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000
AXNT20 KNHC 210602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 15.5N21W IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N20W
13N22W 10N24W 9N27W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W FROM 21N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO 23N BETWEEN
50W AND 60W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 26N51W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND
THE 26N51W CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 40W AND 62W. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 26N51W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W FROM CUBA TO
COLOMBIA. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS
TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN
CUBA FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W...IN HAITI FROM 18N TO
19N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W...AND ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W...TO THE 1009 MB LOW CENTER...TO 10N29W
AND 9N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N40W TO 9N43W AND 11N51W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N
TO 14N BETWEEN 26W AND 40W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH
CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A
1008 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
32N77W...TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO 26N90W IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TO THE NORTHWEST OF 30N80W 26N87W 22N93W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL FROM 21N TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N BETWEEN 79W AND
87W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 74W AND
77W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 70W AND 75W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...
KBBF...KGVX...KGHB...KMDJ...AND KVOA.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

NOTHING IS BEING REPORTED AT THIS MOMENT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W FROM CUBA TO
COLOMBIA. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS
TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN
CUBA FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W...IN HAITI FROM 18N TO
19N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W...AND ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...ACROSS JAMAICA...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 18N82W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
13N NORTHWARD...INCLUDING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...FROM JAMAICA
WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN
77W AND 83W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N80W IN PANAMA BEYOND 10N86W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 82W AND 90W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO
20N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W FROM CUBA TO
COLOMBIA. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS
TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN
CUBA FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W...IN HAITI FROM 18N TO
19N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W...AND ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS...OTHER FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING
REPORTED AROUND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. A RIDGE WILL
FOLLOW THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS
THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24
HOURS...AND THEN THE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO JAMAICA...TO
HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR
THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 26N51W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 26N51W
CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W
AND 62W. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 26N51W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 70W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 68W/69W FROM 20N TO 27N.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 62W AND 74W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...TO 15N30W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N13W TO
31N13W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 30N TO
32N BETWEEN 13W AND 19W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 22N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 34W AND 70W. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
ALONG 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 210602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 15.5N21W IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N20W
13N22W 10N24W 9N27W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W FROM 21N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO 23N BETWEEN
50W AND 60W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 26N51W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND
THE 26N51W CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 40W AND 62W. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 26N51W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W FROM CUBA TO
COLOMBIA. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS
TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN
CUBA FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W...IN HAITI FROM 18N TO
19N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W...AND ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W...TO THE 1009 MB LOW CENTER...TO 10N29W
AND 9N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N40W TO 9N43W AND 11N51W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N
TO 14N BETWEEN 26W AND 40W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH
CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A
1008 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
32N77W...TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO 26N90W IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TO THE NORTHWEST OF 30N80W 26N87W 22N93W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL FROM 21N TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N BETWEEN 79W AND
87W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 74W AND
77W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 70W AND 75W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...
KBBF...KGVX...KGHB...KMDJ...AND KVOA.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

NOTHING IS BEING REPORTED AT THIS MOMENT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W FROM CUBA TO
COLOMBIA. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS
TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN
CUBA FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W...IN HAITI FROM 18N TO
19N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W...AND ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...ACROSS JAMAICA...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 18N82W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
13N NORTHWARD...INCLUDING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...FROM JAMAICA
WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN
77W AND 83W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N80W IN PANAMA BEYOND 10N86W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 82W AND 90W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO
20N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W FROM CUBA TO
COLOMBIA. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS
TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN
CUBA FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W...IN HAITI FROM 18N TO
19N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W...AND ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS...OTHER FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING
REPORTED AROUND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. A RIDGE WILL
FOLLOW THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS
THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24
HOURS...AND THEN THE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO JAMAICA...TO
HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR
THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 26N51W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 26N51W
CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W
AND 62W. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 26N51W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 70W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 68W/69W FROM 20N TO 27N.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 62W AND 74W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...TO 15N30W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N13W TO
31N13W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 30N TO
32N BETWEEN 13W AND 19W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 22N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 34W AND 70W. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
ALONG 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
WTPZ32 KNHC 210542
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1100 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO BECOMING DISORGANIZED AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 110.2W
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL CONTINUE TO PASS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. POLO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ON SUNDAY...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130
KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
TONIGHT. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
SUNDAY MORNING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH
SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 210542
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1100 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO BECOMING DISORGANIZED AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 110.2W
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL CONTINUE TO PASS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. POLO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ON SUNDAY...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130
KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
TONIGHT. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
SUNDAY MORNING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH
SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
ACPN50 PHFO 210525
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SAT SEP 20 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST NEAR 10 MPH.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

$$

BIRCHARD




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 210504
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT DOMINGO 21 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA AMPLIA DE BAJA PRESION CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO NUBOSIDAD Y
AGUACEROS DESORGANIZADOS CERCA Y AL SURESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO
VERDE. LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES NO PARECEN SER FAVORABLES PARA
DESARROLLO...Y NO PARECE SER POSIBLE LA FORMACION DE ALGUN CICLON
TROPICAL. SIN EMBARGO...SE PRONOSTICA QUE LA BAJA PRESION SE MUEVA
LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NOROESTE Y PUEDE CAUSAR FUERTES LLUVIAS SOBRE
SECTORES DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DOS DIAS.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 210504
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT DOMINGO 21 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA AMPLIA DE BAJA PRESION CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO NUBOSIDAD Y
AGUACEROS DESORGANIZADOS CERCA Y AL SURESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO
VERDE. LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES NO PARECEN SER FAVORABLES PARA
DESARROLLO...Y NO PARECE SER POSIBLE LA FORMACION DE ALGUN CICLON
TROPICAL. SIN EMBARGO...SE PRONOSTICA QUE LA BAJA PRESION SE MUEVA
LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NOROESTE Y PUEDE CAUSAR FUERTES LLUVIAS SOBRE
SECTORES DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DOS DIAS.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210503
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Polo, located about a hundred miles south of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

A small area of disturbed weather is located a couple of hundred
miles south of the coast of Guatemala. Environmental conditions are
expected to become conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next several days while it moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210503
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Polo, located about a hundred miles south of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

A small area of disturbed weather is located a couple of hundred
miles south of the coast of Guatemala. Environmental conditions are
expected to become conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next several days while it moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABNT20 KNHC 210502
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
cloudiness and showers near and to the southeast of the Cape Verde
Islands.  Environmental conditions do not appear conducive for
development, and tropical cyclone formation is not likely. However,
the low is forecast to move slowly northwestward and could bring
heavy rainfall to portions of the Cape Verde Islands during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 210502
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
cloudiness and showers near and to the southeast of the Cape Verde
Islands.  Environmental conditions do not appear conducive for
development, and tropical cyclone formation is not likely. However,
the low is forecast to move slowly northwestward and could bring
heavy rainfall to portions of the Cape Verde Islands during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210239
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN SEP 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 21.6N 109.9W AT 21/0300 UTC
OR ABOUT 75 NM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING
W-NW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS 45 KT. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM W OF CENTER. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK
POLO WILL PASS S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC
AND FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W ALONG 11N93W 8N108W TO 9N116W
THEN RESUMES NEAR 13N121W ALONG 12N132W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N E OF 87W TO OVER
COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM ALONG COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 9N W OF
81W...N MONSOON TROUGH TO 13N BETWEEN 91W-97W...AND FROM 7N-10N
BETWEEN 94W-109W.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR COVERS THE AREA AT THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS N OF 25N W OF 115W AND FROM 14N-25N W OF 120W.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 120W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 27N137W TO
20N120W. THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE TROPICS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THROUGH SUN. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

$$
PAW


000
WTPZ32 KNHC 210231
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 109.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. POLO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ON SUNDAY...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130
KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH
SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210231
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0300 UTC SUN SEP 21 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 109.9W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  70SE  60SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 109.9W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 109.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 110.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 112.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.6N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.3N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.5N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 109.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210231
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0300 UTC SUN SEP 21 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 109.9W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  70SE  60SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 109.9W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 109.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 110.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 112.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.6N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.3N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.5N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 109.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 210231
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 109.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. POLO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ON SUNDAY...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130
KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH
SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210231
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0300 UTC SUN SEP 21 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 109.9W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  70SE  60SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 109.9W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 109.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 110.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 112.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.6N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.3N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.5N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 109.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210231
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0300 UTC SUN SEP 21 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 109.9W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  70SE  60SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 109.9W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 109.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 110.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 112.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.6N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.3N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.5N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 109.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 210231
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 109.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. POLO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ON SUNDAY...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130
KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH
SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210231
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0300 UTC SUN SEP 21 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 109.9W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  70SE  60SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 109.9W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 109.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 110.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 112.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.6N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.3N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.5N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 109.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210231
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0300 UTC SUN SEP 21 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 109.9W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  70SE  60SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 109.9W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 109.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 110.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 112.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.6N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.3N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.5N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 109.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 210231
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 109.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. POLO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ON SUNDAY...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130
KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH
SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
ACPN50 PHFO 202355
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SAT SEP 20 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU IS
MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN
THE AREA...CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

MORRISON





000
ACPN50 PHFO 202355
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SAT SEP 20 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU IS
MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN
THE AREA...CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

MORRISON






000
AXNT20 KNHC 202353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AND CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 13N23W TO 21N22W MOVING W AT 5 KT. THIS
SLOW MOVING WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE
ALONG THE MONSOON TROF S OF 19N. DRY SAHARAN AIR IS LOCATED N OF
19N ALONG THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-19N
BETWEEN 18W AND 26W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 10N54W TO 21N53W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD AND BEHIND THE WAVE
FROM 9N-18N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 49W AND 53W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 12N75W TO 22N74W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. MODERATE
MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
JAMAICA AND E CUBA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N16W TO
09N39W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N39W TO 09N51W. OTHER THAN
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 26W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER N MEXICO AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SE
CONUS. LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE
WATERS OFF THE SE CONUS HAS HELPED TRANSITION A STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE GULF INTO A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
28N94W TO THE FL W COAST NEAR 27N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG AND WITHIN 200 MILES SOUTH OF THE
COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OUT ACROSS THE SE GULF AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. THESE FACTORS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SE GULF THROUGH SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PERSISTS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN
BASIN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGES...ONE ACROSS N MEXICO...AND THE
OTHER OVER THE W ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 27N72W. THIS DIFFLUENCE
IS INTERACTING WITH MODERATE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
MAY BE ENHANCED DUE TO A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN THE
GULF. CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. ANOTHER
REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE WINWARD
AND LEEWARD ISLANDS BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE W ATLANTIC
AND ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 15N43W.
THIS DIFFLUENCE IS INTERACTING WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE REGION OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH TO ENHANCE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE REGION OF DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT WESTWARD. A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE E CARIBBEAN
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE WINWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED WEST OF HISPANIOLA TODAY. MODERATE
MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AND IS SUPPORTING MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND AREAS. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS MODERATE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS
HISPANIOLA WHICH WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVES...REFER TO THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 25N51W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING UNDER
THIS LOW FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 47W AND 55W. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
IS LOCATED NEAR 30N78W MOVING NE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST
FROM THIS LOW AND CROSSES THE FL PENINSULA E COAST NEAR 28N81W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-34N
BETWEEN 69W AND 80W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OUT ACROSS S FL AND THE BAHAMAS. ENHANCED CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 202353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AND CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 13N23W TO 21N22W MOVING W AT 5 KT. THIS
SLOW MOVING WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE
ALONG THE MONSOON TROF S OF 19N. DRY SAHARAN AIR IS LOCATED N OF
19N ALONG THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-19N
BETWEEN 18W AND 26W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 10N54W TO 21N53W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD AND BEHIND THE WAVE
FROM 9N-18N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 49W AND 53W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 12N75W TO 22N74W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. MODERATE
MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
JAMAICA AND E CUBA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N16W TO
09N39W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N39W TO 09N51W. OTHER THAN
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 26W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER N MEXICO AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SE
CONUS. LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE
WATERS OFF THE SE CONUS HAS HELPED TRANSITION A STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE GULF INTO A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
28N94W TO THE FL W COAST NEAR 27N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG AND WITHIN 200 MILES SOUTH OF THE
COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OUT ACROSS THE SE GULF AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. THESE FACTORS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SE GULF THROUGH SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PERSISTS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN
BASIN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGES...ONE ACROSS N MEXICO...AND THE
OTHER OVER THE W ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 27N72W. THIS DIFFLUENCE
IS INTERACTING WITH MODERATE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
MAY BE ENHANCED DUE TO A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN THE
GULF. CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. ANOTHER
REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE WINWARD
AND LEEWARD ISLANDS BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE W ATLANTIC
AND ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 15N43W.
THIS DIFFLUENCE IS INTERACTING WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE REGION OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH TO ENHANCE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE REGION OF DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT WESTWARD. A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE E CARIBBEAN
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE WINWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED WEST OF HISPANIOLA TODAY. MODERATE
MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AND IS SUPPORTING MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND AREAS. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS MODERATE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS
HISPANIOLA WHICH WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVES...REFER TO THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 25N51W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING UNDER
THIS LOW FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 47W AND 55W. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
IS LOCATED NEAR 30N78W MOVING NE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST
FROM THIS LOW AND CROSSES THE FL PENINSULA E COAST NEAR 28N81W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-34N
BETWEEN 69W AND 80W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OUT ACROSS S FL AND THE BAHAMAS. ENHANCED CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 202353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AND CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 13N23W TO 21N22W MOVING W AT 5 KT. THIS
SLOW MOVING WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE
ALONG THE MONSOON TROF S OF 19N. DRY SAHARAN AIR IS LOCATED N OF
19N ALONG THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-19N
BETWEEN 18W AND 26W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 10N54W TO 21N53W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD AND BEHIND THE WAVE
FROM 9N-18N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 49W AND 53W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 12N75W TO 22N74W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. MODERATE
MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
JAMAICA AND E CUBA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N16W TO
09N39W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N39W TO 09N51W. OTHER THAN
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 26W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER N MEXICO AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SE
CONUS. LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE
WATERS OFF THE SE CONUS HAS HELPED TRANSITION A STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE GULF INTO A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
28N94W TO THE FL W COAST NEAR 27N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG AND WITHIN 200 MILES SOUTH OF THE
COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OUT ACROSS THE SE GULF AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. THESE FACTORS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SE GULF THROUGH SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PERSISTS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN
BASIN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGES...ONE ACROSS N MEXICO...AND THE
OTHER OVER THE W ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 27N72W. THIS DIFFLUENCE
IS INTERACTING WITH MODERATE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
MAY BE ENHANCED DUE TO A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN THE
GULF. CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. ANOTHER
REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE WINWARD
AND LEEWARD ISLANDS BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE W ATLANTIC
AND ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 15N43W.
THIS DIFFLUENCE IS INTERACTING WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE REGION OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH TO ENHANCE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE REGION OF DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT WESTWARD. A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE E CARIBBEAN
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE WINWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED WEST OF HISPANIOLA TODAY. MODERATE
MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AND IS SUPPORTING MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND AREAS. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS MODERATE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS
HISPANIOLA WHICH WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVES...REFER TO THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 25N51W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING UNDER
THIS LOW FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 47W AND 55W. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
IS LOCATED NEAR 30N78W MOVING NE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST
FROM THIS LOW AND CROSSES THE FL PENINSULA E COAST NEAR 28N81W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-34N
BETWEEN 69W AND 80W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OUT ACROSS S FL AND THE BAHAMAS. ENHANCED CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 202353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AND CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 13N23W TO 21N22W MOVING W AT 5 KT. THIS
SLOW MOVING WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE
ALONG THE MONSOON TROF S OF 19N. DRY SAHARAN AIR IS LOCATED N OF
19N ALONG THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-19N
BETWEEN 18W AND 26W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 10N54W TO 21N53W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD AND BEHIND THE WAVE
FROM 9N-18N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 49W AND 53W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 12N75W TO 22N74W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. MODERATE
MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
JAMAICA AND E CUBA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N16W TO
09N39W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N39W TO 09N51W. OTHER THAN
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 26W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER N MEXICO AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SE
CONUS. LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE
WATERS OFF THE SE CONUS HAS HELPED TRANSITION A STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE GULF INTO A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
28N94W TO THE FL W COAST NEAR 27N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG AND WITHIN 200 MILES SOUTH OF THE
COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OUT ACROSS THE SE GULF AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. THESE FACTORS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SE GULF THROUGH SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PERSISTS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN
BASIN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGES...ONE ACROSS N MEXICO...AND THE
OTHER OVER THE W ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 27N72W. THIS DIFFLUENCE
IS INTERACTING WITH MODERATE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
MAY BE ENHANCED DUE TO A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN THE
GULF. CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. ANOTHER
REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE WINWARD
AND LEEWARD ISLANDS BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE W ATLANTIC
AND ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 15N43W.
THIS DIFFLUENCE IS INTERACTING WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE REGION OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH TO ENHANCE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE REGION OF DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT WESTWARD. A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE E CARIBBEAN
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE WINWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED WEST OF HISPANIOLA TODAY. MODERATE
MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AND IS SUPPORTING MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND AREAS. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS MODERATE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS
HISPANIOLA WHICH WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVES...REFER TO THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 25N51W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING UNDER
THIS LOW FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 47W AND 55W. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
IS LOCATED NEAR 30N78W MOVING NE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST
FROM THIS LOW AND CROSSES THE FL PENINSULA E COAST NEAR 28N81W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-34N
BETWEEN 69W AND 80W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OUT ACROSS S FL AND THE BAHAMAS. ENHANCED CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 202338
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
500 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO PASSING SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 109.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST THIS EVENING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER
WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. POLO REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...
AND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. POLO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW SUNDAY
NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 202338
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
500 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO PASSING SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 109.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST THIS EVENING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER
WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. POLO REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...
AND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. POLO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW SUNDAY
NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 202337
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT SABADO 20 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA ELONGADA DE BAJA PRESION CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO NUBOSIDAD Y
AGUACEROS DESORGANIZADOS CERCA Y AL SUR DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE.
NO PARECEN SER CONDUCENTES PARA DESARROLLO LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES...Y NO PARECE SER POSIBLE LA FORMACION DE ALGUN CICLON
TROPICAL. SIN EMBARGO...SE PRONOSTICA QUE LA BAJA PRESION DEBE
MOVERSE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NOROESTE Y PUEDE CAUSAR FUERTES LLUVIAS
SOBRE PORCIONES DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DOS
DIAS.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO. *
PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BERG





000
ABNT20 KNHC 202325
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
cloudiness and showers near and to the southeast of the Cape Verde
Islands.  Environmental conditions do not appear conducive for
development, and tropical cyclone formation is not likely.
However, the low is forecast to move slowly northwestward and could
bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Cape Verde Islands during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg


000
ABNT20 KNHC 202325
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
cloudiness and showers near and to the southeast of the Cape Verde
Islands.  Environmental conditions do not appear conducive for
development, and tropical cyclone formation is not likely.
However, the low is forecast to move slowly northwestward and could
bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Cape Verde Islands during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202301
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Polo, located about a hundred miles south of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of disturbed weather located a couple hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to become
conducive for gradual development of this system during the next
several days while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202301
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Polo, located about a hundred miles south of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of disturbed weather located a couple hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to become
conducive for gradual development of this system during the next
several days while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202301
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Polo, located about a hundred miles south of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of disturbed weather located a couple hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to become
conducive for gradual development of this system during the next
several days while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202301
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Polo, located about a hundred miles south of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of disturbed weather located a couple hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to become
conducive for gradual development of this system during the next
several days while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202045
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 21.2N 109.4W AT 20/2100 UTC
OR ABOUT 105 NM S-SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MOVING NW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS 50 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM
OF LINE FROM 18N109W TO 22N111W. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK POLO
WILL PASS S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUN. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST
ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W ALONG 11N92W TO 8N109W THEN
RESUMES NEAR 16N121W ALONG 12N130W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 4N TO OVER PANAMA
BETWEEN 78W-82W...N OF 6N TO MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 85W-108W...
AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 108W-113W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM MONSOON TROUGH TO 13N BETWEEN 86W-97W.

...DISCUSSION...

BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES COVER THE AREA W OF 115W WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS N OF
25N W OF 115W AND FROM 14N-25N W OF 120W.

A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 125W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N140W TO 23N125W. THIS RIDGE IS
MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICS N OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO COULD RESULT
IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202045
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 21.2N 109.4W AT 20/2100 UTC
OR ABOUT 105 NM S-SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MOVING NW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS 50 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM
OF LINE FROM 18N109W TO 22N111W. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK POLO
WILL PASS S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUN. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST
ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W ALONG 11N92W TO 8N109W THEN
RESUMES NEAR 16N121W ALONG 12N130W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 4N TO OVER PANAMA
BETWEEN 78W-82W...N OF 6N TO MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 85W-108W...
AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 108W-113W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM MONSOON TROUGH TO 13N BETWEEN 86W-97W.

...DISCUSSION...

BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES COVER THE AREA W OF 115W WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS N OF
25N W OF 115W AND FROM 14N-25N W OF 120W.

A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 125W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N140W TO 23N125W. THIS RIDGE IS
MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICS N OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO COULD RESULT
IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.

$$
PAW


000
WTPZ32 KNHC 202037
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 109.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.4 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER
WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. POLO REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...
AND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS
COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 202037
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 109.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.4 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER
WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. POLO REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...
AND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS
COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 202035
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
2100 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 109.4W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  80SE  70SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 109.4W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 109.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  50SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 111.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.3N 113.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.0N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.5N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 20.5N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 109.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 201826
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT SABADO 20 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA ELONGADA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A MEDIO CAMINO ENTRE EL
OESTE DE AFRICA Y LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO
AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS DESORGANIZADOS. SE ESPERA QUE LOS VIENTOS EN
LOS NIVELES SUPERIORES SE TORNEN MUCHA MAS DESFAVORABLE PARA SU
DESARROLLO...Y LA FORMACION DE UN CICLON TROPICAL PARECE BIEN POCO
PROBABLE. ESTA BAJA DEBE MOVERSE GENERALMENTE HACIA EL NOROESTE Y
PUEDEN TRAER FUERTES LLUVIAS A PORCIONES DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE
MAS TARDE EN EL FIN DE SEMANA.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO. *
PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN





000
ABNT20 KNHC 201818
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated area of low pressure located midway between the west
coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Upper-level winds are
expected to become increasingly unfavorable for development, and
tropical cyclone formation appears unlikely. This low should move
generally northwestward and could bring heavy rainfall to portions
of the Cape Verde Islands later this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
ABNT20 KNHC 201818
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated area of low pressure located midway between the west
coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Upper-level winds are
expected to become increasingly unfavorable for development, and
tropical cyclone formation appears unlikely. This low should move
generally northwestward and could bring heavy rainfall to portions
of the Cape Verde Islands later this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
ABNT20 KNHC 201818
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated area of low pressure located midway between the west
coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Upper-level winds are
expected to become increasingly unfavorable for development, and
tropical cyclone formation appears unlikely. This low should move
generally northwestward and could bring heavy rainfall to portions
of the Cape Verde Islands later this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
ABNT20 KNHC 201818
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated area of low pressure located midway between the west
coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Upper-level winds are
expected to become increasingly unfavorable for development, and
tropical cyclone formation appears unlikely. This low should move
generally northwestward and could bring heavy rainfall to portions
of the Cape Verde Islands later this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
ACPN50 PHFO 201755
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SAT SEP 20 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU IS
MOVING TO THE WEST AT 10 MPH. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP NEAR THIS SYSTEM...CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE TROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.


$$

MORRISON






000
ACPN50 PHFO 201755
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SAT SEP 20 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU IS
MOVING TO THE WEST AT 10 MPH. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP NEAR THIS SYSTEM...CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE TROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.


$$

MORRISON





000
AXNT20 KNHC 201743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N21W TO THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N22W.  THE
WAVE IS MOVING SLOWLY AT AROUND 5 KT. METEOSAT SAL IMAGERY SHOWS
BOTH DUST AND DRY AIR IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION TO THE AREA NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH MAINLY S OF 16N
BETWEEN 18W-24W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N52W TO 10N53W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-
19N BETWEEN 49W-53W. ELSEWHERE... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
300 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 21N73W TO 12N74W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. ALTHOUGH MODERATE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE...NO
CONVECTION IS PRESENT DUE TO DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N18W TO
09N39W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N39W TO 10N49W. OTHER THAN
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 26W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN US EXTENDING TO
THE ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF. TO THE WEST...AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND EXTENDING TO THE WESTERN
GULF WATERS. THESE FEATURES ARE KEEPING A DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
MOST OF THE BASIN. AT LOW LEVELS...A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC TO THE GULF NEAR 26N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
REMAINS S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 97W-82W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR
A 1012MB SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N80W
BRINGING ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE EASTERN GULF ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PERSISTS ACROSS THE NORTH-WESTERN HALF OF
THE CARIBBEAN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 11N77W N OF
PANAMA INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW S OF CUBA NEAR 18N82W.
DESPITE THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN
DUE TO DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE TROPICAL
WAVE OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA...REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS PRESENT ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH N OF
PANAMA SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF
11N BETWEEN 76W-82W. EXPECT THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ADVECTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING.

...HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS W HAITI WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATER
TODAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME
HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVES...REFER TO THE SECTION
ABOVE. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N42W PAIRED WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 24N51W KEEPING A DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE W ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
THE COAST OF LOUISIANA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE NW
ATLANTIC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS PRECEDING THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE E GULF WATERS TO 28N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-36N W OF 68W. A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N36W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N80W BRINGING ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 201743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N21W TO THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N22W.  THE
WAVE IS MOVING SLOWLY AT AROUND 5 KT. METEOSAT SAL IMAGERY SHOWS
BOTH DUST AND DRY AIR IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION TO THE AREA NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH MAINLY S OF 16N
BETWEEN 18W-24W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N52W TO 10N53W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-
19N BETWEEN 49W-53W. ELSEWHERE... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
300 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 21N73W TO 12N74W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. ALTHOUGH MODERATE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE...NO
CONVECTION IS PRESENT DUE TO DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N18W TO
09N39W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N39W TO 10N49W. OTHER THAN
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 26W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN US EXTENDING TO
THE ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF. TO THE WEST...AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND EXTENDING TO THE WESTERN
GULF WATERS. THESE FEATURES ARE KEEPING A DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
MOST OF THE BASIN. AT LOW LEVELS...A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC TO THE GULF NEAR 26N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
REMAINS S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 97W-82W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR
A 1012MB SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N80W
BRINGING ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE EASTERN GULF ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PERSISTS ACROSS THE NORTH-WESTERN HALF OF
THE CARIBBEAN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 11N77W N OF
PANAMA INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW S OF CUBA NEAR 18N82W.
DESPITE THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN
DUE TO DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE TROPICAL
WAVE OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA...REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS PRESENT ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH N OF
PANAMA SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF
11N BETWEEN 76W-82W. EXPECT THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ADVECTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING.

...HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS W HAITI WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATER
TODAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME
HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVES...REFER TO THE SECTION
ABOVE. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N42W PAIRED WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 24N51W KEEPING A DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE W ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
THE COAST OF LOUISIANA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE NW
ATLANTIC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS PRECEDING THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE E GULF WATERS TO 28N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-36N W OF 68W. A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N36W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N80W BRINGING ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201741
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Polo, located a little over a hundred miles south-southeast
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of disturbed weather has formed a couple of hundred miles
south of the coast of Guatemala and is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are expected
to become conducive for gradual development of this system during
the next several days while it moves slowly westward or west-
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201741
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Polo, located a little over a hundred miles south-southeast
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of disturbed weather has formed a couple of hundred miles
south of the coast of Guatemala and is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are expected
to become conducive for gradual development of this system during
the next several days while it moves slowly westward or west-
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201741
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Polo, located a little over a hundred miles south-southeast
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of disturbed weather has formed a couple of hundred miles
south of the coast of Guatemala and is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are expected
to become conducive for gradual development of this system during
the next several days while it moves slowly westward or west-
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201741
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Polo, located a little over a hundred miles south-southeast
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of disturbed weather has formed a couple of hundred miles
south of the coast of Guatemala and is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are expected
to become conducive for gradual development of this system during
the next several days while it moves slowly westward or west-
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
WTPZ32 KNHC 201736
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 109.2W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD
BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  POLO REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...
AND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 201736
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 109.2W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD
BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  POLO REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...
AND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201527
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM POLO LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 109.0W OR ABOUT 150
MILES SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT AT
1500 UTC SEP 20. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT
1000 MB. POLO IS MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ARE AT 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.

