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000
AXNT20 KNHC 281743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM 06N TO 15N WITH AXIS NEAR
56W/57W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI
TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT THAT SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 09N TO
16N BETWEEN 55W AND 61W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 05N23W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH 04N35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
02N TO 07N BETWEEN 10W AND 22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 24W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO TROUGHS SUPPORTS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N93W TO 18N94W. NO CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KT DOMINATE THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. AN EASTWARD MOVING
DISTURBANCE OVER TEXAS MAY BRING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN GULF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. FORCING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
18N TO 22N BETWEEN 76W AND 86W. A 1009 MB LOW OVER COLOMBIA
SUPPORTS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. INCREASING
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND 63W. TRADE
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN AREA OF 25
KT WINDS JUST OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
ISLAND TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N63W SUPPORTS A
COUPLE OF LOW LEVEL CENTERS WITH TROUGHING. THE WESTERNMOST LOW
OF 1015 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 26N67 WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 30N64W...THROUGH THE LOW...TO 24N67W. THE EASTERNMOST LOW
OF 1016 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 25N60W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING TO 25N63W. THIS SECOND LOW IS DEPICTED WELL IN THIS
MORNINGS SCATTEROMETER DATA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 23N TO 31N BETWEEN 54W AND 65W. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE
EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT A BROAD
AREA OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW
AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT AND BEGINS TO DRIFT
NORTH ON FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM 06N TO 15N WITH AXIS NEAR
56W/57W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI
TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT THAT SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 09N TO
16N BETWEEN 55W AND 61W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 05N23W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH 04N35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
02N TO 07N BETWEEN 10W AND 22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 24W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO TROUGHS SUPPORTS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N93W TO 18N94W. NO CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KT DOMINATE THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. AN EASTWARD MOVING
DISTURBANCE OVER TEXAS MAY BRING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN GULF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. FORCING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
18N TO 22N BETWEEN 76W AND 86W. A 1009 MB LOW OVER COLOMBIA
SUPPORTS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. INCREASING
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND 63W. TRADE
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN AREA OF 25
KT WINDS JUST OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
ISLAND TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N63W SUPPORTS A
COUPLE OF LOW LEVEL CENTERS WITH TROUGHING. THE WESTERNMOST LOW
OF 1015 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 26N67 WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 30N64W...THROUGH THE LOW...TO 24N67W. THE EASTERNMOST LOW
OF 1016 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 25N60W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING TO 25N63W. THIS SECOND LOW IS DEPICTED WELL IN THIS
MORNINGS SCATTEROMETER DATA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 23N TO 31N BETWEEN 54W AND 65W. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE
EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT A BROAD
AREA OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW
AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT AND BEGINS TO DRIFT
NORTH ON FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281729
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Andres, located about 690 miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

A small area of disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms
associated with a tropical wave is located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Some gradual development
of this system is possible early next week while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

&&
Public Advisories on Andres are issued under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1. Forecast/Advisories on Andres
are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281729
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Andres, located about 690 miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

A small area of disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms
associated with a tropical wave is located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Some gradual development
of this system is possible early next week while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

&&
Public Advisories on Andres are issued under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1. Forecast/Advisories on Andres
are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281533
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM ANDRES. ANDRES WAS CENTERED NEAR 11.6N 110.3W AT 1500 UTC
MAY 28 WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45
KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1002 MB. ANDRES IS MOVING
WNW OR 295 DEG AT 12 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED
WITHIN 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN AND 75 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLES OF ANDRES. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 45-60-
 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N118W TO 09N116W TO 08N113W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM N AND
180 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER.

ANDRES IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS...REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY SOMETIME ON FRI AND
MAINTAINING HURRICANE INTENSITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANDRES IS
FORECAST TO TRACK S OF A MID TO UPPER RIDGE FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS...THEN TURN MORE TO TOWARDS THE N-NW. REFER TO LATEST NHC
PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM FROM 05-14N ALONG 98W/99W AND HAS
BEEN PROGRESSING W AT 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM
OF WAVE AXIS AT 07N. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W TODAY
AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE
BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ANDRES.

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 08N123W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM W AND NW
QUADRANTS OF THE LOW PRES. MARGINAL PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOW PRES AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRES TO THE N IS SUPPORTING NE TRADES
OF 15-20 KT ROUGHLY FROM 11-18N BETWEEN 115-130W WITH COMBINED
SEAS OF 6-8 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT TO NEAR 09N124W FRI...AND THEN
DISSIPATE LATE FRI.

A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 11N133W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. A
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRES TO THE
N IS MAINTAINING NE-E 20-25 KT TRADES WITHIN 360 NM OF THE NW
SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE WSW TO NEAR 10N137W FRI AND NEAR 09N140W ON
ON SAT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.
A SURFACE LOW OVER NW COLOMBIA HAS AN ASSOCIATED TRAILING
TROUGH SW ACROSS NE COLOMBIA AND ACROSS THE EPAC THROUGH 07N77W
TO 07N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FLARING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OBSERVED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N150W WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 17N150W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONTS ARE ROTATING E INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH ALONG A POSITION FROM
32N136W TO 27N140W ON FRI...AND FROM 32N128W TO 25N140W ON SUN
BUT ONLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 5-10 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION WATERS.  A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDS N FROM THE
TROPICS ALONG 125W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
RIDGE AND SPILLING SE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. OTHERWISE...THE
UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL PORTION.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 14N103W
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO BEYOND 10N140W. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E TO A CREST EASTWARD TO 10N90W. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDRES AND PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR INTENSIFICATION...REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON ANDRES.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGES TO 20-25
KT AT TIMES OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE NEXT
36 HOURS BEFORE WINDS DROP BELOW 20 KT ALTOGETHER. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 8 FT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE PATTERN WILL REPEAT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENE WINDS OF 20-25 KT HAVE DIMINISHED AFTER
THE PEAK DIURNAL   . ANY PULSES FORECAST THROUGH FRI SHOULD ONLY
BE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE.

$$
COBB



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281533
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM ANDRES. ANDRES WAS CENTERED NEAR 11.6N 110.3W AT 1500 UTC
MAY 28 WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45
KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1002 MB. ANDRES IS MOVING
WNW OR 295 DEG AT 12 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED
WITHIN 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN AND 75 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLES OF ANDRES. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 45-60-
 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N118W TO 09N116W TO 08N113W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM N AND
180 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER.

ANDRES IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS...REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY SOMETIME ON FRI AND
MAINTAINING HURRICANE INTENSITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANDRES IS
FORECAST TO TRACK S OF A MID TO UPPER RIDGE FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS...THEN TURN MORE TO TOWARDS THE N-NW. REFER TO LATEST NHC
PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM FROM 05-14N ALONG 98W/99W AND HAS
BEEN PROGRESSING W AT 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM
OF WAVE AXIS AT 07N. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W TODAY
AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE
BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ANDRES.

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 08N123W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM W AND NW
QUADRANTS OF THE LOW PRES. MARGINAL PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOW PRES AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRES TO THE N IS SUPPORTING NE TRADES
OF 15-20 KT ROUGHLY FROM 11-18N BETWEEN 115-130W WITH COMBINED
SEAS OF 6-8 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT TO NEAR 09N124W FRI...AND THEN
DISSIPATE LATE FRI.

A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 11N133W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. A
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRES TO THE
N IS MAINTAINING NE-E 20-25 KT TRADES WITHIN 360 NM OF THE NW
SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE WSW TO NEAR 10N137W FRI AND NEAR 09N140W ON
ON SAT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.
A SURFACE LOW OVER NW COLOMBIA HAS AN ASSOCIATED TRAILING
TROUGH SW ACROSS NE COLOMBIA AND ACROSS THE EPAC THROUGH 07N77W
TO 07N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FLARING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OBSERVED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N150W WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 17N150W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONTS ARE ROTATING E INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH ALONG A POSITION FROM
32N136W TO 27N140W ON FRI...AND FROM 32N128W TO 25N140W ON SUN
BUT ONLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 5-10 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION WATERS.  A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDS N FROM THE
TROPICS ALONG 125W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
RIDGE AND SPILLING SE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. OTHERWISE...THE
UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL PORTION.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 14N103W
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO BEYOND 10N140W. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E TO A CREST EASTWARD TO 10N90W. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDRES AND PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR INTENSIFICATION...REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON ANDRES.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGES TO 20-25
KT AT TIMES OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE NEXT
36 HOURS BEFORE WINDS DROP BELOW 20 KT ALTOGETHER. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 8 FT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE PATTERN WILL REPEAT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENE WINDS OF 20-25 KT HAVE DIMINISHED AFTER
THE PEAK DIURNAL   . ANY PULSES FORECAST THROUGH FRI SHOULD ONLY
BE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE.

$$
COBB



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281533
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM ANDRES. ANDRES WAS CENTERED NEAR 11.6N 110.3W AT 1500 UTC
MAY 28 WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45
KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1002 MB. ANDRES IS MOVING
WNW OR 295 DEG AT 12 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED
WITHIN 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN AND 75 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLES OF ANDRES. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 45-60-
 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N118W TO 09N116W TO 08N113W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM N AND
180 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER.

ANDRES IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS...REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY SOMETIME ON FRI AND
MAINTAINING HURRICANE INTENSITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANDRES IS
FORECAST TO TRACK S OF A MID TO UPPER RIDGE FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS...THEN TURN MORE TO TOWARDS THE N-NW. REFER TO LATEST NHC
PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM FROM 05-14N ALONG 98W/99W AND HAS
BEEN PROGRESSING W AT 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM
OF WAVE AXIS AT 07N. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W TODAY
AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE
BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ANDRES.

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 08N123W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM W AND NW
QUADRANTS OF THE LOW PRES. MARGINAL PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOW PRES AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRES TO THE N IS SUPPORTING NE TRADES
OF 15-20 KT ROUGHLY FROM 11-18N BETWEEN 115-130W WITH COMBINED
SEAS OF 6-8 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT TO NEAR 09N124W FRI...AND THEN
DISSIPATE LATE FRI.

A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 11N133W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. A
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRES TO THE
N IS MAINTAINING NE-E 20-25 KT TRADES WITHIN 360 NM OF THE NW
SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE WSW TO NEAR 10N137W FRI AND NEAR 09N140W ON
ON SAT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.
A SURFACE LOW OVER NW COLOMBIA HAS AN ASSOCIATED TRAILING
TROUGH SW ACROSS NE COLOMBIA AND ACROSS THE EPAC THROUGH 07N77W
TO 07N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FLARING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OBSERVED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N150W WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 17N150W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONTS ARE ROTATING E INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH ALONG A POSITION FROM
32N136W TO 27N140W ON FRI...AND FROM 32N128W TO 25N140W ON SUN
BUT ONLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 5-10 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION WATERS.  A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDS N FROM THE
TROPICS ALONG 125W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
RIDGE AND SPILLING SE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. OTHERWISE...THE
UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL PORTION.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 14N103W
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO BEYOND 10N140W. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E TO A CREST EASTWARD TO 10N90W. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDRES AND PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR INTENSIFICATION...REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON ANDRES.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGES TO 20-25
KT AT TIMES OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE NEXT
36 HOURS BEFORE WINDS DROP BELOW 20 KT ALTOGETHER. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 8 FT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE PATTERN WILL REPEAT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENE WINDS OF 20-25 KT HAVE DIMINISHED AFTER
THE PEAK DIURNAL   . ANY PULSES FORECAST THROUGH FRI SHOULD ONLY
BE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE.

$$
COBB



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281533
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM ANDRES. ANDRES WAS CENTERED NEAR 11.6N 110.3W AT 1500 UTC
MAY 28 WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45
KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1002 MB. ANDRES IS MOVING
WNW OR 295 DEG AT 12 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED
WITHIN 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN AND 75 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLES OF ANDRES. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 45-60-
 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N118W TO 09N116W TO 08N113W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM N AND
180 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER.

ANDRES IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS...REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY SOMETIME ON FRI AND
MAINTAINING HURRICANE INTENSITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANDRES IS
FORECAST TO TRACK S OF A MID TO UPPER RIDGE FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS...THEN TURN MORE TO TOWARDS THE N-NW. REFER TO LATEST NHC
PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM FROM 05-14N ALONG 98W/99W AND HAS
BEEN PROGRESSING W AT 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM
OF WAVE AXIS AT 07N. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W TODAY
AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE
BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ANDRES.

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 08N123W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM W AND NW
QUADRANTS OF THE LOW PRES. MARGINAL PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOW PRES AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRES TO THE N IS SUPPORTING NE TRADES
OF 15-20 KT ROUGHLY FROM 11-18N BETWEEN 115-130W WITH COMBINED
SEAS OF 6-8 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT TO NEAR 09N124W FRI...AND THEN
DISSIPATE LATE FRI.

A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 11N133W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. A
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRES TO THE
N IS MAINTAINING NE-E 20-25 KT TRADES WITHIN 360 NM OF THE NW
SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE WSW TO NEAR 10N137W FRI AND NEAR 09N140W ON
ON SAT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.
A SURFACE LOW OVER NW COLOMBIA HAS AN ASSOCIATED TRAILING
TROUGH SW ACROSS NE COLOMBIA AND ACROSS THE EPAC THROUGH 07N77W
TO 07N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FLARING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OBSERVED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N150W WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 17N150W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONTS ARE ROTATING E INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH ALONG A POSITION FROM
32N136W TO 27N140W ON FRI...AND FROM 32N128W TO 25N140W ON SUN
BUT ONLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 5-10 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION WATERS.  A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDS N FROM THE
TROPICS ALONG 125W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
RIDGE AND SPILLING SE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. OTHERWISE...THE
UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL PORTION.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 14N103W
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO BEYOND 10N140W. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E TO A CREST EASTWARD TO 10N90W. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDRES AND PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR INTENSIFICATION...REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON ANDRES.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGES TO 20-25
KT AT TIMES OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE NEXT
36 HOURS BEFORE WINDS DROP BELOW 20 KT ALTOGETHER. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 8 FT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE PATTERN WILL REPEAT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENE WINDS OF 20-25 KT HAVE DIMINISHED AFTER
THE PEAK DIURNAL   . ANY PULSES FORECAST THROUGH FRI SHOULD ONLY
BE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE.

$$
COBB



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281533
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM ANDRES. ANDRES WAS CENTERED NEAR 11.6N 110.3W AT 1500 UTC
MAY 28 WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45
KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1002 MB. ANDRES IS MOVING
WNW OR 295 DEG AT 12 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED
WITHIN 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN AND 75 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLES OF ANDRES. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 45-60-
 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N118W TO 09N116W TO 08N113W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM N AND
180 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER.

ANDRES IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS...REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY SOMETIME ON FRI AND
MAINTAINING HURRICANE INTENSITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANDRES IS
FORECAST TO TRACK S OF A MID TO UPPER RIDGE FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS...THEN TURN MORE TO TOWARDS THE N-NW. REFER TO LATEST NHC
PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM FROM 05-14N ALONG 98W/99W AND HAS
BEEN PROGRESSING W AT 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM
OF WAVE AXIS AT 07N. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W TODAY
AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE
BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ANDRES.

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 08N123W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM W AND NW
QUADRANTS OF THE LOW PRES. MARGINAL PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOW PRES AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRES TO THE N IS SUPPORTING NE TRADES
OF 15-20 KT ROUGHLY FROM 11-18N BETWEEN 115-130W WITH COMBINED
SEAS OF 6-8 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT TO NEAR 09N124W FRI...AND THEN
DISSIPATE LATE FRI.

A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 11N133W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. A
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRES TO THE
N IS MAINTAINING NE-E 20-25 KT TRADES WITHIN 360 NM OF THE NW
SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE WSW TO NEAR 10N137W FRI AND NEAR 09N140W ON
ON SAT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.
A SURFACE LOW OVER NW COLOMBIA HAS AN ASSOCIATED TRAILING
TROUGH SW ACROSS NE COLOMBIA AND ACROSS THE EPAC THROUGH 07N77W
TO 07N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FLARING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OBSERVED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N150W WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 17N150W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONTS ARE ROTATING E INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH ALONG A POSITION FROM
32N136W TO 27N140W ON FRI...AND FROM 32N128W TO 25N140W ON SUN
BUT ONLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 5-10 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION WATERS.  A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDS N FROM THE
TROPICS ALONG 125W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
RIDGE AND SPILLING SE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. OTHERWISE...THE
UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL PORTION.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 14N103W
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO BEYOND 10N140W. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E TO A CREST EASTWARD TO 10N90W. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDRES AND PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR INTENSIFICATION...REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON ANDRES.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGES TO 20-25
KT AT TIMES OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE NEXT
36 HOURS BEFORE WINDS DROP BELOW 20 KT ALTOGETHER. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 8 FT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE PATTERN WILL REPEAT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENE WINDS OF 20-25 KT HAVE DIMINISHED AFTER
THE PEAK DIURNAL   . ANY PULSES FORECAST THROUGH FRI SHOULD ONLY
BE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE.

$$
COBB


000
WTPZ21 KNHC 281418
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
1500 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 111.3W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 111.3W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 110.9W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 12.3N 112.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.0N 113.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.8N 114.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.8N 114.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 16.7N 115.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 19.0N 118.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 111.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTPZ31 KNHC 281418
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
900 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...ANDRES BECOMES THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2015 EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 111.3W
ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was
located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 111.3 West. Andres is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected today.  A turn
toward the northwest with an additional decrease in speed is
expected on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next couple of days, and Andres is forecast to become a
hurricane late Friday or Friday night.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 281418
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
900 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...ANDRES BECOMES THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2015 EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 111.3W
ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was
located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 111.3 West. Andres is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected today.  A turn
toward the northwest with an additional decrease in speed is
expected on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next couple of days, and Andres is forecast to become a
hurricane late Friday or Friday night.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 281418
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
1500 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 111.3W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 111.3W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 110.9W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 12.3N 112.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.0N 113.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.8N 114.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.8N 114.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 16.7N 115.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 19.0N 118.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 111.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281127
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression One-E, located about 690 miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

A small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is
associated with a tropical wave.  Some gradual development of this
system is possible early next week while it moves slowly to the
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Roberts


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281127
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression One-E, located about 690 miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

A small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is
associated with a tropical wave.  Some gradual development of this
system is possible early next week while it moves slowly to the
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Roberts



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281127
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression One-E, located about 690 miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

A small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is
associated with a tropical wave.  Some gradual development of this
system is possible early next week while it moves slowly to the
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Roberts


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281127
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression One-E, located about 690 miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

A small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is
associated with a tropical wave.  Some gradual development of this
system is possible early next week while it moves slowly to the
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Roberts



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281026
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM 5N TO 14N WITH AXIS NEAR
54W/55W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI
TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 15N BETWEEN
50W AND 60W. FURTHER CONVECTION IS BEING HINDERED IN PART BY
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 03N36W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
00N50W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 02N TO 08N E OF 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS E-SE TO THE GULF OF
CAMPECHE WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N92W TO
16N94W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE REMAINDER GULF. OVER
THE N-NE BASIN...A FORMER SQUALL LINE WEAKENED LEAVING AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEING SUPPORTED BY A SHORT-WAVE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE N
OF 26N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE GULF
SUPPORTS SIMILAR CONVECTION S OF 26N E OF 86W. EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE GULF...EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE
WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT HAS DECREASED THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED TO THE BASIN...THUS FAVORING STABLE
CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN GENERATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...RESULTING IN NE TO E
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH
SEAS TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF MODERATE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN BASIN SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS OVER CUBA
SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 20 NM OFF THE COLOMBIA AND SOUTHERN
PANAMA COASTS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE STARTS TO REACH THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST TO ENTER THE
EASTERN BASIN BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING
SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER
HISPANIOLA COASTAL WATERS SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND...INTENSIFYING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 25N62W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 31N62W TO A
1015 MB LOW NEAR 25N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 25N BETWEEN 48W AND 61W. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS W OF THE ITCZ. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN FRIDAY
NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281026
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM 5N TO 14N WITH AXIS NEAR
54W/55W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI
TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 15N BETWEEN
50W AND 60W. FURTHER CONVECTION IS BEING HINDERED IN PART BY
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 03N36W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
00N50W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 02N TO 08N E OF 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS E-SE TO THE GULF OF
CAMPECHE WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N92W TO
16N94W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE REMAINDER GULF. OVER
THE N-NE BASIN...A FORMER SQUALL LINE WEAKENED LEAVING AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEING SUPPORTED BY A SHORT-WAVE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE N
OF 26N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE GULF
SUPPORTS SIMILAR CONVECTION S OF 26N E OF 86W. EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE GULF...EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE
WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT HAS DECREASED THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED TO THE BASIN...THUS FAVORING STABLE
CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN GENERATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...RESULTING IN NE TO E
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH
SEAS TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF MODERATE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN BASIN SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS OVER CUBA
SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 20 NM OFF THE COLOMBIA AND SOUTHERN
PANAMA COASTS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE STARTS TO REACH THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST TO ENTER THE
EASTERN BASIN BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING
SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER
HISPANIOLA COASTAL WATERS SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND...INTENSIFYING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 25N62W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 31N62W TO A
1015 MB LOW NEAR 25N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 25N BETWEEN 48W AND 61W. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS W OF THE ITCZ. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN FRIDAY
NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280945
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL SURFACE LOW HAS QUICKLY
BECOME ORGANIZED AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E HAS FORMED NEAR
11.0N 110.4W AT 0900 UTC MAY 28 WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 1005 MB. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 13 KT.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM OF
THE CENTER...AND ALONG A BAND W OF THE CENTER WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N112W TO 11N113W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 15N107W TO 10N115W...AND WITHIN 290 NM OF CENTER OVER
THE SE QUADRANT. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST STRENGTHEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM NEAR 11.7N 111.5W TODAY AT 29/1800 UTC...THEN
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 14.2N 114.0W FRI NIGHT
AT 30/0600 UTC. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO TRACK S OF A MID
TO UPPER RIDGE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN TURN MORE TO TOWARDS
THE N-NW. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM FROM 04-14N ALONG 98W AND HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING W AT 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM
OF WAVE AXIS AT 09N. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W TODAY
AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY IN BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IMMEDIATELY TO THE W.

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 08N123W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N124W TO 00N129W. THE GRADIENT
IS SUPPORTING NE TRADES OF 15-20 KT N OF THE LOW...ROUGHLY FROM
11-18N BETWEEN 115-130W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT PRIMARILY
DUE TO LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
W TO NEAR 09N124W TONIGHT...AND THEN DISSIPATE ON FRI.

