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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280239
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUL 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS NEAR 16.0N 127.0W 1007 MB AT
0300 UTC JUL 28 MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 75 NM S QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM SE AND S
QUADRANTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH
TUE AS IT CONTINUES MOVING W-NW...POSSIBLY BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON WED. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 109W FROM 08N-16N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN
210 NM E AND 90 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 09N-13N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION 04N-08N BETWEEN 105W-110W.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 14N118W TO LOW PRES NEAR
09N115W 1008 MB TO 07N114W. THE WAVE WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20
KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM NE AND 300 NM SW
SEMICIRCLES OF LOW PRES.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 133W FROM 07N-15N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN
60 NM E AND 210 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 09N-13N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N86W TO 07N93W TO
09N105W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60
NM N AND 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 91W-97W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 02N-06N E OF 87W.

...DISCUSSION...

1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE ANALYZED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 44N136W
EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N128W TO 19N114W...OVER THE
WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING
OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE FORCED MORE
TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS EVENING.
THEY ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN BY TUE WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING
WEAKENS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE NEAR 10N OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF 10N W OF 127W. THE AREA
OF STRONGEST TRADES CLOSEST TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE LOCATION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E MOVES W-NW...SHIFTING
THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT W. SEAS WERE 7-9 FT IN NE WIND
WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF
135W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY TUE
MORNING.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENHANCED TRADE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. OFFSHORE NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUE
NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

$$
SCHAUER


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280239
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUL 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS NEAR 16.0N 127.0W 1007 MB AT
0300 UTC JUL 28 MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 75 NM S QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM SE AND S
QUADRANTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH
TUE AS IT CONTINUES MOVING W-NW...POSSIBLY BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON WED. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 109W FROM 08N-16N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN
210 NM E AND 90 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 09N-13N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION 04N-08N BETWEEN 105W-110W.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 14N118W TO LOW PRES NEAR
09N115W 1008 MB TO 07N114W. THE WAVE WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20
KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM NE AND 300 NM SW
SEMICIRCLES OF LOW PRES.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 133W FROM 07N-15N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN
60 NM E AND 210 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 09N-13N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N86W TO 07N93W TO
09N105W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60
NM N AND 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 91W-97W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 02N-06N E OF 87W.

...DISCUSSION...

1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE ANALYZED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 44N136W
EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N128W TO 19N114W...OVER THE
WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING
OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE FORCED MORE
TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS EVENING.
THEY ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN BY TUE WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING
WEAKENS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE NEAR 10N OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF 10N W OF 127W. THE AREA
OF STRONGEST TRADES CLOSEST TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE LOCATION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E MOVES W-NW...SHIFTING
THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT W. SEAS WERE 7-9 FT IN NE WIND
WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF
135W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY TUE
MORNING.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENHANCED TRADE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. OFFSHORE NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUE
NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

$$
SCHAUER


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280239
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUL 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS NEAR 16.0N 127.0W 1007 MB AT
0300 UTC JUL 28 MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 75 NM S QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM SE AND S
QUADRANTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH
TUE AS IT CONTINUES MOVING W-NW...POSSIBLY BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON WED. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 109W FROM 08N-16N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN
210 NM E AND 90 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 09N-13N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION 04N-08N BETWEEN 105W-110W.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 14N118W TO LOW PRES NEAR
09N115W 1008 MB TO 07N114W. THE WAVE WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20
KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM NE AND 300 NM SW
SEMICIRCLES OF LOW PRES.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 133W FROM 07N-15N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN
60 NM E AND 210 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 09N-13N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N86W TO 07N93W TO
09N105W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60
NM N AND 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 91W-97W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 02N-06N E OF 87W.

...DISCUSSION...

1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE ANALYZED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 44N136W
EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N128W TO 19N114W...OVER THE
WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING
OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE FORCED MORE
TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS EVENING.
THEY ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN BY TUE WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING
WEAKENS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE NEAR 10N OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF 10N W OF 127W. THE AREA
OF STRONGEST TRADES CLOSEST TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE LOCATION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E MOVES W-NW...SHIFTING
THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT W. SEAS WERE 7-9 FT IN NE WIND
WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF
135W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY TUE
MORNING.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENHANCED TRADE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. OFFSHORE NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUE
NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

$$
SCHAUER



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280239
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUL 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS NEAR 16.0N 127.0W 1007 MB AT
0300 UTC JUL 28 MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 75 NM S QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM SE AND S
QUADRANTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH
TUE AS IT CONTINUES MOVING W-NW...POSSIBLY BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON WED. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 109W FROM 08N-16N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN
210 NM E AND 90 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 09N-13N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION 04N-08N BETWEEN 105W-110W.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 14N118W TO LOW PRES NEAR
09N115W 1008 MB TO 07N114W. THE WAVE WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20
KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM NE AND 300 NM SW
SEMICIRCLES OF LOW PRES.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 133W FROM 07N-15N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN
60 NM E AND 210 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 09N-13N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N86W TO 07N93W TO
09N105W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60
NM N AND 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 91W-97W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 02N-06N E OF 87W.

...DISCUSSION...

1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE ANALYZED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 44N136W
EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N128W TO 19N114W...OVER THE
WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING
OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE FORCED MORE
TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS EVENING.
THEY ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN BY TUE WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING
WEAKENS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE NEAR 10N OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF 10N W OF 127W. THE AREA
OF STRONGEST TRADES CLOSEST TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE LOCATION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E MOVES W-NW...SHIFTING
THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT W. SEAS WERE 7-9 FT IN NE WIND
WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF
135W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY TUE
MORNING.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENHANCED TRADE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. OFFSHORE NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUE
NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

$$
SCHAUER



000
WTPZ33 KNHC 280232
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
800 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NOT WELL ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 127.0W
ABOUT 1210 MI...1945 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E
was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 127.0 West.  The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22
km/h).  This general motion is expected to continue with a turn
toward the west by late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Slow strengthening is possible through Tuesday, and the
depression could become a tropical storm within the next day or so.
Weakening is expected to begin on Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 280231
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
0300 UTC TUE JUL 28 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 127.0W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 127.0W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 126.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.4N 128.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 16.9N 131.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.2N 133.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.5N 135.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 18.0N 141.3W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 127.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 280231
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
0300 UTC TUE JUL 28 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 127.0W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 127.0W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 126.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.4N 128.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 16.9N 131.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.2N 133.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.5N 135.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 18.0N 141.3W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 127.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN





000
ACPN50 PHFO 272351
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST MON JUL 27 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

BRAVENDER





000
ACPN50 PHFO 272351
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST MON JUL 27 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

BRAVENDER






000
AXNT20 KNHC 272350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GALE WARNING...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND END TUE
MORNING FOR THE AREA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 72W-74W IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN. THESE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 24W/25W FROM
11N-17N MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE
LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 44W/45W
FROM 9N-18N MOVING W 25-30 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND
THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 64W/65W S OF 18N
TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THE
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A PLUMB
OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N70W TO 12N82W
MOVING W-NW NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. WAVE IS ALSO W OF AN UPPER
RIDGE THAT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 21N81W TO INLAND OVER
HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W ALONG 9N29W TO 8N42W. THE ITCZ BEGINS
NEAR 9N46W AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N59W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75
NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 10N-17N. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 18W-27W
AND FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 21W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E CONUS
ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A 1013 MB LOW IS
ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA JUST N TO TAMPA BAY WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING W ALONG 27N87W TO 28N91W WITH A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 84W-91W AND
N OF 24N E OF 84W TO ACROSS FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH A
1017 MB HIGH NEAR 23N86W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH WED. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERING THE
FAR W CARIBBEAN WITH A SECOND CUTOFF UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE
NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N82W AND AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO
19N86W. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N W OF 85W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN S OF 18N BETWEEN 76W-86W ANCHORED NEAR 13N82W. AN N/S
ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED E OF LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 17N60W
GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN SW FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER CUBA PRIMARILY
BETWEEN 77W-83W. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 12N E OF 70W TO ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH WED INCREASING TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COLOMBIA COAST EACH NIGHT...EXCEPT TO
MINIMAL GALE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT. W
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W
CARIBBEAN AND OUT OF THE AREA BY TUE. E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE
CONTINUE W MOVING INTO THE W CARIBBEAN BY WED. A THIRD TROPICAL
WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN ON LATE WED.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE W ATLC COVERING THE ISLAND. THE E
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS JUST S OF THE ISLAND TUE
GIVING THE S PORTION CHANCES OF SHOWERS ON TUE. HOWEVER DAYTIME
HEATING COULD STILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE
FAR W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 70W WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH JUST N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 32N52W AND EXTENDS ALONG 30N57W TO 31N62W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 32N BETWEEN BERMUDA AND
76W WHERE IT DIPS S TO A SURFACE TROUGH OVER JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 30N TO THE STATIONARY FRONT E OF
80W...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM S
OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 30N78W TO OVER
FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH ABOUT 200 NM SW OF THE AZORES WITH A
NARROWING RIDGE AXIS S OF THE W ATLC FRONTAL SYSTEM AND EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N39W ALONG 27N50W TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 26N63W
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS NARROW RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT SLIGHTLY S TUE NIGHT AND WED. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE A LITTLE E ON WED BUT WILL STALL AGAIN WED NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 272350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GALE WARNING...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND END TUE
MORNING FOR THE AREA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 72W-74W IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN. THESE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 24W/25W FROM
11N-17N MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE
LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 44W/45W
FROM 9N-18N MOVING W 25-30 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND
THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 64W/65W S OF 18N
TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THE
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A PLUMB
OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N70W TO 12N82W
MOVING W-NW NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. WAVE IS ALSO W OF AN UPPER
RIDGE THAT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 21N81W TO INLAND OVER
HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W ALONG 9N29W TO 8N42W. THE ITCZ BEGINS
NEAR 9N46W AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N59W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75
NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 10N-17N. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 18W-27W
AND FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 21W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E CONUS
ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A 1013 MB LOW IS
ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA JUST N TO TAMPA BAY WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING W ALONG 27N87W TO 28N91W WITH A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 84W-91W AND
N OF 24N E OF 84W TO ACROSS FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH A
1017 MB HIGH NEAR 23N86W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH WED. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERING THE
FAR W CARIBBEAN WITH A SECOND CUTOFF UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE
NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N82W AND AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO
19N86W. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N W OF 85W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN S OF 18N BETWEEN 76W-86W ANCHORED NEAR 13N82W. AN N/S
ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED E OF LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 17N60W
GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN SW FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER CUBA PRIMARILY
BETWEEN 77W-83W. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 12N E OF 70W TO ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH WED INCREASING TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COLOMBIA COAST EACH NIGHT...EXCEPT TO
MINIMAL GALE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT. W
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W
CARIBBEAN AND OUT OF THE AREA BY TUE. E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE
CONTINUE W MOVING INTO THE W CARIBBEAN BY WED. A THIRD TROPICAL
WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN ON LATE WED.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE W ATLC COVERING THE ISLAND. THE E
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS JUST S OF THE ISLAND TUE
GIVING THE S PORTION CHANCES OF SHOWERS ON TUE. HOWEVER DAYTIME
HEATING COULD STILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE
FAR W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 70W WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH JUST N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 32N52W AND EXTENDS ALONG 30N57W TO 31N62W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 32N BETWEEN BERMUDA AND
76W WHERE IT DIPS S TO A SURFACE TROUGH OVER JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 30N TO THE STATIONARY FRONT E OF
80W...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM S
OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 30N78W TO OVER
FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH ABOUT 200 NM SW OF THE AZORES WITH A
NARROWING RIDGE AXIS S OF THE W ATLC FRONTAL SYSTEM AND EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N39W ALONG 27N50W TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 26N63W
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS NARROW RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT SLIGHTLY S TUE NIGHT AND WED. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE A LITTLE E ON WED BUT WILL STALL AGAIN WED NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 272350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GALE WARNING...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND END TUE
MORNING FOR THE AREA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 72W-74W IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN. THESE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 24W/25W FROM
11N-17N MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE
LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 44W/45W
FROM 9N-18N MOVING W 25-30 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND
THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 64W/65W S OF 18N
TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THE
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A PLUMB
OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N70W TO 12N82W
MOVING W-NW NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. WAVE IS ALSO W OF AN UPPER
RIDGE THAT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 21N81W TO INLAND OVER
HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W ALONG 9N29W TO 8N42W. THE ITCZ BEGINS
NEAR 9N46W AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N59W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75
NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 10N-17N. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 18W-27W
AND FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 21W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E CONUS
ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A 1013 MB LOW IS
ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA JUST N TO TAMPA BAY WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING W ALONG 27N87W TO 28N91W WITH A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 84W-91W AND
N OF 24N E OF 84W TO ACROSS FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH A
1017 MB HIGH NEAR 23N86W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH WED. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERING THE
FAR W CARIBBEAN WITH A SECOND CUTOFF UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE
NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N82W AND AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO
19N86W. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N W OF 85W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN S OF 18N BETWEEN 76W-86W ANCHORED NEAR 13N82W. AN N/S
ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED E OF LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 17N60W
GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN SW FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER CUBA PRIMARILY
BETWEEN 77W-83W. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 12N E OF 70W TO ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH WED INCREASING TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COLOMBIA COAST EACH NIGHT...EXCEPT TO
MINIMAL GALE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT. W
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W
CARIBBEAN AND OUT OF THE AREA BY TUE. E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE
CONTINUE W MOVING INTO THE W CARIBBEAN BY WED. A THIRD TROPICAL
WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN ON LATE WED.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE W ATLC COVERING THE ISLAND. THE E
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS JUST S OF THE ISLAND TUE
GIVING THE S PORTION CHANCES OF SHOWERS ON TUE. HOWEVER DAYTIME
HEATING COULD STILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE
FAR W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 70W WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH JUST N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 32N52W AND EXTENDS ALONG 30N57W TO 31N62W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 32N BETWEEN BERMUDA AND
76W WHERE IT DIPS S TO A SURFACE TROUGH OVER JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 30N TO THE STATIONARY FRONT E OF
80W...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM S
OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 30N78W TO OVER
FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH ABOUT 200 NM SW OF THE AZORES WITH A
NARROWING RIDGE AXIS S OF THE W ATLC FRONTAL SYSTEM AND EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N39W ALONG 27N50W TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 26N63W
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS NARROW RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT SLIGHTLY S TUE NIGHT AND WED. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE A LITTLE E ON WED BUT WILL STALL AGAIN WED NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 272350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GALE WARNING...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND END TUE
MORNING FOR THE AREA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 72W-74W IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN. THESE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 24W/25W FROM
11N-17N MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE
LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 44W/45W
FROM 9N-18N MOVING W 25-30 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND
THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 64W/65W S OF 18N
TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THE
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A PLUMB
OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N70W TO 12N82W
MOVING W-NW NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. WAVE IS ALSO W OF AN UPPER
RIDGE THAT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 21N81W TO INLAND OVER
HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W ALONG 9N29W TO 8N42W. THE ITCZ BEGINS
NEAR 9N46W AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N59W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75
NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 10N-17N. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 18W-27W
AND FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 21W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E CONUS
ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A 1013 MB LOW IS
ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA JUST N TO TAMPA BAY WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING W ALONG 27N87W TO 28N91W WITH A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 84W-91W AND
N OF 24N E OF 84W TO ACROSS FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH A
1017 MB HIGH NEAR 23N86W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH WED. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERING THE
FAR W CARIBBEAN WITH A SECOND CUTOFF UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE
NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N82W AND AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO
19N86W. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N W OF 85W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN S OF 18N BETWEEN 76W-86W ANCHORED NEAR 13N82W. AN N/S
ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED E OF LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 17N60W
GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN SW FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER CUBA PRIMARILY
BETWEEN 77W-83W. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 12N E OF 70W TO ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH WED INCREASING TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COLOMBIA COAST EACH NIGHT...EXCEPT TO
MINIMAL GALE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT. W
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W
CARIBBEAN AND OUT OF THE AREA BY TUE. E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE
CONTINUE W MOVING INTO THE W CARIBBEAN BY WED. A THIRD TROPICAL
WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN ON LATE WED.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE W ATLC COVERING THE ISLAND. THE E
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS JUST S OF THE ISLAND TUE
GIVING THE S PORTION CHANCES OF SHOWERS ON TUE. HOWEVER DAYTIME
HEATING COULD STILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE
FAR W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 70W WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH JUST N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 32N52W AND EXTENDS ALONG 30N57W TO 31N62W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 32N BETWEEN BERMUDA AND
76W WHERE IT DIPS S TO A SURFACE TROUGH OVER JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 30N TO THE STATIONARY FRONT E OF
80W...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM S
OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 30N78W TO OVER
FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH ABOUT 200 NM SW OF THE AZORES WITH A
NARROWING RIDGE AXIS S OF THE W ATLC FRONTAL SYSTEM AND EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N39W ALONG 27N50W TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 26N63W
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS NARROW RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT SLIGHTLY S TUE NIGHT AND WED. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE A LITTLE E ON WED BUT WILL STALL AGAIN WED NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 272337
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Eight-E, located a little more than a thousand
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms about 1000 miles south-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are
associated with a broad area of low pressure.  Environmental
conditions are expected to be generally conducive for development,
and this system is likely to become a tropical depression later this
week while moving westward at 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 272337
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Eight-E, located a little more than a thousand
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms about 1000 miles south-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are
associated with a broad area of low pressure.  Environmental
conditions are expected to be generally conducive for development,
and this system is likely to become a tropical depression later this
week while moving westward at 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 272337
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Eight-E, located a little more than a thousand
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms about 1000 miles south-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are
associated with a broad area of low pressure.  Environmental
conditions are expected to be generally conducive for development,
and this system is likely to become a tropical depression later this
week while moving westward at 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 272337
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Eight-E, located a little more than a thousand
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms about 1000 miles south-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are
associated with a broad area of low pressure.  Environmental
conditions are expected to be generally conducive for development,
and this system is likely to become a tropical depression later this
week while moving westward at 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272332
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS NEAR 15.6N 126.1W
1007 MB AT 2100 UTC JUL 27 MOVING W-NW OR 285 DEG AT 14 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 75 NM E AND S QUADRANTS
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM SE
AND 60 NM NW SEMICIRCLES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AS IT CONTINUES MOVING W-NW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TUE. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 107W FROM 08N-16N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 30 NM E AND 90 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-
12N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 08N-12N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 15N117W TO 07N113W. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 30 NM E AND 210 NM W OF THE WAVE
FROM 07N-11N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 131W FROM 07N-15N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N134W TO 05N131W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N85W TO 07N94W TO
09N103W TO 07N117W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS FROM 02N-10N W OF A LINE FROM 02N89W TO 10N94W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 270 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 94W-122W. IN THE CONVERGENCE REGION OVER W WATERS....
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 05N-
12N W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE ANALYZED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 44N140W
EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N125W TO 18N113W. THE
REMNANTS OF FELICIA WERE ANALYZED AS A TROUGH FROM 22N128W TO
25N127W. WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THE REMNANTS ARE BELIEVED TO HAVE
DROPPED BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8
FT...RESPECTIVELY.

THE RIDGE HAS BUILT E OF THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA ACROSS NE
WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING
OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE FORCED MORE
TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS EVENING.
THEY ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN BY TUE WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING
WEAKENS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE NEAR 10N OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF 10N W OF 125W. THIS AREA
OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E MOVES W-NW TOWARD THE
AREA...SHIFTING THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT W. SEAS WERE 7-9
FT IN NE WIND WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY FROM 10N
TO 20N W OF 132W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT BY TUE AFTERNOON.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENHANCED TRADE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. OFFSHORE NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUE
NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

$$
SCHAUER



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272332
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS NEAR 15.6N 126.1W
1007 MB AT 2100 UTC JUL 27 MOVING W-NW OR 285 DEG AT 14 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 75 NM E AND S QUADRANTS
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM SE
AND 60 NM NW SEMICIRCLES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AS IT CONTINUES MOVING W-NW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TUE. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 107W FROM 08N-16N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 30 NM E AND 90 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-
12N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 08N-12N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 15N117W TO 07N113W. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 30 NM E AND 210 NM W OF THE WAVE
FROM 07N-11N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 131W FROM 07N-15N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N134W TO 05N131W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N85W TO 07N94W TO
09N103W TO 07N117W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS FROM 02N-10N W OF A LINE FROM 02N89W TO 10N94W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 270 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 94W-122W. IN THE CONVERGENCE REGION OVER W WATERS....
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 05N-
12N W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE ANALYZED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 44N140W
EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N125W TO 18N113W. THE
REMNANTS OF FELICIA WERE ANALYZED AS A TROUGH FROM 22N128W TO
25N127W. WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THE REMNANTS ARE BELIEVED TO HAVE
DROPPED BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8
FT...RESPECTIVELY.

