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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301546
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT APR 30 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N87W TO 09N83W TO 09N98W TO
06N110W TO 07N115W TO 07N119W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH REACHES
FROM 02N122W TO 10N122W. THE ITCZ AXIS STRETCHES FROM 05N124W TO
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N80W TO 06N89W TO10N97W TO 07N110W
TO 09N120W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES OF 1031 MB IS ANALYZED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT
42N132W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 17N113E. LATEST ASCAT
IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND LOW PRES OVER THE SW U.S. IS CAUSING FRESH TO STRONG NW
WINDS JUST W OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THESE WINDS HAVE GENERATED
10-11 FT NW SWELL WHICH CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE W COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEGUN TO RELAX. THIS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE TO 8 FT OR LESS WEST OF THE
CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA COAST BY MIDDAY ON MONDAY.

THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES BETWEEN 05N AND 25N W OF 120W HAS BEGUN
TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA WEAKENS. SW SWELL
PROPAGATING ACROSS THE REGION THAT ORIGINATED IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE CONTINUE TO DISPERSE. AS A RESULT...SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE BASIN BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
ARIZONA INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND THE LOW AND TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE S-SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH AROUND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH FILLS AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA
ON MON...THEN CONTINUE SE AND DISSIPATE BY THU. FRESH WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF NW SWELL. EXPECT
SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
.

$$
MCELROY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301546
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT APR 30 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N87W TO 09N83W TO 09N98W TO
06N110W TO 07N115W TO 07N119W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH REACHES
FROM 02N122W TO 10N122W. THE ITCZ AXIS STRETCHES FROM 05N124W TO
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N80W TO 06N89W TO10N97W TO 07N110W
TO 09N120W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES OF 1031 MB IS ANALYZED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT
42N132W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 17N113E. LATEST ASCAT
IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND LOW PRES OVER THE SW U.S. IS CAUSING FRESH TO STRONG NW
WINDS JUST W OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THESE WINDS HAVE GENERATED
10-11 FT NW SWELL WHICH CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE W COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEGUN TO RELAX. THIS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE TO 8 FT OR LESS WEST OF THE
CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA COAST BY MIDDAY ON MONDAY.

THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES BETWEEN 05N AND 25N W OF 120W HAS BEGUN
TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA WEAKENS. SW SWELL
PROPAGATING ACROSS THE REGION THAT ORIGINATED IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE CONTINUE TO DISPERSE. AS A RESULT...SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE BASIN BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
ARIZONA INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND THE LOW AND TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE S-SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH AROUND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH FILLS AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA
ON MON...THEN CONTINUE SE AND DISSIPATE BY THU. FRESH WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF NW SWELL. EXPECT
SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
.

$$
MCELROY



000
AXNT20 KNHC 301116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N16W
ALONG 6N15W TO 4N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
3N29W TO 4N40W TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 NM N OF
ITCZ BETWEEN 33W-53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
DOT THE AREA FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 3W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH A
NARROWER UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR NEW ORLEANS TO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING
UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INLAND OVER THE CONUS AND
IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND ALONG THE NW GULF COAST OVER MISSISSIPPI TO
TEXAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF WITHIN 120 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO REPORT PATCHES OF FOG OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF
90W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH THE W ATLC ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER THE FAR E GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NW GULF THROUGH THIS MORNING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE W AND NW GULF
THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING MODESTLY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO NW GULF MON NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH ZONAL W FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE W ATLC IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 64W-70W. CARIBBEAN RADARS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N-18N
BETWEEN 70W-79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF
15N E OF 68W TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO STRONG THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN NIGHT OVER THE
WATERS N OF NW VENEZUELA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED N OF HONDURAS TO 18N THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK
INCREASING TO STRONG EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE W ATLC IS GENERATING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N TO
OVER THE THE E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC E OF 70W. LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY N OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N71W TO 29N77W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THIS UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N70W 27N72W
22N71W TO OVER HAITI NEAR 19N72W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-
23N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN
59W-70W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS N OF THE SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH THROUGH 32N63W TO A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 28N74W THEN
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO. A THIRD
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N58W TO 28N59W TO 25N62W. A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IS S OF 30N ALONG 52W BUT IS STILL
PROVIDING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 56W-60W. A DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH IN THE E ATLC IS SUPPORTING A WEAKENING 1011 MB
LOW NEAR 28N35W WITH A DISSIPATING OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING
ALONG 29N31W TO 27N27W WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUING
ALONG 19N32W TO 15N48W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 26W-32W. A
SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW ALONG
25N35W TO 20N39W. THE W ATLC PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD N OF 29N TO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH LATE TODAY
WITH THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DIP S INTO THE W
ATLC EARLY SUN MORNING AND DISSIPATE THERE BY LATE SUN. A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REBUILD BEHIND THE TROUGH AND FRONT OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300942
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT APR 30 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N92W TO 10N100W TO 07N110W TO
08N119W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AT 06N122W AND CONTINUES ALONG
05N130W TO BEYOND 04N140W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS FROM 11N119W TO 06N121W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 94W AND
100W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF TROUGH 111W AND
114W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 06N TO
10N BETWEEN 120W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES OF 1032 MB IS ANALYZED NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT
37N137W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. THE HIGH PRES COVERS MAINLY THE WATERS N OF 15N W OF
110W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER
THE SW U.S. IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS
JUST W OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS HAVE GENERATED 10-11 FT NW
SWELL THAT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE W COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
PENINSULA. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS JUST W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF
25N. SEAS IN THAT AREA WILL SLIGHTLY SUBSIDE TODAY...THEN
FURTHER SUBSIDE TO 8 FT OR LESS N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 131W
BY SUN NIGHT.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS RESULTING IN MAINLY FRESH NE-E TRADES
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST REGION FROM 09N-22N W
OF 125W WITH SEAS 8-9 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THIS AREA OF FRESH
TRADES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH SUN AS THE HIGH PRES
LOCATED N OF AREA WEAKENS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS
THE WATERS W OF 110W OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BY SUN NIGHT...THE
8-9 FT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO 6-7 FT ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE THAT AREA.

DEEPENING LOW PRES FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS
WESTERN ARIZONA TODAY WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WITH THE LOW
AND FRONT IS EXPECTED TO USHER S-SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE LOW AND FRONT MOVES ESE FARTHER AWAY
FROM NW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA
ON MON FOLLOWED BY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND ANOTHER SET OF NW
SWELL. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 8-9 FT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300942
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT APR 30 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N92W TO 10N100W TO 07N110W TO
08N119W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AT 06N122W AND CONTINUES ALONG
05N130W TO BEYOND 04N140W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS FROM 11N119W TO 06N121W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 94W AND
100W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF TROUGH 111W AND
114W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 06N TO
10N BETWEEN 120W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES OF 1032 MB IS ANALYZED NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT
37N137W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. THE HIGH PRES COVERS MAINLY THE WATERS N OF 15N W OF
110W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER
THE SW U.S. IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS
JUST W OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS HAVE GENERATED 10-11 FT NW
SWELL THAT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE W COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
PENINSULA. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS JUST W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF
25N. SEAS IN THAT AREA WILL SLIGHTLY SUBSIDE TODAY...THEN
FURTHER SUBSIDE TO 8 FT OR LESS N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 131W
BY SUN NIGHT.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS RESULTING IN MAINLY FRESH NE-E TRADES
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST REGION FROM 09N-22N W
OF 125W WITH SEAS 8-9 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THIS AREA OF FRESH
TRADES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH SUN AS THE HIGH PRES
LOCATED N OF AREA WEAKENS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS
THE WATERS W OF 110W OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BY SUN NIGHT...THE
8-9 FT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO 6-7 FT ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE THAT AREA.

DEEPENING LOW PRES FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS
WESTERN ARIZONA TODAY WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WITH THE LOW
AND FRONT IS EXPECTED TO USHER S-SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE LOW AND FRONT MOVES ESE FARTHER AWAY
FROM NW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA
ON MON FOLLOWED BY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND ANOTHER SET OF NW
SWELL. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 8-9 FT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

$$
GR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 300548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W
ALONG 3N19W TO 3N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
4N37W TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 36W-
53W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 14W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF GIVING THE
AREA NEAR NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING UPPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF. HOWEVER RADAR INDICATES NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS PRESENT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING
FOG OVER THE NW GULF N OF 15N W OF 90W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INLAND OVER THE
CONUS AND IS GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND ALONG THE NW GULF COAST OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS AND
COULD SPILL OVER INTO THE NW GULF. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
THROUGH THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER THE FAR E
GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO EARLY
SAT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE W GULF THROUGH SAT MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO NW GULF MON NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH ZONAL W FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-16N. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO
OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO
HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 63W-72W. CARIBBEAN RADARS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 75W-
81W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO STRONG ON SUN AND SUN NIGHT OVER THE
WATERS N OF NW VENEZUELA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED N OF HONDURAS TO 18N THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK
EXCEPT INCREASING TO STRONG EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 22N70W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR
19N71W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N TO OVER THE ISLAND E OF 72W. THIS SURFACE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SAT. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY N OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N77W TO JUST OFFSHORE NEAR DAYTONA BEACH
FLORIDA. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTED BY THIS UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N70W 16N71W 22N70W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR
19N71W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 15N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO
HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 62W-73W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS N OF THE
SECOND SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS BERMUDA THROUGH A WEAK 1016 MB
HIGH NEAR 28N77W THEN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE E GULF OF
MEXICO. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N59W TO 28N60W TO
24N63W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG 52W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-
28N BETWEEN 52W-61W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE E ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A WEAKENING 1010 MB LOW NEAR 29N34W WITH A
DISSIPATING OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 30N31W TO 27N28W WITH
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUING ALONG 20N32W TO 15N47W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN
25W-36W. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 27N34W
ALONG 22N39W TO 23N44W. THE W ATLC PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD N OF 29N TO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH LATE SAT
WITH THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DIP S INTO THE W
ATLC EARLY SUN MORNING AND DISSIPATE THERE BY LATE SUN. A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REBUILD BEHIND THE TROUGH AND FRONT OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300243
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT APR 30 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 08N94W TO 09N100W TO
06N107W TO 07N114W TO LOW PRES AT 08N120W 1009 MB. ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRES TO 05N126W TO 06N134W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 05N-08N
BETWEEN 94W-98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 115W-120W...AND ALSO WITHIN 90 NM N OF
THE AXIS W OF 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER
THE E EASTERN PART OF THE AREA NEAR 12N94W WITH ITS BROAD
ANTICYCLONE FLOW PATTERN COVERS THE AREA FROM 04N TO 25N E OF
122W. A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH IS NOTED RIDING ALONG THE
CREST OF THE RIDGE. THE JET POSITION IS ALONG THE POINTS 09N140W
TO 16N125W AND CONTINUES NE TO 22N117W AND NE TO ACROSS CENTRAL
MEXICO. THIS JET STREAM BRANCH SEPARATES THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
FROM BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PRESENT ELSEWHERE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE SW U.S. CONUS TO 24N132W AND SSW TO
09N140W. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW NEAR THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE TRADE WIND FLOW THERE IS KEEPING SHOWER
AND TSTM ACTIVITY RATHER ACTIVE ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ AXIS W
OF 136W. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH SAT
EVENING BEFORE THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WEAKENS.

MODERATE TO STRONG SW TO W FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAM BRANCH CONTINUES TO ADVECT BROKEN MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE DEEP TROPICS OF THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE AREA NE TOWARDS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
EASTWARD TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO JUST N OF
CABO CORRIENTES. AS IMPULSES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY RIDGE
NE ALONG THE JET EXPECT AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS TO EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 350 NM SE OF THE JET BETWEEN 118W-
126W OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AND STRONG 1030 MB HIGH CENTER IS
ANALYZED N OF THE AREA AT 35N138W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD TO
32N133W TO 25N123W TO 20N115W AND WEAKENS TO NEAR 15N108W. HIGH
PRES COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY TO THE N OF 15N W OF 113W. A
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER
THE SW U.S. IS RESULTING IN NEAR GALE FORCE NW-N WINDS JUST N OF
THE NE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF CALIFORNIA. GIVEN THE
ALREADY LONG DURATION OF THESE WINDS...THIS HAS RESULTED IN NW
SWELL PRODUCING SEAS OF 9-10 FT TO HAVE SEEPED THROUGH WATERS W
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 129W. THE NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH GALE FORCE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT ALLOWING FOR
MORE NW SWELL TO PROPAGATE INTO THE NE PORTION THROUGH EARLY SUN
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY MAXING OUT TO AROUND 11 FT BEFORE SUBSIDING
SLIGHTLY.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS RESULTING IN FRESH NE-E TRADES OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 07N-25N W OF 125W WITH SEAS 8-9
FT MAINLY DUE TO A NW SWELL. THIS AREA OF FRESH TRADES WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH SUN AS THE 1030 MB HIGH WEAKENS
...HOWEVER THE SEAS WILL THERE WILL BE SLOW IN SUBSIDING THROUGH
SAT NIGHT. BY SUN...THE 8-9 FT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO 7-8
FT...AND TO 6-7 FT BY SUN AFTERNOON. A LARGE NW SWELL TRAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SEAS OF 8-10 FT OUTSIDE THE HIGHER SEAS OF 10-
11 FT EXPECTED IN THE NE PORTION AS MENTIONED ABOVE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA N OF 10N THROUGH EARLY SAT. THESE SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 8-9 FT BY LATE SAT...AND TO LESS
THAN 8 FT BY SUN AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE
PORTION W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. CROSS-EQUATORIAL S-SW SWELL
IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING SEAS OF 8-10 FT S OF A LINE FROM 15N108W
TO 03.4S84W. THESE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 8 FT S OF 13N
BETWEEN A LINE FROM 13N102W TO 03.4S84W AND 115W...AND ALSO FROM
07N-10N W OF 115W BY EARLY SAT EVENING...AND TO S OF 14N E OF
121W TO A LINE FROM 14N100W OT 03.4S91W BY SUN EVENING.

DEEPENING LOW PRES FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS
WESTERN ARIZONA ON SAT WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WITH THE
LOW AND FRONT IS EXPECTED TO USHER S-SW WINDS OF 20-30 KT ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SAT NIGHT EVENING. THESE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH EARLY ON SUN AS THE LOW AND FRONT
MOVES ESE FARTHER AWAY FROM NW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300243
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT APR 30 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 08N94W TO 09N100W TO
06N107W TO 07N114W TO LOW PRES AT 08N120W 1009 MB. ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRES TO 05N126W TO 06N134W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 05N-08N
BETWEEN 94W-98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 115W-120W...AND ALSO WITHIN 90 NM N OF
THE AXIS W OF 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER
THE E EASTERN PART OF THE AREA NEAR 12N94W WITH ITS BROAD
ANTICYCLONE FLOW PATTERN COVERS THE AREA FROM 04N TO 25N E OF
122W. A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH IS NOTED RIDING ALONG THE
CREST OF THE RIDGE. THE JET POSITION IS ALONG THE POINTS 09N140W
TO 16N125W AND CONTINUES NE TO 22N117W AND NE TO ACROSS CENTRAL
MEXICO. THIS JET STREAM BRANCH SEPARATES THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
FROM BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PRESENT ELSEWHERE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE SW U.S. CONUS TO 24N132W AND SSW TO
09N140W. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW NEAR THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE TRADE WIND FLOW THERE IS KEEPING SHOWER
AND TSTM ACTIVITY RATHER ACTIVE ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ AXIS W
OF 136W. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH SAT
EVENING BEFORE THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WEAKENS.

MODERATE TO STRONG SW TO W FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAM BRANCH CONTINUES TO ADVECT BROKEN MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE DEEP TROPICS OF THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE AREA NE TOWARDS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
EASTWARD TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO JUST N OF
CABO CORRIENTES. AS IMPULSES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY RIDGE
NE ALONG THE JET EXPECT AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS TO EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 350 NM SE OF THE JET BETWEEN 118W-
126W OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AND STRONG 1030 MB HIGH CENTER IS
ANALYZED N OF THE AREA AT 35N138W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD TO
32N133W TO 25N123W TO 20N115W AND WEAKENS TO NEAR 15N108W. HIGH
PRES COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY TO THE N OF 15N W OF 113W. A
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER
THE SW U.S. IS RESULTING IN NEAR GALE FORCE NW-N WINDS JUST N OF
THE NE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF CALIFORNIA. GIVEN THE
ALREADY LONG DURATION OF THESE WINDS...THIS HAS RESULTED IN NW
SWELL PRODUCING SEAS OF 9-10 FT TO HAVE SEEPED THROUGH WATERS W
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 129W. THE NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH GALE FORCE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT ALLOWING FOR
MORE NW SWELL TO PROPAGATE INTO THE NE PORTION THROUGH EARLY SUN
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY MAXING OUT TO AROUND 11 FT BEFORE SUBSIDING
SLIGHTLY.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS RESULTING IN FRESH NE-E TRADES OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 07N-25N W OF 125W WITH SEAS 8-9
FT MAINLY DUE TO A NW SWELL. THIS AREA OF FRESH TRADES WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH SUN AS THE 1030 MB HIGH WEAKENS
...HOWEVER THE SEAS WILL THERE WILL BE SLOW IN SUBSIDING THROUGH
SAT NIGHT. BY SUN...THE 8-9 FT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO 7-8
FT...AND TO 6-7 FT BY SUN AFTERNOON. A LARGE NW SWELL TRAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SEAS OF 8-10 FT OUTSIDE THE HIGHER SEAS OF 10-
11 FT EXPECTED IN THE NE PORTION AS MENTIONED ABOVE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA N OF 10N THROUGH EARLY SAT. THESE SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 8-9 FT BY LATE SAT...AND TO LESS
THAN 8 FT BY SUN AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE
PORTION W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. CROSS-EQUATORIAL S-SW SWELL
IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING SEAS OF 8-10 FT S OF A LINE FROM 15N108W
TO 03.4S84W. THESE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 8 FT S OF 13N
BETWEEN A LINE FROM 13N102W TO 03.4S84W AND 115W...AND ALSO FROM
07N-10N W OF 115W BY EARLY SAT EVENING...AND TO S OF 14N E OF
121W TO A LINE FROM 14N100W OT 03.4S91W BY SUN EVENING.

DEEPENING LOW PRES FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS
WESTERN ARIZONA ON SAT WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WITH THE
LOW AND FRONT IS EXPECTED TO USHER S-SW WINDS OF 20-30 KT ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SAT NIGHT EVENING. THESE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH EARLY ON SUN AS THE LOW AND FRONT
MOVES ESE FARTHER AWAY FROM NW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXNT20 KNHC 292342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
05N15W TO 04N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 04N26W TO 03N40W TO 01N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 06N BETWEEN 12W AND 20W...AND FROM 03N
TO 07N BETWEEN 43W AND 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE GULF
BASIN THIS EVENING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA GENERATING A STRENGTHENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF WATERS W OF 90W. EAST OF 90W...WINDS REMAIN E-SE AT
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE LEVELS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR SKIES. AS THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA TRACKS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SAT...SE
WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WILL PERSIST AT STRONG LEVELS THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE BY SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. SURFACE RIDGING
ANCHORED TO THE EAST ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MON NIGHT...WHEN A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
AND MOVE EASTWARD EARLY TUE THROUGH WED AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN
ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS WED NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN THIS EVENING THAT IS PROVIDING FOR RATHER
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. TRADE WINDS REMAIN IN A
RANGE OF GENTLE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH LEVELS AS WEAK RIDGING
CONTINUES TO PROMOTE A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN.
WHILE SKIES THIS EVENING ARE MOSTLY CLEAR...MUCH OF THE ACTIVE
WEATHER IS NOTED ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO AS PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS GENERALLY N OF 16N BETWEEN 62W AND 72W. THIS
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING N OF
20N BETWEEN 55W AND 75W ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC
REGION. THE BROAD TROUGHING IS EXPECTED BECOME DIFFUSE BY SUN
NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER TRADE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO A LOCALLY STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

HISPANIOLA...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER HISPANIOLA...HOWEVER A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO
THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. GIVEN LOWER LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 70W/71W TO THE NORTH IS ALSO
PROVIDING LOW-LEVEL ENHANCEMENT TO THE ONGOING ACTIVITY.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER RE-DEVELOP SAT AND SUN
AFTERNOONS UNTIL THE BROAD TROUGHING TO THE NORTH BECOMES
DIFFUSE AND DISSIPATES ON SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIRLY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS EVENING. A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N67W SW TO A BROAD BASE NEAR
22N76W THAT IS SUPPORTING A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE
ANALYZED FROM 20N71W TO 29N71W AND THE OTHER FROM 24N63W TO
31N59W. MOST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE BOUNDARIES REMAINS
TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG 71W AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS ARE MORE FAVORABLE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS STRETCHING FROM ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO
NE TO NEAR 30N50W. THE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY SUN
EVENING WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE NORTH
OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. FARTHER
EAST...A CUT-OFF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
28N33W THAT SUPPORTS A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N33W
AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO
28N27W TO 22N28W TO 17N40W THEN DISSIPATING WEST TO 17N50W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE CONFINED TO WITHIN 90
NM OF THE LOW CENTER...AND WITHIN 90 NM E-NE OF THE FRONT N OF
27N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292204
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI APR 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N88W TO 08N94W TO 08N101W
TO06N107W TO 08N118W TO 06N124W WHERE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA
INDICATES IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AXIS TO 06N132W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 97W-104W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ
AXIS BETWEEN 136W-139W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
150 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 90W-94W...AND ALSO S OF THE
TROUGH WITHIN 30 NM OF 06N86W.

...DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED IN
THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA W OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF COSTA
RICA AT 11N88.5W. ITS ASSOCIATED BROAD ANTICYCLONE FLOW PATTERN
COVERS THE AREA FROM 04N TO 26N E OF 120W. A SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM BRANCH IS NOTED RIDING ALONG THE CREST OF THE RIDGE. THE
JET POSITION IS ALONG THE POINTS 09N140W TO 16N125W AND
CONTINUES NE TO 22N117W AND NE TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS
JET STREAM BRANCH SEPARATES THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW PRESENT ELSEWHERE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM THE SW U.S. CONUS TO 24N132W AND SSW TO 09N140W.
MODERATE TO STRONG SW TO W FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAM BRANCH CONTINUES TO ADVECT BROKEN MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE DEEP TROPICS OF THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE AREA NE TOWARDS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
EASTWARD TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO JUST N OF
CABO CORRIENTES. AS IMPULSES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY
RIDGE NE ALONG THE JET EXPECT AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 350 NM SE OF
THE JET BETWEEN 118W-126W OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AND STRONG 1034 MB HIGH CENTER IS
N OF THE AREA AT 35N139W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD TO
32N132W TO 26N124W TO 20N117W AND WEAKENS TO NEAR 15N108W.
HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY TO THE N OF 15N W OF
113W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG RIDGE AND LOW
PRES OVER THE SW U.S. IS RESULTING IN NEAR GALE FORCE NW-N WINDS
JUST N OF THE NE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF CALIFORNIA.
GIVEN THE ALREADY LONG DURATION OF THESE WINDS...THIS HAS LEAD
TO NW SWELL PRODUCING SEAS OF 9-10 FT TO HAVE SEEPED THROUGH
WATERS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 129W. THE NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO REACH GALE FORCE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT ALLOWING
FOR MORE NW SWELL TO PROPAGATE INTO THE NE PORTION THROUGH EARLY
SUN WITH SEAS POSSIBLY MAXING OUT TO AROUND 11 FT BEFORE
SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS RESULTING IN FRESH NE-E TRADES OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 07N-25N W OF 125W WITH SEAS 8-9
FT MAINLY DUE TO A NW SWELL. THIS AREA OF FRESH TRADES WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH SUN AS THE 1034 MB HIGH
WEAKENS...HOWEVER THE SEAS WILL THERE WILL BE SLOW IN SUBSIDING
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. BY SUN...THE 8-9 FT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
LOWER TO 7-8 FT...AND TO 6-7 FT BY SUN AFTERNOON. A LARGE NW
SWELL TRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SEAS OF 8-10 FT OUTSIDE THE
HIGHER SEAS OF 10-11 FT EXPECTED IN THE NE PORTION AS MENTIONED
ABOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA N OF 10N THROUGH EARLY
SAT. THESE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 8-9 FT BY LATE
SAT...AND TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY SUN AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE FAR NE PORTION W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. CROSS-
EQUATORIAL S-SW SWELL IS BRINGING SEAS OF 8-9 FT S OF 10N AND E
OF 120W. THESE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 8 FT FROM 04N-10N
BETWEEN 90W-108W BY SUN AFTERNOON.

DEEPENING LOW PRES FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS
WESTERN ARIZONA ON SAT WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WITH THE
LOW AND FRONT IS EXPECTED TO USHER S-SW WINDS OF 20-30 KT ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY SAT EVENING...WITH BRIEF
GUSTS POSSIBLE TO GALE FORCE. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH EARLY ON SUN AS THE LOW AND FRONT MOVES ESE AND WEAKENS.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292203
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI APR 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N88W TO 08N94W TO 08N101W
TO06N107W TO 08N118W TO 06N124W WHERE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA
INDICATES IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AXIS TO 06N132W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 97W-104W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ
AXIS BETWEEN 136W-139W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
150 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 90W-94W...AND ALSO S OF THE
TROUGH WITHIN 30 NM OF 06N86W.

...DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED IN
THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA W OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF COSTA
RICA AT 11N88.5W. ITS ASSOCIATED BROAD ANTICYCLONE FLOW PATTERN
COVERS THE AREA FROM 04N TO 26N E OF 120W. A SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM BRANCH IS NOTED RIDING ALONG THE CREST OF THE RIDGE. THE
JET POSITION IS ALONG THE POINTS 09N140W TO 16N125W AND
CONTINUES NE TO 22N117W AND NE TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS
JET STREAM BRANCH SEPARATES THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW PRESENT ELSEWHERE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM THE SW U.S. CONUS TO 24N132W AND SSW TO 09N140W.
MODERATE TO STRONG SW TO W FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAM BRANCH CONTINUES TO ADVECT BROKEN MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE DEEP TROPICS OF THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE AREA NE TOWARDS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
EASTWARD TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO JUST N OF
CABO CORRIENTES. AS IMPULSES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY
RIDGE NE ALONG THE JET EXPECT AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 350 NM SE OF
THE JET BETWEEN 118W-126W OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AND STRONG 1034 MB HIGH CENTER IS
N OF THE AREA AT 35N139W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD TO
32N132W TO 26N124W TO 20N117W AND WEAKENS TO NEAR 15N108W.
HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY TO THE N OF 15N W OF
113W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG RIDGE AND LOW
PRES OVER THE SW U.S. IS RESULTING IN NEAR GALE FORCE NW-N WINDS
JUST N OF THE NE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF CALIFORNIA.
GIVEN THE ALREADY LONG DURATION OF THESE WINDS
...THIS HAS LEAD TO NW SWELL PRODUCING SEAS OF 9-10 FT TO HAVE
SEEPED THROUGH WATERS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 129W. THE NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH GALE FORCE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SAT ALLOWING FOR MORE NW SWELL TO PROPAGATE INTO THE NE
PORTION THROUGH EARLY SUN WITH SEAS POSSIBLY MAXING OUT TO
AROUND 11 FT BEFORE SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS RESULTING IN FRESH NE-E TRADES OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 07N-25N W OF 125W WITH SEAS 8-9
FT MAINLY DUE TO A NW SWELL. THIS AREA OF FRESH TRADES WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH SUN AS THE 1034 MB HIGH
WEAKENS...HOWEVER THE SEAS WILL THERE WILL BE SLOW IN SUBSIDING
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. BY SUN...THE 8-9 FT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
LOWER TO 7-8 FT...AND TO 6-7 FT BY SUN AFTERNOON. A LARGE NW
SWELL TRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SEAS OF 8-10 FT OUTSIDE THE
HIGHER SEAS OF 10-11 FT EXPECTED IN THE NE PORTION AS MENTIONED
ABOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA N OF 10N THROUGH EARLY
SAT. THESE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 8-9 FT BY LATE
SAT...AND TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY SUN AFTERNOON WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE PORTION W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE.
CROSS-EQUATORIAL S-SW SWELL IS BRINGING SEAS OF 8-9 FT S OF 10N
AND E OF 120W. THESE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 8 FT FROM
04N-10N BETWEEN 90W-108W BY SUN AFTERNOON.

DEEPENING LOW FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS
WESTERN ARIZONA ON SAT WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WITH THE
LOW AND FRONT IS EXPECTED TO USHER S-SW WINDS OF 20-30 KT ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY SAT EVENING...WITH BRIEF
GUSTS POSSIBLE TO GALE FORCE. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH EARLY ON SUN AS THE LOW AND FRONT MOVES ESE AND WEAKENS.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXNT20 KNHC 291720
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 4N20W TO 4N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 3N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
FROM 0N-4N BETWEEN 11W-19W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 51W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SE SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTER OVER THE WESTERN GULF THUS 15-25 KT
WINDS ARE W OF 90W. THE EASTERN GULF HAS ONLY 5-15 KT WINDS WITH
THE LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE NE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS IS OVER THE NW GULF FROM
24N-28N BETWEEN 90W-98W THAT HAS ADVECTED FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE INLAND OVER SE TEXAS
WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT FOG OVER THE NW GULF DURING THE
EARLY MORNING SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALSO OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS AND SEAS 2-5 FT. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND
W VENEZUELA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA.
ELSEWHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W
OF 75W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...INLAND OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...
AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
SURFACE TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH
CONTINUED SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA TO CONTINUE.

HISPANIOLA...

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WELL N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 29N59W
TO 24N62W IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N-27N
BETWEEN 58W-63W. ELSEWHERE A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 29N32W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N27W TO 26N26W
TO 17N40W TO 18N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR THE LOW TO MOVE SW TO 26N36W AND WEAKEN TO 1012 MB.
ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DISSIPATE WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291546
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI APR 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N88W TO 07N92W TO 08N100W TO
05N106W TO 08N119W TO 05N124W. THE ITCZ AXIS STRETCHES FROM
05N124W TO 06N130W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 106W AND 112W AND
IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 06N125W TO 04N135W TO 05N140W
TO 08N140W TO 10N134W TO 06N125W. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FOUND FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 100W AND 106W.

...DISCUSSION...

LATEST SCATTEROMETRY INDICATES STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS W
OF THE CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA COASTS HAVE DIMINISHED TO
STRONG DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS AREA HAS ALREADY GENERATED
11 FT NW SWELL THAT ARE PROPAGATING TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA
COAST. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE
BETWEEN SUNSET ON SATURDAY AND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY AS THE FRONT HEADS SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENS.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR
34N142W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE HIGH TO NEAR
15N110W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE TO
THE S ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ HAS LESSENED AS THE EASTERN FLANK
OF THE HIGH WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS HAS ALLOWED TRADES FROM 05N TO 15N W OF
130W TO DECREASE FROM STRONG TO FRESH.

OTHERWISE...FETCH GENERATION REGIONS FOR NW AND NE SWELLS NORTH
OF THE EQUATOR HAVE BEGUN TO SHRINK AS THE LEADING EDGE OF SW
SWELL ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE NEARS THE COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO. ALL OF THESE SWELL GROUPS WILL MERGE
AND DECAY OVER THE FORECAST WATERS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ALLOWING COMBINED SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN TO DECREASE TO
LESS THAN 8 FT ON MON.
$$
MCELROY



000
AXNT20 KNHC 291056
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE 24 HOURS THAT FOLLOW
THE FORECAST THAT IS VALID UNTIL 30/1200 UTC CONSISTS OF...
NORTHEASTERLY NEAR GALE LOCALLY GALE IN AGADIR AND CANARIAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 07N12W TO 05N16W AND 04N26W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 04N26W
04N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 05W AND 12W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO
01N BETWEEN 10W AND 11W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE AREA BOUNDED BY THE POINTS FROM 03N46W TO 03N52W
TO 08N60W TO 03N46W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS FROM 28N
SOUTHWARD FROM 87W WESTWARD.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS
FROM 90W EASTWARD. A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR CONDITIONS...KDLP....KMIS...AND KMDJ.

IFR CONDITIONS...KVBS...KVQT...KEIR...AND KSPR.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG....KBBF...KBQX...KXIH...KGLS...KHHV...
KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...KGHB...AND KGRY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR AND SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
TEXAS. LOUISIANA...LIFR IN BOOTHVILLE. MVFR IS MIXED WITH IFR
ELSEWHERE. MISSISSIPPI...VFR/NO CEILINGS. ALABAMA...IFR IN GULF
SHORES. MVFR IN EVERGREEN. FLORIDA...MVFR IN DESTIN. LIFR IN THE
PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN AREA...IN MARIANNA...AND IN
APALACHICOLA. IFR IN PERRY. LIFR IN BROOKSVILLE. MVFR AT THE
TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT.

...FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 64W...FROM THE ISLANDS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 17N TO
21N BETWEEN 62W AND 73W... INCLUDING ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 72W/73W FROM 20N IN HAITI TO 24N IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 69W AND 71W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO COSTA
RICA AND NICARAGUA...CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...NO NEW OBSERVATIONS ARE AVAILABLE SINCE
THE LAST TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 30 TO 36 HOURS OR SO. A
TROUGH WILL BE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME
AFTER THAT. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL
START WITH A TROUGH FROM CUBA TO JAMAICA...AND SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS
MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING DAY ONE. MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF DAY TWO.
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N31W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 20W AND 45W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N31W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT CURVES FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO 33N29W AND 30N26W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM
30N26W TO 22N30W 18N40W 18N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 28N TO 32N
BETWEEN 27W AND 341W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE REST OF THE COLD FRONT.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG 64W FROM 20N BEYOND 32N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN
62W AND 65W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N54W 29N55W 25N54W
22N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 23N TO
29N BETWEEN 52W AND 55W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N61W
26N62W 24N63W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W.
A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N71W 24N75W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N69W 29N72W 26N73W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 29/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.04 IN
BERMUDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO THE
CANARY ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... TO 13N34W AND
13N48W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290923
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI APR 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N95W TO 06N105W TO 07N113W TO
05N119W WHERE IT THEN TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AXIS FROM THERE TO
05N130W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
05N TO 08N BETWEEN 91W AND 95W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 07N
TO 10N BETWEEN 121W AND 123W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 103W
AND 108W.

...DISCUSSION...

A VERY WELL PRONOUNCED SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH IS LOCATED
BETWEEN A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED S OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 13N95W AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER
THE N WATERS. STRONG SW WINDS WITH THE JET ARE TRANSPORTING
ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EASTWARD TOWARDS BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR AND NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN
ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE
ITCZ MAINLY BETWEEN 100W AND 110W AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.

A SURGE OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW WINDS IS NOTED PER
SCATTEROMETER DATA JUST N OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 117W-123W
WHILE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE BLOWING OVER THE NE WATERS N OF
27N E OF 117W. SEAS GENERATED BY THESE WINDS ARE PROPAGATING
ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION...PARTICULARLY N OF 22N E OF 120W TO
THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND
11 FT.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 34N144W
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
NE TO E TRADES TO EXIST FROM 08N TO 22N W OF 130W. THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN TONIGHT INTO SAT ALLOWING FOR THE TRADES TO
DIMINISH TO MOSTLY MODERATE INTENSITY.

A LOW PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA
LATE SAT NIGHT WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA SAT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT S OF THE LOW AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE GFS MODEL TO BRING NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA DURING THAT TIME FRAME. CURRENTLY...THE FORECAST
CALLS FOR SW TO W WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE AND SEAS
BUILDING TO AROUND 8 FT S OF THE FRONT TO 29.5N. MAINLY FRESH NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

OTHERWISE...NW SWELL WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT...MERGING WITH
CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W
TODAY. THIS SWELL EVENT IS FORECAST TO SUBSIDE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. LARGE SW SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST WATERS E OF 110W. THE SWELL TRAIN WITH
A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 18-19 SECONDS IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
COASTS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA LATE TODAY.

$$
GR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 290605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 04N18W AND 04N26W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 08N13W
03N42W...TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01N50W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 04W AND
07W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 05N23W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N
BETWEEN 07W AND 14W...AND FROM 05N TO 06N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...THAT WAS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 89W...HAS WEAKENED
AND DISSIPATED.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR CONDITIONS...KGRY...KGRY...KEIR...KSPR...KMDJ...

IFR CONDITIONS...KVQT

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG....KXIH...KGLS...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...
KGUL...KVBS...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
TEXAS. LIGHT RAIN IS FROM SUGAR LAND TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN
AREA. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE WESTERN HALF...VFR/NO CEILINGS IN
THE EASTERN HALF. MVFR IN GULF SHORES AND EVERGREEN. FLORIDA...
LIFR IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN
AREA AND IN MARIANNA. IFR IN APALACHICOLA AND TALLAHASSEE. LIFR
IN PERRY.

...FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 65W...FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES
NORTHWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N69W TO 19N70W AT THE
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N
TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 17N TO 20N
BETWEEN 65W AND 70W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO COSTA
RICA AND NICARAGUA...CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...LIGHT RAIN
AT 29/0000 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS. SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8000 FEET. A CLOUD
CEILING AT 30000 FEET...VFR. SANTO DOMINGO...RAIN AND THUNDER.
LA ROMANA...SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR...AT 29/0000 UTC. PUNTA CANA...THUNDER...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1800
FEET...MVFR. SANTIAGO...THUNDER AND LIGHT RAIN. PUERTO PLATA...
A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1800 FEET...MVFR.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 30 TO 36 HOURS OR SO. A
TROUGH WILL BE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME
AFTER THAT. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL
START WITH A TROUGH FROM CUBA TO JAMAICA...AND SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS
MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING DAY ONE. MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF DAY TWO.
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 30N31W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 20W AND 45W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N31W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO 33N30W AND 31N26W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM
31N26W TO 26N27W 20N35W 19N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN
28W AND 31W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG 65W FROM 20N BEYOND 32N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN
62W AND 65W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N58W 24N62W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 53W AND 56W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS
FROM 24N69W TO 19N70W AT THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. A THIRD SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 30N70W 28N71W 26N72W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS FROM 26N
TO 31N BETWEEN 69W AND 73W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 29/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.04 IN BERMUDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 30N19W...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...
TO 12N37W AND 12N49W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 290605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 04N18W AND 04N26W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 08N13W
03N42W...TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01N50W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 04W AND
07W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 05N23W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N
BETWEEN 07W AND 14W...AND FROM 05N TO 06N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...THAT WAS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 89W...HAS WEAKENED
AND DISSIPATED.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR CONDITIONS...KGRY...KGRY...KEIR...KSPR...KMDJ...

IFR CONDITIONS...KVQT

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG....KXIH...KGLS...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...
KGUL...KVBS...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
TEXAS. LIGHT RAIN IS FROM SUGAR LAND TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN
AREA. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE WESTERN HALF...VFR/NO CEILINGS IN
THE EASTERN HALF. MVFR IN GULF SHORES AND EVERGREEN. FLORIDA...
LIFR IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN
AREA AND IN MARIANNA. IFR IN APALACHICOLA AND TALLAHASSEE. LIFR
IN PERRY.

...FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 65W...FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES
NORTHWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N69W TO 19N70W AT THE
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N
TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 17N TO 20N
BETWEEN 65W AND 70W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO COSTA
RICA AND NICARAGUA...CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...LIGHT RAIN
AT 29/0000 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS. SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8000 FEET. A CLOUD
CEILING AT 30000 FEET...VFR. SANTO DOMINGO...RAIN AND THUNDER.
LA ROMANA...SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR...AT 29/0000 UTC. PUNTA CANA...THUNDER...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1800
FEET...MVFR. SANTIAGO...THUNDER AND LIGHT RAIN. PUERTO PLATA...
A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1800 FEET...MVFR.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 30 TO 36 HOURS OR SO. A
TROUGH WILL BE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME
AFTER THAT. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL
START WITH A TROUGH FROM CUBA TO JAMAICA...AND SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS
MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING DAY ONE. MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF DAY TWO.
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 30N31W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 20W AND 45W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N31W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO 33N30W AND 31N26W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM
31N26W TO 26N27W 20N35W 19N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN
28W AND 31W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG 65W FROM 20N BEYOND 32N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN
62W AND 65W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N58W 24N62W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 53W AND 56W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS
FROM 24N69W TO 19N70W AT THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. A THIRD SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 30N70W 28N71W 26N72W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS FROM 26N
TO 31N BETWEEN 69W AND 73W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 29/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.04 IN BERMUDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 30N19W...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...
TO 12N37W AND 12N49W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290244
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI APR 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N91W TO 08N102W TO 07N105W TO
09N115W WHERE EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTED IT THEN
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AXIS FROM THERE TO 09N115W TO 07N125W TO
05N134W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 91W-
97W...AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 102W-108W.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 119W-
124W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 112W-114W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF THE AREA NEAR 11N98W WITH IS BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NOTED TO
THE S OF 21N AND E OF ABOUT 128W. N OF 21N...BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING IS PRESENT E OF 128W...AND W OF 128W WITH A MEAN
TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM A NEARLY STATIONARY LARGE UPPER LOW
OVER SW UTAH SW TO 26N121W TO 20N134W TO SW OF THE AREA AT
16N140W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SE
ARIZONA TO ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...TO 28N120W AND NW
TO 29N128W. THE FRONT IS MOVING QUICKLY S AS SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A SURGE OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW WINDS WAS
CAPTURED BY AN ASCAT PASS FROM THU AFTERNOON JUST N OF 32N
BETWEEN 117W-123W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER
INLAND NORTHERN MEXICO ON FRI. A VERY WELL PRONOUNCED
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH SEPARATES THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. THE JET
STREAM BRANCH IS ALONG THE POINTS 13N132W TO 21N120W TO
22N110W...AND EASTWARD TO OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. MODERATE TO
STRONG WINDS WITH THE JET ARE TRANSPORTING OVERCAST TO BROKEN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EASTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL MEXICO FROM NEAR
MANZANILLO TO MAZATLAN. THESE CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 350 NM S OF THE
JET STREAM W OF 116W...AND WITHIN 180-240 NM S OF THE JET E OF
116W. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION IS HELPING
TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION OCCURRING THERE AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 34N144W
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA THROUGH
32N140W TO 25N130W 21N119W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS ALLOWING FOR
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADES TO EXIST FROM 09N-21N W OF 132W.
A LOW PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA
LATE SAT NIGHT WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA SAT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT S OF THE LOW AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE GFS MODEL TO BRING NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT ALLOWING FOR THE TRADES TO DIMINISH TO MOSTLY MODERATE
INTENSITY.

OTHERWISE...NW SWELL WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT...WITH THE
HIGHEST OF SEAS CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE SWELL IS FORECAST TO SUBSIDE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290244
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI APR 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N91W TO 08N102W TO 07N105W TO
09N115W WHERE EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTED IT THEN
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AXIS FROM THERE TO 09N115W TO 07N125W TO
05N134W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 91W-
97W...AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 102W-108W.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 119W-
124W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 112W-114W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF THE AREA NEAR 11N98W WITH IS BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NOTED TO
THE S OF 21N AND E OF ABOUT 128W. N OF 21N...BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING IS PRESENT E OF 128W...AND W OF 128W WITH A MEAN
TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM A NEARLY STATIONARY LARGE UPPER LOW
OVER SW UTAH SW TO 26N121W TO 20N134W TO SW OF THE AREA AT
16N140W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SE
ARIZONA TO ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...TO 28N120W AND NW
TO 29N128W. THE FRONT IS MOVING QUICKLY S AS SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A SURGE OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW WINDS WAS
CAPTURED BY AN ASCAT PASS FROM THU AFTERNOON JUST N OF 32N
BETWEEN 117W-123W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER
INLAND NORTHERN MEXICO ON FRI. A VERY WELL PRONOUNCED
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH SEPARATES THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. THE JET
STREAM BRANCH IS ALONG THE POINTS 13N132W TO 21N120W TO
22N110W...AND EASTWARD TO OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. MODERATE TO
STRONG WINDS WITH THE JET ARE TRANSPORTING OVERCAST TO BROKEN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EASTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL MEXICO FROM NEAR
MANZANILLO TO MAZATLAN. THESE CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 350 NM S OF THE
JET STREAM W OF 116W...AND WITHIN 180-240 NM S OF THE JET E OF
116W. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION IS HELPING
TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION OCCURRING THERE AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 34N144W
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA THROUGH
32N140W TO 25N130W 21N119W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS ALLOWING FOR
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADES TO EXIST FROM 09N-21N W OF 132W.
A LOW PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA
LATE SAT NIGHT WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA SAT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT S OF THE LOW AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE GFS MODEL TO BRING NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT ALLOWING FOR THE TRADES TO DIMINISH TO MOSTLY MODERATE
INTENSITY.

OTHERWISE...NW SWELL WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT...WITH THE
HIGHEST OF SEAS CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE SWELL IS FORECAST TO SUBSIDE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXNT20 KNHC 282333
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 4N20W TO 4N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 3N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
FROM 0N-4N BETWEEN 11W-19W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 51W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 30N83W TO 28N87W TO SE
LOUISIANA AT 29N90W MOVING S. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE NE GULF AND COASTAL STATES N OF 28N BETWEEN 82W-92W. 10-
20 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH THE STRONGEST
SURFACE GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 88W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE
NE GULF ENHANCING THE CONVECTION. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ELSEWHERE
OVER THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE INLAND OVER ALL OF E TEXAS DUE TO A COLD
FRONT. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
GULF W OF 95W...AND ELSEWHERE OVER FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS AND SEAS 2-5 FT. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER COLOMBIA
AND VENEZUELA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...S NICARAGUA...W HONDURAS... AND
S GUATEMALA. ELSEWHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF HISPANIOLA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER E CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND
PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...INLAND OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...AND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH N
OF HISPANIOLA TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS.
ALSO EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA TO
CONTINUE.

HISPANIOLA...

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
DUE TO THE TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 27N59W TO
23N63W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N-27N
BETWEEN 55W-67W. ELSEWHERE A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N32W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N27W TO 24N30W
TO 20N40W TO 20N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. EXPECT THE LOW TO DRIFT S OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND FOR
THE COLD FRONT TO DO LIKEWISE WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282204
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU APR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N87W TO 11N97W TO 08N103W TO
07N110W WHERE SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS IT THEN TRANSITIONS TO
THE ITCZ AXIS FROM THERE TO 09N116W TO 07N126W TO 05N132W TO
BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 98W-99W...WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W-123W...AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 112W-115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 123W-127W...AND BETWEEN 128W-130W.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS S OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM
06N89W TO 06N93W...AND N OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE
FROM 11N96W TO 13N93W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF THE AREA NEAR 12N99W WITH IS BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NOTED TO
THE S OF 21N AND E OF ABOUT 128W. N OF 21N...BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING IS PRESENT E OF 128W...AND W OF 128W WITH A MEAN
TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM A NEARLY STATIONARY LARGE UPPER LOW
OVER SW UTAH SW TO 26N121W TO 20N134W TO SW OF THE AREA AT
16N140W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SE
ARIZONA TO ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...TO 28N120W AND NW
TO 29N128W. THE FRONT IS MOVING QUICKLY S AS SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A SURGE OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW WINDS WAS
CAPTURED BY AN ASCAT PASS FROM THIS AFTERNOON JUST N OF 32N
BETWEEN 117W-123W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER
INLAND NORTHERN MEXICO ON FRI. A VERY WELL PRONOUNCED
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH SEPARATES THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. THE JET
STREAM BRANCH IS ALONG THE POINTS 13N132W TO 21N120W TO
22N110W...AND EASTWARD TO OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. MODERATE TO
STRONG WINDS WITH THE JET ARE TRANSPORTING OVERCAST TO BROKEN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EASTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL MEXICO FROM NEAR
MANZANILLO TO MAZATLAN. THESE CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 350 NM S OF THE
JET STREAM W OF 116W...AND WITHIN 180-240 NM S OF THE JET E OF
116W. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION IS HELPING
TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION OCCURRING THERE AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 33N145W
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA THROUGH
32N140W TO 25N130W 21N119W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS ALLOWING FOR
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADES TO EXIST FROM 09N-21N W OF 132W.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE FAR NE PART
AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ARE FORECAST TO BE
NEAR GALE FORCE DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ALLOWING FOR THE TRADES TO
DIMINISH TO MOSTLY MODERATE INTENSITY.

OTHERWISE...NW SWELL WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT. THE SWELL IS
FORECAST TO SUBSIDE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282202
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU APR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N87W TO 11N97W TO 08N103W TO
07N110W WHERE SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS IT THEN TRANSITIONS TO
THE ITCZ AXIS FROM THERE TO 09N116W TO 07N126W TO 05N132W TO
BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 98W-99W...WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W-123W...AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 112W-115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 123W-127W...AND BETWEEN 128W-130W.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS S OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM
06N89W TO 06N93W...AND N OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE
FROM 11N96W TO 13N93W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF THE AREA NEAR 12N99W WITH IS BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NOTED TO
THE S OF 21N AND E OF ABOUT 128W. N OF 21N...BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING IS PRESENT E OF 128W...AND W OF 128W WITH A MEAN
TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM A NEARLY STATIONARY LARGE UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SW TO 26N121W TO 20N134W TO SW OF THE AREA
AT 16N140W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
SE ARIZONA TO ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...TO 28N120W AND
NW TO 29N128W. THE FRONT IS MOVING QUICKLY S AS SEEN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURGE OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW WINDS
WAS CAPTURED BY AN ASCAT PASS FROM THIS AFTERNOON JUST N OF 32N
BETWEEN 117W-123W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER
INLAND NORTHERN MEXICO ON FRI. A VERY WELL PRONOUNCED
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH SEPARATES THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. THE JET
STREAM BRANCH IS ALONG 13N132W 21N120W 22N110W...AND E TO OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WITH THE JET ARE
TRANSPORTING OVERCAST TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EASTWARD
TOWARDS CENTRAL MEXICO FROM NEAR MANZANILLO TO MAZATLAN. THESE
CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 350 NM S OF THE JET STREAM W OF 116W...AND
WITHIN 180-240 NM S OF THE JET E OF 116W. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
OVER EASTERN PORTION IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION OCCURRING
THERE AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 33N145W
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA THROUGH
32N140W TO 25N130W 21N119W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS ALLOWING FOR
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADES TO EXIST FROM 09N-21N W OF 132W.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE FAR NE PART
AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ARE FORECAST TO BE
NEAR GALE FORCE DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ALLOWING FOR THE TRADES TO
DIMINISH TO MOSTLY MODERATE INTENSITY.

OTHERWISE...NW SWELL WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT. THE SWELL IS
FORECAST TO SUBSIDE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W ALONG 5N17W TO 4N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 3N37W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 22W AND FROM 5N-9N W OF 50W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO TEXAS AND GENERATING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
TO OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 90W. A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE GULF GIVING THE AREA NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO OVER THE FAR E GULF. THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHES OF FOG BEING REPORTED N OF 26N W
OF 89W. CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE FRONT OVER TEXAS WILL ENTER THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE TROUGHS THAT EFFECTED THE CARIBBEAN
YESTERDAY ARE NO LONGER IN THE AREA BUT LINGERING MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 16N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BETWEEN
63W-66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 16N TO OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 66W-74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER
PANAMA AND E OF 79W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON. E-SE WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH ACROSS THE GULF OF
HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PEAKING WITH FRESH TO STRONG E
WINDS SAT NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

LINGERING MOISTURE IS GIVING THE ISLAND POSSIBLE SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEKEND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG A LINE FROM 32N79W TO
DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. THIS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
ARE MOVING EASTWARD NEAR 25 KT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
W AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 33N51W
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS BERMUDA THEN SE ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA INTO THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 71W FROM 25N-28N. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH IS N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 25N58W ALONG
25N63W TO 24N68W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 55W-69W. A
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE E ATLC IS SUPPORTING A 1008 MB LOW
NEAR 30N33W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT N OF THE REGION AND A COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N29W ALONG 25N31W TO 21N40W WHERE
IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 21N50W THEN DISSIPATES TO 24N56W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N.
A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED
NEAR 20N30W. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI.
THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
WESTWARD THROUGH SAT THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE. THE WEAKER SURFACE
TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH
WILL STALL ACROSS THE NW WATERS SAT THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W ALONG 5N17W TO 4N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 3N37W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 22W AND FROM 5N-9N W OF 50W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO TEXAS AND GENERATING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
TO OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 90W. A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE GULF GIVING THE AREA NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO OVER THE FAR E GULF. THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHES OF FOG BEING REPORTED N OF 26N W
OF 89W. CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE FRONT OVER TEXAS WILL ENTER THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE TROUGHS THAT EFFECTED THE CARIBBEAN
YESTERDAY ARE NO LONGER IN THE AREA BUT LINGERING MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 16N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BETWEEN
63W-66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 16N TO OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 66W-74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER
PANAMA AND E OF 79W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON. E-SE WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH ACROSS THE GULF OF
HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PEAKING WITH FRESH TO STRONG E
WINDS SAT NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

LINGERING MOISTURE IS GIVING THE ISLAND POSSIBLE SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEKEND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG A LINE FROM 32N79W TO
DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. THIS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
ARE MOVING EASTWARD NEAR 25 KT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
W AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 33N51W
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS BERMUDA THEN SE ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA INTO THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 71W FROM 25N-28N. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH IS N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 25N58W ALONG
25N63W TO 24N68W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 55W-69W. A
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE E ATLC IS SUPPORTING A 1008 MB LOW
NEAR 30N33W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT N OF THE REGION AND A COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N29W ALONG 25N31W TO 21N40W WHERE
IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 21N50W THEN DISSIPATES TO 24N56W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N.
A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED
NEAR 20N30W. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI.
THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
WESTWARD THROUGH SAT THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE. THE WEAKER SURFACE
TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH
WILL STALL ACROSS THE NW WATERS SAT THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281527
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU APR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N97W TO 07N105W TO 08N110W. THE
ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 08N110W TO 09N115W TO 07N126W TO BEYOND
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT IN AN AREA
BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 09N110W TO 03N138W TO 11N127W TO 09N110W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB NEAR 33N145W RIDGES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE AREA TO 12N110W. BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING IS PRESENT OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IS ANALYZED FROM
31.5N114W TO 31N115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
COLD FRONT AND THE TROUGHING OVER MEXICO IS GENERATING FRESH TO
STRONG NW TO N FLOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BETWEEN 29.5N
AND 30.5N AND ALONG THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST BETWEEN 28N AND 29N.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE GULF AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SAME AREA SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN. WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR GALE
FORCE DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

OTHERWISE...NW SWELLS OF 6-10 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SAT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. SWELLS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SAT NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS OVER THE AREA WITH GENTLE TO
LIGHT WINDS. THE LIGHT WIND REGIME IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

LATEST ALTIMETRY SUGGESTS SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL IS STILL
TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 12 FEET AS IT CROSSES THE EQUATOR W OF THE
GALAPAGOS. THE ECMWF MODEL IS INITIALIZING WELL WITH THESE SWELL
HEIGHTS SO WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF FOR NEAR TERM SEA HEIGHTS IN
THIS AREA.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
N OF THE ITCZ. COMBINED SEAS IN THE 6 TO 9 FT RANGE PERSIST IN
THIS AREA AS SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE...TRADE-WIND AND NW SWELL ALL
BEGIN TO MERGE. THE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO DECAY TONIGHT AND SAT.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED THROUGH SAT
MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEAKENS THE RIDGE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RETIGHTEN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS NEW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

$$
MCELROY



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 06N15W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 06N15W 03N25W
02N33W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 01N TO
03N BETWEEN 03W AND 06W...BETWEEN 14W AND 15W ALONG 06N...FROM
03N TO 06N BETWEEN 17W AND 22W...AND FROM 07N TO 08N ALONG 54W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN NORTHWESTERN
IOWA. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER IS SUPPORTING A SQUALL LINE THAT IS
ALONG 28N85W 32N86W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N84W 30N83W BEYOND 32N82W...FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN
SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. RAINSHOWERS ARE IN SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 90W AND 91W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 29N77W...ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO 27N87W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR CONDITIONS...KXIH...KVAF...AND KEMK.

IFR CONDITIONS...KBQX...KHHV...KEHC...AND KDLP.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KVBS...KHQI...KGUL...KGBK...
KVQT...KGHB...KEIR...KSPR...KGRY...KATP...KMDJ...KIKT...
AND KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR FROM ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON SOUTHWARD...IFR IN
VICTORIA AND LIFR IN BAY CITY. MVFR IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR.
LIFR IN JASPER. LIFR IN HUNTSVILLE. IFR IN CONROE AND TOMBALL.
IFR IN HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN NEW
IBERIA. IFR IN LAFAYETTE. MVFR IN GALLIANO AND BOOTHVILLE. HEAVY
RAIN IN BATON ROUGE. THUNDER IS NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. LIGHT RAIN IN SLIDELL. IFR AND MVFR ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. LIGHT RAIN WAS BEING
REPORTED ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LAKE DURING THE LAST FEW
OBSERVATIONS. THUNDER IN GULFPORT. THUNDER AND LIGHT RAIN IN
BILOXI. MVFR IN PASCAGOULA. ALABAMA...MVFR IN GULF SHORES. LIFR
AT THE CAIRNS ARMY FIELD IN FORT RUCKER AND IN DOTHAN.
FLORIDA...MVFR IN CRESTVIEW. LIFR IN MARIANNA. IFR IN PERRY.

...FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH SPANS THE BAHAMAS...
CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL
WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART FROM JAMAICA WESTWARD.

THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES 20N68W. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT WAS ALONG NORTHERN PUERTO RICO 24
HOURS AGO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 20N
BETWEEN 60W AND 74W INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...SAN JUAN...AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OTHER ISLANDS THAT ARE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO
DOMINGO...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...MVFR CEILING AT 1600 FEET.
PUNTA CANA...THUNDER AND LIGHT RAIN HAVE BEEN PART OF THE
OBSERVATIONS FOR THE LAST SIX HOURS. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. PUERTO PLATA...THUNDER AND LIGHT RAIN WERE
IN THE OBSERVATION A FEW HOURS AGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
NOW...VFR.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL CUT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FOR DAY ONE...
AND WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH A TROUGH FROM CUBA
TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS HAITI...AND
SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AN EAST-TO-WEST
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
REST OF THE NEXT 2 DAYS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 31N34W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM A 32N29W TRIPLE
POINT...TO 28N30W 21N40W 21N44W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 22N44W TO 21N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 21N55W TO
22N64W AND 20N68W AND 20N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT FROM 21N40W NORTHWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 29N
BETWEEN 40W AND 70W...AND FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 74W
INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...SAN JUAN...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND OTHER ISLANDS THAT ARE IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280902
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU APR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N101W TO 07N115W. THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 07N115W TO 06N126W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W...FROM 04N TO
10N BETWEEN 122W AND 132W...AND ALSO FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN
132W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB NEAR 33N145W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE INTO
THE AREA THROUGH 22N120W TO 15N107W. BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING
PREVAILS ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO...INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THAT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IS ANALYZED
FROM 32N119W TO 31N130W. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N FLOW IS FROM
30N-32N WITH GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 32N INCLUDING ACROSS THE
CALIFORNIA CHANNEL ISLANDS. SOME OF THESE WINDS ARE FILTERING
THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE PASSES INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
FROM 29.5N TO 30.5N. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY WHILE WEAKENING...BUT WILL BRING A BRIEF SURGE OF
FRESH TO STRONG NW-N FLOW BEHIND IT IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE GULF AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES LATE
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME
AREA SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN WITH WINDS FORECAST TO BE NEAR
GALE JUST AHEAD OF IT IN THE NORTHERN GULF.

OTHERWISE...NW SWELLS OF 6-10 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SAT... HIGHEST OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENS.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS OVER THE AREA WITH GENTLE TO
LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A NEW SET OF SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL REACH THE SW FACING
SHORES OF THE GALAPAGOS IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS...THEN WILL REACH
THE PACIFIC SHORES OF CENTRAL AMERICA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COMBINED SEAS IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SWELL
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SWELL WILL DECAY SAT NIGHT
WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 4-7 FT ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
N OF THE ITCZ. COMBINED SEAS IN THE 6 TO 9 FT RANGE PREVAIL OVER
THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES OVER THIS REGION THROUGH SAT MORNING...
DIMINISHING THEREAFTER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS DUE TO
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT NW OF THE AREA. THAT FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PUSH SE OF 30N140W MON NIGHT WITH NEW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN ITS WAKE FOR TUE.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280902
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU APR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N101W TO 07N115W. THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 07N115W TO 06N126W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W...FROM 04N TO
10N BETWEEN 122W AND 132W...AND ALSO FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN
132W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB NEAR 33N145W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE INTO
THE AREA THROUGH 22N120W TO 15N107W. BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING
PREVAILS ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO...INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THAT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IS ANALYZED
FROM 32N119W TO 31N130W. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N FLOW IS FROM
30N-32N WITH GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 32N INCLUDING ACROSS THE
CALIFORNIA CHANNEL ISLANDS. SOME OF THESE WINDS ARE FILTERING
THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE PASSES INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
FROM 29.5N TO 30.5N. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY WHILE WEAKENING...BUT WILL BRING A BRIEF SURGE OF
FRESH TO STRONG NW-N FLOW BEHIND IT IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE GULF AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES LATE
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME
AREA SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN WITH WINDS FORECAST TO BE NEAR
GALE JUST AHEAD OF IT IN THE NORTHERN GULF.

OTHERWISE...NW SWELLS OF 6-10 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SAT... HIGHEST OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENS.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS OVER THE AREA WITH GENTLE TO
LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A NEW SET OF SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL REACH THE SW FACING
SHORES OF THE GALAPAGOS IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS...THEN WILL REACH
THE PACIFIC SHORES OF CENTRAL AMERICA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COMBINED SEAS IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SWELL
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SWELL WILL DECAY SAT NIGHT
WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 4-7 FT ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
N OF THE ITCZ. COMBINED SEAS IN THE 6 TO 9 FT RANGE PREVAIL OVER
THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES OVER THIS REGION THROUGH SAT MORNING...
DIMINISHING THEREAFTER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS DUE TO
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT NW OF THE AREA. THAT FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PUSH SE OF 30N140W MON NIGHT WITH NEW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN ITS WAKE FOR TUE.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA
NEAR 09N13W TO 05N18W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 05N18W 03N30W 03N42W
AND 01N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 03N
TO 06N BETWEEN 15W AND 24W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER IS
SUPPORTING A SQUALL LINE/SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH
ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
26N TO 30N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 29N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO 27N/28N ALONG 85W IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR CONDITIONS...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...AND KGRY.

IFR CONDITIONS...KGUL...KGHB...AND KDLP.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KEHC...KVBS...KVQT...
KEIR...KSPR...KATP...AND KMDJ.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MOSTLY IFR WITH A FEW MVFR OBSERVATIONS IN THE LOWER
VALLEY. IFR IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS...NEAR
CORPUS CHRISTI AND ALICE AND KINGSVILLE. LIFR IN VICTORIA.
IFR IN PORT LAVACA AND PALACIOS...IN BAY CITY AND ANGLETON/ LAKE
JACKSON. A MIXTURE OF IFR AND MVFR IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN
AREA...MVFR IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...VFR IN GALVESTON. LIFR IN
CONROE. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN NEW IBERIA. MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...IFR IN MARIANNA AND PERRY.

...FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CUBA INTO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH
SPANS CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL
WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND FROM JAMAICA WESTWARD.

THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES 20N60W. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT WAS ALONG NORTHERN PUERTO RICO 24
HOURS AGO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 20N
BETWEEN 60W AND 74W INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...SAN JUAN...AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OTHER ISLANDS THAT ARE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A VFR CEILING AT 28/0000 UTC. FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. SANTO DOMINGO...RAIN AND
THUNDER. LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...FEW
REMAINING CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AFTER EARLIER RAINSHOWERS.
SANTIAGO...A MVFR CLOUD CEILING AT 1600 FEET. PUERTO PLATA...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 7000 FEET...
VFR.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL CUT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FOR DAY ONE...
AND WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH A TROUGH FROM CUBA
TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS HAITI...AND
SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AN EAST-TO-WEST
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
REST OF THE NEXT 2 DAYS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 30N36W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM A 32N30W TRIPLE
POINT...TO 29N30W 22N40W 22N46W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 22N46W TO 23N56W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 23N56W TO
24N64W 22N68W AND 20N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT FROM
23N36W NORTHWARD. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W...AND FROM
18N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 74W INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...
SAN JUAN...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OTHER ISLANDS THAT ARE IN
THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280227
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU APR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N116W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN W OF 121W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1028 MB EXTENDS A RIDGE SE INTO THE AREA
THROUGH 12N105W. A SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS OVER MEXICO. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS FOUND OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NW MEXICO OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU. WINDS
HAVE STRENGTHENED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. WINDS OVER THE AREA WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS
BY THU NIGHT. NW SWELLS ARE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FORECAST
WATERS. SEAS WILL IN THE 6 TO 10 FT RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THE HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS OVER THE AREA WITH GENTLE TO
LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CURRENTLY COMBINED SEAS
ARE IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL. A NEW SET
OF SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL REACH THE SW FACING SHORES OF
THE GALAPAGOS BY THU NIGHT...THEN REACH THE PACIFIC SHORES OF
CENTRAL AMERICA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COMBINED SEAS IN THE
6-9 FT RANGE ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SWELL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
N OF THE ITCZ. COMBINED SEAS IN THE 6 TO 9 FT RANGE PREVAIL OVER
THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES OVER THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS WITH SEAS IN THE 6 TO 9 FT RANGE WILL
MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS THURSDAY AND PROPAGATE SE.

$$
AL



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
3N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-2N BETWEEN 8W-
11W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 17W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM S MISSISSIPPI AT 30N89W TO 25N93W TO E OF TAMPICO MEXICO AT
22N97W MOVING E. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS INTO THE
NE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-89W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS NOW VOID OF PRECIPITATION.
10-20 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH THE
STRONGEST SURFACE GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF
90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER E NEBRASKA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CIRCULATION IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-
89W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF S OF 28N.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PERSIST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS AND SEAS 2-4 FT. CONVECTION OVER
INLAND COLOMBIA AND INLAND VENEZUELA HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...S NICARAGUA...AND JAMAICA. ELSEWHERE A
SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 23N61W TO 22N66W
TO 20N69W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS N OF 17N BETWEEN 60W-73W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W
OF 75W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND INLAND OVER NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH N
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO MOVE W AT 12 KT TO N OF HISPANIOLA AND
OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE
TO THE TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-25N
BETWEEN 58W-69W. ELSEWHERE A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N37W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N31W TO
24N40W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 23N58W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N BETWEEN 29W-32W... AND
FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 48W-58W. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N26W. EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE E TO 31N32W
IN 24 HOURS AND FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E LIKEWISE WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
3N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-2N BETWEEN 8W-
11W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 17W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM S MISSISSIPPI AT 30N89W TO 25N93W TO E OF TAMPICO MEXICO AT
22N97W MOVING E. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS INTO THE
NE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-89W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS NOW VOID OF PRECIPITATION.
10-20 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH THE
STRONGEST SURFACE GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF
90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER E NEBRASKA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CIRCULATION IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-
89W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF S OF 28N.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PERSIST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS AND SEAS 2-4 FT. CONVECTION OVER
INLAND COLOMBIA AND INLAND VENEZUELA HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...S NICARAGUA...AND JAMAICA. ELSEWHERE A
SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 23N61W TO 22N66W
TO 20N69W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS N OF 17N BETWEEN 60W-73W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W
OF 75W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND INLAND OVER NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH N
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO MOVE W AT 12 KT TO N OF HISPANIOLA AND
OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE
TO THE TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-25N
BETWEEN 58W-69W. ELSEWHERE A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N37W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N31W TO
24N40W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 23N58W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N BETWEEN 29W-32W... AND
FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 48W-58W. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N26W. EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE E TO 31N32W
IN 24 HOURS AND FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E LIKEWISE WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
3N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-2N BETWEEN 8W-
11W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 17W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM S MISSISSIPPI AT 30N89W TO 25N93W TO E OF TAMPICO MEXICO AT
22N97W MOVING E. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS INTO THE
NE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-89W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS NOW VOID OF PRECIPITATION.
10-20 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH THE
STRONGEST SURFACE GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF
90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER E NEBRASKA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CIRCULATION IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-
89W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF S OF 28N.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PERSIST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS AND SEAS 2-4 FT. CONVECTION OVER
INLAND COLOMBIA AND INLAND VENEZUELA HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...S NICARAGUA...AND JAMAICA. ELSEWHERE A
SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 23N61W TO 22N66W
TO 20N69W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS N OF 17N BETWEEN 60W-73W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W
OF 75W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND INLAND OVER NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH N
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO MOVE W AT 12 KT TO N OF HISPANIOLA AND
OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE
TO THE TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-25N
BETWEEN 58W-69W. ELSEWHERE A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N37W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N31W TO
24N40W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 23N58W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N BETWEEN 29W-32W... AND
FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 48W-58W. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N26W. EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE E TO 31N32W
IN 24 HOURS AND FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E LIKEWISE WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
3N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-2N BETWEEN 8W-
11W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 17W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM S MISSISSIPPI AT 30N89W TO 25N93W TO E OF TAMPICO MEXICO AT
22N97W MOVING E. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS INTO THE
NE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-89W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS NOW VOID OF PRECIPITATION.
10-20 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH THE
STRONGEST SURFACE GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF
90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER E NEBRASKA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CIRCULATION IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-
89W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF S OF 28N.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PERSIST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS AND SEAS 2-4 FT. CONVECTION OVER
INLAND COLOMBIA AND INLAND VENEZUELA HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...S NICARAGUA...AND JAMAICA. ELSEWHERE A
SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 23N61W TO 22N66W
TO 20N69W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS N OF 17N BETWEEN 60W-73W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W
OF 75W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND INLAND OVER NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH N
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO MOVE W AT 12 KT TO N OF HISPANIOLA AND
OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE
TO THE TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-25N
BETWEEN 58W-69W. ELSEWHERE A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N37W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N31W TO
24N40W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 23N58W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N BETWEEN 29W-32W... AND
FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 48W-58W. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N26W. EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE E TO 31N32W
IN 24 HOURS AND FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E LIKEWISE WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272113
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N115W TO 06N125W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 115W AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED
WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ W OF
130W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1028 MB CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 31N144W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 17N108W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ
IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF
120W. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THE SAME OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND MAINTAIN THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS. NW SWELL IS PROPAGATING
INTO THE AREA. SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT ARE COVERING THE NORTHERN
WATERS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT
ARE ALSO COVERING THE AREA OF TRADEWINDS DESCRIBED ABOVE WHERE
THE NW SWELL IS MIXING WITH NE TRADEWIND SWELL. CROSS EQUATORIAL
SW SWELL WILL MERGE WITH THE NW SWELL OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 25 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GAPE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT LIES OVER THE EASTERN WATERS.

$$
AL



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 5N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 4N21W TO 3N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 21W-
27W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 3W-21W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO OVER
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GENERATING A SQUALL LINE AT
27/1500 UTC FROM OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W TO 29N93W
WHERE IT CONTINUES AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO NE MEXICO NEAR
25N98W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60
NM W OF THE SQUALL LINE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. THE SQUALL LINE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING SE NEAR 25
KT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA
INTO THE E GULF. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE SQUALL
LINE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SE THROUGH TODAY BRINGING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE N GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT PULSING
STRONG E TO SE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W ANCHORED S OF
CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 19N74W ACROSS SW HAITI TO 15N72W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE TAIL END A REMNANT FRONT ANALYZED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC THROUGH 21N64W ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 18N70W. THIS IS GIVING THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND THE MONA PASSAGE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER HAITI WILL DRIFT W TO E CUBA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THU.

HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N74W ACROSS SW HAITI TO 15N72W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE TAIL END A REMNANT
FRONT ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC
THROUGH 21N64W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 18N70W. THIS IS
GIVING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE MONA PASSAGE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER HAITI
WILL DRIFT W TO E CUBA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THU. THUS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE
HISPANIOLA SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH ABOUT 500 NM NE OF BERMUDA AND
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS BERMUDA AND NE FLORIDA INTO THE E
GULF OF MEXICO. A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS IN THE NE ATLC SUPPORTING
A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 31N40W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT N OF THE REGION
AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N34W ALONG 27N37W TO
23N45W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 21N56W THEN CONTINUES AS A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 21N64W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
18N70W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120
NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 28N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 25N-28N.
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A WEAK 1019 MB
HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 27N26W.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE E ATLC THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT W THROUGH THU
BEFORE DISSIPATING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 5N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 4N21W TO 3N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 21W-
27W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 3W-21W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO OVER
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GENERATING A SQUALL LINE AT
27/1500 UTC FROM OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W TO 29N93W
WHERE IT CONTINUES AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO NE MEXICO NEAR
25N98W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60
NM W OF THE SQUALL LINE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. THE SQUALL LINE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING SE NEAR 25
KT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA
INTO THE E GULF. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE SQUALL
LINE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SE THROUGH TODAY BRINGING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE N GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT PULSING
STRONG E TO SE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W ANCHORED S OF
CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 19N74W ACROSS SW HAITI TO 15N72W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE TAIL END A REMNANT FRONT ANALYZED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC THROUGH 21N64W ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 18N70W. THIS IS GIVING THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND THE MONA PASSAGE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER HAITI WILL DRIFT W TO E CUBA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THU.

HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N74W ACROSS SW HAITI TO 15N72W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE TAIL END A REMNANT
FRONT ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC
THROUGH 21N64W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 18N70W. THIS IS
GIVING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE MONA PASSAGE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER HAITI
WILL DRIFT W TO E CUBA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THU. THUS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE
HISPANIOLA SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH ABOUT 500 NM NE OF BERMUDA AND
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS BERMUDA AND NE FLORIDA INTO THE E
GULF OF MEXICO. A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS IN THE NE ATLC SUPPORTING
A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 31N40W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT N OF THE REGION
AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N34W ALONG 27N37W TO
23N45W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 21N56W THEN CONTINUES AS A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 21N64W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
18N70W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120
NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 28N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 25N-28N.
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A WEAK 1019 MB
HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 27N26W.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE E ATLC THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT W THROUGH THU
BEFORE DISSIPATING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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