Home > Products > National Data >
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181513
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI APR 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HIGH PRES BUILDING W OF COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL INCREASE NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20-25 KT INTO THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE TODAY WITH MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY TONIGHT THROUGH SAT WITH SEAS TO 12 FT. NORTHERLY WINDS
DECREASE SAT EVENING TO 20-30 KT AND CONTINUE TO SUN WITH SEAS 8
TO 10 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N78W TO 06N90W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
06N90W TO 07N110W TO 05N133W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 78W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 116W AND
133W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS W OF 130W...AND S
OF 20N W OF 110W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W
AND 130W TO INCLUDE BAJA CALIFORNIA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF
THE TROUGH AXIS IS PRODUCING OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS OVER N MEXICO
N OF 20N BETWEEN 102W AND 115W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE TROPICS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 110W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS TROUGH AXIS IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION OVER THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH FROM 03N TO 07N
BETWEEN 78W AND 104W.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE AREA NEAR
29 N146W. SURFACE RIDGING IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. FRESH TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS COVERS
THE AREA BASICALLY FROM 12N TO 16N W OF 138W. ALTIMETER DATA
INDICATES SEAS TO 9 FT IN THIS AREA AS WELL. TRADEWIND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 116W
AND 133W. ELSEWHERE...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE SURFACE HIGH AND A 1007 MB LOW OVER N BAJA CALIFORNIA IS
PRODUCING LOCALLY FRESH NW FLOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA. 8 FT SWELL ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN 121W AND 124W.
EXPECT A NEW SWELL TRAIN TO ENTER THE NW CORNER IN 48 HOURS WITH
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 181047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN THIS MORNING
WITHIN 90 NM NW OF A LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BE NEAR
29N88W. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING
AS THE LOW MOVES OVER FLORIDA. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N18W TO 4N20W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N28W 1N35W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 39W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF
3N W OF 44W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO S
OF THE EQUATOR E OF 17W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 4N TO S
OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 22W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OVER THE W GULF AMPLIFYING AN UPPER
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM E/CENTRAL CUBA E OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. A 1012 MB LOW DEVELOPED AT 18/0600 UTC CENTERED NEAR
28N87W WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW TO 23N91W. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ALONG 28N85W TO NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA
WHERE IT CONNECTS TO THE A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT IN THE W
ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 23N92W
TO THE COAST OF S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF
LINE FROM 22N91W ALONG 25N88W TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST
NEAR APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW
GULF S OF 23N W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT N THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW MOVING E-NE. BY SAT
MORNING THE LOW WILL BE OVER N FLORIDA WITH THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING S-SW OVER THE FAR E GULF. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE E AWAY
FROM FLORIDA DURING SAT AFTERNOON PUSHING THE FRONT E OF THE
AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF SAT NIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM NW VENEZUELA ACROSS E/CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 72W-82W AND S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA E OF 69W TO OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE N OF A LINE FROM GRENADA TO 1N72W COVERING THE LESSER
ANTILLES...VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE E PORTION OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE
WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS NEAR THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE
THROUGH SAT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SUN AS A
WEAK LOW MOVES INTO THE W ATLC FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER SW HAITI WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. THE UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW VENEZUELA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W
ATLC WILL FLATTEN OUT THROUGH FRI WHEN NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVING THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH
THE AXIS JUST E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A REMNANT STATIONARY
FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N72W AND EXTENDS ALONG 28N77W TO
OVER THE FLORIDA NEAR VERO BEACH TO TAMPA BAY. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED
BY A 1032 MB HIGH ABOUT 600 NM NE OF BERMUDA. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC TO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N33W ALONG 29N38W TO
26N47W. W ATLC FRONT WILL DRIFT N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THIS
MORNING. SURFACE LOW OVER THE NE GULF WILL SLOWLY MOVE E ACROSS
N FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180905
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI APR 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HIGH PRES BUILDING W OF COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL INCREASE NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20-25 KT INTO THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC ON LATE TODAY WITH MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SAT WITH ONLY 15-20 KT N WINDS EXPECTED BY
SAT EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 7N85W TO 5N100W TO 8N115W TO 6N132W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 130 NM S OF AXIS FROM
88W-102W AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 125W-135W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 32N120W TO 20N124W. SW WINDS E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. IN THE DEEP TROPICS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
NEAR 7N132W NE TO 16N101W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN
125W-135W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR
8N104W.

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 14N W OF 108W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING 15-20 KT WINDS FROM 5N-18N W OF
135W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE AND S SWELL. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AREA OF NW SWELL TO
8 FT IS N OF 28N BETWEEN 123W-128W. THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO
BELOW 8 FT SAT.

$$
DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180905
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI APR 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HIGH PRES BUILDING W OF COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL INCREASE NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20-25 KT INTO THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC ON LATE TODAY WITH MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SAT WITH ONLY 15-20 KT N WINDS EXPECTED BY
SAT EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 7N85W TO 5N100W TO 8N115W TO 6N132W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 130 NM S OF AXIS FROM
88W-102W AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 125W-135W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 32N120W TO 20N124W. SW WINDS E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. IN THE DEEP TROPICS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
NEAR 7N132W NE TO 16N101W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN
125W-135W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR
8N104W.

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 14N W OF 108W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING 15-20 KT WINDS FROM 5N-18N W OF
135W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE AND S SWELL. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AREA OF NW SWELL TO
8 FT IS N OF 28N BETWEEN 123W-128W. THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO
BELOW 8 FT SAT.

$$
DGS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 180539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN THIS MORNING
WITHIN 90 NM NW OF A LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BE NEAR
29N88W. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT MORNING AS
THE LOW MOVES E OF THE GULF. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N11W AND CONTINUES TO 4N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES NEAR 2N20W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AT 18/0300 UTC
ENTERING THE GULF NEAR FORT MYERS AND CONTINUING ALONG 28N87W TO
26N92W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE S GULF EXTENDING FROM
23N91W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS
DIGGING S OVER THE W GULF FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ACROSS E TEXAS AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM W
CUBA OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
23N91W TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR FORT WALTON BEACH
FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF A LINE FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO. STATIONARY FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH EARLY FRI. A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE
N/CENTRAL GULF LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR 29N88W WITH A
COLD FRONT TRAILING TO 24N91W FRI MORNING WITH THE LOW NEAR
30N85W AND THE FRONT EXTENDING TO 25N89W FRI EVENING. BOTH
FRONT/LOW WILL MOVE  E OF THE GULF BY SAT MORNING. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED NW THE LOW WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE
NE GULF AHEAD OF THE LOW. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GULF SAT NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM NW VENEZUELA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC. THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-80W AND S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA E OF 69W TO OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE N OF A LINE FROM GRENADA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR
18N70W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR
WEATHER THIS MORNING. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGH SAT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SUN AS A WEAK LOW MOVES
INTO THE SW ATLC.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HAITI AND THE SW PORTION OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW
VENEZUELA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC WILL FLATTEN OUT
THROUGH FRI WHEN NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND GIVING THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 18/0300 UTC NEAR 32N72W AND
EXTENDS ALONG 27N77W ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS AND OVER THE FLORIDA
NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE TO FORT MYERS CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND THE
CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH ABOUT 650 NM NE OF
BERMUDA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC TO OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC ARE SUPPORTING A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS THAT
EXTEND THROUGH 32N16W ALONG 25N25W TO 20N36W WITH A SECOND FROM
33N24W TO 22N40W. W ATLC FRONT WILL DRIFT N AS A WARM FRONT
THROUGH FRI. SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO FRI AND WILL SLOWLY DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 180539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN THIS MORNING
WITHIN 90 NM NW OF A LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BE NEAR
29N88W. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT MORNING AS
THE LOW MOVES E OF THE GULF. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N11W AND CONTINUES TO 4N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES NEAR 2N20W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AT 18/0300 UTC
ENTERING THE GULF NEAR FORT MYERS AND CONTINUING ALONG 28N87W TO
26N92W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE S GULF EXTENDING FROM
23N91W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS
DIGGING S OVER THE W GULF FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ACROSS E TEXAS AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM W
CUBA OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
23N91W TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR FORT WALTON BEACH
FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF A LINE FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO. STATIONARY FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH EARLY FRI. A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE
N/CENTRAL GULF LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR 29N88W WITH A
COLD FRONT TRAILING TO 24N91W FRI MORNING WITH THE LOW NEAR
30N85W AND THE FRONT EXTENDING TO 25N89W FRI EVENING. BOTH
FRONT/LOW WILL MOVE  E OF THE GULF BY SAT MORNING. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED NW THE LOW WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE
NE GULF AHEAD OF THE LOW. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GULF SAT NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM NW VENEZUELA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC. THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-80W AND S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA E OF 69W TO OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE N OF A LINE FROM GRENADA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR
18N70W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR
WEATHER THIS MORNING. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGH SAT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SUN AS A WEAK LOW MOVES
INTO THE SW ATLC.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HAITI AND THE SW PORTION OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW
VENEZUELA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC WILL FLATTEN OUT
THROUGH FRI WHEN NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND GIVING THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 18/0300 UTC NEAR 32N72W AND
EXTENDS ALONG 27N77W ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS AND OVER THE FLORIDA
NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE TO FORT MYERS CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND THE
CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH ABOUT 650 NM NE OF
BERMUDA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC TO OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC ARE SUPPORTING A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS THAT
EXTEND THROUGH 32N16W ALONG 25N25W TO 20N36W WITH A SECOND FROM
33N24W TO 22N40W. W ATLC FRONT WILL DRIFT N AS A WARM FRONT
THROUGH FRI. SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO FRI AND WILL SLOWLY DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180231
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI APR 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE SWELL FROM
YESTERDAYS STORM/GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS
PROPAGATED WELL SW OF THE AREA NEAR 10N105W AND CONTINUES TO
MIX WITH LONG-PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL. COMBINED SEAS
WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT NEAR 07N104W LATE TONIGHT.

A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG A NORTHWARD DRIFTING WARM FRONT
OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT
TO THE NE ACROSS FL ON FRI IT WILL DRAG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FRONT E AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS WILL
SURGE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON FRI EVENING WITH A MINIMAL
GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNRISE ON SAT...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SAT WITH ONLY 15-20 KT N WINDS EXPECTED ON SAT EVENING. THE
NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON SUN. THE NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM SHOULD ONLY
NE 15-20 KT EACH NIGHT FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA
AT 10N85W TO 06N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ AXIS...WHICH CONTINUES WSW TO 05N101W TO
05N113W TO BEYOND 03N140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG AND
TO THE SE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE
ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N83W TO 05N87W TO
06N94W TO 04N100W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND TO THE N
OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM 04N120W TO 06N138W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA AT 31N122W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND
24N140W AND ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR WITHIN 180 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SWINGING E ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S ACROSS CENTRAL OF MEXICO
TO A BASE AT 23N100W. A BAND OF VERY DRY UPPER AIR FOLLOWS THE
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 07N130W WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING N-NE BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS TO A SHARP
CREST AMPLIFYING N ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS W FROM THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE DEEP
TROPICS TO BEYOND 09N140W WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE S OF THIS RIDGE
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ
AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E-NE FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE TO A FAIRLY SHARP CREST AT 13N105W. THIN LINE OF
MODERATE CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED FROM 12.5N102W TO 07N120W
AND FROM 02N113W TO 03N118W. DENSE UPPER MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
E ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER ANTICYCLONE...WITHIN 150
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18N140W TO 25N115W TO ACROSS MEXICO
BETWEEN 18-24N...THEN TURNING NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS DISSIPATING OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC FROM
15N92W TO 07N107W. THIS TROUGH SEPARATES THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALREADY MENTIONED OVER THE NW PORTION FROM ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE S OF 15N E OF 93W
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
12N80W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
ANTICYCLONE IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED WITH SOME OF THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED
NE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.

A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N140W TO NEAR 16N102W.
NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 05N TO
THE W OF 122W...WITH SEAS OF 6-9 FT IN MIXED LONG PERIOD NW AND
NE SWELL AND STILL MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE
SWELL. THIS AFFECTED AREA S OF THE RIDGE WILL SHRINK WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT TO THE NE OF THE RIDGE
WILL SPREAD SE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 120-130W WITH
SEAS OF 6-9 FT IN MIXED N AND LONG PERIOD S SWELL. THE SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE BEFORE REACHING THE PACIFIC WATERS ALONG THE BAJA
PENINSULA WITH SEAS OF 4-7 FT EXPECTED TILL EARLY MON. GUIDANCE
SHOWS A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL ARRIVING AT 30N140W LATE SAT AND
REACHING THE NW COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM COMBINED
SEAS OF 6-9 FT ON MON.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180231
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI APR 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE SWELL FROM
YESTERDAYS STORM/GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS
PROPAGATED WELL SW OF THE AREA NEAR 10N105W AND CONTINUES TO
MIX WITH LONG-PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL. COMBINED SEAS
WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT NEAR 07N104W LATE TONIGHT.