STRONG NE WIND SHEAR IS EXPOSING THE CENTER TO THE E OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM
OVER W SEMICIRCLE. POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES
OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
PACIFIC  COAST OF MEXICO FROM 20N-24N...INCLUDING BOTH MAINLAND
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS CAN CONTRIBUTE TO THE GENERATION OF LIFE
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SEE THE LATEST
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC
AND FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 13N99W THEN RESUMES AT 16N120W TO
12N130W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM
5N-11N BETWEEN 80W-111W.


...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA WITH AXIS FROM 30N134W TO 20N140W. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVLE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N132W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR
13N133W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 15N W OF 117W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N138W TO
15N128W. THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE NE-E TRADES ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 120W AND TO THE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT BETWEEN
120W AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON
SUN...ACCOMPANIED BY 4-6 FT.

$$
DGS



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 201431
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...WEAKENING POLO EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 109.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD
BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  POLO REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 201431
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1500 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 109.0W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  80SE  70SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 109.0W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 108.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.3N 109.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  50SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.9N 111.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.3N 112.5W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.0N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 21.5N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 20.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 109.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





000
WTPZ22 KNHC 201431
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1500 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 109.0W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  80SE  70SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 109.0W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 108.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.3N 109.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  50SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.9N 111.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.3N 112.5W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.0N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 21.5N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 20.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 109.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 201431
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...WEAKENING POLO EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 109.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD
BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  POLO REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 201431
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1500 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 109.0W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  80SE  70SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 109.0W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 108.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.3N 109.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  50SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.9N 111.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.3N 112.5W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.0N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 21.5N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 20.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 109.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 201431
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...WEAKENING POLO EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 109.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD
BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  POLO REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 201254
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT SABADO 20 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS SE HAN CONCENTRADO MAS EN ASOCIACION CON UN
AREA AMPLIA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A UNOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL
ESTE SURESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. SIN EMBARGO...DESARROLLO DE
ESTE SISTEMA ES POCO PROBABLE DEBIDO A LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES
ALTOS QUE CADA VEZ SON MENOS FAVORABLES. ESTA BAJA PRESION DEBE
MOVERSE GENERALMENTE HACIA EL NOROESTE Y PUDIERA TRAER LLUVIA FUERTE
A SECTORES DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE ESTE FIN DE SEMANA.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 201254
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT SABADO 20 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS SE HAN CONCENTRADO MAS EN ASOCIACION CON UN
AREA AMPLIA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A UNOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL
ESTE SURESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. SIN EMBARGO...DESARROLLO DE
ESTE SISTEMA ES POCO PROBABLE DEBIDO A LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES
ALTOS QUE CADA VEZ SON MENOS FAVORABLES. ESTA BAJA PRESION DEBE
MOVERSE GENERALMENTE HACIA EL NOROESTE Y PUDIERA TRAER LLUVIA FUERTE
A SECTORES DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE ESTE FIN DE SEMANA.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN





000
AXNT20 KNHC 201201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR
13N. THE WAVE HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD DURING THE LAST 12
HOURS OR SO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 18W AND 22W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE...RELATED TO THE TROPICAL
WAVE...THE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AND THE MONSOON
TROUGH...FROM 6N TO 17N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N49W 15N52W 10N53W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 12N
BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 23N BETWEEN 43W AND 55W.

A TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS-TO-HAITI-TO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W FROM 23N SOUTHWARD. THE
WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA AND ITS BORDER WITH COLOMBIA...INCLUDING IN LAKE
MARACAIBO...FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W. THE NUMEROUS
STRONG THAT WAS IN HAITI AND IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT SIX
HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
13N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W...TO THE 1008 MB LOW CENTER...TO 1030W AND
10N38W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N38W TO 11N50. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N
TO 13N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE...RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE...THE
1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE 22W/23W TROPICAL
WAVE...AND THE MONSOON TROUGH...FROM 6N TO 17N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT REACHES
32N58W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 32N58W TO 30N70W...TO
NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W...AND CONTINUING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
27N73W...ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO 26N95W IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
27N TO 32N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 67W AND 69W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 22N TO 28N. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...
KMZG...KBQX...KGVX...KVAF...KCRH...KVQT....KATP...KMDJ...KSPR...
KIKT...KMIS...AND KDLP.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED...IN TEXAS IN WESLACO AND
EDINBURG...AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN CORPUS CHRISTI...FROM
VICTORIA TO PORT LAVACA WITH DRIZZLE AND TO PALACIOS...IN
FLORIDA...FROM PANAMA CITY TO MARIANNA TO TALLAHASSEE AND
PERRY...RAIN HAS STOPPED FOR THE MOMENT IN BROOKSVILLE. RAIN IS
BEING REPORTED IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING
CITIES/COMMUNITIES...TO SARASOTA AND IN FORT MYERS...AND IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN MARATHON.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
22N70W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 17N71W...TO LAKE MARACAIBO IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15
KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN HAITI...IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI COASTAL WATERS FROM 17N TO
19N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W...AND IN LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...ACROSS JAMAICA...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 18N62W...TO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...COVERING
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
AND LOCALLY STRONG FROM 9N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND 70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N72W IN COLOMBIA TO 8N82W IN
PANAMA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 79W
AND 84W ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF PANAMA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N SOUTHWARD FROM 76W
WESTWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...

A TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS-TO-HAITI-TO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W FROM 23N SOUTHWARD. THE
WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA AND ITS BORDER WITH COLOMBIA...INCLUDING IN LAKE
MARACAIBO...FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W. THE NUMEROUS
STRONG THAT WAS IN HAITI AND IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT SIX
HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
13N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS...OTHER FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AROUND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH
THE CURRENT RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ON TOP OF SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA AND THE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30
HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA RIDGE WILL PUSH
NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS
SCENARIO WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH...AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...BY THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N50W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.
FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 44W AND 62W.

A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N65W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
21N TO 25N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 30N
BETWEEN 57W AND 70W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...TO 14N30W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N18W TO
31N19W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 17W AND 20W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 31N34W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
30N50W...TO 24N68W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 201201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR
13N. THE WAVE HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD DURING THE LAST 12
HOURS OR SO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 18W AND 22W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE...RELATED TO THE TROPICAL
WAVE...THE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AND THE MONSOON
TROUGH...FROM 6N TO 17N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N49W 15N52W 10N53W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 12N
BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 23N BETWEEN 43W AND 55W.

A TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS-TO-HAITI-TO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W FROM 23N SOUTHWARD. THE
WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA AND ITS BORDER WITH COLOMBIA...INCLUDING IN LAKE
MARACAIBO...FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W. THE NUMEROUS
STRONG THAT WAS IN HAITI AND IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT SIX
HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
13N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W...TO THE 1008 MB LOW CENTER...TO 1030W AND
10N38W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N38W TO 11N50. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N
TO 13N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE...RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE...THE
1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE 22W/23W TROPICAL
WAVE...AND THE MONSOON TROUGH...FROM 6N TO 17N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT REACHES
32N58W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 32N58W TO 30N70W...TO
NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W...AND CONTINUING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
27N73W...ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO 26N95W IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
27N TO 32N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 67W AND 69W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 22N TO 28N. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...
KMZG...KBQX...KGVX...KVAF...KCRH...KVQT....KATP...KMDJ...KSPR...
KIKT...KMIS...AND KDLP.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED...IN TEXAS IN WESLACO AND
EDINBURG...AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN CORPUS CHRISTI...FROM
VICTORIA TO PORT LAVACA WITH DRIZZLE AND TO PALACIOS...IN
FLORIDA...FROM PANAMA CITY TO MARIANNA TO TALLAHASSEE AND
PERRY...RAIN HAS STOPPED FOR THE MOMENT IN BROOKSVILLE. RAIN IS
BEING REPORTED IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING
CITIES/COMMUNITIES...TO SARASOTA AND IN FORT MYERS...AND IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN MARATHON.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
22N70W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 17N71W...TO LAKE MARACAIBO IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15
KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN HAITI...IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI COASTAL WATERS FROM 17N TO
19N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W...AND IN LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...ACROSS JAMAICA...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 18N62W...TO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...COVERING
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
AND LOCALLY STRONG FROM 9N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND 70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N72W IN COLOMBIA TO 8N82W IN
PANAMA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 79W
AND 84W ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF PANAMA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N SOUTHWARD FROM 76W
WESTWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...

A TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS-TO-HAITI-TO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W FROM 23N SOUTHWARD. THE
WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA AND ITS BORDER WITH COLOMBIA...INCLUDING IN LAKE
MARACAIBO...FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W. THE NUMEROUS
STRONG THAT WAS IN HAITI AND IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT SIX
HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
13N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS...OTHER FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AROUND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH
THE CURRENT RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ON TOP OF SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA AND THE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30
HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA RIDGE WILL PUSH
NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS
SCENARIO WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH...AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...BY THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N50W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.
FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 44W AND 62W.

A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N65W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
21N TO 25N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 30N
BETWEEN 57W AND 70W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...TO 14N30W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N18W TO
31N19W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 17W AND 20W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 31N34W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
30N50W...TO 24N68W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
ACPN50 PHFO 201150
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SAT SEP 20 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 420 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
HONOLULU IS MOVING TO THE WEST AT 10 MPH. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS SYSTEM...CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE TROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.


$$

REYNES





000
ABNT20 KNHC 201140
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated in
association with an elongated area of low pressure located a couple
hundred miles east-southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. However,
development of this system is becoming less likely due to
increasingly unfavorable upper-level winds.  This low should move
generally northwestward and could bring heavy rainfall to portions
of the Cape Verde Islands later this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABNT20 KNHC 201140
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated in
association with an elongated area of low pressure located a couple
hundred miles east-southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. However,
development of this system is becoming less likely due to
increasingly unfavorable upper-level winds.  This low should move
generally northwestward and could bring heavy rainfall to portions
of the Cape Verde Islands later this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201140
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Polo, located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  The Weather
Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland, has written the last
advisory on the remnants of Odile.

An area of low pressure could develop early next week a few hundred
miles south or southeast of southeastern Mexico. After that time,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
gradual development while this system moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201140
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Polo, located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  The Weather
Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland, has written the last
advisory on the remnants of Odile.

An area of low pressure could develop early next week a few hundred
miles south or southeast of southeastern Mexico. After that time,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
gradual development while this system moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 201131
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
500 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO FORECAST TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 108.8W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.  HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER
WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS POLO
REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE RAINS COULD
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTPZ35 KWNH 201042
TCPEP5

REMNANTS OF ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 41...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD EP152014
300 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND WESTERN TEXAS...

SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE CIRCULATION


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND MOST OF WEST TEXAS.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...THERE WAS NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE
CIRCULATION FOR ODILE. THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM ODILE CONTINUES
TO BRING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND INTO WEST TEXAS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
THAT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.  THE AREAL
COVERAGE HAD DECREASED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.  DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER IN NORTHWESTERN PART OF TEXAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING BACK WESTWARD INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
BY MONDAY.

HAZARDS
-------
RAINFALL...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF TEXAS THROUGH
MONDAY. THESE RAINS COULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE ALL NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO
MITIGATE THESE POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING SITUATIONS.


RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 12 AM MDT

...ARIZONA...
HEREFORD 9.0 SW                      5.03
SIERRA VISTA 9.2 SSE                 4.85
EPHRAIM WASH                         3.78
DOUGLAS 7.3 WNW                      3.30
CORNUDAS 8.7 WSW                     3.17
CLUFF RANCH                          3.15
PORTRERO CANYON                      3.07
DOUGLAS BISBEE INTL ARPT             3.05
NOGALES INTL ARPT                    3.01
FORT HUACHUCA                        2.79
DAN SADDLE                           2.44
DAVIDSON CANYON AT I-10              2.09
FALCON FIELD                         2.01
ITALIAN TRAP (REDINGTON PASS)        1.93
FRYE MESA RESERVOIR                  1.77
SAN SIMON 2.6 S                      1.65
DAN SADDLE (UPPER CDO)               1.65
SAFFORD MUNI ARPT                    1.44

...NEW MEXICO...
COLUMBUS 20.1 W                      5.40
CARLSBAD 17.1 NW                     5.33
WHITES CITY 3 W                      5.04
RODEO 2.4 N                          4.88
CARLSBAD NORTH 15.5 NW               4.76
CLOVERDALE                           4.31
DEMING MUNI ARPT                     4.26
CARLSBAD CO-OP                       4.16
MOGOLLON 3 WSW                       4.13
HOBBS 5NW                            3.86
GLENWOOD                             3.63
CHAPARRAL 0.4 SE                     3.50
PINE SPRINGS                         3.43
LA LUZ 4.3 ENE                       3.34
BONITO LAKE 6 WSW                    3.10
SAN ANTONIO 25.6 SSW                 3.06
BOSQUE DEL APACHE REFUGE 19 SW       3.06
PECOS RIVER  NR GRANDFALLS           2.90
LAS CRUCES INTL ARPT                 2.64
COLUMBUS 1.0 NW                      2.37
DEMING 4.0 SE                        2.25
HILLSBORO 0.1 ESE                    2.23
LA JOYA 2 WNW                        2.15

...TEXAS...
FLUVANNA 3 W                         5.63
PLAINVIEW 4 SSW                      4.31
OLTON 0.2W                           3.97
GAIL 2ESE                            3.86
POST 1NE                             3.49
MULESHOE 1.2N                        3.49
EL PASO 7.6SE                        3.47
PINE SPRINGS                         3.43
AMHERST 1NE                          3.34

GUADALUPE PASS                       3.04

MIDLAND 4 ENE                        3.00
KELP 3 SE                            3.00
THE PINERY RAWS                      2.44
BIG SPRING 1 ESE                     2.25
MONTANA VISTA 4 NE                   2.20


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER FOR THIS SYSTEM. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS STORM.

FORECASTER KREKELER
$$





000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200950
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM POLO LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 108.6W OR ABOUT 185
MILES S-SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT
AT 0900 UTC SEP 20. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT
997 MB. POLO IS MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 06 KT...AND IS EXPECTED
TO TURN MORE W-NW IN RESPONSE TO A LOW LEVEL RIDGE. POLO WILL
PASS S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ARE AT 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.

STRONG NE WIND SHEAR IS EXPOSING THE CENTER TO THE E OF
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION THAT IS CURRENTLY
OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM OVER W SEMICIRCLE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ALSO OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF 17.5N110W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITHIN 60 NM OF 25N108W. POLO IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT
IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO FROM 17-24N...INCLUDING BOTH MAINLAND MEXICO AND
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS CAN CONTRIBUTE TO THE GENERATION OF LIFE
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SEE THE LATEST
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC
AND FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
BETWEEN 08-10N TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 08N83W...
THEN TURNS NW TO 11N92W...THEN TURNS W-SW TO 09N123W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH TURNS
NW TO BEYOND 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
06N77W TO 09N86W TO 09N96W TO 09N113W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
MEXICO FROM 86-100W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 29N135W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 16N122W. THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING NE-E 10-
15 KT TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND TO
THE W OF 120W. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SE TO NEAR
28N133W ON TUE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW
WATERS BEGINNING LATE SUN NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE INITIALLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A SW-W-WNW 10 KT WIND SHIFT. THE WEAK FRONT
WILL REACH FROM 32N134W TO TO 26N134W LATE TUE AND THEN IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ALONG A LINE FROM 32N128W TO 26N135W LATE
WED. BY THEN A SECONDARY NORTHWESTERLY 15 KT SURGE WILL PUSH NW
SWELLS INTO THE AREA WHERE THEY WILL MIX WITH LONG PERIOD SE
SWELL...RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING 8-12 FT ACROSS THE WATERS NW
OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT...WITH THE MAXIMUM SEAS ALONG 31N. THIS
SECONDARY SURGE WILL REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA LATE THU WITH NW FLOW INCREASING TO 20 KT AND SEAS
BUILDING 7-9 FT IN MIXING NW AND SE SWELL.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200950
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM POLO LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 108.6W OR ABOUT 185
MILES S-SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT
AT 0900 UTC SEP 20. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT
997 MB. POLO IS MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 06 KT...AND IS EXPECTED
TO TURN MORE W-NW IN RESPONSE TO A LOW LEVEL RIDGE. POLO WILL
PASS S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ARE AT 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.

STRONG NE WIND SHEAR IS EXPOSING THE CENTER TO THE E OF
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION THAT IS CURRENTLY
OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM OVER W SEMICIRCLE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ALSO OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF 17.5N110W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITHIN 60 NM OF 25N108W. POLO IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT
IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO FROM 17-24N...INCLUDING BOTH MAINLAND MEXICO AND
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS CAN CONTRIBUTE TO THE GENERATION OF LIFE
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SEE THE LATEST
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC
AND FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
BETWEEN 08-10N TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 08N83W...
THEN TURNS NW TO 11N92W...THEN TURNS W-SW TO 09N123W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH TURNS
NW TO BEYOND 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
06N77W TO 09N86W TO 09N96W TO 09N113W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED
OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
MEXICO FROM 86-100W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 29N135W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 16N122W. THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING NE-E 10-
15 KT TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND TO
THE W OF 120W. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SE TO NEAR
28N133W ON TUE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW
WATERS BEGINNING LATE SUN NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE INITIALLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A SW-W-WNW 10 KT WIND SHIFT. THE WEAK FRONT
WILL REACH FROM 32N134W TO TO 26N134W LATE TUE AND THEN IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ALONG A LINE FROM 32N128W TO 26N135W LATE
WED. BY THEN A SECONDARY NORTHWESTERLY 15 KT SURGE WILL PUSH NW
SWELLS INTO THE AREA WHERE THEY WILL MIX WITH LONG PERIOD SE
SWELL...RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING 8-12 FT ACROSS THE WATERS NW
OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT...WITH THE MAXIMUM SEAS ALONG 31N. THIS
SECONDARY SURGE WILL REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA LATE THU WITH NW FLOW INCREASING TO 20 KT AND SEAS
BUILDING 7-9 FT IN MIXING NW AND SE SWELL.

$$
NELSON


000
WTPZ35 KWNH 200843
TCPEP5

REMNANTS OF ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD EP152014
300 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND WESTERN TEXAS...

SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE CIRCULATION


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND MOST OF WEST TEXAS.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...THERE WAS NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE
CIRCULATION FOR ODILE. THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM ODILE CONTINUES
TO BRING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND INTO WEST TEXAS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
THAT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.  THE AREAL
COVERAGE HAD DECREASED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.  DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER IN NORTHWESTERN PART OF TEXAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING BACK WESTWARD INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
BY MONDAY.

HAZARDS
-------
RAINFALL...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF TEXAS THROUGH
MONDAY. THESE RAINS COULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE ALL NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO
MITIGATE THESE POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING SITUATIONS.


RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 12 AM MDT

...ARIZONA...
HEREFORD 9.0 SW                      5.03
SIERRA VISTA 9.2 SSE                 4.85
EPHRAIM WASH                         3.78
DOUGLAS 7.3 WNW                      3.30
CORNUDAS 8.7 WSW                     3.17
CLUFF RANCH                          3.15
PORTRERO CANYON                      3.07
DOUGLAS BISBEE INTL ARPT             3.05
NOGALES INTL ARPT                    3.01
FORT HUACHUCA                        2.79
DAN SADDLE                           2.44
DAVIDSON CANYON AT I-10              2.09
FALCON FIELD                         2.01
ITALIAN TRAP (REDINGTON PASS)        1.93
FRYE MESA RESERVOIR                  1.77
SAN SIMON 2.6 S                      1.65
DAN SADDLE (UPPER CDO)               1.65
SAFFORD MUNI ARPT                    1.44

...NEW MEXICO...
COLUMBUS 20.1 W                      5.40
CARLSBAD 17.1 NW                     5.33
WHITES CITY 3 W                      5.04
RODEO 2.4 N                          4.88
CARLSBAD NORTH 15.5 NW               4.76
CLOVERDALE                           4.31
DEMING MUNI ARPT                     4.26
CARLSBAD CO-OP                       4.16
MOGOLLON 3 WSW                       4.13
HOBBS 5NW                            3.86
GLENWOOD                             3.63
CHAPARRAL 0.4 SE                     3.50
PINE SPRINGS                         3.43
LA LUZ 4.3 ENE                       3.34
BONITO LAKE 6 WSW                    3.10
SAN ANTONIO 25.6 SSW                 3.06
BOSQUE DEL APACHE REFUGE 19 SW       3.06
PECOS RIVER  NR GRANDFALLS           2.90
LAS CRUCES INTL ARPT                 2.64
COLUMBUS 1.0 NW                      2.37
DEMING 4.0 SE                        2.25
HILLSBORO 0.1 ESE                    2.23
LA JOYA 2 WNW                        2.15

...TEXAS...
FLUVANNA 3 W                         5.63
PLAINVIEW 4 SSW                      4.31
GAIL 2ESE                            3.86
POST 1NE                             3.49
PINE SPRINGS                         3.43
AMHERST 1NE                          3.34
EL PASO 8 E                          3.11
GUADALUPE PASS                       3.04
EL PASO INTL ARPT                    3.02
MIDLAND 4 ENE                        3.00
KELP 3 SE                            3.00
THE PINERY RAWS                      2.44
BIG SPRING 1 ESE                     2.25
MONTANA VISTA 4 NE                   2.20
ODESSA-SCHLEMEYER FIELD              1.38
LUBBOCK INTL ARPT                    1.26


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER FOR THIS SYSTEM. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS STORM.

FORECASTER KREKELER
$$





000
WTPZ32 KNHC 200833
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 108.6W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER
WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS POLO REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS...AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TODAY.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE RAINS COULD
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 200833
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 108.6W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER
WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS POLO REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS...AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TODAY.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE RAINS COULD
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 200833
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 108.6W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER
WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS POLO REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS...AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TODAY.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE RAINS COULD
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 200833
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 108.6W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER
WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS POLO REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS...AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TODAY.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE RAINS COULD
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 200831
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0900 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 108.6W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  80SE  70SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 108.6W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 108.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.1N 109.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.8N 110.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.2N 112.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.5N 113.2W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.5N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 21.5N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 20.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 108.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 200831
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0900 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 108.6W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  80SE  70SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 108.6W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 108.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.1N 109.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.8N 110.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.2N 112.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.5N 113.2W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.5N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 21.5N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 20.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 108.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN





000
AXNT20 KNHC 200605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR
13N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 18W AND 22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG ELSEWHERE...RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE...THE 1008 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AND THE MONSOON TROUGH...FROM 6N TO 13N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 42W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N48W 15N51W 10N52W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND
54W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 8N TO 22N BETWEEN 44W AND 54W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
22N70W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 17N71W...TO LAKE MARACAIBO IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15
KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN HAITI...IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI COASTAL WATERS FROM 17N TO
19N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W...AND IN LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
SENEGAL AND GAMBIA NEAR 13N17W...TO THE 1008 MB LOW CENTER...TO
9N30W AND 10N37W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N37W TO 10N45W AND
12N50W...11N54W...INTO NORTHERN GUYANA NEAR 8N60W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N/33N ALONG 60W...TO 31N64W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N64W TO 30N70W...TO NORTHERN
FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W...TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND CONTINUING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO...AND TO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 28N75W...TO SOUTH
FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
28N90W...AND TO 27N95W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W...IN
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 84W AND 85W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W
24N70W...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
20N TO 29N.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...
KGVX...KEMK...KCRH...KVQT...KGHB...KGRY...KATP...KMDJ...KSPR...
KDLP...AND KXPY.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED...IN TEXAS IN WESLACO AND
MCALLEN...IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL AREA...AND IN PORT
LAVACA...IN FLORIDA...LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN
BROOKSVILLE...IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING
CITIES/COMMUNITIES...AND IN PUNTA GORDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
22N70W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 17N71W...TO LAKE MARACAIBO IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15
KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN HAITI...IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI COASTAL WATERS FROM 17N TO
19N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W...AND IN LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...ACROSS JAMAICA...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 18N62W...TO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...COVERING
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 8N TO 15N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN
60W AND 65W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N74W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS EASTERN
PANAMA...BEYOND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE
COLOMBIA FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W...FROM
COLOMBIA/PANAMA TO 11N BETWEEN THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THAT IS
ALONG 76W AND 79W...AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM 79W WESTWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
22N70W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 17N71W...TO LAKE MARACAIBO IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15
KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN HAITI...IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI COASTAL WATERS FROM 17N TO
19N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W...AND IN LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS...OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AROUND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH
THE CURRENT RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ON TOP OF SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA AND THE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30
HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA RIDGE WILL PUSH
NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS
SCENARIO WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH...AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...BY THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N50W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.
FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 45W AND 62W.

A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N65W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
21N TO 25N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN
62W AND 68W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...TO 14N30W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO TO 31N17W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO EITHER TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 24N20W 27N30W 29N42W...TO A 1022 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N50W...TO 28N58W AND 21N66W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 200605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR
13N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 18W AND 22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG ELSEWHERE...RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE...THE 1008 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AND THE MONSOON TROUGH...FROM 6N TO 13N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 42W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N48W 15N51W 10N52W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND
54W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 8N TO 22N BETWEEN 44W AND 54W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
22N70W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 17N71W...TO LAKE MARACAIBO IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15
KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN HAITI...IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI COASTAL WATERS FROM 17N TO
19N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W...AND IN LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
SENEGAL AND GAMBIA NEAR 13N17W...TO THE 1008 MB LOW CENTER...TO
9N30W AND 10N37W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N37W TO 10N45W AND
12N50W...11N54W...INTO NORTHERN GUYANA NEAR 8N60W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N/33N ALONG 60W...TO 31N64W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N64W TO 30N70W...TO NORTHERN
FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W...TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND CONTINUING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO...AND TO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 28N75W...TO SOUTH
FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
28N90W...AND TO 27N95W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W...IN
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 84W AND 85W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W
24N70W...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
20N TO 29N.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...
KGVX...KEMK...KCRH...KVQT...KGHB...KGRY...KATP...KMDJ...KSPR...
KDLP...AND KXPY.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED...IN TEXAS IN WESLACO AND
MCALLEN...IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL AREA...AND IN PORT
LAVACA...IN FLORIDA...LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN
BROOKSVILLE...IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING
CITIES/COMMUNITIES...AND IN PUNTA GORDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
22N70W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 17N71W...TO LAKE MARACAIBO IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15
KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN HAITI...IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI COASTAL WATERS FROM 17N TO
19N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W...AND IN LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...ACROSS JAMAICA...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 18N62W...TO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...COVERING
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 8N TO 15N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN
60W AND 65W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N74W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS EASTERN
PANAMA...BEYOND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE
COLOMBIA FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W...FROM
COLOMBIA/PANAMA TO 11N BETWEEN THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THAT IS
ALONG 76W AND 79W...AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM 79W WESTWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
22N70W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 17N71W...TO LAKE MARACAIBO IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15
KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN HAITI...IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI COASTAL WATERS FROM 17N TO
19N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W...AND IN LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS...OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AROUND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH
THE CURRENT RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ON TOP OF SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA AND THE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30
HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA RIDGE WILL PUSH
NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS
SCENARIO WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH...AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...BY THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N50W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.
FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 45W AND 62W.

A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N65W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
21N TO 25N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN
62W AND 68W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...TO 14N30W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO TO 31N17W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO EITHER TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 24N20W 27N30W 29N42W...TO A 1022 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N50W...TO 28N58W AND 21N66W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
ACPN50 PHFO 200545
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI SEP 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 480 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
HONOLULU IS MOVING TO THE WEST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS SYSTEM...CONDITIONS ARE
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE TROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.


$$

REYNES





000
ACPN50 PHFO 200545
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI SEP 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 480 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
HONOLULU IS MOVING TO THE WEST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS SYSTEM...CONDITIONS ARE
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE TROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.


$$

REYNES






000
WTPZ32 KNHC 200538
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1100 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 108.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT OR ON
SATURDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
POLO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO INTO SATURDAY...AND WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 200538
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1100 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 108.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT OR ON
SATURDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
POLO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO INTO SATURDAY...AND WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 200532
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT SABADO 20 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

AREA DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CONTINUA ASOCIADA CON UN
AREA AMPLIA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA A UNOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL
SURESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. AUNQUE ALGUN DESARROLLO DE
ESTE SISTEMA ES POSIBLE DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS...SE ESPERA QUE
LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS SE TORNEN MENOS FAVORABLES PARA ESE
MOMENTO. ESTA BAJA PRESION DEBE MOVERSE GENERALMENTE HACIA EL
NOROESTE Y PUDIERA TRAER LLUVIA FUERTE A SECTORES DE LAS ISLAS DE
CABO VERDE ESTE FIN DE SEMANA.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN




000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200530
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Polo, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The Weather
Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland, is issuing advisories
on the remnants of Odile, located over the southwestern United
States.

