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000
AXNT20 KNHC 121800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA...

GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM
10 FEET TO 13 FEET ARE FROM 10.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W.
THE GALE-FORCE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN
GALE-FORCE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF
LIBERIA NEAR 06N10W TO 03N20W AND 02N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 02N23W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W...AND CONTINUING IN
THE AREA FROM 01S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 27W AND 38W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN COAST OF THE U.S.A...FROM NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE
STATIONARY FRONT THAT CURRENTLY IS ALONG AN EAST-TO-WEST LINE
FROM GEORGIA TO EAST TEXAS IS FORECAST TO GAIN MORE ENERGY AND
MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA AS A COLD FRONT
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 1027 MB GULF OF MEXICO HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N84W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N97W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

VFR/NO CEILINGS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR CONDITIONS FROM TOMBALL TO CONROE TO HUNTSVILLE.
VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. THE LIFR CONDITIONS THAT WERE
OCCURRING FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL AREAS TO THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA TWO TO THREE HOURS AGO...HAVE CLEARED
UP. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN LAFAYETTE AND IN PATTERSON...BATON
ROUGE...IN AREAS THAT ARE ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORES OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND AT THE NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
MISSISSIPPI...MVFR IN BILOXI. FLORIDA...MVFR IN PERRY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 22N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO EASTERN JAMAICA...AND TO THE
NORTHEASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS
FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI TO EASTERN COASTAL HONDURAS.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
FROM 16N SOUTHWARD FROM 80W EASTWARD.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
12/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 3.26 IN
MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...0.15 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...0.05
IN KINGSTON IN JAMAICA...AND 0.01 IN GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...AND
NORTHEASTERLY 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW...ARE MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO JAMAICA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTO DOMINGO/LA ROMANA/PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. PUERTO
PLATA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE WIND FLOW FOR
DAY ONE WILL BE SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST...AND THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST.
A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA BEYOND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. EXPECT NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW FOR DAY TWO.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR DAY ONE. A COL POINT WILL BE
ABOUT 180 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA...AND
EVENTUALLY IT WILL MOVE TO A POINT THAT IS ABOUT 120 NM TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY THE END OF DAY ONE. EXPECT MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
DURING DAY TWO. THE COL POINT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND
DISSIPATE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MUCH OF DAY
ONE OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW FOR MUCH OF DAY ONE...BECOMING VARIABLE AT THE END OF DAY
ONE. EXPECT MORE VARIABLE WIND FLOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF DAY
TWO...BECOMING NORTHERLY FOR THE REST OF DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 31N55W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 31N55W TO 27N60W...TO 22N66W...THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO EASTERN JAMAICA...AND TO THE NORTHEASTERN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 350 NM TO 500 NM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N50W 24N60W...TO 20N70W AT THE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 12/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.02 IN BERMUDA.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 10N56W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 06N TO
13N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM
06N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 16N35W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N TO 23N BETWEEN 25W AND 41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 28W AND 33W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A 1032 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 121800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA...

GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM
10 FEET TO 13 FEET ARE FROM 10.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W.
THE GALE-FORCE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN
GALE-FORCE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF
LIBERIA NEAR 06N10W TO 03N20W AND 02N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 02N23W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W...AND CONTINUING IN
THE AREA FROM 01S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 27W AND 38W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN COAST OF THE U.S.A...FROM NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE
STATIONARY FRONT THAT CURRENTLY IS ALONG AN EAST-TO-WEST LINE
FROM GEORGIA TO EAST TEXAS IS FORECAST TO GAIN MORE ENERGY AND
MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA AS A COLD FRONT
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 1027 MB GULF OF MEXICO HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N84W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N97W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

VFR/NO CEILINGS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR CONDITIONS FROM TOMBALL TO CONROE TO HUNTSVILLE.
VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. THE LIFR CONDITIONS THAT WERE
OCCURRING FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL AREAS TO THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA TWO TO THREE HOURS AGO...HAVE CLEARED
UP. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN LAFAYETTE AND IN PATTERSON...BATON
ROUGE...IN AREAS THAT ARE ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORES OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND AT THE NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
MISSISSIPPI...MVFR IN BILOXI. FLORIDA...MVFR IN PERRY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 22N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO EASTERN JAMAICA...AND TO THE
NORTHEASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS
FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI TO EASTERN COASTAL HONDURAS.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
FROM 16N SOUTHWARD FROM 80W EASTWARD.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
12/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 3.26 IN
MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...0.15 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...0.05
IN KINGSTON IN JAMAICA...AND 0.01 IN GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...AND
NORTHEASTERLY 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW...ARE MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO JAMAICA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTO DOMINGO/LA ROMANA/PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. PUERTO
PLATA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE WIND FLOW FOR
DAY ONE WILL BE SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST...AND THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST.
A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA BEYOND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. EXPECT NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW FOR DAY TWO.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR DAY ONE. A COL POINT WILL BE
ABOUT 180 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA...AND
EVENTUALLY IT WILL MOVE TO A POINT THAT IS ABOUT 120 NM TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY THE END OF DAY ONE. EXPECT MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
DURING DAY TWO. THE COL POINT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND
DISSIPATE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MUCH OF DAY
ONE OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW FOR MUCH OF DAY ONE...BECOMING VARIABLE AT THE END OF DAY
ONE. EXPECT MORE VARIABLE WIND FLOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF DAY
TWO...BECOMING NORTHERLY FOR THE REST OF DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 31N55W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 31N55W TO 27N60W...TO 22N66W...THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO EASTERN JAMAICA...AND TO THE NORTHEASTERN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 350 NM TO 500 NM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N50W 24N60W...TO 20N70W AT THE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 12/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.02 IN BERMUDA.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 10N56W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 06N TO
13N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM
06N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 16N35W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N TO 23N BETWEEN 25W AND 41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 28W AND 33W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A 1032 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 121800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA...

GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM
10 FEET TO 13 FEET ARE FROM 10.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W.
THE GALE-FORCE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN
GALE-FORCE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF
LIBERIA NEAR 06N10W TO 03N20W AND 02N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 02N23W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W...AND CONTINUING IN
THE AREA FROM 01S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 27W AND 38W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN COAST OF THE U.S.A...FROM NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE
STATIONARY FRONT THAT CURRENTLY IS ALONG AN EAST-TO-WEST LINE
FROM GEORGIA TO EAST TEXAS IS FORECAST TO GAIN MORE ENERGY AND
MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA AS A COLD FRONT
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 1027 MB GULF OF MEXICO HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N84W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N97W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

VFR/NO CEILINGS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR CONDITIONS FROM TOMBALL TO CONROE TO HUNTSVILLE.
VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. THE LIFR CONDITIONS THAT WERE
OCCURRING FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL AREAS TO THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA TWO TO THREE HOURS AGO...HAVE CLEARED
UP. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN LAFAYETTE AND IN PATTERSON...BATON
ROUGE...IN AREAS THAT ARE ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORES OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND AT THE NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
MISSISSIPPI...MVFR IN BILOXI. FLORIDA...MVFR IN PERRY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 22N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO EASTERN JAMAICA...AND TO THE
NORTHEASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS
FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI TO EASTERN COASTAL HONDURAS.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
FROM 16N SOUTHWARD FROM 80W EASTWARD.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
12/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 3.26 IN
MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...0.15 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...0.05
IN KINGSTON IN JAMAICA...AND 0.01 IN GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...AND
NORTHEASTERLY 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW...ARE MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO JAMAICA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTO DOMINGO/LA ROMANA/PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. PUERTO
PLATA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE WIND FLOW FOR
DAY ONE WILL BE SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST...AND THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST.
A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA BEYOND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. EXPECT NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW FOR DAY TWO.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR DAY ONE. A COL POINT WILL BE
ABOUT 180 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA...AND
EVENTUALLY IT WILL MOVE TO A POINT THAT IS ABOUT 120 NM TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY THE END OF DAY ONE. EXPECT MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
DURING DAY TWO. THE COL POINT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND
DISSIPATE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MUCH OF DAY
ONE OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW FOR MUCH OF DAY ONE...BECOMING VARIABLE AT THE END OF DAY
ONE. EXPECT MORE VARIABLE WIND FLOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF DAY
TWO...BECOMING NORTHERLY FOR THE REST OF DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 31N55W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 31N55W TO 27N60W...TO 22N66W...THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO EASTERN JAMAICA...AND TO THE NORTHEASTERN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 350 NM TO 500 NM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N50W 24N60W...TO 20N70W AT THE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 12/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.02 IN BERMUDA.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 10N56W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 06N TO
13N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM
06N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 16N35W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N TO 23N BETWEEN 25W AND 41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 28W AND 33W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A 1032 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121603
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU FEB 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30-45 KT
WITH SEAS UP TO 15-17 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN
MORNING. THE AERIAL EXTENT OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY
INCREASE ON SAT AS HIGH PRES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL BE REINFORCING BY A STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDING S ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF UNITED STATES. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATE MON MORNING. ANOTHER
GALE EVENT IS THEN POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE RESULTANT SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE THROUGH
SW...MERGING WITH ENE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
GALE EVENT...MERGING WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL AND ALSO
MERGING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AN AREA
OF COMBINED SEAS IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE S OF 13N-14N BETWEEN 92W-
93W AND 110W OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE NARROW BAND OF
GALE CONDITIONS ARE SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF FONSECA. SEAS ARE UP
TO 13 FT DOWNWIND OF THE GALE AREA. EXPECT THE NE FLOW TO
DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND
INCREASE AGAIN TO 25-30 KT AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON SAT...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS TO 25-30 KT
ACROSS THE GULF OF FONSECA BY SAT NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO BY EARLY SUN MORNING. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N90W TO 04N100W TO 05N110W TO
07N120W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
03N TO 06N BETWEEN 90W AND 108W...AND FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN
130W AND 135W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN
BE FOUND FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 115W AND 122W...AND FROM 04N TO
07N BETWEEN 124W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA AND
EXTENDS FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS SEEN WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A 1023 MB HIGH PRES
FALLOWS THE FRONT AND IS CENTERED NEAR 30N146W. THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE HIGH PRES WILL
MOVE NE TO A POSITION NEAR 35N134W AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS
W OF 120W THIS WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A LARGE AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PARTICULARLY N OF THE ITCZ W OF 120W.

MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR TWO TROUGHS N
OF THE ITCZ W OF 120W THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAYBE AN
ISSUE WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET ALL INCREASE WINDS TO GALE FORCE WITH A
TROUGH NEAR OR ALONG 126W BY SAT NIGHT...WHILE GEFS 34 KT
PROBABILITIES ARE GREATER THAN 20 PERCENT. SREF PACIFIC 34 KT
PROBABILITIES ARE 10-15 PERCENT. FOR NOW WILL CAP WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AT 30 KT...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED AS CONDITIONS PROGRESS.

LARGE NW SWELLS...WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 21-22 SECONDS...CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS W OF 115W WITH SEAS UP TO
17-18 FT NEAR 30N140W. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE TO THE E-SE...REACHING THE COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO AND LAS
TRES MARIAS ISLANDS TONIGHT. EXPECT ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SURF
CONDITIONS AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL TRAIN REACHES SHORE.
SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL WILL REACH
ALL THE WAY TO 110W BY SAT MORNING.

GULF OF PANAMA...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO HIGH PRES RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA. THIS SETUP WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW DOWNWIND OF
THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...OCCASIONALLY
INCREASING TO 30 KT NEAR OR JUST S OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-10 FT ACROSS
THIS AREA AS A RESULT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...MAINLY MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW AND 1-3 FT
SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FT NEAR
THE ENTRANCE.

$$
GR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 121154
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA
SUPPORTS GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SAT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LIBERIA AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 05N10W AND CONTINUES TO 02N24W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 01N40W TO NORTHERN BRAZIL COASTAL WATERS
NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 0N TO 06N ALONG BOTH THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A
1025 MB HIGH OVER E WATERS NEAR 25N87W. LIGHT AND GENTLE
VARIABLE WIND COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT OFF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WHERE MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED. WATER
VAPOR AND CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY STABLE
AIR ACROSS THE BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY
SAT WHEN THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES DISSIPATES OFF THE COAST OF
TEXAS. THEN...AN ELONGATED RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR NORTHERN IOWA
WILL PROVIDE NE TO E FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER NW HISPANIOLA THAT STALLS
AND STARTS TO DISSIPATE SW TO EASTERN JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA NE
COASTAL WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN BASIN SUPPORTS
ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN HISPANIOLA. FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW IS W OF THE FRONT TO
80W. WITH HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN...THE PRES GRADIENT HAS TIGHTEN
IN THE SW BASIN. THIS IS LEADING TO GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SAT. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE IN THE REMAINDER
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 69W AND 80W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
NW CARIBBEAN SAT AS A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS.

HISPANIOLA...