THE RIDGE HAS BUILT E OF THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA ACROSS NE
WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING
OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE FORCED MORE
TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS EVENING.
THEY ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN BY TUE WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING
WEAKENS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE NEAR 10N OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF 10N W OF 125W. THIS AREA
OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E MOVES W-NW TOWARD THE
AREA...SHIFTING THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT W. SEAS WERE 7-9
FT IN NE WIND WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY FROM 10N
TO 20N W OF 132W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT BY TUE AFTERNOON.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENHANCED TRADE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. OFFSHORE NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUE
NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

$$
SCHAUER



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272332
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS NEAR 15.6N 126.1W
1007 MB AT 2100 UTC JUL 27 MOVING W-NW OR 285 DEG AT 14 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 75 NM E AND S QUADRANTS
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM SE
AND 60 NM NW SEMICIRCLES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AS IT CONTINUES MOVING W-NW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TUE. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 107W FROM 08N-16N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 30 NM E AND 90 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-
12N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 08N-12N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 15N117W TO 07N113W. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 30 NM E AND 210 NM W OF THE WAVE
FROM 07N-11N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 131W FROM 07N-15N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N134W TO 05N131W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N85W TO 07N94W TO
09N103W TO 07N117W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS FROM 02N-10N W OF A LINE FROM 02N89W TO 10N94W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 270 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 94W-122W. IN THE CONVERGENCE REGION OVER W WATERS....
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 05N-
12N W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE ANALYZED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 44N140W
EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N125W TO 18N113W. THE
REMNANTS OF FELICIA WERE ANALYZED AS A TROUGH FROM 22N128W TO
25N127W. WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THE REMNANTS ARE BELIEVED TO HAVE
DROPPED BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8
FT...RESPECTIVELY.

THE RIDGE HAS BUILT E OF THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA ACROSS NE
WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING
OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE FORCED MORE
TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS EVENING.
THEY ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN BY TUE WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING
WEAKENS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE NEAR 10N OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF 10N W OF 125W. THIS AREA
OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E MOVES W-NW TOWARD THE
AREA...SHIFTING THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT W. SEAS WERE 7-9
FT IN NE WIND WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY FROM 10N
TO 20N W OF 132W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT BY TUE AFTERNOON.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENHANCED TRADE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. OFFSHORE NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUE
NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

$$
SCHAUER



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272332
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS NEAR 15.6N 126.1W
1007 MB AT 2100 UTC JUL 27 MOVING W-NW OR 285 DEG AT 14 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 75 NM E AND S QUADRANTS
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM SE
AND 60 NM NW SEMICIRCLES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AS IT CONTINUES MOVING W-NW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TUE. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 107W FROM 08N-16N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 30 NM E AND 90 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-
12N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 08N-12N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 15N117W TO 07N113W. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 30 NM E AND 210 NM W OF THE WAVE
FROM 07N-11N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 131W FROM 07N-15N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N134W TO 05N131W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N85W TO 07N94W TO
09N103W TO 07N117W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS FROM 02N-10N W OF A LINE FROM 02N89W TO 10N94W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 270 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 94W-122W. IN THE CONVERGENCE REGION OVER W WATERS....
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 05N-
12N W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE ANALYZED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 44N140W
EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N125W TO 18N113W. THE
REMNANTS OF FELICIA WERE ANALYZED AS A TROUGH FROM 22N128W TO
25N127W. WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THE REMNANTS ARE BELIEVED TO HAVE
DROPPED BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8
FT...RESPECTIVELY.

THE RIDGE HAS BUILT E OF THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA ACROSS NE
WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING
OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE FORCED MORE
TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS EVENING.
THEY ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN BY TUE WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING
WEAKENS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE NEAR 10N OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF 10N W OF 125W. THIS AREA
OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E MOVES W-NW TOWARD THE
AREA...SHIFTING THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT W. SEAS WERE 7-9
FT IN NE WIND WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY FROM 10N
TO 20N W OF 132W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT BY TUE AFTERNOON.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENHANCED TRADE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. OFFSHORE NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUE
NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

$$
SCHAUER



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 272329
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT LUNES 27 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH



000
ABNT20 KNHC 272328
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABNT20 KNHC 272328
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272120 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS NEAR 15.6N 126.1W
1007 MB AT 2100 UTC JUL 27 MOVING W-NW OR 285 DEG AT 14 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 75 NM E AND S QUADRANTS
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM SE
AND 60 NM NW SEMICIRCLES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AS IT CONTINUES MOVING W-NW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TUE. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 107W FROM 08N-16N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 30 NM E AND 90 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-
12N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 08N-12N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 15N117W TO 07N113W. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 30 NM E AND 210 NM W OF THE WAVE
FROM 07N-11N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 131W FROM 07N-15N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N134W TO 05N131W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N85W TO 07N94W TO
09N103W TO 07N117W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS FROM 02N-10N W OF A LINE FROM 02N89W TO 10N94W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 270 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 94W-122W. IN THE CONVERGENCE REGION OVER W WATERS....
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 05N-
12N W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE ANALYZED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 44N140W
EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N125W TO 18N113W. THE
REMNANTS OF FELICIA WERE ANALYZED AS A TROUGH FROM 22N128W TO
25N127W. WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THE REMNANTS ARE BELIEVED TO HAVE
DROPPED BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8
FT...RESPECTIVELY.

THE RIDGE HAS BUILT E OF THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA ACROSS NE
WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING
OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE FORCED MORE
TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS EVENING.
THEY ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN BY TUE WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING
WEAKENS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE NEAR 10N OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF 10N W OF 125W. THIS AREA
OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E MOVES W-NW TOWARD THE
AREA...SHIFTING THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT W. SEAS WERE 7-9
FT IN NE WIND WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY FROM 10N
TO 20N W OF 132W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT BY TUE AFTERNOON.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENHANCED TRADE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. OFFSHORE NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUE
NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

$$
SCHAUER


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272120 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS NEAR 15.6N 126.1W
1007 MB AT 2100 UTC JUL 27 MOVING W-NW OR 285 DEG AT 14 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 75 NM E AND S QUADRANTS
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM SE
AND 60 NM NW SEMICIRCLES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AS IT CONTINUES MOVING W-NW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TUE. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 107W FROM 08N-16N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 30 NM E AND 90 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-
12N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 08N-12N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 15N117W TO 07N113W. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 30 NM E AND 210 NM W OF THE WAVE
FROM 07N-11N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 131W FROM 07N-15N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N134W TO 05N131W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N85W TO 07N94W TO
09N103W TO 07N117W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS FROM 02N-10N W OF A LINE FROM 02N89W TO 10N94W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 270 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 94W-122W. IN THE CONVERGENCE REGION OVER W WATERS....
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 05N-
12N W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE ANALYZED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 44N140W
EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N125W TO 18N113W. THE
REMNANTS OF FELICIA WERE ANALYZED AS A TROUGH FROM 22N128W TO
25N127W. WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THE REMNANTS ARE BELIEVED TO HAVE
DROPPED BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8
FT...RESPECTIVELY.

THE RIDGE HAS BUILT E OF THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA ACROSS NE
WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING
OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE FORCED MORE
TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS EVENING.
THEY ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN BY TUE WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING
WEAKENS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE NEAR 10N OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF 10N W OF 125W. THIS AREA
OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E MOVES W-NW TOWARD THE
AREA...SHIFTING THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT W. SEAS WERE 7-9
FT IN NE WIND WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY FROM 10N
TO 20N W OF 132W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT BY TUE AFTERNOON.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENHANCED TRADE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. OFFSHORE NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUE
NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

$$
SCHAUER


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272120 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS NEAR 15.6N 126.1W
1007 MB AT 2100 UTC JUL 27 MOVING W-NW OR 285 DEG AT 14 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 75 NM E AND S QUADRANTS
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM SE
AND 60 NM NW SEMICIRCLES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AS IT CONTINUES MOVING W-NW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TUE. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 107W FROM 08N-16N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 30 NM E AND 90 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-
12N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 08N-12N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 15N117W TO 07N113W. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 30 NM E AND 210 NM W OF THE WAVE
FROM 07N-11N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 131W FROM 07N-15N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N134W TO 05N131W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N85W TO 07N94W TO
09N103W TO 07N117W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS FROM 02N-10N W OF A LINE FROM 02N89W TO 10N94W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 270 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 94W-122W. IN THE CONVERGENCE REGION OVER W WATERS....
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 05N-
12N W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE ANALYZED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 44N140W
EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N125W TO 18N113W. THE
REMNANTS OF FELICIA WERE ANALYZED AS A TROUGH FROM 22N128W TO
25N127W. WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THE REMNANTS ARE BELIEVED TO HAVE
DROPPED BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8
FT...RESPECTIVELY.

THE RIDGE HAS BUILT E OF THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA ACROSS NE
WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING
OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE FORCED MORE
TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS EVENING.
THEY ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN BY TUE WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING
WEAKENS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE NEAR 10N OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF 10N W OF 125W. THIS AREA
OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E MOVES W-NW TOWARD THE
AREA...SHIFTING THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT W. SEAS WERE 7-9
FT IN NE WIND WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY FROM 10N
TO 20N W OF 132W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT BY TUE AFTERNOON.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENHANCED TRADE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. OFFSHORE NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUE
NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

$$
SCHAUER


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272120 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS NEAR 15.6N 126.1W
1007 MB AT 2100 UTC JUL 27 MOVING W-NW OR 285 DEG AT 14 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 75 NM E AND S QUADRANTS
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM SE
AND 60 NM NW SEMICIRCLES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AS IT CONTINUES MOVING W-NW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TUE. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 107W FROM 08N-16N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 30 NM E AND 90 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-
12N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 08N-12N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 15N117W TO 07N113W. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 30 NM E AND 210 NM W OF THE WAVE
FROM 07N-11N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 131W FROM 07N-15N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N134W TO 05N131W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N85W TO 07N94W TO
09N103W TO 07N117W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS FROM 02N-10N W OF A LINE FROM 02N89W TO 10N94W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 270 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 94W-122W. IN THE CONVERGENCE REGION OVER W WATERS....
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 05N-
12N W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE ANALYZED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 44N140W
EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N125W TO 18N113W. THE
REMNANTS OF FELICIA WERE ANALYZED AS A TROUGH FROM 22N128W TO
25N127W. WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THE REMNANTS ARE BELIEVED TO HAVE
DROPPED BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8
FT...RESPECTIVELY.

THE RIDGE HAS BUILT E OF THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA ACROSS NE
WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING
OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE FORCED MORE
TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS EVENING.
THEY ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN BY TUE WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING
WEAKENS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE NEAR 10N OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF 10N W OF 125W. THIS AREA
OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E MOVES W-NW TOWARD THE
AREA...SHIFTING THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT W. SEAS WERE 7-9
FT IN NE WIND WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY FROM 10N
TO 20N W OF 132W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT BY TUE AFTERNOON.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENHANCED TRADE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. OFFSHORE NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUE
NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

$$
SCHAUER


000
WTPZ23 KNHC 272054
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
2100 UTC MON JUL 27 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 126.1W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 126.1W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 125.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.1N 128.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.6N 130.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 17.0N 132.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.3N 134.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.9N 139.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 18.2N 145.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 18.4N 151.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 126.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ33 KNHC 272054
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
200 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 126.1W
ABOUT 1170 MI...1880 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
Satellite imagery and satellite-derived wind data indicate that a
tropical depression has formed well to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E
was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 126.1 West.  The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 48
hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours, and the
depression could become a tropical storm by Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
WTPZ23 KNHC 272054
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
2100 UTC MON JUL 27 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 126.1W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 126.1W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 125.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.1N 128.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.6N 130.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 17.0N 132.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.3N 134.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.9N 139.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 18.2N 145.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 18.4N 151.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 126.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ33 KNHC 272054
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
200 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 126.1W
ABOUT 1170 MI...1880 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
Satellite imagery and satellite-derived wind data indicate that a
tropical depression has formed well to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E
was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 126.1 West.  The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 48
hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours, and the
depression could become a tropical storm by Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
WTPZ23 KNHC 272054
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
2100 UTC MON JUL 27 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 126.1W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 126.1W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 125.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.1N 128.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.6N 130.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 17.0N 132.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.3N 134.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.9N 139.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 18.2N 145.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 18.4N 151.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 126.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





000
WTPZ33 KNHC 272054
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
200 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 126.1W
ABOUT 1170 MI...1880 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
Satellite imagery and satellite-derived wind data indicate that a
tropical depression has formed well to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E
was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 126.1 West.  The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 48
hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours, and the
depression could become a tropical storm by Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart




000
WTPZ23 KNHC 272054
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
2100 UTC MON JUL 27 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 126.1W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 126.1W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 125.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.1N 128.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.6N 130.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 17.0N 132.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.3N 134.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.9N 139.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 18.2N 145.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 18.4N 151.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 126.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





000
WTPZ33 KNHC 272054
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
200 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 126.1W
ABOUT 1170 MI...1880 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
Satellite imagery and satellite-derived wind data indicate that a
tropical depression has formed well to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E
was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 126.1 West.  The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 48
hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours, and the
depression could become a tropical storm by Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 272053
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT LUNES 27 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 272053
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT LUNES 27 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS


000
ACPN50 PHFO 271745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST MON JUL 27 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

BRAVENDER





000
ACPN50 PHFO 271745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST MON JUL 27 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

BRAVENDER






000
ACPN50 PHFO 271745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST MON JUL 27 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

BRAVENDER





000
ACPN50 PHFO 271745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST MON JUL 27 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

BRAVENDER






000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271743
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A well-defined low pressure system is located about 1100 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become better
organized near the center of the low overnight and this morning.
If this development trend continues, a tropical depression could
form this afternoon or tonight while the low moves
west-northwestward at 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce a large
area of cloudiness and disorganized shower activity. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for slow development while
the disturbance moves generally westward this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271743
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A well-defined low pressure system is located about 1100 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become better
organized near the center of the low overnight and this morning.
If this development trend continues, a tropical depression could
form this afternoon or tonight while the low moves
west-northwestward at 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce a large
area of cloudiness and disorganized shower activity. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for slow development while
the disturbance moves generally westward this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271743
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A well-defined low pressure system is located about 1100 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become better
organized near the center of the low overnight and this morning.
If this development trend continues, a tropical depression could
form this afternoon or tonight while the low moves
west-northwestward at 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce a large
area of cloudiness and disorganized shower activity. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for slow development while
the disturbance moves generally westward this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271743
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A well-defined low pressure system is located about 1100 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become better
organized near the center of the low overnight and this morning.
If this development trend continues, a tropical depression could
form this afternoon or tonight while the low moves
west-northwestward at 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce a large
area of cloudiness and disorganized shower activity. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for slow development while
the disturbance moves generally westward this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 271733
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


