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000
AXNT20 KNHC 210543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 09N13W TO
08N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 05N32W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 00N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 20W-29W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 22W-
31W...AND FROM 03N-08N W OF 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
29N87W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE
EASTERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N96W TO THE LOW CENTER THEN CROSSING
THE N FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N83W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED
CONVECTION PREVAILING N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND GULF COAST STATES. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
BREEZE PREVAILS N OF THE FRONT WHILE A SLIGHT EASTERLY BREEZE IS
OBSERVED S OF 26N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM
23N93W TO 17N95W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE E
PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH AXIS FROM 24N87W TO
17N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN
84W-87W AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA ACROSS THE GULF
PRODUCING WSW FLOW OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE E INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE THE TAIL
END OF THE FRONT DRIFTS NORTH TOWARD TAMPICO MEXICO. ALSO EXPECT
FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF TO THE W
CARIBBEAN FROM 24N87W TO 17N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS MOSTLY N OF 21N W OF 84W AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W
CUBA. A GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZE IS OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF THE
BASIN EXCEPT S OF 15N WHERE A MODERATE BREEZE IS PREVAILING.
SHALLOW MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN PRODUCING A WSW FLOW. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT W OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ENHANCING CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA REACHING THE ATLANTIC NEAR 30N81W TO 30N56W. FROM THIS
POINT...THIS BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
N ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS
FRONT. TO THE E...ANOTHER STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM A 1009
MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N44W. THE FRONT IS FROM 33N44W TO
21N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 21N
BETWEEN 37W-47W. A LARGE 1038 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
CENTERED NEAR 40N21W WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING S OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO MOVE ESE WITH SHOWERS. EXPECT FOR THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO MOVE TO N WITH ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENING INTO A
TROUGH AND EXTENDING S ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 210543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 09N13W TO
08N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 05N32W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 00N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 20W-29W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 22W-
31W...AND FROM 03N-08N W OF 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
29N87W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE
EASTERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N96W TO THE LOW CENTER THEN CROSSING
THE N FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N83W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED
CONVECTION PREVAILING N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND GULF COAST STATES. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
BREEZE PREVAILS N OF THE FRONT WHILE A SLIGHT EASTERLY BREEZE IS
OBSERVED S OF 26N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM
23N93W TO 17N95W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE E
PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH AXIS FROM 24N87W TO
17N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN
84W-87W AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA ACROSS THE GULF
PRODUCING WSW FLOW OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE E INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE THE TAIL
END OF THE FRONT DRIFTS NORTH TOWARD TAMPICO MEXICO. ALSO EXPECT
FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF TO THE W
CARIBBEAN FROM 24N87W TO 17N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS MOSTLY N OF 21N W OF 84W AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W
CUBA. A GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZE IS OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF THE
BASIN EXCEPT S OF 15N WHERE A MODERATE BREEZE IS PREVAILING.
SHALLOW MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN PRODUCING A WSW FLOW. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT W OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ENHANCING CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA REACHING THE ATLANTIC NEAR 30N81W TO 30N56W. FROM THIS
POINT...THIS BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
N ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS
FRONT. TO THE E...ANOTHER STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM A 1009
MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N44W. THE FRONT IS FROM 33N44W TO
21N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 21N
BETWEEN 37W-47W. A LARGE 1038 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
CENTERED NEAR 40N21W WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING S OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO MOVE ESE WITH SHOWERS. EXPECT FOR THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO MOVE TO N WITH ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENING INTO A
TROUGH AND EXTENDING S ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 210543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 09N13W TO
08N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 05N32W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 00N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 20W-29W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 22W-
31W...AND FROM 03N-08N W OF 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
29N87W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE
EASTERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N96W TO THE LOW CENTER THEN CROSSING
THE N FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N83W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED
CONVECTION PREVAILING N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND GULF COAST STATES. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
BREEZE PREVAILS N OF THE FRONT WHILE A SLIGHT EASTERLY BREEZE IS
OBSERVED S OF 26N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM
23N93W TO 17N95W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE E
PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH AXIS FROM 24N87W TO
17N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN
84W-87W AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA ACROSS THE GULF
PRODUCING WSW FLOW OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE E INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE THE TAIL
END OF THE FRONT DRIFTS NORTH TOWARD TAMPICO MEXICO. ALSO EXPECT
FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF TO THE W
CARIBBEAN FROM 24N87W TO 17N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS MOSTLY N OF 21N W OF 84W AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W
CUBA. A GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZE IS OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF THE
BASIN EXCEPT S OF 15N WHERE A MODERATE BREEZE IS PREVAILING.
SHALLOW MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN PRODUCING A WSW FLOW. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT W OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ENHANCING CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA REACHING THE ATLANTIC NEAR 30N81W TO 30N56W. FROM THIS
POINT...THIS BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
N ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS
FRONT. TO THE E...ANOTHER STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM A 1009
MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N44W. THE FRONT IS FROM 33N44W TO
21N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 21N
BETWEEN 37W-47W. A LARGE 1038 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
CENTERED NEAR 40N21W WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING S OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO MOVE ESE WITH SHOWERS. EXPECT FOR THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO MOVE TO N WITH ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENING INTO A
TROUGH AND EXTENDING S ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 210543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 09N13W TO
08N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 05N32W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 00N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 20W-29W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 22W-
31W...AND FROM 03N-08N W OF 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
29N87W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE
EASTERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N96W TO THE LOW CENTER THEN CROSSING
THE N FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N83W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED
CONVECTION PREVAILING N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND GULF COAST STATES. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
BREEZE PREVAILS N OF THE FRONT WHILE A SLIGHT EASTERLY BREEZE IS
OBSERVED S OF 26N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM
23N93W TO 17N95W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE E
PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH AXIS FROM 24N87W TO
17N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN
84W-87W AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA ACROSS THE GULF
PRODUCING WSW FLOW OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE E INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE THE TAIL
END OF THE FRONT DRIFTS NORTH TOWARD TAMPICO MEXICO. ALSO EXPECT
FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF TO THE W
CARIBBEAN FROM 24N87W TO 17N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS MOSTLY N OF 21N W OF 84W AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W
CUBA. A GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZE IS OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF THE
BASIN EXCEPT S OF 15N WHERE A MODERATE BREEZE IS PREVAILING.
SHALLOW MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN PRODUCING A WSW FLOW. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT W OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ENHANCING CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA REACHING THE ATLANTIC NEAR 30N81W TO 30N56W. FROM THIS
POINT...THIS BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
N ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS
FRONT. TO THE E...ANOTHER STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM A 1009
MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N44W. THE FRONT IS FROM 33N44W TO
21N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 21N
BETWEEN 37W-47W. A LARGE 1038 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
CENTERED NEAR 40N21W WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING S OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO MOVE ESE WITH SHOWERS. EXPECT FOR THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO MOVE TO N WITH ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENING INTO A
TROUGH AND EXTENDING S ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210321
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 07N78W TO 06N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO A 1009 MB EMBEDDED
LOW PRESSURE AT 08N103W...WITH THE ITCZ CONTINUING WSW TO BEYOND
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG OBSERVED NEAR THE
EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 08N96W TO
07N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM OF 05N80W...AND ALONG THE ITCZ
WITHIN 60 NM OF 07N125W AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 09N136W TO 08N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N106W TO 19N113W. DENSE
UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING SE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE
N OF 26N BETWEEN 110-122W TO INCLUDE THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GULF
OF CALIFORNIA. A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE... ORIGINATING FROM
ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 138-159W...CONTINUES TO STREAM E AND NE
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 0N140W TO 10N120W TO OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT
19N105W...THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES NE ACROSS CENTRAL
MEXICO...TURNING ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ACROSS MOST OF FLORIDA.

AT THE LOW LEVELS...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE
E ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS N OF THE ITCZ W OF ABOUT
115W...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-16 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS NEAR 30N122W. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL SOON ARRIVE
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN THE
FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT ON SUN...BUT
EXPECT 7-10 FT SEAS ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA ON SUN AFTERNOON. THE SWELLS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE WITH 5-8 FT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON MON AND MON NIGHT...AND 4-7 FT
SEAS EXPECTED ON TUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS S OF 28N.
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25
KT...SEAS 10-12 FT...ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 28N
BETWEEN 118-126W ON SUN NIGHT AND MON...THEN DIMINISHING TO 15-
20 KT ON TUE. GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR
29N ON TUE...THEN SPREAD SW TO NEAR 27N117W ON TUE NIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY LATE WED.

A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 30N135W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SE TO 17N104W. NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF
EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-14 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM 08-22N W OF 120W. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX
ON MON WITH THE EFFECTED AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS SHRINKING
THROUGH MON NIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS ON TUE. THE COMBINED SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TO THE 6-9 FT RANGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS W OF 115W
BY THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND 10-15
KT ON SUN NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ON MON NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT THAT THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO
20-30 KT LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO STRONG GALE
FORCE WED AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR STORM
STRENGTH LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE GALE EVENT TO END ON THU
NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW ON TUE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-25 KT EVENT ON THU NIGHT EXTENDING AS
FAR SW AS 08N92W.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN
NIGHT THEN DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT LATE MON AND MON NIGHT. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO
20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...WITH 20-
30 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FT IN LONG
FETCH WATERS NEAR 29N BY TUE EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX
ON WED WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW
ON THU.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210321
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 07N78W TO 06N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO A 1009 MB EMBEDDED
LOW PRESSURE AT 08N103W...WITH THE ITCZ CONTINUING WSW TO BEYOND
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG OBSERVED NEAR THE
EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 08N96W TO
07N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM OF 05N80W...AND ALONG THE ITCZ
WITHIN 60 NM OF 07N125W AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 09N136W TO 08N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N106W TO 19N113W. DENSE
UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING SE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE
N OF 26N BETWEEN 110-122W TO INCLUDE THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GULF
OF CALIFORNIA. A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE... ORIGINATING FROM
ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 138-159W...CONTINUES TO STREAM E AND NE
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 0N140W TO 10N120W TO OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT
19N105W...THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES NE ACROSS CENTRAL
MEXICO...TURNING ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ACROSS MOST OF FLORIDA.

AT THE LOW LEVELS...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE
E ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS N OF THE ITCZ W OF ABOUT
115W...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-16 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS NEAR 30N122W. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL SOON ARRIVE
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN THE
FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT ON SUN...BUT
EXPECT 7-10 FT SEAS ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA ON SUN AFTERNOON. THE SWELLS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE WITH 5-8 FT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON MON AND MON NIGHT...AND 4-7 FT
SEAS EXPECTED ON TUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS S OF 28N.
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25
KT...SEAS 10-12 FT...ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 28N
BETWEEN 118-126W ON SUN NIGHT AND MON...THEN DIMINISHING TO 15-
20 KT ON TUE. GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR
29N ON TUE...THEN SPREAD SW TO NEAR 27N117W ON TUE NIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY LATE WED.

A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 30N135W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SE TO 17N104W. NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF
EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-14 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM 08-22N W OF 120W. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX
ON MON WITH THE EFFECTED AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS SHRINKING
THROUGH MON NIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS ON TUE. THE COMBINED SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TO THE 6-9 FT RANGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS W OF 115W
BY THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND 10-15
KT ON SUN NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ON MON NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT THAT THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO
20-30 KT LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO STRONG GALE
FORCE WED AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR STORM
STRENGTH LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE GALE EVENT TO END ON THU
NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW ON TUE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-25 KT EVENT ON THU NIGHT EXTENDING AS
FAR SW AS 08N92W.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN
NIGHT THEN DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT LATE MON AND MON NIGHT. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO
20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...WITH 20-
30 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FT IN LONG
FETCH WATERS NEAR 29N BY TUE EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX
ON WED WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW
ON THU.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210321
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 07N78W TO 06N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO A 1009 MB EMBEDDED
LOW PRESSURE AT 08N103W...WITH THE ITCZ CONTINUING WSW TO BEYOND
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG OBSERVED NEAR THE
EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 08N96W TO
07N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM OF 05N80W...AND ALONG THE ITCZ
WITHIN 60 NM OF 07N125W AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 09N136W TO 08N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N106W TO 19N113W. DENSE
UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING SE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE
N OF 26N BETWEEN 110-122W TO INCLUDE THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GULF
OF CALIFORNIA. A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE... ORIGINATING FROM
ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 138-159W...CONTINUES TO STREAM E AND NE
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 0N140W TO 10N120W TO OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT
19N105W...THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES NE ACROSS CENTRAL
MEXICO...TURNING ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ACROSS MOST OF FLORIDA.

AT THE LOW LEVELS...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE
E ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS N OF THE ITCZ W OF ABOUT
115W...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-16 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS NEAR 30N122W. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL SOON ARRIVE
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN THE
FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT ON SUN...BUT
EXPECT 7-10 FT SEAS ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA ON SUN AFTERNOON. THE SWELLS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE WITH 5-8 FT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON MON AND MON NIGHT...AND 4-7 FT
SEAS EXPECTED ON TUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS S OF 28N.
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25
KT...SEAS 10-12 FT...ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 28N
BETWEEN 118-126W ON SUN NIGHT AND MON...THEN DIMINISHING TO 15-
20 KT ON TUE. GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR
29N ON TUE...THEN SPREAD SW TO NEAR 27N117W ON TUE NIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY LATE WED.

A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 30N135W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SE TO 17N104W. NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF
EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-14 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM 08-22N W OF 120W. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX
ON MON WITH THE EFFECTED AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS SHRINKING
THROUGH MON NIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS ON TUE. THE COMBINED SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TO THE 6-9 FT RANGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS W OF 115W
BY THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND 10-15
KT ON SUN NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ON MON NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT THAT THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO
20-30 KT LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO STRONG GALE
FORCE WED AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR STORM
STRENGTH LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE GALE EVENT TO END ON THU
NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW ON TUE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-25 KT EVENT ON THU NIGHT EXTENDING AS
FAR SW AS 08N92W.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN
NIGHT THEN DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT LATE MON AND MON NIGHT. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO
20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...WITH 20-
30 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FT IN LONG
FETCH WATERS NEAR 29N BY TUE EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX
ON WED WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW
ON THU.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210321
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 07N78W TO 06N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO A 1009 MB EMBEDDED
LOW PRESSURE AT 08N103W...WITH THE ITCZ CONTINUING WSW TO BEYOND
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG OBSERVED NEAR THE
EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 08N96W TO
07N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM OF 05N80W...AND ALONG THE ITCZ
WITHIN 60 NM OF 07N125W AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 09N136W TO 08N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N106W TO 19N113W. DENSE
UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING SE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE
N OF 26N BETWEEN 110-122W TO INCLUDE THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GULF
OF CALIFORNIA. A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE... ORIGINATING FROM
ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 138-159W...CONTINUES TO STREAM E AND NE
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 0N140W TO 10N120W TO OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT
19N105W...THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES NE ACROSS CENTRAL
MEXICO...TURNING ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ACROSS MOST OF FLORIDA.