A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG A NORTHWARD DRIFTING WARM FRONT
OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT
TO THE NE ACROSS FL ON FRI IT WILL DRAG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FRONT E AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS WILL
SURGE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON FRI EVENING WITH A MINIMAL
GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNRISE ON SAT...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SAT WITH ONLY 15-20 KT N WINDS EXPECTED ON SAT EVENING. THE
NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON SUN. THE NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM SHOULD ONLY
NE 15-20 KT EACH NIGHT FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA
AT 10N85W TO 06N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ AXIS...WHICH CONTINUES WSW TO 05N101W TO
05N113W TO BEYOND 03N140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG AND
TO THE SE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE
ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N83W TO 05N87W TO
06N94W TO 04N100W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND TO THE N
OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM 04N120W TO 06N138W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA AT 31N122W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND
24N140W AND ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR WITHIN 180 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SWINGING E ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S ACROSS CENTRAL OF MEXICO
TO A BASE AT 23N100W. A BAND OF VERY DRY UPPER AIR FOLLOWS THE
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 07N130W WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING N-NE BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS TO A SHARP
CREST AMPLIFYING N ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. AN
UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS W FROM THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE DEEP
TROPICS TO BEYOND 09N140W WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE S OF THIS RIDGE
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ
AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E-NE FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE TO A FAIRLY SHARP CREST AT 13N105W. THIN LINE OF
MODERATE CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED FROM 12.5N102W TO 07N120W
AND FROM 02N113W TO 03N118W. DENSE UPPER MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
E ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER ANTICYCLONE...WITHIN 150
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18N140W TO 25N115W TO ACROSS MEXICO
BETWEEN 18-24N...THEN TURNING NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS DISSIPATING OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC FROM
15N92W TO 07N107W. THIS TROUGH SEPARATES THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALREADY MENTIONED OVER THE NW PORTION FROM ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE S OF 15N E OF 93W
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
12N80W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
ANTICYCLONE IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED WITH SOME OF THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED
NE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.

A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N140W TO NEAR 16N102W.
NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 05N TO
THE W OF 122W...WITH SEAS OF 6-9 FT IN MIXED LONG PERIOD NW AND
NE SWELL AND STILL MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE
SWELL. THIS AFFECTED AREA S OF THE RIDGE WILL SHRINK WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT TO THE NE OF THE RIDGE
WILL SPREAD SE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 120-130W WITH
SEAS OF 6-9 FT IN MIXED N AND LONG PERIOD S SWELL. THE SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE BEFORE REACHING THE PACIFIC WATERS ALONG THE BAJA
PENINSULA WITH SEAS OF 4-7 FT EXPECTED TILL EARLY MON. GUIDANCE
SHOWS A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL ARRIVING AT 30N140W LATE SAT AND
REACHING THE NW COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM COMBINED
SEAS OF 6-9 FT ON MON.

$$
NELSON


000
AXNT20 KNHC 180003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EST THU APR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 27N82W TO 27N87W TO 26N94W. EXPECT
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9
FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST OF 89W FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO. THE 18-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A WARM FRONT
FROM 30N83W TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO BE NEAR
28.5N88W. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE 1011 MB LOW CENTER
TO 24N92W. EXPECT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET...
WITHIN 150 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER.
EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH GALE FORCE WINDS...AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 11 FEET...ALSO WITHIN 90 NM NORTHWEST AND NORTH QUADRANTS OF
THE 1011 MB LOW CENTER.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA
NEAR 7N11W TO 4N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N14W TO 1N23W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 29W...TO 3S36W AND 2S39W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2S TO 4S BETWEEN 24W AND
28W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM
4N TO 4S BETWEEN 18W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL U.S.A. FROM KANSAS TO TEXAS AND INTO MEXICO. MOST OF THE
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT HAS BEEN
ACCOMPANYING THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GULF OF MEXICO
STATIONARY FRONT IS TO THE NORTH OF 32N. SOME CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
REMAINS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF
70W. THE STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO 28N76W...TO
THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N80W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N86W...TO 26N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 24N92W 22N94W 19N94W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND 93W IN THE WATERS THAT ARE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES BETWEEN ALABAMA AND
LOUISIANA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN
FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS AND THE NEARBY WATERS FROM 26N TO 28N
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...AND IN
CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND 82W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
SITES...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KVAF...KGUL...A CEILING AT 6500
FEET AT KHQI...KGBK...KCRH...A CEILING AT 7500 FEET AT KVBS...
KATP...KIPN...KMDJ...AND KDLP. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS
WITH FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KBBF...
KBQX...KATP...KIPN...KMDJ...AND KDLP.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM
FALFURRIAS TO VICTORIA AND ROCKPORT. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. LIGHT
RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN PALACIOS. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL LOUISIANA. RAIN IS BEING
REPORTED IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INCLUDING AROUND THE LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND SPOTTY RAINSHOWERS
COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WEST OF MARIANNA. HEAVY RAIN IS BEING
REPORTED AT TIMES IN APALACHICOLA AND IN TALLAHASSEE. A MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN PERRY FLORIDA. LOW
LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TAMPA
METROPOLITAN AREA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN
COVER PUNTA GORDA AND SARASOTA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
THE AREA FROM FORT MYERS TO NAPLES. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING COVERS
THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY...TO THE EAST OF 70W... TO
THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND TO THE WEST OF 80W...
IN THE SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
17/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.48 IN
GUADELOUPE...0.24 IN ST. THOMAS...AND 0.05 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO
RICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 FEET FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W.

...HISPANIOLA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER BARAHONA.
LOW CLOUDS WITH NEARBY RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO
DOMINGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER LA ROMANA. IT IS RAINING AROUND
PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 240 NM TO 300 NM
TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY AN INVERTED TROUGH FOR THE FIRST18
HOURS OR SO. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE REST OF THE TIME...RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
BAHAMAS/CUBA RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 29N57W 23N57W
17N57W...TO 12N64W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. THIS TROUGH HAS MOVED EASTWARD INTO PHASE WITH THE ALREADY-
EXISTING LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN THAT PART OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 34N29W 24N46W THAT IS
DESCRIBED IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH IS PART OF THE ALREADY-EXISTING
LONGWAVE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 19N TO 25N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 28N BETWEEN 54W AND 64W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N74W TO
NEAR WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W.
EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET
ELSEWHERE WITHIN AN AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 31N70W
TO 31N35W TO 24N35W TO 19N64W TO 31N70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 180003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EST THU APR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 27N82W TO 27N87W TO 26N94W. EXPECT
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9
FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST OF 89W FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO. THE 18-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A WARM FRONT
FROM 30N83W TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO BE NEAR
28.5N88W. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE 1011 MB LOW CENTER
TO 24N92W. EXPECT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET...
WITHIN 150 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER.
EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH GALE FORCE WINDS...AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 11 FEET...ALSO WITHIN 90 NM NORTHWEST AND NORTH QUADRANTS OF
THE 1011 MB LOW CENTER.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA
NEAR 7N11W TO 4N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N14W TO 1N23W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 29W...TO 3S36W AND 2S39W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2S TO 4S BETWEEN 24W AND
28W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM
4N TO 4S BETWEEN 18W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL U.S.A. FROM KANSAS TO TEXAS AND INTO MEXICO. MOST OF THE
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT HAS BEEN
ACCOMPANYING THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GULF OF MEXICO
STATIONARY FRONT IS TO THE NORTH OF 32N. SOME CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
REMAINS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF
70W. THE STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO 28N76W...TO
THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N80W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N86W...TO 26N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 24N92W 22N94W 19N94W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND 93W IN THE WATERS THAT ARE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES BETWEEN ALABAMA AND
LOUISIANA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN
FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS AND THE NEARBY WATERS FROM 26N TO 28N
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...AND IN
CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND 82W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
SITES...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KVAF...KGUL...A CEILING AT 6500
FEET AT KHQI...KGBK...KCRH...A CEILING AT 7500 FEET AT KVBS...
KATP...KIPN...KMDJ...AND KDLP. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS
WITH FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KBBF...
KBQX...KATP...KIPN...KMDJ...AND KDLP.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM
FALFURRIAS TO VICTORIA AND ROCKPORT. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. LIGHT
RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN PALACIOS. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL LOUISIANA. RAIN IS BEING
REPORTED IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INCLUDING AROUND THE LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND SPOTTY RAINSHOWERS
COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WEST OF MARIANNA. HEAVY RAIN IS BEING
REPORTED AT TIMES IN APALACHICOLA AND IN TALLAHASSEE. A MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN PERRY FLORIDA. LOW
LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TAMPA
METROPOLITAN AREA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN
COVER PUNTA GORDA AND SARASOTA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
THE AREA FROM FORT MYERS TO NAPLES. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING COVERS
THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY...TO THE EAST OF 70W... TO
THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND TO THE WEST OF 80W...
IN THE SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
17/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.48 IN
GUADELOUPE...0.24 IN ST. THOMAS...AND 0.05 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO
RICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 FEET FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W.

...HISPANIOLA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER BARAHONA.
LOW CLOUDS WITH NEARBY RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO
DOMINGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER LA ROMANA. IT IS RAINING AROUND
PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 240 NM TO 300 NM
TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY AN INVERTED TROUGH FOR THE FIRST18
HOURS OR SO. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE REST OF THE TIME...RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
BAHAMAS/CUBA RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 29N57W 23N57W
17N57W...TO 12N64W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. THIS TROUGH HAS MOVED EASTWARD INTO PHASE WITH THE ALREADY-
EXISTING LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN THAT PART OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 34N29W 24N46W THAT IS
DESCRIBED IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH IS PART OF THE ALREADY-EXISTING
LONGWAVE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 19N TO 25N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 28N BETWEEN 54W AND 64W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N74W TO
NEAR WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W.
EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET
ELSEWHERE WITHIN AN AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 31N70W
TO 31N35W TO 24N35W TO 19N64W TO 31N70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172148
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU APR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE SWELL FROM
YESTERDAYS STORM/GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SW MIXING WITH LONG-PERIOD CROSS
EQUATORIAL S SWELL. SEAS WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT NEAR
07N104W LATE TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG A NORTHWARD
DRIFTING WARM FRONT OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY TONIGHT. AS
THE LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NE IT WILL MOVE THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FRONT E AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ON FRI EVENING WITH A MINIMAL
GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNRISE ON SAT...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SAT WITH ONLY 15-20 KT N WINDS EXPECTED ON SAT EVENING. THE
NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON SUN. THE NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM SHOULD ONLY
NE 15-20 KT EACH NIGHT FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA
AT 10N85W TO 06N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ AXIS...WHICH CONTINUES WSW TO 05N101W TO
05N114W TO BEYOND 03N140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ WITHIN
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINES FROM 05.5N82W TO 04.5N99W AND
FROM 10N91W TO 05.5N95W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND
TO THE N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
08N103W TO 04N108W AND WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 04N122W TO 06N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA AT 31N125W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND
25N140W AND ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
SWINGING E ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING S ACROSS CENTRAL OF MEXICO TO A BASE AT 22N103W. A
BAND OF VERY DRY UPPER AIR FOLLOW THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NW OLD
MEXICO.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 08N129W WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING N-NE BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS TO A SHARP
CREST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO
EXTENDS W FROM THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS TO BEYOND
13N140W WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE S OF THIS RIDGE ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E-NE FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO A
FAIRLY SHARP CREST AT 14N109W. DRY UPPER AIR WITHIN THE
ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
TROPICS FROM 06-17N BETWEEN 107-127W...EXCEPT FOR A THIN LINE OF
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 02N116W TO 03N120W. DENSE UPPER
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED E ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER
ANTICYCLONE...WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N140W
TO 25N116W TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AT 24N96W WHERE THE
MOISTURE TURNS NE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS DISSIPATING OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC FROM
16N95W TO 03N113W. THIS TROUGH SEPARATES THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALREADY MENTIONED OVER THE NW PORTION FROM ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE S OF 15N E OF 94W
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
10N80W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
ANTICYCLONE IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED.

A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N140W TO NEAR 16N102W.
NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 05N TO
THE W OF 122W...WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN MIXED LONG PERIOD NW AND
NE SWELL AND STILL MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE
SWELL. THIS AFFECTED AREA S OF THE RIDGE WILL SHRINK WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT NE OF THE RIDGE
WILL SPREAD SE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 120-130W WITH
SEAS OF 6-9 FT IN MIXED N AND LONG PERIOD S SWELL. THE SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE BEFORE REACHING THE PACIFIC WATERS ALONG THE BAJA
PENINSULA WITH SEAS OF 4-7 FT EXPECTED TILL EARLY MON. GUIDANCE
SHOWS A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL ARRIVING AT 30N140W LATE SAT AND
REACHING THE NW COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM COMBINED
SEAS OF 6-9 FT ON MON.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172148
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU APR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE SWELL FROM
YESTERDAYS STORM/GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SW MIXING WITH LONG-PERIOD CROSS
EQUATORIAL S SWELL. SEAS WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT NEAR
07N104W LATE TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG A NORTHWARD
DRIFTING WARM FRONT OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY TONIGHT. AS
THE LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NE IT WILL MOVE THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FRONT E AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ON FRI EVENING WITH A MINIMAL
GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNRISE ON SAT...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SAT WITH ONLY 15-20 KT N WINDS EXPECTED ON SAT EVENING. THE
NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON SUN. THE NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM SHOULD ONLY
NE 15-20 KT EACH NIGHT FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA
AT 10N85W TO 06N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ AXIS...WHICH CONTINUES WSW TO 05N101W TO
05N114W TO BEYOND 03N140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ WITHIN
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINES FROM 05.5N82W TO 04.5N99W AND
FROM 10N91W TO 05.5N95W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND
TO THE N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
08N103W TO 04N108W AND WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 04N122W TO 06N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA AT 31N125W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND
25N140W AND ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
SWINGING E ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING S ACROSS CENTRAL OF MEXICO TO A BASE AT 22N103W. A
BAND OF VERY DRY UPPER AIR FOLLOW THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NW OLD
MEXICO.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 08N129W WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING N-NE BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS TO A SHARP
CREST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO
EXTENDS W FROM THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS TO BEYOND
13N140W WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE S OF THIS RIDGE ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E-NE FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO A
FAIRLY SHARP CREST AT 14N109W. DRY UPPER AIR WITHIN THE
ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
TROPICS FROM 06-17N BETWEEN 107-127W...EXCEPT FOR A THIN LINE OF
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 02N116W TO 03N120W. DENSE UPPER
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED E ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER
ANTICYCLONE...WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N140W
TO 25N116W TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AT 24N96W WHERE THE
MOISTURE TURNS NE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS DISSIPATING OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC FROM
16N95W TO 03N113W. THIS TROUGH SEPARATES THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALREADY MENTIONED OVER THE NW PORTION FROM ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE S OF 15N E OF 94W
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
10N80W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
ANTICYCLONE IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED.