A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 11N133W. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. THE
GRADIENT IS MAINTAINING NE-E 20-25 KT TRADES WITHIN 360 NM OF
THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT. THE LOW
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WSW TO NEAR 10N136W TONIGHT AND NEAR
09N139W ON ON FRI NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 20 KT WITHIN ABOUT 540 NM N SEMICIRCLE WITH THE LOW
PASSING W OF 140W ON SAT NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.
A SURFACE LOW OVER NW COLOMBIA TRAILS A TROUGH SW ACROSS NE
COLOMBIA AND ACROSS THE EPAC FROM ABOUT 07N77W TO 06N91W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING WITHIN
120 NM OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OBSERVED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N150W WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 17N150W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONTS ARE ROTATING E INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH ALONG A POSITION FROM
32N136W TO 27N140W ON FRI...AND FROM 32N128W TO 25N140W ON SUN
BUT ONLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 5-10 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION WATERS. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER ARIZONA
AND TRAILS AN UPPER TROUGH S ACROSS THE GULF LOW PRES...POSSIBLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 14N114W 999 MB.OF CALIFORNIA. A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDS N FROM THE TROPICS ALONG 125W. UPPER
DEBRIS MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE RIDGE AND SPILLING SE OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY
DRY ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL PORTION.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 14N103W
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W TO BEYOND 13N140W. AN UPPER
RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E TO A CREST NEAR 12N91W. THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...THE TROPICAL LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVE AS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED S
ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 100-136W...SOME OF THE DEBRIS
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED E ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO WHERE INTERIOR
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER COLOMBIA RIDGES W TO A CREST NEAR
08N86W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO A BASE OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 11N90W. THIS
PATTERN SETS UP AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION AND THE DEEP TROPICS BETWEEN 80-90W AS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED ENE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE TO 20-25
KT LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING BRIEFLY TO 7 FT AT SUNRISE
TODAY. THE PATTERN WILL REPEAT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...CURRENTLY ENE 20-25 KT WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THEN EXPECT ONLY 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL
PULSES FORECAST THROUGH FRI.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280945
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL SURFACE LOW HAS QUICKLY
BECOME ORGANIZED AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E HAS FORMED NEAR
11.0N 110.4W AT 0900 UTC MAY 28 WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 1005 MB. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 13 KT.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM OF
THE CENTER...AND ALONG A BAND W OF THE CENTER WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N112W TO 11N113W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 15N107W TO 10N115W...AND WITHIN 290 NM OF CENTER OVER
THE SE QUADRANT. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST STRENGTHEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM NEAR 11.7N 111.5W TODAY AT 29/1800 UTC...THEN
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 14.2N 114.0W FRI NIGHT
AT 30/0600 UTC. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO TRACK S OF A MID
TO UPPER RIDGE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN TURN MORE TO TOWARDS
THE N-NW. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM FROM 04-14N ALONG 98W AND HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING W AT 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM
OF WAVE AXIS AT 09N. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W TODAY
AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY IN BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IMMEDIATELY TO THE W.

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 08N123W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N124W TO 00N129W. THE GRADIENT
IS SUPPORTING NE TRADES OF 15-20 KT N OF THE LOW...ROUGHLY FROM
11-18N BETWEEN 115-130W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT PRIMARILY
DUE TO LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
W TO NEAR 09N124W TONIGHT...AND THEN DISSIPATE ON FRI.

A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 11N133W. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. THE
GRADIENT IS MAINTAINING NE-E 20-25 KT TRADES WITHIN 360 NM OF
THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT. THE LOW
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WSW TO NEAR 10N136W TONIGHT AND NEAR
09N139W ON ON FRI NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 20 KT WITHIN ABOUT 540 NM N SEMICIRCLE WITH THE LOW
PASSING W OF 140W ON SAT NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.
A SURFACE LOW OVER NW COLOMBIA TRAILS A TROUGH SW ACROSS NE
COLOMBIA AND ACROSS THE EPAC FROM ABOUT 07N77W TO 06N91W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING WITHIN
120 NM OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OBSERVED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N150W WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 17N150W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONTS ARE ROTATING E INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH ALONG A POSITION FROM
32N136W TO 27N140W ON FRI...AND FROM 32N128W TO 25N140W ON SUN
BUT ONLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 5-10 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION WATERS. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER ARIZONA
AND TRAILS AN UPPER TROUGH S ACROSS THE GULF LOW PRES...POSSIBLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 14N114W 999 MB.OF CALIFORNIA. A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDS N FROM THE TROPICS ALONG 125W. UPPER
DEBRIS MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE RIDGE AND SPILLING SE OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY
DRY ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL PORTION.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 14N103W
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W TO BEYOND 13N140W. AN UPPER
RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E TO A CREST NEAR 12N91W. THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...THE TROPICAL LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVE AS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED S
ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 100-136W...SOME OF THE DEBRIS
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED E ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO WHERE INTERIOR
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER COLOMBIA RIDGES W TO A CREST NEAR
08N86W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO A BASE OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 11N90W. THIS
PATTERN SETS UP AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION AND THE DEEP TROPICS BETWEEN 80-90W AS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED ENE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE TO 20-25
KT LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING BRIEFLY TO 7 FT AT SUNRISE
TODAY. THE PATTERN WILL REPEAT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...CURRENTLY ENE 20-25 KT WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THEN EXPECT ONLY 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL
PULSES FORECAST THROUGH FRI.

$$
NELSON



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 280840
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
300 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON
FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 110.4W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E
was located near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 110.4 West.  The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24
km/h), but a decrease in forward speed is expected to begin later
today.  The depression should turn toward the northwest by tonight
and the north-northwest by Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.  The depression
is expected to become a tropical storm later this morning and could
become a hurricane by late Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg




000
WTPZ31 KNHC 280840
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
300 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON
FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 110.4W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E
was located near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 110.4 West.  The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24
km/h), but a decrease in forward speed is expected to begin later
today.  The depression should turn toward the northwest by tonight
and the north-northwest by Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.  The depression
is expected to become a tropical storm later this morning and could
become a hurricane by late Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg




000
WTPZ31 KNHC 280840
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
300 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON
FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 110.4W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E
was located near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 110.4 West.  The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24
km/h), but a decrease in forward speed is expected to begin later
today.  The depression should turn toward the northwest by tonight
and the north-northwest by Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.  The depression
is expected to become a tropical storm later this morning and could
become a hurricane by late Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg




000
WTPZ31 KNHC 280840
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
300 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON
FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 110.4W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E
was located near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 110.4 West.  The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24
km/h), but a decrease in forward speed is expected to begin later
today.  The depression should turn toward the northwest by tonight
and the north-northwest by Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.  The depression
is expected to become a tropical storm later this morning and could
become a hurricane by late Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg




000
WTPZ21 KNHC 280839
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
0900 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 110.4W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 110.4W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 109.9W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 11.7N 111.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 12.6N 112.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 13.4N 113.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.2N 114.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 16.0N 115.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 17.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 19.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 110.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
AXNT20 KNHC 280605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM 1N TO 14N WITH AXIS NEAR
54W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT E OF THE
WAVE AXIS THAT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 03N TO
07N BETWEEN THE AXIS AND 50W. FURTHER CONVECTION IS BEING
HINDERED MAINLY BY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION
OF THE TROPICAL ATLC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N13W TO 05N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N21W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04N37W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 03N TO
08N E OF 18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE
THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS E-SE TO THE GULF OF
CAMPECHE WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N89W TO
16N93W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE REMAINDER GULF. OVER
THE N-NE BASIN...A FORMER SQUALL LINE WEAKENED LEAVING AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA TO 30N88W
TO 27N88W. A SHORT-WAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GENERATES A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE GULF SUPPORTS SIMILAR CONVECTION
FROM 24N TO 26N E OF 84W. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF
10 TO 15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
GULF...EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO
20 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. STRONG DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT HAS DECREASED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED TO THE BASIN...THUS FAVORING STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN GENERATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...RESULTING IN NE TO E
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W WITH
SEAS TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF MODERATE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN BASIN SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS OVER CUBA
SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING
SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE EASTERN BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER
HISPANIOLA COASTAL WATERS SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 25N62W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N62W TO
25N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N
OF 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ.
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 280605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM 1N TO 14N WITH AXIS NEAR
54W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT E OF THE
WAVE AXIS THAT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 03N TO
07N BETWEEN THE AXIS AND 50W. FURTHER CONVECTION IS BEING
HINDERED MAINLY BY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION
OF THE TROPICAL ATLC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N13W TO 05N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N21W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04N37W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 03N TO
08N E OF 18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE
THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS E-SE TO THE GULF OF
CAMPECHE WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N89W TO
16N93W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE REMAINDER GULF. OVER
THE N-NE BASIN...A FORMER SQUALL LINE WEAKENED LEAVING AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA TO 30N88W
TO 27N88W. A SHORT-WAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GENERATES A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE GULF SUPPORTS SIMILAR CONVECTION
FROM 24N TO 26N E OF 84W. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF
10 TO 15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
GULF...EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO
20 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. STRONG DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT HAS DECREASED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED TO THE BASIN...THUS FAVORING STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN GENERATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...RESULTING IN NE TO E
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W WITH
SEAS TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF MODERATE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN BASIN SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS OVER CUBA
SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING
SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE EASTERN BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER
HISPANIOLA COASTAL WATERS SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 25N62W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N62W TO
25N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N
OF 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ.
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM 1N TO 14N WITH AXIS NEAR
54W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT E OF THE
WAVE AXIS THAT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 03N TO
07N BETWEEN THE AXIS AND 50W. FURTHER CONVECTION IS BEING
HINDERED MAINLY BY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION
OF THE TROPICAL ATLC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N13W TO 05N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N21W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04N37W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 03N TO
08N E OF 18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE
THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS E-SE TO THE GULF OF
CAMPECHE WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N89W TO
16N93W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE REMAINDER GULF. OVER
THE N-NE BASIN...A FORMER SQUALL LINE WEAKENED LEAVING AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA TO 30N88W
TO 27N88W. A SHORT-WAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GENERATES A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE GULF SUPPORTS SIMILAR CONVECTION
FROM 24N TO 26N E OF 84W. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF
10 TO 15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
GULF...EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO
20 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. STRONG DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT HAS DECREASED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED TO THE BASIN...THUS FAVORING STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN GENERATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...RESULTING IN NE TO E
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W WITH
SEAS TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF MODERATE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN BASIN SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS OVER CUBA
SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING
SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE EASTERN BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER
HISPANIOLA COASTAL WATERS SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 25N62W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N62W TO
25N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N
OF 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ.
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM 1N TO 14N WITH AXIS NEAR
54W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT E OF THE
WAVE AXIS THAT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 03N TO
07N BETWEEN THE AXIS AND 50W. FURTHER CONVECTION IS BEING
HINDERED MAINLY BY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION
OF THE TROPICAL ATLC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N13W TO 05N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N21W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04N37W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 03N TO
08N E OF 18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE
THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS E-SE TO THE GULF OF
CAMPECHE WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N89W TO
16N93W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE REMAINDER GULF. OVER
THE N-NE BASIN...A FORMER SQUALL LINE WEAKENED LEAVING AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA TO 30N88W
TO 27N88W. A SHORT-WAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GENERATES A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE GULF SUPPORTS SIMILAR CONVECTION
FROM 24N TO 26N E OF 84W. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF
10 TO 15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
GULF...EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO
20 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. STRONG DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT HAS DECREASED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED TO THE BASIN...THUS FAVORING STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN GENERATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...RESULTING IN NE TO E
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W WITH
SEAS TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF MODERATE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN BASIN SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS OVER CUBA
SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING
SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE EASTERN BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER
HISPANIOLA COASTAL WATERS SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 25N62W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N62W TO
25N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N
OF 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ.
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM 1N TO 14N WITH AXIS NEAR
54W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT E OF THE
WAVE AXIS THAT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 03N TO
07N BETWEEN THE AXIS AND 50W. FURTHER CONVECTION IS BEING
HINDERED MAINLY BY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION
OF THE TROPICAL ATLC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N13W TO 05N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N21W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04N37W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 03N TO
08N E OF 18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE
THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS E-SE TO THE GULF OF
CAMPECHE WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N89W TO
16N93W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE REMAINDER GULF. OVER
THE N-NE BASIN...A FORMER SQUALL LINE WEAKENED LEAVING AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA TO 30N88W
TO 27N88W. A SHORT-WAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GENERATES A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE GULF SUPPORTS SIMILAR CONVECTION
FROM 24N TO 26N E OF 84W. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF
10 TO 15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
GULF...EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO
20 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. STRONG DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT HAS DECREASED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED TO THE BASIN...THUS FAVORING STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN GENERATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...RESULTING IN NE TO E
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W WITH
SEAS TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF MODERATE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN BASIN SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS OVER CUBA
SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING
SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE EASTERN BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER
HISPANIOLA COASTAL WATERS SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 25N62W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N62W TO
25N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N
OF 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ.
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM 1N TO 14N WITH AXIS NEAR
54W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT E OF THE
WAVE AXIS THAT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 03N TO
07N BETWEEN THE AXIS AND 50W. FURTHER CONVECTION IS BEING
HINDERED MAINLY BY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION
OF THE TROPICAL ATLC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N13W TO 05N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N21W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04N37W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 03N TO
08N E OF 18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE
THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS E-SE TO THE GULF OF
CAMPECHE WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N89W TO
16N93W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE REMAINDER GULF. OVER
THE N-NE BASIN...A FORMER SQUALL LINE WEAKENED LEAVING AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA TO 30N88W
TO 27N88W. A SHORT-WAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GENERATES A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE GULF SUPPORTS SIMILAR CONVECTION
FROM 24N TO 26N E OF 84W. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF
10 TO 15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
GULF...EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO
20 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. STRONG DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT HAS DECREASED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED TO THE BASIN...THUS FAVORING STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN GENERATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...RESULTING IN NE TO E
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W WITH
SEAS TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF MODERATE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN BASIN SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS OVER CUBA
SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING
SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE EASTERN BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER
HISPANIOLA COASTAL WATERS SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 25N62W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N62W TO
25N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N
OF 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ.
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 280533
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system located about 675 miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, has continued to become better organized during
the past several hours, and satellite images indicate that a
tropical depression could be forming.  Advisories could be initiated
on this system as early as Thursday morning if this trend continues.
The low is expected to move west-northwestward at about 10 mph well
offshore the coast of Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

An area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles south-
southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a tropical
wave.  Environmental conditions could become more favorable for some
development of this system by the weekend while it moves slowly to
the west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 280533
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system located about 675 miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, has continued to become better organized during
the past several hours, and satellite images indicate that a
tropical depression could be forming.  Advisories could be initiated
on this system as early as Thursday morning if this trend continues.
The low is expected to move west-northwestward at about 10 mph well
offshore the coast of Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

An area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles south-
southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a tropical
wave.  Environmental conditions could become more favorable for some
development of this system by the weekend while it moves slowly to
the west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Berg


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280230
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1006 MB LOW PRES LOCATED
NEAR 10N108W CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. DEEP
CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER AND LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN
AROUND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER. A CLUSTER OF STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED FAR TO THE NW OF THE LOW CENTER FROM
11N-13N BETWEEN 108W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 104W-111W.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
THIS EVENING OR ON THU. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
GIVES THIS LOW PRES AREA A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES W-NW AT
AROUND 10-15 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N-14N ALONG 97W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS DIMINISHED DURING
THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND NOW A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 08N97W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR
THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS. ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BY THE
WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE W-NW.

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 08N121W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN
ABOUT 150 NM W QUADRANT OF LOW CENTER. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 120W-124W
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND
WEAKEN THROUGH FRI.

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 11N132W. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM FORECAST TO DRIFT W-SW OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LIKELY CROSSING 140W FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE RIDGE TO THE N SUPPORTS AN
AREA OF NE 20-25 KT TRADES MAINLY FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 130W-135W
WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-9 FT. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS
PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF THESE WINDS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ IN
THE EASTERN PAC DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THREE LOW PRES SYSTEMS
AND A TROPICAL WAVE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF EACH OTHER. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 03N TO
06N BETWEEN 108W AND 125W...AND FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 120W AND
126W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR
30N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH WATERS TO NEAR 21N112W.
A FRONTAL THROUGH STRETCHES FROM 30N137W TO 27N138W TO BEYOND
25N140W. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU
NIGHT...WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR
28N132W.

GAP WINDS...MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE
WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO WITH SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING TO 8 FT.

FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH
FRI MORNING.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280230
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1006 MB LOW PRES LOCATED
NEAR 10N108W CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. DEEP
CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER AND LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN
AROUND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER. A CLUSTER OF STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED FAR TO THE NW OF THE LOW CENTER FROM
11N-13N BETWEEN 108W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 104W-111W.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
THIS EVENING OR ON THU. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
GIVES THIS LOW PRES AREA A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES W-NW AT
AROUND 10-15 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N-14N ALONG 97W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS DIMINISHED DURING
THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND NOW A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 08N97W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR
THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS. ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BY THE
WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE W-NW.

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 08N121W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN
ABOUT 150 NM W QUADRANT OF LOW CENTER. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 120W-124W
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND
WEAKEN THROUGH FRI.

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 11N132W. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM FORECAST TO DRIFT W-SW OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LIKELY CROSSING 140W FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE RIDGE TO THE N SUPPORTS AN
AREA OF NE 20-25 KT TRADES MAINLY FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 130W-135W
WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-9 FT. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS
PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF THESE WINDS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ IN
THE EASTERN PAC DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THREE LOW PRES SYSTEMS
AND A TROPICAL WAVE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF EACH OTHER. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 03N TO
06N BETWEEN 108W AND 125W...AND FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 120W AND
126W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR
30N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH WATERS TO NEAR 21N112W.
A FRONTAL THROUGH STRETCHES FROM 30N137W TO 27N138W TO BEYOND
25N140W. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU
NIGHT...WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR
28N132W.

GAP WINDS...MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE
WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO WITH SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING TO 8 FT.

FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH
FRI MORNING.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280230
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1006 MB LOW PRES LOCATED
NEAR 10N108W CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. DEEP
CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER AND LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN
AROUND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER. A CLUSTER OF STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED FAR TO THE NW OF THE LOW CENTER FROM
11N-13N BETWEEN 108W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 104W-111W.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
THIS EVENING OR ON THU. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
GIVES THIS LOW PRES AREA A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES W-NW AT
AROUND 10-15 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N-14N ALONG 97W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS DIMINISHED DURING
THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND NOW A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 08N97W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR
THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS. ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BY THE
WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE W-NW.

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 08N121W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN
ABOUT 150 NM W QUADRANT OF LOW CENTER. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 120W-124W
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND
WEAKEN THROUGH FRI.

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 11N132W. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM FORECAST TO DRIFT W-SW OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LIKELY CROSSING 140W FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE RIDGE TO THE N SUPPORTS AN
AREA OF NE 20-25 KT TRADES MAINLY FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 130W-135W
WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-9 FT. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS
PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF THESE WINDS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ IN
THE EASTERN PAC DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THREE LOW PRES SYSTEMS
AND A TROPICAL WAVE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF EACH OTHER. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 03N TO
06N BETWEEN 108W AND 125W...AND FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 120W AND
126W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR
30N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH WATERS TO NEAR 21N112W.
A FRONTAL THROUGH STRETCHES FROM 30N137W TO 27N138W TO BEYOND
25N140W. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU
NIGHT...WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR
28N132W.

GAP WINDS...MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE
WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO WITH SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING TO 8 FT.

FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH
FRI MORNING.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280230
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1006 MB LOW PRES LOCATED
NEAR 10N108W CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. DEEP
CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER AND LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN
AROUND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER. A CLUSTER OF STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED FAR TO THE NW OF THE LOW CENTER FROM
11N-13N BETWEEN 108W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 104W-111W.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
THIS EVENING OR ON THU. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
GIVES THIS LOW PRES AREA A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES W-NW AT
AROUND 10-15 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N-14N ALONG 97W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS DIMINISHED DURING
THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND NOW A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 08N97W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR
THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS. ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BY THE
WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE W-NW.

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 08N121W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN
ABOUT 150 NM W QUADRANT OF LOW CENTER. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 120W-124W
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND
WEAKEN THROUGH FRI.

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 11N132W. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM FORECAST TO DRIFT W-SW OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LIKELY CROSSING 140W FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE RIDGE TO THE N SUPPORTS AN
AREA OF NE 20-25 KT TRADES MAINLY FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 130W-135W
WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-9 FT. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS
PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF THESE WINDS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ IN
THE EASTERN PAC DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THREE LOW PRES SYSTEMS
AND A TROPICAL WAVE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF EACH OTHER. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 03N TO
06N BETWEEN 108W AND 125W...AND FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 120W AND
126W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR
30N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH WATERS TO NEAR 21N112W.
A FRONTAL THROUGH STRETCHES FROM 30N137W TO 27N138W TO BEYOND
25N140W. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU
NIGHT...WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR
28N132W.

GAP WINDS...MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE
WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO WITH SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING TO 8 FT.

FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH
FRI MORNING.

$$
GR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 272355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N51W TO 1N53W...MOVING AT 13 KT.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 46W-57W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM
1N-6N BETWEEN 51W-56W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 7N12W AND
CONTINUES TO 5N18W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N18W TO 4N40W TO THE
SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 1N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 7W-12W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 17W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SQUALL LINE IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM
30N89W TO 27N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SQUALL LINE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 29N BETWEEN 83W-87W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE NORTH YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM 20N-21N BETWEEN 88W-90W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER A LARGE AREA OF MEXICO FROM 16N-30N
BETWEEN 97W-103W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA S OF 26N AND E
OF 84W MOVING W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WITH NW FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF W OF
90W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
85W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR 10-15 KT SURFACE E
TO SE RETURN FLOW WITH CONVECTION MOSTLY INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NE GULF STATES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W. 10-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA ...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF JAMAICA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS HOWEVER SUPPRESSING THE
FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FLORIDA SE COAST
FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 79W-80W MOVING W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC FROM 28N66W TO 25N61W. ANOTHER TROUGH IS FROM
26N58W TO 22N59W. A LARGE 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 43N36W. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N
OF 15N BETWEEN 10W-50W. A 1011 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER MOROCCO
NEAR 33N7W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NE OF THE CENTER FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 49W-
60W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS
AT 31N15W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF THE CENTER. A TROPICAL
JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM TRINIDAD AT 10N60W TO 18N40W TO NW
MAURITANIA AT 21N16W PRODUCING BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W.
ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOWS TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 272355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N51W TO 1N53W...MOVING AT 13 KT.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 46W-57W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM
1N-6N BETWEEN 51W-56W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 7N12W AND
CONTINUES TO 5N18W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N18W TO 4N40W TO THE
SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 1N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 7W-12W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 17W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SQUALL LINE IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM
30N89W TO 27N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SQUALL LINE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 29N BETWEEN 83W-87W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE NORTH YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM 20N-21N BETWEEN 88W-90W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER A LARGE AREA OF MEXICO FROM 16N-30N
BETWEEN 97W-103W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA S OF 26N AND E
OF 84W MOVING W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WITH NW FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF W OF
90W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
85W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR 10-15 KT SURFACE E
TO SE RETURN FLOW WITH CONVECTION MOSTLY INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NE GULF STATES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W. 10-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA ...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF JAMAICA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS HOWEVER SUPPRESSING THE
FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FLORIDA SE COAST
FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 79W-80W MOVING W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC FROM 28N66W TO 25N61W. ANOTHER TROUGH IS FROM
26N58W TO 22N59W. A LARGE 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 43N36W. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N
OF 15N BETWEEN 10W-50W. A 1011 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER MOROCCO
NEAR 33N7W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NE OF THE CENTER FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 49W-
60W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS
AT 31N15W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF THE CENTER. A TROPICAL
JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM TRINIDAD AT 10N60W TO 18N40W TO NW
MAURITANIA AT 21N16W PRODUCING BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W.
ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOWS TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 272355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N51W TO 1N53W...MOVING AT 13 KT.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 46W-57W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM
1N-6N BETWEEN 51W-56W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 7N12W AND
CONTINUES TO 5N18W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N18W TO 4N40W TO THE
SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 1N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 7W-12W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 17W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SQUALL LINE IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM
30N89W TO 27N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SQUALL LINE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 29N BETWEEN 83W-87W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE NORTH YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM 20N-21N BETWEEN 88W-90W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER A LARGE AREA OF MEXICO FROM 16N-30N
BETWEEN 97W-103W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA S OF 26N AND E
OF 84W MOVING W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WITH NW FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF W OF
90W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
85W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR 10-15 KT SURFACE E
TO SE RETURN FLOW WITH CONVECTION MOSTLY INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NE GULF STATES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W. 10-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA ...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF JAMAICA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS HOWEVER SUPPRESSING THE
FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FLORIDA SE COAST
FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 79W-80W MOVING W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC FROM 28N66W TO 25N61W. ANOTHER TROUGH IS FROM
26N58W TO 22N59W. A LARGE 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 43N36W. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N
OF 15N BETWEEN 10W-50W. A 1011 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER MOROCCO
NEAR 33N7W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NE OF THE CENTER FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 49W-
60W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS
AT 31N15W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF THE CENTER. A TROPICAL
JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM TRINIDAD AT 10N60W TO 18N40W TO NW
MAURITANIA AT 21N16W PRODUCING BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W.
ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOWS TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 272355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N51W TO 1N53W...MOVING AT 13 KT.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 46W-57W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM
1N-6N BETWEEN 51W-56W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 7N12W AND
CONTINUES TO 5N18W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N18W TO 4N40W TO THE
SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 1N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 7W-12W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 17W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SQUALL LINE IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM
30N89W TO 27N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SQUALL LINE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 29N BETWEEN 83W-87W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE NORTH YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM 20N-21N BETWEEN 88W-90W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER A LARGE AREA OF MEXICO FROM 16N-30N
BETWEEN 97W-103W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA S OF 26N AND E
OF 84W MOVING W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WITH NW FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF W OF
90W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
85W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR 10-15 KT SURFACE E
TO SE RETURN FLOW WITH CONVECTION MOSTLY INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NE GULF STATES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W. 10-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA ...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF JAMAICA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS HOWEVER SUPPRESSING THE
FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FLORIDA SE COAST
FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 79W-80W MOVING W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC FROM 28N66W TO 25N61W. ANOTHER TROUGH IS FROM
26N58W TO 22N59W. A LARGE 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 43N36W. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N
OF 15N BETWEEN 10W-50W. A 1011 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER MOROCCO
NEAR 33N7W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NE OF THE CENTER FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 49W-
60W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS
AT 31N15W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF THE CENTER. A TROPICAL
JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM TRINIDAD AT 10N60W TO 18N40W TO NW
MAURITANIA AT 21N16W PRODUCING BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W.
ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOWS TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 272332
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 700 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continue to show signs of organization.  This system is expected to
become a tropical depression later this evening or on Thursday while
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

An area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a tropical wave.
Environment conditions could become more favorable for some
development of this system by the weekend while it moves slowly to
the west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 272332
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 700 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continue to show signs of organization.  This system is expected to
become a tropical depression later this evening or on Thursday while
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

An area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a tropical wave.
Environment conditions could become more favorable for some
development of this system by the weekend while it moves slowly to
the west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272200
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 09.5N107.5W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CONTINUE
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE AN
AREA OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 106W AND
112W. THE EDGE OF AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS CAPTURED THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04-12N ALONG 96W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 95W
AND 96W...AND NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N TO
14N BETWEEN 95W AND 98W.

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 09N120W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FAR TO THE NW OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 122W AND 125W. NE TRADES ARE
ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THE
LOW WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT W AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI.

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 12N132W WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT OF
LOW CENTER. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE
N SUPPORTS AN AREA OF NE 20-25 KT TRADES WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM N
QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-9 FT. THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W-SW THROUGH FRI AND WEAKEN.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ IN
THE EASTERN PAC DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THREE LOW PRES SYSTEMS
AND A TROPICAL WAVE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF EACH OTHER. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE DEEP
TROPICS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 108W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR
30N128W DOMINATES MOST OF THE NORTHERN WATERS N OF 18N W OF
110W. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE NW WATERS AND
EXTENDS FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER
AND TRANSITION INTO A QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH THROUGH THU
NIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 27N132W.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUED MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE WINDS
PULSING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS
OF 6-7 FT.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272200
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 09.5N107.5W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CONTINUE
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE AN
AREA OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 106W AND
112W. THE EDGE OF AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS CAPTURED THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04-12N ALONG 96W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 95W
AND 96W...AND NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N TO
14N BETWEEN 95W AND 98W.

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 09N120W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FAR TO THE NW OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 122W AND 125W. NE TRADES ARE
ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THE
LOW WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT W AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI.

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 12N132W WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT OF
LOW CENTER. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE
N SUPPORTS AN AREA OF NE 20-25 KT TRADES WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM N
QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-9 FT. THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W-SW THROUGH FRI AND WEAKEN.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ IN
THE EASTERN PAC DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THREE LOW PRES SYSTEMS
AND A TROPICAL WAVE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF EACH OTHER. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE DEEP
TROPICS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 108W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR
30N128W DOMINATES MOST OF THE NORTHERN WATERS N OF 18N W OF
110W. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE NW WATERS AND
EXTENDS FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER
AND TRANSITION INTO A QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH THROUGH THU
NIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 27N132W.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUED MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE WINDS
PULSING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS
OF 6-7 FT.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272200
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 09.5N107.5W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CONTINUE
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE AN
AREA OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 106W AND
112W. THE EDGE OF AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS CAPTURED THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04-12N ALONG 96W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 95W
AND 96W...AND NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N TO
14N BETWEEN 95W AND 98W.

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 09N120W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FAR TO THE NW OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 122W AND 125W. NE TRADES ARE
ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THE
LOW WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT W AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI.

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 12N132W WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT OF
LOW CENTER. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE
N SUPPORTS AN AREA OF NE 20-25 KT TRADES WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM N
QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-9 FT. THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W-SW THROUGH FRI AND WEAKEN.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ IN
THE EASTERN PAC DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THREE LOW PRES SYSTEMS
AND A TROPICAL WAVE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF EACH OTHER. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE DEEP
TROPICS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 108W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR
30N128W DOMINATES MOST OF THE NORTHERN WATERS N OF 18N W OF
110W. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE NW WATERS AND
EXTENDS FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER
AND TRANSITION INTO A QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH THROUGH THU
NIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 27N132W.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUED MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE WINDS
PULSING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS
OF 6-7 FT.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272200
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 09.5N107.5W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CONTINUE
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE AN
AREA OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 106W AND
112W. THE EDGE OF AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS CAPTURED THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04-12N ALONG 96W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 95W
AND 96W...AND NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N TO
14N BETWEEN 95W AND 98W.

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 09N120W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FAR TO THE NW OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 122W AND 125W. NE TRADES ARE
ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THE
LOW WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT W AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI.

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 12N132W WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT OF
LOW CENTER. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE
N SUPPORTS AN AREA OF NE 20-25 KT TRADES WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM N
QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-9 FT. THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W-SW THROUGH FRI AND WEAKEN.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ IN
THE EASTERN PAC DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THREE LOW PRES SYSTEMS
AND A TROPICAL WAVE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF EACH OTHER. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE DEEP
TROPICS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 108W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR
30N128W DOMINATES MOST OF THE NORTHERN WATERS N OF 18N W OF
110W. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE NW WATERS AND
EXTENDS FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER
AND TRANSITION INTO A QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH THROUGH THU
NIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 27N132W.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUED MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE WINDS
PULSING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS
OF 6-7 FT.

$$
GR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED JUST W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 13N WITH AXIS ALONG 50W/51W...MOVING AT 13 KT. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180-240 NM W OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 07N TO 10N. STRONG AT HIGH LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ARE PREVENTING THE CONVECTION FROM PERSISTING ONCE IT
FORMS. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND S AMERICA IN ABOUT
36-48 HRS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
07N13W...AND CONTINUES TO 05N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 05N20W...
AND CONTINUES TO 05N30W AND TO JUST E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
50W/51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-120 NM S OF
THE TROUGH BETWEEN 10W-20W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM WESTERN ALABAMA S TO
25N87W AND TO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AS VERY
DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 15 KT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SW TO THE NE GULF REMAINS IN PLACE. EARLIER DEEP
CONVECTION OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TYPE INTENSITY
THAT FIRED UP OVER EASTERN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED
SEWD INTO THE FAR N CENTRAL WATERS S AND SW OF LOUISIANA. AS OF
15Z...IT IS ANALYZED AS A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE THAT EXTENDS
FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA SW TO 28N94W. THE CONVECTION EXTENDS
WITHIN ABOUT 30 NM OF THIS LINE. BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS SLIDING
EASTWARD BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS S
OF 27N AND W OF 90W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY WNW IN THE MOIST SE FLOW ARE
SEEN S OF 26N E OF 88W...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN
88W-90W. THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TROUGH MOVED OFF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THIS MORNING...AND IS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE SW
GULF. IT HAS NO CONVECTION WITH IT AS IT IS UNDER THE DRY AND
SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT. HAZE APPEARS TO BE THINNING OUT OVER THE NW
GULF. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH THE EASTERN GULF THU...THEN
WEAKEN ON FRI AS SURFACE RIDGING CHANGES LITTLE OVER THE NE AND
CENTRAL GULF PORTIONS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SW TO
THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER FLOW IS NW BEHIND THE TROUGH.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WITH STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE SEEN OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW PORTION WHERE
THE LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW IS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO UPPER TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE SEEN N OF 18N BETWEEN 79W-85W. A PATCH OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD IS FROM
16N-19N BETWEEN SW HAITI TO JUST E OF JAMAICA. VERY SHALLOW
MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF
15N E OF 68W. NWS DOPPLER RADAR FROM SAN JUAN AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY ARE SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY BOUNDARY APPROACHING
FROM THE N. A STRONG UPPER JET E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. IT IS ADVECTING THIN UPPER
MOISTURE EASTWARD S OF 14N AND E OF NW COLOMBIA.

THE COMBINATION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN IS
RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
PRODUCING NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 72W-77W
WITH SEAS THERE UP TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT
ARE PRESENT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT ARE PRESENT. OVERALL...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS BRINGING MOSTLY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE ISLAND...EXCEPT OVER THE EXTREME SW
PORTION WHERE SHALLOW LAYER MOISTURE...AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
IN THE VICINITY SUPPORTS PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SW PORTION...AND WSW FROM THERE TO
JUST E OF JAMAICA. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH
MORE OF THE SCATTERED LIMITS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN
ON THU AS THE INFLUENCING SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE CONTENT
INCREASES THU AND FRI FOR MUCH OF HISPANIOLA AND VICINITY WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 26N61W
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
32N62W TO 28N63W...AND TO 22N59W. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 51W-
58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ARE NOTED
FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 58W-63W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ
AS DESCRIBED UNDER TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILING W OF THE
MID/UPPER LOW AND SURFACE KEEPING MOSTLY TRANQUIL WEATHER
THERE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMA
ISLAND CHAIN AND THE GREATER ANTILLES WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LEFT OVER FROM A PREVIOUS INSTABILITY LINE IS ADVECTING WSW
TOWARDS THOSE AREAS. THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY PICKS UP ON THIS LOW
-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS ATTENDANT BY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IS OBSERVED E OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF THE DOMAIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXNT20 KNHC 271801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED JUST W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 13N WITH AXIS ALONG 50W/51W...MOVING AT 13 KT. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180-240 NM W OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 07N TO 10N. STRONG AT HIGH LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ARE PREVENTING THE CONVECTION FROM PERSISTING ONCE IT
FORMS. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND S AMERICA IN ABOUT
36-48 HRS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
07N13W...AND CONTINUES TO 05N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 05N20W...
AND CONTINUES TO 05N30W AND TO JUST E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
50W/51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-120 NM S OF
THE TROUGH BETWEEN 10W-20W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM WESTERN ALABAMA S TO
25N87W AND TO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AS VERY
DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 15 KT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SW TO THE NE GULF REMAINS IN PLACE. EARLIER DEEP
CONVECTION OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TYPE INTENSITY
THAT FIRED UP OVER EASTERN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED
SEWD INTO THE FAR N CENTRAL WATERS S AND SW OF LOUISIANA. AS OF
15Z...IT IS ANALYZED AS A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE THAT EXTENDS
FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA SW TO 28N94W. THE CONVECTION EXTENDS
WITHIN ABOUT 30 NM OF THIS LINE. BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS SLIDING
EASTWARD BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS S
OF 27N AND W OF 90W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY WNW IN THE MOIST SE FLOW ARE
SEEN S OF 26N E OF 88W...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN
88W-90W. THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TROUGH MOVED OFF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THIS MORNING...AND IS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE SW
GULF. IT HAS NO CONVECTION WITH IT AS IT IS UNDER THE DRY AND
SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT. HAZE APPEARS TO BE THINNING OUT OVER THE NW
GULF. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH THE EASTERN GULF THU...THEN
WEAKEN ON FRI AS SURFACE RIDGING CHANGES LITTLE OVER THE NE AND
CENTRAL GULF PORTIONS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SW TO
THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER FLOW IS NW BEHIND THE TROUGH.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WITH STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE SEEN OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW PORTION WHERE
THE LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW IS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO UPPER TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE SEEN N OF 18N BETWEEN 79W-85W. A PATCH OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD IS FROM
16N-19N BETWEEN SW HAITI TO JUST E OF JAMAICA. VERY SHALLOW
MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF
15N E OF 68W. NWS DOPPLER RADAR FROM SAN JUAN AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY ARE SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY BOUNDARY APPROACHING
FROM THE N. A STRONG UPPER JET E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. IT IS ADVECTING THIN UPPER
MOISTURE EASTWARD S OF 14N AND E OF NW COLOMBIA.

THE COMBINATION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN IS
RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
PRODUCING NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 72W-77W
WITH SEAS THERE UP TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT
ARE PRESENT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT ARE PRESENT. OVERALL...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS BRINGING MOSTLY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE ISLAND...EXCEPT OVER THE EXTREME SW
PORTION WHERE SHALLOW LAYER MOISTURE...AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
IN THE VICINITY SUPPORTS PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SW PORTION...AND WSW FROM THERE TO
JUST E OF JAMAICA. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH
MORE OF THE SCATTERED LIMITS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN
ON THU AS THE INFLUENCING SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE CONTENT
INCREASES THU AND FRI FOR MUCH OF HISPANIOLA AND VICINITY WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 26N61W
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
32N62W TO 28N63W...AND TO 22N59W. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 51W-
58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ARE NOTED
FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 58W-63W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ
AS DESCRIBED UNDER TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILING W OF THE
MID/UPPER LOW AND SURFACE KEEPING MOSTLY TRANQUIL WEATHER
THERE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMA
ISLAND CHAIN AND THE GREATER ANTILLES WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LEFT OVER FROM A PREVIOUS INSTABILITY LINE IS ADVECTING WSW
TOWARDS THOSE AREAS. THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY PICKS UP ON THIS LOW
-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS ATTENDANT BY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IS OBSERVED E OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF THE DOMAIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED JUST W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 13N WITH AXIS ALONG 50W/51W...MOVING AT 13 KT. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180-240 NM W OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 07N TO 10N. STRONG AT HIGH LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ARE PREVENTING THE CONVECTION FROM PERSISTING ONCE IT
FORMS. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND S AMERICA IN ABOUT
36-48 HRS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
07N13W...AND CONTINUES TO 05N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 05N20W...
AND CONTINUES TO 05N30W AND TO JUST E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
50W/51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-120 NM S OF
THE TROUGH BETWEEN 10W-20W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM WESTERN ALABAMA S TO
25N87W AND TO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AS VERY
DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 15 KT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SW TO THE NE GULF REMAINS IN PLACE. EARLIER DEEP
CONVECTION OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TYPE INTENSITY
THAT FIRED UP OVER EASTERN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED
SEWD INTO THE FAR N CENTRAL WATERS S AND SW OF LOUISIANA. AS OF
15Z...IT IS ANALYZED AS A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE THAT EXTENDS
FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA SW TO 28N94W. THE CONVECTION EXTENDS
WITHIN ABOUT 30 NM OF THIS LINE. BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS SLIDING
EASTWARD BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS S
OF 27N AND W OF 90W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY WNW IN THE MOIST SE FLOW ARE
SEEN S OF 26N E OF 88W...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN
88W-90W. THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TROUGH MOVED OFF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THIS MORNING...AND IS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE SW
GULF. IT HAS NO CONVECTION WITH IT AS IT IS UNDER THE DRY AND
SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT. HAZE APPEARS TO BE THINNING OUT OVER THE NW
GULF. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH THE EASTERN GULF THU...THEN
WEAKEN ON FRI AS SURFACE RIDGING CHANGES LITTLE OVER THE NE AND
CENTRAL GULF PORTIONS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SW TO
THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER FLOW IS NW BEHIND THE TROUGH.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WITH STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE SEEN OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW PORTION WHERE
THE LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW IS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO UPPER TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE SEEN N OF 18N BETWEEN 79W-85W. A PATCH OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD IS FROM
16N-19N BETWEEN SW HAITI TO JUST E OF JAMAICA. VERY SHALLOW
MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF
15N E OF 68W. NWS DOPPLER RADAR FROM SAN JUAN AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY ARE SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY BOUNDARY APPROACHING
FROM THE N. A STRONG UPPER JET E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. IT IS ADVECTING THIN UPPER
MOISTURE EASTWARD S OF 14N AND E OF NW COLOMBIA.

THE COMBINATION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN IS
RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
PRODUCING NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 72W-77W
WITH SEAS THERE UP TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT
ARE PRESENT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT ARE PRESENT. OVERALL...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS BRINGING MOSTLY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE ISLAND...EXCEPT OVER THE EXTREME SW
PORTION WHERE SHALLOW LAYER MOISTURE...AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
IN THE VICINITY SUPPORTS PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SW PORTION...AND WSW FROM THERE TO
JUST E OF JAMAICA. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH
MORE OF THE SCATTERED LIMITS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN
ON THU AS THE INFLUENCING SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE CONTENT
INCREASES THU AND FRI FOR MUCH OF HISPANIOLA AND VICINITY WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 26N61W
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
32N62W TO 28N63W...AND TO 22N59W. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 51W-
58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ARE NOTED
FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 58W-63W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ
AS DESCRIBED UNDER TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILING W OF THE
MID/UPPER LOW AND SURFACE KEEPING MOSTLY TRANQUIL WEATHER
THERE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMA
ISLAND CHAIN AND THE GREATER ANTILLES WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LEFT OVER FROM A PREVIOUS INSTABILITY LINE IS ADVECTING WSW
TOWARDS THOSE AREAS. THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY PICKS UP ON THIS LOW
-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS ATTENDANT BY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IS OBSERVED E OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF THE DOMAIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXNT20 KNHC 271801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED JUST W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 13N WITH AXIS ALONG 50W/51W...MOVING AT 13 KT. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180-240 NM W OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 07N TO 10N. STRONG AT HIGH LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ARE PREVENTING THE CONVECTION FROM PERSISTING ONCE IT
FORMS. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND S AMERICA IN ABOUT
36-48 HRS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
07N13W...AND CONTINUES TO 05N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 05N20W...
AND CONTINUES TO 05N30W AND TO JUST E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
50W/51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-120 NM S OF
THE TROUGH BETWEEN 10W-20W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM WESTERN ALABAMA S TO
25N87W AND TO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AS VERY
DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 15 KT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SW TO THE NE GULF REMAINS IN PLACE. EARLIER DEEP
CONVECTION OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TYPE INTENSITY
THAT FIRED UP OVER EASTERN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED
SEWD INTO THE FAR N CENTRAL WATERS S AND SW OF LOUISIANA. AS OF
15Z...IT IS ANALYZED AS A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE THAT EXTENDS
FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA SW TO 28N94W. THE CONVECTION EXTENDS
WITHIN ABOUT 30 NM OF THIS LINE. BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS SLIDING
EASTWARD BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS S
OF 27N AND W OF 90W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY WNW IN THE MOIST SE FLOW ARE
SEEN S OF 26N E OF 88W...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN
88W-90W. THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TROUGH MOVED OFF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THIS MORNING...AND IS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE SW
GULF. IT HAS NO CONVECTION WITH IT AS IT IS UNDER THE DRY AND
SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT. HAZE APPEARS TO BE THINNING OUT OVER THE NW
GULF. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH THE EASTERN GULF THU...THEN
WEAKEN ON FRI AS SURFACE RIDGING CHANGES LITTLE OVER THE NE AND
CENTRAL GULF PORTIONS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SW TO
THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER FLOW IS NW BEHIND THE TROUGH.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WITH STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE SEEN OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW PORTION WHERE
THE LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW IS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO UPPER TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE SEEN N OF 18N BETWEEN 79W-85W. A PATCH OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD IS FROM
16N-19N BETWEEN SW HAITI TO JUST E OF JAMAICA. VERY SHALLOW
MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF
15N E OF 68W. NWS DOPPLER RADAR FROM SAN JUAN AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY ARE SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY BOUNDARY APPROACHING
FROM THE N. A STRONG UPPER JET E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. IT IS ADVECTING THIN UPPER
MOISTURE EASTWARD S OF 14N AND E OF NW COLOMBIA.