AT THE LOW LEVELS...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE
E ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS N OF THE ITCZ W OF ABOUT
115W...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-16 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS NEAR 30N122W. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL SOON ARRIVE
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN THE
FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT ON SUN...BUT
EXPECT 7-10 FT SEAS ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA ON SUN AFTERNOON. THE SWELLS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE WITH 5-8 FT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON MON AND MON NIGHT...AND 4-7 FT
SEAS EXPECTED ON TUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS S OF 28N.
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25
KT...SEAS 10-12 FT...ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 28N
BETWEEN 118-126W ON SUN NIGHT AND MON...THEN DIMINISHING TO 15-
20 KT ON TUE. GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR
29N ON TUE...THEN SPREAD SW TO NEAR 27N117W ON TUE NIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY LATE WED.

A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 30N135W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SE TO 17N104W. NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF
EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-14 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM 08-22N W OF 120W. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX
ON MON WITH THE EFFECTED AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS SHRINKING
THROUGH MON NIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS ON TUE. THE COMBINED SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TO THE 6-9 FT RANGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS W OF 115W
BY THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND 10-15
KT ON SUN NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ON MON NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT THAT THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO
20-30 KT LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO STRONG GALE
FORCE WED AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR STORM
STRENGTH LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE GALE EVENT TO END ON THU
NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW ON TUE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-25 KT EVENT ON THU NIGHT EXTENDING AS
FAR SW AS 08N92W.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN
NIGHT THEN DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT LATE MON AND MON NIGHT. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO
20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...WITH 20-
30 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FT IN LONG
FETCH WATERS NEAR 29N BY TUE EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX
ON WED WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW
ON THU.

$$
NELSON



000
AXNT20 KNHC 210002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N45W IS GENERATING GALE
FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC PARTICULARLY WITHIN 210
NM SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING SEAS
UP TO 17 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS. THE LOW IS FORECAST
TO MOVE JUST N OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 06 HOURS. AS A
RESULT..THE GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 21/0000 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 10N14W TO
10N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 06N20W TO 05N30W
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 01N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 20W-29W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN
36W-40W...AND FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 42W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 29N87W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ENE FROM
THE LOW TO BEYOND ST AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AT 30N81W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 24N94W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT
20N96W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NE GULF
AND N FLORIDA N OF 29N E OF 87W. 15-20 KT WINDS ARE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOW AND N OF FRONT. MOSTLY 10 KT WINDS ARE S OF
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SE GULF AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 24N86W TO BEYOND 20N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 84W-
88W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS PRODUCING WSW FLOW
OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE TO THE
ATLANTIC OFF THE GEORGIA COAST...WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT
DRIFTS BACK NORTH TOWARD TAMPICO MEXICO. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SE GULF WITH
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF TO THE COAST OF BELIZE
FROM 24N86W TO 20N88W TO 17N88W. CONVECTION IS MOSTLY N OF 19N
BETWEEN 84W-88W. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 14N E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS PRODUCING WSW FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT W OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH
CONTINUED CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ISLAND AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF THE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
31N55W TO 30N63W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES W TO 30N73W
TO 31N78W TO ST AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AT 30N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1019 MB HIGH IS FURTHER S NEAR
26N65W. A 1009 MB GALE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N45W. SEE ABOVE. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 28N42W TO 22N41W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120NM E OF FRONT. A
LARGE 1038 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 40N22W
WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. OF NOTE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ABOVE THE GALE
LOW. ALSO A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED ABOVE THE CANARY
ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
DRIFT ESE WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE GALE LOW TO MOVE TO
38N40W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO 27N42W WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202145
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 07N78W TO 06N92W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO A 1011 MB EMBEDDED
LOW PRESSURE AT 08N101W TO 05N140W...THEN CONTINUES WSW TO
BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
OBSERVED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM OF 05N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG OBSERVED NEAR THE EMBEDDED
LOW PRESSURE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N97W TO
09N101W TO 05N113W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE OF LINE FROM 07N123W TO 07N130W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N106W TO 16N125W. DENSE
UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING SE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE
N OF 27N BETWEEN 110-124W. A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE...
ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 138-160W...CONTINUES TO
STREAM NE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM 10N120W TO OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT
10N105W...THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES NE ACROSS CENTRAL
MEXICO...TURNING ENE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

AT THE LOW LEVELS...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES PROPAGATE E
ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS N OF THE ITCZ W OF ABOUT
115W...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-16 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS NEAR 30N125W. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF
8-13 FT SEAS TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH SOME...WITH 7-10 FT SEAS
EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON
SUN. THE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE WITH 6-8 FT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON MON AND
MON NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE TO 4-7 FT ON TUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS S OF 28N. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT...SEAS 8-11 FT...ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 120-128W ON MON NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO
15-20 KT ON TUE. GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA AT 29N ON TUE...THEN SPREAD SW TO NE 27N117W ON TUE
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING ON WED.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N136W TO 15N105W. NE 15-20 KT
TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE
RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM 07-22N W OF 120W. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN ON MON WITH THE AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS SHRINKING
THROUGH MON...AND DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
WATERS ON TUE. THE COMBINED SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO THE
7-9 FT RANGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS W OF 115W ON THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND 10-15
KT ON SUN NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR STORM
STRENGTH LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE GALE EVENT TO END ON THU
NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY MON...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW MON AND TUE NIGHTS.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN LATE WED
NIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-30 KT WINDS LATE THU
NIGHT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN
NIGHT THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT ON MON AND MON NIGHT. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO
20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS EARLY TUE...WITH THESE
CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY
TUE EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ON WED.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202145
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 07N78W TO 06N92W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO A 1011 MB EMBEDDED
LOW PRESSURE AT 08N101W TO 05N140W...THEN CONTINUES WSW TO
BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
OBSERVED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM OF 05N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG OBSERVED NEAR THE EMBEDDED
LOW PRESSURE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N97W TO
09N101W TO 05N113W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE OF LINE FROM 07N123W TO 07N130W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N106W TO 16N125W. DENSE
UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING SE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE
N OF 27N BETWEEN 110-124W. A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE...
ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 138-160W...CONTINUES TO
STREAM NE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM 10N120W TO OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT
10N105W...THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES NE ACROSS CENTRAL
MEXICO...TURNING ENE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

AT THE LOW LEVELS...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES PROPAGATE E
ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS N OF THE ITCZ W OF ABOUT
115W...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-16 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS NEAR 30N125W. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF
8-13 FT SEAS TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH SOME...WITH 7-10 FT SEAS
EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON
SUN. THE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE WITH 6-8 FT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON MON AND
MON NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE TO 4-7 FT ON TUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS S OF 28N. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT...SEAS 8-11 FT...ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 120-128W ON MON NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO
15-20 KT ON TUE. GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA AT 29N ON TUE...THEN SPREAD SW TO NE 27N117W ON TUE
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING ON WED.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N136W TO 15N105W. NE 15-20 KT
TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE
RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM 07-22N W OF 120W. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN ON MON WITH THE AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS SHRINKING
THROUGH MON...AND DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
WATERS ON TUE. THE COMBINED SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO THE
7-9 FT RANGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS W OF 115W ON THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND 10-15
KT ON SUN NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR STORM
STRENGTH LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE GALE EVENT TO END ON THU
NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY MON...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW MON AND TUE NIGHTS.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN LATE WED
NIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-30 KT WINDS LATE THU
NIGHT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN
NIGHT THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT ON MON AND MON NIGHT. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO
20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS EARLY TUE...WITH THESE
CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY
TUE EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ON WED.

$$
NELSON



000
AXNT20 KNHC 201753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N45W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT
CURVES AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 29N45W 30N47W 32N46W...TO THE
TRIPLE POINT THAT IS NEAR 32N44W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM
32N44W TO 28N42W AND 22N41W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N45W. A TROUGH IS ALONG
32N48W...TO THE CYCLONIC CENTER...TO 26N43W AND 24N36W. ANOTHER
BRANCH OF A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 26N43W TO 18N44W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS
OF 32N46W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 43W AND 45W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 21N
TO 30N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W.

EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 150 NM IN THE
EAST SEMICIRCLE. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 17 FEET.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE COASTAL BORDER AREAS OF SIERRA
LEONE AND LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N11W TO
6N21W 5N32W 2N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 4N15W 5N30W 7N37W 6N42W 3N46W 1N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO
30N58W AND 29N54W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N58W TO 31N61W 30N70W AND 30N74W. A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 30N74W TO 31N78W AND 30N80W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 30N80W...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO 29N84W AND 29N88W IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 28N89W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
25N93W...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 22N...CURVING INLAND TO
23N99W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N99W...ACROSS
MEXICO...TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND AND BEYOND. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N63W TO 30N70W
28N80W 25N86W 25N90W 23N94W AND TO 18N94W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...ON TOP OF THE STATIONARY FRONT-TO-
1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N89W-TO COLD FRONT BOUNDARY.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KBBF...KGVX...
KXIH...KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...KGUL...KCRH...KGBK...KVQT...KGHB...
KGRY...KATP...KEIR...KSPR...KMDJ...KIPN...KVOA...KVKY...KMIS...
AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS TO A LINE FROM MARIANNA FLORIDA TO APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA. RAIN IS BEING REPORTED BETWEEN ALABAMA AND
THE MARIANNA-TO-APALACHICOLA LINE.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA ALONG 87W FROM 15N IN HONDURAS TO 23N IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH IS SPREADING BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N
SOUTHWARD FROM 90W EASTWARD...AND FROM CENTRAL GUATEMALA
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM COZUMEL NEAR 20N TO 24N
BETWEEN 84W AND 87W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS ALONG 80W IN
PANAMA...INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N80W...CURVING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF CUBA...AND BEYOND 32N74W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 76W EASTWARD.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THAT PART THAT IS FROM 20N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 18N SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
AMERICA/83W EASTWARD...IN SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
19/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.20 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.06 IN
CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 6N82W
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 4N TO 6N
BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 80W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO IS
MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE SAME TIME. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN
HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN
SANTO DOMINGO...LA ROMANA...AND PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RIDGE WILL
MOVE FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...EVENTUALLY CROSSING
HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA/IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA...THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...AND END UP ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL
START IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IT WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CUBA. IT WILL RE-FORM NEAR 24N71W...AND
IT WILL END UP NEAR 25N71W AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS ALONG 80W IN
PANAMA...INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N80W...CURVING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF CUBA...AND BEYOND 32N74W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N
NORTHWARD FROM 50W WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 24N18W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE CIRCULATION
CENTER FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN MAURITANIA AND 30W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 19N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE 30N45W LOW
PRESSURE CENTER AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 201753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N45W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT
CURVES AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 29N45W 30N47W 32N46W...TO THE
TRIPLE POINT THAT IS NEAR 32N44W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM
32N44W TO 28N42W AND 22N41W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N45W. A TROUGH IS ALONG
32N48W...TO THE CYCLONIC CENTER...TO 26N43W AND 24N36W. ANOTHER
BRANCH OF A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 26N43W TO 18N44W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS
OF 32N46W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 43W AND 45W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 21N
TO 30N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W.

EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 150 NM IN THE
EAST SEMICIRCLE. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 17 FEET.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE COASTAL BORDER AREAS OF SIERRA
LEONE AND LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N11W TO
6N21W 5N32W 2N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 4N15W 5N30W 7N37W 6N42W 3N46W 1N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO
30N58W AND 29N54W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N58W TO 31N61W 30N70W AND 30N74W. A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 30N74W TO 31N78W AND 30N80W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 30N80W...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO 29N84W AND 29N88W IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 28N89W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
25N93W...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 22N...CURVING INLAND TO
23N99W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N99W...ACROSS
MEXICO...TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND AND BEYOND. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N63W TO 30N70W
28N80W 25N86W 25N90W 23N94W AND TO 18N94W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...ON TOP OF THE STATIONARY FRONT-TO-
1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N89W-TO COLD FRONT BOUNDARY.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KBBF...KGVX...
KXIH...KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...KGUL...KCRH...KGBK...KVQT...KGHB...
KGRY...KATP...KEIR...KSPR...KMDJ...KIPN...KVOA...KVKY...KMIS...
AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS TO A LINE FROM MARIANNA FLORIDA TO APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA. RAIN IS BEING REPORTED BETWEEN ALABAMA AND
THE MARIANNA-TO-APALACHICOLA LINE.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA ALONG 87W FROM 15N IN HONDURAS TO 23N IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH IS SPREADING BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N
SOUTHWARD FROM 90W EASTWARD...AND FROM CENTRAL GUATEMALA
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM COZUMEL NEAR 20N TO 24N
BETWEEN 84W AND 87W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS ALONG 80W IN
PANAMA...INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N80W...CURVING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF CUBA...AND BEYOND 32N74W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 76W EASTWARD.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THAT PART THAT IS FROM 20N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 18N SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
AMERICA/83W EASTWARD...IN SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
19/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.20 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.06 IN
CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 6N82W
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 4N TO 6N
BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 80W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO IS
MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE SAME TIME. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN
HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN
SANTO DOMINGO...LA ROMANA...AND PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RIDGE WILL
MOVE FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...EVENTUALLY CROSSING
HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA/IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA...THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...AND END UP ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL
START IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IT WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CUBA. IT WILL RE-FORM NEAR 24N71W...AND
IT WILL END UP NEAR 25N71W AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS ALONG 80W IN
PANAMA...INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N80W...CURVING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF CUBA...AND BEYOND 32N74W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N
NORTHWARD FROM 50W WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 24N18W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE CIRCULATION
CENTER FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN MAURITANIA AND 30W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 19N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE 30N45W LOW
PRESSURE CENTER AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201520
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N93W. ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 06N93W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N101W TO 05N111W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF
THE LOW NEAR 08N101W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG 27N W OF 120W DOMINATES NORTHERN
WATERS. MODERATELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES ACROSS W CENTRAL WATERS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MON NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA SUN AND MON WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS SW OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUN.

LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH DISSIPATED COLD FRONT
IS SWEEPING TOWARD THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH MAX SEAS TO
15-17 FT NEAR 30N130W BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA. LARGE AREA OF
SEAS GREATER THAN 7-8 FT EXTENDING OVER MOST OF REGION W OF 117W
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE THIS WEEKEND AND COVER MOST OF AREA W
OF 105W BY MON MORNING.

A WEAK 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA EMBEDDED IN ITCZ NEAR 08N101W
IS MOVING W AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW CENTER.
THE LOW WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH OCCASIONAL DEEP CONVECTION AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE W THROUGH MON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT.

...GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW TO 15-20 KT
IS EXPECTED DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH
MON MORNING WITH PEAK WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KT EARLY SUN. HIGH
PRES BUILDING BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TUE NIGHT AND WED WILL INDUCE VERY HIGH WINDS IN GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AFTER EARLY WED MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GALE
WINDS ARE LIKELY WED THROUGH FRI. STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
DIURNAL MAX LATE WED AND EARLY THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY TUE...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WED.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
WATERS AND TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO WILL SUPPORT FRESH NW WINDS IN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUE MORNING...THEN BECOME STRONG TUE
THROUGH WED MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS REGION TIGHTENS.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201520
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N93W. ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 06N93W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N101W TO 05N111W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF
THE LOW NEAR 08N101W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG 27N W OF 120W DOMINATES NORTHERN
WATERS. MODERATELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES ACROSS W CENTRAL WATERS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MON NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA SUN AND MON WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS SW OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUN.

LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH DISSIPATED COLD FRONT
IS SWEEPING TOWARD THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH MAX SEAS TO
15-17 FT NEAR 30N130W BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA. LARGE AREA OF
SEAS GREATER THAN 7-8 FT EXTENDING OVER MOST OF REGION W OF 117W
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE THIS WEEKEND AND COVER MOST OF AREA W
OF 105W BY MON MORNING.

A WEAK 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA EMBEDDED IN ITCZ NEAR 08N101W
IS MOVING W AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW CENTER.
THE LOW WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH OCCASIONAL DEEP CONVECTION AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE W THROUGH MON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT.

...GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW TO 15-20 KT
IS EXPECTED DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH
MON MORNING WITH PEAK WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KT EARLY SUN. HIGH
PRES BUILDING BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TUE NIGHT AND WED WILL INDUCE VERY HIGH WINDS IN GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AFTER EARLY WED MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GALE
WINDS ARE LIKELY WED THROUGH FRI. STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
DIURNAL MAX LATE WED AND EARLY THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY TUE...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WED.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
WATERS AND TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO WILL SUPPORT FRESH NW WINDS IN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUE MORNING...THEN BECOME STRONG TUE
THROUGH WED MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS REGION TIGHTENS.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201520
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N93W. ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 06N93W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N101W TO 05N111W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF
THE LOW NEAR 08N101W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG 27N W OF 120W DOMINATES NORTHERN
WATERS. MODERATELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES ACROSS W CENTRAL WATERS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MON NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA SUN AND MON WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS SW OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUN.

LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH DISSIPATED COLD FRONT
IS SWEEPING TOWARD THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH MAX SEAS TO
15-17 FT NEAR 30N130W BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA. LARGE AREA OF
SEAS GREATER THAN 7-8 FT EXTENDING OVER MOST OF REGION W OF 117W
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE THIS WEEKEND AND COVER MOST OF AREA W
OF 105W BY MON MORNING.

A WEAK 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA EMBEDDED IN ITCZ NEAR 08N101W
IS MOVING W AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW CENTER.
THE LOW WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH OCCASIONAL DEEP CONVECTION AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE W THROUGH MON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT.

...GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW TO 15-20 KT
IS EXPECTED DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH
MON MORNING WITH PEAK WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KT EARLY SUN. HIGH
PRES BUILDING BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TUE NIGHT AND WED WILL INDUCE VERY HIGH WINDS IN GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AFTER EARLY WED MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GALE
WINDS ARE LIKELY WED THROUGH FRI. STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
DIURNAL MAX LATE WED AND EARLY THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY TUE...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WED.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
WATERS AND TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO WILL SUPPORT FRESH NW WINDS IN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUE MORNING...THEN BECOME STRONG TUE
THROUGH WED MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS REGION TIGHTENS.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201520
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N93W. ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 06N93W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N101W TO 05N111W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF
THE LOW NEAR 08N101W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG 27N W OF 120W DOMINATES NORTHERN
WATERS. MODERATELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES ACROSS W CENTRAL WATERS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MON NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA SUN AND MON WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS SW OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUN.

LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH DISSIPATED COLD FRONT
IS SWEEPING TOWARD THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH MAX SEAS TO
15-17 FT NEAR 30N130W BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA. LARGE AREA OF
SEAS GREATER THAN 7-8 FT EXTENDING OVER MOST OF REGION W OF 117W
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE THIS WEEKEND AND COVER MOST OF AREA W
OF 105W BY MON MORNING.

A WEAK 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA EMBEDDED IN ITCZ NEAR 08N101W
IS MOVING W AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW CENTER.
THE LOW WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH OCCASIONAL DEEP CONVECTION AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE W THROUGH MON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT.

...GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW TO 15-20 KT
IS EXPECTED DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH
MON MORNING WITH PEAK WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KT EARLY SUN. HIGH
PRES BUILDING BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TUE NIGHT AND WED WILL INDUCE VERY HIGH WINDS IN GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AFTER EARLY WED MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GALE
WINDS ARE LIKELY WED THROUGH FRI. STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
DIURNAL MAX LATE WED AND EARLY THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY TUE...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WED.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
WATERS AND TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO WILL SUPPORT FRESH NW WINDS IN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUE MORNING...THEN BECOME STRONG TUE
THROUGH WED MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS REGION TIGHTENS.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXNT20 KNHC 201117
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N45W IS GENERATING GALE
FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC PARTICULARLY WITHIN 180
NM E SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING
SEAS UP TO 15 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE JUST N OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AS
A RESULT...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 07N12W TO
06N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N33W TO
02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
03N-08N E OF 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER-LEVEL SW TO W FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN ADVECTING
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EPAC TO THE GULF WATERS. A 1014 MB
SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN NEAR 28N93W FROM
WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO NE MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE SAME LOW ALONG 29N88W TO 29N84W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONTS AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH A N MODERATE BREEZE. FAIR WEATHER AND
A SLIGHT BREEZE PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN AS A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDS S TO THE
GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
EXPECT FOR THE LOW TO MOVE E-NE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE
WEAKENING...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SW TO
EASTERN-CENTRAL MEXICO COASTAL WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM
23N87W TO 18N88W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE FAR WESTERN BASIN
MAINLY W OF 82W IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF
20N W OF 83W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION AFFECTING THE ADJACENT
WATERS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. A SLIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE PREVAILS ACROSS
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT LINGERING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH TO CONTINUE ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER THE NW BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH CONTINUES SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N58W TO
28N63W. TO THE E...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
28N45W. ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 22N40W. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO THE N ATLANTIC. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF 22N BETWEEN 37W-47W. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED E OF THIS LOW CENTER. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE.
SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE NW N OF THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 201117
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N45W IS GENERATING GALE
FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC PARTICULARLY WITHIN 180
NM E SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING
SEAS UP TO 15 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE JUST N OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AS
A RESULT...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 07N12W TO
06N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N33W TO
02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
03N-08N E OF 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER-LEVEL SW TO W FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN ADVECTING
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EPAC TO THE GULF WATERS. A 1014 MB
SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN NEAR 28N93W FROM
WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO NE MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE SAME LOW ALONG 29N88W TO 29N84W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONTS AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH A N MODERATE BREEZE. FAIR WEATHER AND
A SLIGHT BREEZE PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN AS A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDS S TO THE
GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
EXPECT FOR THE LOW TO MOVE E-NE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE
WEAKENING...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SW TO
EASTERN-CENTRAL MEXICO COASTAL WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM
23N87W TO 18N88W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE FAR WESTERN BASIN
MAINLY W OF 82W IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF
20N W OF 83W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION AFFECTING THE ADJACENT
WATERS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. A SLIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE PREVAILS ACROSS
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT LINGERING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH TO CONTINUE ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER THE NW BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH CONTINUES SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N58W TO
28N63W. TO THE E...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
28N45W. ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 22N40W. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO THE N ATLANTIC. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF 22N BETWEEN 37W-47W. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED E OF THIS LOW CENTER. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE.
SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE NW N OF THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 201117
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N45W IS GENERATING GALE
FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC PARTICULARLY WITHIN 180
NM E SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING
SEAS UP TO 15 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE JUST N OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AS
A RESULT...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 07N12W TO
06N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N33W TO
02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
03N-08N E OF 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER-LEVEL SW TO W FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN ADVECTING
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EPAC TO THE GULF WATERS. A 1014 MB
SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN NEAR 28N93W FROM
WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO NE MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE SAME LOW ALONG 29N88W TO 29N84W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONTS AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH A N MODERATE BREEZE. FAIR WEATHER AND
A SLIGHT BREEZE PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN AS A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDS S TO THE
GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
EXPECT FOR THE LOW TO MOVE E-NE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE
WEAKENING...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SW TO
EASTERN-CENTRAL MEXICO COASTAL WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM
23N87W TO 18N88W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE FAR WESTERN BASIN
MAINLY W OF 82W IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF
20N W OF 83W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION AFFECTING THE ADJACENT
WATERS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. A SLIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE PREVAILS ACROSS
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT LINGERING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH TO CONTINUE ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER THE NW BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH CONTINUES SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N58W TO
28N63W. TO THE E...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
28N45W. ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 22N40W. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO THE N ATLANTIC. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF 22N BETWEEN 37W-47W. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED E OF THIS LOW CENTER. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE.
SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE NW N OF THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 201117
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N45W IS GENERATING GALE
FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC PARTICULARLY WITHIN 180
NM E SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING
SEAS UP TO 15 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE JUST N OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AS
A RESULT...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 07N12W TO
06N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N33W TO
02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
03N-08N E OF 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER-LEVEL SW TO W FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN ADVECTING
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EPAC TO THE GULF WATERS. A 1014 MB
SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN NEAR 28N93W FROM
WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO NE MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE SAME LOW ALONG 29N88W TO 29N84W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONTS AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH A N MODERATE BREEZE. FAIR WEATHER AND
A SLIGHT BREEZE PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN AS A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDS S TO THE
GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
EXPECT FOR THE LOW TO MOVE E-NE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE
WEAKENING...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SW TO
EASTERN-CENTRAL MEXICO COASTAL WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM
23N87W TO 18N88W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE FAR WESTERN BASIN
MAINLY W OF 82W IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF
20N W OF 83W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION AFFECTING THE ADJACENT
WATERS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. A SLIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE PREVAILS ACROSS
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT LINGERING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH TO CONTINUE ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER THE NW BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH CONTINUES SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N58W TO
28N63W. TO THE E...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
28N45W. ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 22N40W. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO THE N ATLANTIC. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF 22N BETWEEN 37W-47W. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED E OF THIS LOW CENTER. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE.
SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE NW N OF THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200926
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 10N86W TO 09N89W.
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N89W TO 08N97W THEN RESUMES FROM
07N103W TO 05N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 79W AND 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 119W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AT 1025 MB NEAR 27N125W EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE SE
NEAR 15N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND
LOWER PRESSURES ALONG THE ITCZ IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 48 HOURS...EXPANDING SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE AS THE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN.

MEANWHILE LARGE NW SWELL UP TO 18 FT IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT WHICH ARE SCRAPING ACROSS THE WATERS
FROM JUST W OF THE CALIFORNIA CHANNEL ISLANDS INTO THE N CENTRAL
WATERS. A RECENT NEARBY ALTIMETER PASS SHOWING SEAS UP TO 15 FT
AND A FEW SHIP REPORTS UP TO 13 FT. AN OLD SET OF NW SWELL IS
MIXING WITH NE WIND WAVES GENERATED BY THE TRADES MENTIONED
ABOVE AND COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE WATERS W OF 110W. MAXIMUM SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 13 FT BY
48 HOURS.

THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH 7-10 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA ON SUN. THE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE WITH 6-8 FT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA ON MON AND MON NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT ON TUE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS S OF 28N.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW A WEAK 1011 MB LOW
PRESSURE AREA EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR 08N100W MOVING W AROUND
10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW WHILE SEAS ARE 8-9
FT WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH
NEAR 08.5N110W AT 1011 MB BY 48 HOURS WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SEAS
MERGE WITH THE AREA OF NW SWELL MENTIONED ABOVE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...RECENT ASCAT AND RAPIDSCAT SCATTEROMETER
PASSES INDICATED 20-25 KT NW-N WINDS IN THE GULF FROM 23N TO 28N
W OF 108W...WITH 15-20 KT ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-
20 KT LATER TODAY...FURTHER DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT MON. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KT N OF 26N W OF
110W TUE...PERSISTING FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A MAXIMUM OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
FLOW IS OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...
INCREASING TO 20-25 KT SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN...THEN BACK TO
10-15 KT SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THE THE NEXT GALE EVENT WILL BEGIN AROUND SUNRISE ON
WED INCREASING TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH ON WED NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY MON...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY
TUE...THE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WED.

$$
LEWITSKY


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200926
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 10N86W TO 09N89W.
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N89W TO 08N97W THEN RESUMES FROM
07N103W TO 05N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 79W AND 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 119W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AT 1025 MB NEAR 27N125W EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE SE
NEAR 15N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND
LOWER PRESSURES ALONG THE ITCZ IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 48 HOURS...EXPANDING SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE AS THE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN.

MEANWHILE LARGE NW SWELL UP TO 18 FT IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT WHICH ARE SCRAPING ACROSS THE WATERS
FROM JUST W OF THE CALIFORNIA CHANNEL ISLANDS INTO THE N CENTRAL
WATERS. A RECENT NEARBY ALTIMETER PASS SHOWING SEAS UP TO 15 FT
AND A FEW SHIP REPORTS UP TO 13 FT. AN OLD SET OF NW SWELL IS
MIXING WITH NE WIND WAVES GENERATED BY THE TRADES MENTIONED
ABOVE AND COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE WATERS W OF 110W. MAXIMUM SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 13 FT BY
48 HOURS.

THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH 7-10 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA ON SUN. THE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE WITH 6-8 FT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA ON MON AND MON NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT ON TUE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS S OF 28N.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW A WEAK 1011 MB LOW
PRESSURE AREA EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR 08N100W MOVING W AROUND
10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW WHILE SEAS ARE 8-9
FT WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH
NEAR 08.5N110W AT 1011 MB BY 48 HOURS WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SEAS
MERGE WITH THE AREA OF NW SWELL MENTIONED ABOVE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...RECENT ASCAT AND RAPIDSCAT SCATTEROMETER
PASSES INDICATED 20-25 KT NW-N WINDS IN THE GULF FROM 23N TO 28N
W OF 108W...WITH 15-20 KT ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-
20 KT LATER TODAY...FURTHER DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT MON. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KT N OF 26N W OF
110W TUE...PERSISTING FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A MAXIMUM OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
FLOW IS OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...
INCREASING TO 20-25 KT SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN...THEN BACK TO
10-15 KT SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THE THE NEXT GALE EVENT WILL BEGIN AROUND SUNRISE ON
WED INCREASING TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH ON WED NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY MON...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY
TUE...THE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WED.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXNT20 KNHC 200534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THROUGH NORTHERN LIBERIA AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 07N13W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N28W TO 05N41W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N E OF 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER-LEVEL SW TO W FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN ADVECTING
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EPAC TO THE GULF WATERS. A 1014 MB
SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE BASIN NEAR 29N95W FROM
WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO NORTHERN MEXICO. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE SAME LOW ALONG 29N90W TO 30N87W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONTS AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH A MODERATE BREEZE. FAIR WEATHER AND A
SLIGHT BREEZE PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN AS A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDS S TO THE
GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
EXPECT FOR THE LOW TO MOVE E-NE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE
WEAKENING WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO EASTERN-
CENTRAL MEXICO COASTAL WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE 1010 MB LOW IS E OF BELIZE NEAR 18N87W WITH ASSOCIATED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 21N86W TO THE LOW TO 15N87W. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IN THE FAR WESTERN BASIN ENHANCES MAINLY W OF 82W IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 20N W OF 83W. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AFFECTING THE ADJACENT WATERS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO.  FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM
ALOFT. A SLIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT FOR THE LOW TO DISSIPATE.
HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY CONTINUE
ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE NW BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH CONTINUES SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N59W TO
27N75W. TO THE E...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
28N45W. ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 23N42W. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO THE N ATLANTIC. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 21N BETWEEN 38W-49W. NEAR GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE OBSERVED E OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 41W-
45W. SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
FOR THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE NW N OF THE AREA
OF DISCUSSION. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 200534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THROUGH NORTHERN LIBERIA AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 07N13W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N28W TO 05N41W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N E OF 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER-LEVEL SW TO W FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN ADVECTING
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EPAC TO THE GULF WATERS. A 1014 MB
SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE BASIN NEAR 29N95W FROM
WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO NORTHERN MEXICO. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE SAME LOW ALONG 29N90W TO 30N87W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONTS AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH A MODERATE BREEZE. FAIR WEATHER AND A
SLIGHT BREEZE PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN AS A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDS S TO THE
GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
EXPECT FOR THE LOW TO MOVE E-NE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE
WEAKENING WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO EASTERN-
CENTRAL MEXICO COASTAL WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE 1010 MB LOW IS E OF BELIZE NEAR 18N87W WITH ASSOCIATED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 21N86W TO THE LOW TO 15N87W. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IN THE FAR WESTERN BASIN ENHANCES MAINLY W OF 82W IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 20N W OF 83W. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AFFECTING THE ADJACENT WATERS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO.  FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM
ALOFT. A SLIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT FOR THE LOW TO DISSIPATE.
HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY CONTINUE
ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE NW BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH CONTINUES SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N59W TO
27N75W. TO THE E...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
28N45W. ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 23N42W. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO THE N ATLANTIC. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 21N BETWEEN 38W-49W. NEAR GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE OBSERVED E OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 41W-
45W. SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
FOR THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE NW N OF THE AREA
OF DISCUSSION. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200348
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 07N78W TO 10N85W TO 07N92W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE
A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH WIGGLES WESTWARD TO BEYOND 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N77W TO 06N81W...ALONG
THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N99W TO
07N118W WHERE THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY INCRESING TO ISOLATED
STRONG...AND ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 07.5N131W TO 07N135W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING SW FROM
32N111W ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS
AT 10N128W. UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA TO THE N OF 27N TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE
NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ENHANCED E OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 10N129W TO 16N116W. A PLUME OF
UPPER MOISTURE ORIGINATING WELL W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA STREAMS
E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 04-14N BETWEEN 140-125W...THEN
TURNS NE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH WITHIN ABOUT 330 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N125W TO 20N104W WHERE THE PLUME
NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES NE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM
THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS E OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IS RE-ENFORCING THE PLUME.

AT THE LOW LEVELS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS
N OF THE ITCZ W OF 115W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 28N140W TO
14N100W. NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS
BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT
NE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 08-20N W OF 132W. THE GRADIENT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE
20-25 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING E TO ALONG 120W. THE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE TRADES RELAXING
BELOW 20 KT LATE MON.

A COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING AS IT PASSES E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
WATERS N OF THE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH ONLY A W-NW 10 KT WIND SHIFT IS
OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT...LARGE POST-FRONTAL NW SWELLS HAVE
BUILT COMBINED SEAS UP TO 17 FT NEAR 30N135W. THIS LONG PERIOD
NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS ON SAT AFTERNOON...WITH 7-
10 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA ON SUN. THE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE WITH 6-8 FT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON
MON AND MON NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT ON TUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS S OF 28N.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND 15-20
KT ON SAT NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THE NEXT GALE EVENT
WILL BEGIN AROUND SUNRISE ON WED INCREASING TO NEAR STORM
STRENGTH ON WED NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY MON...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY TUE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-25 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...
THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT ON SUN...FURTHER DIMINISHING TO 15 KT
ON MON.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200348
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 07N78W TO 10N85W TO 07N92W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE
A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH WIGGLES WESTWARD TO BEYOND 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N77W TO 06N81W...ALONG
THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N99W TO
07N118W WHERE THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY INCRESING TO ISOLATED
STRONG...AND ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 07.5N131W TO 07N135W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING SW FROM
32N111W ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS
AT 10N128W. UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA TO THE N OF 27N TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE
NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ENHANCED E OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 10N129W TO 16N116W. A PLUME OF
UPPER MOISTURE ORIGINATING WELL W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA STREAMS
E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 04-14N BETWEEN 140-125W...THEN
TURNS NE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH WITHIN ABOUT 330 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N125W TO 20N104W WHERE THE PLUME
NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES NE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM
THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS E OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IS RE-ENFORCING THE PLUME.

AT THE LOW LEVELS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS
N OF THE ITCZ W OF 115W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 28N140W TO
14N100W. NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS
BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT
NE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 08-20N W OF 132W. THE GRADIENT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE
20-25 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING E TO ALONG 120W. THE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE TRADES RELAXING
BELOW 20 KT LATE MON.

A COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING AS IT PASSES E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
WATERS N OF THE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH ONLY A W-NW 10 KT WIND SHIFT IS
OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT...LARGE POST-FRONTAL NW SWELLS HAVE
BUILT COMBINED SEAS UP TO 17 FT NEAR 30N135W. THIS LONG PERIOD
NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS ON SAT AFTERNOON...WITH 7-
10 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA ON SUN. THE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE WITH 6-8 FT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON
MON AND MON NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT ON TUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS S OF 28N.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND 15-20
KT ON SAT NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THE NEXT GALE EVENT
WILL BEGIN AROUND SUNRISE ON WED INCREASING TO NEAR STORM
STRENGTH ON WED NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY MON...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY TUE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-25 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...
THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT ON SUN...FURTHER DIMINISHING TO 15 KT
ON MON.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200348
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 07N78W TO 10N85W TO 07N92W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE
A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH WIGGLES WESTWARD TO BEYOND 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N77W TO 06N81W...ALONG
THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N99W TO
07N118W WHERE THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY INCRESING TO ISOLATED
STRONG...AND ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 07.5N131W TO 07N135W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING SW FROM
32N111W ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS
AT 10N128W. UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA TO THE N OF 27N TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE
NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ENHANCED E OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 10N129W TO 16N116W. A PLUME OF
UPPER MOISTURE ORIGINATING WELL W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA STREAMS
E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 04-14N BETWEEN 140-125W...THEN
TURNS NE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH WITHIN ABOUT 330 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N125W TO 20N104W WHERE THE PLUME
NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES NE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM
THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS E OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IS RE-ENFORCING THE PLUME.

AT THE LOW LEVELS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS
N OF THE ITCZ W OF 115W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 28N140W TO
14N100W. NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS
BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT
NE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 08-20N W OF 132W. THE GRADIENT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE
20-25 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING E TO ALONG 120W. THE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE TRADES RELAXING
BELOW 20 KT LATE MON.

A COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING AS IT PASSES E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
WATERS N OF THE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH ONLY A W-NW 10 KT WIND SHIFT IS
OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT...LARGE POST-FRONTAL NW SWELLS HAVE
BUILT COMBINED SEAS UP TO 17 FT NEAR 30N135W. THIS LONG PERIOD
NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS ON SAT AFTERNOON...WITH 7-
10 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA ON SUN. THE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE WITH 6-8 FT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON
MON AND MON NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT ON TUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS S OF 28N.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND 15-20
KT ON SAT NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THE NEXT GALE EVENT
WILL BEGIN AROUND SUNRISE ON WED INCREASING TO NEAR STORM
STRENGTH ON WED NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY MON...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY TUE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-25 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...
THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT ON SUN...FURTHER DIMINISHING TO 15 KT
ON MON.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200348
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 07N78W TO 10N85W TO 07N92W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE
A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH WIGGLES WESTWARD TO BEYOND 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N77W TO 06N81W...ALONG
THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N99W TO
07N118W WHERE THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY INCRESING TO ISOLATED
STRONG...AND ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 07.5N131W TO 07N135W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING SW FROM
32N111W ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS
AT 10N128W. UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA TO THE N OF 27N TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE
NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ENHANCED E OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 10N129W TO 16N116W. A PLUME OF
UPPER MOISTURE ORIGINATING WELL W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA STREAMS
E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 04-14N BETWEEN 140-125W...THEN
TURNS NE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH WITHIN ABOUT 330 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N125W TO 20N104W WHERE THE PLUME
NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES NE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM
THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS E OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IS RE-ENFORCING THE PLUME.

AT THE LOW LEVELS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS
N OF THE ITCZ W OF 115W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 28N140W TO
14N100W. NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS
BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT
NE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 08-20N W OF 132W. THE GRADIENT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE
20-25 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING E TO ALONG 120W. THE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE TRADES RELAXING
BELOW 20 KT LATE MON.

A COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING AS IT PASSES E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
WATERS N OF THE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH ONLY A W-NW 10 KT WIND SHIFT IS
OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT...LARGE POST-FRONTAL NW SWELLS HAVE
BUILT COMBINED SEAS UP TO 17 FT NEAR 30N135W. THIS LONG PERIOD
NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS ON SAT AFTERNOON...WITH 7-
10 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA ON SUN. THE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE WITH 6-8 FT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON
MON AND MON NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT ON TUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS S OF 28N.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND 15-20
KT ON SAT NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THE NEXT GALE EVENT
WILL BEGIN AROUND SUNRISE ON WED INCREASING TO NEAR STORM
STRENGTH ON WED NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY MON...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY TUE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-25 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...
THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT ON SUN...FURTHER DIMINISHING TO 15 KT
ON MON.

$$
NELSON



000
AXNT20 KNHC 200003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THROUGH NORTHERN LIBERIA AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 07N12W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N26W TO 04N37W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N E OF 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL SW TO W FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN AND ADVECTS MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EPAC TO A GREAT
PORTION OF GULF WATERS. A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER SE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS NEAR 28N94W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO
SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 26N97W THEN CONTINUING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE LOW ALONG 28N90W TO
28N85W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
AND ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 26N
E OF 94W AND FOG ELSEWHERE W OF THE LOW. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
COVERING THE EASTERN U.S. BEING ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER
CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW OF 5-20 KT ACROSS THE
BASIN AND ADVECT DRY COOL AIR TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
WATERS. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF
PROMOTES FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...HIGH
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN MOVING NW IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE
LOW WILL TRACK E-NE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO EASTERN-CENTRAL MEXICO
COASTAL WATERS. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
TRANSITION INTO A STATIONARY FRONT. A LOW WILL REFORM OVER THE
NE BASIN BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE EASTERN PART OF THE FRONT
BECOMING A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE FOCUS ON THE CARIBBEAN IS A SURFACE 1011 MB LOW E OF BELIZE
NEAR 18N87W WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 21N85W TO THE
LOW TO 16N87W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE FAR WESTERN BASIN
ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF
16N W OF 80W. A MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVES ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN CARIBBEAN BEING ADVECTED FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THIS REGION OF THE BASIN...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO. FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN BEING SUPPORTED BY
DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. OTHERWISE...TRADES OF 15 KT
DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN...INCREASING TO 20 KT ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW INTO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT LINGERING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE NW
BASIN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. FAIR
WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RESUME BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALONG 33N53W SW TO 28N60W TO
26N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 55W-75W. OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC...A MIDDLE-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW OF 1014 MB NEAR 26N46W FROM WHICH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 25N43W TO 20N42W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW NORTHWARD ALONG 30N46W TO 37N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 400 NM OF THE LOW
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS OVER
THE EASTERN BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NW N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 200003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THROUGH NORTHERN LIBERIA AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 07N12W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N26W TO 04N37W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N E OF 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL SW TO W FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN AND ADVECTS MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EPAC TO A GREAT
PORTION OF GULF WATERS. A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER SE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS NEAR 28N94W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO
SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 26N97W THEN CONTINUING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE LOW ALONG 28N90W TO
28N85W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
AND ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 26N
E OF 94W AND FOG ELSEWHERE W OF THE LOW. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
COVERING THE EASTERN U.S. BEING ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER
CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW OF 5-20 KT ACROSS THE
BASIN AND ADVECT DRY COOL AIR TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
WATERS. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF
PROMOTES FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...HIGH
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN MOVING NW IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE
LOW WILL TRACK E-NE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO EASTERN-CENTRAL MEXICO
COASTAL WATERS. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
TRANSITION INTO A STATIONARY FRONT. A LOW WILL REFORM OVER THE
NE BASIN BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE EASTERN PART OF THE FRONT
BECOMING A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE FOCUS ON THE CARIBBEAN IS A SURFACE 1011 MB LOW E OF BELIZE
NEAR 18N87W WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 21N85W TO THE
LOW TO 16N87W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE FAR WESTERN BASIN
ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF
16N W OF 80W. A MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVES ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN CARIBBEAN BEING ADVECTED FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THIS REGION OF THE BASIN...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO. FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN BEING SUPPORTED BY
DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. OTHERWISE...TRADES OF 15 KT
DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN...INCREASING TO 20 KT ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW INTO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT LINGERING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE NW
BASIN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. FAIR
WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RESUME BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALONG 33N53W SW TO 28N60W TO
26N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 55W-75W. OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC...A MIDDLE-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW OF 1014 MB NEAR 26N46W FROM WHICH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 25N43W TO 20N42W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW NORTHWARD ALONG 30N46W TO 37N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 400 NM OF THE LOW
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS OVER
THE EASTERN BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NW N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192148
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 08N77W TO 08.5N85.5W...THEN TURNS SW TO 07N92W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH
WIGGLES WESTWARD TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N77W TO 06N80W...ALONG THE ITCZ
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06.5N97W TO
07N117W...AND ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 07N133W TO 06N140W.


