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000
AXNT20 KNHC 191119
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N14W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 07N16W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N32W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-
08N E OF 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL SW TO W FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ADVECTING
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EPAC MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH MOISTURE ALOFT
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND N OF 24N...W OF 87W. A
1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER E CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. TO THE
N...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 28N96W TO 28N94W TO 27N92W.
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. ANCHORED
BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER W ILLINOIS EXTENDS SE INTO THE
NE GULF WATERS. RETURN FLOW OF 5-15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
RIDGE CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRY COOL AIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER
BASIN...SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES. OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND ENTER THE W GULF
WATERS ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BASIN EXTENDING FROM 20N85W TO
16N84W TO 11N83W. A HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDS ACROSS
THE NW BASIN W OF 79W...WHICH ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH ENHANCES
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 80W-87W. A
SMALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 67W AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO. THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THESE ISLANDS AND THEIR
ADJACENT WATERS. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
BASIN SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. TRADES OF 10-
15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY...HOWEVER LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT MAY STILL ENHANCE ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NW BASIN
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND PROMOTING FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY SATURDAY
INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. THE
FIRST FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N72W TO 37N57W THEN INTO THE N
ATLANTIC WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT. TO THE
E...ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 25N75W TO 32N58W TO 43N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS N OF 34N BETWEEN 46W-53W.
FURTHER E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 48W SUPPORTS A
1014 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N44W AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 21N46W. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS N FROM THIS LOW ALSO TO 44N28W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 19N-36N BETWEEN 36W-47W. A 1034 MB
HIGH CONTINUES NEAR 39N19W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E
ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT ACROSS
THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E WHILE WEAKENING. THE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE N ENHANCING CONVECTION WHILE THE
FRONTS ASSOCIATED TO IT WILL WEAKEN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 191119
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N14W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 07N16W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N32W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-
08N E OF 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL SW TO W FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ADVECTING
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EPAC MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH MOISTURE ALOFT
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND N OF 24N...W OF 87W. A
1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER E CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. TO THE
N...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 28N96W TO 28N94W TO 27N92W.
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. ANCHORED
BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER W ILLINOIS EXTENDS SE INTO THE
NE GULF WATERS. RETURN FLOW OF 5-15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
RIDGE CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRY COOL AIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER
BASIN...SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES. OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND ENTER THE W GULF
WATERS ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BASIN EXTENDING FROM 20N85W TO
16N84W TO 11N83W. A HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDS ACROSS
THE NW BASIN W OF 79W...WHICH ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH ENHANCES
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 80W-87W. A
SMALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 67W AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO. THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THESE ISLANDS AND THEIR
ADJACENT WATERS. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
BASIN SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. TRADES OF 10-
15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY...HOWEVER LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT MAY STILL ENHANCE ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NW BASIN
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND PROMOTING FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY SATURDAY
INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. THE
FIRST FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N72W TO 37N57W THEN INTO THE N
ATLANTIC WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT. TO THE
E...ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 25N75W TO 32N58W TO 43N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS N OF 34N BETWEEN 46W-53W.
FURTHER E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 48W SUPPORTS A
1014 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N44W AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 21N46W. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS N FROM THIS LOW ALSO TO 44N28W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 19N-36N BETWEEN 36W-47W. A 1034 MB
HIGH CONTINUES NEAR 39N19W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E
ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT ACROSS
THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E WHILE WEAKENING. THE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE N ENHANCING CONVECTION WHILE THE
FRONTS ASSOCIATED TO IT WILL WEAKEN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190924
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N78W TO 08N86W TO 07N93W.
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM  07N93W TO 06N114W TO 07N130W TO
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05.5N TO 07N
BETWEEN 126W AND 130W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM N OF A LINE FROM
10N120W TO 10N125W TO 07N130W.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NW OF A LINE FROM
15N114W TO 12N120W UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AT 1025 MB NEAR 28N125W EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE SE
TO NEAR 19N109W AND ALSO WSW TO NEAR 26N140W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE S
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS. THESE
TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS NEW AND STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA.

LARGE NW SWELLS UP TO 17 FT WILL BREACH 30N140W IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING THE MAJORITY
OF THE WATERS W OF 95W-100W. PEAK SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 13 FT BY
48 HOURS WHILE SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WATERS W OF 110W THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS AS EARLY AS SAT
EVENING...WITH 7-10 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY EARLY SUN AND CONTINUING THROUGH
LATE MON BEFORE SUBSIDING.

OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIP
THE WATERS N OF 28N THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE IMPACT
OTHER THAN A BRIEF WINDSHIFT BEHIND EACH BOUNDARY.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A MAXIMUM OF 10-15 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS DURING NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH TUE NIGHT...WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE NEXT GALE EVENT BY EARLY WED
MORNING WITH WINDS UP TO 40 KT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN 10-15 KT THROUGH WED.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW-N 10-20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUE NIGHT SUPPORTED BY A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
...DIMINISHING TO 5-15 KT THEREAFTER.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190924
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N78W TO 08N86W TO 07N93W.
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM  07N93W TO 06N114W TO 07N130W TO
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05.5N TO 07N
BETWEEN 126W AND 130W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM N OF A LINE FROM
10N120W TO 10N125W TO 07N130W.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NW OF A LINE FROM
15N114W TO 12N120W UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AT 1025 MB NEAR 28N125W EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE SE
TO NEAR 19N109W AND ALSO WSW TO NEAR 26N140W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE S
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS. THESE
TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS NEW AND STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA.

LARGE NW SWELLS UP TO 17 FT WILL BREACH 30N140W IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING THE MAJORITY
OF THE WATERS W OF 95W-100W. PEAK SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 13 FT BY
48 HOURS WHILE SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WATERS W OF 110W THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS AS EARLY AS SAT
EVENING...WITH 7-10 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY EARLY SUN AND CONTINUING THROUGH
LATE MON BEFORE SUBSIDING.

OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIP
THE WATERS N OF 28N THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE IMPACT
OTHER THAN A BRIEF WINDSHIFT BEHIND EACH BOUNDARY.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A MAXIMUM OF 10-15 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS DURING NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH TUE NIGHT...WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE NEXT GALE EVENT BY EARLY WED
MORNING WITH WINDS UP TO 40 KT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN 10-15 KT THROUGH WED.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW-N 10-20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUE NIGHT SUPPORTED BY A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
...DIMINISHING TO 5-15 KT THEREAFTER.

$$
LEWITSKY


000
AXNT20 KNHC 190537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 07N16W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 04N34W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-
07N E OF 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL SW TO W FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ADVECTING
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EPAC MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS. A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW CONTINUES OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS FROM
WHICH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 29N95W TO 29N94W TO
25N86W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
ALONG WITH MOISTURE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND N OF 26N...W OF 89W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER NORTHERN IOWA
EXTENDS SE INTO THE NE GULF WATERS. RETURN FLOW OF 5-15 KT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRY COOL AIR
ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN...SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL
MOVE E-NE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI SW TO EASTERN
MEXICO COASTAL WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BASIN EXTENDING FROM 20N84W TO
16N84W TO 13N83W. A HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDS ACROSS
THE NW BASIN W OF 79W...WHICH ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH ENHANCES
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 81W-86W. A
SMALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 67W AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO. THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THESE ISLANDS AND THEIR
ADJACENT WATERS. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
BASIN SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. TRADES OF 15
KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER LINGERING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY STILL ENHANCE ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THE NW BASIN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND PROMOTING FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY SATURDAY
INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. THE
FIRST FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N80W TO 36N62W THEN INTO THE N
ATLANTIC WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT. TO THE
E...ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 26N75W TO 34N56W TO 46N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS N OF 34N BETWEEN 51W-56W.
FURTHER E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 50W SUPPORTS A
1015 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N46W AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 21N47W. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS N FROM THIS LOW ALSO TO 43N29W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 20N-33N BETWEEN 36W-46W. A 1036 MB
HIGH IS NEAR 39N19W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E
ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT ACROSS
THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E WHILE WEAKENING. THE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NW ENHANCING CONVECTION WHILE THE
FRONTS ASSOCIATED TO IT WILL WEAKEN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190331
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AT
05N77W TO 07N85W...THEN TURNS SW TO 07N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH WIGGLES W TO 05N117W TO
07N130W AND CONTINUES BEYOND 05N140W. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 150 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ITCZ BETWEEN 77-127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 126-133W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING S FROM
32N108W TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 10N137W. SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA FROM 32N131W TO 21N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ENHANCED SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE ITCZ WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N127W TO 17N112W. A DENSE
TROPICAL PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE THAT ORIGINATED FROM ITCZ
CONVECTION BETWEEN 130-170W...CONTINUES TO STREAM NE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
07N127W TO 23N107W CONTINUING NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...EVENTUALLY
TURNING E ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. DEBRIS
MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS E OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IS RE-ENFORCING THE PLUME.

AT THE LOW LEVELS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS W
OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 00N105W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
28N140W TO 15N98W WITH A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PASS QUICKLY E
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE RIDGE ON FRI-SAT. ALTHOUGH EXPECTING ONLY
A W-NW 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE FRONT...LARGE POST-FRONTAL NW
SWELLS WILL DRIVE COMBINED SEAS UP TO 17 FT NEAR 30N138W ON FRI AND
NEAR 30N128W ON SAT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS AS
EARLY AS SAT EVENING...WITH 7-10 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY EARLY SUN AND CONTINUING
THROUGH LATE MON BEFORE SUBSIDING.

NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE
ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM 10-17N W OF 130W. THE GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS
SPREADING BOTH NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THE NEXT GALE EVENT WILL OCCUR LATE TUE
NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY SUN THEN 10-15 KT DRAINAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...10-15 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT BY EARLY FRI...AND THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15 KT ON MON.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190331
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AT
05N77W TO 07N85W...THEN TURNS SW TO 07N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH WIGGLES W TO 05N117W TO
07N130W AND CONTINUES BEYOND 05N140W. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 150 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ITCZ BETWEEN 77-127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 126-133W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING S FROM
32N108W TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 10N137W. SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA FROM 32N131W TO 21N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ENHANCED SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE ITCZ WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N127W TO 17N112W. A DENSE
TROPICAL PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE THAT ORIGINATED FROM ITCZ
CONVECTION BETWEEN 130-170W...CONTINUES TO STREAM NE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
07N127W TO 23N107W CONTINUING NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...EVENTUALLY
TURNING E ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. DEBRIS
MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS E OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IS RE-ENFORCING THE PLUME.

AT THE LOW LEVELS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS W
OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 00N105W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
28N140W TO 15N98W WITH A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PASS QUICKLY E
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE RIDGE ON FRI-SAT. ALTHOUGH EXPECTING ONLY
A W-NW 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE FRONT...LARGE POST-FRONTAL NW
SWELLS WILL DRIVE COMBINED SEAS UP TO 17 FT NEAR 30N138W ON FRI AND
NEAR 30N128W ON SAT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS AS
EARLY AS SAT EVENING...WITH 7-10 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY EARLY SUN AND CONTINUING
THROUGH LATE MON BEFORE SUBSIDING.

NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE
ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM 10-17N W OF 130W. THE GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS
SPREADING BOTH NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THE NEXT GALE EVENT WILL OCCUR LATE TUE
NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY SUN THEN 10-15 KT DRAINAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...10-15 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT BY EARLY FRI...AND THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15 KT ON MON.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190331
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AT
05N77W TO 07N85W...THEN TURNS SW TO 07N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH WIGGLES W TO 05N117W TO
07N130W AND CONTINUES BEYOND 05N140W. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 150 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ITCZ BETWEEN 77-127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 126-133W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING S FROM
32N108W TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 10N137W. SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA FROM 32N131W TO 21N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ENHANCED SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE ITCZ WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N127W TO 17N112W. A DENSE
TROPICAL PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE THAT ORIGINATED FROM ITCZ
CONVECTION BETWEEN 130-170W...CONTINUES TO STREAM NE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
07N127W TO 23N107W CONTINUING NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...EVENTUALLY
TURNING E ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. DEBRIS
MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS E OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IS RE-ENFORCING THE PLUME.

AT THE LOW LEVELS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS W
OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 00N105W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
28N140W TO 15N98W WITH A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PASS QUICKLY E
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE RIDGE ON FRI-SAT. ALTHOUGH EXPECTING ONLY
A W-NW 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE FRONT...LARGE POST-FRONTAL NW
SWELLS WILL DRIVE COMBINED SEAS UP TO 17 FT NEAR 30N138W ON FRI AND
NEAR 30N128W ON SAT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS AS
EARLY AS SAT EVENING...WITH 7-10 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY EARLY SUN AND CONTINUING
THROUGH LATE MON BEFORE SUBSIDING.

NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE
ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM 10-17N W OF 130W. THE GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS
SPREADING BOTH NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THE NEXT GALE EVENT WILL OCCUR LATE TUE
NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY SUN THEN 10-15 KT DRAINAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...10-15 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT BY EARLY FRI...AND THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15 KT ON MON.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190331
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AT
05N77W TO 07N85W...THEN TURNS SW TO 07N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH WIGGLES W TO 05N117W TO
07N130W AND CONTINUES BEYOND 05N140W. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 150 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ITCZ BETWEEN 77-127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 126-133W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING S FROM
32N108W TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 10N137W. SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA FROM 32N131W TO 21N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ENHANCED SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE ITCZ WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N127W TO 17N112W. A DENSE
TROPICAL PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE THAT ORIGINATED FROM ITCZ
CONVECTION BETWEEN 130-170W...CONTINUES TO STREAM NE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
07N127W TO 23N107W CONTINUING NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...EVENTUALLY
TURNING E ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. DEBRIS
MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS E OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IS RE-ENFORCING THE PLUME.

AT THE LOW LEVELS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS W
OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 00N105W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
28N140W TO 15N98W WITH A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PASS QUICKLY E
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE RIDGE ON FRI-SAT. ALTHOUGH EXPECTING ONLY
A W-NW 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE FRONT...LARGE POST-FRONTAL NW
SWELLS WILL DRIVE COMBINED SEAS UP TO 17 FT NEAR 30N138W ON FRI AND
NEAR 30N128W ON SAT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS AS
EARLY AS SAT EVENING...WITH 7-10 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY EARLY SUN AND CONTINUING
THROUGH LATE MON BEFORE SUBSIDING.

NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE
ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM 10-17N W OF 130W. THE GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS
SPREADING BOTH NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THE NEXT GALE EVENT WILL OCCUR LATE TUE
NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY SUN THEN 10-15 KT DRAINAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...10-15 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT BY EARLY FRI...AND THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15 KT ON MON.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190331
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AT
05N77W TO 07N85W...THEN TURNS SW TO 07N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH WIGGLES W TO 05N117W TO
07N130W AND CONTINUES BEYOND 05N140W. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 150 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ITCZ BETWEEN 77-127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 126-133W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING S FROM
32N108W TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 10N137W. SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA FROM 32N131W TO 21N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ENHANCED SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE ITCZ WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N127W TO 17N112W. A DENSE
TROPICAL PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE THAT ORIGINATED FROM ITCZ
CONVECTION BETWEEN 130-170W...CONTINUES TO STREAM NE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
07N127W TO 23N107W CONTINUING NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...EVENTUALLY
TURNING E ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. DEBRIS
MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS E OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IS RE-ENFORCING THE PLUME.

AT THE LOW LEVELS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS W
OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 00N105W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
28N140W TO 15N98W WITH A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PASS QUICKLY E
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE RIDGE ON FRI-SAT. ALTHOUGH EXPECTING ONLY
A W-NW 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE FRONT...LARGE POST-FRONTAL NW
SWELLS WILL DRIVE COMBINED SEAS UP TO 17 FT NEAR 30N138W ON FRI AND
NEAR 30N128W ON SAT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS AS
EARLY AS SAT EVENING...WITH 7-10 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY EARLY SUN AND CONTINUING
THROUGH LATE MON BEFORE SUBSIDING.

NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE
ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM 10-17N W OF 130W. THE GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS
SPREADING BOTH NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THE NEXT GALE EVENT WILL OCCUR LATE TUE
NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY SUN THEN 10-15 KT DRAINAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...10-15 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT BY EARLY FRI...AND THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15 KT ON MON.

$$
NELSON


000
AXNT20 KNHC 190004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 07N15W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 04N32W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N
E OF 16W AND FROM 01N-06N W OF 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL SW TO W FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE BASIN AND
CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EPAC TO THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN
TEXAS FROM WHICH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 29N95W SE TO
27N91W TO 25N86W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW ALONG WITH MOISTURE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N W OF 90W. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. BEING ANCHORED BY A
1028 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS EXTENDS SE INTO THE NE GULF
WATERS. RETURN FLOW OF 5-15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRY COOL AIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER
BASIN...WHICH ALONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT PROMOTE FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL TRACK E-NE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI SW TO EASTERN-CENTRAL MEXICO COASTAL WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE FOCUS ON THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS TO BE A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN BASIN EXTENDING FROM 20N84W TO 15N83W TO 11N82W. A
PLUME OF HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE NW BASIN NEAR
20N85W SE TO 13N67W...WHICH CONVERGES ALONG THE NORTHERN TROUGH
TO ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM
15N-21N BETWEEN 80W-86W. ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE IS ENTERING
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BEING ADVECTED FROM AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS MOISTURE IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PUERTO
RICO AND COASTAL WATERS. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE BASIN BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN. THE
SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW BASIN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

BOTH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRY
AIR ACROSS THE ISLAND WHICH HAVE STABILIZED THE ENVIRONMENT AND
IS PROMOTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...THEN A MOIST AIRMASS MOVES
ACROSS THE ISLAND TO ENHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
AND ENTER THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG 30N62W SW TO 28N67W TO
26N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. SE OF THE FRONT...A 1019 MB HIGH IS NEAR
26N64W WHICH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A MIDDLE-LEVEL CYCLONE SUPPORTS A
SURFACE LOW OF 1014 MB NEAR 24N46W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS ALONG 22N45W TO 20N47W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW NORTHWARD ALONG 28N44W TO 32N42W TO 42N30W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 21N BETWEEN 36W-
47W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE NW WHILE THE FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DISSIPATE.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL EXIT THE SE CONUS AND WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 190004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 07N15W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 04N32W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N
E OF 16W AND FROM 01N-06N W OF 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL SW TO W FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE BASIN AND
CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EPAC TO THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN
TEXAS FROM WHICH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 29N95W SE TO
27N91W TO 25N86W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW ALONG WITH MOISTURE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N W OF 90W. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. BEING ANCHORED BY A
1028 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS EXTENDS SE INTO THE NE GULF
WATERS. RETURN FLOW OF 5-15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRY COOL AIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER
BASIN...WHICH ALONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT PROMOTE FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL TRACK E-NE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI SW TO EASTERN-CENTRAL MEXICO COASTAL WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE FOCUS ON THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS TO BE A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN BASIN EXTENDING FROM 20N84W TO 15N83W TO 11N82W. A
PLUME OF HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE NW BASIN NEAR
20N85W SE TO 13N67W...WHICH CONVERGES ALONG THE NORTHERN TROUGH
TO ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM
15N-21N BETWEEN 80W-86W. ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE IS ENTERING
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BEING ADVECTED FROM AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS MOISTURE IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PUERTO
RICO AND COASTAL WATERS. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE BASIN BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN. THE
SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW BASIN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