A COLD FRONT OVER SW N ATLC WATERS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW ISLAND
AND STALLS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO NICARAGUA NE
COASTAL WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN HISPANIOLA TODAY. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD
FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N57W SW TO NW
HISPANIOLA TO NICARAGUA NE COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
HAPPENING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS E ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE SW N ATLC...W OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER BASIN E OF
THE FRONT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY
A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N29W. THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT E
TO THE CENTRAL ATLC TODAY WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLC WATERS SAT MORNING WITH
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS



000
AXNT20 KNHC 121154
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA
SUPPORTS GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SAT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LIBERIA AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 05N10W AND CONTINUES TO 02N24W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 01N40W TO NORTHERN BRAZIL COASTAL WATERS
NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 0N TO 06N ALONG BOTH THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A
1025 MB HIGH OVER E WATERS NEAR 25N87W. LIGHT AND GENTLE
VARIABLE WIND COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT OFF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WHERE MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED. WATER
VAPOR AND CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY STABLE
AIR ACROSS THE BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY
SAT WHEN THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES DISSIPATES OFF THE COAST OF
TEXAS. THEN...AN ELONGATED RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR NORTHERN IOWA
WILL PROVIDE NE TO E FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER NW HISPANIOLA THAT STALLS
AND STARTS TO DISSIPATE SW TO EASTERN JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA NE
COASTAL WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN BASIN SUPPORTS
ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN HISPANIOLA. FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW IS W OF THE FRONT TO
80W. WITH HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN...THE PRES GRADIENT HAS TIGHTEN
IN THE SW BASIN. THIS IS LEADING TO GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SAT. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE IN THE REMAINDER
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 69W AND 80W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
NW CARIBBEAN SAT AS A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS.

HISPANIOLA...

A COLD FRONT OVER SW N ATLC WATERS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW ISLAND
AND STALLS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO NICARAGUA NE
COASTAL WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN HISPANIOLA TODAY. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD
FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N57W SW TO NW
HISPANIOLA TO NICARAGUA NE COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
HAPPENING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS E ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE SW N ATLC...W OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER BASIN E OF
THE FRONT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY
A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N29W. THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT E
TO THE CENTRAL ATLC TODAY WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLC WATERS SAT MORNING WITH
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 121154
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA
SUPPORTS GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SAT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LIBERIA AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 05N10W AND CONTINUES TO 02N24W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 01N40W TO NORTHERN BRAZIL COASTAL WATERS
NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 0N TO 06N ALONG BOTH THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A
1025 MB HIGH OVER E WATERS NEAR 25N87W. LIGHT AND GENTLE
VARIABLE WIND COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT OFF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WHERE MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED. WATER
VAPOR AND CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY STABLE
AIR ACROSS THE BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY
SAT WHEN THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES DISSIPATES OFF THE COAST OF
TEXAS. THEN...AN ELONGATED RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR NORTHERN IOWA
WILL PROVIDE NE TO E FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER NW HISPANIOLA THAT STALLS
AND STARTS TO DISSIPATE SW TO EASTERN JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA NE
COASTAL WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN BASIN SUPPORTS
ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN HISPANIOLA. FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW IS W OF THE FRONT TO
80W. WITH HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN...THE PRES GRADIENT HAS TIGHTEN
IN THE SW BASIN. THIS IS LEADING TO GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SAT. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE IN THE REMAINDER
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 69W AND 80W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
NW CARIBBEAN SAT AS A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS.

HISPANIOLA...

A COLD FRONT OVER SW N ATLC WATERS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW ISLAND
AND STALLS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO NICARAGUA NE
COASTAL WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN HISPANIOLA TODAY. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD
FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N57W SW TO NW
HISPANIOLA TO NICARAGUA NE COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
HAPPENING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS E ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE SW N ATLC...W OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER BASIN E OF
THE FRONT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY
A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N29W. THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT E
TO THE CENTRAL ATLC TODAY WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLC WATERS SAT MORNING WITH
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120956
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI FEB 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS...
WITH SEAS UP TO 15-17 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN
MORNING. THE N WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS
LATE MON MORNING. ANOTHER GALE EVENT IS THEN POSSIBLE LATE MON
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTANT SWELL CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE SE THROUGH SW...MERGING WITH ENE SWELL GENERATED FROM
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT...MERGING WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL
SW SWELL AND ALSO MERGING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE NARROW BAND OF
GALE CONDITIONS ARE SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG FLOW...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF FONSECA. SEAS ARE UP TO
14 FT DOWNWIND OF THE GALE AREA. EXPECT THE NE FLOW TO DIMINISH
TO 15-20 KT ON SUN AND MON AFTERNOONS...THEN INCREASE TO 20-25
KT AGAIN EACH NIGHT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N90W TO 04N100W TO 07N117W TO
04N130W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO
06N BETWEEN 94W AND 103W...FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 108W AND
113W...AND ALSO FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 127W AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 29N128W TO
27N120W TO 19N111W...WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
30N136W TO 27N140W. LIGHT WINDS COVER THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF
110W...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES S OF 20N W OF 110W.
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT GRADUALLY INCREASING
THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 120W THIS WEEKEND.
TRADES WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG AS A RESULT ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ W OF 120W.

MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR TWO TROUGHS N
OF THE ITCZ W OF 120W THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAYBE AN
ISSUE WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET ALL INCREASE WINDS TO GALE FORCE WITH A
TROUGH NEAR OR ALONG 126W BY SAT NIGHT...WHILE GEFS 34 KT
PROBABILITIES ARE GREATER THAN 20 PERCENT. SREF PACIFIC 34 KT
PROBABILITIES ARE 10-15 PERCENT. FOR NOW WILL CAP WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AT 30 KT...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED AS CONDITIONS PROGRESS.

LARGE NW SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE WATERS W
OF 123W WITH SEAS UP TO 18 FT NEAR 30N140W. THESE SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE E-SE...REACHING THE COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THIS MORNING AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 20-23 SECONDS RESULTING IN
POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SURF. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SWELL WILL REACH ALL THE WAY TO 110W BY SAT NIGHT.

GULF OF PANAMA...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO HIGH PRES RIDGING ALONG INTERIOR
CENTRAL AMERICA AND LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA. THIS SETUP WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW DOWNWIND OF
THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...OCCASIONALLY
INCREASING TO 30 KT NEAR OR JUST S OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-10 FT ACROSS
THIS AREA AS A RESULT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...MAINLY MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW AND 1-3 FT
SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SAT NIGHT...EXCEPT 3-5 FT NEAR THE
ENTRANCE.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXNT20 KNHC 120602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL
LEAD TO GALE FORCE WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 07N12W AND CONTINUES TO 03N23W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 05N34W TO NORTHERN BRAZIL COASTAL WATERS
NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 01N TO 07N ALONG BOTH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A
1026 MB HIGH OVER NE WATERS NEAR 26N87W. LIGHT AND GENTLE
VARIABLE WIND COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT OFF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WHERE MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED. WATER
VAPOR AND CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY STABLE
AIR ACROSS THE BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY
SAT WHEN THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES DISSIPATES OFF THE COAST OF
TEXAS. THEN...AN ELONGATED RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR NORTHERN IOWA
WILL PROVIDE NE TO E FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE SW TO EASTERN JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA NE COASTAL WATERS.
SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN BASIN SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS W
OF THE FRONT AND OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA. FRESH TO
STRONG NE FLOW IS W OF THE COLD FRONT TO 84W. WITH HIGH PRES
EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE
CARIBBEAN...THE PRES GRADIENT HAS TIGHTEN IN THE SW BASIN. THIS
WILL LEAD TO GALE-FORCE WINDS STARTING LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MODERATE TRADE FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE
THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO
SPECIAL FEATURES. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL LATER THIS MORNING
AND DISSIPATE FRI NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO EASTERN
JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA NE COASTAL WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN HISPANIOLA. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL LATER THIS MORNING
AND DISSIPATE FRI NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD
FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N57W SW TO NW HAITI
TO NICARAGUA NE COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE HAPPENING
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS E ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO
THE SW N ATLC...W OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER BASIN E OF THE
FRONT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N29W. THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT E
TO THE CENTRAL ATLC FRIDAY WHERE IT WILL STALL. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLC WATERS SAT MORNING WITH FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS



000
AXNT20 KNHC 120602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL
LEAD TO GALE FORCE WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 07N12W AND CONTINUES TO 03N23W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 05N34W TO NORTHERN BRAZIL COASTAL WATERS
NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 01N TO 07N ALONG BOTH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A
1026 MB HIGH OVER NE WATERS NEAR 26N87W. LIGHT AND GENTLE
VARIABLE WIND COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT OFF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WHERE MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED. WATER
VAPOR AND CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY STABLE
AIR ACROSS THE BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY
SAT WHEN THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES DISSIPATES OFF THE COAST OF
TEXAS. THEN...AN ELONGATED RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR NORTHERN IOWA
WILL PROVIDE NE TO E FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE SW TO EASTERN JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA NE COASTAL WATERS.
SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN BASIN SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS W
OF THE FRONT AND OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA. FRESH TO
STRONG NE FLOW IS W OF THE COLD FRONT TO 84W. WITH HIGH PRES
EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE
CARIBBEAN...THE PRES GRADIENT HAS TIGHTEN IN THE SW BASIN. THIS
WILL LEAD TO GALE-FORCE WINDS STARTING LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MODERATE TRADE FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE
THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO
SPECIAL FEATURES. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL LATER THIS MORNING
AND DISSIPATE FRI NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO EASTERN
JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA NE COASTAL WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN HISPANIOLA. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL LATER THIS MORNING
AND DISSIPATE FRI NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD
FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N57W SW TO NW HAITI
TO NICARAGUA NE COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE HAPPENING
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS E ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO
THE SW N ATLC...W OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER BASIN E OF THE
FRONT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N29W. THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT E
TO THE CENTRAL ATLC FRIDAY WHERE IT WILL STALL. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLC WATERS SAT MORNING WITH FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120317
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI FEB 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS...
WITH SEAS TO 17 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN
MORNING. THE N WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS
LATE MON MORNING. THE RESULTANT SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE
THROUGH SW...MERGING WITH ENE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT...MERGING WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL AND
ALSO MERGING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ALONG 05N BETWEEN 90-101W TONIGHT AND
REACH ALONG 09N BETWEEN 98-102W ON SAT NIGHT...WITH SEAS 8 FT OR
GREATER REACHING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 93-110W. SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE
CONDITIONS ARE SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR FLOW
EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 07N96W...RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING TO
ABOUT 14 FT NEAR 09N88W TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. PATCHES OF
STRONG NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 12N
BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO A MAX OF 9 FT DUE TO THE LIMITED FETCH. EXPECT THE
NE FLOW TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT ON SUN AND MON AFTERNOONS THEN
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT AGAIN EACH NIGHT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS NEAR 05N87W AND
EXTENDS W TO 02N101W...THEN TURNS NW TO 06N112W WITH AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 05N115W TO 11N115W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF
THE TROUGH AT 07N120W AND CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 03N140W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 300 NM
OF TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
05N87W TO 05N109W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF W SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 120W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A BROAD AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS SE FROM 27N120W TO 16N100W. THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
LIGHT N-NE FLOW ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 106-120W
THROUGH EARLY SUN...THEN THE N WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND A RIDGE FROM 25N120W TO 17N106W.
COMBINED SEAS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 3-6 FT RANGE PRIMARILY DUE TO
LONG PERIOD SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL.
LARGE NW SWELL...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT...WILL
ARRIVE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N ALONG 120W LATE TONIGHT...
REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA ON FRI
AFTERNOON...REACH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA LATE FRI NIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE SUN...THEN SUBSIDE FROM THE N ON MON.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 97-106W WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED GALE EVENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE WATERS TO
THE E OF 97W. MODERATE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THROUGH LATE SUN INCREASING TO FRESH ON SUN NIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF ABOUT
04N AND W OF ABOUT 87W. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL SPREAD S FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG ABOUT 04N
EACH NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO ABOUT 10 FT NEAR 06N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM 00-32N E OF 140W...A SURFACE HIGH MEANDERING NEAR
32N126W CONTINUES TO BLOCK THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF WEAK COLD
FRONTS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 32N133W TO 27N140W.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM 32N133W TO 25N140W EARLY FRI AND
QUICKLY DISSIPATE. ALTHOUGH EXPECTING ONLY A 10-15 KT SW-W-NW-N
WIND SHIFT WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 32N...THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT LONG PERIOD NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT DRIVING
COMBINED SEAS UP TO A HIGH AS 18 FT NEAR 31N140W. EXPECT SEAS OF
12 FT OR GREATER TO PROPAGATE E TO A LINE FROM 32N120W TO
05N140W ON SAT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 10N THROUGH SUN
EVENING.