...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING SW FROM
32N100W ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS
AT 11N131W. UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA TO THE N OF 28N...AND WILL MOVE E ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ENHANCED
E OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM
16N116W TO 10N110W TO 08N130W TO 16N116W. A PLUME OF UPPER
MOISTURE ORIGINATING WELL W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA STREAMS E
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 04-11N BETWEEN 140-125W...THEN
TURNS NE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH WITHIN ABOUT 330 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N125W TO 20N106W...THEN NARROWS AS
IT CONTINUES NE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...EVENTUALLY TURNING E
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. DEBRIS MOISTURE
FROM THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS E OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IS RE-ENFORCING THE PLUME.

AT THE LOW LEVELS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS
N OF THE ITCZ W OF 115W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 28N140W TO
15N100W. NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS
BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT
NE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 08-15N W OF 135W. THE GRADIENT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE
20-25 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING N TO ALONG 20N AND SPREADING E TO
ALONG 120W. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE TRADES RELAXING BELOW 20 KT LATE MON.

A COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING AS IT PASSES E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
WATERS N OF THE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH ONLY A W-NW 10 KT WIND SHIFT IS
OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT...LARGE POST-FRONTAL NW SWELLS HAVE
BUILT COMBINED SEAS UP TO 15 FT NEAR 29N139W. THIS LONG PERIOD
NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS ON SAT AFTERNOON...WITH 7-
10 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA ON SUN. THE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE WITH 6-8 FT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON
MON AND MON NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT ON TUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS S OF 28N.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND 15-20
KT ON SAT NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THE NEXT GALE EVENT
WILL BEGIN AROUND SUNRISE ON WED INCREASING TO NEAR STORM
STRENGTH ON WED NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY MON THEN 10-15 KT DRAINAGE EARLY TUE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
BRIEFLY TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT ON
SUN...FURTHER DIMINISHING TO 15 KT ON MON.

$$
NELSON



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192148
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 08N77W TO 08.5N85.5W...THEN TURNS SW TO 07N92W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH
WIGGLES WESTWARD TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N77W TO 06N80W...ALONG THE ITCZ
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06.5N97W TO
07N117W...AND ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 07N133W TO 06N140W.


...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING SW FROM
32N100W ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS
AT 11N131W. UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA TO THE N OF 28N...AND WILL MOVE E ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ENHANCED
E OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM
16N116W TO 10N110W TO 08N130W TO 16N116W. A PLUME OF UPPER
MOISTURE ORIGINATING WELL W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA STREAMS E
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 04-11N BETWEEN 140-125W...THEN
TURNS NE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH WITHIN ABOUT 330 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N125W TO 20N106W...THEN NARROWS AS
IT CONTINUES NE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...EVENTUALLY TURNING E
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. DEBRIS MOISTURE
FROM THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS E OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IS RE-ENFORCING THE PLUME.

AT THE LOW LEVELS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS
N OF THE ITCZ W OF 115W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 28N140W TO
15N100W. NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS
BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT
NE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 08-15N W OF 135W. THE GRADIENT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE
20-25 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING N TO ALONG 20N AND SPREADING E TO
ALONG 120W. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE TRADES RELAXING BELOW 20 KT LATE MON.

A COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING AS IT PASSES E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
WATERS N OF THE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH ONLY A W-NW 10 KT WIND SHIFT IS
OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT...LARGE POST-FRONTAL NW SWELLS HAVE
BUILT COMBINED SEAS UP TO 15 FT NEAR 29N139W. THIS LONG PERIOD
NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS ON SAT AFTERNOON...WITH 7-
10 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA ON SUN. THE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE WITH 6-8 FT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON
MON AND MON NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT ON TUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS S OF 28N.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND 15-20
KT ON SAT NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THE NEXT GALE EVENT
WILL BEGIN AROUND SUNRISE ON WED INCREASING TO NEAR STORM
STRENGTH ON WED NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY MON THEN 10-15 KT DRAINAGE EARLY TUE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
BRIEFLY TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT ON
SUN...FURTHER DIMINISHING TO 15 KT ON MON.

$$
NELSON


000
AXNT20 KNHC 191805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N12W TO 6N15W 5N25W 6N29W AND 4N37W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 9W AND 38W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 12N SOUTHWARD FROM 53W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING FROM KANSAS
TO OKLAHOMA...AND FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE FAR WEST/TEXAS
BIG BEND...AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS 28N86W 29N90W...TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST
NEAR 29N96W...TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
28N98W IN TEXAS. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 1013 MB LOW
CENTER 28N99W...AND NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 30N102W INTO WEST
TEXAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 28N TO
30N BETWEEN THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER TO 97W.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SHOWS UP IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY TO THE SOUTH OF 21N97W 24N90W...26N81W IN FLORIDA TO THE
SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. DRIER AIR ALSO IS REACHING THE TEXAS
GULF COASTAL WATERS NEAR 28N96W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KGVX...KXIH AND
KEHC AND KMDJ AND KDLP WITH VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS AND
FOG...KVAF...KVQT...KGRY...KATP...KEIR...KSPR...KIKT...KVOA...
KVKY...AND KMIS. KBBF IS REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 2 TO 3 MILES
AND FOG.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. RAIN IS
BEING REPORTED FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST NORTHWARD. THE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN ALSO COVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL
LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND PATCHY AREAS OF RAIN ARE IN
SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS IN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...AND IN
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PANAMA CITY WESTWARD. TALLAHASSEE
FLORIDA IS REPORTING A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
HONDURAS...TOWARD COZUMEL AND CANCUN ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 21N87W AT THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO...TO 17N85W...CURVING AROUND THE COASTS OF
EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...TO 9N83W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 11N NORTHWARD FROM 81W WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 8N85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF 13N84W 12N80W 10N76W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW...FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 77W EASTWARD. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/1200
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.26 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.08 IN
CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS PANAMA
NEAR 8N81W...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 11N SOUTHWARD FROM 77W WESTWARD. THE
SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH
REACHES 9N83W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WIND FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN
HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN BARAHONA...FROM SANTO DOMINGO
TO LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
IN SANTO DOMINGO...MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN LA ROMANA
AND IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS AR IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH A RIDGE
THAT RUNS FROM COLOMBIA...THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA...TO HONDURAS.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH
HISPANIOLA...RELATED TO AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N BEYOND 32N FROM 50W WESTWARD.

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 29N60W...
26N70W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS...TO
27N79W. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
DISSIPATING FRONT...PASSING THROUGH 32N63W TO 31N70W AND 31N76W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N51W 27N56W 25N60W 27N80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 26N45W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE CIRCULATION
CENTER FROM 13N TO 32N BETWEEN 37W AND 50W. A WARM FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N46W TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
26N45W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 1014 MB LOW CENTER TO
25N44W AND 20N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 46W FROM 26N TO 31N. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N TO 30N BETWEEN 38W AND
43W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN 43W AND 47W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 24N22W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE CIRCULATION
CENTER FROM THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N
BEYOND 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 25N30W 21N33W...AND TO
16N41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 191805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N12W TO 6N15W 5N25W 6N29W AND 4N37W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 9W AND 38W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 12N SOUTHWARD FROM 53W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING FROM KANSAS
TO OKLAHOMA...AND FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE FAR WEST/TEXAS
BIG BEND...AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS 28N86W 29N90W...TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST
NEAR 29N96W...TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
28N98W IN TEXAS. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 1013 MB LOW
CENTER 28N99W...AND NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 30N102W INTO WEST
TEXAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 28N TO
30N BETWEEN THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER TO 97W.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SHOWS UP IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY TO THE SOUTH OF 21N97W 24N90W...26N81W IN FLORIDA TO THE
SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. DRIER AIR ALSO IS REACHING THE TEXAS
GULF COASTAL WATERS NEAR 28N96W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KGVX...KXIH AND
KEHC AND KMDJ AND KDLP WITH VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS AND
FOG...KVAF...KVQT...KGRY...KATP...KEIR...KSPR...KIKT...KVOA...
KVKY...AND KMIS. KBBF IS REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 2 TO 3 MILES
AND FOG.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. RAIN IS
BEING REPORTED FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST NORTHWARD. THE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN ALSO COVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL
LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND PATCHY AREAS OF RAIN ARE IN
SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS IN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...AND IN
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PANAMA CITY WESTWARD. TALLAHASSEE
FLORIDA IS REPORTING A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
HONDURAS...TOWARD COZUMEL AND CANCUN ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 21N87W AT THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO...TO 17N85W...CURVING AROUND THE COASTS OF
EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...TO 9N83W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 11N NORTHWARD FROM 81W WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 8N85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF 13N84W 12N80W 10N76W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW...FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 77W EASTWARD. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/1200
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.26 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.08 IN
CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS PANAMA
NEAR 8N81W...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 11N SOUTHWARD FROM 77W WESTWARD. THE
SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH
REACHES 9N83W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WIND FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN
HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN BARAHONA...FROM SANTO DOMINGO
TO LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
IN SANTO DOMINGO...MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN LA ROMANA
AND IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS AR IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH A RIDGE
THAT RUNS FROM COLOMBIA...THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA...TO HONDURAS.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH
HISPANIOLA...RELATED TO AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N BEYOND 32N FROM 50W WESTWARD.

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 29N60W...
26N70W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS...TO
27N79W. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
DISSIPATING FRONT...PASSING THROUGH 32N63W TO 31N70W AND 31N76W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N51W 27N56W 25N60W 27N80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 26N45W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE CIRCULATION
CENTER FROM 13N TO 32N BETWEEN 37W AND 50W. A WARM FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N46W TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
26N45W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 1014 MB LOW CENTER TO
25N44W AND 20N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 46W FROM 26N TO 31N. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N TO 30N BETWEEN 38W AND
43W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN 43W AND 47W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 24N22W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE CIRCULATION
CENTER FROM THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N
BEYOND 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 25N30W 21N33W...AND TO
16N41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191606
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N74W TO 09N85W TO
06.5N91W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO
05N120W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240 NM N OF ITCZ W OF 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 28N143W EXTENDS A RIDGE E TO
28N122W THEN SE TO NEAR 15N102W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE S ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ
IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
ACROSS THE SW AND W CENTRAL WATERS W OF 120W...WHERE SEAS ARE
RUNNING GENERALLY 9 TO 12 FT WITH NW SWELL. A COLD FRONT IS
DRAGGING ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE RIDGE ALONG 30N ACROSS NW
PORTIONS THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD AND
GENERALLY REMAIN N OF 29N AND REACH 130W BY SAT MORNING...BEFORE
BECOMING DIFFUSE. THE TRADEWINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS NEW AND
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT.

AS THE NEW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS E AND SE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITHIN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE...AND WILL FRESHEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT ACROSS S PORTIONS TONIGHT
THROUGH SAT MORNING. WIND AND SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
MODESTLY AND CONTINUE 15-20 KT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LARGE NW SWELLS HAVE BEGUN TO ENTER NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND WILL RAISE SEAS TO 11-16 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING THE MAJORITY OF
THE WATERS W OF 95W-100W BY SAT MORNING. PEAK SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO 13 FT BY 48 HOURS WHILE SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WATERS W OF 110W THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS AS EARLY AS SAT
EVENING...WITH 7-10 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY EARLY SUN AND CONTINUING THROUGH
LATE MON BEFORE SUBSIDING.

OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIP
THE WATERS N OF 28N THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE IMPACT
OTHER THAN A BRIEF WINDSHIFT BEHIND EACH BOUNDARY.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A MAXIMUM OF 10-15 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS DURING NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY TONIGHT TO INCREASE
TO 20 TO 25 KT BY SUNRISE SAT MORNING...TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MAXIMIZING TO NEAR 30 KT EARLY SUN MORNING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY SUN EVENING.  THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE NEXT TEHUANTEPEC
GALE EVENT WILL OCCUR BY EARLY WED MORNING WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 40 KT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN 10-15 KT THROUGH WED.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191606
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N74W TO 09N85W TO
06.5N91W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO
05N120W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240 NM N OF ITCZ W OF 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 28N143W EXTENDS A RIDGE E TO
28N122W THEN SE TO NEAR 15N102W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE S ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ
IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
ACROSS THE SW AND W CENTRAL WATERS W OF 120W...WHERE SEAS ARE
RUNNING GENERALLY 9 TO 12 FT WITH NW SWELL. A COLD FRONT IS
DRAGGING ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE RIDGE ALONG 30N ACROSS NW
PORTIONS THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD AND
GENERALLY REMAIN N OF 29N AND REACH 130W BY SAT MORNING...BEFORE
BECOMING DIFFUSE. THE TRADEWINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS NEW AND
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT.

AS THE NEW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS E AND SE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITHIN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE...AND WILL FRESHEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT ACROSS S PORTIONS TONIGHT
THROUGH SAT MORNING. WIND AND SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
MODESTLY AND CONTINUE 15-20 KT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LARGE NW SWELLS HAVE BEGUN TO ENTER NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND WILL RAISE SEAS TO 11-16 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING THE MAJORITY OF
THE WATERS W OF 95W-100W BY SAT MORNING. PEAK SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO 13 FT BY 48 HOURS WHILE SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WATERS W OF 110W THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS AS EARLY AS SAT
EVENING...WITH 7-10 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY EARLY SUN AND CONTINUING THROUGH
LATE MON BEFORE SUBSIDING.

OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIP
THE WATERS N OF 28N THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE IMPACT
OTHER THAN A BRIEF WINDSHIFT BEHIND EACH BOUNDARY.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A MAXIMUM OF 10-15 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS DURING NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY TONIGHT TO INCREASE
TO 20 TO 25 KT BY SUNRISE SAT MORNING...TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MAXIMIZING TO NEAR 30 KT EARLY SUN MORNING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY SUN EVENING.  THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE NEXT TEHUANTEPEC
GALE EVENT WILL OCCUR BY EARLY WED MORNING WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 40 KT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN 10-15 KT THROUGH WED.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191606
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N74W TO 09N85W TO
06.5N91W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO
05N120W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240 NM N OF ITCZ W OF 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 28N143W EXTENDS A RIDGE E TO
28N122W THEN SE TO NEAR 15N102W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE S ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ
IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
ACROSS THE SW AND W CENTRAL WATERS W OF 120W...WHERE SEAS ARE
RUNNING GENERALLY 9 TO 12 FT WITH NW SWELL. A COLD FRONT IS
DRAGGING ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE RIDGE ALONG 30N ACROSS NW
PORTIONS THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD AND
GENERALLY REMAIN N OF 29N AND REACH 130W BY SAT MORNING...BEFORE
BECOMING DIFFUSE. THE TRADEWINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS NEW AND
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT.

AS THE NEW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS E AND SE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITHIN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE...AND WILL FRESHEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT ACROSS S PORTIONS TONIGHT
THROUGH SAT MORNING. WIND AND SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
MODESTLY AND CONTINUE 15-20 KT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LARGE NW SWELLS HAVE BEGUN TO ENTER NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND WILL RAISE SEAS TO 11-16 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING THE MAJORITY OF
THE WATERS W OF 95W-100W BY SAT MORNING. PEAK SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO 13 FT BY 48 HOURS WHILE SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WATERS W OF 110W THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS AS EARLY AS SAT
EVENING...WITH 7-10 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY EARLY SUN AND CONTINUING THROUGH
LATE MON BEFORE SUBSIDING.

OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIP
THE WATERS N OF 28N THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE IMPACT
OTHER THAN A BRIEF WINDSHIFT BEHIND EACH BOUNDARY.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A MAXIMUM OF 10-15 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS DURING NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY TONIGHT TO INCREASE
TO 20 TO 25 KT BY SUNRISE SAT MORNING...TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MAXIMIZING TO NEAR 30 KT EARLY SUN MORNING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY SUN EVENING.  THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE NEXT TEHUANTEPEC
GALE EVENT WILL OCCUR BY EARLY WED MORNING WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 40 KT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN 10-15 KT THROUGH WED.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXNT20 KNHC 191119
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N14W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 07N16W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N32W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-
08N E OF 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL SW TO W FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ADVECTING
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EPAC MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH MOISTURE ALOFT
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND N OF 24N...W OF 87W. A
1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER E CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. TO THE
N...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 28N96W TO 28N94W TO 27N92W.
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. ANCHORED
BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER W ILLINOIS EXTENDS SE INTO THE
NE GULF WATERS. RETURN FLOW OF 5-15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
RIDGE CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRY COOL AIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER
BASIN...SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES. OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND ENTER THE W GULF
WATERS ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BASIN EXTENDING FROM 20N85W TO
16N84W TO 11N83W. A HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDS ACROSS
THE NW BASIN W OF 79W...WHICH ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH ENHANCES
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 80W-87W. A
SMALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 67W AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO. THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THESE ISLANDS AND THEIR
ADJACENT WATERS. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
BASIN SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. TRADES OF 10-
15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY...HOWEVER LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT MAY STILL ENHANCE ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NW BASIN
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND PROMOTING FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY SATURDAY
INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. THE
FIRST FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N72W TO 37N57W THEN INTO THE N
ATLANTIC WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT. TO THE
E...ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 25N75W TO 32N58W TO 43N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS N OF 34N BETWEEN 46W-53W.
FURTHER E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 48W SUPPORTS A
1014 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N44W AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 21N46W. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS N FROM THIS LOW ALSO TO 44N28W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 19N-36N BETWEEN 36W-47W. A 1034 MB
HIGH CONTINUES NEAR 39N19W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E
ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT ACROSS
THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E WHILE WEAKENING. THE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE N ENHANCING CONVECTION WHILE THE
FRONTS ASSOCIATED TO IT WILL WEAKEN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 191119
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N14W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 07N16W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N32W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-
08N E OF 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL SW TO W FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ADVECTING
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EPAC MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH MOISTURE ALOFT
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND N OF 24N...W OF 87W. A
1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER E CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. TO THE
N...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 28N96W TO 28N94W TO 27N92W.
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. ANCHORED
BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER W ILLINOIS EXTENDS SE INTO THE
NE GULF WATERS. RETURN FLOW OF 5-15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
RIDGE CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRY COOL AIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER
BASIN...SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES. OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND ENTER THE W GULF
WATERS ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BASIN EXTENDING FROM 20N85W TO
16N84W TO 11N83W. A HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDS ACROSS
THE NW BASIN W OF 79W...WHICH ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH ENHANCES
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 80W-87W. A
SMALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 67W AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO. THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THESE ISLANDS AND THEIR
ADJACENT WATERS. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
BASIN SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. TRADES OF 10-
15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY...HOWEVER LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT MAY STILL ENHANCE ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NW BASIN
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND PROMOTING FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY SATURDAY
INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. THE
FIRST FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N72W TO 37N57W THEN INTO THE N
ATLANTIC WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT. TO THE
E...ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 25N75W TO 32N58W TO 43N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS N OF 34N BETWEEN 46W-53W.
FURTHER E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 48W SUPPORTS A
1014 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N44W AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 21N46W. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS N FROM THIS LOW ALSO TO 44N28W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 19N-36N BETWEEN 36W-47W. A 1034 MB
HIGH CONTINUES NEAR 39N19W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E
ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT ACROSS
THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E WHILE WEAKENING. THE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE N ENHANCING CONVECTION WHILE THE
FRONTS ASSOCIATED TO IT WILL WEAKEN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190924
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N78W TO 08N86W TO 07N93W.
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM  07N93W TO 06N114W TO 07N130W TO
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05.5N TO 07N
BETWEEN 126W AND 130W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM N OF A LINE FROM
10N120W TO 10N125W TO 07N130W.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NW OF A LINE FROM
15N114W TO 12N120W UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AT 1025 MB NEAR 28N125W EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE SE
TO NEAR 19N109W AND ALSO WSW TO NEAR 26N140W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE S
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS. THESE
TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS NEW AND STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA.

LARGE NW SWELLS UP TO 17 FT WILL BREACH 30N140W IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING THE MAJORITY
OF THE WATERS W OF 95W-100W. PEAK SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 13 FT BY
48 HOURS WHILE SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WATERS W OF 110W THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS AS EARLY AS SAT
EVENING...WITH 7-10 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY EARLY SUN AND CONTINUING THROUGH
LATE MON BEFORE SUBSIDING.

OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIP
THE WATERS N OF 28N THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE IMPACT
OTHER THAN A BRIEF WINDSHIFT BEHIND EACH BOUNDARY.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A MAXIMUM OF 10-15 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS DURING NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH TUE NIGHT...WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE NEXT GALE EVENT BY EARLY WED
MORNING WITH WINDS UP TO 40 KT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN 10-15 KT THROUGH WED.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW-N 10-20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUE NIGHT SUPPORTED BY A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
...DIMINISHING TO 5-15 KT THEREAFTER.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190924
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N78W TO 08N86W TO 07N93W.
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM  07N93W TO 06N114W TO 07N130W TO
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05.5N TO 07N
BETWEEN 126W AND 130W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM N OF A LINE FROM
10N120W TO 10N125W TO 07N130W.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NW OF A LINE FROM
15N114W TO 12N120W UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AT 1025 MB NEAR 28N125W EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE SE
TO NEAR 19N109W AND ALSO WSW TO NEAR 26N140W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE S
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS. THESE
TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS NEW AND STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA.

LARGE NW SWELLS UP TO 17 FT WILL BREACH 30N140W IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING THE MAJORITY
OF THE WATERS W OF 95W-100W. PEAK SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 13 FT BY
48 HOURS WHILE SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WATERS W OF 110W THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS AS EARLY AS SAT
EVENING...WITH 7-10 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY EARLY SUN AND CONTINUING THROUGH
LATE MON BEFORE SUBSIDING.

OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIP
THE WATERS N OF 28N THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE IMPACT
OTHER THAN A BRIEF WINDSHIFT BEHIND EACH BOUNDARY.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A MAXIMUM OF 10-15 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS DURING NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH TUE NIGHT...WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE NEXT GALE EVENT BY EARLY WED
MORNING WITH WINDS UP TO 40 KT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN 10-15 KT THROUGH WED.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW-N 10-20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUE NIGHT SUPPORTED BY A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
...DIMINISHING TO 5-15 KT THEREAFTER.

$$
LEWITSKY


000
AXNT20 KNHC 190537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 07N16W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 04N34W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-
07N E OF 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL SW TO W FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ADVECTING
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EPAC MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS. A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW CONTINUES OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS FROM
WHICH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 29N95W TO 29N94W TO
25N86W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
ALONG WITH MOISTURE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND N OF 26N...W OF 89W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER NORTHERN IOWA
EXTENDS SE INTO THE NE GULF WATERS. RETURN FLOW OF 5-15 KT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRY COOL AIR
ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN...SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL
MOVE E-NE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI SW TO EASTERN
MEXICO COASTAL WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BASIN EXTENDING FROM 20N84W TO
16N84W TO 13N83W. A HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDS ACROSS
THE NW BASIN W OF 79W...WHICH ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH ENHANCES
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 81W-86W. A
SMALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 67W AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO. THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THESE ISLANDS AND THEIR
ADJACENT WATERS. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
BASIN SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. TRADES OF 15
KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER LINGERING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY STILL ENHANCE ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THE NW BASIN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND PROMOTING FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY SATURDAY
INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. THE
FIRST FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N80W TO 36N62W THEN INTO THE N
ATLANTIC WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT. TO THE
E...ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 26N75W TO 34N56W TO 46N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS N OF 34N BETWEEN 51W-56W.
FURTHER E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 50W SUPPORTS A
1015 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N46W AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 21N47W. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS N FROM THIS LOW ALSO TO 43N29W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 20N-33N BETWEEN 36W-46W. A 1036 MB
HIGH IS NEAR 39N19W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E
ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT ACROSS
THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E WHILE WEAKENING. THE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NW ENHANCING CONVECTION WHILE THE
FRONTS ASSOCIATED TO IT WILL WEAKEN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190331
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AT
05N77W TO 07N85W...THEN TURNS SW TO 07N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH WIGGLES W TO 05N117W TO
07N130W AND CONTINUES BEYOND 05N140W. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 150 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ITCZ BETWEEN 77-127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 126-133W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING S FROM
32N108W TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 10N137W. SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA FROM 32N131W TO 21N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ENHANCED SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE ITCZ WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N127W TO 17N112W. A DENSE
TROPICAL PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE THAT ORIGINATED FROM ITCZ
CONVECTION BETWEEN 130-170W...CONTINUES TO STREAM NE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
07N127W TO 23N107W CONTINUING NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...EVENTUALLY
TURNING E ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. DEBRIS
MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS E OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IS RE-ENFORCING THE PLUME.

AT THE LOW LEVELS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS W
OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 00N105W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
28N140W TO 15N98W WITH A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PASS QUICKLY E
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE RIDGE ON FRI-SAT. ALTHOUGH EXPECTING ONLY
A W-NW 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE FRONT...LARGE POST-FRONTAL NW
SWELLS WILL DRIVE COMBINED SEAS UP TO 17 FT NEAR 30N138W ON FRI AND
NEAR 30N128W ON SAT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS AS
EARLY AS SAT EVENING...WITH 7-10 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY EARLY SUN AND CONTINUING
THROUGH LATE MON BEFORE SUBSIDING.

NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE
ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM 10-17N W OF 130W. THE GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS
SPREADING BOTH NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THE NEXT GALE EVENT WILL OCCUR LATE TUE
NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY SUN THEN 10-15 KT DRAINAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...10-15 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT BY EARLY FRI...AND THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15 KT ON MON.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190331
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AT
05N77W TO 07N85W...THEN TURNS SW TO 07N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH WIGGLES W TO 05N117W TO
07N130W AND CONTINUES BEYOND 05N140W. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 150 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ITCZ BETWEEN 77-127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 126-133W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING S FROM
32N108W TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 10N137W. SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA FROM 32N131W TO 21N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ENHANCED SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE ITCZ WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N127W TO 17N112W. A DENSE
TROPICAL PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE THAT ORIGINATED FROM ITCZ
CONVECTION BETWEEN 130-170W...CONTINUES TO STREAM NE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
07N127W TO 23N107W CONTINUING NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...EVENTUALLY
TURNING E ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. DEBRIS
MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS E OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IS RE-ENFORCING THE PLUME.

AT THE LOW LEVELS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS W
OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 00N105W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
28N140W TO 15N98W WITH A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PASS QUICKLY E
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE RIDGE ON FRI-SAT. ALTHOUGH EXPECTING ONLY
A W-NW 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE FRONT...LARGE POST-FRONTAL NW
SWELLS WILL DRIVE COMBINED SEAS UP TO 17 FT NEAR 30N138W ON FRI AND
NEAR 30N128W ON SAT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS AS
EARLY AS SAT EVENING...WITH 7-10 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY EARLY SUN AND CONTINUING
THROUGH LATE MON BEFORE SUBSIDING.

NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE
ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM 10-17N W OF 130W. THE GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS
SPREADING BOTH NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THE NEXT GALE EVENT WILL OCCUR LATE TUE
NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY SUN THEN 10-15 KT DRAINAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...10-15 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT BY EARLY FRI...AND THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15 KT ON MON.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190331
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AT
05N77W TO 07N85W...THEN TURNS SW TO 07N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH WIGGLES W TO 05N117W TO
07N130W AND CONTINUES BEYOND 05N140W. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 150 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ITCZ BETWEEN 77-127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 126-133W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING S FROM
32N108W TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 10N137W. SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA FROM 32N131W TO 21N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ENHANCED SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE ITCZ WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N127W TO 17N112W. A DENSE
TROPICAL PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE THAT ORIGINATED FROM ITCZ
CONVECTION BETWEEN 130-170W...CONTINUES TO STREAM NE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
07N127W TO 23N107W CONTINUING NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...EVENTUALLY
TURNING E ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. DEBRIS
MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS E OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IS RE-ENFORCING THE PLUME.

