Home > Products > National Data >
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271539
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAR 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FOLLOWED BY GALE FORCE WINDS. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TODAY. HIGH
PRES IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
QUICKLY BLASTING ACROSS THE CHIVELAS PASS AND THROUGH THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE...30-40 KT...EARLY THIS EVENING WITH BUILDING SEAS
TO 16-17 FT BY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR GALE FORCE
SAT NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH WIND AND SEAS THEN SUBSIDING QUICKLY SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N93W TO 05N110W TO A 1010 MB
LOW PRES NEAR 05N107W TO 06N117W TO 05N123W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 05N123W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 101W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 110W AND
118W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 07N TO 09N
BETWEEN 127W AND 130W.

DURING MARCH AND APRIL OF EACH YEAR...A DOUBLE ITCZ IS PRESENT
IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN. THIS
MORNING...AN ACTIVE ITCZ IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG
10S82W TO 06S100W TO 3.4S110W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 30N135W TO 25N140W. AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM 30N137W TO BEYOND 21N140W SUPPORTS
THE FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS. NW
SWELL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT HAS RAISED SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT.
AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY
SAT MORNING ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE REGION. HIGH PRES BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL MOVE NE TO A POSITION NEAR 35N135W IN ABOUT 24
HOURS WHILE STRENGTHENING. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW ON SAT MORNING...PARTICULARLY FROM 14N TO 21N W
OF 132W. THESE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO
AROUND 9 FT.

A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 115W...CENTERED ON
A WEAKENING 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 30N131W. SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ IS
PROMOTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADEWINDS S OF 20N W OF
115W...WHERE SEAS ARE 7-9 FT. AN ALTIMETER PASS PROVIDED
OBSERVATIONS OF 8-11 FT SEAS ROUGHLY S OF 13N BETWEEN 120W AND
130W LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THAT
DOMINATES MOST OF THE WATERS W OF 110W. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ARE
ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

A STRONG PULSE OF CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL HAS REACHED
THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...AND COULD GENERATE
STRONG AND DANGEROUS SURF ALONG THE LOCAL COASTLINES AND REEFS.
THIS SWELL EVENT IS ALSO AFFECTING THE WATERS E OF THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS AND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THIS GAP WIND
REGION BY EARLY SUN MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271539
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAR 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FOLLOWED BY GALE FORCE WINDS. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TODAY. HIGH
PRES IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
QUICKLY BLASTING ACROSS THE CHIVELAS PASS AND THROUGH THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE...30-40 KT...EARLY THIS EVENING WITH BUILDING SEAS
TO 16-17 FT BY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR GALE FORCE
SAT NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH WIND AND SEAS THEN SUBSIDING QUICKLY SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N93W TO 05N110W TO A 1010 MB
LOW PRES NEAR 05N107W TO 06N117W TO 05N123W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 05N123W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 101W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 110W AND
118W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 07N TO 09N
BETWEEN 127W AND 130W.

DURING MARCH AND APRIL OF EACH YEAR...A DOUBLE ITCZ IS PRESENT
IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN. THIS
MORNING...AN ACTIVE ITCZ IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG
10S82W TO 06S100W TO 3.4S110W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 30N135W TO 25N140W. AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM 30N137W TO BEYOND 21N140W SUPPORTS
THE FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS. NW
SWELL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT HAS RAISED SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT.
AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY
SAT MORNING ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE REGION. HIGH PRES BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL MOVE NE TO A POSITION NEAR 35N135W IN ABOUT 24
HOURS WHILE STRENGTHENING. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW ON SAT MORNING...PARTICULARLY FROM 14N TO 21N W
OF 132W. THESE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO
AROUND 9 FT.

A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 115W...CENTERED ON
A WEAKENING 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 30N131W. SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ IS
PROMOTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADEWINDS S OF 20N W OF
115W...WHERE SEAS ARE 7-9 FT. AN ALTIMETER PASS PROVIDED
OBSERVATIONS OF 8-11 FT SEAS ROUGHLY S OF 13N BETWEEN 120W AND
130W LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THAT
DOMINATES MOST OF THE WATERS W OF 110W. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ARE
ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

A STRONG PULSE OF CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL HAS REACHED
THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...AND COULD GENERATE
STRONG AND DANGEROUS SURF ALONG THE LOCAL COASTLINES AND REEFS.
THIS SWELL EVENT IS ALSO AFFECTING THE WATERS E OF THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS AND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THIS GAP WIND
REGION BY EARLY SUN MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271539
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAR 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FOLLOWED BY GALE FORCE WINDS. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TODAY. HIGH
PRES IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
QUICKLY BLASTING ACROSS THE CHIVELAS PASS AND THROUGH THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE...30-40 KT...EARLY THIS EVENING WITH BUILDING SEAS
TO 16-17 FT BY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR GALE FORCE
SAT NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH WIND AND SEAS THEN SUBSIDING QUICKLY SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N93W TO 05N110W TO A 1010 MB
LOW PRES NEAR 05N107W TO 06N117W TO 05N123W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 05N123W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 101W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 110W AND
118W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 07N TO 09N
BETWEEN 127W AND 130W.

DURING MARCH AND APRIL OF EACH YEAR...A DOUBLE ITCZ IS PRESENT
IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN. THIS
MORNING...AN ACTIVE ITCZ IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG
10S82W TO 06S100W TO 3.4S110W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 30N135W TO 25N140W. AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM 30N137W TO BEYOND 21N140W SUPPORTS
THE FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS. NW
SWELL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT HAS RAISED SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT.
AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY
SAT MORNING ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE REGION. HIGH PRES BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL MOVE NE TO A POSITION NEAR 35N135W IN ABOUT 24
HOURS WHILE STRENGTHENING. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW ON SAT MORNING...PARTICULARLY FROM 14N TO 21N W
OF 132W. THESE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO
AROUND 9 FT.

A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 115W...CENTERED ON
A WEAKENING 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 30N131W. SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ IS
PROMOTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADEWINDS S OF 20N W OF
115W...WHERE SEAS ARE 7-9 FT. AN ALTIMETER PASS PROVIDED
OBSERVATIONS OF 8-11 FT SEAS ROUGHLY S OF 13N BETWEEN 120W AND
130W LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THAT
DOMINATES MOST OF THE WATERS W OF 110W. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ARE
ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

A STRONG PULSE OF CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL HAS REACHED
THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...AND COULD GENERATE
STRONG AND DANGEROUS SURF ALONG THE LOCAL COASTLINES AND REEFS.
THIS SWELL EVENT IS ALSO AFFECTING THE WATERS E OF THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS AND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THIS GAP WIND
REGION BY EARLY SUN MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271539
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAR 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FOLLOWED BY GALE FORCE WINDS. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TODAY. HIGH
PRES IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
QUICKLY BLASTING ACROSS THE CHIVELAS PASS AND THROUGH THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE...30-40 KT...EARLY THIS EVENING WITH BUILDING SEAS
TO 16-17 FT BY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR GALE FORCE
SAT NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH WIND AND SEAS THEN SUBSIDING QUICKLY SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N93W TO 05N110W TO A 1010 MB
LOW PRES NEAR 05N107W TO 06N117W TO 05N123W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 05N123W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 101W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 110W AND
118W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 07N TO 09N
BETWEEN 127W AND 130W.

DURING MARCH AND APRIL OF EACH YEAR...A DOUBLE ITCZ IS PRESENT
IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN. THIS
MORNING...AN ACTIVE ITCZ IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG
10S82W TO 06S100W TO 3.4S110W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 30N135W TO 25N140W. AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM 30N137W TO BEYOND 21N140W SUPPORTS
THE FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS. NW
SWELL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT HAS RAISED SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT.
AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY
SAT MORNING ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE REGION. HIGH PRES BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL MOVE NE TO A POSITION NEAR 35N135W IN ABOUT 24
HOURS WHILE STRENGTHENING. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW ON SAT MORNING...PARTICULARLY FROM 14N TO 21N W
OF 132W. THESE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO
AROUND 9 FT.

A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 115W...CENTERED ON
A WEAKENING 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 30N131W. SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ IS
PROMOTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADEWINDS S OF 20N W OF
115W...WHERE SEAS ARE 7-9 FT. AN ALTIMETER PASS PROVIDED
OBSERVATIONS OF 8-11 FT SEAS ROUGHLY S OF 13N BETWEEN 120W AND
130W LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THAT
DOMINATES MOST OF THE WATERS W OF 110W. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ARE
ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

A STRONG PULSE OF CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL HAS REACHED
THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...AND COULD GENERATE
STRONG AND DANGEROUS SURF ALONG THE LOCAL COASTLINES AND REEFS.
THIS SWELL EVENT IS ALSO AFFECTING THE WATERS E OF THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS AND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THIS GAP WIND
REGION BY EARLY SUN MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271530
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAR 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FOLLOWED BY GALE FORCE WINDS. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TODAY. HIGH
PRES IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
QUICKLY BLASTING ACROSS THE CHIVELAS PASS AND THROUGH THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE...30-40 KT...EARLY THIS EVENING WITH BUILDING SEAS
TO 16-17 FT BY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR GALE FORCE
SAT NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH WIND AND SEAS THEN SUBSIDING QUICKLY SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N93W TO 05N110W TO A 1010 MB
LOW PRES NEAR 05N107W TO 06N117W TO 05N123W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 05N123W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 101W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 110W AND
118W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 07N TO 09N
BETWEEN 127W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 30N135W TO 25N140W. AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM 30N137W TO BEYOND 21N140W SUPPORTS
THE FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS. NW
SWELL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT HAS RAISED SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT.
AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY
SAT MORNING ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE REGION. HIGH PRES BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL MOVE NE TO A POSITION NEAR 35N135W IN ABOUT 24
HOURS WHILE STRENGTHENING. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW ON SAT MORNING...PARTICULARLY FROM 14N TO 21N W
OF 132W. THESE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO
AROUND 9 FT.

A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 115W...CENTERED ON
A WEAKENING 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 30N131W. SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ IS
PROMOTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADEWINDS S OF 20N W OF
115W...WHERE SEAS ARE 7-9 FT. AN ALTIMETER PASS PROVIDED
OBSERVATIONS OF 8-11 FT SEAS ROUGHLY S OF 13N BETWEEN 120W AND
130W LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THAT
DOMINATES MOST OF THE WATERS W OF 110W. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ARE
ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

A STRONG PULSE OF CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL HAS REACHED
THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...AND COULD GENERATE
STRONG AND DANGEROUS SURF ALONG THE LOCAL COASTLINES AND REEFS.
THIS SWELL EVENT IS ALSO AFFECTING THE WATERS E OF THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS AND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THIS GAP WIND
REGION BY EARLY SUN MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271530
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAR 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FOLLOWED BY GALE FORCE WINDS. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TODAY. HIGH
PRES IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
QUICKLY BLASTING ACROSS THE CHIVELAS PASS AND THROUGH THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE...30-40 KT...EARLY THIS EVENING WITH BUILDING SEAS
TO 16-17 FT BY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR GALE FORCE
SAT NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH WIND AND SEAS THEN SUBSIDING QUICKLY SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N93W TO 05N110W TO A 1010 MB
LOW PRES NEAR 05N107W TO 06N117W TO 05N123W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 05N123W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 101W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 110W AND
118W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 07N TO 09N
BETWEEN 127W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 30N135W TO 25N140W. AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM 30N137W TO BEYOND 21N140W SUPPORTS
THE FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS. NW
SWELL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT HAS RAISED SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT.
AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY
SAT MORNING ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE REGION. HIGH PRES BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL MOVE NE TO A POSITION NEAR 35N135W IN ABOUT 24
HOURS WHILE STRENGTHENING. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW ON SAT MORNING...PARTICULARLY FROM 14N TO 21N W
OF 132W. THESE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO
AROUND 9 FT.

A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 115W...CENTERED ON
A WEAKENING 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 30N131W. SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ IS
PROMOTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADEWINDS S OF 20N W OF
115W...WHERE SEAS ARE 7-9 FT. AN ALTIMETER PASS PROVIDED
OBSERVATIONS OF 8-11 FT SEAS ROUGHLY S OF 13N BETWEEN 120W AND
130W LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THAT
DOMINATES MOST OF THE WATERS W OF 110W. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ARE
ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

A STRONG PULSE OF CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL HAS REACHED
THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...AND COULD GENERATE
STRONG AND DANGEROUS SURF ALONG THE LOCAL COASTLINES AND REEFS.
THIS SWELL EVENT IS ALSO AFFECTING THE WATERS E OF THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS AND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THIS GAP WIND
REGION BY EARLY SUN MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.

$$
GR


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 271346
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 04W ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
1145 PM CHST FRI MAR 27 2015

...TROPICAL STORM 04W STILL HEADING WEST-NORTHWEST...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK...FANANU
AND ULUL OF CHUUK STATE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...7.5N 156.2E

ABOUT 240 MILES EAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 290 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 295 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 455 MILES EAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 490 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 880 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 04W WILL
BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.5 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.2 EAST...MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 04W IS EXPECTED TO TURN
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 04W IS STILL
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 AM.

$$

MCELROY



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 271346
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 04W ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
1145 PM CHST FRI MAR 27 2015

...TROPICAL STORM 04W STILL HEADING WEST-NORTHWEST...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK...FANANU
AND ULUL OF CHUUK STATE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...7.5N 156.2E

ABOUT 240 MILES EAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 290 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 295 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 455 MILES EAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 490 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 880 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 04W WILL
BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.5 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.2 EAST...MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 04W IS EXPECTED TO TURN
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 04W IS STILL
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 AM.

$$

MCELROY



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 271346
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 04W ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
1145 PM CHST FRI MAR 27 2015

...TROPICAL STORM 04W STILL HEADING WEST-NORTHWEST...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK...FANANU
AND ULUL OF CHUUK STATE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...7.5N 156.2E

ABOUT 240 MILES EAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 290 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 295 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 455 MILES EAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 490 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 880 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 04W WILL
BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.5 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.2 EAST...MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 04W IS EXPECTED TO TURN
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 04W IS STILL
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 AM.

$$

MCELROY



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 271346
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 04W ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
1145 PM CHST FRI MAR 27 2015

...TROPICAL STORM 04W STILL HEADING WEST-NORTHWEST...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK...FANANU
AND ULUL OF CHUUK STATE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...7.5N 156.2E

ABOUT 240 MILES EAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 290 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 295 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 455 MILES EAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 490 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 880 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 04W WILL
BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.5 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.2 EAST...MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 04W IS EXPECTED TO TURN
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 04W IS STILL
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 AM.

$$

MCELROY



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 271247
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 04W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
1100 PM CHST FRI MAR 27 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W NOW A TROPICAL STORM...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK...FANANU
AND ULUL OF CHUUK STATE.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...7.4N 156.6E

ABOUT 265 MILES EAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 320 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 320 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 480 MILES EAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 520 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 905 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 04W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.6 EAST...MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 04W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON
THIS GENERAL COURSE AND SPEED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 04W IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 5 AM.

$$

MCELROY


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 271247
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 04W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
1100 PM CHST FRI MAR 27 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W NOW A TROPICAL STORM...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK...FANANU
AND ULUL OF CHUUK STATE.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...7.4N 156.6E

ABOUT 265 MILES EAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 320 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 320 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 480 MILES EAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 520 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 905 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 04W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.6 EAST...MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 04W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON
THIS GENERAL COURSE AND SPEED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 04W IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 5 AM.

$$

MCELROY



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W
TO 26N92W TO THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 21N97W. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
MATERIALIZE BY 27/1200 UTC ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF WATERS
S OF 21N W OF 95W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
07N21W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N
BETWEEN 04W-13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION S-SW TO EASTERN
TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1007 MB LOW
CENTERED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE LOW CENTER SW TO 26N92W TO THE EAST
COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 21N97W. WITH THE SURFACE FORCING IN PLACE
AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE INCREASING ACROSS THE
BASIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS A 300 NM WIDE SWATH ON BOTH SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND NEAR 29N83W TO THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO NEAR 21N98W. OTHERWISE...EAST OF THE FRONT GENTLE TO
MODERATE S-SW WINDS WERE NOTED ON EARLIER ASCAT PASSES AND FRESH
TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING WEST OF THE FRONT. THESE
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE BASIN BY
SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN FROM WESTERN VENEZUELA N-NW TO EASTERN CUBA
NEAR 21N76W. MUCH OF THE RIDGING INFLUENCES THE BASIN WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS AT
THE SURFACE. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE STABLE CONDITIONS
WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUDINESS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS AN
OVERALL WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LENDING TO MODERATE TO
OCCASIONAL FRESH TRADES THIS MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL
SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION S-SW TO EASTERN TEXAS. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED FRONT REMAINS
TO THE WEST ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...SOUTHERLY FLOW OF PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N
OF 28N W OF 70W. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
37N40W TO A BASE NEAR 22N51W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED
FROM 32N38W TO 24N45W TO 21N58W AND BECOMES DIFFUSE TO THE W-NW
TO 27N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120
NM EAST AND 90 NM WEST OF THE FRONT E OF 46W...WITH LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY W OF 46W. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N54W IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 40W-75W.
FINALLY...ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N18W IS PROVIDING
FAIR WEATHER GENERALLY E OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W
TO 26N92W TO THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 21N97W. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
MATERIALIZE BY 27/1200 UTC ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF WATERS
S OF 21N W OF 95W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
07N21W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N
BETWEEN 04W-13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION S-SW TO EASTERN
TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1007 MB LOW
CENTERED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE LOW CENTER SW TO 26N92W TO THE EAST
COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 21N97W. WITH THE SURFACE FORCING IN PLACE
AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE INCREASING ACROSS THE
BASIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS A 300 NM WIDE SWATH ON BOTH SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND NEAR 29N83W TO THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO NEAR 21N98W. OTHERWISE...EAST OF THE FRONT GENTLE TO
MODERATE S-SW WINDS WERE NOTED ON EARLIER ASCAT PASSES AND FRESH
TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING WEST OF THE FRONT. THESE
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE BASIN BY
SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN FROM WESTERN VENEZUELA N-NW TO EASTERN CUBA
NEAR 21N76W. MUCH OF THE RIDGING INFLUENCES THE BASIN WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS AT
THE SURFACE. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE STABLE CONDITIONS
WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUDINESS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS AN
OVERALL WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LENDING TO MODERATE TO
OCCASIONAL FRESH TRADES THIS MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL
SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION S-SW TO EASTERN TEXAS. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED FRONT REMAINS
TO THE WEST ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...SOUTHERLY FLOW OF PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N
OF 28N W OF 70W. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
37N40W TO A BASE NEAR 22N51W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED
FROM 32N38W TO 24N45W TO 21N58W AND BECOMES DIFFUSE TO THE W-NW
TO 27N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120
NM EAST AND 90 NM WEST OF THE FRONT E OF 46W...WITH LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY W OF 46W. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N54W IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 40W-75W.
FINALLY...ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N18W IS PROVIDING
FAIR WEATHER GENERALLY E OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
WTPQ81 PGUM 270926
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST FRI MAR 27 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W MOVING TOWARD CHUUK STATE...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON THE ISLANDS OF CHUUK...LOSAP...FANANU AND ULUL IN CHUUK
STATE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES REMAINS IN AFFECT FOR CHUUK...LOSAP...FANANU
AND ULUL IN CHUUK STATE.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 7.1N DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.1E DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF LOSAP
              355 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
              360 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
              520 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULUL
              550 MILES EAST PULUWAT
  945 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD CHUUK
STATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT TRACK OF TD 04W INDICATES
THE CENTER WILL PASS APPROXIMATELY 80 MILES NORTH OF LOSAP EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...45 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK AND 25 MILES SOUTH OF
FANANU SUNDAY MORNING.