THE COMBINATION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN IS
RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
PRODUCING NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 72W-77W
WITH SEAS THERE UP TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT
ARE PRESENT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT ARE PRESENT. OVERALL...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS BRINGING MOSTLY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE ISLAND...EXCEPT OVER THE EXTREME SW
PORTION WHERE SHALLOW LAYER MOISTURE...AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
IN THE VICINITY SUPPORTS PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SW PORTION...AND WSW FROM THERE TO
JUST E OF JAMAICA. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH
MORE OF THE SCATTERED LIMITS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN
ON THU AS THE INFLUENCING SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE CONTENT
INCREASES THU AND FRI FOR MUCH OF HISPANIOLA AND VICINITY WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 26N61W
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
32N62W TO 28N63W...AND TO 22N59W. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 51W-
58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ARE NOTED
FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 58W-63W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ
AS DESCRIBED UNDER TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILING W OF THE
MID/UPPER LOW AND SURFACE KEEPING MOSTLY TRANQUIL WEATHER
THERE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMA
ISLAND CHAIN AND THE GREATER ANTILLES WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LEFT OVER FROM A PREVIOUS INSTABILITY LINE IS ADVECTING WSW
TOWARDS THOSE AREAS. THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY PICKS UP ON THIS LOW
-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS ATTENDANT BY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IS OBSERVED E OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF THE DOMAIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXNT20 KNHC 271801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED JUST W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 13N WITH AXIS ALONG 50W/51W...MOVING AT 13 KT. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180-240 NM W OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 07N TO 10N. STRONG AT HIGH LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ARE PREVENTING THE CONVECTION FROM PERSISTING ONCE IT
FORMS. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND S AMERICA IN ABOUT
36-48 HRS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
07N13W...AND CONTINUES TO 05N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 05N20W...
AND CONTINUES TO 05N30W AND TO JUST E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
50W/51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-120 NM S OF
THE TROUGH BETWEEN 10W-20W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM WESTERN ALABAMA S TO
25N87W AND TO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AS VERY
DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 15 KT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SW TO THE NE GULF REMAINS IN PLACE. EARLIER DEEP
CONVECTION OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TYPE INTENSITY
THAT FIRED UP OVER EASTERN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED
SEWD INTO THE FAR N CENTRAL WATERS S AND SW OF LOUISIANA. AS OF
15Z...IT IS ANALYZED AS A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE THAT EXTENDS
FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA SW TO 28N94W. THE CONVECTION EXTENDS
WITHIN ABOUT 30 NM OF THIS LINE. BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS SLIDING
EASTWARD BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS S
OF 27N AND W OF 90W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY WNW IN THE MOIST SE FLOW ARE
SEEN S OF 26N E OF 88W...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN
88W-90W. THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TROUGH MOVED OFF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THIS MORNING...AND IS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE SW
GULF. IT HAS NO CONVECTION WITH IT AS IT IS UNDER THE DRY AND
SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT. HAZE APPEARS TO BE THINNING OUT OVER THE NW
GULF. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH THE EASTERN GULF THU...THEN
WEAKEN ON FRI AS SURFACE RIDGING CHANGES LITTLE OVER THE NE AND
CENTRAL GULF PORTIONS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SW TO
THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER FLOW IS NW BEHIND THE TROUGH.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WITH STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE SEEN OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW PORTION WHERE
THE LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW IS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO UPPER TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE SEEN N OF 18N BETWEEN 79W-85W. A PATCH OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD IS FROM
16N-19N BETWEEN SW HAITI TO JUST E OF JAMAICA. VERY SHALLOW
MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF
15N E OF 68W. NWS DOPPLER RADAR FROM SAN JUAN AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY ARE SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY BOUNDARY APPROACHING
FROM THE N. A STRONG UPPER JET E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. IT IS ADVECTING THIN UPPER
MOISTURE EASTWARD S OF 14N AND E OF NW COLOMBIA.

THE COMBINATION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN IS
RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
PRODUCING NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 72W-77W
WITH SEAS THERE UP TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT
ARE PRESENT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT ARE PRESENT. OVERALL...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS BRINGING MOSTLY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE ISLAND...EXCEPT OVER THE EXTREME SW
PORTION WHERE SHALLOW LAYER MOISTURE...AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
IN THE VICINITY SUPPORTS PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SW PORTION...AND WSW FROM THERE TO
JUST E OF JAMAICA. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH
MORE OF THE SCATTERED LIMITS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN
ON THU AS THE INFLUENCING SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE CONTENT
INCREASES THU AND FRI FOR MUCH OF HISPANIOLA AND VICINITY WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 26N61W
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
32N62W TO 28N63W...AND TO 22N59W. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 51W-
58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ARE NOTED
FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 58W-63W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ
AS DESCRIBED UNDER TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILING W OF THE
MID/UPPER LOW AND SURFACE KEEPING MOSTLY TRANQUIL WEATHER
THERE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMA
ISLAND CHAIN AND THE GREATER ANTILLES WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LEFT OVER FROM A PREVIOUS INSTABILITY LINE IS ADVECTING WSW
TOWARDS THOSE AREAS. THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY PICKS UP ON THIS LOW
-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS ATTENDANT BY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IS OBSERVED E OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF THE DOMAIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXNT20 KNHC 271801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED JUST W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 13N WITH AXIS ALONG 50W/51W...MOVING AT 13 KT. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180-240 NM W OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 07N TO 10N. STRONG AT HIGH LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ARE PREVENTING THE CONVECTION FROM PERSISTING ONCE IT
FORMS. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND S AMERICA IN ABOUT
36-48 HRS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
07N13W...AND CONTINUES TO 05N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 05N20W...
AND CONTINUES TO 05N30W AND TO JUST E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
50W/51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-120 NM S OF
THE TROUGH BETWEEN 10W-20W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM WESTERN ALABAMA S TO
25N87W AND TO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AS VERY
DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 15 KT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SW TO THE NE GULF REMAINS IN PLACE. EARLIER DEEP
CONVECTION OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TYPE INTENSITY
THAT FIRED UP OVER EASTERN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED
SEWD INTO THE FAR N CENTRAL WATERS S AND SW OF LOUISIANA. AS OF
15Z...IT IS ANALYZED AS A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE THAT EXTENDS
FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA SW TO 28N94W. THE CONVECTION EXTENDS
WITHIN ABOUT 30 NM OF THIS LINE. BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS SLIDING
EASTWARD BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS S
OF 27N AND W OF 90W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY WNW IN THE MOIST SE FLOW ARE
SEEN S OF 26N E OF 88W...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN
88W-90W. THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TROUGH MOVED OFF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THIS MORNING...AND IS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE SW
GULF. IT HAS NO CONVECTION WITH IT AS IT IS UNDER THE DRY AND
SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT. HAZE APPEARS TO BE THINNING OUT OVER THE NW
GULF. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH THE EASTERN GULF THU...THEN
WEAKEN ON FRI AS SURFACE RIDGING CHANGES LITTLE OVER THE NE AND
CENTRAL GULF PORTIONS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SW TO
THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER FLOW IS NW BEHIND THE TROUGH.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WITH STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE SEEN OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW PORTION WHERE
THE LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW IS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO UPPER TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE SEEN N OF 18N BETWEEN 79W-85W. A PATCH OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD IS FROM
16N-19N BETWEEN SW HAITI TO JUST E OF JAMAICA. VERY SHALLOW
MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF
15N E OF 68W. NWS DOPPLER RADAR FROM SAN JUAN AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY ARE SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY BOUNDARY APPROACHING
FROM THE N. A STRONG UPPER JET E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. IT IS ADVECTING THIN UPPER
MOISTURE EASTWARD S OF 14N AND E OF NW COLOMBIA.

THE COMBINATION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN IS
RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
PRODUCING NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 72W-77W
WITH SEAS THERE UP TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT
ARE PRESENT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT ARE PRESENT. OVERALL...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS BRINGING MOSTLY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE ISLAND...EXCEPT OVER THE EXTREME SW
PORTION WHERE SHALLOW LAYER MOISTURE...AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
IN THE VICINITY SUPPORTS PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SW PORTION...AND WSW FROM THERE TO
JUST E OF JAMAICA. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH
MORE OF THE SCATTERED LIMITS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN
ON THU AS THE INFLUENCING SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE CONTENT
INCREASES THU AND FRI FOR MUCH OF HISPANIOLA AND VICINITY WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 26N61W
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
32N62W TO 28N63W...AND TO 22N59W. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 51W-
58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ARE NOTED
FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 58W-63W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ
AS DESCRIBED UNDER TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILING W OF THE
MID/UPPER LOW AND SURFACE KEEPING MOSTLY TRANQUIL WEATHER
THERE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMA
ISLAND CHAIN AND THE GREATER ANTILLES WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LEFT OVER FROM A PREVIOUS INSTABILITY LINE IS ADVECTING WSW
TOWARDS THOSE AREAS. THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY PICKS UP ON THIS LOW
-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS ATTENDANT BY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IS OBSERVED E OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF THE DOMAIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AGUIRRE


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271738
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 800 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continue to show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions
are conducive for development and this system is likely to
become a tropical depression during the next day or so while it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Shower activity remains limited in association with a weak area of
low pressure located about 1550 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of Baja California. Environmental conditions are expected to
remain unfavorable and development of this system is not
anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown/Roberts


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271738
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 800 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continue to show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions
are conducive for development and this system is likely to
become a tropical depression during the next day or so while it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Shower activity remains limited in association with a weak area of
low pressure located about 1550 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of Baja California. Environmental conditions are expected to
remain unfavorable and development of this system is not
anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown/Roberts


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271738
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 800 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continue to show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions
are conducive for development and this system is likely to
become a tropical depression during the next day or so while it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Shower activity remains limited in association with a weak area of
low pressure located about 1550 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of Baja California. Environmental conditions are expected to
remain unfavorable and development of this system is not
anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown/Roberts


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271738
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 800 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continue to show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions
are conducive for development and this system is likely to
become a tropical depression during the next day or so while it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Shower activity remains limited in association with a weak area of
low pressure located about 1550 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of Baja California. Environmental conditions are expected to
remain unfavorable and development of this system is not
anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown/Roberts


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271738
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 800 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continue to show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions
are conducive for development and this system is likely to
become a tropical depression during the next day or so while it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Shower activity remains limited in association with a weak area of
low pressure located about 1550 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of Baja California. Environmental conditions are expected to
remain unfavorable and development of this system is not
anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown/Roberts



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271738
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 800 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continue to show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions
are conducive for development and this system is likely to
become a tropical depression during the next day or so while it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Shower activity remains limited in association with a weak area of
low pressure located about 1550 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of Baja California. Environmental conditions are expected to
remain unfavorable and development of this system is not
anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown/Roberts


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271525
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 09N105W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FRI MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW INTO A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND SCATTEROMETER
DATA AT 0340 UTC SHOWED 20-25 KT SW WINDS DISPLACED 150-240 NM
SE OF THE CIRC CENTER. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 04-12N ALONG 95W HAS BEEN MOVING
W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 93W AND 98W.

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 09N119W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FAR TO THE WEST OF
THE LOW WITHIN 90 NM OF 11N123W. NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20
KT WITHIN 180 NM OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW WITH COMBINED
SEAS OF 7-8 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W
AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI.

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 12N131W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER. THE PRES
GRADIENT SUPPORTS NE 15-20 KT TRADES WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM NW OF
THE LOW WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT W-SW THROUGH FRI AND WEAKEN.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ IN
THE EASTERN PAC. BROAD AREA UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALLOWING
RANDOMLY SPACED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 03N TO 14N E OF 101W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 105W AND 126W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1020 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR
27N129W PREVAILS OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN WATERS N OF 18N W OF
110W. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W
TO 22N143W BISECTS THE RIDGE IN FAR NW WATERS. THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN FURTHER AND TRANSITION INTO A QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH
THROUGH THU NIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 27N132W.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUED MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE WINDS
PULSING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH FRI NIGHT...BUT NO
LONGER SHOWS WINDS GREATER THAN 20 KT...AND ASSOCIATED SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW 8 FT AS A RESULT. THE LIKELIHOOD
OF ANY GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 20-25 KT N WIND EVENT APPEARS LOWER
AS WELL. LATEST GFS SHOWS MAX WINDS ONLY 10-15 KT THU AND FRI.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271525
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 09N105W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FRI MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW INTO A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND SCATTEROMETER
DATA AT 0340 UTC SHOWED 20-25 KT SW WINDS DISPLACED 150-240 NM
SE OF THE CIRC CENTER. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 04-12N ALONG 95W HAS BEEN MOVING
W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 93W AND 98W.

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 09N119W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FAR TO THE WEST OF
THE LOW WITHIN 90 NM OF 11N123W. NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20
KT WITHIN 180 NM OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW WITH COMBINED
SEAS OF 7-8 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W
AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI.

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 12N131W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER. THE PRES
GRADIENT SUPPORTS NE 15-20 KT TRADES WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM NW OF
THE LOW WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT W-SW THROUGH FRI AND WEAKEN.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ IN
THE EASTERN PAC. BROAD AREA UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALLOWING
RANDOMLY SPACED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 03N TO 14N E OF 101W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 105W AND 126W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1020 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR
27N129W PREVAILS OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN WATERS N OF 18N W OF
110W. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W
TO 22N143W BISECTS THE RIDGE IN FAR NW WATERS. THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN FURTHER AND TRANSITION INTO A QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH
THROUGH THU NIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 27N132W.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUED MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE WINDS
PULSING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH FRI NIGHT...BUT NO
LONGER SHOWS WINDS GREATER THAN 20 KT...AND ASSOCIATED SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW 8 FT AS A RESULT. THE LIKELIHOOD
OF ANY GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 20-25 KT N WIND EVENT APPEARS LOWER
AS WELL. LATEST GFS SHOWS MAX WINDS ONLY 10-15 KT THU AND FRI.

$$
MUNDELL



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271130
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms in association with a broad area of
low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
coast of Mexico have become better organized.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this system and a
tropical depression is likely to form in the next couple of days as
the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

A nearly stationary area of low pressure located about 1500 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California continues to
produce a small area of showers and thunderstorms to the east
of the center.  Environmental conditions are expected to become less
favorable over the next day or so, and significant development of
this system is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Brown


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271130
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms in association with a broad area of
low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
coast of Mexico have become better organized.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this system and a
tropical depression is likely to form in the next couple of days as
the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

A nearly stationary area of low pressure located about 1500 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California continues to
produce a small area of showers and thunderstorms to the east
of the center.  Environmental conditions are expected to become less
favorable over the next day or so, and significant development of
this system is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Brown



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271008
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N WITH
AXIS NEAR 48W...MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 160 NM AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AXIS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF IT. FURTHER
CONVECTION IS BEING HINDERED MAINLY BY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND
SHEAR.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 04N TO 10N E OF
20W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE
SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS E TO THE SW GULF WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE
AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN GULF. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 21N93W TO 14N94W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF IT S OF 20N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH TWO
FORMER TROUGHS ARE N OF 26N E OF 87W. HAZE AND FOG CONTINUE TO
BE REPORTED IN THE NW GULF N OF 27 W OF 90W. SURFACE RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE
DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW
BASIN...RESULTING IN NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77 WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADES
OF OF 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY
SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW BASIN...WHICH ALONG
WITH TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER
WESTERN CUBA AND ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI ADJACENT WATERS. SHALLOW
MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. FAIR WEATHER IS
ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW ISLAND
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND ADJACENT
WATERS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND AS
DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THUS SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY BEING
ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING AND SUPPORTED
BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 26N60W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 34N59W TO
23N60W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
22N TO 32N BETWEEN 51W AND 59W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE
ITCZ. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. N OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN
32W AND 52W. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT W TOWARDS
THE SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 271008
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N WITH
AXIS NEAR 48W...MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 160 NM AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AXIS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF IT. FURTHER
CONVECTION IS BEING HINDERED MAINLY BY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND
SHEAR.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 04N TO 10N E OF
20W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE
SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS E TO THE SW GULF WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE
AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN GULF. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 21N93W TO 14N94W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF IT S OF 20N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH TWO
FORMER TROUGHS ARE N OF 26N E OF 87W. HAZE AND FOG CONTINUE TO
BE REPORTED IN THE NW GULF N OF 27 W OF 90W. SURFACE RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE
DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW
BASIN...RESULTING IN NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77 WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADES
OF OF 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY
SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW BASIN...WHICH ALONG
WITH TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER
WESTERN CUBA AND ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI ADJACENT WATERS. SHALLOW
MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. FAIR WEATHER IS
ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW ISLAND
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND ADJACENT
WATERS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND AS
DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THUS SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY BEING
ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING AND SUPPORTED
BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 26N60W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 34N59W TO
23N60W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
22N TO 32N BETWEEN 51W AND 59W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE
ITCZ. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. N OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN
32W AND 52W. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT W TOWARDS
THE SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 271008
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N WITH
AXIS NEAR 48W...MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 160 NM AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AXIS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF IT. FURTHER
CONVECTION IS BEING HINDERED MAINLY BY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND
SHEAR.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 04N TO 10N E OF
20W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE
SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS E TO THE SW GULF WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE
AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN GULF. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 21N93W TO 14N94W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF IT S OF 20N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH TWO
FORMER TROUGHS ARE N OF 26N E OF 87W. HAZE AND FOG CONTINUE TO
BE REPORTED IN THE NW GULF N OF 27 W OF 90W. SURFACE RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE
DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW
BASIN...RESULTING IN NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77 WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADES
OF OF 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY
SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW BASIN...WHICH ALONG
WITH TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER
WESTERN CUBA AND ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI ADJACENT WATERS. SHALLOW
MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. FAIR WEATHER IS
ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW ISLAND
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND ADJACENT
WATERS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND AS
DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THUS SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY BEING
ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING AND SUPPORTED
BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 26N60W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 34N59W TO
23N60W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
22N TO 32N BETWEEN 51W AND 59W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE
ITCZ. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. N OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN
32W AND 52W. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT W TOWARDS
THE SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 271008
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N WITH
AXIS NEAR 48W...MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 160 NM AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AXIS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF IT. FURTHER
CONVECTION IS BEING HINDERED MAINLY BY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND
SHEAR.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 04N TO 10N E OF
20W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE
SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS E TO THE SW GULF WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE
AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN GULF. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 21N93W TO 14N94W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF IT S OF 20N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH TWO
FORMER TROUGHS ARE N OF 26N E OF 87W. HAZE AND FOG CONTINUE TO
BE REPORTED IN THE NW GULF N OF 27 W OF 90W. SURFACE RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE
DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW
BASIN...RESULTING IN NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77 WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE...TRADES
OF OF 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY
SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW BASIN...WHICH ALONG
WITH TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER
WESTERN CUBA AND ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI ADJACENT WATERS. SHALLOW
MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. FAIR WEATHER IS
ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW ISLAND
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND ADJACENT
WATERS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND AS
DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THUS SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY BEING
ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING AND SUPPORTED
BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 26N60W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 34N59W TO
23N60W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
22N TO 32N BETWEEN 51W AND 59W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE
ITCZ. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. N OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN
32W AND 52W. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT W TOWARDS
THE SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270951
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW HAS FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
09.5N105.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 330 NM OF 08N107.5W. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY 10-15 KT NEAR THE CENTER...THE GRADIENT
IS SUPPORTING 15 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW WITHIN 540 NM OVER THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE LOW WHERE COMBINED SEAS ARE 7-8 FT PRIMARILY DUE
TO CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO
NEAR 10N109W AND DEEPEN TO ABOUT 1007 MB TONIGHT AND REACH NEAR
12N112W ON THU NIGHT WITH AN ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 1005 MB. BY
THEN CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION AS THE LOW CONTINUES NW REACHING NEAR 13N113W ON FRI
NIGHT AND NEAR 14N113W ON SAT NIGHT.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04-12N ALONG 94W AND HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OF 07N94.5W.

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 09N119W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED NW OF THE
LOW WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14N115W TO 09N124W.
NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT WITHIN 180 NM OVER THE NW
QUADRANT OF THE LOW WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT IN MIXING S AND
SW SWELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 09N123W TONIGHT
AND NEAR 09N125W ON THU NIGHT. COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT ARE THEN
EXPECTED WITHIN 390 NM OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW.

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED AT 12.5N131W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 15N128W TO
09N134W. THE GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT NE 15-20 KT TRADES WITHIN
ABUT 300 NM NW OF THE LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH COMBINED
SEAS OF 7-8 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITHIN 75 NM OF 03N79W AND PARALLEL TO THE
PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 08N78W TO 08N88W...ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN 60
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.5N90W TO 16N96W...AND ACROSS
THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 06N119W TO 01N130W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OBSERVED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N148W WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY DISSIPATING FROM
32N134W TO 28N133W TO 25N140W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE WINDS ARE 5-10
KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS.

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 33N120W AND IS PROGRESSING NE
WITH TIME WHILE TRAILING AN UPPER TROUGH S TO BASE NEAR 23N119W.
UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE SURROUNDS THE CYCLONE AND EXTENDS E ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

UPPER ANTICYCLONES ARE CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 14N121W
AND NEAR 13N102W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING WSW TO A CREST
NEAR 13N132W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES AS
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS
ADVECTED S ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 90-130W...SOME OF THE
DEBRIS MOISTURE CONCENTRATES INTO A NARROW TROPICAL PLUME
CROSSING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS NW TO BEYOND 32N132W WITH UPPER
MOISTURE SPREADING E AND SE ACROSS THE RIDGE CREST INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 29N128W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER COLOMBIA RIDGES NW TO A CREST NEAR
PANAMA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
TO BASE OVER NICARAGUA. THIS PATTERN SETS UP AN AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION AND THE DEEP TROPICS
BETWEEN 80-90W AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. SOME OF THE DEBRIS
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE TO 20-25
KT LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING BRIEFLY TO 8 FT AT SUNRISE
THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...CURRENTLY ENE 20-25 KT WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...THEN EXPECT ANOTHER BRIEF 20-25 KT
SURGE AGAIN TONIGHT..THEN ONLY 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES
FORECAST THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270951
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW HAS FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
09.5N105.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 330 NM OF 08N107.5W. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY 10-15 KT NEAR THE CENTER...THE GRADIENT
IS SUPPORTING 15 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW WITHIN 540 NM OVER THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE LOW WHERE COMBINED SEAS ARE 7-8 FT PRIMARILY DUE
TO CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO
NEAR 10N109W AND DEEPEN TO ABOUT 1007 MB TONIGHT AND REACH NEAR
12N112W ON THU NIGHT WITH AN ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 1005 MB. BY
THEN CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION AS THE LOW CONTINUES NW REACHING NEAR 13N113W ON FRI
NIGHT AND NEAR 14N113W ON SAT NIGHT.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04-12N ALONG 94W AND HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OF 07N94.5W.