BOTH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRY
AIR ACROSS THE ISLAND WHICH HAVE STABILIZED THE ENVIRONMENT AND
IS PROMOTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...THEN A MOIST AIRMASS MOVES
ACROSS THE ISLAND TO ENHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
AND ENTER THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG 30N62W SW TO 28N67W TO
26N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. SE OF THE FRONT...A 1019 MB HIGH IS NEAR
26N64W WHICH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A MIDDLE-LEVEL CYCLONE SUPPORTS A
SURFACE LOW OF 1014 MB NEAR 24N46W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS ALONG 22N45W TO 20N47W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW NORTHWARD ALONG 28N44W TO 32N42W TO 42N30W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 21N BETWEEN 36W-
47W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE NW WHILE THE FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DISSIPATE.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL EXIT THE SE CONUS AND WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 190004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 07N15W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 04N32W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N
E OF 16W AND FROM 01N-06N W OF 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL SW TO W FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE BASIN AND
CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EPAC TO THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN
TEXAS FROM WHICH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 29N95W SE TO
27N91W TO 25N86W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW ALONG WITH MOISTURE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N W OF 90W. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. BEING ANCHORED BY A
1028 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS EXTENDS SE INTO THE NE GULF
WATERS. RETURN FLOW OF 5-15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRY COOL AIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER
BASIN...WHICH ALONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT PROMOTE FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL TRACK E-NE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI SW TO EASTERN-CENTRAL MEXICO COASTAL WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE FOCUS ON THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS TO BE A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN BASIN EXTENDING FROM 20N84W TO 15N83W TO 11N82W. A
PLUME OF HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE NW BASIN NEAR
20N85W SE TO 13N67W...WHICH CONVERGES ALONG THE NORTHERN TROUGH
TO ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM
15N-21N BETWEEN 80W-86W. ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE IS ENTERING
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BEING ADVECTED FROM AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS MOISTURE IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PUERTO
RICO AND COASTAL WATERS. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE BASIN BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN. THE
SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW BASIN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

BOTH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRY
AIR ACROSS THE ISLAND WHICH HAVE STABILIZED THE ENVIRONMENT AND
IS PROMOTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...THEN A MOIST AIRMASS MOVES
ACROSS THE ISLAND TO ENHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
AND ENTER THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG 30N62W SW TO 28N67W TO
26N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. SE OF THE FRONT...A 1019 MB HIGH IS NEAR
26N64W WHICH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A MIDDLE-LEVEL CYCLONE SUPPORTS A
SURFACE LOW OF 1014 MB NEAR 24N46W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS ALONG 22N45W TO 20N47W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW NORTHWARD ALONG 28N44W TO 32N42W TO 42N30W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 21N BETWEEN 36W-
47W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE NW WHILE THE FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DISSIPATE.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL EXIT THE SE CONUS AND WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 190004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 07N15W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 04N32W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N
E OF 16W AND FROM 01N-06N W OF 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL SW TO W FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE BASIN AND
CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EPAC TO THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN
TEXAS FROM WHICH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 29N95W SE TO
27N91W TO 25N86W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW ALONG WITH MOISTURE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N W OF 90W. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. BEING ANCHORED BY A
1028 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS EXTENDS SE INTO THE NE GULF
WATERS. RETURN FLOW OF 5-15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRY COOL AIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER
BASIN...WHICH ALONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT PROMOTE FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL TRACK E-NE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI SW TO EASTERN-CENTRAL MEXICO COASTAL WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE FOCUS ON THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS TO BE A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN BASIN EXTENDING FROM 20N84W TO 15N83W TO 11N82W. A
PLUME OF HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE NW BASIN NEAR
20N85W SE TO 13N67W...WHICH CONVERGES ALONG THE NORTHERN TROUGH
TO ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM
15N-21N BETWEEN 80W-86W. ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE IS ENTERING
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BEING ADVECTED FROM AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS MOISTURE IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PUERTO
RICO AND COASTAL WATERS. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE BASIN BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN. THE
SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW BASIN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

BOTH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRY
AIR ACROSS THE ISLAND WHICH HAVE STABILIZED THE ENVIRONMENT AND
IS PROMOTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...THEN A MOIST AIRMASS MOVES
ACROSS THE ISLAND TO ENHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
AND ENTER THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG 30N62W SW TO 28N67W TO
26N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. SE OF THE FRONT...A 1019 MB HIGH IS NEAR
26N64W WHICH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A MIDDLE-LEVEL CYCLONE SUPPORTS A
SURFACE LOW OF 1014 MB NEAR 24N46W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS ALONG 22N45W TO 20N47W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW NORTHWARD ALONG 28N44W TO 32N42W TO 42N30W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 21N BETWEEN 36W-
47W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE NW WHILE THE FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DISSIPATE.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL EXIT THE SE CONUS AND WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182147
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 06N77W TO 06N91W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH WIGGLES W BETWEEN 04-06N TO BEYOND
140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04.5N77W
TO 07N86W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AND MOVED E OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS CURRENTLY
EXTENDING S FROM 32N110W TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT
10N138W. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING E INTO
THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ENHANCED E OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N135W TO 11N121W TO 20N111W. A DENSE
TROPICAL PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE THAT ORIGINATED FROM ITCZ
CONVECTION BETWEEN 130-170W...CONTINUES TO STREAM NE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
07N136W TO ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...EVENTUALLY TURNING E ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS RE-
ENFORCING THE PLUME.

AT THE LOW LEVELS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS
W OF 100W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 28N140W TO 15N98W WITH A
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PASS E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE RIDGE.
ALTHOUGH EXPECTING ONLY A W-NW 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE
FRONT...LARGE POST-FRONTAL NW SWELLS WILL DRIVE COMBINED SEAS UP
TO 17 FT NEAR 30N138W ON FRI. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL
ARRIVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM
OF 8-12 FT SEAS AS EARLY AS SAT EVENING...WITH 7-10 FT SEAS
EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY
EARLY SUN.

NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE
ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 10-15N W OF 135W. THE GRADIENT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE 20-25 KT
CONDITIONS SPREADING BOTH NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THE NEXT GALE EVENT WILL OCCUR LATE TUE
NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY SUN THEN 10-15 KT DRAINAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...10-15 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT BY EARLY FRI...AND THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15 KT ON MON.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182147
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 06N77W TO 06N91W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH WIGGLES W BETWEEN 04-06N TO BEYOND
140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04.5N77W
TO 07N86W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AND MOVED E OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS CURRENTLY
EXTENDING S FROM 32N110W TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT
10N138W. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING E INTO
THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ENHANCED E OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N135W TO 11N121W TO 20N111W. A DENSE
TROPICAL PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE THAT ORIGINATED FROM ITCZ
CONVECTION BETWEEN 130-170W...CONTINUES TO STREAM NE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
07N136W TO ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...EVENTUALLY TURNING E ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS RE-
ENFORCING THE PLUME.

AT THE LOW LEVELS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS
W OF 100W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 28N140W TO 15N98W WITH A
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PASS E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE RIDGE.
ALTHOUGH EXPECTING ONLY A W-NW 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE
FRONT...LARGE POST-FRONTAL NW SWELLS WILL DRIVE COMBINED SEAS UP
TO 17 FT NEAR 30N138W ON FRI. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL
ARRIVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM
OF 8-12 FT SEAS AS EARLY AS SAT EVENING...WITH 7-10 FT SEAS
EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY
EARLY SUN.

NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE
ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 10-15N W OF 135W. THE GRADIENT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE 20-25 KT
CONDITIONS SPREADING BOTH NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THE NEXT GALE EVENT WILL OCCUR LATE TUE
NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY SUN THEN 10-15 KT DRAINAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...10-15 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT BY EARLY FRI...AND THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15 KT ON MON.