AT THE LOW LEVELS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS W
OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 00N105W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
28N140W TO 15N98W WITH A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PASS QUICKLY E
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE RIDGE ON FRI-SAT. ALTHOUGH EXPECTING ONLY
A W-NW 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE FRONT...LARGE POST-FRONTAL NW
SWELLS WILL DRIVE COMBINED SEAS UP TO 17 FT NEAR 30N138W ON FRI AND
NEAR 30N128W ON SAT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS AS
EARLY AS SAT EVENING...WITH 7-10 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY EARLY SUN AND CONTINUING
THROUGH LATE MON BEFORE SUBSIDING.

NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE
ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM 10-17N W OF 130W. THE GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS
SPREADING BOTH NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THE NEXT GALE EVENT WILL OCCUR LATE TUE
NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY SUN THEN 10-15 KT DRAINAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...10-15 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT BY EARLY FRI...AND THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15 KT ON MON.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190331
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AT
05N77W TO 07N85W...THEN TURNS SW TO 07N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH WIGGLES W TO 05N117W TO
07N130W AND CONTINUES BEYOND 05N140W. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 150 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ITCZ BETWEEN 77-127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 126-133W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING S FROM
32N108W TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 10N137W. SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA FROM 32N131W TO 21N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ENHANCED SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE ITCZ WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N127W TO 17N112W. A DENSE
TROPICAL PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE THAT ORIGINATED FROM ITCZ
CONVECTION BETWEEN 130-170W...CONTINUES TO STREAM NE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
07N127W TO 23N107W CONTINUING NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...EVENTUALLY
TURNING E ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. DEBRIS
MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS E OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IS RE-ENFORCING THE PLUME.

AT THE LOW LEVELS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS W
OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 00N105W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
28N140W TO 15N98W WITH A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PASS QUICKLY E
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE RIDGE ON FRI-SAT. ALTHOUGH EXPECTING ONLY
A W-NW 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE FRONT...LARGE POST-FRONTAL NW
SWELLS WILL DRIVE COMBINED SEAS UP TO 17 FT NEAR 30N138W ON FRI AND
NEAR 30N128W ON SAT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS AS
EARLY AS SAT EVENING...WITH 7-10 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY EARLY SUN AND CONTINUING
THROUGH LATE MON BEFORE SUBSIDING.

NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE
ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM 10-17N W OF 130W. THE GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS
SPREADING BOTH NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THE NEXT GALE EVENT WILL OCCUR LATE TUE
NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY SUN THEN 10-15 KT DRAINAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...10-15 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT BY EARLY FRI...AND THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15 KT ON MON.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190331
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AT
05N77W TO 07N85W...THEN TURNS SW TO 07N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH WIGGLES W TO 05N117W TO
07N130W AND CONTINUES BEYOND 05N140W. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 150 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ITCZ BETWEEN 77-127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 126-133W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING S FROM
32N108W TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 10N137W. SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA FROM 32N131W TO 21N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ENHANCED SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE ITCZ WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N127W TO 17N112W. A DENSE
TROPICAL PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE THAT ORIGINATED FROM ITCZ
CONVECTION BETWEEN 130-170W...CONTINUES TO STREAM NE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
07N127W TO 23N107W CONTINUING NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...EVENTUALLY
TURNING E ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. DEBRIS
MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS E OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IS RE-ENFORCING THE PLUME.

AT THE LOW LEVELS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS W
OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 00N105W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
28N140W TO 15N98W WITH A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PASS QUICKLY E
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE RIDGE ON FRI-SAT. ALTHOUGH EXPECTING ONLY
A W-NW 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE FRONT...LARGE POST-FRONTAL NW
SWELLS WILL DRIVE COMBINED SEAS UP TO 17 FT NEAR 30N138W ON FRI AND
NEAR 30N128W ON SAT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS AS
EARLY AS SAT EVENING...WITH 7-10 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY EARLY SUN AND CONTINUING
THROUGH LATE MON BEFORE SUBSIDING.

NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE
ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM 10-17N W OF 130W. THE GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS
SPREADING BOTH NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THE NEXT GALE EVENT WILL OCCUR LATE TUE
NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY SUN THEN 10-15 KT DRAINAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...10-15 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT BY EARLY FRI...AND THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15 KT ON MON.

$$
NELSON


000
AXNT20 KNHC 190004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 07N15W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 04N32W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N
E OF 16W AND FROM 01N-06N W OF 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL SW TO W FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE BASIN AND
CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EPAC TO THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN
TEXAS FROM WHICH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 29N95W SE TO
27N91W TO 25N86W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW ALONG WITH MOISTURE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N W OF 90W. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. BEING ANCHORED BY A
1028 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS EXTENDS SE INTO THE NE GULF
WATERS. RETURN FLOW OF 5-15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRY COOL AIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER
BASIN...WHICH ALONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT PROMOTE FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL TRACK E-NE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI SW TO EASTERN-CENTRAL MEXICO COASTAL WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE FOCUS ON THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS TO BE A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN BASIN EXTENDING FROM 20N84W TO 15N83W TO 11N82W. A
PLUME OF HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE NW BASIN NEAR
20N85W SE TO 13N67W...WHICH CONVERGES ALONG THE NORTHERN TROUGH
TO ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM
15N-21N BETWEEN 80W-86W. ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE IS ENTERING
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BEING ADVECTED FROM AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS MOISTURE IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PUERTO
RICO AND COASTAL WATERS. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE BASIN BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN. THE
SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW BASIN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

BOTH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRY
AIR ACROSS THE ISLAND WHICH HAVE STABILIZED THE ENVIRONMENT AND
IS PROMOTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...THEN A MOIST AIRMASS MOVES
ACROSS THE ISLAND TO ENHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
AND ENTER THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG 30N62W SW TO 28N67W TO
26N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. SE OF THE FRONT...A 1019 MB HIGH IS NEAR
26N64W WHICH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A MIDDLE-LEVEL CYCLONE SUPPORTS A
SURFACE LOW OF 1014 MB NEAR 24N46W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS ALONG 22N45W TO 20N47W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW NORTHWARD ALONG 28N44W TO 32N42W TO 42N30W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 21N BETWEEN 36W-
47W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE NW WHILE THE FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DISSIPATE.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL EXIT THE SE CONUS AND WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 190004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 07N15W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 04N32W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N
E OF 16W AND FROM 01N-06N W OF 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL SW TO W FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE BASIN AND
CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EPAC TO THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN
TEXAS FROM WHICH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 29N95W SE TO
27N91W TO 25N86W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW ALONG WITH MOISTURE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N W OF 90W. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. BEING ANCHORED BY A
1028 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS EXTENDS SE INTO THE NE GULF
WATERS. RETURN FLOW OF 5-15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRY COOL AIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER
BASIN...WHICH ALONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT PROMOTE FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL TRACK E-NE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI SW TO EASTERN-CENTRAL MEXICO COASTAL WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE FOCUS ON THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS TO BE A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN BASIN EXTENDING FROM 20N84W TO 15N83W TO 11N82W. A
PLUME OF HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE NW BASIN NEAR
20N85W SE TO 13N67W...WHICH CONVERGES ALONG THE NORTHERN TROUGH
TO ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM
15N-21N BETWEEN 80W-86W. ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE IS ENTERING
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BEING ADVECTED FROM AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS MOISTURE IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PUERTO
RICO AND COASTAL WATERS. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE BASIN BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN. THE
SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW BASIN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

BOTH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRY
AIR ACROSS THE ISLAND WHICH HAVE STABILIZED THE ENVIRONMENT AND
IS PROMOTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...THEN A MOIST AIRMASS MOVES
ACROSS THE ISLAND TO ENHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
AND ENTER THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG 30N62W SW TO 28N67W TO
26N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. SE OF THE FRONT...A 1019 MB HIGH IS NEAR
26N64W WHICH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A MIDDLE-LEVEL CYCLONE SUPPORTS A
SURFACE LOW OF 1014 MB NEAR 24N46W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS ALONG 22N45W TO 20N47W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW NORTHWARD ALONG 28N44W TO 32N42W TO 42N30W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 21N BETWEEN 36W-
47W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE NW WHILE THE FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DISSIPATE.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL EXIT THE SE CONUS AND WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 190004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 07N15W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 04N32W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N
E OF 16W AND FROM 01N-06N W OF 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL SW TO W FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE BASIN AND
CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EPAC TO THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN
TEXAS FROM WHICH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 29N95W SE TO
27N91W TO 25N86W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW ALONG WITH MOISTURE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N W OF 90W. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. BEING ANCHORED BY A
1028 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS EXTENDS SE INTO THE NE GULF
WATERS. RETURN FLOW OF 5-15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRY COOL AIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER
BASIN...WHICH ALONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT PROMOTE FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL TRACK E-NE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI SW TO EASTERN-CENTRAL MEXICO COASTAL WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE FOCUS ON THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS TO BE A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN BASIN EXTENDING FROM 20N84W TO 15N83W TO 11N82W. A
PLUME OF HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE NW BASIN NEAR
20N85W SE TO 13N67W...WHICH CONVERGES ALONG THE NORTHERN TROUGH
TO ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM
15N-21N BETWEEN 80W-86W. ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE IS ENTERING
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BEING ADVECTED FROM AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS MOISTURE IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PUERTO
RICO AND COASTAL WATERS. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE BASIN BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN. THE
SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW BASIN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

BOTH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRY
AIR ACROSS THE ISLAND WHICH HAVE STABILIZED THE ENVIRONMENT AND
IS PROMOTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...THEN A MOIST AIRMASS MOVES
ACROSS THE ISLAND TO ENHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
AND ENTER THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG 30N62W SW TO 28N67W TO
26N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. SE OF THE FRONT...A 1019 MB HIGH IS NEAR
26N64W WHICH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A MIDDLE-LEVEL CYCLONE SUPPORTS A
SURFACE LOW OF 1014 MB NEAR 24N46W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS ALONG 22N45W TO 20N47W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW NORTHWARD ALONG 28N44W TO 32N42W TO 42N30W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 21N BETWEEN 36W-
47W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE NW WHILE THE FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DISSIPATE.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL EXIT THE SE CONUS AND WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 190004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 07N15W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 04N32W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N
E OF 16W AND FROM 01N-06N W OF 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL SW TO W FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE BASIN AND
CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EPAC TO THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN
TEXAS FROM WHICH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 29N95W SE TO
27N91W TO 25N86W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW ALONG WITH MOISTURE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N W OF 90W. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. BEING ANCHORED BY A
1028 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS EXTENDS SE INTO THE NE GULF
WATERS. RETURN FLOW OF 5-15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRY COOL AIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER
BASIN...WHICH ALONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT PROMOTE FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL TRACK E-NE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI SW TO EASTERN-CENTRAL MEXICO COASTAL WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE FOCUS ON THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS TO BE A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN BASIN EXTENDING FROM 20N84W TO 15N83W TO 11N82W. A
PLUME OF HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE NW BASIN NEAR
20N85W SE TO 13N67W...WHICH CONVERGES ALONG THE NORTHERN TROUGH
TO ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM
15N-21N BETWEEN 80W-86W. ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE IS ENTERING
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BEING ADVECTED FROM AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS MOISTURE IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PUERTO
RICO AND COASTAL WATERS. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE BASIN BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN. THE
SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW BASIN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

BOTH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRY
AIR ACROSS THE ISLAND WHICH HAVE STABILIZED THE ENVIRONMENT AND
IS PROMOTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...THEN A MOIST AIRMASS MOVES
ACROSS THE ISLAND TO ENHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
AND ENTER THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG 30N62W SW TO 28N67W TO
26N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. SE OF THE FRONT...A 1019 MB HIGH IS NEAR
26N64W WHICH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A MIDDLE-LEVEL CYCLONE SUPPORTS A
SURFACE LOW OF 1014 MB NEAR 24N46W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS ALONG 22N45W TO 20N47W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW NORTHWARD ALONG 28N44W TO 32N42W TO 42N30W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 21N BETWEEN 36W-
47W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE NW WHILE THE FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DISSIPATE.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL EXIT THE SE CONUS AND WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182147
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 06N77W TO 06N91W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH WIGGLES W BETWEEN 04-06N TO BEYOND
140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04.5N77W
TO 07N86W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AND MOVED E OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS CURRENTLY
EXTENDING S FROM 32N110W TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT
10N138W. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING E INTO
THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ENHANCED E OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N135W TO 11N121W TO 20N111W. A DENSE
TROPICAL PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE THAT ORIGINATED FROM ITCZ
CONVECTION BETWEEN 130-170W...CONTINUES TO STREAM NE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
07N136W TO ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...EVENTUALLY TURNING E ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS RE-
ENFORCING THE PLUME.

AT THE LOW LEVELS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS
W OF 100W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 28N140W TO 15N98W WITH A
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PASS E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE RIDGE.
ALTHOUGH EXPECTING ONLY A W-NW 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE
FRONT...LARGE POST-FRONTAL NW SWELLS WILL DRIVE COMBINED SEAS UP
TO 17 FT NEAR 30N138W ON FRI. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL
ARRIVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM
OF 8-12 FT SEAS AS EARLY AS SAT EVENING...WITH 7-10 FT SEAS
EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY
EARLY SUN.

NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE
ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 10-15N W OF 135W. THE GRADIENT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE 20-25 KT
CONDITIONS SPREADING BOTH NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THE NEXT GALE EVENT WILL OCCUR LATE TUE
NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY SUN THEN 10-15 KT DRAINAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...10-15 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT BY EARLY FRI...AND THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15 KT ON MON.

$$
NELSON


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182147
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
AT 06N77W TO 06N91W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH WIGGLES W BETWEEN 04-06N TO BEYOND
140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04.5N77W
TO 07N86W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AND MOVED E OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS CURRENTLY
EXTENDING S FROM 32N110W TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT
10N138W. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING E INTO
THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ENHANCED E OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N135W TO 11N121W TO 20N111W. A DENSE
TROPICAL PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE THAT ORIGINATED FROM ITCZ
CONVECTION BETWEEN 130-170W...CONTINUES TO STREAM NE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
07N136W TO ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...EVENTUALLY TURNING E ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS RE-
ENFORCING THE PLUME.

AT THE LOW LEVELS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS
W OF 100W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 28N140W TO 15N98W WITH A
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PASS E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE RIDGE.
ALTHOUGH EXPECTING ONLY A W-NW 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE
FRONT...LARGE POST-FRONTAL NW SWELLS WILL DRIVE COMBINED SEAS UP
TO 17 FT NEAR 30N138W ON FRI. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL
ARRIVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM
OF 8-12 FT SEAS AS EARLY AS SAT EVENING...WITH 7-10 FT SEAS
EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY
EARLY SUN.

NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE
ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 10-15N W OF 135W. THE GRADIENT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE 20-25 KT
CONDITIONS SPREADING BOTH NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THE NEXT GALE EVENT WILL OCCUR LATE TUE
NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY SUN THEN 10-15 KT DRAINAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...10-15 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT BY EARLY FRI...AND THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15 KT ON MON.

$$
NELSON



000
AXNT20 KNHC 181704
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N14W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 05N14W AND CONTINUES TO 05N24W TO 04N35W TO 05N45W TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 22W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WARM FRONT CROSSES INTO THE GULF FROM THE TX COAST NEAR 29N95W
AND CONTINUES TO 28N91W TO 26N87W. THE FRONT THEN TRANSITIONS TO
A STATIONARY FRONT AND CONTINUES FROM 26N87W TO 26N81W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE WARM
FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. S
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE S OF THE FRONTS E OF 90W. S TO SE WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE S OF THE FRONTS W OF 90W. NE WINDS OF 10 TO
15 KT ARE N OF THE WARM FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KT ARE N
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS A LOW OVER S
TEXAS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE N GULF...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SW OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN BASIN AND A WARM/STATIONARY
FRONT E OF THE LOW IN THE NE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N83W TO 10N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 76W TO 85W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 13N WITHIN
75 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO N OF THE
TROUGH AXIS INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND ISLA DE PINOS. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 15N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES
INCLUDING E CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WEST
AS THE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
MOIST NE FLOW ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE ISLAND UNDER MOIST NE LOW LEVEL FLOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 60W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC TO 31N65W TO 28N70W TO 26N77W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT AND CONTINUES ACROSS
S FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE
COLD FRONT. FARTHER EAST...A 1015 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
CENTERED NEAR 24N47W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S OF THE LOW TO
19N47W AND THEN SW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N62W. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NE OF THE LOW TO 31N42W AND THEN OVER
THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF
THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N TO 31N
BETWEEN 38W AND 48W. A 1036 MB AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED E OF THE AZORES DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NW
WHILE THE FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DISSIPATE. CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT
THE SE CONUS AND WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 181704
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N14W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 05N14W AND CONTINUES TO 05N24W TO 04N35W TO 05N45W TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 22W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WARM FRONT CROSSES INTO THE GULF FROM THE TX COAST NEAR 29N95W
AND CONTINUES TO 28N91W TO 26N87W. THE FRONT THEN TRANSITIONS TO
A STATIONARY FRONT AND CONTINUES FROM 26N87W TO 26N81W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE WARM
FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. S
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE S OF THE FRONTS E OF 90W. S TO SE WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE S OF THE FRONTS W OF 90W. NE WINDS OF 10 TO
15 KT ARE N OF THE WARM FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KT ARE N
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS A LOW OVER S
TEXAS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE N GULF...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SW OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN BASIN AND A WARM/STATIONARY
FRONT E OF THE LOW IN THE NE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N83W TO 10N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 76W TO 85W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 13N WITHIN
75 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO N OF THE
TROUGH AXIS INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND ISLA DE PINOS. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 15N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES
INCLUDING E CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WEST
AS THE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
MOIST NE FLOW ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE ISLAND UNDER MOIST NE LOW LEVEL FLOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 60W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC TO 31N65W TO 28N70W TO 26N77W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT AND CONTINUES ACROSS
S FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE
COLD FRONT. FARTHER EAST...A 1015 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
CENTERED NEAR 24N47W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S OF THE LOW TO
19N47W AND THEN SW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N62W. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NE OF THE LOW TO 31N42W AND THEN OVER
THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF
THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N TO 31N
BETWEEN 38W AND 48W. A 1036 MB AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED E OF THE AZORES DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NW
WHILE THE FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DISSIPATE. CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT
THE SE CONUS AND WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181540
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 6N78W TO 6N91W. ITCZ FROM 6N91W TO 6N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS FROM 78W-
81W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE FAR W PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...WITH AXIS FROM 32N127W TO 22N140W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS FROM
15M-30N W OF 125W. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW
MEXICO ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA TO 14N135W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 550 NM SE OF THE
TROUGH. A 100-125 KT JETSTREAM SE OF TROUGH AXIS IS FROM 22N115W
ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.

SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N
OF 15N W OF 115W. ELY TRADE WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE FROM 9N-15N W OF 135W AT 20-25 KT. THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9-14 FT
IN NW SWELL N OF 28N W OF 135W FRI...WITH SEAS 9-10 FT IN MIXED
NW AND NE SWELL ELSEWHERE N OF 8N W OF 115W.

$$
DGS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181540
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 6N78W TO 6N91W. ITCZ FROM 6N91W TO 6N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS FROM 78W-
81W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE FAR W PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...WITH AXIS FROM 32N127W TO 22N140W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS FROM
15M-30N W OF 125W. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW
MEXICO ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA TO 14N135W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 550 NM SE OF THE
TROUGH. A 100-125 KT JETSTREAM SE OF TROUGH AXIS IS FROM 22N115W
ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.

SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N
OF 15N W OF 115W. ELY TRADE WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE FROM 9N-15N W OF 135W AT 20-25 KT. THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9-14 FT
IN NW SWELL N OF 28N W OF 135W FRI...WITH SEAS 9-10 FT IN MIXED
NW AND NE SWELL ELSEWHERE N OF 8N W OF 115W.

$$
DGS



000
AXNT20 KNHC 181102
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N13W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 05N13W AND CONTINUES TO 06N22W TO 04N31W TO 06N41W TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 19W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE BASIN. IT STARTS AS A WARM FRONT
FROM A 1016 MB LOW CENTERED OVER S TEXAS TO 29N95W TO 25N90W. A
STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM 25N90W TO 26N86W. THEN A COLD FRONT
STARTS FROM 26N86W TO 26N82W THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE ATLANTIC. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
BEHIND THE STATIONARY FRONT AFFECTING THE N GULF WATERS N OF 27N
BETWEEN 83W-92W. 05-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE
BASIN EXCEPT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NW GULF WHERE 15-
20 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
PREVAILS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 94W. UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE S
GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO WEAKEN WHILE
BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT
16N62W TO 15N77W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER SECTION OF ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF JAMAICA FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 75W-79W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 13N AND W OF 80W. AT UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO WEAKEN EVEN MORE WHILE BECOMING STATIONARY.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 60W IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE E GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE W ATLANTIC 26N80W TO 30N67W TO 43N61W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE
E...A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N53W. A 1014 MB
SURFACE LOW IS NOTED NEAR 25N47W. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WITH AXIS ALONG 48W SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IT STARTS AS A COLD FRONT FROM 16N61W TO
24N45W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 24N45W TO 40N35W. THEN A
COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT INTO THE N ATLANTIC.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THESE
BOUNDARIES N OF 20N BETWEEN 37W-47W. A LARGE 1033 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED E OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N20W. EXPECT THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHILE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 181102
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N13W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 05N13W AND CONTINUES TO 06N22W TO 04N31W TO 06N41W TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 19W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE BASIN. IT STARTS AS A WARM FRONT
FROM A 1016 MB LOW CENTERED OVER S TEXAS TO 29N95W TO 25N90W. A
STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM 25N90W TO 26N86W. THEN A COLD FRONT
STARTS FROM 26N86W TO 26N82W THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE ATLANTIC. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
BEHIND THE STATIONARY FRONT AFFECTING THE N GULF WATERS N OF 27N
BETWEEN 83W-92W. 05-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE
BASIN EXCEPT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NW GULF WHERE 15-
20 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
PREVAILS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 94W. UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE S
GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO WEAKEN WHILE
BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT
16N62W TO 15N77W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER SECTION OF ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF JAMAICA FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 75W-79W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 13N AND W OF 80W. AT UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO WEAKEN EVEN MORE WHILE BECOMING STATIONARY.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 60W IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE E GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE W ATLANTIC 26N80W TO 30N67W TO 43N61W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE
E...A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N53W. A 1014 MB
SURFACE LOW IS NOTED NEAR 25N47W. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WITH AXIS ALONG 48W SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IT STARTS AS A COLD FRONT FROM 16N61W TO
24N45W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 24N45W TO 40N35W. THEN A
COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT INTO THE N ATLANTIC.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THESE
BOUNDARIES N OF 20N BETWEEN 37W-47W. A LARGE 1033 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED E OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N20W. EXPECT THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHILE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 181102
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N13W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 05N13W AND CONTINUES TO 06N22W TO 04N31W TO 06N41W TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 19W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE BASIN. IT STARTS AS A WARM FRONT
FROM A 1016 MB LOW CENTERED OVER S TEXAS TO 29N95W TO 25N90W. A
STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM 25N90W TO 26N86W. THEN A COLD FRONT
STARTS FROM 26N86W TO 26N82W THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE ATLANTIC. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
BEHIND THE STATIONARY FRONT AFFECTING THE N GULF WATERS N OF 27N
BETWEEN 83W-92W. 05-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE
BASIN EXCEPT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NW GULF WHERE 15-
20 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
PREVAILS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 94W. UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE S
GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO WEAKEN WHILE
BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT
16N62W TO 15N77W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER SECTION OF ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF JAMAICA FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 75W-79W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 13N AND W OF 80W. AT UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO WEAKEN EVEN MORE WHILE BECOMING STATIONARY.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 60W IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE E GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE W ATLANTIC 26N80W TO 30N67W TO 43N61W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE
E...A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N53W. A 1014 MB
SURFACE LOW IS NOTED NEAR 25N47W. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WITH AXIS ALONG 48W SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IT STARTS AS A COLD FRONT FROM 16N61W TO
24N45W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 24N45W TO 40N35W. THEN A
COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT INTO THE N ATLANTIC.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THESE
BOUNDARIES N OF 20N BETWEEN 37W-47W. A LARGE 1033 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED E OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N20W. EXPECT THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHILE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180923
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
NEAR 06N77W TO 07N90W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ EXTENDING
WESTWARD TO BEYOND 05N140W. MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN
60 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 95W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
TO 22N120W WILL SHIFT E TODAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS
BUILDING OVER THE REGION W OF 120W. AN ASSOCIATED 1027 MB
SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N148W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO
THE CENTRAL COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A 06 UTC
ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATES FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS SOUTH
OF THE RIDGE FROM THE ITCZ TO GENERALLY 20N. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO
INDICATED A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH OF 10N EMBEDDED IN THE
ITCZ NEAR 138W. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING ALONG THE ITCZ OVER
THE PASS COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IS ENHANCING TRADE WIND FLOW TOWARD
THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH. SEVERAL ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS INDICATED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN THE AREA
OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS...LIKELY A COMBINATION OF
LINGERING LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH SEAS GENERATE BY THE TRADE
WINDS. ELSEWHERE LINGER NW SWELL IS MAINTAINING SEAS AT OR JUST
BELOW 8 FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN 110W AND 140W.

DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET ALOFT IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER
CLOUDINESS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
12N TO 18N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W.

THROUGH LATE FRI...A WEAK MID/UPPER IMPULSE WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
N OF THE AREA INTO THE U.S. WEST COAST THROUGH LATE FRI. A
BLOCKING RIDGE WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS...REINFORCING
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ALLOWING THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS TO SPREAD EASTWARD TO 115W BY LATE FRI. THE EASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE RIDGE WILL ALSO SUPPORT FRESH NW FLOW OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND ALONG THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. VARIOUS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE WAVE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ENTER THE
AREA FROM THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH SEAS OF 12 TO 18
FT...REACHING AS FAR AS W OF A LINE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO
15N140W BY LATE FRI.

E OF 110W...AN AREA OF 7 TO 8 FT THAT IS THE REMNANT OF SHORT
PERIOD NE SWELL FROM AN EARLIER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
PULSE...MIXED WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL...PERSISTS NEAR
11N110W. THIS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 8 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY FRI.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10-15 KT LATE THU...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15-
20 KT BY EARLY FRI...THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180923
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA
NEAR 06N77W TO 07N90W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ EXTENDING
WESTWARD TO BEYOND 05N140W. MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN
60 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 95W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
TO 22N120W WILL SHIFT E TODAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS
BUILDING OVER THE REGION W OF 120W. AN ASSOCIATED 1027 MB
SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N148W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO
THE CENTRAL COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A 06 UTC
ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATES FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS SOUTH
OF THE RIDGE FROM THE ITCZ TO GENERALLY 20N. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO
INDICATED A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH OF 10N EMBEDDED IN THE
ITCZ NEAR 138W. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING ALONG THE ITCZ OVER
THE PASS COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IS ENHANCING TRADE WIND FLOW TOWARD
THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH. SEVERAL ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS INDICATED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN THE AREA
OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS...LIKELY A COMBINATION OF
LINGERING LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH SEAS GENERATE BY THE TRADE
WINDS. ELSEWHERE LINGER NW SWELL IS MAINTAINING SEAS AT OR JUST
BELOW 8 FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN 110W AND 140W.

DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET ALOFT IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER
CLOUDINESS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
12N TO 18N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W.

THROUGH LATE FRI...A WEAK MID/UPPER IMPULSE WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
N OF THE AREA INTO THE U.S. WEST COAST THROUGH LATE FRI. A
BLOCKING RIDGE WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS...REINFORCING
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ALLOWING THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS TO SPREAD EASTWARD TO 115W BY LATE FRI. THE EASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE RIDGE WILL ALSO SUPPORT FRESH NW FLOW OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND ALONG THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. VARIOUS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE WAVE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ENTER THE
AREA FROM THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH SEAS OF 12 TO 18
FT...REACHING AS FAR AS W OF A LINE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO
15N140W BY LATE FRI.

E OF 110W...AN AREA OF 7 TO 8 FT THAT IS THE REMNANT OF SHORT
PERIOD NE SWELL FROM AN EARLIER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
PULSE...MIXED WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL...PERSISTS NEAR
11N110W. THIS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 8 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY FRI.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NW AT 10-15 KT LATE THU...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15-
20 KT BY EARLY FRI...THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$
CHRISTENSEN




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