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000
WTCA82 TJSJ 011343
HLSSPN

BOLETIN - SE REQUIERE DIFUSION INMEDIATA
COMUNICADO LOCAL SOBRE TORMENTA TROPICAL BERTHA
908 AM AST VIERNES 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

...AVION CAZAHURACAN SE APRESTA A INVESTIGAR BERTHA...

.INFORMACION NUEVA...
SE HA ACTUALIZADO LA POSICION

.AREAS AFECTADAS...
ESTE COMUNICADO LOCAL PROVEE INFORMACION IMPORTANTE Y
RECOMENDACIONES PARA LAS PERSONAS E INTERESES MARITIMOS EN LAS AREAS
MENCIONADAS Y EN LAS AGUAS COSTERAS DE PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS
VIRGENES AMERICANAS.

.VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA TODO PUERTO
RICO...INCLUYENDO CULEBRA...VIEQUES...Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES
AMERICANAS.

PARA LOS INTERESES MARITIMOS...UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN
EFECTO PARA TODAS LAS AGUAS COSTERAS DE PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS
VIRGENES AMERICANAS.

.INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA...
A LAS 8 AM AST...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BERTHA ESTABA
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 57.9 OESTE.
ESTO ES COMO A 650 MILLAS AL ESTE SURESTE DE PONCE PUERTO RICO...O
COMO A 540 MILLAS AL ESTE SURESTE DE SANTA CRUZ...ISLAS VIRGENES
AMERICANAS. EL MOVIMIENTO DE LA TORMENTA ERA OESTE NOROESTE O 290
GRADOS A 20 MPH. LA INTENSIDAD DE LA TORMENTA ERA DE 45 MPH.

.RESUMEN DE LA SITUACION...
SE ESPERA QUE TORMENTA TROPICAL BERTHA SE MOVERA HACIA EL OESTE
NOROESTE A 20 MPH APROXIMADAMENTE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DOS DIAS
PASANDO AL SUR DE PONCE TARDE EL SABADO. LAS LLUVIAS SE EXTENDERAN
SOBRE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS TARDE EL VIERNES EN LA NOCHE Y
ALCANZARAN EL ESTE DE PUERTO RICO AL AMANECER DEL SABADO. LLUVIA
FUERTE CONTINUARA OCASIONALMENTE HASTA EL SABADO AL ANOCHECER. SE
ESPERAN DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA CON CANTIDADES MAYORES HASTA DE
6 PULGADAS POSIBLES SOBRE CAYEY Y LA SIERRA DE LUQUILLO. ADEMAS...SE
ESPERAN RAFAGAS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESPECIALMENTE EN
TURBONADAS Y BANDAS DE LLUVIA. TORNADOS AISLADOS SERAN POSIBLES EL
SABADO EN LA TARDE SOBRE EL SURESTE DE PUERTO RICO...LAS ISLAS
VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y LAS AGUAS COSTERAS ADYACENTES CUANDO LOS
VIENTOS CAMBIEN DEL SURESTE.

MEDIDAS DE PRECAUCION Y PREPARATIVOS...
PARA AQUELLOS BAJO VIGILANCIA O AVISO...ESTE ES EL MOMENTO PARA
COMPLETAR LOS PREPARATIVOS DE ACUERDO A SU PLAN DE CONTINGENCIA PARA
SU HOGAR O NEGOCIO. DESALOJE SI ASI SE LE INDICA POR LOS OFICIALES
LOCALES...O SI SI POROPIEDAD ES VULNERABLE A VERSE AFECTADO POR LOS
ALTOS VIENTOS O A INUNDARSE.

PARA LOS INTERESES EN LOS PUERTOS...MUELLES Y MARINAS...ES
NECESARIO QUE COMPLETE SUS PREPARATIVOS DE ACUERDO A SU PLAN
DE CONTINGENCIA EN CASO DE CICLON TROPICAL. SI VIVE EN EL
BOTE...COMIENCE A ASEGURAR SU EMBARCACION Y PLANIFIQUE PARA
ASEGURARLO EN UN REFUGIO. NO OLVIDE TOMAR EN CONSIDERACION EL
POSIBLE CIERRE DE PUENTES U OTRAS VIAS DE TRANSPORTACION.

REFERENTE A LAS AGUAS COSTERAS BAJO AVISO...LSS EMBARCACIONES
PEQUENAS DEBEN ESTAR YA AMARADOS O ASEGURADOS.

PARA INFORMACION ADICIONAL SOBRE PREPARATIVOS...
FAVOR REFERIRSE A LA INFORMACION EMITIDA POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL
SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA Y LA AGENCIA PARA EL MANEJO DE
EMERGENCIAS.

&&

.PROXIMA ACTUALIZACION...
EL PROXIMO COMUNICADO SERA EMITIDO POR EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN A LAS 12:30 PM AST...O ANTES DE SER
NECESARIO.

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-012115-
SAN JUAN Y VECINDAD-NORESTE-SURESTE-ESTE INTERIOR-NORTE CENTRAL-
CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE Y VECINDAD-NOROESTE-OESTE INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ Y
VECINDAD-SUROESTE-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-SAN THOMAS/SAN JOHN/ISLAS
ADYACENTES-SANTA CRUZ-
908 AM AST VIERNES 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

...AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO...

MEDIDAS DE PRECAUCION Y PREPARATIVOS...
LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEJER LA VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN COMPLETARSE
ANTES DE QUE SE DETERIOREN LAS CONDICIONES. EL COMIENZO DE VIENTOS
EN RAFAGAS Y FUERTES LLUVIAS PUEDE HACER PELIGROSAS LLEVAR ACABO
ACTIVIDADES AL AIRE LIBRE. ASEGURE OBJECTOS SUELTOS EN EL PATIO YA
QUE ESTO PUDIERAN CONVERTIRSE EN PROYECTILES. SI VIVE EN UNA CASA
MOVIL...MUEVASE A UNA ESTRUCTURA MAS SUBSTANCIAL.

...PROBABILIDAD DE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL/HURACAN...
LA MAYOR PROBABILIDAD DE VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
SERA SOBRE LAS AGUAS COSTERAS DEL CARIBE CENTREAL Y ESTAN DE 50 A 55
POR CIENTO.

...INUDACIONES TIERRA ADENTRO...
LLUVIA...BERTHA DEBERA PRODUCIR ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3
PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 6 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE
PORCIONES DE PUERTO RICO...Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES HASTA LA NOCHE DEL
SABADO. CANTIDADES LOCALMENTE MAS ALTOS SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE
LAS LADERAS DEL SUR Y EL SURESTE DE PUERTO RICO AL MOVERSE LA
TORMENTA A TRAVES DEL AREA.

...VIENTOS...
A MEDIDA QUE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BERTHA SE ACERQUE AL AREA... SE
ESPERA QUE VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL COMIENZEN EN LA
TARDE DEL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN DE 35 A 45
MPH CON RAFAGAS HASTA 50 MPH.

...TORNADOS...
TORNADOS AISLADOS SON POSIBLES SABADO EN LA TARDE Y EL ANCOHECER AL
CAMBIAR LOS VIENTOS HACIA EL SURESTE CON LAS BANDAS DE LLUVIA.  $$

AMZ710-712-715-722-725-732-735-741-742-745-012115-
AGUAS DEL ATLANTICO DE PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS
DESDE 10 MILLAS NAUTICAS HASTA 19.5 NORTE-
AGUAS COSTERAS DEL NORTE DE PUERTO RICO HASTA 10 MILLAS NAUTICAS MAR
AFUERA-
AGUAS COSTERAS DEL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y CULEBRA
HASTA 10 MILLAS NAUTICAS MAR AFUERA-
PASAJE DE ANEGADA HACIA EL SUR HASTA 17 NORTE-
AGUAS COSTERAS DEL SUR DE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS VIEQUES Y EL
ESTE DE PUERTO RICO HASTA 10 MILLAS NAUTICAS MAR AFUERA-AGUAS DEL
CARIBE DE PUERTO RICO DESDE 10 MILLAS NAUTICAS HASTA 17 NORTE-
AGUAS COSTERAS DEL SUR DE PUERTO RICO HASTA 10 MILLAS NAUTICAS MAR
AFUERA-
PASAJE DE MONA HACIA EL SUR HASTA 17 NORTE-
AGUAS COSTERAS DEL NOROESTE DE PUERTO RICO HASTA 10 MILLAS NAUTICAS
MAR AFUERA-
AGUAS COSTERAS DEL SUROESTE DE PUERTO RICO HASTA 10 MILLAS NAUTICAS
MAR AFUERA-
908 AM AST VIERNES 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

...AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO...

MEDIDAS DE PRECAUCION Y PREPARATIVOS...
LOS DUENOS O CAPITANES DE EMBARCACIONES DEBEN COMPLETAR EL AMARRE O
ASEGURAR SU EMBARCACION.

...PROBABILIDAD DE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...
LAS PROBABILIDADES MAYORES DE VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SON SOBRE LAS AGUAS COSTERAS DEL CARIBE Y ENTRE 45 Y 55 POR
CIENTO.

...VIENTOS Y OLEAJE...
A MEDIDA QUE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BERTHA SE ACERQUE AL AREA...LA
AMENAZA DE VIENTOS FUERTES SOSTENIDOS AUMENTARA. RAFAGAS DE FUERZA
DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ESPECIALMENTE PROBABLES EN TURBONADAS Y EN
BANDAS DE LLUVIA. SE ESPERAN OLEAJE ENTRE 9 Y 11 PIES.

...TROMBAS MARINAS...
TROMBAS MARINAS SON POSIBLES DURANTE LA TARDE DEL SABADO Y DURANTE
LAS HORAS DEL ANOCHECER A MEDIDA QUE LOS VIENTOS GIREN HACIA EL
SURESTE CON LAS BANDAS DE LLUVIA.

$$




000
WTCA82 TJSJ 011308
HLSSJU

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
908 AM AST FRI AUG 1 2014

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ABOUT TO INVESTIGATE BERTHA...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NEW POSITION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
ALL OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.6N...LONGITUDE 57.9W. THIS WAS ABOUT 650 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PONCE PR...OR ABOUT 540 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
SAINT CROIX VI. STORM MOTION WAS WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 45 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND 20 MPH DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS PASSING SOUTH OF PONCE
LATE SATURDAY. RAINS WILL OVERSPREAD THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND REACH EASTERN PUERTO RICO AROUND DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYEY AND
LUQUILLO MOUNTAIN RANGES. GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS AND RAIN BANDS. ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST
PUERTO RICO...VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS ONCE
THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF
DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME IS
VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE
PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL
PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. *

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN AROUND 1230 PM AST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-012115-
/O.CON.TJSJ.TR.W.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
908 AM AST FRI AUG 1 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETED BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. THE ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINS CAN CAUSE OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES TO BECOME DANGEROUS.
SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU
LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...LEAVE IT FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS AND ARE BETWEEN 50 TO 55
PERCENT.

...INLAND FLOODING...
RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AS THE STORM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL STORM BERTHA APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH ANY RAIN BANDS.

$$

AMZ710-712-715-722-725-732-735-741-742-745-012115-
/O.CON.TJSJ.TR.W.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
908 AM AST FRI AUG 1 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION
THE SECURING OF THEIR CRAFT.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS AND ARE BETWEEN 45 TO 55 PERCENT.

...WINDS AND SEAS...

AS TROPICAL STORM BERTHA MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS AND IN RAIN BANDS. SEAS 9 TO
11 FEET ARE EXPECTED.

...WATERSPOUTS...
WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH ANY RAIN BANDS.

$$






000
WTCA82 TJSJ 011308
HLSSJU

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
908 AM AST FRI AUG 1 2014

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ABOUT TO INVESTIGATE BERTHA...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NEW POSITION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
ALL OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.6N...LONGITUDE 57.9W. THIS WAS ABOUT 650 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PONCE PR...OR ABOUT 540 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
SAINT CROIX VI. STORM MOTION WAS WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 45 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND 20 MPH DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS PASSING SOUTH OF PONCE
LATE SATURDAY. RAINS WILL OVERSPREAD THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND REACH EASTERN PUERTO RICO AROUND DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYEY AND
LUQUILLO MOUNTAIN RANGES. GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS AND RAIN BANDS. ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST
PUERTO RICO...VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS ONCE
THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF
DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME IS
VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE
PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL
PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. *

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN AROUND 1230 PM AST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-012115-
/O.CON.TJSJ.TR.W.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
908 AM AST FRI AUG 1 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETED BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. THE ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINS CAN CAUSE OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES TO BECOME DANGEROUS.
SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU
LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...LEAVE IT FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS AND ARE BETWEEN 50 TO 55
PERCENT.

...INLAND FLOODING...
RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AS THE STORM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL STORM BERTHA APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH ANY RAIN BANDS.

$$

AMZ710-712-715-722-725-732-735-741-742-745-012115-
/O.CON.TJSJ.TR.W.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
908 AM AST FRI AUG 1 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION
THE SECURING OF THEIR CRAFT.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS AND ARE BETWEEN 45 TO 55 PERCENT.

...WINDS AND SEAS...

AS TROPICAL STORM BERTHA MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS AND IN RAIN BANDS. SEAS 9 TO
11 FEET ARE EXPECTED.

...WATERSPOUTS...
WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH ANY RAIN BANDS.

$$







000
WTCA43 TJSJ 011203 CCA
TCPSP3

BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL BERTA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO   2A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL032014
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM AST VIERNES 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

...AVION CAZAHURACAN SE APRESTA A INVESTIGAR BERTHA...
...AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EMITIDO PARA MARTINIQUE......


RESUMEN DE LAS 8:00 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMACION
----------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...13.6 NORTE 57.9 OESTE
CERCA DE 110 MILLAS...175 KILOMETROS AL ESTE NORESTE DE BARBADOS
CERCA DE 220 MILLAS...355 KILOMETROS AL ESTE SURESTE DE MARTINIQUE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE NOROESTE O 290 GRADOS A 20 MPH...31
KILOMETROS POR HORA
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1008 MILIBARES...29.77 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO EMITIDO PARA PUERTO
RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS.

EL GOBIERNO DE ANTIGUA Y BARBUDA HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS.

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PUDIERA REQUERIRSE PARA MARTINICA MAS
TARDE HOY.

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BARBADOS
* SANTA LUCIA
* DOMINICA
* MARTINIQUE
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS
* ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* SAN VINCENT Y LAS GRANADINAS

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES
DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO...EN ESTE CASO...DENTRO
DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS.

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN
CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO
VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.

LOS INTERESES EN EL NORESTE DEL MAR CARIBE Y LA ESPANOLA DEBEN ESTAR
ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA EN LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS...
INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR ESTAR
ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO
NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA
FUERA DE ESTADOS UNIDOS...FAVOR ESTAR ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS
EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.


DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 8:00 AM AST...1200 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
BERTHA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.6 NORTE...LONGITUD
57.9 OESTE. BERTHA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20
MPH...31 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO
GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA
PRONOSTICADA...SE ESPERA QUE BERTHA PASE CERCA O AL NORTE DE
BARBADOS DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS HORAS Y SE MUEVA A TRAVES DEL
CENTRO DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES ESTA NOCHE...Y HACIA EL NORESTE DEL
CARIBE EL SABADO.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS
POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. NO SE PRONOSTICA CAMBIO
SIGNIFICATIVO EN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS. UN
AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA EN
RUTO A INVESTIGAR BERTHA.

LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 45
MILLAS...75 KILOMETROS DE SU CENTRO.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MILIBARES...29.77
PULGADAS.


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
VIENTOS...SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ALCANCEN
PRIMERO EL AREA BAJO AVISO PARA EL MEDIODIA DE HOY...DIFICULTANDO O
TORNADO PELIGROSOS LOS PREPARATIVOS EN EL EXTERIOR. CONDICIONES DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA EN PUERTO
RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS EL SABADO.

LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE BERTHA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3
PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 6 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE
AREAS DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...PUERTO RICO...Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES
AMERICANAS HASTA EL SABADO EN LA NOCHE.


PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...11:00 AM AST.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN






000
WTCA43 TJSJ 011203 CCA
TCPSP3

BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL BERTA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO   2A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL032014
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM AST VIERNES 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

...AVION CAZAHURACAN SE APRESTA A INVESTIGAR BERTHA...
...AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EMITIDO PARA MARTINIQUE......


RESUMEN DE LAS 8:00 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMACION
----------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...13.6 NORTE 57.9 OESTE
CERCA DE 110 MILLAS...175 KILOMETROS AL ESTE NORESTE DE BARBADOS
CERCA DE 220 MILLAS...355 KILOMETROS AL ESTE SURESTE DE MARTINIQUE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE NOROESTE O 290 GRADOS A 20 MPH...31
KILOMETROS POR HORA
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1008 MILIBARES...29.77 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO EMITIDO PARA PUERTO
RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS.

EL GOBIERNO DE ANTIGUA Y BARBUDA HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS.

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PUDIERA REQUERIRSE PARA MARTINICA MAS
TARDE HOY.

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BARBADOS
* SANTA LUCIA
* DOMINICA
* MARTINIQUE
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS
* ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* SAN VINCENT Y LAS GRANADINAS

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES
DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO...EN ESTE CASO...DENTRO
DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS.

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN
CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO
VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.

LOS INTERESES EN EL NORESTE DEL MAR CARIBE Y LA ESPANOLA DEBEN ESTAR
ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA EN LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS...
INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR ESTAR
ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO
NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA
FUERA DE ESTADOS UNIDOS...FAVOR ESTAR ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS
EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.


DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 8:00 AM AST...1200 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
BERTHA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.6 NORTE...LONGITUD
57.9 OESTE. BERTHA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20
MPH...31 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO
GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA
PRONOSTICADA...SE ESPERA QUE BERTHA PASE CERCA O AL NORTE DE
BARBADOS DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS HORAS Y SE MUEVA A TRAVES DEL
CENTRO DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES ESTA NOCHE...Y HACIA EL NORESTE DEL
CARIBE EL SABADO.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS
POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. NO SE PRONOSTICA CAMBIO
SIGNIFICATIVO EN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS. UN
AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA EN
RUTO A INVESTIGAR BERTHA.

LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 45
MILLAS...75 KILOMETROS DE SU CENTRO.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MILIBARES...29.77
PULGADAS.


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
VIENTOS...SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ALCANCEN
PRIMERO EL AREA BAJO AVISO PARA EL MEDIODIA DE HOY...DIFICULTANDO O
TORNADO PELIGROSOS LOS PREPARATIVOS EN EL EXTERIOR. CONDICIONES DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA EN PUERTO
RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS EL SABADO.

LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE BERTHA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3
PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 6 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE
AREAS DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...PUERTO RICO...Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES
AMERICANAS HASTA EL SABADO EN LA NOCHE.


PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...11:00 AM AST.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN





000
AXNT20 KNHC 011157
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 13.6N 57.9W AT 01/1200
UTC OR ABOUT 96 NM ENE OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 191 NM ESE OF
MARTINIQUE MOVING WNW AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE.
SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N22W TO 20N22W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED 700 MB TROUGH
ALONG 22W WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY CENTERED
NEAR A 1014 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N. THE SOUTHERN
VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS FOCUSED ON A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
11N22N AND REMAINS A CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-12N
BETWEEN 21W-24W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N35W TO 17N39W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. 700 MB TROUGHING EXTENDS N-NW FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE WAVE WITH AN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED TO THE
SE OF THE WAVE. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N33N
AND LARGELY REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 34W-37W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N62W TO 19N65W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE W OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA AND LARGELY
SURROUNDED BY THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE NE OF THE WAVE AXIS.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE US/UK
VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO
A 1013 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N22W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N33W
TO 04N39W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N39W TO 04N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
06N-09N BETWEEN 23W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING
OVER THE SE CONUS. A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N84W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED S-
SE FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA THEN
SW TO THE GULF COAST NEAR FORT MYERS. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
25N83W AND BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH W-SW TO 23N89W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE OF ENERGY IS NOTED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION THAT
IS SUPPORTIVE OF A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS INLAND EASTERN
TEXAS NEAR 31N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
NOTED ON DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY N OF 28N BETWEEN 92W-97W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
VERY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED IN
THE VICINITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION NEAR 30N89W.
THIS RIDGING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF PROVIDING E-SE
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE NOTED OVER MUCH
OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING FOCUSED ON AN ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N83W...AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 11N75W...AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PROVIDING NW FLOW ALOFT FOR THE NE CARIBBEAN
CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 22N63W. ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OCCURRING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW N OF 19N BETWEEN 76W-85W. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 81W-
86W...IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 10N. FARTHER EAST...
UPPER LEVEL NW TO W FLOW IS PROVIDING MOSTLY STABLE CONDITIONS
FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EVEN AS A TROPICAL WAVE IS
ANALYZED ALONG 64W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING S OF
13N E OF 64W...AND ACROSS THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING.
FINALLY...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PERSIST WITH THE STRONGEST
AREA OF WINDS EXPECTED S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W-78W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 22N63W AND AN APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 64W. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXPECTED
TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AN OVERALL UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS REMAINING
LARGELY N OF 30N THAT SUPPORTS A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE
EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 31N83W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE
FROM THE LOW TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OCCURRING S OF THE FRONT FROM 29N BETWEEN 77W-81W IN
AN AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 22N63W GENERATING AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN 63W-73W. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RETROGRADING LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N49W THAT
IS SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE FOCUSED ON
A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N46W. THE PRIMARY SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 26N50W THEN W-NW TO 28N60W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. TO THE NORTH OF THE PRIMARY BOUNDARY...ANOTHER WAVE OF
ENERGY MANIFESTS ITSELF AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
29N49W W-NW TO 32N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY. FINALLY...THE
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE PROVIDING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS N OF 20N E OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 011157
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 13.6N 57.9W AT 01/1200
UTC OR ABOUT 96 NM ENE OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 191 NM ESE OF
MARTINIQUE MOVING WNW AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE.
SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N22W TO 20N22W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED 700 MB TROUGH
ALONG 22W WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY CENTERED
NEAR A 1014 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N. THE SOUTHERN
VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS FOCUSED ON A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
11N22N AND REMAINS A CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-12N
BETWEEN 21W-24W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N35W TO 17N39W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. 700 MB TROUGHING EXTENDS N-NW FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE WAVE WITH AN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED TO THE
SE OF THE WAVE. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N33N
AND LARGELY REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 34W-37W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N62W TO 19N65W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE W OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA AND LARGELY
SURROUNDED BY THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE NE OF THE WAVE AXIS.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE US/UK
VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO
A 1013 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N22W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N33W
TO 04N39W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N39W TO 04N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
06N-09N BETWEEN 23W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING
OVER THE SE CONUS. A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N84W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED S-
SE FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA THEN
SW TO THE GULF COAST NEAR FORT MYERS. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
25N83W AND BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH W-SW TO 23N89W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE OF ENERGY IS NOTED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION THAT
IS SUPPORTIVE OF A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS INLAND EASTERN
TEXAS NEAR 31N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
NOTED ON DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY N OF 28N BETWEEN 92W-97W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
VERY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED IN
THE VICINITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION NEAR 30N89W.
THIS RIDGING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF PROVIDING E-SE
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE NOTED OVER MUCH
OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING FOCUSED ON AN ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N83W...AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 11N75W...AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PROVIDING NW FLOW ALOFT FOR THE NE CARIBBEAN
CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 22N63W. ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OCCURRING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW N OF 19N BETWEEN 76W-85W. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 81W-
86W...IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 10N. FARTHER EAST...
UPPER LEVEL NW TO W FLOW IS PROVIDING MOSTLY STABLE CONDITIONS
FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EVEN AS A TROPICAL WAVE IS
ANALYZED ALONG 64W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING S OF
13N E OF 64W...AND ACROSS THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING.
FINALLY...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PERSIST WITH THE STRONGEST
AREA OF WINDS EXPECTED S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W-78W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 22N63W AND AN APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 64W. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXPECTED
TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AN OVERALL UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS REMAINING
LARGELY N OF 30N THAT SUPPORTS A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE
EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 31N83W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE
FROM THE LOW TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OCCURRING S OF THE FRONT FROM 29N BETWEEN 77W-81W IN
AN AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 22N63W GENERATING AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN 63W-73W. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RETROGRADING LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N49W THAT
IS SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE FOCUSED ON
A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N46W. THE PRIMARY SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 26N50W THEN W-NW TO 28N60W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. TO THE NORTH OF THE PRIMARY BOUNDARY...ANOTHER WAVE OF
ENERGY MANIFESTS ITSELF AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
29N49W W-NW TO 32N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY. FINALLY...THE
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE PROVIDING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS N OF 20N E OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
WTNT33 KNHC 011153
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
800 AM AST FRI AUG 01 2014

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ABOUT TO INVESTIGATE BERTHA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR MARTINIQUE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 57.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
MARTINIQUE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA
* MARTINIQUE
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.9 WEST.  BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...31 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR NORTH OF
BARBADOS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT...AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ON
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE BERTHA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
WARNING AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 011148
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT VIERNES 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE
TORMENTA TROPICAL BERTHA...LOCALIZADA JUSTO AL ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES.

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

&&
ADVERTENCIAS PUBLICAS SOBRE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BERTHA SON EMITIDAS
BAJO EL ENCABEZAMIENTO DE WMO WTNT33 KNHC Y BAJO EL ENCABEZAMIENTO
DE AWIPS MIATCPAT3. PRONOSTICO/ADVERTENCIAS SON EMITIDOS BAJO EL
ENCABEZAMIENTO DE WMO WTNT23 KNHC Y BAJO EL ENCABEZAMIENTO DE AWIPS
MIATCMAT3.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 011148
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT VIERNES 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE
TORMENTA TROPICAL BERTHA...LOCALIZADA JUSTO AL ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES.

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

&&
ADVERTENCIAS PUBLICAS SOBRE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BERTHA SON EMITIDAS
BAJO EL ENCABEZAMIENTO DE WMO WTNT33 KNHC Y BAJO EL ENCABEZAMIENTO
DE AWIPS MIATCPAT3. PRONOSTICO/ADVERTENCIAS SON EMITIDOS BAJO EL
ENCABEZAMIENTO DE WMO WTNT23 KNHC Y BAJO EL ENCABEZAMIENTO DE AWIPS
MIATCMAT3.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN





000
ACPN50 PHFO 011147
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST FRI AUG 1 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. REMNANT LOW GENEVIEVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ITS REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 920 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU...HAWAII. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ON THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM. THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT MAY PERMIT THIS SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP ONLY SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES WEST NEAR 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.  IT IS GENERATING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

$$

KINEL




000
ABNT30 KNHC 011147
TWSAT

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 01 2014

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN IN JULY...
HURRICANE ARTHUR AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  BASED ON A 30-YEAR
(1981-2010) CLIMATOLOGY...ONE NAMED STORM FORMS IN THE BASIN IN
JULY...WITH A HURRICANE OCCURRING ABOUT ONCE EVERY OTHER YEAR.

IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...ACTIVITY
IN THE BASIN SO FAR IN 2014 HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/2014ATLAN.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME                DATES         MAX WIND (MPH)
---------------------------------------------------
H  ARTHUR            1-5 JUL           100
TD TWO             21-23 JUL            35
---------------------------------------------------

* DENOTES A STORM FOR WHICH THE POST-STORM ANALYSIS IS COMPLETE.

$$
HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT



000
ABNT30 KNHC 011147
TWSAT

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 01 2014

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN IN JULY...
HURRICANE ARTHUR AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  BASED ON A 30-YEAR
(1981-2010) CLIMATOLOGY...ONE NAMED STORM FORMS IN THE BASIN IN
JULY...WITH A HURRICANE OCCURRING ABOUT ONCE EVERY OTHER YEAR.

IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...ACTIVITY
IN THE BASIN SO FAR IN 2014 HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/2014ATLAN.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME                DATES         MAX WIND (MPH)
---------------------------------------------------
H  ARTHUR            1-5 JUL           100
TD TWO             21-23 JUL            35
---------------------------------------------------

* DENOTES A STORM FOR WHICH THE POST-STORM ANALYSIS IS COMPLETE.

$$
HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT



000
ABNT30 KNHC 011147
TWSAT

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 01 2014

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN IN JULY...
HURRICANE ARTHUR AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  BASED ON A 30-YEAR
(1981-2010) CLIMATOLOGY...ONE NAMED STORM FORMS IN THE BASIN IN
JULY...WITH A HURRICANE OCCURRING ABOUT ONCE EVERY OTHER YEAR.

IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...ACTIVITY
IN THE BASIN SO FAR IN 2014 HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/2014ATLAN.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME                DATES         MAX WIND (MPH)
---------------------------------------------------
H  ARTHUR            1-5 JUL           100
TD TWO             21-23 JUL            35
---------------------------------------------------

* DENOTES A STORM FOR WHICH THE POST-STORM ANALYSIS IS COMPLETE.

$$
HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT



000
ABNT30 KNHC 011147
TWSAT

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 01 2014

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN IN JULY...
HURRICANE ARTHUR AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  BASED ON A 30-YEAR
(1981-2010) CLIMATOLOGY...ONE NAMED STORM FORMS IN THE BASIN IN
JULY...WITH A HURRICANE OCCURRING ABOUT ONCE EVERY OTHER YEAR.

IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...ACTIVITY
IN THE BASIN SO FAR IN 2014 HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/2014ATLAN.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME                DATES         MAX WIND (MPH)
---------------------------------------------------
H  ARTHUR            1-5 JUL           100
TD TWO             21-23 JUL            35
---------------------------------------------------

* DENOTES A STORM FOR WHICH THE POST-STORM ANALYSIS IS COMPLETE.

$$
HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011142
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Iselle, located more than a thousand miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development of
this system during the next several days while it moves westward at
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

An area of low pressure located about 1275 miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii is producing minimal shower activity.
Upper-level winds are currently not conducive for development, but
they could become a little more favorable in a few days while the
low moves westward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Iselle are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.  Forecast/Advisories on Iselle are
issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Berg


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011142
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Iselle, located more than a thousand miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development of
this system during the next several days while it moves westward at
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

An area of low pressure located about 1275 miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii is producing minimal shower activity.
Upper-level winds are currently not conducive for development, but
they could become a little more favorable in a few days while the
low moves westward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Iselle are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.  Forecast/Advisories on Iselle are
issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Berg


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011142
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Iselle, located more than a thousand miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development of
this system during the next several days while it moves westward at
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

An area of low pressure located about 1275 miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii is producing minimal shower activity.
Upper-level winds are currently not conducive for development, but
they could become a little more favorable in a few days while the
low moves westward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Iselle are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.  Forecast/Advisories on Iselle are
issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Berg


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011142
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Iselle, located more than a thousand miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development of
this system during the next several days while it moves westward at
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

An area of low pressure located about 1275 miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii is producing minimal shower activity.
Upper-level winds are currently not conducive for development, but
they could become a little more favorable in a few days while the
low moves westward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Iselle are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.  Forecast/Advisories on Iselle are
issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Berg


000
ABNT20 KNHC 011138
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bertha located just east of the Lesser Antilles.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Bertha are issued under WMO
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011004
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF T.S. ISELLE AT 01/0900 UTC IS NEAR 13.5N 124.6W.
ISELLE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 300 DEGREES 9 KNOTS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM IN THE NE
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER OF ISELLE. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ24 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP4.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 107W/108W FROM 19N TO 10N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 105W AND
108W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN
100W AND 110W. A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS NOTED AT THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE ITCZ. A 04 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE
PASS ALONG WITH A CONCURRENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATED
LIMITED WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 08N94W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 11N110W 1008 MB TO T.S. ISELLE NEAR 13N120W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 12N138W 1008 MB TO BEYOND 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM NE
SEMICIRCLE OF LOW PRES NEAR 11N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND
130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE BETWEEN 120W AND
125W N OF 15N APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED NEAR 20N140W IS EXTENDING A RIDGE EASTWARD TO 120W IN
PLACE OF THE DISSIPATING TROUGH. THIS SHIFT IS CURTAILING THE
PUSH OF DRY AND STABLE AIR INTO THE TROPICS W OF 125W THAT HAD
BEEN IN PLACE A FEW DAYS AGO...AND ALLOWING EASTERN FLOW ALOFT
SOUTH OF 15N. AS A RESULT CONVECTION AROUND T.S. ISELLE...STILL
IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING FLOW TO THE SE OF THE RIDGE AXIS...
AS BEEN UNHINDERED AND CONTINUES BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.

FARTHER WEST...CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY AROUND THE
LOW NEAR 12N138W. HOWEVER AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED 20
TO 25 KT WINDS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE UP TO 9 FT IN MIXED SE AND NE
SWELL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS N OF THIS LOW AS IT DRIFTS W
OF 140W.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WIND SPEEDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KNOTS NOW.
THE FORECAST IS FOR NORTHEAST WINDS TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS TO NOON ON FRIDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL SLOW DOWN AFTER NOON...AND THEN REACH NEAR 20 KNOTS AGAIN
AROUND SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.


$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011004
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF T.S. ISELLE AT 01/0900 UTC IS NEAR 13.5N 124.6W.
ISELLE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 300 DEGREES 9 KNOTS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM IN THE NE
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER OF ISELLE. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ24 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP4.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 107W/108W FROM 19N TO 10N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 105W AND
108W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN
100W AND 110W. A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS NOTED AT THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE ITCZ. A 04 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE
PASS ALONG WITH A CONCURRENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATED
LIMITED WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 08N94W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 11N110W 1008 MB TO T.S. ISELLE NEAR 13N120W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 12N138W 1008 MB TO BEYOND 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM NE
SEMICIRCLE OF LOW PRES NEAR 11N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND
130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE BETWEEN 120W AND
125W N OF 15N APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED NEAR 20N140W IS EXTENDING A RIDGE EASTWARD TO 120W IN
PLACE OF THE DISSIPATING TROUGH. THIS SHIFT IS CURTAILING THE
PUSH OF DRY AND STABLE AIR INTO THE TROPICS W OF 125W THAT HAD
BEEN IN PLACE A FEW DAYS AGO...AND ALLOWING EASTERN FLOW ALOFT
SOUTH OF 15N. AS A RESULT CONVECTION AROUND T.S. ISELLE...STILL
IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING FLOW TO THE SE OF THE RIDGE AXIS...
AS BEEN UNHINDERED AND CONTINUES BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.

FARTHER WEST...CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY AROUND THE
LOW NEAR 12N138W. HOWEVER AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED 20
TO 25 KT WINDS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE UP TO 9 FT IN MIXED SE AND NE
SWELL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS N OF THIS LOW AS IT DRIFTS W
OF 140W.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WIND SPEEDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KNOTS NOW.
THE FORECAST IS FOR NORTHEAST WINDS TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS TO NOON ON FRIDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL SLOW DOWN AFTER NOON...AND THEN REACH NEAR 20 KNOTS AGAIN
AROUND SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.