$$
NELSON



000
AXNT20 KNHC 112347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE BY TONIGHT FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-76W SUPPORTED BY A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W ALONG 9N16W 5N19W TO 2N223W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N27W 2N36W THEN SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 43W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 23W-45W AND FROM 1N-
3N BETWEEN 44W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N88W. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES
THE AREA. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. EXPECT FOR THESE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE PREVAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 16N85W TO
20N75W. CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS WITHIN 100
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AFFECTING E CUBA...W
HISPANIOLA...HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL W OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMINDER OF THE BASIN E OF THE FRONT. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT SE WHILE
WEAKENING WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W-CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N75W BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
ISLAND MAINLY W OF 70W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT E WHILE
WEAKENING. WITH THIS...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 20N75W
TO 32N56W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 50 NM OF THE
FRONT. TO THE E...A BROAD 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CENTERED NEAR 32N30W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW
PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC WHILE A GENTLE TO
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATED THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E
WHILE WEAKENING. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 112347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE BY TONIGHT FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-76W SUPPORTED BY A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W ALONG 9N16W 5N19W TO 2N223W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N27W 2N36W THEN SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 43W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 23W-45W AND FROM 1N-
3N BETWEEN 44W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N88W. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES
THE AREA. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. EXPECT FOR THESE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE PREVAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 16N85W TO
20N75W. CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS WITHIN 100
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AFFECTING E CUBA...W
HISPANIOLA...HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL W OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMINDER OF THE BASIN E OF THE FRONT. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT SE WHILE
WEAKENING WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W-CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N75W BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
ISLAND MAINLY W OF 70W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT E WHILE
WEAKENING. WITH THIS...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 20N75W
TO 32N56W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 50 NM OF THE
FRONT. TO THE E...A BROAD 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CENTERED NEAR 32N30W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW
PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC WHILE A GENTLE TO
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATED THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E
WHILE WEAKENING. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 112347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE BY TONIGHT FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-76W SUPPORTED BY A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W ALONG 9N16W 5N19W TO 2N223W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N27W 2N36W THEN SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 43W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 23W-45W AND FROM 1N-
3N BETWEEN 44W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N88W. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES
THE AREA. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. EXPECT FOR THESE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE PREVAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 16N85W TO
20N75W. CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS WITHIN 100
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AFFECTING E CUBA...W
HISPANIOLA...HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL W OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMINDER OF THE BASIN E OF THE FRONT. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT SE WHILE
WEAKENING WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W-CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N75W BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
ISLAND MAINLY W OF 70W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT E WHILE
WEAKENING. WITH THIS...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 20N75W
TO 32N56W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 50 NM OF THE
FRONT. TO THE E...A BROAD 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CENTERED NEAR 32N30W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW
PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC WHILE A GENTLE TO
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATED THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E
WHILE WEAKENING. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112156
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU FEB 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS...
WITH SEAS TO 18 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN
MORNING. THE N WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS
LATE MON MORNING. THE RESULTANT SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE
THROUGH SW...MERGING WITH ENE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT...MERGING WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL AND
ALSO MERGING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ALONG 05N BETWEEN 90-101W TONIGHT AND
REACH ALONG 09N BETWEEN 98-102W ON SAT NIGHT...WITH SEAS 8 FT OR
GREATER REACHING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 93-110W. SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE ON FRI. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE
CONDITIONS ARE SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR FLOW
EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 07N96W...RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING TO
ABOUT 14 FT NEAR 09N88W TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. PATCHES OF
STRONG NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 12N
BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO ONLY 9 FT IN THE LIMITED FETCH. EXPECT THE NE FLOW
TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT ON SUN AND MON AFTERNOONS THEN INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT AGAIN EACH NIGHT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS NEAR FROM 06N85W
TO 03N94W TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH 08N115W...THEN TURNS SW TO
BEYOND 03N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG IS NOTED WITHIN 180
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N86W TO 04N99W TO 06N110W. SCATTERED
MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM OF 06N137W.

...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A BROAD AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS SE FROM 27N120W TO 16N100W. THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
LIGHT N-NE FLOW ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 106-120W
THROUGH EARLY SUN...THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE TO MODERATE AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND A RIDGE FROM 25N120W TO 17N106W.
COMBINED SEAS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 3-6 FT RANGE PRIMARILY DUE TO
LONG PERIOD SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL.
LARGE NW SWELL...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT...WILL
ARRIVE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N ALONG 120W LATE TONIGHT...
REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA ON FRI
AFTERNOON...REACH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA LATE FRI NIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE SUN...THEN SUBSIDE FROM THE N ON MON.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 97-106W WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED GALE EVENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE WATERS TO
THE E OF 97W. MODERATE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THROUGH LATE SUN INCREASING TO FRESH ON SUN NIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF ABOUT
04N AND W OF ABOUT 87W. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL SPREAD S FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG ABOUT 04N
EACH NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO ABOUT 10 FT NEAR 06N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM 00-32N E OF 140W...A SURFACE HIGH MEANDERING NEAR
32.5N126W CONTINUES TO BLOCK THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF WEAK COLD
FRONTS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 32N137W TO 28N140W.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM 32N133W TO 25N140W EARLY FRI AND
QUICKLY DISSIPATE. ALTHOUGH EXPECTING ONLY A 10-15 KT SW-W-NW-N
WIND SHIFT WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 32N...THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT LONG PERIOD NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT DRIVING
COMBINED SEAS UP TO A HIGH AS 18 FT NEAR 31N140W. EXPECT SEAS OF
12 FT OR GREATER TO PROPAGATE E TO A LINE FROM 32N120W TO
05N140W ON SAT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 10N THROUGH SUN
EVENING.

$$
NELSON



000
AXNT20 KNHC 111747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE N
COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W ALONG 9N16W 5N19W TO 2N223W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N27W 2N36W THEN SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 43W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 23W-45W AND FROM 1N-
3N BETWEEN 44W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS...W ATLC AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB
HIGH NEAR 25N89W. SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR ACROSS THE GULF THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE GULF WHERE BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE PRESENT WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHEN THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE N GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM VENEZUELA ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE BASIN. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W
W TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS THEN SW TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR
17N86W TO BELIZE NEAR 16N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF LINE FROM HAITI NEAR 18N72W ALONG 16N79W
TO 12N81W TO PANAMA NEAR 9N81W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE S AND STALL FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO SAN ANDRES ISLAND
LATE TODAY AND DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY FRI. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF HAITI THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
ISLAND MAINLY W OF 70W. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST N OF THE
ISLAND TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE TODAY AND BECOME DIFFUSE
FRI. THIS WILL GIVE THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N60W ALONG 26N65W JUST E OF THE TURKS AND
CAICOS THEN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 24N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF
THE FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE W ATLC W OF
THE COLD FRONT TO 79W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N41W. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A
1034 MB HIGH NEAR 33N31W. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM 32N56W
ALONG 24N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE TODAY AND BECOME
DIFFUSE FRI. A SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF THE SE CONUS EARLY ON FRI
WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES WELL NE OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT
AND SAT DRAGGING A SECOND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF 27N
THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 111747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE N
COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W ALONG 9N16W 5N19W TO 2N223W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N27W 2N36W THEN SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 43W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 23W-45W AND FROM 1N-
3N BETWEEN 44W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS...W ATLC AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB
HIGH NEAR 25N89W. SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR ACROSS THE GULF THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE GULF WHERE BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE PRESENT WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHEN THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE N GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM VENEZUELA ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE BASIN. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W
W TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS THEN SW TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR
17N86W TO BELIZE NEAR 16N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF LINE FROM HAITI NEAR 18N72W ALONG 16N79W
TO 12N81W TO PANAMA NEAR 9N81W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE S AND STALL FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO SAN ANDRES ISLAND
LATE TODAY AND DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY FRI. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF HAITI THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
ISLAND MAINLY W OF 70W. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST N OF THE
ISLAND TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE TODAY AND BECOME DIFFUSE
FRI. THIS WILL GIVE THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N60W ALONG 26N65W JUST E OF THE TURKS AND
CAICOS THEN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 24N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF
THE FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE W ATLC W OF
THE COLD FRONT TO 79W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N41W. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A
1034 MB HIGH NEAR 33N31W. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM 32N56W
ALONG 24N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE TODAY AND BECOME
DIFFUSE FRI. A SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF THE SE CONUS EARLY ON FRI
WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES WELL NE OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT
AND SAT DRAGGING A SECOND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF 27N
THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 111747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE N
COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W ALONG 9N16W 5N19W TO 2N223W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N27W 2N36W THEN SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 43W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 23W-45W AND FROM 1N-
3N BETWEEN 44W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS...W ATLC AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB
HIGH NEAR 25N89W. SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR ACROSS THE GULF THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE GULF WHERE BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE PRESENT WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHEN THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE N GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM VENEZUELA ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE BASIN. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W
W TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS THEN SW TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR
17N86W TO BELIZE NEAR 16N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF LINE FROM HAITI NEAR 18N72W ALONG 16N79W
TO 12N81W TO PANAMA NEAR 9N81W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE S AND STALL FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO SAN ANDRES ISLAND
LATE TODAY AND DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY FRI. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF HAITI THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
ISLAND MAINLY W OF 70W. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST N OF THE
ISLAND TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE TODAY AND BECOME DIFFUSE
FRI. THIS WILL GIVE THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N60W ALONG 26N65W JUST E OF THE TURKS AND
CAICOS THEN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 24N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF
THE FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE W ATLC W OF
THE COLD FRONT TO 79W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N41W. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A
1034 MB HIGH NEAR 33N31W. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM 32N56W
ALONG 24N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE TODAY AND BECOME
DIFFUSE FRI. A SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF THE SE CONUS EARLY ON FRI
WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES WELL NE OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT
AND SAT DRAGGING A SECOND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF 27N
THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111539
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED FEB 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40-45 KT ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH SAT
MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THE ITCZ TO
THE SW AND HIGH PRES TO THE N OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
MAXIMUM SEAS IN THE 16-18 FT RANGE WILL PERSIST S OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SAT MORNING.
THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE NE SWELL
THAT WILL PROPAGATE S-SW...MERGING WITH E-NE SWELL GENERATED
FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT. THIS COMBINED SWELL WILL
ALLOW FOR 10-14 FT SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN
90W-102W THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MAXIMUM SEAS THEN GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING AS THE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DIMINISH. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH FRI MORNING THEN DIMINISH TO A STRONG BREEZE TO
NEAR GALE FORCE THROUGH SUNRISE SAT AS THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINS TO SLACKEN. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE
CONDITIONS IS SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE
FLOW EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 07N96W...WITH 10-14 FT SEAS FOUND
WELL DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS DESCRIBED WITH THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING ABOVE. THE FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN
THE GULF OF FONSECA THIS MORNING SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE
FRI. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N88W TO 02N100W TO
05N110W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 06N115W TO 03N130W TO 02N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 88W-100W. A TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ALONG 112W FROM 04N-10N.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 420 NM E OF THE TROUGH
FROM 04N-08N.

...DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGES EXTEND SE FROM 1023 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 33N127W
SOUTHEASTWARD TO 25N118W AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO 20N140W. A COLD
FRONT WAS ANALYZED JUST W OF THE RIDGING ACROSS NW WATERS FROM
32N138W TO 29N140W. THIS COLD FRONT IS USHERING IN LONG-PERIOD
NW SWELL...WITH SEAS IN THE 12-18 FT RANGE W OF A LINE FROM
30N135W TO 24N140W. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER NW WATERS FRI.
PERIODS IN EXCESS OF 20 SECONDS ARE FOUND ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS SWELL TRAIN WHICH SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE EARLY FRI MORNING WITH SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE. THE SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FRI INTO SAT MORNING. THIS SWELL MAY MAKE
FOR LARGE SURF AND DANGEROUS CONDITIONS EXITING AND ENTERING
PORTS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY FRI EVENING AND CABO
CORRIENTES BY SAT MORNING.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING TO THE N AND THE ITCZ TO
THE S IS GENERATING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PRIMARILY FROM
07N-11N W OF 130W AS SEEN IN THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASSES AROUND
06Z. THESE TRADES SHOULD SHRINK IN AREA FRI AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES N OF THE AREA...BUT SHOULD EXPAND AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA FROM 07N-25N W OF 137W BY SAT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
BEHIND THE FRONT.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PANAMA...A FRESH TO STRONG N-NE BREEZE WILL PERSIST FROM
THE GULF OF PANAMA S-SW TO NEAR 03N82W THROUGH FRI
MORNING...WITH THE AREAL EXTENT OF THESE WINDS BECOMING SLIGHTLY
LARGER IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND SHRINKING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SEAS OF 8-10 FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI
MORNING. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN SOME BY SAT...REDUCING
THE AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS TO 8 FT.

$$
SCHAUER



000
AXNT20 KNHC 111059
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN LATER THIS MORNING...LEADING TO GALE FORCE WINDS
ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND
76W. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY...PULSING BACK TO GALE
FORCE THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 09N13W TO 05N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 02N36W TO 00N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 19W AND 29W AND FROM 01N TO 06N
BETWEEN 32W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB
HIGH OVER WEST-CENTRAL WATERS NEAR 24N93W. GENTLE VARIABLE WIND
COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS WHERE
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED. WATER VAPOR AND CIRA LAYER
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE
BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BASE OF A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND SUPPORT THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN CUBA SW TO 19N84W TO 16N87W. THE REMNANTS OF A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ARE ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM 18N78W TO 11N82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH THE FRONT AND THE TROUGH. FRESH
TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE
TROUGH S OF 21N...BETWEEN 78W AND 84W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
ARE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 68W AND
80W...EXCEPT GALE-FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE
REFER TO SPECIAL FEATURES. THE TAIL OF THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL
BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THE NEXT TWO DAYS DUE TO
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL ATLC WATERS.

HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT SUPPORTS FOG OVER WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND NORTHERN
HAITI. THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN CUBA AND
NW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT AND
WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD
FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N64W SW TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO THE NW CARIBBEAN
WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE HAPPENING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N31W.
THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT E TO THE CENTRAL ATLC FRIDAY WHERE IT
WILL STALL. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLC WATERS
SAT MORNING WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 111059
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN LATER THIS MORNING...LEADING TO GALE FORCE WINDS
ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND
76W. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY...PULSING BACK TO GALE
FORCE THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 09N13W TO 05N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 02N36W TO 00N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 19W AND 29W AND FROM 01N TO 06N
BETWEEN 32W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB
HIGH OVER WEST-CENTRAL WATERS NEAR 24N93W. GENTLE VARIABLE WIND
COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS WHERE
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED. WATER VAPOR AND CIRA LAYER
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE
BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BASE OF A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND SUPPORT THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN CUBA SW TO 19N84W TO 16N87W. THE REMNANTS OF A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ARE ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM 18N78W TO 11N82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH THE FRONT AND THE TROUGH. FRESH
TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE
TROUGH S OF 21N...BETWEEN 78W AND 84W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
ARE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 68W AND
80W...EXCEPT GALE-FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE
REFER TO SPECIAL FEATURES. THE TAIL OF THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL
BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THE NEXT TWO DAYS DUE TO
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL ATLC WATERS.

HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT SUPPORTS FOG OVER WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND NORTHERN
HAITI. THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN CUBA AND
NW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT AND
WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD
FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N64W SW TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO THE NW CARIBBEAN
WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE HAPPENING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N31W.
THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT E TO THE CENTRAL ATLC FRIDAY WHERE IT
WILL STALL. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLC WATERS
SAT MORNING WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 111059
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN LATER THIS MORNING...LEADING TO GALE FORCE WINDS
ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND
76W. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY...PULSING BACK TO GALE
FORCE THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 09N13W TO 05N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 02N36W TO 00N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 19W AND 29W AND FROM 01N TO 06N
BETWEEN 32W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB
HIGH OVER WEST-CENTRAL WATERS NEAR 24N93W. GENTLE VARIABLE WIND
COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS WHERE
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED. WATER VAPOR AND CIRA LAYER
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE
BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BASE OF A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND SUPPORT THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN CUBA SW TO 19N84W TO 16N87W. THE REMNANTS OF A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ARE ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM 18N78W TO 11N82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH THE FRONT AND THE TROUGH. FRESH
TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE
TROUGH S OF 21N...BETWEEN 78W AND 84W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
ARE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 68W AND
80W...EXCEPT GALE-FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE
REFER TO SPECIAL FEATURES. THE TAIL OF THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL
BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THE NEXT TWO DAYS DUE TO
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL ATLC WATERS.

HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT SUPPORTS FOG OVER WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND NORTHERN
HAITI. THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN CUBA AND
NW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT AND
WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD
FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N64W SW TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO THE NW CARIBBEAN
WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE HAPPENING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N31W.
THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT E TO THE CENTRAL ATLC FRIDAY WHERE IT
WILL STALL. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLC WATERS
SAT MORNING WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 111059
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN LATER THIS MORNING...LEADING TO GALE FORCE WINDS
ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND
76W. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY...PULSING BACK TO GALE
FORCE THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 09N13W TO 05N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 02N36W TO 00N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 19W AND 29W AND FROM 01N TO 06N
BETWEEN 32W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB
HIGH OVER WEST-CENTRAL WATERS NEAR 24N93W. GENTLE VARIABLE WIND
COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS WHERE
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED. WATER VAPOR AND CIRA LAYER
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE
BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BASE OF A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND SUPPORT THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN CUBA SW TO 19N84W TO 16N87W. THE REMNANTS OF A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ARE ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM 18N78W TO 11N82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH THE FRONT AND THE TROUGH. FRESH
TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE
TROUGH S OF 21N...BETWEEN 78W AND 84W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
ARE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 68W AND
80W...EXCEPT GALE-FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE
REFER TO SPECIAL FEATURES. THE TAIL OF THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL
BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THE NEXT TWO DAYS DUE TO
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL ATLC WATERS.

HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT SUPPORTS FOG OVER WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND NORTHERN
HAITI. THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN CUBA AND
NW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT AND
WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD
FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N64W SW TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO THE NW CARIBBEAN
WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE HAPPENING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N31W.
THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT E TO THE CENTRAL ATLC FRIDAY WHERE IT
WILL STALL. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLC WATERS
SAT MORNING WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 111059
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN LATER THIS MORNING...LEADING TO GALE FORCE WINDS
ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND
76W. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY...PULSING BACK TO GALE
FORCE THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 09N13W TO 05N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 02N36W TO 00N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 19W AND 29W AND FROM 01N TO 06N
BETWEEN 32W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB
HIGH OVER WEST-CENTRAL WATERS NEAR 24N93W. GENTLE VARIABLE WIND
COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS WHERE
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED. WATER VAPOR AND CIRA LAYER
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE
BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BASE OF A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND SUPPORT THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN CUBA SW TO 19N84W TO 16N87W. THE REMNANTS OF A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ARE ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM 18N78W TO 11N82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH THE FRONT AND THE TROUGH. FRESH
TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE
TROUGH S OF 21N...BETWEEN 78W AND 84W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
ARE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 68W AND
80W...EXCEPT GALE-FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE
REFER TO SPECIAL FEATURES. THE TAIL OF THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL
BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THE NEXT TWO DAYS DUE TO
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL ATLC WATERS.

HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT SUPPORTS FOG OVER WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND NORTHERN
HAITI. THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN CUBA AND
NW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT AND
WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD
FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N64W SW TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO THE NW CARIBBEAN
WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE HAPPENING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N31W.
THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT E TO THE CENTRAL ATLC FRIDAY WHERE IT
WILL STALL. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLC WATERS
SAT MORNING WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110949
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED FEB 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 20 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
LATE THU MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ON
THU AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THU EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE SAT AT MINIMAL GALE WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF STRONG GALE
CONDITIONS ON LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNING...WITH MINIMAL GALE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUN AFTERNOON AND CONDITIONS DIMINISHING
BELOW GALE LATE SUN NIGHT. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE LARGE NE SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE SE THROUGH
SW...MERGING WITH E-NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
GALE EVENT...MERGING WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL AND ALSO
MERGING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 05N-11N BETWEEN 90W-103W THU AND
AGAIN ON SUN...WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 93W-110W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/
WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE THU...BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW
GALE FORCE AND AGAIN REACH MINIMAL GALE THU NIGHT LATE THROUGH
FRI AFTERNOON. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE
SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FLOW EXTENDING
AS FAR SW AS 06N95W...RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 15 FT
NEAR 09N89W ON THU. PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 11N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...INCLUDING THE
GULF OF FONSECA...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ONLY 10 FT IN THE
LIMITED FETCH. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N88W TO 03N94W TO 06N101W TO
07N111W TO 04N127W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 05N89W TO 06N113W.

...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE
FROM 25N120W TO 16N105W. THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO
MODERATE N-NE FLOW ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 108W-
120W THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. COMBINED SEAS ARE IN THE 3-6
FT RANGE PRIMARILY DUE TO LONG PERIOD SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL
AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. LARGE NW SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED
SEAS OF 7-10 FT...WILL ARRIVE NEAR 120W ON FRI AND REACH THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA ON FRI NIGHT...AND
REACH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA ON SAT...AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH SUN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 97W-
108W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED STRONG GALE EVENT OCCURRING
ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF 97W. MODERATE NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 04N W
OF ABOUT 86W. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
SPREAD S FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG ABOUT 04N EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 10 FT
NEAR 05N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF
NE TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 05N-13N W
OF 130W ON THU...WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE WIND
WAVES AND LONG PERIOD S AND N SWELL. NW LONG PERIOD SWELL...WITH
COMBINED SEAS OF 7-11 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
TROPICS W OF 110W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD FROM
THE WEST LATE THU AS ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW SWELL PROPAGATES
SE ACROSS THE TROPICS. A SURFACE HIGH MEANDERING NEAR 31N128W
CONTINUES TO BLOCK THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS. A
WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY WASHING OUT FROM 31N136W TO
27N140W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N139W TO 30N142W.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM 32N134W TO 25N140W ON FRI AND
QUICKLY DISSIPATE. ALTHOUGH EXPECTING ONLY A 10-15 KT SW-W-NW-N
WIND SHIFT WITH THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT LONG
PERIOD NW SWELL IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO
17 FT NEAR 30N140W ON THU NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE ON
FRI.

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 110603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN LATER THIS MORNING...LEADING TO GALE FORCE WINDS
ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND
76W. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY...PULSING BACK TO GALE
FORCE THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 09N13W TO 05N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 02N36W TO 00N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 19W AND 29W AND FROM 01N TO 06N
BETWEEN 32W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB
HIGH OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS NEAR 26N91W. GENTLE VARIABLE WIND
IS W OF 90W WHILE MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN
BASIN. WATER VAPOR AND CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER. HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH
EARLY SAT MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BASE OF A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND SUPPORT THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN CUBA SW TO 18N83W. WITH NO SUPPORT ALOFT...A STATIONARY
FRONT DISSIPATES FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA COASTAL WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE BETWEEN THESE TWO FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES IS LIKELY TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND OVER COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PANAMA...COSTA
RICA AND NICARAGUA. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS BETWEEN
THE FRONTS S OF 19N...BETWEEN 78W AND 86W. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES ARE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 66W
AND 78W. WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL INCREASE TO GALE-
FORCE LATER THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO SPECIAL FEATURES. THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL VANISH THU MORNING WHILE THE TAIL OF THE
COLD FRONT STALLS BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THE NEXT
TWO DAYS DUE TO HIGH PRES BUILDING IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL ATLC WATERS.

HISPANIOLA...

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE SW TO NORTHERN PANAMA COASTAL WATERS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
FRONT IS VANISH LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE TAIL OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN CUBA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND THU NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD
FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N66W SW TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO THE NW CARIBBEAN
WATERS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A STATIONARY FRONT DISSIPATES FROM
30N61W SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
HAPPENING BETWEEN THESE TWO BOUNDARIES BETWEEN 60W AND 69W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES ISLANDS.
LATER THIS MORNING...THE COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE REMNANTS
OF THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. THIS NEW BOUNDARY WILL THEN
DRIFT E TO THE CENTRAL ATLC FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 110603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN LATER THIS MORNING...LEADING TO GALE FORCE WINDS
ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND
76W. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY...PULSING BACK TO GALE
FORCE THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 09N13W TO 05N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 02N36W TO 00N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 19W AND 29W AND FROM 01N TO 06N
BETWEEN 32W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB
HIGH OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS NEAR 26N91W. GENTLE VARIABLE WIND
IS W OF 90W WHILE MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN
BASIN. WATER VAPOR AND CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER. HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH
EARLY SAT MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BASE OF A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND SUPPORT THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN CUBA SW TO 18N83W. WITH NO SUPPORT ALOFT...A STATIONARY
FRONT DISSIPATES FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA COASTAL WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE BETWEEN THESE TWO FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES IS LIKELY TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND OVER COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PANAMA...COSTA
RICA AND NICARAGUA. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS BETWEEN
THE FRONTS S OF 19N...BETWEEN 78W AND 86W. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES ARE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 66W
AND 78W. WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL INCREASE TO GALE-
FORCE LATER THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO SPECIAL FEATURES. THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL VANISH THU MORNING WHILE THE TAIL OF THE
COLD FRONT STALLS BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THE NEXT
TWO DAYS DUE TO HIGH PRES BUILDING IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL ATLC WATERS.

HISPANIOLA...