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 09N119W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED NW OF THE
LOW WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14N115W TO 09N124W.
NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT WITHIN 180 NM OVER THE NW
QUADRANT OF THE LOW WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT IN MIXING S AND
SW SWELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 09N123W TONIGHT
AND NEAR 09N125W ON THU NIGHT. COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT ARE THEN
EXPECTED WITHIN 390 NM OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW.

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED AT 12.5N131W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 15N128W TO
09N134W. THE GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT NE 15-20 KT TRADES WITHIN
ABUT 300 NM NW OF THE LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH COMBINED
SEAS OF 7-8 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITHIN 75 NM OF 03N79W AND PARALLEL TO THE
PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 08N78W TO 08N88W...ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN 60
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.5N90W TO 16N96W...AND ACROSS
THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 06N119W TO 01N130W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OBSERVED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N148W WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY DISSIPATING FROM
32N134W TO 28N133W TO 25N140W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE WINDS ARE 5-10
KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS.

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 33N120W AND IS PROGRESSING NE
WITH TIME WHILE TRAILING AN UPPER TROUGH S TO BASE NEAR 23N119W.
UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE SURROUNDS THE CYCLONE AND EXTENDS E ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

UPPER ANTICYCLONES ARE CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 14N121W
AND NEAR 13N102W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING WSW TO A CREST
NEAR 13N132W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES AS
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS
ADVECTED S ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 90-130W...SOME OF THE
DEBRIS MOISTURE CONCENTRATES INTO A NARROW TROPICAL PLUME
CROSSING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS NW TO BEYOND 32N132W WITH UPPER
MOISTURE SPREADING E AND SE ACROSS THE RIDGE CREST INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 29N128W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER COLOMBIA RIDGES NW TO A CREST NEAR
PANAMA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
TO BASE OVER NICARAGUA. THIS PATTERN SETS UP AN AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION AND THE DEEP TROPICS
BETWEEN 80-90W AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. SOME OF THE DEBRIS
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE TO 20-25
KT LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING BRIEFLY TO 8 FT AT SUNRISE
THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...CURRENTLY ENE 20-25 KT WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...THEN EXPECT ANOTHER BRIEF 20-25 KT
SURGE AGAIN TONIGHT..THEN ONLY 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES
FORECAST THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

$$
NELSON



000
AXNT20 KNHC 270603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N WITH
AXIS NEAR 45W...MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC IS LIMITING
THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE APPROXIMATE WAVE AXIS POSITION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 03N TO 10N E OF
17W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE
SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SW ACROSS
CENTRAL U.S. TO TEXAS AND MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A CENTER OF 1031 MB OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF. EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE HEAT TROUGH IS OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 22N90W TO 15N93W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH SOUTHERN PORTION OF ITS AXIS
EXTENDING OVER SE GULF WATERS FROM 26N82W TO 25N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH EXTENDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM
25N TO 30N. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM
29N86W TO 25N86W ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. HAZE AND FOG IS ALSO BEING
REPORTED IN THE NW GULF N OF 27 W OF 90W. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW
BASIN...RESULTING IN NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 73W AND 79 WITH SEAS RANGING UP TO 9 FT.
ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF OF 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT DOMINATE.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW
BASIN...WHICH ALONG WITH TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND ADJACENT
WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. FAIR
WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW ISLAND
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND
ADJACENT WATERS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND
AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THUS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH
WED MORNING BEING ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 27N60W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO
22N61W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
22N TO 31N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE
ITCZ. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 34W AND
53W. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE SW N ATLC DURING THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 270603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N WITH
AXIS NEAR 45W...MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC IS LIMITING
THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE APPROXIMATE WAVE AXIS POSITION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 03N TO 10N E OF
17W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE
SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SW ACROSS
CENTRAL U.S. TO TEXAS AND MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A CENTER OF 1031 MB OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF. EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE HEAT TROUGH IS OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 22N90W TO 15N93W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH SOUTHERN PORTION OF ITS AXIS
EXTENDING OVER SE GULF WATERS FROM 26N82W TO 25N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH EXTENDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM
25N TO 30N. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM
29N86W TO 25N86W ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. HAZE AND FOG IS ALSO BEING
REPORTED IN THE NW GULF N OF 27 W OF 90W. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW
BASIN...RESULTING IN NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 73W AND 79 WITH SEAS RANGING UP TO 9 FT.
ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF OF 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT DOMINATE.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW
BASIN...WHICH ALONG WITH TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND ADJACENT
WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. FAIR
WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW ISLAND
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND
ADJACENT WATERS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND
AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THUS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH
WED MORNING BEING ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 27N60W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO
22N61W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
22N TO 31N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE
ITCZ. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 34W AND
53W. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE SW N ATLC DURING THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 270603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N WITH
AXIS NEAR 45W...MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC IS LIMITING
THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE APPROXIMATE WAVE AXIS POSITION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 03N TO 10N E OF
17W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE
SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SW ACROSS
CENTRAL U.S. TO TEXAS AND MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A CENTER OF 1031 MB OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF. EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE HEAT TROUGH IS OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 22N90W TO 15N93W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH SOUTHERN PORTION OF ITS AXIS
EXTENDING OVER SE GULF WATERS FROM 26N82W TO 25N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH EXTENDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM
25N TO 30N. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM
29N86W TO 25N86W ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. HAZE AND FOG IS ALSO BEING
REPORTED IN THE NW GULF N OF 27 W OF 90W. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW
BASIN...RESULTING IN NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 73W AND 79 WITH SEAS RANGING UP TO 9 FT.
ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF OF 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT DOMINATE.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW
BASIN...WHICH ALONG WITH TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND ADJACENT
WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. FAIR
WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW ISLAND
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND
ADJACENT WATERS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND
AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THUS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH
WED MORNING BEING ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 27N60W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO
22N61W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
22N TO 31N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE
ITCZ. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 34W AND
53W. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE SW N ATLC DURING THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 270603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N WITH
AXIS NEAR 45W...MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC IS LIMITING
THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE APPROXIMATE WAVE AXIS POSITION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 03N TO 10N E OF
17W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE
SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SW ACROSS
CENTRAL U.S. TO TEXAS AND MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A CENTER OF 1031 MB OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF. EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE HEAT TROUGH IS OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 22N90W TO 15N93W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH SOUTHERN PORTION OF ITS AXIS
EXTENDING OVER SE GULF WATERS FROM 26N82W TO 25N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH EXTENDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM
25N TO 30N. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM
29N86W TO 25N86W ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. HAZE AND FOG IS ALSO BEING
REPORTED IN THE NW GULF N OF 27 W OF 90W. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW
BASIN...RESULTING IN NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 73W AND 79 WITH SEAS RANGING UP TO 9 FT.
ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF OF 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT DOMINATE.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW
BASIN...WHICH ALONG WITH TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND ADJACENT
WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. FAIR
WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW ISLAND
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND
ADJACENT WATERS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND
AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THUS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH
WED MORNING BEING ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 27N60W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO
22N61W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
22N TO 31N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE
ITCZ. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 34W AND
53W. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE SW N ATLC DURING THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 270603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N WITH
AXIS NEAR 45W...MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC IS LIMITING
THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE APPROXIMATE WAVE AXIS POSITION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 03N TO 10N E OF
17W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE
SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SW ACROSS
CENTRAL U.S. TO TEXAS AND MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A CENTER OF 1031 MB OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF. EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE HEAT TROUGH IS OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 22N90W TO 15N93W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH SOUTHERN PORTION OF ITS AXIS
EXTENDING OVER SE GULF WATERS FROM 26N82W TO 25N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH EXTENDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM
25N TO 30N. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM
29N86W TO 25N86W ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. HAZE AND FOG IS ALSO BEING
REPORTED IN THE NW GULF N OF 27 W OF 90W. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW
BASIN...RESULTING IN NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 73W AND 79 WITH SEAS RANGING UP TO 9 FT.
ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF OF 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT DOMINATE.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW
BASIN...WHICH ALONG WITH TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND ADJACENT
WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. FAIR
WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW ISLAND
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND
ADJACENT WATERS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND
AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THUS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH
WED MORNING BEING ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 27N60W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO
22N61W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
22N TO 31N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE
ITCZ. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 34W AND
53W. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE SW N ATLC DURING THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 270603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N WITH
AXIS NEAR 45W...MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC IS LIMITING
THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE APPROXIMATE WAVE AXIS POSITION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 03N TO 10N E OF
17W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE
SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SW ACROSS
CENTRAL U.S. TO TEXAS AND MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A CENTER OF 1031 MB OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF. EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE HEAT TROUGH IS OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 22N90W TO 15N93W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH SOUTHERN PORTION OF ITS AXIS
EXTENDING OVER SE GULF WATERS FROM 26N82W TO 25N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH EXTENDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM
25N TO 30N. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM
29N86W TO 25N86W ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. HAZE AND FOG IS ALSO BEING
REPORTED IN THE NW GULF N OF 27 W OF 90W. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW
BASIN...RESULTING IN NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 73W AND 79 WITH SEAS RANGING UP TO 9 FT.
ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF OF 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT DOMINATE.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW
BASIN...WHICH ALONG WITH TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND ADJACENT
WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. FAIR
WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW ISLAND
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND
ADJACENT WATERS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND
AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THUS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH
WED MORNING BEING ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 27N60W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO
22N61W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
22N TO 31N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE
ITCZ. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 34W AND
53W. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE SW N ATLC DURING THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 270603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N WITH
AXIS NEAR 45W...MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC IS LIMITING
THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE APPROXIMATE WAVE AXIS POSITION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 03N TO 10N E OF
17W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE
SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SW ACROSS
CENTRAL U.S. TO TEXAS AND MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A CENTER OF 1031 MB OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF. EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE HEAT TROUGH IS OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 22N90W TO 15N93W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH SOUTHERN PORTION OF ITS AXIS
EXTENDING OVER SE GULF WATERS FROM 26N82W TO 25N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH EXTENDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM
25N TO 30N. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM
29N86W TO 25N86W ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. HAZE AND FOG IS ALSO BEING
REPORTED IN THE NW GULF N OF 27 W OF 90W. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW
BASIN...RESULTING IN NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 73W AND 79 WITH SEAS RANGING UP TO 9 FT.
ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF OF 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT DOMINATE.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW
BASIN...WHICH ALONG WITH TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND ADJACENT
WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. FAIR
WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW ISLAND
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND
ADJACENT WATERS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND
AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THUS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH
WED MORNING BEING ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 27N60W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO
22N61W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
22N TO 31N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE
ITCZ. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 34W AND
53W. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE SW N ATLC DURING THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 270603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N WITH
AXIS NEAR 45W...MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC IS LIMITING
THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE APPROXIMATE WAVE AXIS POSITION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 03N TO 10N E OF
17W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE
SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SW ACROSS
CENTRAL U.S. TO TEXAS AND MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A CENTER OF 1031 MB OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF. EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE HEAT TROUGH IS OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 22N90W TO 15N93W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH SOUTHERN PORTION OF ITS AXIS
EXTENDING OVER SE GULF WATERS FROM 26N82W TO 25N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH EXTENDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM
25N TO 30N. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM
29N86W TO 25N86W ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. HAZE AND FOG IS ALSO BEING
REPORTED IN THE NW GULF N OF 27 W OF 90W. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW
BASIN...RESULTING IN NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 73W AND 79 WITH SEAS RANGING UP TO 9 FT.
ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF OF 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT DOMINATE.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW
BASIN...WHICH ALONG WITH TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND ADJACENT
WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. FAIR
WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW ISLAND
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND
ADJACENT WATERS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND
AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THUS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH
WED MORNING BEING ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 27N60W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO
22N61W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
22N TO 31N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE
ITCZ. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 34W AND
53W. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE SW N ATLC DURING THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 270603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N WITH
AXIS NEAR 45W...MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC IS LIMITING
THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE APPROXIMATE WAVE AXIS POSITION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 03N TO 10N E OF
17W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE
SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SW ACROSS
CENTRAL U.S. TO TEXAS AND MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A CENTER OF 1031 MB OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF. EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE HEAT TROUGH IS OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 22N90W TO 15N93W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH SOUTHERN PORTION OF ITS AXIS
EXTENDING OVER SE GULF WATERS FROM 26N82W TO 25N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH EXTENDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM
25N TO 30N. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM
29N86W TO 25N86W ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. HAZE AND FOG IS ALSO BEING
REPORTED IN THE NW GULF N OF 27 W OF 90W. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW
BASIN...RESULTING IN NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 73W AND 79 WITH SEAS RANGING UP TO 9 FT.
ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF OF 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT DOMINATE.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW
BASIN...WHICH ALONG WITH TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND ADJACENT
WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. FAIR
WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW ISLAND
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND
ADJACENT WATERS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND
AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THUS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH
WED MORNING BEING ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 27N60W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO
22N61W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
22N TO 31N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE
ITCZ. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 34W AND
53W. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE SW N ATLC DURING THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 270501
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico are associated with a broad area of low
pressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by late this week while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

A nearly stationary area of low pressure located about 1500 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California continues to
produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms to the east
and northeast of the center.  Environmental conditions are expected
to become less favorable over the next day or so, and significant
development of this system is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 270501
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico are associated with a broad area of low
pressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by late this week while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

A nearly stationary area of low pressure located about 1500 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California continues to
produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms to the east
and northeast of the center.  Environmental conditions are expected
to become less favorable over the next day or so, and significant
development of this system is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 270501
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico are associated with a broad area of low
pressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by late this week while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

A nearly stationary area of low pressure located about 1500 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California continues to
produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms to the east
and northeast of the center.  Environmental conditions are expected
to become less favorable over the next day or so, and significant
development of this system is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 270501
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico are associated with a broad area of low
pressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by late this week while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

A nearly stationary area of low pressure located about 1500 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California continues to
produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms to the east
and northeast of the center.  Environmental conditions are expected
to become less favorable over the next day or so, and significant
development of this system is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270228
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES AND LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N TO 11N ALONG 94W MOVING W AT 10-
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM NE OF A LINE FROM 03N86W TO 07N95W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 94W AND 100W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N TO 14N ALONG 106W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
AXIS TO 110W...AND ALSO FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 110W AND 114W.

A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 08.5N102W AND IS MOVING W
AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 300 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. WINDS NEAR THE
BROAD LOW ARE MAINLY FRESH OR LESS HOWEVER AN AREA OF 8-9 FT
SEAS IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL IS WITHIN 300 NM IN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH 10N110W BY 24
HOURS THEN WILL DECREASE IN SPEED SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR
12N112W BY 48 HOURS WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 10N118W AND IS MOVING W
AROUND 5-10 KT. A TROUGH IS ACCOMPANYING THIS LOW EXTENDING FROM
13N118W TO THE LOW TO 07N119W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 120W AND 122W...AND ALSO FROM 01N TO 04N
BETWEEN 116W AND 125W. THE PRES GRADIENT ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH WINDS ALONG
WITH AN AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 121W AND
125W BY LATE WED NIGHT AS IT REACHES 09N123W...THEN FROM 11N TO
14N BETWEEN 125W AND 129W AS IT REACHES 09N125W BY THU EVENING.
NO DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 12.5N131W AND IS NEARLY
STATIONARY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM IN
THE E QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THE PRES GRADIENT ON THE NW SIDE OF
THE LOW IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY FRESH WINDS WHILE AN
AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS IN MIXED SWELL IS WITHIN 240 NM IN THE NW
QUADRANT. THE LOW WILL REACH NEAR 11N134W BY 24 HOURS...THEN TO
NEAR 10.5N136W BY 48 HOURS WITH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ ARE CURRENTLY NOT NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...1020 MB HIGH PRES IS NEAR 29N127W
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE TO NEAR 20N111W. A
WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS TO THE W EXTENDING FROM NEAR
30N133W TO 23N140W. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER DATA
INDICATE MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 4-7 FT
SEAS N OF 20N W OF 110W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT W DURING
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTS WESTWARD
REACHING 27N132W BY 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS AREA.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN JUST ENOUGH BY WED
NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF EPISODE OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WHICH WILL DIMINISH BY THU AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...SEAS
WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD TO 8 FT BY SUNRISE THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E FLOW IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH 48 HOURS
WITH THE AIDE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...WITH SEAS BRIEFLY
BUILDING TO 8 FT DURING EACH EVENT.

$$
LEWITSKY


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270228
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES AND LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N TO 11N ALONG 94W MOVING W AT 10-
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM NE OF A LINE FROM 03N86W TO 07N95W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 94W AND 100W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N TO 14N ALONG 106W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
AXIS TO 110W...AND ALSO FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 110W AND 114W.

A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 08.5N102W AND IS MOVING W
AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 300 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. WINDS NEAR THE
BROAD LOW ARE MAINLY FRESH OR LESS HOWEVER AN AREA OF 8-9 FT
SEAS IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL IS WITHIN 300 NM IN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH 10N110W BY 24
HOURS THEN WILL DECREASE IN SPEED SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR
12N112W BY 48 HOURS WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 10N118W AND IS MOVING W
AROUND 5-10 KT. A TROUGH IS ACCOMPANYING THIS LOW EXTENDING FROM
13N118W TO THE LOW TO 07N119W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 120W AND 122W...AND ALSO FROM 01N TO 04N
BETWEEN 116W AND 125W. THE PRES GRADIENT ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH WINDS ALONG
WITH AN AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 121W AND
125W BY LATE WED NIGHT AS IT REACHES 09N123W...THEN FROM 11N TO
14N BETWEEN 125W AND 129W AS IT REACHES 09N125W BY THU EVENING.
NO DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 12.5N131W AND IS NEARLY
STATIONARY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM IN
THE E QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THE PRES GRADIENT ON THE NW SIDE OF
THE LOW IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY FRESH WINDS WHILE AN
AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS IN MIXED SWELL IS WITHIN 240 NM IN THE NW
QUADRANT. THE LOW WILL REACH NEAR 11N134W BY 24 HOURS...THEN TO
NEAR 10.5N136W BY 48 HOURS WITH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ ARE CURRENTLY NOT NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...1020 MB HIGH PRES IS NEAR 29N127W
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE TO NEAR 20N111W. A
WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS TO THE W EXTENDING FROM NEAR
30N133W TO 23N140W. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER DATA
INDICATE MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 4-7 FT
SEAS N OF 20N W OF 110W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT W DURING
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTS WESTWARD
REACHING 27N132W BY 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS AREA.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN JUST ENOUGH BY WED
NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF EPISODE OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WHICH WILL DIMINISH BY THU AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...SEAS
WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD TO 8 FT BY SUNRISE THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E FLOW IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH 48 HOURS
WITH THE AIDE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...WITH SEAS BRIEFLY
BUILDING TO 8 FT DURING EACH EVENT.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXNT20 KNHC 270004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W FROM 12N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NEARBY ITCZ ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 12N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 47W AND
57W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 7N18W AND 6N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N21W TO
6N26W AND 3N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
INLAND IN AFRICA...FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 9W AND 13W. ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 2N TO 7N FROM 34W EASTWARD...AND FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 34W AND 57W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A
SQUALL LINE...THAT IS RUNNING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN-FLOW
SURFACE WINDS ARE COMMON ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...HAZE AND VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 3 TO 5
MILES ARE BEING REPORTED
AT...KBBF...KBQX...KHHV...KVAF...KGUL... AND KHQI.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...SCATTERED
TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TEXAS FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. FAIR SKIES ARE IN
THE LOUISIANA COASTAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN CRESTVIEW AND MARY ESTHER IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND IN APALACHICOLA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE IN
TALLAHASSEE...AND IN THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED FROM NAPLES
TO PUNTA GORDA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE WIND FLOW PATTERN THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA
CONSISTS OF...MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERNMOST
SECTIONS...BECOMING WESTERLY THE REST OF THE WAY ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS...BEYOND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 17N NORTHWARD BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
26/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.15 IN ST.
THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS REACHING
HISPANIOLA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE OF THE ISLAND.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EVERYWHERE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. HISPANIOLA IS AT THE EDGE
OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 28N59W
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR HAITI...SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE. FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA.
LIGHT RAIN IS BEING OBSERVED IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN SANTIAGO. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM PUERTO RICO TO HISPANIOLA TO CENTRAL CUBA FOR THE
FIRST 6 HOURS. NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA
FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS...WITH AN HISPANIOLA-TO-
NORTHERN BAHAMAS RIDGE THE WIND FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. THE WIND FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA
TROUGH...FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A PUERTO RICO-TO-CUBA-TO-FLORIDA
RIDGE...FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. AN EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
ISLANDS-TO- PUERTO RICO-TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE WILL BRING WEST-TO-
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE SECOND SET OF 24
HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 28N59W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
15N NORTHWARD FROM 45W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N13W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N13W
TO 29N24W...BEYOND 32N34W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE AREA THAT
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 45W EASTWARD
INTO THE AREA OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND
THE 31N13W-TO-32N34W TROUGH. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N55W TO 26N57W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
26N57W TO 23N61W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES FROM 23N61W TO 23N65W
TO 27N75W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN
51W AND 61W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 30N
BETWEEN 61W AND 77W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS
0.15 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 270004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W FROM 12N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NEARBY ITCZ ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 12N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 47W AND
57W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 7N18W AND 6N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N21W TO
6N26W AND 3N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
INLAND IN AFRICA...FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 9W AND 13W. ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 2N TO 7N FROM 34W EASTWARD...AND FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 34W AND 57W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A
SQUALL LINE...THAT IS RUNNING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN-FLOW
SURFACE WINDS ARE COMMON ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...HAZE AND VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 3 TO 5
MILES ARE BEING REPORTED
AT...KBBF...KBQX...KHHV...KVAF...KGUL... AND KHQI.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...SCATTERED
TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TEXAS FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. FAIR SKIES ARE IN
THE LOUISIANA COASTAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN CRESTVIEW AND MARY ESTHER IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND IN APALACHICOLA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE IN
TALLAHASSEE...AND IN THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED FROM NAPLES
TO PUNTA GORDA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE WIND FLOW PATTERN THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA
CONSISTS OF...MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERNMOST
SECTIONS...BECOMING WESTERLY THE REST OF THE WAY ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS...BEYOND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 17N NORTHWARD BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
26/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.15 IN ST.
THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS REACHING
HISPANIOLA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE OF THE ISLAND.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EVERYWHERE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. HISPANIOLA IS AT THE EDGE
OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 28N59W
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR HAITI...SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE. FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA.
LIGHT RAIN IS BEING OBSERVED IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN SANTIAGO. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM PUERTO RICO TO HISPANIOLA TO CENTRAL CUBA FOR THE
FIRST 6 HOURS. NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA
FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS...WITH AN HISPANIOLA-TO-
NORTHERN BAHAMAS RIDGE THE WIND FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. THE WIND FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA
TROUGH...FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A PUERTO RICO-TO-CUBA-TO-FLORIDA
RIDGE...FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. AN EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
ISLANDS-TO- PUERTO RICO-TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE WILL BRING WEST-TO-
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE SECOND SET OF 24
HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 28N59W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
15N NORTHWARD FROM 45W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N13W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N13W
TO 29N24W...BEYOND 32N34W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE AREA THAT
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 45W EASTWARD
INTO THE AREA OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND
THE 31N13W-TO-32N34W TROUGH. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N55W TO 26N57W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
26N57W TO 23N61W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES FROM 23N61W TO 23N65W
TO 27N75W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN
51W AND 61W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 30N
BETWEEN 61W AND 77W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS
0.15 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 270004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W FROM 12N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NEARBY ITCZ ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 12N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 47W AND
57W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 7N18W AND 6N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N21W TO
6N26W AND 3N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
INLAND IN AFRICA...FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 9W AND 13W. ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 2N TO 7N FROM 34W EASTWARD...AND FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 34W AND 57W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A
SQUALL LINE...THAT IS RUNNING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN-FLOW
SURFACE WINDS ARE COMMON ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...HAZE AND VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 3 TO 5
MILES ARE BEING REPORTED
AT...KBBF...KBQX...KHHV...KVAF...KGUL... AND KHQI.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...SCATTERED
TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TEXAS FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. FAIR SKIES ARE IN
THE LOUISIANA COASTAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN CRESTVIEW AND MARY ESTHER IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND IN APALACHICOLA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE IN
TALLAHASSEE...AND IN THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED FROM NAPLES
TO PUNTA GORDA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE WIND FLOW PATTERN THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA
CONSISTS OF...MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERNMOST
SECTIONS...BECOMING WESTERLY THE REST OF THE WAY ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS...BEYOND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 17N NORTHWARD BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
26/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.15 IN ST.
THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS REACHING
HISPANIOLA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE OF THE ISLAND.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EVERYWHERE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. HISPANIOLA IS AT THE EDGE
OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 28N59W
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR HAITI...SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE. FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA.
LIGHT RAIN IS BEING OBSERVED IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN SANTIAGO. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM PUERTO RICO TO HISPANIOLA TO CENTRAL CUBA FOR THE
FIRST 6 HOURS. NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA
FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS...WITH AN HISPANIOLA-TO-
NORTHERN BAHAMAS RIDGE THE WIND FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. THE WIND FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA
TROUGH...FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A PUERTO RICO-TO-CUBA-TO-FLORIDA
RIDGE...FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. AN EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
ISLANDS-TO- PUERTO RICO-TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE WILL BRING WEST-TO-
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE SECOND SET OF 24
HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 28N59W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
15N NORTHWARD FROM 45W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N13W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N13W
TO 29N24W...BEYOND 32N34W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE AREA THAT
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 45W EASTWARD
INTO THE AREA OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND
THE 31N13W-TO-32N34W TROUGH. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N55W TO 26N57W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
26N57W TO 23N61W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES FROM 23N61W TO 23N65W
TO 27N75W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN
51W AND 61W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 30N
BETWEEN 61W AND 77W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS
0.15 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 262330
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico are associated with a broad area of low
pressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

A nearly-stationary area of low pressure located about 1500 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California continues to
produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms to the east of
the circulation center.  Environmental conditions are expected to
become less favorable over the next day or so, and significant
development of this system is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 262330
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico are associated with a broad area of low
pressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

A nearly-stationary area of low pressure located about 1500 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California continues to
produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms to the east of
the circulation center.  Environmental conditions are expected to
become less favorable over the next day or so, and significant
development of this system is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 262330
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico are associated with a broad area of low
pressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

A nearly-stationary area of low pressure located about 1500 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California continues to
produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms to the east of
the circulation center.  Environmental conditions are expected to
become less favorable over the next day or so, and significant
development of this system is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 262330
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico are associated with a broad area of low
pressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

A nearly-stationary area of low pressure located about 1500 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California continues to
produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms to the east of
the circulation center.  Environmental conditions are expected to
become less favorable over the next day or so, and significant
development of this system is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262132
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAY 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES AND LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N TO 11N ALONG 93W MOVING W AT 10-
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 240 NM NE OF A LINE FROM 04N87W TO 09N93W...AND ALSO FROM
03N TO 10N W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE TO 98W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N TO 14N ALONG 107W MOVING W AT
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN
104W AND 110W.

A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 08N102W AND IS MOVING W
AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 240 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. WINDS NEAR THE
BROAD LOW ARE MAINLY FRESH OR LESS HOWEVER AN AREA OF 8-9 FT
SEAS IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL IS WITHIN 300 NM IN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH 10N109W BY 24
HOURS THEN WILL DECREASE IN SPEED SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR
11N112W BY 48 HOURS WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 10N119W MOVING W AROUND 5-10
KT. A TROUGH IS ACCOMPANYING THIS LOW EXTENDING FROM 13N118W TO
LOW TO 06N119W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 05N
BETWEEN 115W AND 124W. THE PRES GRADIENT ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH WINDS ALONG
WITH AN AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 123W AND
128W BY 48 HOURS AS IT REACHES NEAR 09N124W. NO DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 12.5N131W MOVING WSW AROUND
10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
12N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 127W AND 131W. THE PRES GRADIENT ON THE NW
SIDE OF THE LOW IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY FRESH WINDS
WHILE AN AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS IN MIXED SWELL IS WITHIN 210 NM IN
THE NW QUADRANT. THE LOW WILL REACH NEAR 11N133W BY 24
HOURS...THEN TO NEAR 10.5N136W BY 48 HOURS WITH SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ ARE CURRENTLY NOT NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...1020 MB HIGH PRES IS NEAR 29N128W
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE TO NEAR 18N105W. A
WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS TO THE W EXTENDING FROM NEAR
30N133W TO 23N140W. SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER DATA INDICATE
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS N
OF 20N W OF 110W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT W DURING THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTS WESTWARD
REACHING 27N132W BY 48 HOURS WHILE BECOMING 1022 MB WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS AREA.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN JUST ENOUGH BY WED
NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF EPISODE OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WHICH WILL DIMINISH BY THU AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...SEAS
WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD TO 8 FT BY SUNRISE THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E FLOW IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH 48 HOURS
WITH THE AIDE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...WITH SEAS BRIEFLY
BUILDING TO 8 FT DURING EACH EVENT.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262132
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAY 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES AND LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N TO 11N ALONG 93W MOVING W AT 10-
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 240 NM NE OF A LINE FROM 04N87W TO 09N93W...AND ALSO FROM
03N TO 10N W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE TO 98W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N TO 14N ALONG 107W MOVING W AT
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN
104W AND 110W.

A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 08N102W AND IS MOVING W
AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 240 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. WINDS NEAR THE
BROAD LOW ARE MAINLY FRESH OR LESS HOWEVER AN AREA OF 8-9 FT
SEAS IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL IS WITHIN 300 NM IN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH 10N109W BY 24
HOURS THEN WILL DECREASE IN SPEED SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR
11N112W BY 48 HOURS WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 10N119W MOVING W AROUND 5-10
KT. A TROUGH IS ACCOMPANYING THIS LOW EXTENDING FROM 13N118W TO
LOW TO 06N119W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 05N
BETWEEN 115W AND 124W. THE PRES GRADIENT ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH WINDS ALONG
WITH AN AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 123W AND
128W BY 48 HOURS AS IT REACHES NEAR 09N124W. NO DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 12.5N131W MOVING WSW AROUND
10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
12N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 127W AND 131W. THE PRES GRADIENT ON THE NW
SIDE OF THE LOW IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY FRESH WINDS
WHILE AN AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS IN MIXED SWELL IS WITHIN 210 NM IN
THE NW QUADRANT. THE LOW WILL REACH NEAR 11N133W BY 24
HOURS...THEN TO NEAR 10.5N136W BY 48 HOURS WITH SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ ARE CURRENTLY NOT NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...1020 MB HIGH PRES IS NEAR 29N128W
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE TO NEAR 18N105W. A
WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS TO THE W EXTENDING FROM NEAR
30N133W TO 23N140W. SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER DATA INDICATE
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS N
OF 20N W OF 110W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT W DURING THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTS WESTWARD
REACHING 27N132W BY 48 HOURS WHILE BECOMING 1022 MB WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS AREA.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN JUST ENOUGH BY WED
NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF EPISODE OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WHICH WILL DIMINISH BY THU AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...SEAS
WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD TO 8 FT BY SUNRISE THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E FLOW IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH 48 HOURS
WITH THE AIDE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...WITH SEAS BRIEFLY
BUILDING TO 8 FT DURING EACH EVENT.

$$
LEWITSKY


000
AXNT20 KNHC 261735
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM 01N TO 12N WITH AXIS NEAR
45W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE
AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 13N
BETWEEN 35W AND 56W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 06N20W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH 06N30W TO 03N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS FROM
13W TO 29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUPPORTING A
SQUALL LINE WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF THAT AS OF 1600 UTC EXTENDED FROM 30N87W TO 28N88W TO
27N92W. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST
OF THE LINE TO THE FLORIDA COAST NORTH OF 26N. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF FROM 23N94W TO 18N96W. NO
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. ASIDE FROM WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE...EAST TO SE WINDS OF AROUND 15
KT COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THE SQUALL LINE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE IS
CENTERED EAST OF FLORIDA. AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE EXISTS BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES FROM CENTRAL CUBA AND OVER A PORTION OF THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 75W AND 85W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 12N
BETWEEN 79W AND 84W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN A SURFACE LOW OVER COLOMBIA AND A DEPARTING
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO
25 KT COVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE ISLAND
SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
ISLAND TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC
SUPPORTED BY A SURFACE LOW AND DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC. THIS FEATURE IS NOT DEPICTED ON THE 1200 UTC MAP AND WILL
LIKELY BE ADDED FOR THE 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE FRONT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N59W WITH A
SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS LOW NOW EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
NEAR 28N58W. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE INCLUDED ON THE
1800 UTC ANALYSIS AS WELL. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
COMPLEX AREA OF WEATHER EXTENDS FROM 31N55W TO 21N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONNECTION IS FROM 21N TO 31N BETWEEN 51W AND 60W. A
1038 MB LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 46N27W DOMINATES
THE EASTERN NORTHERN ATLC. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WITH
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 261735
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM 01N TO 12N WITH AXIS NEAR
45W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE
AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 13N
BETWEEN 35W AND 56W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 06N20W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH 06N30W TO 03N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS FROM
13W TO 29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUPPORTING A
SQUALL LINE WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF THAT AS OF 1600 UTC EXTENDED FROM 30N87W TO 28N88W TO
27N92W. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST
OF THE LINE TO THE FLORIDA COAST NORTH OF 26N. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF FROM 23N94W TO 18N96W. NO
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. ASIDE FROM WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE...EAST TO SE WINDS OF AROUND 15
KT COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THE SQUALL LINE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE IS
CENTERED EAST OF FLORIDA. AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE EXISTS BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES FROM CENTRAL CUBA AND OVER A PORTION OF THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 75W AND 85W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 12N
BETWEEN 79W AND 84W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN A SURFACE LOW OVER COLOMBIA AND A DEPARTING
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO
25 KT COVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE ISLAND
SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
ISLAND TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC
SUPPORTED BY A SURFACE LOW AND DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC. THIS FEATURE IS NOT DEPICTED ON THE 1200 UTC MAP AND WILL
LIKELY BE ADDED FOR THE 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE FRONT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N59W WITH A
SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS LOW NOW EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
NEAR 28N58W. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE INCLUDED ON THE
1800 UTC ANALYSIS AS WELL. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
COMPLEX AREA OF WEATHER EXTENDS FROM 31N55W TO 21N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONNECTION IS FROM 21N TO 31N BETWEEN 51W AND 60W. A
1038 MB LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 46N27W DOMINATES
THE EASTERN NORTHERN ATLC. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WITH
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261723
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico are associated with a trough of low
pressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week while
the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

A nearly-stationary area of low pressure located about 1500 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California continues to
produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms well east of
the circulation center.  Upper-level winds are expected to become
less favorable today and significant development of this system is
not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown/Roberts


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261723
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico are associated with a trough of low
pressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week while
the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

A nearly-stationary area of low pressure located about 1500 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California continues to
produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms well east of
the circulation center.  Upper-level winds are expected to become
less favorable today and significant development of this system is
not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown/Roberts


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261723
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico are associated with a trough of low
pressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week while
the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

A nearly-stationary area of low pressure located about 1500 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California continues to
produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms well east of
the circulation center.  Upper-level winds are expected to become
less favorable today and significant development of this system is
not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown/Roberts


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261723
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico are associated with a trough of low
pressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week while
the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

A nearly-stationary area of low pressure located about 1500 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California continues to
produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms well east of
the circulation center.  Upper-level winds are expected to become
less favorable today and significant development of this system is
not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown/Roberts


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261556
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAY 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N-11N ALONG 91W MOVING W 10-15
KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE
FROM 03N-07N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM OF WAVE FROM 07N TO 11N.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N-14N ALONG 105W MOVING W AT 15
KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W OF WAVE FROM
03N-10N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM W OF WAVE FROM 10N-14N...AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 97W
AND 105W. LOW PRES IS FORECAST DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROPICAL WAVE
AND REACH NEAR 10N108W AT 1007 MB ON WED NIGHT. THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW AROUND MID WEEK
WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT BEYOND 48
HOURS.

A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 10N117W AND MOVING W ABOUT
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
BETWEEN 120-240 NM OF THE LOW IN THE W QUADRANT. THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 10N120W BY EARLY WED...AND TO NEAR
10N123W BY LATE THU WHILE WEAKENING.

A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 12N131W MOVING SLOWLY
WESTWARD. THE LOW REMAINS ILL-DEFINED AS FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS IT DISLODGED OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION AND UNDERNEATH
THIN HIGH CLOUDS. THE EARLIER DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS OCCURRING
WELL TO ITS E...HAS WARMED DURING THE MORNING. ONLY SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE SEEN FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 125W-129W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ ARE NOT
IDENTIFIABLE.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 32N130W...AND QUICKLY MOVING
EASTWARD WITH TIME WHILE TRAILING AN UPPER TROUGH S TO BASE NEAR
19N129W. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N135W SW TO
21N140W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO
BE CENTERED NEAR 15N115W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WSW TO 10N130W
AND A RIDGE EXTENDING ESE TO HONDURAS. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVES AS
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONE
N TO NEAR 32N115W. UPPER MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS DERIVED FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR
12N131W...HAS BEEN CAUGHT UP IN THE SW UPPER FLOW OVER THE NW
PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND IS BEING ADVECTED NEWD TOWARDS
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WHERE IT THINS OUT IN DRY AIR. THIS DRY
IS DUE TO EXTENSIVE STRONG SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING FROM 23N-30N E
OF 126W...AND ALSO FROM 17N-30N W OF 126W. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING EASTWARD RAPIDLY ARE NOTED N OF 30N. AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE OVER COLOMBIA RIDGES WNW TO A CREST NEAR
10N87W...AND IS HELPING TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE SE PART OF THE AREA
FROM 04N-10N E OF 91W. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND SOME OF THE MOISTURE IS
SPREADING S ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 80-120W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...CURRENTLY ENE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN AT THIS
RANGE THROUGH THU.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261556
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAY 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N-11N ALONG 91W MOVING W 10-15
KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE
FROM 03N-07N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM OF WAVE FROM 07N TO 11N.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N-14N ALONG 105W MOVING W AT 15
KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W OF WAVE FROM
03N-10N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM W OF WAVE FROM 10N-14N...AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 97W
AND 105W. LOW PRES IS FORECAST DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROPICAL WAVE
AND REACH NEAR 10N108W AT 1007 MB ON WED NIGHT. THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW AROUND MID WEEK
WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT BEYOND 48
HOURS.

A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 10N117W AND MOVING W ABOUT
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
BETWEEN 120-240 NM OF THE LOW IN THE W QUADRANT. THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 10N120W BY EARLY WED...AND TO NEAR
10N123W BY LATE THU WHILE WEAKENING.

A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 12N131W MOVING SLOWLY
WESTWARD. THE LOW REMAINS ILL-DEFINED AS FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS IT DISLODGED OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION AND UNDERNEATH
THIN HIGH CLOUDS. THE EARLIER DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS OCCURRING
WELL TO ITS E...HAS WARMED DURING THE MORNING. ONLY SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE SEEN FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 125W-129W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ ARE NOT
IDENTIFIABLE.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 32N130W...AND QUICKLY MOVING
EASTWARD WITH TIME WHILE TRAILING AN UPPER TROUGH S TO BASE NEAR
19N129W. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N135W SW TO
21N140W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO
BE CENTERED NEAR 15N115W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WSW TO 10N130W
AND A RIDGE EXTENDING ESE TO HONDURAS. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVES AS
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONE
N TO NEAR 32N115W. UPPER MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS DERIVED FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR
12N131W...HAS BEEN CAUGHT UP IN THE SW UPPER FLOW OVER THE NW
PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND IS BEING ADVECTED NEWD TOWARDS
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WHERE IT THINS OUT IN DRY AIR. THIS DRY
IS DUE TO EXTENSIVE STRONG SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING FROM 23N-30N E
OF 126W...AND ALSO FROM 17N-30N W OF 126W. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING EASTWARD RAPIDLY ARE NOTED N OF 30N. AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE OVER COLOMBIA RIDGES WNW TO A CREST NEAR
10N87W...AND IS HELPING TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE SE PART OF THE AREA
FROM 04N-10N E OF 91W. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND SOME OF THE MOISTURE IS
SPREADING S ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 80-120W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...CURRENTLY ENE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN AT THIS
RANGE THROUGH THU.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261556
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAY 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N-11N ALONG 91W MOVING W 10-15
KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE
FROM 03N-07N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM OF WAVE FROM 07N TO 11N.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N-14N ALONG 105W MOVING W AT 15
KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W OF WAVE FROM
03N-10N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM W OF WAVE FROM 10N-14N...AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 97W
AND 105W. LOW PRES IS FORECAST DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROPICAL WAVE
AND REACH NEAR 10N108W AT 1007 MB ON WED NIGHT. THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW AROUND MID WEEK
WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT BEYOND 48
HOURS.

A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 10N117W AND MOVING W ABOUT
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
BETWEEN 120-240 NM OF THE LOW IN THE W QUADRANT. THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 10N120W BY EARLY WED...AND TO NEAR
10N123W BY LATE THU WHILE WEAKENING.

A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 12N131W MOVING SLOWLY
WESTWARD. THE LOW REMAINS ILL-DEFINED AS FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS IT DISLODGED OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION AND UNDERNEATH
THIN HIGH CLOUDS. THE EARLIER DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS OCCURRING
WELL TO ITS E...HAS WARMED DURING THE MORNING. ONLY SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE SEEN FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 125W-129W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ ARE NOT
IDENTIFIABLE.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 32N130W...AND QUICKLY MOVING
EASTWARD WITH TIME WHILE TRAILING AN UPPER TROUGH S TO BASE NEAR
19N129W. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N135W SW TO
21N140W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO
BE CENTERED NEAR 15N115W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WSW TO 10N130W
AND A RIDGE EXTENDING ESE TO HONDURAS. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVES AS
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONE
N TO NEAR 32N115W. UPPER MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS DERIVED FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR
12N131W...HAS BEEN CAUGHT UP IN THE SW UPPER FLOW OVER THE NW
PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND IS BEING ADVECTED NEWD TOWARDS
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WHERE IT THINS OUT IN DRY AIR. THIS DRY
IS DUE TO EXTENSIVE STRONG SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING FROM 23N-30N E
OF 126W...AND ALSO FROM 17N-30N W OF 126W. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING EASTWARD RAPIDLY ARE NOTED N OF 30N. AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE OVER COLOMBIA RIDGES WNW TO A CREST NEAR
10N87W...AND IS HELPING TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE SE PART OF THE AREA
FROM 04N-10N E OF 91W. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND SOME OF THE MOISTURE IS
SPREADING S ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 80-120W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...CURRENTLY ENE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN AT THIS
RANGE THROUGH THU.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261556
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAY 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N-11N ALONG 91W MOVING W 10-15
KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE
FROM 03N-07N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM OF WAVE FROM 07N TO 11N.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N-14N ALONG 105W MOVING W AT 15
KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W OF WAVE FROM
03N-10N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM W OF WAVE FROM 10N-14N...AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 97W
AND 105W. LOW PRES IS FORECAST DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROPICAL WAVE
AND REACH NEAR 10N108W AT 1007 MB ON WED NIGHT. THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW AROUND MID WEEK
WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT BEYOND 48
HOURS.

A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 10N117W AND MOVING W ABOUT
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
BETWEEN 120-240 NM OF THE LOW IN THE W QUADRANT. THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 10N120W BY EARLY WED...AND TO NEAR
10N123W BY LATE THU WHILE WEAKENING.

A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 12N131W MOVING SLOWLY
WESTWARD. THE LOW REMAINS ILL-DEFINED AS FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS IT DISLODGED OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION AND UNDERNEATH
THIN HIGH CLOUDS. THE EARLIER DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS OCCURRING
WELL TO ITS E...HAS WARMED DURING THE MORNING. ONLY SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE SEEN FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 125W-129W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ ARE NOT
IDENTIFIABLE.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 32N130W...AND QUICKLY MOVING
EASTWARD WITH TIME WHILE TRAILING AN UPPER TROUGH S TO BASE NEAR
19N129W. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N135W SW TO
21N140W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO
BE CENTERED NEAR 15N115W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WSW TO 10N130W
AND A RIDGE EXTENDING ESE TO HONDURAS. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVES AS
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONE
N TO NEAR 32N115W. UPPER MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS DERIVED FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR
12N131W...HAS BEEN CAUGHT UP IN THE SW UPPER FLOW OVER THE NW
PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND IS BEING ADVECTED NEWD TOWARDS
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WHERE IT THINS OUT IN DRY AIR. THIS DRY
IS DUE TO EXTENSIVE STRONG SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING FROM 23N-30N E
OF 126W...AND ALSO FROM 17N-30N W OF 126W. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING EASTWARD RAPIDLY ARE NOTED N OF 30N. AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE OVER COLOMBIA RIDGES WNW TO A CREST NEAR
10N87W...AND IS HELPING TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE SE PART OF THE AREA
FROM 04N-10N E OF 91W. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND SOME OF THE MOISTURE IS
SPREADING S ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 80-120W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...CURRENTLY ENE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN AT THIS
RANGE THROUGH THU.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261138
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico are associated with a trough of low
pressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week while
the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

A nearly-stationary area of low pressure located about 1500 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California is producing
disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms well east of the
circulation center.  Upper-level winds are expected to become less
favorable today and significant development of this system is not
expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown/Roberts


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261138
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico are associated with a trough of low
pressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week while
the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

A nearly-stationary area of low pressure located about 1500 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California is producing
disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms well east of the
circulation center.  Upper-level winds are expected to become less
favorable today and significant development of this system is not
expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown/Roberts


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261138
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico are associated with a trough of low
pressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week while
the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

A nearly-stationary area of low pressure located about 1500 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California is producing
disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms well east of the
circulation center.  Upper-level winds are expected to become less
favorable today and significant development of this system is not
expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown/Roberts



000
AXNT20 KNHC 261015
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 11N WITH
AXIS NEAR 44W...MOVING W AT 13 TO 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW A DECREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE
IMMEDIATE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...THUS RESULTING IN A DECREASE OF
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN REGIONS OF
THE WAVE WHERE METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOW DUST AND DRY SAHARAN AIR.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM AHEAD OF THE WAVE
AXIS S OF 8N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM E OF
IT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N12W TO 04N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 04N16W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04N27W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N40W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE ITCZ W OF 33W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. AND MEXICO
EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A
CENTER OF 1031 MB OVER THE NW ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A
RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN
GULF. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE COVERS THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SW
N ATLC WATERS AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE N-NW GULF COASTLINE ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS SE LOUISIANA AND ADJACENT
WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 90W AND 93W. HAZE AND FOG IS ALSO BEING
REPORTED IN THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 84W. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT
THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW
BASIN...RESULTING IN NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 9 FT.
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 81W WINDS ARE 20 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT IN E SWELL. OTHERWISE...S OF 18N W OF
85W E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT DOMINATE WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW
BASIN...WHICH ALONG WITH UPPER TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER CUBA COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTHERN WINDWARD
PASSAGE. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HAITI...THE MONA PASSAGE...
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE
BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IS OVER HAITI ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
THIS REGION OF THE ISLAND. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE
REMAINDER ISLAND AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH WED MORNING BEING ENHANCED BY
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING AND SUPPORTED BY MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 30N58W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N55W TO
23N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE N OF 23N
BETWEEN 50W AND 58W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ. SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE
SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 261015
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 11N WITH
AXIS NEAR 44W...MOVING W AT 13 TO 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW A DECREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE
IMMEDIATE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...THUS RESULTING IN A DECREASE OF
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN REGIONS OF
THE WAVE WHERE METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOW DUST AND DRY SAHARAN AIR.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM AHEAD OF THE WAVE
AXIS S OF 8N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM E OF
IT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N12W TO 04N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 04N16W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04N27W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N40W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE ITCZ W OF 33W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. AND MEXICO
EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A
CENTER OF 1031 MB OVER THE NW ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A
RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN
GULF. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE COVERS THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SW
N ATLC WATERS AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE N-NW GULF COASTLINE ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS SE LOUISIANA AND ADJACENT
WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 90W AND 93W. HAZE AND FOG IS ALSO BEING
REPORTED IN THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 84W. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT
THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW
BASIN...RESULTING IN NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 9 FT.
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 81W WINDS ARE 20 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT IN E SWELL. OTHERWISE...S OF 18N W OF
85W E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT DOMINATE WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW
BASIN...WHICH ALONG WITH UPPER TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER CUBA COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTHERN WINDWARD
PASSAGE. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HAITI...THE MONA PASSAGE...
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE
BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IS OVER HAITI ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
THIS REGION OF THE ISLAND. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE
REMAINDER ISLAND AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH WED MORNING BEING ENHANCED BY
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING AND SUPPORTED BY MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 30N58W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N55W TO
23N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE N OF 23N
BETWEEN 50W AND 58W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ. SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE
SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 261015
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 11N WITH
AXIS NEAR 44W...MOVING W AT 13 TO 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW A DECREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE
IMMEDIATE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...THUS RESULTING IN A DECREASE OF
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN REGIONS OF
THE WAVE WHERE METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOW DUST AND DRY SAHARAN AIR.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM AHEAD OF THE WAVE
AXIS S OF 8N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM E OF
IT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N12W TO 04N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 04N16W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04N27W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N40W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE ITCZ W OF 33W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. AND MEXICO
EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A
CENTER OF 1031 MB OVER THE NW ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A
RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN
GULF. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE COVERS THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SW
N ATLC WATERS AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE N-NW GULF COASTLINE ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS SE LOUISIANA AND ADJACENT
WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 90W AND 93W. HAZE AND FOG IS ALSO BEING
REPORTED IN THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 84W. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT
THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW
BASIN...RESULTING IN NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 9 FT.
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 81W WINDS ARE 20 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT IN E SWELL. OTHERWISE...S OF 18N W OF
85W E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT DOMINATE WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW
BASIN...WHICH ALONG WITH UPPER TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER CUBA COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTHERN WINDWARD
PASSAGE. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HAITI...THE MONA PASSAGE...
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE
BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IS OVER HAITI ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
THIS REGION OF THE ISLAND. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE
REMAINDER ISLAND AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH WED MORNING BEING ENHANCED BY
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING AND SUPPORTED BY MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 30N58W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N55W TO
23N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE N OF 23N
BETWEEN 50W AND 58W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ. SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE
SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 261015
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 11N WITH
AXIS NEAR 44W...MOVING W AT 13 TO 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW A DECREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE
IMMEDIATE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...THUS RESULTING IN A DECREASE OF
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN REGIONS OF
THE WAVE WHERE METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOW DUST AND DRY SAHARAN AIR.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM AHEAD OF THE WAVE
AXIS S OF 8N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM E OF
IT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N12W TO 04N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 04N16W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04N27W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N40W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE ITCZ W OF 33W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. AND MEXICO
EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A
CENTER OF 1031 MB OVER THE NW ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A
RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN
GULF. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE COVERS THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SW
N ATLC WATERS AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE N-NW GULF COASTLINE ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS SE LOUISIANA AND ADJACENT
WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 90W AND 93W. HAZE AND FOG IS ALSO BEING
REPORTED IN THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 84W. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT
THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW
BASIN...RESULTING IN NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 9 FT.
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 81W WINDS ARE 20 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT IN E SWELL. OTHERWISE...S OF 18N W OF
85W E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT DOMINATE WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW
BASIN...WHICH ALONG WITH UPPER TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER CUBA COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTHERN WINDWARD
PASSAGE. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HAITI...THE MONA PASSAGE...
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE
BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IS OVER HAITI ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
THIS REGION OF THE ISLAND. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE
REMAINDER ISLAND AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH WED MORNING BEING ENHANCED BY
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING AND SUPPORTED BY MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 30N58W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N55W TO
23N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE N OF 23N
BETWEEN 50W AND 58W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ. SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE
SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260945
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAY 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02-12N ALONG 91W AND HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM OF WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 02-15N ALONG 102W AND HAS
BEEN MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF WAVE...AND ELSEWHERE W OF
THE WAVE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N103W TO
02N118W. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROPICAL
WAVE AND REACH NEAR 10N108W AT 1007 MB ON WED NIGHT. THE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW AROUND
MID WEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK.

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 09.5N116W AND IS MOVING
W AT ABOUT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED WITHIN 240 NM OVER THE W QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THIS
LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY BY MID
WEEK.

A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 12.5N132W. LOW
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN AN AREA
OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION THAT IS
CURRENTLY OBSERVED WELL E OF THE LOW WITHIN 210 NM OF 12.5N127W.
THE LOW CENTERS RACE OFF TO THE W DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
DISSIPATE DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THIS CURRENT SURFACE LOW
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ON WED. ASSOCIATED WINDS REMAIN AT 15-
20 KT. COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT CURRENTLY OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM
OVER THE NW QUADRANT WILL CONTINUE N OF THE LOW...PRIMARILY DUE
TO LONG PERIOD SW SWELL.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 32N135W AND PROGRESSING NE WITH
TIME WHILE TRAILING AN UPPER TROUGH S TO BASE NEAR 19N131W. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY DISSIPATING FROM
32N136W TO 21N140W. ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHIFT ALONG THE FRONT HAS
DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT...SEAS OF 7-9 FT CONTINUE N OF 26N NEAR
THE FRONT PRIMARILY DUE TO MIXED SW AND NW SWELL. THESE SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT LATE TODAY.

UPPER ANTICYCLONES ARE CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 17N114W
AND NEAR 16N107W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING WSW TO 10N130W
AND A RIDGE EXTENDS SE TO NEAR 12N93W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVES AS
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS NW TO BEYOND
32N124W WITH UPPER MOISTURE SPREADING E AND SE ACROSS THE RIDGE
CREST AND OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER COLOMBIA RIDGES WNW TO A CREST NEAR
10N87W AND IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE SE TROPICAL
PORTION AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND SOME OF THE
MOISTURE IS SPREADING S ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 80-120W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...CURRENTLY ENE 20-25 KT WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...THEN EXPECT NOCTURNAL 15-20 KT
PULSES THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

$$
NELSON


000
AXNT20 KNHC 260603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N WITH
AXIS NEAR 43W...MOVING W AT 13 TO 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW A DECREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE
IMMEDIATE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...THUS RESULTING IN A DECREASE OF
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN REGIONS OF
THE WAVE WHERE METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOW DUST AND DRY SAHARAN AIR.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 320 NM AHEAD OF THE WAVE
AXIS...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 145 NM E OF IT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 06N15W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N16W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 05N27W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 06N41W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ E OF 40W. FOR CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. AND MEXICO
EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A
CENTER OF 1032 MB OVER THE NW ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A
RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN
GULF. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE COVERS THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SW
N ATLC WATERS AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE N-NW GULF COASTLINE ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
LOUISIANA SW TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS...EXTENDING WITHIN 20 NM
OFF THE COAST. HAZE AND FOG IS ALSO BEING REPORTED IN THE NW
GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA EXTENDING WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE
COAST. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW
BASIN...RESULTING IN WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11.5N TO 14.5N
BETWEEN 72W AND 78W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE
FROM 10.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 74W AND 81W WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS
WITH SEAS UP TO 10 FT IN E SWELL. OTHERWISE...S OF 18N W OF 85W
E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT DOMINATE WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. SSMI
TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW BASIN
THAT ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER CUBA COASTAL
WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL
WATERS OF COLOMBIA...HAITI...THE MONA PASSAGE...EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING
SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IS OVER HAITI ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
THIS REGION OF THE ISLAND. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE
REMAINDER ISLAND AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME
HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 30N58W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N52W TO
23N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 200
NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS N OF 24N. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DRIFT TOWARDS THE SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 260603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N WITH
AXIS NEAR 43W...MOVING W AT 13 TO 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW A DECREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE
IMMEDIATE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...THUS RESULTING IN A DECREASE OF
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN REGIONS OF
THE WAVE WHERE METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOW DUST AND DRY SAHARAN AIR.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 320 NM AHEAD OF THE WAVE
AXIS...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 145 NM E OF IT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 06N15W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N16W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 05N27W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 06N41W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ E OF 40W. FOR CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. AND MEXICO
EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A
CENTER OF 1032 MB OVER THE NW ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A
RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN
GULF. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE COVERS THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SW
N ATLC WATERS AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE N-NW GULF COASTLINE ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
LOUISIANA SW TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS...EXTENDING WITHIN 20 NM
OFF THE COAST. HAZE AND FOG IS ALSO BEING REPORTED IN THE NW
GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA EXTENDING WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE
COAST. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW
BASIN...RESULTING IN WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11.5N TO 14.5N
BETWEEN 72W AND 78W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE
FROM 10.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 74W AND 81W WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS
WITH SEAS UP TO 10 FT IN E SWELL. OTHERWISE...S OF 18N W OF 85W
E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT DOMINATE WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. SSMI
TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW BASIN
THAT ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER CUBA COASTAL
WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL
WATERS OF COLOMBIA...HAITI...THE MONA PASSAGE...EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING
SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IS OVER HAITI ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
THIS REGION OF THE ISLAND. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE
REMAINDER ISLAND AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME
HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 30N58W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N52W TO
23N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 200
NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS N OF 24N. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DRIFT TOWARDS THE SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 260500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico are associated with a trough of low
pressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form after mid-week while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

A nearly-stationary area of low pressure located about 1500 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California is producing
disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms well east of the
circulation center.  Significant development of this system
is not expected due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 260500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico are associated with a trough of low
pressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form after mid-week while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

A nearly-stationary area of low pressure located about 1500 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California is producing
disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms well east of the
circulation center.  Significant development of this system
is not expected due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260222
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAY 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0215 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 02N TO 11N ALONG ROUGHLY 89W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 05N TO
09N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 02N TO 14N ALONG ROUGHLY 101W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN
103W AND 110W. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 09N OR 10N OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW IS FORECAST AFTER WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT
IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL NEAR THE LOW PRES/WAVE S OF 10N UNDER
MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ HAVE BROKEN DOWN WITH LIGHT WINDS
FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHERE THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS
CLIMATOLOGICAL FOUND. ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL
WAVES...A TROUGH IS NOTED FROM 13N115W TO 08N117W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE TROUGH. A 1009 MB
LOW PRES AREA WAS NOTED NEAR 13N131W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 125W
AND 129W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REACHES FROM ROUGHLY 30N125W TO NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES JALISCO. RESIDENT TROUGHING FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA TO
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS FAIRLY WEAK. THIS IS
RESULTING IN GENERALLY MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE BAJA
COAST AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SW TO W WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT OFF THE BAJA COAST...DUE IN PART
TO LINGERING LONGER PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS WEST OF 100W. LOOKING
AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LOW PRES
FORMING SOUTH OF THE AREA NEAR 10N105W EARLY TUE THEN SLOWLY
DEVELOPING...POSSIBLY INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...LATE IN THE WEEK
AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE ISLAS REVILLAGIGEDO.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...
STRONG GAP WIND FLOW TO 25 KT IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN EXITING
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 88W. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT AND WILL BUILD TO 8
FT IN THE AREAS OF THE STRONG GAP WINDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE AS THE TROPICAL WAVES
SHIFT WESTWARD. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
101W TONIGHT OR EARLY TUE. WHILE ONLY MODERATE SW FLOW IS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THIS LOW THROUGH TUE...SEAS WILL BUILD IN
EXCESS OF 8 FT AS THE WINDS INCREASE INTO THE LOW DUE TO AN
ADDED COMPONENT OF SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL
START BY MID WEEK AS CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE LOW
PRES NEAR 109W TO DEVELOP FURTHER POSSIBLY INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE LOW WILL SHIFT WNW
PASSING TO THE NE OF CLIPPERTON ISLAND NEAR 10N109W THU THEN NW
OF THE AREA FRI.

ELSEWHERE...
CONVECTION NEAR A LOW PRES THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY NEAR 09N117W HAS
DISSIPATED AND SHIFT WEST OF THE LOW DUE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER
EASTERLY SHEAR SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE...LEAVING A WEAK EXPOSED
CENTER NEAR 10N115W. WESTERLY SHEAR IS ACTING ON A QUASI-
STATIONARY 1009 MB LOW PRES AREA NEAR 13N131W. THE CONVECTION
REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE...BUT REMAINS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE LOW ITSELF APPEARS TO BE MORE
DISORGANIZED THAN BEFORE AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH
THROUGH LATE TUE. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH...BUT
THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH TUE. RELATED SEAS
TO 9 FT WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY...BUT AN AREA OF WAVE HEIGHTS TO 8
FT ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER AN AREA FROM 13N TO 18N W OF 130W
IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. FARTHER NORTH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
REACHES FROM 30N128W TO 26N137W TO 22N140W. 20 TO 25 KT
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS NOTED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27N...ALONG
WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT THROUGH EARLY TUE.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260222
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAY 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0215 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 02N TO 11N ALONG ROUGHLY 89W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 05N TO
09N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 02N TO 14N ALONG ROUGHLY 101W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN
103W AND 110W. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 09N OR 10N OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW IS FORECAST AFTER WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT
IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL NEAR THE LOW PRES/WAVE S OF 10N UNDER
MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ HAVE BROKEN DOWN WITH LIGHT WINDS
FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHERE THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS
CLIMATOLOGICAL FOUND. ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL
WAVES...A TROUGH IS NOTED FROM 13N115W TO 08N117W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE TROUGH. A 1009 MB
LOW PRES AREA WAS NOTED NEAR 13N131W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 125W
AND 129W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REACHES FROM ROUGHLY 30N125W TO NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES JALISCO. RESIDENT TROUGHING FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA TO
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS FAIRLY WEAK. THIS IS
RESULTING IN GENERALLY MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE BAJA
COAST AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SW TO W WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT OFF THE BAJA COAST...DUE IN PART
TO LINGERING LONGER PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS WEST OF 100W. LOOKING
AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LOW PRES
FORMING SOUTH OF THE AREA NEAR 10N105W EARLY TUE THEN SLOWLY
DEVELOPING...POSSIBLY INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...LATE IN THE WEEK
AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE ISLAS REVILLAGIGEDO.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...
STRONG GAP WIND FLOW TO 25 KT IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN EXITING
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 88W. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT AND WILL BUILD TO 8
FT IN THE AREAS OF THE STRONG GAP WINDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE AS THE TROPICAL WAVES
SHIFT WESTWARD. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
101W TONIGHT OR EARLY TUE. WHILE ONLY MODERATE SW FLOW IS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THIS LOW THROUGH TUE...SEAS WILL BUILD IN
EXCESS OF 8 FT AS THE WINDS INCREASE INTO THE LOW DUE TO AN
ADDED COMPONENT OF SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL
START BY MID WEEK AS CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE LOW
PRES NEAR 109W TO DEVELOP FURTHER POSSIBLY INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE LOW WILL SHIFT WNW
PASSING TO THE NE OF CLIPPERTON ISLAND NEAR 10N109W THU THEN NW
OF THE AREA FRI.