$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 010939
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
800 PM CHST FRI AUG 1 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG TURNING NORTHWEST...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.7N 138.3E

ABOUT 360 MILES NORTH OF YAP
ABOUT 440 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 465 MILES WEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 490 MILES WEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 495 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW...290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
138.3 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. HALONG IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER. HALONG IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND MAY
BECOME A TYPHOON SATURDAY EVENING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

CHAN




000
WTPQ31 PGUM 010939
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
800 PM CHST FRI AUG 1 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG TURNING NORTHWEST...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.7N 138.3E

ABOUT 360 MILES NORTH OF YAP
ABOUT 440 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 465 MILES WEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 490 MILES WEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 495 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW...290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
138.3 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. HALONG IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER. HALONG IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND MAY
BECOME A TYPHOON SATURDAY EVENING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

CHAN





000
WTCA43 TJSJ 010858 CCA
TCPSP3

BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL BERTA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO   2
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL032014
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST VIERNES 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

...BERTHA CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE HACIA LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y EL
NORESTE DEL MAR CARIBE...
...AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EMITIDOS PARA PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS
ADYACENTES...


RESUMEN DE LAS 5:00 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMACION
----------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...13.0 NORTE 57.0 OESTE
CERCA DE 170 MILLAS...270 KILOMETROS AL ESTE DE BARBADOS
CERCA DE 295 MILLAS...470 KILOMETROS AL ESTE SURESTE DE MARTINICA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE NOROESTE O 290 GRADOS A 20 MPH...31
KILOMETROS POR HORA
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1008 MILIBARES...29.77 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO EMITIDO PARA PUERTO
RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS.

EL GOBIERNO DE ANTIGUA Y BARBUDA HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS.

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PUDIERA REQUERIRSE PARA MARTINICA MAS
TARDE HOY.

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BARBADOS
* SANTA LUCIA
* DOMINICA
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS
* ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* SAN VINCENT Y LAS GRANADINAS

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES
DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO...EN ESTE CASO...DENTRO
DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS.

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN
CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO
VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.

LOS INTERESES EN EL NORESTE DEL MAR CARIBE Y LA ESPANOLA DEBEN ESTAR
ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA EN LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS SOBRE
TIERRA...FAVOR ESTAR ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA
LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA. PARA INFORMACION
ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA FUERA DE ESTADOS UNIDOS...FAVOR ESTAR
ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DEL SERVICIO
NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.


DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 5:00 AM AST...0900 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
BERTHA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.0 NORTE...LONGITUD
57.0 OESTE. BERTHA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20
MPH...31 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO
GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA
PRONOSTICADA...SE ESPERA QUE BERTHA PASE CERCA O AL NORTE DE
BARBADOS ESTA TARDE Y SE MUEVA A TRAVES DEL CENTRO DE LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES ESTA NOCHE...Y HACIA EL NORESTE DEL CARIBE EL SABADO.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS
POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. NO SE PRONOSTICA CAMBIO
SIGNIFICATIVO EN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.

LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 45
MILLAS...75 KILOMETROS DE SU CENTRO.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MILIBARES...29.77
PULGADAS.


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
VIENTOS...SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ALCANCEN
PRIMERO EL AREA BAJO AVISO PARA EL MEDIODIA DE HOY...DIFICULTANDO
LOS PREPARATIVOS EN EL EXTERIOR. CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA EN PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS
VIRGENES AMERICANAS EL SABADO.

LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE BERTHA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3
PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 6 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE
AREAS DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...PUERTO RICO...Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES
AMERICANAS HASTA EL SABADO EN LA NOCHE.


PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA...8:00 AM AST.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...11:00 AM AST.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA



















000
WTCA43 TJSJ 010858 CCA
TCPSP3

BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL BERTA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO   2
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL032014
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST VIERNES 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

...BERTHA CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE HACIA LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y EL
NORESTE DEL MAR CARIBE...
...AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EMITIDOS PARA PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS
ADYACENTES...


RESUMEN DE LAS 5:00 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMACION
----------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...13.0 NORTE 57.0 OESTE
CERCA DE 170 MILLAS...270 KILOMETROS AL ESTE DE BARBADOS
CERCA DE 295 MILLAS...470 KILOMETROS AL ESTE SURESTE DE MARTINICA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE NOROESTE O 290 GRADOS A 20 MPH...31
KILOMETROS POR HORA
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1008 MILIBARES...29.77 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO EMITIDO PARA PUERTO
RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS.

EL GOBIERNO DE ANTIGUA Y BARBUDA HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS.

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PUDIERA REQUERIRSE PARA MARTINICA MAS
TARDE HOY.

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BARBADOS
* SANTA LUCIA
* DOMINICA
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS
* ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* SAN VINCENT Y LAS GRANADINAS

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES
DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO...EN ESTE CASO...DENTRO
DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS.

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN
CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO
VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.

LOS INTERESES EN EL NORESTE DEL MAR CARIBE Y LA ESPANOLA DEBEN ESTAR
ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA EN LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS SOBRE
TIERRA...FAVOR ESTAR ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA
LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA. PARA INFORMACION
ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA FUERA DE ESTADOS UNIDOS...FAVOR ESTAR
ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DEL SERVICIO
NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.


DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 5:00 AM AST...0900 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
BERTHA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.0 NORTE...LONGITUD
57.0 OESTE. BERTHA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20
MPH...31 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO
GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA
PRONOSTICADA...SE ESPERA QUE BERTHA PASE CERCA O AL NORTE DE
BARBADOS ESTA TARDE Y SE MUEVA A TRAVES DEL CENTRO DE LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES ESTA NOCHE...Y HACIA EL NORESTE DEL CARIBE EL SABADO.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS
POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. NO SE PRONOSTICA CAMBIO
SIGNIFICATIVO EN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.

LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 45
MILLAS...75 KILOMETROS DE SU CENTRO.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MILIBARES...29.77
PULGADAS.


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
VIENTOS...SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ALCANCEN
PRIMERO EL AREA BAJO AVISO PARA EL MEDIODIA DE HOY...DIFICULTANDO
LOS PREPARATIVOS EN EL EXTERIOR. CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA EN PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS
VIRGENES AMERICANAS EL SABADO.

LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE BERTHA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3
PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 6 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE
AREAS DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...PUERTO RICO...Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES
AMERICANAS HASTA EL SABADO EN LA NOCHE.


PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA...8:00 AM AST.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...11:00 AM AST.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA


















000
WTCA43 TJSJ 010855
TCPSP3

BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL BERTA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO   2
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL032014
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST VIERNES 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

...BERTHA CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE HACIA LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y EL
NORESTE DEL MAR CARIBE...
...AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EMITIDOS PARA PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS
ADYACENTES...


RESUMEN DE LAS 5:00 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMACION
----------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...13.0 NORTE 57.0 OESTE
CERCA DE 170 MILLAS...270 KILOMETROS AL ESTE DE BARBADOS
CERCA DE 295 MILLAS...470 KILOMETROS AL ESTE SURESTE DE MARTINICA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE NOROESTE O 290 GRADOS A 20 MPH...31
KILOMETROS POR HORA
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1008 MILIBARES...29.77 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO EMITIDO PARA PUERTO
RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS.

EL GOBIERNO DE ANTIGUA Y BARBUDA HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS.

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PUDIERA REQUERIRSE PARA MARTINICA MAS
TARDE HOY.

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BARBADOS
* SANTA LUCIA
* DOMINICA
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS
* ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* SAN VINCENT Y LAS GRANADINAS

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES
DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO...EN ESTE CASO...DENTRO
DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS.

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN
CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO
VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.

LOS INTERESES EN EL NORESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL
PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA EN LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS SOBRE
TIERRA...FAVOR ESTAR ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA
LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA. PARA INFORMACION
ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA FUERA DE ESTADOS UNIDOS...FAVOR ESTAR
ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DEL SERVICIO
NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.


DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 5:00 AM AST...0900 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
BERTHA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.0 NORTE...LONGITUD
57.0 OESTE. BERTHA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20
MPH...31 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO
GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA
PRONOSTICADA...SE ESPERA QUE BERTHA PASE CERCA O AL NORTE DE
BARBADOS ESTA TARDE Y SE MUEVA A TRAVES DEL CENTRO DE LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES ESTA NOCHE...Y HACIA EL NORESTE DEL CARIBE EL SABADO.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS
POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. NO SE PRONOSTICA CAMBIO
SIGNIFICATIVO EN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.

LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 45
MILLAS...75 KILOMETROS DE SU CENTRO.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MILIBARES...29.77
PULGADAS.


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
VIENTOS...SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ALCANCEN
PRIMERO EL AREA BAJO AVISO PARA EL MEDIODIA DE HOY...DIFICULTANDO
LOS PREPARATIVOS EN EL EXTERIOR. CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA EN PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS
VIRGENES AMERICANAS EL SABADO.

LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE BERTHA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3
PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 6 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE
AREAS DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...PUERTO RICO...Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES
AMERICANAS HASTA EL SABADO EN LA NOCHE.


PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA...8:00 AM AST.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...11:00 AM AST.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA

















000
WTCA43 TJSJ 010855
TCPSP3

BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL BERTA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO   2
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL032014
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST VIERNES 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

...BERTHA CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE HACIA LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y EL
NORESTE DEL MAR CARIBE...
...AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EMITIDOS PARA PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS
ADYACENTES...


RESUMEN DE LAS 5:00 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMACION
----------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...13.0 NORTE 57.0 OESTE
CERCA DE 170 MILLAS...270 KILOMETROS AL ESTE DE BARBADOS
CERCA DE 295 MILLAS...470 KILOMETROS AL ESTE SURESTE DE MARTINICA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE NOROESTE O 290 GRADOS A 20 MPH...31
KILOMETROS POR HORA
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1008 MILIBARES...29.77 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO EMITIDO PARA PUERTO
RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS.

EL GOBIERNO DE ANTIGUA Y BARBUDA HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS.

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PUDIERA REQUERIRSE PARA MARTINICA MAS
TARDE HOY.

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BARBADOS
* SANTA LUCIA
* DOMINICA
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS
* ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* SAN VINCENT Y LAS GRANADINAS

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES
DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO...EN ESTE CASO...DENTRO
DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS.

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN
CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO
VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.

LOS INTERESES EN EL NORESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL
PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA EN LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS SOBRE
TIERRA...FAVOR ESTAR ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA
LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA. PARA INFORMACION
ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA FUERA DE ESTADOS UNIDOS...FAVOR ESTAR
ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DEL SERVICIO
NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.


DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 5:00 AM AST...0900 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
BERTHA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.0 NORTE...LONGITUD
57.0 OESTE. BERTHA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20
MPH...31 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO
GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA
PRONOSTICADA...SE ESPERA QUE BERTHA PASE CERCA O AL NORTE DE
BARBADOS ESTA TARDE Y SE MUEVA A TRAVES DEL CENTRO DE LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES ESTA NOCHE...Y HACIA EL NORESTE DEL CARIBE EL SABADO.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS
POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. NO SE PRONOSTICA CAMBIO
SIGNIFICATIVO EN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.

LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 45
MILLAS...75 KILOMETROS DE SU CENTRO.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MILIBARES...29.77
PULGADAS.


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
VIENTOS...SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ALCANCEN
PRIMERO EL AREA BAJO AVISO PARA EL MEDIODIA DE HOY...DIFICULTANDO
LOS PREPARATIVOS EN EL EXTERIOR. CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA EN PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS
VIRGENES AMERICANAS EL SABADO.

LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE BERTHA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3
PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 6 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE
AREAS DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...PUERTO RICO...Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES
AMERICANAS HASTA EL SABADO EN LA NOCHE.


PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA...8:00 AM AST.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...11:00 AM AST.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA

















000
WTCA43 TJSJ 010855
TCPSP3

BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL BERTA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO   2
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL032014
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST VIERNES 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

...BERTHA CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE HACIA LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y EL
NORESTE DEL MAR CARIBE...
...AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EMITIDOS PARA PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS
ADYACENTES...


RESUMEN DE LAS 5:00 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMACION
----------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...13.0 NORTE 57.0 OESTE
CERCA DE 170 MILLAS...270 KILOMETROS AL ESTE DE BARBADOS
CERCA DE 295 MILLAS...470 KILOMETROS AL ESTE SURESTE DE MARTINICA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE NOROESTE O 290 GRADOS A 20 MPH...31
KILOMETROS POR HORA
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1008 MILIBARES...29.77 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO EMITIDO PARA PUERTO
RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS.

EL GOBIERNO DE ANTIGUA Y BARBUDA HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS.

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PUDIERA REQUERIRSE PARA MARTINICA MAS
TARDE HOY.

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BARBADOS
* SANTA LUCIA
* DOMINICA
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS
* ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* SAN VINCENT Y LAS GRANADINAS

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES
DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO...EN ESTE CASO...DENTRO
DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS.

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN
CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO
VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.

LOS INTERESES EN EL NORESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL
PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA EN LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS SOBRE
TIERRA...FAVOR ESTAR ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA
LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA. PARA INFORMACION
ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA FUERA DE ESTADOS UNIDOS...FAVOR ESTAR
ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DEL SERVICIO
NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.


DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 5:00 AM AST...0900 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
BERTHA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.0 NORTE...LONGITUD
57.0 OESTE. BERTHA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20
MPH...31 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO
GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA
PRONOSTICADA...SE ESPERA QUE BERTHA PASE CERCA O AL NORTE DE
BARBADOS ESTA TARDE Y SE MUEVA A TRAVES DEL CENTRO DE LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES ESTA NOCHE...Y HACIA EL NORESTE DEL CARIBE EL SABADO.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS
POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. NO SE PRONOSTICA CAMBIO
SIGNIFICATIVO EN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.

LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 45
MILLAS...75 KILOMETROS DE SU CENTRO.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MILIBARES...29.77
PULGADAS.


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
VIENTOS...SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ALCANCEN
PRIMERO EL AREA BAJO AVISO PARA EL MEDIODIA DE HOY...DIFICULTANDO
LOS PREPARATIVOS EN EL EXTERIOR. CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA EN PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS
VIRGENES AMERICANAS EL SABADO.

LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE BERTHA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3
PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 6 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE
AREAS DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...PUERTO RICO...Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES
AMERICANAS HASTA EL SABADO EN LA NOCHE.


PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA...8:00 AM AST.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...11:00 AM AST.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA

















000
WTCA43 TJSJ 010855
TCPSP3

BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL BERTA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO   2
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL032014
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST VIERNES 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

...BERTHA CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE HACIA LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y EL
NORESTE DEL MAR CARIBE...
...AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EMITIDOS PARA PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS
ADYACENTES...


RESUMEN DE LAS 5:00 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMACION
----------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...13.0 NORTE 57.0 OESTE
CERCA DE 170 MILLAS...270 KILOMETROS AL ESTE DE BARBADOS
CERCA DE 295 MILLAS...470 KILOMETROS AL ESTE SURESTE DE MARTINICA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE NOROESTE O 290 GRADOS A 20 MPH...31
KILOMETROS POR HORA
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1008 MILIBARES...29.77 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO EMITIDO PARA PUERTO
RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS.

EL GOBIERNO DE ANTIGUA Y BARBUDA HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS.

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PUDIERA REQUERIRSE PARA MARTINICA MAS
TARDE HOY.

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BARBADOS
* SANTA LUCIA
* DOMINICA
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS
* ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* SAN VINCENT Y LAS GRANADINAS

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES
DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO...EN ESTE CASO...DENTRO
DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS.

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN
CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO
VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.

LOS INTERESES EN EL NORESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL
PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA EN LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS SOBRE
TIERRA...FAVOR ESTAR ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA
LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA. PARA INFORMACION
ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA FUERA DE ESTADOS UNIDOS...FAVOR ESTAR
ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DEL SERVICIO
NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.


DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 5:00 AM AST...0900 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
BERTHA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.0 NORTE...LONGITUD
57.0 OESTE. BERTHA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20
MPH...31 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO
GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA
PRONOSTICADA...SE ESPERA QUE BERTHA PASE CERCA O AL NORTE DE
BARBADOS ESTA TARDE Y SE MUEVA A TRAVES DEL CENTRO DE LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES ESTA NOCHE...Y HACIA EL NORESTE DEL CARIBE EL SABADO.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS
POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. NO SE PRONOSTICA CAMBIO
SIGNIFICATIVO EN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.

LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 45
MILLAS...75 KILOMETROS DE SU CENTRO.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MILIBARES...29.77
PULGADAS.


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
VIENTOS...SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ALCANCEN
PRIMERO EL AREA BAJO AVISO PARA EL MEDIODIA DE HOY...DIFICULTANDO
LOS PREPARATIVOS EN EL EXTERIOR. CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA EN PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS
VIRGENES AMERICANAS EL SABADO.

LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE BERTHA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3
PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 6 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE
AREAS DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...PUERTO RICO...Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES
AMERICANAS HASTA EL SABADO EN LA NOCHE.


PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA...8:00 AM AST.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...11:00 AM AST.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA

















000
WTPZ24 KNHC 010847
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014
0900 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 124.6W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 124.6W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 124.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.1N 125.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.8N 127.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.3N 129.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.8N 131.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.5N 134.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 16.8N 137.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 17.0N 140.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 124.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





000
WTPZ34 KNHC 010847
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 01 2014

...ISELLE STRENGTHENING QUICKLY WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 124.6W
ABOUT 1160 MI...1870 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.6 WEST. ISELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED... AND ISELLE SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY.

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




000
WTPZ24 KNHC 010847
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014
0900 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 124.6W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 124.6W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 124.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.1N 125.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.8N 127.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.3N 129.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.8N 131.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.5N 134.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 16.8N 137.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 17.0N 140.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 124.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





000
WTPZ34 KNHC 010847
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 01 2014

...ISELLE STRENGTHENING QUICKLY WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 124.6W
ABOUT 1160 MI...1870 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.6 WEST. ISELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED... AND ISELLE SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY.

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




000
WTPZ24 KNHC 010847
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014
0900 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 124.6W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 124.6W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 124.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.1N 125.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.8N 127.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.3N 129.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.8N 131.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.5N 134.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 16.8N 137.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 17.0N 140.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 124.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




000
WTPZ34 KNHC 010847
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 01 2014

...ISELLE STRENGTHENING QUICKLY WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 124.6W
ABOUT 1160 MI...1870 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.6 WEST. ISELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED... AND ISELLE SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY.

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



000
WTNT33 KNHC 010847
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
500 AM AST FRI AUG 01 2014

...BERTHA CONTINUES TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 57.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO
RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR MARTINIQUE LATER
TODAY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST.
BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...31
KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS
NEAR OR NORTH OF BARBADOS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT...AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
WARNING AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTPZ24 KNHC 010847
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014
0900 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 124.6W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 124.6W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 124.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.1N 125.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.8N 127.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.3N 129.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.8N 131.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.5N 134.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 16.8N 137.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 17.0N 140.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 124.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




000
WTPZ34 KNHC 010847
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 01 2014

...ISELLE STRENGTHENING QUICKLY WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 124.6W
ABOUT 1160 MI...1870 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.6 WEST. ISELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED... AND ISELLE SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY.

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



000
WTNT33 KNHC 010847
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
500 AM AST FRI AUG 01 2014

...BERTHA CONTINUES TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 57.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO
RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR MARTINIQUE LATER
TODAY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST.
BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...31
KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS
NEAR OR NORTH OF BARBADOS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT...AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
WARNING AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTPZ24 KNHC 010847
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014
0900 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 124.6W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 124.6W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 124.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.1N 125.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.8N 127.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.3N 129.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.8N 131.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.5N 134.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 16.8N 137.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 17.0N 140.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 124.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




000
WTPZ34 KNHC 010847
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 01 2014

...ISELLE STRENGTHENING QUICKLY WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 124.6W
ABOUT 1160 MI...1870 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.6 WEST. ISELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED... AND ISELLE SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY.

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



000
WTNT33 KNHC 010847
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
500 AM AST FRI AUG 01 2014

...BERTHA CONTINUES TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 57.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO
RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR MARTINIQUE LATER
TODAY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST.
BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...31
KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS
NEAR OR NORTH OF BARBADOS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT...AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
WARNING AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTNT33 KNHC 010847
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
500 AM AST FRI AUG 01 2014

...BERTHA CONTINUES TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 57.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO
RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR MARTINIQUE LATER
TODAY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST.
BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...31
KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS
NEAR OR NORTH OF BARBADOS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT...AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
WARNING AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTNT23 KNHC 010846
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
0900 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO
RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR MARTINIQUE LATER
TODAY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  57.0W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  57.0W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N  56.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.0N  59.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.5N  63.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.2N  66.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.5N  68.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 24.5N  73.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 29.0N  74.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 35.0N  67.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N  57.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTNT23 KNHC 010846
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
0900 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO
RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR MARTINIQUE LATER
TODAY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  57.0W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  57.0W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N  56.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.0N  59.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.5N  63.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.2N  66.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.5N  68.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 24.5N  73.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 29.0N  74.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 35.0N  67.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N  57.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





000
ACPN50 PHFO 010553
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST THU JUL 31 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. REMNANT LOW GENEVIEVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 520 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU...HAWAII. THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT MAY PERMIT THIS
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1325 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.  IT IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.

$$

KINEL




000
AXNT20 KNHC 010553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 12.6N 56.3W AT 01/0600
UTC OR ABOUT 185 NM E OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 280 NM ESE OF SAINT
LUCIA MOVING W-NW AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO
50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
CENTER IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N22W TO 20N20W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED 700 MB TROUGH
ALONG 21W WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY CENTERED
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 16W-19W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N34W TO 17N35W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. 700 MB TROUGHING EXTENDS N-NW FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE WAVE WITH AN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED TO THE
EAST OF A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N34N. THE BROAD
AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY IS NOTED FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN
30W-38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN
33W-36W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N60W TO 19N62W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE W OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA AND
LARGELY SURROUNDED BY THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE NE OF THE
WAVE AXIS N OF 14N. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
10N22W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N34W TO 04N39W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N39W TO
04N46W TO 09N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
06N-11N BETWEEN 20W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING
OVER THE SE CONUS. A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN
GEORGIA NEAR 32N83W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED S-SE FROM
THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THEN SW TO THE GULF COAST NEAR FORT MYERS. THE FRONT CONTINUES
WESTWARD ALONG 25N TO 90W. MOST EARLIER CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT INLAND ACROSS THE PENINSULA AS DIMINISHED...HOWEVER A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE
FRONT AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT E OF 83W. ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE OF ENERGY IS NOTED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION THAT
IS SUPPORTIVE OF A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS INLAND SE TEXAS
NEAR 30N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS N OF 28N W OF 93W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
VERY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED IN
THE VICINITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION NEAR 29N88W.
THIS RIDGING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF PROVIDING E-SE
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE NOTED OVER MUCH
OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING FOCUSED ON AN ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N85W...AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 12N77W...AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PROVIDING NW FLOW ALOFT FOR THE NE CARIBBEAN
CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 24N64W. ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OCCURRING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SOUTHERN CUBA COAST. THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING S OF
12N BETWEEN 80W-84W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. FARTHER EAST...UPPER LEVEL NW TO W FLOW
IS PROVIDING MOSTLY STABLE CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN EVEN AS A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED WEST ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...
HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. FINALLY...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PERSIST WITH THE STRONGEST AREA OF
WINDS EXPECTED S OF 14N BETWEEN 68W-77W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH THE
ISLAND REMAINING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 24N64W. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FORECAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS REMAINING
LARGELY N OF 30N THAT SUPPORTS A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA NEAR 32N83W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
EASTWARD TO 32N76W THEN NE TO BEYOND 37N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 25N W OF 76W IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.
FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N64W
GENERATING AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN 63W-73W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N47W THAT IS SUPPORTING A 1016
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N44W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW CENTER SW TO 26N46W THEN W-NW TO 28N58W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN 41W-46W...AND FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN
49W-59W. THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS N OF 20N E OF
40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
ACPN50 PHFO 010553
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST THU JUL 31 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. REMNANT LOW GENEVIEVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 520 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU...HAWAII. THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT MAY PERMIT THIS
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1325 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.  IT IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.

$$

KINEL




000
AXNT20 KNHC 010553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 12.6N 56.3W AT 01/0600
UTC OR ABOUT 185 NM E OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 280 NM ESE OF SAINT
LUCIA MOVING W-NW AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO
50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
CENTER IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N22W TO 20N20W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED 700 MB TROUGH
ALONG 21W WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY CENTERED
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 16W-19W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N34W TO 17N35W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. 700 MB TROUGHING EXTENDS N-NW FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE WAVE WITH AN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED TO THE
EAST OF A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N34N. THE BROAD
AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY IS NOTED FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN
30W-38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN
33W-36W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N60W TO 19N62W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE W OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA AND
LARGELY SURROUNDED BY THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE NE OF THE
WAVE AXIS N OF 14N. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
10N22W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N34W TO 04N39W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N39W TO
04N46W TO 09N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
06N-11N BETWEEN 20W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING
OVER THE SE CONUS. A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN
GEORGIA NEAR 32N83W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED S-SE FROM
THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THEN SW TO THE GULF COAST NEAR FORT MYERS. THE FRONT CONTINUES
WESTWARD ALONG 25N TO 90W. MOST EARLIER CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT INLAND ACROSS THE PENINSULA AS DIMINISHED...HOWEVER A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE
FRONT AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT E OF 83W. ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE OF ENERGY IS NOTED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION THAT
IS SUPPORTIVE OF A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS INLAND SE TEXAS
NEAR 30N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS N OF 28N W OF 93W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
VERY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED IN
THE VICINITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION NEAR 29N88W.
THIS RIDGING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF PROVIDING E-SE
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE NOTED OVER MUCH
OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING FOCUSED ON AN ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N85W...AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 12N77W...AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PROVIDING NW FLOW ALOFT FOR THE NE CARIBBEAN
CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 24N64W. ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OCCURRING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SOUTHERN CUBA COAST. THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING S OF
12N BETWEEN 80W-84W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. FARTHER EAST...UPPER LEVEL NW TO W FLOW
IS PROVIDING MOSTLY STABLE CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN EVEN AS A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED WEST ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...
HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. FINALLY...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PERSIST WITH THE STRONGEST AREA OF
WINDS EXPECTED S OF 14N BETWEEN 68W-77W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH THE
ISLAND REMAINING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 24N64W. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FORECAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS REMAINING
LARGELY N OF 30N THAT SUPPORTS A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA NEAR 32N83W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
EASTWARD TO 32N76W THEN NE TO BEYOND 37N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 25N W OF 76W IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.
FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N64W
GENERATING AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN 63W-73W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N47W THAT IS SUPPORTING A 1016
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N44W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW CENTER SW TO 26N46W THEN W-NW TO 28N58W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN 41W-46W...AND FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN
49W-59W. THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS N OF 20N E OF
40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 010553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 12.6N 56.3W AT 01/0600
UTC OR ABOUT 185 NM E OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 280 NM ESE OF SAINT
LUCIA MOVING W-NW AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO
50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
CENTER IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N22W TO 20N20W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED 700 MB TROUGH
ALONG 21W WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY CENTERED
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 16W-19W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N34W TO 17N35W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. 700 MB TROUGHING EXTENDS N-NW FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE WAVE WITH AN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED TO THE
EAST OF A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N34N. THE BROAD
AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY IS NOTED FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN
30W-38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN
33W-36W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N60W TO 19N62W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE W OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA AND
LARGELY SURROUNDED BY THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE NE OF THE
WAVE AXIS N OF 14N. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
10N22W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N34W TO 04N39W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N39W TO
04N46W TO 09N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
06N-11N BETWEEN 20W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING
OVER THE SE CONUS. A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN
GEORGIA NEAR 32N83W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED S-SE FROM
THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THEN SW TO THE GULF COAST NEAR FORT MYERS. THE FRONT CONTINUES
WESTWARD ALONG 25N TO 90W. MOST EARLIER CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT INLAND ACROSS THE PENINSULA AS DIMINISHED...HOWEVER A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE
FRONT AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT E OF 83W. ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE OF ENERGY IS NOTED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION THAT
IS SUPPORTIVE OF A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS INLAND SE TEXAS
NEAR 30N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS N OF 28N W OF 93W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
VERY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED IN
THE VICINITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION NEAR 29N88W.
THIS RIDGING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF PROVIDING E-SE
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE NOTED OVER MUCH
OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING FOCUSED ON AN ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N85W...AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 12N77W...AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PROVIDING NW FLOW ALOFT FOR THE NE CARIBBEAN
CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 24N64W. ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OCCURRING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SOUTHERN CUBA COAST. THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING S OF
12N BETWEEN 80W-84W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. FARTHER EAST...UPPER LEVEL NW TO W FLOW
IS PROVIDING MOSTLY STABLE CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN EVEN AS A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED WEST ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...
HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. FINALLY...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PERSIST WITH THE STRONGEST AREA OF
WINDS EXPECTED S OF 14N BETWEEN 68W-77W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH THE
ISLAND REMAINING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 24N64W. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FORECAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS REMAINING
LARGELY N OF 30N THAT SUPPORTS A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA NEAR 32N83W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
EASTWARD TO 32N76W THEN NE TO BEYOND 37N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 25N W OF 76W IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.
FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N64W
GENERATING AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN 63W-73W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N47W THAT IS SUPPORTING A 1016
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N44W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW CENTER SW TO 26N46W THEN W-NW TO 28N58W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN 41W-46W...AND FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN
49W-59W. THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS N OF 20N E OF
40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
ACPN50 PHFO 010553
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST THU JUL 31 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. REMNANT LOW GENEVIEVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 520 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU...HAWAII. THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT MAY PERMIT THIS
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1325 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.  IT IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.

$$

KINEL





000
WTCA43 TJSJ 010548
TCPSP3

BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL BERTA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO   1A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL032014
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM AST VIERNES 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

...TORMENTA TROPICAL BERTHA SE DIRIGE HACIA LAS ANTILLAS MENORES...


RESUMEN DE LAS 2:00 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMACION
----------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...12.6 NORTE 56.3 OESTE
CERCA DE 215 MILLAS...345 KILOMETROS AL ESTE DE BARBADOS
CERCA DE 320 MILLAS...520 KILOMETROS AL ESTE SURESTE DE SANTA LUCIA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE NOROESTE O 290 GRADOS A 18 MPH...30
KILOMETROS POR HORA
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1008 MILIBARES...29.77 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...

EL GOBIERNO DE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS HA EMITIDO UNA
VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS.

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PUDIERA REQUERIRSE PARA MARTINICA MAS
TARDE HOY.

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BARBADOS
* SANTA  LUCIA
* DOMINICA

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS
* ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS
* SAN VINCENT Y LAS GRANADINAS

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES
DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO...EN ESTE CASO...DENTRO
DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS.

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN
CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO
VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.

LOS INTERESES EN EL NORESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL
PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA EN LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS SOBRE
TIERRA...FAVOR ESTAR ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA
LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA. PARA INFORMACION
ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA FUERA DE ESTADOS UNIDOS...FAVOR ESTAR
ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DEL SERVICIO
NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.


DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 2:00 AM AST...0600 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
BERTHA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12.6 NORTE...LONGITUD
56.3 OESTE. BERTHA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18
MPH...30 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO
GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA
PRONOSTICADA...SE ESPERA QUE BERTHA PASE CERCA DE BARBADOS ESTA
TARDE Y SE MUEVA A TRAVES DEL CENTRO DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES EL
VIERNES AL ANOCHECER.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS
POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN
FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.

LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 45
MILLAS...75 KILOMETROS DE SU CENTRO.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MILIBARES...29.77
PULGADAS.


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
VIENTOS...SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ALCANCEN
PRIMERO EL AREA BAJO AVISO PARA EL MEDIODIA DE HOY...DIFICULTANDO
LOS PREPARATIVOS EN EL EXTERIOR. CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA EN PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS
VIRGENES AMERICANAS EL SABADO.

LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE BERTHA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3
PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 5 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE
AREAS DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...PUERTO RICO...Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES
AMERICANAS HASTA EL SABADO EN LA NOCHE.


PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...5:00 AM AST.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA















000
WTCA43 TJSJ 010548
TCPSP3

BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL BERTA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO   1A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL032014
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM AST VIERNES 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

...TORMENTA TROPICAL BERTHA SE DIRIGE HACIA LAS ANTILLAS MENORES...


RESUMEN DE LAS 2:00 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMACION
----------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...12.6 NORTE 56.3 OESTE
CERCA DE 215 MILLAS...345 KILOMETROS AL ESTE DE BARBADOS
CERCA DE 320 MILLAS...520 KILOMETROS AL ESTE SURESTE DE SANTA LUCIA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE NOROESTE O 290 GRADOS A 18 MPH...30
KILOMETROS POR HORA
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1008 MILIBARES...29.77 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...

EL GOBIERNO DE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS HA EMITIDO UNA
VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS.

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PUDIERA REQUERIRSE PARA MARTINICA MAS
TARDE HOY.

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BARBADOS
* SANTA  LUCIA
* DOMINICA

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS
* ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS
* SAN VINCENT Y LAS GRANADINAS

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES
DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO...EN ESTE CASO...DENTRO
DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS.

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN
CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO
VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.

LOS INTERESES EN EL NORESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL
PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA EN LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS SOBRE
TIERRA...FAVOR ESTAR ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA
LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA. PARA INFORMACION
ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA FUERA DE ESTADOS UNIDOS...FAVOR ESTAR
ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DEL SERVICIO
NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.


DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 2:00 AM AST...0600 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
BERTHA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12.6 NORTE...LONGITUD
56.3 OESTE. BERTHA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18
MPH...30 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO
GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA
PRONOSTICADA...SE ESPERA QUE BERTHA PASE CERCA DE BARBADOS ESTA
TARDE Y SE MUEVA A TRAVES DEL CENTRO DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES EL
VIERNES AL ANOCHECER.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS
POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN
FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.

LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 45
MILLAS...75 KILOMETROS DE SU CENTRO.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MILIBARES...29.77
PULGADAS.


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
VIENTOS...SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ALCANCEN
PRIMERO EL AREA BAJO AVISO PARA EL MEDIODIA DE HOY...DIFICULTANDO
LOS PREPARATIVOS EN EL EXTERIOR. CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA EN PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS
VIRGENES AMERICANAS EL SABADO.

LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE BERTHA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3
PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 5 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE
AREAS DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...PUERTO RICO...Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES
AMERICANAS HASTA EL SABADO EN LA NOCHE.


PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...5:00 AM AST.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA














000
WTNT33 KNHC 010542
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
200 AM AST FRI AUG 01 2014

...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA HEADING TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 56.3W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR MARTINIQUE LATER
TODAY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.3 WEST. BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BARBADOS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES FRIDAY
EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
WARNING AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010528
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Iselle, located more than a thousand miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure located about 1325 miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Upper-level winds are not particularly
favorable, and any development of this system should be slow to
occur while it moves westward at around 10 mph during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A large area of showers and thunderstorms continues in association
with a tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico. Some gradual development of this system is
expected during the next few days while it moves westward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Iselle are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4. Forecast/Advisories on Iselle are
issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010528
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Iselle, located more than a thousand miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure located about 1325 miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Upper-level winds are not particularly
favorable, and any development of this system should be slow to
occur while it moves westward at around 10 mph during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A large area of showers and thunderstorms continues in association
with a tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico. Some gradual development of this system is
expected during the next few days while it moves westward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Iselle are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4. Forecast/Advisories on Iselle are
issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010528
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Iselle, located more than a thousand miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure located about 1325 miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Upper-level winds are not particularly
favorable, and any development of this system should be slow to
occur while it moves westward at around 10 mph during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A large area of showers and thunderstorms continues in association
with a tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico. Some gradual development of this system is
expected during the next few days while it moves westward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Iselle are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4. Forecast/Advisories on Iselle are
issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010528
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Iselle, located more than a thousand miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure located about 1325 miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Upper-level winds are not particularly
favorable, and any development of this system should be slow to
occur while it moves westward at around 10 mph during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A large area of showers and thunderstorms continues in association
with a tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico. Some gradual development of this system is
expected during the next few days while it moves westward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Iselle are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4. Forecast/Advisories on Iselle are
issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 010513
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT VIERNES 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE LA
RECIEN FORMADA TORMENTA TROPICAL BERTHA...LOCALIZADA JUSTO AL ESTE
DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES.

&&
ADVERTENCIAS PUBLICAS SOBRE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BERTHA SON EMITIDAS
BAJO EL ENCABEZAMIENTO DE WMO WTNT33 KNHC Y BAJO EL ENCABEZAMIENTO
DE AWIPS MIATCPAT3. PRONOSTICO/ADVERTENCIAS SON EMITIDOS BAJO EL
ENCABEZAMIENTO DE WMO WTNT23 KNHC Y BAJO EL ENCABEZAMIENTO DE AWIPS
MIATCMAT3.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 010513
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT VIERNES 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE LA
RECIEN FORMADA TORMENTA TROPICAL BERTHA...LOCALIZADA JUSTO AL ESTE
DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES.

&&
ADVERTENCIAS PUBLICAS SOBRE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BERTHA SON EMITIDAS
BAJO EL ENCABEZAMIENTO DE WMO WTNT33 KNHC Y BAJO EL ENCABEZAMIENTO
DE AWIPS MIATCPAT3. PRONOSTICO/ADVERTENCIAS SON EMITIDOS BAJO EL
ENCABEZAMIENTO DE WMO WTNT23 KNHC Y BAJO EL ENCABEZAMIENTO DE AWIPS
MIATCMAT3.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA





000
ABNT20 KNHC 010509
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Bertha located just east of the Lesser Antilles.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Bertha are issued under WMO
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.


$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABNT20 KNHC 010509
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Bertha located just east of the Lesser Antilles.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Bertha are issued under WMO
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.


$$
Forecaster Avila



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 010323
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
200 PM CHST FRI AUG 1 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG CONTINUES MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.4N 138.9E

ABOUT 345 MILES NORTH OF YAP
ABOUT 395 MILES WEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 420 MILES WEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 450 MILES WEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 460 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW...240 DEGREES AT 7 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
138.9 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 7 MPH. HALONG IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. HALONG
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND MAY BECOME A TYPHOON
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

STANKO





000
WTPQ31 PGUM 010323
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
200 PM CHST FRI AUG 1 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG CONTINUES MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.4N 138.9E

ABOUT 345 MILES NORTH OF YAP
ABOUT 395 MILES WEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 420 MILES WEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 450 MILES WEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 460 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW...240 DEGREES AT 7 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
138.9 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 7 MPH. HALONG IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. HALONG
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND MAY BECOME A TYPHOON
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

STANKO






000
WTCA43 TJSJ 010319
TCPSP3

BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL BERTA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO   1
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL032014
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
1100 PM AST JUEVES 31 DE JULIO DE 2014

...SE FORMA TORMENTA TROPICAL BERTHA AL ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES
SUR...
...SE HAN EMITIDO AVISOS Y VIGILANCIAS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...


RESUMEN DE LAS 11:00 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMACION
----------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...12.3 NORTE 55.5 OESTE
CERCA DE 275 MILLAS...445 KILOMETROS AL ESTE SURESTE DE BARBADOS
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE NOROESTE O 290 GRADOS A 20 MPH...31
KILOMETROS POR HORA
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1008 MILIBARES...29.77 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...

EL SERVICIO METEOROLOGICO DE BARBADOS HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BARBADOS Y DOMINICA.

EL GOBIERNO DE SANTA LUCIA HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
PARA SANTA LUCIA.

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA PUERTO
RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS.

EL SERVICIO METEOROLOGICO DE BARBADOS HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA SAN VINCENT Y LAS GRANADINAS.

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PUDIERA REQUERIRSE PARA MARTINICA EL
VIERNES EN LA MANANA.

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BARBADOS
* SANTA  LUCIA
* DOMINICA

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS
* SAN VINCENT Y LAS GRANADINAS

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES
DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO...EN ESTE CASO...DENTRO
DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS.

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN
CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO
VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.

LOS INTERESES EN EL NORESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL
PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA EN LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS SOBRE
TIERRA...FAVOR ESTAR ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA
LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA. PARA INFORMACION
ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA FUERA DE ESTADOS UNIDOS...FAVOR ESTAR
ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DEL SERVICIO
NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.


DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 11:00 PM AST...0300 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
BERTHA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12.3 NORTE...LONGITUD
55.5 OESTE. BERTHA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20
MPH...31 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO
GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA
PRONOSTICADA...SE ESPERA QUE BERTHA PASE CERCA DE BARBADOS EL
VIERNES EN LA TARDE Y SE MUEVA A TRAVES DEL CENTRO DE LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES EL VIERNES AL ANOCHECER.

REPORTES DEL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA
AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45
MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE
PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
HORAS.

LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 45
MILLAS...75 KILOMETROS DE SU CENTRO.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MILIBARES...29.77
PULGADAS.


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
VIENTOS...SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ALCANZANDO
PRIMERO EL AREA BAJO AVISO PARA EL MEDIODIA DEL
VIERNES...DIFICULTANDO LOS PREPARATIVOS EN EL EXTERIOR. CONDICIONES
DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA EN
PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS EL SABADO.

LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE BERTHA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3
PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 5 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE
AREAS DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...PUERTO RICO...Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES
AMERICANAS HASTA EL SABADO EN LA NOCHE.


PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA...2:00 AM AST.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...5:00 AM AST.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART











000
WTCA43 TJSJ 010319
TCPSP3

BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL BERTA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO   1
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL032014
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
1100 PM AST JUEVES 31 DE JULIO DE 2014

...SE FORMA TORMENTA TROPICAL BERTHA AL ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES
SUR...
...SE HAN EMITIDO AVISOS Y VIGILANCIAS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...


RESUMEN DE LAS 11:00 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMACION
----------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...12.3 NORTE 55.5 OESTE
CERCA DE 275 MILLAS...445 KILOMETROS AL ESTE SURESTE DE BARBADOS
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE NOROESTE O 290 GRADOS A 20 MPH...31
KILOMETROS POR HORA
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1008 MILIBARES...29.77 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...

EL SERVICIO METEOROLOGICO DE BARBADOS HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BARBADOS Y DOMINICA.

EL GOBIERNO DE SANTA LUCIA HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
PARA SANTA LUCIA.

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA PUERTO
RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS.

EL SERVICIO METEOROLOGICO DE BARBADOS HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA SAN VINCENT Y LAS GRANADINAS.

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PUDIERA REQUERIRSE PARA MARTINICA EL
VIERNES EN LA MANANA.

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BARBADOS
* SANTA  LUCIA
* DOMINICA

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS
* SAN VINCENT Y LAS GRANADINAS

UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES
DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO...EN ESTE CASO...DENTRO
DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS.

UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN
CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO
VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.

LOS INTERESES EN EL NORESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL
PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA EN LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS SOBRE
TIERRA...FAVOR ESTAR ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA
LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA. PARA INFORMACION
ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA FUERA DE ESTADOS UNIDOS...FAVOR ESTAR
ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DEL SERVICIO
NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.


DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 11:00 PM AST...0300 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
BERTHA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12.3 NORTE...LONGITUD
55.5 OESTE. BERTHA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20
MPH...31 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO
GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA
PRONOSTICADA...SE ESPERA QUE BERTHA PASE CERCA DE BARBADOS EL
VIERNES EN LA TARDE Y SE MUEVA A TRAVES DEL CENTRO DE LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES EL VIERNES AL ANOCHECER.

REPORTES DEL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA
AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45
MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE
PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
HORAS.

LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 45
MILLAS...75 KILOMETROS DE SU CENTRO.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MILIBARES...29.77
PULGADAS.


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
VIENTOS...SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ALCANZANDO
PRIMERO EL AREA BAJO AVISO PARA EL MEDIODIA DEL
VIERNES...DIFICULTANDO LOS PREPARATIVOS EN EL EXTERIOR. CONDICIONES
DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA EN
PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS EL SABADO.

LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE BERTHA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3
PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 5 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE
AREAS DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...PUERTO RICO...Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES
AMERICANAS HASTA EL SABADO EN LA NOCHE.


PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA...2:00 AM AST.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...5:00 AM AST.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART












000
WTNT33 KNHC 010259
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
1100 PM AST THU JUL 31 2014

...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DEVELOPS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN LESSER
ANTILLES...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 55.5W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BARBADOS AND DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ST. LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...
CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR MARTINIQUE FRIDAY
MORNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST. BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...31 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BARBADOS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES FRIDAY
EVENING.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
WARNING AREA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON
SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTNT23 KNHC 010257
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
0300 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BARBADOS AND DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ST. LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...
CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR MARTINIQUE FRIDAY
MORNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N  55.5W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N  55.5W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N  54.7W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.2N  58.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.5N  61.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.1N  64.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.9N  67.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.0N  73.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 26.8N  75.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 32.0N  74.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N  55.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTNT23 KNHC 010257
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
0300 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BARBADOS AND DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ST. LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...
CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR MARTINIQUE FRIDAY
MORNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N  55.5W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N  55.5W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N  54.7W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.2N  58.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.5N  61.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.1N  64.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.9N  67.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.0N  73.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 26.8N  75.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 32.0N  74.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N  55.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTNT23 KNHC 010257
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
0300 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BARBADOS AND DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ST. LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...
CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR MARTINIQUE FRIDAY
MORNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N  55.5W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N  55.5W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N  54.7W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.2N  58.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.5N  61.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.1N  64.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.9N  67.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.0N  73.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 26.8N  75.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 32.0N  74.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N  55.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTNT23 KNHC 010257
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
0300 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BARBADOS AND DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ST. LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...
CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR MARTINIQUE FRIDAY
MORNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N  55.5W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N  55.5W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N  54.7W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.2N  58.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.5N  61.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.1N  64.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.9N  67.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.0N  73.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 26.8N  75.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 32.0N  74.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N  55.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010241
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF T.S. ISELLE AT 01/0300 UTC IS NEAR 13.2N 123.9W.
ISELLE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290 DEGREES 10 KNOTS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTPZ24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP4.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 110N TO 14N
BETWEEN 122W AND 125W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 107W/108W FROM 19N TO 10N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 105W AND
108W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN
100W AND 110W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N77W TO 09N86W TO 08N94W TO 12N118W TO
13N128W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N137W 1009 MB TO 12N140W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 08N TO 09N BETWEEN 88W AND
90W...FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W...AND FROM 12N TO 14N
BETWEEN 114W AND 117W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN
126W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 19N140W TO 26N128W
BEYOND THE CALIFORNIA BORDER WITH BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 22N111W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N TO 28N BETWEEN 106W AND 116W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 24N122W 17N126W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE
TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N117W TO 20N121W TO 15N125W BEYOND 15N140W.

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N137W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N
TO 13N BETWEEN 137W AND 140W. THE FORECAST IS FOR THIS LOW
CENTER TO MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BRINGING WITH
IT WIND SPEEDS TO 20 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET
WITHIN 300 NM TO 360 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN
SEMICIRCLE.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N127W 24N128W 22N129W. THIS TROUGH
IS THE REMNANT OF HERNAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WIND SPEEDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KNOTS NOW.
THE FORECAST IS FOR NORTHEAST WINDS TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS TO NOON ON FRIDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL SLOW DOWN AFTER NOON...AND THEN REACH NEAR 20 KNOTS AGAIN
AROUND SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.


$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010241
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF T.S. ISELLE AT 01/0300 UTC IS NEAR 13.2N 123.9W.
ISELLE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290 DEGREES 10 KNOTS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTPZ24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP4.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 110N TO 14N
BETWEEN 122W AND 125W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 107W/108W FROM 19N TO 10N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 105W AND
108W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN
100W AND 110W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N77W TO 09N86W TO 08N94W TO 12N118W TO
13N128W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N137W 1009 MB TO 12N140W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 08N TO 09N BETWEEN 88W AND
90W...FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W...AND FROM 12N TO 14N
BETWEEN 114W AND 117W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN
126W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 19N140W TO 26N128W
BEYOND THE CALIFORNIA BORDER WITH BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 22N111W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N TO 28N BETWEEN 106W AND 116W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 24N122W 17N126W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE
TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N117W TO 20N121W TO 15N125W BEYOND 15N140W.

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N137W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N
TO 13N BETWEEN 137W AND 140W. THE FORECAST IS FOR THIS LOW
CENTER TO MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BRINGING WITH
IT WIND SPEEDS TO 20 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET
WITHIN 300 NM TO 360 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN
SEMICIRCLE.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N127W 24N128W 22N129W. THIS TROUGH
IS THE REMNANT OF HERNAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WIND SPEEDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KNOTS NOW.
THE FORECAST IS FOR NORTHEAST WINDS TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS TO NOON ON FRIDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL SLOW DOWN AFTER NOON...AND THEN REACH NEAR 20 KNOTS AGAIN
AROUND SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.


$$
MT


000
WTPZ34 KNHC 010225
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014
800 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

...ISELLE A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FAR FROM
LAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 123.9W
ABOUT 1135 MI...1830 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.9 WEST. ISELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
WTPZ34 KNHC 010225
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014
800 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

...ISELLE A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FAR FROM
LAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 123.9W
ABOUT 1135 MI...1830 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.9 WEST. ISELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ24 KNHC 010224
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014
0300 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 123.9W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  60SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 123.9W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 123.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.8N 125.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.6N 126.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.2N 128.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.6N 130.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.5N 134.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 16.5N 140.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 123.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN





000
WTPZ24 KNHC 010224
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014
0300 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 123.9W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  60SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 123.9W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 123.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.8N 125.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.6N 126.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.2N 128.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.6N 130.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.5N 134.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 16.5N 140.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 123.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN





000
WTPZ24 KNHC 010224
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014
0300 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 123.9W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  60SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 123.9W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 123.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.8N 125.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.6N 126.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.2N 128.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.6N 130.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.5N 134.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 16.5N 140.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 123.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN





000
WTPZ24 KNHC 010224
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014
0300 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 123.9W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  60SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 123.9W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 123.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.8N 125.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.6N 126.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.2N 128.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.6N 130.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.5N 134.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 16.5N 140.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 123.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN





000
AXNT20 KNHC 312358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N53W...OR 500 NM E OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...IS MOVING W-NW 15 KT. A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
MEASURED 40 KT GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
LOW. THE LOW PRESENTLY LACKS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
THUS WAS NOT NAMED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ONLY A SMALL 15 NM RADIUS
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOW 90 NM E OF THE
CENTER. DRY SAHARAN DUST IS NOTED NEAR THE LOW CENTER. THE LOW
DOES HAVE HOWEVER A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION WITHIN 48
HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BEGINNING EARLY
FRIDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N33W TO 9N29W MOVING W AT 10 KT.
A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED ON THE BASE OF THE WAVE AXIS AT 10N32W.
A MOIST AREA IS NOTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS N AND W OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE. A SMALL 30 NM RADIUS AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOW 120 NM SE OF THE CENTER.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM
18N60W TO 10N58W AND MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS TO
THE W-NW OF THE 1007 MB GALE LOW DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION. A MOIST AREA IS NOTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS N
OF 18N AND E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
10N-17N BETWEEN 60W-62W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AT 20N16W
TO AN EMBEDDED 1012 MB LOW AT 19N19W TO 13N18W TO 11N22W TO
10N32W TO 4N38W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 4N38W TO 5N46W TO 9N51W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES AND SPECIAL FEATURE LOW...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 31W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA
AT 30N82W TO S FLORIDA AT 26N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 25N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AND S
FLORIDA S OF 28N. AIR MASS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
OVER W CUBA...AND N YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE SE GULF FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 83W-88W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST S OF HOUSTON.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABOVE THE STATIONARY
FRONT...AND OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO
DISSIPATE. AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE SE
GULF HOWEVER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SEE ABOVE. 10-
25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. AIR MASS SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...E
HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA. MORE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER E CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF
HONDURAS NEAR 17N86W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF
VENEZUELA NEAR 12N65W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND THE SW
CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT MORE AIRMASS CONVECTION FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 69W-73W. MORE AIR MASS AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND N BAHAMAS FROM 27N-
32N BETWEEN 77W-80W. A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 29N49W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW
TO 26N48W TO 28N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
LOW AND TROUGH. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 65W-70W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 31N50N ENHANCING SHOWERS OVER THE SURFACE TROUGH.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 312358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N53W...OR 500 NM E OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...IS MOVING W-NW 15 KT. A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
MEASURED 40 KT GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
LOW. THE LOW PRESENTLY LACKS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
THUS WAS NOT NAMED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ONLY A SMALL 15 NM RADIUS
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOW 90 NM E OF THE
CENTER. DRY SAHARAN DUST IS NOTED NEAR THE LOW CENTER. THE LOW
DOES HAVE HOWEVER A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION WITHIN 48
HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BEGINNING EARLY
FRIDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N33W TO 9N29W MOVING W AT 10 KT.
A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED ON THE BASE OF THE WAVE AXIS AT 10N32W.
A MOIST AREA IS NOTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS N AND W OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE. A SMALL 30 NM RADIUS AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOW 120 NM SE OF THE CENTER.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM
18N60W TO 10N58W AND MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS TO
THE W-NW OF THE 1007 MB GALE LOW DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION. A MOIST AREA IS NOTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS N
OF 18N AND E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
10N-17N BETWEEN 60W-62W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AT 20N16W
TO AN EMBEDDED 1012 MB LOW AT 19N19W TO 13N18W TO 11N22W TO
10N32W TO 4N38W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 4N38W TO 5N46W TO 9N51W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES AND SPECIAL FEATURE LOW...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 31W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA
AT 30N82W TO S FLORIDA AT 26N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 25N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AND S
FLORIDA S OF 28N. AIR MASS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
OVER W CUBA...AND N YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE SE GULF FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 83W-88W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST S OF HOUSTON.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABOVE THE STATIONARY
FRONT...AND OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO
DISSIPATE. AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE SE
GULF HOWEVER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SEE ABOVE. 10-
25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. AIR MASS SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...E
HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA. MORE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER E CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF
HONDURAS NEAR 17N86W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF
VENEZUELA NEAR 12N65W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND THE SW
CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT MORE AIRMASS CONVECTION FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 69W-73W. MORE AIR MASS AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND N BAHAMAS FROM 27N-
32N BETWEEN 77W-80W. A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 29N49W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW
TO 26N48W TO 28N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
LOW AND TROUGH. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 65W-70W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 31N50N ENHANCING SHOWERS OVER THE SURFACE TROUGH.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
ACPN50 PHFO 312352
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST THU JUL 31 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE HAS WEAKENED TO A POST TROPICAL
LOW AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
OAHU IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT MAY PERMIT THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES WEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE, AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

MORRISON





000
ACPN50 PHFO 312352
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST THU JUL 31 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE HAS WEAKENED TO A POST TROPICAL
LOW AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...HAWAII. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
OAHU IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT MAY PERMIT THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES WEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE, AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

MORRISON






000
ACCA62 TJSJ 312352
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT JUEVES 31 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA
INVESTIGO ESTA TARDE EL BIEN DEFINIDO SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADO A 350 MILLAS AL ESTE SURESTE DE BARBADOS...Y ENCONTRO
VIENTOS EN LA SUPERFICIE DE 40 A 45 MPH A TRAVES DE PORCIONES DEL
NORTE Y ESTE DE LA CIRCULACION. AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS HAN AUMENTADO
AL ESTE DEL CENTRO DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS...Y SI ESTA TENDENCIA
DE DESARROLLO CONTINUA UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL PODRIA FORMARSE MAS
TARDE ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL VIERNES. INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DE SU
DESARROLLO...VIENTOS DE FUERZA GALERNA SON PROBABLES QUE AFECTEN
PORCIONES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES CENTRALES COMENZANDO A MEDIADOS
DEL VIERNES. LOS INTERESADOS EN LAS ANTILLAS MENORES DEBEN CONTINUAR
MONITOREANDO EL PROGRESO DE ESTE DISTURBIO A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE
HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH...DADO A QUE VIGILANCIAS O
AVISOS PUDIERAN SER REQUERIDOS PARA ALGUNAS DE LAS ISLAS TARDE ESTA
NOCHE O EL VIERNES.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 48 HORAS...ALTA...80 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 5 DIAS...ALTA...80 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 312352
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT JUEVES 31 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA
INVESTIGO ESTA TARDE EL BIEN DEFINIDO SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADO A 350 MILLAS AL ESTE SURESTE DE BARBADOS...Y ENCONTRO
VIENTOS EN LA SUPERFICIE DE 40 A 45 MPH A TRAVES DE PORCIONES DEL
NORTE Y ESTE DE LA CIRCULACION. AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS HAN AUMENTADO
AL ESTE DEL CENTRO DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS...Y SI ESTA TENDENCIA
DE DESARROLLO CONTINUA UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL PODRIA FORMARSE MAS
TARDE ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL VIERNES. INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DE SU
DESARROLLO...VIENTOS DE FUERZA GALERNA SON PROBABLES QUE AFECTEN
PORCIONES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES CENTRALES COMENZANDO A MEDIADOS
DEL VIERNES. LOS INTERESADOS EN LAS ANTILLAS MENORES DEBEN CONTINUAR
MONITOREANDO EL PROGRESO DE ESTE DISTURBIO A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE
HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH...DADO A QUE VIGILANCIAS O
AVISOS PUDIERAN SER REQUERIDOS PARA ALGUNAS DE LAS ISLAS TARDE ESTA
NOCHE O EL VIERNES.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 48 HORAS...ALTA...80 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 5 DIAS...ALTA...80 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 312352
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT JUEVES 31 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA
INVESTIGO ESTA TARDE EL BIEN DEFINIDO SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADO A 350 MILLAS AL ESTE SURESTE DE BARBADOS...Y ENCONTRO
VIENTOS EN LA SUPERFICIE DE 40 A 45 MPH A TRAVES DE PORCIONES DEL
NORTE Y ESTE DE LA CIRCULACION. AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS HAN AUMENTADO
AL ESTE DEL CENTRO DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS...Y SI ESTA TENDENCIA
DE DESARROLLO CONTINUA UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL PODRIA FORMARSE MAS
TARDE ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL VIERNES. INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DE SU
DESARROLLO...VIENTOS DE FUERZA GALERNA SON PROBABLES QUE AFECTEN
PORCIONES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES CENTRALES COMENZANDO A MEDIADOS
DEL VIERNES. LOS INTERESADOS EN LAS ANTILLAS MENORES DEBEN CONTINUAR
MONITOREANDO EL PROGRESO DE ESTE DISTURBIO A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE
HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH...DADO A QUE VIGILANCIAS O
AVISOS PUDIERAN SER REQUERIDOS PARA ALGUNAS DE LAS ISLAS TARDE ESTA
NOCHE O EL VIERNES.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 48 HORAS...ALTA...80 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 5 DIAS...ALTA...80 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 312352
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT JUEVES 31 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA
INVESTIGO ESTA TARDE EL BIEN DEFINIDO SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADO A 350 MILLAS AL ESTE SURESTE DE BARBADOS...Y ENCONTRO
VIENTOS EN LA SUPERFICIE DE 40 A 45 MPH A TRAVES DE PORCIONES DEL
NORTE Y ESTE DE LA CIRCULACION. AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS HAN AUMENTADO
AL ESTE DEL CENTRO DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS...Y SI ESTA TENDENCIA
DE DESARROLLO CONTINUA UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL PODRIA FORMARSE MAS
TARDE ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL VIERNES. INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DE SU
DESARROLLO...VIENTOS DE FUERZA GALERNA SON PROBABLES QUE AFECTEN
PORCIONES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES CENTRALES COMENZANDO A MEDIADOS
DEL VIERNES. LOS INTERESADOS EN LAS ANTILLAS MENORES DEBEN CONTINUAR
MONITOREANDO EL PROGRESO DE ESTE DISTURBIO A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE
HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH...DADO A QUE VIGILANCIAS O
AVISOS PUDIERAN SER REQUERIDOS PARA ALGUNAS DE LAS ISLAS TARDE ESTA
NOCHE O EL VIERNES.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 48 HORAS...ALTA...80 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 5 DIAS...ALTA...80 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART




000
ABPZ20 KNHC 312342
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Iselle, located more than a thousand miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure located about 1350 miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Upper-level winds are only marginally
favorable, and any development of this system should be slow to
occur while it moves westward at around 10 mph during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico. Some gradual development of this system is
possible during the next few days while it moves westward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Iselle are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4. Forecast/Advisories on Iselle are
issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ABNT20 KNHC 312342
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft this afternoon and
evening investigated the well-defined low pressure system located
about 350 miles east-southeast of Barbados, and found surface winds
of 40 to 45 mph across the northern and eastern portions of the
circulation.  Showers and thunderstorms have increased east of the
center during the past couple of hours, and if this development
trend continues a tropical storm could form later tonight or early
Friday. Regardless of development, gale-force winds are likely to
spread across portions of the central Lesser Antilles beginning by
midday Friday.  Interests in these areas should continue to monitor
the progress of this disturbance as it moves west-northwestward near
20 mph, since watches or warnings could be required for some of
these islands later tonight or Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 312342
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft this afternoon and
evening investigated the well-defined low pressure system located
about 350 miles east-southeast of Barbados, and found surface winds
of 40 to 45 mph across the northern and eastern portions of the
circulation.  Showers and thunderstorms have increased east of the
center during the past couple of hours, and if this development
trend continues a tropical storm could form later tonight or early
Friday. Regardless of development, gale-force winds are likely to
spread across portions of the central Lesser Antilles beginning by
midday Friday.  Interests in these areas should continue to monitor
the progress of this disturbance as it moves west-northwestward near
20 mph, since watches or warnings could be required for some of
these islands later tonight or Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312142
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUL 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE DEVELOPED AT 31/2100 UTC. THE CENTER OF
T.S. ISELLE AT 31/2100 UTC IS NEAR 12.7N 122.3W. ISELLE IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 295 DEGREES 9 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ24 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP4. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 120W AND
124W...AND FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 124W AND 130W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 105W/106W FROM 18N TO 10N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND
109W...FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 109W...AND FROM 06N TO
10N BETWEEN 101W AND 108W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 09N86W TO 08N95W TO 10N111W TO
T.S. ISELLE...TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N135W TO 11N140W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 06N TO 09N
BETWEEN 89W AND 91W...AND FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 11W AND 116W.
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 93W AND 99W...AND FROM
10N TO 12N BETWEEN 99W AND 101W.

...DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 19N140W TO 26N128W
BEYOND THE CALIFORNIA BORDER WITH BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 22N112W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N TO 28N BETWEEN 106W AND 116W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MEXICO FROM
21N TO 25N BETWEEN 105W AND 108W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 24N122W 17N126W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE
TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N117W TO 20N121W TO 15N125W BEYOND 15N140W.

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N135W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 136W AND
138W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 133W AND 138W.
THE FORECAST IS FOR THIS LOW CENTER TO MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...BRINGING WITH IT WIND SPEEDS TO 20 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET WITHIN 300 NM TO 360 NM OF THE CENTER
IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N126W 25N128W 23N128W. THIS TROUGH
IS THE REMNANT OF HERNAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SHIP OBSERVATION FROM 31/1815 UTC SHOWS
AN EAST WIND 30 KNOTS FROM 10N TO 11N ALONG 87W. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. NORTHEAST WINDS TO 20 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO
START AROUND SUNRISE ON FRIDAY MORNING FROM 10N TO 11N FROM 88W
EASTWARD...LASTING UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS TO 20 KNOTS WILL START AGAIN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT
ON EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON OF SATURDAY.

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312142
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUL 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE DEVELOPED AT 31/2100 UTC. THE CENTER OF
T.S. ISELLE AT 31/2100 UTC IS NEAR 12.7N 122.3W. ISELLE IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 295 DEGREES 9 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ24 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP4. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 120W AND
124W...AND FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 124W AND 130W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 105W/106W FROM 18N TO 10N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND
109W...FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 109W...AND FROM 06N TO
10N BETWEEN 101W AND 108W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 09N86W TO 08N95W TO 10N111W TO
T.S. ISELLE...TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N135W TO 11N140W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 06N TO 09N
BETWEEN 89W AND 91W...AND FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 11W AND 116W.
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 93W AND 99W...AND FROM
10N TO 12N BETWEEN 99W AND 101W.

...DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 19N140W TO 26N128W
BEYOND THE CALIFORNIA BORDER WITH BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 22N112W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N TO 28N BETWEEN 106W AND 116W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MEXICO FROM
21N TO 25N BETWEEN 105W AND 108W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 24N122W 17N126W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE
TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N117W TO 20N121W TO 15N125W BEYOND 15N140W.