A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR TD 04W OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

...LOSAP AND CHUUK...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO WEST AND INCREASING TO BETWEEN 30
AND 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COMBINED
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT THEN TO BETWEEN 8 AND 11 FEET
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
PASSAGE OF 04W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE. ALSO...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

...FANANU...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING...SHIFTING TO EAST AND INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT THEN TO
BETWEEN 8 AND 11 FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE PASSAGE OF 04W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED
UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE. ALSO...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

...ULUL...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING...SHIFTING TO EAST AND INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET SATURDAY THEN TO BETWEEN 8
AND 11 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS OF 11 TO 15 FEET ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE PASSAGE OF 04W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL SEAS
SUBSIDE. ALSO...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

...SURF INFORMATION...
DANGEROUS SURF OF 12 TO 15 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG EXPOSED REEFS FOR
MOST ISLANDS AND ATOLLS OF CHUUK STATE. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE
THREATENING.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ISSUANCE OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE AT 300 AM SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

KLEESCHULTE


000
WTPQ81 PGUM 270926
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST FRI MAR 27 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W MOVING TOWARD CHUUK STATE...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON THE ISLANDS OF CHUUK...LOSAP...FANANU AND ULUL IN CHUUK
STATE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES REMAINS IN AFFECT FOR CHUUK...LOSAP...FANANU
AND ULUL IN CHUUK STATE.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 7.1N DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.1E DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF LOSAP
              355 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
              360 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
              520 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULUL
              550 MILES EAST PULUWAT
  945 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD CHUUK
STATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT TRACK OF TD 04W INDICATES
THE CENTER WILL PASS APPROXIMATELY 80 MILES NORTH OF LOSAP EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...45 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK AND 25 MILES SOUTH OF
FANANU SUNDAY MORNING.

A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR TD 04W OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

...LOSAP AND CHUUK...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO WEST AND INCREASING TO BETWEEN 30
AND 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COMBINED
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT THEN TO BETWEEN 8 AND 11 FEET
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
PASSAGE OF 04W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE. ALSO...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

...FANANU...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING...SHIFTING TO EAST AND INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT THEN TO
BETWEEN 8 AND 11 FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE PASSAGE OF 04W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED
UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE. ALSO...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

...ULUL...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING...SHIFTING TO EAST AND INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET SATURDAY THEN TO BETWEEN 8
AND 11 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS OF 11 TO 15 FEET ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE PASSAGE OF 04W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL SEAS
SUBSIDE. ALSO...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

...SURF INFORMATION...
DANGEROUS SURF OF 12 TO 15 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG EXPOSED REEFS FOR
MOST ISLANDS AND ATOLLS OF CHUUK STATE. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE
THREATENING.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ISSUANCE OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE AT 300 AM SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

KLEESCHULTE



000
WTPQ81 PGUM 270910 CCA
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...CORRECTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
200 PM CHST FRI MAR 27 2015

CORRECTED TYPO

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W FORMS NEAR POHNPEI...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON THE ISLANDS OF CHUUK...LOSAP...FANANU AND ULUL IN CHUUK
STATE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN AFFECT FOR CHUUK...LOSAP...FANANU
AND ULUL IN CHUUK STATE.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 6.9N DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.7E DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  35 MILES WEST OF POHNPEI
   15 MILES WEST OF PAKIN
  145 MILES WEST OF MOKIL
              340 MILES EAST OF LOSAP
              400 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
              400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
              595 MILES EAST PULUWAT
              560 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULUL
  990 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 9 MPH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W WILL MOVE AWAY FROM POHNPEI AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD CHUUK STATE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE CURRENT TRACK
OF TD 04W INDICATES IT WILL PASS APPROXIMATELY 60 MILES NORTH OF
LOSAP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...20 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK AND 50 MILES
SOUTH OF FANANU SUNDAY MORNING.

A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR TD 04W OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TD 03W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEST 24 HOURS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

...LOSAP AND CHUUK...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO WEST AND INCREASING TO BETWEEN 30
TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COMBINED
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT THEN TO BETWEEN 8 TO 11 FEET
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
PASSAGE OF 04W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE. ALSO...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.


...FANANU...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING...SHIFTING TO WEST AND INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT THEN TO
BETWEEN 8 TO 11 FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE PASSAGE OF 04W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED
UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE. ALSO...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

...ULUL...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING...SHIFTING TO WEST AND INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET SATURDAY THEN TO
BETWEEN 8 TO 11 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS OF 11 TO 15 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE PASSAGE OF 04W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED
UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE. ALSO...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

...SURF INFORMATION...
DANGEROUS SURF OF 12 TO 15 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG EXPOSED REEFS FOR
MOST ISLANDS AND ATOLLS OF CHUUK STATE. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE
THREATENING.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ISSUANCE OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE AT 900 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

KLEESCHULTE


000
WTPQ81 PGUM 270910 CCA
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...CORRECTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
200 PM CHST FRI MAR 27 2015

CORRECTED TYPO

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W FORMS NEAR POHNPEI...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON THE ISLANDS OF CHUUK...LOSAP...FANANU AND ULUL IN CHUUK
STATE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN AFFECT FOR CHUUK...LOSAP...FANANU
AND ULUL IN CHUUK STATE.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 6.9N DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.7E DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  35 MILES WEST OF POHNPEI
   15 MILES WEST OF PAKIN
  145 MILES WEST OF MOKIL
              340 MILES EAST OF LOSAP
              400 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
              400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
              595 MILES EAST PULUWAT
              560 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULUL
  990 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 9 MPH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W WILL MOVE AWAY FROM POHNPEI AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD CHUUK STATE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE CURRENT TRACK
OF TD 04W INDICATES IT WILL PASS APPROXIMATELY 60 MILES NORTH OF
LOSAP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...20 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK AND 50 MILES
SOUTH OF FANANU SUNDAY MORNING.

A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR TD 04W OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TD 03W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEST 24 HOURS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

...LOSAP AND CHUUK...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO WEST AND INCREASING TO BETWEEN 30
TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COMBINED
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT THEN TO BETWEEN 8 TO 11 FEET
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
PASSAGE OF 04W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE. ALSO...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.


...FANANU...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING...SHIFTING TO WEST AND INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT THEN TO
BETWEEN 8 TO 11 FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE PASSAGE OF 04W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED
UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE. ALSO...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

...ULUL...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING...SHIFTING TO WEST AND INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET SATURDAY THEN TO
BETWEEN 8 TO 11 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS OF 11 TO 15 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE PASSAGE OF 04W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED
UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE. ALSO...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

...SURF INFORMATION...
DANGEROUS SURF OF 12 TO 15 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG EXPOSED REEFS FOR
MOST ISLANDS AND ATOLLS OF CHUUK STATE. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE
THREATENING.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ISSUANCE OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE AT 900 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

KLEESCHULTE



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 270842
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
800 PM CHST FRI MAR 27 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD CHUUK STATE...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK...FANANU
AND ULUL OF CHUUK STATE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...7.1N 157.1E

ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 355 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 360 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 520 MILES EAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 945 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W
WILL BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.1 EAST...
AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SATURDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 1100 PM TONIGHT BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 200 AM SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

KLEESCHULTE



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 270842
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
800 PM CHST FRI MAR 27 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD CHUUK STATE...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK...FANANU
AND ULUL OF CHUUK STATE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...7.1N 157.1E

ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 355 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 360 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 520 MILES EAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 945 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W
WILL BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.1 EAST...
AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SATURDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 1100 PM TONIGHT BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 200 AM SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

KLEESCHULTE



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 270842
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
800 PM CHST FRI MAR 27 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD CHUUK STATE...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK...FANANU
AND ULUL OF CHUUK STATE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...7.1N 157.1E

ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 355 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 360 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 520 MILES EAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 945 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W
WILL BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.1 EAST...
AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SATURDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 1100 PM TONIGHT BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 200 AM SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

KLEESCHULTE



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 270842
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
800 PM CHST FRI MAR 27 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD CHUUK STATE...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK...FANANU
AND ULUL OF CHUUK STATE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...7.1N 157.1E

ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 355 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 360 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 520 MILES EAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 945 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W
WILL BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.1 EAST...
AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SATURDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 1100 PM TONIGHT BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 200 AM SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

KLEESCHULTE



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 270842
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
800 PM CHST FRI MAR 27 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD CHUUK STATE...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK...FANANU
AND ULUL OF CHUUK STATE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...7.1N 157.1E

ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 355 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 360 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 520 MILES EAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 945 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W
WILL BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.1 EAST...
AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SATURDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 1100 PM TONIGHT BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 200 AM SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

KLEESCHULTE



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 270842
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
800 PM CHST FRI MAR 27 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD CHUUK STATE...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK...FANANU
AND ULUL OF CHUUK STATE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...7.1N 157.1E

ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 355 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 360 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 520 MILES EAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 945 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W
WILL BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.1 EAST...
AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SATURDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 1100 PM TONIGHT BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 200 AM SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

KLEESCHULTE



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 270842
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
800 PM CHST FRI MAR 27 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD CHUUK STATE...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK...FANANU
AND ULUL OF CHUUK STATE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...7.1N 157.1E

ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 355 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 360 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 520 MILES EAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 945 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W
WILL BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.1 EAST...
AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SATURDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 1100 PM TONIGHT BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 200 AM SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

KLEESCHULTE



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 270842
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
800 PM CHST FRI MAR 27 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD CHUUK STATE...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK...FANANU
AND ULUL OF CHUUK STATE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...7.1N 157.1E

ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 355 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 360 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 520 MILES EAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 945 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W
WILL BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.1 EAST...
AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SATURDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 1100 PM TONIGHT BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 200 AM SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

KLEESCHULTE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270835
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAR 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
GULF OF MEXICO THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MEXICO RESULTING GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC LATER TODAY. WITH WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KT AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT BY EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
NEAR GALE FORCE SAT NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING BELOW GALE
FORCE SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WIND AND SEAS THEN SUBSIDING QUICKLY
SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N93W TO 1013 MB LOW PRES 06N111W 05N123W.
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N123W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
TROUGH FROM 06N90W TO 05N102W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W AND 117W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING FROM 32N138W TO 25N140W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE E OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N122W TO 20N125W. AN
EAST TO WEST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 28N120W. A 90 TO 100 KT
JETSTREAM IS S OF THE TROUGH FROM 21N118W INTO CENTRAL MEXICO.
IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 9N18W WITH RIDGE TO 15116W.

A COLD FRONT IN THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM
32N134W TO 27N140W. NW SWELL TO 9 FT WILL BUILD NW OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE SAT. OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF
15N W OF 115W. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS S OF 15N BETWEEN 95W-
120W.

$$
DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270835
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAR 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
GULF OF MEXICO THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MEXICO RESULTING GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC LATER TODAY. WITH WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KT AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT BY EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
NEAR GALE FORCE SAT NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING BELOW GALE
FORCE SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WIND AND SEAS THEN SUBSIDING QUICKLY
SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N93W TO 1013 MB LOW PRES 06N111W 05N123W.
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N123W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
TROUGH FROM 06N90W TO 05N102W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W AND 117W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING FROM 32N138W TO 25N140W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE E OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N122W TO 20N125W. AN
EAST TO WEST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 28N120W. A 90 TO 100 KT
JETSTREAM IS S OF THE TROUGH FROM 21N118W INTO CENTRAL MEXICO.
IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 9N18W WITH RIDGE TO 15116W.

A COLD FRONT IN THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM
32N134W TO 27N140W. NW SWELL TO 9 FT WILL BUILD NW OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE SAT. OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF
15N W OF 115W. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS S OF 15N BETWEEN 95W-
120W.

$$
DGS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270835
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAR 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
GULF OF MEXICO THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MEXICO RESULTING GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC LATER TODAY. WITH WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KT AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT BY EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
NEAR GALE FORCE SAT NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING BELOW GALE
FORCE SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WIND AND SEAS THEN SUBSIDING QUICKLY
SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N93W TO 1013 MB LOW PRES 06N111W 05N123W.
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N123W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
TROUGH FROM 06N90W TO 05N102W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W AND 117W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING FROM 32N138W TO 25N140W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE E OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N122W TO 20N125W. AN
EAST TO WEST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 28N120W. A 90 TO 100 KT
JETSTREAM IS S OF THE TROUGH FROM 21N118W INTO CENTRAL MEXICO.
IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 9N18W WITH RIDGE TO 15116W.

A COLD FRONT IN THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM
32N134W TO 27N140W. NW SWELL TO 9 FT WILL BUILD NW OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE SAT. OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF
15N W OF 115W. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS S OF 15N BETWEEN 95W-
120W.

$$
DGS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270835
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAR 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
GULF OF MEXICO THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MEXICO RESULTING GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC LATER TODAY. WITH WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KT AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT BY EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
NEAR GALE FORCE SAT NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING BELOW GALE
FORCE SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WIND AND SEAS THEN SUBSIDING QUICKLY
SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N93W TO 1013 MB LOW PRES 06N111W 05N123W.
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N123W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
TROUGH FROM 06N90W TO 05N102W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W AND 117W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING FROM 32N138W TO 25N140W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE E OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N122W TO 20N125W. AN
EAST TO WEST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 28N120W. A 90 TO 100 KT
JETSTREAM IS S OF THE TROUGH FROM 21N118W INTO CENTRAL MEXICO.
IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 9N18W WITH RIDGE TO 15116W.

A COLD FRONT IN THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM
32N134W TO 27N140W. NW SWELL TO 9 FT WILL BUILD NW OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE SAT. OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF
15N W OF 115W. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS S OF 15N BETWEEN 95W-
120W.

$$
DGS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270835
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAR 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
GULF OF MEXICO THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MEXICO RESULTING GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC LATER TODAY. WITH WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KT AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT BY EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
NEAR GALE FORCE SAT NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING BELOW GALE
FORCE SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WIND AND SEAS THEN SUBSIDING QUICKLY
SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N93W TO 1013 MB LOW PRES 06N111W 05N123W.
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N123W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
TROUGH FROM 06N90W TO 05N102W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W AND 117W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING FROM 32N138W TO 25N140W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE E OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N122W TO 20N125W. AN
EAST TO WEST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 28N120W. A 90 TO 100 KT
JETSTREAM IS S OF THE TROUGH FROM 21N118W INTO CENTRAL MEXICO.
IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 9N18W WITH RIDGE TO 15116W.

A COLD FRONT IN THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM
32N134W TO 27N140W. NW SWELL TO 9 FT WILL BUILD NW OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE SAT. OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF
15N W OF 115W. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS S OF 15N BETWEEN 95W-
120W.

$$
DGS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270835
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAR 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
GULF OF MEXICO THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MEXICO RESULTING GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC LATER TODAY. WITH WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KT AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT BY EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
NEAR GALE FORCE SAT NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING BELOW GALE
FORCE SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WIND AND SEAS THEN SUBSIDING QUICKLY
SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N93W TO 1013 MB LOW PRES 06N111W 05N123W.
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N123W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
TROUGH FROM 06N90W TO 05N102W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W AND 117W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING FROM 32N138W TO 25N140W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE E OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N122W TO 20N125W. AN
EAST TO WEST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 28N120W. A 90 TO 100 KT
JETSTREAM IS S OF THE TROUGH FROM 21N118W INTO CENTRAL MEXICO.
IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 9N18W WITH RIDGE TO 15116W.

A COLD FRONT IN THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM
32N134W TO 27N140W. NW SWELL TO 9 FT WILL BUILD NW OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE SAT. OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF
15N W OF 115W. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS S OF 15N BETWEEN 95W-
120W.

$$
DGS


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 270655
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
500 PM CHST FRI MAR 27 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W MOVING TOWARD CHUUK STATE...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK...FANANU
AND ULUL OF CHUUK STATE.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...7.1N 157.5E

ABOUT 325 MILES EAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 385 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 385 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 545 MILES EAST EAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 580 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 970 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.5 EAST...AND
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SATURDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 800 PM THIS EVENING BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT
1100 PM TONIGHT.

$$

KLEESCHULTE



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 270655
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
500 PM CHST FRI MAR 27 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W MOVING TOWARD CHUUK STATE...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK...FANANU
AND ULUL OF CHUUK STATE.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...7.1N 157.5E

ABOUT 325 MILES EAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 385 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 385 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 545 MILES EAST EAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 580 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 970 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.5 EAST...AND
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SATURDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 800 PM THIS EVENING BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT
1100 PM TONIGHT.

$$

KLEESCHULTE


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 270655
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
500 PM CHST FRI MAR 27 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W MOVING TOWARD CHUUK STATE...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK...FANANU
AND ULUL OF CHUUK STATE.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...7.1N 157.5E

ABOUT 325 MILES EAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 385 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 385 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 545 MILES EAST EAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 580 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 970 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.5 EAST...AND
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SATURDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 800 PM THIS EVENING BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT
1100 PM TONIGHT.

$$

KLEESCHULTE



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 270655
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
500 PM CHST FRI MAR 27 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W MOVING TOWARD CHUUK STATE...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK...FANANU
AND ULUL OF CHUUK STATE.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...7.1N 157.5E

ABOUT 325 MILES EAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 385 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 385 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 545 MILES EAST EAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 580 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 970 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.5 EAST...AND
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SATURDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 800 PM THIS EVENING BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT
1100 PM TONIGHT.