$$
NELSON



000
AXNT20 KNHC 181704
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N14W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 05N14W AND CONTINUES TO 05N24W TO 04N35W TO 05N45W TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 22W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WARM FRONT CROSSES INTO THE GULF FROM THE TX COAST NEAR 29N95W
AND CONTINUES TO 28N91W TO 26N87W. THE FRONT THEN TRANSITIONS TO
A STATIONARY FRONT AND CONTINUES FROM 26N87W TO 26N81W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE WARM
FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. S
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE S OF THE FRONTS E OF 90W. S TO SE WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE S OF THE FRONTS W OF 90W. NE WINDS OF 10 TO
15 KT ARE N OF THE WARM FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KT ARE N
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS A LOW OVER S
TEXAS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE N GULF...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SW OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN BASIN AND A WARM/STATIONARY
FRONT E OF THE LOW IN THE NE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N83W TO 10N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 76W TO 85W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 13N WITHIN
75 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO N OF THE
TROUGH AXIS INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND ISLA DE PINOS. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 15N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES
INCLUDING E CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WEST
AS THE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
MOIST NE FLOW ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE ISLAND UNDER MOIST NE LOW LEVEL FLOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 60W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC TO 31N65W TO 28N70W TO 26N77W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT AND CONTINUES ACROSS
S FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE
COLD FRONT. FARTHER EAST...A 1015 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
CENTERED NEAR 24N47W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S OF THE LOW TO
19N47W AND THEN SW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N62W. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NE OF THE LOW TO 31N42W AND THEN OVER
THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF
THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N TO 31N
BETWEEN 38W AND 48W. A 1036 MB AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED E OF THE AZORES DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NW
WHILE THE FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DISSIPATE. CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT
THE SE CONUS AND WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 181704
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N14W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 05N14W AND CONTINUES TO 05N24W TO 04N35W TO 05N45W TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 22W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WARM FRONT CROSSES INTO THE GULF FROM THE TX COAST NEAR 29N95W
AND CONTINUES TO 28N91W TO 26N87W. THE FRONT THEN TRANSITIONS TO
A STATIONARY FRONT AND CONTINUES FROM 26N87W TO 26N81W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE WARM
FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. S
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE S OF THE FRONTS E OF 90W. S TO SE WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE S OF THE FRONTS W OF 90W. NE WINDS OF 10 TO
15 KT ARE N OF THE WARM FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KT ARE N
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS A LOW OVER S
TEXAS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE N GULF...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SW OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN BASIN AND A WARM/STATIONARY
FRONT E OF THE LOW IN THE NE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N83W TO 10N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 76W TO 85W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 13N WITHIN
75 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO N OF THE
TROUGH AXIS INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND ISLA DE PINOS. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 15N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES
INCLUDING E CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WEST
AS THE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
MOIST NE FLOW ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE ISLAND UNDER MOIST NE LOW LEVEL FLOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 60W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC TO 31N65W TO 28N70W TO 26N77W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT AND CONTINUES ACROSS
S FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE
COLD FRONT. FARTHER EAST...A 1015 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
CENTERED NEAR 24N47W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S OF THE LOW TO
19N47W AND THEN SW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N62W. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NE OF THE LOW TO 31N42W AND THEN OVER
THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF
THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N TO 31N
BETWEEN 38W AND 48W. A 1036 MB AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED E OF THE AZORES DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NW
WHILE THE FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DISSIPATE. CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT
THE SE CONUS AND WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181540
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 6N78W TO 6N91W. ITCZ FROM 6N91W TO 6N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS FROM 78W-
81W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE FAR W PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...WITH AXIS FROM 32N127W TO 22N140W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS FROM
15M-30N W OF 125W. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW
MEXICO ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA TO 14N135W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 550 NM SE OF THE
TROUGH. A 100-125 KT JETSTREAM SE OF TROUGH AXIS IS FROM 22N115W
ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.

SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N
OF 15N W OF 115W. ELY TRADE WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE FROM 9N-15N W OF 135W AT 20-25 KT. THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9-14 FT
IN NW SWELL N OF 28N W OF 135W FRI...WITH SEAS 9-10 FT IN MIXED
NW AND NE SWELL ELSEWHERE N OF 8N W OF 115W.

$$
DGS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181540
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 6N78W TO 6N91W. ITCZ FROM 6N91W TO 6N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS FROM 78W-
81W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE FAR W PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...WITH AXIS FROM 32N127W TO 22N140W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS FROM
15M-30N W OF 125W. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW
MEXICO ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA TO 14N135W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 550 NM SE OF THE
TROUGH. A 100-125 KT JETSTREAM SE OF TROUGH AXIS IS FROM 22N115W
ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.

SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N
OF 15N W OF 115W. ELY TRADE WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE FROM 9N-15N W OF 135W AT 20-25 KT. THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9-14 FT
IN NW SWELL N OF 28N W OF 135W FRI...WITH SEAS 9-10 FT IN MIXED
NW AND NE SWELL ELSEWHERE N OF 8N W OF 115W.

$$
DGS



000
AXNT20 KNHC 181102
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N13W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 05N13W AND CONTINUES TO 06N22W TO 04N31W TO 06N41W TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 19W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE BASIN. IT STARTS AS A WARM FRONT
FROM A 1016 MB LOW CENTERED OVER S TEXAS TO 29N95W TO 25N90W. A
STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM 25N90W TO 26N86W. THEN A COLD FRONT
STARTS FROM 26N86W TO 26N82W THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE ATLANTIC. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
BEHIND THE STATIONARY FRONT AFFECTING THE N GULF WATERS N OF 27N
BETWEEN 83W-92W. 05-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE
BASIN EXCEPT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NW GULF WHERE 15-
20 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
PREVAILS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 94W. UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE S
GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO WEAKEN WHILE
BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT
16N62W TO 15N77W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER SECTION OF ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF JAMAICA FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 75W-79W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 13N AND W OF 80W. AT UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO WEAKEN EVEN MORE WHILE BECOMING STATIONARY.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 60W IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE E GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE W ATLANTIC 26N80W TO 30N67W TO 43N61W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE
E...A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N53W. A 1014 MB
SURFACE LOW IS NOTED NEAR 25N47W. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WITH AXIS ALONG 48W SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IT STARTS AS A COLD FRONT FROM 16N61W TO
24N45W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 24N45W TO 40N35W. THEN A
COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT INTO THE N ATLANTIC.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THESE
BOUNDARIES N OF 20N BETWEEN 37W-47W. A LARGE 1033 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED E OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N20W. EXPECT THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHILE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 181102
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N13W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 05N13W AND CONTINUES TO 06N22W TO 04N31W TO 06N41W TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 19W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE BASIN. IT STARTS AS A WARM FRONT
FROM A 1016 MB LOW CENTERED OVER S TEXAS TO 29N95W TO 25N90W. A
STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM 25N90W TO 26N86W. THEN A COLD FRONT
STARTS FROM 26N86W TO 26N82W THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE ATLANTIC. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
BEHIND THE STATIONARY FRONT AFFECTING THE N GULF WATERS N OF 27N
BETWEEN 83W-92W. 05-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE
BASIN EXCEPT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NW GULF WHERE 15-
20 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
PREVAILS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 94W. UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE S
GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO WEAKEN WHILE
BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT
16N62W TO 15N77W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER SECTION OF ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF JAMAICA FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 75W-79W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 13N AND W OF 80W. AT UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO WEAKEN EVEN MORE WHILE BECOMING STATIONARY.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 60W IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE E GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE W ATLANTIC 26N80W TO 30N67W TO 43N61W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE
E...A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N53W. A 1014 MB
SURFACE LOW IS NOTED NEAR 25N47W. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WITH AXIS ALONG 48W SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IT STARTS AS A COLD FRONT FROM 16N61W TO
24N45W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 24N45W TO 40N35W. THEN A
COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT INTO THE N ATLANTIC.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THESE
BOUNDARIES N OF 20N BETWEEN 37W-47W. A LARGE 1033 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED E OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N20W. EXPECT THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHILE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 181102
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N13W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 05N13W AND CONTINUES TO 06N22W TO 04N31W TO 06N41W TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 19W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE BASIN. IT STARTS AS A WARM FRONT
FROM A 1016 MB LOW CENTERED OVER S TEXAS TO 29N95W TO 25N90W. A
STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM 25N90W TO 26N86W. THEN A COLD FRONT
STARTS FROM 26N86W TO 26N82W THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE ATLANTIC. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
BEHIND THE STATIONARY FRONT AFFECTING THE N GULF WATERS N OF 27N
BETWEEN 83W-92W. 05-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE
BASIN EXCEPT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NW GULF WHERE 15-
20 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
PREVAILS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 94W. UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE S
GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO WEAKEN WHILE
BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT
16N62W TO 15N77W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER SECTION OF ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF JAMAICA FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 75W-79W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 13N AND W OF 80W. AT UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO WEAKEN EVEN MORE WHILE BECOMING STATIONARY.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 60W IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE E GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE W ATLANTIC 26N80W TO 30N67W TO 43N61W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE
E...A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N53W. A 1014 MB
SURFACE LOW IS NOTED NEAR 25N47W. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WITH AXIS ALONG 48W SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IT STARTS AS A COLD FRONT FROM 16N61W TO
24N45W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 24N45W TO 40N35W. THEN A
COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT INTO THE N ATLANTIC.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THESE
BOUNDARIES N OF 20N BETWEEN 37W-47W. A LARGE 1033 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED E OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N20W. EXPECT THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHILE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180923
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
NEAR 06N77W TO 07N90W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ EXTENDING
WESTWARD TO BEYOND 05N140W. MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN
60 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 95W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
TO 22N120W WILL SHIFT E TODAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS
BUILDING OVER THE REGION W OF 120W. AN ASSOCIATED 1027 MB
SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N148W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO
THE CENTRAL COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A 06 UTC
ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATES FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS SOUTH
OF THE RIDGE FROM THE ITCZ TO GENERALLY 20N. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO
INDICATED A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH OF 10N EMBEDDED IN THE
ITCZ NEAR 138W. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING ALONG THE ITCZ OVER
THE PASS COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IS ENHANCING TRADE WIND FLOW TOWARD
THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH. SEVERAL ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS INDICATED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN THE AREA
OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS...LIKELY A COMBINATION OF
LINGERING LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH SEAS GENERATE BY THE TRADE
WINDS. ELSEWHERE LINGER NW SWELL IS MAINTAINING SEAS AT OR JUST
BELOW 8 FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN 110W AND 140W.

DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET ALOFT IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER
CLOUDINESS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
12N TO 18N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W.

THROUGH LATE FRI...A WEAK MID/UPPER IMPULSE WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
N OF THE AREA INTO THE U.S. WEST COAST THROUGH LATE FRI. A
BLOCKING RIDGE WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS...REINFORCING
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ALLOWING THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS TO SPREAD EASTWARD TO 115W BY LATE FRI. THE EASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE RIDGE WILL ALSO SUPPORT FRESH NW FLOW OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND ALONG THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. VARIOUS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE WAVE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ENTER THE
AREA FROM THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH SEAS OF 12 TO 18
FT...REACHING AS FAR AS W OF A LINE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO
15N140W BY LATE FRI.

E OF 110W...AN AREA OF 7 TO 8 FT THAT IS THE REMNANT OF SHORT
PERIOD NE SWELL FROM AN EARLIER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
PULSE...MIXED WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL...PERSISTS NEAR
11N110W. THIS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 8 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY FRI.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10-15 KT LATE THU...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15-
20 KT BY EARLY FRI...THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180923
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
NEAR 06N77W TO 07N90W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ EXTENDING
WESTWARD TO BEYOND 05N140W. MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN
60 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 95W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
TO 22N120W WILL SHIFT E TODAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS
BUILDING OVER THE REGION W OF 120W. AN ASSOCIATED 1027 MB
SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N148W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO
THE CENTRAL COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A 06 UTC
ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATES FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS SOUTH
OF THE RIDGE FROM THE ITCZ TO GENERALLY 20N. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO
INDICATED A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH OF 10N EMBEDDED IN THE
ITCZ NEAR 138W. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING ALONG THE ITCZ OVER
THE PASS COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IS ENHANCING TRADE WIND FLOW TOWARD
THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH. SEVERAL ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS INDICATED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN THE AREA
OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS...LIKELY A COMBINATION OF
LINGERING LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH SEAS GENERATE BY THE TRADE
WINDS. ELSEWHERE LINGER NW SWELL IS MAINTAINING SEAS AT OR JUST
BELOW 8 FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN 110W AND 140W.

DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET ALOFT IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER
CLOUDINESS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
12N TO 18N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W.

THROUGH LATE FRI...A WEAK MID/UPPER IMPULSE WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
N OF THE AREA INTO THE U.S. WEST COAST THROUGH LATE FRI. A
BLOCKING RIDGE WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS...REINFORCING
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ALLOWING THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS TO SPREAD EASTWARD TO 115W BY LATE FRI. THE EASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE RIDGE WILL ALSO SUPPORT FRESH NW FLOW OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND ALONG THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. VARIOUS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE WAVE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ENTER THE
AREA FROM THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH SEAS OF 12 TO 18
FT...REACHING AS FAR AS W OF A LINE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO
15N140W BY LATE FRI.

E OF 110W...AN AREA OF 7 TO 8 FT THAT IS THE REMNANT OF SHORT
PERIOD NE SWELL FROM AN EARLIER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
PULSE...MIXED WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL...PERSISTS NEAR
11N110W. THIS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 8 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY FRI.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10-15 KT LATE THU...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15-
20 KT BY EARLY FRI...THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 180540
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N21W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 05N21W AND CONTINUES TO 03N30W TO 05N45W TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 27W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE BASIN. IT STARTS AS A WARM FRONT
FROM A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED OVER S TEXAS TO 29N96W TO 25N90W. A
STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM 25N90W TO 26N85W. A COLD FRONT STARTS
FROM 26N85W TO 27N82W THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE
ATLANTIC. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND BEHIND
THE STATIONARY FRONT AFFECTING THE N GULF WATERS N OF 27N
BETWEEN 88W-93W. 5-10 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ON N OF THE
FRONT WHILE 10-15 KT E TO SE WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AT UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 90W. UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE S GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE AND FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE
ALONG THE TEXAS AND NE MEXICO COASTS DUE TO RETURN SE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT
16N62W TO 15N75. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS S OF
HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 73W-77W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
PRESENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG 81W BETWEEN 10N-19N. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 63W IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE E GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE W ATLANTIC 27N80W TO 33N66W TO 42N64W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS BEHIND THE FRONT FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 76W-
79W. TO THE E...A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N55W.
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 50W SUPPORTS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IT STARTS AS A
COLD FRONT FROM 16N60W TO 26N45W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 26N45W TO 35N39W. THEN A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THAT
POINT INTO THE N ATLANTIC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 200 NM OF THESE BOUNDARIES N OF 21N BETWEEN 31W-48W. A
LARGE 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N19W.
EXPECT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 180540
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N21W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 05N21W AND CONTINUES TO 03N30W TO 05N45W TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 27W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE BASIN. IT STARTS AS A WARM FRONT
FROM A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED OVER S TEXAS TO 29N96W TO 25N90W. A
STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM 25N90W TO 26N85W. A COLD FRONT STARTS
FROM 26N85W TO 27N82W THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE
ATLANTIC. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND BEHIND
THE STATIONARY FRONT AFFECTING THE N GULF WATERS N OF 27N
BETWEEN 88W-93W. 5-10 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ON N OF THE
FRONT WHILE 10-15 KT E TO SE WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AT UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 90W. UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE S GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE AND FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE
ALONG THE TEXAS AND NE MEXICO COASTS DUE TO RETURN SE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT
16N62W TO 15N75. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS S OF
HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 73W-77W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
PRESENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG 81W BETWEEN 10N-19N. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 63W IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE E GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE W ATLANTIC 27N80W TO 33N66W TO 42N64W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS BEHIND THE FRONT FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 76W-
79W. TO THE E...A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N55W.
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 50W SUPPORTS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IT STARTS AS A
COLD FRONT FROM 16N60W TO 26N45W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 26N45W TO 35N39W. THEN A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THAT
POINT INTO THE N ATLANTIC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 200 NM OF THESE BOUNDARIES N OF 21N BETWEEN 31W-48W. A
LARGE 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N19W.
EXPECT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180333
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
NEAR 05N77W TO 07N90W TO 05N95W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH WIGGLES W BETWEEN 05-07N
TO BEYOND 140W. CONVECTION IN THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION...
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 02N-07N E OF 82W AND FROM 04N-08N
BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ REGION...SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 04N-06N BETWEEN 112W AND 116W AND FROM 06N-09N W
OF 129W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING SW FROM
32N120W TO 20N125W TO 14N135W. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN PRECEDED BY UPPER MOISTURE
THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER DENSE PLUME OF UPPER
MOISTURE ORIGINATES FROM ITCZ CONVECTION WEST OF 130W...AND
CONTINUES NE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 260 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A  LINE FROM 10N130W TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...
EVENTUALLY FANNING OUT ACROSS THE SE CONUS. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 32N115W TO 30N115W...WITH ONLY NW WINDS
OF 5-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. HOWEVER...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS W OF 106W. A POST-FRONTAL RIDGE IS
BUILDING E FROM 28N138W TO 27N119W. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IN THE TROPICS IS
SUSTAINING NE TRADES OF 20-25 KT FROM 08N TO 16N W OF 126W.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD E TO ALONG 125W OVER THE
NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10-15 KT...
BUT THE NE SWELL IS MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL
SWELL RESULTING IN A NARROW BAND OF SEAS OF 6-8 FT SW OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
13N96W TO 12N99W TO 12N101W. THESE ENHANCED SEAS WILL CONTINUE
SW AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY FRI.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10-15 KT LATE THU...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15-
20 KT BY EARLY FRI...THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXNT20 KNHC 172345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N21W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 05N21W AND CONTINUES TO 03N30W TO 05N46W TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 39W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM
FORT PIERCE TO VENICE. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 25N87W 25N30W. A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO NEAR FREEPORT TEXAS AT 29N96W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE WHOLE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION. 5-10 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ON N OF THE FRONT...WHILE 10-15 KT E
TO SE WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED
THROUGHOUT THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE S GULF.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE AND FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE ALONG THE TEXAS AND NE MEXICO COASTS DUE
TO RETURN SE LOW LEVEL FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 17N60W TO S OF HISPANIOLA AT
17N74. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM
15N-17N BETWEEN 73W-77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE ALONG
THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 80W-
84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS OVER THE FRONT AND SW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO FULLY DISSIPATE.

HISPANIOLA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS S OF THE
ISLAND WITH CONVECTION. EXPECT FAIR WEATHER OVER THE ISLAND FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N70W
TO FORT PIERCE FLORIDA AT 27N80W. THE FRONT VOID OF
PRECIPITATION. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
30N56W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N42W TO
20N50W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 17N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN 41W-48W. A LARGE
1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE AZORES NEAR 39N20W. OF NOTE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N50W
ENHANCING CONVECTION E OF THE CENTER. EXPECT THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
...WHILE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY WITH
CONTINUED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 172345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N21W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 05N21W AND CONTINUES TO 03N30W TO 05N46W TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 39W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM
FORT PIERCE TO VENICE. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 25N87W 25N30W. A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO NEAR FREEPORT TEXAS AT 29N96W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE WHOLE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION. 5-10 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ON N OF THE FRONT...WHILE 10-15 KT E
TO SE WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED
THROUGHOUT THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE S GULF.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE AND FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE ALONG THE TEXAS AND NE MEXICO COASTS DUE
TO RETURN SE LOW LEVEL FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 17N60W TO S OF HISPANIOLA AT
17N74. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM
15N-17N BETWEEN 73W-77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE ALONG
THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 80W-
84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS OVER THE FRONT AND SW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO FULLY DISSIPATE.