A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N140W TO NEAR 16N102W.
NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 05N TO
THE W OF 122W...WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN MIXED LONG PERIOD NW AND
NE SWELL AND STILL MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE
SWELL. THIS AFFECTED AREA S OF THE RIDGE WILL SHRINK WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT NE OF THE RIDGE
WILL SPREAD SE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 120-130W WITH
SEAS OF 6-9 FT IN MIXED N AND LONG PERIOD S SWELL. THE SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE BEFORE REACHING THE PACIFIC WATERS ALONG THE BAJA
PENINSULA WITH SEAS OF 4-7 FT EXPECTED TILL EARLY MON. GUIDANCE
SHOWS A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL ARRIVING AT 30N140W LATE SAT AND
REACHING THE NW COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM COMBINED
SEAS OF 6-9 FT ON MON.

$$
NELSON


000
AXNT20 KNHC 171736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP S OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST TONIGHT...INTENSIFY AND MOVE TO NEAR 29N88W BY EARLY FRI.
A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED OVER THE FAR NE GULF WATERS WITHIN 60
IN THE NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER FOR WINDS OF 30-35 KT. FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE ATLANTIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES TO 5N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH 2N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W THE CONTINUES TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3S
BETWEEN 20W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED S OF 3N
BETWEEN 27W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TEXAS IS
ENHANCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND TO THE N OF A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM
THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR NAPLES THROUGH 26N87W TO 25N94W. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS CONFINED TO THE AREA WEST OF 90W. AN INCREASE
IN LIGHTNING STRIKES WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 27.5N91W
TO 25N94W. THIS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD AND RESULT
IN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED TOMORROW. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
60 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW BY 1200 UTC FRI. THIS LOW WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA THROUGH SAT AS THE LOW MOVES NE INTO
THE SW N ATLANTIC. REFER TO SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
GULF A BROAD FLAT RIDGE PREVAILED MAINLY E OF 90W WITH COPIUS AMOUNTS
OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED EASTWARD OVER THE BASIN.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING
FROM 24N91W TO 18N94W. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NE GULF ANCHORED BY
A 1042 MB HIGH OVER MAINE WAS SHIFTING E.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
COLOMBIA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE SW N ATLANTIC. A DOWNSTREAM
UPPER TROUGH CLIPPED THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. FAIR SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM S OF HAITI AND
JAMAICA ALONG 75W...AND ANOTHER CLUSTER EXTENDING FROM MARTINIQUE
TO ANTIGUA AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE HIGHEST
WINDS...15-20 KT FOCUSED IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SAT AND SUN AS A
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GULF AND ACROSS THE SW N ATLANTIC.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POPPING OVER OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS
IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS DAYTIME HEATING IS NEAR A MAXIMUM. THE UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC WILL
SHIFT E THROUGH FRI WHEN NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVING THE
ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FLATTENING MID-UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EXTENDS
INTO THE FAR NW ATLC N OF 27N ALONG 75W IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE AREA FROM 32N72W THROUGH 28N76W TO THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST NEAR PALM BEACH TO NAPLES. ISOLATED AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED WITHIN 90-120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N
WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVER SE FLORIDA IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
THE FRONT WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BY FRI NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FRI MOVES INTO THE FAR NW CORNER
OF THE AREA AND DRAGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH
NEAR 37N52W. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE AZORES THROUGH
32N37W TO 25N55W AND WAS DIGGING SOUTHWARD E OF A NARROW RIDGE AXIS
ALONG 65W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTED A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N19W AND EXTENDS TO 24N28W. A POST-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N31W TO 25N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB


000
AXNT20 KNHC 171736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP S OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST TONIGHT...INTENSIFY AND MOVE TO NEAR 29N88W BY EARLY FRI.
A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED OVER THE FAR NE GULF WATERS WITHIN 60
IN THE NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER FOR WINDS OF 30-35 KT. FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE ATLANTIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES TO 5N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH 2N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W THE CONTINUES TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3S
BETWEEN 20W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED S OF 3N
BETWEEN 27W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TEXAS IS
ENHANCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND TO THE N OF A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM
THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR NAPLES THROUGH 26N87W TO 25N94W. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS CONFINED TO THE AREA WEST OF 90W. AN INCREASE
IN LIGHTNING STRIKES WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 27.5N91W
TO 25N94W. THIS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD AND RESULT
IN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED TOMORROW. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
60 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW BY 1200 UTC FRI. THIS LOW WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA THROUGH SAT AS THE LOW MOVES NE INTO
THE SW N ATLANTIC. REFER TO SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
GULF A BROAD FLAT RIDGE PREVAILED MAINLY E OF 90W WITH COPIUS AMOUNTS
OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED EASTWARD OVER THE BASIN.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING
FROM 24N91W TO 18N94W. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NE GULF ANCHORED BY
A 1042 MB HIGH OVER MAINE WAS SHIFTING E.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
COLOMBIA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE SW N ATLANTIC. A DOWNSTREAM
UPPER TROUGH CLIPPED THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. FAIR SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM S OF HAITI AND
JAMAICA ALONG 75W...AND ANOTHER CLUSTER EXTENDING FROM MARTINIQUE
TO ANTIGUA AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE HIGHEST
WINDS...15-20 KT FOCUSED IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SAT AND SUN AS A
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GULF AND ACROSS THE SW N ATLANTIC.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POPPING OVER OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS
IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS DAYTIME HEATING IS NEAR A MAXIMUM. THE UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC WILL
SHIFT E THROUGH FRI WHEN NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVING THE
ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FLATTENING MID-UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EXTENDS
INTO THE FAR NW ATLC N OF 27N ALONG 75W IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE AREA FROM 32N72W THROUGH 28N76W TO THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST NEAR PALM BEACH TO NAPLES. ISOLATED AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED WITHIN 90-120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N
WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVER SE FLORIDA IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
THE FRONT WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BY FRI NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FRI MOVES INTO THE FAR NW CORNER
OF THE AREA AND DRAGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH
NEAR 37N52W. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE AZORES THROUGH
32N37W TO 25N55W AND WAS DIGGING SOUTHWARD E OF A NARROW RIDGE AXIS
ALONG 65W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTED A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N19W AND EXTENDS TO 24N28W. A POST-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N31W TO 25N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB


000
AXNT20 KNHC 171736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP S OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST TONIGHT...INTENSIFY AND MOVE TO NEAR 29N88W BY EARLY FRI.
A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED OVER THE FAR NE GULF WATERS WITHIN 60
IN THE NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER FOR WINDS OF 30-35 KT. FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE ATLANTIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES TO 5N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH 2N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W THE CONTINUES TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3S
BETWEEN 20W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED S OF 3N
BETWEEN 27W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TEXAS IS
ENHANCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND TO THE N OF A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM
THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR NAPLES THROUGH 26N87W TO 25N94W. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS CONFINED TO THE AREA WEST OF 90W. AN INCREASE
IN LIGHTNING STRIKES WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 27.5N91W
TO 25N94W. THIS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD AND RESULT
IN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED TOMORROW. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
60 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW BY 1200 UTC FRI. THIS LOW WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA THROUGH SAT AS THE LOW MOVES NE INTO
THE SW N ATLANTIC. REFER TO SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
GULF A BROAD FLAT RIDGE PREVAILED MAINLY E OF 90W WITH COPIUS AMOUNTS
OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED EASTWARD OVER THE BASIN.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING
FROM 24N91W TO 18N94W. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NE GULF ANCHORED BY
A 1042 MB HIGH OVER MAINE WAS SHIFTING E.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
COLOMBIA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE SW N ATLANTIC. A DOWNSTREAM
UPPER TROUGH CLIPPED THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. FAIR SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM S OF HAITI AND
JAMAICA ALONG 75W...AND ANOTHER CLUSTER EXTENDING FROM MARTINIQUE
TO ANTIGUA AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE HIGHEST
WINDS...15-20 KT FOCUSED IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SAT AND SUN AS A
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GULF AND ACROSS THE SW N ATLANTIC.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POPPING OVER OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS
IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS DAYTIME HEATING IS NEAR A MAXIMUM. THE UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC WILL
SHIFT E THROUGH FRI WHEN NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVING THE
ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FLATTENING MID-UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EXTENDS
INTO THE FAR NW ATLC N OF 27N ALONG 75W IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE AREA FROM 32N72W THROUGH 28N76W TO THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST NEAR PALM BEACH TO NAPLES. ISOLATED AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED WITHIN 90-120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N
WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVER SE FLORIDA IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
THE FRONT WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BY FRI NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FRI MOVES INTO THE FAR NW CORNER
OF THE AREA AND DRAGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH
NEAR 37N52W. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE AZORES THROUGH
32N37W TO 25N55W AND WAS DIGGING SOUTHWARD E OF A NARROW RIDGE AXIS
ALONG 65W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTED A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N19W AND EXTENDS TO 24N28W. A POST-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N31W TO 25N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB


000
AXNT20 KNHC 171736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP S OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST TONIGHT...INTENSIFY AND MOVE TO NEAR 29N88W BY EARLY FRI.
A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED OVER THE FAR NE GULF WATERS WITHIN 60
IN THE NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER FOR WINDS OF 30-35 KT. FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE ATLANTIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES TO 5N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH 2N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W THE CONTINUES TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3S
BETWEEN 20W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED S OF 3N
BETWEEN 27W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TEXAS IS
ENHANCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND TO THE N OF A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM
THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR NAPLES THROUGH 26N87W TO 25N94W. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS CONFINED TO THE AREA WEST OF 90W. AN INCREASE
IN LIGHTNING STRIKES WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 27.5N91W
TO 25N94W. THIS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD AND RESULT
IN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED TOMORROW. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
60 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW BY 1200 UTC FRI. THIS LOW WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA THROUGH SAT AS THE LOW MOVES NE INTO
THE SW N ATLANTIC. REFER TO SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
GULF A BROAD FLAT RIDGE PREVAILED MAINLY E OF 90W WITH COPIUS AMOUNTS
OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED EASTWARD OVER THE BASIN.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING
FROM 24N91W TO 18N94W. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NE GULF ANCHORED BY
A 1042 MB HIGH OVER MAINE WAS SHIFTING E.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
COLOMBIA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE SW N ATLANTIC. A DOWNSTREAM
UPPER TROUGH CLIPPED THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. FAIR SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM S OF HAITI AND
JAMAICA ALONG 75W...AND ANOTHER CLUSTER EXTENDING FROM MARTINIQUE
TO ANTIGUA AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE HIGHEST
WINDS...15-20 KT FOCUSED IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SAT AND SUN AS A
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GULF AND ACROSS THE SW N ATLANTIC.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POPPING OVER OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS
IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS DAYTIME HEATING IS NEAR A MAXIMUM. THE UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC WILL
SHIFT E THROUGH FRI WHEN NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVING THE
ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FLATTENING MID-UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EXTENDS
INTO THE FAR NW ATLC N OF 27N ALONG 75W IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE AREA FROM 32N72W THROUGH 28N76W TO THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST NEAR PALM BEACH TO NAPLES. ISOLATED AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED WITHIN 90-120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N
WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVER SE FLORIDA IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
THE FRONT WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BY FRI NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FRI MOVES INTO THE FAR NW CORNER
OF THE AREA AND DRAGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH
NEAR 37N52W. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE AZORES THROUGH
32N37W TO 25N55W AND WAS DIGGING SOUTHWARD E OF A NARROW RIDGE AXIS
ALONG 65W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTED A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N19W AND EXTENDS TO 24N28W. A POST-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N31W TO 25N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171528
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU APR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO FRI INTO SAT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT IN TURN WILL ALLOW A BRIEF
GALE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE BASICALLY N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W
WITH SEAS TO 11 FT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW GALE BY SAT
EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM FROM 08N84W TO 06N100W TO 04N120W TO 04N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 83W AND
88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N
BETWEEN 128W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE NW CORNER N OF 24N W OF 120W DRIFTING E. A VERY LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS ELSEWHERE W OF 110W. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N130W TO N BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 32N115W. A 70 TO 90 KT
SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS IS
BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
EXTENDS FROM 17N140W TO N BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 29N114W. A SHARP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BETWEEN 90W AND 110W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS E OF 90W. EXPECT THE NW CORNER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE
E REACHING THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA BY FRIDAY.
THIS WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND ALLOW THE
TRADEWIND FLOW TO RELAX SLIGHTLY TO 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE AREA NEAR
30N143W. SURFACE RIDGING IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. FRESH TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS COVERS
THE AREA BASICALLY FROM 05N TO 18N W OF 127W. ALTIMETER DATA
INDICATES SEAS TO 9 FT IN THIS AREA AS WELL. TRADEWIND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 128W AND 140W.
ELSEWHERE...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
SURFACE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW MEXICO IS PRODUCING
LOCALLY FRESH NW FLOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. 8 FT SWELL ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 119W AND 126W.
MOREOVER...SOME 8 FT SOME CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS OVER
FORECAST WATERS S OF 02N BETWEEN 105W AND 125W. THIS SWELL WILL
LAST FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. MORE SWELL...REMNANTS OF A PREVIOUS
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE
FROM 12N105W TO 12N100W TO 06N98W TO 06N102W TO 12N105W WITH
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS TO 10 FT IN MIXED NE AND S SWELL.
THIS SWELL WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LASTLY... THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO FROM 10N TO 12N W OF 89W PRESENTLY HAS WINDS 20 TO
25 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE TO SUBSIDE BY THIS
EVENING.