$$

KLEESCHULTE


000
AXNT20 KNHC 270548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W INTO THE
GULF TO THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO OVERNIGHT WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE BY 27/1200 UTC ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW
GULF WATERS S OF 21N W OF 95W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 16W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 03W-11W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION S-SW TO SW TEXAS AND
NW MEXICO. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS
SE LOUISIANA AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE LOW
CENTER SW TO THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. TWO MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION ARE OCCURRING WITH THE FRONT...THE FIRST IS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS EAST OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS N OF 25N...INCLUDING INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTERIOR ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA. THE OTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW GULF FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 93W-99W.
OTHERWISE...EAST OF THE FRONT GENTLE TO MODERATE S-SW WINDS WERE
NOTED ON EARLIER ASCAT PASSES AND FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE OCCURRING WEST OF THE FRONT. THESE STRONGER NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE BASIN BY SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN FROM WESTERN VENEZUELA N-NW TO CENTRAL CUBA
NEAR 22N80W. MUCH OF THE RIDGING INFLUENCES THE BASIN WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS AT
THE SURFACE. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE STABLE CONDITIONS
WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUDINESS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS AN
OVERALL WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LENDING TO MODERATE TO
OCCASIONAL FRESH TRADES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING...
HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION S-SW TO WESTERN TEXAS. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED FRONT REMAINS
WELL TO THE WEST...SOUTHERLY PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N
OF 27N W OF 73W. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
26N41W TO A BASE NEAR 24N52W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED
FROM 32N39W TO 25N45W TO 22N55W AND THEN BECOMES DIFFUSE TO THE
W-NW TO 27N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
120 NM EAST AND 90 NM WEST OF THE FRONT E OF 49W...WITH
LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY W OF 49W. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N57W IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 40W-75W.
FINALLY...ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N17W IS PROVIDING
FAIR WEATHER GENERALLY E OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 270548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W INTO THE
GULF TO THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO OVERNIGHT WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE BY 27/1200 UTC ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW
GULF WATERS S OF 21N W OF 95W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 16W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 03W-11W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION S-SW TO SW TEXAS AND
NW MEXICO. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS
SE LOUISIANA AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE LOW
CENTER SW TO THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. TWO MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION ARE OCCURRING WITH THE FRONT...THE FIRST IS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS EAST OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS N OF 25N...INCLUDING INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTERIOR ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA. THE OTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW GULF FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 93W-99W.
OTHERWISE...EAST OF THE FRONT GENTLE TO MODERATE S-SW WINDS WERE
NOTED ON EARLIER ASCAT PASSES AND FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE OCCURRING WEST OF THE FRONT. THESE STRONGER NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE BASIN BY SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN FROM WESTERN VENEZUELA N-NW TO CENTRAL CUBA
NEAR 22N80W. MUCH OF THE RIDGING INFLUENCES THE BASIN WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS AT
THE SURFACE. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE STABLE CONDITIONS
WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUDINESS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS AN
OVERALL WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LENDING TO MODERATE TO
OCCASIONAL FRESH TRADES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING...
HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION S-SW TO WESTERN TEXAS. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED FRONT REMAINS
WELL TO THE WEST...SOUTHERLY PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N
OF 27N W OF 73W. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
26N41W TO A BASE NEAR 24N52W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED
FROM 32N39W TO 25N45W TO 22N55W AND THEN BECOMES DIFFUSE TO THE
W-NW TO 27N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
120 NM EAST AND 90 NM WEST OF THE FRONT E OF 49W...WITH
LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY W OF 49W. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N57W IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 40W-75W.
FINALLY...ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N17W IS PROVIDING
FAIR WEATHER GENERALLY E OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 270548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W INTO THE
GULF TO THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO OVERNIGHT WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE BY 27/1200 UTC ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW
GULF WATERS S OF 21N W OF 95W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 16W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 03W-11W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION S-SW TO SW TEXAS AND
NW MEXICO. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS
SE LOUISIANA AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE LOW
CENTER SW TO THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. TWO MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION ARE OCCURRING WITH THE FRONT...THE FIRST IS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS EAST OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS N OF 25N...INCLUDING INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTERIOR ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA. THE OTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW GULF FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 93W-99W.
OTHERWISE...EAST OF THE FRONT GENTLE TO MODERATE S-SW WINDS WERE
NOTED ON EARLIER ASCAT PASSES AND FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE OCCURRING WEST OF THE FRONT. THESE STRONGER NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE BASIN BY SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN FROM WESTERN VENEZUELA N-NW TO CENTRAL CUBA
NEAR 22N80W. MUCH OF THE RIDGING INFLUENCES THE BASIN WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS AT
THE SURFACE. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE STABLE CONDITIONS
WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUDINESS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS AN
OVERALL WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LENDING TO MODERATE TO
OCCASIONAL FRESH TRADES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING...
HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION S-SW TO WESTERN TEXAS. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED FRONT REMAINS
WELL TO THE WEST...SOUTHERLY PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N
OF 27N W OF 73W. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
26N41W TO A BASE NEAR 24N52W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED
FROM 32N39W TO 25N45W TO 22N55W AND THEN BECOMES DIFFUSE TO THE
W-NW TO 27N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
120 NM EAST AND 90 NM WEST OF THE FRONT E OF 49W...WITH
LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY W OF 49W. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N57W IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 40W-75W.
FINALLY...ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N17W IS PROVIDING
FAIR WEATHER GENERALLY E OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 270548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W INTO THE
GULF TO THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO OVERNIGHT WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE BY 27/1200 UTC ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW
GULF WATERS S OF 21N W OF 95W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 16W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 03W-11W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION S-SW TO SW TEXAS AND
NW MEXICO. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS
SE LOUISIANA AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE LOW
CENTER SW TO THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. TWO MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION ARE OCCURRING WITH THE FRONT...THE FIRST IS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS EAST OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS N OF 25N...INCLUDING INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTERIOR ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA. THE OTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW GULF FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 93W-99W.
OTHERWISE...EAST OF THE FRONT GENTLE TO MODERATE S-SW WINDS WERE
NOTED ON EARLIER ASCAT PASSES AND FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE OCCURRING WEST OF THE FRONT. THESE STRONGER NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE BASIN BY SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN FROM WESTERN VENEZUELA N-NW TO CENTRAL CUBA
NEAR 22N80W. MUCH OF THE RIDGING INFLUENCES THE BASIN WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS AT
THE SURFACE. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE STABLE CONDITIONS
WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUDINESS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS AN
OVERALL WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LENDING TO MODERATE TO
OCCASIONAL FRESH TRADES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING...
HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION S-SW TO WESTERN TEXAS. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED FRONT REMAINS
WELL TO THE WEST...SOUTHERLY PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N
OF 27N W OF 73W. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
26N41W TO A BASE NEAR 24N52W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED
FROM 32N39W TO 25N45W TO 22N55W AND THEN BECOMES DIFFUSE TO THE
W-NW TO 27N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
120 NM EAST AND 90 NM WEST OF THE FRONT E OF 49W...WITH
LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY W OF 49W. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N57W IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 40W-75W.
FINALLY...ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N17W IS PROVIDING
FAIR WEATHER GENERALLY E OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
WTPQ81 PGUM 270359
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
200 PM CHST FRI MAR 17 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W FORMS NEAR POHNPEI...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON THE ISLANDS OF CHUUK...LOSAP...FANANU AND ULUL IN CHUUK
STATE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN AFFECT FOR CHUUK...LOSAP...FANANU
AND ULUL IN CHUUK STATE.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 6.9N DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.7E DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  35 MILES WEST OF POHNPEI
   15 MILES WEST OF PAKIN
  145 MILES WEST OF MOKIL
              340 MILES EAST OF LOSAP
              400 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
              400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
              595 MILES EAST PULUWAT
              560 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULUL
  990 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 9 MPH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W WILL MOVE AWAY FROM POHNPEI AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD CHUUK STATE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE CURRENT TRACK
OF TD 04W INDICATES IT WILL PASS APPROXIMATELY 60 MILES NORTH OF
LOSAP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...20 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK AND 50 MILES
SOUTH OF FANANU SUNDAY MORNING.

A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR TD 04W OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TD 03W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEST 24 HOURS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

...LOSAP AND CHUUK...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO WEST AND INCREASING TO BETWEEN 30
TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COMBINED
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT THEN TO BETWEEN 8 TO 11 FEET
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
PASSAGE OF 04W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE. ALSO...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.


...FANANU...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING...SHIFTING TO WEST AND INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT THEN TO
BETWEEN 8 TO 11 FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE PASSAGE OF 04W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED
UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE. ALSO...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

...ULUL...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING...SHIFTING TO WEST AND INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET SATURDAY THEN TO
BETWEEN 8 TO 11 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS OF 11 TO 15 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE PASSAGE OF 04W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED
UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE. ALSO...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

...SURF INFORMATION...
DANGEROUS SURF OF 12 TO 15 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG EXPOSED REEFS FOR
MOST ISLANDS AND ATOLLS OF CHUUK STATE. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE
THREATENING.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ISSUANCE OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE AT 900 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

KLEESCHULTE



000
WTPQ81 PGUM 270359
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
200 PM CHST FRI MAR 17 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W FORMS NEAR POHNPEI...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON THE ISLANDS OF CHUUK...LOSAP...FANANU AND ULUL IN CHUUK
STATE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN AFFECT FOR CHUUK...LOSAP...FANANU
AND ULUL IN CHUUK STATE.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 6.9N DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.7E DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  35 MILES WEST OF POHNPEI
   15 MILES WEST OF PAKIN
  145 MILES WEST OF MOKIL
              340 MILES EAST OF LOSAP
              400 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
              400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
              595 MILES EAST PULUWAT
              560 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULUL
  990 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 9 MPH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W WILL MOVE AWAY FROM POHNPEI AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD CHUUK STATE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE CURRENT TRACK
OF TD 04W INDICATES IT WILL PASS APPROXIMATELY 60 MILES NORTH OF
LOSAP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...20 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK AND 50 MILES
SOUTH OF FANANU SUNDAY MORNING.

A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR TD 04W OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TD 03W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEST 24 HOURS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

...LOSAP AND CHUUK...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO WEST AND INCREASING TO BETWEEN 30
TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COMBINED
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT THEN TO BETWEEN 8 TO 11 FEET
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
PASSAGE OF 04W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE. ALSO...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.


...FANANU...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING...SHIFTING TO WEST AND INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT THEN TO
BETWEEN 8 TO 11 FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE PASSAGE OF 04W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED
UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE. ALSO...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

...ULUL...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING...SHIFTING TO WEST AND INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET SATURDAY THEN TO
BETWEEN 8 TO 11 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS OF 11 TO 15 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE PASSAGE OF 04W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED
UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE. ALSO...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

...SURF INFORMATION...
DANGEROUS SURF OF 12 TO 15 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG EXPOSED REEFS FOR
MOST ISLANDS AND ATOLLS OF CHUUK STATE. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE
THREATENING.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ISSUANCE OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE AT 900 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

KLEESCHULTE


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 270251
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
200 PM CHST FRI MAR 27 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W FORMS NEAR POHNPEI...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK...FANANU
AND ULUL OF CHUUK STATE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...6.9N 157.7E

ABOUT  35 MILES WEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  15 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAKIN
ABOUT 145 MILES WEST OF MOKIL
ABOUT 340 MILES EAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 560 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 595 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 990 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 6.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.7 EAST...AND
MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SATURDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 500 PM BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 PM
THIS EVENING.

$$

SIMPSON



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 270251
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
200 PM CHST FRI MAR 27 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W FORMS NEAR POHNPEI...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK...FANANU
AND ULUL OF CHUUK STATE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...6.9N 157.7E

ABOUT  35 MILES WEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  15 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAKIN
ABOUT 145 MILES WEST OF MOKIL
ABOUT 340 MILES EAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 560 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 595 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 990 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 6.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.7 EAST...AND
MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SATURDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 500 PM BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 PM
THIS EVENING.

$$

SIMPSON



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 270251
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
200 PM CHST FRI MAR 27 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W FORMS NEAR POHNPEI...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK...FANANU
AND ULUL OF CHUUK STATE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...6.9N 157.7E

ABOUT  35 MILES WEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  15 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAKIN
ABOUT 145 MILES WEST OF MOKIL
ABOUT 340 MILES EAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 560 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 595 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 990 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 6.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.7 EAST...AND
MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SATURDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 500 PM BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 PM
THIS EVENING.

$$

SIMPSON



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 270251
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
200 PM CHST FRI MAR 27 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W FORMS NEAR POHNPEI...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK...FANANU
AND ULUL OF CHUUK STATE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...6.9N 157.7E

ABOUT  35 MILES WEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT  15 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAKIN
ABOUT 145 MILES WEST OF MOKIL
ABOUT 340 MILES EAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 560 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 595 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 990 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 6.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.7 EAST...AND
MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SATURDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 500 PM BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 PM
THIS EVENING.

$$

SIMPSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270245
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI MAR 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING SE ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
THIS EVENING AND WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY FRIDAY.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE MEXICAN
COAST STARTING FRI MORNING. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS QUICKLY BLASTING ACROSS THE CHIVELAS PASS AND THROUGH THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY AROUND NOON...THEN INCREASE TO GALE FORCE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
FURTHER TO AROUND 40 KT FRI EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT
BY EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR GALE FORCE SAT NIGHT
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
WIND AND SEAS THEN SUBSIDING QUICKLY SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N90W TO 04.5N101W TO 04N107W. ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 03.5N110W TO 06.5N130W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 91W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 360 NM N AND 120 NM S OF ITCZ
BETWEEN 111W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...ALONG ABOUT 143W-144W...AND IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT HAS ENTERED THE AREA FROM 30N137W TO 27N140W. NW
SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT HAS RAISED SEAS 8 TO 9 FT...AND WILL
GENERALLY STAY IN SYNCH WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SE AND
WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...REACHING NEAR 30N133W TO
24N140W BY FRI EVENING.

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS GENERALLY S OF 24N AND BETWEEN 100W AND
130W...AND IS PART OF A LOW LATITUDE UPPER BLOCKING PATTERN OF
RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE S OF 20N SPANNING BETWEEN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND 100W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK TROUGH ACROSS E PORTIONS DESCRIBED
ABOVE. N OF THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE...A DEEP LAYERED UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SW ACROSS W TEXAS AND NW MEXICO TO
27N120W.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 14N W OF
105W...CENTERED ON A WEAKENING 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 30N130W. THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS WEAKENED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH NWLY WINDS
ONLY 10-15 KT THERE. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR A SLOW SUBSIDING TREND
IN THE NW SWELL MOVING FROM OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHERE SEAS WERE
6-8 FT THIS EVENING. THIS NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS EXPECTED 6-7 FT BY FRI MORNING. SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ALONG
THE ITCZ IS PROMOTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADEWINDS S
OF 20N W OF 115W...WHERE SEAS ARE 7-10 FT THIS EVENING IN MIXED
NE WIND SWELL AND BUILDING S SWELL. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
COLLAPSE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES 135W...WITH
STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE TRADEWINDS MODESTLY...WITH
AN AREA OF 20-25 KT TRADES EXPECTED FROM 13N TO 20N W OF 136W BY
FRI AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH SAT MORNING.

ELSEWHERE E OF 115W...WINDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT GAP WINDS OCCURRING. A STRONG PULSE OF CROSS
EQUATORIAL S SWELL HAS REACHED THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
MEXICO TODAY...AND WILL BUILD DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS TO GENERATE
STRONG AND DANGEROUS SURF ALONG THE LOCAL COASTLINES AND REEFS.
SEAS TO 8 FT AND GREATER WILL REACH WITHIN 200 NM OF THE CENTRAL
MEXICAN COAST ON FRIDAY...AND ALSO PASS BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS
AND ECUADOR. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE
WEEKEND.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270245
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI MAR 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING SE ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
THIS EVENING AND WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY FRIDAY.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE MEXICAN
COAST STARTING FRI MORNING. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS QUICKLY BLASTING ACROSS THE CHIVELAS PASS AND THROUGH THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY AROUND NOON...THEN INCREASE TO GALE FORCE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
FURTHER TO AROUND 40 KT FRI EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT
BY EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR GALE FORCE SAT NIGHT
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
WIND AND SEAS THEN SUBSIDING QUICKLY SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N90W TO 04.5N101W TO 04N107W. ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 03.5N110W TO 06.5N130W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 91W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 360 NM N AND 120 NM S OF ITCZ
BETWEEN 111W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...ALONG ABOUT 143W-144W...AND IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT HAS ENTERED THE AREA FROM 30N137W TO 27N140W. NW
SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT HAS RAISED SEAS 8 TO 9 FT...AND WILL
GENERALLY STAY IN SYNCH WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SE AND
WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...REACHING NEAR 30N133W TO
24N140W BY FRI EVENING.

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS GENERALLY S OF 24N AND BETWEEN 100W AND
130W...AND IS PART OF A LOW LATITUDE UPPER BLOCKING PATTERN OF
RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE S OF 20N SPANNING BETWEEN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND 100W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK TROUGH ACROSS E PORTIONS DESCRIBED
ABOVE. N OF THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE...A DEEP LAYERED UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SW ACROSS W TEXAS AND NW MEXICO TO
27N120W.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 14N W OF
105W...CENTERED ON A WEAKENING 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 30N130W. THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS WEAKENED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH NWLY WINDS
ONLY 10-15 KT THERE. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR A SLOW SUBSIDING TREND
IN THE NW SWELL MOVING FROM OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHERE SEAS WERE
6-8 FT THIS EVENING. THIS NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS EXPECTED 6-7 FT BY FRI MORNING. SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ALONG
THE ITCZ IS PROMOTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADEWINDS S
OF 20N W OF 115W...WHERE SEAS ARE 7-10 FT THIS EVENING IN MIXED
NE WIND SWELL AND BUILDING S SWELL. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
COLLAPSE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES 135W...WITH
STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE TRADEWINDS MODESTLY...WITH
AN AREA OF 20-25 KT TRADES EXPECTED FROM 13N TO 20N W OF 136W BY
FRI AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH SAT MORNING.

ELSEWHERE E OF 115W...WINDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT GAP WINDS OCCURRING. A STRONG PULSE OF CROSS
EQUATORIAL S SWELL HAS REACHED THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
MEXICO TODAY...AND WILL BUILD DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS TO GENERATE
STRONG AND DANGEROUS SURF ALONG THE LOCAL COASTLINES AND REEFS.
SEAS TO 8 FT AND GREATER WILL REACH WITHIN 200 NM OF THE CENTRAL
MEXICAN COAST ON FRIDAY...AND ALSO PASS BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS
AND ECUADOR. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE
WEEKEND.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270245
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI MAR 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING SE ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
THIS EVENING AND WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY FRIDAY.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE MEXICAN
COAST STARTING FRI MORNING. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS QUICKLY BLASTING ACROSS THE CHIVELAS PASS AND THROUGH THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY AROUND NOON...THEN INCREASE TO GALE FORCE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
FURTHER TO AROUND 40 KT FRI EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT
BY EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR GALE FORCE SAT NIGHT
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
WIND AND SEAS THEN SUBSIDING QUICKLY SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N90W TO 04.5N101W TO 04N107W. ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 03.5N110W TO 06.5N130W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 91W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 360 NM N AND 120 NM S OF ITCZ
BETWEEN 111W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...ALONG ABOUT 143W-144W...AND IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT HAS ENTERED THE AREA FROM 30N137W TO 27N140W. NW
SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT HAS RAISED SEAS 8 TO 9 FT...AND WILL
GENERALLY STAY IN SYNCH WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SE AND
WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...REACHING NEAR 30N133W TO
24N140W BY FRI EVENING.

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS GENERALLY S OF 24N AND BETWEEN 100W AND
130W...AND IS PART OF A LOW LATITUDE UPPER BLOCKING PATTERN OF
RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE S OF 20N SPANNING BETWEEN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND 100W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK TROUGH ACROSS E PORTIONS DESCRIBED
ABOVE. N OF THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE...A DEEP LAYERED UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SW ACROSS W TEXAS AND NW MEXICO TO
27N120W.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 14N W OF
105W...CENTERED ON A WEAKENING 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 30N130W. THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS WEAKENED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH NWLY WINDS
ONLY 10-15 KT THERE. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR A SLOW SUBSIDING TREND
IN THE NW SWELL MOVING FROM OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHERE SEAS WERE
6-8 FT THIS EVENING. THIS NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS EXPECTED 6-7 FT BY FRI MORNING. SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ALONG
THE ITCZ IS PROMOTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADEWINDS S
OF 20N W OF 115W...WHERE SEAS ARE 7-10 FT THIS EVENING IN MIXED
NE WIND SWELL AND BUILDING S SWELL. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
COLLAPSE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES 135W...WITH
STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE TRADEWINDS MODESTLY...WITH
AN AREA OF 20-25 KT TRADES EXPECTED FROM 13N TO 20N W OF 136W BY
FRI AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH SAT MORNING.

ELSEWHERE E OF 115W...WINDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT GAP WINDS OCCURRING. A STRONG PULSE OF CROSS
EQUATORIAL S SWELL HAS REACHED THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
MEXICO TODAY...AND WILL BUILD DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS TO GENERATE
STRONG AND DANGEROUS SURF ALONG THE LOCAL COASTLINES AND REEFS.
SEAS TO 8 FT AND GREATER WILL REACH WITHIN 200 NM OF THE CENTRAL
MEXICAN COAST ON FRIDAY...AND ALSO PASS BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS
AND ECUADOR. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE
WEEKEND.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270245
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI MAR 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING SE ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
THIS EVENING AND WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY FRIDAY.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE MEXICAN
COAST STARTING FRI MORNING. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS QUICKLY BLASTING ACROSS THE CHIVELAS PASS AND THROUGH THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY AROUND NOON...THEN INCREASE TO GALE FORCE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
FURTHER TO AROUND 40 KT FRI EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT
BY EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR GALE FORCE SAT NIGHT
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
WIND AND SEAS THEN SUBSIDING QUICKLY SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N90W TO 04.5N101W TO 04N107W. ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 03.5N110W TO 06.5N130W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 91W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 360 NM N AND 120 NM S OF ITCZ
BETWEEN 111W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...ALONG ABOUT 143W-144W...AND IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT HAS ENTERED THE AREA FROM 30N137W TO 27N140W. NW
SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT HAS RAISED SEAS 8 TO 9 FT...AND WILL
GENERALLY STAY IN SYNCH WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SE AND
WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...REACHING NEAR 30N133W TO
24N140W BY FRI EVENING.

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS GENERALLY S OF 24N AND BETWEEN 100W AND
130W...AND IS PART OF A LOW LATITUDE UPPER BLOCKING PATTERN OF
RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE S OF 20N SPANNING BETWEEN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND 100W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK TROUGH ACROSS E PORTIONS DESCRIBED
ABOVE. N OF THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE...A DEEP LAYERED UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SW ACROSS W TEXAS AND NW MEXICO TO
27N120W.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 14N W OF
105W...CENTERED ON A WEAKENING 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 30N130W. THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS WEAKENED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH NWLY WINDS
ONLY 10-15 KT THERE. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR A SLOW SUBSIDING TREND
IN THE NW SWELL MOVING FROM OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHERE SEAS WERE
6-8 FT THIS EVENING. THIS NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS EXPECTED 6-7 FT BY FRI MORNING. SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ALONG
THE ITCZ IS PROMOTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADEWINDS S
OF 20N W OF 115W...WHERE SEAS ARE 7-10 FT THIS EVENING IN MIXED
NE WIND SWELL AND BUILDING S SWELL. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
COLLAPSE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES 135W...WITH
STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE TRADEWINDS MODESTLY...WITH
AN AREA OF 20-25 KT TRADES EXPECTED FROM 13N TO 20N W OF 136W BY
FRI AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH SAT MORNING.