000
ABNT20 KNHC 271733
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


000
ABNT20 KNHC 271733
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


000
ABNT20 KNHC 271733
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


000
ABNT20 KNHC 271733
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



000
ABNT20 KNHC 271733
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


000
AXNT20 KNHC 271633
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1615 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING NEAR GALE FORCE E TO
NE WINDS FROM 11.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W TODAY. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN GALE
FORCE WINDS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W BEGINNING AROUND
28/0000 UTC...AND LASTING FOR 12 HOURS. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC FROM 11N24W TO
19N22W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD
700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 21W AND 26W. A MOISTURE SURGE ALONG 24W
IS NOTED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 06N TO 15N BETWEEN 18W AND 28W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 08N43W TO
19N42W MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH AN INVERTED 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 41W AND 48W. A
MODERATE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS NOTED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY ALONG
THE WAVE AXIS. HOWEVER...ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY INDICATES
SAHARAN DUST IS EMBEDDED WITHIN MUCH OF THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN FROM 09N63W TO 19N62W MOVING W AT AROUND 20 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN INVERTED 700 MB
TROUGH BETWEEN 61W AND 64W. THE BARBADOS SOUNDING AT 1200 UTC
THIS MORNING CONFIRMS THE WAVE PASSAGE ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS WITH A 700 MB WIND SHIFT FROM THE ENE TO ESE. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N80W TO 22N78W MOVING W AT 20 TO 25
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS ALONG A 700 MB TROUGH
WITH A SURGE OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 75W AND
84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
14N17W TO 10N26W TO 08N41W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N45W TO
06N58W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN ATLC
TROPICAL WAVE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 14N
BETWEEN 18W AND THE W COAST OF AFRICA...AND FROM 05N TO 09N
BETWEEN 28W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RESIDES OVER THE TN VALLEY WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. E TO NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
DOMINATES THE GULF BASIN WITH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
OVER THE SE GULF BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. A NEARLY
STATIONARY 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N83W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N90W TO THE LOW TO CENTRAL FL NEAR
29N82W. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FROM THE TROUGH AND LOW...AND THE UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER THIS PORTION OF THE GULF SUPPORTS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 82W AND 90W. W TO NW
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE OVER THE NE GULF. ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KT COVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN.
ELSEWHERE...A 1017 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 23N85W IS A PART OF A
RIDGE AXIS FROM THE W ATLC TO THE TX COAST. A CONVECTION FREE
DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N94W TO 22N93W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DRIFTING TO THE NE.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NE GULF THROUGH
TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE N
COAST OF COLOMBIA AND WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS LATER
TONIGHT OVER THE SAME AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS PREVAIL. OTHER THAN ISOLATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE...DRY AIR IS PREVENTING DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY. EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN TUESDAY AS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THAT PORTION OF THE BASIN. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...
DRY AIR ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION. SHALLOW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...HELPING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER THE SE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE EASTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND CENTRAL FL EXTENDS TO THE ATLC NEAR 31N80W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS N OF 30N ALONG MUCH OF THE W ATLC. A PORTION OF THIS
FRONT DIPS INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 21N62W TO 31N54W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 30N BETWEEN 70W AND
78W...AND FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 51W AND 57W. A 1027 MB HIGH
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED NEAR 35N30W SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE SUBTROPICAL N ATLC E OF 50W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES
ARE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITHIN 200 NM
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 271633
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1615 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING NEAR GALE FORCE E TO
NE WINDS FROM 11.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W TODAY. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN GALE
FORCE WINDS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W BEGINNING AROUND
28/0000 UTC...AND LASTING FOR 12 HOURS. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC FROM 11N24W TO
19N22W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD
700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 21W AND 26W. A MOISTURE SURGE ALONG 24W
IS NOTED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 06N TO 15N BETWEEN 18W AND 28W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 08N43W TO
19N42W MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH AN INVERTED 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 41W AND 48W. A
MODERATE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS NOTED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY ALONG
THE WAVE AXIS. HOWEVER...ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY INDICATES
SAHARAN DUST IS EMBEDDED WITHIN MUCH OF THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN FROM 09N63W TO 19N62W MOVING W AT AROUND 20 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN INVERTED 700 MB
TROUGH BETWEEN 61W AND 64W. THE BARBADOS SOUNDING AT 1200 UTC
THIS MORNING CONFIRMS THE WAVE PASSAGE ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS WITH A 700 MB WIND SHIFT FROM THE ENE TO ESE. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N80W TO 22N78W MOVING W AT 20 TO 25
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS ALONG A 700 MB TROUGH
WITH A SURGE OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 75W AND
84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
14N17W TO 10N26W TO 08N41W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N45W TO
06N58W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN ATLC
TROPICAL WAVE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 14N
BETWEEN 18W AND THE W COAST OF AFRICA...AND FROM 05N TO 09N
BETWEEN 28W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RESIDES OVER THE TN VALLEY WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. E TO NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
DOMINATES THE GULF BASIN WITH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
OVER THE SE GULF BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. A NEARLY
STATIONARY 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N83W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N90W TO THE LOW TO CENTRAL FL NEAR
29N82W. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FROM THE TROUGH AND LOW...AND THE UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER THIS PORTION OF THE GULF SUPPORTS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 82W AND 90W. W TO NW
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE OVER THE NE GULF. ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KT COVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN.
ELSEWHERE...A 1017 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 23N85W IS A PART OF A
RIDGE AXIS FROM THE W ATLC TO THE TX COAST. A CONVECTION FREE
DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N94W TO 22N93W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DRIFTING TO THE NE.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NE GULF THROUGH
TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE N
COAST OF COLOMBIA AND WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS LATER
TONIGHT OVER THE SAME AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS PREVAIL. OTHER THAN ISOLATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE...DRY AIR IS PREVENTING DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY. EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN TUESDAY AS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THAT PORTION OF THE BASIN. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...
DRY AIR ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION. SHALLOW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...HELPING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER THE SE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE EASTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND CENTRAL FL EXTENDS TO THE ATLC NEAR 31N80W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS N OF 30N ALONG MUCH OF THE W ATLC. A PORTION OF THIS
FRONT DIPS INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 21N62W TO 31N54W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 30N BETWEEN 70W AND
78W...AND FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 51W AND 57W. A 1027 MB HIGH
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED NEAR 35N30W SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE SUBTROPICAL N ATLC E OF 50W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES
ARE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITHIN 200 NM
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 271633
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1615 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING NEAR GALE FORCE E TO
NE WINDS FROM 11.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W TODAY. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN GALE
FORCE WINDS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W BEGINNING AROUND
28/0000 UTC...AND LASTING FOR 12 HOURS. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC FROM 11N24W TO
19N22W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD
700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 21W AND 26W. A MOISTURE SURGE ALONG 24W
IS NOTED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 06N TO 15N BETWEEN 18W AND 28W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 08N43W TO
19N42W MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH AN INVERTED 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 41W AND 48W. A
MODERATE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS NOTED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY ALONG
THE WAVE AXIS. HOWEVER...ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY INDICATES
SAHARAN DUST IS EMBEDDED WITHIN MUCH OF THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN FROM 09N63W TO 19N62W MOVING W AT AROUND 20 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN INVERTED 700 MB
TROUGH BETWEEN 61W AND 64W. THE BARBADOS SOUNDING AT 1200 UTC
THIS MORNING CONFIRMS THE WAVE PASSAGE ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS WITH A 700 MB WIND SHIFT FROM THE ENE TO ESE. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N80W TO 22N78W MOVING W AT 20 TO 25
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS ALONG A 700 MB TROUGH
WITH A SURGE OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 75W AND
84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
14N17W TO 10N26W TO 08N41W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N45W TO
06N58W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN ATLC
TROPICAL WAVE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 14N
BETWEEN 18W AND THE W COAST OF AFRICA...AND FROM 05N TO 09N
BETWEEN 28W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RESIDES OVER THE TN VALLEY WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. E TO NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
DOMINATES THE GULF BASIN WITH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
OVER THE SE GULF BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. A NEARLY
STATIONARY 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N83W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N90W TO THE LOW TO CENTRAL FL NEAR
29N82W. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FROM THE TROUGH AND LOW...AND THE UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER THIS PORTION OF THE GULF SUPPORTS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 82W AND 90W. W TO NW
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE OVER THE NE GULF. ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KT COVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN.
ELSEWHERE...A 1017 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 23N85W IS A PART OF A
RIDGE AXIS FROM THE W ATLC TO THE TX COAST. A CONVECTION FREE
DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N94W TO 22N93W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DRIFTING TO THE NE.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NE GULF THROUGH
TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE N
COAST OF COLOMBIA AND WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS LATER
TONIGHT OVER THE SAME AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS PREVAIL. OTHER THAN ISOLATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE...DRY AIR IS PREVENTING DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY. EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN TUESDAY AS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THAT PORTION OF THE BASIN. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...
DRY AIR ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION. SHALLOW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...HELPING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER THE SE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE EASTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND CENTRAL FL EXTENDS TO THE ATLC NEAR 31N80W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS N OF 30N ALONG MUCH OF THE W ATLC. A PORTION OF THIS
FRONT DIPS INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 21N62W TO 31N54W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 30N BETWEEN 70W AND
78W...AND FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 51W AND 57W. A 1027 MB HIGH
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED NEAR 35N30W SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE SUBTROPICAL N ATLC E OF 50W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES
ARE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITHIN 200 NM
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 271633
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1615 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING NEAR GALE FORCE E TO
NE WINDS FROM 11.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W TODAY. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN GALE
FORCE WINDS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W BEGINNING AROUND
28/0000 UTC...AND LASTING FOR 12 HOURS. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC FROM 11N24W TO
19N22W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD
700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 21W AND 26W. A MOISTURE SURGE ALONG 24W
IS NOTED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 06N TO 15N BETWEEN 18W AND 28W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 08N43W TO
19N42W MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH AN INVERTED 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 41W AND 48W. A
MODERATE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS NOTED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY ALONG
THE WAVE AXIS. HOWEVER...ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY INDICATES
SAHARAN DUST IS EMBEDDED WITHIN MUCH OF THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN FROM 09N63W TO 19N62W MOVING W AT AROUND 20 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN INVERTED 700 MB
TROUGH BETWEEN 61W AND 64W. THE BARBADOS SOUNDING AT 1200 UTC
THIS MORNING CONFIRMS THE WAVE PASSAGE ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS WITH A 700 MB WIND SHIFT FROM THE ENE TO ESE. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N80W TO 22N78W MOVING W AT 20 TO 25
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS ALONG A 700 MB TROUGH
WITH A SURGE OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 75W AND
84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
14N17W TO 10N26W TO 08N41W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N45W TO
06N58W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN ATLC
TROPICAL WAVE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 14N
BETWEEN 18W AND THE W COAST OF AFRICA...AND FROM 05N TO 09N
BETWEEN 28W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RESIDES OVER THE TN VALLEY WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. E TO NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
DOMINATES THE GULF BASIN WITH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
OVER THE SE GULF BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. A NEARLY
STATIONARY 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N83W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N90W TO THE LOW TO CENTRAL FL NEAR
29N82W. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FROM THE TROUGH AND LOW...AND THE UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER THIS PORTION OF THE GULF SUPPORTS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 82W AND 90W. W TO NW
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE OVER THE NE GULF. ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KT COVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN.
ELSEWHERE...A 1017 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 23N85W IS A PART OF A
RIDGE AXIS FROM THE W ATLC TO THE TX COAST. A CONVECTION FREE
DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N94W TO 22N93W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DRIFTING TO THE NE.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NE GULF THROUGH
TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE N
COAST OF COLOMBIA AND WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS LATER
TONIGHT OVER THE SAME AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS PREVAIL. OTHER THAN ISOLATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE...DRY AIR IS PREVENTING DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY. EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN TUESDAY AS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THAT PORTION OF THE BASIN. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...
DRY AIR ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION. SHALLOW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...HELPING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER THE SE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE EASTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND CENTRAL FL EXTENDS TO THE ATLC NEAR 31N80W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS N OF 30N ALONG MUCH OF THE W ATLC. A PORTION OF THIS
FRONT DIPS INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 21N62W TO 31N54W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 30N BETWEEN 70W AND
78W...AND FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 51W AND 57W. A 1027 MB HIGH
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED NEAR 35N30W SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE SUBTROPICAL N ATLC E OF 50W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES
ARE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITHIN 200 NM
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271606 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1007 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS NEAR 15N124W MOVING NW 13 KT. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH STRONG
TYPE INTENSITY CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE S SEMICIRCLE. UPPER NW WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE
N PORTION OF THE LOW...HOWEVER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH AT
09N104W NW TO 16N106W...MOVING W NEAR 16 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM WSW OF THE
WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM A 1008 MB LOW AT 07N111W
NW TO 15N116W...MOVING W 17 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 110W-115W. GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS IDENTIFIED ALONG AN AXIS THAT EXETNDS
FROM THE COSTA RICA/PANAMANIAN BORDER TO 07N95W TO 08N104W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 07N111W 1008 MB. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 83W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W-95W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 97W-100W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE SE AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
HAS BECOME VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WHILE
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER DRY SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS.
SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS ARE NOTED PROGRESSING E TO W ACROSS THE
DEEP TROPICS...WITH THE MORE NOTABLE ONES NOTED ONES BEING THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND TROPICAL LOWS REFERENCED IN THE DISCUSSION.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE CURRENT STATE OF ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

A 1029 MB HIGH CENTER IS WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 44N150W WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD TO 28N123W TO NEAR 21N116W. THE REMNANT LOW
OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM FELICIA IS NEAR 24N126W WITH A PRES OF
1015 MB MOVING W AT 10 KT. 15-20 KT WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NW QUADRANT WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN
MIXED SE AND SW SWELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELLS ARE
STILL EXPECTED FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 128W-132W THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY ON TUE.

AS THE REMNANT LOW HAS WEAKENED...THE RIDGE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE
NE WATERS AND ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE SW
UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE COMBINED TO FORCE MORE
TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS INCREASED THE PRES GRADIENT AND
THE WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LAST
NIGHT...BUT THE GRADIENT RELAXED SOME THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT
IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP EARLY TONIGHT TO ALLOW FOR NW
WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST FROM
ABOUT 25N-29N WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 8 FT. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO LET UP BY EARLY TUE WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT AND SUBSIDING TO JUST UNDER 8 FT.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER PRES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA FROM 10N-
15N W OF ABOUT 130W WITH SEAS THERE TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN SW
SWELLS. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF THE AREA
BY EARLY TUE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE 8 FT SEAS.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ABOUT THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...AND COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS TO
MAINTAIN ACTIVE TROPICAL CONVECTION W OF 90W THROUGH WED.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY THIS EVENING...THEN ARE
EXPECTED TO PULSE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE
WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8-9 FT WITH THESE PULSING WINDS. THESE
WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. SOME
RESIDUAL NE SWELLS PRODUCING SEAS TO 8 FT IS FORECAST TO REACH
NEAR 92W BY EARLY ON WED.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271606
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1007 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS NEAR 15N124W MOVING NW 13 KT. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH STRONG
TYPE INTENSITY CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE S SEMICIRCLE. UPPER NW WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE
N PORTION OF THE LOW...HOWEVER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH AT
09N104W NW TO 16N106W...MOVING W NEAR 16 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM WSW OF THE
WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM A 1008 MB LOW AT 07N111W
NW TO 15N116W...MOVING W 17 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 110W-115W. GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS IDENTIFIED ALONG AN AXIS THAT EXETNDS
FROM THE COSTA RICA/PANAMANIAN BORDER TO 07N95W TO 08N104W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 07N111W 1008 MB. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 83W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W-95W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 97W-100W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE SE AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
HAS BECOME VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WHILE
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER DRY SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS.
SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS ARE NOTED PROGRESSING E TO W ACROSS THE
DEEP TROPICS...WITH THE MORE NOTABLE ONES NOTED ONES BEING THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND TROPICAL LOWS REFERENCED IN THE DISCUSSION.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE CURRENT STATE OF ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

A 1029 MB HIGH CENTER IS WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 44N150W WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD TO 28N123W TO NEAR 21N116W. THE REMNANT LOW
OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM FELICIA IS NEAR 24N126W WITH A PRES OF
1015 MB MOVING W AT 10 KT. 15-20 KT WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NW QUADRANT WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN
MIXED SE AND SW SWELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELLS ARE
STILL EXPECTED FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 128W-132W THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY ON TUE.

AS THE REMNANT LOW HAS WEAKENED...THE RIDGE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE
NE WATERS AND ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE SW
UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE COMBINED TO FORCE MORE
TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS INCREASED THE PRES GRADIENT AND
THE WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LAST
NIGHT...BUT THE GRADIENT RELAXED SOME THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT
IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP EARLY TONIGHT TO ALLOW FOR NW
WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST FROM
ABOUT 25N-29N WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 8 FT. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO LET UP BY EARLY TUE WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT AND SUBSIDING TO JUST UNDER 8 FT.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER PRES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA FROM 10N-
15N W OF ABOUT 130W WITH SEAS THERE TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN SW
SWELLS. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF THE AREA
BY EARLY TUE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE 8 FT SEAS.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ABOUT THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...AND COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS TO
MAINTAIN ACTIVE TROPICAL CONVECTION W OF 90W THROUGH WED.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY THIS EVENING...THEN ARE
EXPECTED TO PULSE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE
WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8-9 FT WITH THESE PULSING WINDS. THESE
WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. SOME
RESIDUAL NE SWELLS PRODUCING SEAS TO 8 FT IS FORECAST TO REACH
NEAR 92W BY EARLY ON WED.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271606
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1007 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS NEAR 15N124W MOVING NW 13 KT. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH STRONG
TYPE INTENSITY CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE S SEMICIRCLE. UPPER NW WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE
N PORTION OF THE LOW...HOWEVER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH AT
09N104W NW TO 16N106W...MOVING W NEAR 16 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM WSW OF THE
WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM A 1008 MB LOW AT 07N111W
NW TO 15N116W...MOVING W 17 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 110W-115W. GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS IDENTIFIED ALONG AN AXIS THAT EXETNDS
FROM THE COSTA RICA/PANAMANIAN BORDER TO 07N95W TO 08N104W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 07N111W 1008 MB. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 83W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W-95W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 97W-100W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE SE AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
HAS BECOME VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WHILE
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER DRY SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS.
SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS ARE NOTED PROGRESSING E TO W ACROSS THE
DEEP TROPICS...WITH THE MORE NOTABLE ONES NOTED ONES BEING THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND TROPICAL LOWS REFERENCED IN THE DISCUSSION.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE CURRENT STATE OF ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

A 1029 MB HIGH CENTER IS WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 44N150W WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD TO 28N123W TO NEAR 21N116W. THE REMNANT LOW
OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM FELICIA IS NEAR 24N126W WITH A PRES OF
1015 MB MOVING W AT 10 KT. 15-20 KT WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NW QUADRANT WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN
MIXED SE AND SW SWELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELLS ARE
STILL EXPECTED FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 128W-132W THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY ON TUE.

AS THE REMNANT LOW HAS WEAKENED...THE RIDGE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE
NE WATERS AND ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE SW
UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE COMBINED TO FORCE MORE
TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS INCREASED THE PRES GRADIENT AND
THE WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LAST
NIGHT...BUT THE GRADIENT RELAXED SOME THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT
IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP EARLY TONIGHT TO ALLOW FOR NW
WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST FROM
ABOUT 25N-29N WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 8 FT. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO LET UP BY EARLY TUE WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT AND SUBSIDING TO JUST UNDER 8 FT.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER PRES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA FROM 10N-
15N W OF ABOUT 130W WITH SEAS THERE TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN SW
SWELLS. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF THE AREA
BY EARLY TUE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE 8 FT SEAS.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ABOUT THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...AND COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS TO
MAINTAIN ACTIVE TROPICAL CONVECTION W OF 90W THROUGH WED.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY THIS EVENING...THEN ARE
EXPECTED TO PULSE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE
WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8-9 FT WITH THESE PULSING WINDS. THESE
WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. SOME
RESIDUAL NE SWELLS PRODUCING SEAS TO 8 FT IS FORECAST TO REACH
NEAR 92W BY EARLY ON WED.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271606 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1007 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS NEAR 15N124W MOVING NW 13 KT. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH STRONG
TYPE INTENSITY CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE S SEMICIRCLE. UPPER NW WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE
N PORTION OF THE LOW...HOWEVER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH AT
09N104W NW TO 16N106W...MOVING W NEAR 16 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM WSW OF THE
WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM A 1008 MB LOW AT 07N111W
NW TO 15N116W...MOVING W 17 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 110W-115W. GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS IDENTIFIED ALONG AN AXIS THAT EXETNDS
FROM THE COSTA RICA/PANAMANIAN BORDER TO 07N95W TO 08N104W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 07N111W 1008 MB. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 83W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W-95W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 97W-100W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE SE AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
HAS BECOME VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WHILE
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER DRY SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS.
SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS ARE NOTED PROGRESSING E TO W ACROSS THE
DEEP TROPICS...WITH THE MORE NOTABLE ONES NOTED ONES BEING THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND TROPICAL LOWS REFERENCED IN THE DISCUSSION.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE CURRENT STATE OF ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

A 1029 MB HIGH CENTER IS WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 44N150W WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD TO 28N123W TO NEAR 21N116W. THE REMNANT LOW
OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM FELICIA IS NEAR 24N126W WITH A PRES OF
1015 MB MOVING W AT 10 KT. 15-20 KT WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NW QUADRANT WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN
MIXED SE AND SW SWELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELLS ARE
STILL EXPECTED FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 128W-132W THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY ON TUE.

AS THE REMNANT LOW HAS WEAKENED...THE RIDGE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE
NE WATERS AND ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE SW
UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE COMBINED TO FORCE MORE
TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS INCREASED THE PRES GRADIENT AND
THE WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LAST
NIGHT...BUT THE GRADIENT RELAXED SOME THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT
IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP EARLY TONIGHT TO ALLOW FOR NW
WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST FROM
ABOUT 25N-29N WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 8 FT. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO LET UP BY EARLY TUE WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT AND SUBSIDING TO JUST UNDER 8 FT.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER PRES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA FROM 10N-
15N W OF ABOUT 130W WITH SEAS THERE TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN SW
SWELLS. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF THE AREA
BY EARLY TUE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE 8 FT SEAS.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ABOUT THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...AND COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS TO
MAINTAIN ACTIVE TROPICAL CONVECTION W OF 90W THROUGH WED.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY THIS EVENING...THEN ARE
EXPECTED TO PULSE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE
WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8-9 FT WITH THESE PULSING WINDS. THESE
WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. SOME
RESIDUAL NE SWELLS PRODUCING SEAS TO 8 FT IS FORECAST TO REACH
NEAR 92W BY EARLY ON WED.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271606 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1007 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS NEAR 15N124W MOVING NW 13 KT. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH STRONG
TYPE INTENSITY CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE S SEMICIRCLE. UPPER NW WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE
N PORTION OF THE LOW...HOWEVER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH AT
09N104W NW TO 16N106W...MOVING W NEAR 16 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM WSW OF THE
WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM A 1008 MB LOW AT 07N111W
NW TO 15N116W...MOVING W 17 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 110W-115W. GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS IDENTIFIED ALONG AN AXIS THAT EXETNDS
FROM THE COSTA RICA/PANAMANIAN BORDER TO 07N95W TO 08N104W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 07N111W 1008 MB. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 83W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W-95W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 97W-100W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE SE AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
HAS BECOME VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WHILE
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER DRY SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS.
SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS ARE NOTED PROGRESSING E TO W ACROSS THE
DEEP TROPICS...WITH THE MORE NOTABLE ONES NOTED ONES BEING THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND TROPICAL LOWS REFERENCED IN THE DISCUSSION.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE CURRENT STATE OF ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

A 1029 MB HIGH CENTER IS WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 44N150W WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD TO 28N123W TO NEAR 21N116W. THE REMNANT LOW
OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM FELICIA IS NEAR 24N126W WITH A PRES OF
1015 MB MOVING W AT 10 KT. 15-20 KT WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NW QUADRANT WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN
MIXED SE AND SW SWELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELLS ARE
STILL EXPECTED FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 128W-132W THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY ON TUE.

AS THE REMNANT LOW HAS WEAKENED...THE RIDGE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE
NE WATERS AND ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE SW
UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE COMBINED TO FORCE MORE
TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS INCREASED THE PRES GRADIENT AND
THE WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LAST
NIGHT...BUT THE GRADIENT RELAXED SOME THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT
IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP EARLY TONIGHT TO ALLOW FOR NW
WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST FROM
ABOUT 25N-29N WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 8 FT. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO LET UP BY EARLY TUE WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT AND SUBSIDING TO JUST UNDER 8 FT.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER PRES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA FROM 10N-
15N W OF ABOUT 130W WITH SEAS THERE TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN SW
SWELLS. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF THE AREA
BY EARLY TUE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE 8 FT SEAS.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ABOUT THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...AND COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS TO
MAINTAIN ACTIVE TROPICAL CONVECTION W OF 90W THROUGH WED.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY THIS EVENING...THEN ARE
EXPECTED TO PULSE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE
WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8-9 FT WITH THESE PULSING WINDS. THESE
WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. SOME
RESIDUAL NE SWELLS PRODUCING SEAS TO 8 FT IS FORECAST TO REACH
NEAR 92W BY EARLY ON WED.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271606 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1007 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS NEAR 15N124W MOVING NW 13 KT. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH STRONG
TYPE INTENSITY CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE S SEMICIRCLE. UPPER NW WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE
N PORTION OF THE LOW...HOWEVER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH AT
09N104W NW TO 16N106W...MOVING W NEAR 16 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM WSW OF THE
WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM A 1008 MB LOW AT 07N111W
NW TO 15N116W...MOVING W 17 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 110W-115W. GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS IDENTIFIED ALONG AN AXIS THAT EXETNDS
FROM THE COSTA RICA/PANAMANIAN BORDER TO 07N95W TO 08N104W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 07N111W 1008 MB. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 83W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W-95W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 97W-100W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE SE AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
HAS BECOME VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WHILE
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER DRY SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS.
SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS ARE NOTED PROGRESSING E TO W ACROSS THE
DEEP TROPICS...WITH THE MORE NOTABLE ONES NOTED ONES BEING THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND TROPICAL LOWS REFERENCED IN THE DISCUSSION.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE CURRENT STATE OF ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

A 1029 MB HIGH CENTER IS WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 44N150W WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD TO 28N123W TO NEAR 21N116W. THE REMNANT LOW
OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM FELICIA IS NEAR 24N126W WITH A PRES OF
1015 MB MOVING W AT 10 KT. 15-20 KT WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NW QUADRANT WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN
MIXED SE AND SW SWELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELLS ARE
STILL EXPECTED FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 128W-132W THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY ON TUE.