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N135W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 136W AND
138W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 133W AND 138W.
THE FORECAST IS FOR THIS LOW CENTER TO MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...BRINGING WITH IT WIND SPEEDS TO 20 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET WITHIN 300 NM TO 360 NM OF THE CENTER
IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N126W 25N128W 23N128W. THIS TROUGH
IS THE REMNANT OF HERNAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SHIP OBSERVATION FROM 31/1815 UTC SHOWS
AN EAST WIND 30 KNOTS FROM 10N TO 11N ALONG 87W. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. NORTHEAST WINDS TO 20 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO
START AROUND SUNRISE ON FRIDAY MORNING FROM 10N TO 11N FROM 88W
EASTWARD...LASTING UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS TO 20 KNOTS WILL START AGAIN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT
ON EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON OF SATURDAY.

$$
MT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 312135
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
800 AM CHST FRI AUG 1 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.7N 139.2E

ABOUT 380 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 405 MILES WEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 430 MILES WEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 435 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW...255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
139.2 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 9 MPH. HALONG IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. HALONG IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND MAY BECOME A TYPHOON LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE





000
WTPQ31 PGUM 312135
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
800 AM CHST FRI AUG 1 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.7N 139.2E

ABOUT 380 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 405 MILES WEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 430 MILES WEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 435 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW...255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
139.2 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 9 MPH. HALONG IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. HALONG IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND MAY BECOME A TYPHOON LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE






000
WTPA32 PHFO 312050
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GENEVIEVE ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
1100 AM HST THU JUL 31 2014

...GENEVIEVE WEAKENS TO A POST-TROPICAL LOW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 151.1W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1255 MI...2020 KM E OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
GENEVIEVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 151.1
WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7
MPH...11 KM/H ...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO TO CONTINUE FOR
THE 48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER ON GENEVIEVE UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER
HFOHSFNP AND WMO HEADER FZPN40 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER BURKE







000
WTPA32 PHFO 312050
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GENEVIEVE ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
1100 AM HST THU JUL 31 2014

...GENEVIEVE WEAKENS TO A POST-TROPICAL LOW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 151.1W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1255 MI...2020 KM E OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
GENEVIEVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 151.1
WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7
MPH...11 KM/H ...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO TO CONTINUE FOR
THE 48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER ON GENEVIEVE UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER
HFOHSFNP AND WMO HEADER FZPN40 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER BURKE







000
WTPA32 PHFO 312050
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GENEVIEVE ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
1100 AM HST THU JUL 31 2014

...GENEVIEVE WEAKENS TO A POST-TROPICAL LOW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 151.1W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1255 MI...2020 KM E OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
GENEVIEVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 151.1
WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7
MPH...11 KM/H ...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO TO CONTINUE FOR
THE 48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER ON GENEVIEVE UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER
HFOHSFNP AND WMO HEADER FZPN40 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER BURKE







000
WTPA32 PHFO 312050
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GENEVIEVE ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
1100 AM HST THU JUL 31 2014

...GENEVIEVE WEAKENS TO A POST-TROPICAL LOW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 151.1W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1255 MI...2020 KM E OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
GENEVIEVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 151.1
WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7
MPH...11 KM/H ...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO TO CONTINUE FOR
THE 48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER ON GENEVIEVE UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER
HFOHSFNP AND WMO HEADER FZPN40 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER BURKE







000
WTPA22 PHFO 312049
TCMCP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
2100 UTC THU JUL 31 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 151.1W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 151.1W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 150.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.0N 152.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.9N 153.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.8N 155.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.7N 157.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 12.5N 162.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 12.6N 167.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 13.2N 172.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 151.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER ON GENEVIEVE UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER
HFOHSFNP AND WMO HEADER FZPN40 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER BURKE







000
WTPA22 PHFO 312049
TCMCP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
2100 UTC THU JUL 31 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 151.1W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 151.1W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 150.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.0N 152.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.9N 153.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.8N 155.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.7N 157.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 12.5N 162.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 12.6N 167.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 13.2N 172.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 151.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER ON GENEVIEVE UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER
HFOHSFNP AND WMO HEADER FZPN40 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER BURKE








000
WTPZ34 KNHC 312035
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014
200 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

...TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FAR FROM
LAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 122.3W
ABOUT 1075 MI...1730 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.3 WEST.  ISELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H.  THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG



000
WTPZ34 KNHC 312035
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014
200 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

...TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FAR FROM
LAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 122.3W
ABOUT 1075 MI...1730 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.3 WEST.  ISELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H.  THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG



000
WTPZ34 KNHC 312035
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014
200 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

...TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FAR FROM
LAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 122.3W
ABOUT 1075 MI...1730 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.3 WEST.  ISELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H.  THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG



000
WTPZ34 KNHC 312035
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014
200 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

...TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FAR FROM
LAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 122.3W
ABOUT 1075 MI...1730 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.3 WEST.  ISELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H.  THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG



000
WTPZ24 KNHC 312034
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014
2100 UTC THU JUL 31 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 122.3W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  60SE   0SW  50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 122.3W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 121.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.4N 123.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.2N 125.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.8N 126.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.1N 128.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.0N 132.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  70SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 135.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 16.0N 138.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 122.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
WTPZ24 KNHC 312034
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014
2100 UTC THU JUL 31 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 122.3W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  60SE   0SW  50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 122.3W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 121.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.4N 123.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.2N 125.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.8N 126.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.1N 128.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.0N 132.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  70SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 135.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 16.0N 138.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 122.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
WTPZ24 KNHC 312034
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014
2100 UTC THU JUL 31 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 122.3W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  60SE   0SW  50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 122.3W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 121.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.4N 123.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.2N 125.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.8N 126.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.1N 128.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.0N 132.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  70SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 135.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 16.0N 138.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 122.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
WTPZ24 KNHC 312034
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014
2100 UTC THU JUL 31 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 122.3W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  60SE   0SW  50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 122.3W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 121.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.4N 123.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.2N 125.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.8N 126.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.1N 128.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.0N 132.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  70SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 135.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 16.0N 138.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 122.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 312022
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA ESPECIAL SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
415 PM EDT JUEVES 31 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AVION CAZA HURACANES CONTINUA INVESTIGANDO EL SISTEMA DE BAJA
PRESION LOCALIZADO A 500 MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO
SUR. OBSERVACIONES DESDE EL AVION INDICAN QUE ESTE SISTEMA ESTA
PRODUCIENDO VIENTOS DE HASTA 40 A 45 MPH EN LA PARTE NORTE DE LA
CIRCULACION. AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADOS PODRIAN REDESARROLLARSE
SOBRE ESTA BAJA PRESION ESTA NOCHE O VIERNES...LO CUAL RESULTARIA EN
LA FORMACION DE UN CICLON TROPICAL. INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DE SU
DESARROLLO...VIENTOS DE FUERZA GALERNA SON PROBABLES QUE AFECTEN
PORCIONES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES COMENZANDO TEMPRANO EL VIERNES.
LOS INTERESADOS EN LAS ANTILLAS MENORES DEBEN CONTINUAR MONITOREANDO
EL PROGRESO DE ESTE DISTURBIO A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE
NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH...Y VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS PUDIERAN SER
REQUERIDOS PARA ALGUNAS DE LAS ISLAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE O EL VIERNES.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 48 HORAS...ALTA...70 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 312022
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA ESPECIAL SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
415 PM EDT JUEVES 31 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AVION CAZA HURACANES CONTINUA INVESTIGANDO EL SISTEMA DE BAJA
PRESION LOCALIZADO A 500 MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO
SUR. OBSERVACIONES DESDE EL AVION INDICAN QUE ESTE SISTEMA ESTA
PRODUCIENDO VIENTOS DE HASTA 40 A 45 MPH EN LA PARTE NORTE DE LA
CIRCULACION. AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADOS PODRIAN REDESARROLLARSE
SOBRE ESTA BAJA PRESION ESTA NOCHE O VIERNES...LO CUAL RESULTARIA EN
LA FORMACION DE UN CICLON TROPICAL. INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DE SU
DESARROLLO...VIENTOS DE FUERZA GALERNA SON PROBABLES QUE AFECTEN
PORCIONES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES COMENZANDO TEMPRANO EL VIERNES.
LOS INTERESADOS EN LAS ANTILLAS MENORES DEBEN CONTINUAR MONITOREANDO
EL PROGRESO DE ESTE DISTURBIO A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE
NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH...Y VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS PUDIERAN SER
REQUERIDOS PARA ALGUNAS DE LAS ISLAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE O EL VIERNES.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 48 HORAS...ALTA...70 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH





000
ABNT20 KNHC 312013
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
415 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A Hurricane Hunter aircraft has continued to investigate the
low pressure system located about 500 miles east of the Windward
Islands.  Observations from the aircraft indicate that this system
is producing winds of up to 40 to 45 mph in the northern portion of
the circulation.  Showers and thunderstorms could redevelop over
the low tonight or Friday, which could result in tropical cyclone
formation.  Regardless of development, winds of gale force are
likely to spread across portions of the Lesser Antilles beginning
early Friday.  Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue
to monitor the progress of this disturbance as it moves
west-northwestward near 20 mph, and watches or warnings may be
required for some of these islands later tonight or Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABNT20 KNHC 312013
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
415 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A Hurricane Hunter aircraft has continued to investigate the
low pressure system located about 500 miles east of the Windward
Islands.  Observations from the aircraft indicate that this system
is producing winds of up to 40 to 45 mph in the northern portion of
the circulation.  Showers and thunderstorms could redevelop over
the low tonight or Friday, which could result in tropical cyclone
formation.  Regardless of development, winds of gale force are
likely to spread across portions of the Lesser Antilles beginning
early Friday.  Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue
to monitor the progress of this disturbance as it moves
west-northwestward near 20 mph, and watches or warnings may be
required for some of these islands later tonight or Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABNT20 KNHC 312013
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
415 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A Hurricane Hunter aircraft has continued to investigate the
low pressure system located about 500 miles east of the Windward
Islands.  Observations from the aircraft indicate that this system
is producing winds of up to 40 to 45 mph in the northern portion of
the circulation.  Showers and thunderstorms could redevelop over
the low tonight or Friday, which could result in tropical cyclone
formation.  Regardless of development, winds of gale force are
likely to spread across portions of the Lesser Antilles beginning
early Friday.  Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue
to monitor the progress of this disturbance as it moves
west-northwestward near 20 mph, and watches or warnings may be
required for some of these islands later tonight or Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABNT20 KNHC 312013
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
415 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A Hurricane Hunter aircraft has continued to investigate the
low pressure system located about 500 miles east of the Windward
Islands.  Observations from the aircraft indicate that this system
is producing winds of up to 40 to 45 mph in the northern portion of
the circulation.  Showers and thunderstorms could redevelop over
the low tonight or Friday, which could result in tropical cyclone
formation.  Regardless of development, winds of gale force are
likely to spread across portions of the Lesser Antilles beginning
early Friday.  Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue
to monitor the progress of this disturbance as it moves
west-northwestward near 20 mph, and watches or warnings may be
required for some of these islands later tonight or Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 311818
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT JUEVES 31 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AVION CAZA HURACANES HA COMENZADO RECIENTEMENTE A INVESTIGAR EL
SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADO A 550 MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS
DE SOTAVENTO SUR. REPORTES PRELIMINARES DESDE EL AVION INDICAN QUE
ESTE SISTEMA ESTA PRODUCIENDO VIENTOS CERCA DE FUERZA GALENA. SIN
EMBARGO...IMAGENES DE SATELITE INDICAN QUE LOS AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS
ASOCIADOS HAN DISMINUIDO SIGNIFICATIVAMENTE DESDE ESTA MANANA. POR
LO TANTO LA BAJA PRESION NO CUMPLE CON LOS CRITERIOS PARA DESIGNARLO
COMO UN CICLON TROPICAL. AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS PODRIAN
REDESARROLLARSE MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE...LO CUAL PODRIA RESULTAR
EN LA FORMACION DE UN CICLON TROPICAL. LOS INTERESADOS EN LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES DEBEN CONTINUAR MONITOREANDO EL PROGRESO DE ESTE
DISTURBIO A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE DE 15 A 20
MPH...Y VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS PUDIERAN SER REQUERIDOS PARA ALGUNAS DE
LAS ISLAS MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 48 HORAS...ALTA...70 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 311818
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT JUEVES 31 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AVION CAZA HURACANES HA COMENZADO RECIENTEMENTE A INVESTIGAR EL
SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADO A 550 MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS
DE SOTAVENTO SUR. REPORTES PRELIMINARES DESDE EL AVION INDICAN QUE
ESTE SISTEMA ESTA PRODUCIENDO VIENTOS CERCA DE FUERZA GALENA. SIN
EMBARGO...IMAGENES DE SATELITE INDICAN QUE LOS AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS
ASOCIADOS HAN DISMINUIDO SIGNIFICATIVAMENTE DESDE ESTA MANANA. POR
LO TANTO LA BAJA PRESION NO CUMPLE CON LOS CRITERIOS PARA DESIGNARLO
COMO UN CICLON TROPICAL. AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS PODRIAN
REDESARROLLARSE MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE...LO CUAL PODRIA RESULTAR
EN LA FORMACION DE UN CICLON TROPICAL. LOS INTERESADOS EN LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES DEBEN CONTINUAR MONITOREANDO EL PROGRESO DE ESTE
DISTURBIO A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE DE 15 A 20
MPH...Y VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS PUDIERAN SER REQUERIDOS PARA ALGUNAS DE
LAS ISLAS MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 48 HORAS...ALTA...70 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH





000
ACPN50 PHFO 311759
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST THU JUL 31 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 550
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GENEVIEVE IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 6 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU BY 11 AM HST THIS
MORNING.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
OAHU IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT MAY PERMIT THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST AT ABOUT 10
MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, AND ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR WHILE IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.


$$

MORRISON





000
ACPN50 PHFO 311759
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST THU JUL 31 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 550
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GENEVIEVE IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 6 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU BY 11 AM HST THIS
MORNING.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
OAHU IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT MAY PERMIT THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST AT ABOUT 10
MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, AND ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR WHILE IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.


$$

MORRISON






000
ABNT20 KNHC 311758
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A Hurricane Hunter aircraft has recently begun investigating the
low pressure system located about 550 miles east of the southern
Windward Islands.  Preliminary reports from the aircraft indicate
that this system is producing winds to near gale force.  However,
satellite images indicate that the associated showers and
thunderstorms have diminished significantly since this morning.
Therefore the low currently does not meet the criteria to designate
it as a tropical cyclone.  Showers and thunderstorms could
redevelop later today or tonight, which could result in tropical
cyclone formation.  Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue
to monitor the progress of this disturbance as it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and watches or warnings may be
required for some of these islands later today or tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABNT20 KNHC 311758
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A Hurricane Hunter aircraft has recently begun investigating the
low pressure system located about 550 miles east of the southern
Windward Islands.  Preliminary reports from the aircraft indicate
that this system is producing winds to near gale force.  However,
satellite images indicate that the associated showers and
thunderstorms have diminished significantly since this morning.
Therefore the low currently does not meet the criteria to designate
it as a tropical cyclone.  Showers and thunderstorms could
redevelop later today or tonight, which could result in tropical
cyclone formation.  Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue
to monitor the progress of this disturbance as it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and watches or warnings may be
required for some of these islands later today or tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABNT20 KNHC 311758
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A Hurricane Hunter aircraft has recently begun investigating the
low pressure system located about 550 miles east of the southern
Windward Islands.  Preliminary reports from the aircraft indicate
that this system is producing winds to near gale force.  However,
satellite images indicate that the associated showers and
thunderstorms have diminished significantly since this morning.
Therefore the low currently does not meet the criteria to designate
it as a tropical cyclone.  Showers and thunderstorms could
redevelop later today or tonight, which could result in tropical
cyclone formation.  Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue
to monitor the progress of this disturbance as it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and watches or warnings may be
required for some of these islands later today or tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABNT20 KNHC 311758
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A Hurricane Hunter aircraft has recently begun investigating the
low pressure system located about 550 miles east of the southern
Windward Islands.  Preliminary reports from the aircraft indicate
that this system is producing winds to near gale force.  However,
satellite images indicate that the associated showers and
thunderstorms have diminished significantly since this morning.
Therefore the low currently does not meet the criteria to designate
it as a tropical cyclone.  Showers and thunderstorms could
redevelop later today or tonight, which could result in tropical
cyclone formation.  Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue
to monitor the progress of this disturbance as it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and watches or warnings may be
required for some of these islands later today or tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311744
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area located about
1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is gradually becoming better organized.  Environmental
conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form during the next day or two while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

An area of low pressure located about 1500 miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized cloudiness and
showers.  Upper-level winds are only marginally favorable, and any
development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves
westward at about 10 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, are associated with a tropical
wave.  Some gradual development is possible during the next few days
while this system moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311744
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area located about
1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is gradually becoming better organized.  Environmental
conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form during the next day or two while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

An area of low pressure located about 1500 miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized cloudiness and
showers.  Upper-level winds are only marginally favorable, and any
development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves
westward at about 10 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, are associated with a tropical
wave.  Some gradual development is possible during the next few days
while this system moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311744
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area located about
1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is gradually becoming better organized.  Environmental
conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form during the next day or two while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

An area of low pressure located about 1500 miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized cloudiness and
showers.  Upper-level winds are only marginally favorable, and any
development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves
westward at about 10 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, are associated with a tropical
wave.  Some gradual development is possible during the next few days
while this system moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311744
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area located about
1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is gradually becoming better organized.  Environmental
conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form during the next day or two while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

An area of low pressure located about 1500 miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized cloudiness and
showers.  Upper-level winds are only marginally favorable, and any
development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves
westward at about 10 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, are associated with a tropical
wave.  Some gradual development is possible during the next few days
while this system moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg


000
AXNT20 KNHC 311736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N51W...OR 560 NM E OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...IS MOVING W-NW 15 KT. THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS
OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS MARKED BY A TIGHT
SWIRL OF CLOUDS IN EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN
THE S SEMICIRCLE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 17N32W TO 09N32W IS MOVING W 10-
15 KT. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED AT THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE WAVE NEAR 09N32N. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERING MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AXIS TO 35W FROM 08N-12N.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 20N58W TO 09N57W IS MOVING W 15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE W-NW OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES 1010 MB
SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N51W. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IN A SMALL AREA AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N16W TO
11N25W TO 05N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM
06N-12N BETWEEN 13W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS MOST OF THE GULF WITH NO
WELL-DEFINED FEATURES AS NOTED IN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE
AREA IN 48 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
A 1015 MB LOW NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO ORLANDO TO NEAR
NAPLES AND THEN TURNS WESTWARD TO 26N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT IN THE GULF. SKIES
ARE MOST CLEAR N OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN ELONGATED SHAPED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
LOCATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N82W AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY NW. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS COVER MOST
OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. AN AREA OF STRONG TSTMS IS
LOCATED WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 08.5N77.5W.

...HISPANIOLA...
THE ISLAND IS NEAR THE BASE OF A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 24N66W. AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FORECAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR
24N66W AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WSW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED
FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 66W-71W. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT LIES NW OF THE
CIRCULATION IN THE AREA ROUGHLY N OF 24N W OF 70W. A LARGE
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF 33N48W AND IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. CYCLONIC FLOW
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO 26N BETWEEN 35W AND 55W. RIDGING ALOFT IS
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 25N E OF
40W INTO AFRICA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N74W TO A
1015 MB LOW NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AND UP TO 120 NM S OF THE FRONT. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 25N57W TO 22N59W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N35W THROUGH A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 29N43W TO
32N52W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB



000
AXNT20 KNHC 311736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N51W...OR 560 NM E OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...IS MOVING W-NW 15 KT. THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS
OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS MARKED BY A TIGHT
SWIRL OF CLOUDS IN EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN
THE S SEMICIRCLE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 17N32W TO 09N32W IS MOVING W 10-
15 KT. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED AT THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE WAVE NEAR 09N32N. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERING MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AXIS TO 35W FROM 08N-12N.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 20N58W TO 09N57W IS MOVING W 15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE W-NW OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES 1010 MB
SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N51W. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IN A SMALL AREA AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N16W TO
11N25W TO 05N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM
06N-12N BETWEEN 13W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS MOST OF THE GULF WITH NO
WELL-DEFINED FEATURES AS NOTED IN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE
AREA IN 48 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
A 1015 MB LOW NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO ORLANDO TO NEAR
NAPLES AND THEN TURNS WESTWARD TO 26N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT IN THE GULF. SKIES
ARE MOST CLEAR N OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN ELONGATED SHAPED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
LOCATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N82W AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY NW. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS COVER MOST
OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. AN AREA OF STRONG TSTMS IS
LOCATED WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 08.5N77.5W.

...HISPANIOLA...
THE ISLAND IS NEAR THE BASE OF A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 24N66W. AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FORECAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR
24N66W AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WSW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED
FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 66W-71W. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT LIES NW OF THE
CIRCULATION IN THE AREA ROUGHLY N OF 24N W OF 70W. A LARGE
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF 33N48W AND IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. CYCLONIC FLOW
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO 26N BETWEEN 35W AND 55W. RIDGING ALOFT IS
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 25N E OF
40W INTO AFRICA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N74W TO A
1015 MB LOW NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AND UP TO 120 NM S OF THE FRONT. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 25N57W TO 22N59W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N35W THROUGH A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 29N43W TO
32N52W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB



000
AXNT20 KNHC 311736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N51W...OR 560 NM E OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...IS MOVING W-NW 15 KT. THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS
OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS MARKED BY A TIGHT
SWIRL OF CLOUDS IN EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN
THE S SEMICIRCLE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 17N32W TO 09N32W IS MOVING W 10-
15 KT. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED AT THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE WAVE NEAR 09N32N. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERING MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AXIS TO 35W FROM 08N-12N.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 20N58W TO 09N57W IS MOVING W 15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE W-NW OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES 1010 MB
SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N51W. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IN A SMALL AREA AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N16W TO
11N25W TO 05N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM
06N-12N BETWEEN 13W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS MOST OF THE GULF WITH NO
WELL-DEFINED FEATURES AS NOTED IN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE
AREA IN 48 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
A 1015 MB LOW NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO ORLANDO TO NEAR
NAPLES AND THEN TURNS WESTWARD TO 26N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT IN THE GULF. SKIES
ARE MOST CLEAR N OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN ELONGATED SHAPED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
LOCATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N82W AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY NW. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS COVER MOST
OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. AN AREA OF STRONG TSTMS IS
LOCATED WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 08.5N77.5W.

...HISPANIOLA...
THE ISLAND IS NEAR THE BASE OF A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 24N66W. AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FORECAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR
24N66W AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WSW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED
FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 66W-71W. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT LIES NW OF THE
CIRCULATION IN THE AREA ROUGHLY N OF 24N W OF 70W. A LARGE
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF 33N48W AND IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. CYCLONIC FLOW
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO 26N BETWEEN 35W AND 55W. RIDGING ALOFT IS
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 25N E OF
40W INTO AFRICA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N74W TO A
1015 MB LOW NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AND UP TO 120 NM S OF THE FRONT. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 25N57W TO 22N59W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N35W THROUGH A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 29N43W TO
32N52W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB



000
AXNT20 KNHC 311736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N51W...OR 560 NM E OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...IS MOVING W-NW 15 KT. THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS
OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS MARKED BY A TIGHT
SWIRL OF CLOUDS IN EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN
THE S SEMICIRCLE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 17N32W TO 09N32W IS MOVING W 10-
15 KT. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED AT THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE WAVE NEAR 09N32N. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERING MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AXIS TO 35W FROM 08N-12N.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 20N58W TO 09N57W IS MOVING W 15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE W-NW OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES 1010 MB
SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N51W. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IN A SMALL AREA AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N16W TO
11N25W TO 05N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM
06N-12N BETWEEN 13W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS MOST OF THE GULF WITH NO
WELL-DEFINED FEATURES AS NOTED IN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE
AREA IN 48 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
A 1015 MB LOW NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO ORLANDO TO NEAR
NAPLES AND THEN TURNS WESTWARD TO 26N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT IN THE GULF. SKIES
ARE MOST CLEAR N OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN ELONGATED SHAPED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
LOCATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N82W AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY NW. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS COVER MOST
OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. AN AREA OF STRONG TSTMS IS
LOCATED WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 08.5N77.5W.

...HISPANIOLA...
THE ISLAND IS NEAR THE BASE OF A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 24N66W. AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FORECAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR
24N66W AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WSW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED
FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 66W-71W. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT LIES NW OF THE
CIRCULATION IN THE AREA ROUGHLY N OF 24N W OF 70W. A LARGE
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF 33N48W AND IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. CYCLONIC FLOW
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO 26N BETWEEN 35W AND 55W. RIDGING ALOFT IS
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 25N E OF
40W INTO AFRICA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N74W TO A
1015 MB LOW NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AND UP TO 120 NM S OF THE FRONT. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 25N57W TO 22N59W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N35W THROUGH A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 29N43W TO
32N52W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 311551
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
200 AM CHST FRI AUG 1 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.9N 140.0E

ABOUT 335 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 375 MILES WEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 385 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
140.0 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH...AND IS EXPECTED TO
TURN SLOWLY NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER. HALONG
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY STEADILY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND MAY
BECOME A TYPHOON LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE





000
WTPQ31 PGUM 311551
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
200 AM CHST FRI AUG 1 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.9N 140.0E

ABOUT 335 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 375 MILES WEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 385 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
140.0 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH...AND IS EXPECTED TO
TURN SLOWLY NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER. HALONG
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY STEADILY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND MAY
BECOME A TYPHOON LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE





000
WTPQ31 PGUM 311551
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
200 AM CHST FRI AUG 1 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.9N 140.0E

ABOUT 335 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 375 MILES WEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 385 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
140.0 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH...AND IS EXPECTED TO
TURN SLOWLY NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER. HALONG
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY STEADILY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND MAY
BECOME A TYPHOON LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE





000
WTPQ31 PGUM 311551
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
200 AM CHST FRI AUG 1 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.9N 140.0E

ABOUT 335 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 375 MILES WEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 385 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
140.0 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH...AND IS EXPECTED TO
TURN SLOWLY NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER. HALONG
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY STEADILY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND MAY
BECOME A TYPHOON LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE





000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311530
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SURROUNDING THE 1010 MB LOW NEAR
12N121W. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS
NO LONGER EVIDENT AND WAS DROPPED FROM THE 12OO UTC ANALYSIS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF
CENTER OVER SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 12N119W TO
11N121W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 118W AND 120W. ANOTHER
CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS THE
PERSISTENT LOCATION OF THE LOW ON THE S SIDE OF A SHARP UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG ROUGHLY 120W/121W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IS INCREASING IN THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES W-NW NEAR
10 KT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND THE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HIGH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N103W TO 18N104W MOVING W NEAR 10
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF WAVE S OF 13N.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF WAVE FROM 13N TO 16N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N78W ALONG 9N85W 10N103W
10N113W TO 1010 MB LOW NEAR 12N123W 10N130W TO SECOND 1010 MB
LOW 11N135W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 91W AND 96W AND
WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 98W AND 106W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210
NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 91W AND FROM 9N TO 12N
BETWEEN 128W AND 133W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N
TO 7N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W AND FROM 8N TO 16N BETWEEN 106W AND
117W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE 1010 MB LOW W OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
11N135W. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE EAST. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER OVER THE SW
QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN 135W AND 139W.

THE REMNANTS OF HERNAN IS A SMALL LOW LEVEL SWIRL AND IS
ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 125W/126W
BETWEEN 24N AND 29N.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE STRONG BREEZES THAT HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS PLUME COMBINED WITH NE TO E WINDS FROM
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND TOGETHER CONVERGED WITH SW FLOW
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE COLLISION OF THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW
HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INCREASE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 110W. WEAKER PULSES OF GAP WINDS
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED.

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311530
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SURROUNDING THE 1010 MB LOW NEAR
12N121W. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS
NO LONGER EVIDENT AND WAS DROPPED FROM THE 12OO UTC ANALYSIS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF
CENTER OVER SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 12N119W TO
11N121W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 118W AND 120W. ANOTHER
CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS THE
PERSISTENT LOCATION OF THE LOW ON THE S SIDE OF A SHARP UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG ROUGHLY 120W/121W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IS INCREASING IN THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES W-NW NEAR
10 KT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND THE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HIGH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N103W TO 18N104W MOVING W NEAR 10
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF WAVE S OF 13N.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF WAVE FROM 13N TO 16N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N78W ALONG 9N85W 10N103W
10N113W TO 1010 MB LOW NEAR 12N123W 10N130W TO SECOND 1010 MB
LOW 11N135W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 91W AND 96W AND
WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 98W AND 106W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210
NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 91W AND FROM 9N TO 12N
BETWEEN 128W AND 133W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N
TO 7N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W AND FROM 8N TO 16N BETWEEN 106W AND
117W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE 1010 MB LOW W OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
11N135W. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE EAST. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER OVER THE SW
QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN 135W AND 139W.

THE REMNANTS OF HERNAN IS A SMALL LOW LEVEL SWIRL AND IS
ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 125W/126W
BETWEEN 24N AND 29N.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE STRONG BREEZES THAT HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS PLUME COMBINED WITH NE TO E WINDS FROM
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND TOGETHER CONVERGED WITH SW FLOW
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE COLLISION OF THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW
HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INCREASE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 110W. WEAKER PULSES OF GAP WINDS
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED.

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311530
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SURROUNDING THE 1010 MB LOW NEAR
12N121W. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS
NO LONGER EVIDENT AND WAS DROPPED FROM THE 12OO UTC ANALYSIS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF
CENTER OVER SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 12N119W TO
11N121W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 118W AND 120W. ANOTHER
CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS THE
PERSISTENT LOCATION OF THE LOW ON THE S SIDE OF A SHARP UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG ROUGHLY 120W/121W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IS INCREASING IN THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES W-NW NEAR
10 KT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND THE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HIGH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N103W TO 18N104W MOVING W NEAR 10
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF WAVE S OF 13N.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF WAVE FROM 13N TO 16N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N78W ALONG 9N85W 10N103W
10N113W TO 1010 MB LOW NEAR 12N123W 10N130W TO SECOND 1010 MB
LOW 11N135W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 91W AND 96W AND
WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 98W AND 106W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210
NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 91W AND FROM 9N TO 12N
BETWEEN 128W AND 133W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N
TO 7N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W AND FROM 8N TO 16N BETWEEN 106W AND
117W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE 1010 MB LOW W OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
11N135W. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE EAST. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER OVER THE SW
QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN 135W AND 139W.

THE REMNANTS OF HERNAN IS A SMALL LOW LEVEL SWIRL AND IS
ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 125W/126W
BETWEEN 24N AND 29N.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE STRONG BREEZES THAT HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS PLUME COMBINED WITH NE TO E WINDS FROM
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND TOGETHER CONVERGED WITH SW FLOW
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE COLLISION OF THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW
HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INCREASE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 110W. WEAKER PULSES OF GAP WINDS
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED.

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311530
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SURROUNDING THE 1010 MB LOW NEAR
12N121W. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS
NO LONGER EVIDENT AND WAS DROPPED FROM THE 12OO UTC ANALYSIS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF
CENTER OVER SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 12N119W TO
11N121W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 118W AND 120W. ANOTHER
CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS THE
PERSISTENT LOCATION OF THE LOW ON THE S SIDE OF A SHARP UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG ROUGHLY 120W/121W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IS INCREASING IN THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES W-NW NEAR
10 KT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND THE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HIGH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N103W TO 18N104W MOVING W NEAR 10
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF WAVE S OF 13N.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF WAVE FROM 13N TO 16N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N78W ALONG 9N85W 10N103W
10N113W TO 1010 MB LOW NEAR 12N123W 10N130W TO SECOND 1010 MB
LOW 11N135W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 91W AND 96W AND
WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 98W AND 106W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210
NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 91W AND FROM 9N TO 12N
BETWEEN 128W AND 133W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N
TO 7N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W AND FROM 8N TO 16N BETWEEN 106W AND
117W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE 1010 MB LOW W OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
11N135W. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE EAST. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER OVER THE SW
QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN 135W AND 139W.

THE REMNANTS OF HERNAN IS A SMALL LOW LEVEL SWIRL AND IS
ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 125W/126W
BETWEEN 24N AND 29N.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE STRONG BREEZES THAT HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS PLUME COMBINED WITH NE TO E WINDS FROM
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND TOGETHER CONVERGED WITH SW FLOW
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE COLLISION OF THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW
HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INCREASE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 110W. WEAKER PULSES OF GAP WINDS
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED.

$$
PAW



000
WTPA32 PHFO 311445
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
500 AM HST THU JUL 31 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD FAR TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 150.5W
ABOUT 550 MI...880 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1290 MI...2080 KM E OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GENEVIEVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 150.5
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...
9 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER JACOBSON/HOUSTON







000
WTPA32 PHFO 311445
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
500 AM HST THU JUL 31 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD FAR TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 150.5W
ABOUT 550 MI...880 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1290 MI...2080 KM E OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GENEVIEVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 150.5
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...
9 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER JACOBSON/HOUSTON






000
WTPA22 PHFO 311440
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
1500 UTC THU JUL 31 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 150.5W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 150.5W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 150.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.1N 151.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.0N 152.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.8N 154.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.7N 156.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 12.5N 161.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 12.5N 166.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 13.0N 171.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 150.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER JACOBSON/HOUSTON








000
WTPA22 PHFO 311440
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
1500 UTC THU JUL 31 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 150.5W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 150.5W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 150.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.1N 151.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.0N 152.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.8N 154.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.7N 156.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 12.5N 161.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 12.5N 166.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 13.0N 171.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 150.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER JACOBSON/HOUSTON







000
ACPN50 PHFO 311200
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST THU JUL 31 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 550
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GENEVIEVE IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 7 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU BY 5 AM HST THIS
MORNING.

2. A DISORGANIZED AND ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THE
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT MAY PERMIT THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE WEST.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1550 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, AND ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR WHILE IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.


$$

REYNES






000
ACPN50 PHFO 311200
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST THU JUL 31 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 550
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GENEVIEVE IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 7 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU BY 5 AM HST THIS
MORNING.

2. A DISORGANIZED AND ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THE
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT MAY PERMIT THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE WEST.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1550 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, AND ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR WHILE IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.


$$

REYNES





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 311149
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT JUEVES 31 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION BIEN DEFINIDO LOCALIZADO A 650 MILLAS AL
ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO SUR HA ESTADO PRODUCIENDO ACTIVIDAD
ORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS. DE
PERSISTIR ESTA ACTIVIDAD...SE INICIARIAN ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE UNA
DEPRESION TROPICAL O UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL MAS TARDE DURANTE ESTA
MANANA. LOS INTERESADOS EN LAS ANTILLAS MENORES DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS
AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVA HACIA EL OESTE
NOROESTE DE 15 A 20 MPH...Y VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS PUDIERAN SER
REQUERIDOS PARA ALGUNAS DE LAS ISLAS MAS TARDE DURANTE EL DIA DE
HOY. UN AVION CAZAHURACANES ESTA PAUTADO A INVESTIGAR ESTE SISTEMA
DURANTE ESTA TARDE.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 48 HORAS...ALTA...70 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 311149
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT JUEVES 31 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION BIEN DEFINIDO LOCALIZADO A 650 MILLAS AL
ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO SUR HA ESTADO PRODUCIENDO ACTIVIDAD
ORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS. DE
PERSISTIR ESTA ACTIVIDAD...SE INICIARIAN ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE UNA
DEPRESION TROPICAL O UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL MAS TARDE DURANTE ESTA
MANANA. LOS INTERESADOS EN LAS ANTILLAS MENORES DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS
AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVA HACIA EL OESTE
NOROESTE DE 15 A 20 MPH...Y VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS PUDIERAN SER
REQUERIDOS PARA ALGUNAS DE LAS ISLAS MAS TARDE DURANTE EL DIA DE
HOY. UN AVION CAZAHURACANES ESTA PAUTADO A INVESTIGAR ESTE SISTEMA
DURANTE ESTA TARDE.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 48 HORAS...ALTA...70 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311134
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase near an area of low
pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
forecast to form during the next day or two while the system moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

An area of low pressure located about 1550 miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized cloudiness and
showers.  Upper-level winds are only marginally favorable, and any
development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves
westward at about 10 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form well southwest of the
southern coast of Mexico this weekend.  Some gradual development of
this system is possible after that time while it moves westward at
about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311134
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase near an area of low
pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
forecast to form during the next day or two while the system moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

An area of low pressure located about 1550 miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized cloudiness and
showers.  Upper-level winds are only marginally favorable, and any
development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves
westward at about 10 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form well southwest of the
southern coast of Mexico this weekend.  Some gradual development of
this system is possible after that time while it moves westward at
about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
ABNT20 KNHC 311131
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A well-defined low pressure system located about 650 miles east of
the southern Windward Islands has been producing organized shower
and thunderstorm activity during the past several hours.  If this
activity persists, tropical depression or tropical storm advisories
will be initiated later this morning.   Interests in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of this disturbance as it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and watches or warnings may be
required for some of these islands later today.  A Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this
afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABNT20 KNHC 311131
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A well-defined low pressure system located about 650 miles east of
the southern Windward Islands has been producing organized shower
and thunderstorm activity during the past several hours.  If this
activity persists, tropical depression or tropical storm advisories
will be initiated later this morning.   Interests in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of this disturbance as it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and watches or warnings may be
required for some of these islands later today.  A Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this
afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
AXNT20 KNHC 311043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N49W MOVING W-NW AT 15 KT. THE
LOW CONTINUES TO SHOW A MARGINALLY IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF
THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE. IN
ADDITION...EARLIER EVENING ASCAT PASSES AROUND 31/0022 UTC AND
31/0110 UTC INDICATED A 20 TO 30 KT WIND FIELD SURROUNDING THE
LOW WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N30W TO 16N31W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
A BROAD LOW-LEVEL...850 MB-700 MB...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AND ACROSS AN AREA FOCUSED
NEAR A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 09N30N. THE BROAD AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVE
VORTICITY IS NOTED FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 28W-33W. CONVECTION
REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERING MUCH OF
THE TROPICAL ATLC...HOWEVER WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 30W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N56W TO 20N58W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE W-NW OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES 1010 MB
SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N49W. A PORTION OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE HAS FRACTURED TO THE NORTH...LARGELY STRETCHING OF
THE 700 MB TROUGHING...AND IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
21N58W TO 25N56W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL DATA
INDICATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
700 MB TROUGH THAT COINCIDES WITH THE WAVE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N17W TO
13N20W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 09N31W TO 05N40W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-13N BETWEEN 12W-
20W...AND FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 31W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THAT SUPPORTS A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SPINE OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF WATERS NEAR FORT MYERS.
THE FRONT CONTINUES SW TO 24N86W THEN NW TO 25N90W WHERE IT
BEGINS DISSIPATING TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N95W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT AND N OF 24N BETWEEN 81W-83W. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE
IS ANCHORED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 22N ACROSS CUBA TO THE EAST MEXICO COAST.
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...THE OTHER SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED
BY A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI NEAR
31N90W. LOOKING AHEAD...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...WEAK RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH
FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE NOTED OVER MUCH
OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING FOCUSED ON AN ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N81W AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 11N66W. GIVEN MARGINAL LIFTING
DYNAMICS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
REMAIN FAIR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. FARTHER
EAST...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
PROVIDING AN OVERALL SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES E OF 66W WITH THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY ALONG 58W. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER CONVECTION
OCCURRING IS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE COASTS OF
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 11N BETWEEN 77W-83W DUE TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 08N/09N. FINALLY...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PERSIST WITH THE STRONGEST AREA OF
WINDS EXPECTED S OF 14N BETWEEN 68W-77W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...THE ISLAND REMAINS NEAR THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 25N65W. WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FORECAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS REMAINING
LARGELY N OF 31N THAT SUPPORTS A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO 30N77W THEN NE TO BEYOND 32N74W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NW OF A LINE FROM 24N79W TO 32N72W TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 25N65W WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY FOCUSED NEARLY IN THE SAME
LOCATION THAT SUPPORTS AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 18N-28N BETWEEN 61W-70W. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N57W.
ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE HOWEVER...A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF 29N43W. AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES E-SE...IT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 44W-51W. THIS
ACTIVITY REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM A
1016 MB LOW NEAR 34N32W SW TO ANOTHER 1016 MB LOW NEAR 30N42W
WESTWARD TO 29N53W. OTHERWISE...THIS BROADER AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE IS ANALYZED E OF 50W WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY FAIR.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 311043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N49W MOVING W-NW AT 15 KT. THE
LOW CONTINUES TO SHOW A MARGINALLY IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF
THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE. IN
ADDITION...EARLIER EVENING ASCAT PASSES AROUND 31/0022 UTC AND
31/0110 UTC INDICATED A 20 TO 30 KT WIND FIELD SURROUNDING THE
LOW WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N30W TO 16N31W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
A BROAD LOW-LEVEL...850 MB-700 MB...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AND ACROSS AN AREA FOCUSED
NEAR A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 09N30N. THE BROAD AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVE
VORTICITY IS NOTED FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 28W-33W. CONVECTION
REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERING MUCH OF
THE TROPICAL ATLC...HOWEVER WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 30W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N56W TO 20N58W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE W-NW OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES 1010 MB
SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N49W. A PORTION OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE HAS FRACTURED TO THE NORTH...LARGELY STRETCHING OF
THE 700 MB TROUGHING...AND IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
21N58W TO 25N56W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL DATA
INDICATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
700 MB TROUGH THAT COINCIDES WITH THE WAVE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N17W TO
13N20W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 09N31W TO 05N40W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-13N BETWEEN 12W-
20W...AND FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 31W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THAT SUPPORTS A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SPINE OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF WATERS NEAR FORT MYERS.
THE FRONT CONTINUES SW TO 24N86W THEN NW TO 25N90W WHERE IT
BEGINS DISSIPATING TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N95W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT AND N OF 24N BETWEEN 81W-83W. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE
IS ANCHORED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 22N ACROSS CUBA TO THE EAST MEXICO COAST.
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...THE OTHER SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED
BY A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI NEAR
31N90W. LOOKING AHEAD...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...WEAK RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH
FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE NOTED OVER MUCH
OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING FOCUSED ON AN ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N81W AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 11N66W. GIVEN MARGINAL LIFTING
DYNAMICS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
REMAIN FAIR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. FARTHER
EAST...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
PROVIDING AN OVERALL SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES E OF 66W WITH THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY ALONG 58W. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER CONVECTION
OCCURRING IS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE COASTS OF
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 11N BETWEEN 77W-83W DUE TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 08N/09N. FINALLY...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PERSIST WITH THE STRONGEST AREA OF
WINDS EXPECTED S OF 14N BETWEEN 68W-77W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...THE ISLAND REMAINS NEAR THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 25N65W. WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FORECAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS REMAINING
LARGELY N OF 31N THAT SUPPORTS A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO 30N77W THEN NE TO BEYOND 32N74W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NW OF A LINE FROM 24N79W TO 32N72W TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 25N65W WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY FOCUSED NEARLY IN THE SAME
LOCATION THAT SUPPORTS AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 18N-28N BETWEEN 61W-70W. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N57W.
ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE HOWEVER...A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF 29N43W. AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES E-SE...IT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 44W-51W. THIS
ACTIVITY REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM A
1016 MB LOW NEAR 34N32W SW TO ANOTHER 1016 MB LOW NEAR 30N42W
WESTWARD TO 29N53W. OTHERWISE...THIS BROADER AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE IS ANALYZED E OF 50W WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY FAIR.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 311043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N49W MOVING W-NW AT 15 KT. THE
LOW CONTINUES TO SHOW A MARGINALLY IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF
THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE. IN
ADDITION...EARLIER EVENING ASCAT PASSES AROUND 31/0022 UTC AND
31/0110 UTC INDICATED A 20 TO 30 KT WIND FIELD SURROUNDING THE
LOW WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N30W TO 16N31W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
A BROAD LOW-LEVEL...850 MB-700 MB...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AND ACROSS AN AREA FOCUSED
NEAR A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 09N30N. THE BROAD AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVE
VORTICITY IS NOTED FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 28W-33W. CONVECTION
REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERING MUCH OF
THE TROPICAL ATLC...HOWEVER WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 30W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N56W TO 20N58W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE W-NW OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES 1010 MB
SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N49W. A PORTION OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE HAS FRACTURED TO THE NORTH...LARGELY STRETCHING OF
THE 700 MB TROUGHING...AND IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
21N58W TO 25N56W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL DATA
INDICATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
700 MB TROUGH THAT COINCIDES WITH THE WAVE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N17W TO
13N20W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 09N31W TO 05N40W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-13N BETWEEN 12W-
20W...AND FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 31W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THAT SUPPORTS A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SPINE OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF WATERS NEAR FORT MYERS.
THE FRONT CONTINUES SW TO 24N86W THEN NW TO 25N90W WHERE IT
BEGINS DISSIPATING TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N95W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT AND N OF 24N BETWEEN 81W-83W. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE
IS ANCHORED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 22N ACROSS CUBA TO THE EAST MEXICO COAST.
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...THE OTHER SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED
BY A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI NEAR
31N90W. LOOKING AHEAD...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...WEAK RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH
FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE NOTED OVER MUCH
OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING FOCUSED ON AN ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N81W AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 11N66W. GIVEN MARGINAL LIFTING
DYNAMICS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
REMAIN FAIR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. FARTHER
EAST...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
PROVIDING AN OVERALL SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES E OF 66W WITH THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY ALONG 58W. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER CONVECTION
OCCURRING IS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE COASTS OF
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 11N BETWEEN 77W-83W DUE TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 08N/09N. FINALLY...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PERSIST WITH THE STRONGEST AREA OF
WINDS EXPECTED S OF 14N BETWEEN 68W-77W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...THE ISLAND REMAINS NEAR THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 25N65W. WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FORECAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS REMAINING
LARGELY N OF 31N THAT SUPPORTS A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO 30N77W THEN NE TO BEYOND 32N74W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NW OF A LINE FROM 24N79W TO 32N72W TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 25N65W WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY FOCUSED NEARLY IN THE SAME
LOCATION THAT SUPPORTS AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 18N-28N BETWEEN 61W-70W. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N57W.
ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE HOWEVER...A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF 29N43W. AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES E-SE...IT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 44W-51W. THIS
ACTIVITY REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM A
1016 MB LOW NEAR 34N32W SW TO ANOTHER 1016 MB LOW NEAR 30N42W
WESTWARD TO 29N53W. OTHERWISE...THIS BROADER AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE IS ANALYZED E OF 50W WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY FAIR.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 311043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N49W MOVING W-NW AT 15 KT. THE
LOW CONTINUES TO SHOW A MARGINALLY IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF
THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE. IN
ADDITION...EARLIER EVENING ASCAT PASSES AROUND 31/0022 UTC AND
31/0110 UTC INDICATED A 20 TO 30 KT WIND FIELD SURROUNDING THE
LOW WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N30W TO 16N31W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
A BROAD LOW-LEVEL...850 MB-700 MB...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AND ACROSS AN AREA FOCUSED
NEAR A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 09N30N. THE BROAD AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVE
VORTICITY IS NOTED FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 28W-33W. CONVECTION
REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERING MUCH OF
THE TROPICAL ATLC...HOWEVER WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 30W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N56W TO 20N58W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE W-NW OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES 1010 MB
SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N49W. A PORTION OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE HAS FRACTURED TO THE NORTH...LARGELY STRETCHING OF
THE 700 MB TROUGHING...AND IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
21N58W TO 25N56W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL DATA
INDICATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
700 MB TROUGH THAT COINCIDES WITH THE WAVE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N17W TO
13N20W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 09N31W TO 05N40W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-13N BETWEEN 12W-
20W...AND FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 31W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THAT SUPPORTS A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SPINE OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF WATERS NEAR FORT MYERS.
THE FRONT CONTINUES SW TO 24N86W THEN NW TO 25N90W WHERE IT
BEGINS DISSIPATING TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N95W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT AND N OF 24N BETWEEN 81W-83W. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE
IS ANCHORED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 22N ACROSS CUBA TO THE EAST MEXICO COAST.
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...THE OTHER SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED
BY A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI NEAR
31N90W. LOOKING AHEAD...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...WEAK RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH
FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE NOTED OVER MUCH
OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING FOCUSED ON AN ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N81W AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 11N66W. GIVEN MARGINAL LIFTING
DYNAMICS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
REMAIN FAIR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. FARTHER
EAST...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
PROVIDING AN OVERALL SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES E OF 66W WITH THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY ALONG 58W. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER CONVECTION
OCCURRING IS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE COASTS OF
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 11N BETWEEN 77W-83W DUE TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 08N/09N. FINALLY...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PERSIST WITH THE STRONGEST AREA OF
WINDS EXPECTED S OF 14N BETWEEN 68W-77W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...THE ISLAND REMAINS NEAR THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 25N65W. WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FORECAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS REMAINING
LARGELY N OF 31N THAT SUPPORTS A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO 30N77W THEN NE TO BEYOND 32N74W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NW OF A LINE FROM 24N79W TO 32N72W TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 25N65W WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY FOCUSED NEARLY IN THE SAME
LOCATION THAT SUPPORTS AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 18N-28N BETWEEN 61W-70W. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N57W.
ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE HOWEVER...A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF 29N43W. AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES E-SE...IT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 44W-51W. THIS
ACTIVITY REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM A
1016 MB LOW NEAR 34N32W SW TO ANOTHER 1016 MB LOW NEAR 30N42W
WESTWARD TO 29N53W. OTHERWISE...THIS BROADER AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE IS ANALYZED E OF 50W WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY FAIR.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310921 CCA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED WITHIN 180 NM IN THE SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE OF A 1011 MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 12N122W ON THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF TROPICAL WAVE REACHING TO 18N. A CLOUD
SYSTEM CENTER HAS BEEN EVIDENT ALTHOUGH FAIRLY BROAD AND ILL
DEFINED SO FAR...BUT WILL LIKELY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IF THE
CONVECTION PERSISTS. ASCAT SATELLITE DATA FROM 06 UTC INDICATED
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONVERGING INTO THE LOW CENTER
SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION. ANOTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTOR IS THE
PERSISTENT LOCATION OF THE LOW PRES ON THE SE SIDE OF A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH ALONG ROUGHLY 122W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
INCREASING IN THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW PRES AS IT MOVES WNW AT
15 KT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
THE LOW PRES WILL DEEPEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND THE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 102W/104W FROM 09N TO
18N. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 102W AND 105W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 99W AND 102W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N84W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 12N122W 1011 MB TO 11N133W TO BEYOND 11N140W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM
N AND 210 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 105W. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF LOW NEAR
12N122W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF HERNAN IS A 1016 MB LOW NEAR
25N126W. NO CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED WITH THIS LOW FOR MORE
THAN THE PAST 24 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS WEST OVER RELATIVELY COOL
WATERS INTO STABLE AIR. ASCAT AND ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES
INDICATE WINDS AND GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS 5 FT OR LESS
NEAR THE DISSIPATING LOW CENTER.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A 03 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ALREADY EMERGING INTO THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT THE LAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS...AND WILL LIKELY DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING. THE
PREVIOUS PLUME COMBINED WITH NE TO E WINDS FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND TOGETHER CONVERGED WITH SW FLOW ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH. THE COLLISION OF THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INCREASE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 105W. ANOTHER PULSE OF GAP WINDS IS
FORECAST TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED.

$$

CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310921 CCA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED WITHIN 180 NM IN THE SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE OF A 1011 MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 12N122W ON THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF TROPICAL WAVE REACHING TO 18N. A CLOUD
SYSTEM CENTER HAS BEEN EVIDENT ALTHOUGH FAIRLY BROAD AND ILL
DEFINED SO FAR...BUT WILL LIKELY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IF THE
CONVECTION PERSISTS. ASCAT SATELLITE DATA FROM 06 UTC INDICATED
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONVERGING INTO THE LOW CENTER
SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION. ANOTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTOR IS THE
PERSISTENT LOCATION OF THE LOW PRES ON THE SE SIDE OF A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH ALONG ROUGHLY 122W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
INCREASING IN THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW PRES AS IT MOVES WNW AT
15 KT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
THE LOW PRES WILL DEEPEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND THE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 102W/104W FROM 09N TO
18N. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 102W AND 105W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 99W AND 102W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N84W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 12N122W 1011 MB TO 11N133W TO BEYOND 11N140W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM
N AND 210 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 105W. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF LOW NEAR
12N122W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF HERNAN IS A 1016 MB LOW NEAR
25N126W. NO CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED WITH THIS LOW FOR MORE
THAN THE PAST 24 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS WEST OVER RELATIVELY COOL
WATERS INTO STABLE AIR. ASCAT AND ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES
INDICATE WINDS AND GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS 5 FT OR LESS
NEAR THE DISSIPATING LOW CENTER.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A 03 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ALREADY EMERGING INTO THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT THE LAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS...AND WILL LIKELY DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING. THE
PREVIOUS PLUME COMBINED WITH NE TO E WINDS FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND TOGETHER CONVERGED WITH SW FLOW ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH. THE COLLISION OF THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INCREASE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 105W. ANOTHER PULSE OF GAP WINDS IS
FORECAST TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED.

$$

CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310919
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED WITHIN 180 NM IN THE SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE OF A 1011 MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 12N122W ON THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF TROPICAL WAVE REACHING TO 18N. A CLOUD
SYSTEM CENTER HAS BEEN EVIDENT ALTHOUGH FAIRLY BROAD AND ILL
DEFINED SO FAR...BUT WILL LIKELY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IF THE
CONVECTION PERSISTS. ASCAT SATELLITE DATA FROM 06 UTC INDICATED
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONVERGING INTO THE LOW CENTER
SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION. ANOTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTOR IS THE
PERSISTENT LOCATION OF THE LOW PRES ON THE SE SIDE OF A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH ALONG ROUGHLY 122W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
INCREASING IN THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW PRES AS IT MOVES WNW AT
15 KT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
THE LOW PRES WILL DEEPEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND THE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 102W/104W FROM 09N TO
18N. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 102W AND 105W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 99W AND 102W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N84W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 12N122W 1011 MB TO 11N133W TO BEYOND 11N140W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM N AND 210 NM S OF AXIS
BETWEEN 95W AND 105W. NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 180 NM SE SEMICIRCLE
OF LOW NEAR 12N122W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF HERNAN IS A 1016 MB LOW NEAR
25N126W. NO CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED WITH THIS LOW FOR MORE
THAN THE PAST 24 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS WEST OVER RELATIVELY COOL
WATERS INTO STABLE AIR. ASCAT AND ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES
INDICATE WINDS AND GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS 5 FT OR LESS
NEAR THE DISSIPATING LOW CENTER.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A 03 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ALREADY EMERGING INTO THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT THE LAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS...AND WILL LIKELY DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING. THE
PREVIOUS PLUME COMBINED WITH NE TO E WINDS FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND TOGETHER CONVERGED WITH SW FLOW ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH. THE COLLISION OF THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INCREASE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 105W. ANOTHER PULSE OF GAP WINDS IS
FORECAST TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED.

$$

CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310919
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED WITHIN 180 NM IN THE SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE OF A 1011 MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 12N122W ON THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF TROPICAL WAVE REACHING TO 18N. A CLOUD
SYSTEM CENTER HAS BEEN EVIDENT ALTHOUGH FAIRLY BROAD AND ILL
DEFINED SO FAR...BUT WILL LIKELY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IF THE
CONVECTION PERSISTS. ASCAT SATELLITE DATA FROM 06 UTC INDICATED
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONVERGING INTO THE LOW CENTER
SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION. ANOTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTOR IS THE
PERSISTENT LOCATION OF THE LOW PRES ON THE SE SIDE OF A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH ALONG ROUGHLY 122W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
INCREASING IN THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW PRES AS IT MOVES WNW AT
15 KT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
THE LOW PRES WILL DEEPEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND THE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 102W/104W FROM 09N TO
18N. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 102W AND 105W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 99W AND 102W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N84W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 12N122W 1011 MB TO 11N133W TO BEYOND 11N140W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM N AND 210 NM S OF AXIS
BETWEEN 95W AND 105W. NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 180 NM SE SEMICIRCLE
OF LOW NEAR 12N122W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF HERNAN IS A 1016 MB LOW NEAR
25N126W. NO CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED WITH THIS LOW FOR MORE
THAN THE PAST 24 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS WEST OVER RELATIVELY COOL
WATERS INTO STABLE AIR. ASCAT AND ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES
INDICATE WINDS AND GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS 5 FT OR LESS
NEAR THE DISSIPATING LOW CENTER.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A 03 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ALREADY EMERGING INTO THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT THE LAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS...AND WILL LIKELY DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING. THE
PREVIOUS PLUME COMBINED WITH NE TO E WINDS FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND TOGETHER CONVERGED WITH SW FLOW ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH. THE COLLISION OF THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INCREASE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 105W. ANOTHER PULSE OF GAP WINDS IS
FORECAST TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED.

$$

CHRISTENSEN


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 310916
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
800 PM CHST THU JUL 31 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...15.2N 140.7E

ABOUT 295 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 310 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 325 MILES WEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 335 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
140.7 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. TROPICAL
STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
HALONG IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW INTENSIFICATION LATER TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

CHAN





000
WTPQ31 PGUM 310916
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
800 PM CHST THU JUL 31 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...15.2N 140.7E

ABOUT 295 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 310 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 325 MILES WEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 335 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
140.7 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. TROPICAL
STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
HALONG IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW INTENSIFICATION LATER TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

CHAN





000
WTPQ31 PGUM 310916
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
800 PM CHST THU JUL 31 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...15.2N 140.7E

ABOUT 295 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 310 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 325 MILES WEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 335 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
140.7 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. TROPICAL
STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
HALONG IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW INTENSIFICATION LATER TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

CHAN





000
WTPQ31 PGUM 310916
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
800 PM CHST THU JUL 31 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...15.2N 140.7E

ABOUT 295 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 310 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 325 MILES WEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 335 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
140.7 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. TROPICAL
STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
HALONG IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW INTENSIFICATION LATER TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

CHAN





000
WTPA32 PHFO 310845
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
1100 PM HST WED JUL 30 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD FAR SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 150.1W
ABOUT 565 MI...905 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1315 MI...2120 KM E OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GENEVIEVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 150.1
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON







000
WTPA22 PHFO 310840
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
0900 UTC THU JUL 31 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 150.1W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE   0SE   0SW  35NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 150.1W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 149.8W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.1N 151.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.1N 152.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.1N 153.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.1N 155.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.0N 159.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 13.5N 164.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 13.5N 169.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 150.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON







000
WTPA22 PHFO 310840
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
0900 UTC THU JUL 31 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 150.1W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE   0SE   0SW  35NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 150.1W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 149.8W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.1N 151.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.1N 152.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.1N 153.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.1N 155.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.0N 159.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 13.5N 164.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 13.5N 169.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 150.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON








000
ACPN50 PHFO 310557
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST WED JUL 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 570
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GENEVIEVE IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 7 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU BY 11 PM HST THIS
EVENING.

2. A DISORGANIZED AND ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT 780 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THE
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT MAY PERMIT THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE WEST.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS.  ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.


$$

REYNES





000
ACPN50 PHFO 310557
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST WED JUL 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 570
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GENEVIEVE IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 7 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU BY 11 PM HST THIS
EVENING.

2. A DISORGANIZED AND ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT 780 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THE
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT MAY PERMIT THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE WEST.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS.  ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.


$$

REYNES






000
AXNT20 KNHC 310553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N48W MOVING W-NW AT 15 KT. THE
LOW LIES WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND CONTINUES TO SHOW A
MARGINALLY IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION. DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS HOWEVER...A ONCE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
HAS SEEN A BURST OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FORM WITHIN 45
NM OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. IN ADDITION...EARLIER EVENING
ASCAT PASSES AROUND 31/0022 UTC AND 31/0110 UTC INDICATE A 20 TO
30 KT WIND FIELD SURROUNDING THE LOW WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/
WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N30W TO 17N30W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A
BROAD LOW-LEVEL...850 MB-700 MB...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AND ACROSS AN AREA FOCUSED NEAR A
1011 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 10N30N. THE BROAD AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY IS
NOTED FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 28W-33W. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED
DUE TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERING MUCH OF THE TROPICAL
ATLC...HOWEVER ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-12N
BETWEEN 29W-33W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N54W TO 18N56W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE W-NW OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES 1010 MB
SURFACE LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N48W.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATE THE WAVE IS
WITHIN A 700 MB TROUGH THAT COINCIDES WITH THE WAVE AXIS. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO
A 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N30W TO 05N37W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES
NEAR 11N48W TO 06N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-
13N BETWEEN 09W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-
09N BETWEEN 31W-37W...AND FROM 08N-10N BETWEEN 49W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THAT AS OF 31/0300 UTC SUPPORTS A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA WITH A COLD FRONT ANALYZED SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE SPINE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF WATERS NEAR
FORT MYERS. THE FRONT CONTINUES SW TO 25N86W THEN NW TO 26N91W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N95W.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF 27N AND WITHIN 45 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS.
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 21N ACROSS
CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE EAST MEXICO COAST. TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT...THE OTHER SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A
1019 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY NEAR 36N88W. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND BECOME DIFFUSE
THROUGH THAT TIME. MEANWHILE...WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE NOTED OVER MUCH
OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING FOCUSED ON AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 17N82W AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED NEAR 11N66W. GIVEN MARGINAL LIFTING DYNAMICS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
CUBA...AND FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 83W-86W. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN REMAIN FAIR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. FARTHER EAST...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PROVIDING AN OVERALL SUBSIDENT
ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES E OF 65W WITH
THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 55W.
OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER CONVECTION OCCURRING IS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF
11N BETWEEN 80W-85W DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH ALONG 08N/09N. FINALLY...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PERSIST
WITH THE STRONGEST AREA OF WINDS EXPECTED S OF 14N BETWEEN 68W-
77W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...THE ISLAND REMAINS NEAR THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 25N66W. A FEW LINGERING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING W OF 71W...AND THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FORECAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS REMAINING
LARGELY N OF 32N THAT AS OF 31/0300 UTC SUPPORTS A 1015 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N77W THEN NE TO BEYOND
32N74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND N OF 24N W OF 78W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
COAST. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N66W
WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY FOCUSED NEARLY IN THE SAME LOCATION THAT
SUPPORTS AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
FROM 18N-27N BETWEEN 61W-70W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N57W. ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS RIDGE HOWEVER...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOCATED IN THE
VICINITY OF 28N46W. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES E-SE...IT CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN 43W-
51W. OTHERWISE...A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE IS ANALYZED E OF
40W WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY FAIR FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 310553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N48W MOVING W-NW AT 15 KT. THE
LOW LIES WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND CONTINUES TO SHOW A
MARGINALLY IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION. DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS HOWEVER...A ONCE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
HAS SEEN A BURST OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FORM WITHIN 45
NM OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. IN ADDITION...EARLIER EVENING
ASCAT PASSES AROUND 31/0022 UTC AND 31/0110 UTC INDICATE A 20 TO
30 KT WIND FIELD SURROUNDING THE LOW WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/
WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N30W TO 17N30W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A
BROAD LOW-LEVEL...850 MB-700 MB...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AND ACROSS AN AREA FOCUSED NEAR A
1011 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 10N30N. THE BROAD AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY IS
NOTED FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 28W-33W. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED
DUE TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERING MUCH OF THE TROPICAL
ATLC...HOWEVER ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-12N
BETWEEN 29W-33W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N54W TO 18N56W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE W-NW OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES 1010 MB
SURFACE LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N48W.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATE THE WAVE IS
WITHIN A 700 MB TROUGH THAT COINCIDES WITH THE WAVE AXIS. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO
A 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N30W TO 05N37W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES
NEAR 11N48W TO 06N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-
13N BETWEEN 09W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-
09N BETWEEN 31W-37W...AND FROM 08N-10N BETWEEN 49W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THAT AS OF 31/0300 UTC SUPPORTS A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA WITH A COLD FRONT ANALYZED SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE SPINE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF WATERS NEAR
FORT MYERS. THE FRONT CONTINUES SW TO 25N86W THEN NW TO 26N91W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N95W.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF 27N AND WITHIN 45 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS.
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 21N ACROSS
CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE EAST MEXICO COAST. TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT...THE OTHER SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A
1019 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY NEAR 36N88W. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND BECOME DIFFUSE
THROUGH THAT TIME. MEANWHILE...WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE NOTED OVER MUCH
OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING FOCUSED ON AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 17N82W AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED NEAR 11N66W. GIVEN MARGINAL LIFTING DYNAMICS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
CUBA...AND FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 83W-86W. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN REMAIN FAIR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. FARTHER EAST...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PROVIDING AN OVERALL SUBSIDENT
ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES E OF 65W WITH
THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 55W.
OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER CONVECTION OCCURRING IS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF
11N BETWEEN 80W-85W DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH ALONG 08N/09N. FINALLY...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PERSIST
WITH THE STRONGEST AREA OF WINDS EXPECTED S OF 14N BETWEEN 68W-
77W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...THE ISLAND REMAINS NEAR THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 25N66W. A FEW LINGERING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING W OF 71W...AND THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FORECAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS REMAINING
LARGELY N OF 32N THAT AS OF 31/0300 UTC SUPPORTS A 1015 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N77W THEN NE TO BEYOND
32N74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND N OF 24N W OF 78W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
COAST. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N66W
WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY FOCUSED NEARLY IN THE SAME LOCATION THAT
SUPPORTS AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
FROM 18N-27N BETWEEN 61W-70W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N57W. ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS RIDGE HOWEVER...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOCATED IN THE
VICINITY OF 28N46W. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES E-SE...IT CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN 43W-
51W. OTHERWISE...A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE IS ANALYZED E OF
40W WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY FAIR FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 310537
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT JUEVES 31 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

DATOS DE SATELITE INDICAN QUE LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS HA AUMENTADO
LEVEMENTE EN ASOCIACION CON UN SISTEMA BIEN DEFINIDO DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADO A 850 MILLAS APROXIMADAMENTE AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE
SOTAVENTO SUR. ADEMAS...ESTAN OCURRIENDO VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SOBRE UN AREA PEQUENA JUSTO AL NORTE DEL CENTRO.
AUNQUE LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES ESTAN MARGINALMENTE CONDUCENTES
PARA DESARROLLO...CUALQUIER AUMENTO ADICIONAL EN ORGANIZACION
PUDIERA DAR LUGAR A LA FORMACION DE UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL O
TORMENTA TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. LOS INTERESADOS EN LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA A
MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVA HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A 15 MPH APROXIMADAMENTE.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 48 HORAS...ALTA...60 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 5 DIAS...ALTA...60 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR CANGIALOSI





000
ABNT20 KNHC 310531
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite data indicate that shower activity has increased a little
in association with a well-defined low pressure system located about
850 miles east of the southern Windward Islands.  In addition, winds
to near tropical storm force are occurring over a small area just
north of the center.  While environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive for development, any additional increase in
organization could lead to the formation of a tropical depression
or tropical storm during the next day or so.  Interests in the
Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system as it
moves west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
ABNT20 KNHC 310531
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite data indicate that shower activity has increased a little
in association with a well-defined low pressure system located about
850 miles east of the southern Windward Islands.  In addition, winds
to near tropical storm force are occurring over a small area just
north of the center.  While environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive for development, any additional increase in
organization could lead to the formation of a tropical depression
or tropical storm during the next day or so.  Interests in the
Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system as it
moves west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 310529
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased a little in association
with a broad area of low pressure located about 1100 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  Environmental
conditions appear favorable for development of this system during
the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

An area of low pressure located about 1600 miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized cloudiness and
showers.  Any development of this system should be slow to occur
during the next few days while it moves westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form well southwest of the
southern coast of Mexico this weekend.  Some gradual development of
this system is possible after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 310529
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased a little in association
with a broad area of low pressure located about 1100 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  Environmental
conditions appear favorable for development of this system during
the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

An area of low pressure located about 1600 miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized cloudiness and
showers.  Any development of this system should be slow to occur
during the next few days while it moves westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form well southwest of the
southern coast of Mexico this weekend.  Some gradual development of
this system is possible after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 310529
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased a little in association
with a broad area of low pressure located about 1100 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  Environmental
conditions appear favorable for development of this system during
the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

An area of low pressure located about 1600 miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized cloudiness and
showers.  Any development of this system should be slow to occur
during the next few days while it moves westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form well southwest of the
southern coast of Mexico this weekend.  Some gradual development of
this system is possible after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 310529
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased a little in association
with a broad area of low pressure located about 1100 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  Environmental
conditions appear favorable for development of this system during
the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

An area of low pressure located about 1600 miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized cloudiness and
showers.  Any development of this system should be slow to occur
during the next few days while it moves westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form well southwest of the
southern coast of Mexico this weekend.  Some gradual development of
this system is possible after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 310319
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
200 PM CHST THU JUL 31 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...15.0N 141.6E

ABOUT 235 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 265 MILES WEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 275 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
141.6 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. TROPICAL
STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
HALONG IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW INTENSIFICATION TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED THIS EVENING BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 800 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT





000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310257
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 18N123W TO 14N123W TO 11N121W. NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 119W AND 122W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 122W AND 124W. A 1010 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
PATTERN THAT IS AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER
ARE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT A GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W/104W FROM 09N TO 18N. NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 102W AND 105W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO
15N BETWEEN 99W AND 102W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CONVECTION VALID 0230 UTC WED JUL 30...

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 18N123W TO 14N123W TO 11N121W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 119W AND
122W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN
122W AND 124W.

1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N133W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 133W AND 135W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N78W TO 09N87W TO 09N103W TO 1010 MB LOW
PRES NEAR 11N121W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N133W...TO 13N140W.
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W...FROM 06N
TO 09N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN 105W AND 118W...AND FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 130W AND
138W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN
89W AND 100W...FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 117W...FROM 06N
TO 09N BETWEEN 120W AND 127W...AND FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 131W
AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF HERNAN IS A 1014 MB LOW NEAR
25N125W. THE SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY ON THE DVORAK SCALE.
LOW CLOUDS ARE SWIRLING AROUND THE CENTER.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 21N112W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
CENTER COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN
100W AND 120W.

THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT WAS NEAR 15N140W FOR THE
30/1605 UTC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NOW IS OUTSIDE THE AREA
JUST TO THE WEST OF 140W.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOTS AROUND SUNRISE ON THURSDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL HAVE
SLOWED DOWN AGAIN BY SUNSET ON THURSDAY...AND THEY WILL RETURN
TO 20 KNOTS OR SO BY FRIDAY MORNING AROUND SUNRISE.

$$ MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310257
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 18N123W TO 14N123W TO 11N121W. NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 119W AND 122W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 122W AND 124W. A 1010 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
PATTERN THAT IS AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER
ARE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT A GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W/104W FROM 09N TO 18N. NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 102W AND 105W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO
15N BETWEEN 99W AND 102W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CONVECTION VALID 0230 UTC WED JUL 30...

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 18N123W TO 14N123W TO 11N121W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 119W AND
122W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN
122W AND 124W.

1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N133W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 133W AND 135W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N78W TO 09N87W TO 09N103W TO 1010 MB LOW
PRES NEAR 11N121W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N133W...TO 13N140W.
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W...FROM 06N
TO 09N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN 105W AND 118W...AND FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 130W AND
138W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN
89W AND 100W...FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 117W...FROM 06N
TO 09N BETWEEN 120W AND 127W...AND FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 131W
AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF HERNAN IS A 1014 MB LOW NEAR
25N125W. THE SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY ON THE DVORAK SCALE.
LOW CLOUDS ARE SWIRLING AROUND THE CENTER.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 21N112W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
CENTER COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN
100W AND 120W.

THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT WAS NEAR 15N140W FOR THE
30/1605 UTC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NOW IS OUTSIDE THE AREA
JUST TO THE WEST OF 140W.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOTS AROUND SUNRISE ON THURSDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL HAVE
SLOWED DOWN AGAIN BY SUNSET ON THURSDAY...AND THEY WILL RETURN
TO 20 KNOTS OR SO BY FRIDAY MORNING AROUND SUNRISE.

$$ MT



000
WTPA32 PHFO 310237
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
500 PM HST WED JUL 30 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD FAR
SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY..


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 150.4W
ABOUT 555 MI...890 KM SE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 765 MI...1235 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GENEVIEVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 150.4
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BURKE







000
WTPA32 PHFO 310237
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
500 PM HST WED JUL 30 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD FAR
SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY..


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 150.4W
ABOUT 555 MI...890 KM SE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 765 MI...1235 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GENEVIEVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 150.4
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BURKE







000
WTPA32 PHFO 310237
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
500 PM HST WED JUL 30 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD FAR
SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY..


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 150.4W
ABOUT 555 MI...890 KM SE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 765 MI...1235 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GENEVIEVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 150.4
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BURKE







000
WTPA32 PHFO 310237
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
500 PM HST WED JUL 30 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD FAR
SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY..