ELSEWHERE E OF 115W...WINDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT GAP WINDS OCCURRING. A STRONG PULSE OF CROSS
EQUATORIAL S SWELL HAS REACHED THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
MEXICO TODAY...AND WILL BUILD DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS TO GENERATE
STRONG AND DANGEROUS SURF ALONG THE LOCAL COASTLINES AND REEFS.
SEAS TO 8 FT AND GREATER WILL REACH WITHIN 200 NM OF THE CENTRAL
MEXICAN COAST ON FRIDAY...AND ALSO PASS BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS
AND ECUADOR. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE
WEEKEND.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXNT20 KNHC 262353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A COLD FRONT IS OFF THE TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA COASTS AND WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE BY 1200 UTC FRIDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF WATERS S OF 21N W OF 95W. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 31N11W. METEO FRANCE HAS ISSUED
A BEAUFORT SCALE 8 OR FRESH GALE FOR MARINE AREA AGADIR. SEE
LATEST METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER INTERNET ADDRESS
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N13W TO
0N16W TO 3S23W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 3S23W TO 3S30W TO THE
SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 4S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 1N-3S BETWEEN 11W-16W DUE TO MONSOON FLOW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 2S-6S BETWEEN 24W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDING FROM S LOUISIANA AT 29N92W TO NE MEXICO AT 24N98W. 20-
25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF FRONT. A PREFRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
N OF TAMPICO MEXICO AT 22N98W. 10 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF
TROUGH. A SQUALL LINE IS OVER THE NE GULF EXTENDING FROM N
FLORIDA AT 29N83W TO 26N86W TO 27N90W. PRESENTLY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W-
92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COLD
FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 5-10
KT SOUTHERLY HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W SUPPORTING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM. A RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE S GULF S OF
26N TO INCLUDE CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM TAMPA FLORIDA AT 28N83W
TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N90W WITH CONVECTION AND
SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...A GALE IS FORECAST FOR THE SW GULF ON
1200 UTC FRIDAY. SEE ABOVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WIND ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS S OF CUBA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E
OF 78W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER W PUERTO
RICO. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA
BETWEEN 77W-80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR
CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND N GUATEMALA DUE
TO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING THE FORMATION
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 36N58W. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N42W
TO 24N50W TO 22N60W TO 25N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM S OF FRONT E OF 50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM S OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 1031 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 38N18W. SURFACE RIDGING IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 38W. IN THE TROPICS SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE E OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-18N
BETWEEN 50W-60W MOVING W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 40W-
60W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N35W TO 25N40W WITH SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 262353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A COLD FRONT IS OFF THE TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA COASTS AND WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE BY 1200 UTC FRIDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF WATERS S OF 21N W OF 95W. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 31N11W. METEO FRANCE HAS ISSUED
A BEAUFORT SCALE 8 OR FRESH GALE FOR MARINE AREA AGADIR. SEE
LATEST METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER INTERNET ADDRESS
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N13W TO
0N16W TO 3S23W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 3S23W TO 3S30W TO THE
SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 4S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 1N-3S BETWEEN 11W-16W DUE TO MONSOON FLOW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 2S-6S BETWEEN 24W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDING FROM S LOUISIANA AT 29N92W TO NE MEXICO AT 24N98W. 20-
25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF FRONT. A PREFRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
N OF TAMPICO MEXICO AT 22N98W. 10 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF
TROUGH. A SQUALL LINE IS OVER THE NE GULF EXTENDING FROM N
FLORIDA AT 29N83W TO 26N86W TO 27N90W. PRESENTLY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W-
92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COLD
FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 5-10
KT SOUTHERLY HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W SUPPORTING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM. A RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE S GULF S OF
26N TO INCLUDE CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM TAMPA FLORIDA AT 28N83W
TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N90W WITH CONVECTION AND
SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...A GALE IS FORECAST FOR THE SW GULF ON
1200 UTC FRIDAY. SEE ABOVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WIND ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS S OF CUBA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E
OF 78W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER W PUERTO
RICO. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA
BETWEEN 77W-80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR
CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND N GUATEMALA DUE
TO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING THE FORMATION
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 36N58W. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N42W
TO 24N50W TO 22N60W TO 25N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM S OF FRONT E OF 50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM S OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 1031 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 38N18W. SURFACE RIDGING IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 38W. IN THE TROPICS SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE E OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-18N
BETWEEN 50W-60W MOVING W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 40W-
60W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N35W TO 25N40W WITH SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262218
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAR 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE SE AND REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG
THE MEXICAN COAST STARTING FRI MORNING. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO RESULTING IN STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS QUICKLY BLASTING ACROSS THE CHIVELAS PASS AND
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY FRI AFTERNOON..THEN
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY FRI AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FURTHER TO AROUND 40 KT FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
17 FT BY EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR GALE FORCE SAT
NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE MONDAY
MORNING...WITH WIND AND SEAS THEN SUBSIDING QUICKLY SUN
AFTERNOON.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N90W TO 05N102W TO 05N113W...WHERE
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH FROM 06N90W TO 05N102W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 05N113W TO 08N135W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 116W AND
129W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...ALONG ABOUT 144W...AND IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT HAS JUST ENTERED THE AREA NEAR 29N139W THIS
AFTERNOON. NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT HAS RAISED SEAS 8 TO 9
FT...AND WILL GENERALLY STAY IN SYNCH WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
SE AND WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS GENERALLY S OF 24N AND BETWEEN 100W AND
130W...AND IS PART OF A LOW LATITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN OF RIDGE-
TROUGH-RIDGE S OF 20N SPANNING BETWEEN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
100W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WEAK TROUGH ACROSS E PORTIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE. N OF THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE...A DEEP LAYERED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL U.S. SW ACROSS W TEXAS AND NW MEXICO TO 26N120W.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 14N W OF
105W...CENTERED ON A WEAKENING 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 33N128W. THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS WEAKENED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH NWLY WINDS
DIMINISHING THERE. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR A SLOW SUBSIDING TREND
IN THE NW SWELL MOVING FROM OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHERE SEAS WERE
7-8 FT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS EXPECTED 6-7 FT BY FRI MORNING. SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ALONG
THE ITCZ IS PROMOTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADEWINDS S
OF 20N W OF 115W...WHERE SEAS ARE 7-10 FT THIS AFTERNOON IN
MIXED NE WIND SWELL AND BUILDING S SWELL. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED
TO COLLAPSE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES 135W...WITH
STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE TRADEWINDS MODESTLY...WITH
AN AREA OF 20-25 KT TRADES EXPECTED FROM 13N TO 20N W OF 136W BY
FRI AFTERNOON AND GENERALLY CONTINUING THROUGH SAT.

ELSEWHERE E OF 115W...WINDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT GAP WINDS OCCURRING. A STRONG PULSE OF CROSS
EQUATORIAL S SWELL HAS REACHED THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
MEXICO TODAY...AND WILL BUILD DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS TO GENERATE
STRONG AND DANGEROUS SURF ALONG THE LOCAL COASTLINES AND REEFS.
SEAS TO 8 FT AND GREATER WILL REACH WITHIN 200 NM OF THE CENTRAL
MEXICAN COAST ON FRIDAY...AND ALSO PASS BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS
AND ECUADOR. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE
WEEKEND.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262218
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAR 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE SE AND REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG
THE MEXICAN COAST STARTING FRI MORNING. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO RESULTING IN STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS QUICKLY BLASTING ACROSS THE CHIVELAS PASS AND
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY FRI AFTERNOON..THEN
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY FRI AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FURTHER TO AROUND 40 KT FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
17 FT BY EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR GALE FORCE SAT
NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE MONDAY
MORNING...WITH WIND AND SEAS THEN SUBSIDING QUICKLY SUN
AFTERNOON.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N90W TO 05N102W TO 05N113W...WHERE
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH FROM 06N90W TO 05N102W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 05N113W TO 08N135W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 116W AND
129W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...ALONG ABOUT 144W...AND IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT HAS JUST ENTERED THE AREA NEAR 29N139W THIS
AFTERNOON. NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT HAS RAISED SEAS 8 TO 9
FT...AND WILL GENERALLY STAY IN SYNCH WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
SE AND WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS GENERALLY S OF 24N AND BETWEEN 100W AND
130W...AND IS PART OF A LOW LATITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN OF RIDGE-
TROUGH-RIDGE S OF 20N SPANNING BETWEEN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
100W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WEAK TROUGH ACROSS E PORTIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE. N OF THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE...A DEEP LAYERED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL U.S. SW ACROSS W TEXAS AND NW MEXICO TO 26N120W.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 14N W OF
105W...CENTERED ON A WEAKENING 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 33N128W. THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS WEAKENED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH NWLY WINDS
DIMINISHING THERE. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR A SLOW SUBSIDING TREND
IN THE NW SWELL MOVING FROM OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHERE SEAS WERE
7-8 FT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS EXPECTED 6-7 FT BY FRI MORNING. SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ALONG
THE ITCZ IS PROMOTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADEWINDS S
OF 20N W OF 115W...WHERE SEAS ARE 7-10 FT THIS AFTERNOON IN
MIXED NE WIND SWELL AND BUILDING S SWELL. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED
TO COLLAPSE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES 135W...WITH
STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE TRADEWINDS MODESTLY...WITH
AN AREA OF 20-25 KT TRADES EXPECTED FROM 13N TO 20N W OF 136W BY
FRI AFTERNOON AND GENERALLY CONTINUING THROUGH SAT.

ELSEWHERE E OF 115W...WINDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT GAP WINDS OCCURRING. A STRONG PULSE OF CROSS
EQUATORIAL S SWELL HAS REACHED THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
MEXICO TODAY...AND WILL BUILD DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS TO GENERATE
STRONG AND DANGEROUS SURF ALONG THE LOCAL COASTLINES AND REEFS.
SEAS TO 8 FT AND GREATER WILL REACH WITHIN 200 NM OF THE CENTRAL
MEXICAN COAST ON FRIDAY...AND ALSO PASS BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS
AND ECUADOR. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE
WEEKEND.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXNT20 KNHC 261719
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS EMERGING OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS AND
WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH TONIGHT. NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE BY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SW GULF WATERS S OF 21N W OF 95W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 16W AND CONTINUES TO 03S27W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO THE S AMERICA COAST NEAR 04S38W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06S-
06N BETWEEN 08W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW
MEXICO/TEXAS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AS OF 1500 UTC HAS
ENTERED THE GULF JUST OFF THE TEXAS COAST FROM 30N94W TO 27N97W.
A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH AS OF 1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE
LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N91W TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N97W. THE
COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N TO THE N GULF COAST ANYWHERE
FROM THE TEXAS COAST ALONG 97W TO THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA ALONG
84W. GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS OF UP TO 35 KT ARE OCCURRING AROUND
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE NW
OF THE COLD FRONT. AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION...S TO SE WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY MORNING. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE GULF AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN LATE
TONIGHT AND EASTERN BASIN ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THE BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH DIFFLUENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVELS PREVENTING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. TRADE WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KT PREVAIL OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
WINDS LOCALLY UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA AND
HONDURAS...AND WEAKER WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT BETWEEN JAMAICA AND
CUBA. FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM JAMAICA TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. CONVECTION WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE NW
PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING
AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS
FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE NW MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
THE ISLAND ON SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN NORTHWARD OVER
THE WESTERN ATLC. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH
NEAR 35N63W IS PRODUCING SE FLOW OF 15 TO 20KT W OF 70W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WELL IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO AND
TEXAS IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 23N
AND W OF 75W TO THE FL PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND NW
BAHAMAS. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N43W AND EXTENDS
SW TO 26N50W TO 23N61W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 24N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. RIDGING ANCHORED BY A
1031 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE ATLC S OF 32N AND E OF 40W. WINDS AND
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OFF THE E COAST OF FL AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WATERS BY FRIDAY
EVENING...ADVANCING TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO BERMUDA SATURDAY
NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 261719
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS EMERGING OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS AND
WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH TONIGHT. NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE BY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SW GULF WATERS S OF 21N W OF 95W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 16W AND CONTINUES TO 03S27W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO THE S AMERICA COAST NEAR 04S38W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06S-
06N BETWEEN 08W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW
MEXICO/TEXAS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AS OF 1500 UTC HAS
ENTERED THE GULF JUST OFF THE TEXAS COAST FROM 30N94W TO 27N97W.
A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH AS OF 1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE
LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N91W TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N97W. THE
COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N TO THE N GULF COAST ANYWHERE
FROM THE TEXAS COAST ALONG 97W TO THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA ALONG
84W. GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS OF UP TO 35 KT ARE OCCURRING AROUND
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE NW
OF THE COLD FRONT. AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION...S TO SE WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY MORNING. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE GULF AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN LATE
TONIGHT AND EASTERN BASIN ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THE BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH DIFFLUENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVELS PREVENTING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. TRADE WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KT PREVAIL OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
WINDS LOCALLY UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA AND
HONDURAS...AND WEAKER WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT BETWEEN JAMAICA AND
CUBA. FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM JAMAICA TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. CONVECTION WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE NW
PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING
AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS
FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE NW MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
THE ISLAND ON SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN NORTHWARD OVER
THE WESTERN ATLC. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH
NEAR 35N63W IS PRODUCING SE FLOW OF 15 TO 20KT W OF 70W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WELL IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO AND
TEXAS IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 23N
AND W OF 75W TO THE FL PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND NW
BAHAMAS. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N43W AND EXTENDS
SW TO 26N50W TO 23N61W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 24N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. RIDGING ANCHORED BY A
1031 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE ATLC S OF 32N AND E OF 40W. WINDS AND
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OFF THE E COAST OF FL AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WATERS BY FRIDAY
EVENING...ADVANCING TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO BERMUDA SATURDAY
NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261531
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAR 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GALE WARNING...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO STARTING
FRI MORNING. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MEXICO RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY FRI MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY TO GALE FORCE BY FRI AFTERNOON WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 17 FT BY EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW
GALE FORCE SAT AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WINDS CONTINUING INTO SUN.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE WITH THE END OF THE GALE FORCE WINDS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 6N88W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 5N97W
WHERE THE MONSOON TROUGH BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N107W TO
5N113W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N135W TO
7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-12N
BETWEEN 116W-129W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 90W-
93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LOW IN NW
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 100W-106W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL ENTER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SWELLS PUSHING IN
THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SE TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE FRI
MORNING. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS S OF 27N E OF 130W. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS NE OF THE UPPER RIDGE N OF 27N E OF 120W TO OVER SW
CONUS AND NW MEXICO. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER RIDGE IS
ANCHORED NEAR 7N107W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE E EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 14N92W TO 6N96W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING THE 1012 LOW IN THE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W TO THE COLD
FRONT JUST NW OF THE AREA WITH A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 35N129W.

CURRENTLY THE ENTIRE AREA IS VOID OF STRONG WINDS WITH SOME AREA
SWELLS BEING GENERATED. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PRODUCING A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SWELLS TO 8 FT FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN
126W TO 133W THAT WILL SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON THEN RETURN FRI
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS TO 9 FT
ARE REACHING TO 12N BETWEEN 92W AND 124W. THESE SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AS WELL AS E OF THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS FRI AND WILL SUBSIDE BY SAT AFTERNOON. A WAVE PERIOD OF
18 TO 20 SEC EXTENDS FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TO THE EQUATOR.
THIS PERIOD TRAIN WILL CONTINUE UP THE BAJA COAST THROUGH FRI
WHILE THE AREA S OF BAJA RELAXES TO 16 TO 18 FT TO THE EQUATOR.

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261531
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAR 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GALE WARNING...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO STARTING
FRI MORNING. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MEXICO RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY FRI MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY TO GALE FORCE BY FRI AFTERNOON WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 17 FT BY EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW
GALE FORCE SAT AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WINDS CONTINUING INTO SUN.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE WITH THE END OF THE GALE FORCE WINDS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 6N88W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 5N97W
WHERE THE MONSOON TROUGH BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N107W TO
5N113W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N135W TO
7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-12N
BETWEEN 116W-129W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 90W-
93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LOW IN NW
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 100W-106W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL ENTER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SWELLS PUSHING IN
THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SE TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE FRI
MORNING. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS S OF 27N E OF 130W. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS NE OF THE UPPER RIDGE N OF 27N E OF 120W TO OVER SW
CONUS AND NW MEXICO. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER RIDGE IS
ANCHORED NEAR 7N107W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE E EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 14N92W TO 6N96W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING THE 1012 LOW IN THE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W TO THE COLD
FRONT JUST NW OF THE AREA WITH A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 35N129W.

CURRENTLY THE ENTIRE AREA IS VOID OF STRONG WINDS WITH SOME AREA
SWELLS BEING GENERATED. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PRODUCING A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SWELLS TO 8 FT FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN
126W TO 133W THAT WILL SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON THEN RETURN FRI
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS TO 9 FT
ARE REACHING TO 12N BETWEEN 92W AND 124W. THESE SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AS WELL AS E OF THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS FRI AND WILL SUBSIDE BY SAT AFTERNOON. A WAVE PERIOD OF
18 TO 20 SEC EXTENDS FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TO THE EQUATOR.
THIS PERIOD TRAIN WILL CONTINUE UP THE BAJA COAST THROUGH FRI
WHILE THE AREA S OF BAJA RELAXES TO 16 TO 18 FT TO THE EQUATOR.

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261531
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAR 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GALE WARNING...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO STARTING
FRI MORNING. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MEXICO RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY FRI MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY TO GALE FORCE BY FRI AFTERNOON WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 17 FT BY EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW
GALE FORCE SAT AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WINDS CONTINUING INTO SUN.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE WITH THE END OF THE GALE FORCE WINDS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 6N88W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 5N97W
WHERE THE MONSOON TROUGH BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N107W TO
5N113W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N135W TO
7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-12N
BETWEEN 116W-129W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 90W-
93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LOW IN NW
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 100W-106W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL ENTER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SWELLS PUSHING IN
THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SE TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE FRI
MORNING. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS S OF 27N E OF 130W. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS NE OF THE UPPER RIDGE N OF 27N E OF 120W TO OVER SW
CONUS AND NW MEXICO. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER RIDGE IS
ANCHORED NEAR 7N107W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE E EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 14N92W TO 6N96W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING THE 1012 LOW IN THE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W TO THE COLD
FRONT JUST NW OF THE AREA WITH A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 35N129W.

CURRENTLY THE ENTIRE AREA IS VOID OF STRONG WINDS WITH SOME AREA
SWELLS BEING GENERATED. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PRODUCING A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SWELLS TO 8 FT FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN
126W TO 133W THAT WILL SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON THEN RETURN FRI
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS TO 9 FT
ARE REACHING TO 12N BETWEEN 92W AND 124W. THESE SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AS WELL AS E OF THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS FRI AND WILL SUBSIDE BY SAT AFTERNOON. A WAVE PERIOD OF
18 TO 20 SEC EXTENDS FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TO THE EQUATOR.
THIS PERIOD TRAIN WILL CONTINUE UP THE BAJA COAST THROUGH FRI
WHILE THE AREA S OF BAJA RELAXES TO 16 TO 18 FT TO THE EQUATOR.

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261531
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAR 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GALE WARNING...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO STARTING
FRI MORNING. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MEXICO RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY FRI MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY TO GALE FORCE BY FRI AFTERNOON WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 17 FT BY EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW
GALE FORCE SAT AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WINDS CONTINUING INTO SUN.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE WITH THE END OF THE GALE FORCE WINDS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 6N88W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 5N97W
WHERE THE MONSOON TROUGH BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N107W TO
5N113W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N135W TO
7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-12N
BETWEEN 116W-129W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 90W-
93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LOW IN NW
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 100W-106W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL ENTER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SWELLS PUSHING IN
THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SE TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE FRI
MORNING. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS S OF 27N E OF 130W. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS NE OF THE UPPER RIDGE N OF 27N E OF 120W TO OVER SW
CONUS AND NW MEXICO. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER RIDGE IS
ANCHORED NEAR 7N107W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE E EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 14N92W TO 6N96W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING THE 1012 LOW IN THE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W TO THE COLD
FRONT JUST NW OF THE AREA WITH A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 35N129W.