AS THE REMNANT LOW HAS WEAKENED...THE RIDGE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE
NE WATERS AND ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE SW
UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE COMBINED TO FORCE MORE
TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS INCREASED THE PRES GRADIENT AND
THE WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LAST
NIGHT...BUT THE GRADIENT RELAXED SOME THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT
IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP EARLY TONIGHT TO ALLOW FOR NW
WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST FROM
ABOUT 25N-29N WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 8 FT. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO LET UP BY EARLY TUE WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT AND SUBSIDING TO JUST UNDER 8 FT.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER PRES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA FROM 10N-
15N W OF ABOUT 130W WITH SEAS THERE TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN SW
SWELLS. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF THE AREA
BY EARLY TUE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE 8 FT SEAS.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ABOUT THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...AND COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS TO
MAINTAIN ACTIVE TROPICAL CONVECTION W OF 90W THROUGH WED.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY THIS EVENING...THEN ARE
EXPECTED TO PULSE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE
WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8-9 FT WITH THESE PULSING WINDS. THESE
WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. SOME
RESIDUAL NE SWELLS PRODUCING SEAS TO 8 FT IS FORECAST TO REACH
NEAR 92W BY EARLY ON WED.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271606 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1007 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS NEAR 15N124W MOVING NW 13 KT. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH STRONG
TYPE INTENSITY CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE S SEMICIRCLE. UPPER NW WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE
N PORTION OF THE LOW...HOWEVER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH AT
09N104W NW TO 16N106W...MOVING W NEAR 16 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM WSW OF THE
WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM A 1008 MB LOW AT 07N111W
NW TO 15N116W...MOVING W 17 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 110W-115W. GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS IDENTIFIED ALONG AN AXIS THAT EXETNDS
FROM THE COSTA RICA/PANAMANIAN BORDER TO 07N95W TO 08N104W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 07N111W 1008 MB. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 83W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W-95W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 97W-100W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE SE AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
HAS BECOME VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WHILE
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER DRY SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS.
SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS ARE NOTED PROGRESSING E TO W ACROSS THE
DEEP TROPICS...WITH THE MORE NOTABLE ONES NOTED ONES BEING THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND TROPICAL LOWS REFERENCED IN THE DISCUSSION.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE CURRENT STATE OF ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

A 1029 MB HIGH CENTER IS WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 44N150W WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD TO 28N123W TO NEAR 21N116W. THE REMNANT LOW
OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM FELICIA IS NEAR 24N126W WITH A PRES OF
1015 MB MOVING W AT 10 KT. 15-20 KT WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NW QUADRANT WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN
MIXED SE AND SW SWELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELLS ARE
STILL EXPECTED FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 128W-132W THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY ON TUE.

AS THE REMNANT LOW HAS WEAKENED...THE RIDGE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE
NE WATERS AND ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE SW
UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE COMBINED TO FORCE MORE
TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS INCREASED THE PRES GRADIENT AND
THE WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LAST
NIGHT...BUT THE GRADIENT RELAXED SOME THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT
IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP EARLY TONIGHT TO ALLOW FOR NW
WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST FROM
ABOUT 25N-29N WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 8 FT. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO LET UP BY EARLY TUE WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT AND SUBSIDING TO JUST UNDER 8 FT.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER PRES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA FROM 10N-
15N W OF ABOUT 130W WITH SEAS THERE TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN SW
SWELLS. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF THE AREA
BY EARLY TUE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE 8 FT SEAS.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ABOUT THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...AND COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS TO
MAINTAIN ACTIVE TROPICAL CONVECTION W OF 90W THROUGH WED.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY THIS EVENING...THEN ARE
EXPECTED TO PULSE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE
WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8-9 FT WITH THESE PULSING WINDS. THESE
WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. SOME
RESIDUAL NE SWELLS PRODUCING SEAS TO 8 FT IS FORECAST TO REACH
NEAR 92W BY EARLY ON WED.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271602
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1007 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS NEAR 15N124W MOVING NW 13 KT. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH STRONG
TYPE INTENSITY CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE S SEMICIRCLE. UPPER NW WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE
N PORTION OF THE LOW...HOWEVER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH AT
09N104W NW TO 16N106W...MOVING W NEAR 16 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM WSW OF THE
WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM A 1008 MB LOW AT 07N111W
NW TO 15N116W...MOVING W 17 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 110W-115W. GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS IDENTIFIED ALONG AN AXIS THAT EXETNDS
FROM THE COSTA RICA/PANAMANIAN BORDER TO 07N95W TO 08N104W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 07N111W 1008 MB. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 83W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W-95W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 97W-100W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1029 MB HIGH IS WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 44N150W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SEWD TO 28N123W TO NEAR 21N116W. THE REMNANT LOW OF
FORMER TROPICAL STORM FELICIA IS NEAR 24N126W WITH A PRES OF 1015
MB MOVING W AT 10 KT. 15-20 KT WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NW
QUADRANT WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED
SE AND SW SWELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH LATER
THIS MORNING. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELLS ARE STILL
EXPECTED FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 128W-132W THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY ON TUE.

AS THE REMNANT LOW HAS WEAKENED...THE RIDGE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE
NE WATERS AND ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE SW
UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE COMBINED TO FORCE MORE
TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS INCREASED THE PRES GRADIENT AND
THE WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LAST
NIGHT...BUT THE GRADIENT RELAXED SOME THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT
IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP EARLY TONIGHT TO ALLOW FOR NW
WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST FROM
ABOUT 25N-29N WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 8 FT. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO LET UP BY EARLY TUE WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT AND SUBSIDING TO JUST UNDER 8 FT.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER PRES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA FROM 10N-
15N W OF ABOUT 130W WITH SEAS THERE TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN SW
SWELLS. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF THE AREA
BY EARLY TUE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE 8 FT SEAS.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ABOUT THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...AND COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS TO
MAINTAIN ACTIVE TROPICAL CONVECTION W OF 90W THROUGH WED.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY THIS EVENING...THEN ARE
EXPECTED TO PULSE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE
WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8-9 FT WITH THESE PULSING WINDS. THESE
WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. SOME
RESIDUAL NE SWELLS PRODUCING SEAS TO 8 FT IS FORECAST TO REACH
NEAR 92W BY EARLY ON WED.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271602
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1007 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS NEAR 15N124W MOVING NW 13 KT. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH STRONG
TYPE INTENSITY CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE S SEMICIRCLE. UPPER NW WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE
N PORTION OF THE LOW...HOWEVER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH AT
09N104W NW TO 16N106W...MOVING W NEAR 16 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM WSW OF THE
WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM A 1008 MB LOW AT 07N111W
NW TO 15N116W...MOVING W 17 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 110W-115W. GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS IDENTIFIED ALONG AN AXIS THAT EXETNDS
FROM THE COSTA RICA/PANAMANIAN BORDER TO 07N95W TO 08N104W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 07N111W 1008 MB. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 83W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W-95W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 97W-100W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1029 MB HIGH IS WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 44N150W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SEWD TO 28N123W TO NEAR 21N116W. THE REMNANT LOW OF
FORMER TROPICAL STORM FELICIA IS NEAR 24N126W WITH A PRES OF 1015
MB MOVING W AT 10 KT. 15-20 KT WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NW
QUADRANT WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED
SE AND SW SWELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH LATER
THIS MORNING. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELLS ARE STILL
EXPECTED FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 128W-132W THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY ON TUE.

AS THE REMNANT LOW HAS WEAKENED...THE RIDGE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE
NE WATERS AND ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE SW
UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE COMBINED TO FORCE MORE
TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS INCREASED THE PRES GRADIENT AND
THE WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LAST
NIGHT...BUT THE GRADIENT RELAXED SOME THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT
IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP EARLY TONIGHT TO ALLOW FOR NW
WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST FROM
ABOUT 25N-29N WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 8 FT. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO LET UP BY EARLY TUE WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT AND SUBSIDING TO JUST UNDER 8 FT.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER PRES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA FROM 10N-
15N W OF ABOUT 130W WITH SEAS THERE TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN SW
SWELLS. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF THE AREA
BY EARLY TUE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE 8 FT SEAS.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ABOUT THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...AND COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS TO
MAINTAIN ACTIVE TROPICAL CONVECTION W OF 90W THROUGH WED.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY THIS EVENING...THEN ARE
EXPECTED TO PULSE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE
WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8-9 FT WITH THESE PULSING WINDS. THESE
WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. SOME
RESIDUAL NE SWELLS PRODUCING SEAS TO 8 FT IS FORECAST TO REACH
NEAR 92W BY EARLY ON WED.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271142
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system located about 1050 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce
a large area of cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are
expected to be somewhat conducive for a tropical depression to form
around mid-week while the low moves west-northwestward at 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula have changed little overnight.  Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for slow development while
the disturbance moves generally westward this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271142
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system located about 1050 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce
a large area of cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are
expected to be somewhat conducive for a tropical depression to form
around mid-week while the low moves west-northwestward at 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula have changed little overnight.  Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for slow development while
the disturbance moves generally westward this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271142
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system located about 1050 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce
a large area of cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are
expected to be somewhat conducive for a tropical depression to form
around mid-week while the low moves west-northwestward at 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula have changed little overnight.  Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for slow development while
the disturbance moves generally westward this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271142
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system located about 1050 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce
a large area of cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are
expected to be somewhat conducive for a tropical depression to form
around mid-week while the low moves west-northwestward at 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula have changed little overnight.  Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for slow development while
the disturbance moves generally westward this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 271130
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT LUNES 27 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 271130
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT LUNES 27 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 271130
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT LUNES 27 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 271130
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT LUNES 27 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS



000
ACPN50 PHFO 271130
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON JUL 27 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

$$

RYSHKO




000
ACPN50 PHFO 271130
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON JUL 27 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

$$

RYSHKO





000
ACPN50 PHFO 271130
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON JUL 27 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

$$

RYSHKO





000
ACPN50 PHFO 271130
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON JUL 27 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

$$

RYSHKO





000
ACPN50 PHFO 271130
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON JUL 27 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

$$

RYSHKO





000
ABNT20 KNHC 271122
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


000
ABNT20 KNHC 271122
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



000
ABNT20 KNHC 271122
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


000
AXNT20 KNHC 271043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING AT
THIS TIME. AS THIS FEATURE PERSISTS...NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE E-
NE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN AROUND 28/0600 UTC LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N23W TO 20N20W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 18W-
25W WITH 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FOCUSED NEAR THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
09N-15N BETWEEN 15W-25W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N38W TO 18N37W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 33W-
43W WITH GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY
STRETCHED EAST-WEST FROM 10N-12N WITHIN THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW
TO MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGHING. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
LARGELY CONFINED WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM
06N-10N BETWEEN 30W-36W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N59W TO 19N59W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 56W-63W WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N77W TO 20N76W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 74W-83W
ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N64W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 74W-80W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
13N17W TO 12N25W TO 09N30W TO 09N37W TO 07N43W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N43W TO
07N51W TO 06N54W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N
BETWEEN 21W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES THE GULF BASIN THIS
MORNING ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND ARKLATEX REGION. WHILE PROVIDING A GENERALLY
STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT...A SURFACE WEAKNESS IN THE FORM OF A
1011 MB LOW CENTERED WEST OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA NEAR 28N83W AND
SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING GENERALLY WESTWARD FROM THE LOW TO
26N86W TO 27N90W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 82W-88W
WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY NOTED OVER THE EASTERN GULF THAT CONTINUES
TO PROVIDE MARGINAL LIFTING DYNAMICS FOR THE CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 10174 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 22N84W WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH DRIFTS
GRADUALLY NORTHWESTWARD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT OVER
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS MORNING WHICH IS LIMITING ANY
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF STRONG AND DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE
PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W IS GENERATING A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS...ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION NORTH OF JAMAICA AND ACROSS THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...THE PRIMARY MARINE IMPACT IS INCREASED
TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS REACHING STRONG TO NEAR GALE
FORCE BETWEEN 67W-79W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR THE MORNING HOURS. GIVEN DRY AND STABLE
AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY TO THE EAST...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLC WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES NEAR THE BASE
OF THE TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF THE DISCUSSION BORDER...ONE
NEAR 33N54W AND THE OTHER NEAR 33N69W. BOTH SUPPORT A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N55W TO 31N59W INTO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR
33N71W TO 31N90W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
GENERALLY N OF 29N BETWEEN 50W-60W...AND N OF 28N BETWEEN 65W-
79W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC...CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR
35N30W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SW TO 26N52W THEN
WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N78W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271008
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A COMPLEX TROPICAL WAVE WAS IDENTIFIED INVOF 124W-134W FROM 04N
TO 17N...WITH A TRAILING LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL PERTURBATION
PRODUCING A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 13N124W TO 17N122W. THE WAVE WAS
GENERALLY MOVING WWD NEAR 15 KT. RECENT 05-0600 UTC ASCAT PASSES
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 20-30 KT E TO SE WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
NE PORTIONS OF THE TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH...WERE SEAS ARE 8-10
FT. HOWEVER...A SURFACE LOW ANALYZED EARLIER TONIGHT WITH THIS
FEATURE IS NOT CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN THE ASCAT PASSES. CONVECTION
HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WHILE
INCREASING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 132W AND
138W. ELSEWHERE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 09N TO
16N BETWEEN 121W AND 141W. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL NW WIND IS
CURRENTLY PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE N
PORTIONS OF THIS FEATURE...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THIS FEATURE
MOVES W TO W-NW AROUND 15 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS INVOF 101W-103W FROM 06N-17N...MOVING W
AROUND 15-20 KT. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ABOUT THIS WAVE...MAINLY WITHIN
240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS INVOF 15N113W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR
07N110W...MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
ABOUT THIS WAVE OVERNIGHT...WITH SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 108W AND
115W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE
FROM 03N TO 14N BETWEEN 101W AND 117W. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE W-NW 15-20 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE
PAST 48 HOURS...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 08.5N78W TO 09N86W TO
07.5N96W TO LOW PRES 07N110W 1009 MB TO 10N116W...WHERE IT
BREAKS...THEN RESUMES FROM 08.5N129W TO BEYOND 11N141W.
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 240 NM S
OF AXIS BETWEEN 78W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN
24N NM N AND 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 107W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1030 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NW OF THE AREA NEAR
45N144W AND EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 30N129W TO 18N114W.
THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA WERE ANALYZED AS A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SW OF THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 24N125.5W MOVING W AROUND
10 KT. 05-0600 ASCAT PASSES SHOWED WINDS ONLY AS HIGH AS 20 KT
ACROSS THE NW QUADRANT...WHERE SEAS WERE TO 8 FT. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO OPEN UP...BECOMING A TROUGH LATER TODAY AS IT
CONTINUES WWD. WINDS TO 20 KT WITH 7-9 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TUE NEAR THE SYSTEM UNDER PRIMARILY SW SWELL.

AS THE REMNANT LOW HAS WEAKENED...THE RIDGE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE
NE WATERS AND ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE SW
UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FORCED MORE TROUGHING AT THE
SURFACE. THIS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS
OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS EVENING...BUT
HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN MON EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
8 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN BY TUE WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING WEAKENS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF THE
ITCZ W OF 125W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS WERE 7-9 FT IN NE WIND
WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF
130W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY TUE
MORNING.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ABOUT THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...AND COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS TO
MAINTAIN ACTIVE TROPICAL CONVECTION W OF 90W THROUGH WED.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SOUTHERLY DISPLACED RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N
ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN IT AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
OFFSHORE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITH
THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING THEN AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271008
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A COMPLEX TROPICAL WAVE WAS IDENTIFIED INVOF 124W-134W FROM 04N
TO 17N...WITH A TRAILING LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL PERTURBATION
PRODUCING A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 13N124W TO 17N122W. THE WAVE WAS
GENERALLY MOVING WWD NEAR 15 KT. RECENT 05-0600 UTC ASCAT PASSES
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 20-30 KT E TO SE WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
NE PORTIONS OF THE TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH...WERE SEAS ARE 8-10
FT. HOWEVER...A SURFACE LOW ANALYZED EARLIER TONIGHT WITH THIS
FEATURE IS NOT CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN THE ASCAT PASSES. CONVECTION
HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WHILE
INCREASING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 132W AND
138W. ELSEWHERE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 09N TO
16N BETWEEN 121W AND 141W. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL NW WIND IS
CURRENTLY PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE N
PORTIONS OF THIS FEATURE...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THIS FEATURE
MOVES W TO W-NW AROUND 15 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS INVOF 101W-103W FROM 06N-17N...MOVING W
AROUND 15-20 KT. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ABOUT THIS WAVE...MAINLY WITHIN
240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS INVOF 15N113W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR
07N110W...MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
ABOUT THIS WAVE OVERNIGHT...WITH SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 108W AND
115W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE
FROM 03N TO 14N BETWEEN 101W AND 117W. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE W-NW 15-20 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE
PAST 48 HOURS...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 08.5N78W TO 09N86W TO
07.5N96W TO LOW PRES 07N110W 1009 MB TO 10N116W...WHERE IT
BREAKS...THEN RESUMES FROM 08.5N129W TO BEYOND 11N141W.
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 240 NM S
OF AXIS BETWEEN 78W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN
24N NM N AND 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 107W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1030 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NW OF THE AREA NEAR
45N144W AND EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 30N129W TO 18N114W.
THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA WERE ANALYZED AS A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SW OF THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 24N125.5W MOVING W AROUND
10 KT. 05-0600 ASCAT PASSES SHOWED WINDS ONLY AS HIGH AS 20 KT
ACROSS THE NW QUADRANT...WHERE SEAS WERE TO 8 FT. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO OPEN UP...BECOMING A TROUGH LATER TODAY AS IT
CONTINUES WWD. WINDS TO 20 KT WITH 7-9 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TUE NEAR THE SYSTEM UNDER PRIMARILY SW SWELL.

AS THE REMNANT LOW HAS WEAKENED...THE RIDGE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE
NE WATERS AND ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE SW
UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FORCED MORE TROUGHING AT THE
SURFACE. THIS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS
OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS EVENING...BUT
HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN MON EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
8 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN BY TUE WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING WEAKENS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF THE
ITCZ W OF 125W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS WERE 7-9 FT IN NE WIND
WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF
130W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY TUE
MORNING.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ABOUT THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...AND COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS TO
MAINTAIN ACTIVE TROPICAL CONVECTION W OF 90W THROUGH WED.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SOUTHERLY DISPLACED RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N
ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN IT AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
OFFSHORE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITH
THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING THEN AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271008
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A COMPLEX TROPICAL WAVE WAS IDENTIFIED INVOF 124W-134W FROM 04N
TO 17N...WITH A TRAILING LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL PERTURBATION
PRODUCING A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 13N124W TO 17N122W. THE WAVE WAS
GENERALLY MOVING WWD NEAR 15 KT. RECENT 05-0600 UTC ASCAT PASSES
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 20-30 KT E TO SE WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
NE PORTIONS OF THE TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH...WERE SEAS ARE 8-10
FT. HOWEVER...A SURFACE LOW ANALYZED EARLIER TONIGHT WITH THIS
FEATURE IS NOT CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN THE ASCAT PASSES. CONVECTION
HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WHILE
INCREASING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 132W AND
138W. ELSEWHERE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 09N TO
16N BETWEEN 121W AND 141W. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL NW WIND IS
CURRENTLY PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE N
PORTIONS OF THIS FEATURE...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THIS FEATURE
MOVES W TO W-NW AROUND 15 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS INVOF 101W-103W FROM 06N-17N...MOVING W
AROUND 15-20 KT. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ABOUT THIS WAVE...MAINLY WITHIN
240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS INVOF 15N113W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR
07N110W...MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
ABOUT THIS WAVE OVERNIGHT...WITH SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 108W AND
115W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE
FROM 03N TO 14N BETWEEN 101W AND 117W. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE W-NW 15-20 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE
PAST 48 HOURS...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 08.5N78W TO 09N86W TO
07.5N96W TO LOW PRES 07N110W 1009 MB TO 10N116W...WHERE IT
BREAKS...THEN RESUMES FROM 08.5N129W TO BEYOND 11N141W.
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 240 NM S
OF AXIS BETWEEN 78W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN
24N NM N AND 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 107W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1030 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NW OF THE AREA NEAR
45N144W AND EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 30N129W TO 18N114W.
THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA WERE ANALYZED AS A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SW OF THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 24N125.5W MOVING W AROUND
10 KT. 05-0600 ASCAT PASSES SHOWED WINDS ONLY AS HIGH AS 20 KT
ACROSS THE NW QUADRANT...WHERE SEAS WERE TO 8 FT. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO OPEN UP...BECOMING A TROUGH LATER TODAY AS IT
CONTINUES WWD. WINDS TO 20 KT WITH 7-9 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TUE NEAR THE SYSTEM UNDER PRIMARILY SW SWELL.