HISPANIOLA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS S OF THE
ISLAND WITH CONVECTION. EXPECT FAIR WEATHER OVER THE ISLAND FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N70W
TO FORT PIERCE FLORIDA AT 27N80W. THE FRONT VOID OF
PRECIPITATION. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
30N56W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N42W TO
20N50W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 17N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN 41W-48W. A LARGE
1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE AZORES NEAR 39N20W. OF NOTE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N50W
ENHANCING CONVECTION E OF THE CENTER. EXPECT THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
...WHILE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY WITH
CONTINUED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172150
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 06N78W TO 07N91W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH WIGGLES W BETWEEN 05-07N TO BEYOND
140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS FLARED
OVER AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM 03.5N78W TO 07N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 05N88W TO 06N95W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N114W
TO 21N120W TO 12N136W. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING
THROUGH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN PRECEDED BY UPPER MOISTURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER DENSE PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE
ORIGINATES FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 130-165W...AND CONTINUES
NE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 10N130W TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...EVENTUALLY FANNING
OUT ACROSS THE SE CONUS. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IS
DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 28N124W...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-
15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES
TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN
WATERS WATERS W OF 106W. A POST-FRONTAL RIDGE IS BUILDING E FROM
28N140W TO 26N116W. NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE ALL TO W OF 130W.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD E TO ALONG 125W OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT...
BUT THE NE SWELL IS MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL
SWELL RESULTING IN A NARROW BAND OF SEAS OF 6-8 FT SW OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE ENHANCED SEAS WILL CONTINUE SW AND
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT LATE IN THE WEEK. EXPECT LATE NIGHT
PULSES TO 20 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY FRI.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10-15 KT LATE THU...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15-
20 KT BY EARLY FRI...AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172150
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 06N78W TO 07N91W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH WIGGLES W BETWEEN 05-07N TO BEYOND
140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS FLARED
OVER AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM 03.5N78W TO 07N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 05N88W TO 06N95W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N114W
TO 21N120W TO 12N136W. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING
THROUGH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN PRECEDED BY UPPER MOISTURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER DENSE PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE
ORIGINATES FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 130-165W...AND CONTINUES
NE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 10N130W TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...EVENTUALLY FANNING
OUT ACROSS THE SE CONUS. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IS
DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 28N124W...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-
15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES
TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN
WATERS WATERS W OF 106W. A POST-FRONTAL RIDGE IS BUILDING E FROM
28N140W TO 26N116W. NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE ALL TO W OF 130W.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD E TO ALONG 125W OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT...
BUT THE NE SWELL IS MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL
SWELL RESULTING IN A NARROW BAND OF SEAS OF 6-8 FT SW OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE ENHANCED SEAS WILL CONTINUE SW AND
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT LATE IN THE WEEK. EXPECT LATE NIGHT
PULSES TO 20 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY FRI.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10-15 KT LATE THU...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15-
20 KT BY EARLY FRI...AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172150
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 06N78W TO 07N91W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH WIGGLES W BETWEEN 05-07N TO BEYOND
140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS FLARED
OVER AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM 03.5N78W TO 07N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 05N88W TO 06N95W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N114W
TO 21N120W TO 12N136W. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING
THROUGH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN PRECEDED BY UPPER MOISTURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER DENSE PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE
ORIGINATES FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 130-165W...AND CONTINUES
NE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 10N130W TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...EVENTUALLY FANNING
OUT ACROSS THE SE CONUS. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IS
DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 28N124W...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-
15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES
TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN
WATERS WATERS W OF 106W. A POST-FRONTAL RIDGE IS BUILDING E FROM
28N140W TO 26N116W. NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE ALL TO W OF 130W.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD E TO ALONG 125W OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT...
BUT THE NE SWELL IS MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL
SWELL RESULTING IN A NARROW BAND OF SEAS OF 6-8 FT SW OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE ENHANCED SEAS WILL CONTINUE SW AND
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT LATE IN THE WEEK. EXPECT LATE NIGHT
PULSES TO 20 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY FRI.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10-15 KT LATE THU...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15-
20 KT BY EARLY FRI...AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172150
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 06N78W TO 07N91W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH WIGGLES W BETWEEN 05-07N TO BEYOND
140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS FLARED
OVER AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM 03.5N78W TO 07N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 05N88W TO 06N95W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N114W
TO 21N120W TO 12N136W. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING
THROUGH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN PRECEDED BY UPPER MOISTURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER DENSE PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE
ORIGINATES FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 130-165W...AND CONTINUES
NE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 10N130W TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...EVENTUALLY FANNING
OUT ACROSS THE SE CONUS. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IS
DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 28N124W...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-
15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES
TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN
WATERS WATERS W OF 106W. A POST-FRONTAL RIDGE IS BUILDING E FROM
28N140W TO 26N116W. NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE ALL TO W OF 130W.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD E TO ALONG 125W OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT...
BUT THE NE SWELL IS MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL
SWELL RESULTING IN A NARROW BAND OF SEAS OF 6-8 FT SW OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE ENHANCED SEAS WILL CONTINUE SW AND
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT LATE IN THE WEEK. EXPECT LATE NIGHT
PULSES TO 20 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY FRI.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10-15 KT LATE THU...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15-
20 KT BY EARLY FRI...AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

$$
NELSON



000
AXNT20 KNHC 171741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ FROM 7N12W TO 4N45W THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT
2N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 31W-
38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM TAMPA BAY THE N MEXICO COAST
NEAR 25N97W. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THE FRONT WITH ONLY
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT. 10-15 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAINLY E OF 90W. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE GULF. A STRONG JETSTREAM
IS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. OTHERWISE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO CONTINUE MOVING S ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REACHING SOUTH
FLORIDA WHILE ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N62W
TO JUST S OF HAITI NEAR 17N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE COAST OF HAITI. TRADES ARE 20-25 KT ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS PREVAILING OVER THE CARIBBEAN
PRODUCING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE BASIN
EXCEPT OVER THE FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONTS TO WEAKEN.

HISPANIOLA...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES S OF THE ISLAND KEEPING THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N73W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM  E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. A  1021
MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 30N59W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AXIS N OF 20N ALONG 55W IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N42W TO 20N52W TO TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 16N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 20N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT
TO CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 171741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ FROM 7N12W TO 4N45W THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT
2N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 31W-
38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM TAMPA BAY THE N MEXICO COAST
NEAR 25N97W. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THE FRONT WITH ONLY
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT. 10-15 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAINLY E OF 90W. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE GULF. A STRONG JETSTREAM
IS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. OTHERWISE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO CONTINUE MOVING S ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REACHING SOUTH
FLORIDA WHILE ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N62W
TO JUST S OF HAITI NEAR 17N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE COAST OF HAITI. TRADES ARE 20-25 KT ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS PREVAILING OVER THE CARIBBEAN
PRODUCING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE BASIN
EXCEPT OVER THE FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONTS TO WEAKEN.

HISPANIOLA...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES S OF THE ISLAND KEEPING THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N73W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM  E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. A  1021
MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 30N59W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AXIS N OF 20N ALONG 55W IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N42W TO 20N52W TO TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 16N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 20N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT
TO CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 171741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ FROM 7N12W TO 4N45W THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT
2N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 31W-
38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM TAMPA BAY THE N MEXICO COAST
NEAR 25N97W. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THE FRONT WITH ONLY
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT. 10-15 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAINLY E OF 90W. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE GULF. A STRONG JETSTREAM
IS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. OTHERWISE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO CONTINUE MOVING S ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REACHING SOUTH
FLORIDA WHILE ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N62W
TO JUST S OF HAITI NEAR 17N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE COAST OF HAITI. TRADES ARE 20-25 KT ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS PREVAILING OVER THE CARIBBEAN
PRODUCING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE BASIN
EXCEPT OVER THE FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONTS TO WEAKEN.

HISPANIOLA...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES S OF THE ISLAND KEEPING THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N73W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM  E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. A  1021
MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 30N59W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AXIS N OF 20N ALONG 55W IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N42W TO 20N52W TO TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 16N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 20N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT
TO CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 171741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ FROM 7N12W TO 4N45W THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT
2N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 31W-
38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM TAMPA BAY THE N MEXICO COAST
NEAR 25N97W. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THE FRONT WITH ONLY
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT. 10-15 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAINLY E OF 90W. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE GULF. A STRONG JETSTREAM
IS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. OTHERWISE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO CONTINUE MOVING S ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REACHING SOUTH
FLORIDA WHILE ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N62W
TO JUST S OF HAITI NEAR 17N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE COAST OF HAITI. TRADES ARE 20-25 KT ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS PREVAILING OVER THE CARIBBEAN
PRODUCING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE BASIN
EXCEPT OVER THE FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONTS TO WEAKEN.

HISPANIOLA...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES S OF THE ISLAND KEEPING THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N73W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM  E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. A  1021
MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 30N59W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AXIS N OF 20N ALONG 55W IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N42W TO 20N52W TO TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 16N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 20N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT
TO CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171502
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 06.5N91W WHERE LOW
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO
BEYOND 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB CENTERED W OF THE AREA NEAR 29N151W
EXTENDS RIDGE ESE TO NEAR 25N120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS
MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF THE ITCZ...FROM 10N TO
15N W OF 130W. SUCCESSIVE GROUPS OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL OUT OF
THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC ARE MAINTAINING SEAS TO 9 FT OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION W OF 110W. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL
EXPAND AND COVER FROM FROM 09N TO 20N W OF 129W BY FRI MORNING.
THE NW SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AND COVERAGE OF SEAS 8 FT OR
GREATER WILL DECREASE BY FRI MORNING. A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS
WILL ENTER THE NW WATERS LATE THU...WITH SEAS REACHING NEAR 13
FT EARLY FRI MORNING.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STRING TO NEAR GALE WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8
FT CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING. THE HIGH
PRES N OF THE AREA SUPPORTING THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX...WITH WINDS
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8
FT THIS AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL PULSES OF NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI MORNING.

$$
AL



000
AXNT20 KNHC 171125
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N21W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 05N21W AND CONTINUES TO 05N35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA AT 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N
BETWEEN 16W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AT 28N83W TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 26N90W TO N MEXICO NEAR 25N97W. NO CONVECTION IS
RELATED TO THESE BOUNDARIES. 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAINLY E OF 90W WHILE 5-10 KT EASTERLY
WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT AND W OF 90W. AT UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL
FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING S ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE BASIN FROM
17N62W TO 16N67W. FROM THIS LAST POINT THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO 17N75W. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM 17N75W TO
10N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG THE SHEAR
LINE FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 79W-83W WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT S OF HISPANIOLA. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF THE SHEARLINE WHILE 5-15 KT
EASTERLIES ARE E OF THE SHEARLINE. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS
PREVAILING OVER THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SW TO W FLOW. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT OVER THE
FRONTS AND SHEARLINE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONTS TO WEAKEN AND THE SHEARLINE WILL PERSIST ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES S OF THE ISLAND KEEPING THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 40N72W WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE 40N72W TO 29N81W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 34N
BETWEEN 66W-73W. A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ARE
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TO THE E...AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS NEAR 49W IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT BEGINS AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE N ATLANTIC TO
30N43W TO 22N50W TO 17N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORTED BY UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
MAINLY N OF 23N BETWEEN 37W-44W. A 1037 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 39N22W SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTS TO
CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 171125
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N21W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 05N21W AND CONTINUES TO 05N35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA AT 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N
BETWEEN 16W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AT 28N83W TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 26N90W TO N MEXICO NEAR 25N97W. NO CONVECTION IS
RELATED TO THESE BOUNDARIES. 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAINLY E OF 90W WHILE 5-10 KT EASTERLY
WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT AND W OF 90W. AT UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL
FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING S ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE BASIN FROM
17N62W TO 16N67W. FROM THIS LAST POINT THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO 17N75W. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM 17N75W TO
10N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG THE SHEAR
LINE FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 79W-83W WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT S OF HISPANIOLA. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF THE SHEARLINE WHILE 5-15 KT
EASTERLIES ARE E OF THE SHEARLINE. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS
PREVAILING OVER THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SW TO W FLOW. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT OVER THE
FRONTS AND SHEARLINE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONTS TO WEAKEN AND THE SHEARLINE WILL PERSIST ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES S OF THE ISLAND KEEPING THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 40N72W WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE 40N72W TO 29N81W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 34N
BETWEEN 66W-73W. A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ARE
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TO THE E...AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS NEAR 49W IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT BEGINS AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE N ATLANTIC TO
30N43W TO 22N50W TO 17N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORTED BY UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
MAINLY N OF 23N BETWEEN 37W-44W. A 1037 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 39N22W SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTS TO
CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170944
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW COSTA RICA NEAR 09N84W TO
07N90W...THEN TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ NEAR 06N90W. THE ITCZ
REACHES FROM 06N90W TO 04N95W TO 06N105W TO 08N130W TO
BEYOND 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED.

...DISCUSSION...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION N OF 20N W
OF 120W BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS FROM ROUGHLY 10N TO 20N W OF
120W. A 0645 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED A SURFACE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG ROUGHLY 130W FROM 06N TO 10N. A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH...WHERE FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE CONVERGING INTO THE
ITCZ. SUCCESSIVE GROUPS OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL OUT OF THE N
CENTRAL PACIFIC ARE MAINTAINING SEAS OF TO 9 FT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION BETWEEN 110W AND 140W.

THE COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE ITCZ AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING TO ITS NORTH WILL RESULT IN STRONG TRADE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 135W. THIS AREA WILL
GROW IN SIZE THROUGH THU AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS...MIXING NE
WIND WAVES WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL.

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 17N140W. A
SOUTHERN STREAM JET MAX IS PRESENT FROM 16N120W FLOWING NE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA INTO N CENTRAL
MEXICO. DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE JET...DELIVERING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE PACIFIC WATERS OFF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. REINFORCING
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DIG
INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH LATE TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH MOVE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND
ADJACENT WATERS TODAY BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE TONIGHT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A 03 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED
WINDS TO 30 KT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BETWEEN
HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND RELATIVELY LOWER
PRES FARTHER SOUTH...ENHANCED IN PART BY LOCAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THE
HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY ALLOWING THE
GRADIENT TO RELAX...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 8 FT THIS MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES
ENCOUNTER LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170944
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW COSTA RICA NEAR 09N84W TO
07N90W...THEN TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ NEAR 06N90W. THE ITCZ
REACHES FROM 06N90W TO 04N95W TO 06N105W TO 08N130W TO
BEYOND 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED.

...DISCUSSION...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION N OF 20N W
OF 120W BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS FROM ROUGHLY 10N TO 20N W OF
120W. A 0645 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED A SURFACE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG ROUGHLY 130W FROM 06N TO 10N. A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH...WHERE FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE CONVERGING INTO THE
ITCZ. SUCCESSIVE GROUPS OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL OUT OF THE N
CENTRAL PACIFIC ARE MAINTAINING SEAS OF TO 9 FT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION BETWEEN 110W AND 140W.

THE COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE ITCZ AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING TO ITS NORTH WILL RESULT IN STRONG TRADE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 135W. THIS AREA WILL
GROW IN SIZE THROUGH THU AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS...MIXING NE
WIND WAVES WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL.

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 17N140W. A
SOUTHERN STREAM JET MAX IS PRESENT FROM 16N120W FLOWING NE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA INTO N CENTRAL
MEXICO. DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE JET...DELIVERING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE PACIFIC WATERS OFF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. REINFORCING
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DIG
INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH LATE TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH MOVE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND
ADJACENT WATERS TODAY BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE TONIGHT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A 03 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED
WINDS TO 30 KT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BETWEEN
HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND RELATIVELY LOWER
PRES FARTHER SOUTH...ENHANCED IN PART BY LOCAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THE
HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY ALLOWING THE
GRADIENT TO RELAX...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 8 FT THIS MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES
ENCOUNTER LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170944
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW COSTA RICA NEAR 09N84W TO
07N90W...THEN TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ NEAR 06N90W. THE ITCZ
REACHES FROM 06N90W TO 04N95W TO 06N105W TO 08N130W TO
BEYOND 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED.

...DISCUSSION...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION N OF 20N W
OF 120W BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS FROM ROUGHLY 10N TO 20N W OF
120W. A 0645 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED A SURFACE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG ROUGHLY 130W FROM 06N TO 10N. A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH...WHERE FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE CONVERGING INTO THE
ITCZ. SUCCESSIVE GROUPS OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL OUT OF THE N
CENTRAL PACIFIC ARE MAINTAINING SEAS OF TO 9 FT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION BETWEEN 110W AND 140W.

THE COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE ITCZ AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING TO ITS NORTH WILL RESULT IN STRONG TRADE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 135W. THIS AREA WILL
GROW IN SIZE THROUGH THU AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS...MIXING NE
WIND WAVES WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL.

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 17N140W. A
SOUTHERN STREAM JET MAX IS PRESENT FROM 16N120W FLOWING NE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA INTO N CENTRAL
MEXICO. DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE JET...DELIVERING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE PACIFIC WATERS OFF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. REINFORCING
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DIG
INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH LATE TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH MOVE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND
ADJACENT WATERS TODAY BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE TONIGHT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A 03 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED
WINDS TO 30 KT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BETWEEN
HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND RELATIVELY LOWER
PRES FARTHER SOUTH...ENHANCED IN PART BY LOCAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THE
HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY ALLOWING THE
GRADIENT TO RELAX...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 8 FT THIS MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES
ENCOUNTER LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170944
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW COSTA RICA NEAR 09N84W TO
07N90W...THEN TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ NEAR 06N90W. THE ITCZ
REACHES FROM 06N90W TO 04N95W TO 06N105W TO 08N130W TO
BEYOND 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED.

...DISCUSSION...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION N OF 20N W
OF 120W BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS FROM ROUGHLY 10N TO 20N W OF
120W. A 0645 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED A SURFACE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG ROUGHLY 130W FROM 06N TO 10N. A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH...WHERE FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE CONVERGING INTO THE
ITCZ. SUCCESSIVE GROUPS OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL OUT OF THE N
CENTRAL PACIFIC ARE MAINTAINING SEAS OF TO 9 FT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION BETWEEN 110W AND 140W.

THE COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE ITCZ AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING TO ITS NORTH WILL RESULT IN STRONG TRADE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 135W. THIS AREA WILL
GROW IN SIZE THROUGH THU AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS...MIXING NE
WIND WAVES WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL.

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 17N140W. A
SOUTHERN STREAM JET MAX IS PRESENT FROM 16N120W FLOWING NE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA INTO N CENTRAL
MEXICO. DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE JET...DELIVERING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE PACIFIC WATERS OFF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. REINFORCING
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DIG
INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH LATE TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH MOVE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND
ADJACENT WATERS TODAY BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE TONIGHT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A 03 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED
WINDS TO 30 KT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BETWEEN
HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND RELATIVELY LOWER
PRES FARTHER SOUTH...ENHANCED IN PART BY LOCAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THE
HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY ALLOWING THE
GRADIENT TO RELAX...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 8 FT THIS MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES
ENCOUNTER LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 170546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N14W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 05N14W AND CONTINUES TO 07N30W TO 05N33W TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 02N-10N BETWEEN 18W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 30N84W TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N89W TO 25N96W. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 25N96W TO N MEXICO NEAR 28N103W. NO
CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THESE BOUNDARIES. 10-15 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE 5-10 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE
S OF THE FRONT. AT UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE MOVING S ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REACHING SOUTH
FLORIDA WHILE ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE E PORTION OF THE BASIN FROM 18N63W TO 18N76W. A SHEAR
LINE EXTENDS FROM 18N76W TO 10N82W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS PRESENT ALONG THE SHEAR LINE AND N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 71W-77W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF THE SHEARLINE WHILE 5-15 KT EASTERLIES ARE
E OF THE SHEARLINE. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PREVAILING OVER
THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SW TO W FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT OVER THE FRONT AND
SHEARLINE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO WEAKEN
AND THE SHEARLINE PERSISTING ENHANCING CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS S OF THE ISLAND KEEPING
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A PAIR OF 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ARE ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AXIS NEAR 51W IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
BEGINS AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE N ATLANTIC AND THEN BECOMES
STATIONARY FROM 30N44W TO 18N65W INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORTED BY
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAINLY N OF 21N BETWEEN 38W-44W. A 1039
MB HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR
39N23W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE FRONT TO PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION.
A NEW COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE W ATLANTIC AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 170546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N14W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 05N14W AND CONTINUES TO 07N30W TO 05N33W TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 02N-10N BETWEEN 18W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 30N84W TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N89W TO 25N96W. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 25N96W TO N MEXICO NEAR 28N103W. NO
CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THESE BOUNDARIES. 10-15 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE 5-10 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE
S OF THE FRONT. AT UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE MOVING S ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REACHING SOUTH
FLORIDA WHILE ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE E PORTION OF THE BASIN FROM 18N63W TO 18N76W. A SHEAR
LINE EXTENDS FROM 18N76W TO 10N82W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS PRESENT ALONG THE SHEAR LINE AND N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 71W-77W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF THE SHEARLINE WHILE 5-15 KT EASTERLIES ARE
E OF THE SHEARLINE. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PREVAILING OVER
THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SW TO W FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT OVER THE FRONT AND
SHEARLINE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO WEAKEN
AND THE SHEARLINE PERSISTING ENHANCING CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS S OF THE ISLAND KEEPING
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A PAIR OF 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ARE ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AXIS NEAR 51W IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
BEGINS AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE N ATLANTIC AND THEN BECOMES
STATIONARY FROM 30N44W TO 18N65W INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORTED BY
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAINLY N OF 21N BETWEEN 38W-44W. A 1039
MB HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR
39N23W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE FRONT TO PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION.
A NEW COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE W ATLANTIC AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170338
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170338
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170338
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170338
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170338
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170338
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170338
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170338
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170338
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170338
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170338
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170338
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170338
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170338
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170338
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170338
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170303
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170303
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN.

$$
RAMOS/NELSON


000
AXNT20 KNHC 162324
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N16W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 05N16W AND CONTINUES TO 07N30W TO 04N40W TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 17W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AT 30N84W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 27N90W TO JUST
S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 25N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 NM OF THE FRONT. 15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 5-
10 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
SOUTH FLORIDA TO N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 19N60W TO S OF
HISPANIOLA AT 17N75W. A SHEARLINE CONTINUES FROM 17N75W TO
JAMAICA AT 18N78W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN AT 10N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FROM
17N-20N BETWEEN 72W-77W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 80W-83W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE.
15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NW OF THE
SHEARLINE. 5-15 KT EASTERLIES ARE SE OF THE SHEARLINE. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...SLIGHT RIDGING IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SW
TO W FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER
THE FRONT AND SHEARLINE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TAIL END OF THE FRONT TO WEAKEN WITH THE SHEARLINE PERSISTING
WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS S
OF THE ISLAND WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS
OVER HAITI. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST ESPECIALLY S OF HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

FAIR WEATHER IS OVER NW ATLANTIC AND BAHAMAS. AS OF 2100 UTC...A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT
30N44W TO 24N50W TO NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 19N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT N OF 22N BETWEEN
40W-46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE
FRONT. A LARGE 1038 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR
40N24W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE ATLANTIC SUPPORTING THE FRONT N OF 25N BETWEEN 45W-70W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-45W ENHANCING
CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FRONT TO PERSIST WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO
EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO BE THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 30N74W
TO S FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 162324
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N16W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 05N16W AND CONTINUES TO 07N30W TO 04N40W TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 17W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AT 30N84W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 27N90W TO JUST
S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 25N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 NM OF THE FRONT. 15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 5-
10 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
SOUTH FLORIDA TO N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 19N60W TO S OF
HISPANIOLA AT 17N75W. A SHEARLINE CONTINUES FROM 17N75W TO
JAMAICA AT 18N78W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN AT 10N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FROM
17N-20N BETWEEN 72W-77W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 80W-83W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE.
15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NW OF THE
SHEARLINE. 5-15 KT EASTERLIES ARE SE OF THE SHEARLINE. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...SLIGHT RIDGING IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SW
TO W FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER
THE FRONT AND SHEARLINE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TAIL END OF THE FRONT TO WEAKEN WITH THE SHEARLINE PERSISTING
WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS S
OF THE ISLAND WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS
OVER HAITI. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST ESPECIALLY S OF HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

FAIR WEATHER IS OVER NW ATLANTIC AND BAHAMAS. AS OF 2100 UTC...A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT
30N44W TO 24N50W TO NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 19N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT N OF 22N BETWEEN
40W-46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE
FRONT. A LARGE 1038 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR
40N24W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE ATLANTIC SUPPORTING THE FRONT N OF 25N BETWEEN 45W-70W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-45W ENHANCING
CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FRONT TO PERSIST WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO
EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO BE THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 30N74W
TO S FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162149
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W...
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N128W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 06N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 180 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ
BETWEEN 86-106W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N113W TO
07N120W...AND ALSO WITHIN 45 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 11-18N BETWEEN 112-120W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N119W TO 23N118W 15N130W. AT THE SURFACE AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N118W TO 23N125W TO
20N140W...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF
THIS TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 23N112W TO 00N133W. THE SURFACE FRONT
SHOULD LOSE IDENTITY LATE TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING
TO PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 105W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 120W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER LONG
PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE MEXICAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST TO THE S OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY THU.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10-15 KT LATE THU...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15-
20 KT ON FRI-SAT AND 20-25 KT LATE SUN.

$$
NELSON/RAMOS



000
AXNT20 KNHC 161706
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 06N16W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 06N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N30W TO 4N48W. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 15W AND
33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 33W
AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THAT EXTENDS S TO THE NE
GULF SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR PENSACOLA AT
30N87W TO 28N91W TO THE TX COAST NEAR 26N97W. NW WINDS AROUND 20
KT ARE NW OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM SE
OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE GULF SE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AS WELL AS VARIABLE WINDS MAINLY
UNDER 10 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BASIN. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WITH SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A PERSISTENT SHEAR LINE CONTINUES FROM HAITI AND THE CARIBBEAN
NEAR 18N75W TO JAMAICA TO 15N81W TO 10N83W. NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KT ARE NW OF THE SHEAR LINE. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT ARE
IMMEDIATELY SE OF THE SHEAR LINE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR LINE
AXIS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO SUPPORTING ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN
76W AND 80W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT BEFORE PASSING OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...TO
PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN BASIN AWAY FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH CONVECTION...WHERE
THE SHEAR LINE CURRENTLY EXISTS. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

A SHEAR LINE OVER HAITI AND A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ARE SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. ALTHOUGH THESE
FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...REMNANT MOISTURE OVER HISPANIOLA WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 54W IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A
PAIR OF COLD FRONTS FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE N CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE WESTERNMOST COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE N CENTRAL
ATLANTIC  31N48W TO 26N56W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. THE SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE N CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO 31N44W TO 25N49W TO 20N57W. THE COLD FRONT THEN
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 20N57W WHERE IT CONTINUES
TO NEAR 18N63W BEFORE PASSING OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N
TO 31N BETWEEN 41W AND 47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTS S OF 24N. A 1040MB AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NE OF THE AZORES DOMINATES THE E
ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE WHILE THE COLD FRONTS MERGE AND CONTINUE EAST TO NEAR
30N43W TO 22N48W WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 161706
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 06N16W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 06N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N30W TO 4N48W. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 15W AND
33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 33W
AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THAT EXTENDS S TO THE NE
GULF SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR PENSACOLA AT
30N87W TO 28N91W TO THE TX COAST NEAR 26N97W. NW WINDS AROUND 20
KT ARE NW OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM SE
OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE GULF SE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AS WELL AS VARIABLE WINDS MAINLY
UNDER 10 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BASIN. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WITH SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A PERSISTENT SHEAR LINE CONTINUES FROM HAITI AND THE CARIBBEAN
NEAR 18N75W TO JAMAICA TO 15N81W TO 10N83W. NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KT ARE NW OF THE SHEAR LINE. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT ARE
IMMEDIATELY SE OF THE SHEAR LINE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR LINE
AXIS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO SUPPORTING ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN
76W AND 80W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT BEFORE PASSING OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...TO
PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN BASIN AWAY FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH CONVECTION...WHERE
THE SHEAR LINE CURRENTLY EXISTS. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

A SHEAR LINE OVER HAITI AND A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ARE SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. ALTHOUGH THESE
FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...REMNANT MOISTURE OVER HISPANIOLA WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 54W IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A
PAIR OF COLD FRONTS FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE N CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE WESTERNMOST COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE N CENTRAL
ATLANTIC  31N48W TO 26N56W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. THE SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE N CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO 31N44W TO 25N49W TO 20N57W. THE COLD FRONT THEN
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 20N57W WHERE IT CONTINUES
TO NEAR 18N63W BEFORE PASSING OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N
TO 31N BETWEEN 41W AND 47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTS S OF 24N. A 1040MB AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NE OF THE AZORES DOMINATES THE E
ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE WHILE THE COLD FRONTS MERGE AND CONTINUE EAST TO NEAR
30N43W TO 22N48W WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO




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