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000
WTPA35 PHFO 200657
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  26B
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
900 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...TROPICAL STORM ANA WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI MOVING SLOWLY
WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM HST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 161.9W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM WSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM W OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. FOR
THE MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 900 PM HST...0700 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 161.9 WEST. ANA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...14 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...WITH ANA EXPECTED TO REMAIN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM THROUGH
TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY...
MAINLY NIIHAU...THIS EVENING...AND OVER NIHOA TONIGHT. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER NECKER ISLAND...FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS...AND TERN ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS AND TERN ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE SWELLS COULD
POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
SHORELINES OF KAUAI.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER
OAHU TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS
OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF ANA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE






000
WTPA35 PHFO 200657
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  26B
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
900 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...TROPICAL STORM ANA WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI MOVING SLOWLY
WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM HST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 161.9W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM WSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM W OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. FOR
THE MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 900 PM HST...0700 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 161.9 WEST. ANA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...14 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...WITH ANA EXPECTED TO REMAIN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM THROUGH
TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY...
MAINLY NIIHAU...THIS EVENING...AND OVER NIHOA TONIGHT. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER NECKER ISLAND...FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS...AND TERN ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS AND TERN ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE SWELLS COULD
POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
SHORELINES OF KAUAI.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER
OAHU TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS
OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF ANA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE







000
WTHW80 PHFO 200617
HLSHFO

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM ANA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
817 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...TROPICAL STORM ANA MOVING AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED STORM INFORMATION SECTION...WINDS AND SEAS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR NIIHAU...KAUAI...AND THE
KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NIIHAU...KAUAI...AND OAHU
UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 PM HST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.7N...LONGITUDE 161.7W...OR ABOUT 175 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LIHUE HAWAII ABOUT 250 MILES WEST OF HONOLULU
HAWAII. TROPICAL STORM ANA IS MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AROUND NIIHAU AND THE LEEWARD
WATERS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI TONIGHT AS ANA CONTINUES TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AREAS OF RAIN...WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS...WILL STILL
AFFECT THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND COULD BRING LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY TO ANY AREAS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR ANY FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS THAT
MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MIDNIGHT HST...OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

HIZ001>004-PHZ112-201430-
/O.CON.PHFO.TR.W.3002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
NIIHAU-KAUAI WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-KAUAI MOUNTAINS-
KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-
817 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS DIMINISH...DO NOT GO OUTSIDE TO
CHECK FOR DAMAGE OR TO IMPLEMENT TEMPORARY REPAIRS UNTIL WINDS
FULLY SUBSIDE. STAY INSIDE AND LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD AVOID THE KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS UNTIL CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
WINDS ON NIIHAU WERE STILL REPORTED TO BE IN THE 30 MPH RANGE THIS
EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE HIGHER...WITH GUSTS OVER
TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND SEAS TO 16 FEET...IN THE WATERS SOUTHWEST
OF NIIHAU THROUGH THE EVENING. AS TROPICAL STORM ANA EXITS THE
AREA...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. WARNINGS WILL BE
DISCONTINUED AS SOON AS THE THREAT COMPLETELY SUBSIDES.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
SOUTH SHORE SURF OF HURRICANE ANA WILL PRODUCE SURF OF 10 TO 15
FEET...SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UNRELATED NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL PRODUCE SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES OF 10 TO 15 FEET
THROUGH TONIGHT.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. REFER TO THE WATCH FOR MORE
DETAILS.

$$
R BALLARD





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 200610
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT LUNES 20 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA AMPLIA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL EXTREMO SUROESTE
DE LA BAHIA DE CAMPECHE ESTA PRODUCIENDO AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS
DESORGANIZADOS. ES POSIBLE ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA
DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL ESTE-NORESTE DE
5 A 10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 10 POR
  CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

UNA AMPLIA BAJA PRESION SIN CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES LOCALIZADA
SOBRE EL LEJANO ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO UNAS CUANTAS CIENTOS DE
MILLAS AL SURESTE DE LAS ISLAS AZORES. ESTE SISTEMA ESTA PRODUCIENDO
VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE GALERNA Y PODRIA ADQUIRIR GRADUALMENTE
CARATERISTICAS SUBTROPICALES DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE
MUEVA LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE SOBRE AGUAS RELATIVAMENTE MAS
CALIENTES. MAS INFORMACION RESPECTO A ESTE SISTEMA SE PUEDE
ENCONTRAR EN EL PRONOSTICO DE ALTA MAR EMITIDO POR METEO FRANCE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 10 POR
  CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

&&

EL PRONOSTICO DE ALTA MAR EMITIDO POR METEO FRANCE ESTA BAJO EL
TITULO EN WMO DE FQNT50 LFPW.

$$
PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 200610
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT LUNES 20 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA AMPLIA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL EXTREMO SUROESTE
DE LA BAHIA DE CAMPECHE ESTA PRODUCIENDO AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS
DESORGANIZADOS. ES POSIBLE ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA
DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL ESTE-NORESTE DE
5 A 10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 10 POR
  CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

UNA AMPLIA BAJA PRESION SIN CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES LOCALIZADA
SOBRE EL LEJANO ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO UNAS CUANTAS CIENTOS DE
MILLAS AL SURESTE DE LAS ISLAS AZORES. ESTE SISTEMA ESTA PRODUCIENDO
VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE GALERNA Y PODRIA ADQUIRIR GRADUALMENTE
CARATERISTICAS SUBTROPICALES DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE
MUEVA LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE SOBRE AGUAS RELATIVAMENTE MAS
CALIENTES. MAS INFORMACION RESPECTO A ESTE SISTEMA SE PUEDE
ENCONTRAR EN EL PRONOSTICO DE ALTA MAR EMITIDO POR METEO FRANCE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 10 POR
  CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

&&

EL PRONOSTICO DE ALTA MAR EMITIDO POR METEO FRANCE ESTA BAJO EL
TITULO EN WMO DE FQNT50 LFPW.

$$
PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN




000
AXNT20 KNHC 200605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS
LISTED UNDER GRAND LARGE METAREA II...AT 19/2215 UTC...FOR THE
SECTIONS THAT ARE TITLED...IRVING...AND MADEIRA. GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N42W 12N43W
7N44W...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 39W AND 47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 15N BETWEEN 38W
AND 52W. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS RELATED ONLY TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE...AND SOME IS IN THE ITCZ.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS
OF SENEGAL NEAR 16N16W TO 13N20W AND 11N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 11N23W TO 8N30W 10N38W...TOWARD THE TROPICAL WAVE...TO
9N46W AND 5N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 9W AND
40W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W WESTWARD. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE WEST CENTRAL
GULF...BEYOND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA INTO TEXAS.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO FROM 25N NORTHWARD FROM 90W EASTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM
25N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W EASTWARD. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA RIDGE. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO FROM 87W EASTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...CLOSE TO THE COAST.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 19N TO 21N
BETWEEN 93W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 24N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 92W AND THE COAST.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KOPM...
KBBF...KVAF...KVQT...KSPR...KGRY...KIPN...KVOA...AND KDLP.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

EDINBURG TEXAS IN THE LOWER VALLEY AND ALICE TEXAS ARE REPORTING
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG ARE
BEING REPORTED AT PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI. LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA
DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N70W TO 25N73W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 20N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 20N66W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 23N
BETWEEN 60W AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...IN SURFACE-
TO-LOW LEVEL EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
20/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.22 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N74W IN COLOMBIA...AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD TO PANAMA...WESTWARD ACROSS PANAMA...AND BEYOND
THE SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N
TO 12N BETWEEN 73W AND 74W...FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 76W AND
77W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 12N81W...AND FROM 7N TO 9N
BETWEEN 72W AND 74W IN COLOMBIA AND NEARBY VENEZUELA.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 20N66W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 23N
BETWEEN 60W AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER WERE BEING REPORTED AT SANTO
DOMINGO AND PUNTA CANA AND SANTIAGO. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER
WERE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA DURING THE LAST FEW
OBSERVATIONS. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT
OTHER OBSERVING SITES ACROSS THE ISLAND.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OR SO. THE TROUGH THAT WILL COVER HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE EASTWARD.
A RIDGE WILL END UP ACROSS THE AREA BY 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT WEAK CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 30 TO
36 HOURS. AN EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE
REST OF THE TIME PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN EAST-TO-WEST
ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO
25N73W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 29N74W TO THE EASTERN
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N80W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES...THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND PARTS OF CUBA...TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W 27N65W
23N70W 22N76W...ACROSS CUBA TO 23N85W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 29N89W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N66W 23N68W TO
20N75W IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT ARE WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA...TO 29N70W AND
28N80W ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 20N66W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 23N
BETWEEN 60W AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 27N54W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N TO 32N BETWEEN 42W AND 60W. SOME OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT IS EVIDENT FROM 10N TO 20N IS THE RESULT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW THAT IS CROSSING 60W FROM THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...CONTINUING INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND BEING
CAUGHT UP IN THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE 27N54W CYCLONIC CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
30N52W...TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N54W...
TO 23N56W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 49W AND 56W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N21W TO
24N23W AND 9N29W. THE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N13W...ACROSS THE
CANARY ISLANDS...TO 25N20W AND 23N24W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N24W TO 20N31W 23N40W AND 31N48W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 30N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 19W AND 25W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 39W AND 45W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST...NORTH...AND NORTHEAST OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N11W 24N16W 19N28W 20N40W 32N49W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 200605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS
LISTED UNDER GRAND LARGE METAREA II...AT 19/2215 UTC...FOR THE
SECTIONS THAT ARE TITLED...IRVING...AND MADEIRA. GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N42W 12N43W
7N44W...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 39W AND 47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 15N BETWEEN 38W
AND 52W. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS RELATED ONLY TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE...AND SOME IS IN THE ITCZ.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS
OF SENEGAL NEAR 16N16W TO 13N20W AND 11N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 11N23W TO 8N30W 10N38W...TOWARD THE TROPICAL WAVE...TO
9N46W AND 5N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 9W AND
40W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W WESTWARD. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE WEST CENTRAL
GULF...BEYOND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA INTO TEXAS.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO FROM 25N NORTHWARD FROM 90W EASTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM
25N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W EASTWARD. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA RIDGE. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO FROM 87W EASTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...CLOSE TO THE COAST.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 19N TO 21N
BETWEEN 93W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 24N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 92W AND THE COAST.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KOPM...
KBBF...KVAF...KVQT...KSPR...KGRY...KIPN...KVOA...AND KDLP.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

EDINBURG TEXAS IN THE LOWER VALLEY AND ALICE TEXAS ARE REPORTING
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG ARE
BEING REPORTED AT PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI. LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA
DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N70W TO 25N73W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 20N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 20N66W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 23N
BETWEEN 60W AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...IN SURFACE-
TO-LOW LEVEL EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
20/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.22 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N74W IN COLOMBIA...AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD TO PANAMA...WESTWARD ACROSS PANAMA...AND BEYOND
THE SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N
TO 12N BETWEEN 73W AND 74W...FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 76W AND
77W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 12N81W...AND FROM 7N TO 9N
BETWEEN 72W AND 74W IN COLOMBIA AND NEARBY VENEZUELA.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 20N66W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 23N
BETWEEN 60W AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER WERE BEING REPORTED AT SANTO
DOMINGO AND PUNTA CANA AND SANTIAGO. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER
WERE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA DURING THE LAST FEW
OBSERVATIONS. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT
OTHER OBSERVING SITES ACROSS THE ISLAND.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OR SO. THE TROUGH THAT WILL COVER HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE EASTWARD.
A RIDGE WILL END UP ACROSS THE AREA BY 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT WEAK CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 30 TO
36 HOURS. AN EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE
REST OF THE TIME PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN EAST-TO-WEST
ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO
25N73W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 29N74W TO THE EASTERN
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N80W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES...THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND PARTS OF CUBA...TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W 27N65W
23N70W 22N76W...ACROSS CUBA TO 23N85W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 29N89W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N66W 23N68W TO
20N75W IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT ARE WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA...TO 29N70W AND
28N80W ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 20N66W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 23N
BETWEEN 60W AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 27N54W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N TO 32N BETWEEN 42W AND 60W. SOME OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT IS EVIDENT FROM 10N TO 20N IS THE RESULT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW THAT IS CROSSING 60W FROM THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...CONTINUING INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND BEING
CAUGHT UP IN THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE 27N54W CYCLONIC CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
30N52W...TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N54W...
TO 23N56W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 49W AND 56W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N21W TO
24N23W AND 9N29W. THE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N13W...ACROSS THE
CANARY ISLANDS...TO 25N20W AND 23N24W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N24W TO 20N31W 23N40W AND 31N48W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 30N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 19W AND 25W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 39W AND 45W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST...NORTH...AND NORTHEAST OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N11W 24N16W 19N28W 20N40W 32N49W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
ACPN50 PHFO 200519
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU...HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ANA...LOCATED ABOUT 180 MILES
WEST SOUTHWEST OF LIHUE...HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP5 AND WMO
HEADER WTPA35 PHFO.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

$$

HOUSTON






000
ACPN50 PHFO 200519
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU...HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ANA...LOCATED ABOUT 180 MILES
WEST SOUTHWEST OF LIHUE...HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP5 AND WMO
HEADER WTPA35 PHFO.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

$$

HOUSTON





000
ABNT20 KNHC 200515
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located over the extreme southwestern
Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next
several days while it moves eastward to east-northeastward at 5 to
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores. This system is
producing gale-force winds and could gradually acquire some
subtropical characteristics during the next few days while it
moves slowly westward over relatively warm waters. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
WTPA35 PHFO 200515 CCA
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  26A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
700 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...TROPICAL STORM ANA SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM HST...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 161.7W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM WSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM W OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR THE
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM HST...0500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 161.7 WEST. ANA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...14 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...WITH ANA EXPECTED TO REMAIN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM THROUGH
TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
THROUGH THE EVENING...AND OVER NIHOA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER NECKER ISLAND...FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS...AND TERN ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS AND TERN ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE SWELLS COULD
POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
SHORELINES OF KAUAI.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO OAHU. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER
IN THE DAY OVER OAHU AND MAUI.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...
WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF ANA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...900 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE








000
WTPA35 PHFO 200515 CCA
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  26A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
700 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...TROPICAL STORM ANA SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM HST...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 161.7W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM WSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM W OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR THE
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM HST...0500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 161.7 WEST. ANA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...14 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...WITH ANA EXPECTED TO REMAIN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM THROUGH
TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
THROUGH THE EVENING...AND OVER NIHOA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER NECKER ISLAND...FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS...AND TERN ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS AND TERN ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE SWELLS COULD
POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
SHORELINES OF KAUAI.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO OAHU. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER
IN THE DAY OVER OAHU AND MAUI.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...
WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF ANA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...900 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE







000
ABNT20 KNHC 200515
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located over the extreme southwestern
Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next
several days while it moves eastward to east-northeastward at 5 to
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores. This system is
producing gale-force winds and could gradually acquire some
subtropical characteristics during the next few days while it
moves slowly westward over relatively warm waters. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200502
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200502
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
WTPA35 PHFO 200501
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  26A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
700 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...TROPICAL STORM ANA SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM HST...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 161.7W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM WSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM W OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR THE
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM HST...0500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 161.7 WEST. ANA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...14 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...WITH ANA EXPECTED TO REMAIN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM THROUGH
TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TODAY...AND OVER NIHOA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER NECKER ISLAND...FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS...AND TERN
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS AND TERN ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES OF KAUAI.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI TODAY. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATER IN THE DAY OVER OAHU AND MAUI.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF
ANA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...900 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE






000
WTPA35 PHFO 200501
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  26A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
700 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...TROPICAL STORM ANA SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM HST...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 161.7W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM WSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM W OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR THE
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM HST...0500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 161.7 WEST. ANA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...14 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...WITH ANA EXPECTED TO REMAIN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM THROUGH
TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TODAY...AND OVER NIHOA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER NECKER ISLAND...FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS...AND TERN
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS AND TERN ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES OF KAUAI.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI TODAY. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATER IN THE DAY OVER OAHU AND MAUI.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF
ANA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...900 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE







000
WTPA35 PHFO 200240
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
500 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...TROPICAL STORM ANA SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 161.3W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM W OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ANA DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR THE
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 161.3 WEST. ANA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST OS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...WITH ANA EXPECTED TO REMAIN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM THROUGH
TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TODAY...AND OVER NIHOA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER NECKER ISLAND...FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS...AND TERN
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS AND TERN ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY...AND WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI TODAY. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATER IN THE DAY OVER OAHU AND MAUI.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF
ANA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...700 PM HST AND 900 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER POWELL






000
WTPA35 PHFO 200240
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
500 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...TROPICAL STORM ANA SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 161.3W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM W OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ANA DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR THE
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 161.3 WEST. ANA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST OS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...WITH ANA EXPECTED TO REMAIN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM THROUGH
TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TODAY...AND OVER NIHOA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER NECKER ISLAND...FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS...AND TERN
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS AND TERN ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY...AND WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI TODAY. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATER IN THE DAY OVER OAHU AND MAUI.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF
ANA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...700 PM HST AND 900 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER POWELL







000
WTPA25 PHFO 200240
TCMCP5

TROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
0300 UTC MON OCT 20 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ANA DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR THE
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 161.3W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  70SW 110NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 161.3W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 160.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.9N 162.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.6N 164.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.6N 165.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.8N 166.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 26.4N 167.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.1N 168.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 31.9N 167.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 161.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER POWELL








000
WTPA25 PHFO 200240
TCMCP5

TROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
0300 UTC MON OCT 20 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ANA DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR THE
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 161.3W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  70SW 110NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 161.3W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 160.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.9N 162.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.6N 164.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.6N 165.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.8N 166.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 26.4N 167.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.1N 168.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 31.9N 167.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 161.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER POWELL








000
WTPA25 PHFO 200240
TCMCP5

TROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
0300 UTC MON OCT 20 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ANA DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR THE
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 161.3W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  70SW 110NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 161.3W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 160.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.9N 162.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.6N 164.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.6N 165.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.8N 166.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 26.4N 167.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.1N 168.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 31.9N 167.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 161.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER POWELL








000
WTPA25 PHFO 200240
TCMCP5

TROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
0300 UTC MON OCT 20 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ANA DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR THE
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 161.3W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  70SW 110NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 161.3W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 160.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.9N 162.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.6N 164.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.6N 165.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.8N 166.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 26.4N 167.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.1N 168.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 31.9N 167.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 161.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER POWELL








000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200236
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N82W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N88W 1008
MB TO 14N91W TO LOW PRES NEAR 16N99W 1007 MB TO 11N111W TO
11N120W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N120W TO 11N131W TO 08N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 12N
BETWEEN 126W AND 136W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90
NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 117W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ALONG 138W N OF 26N SUPPORTS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM
30N133W TO 25N140W. LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA THROUGH MON WITH SEAS REACHING 15-16 FT
IN FAR NW PART TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR THE DYING FRONT WILL LIFT NE TONIGHT. FRONT WILL TRANSITION
TO A FRONTAL TROUGH BY MON AFTERNOON AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY
TUE MORNING. AREA OF HIGH SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MON AND
TUE AS THE SWELL PROPAGATES SE FURTHER AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT
S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT AND MON...ALLOWING COMBINED
SEAS TO APPROACH 8 FT BETWEEN 95W AND 105W.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS
W OF 115W...PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND
W OF 113W. A RIDGE WILL PERSIST SE OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH
MON. LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED S OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200236
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N82W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N88W 1008
MB TO 14N91W TO LOW PRES NEAR 16N99W 1007 MB TO 11N111W TO
11N120W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N120W TO 11N131W TO 08N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 12N
BETWEEN 126W AND 136W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90
NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 117W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ALONG 138W N OF 26N SUPPORTS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM
30N133W TO 25N140W. LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA THROUGH MON WITH SEAS REACHING 15-16 FT
IN FAR NW PART TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR THE DYING FRONT WILL LIFT NE TONIGHT. FRONT WILL TRANSITION
TO A FRONTAL TROUGH BY MON AFTERNOON AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY
TUE MORNING. AREA OF HIGH SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MON AND
TUE AS THE SWELL PROPAGATES SE FURTHER AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT
S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT AND MON...ALLOWING COMBINED
SEAS TO APPROACH 8 FT BETWEEN 95W AND 105W.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS
W OF 115W...PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND
W OF 113W. A RIDGE WILL PERSIST SE OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH
MON. LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED S OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL



000
WTHW80 PHFO 200135
HLSHFO

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM ANA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
335 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANA SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...

.NEW INFORMATION...
ANA IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR NIIHAU...KAUAI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR KAUAI CHANNEL.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR KAUAI COUNTY THROUGH 6 PM
HST MONDAY.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 3 PM HST...ANA WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE CENTER
OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7N...LONGITUDE
160.9W...OR ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LIHUE HAWAII ABOUT 210
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII. TROPICAL STORM ANA IS
MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
ANA IS NOW A TROPICAL STORM. ANA HAS TAKEN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE SLOW WEST NORTHWEST MOTION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AND A SWING TO THE NORTH LATE MONDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY INSIDE...PREFERABLY IN AN INTERIOR ROOM...AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE WHEN HIGH WINDS ARE OCCURRING
OR DURING TEMPORARY LULLS AS FLYING DEBRIS CAN CAUSE SERIOUS
INJURY.

HAVE A WELL-CHARGED CELL PHONE HANDY...BUT SAVE IT FOR
EMERGENCIES ONLY. THIS WILL HELP KEEP NETWORK COMMUNICATIONS
OPEN AND CONSERVE YOUR BATTERY POWER.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION.

FOR SMALL CRAFT WHO FAILED TO MAKE IT TO SAFE HARBOR OR PORT...
AND ARE NOW IN DISTRESS...RADIO YOUR SITUATION ACCORDING TO
MARITIME PROTOCOL. IF APPROPRIATE...DEPLOY YOUR EMERGENCY
DISTRESS BEACON. ENSURE THAT EVERYONE IS WEARING LIFE JACKETS...
AND SURVIVAL SUITS IF AVAILABLE.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 600 PM HST...OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

HIZ001>004-200945-
/O.CON.PHFO.TR.W.3002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
NIIHAU-KAUAI WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-KAUAI MOUNTAINS-
335 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SECURE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND AND CAUSE
ADDITIONAL DAMAGE. TROPICAL STORMS CAN BRING VERY HEAVY RAIN
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING. PEOPLE NEAR STREAMS...RIVERS...AND LOW-
LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS ARE URGED TO BE ESPECIALLY ALERT TO
FLASH FLOODING.

MOTORISTS NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR ROAD CLOSURES...DEBRIS ON
ROADWAYS...AND PONDING OF WATER.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR
HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IS 4 PERCENT AT LIHUE...AND 21 PERCENT AT NIIHAU. THESE
VALUES REPRESENT LITTLE CHANGE FOR NIIHAU AND LIHUE SINCE THE 11
AM FORECAST.

...WINDS...
WINDS ACROSS NIIHAU MAY REACH 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ACROSS KAUAI MAY REACH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE UP TO 2 FT IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 10 TO 15 FT...SLOWLY
SUBSIDING THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE INCOMING NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PRODUCE SURF OF ALONG NORTH
FACING SHORES...AT 10 TO 15 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT PERIOD SWELL ALONG THE EAST FACING SHORES WILL BRING SURF
OF 4 TO 7 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 6 PM
MONDAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS KAUAI AND
NIIHAU THROUGH MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING.

$$

PHZ112-200945-
/O.CON.PHFO.HU.W.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-
335 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED. MARINERS
SHOULD BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE PORT CLOSURES.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 65 KTS AND SEAS ABOVE 25 KT ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS AND SEAS TO 25 FT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE LEEWARD COASTAL WATERS.

$$

PHZ113-200945-
/O.CON.PHFO.TR.W.3002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
KAUAI CHANNEL-
335 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.
MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE PORT CLOSURES.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
ANA WILL PRODUCE WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 16 FEET
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE KAUAI CHANNEL MARINE ZONE. A
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ADD TO THE SEAS PRODUCED BY HURRICANE ANA.

$$








000
WTHW80 PHFO 200135
HLSHFO

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM ANA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
335 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANA SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...

.NEW INFORMATION...
ANA IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR NIIHAU...KAUAI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR KAUAI CHANNEL.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR KAUAI COUNTY THROUGH 6 PM
HST MONDAY.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 3 PM HST...ANA WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE CENTER
OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7N...LONGITUDE
160.9W...OR ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LIHUE HAWAII ABOUT 210
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII. TROPICAL STORM ANA IS
MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
ANA IS NOW A TROPICAL STORM. ANA HAS TAKEN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE SLOW WEST NORTHWEST MOTION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AND A SWING TO THE NORTH LATE MONDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY INSIDE...PREFERABLY IN AN INTERIOR ROOM...AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE WHEN HIGH WINDS ARE OCCURRING
OR DURING TEMPORARY LULLS AS FLYING DEBRIS CAN CAUSE SERIOUS
INJURY.

HAVE A WELL-CHARGED CELL PHONE HANDY...BUT SAVE IT FOR
EMERGENCIES ONLY. THIS WILL HELP KEEP NETWORK COMMUNICATIONS
OPEN AND CONSERVE YOUR BATTERY POWER.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION.

FOR SMALL CRAFT WHO FAILED TO MAKE IT TO SAFE HARBOR OR PORT...
AND ARE NOW IN DISTRESS...RADIO YOUR SITUATION ACCORDING TO
MARITIME PROTOCOL. IF APPROPRIATE...DEPLOY YOUR EMERGENCY
DISTRESS BEACON. ENSURE THAT EVERYONE IS WEARING LIFE JACKETS...
AND SURVIVAL SUITS IF AVAILABLE.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 600 PM HST...OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

HIZ001>004-200945-
/O.CON.PHFO.TR.W.3002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
NIIHAU-KAUAI WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-KAUAI MOUNTAINS-
335 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SECURE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND AND CAUSE
ADDITIONAL DAMAGE. TROPICAL STORMS CAN BRING VERY HEAVY RAIN
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING. PEOPLE NEAR STREAMS...RIVERS...AND LOW-
LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS ARE URGED TO BE ESPECIALLY ALERT TO
FLASH FLOODING.

MOTORISTS NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR ROAD CLOSURES...DEBRIS ON
ROADWAYS...AND PONDING OF WATER.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR
HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IS 4 PERCENT AT LIHUE...AND 21 PERCENT AT NIIHAU. THESE
VALUES REPRESENT LITTLE CHANGE FOR NIIHAU AND LIHUE SINCE THE 11
AM FORECAST.

...WINDS...
WINDS ACROSS NIIHAU MAY REACH 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ACROSS KAUAI MAY REACH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE UP TO 2 FT IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 10 TO 15 FT...SLOWLY
SUBSIDING THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE INCOMING NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PRODUCE SURF OF ALONG NORTH
FACING SHORES...AT 10 TO 15 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT PERIOD SWELL ALONG THE EAST FACING SHORES WILL BRING SURF
OF 4 TO 7 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 6 PM
MONDAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS KAUAI AND
NIIHAU THROUGH MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING.

$$

PHZ112-200945-
/O.CON.PHFO.HU.W.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-
335 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED. MARINERS
SHOULD BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE PORT CLOSURES.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 65 KTS AND SEAS ABOVE 25 KT ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS AND SEAS TO 25 FT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE LEEWARD COASTAL WATERS.

$$

PHZ113-200945-
/O.CON.PHFO.TR.W.3002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
KAUAI CHANNEL-
335 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.
MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE PORT CLOSURES.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
ANA WILL PRODUCE WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 16 FEET
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE KAUAI CHANNEL MARINE ZONE. A
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ADD TO THE SEAS PRODUCED BY HURRICANE ANA.

$$








000
WTHW80 PHFO 200135
HLSHFO

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM ANA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
335 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANA SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...

.NEW INFORMATION...
ANA IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR NIIHAU...KAUAI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR KAUAI CHANNEL.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR KAUAI COUNTY THROUGH 6 PM
HST MONDAY.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 3 PM HST...ANA WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE CENTER
OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7N...LONGITUDE
160.9W...OR ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LIHUE HAWAII ABOUT 210
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII. TROPICAL STORM ANA IS
MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
ANA IS NOW A TROPICAL STORM. ANA HAS TAKEN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE SLOW WEST NORTHWEST MOTION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AND A SWING TO THE NORTH LATE MONDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY INSIDE...PREFERABLY IN AN INTERIOR ROOM...AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE WHEN HIGH WINDS ARE OCCURRING
OR DURING TEMPORARY LULLS AS FLYING DEBRIS CAN CAUSE SERIOUS
INJURY.

HAVE A WELL-CHARGED CELL PHONE HANDY...BUT SAVE IT FOR
EMERGENCIES ONLY. THIS WILL HELP KEEP NETWORK COMMUNICATIONS
OPEN AND CONSERVE YOUR BATTERY POWER.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION.

FOR SMALL CRAFT WHO FAILED TO MAKE IT TO SAFE HARBOR OR PORT...
AND ARE NOW IN DISTRESS...RADIO YOUR SITUATION ACCORDING TO
MARITIME PROTOCOL. IF APPROPRIATE...DEPLOY YOUR EMERGENCY
DISTRESS BEACON. ENSURE THAT EVERYONE IS WEARING LIFE JACKETS...
AND SURVIVAL SUITS IF AVAILABLE.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 600 PM HST...OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

HIZ001>004-200945-
/O.CON.PHFO.TR.W.3002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
NIIHAU-KAUAI WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-KAUAI MOUNTAINS-
335 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SECURE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND AND CAUSE
ADDITIONAL DAMAGE. TROPICAL STORMS CAN BRING VERY HEAVY RAIN
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING. PEOPLE NEAR STREAMS...RIVERS...AND LOW-
LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS ARE URGED TO BE ESPECIALLY ALERT TO
FLASH FLOODING.

MOTORISTS NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR ROAD CLOSURES...DEBRIS ON
ROADWAYS...AND PONDING OF WATER.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR
HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IS 4 PERCENT AT LIHUE...AND 21 PERCENT AT NIIHAU. THESE
VALUES REPRESENT LITTLE CHANGE FOR NIIHAU AND LIHUE SINCE THE 11
AM FORECAST.

...WINDS...
WINDS ACROSS NIIHAU MAY REACH 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ACROSS KAUAI MAY REACH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE UP TO 2 FT IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 10 TO 15 FT...SLOWLY
SUBSIDING THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE INCOMING NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PRODUCE SURF OF ALONG NORTH
FACING SHORES...AT 10 TO 15 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT PERIOD SWELL ALONG THE EAST FACING SHORES WILL BRING SURF
OF 4 TO 7 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 6 PM
MONDAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS KAUAI AND
NIIHAU THROUGH MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING.

$$

PHZ112-200945-
/O.CON.PHFO.HU.W.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-
335 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED. MARINERS
SHOULD BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE PORT CLOSURES.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 65 KTS AND SEAS ABOVE 25 KT ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS AND SEAS TO 25 FT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE LEEWARD COASTAL WATERS.

$$

PHZ113-200945-
/O.CON.PHFO.TR.W.3002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
KAUAI CHANNEL-
335 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.
MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE PORT CLOSURES.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
ANA WILL PRODUCE WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 16 FEET
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE KAUAI CHANNEL MARINE ZONE. A
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ADD TO THE SEAS PRODUCED BY HURRICANE ANA.

$$








000
WTHW80 PHFO 200135
HLSHFO

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM ANA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
335 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANA SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...

.NEW INFORMATION...
ANA IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR NIIHAU...KAUAI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR KAUAI CHANNEL.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR KAUAI COUNTY THROUGH 6 PM
HST MONDAY.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 3 PM HST...ANA WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE CENTER
OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7N...LONGITUDE
160.9W...OR ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LIHUE HAWAII ABOUT 210
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII. TROPICAL STORM ANA IS
MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
ANA IS NOW A TROPICAL STORM. ANA HAS TAKEN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE SLOW WEST NORTHWEST MOTION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AND A SWING TO THE NORTH LATE MONDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY INSIDE...PREFERABLY IN AN INTERIOR ROOM...AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE WHEN HIGH WINDS ARE OCCURRING
OR DURING TEMPORARY LULLS AS FLYING DEBRIS CAN CAUSE SERIOUS
INJURY.

HAVE A WELL-CHARGED CELL PHONE HANDY...BUT SAVE IT FOR
EMERGENCIES ONLY. THIS WILL HELP KEEP NETWORK COMMUNICATIONS
OPEN AND CONSERVE YOUR BATTERY POWER.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION.

FOR SMALL CRAFT WHO FAILED TO MAKE IT TO SAFE HARBOR OR PORT...
AND ARE NOW IN DISTRESS...RADIO YOUR SITUATION ACCORDING TO
MARITIME PROTOCOL. IF APPROPRIATE...DEPLOY YOUR EMERGENCY
DISTRESS BEACON. ENSURE THAT EVERYONE IS WEARING LIFE JACKETS...
AND SURVIVAL SUITS IF AVAILABLE.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 600 PM HST...OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

HIZ001>004-200945-
/O.CON.PHFO.TR.W.3002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
NIIHAU-KAUAI WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-KAUAI MOUNTAINS-
335 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SECURE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND AND CAUSE
ADDITIONAL DAMAGE. TROPICAL STORMS CAN BRING VERY HEAVY RAIN
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING. PEOPLE NEAR STREAMS...RIVERS...AND LOW-
LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS ARE URGED TO BE ESPECIALLY ALERT TO
FLASH FLOODING.

MOTORISTS NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR ROAD CLOSURES...DEBRIS ON
ROADWAYS...AND PONDING OF WATER.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR
HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IS 4 PERCENT AT LIHUE...AND 21 PERCENT AT NIIHAU. THESE
VALUES REPRESENT LITTLE CHANGE FOR NIIHAU AND LIHUE SINCE THE 11
AM FORECAST.

...WINDS...
WINDS ACROSS NIIHAU MAY REACH 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ACROSS KAUAI MAY REACH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE UP TO 2 FT IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 10 TO 15 FT...SLOWLY
SUBSIDING THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE INCOMING NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PRODUCE SURF OF ALONG NORTH
FACING SHORES...AT 10 TO 15 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT PERIOD SWELL ALONG THE EAST FACING SHORES WILL BRING SURF
OF 4 TO 7 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 6 PM
MONDAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS KAUAI AND
NIIHAU THROUGH MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING.

$$

PHZ112-200945-
/O.CON.PHFO.HU.W.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-
335 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED. MARINERS
SHOULD BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE PORT CLOSURES.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 65 KTS AND SEAS ABOVE 25 KT ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS AND SEAS TO 25 FT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE LEEWARD COASTAL WATERS.

$$

PHZ113-200945-
/O.CON.PHFO.TR.W.3002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
KAUAI CHANNEL-
335 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.
MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE PORT CLOSURES.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
ANA WILL PRODUCE WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 16 FEET
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE KAUAI CHANNEL MARINE ZONE. A
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ADD TO THE SEAS PRODUCED BY HURRICANE ANA.

$$








000
WTPA35 PHFO 200102
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  25B
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
300 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANA SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM HST...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 160.9W
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM SW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 210 MI...325 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ANA IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. FOR THE MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 300 PM HST...0100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 160.9 WEST. ANA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ANA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TODAY...AND OVER NIHOA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER NECKER ISLAND...FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS...AND TERN
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS AND TERN ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY...AND WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI TODAY. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATER IN THE DAY OVER OAHU AND MAUI.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF
ANA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER POWELL






000
WTPA35 PHFO 200102
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  25B
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
300 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANA SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM HST...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 160.9W
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM SW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 210 MI...325 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ANA IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. FOR THE MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 300 PM HST...0100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 160.9 WEST. ANA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ANA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TODAY...AND OVER NIHOA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER NECKER ISLAND...FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS...AND TERN
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS AND TERN ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY...AND WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI TODAY. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATER IN THE DAY OVER OAHU AND MAUI.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF
ANA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER POWELL







000
ACCA62 TJSJ 192356
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT DOMINGO 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES HA EMITIDO LA ULTIMA ADVERTENCIA
SOBRE EL EL CICLON POST TROPICAL GONZALO...LOCALIZADO A VARIOS
CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL NORESTE DE NEWFOUNDLAND.

UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL EXTREMO SUROESTE DE
LA BAHIA DE CAMPECHE ESTA PRODUCIENDO AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS
DESORGANIZADOS. ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA ES POSIBLE
DURNATE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE DE
5 A 10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 10 POR
  CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

UNA BAJA PRESION AMPLIA NO TROPICAL ESTA LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL LEJANO
ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO APROXIMADAMENTE A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS
AL SURESTE DE LAS ISLAS AZORES. ESTE SISTEMA ESTA PRODUCIENDO
VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE GALERNA Y PODRIA ADQUIRIR CARATERISTICAS
SUBTROPICALES DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL
OESTE SOBRE AGUAS RELATIVAMENTE MAS CALIENTES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 10 POR
  CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 192356
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT DOMINGO 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES HA EMITIDO LA ULTIMA ADVERTENCIA
SOBRE EL EL CICLON POST TROPICAL GONZALO...LOCALIZADO A VARIOS
CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL NORESTE DE NEWFOUNDLAND.

UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL EXTREMO SUROESTE DE
LA BAHIA DE CAMPECHE ESTA PRODUCIENDO AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS
DESORGANIZADOS. ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA ES POSIBLE
DURNATE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE DE
5 A 10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 10 POR
  CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

UNA BAJA PRESION AMPLIA NO TROPICAL ESTA LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL LEJANO
ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO APROXIMADAMENTE A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS
AL SURESTE DE LAS ISLAS AZORES. ESTE SISTEMA ESTA PRODUCIENDO
VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE GALERNA Y PODRIA ADQUIRIR CARATERISTICAS
SUBTROPICALES DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL
OESTE SOBRE AGUAS RELATIVAMENTE MAS CALIENTES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 10 POR
  CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 192356
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT DOMINGO 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES HA EMITIDO LA ULTIMA ADVERTENCIA
SOBRE EL EL CICLON POST TROPICAL GONZALO...LOCALIZADO A VARIOS
CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL NORESTE DE NEWFOUNDLAND.

UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL EXTREMO SUROESTE DE
LA BAHIA DE CAMPECHE ESTA PRODUCIENDO AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS
DESORGANIZADOS. ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA ES POSIBLE
DURNATE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE DE
5 A 10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 10 POR
  CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

UNA BAJA PRESION AMPLIA NO TROPICAL ESTA LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL LEJANO
ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO APROXIMADAMENTE A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS
AL SURESTE DE LAS ISLAS AZORES. ESTE SISTEMA ESTA PRODUCIENDO
VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE GALERNA Y PODRIA ADQUIRIR CARATERISTICAS
SUBTROPICALES DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL
OESTE SOBRE AGUAS RELATIVAMENTE MAS CALIENTES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 10 POR
  CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 192356
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT DOMINGO 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES HA EMITIDO LA ULTIMA ADVERTENCIA
SOBRE EL EL CICLON POST TROPICAL GONZALO...LOCALIZADO A VARIOS
CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL NORESTE DE NEWFOUNDLAND.

UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL EXTREMO SUROESTE DE
LA BAHIA DE CAMPECHE ESTA PRODUCIENDO AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS
DESORGANIZADOS. ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA ES POSIBLE
DURNATE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE DE
5 A 10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 10 POR
  CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

UNA BAJA PRESION AMPLIA NO TROPICAL ESTA LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL LEJANO
ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO APROXIMADAMENTE A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS
AL SURESTE DE LAS ISLAS AZORES. ESTE SISTEMA ESTA PRODUCIENDO
VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE GALERNA Y PODRIA ADQUIRIR CARATERISTICAS
SUBTROPICALES DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL
OESTE SOBRE AGUAS RELATIVAMENTE MAS CALIENTES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 10 POR
  CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 192356
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT DOMINGO 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES HA EMITIDO LA ULTIMA ADVERTENCIA
SOBRE EL EL CICLON POST TROPICAL GONZALO...LOCALIZADO A VARIOS
CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL NORESTE DE NEWFOUNDLAND.

UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL EXTREMO SUROESTE DE
LA BAHIA DE CAMPECHE ESTA PRODUCIENDO AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS
DESORGANIZADOS. ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA ES POSIBLE
DURNATE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE DE
5 A 10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 10 POR
  CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

UNA BAJA PRESION AMPLIA NO TROPICAL ESTA LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL LEJANO
ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO APROXIMADAMENTE A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS
AL SURESTE DE LAS ISLAS AZORES. ESTE SISTEMA ESTA PRODUCIENDO
VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE GALERNA Y PODRIA ADQUIRIR CARATERISTICAS
SUBTROPICALES DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL
OESTE SOBRE AGUAS RELATIVAMENTE MAS CALIENTES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 10 POR
  CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 192356
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT DOMINGO 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES HA EMITIDO LA ULTIMA ADVERTENCIA
SOBRE EL EL CICLON POST TROPICAL GONZALO...LOCALIZADO A VARIOS
CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL NORESTE DE NEWFOUNDLAND.

UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL EXTREMO SUROESTE DE
LA BAHIA DE CAMPECHE ESTA PRODUCIENDO AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS
DESORGANIZADOS. ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA ES POSIBLE
DURNATE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE DE
5 A 10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 10 POR
  CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

UNA BAJA PRESION AMPLIA NO TROPICAL ESTA LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL LEJANO
ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO APROXIMADAMENTE A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS
AL SURESTE DE LAS ISLAS AZORES. ESTE SISTEMA ESTA PRODUCIENDO
VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE GALERNA Y PODRIA ADQUIRIR CARATERISTICAS
SUBTROPICALES DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL
OESTE SOBRE AGUAS RELATIVAMENTE MAS CALIENTES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 10 POR
  CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN





000
ACPN50 PHFO 192343
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE...LOCATED 120 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LIHUE HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP5 AND WMO HEADER
WTPA35 PHFO.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

EVANS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 192343
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE...LOCATED 120 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LIHUE HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP5 AND WMO HEADER
WTPA35 PHFO.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

EVANS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 192343
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE...LOCATED 120 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LIHUE HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP5 AND WMO HEADER
WTPA35 PHFO.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

EVANS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 192343
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE...LOCATED 120 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LIHUE HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP5 AND WMO HEADER
WTPA35 PHFO.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

EVANS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 192343
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE...LOCATED 120 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LIHUE HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP5 AND WMO HEADER
WTPA35 PHFO.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

EVANS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 192343
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE...LOCATED 120 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LIHUE HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP5 AND WMO HEADER
WTPA35 PHFO.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

EVANS





000
ABNT20 KNHC 192338
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo, that is located several hundred
miles northeast of Newfoundland.

A broad area of low pressure located over the extreme southwestern
Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next
several days while it moves east-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores.  This system is
producing gale-force winds, and the low could gradually acquire
subtropical characteristics during the next several days while it
moves slowly westward over relatively warm waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
ABNT20 KNHC 192338
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo, that is located several hundred
miles northeast of Newfoundland.

A broad area of low pressure located over the extreme southwestern
Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next
several days while it moves east-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores.  This system is
producing gale-force winds, and the low could gradually acquire
subtropical characteristics during the next several days while it
moves slowly westward over relatively warm waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABNT20 KNHC 192338
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo, that is located several hundred
miles northeast of Newfoundland.

A broad area of low pressure located over the extreme southwestern
Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next
several days while it moves east-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores.  This system is
producing gale-force winds, and the low could gradually acquire
subtropical characteristics during the next several days while it
moves slowly westward over relatively warm waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
ABNT20 KNHC 192338
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo, that is located several hundred
miles northeast of Newfoundland.

A broad area of low pressure located over the extreme southwestern
Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next
several days while it moves east-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores.  This system is
producing gale-force winds, and the low could gradually acquire
subtropical characteristics during the next several days while it
moves slowly westward over relatively warm waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192334
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192334
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192334
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192334
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192334
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
AXNT20 KNHC 192331
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GONZALO HAS BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTERED AT 19/2100
UTC NEAR 51.6N 41.8W OR ABOUT 485 NM NE OF ST. JOHNS
NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NE AT 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH
GUST TO 85 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 52N-58N BETWEEN 33W-
43W. PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS THAT
EXTENDS FROM 16N41W TO 05N44W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A DECREASE ON
THE DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AS THE WAVE CONTINUES
MOVING W SUPPORTING CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 06N-16N BETWEEN 40W-46W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 15N18W AND CONTINUES TO 08N25W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
08N25W TO 09N27W TO 11N39W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL
WAVE AT 06N44W TO 05N51W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 44W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 KT ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. A
SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 23N98W
TO 19N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 24N W OF 93W.
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AT UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
93W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND SE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

05-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST N OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES
CAUSED BY DAYTIME HEATING/OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION PERSISTS S OF 14N CAUSED BY THE PROXIMITY OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SUPPORTED BY UPPER-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE PRODUCING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND.
EXPECT SIMILAR ACTIVITY TO FORM ONCE AGAIN IN 24 HOURS.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 28N80W TO A 1004 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 40N66W. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 25N67W TO 23N69W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED AT AROUND 75 NM SE OF THIS
BOUNDARY. A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N56W WITH AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N55W TO 19N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 50W-55W. A 997 MB LOW IS N OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS CENTERED NEAR 33N20W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THIS LOW TO 20N30W AND A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM
20N30W TO 32N55W. CLUSTERS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 42W-51W. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N53W ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO
NEAR 19N66W KEEPING A DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF THE BAHAMAS. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE ESE
ENHANCING CONVECTION. THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RIVERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 192331
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GONZALO HAS BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTERED AT 19/2100
UTC NEAR 51.6N 41.8W OR ABOUT 485 NM NE OF ST. JOHNS
NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NE AT 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH
GUST TO 85 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 52N-58N BETWEEN 33W-
43W. PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS THAT
EXTENDS FROM 16N41W TO 05N44W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A DECREASE ON
THE DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AS THE WAVE CONTINUES
MOVING W SUPPORTING CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 06N-16N BETWEEN 40W-46W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 15N18W AND CONTINUES TO 08N25W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
08N25W TO 09N27W TO 11N39W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL
WAVE AT 06N44W TO 05N51W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 44W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 KT ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. A
SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 23N98W
TO 19N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 24N W OF 93W.
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AT UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
93W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND SE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

05-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST N OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES
CAUSED BY DAYTIME HEATING/OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION PERSISTS S OF 14N CAUSED BY THE PROXIMITY OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SUPPORTED BY UPPER-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE PRODUCING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND.
EXPECT SIMILAR ACTIVITY TO FORM ONCE AGAIN IN 24 HOURS.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 28N80W TO A 1004 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 40N66W. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 25N67W TO 23N69W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED AT AROUND 75 NM SE OF THIS
BOUNDARY. A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N56W WITH AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N55W TO 19N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 50W-55W. A 997 MB LOW IS N OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS CENTERED NEAR 33N20W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THIS LOW TO 20N30W AND A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM
20N30W TO 32N55W. CLUSTERS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 42W-51W. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N53W ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO
NEAR 19N66W KEEPING A DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF THE BAHAMAS. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE ESE
ENHANCING CONVECTION. THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RIVERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 192331
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GONZALO HAS BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTERED AT 19/2100
UTC NEAR 51.6N 41.8W OR ABOUT 485 NM NE OF ST. JOHNS
NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NE AT 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH
GUST TO 85 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 52N-58N BETWEEN 33W-
43W. PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS THAT
EXTENDS FROM 16N41W TO 05N44W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A DECREASE ON
THE DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AS THE WAVE CONTINUES
MOVING W SUPPORTING CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 06N-16N BETWEEN 40W-46W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 15N18W AND CONTINUES TO 08N25W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
08N25W TO 09N27W TO 11N39W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL
WAVE AT 06N44W TO 05N51W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 44W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 KT ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. A
SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 23N98W
TO 19N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 24N W OF 93W.
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AT UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
93W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND SE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

05-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST N OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES
CAUSED BY DAYTIME HEATING/OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION PERSISTS S OF 14N CAUSED BY THE PROXIMITY OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SUPPORTED BY UPPER-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE PRODUCING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND.
EXPECT SIMILAR ACTIVITY TO FORM ONCE AGAIN IN 24 HOURS.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 28N80W TO A 1004 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 40N66W. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 25N67W TO 23N69W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED AT AROUND 75 NM SE OF THIS
BOUNDARY. A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N56W WITH AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N55W TO 19N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 50W-55W. A 997 MB LOW IS N OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS CENTERED NEAR 33N20W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THIS LOW TO 20N30W AND A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM
20N30W TO 32N55W. CLUSTERS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 42W-51W. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N53W ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO
NEAR 19N66W KEEPING A DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF THE BAHAMAS. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE ESE
ENHANCING CONVECTION. THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RIVERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 192331
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GONZALO HAS BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTERED AT 19/2100
UTC NEAR 51.6N 41.8W OR ABOUT 485 NM NE OF ST. JOHNS
NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NE AT 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH
GUST TO 85 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 52N-58N BETWEEN 33W-
43W. PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS THAT
EXTENDS FROM 16N41W TO 05N44W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A DECREASE ON
THE DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AS THE WAVE CONTINUES
MOVING W SUPPORTING CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 06N-16N BETWEEN 40W-46W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 15N18W AND CONTINUES TO 08N25W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
08N25W TO 09N27W TO 11N39W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL
WAVE AT 06N44W TO 05N51W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 44W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 KT ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. A
SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 23N98W
TO 19N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 24N W OF 93W.
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AT UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
93W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND SE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

05-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST N OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES
CAUSED BY DAYTIME HEATING/OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION PERSISTS S OF 14N CAUSED BY THE PROXIMITY OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SUPPORTED BY UPPER-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE PRODUCING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND.
EXPECT SIMILAR ACTIVITY TO FORM ONCE AGAIN IN 24 HOURS.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 28N80W TO A 1004 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 40N66W. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 25N67W TO 23N69W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED AT AROUND 75 NM SE OF THIS
BOUNDARY. A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N56W WITH AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N55W TO 19N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 50W-55W. A 997 MB LOW IS N OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS CENTERED NEAR 33N20W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THIS LOW TO 20N30W AND A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM
20N30W TO 32N55W. CLUSTERS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 42W-51W. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N53W ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO
NEAR 19N66W KEEPING A DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF THE BAHAMAS. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE ESE
ENHANCING CONVECTION. THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RIVERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 192331
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GONZALO HAS BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTERED AT 19/2100
UTC NEAR 51.6N 41.8W OR ABOUT 485 NM NE OF ST. JOHNS
NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NE AT 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH
GUST TO 85 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 52N-58N BETWEEN 33W-
43W. PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS THAT
EXTENDS FROM 16N41W TO 05N44W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A DECREASE ON
THE DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AS THE WAVE CONTINUES
MOVING W SUPPORTING CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 06N-16N BETWEEN 40W-46W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 15N18W AND CONTINUES TO 08N25W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
08N25W TO 09N27W TO 11N39W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL
WAVE AT 06N44W TO 05N51W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 44W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 KT ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. A
SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 23N98W
TO 19N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 24N W OF 93W.
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AT UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
93W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND SE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

05-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST N OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES
CAUSED BY DAYTIME HEATING/OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION PERSISTS S OF 14N CAUSED BY THE PROXIMITY OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SUPPORTED BY UPPER-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE PRODUCING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND.
EXPECT SIMILAR ACTIVITY TO FORM ONCE AGAIN IN 24 HOURS.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 28N80W TO A 1004 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 40N66W. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 25N67W TO 23N69W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED AT AROUND 75 NM SE OF THIS
BOUNDARY. A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N56W WITH AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N55W TO 19N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 50W-55W. A 997 MB LOW IS N OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS CENTERED NEAR 33N20W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THIS LOW TO 20N30W AND A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM
20N30W TO 32N55W. CLUSTERS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 42W-51W. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N53W ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO
NEAR 19N66W KEEPING A DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF THE BAHAMAS. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE ESE
ENHANCING CONVECTION. THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RIVERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 192331
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GONZALO HAS BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTERED AT 19/2100
UTC NEAR 51.6N 41.8W OR ABOUT 485 NM NE OF ST. JOHNS
NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NE AT 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH
GUST TO 85 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 52N-58N BETWEEN 33W-
43W. PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS THAT
EXTENDS FROM 16N41W TO 05N44W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A DECREASE ON
THE DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AS THE WAVE CONTINUES
MOVING W SUPPORTING CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 06N-16N BETWEEN 40W-46W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 15N18W AND CONTINUES TO 08N25W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
08N25W TO 09N27W TO 11N39W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL
WAVE AT 06N44W TO 05N51W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 44W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 KT ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. A
SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 23N98W
TO 19N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 24N W OF 93W.
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AT UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
93W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND SE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

05-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST N OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES
CAUSED BY DAYTIME HEATING/OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION PERSISTS S OF 14N CAUSED BY THE PROXIMITY OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SUPPORTED BY UPPER-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE PRODUCING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND.
EXPECT SIMILAR ACTIVITY TO FORM ONCE AGAIN IN 24 HOURS.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 28N80W TO A 1004 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 40N66W. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 25N67W TO 23N69W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED AT AROUND 75 NM SE OF THIS
BOUNDARY. A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N56W WITH AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N55W TO 19N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 50W-55W. A 997 MB LOW IS N OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS CENTERED NEAR 33N20W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THIS LOW TO 20N30W AND A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM
20N30W TO 32N55W. CLUSTERS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 42W-51W. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N53W ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO
NEAR 19N66W KEEPING A DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF THE BAHAMAS. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE ESE
ENHANCING CONVECTION. THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RIVERA


000
WTPA35 PHFO 192259
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  25A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
100 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANA SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM HST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 160.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR THE
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM HST...2300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 160.6 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ANA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TODAY...AND OVER NIHOA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER NECKER ISLAND...FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS...AND TERN
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS AND TERN ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY...AND WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI TODAY. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATER IN THE DAY OVER OAHU AND MAUI.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF
ANA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...300 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER POWELL






000
WTPA35 PHFO 192259
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  25A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
100 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANA SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM HST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 160.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR THE
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM HST...2300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 160.6 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ANA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TODAY...AND OVER NIHOA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER NECKER ISLAND...FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS...AND TERN
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS AND TERN ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY...AND WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI TODAY. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATER IN THE DAY OVER OAHU AND MAUI.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF
ANA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...300 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER POWELL







000
WTPA35 PHFO 192259
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  25A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
100 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANA SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM HST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 160.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR THE
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM HST...2300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 160.6 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ANA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TODAY...AND OVER NIHOA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER NECKER ISLAND...FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS...AND TERN
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS AND TERN ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY...AND WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI TODAY. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATER IN THE DAY OVER OAHU AND MAUI.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF
ANA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...300 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER POWELL






000
WTPA35 PHFO 192259
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  25A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
100 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANA SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM HST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 160.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR THE
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM HST...2300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 160.6 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ANA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TODAY...AND OVER NIHOA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER NECKER ISLAND...FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS...AND TERN
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS AND TERN ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY...AND WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI TODAY. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATER IN THE DAY OVER OAHU AND MAUI.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF
ANA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...300 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER POWELL







000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192125
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N88W 1010
MB TO 14N92W TO LOW PRES NEAR 16N99W 1009 MB TO 11N111W TO
11N129W TO 08N137W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N137W TO 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N AND
30 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ALONG 140W N OF 27N SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 30N134W TO
27N140W. LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SWEEP
INTO THE AREA THROUGH MON WITH SEAS REACHING 15-16 FT IN FAR NW
PART TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
THE FRONT WILL LIFT NE TONIGHT AND FRONT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN W
OF 125W THROUGH MON...BECOMING A FRONTAL TROUGH MON AFTERNOON
AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATING BY TUE MORNING. THE AREA OF HIGH SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MON AND TUE AS THE SWELL PROPAGATES SE
FURTHER AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE AND THE FRONT WEAKENS.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT
S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT AND MON...ALLOWING COMBINED
SEAS TO APPROACH 8 FT BETWEEN 95W AND 105W.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS
W OF 115W...PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND
W OF 113W. A RIDGE WILL PERSIST SE OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH
MON. LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED S OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192125
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N88W 1010
MB TO 14N92W TO LOW PRES NEAR 16N99W 1009 MB TO 11N111W TO
11N129W TO 08N137W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N137W TO 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N AND
30 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ALONG 140W N OF 27N SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 30N134W TO
27N140W. LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SWEEP
INTO THE AREA THROUGH MON WITH SEAS REACHING 15-16 FT IN FAR NW
PART TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
THE FRONT WILL LIFT NE TONIGHT AND FRONT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN W
OF 125W THROUGH MON...BECOMING A FRONTAL TROUGH MON AFTERNOON
AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATING BY TUE MORNING. THE AREA OF HIGH SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MON AND TUE AS THE SWELL PROPAGATES SE
FURTHER AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE AND THE FRONT WEAKENS.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT
S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT AND MON...ALLOWING COMBINED
SEAS TO APPROACH 8 FT BETWEEN 95W AND 105W.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS
W OF 115W...PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND
W OF 113W. A RIDGE WILL PERSIST SE OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH
MON. LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED S OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192125
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N88W 1010
MB TO 14N92W TO LOW PRES NEAR 16N99W 1009 MB TO 11N111W TO
11N129W TO 08N137W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N137W TO 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N AND
30 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ALONG 140W N OF 27N SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 30N134W TO
27N140W. LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SWEEP
INTO THE AREA THROUGH MON WITH SEAS REACHING 15-16 FT IN FAR NW
PART TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
THE FRONT WILL LIFT NE TONIGHT AND FRONT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN W
OF 125W THROUGH MON...BECOMING A FRONTAL TROUGH MON AFTERNOON
AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATING BY TUE MORNING. THE AREA OF HIGH SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MON AND TUE AS THE SWELL PROPAGATES SE
FURTHER AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE AND THE FRONT WEAKENS.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT
S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT AND MON...ALLOWING COMBINED
SEAS TO APPROACH 8 FT BETWEEN 95W AND 105W.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS
W OF 115W...PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND
W OF 113W. A RIDGE WILL PERSIST SE OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH
MON. LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED S OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192125
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N88W 1010
MB TO 14N92W TO LOW PRES NEAR 16N99W 1009 MB TO 11N111W TO
11N129W TO 08N137W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N137W TO 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N AND
30 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ALONG 140W N OF 27N SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 30N134W TO
27N140W. LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SWEEP
INTO THE AREA THROUGH MON WITH SEAS REACHING 15-16 FT IN FAR NW
PART TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
THE FRONT WILL LIFT NE TONIGHT AND FRONT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN W
OF 125W THROUGH MON...BECOMING A FRONTAL TROUGH MON AFTERNOON
AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATING BY TUE MORNING. THE AREA OF HIGH SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MON AND TUE AS THE SWELL PROPAGATES SE
FURTHER AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE AND THE FRONT WEAKENS.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT
S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT AND MON...ALLOWING COMBINED
SEAS TO APPROACH 8 FT BETWEEN 95W AND 105W.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS
W OF 115W...PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND
W OF 113W. A RIDGE WILL PERSIST SE OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH
MON. LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED S OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL


000
WTPA35 PHFO 192046
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
1100 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANA SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI NOW MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 160.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 160.6 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ANA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.30 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TODAY...AND OVER NIHOA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER NECKER ISLAND...FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS...AND TERN
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS AND TERN ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY...AND WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI TODAY. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATER IN THE DAY OVER OAHU AND MAUI.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF
ANA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...100 PM HST AND 300 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER POWELL








000
WTPA35 PHFO 192046
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
1100 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANA SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI NOW MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 160.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 160.6 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ANA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.30 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TODAY...AND OVER NIHOA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER NECKER ISLAND...FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS...AND TERN
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS AND TERN ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY...AND WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI TODAY. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATER IN THE DAY OVER OAHU AND MAUI.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF
ANA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...100 PM HST AND 300 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER POWELL








000
WTPA35 PHFO 192046
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
1100 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANA SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI NOW MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 160.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 160.6 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ANA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.30 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TODAY...AND OVER NIHOA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER NECKER ISLAND...FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS...AND TERN
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS AND TERN ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY...AND WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI TODAY. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATER IN THE DAY OVER OAHU AND MAUI.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF
ANA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...100 PM HST AND 300 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER POWELL








000
WTPA35 PHFO 192046
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
1100 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANA SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI NOW MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 160.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 160.6 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ANA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.30 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TODAY...AND OVER NIHOA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER NECKER ISLAND...FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS...AND TERN
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS AND TERN ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY...AND WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI TODAY. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATER IN THE DAY OVER OAHU AND MAUI.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF
ANA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...100 PM HST AND 300 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER POWELL








000
WTPA25 PHFO 192045
TCMCP5

HURRICANE ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
2100 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR THE
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 160.6W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  70SW 110NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 160.6W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 160.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.9N 161.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.4N 163.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 22.2N 165.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 23.2N 166.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.8N 167.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 28.5N 168.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 31.3N 167.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 160.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER POWELL







000
WTPA25 PHFO 192045
TCMCP5

HURRICANE ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
2100 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR THE
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 160.6W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  70SW 110NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 160.6W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 160.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.9N 161.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.4N 163.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 22.2N 165.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 23.2N 166.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.8N 167.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 28.5N 168.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 31.3N 167.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 160.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER POWELL








000
WTNT33 KNHC 192038
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
500 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

...GONZALO BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE FAR
NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...51.6N 41.8W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM NE OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 52 MPH...83 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 51.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.8 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR
52 MPH...83 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STEADY DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES...500 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON GONZALO. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTNT23 KNHC 192038
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
2100 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.6N  41.8W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  60 DEGREES AT  45 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 100SE  50SW   0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 160SE  90SW  40NW.
34 KT.......180NE 270SE 180SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 240SE 540SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.6N  41.8W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 50.7N  45.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 53.6N  31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.
50 KT...  0NE 180SE 150SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 300SE 270SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 56.5N  15.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 320SE 360SW 360NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 58.5N   1.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE 320SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 180SE 420SW 380NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 64.5N   1.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE 360SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 540SW 420NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 51.6N  41.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON GONZALO. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





000
WTNT23 KNHC 192038
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
2100 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.6N  41.8W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  60 DEGREES AT  45 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 100SE  50SW   0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 160SE  90SW  40NW.
34 KT.......180NE 270SE 180SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 240SE 540SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.6N  41.8W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 50.7N  45.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 53.6N  31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.
50 KT...  0NE 180SE 150SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 300SE 270SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 56.5N  15.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 320SE 360SW 360NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 58.5N   1.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE 320SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 180SE 420SW 380NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 64.5N   1.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE 360SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 540SW 420NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 51.6N  41.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON GONZALO. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





000
WTNT33 KNHC 192038
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
500 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

...GONZALO BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE FAR
NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...51.6N 41.8W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM NE OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 52 MPH...83 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 51.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.8 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR
52 MPH...83 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STEADY DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES...500 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON GONZALO. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



000
WTNT23 KNHC 192038
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
2100 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.6N  41.8W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  60 DEGREES AT  45 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 100SE  50SW   0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 160SE  90SW  40NW.
34 KT.......180NE 270SE 180SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 240SE 540SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.6N  41.8W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 50.7N  45.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 53.6N  31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.
50 KT...  0NE 180SE 150SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 300SE 270SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 56.5N  15.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 320SE 360SW 360NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 58.5N   1.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE 320SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 180SE 420SW 380NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 64.5N   1.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE 360SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 540SW 420NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 51.6N  41.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON GONZALO. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





000
WTNT23 KNHC 192038
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
2100 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.6N  41.8W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  60 DEGREES AT  45 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 100SE  50SW   0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 160SE  90SW  40NW.
34 KT.......180NE 270SE 180SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 240SE 540SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.6N  41.8W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 50.7N  45.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 53.6N  31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.
50 KT...  0NE 180SE 150SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 300SE 270SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 56.5N  15.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 320SE 360SW 360NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 58.5N   1.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE 320SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 180SE 420SW 380NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 64.5N   1.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE 360SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 540SW 420NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 51.6N  41.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON GONZALO. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





000
WTNT33 KNHC 192038
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
500 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

...GONZALO BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE FAR
NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...51.6N 41.8W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM NE OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 52 MPH...83 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 51.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.8 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR
52 MPH...83 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STEADY DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES...500 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON GONZALO. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



000
WTNT23 KNHC 192038
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
2100 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.6N  41.8W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  60 DEGREES AT  45 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 100SE  50SW   0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 160SE  90SW  40NW.
34 KT.......180NE 270SE 180SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 240SE 540SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.6N  41.8W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 50.7N  45.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 53.6N  31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.
50 KT...  0NE 180SE 150SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 300SE 270SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 56.5N  15.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 320SE 360SW 360NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 58.5N   1.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE 320SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 180SE 420SW 380NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 64.5N   1.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE 360SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 540SW 420NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 51.6N  41.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON GONZALO. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





000
WTNT23 KNHC 192038
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
2100 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.6N  41.8W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  60 DEGREES AT  45 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 100SE  50SW   0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 160SE  90SW  40NW.
34 KT.......180NE 270SE 180SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 240SE 540SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.6N  41.8W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 50.7N  45.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 53.6N  31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.
50 KT...  0NE 180SE 150SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 300SE 270SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 56.5N  15.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 320SE 360SW 360NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 58.5N   1.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE 320SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 180SE 420SW 380NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 64.5N   1.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE 360SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 540SW 420NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 51.6N  41.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON GONZALO. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





000
WTNT33 KNHC 192038
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
500 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

...GONZALO BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE FAR
NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...51.6N 41.8W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM NE OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 52 MPH...83 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 51.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.8 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR
52 MPH...83 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STEADY DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES...500 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON GONZALO. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



000
WTPA35 PHFO 191902
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  24B
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
900 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANA SOUTH OF KAUAI AND NOW MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM HST...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 160.1W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR THE
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 900 AM HST...1900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 160.1 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...8 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED AND A SWING TO THE NORTH AFTER MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...25 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TODAY...AND OVER NIHOA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER NECKER ISLAND...FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS...AND TERN
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS AND TERN ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY...AND WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI TODAY. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATER IN THE DAY OVER OAHU AND MAUI.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF
ANA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER POWELL






000
WTPA35 PHFO 191902
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  24B
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
900 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANA SOUTH OF KAUAI AND NOW MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM HST...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 160.1W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR THE
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 900 AM HST...1900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 160.1 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...8 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED AND A SWING TO THE NORTH AFTER MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...25 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TODAY...AND OVER NIHOA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER NECKER ISLAND...FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS...AND TERN
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS AND TERN ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY...AND WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI TODAY. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATER IN THE DAY OVER OAHU AND MAUI.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF
ANA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER POWELL







000
ACCA62 TJSJ 191902
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN GONZALO...LOCALIZADO AL ESTE DE NEWFOUNDLAND.

UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION SE HA DESARROLLADO SOBRE EL EXTREMO
SUROESTE DE LA BAHIA DE CAMPECHE JUSTO AL SURESTE DE
VERACRUZ..MEXICO. ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA ES
POSIBLE DURNATE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL ESTE
NORESTE A 5 A 10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

UNA BAJA PRESION AMPLIA NO TROPICAL ESTA LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL LEJANO
ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO APROXIMADAMENTE A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS
DE LAS ISLAS CANARIAS. ESTE SISTEMA ESTA PRODUCIENDO VIENTOS CON
FUERZA DE GALERNA Y PODRIA ADQUIRIR CARATERISTICAS SUBTROPICALES
PARA MEDIADOS DE SEMANA MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA OESTE A OESTE
NOROESTE SOBRE AGUAS RELATIVAMENTE MAS CALIENTES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 191902
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN GONZALO...LOCALIZADO AL ESTE DE NEWFOUNDLAND.

UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION SE HA DESARROLLADO SOBRE EL EXTREMO
SUROESTE DE LA BAHIA DE CAMPECHE JUSTO AL SURESTE DE
VERACRUZ..MEXICO. ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA ES
POSIBLE DURNATE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL ESTE
NORESTE A 5 A 10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

UNA BAJA PRESION AMPLIA NO TROPICAL ESTA LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL LEJANO
ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO APROXIMADAMENTE A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS
DE LAS ISLAS CANARIAS. ESTE SISTEMA ESTA PRODUCIENDO VIENTOS CON
FUERZA DE GALERNA Y PODRIA ADQUIRIR CARATERISTICAS SUBTROPICALES
PARA MEDIADOS DE SEMANA MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA OESTE A OESTE
NOROESTE SOBRE AGUAS RELATIVAMENTE MAS CALIENTES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 191902
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN GONZALO...LOCALIZADO AL ESTE DE NEWFOUNDLAND.

UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION SE HA DESARROLLADO SOBRE EL EXTREMO
SUROESTE DE LA BAHIA DE CAMPECHE JUSTO AL SURESTE DE
VERACRUZ..MEXICO. ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA ES
POSIBLE DURNATE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL ESTE
NORESTE A 5 A 10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

UNA BAJA PRESION AMPLIA NO TROPICAL ESTA LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL LEJANO
ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO APROXIMADAMENTE A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS
DE LAS ISLAS CANARIAS. ESTE SISTEMA ESTA PRODUCIENDO VIENTOS CON
FUERZA DE GALERNA Y PODRIA ADQUIRIR CARATERISTICAS SUBTROPICALES
PARA MEDIADOS DE SEMANA MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA OESTE A OESTE
NOROESTE SOBRE AGUAS RELATIVAMENTE MAS CALIENTES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 191902
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN GONZALO...LOCALIZADO AL ESTE DE NEWFOUNDLAND.

UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION SE HA DESARROLLADO SOBRE EL EXTREMO
SUROESTE DE LA BAHIA DE CAMPECHE JUSTO AL SURESTE DE
VERACRUZ..MEXICO. ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA ES
POSIBLE DURNATE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL ESTE
NORESTE A 5 A 10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

UNA BAJA PRESION AMPLIA NO TROPICAL ESTA LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL LEJANO
ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO APROXIMADAMENTE A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS
DE LAS ISLAS CANARIAS. ESTE SISTEMA ESTA PRODUCIENDO VIENTOS CON
FUERZA DE GALERNA Y PODRIA ADQUIRIR CARATERISTICAS SUBTROPICALES
PARA MEDIADOS DE SEMANA MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA OESTE A OESTE
NOROESTE SOBRE AGUAS RELATIVAMENTE MAS CALIENTES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART




000
AXNT20 KNHC 191750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 49.0N 47.3W AT 19/1500 UTC OR
ABOUT 230 NM ENE OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NE AT 45 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUST TO 90 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 49N-54N BETWEEN 43W-47W. PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC
AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 16N39W
TO 4N43W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 5N-16N BETWEEN 36W-46W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 5N25W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N25W
TO 6N40W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF A TROPICA WAVE AT 6N45W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 10W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM COCOA
BEACH FLORIDA AT 28N81W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 27N90W
TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AT 28N97W. 15 KT NE WINDS ARE N OF THE
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N98W
TO 18N94W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-25N
BETWEEN 92W-98W. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 84W-86W. FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 93W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST AND SPREAD
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND SE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 5-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 71W-84W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO EL
SALVADOR. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF CUBA FROM 19N-
22N BETWEEN 78W-84W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE ALONGTHE COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 61W-71W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W
OF 80W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO
NEAR 20N65W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT
OVER CUBA. EXPECT THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY VERY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AGAIN TO BE OVER THE ISLAND MON
WITH CONVECTION N OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N75W TO COCOA BEACH
FLORIDA AT 28N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 23N56W
MOVING N AT 10 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N54W TO THE
LOW CENTER TO 19N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-
29N BETWEEN 51W-58W. A 1003 MB LOW IS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
NEAR 33N19W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE
CANARY ISLANDS AT 28N16W TO 21N26W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE CANARY ISLANDS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N52W ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E
WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 191750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 49.0N 47.3W AT 19/1500 UTC OR
ABOUT 230 NM ENE OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NE AT 45 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUST TO 90 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 49N-54N BETWEEN 43W-47W. PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC
AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 16N39W
TO 4N43W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 5N-16N BETWEEN 36W-46W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 5N25W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N25W
TO 6N40W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF A TROPICA WAVE AT 6N45W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 10W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM COCOA
BEACH FLORIDA AT 28N81W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 27N90W
TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AT 28N97W. 15 KT NE WINDS ARE N OF THE
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N98W
TO 18N94W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-25N
BETWEEN 92W-98W. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 84W-86W. FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 93W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST AND SPREAD
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND SE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 5-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 71W-84W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO EL
SALVADOR. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF CUBA FROM 19N-
22N BETWEEN 78W-84W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE ALONGTHE COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 61W-71W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W
OF 80W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO
NEAR 20N65W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT
OVER CUBA. EXPECT THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY VERY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AGAIN TO BE OVER THE ISLAND MON
WITH CONVECTION N OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N75W TO COCOA BEACH
FLORIDA AT 28N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 23N56W
MOVING N AT 10 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N54W TO THE
LOW CENTER TO 19N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-
29N BETWEEN 51W-58W. A 1003 MB LOW IS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
NEAR 33N19W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE
CANARY ISLANDS AT 28N16W TO 21N26W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE CANARY ISLANDS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N52W ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E
WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 191733
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN GONZALO...LOCALIZADO AL ESTE DE NEWFOUNDLAND.

UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION SE HA DESARROLLADO SOBRE EL EXTREMO
SUROESTE DE LA BAHIA DE CAMPECHE JUSTO AL SURESTE DE
VERACRUZ..MEXICO. ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA ES
POSIBLE DURNATE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL ESTE
NORESTE A 5 A 10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

UNA BAJA PRESION AMPLIA NO TROPICAL ESTA LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL LEJANO
ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO APROXIMADAMENTE A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS
DE LAS ISLAS CANARIAS. ESTE SISTEMA ESTA PRODUCIENDO VIENTOS CON
FUERZA DE GALERNA Y PODRIA ADQUIRIR CARATERISTICAS SUBTROPICALES
PARA MEDIADOS DE SEMANA MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA OESTE A OESTE
NOROESTE SOBRE AGUAS RELATIVAMENTE MAS CALIENTES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 191733
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN GONZALO...LOCALIZADO AL ESTE DE NEWFOUNDLAND.

UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION SE HA DESARROLLADO SOBRE EL EXTREMO
SUROESTE DE LA BAHIA DE CAMPECHE JUSTO AL SURESTE DE
VERACRUZ..MEXICO. ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA ES
POSIBLE DURNATE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL ESTE
NORESTE A 5 A 10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

UNA BAJA PRESION AMPLIA NO TROPICAL ESTA LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL LEJANO
ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO APROXIMADAMENTE A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS
DE LAS ISLAS CANARIAS. ESTE SISTEMA ESTA PRODUCIENDO VIENTOS CON
FUERZA DE GALERNA Y PODRIA ADQUIRIR CARATERISTICAS SUBTROPICALES
PARA MEDIADOS DE SEMANA MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA OESTE A OESTE
NOROESTE SOBRE AGUAS RELATIVAMENTE MAS CALIENTES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 191733
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN GONZALO...LOCALIZADO AL ESTE DE NEWFOUNDLAND.

UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION SE HA DESARROLLADO SOBRE EL EXTREMO
SUROESTE DE LA BAHIA DE CAMPECHE JUSTO AL SURESTE DE
VERACRUZ..MEXICO. ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA ES
POSIBLE DURNATE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL ESTE
NORESTE A 5 A 10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

UNA BAJA PRESION AMPLIA NO TROPICAL ESTA LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL LEJANO
ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO APROXIMADAMENTE A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS
DE LAS ISLAS CANARIAS. ESTE SISTEMA ESTA PRODUCIENDO VIENTOS CON
FUERZA DE GALERNA Y PODRIA ADQUIRIR CARATERISTICAS SUBTROPICALES
PARA MEDIADOS DE SEMANA MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA OESTE A OESTE
NOROESTE SOBRE AGUAS RELATIVAMENTE MAS CALIENTES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 191733
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN GONZALO...LOCALIZADO AL ESTE DE NEWFOUNDLAND.

UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION SE HA DESARROLLADO SOBRE EL EXTREMO
SUROESTE DE LA BAHIA DE CAMPECHE JUSTO AL SURESTE DE
VERACRUZ..MEXICO. ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA ES
POSIBLE DURNATE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL ESTE
NORESTE A 5 A 10 MPH.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

UNA BAJA PRESION AMPLIA NO TROPICAL ESTA LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL LEJANO
ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO APROXIMADAMENTE A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS
DE LAS ISLAS CANARIAS. ESTE SISTEMA ESTA PRODUCIENDO VIENTOS CON
FUERZA DE GALERNA Y PODRIA ADQUIRIR CARATERISTICAS SUBTROPICALES
PARA MEDIADOS DE SEMANA MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA OESTE A OESTE
NOROESTE SOBRE AGUAS RELATIVAMENTE MAS CALIENTES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART




000
ABNT20 KNHC 191730
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gonzalo, located several hundred miles east of Newfoundland.

A low pressure system has developed over the extreme southwestern
Bay of Campeche just to the southeast of Vera Cruz, Mexico. Some
gradual development of this disturbance is possible during the next
several days while it moves east-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a couple of hundred miles west of the Canary Islands.  This
system is producing gale-force winds, and the low could gradually
acquire subtropical characteristics during the next several days
while it moves slowly westward to west-northwestward over relatively
warm waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABNT20 KNHC 191730
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gonzalo, located several hundred miles east of Newfoundland.

A low pressure system has developed over the extreme southwestern
Bay of Campeche just to the southeast of Vera Cruz, Mexico. Some
gradual development of this disturbance is possible during the next
several days while it moves east-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a couple of hundred miles west of the Canary Islands.  This
system is producing gale-force winds, and the low could gradually
acquire subtropical characteristics during the next several days
while it moves slowly westward to west-northwestward over relatively
warm waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABNT20 KNHC 191730
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gonzalo, located several hundred miles east of Newfoundland.