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 150.4W
ABOUT 555 MI...890 KM SE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 765 MI...1235 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GENEVIEVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 150.4
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BURKE







000
WTPA22 PHFO 310237
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
0300 UTC THU JUL 31 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 150.4W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 150.4W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 150.1W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 12.8N 151.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.8N 152.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.8N 153.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.8N 154.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.9N 157.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 13.0N 160.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 13.2N 164.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 150.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BURKE







000
AXNT20 KNHC 310007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED ON THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N46W
MOVING W AT 15 KT. A DEEP LAYER MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTING
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8-11N BETWEEN 46W-50W.
A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS N AND W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW WITHIN 48
HOURS. SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE WAVE EXTENDS
FROM 19N29W TO 9N29W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS LOCATED
ON THE BASE OF THE WAVE AXIS AT 9N29W. A MOIST AREA IS NOTED ON
THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A DRY SAHARAN
AIR LAYER IS N AND W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 29W-33W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N55W TO 10N52W AND MOVING W AT 15-
20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE W-NW OF THE 1011 MB SURFACE LOW
DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. A MOIST AREA IS NOTED
ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A DRY
SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS N OF 18N AND W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 52W-56W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AT 12N16W
TO 9N29W TO 5N37W TO 10N46W TO 7N52W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 7N52W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA AT 6N55W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES AND SPECIAL FEATURE LOW...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 14W-16W...AND FROM 5N-
8N BETWEEN 33W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM COCOA
BEACH FLORIDA TO TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT
26N90W TO HOUSTON TEXAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
CENTRAL AND S FLORIDA S OF 28N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 92W. AIR MASS ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER W CUBA...AND N YUCATAN PENINSULA.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABOVE THE STATIONARY
FRONT WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE AND A 1017 MB HIGH TO FORM
SE OF LOUISIANA. ALSO EXPECT AN AREA OF CONVECTION TO PERSIST
OVER THE SE GULF DUE TO REMNANTS OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. AIR MASS SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...E NICARAGUA...AND
E HONDURAS. MORE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA
AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 17N82W. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED N OF VENEZUELA NEAR 12N65W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT
AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA...
HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 70W-74W. MORE AIR MASS AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N76W
TO COCOA BEACH FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE W
ATLANTIC AND N BAHAMAS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 74W-80W. A 1029 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N56W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N23W TO 25N33W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. OF NOTE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN
62W-70W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N31N
PRODUCING SHEAR ABOVE ONE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 310007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED ON THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N46W
MOVING W AT 15 KT. A DEEP LAYER MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTING
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8-11N BETWEEN 46W-50W.
A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS N AND W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW WITHIN 48
HOURS. SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE WAVE EXTENDS
FROM 19N29W TO 9N29W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS LOCATED
ON THE BASE OF THE WAVE AXIS AT 9N29W. A MOIST AREA IS NOTED ON
THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A DRY SAHARAN
AIR LAYER IS N AND W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 29W-33W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N55W TO 10N52W AND MOVING W AT 15-
20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE W-NW OF THE 1011 MB SURFACE LOW
DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. A MOIST AREA IS NOTED
ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A DRY
SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS N OF 18N AND W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 52W-56W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AT 12N16W
TO 9N29W TO 5N37W TO 10N46W TO 7N52W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 7N52W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA AT 6N55W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES AND SPECIAL FEATURE LOW...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 14W-16W...AND FROM 5N-
8N BETWEEN 33W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM COCOA
BEACH FLORIDA TO TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT
26N90W TO HOUSTON TEXAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
CENTRAL AND S FLORIDA S OF 28N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 92W. AIR MASS ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER W CUBA...AND N YUCATAN PENINSULA.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABOVE THE STATIONARY
FRONT WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE AND A 1017 MB HIGH TO FORM
SE OF LOUISIANA. ALSO EXPECT AN AREA OF CONVECTION TO PERSIST
OVER THE SE GULF DUE TO REMNANTS OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. AIR MASS SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...E NICARAGUA...AND
E HONDURAS. MORE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA
AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 17N82W. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED N OF VENEZUELA NEAR 12N65W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT
AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA...
HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 70W-74W. MORE AIR MASS AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N76W
TO COCOA BEACH FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE W
ATLANTIC AND N BAHAMAS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 74W-80W. A 1029 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N56W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N23W TO 25N33W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. OF NOTE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN
62W-70W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N31N
PRODUCING SHEAR ABOVE ONE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
ACPN50 PHFO 302335
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST WED JUL 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 560
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GENEVIEVE IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 7 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU BY 5 PM HST THIS
AFTERNOON.

2. A DISORGANIZED AND ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT 880 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THE
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT MAY PERMIT THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE WEST.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

EVANS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 302335
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST WED JUL 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 560
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GENEVIEVE IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 7 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU BY 5 PM HST THIS
AFTERNOON.

2. A DISORGANIZED AND ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT 880 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THE
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT MAY PERMIT THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE WEST.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

EVANS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 302335
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST WED JUL 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 560
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GENEVIEVE IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 7 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU BY 5 PM HST THIS
AFTERNOON.

2. A DISORGANIZED AND ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT 880 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THE
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT MAY PERMIT THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE WEST.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

EVANS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 302335
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST WED JUL 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 560
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GENEVIEVE IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 7 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU BY 5 PM HST THIS
AFTERNOON.

2. A DISORGANIZED AND ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT 880 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THE
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT MAY PERMIT THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE WEST.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

EVANS






000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302333
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula remains disorganized.  However, environmental
conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system
during the next several days while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Disorganized cloudiness and showers are associated with an area of
low pressure located about 1700 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.  Some development of this
system is possible during the next several days before environmental
conditions become less conducive this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form well southwest of the
southern coast of Mexico in a few days.  Some gradual development of
this system is possible after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302333
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula remains disorganized.  However, environmental
conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system
during the next several days while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Disorganized cloudiness and showers are associated with an area of
low pressure located about 1700 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.  Some development of this
system is possible during the next several days before environmental
conditions become less conducive this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form well southwest of the
southern coast of Mexico in a few days.  Some gradual development of
this system is possible after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 302321
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT MIERCOLES 30 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADOS UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION BIEN
DEFINIDO LOCALIZADA CERCA DE 900 MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DEL SUR
DE BARLOVENTO HA CAMBIADO POCO DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS. SIN
EMBARGO...LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES ESTAN MARGINALMENTE
CONDUCENTES PARA EL DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA A UNA DEPRESION
TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. INTERESES EN LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA MIENTRAS SE
MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE CERCA DE 15 MPH.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...50 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...50 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 302321
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT MIERCOLES 30 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADOS UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION BIEN
DEFINIDO LOCALIZADA CERCA DE 900 MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DEL SUR
DE BARLOVENTO HA CAMBIADO POCO DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS. SIN
EMBARGO...LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES ESTAN MARGINALMENTE
CONDUCENTES PARA EL DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA A UNA DEPRESION
TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. INTERESES EN LAS ANTILLAS
MENORES DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA MIENTRAS SE
MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE CERCA DE 15 MPH.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...50 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...50 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART





000
ABNT20 KNHC 302312
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a well-defined low pressure system
located about 900 miles east of the southern Windward Islands has
changed little over the past several hours.  However, environmental
conditions are marginally conducive for the development of this
system into a tropical depression during the next couple of days.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this
system as it moves west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABNT20 KNHC 302312
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a well-defined low pressure system
located about 900 miles east of the southern Windward Islands has
changed little over the past several hours.  However, environmental
conditions are marginally conducive for the development of this
system into a tropical depression during the next couple of days.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this
system as it moves west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302144
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS AT THE SOUTHERN END OF A
TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 121W/122W...ALONG 11N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 07N TO 11N
BETWEEN 116W AND 122W. THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN THAT
IS AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED WITH TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
SUPPORT A GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 101W/102W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD WESTWARD
15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD AN
AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...THAT IS
MOVING AROUND A 21N112W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WAS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 101W
AND 105W FROM 30/1000 UTC UNTIL 30/1400 UTC. THE PATTERN OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENTUALLY BECAME STRETCHED OUT...LESS
CONCENTRATED IN ONE AREA. SCATTERED STRONG NOW COVERS THE AREA
FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 104W AND 109W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER
NEAR 07N78W...ACROSS PANAMA NEAR 08N81W TO 09N87W...TO
08N103W...TO THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE
121W/122W TROPICAL WAVE...TO A SECOND 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N132W...BEYOND 13N140W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 84W AND
87W...AND FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 105W AND 111W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 89W AND
100W...FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 117W...AND FROM 07N TO
15N BETWEEN 131W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF HERNAN IS A 1014 MB LOW NEAR
25N124W. THE SEA HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BE 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF
THE LOW CENTER...EVEN THOUGH THE WIND SPEEDS ARE LESS THAN 20
KNOTS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA THAT IS FROM 10N NORTHWARD FROM 130W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 27N124W 20N127W. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVER
THE AREA THAT IS FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 120W AND 130W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N125W 22N128W 16N136W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 21N112W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
CENTER COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN
100W AND 120W.

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
11N132W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 131W AND 140W.

THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT WAS NEAR 15N140W FOR THE
30/1605 UTC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NOW IS OUTSIDE THE AREA
JUST TO THE WEST OF 140W.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
FROM 09N TO 12N FROM 81W EASTWARD FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOW DOWN TO
LESS THAN 20 KNOTS DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
THURSDAY...THE WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL SLOW DOWN AGAIN BY SUNSET ON THURSDAY...AND RETURN
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY FRIDAY MORNING SUNRISE.

$$ MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302144
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS AT THE SOUTHERN END OF A
TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 121W/122W...ALONG 11N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 07N TO 11N
BETWEEN 116W AND 122W. THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN THAT
IS AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED WITH TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
SUPPORT A GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 101W/102W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD WESTWARD
15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD AN
AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...THAT IS
MOVING AROUND A 21N112W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WAS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 101W
AND 105W FROM 30/1000 UTC UNTIL 30/1400 UTC. THE PATTERN OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENTUALLY BECAME STRETCHED OUT...LESS
CONCENTRATED IN ONE AREA. SCATTERED STRONG NOW COVERS THE AREA
FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 104W AND 109W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER
NEAR 07N78W...ACROSS PANAMA NEAR 08N81W TO 09N87W...TO
08N103W...TO THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE
121W/122W TROPICAL WAVE...TO A SECOND 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N132W...BEYOND 13N140W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 84W AND
87W...AND FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 105W AND 111W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 89W AND
100W...FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 117W...AND FROM 07N TO
15N BETWEEN 131W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF HERNAN IS A 1014 MB LOW NEAR
25N124W. THE SEA HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BE 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF
THE LOW CENTER...EVEN THOUGH THE WIND SPEEDS ARE LESS THAN 20
KNOTS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA THAT IS FROM 10N NORTHWARD FROM 130W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 27N124W 20N127W. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVER
THE AREA THAT IS FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 120W AND 130W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N125W 22N128W 16N136W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 21N112W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
CENTER COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN
100W AND 120W.

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
11N132W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 131W AND 140W.

THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT WAS NEAR 15N140W FOR THE
30/1605 UTC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NOW IS OUTSIDE THE AREA
JUST TO THE WEST OF 140W.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
FROM 09N TO 12N FROM 81W EASTWARD FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOW DOWN TO
LESS THAN 20 KNOTS DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
THURSDAY...THE WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL SLOW DOWN AGAIN BY SUNSET ON THURSDAY...AND RETURN
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY FRIDAY MORNING SUNRISE.

$$ MT


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 302143
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
800 AM CHST THU JUL 31 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.7N 142.6E

ABOUT 170 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 180 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 210 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
142.6 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. TROPICAL
STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW INTENSIFICATION TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 200 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT/W. AYDLETT





000
WTPQ31 PGUM 302143
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
800 AM CHST THU JUL 31 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.7N 142.6E

ABOUT 170 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 180 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 210 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
142.6 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. TROPICAL
STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW INTENSIFICATION TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 200 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT/W. AYDLETT




000
WTPA32 PHFO 302036
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
1100 AM HST WED JUL 30 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD FAR
SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY..


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 150.2W
ABOUT 565 MI...905 KM SE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GENEVIEVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 150.2
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BURKE







000
WTPA32 PHFO 302036
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
1100 AM HST WED JUL 30 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD FAR
SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY..


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 150.2W
ABOUT 565 MI...905 KM SE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GENEVIEVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 150.2
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BURKE







000
WTPA32 PHFO 302036
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
1100 AM HST WED JUL 30 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD FAR
SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY..


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 150.2W
ABOUT 565 MI...905 KM SE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GENEVIEVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 150.2
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BURKE







000
WTPA32 PHFO 302036
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
1100 AM HST WED JUL 30 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD FAR
SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY..


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 150.2W
ABOUT 565 MI...905 KM SE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GENEVIEVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 150.2
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BURKE







000
WTPA22 PHFO 302035
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
2100 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 150.2W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 150.2W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 149.9W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 12.8N 151.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 12.8N 152.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.9N 153.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.0N 155.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.2N 157.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 13.4N 160.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 13.7N 163.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 150.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BURKE







000
WTPA22 PHFO 302035
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
2100 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 150.2W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 150.2W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 149.9W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 12.8N 151.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 12.8N 152.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.9N 153.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.0N 155.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.2N 157.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 13.4N 160.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 13.7N 163.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 150.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BURKE







000
WTPA22 PHFO 302035
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
2100 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 150.2W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 150.2W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 149.9W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 12.8N 151.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 12.8N 152.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.9N 153.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.0N 155.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.2N 157.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 13.4N 160.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 13.7N 163.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 150.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BURKE







000
WTPA22 PHFO 302035
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
2100 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 150.2W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 150.2W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 149.9W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 12.8N 151.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 12.8N 152.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.9N 153.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.0N 155.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.2N 157.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 13.4N 160.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 13.7N 163.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 150.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BURKE







000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301745
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT MIERCOLES 30 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADOS A UNA AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA
CERCA DE 1000 MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DEL SUR DE BARLOVENTO HAN
ESTADO DISMINUYENDO GRADUALMENTE DESDE AYER. SIN EMBARGO...LAS
CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SON MARGINALMENTE CONDUCENTES PARA EL
DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA Y PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN DEPRESION
TROPICAL MAS TARDE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. LOS INTERESES EN LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES DEBEN SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA MIENTRAS
SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE CERCA DE 15 MPH.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 48 HORAS...ALTA...50 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 5 DIAS...ALTA...50 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301745
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT MIERCOLES 30 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADOS A UNA AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA
CERCA DE 1000 MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DEL SUR DE BARLOVENTO HAN
ESTADO DISMINUYENDO GRADUALMENTE DESDE AYER. SIN EMBARGO...LAS
CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SON MARGINALMENTE CONDUCENTES PARA EL
DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA Y PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN DEPRESION
TROPICAL MAS TARDE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. LOS INTERESES EN LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES DEBEN SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA MIENTRAS
SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE CERCA DE 15 MPH.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 48 HORAS...ALTA...50 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 5 DIAS...ALTA...50 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301745
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT MIERCOLES 30 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADOS A UNA AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA
CERCA DE 1000 MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DEL SUR DE BARLOVENTO HAN
ESTADO DISMINUYENDO GRADUALMENTE DESDE AYER. SIN EMBARGO...LAS
CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SON MARGINALMENTE CONDUCENTES PARA EL
DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA Y PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN DEPRESION
TROPICAL MAS TARDE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. LOS INTERESES EN LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES DEBEN SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA MIENTRAS
SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE CERCA DE 15 MPH.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 48 HORAS...ALTA...50 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 5 DIAS...ALTA...50 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301745
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT MIERCOLES 30 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADOS A UNA AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA
CERCA DE 1000 MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DEL SUR DE BARLOVENTO HAN
ESTADO DISMINUYENDO GRADUALMENTE DESDE AYER. SIN EMBARGO...LAS
CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SON MARGINALMENTE CONDUCENTES PARA EL
DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA Y PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN DEPRESION
TROPICAL MAS TARDE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. LOS INTERESES EN LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES DEBEN SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA MIENTRAS
SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE CERCA DE 15 MPH.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 48 HORAS...ALTA...50 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 5 DIAS...ALTA...50 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH





000
ACPN50 PHFO 301743
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST WED JUL 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 560
MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GENEVIEVE IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 7 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU BY 11 AM HST THIS
MORNING.

2. A DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT
850 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT MAY
PERMIT THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE WEST NORTHWEST.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.


$$

EVANS





000
ACPN50 PHFO 301743
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST WED JUL 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 560
MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GENEVIEVE IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 7 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU BY 11 AM HST THIS
MORNING.

2. A DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT
850 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT MAY
PERMIT THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE WEST NORTHWEST.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.


$$

EVANS






000
ABNT20 KNHC 301734
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1000 miles east of the southern Windward Islands have
been gradually decreasing since yesterday.  However, environmental
conditions are marginally conducive for the development of this
system into a tropical depression during the next couple of days.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this
system as it moves west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABNT20 KNHC 301734
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1000 miles east of the southern Windward Islands have
been gradually decreasing since yesterday.  However, environmental
conditions are marginally conducive for the development of this
system into a tropical depression during the next couple of days.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this
system as it moves west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301732
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce showers and thunderstorms.  Although the
disturbance is currently disorganized, environmental conditions
should support the gradual development of this system during the
next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Disorganized cloudiness and showers are associated with an area of
low pressure located about 1600 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.  Some development of this
system is possible during the next several days before environmental
conditions become less conducive this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form well southwest of the
southern coast of Mexico in a few days.  Some gradual development of
this system is possible after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301732
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce showers and thunderstorms.  Although the
disturbance is currently disorganized, environmental conditions
should support the gradual development of this system during the
next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Disorganized cloudiness and showers are associated with an area of
low pressure located about 1600 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.  Some development of this
system is possible during the next several days before environmental
conditions become less conducive this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form well southwest of the
southern coast of Mexico in a few days.  Some gradual development of
this system is possible after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Pasch


000
AXNT20 KNHC 301728
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 09.5N45W IS MOVING W-NW 15 KT. THE
LOW LIES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER THE
SYSTEM LACKS ANY ORGANIZED SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 43W-48W.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N27W TO 10N27W AND IS MOVING W
15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE
WHICH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTION
REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERING MUCH OF
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...HOWEVER ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
LOCATED AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 30W FROM 09N-12N.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N52W TO 10N49W AND IS MOVING W 15-
20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE W-NW OF THE 1012 MB SURFACE LOW
DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. THE WAVE REMAINS
WITHIN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE
INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO
08N35W TO 09N47W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENGE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 09N47W TO 07N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
LOCATED WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N24W TO
07N35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CUTS ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST TO 26N90W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE MODERATE WINDS EITHER SIDE OF
THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA TO 27N89W AND
CONTINUES NW AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AND UP TO 90-120 NM
S OF THE FRONT. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR N OF THE FRONT. A 1018 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N92.5W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED
OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE LOCATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N
OF 15N W OF 78W. A BROAD MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
LOCATED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ALONG THE COSTA RICA
COAST. FAIR WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
MINIMAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DUE TO CONFLUENCE ALOFT COVERS THE
ISLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW TSTMS ARE FORECAST LATER
IN THE DAY MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAIN SECTIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE AREA N OF 29N W OF 72W DUE TO A
LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...ABOUT 8-9 DEGREES IN
DIAMETER...IS CENTERED NEAR 25N67W. THE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SLOWLY S OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ANOTHER MIDDLE/UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS POSITIONED NEAR 29N47W AND IS
DRIFTING S. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC S OF 20N E OF 50W INTO AFRICA. AT THE
SURFACE A 1028 MB HIGH IS LOCATED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
36N55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB



000
AXNT20 KNHC 301728
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 09.5N45W IS MOVING W-NW 15 KT. THE
LOW LIES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER THE
SYSTEM LACKS ANY ORGANIZED SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 43W-48W.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N27W TO 10N27W AND IS MOVING W
15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE
WHICH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTION
REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERING MUCH OF
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...HOWEVER ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
LOCATED AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 30W FROM 09N-12N.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N52W TO 10N49W AND IS MOVING W 15-
20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE W-NW OF THE 1012 MB SURFACE LOW
DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. THE WAVE REMAINS
WITHIN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE
INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO
08N35W TO 09N47W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENGE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 09N47W TO 07N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
LOCATED WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N24W TO
07N35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CUTS ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST TO 26N90W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE MODERATE WINDS EITHER SIDE OF
THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA TO 27N89W AND
CONTINUES NW AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AND UP TO 90-120 NM
S OF THE FRONT. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR N OF THE FRONT. A 1018 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N92.5W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED
OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE LOCATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N
OF 15N W OF 78W. A BROAD MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
LOCATED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ALONG THE COSTA RICA
COAST. FAIR WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
MINIMAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DUE TO CONFLUENCE ALOFT COVERS THE
ISLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW TSTMS ARE FORECAST LATER
IN THE DAY MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAIN SECTIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE AREA N OF 29N W OF 72W DUE TO A
LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...ABOUT 8-9 DEGREES IN
DIAMETER...IS CENTERED NEAR 25N67W. THE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SLOWLY S OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ANOTHER MIDDLE/UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS POSITIONED NEAR 29N47W AND IS
DRIFTING S. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC S OF 20N E OF 50W INTO AFRICA. AT THE
SURFACE A 1028 MB HIGH IS LOCATED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
36N55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 301539
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
200 AM CHST THU JUL 31 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.4N 143.4E

ABOUT 110 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 120 MILES WEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 155 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 165 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
143.4 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH. TROPICAL STORM HALONG
IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
HALONG IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW INTENSIFICATION TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 800 AM.

$$

M. AYDLETT








000
WTPQ31 PGUM 301539
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
200 AM CHST THU JUL 31 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.4N 143.4E

ABOUT 110 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 120 MILES WEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 155 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 165 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
143.4 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH. TROPICAL STORM HALONG
IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
HALONG IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW INTENSIFICATION TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 800 AM.

$$

M. AYDLETT









000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301526
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A LOW NEAR 11N119W IS AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE
THAT EXTENDS TO 17N118W AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
9N TO 12N BETWEEN 116W TO 122W. CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW IS
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
CURVATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONVERGING INTO THE LOW PRES FROM THE SOUTH ARE GENERATING A
WELL DEFINED BAND OF CONVECTION FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 116W AND
124W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT A GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N101W TO 17N99W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
ANCHORED INLAND OVER S MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN TROUGH AXIS AND 106W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N118W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N119W
MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N78W ALONG 9N90W 8N102W 9N113W
TO1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N119W TO A SECOND 1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N131W
TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 15N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 81W AND
85W...WITHIN 60 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 84W AND 92W...AND
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 102W AND 113W...WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM
11N107W TO 16N116W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 131W AND 134W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 138W
AND 141W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW OF HERNAN IS ANALYZED AS A 1014 MB LOW NEAR
25N124W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N124W THROUGH THE
LOW TO 23N124W. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SEAS REMAIN TO
8 FT N OF THE LOW CENTER. THE LOW IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND BENEATH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM 30N125W ALONG 23N123W TO 17N126W. DRY STABLE AIR IS W OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND COUPLED WITH THE SHEAR...NO ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. THE LOW IS EXPECT TO CONTINUE ON A WESTERLY TRACK
INTO MORE STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATER...BECOMING A WEAK TROUGH
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A 1010 MB LOW IS WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N131W.  NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECT HOWEVER WITH THIS LOW OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS DRY AIR ALOFT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE GROWTH.

A 1011 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 15N140W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE LOW PRES AND A SURFACE RIDGE HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS. HOWEVER THE SEAS REMAIN TO 8
FT NEAR THIS LOW AND WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO...PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING THEN
RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING.

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301526
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A LOW NEAR 11N119W IS AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE
THAT EXTENDS TO 17N118W AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
9N TO 12N BETWEEN 116W TO 122W. CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW IS
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
CURVATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONVERGING INTO THE LOW PRES FROM THE SOUTH ARE GENERATING A
WELL DEFINED BAND OF CONVECTION FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 116W AND
124W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT A GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N101W TO 17N99W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
ANCHORED INLAND OVER S MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN TROUGH AXIS AND 106W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N118W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N119W
MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N78W ALONG 9N90W 8N102W 9N113W
TO1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N119W TO A SECOND 1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N131W
TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 15N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 81W AND
85W...WITHIN 60 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 84W AND 92W...AND
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 102W AND 113W...WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM
11N107W TO 16N116W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 131W AND 134W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 138W
AND 141W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW OF HERNAN IS ANALYZED AS A 1014 MB LOW NEAR
25N124W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N124W THROUGH THE
LOW TO 23N124W. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SEAS REMAIN TO
8 FT N OF THE LOW CENTER. THE LOW IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND BENEATH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM 30N125W ALONG 23N123W TO 17N126W. DRY STABLE AIR IS W OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND COUPLED WITH THE SHEAR...NO ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. THE LOW IS EXPECT TO CONTINUE ON A WESTERLY TRACK
INTO MORE STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATER...BECOMING A WEAK TROUGH
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A 1010 MB LOW IS WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N131W.  NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECT HOWEVER WITH THIS LOW OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS DRY AIR ALOFT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE GROWTH.

A 1011 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 15N140W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE LOW PRES AND A SURFACE RIDGE HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS. HOWEVER THE SEAS REMAIN TO 8
FT NEAR THIS LOW AND WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO...PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING THEN
RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING.

$$
PAW



000
WTPA32 PHFO 301430
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
500 AM HST WED JUL 30 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 149.6W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 795 MI...1285 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GENEVIEVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 149.6
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...WITH GENEVIEVE LIKELY BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 TO 24
HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER POWELL






000
WTPA22 PHFO 301430
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
1500 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 149.6W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 149.6W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 149.3W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 12.9N 150.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.0N 151.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.1N 153.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.3N 154.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.7N 157.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 14.1N 159.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 14.5N 162.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 149.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER POWELL







000
WTPA32 PHFO 301430
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
500 AM HST WED JUL 30 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 149.6W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 795 MI...1285 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GENEVIEVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 149.6
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...WITH GENEVIEVE LIKELY BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 TO 24
HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER POWELL







000
WTPA22 PHFO 301430
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
1500 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 149.6W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 149.6W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 149.3W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 12.9N 150.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.0N 151.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.1N 153.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.3N 154.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.7N 157.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 14.1N 159.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 14.5N 162.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 149.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER POWELL







000
WTPA32 PHFO 301430
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
500 AM HST WED JUL 30 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 149.6W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 795 MI...1285 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GENEVIEVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 149.6
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...WITH GENEVIEVE LIKELY BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 TO 24
HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER POWELL







000
WTPA22 PHFO 301430
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
1500 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 149.6W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 149.6W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 149.3W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 12.9N 150.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.0N 151.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.1N 153.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.3N 154.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.7N 157.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 14.1N 159.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 14.5N 162.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 149.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER POWELL








000
ACPN50 PHFO 301208
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
205 AM HST WED JUL 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 580
MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GENEVIEVE IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU BY 5 AM HST THIS
MORNING.

2. A DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT
810 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT MAY
PERMIT THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE WEST NORTHWEST.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WAS CENTERED ABOUT 1600 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THERE IS LITTLE...IF ANY...INDICATION THAT ANY
ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.


$$

REYNES





000
ACPN50 PHFO 301208
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
205 AM HST WED JUL 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 580
MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GENEVIEVE IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU BY 5 AM HST THIS
MORNING.

2. A DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT
810 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT MAY
PERMIT THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE WEST NORTHWEST.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WAS CENTERED ABOUT 1600 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THERE IS LITTLE...IF ANY...INDICATION THAT ANY
ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.


$$

REYNES






000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301147
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT MIERCOLES 30 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADOS A UNA AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA
CERCA DE 1150 MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DEL SUR DE BARLOVENTO
PERMANECEN LIMITADOS. EL SISTEMA CONTINUA MOSTRANDO INDICIOS DE
ORGANIZACION...SIN EMBARGO...Y LA BAJA PRESION PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN
DEPRESION TROPICAL MAS TARDE DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY O MANANA MIENTRAS
SE MUEVE GENERALMENTE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. LOS
INTERESES EN LAS ANTILLAS MENORES DEBEN SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE
SISTEMA.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 48 HORAS...ALTA...70 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301147
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT MIERCOLES 30 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADOS A UNA AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA
CERCA DE 1150 MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DEL SUR DE BARLOVENTO
PERMANECEN LIMITADOS. EL SISTEMA CONTINUA MOSTRANDO INDICIOS DE
ORGANIZACION...SIN EMBARGO...Y LA BAJA PRESION PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN
DEPRESION TROPICAL MAS TARDE DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY O MANANA MIENTRAS
SE MUEVE GENERALMENTE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. LOS
INTERESES EN LAS ANTILLAS MENORES DEBEN SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE
SISTEMA.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 48 HORAS...ALTA...70 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301147
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT MIERCOLES 30 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADOS A UNA AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA
CERCA DE 1150 MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DEL SUR DE BARLOVENTO
PERMANECEN LIMITADOS. EL SISTEMA CONTINUA MOSTRANDO INDICIOS DE
ORGANIZACION...SIN EMBARGO...Y LA BAJA PRESION PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN
DEPRESION TROPICAL MAS TARDE DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY O MANANA MIENTRAS
SE MUEVE GENERALMENTE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. LOS
INTERESES EN LAS ANTILLAS MENORES DEBEN SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE
SISTEMA.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 48 HORAS...ALTA...70 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301147
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT MIERCOLES 30 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADOS A UNA AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA
CERCA DE 1150 MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DEL SUR DE BARLOVENTO
PERMANECEN LIMITADOS. EL SISTEMA CONTINUA MOSTRANDO INDICIOS DE
ORGANIZACION...SIN EMBARGO...Y LA BAJA PRESION PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN
DEPRESION TROPICAL MAS TARDE DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY O MANANA MIENTRAS
SE MUEVE GENERALMENTE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. LOS
INTERESES EN LAS ANTILLAS MENORES DEBEN SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE
SISTEMA.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 48 HORAS...ALTA...70 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH





000
ABNT20 KNHC 301143
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1150 miles east of the southern Windward Islands
remain limited.  This system continues to show signs of
organization, however, and the low could develop into a tropical
depression later today or tomorrow while it moves generally
west-northwestward near 15 mph.  Interests in the Lesser Antilles
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABNT20 KNHC 301143
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1150 miles east of the southern Windward Islands
remain limited.  This system continues to show signs of
organization, however, and the low could develop into a tropical
depression later today or tomorrow while it moves generally
west-northwestward near 15 mph.  Interests in the Lesser Antilles
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301142
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located about 1000 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental
conditions should support the gradual development of this system
during the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Disorganized cloudiness and showers are associated with a broad
area of low pressure located about 1500 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while it moves westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Pasch


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301142
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located about 1000 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental
conditions should support the gradual development of this system
during the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Disorganized cloudiness and showers are associated with a broad
area of low pressure located about 1500 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while it moves westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Pasch



000
AXNT20 KNHC 301045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N43W MOVING W-NW AT 15 KT. THE
LOW LIES WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND CONTINUES TO SHOW AN
IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION...HOWEVER LACKS ANY ORGANIZED
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 43W-47W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N25W TO 17N26W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A
BROAD LOW-LEVEL...850 MB-700 MB...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AND ACROSS AN AREA TO THE WEST OF
THE WAVE AXIS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS AREA ALSO COINCIDES
WITH A BROAD AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FROM 08N-11N
BETWEEN 20W-29W. IN ADDITION...A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE WHICH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO THE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER COVERING MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC...HOWEVER ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 23W-27W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N48W TO 19N51W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE W-NW OF A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW
CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N43W. SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATE THE WAVE IS WITHIN A 700 MB
TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED WEST OF THE LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH. THE WAVE REMAINS WITHIN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER
AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W TO
14N19W TO 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N25W TO 09N29W TO 11N39W TO A
1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N43W TO 07N47W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENGE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N47W TO 06N54W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 11W-
15W...AND FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 29W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF NEAR 29N83W. THE
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 27N87W TO 28N91W AND BECOMES STATIONARY
TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON BAY. THE FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY
PRECIPITATION FREE...HOWEVER A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION
NEAR 28N82W TO 26N89W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE
TROUGH. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1018
MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 27N94W AND 23N84W PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SE GULF MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WATERS TODAY AND
GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...WEAK RIDGING
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE NOTED OVER MUCH
OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING FOCUSED ON BOTH SIDES OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N78W. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA...OTHERWISE...
THE ONLY OTHER CONVECTION OCCURRING IS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ALONG THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA
BETWEEN 76W-84W...AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 58W-
62W. FINALLY...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PERSIST WITH SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...THE ISLAND REMAINS WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED TO THE W-SW NEAR 18N78W. GIVEN
THE OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N76W THEN
SW TO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N81W. TO THE SE OF
THE FRONT...A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N79W TO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND EAST OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 73W-79W. FARTHER EAST...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N66W WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY
FOCUSED NEARLY IN THE SAME LOCATION THAT SUPPORTS AN AREA OF
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN
62W-68W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N54W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE
FROM THE HIGH TO 30N50W TO 22N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 301045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N43W MOVING W-NW AT 15 KT. THE
LOW LIES WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND CONTINUES TO SHOW AN
IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION...HOWEVER LACKS ANY ORGANIZED
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 43W-47W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N25W TO 17N26W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A
BROAD LOW-LEVEL...850 MB-700 MB...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AND ACROSS AN AREA TO THE WEST OF
THE WAVE AXIS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS AREA ALSO COINCIDES
WITH A BROAD AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FROM 08N-11N
BETWEEN 20W-29W. IN ADDITION...A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE WHICH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO THE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER COVERING MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC...HOWEVER ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 23W-27W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N48W TO 19N51W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE W-NW OF A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW
CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N43W. SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATE THE WAVE IS WITHIN A 700 MB
TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED WEST OF THE LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH. THE WAVE REMAINS WITHIN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER
AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W TO
14N19W TO 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N25W TO 09N29W TO 11N39W TO A
1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N43W TO 07N47W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENGE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N47W TO 06N54W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 11W-
15W...AND FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 29W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF NEAR 29N83W. THE
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 27N87W TO 28N91W AND BECOMES STATIONARY
TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON BAY. THE FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY
PRECIPITATION FREE...HOWEVER A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION
NEAR 28N82W TO 26N89W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE
TROUGH. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1018
MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 27N94W AND 23N84W PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SE GULF MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WATERS TODAY AND
GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...WEAK RIDGING
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE NOTED OVER MUCH
OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING FOCUSED ON BOTH SIDES OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N78W. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA...OTHERWISE...
THE ONLY OTHER CONVECTION OCCURRING IS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ALONG THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA
BETWEEN 76W-84W...AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 58W-
62W. FINALLY...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PERSIST WITH SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...THE ISLAND REMAINS WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED TO THE W-SW NEAR 18N78W. GIVEN
THE OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N76W THEN
SW TO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N81W. TO THE SE OF
THE FRONT...A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N79W TO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND EAST OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 73W-79W. FARTHER EAST...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N66W WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY
FOCUSED NEARLY IN THE SAME LOCATION THAT SUPPORTS AN AREA OF
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN
62W-68W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N54W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE
FROM THE HIGH TO 30N50W TO 22N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 300946 CCA
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
800 PM CHST WED JUL 30 2014

CORRECTION TO HEADER

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THE TYPHOON WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR ROTA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR GUAM.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.2N 144.0E

ABOUT  70 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  80 MILES WEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 120 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 130 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.0 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.
TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTH
SEMI-CIRCLE. TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION ON THURSDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

ZIOBRO









000
WTPQ31 PGUM 300946 CCA
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
800 PM CHST WED JUL 30 2014

CORRECTION TO HEADER

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THE TYPHOON WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR ROTA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR GUAM.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.2N 144.0E

ABOUT  70 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  80 MILES WEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 120 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 130 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.0 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.
TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTH
SEMI-CIRCLE. TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION ON THURSDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

ZIOBRO









000
WTPQ31 PGUM 300946 CCA
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
800 PM CHST WED JUL 30 2014

CORRECTION TO HEADER

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THE TYPHOON WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR ROTA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR GUAM.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.2N 144.0E

ABOUT  70 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  80 MILES WEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 120 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 130 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.0 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.
TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTH
SEMI-CIRCLE. TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION ON THURSDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

ZIOBRO









000
WTPQ31 PGUM 300946 CCA
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
800 PM CHST WED JUL 30 2014

CORRECTION TO HEADER

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THE TYPHOON WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR ROTA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR GUAM.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.2N 144.0E

ABOUT  70 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  80 MILES WEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 120 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 130 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.0 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.
TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTH
SEMI-CIRCLE. TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION ON THURSDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

ZIOBRO









000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300932
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 98W N OF 12N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A
CLUSTER A MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG THE WAVE IS IN A FAVORABLE
AREA FOR CONVECTIVE GROWTH ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 19N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120
NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 11N.