ELSEWHERE...
CONVECTION NEAR A LOW PRES THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY NEAR 09N117W HAS
DISSIPATED AND SHIFT WEST OF THE LOW DUE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER
EASTERLY SHEAR SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE...LEAVING A WEAK EXPOSED
CENTER NEAR 10N115W. WESTERLY SHEAR IS ACTING ON A QUASI-
STATIONARY 1009 MB LOW PRES AREA NEAR 13N131W. THE CONVECTION
REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE...BUT REMAINS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE LOW ITSELF APPEARS TO BE MORE
DISORGANIZED THAN BEFORE AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH
THROUGH LATE TUE. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH...BUT
THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH TUE. RELATED SEAS
TO 9 FT WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY...BUT AN AREA OF WAVE HEIGHTS TO 8
FT ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER AN AREA FROM 13N TO 18N W OF 130W
IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. FARTHER NORTH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
REACHES FROM 30N128W TO 26N137W TO 22N140W. 20 TO 25 KT
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS NOTED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27N...ALONG
WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT THROUGH EARLY TUE.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 252333
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 10N42W TO
00N42W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI
TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE AT MIDDLE
TO LOWER LEVELS E OF THE AXIS. A DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WAVE FROM 00N-06N BETWEEN 37W-47W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 05N15W. FROM THAT POINT THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND EXTENDS TO 06N38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF BOTH AXES.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE HIGH PREVAILS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC EXTENDING ITS AXIS
SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REACHING THE EASTERN GULF TO
90W. A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE SE GULF ALONG
83W GENERATING A DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF ITS AXIS WHICH IN TURN IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WATERS E
OF 84W. LIGHT TO GENTLE SE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE SMALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED TO BE OVER THE
SW GULF ALSO REACHES THE NW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS CUBA...JAMAICA AND THEIR ADJACENT WATERS N OF 18N AND W
OF 75W. A BROAD SURFACE HIGH THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE NW
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND S REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. WITH
THIS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE
WINDS MAINLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-82W. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NE
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF
12N BETWEEN 75W-84W. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE HIGH THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC EXTENDS S
REACHING THE ISLAND AND THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS HAITI WHICH WILL DISSIPATE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED N OF OUR AREA PREVAILS ACROSS THE
NW ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TO THE E...A PAIR OF
SURFACE TROUGHS WERE ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE
FIRST EXTENDS FROM 27N59W TO 26N62W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE SECOND ONE IS FROM 30N52W TO
22N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF 26N BETWEEN
49W-59W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. EXPECT FOR THE
SURFACE TROUGHS TO LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 252333
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 10N42W TO
00N42W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI
TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE AT MIDDLE
TO LOWER LEVELS E OF THE AXIS. A DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WAVE FROM 00N-06N BETWEEN 37W-47W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 05N15W. FROM THAT POINT THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND EXTENDS TO 06N38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF BOTH AXES.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE HIGH PREVAILS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC EXTENDING ITS AXIS
SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REACHING THE EASTERN GULF TO
90W. A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE SE GULF ALONG
83W GENERATING A DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF ITS AXIS WHICH IN TURN IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WATERS E
OF 84W. LIGHT TO GENTLE SE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE SMALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED TO BE OVER THE
SW GULF ALSO REACHES THE NW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS CUBA...JAMAICA AND THEIR ADJACENT WATERS N OF 18N AND W
OF 75W. A BROAD SURFACE HIGH THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE NW
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND S REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. WITH
THIS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE
WINDS MAINLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-82W. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NE
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF
12N BETWEEN 75W-84W. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE HIGH THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC EXTENDS S
REACHING THE ISLAND AND THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS HAITI WHICH WILL DISSIPATE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED N OF OUR AREA PREVAILS ACROSS THE
NW ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TO THE E...A PAIR OF
SURFACE TROUGHS WERE ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE
FIRST EXTENDS FROM 27N59W TO 26N62W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE SECOND ONE IS FROM 30N52W TO
22N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF 26N BETWEEN
49W-59W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. EXPECT FOR THE
SURFACE TROUGHS TO LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 252333
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 10N42W TO
00N42W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI
TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE AT MIDDLE
TO LOWER LEVELS E OF THE AXIS. A DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WAVE FROM 00N-06N BETWEEN 37W-47W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 05N15W. FROM THAT POINT THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND EXTENDS TO 06N38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF BOTH AXES.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE HIGH PREVAILS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC EXTENDING ITS AXIS
SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REACHING THE EASTERN GULF TO
90W. A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE SE GULF ALONG
83W GENERATING A DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF ITS AXIS WHICH IN TURN IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WATERS E
OF 84W. LIGHT TO GENTLE SE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE SMALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED TO BE OVER THE
SW GULF ALSO REACHES THE NW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS CUBA...JAMAICA AND THEIR ADJACENT WATERS N OF 18N AND W
OF 75W. A BROAD SURFACE HIGH THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE NW
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND S REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. WITH
THIS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE
WINDS MAINLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-82W. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NE
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF
12N BETWEEN 75W-84W. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE HIGH THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC EXTENDS S
REACHING THE ISLAND AND THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS HAITI WHICH WILL DISSIPATE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED N OF OUR AREA PREVAILS ACROSS THE
NW ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TO THE E...A PAIR OF
SURFACE TROUGHS WERE ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE
FIRST EXTENDS FROM 27N59W TO 26N62W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE SECOND ONE IS FROM 30N52W TO
22N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF 26N BETWEEN
49W-59W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. EXPECT FOR THE
SURFACE TROUGHS TO LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 252333
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 10N42W TO
00N42W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI
TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE AT MIDDLE
TO LOWER LEVELS E OF THE AXIS. A DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WAVE FROM 00N-06N BETWEEN 37W-47W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 05N15W. FROM THAT POINT THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND EXTENDS TO 06N38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF BOTH AXES.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE HIGH PREVAILS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC EXTENDING ITS AXIS
SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REACHING THE EASTERN GULF TO
90W. A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE SE GULF ALONG
83W GENERATING A DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF ITS AXIS WHICH IN TURN IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WATERS E
OF 84W. LIGHT TO GENTLE SE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE SMALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED TO BE OVER THE
SW GULF ALSO REACHES THE NW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS CUBA...JAMAICA AND THEIR ADJACENT WATERS N OF 18N AND W
OF 75W. A BROAD SURFACE HIGH THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE NW
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND S REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. WITH
THIS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE
WINDS MAINLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-82W. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NE
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF
12N BETWEEN 75W-84W. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE HIGH THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC EXTENDS S
REACHING THE ISLAND AND THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS HAITI WHICH WILL DISSIPATE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED N OF OUR AREA PREVAILS ACROSS THE
NW ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TO THE E...A PAIR OF
SURFACE TROUGHS WERE ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE
FIRST EXTENDS FROM 27N59W TO 26N62W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE SECOND ONE IS FROM 30N52W TO
22N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF 26N BETWEEN
49W-59W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. EXPECT FOR THE
SURFACE TROUGHS TO LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 252321
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A nearly-stationary area of low pressure located about 1600 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms well east of the
circulation center.  Significant development of this system appears
unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico are associated with a trough of low
pressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form after mid-week while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 252321
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A nearly-stationary area of low pressure located about 1600 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms well east of the
circulation center.  Significant development of this system appears
unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico are associated with a trough of low
pressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form after mid-week while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252135
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 01N TO 11N ALONG ROUGHLY 88W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 05N TO
09N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W
AROUND 10-15 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 02N TO 13N ALONG ROUGHLY 100W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 360 NM
W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 09N TONIGHT. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS
FORECAST AFTER WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT IN LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL NEAR THE WAVE S OF 10N UNDER MODERATE TO FRESH
SW WINDS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ HAVE BROKEN DOWN WITH LIGHT WINDS
FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHERE THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS
CLIMATOLOGICAL FOUND. ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL
WAVES...A LOW PRES AREA IS NOTED NEAR 09N117W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W QUADRANT OF THE LOW. A
SECOND LOW PRES AREA WAS NOTED NEAR 13N131W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 E SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REACHES FROM ROUGHLY 30N125W TO NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES JALISCO. RESIDENT TROUGHING FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA TO
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS FAIRLY WEAK. THIS IS
RESULTING IN GENERALLY MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE BAJA
COAST AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SW TO W WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT OFF THE BAJA COAST...DUE IN PART
TO LINGERING LONGER PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS WEST OF 100W. CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FLARING ALONG THE NORTHERN END OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF 105W. LOW PRES IS STARTING TO FORM ALONG
THE TROPICAL WAVE FARTHER SOUTH NEAR 10N
...AND THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS AND CONVECTION N OF 15N E OF
100W INTO MID WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOW TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND DRIFTING WNW THROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN STRENGTH...TIMING AND POSITION
IN THE MODELS...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE DEVELOPING
LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NE OF CLIPPERTON ISLAND NEAR 10N109W BY
LATE WED THEN DEVELOP FURTHER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS IT MOVES NNW
TOWARD THE ISLAS REVILLAGIGEDO.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...
STRONG GAP WIND FLOW TO 25 KT IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN EXITING
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 88W. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT AND WILL BUILD TO 8
FT IN THE AREAS OF THE STRONG GAP WINDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE AS THE TROPICAL WAVES
SHIFT WESTWARD. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RAPIDSCAT
PASS FROM EARLY TODAY INDICATED THE FIRST SIGNS OF A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 100W. WHILE ONLY
MODERATE SW FLOW IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THIS LOW THROUGH
TUE...SEAS WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 8 FT AS THE WINDS INCREASE
INTO THE LOW DUE TO PRE-EXISTING SOUTHERLY SWELL IN THE AREA
THAT IS KEEPING COMBINED WAVE HEIGHTS TO NEAR 7 FT. THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE WILL START BY MID WEEK AS CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR THE LOW PRES NEAR 109W TO DEVELOP FURTHER POSSIBLY
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE
LOW WILL SHIFT WNW PASSING TO THE NE OF CLIPPERTON ISLAND NEAR
10N109W THU THEN NW OF THE AREA FRI.

A NEW BATCH OF SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 19-21 SECOND RANGE
CROSSED THE EQUATOR OVERNIGHT. IT WILL REACH THE COAST WITH 3-4
FT SEAS FROM NEAR THE BORDER OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA SOUTHWARD AS
WELL AS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM ACAPULCO TO PUERTO ANGEL
WITH 5-6 FT SEAS BY TUE MORNING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
PACIFIC COAST S OF TODOS SANTOS ON THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA BY WED MORNING. THIS SWELL WILL PRODUCE LARGE AND
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTLINE. CAUTION SHOULD BE
USED ENTERING AND EXITING HARBORS DURING THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE...
A 1010 MB LOW PRES AREA IS NOTED ON LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 09N117W AND WAS DEPICTED WELL IN A 16 UTC
RAPIDSCAT PASS. DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE
TO THE NORTH IS SHEARING THE CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW PRES TO
THE WEST...LEAVING THE CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED. 15 KT FLOW ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS LOW MAY INCREASE TO 20 KT TONIGHT WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF 8 FT SEAS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE CENTER.  NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH THIS LOW THROUGH 48
HOURS. A SECOND 1009 MB LOW PRES AREA IS CENTERED NEAR 13N131W.
WHILE STRONG CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR THIS LOW CENTER...IT
REMAINS SHEAR TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER DUE A NEARBY UPPER
TROUGH. AS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW...THIS LOW PRES IS NOT
EXPECTED TO DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
WESTERLY SHEAR. 20 TO 25 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT ARE NOTED
WITHIN 150 NM. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE
LOW WEAKENS...BUT SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL PERSIST IN A BROAD
MIX OF SWELL FROM 13N TO 18N W OF 127W THROUGH TUE. FARTHER
NORTH...A WEAK COLD FRONT REACHES FROM 30N128W TO 26N137W TO
22N140W. 20 TO 25 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS NOTED JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT N OF 27N...ALONG WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 8 FT THROUGH EARLY TUE.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252135
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 01N TO 11N ALONG ROUGHLY 88W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 05N TO
09N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W
AROUND 10-15 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 02N TO 13N ALONG ROUGHLY 100W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 360 NM
W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 09N TONIGHT. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS
FORECAST AFTER WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT IN LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL NEAR THE WAVE S OF 10N UNDER MODERATE TO FRESH
SW WINDS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ HAVE BROKEN DOWN WITH LIGHT WINDS
FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHERE THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS
CLIMATOLOGICAL FOUND. ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL
WAVES...A LOW PRES AREA IS NOTED NEAR 09N117W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W QUADRANT OF THE LOW. A
SECOND LOW PRES AREA WAS NOTED NEAR 13N131W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 E SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REACHES FROM ROUGHLY 30N125W TO NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES JALISCO. RESIDENT TROUGHING FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA TO
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS FAIRLY WEAK. THIS IS
RESULTING IN GENERALLY MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE BAJA
COAST AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SW TO W WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT OFF THE BAJA COAST...DUE IN PART
TO LINGERING LONGER PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS WEST OF 100W. CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FLARING ALONG THE NORTHERN END OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF 105W. LOW PRES IS STARTING TO FORM ALONG
THE TROPICAL WAVE FARTHER SOUTH NEAR 10N
...AND THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS AND CONVECTION N OF 15N E OF
100W INTO MID WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOW TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND DRIFTING WNW THROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN STRENGTH...TIMING AND POSITION
IN THE MODELS...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE DEVELOPING
LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NE OF CLIPPERTON ISLAND NEAR 10N109W BY
LATE WED THEN DEVELOP FURTHER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS IT MOVES NNW
TOWARD THE ISLAS REVILLAGIGEDO.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...
STRONG GAP WIND FLOW TO 25 KT IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN EXITING
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 88W. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT AND WILL BUILD TO 8
FT IN THE AREAS OF THE STRONG GAP WINDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE AS THE TROPICAL WAVES
SHIFT WESTWARD. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RAPIDSCAT
PASS FROM EARLY TODAY INDICATED THE FIRST SIGNS OF A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 100W. WHILE ONLY
MODERATE SW FLOW IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THIS LOW THROUGH
TUE...SEAS WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 8 FT AS THE WINDS INCREASE
INTO THE LOW DUE TO PRE-EXISTING SOUTHERLY SWELL IN THE AREA
THAT IS KEEPING COMBINED WAVE HEIGHTS TO NEAR 7 FT. THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE WILL START BY MID WEEK AS CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR THE LOW PRES NEAR 109W TO DEVELOP FURTHER POSSIBLY
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE
LOW WILL SHIFT WNW PASSING TO THE NE OF CLIPPERTON ISLAND NEAR
10N109W THU THEN NW OF THE AREA FRI.

A NEW BATCH OF SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 19-21 SECOND RANGE
CROSSED THE EQUATOR OVERNIGHT. IT WILL REACH THE COAST WITH 3-4
FT SEAS FROM NEAR THE BORDER OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA SOUTHWARD AS
WELL AS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM ACAPULCO TO PUERTO ANGEL
WITH 5-6 FT SEAS BY TUE MORNING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
PACIFIC COAST S OF TODOS SANTOS ON THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA BY WED MORNING. THIS SWELL WILL PRODUCE LARGE AND
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTLINE. CAUTION SHOULD BE
USED ENTERING AND EXITING HARBORS DURING THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE...
A 1010 MB LOW PRES AREA IS NOTED ON LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 09N117W AND WAS DEPICTED WELL IN A 16 UTC
RAPIDSCAT PASS. DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE
TO THE NORTH IS SHEARING THE CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW PRES TO
THE WEST...LEAVING THE CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED. 15 KT FLOW ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS LOW MAY INCREASE TO 20 KT TONIGHT WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF 8 FT SEAS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE CENTER.  NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH THIS LOW THROUGH 48
HOURS. A SECOND 1009 MB LOW PRES AREA IS CENTERED NEAR 13N131W.
WHILE STRONG CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR THIS LOW CENTER...IT
REMAINS SHEAR TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER DUE A NEARBY UPPER
TROUGH. AS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW...THIS LOW PRES IS NOT
EXPECTED TO DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
WESTERLY SHEAR. 20 TO 25 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT ARE NOTED
WITHIN 150 NM. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE
LOW WEAKENS...BUT SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL PERSIST IN A BROAD
MIX OF SWELL FROM 13N TO 18N W OF 127W THROUGH TUE. FARTHER
NORTH...A WEAK COLD FRONT REACHES FROM 30N128W TO 26N137W TO
22N140W. 20 TO 25 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS NOTED JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT N OF 27N...ALONG WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 8 FT THROUGH EARLY TUE.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252135
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 01N TO 11N ALONG ROUGHLY 88W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 05N TO
09N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W
AROUND 10-15 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 02N TO 13N ALONG ROUGHLY 100W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 360 NM
W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 09N TONIGHT. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS
FORECAST AFTER WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT IN LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL NEAR THE WAVE S OF 10N UNDER MODERATE TO FRESH
SW WINDS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ HAVE BROKEN DOWN WITH LIGHT WINDS
FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHERE THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS
CLIMATOLOGICAL FOUND. ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL
WAVES...A LOW PRES AREA IS NOTED NEAR 09N117W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W QUADRANT OF THE LOW. A
SECOND LOW PRES AREA WAS NOTED NEAR 13N131W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 E SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REACHES FROM ROUGHLY 30N125W TO NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES JALISCO. RESIDENT TROUGHING FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA TO
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS FAIRLY WEAK. THIS IS
RESULTING IN GENERALLY MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE BAJA
COAST AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SW TO W WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT OFF THE BAJA COAST...DUE IN PART
TO LINGERING LONGER PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS WEST OF 100W. CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FLARING ALONG THE NORTHERN END OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF 105W. LOW PRES IS STARTING TO FORM ALONG
THE TROPICAL WAVE FARTHER SOUTH NEAR 10N
...AND THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS AND CONVECTION N OF 15N E OF
100W INTO MID WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOW TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND DRIFTING WNW THROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN STRENGTH...TIMING AND POSITION
IN THE MODELS...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE DEVELOPING
LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NE OF CLIPPERTON ISLAND NEAR 10N109W BY
LATE WED THEN DEVELOP FURTHER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS IT MOVES NNW
TOWARD THE ISLAS REVILLAGIGEDO.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...
STRONG GAP WIND FLOW TO 25 KT IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN EXITING
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 88W. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT AND WILL BUILD TO 8
FT IN THE AREAS OF THE STRONG GAP WINDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE AS THE TROPICAL WAVES
SHIFT WESTWARD. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RAPIDSCAT
PASS FROM EARLY TODAY INDICATED THE FIRST SIGNS OF A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 100W. WHILE ONLY
MODERATE SW FLOW IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THIS LOW THROUGH
TUE...SEAS WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 8 FT AS THE WINDS INCREASE
INTO THE LOW DUE TO PRE-EXISTING SOUTHERLY SWELL IN THE AREA
THAT IS KEEPING COMBINED WAVE HEIGHTS TO NEAR 7 FT. THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE WILL START BY MID WEEK AS CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR THE LOW PRES NEAR 109W TO DEVELOP FURTHER POSSIBLY
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE
LOW WILL SHIFT WNW PASSING TO THE NE OF CLIPPERTON ISLAND NEAR
10N109W THU THEN NW OF THE AREA FRI.

A NEW BATCH OF SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 19-21 SECOND RANGE
CROSSED THE EQUATOR OVERNIGHT. IT WILL REACH THE COAST WITH 3-4
FT SEAS FROM NEAR THE BORDER OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA SOUTHWARD AS
WELL AS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM ACAPULCO TO PUERTO ANGEL
WITH 5-6 FT SEAS BY TUE MORNING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
PACIFIC COAST S OF TODOS SANTOS ON THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA BY WED MORNING. THIS SWELL WILL PRODUCE LARGE AND
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTLINE. CAUTION SHOULD BE
USED ENTERING AND EXITING HARBORS DURING THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE...
A 1010 MB LOW PRES AREA IS NOTED ON LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 09N117W AND WAS DEPICTED WELL IN A 16 UTC
RAPIDSCAT PASS. DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE
TO THE NORTH IS SHEARING THE CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW PRES TO
THE WEST...LEAVING THE CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED. 15 KT FLOW ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS LOW MAY INCREASE TO 20 KT TONIGHT WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF 8 FT SEAS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE CENTER.  NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH THIS LOW THROUGH 48
HOURS. A SECOND 1009 MB LOW PRES AREA IS CENTERED NEAR 13N131W.
WHILE STRONG CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR THIS LOW CENTER...IT
REMAINS SHEAR TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER DUE A NEARBY UPPER
TROUGH. AS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW...THIS LOW PRES IS NOT
EXPECTED TO DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
WESTERLY SHEAR. 20 TO 25 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT ARE NOTED
WITHIN 150 NM. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE
LOW WEAKENS...BUT SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL PERSIST IN A BROAD
MIX OF SWELL FROM 13N TO 18N W OF 127W THROUGH TUE. FARTHER
NORTH...A WEAK COLD FRONT REACHES FROM 30N128W TO 26N137W TO
22N140W. 20 TO 25 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS NOTED JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT N OF 27N...ALONG WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 8 FT THROUGH EARLY TUE.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252135
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 01N TO 11N ALONG ROUGHLY 88W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 05N TO
09N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W
AROUND 10-15 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 02N TO 13N ALONG ROUGHLY 100W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 360 NM
W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 09N TONIGHT. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS
FORECAST AFTER WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT IN LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL NEAR THE WAVE S OF 10N UNDER MODERATE TO FRESH
SW WINDS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ HAVE BROKEN DOWN WITH LIGHT WINDS
FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHERE THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS
CLIMATOLOGICAL FOUND. ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL
WAVES...A LOW PRES AREA IS NOTED NEAR 09N117W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W QUADRANT OF THE LOW. A
SECOND LOW PRES AREA WAS NOTED NEAR 13N131W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 E SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REACHES FROM ROUGHLY 30N125W TO NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES JALISCO. RESIDENT TROUGHING FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA TO
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS FAIRLY WEAK. THIS IS
RESULTING IN GENERALLY MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE BAJA
COAST AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SW TO W WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT OFF THE BAJA COAST...DUE IN PART
TO LINGERING LONGER PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS WEST OF 100W. CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FLARING ALONG THE NORTHERN END OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF 105W. LOW PRES IS STARTING TO FORM ALONG
THE TROPICAL WAVE FARTHER SOUTH NEAR 10N
...AND THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS AND CONVECTION N OF 15N E OF
100W INTO MID WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOW TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND DRIFTING WNW THROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN STRENGTH...TIMING AND POSITION
IN THE MODELS...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE DEVELOPING
LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NE OF CLIPPERTON ISLAND NEAR 10N109W BY
LATE WED THEN DEVELOP FURTHER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS IT MOVES NNW
TOWARD THE ISLAS REVILLAGIGEDO.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...
STRONG GAP WIND FLOW TO 25 KT IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN EXITING
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 88W. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT AND WILL BUILD TO 8
FT IN THE AREAS OF THE STRONG GAP WINDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE AS THE TROPICAL WAVES
SHIFT WESTWARD. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RAPIDSCAT
PASS FROM EARLY TODAY INDICATED THE FIRST SIGNS OF A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 100W. WHILE ONLY
MODERATE SW FLOW IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THIS LOW THROUGH
TUE...SEAS WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 8 FT AS THE WINDS INCREASE
INTO THE LOW DUE TO PRE-EXISTING SOUTHERLY SWELL IN THE AREA
THAT IS KEEPING COMBINED WAVE HEIGHTS TO NEAR 7 FT. THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE WILL START BY MID WEEK AS CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR THE LOW PRES NEAR 109W TO DEVELOP FURTHER POSSIBLY
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE
LOW WILL SHIFT WNW PASSING TO THE NE OF CLIPPERTON ISLAND NEAR
10N109W THU THEN NW OF THE AREA FRI.

A NEW BATCH OF SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 19-21 SECOND RANGE
CROSSED THE EQUATOR OVERNIGHT. IT WILL REACH THE COAST WITH 3-4
FT SEAS FROM NEAR THE BORDER OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA SOUTHWARD AS
WELL AS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM ACAPULCO TO PUERTO ANGEL
WITH 5-6 FT SEAS BY TUE MORNING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
PACIFIC COAST S OF TODOS SANTOS ON THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA BY WED MORNING. THIS SWELL WILL PRODUCE LARGE AND
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTLINE. CAUTION SHOULD BE
USED ENTERING AND EXITING HARBORS DURING THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE...
A 1010 MB LOW PRES AREA IS NOTED ON LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 09N117W AND WAS DEPICTED WELL IN A 16 UTC
RAPIDSCAT PASS. DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE
TO THE NORTH IS SHEARING THE CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW PRES TO
THE WEST...LEAVING THE CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED. 15 KT FLOW ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS LOW MAY INCREASE TO 20 KT TONIGHT WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF 8 FT SEAS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE CENTER.  NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH THIS LOW THROUGH 48
HOURS. A SECOND 1009 MB LOW PRES AREA IS CENTERED NEAR 13N131W.
WHILE STRONG CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR THIS LOW CENTER...IT
REMAINS SHEAR TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER DUE A NEARBY UPPER
TROUGH. AS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW...THIS LOW PRES IS NOT
EXPECTED TO DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
WESTERLY SHEAR. 20 TO 25 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT ARE NOTED
WITHIN 150 NM. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE
LOW WEAKENS...BUT SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL PERSIST IN A BROAD
MIX OF SWELL FROM 13N TO 18N W OF 127W THROUGH TUE. FARTHER
NORTH...A WEAK COLD FRONT REACHES FROM 30N128W TO 26N137W TO
22N140W. 20 TO 25 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS NOTED JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT N OF 27N...ALONG WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 8 FT THROUGH EARLY TUE.

$$
CHRISTENSEN




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