An area of low pressure could develop later this weekend or early
next week a few hundred miles south or southeast of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for some gradual development of this system later next week as it
moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven




000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200530
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Polo, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The Weather
Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland, is issuing advisories
on the remnants of Odile, located over the southwestern United
States.

An area of low pressure could develop later this weekend or early
next week a few hundred miles south or southeast of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for some gradual development of this system later next week as it
moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABNT20 KNHC 200529
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles
southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. While some development of this
system is possible during the next day or two, upper-level winds are
expected to become less conducive after that time. This low should
move generally northwestward and could bring heavy rainfall to
portions of the Cape Verde Islands this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABNT20 KNHC 200529
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles
southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. While some development of this
system is possible during the next day or two, upper-level winds are
expected to become less conducive after that time. This low should
move generally northwestward and could bring heavy rainfall to
portions of the Cape Verde Islands this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven




000
WTPZ35 KWNH 200256
TCPEP5

REMNANTS OF ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD EP152014
900 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND WESTERN TEXAS...

SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE CIRCULATION


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND MOST OF WEST TEXAS.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...THERE WAS NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE
CIRCULATION FOR ODILE. THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM ODILE CONTINUES
TO BRING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND INTO WEST TEXAS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
THAT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.  THE AREAL
COVERAGE HAD DECREASED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.  DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER IN NORTHWESTERN PART OF TEXAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING BACK WESTWARD INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
BY MONDAY.

HAZARDS
-------
RAINFALL...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF TEXAS THROUGH
MONDAY. THESE RAINS COULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE ALL NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO
MITIGATE THESE POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING SITUATIONS.


RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 8 PM MDT

...ARIZONA...
HEREFORD 9.0 SW                      5.03
SIERRA VISTA 9.2 SSE                 4.85
EPHRAIM WASH                         3.78
DOUGLAS 7.3 WNW                      3.30
CORNUDAS 8.7 WSW                     3.17
CLUFF RANCH                          3.15
PORTRERO CANYON                      3.07
DOUGLAS BISBEE INTL ARPT             3.05
NOGALES INTL ARPT                    3.01
FORT HUACHUCA                        2.79
DAN SADDLE                           2.44
DAVIDSON CANYON AT I-10              2.09
FALCON FIELD                         2.01
ITALIAN TRAP (REDINGTON PASS)        1.93
FRYE MESA RESERVOIR                  1.77
SAN SIMON 2.6 S                      1.65
DAN SADDLE (UPPER CDO)               1.65
SAFFORD MUNI ARPT                    1.44

...NEW MEXICO...
COLUMBUS 20.1 W                      5.40
CARLSBAD 17.1 NW                     5.33
WHITES CITY 3 W                      5.04
RODEO 2.4 N                          4.88
CARLSBAD NORTH 15.5 NW               4.76
CLOVERDALE                           4.31
DEMING MUNI ARPT                     4.26
CARLSBAD CO-OP                       4.16
MOGOLLON 3 WSW                       4.13
HOBBS 5NW                            3.86
GLENWOOD                             3.63
CHAPARRAL 0.4 SE                     3.50
PINE SPRINGS                         3.43
LA LUZ 4.3 ENE                       3.34
BONITO LAKE 6 WSW                    3.10
SAN ANTONIO 25.6 SSW                 3.06
BOSQUE DEL APACHE REFUGE 19 SW       3.06
PECOS RIVER  NR GRANDFALLS           2.90
LAS CRUCES INTL ARPT                 2.64
COLUMBUS 1.0 NW                      2.37
DEMING 4.0 SE                        2.25
HILLSBORO 0.1 ESE                    2.23
LA JOYA 2 WNW                        2.15

...TEXAS...
FLUVANNA 3 W                         5.63
PLAINVIEW 4 SSW                      4.31
GAIL 2ESE                            3.86
POST 1NE                             3.49
AMHERST 1NE                          3.34
EL PASO 8 E                          3.11
GUADALUPE PASS                       3.04
EL PASO INTL ARPT                    3.02
MIDLAND 4 ENE                        3.00
KELP 3 SE                            3.00
PINE SPRINGS                         2.47
THE PINERY RAWS                      2.44
BIG SPRING 1 ESE                     2.25
MONTANA VISTA 4 NE                   2.20
ODESSA-SCHLEMEYER FIELD              1.38
LUBBOCK INTL ARPT                    1.26


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT  300 AM MDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.

FORECASTER KONG
$$





000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200238
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 20.0N 108.2W AT 20/0300 UTC
OR ABOUT 145 NM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 200 NM S-
SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NW AT 7 KT.
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 108W AND 112W. ON
THIS FORECAST TRACK POLO WILL PASS S OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SAT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST ADVISORY
UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N78W ALONG 10N86W 10N95W 12N103W
13N125W TO 12N131W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS N OF 6N TO OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN 80W-
86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-
12N BETWEEN 91W-97W AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 105W-110W.

...DISCUSSION...
BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES COVER THE AREA W OF 115W WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS N OF
25N W OF 110W AND FROM 12N-25N W OF 118W.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W ANCHORED
WELL N OF THE AREA. THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

LONG PERIOD SW SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL HAS CROSSED THE EQUATOR
AND WILL REACH THE COAST FROM PANAMA TO S MEXICO SAT.

$$
PAW



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 200231
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO SLOWLY WEAKENING...
...FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 108.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND POLO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON
SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO INTO SATURDAY...AND WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 200231
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO SLOWLY WEAKENING...
...FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 108.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND POLO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON
SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO INTO SATURDAY...AND WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 200230
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0300 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 108.2W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  50SE  30SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  80SE  70SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 108.2W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 107.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.7N 109.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.3N 110.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.9N 111.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.3N 112.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.4N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 22.0N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 21.0N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 108.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 200230
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0300 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 108.2W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  50SE  30SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  80SE  70SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 108.2W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 107.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.7N 109.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.3N 110.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.9N 111.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.3N 112.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.4N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 22.0N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 21.0N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 108.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN





000
AXNT20 KNHC 200003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 19/2100 UTC...TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR
39.5N 37.5W OR ABOUT 413 NM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN
AZORES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. FURTHER WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED...AND EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE LATER THIS WEEKEND. MOST CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH EDOUARD HAS DISSIPATED. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N21W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 13N21W TO 10N21W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING AT 5-10 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS A MOIST AREA BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND WEST
AFRICA. FURTHER N...METEOSAT SAL IMAGERY SHOWS BOTH DUST AND DRY
AIR N OF 18N E OF 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-
14N BETWEEN 13W-22W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N46W TO 10N49W...MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA FROM 6N-22N
BETWEEN 42W-55W. FURTHER N...METEOSAT SAL IMAGERY SHOWS BOTH
DUST AND DRY AIR N OF 22N BETWEEN 40W-60W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 44W-50W.
ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE
AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N69W TO 12N70W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATE STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA.
ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE
AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO
A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 13N21W TO 9N30W TO 9N37W. THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 9N37W TO 10N45W AND CONTINUES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE
FROM 10N48W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. OTHER THAN
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 37W-40W...
AND FROM 8N-17N BETWEEN 50W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA
NEAR 26N80W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W TO
THE NW GULF NEAR 27N94W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 80W-97W TO INCLUDE FLORIDA.
FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS..AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N MEXICO WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ENTIRE GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A 1010 MB LOW TO FORM OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 30N78W AND A SURFACE TROUGH TO EXTEND SW FROM THE LOW TO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TO S TEXAS WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPORTING TRADES OF 5-15 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER NW VENEZUELA... N COLOMBIA
...THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER E
CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO OVER THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF JAMAICA NEAR
18N82W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...WHILE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION ADVECTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO
THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATE STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS OVER
HISPANIOLA DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO
BE OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

HURRICANE EDOUARD AND TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE MAIN FEATURES
ACROSS THE BASIN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVES
SECTIONS ABOVE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO N
FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE. A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 28N76W TO S FLORIDA AT 26N80W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 24N BETWEEN 70W-80W TO
INCLUDE THE N BAHAMAS. A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N49W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. ANOTHER
1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N35W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N50W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NW OF THE CENTER FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 60W-
70 W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A 1010 MB LOW TO BE OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N78W AND A WARM FRONT TO EXTEND E FROM THE LOW
TO 32N70W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE W ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 200003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 19/2100 UTC...TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR
39.5N 37.5W OR ABOUT 413 NM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN
AZORES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. FURTHER WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED...AND EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE LATER THIS WEEKEND. MOST CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH EDOUARD HAS DISSIPATED. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N21W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 13N21W TO 10N21W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING AT 5-10 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS A MOIST AREA BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND WEST
AFRICA. FURTHER N...METEOSAT SAL IMAGERY SHOWS BOTH DUST AND DRY
AIR N OF 18N E OF 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-
14N BETWEEN 13W-22W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N46W TO 10N49W...MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA FROM 6N-22N
BETWEEN 42W-55W. FURTHER N...METEOSAT SAL IMAGERY SHOWS BOTH
DUST AND DRY AIR N OF 22N BETWEEN 40W-60W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 44W-50W.
ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE
AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N69W TO 12N70W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATE STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA.
ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE
AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO
A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 13N21W TO 9N30W TO 9N37W. THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 9N37W TO 10N45W AND CONTINUES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE
FROM 10N48W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. OTHER THAN
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 37W-40W...
AND FROM 8N-17N BETWEEN 50W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA
NEAR 26N80W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W TO
THE NW GULF NEAR 27N94W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 80W-97W TO INCLUDE FLORIDA.
FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS..AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N MEXICO WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ENTIRE GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A 1010 MB LOW TO FORM OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 30N78W AND A SURFACE TROUGH TO EXTEND SW FROM THE LOW TO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TO S TEXAS WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPORTING TRADES OF 5-15 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER NW VENEZUELA... N COLOMBIA
...THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER E
CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO OVER THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF JAMAICA NEAR
18N82W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...WHILE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION ADVECTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO
THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATE STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS OVER
HISPANIOLA DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO
BE OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

HURRICANE EDOUARD AND TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE MAIN FEATURES
ACROSS THE BASIN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVES
SECTIONS ABOVE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO N
FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE. A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 28N76W TO S FLORIDA AT 26N80W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 24N BETWEEN 70W-80W TO
INCLUDE THE N BAHAMAS. A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N49W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. ANOTHER
1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N35W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N50W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NW OF THE CENTER FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 60W-
70 W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A 1010 MB LOW TO BE OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N78W AND A WARM FRONT TO EXTEND E FROM THE LOW
TO 32N70W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE W ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 192350
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
500 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHEAST...
...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 107.9W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THIS EVENING...AND PASS SOUTH OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 192350
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
500 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHEAST...
...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 107.9W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THIS EVENING...AND PASS SOUTH OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
ACPN50 PHFO 192345
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST FRI SEP 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
HONOLULU IS MOVING TO THE WEST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS SYSTEM...CONDITIONS ARE
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE TROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

OTHERWISE NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

BRAVENDER




000
ACPN50 PHFO 192345
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST FRI SEP 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
HONOLULU IS MOVING TO THE WEST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS SYSTEM...CONDITIONS ARE
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE TROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

OTHERWISE NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

BRAVENDER




000
ACPN50 PHFO 192345
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST FRI SEP 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
HONOLULU IS MOVING TO THE WEST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS SYSTEM...CONDITIONS ARE
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE TROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

OTHERWISE NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

BRAVENDER




000
ACPN50 PHFO 192345
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST FRI SEP 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
HONOLULU IS MOVING TO THE WEST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS SYSTEM...CONDITIONS ARE
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE TROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

OTHERWISE NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

BRAVENDER




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 192322
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT VIERNES 19 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES HA EMITIDO LA ULTIMA ADVERTENCIA
SOBRE EL CICLON POST-TROPICAL EDOUARD...LOCALIZADO A VARIOS CIENTOS
DE MILLAS AL OESTE DEL OESTE DE LAS AZORES. SE PUEDE ENCONTRAR
INFORMACION ADICIONAL SOBRE EDOUARD EN LOS PRONOSTICOS MARITIMOS DE
ALTA MAR EMITIDOS POR EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS DESROGANIZADOS ESTAN ASOCIADOS CON UN AREA
AMPLIA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADO A UNOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL
SURESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. MIENTRAS ALGUN DESARROLLO DE
ESTE SISTEMA ES POSIBLE DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS...SE ESPERA QUE
LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS SE TORNEN MENOS FAVORABLES PARA ESE
TIEMPO. ESTA BAJA PRESION DEBE MOVERSE GENERALMENTE HACIA EL
NOROESTE Y PUEDE TRAER LLUVIA FUERTE A PORCIONES DE LAS ISLAS DE
CABO VERDE ESTE FIN DE SEMANA.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

&&

LOS PRONOSTICOS MARITIMOS DE ALTA MAR EMITIDOS POR EL SERVICIO
NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SE PUEDE ENCONTRAR BAJO AWIPS CON EL
ENCABEZAMIENTO NFDHSFAT1 Y BAJO WMO CON EL ENCABEZAMIENTO FZNT01
KWBC.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR LANDSEA





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 192322
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT VIERNES 19 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES HA EMITIDO LA ULTIMA ADVERTENCIA
SOBRE EL CICLON POST-TROPICAL EDOUARD...LOCALIZADO A VARIOS CIENTOS
DE MILLAS AL OESTE DEL OESTE DE LAS AZORES. SE PUEDE ENCONTRAR
INFORMACION ADICIONAL SOBRE EDOUARD EN LOS PRONOSTICOS MARITIMOS DE
ALTA MAR EMITIDOS POR EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS DESROGANIZADOS ESTAN ASOCIADOS CON UN AREA
AMPLIA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADO A UNOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL
SURESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. MIENTRAS ALGUN DESARROLLO DE
ESTE SISTEMA ES POSIBLE DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS...SE ESPERA QUE
LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS SE TORNEN MENOS FAVORABLES PARA ESE
TIEMPO. ESTA BAJA PRESION DEBE MOVERSE GENERALMENTE HACIA EL
NOROESTE Y PUEDE TRAER LLUVIA FUERTE A PORCIONES DE LAS ISLAS DE
CABO VERDE ESTE FIN DE SEMANA.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

&&

LOS PRONOSTICOS MARITIMOS DE ALTA MAR EMITIDOS POR EL SERVICIO
NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SE PUEDE ENCONTRAR BAJO AWIPS CON EL
ENCABEZAMIENTO NFDHSFAT1 Y BAJO WMO CON EL ENCABEZAMIENTO FZNT01
KWBC.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR LANDSEA





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 192322
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT VIERNES 19 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES HA EMITIDO LA ULTIMA ADVERTENCIA
SOBRE EL CICLON POST-TROPICAL EDOUARD...LOCALIZADO A VARIOS CIENTOS
DE MILLAS AL OESTE DEL OESTE DE LAS AZORES. SE PUEDE ENCONTRAR
INFORMACION ADICIONAL SOBRE EDOUARD EN LOS PRONOSTICOS MARITIMOS DE
ALTA MAR EMITIDOS POR EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS DESROGANIZADOS ESTAN ASOCIADOS CON UN AREA
AMPLIA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADO A UNOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL
SURESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. MIENTRAS ALGUN DESARROLLO DE
ESTE SISTEMA ES POSIBLE DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS...SE ESPERA QUE
LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS SE TORNEN MENOS FAVORABLES PARA ESE
TIEMPO. ESTA BAJA PRESION DEBE MOVERSE GENERALMENTE HACIA EL
NOROESTE Y PUEDE TRAER LLUVIA FUERTE A PORCIONES DE LAS ISLAS DE
CABO VERDE ESTE FIN DE SEMANA.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

&&

LOS PRONOSTICOS MARITIMOS DE ALTA MAR EMITIDOS POR EL SERVICIO
NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SE PUEDE ENCONTRAR BAJO AWIPS CON EL
ENCABEZAMIENTO NFDHSFAT1 Y BAJO WMO CON EL ENCABEZAMIENTO FZNT01
KWBC.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR LANDSEA





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 192322
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT VIERNES 19 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES HA EMITIDO LA ULTIMA ADVERTENCIA
SOBRE EL CICLON POST-TROPICAL EDOUARD...LOCALIZADO A VARIOS CIENTOS
DE MILLAS AL OESTE DEL OESTE DE LAS AZORES. SE PUEDE ENCONTRAR
INFORMACION ADICIONAL SOBRE EDOUARD EN LOS PRONOSTICOS MARITIMOS DE
ALTA MAR EMITIDOS POR EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS DESROGANIZADOS ESTAN ASOCIADOS CON UN AREA
AMPLIA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADO A UNOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL
SURESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE. MIENTRAS ALGUN DESARROLLO DE
ESTE SISTEMA ES POSIBLE DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS...SE ESPERA QUE
LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS SE TORNEN MENOS FAVORABLES PARA ESE
TIEMPO. ESTA BAJA PRESION DEBE MOVERSE GENERALMENTE HACIA EL
NOROESTE Y PUEDE TRAER LLUVIA FUERTE A PORCIONES DE LAS ISLAS DE
CABO VERDE ESTE FIN DE SEMANA.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

&&

LOS PRONOSTICOS MARITIMOS DE ALTA MAR EMITIDOS POR EL SERVICIO
NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SE PUEDE ENCONTRAR BAJO AWIPS CON EL
ENCABEZAMIENTO NFDHSFAT1 Y BAJO WMO CON EL ENCABEZAMIENTO FZNT01
KWBC.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR LANDSEA





000
ABNT20 KNHC 192307
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Edouard, located a few hundred miles west of
the western Azores. Additional information on Edouard can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad
area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles southeast of the
Cape Verde Islands. While some development of this system is
possible during the next day or two, upper-level winds are expected
to become less conducive after that time. This low should move
generally northwestward and could bring heavy rainfall to portions
of the Cape Verde Islands this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Landsea


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192307
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Polo, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The Weather
Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland, is issuing advisories
on the remnants of Odile, located over the southwestern United
States.

An area of low pressure could develop later this weekend or early
next week a few hundred miles south or southeast of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for some gradual development of this system later next week as it
moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABNT20 KNHC 192307
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Edouard, located a few hundred miles west of
the western Azores. Additional information on Edouard can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad
area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles southeast of the
Cape Verde Islands. While some development of this system is
possible during the next day or two, upper-level winds are expected
to become less conducive after that time. This low should move
generally northwestward and could bring heavy rainfall to portions
of the Cape Verde Islands this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Landsea



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192307
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Polo, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The Weather
Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland, is issuing advisories
on the remnants of Odile, located over the southwestern United
States.

An area of low pressure could develop later this weekend or early
next week a few hundred miles south or southeast of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for some gradual development of this system later next week as it
moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
WTPZ35 KWNH 192103
TCPEP5

REMNANTS OF ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD EP152014
300 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND WESTERN TEXAS...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE CIRCULATION


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND MOST OF WEST TEXAS.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...THERE WAS NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE
CIRCULATION FOR ODILE. THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM ODILE CONTINUES
TO BRING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND INTO WEST TEXAS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
THAT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.  DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN NORTHWESTERN PART OF TEXAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING BACK WESTWARD INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
BY MONDAY.

HAZARDS
-------
RAINFALL...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF TEXAS
THROUGH MONDAY. THESE RAINS COULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.  RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE ALL NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS TO MITIGATE THESE POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATIONS.


RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 2 PM MDT

...ARIZONA...
HEREFORD 9.0 SW                      5.03
SIERRA VISTA 9.2 SSE                 4.85
EPHRAIM WASH                         3.78
DOUGLAS 7.3 WNW                      3.30
CORNUDAS 8.7 WSW                     3.17
CLUFF RANCH                          3.15
PORTRERO CANYON                      3.07
DOUGLAS BISBEE INTL ARPT             3.05
NOGALES INTL ARPT                    3.01
FORT HUACHUCA                        2.79
DAN SADDLE                           2.44
DAVIDSON CANYON AT I-10              2.09
FALCON FIELD                         2.01
ITALIAN TRAP (REDINGTON PASS)        1.93
FRYE MESA RESERVOIR                  1.77
SAN SIMON 2.6 S                      1.65
DAN SADDLE (UPPER CDO)               1.65
SAFFORD MUNI ARPT                    1.44

...NEW MEXICO...
COLUMBUS 20.1 W                      5.40
CARLSBAD 17.1 NW                     5.33
WHITES CITY 3 W                      5.04
RODEO 2.4 N                          4.88
CARLSBAD NORTH 15.5 NW               4.76
CLOVERDALE                           4.31
DEMING MUNI ARPT                     4.26
CARLSBAD CO-OP                       4.16
MOGOLLON 3 WSW                       4.13
HOBBS 5NW                            3.86
GLENWOOD                             3.63
CHAPARRAL 0.4 SE                     3.50
PINE SPRINGS                         3.43
LA LUZ 4.3 ENE                       3.34
BONITO LAKE 6 WSW                    3.10
SAN ANTONIO 25.6 SSW                 3.06
BOSQUE DEL APACHE REFUGE 19 SW       3.06
PECOS RIVER  NR GRANDFALLS           2.90
LAS CRUCES INTL ARPT                 2.64
COLUMBUS 1.0 NW                      2.37
DEMING 4.0 SE                        2.25
HILLSBORO 0.1 ESE                    2.23
LA JOYA 2 WNW                        2.15

...TEXAS...
FLUVANNA 3 W                         5.63
PLAINVIEW 4 SSW                      4.31
GAIL 2ESE                            3.86
POST 1NE                             3.49
AMHERST 1NE                          3.34
EL PASO 8 E                          3.11
GUADALUPE PASS                       3.04
EL PASO INTL ARPT                    3.02
MIDLAND 4 ENE                        3.00
KELP 3 SE                            3.00
PINE SPRINGS                         2.47
THE PINERY RAWS                      2.44
BIG SPRING 1 ESE                     2.25
MONTANA VISTA 4 NE                   2.20
ODESSA-SCHLEMEYER FIELD              1.38
LUBBOCK INTL ARPT                    1.26


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT  900 PM MDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.

FORECASTER KONG
$$





000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192045
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100 UTC
OR ABOUT 150 NM W-SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 230 NM
S-SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NW AT 5 KT.
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS 75 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 107W-110W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 106W-112W. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE SW COAST
OF MEXICO TODAY AND PASS S OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON
SATURDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER
HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N78W ALONG 9N84W 10N96W 12N112W
14N122W TO 12N130W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 11N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N E
OF 80W TO COLOMBIA...FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 83W-95W...FROM 9N-11N
BETWEEN 95W-97W...FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 102W-110W.

...DISCUSSION...
BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES COVER THE AREA W OF 115W WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS N OF
25N W OF 110W AND FROM 12N-25N W OF 120W.

A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 125W ANCHORED WELL
N OF THE AREA. THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE TROPICS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

LONG PERIOD SW SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL HAS CROSSED THE EQUATOR
AND WILL REACH THE COAST FROM PANAMA TO S MEXICO SAT.

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192045
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100 UTC
OR ABOUT 150 NM W-SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 230 NM
S-SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NW AT 5 KT.
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS 75 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 107W-110W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 106W-112W. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE SW COAST
OF MEXICO TODAY AND PASS S OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON
SATURDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER
HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N78W ALONG 9N84W 10N96W 12N112W
14N122W TO 12N130W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 11N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N E
OF 80W TO COLOMBIA...FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 83W-95W...FROM 9N-11N
BETWEEN 95W-97W...FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 102W-110W.

...DISCUSSION...
BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES COVER THE AREA W OF 115W WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS N OF
25N W OF 110W AND FROM 12N-25N W OF 120W.

A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 125W ANCHORED WELL
N OF THE AREA. THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE TROPICS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

LONG PERIOD SW SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL HAS CROSSED THE EQUATOR
AND WILL REACH THE COAST FROM PANAMA TO S MEXICO SAT.

$$
PAW


000
WTPZ22 KNHC 192037
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

CORRECTED FOR INITIAL WIND GUSTS.

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.0N 108.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.7N 109.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.4N 111.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 22.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 22.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 108.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





000
WTPZ22 KNHC 192037
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

CORRECTED FOR INITIAL WIND GUSTS.

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.0N 108.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.7N 109.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.4N 111.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 22.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 22.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 108.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTNT31 KNHC 192031
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

...EDOUARD BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.5N 37.5W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.5 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/H. A GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION WITH INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND EDOUARD IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE LATER
THIS WEEKEND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON EDOUARD. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/HUFFMAN




000
WTNT31 KNHC 192031
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

...EDOUARD BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.5N 37.5W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.5 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/H. A GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION WITH INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND EDOUARD IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE LATER
THIS WEEKEND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON EDOUARD. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/HUFFMAN




000
WTNT31 KNHC 192031
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

...EDOUARD BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.5N 37.5W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.5 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/H. A GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION WITH INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND EDOUARD IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE LATER
THIS WEEKEND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON EDOUARD. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/HUFFMAN




000
WTNT31 KNHC 192031
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

...EDOUARD BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.5N 37.5W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.5 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/H. A GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION WITH INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND EDOUARD IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE LATER
THIS WEEKEND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON EDOUARD. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/HUFFMAN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 192031
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.0N 108.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.7N 109.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.4N 111.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 22.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 22.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 108.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 192031
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.0N 108.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.7N 109.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.4N 111.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 22.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 22.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 108.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 192031
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO RESUMES A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 108.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A GENERAL
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON
SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF JALISCO...ISLAS MARIAS AND SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR IN WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 192031
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO RESUMES A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 108.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A GENERAL
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON
SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF JALISCO...ISLAS MARIAS AND SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR IN WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 192031
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.0N 108.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.7N 109.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.4N 111.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 22.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 22.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 108.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 192031
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.0N 108.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.7N 109.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.4N 111.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 22.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 22.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 108.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 192031
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO RESUMES A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 108.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A GENERAL
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON
SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF JALISCO...ISLAS MARIAS AND SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR IN WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 192031
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO RESUMES A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 108.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A GENERAL
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON
SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF JALISCO...ISLAS MARIAS AND SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR IN WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 192031
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.0N 108.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.7N 109.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.4N 111.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 22.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 22.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 108.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 192031
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.0N 108.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.7N 109.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.4N 111.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 22.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 22.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 108.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 192031
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO RESUMES A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 108.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A GENERAL
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON
SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF JALISCO...ISLAS MARIAS AND SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR IN WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 192031
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO RESUMES A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 108.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A GENERAL
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON
SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF JALISCO...ISLAS MARIAS AND SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR IN WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 192031
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.0N 108.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.7N 109.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.4N 111.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 22.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 22.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 108.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 192031
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.0N 108.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.7N 109.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.4N 111.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 22.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 22.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 108.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 192031
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO RESUMES A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 108.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A GENERAL
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON
SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF JALISCO...ISLAS MARIAS AND SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR IN WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 192031
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO RESUMES A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 108.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A GENERAL
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON
SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF JALISCO...ISLAS MARIAS AND SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR IN WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTNT21 KNHC 192030
TCMAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N  37.5W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE 100SE  80SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..260NE 300SE 240SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N  37.5W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.5N  37.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 39.4N  36.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 39.0N  33.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 38.0N  31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 36.3N  30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.5N  37.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON EDOUARD. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/HUFFMAN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 191757
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT VIERNES 19 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE LA
TORMENTA TROPICAL EDOUARD...LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL
OESTE NOROESTE DEL OESTE DE LAS AZORES.

ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS EN ASOCIACION CON UN AREA AMPLIA
DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADO A UNOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL SURESTE DE
LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE HA CAMBIADO POCO EN ORGANIZACION ESTA
MANANA. MIENTRAS ALGUN DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA ES POSIBLE DURANTE
LOS PROXIMOS DIAS...SE ESPERA QUE LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS
SE TORNEN MENOS FAVORABLES PARA ESE TIEMPO. SE ESPERA QUE ESTA BAJA
PRESION SE MUEVA LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NOROESTE Y PUEDE TRAER LLUVIA
FUERTE A SECTORES DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE ESTE FIN DE SEMANA.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN/HUFFMAN




000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191752
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Polo, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  The Weather
Prediction Center in Washington, DC, is issuing advisories on the
remnants of Odile, located over the southwestern United States.

An area of low pressure could develop later this weekend or early
next week a few hundred miles south or southeast of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec.  Environmental conditions are conducive for some
gradual development later next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Huffman



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191752
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Polo, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  The Weather
Prediction Center in Washington, DC, is issuing advisories on the
remnants of Odile, located over the southwestern United States.

An area of low pressure could develop later this weekend or early
next week a few hundred miles south or southeast of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec.  Environmental conditions are conducive for some
gradual development later next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Huffman


000
ABNT20 KNHC 191751
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Edouard, located several hundred miles west of the western
Azores.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of
low pressure located a couple hundred miles southeast of the Cape
Verde Islands has changed little in organization this morning.
While some development of this system is possible during the next
day or two, upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive
after that time.  This low should move generally northwestward and
could bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Cape Verde Islands
this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Huffman



000
ABNT20 KNHC 191751
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Edouard, located several hundred miles west of the western
Azores.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of
low pressure located a couple hundred miles southeast of the Cape
Verde Islands has changed little in organization this morning.
While some development of this system is possible during the next
day or two, upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive
after that time.  This low should move generally northwestward and
could bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Cape Verde Islands
this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Huffman



000
ABNT20 KNHC 191751
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Edouard, located several hundred miles west of the western
Azores.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of
low pressure located a couple hundred miles southeast of the Cape
Verde Islands has changed little in organization this morning.
While some development of this system is possible during the next
day or two, upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive
after that time.  This low should move generally northwestward and
could bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Cape Verde Islands
this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Huffman



000
ABNT20 KNHC 191751
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Edouard, located several hundred miles west of the western
Azores.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of
low pressure located a couple hundred miles southeast of the Cape
Verde Islands has changed little in organization this morning.
While some development of this system is possible during the next
day or two, upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive
after that time.  This low should move generally northwestward and
could bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Cape Verde Islands
this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Huffman



000
ACPN50 PHFO 191745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST FRI SEP 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

BRAVENDER






000
ACPN50 PHFO 191745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST FRI SEP 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

BRAVENDER





000
WTPZ32 KNHC 191738
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1100 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO HESITATES BUT EXPECTED TO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 107.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST. POLO HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...
LATER TODAY. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS SOUTH OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION
TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF JALISCO...ISLAS MARIAS AND SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR IN WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 191738
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1100 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO HESITATES BUT EXPECTED TO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 107.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST. POLO HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...
LATER TODAY. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS SOUTH OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION
TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF JALISCO...ISLAS MARIAS AND SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR IN WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
AXNT20 KNHC 191730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 19/1500 UTC...TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR
39.5N 38.3W OR ABOUT 450 NM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN
AZORES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE LATER TODAY. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EDOUARD IS
VERY LIMITED TO AN AREA S OF 39N BETWEEN 32W-36W. SEE THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N20W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 26N76W TO 25N76W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING AT APPROXIMATELY 05-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 18W-24W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N44W TO 10N45W. THIS WAVE AXIS WAS REPOSITIONED
AS THE INVERTED V SATELLITE SIGNATURE BECAME MORE EVIDENT IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SUPPORTED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTICED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 42W-48W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS 26N80W...MOVING WEST AT 10
KT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE
LIMITING CONVECTION TO A FEW SHOWERS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 66W-
68W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N77W TO 25N77W TO 26N77W. THE
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 26N79W TO 25N79W. ASIDE FROM THE
CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG 26N BETWEEN 76W-77W AND BETWEEN 79W-80W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AT MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS PRESENT
ACROSS THE GULF AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN
US AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA WESTWARD TO SW LOUISIANA. THERE IS ALSO A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA EXTENDING TO THE EASTERN
GULF NEAR 27N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF E OF 83W N OF 27N. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DOMINATE THE GULF AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED FROM
THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR
18N85W. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING E OF PANAMA NEAR
11N77W. THESE SYSTEMS ARE KEEPING A DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER EASTERN
CUBA AND W HISPANIOLA. DESPITE THIS...ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
ALONG 26N BETWEEN 82W-82W IS VISIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA DUE TO A
MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
LOW IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS FEATURE FROM
09N-18N BETWEEN 57W-66W AS THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR DECREASES
OVER THIS AREA. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA SOMETIME THIS EVENING AND
ACROSS CUBA ON SATURDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ACROSS THE ISLAND AS DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
IS PREVAILING OVER THE REGION. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER
THE MONA PASSAGE WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
ISLAND LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE
WEST ATLC NEAR 60W. TO THE SE OF THIS TROUGH...A BROAD UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE WITH CENTERED NEAR 33N41W IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IN THE SW N ATLC THAT ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 27N W OF 80W. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED FROM 26N81W IN THE W GULF TO 27N81W
IN THE ATLC AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM E LOUSIANA
AND CONNECTS TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE ATLC NEAR 41N52W. FOR
CONVECTION RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVES...PLEASE REFER TO THE
SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...SURFACE RIDGING
AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 191730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 19/1500 UTC...TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR
39.5N 38.3W OR ABOUT 450 NM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN
AZORES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE LATER TODAY. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EDOUARD IS
VERY LIMITED TO AN AREA S OF 39N BETWEEN 32W-36W. SEE THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N20W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 26N76W TO 25N76W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING AT APPROXIMATELY 05-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 18W-24W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N44W TO 10N45W. THIS WAVE AXIS WAS REPOSITIONED
AS THE INVERTED V SATELLITE SIGNATURE BECAME MORE EVIDENT IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SUPPORTED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTICED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 42W-48W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS 26N80W...MOVING WEST AT 10
KT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE
LIMITING CONVECTION TO A FEW SHOWERS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 66W-
68W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N77W TO 25N77W TO 26N77W. THE
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 26N79W TO 25N79W. ASIDE FROM THE
CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG 26N BETWEEN 76W-77W AND BETWEEN 79W-80W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AT MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS PRESENT
ACROSS THE GULF AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN
US AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA WESTWARD TO SW LOUISIANA. THERE IS ALSO A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA EXTENDING TO THE EASTERN
GULF NEAR 27N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF E OF 83W N OF 27N. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DOMINATE THE GULF AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED FROM
THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR
18N85W. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING E OF PANAMA NEAR
11N77W. THESE SYSTEMS ARE KEEPING A DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER EASTERN
CUBA AND W HISPANIOLA. DESPITE THIS...ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
ALONG 26N BETWEEN 82W-82W IS VISIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA DUE TO A
MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
LOW IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS FEATURE FROM
09N-18N BETWEEN 57W-66W AS THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR DECREASES
OVER THIS AREA. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA SOMETIME THIS EVENING AND
ACROSS CUBA ON SATURDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ACROSS THE ISLAND AS DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
IS PREVAILING OVER THE REGION. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER
THE MONA PASSAGE WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
ISLAND LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE
WEST ATLC NEAR 60W. TO THE SE OF THIS TROUGH...A BROAD UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE WITH CENTERED NEAR 33N41W IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IN THE SW N ATLC THAT ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 27N W OF 80W. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED FROM 26N81W IN THE W GULF TO 27N81W
IN THE ATLC AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM E LOUSIANA
AND CONNECTS TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE ATLC NEAR 41N52W. FOR
CONVECTION RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVES...PLEASE REFER TO THE
SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...SURFACE RIDGING
AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191530
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM POLO LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.7W OR ABOUT 150 MILES
SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO...AND ABOUT 285 MILES SSE OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT 1500 UTC SEP
19. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 982 MB. POLO IS
MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 6 KT...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MOTION
THROUGH TONIGHT BUT SLOW SLIGHTLY. A TURN TO THE W-NW IS
EXPECTED ON SAT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT 55 KT
WITH GUSTS 55 KT.

NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION TO POLO IS FROM 15N-20N
BETWEEN 105W-111W. CONVECTION OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 21N AND 24N...AND
MAY RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES. SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM 17N TO 24N AND THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SWELLS
FROM THE STORM ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST ADVISORY
UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 6N77W TO 10N90W THEN RESUMES FROM 15N120W TO
12N131W. ITCZ FROM 12N131W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-16N BETWEEN 88W-99W AND IN
THE GULF OF PANAMA.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA WITH AXIS
FROM 32N125W TO 23N135W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE
AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 15N W OF 117W. AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 18N108W.
DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYLONE IS
ALLOWING OUTFLOW FOR TROPICAL STORM POLO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N140W TO
20N122W. THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE NE-E TRADES ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 120W AND TO THE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT BETWEEN
120W AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON
SUN...ACCOMPANIED BY 4-6 FT SEAS IN MIXING N AND S SWELL.

$$
DGS



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 191514
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  14 CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CORRECTED FOR INITIAL INTENSITY

... POLO FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 107.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS
SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF JALISCO...ISLAS MARIAS AND SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR IN WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 191514
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  14 CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CORRECTED FOR INITIAL INTENSITY

... POLO FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 107.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS
SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF JALISCO...ISLAS MARIAS AND SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR IN WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 191509
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1500 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

CORRECTED FOR INITIAL INTENSITY...

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.7W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.7W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 107.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.8N 108.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.7N 109.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.4N 110.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.7N 112.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 114.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 22.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 22.5N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 107.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ35 KWNH 191504
TCPEP5

REMNANTS OF ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD EP152014
900 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND WESTERN TEXAS...

SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE CIRCULATION


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND MOST OF WEST TEXAS.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...THERE WAS NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE
CIRCULATION FOR ODILE. THE REMNANT MOISTURE OF ODILE CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND INTO WEST TEXAS. NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT AN
ORGANIZED AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING IN EXTREME
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS. SCATTERED AREAS
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...WITH OCCASIONAL POCKETS OF HEAVIER
RAIN...WERE LOCATED IN PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS...THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAIN ENDING IN NEW MEXICO BY THIS EVENING AND IN TEXAS BY SATURDAY.

HAZARDS
-------
RAINFALL...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE RAINS
COULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.  RESIDENTS ARE
ADVISED TO TAKE ALL NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO MITIGATE THESE
POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING SITUATIONS.


RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 8 AM MDT

...ARIZONA...
EPHRAIM WASH                         3.78
DOUGLAS 7.3 WNW                      3.30
CLUFF RANCH                          3.15
HEREFORD 9.0 SW                      3.10
PORTRERO CANYON                      3.07
DOUGLAS BISBEE INTL ARPT             3.05
NOGALES INTL ARPT                    3.01
FORT HUACHUCA                        2.79
SIERRA VISTA 9.2 SSE                 2.63
DAN SADDLE                           2.44
DAVIDSON CANYON AT I-10              2.09
FALCON FIELD                         2.01
ITALIAN TRAP (REDINGTON PASS)        1.93
FRYE MESA RESERVOIR                  1.77
SAN SIMON 2.6 S                      1.65
DAN SADDLE (UPPER CDO)               1.65
SAFFORD MUNI ARPT                    1.44

...NEW MEXICO...
RODEO 2.4 N                          4.50
DEMING MUNI ARPT                     4.26
MOGOLLON 3 WSW                       4.13
GLENWOOD                             3.63
CHAPARRAL 0.4 SE                     3.50
LA LUZ 4.3 ENE                       3.34
BONITO LAKE 6 WSW                    3.10
SAN ANTONIO 25.6 SSW                 3.06
BOSQUE DEL APACHE REFUGE 19 SW       3.06
LAS CRUCES INTL ARPT                 2.64
COLUMBUS 1.0 NW                      2.37
DEMING 4.0 SE                        2.25
HILLSBORO 0.1 ESE                    2.23
LA JOYA 2 WNW                        2.15

...TEXAS...
FLUVANNA 3 W                         5.63
PLAINVIEW 4 SSW                      4.31
GAIL 2ESE                            3.86
POST 1NE                             3.49
AMHERST 1NE                          3.34
EL PASO 8 E                          3.11
GUADALUPE PASS                       3.04
EL PASO INTL ARPT                    3.02
MIDLAND 4 ENE                        3.00
KELP 3 SE                            3.00
PINE SPRINGS                         2.47
THE PINERY RAWS                      2.44
BIG SPRING 1 ESE                     2.25
MONTANA VISTA 4 NE                   2.20
ODESSA-SCHLEMEYER FIELD              1.38
LUBBOCK INTL ARPT                    1.26


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT  300 PM MDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.

FORECASTER MONARSKI
$$





000
WTNT21 KNHC 191455
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1500 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N  38.3W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE 100SE  80SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 280SE 280SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N  38.3W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.6N  38.4W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 39.6N  37.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  70SE  60SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 39.5N  35.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 38.9N  32.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 37.3N  30.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 33.0N  30.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.5N  38.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/HUFFMAN




000
WTNT21 KNHC 191455
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1500 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N  38.3W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE 100SE  80SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 280SE 280SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N  38.3W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.6N  38.4W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 39.6N  37.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  70SE  60SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 39.5N  35.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 38.9N  32.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 37.3N  30.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 33.0N  30.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.5N  38.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/HUFFMAN





000
WTNT31 KNHC 191455
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER  33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

...EDOUARD WEAKENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.5N 38.3W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.3 WEST. EDOUARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A GENERAL
EASTWARD TRACK WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED, AND EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY AND A REMNANT LOW BY
SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.33 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/HUFFMAN



000
WTNT31 KNHC 191455
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER  33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

...EDOUARD WEAKENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.5N 38.3W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.3 WEST. EDOUARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A GENERAL
EASTWARD TRACK WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED, AND EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY AND A REMNANT LOW BY
SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.33 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/HUFFMAN




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 191454
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

... POLO FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 107.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS
SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF JALISCO...ISLAS MARIAS AND SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR IN WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 191454
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1500 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.7W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.7W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 107.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.8N 108.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.7N 109.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.4N 110.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.7N 112.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 114.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 22.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 22.5N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 107.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





000
WTPZ22 KNHC 191454
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1500 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.7W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.7W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 107.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.8N 108.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.7N 109.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.4N 110.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.7N 112.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 114.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 22.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 22.5N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 107.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 191454
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

... POLO FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 107.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS
SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF JALISCO...ISLAS MARIAS AND SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR IN WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 191243
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT VIERNES 19 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE LA
TORMENTA TROPICAL EDOUARD...LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL
OESTE NOROESTE DEL OESTE DE LAS AZORES.

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS DESORGANIZADOS CONTINUARAN EN ASOCIACION CON UN
AREA AMPLIA DE BAJA PRESION ENTRE EL OESTE DE AFRICA Y LAS ISLAS DE
CABO VERDE. ALGUN DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA ES POSIBLE DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS DIAS ANTES DE QUE LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS SE
TORNEN MENOS FAVORABLES. SE ESPERA QUE ESTA BAJA PRESION SE MUEVA
LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE O NOROESTE Y PUEDE TRAER LLUVIA
FUERTE A SECTORES DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE ESTE FIN DE SEMANA.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

UN AREA NO TROPICAL DE BAJA PRESION PODRIA FORMARSE AFUERA DE LA
COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA. ESTE SISTEMA
TENDRA ALGUN POTENCIAL DE ADQUIRIR CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES O
SUBTROPICALES MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORESTE CERCA O MAR AFUERA
DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 191243
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT VIERNES 19 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE LA
TORMENTA TROPICAL EDOUARD...LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL
OESTE NOROESTE DEL OESTE DE LAS AZORES.

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS DESORGANIZADOS CONTINUARAN EN ASOCIACION CON UN
AREA AMPLIA DE BAJA PRESION ENTRE EL OESTE DE AFRICA Y LAS ISLAS DE
CABO VERDE. ALGUN DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA ES POSIBLE DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS DIAS ANTES DE QUE LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS SE
TORNEN MENOS FAVORABLES. SE ESPERA QUE ESTA BAJA PRESION SE MUEVA
LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE O NOROESTE Y PUEDE TRAER LLUVIA
FUERTE A SECTORES DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE ESTE FIN DE SEMANA.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

UN AREA NO TROPICAL DE BAJA PRESION PODRIA FORMARSE AFUERA DE LA
COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA. ESTE SISTEMA
TENDRA ALGUN POTENCIAL DE ADQUIRIR CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES O
SUBTROPICALES MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORESTE CERCA O MAR AFUERA
DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191148
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Polo, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  The Weather
Prediction Center in Washington, DC, is issuing advisories on the
remnants of Odile, located over the southwestern United States.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
ABNT20 KNHC 191148
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Edouard, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the
western Azores.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association
with a broad area of low pressure located between the west coast of
Africa and the Cape Verde Islands.  Some development of this system
is possible over the next few days before upper-level winds become
less conducive.  This low is expected to move slowly west-
northwestward or northwestward and could bring heavy rainfall to
portions of the Cape Verde Islands this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form off of the southeastern
coast of the United States over the weekend.  The system is now
expected to remain non-tropical (frontal) while it accelerates
northeastward a short distance off of the U.S. east coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191148
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Polo, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  The Weather
Prediction Center in Washington, DC, is issuing advisories on the
remnants of Odile, located over the southwestern United States.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
ABNT20 KNHC 191148
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Edouard, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the
western Azores.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association
with a broad area of low pressure located between the west coast of
Africa and the Cape Verde Islands.  Some development of this system
is possible over the next few days before upper-level winds become
less conducive.  This low is expected to move slowly west-
northwestward or northwestward and could bring heavy rainfall to
portions of the Cape Verde Islands this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form off of the southeastern
coast of the United States over the weekend.  The system is now
expected to remain non-tropical (frontal) while it accelerates
northeastward a short distance off of the U.S. east coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
ABNT20 KNHC 191148
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Edouard, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the
western Azores.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association
with a broad area of low pressure located between the west coast of
Africa and the Cape Verde Islands.  Some development of this system
is possible over the next few days before upper-level winds become
less conducive.  This low is expected to move slowly west-
northwestward or northwestward and could bring heavy rainfall to
portions of the Cape Verde Islands this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form off of the southeastern
coast of the United States over the weekend.  The system is now
expected to remain non-tropical (frontal) while it accelerates
northeastward a short distance off of the U.S. east coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191148
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Polo, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  The Weather
Prediction Center in Washington, DC, is issuing advisories on the
remnants of Odile, located over the southwestern United States.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABNT20 KNHC 191148
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Edouard, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the
western Azores.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association
with a broad area of low pressure located between the west coast of
Africa and the Cape Verde Islands.  Some development of this system
is possible over the next few days before upper-level winds become
less conducive.  This low is expected to move slowly west-
northwestward or northwestward and could bring heavy rainfall to
portions of the Cape Verde Islands this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form off of the southeastern
coast of the United States over the weekend.  The system is now
expected to remain non-tropical (frontal) while it accelerates
northeastward a short distance off of the U.S. east coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191148
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Polo, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  The Weather
Prediction Center in Washington, DC, is issuing advisories on the
remnants of Odile, located over the southwestern United States.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ACPN50 PHFO 191145
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST FRI SEP 19 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

LAU










000
WTPZ32 KNHC 191142
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
500 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

... POLO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 107.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...235 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY.  A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  POLO IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF COLIMA...NAYARIT AND JALISCO STATES IN
MEXICO.  THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 191142
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
500 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

... POLO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 107.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...235 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY.  A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  POLO IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF COLIMA...NAYARIT AND JALISCO STATES IN
MEXICO.  THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 191056
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 19/0900 UTC...TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR
39.8N 38.5W OR ABOUT 462 NM W-NW OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN
AZORES MOVING E AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND EDOUARD IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EDOUARD HAS REDUCED SIGNIFICANTLY AND
LIES SE OF THE CENTER FROM 34N-39N BETWEEN 33W-37W. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 17N18W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 12N19W TO 9N19W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KT. METEOSAT RGB AIRMASS IMAGERY SHOW
THICK HIGH CLOUDS N-NW OF THE LOW WHERE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED AS SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED TSTMS.
CONVECTION IN THE S-SW WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS LIMITED DUE TO SOME
DRY AIR AND DUST INTRUSION NOTED IN THE GOES-R SEVIRI DUST
PRODUCT AND THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N46W TO 8N48W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. SCATTERED
LOW TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THE WAVE EXCEPT NW OF THE
AXIS WHERE THE GOES-R DUST PRODUCT AND THE METEOSAT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR AND DUST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE AXIS AND 300 NM W OF THE AXIS S OF 11N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N66W TO 11N67W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. MOSTLY
MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IN THE
CARIBBEAN WITH PATCHES OF HIGH MOISTURE N OF 17N BETWEEN 65W-67W
WHERE SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OBSERVED. STRONG
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS HINDERING CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N16W TO
A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 12N19W TO 8N31W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
8N31W TO 9N45W...THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 9N49W TO
6N58W. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT CONVECTION SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS ACROSS THE GULF BEING
INFLUENCED BY LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W HAS ITS BASE REACHING
THE EASTERN GULF...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE SW N ATLC. THIS
TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA WESTWARD TO SW LOUISIANA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF E OF 91W N OF
23N. SURFACE TROUGHINESS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF ALONG
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL FUEL
RAINSHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

EXCEPT FOR SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND A PORTION OF THE NW
CARIBBEAN...MODERATE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DOMINATES IN
THE REGION ALONG WITH LIGHT TRADE WINDS. MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE WESTERN BASIN GENERATED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH W OF 80W
AND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED OVER HISPANIOLA
ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 18N W OF 80W. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN WHICH IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 17N BETWEEN
64W-68W. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ON THE SE BASIN S OF 15N E OF 65W BEING
SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH.
ELSEWHERE...STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPRESS CONVECTION. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FRIDAY AND ACROSS CUBA ON
SATURDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING AS DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR IS ON THE REGION. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO WILL START AFFECTING THE
WEATHER LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W WITH ITS BASE EXTENDING ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE SW N ATLC. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH...A
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IN THE SW N ATLC THAT ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 25N W OF 69W. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 29N73W TO 26N80W TO THE SE GULF.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE WHICH ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE SOUTHWARD SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 24N BETWEEN 64W-67W. SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 191056
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 19/0900 UTC...TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR
39.8N 38.5W OR ABOUT 462 NM W-NW OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN
AZORES MOVING E AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND EDOUARD IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EDOUARD HAS REDUCED SIGNIFICANTLY AND
LIES SE OF THE CENTER FROM 34N-39N BETWEEN 33W-37W. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 17N18W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 12N19W TO 9N19W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KT. METEOSAT RGB AIRMASS IMAGERY SHOW
THICK HIGH CLOUDS N-NW OF THE LOW WHERE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED AS SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED TSTMS.
CONVECTION IN THE S-SW WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS LIMITED DUE TO SOME
DRY AIR AND DUST INTRUSION NOTED IN THE GOES-R SEVIRI DUST
PRODUCT AND THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N46W TO 8N48W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. SCATTERED
LOW TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THE WAVE EXCEPT NW OF THE
AXIS WHERE THE GOES-R DUST PRODUCT AND THE METEOSAT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR AND DUST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE AXIS AND 300 NM W OF THE AXIS S OF 11N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N66W TO 11N67W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. MOSTLY
MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IN THE
CARIBBEAN WITH PATCHES OF HIGH MOISTURE N OF 17N BETWEEN 65W-67W
WHERE SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OBSERVED. STRONG
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS HINDERING CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N16W TO
A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 12N19W TO 8N31W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
8N31W TO 9N45W...THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 9N49W TO
6N58W. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT CONVECTION SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS ACROSS THE GULF BEING
INFLUENCED BY LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W HAS ITS BASE REACHING
THE EASTERN GULF...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE SW N ATLC. THIS
TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA WESTWARD TO SW LOUISIANA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF E OF 91W N OF
23N. SURFACE TROUGHINESS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF ALONG
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL FUEL
RAINSHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

EXCEPT FOR SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND A PORTION OF THE NW
CARIBBEAN...MODERATE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DOMINATES IN
THE REGION ALONG WITH LIGHT TRADE WINDS. MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE WESTERN BASIN GENERATED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH W OF 80W
AND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED OVER HISPANIOLA
ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 18N W OF 80W. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN WHICH IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 17N BETWEEN
64W-68W. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ON THE SE BASIN S OF 15N E OF 65W BEING
SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH.
ELSEWHERE...STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPRESS CONVECTION. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FRIDAY AND ACROSS CUBA ON
SATURDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING AS DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR IS ON THE REGION. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO WILL START AFFECTING THE
WEATHER LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W WITH ITS BASE EXTENDING ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE SW N ATLC. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH...A
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IN THE SW N ATLC THAT ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 25N W OF 69W. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 29N73W TO 26N80W TO THE SE GULF.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE WHICH ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE SOUTHWARD SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 24N BETWEEN 64W-67W. SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 191056
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 19/0900 UTC...TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR
39.8N 38.5W OR ABOUT 462 NM W-NW OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN
AZORES MOVING E AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND EDOUARD IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EDOUARD HAS REDUCED SIGNIFICANTLY AND
LIES SE OF THE CENTER FROM 34N-39N BETWEEN 33W-37W. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 17N18W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 12N19W TO 9N19W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KT. METEOSAT RGB AIRMASS IMAGERY SHOW
THICK HIGH CLOUDS N-NW OF THE LOW WHERE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED AS SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED TSTMS.
CONVECTION IN THE S-SW WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS LIMITED DUE TO SOME
DRY AIR AND DUST INTRUSION NOTED IN THE GOES-R SEVIRI DUST
PRODUCT AND THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N46W TO 8N48W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. SCATTERED
LOW TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THE WAVE EXCEPT NW OF THE
AXIS WHERE THE GOES-R DUST PRODUCT AND THE METEOSAT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR AND DUST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE AXIS AND 300 NM W OF THE AXIS S OF 11N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N66W TO 11N67W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. MOSTLY
MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IN THE
CARIBBEAN WITH PATCHES OF HIGH MOISTURE N OF 17N BETWEEN 65W-67W
WHERE SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OBSERVED. STRONG
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS HINDERING CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N16W TO
A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 12N19W TO 8N31W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
8N31W TO 9N45W...THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 9N49W TO
6N58W. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT CONVECTION SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS ACROSS THE GULF BEING
INFLUENCED BY LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W HAS ITS BASE REACHING
THE EASTERN GULF...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE SW N ATLC. THIS
TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA WESTWARD TO SW LOUISIANA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF E OF 91W N OF
23N. SURFACE TROUGHINESS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF ALONG
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL FUEL
RAINSHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

EXCEPT FOR SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND A PORTION OF THE NW
CARIBBEAN...MODERATE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DOMINATES IN
THE REGION ALONG WITH LIGHT TRADE WINDS. MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE WESTERN BASIN GENERATED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH W OF 80W
AND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED OVER HISPANIOLA
ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 18N W OF 80W. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN WHICH IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 17N BETWEEN
64W-68W. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ON THE SE BASIN S OF 15N E OF 65W BEING
SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH.
ELSEWHERE...STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPRESS CONVECTION. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FRIDAY AND ACROSS CUBA ON
SATURDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING AS DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR IS ON THE REGION. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO WILL START AFFECTING THE
WEATHER LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W WITH ITS BASE EXTENDING ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE SW N ATLC. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH...A
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IN THE SW N ATLC THAT ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 25N W OF 69W. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 29N73W TO 26N80W TO THE SE GULF.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE WHICH ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE SOUTHWARD SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 24N BETWEEN 64W-67W. SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 191056
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 19/0900 UTC...TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR
39.8N 38.5W OR ABOUT 462 NM W-NW OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN
AZORES MOVING E AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND EDOUARD IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EDOUARD HAS REDUCED SIGNIFICANTLY AND
LIES SE OF THE CENTER FROM 34N-39N BETWEEN 33W-37W. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 17N18W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 12N19W TO 9N19W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KT. METEOSAT RGB AIRMASS IMAGERY SHOW
THICK HIGH CLOUDS N-NW OF THE LOW WHERE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED AS SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED TSTMS.
CONVECTION IN THE S-SW WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS LIMITED DUE TO SOME
DRY AIR AND DUST INTRUSION NOTED IN THE GOES-R SEVIRI DUST
PRODUCT AND THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N46W TO 8N48W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. SCATTERED
LOW TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THE WAVE EXCEPT NW OF THE
AXIS WHERE THE GOES-R DUST PRODUCT AND THE METEOSAT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR AND DUST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE AXIS AND 300 NM W OF THE AXIS S OF 11N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N66W TO 11N67W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. MOSTLY
MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IN THE
CARIBBEAN WITH PATCHES OF HIGH MOISTURE N OF 17N BETWEEN 65W-67W
WHERE SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OBSERVED. STRONG
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS HINDERING CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N16W TO
A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 12N19W TO 8N31W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
8N31W TO 9N45W...THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 9N49W TO
6N58W. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT CONVECTION SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS ACROSS THE GULF BEING
INFLUENCED BY LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W HAS ITS BASE REACHING
THE EASTERN GULF...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE SW N ATLC. THIS
TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA WESTWARD TO SW LOUISIANA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF E OF 91W N OF
23N. SURFACE TROUGHINESS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF ALONG
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL FUEL
RAINSHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

EXCEPT FOR SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND A PORTION OF THE NW
CARIBBEAN...MODERATE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DOMINATES IN
THE REGION ALONG WITH LIGHT TRADE WINDS. MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE WESTERN BASIN GENERATED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH W OF 80W
AND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED OVER HISPANIOLA
ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 18N W OF 80W. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN WHICH IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 17N BETWEEN
64W-68W. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ON THE SE BASIN S OF 15N E OF 65W BEING
SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH.
ELSEWHERE...STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPRESS CONVECTION. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FRIDAY AND ACROSS CUBA ON
SATURDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING AS DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR IS ON THE REGION. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO WILL START AFFECTING THE
WEATHER LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W WITH ITS BASE EXTENDING ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE SW N ATLC. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH...A
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IN THE SW N ATLC THAT ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 25N W OF 69W. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 29N73W TO 26N80W TO THE SE GULF.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE WHICH ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE SOUTHWARD SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 24N BETWEEN 64W-67W. SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190948
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM POLO LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 107.1W OR ABOUT 140 MILES SW
OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO...AND ABOUT 330 MILES SE OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT 0900 UTC SEP 19. THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 982 MB. POLO IS MOVING NW OR 315
DEG AT 07 KT...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MOTION THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
SLOW SLIGHTLY. A TURN TO THE W-NW IS EXPECTED ON SAT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT 60 KT WITH GUSTS 75 KT.

CURRENTLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150
NM OVER THE SW SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WELL TO THE N OF CENTER WITHIN 75 NM OF
22.5N107W. CONVECTION OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 21N AND 24N...AND MAY RESULT IN
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST
OF MEXICO FROM 17N TO 24N AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SEE THE
LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC
AND FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
BETWEEN 09-10N TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 09N84W...
THEN DIPS SW TO 09N92W...THEN TURNS NW TO 11N98W...THEN W TO
11N120W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW TO 13N132W...THEN W TO BEYOND 13N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG
THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07.5N82W TO 09N100W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
NOTED S OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM OF 08.5N138W.

...DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N138W TO
25N120W. THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE NE-E TRADES ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 120W AND TO THE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. A
SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR
28N137W ON SAT...WITH THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTING SE TO NEAR
27N135W ON SAT. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
15-20 KT BETWEEN 120W AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
ON SUN...ACCOMPANIED BY 4-6 FT SEAS IN MIXING N AND S SWELL.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190948
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM POLO LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 107.1W OR ABOUT 140 MILES SW
OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO...AND ABOUT 330 MILES SE OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT 0900 UTC SEP 19. THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 982 MB. POLO IS MOVING NW OR 315
DEG AT 07 KT...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MOTION THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
SLOW SLIGHTLY. A TURN TO THE W-NW IS EXPECTED ON SAT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT 60 KT WITH GUSTS 75 KT.

CURRENTLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150
NM OVER THE SW SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WELL TO THE N OF CENTER WITHIN 75 NM OF
22.5N107W. CONVECTION OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 21N AND 24N...AND MAY RESULT IN
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST
OF MEXICO FROM 17N TO 24N AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SEE THE
LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC
AND FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
BETWEEN 09-10N TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 09N84W...
THEN DIPS SW TO 09N92W...THEN TURNS NW TO 11N98W...THEN W TO
11N120W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW TO 13N132W...THEN W TO BEYOND 13N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG
THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07.5N82W TO 09N100W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
NOTED S OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM OF 08.5N138W.

...DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N138W TO
25N120W. THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE NE-E TRADES ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 120W AND TO THE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. A
SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR
28N137W ON SAT...WITH THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTING SE TO NEAR
27N135W ON SAT. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
15-20 KT BETWEEN 120W AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
ON SUN...ACCOMPANIED BY 4-6 FT SEAS IN MIXING N AND S SWELL.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190948
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM POLO LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 107.1W OR ABOUT 140 MILES SW
OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO...AND ABOUT 330 MILES SE OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT 0900 UTC SEP 19. THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 982 MB. POLO IS MOVING NW OR 315
DEG AT 07 KT...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MOTION THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
SLOW SLIGHTLY. A TURN TO THE W-NW IS EXPECTED ON SAT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT 60 KT WITH GUSTS 75 KT.

CURRENTLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150
NM OVER THE SW SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WELL TO THE N OF CENTER WITHIN 75 NM OF
22.5N107W. CONVECTION OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 21N AND 24N...AND MAY RESULT IN
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST
OF MEXICO FROM 17N TO 24N AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SEE THE
LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC
AND FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
BETWEEN 09-10N TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 09N84W...
THEN DIPS SW TO 09N92W...THEN TURNS NW TO 11N98W...THEN W TO
11N120W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW TO 13N132W...THEN W TO BEYOND 13N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG
THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07.5N82W TO 09N100W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
NOTED S OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM OF 08.5N138W.

...DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N138W TO
25N120W. THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE NE-E TRADES ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 120W AND TO THE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. A
SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR
28N137W ON SAT...WITH THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTING SE TO NEAR
27N135W ON SAT. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
15-20 KT BETWEEN 120W AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
ON SUN...ACCOMPANIED BY 4-6 FT SEAS IN MIXING N AND S SWELL.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190948
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM POLO LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 107.1W OR ABOUT 140 MILES SW
OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO...AND ABOUT 330 MILES SE OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT 0900 UTC SEP 19. THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 982 MB. POLO IS MOVING NW OR 315
DEG AT 07 KT...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MOTION THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
SLOW SLIGHTLY. A TURN TO THE W-NW IS EXPECTED ON SAT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT 60 KT WITH GUSTS 75 KT.

CURRENTLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150
NM OVER THE SW SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WELL TO THE N OF CENTER WITHIN 75 NM OF
22.5N107W. CONVECTION OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 21N AND 24N...AND MAY RESULT IN
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST
OF MEXICO FROM 17N TO 24N AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SEE THE
LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC
AND FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
BETWEEN 09-10N TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 09N84W...
THEN DIPS SW TO 09N92W...THEN TURNS NW TO 11N98W...THEN W TO
11N120W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW TO 13N132W...THEN W TO BEYOND 13N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG
THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07.5N82W TO 09N100W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
NOTED S OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM OF 08.5N138W.

...DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N138W TO
25N120W. THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE NE-E TRADES ACROSS
THE TROPICS W OF 120W AND TO THE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. A
SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR
28N137W ON SAT...WITH THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTING SE TO NEAR
27N135W ON SAT. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
15-20 KT BETWEEN 120W AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
ON SUN...ACCOMPANIED BY 4-6 FT SEAS IN MIXING N AND S SWELL.

$$
NELSON


000
WTNT31 KNHC 190851
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

...EDOUARD MOVING SLOWER AND LOSING STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.8N 38.5W
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM WNW OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.5 WEST. EDOUARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.24 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



000
WTNT31 KNHC 190851
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

...EDOUARD MOVING SLOWER AND LOSING STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.8N 38.5W
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM WNW OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.5 WEST. EDOUARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.24 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 190850
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 107.1W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND WATCH FOR MAINLAND MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  POLO IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS...AND SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF COLIMA...NAYARIT AND JALISCO STATES IN
MEXICO.  THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 190850
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0900 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND WATCH FOR MAINLAND MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 107.1W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 107.1W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 106.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.6N 107.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.4N 108.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.0N 110.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.7N 111.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 22.5N 116.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 22.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 107.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN





000
WTPZ22 KNHC 190850
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0900 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND WATCH FOR MAINLAND MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 107.1W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 107.1W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 106.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.6N 107.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.4N 108.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.0N 110.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.7N 111.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 22.5N 116.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 22.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 107.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN





000
WTPZ22 KNHC 190850
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0900 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND WATCH FOR MAINLAND MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 107.1W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 107.1W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 106.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.6N 107.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.4N 108.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.0N 110.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.7N 111.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 22.5N 116.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 22.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 107.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN





000
WTPZ22 KNHC 190850
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0900 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND WATCH FOR MAINLAND MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 107.1W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 107.1W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 106.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.6N 107.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.4N 108.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.0N 110.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.7N 111.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 22.5N 116.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 22.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 107.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN





000
WTNT21 KNHC 190850
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
0900 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.8N  38.5W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 100SE  80SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 160SE 150SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 280SE 280SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.8N  38.5W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  38.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 39.7N  37.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 130SE  80SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 39.7N  35.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 130SE  80SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 39.5N  33.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 38.5N  31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE 120SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 34.5N  30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.8N  38.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





000
WTNT21 KNHC 190850
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
0900 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.8N  38.5W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 100SE  80SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 160SE 150SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 280SE 280SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.8N  38.5W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  38.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 39.7N  37.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 130SE  80SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 39.7N  35.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 130SE  80SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 39.5N  33.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 38.5N  31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE 120SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 34.5N  30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.8N  38.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 190850
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 107.1W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND WATCH FOR MAINLAND MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  POLO IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS...AND SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF COLIMA...NAYARIT AND JALISCO STATES IN
MEXICO.  THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



000
WTNT21 KNHC 190850
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
0900 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.8N  38.5W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 100SE  80SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 160SE 150SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 280SE 280SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.8N  38.5W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  38.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 39.7N  37.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 130SE  80SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 39.7N  35.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 130SE  80SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 39.5N  33.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 38.5N  31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE 120SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 34.5N  30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.8N  38.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 190850
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 107.1W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND WATCH FOR MAINLAND MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  POLO IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS...AND SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF COLIMA...NAYARIT AND JALISCO STATES IN
MEXICO.  THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



000
WTPZ35 KWNH 190832
TCPEP5

REMNANTS OF ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD EP152014
300 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ODILE IS DISSIPATING NEAR THE
ARIZONA-NEW MEXICO BORDER WHILE HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...

SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE CIRCULATION


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND INTO PORTIONS OF WEST
TEXAS.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...THERE WAS NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE
CIRCULATION FOR ODILE. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ODILE CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS  SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.
 RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE CONTINUES TO FALL PRIMARILY EAST OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...WITH
EMBEDDED POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR A STATIONARY
FRONT. IN ADDITION...NEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING IN WESTERN
TEXAS.  THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. LATER TODAY.  RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN ENDING ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY TOMORROW
EVENING AND TEXAS BY SATURDAY.

HAZARDS
-------
RAINFALL...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.  THESE RAINS COULD RESULT
IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.  RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE ALL NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS TO MITIGATE THESE POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATIONS.


RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 8 AM MDT

...ARIZONA...
EPHRAIM WASH                         3.78
DOUGLAS 7.3 WNW                      3.30
CLUFF RANCH                          3.15
HEREFORD 9.0 SW                      3.10
PORTRERO CANYON                      3.07
DOUGLAS BISBEE INTL ARPT             3.05
NOGALES INTL ARPT                    3.01
FORT HUACHUCA                        2.79
SIERRA VISTA 9.2 SSE                 2.63
DAN SADDLE                           2.44
DAVIDSON CANYON AT I-10              2.09
FALCON FIELD                         2.01
ITALIAN TRAP (REDINGTON PASS)        1.93
FRYE MESA RESERVOIR                  1.77
SAN SIMON 2.6 S                      1.65
DAN SADDLE (UPPER CDO)               1.65
SAFFORD MUNI ARPT                    1.44

...NEW MEXICO...
MOGOLLON 3 WSW                       4.13
GLENWOOD                             3.63
CHAPARRAL 0.4 SE                     3.50
RODEO 5.0 NNE                        3.34
BONITO LAKE 6 WSW                    3.10
SAN ANTONIO 25.6 SSW                 3.06
BOSQUE DEL APACHE REFUGE 19 SW       3.06
DEMING MUNI ARPT                     2.98
HILLSBORO 0.1 ESE                    2.23
LA JOYA 2 WNW                        2.15
LAS CRUCES INTL ARPT                 2.10
CUTTER                               2.10
CAPITAN 2 SW                         2.00
DATIL 11 NNE                         1.56
SOCORRO 2 S                          1.43
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES MUNI ARPT      1.09

...TEXAS...
FLUVANNA 3 W                         5.63
PLAINVIEW 4 SSW                      4.31
GAIL 2ESE                            3.86
POST 1NE                             3.49
AMHERST 1NE                          3.34
EL PASO 8 E                          3.11
MIDLAND 4 ENE                        3.00
KELP 3 SE                            3.00
EL PASO INTL ARPT                    2.68
PINE SPRINGS                         2.47
THE PINERY RAWS                      2.44
BIG SPRING 1 ESE                     2.25
MONTANA VISTA 4 NE                   2.20
GUADALUPE PASS                       2.15
LUBBOCK INTL ARPT                    1.17


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT  900 AM MDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.

FORECASTER KREKELER
$$





000
AXNT20 KNHC 190604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 19/0300 UTC...TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR
39.9N 39.2W OR ABOUT 494 NM W-NW OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN
AZORES MOVING E AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
980 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 36N-42N BETWEEN 33W-
38W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N18W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N20W...WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN
THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE WAVE IS MOVING AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KT.
METEOSAT RGB AIRMASS IMAGERY SHOW THICK HIGH CLOUDS N OF THE LOW
AND NE OF THE WAVE AXIS WHERE STRONG CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OBSERVED. WARM...MOIST AIR AT THE MIDDLE LEVELS IS
NOTED WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOW WHILE SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST
CONTINUES TO ENGULF THE N-NW WAVE ENVIRONMENT.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N45W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 15N46W TO 10N47W
...MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. THE GOES-R RGB AIRMASS PRODUCT INDICATE
A MOIST MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WAVE ENVIRONMENT EXCEPT NW OF THE
LOW WHERE DRY CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT...ALSO DEPICTED IN METEOSAT
SAL TRACKING IMAGERY. LITTLE TO NONE DUST IS DEPICTED IN THE
GOES-R DUST PRODUCT IN THIS REGION OF DRY AIR. STRONG DEEP LAYER
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS OVER THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS
LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN
42W-51W AND FROM 15N-18N WITHIN 250 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N65W TO 10N66W...MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. MOSTLY
MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IN THE
CARIBBEAN WITH PATCHES OF HIGH MOISTURE N OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-
68W. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS HINDERING
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO
A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N19W TO 7N30W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
7N31W TO 10N43W...THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 10N50W TO
7N58W. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN
50W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS ACROSS THE GULF BEING
INFLUENCED BY LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W HAS ITS BASE REACHING
THE EASTERN GULF...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE SW N ATLC. THIS
TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA WESTWARD TO A 1012 MB LOW IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC...ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA TO 24N85W IN THE SE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF AND IN THE NW BASIN N OF 25N. SURFACE
TROUGHINESS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF ALONG ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL FUEL RAINSHOWERS
ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

EXCEPT FOR SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND A PORTION OF THE NW
CARIBBEAN...MODERATE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DOMINATES IN
THE REGION ALONG WITH LIGHT TRADE WINDS. MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE WESTERN BASIN GENERATED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH W OF 80W
AND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED OVER HISPANIOLA
ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 17N W OF 78W. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN WHICH IS SUPPORTING
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-68W. SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...STRONG DEEP LAYER
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPRESS
CONVECTION. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA FRIDAY AND ACROSS CUBA ON SATURDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

EXCEPT FOR SW HAITI WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
NOTED...THE REMAINDER ISLAND IS CLOUDY WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PUERTO
RICO WILL INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY STARTING FRIDAY MORNING AS IT
CONTINUES IT WESTWARD PATH TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA ON FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W WITH ITS BASE EXTENDING ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE SW N ATLC. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH...A
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IN THE SW N ATLC THAT ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 25N W OF 69W. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 29N73W TO 26N80W TO THE SE GULF.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE WHICH ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE SOUTHWARD SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 24N BETWEEN 64W-67W. SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 190604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 19/0300 UTC...TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR
39.9N 39.2W OR ABOUT 494 NM W-NW OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN
AZORES MOVING E AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
980 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 36N-42N BETWEEN 33W-
38W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N18W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N20W...WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN
THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE WAVE IS MOVING AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KT.
METEOSAT RGB AIRMASS IMAGERY SHOW THICK HIGH CLOUDS N OF THE LOW
AND NE OF THE WAVE AXIS WHERE STRONG CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OBSERVED. WARM...MOIST AIR AT THE MIDDLE LEVELS IS
NOTED WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOW WHILE SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST
CONTINUES TO ENGULF THE N-NW WAVE ENVIRONMENT.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N45W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 15N46W TO 10N47W
...MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. THE GOES-R RGB AIRMASS PRODUCT INDICATE
A MOIST MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WAVE ENVIRONMENT EXCEPT NW OF THE
LOW WHERE DRY CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT...ALSO DEPICTED IN METEOSAT
SAL TRACKING IMAGERY. LITTLE TO NONE DUST IS DEPICTED IN THE
GOES-R DUST PRODUCT IN THIS REGION OF DRY AIR. STRONG DEEP LAYER
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS OVER THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS
LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN
42W-51W AND FROM 15N-18N WITHIN 250 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N65W TO 10N66W...MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. MOSTLY
MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IN THE
CARIBBEAN WITH PATCHES OF HIGH MOISTURE N OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-
68W. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS HINDERING
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO
A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N19W TO 7N30W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
7N31W TO 10N43W...THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 10N50W TO
7N58W. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN
50W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS ACROSS THE GULF BEING
INFLUENCED BY LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W HAS ITS BASE REACHING
THE EASTERN GULF...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE SW N ATLC. THIS
TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA WESTWARD TO A 1012 MB LOW IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC...ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA TO 24N85W IN THE SE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF AND IN THE NW BASIN N OF 25N. SURFACE
TROUGHINESS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF ALONG ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL FUEL RAINSHOWERS
ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

EXCEPT FOR SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND A PORTION OF THE NW
CARIBBEAN...MODERATE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DOMINATES IN
THE REGION ALONG WITH LIGHT TRADE WINDS. MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE WESTERN BASIN GENERATED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH W OF 80W
AND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED OVER HISPANIOLA
ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 17N W OF 78W. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN WHICH IS SUPPORTING
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-68W. SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...STRONG DEEP LAYER
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPRESS
CONVECTION. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA FRIDAY AND ACROSS CUBA ON SATURDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

EXCEPT FOR SW HAITI WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
NOTED...THE REMAINDER ISLAND IS CLOUDY WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PUERTO
RICO WILL INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY STARTING FRIDAY MORNING AS IT
CONTINUES IT WESTWARD PATH TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA ON FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W WITH ITS BASE EXTENDING ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE SW N ATLC. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH...A
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IN THE SW N ATLC THAT ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 25N W OF 69W. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 29N73W TO 26N80W TO THE SE GULF.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE WHICH ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE SOUTHWARD SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 24N BETWEEN 64W-67W. SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 190604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 19/0300 UTC...TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR
39.9N 39.2W OR ABOUT 494 NM W-NW OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN
AZORES MOVING E AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
980 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 36N-42N BETWEEN 33W-
38W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N18W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N20W...WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN
THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE WAVE IS MOVING AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KT.
METEOSAT RGB AIRMASS IMAGERY SHOW THICK HIGH CLOUDS N OF THE LOW
AND NE OF THE WAVE AXIS WHERE STRONG CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OBSERVED. WARM...MOIST AIR AT THE MIDDLE LEVELS IS
NOTED WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOW WHILE SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST
CONTINUES TO ENGULF THE N-NW WAVE ENVIRONMENT.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N45W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 15N46W TO 10N47W
...MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. THE GOES-R RGB AIRMASS PRODUCT INDICATE
A MOIST MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WAVE ENVIRONMENT EXCEPT NW OF THE
LOW WHERE DRY CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT...ALSO DEPICTED IN METEOSAT
SAL TRACKING IMAGERY. LITTLE TO NONE DUST IS DEPICTED IN THE
GOES-R DUST PRODUCT IN THIS REGION OF DRY AIR. STRONG DEEP LAYER
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS OVER THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS
LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN
42W-51W AND FROM 15N-18N WITHIN 250 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N65W TO 10N66W...MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. MOSTLY
MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IN THE
CARIBBEAN WITH PATCHES OF HIGH MOISTURE N OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-
68W. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS HINDERING
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO
A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N19W TO 7N30W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
7N31W TO 10N43W...THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 10N50W TO
7N58W. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN
50W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS ACROSS THE GULF BEING
INFLUENCED BY LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W HAS ITS BASE REACHING
THE EASTERN GULF...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE SW N ATLC. THIS
TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA WESTWARD TO A 1012 MB LOW IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC...ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA TO 24N85W IN THE SE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF AND IN THE NW BASIN N OF 25N. SURFACE
TROUGHINESS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF ALONG ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL FUEL RAINSHOWERS
ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

EXCEPT FOR SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND A PORTION OF THE NW
CARIBBEAN...MODERATE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DOMINATES IN
THE REGION ALONG WITH LIGHT TRADE WINDS. MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE WESTERN BASIN GENERATED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH W OF 80W
AND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED OVER HISPANIOLA
ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 17N W OF 78W. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN WHICH IS SUPPORTING
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-68W. SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...STRONG DEEP LAYER
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPRESS
CONVECTION. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA FRIDAY AND ACROSS CUBA ON SATURDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

EXCEPT FOR SW HAITI WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
NOTED...THE REMAINDER ISLAND IS CLOUDY WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PUERTO
RICO WILL INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY STARTING FRIDAY MORNING AS IT
CONTINUES IT WESTWARD PATH TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA ON FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W WITH ITS BASE EXTENDING ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE SW N ATLC. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH...A
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IN THE SW N ATLC THAT ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 25N W OF 69W. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 29N73W TO 26N80W TO THE SE GULF.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE WHICH ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE SOUTHWARD SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 24N BETWEEN 64W-67W. SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 190604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 19/0300 UTC...TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR
39.9N 39.2W OR ABOUT 494 NM W-NW OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN
AZORES MOVING E AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
980 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 36N-42N BETWEEN 33W-
38W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N18W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N20W...WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN
THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE WAVE IS MOVING AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KT.
METEOSAT RGB AIRMASS IMAGERY SHOW THICK HIGH CLOUDS N OF THE LOW
AND NE OF THE WAVE AXIS WHERE STRONG CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OBSERVED. WARM...MOIST AIR AT THE MIDDLE LEVELS IS
NOTED WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOW WHILE SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST
CONTINUES TO ENGULF THE N-NW WAVE ENVIRONMENT.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N45W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 15N46W TO 10N47W
...MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. THE GOES-R RGB AIRMASS PRODUCT INDICATE
A MOIST MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WAVE ENVIRONMENT EXCEPT NW OF THE
LOW WHERE DRY CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT...ALSO DEPICTED IN METEOSAT
SAL TRACKING IMAGERY. LITTLE TO NONE DUST IS DEPICTED IN THE
GOES-R DUST PRODUCT IN THIS REGION OF DRY AIR. STRONG DEEP LAYER
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS OVER THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS
LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN
42W-51W AND FROM 15N-18N WITHIN 250 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N65W TO 10N66W...MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. MOSTLY
MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IN THE
CARIBBEAN WITH PATCHES OF HIGH MOISTURE N OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-
68W. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS HINDERING
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO
A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N19W TO 7N30W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
7N31W TO 10N43W...THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 10N50W TO
7N58W. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN
50W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS ACROSS THE GULF BEING
INFLUENCED BY LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W HAS ITS BASE REACHING
THE EASTERN GULF...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE SW N ATLC. THIS
TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA WESTWARD TO A 1012 MB LOW IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC...ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA TO 24N85W IN THE SE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF AND IN THE NW BASIN N OF 25N. SURFACE
TROUGHINESS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF ALONG ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL FUEL RAINSHOWERS
ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

EXCEPT FOR SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND A PORTION OF THE NW
CARIBBEAN...MODERATE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DOMINATES IN
THE REGION ALONG WITH LIGHT TRADE WINDS. MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE WESTERN BASIN GENERATED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH W OF 80W
AND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED OVER HISPANIOLA
ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 17N W OF 78W. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN WHICH IS SUPPORTING
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-68W. SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...STRONG DEEP LAYER
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPRESS
CONVECTION. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA FRIDAY AND ACROSS CUBA ON SATURDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

EXCEPT FOR SW HAITI WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
NOTED...THE REMAINDER ISLAND IS CLOUDY WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PUERTO
RICO WILL INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY STARTING FRIDAY MORNING AS IT
CONTINUES IT WESTWARD PATH TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA ON FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W WITH ITS BASE EXTENDING ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE SW N ATLC. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH...A
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IN THE SW N ATLC THAT ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 25N W OF 69W. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 29N73W TO 26N80W TO THE SE GULF.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE WHICH ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE SOUTHWARD SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 24N BETWEEN 64W-67W. SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 190602
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT VIERNES 19 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE LA
TORMENTA TROPICAL EDOUARD...LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL
OESTE NOROESTE DEL OESTE DE LOS AZORES.

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS HAN AUMENTADO EN ASOCIACION CON UN AREA AMPLIA
DE BAJA PRESION CENTRALIZADA ENTRE EL OESTE DE AFRICA Y LAS ISLAS DE
CABO VERDE. ALGUN DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA ES POSIBLE DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS DIAS ANTES DE QUE LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS SE
TORNEN MENOS CONDUCENTES A PRINCIPIOS DE LA SEMANA PROXIMA. SE
ESPERA QUE ESTA BAJA PRESION SE MUEVA LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE
NOROESTE Y PUDIERA TRAER LLUVIA FUERTE A SECTORES DE LAS ISLAS DE
CABO VERDE ESTE FIN DE SEMANA.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

UN AREA NO TROPICAL DE BAJA PRESION PODRIA FORMARSE AFUERA DE LA
COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA. ESTE SISTEMA
TENDRA ALGUN POTENCIAL DE ADQUIRIR CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES O
SUBTROPICALES MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORESTE CERCA O MAR AFUERA
DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 190602
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT VIERNES 19 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE LA
TORMENTA TROPICAL EDOUARD...LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL
OESTE NOROESTE DEL OESTE DE LOS AZORES.

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS HAN AUMENTADO EN ASOCIACION CON UN AREA AMPLIA
DE BAJA PRESION CENTRALIZADA ENTRE EL OESTE DE AFRICA Y LAS ISLAS DE
CABO VERDE. ALGUN DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA ES POSIBLE DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS DIAS ANTES DE QUE LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS SE
TORNEN MENOS CONDUCENTES A PRINCIPIOS DE LA SEMANA PROXIMA. SE
ESPERA QUE ESTA BAJA PRESION SE MUEVA LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE
NOROESTE Y PUDIERA TRAER LLUVIA FUERTE A SECTORES DE LAS ISLAS DE
CABO VERDE ESTE FIN DE SEMANA.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

UN AREA NO TROPICAL DE BAJA PRESION PODRIA FORMARSE AFUERA DE LA
COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA. ESTE SISTEMA
TENDRA ALGUN POTENCIAL DE ADQUIRIR CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES O
SUBTROPICALES MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORESTE CERCA O MAR AFUERA
DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 190602
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT VIERNES 19 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE LA
TORMENTA TROPICAL EDOUARD...LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL
OESTE NOROESTE DEL OESTE DE LOS AZORES.