CURRENTLY THE ENTIRE AREA IS VOID OF STRONG WINDS WITH SOME AREA
SWELLS BEING GENERATED. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PRODUCING A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SWELLS TO 8 FT FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN
126W TO 133W THAT WILL SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON THEN RETURN FRI
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS TO 9 FT
ARE REACHING TO 12N BETWEEN 92W AND 124W. THESE SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AS WELL AS E OF THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS FRI AND WILL SUBSIDE BY SAT AFTERNOON. A WAVE PERIOD OF
18 TO 20 SEC EXTENDS FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TO THE EQUATOR.
THIS PERIOD TRAIN WILL CONTINUE UP THE BAJA COAST THROUGH FRI
WHILE THE AREA S OF BAJA RELAXES TO 16 TO 18 FT TO THE EQUATOR.

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 261041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTS THURSDAY MORNING AND PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE BY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SW GULF WATERS S OF 20N W OF 95W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 06W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE EAST OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY PROGRESSING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS.
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS OCCURRING AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING IN SUPPORT OF WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF N OF 23N
BETWEEN 90W-95W. A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 82W-86W.
LOOKING AHEAD...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND TROUGHING
MOVING EAST...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
NW GULF THURSDAY MORNING...USHERING IN FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF BY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE BASIN BY SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...A STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 09N77W IS
INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR
AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY HOWEVER SHOWS A
FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN E OF 72W. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE AS AN OVERALL WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
LENDING TO GENTLE TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE TRADES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC LATE IN THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL
SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH NOTED BETWEEN N OF 27N BETWEEN 45W-60W OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM
32N45W SW TO 27N50W TO 23N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF
50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT FROM 23N-
27N BETWEEN 50W-70W. TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT...
SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 29N W OF 75W. FARTHER EAST...THE EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1030 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N21W. THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 20N55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 261041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTS THURSDAY MORNING AND PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE BY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SW GULF WATERS S OF 20N W OF 95W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 06W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE EAST OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY PROGRESSING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS.
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS OCCURRING AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING IN SUPPORT OF WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF N OF 23N
BETWEEN 90W-95W. A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 82W-86W.
LOOKING AHEAD...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND TROUGHING
MOVING EAST...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
NW GULF THURSDAY MORNING...USHERING IN FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF BY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE BASIN BY SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...A STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 09N77W IS
INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR
AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY HOWEVER SHOWS A
FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN E OF 72W. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE AS AN OVERALL WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
LENDING TO GENTLE TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE TRADES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC LATE IN THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL
SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH NOTED BETWEEN N OF 27N BETWEEN 45W-60W OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM
32N45W SW TO 27N50W TO 23N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF
50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT FROM 23N-
27N BETWEEN 50W-70W. TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT...
SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 29N W OF 75W. FARTHER EAST...THE EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1030 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N21W. THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 20N55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 261041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTS THURSDAY MORNING AND PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE BY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SW GULF WATERS S OF 20N W OF 95W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 06W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE EAST OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY PROGRESSING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS.
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS OCCURRING AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING IN SUPPORT OF WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF N OF 23N
BETWEEN 90W-95W. A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 82W-86W.
LOOKING AHEAD...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND TROUGHING
MOVING EAST...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
NW GULF THURSDAY MORNING...USHERING IN FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF BY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE BASIN BY SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...A STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 09N77W IS
INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR
AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY HOWEVER SHOWS A
FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN E OF 72W. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE AS AN OVERALL WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
LENDING TO GENTLE TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE TRADES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC LATE IN THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL
SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH NOTED BETWEEN N OF 27N BETWEEN 45W-60W OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM
32N45W SW TO 27N50W TO 23N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF
50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT FROM 23N-
27N BETWEEN 50W-70W. TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT...
SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 29N W OF 75W. FARTHER EAST...THE EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1030 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N21W. THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 20N55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 261041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTS THURSDAY MORNING AND PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE BY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SW GULF WATERS S OF 20N W OF 95W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 06W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE EAST OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY PROGRESSING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS.
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS OCCURRING AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING IN SUPPORT OF WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF N OF 23N
BETWEEN 90W-95W. A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 82W-86W.
LOOKING AHEAD...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND TROUGHING
MOVING EAST...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
NW GULF THURSDAY MORNING...USHERING IN FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF BY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE BASIN BY SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...A STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 09N77W IS
INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR
AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY HOWEVER SHOWS A
FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN E OF 72W. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE AS AN OVERALL WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
LENDING TO GENTLE TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE TRADES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC LATE IN THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL
SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH NOTED BETWEEN N OF 27N BETWEEN 45W-60W OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM
32N45W SW TO 27N50W TO 23N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF
50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT FROM 23N-
27N BETWEEN 50W-70W. TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT...
SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 29N W OF 75W. FARTHER EAST...THE EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1030 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N21W. THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 20N55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260919
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAR 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THU EVENING. THE NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-40 KT
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT THU NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO
BELOW GALE FORCE LATE SAT.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 1012 MB LOW NEAR 5N96W TO 5N113W. ITCZ FROM
5N113W TO 7N130W TO 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 360 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 122W-131W

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N128W TO
23N133W. AN EAST TO WEST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 29N124W. A 75
TO 90 KT JETSTREAM IS S OF THE TROUGH FROM 22N125W TO 22N110W
THEN INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 7N108W TO
THE COAST OF MEXICO AT 16N98W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
GUATEMALA TO THE EQUATOR AT 95W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. NW SWELL N OF 16N BETWEEN
116W-123W...WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT THU NIGHT. CROSS
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS S OF 5N BETWEEN 95-120W WILL SPREAD NNE
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
EXTENDING FROM 32N134W TO 27N140W. NW SWELL WILL BUILD NW OF THE
FRONT.

$$
DGS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260919
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAR 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THU EVENING. THE NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-40 KT
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT THU NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO
BELOW GALE FORCE LATE SAT.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 1012 MB LOW NEAR 5N96W TO 5N113W. ITCZ FROM
5N113W TO 7N130W TO 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 360 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 122W-131W

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N128W TO
23N133W. AN EAST TO WEST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 29N124W. A 75
TO 90 KT JETSTREAM IS S OF THE TROUGH FROM 22N125W TO 22N110W
THEN INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 7N108W TO
THE COAST OF MEXICO AT 16N98W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
GUATEMALA TO THE EQUATOR AT 95W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. NW SWELL N OF 16N BETWEEN
116W-123W...WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT THU NIGHT. CROSS
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS S OF 5N BETWEEN 95-120W WILL SPREAD NNE
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
EXTENDING FROM 32N134W TO 27N140W. NW SWELL WILL BUILD NW OF THE
FRONT.

$$
DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260919
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAR 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THU EVENING. THE NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-40 KT
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT THU NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO
BELOW GALE FORCE LATE SAT.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 1012 MB LOW NEAR 5N96W TO 5N113W. ITCZ FROM
5N113W TO 7N130W TO 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 360 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 122W-131W

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N128W TO
23N133W. AN EAST TO WEST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 29N124W. A 75
TO 90 KT JETSTREAM IS S OF THE TROUGH FROM 22N125W TO 22N110W
THEN INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 7N108W TO
THE COAST OF MEXICO AT 16N98W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
GUATEMALA TO THE EQUATOR AT 95W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. NW SWELL N OF 16N BETWEEN
116W-123W...WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT THU NIGHT. CROSS
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS S OF 5N BETWEEN 95-120W WILL SPREAD NNE
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
EXTENDING FROM 32N134W TO 27N140W. NW SWELL WILL BUILD NW OF THE
FRONT.

$$
DGS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260919
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAR 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THU EVENING. THE NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-40 KT
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT THU NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO
BELOW GALE FORCE LATE SAT.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 1012 MB LOW NEAR 5N96W TO 5N113W. ITCZ FROM
5N113W TO 7N130W TO 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 360 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 122W-131W

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N128W TO
23N133W. AN EAST TO WEST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 29N124W. A 75
TO 90 KT JETSTREAM IS S OF THE TROUGH FROM 22N125W TO 22N110W
THEN INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 7N108W TO
THE COAST OF MEXICO AT 16N98W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
GUATEMALA TO THE EQUATOR AT 95W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. NW SWELL N OF 16N BETWEEN
116W-123W...WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT THU NIGHT. CROSS
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS S OF 5N BETWEEN 95-120W WILL SPREAD NNE
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
EXTENDING FROM 32N134W TO 27N140W. NW SWELL WILL BUILD NW OF THE
FRONT.

$$
DGS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260919
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAR 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THU EVENING. THE NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-40 KT
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT THU NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO
BELOW GALE FORCE LATE SAT.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 1012 MB LOW NEAR 5N96W TO 5N113W. ITCZ FROM
5N113W TO 7N130W TO 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 360 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 122W-131W

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N128W TO
23N133W. AN EAST TO WEST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 29N124W. A 75
TO 90 KT JETSTREAM IS S OF THE TROUGH FROM 22N125W TO 22N110W
THEN INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 7N108W TO
THE COAST OF MEXICO AT 16N98W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
GUATEMALA TO THE EQUATOR AT 95W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. NW SWELL N OF 16N BETWEEN
116W-123W...WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT THU NIGHT. CROSS
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS S OF 5N BETWEEN 95-120W WILL SPREAD NNE
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
EXTENDING FROM 32N134W TO 27N140W. NW SWELL WILL BUILD NW OF THE
FRONT.

$$
DGS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260919
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAR 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THU EVENING. THE NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-40 KT
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT THU NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO
BELOW GALE FORCE LATE SAT.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 1012 MB LOW NEAR 5N96W TO 5N113W. ITCZ FROM
5N113W TO 7N130W TO 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 360 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 122W-131W

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N128W TO
23N133W. AN EAST TO WEST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 29N124W. A 75
TO 90 KT JETSTREAM IS S OF THE TROUGH FROM 22N125W TO 22N110W
THEN INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 7N108W TO
THE COAST OF MEXICO AT 16N98W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
GUATEMALA TO THE EQUATOR AT 95W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. NW SWELL N OF 16N BETWEEN
116W-123W...WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT THU NIGHT. CROSS
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS S OF 5N BETWEEN 95-120W WILL SPREAD NNE
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
EXTENDING FROM 32N134W TO 27N140W. NW SWELL WILL BUILD NW OF THE
FRONT.

$$
DGS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 260541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTS THURSDAY MORNING AND PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE BY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SW GULF WATERS S OF 21N W OF 95W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 13W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 04W-17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE EAST OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS OCCURRING AT
THE SURFACE ACROSS THE BASIN THIS EVENING IN SUPPORT OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF WATERS W OF A
LINE FROM 29N90W TO 19N96W. A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS
ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 82W-
86W. LOOKING AHEAD...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND TROUGHING
MOVING EAST...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
NW GULF THURSDAY MORNING...USHERING IN FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF BY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE BASIN BY SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...A STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 09N77W IS
INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR
AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY HOWEVER SHOWS A
FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA...AND ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 71W.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE AS AN OVERALL
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LENDING TO GENTLE TO
OCCASIONAL MODERATE TRADES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE TRADES
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC LATE IN THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING...
HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH NOTED BETWEEN N OF 28N BETWEEN 45W-60W OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM
32N46W SW TO 24N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS LINGER TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 60W-
70W. TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT...SURFACE RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE...HOWEVER A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA FROM 30N80W TO 27N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 75W-80W. FARTHER EAST...THE EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1031 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N22W. THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 20N55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 260541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTS THURSDAY MORNING AND PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE BY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SW GULF WATERS S OF 21N W OF 95W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 13W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 04W-17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE EAST OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS OCCURRING AT
THE SURFACE ACROSS THE BASIN THIS EVENING IN SUPPORT OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF WATERS W OF A
LINE FROM 29N90W TO 19N96W. A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS
ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 82W-
86W. LOOKING AHEAD...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND TROUGHING
MOVING EAST...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
NW GULF THURSDAY MORNING...USHERING IN FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF BY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE BASIN BY SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...A STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 09N77W IS
INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR
AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY HOWEVER SHOWS A
FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA...AND ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 71W.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE AS AN OVERALL
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LENDING TO GENTLE TO
OCCASIONAL MODERATE TRADES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE TRADES
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC LATE IN THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING...
HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH NOTED BETWEEN N OF 28N BETWEEN 45W-60W OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM
32N46W SW TO 24N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS LINGER TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 60W-
70W. TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT...SURFACE RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE...HOWEVER A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA FROM 30N80W TO 27N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 75W-80W. FARTHER EAST...THE EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1031 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N22W. THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 20N55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 260541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTS THURSDAY MORNING AND PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE BY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SW GULF WATERS S OF 21N W OF 95W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 13W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 04W-17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE EAST OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS OCCURRING AT
THE SURFACE ACROSS THE BASIN THIS EVENING IN SUPPORT OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF WATERS W OF A
LINE FROM 29N90W TO 19N96W. A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS
ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 82W-
86W. LOOKING AHEAD...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND TROUGHING
MOVING EAST...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
NW GULF THURSDAY MORNING...USHERING IN FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF BY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE BASIN BY SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...A STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 09N77W IS
INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR
AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY HOWEVER SHOWS A
FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA...AND ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 71W.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE AS AN OVERALL
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LENDING TO GENTLE TO
OCCASIONAL MODERATE TRADES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE TRADES
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC LATE IN THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING...
HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH NOTED BETWEEN N OF 28N BETWEEN 45W-60W OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM
32N46W SW TO 24N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS LINGER TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 60W-
70W. TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT...SURFACE RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE...HOWEVER A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA FROM 30N80W TO 27N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 75W-80W. FARTHER EAST...THE EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1031 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N22W. THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 20N55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 260541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTS THURSDAY MORNING AND PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE BY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SW GULF WATERS S OF 21N W OF 95W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 13W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 04W-17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE EAST OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS OCCURRING AT
THE SURFACE ACROSS THE BASIN THIS EVENING IN SUPPORT OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF WATERS W OF A
LINE FROM 29N90W TO 19N96W. A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS
ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 82W-
86W. LOOKING AHEAD...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND TROUGHING
MOVING EAST...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
NW GULF THURSDAY MORNING...USHERING IN FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF BY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE BASIN BY SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...A STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 09N77W IS
INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR
AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY HOWEVER SHOWS A
FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA...AND ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 71W.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE AS AN OVERALL
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LENDING TO GENTLE TO
OCCASIONAL MODERATE TRADES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE TRADES
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC LATE IN THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING...
HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH NOTED BETWEEN N OF 28N BETWEEN 45W-60W OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM
32N46W SW TO 24N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS LINGER TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 60W-
70W. TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT...SURFACE RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE...HOWEVER A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA FROM 30N80W TO 27N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 75W-80W. FARTHER EAST...THE EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1031 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N22W. THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 20N55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260218
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAR 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY NOT PRESENT ACROSS THE
TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 04N89W
TO 06N94W TO 04N102W...WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 03.5N TO 07N BETWEEN 88W AND 98W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N112W TO BEYOND 06.5N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM S AND 360
NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD AND FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 27-28N W OF
100W WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE NW PORTION EXTENDING FROM 31N131W TO 14N142W. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS E OF THE UPPER RIDGE N OF 21N OVER N
MEXICO. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM 17.5N94.5W ALONG 05N98W THEN SE TO JUST S OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS NEAR 02S91W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING
CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS E PORTIONS. DIFFLUENT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS W PORTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS
PROVIDING GOOD VENTILATION FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE
NEAR THE ITCZ.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 110W...
CENTERED ON A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 33.5N129W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IS
PROMOTING FRESH NW WINDS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
N BAJA PENINSULA...WHICH CONTINUES TO GENERATE MODERATE N-NW
WIND SWELL SPREADING SE ACROSS THE WATERS OFF THE BAJA
PENINSULA....WHERE SEAS REMAIN 7-10 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THERE THROUGH FRI BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AS NEW
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA THU EVENING...THEN
SHIFT SLOWLY SE AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT MORNING.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E TRADE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL
S OF 20N AND W OF 120W DUE TO THE MODEST PRES GRADIENT S OF THE
RIDGE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THERE THROUGH FRI BEFORE THE
NEW HIGH PRES CENTER ALSO BEGINS TO FRESHEN THE TRADEWINDS
ACROSS SW PORTIONS LATE FRI INTO SAT.

ELSEWHERE...THE ENTIRE AREA IS VOID OF STRONG WINDS. TRADEWINDS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL SPILL ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AGAIN
TONIGHT TO PRODUCE WINDS AROUND 20 KT ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE
GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA. LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL
IS SPREADING NE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL
REACH THE PACIFIC COASTLINES THIS EVENING...AND INCREASE THROUGH
FRIDAY TO PRODUCE STRONG AND POWERFUL SURF ALONG LOCAL REEFS AND
BEACHES...AND GENERATE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. THIS SW SWELL
WILL DOMINATE SEAS ACROSS THESE REGIONAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND SPREAD E OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND INTO THE
PACIFIC COASTS OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THU AND REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI MORNING. THIS
STRONG PUSH OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS WITH WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BY FRI AFTERNOON...REACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC BY FRI EVENING.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXNT20 KNHC 252328
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 6N10W TO
1N13W TO 1S20W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 1S20W TO 2S30W TO THE
SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 3S39W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 0N-6N BETWEEN 2W-7W DUE TO MONSOON FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 2N-3S BETWEEN 20W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE SE GULF FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 83W-86W. MORE SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE NW GULF AND NE MEXICO FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 95W-100W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 80W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W.
SUBSIDENCE IS IS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 24N TO INCLUDE W CUBA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO
ENTER THE NW GULF AND EXTEND FROM S LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS WITH
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WIND ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS S OF CUBA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 68W. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER W PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA BETWEEN 77W-
80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
PANAMA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER TRINIDAD.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING THE FORMATION
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1017 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE GEORGIA NEAR 32N82W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN
75W-79W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N50W TO 25N60W TO 24N65W. A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N48W TO 24N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N23W. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 43W. IN THE TROPICS SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 50W-60W MOVING W.
OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC N OF 27N BETWEEN 45W-70W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
31N42W TO 23N52W WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 252328
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 6N10W TO
1N13W TO 1S20W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 1S20W TO 2S30W TO THE
SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 3S39W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 0N-6N BETWEEN 2W-7W DUE TO MONSOON FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 2N-3S BETWEEN 20W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE SE GULF FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 83W-86W. MORE SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE NW GULF AND NE MEXICO FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 95W-100W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 80W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W.
SUBSIDENCE IS IS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 24N TO INCLUDE W CUBA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO
ENTER THE NW GULF AND EXTEND FROM S LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS WITH
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WIND ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS S OF CUBA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 68W. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER W PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA BETWEEN 77W-
80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
PANAMA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER TRINIDAD.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING THE FORMATION
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1017 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE GEORGIA NEAR 32N82W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN
75W-79W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N50W TO 25N60W TO 24N65W. A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N48W TO 24N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N23W. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 43W. IN THE TROPICS SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 50W-60W MOVING W.
OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC N OF 27N BETWEEN 45W-70W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
31N42W TO 23N52W WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 252328
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 6N10W TO
1N13W TO 1S20W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 1S20W TO 2S30W TO THE
SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 3S39W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 0N-6N BETWEEN 2W-7W DUE TO MONSOON FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 2N-3S BETWEEN 20W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE SE GULF FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 83W-86W. MORE SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE NW GULF AND NE MEXICO FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 95W-100W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 80W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W.
SUBSIDENCE IS IS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 24N TO INCLUDE W CUBA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO
ENTER THE NW GULF AND EXTEND FROM S LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS WITH
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WIND ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS S OF CUBA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 68W. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER W PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA BETWEEN 77W-
80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
PANAMA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER TRINIDAD.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING THE FORMATION
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1017 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE GEORGIA NEAR 32N82W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN
75W-79W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N50W TO 25N60W TO 24N65W. A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N48W TO 24N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N23W. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 43W. IN THE TROPICS SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 50W-60W MOVING W.
OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC N OF 27N BETWEEN 45W-70W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
31N42W TO 23N52W WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 252328
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 6N10W TO
1N13W TO 1S20W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 1S20W TO 2S30W TO THE
SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 3S39W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 0N-6N BETWEEN 2W-7W DUE TO MONSOON FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 2N-3S BETWEEN 20W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE SE GULF FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 83W-86W. MORE SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE NW GULF AND NE MEXICO FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 95W-100W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 80W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W.
SUBSIDENCE IS IS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 24N TO INCLUDE W CUBA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO
ENTER THE NW GULF AND EXTEND FROM S LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS WITH
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WIND ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS S OF CUBA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 68W. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER W PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA BETWEEN 77W-
80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
PANAMA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER TRINIDAD.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING THE FORMATION
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1017 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE GEORGIA NEAR 32N82W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN
75W-79W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N50W TO 25N60W TO 24N65W. A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N48W TO 24N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N23W. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 43W. IN THE TROPICS SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 50W-60W MOVING W.
OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC N OF 27N BETWEEN 45W-70W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
31N42W TO 23N52W WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252210
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAR 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY NOT PRESENT ACROSS THE
TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR
00N93.5W TO 05N96W TO 04.5N110W...WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 02N TO 06.5N BETWEEN
90W AND 102W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N115W TO 07N125W TO BEYOND
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 120 NM S AND 300 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD AND FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 29-30N W OF
100W WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE NW PORTION EXTENDING FROM 30N130W TO 20N142W. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS E OF THE UPPER RIDGE N OF 21N OVER
NW MEXICO. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 17.5N94.5W ALONG 05N98W THEN SE TO JUST S OF THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS NEAR 02N91W. DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS W PORTION
OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING GOOD VENTILATION FOR CONVECTION
DESCRIBED ABOVE NEAR THE ITCZ.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 10N W OF
110W...CENTERED ON A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 33.5N129W. THE UPPER
TROUGH S OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS E PORTIONS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
AND LOWER PRES ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PROMOTING FRESH NW
WINDS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE N BAJA
PENINSULA...WHICH CONTINUES TO GENERATE MODERATE NNW WIND SWELL
SPREADING SE ACROSS THE WATERS OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA....WHERE
SEAS REMAIN 7-10 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THERE
THROUGH FRI BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AS NEW HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E TRADE WINDS
GENERALLY PREVAIL S OF 20N AND W OF 120W DUE TO THE MODEST PRES
GRADIENT S OF THE RIDGE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THERE THROUGH
FRI BEFORE THE SAME NEW HIGH PRES CENTER ALSO BEGINS TO FRESHEN
THE TRADEWINDS ACROSS SW PORTIONS LATE FRI INTO SAT.