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE SW TO NORTHERN PANAMA COASTAL WATERS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
FRONT IS VANISH LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE TAIL OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN CUBA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND THU NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD
FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N66W SW TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO THE NW CARIBBEAN
WATERS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A STATIONARY FRONT DISSIPATES FROM
30N61W SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
HAPPENING BETWEEN THESE TWO BOUNDARIES BETWEEN 60W AND 69W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES ISLANDS.
LATER THIS MORNING...THE COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE REMNANTS
OF THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. THIS NEW BOUNDARY WILL THEN
DRIFT E TO THE CENTRAL ATLC FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 110603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN LATER THIS MORNING...LEADING TO GALE FORCE WINDS
ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND
76W. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY...PULSING BACK TO GALE
FORCE THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 09N13W TO 05N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 02N36W TO 00N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 19W AND 29W AND FROM 01N TO 06N
BETWEEN 32W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB
HIGH OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS NEAR 26N91W. GENTLE VARIABLE WIND
IS W OF 90W WHILE MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN
BASIN. WATER VAPOR AND CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER. HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH
EARLY SAT MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BASE OF A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND SUPPORT THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN CUBA SW TO 18N83W. WITH NO SUPPORT ALOFT...A STATIONARY
FRONT DISSIPATES FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA COASTAL WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE BETWEEN THESE TWO FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES IS LIKELY TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND OVER COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PANAMA...COSTA
RICA AND NICARAGUA. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS BETWEEN
THE FRONTS S OF 19N...BETWEEN 78W AND 86W. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES ARE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 66W
AND 78W. WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL INCREASE TO GALE-
FORCE LATER THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO SPECIAL FEATURES. THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL VANISH THU MORNING WHILE THE TAIL OF THE
COLD FRONT STALLS BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THE NEXT
TWO DAYS DUE TO HIGH PRES BUILDING IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL ATLC WATERS.

HISPANIOLA...

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE SW TO NORTHERN PANAMA COASTAL WATERS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
FRONT IS VANISH LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE TAIL OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN CUBA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND THU NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD
FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N66W SW TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO THE NW CARIBBEAN
WATERS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A STATIONARY FRONT DISSIPATES FROM
30N61W SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
HAPPENING BETWEEN THESE TWO BOUNDARIES BETWEEN 60W AND 69W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES ISLANDS.
LATER THIS MORNING...THE COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE REMNANTS
OF THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. THIS NEW BOUNDARY WILL THEN
DRIFT E TO THE CENTRAL ATLC FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110322
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU FEB 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 20 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
LATE THU MORNING...THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE
CONDITIONS ON THU AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THU EVENING. THE GRADIENT
WILL IMMEDIATELY TIGHTEN AGAIN INCREASING THE FLOW TO STRONG GALE FORCE
BEGINNING LATE THU NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUN MORNING...
WITH MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUN AFTERNOON AND CONDITIONS
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE LATE SUN NIGHT.
THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE NE SWELL
THAT WILL PROPAGATE SE THROUGH SW...MERGING WITH ENE SWELL
GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT...MERGING WITH
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL AND ALSO MERGING WITH LONG PERIOD NW
SWELL. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM
04-10N BETWEEN 90-103W TONIGHT AND THU AND GAIN ON SUN...WITH SEAS
 8 FT OR GREATER
REACHING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 93-110W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE ON FRI. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE
SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR FLOW EXTENDING AS
FAR SW AS 07N96W...RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 15 FT
NEAR 09N88W ON THU. PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON THU NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 12N
BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO ONLY 9 FT IN THE LIMITED FETCH. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS NEAR 03N89W AND
EXTENDS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N110W THEN TURNS SW
TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED OVER AND TO THE N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 150 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N86W TO 07N114W.

...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE
FROM 25N120W TO 17N102W. THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO
MODERATE N-NE FLOW ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 108-
120W THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. COMBINED SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5
FT RANGE PRIMARILY DUE TO LONG PERIOD SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL
AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. LARGE NW SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED
SEAS OF 7-10 FT...WILL ARRIVE AT 28N102W ON FRI AND REACH THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA ON FRI NIGHT...AND
REACH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA ON SAT...AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH SUN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 97-
108W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED STRONG GALE EVENT OCCURRING
ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF 97W. MODERATE NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 04N W
OF ABOUT 86W. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
SPREAD S FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG ABOUT 04N EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT
10 FT NEAR 06N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM 00-32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 06-12N W OF 130W
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE WINDS WAVE
AND LONG PERIOD S AND N SWELL. NW LONG PERIOD SWELL...WITH
COMBINED SEAS OF 7-11 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
TROPICS W OF 110W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
EARLY THU...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD FROM THE W AGAIN LATE THU AS
ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW SWELL PROPAGATES SE ACROSS THE
TROPICS. A SURFACE HIGH MEANDERING NEAR 31N127W CONTINUES TO
BLOCK THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS. A STATIONARY
FRONT IS CURRENTLY WASHING OUT FROM 32N129W TO 25N140W AND A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N138W TO 30N143W. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
STALL FROM 32N132W TO 25N140W ON FRI AND QUICKLY DISSIPATE.
ALTHOUGH EXPECTING ONLY A 10-15 KT SW-W-NW-N WIND SHIFT WITH THE
FRONT THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT LONG PERIOD NW SWELL BEHIND THE
FRONT WHICH WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 17 FT NEAR 30N140W ON THU
NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE ON FRI.

$$
NELSON



000
AXNT20 KNHC 102334
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...AS OF 2100 UTC...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
DEPICTED IN LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG AND N OF 31N.
THEREFORE...THE GALE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE
REGION S OF 31N. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT1/FZNT01 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY THURSDAY ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N-
13N BETWEEN 73W-76W. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY...PULSING
BACK TO GALE FORCE BY EARLY FRIDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 06N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 02N37W TO 00N48W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N95W. WITH THIS...A GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE E ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF. FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. THE SURFACE RIDGE
THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS THE W
CARIBBEAN ALSO...MAINLY W OF 80W. TO THE E OF THIS...A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W
TO 09N82W. CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED TO THE
W OF THE FRONT AFFECTING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA....CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND PORTIONS OF CUBA...JAMAICA AND SURROUNDING
ISLANDS. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WHILE GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO BEGIN
WEAKENING AS ITS NORTHERN PORTION MERGES WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
AND MOVES E ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE BUILDING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ENTERING
THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WITH THIS...CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MERGE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT AND MOVE E ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE W ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 23N81W TO
32N69W. GALE FORCE WINDS PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY N OF
31N. PLEASE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. TO THE E...A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 21N75W TO 32N62W. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 20N73W TO 32N59W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A STATIONARY 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N31W.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONTS TO MOVE E.
THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT. THIS NEW BOUNDARY WILL THEN DRIFT E WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 102334
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...AS OF 2100 UTC...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
DEPICTED IN LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG AND N OF 31N.
THEREFORE...THE GALE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE
REGION S OF 31N. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT1/FZNT01 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY THURSDAY ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N-
13N BETWEEN 73W-76W. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY...PULSING
BACK TO GALE FORCE BY EARLY FRIDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 06N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 02N37W TO 00N48W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N95W. WITH THIS...A GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE E ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF. FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. THE SURFACE RIDGE
THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS THE W
CARIBBEAN ALSO...MAINLY W OF 80W. TO THE E OF THIS...A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W
TO 09N82W. CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED TO THE
W OF THE FRONT AFFECTING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA....CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND PORTIONS OF CUBA...JAMAICA AND SURROUNDING
ISLANDS. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WHILE GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO BEGIN
WEAKENING AS ITS NORTHERN PORTION MERGES WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
AND MOVES E ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE BUILDING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ENTERING
THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WITH THIS...CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MERGE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT AND MOVE E ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE W ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 23N81W TO
32N69W. GALE FORCE WINDS PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY N OF
31N. PLEASE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. TO THE E...A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 21N75W TO 32N62W. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 20N73W TO 32N59W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A STATIONARY 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N31W.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONTS TO MOVE E.
THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT. THIS NEW BOUNDARY WILL THEN DRIFT E WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 102334
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...AS OF 2100 UTC...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
DEPICTED IN LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG AND N OF 31N.
THEREFORE...THE GALE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE
REGION S OF 31N. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT1/FZNT01 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY THURSDAY ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N-
13N BETWEEN 73W-76W. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY...PULSING
BACK TO GALE FORCE BY EARLY FRIDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 06N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 02N37W TO 00N48W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N95W. WITH THIS...A GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE E ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF. FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. THE SURFACE RIDGE
THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS THE W
CARIBBEAN ALSO...MAINLY W OF 80W. TO THE E OF THIS...A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W
TO 09N82W. CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED TO THE
W OF THE FRONT AFFECTING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA....CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND PORTIONS OF CUBA...JAMAICA AND SURROUNDING
ISLANDS. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WHILE GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO BEGIN
WEAKENING AS ITS NORTHERN PORTION MERGES WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
AND MOVES E ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE BUILDING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ENTERING
THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WITH THIS...CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MERGE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT AND MOVE E ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE W ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 23N81W TO
32N69W. GALE FORCE WINDS PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY N OF
31N. PLEASE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. TO THE E...A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 21N75W TO 32N62W. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 20N73W TO 32N59W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A STATIONARY 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N31W.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONTS TO MOVE E.
THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT. THIS NEW BOUNDARY WILL THEN DRIFT E WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102151
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED FEB 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 20 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
LATE THU MORNING...THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE
CONDITIONS ON THU AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN INCREASING THE FLOW TO STRONG GALE FORCE
BEGINNING LATE THU NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUN MORNING.
THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE NE SWELL
THAT WILL PROPAGATE SE THROUGH SW...MERGING WITH ENE SWELL
GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT...MERGING WITH
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL AND ALSO MERGING WITH LONG PERIOD NW
SWELL. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM
04-10N BETWEEN 90-103W TONIGHT...WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER
REACHING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 93-110W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN EARLY TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE ON FRI. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE
SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR FLOW EXTENDING AS
FAR SW AS 07N96W...RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 15 FT
NEAR 09N89W ON THU. PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON THU NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 12N
BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO ONLY 8 FT IN THE LIMITED FETCH. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS NEAR 03N89W AND
EXTENDS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N111W THEN TURNS SW
TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED OVER AND TO THE N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 150 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N87W TO 08N111W TO 05N120W.

...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE
FROM 25N120W TO 17N102W. THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO
MODERATE N-NE FLOW ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 108-
120W THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. COMBINED SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5
FT RANGE PRIMARILY DUE TO LONG PERIOD SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL
AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. LARGE NW SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED
SEAS OF 7-10 FT...WILL ARRIVE AT 28N102W ON FRI AND REACH THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA ON FRI NIGHT...AND
REACH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA ON SAT...AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH SUN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 97-
108W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED STRONG GALE EVENT OCCURRING
ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF 97W. MODERATE NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 04N W
OF 86W. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S
FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 9 FT NEAR
06N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM 00-32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 06-12N W OF 125W
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE WINDS WAVE
AND LONG PERIOD S AND N SWELL. NW LONG PERIOD SWELL...WITH
COMBINED SEAS OF 7-11 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
TROPICS W OF 110W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
EARLY THU...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD FROM THE W AGAIN LATE THU AS
ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW SWELL PROPAGATES SE ACROSS THE
TROPICS. A SURFACE HIGH MEANDERING NEAR 31N127W CONTINUES TO
BLOCK THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS. A STATIONARY
FRONT IS CURRENTLY WASHING OUT FROM 32N129W TO 25N140W AND A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N138W TO 30N143W. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
STALL FROM 32N132W TO 25N140W ON FRI AND QUICKLY DISSIPATE.
ALTHOUGH EXPECTING ONLY A 10-15 KT SW-W-NW-N WIND SHIFT WITH THE
FRONT THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT LONG PERIOD NW SWELL BEHIND THE
FRONT WHICH WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 17 FT NEAR 30N140W ON THU
NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE ON FRI.