AS THE REMNANT LOW HAS WEAKENED...THE RIDGE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE
NE WATERS AND ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE SW
UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FORCED MORE TROUGHING AT THE
SURFACE. THIS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS
OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS EVENING...BUT
HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN MON EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
8 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN BY TUE WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING WEAKENS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF THE
ITCZ W OF 125W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS WERE 7-9 FT IN NE WIND
WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF
130W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY TUE
MORNING.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ABOUT THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...AND COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS TO
MAINTAIN ACTIVE TROPICAL CONVECTION W OF 90W THROUGH WED.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SOUTHERLY DISPLACED RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N
ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN IT AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
OFFSHORE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITH
THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING THEN AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

$$
STRIPLING



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 271002
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT LUNES 27 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 270543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING AT
THIS TIME. AS THIS FEATURE PERSISTS...NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE E-
NE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN AROUND 28/0600 UTC LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N19W TO 18N20W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 17W-
24W WITH 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FOCUSED AROUND A 1014 MB LOW
CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-15N BETWEEN 14W-23W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N33W TO 16N33W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 29W-40W
WITH GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY STRETCHED
EAST-WEST FROM 10N-12N WITHIN THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVEL TROUGHING. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LARGELY
CONFINED WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N-10N
BETWEEN 26W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N56W TO 16N55W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 50W-60W WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N74W TO 20N73W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 70W-82W
ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N64W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
11N15W TO 10N23W TO 08N33W TO 08N42W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N42W TO 08N52W TO 06N58W.
NO AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES
MENTIONED ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES THE GULF BASIN THIS
EVENING ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND ARKLATEX REGION. WHILE PROVIDING A GENERALLY
STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT...A SURFACE WEAKNESS IN THE FORM OF A
1011 MB LOW CENTERED WEST OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA NEAR 28N84W AND
SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW TO 27N87W TO
28N90W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 82W-89W WITH MID-
LEVEL ENERGY NOTED OVER THE EASTERN GULF THAT CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE MARGINAL LIFTING DYNAMICS FOR THE CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1014 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 24N89W WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH DRIFTS
GRADUALLY NORTHWESTWARD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT OVER
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS EVENING WHICH IS LIMITING ANY
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF STRONG AND DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE
PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W IS GENERATING A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS...ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION. OTHERWISE...THE PRIMARY MARINE IMPACT
ARE INCREASED TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS REACHING STRONG TO
NEAR GALE FORCE BETWEEN 67W-79W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN DRY AND STABLE
AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY TO THE EAST...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLC WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES NEAR THE BASE
OF THE TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF THE DISCUSSION BORDER...ONE
NEAR 33N56W AND THE OTHER NEAR 32N71W. BOTH SUPPORT A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM 33N56W TO 31N62W TO 33N73W TO 31N79W. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS GENERALLY N OF 28N BETWEEN
52W-63W...AND N OF 27N BETWEEN 67W-79W. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC...CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB
HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N32W. THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SW TO 25N57W THEN WESTWARD TO THE NW
BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 270543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING AT
THIS TIME. AS THIS FEATURE PERSISTS...NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE E-
NE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN AROUND 28/0600 UTC LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N19W TO 18N20W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 17W-
24W WITH 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FOCUSED AROUND A 1014 MB LOW
CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-15N BETWEEN 14W-23W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N33W TO 16N33W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 29W-40W
WITH GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY STRETCHED
EAST-WEST FROM 10N-12N WITHIN THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVEL TROUGHING. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LARGELY
CONFINED WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N-10N
BETWEEN 26W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N56W TO 16N55W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 50W-60W WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N74W TO 20N73W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 70W-82W
ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N64W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
11N15W TO 10N23W TO 08N33W TO 08N42W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N42W TO 08N52W TO 06N58W.
NO AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES
MENTIONED ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES THE GULF BASIN THIS
EVENING ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND ARKLATEX REGION. WHILE PROVIDING A GENERALLY
STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT...A SURFACE WEAKNESS IN THE FORM OF A
1011 MB LOW CENTERED WEST OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA NEAR 28N84W AND
SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW TO 27N87W TO
28N90W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 82W-89W WITH MID-
LEVEL ENERGY NOTED OVER THE EASTERN GULF THAT CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE MARGINAL LIFTING DYNAMICS FOR THE CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1014 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 24N89W WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH DRIFTS
GRADUALLY NORTHWESTWARD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT OVER
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS EVENING WHICH IS LIMITING ANY
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF STRONG AND DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE
PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W IS GENERATING A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS...ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION. OTHERWISE...THE PRIMARY MARINE IMPACT
ARE INCREASED TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS REACHING STRONG TO
NEAR GALE FORCE BETWEEN 67W-79W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN DRY AND STABLE
AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY TO THE EAST...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLC WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES NEAR THE BASE
OF THE TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF THE DISCUSSION BORDER...ONE
NEAR 33N56W AND THE OTHER NEAR 32N71W. BOTH SUPPORT A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM 33N56W TO 31N62W TO 33N73W TO 31N79W. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS GENERALLY N OF 28N BETWEEN
52W-63W...AND N OF 27N BETWEEN 67W-79W. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC...CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB
HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N32W. THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SW TO 25N57W THEN WESTWARD TO THE NW
BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 270543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING AT
THIS TIME. AS THIS FEATURE PERSISTS...NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE E-
NE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN AROUND 28/0600 UTC LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N19W TO 18N20W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 17W-
24W WITH 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FOCUSED AROUND A 1014 MB LOW
CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-15N BETWEEN 14W-23W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N33W TO 16N33W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 29W-40W
WITH GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY STRETCHED
EAST-WEST FROM 10N-12N WITHIN THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVEL TROUGHING. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LARGELY
CONFINED WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N-10N
BETWEEN 26W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N56W TO 16N55W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 50W-60W WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N74W TO 20N73W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 70W-82W
ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N64W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
11N15W TO 10N23W TO 08N33W TO 08N42W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N42W TO 08N52W TO 06N58W.
NO AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES
MENTIONED ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES THE GULF BASIN THIS
EVENING ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND ARKLATEX REGION. WHILE PROVIDING A GENERALLY
STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT...A SURFACE WEAKNESS IN THE FORM OF A
1011 MB LOW CENTERED WEST OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA NEAR 28N84W AND
SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW TO 27N87W TO
28N90W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 82W-89W WITH MID-
LEVEL ENERGY NOTED OVER THE EASTERN GULF THAT CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE MARGINAL LIFTING DYNAMICS FOR THE CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1014 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 24N89W WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH DRIFTS
GRADUALLY NORTHWESTWARD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT OVER
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS EVENING WHICH IS LIMITING ANY
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF STRONG AND DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE
PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W IS GENERATING A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS...ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION. OTHERWISE...THE PRIMARY MARINE IMPACT
ARE INCREASED TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS REACHING STRONG TO
NEAR GALE FORCE BETWEEN 67W-79W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN DRY AND STABLE
AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY TO THE EAST...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLC WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES NEAR THE BASE
OF THE TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF THE DISCUSSION BORDER...ONE
NEAR 33N56W AND THE OTHER NEAR 32N71W. BOTH SUPPORT A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM 33N56W TO 31N62W TO 33N73W TO 31N79W. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS GENERALLY N OF 28N BETWEEN
52W-63W...AND N OF 27N BETWEEN 67W-79W. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC...CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB
HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N32W. THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SW TO 25N57W THEN WESTWARD TO THE NW
BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
ACPN50 PHFO 270530
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SUN JUL 26 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

$$

RYSHKO





000
ACPN50 PHFO 270530
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SUN JUL 26 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

$$

RYSHKO




000
ABPZ20 KNHC 270501
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower activity associated with a low pressure system located about
1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is limited and disorganized. Even though environmental
conditions are expected to be only somewhat conducive for
development, a tropical depression is still likely to form around
mid-week while the low moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula have increased since yesterday.  Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for slow development while
the disturbance moves generally westward this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABNT20 KNHC 270500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABNT20 KNHC 270500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABNT20 KNHC 270500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABNT20 KNHC 270500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABNT20 KNHC 270500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABNT20 KNHC 270500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABNT20 KNHC 270500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABNT20 KNHC 270500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270239
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS ANALYZED NEAR 14N121W MOVING
NW AT 14 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM E
SEMICIRCLE AND SW QUADRANT AND SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 150 NM AND 300 NM W QUADRANT. THE
ASCAT PASS FROM 1758 UTC SHOWED WINDS TO 30 KT IN THE E
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES W-NW AROUND 15 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 99W FROM 08N-17N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 08N-10N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 109W FROM 06N-16N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 270 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 06N-14N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE WAVE
FROM 06N-12N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 18N125W TO 09N129W. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 09N-14N W OF WAVE TO 138W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N77W TO 05N89W TO
08N100W TO 06N111W TO LOW PRES 14N121W TO 08N130W TO 10N140W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM S AND
120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 84W-100W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W-115W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 127W-134W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1031 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NW OF THE AREA NEAR
44N155W AND EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N127W TO 17N112W.
THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA WERE ANALYZED AS A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SW OF THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 25N125W MOVING W AROUND 5
KT. THE ASCAT PASS AT 1754 UTC SHOWED WINDS ONLY AS HIGH AS 20
KT IN THE NW QUADRANT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP...BECOMING
A TROUGH MON. WINDS TO 20 KT WITH 7-9 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TUE NEAR THE SYSTEM UNDER PRIMARILY SW SWELL.

AS THE REMNANT LOW WEAKENED...THE RIDGE BUILT ACROSS NE WATERS
OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP-
LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL LOW
MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
FORCED MORE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS INCREASED THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS LIE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND RETURN MON EVENING...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN BY TUE WHEN
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING WEAKENS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF THE
ITCZ W OF 125W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS WERE 7-9 FT IN NE WIND
WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF
130W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY TUE
MORNING.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SOUTHERLY DISPLACED RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N
ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN IT AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
OFFSHORE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITH
THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
MON NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

$$
SCHAUER


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270239
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS ANALYZED NEAR 14N121W MOVING
NW AT 14 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM E
SEMICIRCLE AND SW QUADRANT AND SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 150 NM AND 300 NM W QUADRANT. THE
ASCAT PASS FROM 1758 UTC SHOWED WINDS TO 30 KT IN THE E
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES W-NW AROUND 15 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 99W FROM 08N-17N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 08N-10N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 109W FROM 06N-16N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 270 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 06N-14N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE WAVE
FROM 06N-12N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 18N125W TO 09N129W. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 09N-14N W OF WAVE TO 138W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N77W TO 05N89W TO
08N100W TO 06N111W TO LOW PRES 14N121W TO 08N130W TO 10N140W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM S AND
120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 84W-100W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W-115W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 127W-134W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1031 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NW OF THE AREA NEAR
44N155W AND EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N127W TO 17N112W.
THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA WERE ANALYZED AS A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SW OF THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 25N125W MOVING W AROUND 5
KT. THE ASCAT PASS AT 1754 UTC SHOWED WINDS ONLY AS HIGH AS 20
KT IN THE NW QUADRANT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP...BECOMING
A TROUGH MON. WINDS TO 20 KT WITH 7-9 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TUE NEAR THE SYSTEM UNDER PRIMARILY SW SWELL.

AS THE REMNANT LOW WEAKENED...THE RIDGE BUILT ACROSS NE WATERS
OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP-
LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL LOW
MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
FORCED MORE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS INCREASED THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS LIE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND RETURN MON EVENING...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN BY TUE WHEN
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING WEAKENS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF THE
ITCZ W OF 125W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS WERE 7-9 FT IN NE WIND
WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF
130W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY TUE
MORNING.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SOUTHERLY DISPLACED RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N
ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN IT AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
OFFSHORE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITH
THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
MON NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

$$
SCHAUER


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270239
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS ANALYZED NEAR 14N121W MOVING
NW AT 14 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM E
SEMICIRCLE AND SW QUADRANT AND SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 150 NM AND 300 NM W QUADRANT. THE
ASCAT PASS FROM 1758 UTC SHOWED WINDS TO 30 KT IN THE E
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES W-NW AROUND 15 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 99W FROM 08N-17N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 08N-10N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 109W FROM 06N-16N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 270 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 06N-14N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE WAVE
FROM 06N-12N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 18N125W TO 09N129W. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 09N-14N W OF WAVE TO 138W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N77W TO 05N89W TO
08N100W TO 06N111W TO LOW PRES 14N121W TO 08N130W TO 10N140W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM S AND
120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 84W-100W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W-115W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 127W-134W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1031 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NW OF THE AREA NEAR
44N155W AND EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N127W TO 17N112W.
THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA WERE ANALYZED AS A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SW OF THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 25N125W MOVING W AROUND 5
KT. THE ASCAT PASS AT 1754 UTC SHOWED WINDS ONLY AS HIGH AS 20
KT IN THE NW QUADRANT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP...BECOMING
A TROUGH MON. WINDS TO 20 KT WITH 7-9 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TUE NEAR THE SYSTEM UNDER PRIMARILY SW SWELL.

AS THE REMNANT LOW WEAKENED...THE RIDGE BUILT ACROSS NE WATERS
OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP-
LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL LOW
MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
FORCED MORE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS INCREASED THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS LIE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND RETURN MON EVENING...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN BY TUE WHEN
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING WEAKENS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF THE
ITCZ W OF 125W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS WERE 7-9 FT IN NE WIND
WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF
130W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY TUE
MORNING.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SOUTHERLY DISPLACED RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N
ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN IT AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
OFFSHORE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITH
THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
MON NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

$$
SCHAUER


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270239
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS ANALYZED NEAR 14N121W MOVING
NW AT 14 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM E
SEMICIRCLE AND SW QUADRANT AND SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 150 NM AND 300 NM W QUADRANT. THE
ASCAT PASS FROM 1758 UTC SHOWED WINDS TO 30 KT IN THE E
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES W-NW AROUND 15 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 99W FROM 08N-17N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 08N-10N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 109W FROM 06N-16N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 270 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 06N-14N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE WAVE
FROM 06N-12N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 18N125W TO 09N129W. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 09N-14N W OF WAVE TO 138W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N77W TO 05N89W TO
08N100W TO 06N111W TO LOW PRES 14N121W TO 08N130W TO 10N140W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM S AND
120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 84W-100W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W-115W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 127W-134W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1031 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NW OF THE AREA NEAR
44N155W AND EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N127W TO 17N112W.
THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA WERE ANALYZED AS A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SW OF THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 25N125W MOVING W AROUND 5
KT. THE ASCAT PASS AT 1754 UTC SHOWED WINDS ONLY AS HIGH AS 20
KT IN THE NW QUADRANT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP...BECOMING
A TROUGH MON. WINDS TO 20 KT WITH 7-9 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TUE NEAR THE SYSTEM UNDER PRIMARILY SW SWELL.

AS THE REMNANT LOW WEAKENED...THE RIDGE BUILT ACROSS NE WATERS
OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP-
LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL LOW
MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
FORCED MORE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS INCREASED THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS LIE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND RETURN MON EVENING...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN BY TUE WHEN
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING WEAKENS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF THE
ITCZ W OF 125W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS WERE 7-9 FT IN NE WIND
WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF
130W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY TUE
MORNING.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SOUTHERLY DISPLACED RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N
ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN IT AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
OFFSHORE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITH
THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
MON NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

$$
SCHAUER


000
AXNT20 KNHC 270005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. ITS AXIS IS ALONG 19W...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 10
TO 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED
WITH A MODERATE AIRMASS THAT ALONG WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 18W AND 22W AND SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 12N E OF 19W. THE REMAINDER WAVE
ENVIRONMENT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SAHARAN DRY AIR AND
DUST...WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG
32W...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15 KT. SHALLOW MOISTURE IS AHEAD
OF THE WAVE AXIS WHILE A SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE IS
BEHIND IT. UPPER-LEVEL WIND DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION SE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN
25W AND 34W. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST COVER THE NORTHERN WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...THUS HINDERING CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 360 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH
AXIS NEAR 54W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY AND ENHANCED
METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR AND DUST OVER THE ENTIRE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...THUS SUPPORTING LACK OF CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 73W
...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW DRY
AIR AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS AND A MODERATE TO DEEP MOIST AIRMASS
BEHIND IT...WHICH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER
HISPANIOLA AND SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
10N15W TO 08N30W TO 07N42W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 07N42W AND
CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF GUYANA. FOR CONVECTION
INFORMATION...SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS COVERS THE
EASTERN GULF S OF 29N AND EXTENDS W-NW TO INLAND SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND FAR EASTERN TEXAS. THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER W OF TAMPA NEAR 27N83W FROM
WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N82W TO THE LOW TO 25N85W.
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N84W. AT THE UPPER-LEVELS...THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SUPPORT AT 1014 MB HIGH NEAR
24N89W. VARIABLE WIND IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 10 KT DOMINATES THE
BASIN...EXCEPT OVER THE SE GULF WHERE SW TO W FLOW OF 15 KT IS
OBSERVED. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE E GULF WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS WHILE A WEAK RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER
BASIN. THE UPPER LOW ALONG SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE NW BASIN
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG CUBA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE E OF
ITS AXIS THAT SUPPORTS SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN WATERS. DEEP LAYER DRY
AIR DOMINATES ELSEWHERE...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE S-SW CARIBBEAN
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE W
BASIN BRINGING SHOWERS TO JAMAICA MONDAY...AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E
CARIBBEAN MONDAY EVENING.

...HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED
WITH A MODERATE MOIST AIRMASS E OF ITS AXIS THAT ENHANCES
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN
ADJACENT WATERS. THE WAVE WILL BE WEST OF THE ISLAND BY MONDAY
AND DRY AIR TRAILING THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND...THUS
SUPPRESSING SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT AT THE MIDDLE-LEVELS COVER THE FAR
SW N ATLC BASIN AND ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN THIS REGION
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF
72W...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. ANOTHER REGION OF
DIFFLUENCE IN THE UPPER-LEVELS SUPPORT SIMILAR CONVECTION N OF
25N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W. THE REMAINDER BASIN N OF 16N CONTINUES
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE...WHICH SUPPORT
FAIR WEATHER. FOR TROPICAL WAVES INFORMATION...SEE SECTION AT THE
TOP OF THE DISCUSSION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 270005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. ITS AXIS IS ALONG 19W...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 10
TO 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED
WITH A MODERATE AIRMASS THAT ALONG WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 18W AND 22W AND SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 12N E OF 19W. THE REMAINDER WAVE
ENVIRONMENT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SAHARAN DRY AIR AND
DUST...WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG
32W...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15 KT. SHALLOW MOISTURE IS AHEAD
OF THE WAVE AXIS WHILE A SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE IS
BEHIND IT. UPPER-LEVEL WIND DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION SE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN
25W AND 34W. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST COVER THE NORTHERN WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...THUS HINDERING CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 360 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH
AXIS NEAR 54W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY AND ENHANCED
METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR AND DUST OVER THE ENTIRE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...THUS SUPPORTING LACK OF CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 73W
...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW DRY
AIR AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS AND A MODERATE TO DEEP MOIST AIRMASS
BEHIND IT...WHICH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER
HISPANIOLA AND SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
10N15W TO 08N30W TO 07N42W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 07N42W AND
CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF GUYANA. FOR CONVECTION
INFORMATION...SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS COVERS THE
EASTERN GULF S OF 29N AND EXTENDS W-NW TO INLAND SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND FAR EASTERN TEXAS. THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER W OF TAMPA NEAR 27N83W FROM
WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N82W TO THE LOW TO 25N85W.
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N84W. AT THE UPPER-LEVELS...THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SUPPORT AT 1014 MB HIGH NEAR
24N89W. VARIABLE WIND IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 10 KT DOMINATES THE
BASIN...EXCEPT OVER THE SE GULF WHERE SW TO W FLOW OF 15 KT IS
OBSERVED. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE E GULF WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS WHILE A WEAK RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER
BASIN. THE UPPER LOW ALONG SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE NW BASIN
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG CUBA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE E OF
ITS AXIS THAT SUPPORTS SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN WATERS. DEEP LAYER DRY
AIR DOMINATES ELSEWHERE...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE S-SW CARIBBEAN
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE W
BASIN BRINGING SHOWERS TO JAMAICA MONDAY...AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E
CARIBBEAN MONDAY EVENING.

...HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED
WITH A MODERATE MOIST AIRMASS E OF ITS AXIS THAT ENHANCES
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN
ADJACENT WATERS. THE WAVE WILL BE WEST OF THE ISLAND BY MONDAY
AND DRY AIR TRAILING THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND...THUS
SUPPRESSING SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT AT THE MIDDLE-LEVELS COVER THE FAR
SW N ATLC BASIN AND ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN THIS REGION
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF
72W...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. ANOTHER REGION OF
DIFFLUENCE IN THE UPPER-LEVELS SUPPORT SIMILAR CONVECTION N OF
25N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W. THE REMAINDER BASIN N OF 16N CONTINUES
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE...WHICH SUPPORT
FAIR WEATHER. FOR TROPICAL WAVES INFORMATION...SEE SECTION AT THE
TOP OF THE DISCUSSION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 262350
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located about 1000 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental
conditions are somewhat conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by Wednesday while the low moves west-
northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are associated with a
westward-moving tropical wave.  Environmental conditions could be
conducive for slow development of this system later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 262350
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located about 1000 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental
conditions are somewhat conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by Wednesday while the low moves west-
northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are associated with a
westward-moving tropical wave.  Environmental conditions could be
conducive for slow development of this system later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
ACPN50 PHFO 262349
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SUN JUL 26 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

BURKE






000
ACPN50 PHFO 262349
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SUN JUL 26 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

BURKE





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 262312
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT DOMINGO 26 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 262312
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT DOMINGO 26 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH


000
ABNT20 KNHC 262308
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABNT20 KNHC 262308
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABNT20 KNHC 262308
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABNT20 KNHC 262308
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
ABNT20 KNHC 262308
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABNT20 KNHC 262308
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262148
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUL 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS ANALYZED NEAR 12N119W MOVING
NW AT 13 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1758 UTC SHOWED WINDS TO 30 KT
IN THE E SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES W-NW AROUND 10-15 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 98W FROM 08N TO 16N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 96W-101W.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 108W FROM 07N-16N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 105W-114W WHILE SCATTERED
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 10N-14N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 16N125W TO 09N128W. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 125W-130W AND FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 122W-128W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N78W TO 05N88W TO
08N99W TO 06N110W TO 07N114W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM
LOW PRES NEAR 12N119W TO 12N122W TO 08N130W TO 10N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 02N TO 06N E OF
89W...WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS W OF 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 90 NM AND 270 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1033 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NW OF THE AREA NEAR
44N157W AND EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N123W TO 16N111W.
THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA WERE ANALYZED AS A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SW OF THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 25N125W. THE ASCAT PASS AT
1754 UTC SHOWED WINDS ONLY AS HIGH AS 20 KT IN THE NW QUADRANT.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP...BECOMING A TROUGH MON. WINDS TO
20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUE NEAR
THE SYSTEM UNDER PRIMARILY SW SWELL.

AS THE REMNANT LOW WEAKENED...THE RIDGE WILL BUILT ACROSS NE
WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AT THE SAME
TIME...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A
MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA FORCED MORE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS HAS
INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE. MODERATE
TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT AND MON
NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF THE
ITCZ W OF 125W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS WERE 7-9 FT IN NE WIND
WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF
130W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY TUE
MORNING.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SOUTHERLY DISPLACED RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N
ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN IT AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
OFFSHORE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITH
THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
MON NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

$$
SCHAUER



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262148
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUL 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS ANALYZED NEAR 12N119W MOVING
NW AT 13 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1758 UTC SHOWED WINDS TO 30 KT
IN THE E SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES W-NW AROUND 10-15 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 98W FROM 08N TO 16N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 96W-101W.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 108W FROM 07N-16N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 105W-114W WHILE SCATTERED
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 10N-14N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 16N125W TO 09N128W. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 125W-130W AND FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 122W-128W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N78W TO 05N88W TO
08N99W TO 06N110W TO 07N114W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM
LOW PRES NEAR 12N119W TO 12N122W TO 08N130W TO 10N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 02N TO 06N E OF
89W...WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS W OF 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 90 NM AND 270 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1033 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NW OF THE AREA NEAR
44N157W AND EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N123W TO 16N111W.
THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA WERE ANALYZED AS A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SW OF THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 25N125W. THE ASCAT PASS AT
1754 UTC SHOWED WINDS ONLY AS HIGH AS 20 KT IN THE NW QUADRANT.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP...BECOMING A TROUGH MON. WINDS TO
20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUE NEAR
THE SYSTEM UNDER PRIMARILY SW SWELL.

AS THE REMNANT LOW WEAKENED...THE RIDGE WILL BUILT ACROSS NE
WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AT THE SAME
TIME...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A
MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA FORCED MORE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS HAS
INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE. MODERATE
TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT AND MON
NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF THE
ITCZ W OF 125W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS WERE 7-9 FT IN NE WIND
WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF
130W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY TUE
MORNING.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SOUTHERLY DISPLACED RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N
ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN IT AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
OFFSHORE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITH
THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
MON NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

$$
SCHAUER


000
AXNT20 KNHC 261805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT WAS
SUPPORTING GALE-FORCE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS JUST BELOW
GALE-FORCE. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A RETURN OF GALE-FORCE WINDS FORECAST BY 0600Z
TUESDAY MORNING FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. SEA HEIGHTS
WILL RANGE FROM 11 FEET TO 16 FEET. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/ FZNT23 KNHC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 16N31W TO 08N31W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE LOW THAT WAS ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE HAS BEEN
LEFT BEHIND AND HAS WEAKENED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH.
MODERATE MOISTURE IS N OF 11N ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WITH SAHARAN
DUST EVIDENT N OF 14N...WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
06N TO 09N BETWEEN 29W AND 33W...WHICH MAY ALSO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 16N50W TO 06N51W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THIS WAVE APPEARS IN 700 MB MODEL ANALYSIS WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH BETWEEN 49W AND 53W. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE
EMBEDDED IN SAHARAN DUST N OF 9N...WHICH IS INHIBITING
CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N69W TO 11N70W...MOVING W TO WNW AT 20 TO 25 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE SSMI
TPW IMAGERY...ACCOMPANYING AN AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT.
VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRM A WELL DEFINED INVERTED
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 67W AND
73W...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
13N16W TO 09N27W TO 08N39W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS
TO 06N49W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100NM
N AND 200 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTED A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND INTO THE NE GULF THIS MORNING. SINCE THAT
TIME...IT WAS NOTED THAT THE STATIONARY FRONT TRANSITIONED INTO
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AS OF 1500 UTC EXTENDED FROM NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI AT 29N89W TO A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE
LOW CENTER OF 1011 MB ABOUT 30 NM W OF SARASOTA...FL NEAR
27N83W...AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL FL TO THE W ATLC. DEEP MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD
TROUGH AND LOW CENTER SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 250 NM S AND W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. MAINLY E WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KT ARE N OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SW TO W WINDS ARE WITHIN
100 NM S AND W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM W
CUBA TO THE TX COAST IS PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. LASTLY...A CONVECTION FREE
DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM 22N94W TO
18N95W. THE LOW AND TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODELS ARE
FORECASTING AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SFC
TROUGH WHICH WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. OVERALL...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH MID WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

OTHER THAN THE TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION...DRY AIR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA SUPPORTING GALE
FORCE WINDS THIS MORNING OVER A PORTION OF THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WINDS DROPPING BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS S OF 17N BETWEEN 71W AND 79W. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT WINDS TO 25 KT
NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER JAMAICA BY MONDAY...AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING S HISPANIOLA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO NEAR 20 KT. THE WAVE WILL GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER S HAITI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WAVE WILL BE WEST OF THE ISLAND BY MONDAY WITH A
RETURN OF DRY AIR. THIS SHOULD INHIBIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC WAS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC THAT AS OF 1500 UTC HAS TRANSITIONED
INTO A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO CENTRAL FL
NEAR 29N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 275
NW SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA OF
DISCUSSION IS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 57W AND 75W. A
1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N34W SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE SUBTROPICAL N ATLC E OF 50W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES
ARE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE ALONG AND WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED NM S OF THE NEARLY
STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL FL AND OFFSHORE ATLC
WATERS INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS. CONVECTION
WILL ALSO CONTINUE N OF 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 75W NEAR A STATIONARY
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 261805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT WAS
SUPPORTING GALE-FORCE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS JUST BELOW
GALE-FORCE. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A RETURN OF GALE-FORCE WINDS FORECAST BY 0600Z
TUESDAY MORNING FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. SEA HEIGHTS
WILL RANGE FROM 11 FEET TO 16 FEET. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/ FZNT23 KNHC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 16N31W TO 08N31W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE LOW THAT WAS ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE HAS BEEN
LEFT BEHIND AND HAS WEAKENED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH.
MODERATE MOISTURE IS N OF 11N ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WITH SAHARAN
DUST EVIDENT N OF 14N...WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
06N TO 09N BETWEEN 29W AND 33W...WHICH MAY ALSO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 16N50W TO 06N51W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THIS WAVE APPEARS IN 700 MB MODEL ANALYSIS WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH BETWEEN 49W AND 53W. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE
EMBEDDED IN SAHARAN DUST N OF 9N...WHICH IS INHIBITING
CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N69W TO 11N70W...MOVING W TO WNW AT 20 TO 25 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE SSMI
TPW IMAGERY...ACCOMPANYING AN AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT.
VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRM A WELL DEFINED INVERTED
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 67W AND
73W...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
13N16W TO 09N27W TO 08N39W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS
TO 06N49W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100NM
N AND 200 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTED A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND INTO THE NE GULF THIS MORNING. SINCE THAT
TIME...IT WAS NOTED THAT THE STATIONARY FRONT TRANSITIONED INTO
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AS OF 1500 UTC EXTENDED FROM NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI AT 29N89W TO A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE
LOW CENTER OF 1011 MB ABOUT 30 NM W OF SARASOTA...FL NEAR
27N83W...AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL FL TO THE W ATLC. DEEP MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD
TROUGH AND LOW CENTER SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 250 NM S AND W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. MAINLY E WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KT ARE N OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SW TO W WINDS ARE WITHIN
100 NM S AND W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM W
CUBA TO THE TX COAST IS PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. LASTLY...A CONVECTION FREE
DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM 22N94W TO
18N95W. THE LOW AND TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODELS ARE
FORECASTING AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SFC
TROUGH WHICH WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. OVERALL...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH MID WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

OTHER THAN THE TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION...DRY AIR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA SUPPORTING GALE
FORCE WINDS THIS MORNING OVER A PORTION OF THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WINDS DROPPING BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS S OF 17N BETWEEN 71W AND 79W. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT WINDS TO 25 KT
NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER JAMAICA BY MONDAY...AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING S HISPANIOLA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO NEAR 20 KT. THE WAVE WILL GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER S HAITI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WAVE WILL BE WEST OF THE ISLAND BY MONDAY WITH A
RETURN OF DRY AIR. THIS SHOULD INHIBIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC WAS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC THAT AS OF 1500 UTC HAS TRANSITIONED
INTO A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO CENTRAL FL
NEAR 29N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 275
NW SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA OF
DISCUSSION IS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 57W AND 75W. A
1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N34W SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE SUBTROPICAL N ATLC E OF 50W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES
ARE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE ALONG AND WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED NM S OF THE NEARLY
STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL FL AND OFFSHORE ATLC
WATERS INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS. CONVECTION
WILL ALSO CONTINUE N OF 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 75W NEAR A STATIONARY
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 261805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT WAS
SUPPORTING GALE-FORCE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS JUST BELOW
GALE-FORCE. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A RETURN OF GALE-FORCE WINDS FORECAST BY 0600Z
TUESDAY MORNING FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. SEA HEIGHTS
WILL RANGE FROM 11 FEET TO 16 FEET. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/ FZNT23 KNHC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 16N31W TO 08N31W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE LOW THAT WAS ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE HAS BEEN
LEFT BEHIND AND HAS WEAKENED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH.
MODERATE MOISTURE IS N OF 11N ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WITH SAHARAN
DUST EVIDENT N OF 14N...WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
06N TO 09N BETWEEN 29W AND 33W...WHICH MAY ALSO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 16N50W TO 06N51W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THIS WAVE APPEARS IN 700 MB MODEL ANALYSIS WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH BETWEEN 49W AND 53W. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE
EMBEDDED IN SAHARAN DUST N OF 9N...WHICH IS INHIBITING
CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N69W TO 11N70W...MOVING W TO WNW AT 20 TO 25 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE SSMI
TPW IMAGERY...ACCOMPANYING AN AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT.
VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRM A WELL DEFINED INVERTED
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 67W AND
73W...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
13N16W TO 09N27W TO 08N39W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS
TO 06N49W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100NM
N AND 200 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTED A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND INTO THE NE GULF THIS MORNING. SINCE THAT
TIME...IT WAS NOTED THAT THE STATIONARY FRONT TRANSITIONED INTO
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AS OF 1500 UTC EXTENDED FROM NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI AT 29N89W TO A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE
LOW CENTER OF 1011 MB ABOUT 30 NM W OF SARASOTA...FL NEAR
27N83W...AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL FL TO THE W ATLC. DEEP MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD
TROUGH AND LOW CENTER SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 250 NM S AND W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. MAINLY E WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KT ARE N OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SW TO W WINDS ARE WITHIN
100 NM S AND W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM W
CUBA TO THE TX COAST IS PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. LASTLY...A CONVECTION FREE
DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM 22N94W TO
18N95W. THE LOW AND TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODELS ARE
FORECASTING AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SFC
TROUGH WHICH WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. OVERALL...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH MID WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

OTHER THAN THE TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION...DRY AIR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA SUPPORTING GALE
FORCE WINDS THIS MORNING OVER A PORTION OF THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WINDS DROPPING BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS S OF 17N BETWEEN 71W AND 79W. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT WINDS TO 25 KT
NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER JAMAICA BY MONDAY...AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING S HISPANIOLA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO NEAR 20 KT. THE WAVE WILL GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER S HAITI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WAVE WILL BE WEST OF THE ISLAND BY MONDAY WITH A
RETURN OF DRY AIR. THIS SHOULD INHIBIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC WAS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC THAT AS OF 1500 UTC HAS TRANSITIONED
INTO A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO CENTRAL FL
NEAR 29N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 275
NW SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA OF
DISCUSSION IS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 57W AND 75W. A
1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N34W SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE SUBTROPICAL N ATLC E OF 50W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES
ARE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE ALONG AND WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED NM S OF THE NEARLY
STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL FL AND OFFSHORE ATLC
WATERS INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS. CONVECTION
WILL ALSO CONTINUE N OF 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 75W NEAR A STATIONARY
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 261805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT WAS
SUPPORTING GALE-FORCE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS JUST BELOW
GALE-FORCE. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A RETURN OF GALE-FORCE WINDS FORECAST BY 0600Z
TUESDAY MORNING FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. SEA HEIGHTS
WILL RANGE FROM 11 FEET TO 16 FEET. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/ FZNT23 KNHC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 16N31W TO 08N31W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE LOW THAT WAS ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE HAS BEEN
LEFT BEHIND AND HAS WEAKENED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH.
MODERATE MOISTURE IS N OF 11N ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WITH SAHARAN
DUST EVIDENT N OF 14N...WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
06N TO 09N BETWEEN 29W AND 33W...WHICH MAY ALSO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 16N50W TO 06N51W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THIS WAVE APPEARS IN 700 MB MODEL ANALYSIS WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH BETWEEN 49W AND 53W. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE
EMBEDDED IN SAHARAN DUST N OF 9N...WHICH IS INHIBITING
CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N69W TO 11N70W...MOVING W TO WNW AT 20 TO 25 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE SSMI
TPW IMAGERY...ACCOMPANYING AN AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT.
VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRM A WELL DEFINED INVERTED
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 67W AND
73W...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
13N16W TO 09N27W TO 08N39W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS
TO 06N49W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100NM
N AND 200 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTED A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND INTO THE NE GULF THIS MORNING. SINCE THAT
TIME...IT WAS NOTED THAT THE STATIONARY FRONT TRANSITIONED INTO
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AS OF 1500 UTC EXTENDED FROM NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI AT 29N89W TO A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE
LOW CENTER OF 1011 MB ABOUT 30 NM W OF SARASOTA...FL NEAR
27N83W...AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL FL TO THE W ATLC. DEEP MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD
TROUGH AND LOW CENTER SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 250 NM S AND W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. MAINLY E WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KT ARE N OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SW TO W WINDS ARE WITHIN
100 NM S AND W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM W
CUBA TO THE TX COAST IS PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. LASTLY...A CONVECTION FREE
DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM 22N94W TO
18N95W. THE LOW AND TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODELS ARE
FORECASTING AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SFC
TROUGH WHICH WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. OVERALL...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH MID WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

OTHER THAN THE TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION...DRY AIR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA SUPPORTING GALE
FORCE WINDS THIS MORNING OVER A PORTION OF THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WINDS DROPPING BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS S OF 17N BETWEEN 71W AND 79W. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT WINDS TO 25 KT
NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER JAMAICA BY MONDAY...AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING S HISPANIOLA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO NEAR 20 KT. THE WAVE WILL GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER S HAITI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WAVE WILL BE WEST OF THE ISLAND BY MONDAY WITH A
RETURN OF DRY AIR. THIS SHOULD INHIBIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC WAS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC THAT AS OF 1500 UTC HAS TRANSITIONED
INTO A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO CENTRAL FL
NEAR 29N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 275
NW SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA OF
DISCUSSION IS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 57W AND 75W. A
1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N34W SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE SUBTROPICAL N ATLC E OF 50W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES
ARE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE ALONG AND WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED NM S OF THE NEARLY
STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL FL AND OFFSHORE ATLC
WATERS INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS. CONVECTION
WILL ALSO CONTINUE N OF 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 75W NEAR A STATIONARY
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 261800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT WAS
SUPPORTING GALE-FORCE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS JUST BELOW
GALE-FORCE. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A RETURN OF GALE-FORCE WINDS FORECAST BY 0600Z
TUESDAY MORNING FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. SEA HEIGHTS
WILL RANGE FROM 11 FEET TO 16 FEET. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/ FZNT23 KNHC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 16N31W TO 08N31W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE LOW THAT WAS ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE HAS BEEN
LEFT BEHIND AND HAS WEAKENED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH.
MODERATE MOISTURE IS N OF 11N ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WITH SAHARAN
DUST EVIDENT N OF 14N...WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
06N TO 09N BETWEEN 29W AND 33W...WHICH MAY ALSO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 16N50W TO 06N51W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THIS WAVE APPEARS IN 700 MB MODEL ANALYSIS WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH BETWEEN 49W AND 53W. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE
EMBEDDED IN SAHARAN DUST N OF 9N...WHICH IS INHIBITING
CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N69W TO 11N70W...MOVING W TO WNW AT 20 TO 25 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE SSMI
TPW IMAGERY...ACCOMPANYING AN AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT.
VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRM A WELL DEFINED INVERTED
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 67W AND
73W...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
13N16W TO 09N27W TO 08N39W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS
TO 06N49W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100NM
N AND 200 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTED A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND INTO THE NE GULF THIS MORNING. SINCE THAT
TIME...IT WAS NOTED THAT THE STATIONARY FRONT TRANSITIONED INTO
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AS OF 1500 UTC EXTENDED FROM NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI AT 29N89W TO A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE
LOW CENTER OF 1011 MB ABOUT 30 NM W OF SARASOTA...FL NEAR
27N83W...AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL FL TO THE W ATLC. DEEP MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD
TROUGH AND LOW CENTER SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 250 NM S AND W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. MAINLY E WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KT ARE N OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SW TO W WINDS ARE WITHIN
100 NM S AND W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM W
CUBA TO THE TX COAST IS PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. LASTLY...A CONVECTION FREE
DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM 22N94W TO
18N95W. THE LOW AND TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODELS ARE
FORECASTING AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SFC
TROUGH WHICH WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. OVERALL...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH MID WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