ELSEWHERE...THE ENTIRE AREA IS VOID OF STRONG WINDS. TRADEWINDS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL SPILL ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AGAIN
TONIGHT TO PRODUCE WINDS AROUND 20 KT ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE
GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA. LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL
IS SPREADING NE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL
REACH THE PACIFIC COASTLINES THIS EVENING...AND INCREASE THROUGH
FRIDAY TO PRODUCE STRONG AND POWERFUL SURF ALONG LOCAL REEFS AND
BEACHES...AND GENERATE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. THIS SW SWELL
WILL DOMINATE SEAS ACROSS THESE REGIONAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND SPREAD E OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND INTO THE
PACIFIC COASTS OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252210
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAR 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY NOT PRESENT ACROSS THE
TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR
00N93.5W TO 05N96W TO 04.5N110W...WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 02N TO 06.5N BETWEEN
90W AND 102W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N115W TO 07N125W TO BEYOND
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 120 NM S AND 300 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD AND FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 29-30N W OF
100W WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE NW PORTION EXTENDING FROM 30N130W TO 20N142W. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS E OF THE UPPER RIDGE N OF 21N OVER
NW MEXICO. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 17.5N94.5W ALONG 05N98W THEN SE TO JUST S OF THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS NEAR 02N91W. DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS W PORTION
OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING GOOD VENTILATION FOR CONVECTION
DESCRIBED ABOVE NEAR THE ITCZ.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 10N W OF
110W...CENTERED ON A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 33.5N129W. THE UPPER
TROUGH S OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS E PORTIONS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
AND LOWER PRES ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PROMOTING FRESH NW
WINDS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE N BAJA
PENINSULA...WHICH CONTINUES TO GENERATE MODERATE NNW WIND SWELL
SPREADING SE ACROSS THE WATERS OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA....WHERE
SEAS REMAIN 7-10 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THERE
THROUGH FRI BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AS NEW HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E TRADE WINDS
GENERALLY PREVAIL S OF 20N AND W OF 120W DUE TO THE MODEST PRES
GRADIENT S OF THE RIDGE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THERE THROUGH
FRI BEFORE THE SAME NEW HIGH PRES CENTER ALSO BEGINS TO FRESHEN
THE TRADEWINDS ACROSS SW PORTIONS LATE FRI INTO SAT.

ELSEWHERE...THE ENTIRE AREA IS VOID OF STRONG WINDS. TRADEWINDS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL SPILL ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AGAIN
TONIGHT TO PRODUCE WINDS AROUND 20 KT ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE
GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA. LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL
IS SPREADING NE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL
REACH THE PACIFIC COASTLINES THIS EVENING...AND INCREASE THROUGH
FRIDAY TO PRODUCE STRONG AND POWERFUL SURF ALONG LOCAL REEFS AND
BEACHES...AND GENERATE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. THIS SW SWELL
WILL DOMINATE SEAS ACROSS THESE REGIONAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND SPREAD E OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND INTO THE
PACIFIC COASTS OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXNT20 KNHC 251736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W
TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 18W TO 02S24W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N23W
TO 02S45W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 06W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04S-02N BETWEEN 16W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER PANAMA EXTENDS N WITH
BROAD RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10
TO 15 KT DOMINATES MUCH OF THE GULF AT THE SURFACE AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH IN
THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS JUST EAST OF THE FL KEYS
AND OVER THE FL STRAITS FROM 25N80W TO 23N82W. THIS SURFACE
TROUGH HAS EXPENDED TO THE NW OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND AS
OF 1500 UTC REACHES AS FAR NW AS 25N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL PENINSULA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...SE FLOW AROUND W ATLC SURFACE RIDGING
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER PANAMA AND COVERS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVELS. THE BASIN IS VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW FROM
JAMAICA TO HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN FRIDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY... HOWEVER
SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE OVERALL
FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE EAST COASTS OF GA AND FL FROM A
SURFACE LOW NOW INLAND OVER GA TO 31N81W TO 27N79W TO 25N80W
...INCLUDING THE NW BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER
TROUGH ALONG 60W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION NEAR 32N52W AND EXTENDS TO 26N67W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N73W. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N55W TO 26N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 50 NM NW OF THE FRONT TO 200 NM SE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED JUST E OF THE AZORES EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLC WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLC ON FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 251736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W
TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 18W TO 02S24W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N23W
TO 02S45W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 06W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04S-02N BETWEEN 16W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER PANAMA EXTENDS N WITH
BROAD RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10
TO 15 KT DOMINATES MUCH OF THE GULF AT THE SURFACE AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH IN
THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS JUST EAST OF THE FL KEYS
AND OVER THE FL STRAITS FROM 25N80W TO 23N82W. THIS SURFACE
TROUGH HAS EXPENDED TO THE NW OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND AS
OF 1500 UTC REACHES AS FAR NW AS 25N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL PENINSULA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...SE FLOW AROUND W ATLC SURFACE RIDGING
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER PANAMA AND COVERS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVELS. THE BASIN IS VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW FROM
JAMAICA TO HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN FRIDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY... HOWEVER
SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE OVERALL
FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE EAST COASTS OF GA AND FL FROM A
SURFACE LOW NOW INLAND OVER GA TO 31N81W TO 27N79W TO 25N80W
...INCLUDING THE NW BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER
TROUGH ALONG 60W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION NEAR 32N52W AND EXTENDS TO 26N67W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N73W. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N55W TO 26N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 50 NM NW OF THE FRONT TO 200 NM SE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED JUST E OF THE AZORES EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLC WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLC ON FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 251736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W
TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 18W TO 02S24W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N23W
TO 02S45W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 06W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04S-02N BETWEEN 16W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER PANAMA EXTENDS N WITH
BROAD RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10
TO 15 KT DOMINATES MUCH OF THE GULF AT THE SURFACE AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH IN
THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS JUST EAST OF THE FL KEYS
AND OVER THE FL STRAITS FROM 25N80W TO 23N82W. THIS SURFACE
TROUGH HAS EXPENDED TO THE NW OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND AS
OF 1500 UTC REACHES AS FAR NW AS 25N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL PENINSULA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...SE FLOW AROUND W ATLC SURFACE RIDGING
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER PANAMA AND COVERS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVELS. THE BASIN IS VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW FROM
JAMAICA TO HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN FRIDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY... HOWEVER
SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE OVERALL
FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE EAST COASTS OF GA AND FL FROM A
SURFACE LOW NOW INLAND OVER GA TO 31N81W TO 27N79W TO 25N80W
...INCLUDING THE NW BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER
TROUGH ALONG 60W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION NEAR 32N52W AND EXTENDS TO 26N67W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N73W. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N55W TO 26N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 50 NM NW OF THE FRONT TO 200 NM SE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED JUST E OF THE AZORES EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLC WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLC ON FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 251736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W
TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 18W TO 02S24W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N23W
TO 02S45W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 06W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04S-02N BETWEEN 16W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER PANAMA EXTENDS N WITH
BROAD RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10
TO 15 KT DOMINATES MUCH OF THE GULF AT THE SURFACE AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH IN
THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS JUST EAST OF THE FL KEYS
AND OVER THE FL STRAITS FROM 25N80W TO 23N82W. THIS SURFACE
TROUGH HAS EXPENDED TO THE NW OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND AS
OF 1500 UTC REACHES AS FAR NW AS 25N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL PENINSULA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...SE FLOW AROUND W ATLC SURFACE RIDGING
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER PANAMA AND COVERS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVELS. THE BASIN IS VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW FROM
JAMAICA TO HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN FRIDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY... HOWEVER
SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE OVERALL
FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE EAST COASTS OF GA AND FL FROM A
SURFACE LOW NOW INLAND OVER GA TO 31N81W TO 27N79W TO 25N80W
...INCLUDING THE NW BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER
TROUGH ALONG 60W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION NEAR 32N52W AND EXTENDS TO 26N67W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N73W. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N55W TO 26N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 50 NM NW OF THE FRONT TO 200 NM SE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED JUST E OF THE AZORES EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLC WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLC ON FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251522
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAR 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT EVIDENT IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. THE ITCZ
BEGINS NEAR 5N103W AND EXTENDS ALONG 7N118W 6N127W TO 6N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210
NM N OF ITCZ FROM 116W TO 124W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN 126W AND 130W...AND
WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ FROM 137W TO 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 30N W OF 118W WITH A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NW PORTION
EXTENDING FROM 31N131W TO 25N137W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
E OF THE UPPER RIDGE N OF 24N E OF 118W TO OVER NW MEXICO. IN
THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N98W ALONG
6N98W THEN SE TO NEAR 1N92W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N
OF 15N W OF 115W WITH A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 33N130W. THE UPPER
TROUGH S OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM 5N100W 3N97W TO 1N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 1N TO 7N BETWEEN 92W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH.

ENTIRE AREA IS VOID OF STRONG WINDS WITH SOME AREA SWELLS BEING
GENERATED. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PRODUCING A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH SWELLS TO 8 FT FROM 8N TO 13N W OF 120W THAT WILL
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SAME SURFACE RIDGE IS PRODUCING GALE
FORCE WINDS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA GIVING THE AREA N OF 26N BETWEEN 115W AND 124W SWELLS
TO 8 TO 10 FT. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THU MORNING. CROSS
EQUATORIAL SWELLS TO 9 FT ARE REACHING TO 4N BETWEEN 95W AND
122W. THESE SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AS WELL AS E
OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WAVE
PERIOD OF 18 TO 20 SEC WILL REACH THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND MEXICO BY THIS EVENING SPREADING N TO ALL OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
BY THU EVENING.

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251522
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAR 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT EVIDENT IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. THE ITCZ
BEGINS NEAR 5N103W AND EXTENDS ALONG 7N118W 6N127W TO 6N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210
NM N OF ITCZ FROM 116W TO 124W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN 126W AND 130W...AND
WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ FROM 137W TO 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 30N W OF 118W WITH A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NW PORTION
EXTENDING FROM 31N131W TO 25N137W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
E OF THE UPPER RIDGE N OF 24N E OF 118W TO OVER NW MEXICO. IN
THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N98W ALONG
6N98W THEN SE TO NEAR 1N92W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N
OF 15N W OF 115W WITH A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 33N130W. THE UPPER
TROUGH S OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM 5N100W 3N97W TO 1N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 1N TO 7N BETWEEN 92W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH.

ENTIRE AREA IS VOID OF STRONG WINDS WITH SOME AREA SWELLS BEING
GENERATED. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PRODUCING A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH SWELLS TO 8 FT FROM 8N TO 13N W OF 120W THAT WILL
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SAME SURFACE RIDGE IS PRODUCING GALE
FORCE WINDS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA GIVING THE AREA N OF 26N BETWEEN 115W AND 124W SWELLS
TO 8 TO 10 FT. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THU MORNING. CROSS
EQUATORIAL SWELLS TO 9 FT ARE REACHING TO 4N BETWEEN 95W AND
122W. THESE SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AS WELL AS E
OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WAVE
PERIOD OF 18 TO 20 SEC WILL REACH THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND MEXICO BY THIS EVENING SPREADING N TO ALL OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
BY THU EVENING.

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251522
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAR 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT EVIDENT IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. THE ITCZ
BEGINS NEAR 5N103W AND EXTENDS ALONG 7N118W 6N127W TO 6N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210
NM N OF ITCZ FROM 116W TO 124W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN 126W AND 130W...AND
WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ FROM 137W TO 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 30N W OF 118W WITH A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NW PORTION
EXTENDING FROM 31N131W TO 25N137W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
E OF THE UPPER RIDGE N OF 24N E OF 118W TO OVER NW MEXICO. IN
THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N98W ALONG
6N98W THEN SE TO NEAR 1N92W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N
OF 15N W OF 115W WITH A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 33N130W. THE UPPER
TROUGH S OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM 5N100W 3N97W TO 1N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 1N TO 7N BETWEEN 92W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH.

ENTIRE AREA IS VOID OF STRONG WINDS WITH SOME AREA SWELLS BEING
GENERATED. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PRODUCING A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH SWELLS TO 8 FT FROM 8N TO 13N W OF 120W THAT WILL
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SAME SURFACE RIDGE IS PRODUCING GALE
FORCE WINDS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA GIVING THE AREA N OF 26N BETWEEN 115W AND 124W SWELLS
TO 8 TO 10 FT. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THU MORNING. CROSS
EQUATORIAL SWELLS TO 9 FT ARE REACHING TO 4N BETWEEN 95W AND
122W. THESE SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AS WELL AS E
OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WAVE
PERIOD OF 18 TO 20 SEC WILL REACH THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND MEXICO BY THIS EVENING SPREADING N TO ALL OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
BY THU EVENING.

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251522
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAR 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT EVIDENT IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. THE ITCZ
BEGINS NEAR 5N103W AND EXTENDS ALONG 7N118W 6N127W TO 6N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210
NM N OF ITCZ FROM 116W TO 124W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN 126W AND 130W...AND
WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ FROM 137W TO 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 30N W OF 118W WITH A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NW PORTION
EXTENDING FROM 31N131W TO 25N137W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
E OF THE UPPER RIDGE N OF 24N E OF 118W TO OVER NW MEXICO. IN
THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N98W ALONG
6N98W THEN SE TO NEAR 1N92W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N
OF 15N W OF 115W WITH A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 33N130W. THE UPPER
TROUGH S OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM 5N100W 3N97W TO 1N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 1N TO 7N BETWEEN 92W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH.

ENTIRE AREA IS VOID OF STRONG WINDS WITH SOME AREA SWELLS BEING
GENERATED. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PRODUCING A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH SWELLS TO 8 FT FROM 8N TO 13N W OF 120W THAT WILL
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SAME SURFACE RIDGE IS PRODUCING GALE
FORCE WINDS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA GIVING THE AREA N OF 26N BETWEEN 115W AND 124W SWELLS
TO 8 TO 10 FT. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THU MORNING. CROSS
EQUATORIAL SWELLS TO 9 FT ARE REACHING TO 4N BETWEEN 95W AND
122W. THESE SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AS WELL AS E
OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WAVE
PERIOD OF 18 TO 20 SEC WILL REACH THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND MEXICO BY THIS EVENING SPREADING N TO ALL OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
BY THU EVENING.