$$
NELSON



000
AXNT20 KNHC 101739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLC GALE WARNING...LEADING COLD FRONT IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDS FROM 32N63W TO 23N72W ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N75W. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT TRAILS FROM 32N72W ALONG 27N76W TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE W OF THE
LEADING COLD FRONT N OF 27N W OF 68W. THESE GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT
ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING
THEN PULSE AGAIN THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N11W ALONG 10N17W TO 6N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 4N30W 2N39W THEN SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS AND W ATLC INCLUDING THE N
GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE SUPPORTED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE W
ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER E TEXAS. SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE S GULF IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE S GULF.
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF LINE
FROM FLORIDA KEYS ALONG 23N89W TO CABO ROJO MEXICO. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHEN THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE N GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF VENEZUELA ACROSS
PUERTO RICO INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE BASIN. A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS NW HAITI NEAR
20N73W ALONG THE E TIP OF JAMAICA THEN S ALONG 14N80W TO OFF THE
COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 10N82W. THE LEADING COLD FRONT IS JUST TO
THE W EXTENDING ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N75W JUST W OF JAMAICA TO
NE HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W. BROKEN TO OVER LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 20N W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
TO 83W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
E MERGING WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MERGED FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THU. THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUILD OVER THE CARIBBEAN IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT HELPING TO INCREASE TRADE WINDS TO
GALE FORCE OFF NE COLOMBIA TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NW HAITI WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT W OF THE ISLAND WILL MERGE WITH THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT NW HAITI THIS AFTERNOON. THE MERGED FRONT WILL
DRIFT E ACROSS THE ISLAND AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THU. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MERGED FRONT WILL BE MINIMAL BUT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A SERIES OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES. TO THE E IS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N60W ALONG 25N67W TO ACROSS NW HAITI NEAR 20N73W. THE
LEADING COLD FRONT EXTENDS JUST TO THE W ALONG 32N63W ALONG
26N68W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO OVER E CUBA AND INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N75W. A THIRD REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS
FURTHER W ALONG 32N72W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS TO 24N81W. BROKEN TO OVER MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE W ATLC W OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT TO 80W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BETWEEN THE COLD FRONTS. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 60W
ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NEAR 32N32W. THE LEADING COLD FRONT
WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
DRIFTING E REACHING FROM 32N53W TO 20N70W FRI MORNING WHERE IT
WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE. THE NEXT FRONT THE ENTER THE W ATLC
WILL MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA COAST LATE FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 101739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLC GALE WARNING...LEADING COLD FRONT IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDS FROM 32N63W TO 23N72W ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N75W. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT TRAILS FROM 32N72W ALONG 27N76W TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE W OF THE
LEADING COLD FRONT N OF 27N W OF 68W. THESE GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT
ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING
THEN PULSE AGAIN THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N11W ALONG 10N17W TO 6N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 4N30W 2N39W THEN SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS AND W ATLC INCLUDING THE N
GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE SUPPORTED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE W
ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER E TEXAS. SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE S GULF IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE S GULF.
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF LINE
FROM FLORIDA KEYS ALONG 23N89W TO CABO ROJO MEXICO. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHEN THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE N GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF VENEZUELA ACROSS
PUERTO RICO INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE BASIN. A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS NW HAITI NEAR
20N73W ALONG THE E TIP OF JAMAICA THEN S ALONG 14N80W TO OFF THE
COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 10N82W. THE LEADING COLD FRONT IS JUST TO
THE W EXTENDING ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N75W JUST W OF JAMAICA TO
NE HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W. BROKEN TO OVER LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 20N W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
TO 83W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
E MERGING WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MERGED FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THU. THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUILD OVER THE CARIBBEAN IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT HELPING TO INCREASE TRADE WINDS TO
GALE FORCE OFF NE COLOMBIA TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NW HAITI WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT W OF THE ISLAND WILL MERGE WITH THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT NW HAITI THIS AFTERNOON. THE MERGED FRONT WILL
DRIFT E ACROSS THE ISLAND AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THU. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MERGED FRONT WILL BE MINIMAL BUT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A SERIES OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES. TO THE E IS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N60W ALONG 25N67W TO ACROSS NW HAITI NEAR 20N73W. THE
LEADING COLD FRONT EXTENDS JUST TO THE W ALONG 32N63W ALONG
26N68W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO OVER E CUBA AND INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N75W. A THIRD REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS
FURTHER W ALONG 32N72W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS TO 24N81W. BROKEN TO OVER MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE W ATLC W OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT TO 80W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BETWEEN THE COLD FRONTS. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 60W
ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NEAR 32N32W. THE LEADING COLD FRONT
WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
DRIFTING E REACHING FROM 32N53W TO 20N70W FRI MORNING WHERE IT
WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE. THE NEXT FRONT THE ENTER THE W ATLC
WILL MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA COAST LATE FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 101739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLC GALE WARNING...LEADING COLD FRONT IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDS FROM 32N63W TO 23N72W ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N75W. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT TRAILS FROM 32N72W ALONG 27N76W TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE W OF THE
LEADING COLD FRONT N OF 27N W OF 68W. THESE GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT
ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING
THEN PULSE AGAIN THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N11W ALONG 10N17W TO 6N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 4N30W 2N39W THEN SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS AND W ATLC INCLUDING THE N
GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE SUPPORTED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE W
ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER E TEXAS. SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE S GULF IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE S GULF.
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF LINE
FROM FLORIDA KEYS ALONG 23N89W TO CABO ROJO MEXICO. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHEN THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE N GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF VENEZUELA ACROSS
PUERTO RICO INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE BASIN. A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS NW HAITI NEAR
20N73W ALONG THE E TIP OF JAMAICA THEN S ALONG 14N80W TO OFF THE
COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 10N82W. THE LEADING COLD FRONT IS JUST TO
THE W EXTENDING ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N75W JUST W OF JAMAICA TO
NE HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W. BROKEN TO OVER LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 20N W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
TO 83W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
E MERGING WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MERGED FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THU. THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUILD OVER THE CARIBBEAN IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT HELPING TO INCREASE TRADE WINDS TO
GALE FORCE OFF NE COLOMBIA TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NW HAITI WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT W OF THE ISLAND WILL MERGE WITH THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT NW HAITI THIS AFTERNOON. THE MERGED FRONT WILL
DRIFT E ACROSS THE ISLAND AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THU. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MERGED FRONT WILL BE MINIMAL BUT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A SERIES OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES. TO THE E IS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N60W ALONG 25N67W TO ACROSS NW HAITI NEAR 20N73W. THE
LEADING COLD FRONT EXTENDS JUST TO THE W ALONG 32N63W ALONG
26N68W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO OVER E CUBA AND INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N75W. A THIRD REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS
FURTHER W ALONG 32N72W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS TO 24N81W. BROKEN TO OVER MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE W ATLC W OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT TO 80W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BETWEEN THE COLD FRONTS. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 60W
ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NEAR 32N32W. THE LEADING COLD FRONT
WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
DRIFTING E REACHING FROM 32N53W TO 20N70W FRI MORNING WHERE IT
WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE. THE NEXT FRONT THE ENTER THE W ATLC
WILL MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA COAST LATE FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101534
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE FEB 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40-45 KT ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH FRI
MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THE ITCZ TO
THE SW AND HIGH PRES TO THE N OVER WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
MAXIMUM SEAS IN THE 14-19 FT RANGE WILL PERSIST S OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FRI MORNING.
THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE NE SWELL
THAT WILL PROPAGATE S-SW...MERGING WITH E-NE SWELL GENERATED
FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT. THIS COMBINED SWELL WILL
ALLOW FOR 10-14 FT SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN
90W-102W TONIGHT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF
PAPAGAYO TODAY THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE THIS
EVENING BEFORE RETURNING EARLY THU MORNING THROUGH SUNRISE FRI
MORNING. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE SURROUNDED
BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FLOW EXTENDING AS FAR SW
AS 06N101W...RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 10-14 FT WELL
DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS DESCRIBED WITH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING ABOVE. A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IS ALSO
EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF FONSECA TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT UNDER THE
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 03N86W TO 03N95W TO 06N110W TO
02N124W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 86W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM N AND 60 NM S OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 103W-118W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 1024 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 32N127W
TO 20N110W. N-NE WINDS OF 5-15 KT CAN BE FOUND ACROSS THE OPEN
PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 110W-120W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
OBSERVED BETWEEN 97W-107W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED GALE
EVENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF 97W. MODERATE TO
OCCASIONAL FRESH NW FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI.

EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...
FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 04N W OF 86W. A FRESH TO
STRONG N-NE BREEZE WILL PERSIST FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA S-SW TO
NEAR 03N82W THROUGH FRI MORNING...WITH THE AREAL EXTENT OF THESE
WINDS BECOMING SLIGHTLY LARGER IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
SHRINKING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SEAS OF 8-9 FT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADES WILL IMPACT THE TROPICS
FROM ABOUT 07N-13N W OF 128W THROUGH THU MORNING...WITH MAXIMUM
SEAS OF 8-11 FT WHERE NE WINDS WAVE AND LONG PERIOD SW AND NW
SWELL ARE MIXING. TO THE N...NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N130W TO 24N140W HAS BROUGHT 8-11 FT
SEAS TO THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 130W...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS IN
NW WATERS. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS THU AND
SWEEP LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL AND SEAS OVER 8 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA W OF 120W BY FRI MORNING. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
TO 32N132W TO 25N140W BY FRI MORNING. PERIODS IN EXCESS OF 20
SECONDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL TRAIN
WHICH SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE EARLY FRI
MORNING WITH SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE. THIS SWELL MAY MAKE FOR
LARGE SURF AND DANGEROUS CONDITIONS EXITING AND ENTERING PORTS.

$$
SCHAUER



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101153 CCA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1155 UTC TUE FEB 10 2015

CORRECTED FOR ISSUANCE TIME

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 19 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
LATE THU MORNING...THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE
CONDITIONS ON THU AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUIDANCE THEN
SUGGESTS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN INCREASING THE FLOW TO
STRONG GALE FORCE ON FRI THROUGH EARLY SUN. THIS ONGOING GALE
EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE NE SWELL THAT WILL
PROPAGATE S-SW MERGING WITH E-NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 90W-102W ON WED NIGHT...
WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 93W-110W.
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED MORNING THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...THEN DEVELOP AGAIN WED
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE
CONDITIONS WILL BE SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FLOW EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 07N93W...RESULTING IN SEAS
BUILDING TO ABOUT 15 FT NEAR 09N88W. PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N
OF 11N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA...
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 9 FT IN THE LIMITED FETCH. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N87W TO 04N98W TO 06N108W TO 02N125W TO
03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 06N
BETWEEN 88W AND 99W...AND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 104W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM
24N120W TO 19N110W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N-NE
WINDS OF 5-15 KT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 107W-
120W...AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 97W-107W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED GALE EVENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF
97W. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH NW FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 04N W
OF 86W. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S
FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9-10 FT NEAR 05N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM 00N-32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 067-12N W OF 130W
THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE
WINDS WAVE AND LONG PERIOD S AND N SWELL. NW LONG PERIOD
SWELL...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 110W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH WED...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN THU AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
LARGE NW SWELL PROPAGATES SE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
REACHING NEAR 32N136W TO 26N140W LATE THU. THIS FRONT WILL BE
PRECEDED BY FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 27N-32N W OF 137W BRIEFLY ON WED NIGHT.

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101153 CCA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1155 UTC TUE FEB 10 2015

CORRECTED FOR ISSUANCE TIME

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 19 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
LATE THU MORNING...THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE
CONDITIONS ON THU AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUIDANCE THEN
SUGGESTS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN INCREASING THE FLOW TO
STRONG GALE FORCE ON FRI THROUGH EARLY SUN. THIS ONGOING GALE
EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE NE SWELL THAT WILL
PROPAGATE S-SW MERGING WITH E-NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 90W-102W ON WED NIGHT...
WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 93W-110W.
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED MORNING THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...THEN DEVELOP AGAIN WED
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE
CONDITIONS WILL BE SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FLOW EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 07N93W...RESULTING IN SEAS
BUILDING TO ABOUT 15 FT NEAR 09N88W. PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N
OF 11N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA...
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 9 FT IN THE LIMITED FETCH. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N87W TO 04N98W TO 06N108W TO 02N125W TO
03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 06N
BETWEEN 88W AND 99W...AND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 104W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM
24N120W TO 19N110W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N-NE
WINDS OF 5-15 KT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 107W-
120W...AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 97W-107W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED GALE EVENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF
97W. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH NW FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 04N W
OF 86W. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S
FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9-10 FT NEAR 05N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM 00N-32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 067-12N W OF 130W
THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE
WINDS WAVE AND LONG PERIOD S AND N SWELL. NW LONG PERIOD
SWELL...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 110W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH WED...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN THU AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
LARGE NW SWELL PROPAGATES SE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
REACHING NEAR 32N136W TO 26N140W LATE THU. THIS FRONT WILL BE
PRECEDED BY FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 27N-32N W OF 137W BRIEFLY ON WED NIGHT.

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101153 CCA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1155 UTC TUE FEB 10 2015

CORRECTED FOR ISSUANCE TIME

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 19 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
LATE THU MORNING...THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE
CONDITIONS ON THU AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUIDANCE THEN
SUGGESTS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN INCREASING THE FLOW TO
STRONG GALE FORCE ON FRI THROUGH EARLY SUN. THIS ONGOING GALE
EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE NE SWELL THAT WILL
PROPAGATE S-SW MERGING WITH E-NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 90W-102W ON WED NIGHT...
WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 93W-110W.
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED MORNING THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...THEN DEVELOP AGAIN WED
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE
CONDITIONS WILL BE SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FLOW EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 07N93W...RESULTING IN SEAS
BUILDING TO ABOUT 15 FT NEAR 09N88W. PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N
OF 11N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA...
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 9 FT IN THE LIMITED FETCH. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N87W TO 04N98W TO 06N108W TO 02N125W TO
03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 06N
BETWEEN 88W AND 99W...AND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 104W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM
24N120W TO 19N110W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N-NE
WINDS OF 5-15 KT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 107W-
120W...AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 97W-107W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED GALE EVENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF
97W. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH NW FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 04N W
OF 86W. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S
FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9-10 FT NEAR 05N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM 00N-32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 067-12N W OF 130W
THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE
WINDS WAVE AND LONG PERIOD S AND N SWELL. NW LONG PERIOD
SWELL...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 110W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH WED...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN THU AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
LARGE NW SWELL PROPAGATES SE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
REACHING NEAR 32N136W TO 26N140W LATE THU. THIS FRONT WILL BE
PRECEDED BY FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 27N-32N W OF 137W BRIEFLY ON WED NIGHT.

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 101116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 31N65W TO 22N76W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 27N W
OF 77W. SEAS IN THIS REGION RANGE FROM 12 TO 16 FT. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE BY EARLY THU MORNING.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SW N
ATLC TO THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MERGE WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
AHEAD OF IT LATER TODAY. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN LEADING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF
COLOMBIA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...PULSING AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LIBERIA AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W TO 04N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N32W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
00N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 20W AND 23W AND W OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE HAS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SW N ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE
RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE NW GULF BY A 1027 MB HIGH THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE E TO OVER NORTH CENTRAL WATERS BY EARLY THU.
FRESH TO STRONG NW WIND COVERS THE BASIN E OF 90W AS WELL AS
LOUISIANA ADJACENT WATERS N OF 25N. LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIABLE
FLOW DOMINATES ELSEWHERE AND IS FORECAST TO EXPAND TO EASTERN
WATERS LATER THIS MORNING AS THE BROAD LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC MOVES NE...THUS REDUCING THE PRES
GRADIENT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SW N ATLC WATERS AND ENTERS THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS EASTERN CUBA FROM 20N77W AND CONTINUES SW ALONG
18N82W TO WESTERN HONDURAS COASTAL WATERS. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
SW TO EASTERN JAMAICA TO COSTA RICA COASTAL WATERS. SHALLOW
MOISTURE BETWEEN THESE FRONTS AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUPPORT
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN 78W AND 84W. FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO BETWEEN THE FRONTS S OF 19N. FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES ARE AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE-FORCE BY EARLY
THU MORNING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SE AND WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT LATER
TODAY...THEN DISSIPATE THU NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT STABLE AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND.
CLOUDINESS IS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN HAITI AS A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...POSSIBLY ENHANCING
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MERGE WITH THIS FRONT LATER TODAY AND WILL
STALL THROUGH THU NIGHT WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE.
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING AND THU
NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N65W TO
22N76W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 27N W OF 77W. SEAS IN THIS
REGION RANGE FROM 12 TO 16 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
BELOW GALE-FORCE BY EARLY THU MORNING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. TO
THE E...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N61W TO 20N73W THEN
INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN
BOTH BOUNDARIES. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN E OF 65W...ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT LATER TODAY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO CENTRAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH LATE FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100951
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE FEB 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 19 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
LATE THU MORNING...THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE
CONDITIONS ON THU AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUIDANCE THEN
SUGGESTS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN INCREASING THE FLOW TO
STRONG GALE FORCE ON FRI THROUGH EARLY SUN. THIS ONGOING GALE
EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE NE SWELL THAT WILL
PROPAGATE S-SW MERGING WITH E-NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 90W-102W ON WED NIGHT...
WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 93W-110W.
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED MORNING THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...THEN DEVELOP AGAIN WED
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE
CONDITIONS WILL BE SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FLOW EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 07N93W...RESULTING IN SEAS
BUILDING TO ABOUT 15 FT NEAR 09N88W. PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N
OF 11N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA...
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 9 FT IN THE LIMITED FETCH. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N87W TO 04N98W TO 06N108W TO 02N125W TO
03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 06N
BETWEEN 88W AND 99W...AND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 104W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM
24N120W TO 19N110W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N-NE
WINDS OF 5-15 KT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 107W-
120W...AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 97W-107W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED GALE EVENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF
97W. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH NW FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 04N W
OF 86W. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S
FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9-10 FT NEAR 05N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM 00N-32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 067-12N W OF 130W
THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE
WINDS WAVE AND LONG PERIOD S AND N SWELL. NW LONG PERIOD
SWELL...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 110W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH WED...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN THU AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
LARGE NW SWELL PROPAGATES SE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
REACHING NEAR 32N136W TO 26N140W LATE THU. THIS FRONT WILL BE
PRECEDED BY FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 27N-32N W OF 137W BRIEFLY ON WED NIGHT.

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100951
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE FEB 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 19 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
LATE THU MORNING...THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE
CONDITIONS ON THU AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUIDANCE THEN
SUGGESTS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN INCREASING THE FLOW TO
STRONG GALE FORCE ON FRI THROUGH EARLY SUN. THIS ONGOING GALE
EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE NE SWELL THAT WILL
PROPAGATE S-SW MERGING WITH E-NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 90W-102W ON WED NIGHT...
WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 93W-110W.
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED MORNING THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...THEN DEVELOP AGAIN WED
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE
CONDITIONS WILL BE SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FLOW EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 07N93W...RESULTING IN SEAS
BUILDING TO ABOUT 15 FT NEAR 09N88W. PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N
OF 11N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA...
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 9 FT IN THE LIMITED FETCH. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N87W TO 04N98W TO 06N108W TO 02N125W TO
03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 06N
BETWEEN 88W AND 99W...AND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 104W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM
24N120W TO 19N110W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N-NE
WINDS OF 5-15 KT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 107W-
120W...AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 97W-107W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED GALE EVENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF
97W. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH NW FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 04N W
OF 86W. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S
FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9-10 FT NEAR 05N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM 00N-32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 067-12N W OF 130W
THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE
WINDS WAVE AND LONG PERIOD S AND N SWELL. NW LONG PERIOD
SWELL...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 110W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH WED...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN THU AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
LARGE NW SWELL PROPAGATES SE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
REACHING NEAR 32N136W TO 26N140W LATE THU. THIS FRONT WILL BE
PRECEDED BY FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 27N-32N W OF 137W BRIEFLY ON WED NIGHT.

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 100604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 30N67W TO 21N76W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 27N
WITHIN 270 NM E OF FRONT AND W OF FRONT TO 80W. SEAS IN THIS
REGION RANGE FROM 9 TO 15 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
BELOW GALE-FORCE BY WED NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
BROAD SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE SW N
ATLC AND HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE NE BASIN N OF 28N E OF
87W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SW N
ATLC TO THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MERGE WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
AHEAD OF IT WED NIGHT WHILE BROAD AND STRONG HIGH PRES COVERING
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WILL MOVE WEST. THIS SCENARIO WILL
INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN LEADING TO GALE
FORCE WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LIBERIA AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 05N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N32W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
00N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 20W AND 23W AND W OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SW N ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN
WATERS. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE NW GULF BY A 1028 MB HIGH
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E TO OVER NORTH CENTRAL WATERS BY WED
NIGHT. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE BROAD
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE NE BASIN N OF 28N E OF
87W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. EXCEPT FOR THE AREA OF FREQUENT
GUST TO GALE FORCE WINDS...FRESH TO STRONG NW WIND COVERS THE
BASIN E OF 90W AS WELL AS LOUISIANA ADJACENT WATERS N OF 25N.
LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIABLE FLOW DOMINATES ELSEWHERE AND IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND TO EASTERN WATERS LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
BROAD LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVES NE...THUS
REDUCING THE PRES GRADIENT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SW N ATLC WATERS AND ENTERS THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS EASTERN CUBA FROM 20N77W AND CONTINUES SW ALONG
16N82W...ACROSS HONDURAS COASTAL WATERS...ACROSS SOUTHERN BELIZE
TO NORTHERN GUATEMALA. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO EASTERN JAMAICA TO
NORTHERN PANAMA COASTAL WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE BETWEEN THESE
FRONTS AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS BETWEEN 76W AND 83W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS
ALSO BETWEEN THE FRONTS S OF 18N. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE
AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE-FORCE BY EARLY THU MORNING. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND
WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT WED NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT STABLE AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND.
CLOUDINESS IS MAINLY OVER THE NW ISLAND AS A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...POSSIBLY ENHANCING
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MERGE WITH THIS FRONT WED NIGHT. SHOWERS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE ISLAND WED THROUGH THU NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N67W TO
21N76W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 27N WITHIN 270 NM E OF FRONT
AND W OF FRONT TO 80W. SEAS IN THIS REGION RANGE FROM 9 TO 15
FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE BY WED
NIGHT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. TO THE E...A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 30N62W TO 20N73W THEN INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN BOTH BOUNDARIES. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF 65W
ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT WED NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO CENTRAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH LATE FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS



000
AXNT20 KNHC 100604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 30N67W TO 21N76W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 27N
WITHIN 270 NM E OF FRONT AND W OF FRONT TO 80W. SEAS IN THIS
REGION RANGE FROM 9 TO 15 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
BELOW GALE-FORCE BY WED NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
BROAD SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE SW N
ATLC AND HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE NE BASIN N OF 28N E OF
87W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SW N
ATLC TO THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MERGE WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
AHEAD OF IT WED NIGHT WHILE BROAD AND STRONG HIGH PRES COVERING
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WILL MOVE WEST. THIS SCENARIO WILL
INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN LEADING TO GALE
FORCE WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LIBERIA AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 05N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N32W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
00N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 20W AND 23W AND W OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SW N ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN
WATERS. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE NW GULF BY A 1028 MB HIGH
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E TO OVER NORTH CENTRAL WATERS BY WED
NIGHT. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE BROAD
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE NE BASIN N OF 28N E OF
87W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. EXCEPT FOR THE AREA OF FREQUENT
GUST TO GALE FORCE WINDS...FRESH TO STRONG NW WIND COVERS THE
BASIN E OF 90W AS WELL AS LOUISIANA ADJACENT WATERS N OF 25N.
LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIABLE FLOW DOMINATES ELSEWHERE AND IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND TO EASTERN WATERS LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
BROAD LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVES NE...THUS
REDUCING THE PRES GRADIENT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SW N ATLC WATERS AND ENTERS THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS EASTERN CUBA FROM 20N77W AND CONTINUES SW ALONG
16N82W...ACROSS HONDURAS COASTAL WATERS...ACROSS SOUTHERN BELIZE
TO NORTHERN GUATEMALA. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO EASTERN JAMAICA TO
NORTHERN PANAMA COASTAL WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE BETWEEN THESE
FRONTS AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS BETWEEN 76W AND 83W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS
ALSO BETWEEN THE FRONTS S OF 18N. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE
AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE-FORCE BY EARLY THU MORNING. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND
WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT WED NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT STABLE AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND.
CLOUDINESS IS MAINLY OVER THE NW ISLAND AS A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...POSSIBLY ENHANCING
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MERGE WITH THIS FRONT WED NIGHT. SHOWERS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE ISLAND WED THROUGH THU NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N67W TO
21N76W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 27N WITHIN 270 NM E OF FRONT
AND W OF FRONT TO 80W. SEAS IN THIS REGION RANGE FROM 9 TO 15
FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE BY WED
NIGHT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. TO THE E...A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 30N62W TO 20N73W THEN INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN BOTH BOUNDARIES. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF 65W
ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT WED NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO CENTRAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH LATE FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 100604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 30N67W TO 21N76W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 27N
WITHIN 270 NM E OF FRONT AND W OF FRONT TO 80W. SEAS IN THIS
REGION RANGE FROM 9 TO 15 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
BELOW GALE-FORCE BY WED NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
BROAD SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE SW N
ATLC AND HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE NE BASIN N OF 28N E OF
87W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SW N
ATLC TO THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MERGE WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
AHEAD OF IT WED NIGHT WHILE BROAD AND STRONG HIGH PRES COVERING
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WILL MOVE WEST. THIS SCENARIO WILL
INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN LEADING TO GALE
FORCE WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LIBERIA AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 05N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N32W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
00N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 20W AND 23W AND W OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SW N ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN
WATERS. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE NW GULF BY A 1028 MB HIGH
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E TO OVER NORTH CENTRAL WATERS BY WED
NIGHT. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE BROAD
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE NE BASIN N OF 28N E OF
87W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. EXCEPT FOR THE AREA OF FREQUENT
GUST TO GALE FORCE WINDS...FRESH TO STRONG NW WIND COVERS THE
BASIN E OF 90W AS WELL AS LOUISIANA ADJACENT WATERS N OF 25N.
LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIABLE FLOW DOMINATES ELSEWHERE AND IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND TO EASTERN WATERS LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
BROAD LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVES NE...THUS
REDUCING THE PRES GRADIENT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SW N ATLC WATERS AND ENTERS THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS EASTERN CUBA FROM 20N77W AND CONTINUES SW ALONG
16N82W...ACROSS HONDURAS COASTAL WATERS...ACROSS SOUTHERN BELIZE
TO NORTHERN GUATEMALA. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO EASTERN JAMAICA TO
NORTHERN PANAMA COASTAL WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE BETWEEN THESE
FRONTS AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS BETWEEN 76W AND 83W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS
ALSO BETWEEN THE FRONTS S OF 18N. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE
AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE-FORCE BY EARLY THU MORNING. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND
WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT WED NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT STABLE AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND.
CLOUDINESS IS MAINLY OVER THE NW ISLAND AS A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...POSSIBLY ENHANCING
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MERGE WITH THIS FRONT WED NIGHT. SHOWERS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE ISLAND WED THROUGH THU NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N67W TO
21N76W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 27N WITHIN 270 NM E OF FRONT
AND W OF FRONT TO 80W. SEAS IN THIS REGION RANGE FROM 9 TO 15
FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE BY WED
NIGHT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. TO THE E...A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 30N62W TO 20N73W THEN INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN BOTH BOUNDARIES. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF 65W
ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT WED NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO CENTRAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH LATE FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100334
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON FEB 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 19 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
LATE THU MORNING...THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE
CONDITIONS ON THU AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN INCREASING THE FLOW TO STRONG
GALE FORCE ON FRI THROUGH EARLY SUN. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE NE SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE S
MERGING WITH ENE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE
EVENT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM
04-10N BETWEEN 90-105W ON WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER
REACHING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 93-110W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED MORNING THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...THEN DEVELOP AGAIN WED
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE
CONDITIONS WILL BE SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR
FLOW EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 07N94W...RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING
TO ABOUT 15 FT NEAR 09N89W. PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF
12N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA...WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO ONLY 8 FT IN THE LIMITED FETCH. SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS NEAR 07N85W AND
CONTINUES SW TO 03N97W...THEN TURNS NW TO 06N110W...SW TO
01N125W...THEN W TO BEYOND 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 07N85W TO 05N104W TO 07N110W TO 07N126W.

...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM
24N120W TO 21N107W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N-NE
WINDS OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 107-
120W...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT WINDS LATER
TONIGHT INTO WED...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THE
WATERS S OF 20N W OF 112W ON WED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
OBSERVED BETWEEN 97-107W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED GALE
EVENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF 97W. FRESH NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 24N ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THROUGH WED MORNING...THEN MODERATE NW FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE GULF ON WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 04N W
OF 86W. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S
FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 9 FT NEAR
06N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM 00-32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 06-12N W OF 125W THROUGH
WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE WINDS WAVE
AND LONG PERIOD S AND N SWELL. NW LONG PERIOD SWELL...WITH
COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
TROPICS W OF 110W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
WED...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN THU AS ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW
SWELL PROPAGATES SE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT REACHING NEAR
32N136W TO 26N140W LATE THU. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY
STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 29-32N
W OF 138W BRIEFLY ON WED NIGHT.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100334
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON FEB 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 19 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
LATE THU MORNING...THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE
CONDITIONS ON THU AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN INCREASING THE FLOW TO STRONG
GALE FORCE ON FRI THROUGH EARLY SUN. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE NE SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE S
MERGING WITH ENE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE
EVENT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM
04-10N BETWEEN 90-105W ON WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER
REACHING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 93-110W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED MORNING THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...THEN DEVELOP AGAIN WED
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE
CONDITIONS WILL BE SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR
FLOW EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 07N94W...RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING
TO ABOUT 15 FT NEAR 09N89W. PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF
12N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA...WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO ONLY 8 FT IN THE LIMITED FETCH. SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS NEAR 07N85W AND
CONTINUES SW TO 03N97W...THEN TURNS NW TO 06N110W...SW TO
01N125W...THEN W TO BEYOND 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 07N85W TO 05N104W TO 07N110W TO 07N126W.

...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM
24N120W TO 21N107W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N-NE
WINDS OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 107-
120W...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT WINDS LATER
TONIGHT INTO WED...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THE
WATERS S OF 20N W OF 112W ON WED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
OBSERVED BETWEEN 97-107W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED GALE
EVENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF 97W. FRESH NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 24N ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THROUGH WED MORNING...THEN MODERATE NW FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE GULF ON WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 04N W
OF 86W. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S
FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 9 FT NEAR
06N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM 00-32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 06-12N W OF 125W THROUGH
WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE WINDS WAVE
AND LONG PERIOD S AND N SWELL. NW LONG PERIOD SWELL...WITH
COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
TROPICS W OF 110W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
WED...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN THU AS ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW
SWELL PROPAGATES SE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT REACHING NEAR
32N136W TO 26N140W LATE THU. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY
STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 29-32N
W OF 138W BRIEFLY ON WED NIGHT.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100334
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON FEB 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 19 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
LATE THU MORNING...THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE
CONDITIONS ON THU AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN INCREASING THE FLOW TO STRONG
GALE FORCE ON FRI THROUGH EARLY SUN. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE NE SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE S
MERGING WITH ENE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE
EVENT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM
04-10N BETWEEN 90-105W ON WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER
REACHING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 93-110W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED MORNING THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...THEN DEVELOP AGAIN WED
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE
CONDITIONS WILL BE SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR
FLOW EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 07N94W...RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING
TO ABOUT 15 FT NEAR 09N89W. PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF
12N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA...WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO ONLY 8 FT IN THE LIMITED FETCH. SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS NEAR 07N85W AND
CONTINUES SW TO 03N97W...THEN TURNS NW TO 06N110W...SW TO
01N125W...THEN W TO BEYOND 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 07N85W TO 05N104W TO 07N110W TO 07N126W.

...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM
24N120W TO 21N107W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N-NE
WINDS OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 107-
120W...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT WINDS LATER
TONIGHT INTO WED...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THE
WATERS S OF 20N W OF 112W ON WED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
OBSERVED BETWEEN 97-107W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED GALE
EVENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF 97W. FRESH NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 24N ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THROUGH WED MORNING...THEN MODERATE NW FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE GULF ON WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 04N W
OF 86W. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S
FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 9 FT NEAR
06N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM 00-32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 06-12N W OF 125W THROUGH
WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE WINDS WAVE
AND LONG PERIOD S AND N SWELL. NW LONG PERIOD SWELL...WITH
COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
TROPICS W OF 110W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
WED...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN THU AS ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW
SWELL PROPAGATES SE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT REACHING NEAR
32N136W TO 26N140W LATE THU. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY
STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 29-32N
W OF 138W BRIEFLY ON WED NIGHT.

$$
NELSON



000
AXNT20 KNHC 092355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 09 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 32N69W TO 23N80W. SCATTEROMETER DATA HAS BEEN
SHOWING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 27N. EXPECT FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...THE SAME COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC IS ALSO REACHING THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 22N85W TO 20N91W TO 21N97W. AS A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FREQUENT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS MAINLY N OF 28N
AND E OF 87W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY
PULSING BACK TO GALE FORCE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N11W TO 05N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 02N34W ENDING OVER THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
00N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE ITCZ
MAINLY W OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW GULF FROM 22N85W TO 20N91W TO
21N97W. ISOLATED LIGHT CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE
FRONT AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N99W.
BEHIND THE FRONT...LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA AND OBSERVATIONS
DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE ARE ACROSS THE NE GULF. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE NE GULF...PLEASE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING
SE AWAY FROM THE BASIN. WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WILL SUBSIDE A
TAD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN
FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. TO THE E...A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 20N73W TO 16N79W TO 09N81W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG BOTH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND A FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE
FRONT AFFECTING THE W CARIBBEAN WATERS W OF 80W. SHALLOW
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IS
GENERATING ISOLATED QUICK MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN E OF 80W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MERGING
WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND ALLOWING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA OVERNIGHT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MERGING WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N69W TO
23N80W. TO THE E...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N57W TO
20N74W. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG BOTH BOUNDARIES. A
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA SURROUNDING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE
FOR DETAILS. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES AND W
OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE
COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION AND GALE FORCE
WINDS/BUILDING SEAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 092355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 09 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 32N69W TO 23N80W. SCATTEROMETER DATA HAS BEEN
SHOWING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 27N. EXPECT FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...THE SAME COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC IS ALSO REACHING THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 22N85W TO 20N91W TO 21N97W. AS A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FREQUENT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS MAINLY N OF 28N
AND E OF 87W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY
PULSING BACK TO GALE FORCE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N11W TO 05N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 02N34W ENDING OVER THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
00N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE ITCZ
MAINLY W OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW GULF FROM 22N85W TO 20N91W TO
21N97W. ISOLATED LIGHT CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE
FRONT AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N99W.
BEHIND THE FRONT...LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA AND OBSERVATIONS
DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE ARE ACROSS THE NE GULF. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE NE GULF...PLEASE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING
SE AWAY FROM THE BASIN. WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WILL SUBSIDE A
TAD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN
FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. TO THE E...A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 20N73W TO 16N79W TO 09N81W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG BOTH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND A FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE
FRONT AFFECTING THE W CARIBBEAN WATERS W OF 80W. SHALLOW
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IS
GENERATING ISOLATED QUICK MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN E OF 80W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MERGING
WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND ALLOWING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA OVERNIGHT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MERGING WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N69W TO
23N80W. TO THE E...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N57W TO
20N74W. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG BOTH BOUNDARIES. A
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA SURROUNDING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE
FOR DETAILS. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES AND W
OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE
COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION AND GALE FORCE
WINDS/BUILDING SEAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092146
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON FEB 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 20 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THU
MORNING...THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ON
THU EVENING. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A
LITTLE INCREASING THE FLOW TO STRONG GALE FORCE ON FRI THROUGH
EARLY SUN. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
LARGE NE SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE S MERGING WITH ENE SWELL
GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 04-10N BETWEEN 90-
105W ON WED NIGHT WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 93-110W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/
WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF PAPAGAYO
THROUGH WED MORNING THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATE
WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING THEN DEVELOP AGAIN WED NIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE CONDITIONS
WILL BE SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR FLOW
EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 07N94W...RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING TO
ABOUT 15 FT NEAR 09N89W. PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 12N
BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...INCLUDING THE WATERS OF THE GULF OF
FONSECA WITH SEAS TO ABOUT 8 FT IN THE LIMITED FETCH. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS NEAR 06N89W
AND WIGGLES SW TO 04N103W...THEN NW TO 06N110W...SW TO 04N120W...
NW AGAIN TO 06N130W...THEN TURNS SW TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N90W TO 07N105W TO 03N114W TO
06N125W.

...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM
24N120W TO 21N107W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N-NE
WINDS OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 107-
120W...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
WED...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 20N W
OF 112W ON WED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 97-
107W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED GALE EVENT ACROSS THE WATERS
TO THE E OF 97W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE OF CONDITIONS IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. STRONG NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FRESH NW WINDS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS N OF 24N. MODERATE NW FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE GULF ON WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 04N W
OF 86W. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S
FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 9 FT NEAR
06N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM 00-32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 06-12N W OF 130W THROUGH
WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE WINDS WAVE
AND LONG PERIOD S AND N SWELL. NW LONG PERIOD SWELL...WITH
COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
TROPICS W OF 110W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
WED...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN THU AS ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW
SWELL PROPAGATES SE ACROSS THE ARE BEHIND A COLD FRONT REACHING
NEAR 32N136W TO 26N140W LATE THU. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY
STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 29-32N
W OF 138W BRIEFLY ON WED NIGHT.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092146
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON FEB 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 20 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THU
MORNING...THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ON
THU EVENING. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A
LITTLE INCREASING THE FLOW TO STRONG GALE FORCE ON FRI THROUGH
EARLY SUN. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
LARGE NE SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE S MERGING WITH ENE SWELL
GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 04-10N BETWEEN 90-
105W ON WED NIGHT WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 93-110W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/
WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF PAPAGAYO
THROUGH WED MORNING THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATE
WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING THEN DEVELOP AGAIN WED NIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE CONDITIONS
WILL BE SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR FLOW
EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 07N94W...RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING TO
ABOUT 15 FT NEAR 09N89W. PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 12N
BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...INCLUDING THE WATERS OF THE GULF OF
FONSECA WITH SEAS TO ABOUT 8 FT IN THE LIMITED FETCH. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS NEAR 06N89W
AND WIGGLES SW TO 04N103W...THEN NW TO 06N110W...SW TO 04N120W...
NW AGAIN TO 06N130W...THEN TURNS SW TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N90W TO 07N105W TO 03N114W TO
06N125W.

...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM
24N120W TO 21N107W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N-NE
WINDS OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 107-
120W...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
WED...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 20N W
OF 112W ON WED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 97-
107W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED GALE EVENT ACROSS THE WATERS
TO THE E OF 97W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE OF CONDITIONS IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. STRONG NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FRESH NW WINDS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS N OF 24N. MODERATE NW FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE GULF ON WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 04N W
OF 86W. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S
FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 9 FT NEAR
06N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM 00-32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 06-12N W OF 130W THROUGH
WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE WINDS WAVE
AND LONG PERIOD S AND N SWELL. NW LONG PERIOD SWELL...WITH
COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
TROPICS W OF 110W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
WED...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN THU AS ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW
SWELL PROPAGATES SE ACROSS THE ARE BEHIND A COLD FRONT REACHING
NEAR 32N136W TO 26N140W LATE THU. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY
STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 29-32N
W OF 138W BRIEFLY ON WED NIGHT.

$$
NELSON




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