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS HAN AUMENTADO EN ASOCIACION CON UN AREA AMPLIA
DE BAJA PRESION CENTRALIZADA ENTRE EL OESTE DE AFRICA Y LAS ISLAS DE
CABO VERDE. ALGUN DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA ES POSIBLE DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS DIAS ANTES DE QUE LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS SE
TORNEN MENOS CONDUCENTES A PRINCIPIOS DE LA SEMANA PROXIMA. SE
ESPERA QUE ESTA BAJA PRESION SE MUEVA LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE
NOROESTE Y PUDIERA TRAER LLUVIA FUERTE A SECTORES DE LAS ISLAS DE
CABO VERDE ESTE FIN DE SEMANA.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

UN AREA NO TROPICAL DE BAJA PRESION PODRIA FORMARSE AFUERA DE LA
COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA. ESTE SISTEMA
TENDRA ALGUN POTENCIAL DE ADQUIRIR CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES O
SUBTROPICALES MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORESTE CERCA O MAR AFUERA
DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 190602
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT VIERNES 19 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE LA
TORMENTA TROPICAL EDOUARD...LOCALIZADA A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL
OESTE NOROESTE DEL OESTE DE LOS AZORES.

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS HAN AUMENTADO EN ASOCIACION CON UN AREA AMPLIA
DE BAJA PRESION CENTRALIZADA ENTRE EL OESTE DE AFRICA Y LAS ISLAS DE
CABO VERDE. ALGUN DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA ES POSIBLE DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS DIAS ANTES DE QUE LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS SE
TORNEN MENOS CONDUCENTES A PRINCIPIOS DE LA SEMANA PROXIMA. SE
ESPERA QUE ESTA BAJA PRESION SE MUEVA LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE
NOROESTE Y PUDIERA TRAER LLUVIA FUERTE A SECTORES DE LAS ISLAS DE
CABO VERDE ESTE FIN DE SEMANA.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO.

UN AREA NO TROPICAL DE BAJA PRESION PODRIA FORMARSE AFUERA DE LA
COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA. ESTE SISTEMA
TENDRA ALGUN POTENCIAL DE ADQUIRIR CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES O
SUBTROPICALES MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORESTE CERCA O MAR AFUERA
DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE




000
ABNT20 KNHC 190551
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Edouard, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the
western Azores.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a
broad area of low pressure centered between west Africa and the
Cape Verde Islands.  Some development of this system is possible
over the next few days before upper-level winds are forecast to
become less conducive by early next week.  This low is expected to
move slowly west-northwestward and could bring heavy rainfall to
portions of the Cape Verde Islands this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form off of the
east coast of Florida over the weekend.  This system has some
potential to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics while
it moves northeastward near or offshore of the southeastern coast of
the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake


000
ABNT20 KNHC 190551
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Edouard, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the
western Azores.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a
broad area of low pressure centered between west Africa and the
Cape Verde Islands.  Some development of this system is possible
over the next few days before upper-level winds are forecast to
become less conducive by early next week.  This low is expected to
move slowly west-northwestward and could bring heavy rainfall to
portions of the Cape Verde Islands this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form off of the
east coast of Florida over the weekend.  This system has some
potential to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics while
it moves northeastward near or offshore of the southeastern coast of
the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 190547
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1100 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

...CENTER OF POLO PASSING SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 106.9W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY
SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD
BRING STRONGER WINDS TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...BUT A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA IN MAINLAND MEXICO TONIGHT.  TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF COLIMA...NAYARIT AND JALISCO STATES IN
MEXICO.  THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
ACPN50 PHFO 190545
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST THU SEP 18 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

$$

LAU









000
ACPN50 PHFO 190545
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST THU SEP 18 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

$$

LAU










000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190524
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Polo, located less than 200 miles south-southwest of Cabo
Corrientes, Mexico.  The Weather Prediction Center in Washington,
DC, is issuing advisories on the remnants of Odile, located over
the southwestern United States.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190524
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Polo, located less than 200 miles south-southwest of Cabo
Corrientes, Mexico.  The Weather Prediction Center in Washington,
DC, is issuing advisories on the remnants of Odile, located over
the southwestern United States.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
WTPZ35 KWNH 190258
TCPEP5

REMNANTS OF ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD EP152014
900 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

...REMNANT CIRCULATION CENTER OF ODILE HAS DISSIPATED WHILE HEAVY
RAINS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...

SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE CIRCULATION


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND INTO PORTIONS OF
WESTERN TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AS WELL AS PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...THERE WAS NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE
CIRCULATION FOR ODILE. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION CENTER OF ODILE HAS
DISSIPATED NEAR THE ARIZONA-NEW MEXICO BORDER EARLIER TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED RAINS CONTINUE TO FALL FARTHER TO THE
EAST.  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED THAT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED POCKETS OF
HEAVIER RAIN WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS.  RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN TEXAS.  THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY FRIDAY
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY NORTHERN TEXAS ON SUNDAY.

HAZARDS
-------
RAINFALL...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.  THESE RAINS COULD RESULT
IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.  RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE ALL NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS TO MITIGATE THESE POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATIONS.


RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 8 PM MDT

...ARIZONA...
EPHRAIM WASH                         3.78
DOUGLAS 7.3 WNW                      3.30
CLUFF RANCH                          3.15
HEREFORD 9.0 SW                      3.10
PORTRERO CANYON                      3.07
DOUGLAS BISBEE INTL ARPT             3.05
NOGALES INTL ARPT                    3.01
FORT HUACHUCA                        2.79
SIERRA VISTA 9.2 SSE                 2.63
DAN SADDLE                           2.44
DAVIDSON CANYON AT I-10              2.09
FALCON FIELD                         2.01
ITALIAN TRAP (REDINGTON PASS)        1.93
FRYE MESA RESERVOIR                  1.77
SAN SIMON 2.6 S                      1.65
DAN SADDLE (UPPER CDO)               1.65
SAFFORD MUNI ARPT                    1.44

...NEW MEXICO...
MOGOLLON 3 WSW                       4.13
GLENWOOD                             3.63
CHAPARRAL 0.4 SE                     3.50
RODEO 5.0 NNE                        3.34
BONITO LAKE 6 WSW                    3.10
SAN ANTONIO 25.6 SSW                 3.06
BOSQUE DEL APACHE REFUGE 19 SW       3.06
DEMING MUNI ARPT                     2.98
BOSQUE DEL APACHE REFUGE 1 NNE       2.52
HILLSBORO 0.1 ESE                    2.23
LA JOYA 2 WNW                        2.15
LAS CRUCES INTL ARPT                 2.10
CUTTER                               2.10
CAPITAN 2 SW                         2.00
DATIL 11 NNE                         1.56
SOCORRO 2 S                          1.43
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES MUNI ARPT      1.09

...TEXAS...
FLUVANNA 3 W                         5.63
PLAINVIEW 4 SSW                      4.31
GAIL 2 ESE                           3.86
POST 1NE                             3.49
AMHERST 1NE                          3.34
EL PASO 8 E                          3.11
MIDLAND 4ENE CO-OP                   3.00
KELP 3 SE                            3.00
EL PASO INTL ARPT                    2.68
PINE SPRINGS                         2.47
THE PINERY RAWS                      2.44
BIG SPRING 1 ESE                     2.25
MONTANA VISTA 4 NE                   2.20
GUADALUPE PASS                       2.15
LUBBOCK INTL ARPT                    1.17


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT  300 AM MDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.

FORECASTER KONG
$$





000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190248
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 18.4N 106.6W AT 19/0300 UTC
OR ABOUT 130 NM S-SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 325 NM
SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NW AT 8 KT.
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS 75 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 105W-107W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 104W-110W. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK
THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SW COAST OF
MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT AND S OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY
SATURDAY. RAINFALL AND SWELLS CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO. SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N79W ALONG 9N87W 8N92W 11N98W
11N111W TO 10N120W WHERE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 13N130W
TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 82W-92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 136W-139W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 25N W OF 130W. THIS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS N OF THE
ITCZ. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
T.S. POLO MOVES NW.

LONG PERIOD SW SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL AFFECTING THE WATERS E
OF 110W THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SUBSIDED WITH A NEW AND SMALLER
PULSE OF SW SWELL ACROSS THE EQUATOR LATE FRI REACHING THE
COAST FROM PANAMA TO SE MEXICO THIS WEEKEND.

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190248
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 18.4N 106.6W AT 19/0300 UTC
OR ABOUT 130 NM S-SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 325 NM
SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NW AT 8 KT.
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS 75 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 105W-107W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 104W-110W. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK
THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SW COAST OF
MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT AND S OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY
SATURDAY. RAINFALL AND SWELLS CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO. SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N79W ALONG 9N87W 8N92W 11N98W
11N111W TO 10N120W WHERE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 13N130W
TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 82W-92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 136W-139W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 25N W OF 130W. THIS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS N OF THE
ITCZ. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
T.S. POLO MOVES NW.

LONG PERIOD SW SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL AFFECTING THE WATERS E
OF 110W THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SUBSIDED WITH A NEW AND SMALLER
PULSE OF SW SWELL ACROSS THE EQUATOR LATE FRI REACHING THE
COAST FROM PANAMA TO SE MEXICO THIS WEEKEND.

$$
PAW


000
WTPZ22 KNHC 190236
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0300 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 106.6W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT.......100NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 106.6W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 106.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.0N 107.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.8N 108.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.6N 109.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.3N 110.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.2N 113.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 22.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 22.5N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 106.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH





000
WTPZ32 KNHC 190236
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 106.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.6 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY
SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD
BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST OR TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...BUT A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN MAINLAND MEXICO TONIGHT.  TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF COLIMA...NAYARIT AND JALISCO STATES IN
MEXICO.  THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 190236
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0300 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 106.6W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT.......100NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 106.6W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 106.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.0N 107.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.8N 108.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.6N 109.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.3N 110.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.2N 113.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 22.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 22.5N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 106.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH





000
WTPZ32 KNHC 190236
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 106.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.6 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY
SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD
BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST OR TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...BUT A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN MAINLAND MEXICO TONIGHT.  TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF COLIMA...NAYARIT AND JALISCO STATES IN
MEXICO.  THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




000
WTNT31 KNHC 190235
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 PM AST THU SEP 18 2014

...EDOUARD STILL A STRONG TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.9N 39.2W
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM WNW OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.2 WEST. EDOUARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H.  A SLOWER EASTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



000
WTNT31 KNHC 190235
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 PM AST THU SEP 18 2014

...EDOUARD STILL A STRONG TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.9N 39.2W
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM WNW OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.2 WEST. EDOUARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H.  A SLOWER EASTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




000
WTNT21 KNHC 190234
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
0300 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  39.2W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 100SE 100SW   0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 180SE 180SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 300SE 300SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  39.2W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  40.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 39.9N  37.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  80SE  60SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 150SE 130SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 39.9N  36.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 40.0N  34.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 39.5N  31.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 36.0N  29.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.9N  39.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI





000
WTNT21 KNHC 190234
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
0300 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  39.2W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 100SE 100SW   0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 180SE 180SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 300SE 300SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  39.2W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  40.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 39.9N  37.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  80SE  60SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 150SE 130SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 39.9N  36.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 40.0N  34.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 39.5N  31.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 36.0N  29.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.9N  39.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI





000
WTNT21 KNHC 190234
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
0300 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  39.2W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 100SE 100SW   0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 180SE 180SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 300SE 300SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  39.2W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  40.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 39.9N  37.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  80SE  60SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 150SE 130SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 39.9N  36.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 40.0N  34.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 39.5N  31.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 36.0N  29.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.9N  39.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI





000
WTNT21 KNHC 190234
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
0300 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  39.2W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 100SE 100SW   0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 180SE 180SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 300SE 300SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  39.2W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  40.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 39.9N  37.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  80SE  60SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 150SE 130SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 39.9N  36.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 40.0N  34.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 39.5N  31.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 36.0N  29.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.9N  39.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 190045
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT JUEVES 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN EDOUARD...LOCALIZADO A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL OESTE
NOROESTE DEL OESTE DE LOS AZORES.

UN AREA AMPLIA DE BAJA PRESION...ASOCIDA CON UNA ONDA
TROPICAL...ESTA LOCALIZADA JUSTO AL OESTE DE LA COSTA OESTE DE
AFRICA. ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ESTA ACTUALMENTE
DESORGANIZADA...Y CUALQUIER DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA DEBE SER
LENTO EN OCURRIR MIENTRAS SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE
NOROESTE A NOROESTE SOBRE EL ESTE DEL ATLANTICO TROPICAL DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS DIAS.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

UN AREA AMPLIA DE DE BAJA PRESION PODRIA FORMARSE AFUERA DE LA COSTA
ESTE DE LA FLORIDA DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA. ESTE SISTEMA TENDRA
ALGUN POTENCIAL DE ADQUIRIR CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES O
SUBTROPICALES MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORESTE CERCA O MAR AFUERA
DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR CANGIALOSI





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 190045
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT JUEVES 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN EDOUARD...LOCALIZADO A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL OESTE
NOROESTE DEL OESTE DE LOS AZORES.

UN AREA AMPLIA DE BAJA PRESION...ASOCIDA CON UNA ONDA
TROPICAL...ESTA LOCALIZADA JUSTO AL OESTE DE LA COSTA OESTE DE
AFRICA. ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ESTA ACTUALMENTE
DESORGANIZADA...Y CUALQUIER DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA DEBE SER
LENTO EN OCURRIR MIENTRAS SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE
NOROESTE A NOROESTE SOBRE EL ESTE DEL ATLANTICO TROPICAL DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS DIAS.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

UN AREA AMPLIA DE DE BAJA PRESION PODRIA FORMARSE AFUERA DE LA COSTA
ESTE DE LA FLORIDA DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA. ESTE SISTEMA TENDRA
ALGUN POTENCIAL DE ADQUIRIR CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES O
SUBTROPICALES MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORESTE CERCA O MAR AFUERA
DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR CANGIALOSI





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 190045
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT JUEVES 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN EDOUARD...LOCALIZADO A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL OESTE
NOROESTE DEL OESTE DE LOS AZORES.

UN AREA AMPLIA DE BAJA PRESION...ASOCIDA CON UNA ONDA
TROPICAL...ESTA LOCALIZADA JUSTO AL OESTE DE LA COSTA OESTE DE
AFRICA. ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ESTA ACTUALMENTE
DESORGANIZADA...Y CUALQUIER DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA DEBE SER
LENTO EN OCURRIR MIENTRAS SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE
NOROESTE A NOROESTE SOBRE EL ESTE DEL ATLANTICO TROPICAL DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS DIAS.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

UN AREA AMPLIA DE DE BAJA PRESION PODRIA FORMARSE AFUERA DE LA COSTA
ESTE DE LA FLORIDA DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA. ESTE SISTEMA TENDRA
ALGUN POTENCIAL DE ADQUIRIR CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES O
SUBTROPICALES MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORESTE CERCA O MAR AFUERA
DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR CANGIALOSI





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 190045
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT JUEVES 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN EDOUARD...LOCALIZADO A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL OESTE
NOROESTE DEL OESTE DE LOS AZORES.

UN AREA AMPLIA DE BAJA PRESION...ASOCIDA CON UNA ONDA
TROPICAL...ESTA LOCALIZADA JUSTO AL OESTE DE LA COSTA OESTE DE
AFRICA. ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ESTA ACTUALMENTE
DESORGANIZADA...Y CUALQUIER DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA DEBE SER
LENTO EN OCURRIR MIENTRAS SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE
NOROESTE A NOROESTE SOBRE EL ESTE DEL ATLANTICO TROPICAL DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS DIAS.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

UN AREA AMPLIA DE DE BAJA PRESION PODRIA FORMARSE AFUERA DE LA COSTA
ESTE DE LA FLORIDA DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA. ESTE SISTEMA TENDRA
ALGUN POTENCIAL DE ADQUIRIR CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES O
SUBTROPICALES MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORESTE CERCA O MAR AFUERA
DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR CANGIALOSI





000
AXNT20 KNHC 182359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 18/2100 UTC...TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR
39.9N 41.3W OR ABOUT 591 NM WNW OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN
AZORES MOVING E AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
980 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON
FRIDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
37N-43N BETWEEN 35W-42W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF AFRICA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N18W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 10N20W MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA
FROM 4N-18N BETWEEN 10W-27W. FURTHER N...METEOSAT SAL IMAGERY
SHOWS BOTH DUST AND DRY AIR N OF 18N E OF 35W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 13W-22W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N44W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 15N45W TO
10N46W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA FROM 6N-22N BETWEEN 35W-49W. FURTHER
N...METEOSAT SAL IMAGERY SHOWS BOTH DUST AND DRY AIR N OF 22N
BETWEEN 35W-60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-
12N BETWEEN 44W-50W. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 21N66W TO 10N66W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ENHANCED
AT UPPER LEVELS BY A LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N65W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 19N BETWEEN 63W-66W. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 10N20W TO 8N32W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
8N32W TO 11N42W AND CONTINUES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 10N48W TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 50W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA
NEAR 27N80W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N90W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH.
FURTHER W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW GULF
FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 90W-97W.  MOREOVER...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER W CUBA AND THE NE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS..AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER N MEXICO WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ENTIRE GULF
ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH RESIDUAL
CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPORTING TRADES OF 5-15 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER NW VENEZUELA... N COLOMBIA
...THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER E
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF JAMAICA NEAR
17N83W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
GUATEMALA...HONDURAS... NICARAGUA...AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN S
OF 16N W OF 80W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ADVECTS OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI DUE TO
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING...AND A TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

HURRICANE EDOUARD AND TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE MAIN FEATURES
ACROSS THE BASIN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVES
SECTIONS ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC FROM 31N71W TO S FLORIDA AT 27N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1022 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N33W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO
RICO NEAR 23N65W. SCATTERED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 61W-66W...AND FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 57W-62W.
EXPECT A COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO BE OVER THE W
ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH INCREASED CONVECTION. ALSO
EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 182359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 18/2100 UTC...TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR
39.9N 41.3W OR ABOUT 591 NM WNW OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN
AZORES MOVING E AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
980 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON
FRIDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
37N-43N BETWEEN 35W-42W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF AFRICA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N18W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 10N20W MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA
FROM 4N-18N BETWEEN 10W-27W. FURTHER N...METEOSAT SAL IMAGERY
SHOWS BOTH DUST AND DRY AIR N OF 18N E OF 35W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 13W-22W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N44W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 15N45W TO
10N46W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA FROM 6N-22N BETWEEN 35W-49W. FURTHER
N...METEOSAT SAL IMAGERY SHOWS BOTH DUST AND DRY AIR N OF 22N
BETWEEN 35W-60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-
12N BETWEEN 44W-50W. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 21N66W TO 10N66W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ENHANCED
AT UPPER LEVELS BY A LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N65W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 19N BETWEEN 63W-66W. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 10N20W TO 8N32W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
8N32W TO 11N42W AND CONTINUES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 10N48W TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 50W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA
NEAR 27N80W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N90W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH.
FURTHER W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW GULF
FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 90W-97W.  MOREOVER...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER W CUBA AND THE NE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS..AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER N MEXICO WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ENTIRE GULF
ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH RESIDUAL
CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPORTING TRADES OF 5-15 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER NW VENEZUELA... N COLOMBIA
...THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER E
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF JAMAICA NEAR
17N83W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
GUATEMALA...HONDURAS... NICARAGUA...AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN S
OF 16N W OF 80W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ADVECTS OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI DUE TO
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING...AND A TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

HURRICANE EDOUARD AND TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE MAIN FEATURES
ACROSS THE BASIN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVES
SECTIONS ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC FROM 31N71W TO S FLORIDA AT 27N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1022 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N33W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO
RICO NEAR 23N65W. SCATTERED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 61W-66W...AND FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 57W-62W.
EXPECT A COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO BE OVER THE W
ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH INCREASED CONVECTION. ALSO
EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
WTPZ32 KNHC 182355
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
500 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

...POLO CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 106.1W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.  A DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF
THE TRACK COULD REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST.  POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SOUTH OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO
THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 15 INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF
GUERRERO...MICHOACAN...COLIMA AND JALISCO STATES IN MEXICO.  THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




000
ACPN50 PHFO 182345
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST THU SEP 18 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

FOSTER





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182332
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Polo, located less than 200 miles south of Cabo Corrientes,
Mexico.  The Weather Prediction Center in Washington, DC, is issuing
advisories on the remnants of Odile, located near the
Arizona-New Mexico border.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABNT20 KNHC 182332
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Edouard, located several hundred miles
west-northwest of the western Azores.

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located just off of the west coast of Africa.  Shower and
thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, and any development
of this system should be slow to occur while it moves slowly
west-northwestward to northwestward over the eastern tropical
Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A broad area of low pressure could form off of the east coast of
Florida over the weekend. This system will have some potential to
acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics while it moves
northeastward near or offshore of the southeastern coast of the
United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182332
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Polo, located less than 200 miles south of Cabo Corrientes,
Mexico.  The Weather Prediction Center in Washington, DC, is issuing
advisories on the remnants of Odile, located near the
Arizona-New Mexico border.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABNT20 KNHC 182332
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Edouard, located several hundred miles
west-northwest of the western Azores.

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located just off of the west coast of Africa.  Shower and
thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, and any development
of this system should be slow to occur while it moves slowly
west-northwestward to northwestward over the eastern tropical
Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A broad area of low pressure could form off of the east coast of
Florida over the weekend. This system will have some potential to
acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics while it moves
northeastward near or offshore of the southeastern coast of the
United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182332
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Polo, located less than 200 miles south of Cabo Corrientes,
Mexico.  The Weather Prediction Center in Washington, DC, is issuing
advisories on the remnants of Odile, located near the
Arizona-New Mexico border.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABNT20 KNHC 182332
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Edouard, located several hundred miles
west-northwest of the western Azores.

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located just off of the west coast of Africa.  Shower and
thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, and any development
of this system should be slow to occur while it moves slowly
west-northwestward to northwestward over the eastern tropical
Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A broad area of low pressure could form off of the east coast of
Florida over the weekend. This system will have some potential to
acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics while it moves
northeastward near or offshore of the southeastern coast of the
United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
WTPZ35 KWNH 182107
TCPEP5

REMNANTS OF ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD EP152014
300 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

...REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ODILE IS DISSIPATING NEAR THE
ARIZONA-NEW MEXICO BORDER WHILE HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 109.1W
ABOUT 40 MILES...32 KM...NE OF DOUGLAS ARIZONA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...15 MPH...30 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 090 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW
MEXICO...AND INTO PORTIONS OF TEXAS.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 109.1 WEST. THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ODILE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA TOWARD NEW MEXICO.
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE CONTINUES TO FALL PRIMARILY EAST OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER.  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO...AND ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT. IN
ADDITION...NEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING IN WESTERN TEXAS.  THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. LATER TODAY.  RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ENDING ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY TOMORROW EVENING AND
TEXAS BY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 15 MPH...30 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS
-------
RAINFALL...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.  THESE RAINS COULD RESULT
IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.  RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE ALL NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS TO MITIGATE THESE POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATIONS.


RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 8 AM MDT

...ARIZONA...
EPHRAIM WASH                         3.78
DOUGLAS 7.3 WNW                      3.30
CLUFF RANCH                          3.15
HEREFORD 9.0 SW                      3.10
PORTRERO CANYON                      3.07
DOUGLAS BISBEE INTL ARPT             3.05
NOGALES INTL ARPT                    3.01
FORT HUACHUCA                        2.79
SIERRA VISTA 9.2 SSE                 2.63
DAN SADDLE                           2.44
DAVIDSON CANYON AT I-10              2.09
FALCON FIELD                         2.01
ITALIAN TRAP (REDINGTON PASS)        1.93
FRYE MESA RESERVOIR                  1.77
SAN SIMON 2.6 S                      1.65
DAN SADDLE (UPPER CDO)               1.65
SAFFORD MUNI ARPT                    1.44

...NEW MEXICO...
MOGOLLON 3 WSW                       4.06
CHAPARRAL 0.4 SE                     3.50
RODEO 5.0 NNE                        3.34
BONITO LAKE 6 WSW                    3.10
SAN ANTONIO 25.6 SSW                 3.06
BOSQUE DEL APACHE REFUGE 19 SW       3.06
DEMING MUNI ARPT                     2.98
HILLSBORO 0.1 ESE                    2.23
LA JOYA 2 WNW                        2.15
LAS CRUCES INTL ARPT                 2.10
CUTTER                               2.10
CAPITAN 2 SW                         2.00
DATIL 11 NNE                         1.56
SOCORRO 2 S                          1.43
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES MUNI ARPT      1.09

...TEXAS...
FLUVANNA 3 W                         5.08
PLAINVIEW 4 SSW                      4.31
GAIL 2ESE                            3.80
POST 1NE                             3.49
AMHERST 1NE                          3.34
EL PASO 8 E                          3.11
KELP 3 SE                            3.00
EL PASO INTL ARPT                    2.68
THE PINERY RAWS                      2.44
BIG SPRING 1 ESE                     2.25
MONTANA VISTA 4 NE                   2.20
GUADALUPE PASS                       2.15
LUBBOCK INTL ARPT                    1.17


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT  900 PM MDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.

FORECASTER KONG
$$





000
WTPZ35 KWNH 182106
TCPEP5

REMNANTS OF ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD EP152014
300 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

...REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ODILE IS DISSIPATING NEAR THE
ARIZONA-NEW MEXICO BORDER WHILE HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 109.1W
ABOUT 40 MILES...32 KM...NE OF DOUGLAS ARIZONA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...15 MPH...30 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 080 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW
MEXICO...AND INTO PORTIONS OF TEXAS.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 109.1 WEST. THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ODILE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA TOWARD NEW MEXICO.
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE CONTINUES TO FALL PRIMARILY EAST OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER.  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO...AND ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT. IN
ADDITION...NEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING IN WESTERN TEXAS.  THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. LATER TODAY.  RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ENDING ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY TOMORROW EVENING AND
TEXAS BY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 15 MPH...30 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS
-------
RAINFALL...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.  THESE RAINS COULD RESULT
IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.  RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE ALL NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS TO MITIGATE THESE POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATIONS.


RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 2 PM MDT

...ARIZONA...
EPHRAIM WASH                         3.78
DOUGLAS 7.3 WNW                      3.30
CLUFF RANCH                          3.15
HEREFORD 9.0 SW                      3.10
PORTRERO CANYON                      3.07
DOUGLAS BISBEE INTL ARPT             3.05
NOGALES INTL ARPT                    3.01
FORT HUACHUCA                        2.79
SIERRA VISTA 9.2 SSE                 2.63
DAN SADDLE                           2.44
DAVIDSON CANYON AT I-10              2.09
FALCON FIELD                         2.01
ITALIAN TRAP (REDINGTON PASS)        1.93
FRYE MESA RESERVOIR                  1.77
SAN SIMON 2.6 S                      1.65
DAN SADDLE (UPPER CDO)               1.65
SAFFORD MUNI ARPT                    1.44

...NEW MEXICO...
MOGOLLON 3 WSW                       4.06
CHAPARRAL 0.4 SE                     3.50
RODEO 5.0 NNE                        3.34
BONITO LAKE 6 WSW                    3.10
SAN ANTONIO 25.6 SSW                 3.06
BOSQUE DEL APACHE REFUGE 19 SW       3.06
DEMING MUNI ARPT                     2.98
HILLSBORO 0.1 ESE                    2.23
LA JOYA 2 WNW                        2.15
LAS CRUCES INTL ARPT                 2.10
CUTTER                               2.10
CAPITAN 2 SW                         2.00
DATIL 11 NNE                         1.56
SOCORRO 2 S                          1.43
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES MUNI ARPT      1.09

...TEXAS...
FLUVANNA 3 W                         5.08
PLAINVIEW 4 SSW                      4.31
GAIL 2ESE                            3.80
POST 1NE                             3.49
AMHERST 1NE                          3.34
EL PASO 8 E                          3.11
KELP 3 SE                            3.00
EL PASO INTL ARPT                    2.68
THE PINERY RAWS                      2.44
BIG SPRING 1 ESE                     2.25
MONTANA VISTA 4 NE                   2.20
GUADALUPE PASS                       2.15
LUBBOCK INTL ARPT                    1.17


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT  900 PM MDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.

FORECASTER KONG
$$





000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182055
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU SEP 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE POLO WAS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM AT 18/2100 UTC.
TROPICAL STORM POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 17.8N 105.9W AT 18/2100 UTC
OR ABOUT 155 NM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 380 NM SE
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NW AT 7 KT.
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS 75 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 104W-108W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN
105W-110W. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATES
THAT THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO TROPICAL STORM. LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING COULD
BEGIN FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS WEAKENING...RAINFALL AND
SWELLS REMAIN AN ISSUE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. SEE THE LATEST
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N78W ALONG 9N86W 7N91W 11N98W TO
11N120W WHERE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 84W-89W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N120W TO 28N125W. NW SWELL
BEHIND THIS TROUGH IS MAINTAINING SEAS TO 8 FT OVER A SMALL
SECTION AND WILL RECEDE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT IN OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE MOST RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE COVERING THE AREA N OF 23N W OF
130W. THIS CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS
N OF THE ITCZ. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS T.S. POLO MOVES NW.

LONG PERIOD SW SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL AFFECTING THE WATERS E
OF 110W THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SUBSIDED WITH A NEW AND SMALLER
PULSE OF SW SWELL ACROSS THE EQUATOR LATE FRI REACHING THE
COAST FROM PANAMA TO SE MEXICO SAT.

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182055
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU SEP 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE POLO WAS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM AT 18/2100 UTC.
TROPICAL STORM POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 17.8N 105.9W AT 18/2100 UTC
OR ABOUT 155 NM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 380 NM SE
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NW AT 7 KT.
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS 75 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 104W-108W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN
105W-110W. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATES
THAT THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO TROPICAL STORM. LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING COULD
BEGIN FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS WEAKENING...RAINFALL AND
SWELLS REMAIN AN ISSUE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. SEE THE LATEST
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N78W ALONG 9N86W 7N91W 11N98W TO
11N120W WHERE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 84W-89W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N120W TO 28N125W. NW SWELL
BEHIND THIS TROUGH IS MAINTAINING SEAS TO 8 FT OVER A SMALL
SECTION AND WILL RECEDE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT IN OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE MOST RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE COVERING THE AREA N OF 23N W OF
130W. THIS CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS
N OF THE ITCZ. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS T.S. POLO MOVES NW.

LONG PERIOD SW SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL AFFECTING THE WATERS E
OF 110W THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SUBSIDED WITH A NEW AND SMALLER
PULSE OF SW SWELL ACROSS THE EQUATOR LATE FRI REACHING THE
COAST FROM PANAMA TO SE MEXICO SAT.

$$
PAW



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 182037
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
2100 UTC THU SEP 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF
THE TRACK COULD REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 105.9W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT.......100NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE  75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 105.9W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 105.6W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.5N 106.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.2N 107.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.8N 110.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 22.0N 115.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 22.0N 117.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 105.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





000
WTPZ32 KNHC 182037
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS A WEAKER POLO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 105.9W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 435 MI...705 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF
THE TRACK COULD REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO
THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
TODAY...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 15 INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF
GUERRERO...MICHOACAN...COLIMA AND JALISCO STATES IN MEXICO.  THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 182037
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
2100 UTC THU SEP 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF
THE TRACK COULD REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 105.9W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT.......100NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE  75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 105.9W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 105.6W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.5N 106.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.2N 107.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.8N 110.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 22.0N 115.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 22.0N 117.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 105.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





000
WTPZ32 KNHC 182037
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS A WEAKER POLO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 105.9W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 435 MI...705 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF
THE TRACK COULD REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO
THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
TODAY...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 15 INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF
GUERRERO...MICHOACAN...COLIMA AND JALISCO STATES IN MEXICO.  THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 182037
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
2100 UTC THU SEP 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF
THE TRACK COULD REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 105.9W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT.......100NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE  75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 105.9W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 105.6W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.5N 106.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.2N 107.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.8N 110.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 22.0N 115.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 22.0N 117.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 105.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 182037
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS A WEAKER POLO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 105.9W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 435 MI...705 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF
THE TRACK COULD REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO
THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
TODAY...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 15 INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF
GUERRERO...MICHOACAN...COLIMA AND JALISCO STATES IN MEXICO.  THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 182037
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
2100 UTC THU SEP 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF
THE TRACK COULD REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 105.9W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT.......100NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE  75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 105.9W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 105.6W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.5N 106.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.2N 107.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.8N 110.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 22.0N 115.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 22.0N 117.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 105.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 182037
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS A WEAKER POLO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 105.9W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 435 MI...705 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF
THE TRACK COULD REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO
THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
TODAY...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 15 INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF
GUERRERO...MICHOACAN...COLIMA AND JALISCO STATES IN MEXICO.  THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTNT31 KNHC 182036
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 PM AST THU SEP 18 2014

...EDOUARD WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE FAR NORTH
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.9N 41.3W
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM WNW OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.3 WEST. EDOUARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS FROM EDOUARD ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA
AND PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF FLORIDA. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS
THROUGH TODAY. PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



000
WTNT21 KNHC 182035
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
2100 UTC THU SEP 18 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  41.3W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE 120SE  90SW  50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 200SE 180SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 300SE 360SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  41.3W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  42.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.9N  39.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  90SE  50SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 160SE 140SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 39.8N  37.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  90SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 39.8N  35.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 39.8N  33.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 37.0N  30.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 32.5N  31.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.9N  41.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTNT21 KNHC 182035
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
2100 UTC THU SEP 18 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  41.3W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE 120SE  90SW  50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 200SE 180SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 300SE 360SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  41.3W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  42.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.9N  39.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  90SE  50SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 160SE 140SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 39.8N  37.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  90SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 39.8N  35.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 39.8N  33.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 37.0N  30.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 32.5N  31.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.9N  41.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTNT21 KNHC 182035
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
2100 UTC THU SEP 18 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  41.3W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE 120SE  90SW  50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 200SE 180SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 300SE 360SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  41.3W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  42.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.9N  39.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  90SE  50SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 160SE 140SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 39.8N  37.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  90SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 39.8N  35.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 39.8N  33.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 37.0N  30.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 32.5N  31.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.9N  41.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTNT21 KNHC 182035
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
2100 UTC THU SEP 18 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  41.3W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE 120SE  90SW  50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 200SE 180SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 300SE 360SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  41.3W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  42.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.9N  39.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  90SE  50SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 160SE 140SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 39.8N  37.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  90SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 39.8N  35.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 39.8N  33.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 37.0N  30.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 32.5N  31.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.9N  41.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 181803
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT JUEVES 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN EDOUARD...LOCALIZADO A 900 MILLAS AL OESTE DE LOS AZORES
OCCIDENTALES.

UNA ONDA TROPICAL, ACOMPANADA POR UN AMPLIO SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION,
ESTA LOCALIZADA JUSTO AFUERA DE LA COSTA OESTE DE AFRICA. AUNQUE LA
ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS PERMANECE DESORGANIZADA, SE ESPERA
QUA LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES PERMANESCAN AL MENOS MARGINALMENTE
FAVORBALES PARA ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A
NOROESTE SOBRE EL LEJANO ESTE DEL ATLANTICO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

UN AREA AMPLIA DE DE BAJA PRESION PODRIA FORMARSE AFUERA DE LA COSTA
ESTE DE LA FLORIDA DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA. ESTE SISTEMA TENDRA
ALGUN POTENCIAL DE ADQUIRIR CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES MIENTRAS DE
MUEVE AL NORESTE CERCA O MAR AFUERA DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS
ESTADOS UNIDOS.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART






000
ACCA62 TJSJ 181803
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT JUEVES 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN EDOUARD...LOCALIZADO A 900 MILLAS AL OESTE DE LOS AZORES
OCCIDENTALES.

UNA ONDA TROPICAL, ACOMPANADA POR UN AMPLIO SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION,
ESTA LOCALIZADA JUSTO AFUERA DE LA COSTA OESTE DE AFRICA. AUNQUE LA
ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS PERMANECE DESORGANIZADA, SE ESPERA
QUA LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES PERMANESCAN AL MENOS MARGINALMENTE
FAVORBALES PARA ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A
NOROESTE SOBRE EL LEJANO ESTE DEL ATLANTICO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

UN AREA AMPLIA DE DE BAJA PRESION PODRIA FORMARSE AFUERA DE LA COSTA
ESTE DE LA FLORIDA DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA. ESTE SISTEMA TENDRA
ALGUN POTENCIAL DE ADQUIRIR CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES MIENTRAS DE
MUEVE AL NORESTE CERCA O MAR AFUERA DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS
ESTADOS UNIDOS.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART






000
ACCA62 TJSJ 181803
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT JUEVES 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN EDOUARD...LOCALIZADO A 900 MILLAS AL OESTE DE LOS AZORES
OCCIDENTALES.

UNA ONDA TROPICAL, ACOMPANADA POR UN AMPLIO SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION,
ESTA LOCALIZADA JUSTO AFUERA DE LA COSTA OESTE DE AFRICA. AUNQUE LA
ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS PERMANECE DESORGANIZADA, SE ESPERA
QUA LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES PERMANESCAN AL MENOS MARGINALMENTE
FAVORBALES PARA ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A
NOROESTE SOBRE EL LEJANO ESTE DEL ATLANTICO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

UN AREA AMPLIA DE DE BAJA PRESION PODRIA FORMARSE AFUERA DE LA COSTA
ESTE DE LA FLORIDA DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA. ESTE SISTEMA TENDRA
ALGUN POTENCIAL DE ADQUIRIR CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES MIENTRAS DE
MUEVE AL NORESTE CERCA O MAR AFUERA DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS
ESTADOS UNIDOS.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART






000
ACCA62 TJSJ 181803
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT JUEVES 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN EDOUARD...LOCALIZADO A 900 MILLAS AL OESTE DE LOS AZORES
OCCIDENTALES.

UNA ONDA TROPICAL, ACOMPANADA POR UN AMPLIO SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION,
ESTA LOCALIZADA JUSTO AFUERA DE LA COSTA OESTE DE AFRICA. AUNQUE LA
ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS PERMANECE DESORGANIZADA, SE ESPERA
QUA LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES PERMANESCAN AL MENOS MARGINALMENTE
FAVORBALES PARA ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A
NOROESTE SOBRE EL LEJANO ESTE DEL ATLANTICO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

UN AREA AMPLIA DE DE BAJA PRESION PODRIA FORMARSE AFUERA DE LA COSTA
ESTE DE LA FLORIDA DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA. ESTE SISTEMA TENDRA
ALGUN POTENCIAL DE ADQUIRIR CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES MIENTRAS DE
MUEVE AL NORESTE CERCA O MAR AFUERA DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS
ESTADOS UNIDOS.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART






000
ACPN50 PHFO 181745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST THU SEP 18 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CENTERED NEAR 900
EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND IS MOVING WEST AT AROUND 10 MPH.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
*FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
*FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

$$

FOSTER










000
ACCA62 TJSJ 181741
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT JUEVES 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN EDOUARD...LOCALIZADO A 900 MILLAS AL OESTE DE LOS AZORES
OCCIDENTALES.

UNA ONDA TROPICAL, ACOMPANADA POR UN AMPLIO SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION,
ESTA LOCALIZADA JUSTO FUERA DE LA COSTA OESTE DE AFRICA. AUNQUE LA
ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS PERMANECE DESORGANIZADA, SE ESPERA
EUA LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES PERMANECERAN AL MENOS MARGINALMENTE
FAVORBALES PARA ALGUN DESARROLLO LENTO DE ESTE SISTEMA DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A
NOROESTE SOBRE EL LEJANO ESTE DEL ATLANTICO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

UN AREA AMPLIA DE DE BAJA PRESION PODRIA FORMARSE MAR AFUERA DE LA
COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA. ESTE SISTEMA TENDRA
EL POTENCIAL DE ADQUIRIR CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES MIENTRAS DE
MUEVE AL NORESTE CERCA O MAR AFUERA DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS
ESTADOS UNIDOS.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 181741
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT JUEVES 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN EDOUARD...LOCALIZADO A 900 MILLAS AL OESTE DE LOS AZORES
OCCIDENTALES.

UNA ONDA TROPICAL, ACOMPANADA POR UN AMPLIO SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION,
ESTA LOCALIZADA JUSTO FUERA DE LA COSTA OESTE DE AFRICA. AUNQUE LA
ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS PERMANECE DESORGANIZADA, SE ESPERA
EUA LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES PERMANECERAN AL MENOS MARGINALMENTE
FAVORBALES PARA ALGUN DESARROLLO LENTO DE ESTE SISTEMA DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A
NOROESTE SOBRE EL LEJANO ESTE DEL ATLANTICO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

UN AREA AMPLIA DE DE BAJA PRESION PODRIA FORMARSE MAR AFUERA DE LA
COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA. ESTE SISTEMA TENDRA
EL POTENCIAL DE ADQUIRIR CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES MIENTRAS DE
MUEVE AL NORESTE CERCA O MAR AFUERA DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS
ESTADOS UNIDOS.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART





000
AXNT20 KNHC 181735
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 18/1500 UTC...HURRICANE EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 39.9N
42.7W MOVING E AT 22 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TODAY
...FOLLOWED BY A SLOWER EASTWARD MOTION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 37N-43N BETWEEN 41W-46W.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF AFRICA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N17W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N18W. METEOSAT SAL
IMAGERY SHOW BOTH DUST AND DRY AIR IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE
WAVE...MAINLY TO THE NW OF IT WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO
THE AREA NEAR THE LOW AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 06N-13N E OF 22W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N42W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 15N43W TO
11N44W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS
NOTICED IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE WHICH IS LIMITING
CONVECTION TO JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 37W-43W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF THE PUERTO RICO TRENCH WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N64W TO 11N64W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS ENHANCED AT UPPER LEVELS BY A LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N65W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THIS WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 60W-
65W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO
A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N18W TO 14N35W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS W OF A
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N47W AND CONTINUES TO 08N60W. OTHER THAN
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY
DISCUSSED...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN
45W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN U.S. TO THE WEST
ATLC NEAR 60W WITH BASE EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE SW N
ATLC. TO THE W OF THIS TROUGH...AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 25N106W. WITH THESE FEATURES...UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT LOW LEVELS...A
SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 27N90W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE ATLC ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN GULF WATERS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM
24N-29N W OF 92W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...NO CONVECTION IS
NOTICED. FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...A FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WILL MOVE S ACROSS THE PENINSULA
WHILE THE PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER GULF WATERS WILL STALL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL GULF. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE GULF ON FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF W
VENEZUELA NEAR 11N68W. THIS SYSTEM PAIRED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW ACROSS THE ATLC N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 25N65W ARE KEEPING A
DIFFLUENT FLOW NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N83W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ALSO NOTICED
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF PANAMA NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 13N. DEEP LAYER
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR INHIBITS CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...A
RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TRADES OF 10-15 KT
ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA ON FRIDAY AND ACROSS CUBA BY
SATURDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

NO CONVECTION IS PRESENT ACROSS THE ISLAND. DIURNAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE BY FRIDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC E OF 55W.
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS ALSO PRESENT ACROSS THAT AREA
INHIBITING CONVECTION. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
WATERS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 25N65W. AT LOW LEVELS...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT NEAR THE UPPER-LOW N OR
PUERTO RICO AND ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN 58W-
65W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN GULF WATERS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 67W-80W. FOR CONVECTION RELATED
TO THE TROPICAL WAVES...PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 181735
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 18/1500 UTC...HURRICANE EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 39.9N
42.7W MOVING E AT 22 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TODAY
...FOLLOWED BY A SLOWER EASTWARD MOTION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 37N-43N BETWEEN 41W-46W.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF AFRICA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N17W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N18W. METEOSAT SAL
IMAGERY SHOW BOTH DUST AND DRY AIR IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE
WAVE...MAINLY TO THE NW OF IT WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO
THE AREA NEAR THE LOW AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 06N-13N E OF 22W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N42W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 15N43W TO
11N44W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS
NOTICED IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE WHICH IS LIMITING
CONVECTION TO JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 37W-43W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF THE PUERTO RICO TRENCH WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N64W TO 11N64W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS ENHANCED AT UPPER LEVELS BY A LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N65W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THIS WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 60W-
65W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO
A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N18W TO 14N35W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS W OF A
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N47W AND CONTINUES TO 08N60W. OTHER THAN
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY
DISCUSSED...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN
45W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN U.S. TO THE WEST
ATLC NEAR 60W WITH BASE EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE SW N
ATLC. TO THE W OF THIS TROUGH...AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 25N106W. WITH THESE FEATURES...UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT LOW LEVELS...A
SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 27N90W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE ATLC ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN GULF WATERS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM
24N-29N W OF 92W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...NO CONVECTION IS
NOTICED. FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...A FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WILL MOVE S ACROSS THE PENINSULA
WHILE THE PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER GULF WATERS WILL STALL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL GULF. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE GULF ON FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF W
VENEZUELA NEAR 11N68W. THIS SYSTEM PAIRED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW ACROSS THE ATLC N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 25N65W ARE KEEPING A
DIFFLUENT FLOW NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N83W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ALSO NOTICED
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF PANAMA NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 13N. DEEP LAYER
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR INHIBITS CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...A
RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TRADES OF 10-15 KT
ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA ON FRIDAY AND ACROSS CUBA BY
SATURDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

NO CONVECTION IS PRESENT ACROSS THE ISLAND. DIURNAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE BY FRIDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC E OF 55W.
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS ALSO PRESENT ACROSS THAT AREA
INHIBITING CONVECTION. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
WATERS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 25N65W. AT LOW LEVELS...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT NEAR THE UPPER-LOW N OR
PUERTO RICO AND ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN 58W-
65W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN GULF WATERS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 67W-80W. FOR CONVECTION RELATED
TO THE TROPICAL WAVES...PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 181734
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1100 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT APPROACHING POLO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 105.8W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO TODAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK
COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER. AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING HURRICANE POLO.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 15 INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF
GUERRERO...MICHOACAN...COLIMA AND JALISCO STATES IN MEXICO.  THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 181734
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1100 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT APPROACHING POLO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 105.8W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO TODAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK
COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER. AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING HURRICANE POLO.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 15 INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF
GUERRERO...MICHOACAN...COLIMA AND JALISCO STATES IN MEXICO.  THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 181734
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1100 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT APPROACHING POLO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 105.8W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO TODAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK
COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER. AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING HURRICANE POLO.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 15 INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF
GUERRERO...MICHOACAN...COLIMA AND JALISCO STATES IN MEXICO.  THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 181734
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1100 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT APPROACHING POLO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 105.8W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO TODAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK
COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER. AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING HURRICANE POLO.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 15 INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF
GUERRERO...MICHOACAN...COLIMA AND JALISCO STATES IN MEXICO.  THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181718
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Polo, located less than 200 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
The Weather Prediction Center in Washington, DC, is issuing
advisories on the remnants of Odile, located over extreme
southeastern Arizona.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181718
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Polo, located less than 200 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
The Weather Prediction Center in Washington, DC, is issuing
advisories on the remnants of Odile, located over extreme
southeastern Arizona.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 181715
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Edouard, located about 900 miles west of the western Azores.

A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure system, is
located just off of the west coast of Africa. Although shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, environmental conditions
are expected to be at least marginally conducive for some gradual
development of this system over the next several days while it moves
slowly west-northwestward to northwestward over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A broad area of low pressure could form off of the east coast of
Florida over the weekend. This system will have some potential to
acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics while it moves
northeastward near or offshore of the southeastern coast of the
United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 181715
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Edouard, located about 900 miles west of the western Azores.

A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure system, is
located just off of the west coast of Africa. Although shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, environmental conditions
are expected to be at least marginally conducive for some gradual
development of this system over the next several days while it moves
slowly west-northwestward to northwestward over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A broad area of low pressure could form off of the east coast of
Florida over the weekend. This system will have some potential to
acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics while it moves
northeastward near or offshore of the southeastern coast of the
United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 181715
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Edouard, located about 900 miles west of the western Azores.

A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure system, is
located just off of the west coast of Africa. Although shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, environmental conditions
are expected to be at least marginally conducive for some gradual
development of this system over the next several days while it moves
slowly west-northwestward to northwestward over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A broad area of low pressure could form off of the east coast of
Florida over the weekend. This system will have some potential to
acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics while it moves
northeastward near or offshore of the southeastern coast of the
United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 181715
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Edouard, located about 900 miles west of the western Azores.

A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure system, is
located just off of the west coast of Africa. Although shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, environmental conditions
are expected to be at least marginally conducive for some gradual
development of this system over the next several days while it moves
slowly west-northwestward to northwestward over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A broad area of low pressure could form off of the east coast of
Florida over the weekend. This system will have some potential to
acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics while it moves
northeastward near or offshore of the southeastern coast of the
United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181527
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU SEP 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR NEAR 17.3N 105.7W 988 MB AT 1500
UTC SEP 18...OR ABOUT 150 MILES SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...MOVING
NW OR 310 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80
KT. AT 1500 UTC NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN
102W-108W. POLO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NW TODAY AND
PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...THEN GRADUALLY
BEND MORE W-NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR HAS BEGUN TO IMPACT POLO...AND WILL LIMIT
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BEYOND THAT TIME...COOLER
WATERS AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF POLO. AS POLO PASSES BY THE MEXICAN
COASTLINE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OUTER BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE COASTAL ZONES FROM
WESTERN GUERRERO TO JALISCO...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY
AFFECTED BY NORBERT AND ODILE. SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC
AND FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N84W TO 8N90W TO 11N102W...THEN
RESUMES SW OF HURRICANE POLO NEAR 15N107W TO 11N124W. ITCZ FROM
11N124W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM
5N-9N BETWEEN 84W-89W AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 100W-102W.

...DISCUSSION...                                              A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 23N140W. NW SWELL
BEHIND THE FRONT IS MAINTAINING SEAS TO 8-9 FT. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
BELOW 8 FT FRI.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS W OF
120W CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS N OF
THE ITCZ. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

LONG PERIOD SW SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL AFFECTING THE WATERS E
OF 110W THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SUBSIDED AND WILL SLOWLY FADE
THROUGH FRI...WITH A NEW AND SMALLER PULSE OF SW SWELL ACROSS
THE EQUATOR OVER THE WEEKEND.

$$
DGS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181527
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU SEP 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR NEAR 17.3N 105.7W 988 MB AT 1500
UTC SEP 18...OR ABOUT 150 MILES SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...MOVING
NW OR 310 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80
KT. AT 1500 UTC NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN
102W-108W. POLO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NW TODAY AND
PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...THEN GRADUALLY
BEND MORE W-NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR HAS BEGUN TO IMPACT POLO...AND WILL LIMIT
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BEYOND THAT TIME...COOLER
WATERS AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF POLO. AS POLO PASSES BY THE MEXICAN
COASTLINE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OUTER BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE COASTAL ZONES FROM
WESTERN GUERRERO TO JALISCO...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY
AFFECTED BY NORBERT AND ODILE. SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC
AND FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N84W TO 8N90W TO 11N102W...THEN
RESUMES SW OF HURRICANE POLO NEAR 15N107W TO 11N124W. ITCZ FROM
11N124W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM
5N-9N BETWEEN 84W-89W AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 100W-102W.

...DISCUSSION...                                              A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 23N140W. NW SWELL
BEHIND THE FRONT IS MAINTAINING SEAS TO 8-9 FT. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
BELOW 8 FT FRI.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS W OF
120W CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS N OF
THE ITCZ. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

LONG PERIOD SW SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL AFFECTING THE WATERS E
OF 110W THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SUBSIDED AND WILL SLOWLY FADE
THROUGH FRI...WITH A NEW AND SMALLER PULSE OF SW SWELL ACROSS
THE EQUATOR OVER THE WEEKEND.

$$
DGS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181527
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU SEP 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR NEAR 17.3N 105.7W 988 MB AT 1500
UTC SEP 18...OR ABOUT 150 MILES SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...MOVING
NW OR 310 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80
KT. AT 1500 UTC NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN
102W-108W. POLO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NW TODAY AND
PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...THEN GRADUALLY
BEND MORE W-NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR HAS BEGUN TO IMPACT POLO...AND WILL LIMIT
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BEYOND THAT TIME...COOLER
WATERS AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF POLO. AS POLO PASSES BY THE MEXICAN
COASTLINE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OUTER BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE COASTAL ZONES FROM
WESTERN GUERRERO TO JALISCO...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY
AFFECTED BY NORBERT AND ODILE. SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC
AND FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N84W TO 8N90W TO 11N102W...THEN
RESUMES SW OF HURRICANE POLO NEAR 15N107W TO 11N124W. ITCZ FROM
11N124W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM
5N-9N BETWEEN 84W-89W AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 100W-102W.

...DISCUSSION...                                              A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 23N140W. NW SWELL
BEHIND THE FRONT IS MAINTAINING SEAS TO 8-9 FT. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
BELOW 8 FT FRI.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS W OF
120W CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS N OF
THE ITCZ. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

LONG PERIOD SW SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL AFFECTING THE WATERS E
OF 110W THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SUBSIDED AND WILL SLOWLY FADE
THROUGH FRI...WITH A NEW AND SMALLER PULSE OF SW SWELL ACROSS
THE EQUATOR OVER THE WEEKEND.

$$
DGS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181527
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU SEP 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR NEAR 17.3N 105.7W 988 MB AT 1500
UTC SEP 18...OR ABOUT 150 MILES SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...MOVING
NW OR 310 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80
KT. AT 1500 UTC NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN
102W-108W. POLO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NW TODAY AND
PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...THEN GRADUALLY
BEND MORE W-NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR HAS BEGUN TO IMPACT POLO...AND WILL LIMIT
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BEYOND THAT TIME...COOLER
WATERS AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF POLO. AS POLO PASSES BY THE MEXICAN
COASTLINE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OUTER BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE COASTAL ZONES FROM
WESTERN GUERRERO TO JALISCO...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY
AFFECTED BY NORBERT AND ODILE. SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC
AND FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N84W TO 8N90W TO 11N102W...THEN
RESUMES SW OF HURRICANE POLO NEAR 15N107W TO 11N124W. ITCZ FROM
11N124W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM
5N-9N BETWEEN 84W-89W AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 100W-102W.

...DISCUSSION...                                              A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 23N140W. NW SWELL
BEHIND THE FRONT IS MAINTAINING SEAS TO 8-9 FT. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
BELOW 8 FT FRI.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS W OF
120W CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS N OF
THE ITCZ. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

LONG PERIOD SW SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL AFFECTING THE WATERS E
OF 110W THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SUBSIDED AND WILL SLOWLY FADE
THROUGH FRI...WITH A NEW AND SMALLER PULSE OF SW SWELL ACROSS
THE EQUATOR OVER THE WEEKEND.

$$
DGS


000
WTPZ35 KWNH 181459
TCPEP5

REMNANTS OF ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD EP152014
800 AM MST THU SEP 18 2014

...REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ODILE IS MOVING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA WHILE HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 109.8W
ABOUT 20 MILES...30 KM...NW OF DOUGLAS ARIZONA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...20 MPH...30 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 075 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO...AND PORTIONS OF WEST
TEXAS.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST. THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ODILE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...WITH
EMBEDDED POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN...FALLING PRIMARILY EAST OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA...SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND WESTERN TEXAS. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
INTERACTS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN ENDING ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY TOMORROW
EVENING AND TEXAS BY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 20 MPH...30 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS
-------
RAINFALL...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.  THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.  RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE ALL NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS TO MITIGATE THESE POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATIONS.


RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 7 AM MST

...ARIZONA...
DOUGLAS 7.3 WNW                      3.30
CLUFF RANCH                          3.15
HEREFORD 9.0 SW                      3.10
DOUGLAS BISBEE INTL ARPT             2.75
NOGALES INTL ARPT                    2.66
SIERRA VISTA 9.2 SSE                 2.63
FORT HUACHUCA                        2.33
DAVIDSON CANYON AT I-10              2.09
FALCON FIELD                         2.01
ITALIAN TRAP (REDINGTON PASS)        1.93
FRYE MESA RESERVOIR                  1.77
SAN SIMON 2.6 S                      1.65
DAN SADDLE (UPPER CDO)               1.65
SAFFORD MUNI ARPT                    1.44

...NEW MEXICO...
MOGOLLON 3 WSW                       4.06
CHAPARRAL 0.4 SE                     3.50
RODEO 5.0 NNE                        3.34
BONITO LAKE 6 WSW                    3.10
SAN ANTONIO 25.6 SSW                 3.06
BOSQUE DEL APACHE REFUGE 19 SW       3.06
HILLSBORO 0.1 ESE                    2.23
LA JOYA 2 WNW                        2.15
DEMING MUNI ARPT                     2.11
CUTTER                               2.10
CAPITAN 2 SW                         2.00
DATIL 11 NNE                         1.56
SOCORRO 2 S                          1.43
LAS CRUCES INTL ARPT                 1.36
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES MUNI ARPT      1.09

...TEXAS...
EL PASO 8 E                          3.11
KELP 3 SE                            3.00
EL PASO INTL ARPT                    2.47
MONTANA VISTA 4 NE                   2.20
LUBBOCK INTL ARPT                    1.17


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT  200 PM MST. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.

FORECASTER MONARSKI
$$





000
WTPZ35 KWNH 181454
TCPEP5

REMNANTS OF ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD EP152014
900 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

...REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ODILE IS MOVING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA WHILE HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS...

SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 109.8W
ABOUT 25 MILES...40 KM...W OF DOUGLAS BISBEE ARIZONA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...20 MPH...30 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 075 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO...AND PORTIONS OF WEST
TEXAS.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST. THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ODILE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...WITH
EMBEDDED POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN...FALLING PRIMARILY EAST OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA...SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND WESTERN TEXAS. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
INTERACTS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN ENDING ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY TOMORROW
EVENING AND TEXAS BY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 20 MPH...30 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS
-------
RAINFALL...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.  RESIDENTS ARE
ADVISED TO TAKE ALL NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO MITIGATE THESE
POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING SITUATIONS.


RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 8 AM MDT

...ARIZONA...
DOUGLAS 7.3 WNW                      3.30
CLUFF RANCH                          3.15
HEREFORD 9.0 SW                      3.10
DOUGLAS BISBEE INTL ARPT             2.75
NOGALES INTL ARPT                    2.66
SIERRA VISTA 9.2 SSE                 2.63
FORT HUACHUCA                        2.33
DAVIDSON CANYON AT I-10              2.09
FALCON FIELD                         2.01
ITALIAN TRAP (REDINGTON PASS)        1.93
FRYE MESA RESERVOIR                  1.77
SAN SIMON 2.6 S                      1.65
DAN SADDLE (UPPER CDO)               1.65
SAFFORD MUNI ARPT                    1.44

...NEW MEXICO...
MOGOLLON 3 WSW                       4.06
CHAPARRAL 0.4 SE                     3.50
RODEO 5.0 NNE                        3.34
BONITO LAKE 6 WSW                    3.10
SAN ANTONIO 25.6 SSW                 3.06
BOSQUE DEL APACHE REFUGE 19 SW       3.06
HILLSBORO 0.1 ESE                    2.23
LA JOYA 2 WNW                        2.15
DEMING MUNI ARPT                     2.11
CUTTER                               2.10
CAPITAN 2 SW                         2.00
DATIL 11 NNE                         1.56
SOCORRO 2 S                          1.43
LAS CRUCES INTL ARPT                 1.36
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES MUNI ARPT      1.09

...TEXAS...
EL PASO 8 E                          3.11
KELP 3 SE                            3.00
EL PASO INTL ARPT                    2.47
MONTANA VISTA 4 NE                   2.20
LUBBOCK INTL ARPT                    1.17


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT  300 PM MDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.

FORECASTER MONARSKI
$$





000
WTNT31 KNHC 181435
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014

...EDOUARD GRADUALLY WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.9N 42.7W
ABOUT 755 MI...1210 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.7 WEST. EDOUARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/H. A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SLOWER EASTWARD
MOTION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY
TONIGHT...AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS FROM EDOUARD ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA
AND PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF FLORIDA. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS
THROUGH TODAY. PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



000
WTNT31 KNHC 181435
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014

...EDOUARD GRADUALLY WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.9N 42.7W
ABOUT 755 MI...1210 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.7 WEST. EDOUARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/H. A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SLOWER EASTWARD
MOTION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY
TONIGHT...AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS FROM EDOUARD ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA
AND PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF FLORIDA. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS
THROUGH TODAY. PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 181435
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1500 UTC THU SEP 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 105.7W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 105.7W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 105.3W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.0N 106.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.7N 107.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.5N 108.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.4N 109.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 22.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 105.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ32 KNHC 181435
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

...POLO REMAINS WITH 75 MPH WINDS...
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON ITS WAY TO POLO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 105.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST. POLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...POLO WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
TODAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING
STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER. AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE POLO LATER
TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM. A MEXICAN WEATHER STATION AT THE MANZANILLO AIRPORT
IS REPORTING GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER RAIN BANDS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 15 INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF
GUERRERO...MICHOACAN...COLIMA AND JALISCO STATES IN MEXICO.  THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 181435
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1500 UTC THU SEP 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 105.7W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 105.7W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 105.3W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.0N 106.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.7N 107.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.5N 108.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.4N 109.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 22.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 105.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





000
WTPZ32 KNHC 181435
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

...POLO REMAINS WITH 75 MPH WINDS...
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON ITS WAY TO POLO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 105.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST. POLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...POLO WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
TODAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING
STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER. AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE POLO LATER
TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM. A MEXICAN WEATHER STATION AT THE MANZANILLO AIRPORT
IS REPORTING GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER RAIN BANDS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 15 INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF
GUERRERO...MICHOACAN...COLIMA AND JALISCO STATES IN MEXICO.  THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 181435
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1500 UTC THU SEP 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 105.7W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 105.7W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 105.3W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.0N 106.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.7N 107.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.5N 108.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.4N 109.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 22.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 105.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





000
WTPZ32 KNHC 181435
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

...POLO REMAINS WITH 75 MPH WINDS...
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON ITS WAY TO POLO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 105.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST. POLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...POLO WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
TODAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING
STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER. AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE POLO LATER
TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM. A MEXICAN WEATHER STATION AT THE MANZANILLO AIRPORT
IS REPORTING GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER RAIN BANDS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 15 INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF
GUERRERO...MICHOACAN...COLIMA AND JALISCO STATES IN MEXICO.  THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTNT21 KNHC 181433
TCMAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1500 UTC THU SEP 18 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  42.7W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  85 DEGREES AT  22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  80SE  70SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 120SE  90SW  50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 200SE 180SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 300SE 340SW 430NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  42.7W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  43.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 40.1N  39.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  90SE  70SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 160SE 140SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 39.9N  37.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  90SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 40.0N  36.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 40.0N  34.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 37.5N  30.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 33.0N  30.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.9N  42.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN





000
WTNT21 KNHC 181433
TCMAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1500 UTC THU SEP 18 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  42.7W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  85 DEGREES AT  22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  80SE  70SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 120SE  90SW  50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 200SE 180SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 300SE 340SW 430NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  42.7W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  43.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 40.1N  39.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  90SE  70SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 160SE 140SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 39.9N  37.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  90SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 40.0N  36.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 40.0N  34.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 37.5N  30.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 33.0N  30.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.9N  42.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
ACPN50 PHFO 181145
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST THU SEP 18 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CENTERED NEAR 980
EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND IS MOVING WEST SLOWLY. CONDITIONS
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
*FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT 560
MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
*FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

3. A THIRD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CENTERED NEAR 790
MILES SOUTH OF OAHU. CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. *FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48
HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

$$

LAU








000
ACPN50 PHFO 181145
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST THU SEP 18 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CENTERED NEAR 980
EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND IS MOVING WEST SLOWLY. CONDITIONS
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
*FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT 560
MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
*FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

3. A THIRD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CENTERED NEAR 790
MILES SOUTH OF OAHU. CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. *FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48
HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

$$

LAU







000
WTPZ32 KNHC 181131
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
500 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

...POLO MOVING PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 105.3W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST. POLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL MOVE
PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.  HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO
THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AFTER THAT...POLO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE POLO LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 15 INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF
GUERRERO...MICHOACAN...COLIMA AND JALISCO STATES IN MEXICO.  THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 181131
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
500 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

...POLO MOVING PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 105.3W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST. POLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL MOVE
PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.  HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO
THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AFTER THAT...POLO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE POLO LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 15 INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF
GUERRERO...MICHOACAN...COLIMA AND JALISCO STATES IN MEXICO.  THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 181123
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT JUEVES 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN EDOUARD...LOCALIZADO A 900 MILLAS APROXIMADAMENTE AL OESTE
DE AZORES.

UNA ONDA TROPICAL, ACOMPANADA POR UN AMPLIO SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION,
ESTA LOCALIZADA JUSTO FUERA DE LA COSTA OESTE DE AFRICA. AUNQUE LA
ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS PERMANECE DESORGANIZADA, SE ESPERA
EUA LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES PERMANECERAN MARGINALMENTE
FAVORBALES PARA ALGUN DESARROLLO LENTO DE ESTE SISTEMA DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A
NOROESTE SOBRE EL LEJANO ESTE DEL ATLANTICO.

* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART




000
ABNT20 KNHC 181117
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Edouard, located about 900 miles west of the western Azores.

A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure system, is
located just off of the west coast of Africa. Although shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, environmental conditions
are expected to be at least marginally conducive for some gradual
development of this system over the next several days while it moves
slowly west-northwestward to northwestward over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 181117
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Edouard, located about 900 miles west of the western Azores.

A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure system, is
located just off of the west coast of Africa. Although shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, environmental conditions
are expected to be at least marginally conducive for some gradual
development of this system over the next several days while it moves
slowly west-northwestward to northwestward over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181110
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Polo, located less than 200 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico. The Weather Prediction Center in Washington, DC, is issuing
advisories on the remnants of Odile, located over extreme
southeastern Arizona.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181110
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Polo, located less than 200 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico. The Weather Prediction Center in Washington, DC, is issuing
advisories on the remnants of Odile, located over extreme
southeastern Arizona.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
AXNT20 KNHC 181052
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 18/0900 UTC...HURRICANE EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 39.6N
45.3W OR ABOUT 775 NM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MOVING E-NE AT 24 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 37N-43N BETWEEN 41W-
46W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS RIGHT OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF AFRICA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N17W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N17W. METEOSAT RGB
AND SAL IMAGERY SHOW BOTH DUST AND DRY AIR ENGULFING THE N-NW
WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH REMAINS DEVOID OF CONVECTION. MAINLY
THICK HIGH CLOUDS ARE TO THE S-SW OF THE WAVE WHERE SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OBSERVED FROM 5N-13N
EAST OF 28W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N40W TO 10N43W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THE
GOES-R SEVIRI DUST PRODUCT SHOW DUST ON THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
WAVE ENVIRONMENT AND LOW TO HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NORTHERN WAVE
REGION WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE NOTED FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 34W-42W. THE REST OF THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT IS DEVOID OF CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 26N59W TO 11N61W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN THE NORTHERN WAVE
ENVIRONMENT AND EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH TO 14N. GOES-R SEVIRI
DUST PRODUCT SHOW LOW TO HIGH CLOUDS IN THIS REGION OF
CONVECTION. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS HINDERING
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N17W TO 12N36W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS WEST
OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N45W AND CONTINUES TO 8N58W. OTHER
THAN THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY
DISCUSSED...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN
44W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W WITH ITS BASE EXTENDING ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE SW N ATLC. SOUTHWEST OF THE TROUGH ALOFT...THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE. MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE NW...SW
AND SE GULF...WHICH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
TROUGHINESS ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 26N80W TO
25N84W...WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION IN THE SE BASIN. DRY
AIR AND STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR SUPPRESS
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT STARTED MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
ACROSS THE REMAINDER PENINSULA TODAY WHILE THE PORTION OF THE
FRONT OVER GULF WATERS IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TO CENTRAL GULF. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION COMPLETELY
TO A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE GULF ON FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NE BASIN BEING SUPPORTED BY ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ON THE NW BASIN AND A
RIDGE DOMINATING ELSEWHERE. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ENHANCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 19N BETWEEN 70W-83W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION
ON THE NE BASIN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. STRONG DEEP
LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR INHIBITS CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE...A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
TRADES OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FRIDAY AND ACROSS CUBA
SATURDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

FORMER CONVECTION ON PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS HAS DISSIPATED.
RAINSHOWERS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO RESUME THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BY FRIDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A
TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W WITH ITS BASE EXTENDING ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE SW N ATLC. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH...A
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE
CARIBBEAN. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IN THE SW N ATLC WHICH ALONG ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
AND TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 68W-79W. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ALSO
FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 64W-67W. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TWO
TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED IN THE WAVES SECTION...SURFACE RIDGING
AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 181052
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 18/0900 UTC...HURRICANE EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 39.6N
45.3W OR ABOUT 775 NM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MOVING E-NE AT 24 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 37N-43N BETWEEN 41W-
46W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS RIGHT OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF AFRICA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N17W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N17W. METEOSAT RGB
AND SAL IMAGERY SHOW BOTH DUST AND DRY AIR ENGULFING THE N-NW
WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH REMAINS DEVOID OF CONVECTION. MAINLY
THICK HIGH CLOUDS ARE TO THE S-SW OF THE WAVE WHERE SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OBSERVED FROM 5N-13N
EAST OF 28W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N40W TO 10N43W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THE
GOES-R SEVIRI DUST PRODUCT SHOW DUST ON THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
WAVE ENVIRONMENT AND LOW TO HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NORTHERN WAVE
REGION WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE NOTED FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 34W-42W. THE REST OF THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT IS DEVOID OF CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 26N59W TO 11N61W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN THE NORTHERN WAVE
ENVIRONMENT AND EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH TO 14N. GOES-R SEVIRI
DUST PRODUCT SHOW LOW TO HIGH CLOUDS IN THIS REGION OF
CONVECTION. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS HINDERING
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N17W TO 12N36W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS WEST
OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N45W AND CONTINUES TO 8N58W. OTHER
THAN THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY
DISCUSSED...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN
44W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W WITH ITS BASE EXTENDING ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE SW N ATLC. SOUTHWEST OF THE TROUGH ALOFT...THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE. MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE NW...SW
AND SE GULF...WHICH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
TROUGHINESS ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 26N80W TO
25N84W...WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION IN THE SE BASIN. DRY
AIR AND STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR SUPPRESS
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT STARTED MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
ACROSS THE REMAINDER PENINSULA TODAY WHILE THE PORTION OF THE
FRONT OVER GULF WATERS IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TO CENTRAL GULF. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION COMPLETELY
TO A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE GULF ON FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NE BASIN BEING SUPPORTED BY ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ON THE NW BASIN AND A
RIDGE DOMINATING ELSEWHERE. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ENHANCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 19N BETWEEN 70W-83W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION
ON THE NE BASIN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. STRONG DEEP
LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR INHIBITS CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE...A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
TRADES OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FRIDAY AND ACROSS CUBA
SATURDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

FORMER CONVECTION ON PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS HAS DISSIPATED.
RAINSHOWERS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO RESUME THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BY FRIDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A
TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W WITH ITS BASE EXTENDING ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE SW N ATLC. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH...A
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE
CARIBBEAN. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IN THE SW N ATLC WHICH ALONG ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
AND TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 68W-79W. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ALSO
FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 64W-67W. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TWO
TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED IN THE WAVES SECTION...SURFACE RIDGING
AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 181052
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 18/0900 UTC...HURRICANE EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 39.6N
45.3W OR ABOUT 775 NM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MOVING E-NE AT 24 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 37N-43N BETWEEN 41W-
46W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS RIGHT OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF AFRICA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N17W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N17W. METEOSAT RGB
AND SAL IMAGERY SHOW BOTH DUST AND DRY AIR ENGULFING THE N-NW
WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH REMAINS DEVOID OF CONVECTION. MAINLY
THICK HIGH CLOUDS ARE TO THE S-SW OF THE WAVE WHERE SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OBSERVED FROM 5N-13N
EAST OF 28W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N40W TO 10N43W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THE
GOES-R SEVIRI DUST PRODUCT SHOW DUST ON THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
WAVE ENVIRONMENT AND LOW TO HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NORTHERN WAVE
REGION WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE NOTED FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 34W-42W. THE REST OF THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT IS DEVOID OF CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 26N59W TO 11N61W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN THE NORTHERN WAVE
ENVIRONMENT AND EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH TO 14N. GOES-R SEVIRI
DUST PRODUCT SHOW LOW TO HIGH CLOUDS IN THIS REGION OF
CONVECTION. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS HINDERING
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N17W TO 12N36W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS WEST
OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N45W AND CONTINUES TO 8N58W. OTHER
THAN THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY
DISCUSSED...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN
44W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W WITH ITS BASE EXTENDING ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE SW N ATLC. SOUTHWEST OF THE TROUGH ALOFT...THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE. MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE NW...SW
AND SE GULF...WHICH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
TROUGHINESS ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 26N80W TO
25N84W...WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION IN THE SE BASIN. DRY
AIR AND STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR SUPPRESS
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT STARTED MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
ACROSS THE REMAINDER PENINSULA TODAY WHILE THE PORTION OF THE
FRONT OVER GULF WATERS IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TO CENTRAL GULF. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION COMPLETELY
TO A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE GULF ON FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NE BASIN BEING SUPPORTED BY ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ON THE NW BASIN AND A
RIDGE DOMINATING ELSEWHERE. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ENHANCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 19N BETWEEN 70W-83W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION
ON THE NE BASIN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. STRONG DEEP
LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR INHIBITS CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE...A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
TRADES OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FRIDAY AND ACROSS CUBA
SATURDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

FORMER CONVECTION ON PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS HAS DISSIPATED.
RAINSHOWERS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO RESUME THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BY FRIDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A
TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W WITH ITS BASE EXTENDING ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE SW N ATLC. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH...A
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE
CARIBBEAN. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IN THE SW N ATLC WHICH ALONG ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
AND TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 68W-79W. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ALSO
FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 64W-67W. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TWO
TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED IN THE WAVES SECTION...SURFACE RIDGING
AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 181052
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 18/0900 UTC...HURRICANE EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 39.6N
45.3W OR ABOUT 775 NM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MOVING E-NE AT 24 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 37N-43N BETWEEN 41W-
46W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS RIGHT OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF AFRICA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N17W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N17W. METEOSAT RGB
AND SAL IMAGERY SHOW BOTH DUST AND DRY AIR ENGULFING THE N-NW
WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH REMAINS DEVOID OF CONVECTION. MAINLY
THICK HIGH CLOUDS ARE TO THE S-SW OF THE WAVE WHERE SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OBSERVED FROM 5N-13N
EAST OF 28W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N40W TO 10N43W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THE
GOES-R SEVIRI DUST PRODUCT SHOW DUST ON THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
WAVE ENVIRONMENT AND LOW TO HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NORTHERN WAVE
REGION WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE NOTED FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 34W-42W. THE REST OF THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT IS DEVOID OF CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 26N59W TO 11N61W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN THE NORTHERN WAVE
ENVIRONMENT AND EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH TO 14N. GOES-R SEVIRI
DUST PRODUCT SHOW LOW TO HIGH CLOUDS IN THIS REGION OF
CONVECTION. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS HINDERING
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N17W TO 12N36W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS WEST
OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N45W AND CONTINUES TO 8N58W. OTHER
THAN THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY
DISCUSSED...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN
44W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W WITH ITS BASE EXTENDING ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE SW N ATLC. SOUTHWEST OF THE TROUGH ALOFT...THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE. MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE NW...SW
AND SE GULF...WHICH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
TROUGHINESS ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 26N80W TO
25N84W...WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION IN THE SE BASIN. DRY
AIR AND STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR SUPPRESS
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT STARTED MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
ACROSS THE REMAINDER PENINSULA TODAY WHILE THE PORTION OF THE
FRONT OVER GULF WATERS IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TO CENTRAL GULF. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION COMPLETELY
TO A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE GULF ON FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NE BASIN BEING SUPPORTED BY ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ON THE NW BASIN AND A
RIDGE DOMINATING ELSEWHERE. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ENHANCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 19N BETWEEN 70W-83W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION
ON THE NE BASIN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. STRONG DEEP
LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR INHIBITS CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE...A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
TRADES OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FRIDAY AND ACROSS CUBA
SATURDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

FORMER CONVECTION ON PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS HAS DISSIPATED.
RAINSHOWERS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO RESUME THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BY FRIDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A
TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W WITH ITS BASE EXTENDING ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE SW N ATLC. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH...A
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE
CARIBBEAN. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IN THE SW N ATLC WHICH ALONG ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
AND TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 68W-79W. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ALSO
FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 64W-67W. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TWO
TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED IN THE WAVES SECTION...SURFACE RIDGING
AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180959
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU SEP 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR NEAR 16.7N 105.0W 988 MB AT 0900
UTC SEP 18...OR ABOUT 165 MILES...265 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO...MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. AT 18/0300 UTC. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM N AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLES...WHILE
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 150 NM NE...180 NM SE...270 NM SW AND 240 NM NW
QUADRANTS. POLO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NW TODAY AND
PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...THEN GRADUALLY
BEND MORE W-NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR HAS BEGUN TO IMPACT POLO...AND WILL LIMIT
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BEYOND THAT TIME...COOLER
WATERS AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF POLO. AS POLO PASSES BY THE MEXICAN
COASTLINE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OUTER BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE COASTAL ZONES FROM
WESTERN GUERRERO TO JALISCO...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY
AFFECTED BY NORBERT AND ODILE. SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC
AND FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N74W TO 09N88W TO 12N92W...
WHERE IT HAS FRACTURED...THEN RESUMES SW OF HURRICANE POLO NEAR
13N107W TO 11.5N122W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING
ON TO 10N127W TO 13.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH E OF 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG FROM 07.5N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 30N126W TO 23N140W. NW
SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT IS MAINTAINING SEAS TO 8-10 FT. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS W OF
120W CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS N OF
THE ITCZ. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH ABUTS IT THEN DISSIPATED...WITH A NEW
HIGH AND RIDGE BUILDING MODESTLY INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI
THROUGH SAT.

LONG PERIOD SW SOUTHERN HEMI SWELL AFFECTING THE WATERS E OF
110W THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SUBSIDED AND WILL SLOWLY FADE THROUGH
FRI...WITH A NEW AND SMALLER PULSE OF SW SWELL ACROSS THE
EQUATOR OVER THE WEEKEND.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180959
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU SEP 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR NEAR 16.7N 105.0W 988 MB AT 0900
UTC SEP 18...OR ABOUT 165 MILES...265 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO...MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. AT 18/0300 UTC. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM N AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLES...WHILE
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 150 NM NE...180 NM SE...270 NM SW AND 240 NM NW
QUADRANTS. POLO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NW TODAY AND
PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...THEN GRADUALLY
BEND MORE W-NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR HAS BEGUN TO IMPACT POLO...AND WILL LIMIT
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BEYOND THAT TIME...COOLER
WATERS AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF POLO. AS POLO PASSES BY THE MEXICAN
COASTLINE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OUTER BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE COASTAL ZONES FROM
WESTERN GUERRERO TO JALISCO...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY
AFFECTED BY NORBERT AND ODILE. SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC
AND FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N74W TO 09N88W TO 12N92W...
WHERE IT HAS FRACTURED...THEN RESUMES SW OF HURRICANE POLO NEAR
13N107W TO 11.5N122W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING
ON TO 10N127W TO 13.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH E OF 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG FROM 07.5N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 30N126W TO 23N140W. NW
SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT IS MAINTAINING SEAS TO 8-10 FT. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS W OF
120W CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS N OF
THE ITCZ. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH ABUTS IT THEN DISSIPATED...WITH A NEW
HIGH AND RIDGE BUILDING MODESTLY INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI
THROUGH SAT.

LONG PERIOD SW SOUTHERN HEMI SWELL AFFECTING THE WATERS E OF
110W THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SUBSIDED AND WILL SLOWLY FADE THROUGH
FRI...WITH A NEW AND SMALLER PULSE OF SW SWELL ACROSS THE
EQUATOR OVER THE WEEKEND.

$$
STRIPLING



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 180849
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

...POLO CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 105.0W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.0 WEST. POLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL MOVE
PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.  HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO
THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  AFTER
THAT...POLO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 15 INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF
GUERRERO...MICHOACAN...COLIMA AND JALISCO STATES IN MEXICO.  THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 180849
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

...POLO CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 105.0W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.0 WEST. POLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL MOVE
PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.  HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO
THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  AFTER
THAT...POLO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 15 INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF
GUERRERO...MICHOACAN...COLIMA AND JALISCO STATES IN MEXICO.  THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
WTPZ22 KNHC 180849
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0900 UTC THU SEP 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 105.0W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 105.0W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.7W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.4N 105.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.2N 106.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.9N 107.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.6N 108.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.0N 111.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 22.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 22.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 105.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
WTNT31 KNHC 180849
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014

...EDOUARD EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER COLDER WATER LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.6N 45.3W
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.3 WEST.  EDOUARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 28 MPH...44 KM/H...BUT A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.  AN EVEN SLOWER
EASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  EDOUARD IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT
AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS FROM EDOUARD ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC
CANADA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES NORTH OF FLORIDA.
THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG



000
WTPZ22 KNHC 180849
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0900 UTC THU SEP 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 105.0W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 105.0W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.7W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.4N 105.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.2N 106.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.9N 107.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.6N 108.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.0N 111.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 22.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 22.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 105.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




000
WTNT31 KNHC 180849
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014

...EDOUARD EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER COLDER WATER LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.6N 45.3W
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.3 WEST.  EDOUARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 28 MPH...44 KM/H...BUT A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.  AN EVEN SLOWER
EASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  EDOUARD IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT
AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS FROM EDOUARD ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC
CANADA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES NORTH OF FLORIDA.
THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG



000
WTNT21 KNHC 180848
TCMAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
0900 UTC THU SEP 18 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.6N  45.3W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  65 DEGREES AT  24 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  70SE  50SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 110SE 100SW  50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 200SE 180SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 330SE 350SW 400NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.6N  45.3W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.3N  46.7W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 40.1N  41.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  50SE  40SW   0NW.
50 KT... 70NE  90SE  80SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 170SE 160SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.9N  38.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  60SE  50SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE 110SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 39.7N  37.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 39.7N  35.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  50SE  40SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 38.5N  31.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 35.0N  30.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.6N  45.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG





000
WTPZ35 KWNH 180847
TCPEP5

REMNANTS OF ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD EP152014
200 AM MST THU SEP 18 2014

...REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ODILE IS MOVING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA WHILE HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 110.0W
ABOUT 25 MILES...40 KM...W OF DOUGLAS BISBEE ARIZONA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...40 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 83 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF NEW MEXICO...AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN TEXAS.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST. THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ODILE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA.  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED RAIN FALLING PRIMARILY EAST OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO...AND WESTERN TEXAS.  MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WAS REPORTED
AT TIMES.  THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
LATER THIS MORNING AS IT INTERACTS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S.  RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  HEAVY RAINS WILL REACH EASTERN NEW
MEXICO BY LATER TODAY AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH...40 KM/H...WITH GUSTS TO
10 MPH...20 KM/H..

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS
-------
RAINFALL...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO...EXTREME WESTERN TEXAS AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
THROUGH SATURDAY.  THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE ALL NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO
MITIGATE THESE POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING SITUATIONS.


RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 2 AM MST

...ARIZONA...
CLUFF RANCH                          3.15
NOGALES INTL ARPT                    2.66
FORT HUACHUCA                        2.33
DAVIDSON CANYON AT I-10              2.09
FALCON FIELD                         2.01
ITALIAN TRAP (REDINGTON PASS)        1.93
FRYE MESA RESERVOIR                  1.77
DAN SADDLE (UPPER CDO)               1.65
SAFFORD MUNI ARPT                    1.44
DOUGLAS BISBEE INTL ARPT             1.38

...NEW MEXICO...
MOGOLLON 3 WSW                       4.06
CHAPARRAL 0.4 SE                     3.50
BONITO LAKE 6 WSW                    3.10
SAN ANTONIO 25.6 SSW                 3.06
BOSQUE DEL APACHE REFUGE 19 SW       3.06
LA JOYA 2 WNW                        2.15
DEMING MUNI ARPT                     2.11
CAPITAN 2 SW                         2.00
DATIL 11 NNE                         1.56
SOCORRO 2 S                          1.43
LAS CRUCES INTL ARPT                 1.36
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES MUNI ARPT      1.09

...TEXAS...
EL PASO INTL ARPT                    2.47
LUBBOCK INTL ARPT                    1.17


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT  800 AM MST. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.

FORECASTER RYAN
$$






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