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 251045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
02N16W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND
03W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 02N
BETWEEN 16W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MUCH OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY DRY AND
STABLE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING. A WEAK AREA
OF SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB LOW CENTERED OFF OF
THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N81W TO A 1017 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF PALM BEACH FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W TO A LARGER SCALE
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
25N88W ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TO 18N91W. WHILE
STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE LACKING...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SE GULF S OF 27N E OF 87W. ELSEWHERE...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
INFLUENCES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN GEORGIA TO A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
MEXICO NEAR 22N99W. GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC BREEZE
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AS THIS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N79W IS
INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR
AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
HOWEVER SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS SW OF HISPANIOLA...
AND ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES E OF 66W. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES
ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE AS SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLC TO A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N81W.
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC LATE IN THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING...
HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NOTED
BETWEEN N OF 25N BETWEEN 48W-57W. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N54W SW TO 27N66W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING N OF 27N BETWEEN 44W-57W...AND WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 57W. WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
LACKING ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT...THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WEAKENING TREND AND BECOME DIFFUSE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...SURFACE
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...HOWEVER A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS FROM 35N76W INTO A 1017 MB
LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N81W. THE LOW AND TROUGHING IS PROVIDING
FOCUS FOR SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 27N W OF 76W. FARTHER
EAST...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N25W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW
FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 20N60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 251045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
02N16W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND
03W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 02N
BETWEEN 16W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MUCH OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY DRY AND
STABLE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING. A WEAK AREA
OF SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB LOW CENTERED OFF OF
THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N81W TO A 1017 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF PALM BEACH FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W TO A LARGER SCALE
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
25N88W ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TO 18N91W. WHILE
STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE LACKING...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SE GULF S OF 27N E OF 87W. ELSEWHERE...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
INFLUENCES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN GEORGIA TO A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
MEXICO NEAR 22N99W. GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC BREEZE
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AS THIS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N79W IS
INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR
AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
HOWEVER SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS SW OF HISPANIOLA...
AND ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES E OF 66W. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES
ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE AS SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLC TO A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N81W.
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC LATE IN THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING...
HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NOTED
BETWEEN N OF 25N BETWEEN 48W-57W. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N54W SW TO 27N66W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING N OF 27N BETWEEN 44W-57W...AND WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 57W. WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
LACKING ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT...THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WEAKENING TREND AND BECOME DIFFUSE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...SURFACE
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...HOWEVER A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS FROM 35N76W INTO A 1017 MB
LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N81W. THE LOW AND TROUGHING IS PROVIDING
FOCUS FOR SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 27N W OF 76W. FARTHER
EAST...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N25W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW
FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 20N60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 251045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
02N16W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND
03W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 02N
BETWEEN 16W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MUCH OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY DRY AND
STABLE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING. A WEAK AREA
OF SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB LOW CENTERED OFF OF
THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N81W TO A 1017 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF PALM BEACH FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W TO A LARGER SCALE
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
25N88W ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TO 18N91W. WHILE
STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE LACKING...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SE GULF S OF 27N E OF 87W. ELSEWHERE...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
INFLUENCES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN GEORGIA TO A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
MEXICO NEAR 22N99W. GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC BREEZE
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AS THIS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N79W IS
INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR
AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
HOWEVER SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS SW OF HISPANIOLA...
AND ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES E OF 66W. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES
ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE AS SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLC TO A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N81W.
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC LATE IN THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING...
HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NOTED
BETWEEN N OF 25N BETWEEN 48W-57W. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N54W SW TO 27N66W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING N OF 27N BETWEEN 44W-57W...AND WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 57W. WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
LACKING ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT...THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WEAKENING TREND AND BECOME DIFFUSE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...SURFACE
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...HOWEVER A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS FROM 35N76W INTO A 1017 MB
LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N81W. THE LOW AND TROUGHING IS PROVIDING
FOCUS FOR SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 27N W OF 76W. FARTHER
EAST...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N25W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW
FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 20N60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 251045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
02N16W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND
03W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 02N
BETWEEN 16W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MUCH OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY DRY AND
STABLE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING. A WEAK AREA
OF SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB LOW CENTERED OFF OF
THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N81W TO A 1017 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF PALM BEACH FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W TO A LARGER SCALE
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
25N88W ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TO 18N91W. WHILE
STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE LACKING...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SE GULF S OF 27N E OF 87W. ELSEWHERE...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
INFLUENCES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN GEORGIA TO A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
MEXICO NEAR 22N99W. GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC BREEZE
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AS THIS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N79W IS
INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR
AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
HOWEVER SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS SW OF HISPANIOLA...
AND ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES E OF 66W. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES
ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE AS SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLC TO A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N81W.
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC LATE IN THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING...
HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NOTED
BETWEEN N OF 25N BETWEEN 48W-57W. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N54W SW TO 27N66W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING N OF 27N BETWEEN 44W-57W...AND WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 57W. WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
LACKING ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT...THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WEAKENING TREND AND BECOME DIFFUSE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...SURFACE
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...HOWEVER A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS FROM 35N76W INTO A 1017 MB
LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N81W. THE LOW AND TROUGHING IS PROVIDING
FOCUS FOR SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 27N W OF 76W. FARTHER
EAST...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N25W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW
FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 20N60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250926
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAR 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 4N92W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 4N97W TO 4N110W.
ITCZ FROM 4N110W TO 7N130W TO 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS FROM 120W TO
126W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE
AREA EXTENDS FROM 32N131W TO 20N140W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 120W-130W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS E
OF THE RIDGE N OF 20N...WITH THE FLOW BEING MOSTLY ZONAL. IN THE
DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N98W TO THE
EQUATOR AT 91W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER PANAMA.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 11N W OF 110W. NW SWELL FROM 8N-15N W OF
125W...WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE SWELL WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8
FT WED NIGHT. ALSO NW SWELL TO 9 FT IS NEAR THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...N OF 25N BETWEEN 115W-123W. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE
TO THU THEN SUBSIDE THU NIGHT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS S OF
2N BETWEEN 1002-120W WILL SPREAD NNE THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250926
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAR 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 4N92W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 4N97W TO 4N110W.
ITCZ FROM 4N110W TO 7N130W TO 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS FROM 120W TO
126W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE
AREA EXTENDS FROM 32N131W TO 20N140W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 120W-130W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS E
OF THE RIDGE N OF 20N...WITH THE FLOW BEING MOSTLY ZONAL. IN THE
DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N98W TO THE
EQUATOR AT 91W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER PANAMA.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 11N W OF 110W. NW SWELL FROM 8N-15N W OF
125W...WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE SWELL WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8
FT WED NIGHT. ALSO NW SWELL TO 9 FT IS NEAR THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...N OF 25N BETWEEN 115W-123W. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE
TO THU THEN SUBSIDE THU NIGHT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS S OF
2N BETWEEN 1002-120W WILL SPREAD NNE THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
DGS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 250549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 16W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 06W...AND FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 02N BETWEEN 16W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MUCH OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY DRY AND
STABLE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS EVENING. AS OF 25/0300
UTC...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM ANDROS ISLAND
IN THE BAHAMAS WESTWARD TO THE WESTERN COAST OF CUBA NEAR
23N84W. LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY S OF 25N E OF 86W. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY
OTHER NOTEWORTHY BOUNDARY IS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 23N88W ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TO 17N91W THAT IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE...GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC BREEZE
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
INTO WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N79W IS
INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR
AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
HOWEVER SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES ARE
NOTED ELSEWHERE AS SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
TO A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N80W.
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC LATE IN THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING...
HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NOTED
BETWEEN N OF 25N BETWEEN 50W-60W. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N55W SW TO 28N60W TO 26N72W WHERE
IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE COAST OF
WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF
27N BETWEEN 46W-58W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT
W OF 58W. WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LACKING ON THE WESTERN EXTENT
OF THE FRONT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WEAKENING
TREND AND BECOME DIFFUSE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TO THE NORTH
OF THE FRONT...SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...HOWEVER A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS FROM 35N74W
TO 31N80W TO 28N79W AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SHALLOW ISOLATED
SHOWERS N OF 28N W OF 77W. FARTHER EAST...THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N25W. THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 25N50W TO 22N70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 250549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 16W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 06W...AND FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 02N BETWEEN 16W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MUCH OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY DRY AND
STABLE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS EVENING. AS OF 25/0300
UTC...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM ANDROS ISLAND
IN THE BAHAMAS WESTWARD TO THE WESTERN COAST OF CUBA NEAR
23N84W. LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY S OF 25N E OF 86W. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY
OTHER NOTEWORTHY BOUNDARY IS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 23N88W ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TO 17N91W THAT IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE...GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC BREEZE
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
INTO WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N79W IS
INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR
AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
HOWEVER SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES ARE
NOTED ELSEWHERE AS SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
TO A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N80W.
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC LATE IN THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING...
HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NOTED
BETWEEN N OF 25N BETWEEN 50W-60W. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N55W SW TO 28N60W TO 26N72W WHERE
IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE COAST OF
WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF
27N BETWEEN 46W-58W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT
W OF 58W. WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LACKING ON THE WESTERN EXTENT
OF THE FRONT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WEAKENING
TREND AND BECOME DIFFUSE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TO THE NORTH
OF THE FRONT...SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...HOWEVER A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS FROM 35N74W
TO 31N80W TO 28N79W AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SHALLOW ISOLATED
SHOWERS N OF 28N W OF 77W. FARTHER EAST...THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N25W. THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 25N50W TO 22N70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 250549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 16W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 06W...AND FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 02N BETWEEN 16W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MUCH OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY DRY AND
STABLE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS EVENING. AS OF 25/0300
UTC...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM ANDROS ISLAND
IN THE BAHAMAS WESTWARD TO THE WESTERN COAST OF CUBA NEAR
23N84W. LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY S OF 25N E OF 86W. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY
OTHER NOTEWORTHY BOUNDARY IS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 23N88W ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TO 17N91W THAT IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE...GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC BREEZE
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
INTO WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N79W IS
INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR
AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
HOWEVER SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES ARE
NOTED ELSEWHERE AS SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
TO A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N80W.
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC LATE IN THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING...
HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NOTED
BETWEEN N OF 25N BETWEEN 50W-60W. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N55W SW TO 28N60W TO 26N72W WHERE
IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE COAST OF
WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF
27N BETWEEN 46W-58W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT
W OF 58W. WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LACKING ON THE WESTERN EXTENT
OF THE FRONT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WEAKENING
TREND AND BECOME DIFFUSE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TO THE NORTH
OF THE FRONT...SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...HOWEVER A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS FROM 35N74W
TO 31N80W TO 28N79W AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SHALLOW ISOLATED
SHOWERS N OF 28N W OF 77W. FARTHER EAST...THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N25W. THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 25N50W TO 22N70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 250549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 16W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 06W...AND FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 02N BETWEEN 16W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MUCH OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY DRY AND
STABLE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS EVENING. AS OF 25/0300
UTC...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM ANDROS ISLAND
IN THE BAHAMAS WESTWARD TO THE WESTERN COAST OF CUBA NEAR
23N84W. LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY S OF 25N E OF 86W. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY
OTHER NOTEWORTHY BOUNDARY IS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 23N88W ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TO 17N91W THAT IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE...GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC BREEZE
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
INTO WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N79W IS
INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR
AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
HOWEVER SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES ARE
NOTED ELSEWHERE AS SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
TO A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N80W.
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC LATE IN THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING...
HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NOTED
BETWEEN N OF 25N BETWEEN 50W-60W. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N55W SW TO 28N60W TO 26N72W WHERE
IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE COAST OF
WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF
27N BETWEEN 46W-58W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT
W OF 58W. WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LACKING ON THE WESTERN EXTENT
OF THE FRONT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WEAKENING
TREND AND BECOME DIFFUSE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TO THE NORTH
OF THE FRONT...SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...HOWEVER A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS FROM 35N74W
TO 31N80W TO 28N79W AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SHALLOW ISOLATED
SHOWERS N OF 28N W OF 77W. FARTHER EAST...THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N25W. THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 25N50W TO 22N70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250240
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAR 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 04.5N94W 1010 MB TO
04N101W TO 03N108W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING
ON TO 06N126W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 120W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 32.5N129W AND
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 15N108W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER
MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS OFF
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA OUTWARD TO 118W. ASSOCIATED
NORTHERLY SWELL WITH SEAS TO 9 FT ARE FOUND N OF 24N BETWEEN
114W AND 124W. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY THE NW
SWELL THROUGH WED BEFORE SEAS BEGIN TO FADE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ
TO NEAR 23N AND W OF 120W. NE WINDS WAVES ARE COMBINING WITH NW
SWELL ACROSS THIS AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS 7 TO 9 FT FROM 08N TO 18N
W OF 122W. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WEAKEN...WHICH WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DIMINISH TRADES OVER THESE WESTERN WATERS. THIS
WILL DECREASE THE NE WIND WAVES WHILE THE NW SWELL SUBSIDES. AS
A RESULT...COMBINED SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY THU MORNING.

ELSEWHERE EAST OF 110W... LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS GENERALLY
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GAP WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TONIGHT TO AROUND 20 KT ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULFS OF
PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA. OTHERWISE...FADING LONG PERIOD S SWELL
DOMINATES THE EASTERN TROPICAL WATERS. A STRONG PULSE OF LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THESE WATERS WED...AND REACH THE
COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA BY WED EVENING...AND RAISE OFFSHORE
WAVE HEIGHTS TO 6-9 FT N OF THE EQUATOR WED NIGHT AND THU.

LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A STRONG COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI. THIS STRONG
PUSH OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS
WITH WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BY FRI EVENING.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250240
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAR 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 04.5N94W 1010 MB TO
04N101W TO 03N108W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING
ON TO 06N126W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 120W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 32.5N129W AND
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 15N108W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER
MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS OFF
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA OUTWARD TO 118W. ASSOCIATED
NORTHERLY SWELL WITH SEAS TO 9 FT ARE FOUND N OF 24N BETWEEN
114W AND 124W. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY THE NW
SWELL THROUGH WED BEFORE SEAS BEGIN TO FADE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ
TO NEAR 23N AND W OF 120W. NE WINDS WAVES ARE COMBINING WITH NW
SWELL ACROSS THIS AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS 7 TO 9 FT FROM 08N TO 18N
W OF 122W. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WEAKEN...WHICH WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DIMINISH TRADES OVER THESE WESTERN WATERS. THIS
WILL DECREASE THE NE WIND WAVES WHILE THE NW SWELL SUBSIDES. AS
A RESULT...COMBINED SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY THU MORNING.

ELSEWHERE EAST OF 110W... LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS GENERALLY
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GAP WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TONIGHT TO AROUND 20 KT ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULFS OF
PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA. OTHERWISE...FADING LONG PERIOD S SWELL
DOMINATES THE EASTERN TROPICAL WATERS. A STRONG PULSE OF LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THESE WATERS WED...AND REACH THE
COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA BY WED EVENING...AND RAISE OFFSHORE
WAVE HEIGHTS TO 6-9 FT N OF THE EQUATOR WED NIGHT AND THU.

LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A STRONG COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI. THIS STRONG
PUSH OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS
WITH WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BY FRI EVENING.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250240
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAR 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 04.5N94W 1010 MB TO
04N101W TO 03N108W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING
ON TO 06N126W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 120W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 32.5N129W AND
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 15N108W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER
MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS OFF
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA OUTWARD TO 118W. ASSOCIATED
NORTHERLY SWELL WITH SEAS TO 9 FT ARE FOUND N OF 24N BETWEEN
114W AND 124W. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY THE NW
SWELL THROUGH WED BEFORE SEAS BEGIN TO FADE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ
TO NEAR 23N AND W OF 120W. NE WINDS WAVES ARE COMBINING WITH NW
SWELL ACROSS THIS AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS 7 TO 9 FT FROM 08N TO 18N
W OF 122W. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WEAKEN...WHICH WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DIMINISH TRADES OVER THESE WESTERN WATERS. THIS
WILL DECREASE THE NE WIND WAVES WHILE THE NW SWELL SUBSIDES. AS
A RESULT...COMBINED SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY THU MORNING.

ELSEWHERE EAST OF 110W... LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS GENERALLY
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GAP WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TONIGHT TO AROUND 20 KT ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULFS OF
PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA. OTHERWISE...FADING LONG PERIOD S SWELL
DOMINATES THE EASTERN TROPICAL WATERS. A STRONG PULSE OF LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THESE WATERS WED...AND REACH THE
COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA BY WED EVENING...AND RAISE OFFSHORE
WAVE HEIGHTS TO 6-9 FT N OF THE EQUATOR WED NIGHT AND THU.

LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A STRONG COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI. THIS STRONG
PUSH OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS
WITH WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BY FRI EVENING.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250240
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAR 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 04.5N94W 1010 MB TO
04N101W TO 03N108W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING
ON TO 06N126W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 120W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 32.5N129W AND
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 15N108W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER
MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS OFF
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA OUTWARD TO 118W. ASSOCIATED
NORTHERLY SWELL WITH SEAS TO 9 FT ARE FOUND N OF 24N BETWEEN
114W AND 124W. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY THE NW
SWELL THROUGH WED BEFORE SEAS BEGIN TO FADE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ
TO NEAR 23N AND W OF 120W. NE WINDS WAVES ARE COMBINING WITH NW
SWELL ACROSS THIS AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS 7 TO 9 FT FROM 08N TO 18N
W OF 122W. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WEAKEN...WHICH WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DIMINISH TRADES OVER THESE WESTERN WATERS. THIS
WILL DECREASE THE NE WIND WAVES WHILE THE NW SWELL SUBSIDES. AS
A RESULT...COMBINED SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY THU MORNING.

ELSEWHERE EAST OF 110W... LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS GENERALLY
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GAP WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TONIGHT TO AROUND 20 KT ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULFS OF
PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA. OTHERWISE...FADING LONG PERIOD S SWELL
DOMINATES THE EASTERN TROPICAL WATERS. A STRONG PULSE OF LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THESE WATERS WED...AND REACH THE
COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA BY WED EVENING...AND RAISE OFFSHORE
WAVE HEIGHTS TO 6-9 FT N OF THE EQUATOR WED NIGHT AND THU.

LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A STRONG COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI. THIS STRONG
PUSH OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS
WITH WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BY FRI EVENING.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXNT20 KNHC 242349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE MAR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA
NEAR 5N9W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 15W...TO 1S19W. THE MONSOON
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 1S19W TO 3S30W AND TO THE EQUATOR ALONG
40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 4S BETWEEN 17W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 1S TO 3S BETWEEN 7W AND 9W...AND FROM 1N TO 5S BETWEEN 24W
AND 35W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 44W AND 49W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM SIERRA LEONE TO 5N41W AND 5N58W
IN EASTERN GUYANA.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BECOMES WESTERLY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WIND FLOW AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N NORTHWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO ALONG 22N/23N.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CUTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...ALONG
25N/26N AT 81W...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART AND THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS...TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA ALONG 81W...ALONG THE
REST OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 76W
AND 80W COVERING THE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...TO
NORTHERN COASTAL CUBA. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS THE SOUTHERNMOST
PART OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING
THROUGH 32N58W TO 28N65W TO 26N74W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE AND HAZE ARE BEING REPORTED AT KXIH. LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KGHB...KGRY...
KIKT...KVOA...AND KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREAS THAT ARE TO THE EAST
AND TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN LOUISIANA...IN THE
COASTAL PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...IN PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FROM PERRY WESTWARD...AND AT THE ST.
PETERSBURG FLORIDA AIRPORT.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N FROM 74W EASTWARD...AND FROM
17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 74W AND 82W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 17N NORTHWARD FROM
JAMAICA EASTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW ALSO IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO
THE MEXICO.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE
EAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 20N75W TO 14N70W BEYOND
14N60W. THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGER-SCALE
TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 25N34W 17N45W 12N57W.

A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 21N81W TO THE SOUTH OF
CUBA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
32N37W TO 28N44W TO 23N61W...TO THE 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR CUBA. A RIDGE CONTINUES FROM THE 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER TO CENTRAL HONDURAS.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...THAT IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT EXIST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING
HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...THAT IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI. FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD JAMAICA AND
CUBA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-
WEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF AN EAST-TO-
WEST ORIENTED CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS
HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO
26N70W. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N58W TO 28N65W TO 26N74W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N74W TO SOUTH FLORIDA...ALONG 25N/26N AT
81W...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 48W AND
58W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N54W 26N63W 24N75W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N37W TO
28N44W TO 23N61W...TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 21N81W...TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CANARY
ISLANDS...TO 27N28W...TO 25N34W 17N45W AND 12N57W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 242349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE MAR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA
NEAR 5N9W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 15W...TO 1S19W. THE MONSOON
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 1S19W TO 3S30W AND TO THE EQUATOR ALONG
40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 4S BETWEEN 17W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 1S TO 3S BETWEEN 7W AND 9W...AND FROM 1N TO 5S BETWEEN 24W
AND 35W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 44W AND 49W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM SIERRA LEONE TO 5N41W AND 5N58W
IN EASTERN GUYANA.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BECOMES WESTERLY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WIND FLOW AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N NORTHWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO ALONG 22N/23N.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CUTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...ALONG
25N/26N AT 81W...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART AND THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS...TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA ALONG 81W...ALONG THE
REST OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 76W
AND 80W COVERING THE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...TO
NORTHERN COASTAL CUBA. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS THE SOUTHERNMOST
PART OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING
THROUGH 32N58W TO 28N65W TO 26N74W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE AND HAZE ARE BEING REPORTED AT KXIH. LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KGHB...KGRY...
KIKT...KVOA...AND KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREAS THAT ARE TO THE EAST
AND TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN LOUISIANA...IN THE
COASTAL PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...IN PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FROM PERRY WESTWARD...AND AT THE ST.
PETERSBURG FLORIDA AIRPORT.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N FROM 74W EASTWARD...AND FROM
17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 74W AND 82W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 17N NORTHWARD FROM
JAMAICA EASTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW ALSO IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO
THE MEXICO.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE
EAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 20N75W TO 14N70W BEYOND
14N60W. THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGER-SCALE
TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 25N34W 17N45W 12N57W.