OTHER THAN THE TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION...DRY AIR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA SUPPORTING GALE
FORCE WINDS THIS MORNING OVER A PORTION OF THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WINDS DROPPING BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS S OF 17N BETWEEN 71W AND 79W. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT WINDS TO 25 KT
NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER JAMAICA BY MONDAY...AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING S HISPANIOLA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO NEAR 20 KT. THE WAVE WILL GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER S HAITI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WAVE WILL BE WEST OF THE ISLAND BY MONDAY WITH A
RETURN OF DRY AIR. THIS SHOULD INHIBIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC WAS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC THAT AS OF 1500 UTC HAS TRANSITIONED
INTO A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO CENTRAL FL
NEAR 29N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 275
NW SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA OF
DISCUSSION IS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 57W AND 75W. A
1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N34W SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE SUBTROPICAL N ATLC E OF 50W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES
ARE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE ALONG AND WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED NM S OF THE NEARLY
STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL FL AND OFFSHORE ATLC
WATERS INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS. CONVECTION
WILL ALSO CONTINUE N OF 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 75W NEAR A STATIONARY
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 261800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT WAS
SUPPORTING GALE-FORCE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS JUST BELOW
GALE-FORCE. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A RETURN OF GALE-FORCE WINDS FORECAST BY 0600Z
TUESDAY MORNING FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. SEA HEIGHTS
WILL RANGE FROM 11 FEET TO 16 FEET. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/ FZNT23 KNHC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 16N31W TO 08N31W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE LOW THAT WAS ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE HAS BEEN
LEFT BEHIND AND HAS WEAKENED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH.
MODERATE MOISTURE IS N OF 11N ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WITH SAHARAN
DUST EVIDENT N OF 14N...WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
06N TO 09N BETWEEN 29W AND 33W...WHICH MAY ALSO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 16N50W TO 06N51W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THIS WAVE APPEARS IN 700 MB MODEL ANALYSIS WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH BETWEEN 49W AND 53W. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE
EMBEDDED IN SAHARAN DUST N OF 9N...WHICH IS INHIBITING
CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N69W TO 11N70W...MOVING W TO WNW AT 20 TO 25 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE SSMI
TPW IMAGERY...ACCOMPANYING AN AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT.
VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRM A WELL DEFINED INVERTED
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 67W AND
73W...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
13N16W TO 09N27W TO 08N39W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS
TO 06N49W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100NM
N AND 200 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTED A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND INTO THE NE GULF THIS MORNING. SINCE THAT
TIME...IT WAS NOTED THAT THE STATIONARY FRONT TRANSITIONED INTO
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AS OF 1500 UTC EXTENDED FROM NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI AT 29N89W TO A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE
LOW CENTER OF 1011 MB ABOUT 30 NM W OF SARASOTA...FL NEAR
27N83W...AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL FL TO THE W ATLC. DEEP MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD
TROUGH AND LOW CENTER SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 250 NM S AND W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. MAINLY E WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KT ARE N OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SW TO W WINDS ARE WITHIN
100 NM S AND W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM W
CUBA TO THE TX COAST IS PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. LASTLY...A CONVECTION FREE
DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM 22N94W TO
18N95W. THE LOW AND TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODELS ARE
FORECASTING AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SFC
TROUGH WHICH WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. OVERALL...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH MID WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

OTHER THAN THE TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION...DRY AIR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA SUPPORTING GALE
FORCE WINDS THIS MORNING OVER A PORTION OF THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WINDS DROPPING BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS S OF 17N BETWEEN 71W AND 79W. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT WINDS TO 25 KT
NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER JAMAICA BY MONDAY...AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING S HISPANIOLA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO NEAR 20 KT. THE WAVE WILL GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER S HAITI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WAVE WILL BE WEST OF THE ISLAND BY MONDAY WITH A
RETURN OF DRY AIR. THIS SHOULD INHIBIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC WAS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC THAT AS OF 1500 UTC HAS TRANSITIONED
INTO A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO CENTRAL FL
NEAR 29N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 275
NW SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA OF
DISCUSSION IS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 57W AND 75W. A
1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N34W SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE SUBTROPICAL N ATLC E OF 50W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES
ARE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE ALONG AND WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED NM S OF THE NEARLY
STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL FL AND OFFSHORE ATLC
WATERS INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS. CONVECTION
WILL ALSO CONTINUE N OF 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 75W NEAR A STATIONARY
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO



000
ACPN50 PHFO 261748
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SUN JUL 26 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$

BURKE







000
ACPN50 PHFO 261748
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SUN JUL 26 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$

BURKE






000
ACPN50 PHFO 261748
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SUN JUL 26 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$

BURKE






000
ACPN50 PHFO 261748
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SUN JUL 26 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$

BURKE






000
ACPN50 PHFO 261748
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SUN JUL 26 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$

BURKE






000
ACPN50 PHFO 261745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SUN JUL 26 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$

BURKE





000
ACPN50 PHFO 261745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SUN JUL 26 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$

BURKE





000
ACPN50 PHFO 261745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SUN JUL 26 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$

BURKE





000
ACPN50 PHFO 261745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SUN JUL 26 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$

BURKE





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261728
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A small low pressure system centered about 1000 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a
an area of showers and thunderstorms near the well-defined center
of the disturbance.  Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
Wednesday while the low moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Another area of low pressure could form early next week well to
the south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.  Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for
slow development of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261728
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A small low pressure system centered about 1000 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a
an area of showers and thunderstorms near the well-defined center
of the disturbance.  Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
Wednesday while the low moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Another area of low pressure could form early next week well to
the south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.  Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for
slow development of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261728
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A small low pressure system centered about 1000 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a
an area of showers and thunderstorms near the well-defined center
of the disturbance.  Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
Wednesday while the low moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Another area of low pressure could form early next week well to
the south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.  Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for
slow development of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABNT20 KNHC 261723
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 261723
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261603
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUL 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS...WITH VERY WEAK SIGNATURE AT THE
SURFACE... IS ANALYZED ALONG 96W FROM 08N-15N...MOVING W 10-15
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS JUST S OF THE WAVE AS
DESCRIBED BELOW UNDER ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 106W/107W FROM 08N-15N
...MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 104W-111W. LOW PRES
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THIS WAVE POSSIBLY JUST BEYOND 48
HOURS AS IT CONTINUES IN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 125W FROM 08N-16N
16N...MOVING W NEAR 16 KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF
THE AXIS WITHIN 30 NM OF 12N123W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 08N-10N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N83W TO 06N97W TO
08N110W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 11N119W 1007 MB TO
07N130W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 104W-108W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 93W-99W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
121W-128W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1034 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH RESIDES OVER THE NE CENTRAL PACIFIC
NEAR 44N160W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N131W TO
22N115W. THE REMNANT LOW OF FELICIA IS ANALYZED AS A 1014 MB LOW
SW OF THE RIDGE NEAR 25N124W. THE ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION IS
OBSERVED IN FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NE WINDS OF 20-25
KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NW
SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW IN THE N SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BECOMING A TROUGH ALONG 127W
BY EARLY MON WITH WINDS 15-20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL W
OF THE TROUGH.

AS THE REMNANT LOW WEAKENS...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NE
WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AT THE SAME
TIME...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A
MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ARE FORCING MORE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS
INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE. MODERATE TO
FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT THROUGH
MON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITHIN 30 NM OF
27N111W.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOW PRES OF
THE TROPICAL REGION AS INDUCED  MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO
THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF 11N THE ITCZ W OF 125W. THIS AREA OF
TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHRINK S...BUT EXPAND EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS WERE 7-9 FT IN NE WIND WAVES AND MIXED SE
AND SW SWELL THERE FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 130W. THESE MARINE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

A 1006 MB LOW WITH AN ELONGATED N TO S STRUCTURE IS ANALYZED
NEAR 11N119W MOVING NW ABOUT 10 KT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW WILL CONSOLIDATE DURING THE NEXT 24-348
HOURS WITH THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE N INCREASING. 20-25 KT WINDS AROUND THE LOW ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KT PRIMARILY IN THE NE QUADRANT DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FT MON.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SOUTHERLY DISPLACED RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N
ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN IT AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.
AS A RESULT...NE 20-25 KT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF AND TO
THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR 88W FROM 10N-12N WITH SEAS TO 9 FT.
THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE BACK AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MON AND DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE
WINDS WILL AGAIN PULSE TO 20-25 KT LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE
WITH SEAS 8-9 FT.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261603
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUL 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS...WITH VERY WEAK SIGNATURE AT THE
SURFACE... IS ANALYZED ALONG 96W FROM 08N-15N...MOVING W 10-15
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS JUST S OF THE WAVE AS
DESCRIBED BELOW UNDER ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 106W/107W FROM 08N-15N
...MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 104W-111W. LOW PRES
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THIS WAVE POSSIBLY JUST BEYOND 48
HOURS AS IT CONTINUES IN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 125W FROM 08N-16N
16N...MOVING W NEAR 16 KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF
THE AXIS WITHIN 30 NM OF 12N123W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 08N-10N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N83W TO 06N97W TO
08N110W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 11N119W 1007 MB TO
07N130W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 104W-108W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 93W-99W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
121W-128W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1034 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH RESIDES OVER THE NE CENTRAL PACIFIC
NEAR 44N160W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N131W TO
22N115W. THE REMNANT LOW OF FELICIA IS ANALYZED AS A 1014 MB LOW
SW OF THE RIDGE NEAR 25N124W. THE ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION IS
OBSERVED IN FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NE WINDS OF 20-25
KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NW
SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW IN THE N SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BECOMING A TROUGH ALONG 127W
BY EARLY MON WITH WINDS 15-20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL W
OF THE TROUGH.

AS THE REMNANT LOW WEAKENS...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NE
WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AT THE SAME
TIME...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A
MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ARE FORCING MORE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS
INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE. MODERATE TO
FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT THROUGH
MON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITHIN 30 NM OF
27N111W.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOW PRES OF
THE TROPICAL REGION AS INDUCED  MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO
THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF 11N THE ITCZ W OF 125W. THIS AREA OF
TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHRINK S...BUT EXPAND EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS WERE 7-9 FT IN NE WIND WAVES AND MIXED SE
AND SW SWELL THERE FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 130W. THESE MARINE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

A 1006 MB LOW WITH AN ELONGATED N TO S STRUCTURE IS ANALYZED
NEAR 11N119W MOVING NW ABOUT 10 KT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW WILL CONSOLIDATE DURING THE NEXT 24-348
HOURS WITH THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE N INCREASING. 20-25 KT WINDS AROUND THE LOW ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KT PRIMARILY IN THE NE QUADRANT DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FT MON.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SOUTHERLY DISPLACED RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N
ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN IT AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.
AS A RESULT...NE 20-25 KT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF AND TO
THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR 88W FROM 10N-12N WITH SEAS TO 9 FT.
THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE BACK AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MON AND DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE
WINDS WILL AGAIN PULSE TO 20-25 KT LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE
WITH SEAS 8-9 FT.

$$
AGUIRRE


000
ACPN50 PHFO 261151
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SUN JUL 26 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 1450 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.


$$

GIBBS





000
ACPN50 PHFO 261151
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SUN JUL 26 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 1450 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.


$$

GIBBS






000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261146
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure centered about 1050 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a
large area of cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next few days while the low moves west-northwestward
at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Another area of low pressure could form early next week well to
the south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.  Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for
slow development of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261146
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure centered about 1050 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a
large area of cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next few days while the low moves west-northwestward
at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Another area of low pressure could form early next week well to
the south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.  Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for
slow development of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261146
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure centered about 1050 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a
large area of cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next few days while the low moves west-northwestward
at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Another area of low pressure could form early next week well to
the south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.  Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for
slow development of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261146
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure centered about 1050 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a
large area of cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next few days while the low moves west-northwestward
at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Another area of low pressure could form early next week well to
the south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.  Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for
slow development of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261146
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure centered about 1050 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a
large area of cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next few days while the low moves west-northwestward
at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Another area of low pressure could form early next week well to
the south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.  Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for
slow development of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261146
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUL 26 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure centered about 1050 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a
large area of cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next few days while the low moves west-northwestward
at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Another area of low pressure could form early next week well to
the south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.  Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for
slow development of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 261127
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT DOMINGO 26 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 261127
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT DOMINGO 26 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 261127
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT DOMINGO 26 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS 5
DIAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART


000
ABNT20 KNHC 261119
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
AXNT20 KNHC 261100
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO START DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...
FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE
FROM 11 FEET TO 14 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/
FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A 1015 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N
TO 10N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 03N TO
10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W FROM THE MONA PASSAGE
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 04N TO
07N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 15N17W TO 13N20W TO 13N25W TO THE 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE 28W TROPICAL WAVE...TO 18N39W AND
06N42W. NO ITCZ IS PRESENT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 18W AND 23W. ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 06N TO 07N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS
FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 28N79W...OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA. THE CYCLONIC CENTER IS
IN A TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N76W TO 28N79W...TO 26N79W IN
THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N64W TO 28N70W TO 26N74W AND 23N80W
AT THE COAST OF CUBA. A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...PASSING THROUGH 32N74W...TO CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO A 1010
MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N84W. THE STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM THE 1010 MB LOW CENTER TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 50 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS OF LOUISIANA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO
THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 2.77 IN BERMUDA.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
MEXICO...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 94W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO
NEAR 27N107W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 94W EASTWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
24N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THROUGH A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 1016 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N89W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 22N80W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS FLORIDA...TO A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 1016 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER...AND TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 21N78W AT THE COAST OF CUBA...TO 15N83W AT THE
EASTERN PART OF HONDURAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N82W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER IS ELONGATED FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER. UPPER LEVEL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE 19N82W CENTER...FROM
HAITI WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE 19N82W CYCLONIC CENTER.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE EARLIER SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG...AS LATE AS 26/0745 UTC...HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED...
AND IT HAS MOVED INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE EARLIER SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG...AS LATE AS 26/0745 UTC...HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED...
AND IT HAS MOVED INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL COVER
THE AREA...WITH ABUNDANT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL
COVER THE AREA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A SERIES OF INVERTED TROUGHS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N52W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 47W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION THAT HAS
WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED...COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 52W AND 65W. OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CURLING
AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 53W
AND 76W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 35N34W TO 29N42W...TO 26N57W...THROUGH 23N68W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO CUBA NEAR 22N80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 261100
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO START DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...
FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE
FROM 11 FEET TO 14 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/
FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A 1015 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N
TO 10N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 03N TO
10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W FROM THE MONA PASSAGE
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 04N TO
07N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 15N17W TO 13N20W TO 13N25W TO THE 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE 28W TROPICAL WAVE...TO 18N39W AND
06N42W. NO ITCZ IS PRESENT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 18W AND 23W. ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 06N TO 07N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS
FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 28N79W...OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA. THE CYCLONIC CENTER IS
IN A TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N76W TO 28N79W...TO 26N79W IN
THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N64W TO 28N70W TO 26N74W AND 23N80W
AT THE COAST OF CUBA. A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...PASSING THROUGH 32N74W...TO CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO A 1010
MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N84W. THE STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM THE 1010 MB LOW CENTER TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 50 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS OF LOUISIANA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO
THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 2.77 IN BERMUDA.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
MEXICO...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 94W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO
NEAR 27N107W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 94W EASTWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
24N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THROUGH A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 1016 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N89W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 22N80W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS FLORIDA...TO A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 1016 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER...AND TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 21N78W AT THE COAST OF CUBA...TO 15N83W AT THE
EASTERN PART OF HONDURAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N82W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER IS ELONGATED FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER. UPPER LEVEL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE 19N82W CENTER...FROM
HAITI WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE 19N82W CYCLONIC CENTER.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE EARLIER SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG...AS LATE AS 26/0745 UTC...HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED...
AND IT HAS MOVED INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE EARLIER SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG...AS LATE AS 26/0745 UTC...HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED...
AND IT HAS MOVED INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL COVER
THE AREA...WITH ABUNDANT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL
COVER THE AREA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A SERIES OF INVERTED TROUGHS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N52W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 47W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION THAT HAS
WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED...COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 52W AND 65W. OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CURLING
AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 53W
AND 76W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 35N34W TO 29N42W...TO 26N57W...THROUGH 23N68W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO CUBA NEAR 22N80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 261100
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO START DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...
FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE
FROM 11 FEET TO 14 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/
FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A 1015 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N
TO 10N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 03N TO
10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W FROM THE MONA PASSAGE
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 04N TO
07N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 15N17W TO 13N20W TO 13N25W TO THE 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE 28W TROPICAL WAVE...TO 18N39W AND
06N42W. NO ITCZ IS PRESENT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 18W AND 23W. ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 06N TO 07N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS
FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 28N79W...OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA. THE CYCLONIC CENTER IS
IN A TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N76W TO 28N79W...TO 26N79W IN
THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N64W TO 28N70W TO 26N74W AND 23N80W
AT THE COAST OF CUBA. A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...PASSING THROUGH 32N74W...TO CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO A 1010
MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N84W. THE STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM THE 1010 MB LOW CENTER TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 50 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS OF LOUISIANA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO
THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 2.77 IN BERMUDA.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
MEXICO...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 94W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO
NEAR 27N107W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 94W EASTWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
24N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THROUGH A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 1016 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N89W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 22N80W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS FLORIDA...TO A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 1016 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER...AND TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 21N78W AT THE COAST OF CUBA...TO 15N83W AT THE
EASTERN PART OF HONDURAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N82W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER IS ELONGATED FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER. UPPER LEVEL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE 19N82W CENTER...FROM
HAITI WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE 19N82W CYCLONIC CENTER.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE EARLIER SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG...AS LATE AS 26/0745 UTC...HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED...
AND IT HAS MOVED INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE EARLIER SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG...AS LATE AS 26/0745 UTC...HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED...
AND IT HAS MOVED INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL COVER
THE AREA...WITH ABUNDANT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL
COVER THE AREA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A SERIES OF INVERTED TROUGHS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N52W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 47W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION THAT HAS
WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED...COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 52W AND 65W. OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CURLING
AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 53W
AND 76W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 35N34W TO 29N42W...TO 26N57W...THROUGH 23N68W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO CUBA NEAR 22N80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260949
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUL 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ILL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE WAS INVOF 92W/93W N OF 06N...
MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS INVOF 06N102W TO 15N105W...MOVING W AROUND
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM
10N TO 14N WITHIN 270 NM EITHER SIDE OF WAVE. SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM
02N TO 07N BETWEEN 99W AND 105W.

A COMPLEX TROPICAL WAVE WAS BETWEEN 114W AND 123W. SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM
06N TO 15N BETWEEN 113W AND 123W. THIS WAVE IS BEST IDENTIFIED
BY A DEVELOPING ELONGATED NE TO SW LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION...WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS E AND SE
PORTIONS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO WELL DEFINED MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT...
ALTHOUGH VERY WEAK TROUGHING IS NOTED ACROSS E AND W PORTIONS OF
THE TROPICS. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N93W TO 05.5N102W TO
12.5N116W...WHERE IT BECOMES ILL DEFINED. NO SIGNIFICANT
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1034 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH RESIDES OVER THE NE CENTRAL PACIFIC
NEAR 44N160W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N131W TO
22N115W. THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA WERE ANALYZED AS A 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SW OF THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 24.5N124W. A WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL EVIDENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WITH STRATOFORM PRECIP CONTINUING TO OCCUR WITHIN 180
NM ACROSS THE NE SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN
UP...BECOMING A TROUGH ALONG 125W LATE TONIGHT. WINDS TO 20 KT
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT NEAR
THE SYSTEM UNDER PRIMARILY SW SWELL.

AS THE REMNANT LOW WEAKENS...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NE
WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AT THE SAME
TIME...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A
MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ARE FORCING MORE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE.
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT
THROUGH MON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS NW MEXICO WAS PRODUCING
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA FROM 24N TO 28N AND EXTENDED INLAND ACROSS MAINLAND
MEXICO.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
ELONGATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE FROM 06N-12N W OF 116W HAS BROUGHT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF 11N THE
ITCZ W OF 125W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHRINK S BUT
EXPAND E OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS WERE 7-9 FT IN NE WIND
WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL THERE FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 130W.
THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.