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 171037
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES TO 6N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES NEAR 2N20W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-38W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 21W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E CONUS TO OVER THE GULF
SUPPORTING A WARM FRONT THAT AT 17/0900 UTC ENTERS THE GULF OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N81W ALONG 23N86W CLIPPING THE NW
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CONTINUING TO 18N91W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SHIFTING E
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF NW OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A
1042 MB HIGH OVER MAINE. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW INTO
NW MEXICO IS MOVING TOWARD W TEXAS AND DRAWING UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND TEXAS INTO THE FAR W GULF OF MEXICO
GIVING THE AREA W OF 95W SCATTERED SHOWERS. WARM FRONT WILL
DRIFT N THROUGH FRI. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
IN THE NE GULF FRI DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA THROUGH
SAT AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC. THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF A
LINE FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR MARTINIQUE ALONG 16N71W TO
16N81W TO INLAND OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. W
ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADES NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGH
FRI. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SAT AND SUN AS A
WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SW ATLC.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER SW HAITI. THE UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC AND WILL
SHIFT E THROUGH FRI WHEN NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVING THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS INTO THE FAR NW ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION THAT BECOMES STATIONARY
BEFORE ENTERING THE W ATLC AT 17/0900 UTC NEAR 32N71W AND
EXTENDS TO 28N76W WHERE IT BECOMES WARM AS IT CONTINUES ACROSS
THE N BAHAMAS AND OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N81W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45/60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED
BY A 1035 MB HIGH ABOUT 750 NM NE OF BERMUDA. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC TO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N21W AND EXTENDS
TO 27N25W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 23N32W. W ATLC FRONT WILL DRIFT
N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FRI AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170905
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU APR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0815 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N97W TO 05N120W TO BEYOND 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM NORTH OF THE
ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH REACHES FROM 35N128W TO 26N140W
TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD N OF 28N...MOVING ACROSS THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FRI NIGHT.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1026 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED
NEAR 33N140W TO 15N110W. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID TO UPPER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS ENHANCING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...RESULTING IN AN AREA OF SHORT PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL TO
8 FT REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS 28N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

THE PASSAGE OF THE MID TO UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO
ENHANCE A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND AID
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK LOW PRES OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO BY LATE
SATURDAY. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE FRI INTO SAT.

SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...ASCAT SATELLITE DATA OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS FROM 06N TO 20N WEST OF 125W. CONCURRENT ALTIMETER
SATELLITE DATA INDICATED SEAS TO 9 FT...VERIFYING WAVEWATCH III
MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOWING SEAS TO 9 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF
SWELL IN THIS AREA. TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IS INTERACTING WITH
FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT TO SUPPORT AREAS OF MODEST CONVECTION
ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 130W AND 140W.

WEAK UPPER FORCING ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO TO 00N105W WAS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF COSTA RICA BETWEEN
07N TO 10N EAST OF 95W. WEAK SURFACE WINDS HAS ALLOWED THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LARGELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.

AN AREA OF 8 TO 9 FT PERSISTS FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 98W AND
105W IN NE SWELL...THE REMNANTS OF AN EARLIER STORM FORCE GAP
WIND EVENT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC A FEW DAYS AGO. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE WEST SLOWLY AND BUT SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT
BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ANOTHER MID TO UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL AMPLIFY AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THROUGH
GULF OF MEXICO FRI INTO SAT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG
HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT IN TURN WILL
ALLOW A BRIEF SHOT OF GALE FORCE WINDS INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170905
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU APR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0815 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N97W TO 05N120W TO BEYOND 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM NORTH OF THE
ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH REACHES FROM 35N128W TO 26N140W
TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD N OF 28N...MOVING ACROSS THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FRI NIGHT.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1026 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED
NEAR 33N140W TO 15N110W. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID TO UPPER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS ENHANCING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...RESULTING IN AN AREA OF SHORT PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL TO
8 FT REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS 28N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

THE PASSAGE OF THE MID TO UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO
ENHANCE A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND AID
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK LOW PRES OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO BY LATE
SATURDAY. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE FRI INTO SAT.

SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...ASCAT SATELLITE DATA OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS FROM 06N TO 20N WEST OF 125W. CONCURRENT ALTIMETER
SATELLITE DATA INDICATED SEAS TO 9 FT...VERIFYING WAVEWATCH III
MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOWING SEAS TO 9 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF
SWELL IN THIS AREA. TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IS INTERACTING WITH
FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT TO SUPPORT AREAS OF MODEST CONVECTION
ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 130W AND 140W.

WEAK UPPER FORCING ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO TO 00N105W WAS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF COSTA RICA BETWEEN
07N TO 10N EAST OF 95W. WEAK SURFACE WINDS HAS ALLOWED THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LARGELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.

AN AREA OF 8 TO 9 FT PERSISTS FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 98W AND
105W IN NE SWELL...THE REMNANTS OF AN EARLIER STORM FORCE GAP
WIND EVENT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC A FEW DAYS AGO. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE WEST SLOWLY AND BUT SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT
BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ANOTHER MID TO UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL AMPLIFY AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THROUGH
GULF OF MEXICO FRI INTO SAT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG
HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT IN TURN WILL
ALLOW A BRIEF SHOT OF GALE FORCE WINDS INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 170539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA WITH THE ITCZ
BEGINNING AT THE COAST NEAR 10N14W INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG
3N20W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 32W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E CONUS TO OVER THE GULF
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT AT 17/0300 UTC ENTERS THE
GULF THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W TO 23N85W WHERE
IT BEGINS TO BACK UP AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR
21N89W TO NW GUATEMALA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF NW OF THE FRONT
ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH FRI. A SURFACE LOW MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NE GULF FRI PUSHING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA FRI THROUGH SAT AS THE LOW MOVES
EASTWARD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS HAITI INTO THE W ATLC. THE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR SAINT LUCIA ALONG 16N70W TO 17N80W TO
INLAND OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. W ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES
ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY SAT AND SUN AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SW
ATLC WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY AS A RESULT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER SW HAITI AND EXTREME SW
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS
HAITI INTO THE W ATLC AND WILL SHIFT E THROUGH FRI WHEN NEAR
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVING THE
ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS INTO THE FAR NW ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION THEN BECOMES STATIONARY
BEFORE ENTERING THE W ATLC AT 17/0300 UTC NEAR 32N71W AND
EXTENDS ALONG 27N76W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA NEAR 25B80W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45/60 NM OF THE FRONT. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH ABOUT 800 NM NE OF BERMUDA. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC TO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N21W
AND EXTENDS ALONG 26N26W TO 22N38W. W ATLC FRONT WILL DRIFT N AS
A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND NW WATERS THROUGH FRI NIGHT
WHEN THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SE AS A COLD FRONT SAT. SURFACE LOW
MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
MOVE E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUN NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 170539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA WITH THE ITCZ
BEGINNING AT THE COAST NEAR 10N14W INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG
3N20W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 32W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E CONUS TO OVER THE GULF
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT AT 17/0300 UTC ENTERS THE
GULF THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W TO 23N85W WHERE
IT BEGINS TO BACK UP AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR
21N89W TO NW GUATEMALA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF NW OF THE FRONT
ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH FRI. A SURFACE LOW MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NE GULF FRI PUSHING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA FRI THROUGH SAT AS THE LOW MOVES
EASTWARD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS HAITI INTO THE W ATLC. THE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR SAINT LUCIA ALONG 16N70W TO 17N80W TO
INLAND OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. W ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES
ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY SAT AND SUN AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SW
ATLC WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY AS A RESULT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER SW HAITI AND EXTREME SW
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS
HAITI INTO THE W ATLC AND WILL SHIFT E THROUGH FRI WHEN NEAR
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVING THE
ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS INTO THE FAR NW ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION THEN BECOMES STATIONARY
BEFORE ENTERING THE W ATLC AT 17/0300 UTC NEAR 32N71W AND
EXTENDS ALONG 27N76W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA NEAR 25B80W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45/60 NM OF THE FRONT. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH ABOUT 800 NM NE OF BERMUDA. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC TO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N21W
AND EXTENDS ALONG 26N26W TO 22N38W. W ATLC FRONT WILL DRIFT N AS
A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND NW WATERS THROUGH FRI NIGHT
WHEN THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SE AS A COLD FRONT SAT. SURFACE LOW
MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
MOVE E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUN NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170232
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU APR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA
AT 09N83W TO 07N92W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ AXIS...WHICH CONTINUES SW TO 04N111W THEN
WIGGLES WESTWARD ALONG 04N TO BEYOND 140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER AND TO THE S OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
10N85W TO 05N91W TO 05N98W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED JUST S
OF THE ITCZ AXIS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINES FROM 03N106W
TO 04N114W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS NOTED OVER AND
TO THE N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 08N128W TO 06N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 34N133W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SWINGING E ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA TO A BASE OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT 28N114W.
BOTH OF THESE TROUGHS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY UPPER AIR.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR 10N123W WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N TO 33N125W...BUT CURRENTLY BEING
ERODED BY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER TROUGHS E AND W OF THE
RIDGE CREST. THE ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE ITCZ TO THE W OF 114W. DENSE UPPER
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...
WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N140W TO 26N123W TO
25N98W OVER MEXICO...WITH THE PLUME NOW MOVING OVER THE NW GULF
OF MEXICO. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS ADVANCING E ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND CONTINUES
SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO AN
UPPER CYCLONE DISSIPATING OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC NEAR 11N103W
WITH A TROUGH STILL CONTINUING SW TO A BASE AT 02N117W. THIS
TROUGH SEPARATES THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALREADY MENTIONED
OVER THE NW PORTION FROM ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE DISCUSSION
AREA TO THE S OF 14N E OF 97W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE E
OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTED THE
CONVECTION DECAYING ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 106-113W AS
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED.

A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N136W TO NEAR 20N114W.
NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT S OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC WATERS FROM 06-19N BETWEEN 124-140W WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT
IN MIXED LONG PERIOD NW AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELL. THIS
AFFECTED AREA S OF THE RIDGE WILL SHRINK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT FORM NE OF THE RIDGE AND SPREAD
S INTO THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 119-126W ON FRI.

N-NE SWELL FROM TODAYS STORM/GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SW MIXING WITH LONG-
PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL. SEAS WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW
8 FT NEAR 06N105W LATE THU NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5-15 KT ARE
THEN EXPECTED EACH DAY...AND LATE NIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW OF 10-15
KT IS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG A NORTHWARD DRIFTING
WARM FRONT OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE LOWS OUT TO THE NE
IT WILL MOVE THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT E AGAIN AS A COLD
FRONT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO ON FRI EVENING WITH A MINIMAL GALE AROUND SUNRISE
SAT...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SAT.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170232
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU APR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA
AT 09N83W TO 07N92W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ AXIS...WHICH CONTINUES SW TO 04N111W THEN
WIGGLES WESTWARD ALONG 04N TO BEYOND 140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER AND TO THE S OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
10N85W TO 05N91W TO 05N98W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED JUST S
OF THE ITCZ AXIS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINES FROM 03N106W
TO 04N114W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS NOTED OVER AND
TO THE N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 08N128W TO 06N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 34N133W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SWINGING E ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA TO A BASE OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT 28N114W.
BOTH OF THESE TROUGHS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY UPPER AIR.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR 10N123W WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N TO 33N125W...BUT CURRENTLY BEING
ERODED BY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER TROUGHS E AND W OF THE
RIDGE CREST. THE ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE ITCZ TO THE W OF 114W. DENSE UPPER
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...
WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N140W TO 26N123W TO
25N98W OVER MEXICO...WITH THE PLUME NOW MOVING OVER THE NW GULF
OF MEXICO. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS ADVANCING E ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND CONTINUES
SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO AN
UPPER CYCLONE DISSIPATING OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC NEAR 11N103W
WITH A TROUGH STILL CONTINUING SW TO A BASE AT 02N117W. THIS
TROUGH SEPARATES THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALREADY MENTIONED
OVER THE NW PORTION FROM ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE DISCUSSION
AREA TO THE S OF 14N E OF 97W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE E
OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTED THE
CONVECTION DECAYING ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 106-113W AS
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED.