A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 21N81W TO THE SOUTH OF
CUBA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
32N37W TO 28N44W TO 23N61W...TO THE 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR CUBA. A RIDGE CONTINUES FROM THE 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER TO CENTRAL HONDURAS.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...THAT IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT EXIST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING
HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...THAT IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI. FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD JAMAICA AND
CUBA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-
WEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF AN EAST-TO-
WEST ORIENTED CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS
HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO
26N70W. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N58W TO 28N65W TO 26N74W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N74W TO SOUTH FLORIDA...ALONG 25N/26N AT
81W...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 48W AND
58W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N54W 26N63W 24N75W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N37W TO
28N44W TO 23N61W...TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 21N81W...TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CANARY
ISLANDS...TO 27N28W...TO 25N34W 17N45W AND 12N57W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 242349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE MAR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA
NEAR 5N9W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 15W...TO 1S19W. THE MONSOON
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 1S19W TO 3S30W AND TO THE EQUATOR ALONG
40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 4S BETWEEN 17W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 1S TO 3S BETWEEN 7W AND 9W...AND FROM 1N TO 5S BETWEEN 24W
AND 35W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 44W AND 49W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM SIERRA LEONE TO 5N41W AND 5N58W
IN EASTERN GUYANA.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BECOMES WESTERLY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WIND FLOW AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N NORTHWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO ALONG 22N/23N.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CUTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...ALONG
25N/26N AT 81W...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART AND THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS...TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA ALONG 81W...ALONG THE
REST OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 76W
AND 80W COVERING THE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...TO
NORTHERN COASTAL CUBA. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS THE SOUTHERNMOST
PART OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING
THROUGH 32N58W TO 28N65W TO 26N74W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE AND HAZE ARE BEING REPORTED AT KXIH. LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KGHB...KGRY...
KIKT...KVOA...AND KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREAS THAT ARE TO THE EAST
AND TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN LOUISIANA...IN THE
COASTAL PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...IN PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FROM PERRY WESTWARD...AND AT THE ST.
PETERSBURG FLORIDA AIRPORT.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N FROM 74W EASTWARD...AND FROM
17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 74W AND 82W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 17N NORTHWARD FROM
JAMAICA EASTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW ALSO IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO
THE MEXICO.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE
EAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 20N75W TO 14N70W BEYOND
14N60W. THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGER-SCALE
TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 25N34W 17N45W 12N57W.

A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 21N81W TO THE SOUTH OF
CUBA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
32N37W TO 28N44W TO 23N61W...TO THE 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR CUBA. A RIDGE CONTINUES FROM THE 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER TO CENTRAL HONDURAS.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...THAT IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT EXIST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING
HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...THAT IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI. FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD JAMAICA AND
CUBA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-
WEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF AN EAST-TO-
WEST ORIENTED CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS
HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO
26N70W. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N58W TO 28N65W TO 26N74W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N74W TO SOUTH FLORIDA...ALONG 25N/26N AT
81W...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 48W AND
58W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N54W 26N63W 24N75W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N37W TO
28N44W TO 23N61W...TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 21N81W...TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CANARY
ISLANDS...TO 27N28W...TO 25N34W 17N45W AND 12N57W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242132
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAR 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 04.5N93W 1013 MB TO
04N102W TO 03N111W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING
ON TO 06N127W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 08N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 121W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 32.5N129W AND
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 16N109W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER
MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS OFF
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA OUTWARD TO 118W. ASSOCIATED
NORTHERLY SWELL WITH SEAS TO 9 FT ARE CURRENTLY FOUND N OF 24N
BETWEEN 115W AND 124W. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY
THE NW SWELL THROUGH WED BEFORE SEAS BEGIN TO FADE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ
TO NEAR 23N AND W OF 120W. NE WINDS WAVES ARE COMBINING WITH NW
SWELL ACROSS THIS AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS 7 TO 9 FT FROM 08N TO 19N
W OF 121W. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...WHICH WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND DIMINISH TRADES OVER THESE WESTERN WATERS. THIS WILL
DECREASE THE NE WIND WAVES WHILE THE NW SWELL SUBSIDES. AS A
RESULT...COMBINED SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY WED EVENING.

ELSEWHERE EAST OF 110W... LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS GENERALLY
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GAP WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TONIGHT TO AROUND 20 KT ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULFS OF
PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA. OTHERWISE...FADING LONG PERIOD S SWELL
DOMINATES THE EASTERN TROPICAL WATERS. A STRONG PULSE OF LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THESE WATERS WED...AND REACH THE
COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA BY WED EVENING...AND RAISE OFFSHORE
WAVE HEIGHTS TO 6-9 FT N OF THE EQUATOR WED NIGHT AND THU.

LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A STRONG COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI. THIS STRONG
PUSH OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS
WITH WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BY FRI EVENING.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242132
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAR 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 04.5N93W 1013 MB TO
04N102W TO 03N111W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING
ON TO 06N127W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 08N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 121W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 32.5N129W AND
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 16N109W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER
MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS OFF
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA OUTWARD TO 118W. ASSOCIATED
NORTHERLY SWELL WITH SEAS TO 9 FT ARE CURRENTLY FOUND N OF 24N
BETWEEN 115W AND 124W. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY
THE NW SWELL THROUGH WED BEFORE SEAS BEGIN TO FADE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ
TO NEAR 23N AND W OF 120W. NE WINDS WAVES ARE COMBINING WITH NW
SWELL ACROSS THIS AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS 7 TO 9 FT FROM 08N TO 19N
W OF 121W. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...WHICH WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND DIMINISH TRADES OVER THESE WESTERN WATERS. THIS WILL
DECREASE THE NE WIND WAVES WHILE THE NW SWELL SUBSIDES. AS A
RESULT...COMBINED SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY WED EVENING.

ELSEWHERE EAST OF 110W... LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS GENERALLY
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GAP WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TONIGHT TO AROUND 20 KT ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULFS OF
PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA. OTHERWISE...FADING LONG PERIOD S SWELL
DOMINATES THE EASTERN TROPICAL WATERS. A STRONG PULSE OF LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THESE WATERS WED...AND REACH THE
COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA BY WED EVENING...AND RAISE OFFSHORE
WAVE HEIGHTS TO 6-9 FT N OF THE EQUATOR WED NIGHT AND THU.

LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A STRONG COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI. THIS STRONG
PUSH OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS
WITH WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BY FRI EVENING.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242132
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAR 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 04.5N93W 1013 MB TO
04N102W TO 03N111W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING
ON TO 06N127W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 08N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 121W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 32.5N129W AND
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 16N109W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER
MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS OFF
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA OUTWARD TO 118W. ASSOCIATED
NORTHERLY SWELL WITH SEAS TO 9 FT ARE CURRENTLY FOUND N OF 24N
BETWEEN 115W AND 124W. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY
THE NW SWELL THROUGH WED BEFORE SEAS BEGIN TO FADE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ
TO NEAR 23N AND W OF 120W. NE WINDS WAVES ARE COMBINING WITH NW
SWELL ACROSS THIS AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS 7 TO 9 FT FROM 08N TO 19N
W OF 121W. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...WHICH WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND DIMINISH TRADES OVER THESE WESTERN WATERS. THIS WILL
DECREASE THE NE WIND WAVES WHILE THE NW SWELL SUBSIDES. AS A
RESULT...COMBINED SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY WED EVENING.

ELSEWHERE EAST OF 110W... LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS GENERALLY
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GAP WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TONIGHT TO AROUND 20 KT ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULFS OF
PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA. OTHERWISE...FADING LONG PERIOD S SWELL
DOMINATES THE EASTERN TROPICAL WATERS. A STRONG PULSE OF LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THESE WATERS WED...AND REACH THE
COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA BY WED EVENING...AND RAISE OFFSHORE
WAVE HEIGHTS TO 6-9 FT N OF THE EQUATOR WED NIGHT AND THU.

LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A STRONG COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI. THIS STRONG
PUSH OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS
WITH WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BY FRI EVENING.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242132
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAR 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 04.5N93W 1013 MB TO
04N102W TO 03N111W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING
ON TO 06N127W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 08N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 121W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 32.5N129W AND
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 16N109W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER
MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS OFF
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA OUTWARD TO 118W. ASSOCIATED
NORTHERLY SWELL WITH SEAS TO 9 FT ARE CURRENTLY FOUND N OF 24N
BETWEEN 115W AND 124W. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY
THE NW SWELL THROUGH WED BEFORE SEAS BEGIN TO FADE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ
TO NEAR 23N AND W OF 120W. NE WINDS WAVES ARE COMBINING WITH NW
SWELL ACROSS THIS AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS 7 TO 9 FT FROM 08N TO 19N
W OF 121W. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...WHICH WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND DIMINISH TRADES OVER THESE WESTERN WATERS. THIS WILL
DECREASE THE NE WIND WAVES WHILE THE NW SWELL SUBSIDES. AS A
RESULT...COMBINED SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY WED EVENING.

ELSEWHERE EAST OF 110W... LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS GENERALLY
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GAP WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TONIGHT TO AROUND 20 KT ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULFS OF
PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA. OTHERWISE...FADING LONG PERIOD S SWELL
DOMINATES THE EASTERN TROPICAL WATERS. A STRONG PULSE OF LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THESE WATERS WED...AND REACH THE
COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA BY WED EVENING...AND RAISE OFFSHORE
WAVE HEIGHTS TO 6-9 FT N OF THE EQUATOR WED NIGHT AND THU.

LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A STRONG COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI. THIS STRONG
PUSH OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS
WITH WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BY FRI EVENING.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242132
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAR 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 04.5N93W 1013 MB TO
04N102W TO 03N111W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING
ON TO 06N127W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 08N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 121W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 32.5N129W AND
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 16N109W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER
MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS OFF
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA OUTWARD TO 118W. ASSOCIATED
NORTHERLY SWELL WITH SEAS TO 9 FT ARE CURRENTLY FOUND N OF 24N
BETWEEN 115W AND 124W. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY
THE NW SWELL THROUGH WED BEFORE SEAS BEGIN TO FADE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ
TO NEAR 23N AND W OF 120W. NE WINDS WAVES ARE COMBINING WITH NW
SWELL ACROSS THIS AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS 7 TO 9 FT FROM 08N TO 19N
W OF 121W. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...WHICH WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND DIMINISH TRADES OVER THESE WESTERN WATERS. THIS WILL
DECREASE THE NE WIND WAVES WHILE THE NW SWELL SUBSIDES. AS A
RESULT...COMBINED SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY WED EVENING.

ELSEWHERE EAST OF 110W... LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS GENERALLY
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GAP WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TONIGHT TO AROUND 20 KT ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULFS OF
PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA. OTHERWISE...FADING LONG PERIOD S SWELL
DOMINATES THE EASTERN TROPICAL WATERS. A STRONG PULSE OF LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THESE WATERS WED...AND REACH THE
COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA BY WED EVENING...AND RAISE OFFSHORE
WAVE HEIGHTS TO 6-9 FT N OF THE EQUATOR WED NIGHT AND THU.

LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A STRONG COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI. THIS STRONG
PUSH OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS
WITH WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BY FRI EVENING.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242132
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAR 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 04.5N93W 1013 MB TO
04N102W TO 03N111W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING
ON TO 06N127W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 08N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 121W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 32.5N129W AND
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 16N109W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER
MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS OFF
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA OUTWARD TO 118W. ASSOCIATED
NORTHERLY SWELL WITH SEAS TO 9 FT ARE CURRENTLY FOUND N OF 24N
BETWEEN 115W AND 124W. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY
THE NW SWELL THROUGH WED BEFORE SEAS BEGIN TO FADE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ
TO NEAR 23N AND W OF 120W. NE WINDS WAVES ARE COMBINING WITH NW
SWELL ACROSS THIS AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS 7 TO 9 FT FROM 08N TO 19N
W OF 121W. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...WHICH WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND DIMINISH TRADES OVER THESE WESTERN WATERS. THIS WILL
DECREASE THE NE WIND WAVES WHILE THE NW SWELL SUBSIDES. AS A
RESULT...COMBINED SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY WED EVENING.

ELSEWHERE EAST OF 110W... LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS GENERALLY
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GAP WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TONIGHT TO AROUND 20 KT ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULFS OF
PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA. OTHERWISE...FADING LONG PERIOD S SWELL
DOMINATES THE EASTERN TROPICAL WATERS. A STRONG PULSE OF LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THESE WATERS WED...AND REACH THE
COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA BY WED EVENING...AND RAISE OFFSHORE
WAVE HEIGHTS TO 6-9 FT N OF THE EQUATOR WED NIGHT AND THU.

LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A STRONG COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI. THIS STRONG
PUSH OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS
WITH WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BY FRI EVENING.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXNT20 KNHC 241651 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO
01S20W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO THE S AMERICA COAST NEAR
04S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 03S-03N BETWEEN 01W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTHERN ATLC TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...SOUTH FL...AND OVER THE GULF NEAR 26N82W TO
22N90W TO 20N94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM OF
THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF FROM 23N84W AND ACROSS THE FL STRAITS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
EXTENDING FROM 29N89W TO 26N84W. LIMITED MOISTURE IS INHIBITING
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH. A 1018 MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 26N92W SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER
AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE NE GULF. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SE GULF IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS SUPPORTING
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT THAT INHIBITS DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 21N82W IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...WITH LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN
JAMAICA AND CUBA...INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM NEAR THE COAST
OF HONDURAS TO JAMAICA...AND EASTWARD TO PUERTO RICO AND MUCH OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE
BASIN. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATES THE AREA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC ALONG 67W SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N63W TO
27N77W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND S FL NEAR 26N81W. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF...ACROSS THE FL STRAITS
AND OVER THE ATLC FROM 24N80W TO 27N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 50 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT S OF 29N.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BY THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 59W-63W. SURFACE
RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES EXTENDS AN
AXIS SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...SUPPORTING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC E OF 55W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E TO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 241651 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO
01S20W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO THE S AMERICA COAST NEAR
04S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 03S-03N BETWEEN 01W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTHERN ATLC TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...SOUTH FL...AND OVER THE GULF NEAR 26N82W TO
22N90W TO 20N94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM OF
THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF FROM 23N84W AND ACROSS THE FL STRAITS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
EXTENDING FROM 29N89W TO 26N84W. LIMITED MOISTURE IS INHIBITING
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH. A 1018 MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 26N92W SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER
AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE NE GULF. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SE GULF IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS SUPPORTING
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT THAT INHIBITS DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 21N82W IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...WITH LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN
JAMAICA AND CUBA...INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM NEAR THE COAST
OF HONDURAS TO JAMAICA...AND EASTWARD TO PUERTO RICO AND MUCH OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE
BASIN. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATES THE AREA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC ALONG 67W SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N63W TO
27N77W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND S FL NEAR 26N81W. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF...ACROSS THE FL STRAITS
AND OVER THE ATLC FROM 24N80W TO 27N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 50 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT S OF 29N.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BY THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 59W-63W. SURFACE
RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES EXTENDS AN
AXIS SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...SUPPORTING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC E OF 55W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E TO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 241651
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO
01S20W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO THE S AMERICA COAST NEAR
04S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 03S-03N BETWEEN 01W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTHERN ATLC TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...SOUTH FL...AND OVER THE GULF NEAR 26N82W TO
22N90W TO 20N94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM OF
THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF FROM 23N84W AND ACROSS THE FL STRAITS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
EXTENDING FROM 29N89W TO 26N84W. LIMITED MOISTURE IS INHIBITING
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH. A 1018 MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 26N92W SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER
AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE NE GULF. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SE GULF IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS SUPPORTING
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT THAT INHIBITS DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 21N82W IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...WITH LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN
JAMAICA AND CUBA...INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM NEAR THE COAST
OF HONDURAS TO JAMAICA...AND EASTWARD TO PUERTO RICO AND MUCH OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE
BASIN. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATES THE AREA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC ALONG 67W SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N63W TO
27N77W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND S FL NEAR 26N81W. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF...ACROSS THE FL STRAITS
AND OVER THE ATLC FROM 24N80W TO 27N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 50 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT S OF 29N.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BY THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 59W-63W. SURFACE
RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES EXTENDS AN
AXIS SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...SUPPORTING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC E OF 55W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E TO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 241651
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO
01S20W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO THE S AMERICA COAST NEAR
04S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 03S-03N BETWEEN 01W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTHERN ATLC TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...SOUTH FL...AND OVER THE GULF NEAR 26N82W TO
22N90W TO 20N94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM OF
THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF FROM 23N84W AND ACROSS THE FL STRAITS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
EXTENDING FROM 29N89W TO 26N84W. LIMITED MOISTURE IS INHIBITING
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH. A 1018 MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 26N92W SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER
AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE NE GULF. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SE GULF IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS SUPPORTING
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT THAT INHIBITS DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 21N82W IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...WITH LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN
JAMAICA AND CUBA...INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM NEAR THE COAST
OF HONDURAS TO JAMAICA...AND EASTWARD TO PUERTO RICO AND MUCH OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE
BASIN. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATES THE AREA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC ALONG 67W SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N63W TO
27N77W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND S FL NEAR 26N81W. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF...ACROSS THE FL STRAITS
AND OVER THE ATLC FROM 24N80W TO 27N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 50 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT S OF 29N.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BY THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 59W-63W. SURFACE
RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES EXTENDS AN
AXIS SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...SUPPORTING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC E OF 55W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E TO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 241651
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO
01S20W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO THE S AMERICA COAST NEAR
04S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 03S-03N BETWEEN 01W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTHERN ATLC TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...SOUTH FL...AND OVER THE GULF NEAR 26N82W TO
22N90W TO 20N94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM OF
THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF FROM 23N84W AND ACROSS THE FL STRAITS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
EXTENDING FROM 29N89W TO 26N84W. LIMITED MOISTURE IS INHIBITING
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH. A 1018 MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 26N92W SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER
AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE NE GULF. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SE GULF IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS SUPPORTING
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT THAT INHIBITS DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 21N82W IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...WITH LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN
JAMAICA AND CUBA...INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM NEAR THE COAST
OF HONDURAS TO JAMAICA...AND EASTWARD TO PUERTO RICO AND MUCH OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE
BASIN. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATES THE AREA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC ALONG 67W SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N63W TO
27N77W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND S FL NEAR 26N81W. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF...ACROSS THE FL STRAITS
AND OVER THE ATLC FROM 24N80W TO 27N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 50 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT S OF 29N.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BY THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 59W-63W. SURFACE
RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES EXTENDS AN
AXIS SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...SUPPORTING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC E OF 55W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E TO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 241651 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO
01S20W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO THE S AMERICA COAST NEAR
04S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 03S-03N BETWEEN 01W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTHERN ATLC TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...SOUTH FL...AND OVER THE GULF NEAR 26N82W TO
22N90W TO 20N94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM OF
THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF FROM 23N84W AND ACROSS THE FL STRAITS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
EXTENDING FROM 29N89W TO 26N84W. LIMITED MOISTURE IS INHIBITING
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH. A 1018 MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 26N92W SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER
AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE NE GULF. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SE GULF IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS SUPPORTING
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT THAT INHIBITS DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 21N82W IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...WITH LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN
JAMAICA AND CUBA...INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM NEAR THE COAST
OF HONDURAS TO JAMAICA...AND EASTWARD TO PUERTO RICO AND MUCH OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE
BASIN. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATES THE AREA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC ALONG 67W SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N63W TO
27N77W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND S FL NEAR 26N81W. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF...ACROSS THE FL STRAITS
AND OVER THE ATLC FROM 24N80W TO 27N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 50 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT S OF 29N.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BY THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 59W-63W. SURFACE
RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES EXTENDS AN
AXIS SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...SUPPORTING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC E OF 55W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E TO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 241651 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO
01S20W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO THE S AMERICA COAST NEAR
04S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 03S-03N BETWEEN 01W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTHERN ATLC TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...SOUTH FL...AND OVER THE GULF NEAR 26N82W TO
22N90W TO 20N94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM OF
THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF FROM 23N84W AND ACROSS THE FL STRAITS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
EXTENDING FROM 29N89W TO 26N84W. LIMITED MOISTURE IS INHIBITING
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH. A 1018 MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 26N92W SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER
AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE NE GULF. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SE GULF IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS SUPPORTING
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT THAT INHIBITS DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 21N82W IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...WITH LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN
JAMAICA AND CUBA...INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM NEAR THE COAST
OF HONDURAS TO JAMAICA...AND EASTWARD TO PUERTO RICO AND MUCH OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE
BASIN. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATES THE AREA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC ALONG 67W SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N63W TO
27N77W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND S FL NEAR 26N81W. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF...ACROSS THE FL STRAITS
AND OVER THE ATLC FROM 24N80W TO 27N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 50 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT S OF 29N.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BY THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 59W-63W. SURFACE
RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES EXTENDS AN
AXIS SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...SUPPORTING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC E OF 55W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E TO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities