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000
AXNT20 KNHC 241158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 9N13W TO 8N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N18W TO 6N24W
4N36W AND 3N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 19W AND 23W...FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 22W
AND 28W...AND FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 22W AND 25W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 32W AND 42W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE
FROM 12N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...AND FROM 2N TO 9N
BETWEEN 28W AND 42W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 56W AND 30W. THE
WIND FLOW BECOMES DIFFLUENT ALONG 30W. SOME OF IT CONTINUES
NORTHEASTWARD...AND SOME OF IT CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE U.S.A. FROM CENTRAL
SECTIONS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EVERYWHERE. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING FROM MEXICO
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 92W WESTWARD. A COLD FRONT IS
INLAND IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS...SET TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE HAS MOVED FROM THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. A SURFACE TROUGH
IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO GUATEMALA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 26N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 24N86W...TO 26N95W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KXTH...KVBS...

KGBK...KGRY HAS LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES 3 MILES OR
LESS AND FOG...KSPR HAS VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND
FOG...KIPN HAS CLOUD CEILINGS AT 7000 FEET...KIKT...KVOA...
KVKY...KMIS HAS A LOW CLOUD CEILING AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE
OR LESS AND FOG...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND
FOG AND RAINSHOWERS...SOME WITH THUNDER...ARE BEING REPORTED IN
THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG AND PATCHES OF
RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
AND ALABAMA...INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PERRY WESTWARD.
THE SAME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY AREAS OF LOW VISIBILITY ARE ALONG
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA/SAINT
PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA...FROM SARASOTA TO NAPLES.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N74W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N83W.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE MONA PASSAGE
WESTWARD. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM THE MONA PASSAGE
EASTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM
THE MONA PASSAGE EASTWARD. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND
FLOW THAT MOVES THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THAT ENDS UP IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BECOMES DIFFLUENT NEAR 14N56W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
24/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.39 IN HAVANA
CUBA...AND 0.23 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA...
BEYOND 84W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. EARLIER
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN THE AREA FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 78W
AND 81W HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING
ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ALONG 32N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
19N83W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE APPEARS IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE FROM LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA...AND IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER STARTS AT A LOCATION THAT IS ABOUT 275 NM TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA AND IT ENDS UP ON TOP OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
AT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER STARTS AT A LOCATION THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 360 NM TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...AND IT ENDS UP
AT A LOCATION THAT IS ABOUT 410 NM TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N74W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N83W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO
22N44W AND 16N44W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N32W IN
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 29N40W 26N50W 25N60W 25N68W AND
26N69W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N69W TO 30N71W AND BEYOND
32N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS OCCURRING
IN THE WARM SECTOR...FROM 32N TO 36N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN
68W AND 70W...AND FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 46W AND 51W. ISOLATED
MODERATE WITHIN 200 NM TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N30W 31N35W 28N38W 23N45W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 26N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 24N86W...TO 26N95W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 34N58W...THROUGH 32N63W...TO 28N65W...AND TO 26N67W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
13N TO THE 32N32W 25N60W 25N68W 32N70W FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
33N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 241158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 9N13W TO 8N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N18W TO 6N24W
4N36W AND 3N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 19W AND 23W...FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 22W
AND 28W...AND FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 22W AND 25W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 32W AND 42W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE
FROM 12N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...AND FROM 2N TO 9N
BETWEEN 28W AND 42W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 56W AND 30W. THE
WIND FLOW BECOMES DIFFLUENT ALONG 30W. SOME OF IT CONTINUES
NORTHEASTWARD...AND SOME OF IT CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE U.S.A. FROM CENTRAL
SECTIONS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EVERYWHERE. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING FROM MEXICO
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 92W WESTWARD. A COLD FRONT IS
INLAND IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS...SET TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE HAS MOVED FROM THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. A SURFACE TROUGH
IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO GUATEMALA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 26N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 24N86W...TO 26N95W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KXTH...KVBS...

KGBK...KGRY HAS LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES 3 MILES OR
LESS AND FOG...KSPR HAS VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND
FOG...KIPN HAS CLOUD CEILINGS AT 7000 FEET...KIKT...KVOA...
KVKY...KMIS HAS A LOW CLOUD CEILING AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE
OR LESS AND FOG...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND
FOG AND RAINSHOWERS...SOME WITH THUNDER...ARE BEING REPORTED IN
THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG AND PATCHES OF
RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
AND ALABAMA...INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PERRY WESTWARD.
THE SAME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY AREAS OF LOW VISIBILITY ARE ALONG
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA/SAINT
PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA...FROM SARASOTA TO NAPLES.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N74W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N83W.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE MONA PASSAGE
WESTWARD. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM THE MONA PASSAGE
EASTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM
THE MONA PASSAGE EASTWARD. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND
FLOW THAT MOVES THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THAT ENDS UP IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BECOMES DIFFLUENT NEAR 14N56W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
24/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.39 IN HAVANA
CUBA...AND 0.23 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA...
BEYOND 84W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. EARLIER
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN THE AREA FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 78W
AND 81W HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING
ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ALONG 32N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
19N83W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE APPEARS IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE FROM LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA...AND IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER STARTS AT A LOCATION THAT IS ABOUT 275 NM TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA AND IT ENDS UP ON TOP OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
AT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER STARTS AT A LOCATION THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 360 NM TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...AND IT ENDS UP
AT A LOCATION THAT IS ABOUT 410 NM TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N74W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N83W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO
22N44W AND 16N44W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N32W IN
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 29N40W 26N50W 25N60W 25N68W AND
26N69W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N69W TO 30N71W AND BEYOND
32N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS OCCURRING
IN THE WARM SECTOR...FROM 32N TO 36N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN
68W AND 70W...AND FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 46W AND 51W. ISOLATED
MODERATE WITHIN 200 NM TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N30W 31N35W 28N38W 23N45W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 26N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 24N86W...TO 26N95W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 34N58W...THROUGH 32N63W...TO 28N65W...AND TO 26N67W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
13N TO THE 32N32W 25N60W 25N68W 32N70W FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
33N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 241147
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
700 AM EST LUNES 24 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 241147
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
700 AM EST LUNES 24 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART





000
ABNT20 KNHC 241146
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241145
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241145
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241145
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241145
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
ACPN50 PHFO 241145
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON NOV 24 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON OFFICIALLY ENDS ON
NOVEMBER 30. THE FINAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OF THE SEASON WILL
BE ISSUED AT 8 PM ON NOVEMBER 30. WE WILL RESUME ISSUING OUTLOOKS ON
JUNE 1 2015.

$$

RYSHKO





000
ACPN50 PHFO 241145
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON NOV 24 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON OFFICIALLY ENDS ON
NOVEMBER 30. THE FINAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OF THE SEASON WILL
BE ISSUED AT 8 PM ON NOVEMBER 30. WE WILL RESUME ISSUING OUTLOOKS ON
JUNE 1 2015.

$$

RYSHKO






000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241015
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON NOV 24 2014

CORRECTED TO INCLUDE SPECIAL FEATURE

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A GALE TO MINIMAL
STORM FORCE WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON WED.
THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AND FORECAST TO EXIT THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY WED MORNING. THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO REACH
GALE FORCE CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MINIMAL STORM FORCE
CONDITIONS WED MORNING THROUGH THU MORNING WITH GALE CONDITIONS
PERSISTING PROBABLY THROUGH SAT MORNING. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS...WAVEWATCH3 GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS RANGING FROM
20 TO 23 FT. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AT 24/0600 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 09N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR
10N111W 1008 MB TO 09N116W. ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 19N116W TO
08N130W TO 07N140W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW PRES NEAR
10N111W MAINLY FROM 8.5N TO 11N BETWEEN 108W AND 115W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN
116W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1031 MB HIGH PRES CENTER LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 34N132W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 21N112W. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ITCZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE
TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FROM 10N TO 23N W OF 125W.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON THE N SIDE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS N OF 29N BETWEEN 118W-126W. SCATTEROMETER DATA
CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. THE HIGH PRES WILL
MIGRATE NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WEAKENING THE PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS AND DIMINISHING THE AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS SLIGHTLY BY LATE TODAY. AS HIGH PRES
MOVES INLAND OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
BUILD S OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS
JUST OFF THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHERE
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
NW WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE BLOWING ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 8-10
FT. WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES ARE LIKELY TO BE
STRONGER. IN ADDITION...EXPECT NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE
PACIFIC WATERS JUST OFF THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AFFECTING THE AREA FROM 24N TO 28N TO ABOUT 123W WITH
BUILDING SEAS OF 8-12 FT BY MIDDAY TUE.

A NEW COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NW WATERS LATE TUE
REACHING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION BY TUE NIGHT.
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT COVERING THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N135W TO 27N140W BY
MIDDAY TUE WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A
NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL TO THE FORECAST WATERS. THE NW SWELL
ALREADY IN PLACE AND NE WIND WAVES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF
08N W OF 117W WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE THROUGH TUE.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 14N110W TO A 1008 MB LOW PRES
NEAR 10N111W WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. AN
ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 20-25 KT NE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AXIS TO ABOUT 114W. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE
MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS LOW. THE
TROUGH/LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS OF MAINLY 20 KT AND SEAS
OF 8 FT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES.

LOOKING AHEAD...AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS EASTWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...
EXPECT ALSO FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
BEGINNING WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241015
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON NOV 24 2014

CORRECTED TO INCLUDE SPECIAL FEATURE

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A GALE TO MINIMAL
STORM FORCE WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON WED.
THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AND FORECAST TO EXIT THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY WED MORNING. THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO REACH
GALE FORCE CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MINIMAL STORM FORCE
CONDITIONS WED MORNING THROUGH THU MORNING WITH GALE CONDITIONS
PERSISTING PROBABLY THROUGH SAT MORNING. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS...WAVEWATCH3 GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS RANGING FROM
20 TO 23 FT. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AT 24/0600 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 09N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR
10N111W 1008 MB TO 09N116W. ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 19N116W TO
08N130W TO 07N140W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW PRES NEAR
10N111W MAINLY FROM 8.5N TO 11N BETWEEN 108W AND 115W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN
116W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1031 MB HIGH PRES CENTER LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 34N132W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 21N112W. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ITCZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE
TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FROM 10N TO 23N W OF 125W.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON THE N SIDE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS N OF 29N BETWEEN 118W-126W. SCATTEROMETER DATA
CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. THE HIGH PRES WILL
MIGRATE NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WEAKENING THE PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS AND DIMINISHING THE AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS SLIGHTLY BY LATE TODAY. AS HIGH PRES
MOVES INLAND OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
BUILD S OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS
JUST OFF THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHERE
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
NW WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE BLOWING ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 8-10
FT. WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES ARE LIKELY TO BE
STRONGER. IN ADDITION...EXPECT NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE
PACIFIC WATERS JUST OFF THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AFFECTING THE AREA FROM 24N TO 28N TO ABOUT 123W WITH
BUILDING SEAS OF 8-12 FT BY MIDDAY TUE.

A NEW COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NW WATERS LATE TUE
REACHING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION BY TUE NIGHT.
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT COVERING THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N135W TO 27N140W BY
MIDDAY TUE WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A
NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL TO THE FORECAST WATERS. THE NW SWELL
ALREADY IN PLACE AND NE WIND WAVES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF
08N W OF 117W WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE THROUGH TUE.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 14N110W TO A 1008 MB LOW PRES
NEAR 10N111W WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. AN
ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 20-25 KT NE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AXIS TO ABOUT 114W. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE
MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS LOW. THE
TROUGH/LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS OF MAINLY 20 KT AND SEAS
OF 8 FT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES.

LOOKING AHEAD...AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS EASTWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...
EXPECT ALSO FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
BEGINNING WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241015
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON NOV 24 2014

CORRECTED TO INCLUDE SPECIAL FEATURE

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A GALE TO MINIMAL
STORM FORCE WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON WED.
THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AND FORECAST TO EXIT THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY WED MORNING. THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO REACH
GALE FORCE CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MINIMAL STORM FORCE
CONDITIONS WED MORNING THROUGH THU MORNING WITH GALE CONDITIONS
PERSISTING PROBABLY THROUGH SAT MORNING. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS...WAVEWATCH3 GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS RANGING FROM
20 TO 23 FT. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AT 24/0600 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 09N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR
10N111W 1008 MB TO 09N116W. ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 19N116W TO
08N130W TO 07N140W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW PRES NEAR
10N111W MAINLY FROM 8.5N TO 11N BETWEEN 108W AND 115W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN
116W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1031 MB HIGH PRES CENTER LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 34N132W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 21N112W. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ITCZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE
TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FROM 10N TO 23N W OF 125W.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON THE N SIDE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS N OF 29N BETWEEN 118W-126W. SCATTEROMETER DATA
CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. THE HIGH PRES WILL
MIGRATE NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WEAKENING THE PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS AND DIMINISHING THE AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS SLIGHTLY BY LATE TODAY. AS HIGH PRES
MOVES INLAND OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
BUILD S OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS
JUST OFF THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHERE
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
NW WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE BLOWING ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 8-10
FT. WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES ARE LIKELY TO BE
STRONGER. IN ADDITION...EXPECT NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE
PACIFIC WATERS JUST OFF THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AFFECTING THE AREA FROM 24N TO 28N TO ABOUT 123W WITH
BUILDING SEAS OF 8-12 FT BY MIDDAY TUE.

A NEW COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NW WATERS LATE TUE
REACHING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION BY TUE NIGHT.
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT COVERING THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N135W TO 27N140W BY
MIDDAY TUE WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A
NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL TO THE FORECAST WATERS. THE NW SWELL
ALREADY IN PLACE AND NE WIND WAVES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF
08N W OF 117W WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE THROUGH TUE.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 14N110W TO A 1008 MB LOW PRES
NEAR 10N111W WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. AN
ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 20-25 KT NE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AXIS TO ABOUT 114W. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE
MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS LOW. THE
TROUGH/LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS OF MAINLY 20 KT AND SEAS
OF 8 FT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES.

LOOKING AHEAD...AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS EASTWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...
EXPECT ALSO FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
BEGINNING WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241015
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON NOV 24 2014

CORRECTED TO INCLUDE SPECIAL FEATURE

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A GALE TO MINIMAL
STORM FORCE WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON WED.
THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AND FORECAST TO EXIT THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY WED MORNING. THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO REACH
GALE FORCE CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MINIMAL STORM FORCE
CONDITIONS WED MORNING THROUGH THU MORNING WITH GALE CONDITIONS
PERSISTING PROBABLY THROUGH SAT MORNING. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS...WAVEWATCH3 GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS RANGING FROM
20 TO 23 FT. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AT 24/0600 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 09N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR
10N111W 1008 MB TO 09N116W. ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 19N116W TO
08N130W TO 07N140W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW PRES NEAR
10N111W MAINLY FROM 8.5N TO 11N BETWEEN 108W AND 115W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN
116W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1031 MB HIGH PRES CENTER LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 34N132W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 21N112W. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ITCZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE
TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FROM 10N TO 23N W OF 125W.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON THE N SIDE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS N OF 29N BETWEEN 118W-126W. SCATTEROMETER DATA
CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. THE HIGH PRES WILL
MIGRATE NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WEAKENING THE PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS AND DIMINISHING THE AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS SLIGHTLY BY LATE TODAY. AS HIGH PRES
MOVES INLAND OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
BUILD S OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS
JUST OFF THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHERE
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
NW WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE BLOWING ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 8-10
FT. WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES ARE LIKELY TO BE
STRONGER. IN ADDITION...EXPECT NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE
PACIFIC WATERS JUST OFF THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AFFECTING THE AREA FROM 24N TO 28N TO ABOUT 123W WITH
BUILDING SEAS OF 8-12 FT BY MIDDAY TUE.

A NEW COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NW WATERS LATE TUE
REACHING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION BY TUE NIGHT.
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT COVERING THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N135W TO 27N140W BY
MIDDAY TUE WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A
NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL TO THE FORECAST WATERS. THE NW SWELL
ALREADY IN PLACE AND NE WIND WAVES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF
08N W OF 117W WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE THROUGH TUE.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 14N110W TO A 1008 MB LOW PRES
NEAR 10N111W WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. AN
ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 20-25 KT NE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AXIS TO ABOUT 114W. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE
MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS LOW. THE
TROUGH/LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS OF MAINLY 20 KT AND SEAS
OF 8 FT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES.

LOOKING AHEAD...AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS EASTWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...
EXPECT ALSO FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
BEGINNING WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

$$
GR



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 240949
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
100 AM EST DOMINGO 23 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 240949
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
100 AM EST DOMINGO 23 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 240949
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
100 AM EST DOMINGO 23 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 240949
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
100 AM EST DOMINGO 23 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 240949
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
100 AM EST DOMINGO 23 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 240949
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
100 AM EST DOMINGO 23 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN





000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240923
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON NOV 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 09N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR
10N111W 1008 MB TO 09N116W. ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 19N116W TO
08N130W TO 07N140W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW PRES NEAR
10N111W MAINLY FROM 8.5N TO 11N BETWEEN 108W AND 115W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN
116W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1031 MB HIGH PRES CENTER LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 34N132W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 21N112W. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ITCZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE
TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FROM 10N TO 23N W OF 125W.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON THE N SIDE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS N OF 29N BETWEEN 118W-126W. SCATTEROMETER DATA
CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. THE HIGH PRES WILL
MIGRATE NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WEAKENING THE PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS AND DIMINISHING THE AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS SLIGHTLY BY LATE TODAY. AS HIGH PRES
MOVES INLAND OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
BUILD S OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS
JUST OFF THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHERE
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
NW WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE BLOWING ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 8-10
FT. WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES ARE LIKELY TO BE
STRONGER. IN ADDITION...EXPECT NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE
PACIFIC WATERS JUST OFF THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AFFECTING THE AREA FROM 24N TO 28N TO ABOUT 123W WITH
BUILDING SEAS OF 8-12 FT BY MIDDAY TUE.

A NEW COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NW WATERS LATE TUE
REACHING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION BY TUE NIGHT.
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT COVERING THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N135W TO 27N140W BY
MIDDAY TUE WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A
NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL TO THE FORECAST WATERS. THE NW SWELL
ALREADY IN PLACE AND NE WIND WAVES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF
08N W OF 117W WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE THROUGH TUE.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 14N110W TO A 1008 MB LOW PRES
NEAR 10N111W WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. AN
ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 20-25 KT NE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AXIS TO ABOUT 114W. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE
MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS LOW. THE
TROUGH/LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS OF MAINLY 20 KT AND SEAS
OF 8 FT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES.

LOOKING AHEAD...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
GALE TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON WED. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AND
FORECAST TO EXIT THE GULF OF MEXICO BY WED MORNING. THIS EVENT
IS EXPECTED TO REACH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND MINIMAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS WED MORNING THROUGH
THU MORNING WITH GALE CONDITIONS PERSISTING PROBABLY THROUGH SAT
MORNING. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS...WAVEWATCH3
GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS RANGING FROM 20 TO 23 FT. AS THE EVENT
NEARS...CONTINUED MODIFICATION TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST IS
EXPECTED TO BE MADE. AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS EASTWARD IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...EXPECT ALSO FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BEGINING WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240923
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON NOV 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 09N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR
10N111W 1008 MB TO 09N116W. ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 19N116W TO
08N130W TO 07N140W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW PRES NEAR
10N111W MAINLY FROM 8.5N TO 11N BETWEEN 108W AND 115W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN
116W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1031 MB HIGH PRES CENTER LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 34N132W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 21N112W. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ITCZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE
TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FROM 10N TO 23N W OF 125W.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON THE N SIDE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS N OF 29N BETWEEN 118W-126W. SCATTEROMETER DATA
CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. THE HIGH PRES WILL
MIGRATE NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WEAKENING THE PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS AND DIMINISHING THE AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS SLIGHTLY BY LATE TODAY. AS HIGH PRES
MOVES INLAND OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
BUILD S OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS
JUST OFF THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHERE
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
NW WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE BLOWING ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 8-10
FT. WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES ARE LIKELY TO BE
STRONGER. IN ADDITION...EXPECT NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE
PACIFIC WATERS JUST OFF THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AFFECTING THE AREA FROM 24N TO 28N TO ABOUT 123W WITH
BUILDING SEAS OF 8-12 FT BY MIDDAY TUE.

A NEW COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NW WATERS LATE TUE
REACHING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION BY TUE NIGHT.
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT COVERING THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N135W TO 27N140W BY
MIDDAY TUE WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A
NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL TO THE FORECAST WATERS. THE NW SWELL
ALREADY IN PLACE AND NE WIND WAVES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF
08N W OF 117W WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE THROUGH TUE.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 14N110W TO A 1008 MB LOW PRES
NEAR 10N111W WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. AN
ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 20-25 KT NE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AXIS TO ABOUT 114W. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE
MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS LOW. THE
TROUGH/LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS OF MAINLY 20 KT AND SEAS
OF 8 FT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES.

LOOKING AHEAD...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
GALE TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON WED. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AND
FORECAST TO EXIT THE GULF OF MEXICO BY WED MORNING. THIS EVENT
IS EXPECTED TO REACH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND MINIMAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS WED MORNING THROUGH
THU MORNING WITH GALE CONDITIONS PERSISTING PROBABLY THROUGH SAT
MORNING. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS...WAVEWATCH3
GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS RANGING FROM 20 TO 23 FT. AS THE EVENT
NEARS...CONTINUED MODIFICATION TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST IS
EXPECTED TO BE MADE. AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS EASTWARD IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...EXPECT ALSO FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BEGINING WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

$$
GR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 240546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 11N15W TO 8N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N18W TO 8N27W
7N35W AND 3N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 19W AND 28W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 12N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...AND FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN 28W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE U.S.A. FROM CENTRAL
SECTIONS TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 90W WESTWARD.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...TO 23N87W...IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND IN
TEXAS...FROM NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF TEXAS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...AND THEN ALONG AN EAST-TO-WEST LINE THROUGH THE FAR-WEST
OF TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EAST CENTRAL TEXAS...
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO
NEAR 23N99W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KGUL...
KGBK...KGHB...KEIR...KGRY...KMDJ...KIKT...KVOA...KVKY...
KMIS...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG ARE
BEING REPORTED AT NEW IBERIA IN LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED ALSO IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
FROM NEW IBERIA EASTWARD...INCLUDING AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM COASTAL
SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...TO ALABAMA...TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NEAR PERRY. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN PANAMA CITY AND IN
MARIANNA...FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA/SAINT PETERSBURG
METROPOLITAN AREA...FROM SARASOTA TO NAPLES...AND AT THE NAVAL
AIR STATION IN KEY WEST.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N75W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N86W.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE MONA PASSAGE
WESTWARD. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM THE MONA PASSAGE EASTWARD. THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
MOVES FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TOWARD
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT GOES FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND
50W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
24/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.39 IN HAVANA
CUBA...AND 0.23 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N79W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING
ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ALONG 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
17N86W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE APPEARS IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE FROM LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA...AND IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER STARTS AT A LOCATION THAT IS ABOUT 275 NM TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA AND IT ENDS UP ON TOP OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
AT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER STARTS AT A LOCATION THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 360 NM TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...AND IT ENDS UP
AT A LOCATION THAT IS ABOUT 410 NM TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N75W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N86W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N37W IN
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N40W AND 17N41W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 31N37W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N37W TO 27N50W 26N60W AND
27N69W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES 27N69W NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND
32N73W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS OCCURRING
IN THE WARM SECTOR...FROM 31N TO 34N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N30W TO 29N40W...AND FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 46W AND
52W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
13N TO THE 32N34W 31N37W 27N69W 32N73W FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
33N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 240546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 11N15W TO 8N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N18W TO 8N27W
7N35W AND 3N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 19W AND 28W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 12N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...AND FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN 28W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE U.S.A. FROM CENTRAL
SECTIONS TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 90W WESTWARD.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...TO 23N87W...IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND IN
TEXAS...FROM NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF TEXAS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...AND THEN ALONG AN EAST-TO-WEST LINE THROUGH THE FAR-WEST
OF TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EAST CENTRAL TEXAS...
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO
NEAR 23N99W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KGUL...
KGBK...KGHB...KEIR...KGRY...KMDJ...KIKT...KVOA...KVKY...
KMIS...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG ARE
BEING REPORTED AT NEW IBERIA IN LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED ALSO IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
FROM NEW IBERIA EASTWARD...INCLUDING AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM COASTAL
SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...TO ALABAMA...TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NEAR PERRY. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN PANAMA CITY AND IN
MARIANNA...FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA/SAINT PETERSBURG
METROPOLITAN AREA...FROM SARASOTA TO NAPLES...AND AT THE NAVAL
AIR STATION IN KEY WEST.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N75W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N86W.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE MONA PASSAGE
WESTWARD. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM THE MONA PASSAGE EASTWARD. THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
MOVES FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TOWARD
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT GOES FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND
50W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
24/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.39 IN HAVANA
CUBA...AND 0.23 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N79W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING
ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ALONG 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
17N86W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE APPEARS IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE FROM LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA...AND IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER STARTS AT A LOCATION THAT IS ABOUT 275 NM TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA AND IT ENDS UP ON TOP OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
AT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER STARTS AT A LOCATION THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 360 NM TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...AND IT ENDS UP
AT A LOCATION THAT IS ABOUT 410 NM TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N75W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N86W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N37W IN
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N40W AND 17N41W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 31N37W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N37W TO 27N50W 26N60W AND
27N69W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES 27N69W NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND
32N73W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS OCCURRING
IN THE WARM SECTOR...FROM 31N TO 34N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N30W TO 29N40W...AND FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 46W AND
52W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
13N TO THE 32N34W 31N37W 27N69W 32N73W FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
33N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 240546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 11N15W TO 8N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N18W TO 8N27W
7N35W AND 3N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 19W AND 28W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 12N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...AND FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN 28W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE U.S.A. FROM CENTRAL
SECTIONS TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 90W WESTWARD.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...TO 23N87W...IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND IN
TEXAS...FROM NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF TEXAS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...AND THEN ALONG AN EAST-TO-WEST LINE THROUGH THE FAR-WEST
OF TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EAST CENTRAL TEXAS...
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO
NEAR 23N99W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KGUL...
KGBK...KGHB...KEIR...KGRY...KMDJ...KIKT...KVOA...KVKY...
KMIS...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG ARE
BEING REPORTED AT NEW IBERIA IN LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED ALSO IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
FROM NEW IBERIA EASTWARD...INCLUDING AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM COASTAL
SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...TO ALABAMA...TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NEAR PERRY. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN PANAMA CITY AND IN
MARIANNA...FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA/SAINT PETERSBURG
METROPOLITAN AREA...FROM SARASOTA TO NAPLES...AND AT THE NAVAL
AIR STATION IN KEY WEST.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N75W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N86W.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE MONA PASSAGE
WESTWARD. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM THE MONA PASSAGE EASTWARD. THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
MOVES FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TOWARD
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT GOES FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND
50W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
24/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.39 IN HAVANA
CUBA...AND 0.23 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N79W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING
ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ALONG 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
17N86W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE APPEARS IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE FROM LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA...AND IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER STARTS AT A LOCATION THAT IS ABOUT 275 NM TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA AND IT ENDS UP ON TOP OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
AT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER STARTS AT A LOCATION THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 360 NM TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...AND IT ENDS UP
AT A LOCATION THAT IS ABOUT 410 NM TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N75W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N86W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N37W IN
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N40W AND 17N41W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 31N37W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N37W TO 27N50W 26N60W AND
27N69W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES 27N69W NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND
32N73W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS OCCURRING
IN THE WARM SECTOR...FROM 31N TO 34N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N30W TO 29N40W...AND FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 46W AND
52W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
13N TO THE 32N34W 31N37W 27N69W 32N73W FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
33N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 240546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 11N15W TO 8N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N18W TO 8N27W
7N35W AND 3N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 19W AND 28W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 12N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...AND FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN 28W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE U.S.A. FROM CENTRAL
SECTIONS TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 90W WESTWARD.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...TO 23N87W...IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND IN
TEXAS...FROM NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF TEXAS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...AND THEN ALONG AN EAST-TO-WEST LINE THROUGH THE FAR-WEST
OF TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EAST CENTRAL TEXAS...
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO
NEAR 23N99W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KGUL...
KGBK...KGHB...KEIR...KGRY...KMDJ...KIKT...KVOA...KVKY...
KMIS...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG ARE
BEING REPORTED AT NEW IBERIA IN LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED ALSO IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
FROM NEW IBERIA EASTWARD...INCLUDING AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM COASTAL
SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...TO ALABAMA...TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NEAR PERRY. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN PANAMA CITY AND IN
MARIANNA...FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA/SAINT PETERSBURG
METROPOLITAN AREA...FROM SARASOTA TO NAPLES...AND AT THE NAVAL
AIR STATION IN KEY WEST.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N75W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N86W.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE MONA PASSAGE
WESTWARD. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM THE MONA PASSAGE EASTWARD. THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
MOVES FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TOWARD
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT GOES FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND
50W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
24/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.39 IN HAVANA
CUBA...AND 0.23 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N79W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING
ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ALONG 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
17N86W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE APPEARS IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE FROM LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA...AND IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER STARTS AT A LOCATION THAT IS ABOUT 275 NM TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA AND IT ENDS UP ON TOP OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
AT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER STARTS AT A LOCATION THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 360 NM TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...AND IT ENDS UP
AT A LOCATION THAT IS ABOUT 410 NM TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N75W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N86W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N37W IN
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N40W AND 17N41W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 31N37W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N37W TO 27N50W 26N60W AND
27N69W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES 27N69W NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND
32N73W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS OCCURRING
IN THE WARM SECTOR...FROM 31N TO 34N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N30W TO 29N40W...AND FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 46W AND
52W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
13N TO THE 32N34W 31N37W 27N69W 32N73W FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
33N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
ACPN50 PHFO 240530
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SUN NOV 23 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON OFFICIALLY ENDS ON
NOVEMBER 30. THE FINAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OF THE SEASON WILL
BE ISSUED AT 8 PM ON NOVEMBER 30. WE WILL RESUME ISSUING OUTLOOKS ON
JUNE 1 2015.

$$

RYSHKO




000
ACPN50 PHFO 240530
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SUN NOV 23 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON OFFICIALLY ENDS ON
NOVEMBER 30. THE FINAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OF THE SEASON WILL
BE ISSUED AT 8 PM ON NOVEMBER 30. WE WILL RESUME ISSUING OUTLOOKS ON
JUNE 1 2015.

$$

RYSHKO





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 240501
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 240501
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
ABNT20 KNHC 240500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240306
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON NOV 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N82W TO 08N90W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 10N111W 1007 MB TO 10N121W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS
ANALYZED FROM 10N121W TO 10N127W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW PRES
NEAR 10N111W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN
300 NM N AND 210 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 123W AS WELL
AS WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 123W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1028 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 32N135W EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 18N107W. THE PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
FROM 12N TO 20N W OF 125W. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS ENHANCED
WINDS TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE ON THE N SIDE OF A LOW PRES
CENTER NEAR 10N111W. MEANWHILE...A FRESH TO STRONG N BREEZE CAN
ALSO BE FOUND ON THE N SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS N OF 29N BETWEEN
119W-126W. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL MIGRATE NE OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT AND DIMINISHING WINDS TO
A FRESH BREEZE EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY MON. AS HIGH PRES OOZES
INLAND OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BUILD
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OVER PACIFIC WATERS JUST OFF THE
W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHERE NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH A STRONG BREEZE EARLY TUE AND POSSIBLY NEAR
GALE FORCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM 28.5N TO 30N EARLY
TUE. AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E...IT WILL MAKE WAY FOR A NEW COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH NW WATERS LATE TUE. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL TO THE AREA. THE NW SWELL ALREADY
IN PLACE AND NE WIND WAVES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 08N W OF
117W WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE TONIGHT INTO TUE.

CONVECTION NOTED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION IS FOCUSED
FROM THE LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 10N111W WESTWARD TO 131W.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MAXIMUM OF MOISTURE ALONG THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 106W AND 124W. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED NEAR 10N131W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD OVER THIS
AREA TO 09N115W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING VERTICAL
MOTION...AS IS THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER JET HOVERING TO THE EAST OVER THE SURFACE LOW AT 10N111W.
CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE ALONG THE ITCZ OVER CENTRAL
WATERS AS A RESULT.

GAP WINDS...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AND ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER WITH
NEW MEXICO TO THE BORDER WITH CENTRAL ARIZONA HAS INCREASED THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BETWEEN
THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL
MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CURRENTLY N OF 28N IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WILL EXPAND S AND PEAK AT NEAR GALE FORCE MON NIGHT
AND EARLY TUE BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH MIDDAY TUE. WINDS
FUNNELING THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONGER.

$$
SCHAUER


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240306
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON NOV 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N82W TO 08N90W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 10N111W 1007 MB TO 10N121W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS
ANALYZED FROM 10N121W TO 10N127W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW PRES
NEAR 10N111W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN
300 NM N AND 210 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 123W AS WELL
AS WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 123W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1028 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 32N135W EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 18N107W. THE PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
FROM 12N TO 20N W OF 125W. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS ENHANCED
WINDS TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE ON THE N SIDE OF A LOW PRES
CENTER NEAR 10N111W. MEANWHILE...A FRESH TO STRONG N BREEZE CAN
ALSO BE FOUND ON THE N SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS N OF 29N BETWEEN
119W-126W. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL MIGRATE NE OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT AND DIMINISHING WINDS TO
A FRESH BREEZE EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY MON. AS HIGH PRES OOZES
INLAND OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BUILD
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OVER PACIFIC WATERS JUST OFF THE
W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHERE NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH A STRONG BREEZE EARLY TUE AND POSSIBLY NEAR
GALE FORCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM 28.5N TO 30N EARLY
TUE. AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E...IT WILL MAKE WAY FOR A NEW COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH NW WATERS LATE TUE. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL TO THE AREA. THE NW SWELL ALREADY
IN PLACE AND NE WIND WAVES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 08N W OF
117W WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE TONIGHT INTO TUE.

CONVECTION NOTED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION IS FOCUSED
FROM THE LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 10N111W WESTWARD TO 131W.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MAXIMUM OF MOISTURE ALONG THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 106W AND 124W. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED NEAR 10N131W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD OVER THIS
AREA TO 09N115W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING VERTICAL
MOTION...AS IS THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER JET HOVERING TO THE EAST OVER THE SURFACE LOW AT 10N111W.
CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE ALONG THE ITCZ OVER CENTRAL
WATERS AS A RESULT.

GAP WINDS...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AND ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER WITH
NEW MEXICO TO THE BORDER WITH CENTRAL ARIZONA HAS INCREASED THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BETWEEN
THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL
MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CURRENTLY N OF 28N IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WILL EXPAND S AND PEAK AT NEAR GALE FORCE MON NIGHT
AND EARLY TUE BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH MIDDAY TUE. WINDS
FUNNELING THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONGER.

$$
SCHAUER



000
AXNT20 KNHC 232337
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH
A SQUALL LINE FROM 31N86W TO 27N97W. GALE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SQUALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 24/00Z AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NE
GULF. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW BASIN
TONIGHT...WHICH MAY DEVELOP GALE FORCE WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT
IN THE SW GULF. SEE THE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 9N13W
TO 8N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 6N32W TO 4N46W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 18W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM ARIZONA TO
OKLAHOMA AND CONNECTED TO A 993 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 37N96W.
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF...A SURFACE TROUGH IS
LOCATED FROM 30N89W TO 25N93W. TO THE E...THE COMBINATION OF THE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND LOW AND THE DEEP MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE N GULF IS SUPPORTING A SQUALL LINE LOCATED FROM
31N86W TO 27N87W. GALE FORCE WINDS ACCOMPANY THIS SQUALL LINE
AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 28N BETWEEN 83W-86W.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN MAINLY S OF 26N...10-15 KT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAIL AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS TO THE S GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SQUALL LINE TO EXIT THE BASIN WHILE
DISSIPATING. THE COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE U.S. WILL ENTER
THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR
18N82W. DRY AIR AS WELL AS SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE IS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. A WEAK AND BROAD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH NO CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED TO IT. TRADEWINDS OF 10-15 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.
ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE ISLAND. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER IS
PREVAILING. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. A 995 MB LOW IS
LOCATED NEAR 33N91W EXTENDING ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FROM
THAT POINT INTO THE ATLANTIC NEAR 26N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS N OF THIS BOUNDARY N OF 30N BETWEEN 72W-79W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N70W TO 28N47W. FROM THAT
POINT ON...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT INTO THE NE
ATLANTIC NEAR 42N24W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT
WITHIN 100 NM OF THE COLD FRONT...MAINLY N OF 32N. TO THE N OF
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN N OF 28N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
FOR THE COLD FRONT AND STATIONARY FRONT TO WEAKEN. THE WARM
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 232337
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH
A SQUALL LINE FROM 31N86W TO 27N97W. GALE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SQUALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 24/00Z AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NE
GULF. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW BASIN
TONIGHT...WHICH MAY DEVELOP GALE FORCE WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT
IN THE SW GULF. SEE THE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 9N13W
TO 8N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 6N32W TO 4N46W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 18W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM ARIZONA TO
OKLAHOMA AND CONNECTED TO A 993 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 37N96W.
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF...A SURFACE TROUGH IS
LOCATED FROM 30N89W TO 25N93W. TO THE E...THE COMBINATION OF THE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND LOW AND THE DEEP MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE N GULF IS SUPPORTING A SQUALL LINE LOCATED FROM
31N86W TO 27N87W. GALE FORCE WINDS ACCOMPANY THIS SQUALL LINE
AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 28N BETWEEN 83W-86W.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN MAINLY S OF 26N...10-15 KT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAIL AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS TO THE S GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SQUALL LINE TO EXIT THE BASIN WHILE
DISSIPATING. THE COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE U.S. WILL ENTER
THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR
18N82W. DRY AIR AS WELL AS SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE IS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. A WEAK AND BROAD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH NO CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED TO IT. TRADEWINDS OF 10-15 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.
ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE ISLAND. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER IS
PREVAILING. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. A 995 MB LOW IS
LOCATED NEAR 33N91W EXTENDING ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FROM
THAT POINT INTO THE ATLANTIC NEAR 26N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS N OF THIS BOUNDARY N OF 30N BETWEEN 72W-79W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N70W TO 28N47W. FROM THAT
POINT ON...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT INTO THE NE
ATLANTIC NEAR 42N24W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT
WITHIN 100 NM OF THE COLD FRONT...MAINLY N OF 32N. TO THE N OF
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN N OF 28N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
FOR THE COLD FRONT AND STATIONARY FRONT TO WEAKEN. THE WARM
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
ACPN50 PHFO 232336
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SUN NOV 23 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$




000
ACPN50 PHFO 232336
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SUN NOV 23 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 232303
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
ABNT20 KNHC 232300
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232156
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N78W TO 08N94W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 11N110W 1009 MB. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM
11N110W TO 10N128W TO 08N133W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM OF LOW PRES
NEAR 11N110W...EXCEPT 90 NM W QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W
OF 113W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1029 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 32N135W EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD THROUGH 20N115W TO NEAR 18N105W. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS W OF A LINE
FROM 27N140W TO 15N114W TO 06N140W. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS
ENHANCED WINDS TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE ON THE N SIDE OF A
LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 11N110W. MEANWHILE...A FRESH TO STRONG N
BREEZE CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON THE N SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS N OF
29N BETWEEN 117W-123W. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL MIGRATE NE OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT AND DIMINISHING
WINDS TO A FRESH BREEZE EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY MON. AS HIGH PRES
OOZES INLAND OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
BUILD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND JUST OFF THE W COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHERE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH A STRONG BREEZE EARLY TUE AND POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE BY
MIDDAY. AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E...IT WILL MAKE WAY FOR A NEW COLD
FRONT EXPEXTED TO APPROACH NW WATERS TUE. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL TO THE AREA. THE NW SWELL AND NE WIND
WAVES IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 08N W OF 117W WILL
KEEP SEAS IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CONVECTION NOTED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION IS FOCUSED
FROM THE LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 11N110W WESTWARD TO 130W.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MAXIMUM OF MOISTURE ALONG THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 107W AND 123W. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED NEAR 10N130W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD OVER THIS
AREA TO 08N116W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING VERTICAL MOTION AS
IS THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET HOVERING TO THE EAST
OVER THE SURFACE LOW AT 11N110W. CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
ACTIVE ALONG THE ITCZ OVER CENTRAL WATERS AS A RESULT.

GAP WINDS...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY STRETCHES ALONG 34N FROM TEXAS THROUGH
ARIZONA HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL
EXPAND S THROUGH THE GULF THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING WHEN THEY
WILL PEAK AT NEAR GALE FORCE BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH MIDDAY
TUE.

$$
SCHAUER



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232156
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N78W TO 08N94W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 11N110W 1009 MB. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM
11N110W TO 10N128W TO 08N133W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM OF LOW PRES
NEAR 11N110W...EXCEPT 90 NM W QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W
OF 113W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1029 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 32N135W EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD THROUGH 20N115W TO NEAR 18N105W. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS W OF A LINE
FROM 27N140W TO 15N114W TO 06N140W. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS
ENHANCED WINDS TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE ON THE N SIDE OF A
LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 11N110W. MEANWHILE...A FRESH TO STRONG N
BREEZE CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON THE N SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS N OF
29N BETWEEN 117W-123W. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL MIGRATE NE OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT AND DIMINISHING
WINDS TO A FRESH BREEZE EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY MON. AS HIGH PRES
OOZES INLAND OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
BUILD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND JUST OFF THE W COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHERE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH A STRONG BREEZE EARLY TUE AND POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE BY
MIDDAY. AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E...IT WILL MAKE WAY FOR A NEW COLD
FRONT EXPEXTED TO APPROACH NW WATERS TUE. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL TO THE AREA. THE NW SWELL AND NE WIND
WAVES IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 08N W OF 117W WILL
KEEP SEAS IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CONVECTION NOTED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION IS FOCUSED
FROM THE LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 11N110W WESTWARD TO 130W.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MAXIMUM OF MOISTURE ALONG THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 107W AND 123W. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED NEAR 10N130W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD OVER THIS
AREA TO 08N116W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING VERTICAL MOTION AS
IS THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET HOVERING TO THE EAST
OVER THE SURFACE LOW AT 11N110W. CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
ACTIVE ALONG THE ITCZ OVER CENTRAL WATERS AS A RESULT.

GAP WINDS...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY STRETCHES ALONG 34N FROM TEXAS THROUGH
ARIZONA HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL
EXPAND S THROUGH THE GULF THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING WHEN THEY
WILL PEAK AT NEAR GALE FORCE BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH MIDDAY
TUE.

$$
SCHAUER


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232156
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N78W TO 08N94W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 11N110W 1009 MB. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM
11N110W TO 10N128W TO 08N133W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM OF LOW PRES
NEAR 11N110W...EXCEPT 90 NM W QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W
OF 113W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1029 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 32N135W EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD THROUGH 20N115W TO NEAR 18N105W. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS W OF A LINE
FROM 27N140W TO 15N114W TO 06N140W. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS
ENHANCED WINDS TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE ON THE N SIDE OF A
LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 11N110W. MEANWHILE...A FRESH TO STRONG N
BREEZE CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON THE N SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS N OF
29N BETWEEN 117W-123W. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL MIGRATE NE OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT AND DIMINISHING
WINDS TO A FRESH BREEZE EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY MON. AS HIGH PRES
OOZES INLAND OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
BUILD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND JUST OFF THE W COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHERE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH A STRONG BREEZE EARLY TUE AND POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE BY
MIDDAY. AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E...IT WILL MAKE WAY FOR A NEW COLD
FRONT EXPEXTED TO APPROACH NW WATERS TUE. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL TO THE AREA. THE NW SWELL AND NE WIND
WAVES IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 08N W OF 117W WILL
KEEP SEAS IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CONVECTION NOTED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION IS FOCUSED
FROM THE LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 11N110W WESTWARD TO 130W.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MAXIMUM OF MOISTURE ALONG THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 107W AND 123W. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED NEAR 10N130W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD OVER THIS
AREA TO 08N116W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING VERTICAL MOTION AS
IS THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET HOVERING TO THE EAST
OVER THE SURFACE LOW AT 11N110W. CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
ACTIVE ALONG THE ITCZ OVER CENTRAL WATERS AS A RESULT.

GAP WINDS...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY STRETCHES ALONG 34N FROM TEXAS THROUGH
ARIZONA HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL
EXPAND S THROUGH THE GULF THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING WHEN THEY
WILL PEAK AT NEAR GALE FORCE BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH MIDDAY
TUE.

$$
SCHAUER


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232156
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N78W TO 08N94W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 11N110W 1009 MB. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM
11N110W TO 10N128W TO 08N133W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM OF LOW PRES
NEAR 11N110W...EXCEPT 90 NM W QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W
OF 113W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1029 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 32N135W EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD THROUGH 20N115W TO NEAR 18N105W. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS W OF A LINE
FROM 27N140W TO 15N114W TO 06N140W. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS
ENHANCED WINDS TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE ON THE N SIDE OF A
LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 11N110W. MEANWHILE...A FRESH TO STRONG N
BREEZE CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON THE N SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS N OF
29N BETWEEN 117W-123W. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL MIGRATE NE OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT AND DIMINISHING
WINDS TO A FRESH BREEZE EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY MON. AS HIGH PRES
OOZES INLAND OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
BUILD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND JUST OFF THE W COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHERE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH A STRONG BREEZE EARLY TUE AND POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE BY
MIDDAY. AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E...IT WILL MAKE WAY FOR A NEW COLD
FRONT EXPEXTED TO APPROACH NW WATERS TUE. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL TO THE AREA. THE NW SWELL AND NE WIND
WAVES IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 08N W OF 117W WILL
KEEP SEAS IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CONVECTION NOTED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION IS FOCUSED
FROM THE LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 11N110W WESTWARD TO 130W.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MAXIMUM OF MOISTURE ALONG THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 107W AND 123W. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED NEAR 10N130W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD OVER THIS
AREA TO 08N116W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING VERTICAL MOTION AS
IS THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET HOVERING TO THE EAST
OVER THE SURFACE LOW AT 11N110W. CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
ACTIVE ALONG THE ITCZ OVER CENTRAL WATERS AS A RESULT.

GAP WINDS...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY STRETCHES ALONG 34N FROM TEXAS THROUGH
ARIZONA HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL
EXPAND S THROUGH THE GULF THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING WHEN THEY
WILL PEAK AT NEAR GALE FORCE BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH MIDDAY
TUE.

$$
SCHAUER



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 231855
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
100 PM EST DOMINGO 23 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 231855
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
100 PM EST DOMINGO 23 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART




000
AXNT20 KNHC 231754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH
A SQUALL LINE ALONG 30N90W TO 26N92W. GALE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NE GULF. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW BASIN TONIGHT...WHICH MAY DEVELOP
GALE FORCE WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF. SEE THE LATEST
NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 9N13W
TO 8N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N16W TO 6N30W TO 5N45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 14N BETWEEN 12W AND
23W...AND FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W TO 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR
17N82W AND EXTENDS N OVER THE SE GULF AND S FLORIDA. A TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NW GULF SUPPORTS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE S
CENTRAL CONUS NEAR 31N93W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW
ACROSS THE NE GULF FROM 30N89W AND OVER FL NEAR 29N82W.
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS DRAWING DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF S OF THE
WARM FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
AND LOW...AND THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE N GULF IS
SUPPORTING A EAST MOVING SQUALL LINE FROM 29N90W TO 26N92W AND
OTHER CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 85W AND
92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE WARM FRONT E OF 85W. GALE
FORCE WINDS ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL LINE. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE. AWAY FROM THE SQUALL LINE...15 TO 20 KT S TO SE
FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN BASIN WITH S TO SW FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SQUALL LINE
WILL EXIT THE BASIN AND DISSIPATE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NW GULF WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
IN REMNANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE N GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
MONDAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR
17N82W. DRY AIR IN THE REGION AS WELL AS SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS
RIDGE IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
BASIN. A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
BASIN IS INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W
AND 75W INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...AND ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD AND
WINDWARD ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE UPPER RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR
WEATHER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE E CARIBBEAN WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF CONVECTION BASIN-
WIDE.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MOIST AIRMASS INTERACTING WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
ISLAND TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FL NEAR 29N82W TO 25N72W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 78W AND
80W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N72W TO 25N56W AND A COLD
FRONT 25N56W TO 31N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THESE FRONTS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
BASIN N OF 15N E OF 40W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT
AND STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. THE WARM FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 231754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH
A SQUALL LINE ALONG 30N90W TO 26N92W. GALE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NE GULF. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW BASIN TONIGHT...WHICH MAY DEVELOP
GALE FORCE WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF. SEE THE LATEST
NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 9N13W
TO 8N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N16W TO 6N30W TO 5N45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 14N BETWEEN 12W AND
23W...AND FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W TO 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR
17N82W AND EXTENDS N OVER THE SE GULF AND S FLORIDA. A TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NW GULF SUPPORTS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE S
CENTRAL CONUS NEAR 31N93W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW
ACROSS THE NE GULF FROM 30N89W AND OVER FL NEAR 29N82W.
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS DRAWING DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF S OF THE
WARM FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
AND LOW...AND THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE N GULF IS
SUPPORTING A EAST MOVING SQUALL LINE FROM 29N90W TO 26N92W AND
OTHER CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 85W AND
92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE WARM FRONT E OF 85W. GALE
FORCE WINDS ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL LINE. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE. AWAY FROM THE SQUALL LINE...15 TO 20 KT S TO SE
FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN BASIN WITH S TO SW FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SQUALL LINE
WILL EXIT THE BASIN AND DISSIPATE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NW GULF WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
IN REMNANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE N GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
MONDAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR
17N82W. DRY AIR IN THE REGION AS WELL AS SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS
RIDGE IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
BASIN. A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
BASIN IS INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W
AND 75W INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...AND ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD AND
WINDWARD ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE UPPER RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR
WEATHER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE E CARIBBEAN WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF CONVECTION BASIN-
WIDE.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MOIST AIRMASS INTERACTING WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
ISLAND TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FL NEAR 29N82W TO 25N72W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 78W AND
80W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N72W TO 25N56W AND A COLD
FRONT 25N56W TO 31N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THESE FRONTS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
BASIN N OF 15N E OF 40W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT
AND STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. THE WARM FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231752
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231752
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
ABNT20 KNHC 231751
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABNT20 KNHC 231751
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABNT20 KNHC 231751
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABNT20 KNHC 231751
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ACPN50 PHFO 231735
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SUN NOV 23 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

$$





000
ACPN50 PHFO 231735
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SUN NOV 23 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

$$






000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231536
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N92W TO 1009 MB LOW
PRES NEAR 11N109W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N109W TO 10N120W TO
08N132W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 116W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 32N136W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TO NEAR 18N110W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ REMAINS STRONG PRODUCING
A RELATIVELY LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS FROM
13N TO 28N W OF 117W. EARLIER OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA
CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. THE HIGH PRES WILL
MIGRATE NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WEAKENING THE PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS AND DIMINISHING THE AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS SLIGHTLY. BY MON NIGHT...EXPECT
INCREASING SE WINDS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SE
TO S WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT
DEVELOPING N OF 27N W OF 137W ON TUE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO REACH 30N140W BY TUE NIGHT.

CONVECTION REMAINS ACTIVE ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 109W WITH THE MOST
INTENSE ACTIVITY FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF A 1009 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 11N109W AND ALONG THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 130W.

A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE NW AND N-CENTRAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE
SUN INTO MON. THIS SWELL IS MIXING WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES
RELATED TO THE TRADES KEEPING SEAS IN THE 8 TO 11 FT RANGE OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 08N W OF 117W FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

GAP WINDS...FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEGINNING LATE TODAY...
REACHING 24N BY EARLY TUE. THESE WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH OF A BUILDING HIGH PRES SYSTEM
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 FT WITH THIS
WIND EVENT BY LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE.

LOOKING AHEAD...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
GALE TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON WED. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT THROUGH WED. THIS
EVENT IS FORECAST TO REACH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE CONDITIONS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MINIMAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY
WED. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS...WAVEWATCH3 GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEAS RANGING FROM 20 TO 24 FT. AS THE EVENT NEARS...
CONTINUED MODIFICATION TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE
MADE.

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 231232
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH
A STRONG SQUALL LINE ALONG 30N92W TO 26N94W. GALE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT DISSIPATE INLAND NORTHERN FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW BASIN TONIGHT...WHICH MAY DEVELOP
GALE FORCE WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF. SEE LATEST
NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 9N13W
TO 8N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 6N27W TO 5N44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 2N-10N
EAST OF 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CONUS
TO THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 34N64W...WHICH EXTENDS A RIDGE
SW ACROSS FLORIDA. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED
BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE W-NW GULF ALONG
WITH INFLOW OF MOIST AIR FROM THE SW N ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER NE FLORIDA AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 89W. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A WARM FRONT MOVING
ALONG CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE NE GULF SUPPORTS SE WIND FLOW OF 20-
25 KT N OF 27N E OF 88W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE BEING
ANALYZED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W ASSOCIATED WITH A
SQUALL LINE ALONG 30N92W TO 26N94W AND THE TAIL OF A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG 29N95W TO 29N93W. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT EAST
OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH MOIST AIR BEING
ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY SE WIND FLOW OF 20 KT FUELS THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SQUALL LINE...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE AND A COLD FRONT TO EMERGE FROM
TEXAS LATER  TODAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THIS REGION HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER
BASIN ALONG WITH A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA
SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS N OF 14N. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE.
TRADES OF 20 KT ARE EAST OF 80W WHILE A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE
GRADIENT PROVIDES LIGHTER WINDS ON THE NW CARIBBEAN. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT TWO OR THREE
DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A BROAD AND MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND AS
WELL AS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS THAT ALONG WITH LIFTING
SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENHANCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 14N BETWEEN 65W-72W. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N43W SW TO 25N57W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
THEN INTO A WARMN FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 160 NM N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SIMILAR
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE WITHIN 140 NM NORTH AND EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E-NE
CARIBBEAN SEA. ON THE FAR NE ATLC BASIN...A 1004 MB LOW IS NE OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 28N E OF
12W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF
20N. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE SW N ATLC AND THE CENTRAL BASIN
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN BASIN BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 231232
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH
A STRONG SQUALL LINE ALONG 30N92W TO 26N94W. GALE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT DISSIPATE INLAND NORTHERN FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW BASIN TONIGHT...WHICH MAY DEVELOP
GALE FORCE WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF. SEE LATEST
NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 9N13W
TO 8N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 6N27W TO 5N44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 2N-10N
EAST OF 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CONUS
TO THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 34N64W...WHICH EXTENDS A RIDGE
SW ACROSS FLORIDA. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED
BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE W-NW GULF ALONG
WITH INFLOW OF MOIST AIR FROM THE SW N ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER NE FLORIDA AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 89W. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A WARM FRONT MOVING
ALONG CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE NE GULF SUPPORTS SE WIND FLOW OF 20-
25 KT N OF 27N E OF 88W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE BEING
ANALYZED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W ASSOCIATED WITH A
SQUALL LINE ALONG 30N92W TO 26N94W AND THE TAIL OF A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG 29N95W TO 29N93W. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT EAST
OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH MOIST AIR BEING
ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY SE WIND FLOW OF 20 KT FUELS THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SQUALL LINE...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE AND A COLD FRONT TO EMERGE FROM
TEXAS LATER  TODAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THIS REGION HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER
BASIN ALONG WITH A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA
SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS N OF 14N. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE.
TRADES OF 20 KT ARE EAST OF 80W WHILE A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE
GRADIENT PROVIDES LIGHTER WINDS ON THE NW CARIBBEAN. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT TWO OR THREE
DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A BROAD AND MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND AS
WELL AS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS THAT ALONG WITH LIFTING
SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENHANCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 14N BETWEEN 65W-72W. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N43W SW TO 25N57W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
THEN INTO A WARMN FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 160 NM N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SIMILAR
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE WITHIN 140 NM NORTH AND EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E-NE
CARIBBEAN SEA. ON THE FAR NE ATLC BASIN...A 1004 MB LOW IS NE OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 28N E OF
12W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF
20N. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE SW N ATLC AND THE CENTRAL BASIN
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN BASIN BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 231142
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
700 AM EST DOMINGO 23 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 231142
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
700 AM EST DOMINGO 23 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 231142
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
700 AM EST DOMINGO 23 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 231142
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
700 AM EST DOMINGO 23 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231142
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABNT20 KNHC 231141
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABNT20 KNHC 231141
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABNT20 KNHC 231141
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABNT20 KNHC 231141
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ACPN50 PHFO 231130
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SUN NOV 23 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

$$

RYSHKO




000
ACPN50 PHFO 231130
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SUN NOV 23 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

$$

RYSHKO





000
AXNT20 KNHC 231125 RRB
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH
A STRONG SQUALL LINE ALONG 30N92W TO 26N94W. GALE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT DISSIPATE INLAND NORTHERN FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW BASIN TONIGHT...WHICH MAY DEVELOP
GALE FORCE WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF. SEE LATEST
NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 9N13W
TO 8N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 6N27W TO 5N44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 2N-10N
EAST OF 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CONUS
TO THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 34N64W...WHICH EXTENDS A RIDGE
SW ACROSS FLORIDA. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED
BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE W-NW GULF ALONG
WITH INFLOW OF MOIST AIR FROM THE SW N ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER NE FLORIDA AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 89W. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A WARM FRONT MOVING
ALONG CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE NE GULF SUPPORTS SE WIND FLOW OF 20-
25 KT N OF 27N E OF 88W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE BEING
ANALYZED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W ASSOCIATED WITH A
SQUALL LINE ALONG 30N92W TO 26N94W AND THE TAIL OF A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG 29N95W TO 29N93W. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT EAST
OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH MOIST AIR BEING
ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY SE WIND FLOW OF 20 KT FUELS THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SQUALL LINE...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE AND A COLD FRONT TO EMERGE FROM
TEXAS LATER  TODAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THIS REGION HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER
BASIN ALONG WITH A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA
SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS N OF 14N. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE.
TRADES OF 20 KT ARE EAST OF 80W WHILE A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE
GRADIENT PROVIDES LIGHTER WINDS ON THE NW CARIBBEAN. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT TWO OR THREE
DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A BROAD AND MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND AS
WELL AS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS THAT ALONG WITH LIFTING
SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENHANCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 14N BETWEEN 65W-72W. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N43W SW TO 25N57W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
THEN INTO A WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 160 NM N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SIMILAR
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE WITHIN 140 NM NORTH AND EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E-NE
CARIBBEAN SEA. ON THE FAR NE ATLC BASIN...A 1004 MB LOW IS NE OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 28N E OF
12W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF
20N. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE SW N ATLC AND THE CENTRAL BASIN
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN ATLC BY TUESDAY NIGHT
WHEN A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW ATLC WATERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 231125 RRB
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH
A STRONG SQUALL LINE ALONG 30N92W TO 26N94W. GALE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT DISSIPATE INLAND NORTHERN FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW BASIN TONIGHT...WHICH MAY DEVELOP
GALE FORCE WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF. SEE LATEST
NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 9N13W
TO 8N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 6N27W TO 5N44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 2N-10N
EAST OF 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CONUS
TO THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 34N64W...WHICH EXTENDS A RIDGE
SW ACROSS FLORIDA. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED
BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE W-NW GULF ALONG
WITH INFLOW OF MOIST AIR FROM THE SW N ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER NE FLORIDA AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 89W. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A WARM FRONT MOVING
ALONG CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE NE GULF SUPPORTS SE WIND FLOW OF 20-
25 KT N OF 27N E OF 88W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE BEING
ANALYZED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W ASSOCIATED WITH A
SQUALL LINE ALONG 30N92W TO 26N94W AND THE TAIL OF A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG 29N95W TO 29N93W. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT EAST
OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH MOIST AIR BEING
ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY SE WIND FLOW OF 20 KT FUELS THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SQUALL LINE...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE AND A COLD FRONT TO EMERGE FROM
TEXAS LATER  TODAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THIS REGION HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER
BASIN ALONG WITH A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA
SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS N OF 14N. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE.
TRADES OF 20 KT ARE EAST OF 80W WHILE A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE
GRADIENT PROVIDES LIGHTER WINDS ON THE NW CARIBBEAN. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT TWO OR THREE
DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A BROAD AND MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND AS
WELL AS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS THAT ALONG WITH LIFTING
SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENHANCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 14N BETWEEN 65W-72W. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N43W SW TO 25N57W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
THEN INTO A WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 160 NM N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SIMILAR
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE WITHIN 140 NM NORTH AND EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E-NE
CARIBBEAN SEA. ON THE FAR NE ATLC BASIN...A 1004 MB LOW IS NE OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 28N E OF
12W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF
20N. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE SW N ATLC AND THE CENTRAL BASIN
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN ATLC BY TUESDAY NIGHT
WHEN A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW ATLC WATERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 231125 RRB
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH
A STRONG SQUALL LINE ALONG 30N92W TO 26N94W. GALE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT DISSIPATE INLAND NORTHERN FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW BASIN TONIGHT...WHICH MAY DEVELOP
GALE FORCE WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF. SEE LATEST
NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 9N13W
TO 8N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 6N27W TO 5N44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 2N-10N
EAST OF 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CONUS
TO THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 34N64W...WHICH EXTENDS A RIDGE
SW ACROSS FLORIDA. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED
BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE W-NW GULF ALONG
WITH INFLOW OF MOIST AIR FROM THE SW N ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER NE FLORIDA AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 89W. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A WARM FRONT MOVING
ALONG CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE NE GULF SUPPORTS SE WIND FLOW OF 20-
25 KT N OF 27N E OF 88W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE BEING
ANALYZED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W ASSOCIATED WITH A
SQUALL LINE ALONG 30N92W TO 26N94W AND THE TAIL OF A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG 29N95W TO 29N93W. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT EAST
OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH MOIST AIR BEING
ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY SE WIND FLOW OF 20 KT FUELS THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SQUALL LINE...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE AND A COLD FRONT TO EMERGE FROM
TEXAS LATER  TODAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THIS REGION HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER
BASIN ALONG WITH A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA
SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS N OF 14N. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE.
TRADES OF 20 KT ARE EAST OF 80W WHILE A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE
GRADIENT PROVIDES LIGHTER WINDS ON THE NW CARIBBEAN. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT TWO OR THREE
DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A BROAD AND MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND AS
WELL AS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS THAT ALONG WITH LIFTING
SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENHANCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 14N BETWEEN 65W-72W. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N43W SW TO 25N57W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
THEN INTO A WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 160 NM N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SIMILAR
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE WITHIN 140 NM NORTH AND EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E-NE
CARIBBEAN SEA. ON THE FAR NE ATLC BASIN...A 1004 MB LOW IS NE OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 28N E OF
12W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF
20N. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE SW N ATLC AND THE CENTRAL BASIN
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN ATLC BY TUESDAY NIGHT
WHEN A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW ATLC WATERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 231125 RRB
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH
A STRONG SQUALL LINE ALONG 30N92W TO 26N94W. GALE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT DISSIPATE INLAND NORTHERN FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW BASIN TONIGHT...WHICH MAY DEVELOP
GALE FORCE WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF. SEE LATEST
NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 9N13W
TO 8N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 6N27W TO 5N44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 2N-10N
EAST OF 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CONUS
TO THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 34N64W...WHICH EXTENDS A RIDGE
SW ACROSS FLORIDA. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED
BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE W-NW GULF ALONG
WITH INFLOW OF MOIST AIR FROM THE SW N ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER NE FLORIDA AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 89W. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A WARM FRONT MOVING
ALONG CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE NE GULF SUPPORTS SE WIND FLOW OF 20-
25 KT N OF 27N E OF 88W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE BEING
ANALYZED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W ASSOCIATED WITH A
SQUALL LINE ALONG 30N92W TO 26N94W AND THE TAIL OF A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG 29N95W TO 29N93W. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT EAST
OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH MOIST AIR BEING
ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY SE WIND FLOW OF 20 KT FUELS THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SQUALL LINE...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE AND A COLD FRONT TO EMERGE FROM
TEXAS LATER  TODAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THIS REGION HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER
BASIN ALONG WITH A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA
SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS N OF 14N. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE.
TRADES OF 20 KT ARE EAST OF 80W WHILE A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE
GRADIENT PROVIDES LIGHTER WINDS ON THE NW CARIBBEAN. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT TWO OR THREE
DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A BROAD AND MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND AS
WELL AS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS THAT ALONG WITH LIFTING
SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENHANCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 14N BETWEEN 65W-72W. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N43W SW TO 25N57W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
THEN INTO A WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 160 NM N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SIMILAR
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE WITHIN 140 NM NORTH AND EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E-NE
CARIBBEAN SEA. ON THE FAR NE ATLC BASIN...A 1004 MB LOW IS NE OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 28N E OF
12W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF
20N. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE SW N ATLC AND THE CENTRAL BASIN
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN ATLC BY TUESDAY NIGHT
WHEN A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW ATLC WATERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 231125 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH
A STRONG SQUALL LINE ALONG 30N92W TO 26N94W. GALE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT DISSIPATE INLAND NORTHERN FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW BASIN TONIGHT...WHICH MAY DEVELOP
GALE FORCE WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF. SEE LATEST
NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 9N13W
TO 8N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 6N27W TO 5N44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 2N-10N
EAST OF 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CONUS
TO THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 34N64W...WHICH EXTENDS A RIDGE
SW ACROSS FLORIDA. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED
BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE W-NW GULF ALONG
WITH INFLOW OF MOIST AIR FROM THE SW N ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER NE FLORIDA AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 89W. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A WARM FRONT MOVING
ALONG CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE NE GULF SUPPORTS SE WIND FLOW OF 20-
25 KT N OF 27N E OF 88W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE BEING
ANALYZED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W ASSOCIATED WITH A
SQUALL LINE ALONG 30N92W TO 26N94W AND THE TAIL OF A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG 29N95W TO 29N93W. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT EAST
OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH MOIST AIR BEING
ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY SE WIND FLOW OF 20 KT FUELS THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SQUALL LINE...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE AND A COLD FRONT TO EMERGE FROM
TEXAS LATER  TODAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THIS REGION HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER
BASIN ALONG WITH A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA
SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS N OF 14N. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE.
TRADES OF 20 KT ARE EAST OF 80W WHILE A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE
GRADIENT PROVIDES LIGHTER WINDS ON THE NW CARIBBEAN. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT TWO OR THREE
DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A BROAD AND MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND AS
WELL AS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS THAT ALONG WITH LIFTING
SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENHANCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 14N BETWEEN 65W-72W. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N43W SW TO 25N57W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
THEN INTO A WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 160 NM N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SIMILAR
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE WITHIN 140 NM NORTH AND EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E-NE
CARIBBEAN SEA. ON THE FAR NE ATLC BASIN...A 1004 MB LOW IS NE OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 28N E OF
12W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF
20N. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE SW N ATLC AND THE CENTRAL BASIN
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN ATLC BY TUESDAY NIGHT
WHEN A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW ATLC WATERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 231125 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH
A STRONG SQUALL LINE ALONG 30N92W TO 26N94W. GALE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT DISSIPATE INLAND NORTHERN FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW BASIN TONIGHT...WHICH MAY DEVELOP
GALE FORCE WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF. SEE LATEST
NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 9N13W
TO 8N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 6N27W TO 5N44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 2N-10N
EAST OF 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CONUS
TO THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 34N64W...WHICH EXTENDS A RIDGE
SW ACROSS FLORIDA. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED
BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE W-NW GULF ALONG
WITH INFLOW OF MOIST AIR FROM THE SW N ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER NE FLORIDA AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 89W. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A WARM FRONT MOVING
ALONG CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE NE GULF SUPPORTS SE WIND FLOW OF 20-
25 KT N OF 27N E OF 88W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE BEING
ANALYZED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W ASSOCIATED WITH A
SQUALL LINE ALONG 30N92W TO 26N94W AND THE TAIL OF A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG 29N95W TO 29N93W. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT EAST
OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH MOIST AIR BEING
ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY SE WIND FLOW OF 20 KT FUELS THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SQUALL LINE...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE AND A COLD FRONT TO EMERGE FROM
TEXAS LATER  TODAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THIS REGION HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER
BASIN ALONG WITH A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA
SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS N OF 14N. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE.
TRADES OF 20 KT ARE EAST OF 80W WHILE A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE
GRADIENT PROVIDES LIGHTER WINDS ON THE NW CARIBBEAN. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT TWO OR THREE
DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A BROAD AND MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND AS
WELL AS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS THAT ALONG WITH LIFTING
SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENHANCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 14N BETWEEN 65W-72W. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N43W SW TO 25N57W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
THEN INTO A WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 160 NM N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SIMILAR
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE WITHIN 140 NM NORTH AND EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E-NE
CARIBBEAN SEA. ON THE FAR NE ATLC BASIN...A 1004 MB LOW IS NE OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 28N E OF
12W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF
20N. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE SW N ATLC AND THE CENTRAL BASIN
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN ATLC BY TUESDAY NIGHT
WHEN A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW ATLC WATERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230920
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N95W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES
NEAR 10N108W TO 10N112W. ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 10N112W TO LOW
PRES NEAR 11N121W 1009 MB TO 09N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 12N106W TO
10N109W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR 11N104W. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 06N TO
10N BETWEEN 120W AND 129W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING
TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1028 MB HIGH PRES CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32N135W EXTENDS A RIDGE
SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 17N105W. THE PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
FROM 10N-27N W OF 120W. SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE
PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. THE HIGH PRES WILL MIGRATE NE OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER W WATERS AND
SHRINKING THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS. BY MON NIGHT...
EXPECT INCREASING SE WINDS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MARINE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SE TO S WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 8-10
FT PARTICULARLY N OF 27N W OF 134W. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO REACH 30N140W BY TUE NIGHT.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 15N120W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES
NEAR 11N122W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN WHILE BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AREA OF TRADES AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS BY LATE TODAY. CONVECTION HAS ALMOST DISSIPATED
E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND NOW SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM S
QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER.

A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE NW AND N-CENTRAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE
SUN AND MON. THIS SWELL IS MIXING WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES
RELATED TO THE TRADES KEEPING SEAS IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 08N W OF 117W FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

GAP WINDS...FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEGINNING LATE TODAY...
REACHING 25N BY MIDDAY MON. THESE WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH OF A BUILDING HIGH PRES
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 7-8 FT WITH
THIS WIND EVENT BY LATE MON.

LOOKING AHEAD...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
GALE TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON WED. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT THROUGH WED. THIS
EVENT IS FORECAST TO REACH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE CONDITIONS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MINIMAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY
WED. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS...WAVEWATCH3 GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEAS RANGING FROM 20 TO 24 FT. AS THE EVENT NEARS...
CONTINUED MODIFICATION TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE
MADE.

$$
GR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230920
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N95W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES
NEAR 10N108W TO 10N112W. ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 10N112W TO LOW
PRES NEAR 11N121W 1009 MB TO 09N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 12N106W TO
10N109W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR 11N104W. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 06N TO
10N BETWEEN 120W AND 129W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING
TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1028 MB HIGH PRES CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32N135W EXTENDS A RIDGE
SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 17N105W. THE PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
FROM 10N-27N W OF 120W. SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE
PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. THE HIGH PRES WILL MIGRATE NE OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER W WATERS AND
SHRINKING THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS. BY MON NIGHT...
EXPECT INCREASING SE WINDS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MARINE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SE TO S WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 8-10
FT PARTICULARLY N OF 27N W OF 134W. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO REACH 30N140W BY TUE NIGHT.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 15N120W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES
NEAR 11N122W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN WHILE BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AREA OF TRADES AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS BY LATE TODAY. CONVECTION HAS ALMOST DISSIPATED
E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND NOW SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM S
QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER.

A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE NW AND N-CENTRAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE
SUN AND MON. THIS SWELL IS MIXING WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES
RELATED TO THE TRADES KEEPING SEAS IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 08N W OF 117W FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

GAP WINDS...FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEGINNING LATE TODAY...
REACHING 25N BY MIDDAY MON. THESE WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH OF A BUILDING HIGH PRES
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 7-8 FT WITH
THIS WIND EVENT BY LATE MON.

LOOKING AHEAD...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
GALE TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON WED. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT THROUGH WED. THIS
EVENT IS FORECAST TO REACH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE CONDITIONS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MINIMAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY
WED. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS...WAVEWATCH3 GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEAS RANGING FROM 20 TO 24 FT. AS THE EVENT NEARS...
CONTINUED MODIFICATION TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE
MADE.

$$
GR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 230606
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR
9N13W TO 7N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 5N30W TO
5N40W TO THE COAST OF NE BRAZIL NEAR 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 17W AND
27W AS WELL AS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 26W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CONUS
TO THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 34N67W...WHICH EXTENDS A RIDGE
SW ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE E-NE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE IS BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N85W TO
25N86W. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE W-NW GULF ALONG WITH
INFLOWS OF MOIST AIR FROM THE SW N ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 27N E OF 91W. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE...THE SURFACE TROUGH
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA
TO THE SE GULF SUPPORTS E-SE WIND FLOW OF 20-25 KT E OF 88W. A
MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF 23N WEST OF 88W PROVIDES FOR
E-SE WIND FLOW OF 15 KT. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE BEING
ANALYZED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 93W ASSOCIATED WITH A
SQUALL LINE ALONG 28N96W SW TO NE MEXICO NEAR 24N98W AND THE
TAIL OF A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 29N96W TO 28N91W. THESE
FEATURES COINCIDES WITH THE LOCATION OF THE BASE OF THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE. MOIST AIR BEING ADVECTED
FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY SE WIND FLOW OF 20 KT FUELS THE CONVECTION
IN THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE.
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
THROUGH SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE
AND A COLD FRONT TO EMERGE FROM TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THIS REGION HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER
BASIN ALONG WITH A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO
AND HISPANIOLA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS N OF 14N.
FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 15-20 KT ARE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WHILE A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT
PROVIDES LIGHTER WINDS ON THE NW CARIBBEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A BROAD AND MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND AS
WELL AS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS THAT ALONG WITH LIFTING
SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 14N E OF 72W. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
DRIFT WESTWARD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N47W SW TO 26N57W
TO 24N70W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 160 NM E OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 26N...SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITHIN
160 NM N OF THE FRONT W OF 60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS BEING ENHANCED BY A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 20N. THE RIDGE OVER
THE NW ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS PUSHING THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE EASTERN ATLC WHERE IT
WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 230606
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR
9N13W TO 7N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 5N30W TO
5N40W TO THE COAST OF NE BRAZIL NEAR 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 17W AND
27W AS WELL AS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 26W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CONUS
TO THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 34N67W...WHICH EXTENDS A RIDGE
SW ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE E-NE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE IS BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N85W TO
25N86W. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE W-NW GULF ALONG WITH
INFLOWS OF MOIST AIR FROM THE SW N ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 27N E OF 91W. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE...THE SURFACE TROUGH
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA
TO THE SE GULF SUPPORTS E-SE WIND FLOW OF 20-25 KT E OF 88W. A
MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF 23N WEST OF 88W PROVIDES FOR
E-SE WIND FLOW OF 15 KT. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE BEING
ANALYZED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 93W ASSOCIATED WITH A
SQUALL LINE ALONG 28N96W SW TO NE MEXICO NEAR 24N98W AND THE
TAIL OF A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 29N96W TO 28N91W. THESE
FEATURES COINCIDES WITH THE LOCATION OF THE BASE OF THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE. MOIST AIR BEING ADVECTED
FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY SE WIND FLOW OF 20 KT FUELS THE CONVECTION
IN THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE.
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
THROUGH SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE
AND A COLD FRONT TO EMERGE FROM TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THIS REGION HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER
BASIN ALONG WITH A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO
AND HISPANIOLA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS N OF 14N.
FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 15-20 KT ARE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WHILE A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT
PROVIDES LIGHTER WINDS ON THE NW CARIBBEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A BROAD AND MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND AS
WELL AS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS THAT ALONG WITH LIFTING
SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 14N E OF 72W. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
DRIFT WESTWARD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N47W SW TO 26N57W
TO 24N70W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 160 NM E OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 26N...SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITHIN
160 NM N OF THE FRONT W OF 60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS BEING ENHANCED BY A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 20N. THE RIDGE OVER
THE NW ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS PUSHING THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE EASTERN ATLC WHERE IT
WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 230606 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR
9N13W TO 7N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 5N30W TO
5N40W TO THE COAST OF NE BRAZIL NEAR 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 17W AND
27W AS WELL AS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 26W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CONUS
TO THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 34N67W...WHICH EXTENDS A RIDGE
SW ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE E-NE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE IS BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N85W TO
25N86W. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE W-NW GULF ALONG WITH
INFLOW OF MOIST AIR FROM THE SW N ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 27N E OF 91W. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE...THE SURFACE TROUGH
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA
TO THE SE GULF SUPPORTS E-SE WIND FLOW OF 20-25 KT E OF 88W. A
MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF 23N WEST OF 88W PROVIDES FOR
E-SE WIND FLOW OF 15 KT. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE BEING
ANALYZED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 93W ASSOCIATED WITH A
SQUALL LINE ALONG 28N96W SW TO NE MEXICO NEAR 24N98W AND THE
TAIL OF A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 29N96W TO 28N91W. THESE
FEATURES COINCIDES WITH THE LOCATION OF THE BASE OF THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE. MOIST AIR BEING ADVECTED
FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY SE WIND FLOW OF 20 KT FUELS THE CONVECTION
IN THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE.
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
THROUGH SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE
AND A COLD FRONT TO EMERGE FROM TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THIS REGION HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER
BASIN ALONG WITH A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO
AND HISPANIOLA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS N OF 14N.
FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 15-20 KT ARE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WHILE A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT
PROVIDES LIGHTER WINDS ON THE NW CARIBBEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A BROAD AND MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND AS
WELL AS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS THAT ALONG WITH LIFTING
SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 14N E OF 72W. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
DRIFT WESTWARD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N55W SW TO 26N64W TO 24N72W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE
FRONT N OF 28N. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND 120 NM EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES BEING ENHANCED BY A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE
BASIN. ON THE FAR NE ATLC BASIN...A 1003 MB LOW IS NE OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N E OF 14W.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 20N. A
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER VIRGINIA MOVING SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ATLC WHERE IT
WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 230606 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR
9N13W TO 7N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 5N30W TO
5N40W TO THE COAST OF NE BRAZIL NEAR 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 17W AND
27W AS WELL AS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 26W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CONUS
TO THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 34N67W...WHICH EXTENDS A RIDGE
SW ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE E-NE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE IS BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N85W TO
25N86W. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE W-NW GULF ALONG WITH
INFLOW OF MOIST AIR FROM THE SW N ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 27N E OF 91W. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE...THE SURFACE TROUGH
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA
TO THE SE GULF SUPPORTS E-SE WIND FLOW OF 20-25 KT E OF 88W. A
MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF 23N WEST OF 88W PROVIDES FOR
E-SE WIND FLOW OF 15 KT. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE BEING
ANALYZED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 93W ASSOCIATED WITH A
SQUALL LINE ALONG 28N96W SW TO NE MEXICO NEAR 24N98W AND THE
TAIL OF A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 29N96W TO 28N91W. THESE
FEATURES COINCIDES WITH THE LOCATION OF THE BASE OF THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE. MOIST AIR BEING ADVECTED
FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY SE WIND FLOW OF 20 KT FUELS THE CONVECTION
IN THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE.
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
THROUGH SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE
AND A COLD FRONT TO EMERGE FROM TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THIS REGION HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER
BASIN ALONG WITH A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO
AND HISPANIOLA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS N OF 14N.
FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 15-20 KT ARE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WHILE A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT
PROVIDES LIGHTER WINDS ON THE NW CARIBBEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A BROAD AND MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND AS
WELL AS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS THAT ALONG WITH LIFTING
SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 14N E OF 72W. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
DRIFT WESTWARD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N55W SW TO 26N64W TO 24N72W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE
FRONT N OF 28N. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND 120 NM EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES BEING ENHANCED BY A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE
BASIN. ON THE FAR NE ATLC BASIN...A 1003 MB LOW IS NE OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N E OF 14W.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 20N. A
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER VIRGINIA MOVING SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ATLC WHERE IT
WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
ACPN50 PHFO 230530
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SAT NOV 22 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

$$

RYSHKO




000
ACPN50 PHFO 230530
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SAT NOV 22 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

$$

RYSHKO





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 230528
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
100 AM EST DOMINGO 23 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 230528
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
100 AM EST DOMINGO 23 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN





000
ABNT20 KNHC 230510
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 230509
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 230509
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230318
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N84W TO 08N94W. THE
ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N94W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N103W 1009
MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N121W 1008 MB TO 07N130W TO 09N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 360 NM NE QUADRANT OF
LOW PRES NEAR 11N121W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
WAS WITHIN 60 NM N AND 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND
126W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WAS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 126W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1028 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 32N135W EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD THROUGH 30N127W THROUGH SOCORRO ISLAND TO
NEAR 15N105W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ
IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 09N-22N W OF 125W AS WELL AS FRESH
TO STRONG NE WINDS WITHIN 300 NM W OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
FROM 15N119W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N121W. THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH WILL MIGRATE NE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WEAKENING THE PRES
GRADIENT OVER W WATERS AND SHRINKING THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
NE WINDS TO NEAR THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES TO 15N123W TO 10N128W BY
SUN NIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO A FRESH BREEZE BY MON. A
NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH WATERS N OF 22N W OF 130W
AT THE MOMENT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH W WATERS
THROUGH MON AND ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
LATE SUN AND MON. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 08N W OF 117W FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 360 NM NE QUADRANT OF
LOW PRES NEAR 11N121W. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A
MAXIMUM OF MOISTURE NEAR THE TROUGH AND LOW WHICH LIES NEAR THE
REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
TEXAS BIG BEND THROUGH CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO TO NEAR 15N125W.
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS PULLING E AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
W...CARRYING THE MOISTURE WITH IT. THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD
STILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER JET QUICKLY
MOVES OVER THE SYSTEM AND CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE VERTICAL
MOTION. THE AREA OF ENHANCED VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY JET IS CURRENTLY AIDING THE DEEP CONVECTION
FOUND ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 121W. THIS CONVECTION IS
DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE.

GAP WINDS...FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEGINNING LATE
SUN...REACHING 25N BY MIDDAY MON. HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY
STRETCHES FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO THE SAN LUIS OBISPO
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOWER PRES EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND NE TO N CENTRAL MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE COLD
FRONT

$$
SCHAUER



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230318
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N84W TO 08N94W. THE
ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N94W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N103W 1009
MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N121W 1008 MB TO 07N130W TO 09N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 360 NM NE QUADRANT OF
LOW PRES NEAR 11N121W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
WAS WITHIN 60 NM N AND 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND
126W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WAS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 126W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1028 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 32N135W EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD THROUGH 30N127W THROUGH SOCORRO ISLAND TO
NEAR 15N105W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ
IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 09N-22N W OF 125W AS WELL AS FRESH
TO STRONG NE WINDS WITHIN 300 NM W OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
FROM 15N119W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N121W. THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH WILL MIGRATE NE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WEAKENING THE PRES
GRADIENT OVER W WATERS AND SHRINKING THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
NE WINDS TO NEAR THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES TO 15N123W TO 10N128W BY
SUN NIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO A FRESH BREEZE BY MON. A
NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH WATERS N OF 22N W OF 130W
AT THE MOMENT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH W WATERS
THROUGH MON AND ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
LATE SUN AND MON. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 08N W OF 117W FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 360 NM NE QUADRANT OF
LOW PRES NEAR 11N121W. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A
MAXIMUM OF MOISTURE NEAR THE TROUGH AND LOW WHICH LIES NEAR THE
REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
TEXAS BIG BEND THROUGH CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO TO NEAR 15N125W.
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS PULLING E AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
W...CARRYING THE MOISTURE WITH IT. THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD
STILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER JET QUICKLY
MOVES OVER THE SYSTEM AND CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE VERTICAL
MOTION. THE AREA OF ENHANCED VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY JET IS CURRENTLY AIDING THE DEEP CONVECTION
FOUND ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 121W. THIS CONVECTION IS
DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE.

GAP WINDS...FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEGINNING LATE
SUN...REACHING 25N BY MIDDAY MON. HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY
STRETCHES FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO THE SAN LUIS OBISPO
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOWER PRES EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND NE TO N CENTRAL MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE COLD
FRONT

$$
SCHAUER



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230318
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N84W TO 08N94W. THE
ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N94W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N103W 1009
MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N121W 1008 MB TO 07N130W TO 09N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 360 NM NE QUADRANT OF
LOW PRES NEAR 11N121W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
WAS WITHIN 60 NM N AND 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND
126W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WAS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 126W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1028 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 32N135W EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD THROUGH 30N127W THROUGH SOCORRO ISLAND TO
NEAR 15N105W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ
IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 09N-22N W OF 125W AS WELL AS FRESH
TO STRONG NE WINDS WITHIN 300 NM W OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
FROM 15N119W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N121W. THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH WILL MIGRATE NE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WEAKENING THE PRES
GRADIENT OVER W WATERS AND SHRINKING THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
NE WINDS TO NEAR THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES TO 15N123W TO 10N128W BY
SUN NIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO A FRESH BREEZE BY MON. A
NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH WATERS N OF 22N W OF 130W
AT THE MOMENT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH W WATERS
THROUGH MON AND ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
LATE SUN AND MON. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 08N W OF 117W FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 360 NM NE QUADRANT OF
LOW PRES NEAR 11N121W. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A
MAXIMUM OF MOISTURE NEAR THE TROUGH AND LOW WHICH LIES NEAR THE
REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
TEXAS BIG BEND THROUGH CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO TO NEAR 15N125W.
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS PULLING E AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
W...CARRYING THE MOISTURE WITH IT. THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD
STILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER JET QUICKLY
MOVES OVER THE SYSTEM AND CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE VERTICAL
MOTION. THE AREA OF ENHANCED VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY JET IS CURRENTLY AIDING THE DEEP CONVECTION
FOUND ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 121W. THIS CONVECTION IS
DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE.

GAP WINDS...FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEGINNING LATE
SUN...REACHING 25N BY MIDDAY MON. HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY
STRETCHES FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO THE SAN LUIS OBISPO
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOWER PRES EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND NE TO N CENTRAL MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE COLD
FRONT

$$
SCHAUER



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230318
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N84W TO 08N94W. THE
ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N94W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N103W 1009
MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N121W 1008 MB TO 07N130W TO 09N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 360 NM NE QUADRANT OF
LOW PRES NEAR 11N121W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
WAS WITHIN 60 NM N AND 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND
126W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WAS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 126W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1028 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 32N135W EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD THROUGH 30N127W THROUGH SOCORRO ISLAND TO
NEAR 15N105W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ
IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 09N-22N W OF 125W AS WELL AS FRESH
TO STRONG NE WINDS WITHIN 300 NM W OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
FROM 15N119W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N121W. THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH WILL MIGRATE NE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WEAKENING THE PRES
GRADIENT OVER W WATERS AND SHRINKING THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
NE WINDS TO NEAR THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES TO 15N123W TO 10N128W BY
SUN NIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO A FRESH BREEZE BY MON. A
NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH WATERS N OF 22N W OF 130W
AT THE MOMENT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH W WATERS
THROUGH MON AND ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
LATE SUN AND MON. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 08N W OF 117W FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 360 NM NE QUADRANT OF
LOW PRES NEAR 11N121W. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A
MAXIMUM OF MOISTURE NEAR THE TROUGH AND LOW WHICH LIES NEAR THE
REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
TEXAS BIG BEND THROUGH CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO TO NEAR 15N125W.
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS PULLING E AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
W...CARRYING THE MOISTURE WITH IT. THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD
STILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER JET QUICKLY
MOVES OVER THE SYSTEM AND CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE VERTICAL
MOTION. THE AREA OF ENHANCED VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY JET IS CURRENTLY AIDING THE DEEP CONVECTION
FOUND ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 121W. THIS CONVECTION IS
DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE.

GAP WINDS...FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEGINNING LATE
SUN...REACHING 25N BY MIDDAY MON. HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY
STRETCHES FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO THE SAN LUIS OBISPO
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOWER PRES EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND NE TO N CENTRAL MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE COLD
FRONT

$$
SCHAUER



000
ACPN50 PHFO 222345
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SAT NOV 22 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

$$




000
ACPN50 PHFO 222345
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SAT NOV 22 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

$$





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 222343
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
700 PM EST SABADO 22 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 222343
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
700 PM EST SABADO 22 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 222343
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
700 PM EST SABADO 22 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 222343
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
700 PM EST SABADO 22 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222338
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven




000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222338
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABNT20 KNHC 222336
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABNT20 KNHC 222336
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven




000
AXNT20 KNHC 222335
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR
10N15W TO 9N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 6N29W TO
8N41W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 15W-27W... AND
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 28W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA NEAR 35N78W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING 15-20 KT E TO SE FLOW MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN N OF 26N. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 89W-95W
AND FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 84W-87W AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM THAT IS LOCATED ACROSS SW TEXAS AND EXTENDING TO NORTHERN
MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND
EXTENDING TO THE W ATLANTIC FROM 25N84W TO 25N70W. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT THAT IS OVER SW TEXAS TO BE ALONG THE
COAST ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-20 KT TRADEWINDS PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR
17N87W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 16N65W IS PRODUCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
E CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 62W-71W AFFECTING ALSO THE
ISLANDS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. TO THE S...THE PROXIMITY
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS
PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND THEIR ADJACENT WATERS S OF 11N. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR CONVECTION TO SPREAD TO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES DRIFTING W.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SE OF PUERTO RICO CONTINUES DRIFTING W. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AS A COLD FRONT FROM 32N48W TO 25N67W AND AS A
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N67W TO 25N84W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS PRESENT BEHIND THE FRONT FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 74W-
76W. A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N44W IS SUPPORTED AT UPPER
LEVELS BY A BROAD RIDGE AND KEEPING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC CONVECTION FREE. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 54W-61W. TO THE E...A 1001 MB
SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 31N12W ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS AND NW AFRICA AS WELL AS THEIR
ADJACENT WATERS E OF 17W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
COLD FRONT TO BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 222335
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR
10N15W TO 9N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 6N29W TO
8N41W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 15W-27W... AND
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 28W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA NEAR 35N78W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING 15-20 KT E TO SE FLOW MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN N OF 26N. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 89W-95W
AND FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 84W-87W AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM THAT IS LOCATED ACROSS SW TEXAS AND EXTENDING TO NORTHERN
MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND
EXTENDING TO THE W ATLANTIC FROM 25N84W TO 25N70W. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT THAT IS OVER SW TEXAS TO BE ALONG THE
COAST ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-20 KT TRADEWINDS PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR
17N87W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 16N65W IS PRODUCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
E CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 62W-71W AFFECTING ALSO THE
ISLANDS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. TO THE S...THE PROXIMITY
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS
PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND THEIR ADJACENT WATERS S OF 11N. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR CONVECTION TO SPREAD TO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES DRIFTING W.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SE OF PUERTO RICO CONTINUES DRIFTING W. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AS A COLD FRONT FROM 32N48W TO 25N67W AND AS A
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N67W TO 25N84W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS PRESENT BEHIND THE FRONT FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 74W-
76W. A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N44W IS SUPPORTED AT UPPER
LEVELS BY A BROAD RIDGE AND KEEPING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC CONVECTION FREE. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 54W-61W. TO THE E...A 1001 MB
SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 31N12W ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS AND NW AFRICA AS WELL AS THEIR
ADJACENT WATERS E OF 17W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
COLD FRONT TO BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222117
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N77W TO 10N87W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 09N101W 1010 MB TO 08N110W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS
ANALYZED FROM 08N110W TO 11N119W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 09N123W
TO 07N127W TO 09N135W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS N OF THE AXIS TO 11N W OF 131W
AND S OF THE AXIS TO 06N W OF 129W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1029 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 31N137W EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD THROUGH 30N127W TO SOCORRO ISLAND. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT AN OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS FROM 10N-21N W OF
130W AS WELL AS FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WITHIN 300 NM W OF A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 15N119W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR
10N121W. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL MIGRATE NE OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER W WATERS AND SHRINKING
THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS TO NEAR THE TROUGH AS IT
MOVES TO 16N124W TO 10N126W BY MIDDAY SUN...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO A FRESH BREEZE BY MIDDAY MON. A NEW ROUND OF NW
SWELL MOVING THROUGH WATERS N OF 25N W OF 135W AT THE MOMENT
WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH W WATERS THROUGH MON AND
ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE SUN AND
MON. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA N OF 08N W OF 117W FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACCOMPANIES THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW OVER THE AREA FROM 11N TO
15N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A
MAXIMUM OF MOISTURE NEAR THE TROUGH AND LOW WHICH LIES UNDER THE
REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH LA PAZ MEXICO TO NEAR 15N125W. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL PULL E OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
PUSHES W...CARRYING THE MOISTURE WITH IT. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD STILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER JET
QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE SYSTEM AND CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE
VERTICAL MOTION. PRESENTLY...THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY JET IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE ITCZ OVER WATERS W OF 129W. THIS CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED
IN THE SECTION ABOVE.

GAP WINDS...FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEGINNING LATE
SUN...REACHING 25N BY MIDDAY MON. HIGH PRES BUILDING IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY
STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER
PRES EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NE TO N
CENTRAL MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT

$$
SCHAUER


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222117
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N77W TO 10N87W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 09N101W 1010 MB TO 08N110W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS
ANALYZED FROM 08N110W TO 11N119W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 09N123W
TO 07N127W TO 09N135W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS N OF THE AXIS TO 11N W OF 131W
AND S OF THE AXIS TO 06N W OF 129W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1029 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 31N137W EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD THROUGH 30N127W TO SOCORRO ISLAND. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT AN OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS FROM 10N-21N W OF
130W AS WELL AS FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WITHIN 300 NM W OF A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 15N119W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR
10N121W. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL MIGRATE NE OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER W WATERS AND SHRINKING
THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS TO NEAR THE TROUGH AS IT
MOVES TO 16N124W TO 10N126W BY MIDDAY SUN...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO A FRESH BREEZE BY MIDDAY MON. A NEW ROUND OF NW
SWELL MOVING THROUGH WATERS N OF 25N W OF 135W AT THE MOMENT
WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH W WATERS THROUGH MON AND
ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE SUN AND
MON. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA N OF 08N W OF 117W FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACCOMPANIES THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW OVER THE AREA FROM 11N TO
15N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A
MAXIMUM OF MOISTURE NEAR THE TROUGH AND LOW WHICH LIES UNDER THE
REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH LA PAZ MEXICO TO NEAR 15N125W. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL PULL E OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
PUSHES W...CARRYING THE MOISTURE WITH IT. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD STILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER JET
QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE SYSTEM AND CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE
VERTICAL MOTION. PRESENTLY...THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY JET IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE ITCZ OVER WATERS W OF 129W. THIS CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED
IN THE SECTION ABOVE.

GAP WINDS...FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEGINNING LATE
SUN...REACHING 25N BY MIDDAY MON. HIGH PRES BUILDING IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY
STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER
PRES EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NE TO N
CENTRAL MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT

$$
SCHAUER



000
ACPN50 PHFO 221735
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SAT NOV 22 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

$$




000
ACPN50 PHFO 221735
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SAT NOV 22 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

$$





000
AXNT20 KNHC 221734
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR
10N15W TO 9N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N17W TO 6N31W TO 7N42W
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 10W-30W...AND FROM 5N-
9N BETWEEN 30W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ON THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA NEAR 36N75W PRODUCING 10-15 KT E TO SE RETURN FLOW OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND FROM 24N80W TO 24N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM 23N-25N E OF
84W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
OVER CENTRAL AND N FLORIDA FROM 26N-31N E OF 86W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS AND NE
MEXICO FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 93W-97W. FURTHER S...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO FROM 21N-25N
BETWEEN 93W-96W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING SSW
FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS WITH CONVECTION.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 17N AND W OF 86W. FURTHER S... SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF S NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST SE OF PUERTO RICO
NEAR 17N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
E OF 68W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS NEAR 17N83W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO SPREAD TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY FAR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA WHILE PUERTO RICO AND
THE MONA PASSAGE HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO
SPREAD OVER TO HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N51W TO E OF
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF FRONTS. A 1024 NM HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N38W. A 1004 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N12W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 32N10W
ENHANCING SHOWERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD
FRONT TO BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 221708
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EST SABADO 22 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 221708
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EST SABADO 22 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 221708
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EST SABADO 22 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 221708
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EST SABADO 22 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART




000
ABNT20 KNHC 221707
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 221707
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221707
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221707
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221533
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N86W TO 1010 MB LOW
PRES NEAR 09N100W TO 09N111W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N111W TO
1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 15N118W TO 07N126W TO 08N140W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N E OF 80W...AND FROM 07N
TO 11N BETWEEN 99W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 111W AND 117W...
AND FROM 06N TO 10N W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES SW
TO OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THEN W-SW TO A
BASE NEAR 23N120W. A RIDGE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO
THE WEST OF THE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA
NEAR 29N135W. SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WITH A RELATED DRY AND STABLE
AIR MASS ARE NOTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA N OF 20N. S OF 20N...
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RELATIVELY MOIST WITH S-SW WINDS ALOFT E
OF 120W WITH CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS AND ASSOCIATED DEBRIS N OF
THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH ACTIVITY. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 15N86W IS PROVIDING THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH LOCATED
NEAR 31N139W TO NEAR 20N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS INDUCING
AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 09N-24N W OF 125W.
THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY. WITHIN THIS AREA OF TRADES...SEAS WILL
REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 15N118W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR
10N119W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE DRIFTING
WEST AND BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AREA OF TRADES AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS BY SUNDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN A BROAD AREA EAST OF THE TROUGH
FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 106W AND 116W...AND AN AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION SW OF THE LOW IN THE
VICINITY OF 09N121W.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS W OF
110W. THIS SWELL IS MIXING WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES RELATED
TO THE TRADES. A NEW WAVE OF NW SWELLS HAS REACHED THE NW CORNER
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL PROPAGATE SE COVERING THE
NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY MONDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS
FORECAST TO INITIATE TUESDAY MORNING REACHING POSSIBLE GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...ENSEMBLE MODELS
INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF STORM FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WITH
THIS EVENT...CURRENT NWPS GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS INTO A RANGE OF
25 TO 30 FT WHILE WAVEWATCH3 GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS RANGING
FROM 20 TO 25 FT. AS THE EVENT NEARS...CONTINUED MODIFICATION TO
THE GRIDDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE MADE.

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221533
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N86W TO 1010 MB LOW
PRES NEAR 09N100W TO 09N111W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N111W TO
1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 15N118W TO 07N126W TO 08N140W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N E OF 80W...AND FROM 07N
TO 11N BETWEEN 99W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 111W AND 117W...
AND FROM 06N TO 10N W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES SW
TO OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THEN W-SW TO A
BASE NEAR 23N120W. A RIDGE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO
THE WEST OF THE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA
NEAR 29N135W. SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WITH A RELATED DRY AND STABLE
AIR MASS ARE NOTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA N OF 20N. S OF 20N...
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RELATIVELY MOIST WITH S-SW WINDS ALOFT E
OF 120W WITH CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS AND ASSOCIATED DEBRIS N OF
THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH ACTIVITY. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 15N86W IS PROVIDING THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH LOCATED
NEAR 31N139W TO NEAR 20N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS INDUCING
AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 09N-24N W OF 125W.
THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY. WITHIN THIS AREA OF TRADES...SEAS WILL
REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 15N118W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR
10N119W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE DRIFTING
WEST AND BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AREA OF TRADES AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS BY SUNDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN A BROAD AREA EAST OF THE TROUGH
FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 106W AND 116W...AND AN AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION SW OF THE LOW IN THE
VICINITY OF 09N121W.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS W OF
110W. THIS SWELL IS MIXING WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES RELATED
TO THE TRADES. A NEW WAVE OF NW SWELLS HAS REACHED THE NW CORNER
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL PROPAGATE SE COVERING THE
NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY MONDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS
FORECAST TO INITIATE TUESDAY MORNING REACHING POSSIBLE GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...ENSEMBLE MODELS
INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF STORM FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WITH
THIS EVENT...CURRENT NWPS GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS INTO A RANGE OF
25 TO 30 FT WHILE WAVEWATCH3 GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS RANGING
FROM 20 TO 25 FT. AS THE EVENT NEARS...CONTINUED MODIFICATION TO
THE GRIDDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE MADE.

$$
HUFFMAN



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221151
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221151
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221151
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221151
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 221151
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
700 AM EST SABADO 22 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 221151
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
700 AM EST SABADO 22 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 221151
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
700 AM EST SABADO 22 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 221151
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
700 AM EST SABADO 22 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART





000
ABNT20 KNHC 221150
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ACPN50 PHFO 221130
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SAT NOV 22 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

$$

DWROE





000
AXNT20 KNHC 221116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N14W TO 7N30W 7N41W TO 6N57W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 4N-11N E OF 33W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N WEST OF 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB
HIGH OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA...WHICH EXTENDS A RIDGE SW ACROSS
FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SW
N ATLC TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUPPORT E-NE WIND FLOW OF 20 KT
WHILE A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF 90W PROVIDES FOR
E-SE WIND FLOW OF 15 KT. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN GULF
N OF 27N E OF 93W MAINTAINS FAIR WEATHER IN THIS REGION. MIDDLE-
TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS WELL
AS UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NE FROM THE E PAC WATERS
SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
GULF. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
WESTWARD TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUPPORT SIMILAR CONVECTION
THERE. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER VIRGINIA CONTINUES TO
DRIFT SE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...A COLD FRONT STARTS ENTERING
THE NW BASIN EARLY MONDAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THIS REGION HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 20 NM OF THE
COASTS OF BELIZE...HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NE BASIN ALONG WITH A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
BEING INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY MORNING...A BROAD AND MOIST AIRMASS STARTS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND ENHANCING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS AIRMASS
ACROSS THE ISLAND ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N55W SW TO 26N64W TO 24N72W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE
FRONT N OF 28N. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND 120 NM EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES BEING ENHANCED BY A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE
BASIN. ON THE FAR NE ATLC BASIN...A 1003 MB LOW IS NE OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N E OF 14W.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 20N. A
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER VIRGINIA MOVING SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ATLC WHERE IT
WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 221116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N14W TO 7N30W 7N41W TO 6N57W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 4N-11N E OF 33W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N WEST OF 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB
HIGH OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA...WHICH EXTENDS A RIDGE SW ACROSS
FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SW
N ATLC TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUPPORT E-NE WIND FLOW OF 20 KT
WHILE A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF 90W PROVIDES FOR
E-SE WIND FLOW OF 15 KT. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN GULF
N OF 27N E OF 93W MAINTAINS FAIR WEATHER IN THIS REGION. MIDDLE-
TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS WELL
AS UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NE FROM THE E PAC WATERS
SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
GULF. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
WESTWARD TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUPPORT SIMILAR CONVECTION
THERE. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER VIRGINIA CONTINUES TO
DRIFT SE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...A COLD FRONT STARTS ENTERING
THE NW BASIN EARLY MONDAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THIS REGION HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 20 NM OF THE
COASTS OF BELIZE...HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NE BASIN ALONG WITH A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
BEING INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY MORNING...A BROAD AND MOIST AIRMASS STARTS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND ENHANCING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS AIRMASS
ACROSS THE ISLAND ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N55W SW TO 26N64W TO 24N72W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE
FRONT N OF 28N. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND 120 NM EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES BEING ENHANCED BY A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE
BASIN. ON THE FAR NE ATLC BASIN...A 1003 MB LOW IS NE OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N E OF 14W.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 20N. A
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER VIRGINIA MOVING SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ATLC WHERE IT
WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 221116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N14W TO 7N30W 7N41W TO 6N57W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 4N-11N E OF 33W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N WEST OF 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB
HIGH OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA...WHICH EXTENDS A RIDGE SW ACROSS
FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SW
N ATLC TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUPPORT E-NE WIND FLOW OF 20 KT
WHILE A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF 90W PROVIDES FOR
E-SE WIND FLOW OF 15 KT. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN GULF
N OF 27N E OF 93W MAINTAINS FAIR WEATHER IN THIS REGION. MIDDLE-
TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS WELL
AS UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NE FROM THE E PAC WATERS
SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
GULF. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
WESTWARD TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUPPORT SIMILAR CONVECTION
THERE. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER VIRGINIA CONTINUES TO
DRIFT SE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...A COLD FRONT STARTS ENTERING
THE NW BASIN EARLY MONDAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THIS REGION HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 20 NM OF THE
COASTS OF BELIZE...HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NE BASIN ALONG WITH A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
BEING INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY MORNING...A BROAD AND MOIST AIRMASS STARTS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND ENHANCING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS AIRMASS
ACROSS THE ISLAND ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N55W SW TO 26N64W TO 24N72W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE
FRONT N OF 28N. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND 120 NM EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES BEING ENHANCED BY A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE
BASIN. ON THE FAR NE ATLC BASIN...A 1003 MB LOW IS NE OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N E OF 14W.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 20N. A
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER VIRGINIA MOVING SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ATLC WHERE IT
WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 221116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N14W TO 7N30W 7N41W TO 6N57W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 4N-11N E OF 33W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N WEST OF 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB
HIGH OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA...WHICH EXTENDS A RIDGE SW ACROSS
FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SW
N ATLC TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUPPORT E-NE WIND FLOW OF 20 KT
WHILE A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF 90W PROVIDES FOR
E-SE WIND FLOW OF 15 KT. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN GULF
N OF 27N E OF 93W MAINTAINS FAIR WEATHER IN THIS REGION. MIDDLE-
TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS WELL
AS UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NE FROM THE E PAC WATERS
SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
GULF. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
WESTWARD TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUPPORT SIMILAR CONVECTION
THERE. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER VIRGINIA CONTINUES TO
DRIFT SE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...A COLD FRONT STARTS ENTERING
THE NW BASIN EARLY MONDAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THIS REGION HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 20 NM OF THE
COASTS OF BELIZE...HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NE BASIN ALONG WITH A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
BEING INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY MORNING...A BROAD AND MOIST AIRMASS STARTS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND ENHANCING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS AIRMASS
ACROSS THE ISLAND ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N55W SW TO 26N64W TO 24N72W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE
FRONT N OF 28N. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND 120 NM EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES BEING ENHANCED BY A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE
BASIN. ON THE FAR NE ATLC BASIN...A 1003 MB LOW IS NE OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N E OF 14W.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 20N. A
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER VIRGINIA MOVING SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ATLC WHERE IT
WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 221115
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N14W TO 7N30W 7N41W TO 6N57W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 4N-11N E OF 33W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N WEST OF 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB
HIGH OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA...WHICH EXTENDS A RIDGE SW ACROSS
FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SW
N ATLC TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUPPORT E-NE WIND FLOW OF 20 KT
WHILE A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF 90W PROVIDES FOR
E-SE WIND FLOW OF 15 KT. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN GULF
N OF 27N E OF 93W MAINTAINS FAIR WEATHER IN THIS REGION. MIDDLE-
TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS WELL
AS UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NE FROM THE E PAC WATERS
SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
GULF. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
WESTWARD TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUPPORT SIMILAR CONVECTION
THERE. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER VIRGINIA CONTINUES TO
DRIFT SE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...A COLD FRONT STARTS ENTERING
THE NW BASIN EARLY MONDAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THIS REGION HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 20 NM OF THE
COASTS OF BELIZE...HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NE BASIN ALONG WITH A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
BEING INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY MORNING...A BROAD AND MOIST AIRMASS STARTS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND ENHANCING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS AIRMASS
ACROSS THE ISLAND ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N55W SW TO 26N64W TO 24N72W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE
FRONT N OF 28N. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND 120 NM EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES BEING ENHANCED BY A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE
BASIN. ON THE FAR NE ATLC BASIN...A 1003 MB LOW IS NE OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N E OF 14W.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 20N. A
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER VIRGINIA MOVING SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ATLC WHERE IT
WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220932
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N88W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB
NEAR 09N100W TO 10N114W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N114W TO LOW
PRES 1008 MB LOW NEAR 11N118W TO 08N125W TO 09N135W TO 08N140W.
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 96W AND 105W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 107W
AND 110W...FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 114W AND 122W AND FROM 08N TO
09N BETWEEN 136W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD EXTENDS SW FROM
NW MEXICO TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 25N112W TO 22N126W
THEN CONTINUES WESTWARD AS A SHEAR AXIS TO AN ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 23N144W. A RIDGE IS
BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS AND DOMINATES THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST REGION. SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WITH RELATED DRY AND
STABLE AIR MASS ARE NOTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA N OF 19N. S OF
19N...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST AS NOTED BY THE ACTIVE
CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY E OF 125W.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRES
LOCATED NEAR 30N138W TO NEAR 22N115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS INDUCING
AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 10N-23N W OF 130W
AND FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. THESE WINDS WILL
EXPAND SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD THROUGH LATE TODAY AS
HIGH PRES LIFTS NE AND STRENGTHENS SOME WITH THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGE BUILDING MORE FIRMLY OVER THE WATERS N OF 15N-16N. AT THE
SAME TIME...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE NE PART
OF THE AREA MAINLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W WITH BUILDING
SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN NW SWELL. BY LATE SUN...A RESIDUAL TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS FROM 10N-
22N W OF 130W WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 15N116W TO A 1008 MB LOW PRES
NEAR 11N118W TO 08N118W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 24-36 HRS. THE NIGHT CHANNEL VISIBLE IMAGES
STILL SHOW A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED MAINLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 11N TO 14N TO 110W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF NE WINDS IN THE 20-
25 KT RANGE W OF THE TROUGH FROM 12N TO 16N TO 123W WHILE AN
ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS OF 8-10 FT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
THE TROUGH AND LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH AN AREA
OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AHEAD OF IT...THAT IS FORECAST TO
MERGE WITH THE AREA OF THE TRADE WINDS MENTIONED ABOVE IN ABOUT
24 HOURS.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS W OF
110W. THIS SWELL EVENT IS MIXING WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES
RELATED TO THE TRADES. A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS WILL REACH THE FAR
NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS MORNING. THIS SET OF
SWELLS WILL THEN PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL
WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HRS WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT COVERING THE
AREA N OF ABOUT 08N W OF ABOUT 118W. THE HIGHEST SEAS CAN BE
FOUND AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH AND N OF 27N
BETWEEN 118W AND 125W.

GAP WINDS...EXPECT GAP WINDS OF 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO TODAY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW WITH
SEAS OF 6-7 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ON EARLY SUN.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS FORECAST
TO BE THE STRONGEST ONE SO FAR THIS SEASON WITH MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING NLY WINDS OF 50 KT BY WED MORNING. THE
GEFS PROBABILITIES OF GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 90
PERCENT WITH THE 22/0000 UTC RUN. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BUILDING SEAS UP TO 23-25 FT WITH THIS EVENT. EDITS WILL BE MADE
TO THE NDFD GRIDS AS NECESSARY PRIOR TO THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

$$
GR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 220603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR
10N14W TO 8N18W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 6N30W TO 6N40W
6N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-13N E OF 23W AND
WITHIN 130 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB
HIGH ON WEST VIRGINIA...WHICH EXTENDS SW ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OF THIS RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN GULF SUPPORT EASTERLY WIND OF 20-25 KT WHILE A
MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF 90W PROVIDES FOR E-SE WIND
FLOW OF 15-20 KT. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN GULF N OF
26N MAINTAINS FAIR WEATHER IN THIS REGION. MIDDLE- TO LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS WELL AS UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING NE FROM THE E PAC WATERS SUPPORT CLOUDINESS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER GULF. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SW TO WESTERN CUBA
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WEST
VIRGINIA CONTINUES TO DRIFT SE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...A COLD
FRONT WILL START ENTERING THE NW BASIN EARLY MONDAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THIS REGION HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. THE TAIL OF A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES OVER
WESTERN CUBA FROM WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 21N85W TO
16N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COASTS OF
BELIZE...HONDURAS...NICARAGUA AND PANAMA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NE BASIN ALONG WITH A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED FOR PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS THIS TONIGHT AND
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE SAT
MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
BEING INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY MORNING...A BROAD AND MOIST AIRMASS STARTS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND ENHANCING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS AIRMASS
ACROSS THE ISLAND ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 34N53W SW TO 27N65W TO 25N71W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SIMILAR SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BEING ENHANCED BY
A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ON
THE FAR NE ATLC BASIN...A 1004 MB LOW IS EAST OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS SUPPORTING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS N OF 27N E OF 13W.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 20N. A
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WEST VIRGINIA MOVING SE OVER THE NEXT THREE
DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
ACPN50 PHFO 220530
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

$$

DWROE






000
ACPN50 PHFO 220530
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

$$

DWROE





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220504
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220504
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ABNT20 KNHC 220503
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ABNT20 KNHC 220503
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220335
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N83W ALONG 10N91W TO 1010 MB
LOW NEAR 9N98W ALONG 7N108W TO 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N118W TO
8N124W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N132W TO
9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM N AND 150 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 93W-96W...WITHIN
150 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 101W-104W...WITHIN 60 NM S OF
MONSOON TROUGH 120W-123W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
134W-137W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD EXTENDING SW
FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER NW MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
TO NEAR 20N116W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 30N138W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING SE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH TO NEAR
25N122W. AS A RESULT...FLOW INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS
BRINGING SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WITH RELATED DRY AND STABLE AIR
ACROSS THE AREA N OF 19N. S OF 19N THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY
MOIST WITH ASSOCIATED ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ
AND MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH LOCATED
NEAR 30N140W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 20N110W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS INDUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA DESCRIBED FROM 9N-25N W OF
130W/134W. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD AND SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY SAT AS HIGH LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE BUILDING MORE FIRMLY S-SE OVER THE AREA. THESE
WINDS THEN DIMINISH EARLY ON SUN AS THE HIGH AND RIDGE WEAKEN.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 15N116W TO 1009 MB LOW LOW
NEAR 11N117W TO 08N118W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 108W-116W. THIS TROUGH AND LOW
WILL MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE LOW DISSIPATING IN 36 TO 48 HRS. THE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BECOME INTERMIXED WITH THE TRADE WINDS ABOVE
AND BY SUN EVENING MOST OF THE AREA W OF 115W WILL HAVE SEAS OF
8 FT OR GREATER.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE AREA WITH A SECOND SURGE MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE
AREA W OF 124W. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE SE MERGING WITH A S
SWELL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EQUATOR SAT AFTERNOON AS A
THIRD SWELL EVENT MOVES INTO THE NW SECTION. THIS WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE BASIN IN THE 14 TO 16 SEC PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
AND BE OFF THE COAST OF S CALIFORNIA BY SUN NIGHT AND COUPLED
WITH THE DEEP RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SPREADING S OVER THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE A
STRONG WITH THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY POSSIBLY REACH
MINIMAL STORM FORCE BY EARLY ON WED MORNING.

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220335
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N83W ALONG 10N91W TO 1010 MB
LOW NEAR 9N98W ALONG 7N108W TO 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N118W TO
8N124W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N132W TO
9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM N AND 150 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 93W-96W...WITHIN
150 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 101W-104W...WITHIN 60 NM S OF
MONSOON TROUGH 120W-123W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
134W-137W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD EXTENDING SW
FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER NW MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
TO NEAR 20N116W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 30N138W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING SE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH TO NEAR
25N122W. AS A RESULT...FLOW INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS
BRINGING SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WITH RELATED DRY AND STABLE AIR
ACROSS THE AREA N OF 19N. S OF 19N THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY
MOIST WITH ASSOCIATED ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ
AND MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH LOCATED
NEAR 30N140W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 20N110W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS INDUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA DESCRIBED FROM 9N-25N W OF
130W/134W. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD AND SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY SAT AS HIGH LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE BUILDING MORE FIRMLY S-SE OVER THE AREA. THESE
WINDS THEN DIMINISH EARLY ON SUN AS THE HIGH AND RIDGE WEAKEN.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 15N116W TO 1009 MB LOW LOW
NEAR 11N117W TO 08N118W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 108W-116W. THIS TROUGH AND LOW
WILL MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE LOW DISSIPATING IN 36 TO 48 HRS. THE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BECOME INTERMIXED WITH THE TRADE WINDS ABOVE
AND BY SUN EVENING MOST OF THE AREA W OF 115W WILL HAVE SEAS OF
8 FT OR GREATER.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE AREA WITH A SECOND SURGE MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE
AREA W OF 124W. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE SE MERGING WITH A S
SWELL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EQUATOR SAT AFTERNOON AS A
THIRD SWELL EVENT MOVES INTO THE NW SECTION. THIS WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE BASIN IN THE 14 TO 16 SEC PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
AND BE OFF THE COAST OF S CALIFORNIA BY SUN NIGHT AND COUPLED
WITH THE DEEP RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SPREADING S OVER THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE A
STRONG WITH THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY POSSIBLY REACH
MINIMAL STORM FORCE BY EARLY ON WED MORNING.

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220335
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N83W ALONG 10N91W TO 1010 MB
LOW NEAR 9N98W ALONG 7N108W TO 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N118W TO
8N124W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N132W TO
9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM N AND 150 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 93W-96W...WITHIN
150 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 101W-104W...WITHIN 60 NM S OF
MONSOON TROUGH 120W-123W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
134W-137W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD EXTENDING SW
FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER NW MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
TO NEAR 20N116W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 30N138W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING SE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH TO NEAR
25N122W. AS A RESULT...FLOW INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS
BRINGING SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WITH RELATED DRY AND STABLE AIR
ACROSS THE AREA N OF 19N. S OF 19N THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY
MOIST WITH ASSOCIATED ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ
AND MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH LOCATED
NEAR 30N140W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 20N110W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS INDUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA DESCRIBED FROM 9N-25N W OF
130W/134W. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD AND SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY SAT AS HIGH LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE BUILDING MORE FIRMLY S-SE OVER THE AREA. THESE
WINDS THEN DIMINISH EARLY ON SUN AS THE HIGH AND RIDGE WEAKEN.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 15N116W TO 1009 MB LOW LOW
NEAR 11N117W TO 08N118W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 108W-116W. THIS TROUGH AND LOW
WILL MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE LOW DISSIPATING IN 36 TO 48 HRS. THE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BECOME INTERMIXED WITH THE TRADE WINDS ABOVE
AND BY SUN EVENING MOST OF THE AREA W OF 115W WILL HAVE SEAS OF
8 FT OR GREATER.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE AREA WITH A SECOND SURGE MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE
AREA W OF 124W. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE SE MERGING WITH A S
SWELL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EQUATOR SAT AFTERNOON AS A
THIRD SWELL EVENT MOVES INTO THE NW SECTION. THIS WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE BASIN IN THE 14 TO 16 SEC PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
AND BE OFF THE COAST OF S CALIFORNIA BY SUN NIGHT AND COUPLED
WITH THE DEEP RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SPREADING S OVER THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE A
STRONG WITH THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY POSSIBLY REACH
MINIMAL STORM FORCE BY EARLY ON WED MORNING.

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220335
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N83W ALONG 10N91W TO 1010 MB
LOW NEAR 9N98W ALONG 7N108W TO 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N118W TO
8N124W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N132W TO
9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM N AND 150 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 93W-96W...WITHIN
150 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 101W-104W...WITHIN 60 NM S OF
MONSOON TROUGH 120W-123W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
134W-137W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD EXTENDING SW
FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER NW MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
TO NEAR 20N116W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 30N138W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING SE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH TO NEAR
25N122W. AS A RESULT...FLOW INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS
BRINGING SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WITH RELATED DRY AND STABLE AIR
ACROSS THE AREA N OF 19N. S OF 19N THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY
MOIST WITH ASSOCIATED ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ
AND MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH LOCATED
NEAR 30N140W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 20N110W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS INDUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA DESCRIBED FROM 9N-25N W OF
130W/134W. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD AND SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY SAT AS HIGH LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE BUILDING MORE FIRMLY S-SE OVER THE AREA. THESE
WINDS THEN DIMINISH EARLY ON SUN AS THE HIGH AND RIDGE WEAKEN.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 15N116W TO 1009 MB LOW LOW
NEAR 11N117W TO 08N118W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 108W-116W. THIS TROUGH AND LOW
WILL MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE LOW DISSIPATING IN 36 TO 48 HRS. THE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BECOME INTERMIXED WITH THE TRADE WINDS ABOVE
AND BY SUN EVENING MOST OF THE AREA W OF 115W WILL HAVE SEAS OF
8 FT OR GREATER.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE AREA WITH A SECOND SURGE MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE
AREA W OF 124W. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE SE MERGING WITH A S
SWELL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EQUATOR SAT AFTERNOON AS A
THIRD SWELL EVENT MOVES INTO THE NW SECTION. THIS WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE BASIN IN THE 14 TO 16 SEC PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
AND BE OFF THE COAST OF S CALIFORNIA BY SUN NIGHT AND COUPLED
WITH THE DEEP RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SPREADING S OVER THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE A
STRONG WITH THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY POSSIBLY REACH
MINIMAL STORM FORCE BY EARLY ON WED MORNING.

$$
PAW


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 212325
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
700 PM EST VIERNES 21 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 212325
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
700 PM EST VIERNES 21 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN





000
ABNT20 KNHC 212324
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212324
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven




000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212324
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABNT20 KNHC 212324
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven




000
AXNT20 KNHC 212316
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 9N13W
TO 8N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 6N33W TO 4N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N E OF 24W AND FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 47W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E U.S.
SUPPORTING A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SW OHIO NEAR
39N84W. THIS HIGH EXTENDS S INTO THE GULF PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER
AND 10-15 KT EASTERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND W CUBA FROM 22N84W
TO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N70W. ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE SE
GULF FROM 24N-25N BETWEEN 74W-82W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE S GULF MAINLY S OF
27N AS MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN MOVES NW.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-20 KT TRADEWINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC TO W CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE END OF THIS FRONT NEAR 22N85W TO 18N88W. AN UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 14N80W
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 14N64W SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND E CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 67W. THE
PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AFFECTING THEIR ADJACENT WATERS S
OF 10N. LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO MOVE W ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO
APPROACH THE ISLAND FROM THE E ENHANCING CONVECTION.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER THE W ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 34N56W TO 26N70W AND A STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM
THAT POINT TO W CUBA NEAR 22N85W. ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE SE
GULF FROM 24N-25N BETWEEN 74W-82W. TO THE E...A 1026 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N46W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN FROM 16W-58W. A PAIR OF
SURFACE LOWS ARE INTERACTING NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE 1004
MB ONE IS CENTERED NEAR 28N13N WHILE THE 1006 MB ONE IS NEAR
31N14W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS
NW AFRICA AND AFFECTING THE ADJACENT WATERS FROM 29N-33N...E OF
13W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION WHILE THE STATIONARY
FRONT DISSIPATES. THE LOWS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS WILL MERGE
AND MOVE E ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS NW AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 212316
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 9N13W
TO 8N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 6N33W TO 4N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N E OF 24W AND FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 47W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E U.S.
SUPPORTING A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SW OHIO NEAR
39N84W. THIS HIGH EXTENDS S INTO THE GULF PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER
AND 10-15 KT EASTERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND W CUBA FROM 22N84W
TO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N70W. ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE SE
GULF FROM 24N-25N BETWEEN 74W-82W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE S GULF MAINLY S OF
27N AS MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN MOVES NW.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-20 KT TRADEWINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC TO W CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE END OF THIS FRONT NEAR 22N85W TO 18N88W. AN UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 14N80W
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 14N64W SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND E CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 67W. THE
PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AFFECTING THEIR ADJACENT WATERS S
OF 10N. LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO MOVE W ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO
APPROACH THE ISLAND FROM THE E ENHANCING CONVECTION.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER THE W ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 34N56W TO 26N70W AND A STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM
THAT POINT TO W CUBA NEAR 22N85W. ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE SE
GULF FROM 24N-25N BETWEEN 74W-82W. TO THE E...A 1026 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N46W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN FROM 16W-58W. A PAIR OF
SURFACE LOWS ARE INTERACTING NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE 1004
MB ONE IS CENTERED NEAR 28N13N WHILE THE 1006 MB ONE IS NEAR
31N14W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS
NW AFRICA AND AFFECTING THE ADJACENT WATERS FROM 29N-33N...E OF
13W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION WHILE THE STATIONARY
FRONT DISSIPATES. THE LOWS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS WILL MERGE
AND MOVE E ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS NW AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
ACPN50 PHFO 212237
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

FOSTER






000
ACPN50 PHFO 212237
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

FOSTER





000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212143
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI NOV 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N83W ALONG 10N91W TO 1010 MB
LOW NEAR 9N97W ALONG 7N101W TO 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N118W TO
7N124W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N133W TO
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM
N AND 90 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 92W-95W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 86W-92W...WITHIN 210 NM S OF MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 115W-120W...AND WITHIN 75 NM OF THE ITCZ W OF
137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 100W-105W...WITHIN 120 NM N OF MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 104W-106W...AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN
127W-130W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD EXTENDING SW
FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA ACROSS N BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR
20N120W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 30N138W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS STRETCHING SE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH TO NEAR 25N126W. AS
A RESULT...FLOW INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS BRINGING
SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WITH RELATED DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE
AREA N OF 19N. S OF 19N THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH
ASSOCIATED ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ AND MONSOON
TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED
NEAR 30N140W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 22N115W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS INDUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA DESCRIBED FROM 9N-25N W OF
134W. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD AND SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY SAT AS HIGH LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGE BUILDING MORE FIRMLY S-SE OVER THE AREA. THESE WINDS THEN
DIMINISH EARLY ON SUN AS THE HIGH AND RIDGE WEAKEN. BY SUN
EVENING MOST OF THE AREA W OF 115W WILL HAVE SEAS OF 8 FT OR
GREATER.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 14N115W TO THE 1009 MB LOW
NEAR 11N118W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 112W-115W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 11N-16N
BETWEEN 107W-115W. THIS TROUGH AND LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD WITH
THE LOW DISSIPATING IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BECOME INTERMIXED WITH THE TRADE WINDS ABOVE.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE AREA WITH A SECOND SURGE MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE
AREA W OF 124W. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE SE MERGING WITH A S
SWELL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EQUATOR SAT AFTERNOON AS A
THIRD SWELL EVENT MOVES INTO THE NW SECTION. THIS WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE BASIN IN THE 14 TO 16 SEC PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS FORECAST
TO BE A STRONGER ONE. SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY
POSSIBLY REACH MINIMAL STORM FORCE BY EARLY ON WED MORNING.
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BUILDING SEAS UP TO 20-24 FT WITH
THIS EVENT. EDITS WILL BE MADE TO THE NDFD GRIDS AS NECESSARY
PRIOR TO THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212143
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI NOV 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N83W ALONG 10N91W TO 1010 MB
LOW NEAR 9N97W ALONG 7N101W TO 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N118W TO
7N124W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N133W TO
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM
N AND 90 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 92W-95W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 86W-92W...WITHIN 210 NM S OF MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 115W-120W...AND WITHIN 75 NM OF THE ITCZ W OF
137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 100W-105W...WITHIN 120 NM N OF MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 104W-106W...AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN
127W-130W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD EXTENDING SW
FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA ACROSS N BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR
20N120W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 30N138W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS STRETCHING SE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH TO NEAR 25N126W. AS
A RESULT...FLOW INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS BRINGING
SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WITH RELATED DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE
AREA N OF 19N. S OF 19N THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH
ASSOCIATED ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ AND MONSOON
TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED
NEAR 30N140W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 22N115W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS INDUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA DESCRIBED FROM 9N-25N W OF
134W. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD AND SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY SAT AS HIGH LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGE BUILDING MORE FIRMLY S-SE OVER THE AREA. THESE WINDS THEN
DIMINISH EARLY ON SUN AS THE HIGH AND RIDGE WEAKEN. BY SUN
EVENING MOST OF THE AREA W OF 115W WILL HAVE SEAS OF 8 FT OR
GREATER.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 14N115W TO THE 1009 MB LOW
NEAR 11N118W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 112W-115W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 11N-16N
BETWEEN 107W-115W. THIS TROUGH AND LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD WITH
THE LOW DISSIPATING IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BECOME INTERMIXED WITH THE TRADE WINDS ABOVE.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE AREA WITH A SECOND SURGE MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE
AREA W OF 124W. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE SE MERGING WITH A S
SWELL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EQUATOR SAT AFTERNOON AS A
THIRD SWELL EVENT MOVES INTO THE NW SECTION. THIS WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE BASIN IN THE 14 TO 16 SEC PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS FORECAST
TO BE A STRONGER ONE. SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY
POSSIBLY REACH MINIMAL STORM FORCE BY EARLY ON WED MORNING.
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BUILDING SEAS UP TO 20-24 FT WITH
THIS EVENT. EDITS WILL BE MADE TO THE NDFD GRIDS AS NECESSARY
PRIOR TO THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212143
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI NOV 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N83W ALONG 10N91W TO 1010 MB
LOW NEAR 9N97W ALONG 7N101W TO 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N118W TO
7N124W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N133W TO
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM
N AND 90 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 92W-95W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 86W-92W...WITHIN 210 NM S OF MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 115W-120W...AND WITHIN 75 NM OF THE ITCZ W OF
137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 100W-105W...WITHIN 120 NM N OF MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 104W-106W...AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN
127W-130W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD EXTENDING SW
FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA ACROSS N BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR
20N120W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 30N138W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS STRETCHING SE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH TO NEAR 25N126W. AS
A RESULT...FLOW INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS BRINGING
SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WITH RELATED DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE
AREA N OF 19N. S OF 19N THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH
ASSOCIATED ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ AND MONSOON
TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED
NEAR 30N140W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 22N115W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS INDUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA DESCRIBED FROM 9N-25N W OF
134W. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD AND SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY SAT AS HIGH LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGE BUILDING MORE FIRMLY S-SE OVER THE AREA. THESE WINDS THEN
DIMINISH EARLY ON SUN AS THE HIGH AND RIDGE WEAKEN. BY SUN
EVENING MOST OF THE AREA W OF 115W WILL HAVE SEAS OF 8 FT OR
GREATER.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 14N115W TO THE 1009 MB LOW
NEAR 11N118W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 112W-115W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 11N-16N
BETWEEN 107W-115W. THIS TROUGH AND LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD WITH
THE LOW DISSIPATING IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BECOME INTERMIXED WITH THE TRADE WINDS ABOVE.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE AREA WITH A SECOND SURGE MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE
AREA W OF 124W. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE SE MERGING WITH A S
SWELL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EQUATOR SAT AFTERNOON AS A
THIRD SWELL EVENT MOVES INTO THE NW SECTION. THIS WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE BASIN IN THE 14 TO 16 SEC PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS FORECAST
TO BE A STRONGER ONE. SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY
POSSIBLY REACH MINIMAL STORM FORCE BY EARLY ON WED MORNING.
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BUILDING SEAS UP TO 20-24 FT WITH
THIS EVENT. EDITS WILL BE MADE TO THE NDFD GRIDS AS NECESSARY
PRIOR TO THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 211750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 9N13W
TO 7N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N16W TO 5N30W TO TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 11W-23W...AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 23W-48W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-13N
BETWEEN 48W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA NEAR 38N84W
PRODUCING 10-15 KT EASTERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND W CUBA
FROM 24N80W TO 22N84W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND S FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N E OF 82W.
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 23N-
28N E OF 85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF
TEXAS N OF CORPUS CHRISTI EXTENDING 60 NM OFFSHORE. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO
FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 93W-99W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS
PRODUCING SW FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE S GULF S OF
25N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE N GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SPREAD OVER THE S GULF S OF
27N WITH SURFACE RETURN FLOW.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A STATIONARY
FRONT IS OVER W CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM 22N84W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N88W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
NEAR 14N65W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES E OF 62W.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF JAMAICA NEAR 14N79W WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION
TO SPREAD OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND SE CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY FAR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ISLAND. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N63W TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM N OF FRONT. A 1026 NM HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N45W. A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N14W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 30N14W
ENHANCING SHOWERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT
TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 211750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 9N13W
TO 7N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N16W TO 5N30W TO TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 11W-23W...AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 23W-48W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-13N
BETWEEN 48W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA NEAR 38N84W
PRODUCING 10-15 KT EASTERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND W CUBA
FROM 24N80W TO 22N84W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND S FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N E OF 82W.
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 23N-
28N E OF 85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF
TEXAS N OF CORPUS CHRISTI EXTENDING 60 NM OFFSHORE. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO
FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 93W-99W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS
PRODUCING SW FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE S GULF S OF
25N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE N GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SPREAD OVER THE S GULF S OF
27N WITH SURFACE RETURN FLOW.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A STATIONARY
FRONT IS OVER W CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM 22N84W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N88W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
NEAR 14N65W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES E OF 62W.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF JAMAICA NEAR 14N79W WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION
TO SPREAD OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND SE CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY FAR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ISLAND. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N63W TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM N OF FRONT. A 1026 NM HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N45W. A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N14W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 30N14W
ENHANCING SHOWERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT
TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
ACPN50 PHFO 211745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

FOSTER






000
ACPN50 PHFO 211745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

FOSTER






000
ACPN50 PHFO 211745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

FOSTER






000
ACPN50 PHFO 211745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

FOSTER






000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211732
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211732
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211732
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211732
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 211729
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
100 PM EST VIERNES 21 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 211729
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
100 PM EST VIERNES 21 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 211729
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
100 PM EST VIERNES 21 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 211729
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
100 PM EST VIERNES 21 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA





000
ABNT20 KNHC 211728
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABNT20 KNHC 211728
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211605
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI NOV 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 10N90W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 08N96W 1010 MB TO 08N105W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N117W 1009 MB
TO 07N125W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N125W TO 08N131W TO BEYOND
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 88W-94W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 96W-
101W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 101W-104W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 82W-
88W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ W OF 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD EXTENDS SW FROM
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 23N121W...THEN CONTINUES
WESTWARD AS A SHEAR AXIS TO AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW JUST W OF THE
AREA AT 24N142W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED NNW OF THE LOW
AT 29N143W WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SEWD IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH TO NEAR 25N125W. AS A RESULT...CONFLUENT FLOW INTO THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH IS BRINGING SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WITH RELATED
DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE AREA N OF 19N. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATOCUMLUS CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING SSW
N OF 17N W OF 126N...AND ALSO N OF 19N NW OF LINE FROM 19N121W
TO COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS...IS
NOTED ON WATER SPILLING S AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE...AND INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA NEAR 26N119W. S OF 19N...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY
MOIST AS NOTED BY THE ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ
AND MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS
HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY E OF 130W.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED AT
30N141W TO NEAR 21N119W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS INDUCING AN AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER AN AREA DESCRIBED FROM 10N-23N
W OF 130W. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND
EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY SAT AS HIGH LIFTS NE AND STRENGTHENS SOME
WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE BUILDING MORE FIRMLY SSE OVER THE
AREA. THESE WINDS THEN DIMINISH EARLY ON SUN AS THE HIGH AND
RIDGE WEAKEN...EXCEPT FROM 09N-15N W OF 133W WHERE A RESIDUAL
TIGHT GRADEINT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS
THERE WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT.

A TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 15N114W TO LOW PRES OF 1009 MB NEAR
11N117W AND TO 09N118W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 36-48 HRS. FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEAL THE WEAK CYCLONIC SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE LOW...AND
LOW CLOUDS STREAMING TO THE NW E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...AND TO THE
SW W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 110W-
115W....AND WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 11N108W TO 12N110W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM LATE LAST NIGHT SHOWED NE WINDS IN THE
20-25 KT RANGE FROM 12N TO 16N W OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO 120W.
THIS TROUGH AND LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD WITH AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS AHEAD OF IT...THAT IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH THE
AREA OF THE TRADE WINDS MENTIONED ABOVE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND AT
WHICH TIME TO LOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LOST ITS IDENTITY.

WITH RESPECT TO MARINE ISSUES...LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS DOMINATE
MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 124W. THIS SWELL EVENT IS
MIXING WITH SWELLS FROM THE S THAT HAVE BEEN LINGERING SINCE THE
PAST FEW DAYS. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A NEW SET OF NW
SWELLS WILL REACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY
SAT MORNING. THIS SET OF SWELLS WILL THEN PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS
THE NW AND N CENTRAL WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HRS WITH SEAS TO
9 FT COVERING THE AREA N OF ABOUT 09N W OF ABOUT 118W.

GAP WINDS...N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS LOWERING TO LESS THAN 8 FT.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS FORECAST
TO BE A STRONGER ONE. SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY
POSSIBLY REACH MINIMAL STORM FORCE BY EARLY ON WED MORNING.
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BUILDING SEAS UP TO 20-24 FT WITH
THIS EVENT. EDITS WILL BE MADE TO THE NDFD GRIDS AS NECESSARY
PRIOR TO THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211605
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI NOV 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 10N90W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 08N96W 1010 MB TO 08N105W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N117W 1009 MB
TO 07N125W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N125W TO 08N131W TO BEYOND
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 88W-94W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 96W-
101W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 101W-104W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 82W-
88W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ W OF 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD EXTENDS SW FROM
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 23N121W...THEN CONTINUES
WESTWARD AS A SHEAR AXIS TO AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW JUST W OF THE
AREA AT 24N142W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED NNW OF THE LOW
AT 29N143W WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SEWD IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH TO NEAR 25N125W. AS A RESULT...CONFLUENT FLOW INTO THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH IS BRINGING SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WITH RELATED
DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE AREA N OF 19N. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATOCUMLUS CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING SSW
N OF 17N W OF 126N...AND ALSO N OF 19N NW OF LINE FROM 19N121W
TO COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS...IS
NOTED ON WATER SPILLING S AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE...AND INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA NEAR 26N119W. S OF 19N...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY
MOIST AS NOTED BY THE ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ
AND MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS
HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY E OF 130W.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED AT
30N141W TO NEAR 21N119W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS INDUCING AN AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER AN AREA DESCRIBED FROM 10N-23N
W OF 130W. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND
EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY SAT AS HIGH LIFTS NE AND STRENGTHENS SOME
WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE BUILDING MORE FIRMLY SSE OVER THE
AREA. THESE WINDS THEN DIMINISH EARLY ON SUN AS THE HIGH AND
RIDGE WEAKEN...EXCEPT FROM 09N-15N W OF 133W WHERE A RESIDUAL
TIGHT GRADEINT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS
THERE WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT.

A TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 15N114W TO LOW PRES OF 1009 MB NEAR
11N117W AND TO 09N118W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 36-48 HRS. FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEAL THE WEAK CYCLONIC SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE LOW...AND
LOW CLOUDS STREAMING TO THE NW E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...AND TO THE
SW W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 110W-
115W....AND WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 11N108W TO 12N110W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM LATE LAST NIGHT SHOWED NE WINDS IN THE
20-25 KT RANGE FROM 12N TO 16N W OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO 120W.
THIS TROUGH AND LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD WITH AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS AHEAD OF IT...THAT IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH THE
AREA OF THE TRADE WINDS MENTIONED ABOVE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND AT
WHICH TIME TO LOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LOST ITS IDENTITY.

WITH RESPECT TO MARINE ISSUES...LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS DOMINATE
MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 124W. THIS SWELL EVENT IS
MIXING WITH SWELLS FROM THE S THAT HAVE BEEN LINGERING SINCE THE
PAST FEW DAYS. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A NEW SET OF NW
SWELLS WILL REACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY
SAT MORNING. THIS SET OF SWELLS WILL THEN PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS
THE NW AND N CENTRAL WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HRS WITH SEAS TO
9 FT COVERING THE AREA N OF ABOUT 09N W OF ABOUT 118W.

GAP WINDS...N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS LOWERING TO LESS THAN 8 FT.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS FORECAST
TO BE A STRONGER ONE. SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY
POSSIBLY REACH MINIMAL STORM FORCE BY EARLY ON WED MORNING.
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BUILDING SEAS UP TO 20-24 FT WITH
THIS EVENT. EDITS WILL BE MADE TO THE NDFD GRIDS AS NECESSARY
PRIOR TO THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

$$
AGUIRRE




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