A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N136W TO NEAR 20N114W.
NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT S OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC WATERS FROM 06-19N BETWEEN 124-140W WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT
IN MIXED LONG PERIOD NW AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELL. THIS
AFFECTED AREA S OF THE RIDGE WILL SHRINK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT FORM NE OF THE RIDGE AND SPREAD
S INTO THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 119-126W ON FRI.

N-NE SWELL FROM TODAYS STORM/GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SW MIXING WITH LONG-
PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL. SEAS WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW
8 FT NEAR 06N105W LATE THU NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5-15 KT ARE
THEN EXPECTED EACH DAY...AND LATE NIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW OF 10-15
KT IS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG A NORTHWARD DRIFTING
WARM FRONT OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE LOWS OUT TO THE NE
IT WILL MOVE THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT E AGAIN AS A COLD
FRONT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO ON FRI EVENING WITH A MINIMAL GALE AROUND SUNRISE
SAT...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SAT.

$$
NELSON


000
AXNT20 KNHC 162359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EST WED APR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH
THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 4N20W...TO THE
EQUATOR ALONG 25W...TO 1S28W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 34W...AND
CONTINUING ALONG THE EQUATOR/1N TO 40W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 280 NM TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF 5S28W 1S28W 1S31W 1N34W 2N39W. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 4N50W 4N40W
2N30W 1N22W. NUMEROUS STRONG IN GHANA TO THE SOUTH OF 8N...AND
IN GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 10W AND
13W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THAT HAS BEEN
SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO
25N80W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM
25N80W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO 19N91W STILL
IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE
NORTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 89W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO 28N95W
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO INTERIOR MEXICO NEAR 20N98W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
SITES...KVAF...KGUL...SCATTERED TO BROKEN AT KHQI...KGBK...
KVBS...KEIR...KSPR...KIPN...KMDJ...AND KDLP.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST CORNER OF LOUISIANA...TO THE SOUTH OF THE LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN PUNTA
GORDA AND NAPLES...AND IN THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA. A LOW
CLOUD CEILING COVERS MARATHON IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N81W TO 21N89W. EXPECT WINDS
20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N57W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 17N57W...TO 12N64W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY...TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN
66W AND 80W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W WITH
BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN
73W AND 77W.

...HISPANIOLA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER
BARAHONA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED
IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS COVER
LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER SANTIAGO. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 240 NM TO 300 NM
TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
BAHAMAS/CUBA RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 29N57W 23N57W
17N57W...TO 12N64W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. THIS TROUGH HAS MOVED EASTWARD INTO PHASE WITH THE ALREADY-
EXISTING LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN THAT PART OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 34N29W 24N46W THAT IS
DESCRIBED IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH IS PART OF THE ALREADY-EXISTING
LONGWAVE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 19N TO 25N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 28N BETWEEN 54W AND 64W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N29W TO
32N32W TO 24N46W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N22W TO 28N25W AND 25N31W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO 23N30W TO 18N40W
TO 15N50W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 32W AND 70W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N73W TO 25N80W THEN
STATIONARY TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO
THE WEST OF THE FRONT. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEA HEIGHTS 11 TO 13
FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 38W AND 43W. EXPECT WINDS 20
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE
NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 47W. EXPECT ALSO EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET WITHIN 180 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 31N65W TO 22N54W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 162359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EST WED APR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH
THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 4N20W...TO THE
EQUATOR ALONG 25W...TO 1S28W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 34W...AND
CONTINUING ALONG THE EQUATOR/1N TO 40W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 280 NM TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF 5S28W 1S28W 1S31W 1N34W 2N39W. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 4N50W 4N40W
2N30W 1N22W. NUMEROUS STRONG IN GHANA TO THE SOUTH OF 8N...AND
IN GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 10W AND
13W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THAT HAS BEEN
SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO
25N80W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM
25N80W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO 19N91W STILL
IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE
NORTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 89W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO 28N95W
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO INTERIOR MEXICO NEAR 20N98W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
SITES...KVAF...KGUL...SCATTERED TO BROKEN AT KHQI...KGBK...
KVBS...KEIR...KSPR...KIPN...KMDJ...AND KDLP.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST CORNER OF LOUISIANA...TO THE SOUTH OF THE LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN PUNTA
GORDA AND NAPLES...AND IN THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA. A LOW
CLOUD CEILING COVERS MARATHON IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N81W TO 21N89W. EXPECT WINDS
20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N57W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 17N57W...TO 12N64W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY...TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN
66W AND 80W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W WITH
BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN
73W AND 77W.

...HISPANIOLA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER
BARAHONA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED
IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS COVER
LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER SANTIAGO. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 240 NM TO 300 NM
TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
BAHAMAS/CUBA RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 29N57W 23N57W
17N57W...TO 12N64W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. THIS TROUGH HAS MOVED EASTWARD INTO PHASE WITH THE ALREADY-
EXISTING LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN THAT PART OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 34N29W 24N46W THAT IS
DESCRIBED IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH IS PART OF THE ALREADY-EXISTING
LONGWAVE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 19N TO 25N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 28N BETWEEN 54W AND 64W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N29W TO
32N32W TO 24N46W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N22W TO 28N25W AND 25N31W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO 23N30W TO 18N40W
TO 15N50W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 32W AND 70W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N73W TO 25N80W THEN
STATIONARY TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO
THE WEST OF THE FRONT. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEA HEIGHTS 11 TO 13
FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 38W AND 43W. EXPECT WINDS 20
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE
NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 47W. EXPECT ALSO EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET WITHIN 180 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 31N65W TO 22N54W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162147
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED APR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA
AT 09N83W TO 07N92W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ AXIS...WHICH CONTINUES SW TO 04N111W THEN
WIGGLES WESTWARD ALONG 04N TO BEYOND 140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER
AND TO THE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM 08N82W TO 05N92W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG
THE ITCZ AXIS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINES FROM 06N106W TO
03N112W AND FROM 06N127W TO 07N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE HAS MOVED E OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N135W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SWINGING E ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO A BASE OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AT 30N117W. BOTH OF THESE TROUGHS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY
UPPER AIR.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR 09N121W WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N TO ALONG 31N BETWEEN 120-130W...BUT
CURRENTLY BEING ERODED BY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER
TROUGHS. THE ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE ITCZ TO THE W OF 110W. DENSE UPPER
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...
WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N140W TO 26N123W TO
OVER MEXICO AT 25N102W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SW PERIPHERY
OF THE LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS ADVANCING E ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND CONTINUES
SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO AN
UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC NEAR 12N102W WITH A
TROUGH STILL CONTINUING SW TO A BASE AT 02N113W. THIS TROUGH
SEPARATES THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALREADY MENTIONED OVER THE
NW PORTION FROM ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA TO
THE S OF 17N E OF 96W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 106-112W AS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED.

A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N136W TO NEAR 20N114W.
NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT S OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC WATERS FROM 06-19N BETWEEN 124-140W WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT
IN MIXED LONG PERIOD NW AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELL. THIS
AFFECTED AREA S OF THE RIDGE WILL SHRINK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT FORM NE OF THE RIDGE AND SPREAD
S INTO THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 119-128W ON THU.

NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED WELL BELOW GALE STRENGTH IN AND
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE RESULTANT N-NE SWELL
WILL PROPAGATE SW MIXING WITH LONG-PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL S
SWELL. SEAS WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT NEAR 06N105W LATE
THU NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5-15 KT ARE THEN EXPECTED EACH
DAY...AND LATE NIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW OF 10-15 KT IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ON FRI EVENING WITH A
MINIMAL GALE AROUND SUNRISE SAT...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SAT.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162147
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED APR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA
AT 09N83W TO 07N92W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ AXIS...WHICH CONTINUES SW TO 04N111W THEN
WIGGLES WESTWARD ALONG 04N TO BEYOND 140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER
AND TO THE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM 08N82W TO 05N92W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG
THE ITCZ AXIS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINES FROM 06N106W TO
03N112W AND FROM 06N127W TO 07N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE HAS MOVED E OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N135W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SWINGING E ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO A BASE OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AT 30N117W. BOTH OF THESE TROUGHS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY
UPPER AIR.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR 09N121W WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N TO ALONG 31N BETWEEN 120-130W...BUT
CURRENTLY BEING ERODED BY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER
TROUGHS. THE ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE ITCZ TO THE W OF 110W. DENSE UPPER
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...
WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N140W TO 26N123W TO
OVER MEXICO AT 25N102W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SW PERIPHERY
OF THE LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS ADVANCING E ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND CONTINUES
SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO AN
UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC NEAR 12N102W WITH A
TROUGH STILL CONTINUING SW TO A BASE AT 02N113W. THIS TROUGH
SEPARATES THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALREADY MENTIONED OVER THE
NW PORTION FROM ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA TO
THE S OF 17N E OF 96W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 106-112W AS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED.

A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N136W TO NEAR 20N114W.
NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT S OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC WATERS FROM 06-19N BETWEEN 124-140W WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT
IN MIXED LONG PERIOD NW AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELL. THIS
AFFECTED AREA S OF THE RIDGE WILL SHRINK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT FORM NE OF THE RIDGE AND SPREAD
S INTO THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 119-128W ON THU.

NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED WELL BELOW GALE STRENGTH IN AND
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE RESULTANT N-NE SWELL
WILL PROPAGATE SW MIXING WITH LONG-PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL S
SWELL. SEAS WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT NEAR 06N105W LATE
THU NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5-15 KT ARE THEN EXPECTED EACH
DAY...AND LATE NIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW OF 10-15 KT IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ON FRI EVENING WITH A
MINIMAL GALE AROUND SUNRISE SAT...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SAT.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162147
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED APR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA
AT 09N83W TO 07N92W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ AXIS...WHICH CONTINUES SW TO 04N111W THEN
WIGGLES WESTWARD ALONG 04N TO BEYOND 140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER
AND TO THE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM 08N82W TO 05N92W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG
THE ITCZ AXIS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINES FROM 06N106W TO
03N112W AND FROM 06N127W TO 07N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE HAS MOVED E OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N135W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SWINGING E ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO A BASE OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AT 30N117W. BOTH OF THESE TROUGHS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY
UPPER AIR.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR 09N121W WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N TO ALONG 31N BETWEEN 120-130W...BUT
CURRENTLY BEING ERODED BY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER
TROUGHS. THE ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE ITCZ TO THE W OF 110W. DENSE UPPER
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...
WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N140W TO 26N123W TO
OVER MEXICO AT 25N102W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SW PERIPHERY
OF THE LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS ADVANCING E ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND CONTINUES
SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO AN
UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC NEAR 12N102W WITH A
TROUGH STILL CONTINUING SW TO A BASE AT 02N113W. THIS TROUGH
SEPARATES THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALREADY MENTIONED OVER THE
NW PORTION FROM ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA TO
THE S OF 17N E OF 96W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 106-112W AS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED.

A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N136W TO NEAR 20N114W.
NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT S OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC WATERS FROM 06-19N BETWEEN 124-140W WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT
IN MIXED LONG PERIOD NW AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELL. THIS
AFFECTED AREA S OF THE RIDGE WILL SHRINK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT FORM NE OF THE RIDGE AND SPREAD
S INTO THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 119-128W ON THU.

NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED WELL BELOW GALE STRENGTH IN AND
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE RESULTANT N-NE SWELL
WILL PROPAGATE SW MIXING WITH LONG-PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL S
SWELL. SEAS WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT NEAR 06N105W LATE
THU NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5-15 KT ARE THEN EXPECTED EACH
DAY...AND LATE NIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW OF 10-15 KT IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ON FRI EVENING WITH A
MINIMAL GALE AROUND SUNRISE SAT...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SAT.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162147
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED APR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA
AT 09N83W TO 07N92W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ AXIS...WHICH CONTINUES SW TO 04N111W THEN
WIGGLES WESTWARD ALONG 04N TO BEYOND 140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER
AND TO THE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM 08N82W TO 05N92W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG
THE ITCZ AXIS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINES FROM 06N106W TO
03N112W AND FROM 06N127W TO 07N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE HAS MOVED E OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N135W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SWINGING E ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO A BASE OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AT 30N117W. BOTH OF THESE TROUGHS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY
UPPER AIR.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR 09N121W WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N TO ALONG 31N BETWEEN 120-130W...BUT
CURRENTLY BEING ERODED BY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER
TROUGHS. THE ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE ITCZ TO THE W OF 110W. DENSE UPPER
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...
WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N140W TO 26N123W TO
OVER MEXICO AT 25N102W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SW PERIPHERY
OF THE LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS ADVANCING E ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND CONTINUES
SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO AN
UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC NEAR 12N102W WITH A
TROUGH STILL CONTINUING SW TO A BASE AT 02N113W. THIS TROUGH
SEPARATES THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALREADY MENTIONED OVER THE
NW PORTION FROM ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA TO
THE S OF 17N E OF 96W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 106-112W AS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED.