A low pressure system has developed over the extreme southwestern
Bay of Campeche just to the southeast of Vera Cruz, Mexico. Some
gradual development of this disturbance is possible during the next
several days while it moves east-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a couple of hundred miles west of the Canary Islands.  This
system is producing gale-force winds, and the low could gradually
acquire subtropical characteristics during the next several days
while it moves slowly westward to west-northwestward over relatively
warm waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABNT20 KNHC 191730
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gonzalo, located several hundred miles east of Newfoundland.

A low pressure system has developed over the extreme southwestern
Bay of Campeche just to the southeast of Vera Cruz, Mexico. Some
gradual development of this disturbance is possible during the next
several days while it moves east-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a couple of hundred miles west of the Canary Islands.  This
system is producing gale-force winds, and the low could gradually
acquire subtropical characteristics during the next several days
while it moves slowly westward to west-northwestward over relatively
warm waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ACPN50 PHFO 191728
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE ANA...LOCATED 90 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LIHUE HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP5 AND WMO
HEADER WTPA35 PHFO.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$

EVANS





000
ACPN50 PHFO 191728
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE ANA...LOCATED 90 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LIHUE HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP5 AND WMO
HEADER WTPA35 PHFO.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$

EVANS






000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191713
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Landsea



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191713
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Landsea



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191713
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Landsea



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191713
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Landsea



000
WTPA35 PHFO 191658
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  24A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
700 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANA SOUTH OF KAUAI AND MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM HST...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 159.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR THE
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM HST...1700 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 159.9 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...8 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TODAY...AND OVER NIHOA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER NECKER ISLAND...FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS...AND TERN
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS AND TERN ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY...AND WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI TODAY. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATER IN THE DAY OVER OAHU AND MAUI.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF
ANA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...900 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER POWELL







000
WTPA35 PHFO 191658
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  24A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
700 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANA SOUTH OF KAUAI AND MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM HST...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 159.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR THE
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM HST...1700 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 159.9 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...8 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TODAY...AND OVER NIHOA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER NECKER ISLAND...FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS...AND TERN
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS AND TERN ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY...AND WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI TODAY. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATER IN THE DAY OVER OAHU AND MAUI.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF
ANA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...900 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER POWELL







000
WTPA35 PHFO 191658
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  24A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
700 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANA SOUTH OF KAUAI AND MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM HST...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 159.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR THE
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM HST...1700 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 159.9 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...8 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TODAY...AND OVER NIHOA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER NECKER ISLAND...FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS...AND TERN
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS AND TERN ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY...AND WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI TODAY. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATER IN THE DAY OVER OAHU AND MAUI.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF
ANA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...900 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER POWELL







000
WTPA35 PHFO 191658
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  24A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
700 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANA SOUTH OF KAUAI AND MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM HST...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 159.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR THE
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM HST...1700 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 159.9 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...8 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TODAY...AND OVER NIHOA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER NECKER ISLAND...FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS...AND TERN
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS AND TERN ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY...AND WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI TODAY. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATER IN THE DAY OVER OAHU AND MAUI.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF
ANA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...900 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER POWELL







000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191604
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N87W
1010 MB NW TO 14N93W WHERE IT ENDS. IT RESUMES AT 16N101W TO
11N113W TO 10N130W TO 08N135W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N135W TO
08N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
N OF 12N BETWEEN 96W-103W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 123W-128W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN
78W-80W...N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 87W-91W...WITHIN 120 NM S OF
TROUGH BETWEEN 121W-123W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH
BETWEEN 131W-138W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY N OF 26N W OF 120W WITH ITS MEAN AXIS ROUGHLY FROM
32N138W TO 27N140W. TO ITS E...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS N
OF 20N BETWEEN 115W-120W WITH AXIS ALONG 121W. THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER
THE SW U.S. AND ACROSS NW MEXICO. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND
ASSOCIATED DRY AND STABLE AIR IS PRESENT N OF 18N AND TO THE E
OF 127W. BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS OVER THE TROPICAL REGION OF THE
AREA E OF 138W FROM 04N TO 20N. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS JUST OF THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA NEAR
12N141W...AND IS MOVING WNW. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS NOTED
OVER THE FAR EASTERN SECTION FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 93W-105W AS
SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE FORM OF WIDESPREAD MOSTLY
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY LIES
UNDERNEATH THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGING...AND IN ADDITION THE SOUTHERN TIER OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FURTHER AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CONVECTION. THE
ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO OBSERVED IN THE COMPOSITE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) ANIMATION. THIS AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE IS FORECAST BY THE GFS TOTAL  WATER GUIDANCE AND ALSO
ITS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE GUIDANCE TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW ANALYZED NEAR 16N100W IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOUT STATIOANRY THROUGH MON...THEN SHIFT SOME TO THE E
OR ESE. SW 20 KT OR LESS MONSOON FLOW TO THE SW OF THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BY EARLY ON MON...AND EXPAND
NORTHWARD THEREAFTER WITH SEAS OF 8 OR 9 FT. THESE WINDS MAY
POSSIBLY BE HIGHER AT TIMES IN AND NEAR THE DESCRIBED CONVECTION.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ABOVE MENTIONED DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT 12 UTC TO
EXTEND FROM 32N135W SW TO W OF THE AREA AT 29N140W. NW OF THE
FRONT WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS OF 8-12 FT IN NW SWELL.
THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
REACH FROM NEAR 32N127W SW TO 26N131W AND DISSIPATING AS A
FRONTAL TROUGH TO 23N140W. THE NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BUILD SEAS TO 11-16 FT NW OF A LINE FROM 32N130W TO 24N140W AND
8 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE NW OF THE FRONT. BY EARLY TUE...THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO HAVE DISSIPATED...HOWEVER LARGE SEAS IN THE 8-12
FT ARE FORECAST NW OF A LINE FROM 32N114W TO 20N125W TO 13N140W
UNDER 20 KT OR LESS WINDS WITH HIGHER SEAS OF 11-14 FT IN NW
SWELL N OF AN AREA FROM N OF 22N AND BETWEEN 121W-135W.
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SE
TO S OF THE EQUATOR BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191604
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N87W
1010 MB NW TO 14N93W WHERE IT ENDS. IT RESUMES AT 16N101W TO
11N113W TO 10N130W TO 08N135W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N135W TO
08N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
N OF 12N BETWEEN 96W-103W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 123W-128W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN
78W-80W...N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 87W-91W...WITHIN 120 NM S OF
TROUGH BETWEEN 121W-123W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH
BETWEEN 131W-138W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY N OF 26N W OF 120W WITH ITS MEAN AXIS ROUGHLY FROM
32N138W TO 27N140W. TO ITS E...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS N
OF 20N BETWEEN 115W-120W WITH AXIS ALONG 121W. THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER
THE SW U.S. AND ACROSS NW MEXICO. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND
ASSOCIATED DRY AND STABLE AIR IS PRESENT N OF 18N AND TO THE E
OF 127W. BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS OVER THE TROPICAL REGION OF THE
AREA E OF 138W FROM 04N TO 20N. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS JUST OF THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA NEAR
12N141W...AND IS MOVING WNW. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS NOTED
OVER THE FAR EASTERN SECTION FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 93W-105W AS
SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE FORM OF WIDESPREAD MOSTLY
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY LIES
UNDERNEATH THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGING...AND IN ADDITION THE SOUTHERN TIER OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FURTHER AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CONVECTION. THE
ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO OBSERVED IN THE COMPOSITE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) ANIMATION. THIS AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE IS FORECAST BY THE GFS TOTAL  WATER GUIDANCE AND ALSO
ITS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE GUIDANCE TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW ANALYZED NEAR 16N100W IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOUT STATIOANRY THROUGH MON...THEN SHIFT SOME TO THE E
OR ESE. SW 20 KT OR LESS MONSOON FLOW TO THE SW OF THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BY EARLY ON MON...AND EXPAND
NORTHWARD THEREAFTER WITH SEAS OF 8 OR 9 FT. THESE WINDS MAY
POSSIBLY BE HIGHER AT TIMES IN AND NEAR THE DESCRIBED CONVECTION.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ABOVE MENTIONED DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT 12 UTC TO
EXTEND FROM 32N135W SW TO W OF THE AREA AT 29N140W. NW OF THE
FRONT WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS OF 8-12 FT IN NW SWELL.
THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
REACH FROM NEAR 32N127W SW TO 26N131W AND DISSIPATING AS A
FRONTAL TROUGH TO 23N140W. THE NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BUILD SEAS TO 11-16 FT NW OF A LINE FROM 32N130W TO 24N140W AND
8 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE NW OF THE FRONT. BY EARLY TUE...THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO HAVE DISSIPATED...HOWEVER LARGE SEAS IN THE 8-12
FT ARE FORECAST NW OF A LINE FROM 32N114W TO 20N125W TO 13N140W
UNDER 20 KT OR LESS WINDS WITH HIGHER SEAS OF 11-14 FT IN NW
SWELL N OF AN AREA FROM N OF 22N AND BETWEEN 121W-135W.
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SE
TO S OF THE EQUATOR BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191604
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N87W
1010 MB NW TO 14N93W WHERE IT ENDS. IT RESUMES AT 16N101W TO
11N113W TO 10N130W TO 08N135W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N135W TO
08N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
N OF 12N BETWEEN 96W-103W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 123W-128W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN
78W-80W...N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 87W-91W...WITHIN 120 NM S OF
TROUGH BETWEEN 121W-123W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH
BETWEEN 131W-138W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY N OF 26N W OF 120W WITH ITS MEAN AXIS ROUGHLY FROM
32N138W TO 27N140W. TO ITS E...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS N
OF 20N BETWEEN 115W-120W WITH AXIS ALONG 121W. THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER
THE SW U.S. AND ACROSS NW MEXICO. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND
ASSOCIATED DRY AND STABLE AIR IS PRESENT N OF 18N AND TO THE E
OF 127W. BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS OVER THE TROPICAL REGION OF THE
AREA E OF 138W FROM 04N TO 20N. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS JUST OF THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA NEAR
12N141W...AND IS MOVING WNW. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS NOTED
OVER THE FAR EASTERN SECTION FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 93W-105W AS
SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE FORM OF WIDESPREAD MOSTLY
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY LIES
UNDERNEATH THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGING...AND IN ADDITION THE SOUTHERN TIER OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FURTHER AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CONVECTION. THE
ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO OBSERVED IN THE COMPOSITE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) ANIMATION. THIS AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE IS FORECAST BY THE GFS TOTAL  WATER GUIDANCE AND ALSO
ITS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE GUIDANCE TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW ANALYZED NEAR 16N100W IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOUT STATIOANRY THROUGH MON...THEN SHIFT SOME TO THE E
OR ESE. SW 20 KT OR LESS MONSOON FLOW TO THE SW OF THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BY EARLY ON MON...AND EXPAND
NORTHWARD THEREAFTER WITH SEAS OF 8 OR 9 FT. THESE WINDS MAY
POSSIBLY BE HIGHER AT TIMES IN AND NEAR THE DESCRIBED CONVECTION.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ABOVE MENTIONED DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT 12 UTC TO
EXTEND FROM 32N135W SW TO W OF THE AREA AT 29N140W. NW OF THE
FRONT WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS OF 8-12 FT IN NW SWELL.
THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
REACH FROM NEAR 32N127W SW TO 26N131W AND DISSIPATING AS A
FRONTAL TROUGH TO 23N140W. THE NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BUILD SEAS TO 11-16 FT NW OF A LINE FROM 32N130W TO 24N140W AND
8 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE NW OF THE FRONT. BY EARLY TUE...THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO HAVE DISSIPATED...HOWEVER LARGE SEAS IN THE 8-12
FT ARE FORECAST NW OF A LINE FROM 32N114W TO 20N125W TO 13N140W
UNDER 20 KT OR LESS WINDS WITH HIGHER SEAS OF 11-14 FT IN NW
SWELL N OF AN AREA FROM N OF 22N AND BETWEEN 121W-135W.
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SE
TO S OF THE EQUATOR BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191604
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N87W
1010 MB NW TO 14N93W WHERE IT ENDS. IT RESUMES AT 16N101W TO
11N113W TO 10N130W TO 08N135W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N135W TO
08N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
N OF 12N BETWEEN 96W-103W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 123W-128W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN
78W-80W...N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 87W-91W...WITHIN 120 NM S OF
TROUGH BETWEEN 121W-123W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH
BETWEEN 131W-138W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY N OF 26N W OF 120W WITH ITS MEAN AXIS ROUGHLY FROM
32N138W TO 27N140W. TO ITS E...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS N
OF 20N BETWEEN 115W-120W WITH AXIS ALONG 121W. THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER
THE SW U.S. AND ACROSS NW MEXICO. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND
ASSOCIATED DRY AND STABLE AIR IS PRESENT N OF 18N AND TO THE E
OF 127W. BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS OVER THE TROPICAL REGION OF THE
AREA E OF 138W FROM 04N TO 20N. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS JUST OF THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA NEAR
12N141W...AND IS MOVING WNW. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS NOTED
OVER THE FAR EASTERN SECTION FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 93W-105W AS
SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE FORM OF WIDESPREAD MOSTLY
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY LIES
UNDERNEATH THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGING...AND IN ADDITION THE SOUTHERN TIER OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FURTHER AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CONVECTION. THE
ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO OBSERVED IN THE COMPOSITE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) ANIMATION. THIS AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE IS FORECAST BY THE GFS TOTAL  WATER GUIDANCE AND ALSO
ITS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE GUIDANCE TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW ANALYZED NEAR 16N100W IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOUT STATIOANRY THROUGH MON...THEN SHIFT SOME TO THE E
OR ESE. SW 20 KT OR LESS MONSOON FLOW TO THE SW OF THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BY EARLY ON MON...AND EXPAND
NORTHWARD THEREAFTER WITH SEAS OF 8 OR 9 FT. THESE WINDS MAY
POSSIBLY BE HIGHER AT TIMES IN AND NEAR THE DESCRIBED CONVECTION.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ABOVE MENTIONED DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT 12 UTC TO
EXTEND FROM 32N135W SW TO W OF THE AREA AT 29N140W. NW OF THE
FRONT WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS OF 8-12 FT IN NW SWELL.
THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
REACH FROM NEAR 32N127W SW TO 26N131W AND DISSIPATING AS A
FRONTAL TROUGH TO 23N140W. THE NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BUILD SEAS TO 11-16 FT NW OF A LINE FROM 32N130W TO 24N140W AND
8 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE NW OF THE FRONT. BY EARLY TUE...THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO HAVE DISSIPATED...HOWEVER LARGE SEAS IN THE 8-12
FT ARE FORECAST NW OF A LINE FROM 32N114W TO 20N125W TO 13N140W
UNDER 20 KT OR LESS WINDS WITH HIGHER SEAS OF 11-14 FT IN NW
SWELL N OF AN AREA FROM N OF 22N AND BETWEEN 121W-135W.
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SE
TO S OF THE EQUATOR BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
WTPA35 PHFO 191523 CCB
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA ADVISORY NUMBER  24...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
500 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANA SOUTH OF KAUAI AND CRAWLING SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 159.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR THE
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 159.7 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
ANA WILL PASS ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI THIS MORNING...65
MILES SOUTHWEST OF NIIHAU THIS MORNING...120 MILES SOUTH OF NIHOA
TONIGHT...90 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NECKER ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT...AND
NEAR FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS EARLY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TODAY...AND OVER NIHOA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER NECKER ISLAND...FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS...AND TERN
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS AND TERN ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY...AND WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI TODAY. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATER IN THE DAY OVER OAHU AND MAUI.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF
ANA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...700 AM HST AND 900 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD/BIRCHARD







000
WTPA35 PHFO 191523 CCB
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA ADVISORY NUMBER  24...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
500 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANA SOUTH OF KAUAI AND CRAWLING SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 159.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR THE
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 159.7 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
ANA WILL PASS ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI THIS MORNING...65
MILES SOUTHWEST OF NIIHAU THIS MORNING...120 MILES SOUTH OF NIHOA
TONIGHT...90 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NECKER ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT...AND
NEAR FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS EARLY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TODAY...AND OVER NIHOA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER NECKER ISLAND...FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS...AND TERN
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS AND TERN ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY...AND WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI TODAY. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATER IN THE DAY OVER OAHU AND MAUI.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF
ANA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...700 AM HST AND 900 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD/BIRCHARD






000
WTPA35 PHFO 191508
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
500 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANA SOUTH OF KAUAI AND CRAWLING SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 159.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR THE
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 159.7 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
ANA WILL PASS ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF NIIHAU THIS MORNING...120
MILES SOUTH OF NIHOA TONIGHT...90 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NECKER ISLAND
MONDAY NIGHT...AND NEAR FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS EARLY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TODAY...AND OVER NIHOA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER NECKER ISLAND...FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS...AND TERN
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS AND TERN ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY...AND WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI TODAY. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATER IN THE DAY OVER OAHU AND MAUI.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF
ANA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...700 AM HST AND 900 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD/BIRCHARD







000
WTPA35 PHFO 191508
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
500 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANA SOUTH OF KAUAI AND CRAWLING SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 159.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR THE
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 159.7 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
ANA WILL PASS ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF NIIHAU THIS MORNING...120
MILES SOUTH OF NIHOA TONIGHT...90 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NECKER ISLAND
MONDAY NIGHT...AND NEAR FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS EARLY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TODAY...AND OVER NIHOA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER NECKER ISLAND...FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS...AND TERN
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS AND TERN ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY...AND WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI TODAY. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATER IN THE DAY OVER OAHU AND MAUI.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF
ANA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...700 AM HST AND 900 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD/BIRCHARD







000
WTPA35 PHFO 191508
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
500 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANA SOUTH OF KAUAI AND CRAWLING SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 159.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR THE
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 159.7 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
ANA WILL PASS ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF NIIHAU THIS MORNING...120
MILES SOUTH OF NIHOA TONIGHT...90 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NECKER ISLAND
MONDAY NIGHT...AND NEAR FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS EARLY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TODAY...AND OVER NIHOA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER NECKER ISLAND...FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS...AND TERN
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS AND TERN ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY...AND WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI TODAY. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATER IN THE DAY OVER OAHU AND MAUI.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF
ANA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...700 AM HST AND 900 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD/BIRCHARD







000
WTPA35 PHFO 191508
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
500 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANA SOUTH OF KAUAI AND CRAWLING SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 159.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR THE
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 159.7 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
ANA WILL PASS ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF NIIHAU THIS MORNING...120
MILES SOUTH OF NIHOA TONIGHT...90 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NECKER ISLAND
MONDAY NIGHT...AND NEAR FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS EARLY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TODAY...AND OVER NIHOA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER NECKER ISLAND...FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS...AND TERN
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS AND TERN ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY...AND WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI TODAY. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATER IN THE DAY OVER OAHU AND MAUI.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF
ANA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...700 AM HST AND 900 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD/BIRCHARD







000
WTPA25 PHFO 191437
TCMCP5

HURRICANE ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
1500 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR THE
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 159.7W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  70SW 110NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 159.7W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 159.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.1N 161.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.4N 162.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.8N 164.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.9N 166.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.6N 168.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.5N 169.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 30.0N 169.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 159.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD





000
WTPA25 PHFO 191437
TCMCP5

HURRICANE ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
1500 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY...
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR THE
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 159.7W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  70SW 110NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 159.7W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 159.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.1N 161.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.4N 162.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.8N 164.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.9N 166.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.6N 168.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.5N 169.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 30.0N 169.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 159.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD




000
WTNT33 KNHC 191432
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

...GONZALO REMAINS A HURRICANE OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE FAR NORTH
ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...49.0N 47.3W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ENE OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 52 MPH...83 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 49.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.3 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 52 MPH...83 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS
FORECAST TONIGHT...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY AWAY FROM
NEWFOUNDLAND TODAY...AND THEN RACE ACROSS THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES...500 KM.  THE LARGEST EXTENT OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE AND
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...AND
SOME OIL RIGS HAVE RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS
WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF GONZALO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB...28.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS SUBSIDING THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS THREAT...PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH
TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTNT33 KNHC 191432
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

...GONZALO REMAINS A HURRICANE OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE FAR NORTH
ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...49.0N 47.3W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ENE OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 52 MPH...83 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 49.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.3 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 52 MPH...83 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS
FORECAST TONIGHT...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY AWAY FROM
NEWFOUNDLAND TODAY...AND THEN RACE ACROSS THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES...500 KM.  THE LARGEST EXTENT OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE AND
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...AND
SOME OIL RIGS HAVE RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS
WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF GONZALO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB...28.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS SUBSIDING THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS THREAT...PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH
TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



000
WTNT23 KNHC 191431
TCMAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1500 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.0N  47.3W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  45 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 100SE  50SW   0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 160SE  90SW  40NW.
34 KT.......180NE 270SE 180SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 240SE 540SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.0N  47.3W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 47.8N  50.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 52.0N  39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  90SE  50SW   0NW.
50 KT...100NE 140SE 180SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 300SE 360SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 54.5N  23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 120SE 120SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 300SE 300SW 280NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 57.0N   6.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 100SE 160SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 360SE 480SW 420NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 62.1N   2.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE 320SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 540SW 420NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 49.0N  47.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTNT23 KNHC 191431
TCMAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1500 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.0N  47.3W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  45 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 100SE  50SW   0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 160SE  90SW  40NW.
34 KT.......180NE 270SE 180SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 240SE 540SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.0N  47.3W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 47.8N  50.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 52.0N  39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  90SE  50SW   0NW.
50 KT...100NE 140SE 180SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 300SE 360SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 54.5N  23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 120SE 120SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 300SE 300SW 280NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 57.0N   6.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 100SE 160SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 360SE 480SW 420NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 62.1N   2.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE 320SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 540SW 420NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 49.0N  47.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTNT23 KNHC 191431
TCMAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1500 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.0N  47.3W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  45 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 100SE  50SW   0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 160SE  90SW  40NW.
34 KT.......180NE 270SE 180SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 240SE 540SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.0N  47.3W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 47.8N  50.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 52.0N  39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  90SE  50SW   0NW.
50 KT...100NE 140SE 180SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 300SE 360SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 54.5N  23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 120SE 120SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 300SE 300SW 280NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 57.0N   6.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 100SE 160SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 360SE 480SW 420NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 62.1N   2.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE 320SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 540SW 420NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 49.0N  47.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTNT23 KNHC 191431
TCMAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1500 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.0N  47.3W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  45 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 100SE  50SW   0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 160SE  90SW  40NW.
34 KT.......180NE 270SE 180SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 240SE 540SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.0N  47.3W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 47.8N  50.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 52.0N  39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  90SE  50SW   0NW.
50 KT...100NE 140SE 180SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 300SE 360SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 54.5N  23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 120SE 120SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 300SE 300SW 280NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 57.0N   6.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 100SE 160SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 360SE 480SW 420NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 62.1N   2.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE 320SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 540SW 420NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 49.0N  47.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPA35 PHFO 191352 CCA
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  23B...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
300 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...RAINBANDS OF HURRICANE ANA SLOWLY OVERSPREADING KAUAI...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM HST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 159.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 300 AM HST...1300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 159.7 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA
WILL PASS ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
75 MILES SOUTH OF NIIHAU SUNDAY MORNING...ABOUT 135 MILES SOUTH OF
NIHOA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NECKER ISLAND
MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ANA MAY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY NEAR NIIHAU AND WATERS TO THE SOUTH.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU TONIGHT. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NIHOA LATER SUNDAY...AND
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NECKER ISLAND...TERN
ISLAND...AND FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS ON MONDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES AND WILL PERSIST ALONG MOST ISLANDS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER
THE SMALLER ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI TODAY. RAINFALL WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER MAUI COUNTY AND OAHU TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD/BIRCHARD






000
WTPA35 PHFO 191352 CCA
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  23B...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
300 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...RAINBANDS OF HURRICANE ANA SLOWLY OVERSPREADING KAUAI...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM HST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 159.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 300 AM HST...1300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 159.7 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA
WILL PASS ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
75 MILES SOUTH OF NIIHAU SUNDAY MORNING...ABOUT 135 MILES SOUTH OF
NIHOA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NECKER ISLAND
MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ANA MAY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY NEAR NIIHAU AND WATERS TO THE SOUTH.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU TONIGHT. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NIHOA LATER SUNDAY...AND
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NECKER ISLAND...TERN
ISLAND...AND FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS ON MONDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES AND WILL PERSIST ALONG MOST ISLANDS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER
THE SMALLER ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI TODAY. RAINFALL WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER MAUI COUNTY AND OAHU TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD/BIRCHARD






000
WTPA35 PHFO 191352 CCA
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  23B...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
300 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...RAINBANDS OF HURRICANE ANA SLOWLY OVERSPREADING KAUAI...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM HST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 159.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 300 AM HST...1300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 159.7 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA
WILL PASS ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
75 MILES SOUTH OF NIIHAU SUNDAY MORNING...ABOUT 135 MILES SOUTH OF
NIHOA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NECKER ISLAND
MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ANA MAY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY NEAR NIIHAU AND WATERS TO THE SOUTH.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU TONIGHT. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NIHOA LATER SUNDAY...AND
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NECKER ISLAND...TERN
ISLAND...AND FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS ON MONDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES AND WILL PERSIST ALONG MOST ISLANDS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER
THE SMALLER ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI TODAY. RAINFALL WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER MAUI COUNTY AND OAHU TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD/BIRCHARD






000
WTPA35 PHFO 191352 CCA
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  23B...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
300 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...RAINBANDS OF HURRICANE ANA SLOWLY OVERSPREADING KAUAI...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM HST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 159.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 300 AM HST...1300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 159.7 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA
WILL PASS ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
75 MILES SOUTH OF NIIHAU SUNDAY MORNING...ABOUT 135 MILES SOUTH OF
NIHOA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NECKER ISLAND
MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ANA MAY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY NEAR NIIHAU AND WATERS TO THE SOUTH.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU TONIGHT. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NIHOA LATER SUNDAY...AND
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NECKER ISLAND...TERN
ISLAND...AND FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS ON MONDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES AND WILL PERSIST ALONG MOST ISLANDS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER
THE SMALLER ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI TODAY. RAINFALL WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER MAUI COUNTY AND OAHU TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD/BIRCHARD






000
WTPA35 PHFO 191309
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  23B
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
300 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...RAINBANDS OF HURRICANE ANA SLOWLY OVERSPREADING KAUAI...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM HST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.65N 159.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 300 AM HST...1300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 159.7 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA
WILL PASS ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
75 MILES SOUTH OF NIIHAU SUNDAY MORNING...ABOUT 135 MILES SOUTH OF
NIHOA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NECKER ISLAND
MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ANA MAY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY NEAR NIIHAU AND WATERS TO THE SOUTH.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU TONIGHT. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NIHOA LATER SUNDAY...AND
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NECKER ISLAND...TERN
ISLAND...AND FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS ON MONDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES AND WILL PERSIST ALONG MOST ISLANDS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER
THE SMALLER ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI TODAY. RAINFALL WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER MAUI COUNTY AND OAHU TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD/BIRCHARD







000
WTPA35 PHFO 191309
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  23B
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
300 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...RAINBANDS OF HURRICANE ANA SLOWLY OVERSPREADING KAUAI...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM HST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.65N 159.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 300 AM HST...1300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 159.7 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA
WILL PASS ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
75 MILES SOUTH OF NIIHAU SUNDAY MORNING...ABOUT 135 MILES SOUTH OF
NIHOA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NECKER ISLAND
MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ANA MAY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY NEAR NIIHAU AND WATERS TO THE SOUTH.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU TONIGHT. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NIHOA LATER SUNDAY...AND
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NECKER ISLAND...TERN
ISLAND...AND FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS ON MONDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES AND WILL PERSIST ALONG MOST ISLANDS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER
THE SMALLER ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI TODAY. RAINFALL WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER MAUI COUNTY AND OAHU TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD/BIRCHARD






000
AXNT20 KNHC 191146
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 47.6N 50.1W AT 19/1200 UTC OR
ABOUT 104 NM E OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NE AT 45 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS N OF 46N BETWEEN 48W-56W. PLEASE SEE LATEST
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 40W
FROM 6N-16N MOVING W 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND REMAINS BENEATH THE WESTERN
PORTION OF AN UPPER RIDGE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 11N34W TO 14N39W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 38W-42W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 16N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 14N18W 9N19W 6N23W 6N31W TO
E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N36W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N42W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE
FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 7N11W ALONG 4N23W TO 00N37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC TO JUST
S OF THE N GULF COAST SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
ACROSS FLORIDA JUST S OF CEDAR KEY ALONG 28N87W TO OVER TEXAS
NEAR GALVESTON. THERE IS STILL NO SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT AS THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR
ALOFT COVERS THE GULF E OF 90W WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
NW GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE W
GULF NEAR TUXPAN TO THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM NEAR VERACRUZ TO
JUST S OF MATAMORES GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF LINE FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS ALONG 22N94W TO
THE YUCATAN NEAR 20N91W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER
CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME
DIFFUSE FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST LATE
TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF TUE. AN
AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF EARLY
THIS WEEK AND DRIFT E.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN TO 80W. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS
THE YUCATAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 19N-22N W OF 78W TO THE YUCATAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF
19N W OF 84W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH A
WEAK UPPER LOW JUST N OF THE MONA PASSAGE TO OVER THE ABC
ISLANDS. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-75W AND OVER THE S
CARIBBEAN S OF THE ABC ISLANDS TO OVER VENEZUELA BETWEEN 66W-
69W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W ALONG
12N80W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 11N84W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N W OF 70W TO INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA AND TO THE COAST FROM PANAMA TO NICARAGUA. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE ISLAND THIS MORNING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING OFFSHORE. THE
WEAK UPPER LOW N OF THE MONA PASSAGE IS GENERATING THE ABOVE
ACTIVITY. THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TODAY THEN WEAKEN GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN AND HISPANIOLA W FLOW
ALOFT STARTING EARLY MON. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH
EARLY TUE AND COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD PRODUCE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MON. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT STARTING TUE AS THE LINGERING
MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTHWARD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE GONZALO HAS MOVING PAST NEWFOUNDLAND. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURE ABOVE. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 63W THEN
NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES THROUGH A WEAK UPPER LOW JUST N OF THE
MONA PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N76W TO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR FLAGLER
BEACH TO JUST N OF CEDAR KEY CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 70W-
74W AND INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 28N67W TO 24N74W AND SECOND SURFACE TROUGH TO THE S
EXTENDS FROM 25N66W TO 21N74W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED
NEAR 25N52W SUPPORTING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N49W
ALONG 25N52W THROUGH A WEAK 1011 MB LOW NEAR 23N56W TO 20N59W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
75 NM OF LINE FROM 29N48W 29N53W TO 26N56W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE LOW. A NARROW UPPER
RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE BROAD W ATLC UPPER TROUGH AND THE BROAD
CENTRAL ATLC UPPER LOW GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 26N62W TO 33N59W. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC N OF 20N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM A 1005 MB LOW NEAR 32N19W
ALONG 25N23W TO 23N30W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 14W-19W INCLUDING THE CANARY
ISLANDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 30N W OF THE FRONT TO 24W. W ATLC COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY MON AND
WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT LIFTS N OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 191146
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 47.6N 50.1W AT 19/1200 UTC OR
ABOUT 104 NM E OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NE AT 45 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS N OF 46N BETWEEN 48W-56W. PLEASE SEE LATEST
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 40W
FROM 6N-16N MOVING W 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND REMAINS BENEATH THE WESTERN
PORTION OF AN UPPER RIDGE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 11N34W TO 14N39W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 38W-42W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 16N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 14N18W 9N19W 6N23W 6N31W TO
E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N36W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N42W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE
FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 7N11W ALONG 4N23W TO 00N37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC TO JUST
S OF THE N GULF COAST SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
ACROSS FLORIDA JUST S OF CEDAR KEY ALONG 28N87W TO OVER TEXAS
NEAR GALVESTON. THERE IS STILL NO SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT AS THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR
ALOFT COVERS THE GULF E OF 90W WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
NW GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE W
GULF NEAR TUXPAN TO THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM NEAR VERACRUZ TO
JUST S OF MATAMORES GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF LINE FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS ALONG 22N94W TO
THE YUCATAN NEAR 20N91W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER
CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME
DIFFUSE FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST LATE
TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF TUE. AN
AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF EARLY
THIS WEEK AND DRIFT E.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN TO 80W. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS
THE YUCATAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 19N-22N W OF 78W TO THE YUCATAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF
19N W OF 84W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH A
WEAK UPPER LOW JUST N OF THE MONA PASSAGE TO OVER THE ABC
ISLANDS. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-75W AND OVER THE S
CARIBBEAN S OF THE ABC ISLANDS TO OVER VENEZUELA BETWEEN 66W-
69W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W ALONG
12N80W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 11N84W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N W OF 70W TO INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA AND TO THE COAST FROM PANAMA TO NICARAGUA. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE ISLAND THIS MORNING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING OFFSHORE. THE
WEAK UPPER LOW N OF THE MONA PASSAGE IS GENERATING THE ABOVE
ACTIVITY. THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TODAY THEN WEAKEN GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN AND HISPANIOLA W FLOW
ALOFT STARTING EARLY MON. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH
EARLY TUE AND COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD PRODUCE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MON. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT STARTING TUE AS THE LINGERING
MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTHWARD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE GONZALO HAS MOVING PAST NEWFOUNDLAND. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURE ABOVE. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 63W THEN
NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES THROUGH A WEAK UPPER LOW JUST N OF THE
MONA PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N76W TO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR FLAGLER
BEACH TO JUST N OF CEDAR KEY CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 70W-
74W AND INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 28N67W TO 24N74W AND SECOND SURFACE TROUGH TO THE S
EXTENDS FROM 25N66W TO 21N74W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED
NEAR 25N52W SUPPORTING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N49W
ALONG 25N52W THROUGH A WEAK 1011 MB LOW NEAR 23N56W TO 20N59W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
75 NM OF LINE FROM 29N48W 29N53W TO 26N56W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE LOW. A NARROW UPPER
RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE BROAD W ATLC UPPER TROUGH AND THE BROAD
CENTRAL ATLC UPPER LOW GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 26N62W TO 33N59W. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC N OF 20N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM A 1005 MB LOW NEAR 32N19W
ALONG 25N23W TO 23N30W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 14W-19W INCLUDING THE CANARY
ISLANDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 30N W OF THE FRONT TO 24W. W ATLC COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY MON AND
WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT LIFTS N OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 191145
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT DOMINGO 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN GONZALO...LOCALIZADO AL ESTE DE NEWFOUNDLAND.

SE ESPERA QUE UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION SE FORME SOBRE LA BAHIA DE
CAMPECHE O AL SUR DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS.
ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA ES POSIBLE LUEGO MIENTRAS
SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

SE ESPERA QUE SE FORME UNA BAJA PRESION AMPLIA SIN CARACTERISITICAS
TROPICALES SOBRE EL LEJANO ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO APROXIMADAMENTE
ENTRE LAS ISLAS AZORES Y LAS ISLAS CANARIAS. ESTE SISTEMA PODRIA
ADQUIRIR CARATERISTICAS SUBTROPICALES PARA MEDIADOS DE SEMANA
MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA OESTE A OESTE NOROESTE SOBRE AGUAS
RELATIVAMENTE MAS CALIENTES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 191145
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT DOMINGO 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN GONZALO...LOCALIZADO AL ESTE DE NEWFOUNDLAND.

SE ESPERA QUE UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION SE FORME SOBRE LA BAHIA DE
CAMPECHE O AL SUR DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS.
ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA ES POSIBLE LUEGO MIENTRAS
SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

SE ESPERA QUE SE FORME UNA BAJA PRESION AMPLIA SIN CARACTERISITICAS
TROPICALES SOBRE EL LEJANO ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO APROXIMADAMENTE
ENTRE LAS ISLAS AZORES Y LAS ISLAS CANARIAS. ESTE SISTEMA PODRIA
ADQUIRIR CARATERISTICAS SUBTROPICALES PARA MEDIADOS DE SEMANA
MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA OESTE A OESTE NOROESTE SOBRE AGUAS
RELATIVAMENTE MAS CALIENTES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART





000
ACPN50 PHFO 191145
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU...HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE ANA...LOCATED ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH
OF LIHUE...HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPA35
PHFO.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

$$

HOUSTON





000
ACPN50 PHFO 191145
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU...HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE ANA...LOCATED ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH
OF LIHUE...HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPA35
PHFO.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

$$

HOUSTON






000
ABNT20 KNHC 191142
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gonzalo, located east of Newfoundland.

A low pressure system is expected to form over the Bay of Campeche
or the southern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two.  Some
gradual development of this system is possible after that time while
it moves slowly east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

A large non-tropical low is developing over the far eastern
Atlantic Ocean about midway between the Azores Islands and the
Canary Islands.  This system could possibly acquire subtropical
characteristics by the middle of the week while it moves westward
to west-northwestward over relatively warm waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 191142
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gonzalo, located east of Newfoundland.

A low pressure system is expected to form over the Bay of Campeche
or the southern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two.  Some
gradual development of this system is possible after that time while
it moves slowly east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

A large non-tropical low is developing over the far eastern
Atlantic Ocean about midway between the Azores Islands and the
Canary Islands.  This system could possibly acquire subtropical
characteristics by the middle of the week while it moves westward
to west-northwestward over relatively warm waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
WTNT33 KNHC 191140
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  28A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
800 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

...GONZALO STILL A HURRICANE OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.6N 50.1W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM E OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 52 MPH...83 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 47.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.1 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 52 MPH...83 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS
FORECAST TONIGHT...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. GONZALO WILL MOVE QUICKLY AWAY FROM NEWFOUNDLAND THIS
MORNING AND THEN RACE ACROSS THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES...500 KM. THE LARGEST EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS IS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. DURING THE
PAST HOUR...CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF
41 MPH...67 KM/H...AND A GUST OF 55 MPH...89 KM/H.  ST. JOHNS
NEWFOUNDLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 45 MPH...72 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB...28.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING.

SURF...COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS THREAT...
PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH
TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTNT33 KNHC 191140
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  28A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
800 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

...GONZALO STILL A HURRICANE OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.6N 50.1W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM E OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 52 MPH...83 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 47.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.1 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 52 MPH...83 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS
FORECAST TONIGHT...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. GONZALO WILL MOVE QUICKLY AWAY FROM NEWFOUNDLAND THIS
MORNING AND THEN RACE ACROSS THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES...500 KM. THE LARGEST EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS IS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. DURING THE
PAST HOUR...CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF
41 MPH...67 KM/H...AND A GUST OF 55 MPH...89 KM/H.  ST. JOHNS
NEWFOUNDLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 45 MPH...72 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB...28.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING.

SURF...COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS THREAT...
PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH
TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTNT33 KNHC 191140
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  28A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
800 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

...GONZALO STILL A HURRICANE OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.6N 50.1W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM E OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 52 MPH...83 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 47.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.1 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 52 MPH...83 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS
FORECAST TONIGHT...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. GONZALO WILL MOVE QUICKLY AWAY FROM NEWFOUNDLAND THIS
MORNING AND THEN RACE ACROSS THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES...500 KM. THE LARGEST EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS IS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. DURING THE
PAST HOUR...CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF
41 MPH...67 KM/H...AND A GUST OF 55 MPH...89 KM/H.  ST. JOHNS
NEWFOUNDLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 45 MPH...72 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB...28.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING.

SURF...COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS THREAT...
PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH
TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTNT33 KNHC 191140
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  28A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
800 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

...GONZALO STILL A HURRICANE OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.6N 50.1W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM E OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 52 MPH...83 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 47.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.1 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 52 MPH...83 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS
FORECAST TONIGHT...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. GONZALO WILL MOVE QUICKLY AWAY FROM NEWFOUNDLAND THIS
MORNING AND THEN RACE ACROSS THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES...500 KM. THE LARGEST EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS IS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. DURING THE
PAST HOUR...CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF
41 MPH...67 KM/H...AND A GUST OF 55 MPH...89 KM/H.  ST. JOHNS
NEWFOUNDLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 45 MPH...72 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB...28.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING.

SURF...COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS THREAT...
PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH
TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191118
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Landsea


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191118
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Landsea



000
WTPA35 PHFO 191105
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  23A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
100 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...RAINBANDS OF HURRICANE ANA APPROACHING KAUAI...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM HST...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 159.6W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM HST...1100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 159.5 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA
WILL PASS ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...75 MILES SOUTH OF NIIHAU SUNDAY MORNING...ABOUT 135 MILES
SOUTH OF NIHOA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NECKER
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ANA MAY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY NEAR NIIHAU AND WATERS TO THE SOUTH.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU TONIGHT. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NIHOA LATER SUNDAY...AND
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NECKER ISLAND...TERN
ISLAND...AND FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS ON MONDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES AND WILL PERSIST ALONG MOST ISLANDS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE
OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ON SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...300 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD/BIRCHARD







000
WTPA35 PHFO 191105
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  23A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
100 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

...RAINBANDS OF HURRICANE ANA APPROACHING KAUAI...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM HST...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 159.6W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM HST...1100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 159.5 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA
WILL PASS ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...75 MILES SOUTH OF NIIHAU SUNDAY MORNING...ABOUT 135 MILES
SOUTH OF NIHOA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NECKER
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ANA MAY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY NEAR NIIHAU AND WATERS TO THE SOUTH.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU TONIGHT. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NIHOA LATER SUNDAY...AND
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NECKER ISLAND...TERN
ISLAND...AND FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS ON MONDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES AND WILL PERSIST ALONG MOST ISLANDS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE
OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ON SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...300 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD/BIRCHARD






000
ACCA62 TJSJ 190942 CCA
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT DOMINGO 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN GONZALO...LOCALIZADO AL SUR-SUROESTE DE CAPE
RACE...NEWFOUNDLAND.

SE ESPERA QUE UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION SE FORME SOBRE LA BAHIA DE
CAMPECHE O AL SUR DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO PARA MEDIADOS DE SEMANA. ALGUN
DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA ES POSIBLE DESPUES DE ESE TIEMPO
MIENTRAS SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

SE ESPERA QUE SE FORME UNA BAJA PRESION GRANDE SIN CARACTERISITICAS
TROPICALES SOBRE EL LEJANO ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO APROXIMADAMENTE
ENTRE LAS ISLAS AZORES Y LAS ISLAS CANARIAS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
DIAS. ESTE SISTEMA PODRIA ADQUIRIR CARATERISTICAS SUBTROPICALES PARA
MEDIADOS DE SEMANA MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA OESTE A OESTE NOROESTE
SOBRE AGUAS RELATIVAMENTE MAS CALIENTES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 190942 CCA
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT DOMINGO 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN GONZALO...LOCALIZADO AL SUR-SUROESTE DE CAPE
RACE...NEWFOUNDLAND.

SE ESPERA QUE UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION SE FORME SOBRE LA BAHIA DE
CAMPECHE O AL SUR DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO PARA MEDIADOS DE SEMANA. ALGUN
DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA ES POSIBLE DESPUES DE ESE TIEMPO
MIENTRAS SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

SE ESPERA QUE SE FORME UNA BAJA PRESION GRANDE SIN CARACTERISITICAS
TROPICALES SOBRE EL LEJANO ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO APROXIMADAMENTE
ENTRE LAS ISLAS AZORES Y LAS ISLAS CANARIAS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
DIAS. ESTE SISTEMA PODRIA ADQUIRIR CARATERISTICAS SUBTROPICALES PARA
MEDIADOS DE SEMANA MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA OESTE A OESTE NOROESTE
SOBRE AGUAS RELATIVAMENTE MAS CALIENTES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 190942 CCA
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT DOMINGO 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN GONZALO...LOCALIZADO AL SUR-SUROESTE DE CAPE
RACE...NEWFOUNDLAND.

SE ESPERA QUE UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION SE FORME SOBRE LA BAHIA DE
CAMPECHE O AL SUR DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO PARA MEDIADOS DE SEMANA. ALGUN
DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA ES POSIBLE DESPUES DE ESE TIEMPO
MIENTRAS SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

SE ESPERA QUE SE FORME UNA BAJA PRESION GRANDE SIN CARACTERISITICAS
TROPICALES SOBRE EL LEJANO ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO APROXIMADAMENTE
ENTRE LAS ISLAS AZORES Y LAS ISLAS CANARIAS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
DIAS. ESTE SISTEMA PODRIA ADQUIRIR CARATERISTICAS SUBTROPICALES PARA
MEDIADOS DE SEMANA MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA OESTE A OESTE NOROESTE
SOBRE AGUAS RELATIVAMENTE MAS CALIENTES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 190942 CCA
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT DOMINGO 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN GONZALO...LOCALIZADO AL SUR-SUROESTE DE CAPE
RACE...NEWFOUNDLAND.

SE ESPERA QUE UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION SE FORME SOBRE LA BAHIA DE
CAMPECHE O AL SUR DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO PARA MEDIADOS DE SEMANA. ALGUN
DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA ES POSIBLE DESPUES DE ESE TIEMPO
MIENTRAS SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

SE ESPERA QUE SE FORME UNA BAJA PRESION GRANDE SIN CARACTERISITICAS
TROPICALES SOBRE EL LEJANO ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO APROXIMADAMENTE
ENTRE LAS ISLAS AZORES Y LAS ISLAS CANARIAS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
DIAS. ESTE SISTEMA PODRIA ADQUIRIR CARATERISTICAS SUBTROPICALES PARA
MEDIADOS DE SEMANA MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA OESTE A OESTE NOROESTE
SOBRE AGUAS RELATIVAMENTE MAS CALIENTES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN





000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190911
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 8N90W...RESUMES FROM 15N103W TO
11N125W TO 11N127W TO 8N137W. ITCZ FROM 8N137W TO 8N140W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 12N
BETWEEN 98W-104W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS FROM 120W-125W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N133W TO A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 12N141W. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE E OF THE TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 32N124W TO 19N120W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 11N W OF 110W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 17N109W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SW
OF THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST OF
MEXICO FROM WHAT WAS ONCE TRUDY FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 100W-103W.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COAST OF OAXACA AND
GUERRERO STATES TONIGHT AND PRODUCE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTEND
FROM 30N136W TO 28N140W. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 8-11 FT IN
NW SWELL IN FAR NW PORTION BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
BUILD TO 9 TO 16 FT ON MON.

$$
DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190911
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 8N90W...RESUMES FROM 15N103W TO
11N125W TO 11N127W TO 8N137W. ITCZ FROM 8N137W TO 8N140W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 12N
BETWEEN 98W-104W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS FROM 120W-125W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N133W TO A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 12N141W. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE E OF THE TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 32N124W TO 19N120W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 11N W OF 110W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 17N109W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SW
OF THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST OF
MEXICO FROM WHAT WAS ONCE TRUDY FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 100W-103W.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COAST OF OAXACA AND
GUERRERO STATES TONIGHT AND PRODUCE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTEND
FROM 30N136W TO 28N140W. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 8-11 FT IN
NW SWELL IN FAR NW PORTION BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
BUILD TO 9 TO 16 FT ON MON.

$$
DGS


000
WTPA35 PHFO 190851
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
1100 PM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

...ANA CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...HURRICANE
WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 159.5W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 159.5 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL
PASS ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...75
MILES SOUTH OF NIIHAU SUNDAY MORNING...ABOUT 135 MILES SOUTH OF
NIHOA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NECKER ISLAND
MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ANA MAY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY NEAR NIIHAU AND WATERS TO THE SOUTH.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU TONIGHT. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NIHOA LATER SUNDAY...AND
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NECKER ISLAND...TERN
ISLAND...AND FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS ON MONDAY.


SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES AND WILL PERSIST ALONG MOST ISLANDS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL
MOVE OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ON SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...100 AM HST AND 300 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD/BIRCHARD







000
WTPA25 PHFO 190833
TCMCP5

HURRICANE ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
0900 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM NIHOA TO
  FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 159.5W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 45NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  70SW 110NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 159.5W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 159.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.7N 160.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 45NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.0N 161.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.5N 163.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 22.3N 165.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.0N 167.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 26.0N 169.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 29.5N 169.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 159.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD





000
WTPA25 PHFO 190833
TCMCP5

HURRICANE ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
0900 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM NIHOA TO
  FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 159.5W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 45NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  70SW 110NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 159.5W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 159.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.7N 160.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 45NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.0N 161.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.5N 163.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 22.3N 165.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.0N 167.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 26.0N 169.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 29.5N 169.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 159.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD




000
WTNT23 KNHC 190830
TCMAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
0900 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.3N  52.9W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  40 DEGREES AT  45 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 100SE  50SW   0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 160SE  90SW  40NW.
34 KT.......180NE 270SE 180SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 420SE 420SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.3N  52.9W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.5N  54.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 50.1N  44.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 150SE  90SW  30NW.
34 KT...150NE 270SE 200SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 53.4N  31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 180SE 150SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 300SE 270SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 56.2N  15.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 320SE 360SW 360NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 58.5N   2.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...190NE 420SE 600SW 480NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 46.3N  52.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTNT23 KNHC 190830
TCMAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
0900 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.3N  52.9W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  40 DEGREES AT  45 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 100SE  50SW   0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 160SE  90SW  40NW.
34 KT.......180NE 270SE 180SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 420SE 420SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.3N  52.9W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.5N  54.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 50.1N  44.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 150SE  90SW  30NW.
34 KT...150NE 270SE 200SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 53.4N  31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 180SE 150SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 300SE 270SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 56.2N  15.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 320SE 360SW 360NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 58.5N   2.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...190NE 420SE 600SW 480NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 46.3N  52.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN





000
WTNT33 KNHC 190830
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
500 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

...GONZALO RACING PAST CAPE RACE...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...46.3N 52.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 52 MPH...83 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.9 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 52 MPH...83 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS
FORECAST TONIGHT...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. GONZALO WILL MOVE QUICKLY AWAY FROM NEWFOUNDLAND THIS
MORNING AND THEN RACE ACROSS THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER
TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES...500 KM. THE LARGEST EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS IS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 38 MPH...61
KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 51 MPH...82 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB...28.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

SURF...COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS THREAT...
PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH
TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTNT33 KNHC 190830
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
500 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

...GONZALO RACING PAST CAPE RACE...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...46.3N 52.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 52 MPH...83 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.9 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 52 MPH...83 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS
FORECAST TONIGHT...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. GONZALO WILL MOVE QUICKLY AWAY FROM NEWFOUNDLAND THIS
MORNING AND THEN RACE ACROSS THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER
TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES...500 KM. THE LARGEST EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS IS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 38 MPH...61
KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 51 MPH...82 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB...28.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

SURF...COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS THREAT...
PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH
TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
WTPA35 PHFO 190703
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  22B
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
900 PM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

...HURRICANE ANA MARCHING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND WILL PASS CLOSE
TO KAUAI COUNTY OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM HST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 159.3W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE MAINLY
NEAR THE ISLAND OF NIIHAU DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 900 PM HST...0700 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 159.3 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/H. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF KAUAI TONIGHT...95 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NIIHAU SUNDAY MORNING...
AND ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF NIHOA SUNDAY EVENING. A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BE WELL WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
ANA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY NEAR NIIHAU AND WATERS TO THE SOUTH.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU TONIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE SWELLS
COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES AND WILL PERSIST ALONG MOST ISLANDS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL
MOVE OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ON SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD/R BALLARD







000
WTPA35 PHFO 190703
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  22B
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
900 PM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

...HURRICANE ANA MARCHING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND WILL PASS CLOSE
TO KAUAI COUNTY OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM HST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 159.3W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE MAINLY
NEAR THE ISLAND OF NIIHAU DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 900 PM HST...0700 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 159.3 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/H. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF KAUAI TONIGHT...95 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NIIHAU SUNDAY MORNING...
AND ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF NIHOA SUNDAY EVENING. A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BE WELL WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
ANA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY NEAR NIIHAU AND WATERS TO THE SOUTH.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU TONIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE SWELLS
COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES AND WILL PERSIST ALONG MOST ISLANDS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL
MOVE OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ON SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD/R BALLARD






000
ACCA62 TJSJ 190600 CCA
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT DOMINGO 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN GONZALO...LOCALIZADO AL SUR-SUROESTE DE CAPE
RACE...NEWFOUNDLAND.

SE ESPERA QUE UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION SE FORME SOBRE LA BAHIA DE
CAMPECHE O AL SUR DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO PARA MEDIADOS DE SEMANA. ALGUN
DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA ES POSIBLE DESPUES DE ESE TIEMPO
MIENTRAS SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

SE ESPERA QUE SE FORME UNA BAJA PRESION GRANDE SIN CARACTERISITICAS
TROPICALES SOBRE EL LEJANO ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO APROXIMADAMENTE
ENTRE LAS ISLAS AZORES Y LAS ISLAS CANARIAS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
DIAS. ESTE SISTEMA PODRIA ADQUIRIR CARATERISTICAS SUBTROPICALES PARA
MEDIADOS DE SEMANA MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA OESTE A OESTE NOROESTE
SOBRE AGUAS RELATIVAMENTE MAS CALIENTES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 190600 CCA
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT DOMINGO 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN GONZALO...LOCALIZADO AL SUR-SUROESTE DE CAPE
RACE...NEWFOUNDLAND.

SE ESPERA QUE UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION SE FORME SOBRE LA BAHIA DE
CAMPECHE O AL SUR DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO PARA MEDIADOS DE SEMANA. ALGUN
DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA ES POSIBLE DESPUES DE ESE TIEMPO
MIENTRAS SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

SE ESPERA QUE SE FORME UNA BAJA PRESION GRANDE SIN CARACTERISITICAS
TROPICALES SOBRE EL LEJANO ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO APROXIMADAMENTE
ENTRE LAS ISLAS AZORES Y LAS ISLAS CANARIAS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
DIAS. ESTE SISTEMA PODRIA ADQUIRIR CARATERISTICAS SUBTROPICALES PARA
MEDIADOS DE SEMANA MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA OESTE A OESTE NOROESTE
SOBRE AGUAS RELATIVAMENTE MAS CALIENTES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 190600 CCA
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT DOMINGO 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN GONZALO...LOCALIZADO AL SUR-SUROESTE DE CAPE
RACE...NEWFOUNDLAND.

SE ESPERA QUE UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION SE FORME SOBRE LA BAHIA DE
CAMPECHE O AL SUR DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO PARA MEDIADOS DE SEMANA. ALGUN
DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA ES POSIBLE DESPUES DE ESE TIEMPO
MIENTRAS SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

SE ESPERA QUE SE FORME UNA BAJA PRESION GRANDE SIN CARACTERISITICAS
TROPICALES SOBRE EL LEJANO ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO APROXIMADAMENTE
ENTRE LAS ISLAS AZORES Y LAS ISLAS CANARIAS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
DIAS. ESTE SISTEMA PODRIA ADQUIRIR CARATERISTICAS SUBTROPICALES PARA
MEDIADOS DE SEMANA MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA OESTE A OESTE NOROESTE
SOBRE AGUAS RELATIVAMENTE MAS CALIENTES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 190600 CCA
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT DOMINGO 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN GONZALO...LOCALIZADO AL SUR-SUROESTE DE CAPE
RACE...NEWFOUNDLAND.

SE ESPERA QUE UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION SE FORME SOBRE LA BAHIA DE
CAMPECHE O AL SUR DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO PARA MEDIADOS DE SEMANA. ALGUN
DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA ES POSIBLE DESPUES DE ESE TIEMPO
MIENTRAS SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

SE ESPERA QUE SE FORME UNA BAJA PRESION GRANDE SIN CARACTERISITICAS
TROPICALES SOBRE EL LEJANO ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO APROXIMADAMENTE
ENTRE LAS ISLAS AZORES Y LAS ISLAS CANARIAS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
DIAS. ESTE SISTEMA PODRIA ADQUIRIR CARATERISTICAS SUBTROPICALES PARA
MEDIADOS DE SEMANA MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA OESTE A OESTE NOROESTE
SOBRE AGUAS RELATIVAMENTE MAS CALIENTES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 190558
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT DOMINGO 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN GONZALO...LOCALIZADO AL SUR-SUROESTE DE CAPE
RACE...NEWFOUNDLAND.

SE ESPERA QUE UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION SE FORME SOBRE LA BAHIA DE
CAMPECHE O AL SUR DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO PARA MEDIADOS DE LA SEMANA
ESTA SEMANA. ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA ES POSIBLE
DESPUES DE ESE TIEMPO MIENTRAS SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL ESTE
NORESTE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

SE ESPERA QUE SE FORME UNA BAJA PRESION GRANDE SIN CARACTERISITICAS
TROPICALES SOBRE EL LEJANO ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO APROXIMADAMENTE
ENTRE LAS ISLAS AZORES Y LAS ISLAS CANARIAS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
DIAS. ESTE SISTEMA PODRIA ADQUIRIR CARATERISTICAS SUBTROPICALES PARA
MEDIADOS DE SEMANA MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A OESTE NOROESTE
SOBRE AGUAS RELATIVAMENTE MAS CALIENTES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN




000
WTPA35 PHFO 190552 CCA
TCPCP5

BULLETIN...CORRECTED
HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  22A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
700 PM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

CORRECTED PRESENT MOVEMENT

...ANA CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND WILL PASS DANGEROUSLY CLOSE
TO KAUAI COUNTY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM HST...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 159.1W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE MAINLY
NEAR THE ISLAND OF NIIHAU DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM HST...0500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 159.1 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/H. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTH OF NIIHAU
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...115 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI TONIGHT...
AND 120 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OAHU THIS EVENING. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
WELL WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
ANA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY NEAR NIIHAU AND WATERS TO THE SOUTH.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU TONIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE SWELLS
COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES AND WILL PERSIST ALONG MOST ISLANDS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL
MOVE OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ON SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...900 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD






000
WTPA35 PHFO 190552 CCA
TCPCP5

BULLETIN...CORRECTED
HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  22A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
700 PM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

CORRECTED PRESENT MOVEMENT

...ANA CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND WILL PASS DANGEROUSLY CLOSE
TO KAUAI COUNTY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM HST...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 159.1W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE MAINLY
NEAR THE ISLAND OF NIIHAU DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM HST...0500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 159.1 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/H. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTH OF NIIHAU
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...115 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI TONIGHT...
AND 120 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OAHU THIS EVENING. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
WELL WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
ANA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY NEAR NIIHAU AND WATERS TO THE SOUTH.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU TONIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE SWELLS
COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES AND WILL PERSIST ALONG MOST ISLANDS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL
MOVE OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ON SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...900 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD





000
AXNT20 KNHC 190546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 44.2N 55.0W AT 19/0300 UTC OR
ABOUT 170 NM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NE AT 41 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 41N-47N BETWEEN 54W-60W. PLEASE SEE LATEST
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 16N38W
TO 5N40W MOVING W 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND REMAINS BENEATH THE WESTERN
PORTION OF AN UPPER RIDGE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 35W-40W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N24W TO 8N30W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N42W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-
8N BETWEEN 27W-31W AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 43W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC TO ALONG
THE N GULF COAST SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE
GULF WATERS AT 19/0300 UTC JUST N OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO
INLAND OVER LOUISIANA NEAR NEW ORLEANS. THERE IS NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS MOST OF GULF E OF 90W. AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE W GULF ALONG 96W TO
OVER NE TEXAS GIVING THE GULF WATERS NW FLOW ALOFT. CONVERGENCE
OF THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N W
OF 90W AND FROM 22N-27N W OF 92W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH
OVER MISSOURI...BRIDGING THE FRONT...THEN INTO THE GULF NEAR SW
LOUISIANA TO 25N85W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND BECOME
DIFFUSE FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST SUN
NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW
GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W
CARIBBEAN TO 80W AND IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-22N W OF 77W
TO OVER THE YUCATAN. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS
THROUGH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE MONA PASSAGE/W PUERTO RICO TO
OVER THE ABC ISLANDS. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 70W-76W. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W ALONG 10N80W TO
ACROSS PANAMA/COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF LINE FROM 15N83W TO COLOMBIA
NEAR 12N72W. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF HAITI...IN THE GULF OF GONAVE...AND ALONG THE N
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A WEAK UPPER LOW HAS FORMED
OVER THE MONA PASSAGE/W PUERTO RICO WHICH IS GENERATING THE
ABOVE ACTIVITY. THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH TODAY THEN WEAKEN GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN AND HISPANIOLA
W FLOW ALOFT. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY TUE
AND COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MON. AFTERNOON SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT STARTING TUE AS THE LINGERING MOISTURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS A PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OF NEWFOUNDLAND. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. AN UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 63W THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES
THROUGH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE MONA PASSAGE/W PUERTO RICO
INTO THE CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 69W-
75W AND INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 31N65W TO 27N68W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE S
EXTENDING FROM 25N64W TO 23N71W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS CENTERED
NEAR 24N52W SUPPORTING A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 24N50W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 20N55W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 48W-55W AND
WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE 1010 MB LOW. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS
BETWEEN THE BROAD W ATLC UPPER TROUGH AND THE CENTRAL ATLC UPPER
LOW GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
45 NM OF LINE FROM 25N62W TO 32N59W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE
NE ATLC TO 23N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE
REGION NEAR 32N20W ALONG 26N24W TO 24N30W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT TO 16W
INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS AND N OF 29N W OF THE FRONT TO 25W.
GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM THE US PASSING CLOSE
TO OR JUST SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SUN AND
WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY MON WHERE
IT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT LIFTS N OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 190546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 44.2N 55.0W AT 19/0300 UTC OR
ABOUT 170 NM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NE AT 41 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 41N-47N BETWEEN 54W-60W. PLEASE SEE LATEST
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 16N38W
TO 5N40W MOVING W 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND REMAINS BENEATH THE WESTERN
PORTION OF AN UPPER RIDGE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 35W-40W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N24W TO 8N30W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N42W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-
8N BETWEEN 27W-31W AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 43W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC TO ALONG
THE N GULF COAST SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE
GULF WATERS AT 19/0300 UTC JUST N OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO
INLAND OVER LOUISIANA NEAR NEW ORLEANS. THERE IS NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS MOST OF GULF E OF 90W. AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE W GULF ALONG 96W TO
OVER NE TEXAS GIVING THE GULF WATERS NW FLOW ALOFT. CONVERGENCE
OF THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N W
OF 90W AND FROM 22N-27N W OF 92W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH
OVER MISSOURI...BRIDGING THE FRONT...THEN INTO THE GULF NEAR SW
LOUISIANA TO 25N85W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND BECOME
DIFFUSE FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST SUN
NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW
GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W
CARIBBEAN TO 80W AND IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-22N W OF 77W
TO OVER THE YUCATAN. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS
THROUGH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE MONA PASSAGE/W PUERTO RICO TO
OVER THE ABC ISLANDS. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 70W-76W. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W ALONG 10N80W TO
ACROSS PANAMA/COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF LINE FROM 15N83W TO COLOMBIA
NEAR 12N72W. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF HAITI...IN THE GULF OF GONAVE...AND ALONG THE N
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A WEAK UPPER LOW HAS FORMED
OVER THE MONA PASSAGE/W PUERTO RICO WHICH IS GENERATING THE
ABOVE ACTIVITY. THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH TODAY THEN WEAKEN GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN AND HISPANIOLA
W FLOW ALOFT. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY TUE
AND COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MON. AFTERNOON SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT STARTING TUE AS THE LINGERING MOISTURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS A PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OF NEWFOUNDLAND. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. AN UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 63W THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES
THROUGH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE MONA PASSAGE/W PUERTO RICO
INTO THE CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 69W-
75W AND INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 31N65W TO 27N68W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE S
EXTENDING FROM 25N64W TO 23N71W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS CENTERED
NEAR 24N52W SUPPORTING A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 24N50W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 20N55W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 48W-55W AND
WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE 1010 MB LOW. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS
BETWEEN THE BROAD W ATLC UPPER TROUGH AND THE CENTRAL ATLC UPPER
LOW GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
45 NM OF LINE FROM 25N62W TO 32N59W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE
NE ATLC TO 23N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE
REGION NEAR 32N20W ALONG 26N24W TO 24N30W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT TO 16W
INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS AND N OF 29N W OF THE FRONT TO 25W.
GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM THE US PASSING CLOSE
TO OR JUST SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SUN AND
WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY MON WHERE
IT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT LIFTS N OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 190546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 44.2N 55.0W AT 19/0300 UTC OR
ABOUT 170 NM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NE AT 41 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 41N-47N BETWEEN 54W-60W. PLEASE SEE LATEST
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 16N38W
TO 5N40W MOVING W 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND REMAINS BENEATH THE WESTERN
PORTION OF AN UPPER RIDGE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 35W-40W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N24W TO 8N30W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N42W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-
8N BETWEEN 27W-31W AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 43W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC TO ALONG
THE N GULF COAST SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE
GULF WATERS AT 19/0300 UTC JUST N OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO
INLAND OVER LOUISIANA NEAR NEW ORLEANS. THERE IS NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS MOST OF GULF E OF 90W. AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE W GULF ALONG 96W TO
OVER NE TEXAS GIVING THE GULF WATERS NW FLOW ALOFT. CONVERGENCE
OF THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N W
OF 90W AND FROM 22N-27N W OF 92W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH
OVER MISSOURI...BRIDGING THE FRONT...THEN INTO THE GULF NEAR SW
LOUISIANA TO 25N85W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND BECOME
DIFFUSE FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST SUN
NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW
GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W
CARIBBEAN TO 80W AND IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-22N W OF 77W
TO OVER THE YUCATAN. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS
THROUGH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE MONA PASSAGE/W PUERTO RICO TO
OVER THE ABC ISLANDS. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 70W-76W. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W ALONG 10N80W TO
ACROSS PANAMA/COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF LINE FROM 15N83W TO COLOMBIA
NEAR 12N72W. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF HAITI...IN THE GULF OF GONAVE...AND ALONG THE N
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A WEAK UPPER LOW HAS FORMED
OVER THE MONA PASSAGE/W PUERTO RICO WHICH IS GENERATING THE
ABOVE ACTIVITY. THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH TODAY THEN WEAKEN GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN AND HISPANIOLA
W FLOW ALOFT. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY TUE
AND COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MON. AFTERNOON SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT STARTING TUE AS THE LINGERING MOISTURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS A PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OF NEWFOUNDLAND. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. AN UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 63W THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES
THROUGH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE MONA PASSAGE/W PUERTO RICO
INTO THE CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 69W-
75W AND INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 31N65W TO 27N68W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE S
EXTENDING FROM 25N64W TO 23N71W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS CENTERED
NEAR 24N52W SUPPORTING A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 24N50W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 20N55W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 48W-55W AND
WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE 1010 MB LOW. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS
BETWEEN THE BROAD W ATLC UPPER TROUGH AND THE CENTRAL ATLC UPPER
LOW GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
45 NM OF LINE FROM 25N62W TO 32N59W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE
NE ATLC TO 23N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE
REGION NEAR 32N20W ALONG 26N24W TO 24N30W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT TO 16W
INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS AND N OF 29N W OF THE FRONT TO 25W.
GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM THE US PASSING CLOSE
TO OR JUST SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SUN AND
WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY MON WHERE
IT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT LIFTS N OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 190546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 44.2N 55.0W AT 19/0300 UTC OR
ABOUT 170 NM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NE AT 41 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 41N-47N BETWEEN 54W-60W. PLEASE SEE LATEST
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 16N38W
TO 5N40W MOVING W 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND REMAINS BENEATH THE WESTERN
PORTION OF AN UPPER RIDGE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 35W-40W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N24W TO 8N30W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N42W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-
8N BETWEEN 27W-31W AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 43W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC TO ALONG
THE N GULF COAST SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE
GULF WATERS AT 19/0300 UTC JUST N OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO
INLAND OVER LOUISIANA NEAR NEW ORLEANS. THERE IS NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS MOST OF GULF E OF 90W. AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE W GULF ALONG 96W TO
OVER NE TEXAS GIVING THE GULF WATERS NW FLOW ALOFT. CONVERGENCE
OF THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N W
OF 90W AND FROM 22N-27N W OF 92W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH
OVER MISSOURI...BRIDGING THE FRONT...THEN INTO THE GULF NEAR SW
LOUISIANA TO 25N85W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND BECOME
DIFFUSE FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST SUN
NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW
GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W
CARIBBEAN TO 80W AND IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-22N W OF 77W
TO OVER THE YUCATAN. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS
THROUGH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE MONA PASSAGE/W PUERTO RICO TO
OVER THE ABC ISLANDS. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 70W-76W. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W ALONG 10N80W TO
ACROSS PANAMA/COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF LINE FROM 15N83W TO COLOMBIA
NEAR 12N72W. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF HAITI...IN THE GULF OF GONAVE...AND ALONG THE N
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A WEAK UPPER LOW HAS FORMED
OVER THE MONA PASSAGE/W PUERTO RICO WHICH IS GENERATING THE
ABOVE ACTIVITY. THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH TODAY THEN WEAKEN GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN AND HISPANIOLA
W FLOW ALOFT. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY TUE
AND COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MON. AFTERNOON SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT STARTING TUE AS THE LINGERING MOISTURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS A PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OF NEWFOUNDLAND. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. AN UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 63W THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES
THROUGH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE MONA PASSAGE/W PUERTO RICO
INTO THE CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 69W-
75W AND INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 31N65W TO 27N68W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE S
EXTENDING FROM 25N64W TO 23N71W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS CENTERED
NEAR 24N52W SUPPORTING A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 24N50W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 20N55W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 48W-55W AND
WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE 1010 MB LOW. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS
BETWEEN THE BROAD W ATLC UPPER TROUGH AND THE CENTRAL ATLC UPPER
LOW GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
45 NM OF LINE FROM 25N62W TO 32N59W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE
NE ATLC TO 23N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE
REGION NEAR 32N20W ALONG 26N24W TO 24N30W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT TO 16W
INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS AND N OF 29N W OF THE FRONT TO 25W.
GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM THE US PASSING CLOSE
TO OR JUST SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SUN AND
WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY MON WHERE
IT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT LIFTS N OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
WTNT33 KNHC 190540
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  27A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
200 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

...HURRICANE GONZALO RACING NORTHEASTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR CAPE RACE THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.2N 55.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 48 MPH...78 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.0 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 48 MPH...78 KM/H. A NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH A FURTHER INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS FORECAST BY
EARLY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PASS
NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE
AVALON PENINSULA OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. GONZALO IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY WHEN IT MOVES OVER
THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

GONZALO HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. THE LARGEST
EXTENT OF THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
WTNT33 KNHC 190540
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  27A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
200 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

...HURRICANE GONZALO RACING NORTHEASTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR CAPE RACE THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.2N 55.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 48 MPH...78 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.0 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 48 MPH...78 KM/H. A NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH A FURTHER INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS FORECAST BY
EARLY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PASS
NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE
AVALON PENINSULA OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. GONZALO IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY WHEN IT MOVES OVER
THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

GONZALO HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. THE LARGEST
EXTENT OF THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
WTNT33 KNHC 190540
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  27A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
200 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

...HURRICANE GONZALO RACING NORTHEASTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR CAPE RACE THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.2N 55.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 48 MPH...78 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.0 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 48 MPH...78 KM/H. A NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH A FURTHER INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS FORECAST BY
EARLY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PASS
NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE
AVALON PENINSULA OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. GONZALO IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY WHEN IT MOVES OVER
THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

GONZALO HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. THE LARGEST
EXTENT OF THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
WTNT33 KNHC 190540
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  27A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
200 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

...HURRICANE GONZALO RACING NORTHEASTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR CAPE RACE THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.2N 55.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 48 MPH...78 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.0 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 48 MPH...78 KM/H. A NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH A FURTHER INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS FORECAST BY
EARLY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PASS
NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE
AVALON PENINSULA OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. GONZALO IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY WHEN IT MOVES OVER
THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

GONZALO HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. THE LARGEST
EXTENT OF THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
ABNT20 KNHC 190539
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gonzalo, located south-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

A low pressure system is expected to form over the Bay of Campeche
or the southern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of this week. Some
gradual development of this system is possible after that time while
it moves slowly east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A large non-tropical low is expected to form over the far eastern
Atlantic Ocean about midway between the Azores Islands and the
Canary Islands during the next couple of days. This system could
possibly acquire subtropical characteristics by the middle of the
week while it moves westward to west-northwestward over relatively
warm waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190539
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
the remnants of Trudy, located inland over southern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABNT20 KNHC 190539
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gonzalo, located south-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

A low pressure system is expected to form over the Bay of Campeche
or the southern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of this week. Some
gradual development of this system is possible after that time while
it moves slowly east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A large non-tropical low is expected to form over the far eastern
Atlantic Ocean about midway between the Azores Islands and the
Canary Islands during the next couple of days. This system could
possibly acquire subtropical characteristics by the middle of the
week while it moves westward to west-northwestward over relatively
warm waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190539
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
the remnants of Trudy, located inland over southern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190539
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
the remnants of Trudy, located inland over southern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
ABNT20 KNHC 190539
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gonzalo, located south-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

A low pressure system is expected to form over the Bay of Campeche
or the southern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of this week. Some
gradual development of this system is possible after that time while
it moves slowly east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A large non-tropical low is expected to form over the far eastern
Atlantic Ocean about midway between the Azores Islands and the
Canary Islands during the next couple of days. This system could
possibly acquire subtropical characteristics by the middle of the
week while it moves westward to west-northwestward over relatively
warm waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
ACPN50 PHFO 190535
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU...HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE ANA...LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP5 AND WMO HEADER
WTPA35 PHFO.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

$$

HOUSTON





000
ACPN50 PHFO 190535
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU...HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE ANA...LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP5 AND WMO HEADER
WTPA35 PHFO.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

$$

HOUSTON






000
WTPA35 PHFO 190500
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  22A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
700 PM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

...ANA CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND WILL PASS DANGEROUSLY CLOSE
TO KAUAI COUNTY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM HST...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 159.1W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE MAINLY
NEAR THE ISLAND OF NIIHAU DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM HST...0500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 159.1 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTH OF NIIHAU
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...115 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI TONIGHT...
AND 120 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OAHU THIS EVENING. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
WELL WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
ANA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY NEAR NIIHAU AND WATERS TO THE SOUTH.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU TONIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE SWELLS
COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES AND WILL PERSIST ALONG MOST ISLANDS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL
MOVE OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ON SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...900 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD




000
WTPA35 PHFO 190500
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  22A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
700 PM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

...ANA CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND WILL PASS DANGEROUSLY CLOSE
TO KAUAI COUNTY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM HST...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 159.1W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE MAINLY
NEAR THE ISLAND OF NIIHAU DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM HST...0500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 159.1 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTH OF NIIHAU
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...115 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI TONIGHT...
AND 120 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OAHU THIS EVENING. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
WELL WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
ANA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY NEAR NIIHAU AND WATERS TO THE SOUTH.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU TONIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE SWELLS
COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES AND WILL PERSIST ALONG MOST ISLANDS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL
MOVE OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ON SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...900 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD





000
WTNT33 KNHC 190249
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

...HURRICANE GONZALO GROWS LARGER WHILE RACING NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.3N 57.0W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 39 MPH...63 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 39 MPH...63 KM/H. THE HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED MAINTAIN THIS DIRECTION OF MOTION TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY AN
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE TO OR JUST SOUTH OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ALTHOUGH WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT PASSES
CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY
LATE SUNDAY WHEN IT MOVES OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC.

THE WIND FIELD OF GONZALO HAS EXPANDED. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS NOW
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND BY EARLY SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



000
WTNT33 KNHC 190249
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

...HURRICANE GONZALO GROWS LARGER WHILE RACING NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.3N 57.0W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 39 MPH...63 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 39 MPH...63 KM/H. THE HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED MAINTAIN THIS DIRECTION OF MOTION TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY AN
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE TO OR JUST SOUTH OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ALTHOUGH WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT PASSES
CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY
LATE SUNDAY WHEN IT MOVES OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC.

THE WIND FIELD OF GONZALO HAS EXPANDED. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS NOW
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND BY EARLY SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTNT23 KNHC 190244
TCMAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
0300 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.3N  57.0W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  40 DEGREES AT  34 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 100SE  40SW  30NW.
50 KT.......120NE 160SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 250SE 170SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 400SE 270SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.3N  57.0W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.0N  58.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 47.0N  50.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW   0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 140SE  70SW  30NW.
34 KT...150NE 260SE 190SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 52.0N  38.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 160SE 120SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 270SE 200SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 54.0N  24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 120SE 120SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 320SE 320SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 57.0N   8.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 420SE 420SW 480NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.3N  57.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





000
WTNT23 KNHC 190244
TCMAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
0300 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.3N  57.0W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  40 DEGREES AT  34 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 100SE  40SW  30NW.
50 KT.......120NE 160SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 250SE 170SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 400SE 270SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.3N  57.0W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.0N  58.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 47.0N  50.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW   0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 140SE  70SW  30NW.
34 KT...150NE 260SE 190SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 52.0N  38.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 160SE 120SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 270SE 200SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 54.0N  24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 120SE 120SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 320SE 320SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 57.0N   8.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 420SE 420SW 480NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.3N  57.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190237
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N87W TO 15N96W...THEN
RESUMES FROM 15N102W TO 11N115W TO 11N127W TO 08N135W. ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 08N135W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION N OF 16N BETWEEN 98W AND 102W...AND WITHIN 45
NM OF 15N95.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF
AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

TRUDY HAS DISSIPATED OVER LAND INTO A REMNANT LOW CENTERED NEAR
17.4N 98.2W 1006 MB AT 0300 UTC OCT 18. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR ALONG THE COAST OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO STATES TONIGHT AND
PRODUCE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA SUN AND EXTEND FROM
30N138W TO 28N140W SUN MORNING. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15-16
FT IN NW SWELL IN FAR NW PORTION BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SUN
EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT AND MON AS THE SWELL
PROPAGATES SE FURTHER AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE AND THE FRONT WEAKENS
INTO A TROUGH.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SW WINDS WILL INCREASE S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS SUN NIGHT AND MON BETWEEN 95W AND 105W...ALLOWING
COMBINED SEAS TO BUILD TO 8-9 FT.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS
W OF 115W... PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N
AND W OF 113W. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SUN AS THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS INTO NW WATERS. A WEAK NARROW RIDGE WILL PERSIST SE OF
THE FRONT THROUGH MON. LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED S OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190237
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N87W TO 15N96W...THEN
RESUMES FROM 15N102W TO 11N115W TO 11N127W TO 08N135W. ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 08N135W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION N OF 16N BETWEEN 98W AND 102W...AND WITHIN 45
NM OF 15N95.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF
AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

TRUDY HAS DISSIPATED OVER LAND INTO A REMNANT LOW CENTERED NEAR
17.4N 98.2W 1006 MB AT 0300 UTC OCT 18. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR ALONG THE COAST OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO STATES TONIGHT AND
PRODUCE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA SUN AND EXTEND FROM
30N138W TO 28N140W SUN MORNING. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15-16
FT IN NW SWELL IN FAR NW PORTION BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SUN
EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT AND MON AS THE SWELL
PROPAGATES SE FURTHER AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE AND THE FRONT WEAKENS
INTO A TROUGH.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SW WINDS WILL INCREASE S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS SUN NIGHT AND MON BETWEEN 95W AND 105W...ALLOWING
COMBINED SEAS TO BUILD TO 8-9 FT.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS
W OF 115W... PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N
AND W OF 113W. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SUN AS THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS INTO NW WATERS. A WEAK NARROW RIDGE WILL PERSIST SE OF
THE FRONT THROUGH MON. LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED S OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190237
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N87W TO 15N96W...THEN
RESUMES FROM 15N102W TO 11N115W TO 11N127W TO 08N135W. ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 08N135W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION N OF 16N BETWEEN 98W AND 102W...AND WITHIN 45
NM OF 15N95.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF
AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

TRUDY HAS DISSIPATED OVER LAND INTO A REMNANT LOW CENTERED NEAR
17.4N 98.2W 1006 MB AT 0300 UTC OCT 18. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR ALONG THE COAST OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO STATES TONIGHT AND
PRODUCE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA SUN AND EXTEND FROM
30N138W TO 28N140W SUN MORNING. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15-16
FT IN NW SWELL IN FAR NW PORTION BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SUN
EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT AND MON AS THE SWELL
PROPAGATES SE FURTHER AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE AND THE FRONT WEAKENS
INTO A TROUGH.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SW WINDS WILL INCREASE S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS SUN NIGHT AND MON BETWEEN 95W AND 105W...ALLOWING
COMBINED SEAS TO BUILD TO 8-9 FT.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS
W OF 115W... PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N
AND W OF 113W. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SUN AS THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS INTO NW WATERS. A WEAK NARROW RIDGE WILL PERSIST SE OF
THE FRONT THROUGH MON. LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED S OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190237
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N87W TO 15N96W...THEN
RESUMES FROM 15N102W TO 11N115W TO 11N127W TO 08N135W. ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 08N135W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION N OF 16N BETWEEN 98W AND 102W...AND WITHIN 45
NM OF 15N95.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF
AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

TRUDY HAS DISSIPATED OVER LAND INTO A REMNANT LOW CENTERED NEAR
17.4N 98.2W 1006 MB AT 0300 UTC OCT 18. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR ALONG THE COAST OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO STATES TONIGHT AND
PRODUCE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA SUN AND EXTEND FROM
30N138W TO 28N140W SUN MORNING. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15-16
FT IN NW SWELL IN FAR NW PORTION BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SUN
EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT AND MON AS THE SWELL
PROPAGATES SE FURTHER AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE AND THE FRONT WEAKENS
INTO A TROUGH.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SW WINDS WILL INCREASE S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS SUN NIGHT AND MON BETWEEN 95W AND 105W...ALLOWING
COMBINED SEAS TO BUILD TO 8-9 FT.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS
W OF 115W... PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N
AND W OF 113W. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SUN AS THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS INTO NW WATERS. A WEAK NARROW RIDGE WILL PERSIST SE OF
THE FRONT THROUGH MON. LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED S OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL



000
WTPZ25 KNHC 190236
TCMEP5

REMNANTS OF TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
0300 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  98.2W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  98.2W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  98.3W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N  98.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





000
WTPZ25 KNHC 190236
TCMEP5

REMNANTS OF TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
0300 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  98.2W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  98.2W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  98.3W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N  98.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





000
WTPZ35 KNHC 190236
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...TRUDY IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES STILL LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 98.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF TRUDY WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.2 WEST.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE REMNANTS OF TRUDY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF
6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS IN THE STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO.
THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



000
WTPZ35 KNHC 190236
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...TRUDY IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES STILL LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 98.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF TRUDY WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.2 WEST.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE REMNANTS OF TRUDY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF
6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS IN THE STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO.
THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



000
WTPZ25 KNHC 190236
TCMEP5

REMNANTS OF TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
0300 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  98.2W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  98.2W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  98.3W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N  98.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





000
WTPZ25 KNHC 190236
TCMEP5

REMNANTS OF TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
0300 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  98.2W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  98.2W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  98.3W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N  98.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





000
WTPZ35 KNHC 190236
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...TRUDY IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES STILL LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 98.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF TRUDY WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.2 WEST.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE REMNANTS OF TRUDY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF
6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS IN THE STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO.
THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



000
WTPZ35 KNHC 190236
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...TRUDY IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES STILL LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 98.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF TRUDY WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.2 WEST.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE REMNANTS OF TRUDY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF
6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS IN THE STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO.
THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



000
WTPZ25 KNHC 190236
TCMEP5

REMNANTS OF TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
0300 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  98.2W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  98.2W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  98.3W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N  98.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





000
WTPZ25 KNHC 190236
TCMEP5

REMNANTS OF TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
0300 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  98.2W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  98.2W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  98.3W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N  98.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





000
WTPZ35 KNHC 190236
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...TRUDY IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES STILL LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 98.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF TRUDY WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.2 WEST.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE REMNANTS OF TRUDY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF
6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS IN THE STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO.
THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



000
WTPZ35 KNHC 190236
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...TRUDY IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES STILL LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 98.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF TRUDY WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.2 WEST.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE REMNANTS OF TRUDY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF
6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS IN THE STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO.
THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



000
WTPZ25 KNHC 190236
TCMEP5

REMNANTS OF TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
0300 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  98.2W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  98.2W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  98.3W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N  98.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





000
WTPZ25 KNHC 190236
TCMEP5

REMNANTS OF TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
0300 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  98.2W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  98.2W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  98.3W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N  98.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





000
WTPZ35 KNHC 190236
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...TRUDY IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES STILL LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 98.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF TRUDY WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.2 WEST.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE REMNANTS OF TRUDY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF
6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS IN THE STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO.
THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



000
WTPZ35 KNHC 190236
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...TRUDY IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES STILL LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 98.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF TRUDY WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.2 WEST.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE REMNANTS OF TRUDY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF
6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS IN THE STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO.
THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



000
WTPZ35 KNHC 190236
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...TRUDY IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES STILL LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 98.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF TRUDY WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.2 WEST.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE REMNANTS OF TRUDY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF
6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS IN THE STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO.
THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




000
WTPZ25 KNHC 190236
TCMEP5

REMNANTS OF TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
0300 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  98.2W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  98.2W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  98.3W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N  98.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




000
WTPZ25 KNHC 190236
TCMEP5

REMNANTS OF TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
0300 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  98.2W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  98.2W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  98.3W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N  98.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





000
WTPZ35 KNHC 190236
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...TRUDY IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES STILL LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 98.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF TRUDY WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.2 WEST.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE REMNANTS OF TRUDY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF
6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS IN THE STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO.
THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



000
WTPZ25 KNHC 190236
TCMEP5

REMNANTS OF TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
0300 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  98.2W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  98.2W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  98.3W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N  98.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





000
WTPZ35 KNHC 190236
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...TRUDY IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES STILL LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 98.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF TRUDY WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.2 WEST.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE REMNANTS OF TRUDY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF
6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS IN THE STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO.
THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



000
WTPA25 PHFO 190230
TCMCP5

HURRICANE ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
0300 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KAUAI COUNTY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE MAINLY
NEAR THE ISLAND OF NIIHAU DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 159.2W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  20SE  10SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE  40SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  70SW 110NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 159.2W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 159.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.3N 160.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.7N 161.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.0N 162.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.7N 164.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.7N 166.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 25.8N 167.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 28.0N 168.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 159.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER WROE








000
WTPA25 PHFO 190230
TCMCP5

HURRICANE ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
0300 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KAUAI COUNTY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE MAINLY
NEAR THE ISLAND OF NIIHAU DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 159.2W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  20SE  10SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE  40SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  70SW 110NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 159.2W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 159.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.3N 160.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.7N 161.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.0N 162.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.7N 164.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.7N 166.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 25.8N 167.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 28.0N 168.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 159.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER WROE







000
WTPA35 PHFO 190230
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
500 PM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

...ANA CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND WILL PASS DANGEROUSLY CLOSE
TO KAUAI COUNTY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 159.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KAUAI COUNTY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE MAINLY
NEAR THE ISLAND OF NIIHAU DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 159.2 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A DECREASE IN FORWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTH OF NIIHAU
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...115 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI TONIGHT...
AND 120 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OAHU THIS EVENING. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
WELL WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
ANA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY NEAR NIIHAU AND WATERS TO THE SOUTH.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU TONIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE SWELLS
COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES AND WILL PERSIST ALONG MOST ISLANDS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL
MOVE OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ON SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...700 PM HST AND 900 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE







000
WTPA35 PHFO 190230
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
500 PM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

...ANA CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND WILL PASS DANGEROUSLY CLOSE
TO KAUAI COUNTY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 159.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KAUAI COUNTY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE MAINLY
NEAR THE ISLAND OF NIIHAU DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 159.2 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A DECREASE IN FORWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTH OF NIIHAU
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...115 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI TONIGHT...
AND 120 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OAHU THIS EVENING. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
WELL WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
ANA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY NEAR NIIHAU AND WATERS TO THE SOUTH.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU TONIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE SWELLS
COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES AND WILL PERSIST ALONG MOST ISLANDS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL
MOVE OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ON SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...700 PM HST AND 900 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE







000
WTPA35 PHFO 190230
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
500 PM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

...ANA CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND WILL PASS DANGEROUSLY CLOSE
TO KAUAI COUNTY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 159.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KAUAI COUNTY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE MAINLY
NEAR THE ISLAND OF NIIHAU DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 159.2 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A DECREASE IN FORWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTH OF NIIHAU
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...115 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI TONIGHT...
AND 120 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OAHU THIS EVENING. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
WELL WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
ANA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY NEAR NIIHAU AND WATERS TO THE SOUTH.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU TONIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE SWELLS
COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES AND WILL PERSIST ALONG MOST ISLANDS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL
MOVE OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ON SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...700 PM HST AND 900 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE







000
WTPA35 PHFO 190230
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
500 PM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

...ANA CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND WILL PASS DANGEROUSLY CLOSE
TO KAUAI COUNTY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 159.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KAUAI COUNTY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE MAINLY
NEAR THE ISLAND OF NIIHAU DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 159.2 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A DECREASE IN FORWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTH OF NIIHAU
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...115 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI TONIGHT...
AND 120 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OAHU THIS EVENING. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
WELL WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
ANA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY NEAR NIIHAU AND WATERS TO THE SOUTH.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU TONIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE SWELLS
COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES AND WILL PERSIST ALONG MOST ISLANDS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL
MOVE OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ON SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...700 PM HST AND 900 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE







000
WTPA35 PHFO 182359
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  21A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
200 PM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

...ANA CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND WILL PASS DANGEROUSLY CLOSE
TO KAUAI COUNTY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 158.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 158.9 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A CONTINUED DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED TONIGHT. A FURTHER TURN TOWARD THE WEST
IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA
WILL PASS ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OAHU THIS AFTERNOON...
ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI TONIGHT...AND 105 MILES SOUTH OF
NIIHAU TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
ANA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU AND KAUAI
COUNTY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES THROUGH SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL
MOVE OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ON SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE







000
WTPA35 PHFO 182359
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  21A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
200 PM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

...ANA CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND WILL PASS DANGEROUSLY CLOSE
TO KAUAI COUNTY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 158.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 158.9 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A CONTINUED DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED TONIGHT. A FURTHER TURN TOWARD THE WEST
IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA
WILL PASS ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OAHU THIS AFTERNOON...
ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI TONIGHT...AND 105 MILES SOUTH OF
NIIHAU TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
ANA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU AND KAUAI
COUNTY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES THROUGH SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL
MOVE OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ON SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE






000
AXNT20 KNHC 182348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 18/2100 UTC...HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 39.3N
60.0W OR ABOUT ABOUT 360 NM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA AND ABOUT
540 NM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NNE AT 30 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUST TO 100 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF 38N BETWEEN 58W-63W. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS THAT
EXTENDS FROM 15N36W TO 05N39W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT 10 KT.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE AS DEPICTED
ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DECENT DEEP-LAYER WIND
SHEAR IS ALSO IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE LIMITING
CONVECTION TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 07N-16N BETWEEN 33W-
40W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES TO 07N20W TO 08N35W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 05N41 AND EXTENDS TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 05N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
08N BETWEEN 14W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM
05N-08N BETWEEN 41W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN US. AN ELONGATED 1026
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL US IS KEEPING A WSW FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONLY AREA WITH CONVECTION IS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN GULF AS THE NOW T.D. TRUDY CONTINUES
SLOWLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO. THERE ARE ALSO
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING W OF 93W BETWEEN 23N-27N. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND N YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE PACIFIC W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
IS PAIRING WITH A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE MONA PASSAGE TO
KEEP A DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE BASIN S OF 15N.
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH ALSO IN THE PROXIMITY OF THIS DIFFLUENT
FLOW...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT OVER THIS AREA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES
MAINLY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING/OROGRAPHIC LIFTING THEREFORE
EXPECT FOR IT TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. 05-
15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE BASIN WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND NEAR THE CONVECTION ALREADY
DISCUSSED. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT THE CONVECTION S OF
15N TO PERSIST AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH
STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER HAITI. EXPECT AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N61W TO THE S
BAHAMAS AT 23N69W. A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 24N51W MOVING NW AT 10 KT. THIS LOW IS ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N51W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM
THIS LOW TO 19N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF
THE LOW CENTER FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 48W-54W. A 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 34N20W WITH A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM IT TO 27N36W. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM
27N36W TO 26N58W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE
FROM 30N-40N BETWEEN 15W-24W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST ON SUNDAY. THE
BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL BY
MONDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 182348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 18/2100 UTC...HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 39.3N
60.0W OR ABOUT ABOUT 360 NM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA AND ABOUT
540 NM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NNE AT 30 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUST TO 100 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF 38N BETWEEN 58W-63W. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS THAT
EXTENDS FROM 15N36W TO 05N39W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT 10 KT.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE AS DEPICTED
ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DECENT DEEP-LAYER WIND
SHEAR IS ALSO IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE LIMITING
CONVECTION TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 07N-16N BETWEEN 33W-
40W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES TO 07N20W TO 08N35W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 05N41 AND EXTENDS TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 05N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
08N BETWEEN 14W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM
05N-08N BETWEEN 41W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN US. AN ELONGATED 1026
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL US IS KEEPING A WSW FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONLY AREA WITH CONVECTION IS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN GULF AS THE NOW T.D. TRUDY CONTINUES
SLOWLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO. THERE ARE ALSO
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING W OF 93W BETWEEN 23N-27N. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND N YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE PACIFIC W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
IS PAIRING WITH A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE MONA PASSAGE TO
KEEP A DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE BASIN S OF 15N.
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH ALSO IN THE PROXIMITY OF THIS DIFFLUENT
FLOW...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT OVER THIS AREA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES
MAINLY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING/OROGRAPHIC LIFTING THEREFORE
EXPECT FOR IT TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. 05-
15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE BASIN WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND NEAR THE CONVECTION ALREADY
DISCUSSED. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT THE CONVECTION S OF
15N TO PERSIST AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH
STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER HAITI. EXPECT AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N61W TO THE S
BAHAMAS AT 23N69W. A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 24N51W MOVING NW AT 10 KT. THIS LOW IS ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N51W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM
THIS LOW TO 19N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF
THE LOW CENTER FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 48W-54W. A 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 34N20W WITH A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM IT TO 27N36W. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM
27N36W TO 26N58W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE
FROM 30N-40N BETWEEN 15W-24W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST ON SUNDAY. THE
BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL BY
MONDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 182348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 18/2100 UTC...HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 39.3N
60.0W OR ABOUT ABOUT 360 NM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA AND ABOUT
540 NM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NNE AT 30 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUST TO 100 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF 38N BETWEEN 58W-63W. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS THAT
EXTENDS FROM 15N36W TO 05N39W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT 10 KT.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE AS DEPICTED
ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DECENT DEEP-LAYER WIND
SHEAR IS ALSO IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE LIMITING
CONVECTION TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 07N-16N BETWEEN 33W-
40W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES TO 07N20W TO 08N35W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 05N41 AND EXTENDS TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 05N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
08N BETWEEN 14W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM
05N-08N BETWEEN 41W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN US. AN ELONGATED 1026
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL US IS KEEPING A WSW FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONLY AREA WITH CONVECTION IS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN GULF AS THE NOW T.D. TRUDY CONTINUES
SLOWLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO. THERE ARE ALSO
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING W OF 93W BETWEEN 23N-27N. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND N YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE PACIFIC W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
IS PAIRING WITH A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE MONA PASSAGE TO
KEEP A DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE BASIN S OF 15N.
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH ALSO IN THE PROXIMITY OF THIS DIFFLUENT
FLOW...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT OVER THIS AREA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES
MAINLY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING/OROGRAPHIC LIFTING THEREFORE
EXPECT FOR IT TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. 05-
15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE BASIN WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND NEAR THE CONVECTION ALREADY
DISCUSSED. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT THE CONVECTION S OF
15N TO PERSIST AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH
STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER HAITI. EXPECT AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N61W TO THE S
BAHAMAS AT 23N69W. A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 24N51W MOVING NW AT 10 KT. THIS LOW IS ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N51W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM
THIS LOW TO 19N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF
THE LOW CENTER FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 48W-54W. A 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 34N20W WITH A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM IT TO 27N36W. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM
27N36W TO 26N58W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE
FROM 30N-40N BETWEEN 15W-24W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST ON SUNDAY. THE
BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL BY
MONDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 182348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 18/2100 UTC...HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 39.3N
60.0W OR ABOUT ABOUT 360 NM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA AND ABOUT
540 NM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NNE AT 30 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUST TO 100 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF 38N BETWEEN 58W-63W. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS THAT
EXTENDS FROM 15N36W TO 05N39W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT 10 KT.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE AS DEPICTED
ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DECENT DEEP-LAYER WIND
SHEAR IS ALSO IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE LIMITING
CONVECTION TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 07N-16N BETWEEN 33W-
40W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES TO 07N20W TO 08N35W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 05N41 AND EXTENDS TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 05N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
08N BETWEEN 14W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM
05N-08N BETWEEN 41W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN US. AN ELONGATED 1026
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL US IS KEEPING A WSW FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONLY AREA WITH CONVECTION IS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN GULF AS THE NOW T.D. TRUDY CONTINUES
SLOWLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO. THERE ARE ALSO
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING W OF 93W BETWEEN 23N-27N. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND N YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE PACIFIC W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
IS PAIRING WITH A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE MONA PASSAGE TO
KEEP A DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE BASIN S OF 15N.
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH ALSO IN THE PROXIMITY OF THIS DIFFLUENT
FLOW...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT OVER THIS AREA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES
MAINLY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING/OROGRAPHIC LIFTING THEREFORE
EXPECT FOR IT TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. 05-
15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE BASIN WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND NEAR THE CONVECTION ALREADY
DISCUSSED. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT THE CONVECTION S OF
15N TO PERSIST AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH
STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER HAITI. EXPECT AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N61W TO THE S
BAHAMAS AT 23N69W. A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 24N51W MOVING NW AT 10 KT. THIS LOW IS ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N51W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM
THIS LOW TO 19N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF
THE LOW CENTER FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 48W-54W. A 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 34N20W WITH A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM IT TO 27N36W. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM
27N36W TO 26N58W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE
FROM 30N-40N BETWEEN 15W-24W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST ON SUNDAY. THE
BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL BY
MONDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
WTNT33 KNHC 182346
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  26A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
800 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

...HURRICANE GONZALO CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.0N 58.5W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 39 MPH...63 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.5 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 39 MPH...63 KM/H. THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED MAINTAIN THIS DIRECTION OF MOTION TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE TO OR JUST SOUTH
OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ALTHOUGH WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT PASSES
CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY
LATE SUNDAY WHEN IT MOVES OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND BY EARLY SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTNT33 KNHC 182346
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  26A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
800 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

...HURRICANE GONZALO CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.0N 58.5W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 39 MPH...63 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.5 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 39 MPH...63 KM/H. THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED MAINTAIN THIS DIRECTION OF MOTION TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE TO OR JUST SOUTH
OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ALTHOUGH WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT PASSES
CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY
LATE SUNDAY WHEN IT MOVES OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND BY EARLY SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTNT33 KNHC 182346
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  26A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
800 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

...HURRICANE GONZALO CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.0N 58.5W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 39 MPH...63 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.5 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 39 MPH...63 KM/H. THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED MAINTAIN THIS DIRECTION OF MOTION TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE TO OR JUST SOUTH
OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ALTHOUGH WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT PASSES
CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY
LATE SUNDAY WHEN IT MOVES OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND BY EARLY SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTNT33 KNHC 182346
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  26A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
800 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

...HURRICANE GONZALO CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.0N 58.5W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 39 MPH...63 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.5 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 39 MPH...63 KM/H. THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED MAINTAIN THIS DIRECTION OF MOTION TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE TO OR JUST SOUTH
OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ALTHOUGH WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT PASSES
CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY
LATE SUNDAY WHEN IT MOVES OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND BY EARLY SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
ACPN50 PHFO 182345
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE ANA...LOCATED 133 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP5 AND
WMO HEADER WTPA35 PHFO.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$






000
ACPN50 PHFO 182345
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE ANA...LOCATED 133 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP5 AND
WMO HEADER WTPA35 PHFO.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$







000
ACCA62 TJSJ 182338
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT SABADO 18 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN GONZALO...LOCALIZADO A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL SUROESTE
DE CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION SE ESPERA QUE SE FORME SOBRE LA BAHIA DE
CAMPECHE O EL SUR DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO PARA MEDIADOS DE LA SEMANA
PROXIMA. ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL DEL SISTEMA SERA POSIBLE DESPUES
DE ESE TIEMPO MIENTRAS SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0
  POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

UNA GRANDE BAJA PRESION NO TROPICAL SE ESPERA QUE SE FORME SOBRE EL
ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO CASI ENTRE MEDIO DE LAS ISLAS AZORES Y LAS
ISLAS CANARIAS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. ESTE SISTEMA PODRIA
ADQUIRIR CARATERISTICAS SUBTROPICALES PARA MEDIADOS DE LA SEMANA
PROXIMA MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A OESTE NOROESTE SOBRE
AGUAS MAS CALIENTES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0
POR    CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 182338
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT SABADO 18 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN GONZALO...LOCALIZADO A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL SUROESTE
DE CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION SE ESPERA QUE SE FORME SOBRE LA BAHIA DE
CAMPECHE O EL SUR DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO PARA MEDIADOS DE LA SEMANA
PROXIMA. ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL DEL SISTEMA SERA POSIBLE DESPUES
DE ESE TIEMPO MIENTRAS SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0
  POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

UNA GRANDE BAJA PRESION NO TROPICAL SE ESPERA QUE SE FORME SOBRE EL
ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO CASI ENTRE MEDIO DE LAS ISLAS AZORES Y LAS
ISLAS CANARIAS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. ESTE SISTEMA PODRIA
ADQUIRIR CARATERISTICAS SUBTROPICALES PARA MEDIADOS DE LA SEMANA
PROXIMA MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A OESTE NOROESTE SOBRE
AGUAS MAS CALIENTES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0
POR    CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 182338
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT SABADO 18 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN GONZALO...LOCALIZADO A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL SUROESTE
DE CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION SE ESPERA QUE SE FORME SOBRE LA BAHIA DE
CAMPECHE O EL SUR DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO PARA MEDIADOS DE LA SEMANA
PROXIMA. ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL DEL SISTEMA SERA POSIBLE DESPUES
DE ESE TIEMPO MIENTRAS SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0
  POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

UNA GRANDE BAJA PRESION NO TROPICAL SE ESPERA QUE SE FORME SOBRE EL
ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO CASI ENTRE MEDIO DE LAS ISLAS AZORES Y LAS
ISLAS CANARIAS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. ESTE SISTEMA PODRIA
ADQUIRIR CARATERISTICAS SUBTROPICALES PARA MEDIADOS DE LA SEMANA
PROXIMA MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A OESTE NOROESTE SOBRE
AGUAS MAS CALIENTES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0
POR    CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 182338
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT SABADO 18 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN GONZALO...LOCALIZADO A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL SUROESTE
DE CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION SE ESPERA QUE SE FORME SOBRE LA BAHIA DE
CAMPECHE O EL SUR DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO PARA MEDIADOS DE LA SEMANA
PROXIMA. ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL DEL SISTEMA SERA POSIBLE DESPUES
DE ESE TIEMPO MIENTRAS SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0
  POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

UNA GRANDE BAJA PRESION NO TROPICAL SE ESPERA QUE SE FORME SOBRE EL
ESTE DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO CASI ENTRE MEDIO DE LAS ISLAS AZORES Y LAS
ISLAS CANARIAS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. ESTE SISTEMA PODRIA
ADQUIRIR CARATERISTICAS SUBTROPICALES PARA MEDIADOS DE LA SEMANA
PROXIMA MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A OESTE NOROESTE SOBRE
AGUAS MAS CALIENTES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0
POR    CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART





000
ABNT20 KNHC 182319
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gonzalo, located several hundred miles southwest of Cape Race
Newfoundland.

A low pressure system is expected to form over the Bay of Campeche
or the southern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.  Some
gradual development of the system will be possible after that time
while it moves slowly east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A large non-tropical low is expected to form over the far eastern
Atlantic Ocean about midway between the Azores Islands and the
Canary Islands during the next couple of days. This system could
possibly acquire subtropical characteristics by the middle of next
week while it moves westward to west-northwestward over warmer
waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABNT20 KNHC 182319
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gonzalo, located several hundred miles southwest of Cape Race
Newfoundland.

A low pressure system is expected to form over the Bay of Campeche
or the southern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.  Some
gradual development of the system will be possible after that time
while it moves slowly east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A large non-tropical low is expected to form over the far eastern
Atlantic Ocean about midway between the Azores Islands and the
Canary Islands during the next couple of days. This system could
possibly acquire subtropical characteristics by the middle of next
week while it moves westward to west-northwestward over warmer
waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABNT20 KNHC 182319
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gonzalo, located several hundred miles southwest of Cape Race
Newfoundland.

A low pressure system is expected to form over the Bay of Campeche
or the southern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.  Some
gradual development of the system will be possible after that time
while it moves slowly east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A large non-tropical low is expected to form over the far eastern
Atlantic Ocean about midway between the Azores Islands and the
Canary Islands during the next couple of days. This system could
possibly acquire subtropical characteristics by the middle of next
week while it moves westward to west-northwestward over warmer
waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABNT20 KNHC 182319
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gonzalo, located several hundred miles southwest of Cape Race
Newfoundland.

A low pressure system is expected to form over the Bay of Campeche
or the southern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.  Some
gradual development of the system will be possible after that time
while it moves slowly east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A large non-tropical low is expected to form over the far eastern
Atlantic Ocean about midway between the Azores Islands and the
Canary Islands during the next couple of days. This system could
possibly acquire subtropical characteristics by the middle of next
week while it moves westward to west-northwestward over warmer
waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182303
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on weakening
Tropical Depression Trudy, located inland over southern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182303
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on weakening
Tropical Depression Trudy, located inland over southern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182303
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on weakening
Tropical Depression Trudy, located inland over southern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182303
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on weakening
Tropical Depression Trudy, located inland over southern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182254
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07N85W TO 15N94W...RESUMES
SW OF T.D. TRUDY FROM 15N102W TO 10N115W TO 12N128W TO 09N135W.
ITCZ FROM 09N135W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 87W...AND WITHIN 30
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W AND 116W.

...DISCUSSION...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRUDY NEAR 17.2N 98.5W 1006 MB AT 2100 UTC
OCT 18 MOVING NNE OR 025 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30
KT GUSTS 40 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CIRCULATION MOVING
FURTHER INLAND AND LOSING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 103W.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
PRODUCE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES.

A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N124W TO 26N131W. NW
OF THE FRONT SEAS ARE 7-8 FT IN NW SWELL. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA SUN
AND EXTEND FROM 30N135W TO 26N140W SUN AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL
RAPIPDILY BUILD TO 15-16 FT IN NW SWELL IN FAR NW PORTION BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH SUN EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT
AND MON AS THE SWELL PROPAGATES SE AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE AND THE
FRONT WEAKENS.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS
W OF 115W... PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N
AND W OF 113W. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SUN AS THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS INTO NW WATERS. A WEAK NARROW RIDGE WILL PERSIST SE OF
THE FRONT THROUGH MON. LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED S OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182254
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07N85W TO 15N94W...RESUMES
SW OF T.D. TRUDY FROM 15N102W TO 10N115W TO 12N128W TO 09N135W.
ITCZ FROM 09N135W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 87W...AND WITHIN 30
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W AND 116W.

...DISCUSSION...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRUDY NEAR 17.2N 98.5W 1006 MB AT 2100 UTC
OCT 18 MOVING NNE OR 025 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30
KT GUSTS 40 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CIRCULATION MOVING
FURTHER INLAND AND LOSING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 103W.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
PRODUCE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES.

A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N124W TO 26N131W. NW
OF THE FRONT SEAS ARE 7-8 FT IN NW SWELL. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA SUN
AND EXTEND FROM 30N135W TO 26N140W SUN AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL
RAPIPDILY BUILD TO 15-16 FT IN NW SWELL IN FAR NW PORTION BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH SUN EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT
AND MON AS THE SWELL PROPAGATES SE AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE AND THE
FRONT WEAKENS.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS
W OF 115W... PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N
AND W OF 113W. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SUN AS THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS INTO NW WATERS. A WEAK NARROW RIDGE WILL PERSIST SE OF
THE FRONT THROUGH MON. LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED S OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182120 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07N85W TO 15N94W...RESUMES
SW OF T.D. TRUDY FROM 15N102W TO 10N115W TO 12N128W TO 09N135W.
ITCZ FROM 09N135W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 87W...AND WITHIN 30
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W AND 116W.

...DISCUSSION...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRUDY NEAR 17.2N 98.5W 1006 MB AT 2100 UTC
OCT 18 MOVING NNE OR 025 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30
KT GUSTS 40 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CIRCULATION MOVING
FURTHER INLAND AND LOSING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 103W.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
PRODUCE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES.

A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N124W TO 26N131W. NW
OF THE FRONT SEAS ARE 7-8 FT IN NW SWELL. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA SUN
AND EXTEND FROM 30N135W TO 26N140W SUN AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL
RAPIPDILY BUILD TO 15-16 FT IN NW SWELL IN FAR NW PORTION BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH SUN EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT
AND MON AS THE SWELL PROPAGATES SE AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE AND THE
FRONT WEAKENS.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS
W OF 115W... PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N
AND W OF 113W. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SUN AS THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS INTO NW WATERS. A WEAK NARROW RIDGE WILL PERSIST SE OF
THE FRONT THROUGH MON. LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED S OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182120 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07N85W TO 15N94W...RESUMES
SW OF T.D. TRUDY FROM 15N102W TO 10N115W TO 12N128W TO 09N135W.
ITCZ FROM 09N135W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 87W...AND WITHIN 30
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W AND 116W.

...DISCUSSION...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRUDY NEAR 17.2N 98.5W 1006 MB AT 2100 UTC
OCT 18 MOVING NNE OR 025 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30
KT GUSTS 40 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CIRCULATION MOVING
FURTHER INLAND AND LOSING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 103W.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
PRODUCE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES.

A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N124W TO 26N131W. NW
OF THE FRONT SEAS ARE 7-8 FT IN NW SWELL. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA SUN
AND EXTEND FROM 30N135W TO 26N140W SUN AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL
RAPIPDILY BUILD TO 15-16 FT IN NW SWELL IN FAR NW PORTION BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH SUN EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT
AND MON AS THE SWELL PROPAGATES SE AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE AND THE
FRONT WEAKENS.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS
W OF 115W... PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N
AND W OF 113W. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SUN AS THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS INTO NW WATERS. A WEAK NARROW RIDGE WILL PERSIST SE OF
THE FRONT THROUGH MON. LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED S OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182120 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07N85W TO 15N94W...RESUMES
SW OF T.D. TRUDY FROM 15N102W TO 10N115W TO 12N128W TO 09N135W.
ITCZ FROM 09N135W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 87W...AND WITHIN 30
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W AND 116W.

...DISCUSSION...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRUDY NEAR 17.2N 98.5W 1006 MB AT 2100 UTC
OCT 18 MOVING NNE OR 025 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30
KT GUSTS 40 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CIRCULATION MOVING
FURTHER INLAND AND LOSING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 103W.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
PRODUCE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES.

A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N124W TO 26N131W. NW
OF THE FRONT SEAS ARE 7-8 FT IN NW SWELL. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA SUN
AND EXTEND FROM 30N135W TO 26N140W SUN AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL
RAPIPDILY BUILD TO 15-16 FT IN NW SWELL IN FAR NW PORTION BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH SUN EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT
AND MON AS THE SWELL PROPAGATES SE AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE AND THE
FRONT WEAKENS.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS
W OF 115W... PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N
AND W OF 113W. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SUN AS THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS INTO NW WATERS. A WEAK NARROW RIDGE WILL PERSIST SE OF
THE FRONT THROUGH MON. LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED S OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182120 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07N85W TO 15N94W...RESUMES
SW OF T.D. TRUDY FROM 15N102W TO 10N115W TO 12N128W TO 09N135W.
ITCZ FROM 09N135W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 87W...AND WITHIN 30
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W AND 116W.

...DISCUSSION...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRUDY NEAR 17.2N 98.5W 1006 MB AT 2100 UTC
OCT 18 MOVING NNE OR 025 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30
KT GUSTS 40 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CIRCULATION MOVING
FURTHER INLAND AND LOSING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 103W.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
PRODUCE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES.

A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N124W TO 26N131W. NW
OF THE FRONT SEAS ARE 7-8 FT IN NW SWELL. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA SUN
AND EXTEND FROM 30N135W TO 26N140W SUN AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL
RAPIPDILY BUILD TO 15-16 FT IN NW SWELL IN FAR NW PORTION BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH SUN EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT
AND MON AS THE SWELL PROPAGATES SE AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE AND THE
FRONT WEAKENS.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS
W OF 115W... PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N
AND W OF 113W. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SUN AS THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS INTO NW WATERS. A WEAK NARROW RIDGE WILL PERSIST SE OF
THE FRONT THROUGH MON. LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED S OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL


000
WTNT33 KNHC 182041
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
500 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

...GONZALO ACCELERATING RAPIDLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS A
HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.3N 60.0W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 36 MPH...57 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.0 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 36 MPH...57 KM/H. THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED MAINTAIN THIS DIRECTION OF MOTION TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE TO OR JUST SOUTH
OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ALTHOUGH WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT PASSES
CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY
LATE SUNDAY WHEN IT MOVES OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND BY EARLY SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



000
WTNT23 KNHC 182041
TCMAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
2100 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N  60.0W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT  31 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  60SE  40SW  30NW.
50 KT.......120NE 100SE  80SW  70NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 140SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..340NE 320SE 260SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N  60.0W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.2N  61.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 44.0N  54.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  30NW.
50 KT...110NE 150SE 100SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 210SE 170SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 49.6N  45.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 170SE 120SW   0NW.
34 KT...140NE 270SE 200SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 52.5N  31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 100SE 150SW   0NW.
34 KT...130NE 320SE 320SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 55.5N  17.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  40SE 180SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 360SE 430SW 480NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.3N  60.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTNT33 KNHC 182041
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
500 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

...GONZALO ACCELERATING RAPIDLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS A
HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.3N 60.0W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 36 MPH...57 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.0 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 36 MPH...57 KM/H. THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED MAINTAIN THIS DIRECTION OF MOTION TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE TO OR JUST SOUTH
OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ALTHOUGH WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT PASSES
CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY
LATE SUNDAY WHEN IT MOVES OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND BY EARLY SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTNT23 KNHC 182041
TCMAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
2100 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N  60.0W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT  31 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  60SE  40SW  30NW.
50 KT.......120NE 100SE  80SW  70NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 140SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..340NE 320SE 260SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N  60.0W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.2N  61.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 44.0N  54.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  30NW.
50 KT...110NE 150SE 100SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 210SE 170SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 49.6N  45.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 170SE 120SW   0NW.
34 KT...140NE 270SE 200SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 52.5N  31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 100SE 150SW   0NW.
34 KT...130NE 320SE 320SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 55.5N  17.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  40SE 180SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 360SE 430SW 480NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.3N  60.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





000
WTPZ35 KNHC 182031
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...TRUDY DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUT STILL DRENCHING
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 98.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRUDY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IT IS
ANTICIPATED THAT TRUDY WILL TRANSITION TO A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE
STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA




000
WTPZ35 KNHC 182031
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...TRUDY DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUT STILL DRENCHING
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 98.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRUDY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IT IS
ANTICIPATED THAT TRUDY WILL TRANSITION TO A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE
STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA




000
WTPZ35 KNHC 182031
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...TRUDY DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUT STILL DRENCHING
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 98.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRUDY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IT IS
ANTICIPATED THAT TRUDY WILL TRANSITION TO A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE
STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA




000
WTPZ35 KNHC 182031
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...TRUDY DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUT STILL DRENCHING
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 98.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRUDY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IT IS
ANTICIPATED THAT TRUDY WILL TRANSITION TO A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE
STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA




000
WTPZ25 KNHC 182030
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
2100 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  98.5W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  25 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  98.5W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N  98.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.3N  98.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.3N  98.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N  98.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA




000
WTPZ25 KNHC 182030
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
2100 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  98.5W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  25 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  98.5W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N  98.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.3N  98.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.3N  98.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N  98.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA




000
WTPZ25 KNHC 182030
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
2100 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  98.5W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  25 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  98.5W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N  98.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.3N  98.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.3N  98.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N  98.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA




000
WTPZ25 KNHC 182030
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
2100 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  98.5W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  25 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  98.5W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N  98.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.3N  98.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.3N  98.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N  98.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA




000
WTPA35 PHFO 182027
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
1100 AM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

...ANA PASSING SOUTH OF OAHU AND KAUAI COUNTY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 158.9W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 158.9 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. A FURTHER TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA
WILL PASS ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OAHU THIS AFTERNOON...
ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI TONIGHT...AND 105 MILES SOUTH OF
NIIHAU TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
ANA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU AND KAUAI
COUNTY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES THROUGH SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL
PERIODICALLY MOVE OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE






000
WTPA25 PHFO 182027
TCMCP5

HURRICANE ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
2100 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 158.9W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  20SE  10SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE  40SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..130NE  80SE  70SW 130NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 158.9W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 158.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.0N 159.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.4N 160.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.7N 162.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.2N 163.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.9N 165.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 25.0N 167.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 27.3N 168.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 158.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER WROE








000
WTPA25 PHFO 182027
TCMCP5

HURRICANE ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
2100 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 158.9W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  20SE  10SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE  40SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..130NE  80SE  70SW 130NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 158.9W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 158.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.0N 159.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.4N 160.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.7N 162.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.2N 163.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.9N 165.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 25.0N 167.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 27.3N 168.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 158.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER WROE







000
ACCA62 TJSJ 181905
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT SABADO 18 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN GONZALO...LOCALIZADO A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL NOR
NORESTE DE BERMUDA.

FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL NO SE ESPERA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR LANDSEA





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 181905
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT SABADO 18 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN GONZALO...LOCALIZADO A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL NOR
NORESTE DE BERMUDA.

FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL NO SE ESPERA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR LANDSEA




000
WTPA35 PHFO 181754
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  20A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
800 AM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

...ANA PASSING SOUTH OF OAHU AND KAUAI COUNTY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 158.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSE OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 158.5 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA
WILL PASS ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OAHU AND KAUAI COUNTY TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
ANA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU AND KAUAI
COUNTY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY AND SUNDAY. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES THROUGH SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL
PERIODICALLY MOVE OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD






000
WTPA35 PHFO 181754
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  20A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
800 AM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

...ANA PASSING SOUTH OF OAHU AND KAUAI COUNTY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 158.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSE OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 158.5 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA
WILL PASS ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OAHU AND KAUAI COUNTY TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
ANA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU AND KAUAI
COUNTY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY AND SUNDAY. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES THROUGH SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL
PERIODICALLY MOVE OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD







000
AXNT20 KNHC 181751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 38.2N 61.2W AT 18/1800 UTC OR
ABOUT ABOUT 391 NM N-NE OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 617 NM SSW OF CAPE
RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING N-NE AT 25 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80
KT WITH GUST TO 100 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
36N-43N BETWEEN 59W-65W. PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 15N35W
TO 3N39W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 2N-15N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES TO 7N20W TO 8N30W TO 6N36W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 5N40 AND EXTENDS TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 15W-18W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 25W-
28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
29N91W PRODUCING 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 91W-93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS FROM 25N-28N
BETWEEN 95W-98W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE
GULF DUE TO RIDGING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 21N AND
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE S OF 21N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND N
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 5-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 75W-79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
BELIZE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF CUBA FROM 19N-22N
BETWEEN 78W-86W DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W. EXPECT
THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AGAIN TO BE OVER THE ISLAND
SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N61W TO THE S
BAHAMAS AT 22N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH. A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N49W
MOVING NW AT 10 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO
17N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N24W TO 28N30W TO
28N40W TO 31N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 24N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE
CENTER FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 47W-52W. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SUN AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO
NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 181751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 38.2N 61.2W AT 18/1800 UTC OR
ABOUT ABOUT 391 NM N-NE OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 617 NM SSW OF CAPE
RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING N-NE AT 25 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80
KT WITH GUST TO 100 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
36N-43N BETWEEN 59W-65W. PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 15N35W
TO 3N39W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 2N-15N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES TO 7N20W TO 8N30W TO 6N36W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 5N40 AND EXTENDS TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 15W-18W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 25W-
28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
29N91W PRODUCING 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 91W-93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS FROM 25N-28N
BETWEEN 95W-98W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE
GULF DUE TO RIDGING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 21N AND
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE S OF 21N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND N
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 5-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 75W-79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
BELIZE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF CUBA FROM 19N-22N
BETWEEN 78W-86W DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W. EXPECT
THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AGAIN TO BE OVER THE ISLAND
SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N61W TO THE S
BAHAMAS AT 22N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH. A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N49W
MOVING NW AT 10 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO
17N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N24W TO 28N30W TO
28N40W TO 31N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 24N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE
CENTER FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 47W-52W. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SUN AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO
NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 181751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 38.2N 61.2W AT 18/1800 UTC OR
ABOUT ABOUT 391 NM N-NE OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 617 NM SSW OF CAPE
RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING N-NE AT 25 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80
KT WITH GUST TO 100 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
36N-43N BETWEEN 59W-65W. PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 15N35W
TO 3N39W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 2N-15N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES TO 7N20W TO 8N30W TO 6N36W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 5N40 AND EXTENDS TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 15W-18W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 25W-
28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
29N91W PRODUCING 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 91W-93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS FROM 25N-28N
BETWEEN 95W-98W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE
GULF DUE TO RIDGING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 21N AND
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE S OF 21N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND N
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 5-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 75W-79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
BELIZE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF CUBA FROM 19N-22N
BETWEEN 78W-86W DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W. EXPECT
THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AGAIN TO BE OVER THE ISLAND
SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N61W TO THE S
BAHAMAS AT 22N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH. A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N49W
MOVING NW AT 10 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO
17N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N24W TO 28N30W TO
28N40W TO 31N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 24N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE
CENTER FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 47W-52W. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SUN AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO
NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 181751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 38.2N 61.2W AT 18/1800 UTC OR
ABOUT ABOUT 391 NM N-NE OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 617 NM SSW OF CAPE
RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING N-NE AT 25 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80
KT WITH GUST TO 100 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
36N-43N BETWEEN 59W-65W. PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 15N35W
TO 3N39W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 2N-15N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES TO 7N20W TO 8N30W TO 6N36W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 5N40 AND EXTENDS TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 15W-18W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 25W-
28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
29N91W PRODUCING 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 91W-93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS FROM 25N-28N
BETWEEN 95W-98W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE
GULF DUE TO RIDGING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 21N AND
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE S OF 21N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND N
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 5-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 75W-79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
BELIZE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF CUBA FROM 19N-22N
BETWEEN 78W-86W DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W. EXPECT
THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AGAIN TO BE OVER THE ISLAND
SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N61W TO THE S
BAHAMAS AT 22N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH. A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N49W
MOVING NW AT 10 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO
17N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N24W TO 28N30W TO
28N40W TO 31N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 24N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE
CENTER FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 47W-52W. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SUN AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO
NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 181751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 38.2N 61.2W AT 18/1800 UTC OR
ABOUT ABOUT 391 NM N-NE OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 617 NM SSW OF CAPE
RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING N-NE AT 25 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80
KT WITH GUST TO 100 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
36N-43N BETWEEN 59W-65W. PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 15N35W
TO 3N39W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 2N-15N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES TO 7N20W TO 8N30W TO 6N36W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 5N40 AND EXTENDS TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 15W-18W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 25W-
28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
29N91W PRODUCING 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 91W-93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS FROM 25N-28N
BETWEEN 95W-98W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE
GULF DUE TO RIDGING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 21N AND
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE S OF 21N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND N
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 5-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 75W-79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
BELIZE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF CUBA FROM 19N-22N
BETWEEN 78W-86W DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W. EXPECT
THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AGAIN TO BE OVER THE ISLAND
SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N61W TO THE S
BAHAMAS AT 22N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH. A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N49W
MOVING NW AT 10 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO
17N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N24W TO 28N30W TO
28N40W TO 31N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 24N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE
CENTER FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 47W-52W. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SUN AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO
NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 181751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 38.2N 61.2W AT 18/1800 UTC OR
ABOUT ABOUT 391 NM N-NE OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 617 NM SSW OF CAPE
RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING N-NE AT 25 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80
KT WITH GUST TO 100 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
36N-43N BETWEEN 59W-65W. PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 15N35W
TO 3N39W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 2N-15N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES TO 7N20W TO 8N30W TO 6N36W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 5N40 AND EXTENDS TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 15W-18W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 25W-
28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
29N91W PRODUCING 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 91W-93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS FROM 25N-28N
BETWEEN 95W-98W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE
GULF DUE TO RIDGING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 21N AND
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE S OF 21N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND N
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 5-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 75W-79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
BELIZE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF CUBA FROM 19N-22N
BETWEEN 78W-86W DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W. EXPECT
THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AGAIN TO BE OVER THE ISLAND
SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N61W TO THE S
BAHAMAS AT 22N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH. A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N49W
MOVING NW AT 10 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO
17N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N24W TO 28N30W TO
28N40W TO 31N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 24N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE
CENTER FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 47W-52W. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SUN AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO
NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 181751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 38.2N 61.2W AT 18/1800 UTC OR
ABOUT ABOUT 391 NM N-NE OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 617 NM SSW OF CAPE
RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING N-NE AT 25 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80
KT WITH GUST TO 100 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
36N-43N BETWEEN 59W-65W. PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 15N35W
TO 3N39W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 2N-15N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES TO 7N20W TO 8N30W TO 6N36W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 5N40 AND EXTENDS TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 15W-18W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 25W-
28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
29N91W PRODUCING 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 91W-93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS FROM 25N-28N
BETWEEN 95W-98W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE
GULF DUE TO RIDGING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 21N AND
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE S OF 21N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND N
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 5-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 75W-79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
BELIZE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF CUBA FROM 19N-22N
BETWEEN 78W-86W DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W. EXPECT
THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AGAIN TO BE OVER THE ISLAND
SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N61W TO THE S
BAHAMAS AT 22N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH. A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N49W
MOVING NW AT 10 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO
17N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N24W TO 28N30W TO
28N40W TO 31N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 24N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE
CENTER FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 47W-52W. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SUN AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO
NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 181751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 38.2N 61.2W AT 18/1800 UTC OR
ABOUT ABOUT 391 NM N-NE OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 617 NM SSW OF CAPE
RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING N-NE AT 25 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80
KT WITH GUST TO 100 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
36N-43N BETWEEN 59W-65W. PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 15N35W
TO 3N39W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 2N-15N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES TO 7N20W TO 8N30W TO 6N36W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 5N40 AND EXTENDS TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 15W-18W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 25W-
28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
29N91W PRODUCING 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 91W-93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS FROM 25N-28N
BETWEEN 95W-98W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE
GULF DUE TO RIDGING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 21N AND
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE S OF 21N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND N
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 5-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 75W-79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
BELIZE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF CUBA FROM 19N-22N
BETWEEN 78W-86W DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W. EXPECT
THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AGAIN TO BE OVER THE ISLAND
SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N61W TO THE S
BAHAMAS AT 22N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH. A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N49W
MOVING NW AT 10 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO
17N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N24W TO 28N30W TO
28N40W TO 31N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 24N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE
CENTER FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 47W-52W. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SUN AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO
NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 181751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 38.2N 61.2W AT 18/1800 UTC OR
ABOUT ABOUT 391 NM N-NE OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 617 NM SSW OF CAPE
RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING N-NE AT 25 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80
KT WITH GUST TO 100 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
36N-43N BETWEEN 59W-65W. PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 15N35W
TO 3N39W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 2N-15N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES TO 7N20W TO 8N30W TO 6N36W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 5N40 AND EXTENDS TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 15W-18W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 25W-
28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
29N91W PRODUCING 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 91W-93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS FROM 25N-28N
BETWEEN 95W-98W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE
GULF DUE TO RIDGING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 21N AND
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE S OF 21N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND N
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 5-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 75W-79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
BELIZE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF CUBA FROM 19N-22N
BETWEEN 78W-86W DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W. EXPECT
THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AGAIN TO BE OVER THE ISLAND
SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N61W TO THE S
BAHAMAS AT 22N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH. A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N49W
MOVING NW AT 10 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO
17N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N24W TO 28N30W TO
28N40W TO 31N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 24N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE
CENTER FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 47W-52W. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SUN AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO
NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 181751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 38.2N 61.2W AT 18/1800 UTC OR
ABOUT ABOUT 391 NM N-NE OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 617 NM SSW OF CAPE
RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING N-NE AT 25 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80
KT WITH GUST TO 100 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
36N-43N BETWEEN 59W-65W. PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 15N35W
TO 3N39W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 2N-15N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES TO 7N20W TO 8N30W TO 6N36W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 5N40 AND EXTENDS TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 15W-18W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 25W-
28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
29N91W PRODUCING 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 91W-93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS FROM 25N-28N
BETWEEN 95W-98W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE
GULF DUE TO RIDGING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 21N AND
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE S OF 21N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND N
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 5-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 75W-79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
BELIZE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF CUBA FROM 19N-22N
BETWEEN 78W-86W DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W. EXPECT
THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AGAIN TO BE OVER THE ISLAND
SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N61W TO THE S
BAHAMAS AT 22N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH. A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N49W
MOVING NW AT 10 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO
17N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N24W TO 28N30W TO
28N40W TO 31N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 24N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE
CENTER FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 47W-52W. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SUN AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO
NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 181751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 38.2N 61.2W AT 18/1800 UTC OR
ABOUT ABOUT 391 NM N-NE OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 617 NM SSW OF CAPE
RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING N-NE AT 25 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80
KT WITH GUST TO 100 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
36N-43N BETWEEN 59W-65W. PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 15N35W
TO 3N39W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 2N-15N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES TO 7N20W TO 8N30W TO 6N36W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 5N40 AND EXTENDS TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 15W-18W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 25W-
28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
29N91W PRODUCING 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 91W-93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS FROM 25N-28N
BETWEEN 95W-98W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE
GULF DUE TO RIDGING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 21N AND
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE S OF 21N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND N
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 5-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 75W-79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
BELIZE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF CUBA FROM 19N-22N
BETWEEN 78W-86W DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W. EXPECT
THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AGAIN TO BE OVER THE ISLAND
SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N61W TO THE S
BAHAMAS AT 22N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH. A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N49W
MOVING NW AT 10 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO
17N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N24W TO 28N30W TO
28N40W TO 31N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 24N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE
CENTER FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 47W-52W. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SUN AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO
NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 181751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 38.2N 61.2W AT 18/1800 UTC OR
ABOUT ABOUT 391 NM N-NE OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 617 NM SSW OF CAPE
RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING N-NE AT 25 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80
KT WITH GUST TO 100 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
36N-43N BETWEEN 59W-65W. PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 15N35W
TO 3N39W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 2N-15N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES TO 7N20W TO 8N30W TO 6N36W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 5N40 AND EXTENDS TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 15W-18W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 25W-
28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
29N91W PRODUCING 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 91W-93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS FROM 25N-28N
BETWEEN 95W-98W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE
GULF DUE TO RIDGING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 21N AND
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE S OF 21N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND N
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 5-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 75W-79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
BELIZE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF CUBA FROM 19N-22N
BETWEEN 78W-86W DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W. EXPECT
THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AGAIN TO BE OVER THE ISLAND
SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N61W TO THE S
BAHAMAS AT 22N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH. A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N49W
MOVING NW AT 10 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO
17N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N24W TO 28N30W TO
28N40W TO 31N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 24N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE
CENTER FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 47W-52W. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SUN AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO
NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 181751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 38.2N 61.2W AT 18/1800 UTC OR
ABOUT ABOUT 391 NM N-NE OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 617 NM SSW OF CAPE
RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING N-NE AT 25 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80
KT WITH GUST TO 100 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
36N-43N BETWEEN 59W-65W. PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 15N35W
TO 3N39W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 2N-15N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES TO 7N20W TO 8N30W TO 6N36W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 5N40 AND EXTENDS TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 15W-18W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 25W-
28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
29N91W PRODUCING 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 91W-93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS FROM 25N-28N
BETWEEN 95W-98W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE
GULF DUE TO RIDGING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 21N AND
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE S OF 21N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND N
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 5-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 75W-79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
BELIZE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF CUBA FROM 19N-22N
BETWEEN 78W-86W DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W. EXPECT
THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AGAIN TO BE OVER THE ISLAND
SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N61W TO THE S
BAHAMAS AT 22N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH. A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N49W
MOVING NW AT 10 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO
17N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N24W TO 28N30W TO
28N40W TO 31N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 24N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE
CENTER FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 47W-52W. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SUN AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO
NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 181751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 38.2N 61.2W AT 18/1800 UTC OR
ABOUT ABOUT 391 NM N-NE OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 617 NM SSW OF CAPE
RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING N-NE AT 25 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80
KT WITH GUST TO 100 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
36N-43N BETWEEN 59W-65W. PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 15N35W
TO 3N39W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 2N-15N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES TO 7N20W TO 8N30W TO 6N36W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 5N40 AND EXTENDS TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 15W-18W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 25W-
28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
29N91W PRODUCING 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 91W-93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS FROM 25N-28N
BETWEEN 95W-98W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE
GULF DUE TO RIDGING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 21N AND
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE S OF 21N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND N
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 5-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 75W-79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
BELIZE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF CUBA FROM 19N-22N
BETWEEN 78W-86W DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W. EXPECT
THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AGAIN TO BE OVER THE ISLAND
SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N61W TO THE S
BAHAMAS AT 22N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH. A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N49W
MOVING NW AT 10 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO
17N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N24W TO 28N30W TO
28N40W TO 31N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 24N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE
CENTER FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 47W-52W. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SUN AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO
NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 181751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 38.2N 61.2W AT 18/1800 UTC OR
ABOUT ABOUT 391 NM N-NE OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 617 NM SSW OF CAPE
RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING N-NE AT 25 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80
KT WITH GUST TO 100 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
36N-43N BETWEEN 59W-65W. PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 15N35W
TO 3N39W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 2N-15N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES TO 7N20W TO 8N30W TO 6N36W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 5N40 AND EXTENDS TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 15W-18W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 25W-
28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
29N91W PRODUCING 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 91W-93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS FROM 25N-28N
BETWEEN 95W-98W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE
GULF DUE TO RIDGING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 21N AND
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE S OF 21N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND N
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 5-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 75W-79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
BELIZE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF CUBA FROM 19N-22N
BETWEEN 78W-86W DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W. EXPECT
THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AGAIN TO BE OVER THE ISLAND
SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N61W TO THE S
BAHAMAS AT 22N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH. A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N49W
MOVING NW AT 10 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO
17N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N24W TO 28N30W TO
28N40W TO 31N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 24N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE
CENTER FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 47W-52W. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SUN AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO
NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 181751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 38.2N 61.2W AT 18/1800 UTC OR
ABOUT ABOUT 391 NM N-NE OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 617 NM SSW OF CAPE
RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING N-NE AT 25 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80
KT WITH GUST TO 100 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
36N-43N BETWEEN 59W-65W. PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 15N35W
TO 3N39W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 2N-15N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES TO 7N20W TO 8N30W TO 6N36W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 5N40 AND EXTENDS TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 15W-18W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 25W-
28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
29N91W PRODUCING 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 91W-93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS FROM 25N-28N
BETWEEN 95W-98W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE
GULF DUE TO RIDGING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 21N AND
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE S OF 21N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND N
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 5-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 75W-79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
BELIZE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF CUBA FROM 19N-22N
BETWEEN 78W-86W DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W. EXPECT
THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AGAIN TO BE OVER THE ISLAND
SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N61W TO THE S
BAHAMAS AT 22N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH. A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N49W
MOVING NW AT 10 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO
17N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N24W TO 28N30W TO
28N40W TO 31N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 24N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE
CENTER FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 47W-52W. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SUN AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO
NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
ACPN50 PHFO 181745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE ANA...LOCATED 139 MILES WEST OF
SOUTH POINT HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPA35
PHFO.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

$$







000
ACPN50 PHFO 181745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE ANA...LOCATED 139 MILES WEST OF
SOUTH POINT HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPA35
PHFO.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

$$








000
ACPN50 PHFO 181745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE ANA...LOCATED 139 MILES WEST OF
SOUTH POINT HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPA35
PHFO.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

$$







000
ACPN50 PHFO 181745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE ANA...LOCATED 139 MILES WEST OF
SOUTH POINT HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPA35
PHFO.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

$$







000
ACPN50 PHFO 181745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE ANA...LOCATED 139 MILES WEST OF
SOUTH POINT HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPA35
PHFO.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

$$







000
ACPN50 PHFO 181745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE ANA...LOCATED 139 MILES WEST OF
SOUTH POINT HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPA35
PHFO.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

$$







000
WTNT33 KNHC 181742
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  25A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
200 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

...GONZALO CONTINUING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.2N 61.2W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 29 MPH...46 KM/H.  THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT
DAY AND SHOULD PASS CLOSE OR JUST SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GONZALO
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT A
DAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA



000
WTNT33 KNHC 181742
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  25A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
200 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

...GONZALO CONTINUING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.2N 61.2W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 29 MPH...46 KM/H.  THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT
DAY AND SHOULD PASS CLOSE OR JUST SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GONZALO
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT A
DAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA



000
WTNT33 KNHC 181742
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  25A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
200 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

...GONZALO CONTINUING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.2N 61.2W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 29 MPH...46 KM/H.  THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT
DAY AND SHOULD PASS CLOSE OR JUST SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GONZALO
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT A
DAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA




000
WTNT33 KNHC 181742
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  25A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
200 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

...GONZALO CONTINUING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.2N 61.2W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 29 MPH...46 KM/H.  THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT
DAY AND SHOULD PASS CLOSE OR JUST SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GONZALO
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT A
DAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA




000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181737
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on weakening
Tropical Storm Trudy, located less of a hundred miles east of
Acapulco.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Trudy are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories are issued
under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181737
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on weakening
Tropical Storm Trudy, located less of a hundred miles east of
Acapulco.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Trudy are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories are issued
under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181737
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on weakening
Tropical Storm Trudy, located less of a hundred miles east of
Acapulco.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Trudy are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories are issued
under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181737
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on weakening
Tropical Storm Trudy, located less of a hundred miles east of
Acapulco.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Trudy are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories are issued
under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
WTPZ35 KNHC 181734
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
1100 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...TRUDY BARELY A TROPICAL STORM BUT DRENCHING PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 98.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS
LOCATED INLAND MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8
WEST. TRUDY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED TODAY OR SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA OVER
WATER. TRUDY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF
THE WARNING AREA...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TODAY.

RAINFALL...TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE
STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS WAVES GENERATED BY TRUDY ARE AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...LIKELY CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ35 KNHC 181734
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
1100 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...TRUDY BARELY A TROPICAL STORM BUT DRENCHING PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 98.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS
LOCATED INLAND MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8
WEST. TRUDY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED TODAY OR SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA OVER
WATER. TRUDY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF
THE WARNING AREA...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TODAY.

RAINFALL...TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE
STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS WAVES GENERATED BY TRUDY ARE AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...LIKELY CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
ABNT20 KNHC 181732
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gonzalo, located a few hundred miles north-northeast of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Landsea



000
ABNT20 KNHC 181732
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gonzalo, located a few hundred miles north-northeast of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Landsea



000
ABNT20 KNHC 181732
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gonzalo, located a few hundred miles north-northeast of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Landsea



000
ABNT20 KNHC 181732
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gonzalo, located a few hundred miles north-northeast of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Landsea



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181602 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 98.8W 1002 MB AT
1500 UTC OCT 18...OR ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO...MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40
KT GUSTS TO 50 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE
STRUCTURE IS BECOMING DISRUPTED OVER THE TERRAIN OF MEXICO AS IT
MOVES INLAND MEXICO. THE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 96W AND 103W...AND ALSO
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 13N105W TO 14N103W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 17N103W. TRUDY IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS NEAR
17.5N 98.8W WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 25 KT GUSTS TO 35 KT.
HOWEVER....VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THIS AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
FLASH FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL SW MEXICO
FROM OAXACA TO MICHOACAN THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE  REMNANT LOW
MEANDER JUST INLAND OF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 10N88W NW TO
15N92W...WHERE IT HAS FRACTURED FROM TROPICAL STORM TRUDY...THEN
RESUMES FROM 13N107W TO 11N118W TO 11N20W TO 09N135W...WHERE IT
ENDS. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N135W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE FROM 05N83W TO 05N87W TO 05N92W....WITHIN 120 NM OF
TROUGH BETWEEN 106W AND 109W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 127W AND 130W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF
ITCZ BETWEEN 133W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 26N132W EARLY
THIS MORNING. NW OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH 8
TO 10 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
BY THIS EVENING. A NEW COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W. NW OF FRONT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NW
20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-10 FT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN...AND IS
FORECAST TO DO SO AS IT APPROACHES 30N127W TO 26N132W TO
24N140W. NW OF THIS FRONT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS QUICKLY RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 9-16 FT IN NW SWELL.


ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES NEAR
25N122W...EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS W OF 110W...
PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF 113W.
THE HIGH WILL COLLAPSE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NEW
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...A WEAK AND NARROW
RIDGE WILL PERSIST AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN MARINE
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181602 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 98.8W 1002 MB AT
1500 UTC OCT 18...OR ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO...MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40
KT GUSTS TO 50 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE
STRUCTURE IS BECOMING DISRUPTED OVER THE TERRAIN OF MEXICO AS IT
MOVES INLAND MEXICO. THE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 96W AND 103W...AND ALSO
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 13N105W TO 14N103W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 17N103W. TRUDY IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS NEAR
17.5N 98.8W WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 25 KT GUSTS TO 35 KT.
HOWEVER....VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THIS AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
FLASH FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL SW MEXICO
FROM OAXACA TO MICHOACAN THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE  REMNANT LOW
MEANDER JUST INLAND OF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 10N88W NW TO
15N92W...WHERE IT HAS FRACTURED FROM TROPICAL STORM TRUDY...THEN
RESUMES FROM 13N107W TO 11N118W TO 11N20W TO 09N135W...WHERE IT
ENDS. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N135W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE FROM 05N83W TO 05N87W TO 05N92W....WITHIN 120 NM OF
TROUGH BETWEEN 106W AND 109W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 127W AND 130W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF
ITCZ BETWEEN 133W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 26N132W EARLY
THIS MORNING. NW OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH 8
TO 10 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
BY THIS EVENING. A NEW COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W. NW OF FRONT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NW
20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-10 FT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN...AND IS
FORECAST TO DO SO AS IT APPROACHES 30N127W TO 26N132W TO
24N140W. NW OF THIS FRONT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS QUICKLY RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 9-16 FT IN NW SWELL.


ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES NEAR
25N122W...EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS W OF 110W...
PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF 113W.
THE HIGH WILL COLLAPSE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NEW
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...A WEAK AND NARROW
RIDGE WILL PERSIST AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN MARINE
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181602 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 98.8W 1002 MB AT
1500 UTC OCT 18...OR ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO...MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40
KT GUSTS TO 50 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE
STRUCTURE IS BECOMING DISRUPTED OVER THE TERRAIN OF MEXICO AS IT
MOVES INLAND MEXICO. THE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 96W AND 103W...AND ALSO
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 13N105W TO 14N103W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 17N103W. TRUDY IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS NEAR
17.5N 98.8W WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 25 KT GUSTS TO 35 KT.
HOWEVER....VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THIS AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
FLASH FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL SW MEXICO
FROM OAXACA TO MICHOACAN THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE  REMNANT LOW
MEANDER JUST INLAND OF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 10N88W NW TO
15N92W...WHERE IT HAS FRACTURED FROM TROPICAL STORM TRUDY...THEN
RESUMES FROM 13N107W TO 11N118W TO 11N20W TO 09N135W...WHERE IT
ENDS. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N135W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE FROM 05N83W TO 05N87W TO 05N92W....WITHIN 120 NM OF
TROUGH BETWEEN 106W AND 109W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 127W AND 130W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF
ITCZ BETWEEN 133W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 26N132W EARLY
THIS MORNING. NW OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH 8
TO 10 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
BY THIS EVENING. A NEW COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W. NW OF FRONT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NW
20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-10 FT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN...AND IS
FORECAST TO DO SO AS IT APPROACHES 30N127W TO 26N132W TO
24N140W. NW OF THIS FRONT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS QUICKLY RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 9-16 FT IN NW SWELL.


ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES NEAR
25N122W...EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS W OF 110W...
PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF 113W.
THE HIGH WILL COLLAPSE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NEW
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...A WEAK AND NARROW
RIDGE WILL PERSIST AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN MARINE
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181602 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 98.8W 1002 MB AT
1500 UTC OCT 18...OR ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO...MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40
KT GUSTS TO 50 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE
STRUCTURE IS BECOMING DISRUPTED OVER THE TERRAIN OF MEXICO AS IT
MOVES INLAND MEXICO. THE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 96W AND 103W...AND ALSO
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 13N105W TO 14N103W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 17N103W. TRUDY IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS NEAR
17.5N 98.8W WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 25 KT GUSTS TO 35 KT.
HOWEVER....VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THIS AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
FLASH FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL SW MEXICO
FROM OAXACA TO MICHOACAN THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE  REMNANT LOW
MEANDER JUST INLAND OF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 10N88W NW TO
15N92W...WHERE IT HAS FRACTURED FROM TROPICAL STORM TRUDY...THEN
RESUMES FROM 13N107W TO 11N118W TO 11N20W TO 09N135W...WHERE IT
ENDS. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N135W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE FROM 05N83W TO 05N87W TO 05N92W....WITHIN 120 NM OF
TROUGH BETWEEN 106W AND 109W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 127W AND 130W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF
ITCZ BETWEEN 133W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 26N132W EARLY
THIS MORNING. NW OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH 8
TO 10 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
BY THIS EVENING. A NEW COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W. NW OF FRONT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NW
20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-10 FT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN...AND IS
FORECAST TO DO SO AS IT APPROACHES 30N127W TO 26N132W TO
24N140W. NW OF THIS FRONT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS QUICKLY RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 9-16 FT IN NW SWELL.


ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES NEAR
25N122W...EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS W OF 110W...
PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF 113W.
THE HIGH WILL COLLAPSE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NEW
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...A WEAK AND NARROW
RIDGE WILL PERSIST AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN MARINE
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181602
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR
17.2N 98.8W 1002 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 18...OR ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM
ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS TO 50 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE STRUCTURE IS BECOMING DISRUPTED OVER THE TERRAIN
OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES INLAND MEXICO. THE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 96W AND
103W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 13N105W TO
14N103W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 17N103W.
TRUDY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 24
HOURS NEAR 17.5N 98.8W WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 25 KT GUSTS TO 35
KT. HOWEVER....VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL LEAD TO
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES.
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL
SW MEXICO FROM OAXACA TO MICHOACAN THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE
REMNANT LOW MEANDER JUST INLAND OF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 10N88W NW TO
15N92W...WHERE IT HAS FRACTURED FROM TROPICAL STORM TRUDY...THEN
RESUMES FROM 13N107W TO 11N118W TO 11N20W TO 09N135W...WHERE IT
ENDS. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N135W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE FROM 05N83W TO 05N87W TO 05N92W....WITHIN 120 NM OF
TROUGH BETWEEN 106W AND 109W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 127W AND 130W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF
ITCZ BETWEEN 133W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 26N132W EARLY
THIS MORNING. NW OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH 8
TO 10 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
BY THIS EVENING. A NEW COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W. NW OF FRONT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NW
20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-10 FT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN...AND IS
FORECAST TO DO SO AS IT APPROACHES 30N127W TO 26N132W TO
24N140W. NW OF THIS FRONT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS QUICKLY RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 9-16 FT IN NW SWELL.


ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES NEAR
25N122W...EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS W OF 110W...
PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF 113W.
THE HIGH WILL COLLAPSE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NEW
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...A WEAK AND NARROW
RIDGE WILL PERSIST AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN MARINE
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181602
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR
17.2N 98.8W 1002 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 18...OR ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM
ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS TO 50 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE STRUCTURE IS BECOMING DISRUPTED OVER THE TERRAIN
OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES INLAND MEXICO. THE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 96W AND
103W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 13N105W TO
14N103W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 17N103W.
TRUDY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 24
HOURS NEAR 17.5N 98.8W WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 25 KT GUSTS TO 35
KT. HOWEVER....VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL LEAD TO
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES.
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL
SW MEXICO FROM OAXACA TO MICHOACAN THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE
REMNANT LOW MEANDER JUST INLAND OF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 10N88W NW TO
15N92W...WHERE IT HAS FRACTURED FROM TROPICAL STORM TRUDY...THEN
RESUMES FROM 13N107W TO 11N118W TO 11N20W TO 09N135W...WHERE IT
ENDS. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N135W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE FROM 05N83W TO 05N87W TO 05N92W....WITHIN 120 NM OF
TROUGH BETWEEN 106W AND 109W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 127W AND 130W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF
ITCZ BETWEEN 133W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 26N132W EARLY
THIS MORNING. NW OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH 8
TO 10 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
BY THIS EVENING. A NEW COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W. NW OF FRONT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NW
20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-10 FT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN...AND IS
FORECAST TO DO SO AS IT APPROACHES 30N127W TO 26N132W TO
24N140W. NW OF THIS FRONT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS QUICKLY RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 9-16 FT IN NW SWELL.


ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES NEAR
25N122W...EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS W OF 110W...
PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF 113W.
THE HIGH WILL COLLAPSE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NEW
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...A WEAK AND NARROW
RIDGE WILL PERSIST AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN MARINE
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181602
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR
17.2N 98.8W 1002 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 18...OR ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM
ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS TO 50 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE STRUCTURE IS BECOMING DISRUPTED OVER THE TERRAIN
OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES INLAND MEXICO. THE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 96W AND
103W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 13N105W TO
14N103W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 17N103W.
TRUDY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 24
HOURS NEAR 17.5N 98.8W WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 25 KT GUSTS TO 35
KT. HOWEVER....VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL LEAD TO
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES.
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL
SW MEXICO FROM OAXACA TO MICHOACAN THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE
REMNANT LOW MEANDER JUST INLAND OF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 10N88W NW TO
15N92W...WHERE IT HAS FRACTURED FROM TROPICAL STORM TRUDY...THEN
RESUMES FROM 13N107W TO 11N118W TO 11N20W TO 09N135W...WHERE IT
ENDS. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N135W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE FROM 05N83W TO 05N87W TO 05N92W....WITHIN 120 NM OF
TROUGH BETWEEN 106W AND 109W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 127W AND 130W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF
ITCZ BETWEEN 133W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 26N132W EARLY
THIS MORNING. NW OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH 8
TO 10 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
BY THIS EVENING. A NEW COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W. NW OF FRONT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NW
20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-10 FT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN...AND IS
FORECAST TO DO SO AS IT APPROACHES 30N127W TO 26N132W TO
24N140W. NW OF THIS FRONT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS QUICKLY RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 9-16 FT IN NW SWELL.


ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES NEAR
25N122W...EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS W OF 110W...
PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF 113W.
THE HIGH WILL COLLAPSE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NEW
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...A WEAK AND NARROW
RIDGE WILL PERSIST AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN MARINE
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181602
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR
17.2N 98.8W 1002 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 18...OR ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM
ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS TO 50 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE STRUCTURE IS BECOMING DISRUPTED OVER THE TERRAIN
OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES INLAND MEXICO. THE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 96W AND
103W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 13N105W TO
14N103W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 17N103W.
TRUDY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 24
HOURS NEAR 17.5N 98.8W WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 25 KT GUSTS TO 35
KT. HOWEVER....VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL LEAD TO
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES.
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL
SW MEXICO FROM OAXACA TO MICHOACAN THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE
REMNANT LOW MEANDER JUST INLAND OF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 10N88W NW TO
15N92W...WHERE IT HAS FRACTURED FROM TROPICAL STORM TRUDY...THEN
RESUMES FROM 13N107W TO 11N118W TO 11N20W TO 09N135W...WHERE IT
ENDS. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N135W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE FROM 05N83W TO 05N87W TO 05N92W....WITHIN 120 NM OF
TROUGH BETWEEN 106W AND 109W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 127W AND 130W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF
ITCZ BETWEEN 133W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 26N132W EARLY
THIS MORNING. NW OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH 8
TO 10 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
BY THIS EVENING. A NEW COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W. NW OF FRONT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NW
20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-10 FT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN...AND IS
FORECAST TO DO SO AS IT APPROACHES 30N127W TO 26N132W TO
24N140W. NW OF THIS FRONT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS QUICKLY RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 9-16 FT IN NW SWELL.


ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES NEAR
25N122W...EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS W OF 110W...
PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF 113W.
THE HIGH WILL COLLAPSE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NEW
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...A WEAK AND NARROW
RIDGE WILL PERSIST AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN MARINE
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181602 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 98.8W 1002 MB AT
1500 UTC OCT 18...OR ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO...MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40
KT GUSTS TO 50 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE
STRUCTURE IS BECOMING DISRUPTED OVER THE TERRAIN OF MEXICO AS IT
MOVES INLAND MEXICO. THE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 96W AND 103W...AND ALSO
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 13N105W TO 14N103W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 17N103W. TRUDY IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS NEAR
17.5N 98.8W WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 25 KT GUSTS TO 35 KT.
HOWEVER....VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THIS AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
FLASH FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL SW MEXICO
FROM OAXACA TO MICHOACAN THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE  REMNANT LOW
MEANDER JUST INLAND OF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 10N88W NW TO
15N92W...WHERE IT HAS FRACTURED FROM TROPICAL STORM TRUDY...THEN
RESUMES FROM 13N107W TO 11N118W TO 11N20W TO 09N135W...WHERE IT
ENDS. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N135W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE FROM 05N83W TO 05N87W TO 05N92W....WITHIN 120 NM OF
TROUGH BETWEEN 106W AND 109W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 127W AND 130W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF
ITCZ BETWEEN 133W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 26N132W EARLY
THIS MORNING. NW OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH 8
TO 10 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
BY THIS EVENING. A NEW COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W. NW OF FRONT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NW
20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-10 FT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN...AND IS
FORECAST TO DO SO AS IT APPROACHES 30N127W TO 26N132W TO
24N140W. NW OF THIS FRONT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS QUICKLY RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 9-16 FT IN NW SWELL.


ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES NEAR
25N122W...EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS W OF 110W...
PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF 113W.
THE HIGH WILL COLLAPSE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NEW
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...A WEAK AND NARROW
RIDGE WILL PERSIST AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN MARINE
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181602 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 98.8W 1002 MB AT
1500 UTC OCT 18...OR ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO...MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40
KT GUSTS TO 50 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE
STRUCTURE IS BECOMING DISRUPTED OVER THE TERRAIN OF MEXICO AS IT
MOVES INLAND MEXICO. THE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 96W AND 103W...AND ALSO
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 13N105W TO 14N103W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 17N103W. TRUDY IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS NEAR
17.5N 98.8W WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 25 KT GUSTS TO 35 KT.
HOWEVER....VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THIS AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
FLASH FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL SW MEXICO
FROM OAXACA TO MICHOACAN THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE  REMNANT LOW
MEANDER JUST INLAND OF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 10N88W NW TO
15N92W...WHERE IT HAS FRACTURED FROM TROPICAL STORM TRUDY...THEN
RESUMES FROM 13N107W TO 11N118W TO 11N20W TO 09N135W...WHERE IT
ENDS. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N135W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE FROM 05N83W TO 05N87W TO 05N92W....WITHIN 120 NM OF
TROUGH BETWEEN 106W AND 109W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 127W AND 130W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF
ITCZ BETWEEN 133W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 26N132W EARLY
THIS MORNING. NW OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH 8
TO 10 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
BY THIS EVENING. A NEW COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W. NW OF FRONT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NW
20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-10 FT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN...AND IS
FORECAST TO DO SO AS IT APPROACHES 30N127W TO 26N132W TO
24N140W. NW OF THIS FRONT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS QUICKLY RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 9-16 FT IN NW SWELL.


ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES NEAR
25N122W...EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS W OF 110W...
PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF 113W.
THE HIGH WILL COLLAPSE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NEW
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...A WEAK AND NARROW
RIDGE WILL PERSIST AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN MARINE
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181602 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 98.8W 1002 MB AT
1500 UTC OCT 18...OR ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO...MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40
KT GUSTS TO 50 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE
STRUCTURE IS BECOMING DISRUPTED OVER THE TERRAIN OF MEXICO AS IT
MOVES INLAND MEXICO. THE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 96W AND 103W...AND ALSO
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 13N105W TO 14N103W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 17N103W. TRUDY IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS NEAR
17.5N 98.8W WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 25 KT GUSTS TO 35 KT.
HOWEVER....VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THIS AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
FLASH FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL SW MEXICO
FROM OAXACA TO MICHOACAN THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE  REMNANT LOW
MEANDER JUST INLAND OF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 10N88W NW TO
15N92W...WHERE IT HAS FRACTURED FROM TROPICAL STORM TRUDY...THEN
RESUMES FROM 13N107W TO 11N118W TO 11N20W TO 09N135W...WHERE IT
ENDS. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N135W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE FROM 05N83W TO 05N87W TO 05N92W....WITHIN 120 NM OF
TROUGH BETWEEN 106W AND 109W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 127W AND 130W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF
ITCZ BETWEEN 133W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 26N132W EARLY
THIS MORNING. NW OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH 8
TO 10 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
BY THIS EVENING. A NEW COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W. NW OF FRONT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NW
20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-10 FT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN...AND IS
FORECAST TO DO SO AS IT APPROACHES 30N127W TO 26N132W TO
24N140W. NW OF THIS FRONT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS QUICKLY RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 9-16 FT IN NW SWELL.


ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES NEAR
25N122W...EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS W OF 110W...
PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF 113W.
THE HIGH WILL COLLAPSE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NEW
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...A WEAK AND NARROW
RIDGE WILL PERSIST AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN MARINE
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181602 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 98.8W 1002 MB AT
1500 UTC OCT 18...OR ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO...MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40
KT GUSTS TO 50 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE
STRUCTURE IS BECOMING DISRUPTED OVER THE TERRAIN OF MEXICO AS IT
MOVES INLAND MEXICO. THE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 96W AND 103W...AND ALSO
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 13N105W TO 14N103W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 17N103W. TRUDY IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS NEAR
17.5N 98.8W WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 25 KT GUSTS TO 35 KT.
HOWEVER....VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THIS AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
FLASH FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL SW MEXICO
FROM OAXACA TO MICHOACAN THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE  REMNANT LOW
MEANDER JUST INLAND OF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 10N88W NW TO
15N92W...WHERE IT HAS FRACTURED FROM TROPICAL STORM TRUDY...THEN
RESUMES FROM 13N107W TO 11N118W TO 11N20W TO 09N135W...WHERE IT
ENDS. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N135W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE FROM 05N83W TO 05N87W TO 05N92W....WITHIN 120 NM OF
TROUGH BETWEEN 106W AND 109W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 127W AND 130W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF
ITCZ BETWEEN 133W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 26N132W EARLY
THIS MORNING. NW OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH 8
TO 10 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
BY THIS EVENING. A NEW COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W. NW OF FRONT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NW
20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-10 FT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN...AND IS
FORECAST TO DO SO AS IT APPROACHES 30N127W TO 26N132W TO
24N140W. NW OF THIS FRONT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS QUICKLY RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 9-16 FT IN NW SWELL.


ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES NEAR
25N122W...EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS W OF 110W...
PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF 113W.
THE HIGH WILL COLLAPSE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NEW
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...A WEAK AND NARROW
RIDGE WILL PERSIST AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN MARINE
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181602
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR
17.2N 98.8W 1002 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 18...OR ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM
ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS TO 50 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE STRUCTURE IS BECOMING DISRUPTED OVER THE TERRAIN
OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES INLAND MEXICO. THE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 96W AND
103W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 13N105W TO
14N103W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 17N103W.
TRUDY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 24
HOURS NEAR 17.5N 98.8W WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 25 KT GUSTS TO 35
KT. HOWEVER....VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL LEAD TO
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES.
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL
SW MEXICO FROM OAXACA TO MICHOACAN THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE
REMNANT LOW MEANDER JUST INLAND OF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 10N88W NW TO
15N92W...WHERE IT HAS FRACTURED FROM TROPICAL STORM TRUDY...THEN
RESUMES FROM 13N107W TO 11N118W TO 11N20W TO 09N135W...WHERE IT
ENDS. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N135W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE FROM 05N83W TO 05N87W TO 05N92W....WITHIN 120 NM OF
TROUGH BETWEEN 106W AND 109W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 127W AND 130W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF
ITCZ BETWEEN 133W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 26N132W EARLY
THIS MORNING. NW OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH 8
TO 10 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
BY THIS EVENING. A NEW COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W. NW OF FRONT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NW
20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-10 FT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN...AND IS
FORECAST TO DO SO AS IT APPROACHES 30N127W TO 26N132W TO
24N140W. NW OF THIS FRONT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS QUICKLY RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 9-16 FT IN NW SWELL.


ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES NEAR
25N122W...EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS W OF 110W...
PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF 113W.
THE HIGH WILL COLLAPSE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NEW
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...A WEAK AND NARROW
RIDGE WILL PERSIST AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN MARINE
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181602
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR
17.2N 98.8W 1002 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 18...OR ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM
ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS TO 50 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE STRUCTURE IS BECOMING DISRUPTED OVER THE TERRAIN
OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES INLAND MEXICO. THE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 96W AND
103W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 13N105W TO
14N103W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 17N103W.
TRUDY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 24
HOURS NEAR 17.5N 98.8W WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 25 KT GUSTS TO 35
KT. HOWEVER....VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL LEAD TO
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES.
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL
SW MEXICO FROM OAXACA TO MICHOACAN THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE
REMNANT LOW MEANDER JUST INLAND OF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 10N88W NW TO
15N92W...WHERE IT HAS FRACTURED FROM TROPICAL STORM TRUDY...THEN
RESUMES FROM 13N107W TO 11N118W TO 11N20W TO 09N135W...WHERE IT
ENDS. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N135W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE FROM 05N83W TO 05N87W TO 05N92W....WITHIN 120 NM OF
TROUGH BETWEEN 106W AND 109W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 127W AND 130W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF
ITCZ BETWEEN 133W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 26N132W EARLY
THIS MORNING. NW OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH 8
TO 10 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
BY THIS EVENING. A NEW COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W. NW OF FRONT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NW
20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-10 FT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN...AND IS
FORECAST TO DO SO AS IT APPROACHES 30N127W TO 26N132W TO
24N140W. NW OF THIS FRONT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS QUICKLY RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 9-16 FT IN NW SWELL.


ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES NEAR
25N122W...EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS W OF 110W...
PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF 113W.
THE HIGH WILL COLLAPSE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NEW
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...A WEAK AND NARROW
RIDGE WILL PERSIST AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN MARINE
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181602
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR
17.2N 98.8W 1002 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 18...OR ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM
ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS TO 50 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE STRUCTURE IS BECOMING DISRUPTED OVER THE TERRAIN
OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES INLAND MEXICO. THE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 96W AND
103W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 13N105W TO
14N103W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 17N103W.
TRUDY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 24
HOURS NEAR 17.5N 98.8W WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 25 KT GUSTS TO 35
KT. HOWEVER....VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL LEAD TO
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES.
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL
SW MEXICO FROM OAXACA TO MICHOACAN THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE
REMNANT LOW MEANDER JUST INLAND OF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 10N88W NW TO
15N92W...WHERE IT HAS FRACTURED FROM TROPICAL STORM TRUDY...THEN
RESUMES FROM 13N107W TO 11N118W TO 11N20W TO 09N135W...WHERE IT
ENDS. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N135W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE FROM 05N83W TO 05N87W TO 05N92W....WITHIN 120 NM OF
TROUGH BETWEEN 106W AND 109W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 127W AND 130W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF
ITCZ BETWEEN 133W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 26N132W EARLY
THIS MORNING. NW OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH 8
TO 10 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
BY THIS EVENING. A NEW COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W. NW OF FRONT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NW
20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-10 FT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN...AND IS
FORECAST TO DO SO AS IT APPROACHES 30N127W TO 26N132W TO
24N140W. NW OF THIS FRONT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS QUICKLY RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 9-16 FT IN NW SWELL.


ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES NEAR
25N122W...EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS W OF 110W...
PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF 113W.
THE HIGH WILL COLLAPSE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NEW
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...A WEAK AND NARROW
RIDGE WILL PERSIST AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN MARINE
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181602
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR
17.2N 98.8W 1002 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 18...OR ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM
ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS TO 50 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE STRUCTURE IS BECOMING DISRUPTED OVER THE TERRAIN
OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES INLAND MEXICO. THE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 96W AND
103W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 13N105W TO
14N103W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 17N103W.
TRUDY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 24
HOURS NEAR 17.5N 98.8W WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 25 KT GUSTS TO 35
KT. HOWEVER....VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL LEAD TO
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES.
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL
SW MEXICO FROM OAXACA TO MICHOACAN THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE
REMNANT LOW MEANDER JUST INLAND OF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 10N88W NW TO
15N92W...WHERE IT HAS FRACTURED FROM TROPICAL STORM TRUDY...THEN
RESUMES FROM 13N107W TO 11N118W TO 11N20W TO 09N135W...WHERE IT
ENDS. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N135W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE FROM 05N83W TO 05N87W TO 05N92W....WITHIN 120 NM OF
TROUGH BETWEEN 106W AND 109W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 127W AND 130W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF
ITCZ BETWEEN 133W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 26N132W EARLY
THIS MORNING. NW OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH 8
TO 10 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
BY THIS EVENING. A NEW COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W. NW OF FRONT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NW
20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-10 FT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN...AND IS
FORECAST TO DO SO AS IT APPROACHES 30N127W TO 26N132W TO
24N140W. NW OF THIS FRONT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS QUICKLY RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 9-16 FT IN NW SWELL.


ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES NEAR
25N122W...EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS W OF 110W...
PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF 113W.
THE HIGH WILL COLLAPSE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NEW
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...A WEAK AND NARROW
RIDGE WILL PERSIST AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN MARINE
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181601
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR
17.2N 98.8W 1002 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 18...OR ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM
ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS TO 50 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE STRUCTURE IS BECOMING DISRUPTED OVER THE TERRAIN
OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES INLAND MEXICO. THE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 96W AND
103W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 13N105W TO
14N103W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 17N103W.
TRUDY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 24
HOURS NEAR 17.5N 98.8W WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 25 KT GUSTS TO 35
KT. HOWEVER....VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL LEAD TO
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES.
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL
SW MEXICO FROM OAXACA TO MICHOACAN THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE
REMNANT LOW MEANDER JUST INLAND OF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 10N88W NW TO
15N92W...WHERE IT HAS FRACTURED FROM TROPICAL STORM TRUDY...THEN
RESUMES FROM 13N107W TO 11N118W TO 11N20W TO 09N135W...WHERE IT
ENDS. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N135W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE FROM 05N83W TO 05N87W TO 05N92W....WITHIN 120 NM OF
TROUGH BETWEEN 106W AND 109W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 127W AND 130W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF
ITCZ BETWEEN 133W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 26N132W EARLY
THIS MORNING. NW OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH 8
TO 10 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
BY THIS EVENING. A NEW COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W. NW OF FRONT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NW
20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-10 FT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN...AND IS
FORECAST TO DO SO AS IT APPROACHES 30N127W TO 26N132W TO
24N140W. NW OF THIS FRONT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS QUICKLY RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 9-16 FT IN NW SWELL.


ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES NEAR
25N122W...EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS W OF
110W...PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF
113W. THE HIGH WILL COLLAPSE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
HOWEVER...A WEAK AND NARROW RIDGE WILL PERSIST AND LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED IN MARINE CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181601
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR
17.2N 98.8W 1002 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 18...OR ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM
ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS TO 50 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE STRUCTURE IS BECOMING DISRUPTED OVER THE TERRAIN
OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES INLAND MEXICO. THE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 96W AND
103W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 13N105W TO
14N103W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 17N103W.
TRUDY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 24
HOURS NEAR 17.5N 98.8W WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 25 KT GUSTS TO 35
KT. HOWEVER....VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL LEAD TO
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES.
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL
SW MEXICO FROM OAXACA TO MICHOACAN THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE
REMNANT LOW MEANDER JUST INLAND OF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 10N88W NW TO
15N92W...WHERE IT HAS FRACTURED FROM TROPICAL STORM TRUDY...THEN
RESUMES FROM 13N107W TO 11N118W TO 11N20W TO 09N135W...WHERE IT
ENDS. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N135W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE FROM 05N83W TO 05N87W TO 05N92W....WITHIN 120 NM OF
TROUGH BETWEEN 106W AND 109W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 127W AND 130W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF
ITCZ BETWEEN 133W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 26N132W EARLY
THIS MORNING. NW OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH 8
TO 10 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
BY THIS EVENING. A NEW COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W. NW OF FRONT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NW
20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-10 FT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN...AND IS
FORECAST TO DO SO AS IT APPROACHES 30N127W TO 26N132W TO
24N140W. NW OF THIS FRONT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS QUICKLY RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 9-16 FT IN NW SWELL.


ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES NEAR
25N122W...EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS W OF
110W...PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF
113W. THE HIGH WILL COLLAPSE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
HOWEVER...A WEAK AND NARROW RIDGE WILL PERSIST AND LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED IN MARINE CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181601
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR
17.2N 98.8W 1002 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 18...OR ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM
ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS TO 50 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE STRUCTURE IS BECOMING DISRUPTED OVER THE TERRAIN
OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES INLAND MEXICO. THE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 96W AND
103W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 13N105W TO
14N103W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 17N103W.
TRUDY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 24
HOURS NEAR 17.5N 98.8W WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 25 KT GUSTS TO 35
KT. HOWEVER....VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL LEAD TO
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES.
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL
SW MEXICO FROM OAXACA TO MICHOACAN THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE
REMNANT LOW MEANDER JUST INLAND OF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 10N88W NW TO
15N92W...WHERE IT HAS FRACTURED FROM TROPICAL STORM TRUDY...THEN
RESUMES FROM 13N107W TO 11N118W TO 11N20W TO 09N135W...WHERE IT
ENDS. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N135W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE FROM 05N83W TO 05N87W TO 05N92W....WITHIN 120 NM OF
TROUGH BETWEEN 106W AND 109W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 127W AND 130W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF
ITCZ BETWEEN 133W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 26N132W EARLY
THIS MORNING. NW OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH 8
TO 10 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
BY THIS EVENING. A NEW COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W. NW OF FRONT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NW
20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-10 FT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN...AND IS
FORECAST TO DO SO AS IT APPROACHES 30N127W TO 26N132W TO
24N140W. NW OF THIS FRONT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS QUICKLY RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 9-16 FT IN NW SWELL.


ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES NEAR
25N122W...EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS W OF
110W...PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF
113W. THE HIGH WILL COLLAPSE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
HOWEVER...A WEAK AND NARROW RIDGE WILL PERSIST AND LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED IN MARINE CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181601
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR
17.2N 98.8W 1002 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 18...OR ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM
ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS TO 50 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE STRUCTURE IS BECOMING DISRUPTED OVER THE TERRAIN
OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES INLAND MEXICO. THE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 96W AND
103W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 13N105W TO
14N103W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 17N103W.
TRUDY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 24
HOURS NEAR 17.5N 98.8W WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 25 KT GUSTS TO 35
KT. HOWEVER....VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL LEAD TO
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES.
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL
SW MEXICO FROM OAXACA TO MICHOACAN THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE
REMNANT LOW MEANDER JUST INLAND OF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 10N88W NW TO
15N92W...WHERE IT HAS FRACTURED FROM TROPICAL STORM TRUDY...THEN
RESUMES FROM 13N107W TO 11N118W TO 11N20W TO 09N135W...WHERE IT
ENDS. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N135W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE FROM 05N83W TO 05N87W TO 05N92W....WITHIN 120 NM OF
TROUGH BETWEEN 106W AND 109W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 127W AND 130W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF
ITCZ BETWEEN 133W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 26N132W EARLY
THIS MORNING. NW OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH 8
TO 10 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
BY THIS EVENING. A NEW COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W. NW OF FRONT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NW
20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-10 FT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN...AND IS
FORECAST TO DO SO AS IT APPROACHES 30N127W TO 26N132W TO
24N140W. NW OF THIS FRONT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS QUICKLY RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 9-16 FT IN NW SWELL.


ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES NEAR
25N122W...EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS W OF
110W...PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF
113W. THE HIGH WILL COLLAPSE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
HOWEVER...A WEAK AND NARROW RIDGE WILL PERSIST AND LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED IN MARINE CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
WTPA35 PHFO 181531 CCA
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
500 AM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

...ANA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT PASSES WEST OF THE BIG ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 158.1W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS
OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE...HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 158.1 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS ABOUT 175 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF OAHU AND KAUAI COUNTY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
ANA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU AND KAUAI
COUNTY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY AND SUNDAY. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES THROUGH SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL
PERIODICALLY MOVE OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD




000
WTPA35 PHFO 181531 CCA
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
500 AM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

...ANA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT PASSES WEST OF THE BIG ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 158.1W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS
OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE...HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 158.1 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS ABOUT 175 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF OAHU AND KAUAI COUNTY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
ANA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU AND KAUAI
COUNTY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY AND SUNDAY. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES THROUGH SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL
PERIODICALLY MOVE OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD




000
WTPA35 PHFO 181531 CCA
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
500 AM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

...ANA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT PASSES WEST OF THE BIG ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 158.1W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS
OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE...HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 158.1 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS ABOUT 175 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF OAHU AND KAUAI COUNTY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
ANA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU AND KAUAI
COUNTY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY AND SUNDAY. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES THROUGH SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL
PERIODICALLY MOVE OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD




000
WTPA35 PHFO 181531 CCA
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
500 AM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

...ANA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT PASSES WEST OF THE BIG ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 158.1W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS
OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE...HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 158.1 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS ABOUT 175 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF OAHU AND KAUAI COUNTY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
ANA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU AND KAUAI
COUNTY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY AND SUNDAY. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES THROUGH SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL
PERIODICALLY MOVE OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD




000
WTNT33 KNHC 181455
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

...GONZALO FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 61.7W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.7 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/H.  THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT
DAY AND SHOULD PASS CLOSE OR JUST SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT A DAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA




000
WTNT33 KNHC 181455
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

...GONZALO FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 61.7W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.7 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/H.  THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT
DAY AND SHOULD PASS CLOSE OR JUST SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT A DAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA




000
WTNT23 KNHC 181454
TCMAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1500 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N  61.7W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT  22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 100SE  80SW  70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 220SW 320NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N  61.7W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.5N  62.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 40.8N  58.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  80SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 47.0N  50.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 210SE 150SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 51.3N  38.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 120SE  90SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 240SE 180SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 53.5N  23.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 240SE 320SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N  61.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA





000
WTNT23 KNHC 181454
TCMAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1500 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N  61.7W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT  22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 100SE  80SW  70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 220SW 320NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N  61.7W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.5N  62.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 40.8N  58.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  80SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 47.0N  50.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 210SE 150SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 51.3N  38.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 120SE  90SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 240SE 180SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 53.5N  23.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 240SE 320SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N  61.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA




000
WTNT23 KNHC 181454
TCMAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1500 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N  61.7W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT  22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 100SE  80SW  70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 220SW 320NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N  61.7W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.5N  62.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 40.8N  58.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  80SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 47.0N  50.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 210SE 150SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 51.3N  38.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 120SE  90SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 240SE 180SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 53.5N  23.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 240SE 320SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N  61.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA




000
WTNT23 KNHC 181454
TCMAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1500 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N  61.7W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT  22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 100SE  80SW  70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 220SW 320NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N  61.7W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.5N  62.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 40.8N  58.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  80SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 47.0N  50.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 210SE 150SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 51.3N  38.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 120SE  90SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 240SE 180SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 53.5N  23.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 240SE 320SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N  61.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA





000
WTPZ35 KNHC 181450
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...TRUDY MOVED INLAND BUT HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 98.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH AND
MAINTAINED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE EAST OF ACAPULCO TO
LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS
LOCATED INLAND MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8
WEST. TRUDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...BUT
LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA OVER
WATER. TRUDY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY OR
SOONER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF
THE WARNING AREA...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY.

RAINFALL...TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE
STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS WAVES GENERATED BY TRUDY WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...LIKELY CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


000
WTPZ35 KNHC 181450
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...TRUDY MOVED INLAND BUT HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 98.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH AND
MAINTAINED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE EAST OF ACAPULCO TO
LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS
LOCATED INLAND MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8
WEST. TRUDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...BUT
LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA OVER
WATER. TRUDY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY OR
SOONER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF
THE WARNING AREA...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY.

RAINFALL...TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE
STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS WAVES GENERATED BY TRUDY WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...LIKELY CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTPZ25 KNHC 181450
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
1500 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE
WATCH AND MAINTAINED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE EAST OF
ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  98.8W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE   0SE  60SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  98.8W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  98.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.5N  98.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.5N  98.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.5N  98.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N  98.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ25 KNHC 181450
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
1500 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE
WATCH AND MAINTAINED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE EAST OF
ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  98.8W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE   0SE  60SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  98.8W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  98.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.5N  98.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.5N  98.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.5N  98.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N  98.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ25 KNHC 181450
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
1500 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE
WATCH AND MAINTAINED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE EAST OF
ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  98.8W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE   0SE  60SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  98.8W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  98.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.5N  98.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.5N  98.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.5N  98.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N  98.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ25 KNHC 181450
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
1500 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE
WATCH AND MAINTAINED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE EAST OF
ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  98.8W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE   0SE  60SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  98.8W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  98.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.5N  98.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.5N  98.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.5N  98.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N  98.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ25 KNHC 181450
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
1500 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE
WATCH AND MAINTAINED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE EAST OF
ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  98.8W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE   0SE  60SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  98.8W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  98.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.5N  98.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.5N  98.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.5N  98.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N  98.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ25 KNHC 181450
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
1500 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE
WATCH AND MAINTAINED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE EAST OF
ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  98.8W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE   0SE  60SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  98.8W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  98.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.5N  98.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.5N  98.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.5N  98.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N  98.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





000
WTPZ35 KNHC 181450
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...TRUDY MOVED INLAND BUT HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 98.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH AND
MAINTAINED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE EAST OF ACAPULCO TO
LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS
LOCATED INLAND MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8
WEST. TRUDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...BUT
LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA OVER
WATER. TRUDY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY OR
SOONER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF
THE WARNING AREA...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY.

RAINFALL...TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE
STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS WAVES GENERATED BY TRUDY WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...LIKELY CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTPZ35 KNHC 181450
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...TRUDY MOVED INLAND BUT HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 98.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH AND
MAINTAINED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE EAST OF ACAPULCO TO
LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS
LOCATED INLAND MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8
WEST. TRUDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...BUT
LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA OVER
WATER. TRUDY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY OR
SOONER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF
THE WARNING AREA...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY.

RAINFALL...TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE
STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS WAVES GENERATED BY TRUDY WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...LIKELY CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


000
WTPA25 PHFO 181436
TCMCP5

HURRICANE ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
1500 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS
OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE...HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS...DEPENDING ON THE ISLAND.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 158.1W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  40SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  80SE  70SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 158.1W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 157.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.4N 159.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.9N 160.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.3N 162.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.6N 163.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.0N 166.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 168.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.5N 168.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 158.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD




000
WTPA25 PHFO 181436
TCMCP5

HURRICANE ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
1500 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS
OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE...HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS...DEPENDING ON THE ISLAND.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 158.1W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  40SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  80SE  70SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 158.1W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 157.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.4N 159.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.9N 160.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.3N 162.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.6N 163.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.0N 166.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 168.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.5N 168.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 158.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD





000
WTPA25 PHFO 181436
TCMCP5

HURRICANE ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
1500 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS
OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE...HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS...DEPENDING ON THE ISLAND.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 158.1W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  40SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  80SE  70SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 158.1W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 157.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.4N 159.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.9N 160.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.3N 162.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.6N 163.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.0N 166.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 168.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.5N 168.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 158.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD




000
WTPA25 PHFO 181436
TCMCP5

HURRICANE ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
1500 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS
OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE...HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS...DEPENDING ON THE ISLAND.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 158.1W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  40SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  80SE  70SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 158.1W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 157.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.4N 159.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.9N 160.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.3N 162.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.6N 163.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.0N 166.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 168.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.5N 168.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 158.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD





000
WTPA35 PHFO 181434
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
500 AM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

...ANA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT PASSES WEST OF THE BIG ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 158.1W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS
OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE...HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 158.1 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS ABOUT 175 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF OAHU AND KAUAI COUNTY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
ANA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU AND KAUAI
COUNTY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY AND SUNDAY. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES THROUGH SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL
PERIODICALLY MOVE OVER THE THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD




000
WTPA35 PHFO 181434
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
500 AM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

...ANA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT PASSES WEST OF THE BIG ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 158.1W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS
OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE...HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 158.1 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS ABOUT 175 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF OAHU AND KAUAI COUNTY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
ANA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU AND KAUAI
COUNTY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY AND SUNDAY. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES THROUGH SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL
PERIODICALLY MOVE OVER THE THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD





000
WTPA35 PHFO 181434
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
500 AM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

...ANA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT PASSES WEST OF THE BIG ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 158.1W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS
OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE...HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 158.1 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS ABOUT 175 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF OAHU AND KAUAI COUNTY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
ANA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU AND KAUAI
COUNTY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY AND SUNDAY. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES THROUGH SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL
PERIODICALLY MOVE OVER THE THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD




000
WTPA35 PHFO 181434
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
500 AM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

...ANA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT PASSES WEST OF THE BIG ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 158.1W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS
OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE...HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 158.1 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS ABOUT 175 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF OAHU AND KAUAI COUNTY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
ANA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU AND KAUAI
COUNTY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY AND SUNDAY. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES THROUGH SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL
PERIODICALLY MOVE OVER THE THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD





000
ACPN50 PHFO 181204
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU...HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE ANA...LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH
OF HONOLULU...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPA35 PHFO.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

$$

HOUSTON





000
ACPN50 PHFO 181204
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU...HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE ANA...LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH
OF HONOLULU...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPA35 PHFO.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

$$

HOUSTON






000
WTPA35 PHFO 181200
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  19A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
200 AM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

...ANA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE PASSING SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG
ISLAND...OUTER RAIN BANDS MOVING ASHORE ON THE BIG ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 158.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE HAWAII COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI...
  AND KAHOOLAWE
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS...DEPENDING ON THE ISLAND. ANA HAS MADE ITS CLOSEST POINT
OF APPROACH TO THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY. ANA WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO
THE OTHER MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 158.0 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS ABOUT 175
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE REST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS
WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY...
WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS FROM MAUI TO NIIHAU TODAY AND SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY AND SUNDAY. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST SHORELINES.

RAINFALL...BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE
OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM HST.

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD




000
WTPA35 PHFO 181200
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  19A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
200 AM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

...ANA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE PASSING SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG
ISLAND...OUTER RAIN BANDS MOVING ASHORE ON THE BIG ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 158.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE HAWAII COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI...
  AND KAHOOLAWE
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS...DEPENDING ON THE ISLAND. ANA HAS MADE ITS CLOSEST POINT
OF APPROACH TO THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY. ANA WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO
THE OTHER MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 158.0 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS ABOUT 175
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE REST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS
WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY...
WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS FROM MAUI TO NIIHAU TODAY AND SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY AND SUNDAY. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST SHORELINES.

RAINFALL...BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE
OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM HST.

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD





000
AXNT20 KNHC 181150
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 35.9N 62.7W AT 18/1200 UTC OR
ABOUT ABOUT 235 NM N-NE OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 782 NM SSW OF CAPE
RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING N-NE AT 19 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90
KT WITH GUST TO 110 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS N OF BERMUDA FROM 33N-38N BETWEEN 61W-66W. PLEASE
SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 13N37W
TO 5N36W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND BENEATH THE WESTERN PORTION
OF AN UPPER RIDGE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN 30W-36W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N21W 10N30W TO E OF THE
TROPICAL NEAR 7N35W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 5N39W TO
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 13W-16W INCLUDING THE W COAST
OF AFRICA AND FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 23W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC DIPPING
S OVER THE FAR NE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO OVER E TEXAS COVERING
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE GULF THIS MORNING ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 27N88W. A
SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE
CARIBBEAN COVERING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. MOISTURE FROM T.S. TRUDY OFF THE S COAST OF MEXICO IS
BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE COUPLED WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE FROM A RECENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N ACROSS THE BAY W OF 90W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER REMARKABLE CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF EARLY SUN AND BECOME DIFFUSE FROM NEAR
TAMPA BAY TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST SUN NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W
CARIBBEAN TO 78W AND IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE YUCATAN.
THIS UPPER FLOW COUPLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE FROM A RECENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N W OF 80W TO OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE
GREATER ANTILLES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-80W. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W ALONG 11N79W TO
ACROSS PANAMA/COSTA RICA NEAR 9N82W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N BETWEEN 75W-80W.
NORTHERLY SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE GONZALO WILL SUBSIDE
WITHIN ATLC PASSAGES TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MON.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OFFSHORE OF SW
HAITI. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC/E CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE TODAY WHEN THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN AND HISPANIOLA NW FLOW ALOFT.
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COUPLED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE ATLC BASIN THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE
HURRICANE GONZALO MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE
ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS GONZALO EXTENDING FROM 28N63W
ALONG 24N70W TO 22N77W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W DIPPING S
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY/STABLE AIR FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 67W-74W AND FROM CUBA TO 32N
W OF 74W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS CENTERED NEAR
22N50W SUPPORTING A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 22N50W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 19N51W 17N55W TO 15N57W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N-28N
BETWEEN 39W-52W AND FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 39W-47W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH S OF 20N. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS IN THE NE ATLC TO 28N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N25W ALONG 30N30W TO 29N35W
BECOMING STATIONARY TO 30N41W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM
SE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 12N29W AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 23N30W. GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NE AWAY FROM BERMUDA THIS MORNING AND WILL PASS JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SUN AND WILL EXTEND
FROM BERMUDA TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 181150
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 35.9N 62.7W AT 18/1200 UTC OR
ABOUT ABOUT 235 NM N-NE OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 782 NM SSW OF CAPE
RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING N-NE AT 19 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90
KT WITH GUST TO 110 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS N OF BERMUDA FROM 33N-38N BETWEEN 61W-66W. PLEASE
SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 13N37W
TO 5N36W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND BENEATH THE WESTERN PORTION
OF AN UPPER RIDGE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN 30W-36W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N21W 10N30W TO E OF THE
TROPICAL NEAR 7N35W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 5N39W TO
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 13W-16W INCLUDING THE W COAST
OF AFRICA AND FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 23W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC DIPPING
S OVER THE FAR NE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO OVER E TEXAS COVERING
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE GULF THIS MORNING ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 27N88W. A
SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE
CARIBBEAN COVERING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. MOISTURE FROM T.S. TRUDY OFF THE S COAST OF MEXICO IS
BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE COUPLED WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE FROM A RECENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N ACROSS THE BAY W OF 90W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER REMARKABLE CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF EARLY SUN AND BECOME DIFFUSE FROM NEAR
TAMPA BAY TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST SUN NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W
CARIBBEAN TO 78W AND IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE YUCATAN.
THIS UPPER FLOW COUPLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE FROM A RECENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N W OF 80W TO OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE
GREATER ANTILLES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-80W. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W ALONG 11N79W TO
ACROSS PANAMA/COSTA RICA NEAR 9N82W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N BETWEEN 75W-80W.
NORTHERLY SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE GONZALO WILL SUBSIDE
WITHIN ATLC PASSAGES TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MON.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OFFSHORE OF SW
HAITI. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC/E CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE TODAY WHEN THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN AND HISPANIOLA NW FLOW ALOFT.
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COUPLED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE ATLC BASIN THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE
HURRICANE GONZALO MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE
ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS GONZALO EXTENDING FROM 28N63W
ALONG 24N70W TO 22N77W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W DIPPING S
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY/STABLE AIR FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 67W-74W AND FROM CUBA TO 32N
W OF 74W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS CENTERED NEAR
22N50W SUPPORTING A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 22N50W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 19N51W 17N55W TO 15N57W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N-28N
BETWEEN 39W-52W AND FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 39W-47W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH S OF 20N. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS IN THE NE ATLC TO 28N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N25W ALONG 30N30W TO 29N35W
BECOMING STATIONARY TO 30N41W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM
SE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 12N29W AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 23N30W. GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NE AWAY FROM BERMUDA THIS MORNING AND WILL PASS JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SUN AND WILL EXTEND
FROM BERMUDA TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
WTNT33 KNHC 181144
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  24A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
800 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

...WEATHER IMPROVING IN BERMUDA AS GONZALO QUICKLY MOVES
AWAY...
...FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.9N 62.7W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS FORECAST TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA THIS MORNING AND PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS ON BERMUDA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...AND BERMUDA. SWELLS WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA




000
WTNT33 KNHC 181144
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  24A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
800 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

...WEATHER IMPROVING IN BERMUDA AS GONZALO QUICKLY MOVES
AWAY...
...FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.9N 62.7W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS FORECAST TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA THIS MORNING AND PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS ON BERMUDA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...AND BERMUDA. SWELLS WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA



000
WTPZ35 KNHC 181143
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
500 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...SLOW-MOVING TRUDY THREATENS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 98.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
COMPLETEL
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...RADAR FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED ON THE COAST NEAR
LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8 WEST. TRUDY IS MOVING TOWARD
THE EAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST IS EXPECTED TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING
TRUDY INLAND LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SINCE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY INLAND...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED WHEN THE CENTER MOVES
FARTHER INLAND LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRING IN
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA NOW.

RAINFALL...TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE
STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS WAVES GENERATED BY TRUDY WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...LIKELY CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTPZ35 KNHC 181143
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
500 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...SLOW-MOVING TRUDY THREATENS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 98.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
COMPLETEL
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...RADAR FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED ON THE COAST NEAR
LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8 WEST. TRUDY IS MOVING TOWARD
THE EAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST IS EXPECTED TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING
TRUDY INLAND LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SINCE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY INLAND...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED WHEN THE CENTER MOVES
FARTHER INLAND LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRING IN
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA NOW.

RAINFALL...TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE
STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS WAVES GENERATED BY TRUDY WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...LIKELY CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ35 KNHC 181143
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
500 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...SLOW-MOVING TRUDY THREATENS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 98.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
COMPLETEL
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...RADAR FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED ON THE COAST NEAR
LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8 WEST. TRUDY IS MOVING TOWARD
THE EAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST IS EXPECTED TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING
TRUDY INLAND LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SINCE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY INLAND...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED WHEN THE CENTER MOVES
FARTHER INLAND LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRING IN
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA NOW.

RAINFALL...TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE
STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS WAVES GENERATED BY TRUDY WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...LIKELY CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTPZ35 KNHC 181143
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
500 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...SLOW-MOVING TRUDY THREATENS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 98.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
COMPLETEL
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...RADAR FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED ON THE COAST NEAR
LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8 WEST. TRUDY IS MOVING TOWARD
THE EAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST IS EXPECTED TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING
TRUDY INLAND LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SINCE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY INLAND...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED WHEN THE CENTER MOVES
FARTHER INLAND LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRING IN
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA NOW.

RAINFALL...TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE
STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS WAVES GENERATED BY TRUDY WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...LIKELY CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 181131
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT SABADO 18 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN GONZALO...LOCALIZADO A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL NORTE
NORESTE DE BERMUDA.

FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL NO SE ESPERA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR LANDSEA





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 181131
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT SABADO 18 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN GONZALO...LOCALIZADO A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL NORTE
NORESTE DE BERMUDA.

FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL NO SE ESPERA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR LANDSEA





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 181131
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT SABADO 18 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN GONZALO...LOCALIZADO A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL NORTE
NORESTE DE BERMUDA.

FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL NO SE ESPERA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR LANDSEA





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 181131
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT SABADO 18 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN GONZALO...LOCALIZADO A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL NORTE
NORESTE DE BERMUDA.

FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL NO SE ESPERA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR LANDSEA





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 181131
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT SABADO 18 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN GONZALO...LOCALIZADO A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL NORTE
NORESTE DE BERMUDA.

FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL NO SE ESPERA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR LANDSEA





000
ABNT20 KNHC 181116
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gonzalo, located a couple hundred miles north-northeast of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Landsea



000
ABNT20 KNHC 181116
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gonzalo, located a couple hundred miles north-northeast of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Landsea


000
ABNT20 KNHC 181116
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gonzalo, located a couple hundred miles north-northeast of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Landsea



000
ABNT20 KNHC 181116
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gonzalo, located a couple hundred miles north-northeast of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Landsea


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181114
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Trudy, located less of a hundred miles east of Acapulco.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Trudy are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories are issued
under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181114
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Trudy, located less of a hundred miles east of Acapulco.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Trudy are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories are issued
under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181114
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Trudy, located less of a hundred miles east of Acapulco.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Trudy are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories are issued
under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181114
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Trudy, located less of a hundred miles east of Acapulco.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Trudy are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories are issued
under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181114
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Trudy, located less of a hundred miles east of Acapulco.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Trudy are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories are issued
under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180950
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 98.8W 999 MB AT 0900
UTC OCT 18...OR ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...
MOVING E OR 080 DEG AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS
TO 60 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM NE AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLES
OF THE CENTER...WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
WAS N OF 13.5N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W. THE ACAPULCO RADAR
CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF TRUDY OVERNIGHT AS IT
HAS MOVED SLOWLY NE TO E AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MEXICAN COAST.
RECENT RADAR IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER WAS MOVING VERY
SLOWLY ASHORE ABOUT 60 NM E-SE OF THE ACAPULCO AIRPORT. TRUDY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FARTHER INLAND WHICH SHOULD END
THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION TREND. HOWEVER....VERY HEAVY TO
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL SW MEXICO FROM OAXACA TO MICHOACAN
THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE REMNANTS MEANDER ABOUT JUST INLAND OF THE
COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N73W TO 07N86W TO 16N94W...
WHERE IT HAS FRACTURED FROM TROPICAL STORM TRUDY...THEN RESUMES
FROM 14N103.5W TO 09N129W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N133W 1012
MB...WHERE IT TERMINATES. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08.5N136W TO BEYOND
07.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG N OF 04N E OF
89W...EXCEPT NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM SW OF
COAST BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 150 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 105W AND 116W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM NE AND 90 NM SW QUADRANTS
OF LOW PRES NEAR 08N133W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N127W TO 26.5N140W EARLY
THIS MORNING. NW OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH 8
TO 10 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 30N124W TO 26N130W TO 25N140W THIS EVENING WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8 FT JUST NW OF IT. A SURGE OF LARGE LONG
PERIOD NW SWELL WILL SWEEP INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUN MORNING NW
OF A COLD FRONT FROM 30N134W TO 26N140W. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD
TO 15-16 FT BEHIND FRONT IN FAR NW PORTION ON SUN.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES NEAR
25N122W...EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS W OF
110W...PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF
113W. THE HIGH WILL COLLAPSE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...A WEAK AND NARROW RIDGE
WILL PERSIST AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN MARINE
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180950
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 98.8W 999 MB AT 0900
UTC OCT 18...OR ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...
MOVING E OR 080 DEG AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS
TO 60 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM NE AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLES
OF THE CENTER...WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
WAS N OF 13.5N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W. THE ACAPULCO RADAR
CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF TRUDY OVERNIGHT AS IT
HAS MOVED SLOWLY NE TO E AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MEXICAN COAST.
RECENT RADAR IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER WAS MOVING VERY
SLOWLY ASHORE ABOUT 60 NM E-SE OF THE ACAPULCO AIRPORT. TRUDY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FARTHER INLAND WHICH SHOULD END
THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION TREND. HOWEVER....VERY HEAVY TO
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL SW MEXICO FROM OAXACA TO MICHOACAN
THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE REMNANTS MEANDER ABOUT JUST INLAND OF THE
COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N73W TO 07N86W TO 16N94W...
WHERE IT HAS FRACTURED FROM TROPICAL STORM TRUDY...THEN RESUMES
FROM 14N103.5W TO 09N129W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N133W 1012
MB...WHERE IT TERMINATES. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08.5N136W TO BEYOND
07.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG N OF 04N E OF
89W...EXCEPT NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM SW OF
COAST BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 150 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 105W AND 116W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM NE AND 90 NM SW QUADRANTS
OF LOW PRES NEAR 08N133W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N127W TO 26.5N140W EARLY
THIS MORNING. NW OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH 8
TO 10 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 30N124W TO 26N130W TO 25N140W THIS EVENING WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8 FT JUST NW OF IT. A SURGE OF LARGE LONG
PERIOD NW SWELL WILL SWEEP INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUN MORNING NW
OF A COLD FRONT FROM 30N134W TO 26N140W. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD
TO 15-16 FT BEHIND FRONT IN FAR NW PORTION ON SUN.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES NEAR
25N122W...EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS W OF
110W...PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF
113W. THE HIGH WILL COLLAPSE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...A WEAK AND NARROW RIDGE
WILL PERSIST AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN MARINE
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

$$
STRIPLING


000
WTPZ25 KNHC 180841
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
0900 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM EAST OF
ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  98.8W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  80 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  98.8W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  98.9W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.4N  98.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.5N  98.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  50SE  20SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.6N  98.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N  98.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN





000
WTPZ35 KNHC 180841
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
200 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED AS TRUDY QUICKLY INTENSIFIES...
...SLOW-MOVING CYCLONE THREATENS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 98.8W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM EAST OF
ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8 WEST. TRUDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND A SLOW MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CENTER CROSSES
THE COAST IN THE WARNED AREA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE TRUDY MAKES LANDFALL...WITH RAPID WEAKENING AFTER THAT TIME.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRING IN
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE
STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS WAVES GENERATED BY TRUDY WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...LIKELY CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN




000
WTNT33 KNHC 180834
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
500 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

...GONZALO QUICKLY MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA...
...FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 63.2W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
BERMUDA TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS FORECAST TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA THIS MORNING AND PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GONZALO
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. A WIND GUST OF 46 MPH...74 KM/H...WAS RECENTLY
REPORTED AT THE BERMUDA AIRPORT. A WIND GUST OF 54 MPH...86 KM/H...
WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED OBSERVATION SITE AT
COMMISSIONER`S POINT BERMUDA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WILL CONTINUE ON BERMUDA EARLY THIS MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA IN
NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS ON BERMUDA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.

RAINFALL...RAIN WILL BE ENDING THIS MORNING ON BERMUDA AS GONZALO
MOVES AWAY FROM THE ISLAND.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...AND BERMUDA. SWELLS WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTNT33 KNHC 180834
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
500 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

...GONZALO QUICKLY MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA...
...FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 63.2W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
BERMUDA TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS FORECAST TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA THIS MORNING AND PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GONZALO
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. A WIND GUST OF 46 MPH...74 KM/H...WAS RECENTLY
REPORTED AT THE BERMUDA AIRPORT. A WIND GUST OF 54 MPH...86 KM/H...
WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED OBSERVATION SITE AT
COMMISSIONER`S POINT BERMUDA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WILL CONTINUE ON BERMUDA EARLY THIS MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA IN
NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS ON BERMUDA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.

RAINFALL...RAIN WILL BE ENDING THIS MORNING ON BERMUDA AS GONZALO
MOVES AWAY FROM THE ISLAND.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...AND BERMUDA. SWELLS WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
WTPA35 PHFO 180834
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
1100 PM HST FRI OCT 17 2014

...HURRICANE ANA PASSING SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND...OUTER
RAIN BANDS MOVING ASHORE ON THE BIG ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 157.4W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI...
  AND KAHOOLAWE
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS...DEPENDING ON THE ISLAND. ANA WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST POINT
OF APPROACH TO THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII TONIGHT...MAKING ITS CLOSEST
POINT OF APPROACH TO THE OTHER ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 157.4 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS
ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT AND ABOUT 175
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE REST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS
WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...
WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BIG ISLAND
OF HAWAII TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING COASTS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OVER THE
WEEKEND.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
MOST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. SURF
PRODUCED BY THESE SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SHORELINES THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH SURF WILL
DIMINISH EARLIER ON THE BIG ISLAND.

RAINFALL...HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER THE
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN COULD POTENTIALLY
AFFECT THE OTHER ISLANDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM HST.

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD




000
WTPA35 PHFO 180834
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
1100 PM HST FRI OCT 17 2014

...HURRICANE ANA PASSING SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND...OUTER
RAIN BANDS MOVING ASHORE ON THE BIG ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 157.4W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI...
  AND KAHOOLAWE
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS...DEPENDING ON THE ISLAND. ANA WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST POINT
OF APPROACH TO THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII TONIGHT...MAKING ITS CLOSEST
POINT OF APPROACH TO THE OTHER ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 157.4 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS
ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT AND ABOUT 175
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE REST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS
WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...
WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BIG ISLAND
OF HAWAII TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING COASTS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OVER THE
WEEKEND.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
MOST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. SURF
PRODUCED BY THESE SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SHORELINES THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH SURF WILL
DIMINISH EARLIER ON THE BIG ISLAND.

RAINFALL...HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER THE
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN COULD POTENTIALLY
AFFECT THE OTHER ISLANDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM HST.

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD





000
WTNT23 KNHC 180833
TCMAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
0900 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
BERMUDA TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N  63.2W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT  19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 150SE 110SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 320SE 220SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N  63.2W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.7N  63.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 38.2N  60.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 44.2N  54.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 210SE 150SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 49.7N  44.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 150SE  90SW   0NW.
34 KT...140NE 270SE 180SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 53.0N  31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 320SE 320SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 56.0N   3.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 270SE 420SW 480NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N  63.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPA25 PHFO 180832
TCMCP5

HURRICANE ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
0900 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI...
  AND KAHOOLAWE
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS...DEPENDING ON THE ISLAND. ANA WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST POINT
OF APPROACH TO THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII TONIGHT...MAKING ITS CLOSEST
POINT OF APPROACH TO THE OTHER ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 157.4W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  20SE  10SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  80SE  70SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 157.4W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 157.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.8N 158.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  10SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.6N 159.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  10SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.2N 161.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.6N 162.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  25SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  20SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.5N 165.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  20SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 23.5N 167.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 25.5N 168.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 157.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD





000
WTPA25 PHFO 180832
TCMCP5

HURRICANE ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
0900 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI...
  AND KAHOOLAWE
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS...DEPENDING ON THE ISLAND. ANA WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST POINT
OF APPROACH TO THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII TONIGHT...MAKING ITS CLOSEST
POINT OF APPROACH TO THE OTHER ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 157.4W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  20SE  10SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  80SE  70SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 157.4W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 157.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.8N 158.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  10SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.6N 159.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  10SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.2N 161.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.6N 162.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  25SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  20SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.5N 165.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  20SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 23.5N 167.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 25.5N 168.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 157.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD




000
AXNT20 KNHC 180604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 33.5N 63.9W AT 18/0600 UTC OR
ABOUT ABOUT 87 NM NE OF BERMUDA MOVING N-NE AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 90 KT WITH GUST TO 110 KT. THE EYE OF GONZALO PASSED OVER
BERMUDA DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. HURRICANE-FORCE WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON BERMUDA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF BERMUDA FROM 32N-37N
BETWEEN 60W-66W. PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 16N35W
TO 4N35W MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND BENEATH THE WESTERN PORTION OF AN
UPPER RIDGE. THIS SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IS MERGING WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE TO THE W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-15N BETWEEN 30W-
39W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N20W TO 7N24W WHERE THE
ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 7N27W TO 8N33W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG COAST OF
AFRICA S OF 8N W OF 10W AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
AFRICA FROM 8N-10N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N
BETWEEN 23W-25W AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 41W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS DIPPING S OVER THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N E OF 88W WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO OVER E TEXAS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT ANCHORED BY A
1016 MB HIGH NEAR 28N87W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN COVERING THE SW GULF OF
MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE
GULF EXCEPT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MOISTURE FROM T.S. TRUDY OFF
THE S COAST OF MEXICO IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE COUPLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE FROM A RECENT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
S OF 20N ACROSS THE BAY AND S OF 22N BETWEEN 87W-92W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER REMARKABLE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE N GULF EARLY SUN AND BECOME DIFFUSE FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY
TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST SUN NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF BY MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W AND IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
AND COUPLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE FROM A RECENT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
S OF 21N W OF 85W TO OVER THE YUCATAN. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND
ALONG THE COASTS OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA E OF 80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PUERTO RICO. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS S OF
THE CARIBBEAN OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THE
MONSOON TROUGH COUPLED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ARE GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N
BETWEEN 72W-79W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 80W. NORTHERLY SWELLS ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE GONZALO WILL SUBSIDE WITHIN ATLC PASSAGES SAT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MON.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING
TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE N COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
W ATLC/E CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE SAT WHEN
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN AND
HISPANIOLA MORE OF A NW FLOW ALOFT. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
COULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE ATLC BASIN TONIGHT IS HURRICANE GONZALO
MOVING ACROSS BERMUDA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. A TRAILING
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45
NM OF LINE FROM 31N61W TO 25N62W AND FROM 24N70W TO 22N76W. AN
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 67W DIPPING S ACROSS THE
GREATER ANTILLES TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR N OF
24N BETWEEN 66W-75W AND FROM CUBA TO 32N W OF 75W. AN UPPER LOW
IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 23N51W SUPPORTING A 1012 MB LOW NEAR
21N46W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 17N46W TO 13N49W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
21N-28N BETWEEN 40W-53W AND WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
S OF 18N. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE NE ATLC TO 28N SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N27W ALONG 30N32W
TO 29N39W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM SE OF THE FRONT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED NEAR 13N29W AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017
MB HIGH NEAR 23N31W. GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM
BERMUDA AND TRACK JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY
SUN AND WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY
MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
WTPA35 PHFO 180600
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  18A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
800 PM HST FRI OCT 17 2014

...HURRICANE ANA PASSING SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 156.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI...
  AND KAHOOLAWE.
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS...DEPENDING ON THE ISLAND. ANA WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST POINT
OF APPROACH TO THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII TONIGHT...MAKING ITS CLOSEST
POINT OF APPROACH TO THE OTHER ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 17.4
NORTH...LONGITUDE 156.9 WEST. ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
BIG ISLAND TONIGHT AND ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE REST OF THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BIG ISLAND
OF HAWAII TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING COASTS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OVER THE
WEEKEND.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
MOST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. SURF
PRODUCED BY THESE SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SHORELINES THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH SURF WILL
DIMINISH EARLIER ON THE BIG ISLAND.

RAINFALL...HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER THE
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN COULD POTENTIALLY
AFFECT THE OTHER ISLANDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD




000
WTPA35 PHFO 180600
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  18A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
800 PM HST FRI OCT 17 2014

...HURRICANE ANA PASSING SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 156.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI...
  AND KAHOOLAWE.
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS...DEPENDING ON THE ISLAND. ANA WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST POINT
OF APPROACH TO THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII TONIGHT...MAKING ITS CLOSEST
POINT OF APPROACH TO THE OTHER ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 17.4
NORTH...LONGITUDE 156.9 WEST. ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
BIG ISLAND TONIGHT AND ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE REST OF THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BIG ISLAND
OF HAWAII TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING COASTS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OVER THE
WEEKEND.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
MOST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. SURF
PRODUCED BY THESE SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SHORELINES THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH SURF WILL
DIMINISH EARLIER ON THE BIG ISLAND.

RAINFALL...HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER THE
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN COULD POTENTIALLY
AFFECT THE OTHER ISLANDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD





000
WTNT33 KNHC 180558
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  23A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
200 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

...GONZALO STILL PRODUCING HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.5N 63.9W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A CONTINUED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA TODAY...AND PASS JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...WITH FASTER WEAKENING FORECAST TO OCCUR BY THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN GONZALO MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 59 MPH...95 KM/H...AND A GUST
TO 70 MPH...113 KM/H...WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT THE BERMUDA
AIRPORT. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 61 MPH...98 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 82
MPH...132 KM/H...WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED OBSERVATION
SITE AT COMMISSIONER`S POINT BERMUDA. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 52
MPH...84 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 87 MPH...139 KM/H...WERE RECENTLY
REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED OBSERVATION SITE AT ST. DAVID`S BERMUDA NEAR
THE AIRPORT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON
BERMUDA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS
ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30
PERCENT STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED
LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND BY EARLY SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...AND BERMUDA. SWELLS WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTNT33 KNHC 180558
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  23A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
200 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

...GONZALO STILL PRODUCING HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.5N 63.9W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A CONTINUED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA TODAY...AND PASS JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...WITH FASTER WEAKENING FORECAST TO OCCUR BY THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN GONZALO MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 59 MPH...95 KM/H...AND A GUST
TO 70 MPH...113 KM/H...WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT THE BERMUDA
AIRPORT. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 61 MPH...98 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 82
MPH...132 KM/H...WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED OBSERVATION
SITE AT COMMISSIONER`S POINT BERMUDA. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 52
MPH...84 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 87 MPH...139 KM/H...WERE RECENTLY
REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED OBSERVATION SITE AT ST. DAVID`S BERMUDA NEAR
THE AIRPORT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON
BERMUDA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS
ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30
PERCENT STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED
LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND BY EARLY SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...AND BERMUDA. SWELLS WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 180557
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT SABADO 18 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN GONZALO...LOCALIZADO JUSTO AL NORESTE DE BERMUDA.

FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL NO SE ESPERA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS CINCO
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 180557
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT SABADO 18 DE OCTUBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN GONZALO...LOCALIZADO JUSTO AL NORESTE DE BERMUDA.

FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL NO SE ESPERA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS CINCO
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN




000
ACPN50 PHFO 180550
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI OCT 17 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU...HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE ANA...LOCATED ABOUT 270 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP5 AND WMO HEADER
WTPA35 PHFO.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

$$

HOUSTON






000
ACPN50 PHFO 180550
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI OCT 17 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU...HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE ANA...LOCATED ABOUT 270 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP5 AND WMO HEADER
WTPA35 PHFO.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

$$

HOUSTON






000
ACPN50 PHFO 180550
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI OCT 17 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU...HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE ANA...LOCATED ABOUT 270 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP5 AND WMO HEADER
WTPA35 PHFO.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

$$

HOUSTON






000
ACPN50 PHFO 180550
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI OCT 17 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU...HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE ANA...LOCATED ABOUT 270 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP5 AND WMO HEADER
WTPA35 PHFO.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

$$

HOUSTON






000
WTPZ35 KNHC 180536
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
1100 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...SLOW-MOVING TRUDY TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...HIGH RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 98.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS
ESTIMATED BY RADAR DATA FROM ACAPULCO TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.9 WEST. TRUDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR
5 MPH...7 KM/H. A SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK IS LIKELY...WITH TRUDY
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN MEXICO ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH
WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
NORTHWESTWARD THOROUGH THE WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE
STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS WAVES FROM TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...LIKELY
CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN



000
WTPZ35 KNHC 180536
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
1100 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...SLOW-MOVING TRUDY TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...HIGH RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 98.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS
ESTIMATED BY RADAR DATA FROM ACAPULCO TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.9 WEST. TRUDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR
5 MPH...7 KM/H. A SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK IS LIKELY...WITH TRUDY
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN MEXICO ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH
WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
NORTHWESTWARD THOROUGH THE WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE
STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS WAVES FROM TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...LIKELY
CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN



000
WTPZ35 KNHC 180536
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
1100 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...SLOW-MOVING TRUDY TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...HIGH RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 98.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS
ESTIMATED BY RADAR DATA FROM ACAPULCO TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.9 WEST. TRUDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR
5 MPH...7 KM/H. A SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK IS LIKELY...WITH TRUDY
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN MEXICO ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH
WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
NORTHWESTWARD THOROUGH THE WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE
STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS WAVES FROM TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...LIKELY
CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN



000
WTPZ35 KNHC 180536
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
1100 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...SLOW-MOVING TRUDY TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...HIGH RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 98.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS
ESTIMATED BY RADAR DATA FROM ACAPULCO TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.9 WEST. TRUDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR
5 MPH...7 KM/H. A SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK IS LIKELY...WITH TRUDY
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN MEXICO ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH
WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
NORTHWESTWARD THOROUGH THE WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE
STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS WAVES FROM TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...LIKELY
CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 180510
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Trudy, located just south of the south-central coast of
Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Trudy are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories are issued
under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 180510
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Trudy, located just south of the south-central coast of
Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Trudy are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories are issued
under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Brennan




000
ABNT20 KNHC 180503
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gonzalo, located just northeast of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ABNT20 KNHC 180503
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gonzalo, located just northeast of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180259
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM TRUDY NEAR 16.0N 99.0W 1004 MB AT 0300 UTC OCT 18
MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS
45 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 14.5N
BETWEEN 97W AND 101W. TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER IN
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD S OF MEXICO BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL SAT AFTERNOON. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY
WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL SW MEXICO INCLUDING STATES FROM
OAXACA TO MICHOACAN THE NEXT 2 DAYS...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING AND POSSIBLE LANDSLIDES.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 14N90W TO TROPICAL STORM
TRUDY TO 11N110W TO 11N121W TO 09N131W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
09N131W TO 08N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM S
OF AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 115W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N130W TO 26N140W. NW OF
THE FRONT WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH 8 TO 10 FT SEAS IN NW
SWELL. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N124W
TO 26N130W TO 25N140W SAT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. A SURGE OF
LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL SWEEP INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUN
MORNING NW OF A COLD FRONT FROM 30N134W TO 26N140W. SEAS WILL
RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15-16 FT BEHIND FRONT IN FAR NW PORTION SUN.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES NEAR
25N123W...EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS W OF 110W...PRODUCING
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180259
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM TRUDY NEAR 16.0N 99.0W 1004 MB AT 0300 UTC OCT 18
MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS
45 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 14.5N
BETWEEN 97W AND 101W. TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER IN
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD S OF MEXICO BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL SAT AFTERNOON. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY
WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL SW MEXICO INCLUDING STATES FROM
OAXACA TO MICHOACAN THE NEXT 2 DAYS...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING AND POSSIBLE LANDSLIDES.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 14N90W TO TROPICAL STORM
TRUDY TO 11N110W TO 11N121W TO 09N131W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
09N131W TO 08N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM S
OF AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 115W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N130W TO 26N140W. NW OF
THE FRONT WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH 8 TO 10 FT SEAS IN NW
SWELL. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N124W
TO 26N130W TO 25N140W SAT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. A SURGE OF
LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL SWEEP INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUN
MORNING NW OF A COLD FRONT FROM 30N134W TO 26N140W. SEAS WILL
RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15-16 FT BEHIND FRONT IN FAR NW PORTION SUN.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES NEAR
25N123W...EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS W OF 110W...PRODUCING
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180259
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM TRUDY NEAR 16.0N 99.0W 1004 MB AT 0300 UTC OCT 18
MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS
45 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 14.5N
BETWEEN 97W AND 101W. TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER IN
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD S OF MEXICO BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL SAT AFTERNOON. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY
WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL SW MEXICO INCLUDING STATES FROM
OAXACA TO MICHOACAN THE NEXT 2 DAYS...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING AND POSSIBLE LANDSLIDES.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 14N90W TO TROPICAL STORM
TRUDY TO 11N110W TO 11N121W TO 09N131W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
09N131W TO 08N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM S
OF AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 115W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N130W TO 26N140W. NW OF
THE FRONT WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH 8 TO 10 FT SEAS IN NW
SWELL. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N124W
TO 26N130W TO 25N140W SAT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. A SURGE OF
LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL SWEEP INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUN
MORNING NW OF A COLD FRONT FROM 30N134W TO 26N140W. SEAS WILL
RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15-16 FT BEHIND FRONT IN FAR NW PORTION SUN.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES NEAR
25N123W...EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS W OF 110W...PRODUCING
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180259
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM TRUDY NEAR 16.0N 99.0W 1004 MB AT 0300 UTC OCT 18
MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS
45 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 14.5N
BETWEEN 97W AND 101W. TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER IN
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD S OF MEXICO BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL SAT AFTERNOON. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY
WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL SW MEXICO INCLUDING STATES FROM
OAXACA TO MICHOACAN THE NEXT 2 DAYS...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING AND POSSIBLE LANDSLIDES.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 14N90W TO TROPICAL STORM
TRUDY TO 11N110W TO 11N121W TO 09N131W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
09N131W TO 08N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM S
OF AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 115W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N130W TO 26N140W. NW OF
THE FRONT WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH 8 TO 10 FT SEAS IN NW
SWELL. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N124W
TO 26N130W TO 25N140W SAT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. A SURGE OF
LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL SWEEP INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUN
MORNING NW OF A COLD FRONT FROM 30N134W TO 26N140W. SEAS WILL
RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15-16 FT BEHIND FRONT IN FAR NW PORTION SUN.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES NEAR
25N123W...EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS W OF 110W...PRODUCING
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N.

$$
MUNDELL


000
WTNT33 KNHC 180256
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1100 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014

...LARGE EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE GONZALO MOVING AWAY FROM
BERMUDA...
...DAMAGING WINDS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE OCCURRING
AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 64.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON BERMUDA SHORTLY...
AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL
FOLLOW FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTERWARDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE EYE OF HURRICANE
GONZALO WAS LOCATED BY THE BERMUDA RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 32.7 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST.  GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
BERMUDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH FASTER WEAKENING
FORECAST TO OCCUR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN GONZALO MOVES OVER
COOLER WATERS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.  A SUSTAINED WIND OF 60 MPH...96 KM/H AND A GUST TO
74 MPH...119 KM/H WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT THE BERMUDA AIRPORT. A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 84 MPH...135 KM/H AND A GUST TO 119 MPH...191 KM/H
WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED OBSERVATION SITE AT
COMMISSIONER`S POINT BERMUDA.  A SUSTAINED WIND OF 58 MPH...
94 KM/H AND A GUST TO 97 MPH...156 KM/H WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT
AN ELEVATED OBSERVATION SITE AT ST. DAVIDS BERMUDA NEAR THE AIRPORT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB...28.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME SHORTLY ON
BERMUDA AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL PASSES NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE ISLAND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON
THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT
STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE
EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AND BERMUDA. SWELLS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTNT33 KNHC 180256
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1100 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014

...LARGE EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE GONZALO MOVING AWAY FROM
BERMUDA...
...DAMAGING WINDS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE OCCURRING
AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 64.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON BERMUDA SHORTLY...
AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL
FOLLOW FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTERWARDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE EYE OF HURRICANE
GONZALO WAS LOCATED BY THE BERMUDA RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 32.7 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST.  GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
BERMUDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH FASTER WEAKENING
FORECAST TO OCCUR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN GONZALO MOVES OVER
COOLER WATERS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.  A SUSTAINED WIND OF 60 MPH...96 KM/H AND A GUST TO
74 MPH...119 KM/H WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT THE BERMUDA AIRPORT. A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 84 MPH...135 KM/H AND A GUST TO 119 MPH...191 KM/H
WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED OBSERVATION SITE AT
COMMISSIONER`S POINT BERMUDA.  A SUSTAINED WIND OF 58 MPH...
94 KM/H AND A GUST TO 97 MPH...156 KM/H WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT
AN ELEVATED OBSERVATION SITE AT ST. DAVIDS BERMUDA NEAR THE AIRPORT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB...28.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME SHORTLY ON
BERMUDA AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL PASSES NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE ISLAND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON
THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT
STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE
EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AND BERMUDA. SWELLS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



000
WTNT23 KNHC 180253
TCMAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
0300 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON BERMUDA SHORTLY...
AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL
FOLLOW FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTERWARDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N  64.5W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  951 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 150SE 110SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..260NE 320SE 220SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N  64.5W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N  64.9W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.9N  62.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 41.2N  57.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 47.0N  49.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT...100NE 160SE  90SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 270SE 140SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 52.0N  39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 140SE 120SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 270SE 180SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 57.0N  11.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 300SE 400SW 480NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.7N  64.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





000
WTNT23 KNHC 180253
TCMAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
0300 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON BERMUDA SHORTLY...
AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL
FOLLOW FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTERWARDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N  64.5W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  951 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 150SE 110SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..260NE 320SE 220SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N  64.5W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N  64.9W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.9N  62.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 41.2N  57.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 47.0N  49.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT...100NE 160SE  90SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 270SE 140SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 52.0N  39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 140SE 120SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 270SE 180SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 57.0N  11.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 300SE 400SW 480NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.7N  64.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ35 KNHC 180252
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...TRUDY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 99.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.0 WEST. TRUDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H.  A SLOW NORTHWARD
TRACK IS LIKELY...WITH TRUDY EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH WEAKENING
EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOW LIKELY SPREADING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE
STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO.  THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS WAVES FROM TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...LIKELY
CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



000
WTPZ25 KNHC 180251
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
0300 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  99.0W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  99.0W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  99.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.5N  99.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  20SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.8N  99.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  40SE  20SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.0N  99.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N  99.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





000
WTPZ25 KNHC 180251
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
0300 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  99.0W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  99.0W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  99.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.5N  99.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  20SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.8N  99.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  40SE  20SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.0N  99.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N  99.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





000
WTPZ25 KNHC 180251
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
0300 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  99.0W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  99.0W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  99.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.5N  99.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  20SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.8N  99.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  40SE  20SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.0N  99.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N  99.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





000
WTPZ25 KNHC 180251
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
0300 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  99.0W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  99.0W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  99.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.5N  99.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  20SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.8N  99.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  40SE  20SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.0N  99.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N  99.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





000
WTPA35 PHFO 180250
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
500 PM HST FRI OCT 17 2014

...ANA PASSING SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AND REMAINING A POTENTIAL
THREAT TO THE STATE OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 156.6W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI...
  AND KAHOOLAWE.
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS...DEPENDING ON WHICH ISLAND. THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII WILL
REMAIN CLOSEST TO ANA THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE REST OF THE
STATE DURING THE WEEKEND.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 156.6 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A CONTINUED TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THIS
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS ABOUT 150 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT AND ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE REST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE LARGE SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD UP THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. SURF
PRODUCED BY THESE SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SHORELINES THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH SURF WILL
DIMINISH EARLIER ON THE BIG ISLAND.

RAINFALL...HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA MAY REACH THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN 6 AND 8 INCHES EXPECTED AND ISOLATED TOTALS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE OTHER ISLANDS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE







000
WTPA35 PHFO 180250
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
500 PM HST FRI OCT 17 2014

...ANA PASSING SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AND REMAINING A POTENTIAL
THREAT TO THE STATE OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 156.6W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI...
  AND KAHOOLAWE.
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS...DEPENDING ON WHICH ISLAND. THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII WILL
REMAIN CLOSEST TO ANA THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE REST OF THE
STATE DURING THE WEEKEND.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 156.6 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A CONTINUED TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THIS
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS ABOUT 150 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT AND ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE REST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE LARGE SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD UP THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. SURF
PRODUCED BY THESE SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SHORELINES THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH SURF WILL
DIMINISH EARLIER ON THE BIG ISLAND.

RAINFALL...HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA MAY REACH THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN 6 AND 8 INCHES EXPECTED AND ISOLATED TOTALS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE OTHER ISLANDS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE







000
WTPA35 PHFO 180250
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
500 PM HST FRI OCT 17 2014

...ANA PASSING SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AND REMAINING A POTENTIAL
THREAT TO THE STATE OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 156.6W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI...
  AND KAHOOLAWE.
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS...DEPENDING ON WHICH ISLAND. THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII WILL
REMAIN CLOSEST TO ANA THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE REST OF THE
STATE DURING THE WEEKEND.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 156.6 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A CONTINUED TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THIS
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS ABOUT 150 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT AND ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE REST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE LARGE SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD UP THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. SURF
PRODUCED BY THESE SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SHORELINES THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH SURF WILL
DIMINISH EARLIER ON THE BIG ISLAND.

RAINFALL...HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA MAY REACH THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN 6 AND 8 INCHES EXPECTED AND ISOLATED TOTALS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE OTHER ISLANDS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE







000
WTPA35 PHFO 180250
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
500 PM HST FRI OCT 17 2014

...ANA PASSING SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AND REMAINING A POTENTIAL
THREAT TO THE STATE OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 156.6W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI...
  AND KAHOOLAWE.
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS...DEPENDING ON WHICH ISLAND. THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII WILL
REMAIN CLOSEST TO ANA THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE REST OF THE
STATE DURING THE WEEKEND.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 156.6 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A CONTINUED TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THIS
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS ABOUT 150 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT AND ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE REST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE LARGE SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD UP THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. SURF
PRODUCED BY THESE SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SHORELINES THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH SURF WILL
DIMINISH EARLIER ON THE BIG ISLAND.

RAINFALL...HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA MAY REACH THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN 6 AND 8 INCHES EXPECTED AND ISOLATED TOTALS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE OTHER ISLANDS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE







000
WTPA25 PHFO 180250
TCMCP5

HURRICANE ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
0300 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI...
  AND KAHOOLAWE.
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS...DEPENDING ON WHICH ISLAND. THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII WILL
REMAIN CLOSEST TO ANA THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE REST OF THE
STATE DURING THE WEEKEND.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 156.6W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 45NE  30SE  20SW  45NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  30SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  60SE  50SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 156.6W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 156.2W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.8N 157.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.9N 159.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.6N 160.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.1N 161.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  25SW  75NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.0N 164.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 22.6N 166.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 24.2N 168.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 156.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER WROE







000
AXNT20 KNHC 180001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO AT 17/2300 UTC IS NEAR 32.0N
65.0W OR ABOUT 22 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB. THE MAXIMUM
ESTIMATED WIND SPEED IS 100 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GONZALO IS
A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND
SCALE.  SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST...BUT GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO
BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA.
FASTER WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SATURDAY ONCE GONZALO
MOVES OVER COOL WATERS. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-
36N BETWEEN 60W-67W. PUBLIC ADVISORIES FOR HURRICANE GONZALO ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES FOR HURRICANE GONZALO ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 14N34W TO 3N34W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY
SHOW A SLOT OF DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN AND IMMEDIATE EASTERN
ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE AT THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. THE DRY
AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS IS ALSO CAPTURED BY THE GOES-R RGB
AIRMASS IMAGERY. AHEAD OF THE WAVE...A DEEP LAYER MOIST
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS WELL AS
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 34W-43W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE EASTERN ATLC
WATERS NEAR 9N13W AND THEN CONTINUES ALONG 8N19W TO 7N24W...THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THERE TO 7N31W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 3N-13N BETWEEN 20W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD MIDDLE-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED ON THE GULF...THUS
SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 27N90W. SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DEEP
LAYER DRY DOMINATING THE BASIN N OF 23N...WHICH IS FAVORING
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. IN THE SW BASIN...SSMI TPW IMAGERY
SHOW HIGH MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE E PAC WATERS AND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY.
THIS MOIST AIR IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 20N. LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BASIN BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OVER EASTERN CUBA AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WATERS W OF 82W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLC WATERS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO A BASE OVER THE SOUTHERN-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE BASIN
COINCIDES WITH A TONGUE OF MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE SSMI TPW
IMAGERY WHICH ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. IN THE SW BASIN...THE MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORT
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 13N BETWEEN 76W-
81W. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER
ELSEWHERE. A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5-10 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WATERS EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD TO A BASE OVER THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE
PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE BASIN COINCIDES WITH A TONGUE OF
MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY WHICH ENHANCES
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE BASIN IS MAJOR HURRICANE GONZALO THAT
IS DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. MOST THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE IS N OF THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION WITH A RAINBAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EXTENDING TO 24N BETWEEN 60W-66W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE SUPPORT A 1010 MB LOW
NEAR 20N47W FROM WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO 13N49W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 44W-50W.
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 30N15W TO 25N27W
TO 25N39W WHERE A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO 27N47W TO 26N54W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE SHEAR LINE BETWEEN 38W-43W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 180001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO AT 17/2300 UTC IS NEAR 32.0N
65.0W OR ABOUT 22 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB. THE MAXIMUM
ESTIMATED WIND SPEED IS 100 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GONZALO IS
A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND
SCALE.  SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST...BUT GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO
BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA.
FASTER WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SATURDAY ONCE GONZALO
MOVES OVER COOL WATERS. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-
36N BETWEEN 60W-67W. PUBLIC ADVISORIES FOR HURRICANE GONZALO ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES FOR HURRICANE GONZALO ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 14N34W TO 3N34W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY
SHOW A SLOT OF DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN AND IMMEDIATE EASTERN
ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE AT THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. THE DRY
AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS IS ALSO CAPTURED BY THE GOES-R RGB
AIRMASS IMAGERY. AHEAD OF THE WAVE...A DEEP LAYER MOIST
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS WELL AS
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 34W-43W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE EASTERN ATLC
WATERS NEAR 9N13W AND THEN CONTINUES ALONG 8N19W TO 7N24W...THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THERE TO 7N31W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 3N-13N BETWEEN 20W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD MIDDLE-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED ON THE GULF...THUS
SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 27N90W. SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DEEP
LAYER DRY DOMINATING THE BASIN N OF 23N...WHICH IS FAVORING
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. IN THE SW BASIN...SSMI TPW IMAGERY
SHOW HIGH MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE E PAC WATERS AND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY.
THIS MOIST AIR IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 20N. LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BASIN BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OVER EASTERN CUBA AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WATERS W OF 82W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLC WATERS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO A BASE OVER THE SOUTHERN-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE BASIN
COINCIDES WITH A TONGUE OF MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE SSMI TPW
IMAGERY WHICH ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. IN THE SW BASIN...THE MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORT
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 13N BETWEEN 76W-
81W. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER
ELSEWHERE. A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5-10 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WATERS EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD TO A BASE OVER THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE
PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE BASIN COINCIDES WITH A TONGUE OF
MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY WHICH ENHANCES
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE BASIN IS MAJOR HURRICANE GONZALO THAT
IS DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. MOST THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE IS N OF THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION WITH A RAINBAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EXTENDING TO 24N BETWEEN 60W-66W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE SUPPORT A 1010 MB LOW
NEAR 20N47W FROM WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO 13N49W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 44W-50W.
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 30N15W TO 25N27W
TO 25N39W WHERE A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO 27N47W TO 26N54W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE SHEAR LINE BETWEEN 38W-43W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
WTPA35 PHFO 180000
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  17A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
200 PM HST FRI OCT 17 2014

...ANA PASSING SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AND REMAINS A POTENTIAL
THREAT TO THE STATE OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 156.2W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SSW OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...27 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI...
  AND KAHOOLAWE.
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 48 HOURS...
DEPENDING ON WHICH ISLAND. THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII WILL REMAIN
CLOSEST TO ANA INTO TONIGHT.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 156.2 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...27 KM/H. A SLIGHT TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY. A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THIS
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS ABOUT 115 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT AND ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE REST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 20 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN END OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
THESE LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD UP THE ISLAND CHAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY
BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SHORELINES BEGINNING
LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY...AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN
SOME AREAS.

RAINFALL...HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA MAY REACH THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN 6 AND 8 INCHES EXPECTED AND ISOLATED TOTALS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE OTHER ISLANDS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE






000
WTPA35 PHFO 180000
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  17A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
200 PM HST FRI OCT 17 2014

...ANA PASSING SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AND REMAINS A POTENTIAL
THREAT TO THE STATE OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 156.2W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SSW OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...27 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI...
  AND KAHOOLAWE.
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 48 HOURS...
DEPENDING ON WHICH ISLAND. THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII WILL REMAIN
CLOSEST TO ANA INTO TONIGHT.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 156.2 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...27 KM/H. A SLIGHT TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY. A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THIS
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS ABOUT 115 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT AND ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE REST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 20 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN END OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
THESE LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD UP THE ISLAND CHAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY
BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SHORELINES BEGINNING
LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY...AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN
SOME AREAS.

RAINFALL...HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA MAY REACH THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN 6 AND 8 INCHES EXPECTED AND ISOLATED TOTALS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE OTHER ISLANDS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE







000
WTNT33 KNHC 172359
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  22A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
800 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014

...BERMUDA IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LARGE EYE OF DANGEROUS
HURRICANE GONZALO...
...DAMAGING WINDS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED
AGAIN AFTER THE EYE PASSES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 64.9W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME WITHIN THE