A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 118W FROM 11N TO 17N. A 1010 MB
LOW PRES CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N118W. CONVERGENT
NE TO E WINDS INTO THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ARE
CREATING A LINE OF MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO
15N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N118W
1010 MB TO LOW NEAR 11N118W 1010 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS E OF 83W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN
60 NM SE QUADRANT OF LOW NEAR 11N118W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN
113W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW OF HERNAN IS ANALYZED AS A 1014 MB LOW PRES ON
THE 0600 UTC SURFACE MAP NEAR 24N123W. AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS
FROM 0500 UTC INDICATED HERNAN IS STILL A CLOSED CIRCULATION
WITH 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE N
QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THE LOW IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG SOUTHERLY
SHEAR ON THE EAST SIDE OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
30N120W TO 17N125W. THE LAST ACTIVE CONVECTION ENDED SEVERAL
HOURS AGO AND WAS DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER. THE LOW IS EXPECT TO CONTINUE ON A WESTERLY TRACK INTO
MORE STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATER...BECOMING A WEAK TROUGH WITH
THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

CONVECTION AROUND THE 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N118W IS BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED. THE ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 05 UTC INDICATED
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE LOW PRES FROM THE
SOUTH...INITIATING A WELL DEFINED BAND OF CONVECTION FROM 05N TO
08N BETWEEN 113W AND 123W. GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THE
GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET INDICATE THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 11N130W. CONVECTION
HAS DISSIPATED ALMOST ENTIRELY AROUND THIS LOW IN THE PAST SIX
HOURS...ALTHOUGH A 0630 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 90 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECT HOWEVER WITH THIS LOW OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS DRY AIR ALOFT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE GROWTH.

ANOTHER 1011 MB LOW PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 15N139W. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND A RIDGE OVER THE NW WATERS IS
RESULTING IN AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT
FROM 15N TO 20N W OF 135W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE LOW IS
CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY TO THE WEST OF 140W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO...PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. AN
ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 03 UTC INDICATED AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG GAP WINDS EMERGING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIKELY
RELATED TO THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W. THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THROUGH THIS MORNING.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300932
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 98W N OF 12N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A
CLUSTER A MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG THE WAVE IS IN A FAVORABLE
AREA FOR CONVECTIVE GROWTH ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 19N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120
NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 11N.

A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 118W FROM 11N TO 17N. A 1010 MB
LOW PRES CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N118W. CONVERGENT
NE TO E WINDS INTO THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ARE
CREATING A LINE OF MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO
15N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N118W
1010 MB TO LOW NEAR 11N118W 1010 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS E OF 83W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN
60 NM SE QUADRANT OF LOW NEAR 11N118W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN
113W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW OF HERNAN IS ANALYZED AS A 1014 MB LOW PRES ON
THE 0600 UTC SURFACE MAP NEAR 24N123W. AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS
FROM 0500 UTC INDICATED HERNAN IS STILL A CLOSED CIRCULATION
WITH 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE N
QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THE LOW IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG SOUTHERLY
SHEAR ON THE EAST SIDE OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
30N120W TO 17N125W. THE LAST ACTIVE CONVECTION ENDED SEVERAL
HOURS AGO AND WAS DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER. THE LOW IS EXPECT TO CONTINUE ON A WESTERLY TRACK INTO
MORE STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATER...BECOMING A WEAK TROUGH WITH
THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

CONVECTION AROUND THE 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N118W IS BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED. THE ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 05 UTC INDICATED
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE LOW PRES FROM THE
SOUTH...INITIATING A WELL DEFINED BAND OF CONVECTION FROM 05N TO
08N BETWEEN 113W AND 123W. GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THE
GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET INDICATE THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 11N130W. CONVECTION
HAS DISSIPATED ALMOST ENTIRELY AROUND THIS LOW IN THE PAST SIX
HOURS...ALTHOUGH A 0630 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 90 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECT HOWEVER WITH THIS LOW OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS DRY AIR ALOFT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE GROWTH.

ANOTHER 1011 MB LOW PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 15N139W. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND A RIDGE OVER THE NW WATERS IS
RESULTING IN AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT
FROM 15N TO 20N W OF 135W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE LOW IS
CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY TO THE WEST OF 140W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO...PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. AN
ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 03 UTC INDICATED AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG GAP WINDS EMERGING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIKELY
RELATED TO THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W. THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THROUGH THIS MORNING.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 300930
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
800 PM CHST WED JUL 30 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THE TYPHOON WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR ROTA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR GUAM.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.2N 144.0E

ABOUT  70 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  80 MILES WEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 120 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 130 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.0 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.
TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTH
SEMI-CIRCLE. TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION ON THURSDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

ZIOBRO





000
WTPQ31 PGUM 300930
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
800 PM CHST WED JUL 30 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THE TYPHOON WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR ROTA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR GUAM.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.2N 144.0E

ABOUT  70 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  80 MILES WEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 120 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 130 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.0 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.
TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTH
SEMI-CIRCLE. TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION ON THURSDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

ZIOBRO






000
WTPA22 PHFO 300830
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
0900 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 149.0W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 149.0W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 148.7W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.0N 149.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 13.1N 151.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.2N 152.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.4N 153.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.8N 155.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 14.3N 158.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 14.8N 161.3W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 149.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER POWELL








000
WTPA22 PHFO 300830
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
0900 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 149.0W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 149.0W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 148.7W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.0N 149.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 13.1N 151.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.2N 152.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.4N 153.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.8N 155.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 14.3N 158.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 14.8N 161.3W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 149.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER POWELL







000
WTPA32 PHFO 300830
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
1100 PM HST TUE JUL 29 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE REMAINS FAR SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND AND IS HEADING WEST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 149.0W
ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM SE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GENEVIEVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 149.0
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER POWELL






000
WTPQ31 PGUM 300705
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
500 PM CHST WED JUL 30 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT SIX HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.3N 144.4E

ABOUT  65 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  55 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT  95 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 105 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.4 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH.
TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTH
SEMI-CIRCLE. TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION ON THURSDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM HALONG WILL BE ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT




000
WTPQ31 PGUM 300705
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
500 PM CHST WED JUL 30 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT SIX HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.3N 144.4E

ABOUT  65 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT  55 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT  95 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 105 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.4 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH.
TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTH
SEMI-CIRCLE. TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION ON THURSDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM HALONG WILL BE ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT





000
ACPN50 PHFO 300604
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
803 PM HST TUE JUL 29 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 610
MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GENEVIEVE IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU BY 11 PM HST
TONIGHT.

2. AN ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT
820 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT MAY
PERMIT THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY WEST  DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WAS CENTERED ABOUT 1600 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THERE IS LITTLE...IF ANY...INDICATION THAT ANY
ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.


$$

REYNES






000
ACPN50 PHFO 300604
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
803 PM HST TUE JUL 29 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 610
MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GENEVIEVE IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU BY 11 PM HST
TONIGHT.

2. AN ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT
820 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT MAY
PERMIT THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY WEST  DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WAS CENTERED ABOUT 1600 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THERE IS LITTLE...IF ANY...INDICATION THAT ANY
ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.


$$

REYNES






000
ACPN50 PHFO 300604
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
803 PM HST TUE JUL 29 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 610
MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GENEVIEVE IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU BY 11 PM HST
TONIGHT.

2. AN ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT
820 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT MAY
PERMIT THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY WEST  DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WAS CENTERED ABOUT 1600 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THERE IS LITTLE...IF ANY...INDICATION THAT ANY
ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.


$$

REYNES






000
ACPN50 PHFO 300604
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
803 PM HST TUE JUL 29 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 610
MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GENEVIEVE IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU BY 11 PM HST
TONIGHT.

2. AN ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT
820 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT MAY
PERMIT THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY WEST  DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WAS CENTERED ABOUT 1600 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THERE IS LITTLE...IF ANY...INDICATION THAT ANY
ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.


$$

REYNES






000
ABPZ20 KNHC 300543
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located about 950 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
are conducive for gradual development of this system during the next
several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Disorganized cloudiness and showers are associated with a broad
area of low pressure located about 1500 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while it moves westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 300543
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located about 950 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
are conducive for gradual development of this system during the next
several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Disorganized cloudiness and showers are associated with a broad
area of low pressure located about 1500 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while it moves westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
AXNT20 KNHC 300541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N41W MOVING W-NW AT 15 KT. THE
LOW LIES WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND CONTINUES TO SHOW AN
IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION...HOWEVER LACKS ANY ORGANIZED
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 42W-46W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N23W TO 16N23W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. A BROAD LOW-LEVEL...850 MB-700 MB...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AND ACROSS AN AREA TO THE WEST
OF THE WAVE AXIS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS AREA ALSO
COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FROM
08N-11N BETWEEN 20W-29W. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERING MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC...HOWEVER
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 22W-26W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N44W TO 18N44W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE WEST OF A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 09N41W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
GLOBAL MODEL DATA AT 700 MB SEEM TO INDICATE THE WAVE MAY BE
LOCATED A FEW DEGREES FARTHER WEST AND THIS IS NOTED ON THE
METEOSAT SAHARAN AIR LAYER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N98W TO 22N97W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-
19N BETWEEN 97W-100W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-
22N BETWEEN 97W-99W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
09N23W TO 10N38W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N41W TO 07N49W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 28W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE SW
NORTH ATLC AND A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE LOW SW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF NEAR 29N83W. THE
COLD FRONT EXTENDS WESTWARD ALONG 29N TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR
GALVESTON BAY. THE FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY PRECIPITATION
FREE...HOWEVER A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ALONG 27N IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...AND FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 82W-86W. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N95W PREVAILS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND A NARROW EAST-WEST CORRIDOR FROM THE
FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE SW GULF. LOOKING AHEAD...THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
WATERS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE ON
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE NOTED OVER MUCH
OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING FOCUSED ON BOTH SIDES OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N80W.
LINGERING WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER CONVECTION OCCURRING IS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND
COSTA RICA BETWEEN 75W-84W...DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 07N/08N IN THE EAST PACIFIC
REGION. FINALLY...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PERSIST WITH SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WINDWARD PASSAGE WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DIMINISHING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE ISLAND
REMAINS WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED TO THE SW NEAR 16N80W. GIVEN THE OVERALL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A
1012 MB LOW CENTERED OFF THE SE U.S. COAST NEAR 32N77W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR 29N81W. TO THE SE OF THE FRONT...A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO 28N81W AND INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 25N-31N
BETWEEN 75W-80W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 25N66W WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY FOCUSED NEARLY IN THE SAME
LOCATION THAT SUPPORTS AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 62W-67W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N54W. THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SE FROM THE HIGH TO 30N50W TO 20N22W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 300541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N41W MOVING W-NW AT 15 KT. THE
LOW LIES WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND CONTINUES TO SHOW AN
IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION...HOWEVER LACKS ANY ORGANIZED
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 42W-46W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N23W TO 16N23W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. A BROAD LOW-LEVEL...850 MB-700 MB...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AND ACROSS AN AREA TO THE WEST
OF THE WAVE AXIS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS AREA ALSO
COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FROM
08N-11N BETWEEN 20W-29W. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERING MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC...HOWEVER
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 22W-26W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N44W TO 18N44W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE WEST OF A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 09N41W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
GLOBAL MODEL DATA AT 700 MB SEEM TO INDICATE THE WAVE MAY BE
LOCATED A FEW DEGREES FARTHER WEST AND THIS IS NOTED ON THE
METEOSAT SAHARAN AIR LAYER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N98W TO 22N97W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-
19N BETWEEN 97W-100W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-
22N BETWEEN 97W-99W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
09N23W TO 10N38W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N41W TO 07N49W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 28W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE SW
NORTH ATLC AND A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE LOW SW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF NEAR 29N83W. THE
COLD FRONT EXTENDS WESTWARD ALONG 29N TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR
GALVESTON BAY. THE FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY PRECIPITATION
FREE...HOWEVER A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ALONG 27N IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...AND FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 82W-86W. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N95W PREVAILS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND A NARROW EAST-WEST CORRIDOR FROM THE
FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE SW GULF. LOOKING AHEAD...THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
WATERS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE ON
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE NOTED OVER MUCH
OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING FOCUSED ON BOTH SIDES OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N80W.
LINGERING WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER CONVECTION OCCURRING IS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND
COSTA RICA BETWEEN 75W-84W...DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 07N/08N IN THE EAST PACIFIC
REGION. FINALLY...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PERSIST WITH SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WINDWARD PASSAGE WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DIMINISHING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE ISLAND
REMAINS WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED TO THE SW NEAR 16N80W. GIVEN THE OVERALL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A
1012 MB LOW CENTERED OFF THE SE U.S. COAST NEAR 32N77W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR 29N81W. TO THE SE OF THE FRONT...A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO 28N81W AND INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 25N-31N
BETWEEN 75W-80W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 25N66W WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY FOCUSED NEARLY IN THE SAME
LOCATION THAT SUPPORTS AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 62W-67W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N54W. THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SE FROM THE HIGH TO 30N50W TO 20N22W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 300541
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT MIERCOLES 30 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADOS A UNA AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA
CERCA DE 1300 MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DEL SUR DE BARLOVENTO
PERMANECEN LIMITADOS. SIN EMBARGO...LA CIRCULACION DEL SISTEMA
CONTINUA BIEN ORGANIZADO...Y LA BAJA PRESION PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN
DEPRESION TROPICAL MAS TARDE DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY O MANANA MIENTRAS
SE MUEVE GENERALMENTE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 48 HORAS...ALTA...70 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR CANGIALOSI




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 300541
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT MIERCOLES 30 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADOS A UNA AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA
CERCA DE 1300 MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DEL SUR DE BARLOVENTO
PERMANECEN LIMITADOS. SIN EMBARGO...LA CIRCULACION DEL SISTEMA
CONTINUA BIEN ORGANIZADO...Y LA BAJA PRESION PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN
DEPRESION TROPICAL MAS TARDE DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY O MANANA MIENTRAS
SE MUEVE GENERALMENTE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 48 HORAS...ALTA...70 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR CANGIALOSI





000
ABNT20 KNHC 300535
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1300 miles east of the southern Windward Islands
remain limited.  The circulation of the system is well organized,
however, and the low could develop into a tropical depression later
today or tomorrow while it moves generally west-northwestward near
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
ABNT20 KNHC 300535
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1300 miles east of the southern Windward Islands
remain limited.  The circulation of the system is well organized,
however, and the low could develop into a tropical depression later
today or tomorrow while it moves generally west-northwestward near
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 300325
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
200 PM CHST WED JUL 30 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG MOVING WEST AND AWAY FROM ROTA...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE NO
LONGER EXPECTED.

TYPHOON WATCH IS CANCELLED IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT SIX HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.1N 144.9E

ABOUT  46 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  20 MILES WEST OF ROTA
ABOUT  80 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT  90 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.9 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH.
TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
HALONG IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW INTENSIFICATION THURSDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM HALONG WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 500 PM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY THIS EVENING AT 800 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT





000
WTPQ31 PGUM 300325
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
200 PM CHST WED JUL 30 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG MOVING WEST AND AWAY FROM ROTA...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE NO
LONGER EXPECTED.

TYPHOON WATCH IS CANCELLED IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT SIX HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.1N 144.9E

ABOUT  46 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  20 MILES WEST OF ROTA
ABOUT  80 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT  90 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.9 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH.
TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
HALONG IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW INTENSIFICATION THURSDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM HALONG WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 500 PM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY THIS EVENING AT 800 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT





000
WTPQ31 PGUM 300325
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
200 PM CHST WED JUL 30 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG MOVING WEST AND AWAY FROM ROTA...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE NO
LONGER EXPECTED.

TYPHOON WATCH IS CANCELLED IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT SIX HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.1N 144.9E

ABOUT  46 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  20 MILES WEST OF ROTA
ABOUT  80 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT  90 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.9 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH.
TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
HALONG IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW INTENSIFICATION THURSDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM HALONG WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 500 PM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY THIS EVENING AT 800 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT





000
WTPQ31 PGUM 300325
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
200 PM CHST WED JUL 30 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG MOVING WEST AND AWAY FROM ROTA...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE NO
LONGER EXPECTED.

TYPHOON WATCH IS CANCELLED IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT SIX HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.1N 144.9E

ABOUT  46 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  20 MILES WEST OF ROTA
ABOUT  80 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT  90 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.9 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH.
TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
HALONG IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW INTENSIFICATION THURSDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM HALONG WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 500 PM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY THIS EVENING AT 800 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT





000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300246
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO ALONG 98W N OF 12N
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A CLUSTER A MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER EASTERN GUERRERO
MEXICO. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 98W AND
100W.

A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 113W FROM 06N TO 15N. A 1010 MB
LOW PRES IS ALONG WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 113W AND
120W. THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT REACHING 120W LATE WED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07N91W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 07N91W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N113W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N128W TO
11N136W. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES
SYSTEMS AND TROPICAL WAVES...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW OF HERNAN IS ANALYZED AS A 1011 MB LOW PRES ON
THE 0000 UTC SURFACE MAP NEAR 24N122.5W. A WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF
LOW CLOUDS IS STILL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. AN AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT PERSISTS WITHIN 120
NM N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE
LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS.

A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 11N128W. CONVECTION
HAS SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND NOW
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 130W AND 133W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME BANDING
FEATURES AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS OF 20-25 KT
WITHIN 120 NM NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER WITH SEAS TO 8 FT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE
LOW MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST WITHIN AROUND 120 NM TO THE N OF THE
CENTER.

ANOTHER 1011 MB LOW PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 15N139W. PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND A RIDGE OVER THE NW WATERS IS RESULTING
IN AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OF 20-25 KT FROM 15N TO 20N
W OF 135W WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE W OF
140W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS.

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE N-
CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM 30N128W TO 25N124W TO
20N124W TO 15N125W. MOSTLY DRY AIR ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGHING
GENERALLY N OF 15N BETWEEN 125W AND 131W. SLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REMNANT OF HERNAN. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WITH AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG
133W. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED OVER NORTHERN
CHIHUAHUA MEXICO WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE EPAC TO NEAR 24N115W. THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO
YESTERDAY HAS MOVED WWD AND NOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N109W. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AND
NEAR THE LOW PRES SYSTEMS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. A RIDGE ANCHORED
BY AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DOMINATES SE MEXICO
AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. ELY WINDS ALOFT ARE E OF 100W.

MIXED SW AND SE SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINUES TO
IMPACT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS S OF 02N BETWEEN 112W AND 120W
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT IN ABOUT 12
HOURS.

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO...PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W OF THIS REGION.

$$
GR


000
WTPA32 PHFO 300233
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
500 PM HST TUE JUL 29 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE REMAINS FAR SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 148.5W
ABOUT 635 MI...1025 KM SE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 850 MI...1365 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GENEVIEVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 148.5
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND THAT TIME.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BURKE






000
WTPA32 PHFO 300233
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
500 PM HST TUE JUL 29 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE REMAINS FAR SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 148.5W
ABOUT 635 MI...1025 KM SE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 850 MI...1365 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GENEVIEVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 148.5
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND THAT TIME.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BURKE







000
WTPA22 PHFO 300232
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
0300 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 148.5W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 148.5W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 148.3W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.0N 149.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.1N 150.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.2N 151.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.4N 152.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.7N 155.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 14.2N 158.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 14.7N 160.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 148.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BURKE








000
WTPA22 PHFO 300232
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
0300 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 148.5W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 148.5W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 148.3W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.0N 149.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.1N 150.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.2N 151.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.4N 152.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.7N 155.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 14.2N 158.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 14.7N 160.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 148.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BURKE







000
WTPQ31 PGUM 300225
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 6B
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
1200 PM CHST WED JUL 30 2014

...CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG PASSING ROTA...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE IMMINENT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH
OR MORE ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS IF HALONG SHOULD CHANGE COURSE.

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CHST...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.1N 145.0E

ABOUT  48 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  13 MILES WEST OF ROTA
ABOUT  75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT  85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 1200 PM CHST...0200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
145.0 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 12 MPH. TROPICAL
STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A
SLIGHT DROP IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
HALONG IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM HALONG WILL BE ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 200 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT




000
AXNT20 KNHC 300004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 9N40W...
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO
11N BETWEEN 37W AND 43W. THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN
THAT SURROUNDS THE LOW CENTER REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF FORMATION DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT....WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO
11 FEET WITHIN 90 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NORTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN 240 NM
SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 6N TO 18N BETWEEN 18W
AND 26W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS WAVE IS JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 9N40W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N TO
15N BETWEEN 42W AND 44W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 96W/97W...FROM 22N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG IN MEXICO BETWEEN 92W AND 98W. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE WAVE MAY BE ENHANCING SOME OF THE AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 14N17W TO 8N26W 10N36W...TO THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 9N40W...TO 7N48W. THE ITCZ IS NOT PRESENT AT THIS
TIME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 23W AND 28W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 48W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
9N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS FROM 70W WESTWARD...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN
AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A....TO 30N79W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N79W TO 30N83W IN
NORTHERN FLORIDA...ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG THE U.S.A. COAST TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N76W...ACROSS FLORIDA
NEAR 28N82W...TO 27N88W AND 28N93W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN FLORIDA FROM 25N TO 29N...IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W. MULTILAYERED
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 26N70W 22N77W...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N81W
24N90W 26N97W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 29/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.11 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS.

A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N95W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
THAT IS AWAY FROM THE 31N76W 28N93W SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH HAZE IS BEING REPORTED AT
THE ICAO STATION KHQI.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN TEXAS FROM BAY CITY TO
GALVESTON. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE CORPUS CHRISTI METROPOLITAN
AREA. A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE NEW
ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND IN TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA.
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN COASTAL
SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS
BROOKSVILLE FLORIDA. RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA...IN SARASOTA...
AND IN THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION
IN KEY WEST FLORIDA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 25N65W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 29N BETWEEN 57W AND 71W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA AND COASTAL WATERS...TO 29N BETWEEN
60W AND 70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 7N78W
AND BEYOND 8N85W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND
NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W...AND IN
PANAMA BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 77W AND 87W.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...
EVEN DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE
WIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. EXPECT ALSO
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM
10.5N TO 16N BETWEEN 73W AND 83W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N65W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 29N
BETWEEN 57W AND 71W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA AND
COASTAL WATERS...TO 29N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 22N51W TO 17N53W
TO 10N57W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 210
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM THE LINE 14N58W 12N55W
11N53W TO 22N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO 21N BETWEEN 53W
AND 61W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 30N49W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE AREA FROM 25N TO 33N BETWEEN 45W AND 55W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 28N
TO 33N BETWEEN 46W AND 54W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO
24N29W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF 20N36W BEYOND
32N21W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO NEAR 32N17W TO 21N27W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8
FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 47W AND 58W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 300004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 9N40W...
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO
11N BETWEEN 37W AND 43W. THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN
THAT SURROUNDS THE LOW CENTER REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF FORMATION DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT....WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO
11 FEET WITHIN 90 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NORTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN 240 NM
SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 6N TO 18N BETWEEN 18W
AND 26W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS WAVE IS JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 9N40W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N TO
15N BETWEEN 42W AND 44W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 96W/97W...FROM 22N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG IN MEXICO BETWEEN 92W AND 98W. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE WAVE MAY BE ENHANCING SOME OF THE AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 14N17W TO 8N26W 10N36W...TO THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 9N40W...TO 7N48W. THE ITCZ IS NOT PRESENT AT THIS
TIME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 23W AND 28W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 48W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
9N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS FROM 70W WESTWARD...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN
AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A....TO 30N79W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N79W TO 30N83W IN
NORTHERN FLORIDA...ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG THE U.S.A. COAST TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N76W...ACROSS FLORIDA
NEAR 28N82W...TO 27N88W AND 28N93W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN FLORIDA FROM 25N TO 29N...IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W. MULTILAYERED
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 26N70W 22N77W...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N81W
24N90W 26N97W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 29/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.11 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS.

A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N95W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
THAT IS AWAY FROM THE 31N76W 28N93W SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH HAZE IS BEING REPORTED AT
THE ICAO STATION KHQI.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN TEXAS FROM BAY CITY TO
GALVESTON. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE CORPUS CHRISTI METROPOLITAN
AREA. A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE NEW
ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND IN TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA.
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN COASTAL
SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS
BROOKSVILLE FLORIDA. RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA...IN SARASOTA...
AND IN THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION
IN KEY WEST FLORIDA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 25N65W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 29N BETWEEN 57W AND 71W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA AND COASTAL WATERS...TO 29N BETWEEN
60W AND 70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 7N78W
AND BEYOND 8N85W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND
NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W...AND IN
PANAMA BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 77W AND 87W.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...
EVEN DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE
WIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. EXPECT ALSO
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM
10.5N TO 16N BETWEEN 73W AND 83W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N65W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 29N
BETWEEN 57W AND 71W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA AND
COASTAL WATERS...TO 29N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 22N51W TO 17N53W
TO 10N57W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 210
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM THE LINE 14N58W 12N55W
11N53W TO 22N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO 21N BETWEEN 53W
AND 61W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 30N49W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE AREA FROM 25N TO 33N BETWEEN 45W AND 55W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 28N
TO 33N BETWEEN 46W AND 54W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO
24N29W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF 20N36W BEYOND
32N21W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO NEAR 32N17W TO 21N27W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8
FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 47W AND 58W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 300004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 9N40W...
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO
11N BETWEEN 37W AND 43W. THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN
THAT SURROUNDS THE LOW CENTER REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF FORMATION DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT....WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO
11 FEET WITHIN 90 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NORTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN 240 NM
SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 6N TO 18N BETWEEN 18W
AND 26W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS WAVE IS JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 9N40W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N TO
15N BETWEEN 42W AND 44W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 96W/97W...FROM 22N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG IN MEXICO BETWEEN 92W AND 98W. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE WAVE MAY BE ENHANCING SOME OF THE AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 14N17W TO 8N26W 10N36W...TO THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 9N40W...TO 7N48W. THE ITCZ IS NOT PRESENT AT THIS
TIME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 23W AND 28W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 48W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
9N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS FROM 70W WESTWARD...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN
AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A....TO 30N79W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N79W TO 30N83W IN
NORTHERN FLORIDA...ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG THE U.S.A. COAST TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N76W...ACROSS FLORIDA
NEAR 28N82W...TO 27N88W AND 28N93W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN FLORIDA FROM 25N TO 29N...IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W. MULTILAYERED
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 26N70W 22N77W...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N81W
24N90W 26N97W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 29/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.11 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS.

A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N95W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
THAT IS AWAY FROM THE 31N76W 28N93W SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH HAZE IS BEING REPORTED AT
THE ICAO STATION KHQI.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN TEXAS FROM BAY CITY TO
GALVESTON. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE CORPUS CHRISTI METROPOLITAN
AREA. A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE NEW
ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND IN TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA.
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN COASTAL
SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS
BROOKSVILLE FLORIDA. RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA...IN SARASOTA...
AND IN THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION
IN KEY WEST FLORIDA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 25N65W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 29N BETWEEN 57W AND 71W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA AND COASTAL WATERS...TO 29N BETWEEN
60W AND 70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 7N78W
AND BEYOND 8N85W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND
NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W...AND IN
PANAMA BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 77W AND 87W.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...
EVEN DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE
WIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. EXPECT ALSO
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM
10.5N TO 16N BETWEEN 73W AND 83W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N65W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 29N
BETWEEN 57W AND 71W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA AND
COASTAL WATERS...TO 29N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 22N51W TO 17N53W
TO 10N57W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 210
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM THE LINE 14N58W 12N55W
11N53W TO 22N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO 21N BETWEEN 53W
AND 61W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 30N49W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE AREA FROM 25N TO 33N BETWEEN 45W AND 55W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 28N
TO 33N BETWEEN 46W AND 54W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO
24N29W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF 20N36W BEYOND
32N21W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO NEAR 32N17W TO 21N27W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8
FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 47W AND 58W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 300004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 9N40W...
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO
11N BETWEEN 37W AND 43W. THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN
THAT SURROUNDS THE LOW CENTER REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF FORMATION DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT....WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO
11 FEET WITHIN 90 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NORTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN 240 NM
SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 6N TO 18N BETWEEN 18W
AND 26W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS WAVE IS JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 9N40W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N TO
15N BETWEEN 42W AND 44W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 96W/97W...FROM 22N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG IN MEXICO BETWEEN 92W AND 98W. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE WAVE MAY BE ENHANCING SOME OF THE AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 14N17W TO 8N26W 10N36W...TO THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 9N40W...TO 7N48W. THE ITCZ IS NOT PRESENT AT THIS
TIME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 23W AND 28W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 48W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
9N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS FROM 70W WESTWARD...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN
AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A....TO 30N79W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N79W TO 30N83W IN
NORTHERN FLORIDA...ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG THE U.S.A. COAST TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N76W...ACROSS FLORIDA
NEAR 28N82W...TO 27N88W AND 28N93W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN FLORIDA FROM 25N TO 29N...IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W. MULTILAYERED
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 26N70W 22N77W...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N81W
24N90W 26N97W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 29/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.11 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS.

A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N95W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
THAT IS AWAY FROM THE 31N76W 28N93W SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH HAZE IS BEING REPORTED AT
THE ICAO STATION KHQI.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN TEXAS FROM BAY CITY TO
GALVESTON. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE CORPUS CHRISTI METROPOLITAN
AREA. A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE NEW
ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND IN TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA.
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN COASTAL
SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS
BROOKSVILLE FLORIDA. RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA...IN SARASOTA...
AND IN THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION
IN KEY WEST FLORIDA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 25N65W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 29N BETWEEN 57W AND 71W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA AND COASTAL WATERS...TO 29N BETWEEN
60W AND 70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 7N78W
AND BEYOND 8N85W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND
NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W...AND IN
PANAMA BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 77W AND 87W.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...
EVEN DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE
WIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. EXPECT ALSO
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM
10.5N TO 16N BETWEEN 73W AND 83W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N65W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 29N
BETWEEN 57W AND 71W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA AND
COASTAL WATERS...TO 29N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 22N51W TO 17N53W
TO 10N57W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 210
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM THE LINE 14N58W 12N55W
11N53W TO 22N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO 21N BETWEEN 53W
AND 61W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 30N49W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE AREA FROM 25N TO 33N BETWEEN 45W AND 55W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 28N
TO 33N BETWEEN 46W AND 54W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO
24N29W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF 20N36W BEYOND
32N21W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO NEAR 32N17W TO 21N27W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8
FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 47W AND 58W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 300001
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
1000 AM CHST WED JUL 30 2014

...CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG JUST EAST OF ROTA...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE IMMINENT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH
OR MORE ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IF HALONG SHOULD CHANGE COURSE.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.1N 145.4E

ABOUT  65 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  13 MILES EAST OF ROTA
ABOUT  65 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT  75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
145.4 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 12 MPH. TROPICAL
STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A
SLIGHT DROP IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
HALONG IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM HALONG WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 1200 PM...NOON.

$$

W. AYDLETT




000
WTPQ31 PGUM 300001
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
1000 AM CHST WED JUL 30 2014

...CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG JUST EAST OF ROTA...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE IMMINENT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH
OR MORE ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IF HALONG SHOULD CHANGE COURSE.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.1N 145.4E

ABOUT  65 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  13 MILES EAST OF ROTA
ABOUT  65 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT  75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
145.4 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 12 MPH. TROPICAL
STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A
SLIGHT DROP IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
HALONG IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM HALONG WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 1200 PM...NOON.

$$

W. AYDLETT





000
ACPN50 PHFO 292350
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST TUE JUL 29 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 670
MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GENEVIEVE IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU BY 11 PM HST
TONIGHT.

2. A ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT
800 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT MAY
PERMIT THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY WEST  DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WAS CENTERED ABOUT 1650 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THERE IS LITTLE...IF ANY...INDICATION THAT ANY
ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

EVANS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 292350
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST TUE JUL 29 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 670
MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GENEVIEVE IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU BY 11 PM HST
TONIGHT.

2. A ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT
800 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT MAY
PERMIT THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY WEST  DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WAS CENTERED ABOUT 1650 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THERE IS LITTLE...IF ANY...INDICATION THAT ANY
ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

EVANS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 292350
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST TUE JUL 29 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 670
MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GENEVIEVE IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU BY 11 PM HST
TONIGHT.

2. A ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT
800 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT MAY
PERMIT THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY WEST  DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WAS CENTERED ABOUT 1650 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THERE IS LITTLE...IF ANY...INDICATION THAT ANY
ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

EVANS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 292350
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST TUE JUL 29 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 670
MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. GENEVIEVE IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU BY 11 PM HST
TONIGHT.

2. A ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT
800 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT MAY
PERMIT THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY WEST  DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WAS CENTERED ABOUT 1650 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THERE IS LITTLE...IF ANY...INDICATION THAT ANY
ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

EVANS






000
ACCA62 TJSJ 292344
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT MARTES 29 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

IMAGENES DE SATELITE INDICAN QUE LOS AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADOS
A UNA AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA CERCA DE 1400 MILLAS AL ESTE
DE LAS ISLAS DEL SUR DE BARLOVENTO ESTAN ACTUALMENTE LIMITADOS. ESTE
SISTEMA CONTINUA BIEN ORGANIZADO...SIN EMBARGO... Y PODRIA
CONVERTIRSE EN DEPRESION TROPICAL MAS TARDE DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY O
MANANA MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE U OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE
15 MPH.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 48 HORAS...ALTA...70 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 292344
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT MARTES 29 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

IMAGENES DE SATELITE INDICAN QUE LOS AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADOS
A UNA AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA CERCA DE 1400 MILLAS AL ESTE
DE LAS ISLAS DEL SUR DE BARLOVENTO ESTAN ACTUALMENTE LIMITADOS. ESTE
SISTEMA CONTINUA BIEN ORGANIZADO...SIN EMBARGO... Y PODRIA
CONVERTIRSE EN DEPRESION TROPICAL MAS TARDE DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY O
MANANA MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE U OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE
15 MPH.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 48 HORAS...ALTA...70 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 292344
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT MARTES 29 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

IMAGENES DE SATELITE INDICAN QUE LOS AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADOS
A UNA AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA CERCA DE 1400 MILLAS AL ESTE
DE LAS ISLAS DEL SUR DE BARLOVENTO ESTAN ACTUALMENTE LIMITADOS. ESTE
SISTEMA CONTINUA BIEN ORGANIZADO...SIN EMBARGO... Y PODRIA
CONVERTIRSE EN DEPRESION TROPICAL MAS TARDE DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY O
MANANA MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE U OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE
15 MPH.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 48 HORAS...ALTA...70 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 292344
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT MARTES 29 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

IMAGENES DE SATELITE INDICAN QUE LOS AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADOS
A UNA AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA CERCA DE 1400 MILLAS AL ESTE
DE LAS ISLAS DEL SUR DE BARLOVENTO ESTAN ACTUALMENTE LIMITADOS. ESTE
SISTEMA CONTINUA BIEN ORGANIZADO...SIN EMBARGO... Y PODRIA
CONVERTIRSE EN DEPRESION TROPICAL MAS TARDE DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY O
MANANA MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE U OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE
15 MPH.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 48 HORAS...ALTA...70 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292340
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located about 900 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
are conducive for gradual development of this system during the next
several days as this system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms has formed in association
with a low pressure system about 1500 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  Environmental
conditions appear favorable for some slow development of this system
during the next several days as the low moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292340
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located about 900 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
are conducive for gradual development of this system during the next
several days as this system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms has formed in association
with a low pressure system about 1500 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  Environmental
conditions appear favorable for some slow development of this system
during the next several days as the low moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
ABNT20 KNHC 292338
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated
with an area of low pressure located about 1400 miles east of the
southern Windward Islands are currently limited.  This system
remains well organized, however, and it could develop into a
tropical depression tonight or tomorrow while it moves westward
or west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ABNT20 KNHC 292338
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated
with an area of low pressure located about 1400 miles east of the
southern Windward Islands are currently limited.  This system
remains well organized, however, and it could develop into a
tropical depression tonight or tomorrow while it moves westward
or west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292155
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE OVER SE MEXICO ALONG 97W N OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 20
KT. CONVECTION IS LIMITED NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE
AXIS.

A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N112W TO 06N113W. A 1010
MB LOW PRES IS ALONG WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 110W
AND 118W. THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD APPROACHING 120W LATE WED.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N91W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 08N91W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N113W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N128W TO
11N136W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 107W.

...DISCUSSION...

HERNAN WAS DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW AT 29/1500 UTC AND THE
LAST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THIS SYSTEM. A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED ON THE 1800 UTC
SURFACE MAP NEAR 24N122W. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH
SEAS OF 8-11 FT IS STILL NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF THE
LOW CENTER. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO
HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 11N128W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT OF LOW CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 08N
TO 10N BETWEEN 128W AND 132W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME BANDING FEATURES AND THE 1748 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED
WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITHIN 120 NM NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER
WITH SEAS T0 8 FT. THE LOW WILL MOVE GENERALLY WEST MAINTAINING
AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN AROUND 120 NM TO THE N
OF THE CENTER.

ANOTHER 1011 MB LOW PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 15N139W. PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND A RIDGE OVER THE NW WATERS IS RESULTING
IN AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OF 20-25 KT FROM 15N TO 20N
W OF 135W WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE W OF
140W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE N-
CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM 30N128W TO 20N124W TO
15N128W. MOSTLY DRY AIR ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGHING GENERALLY N
OF 15N BETWEEN 125W AND 131W. SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REMNANT OF HERNAN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FOLLOWS THIS TROUGH WITH AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 135W. AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED OVER NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE EPAC TO NEAR
24N115W. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MEXICO YESTERDAY HAS MOVED WWD AND NOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N108W.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ
AND NEAR THE LOW PRES SYSTEMS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.

MIXED SW AND SE SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINUES TO
IMPACT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS S OF 02N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT THROUGH TODAY.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N TO 15N W OF 139W REMAINS
NEAR A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 16N139W WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
PERSISTING N OF THE LOW MOSTLY DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE LOW AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE AREA. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT
IN THIS AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES. THE LOW WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA
THROUGH TODAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS N OF THE LOW BY
EARLY MORNING WED.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...
PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS
THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W OF THIS REGION.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292155
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE OVER SE MEXICO ALONG 97W N OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 20
KT. CONVECTION IS LIMITED NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE
AXIS.

A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N112W TO 06N113W. A 1010
MB LOW PRES IS ALONG WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 110W
AND 118W. THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD APPROACHING 120W LATE WED.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N91W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 08N91W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N113W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N128W TO
11N136W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 107W.

...DISCUSSION...

HERNAN WAS DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW AT 29/1500 UTC AND THE
LAST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THIS SYSTEM. A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED ON THE 1800 UTC
SURFACE MAP NEAR 24N122W. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH
SEAS OF 8-11 FT IS STILL NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF THE
LOW CENTER. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO
HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 11N128W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT OF LOW CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 08N
TO 10N BETWEEN 128W AND 132W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME BANDING FEATURES AND THE 1748 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED
WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITHIN 120 NM NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER
WITH SEAS T0 8 FT. THE LOW WILL MOVE GENERALLY WEST MAINTAINING
AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN AROUND 120 NM TO THE N
OF THE CENTER.

ANOTHER 1011 MB LOW PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 15N139W. PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND A RIDGE OVER THE NW WATERS IS RESULTING
IN AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OF 20-25 KT FROM 15N TO 20N
W OF 135W WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE W OF
140W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE N-
CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM 30N128W TO 20N124W TO
15N128W. MOSTLY DRY AIR ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGHING GENERALLY N
OF 15N BETWEEN 125W AND 131W. SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REMNANT OF HERNAN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FOLLOWS THIS TROUGH WITH AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 135W. AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED OVER NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE EPAC TO NEAR
24N115W. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MEXICO YESTERDAY HAS MOVED WWD AND NOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N108W.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ
AND NEAR THE LOW PRES SYSTEMS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.

MIXED SW AND SE SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINUES TO
IMPACT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS S OF 02N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT THROUGH TODAY.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N TO 15N W OF 139W REMAINS
NEAR A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 16N139W WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
PERSISTING N OF THE LOW MOSTLY DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE LOW AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE AREA. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT
IN THIS AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES. THE LOW WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA
THROUGH TODAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS N OF THE LOW BY
EARLY MORNING WED.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...
PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS
THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W OF THIS REGION.

$$
GR


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 292117
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
800 AM CHST WED JUL 30 2014

...CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG HEADING BETWEEN GUAM AND ROTA...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH
OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.8N 145.6E

ABOUT  60 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  34 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT  85 MILES SOUTH OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT  90 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
145.6 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 12 MPH. TROPICAL
STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A
SLIGHT DROP IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
HALONG IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM HALONG WILL BE
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 1000 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT




000
WTPQ31 PGUM 292117
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
800 AM CHST WED JUL 30 2014

...CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG HEADING BETWEEN GUAM AND ROTA...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH
OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.8N 145.6E

ABOUT  60 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT  34 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT  85 MILES SOUTH OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT  90 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
145.6 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 12 MPH. TROPICAL
STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A
SLIGHT DROP IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
HALONG IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM HALONG WILL BE
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 1000 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT





000
ACPN50 PHFO 292053
TWOCP

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1050 AM HST TUE JUL 29 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS...THEREFORE THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEGUN
REISSUING ADVISORIES. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS LOCATED ABOUT
865 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU
BY 5 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON.

2. A WEAK CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT MAY PERMIT THIS
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WAS CENTERED ABOUT 1580 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THERE IS LITTLE...IF ANY...INDICATION THAT ANY
ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

4. A WEAK CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII MOVED WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THE
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...AND THERE IS LITTLE...IF
ANY...INDICATION THAT ANY ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

EVANS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 292053
TWOCP

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1050 AM HST TUE JUL 29 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS...THEREFORE THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEGUN
REISSUING ADVISORIES. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS LOCATED ABOUT
865 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU
BY 5 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON.

2. A WEAK CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT MAY PERMIT THIS
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WAS CENTERED ABOUT 1580 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THERE IS LITTLE...IF ANY...INDICATION THAT ANY
ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

4. A WEAK CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII MOVED WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THE
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...AND THERE IS LITTLE...IF
ANY...INDICATION THAT ANY ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

EVANS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 292053
TWOCP

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1050 AM HST TUE JUL 29 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS...THEREFORE THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEGUN
REISSUING ADVISORIES. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS LOCATED ABOUT
865 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU
BY 5 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON.

2. A WEAK CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT MAY PERMIT THIS
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WAS CENTERED ABOUT 1580 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THERE IS LITTLE...IF ANY...INDICATION THAT ANY
ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

4. A WEAK CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII MOVED WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THE
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...AND THERE IS LITTLE...IF
ANY...INDICATION THAT ANY ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

EVANS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 292053
TWOCP

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1050 AM HST TUE JUL 29 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS...THEREFORE THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEGUN
REISSUING ADVISORIES. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS LOCATED ABOUT
865 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU
BY 5 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON.

2. A WEAK CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT MAY PERMIT THIS
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WAS CENTERED ABOUT 1580 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THERE IS LITTLE...IF ANY...INDICATION THAT ANY
ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

4. A WEAK CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII MOVED WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THE
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...AND THERE IS LITTLE...IF
ANY...INDICATION THAT ANY ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

EVANS






000
WTPA32 PHFO 292031
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
1100 AM HST TUE JUL 29 2014

...TROPICAL CYCLONE GENEVIEVE RESTRENGTHENING IN THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 148.2W
ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM SE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 865 MI...1390 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GENEVIEVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 148.2
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BURKE







000
WTPA32 PHFO 292031
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
1100 AM HST TUE JUL 29 2014

...TROPICAL CYCLONE GENEVIEVE RESTRENGTHENING IN THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 148.2W
ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM SE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 865 MI...1390 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GENEVIEVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 148.2
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BURKE






000
WTPA22 PHFO 292030
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
2100 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 148.2W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 148.2W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 148.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.0N 149.0W.
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.1N 150.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 13.2N 151.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.3N 152.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.6N 154.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 14.0N 157.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 14.5N 159.7W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 148.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BURKE







000
WTPA22 PHFO 292030
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
2100 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 148.2W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 148.2W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 148.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.0N 149.0W.
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.1N 150.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 13.2N 151.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.3N 152.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.6N 154.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 14.0N 157.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 14.5N 159.7W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 148.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BURKE








000
WTPQ31 PGUM 291853
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
500 AM CHST WED JUL 30 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG CONTINUING TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH
OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 430 AM CHST...1830 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.7N 146.1E

ABOUT   90 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT   65 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT   95 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT  100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 430 AM CHST...1830 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
146.1 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH.
TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION WITH
A SLIGHT DROP IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
HALONG IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM HALONG WILL BE ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING... FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM.

$$

M. AYDLETT











000
WTPQ31 PGUM 291853
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
500 AM CHST WED JUL 30 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG CONTINUING TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH
OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 430 AM CHST...1830 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.7N 146.1E

ABOUT   90 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT   65 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT   95 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT  100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 430 AM CHST...1830 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
146.1 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH.
TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION WITH
A SLIGHT DROP IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
HALONG IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM HALONG WILL BE ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING... FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM.

$$

M. AYDLETT












000
ACPN50 PHFO 291808
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST TUE JUL 29 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE WAS
LOCATED ABOUT 620 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THE SURROUNDING
ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO REDEVELOP
AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST NEAR 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...60 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT MAY PERMIT THIS
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...20 PERCENT.

3. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WAS CENTERED ABOUT 1580 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. THERE IS LITTLE...IF ANY...INDICATION THAT ANY
ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

4. A WEAK CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII MOVED WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THE
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...AND THERE IS LITTLE...IF
ANY...INDICATION THAT ANY ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.


$$

BRENCHLEY






000
ACCA62 TJSJ 291741
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT MARTES 29 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LAS IMAGENES DE SATELITE INDICA QUE LOS AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS
ASOCIADOS A UNA AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA CERCA DE 1450 MILLAS
AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS SURENAS DE BARLOVENTO ACTUALMENTE ESTAN
LIMITADOS. ESTE SISTEMA CONTINUA BIEN ORGANIZADO...SIN EMBARGO... Y
PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN DEPRESION TROPICAL MAS TARDE DURANTE EL DIA DE
HOY O MANANA MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE U OESTE NOROESTE DE 10
A 15 MPH.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 48 HORAS...ALTA...70 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 5 DIAS...ALTA...80 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 291741
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT MARTES 29 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LAS IMAGENES DE SATELITE INDICA QUE LOS AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS
ASOCIADOS A UNA AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA CERCA DE 1450 MILLAS
AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS SURENAS DE BARLOVENTO ACTUALMENTE ESTAN
LIMITADOS. ESTE SISTEMA CONTINUA BIEN ORGANIZADO...SIN EMBARGO... Y
PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN DEPRESION TROPICAL MAS TARDE DURANTE EL DIA DE
HOY O MANANA MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE U OESTE NOROESTE DE 10
A 15 MPH.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 48 HORAS...ALTA...70 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 5 DIAS...ALTA...80 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 291741
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT MARTES 29 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LAS IMAGENES DE SATELITE INDICA QUE LOS AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS
ASOCIADOS A UNA AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA CERCA DE 1450 MILLAS
AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS SURENAS DE BARLOVENTO ACTUALMENTE ESTAN
LIMITADOS. ESTE SISTEMA CONTINUA BIEN ORGANIZADO...SIN EMBARGO... Y
PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN DEPRESION TROPICAL MAS TARDE DURANTE EL DIA DE
HOY O MANANA MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE U OESTE NOROESTE DE 10
A 15 MPH.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 48 HORAS...ALTA...70 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 5 DIAS...ALTA...80 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 291741
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT MARTES 29 DE JULIO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LAS IMAGENES DE SATELITE INDICA QUE LOS AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS
ASOCIADOS A UNA AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA CERCA DE 1450 MILLAS
AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS SURENAS DE BARLOVENTO ACTUALMENTE ESTAN
LIMITADOS. ESTE SISTEMA CONTINUA BIEN ORGANIZADO...SIN EMBARGO... Y
PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN DEPRESION TROPICAL MAS TARDE DURANTE EL DIA DE
HOY O MANANA MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE U OESTE NOROESTE DE 10
A 15 MPH.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 48 HORAS...ALTA...70 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION EN 5 DIAS...ALTA...80 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH





000
AXNT20 KNHC 291739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1011 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH
NEAR 10N39W AND IS MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 38W-43W.
BANDING FEATURES SURROUND THE CENTER EXCEPT OVER THE NE
QUADRANT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N21W TO 07N22W AND IS MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR
LAYER WHILE S OF 11N THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 06N-09N
BETWEEN 17W-25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED W OF THE DISTURBANCE DISCUSSED IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N42W TO
09N42W AND IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. MOST OF THE WAVE IS WITHIN THE
DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH IS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH
THE AXIS ALONG 95W S OF 22N AND CONTINUES SOUTHWARD TO 13N. THE
WAVE IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. THERE IS MINIMAL CONVECTION OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ALSO OVER MEXICO WITHIN 2
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 14N17W
TO 07N26W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N39W TO 07N45W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N45W TO
09N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N30W TO 07N25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN EAST-WEST MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WITH THE AXIS ALONG 29N. RESULTING LIGHT TO
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS COVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE GULF. THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY S OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
LOWER SE GEORGIA COAST TO JUST S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA INTO
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. A TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 28.5N80.5W TO
28N87.5W TO 29N94W WITH SCATTERED TSTMS...SOME STRONG...LOCATED
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A 1018 MB HIGH IS
LOCATED NEAR 25.5N92.5W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF
15N W OF 76W. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF
16N E OF 70W DUE TO A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
OVER THE ATLANTIC NEAR 25N65W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER MOST OF THE BASIN. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES
COVER THE CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED RECENTLY OVER THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAIN AREAS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR
25N65W...ABOUT 8 DEGREES IN DIAMETER...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY W AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE FAR NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF
29N W OF 75W. ANOTHER MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
LOCATED NEAR 30N50W...NEARLY STATIONARY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS
LOCATED N OF 28N BETWEEN 20W AND 38W. A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR 22N40W. MODERATE
EASTERLIES ALOFT ARE OVER THE TROPICS S OF 18N TO THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 30W AND 50W WITH SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATING
SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 40 KT. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM
31N79W TO 28.5N80.5W. SCATTERED TSTMS...SOME STRONG...ARE
LOCATED NW OF A LINE FROM 32N70W TO 24N80W. A COLD FRONT IS
LOCATED THROUGH 33N76.5W TO THE LOWER SE GEORGIA COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB



000
AXNT20 KNHC 291739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1011 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH
NEAR 10N39W AND IS MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 38W-43W.
BANDING FEATURES SURROUND THE CENTER EXCEPT OVER THE NE
QUADRANT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N21W TO 07N22W AND IS MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR
LAYER WHILE S OF 11N THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 06N-09N
BETWEEN 17W-25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED W OF THE DISTURBANCE DISCUSSED IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N42W TO
09N42W AND IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. MOST OF THE WAVE IS WITHIN THE
DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH IS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH
THE AXIS ALONG 95W S OF 22N AND CONTINUES SOUTHWARD TO 13N. THE
WAVE IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. THERE IS MINIMAL CONVECTION OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ALSO OVER MEXICO WITHIN 2
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 14N17W
TO 07N26W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N39W TO 07N45W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N45W TO
09N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N30W TO 07N25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN EAST-WEST MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WITH THE AXIS ALONG 29N. RESULTING LIGHT TO
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS COVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE GULF. THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY S OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
LOWER SE GEORGIA COAST TO JUST S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA INTO
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. A TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 28.5N80.5W TO
28N87.5W TO 29N94W WITH SCATTERED TSTMS...SOME STRONG...LOCATED
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A 1018 MB HIGH IS
LOCATED NEAR 25.5N92.5W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF
15N W OF 76W. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF
16N E OF 70W DUE TO A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
OVER THE ATLANTIC NEAR 25N65W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER MOST OF THE BASIN. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES
COVER THE CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED RECENTLY OVER THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAIN AREAS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR
25N65W...ABOUT 8 DEGREES IN DIAMETER...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY W AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE FAR NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF
29N W OF 75W. ANOTHER MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
LOCATED NEAR 30N50W...NEARLY STATIONARY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS
LOCATED N OF 28N BETWEEN 20W AND 38W. A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR 22N40W. MODERATE
EASTERLIES ALOFT ARE OVER THE TROPICS S OF 18N TO THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 30W AND 50W WITH SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATING
SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 40 KT. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM
31N79W TO 28.5N80.5W. SCATTERED TSTMS...SOME STRONG...ARE
LOCATED NW OF A LINE FROM 32N70W TO 24N80W. A COLD FRONT IS
LOCATED THROUGH 33N76.5W TO THE LOWER SE GEORGIA COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB



000
AXNT20 KNHC 291739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1011 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH
NEAR 10N39W AND IS MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 38W-43W.
BANDING FEATURES SURROUND THE CENTER EXCEPT OVER THE NE
QUADRANT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N21W TO 07N22W AND IS MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR
LAYER WHILE S OF 11N THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 06N-09N
BETWEEN 17W-25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED W OF THE DISTURBANCE DISCUSSED IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N42W TO
09N42W AND IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. MOST OF THE WAVE IS WITHIN THE
DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH IS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH
THE AXIS ALONG 95W S OF 22N AND CONTINUES SOUTHWARD TO 13N. THE
WAVE IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. THERE IS MINIMAL CONVECTION OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ALSO OVER MEXICO WITHIN 2
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 14N17W
TO 07N26W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N39W TO 07N45W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N45W TO
09N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N30W TO 07N25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN EAST-WEST MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WITH THE AXIS ALONG 29N. RESULTING LIGHT TO
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS COVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE GULF. THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY S OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
LOWER SE GEORGIA COAST TO JUST S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA INTO
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. A TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 28.5N80.5W TO
28N87.5W TO 29N94W WITH SCATTERED TSTMS...SOME STRONG...LOCATED
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A 1018 MB HIGH IS
LOCATED NEAR 25.5N92.5W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF
15N W OF 76W. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF
16N E OF 70W DUE TO A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
OVER THE ATLANTIC NEAR 25N65W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER MOST OF THE BASIN. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES
COVER THE CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED RECENTLY OVER THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAIN AREAS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR
25N65W...ABOUT 8 DEGREES IN DIAMETER...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY W AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE FAR NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF
29N W OF 75W. ANOTHER MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
LOCATED NEAR 30N50W...NEARLY STATIONARY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS
LOCATED N OF 28N BETWEEN 20W AND 38W. A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR 22N40W. MODERATE
EASTERLIES ALOFT ARE OVER THE TROPICS S OF 18N TO THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 30W AND 50W WITH SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATING
SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 40 KT. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM
31N79W TO 28.5N80.5W. SCATTERED TSTMS...SOME STRONG...ARE
LOCATED NW OF A LINE FROM 32N70W TO 24N80W. A COLD FRONT IS
LOCATED THROUGH 33N76.5W TO THE LOWER SE GEORGIA COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB



000
AXNT20 KNHC 291739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1011 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH
NEAR 10N39W AND IS MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 38W-43W.
BANDING FEATURES SURROUND THE CENTER EXCEPT OVER THE NE
QUADRANT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N21W TO 07N22W AND IS MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR
LAYER WHILE S OF 11N THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 06N-09N
BETWEEN 17W-25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED W OF THE DISTURBANCE DISCUSSED IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N42W TO
09N42W AND IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. MOST OF THE WAVE IS WITHIN THE
DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH IS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH
THE AXIS ALONG 95W S OF 22N AND CONTINUES SOUTHWARD TO 13N. THE
WAVE IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. THERE IS MINIMAL CONVECTION OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ALSO OVER MEXICO WITHIN 2
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 14N17W
TO 07N26W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N39W TO 07N45W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N45W TO
09N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N30W TO 07N25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN EAST-WEST MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WITH THE AXIS ALONG 29N. RESULTING LIGHT TO
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS COVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE GULF. THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY S OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
LOWER SE GEORGIA COAST TO JUST S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA INTO
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. A TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 28.5N80.5W TO
28N87.5W TO 29N94W WITH SCATTERED TSTMS...SOME STRONG...LOCATED
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A 1018 MB HIGH IS
LOCATED NEAR 25.5N92.5W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF
15N W OF 76W. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF
16N E OF 70W DUE TO A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
OVER THE ATLANTIC NEAR 25N65W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER MOST OF THE BASIN. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES
COVER THE CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED RECENTLY OVER THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAIN AREAS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR
25N65W...ABOUT 8 DEGREES IN DIAMETER...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY W AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE FAR NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF
29N W OF 75W. ANOTHER MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
LOCATED NEAR 30N50W...NEARLY STATIONARY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS
LOCATED N OF 28N BETWEEN 20W AND 38W. A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR 22N40W. MODERATE
EASTERLIES ALOFT ARE OVER THE TROPICS S OF 18N TO THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 30W AND 50W WITH SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATING
SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 40 KT. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM
31N79W TO 28.5N80.5W. SCATTERED TSTMS...SOME STRONG...ARE
LOCATED NW OF A LINE FROM 32N70W TO 24N80W. A COLD FRONT IS
LOCATED THROUGH 33N76.5W TO THE LOWER SE GEORGIA COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB



000
ABNT20 KNHC 291738
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated
with an area of low pressure located about 1450 miles east of the
southern Windward Islands are currently limited.  This system
remains well organized, however, and it could develop into a
tropical depression later today or tomorrow while it moves westward
or west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABNT20 KNHC 291738
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated
with an area of low pressure located about 1450 miles east of the
southern Windward Islands are currently limited.  This system
remains well organized, however, and it could develop into a
tropical depression later today or tomorrow while it moves westward
or west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABNT20 KNHC 291738
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated
with an area of low pressure located about 1450 miles east of the
southern Windward Islands are currently limited.  This system
remains well organized, however, and it could develop into a
tropical depression later today or tomorrow while it moves westward
or west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABNT20 KNHC 291738
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated
with an area of low pressure located about 1450 miles east of the
southern Windward Islands are currently limited.  This system
remains well organized, however, and it could develop into a
tropical depression later today or tomorrow while it moves westward
or west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291737
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the final advisory on
Hernan, which has become a post-tropical cyclone several
hundred miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

An area of disorganized cloudiness and showers extending several
hundred miles off the southwestern coast of Mexico is associated
with a tropical wave.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system later this week or this
weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291737
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the final advisory on
Hernan, which has become a post-tropical cyclone several
hundred miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

An area of disorganized cloudiness and showers extending several
hundred miles off the southwestern coast of Mexico is associated
with a tropical wave.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system later this week or this
weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291737
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the final advisory on
Hernan, which has become a post-tropical cyclone several
hundred miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

An area of disorganized cloudiness and showers extending several
hundred miles off the southwestern coast of Mexico is associated
with a tropical wave.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system later this week or this
weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291737
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the final advisory on
Hernan, which has become a post-tropical cyclone several
hundred miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

An area of disorganized cloudiness and showers extending several
hundred miles off the southwestern coast of Mexico is associated
with a tropical wave.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system later this week or this
weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 291535
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
200 AM CHST WED JUL 30 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH
OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.5N 146.5E

ABOUT  120 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT   95 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT  120 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT  125 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
146.5 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13
MPH. TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION
WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM HALONG IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON LATER TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM HALONG WILL BE
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 500 AM THIS MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 AM.

$$

M. AYDLETT









000
WTPQ31 PGUM 291535
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
200 AM CHST WED JUL 30 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH
OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.5N 146.5E

ABOUT  120 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT   95 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT  120 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT  125 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
146.5 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13
MPH. TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION
WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM HALONG IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON LATER TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM HALONG WILL BE
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 500 AM THIS MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 AM.

$$

M. AYDLETT








000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291522
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO POST TROPICAL LOW
AT 29/1500 UTC. THE REMNANTS OF HERNAN IS CENTERED NEAR 23.5N
121.1W OR ABOUT 620 NM W OF SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MOVING W-NW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM IN NW
QUADRANT. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 12N ALONG 95W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
N OF 12N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 6N113W TO 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N113W TO 16N110W
MOVING W 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 11N107W TO
14N112W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
7N TO 10N BETWEEN 108W AND 114W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N93W ALONG 7N93W TO 7N97W WHERE
THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 10N108W THEN RESUMES 10N115W
ALONG 6N120W TO 9N126W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 3N TO
6N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF ITCZ
BETWEEN 117W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM 30N126W TO
16N126W...DELIVERING DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE ITCZ W OF 123W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT AT THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE
RELATIVELY MOIST AREAS ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR THE LOW AT 11N127W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N TO 12N
BETWEEN 126W TO 130W.

PERSISTENT SHEAR AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...ALONG WITH COOLER
WATER TEMPERATURES AND MORE STABLE AIR ARE TOGETHER CONTRIBUTING
TO THE WEAKENING OF HERNAN.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N TO 15N W OF 139W REMAINS
NEAR A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 16N139W WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
PERSISTING N OF THE LOW MOSTLY DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE LOW AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE AREA. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT
IN THIS AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES. THE LOW WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA
THROUGH TODAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS N OF THE LOW BY
EARLY MORNING WED.

THE N WINDS TO 25 KT THAT HAVE BEEN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WITH SEAS TO 9 FT HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
NEAR 95W. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BY EVENING.

WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AROUND 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 20 KT AND 8 FT BY LATE WED
MORNING.

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291522
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO POST TROPICAL LOW
AT 29/1500 UTC. THE REMNANTS OF HERNAN IS CENTERED NEAR 23.5N
121.1W OR ABOUT 620 NM W OF SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MOVING W-NW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM IN NW
QUADRANT. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 12N ALONG 95W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
N OF 12N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 6N113W TO 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N113W TO 16N110W
MOVING W 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 11N107W TO
14N112W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
7N TO 10N BETWEEN 108W AND 114W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N93W ALONG 7N93W TO 7N97W WHERE
THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 10N108W THEN RESUMES 10N115W
ALONG 6N120W TO 9N126W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 3N TO
6N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF ITCZ
BETWEEN 117W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM 30N126W TO
16N126W...DELIVERING DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE ITCZ W OF 123W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT AT THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE
RELATIVELY MOIST AREAS ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR THE LOW AT 11N127W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N TO 12N
BETWEEN 126W TO 130W.

PERSISTENT SHEAR AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...ALONG WITH COOLER
WATER TEMPERATURES AND MORE STABLE AIR ARE TOGETHER CONTRIBUTING
TO THE WEAKENING OF HERNAN.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N TO 15N W OF 139W REMAINS
NEAR A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 16N139W WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
PERSISTING N OF THE LOW MOSTLY DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE LOW AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE AREA. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT
IN THIS AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES. THE LOW WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA
THROUGH TODAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS N OF THE LOW BY
EARLY MORNING WED.

THE N WINDS TO 25 KT THAT HAVE BEEN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WITH SEAS TO 9 FT HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
NEAR 95W. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BY EVENING.

WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AROUND 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 20 KT AND 8 FT BY LATE WED
MORNING.

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291522
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO POST TROPICAL LOW
AT 29/1500 UTC. THE REMNANTS OF HERNAN IS CENTERED NEAR 23.5N
121.1W OR ABOUT 620 NM W OF SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MOVING W-NW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM IN NW
QUADRANT. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 12N ALONG 95W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
N OF 12N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 6N113W TO 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N113W TO 16N110W
MOVING W 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 11N107W TO
14N112W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
7N TO 10N BETWEEN 108W AND 114W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N93W ALONG 7N93W TO 7N97W WHERE
THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 10N108W THEN RESUMES 10N115W
ALONG 6N120W TO 9N126W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 3N TO
6N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF ITCZ
BETWEEN 117W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM 30N126W TO
16N126W...DELIVERING DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE ITCZ W OF 123W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT AT THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE
RELATIVELY MOIST AREAS ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR THE LOW AT 11N127W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N TO 12N
BETWEEN 126W TO 130W.

PERSISTENT SHEAR AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...ALONG WITH COOLER
WATER TEMPERATURES AND MORE STABLE AIR ARE TOGETHER CONTRIBUTING
TO THE WEAKENING OF HERNAN.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N TO 15N W OF 139W REMAINS
NEAR A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 16N139W WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
PERSISTING N OF THE LOW MOSTLY DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE LOW AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE AREA. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT
IN THIS AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES. THE LOW WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA
THROUGH TODAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS N OF THE LOW BY
EARLY MORNING WED.

THE N WINDS TO 25 KT THAT HAVE BEEN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WITH SEAS TO 9 FT HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
NEAR 95W. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BY EVENING.

WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AROUND 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 20 KT AND 8 FT BY LATE WED
MORNING.

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291522
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO POST TROPICAL LOW
AT 29/1500 UTC. THE REMNANTS OF HERNAN IS CENTERED NEAR 23.5N
121.1W OR ABOUT 620 NM W OF SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MOVING W-NW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM IN NW
QUADRANT. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 12N ALONG 95W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
N OF 12N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 6N113W TO 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N113W TO 16N110W
MOVING W 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 11N107W TO
14N112W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
7N TO 10N BETWEEN 108W AND 114W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N93W ALONG 7N93W TO 7N97W WHERE
THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 10N108W THEN RESUMES 10N115W
ALONG 6N120W TO 9N126W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 3N TO
6N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF ITCZ
BETWEEN 117W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM 30N126W TO
16N126W...DELIVERING DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE ITCZ W OF 123W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT AT THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE
RELATIVELY MOIST AREAS ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR THE LOW AT 11N127W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N TO 12N
BETWEEN 126W TO 130W.

PERSISTENT SHEAR AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...ALONG WITH COOLER
WATER TEMPERATURES AND MORE STABLE AIR ARE TOGETHER CONTRIBUTING
TO THE WEAKENING OF HERNAN.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N TO 15N W OF 139W REMAINS
NEAR A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 16N139W WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
PERSISTING N OF THE LOW MOSTLY DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE LOW AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE AREA. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT
IN THIS AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES. THE LOW WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA
THROUGH TODAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS N OF THE LOW BY
EARLY MORNING WED.

THE N WINDS TO 25 KT THAT HAVE BEEN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WITH SEAS TO 9 FT HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
NEAR 95W. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BY EVENING.

WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AROUND 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 20 KT AND 8 FT BY LATE WED
MORNING.

$$
PAW


000
WTPZ33 KNHC 291438
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...HERNAN DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 121.1W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.1 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



000
WTPZ33 KNHC 291438
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...HERNAN DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 121.1W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.1 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 291438
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014
1500 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 121.1W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 121.1W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 120.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.3N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.9N 123.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 25.4N 125.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 121.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON HERNAN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 291438
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014
1500 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 121.1W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 121.1W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 120.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.3N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.9N 123.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 25.4N 125.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 121.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON HERNAN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS






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