A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N136W TO NEAR 20N114W.
NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT S OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC WATERS FROM 06-19N BETWEEN 124-140W WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT
IN MIXED LONG PERIOD NW AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELL. THIS
AFFECTED AREA S OF THE RIDGE WILL SHRINK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT FORM NE OF THE RIDGE AND SPREAD
S INTO THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 119-128W ON THU.

NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED WELL BELOW GALE STRENGTH IN AND
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE RESULTANT N-NE SWELL
WILL PROPAGATE SW MIXING WITH LONG-PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL S
SWELL. SEAS WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT NEAR 06N105W LATE
THU NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5-15 KT ARE THEN EXPECTED EACH
DAY...AND LATE NIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW OF 10-15 KT IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ON FRI EVENING WITH A
MINIMAL GALE AROUND SUNRISE SAT...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SAT.

$$
NELSON


000
AXNT20 KNHC 161734
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR
27W TO 1N40W TO THE EQUATOR AT 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 40W-46W

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE W GULF OF
MEXICO FROM EASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THEN
STATIONARY THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN
AND STALL FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN DRIFT N AS A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE FLOW ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. A STATIONARY
FRONT IS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT.  THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS...20-25 KT...CONTINUE ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. SMOKE WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THE
GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER SW HAITI. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE FAR NW ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N73W TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N68W
TO HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N33W TO 20N58W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N-26N BETWEEN 49W-61W. A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. THE COLD
FRONT WILL STALL TONIGHT THEN WILL DRIFT N AS A WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND NW PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 161734
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR
27W TO 1N40W TO THE EQUATOR AT 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 40W-46W

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE W GULF OF
MEXICO FROM EASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THEN
STATIONARY THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN
AND STALL FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN DRIFT N AS A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE FLOW ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. A STATIONARY
FRONT IS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT.  THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS...20-25 KT...CONTINUE ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. SMOKE WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THE
GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER SW HAITI. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE FAR NW ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N73W TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N68W
TO HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N33W TO 20N58W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N-26N BETWEEN 49W-61W. A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. THE COLD
FRONT WILL STALL TONIGHT THEN WILL DRIFT N AS A WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND NW PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161514
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED APR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO SURGE WINDS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TO BELOW GALE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RESULTANT N-NE SWELL WILL
PROPAGATE SW MIXING WITH LONG-PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL.
SEAS WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT NEAR 06N105W FRI. SOUTHERLY
WINDS AT 5-15 KT ARE THEN EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH MON OVER THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WHILE LATE NIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW OF 10-20 KT
ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 06N90W TO 03N105W TO 05N125W TO
03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 89W AND 92W...AND FROM 05N
TO 08N BETWEEN 127W AND 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE NW CORNER DRIFTING E. A VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ELSEWHERE W OF 110W. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 0N128W TO N BAJA
CALIFORNIA AT 31N115W. A 70 TO 90 KT SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM WITH
BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM 20N140W TO N BAJA
CALIFORNIA AT 31N115W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BETWEEN 95W
AND 110W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF 95W. EXPECT THE NW
CORNER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE E REACHING THE COAST OF THE
NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN
THE SURFACE RIDGE AND ALLOW THE TRADEWIND FLOW TO RELAX SLIGHTLY
TO 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR
37N136W. SURFACE RIDGING IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. FRESH TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS COVERS
THE AREA FROM 07N TO 19N W OF 125W. ALTIMETER DATA INDICATES
SEAS TO 9 FT IN THIS AREA AS WELL. TRADE WINDS CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN
127W AND 132W. ELSEWHERE...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW MEXICO IS
PRODUCING LOCALLY FRESH NW FLOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA. 9 FT SWELL ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN 120W AND 127W.
LASTLY...SOME 8 FT MIXED NW AND SW SWELL ARE S OF 00N W OF 105W.
THIS SWELL WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161514
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED APR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO SURGE WINDS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TO BELOW GALE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RESULTANT N-NE SWELL WILL
PROPAGATE SW MIXING WITH LONG-PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL.
SEAS WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT NEAR 06N105W FRI. SOUTHERLY
WINDS AT 5-15 KT ARE THEN EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH MON OVER THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WHILE LATE NIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW OF 10-20 KT
ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 06N90W TO 03N105W TO 05N125W TO
03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 89W AND 92W...AND FROM 05N
TO 08N BETWEEN 127W AND 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE NW CORNER DRIFTING E. A VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ELSEWHERE W OF 110W. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 0N128W TO N BAJA
CALIFORNIA AT 31N115W. A 70 TO 90 KT SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM WITH
BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM 20N140W TO N BAJA
CALIFORNIA AT 31N115W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BETWEEN 95W
AND 110W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF 95W. EXPECT THE NW
CORNER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE E REACHING THE COAST OF THE
NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN
THE SURFACE RIDGE AND ALLOW THE TRADEWIND FLOW TO RELAX SLIGHTLY
TO 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR
37N136W. SURFACE RIDGING IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. FRESH TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS COVERS
THE AREA FROM 07N TO 19N W OF 125W. ALTIMETER DATA INDICATES
SEAS TO 9 FT IN THIS AREA AS WELL. TRADE WINDS CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN
127W AND 132W. ELSEWHERE...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW MEXICO IS
PRODUCING LOCALLY FRESH NW FLOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA. 9 FT SWELL ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN 120W AND 127W.
LASTLY...SOME 8 FT MIXED NW AND SW SWELL ARE S OF 00N W OF 105W.
THIS SWELL WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 161040
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 13N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N17W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N24W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N
BETWEEN 22W-28W WITH CLUSTERS FROM 3N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 33W-
45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E CONUS INTO THE W GULF OF
MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 16/0900 UTC ENTERS THE
GULF FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN MIAMI AND KEY WEST
TO 24N84W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN
NEAR 21N88W TO NW GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E
OF THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM W
OF THE ENTIRE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH
OVER OHIO. COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND STALL FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL
THEN DRIFT N AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH FRI THEN PUSH
EASTWARD THROUGH FLORIDA AS A COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 20N86W ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO INLAND NEAR
15N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE
S OF 20N. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 71W-80W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HAITI
AND JAMAICA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. SMOKE WILL PERSIST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER SW HAITI. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE THE ISLAND ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY
INCREASING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS INTO THE FAR NW ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 16/0900 UTC
NEAR 32N75W AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA
NEAR MIAMI. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
45/60 NM E OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS
AND CAICOS OVER THE W ATLC BETWEEN 63W-78W. AN UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N63W TO JUST N
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 19N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
21N-27N BETWEEN 54W-59W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH NE OF BERMUDA.
COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM 31N72W TO CAY SAL BANK TONIGHT THEN
WILL DRIFT N AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND NW WATERS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 161040
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 13N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N17W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N24W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N
BETWEEN 22W-28W WITH CLUSTERS FROM 3N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 33W-
45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E CONUS INTO THE W GULF OF
MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 16/0900 UTC ENTERS THE
GULF FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN MIAMI AND KEY WEST
TO 24N84W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN
NEAR 21N88W TO NW GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E
OF THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM W
OF THE ENTIRE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH
OVER OHIO. COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND STALL FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL
THEN DRIFT N AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH FRI THEN PUSH
EASTWARD THROUGH FLORIDA AS A COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 20N86W ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO INLAND NEAR
15N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE
S OF 20N. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 71W-80W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HAITI
AND JAMAICA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. SMOKE WILL PERSIST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER SW HAITI. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE THE ISLAND ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY
INCREASING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS INTO THE FAR NW ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 16/0900 UTC
NEAR 32N75W AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA
NEAR MIAMI. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
45/60 NM E OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS
AND CAICOS OVER THE W ATLC BETWEEN 63W-78W. AN UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N63W TO JUST N
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 19N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
21N-27N BETWEEN 54W-59W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH NE OF BERMUDA.
COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM 31N72W TO CAY SAL BANK TONIGHT THEN
WILL DRIFT N AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND NW WATERS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160911
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED APR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0815 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO SURGE THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT MINIMAL STORM FORCE...BUT WILL SUBSIDE TO
GALE FORCE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH WINDS BELOW GALE BY AFTERNOON.
THE RESULTANT N-NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SW MIXING WITH LONG-
PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL. SEAS WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT NEAR 06N105W LATE THU NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5-15 KT ARE
THEN EXPECTED EACH DAY...AND LATE NIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW OF 10-20
KT IS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 10N88W TO
04N98W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 03N107W
TO 05N125W TO 05N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 90W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO 00N110W IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG
THE ITCZ BEWTEEN 80W AND 90W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N140W TO SOUTH OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA NEAR 17N110W. SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM
AROUND 0430 UTC INDICATE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW FLOW ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
1004 MB LOW PRES OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.

SIMILARLY STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED FARTHER
NORTH ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WITH FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE THESE WINDS WILL NOT
REACH SOUTH OF 30N...SWELL TO 9 FT GENERATED BY THESE WINDS WILL
PROPAGATE SOUTH OF 30N THROUGH THU REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS 28N
BETWEEN 118W AND 125W.

ASCAT SATELLITE DATA FROM AROUND 06 UTC INDICATED FRESH TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS COVERING
THE AREA FROM 07N TO 20N W OF 125W. ALTIMETER DATA INDICATED
SEAS TO 9 FT IN THIS AREA AS WELL. TRADE WINDS CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN
125W AND 130W.

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO JUST
EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII NEAR 20N150W WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD N OF 20N...REACHING THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THE SURFACE
RIDGE AND ALLOW THE TRADE WIND FLOW TO RELAX SLIGHTLY TO 15 TO
20 KT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 160545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE S GULF S OF 22N
BETWEEN 92W-96W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE
GULF. THESE GALE WINDS WILL BE DISCONTINUE BY 16/0600 UTC.
PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES TO 6N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N22W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 14W-
19W AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 22W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE E CONUS
AND THE W GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 16/0300
UTC ENTERS THE GULF FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN
MELBOURNE AND FORT MYERS THEN ALONG 24N84W TO THE N COAST OF THE
YUCATAN NEAR 21N89W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INLAND TO
17N92W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER FLORIDA
NEAR WEST PALM BEACH ACROSS THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS TO 24N81W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 24N TO OVER
CUBA E OF 83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT
N OF 22N. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE GULF IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH OVER NW MISSISSIPPI.
COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN RETURN N
THROUGH THE E AND CENTRAL GULF AS A WARM FRONT LATE WED THROUGH
FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT.
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 20N87W ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO INLAND NEAR 15N87W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CUBA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST LINES. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N BETWEEN 76W-83W. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
SMOKE WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS
TONIGHT. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S HAITI/SW DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC S OF 19N W OF 70W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
AGAIN WED NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE THE
ISLAND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH WED THEN INCREASING SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS INTO THE FAR NW ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 16/0300 UTC
NEAR 32N78W AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA
NEAR MELBOURNE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N77W OVER
FLORIDA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH CONTINUING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 28N.
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS OVER THE W
ATLC BETWEEN 63W-80W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N66W TO 22N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
22N-28N BETWEEN 54W-60W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NE OF BERMUDA.
COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM 31N72W TO CAY SAL BANK WED NIGHT THEN
WILL RETURN N ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THU NIGHT AND MOVE INTO
NW WATERS BY FRI NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 160545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE S GULF S OF 22N
BETWEEN 92W-96W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE
GULF. THESE GALE WINDS WILL BE DISCONTINUE BY 16/0600 UTC.
PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES TO 6N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N22W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 14W-
19W AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 22W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE E CONUS
AND THE W GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 16/0300
UTC ENTERS THE GULF FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN
MELBOURNE AND FORT MYERS THEN ALONG 24N84W TO THE N COAST OF THE
YUCATAN NEAR 21N89W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INLAND TO
17N92W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER FLORIDA
NEAR WEST PALM BEACH ACROSS THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS TO 24N81W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 24N TO OVER
CUBA E OF 83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT
N OF 22N. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE GULF IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH OVER NW MISSISSIPPI.
COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN RETURN N
THROUGH THE E AND CENTRAL GULF AS A WARM FRONT LATE WED THROUGH
FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT.
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 20N87W ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO INLAND NEAR 15N87W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CUBA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST LINES. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N BETWEEN 76W-83W. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
SMOKE WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS
TONIGHT. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S HAITI/SW DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC S OF 19N W OF 70W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
AGAIN WED NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE THE
ISLAND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH WED THEN INCREASING SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS INTO THE FAR NW ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 16/0300 UTC
NEAR 32N78W AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA
NEAR MELBOURNE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N77W OVER
FLORIDA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH CONTINUING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 28N.
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS OVER THE W
ATLC BETWEEN 63W-80W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N66W TO 22N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
22N-28N BETWEEN 54W-60W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NE OF BERMUDA.
COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM 31N72W TO CAY SAL BANK WED NIGHT THEN
WILL RETURN N ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THU NIGHT AND MOVE INTO
NW WATERS BY FRI NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160235
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED APR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY SURGING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT MINIMAL STORM FORCE...AND EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT WED MORNING WITH WINDS BELOW GALE ON WED
AFTERNOON. THE RESULTANT N-NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SW MIXING
WITH LONG-PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL. SEAS WILL FINALLY
SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT NEAR 06N105W LATE THU NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AT 5-15 KT ARE THEN EXPECTED EACH DAY...AND LATE NIGHT DRAINAGE
FLOW OF 10-20 KT IS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ACROSS SOUTHERN E PANAMA TO
ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA CONTINUING W ACROSS SOUTHERN W PANAMA
TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N77W TO 08N812W TO 05N99W
WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ
AXIS...WHICH IN TURN WIGGLES WESTWARD BETWEEN 04-05N TO BEYOND
140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 08N80W TO 05N96W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER...AND
TO THE N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
07N120W TO 06N133W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 10N120W WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N TO BEYOND 34N127W. THE ENVELOPE OF
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE ITCZ TO
THE W OF 112W. DENSE UPPER MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...WITHIN 360 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N140W
TO 28N116W...THEN SPILLS SE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS ADVANCING E ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND CONTINUES
SW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL MEXICO INTO AN
UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 12N105W WITH A TROUGH STILL
CONTINUING SW TO A BASE AT 02N114W. THIS TROUGH SEPARATES THE
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALREADY MENTIONED OVER THE NW PORTION
FROM ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE S OF 17N
E OF 96W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING THE
CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED.

A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N138W TO NEAR 19N114W.
NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT S OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC WATERS FROM 06-19N BETWEEN 122-140W WITH SEAS OF 7-10 FT
IN MIXED LONG PERIOD NW AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELL. THIS
AFFECTED AREA S OF THE RIDGE WILL SHRINK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT FORM NE OF THE RIDGE AND SPREAD
S INTO THE AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 118-127W ON THU.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160235
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED APR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY SURGING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT MINIMAL STORM FORCE...AND EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT WED MORNING WITH WINDS BELOW GALE ON WED
AFTERNOON. THE RESULTANT N-NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SW MIXING
WITH LONG-PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL. SEAS WILL FINALLY
SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT NEAR 06N105W LATE THU NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AT 5-15 KT ARE THEN EXPECTED EACH DAY...AND LATE NIGHT DRAINAGE
FLOW OF 10-20 KT IS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ACROSS SOUTHERN E PANAMA TO
ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA CONTINUING W ACROSS SOUTHERN W PANAMA
TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N77W TO 08N812W TO 05N99W
WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ
AXIS...WHICH IN TURN WIGGLES WESTWARD BETWEEN 04-05N TO BEYOND
140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 08N80W TO 05N96W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER...AND
TO THE N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
07N120W TO 06N133W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 10N120W WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N TO BEYOND 34N127W. THE ENVELOPE OF
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE ITCZ TO
THE W OF 112W. DENSE UPPER MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...WITHIN 360 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N140W
TO 28N116W...THEN SPILLS SE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS ADVANCING E ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND CONTINUES
SW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL MEXICO INTO AN
UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 12N105W WITH A TROUGH STILL
CONTINUING SW TO A BASE AT 02N114W. THIS TROUGH SEPARATES THE
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALREADY MENTIONED OVER THE NW PORTION
FROM ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE S OF 17N
E OF 96W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING THE
CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED.

A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N138W TO NEAR 19N114W.
NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT S OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC WATERS FROM 06-19N BETWEEN 122-140W WITH SEAS OF 7-10 FT
IN MIXED LONG PERIOD NW AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELL. THIS
AFFECTED AREA S OF THE RIDGE WILL SHRINK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT FORM NE OF THE RIDGE AND SPREAD
S INTO THE AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 118-127W ON THU.

$$
NELSON



000
AXNT20 KNHC 160024
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EST TUE APR 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GULF OF MEXICO STORM WARNING...

COLD FRONT IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 29N83W TO 25N87W TO
18N93W. A STORM WARNING IS FOR THE SW GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE
FRONT S OF 21N W OF 95W WITH NW TO N WINDS 40 TO 50 KT AND SEAS
12 TO 20 FT. A GALE WARNING IS ELSEWHERE S OF 25N W OF 90W WITH
NW TO N WINDS 30 TO 35 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 15 FT IN NW TO N SWELL.
REMAINDER OF AREA W OF FRONT HAS NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT AND
SEAS 8 TO 13 FT IN NW TO N SWELL. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR
10N14W TO 6N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N16W TO EQ26W TO 1S34W
TO 1S40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 78W-92W...AND FROM 4N-8N
BETWEEN 120W-135W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AREAS OF GALE AND
STORM. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N TO
INCLUDE OVER FLORIDA. A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS MAINTAINING A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS E OF THE COLD FRONT ARE FROM THE
SOUTH AT 15 KT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT TO
RETROGRAGE BACK NORTH TO THE CENTRAL GULF AS A WARM FRONT WITH
CONVECTION.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE
ISLAND OF COZUMEL TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR THE ISLAND OF
ROATAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. 10 TO
20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE ENTIRE N COAST OF CUBA. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 81W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA N OF 8N BETWEEN 72W-76W.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. MORE
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...INLAND OVER CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA...AND INLAND OVER JAMAICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
BROAD RIDGE WITH SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC N OF 26N
BETWEEN 77W-80W DUE TO PRE FRONTAL ACTIVITY. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N64W TO 23N65W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WELL E OF THE TROUGH MOSTLY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW. A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
39N50W PRODUCING BROAD RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF 20N. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N60W.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE NW ATLANTIC FROM 30N73W
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 160024
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EST TUE APR 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GULF OF MEXICO STORM WARNING...

COLD FRONT IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 29N83W TO 25N87W TO
18N93W. A STORM WARNING IS FOR THE SW GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE
FRONT S OF 21N W OF 95W WITH NW TO N WINDS 40 TO 50 KT AND SEAS
12 TO 20 FT. A GALE WARNING IS ELSEWHERE S OF 25N W OF 90W WITH
NW TO N WINDS 30 TO 35 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 15 FT IN NW TO N SWELL.
REMAINDER OF AREA W OF FRONT HAS NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT AND
SEAS 8 TO 13 FT IN NW TO N SWELL. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR
10N14W TO 6N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N16W TO EQ26W TO 1S34W
TO 1S40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 78W-92W...AND FROM 4N-8N
BETWEEN 120W-135W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AREAS OF GALE AND
STORM. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N TO
INCLUDE OVER FLORIDA. A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS MAINTAINING A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS E OF THE COLD FRONT ARE FROM THE
SOUTH AT 15 KT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT TO
RETROGRAGE BACK NORTH TO THE CENTRAL GULF AS A WARM FRONT WITH
CONVECTION.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE
ISLAND OF COZUMEL TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR THE ISLAND OF
ROATAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. 10 TO
20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE ENTIRE N COAST OF CUBA. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 81W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA N OF 8N BETWEEN 72W-76W.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. MORE
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...INLAND OVER CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA...AND INLAND OVER JAMAICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
BROAD RIDGE WITH SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC N OF 26N
BETWEEN 77W-80W DUE TO PRE FRONTAL ACTIVITY. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N64W TO 23N65W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WELL E OF THE TROUGH MOSTLY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW. A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
39N50W PRODUCING BROAD RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF 20N. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N60W.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE NW ATLANTIC FROM 30N73W
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 160004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EST TUE APR 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GULF OF MEXICO STORM WARNING...

COLD FRONT IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 29N83W TO 25N87W TO
18N93W. A STORM WARNING IS FOR THE SW GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE
FRONT S OF 21N W OF 95W WITH NW TO N WINDS 40 TO 50 KT AND SEAS
12 TO 20 FT. A GALE WARNING IS ELSEWHERE S OF 25N W OF 90W WITH
NW TO N WINDS 30 TO 35 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 15 FT IN NW TO N SWELL.
REMAINDER OF AREA W OF FRONT HAS NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT AND
SEAS 8 TO 13 FT IN NW TO N SWELL. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR
10N14W TO 6N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N16W TO EQ26W TO 1S34W
TO 1S40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 78W-92W...AND FROM 4N-8N
BETWEEN 120W-135W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AREAS OF GALE AND
STORM. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N TO
INCLUDE OVER FLORIDA. A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS MAINTAINING A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS E OF THE COLD FRONT ARE FROM THE
SOUTH AT 15 KT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT TO
RETROGRAGE BACK NORTH TO THE CENTRAL GULF AS A WARM FRONT WITH
CONVECTION.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE
ISLAND OF COZUMEL TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR THE ISLAND OF
ROATAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. 10 TO
20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE ENTIRE N COAST OF CUBA. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 81W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA N OF 8N BETWEEN 72W-76W.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. MORE
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...INLAND OVER CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA...AND INLAND OVER JAMAICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
BROAD RIDGE WITH SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N64W TO
23N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WELL E OF THE TROUGH MOSTLY DUE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 39N50W PRODUCING BROAD RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC N
OF 20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 26N60W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE NW ATLANTIC IN
24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 160004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EST TUE APR 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GULF OF MEXICO STORM WARNING...

COLD FRONT IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 29N83W TO 25N87W TO
18N93W. A STORM WARNING IS FOR THE SW GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE
FRONT S OF 21N W OF 95W WITH NW TO N WINDS 40 TO 50 KT AND SEAS
12 TO 20 FT. A GALE WARNING IS ELSEWHERE S OF 25N W OF 90W WITH
NW TO N WINDS 30 TO 35 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 15 FT IN NW TO N SWELL.
REMAINDER OF AREA W OF FRONT HAS NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT AND
SEAS 8 TO 13 FT IN NW TO N SWELL. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR
10N14W TO 6N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N16W TO EQ26W TO 1S34W
TO 1S40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 78W-92W...AND FROM 4N-8N
BETWEEN 120W-135W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AREAS OF GALE AND
STORM. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N TO
INCLUDE OVER FLORIDA. A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS MAINTAINING A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS E OF THE COLD FRONT ARE FROM THE
SOUTH AT 15 KT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT TO
RETROGRAGE BACK NORTH TO THE CENTRAL GULF AS A WARM FRONT WITH
CONVECTION.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE
ISLAND OF COZUMEL TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR THE ISLAND OF
ROATAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. 10 TO
20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE ENTIRE N COAST OF CUBA. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 81W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA N OF 8N BETWEEN 72W-76W.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. MORE
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...INLAND OVER CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA...AND INLAND OVER JAMAICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
BROAD RIDGE WITH SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N64W TO
23N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WELL E OF THE TROUGH MOSTLY DUE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 39N50W PRODUCING BROAD RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC N
OF 20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 26N60W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE NW ATLANTIC IN
24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152149
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE APR 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY SURGING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT GALE FORCE...AND EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
BUILD TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE THIS EVENING...AND PERSIST NEAR
STORM STRENGTH THROUGH SUNRISE ON WED. GALE CONDITIONS WILL THEN
QUICKLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT WED MORNING WITH WINDS BELOW GALE ON
WED AFTERNOON. THE RESULTANT N-NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SW MIXING
WITH LONG-PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL. SEAS WILL FINALLY
SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT NEAR 06N105W LATE THU NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AT 5-15 KT ARE THEN EXPECTED EACH DAY...AND LATE NIGHT DRAINAGE
FLOW OF 10-20 KT IS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF
COSTA RICA AT 08N83W TO 04N97W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ AXIS...WHICH IN TURN WIGGLES
WESTWARD BETWEEN 04-05N TO BEYOND 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG AND TO THE S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N78W
TO 08N85W TO 04N96W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER...AND TO
THE N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
08N120W TO 06N134W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 10N120W WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N TO BEYOND 34N123W. THE ENVELOPE OF
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE ITCZ TO
THE W OF 113W. DENSE UPPER MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...WITHIN 360 NM OF A LINE FROM 14N140W
TO 27N120W. WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS ADVANCING E ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND CONTINUES
SW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL MEXICO INTO AN UPPER
CYCLONE OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 11N105W WITH A TROUGH STILL
CONTINUING SW TO A BASE AT 02N114W. THIS TROUGH SEPARATES THE
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALREADY MENTIONED OVER THE NW PORTION
FROM ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE S OF 17N
E OF 96W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING THE
CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED.

A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N138W TO NEAR 19N114W.
NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT S OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC WATERS FROM 06-17N BETWEEN 122-140W WITH SEAS OF 7-10 FT
IN MIXED LONG PERIOD NW AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELL. THIS
AFFECTED AREA S OF THE RIDGE WILL SHRINK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT FORM NE OF THE RIDGE AND SPREAD
S INTO THE AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 118-127W ON THU.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152149
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE APR 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY SURGING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT GALE FORCE...AND EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
BUILD TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE THIS EVENING...AND PERSIST NEAR
STORM STRENGTH THROUGH SUNRISE ON WED. GALE CONDITIONS WILL THEN
QUICKLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT WED MORNING WITH WINDS BELOW GALE ON
WED AFTERNOON. THE RESULTANT N-NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SW MIXING
WITH LONG-PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL. SEAS WILL FINALLY
SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT NEAR 06N105W LATE THU NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AT 5-15 KT ARE THEN EXPECTED EACH DAY...AND LATE NIGHT DRAINAGE
FLOW OF 10-20 KT IS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF
COSTA RICA AT 08N83W TO 04N97W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ AXIS...WHICH IN TURN WIGGLES
WESTWARD BETWEEN 04-05N TO BEYOND 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG AND TO THE S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N78W
TO 08N85W TO 04N96W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER...AND TO
THE N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
08N120W TO 06N134W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 10N120W WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N TO BEYOND 34N123W. THE ENVELOPE OF
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE ITCZ TO
THE W OF 113W. DENSE UPPER MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...WITHIN 360 NM OF A LINE FROM 14N140W
TO 27N120W. WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS ADVANCING E ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND CONTINUES
SW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL MEXICO INTO AN UPPER
CYCLONE OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 11N105W WITH A TROUGH STILL
CONTINUING SW TO A BASE AT 02N114W. THIS TROUGH SEPARATES THE
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALREADY MENTIONED OVER THE NW PORTION
FROM ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE S OF 17N
E OF 96W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING THE
CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED.

A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N138W TO NEAR 19N114W.
NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT S OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC WATERS FROM 06-17N BETWEEN 122-140W WITH SEAS OF 7-10 FT
IN MIXED LONG PERIOD NW AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELL. THIS
AFFECTED AREA S OF THE RIDGE WILL SHRINK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT FORM NE OF THE RIDGE AND SPREAD
S INTO THE AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 118-127W ON THU.

$$
NELSON


000
AXNT20 KNHC 151758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EST TUE APR 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GULF OF MEXICO STORM WARNING...

A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 30N86W 18N94W. EXPECT STORM-FORCE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 13 TO 20 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 95W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTH WINDS
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO 25N TO THE WEST OF 93W.
SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET...EXCEPT 12 TO 18 FEET TO THE NORTH OF
22N. EXPECT ALSO NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET...EXCEPT 10 TO 15 FEET TO THE WEST OF
93W...IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT. GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO THE SOUTH OF
21N TO THE WEST OF 93W IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 9N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N15W TO 4N20W.
THE ITCZ IS BROKEN UP BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 21W/22W
FROM 5N SOUTHWARD. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W
TO 1S33W AND 1S41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 300 NM TO 500 NM TO
THE SOUTH OF 2N27W 3N40W 3N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH
OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A...INCLUDING REACHING
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF GEORGIA...THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N90W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO
THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N96W...CURVING TO 21N101W IN MEXICO. THE
FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY IN MEXICO FROM 21N101W TO 26N101W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN FLORIDA FROM 28N
TO 30N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 26N
TO 28N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 28N83W 22N88W. CLEARING SKIES
ARE BETWEEN 91W AND 97W IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA...ABOUT 90 NM OFFSHORE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN BUILDING FROM TEXAS INTO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS OR SO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUFFICIENTLY GREAT ENOUGH
IN ORDER FOR GALE-FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO...DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE
PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. STORM-
FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
SITES...KHQI...KGBK...KEIR...KSPR...KATP...KIPN...KMDJ...
AND KDLP.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS CONTINUE FROM MISSISSIPPI TO
ALABAMA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN FLORIDA FROM THE APALACHICOLA-
TO-MARIANNA LINE WESTWARD. IT IS RAINING IN TALLAHASSEE. LOW
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE COVERING PERRY FLORIDA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD
CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER FLORIDA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA
METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING CITIES. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
PRESENT FROM SARASOTA TO NAPLES.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N61W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 26N61W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
20N60W...AND TO 15N66W IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N67W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 25N72W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
18N86W.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY...TO THE EAST OF 70W...TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LINE 16N70W 16N77W 20N81W 21N84W...AND TO THE
SOUTH OF 15N...IN SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W...FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS OR SO. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS...EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF
18N TO THE WEST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED
EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA OF HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA NOW.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...A
LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN
BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A CARIBBEAN
SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA...RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS/CUBA RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N61W...TO A
26N61W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N60W AND 15N66W IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
30N62W 26N64W 23N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N TO 30N BETWEEN 53W AND 62W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH
OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 50W. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 32N. BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 28N
TO THE EAST OF 40W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 33N30W TO
32N32W...TO 31N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 50W. BROAD SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE
EAST OF 40W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 33N30W TO 32N32W...TO
31N41W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 28N45W 25N34W...
TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO
25N72W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N86W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM
31N63W TO 24N55W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST HAS TO DO WITH THE 6-
HOUR FORECAST...THAT CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT TO BE TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W. A
THIRD AREA OF INTEREST HAS TO DO WITH THE 12-HOUR FORECAST THAT
CONSISTS OF...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET TO
THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 151758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EST TUE APR 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GULF OF MEXICO STORM WARNING...

A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 30N86W 18N94W. EXPECT STORM-FORCE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 13 TO 20 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 95W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTH WINDS
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO 25N TO THE WEST OF 93W.
SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET...EXCEPT 12 TO 18 FEET TO THE NORTH OF
22N. EXPECT ALSO NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET...EXCEPT 10 TO 15 FEET TO THE WEST OF
93W...IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT. GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO THE SOUTH OF
21N TO THE WEST OF 93W IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 9N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N15W TO 4N20W.
THE ITCZ IS BROKEN UP BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 21W/22W
FROM 5N SOUTHWARD. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W
TO 1S33W AND 1S41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 300 NM TO 500 NM TO
THE SOUTH OF 2N27W 3N40W 3N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH
OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A...INCLUDING REACHING
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF GEORGIA...THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N90W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO
THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N96W...CURVING TO 21N101W IN MEXICO. THE
FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY IN MEXICO FROM 21N101W TO 26N101W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN FLORIDA FROM 28N
TO 30N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 26N
TO 28N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 28N83W 22N88W. CLEARING SKIES
ARE BETWEEN 91W AND 97W IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA...ABOUT 90 NM OFFSHORE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN BUILDING FROM TEXAS INTO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS OR SO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUFFICIENTLY GREAT ENOUGH
IN ORDER FOR GALE-FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO...DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE
PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. STORM-
FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
SITES...KHQI...KGBK...KEIR...KSPR...KATP...KIPN...KMDJ...
AND KDLP.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS CONTINUE FROM MISSISSIPPI TO
ALABAMA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN FLORIDA FROM THE APALACHICOLA-
TO-MARIANNA LINE WESTWARD. IT IS RAINING IN TALLAHASSEE. LOW
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE COVERING PERRY FLORIDA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD
CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER FLORIDA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA
METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING CITIES. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
PRESENT FROM SARASOTA TO NAPLES.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N61W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 26N61W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
20N60W...AND TO 15N66W IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N67W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 25N72W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
18N86W.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY...TO THE EAST OF 70W...TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LINE 16N70W 16N77W 20N81W 21N84W...AND TO THE
SOUTH OF 15N...IN SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W...FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS OR SO. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS...EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF
18N TO THE WEST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED
EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA OF HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA NOW.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...A
LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN
BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A CARIBBEAN
SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA...RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS/CUBA RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N61W...TO A
26N61W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N60W AND 15N66W IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
30N62W 26N64W 23N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N TO 30N BETWEEN 53W AND 62W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH
OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 50W. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 32N. BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 28N
TO THE EAST OF 40W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 33N30W TO
32N32W...TO 31N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 50W. BROAD SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE
EAST OF 40W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 33N30W TO 32N32W...TO
31N41W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 28N45W 25N34W...
TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO
25N72W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N86W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM
31N63W TO 24N55W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST HAS TO DO WITH THE 6-
HOUR FORECAST...THAT CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT TO BE TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W. A
THIRD AREA OF INTEREST HAS TO DO WITH THE 12-HOUR FORECAST THAT
CONSISTS OF...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET TO
THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 151758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EST TUE APR 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GULF OF MEXICO STORM WARNING...

A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 30N86W 18N94W. EXPECT STORM-FORCE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 13 TO 20 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 95W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTH WINDS
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO 25N TO THE WEST OF 93W.
SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET...EXCEPT 12 TO 18 FEET TO THE NORTH OF
22N. EXPECT ALSO NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET...EXCEPT 10 TO 15 FEET TO THE WEST OF
93W...IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT. GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO THE SOUTH OF
21N TO THE WEST OF 93W IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 9N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N15W TO 4N20W.
THE ITCZ IS BROKEN UP BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 21W/22W
FROM 5N SOUTHWARD. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W
TO 1S33W AND 1S41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 300 NM TO 500 NM TO
THE SOUTH OF 2N27W 3N40W 3N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH
OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A...INCLUDING REACHING
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF GEORGIA...THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N90W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO
THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N96W...CURVING TO 21N101W IN MEXICO. THE
FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY IN MEXICO FROM 21N101W TO 26N101W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN FLORIDA FROM 28N
TO 30N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 26N
TO 28N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 28N83W 22N88W. CLEARING SKIES
ARE BETWEEN 91W AND 97W IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA...ABOUT 90 NM OFFSHORE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN BUILDING FROM TEXAS INTO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS OR SO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUFFICIENTLY GREAT ENOUGH
IN ORDER FOR GALE-FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO...DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE
PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. STORM-
FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
SITES...KHQI...KGBK...KEIR...KSPR...KATP...KIPN...KMDJ...
AND KDLP.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS CONTINUE FROM MISSISSIPPI TO
ALABAMA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN FLORIDA FROM THE APALACHICOLA-
TO-MARIANNA LINE WESTWARD. IT IS RAINING IN TALLAHASSEE. LOW
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE COVERING PERRY FLORIDA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD
CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER FLORIDA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA
METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING CITIES. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
PRESENT FROM SARASOTA TO NAPLES.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N61W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 26N61W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
20N60W...AND TO 15N66W IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N67W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 25N72W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
18N86W.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY...TO THE EAST OF 70W...TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LINE 16N70W 16N77W 20N81W 21N84W...AND TO THE
SOUTH OF 15N...IN SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W...FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS OR SO. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS...EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF
18N TO THE WEST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED
EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA OF HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA NOW.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...A
LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN
BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A CARIBBEAN
SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA...RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS/CUBA RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N61W...TO A
26N61W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N60W AND 15N66W IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
30N62W 26N64W 23N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N TO 30N BETWEEN 53W AND 62W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH
OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 50W. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 32N. BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 28N
TO THE EAST OF 40W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 33N30W TO
32N32W...TO 31N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 50W. BROAD SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE
EAST OF 40W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 33N30W TO 32N32W...TO
31N41W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 28N45W 25N34W...
TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO
25N72W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N86W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM
31N63W TO 24N55W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST HAS TO DO WITH THE 6-
HOUR FORECAST...THAT CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT TO BE TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W. A
THIRD AREA OF INTEREST HAS TO DO WITH THE 12-HOUR FORECAST THAT
CONSISTS OF...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET TO
THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 151758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EST TUE APR 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GULF OF MEXICO STORM WARNING...

A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 30N86W 18N94W. EXPECT STORM-FORCE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 13 TO 20 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 95W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTH WINDS
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO 25N TO THE WEST OF 93W.
SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET...EXCEPT 12 TO 18 FEET TO THE NORTH OF
22N. EXPECT ALSO NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET...EXCEPT 10 TO 15 FEET TO THE WEST OF
93W...IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT. GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO THE SOUTH OF
21N TO THE WEST OF 93W IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 9N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N15W TO 4N20W.
THE ITCZ IS BROKEN UP BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 21W/22W
FROM 5N SOUTHWARD. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W
TO 1S33W AND 1S41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 300 NM TO 500 NM TO
THE SOUTH OF 2N27W 3N40W 3N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH
OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A...INCLUDING REACHING
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF GEORGIA...THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N90W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO
THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N96W...CURVING TO 21N101W IN MEXICO. THE
FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY IN MEXICO FROM 21N101W TO 26N101W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN FLORIDA FROM 28N
TO 30N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 26N
TO 28N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 28N83W 22N88W. CLEARING SKIES
ARE BETWEEN 91W AND 97W IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA...ABOUT 90 NM OFFSHORE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN BUILDING FROM TEXAS INTO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS OR SO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUFFICIENTLY GREAT ENOUGH
IN ORDER FOR GALE-FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO...DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE
PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. STORM-
FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
SITES...KHQI...KGBK...KEIR...KSPR...KATP...KIPN...KMDJ...
AND KDLP.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS CONTINUE FROM MISSISSIPPI TO
ALABAMA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN FLORIDA FROM THE APALACHICOLA-
TO-MARIANNA LINE WESTWARD. IT IS RAINING IN TALLAHASSEE. LOW
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE COVERING PERRY FLORIDA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD
CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER FLORIDA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA
METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING CITIES. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
PRESENT FROM SARASOTA TO NAPLES.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N61W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 26N61W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
20N60W...AND TO 15N66W IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N67W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 25N72W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
18N86W.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY...TO THE EAST OF 70W...TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LINE 16N70W 16N77W 20N81W 21N84W...AND TO THE
SOUTH OF 15N...IN SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W...FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS OR SO. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS...EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF
18N TO THE WEST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED
EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA OF HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA NOW.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...A
LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN
BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A CARIBBEAN
SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA...RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS/CUBA RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N61W...TO A
26N61W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N60W AND 15N66W IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
30N62W 26N64W 23N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N TO 30N BETWEEN 53W AND 62W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH
OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 50W. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 32N. BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 28N
TO THE EAST OF 40W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 33N30W TO
32N32W...TO 31N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 50W. BROAD SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE
EAST OF 40W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 33N30W TO 32N32W...TO
31N41W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 28N45W 25N34W...
TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO
25N72W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N86W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM
31N63W TO 24N55W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST HAS TO DO WITH THE 6-
HOUR FORECAST...THAT CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT TO BE TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W. A
THIRD AREA OF INTEREST HAS TO DO WITH THE 12-HOUR FORECAST THAT
CONSISTS OF...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET TO
THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities