALONG 26N BY EARLY TUE. THE E PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL
STALL FROM 32N59W ALONG 26N65W TUE NIGHT WHILE THE W PORTION
LIFTS N ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST AS A WARM FRONT IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO CENTRAL ATLC LATE WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 271100
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE W ATLC N OF 30N BETWEEN
56W AND 59W UNTIL 27/1200 UTC TODAY. THIS GALE WARNING IS A
RESULT OF A 991 MB LOW NEAR 36N60W WITH THE GALE FORCE WINDS
DIPPING JUST S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS FROM THE AFRICA INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N16W AND EXTENDS ALONG 8N16W TO 5N19W WHERE
THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N26W 2N36W THE S OF THE EQUATOR AND
INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 43W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 8W-18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-4N E OF 6W TO ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND BETWEEN 14W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
CURRENTLY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN DOMINATES
THE GULF WATERS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND OVER THE N GULF. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER
THE N GULF IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 28N92W TO
ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY. NESDIS LATEST HAZARD MAPPING
SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FIRES OVER S MEXICO
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE SPREADING SMOKE ACROSS ALL OF THE
GULF EXCEPT THE SE SECTOR INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS JUST INLAND ACROSS THE N GULF COAST IS
EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE N GULF THIS MORNING AND STALL ALONG 28N
BEFORE RETREATING AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY TUE AND A SECOND COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW NEAR BILOXI MISSISSIPPI TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TUE. THE FRONT WILL THEN PASS SE OF THE
AREA WED NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED JUST INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W
ATLC. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 16N82W TO 11N76W. EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF PANAMA W OF 81W AND ALL OF COSTA RICA. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING. NESDIS LATEST HAZARD MAPPING SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FIRES OVER HONDURAS AND THE YUCATAN ARE
SPREADING SMOKE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PULSE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS OFFSHORE OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH WED MORNING.
FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SE AND S/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BY WED. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING.
DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING COULD CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS JUST
N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 70W-81W AND COUPLED WITH
DIFFLUNCE ALOFT ARE GENERATING HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 70W-76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 28N-30N W OF 76W TO
ACROSS FLORIDA AND FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 62W-70W. AN UPPER TROUGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N55W TO 27N55W SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS 32N56W TO 28N60W WITH SCATTERED TO
HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGHS ARE MOVING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND ENHANCING CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF
26N BETWEEN 40W-52W. THE ATLC IS DOMINATED AT THE SURFACE BY A
LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E ATLC BY A 1022 MB HIGH
NEAR 33N23W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH A 1023 MB HIGH
NEAR 28N32W ALONG 24N39W 20N55WTO E CUBA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WILL PASS INTO W ATLC TODAY AND
STRETCH ALONG 26N BY EARLY TUE. THE E PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL
STALL FROM 32N59W ALONG 26N65W TUE NIGHT WHILE THE W PORTION
LIFTS N ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST AS A WARM FRONT IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO CENTRAL ATLC LATE WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 271100
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE W ATLC N OF 30N BETWEEN
56W AND 59W UNTIL 27/1200 UTC TODAY. THIS GALE WARNING IS A
RESULT OF A 991 MB LOW NEAR 36N60W WITH THE GALE FORCE WINDS
DIPPING JUST S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS FROM THE AFRICA INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N16W AND EXTENDS ALONG 8N16W TO 5N19W WHERE
THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N26W 2N36W THE S OF THE EQUATOR AND
INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 43W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 8W-18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-4N E OF 6W TO ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND BETWEEN 14W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
CURRENTLY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN DOMINATES
THE GULF WATERS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND OVER THE N GULF. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER
THE N GULF IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 28N92W TO
ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY. NESDIS LATEST HAZARD MAPPING
SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FIRES OVER S MEXICO
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE SPREADING SMOKE ACROSS ALL OF THE
GULF EXCEPT THE SE SECTOR INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS JUST INLAND ACROSS THE N GULF COAST IS
EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE N GULF THIS MORNING AND STALL ALONG 28N
BEFORE RETREATING AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY TUE AND A SECOND COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW NEAR BILOXI MISSISSIPPI TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TUE. THE FRONT WILL THEN PASS SE OF THE
AREA WED NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED JUST INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W
ATLC. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 16N82W TO 11N76W. EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF PANAMA W OF 81W AND ALL OF COSTA RICA. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING. NESDIS LATEST HAZARD MAPPING SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FIRES OVER HONDURAS AND THE YUCATAN ARE
SPREADING SMOKE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PULSE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS OFFSHORE OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH WED MORNING.
FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SE AND S/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BY WED. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING.
DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING COULD CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS JUST
N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 70W-81W AND COUPLED WITH
DIFFLUNCE ALOFT ARE GENERATING HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 70W-76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 28N-30N W OF 76W TO
ACROSS FLORIDA AND FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 62W-70W. AN UPPER TROUGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N55W TO 27N55W SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS 32N56W TO 28N60W WITH SCATTERED TO
HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGHS ARE MOVING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND ENHANCING CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF
26N BETWEEN 40W-52W. THE ATLC IS DOMINATED AT THE SURFACE BY A
LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E ATLC BY A 1022 MB HIGH
NEAR 33N23W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH A 1023 MB HIGH
NEAR 28N32W ALONG 24N39W 20N55WTO E CUBA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WILL PASS INTO W ATLC TODAY AND
STRETCH ALONG 26N BY EARLY TUE. THE E PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL
STALL FROM 32N59W ALONG 26N65W TUE NIGHT WHILE THE W PORTION
LIFTS N ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST AS A WARM FRONT IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO CENTRAL ATLC LATE WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270940
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON APR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N93W TO 09N108W TO 08N116W TO 02N128W
TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
04N TO 07N BETWEEN 96W AND 100W...AND FROM 03N TO 12N BETWEEN
111W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM NEW MEXICO ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA
TO 21N127W. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS W OF THE TROUGH AND A WIDE
SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED NE E OF THE TROUGH
FROM ACTIVE CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR THE ITCZ.

STRONG NW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT W OF
SO-CAL EXTEND INTO DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W AND
122W...PRODUCING FRESH NW SWELL OF 8-11 FT REACHING TO 24N W OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATER
TODAY AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT EARLY TUE MORNING.

1026 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N132W EXTENDS A RIDGE TO
AROUND 17N W OF 119W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGE AND
LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 127W AND 134W. THE GRADIENT WILL
SLACKEN THROUGH 48 HOURS...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH
IN THIS AREA THROUGH WED.

NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM A LOW NEAR
38N142W TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL REACH FAR NW PART OF THE
AREA TUE...THEN QUICKLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.

GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING
WITH SEAS RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 11-12 FT.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXNT20 KNHC 270541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE W ATLC N OF 30N BETWEEN 59W
AND 63W UNTIL EARLY MORNING MON. THIS GALE WARNING IS A RESULT
OF A 991 MB LOW NEAR 36N60W WITH THE GALE FORCE WINDS DIPPING
JUST S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS FROM THE AFRICA INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W AND EXTENDS TO 4N18W WHERE THE ITCZ
CONTINUES ALONG 2N27W 1N34W THE S OF THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-8N E OF 16W TO THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N E OF 13W TO THE COAST
OF LIBERIA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
2N-6N BETWEEN 15W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
CURRENTLY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN DOMINATES
THE GULF WATERS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND OVER THE N GULF. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER
THE N GULF IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 25N96W ALONG
28N88W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY. FIRES OVER S MEXICO AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE SPREADING SMOKE ACROSS THE SW AND
S/CENTRAL GULF. THIS AREA OF SMOKE IS SHIFTING E TOWARD THE SE
GULF. A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE CONUS IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT S INTO THE N GULF EARLY MON THEN RETREAT N AGAIN TUE. A
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO IS SUPPORTING A STRONG FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO THE ENTER THE GULF TUE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
PRECEDING IT ON MON. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE GULF
THROUGH WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE W ATLC. AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS ARE WINDING DOWN ACROSS
CUBA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING ISOLATED SHOWERS
INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER
TONIGHT. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED SMOKE IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT OFFSHORE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA THEN STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SE AND S/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BY WED. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED NIGHT/EARLY THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND E
HAITI TONIGHT. DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING
COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT IS GENERATING
SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
60/90 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO
29N74W. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGHS ARE MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL ATLC AND ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N BETWEEN 36W-62W. THE
ATLC IS DOMINATED AT THE SURFACE BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE E ATLC BY A PAIR OF 1024 MB HIGHS NEAR 33N24W
AND 26N33W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 26N33W ALONG
21N46W TO 21N70W. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
WILL SHIFT S INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING EXTENDING FROM
31N63W TO 27N68W TO 25N75W EARLY TUE REACHING FROM 31N59W TO
26N66W WITH A WARM FRONT FROM 26N66W TO BEYOND 31N78W EARLY WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 270541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE W ATLC N OF 30N BETWEEN 59W
AND 63W UNTIL EARLY MORNING MON. THIS GALE WARNING IS A RESULT
OF A 991 MB LOW NEAR 36N60W WITH THE GALE FORCE WINDS DIPPING
JUST S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS FROM THE AFRICA INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W AND EXTENDS TO 4N18W WHERE THE ITCZ
CONTINUES ALONG 2N27W 1N34W THE S OF THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-8N E OF 16W TO THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N E OF 13W TO THE COAST
OF LIBERIA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
2N-6N BETWEEN 15W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
CURRENTLY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN DOMINATES
THE GULF WATERS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND OVER THE N GULF. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER
THE N GULF IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 25N96W ALONG
28N88W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY. FIRES OVER S MEXICO AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE SPREADING SMOKE ACROSS THE SW AND
S/CENTRAL GULF. THIS AREA OF SMOKE IS SHIFTING E TOWARD THE SE
GULF. A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE CONUS IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT S INTO THE N GULF EARLY MON THEN RETREAT N AGAIN TUE. A
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO IS SUPPORTING A STRONG FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO THE ENTER THE GULF TUE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
PRECEDING IT ON MON. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE GULF
THROUGH WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE W ATLC. AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS ARE WINDING DOWN ACROSS
CUBA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING ISOLATED SHOWERS
INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER
TONIGHT. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED SMOKE IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT OFFSHORE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA THEN STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SE AND S/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BY WED. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED NIGHT/EARLY THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND E
HAITI TONIGHT. DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING
COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT IS GENERATING
SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
60/90 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO
29N74W. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGHS ARE MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL ATLC AND ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N BETWEEN 36W-62W. THE
ATLC IS DOMINATED AT THE SURFACE BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE E ATLC BY A PAIR OF 1024 MB HIGHS NEAR 33N24W
AND 26N33W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 26N33W ALONG
21N46W TO 21N70W. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
WILL SHIFT S INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING EXTENDING FROM
31N63W TO 27N68W TO 25N75W EARLY TUE REACHING FROM 31N59W TO
26N66W WITH A WARM FRONT FROM 26N66W TO BEYOND 31N78W EARLY WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 270541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE W ATLC N OF 30N BETWEEN 59W
AND 63W UNTIL EARLY MORNING MON. THIS GALE WARNING IS A RESULT
OF A 991 MB LOW NEAR 36N60W WITH THE GALE FORCE WINDS DIPPING
JUST S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS FROM THE AFRICA INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W AND EXTENDS TO 4N18W WHERE THE ITCZ
CONTINUES ALONG 2N27W 1N34W THE S OF THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-8N E OF 16W TO THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N E OF 13W TO THE COAST
OF LIBERIA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
2N-6N BETWEEN 15W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
CURRENTLY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN DOMINATES
THE GULF WATERS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND OVER THE N GULF. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER
THE N GULF IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 25N96W ALONG
28N88W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY. FIRES OVER S MEXICO AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE SPREADING SMOKE ACROSS THE SW AND
S/CENTRAL GULF. THIS AREA OF SMOKE IS SHIFTING E TOWARD THE SE
GULF. A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE CONUS IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT S INTO THE N GULF EARLY MON THEN RETREAT N AGAIN TUE. A
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO IS SUPPORTING A STRONG FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO THE ENTER THE GULF TUE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
PRECEDING IT ON MON. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE GULF
THROUGH WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE W ATLC. AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS ARE WINDING DOWN ACROSS
CUBA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING ISOLATED SHOWERS
INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER
TONIGHT. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED SMOKE IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT OFFSHORE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA THEN STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SE AND S/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BY WED. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED NIGHT/EARLY THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND E
HAITI TONIGHT. DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING
COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT IS GENERATING
SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
60/90 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO
29N74W. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGHS ARE MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL ATLC AND ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N BETWEEN 36W-62W. THE
ATLC IS DOMINATED AT THE SURFACE BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE E ATLC BY A PAIR OF 1024 MB HIGHS NEAR 33N24W
AND 26N33W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 26N33W ALONG
21N46W TO 21N70W. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
WILL SHIFT S INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING EXTENDING FROM
31N63W TO 27N68W TO 25N75W EARLY TUE REACHING FROM 31N59W TO
26N66W WITH A WARM FRONT FROM 26N66W TO BEYOND 31N78W EARLY WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270233
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON APR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N94W TO 06N108W TO 08N116W TO
01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W...FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN
100W AND 103W...FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 98W AND 106W...FROM 02N
TO 06N BETWEEN 106W AND 111W...WITHIN 300 NM NE OF A LINE FROM
01N114W TO 07N120W...AND ALSO WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 126W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA SW TO
26N115W TO A BASE NEAR 21N130W. OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT
REMAINS TO THE W OF THE TROUGHING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE W-NW ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF 130W. A 660 NM SWATH OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE NE AWAY FROM
CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN THE ITCZ ZONE.

AT THE SURFACE...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE OFFSHORE
OF THE CALIFORNIA CENTRAL COAST AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE A
GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AROUND AND OFFSHORE OF POINT
CONCEPTION. AN OUTER AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FAR NORTHERN
DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 118W AND 122W. FRESH TO
STRONG NW-N WINDS ARE ALSO BLOWING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE WINDS
HAVE GENERATED FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL OF 8-11 FT REACHING TO
25N W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TO 20 KT OR LESS ON MON AND THEN THE ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY TUE MORNING.

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 35N131W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE FROM THE HIGH THROUGH 26N123W TO
15N102W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGING AND N OF THE
LOWER PRESSURE VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING AN
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 122W AND
132W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN THROUGH 24-48 HOURS
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON MON.

A PAIR OF WEAK TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH THE EASTERN
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 10N100W TO 05N100W...AND THE WESTERN
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 10N115W TO 04N116W. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE.

E OF 110W...EARLY AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT
WIND CONDITIONS RANGE FROM A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE AND ARE
ACCOMPANIED BY 3 TO 6 FT SEAS ACCORDING TO ALTIMETER PASSES.

$$
LEWITSKY


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270233
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON APR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N94W TO 06N108W TO 08N116W TO
01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W...FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN
100W AND 103W...FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 98W AND 106W...FROM 02N
TO 06N BETWEEN 106W AND 111W...WITHIN 300 NM NE OF A LINE FROM
01N114W TO 07N120W...AND ALSO WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 126W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA SW TO
26N115W TO A BASE NEAR 21N130W. OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT
REMAINS TO THE W OF THE TROUGHING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE W-NW ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF 130W. A 660 NM SWATH OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE NE AWAY FROM
CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN THE ITCZ ZONE.

AT THE SURFACE...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE OFFSHORE
OF THE CALIFORNIA CENTRAL COAST AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE A
GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AROUND AND OFFSHORE OF POINT
CONCEPTION. AN OUTER AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FAR NORTHERN
DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 118W AND 122W. FRESH TO
STRONG NW-N WINDS ARE ALSO BLOWING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE WINDS
HAVE GENERATED FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL OF 8-11 FT REACHING TO
25N W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TO 20 KT OR LESS ON MON AND THEN THE ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY TUE MORNING.

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 35N131W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE FROM THE HIGH THROUGH 26N123W TO
15N102W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGING AND N OF THE
LOWER PRESSURE VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING AN
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 122W AND
132W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN THROUGH 24-48 HOURS
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON MON.

A PAIR OF WEAK TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH THE EASTERN
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 10N100W TO 05N100W...AND THE WESTERN
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 10N115W TO 04N116W. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE.

E OF 110W...EARLY AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT
WIND CONDITIONS RANGE FROM A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE AND ARE
ACCOMPANIED BY 3 TO 6 FT SEAS ACCORDING TO ALTIMETER PASSES.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270233
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON APR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N94W TO 06N108W TO 08N116W TO
01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W...FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN
100W AND 103W...FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 98W AND 106W...FROM 02N
TO 06N BETWEEN 106W AND 111W...WITHIN 300 NM NE OF A LINE FROM
01N114W TO 07N120W...AND ALSO WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 126W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA SW TO
26N115W TO A BASE NEAR 21N130W. OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT
REMAINS TO THE W OF THE TROUGHING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE W-NW ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF 130W. A 660 NM SWATH OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE NE AWAY FROM
CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN THE ITCZ ZONE.

AT THE SURFACE...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE OFFSHORE
OF THE CALIFORNIA CENTRAL COAST AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE A
GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AROUND AND OFFSHORE OF POINT
CONCEPTION. AN OUTER AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FAR NORTHERN
DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 118W AND 122W. FRESH TO
STRONG NW-N WINDS ARE ALSO BLOWING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE WINDS
HAVE GENERATED FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL OF 8-11 FT REACHING TO
25N W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TO 20 KT OR LESS ON MON AND THEN THE ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY TUE MORNING.

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 35N131W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE FROM THE HIGH THROUGH 26N123W TO
15N102W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGING AND N OF THE
LOWER PRESSURE VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING AN
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 122W AND
132W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN THROUGH 24-48 HOURS
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON MON.

A PAIR OF WEAK TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH THE EASTERN
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 10N100W TO 05N100W...AND THE WESTERN
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 10N115W TO 04N116W. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE.

E OF 110W...EARLY AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT
WIND CONDITIONS RANGE FROM A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE AND ARE
ACCOMPANIED BY 3 TO 6 FT SEAS ACCORDING TO ALTIMETER PASSES.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270233
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON APR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N94W TO 06N108W TO 08N116W TO
01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W...FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN
100W AND 103W...FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 98W AND 106W...FROM 02N
TO 06N BETWEEN 106W AND 111W...WITHIN 300 NM NE OF A LINE FROM
01N114W TO 07N120W...AND ALSO WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 126W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA SW TO
26N115W TO A BASE NEAR 21N130W. OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT
REMAINS TO THE W OF THE TROUGHING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE W-NW ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF 130W. A 660 NM SWATH OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE NE AWAY FROM
CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN THE ITCZ ZONE.

AT THE SURFACE...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE OFFSHORE
OF THE CALIFORNIA CENTRAL COAST AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE A
GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AROUND AND OFFSHORE OF POINT
CONCEPTION. AN OUTER AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FAR NORTHERN
DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 118W AND 122W. FRESH TO
STRONG NW-N WINDS ARE ALSO BLOWING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE WINDS
HAVE GENERATED FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL OF 8-11 FT REACHING TO
25N W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TO 20 KT OR LESS ON MON AND THEN THE ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY TUE MORNING.

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 35N131W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE FROM THE HIGH THROUGH 26N123W TO
15N102W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGING AND N OF THE
LOWER PRESSURE VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING AN
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 122W AND
132W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN THROUGH 24-48 HOURS
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON MON.

A PAIR OF WEAK TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH THE EASTERN
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 10N100W TO 05N100W...AND THE WESTERN
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 10N115W TO 04N116W. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE.

E OF 110W...EARLY AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT
WIND CONDITIONS RANGE FROM A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE AND ARE
ACCOMPANIED BY 3 TO 6 FT SEAS ACCORDING TO ALTIMETER PASSES.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270233
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON APR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N94W TO 06N108W TO 08N116W TO
01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W...FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN
100W AND 103W...FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 98W AND 106W...FROM 02N
TO 06N BETWEEN 106W AND 111W...WITHIN 300 NM NE OF A LINE FROM
01N114W TO 07N120W...AND ALSO WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 126W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA SW TO
26N115W TO A BASE NEAR 21N130W. OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT
REMAINS TO THE W OF THE TROUGHING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE W-NW ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF 130W. A 660 NM SWATH OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE NE AWAY FROM
CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN THE ITCZ ZONE.

AT THE SURFACE...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE OFFSHORE
OF THE CALIFORNIA CENTRAL COAST AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE A
GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AROUND AND OFFSHORE OF POINT
CONCEPTION. AN OUTER AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FAR NORTHERN
DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 118W AND 122W. FRESH TO
STRONG NW-N WINDS ARE ALSO BLOWING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE WINDS
HAVE GENERATED FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL OF 8-11 FT REACHING TO
25N W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TO 20 KT OR LESS ON MON AND THEN THE ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY TUE MORNING.

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 35N131W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE FROM THE HIGH THROUGH 26N123W TO
15N102W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGING AND N OF THE
LOWER PRESSURE VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING AN
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 122W AND
132W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN THROUGH 24-48 HOURS
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON MON.

A PAIR OF WEAK TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH THE EASTERN
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 10N100W TO 05N100W...AND THE WESTERN
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 10N115W TO 04N116W. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE.

E OF 110W...EARLY AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT
WIND CONDITIONS RANGE FROM A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE AND ARE
ACCOMPANIED BY 3 TO 6 FT SEAS ACCORDING TO ALTIMETER PASSES.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXNT20 KNHC 262339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 7N12W TO
5N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
5N18W TO 2N30W TO 1N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
0N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N
BETWEEN 18W-23W...FROM 0N-3N BETWEEN 27W-32W...AND FROM 2N-3S
BETWEEN 46W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 999 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 33N101W. A COLD
FRONT IS FURTHER NW MOVING TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEXICO.  10 KT SE
SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W WHILE 10 KT SW WINDS
ARE OVER THE E GULF. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N MOVING E.  SMOKE
AND HAZE IS SEEN HOWEVER OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF S OF 24N BETWEEN 86W-94W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE NW GULF FROM
HOUSTON TEXAS TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 6N72W. 10-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS S OF CUBA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER NW
VENEZUELA...AND N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
..PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF COLOMBIA AT 13N74W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HEATING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR REMAINS ALOFT
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N66W TO 28N69W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NE OF THE TROUGH FROM 30N-33N
BETWEEN 60W-65W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
33N26W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 20N50W. A 1016
MB LOW IS EMBEDDED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N25W. OF NOTE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
BETWEEN 60W-80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN
45W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC BETWEEN
30W-45W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E
OF 30W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE W
ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 31N73W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 262339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 7N12W TO
5N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
5N18W TO 2N30W TO 1N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
0N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N
BETWEEN 18W-23W...FROM 0N-3N BETWEEN 27W-32W...AND FROM 2N-3S
BETWEEN 46W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 999 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 33N101W. A COLD
FRONT IS FURTHER NW MOVING TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEXICO.  10 KT SE
SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W WHILE 10 KT SW WINDS
ARE OVER THE E GULF. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N MOVING E.  SMOKE
AND HAZE IS SEEN HOWEVER OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF S OF 24N BETWEEN 86W-94W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE NW GULF FROM
HOUSTON TEXAS TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 6N72W. 10-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS S OF CUBA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER NW
VENEZUELA...AND N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
..PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF COLOMBIA AT 13N74W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HEATING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR REMAINS ALOFT
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N66W TO 28N69W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NE OF THE TROUGH FROM 30N-33N
BETWEEN 60W-65W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
33N26W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 20N50W. A 1016
MB LOW IS EMBEDDED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N25W. OF NOTE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
BETWEEN 60W-80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN
45W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC BETWEEN
30W-45W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E
OF 30W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE W
ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 31N73W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262125
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN APR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N94W TO LOW PRES NEAR 07N100W TO
07N114W THEN RESUMES FROM 07N117W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 92W AND 95W...WITHIN 150
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 103W...WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 114W...WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
116W AND 124W...AND ALSO S OF 05N BETWEEN 124W AND 129W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SW TO
26N117W TO A BASE NEAR 22N130W. OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT
REMAINS TO THE W OF THE TROUGHING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE W-NW ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF 130W. A 600 NM SWATH OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE NE AWAY FROM
CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN THE ITCZ ZONE. THE WIND FIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MONDAY
WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THEREAFTER.

AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANTS OF A RECENTLY DISSIPATED COLD
FRONT EXTEND FROM 31N111W TO 27N123W TO 32N127W. GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT
OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA CENTRAL COAST AROUND POINT CONCEPTION
AND S-SW OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS WITH OUTER ASSOCIATED FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MANAGING TO SPILL SOUTHWARD TO 29N
BETWEEN 117W AND 122W. FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL SURROUNDS THESE
WINDS WITH 8-11 FT N OF 26N W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 126W. THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON MON AND THEN THE
ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY TUE
MORNING.

A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 33N133W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE FROM THE HIGH TO 16N105W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGING AND N OF THE LOWER PRESSURE VALUES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 122W AND 132W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKED THROUGH 48 HOURS WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON MON.

A PAIR OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS ARE EMBEDDED OR NEAR THE ITCZ WITH
A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 07N100W AND A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 07N127W.
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE.
THE EASTERN LOW WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE
THE WESTERN LOW MOVES TO 06N132W BY 24 HOURS WHILE WEAKENING
TO 1010 MB.

E OF 110W...EARLY AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT
WINDS CONDITIONS RANGE FROM A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE AND ARE
ACCOMPANIED BY 3 TO 6 FT SEAS ACCORDING TO ALTIMETER PASSES.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262125
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN APR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N94W TO LOW PRES NEAR 07N100W TO
07N114W THEN RESUMES FROM 07N117W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 92W AND 95W...WITHIN 150
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 103W...WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 114W...WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
116W AND 124W...AND ALSO S OF 05N BETWEEN 124W AND 129W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SW TO
26N117W TO A BASE NEAR 22N130W. OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT
REMAINS TO THE W OF THE TROUGHING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE W-NW ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF 130W. A 600 NM SWATH OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE NE AWAY FROM
CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN THE ITCZ ZONE. THE WIND FIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MONDAY
WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THEREAFTER.

AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANTS OF A RECENTLY DISSIPATED COLD
FRONT EXTEND FROM 31N111W TO 27N123W TO 32N127W. GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT
OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA CENTRAL COAST AROUND POINT CONCEPTION
AND S-SW OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS WITH OUTER ASSOCIATED FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MANAGING TO SPILL SOUTHWARD TO 29N
BETWEEN 117W AND 122W. FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL SURROUNDS THESE
WINDS WITH 8-11 FT N OF 26N W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 126W. THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON MON AND THEN THE
ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY TUE
MORNING.

A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 33N133W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE FROM THE HIGH TO 16N105W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGING AND N OF THE LOWER PRESSURE VALUES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 122W AND 132W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKED THROUGH 48 HOURS WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON MON.

A PAIR OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS ARE EMBEDDED OR NEAR THE ITCZ WITH
A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 07N100W AND A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 07N127W.
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE.
THE EASTERN LOW WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE
THE WESTERN LOW MOVES TO 06N132W BY 24 HOURS WHILE WEAKENING
TO 1010 MB.

E OF 110W...EARLY AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT
WINDS CONDITIONS RANGE FROM A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE AND ARE
ACCOMPANIED BY 3 TO 6 FT SEAS ACCORDING TO ALTIMETER PASSES.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262125
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN APR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N94W TO LOW PRES NEAR 07N100W TO
07N114W THEN RESUMES FROM 07N117W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 92W AND 95W...WITHIN 150
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 103W...WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 114W...WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
116W AND 124W...AND ALSO S OF 05N BETWEEN 124W AND 129W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SW TO
26N117W TO A BASE NEAR 22N130W. OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT
REMAINS TO THE W OF THE TROUGHING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE W-NW ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF 130W. A 600 NM SWATH OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE NE AWAY FROM
CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN THE ITCZ ZONE. THE WIND FIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MONDAY
WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THEREAFTER.

AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANTS OF A RECENTLY DISSIPATED COLD
FRONT EXTEND FROM 31N111W TO 27N123W TO 32N127W. GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT
OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA CENTRAL COAST AROUND POINT CONCEPTION
AND S-SW OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS WITH OUTER ASSOCIATED FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MANAGING TO SPILL SOUTHWARD TO 29N
BETWEEN 117W AND 122W. FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL SURROUNDS THESE
WINDS WITH 8-11 FT N OF 26N W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 126W. THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON MON AND THEN THE
ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY TUE
MORNING.

A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 33N133W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE FROM THE HIGH TO 16N105W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGING AND N OF THE LOWER PRESSURE VALUES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 122W AND 132W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKED THROUGH 48 HOURS WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON MON.

A PAIR OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS ARE EMBEDDED OR NEAR THE ITCZ WITH
A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 07N100W AND A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 07N127W.
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE.
THE EASTERN LOW WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE
THE WESTERN LOW MOVES TO 06N132W BY 24 HOURS WHILE WEAKENING
TO 1010 MB.

E OF 110W...EARLY AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT
WINDS CONDITIONS RANGE FROM A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE AND ARE
ACCOMPANIED BY 3 TO 6 FT SEAS ACCORDING TO ALTIMETER PASSES.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262125
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN APR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N94W TO LOW PRES NEAR 07N100W TO
07N114W THEN RESUMES FROM 07N117W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 92W AND 95W...WITHIN 150
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 103W...WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 114W...WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
116W AND 124W...AND ALSO S OF 05N BETWEEN 124W AND 129W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SW TO
26N117W TO A BASE NEAR 22N130W. OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT
REMAINS TO THE W OF THE TROUGHING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE W-NW ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF 130W. A 600 NM SWATH OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE NE AWAY FROM
CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN THE ITCZ ZONE. THE WIND FIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MONDAY
WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THEREAFTER.

AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANTS OF A RECENTLY DISSIPATED COLD
FRONT EXTEND FROM 31N111W TO 27N123W TO 32N127W. GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT
OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA CENTRAL COAST AROUND POINT CONCEPTION
AND S-SW OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS WITH OUTER ASSOCIATED FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MANAGING TO SPILL SOUTHWARD TO 29N
BETWEEN 117W AND 122W. FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL SURROUNDS THESE
WINDS WITH 8-11 FT N OF 26N W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 126W. THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON MON AND THEN THE
ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY TUE
MORNING.

A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 33N133W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE FROM THE HIGH TO 16N105W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGING AND N OF THE LOWER PRESSURE VALUES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 122W AND 132W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKED THROUGH 48 HOURS WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON MON.

A PAIR OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS ARE EMBEDDED OR NEAR THE ITCZ WITH
A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 07N100W AND A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 07N127W.
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE.
THE EASTERN LOW WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE
THE WESTERN LOW MOVES TO 06N132W BY 24 HOURS WHILE WEAKENING
TO 1010 MB.

E OF 110W...EARLY AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT
WINDS CONDITIONS RANGE FROM A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE AND ARE
ACCOMPANIED BY 3 TO 6 FT SEAS ACCORDING TO ALTIMETER PASSES.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXNT20 KNHC 261806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO
04N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N32W 01N40W
TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S50W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST TO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SUPPORTS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXTENDING FROM IDAHO SE TO NORTHERN MEXICO AND ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA
WESTWARD IS ALONG THE NORTHERN BASIN FROM 29N83W TO 28N90W TO
27N97W TO A 1004 MB LOW OVER NE MEXICO. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW A
HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE OVER THE W-NW GULF THAT IS
ENHANCING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 90W AND
94W AND SUPPORTS SEA FOG ELSEWHERE N OF 26N W OF 90W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO NOTICED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
FLORIDA ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS W OF 90W S OF THE
TROUGH AXIS ARE FROM THE S-SE RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KT. ON THE
REMAINDER BASIN S OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WINDS RANGE BETWEEN FROM
10 TO 15 KT AND ARE FROM THE S-SW. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE DOMINATE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
GULF...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INLAND WILL EMERGE FROM THE TEXAS
COAST MONDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE GULF
THROUGH WED WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC LINGERS OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CLOUDS INLAND.
A HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE IS ALONG THE COASTS FROM
VENEZUELA TO COSTA RICA THAT ENHANCES SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 83W. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TRADES OF 20
KT ARE OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 76W.
TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC LINGERS OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CLOUDS INLAND.
HOWEVER...THE ISLAND IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE THAT SUPPORTS STABILITY AND
FAIR WEATHER. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA SUPPORTS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NW ATLC FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM 30N49W TO 27N52W WHERE IT
STARTS TO DISSIPATE TO 25N57W...JUST S OF A 1015 MB DISSIPATING
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N58W. WEST OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER...TRAILING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
N OF 26N W OF 65W. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
300 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW
N ATLC WATERS MONDAY MORNING REACHING THE CENTRAL BASIN WED
MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261510
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN APR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N95W TO A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 07N99W TO
04N107W TO 05N112W...THEN RESUMES NEAR 08N130W TO A 1010 MB LOW
NEAR 08N136W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 103W...AND
FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 103W AND 111W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM
08N TO 12N BETWEEN 128W AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SW TO
27N114W TO A BASE NEAR 22N130W. WHILE OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR
ALOFT REMAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGHING AND ALSO AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE W-NW OF THE TROUGH
CENTERED NEAR 29N134W...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 31N115W TO 30N120W TO 31N125W. NW
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OCCURRING N OF 29N WITHIN
120 NM OF THE BAJA COAST. WITH MAXIMUM SEAS AT 10 FT NEAR
30N120W...SEAS 8 FT AND HIGHER COVER THE AREA N OF 26N E OF 125W
IN NW SWELL. IN ADDITION...ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A 600 NM WIDE SWATH OF MOISTURE EXISTS
ADVECTING THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS NE AWAY FROM CONVECTION
OCCURRING WITHIN THE ITCZ ZONE. THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MONDAY WITH SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THEREAFTER.

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 32N134W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE FROM THE HIGH TO 18N110W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGING AND N OF THE LOWER PRESSURE VALUES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES.

A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 12N113W TO 09N114W TO 06N113W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 05N TO
13N BETWEEN 112W AND 117W. THE WESTERN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
11N126W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 07N127W TO 03N127W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM THE EQUATOR TO 13N
BETWEEN 118W AND 128W. THE AREA OF TRADES IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 48 HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION WEAKENS.

E OF 110W...OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT WINDS
CONDITIONS RANGE FROM A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE AND ARE
ACCOMPANIED BY 3 TO 6 FT SEAS.

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261510
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN APR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N95W TO A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 07N99W TO
04N107W TO 05N112W...THEN RESUMES NEAR 08N130W TO A 1010 MB LOW
NEAR 08N136W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 103W...AND
FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 103W AND 111W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM
08N TO 12N BETWEEN 128W AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SW TO
27N114W TO A BASE NEAR 22N130W. WHILE OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR
ALOFT REMAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGHING AND ALSO AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE W-NW OF THE TROUGH
CENTERED NEAR 29N134W...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 31N115W TO 30N120W TO 31N125W. NW
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OCCURRING N OF 29N WITHIN
120 NM OF THE BAJA COAST. WITH MAXIMUM SEAS AT 10 FT NEAR
30N120W...SEAS 8 FT AND HIGHER COVER THE AREA N OF 26N E OF 125W
IN NW SWELL. IN ADDITION...ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A 600 NM WIDE SWATH OF MOISTURE EXISTS
ADVECTING THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS NE AWAY FROM CONVECTION
OCCURRING WITHIN THE ITCZ ZONE. THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MONDAY WITH SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THEREAFTER.

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 32N134W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE FROM THE HIGH TO 18N110W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGING AND N OF THE LOWER PRESSURE VALUES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES.

A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 12N113W TO 09N114W TO 06N113W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 05N TO
13N BETWEEN 112W AND 117W. THE WESTERN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
11N126W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 07N127W TO 03N127W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM THE EQUATOR TO 13N
BETWEEN 118W AND 128W. THE AREA OF TRADES IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 48 HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION WEAKENS.

E OF 110W...OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT WINDS
CONDITIONS RANGE FROM A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE AND ARE
ACCOMPANIED BY 3 TO 6 FT SEAS.

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261510
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN APR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N95W TO A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 07N99W TO
04N107W TO 05N112W...THEN RESUMES NEAR 08N130W TO A 1010 MB LOW
NEAR 08N136W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 103W...AND
FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 103W AND 111W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM
08N TO 12N BETWEEN 128W AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SW TO
27N114W TO A BASE NEAR 22N130W. WHILE OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR
ALOFT REMAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGHING AND ALSO AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE W-NW OF THE TROUGH
CENTERED NEAR 29N134W...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 31N115W TO 30N120W TO 31N125W. NW
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OCCURRING N OF 29N WITHIN
120 NM OF THE BAJA COAST. WITH MAXIMUM SEAS AT 10 FT NEAR
30N120W...SEAS 8 FT AND HIGHER COVER THE AREA N OF 26N E OF 125W
IN NW SWELL. IN ADDITION...ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A 600 NM WIDE SWATH OF MOISTURE EXISTS
ADVECTING THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS NE AWAY FROM CONVECTION
OCCURRING WITHIN THE ITCZ ZONE. THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MONDAY WITH SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THEREAFTER.

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 32N134W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE FROM THE HIGH TO 18N110W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGING AND N OF THE LOWER PRESSURE VALUES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES.

A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 12N113W TO 09N114W TO 06N113W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 05N TO
13N BETWEEN 112W AND 117W. THE WESTERN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
11N126W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 07N127W TO 03N127W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM THE EQUATOR TO 13N
BETWEEN 118W AND 128W. THE AREA OF TRADES IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 48 HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION WEAKENS.

E OF 110W...OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT WINDS
CONDITIONS RANGE FROM A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE AND ARE
ACCOMPANIED BY 3 TO 6 FT SEAS.

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 261023
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N13W TO
4N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 34W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM NORTH...AND 50 NM
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SURFACE TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE YUCATAN
EXTENDS FROM 25N88W TO 20N92W. SE WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE SE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH.
ELSEWHERE...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT IS OCCURRING OVER
THE NE GULF...WELL SOUTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SE
US. S TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF THIS
MORNING WITH THE LACK OF FORCING FROM ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AS A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER
THE CENTRAL US AND MOVES TOWARD THE GULF STATES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1007 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W SUPPORTS ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH IS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CARIBBEAN TO 12N BETWEEN THE COLOMBIA COAST AND 78W. THE
CONVECTION MAY LINGER ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN THROUGH
THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WHICH INHIBITS DEEP CONVECTION.
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES. 10 TO 15 KT TRADE WINDS COVER MUCH
OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR WINDS APPROACHING 25 KT WITHIN 100 NM
OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND WITHIN 100 NM NORTH OF
THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM 84W TO 87W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND MAY
CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH FAIR WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE ISLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLAND
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SUPPORTS
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION
NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. THIS CONVECTION IS SPREADING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND WILL AFFECT WATERS N OF 28N
EASTWARD TO 60 W THROUGH TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1014 MB IS
OVER THE WESTERN ATLC NEAR 27N63W AND IS DISSIPATING TODAY AS
THE SYSTEM EXITING THE US COAST MOVES EASTWARD. FARTHER EAST...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N49W TO 23N63W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 47W AND
55W. A STATIONARY 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 24N32W...WHILE A
1017 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N24W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH
THIS LOW. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY OFF
THE NORTH FL COAST TO 60W AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 261023
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N13W TO
4N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 34W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM NORTH...AND 50 NM
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SURFACE TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE YUCATAN
EXTENDS FROM 25N88W TO 20N92W. SE WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE SE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH.
ELSEWHERE...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT IS OCCURRING OVER
THE NE GULF...WELL SOUTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SE
US. S TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF THIS
MORNING WITH THE LACK OF FORCING FROM ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AS A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER
THE CENTRAL US AND MOVES TOWARD THE GULF STATES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1007 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W SUPPORTS ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH IS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CARIBBEAN TO 12N BETWEEN THE COLOMBIA COAST AND 78W. THE
CONVECTION MAY LINGER ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN THROUGH
THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WHICH INHIBITS DEEP CONVECTION.
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES. 10 TO 15 KT TRADE WINDS COVER MUCH
OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR WINDS APPROACHING 25 KT WITHIN 100 NM
OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND WITHIN 100 NM NORTH OF
THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM 84W TO 87W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND MAY
CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH FAIR WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE ISLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLAND
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SUPPORTS
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION
NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. THIS CONVECTION IS SPREADING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND WILL AFFECT WATERS N OF 28N
EASTWARD TO 60 W THROUGH TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1014 MB IS
OVER THE WESTERN ATLC NEAR 27N63W AND IS DISSIPATING TODAY AS
THE SYSTEM EXITING THE US COAST MOVES EASTWARD. FARTHER EAST...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N49W TO 23N63W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 47W AND
55W. A STATIONARY 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 24N32W...WHILE A
1017 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N24W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH
THIS LOW. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY OFF
THE NORTH FL COAST TO 60W AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 261023
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N13W TO
4N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 34W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM NORTH...AND 50 NM
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SURFACE TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE YUCATAN
EXTENDS FROM 25N88W TO 20N92W. SE WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE SE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH.
ELSEWHERE...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT IS OCCURRING OVER
THE NE GULF...WELL SOUTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SE
US. S TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF THIS
MORNING WITH THE LACK OF FORCING FROM ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AS A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER
THE CENTRAL US AND MOVES TOWARD THE GULF STATES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1007 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W SUPPORTS ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH IS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CARIBBEAN TO 12N BETWEEN THE COLOMBIA COAST AND 78W. THE
CONVECTION MAY LINGER ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN THROUGH
THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WHICH INHIBITS DEEP CONVECTION.
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES. 10 TO 15 KT TRADE WINDS COVER MUCH
OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR WINDS APPROACHING 25 KT WITHIN 100 NM
OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND WITHIN 100 NM NORTH OF
THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM 84W TO 87W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND MAY
CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH FAIR WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE ISLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLAND
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SUPPORTS
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION
NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. THIS CONVECTION IS SPREADING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND WILL AFFECT WATERS N OF 28N
EASTWARD TO 60 W THROUGH TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1014 MB IS
OVER THE WESTERN ATLC NEAR 27N63W AND IS DISSIPATING TODAY AS
THE SYSTEM EXITING THE US COAST MOVES EASTWARD. FARTHER EAST...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N49W TO 23N63W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 47W AND
55W. A STATIONARY 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 24N32W...WHILE A
1017 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N24W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH
THIS LOW. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY OFF
THE NORTH FL COAST TO 60W AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260920
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN APR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N93W TO 04N104W TO 06N114W TO 05N122W
TO 08N129W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 110W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 09N
BETWEEN 123W AND 128W.

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES MID-UPPER LEVELS N OF 15N W
OF 110W. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
FROM CENTRAL ARIZONA W-SW TO 26N118W TO 25N135W. A COLD FRONT IS
MOVING S ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

NEARLY STATIONARY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1027 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 31N135W EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
N OF 16N W OF 114W. SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA
OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS BETWEEN 11N-20N W OF 125W. WIND
WAVES GENERATED BY THE ENHANCED TRADES ARE SUPPORTING 8-10 FT
COMBINED SEAS IN WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ.

SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ALONG THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. FRESH NW SWELL WILL SWEEP S OF 30N W OF
124W TODAY THROUGH MON...WITH SEA HEIGHTS PEAKING AT 10-11 FT
TONIGHT. EXTREME NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA CAN EXPECT 20-25 KT
W-SW WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260920
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN APR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N93W TO 04N104W TO 06N114W TO 05N122W
TO 08N129W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 110W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 09N
BETWEEN 123W AND 128W.

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES MID-UPPER LEVELS N OF 15N W
OF 110W. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
FROM CENTRAL ARIZONA W-SW TO 26N118W TO 25N135W. A COLD FRONT IS
MOVING S ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

NEARLY STATIONARY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1027 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 31N135W EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
N OF 16N W OF 114W. SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA
OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS BETWEEN 11N-20N W OF 125W. WIND
WAVES GENERATED BY THE ENHANCED TRADES ARE SUPPORTING 8-10 FT
COMBINED SEAS IN WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ.

SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ALONG THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. FRESH NW SWELL WILL SWEEP S OF 30N W OF
124W TODAY THROUGH MON...WITH SEA HEIGHTS PEAKING AT 10-11 FT
TONIGHT. EXTREME NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA CAN EXPECT 20-25 KT
W-SW WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXNT20 KNHC 260542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N13W TO
4N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 35W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S45W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 125 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SUPPORTS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. A SURFACE TROUGH
TRAILS SOUTHWEST OF THIS LOW AND RESIDES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA TO 29N86W TO 27N91W. CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. CONVECTION OVER MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS NEARING THE SHORELINE ALONG THE WESTERN
GULF. THIS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION MAY AFFECT WATERS FROM
21N TO 23N BETWEEN 95W AND THE COAST OF MEXICO EARLY THIS
MORNING. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT AROUND WEAK WESTERN
ATLC HIGH PRESSURE. MODELS ARE FORECASTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY WITH A
FURTHER INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF INTO
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1006 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W SUPPORTS WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH HAS ENTERED THE
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN TO 11N BETWEEN THE COLOMBIA COAST AND 78W.
THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN WHICH INHIBITS DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE TRADE WIND FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE GREATER AND LESSER
ANTILLES. 10 TO 15 KT TRADE WINDS COVER MUCH OF THE
BASIN...EXCEPT FOR WINDS APPROACHING 25 KT WITHIN 100 NM OF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND WITHIN 100 NM NORTH OF THE
COAST OF HONDURAS FROM 85W TO 87W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
ISLAND MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FAIR WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE ISLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ISLAND ON SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SUPPORTS
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CAROLINA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING
OFFSHORE OVER THE SOUTHWEST NORTHERN ATLC WATERS. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW EXTENDS OVER OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NORTH
OF 30N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W. THIS CONVECTION IS SPREADING RAPIDLY
EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL AFFECT WATERS N OF 30N
EASTWARD TO 70 W THROUGH THE MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1015
MB IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC NEAR 30N68W AND IS DISSIPATING TODAY
AS THE SYSTEM EXITING THE US COAST MOVES EASTWARD. FARTHER
EAST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR
32N51W TO 24N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM
SE OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 28N. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A STATIONARY
1022MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 24N33W...WHILE A 1017 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 29N26W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS LOW. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION OFF THE EASTERN US WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD TO 60W. ON MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE
ATLC OFF THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 260542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N13W TO
4N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 35W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S45W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 125 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SUPPORTS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. A SURFACE TROUGH
TRAILS SOUTHWEST OF THIS LOW AND RESIDES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA TO 29N86W TO 27N91W. CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. CONVECTION OVER MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS NEARING THE SHORELINE ALONG THE WESTERN
GULF. THIS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION MAY AFFECT WATERS FROM
21N TO 23N BETWEEN 95W AND THE COAST OF MEXICO EARLY THIS
MORNING. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT AROUND WEAK WESTERN
ATLC HIGH PRESSURE. MODELS ARE FORECASTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY WITH A
FURTHER INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF INTO
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1006 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W SUPPORTS WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH HAS ENTERED THE
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN TO 11N BETWEEN THE COLOMBIA COAST AND 78W.
THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN WHICH INHIBITS DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE TRADE WIND FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE GREATER AND LESSER
ANTILLES. 10 TO 15 KT TRADE WINDS COVER MUCH OF THE
BASIN...EXCEPT FOR WINDS APPROACHING 25 KT WITHIN 100 NM OF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND WITHIN 100 NM NORTH OF THE
COAST OF HONDURAS FROM 85W TO 87W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
ISLAND MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FAIR WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE ISLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ISLAND ON SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SUPPORTS
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CAROLINA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING
OFFSHORE OVER THE SOUTHWEST NORTHERN ATLC WATERS. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW EXTENDS OVER OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NORTH
OF 30N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W. THIS CONVECTION IS SPREADING RAPIDLY
EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL AFFECT WATERS N OF 30N
EASTWARD TO 70 W THROUGH THE MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1015
MB IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC NEAR 30N68W AND IS DISSIPATING TODAY
AS THE SYSTEM EXITING THE US COAST MOVES EASTWARD. FARTHER
EAST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR
32N51W TO 24N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM
SE OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 28N. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A STATIONARY
1022MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 24N33W...WHILE A 1017 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 29N26W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS LOW. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION OFF THE EASTERN US WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD TO 60W. ON MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE
ATLC OFF THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260232
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN APR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N90W TO 07N111W THEN RESUMES
FROM 06N115W TO 07N126W THEN RESUMES FROM 07N130W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS W
OF 133W. ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 08N
BETWEEN 83W AND 86W UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS FROM 32N113W TO 26N126W TO 26N140W.
DRY AND STABLE AIR IS PUSHING IN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH
WHILE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE EXISTS WITHIN 90-120 NM SE OF
THE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WHICH IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN U.S. CALIFORNIA. NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA
AROUND POINT CONCEPTION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE WINDS
WILL BUILD FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL TO 8-11 FT N OF 25N BETWEEN
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 125W LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
48 HOURS. ASSOCIATED FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIP
SOUTHWARD TO 25N BY SUN NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MON EVENING.

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 32N139W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE OF THE HIGH THROUGH 30N129W TO
17N105W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGING AND N OF THE
LOWER PRESSURES ALONG THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES.

A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 12N111W TO 04N113W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 109W AND 113W. THE
WESTERN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N126W TO 06N128W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN
122W AND 127W...AND ALSO FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 127W AND 132W.
THE AREA OF TRADES WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 48 HOURS
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WEAKENS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN U.S. CALIFORNIA WILL ENTER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA LATER TONIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-30 KT N OF 29.5N AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT
WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARRIVING BEHIND IT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE SUN AS THE FRONT WEAKENS.

E OF 110W...SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT WINDS ARE MAINLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE WHILE ALTIMETER DATA SAMPLED 4-7 FT SEAS.
LIGHT TO MODERATE S-SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WHILE WINDS WILL PULSE TO MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260232
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN APR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N90W TO 07N111W THEN RESUMES
FROM 06N115W TO 07N126W THEN RESUMES FROM 07N130W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS W
OF 133W. ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 08N
BETWEEN 83W AND 86W UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS FROM 32N113W TO 26N126W TO 26N140W.
DRY AND STABLE AIR IS PUSHING IN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH
WHILE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE EXISTS WITHIN 90-120 NM SE OF
THE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WHICH IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN U.S. CALIFORNIA. NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA
AROUND POINT CONCEPTION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE WINDS
WILL BUILD FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL TO 8-11 FT N OF 25N BETWEEN
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 125W LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
48 HOURS. ASSOCIATED FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIP
SOUTHWARD TO 25N BY SUN NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MON EVENING.

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 32N139W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE OF THE HIGH THROUGH 30N129W TO
17N105W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGING AND N OF THE
LOWER PRESSURES ALONG THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES.

A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 12N111W TO 04N113W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 109W AND 113W. THE
WESTERN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N126W TO 06N128W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN
122W AND 127W...AND ALSO FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 127W AND 132W.
THE AREA OF TRADES WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 48 HOURS
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WEAKENS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN U.S. CALIFORNIA WILL ENTER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA LATER TONIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-30 KT N OF 29.5N AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT
WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARRIVING BEHIND IT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE SUN AS THE FRONT WEAKENS.

E OF 110W...SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT WINDS ARE MAINLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE WHILE ALTIMETER DATA SAMPLED 4-7 FT SEAS.
LIGHT TO MODERATE S-SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WHILE WINDS WILL PULSE TO MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260232
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN APR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N90W TO 07N111W THEN RESUMES
FROM 06N115W TO 07N126W THEN RESUMES FROM 07N130W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS W
OF 133W. ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 08N
BETWEEN 83W AND 86W UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS FROM 32N113W TO 26N126W TO 26N140W.
DRY AND STABLE AIR IS PUSHING IN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH
WHILE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE EXISTS WITHIN 90-120 NM SE OF
THE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WHICH IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN U.S. CALIFORNIA. NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA
AROUND POINT CONCEPTION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE WINDS
WILL BUILD FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL TO 8-11 FT N OF 25N BETWEEN
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 125W LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
48 HOURS. ASSOCIATED FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIP
SOUTHWARD TO 25N BY SUN NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MON EVENING.

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 32N139W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE OF THE HIGH THROUGH 30N129W TO
17N105W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGING AND N OF THE
LOWER PRESSURES ALONG THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES.

A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 12N111W TO 04N113W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 109W AND 113W. THE
WESTERN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N126W TO 06N128W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN
122W AND 127W...AND ALSO FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 127W AND 132W.
THE AREA OF TRADES WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 48 HOURS
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WEAKENS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN U.S. CALIFORNIA WILL ENTER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA LATER TONIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-30 KT N OF 29.5N AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT
WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARRIVING BEHIND IT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE SUN AS THE FRONT WEAKENS.

E OF 110W...SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT WINDS ARE MAINLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE WHILE ALTIMETER DATA SAMPLED 4-7 FT SEAS.
LIGHT TO MODERATE S-SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WHILE WINDS WILL PULSE TO MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY


000
AXNT20 KNHC 252357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO
4N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
4N22W TO 2N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 0N37W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 14W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 26N97W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO W OF TAMPICO MEXICO
NEAR 22N98W. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
FROM S LOUISIANA AT 30N90W TO 27N95W. PRESENTLY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN
86W-91W MOVING E. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. SMOKE AND HAZE IS SEEN
HOWEVER OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF
24N BETWEEN 86W-94W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE LOW IS
CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA MOVING E ENHANCING THE GULF
CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO
PERSIST OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 7N74W. 10-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS S OF CUBA. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HEATING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR REMAINS ALOFT
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N72W. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N56W TO 27N60W TO
25N70W. A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
34N45W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO 27N50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 43W-59W.
ANOTHER 1018 MB LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
30N26W MOVING E. A 1021 MB HIGH IS ALSO CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 24N30W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 60W-80W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-60W. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W. EXPECT ALL
FRONTS AND LOWS TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 252357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO
4N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
4N22W TO 2N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 0N37W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 14W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 26N97W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO W OF TAMPICO MEXICO
NEAR 22N98W. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
FROM S LOUISIANA AT 30N90W TO 27N95W. PRESENTLY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN
86W-91W MOVING E. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. SMOKE AND HAZE IS SEEN
HOWEVER OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF
24N BETWEEN 86W-94W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE LOW IS
CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA MOVING E ENHANCING THE GULF
CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO
PERSIST OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 7N74W. 10-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS S OF CUBA. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HEATING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR REMAINS ALOFT
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N72W. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N56W TO 27N60W TO
25N70W. A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
34N45W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO 27N50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 43W-59W.
ANOTHER 1018 MB LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
30N26W MOVING E. A 1021 MB HIGH IS ALSO CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 24N30W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 60W-80W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-60W. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W. EXPECT ALL
FRONTS AND LOWS TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 252357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO
4N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
4N22W TO 2N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 0N37W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 14W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 26N97W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO W OF TAMPICO MEXICO
NEAR 22N98W. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
FROM S LOUISIANA AT 30N90W TO 27N95W. PRESENTLY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN
86W-91W MOVING E. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. SMOKE AND HAZE IS SEEN
HOWEVER OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF
24N BETWEEN 86W-94W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE LOW IS
CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA MOVING E ENHANCING THE GULF
CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO
PERSIST OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 7N74W. 10-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS S OF CUBA. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HEATING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR REMAINS ALOFT
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N72W. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N56W TO 27N60W TO
25N70W. A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
34N45W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO 27N50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 43W-59W.
ANOTHER 1018 MB LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
30N26W MOVING E. A 1021 MB HIGH IS ALSO CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 24N30W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 60W-80W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-60W. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W. EXPECT ALL
FRONTS AND LOWS TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 252357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO
4N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
4N22W TO 2N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 0N37W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 14W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 26N97W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO W OF TAMPICO MEXICO
NEAR 22N98W. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
FROM S LOUISIANA AT 30N90W TO 27N95W. PRESENTLY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN
86W-91W MOVING E. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. SMOKE AND HAZE IS SEEN
HOWEVER OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF
24N BETWEEN 86W-94W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE LOW IS
CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA MOVING E ENHANCING THE GULF
CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO
PERSIST OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 7N74W. 10-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS S OF CUBA. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HEATING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR REMAINS ALOFT
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N72W. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N56W TO 27N60W TO
25N70W. A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
34N45W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO 27N50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 43W-59W.
ANOTHER 1018 MB LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
30N26W MOVING E. A 1021 MB HIGH IS ALSO CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 24N30W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 60W-80W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-60W. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W. EXPECT ALL
FRONTS AND LOWS TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 252357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO
4N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
4N22W TO 2N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 0N37W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 14W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 26N97W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO W OF TAMPICO MEXICO
NEAR 22N98W. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
FROM S LOUISIANA AT 30N90W TO 27N95W. PRESENTLY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN
86W-91W MOVING E. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. SMOKE AND HAZE IS SEEN
HOWEVER OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF
24N BETWEEN 86W-94W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE LOW IS
CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA MOVING E ENHANCING THE GULF
CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO
PERSIST OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 7N74W. 10-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS S OF CUBA. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HEATING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR REMAINS ALOFT
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N72W. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N56W TO 27N60W TO
25N70W. A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
34N45W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO 27N50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 43W-59W.
ANOTHER 1018 MB LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
30N26W MOVING E. A 1021 MB HIGH IS ALSO CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 24N30W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 60W-80W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-60W. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W. EXPECT ALL
FRONTS AND LOWS TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 252357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO
4N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
4N22W TO 2N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 0N37W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 14W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 26N97W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO W OF TAMPICO MEXICO
NEAR 22N98W. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
FROM S LOUISIANA AT 30N90W TO 27N95W. PRESENTLY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN
86W-91W MOVING E. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. SMOKE AND HAZE IS SEEN
HOWEVER OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF
24N BETWEEN 86W-94W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE LOW IS
CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA MOVING E ENHANCING THE GULF
CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO
PERSIST OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 7N74W. 10-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS S OF CUBA. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HEATING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR REMAINS ALOFT
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N72W. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N56W TO 27N60W TO
25N70W. A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
34N45W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO 27N50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 43W-59W.
ANOTHER 1018 MB LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
30N26W MOVING E. A 1021 MB HIGH IS ALSO CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 24N30W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 60W-80W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-60W. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W. EXPECT ALL
FRONTS AND LOWS TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252128
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT APR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N89W TO 08N111W THEN RESUMES FROM
06N115W TO 08N125W THEN RESUMES FROM 07N127W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS W OF 127W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS FROM 32N115W TO 27N125W TO 26N140W.
DRY AND STABLE AIR IS PUSHING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH WHILE A
NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE TROUGH.
THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN U.S. CALIFORNIA. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL BUILD
FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL TO 8-10 FT N OF 27N BETWEEN BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND 125W LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH 48
HOURS. ASSOCIATED FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIP
SOUTHWARD TO 28N BY LATE SUN NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MON
AFTERNOON.

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 31N139W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE OF THE HIGH THROUGH 28N125W TO
19N104W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGING AND N OF THE
LOWER PRESSURES ALONG THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ
WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 13N108W TO 06N113W AND
ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 14N
BETWEEN 107W AND 112W. THE WESTERN TROUGH REACHES FROM 12N123W
TO 07N127W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 10N
BETWEEN 121W AND 126W. THE AREA OF TRADES WILL DIMINISH TO LESS
THAN 20 KT BY 48 HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION WEAKENS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
U.S. CALIFORNIA WILL ENTER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-30 KT N OF 29.5N AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT WITH FRESH
TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARRIVING BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE SUN AS THE FRONT WEAKENS.

E OF 110W...SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT WINDS ARE MAINLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE WHILE ALTIMETER DATA SAMPLED 4-7 FT SEAS.
LIGHT TO MODERATE S-SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WHILE WINDS WILL PULSE TO MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY



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