A COMPLEX LOW TO MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN 114W AND 123W. AN NE TO SW ELONGATED
CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE...WITH SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 06N TO 15N BETWEEN 113W AND
123W...MAINLY ACROSS E AND SE PORTIONS OF THE WAVE. GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS ELONGATED SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE CONSOLIDATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND A CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY MON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE BETWEEN THE
DEVELOPING LOW AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N...WITH E-SE
WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE N OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 10 FT BY MON EVENING.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SOUTHERLY DISPLACED RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N
ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN IT AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.
OFFSHORE NELY WINDS ARE BRIEFLY PULSING TO 20-25 KT WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THIS MORNING...WITH SEAS
TO 9 FT. WINDS THERE WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE PULSING AGAIN TO A LESSER EXTENT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260949
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUL 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ILL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE WAS INVOF 92W/93W N OF 06N...
MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS INVOF 06N102W TO 15N105W...MOVING W AROUND
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM
10N TO 14N WITHIN 270 NM EITHER SIDE OF WAVE. SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM
02N TO 07N BETWEEN 99W AND 105W.

A COMPLEX TROPICAL WAVE WAS BETWEEN 114W AND 123W. SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM
06N TO 15N BETWEEN 113W AND 123W. THIS WAVE IS BEST IDENTIFIED
BY A DEVELOPING ELONGATED NE TO SW LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION...WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS E AND SE
PORTIONS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO WELL DEFINED MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT...
ALTHOUGH VERY WEAK TROUGHING IS NOTED ACROSS E AND W PORTIONS OF
THE TROPICS. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N93W TO 05.5N102W TO
12.5N116W...WHERE IT BECOMES ILL DEFINED. NO SIGNIFICANT
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1034 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH RESIDES OVER THE NE CENTRAL PACIFIC
NEAR 44N160W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N131W TO
22N115W. THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA WERE ANALYZED AS A 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SW OF THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 24.5N124W. A WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL EVIDENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WITH STRATOFORM PRECIP CONTINUING TO OCCUR WITHIN 180
NM ACROSS THE NE SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN
UP...BECOMING A TROUGH ALONG 125W LATE TONIGHT. WINDS TO 20 KT
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT NEAR
THE SYSTEM UNDER PRIMARILY SW SWELL.

AS THE REMNANT LOW WEAKENS...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NE
WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AT THE SAME
TIME...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A
MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ARE FORCING MORE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE.
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT
THROUGH MON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS NW MEXICO WAS PRODUCING
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA FROM 24N TO 28N AND EXTENDED INLAND ACROSS MAINLAND
MEXICO.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
ELONGATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE FROM 06N-12N W OF 116W HAS BROUGHT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF 11N THE
ITCZ W OF 125W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHRINK S BUT
EXPAND E OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS WERE 7-9 FT IN NE WIND
WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL THERE FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 130W.
THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.

A COMPLEX LOW TO MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN 114W AND 123W. AN NE TO SW ELONGATED
CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE...WITH SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 06N TO 15N BETWEEN 113W AND
123W...MAINLY ACROSS E AND SE PORTIONS OF THE WAVE. GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS ELONGATED SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE CONSOLIDATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND A CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY MON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE BETWEEN THE
DEVELOPING LOW AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N...WITH E-SE
WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE N OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 10 FT BY MON EVENING.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SOUTHERLY DISPLACED RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N
ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN IT AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.
OFFSHORE NELY WINDS ARE BRIEFLY PULSING TO 20-25 KT WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THIS MORNING...WITH SEAS
TO 9 FT. WINDS THERE WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE PULSING AGAIN TO A LESSER EXTENT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXNT20 KNHC 260604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO START DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...
FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE
FROM 11 FEET TO 14 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/
FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A 1015 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N
TO 10N BETWEEN 22W AND 30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 04N TO
10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W FROM PUERTO RICO
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 64W AND 67W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 13N17W TO THE 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE
27W TROPICAL WAVE...TO 08N35W AND 09N37W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 09N37W TO 08N40W...04N47W...INTO FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 04N54W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 09N
TO 13N BETWEEN 17W AND 21W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 07N
BETWEEN 29W AND 34W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 05N TO 08N
BETWEEN 50W AND 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS
FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 28N79W...OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA. THE CYCLONIC CENTER IS
IN A TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N77W TO 28N79W...TO 26N79W IN
THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N64W TO 28N70W TO 26N74W AND 23N80W
AT THE COAST OF CUBA. A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...PASSING THROUGH 32N75W...TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N80W. THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
THE 1011 MB LOW CENTER TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND
NORTHWESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N94W TO 21N90W ALONG THE COAST OF
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 2.77 IN
BERMUDA.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
MEXICO...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 94W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO
NEAR 27N106W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 94W EASTWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
24N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THROUGH A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 1016 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N89W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 23N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND TO THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 21N78W AT THE COAST OF CUBA...TO 15N83W AT THE
EASTERN PART OF HONDURAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N82W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER IS ELONGATED FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER. UPPER LEVEL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE 19N82W CENTER...FROM
HAITI WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE 19N82W CYCLONIC CENTER.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS
WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 19.5N73.5W BETWEEN HAITI AND
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS
WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 19.5N73.5W BETWEEN HAITI AND
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL COVER
THE AREA...WITH ABUNDANT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL
COVER THE AREA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A SERIES OF INVERTED TROUGHS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N52W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 43W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
56W AND 64W. OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CURLING AROUND THE
CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N34W TO 28N46W...TO 24N59W...THROUGH 23N72W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO FLORIDA AND BEYOND...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO...AND TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 260604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO START DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...
FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE
FROM 11 FEET TO 14 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/
FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A 1015 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N
TO 10N BETWEEN 22W AND 30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 04N TO
10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W FROM PUERTO RICO
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 64W AND 67W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 13N17W TO THE 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE
27W TROPICAL WAVE...TO 08N35W AND 09N37W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 09N37W TO 08N40W...04N47W...INTO FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 04N54W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 09N
TO 13N BETWEEN 17W AND 21W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 07N
BETWEEN 29W AND 34W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 05N TO 08N
BETWEEN 50W AND 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS
FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 28N79W...OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA. THE CYCLONIC CENTER IS
IN A TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N77W TO 28N79W...TO 26N79W IN
THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N64W TO 28N70W TO 26N74W AND 23N80W
AT THE COAST OF CUBA. A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...PASSING THROUGH 32N75W...TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N80W. THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
THE 1011 MB LOW CENTER TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND
NORTHWESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N94W TO 21N90W ALONG THE COAST OF
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 2.77 IN
BERMUDA.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
MEXICO...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 94W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO
NEAR 27N106W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 94W EASTWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
24N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THROUGH A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 1016 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N89W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 23N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND TO THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 21N78W AT THE COAST OF CUBA...TO 15N83W AT THE
EASTERN PART OF HONDURAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N82W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER IS ELONGATED FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER. UPPER LEVEL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE 19N82W CENTER...FROM
HAITI WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE 19N82W CYCLONIC CENTER.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS
WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 19.5N73.5W BETWEEN HAITI AND
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS
WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 19.5N73.5W BETWEEN HAITI AND
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL COVER
THE AREA...WITH ABUNDANT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL
COVER THE AREA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A SERIES OF INVERTED TROUGHS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N52W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 43W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
56W AND 64W. OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CURLING AROUND THE
CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N34W TO 28N46W...TO 24N59W...THROUGH 23N72W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO FLORIDA AND BEYOND...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO...AND TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 260604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO START DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...
FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE
FROM 11 FEET TO 14 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/
FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A 1015 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N
TO 10N BETWEEN 22W AND 30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 04N TO
10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W FROM PUERTO RICO
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 64W AND 67W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 13N17W TO THE 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE
27W TROPICAL WAVE...TO 08N35W AND 09N37W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 09N37W TO 08N40W...04N47W...INTO FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 04N54W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 09N
TO 13N BETWEEN 17W AND 21W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 07N
BETWEEN 29W AND 34W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 05N TO 08N
BETWEEN 50W AND 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS
FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 28N79W...OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA. THE CYCLONIC CENTER IS
IN A TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N77W TO 28N79W...TO 26N79W IN
THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N64W TO 28N70W TO 26N74W AND 23N80W
AT THE COAST OF CUBA. A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...PASSING THROUGH 32N75W...TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N80W. THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
THE 1011 MB LOW CENTER TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND
NORTHWESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N94W TO 21N90W ALONG THE COAST OF
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 2.77 IN
BERMUDA.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
MEXICO...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 94W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO
NEAR 27N106W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 94W EASTWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
24N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THROUGH A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 1016 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N89W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 23N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND TO THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 21N78W AT THE COAST OF CUBA...TO 15N83W AT THE
EASTERN PART OF HONDURAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N82W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER IS ELONGATED FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER. UPPER LEVEL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE 19N82W CENTER...FROM
HAITI WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE 19N82W CYCLONIC CENTER.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS
WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 19.5N73.5W BETWEEN HAITI AND
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS
WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 19.5N73.5W BETWEEN HAITI AND
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL COVER
THE AREA...WITH ABUNDANT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL
COVER THE AREA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A SERIES OF INVERTED TROUGHS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N52W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 43W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
56W AND 64W. OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CURLING AROUND THE
CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N34W TO 28N46W...TO 24N59W...THROUGH 23N72W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO FLORIDA AND BEYOND...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO...AND TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 260604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO START DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...
FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE
FROM 11 FEET TO 14 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/
FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A 1015 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N
TO 10N BETWEEN 22W AND 30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 04N TO
10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W FROM PUERTO RICO
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 64W AND 67W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 13N17W TO THE 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE
27W TROPICAL WAVE...TO 08N35W AND 09N37W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 09N37W TO 08N40W...04N47W...INTO FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 04N54W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 09N
TO 13N BETWEEN 17W AND 21W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 07N
BETWEEN 29W AND 34W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 05N TO 08N
BETWEEN 50W AND 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS
FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 28N79W...OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA. THE CYCLONIC CENTER IS
IN A TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N77W TO 28N79W...TO 26N79W IN
THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N64W TO 28N70W TO 26N74W AND 23N80W
AT THE COAST OF CUBA. A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...PASSING THROUGH 32N75W...TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N80W. THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
THE 1011 MB LOW CENTER TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND
NORTHWESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N94W TO 21N90W ALONG THE COAST OF
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 2.77 IN
BERMUDA.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
MEXICO...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 94W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO
NEAR 27N106W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 94W EASTWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
24N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THROUGH A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 1016 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N89W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 23N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND TO THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 21N78W AT THE COAST OF CUBA...TO 15N83W AT THE
EASTERN PART OF HONDURAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N82W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER IS ELONGATED FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER. UPPER LEVEL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE 19N82W CENTER...FROM
HAITI WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE 19N82W CYCLONIC CENTER.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS
WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 19.5N73.5W BETWEEN HAITI AND
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS
WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 19.5N73.5W BETWEEN HAITI AND
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL COVER
THE AREA...WITH ABUNDANT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL
COVER THE AREA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A SERIES OF INVERTED TROUGHS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N52W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 43W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
56W AND 64W. OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CURLING AROUND THE
CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N34W TO 28N46W...TO 24N59W...THROUGH 23N72W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO FLORIDA AND BEYOND...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO...AND TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 260604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO START DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...
FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE
FROM 11 FEET TO 14 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/
FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A 1015 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N
TO 10N BETWEEN 22W AND 30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 04N TO
10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W FROM PUERTO RICO
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 64W AND 67W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 13N17W TO THE 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE
27W TROPICAL WAVE...TO 08N35W AND 09N37W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 09N37W TO 08N40W...04N47W...INTO FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 04N54W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 09N
TO 13N BETWEEN 17W AND 21W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 07N
BETWEEN 29W AND 34W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 05N TO 08N
BETWEEN 50W AND 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS
FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 28N79W...OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA. THE CYCLONIC CENTER IS
IN A TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N77W TO 28N79W...TO 26N79W IN
THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N64W TO 28N70W TO 26N74W AND 23N80W
AT THE COAST OF CUBA. A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...PASSING THROUGH 32N75W...TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N80W. THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
THE 1011 MB LOW CENTER TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND
NORTHWESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N94W TO 21N90W ALONG THE COAST OF
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 2.77 IN
BERMUDA.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
MEXICO...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 94W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO
NEAR 27N106W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 94W EASTWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
24N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THROUGH A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 1016 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N89W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 23N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND TO THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 21N78W AT THE COAST OF CUBA...TO 15N83W AT THE
EASTERN PART OF HONDURAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N82W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER IS ELONGATED FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER. UPPER LEVEL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE 19N82W CENTER...FROM
HAITI WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE 19N82W CYCLONIC CENTER.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS
WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 19.5N73.5W BETWEEN HAITI AND
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS
WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 19.5N73.5W BETWEEN HAITI AND
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL COVER
THE AREA...WITH ABUNDANT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL
COVER THE AREA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A SERIES OF INVERTED TROUGHS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N52W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 43W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
56W AND 64W. OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CURLING AROUND THE
CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N34W TO 28N46W...TO 24N59W...THROUGH 23N72W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO FLORIDA AND BEYOND...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO...AND TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 260604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO START DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...
FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE
FROM 11 FEET TO 14 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/
FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A 1015 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N
TO 10N BETWEEN 22W AND 30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 04N TO
10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W FROM PUERTO RICO
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 64W AND 67W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 13N17W TO THE 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE
27W TROPICAL WAVE...TO 08N35W AND 09N37W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 09N37W TO 08N40W...04N47W...INTO FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 04N54W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 09N
TO 13N BETWEEN 17W AND 21W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 07N
BETWEEN 29W AND 34W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 05N TO 08N
BETWEEN 50W AND 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS
FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 28N79W...OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA. THE CYCLONIC CENTER IS
IN A TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N77W TO 28N79W...TO 26N79W IN
THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N64W TO 28N70W TO 26N74W AND 23N80W
AT THE COAST OF CUBA. A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...PASSING THROUGH 32N75W...TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N80W. THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
THE 1011 MB LOW CENTER TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND
NORTHWESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N94W TO 21N90W ALONG THE COAST OF
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 2.77 IN
BERMUDA.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
MEXICO...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 94W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO
NEAR 27N106W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 94W EASTWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
24N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THROUGH A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 1016 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N89W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 23N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND TO THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 21N78W AT THE COAST OF CUBA...TO 15N83W AT THE
EASTERN PART OF HONDURAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N82W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER IS ELONGATED FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER. UPPER LEVEL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE 19N82W CENTER...FROM
HAITI WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE 19N82W CYCLONIC CENTER.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS
WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 19.5N73.5W BETWEEN HAITI AND
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS
WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 19.5N73.5W BETWEEN HAITI AND
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL COVER
THE AREA...WITH ABUNDANT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL
COVER THE AREA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A SERIES OF INVERTED TROUGHS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N52W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 43W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
56W AND 64W. OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CURLING AROUND THE
CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N34W TO 28N46W...TO 24N59W...THROUGH 23N72W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO FLORIDA AND BEYOND...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO...AND TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
ACPN50 PHFO 260532
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SAT JUL 25 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 1450 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

$$

GIBBS





000
ACPN50 PHFO 260532
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SAT JUL 25 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 1450 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

$$

GIBBS






000
ABNT20 KNHC 260501
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABNT20 KNHC 260501
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABNT20 KNHC 260501
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
ABNT20 KNHC 260501
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 260500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms centered
about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula is associated with an area of low pressure
along a tropical wave.  Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle of next week while the low moves west-northwestward at around
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Another area of low pressure could form early next week well to the
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.  Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for slow
development of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 260500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms centered
about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula is associated with an area of low pressure
along a tropical wave.  Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle of next week while the low moves west-northwestward at around
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Another area of low pressure could form early next week well to the
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.  Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for slow
development of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 260500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms centered
about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula is associated with an area of low pressure
along a tropical wave.  Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle of next week while the low moves west-northwestward at around
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Another area of low pressure could form early next week well to the
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.  Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for slow
development of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 260500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms centered
about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula is associated with an area of low pressure
along a tropical wave.  Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle of next week while the low moves west-northwestward at around
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Another area of low pressure could form early next week well to the
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.  Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for slow
development of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 260500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms centered
about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula is associated with an area of low pressure
along a tropical wave.  Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle of next week while the low moves west-northwestward at around
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Another area of low pressure could form early next week well to the
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.  Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for slow
development of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 260500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms centered
about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula is associated with an area of low pressure
along a tropical wave.  Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle of next week while the low moves west-northwestward at around
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Another area of low pressure could form early next week well to the
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.  Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for slow
development of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 260500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms centered
about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula is associated with an area of low pressure
along a tropical wave.  Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle of next week while the low moves west-northwestward at around
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Another area of low pressure could form early next week well to the
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.  Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for slow
development of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 260500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms centered
about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula is associated with an area of low pressure
along a tropical wave.  Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle of next week while the low moves west-northwestward at around
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Another area of low pressure could form early next week well to the
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.  Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for slow
development of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 260500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms centered
about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula is associated with an area of low pressure
along a tropical wave.  Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle of next week while the low moves west-northwestward at around
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Another area of low pressure could form early next week well to the
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.  Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for slow
development of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 260500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms centered
about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula is associated with an area of low pressure
along a tropical wave.  Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle of next week while the low moves west-northwestward at around
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Another area of low pressure could form early next week well to the
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.  Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for slow
development of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260252
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUL 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 92W FROM 07N TO 15N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WAS FROM 07N-09N BETWEEN 89W-94W.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 102W FROM 07N-15N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 99W-103W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 09N-11N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 16N120W TO 08N123W. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 08N-15N...EXCEPT WITHIN 390 NM
FROM 10N-13N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE ITCZ AXIS
AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N97W TO 10N110W TO 08N121W TO 10N130W
TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WAS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W-111W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 111W-119W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 75
NM AND 300 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1035 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NW OF THE AREA NEAR
44N160W AND EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N125W TO 18N110W.
THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA WERE ANALYZED AS A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SW OF THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 24N123W. THE ASCAT PASS AT
1730 UTC SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS STILL LIE WITHIN 120 NM N
SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP...BECOMING A TROUGH
BY MON. WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO MON NEAR THE SYSTEM UNDER PRIMARILY SW SWELL.

AS THE REMNANT LOW WEAKENS...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NE
WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AT THE SAME
TIME...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A
MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ARE FORCING MORE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE.
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT
THROUGH MON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF THE
ITCZ W OF 125W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHRINK S BUT
EXPAND E OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS WERE 7-9 FT IN NE WIND
WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF
130W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS.

A COMPLEX MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
ANALYZED FROM 16N120W TO 08N123W AND A NEWLY ANALYZED SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 113W FROM 09N-16N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 390 NM W OF THE TROUGH FROM 09N-16N. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
TWO SYSTEMS TO MERGE INTO A CLOSED CIRCULATION ON MON. THE
REMAINING TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS A RESULT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BUILD BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N...WITH E-SE WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE PRIMARILY BEHIND THE WAVE
MON AND SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT BY MON EVENING.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SOUTHERLY DISPLACED RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N
ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN IT AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
OFFSHORE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITH
THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT...AND PULSE AGAIN TO A
LESSER EXTENT OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT.

$$
SCHAUER


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260252
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUL 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 92W FROM 07N TO 15N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WAS FROM 07N-09N BETWEEN 89W-94W.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 102W FROM 07N-15N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 99W-103W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 09N-11N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 16N120W TO 08N123W. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 08N-15N...EXCEPT WITHIN 390 NM
FROM 10N-13N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE ITCZ AXIS
AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N97W TO 10N110W TO 08N121W TO 10N130W
TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WAS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W-111W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 111W-119W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 75
NM AND 300 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1035 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NW OF THE AREA NEAR
44N160W AND EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N125W TO 18N110W.
THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA WERE ANALYZED AS A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SW OF THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 24N123W. THE ASCAT PASS AT
1730 UTC SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS STILL LIE WITHIN 120 NM N
SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP...BECOMING A TROUGH
BY MON. WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO MON NEAR THE SYSTEM UNDER PRIMARILY SW SWELL.

AS THE REMNANT LOW WEAKENS...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NE
WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AT THE SAME
TIME...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A
MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ARE FORCING MORE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE.
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT
THROUGH MON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF THE
ITCZ W OF 125W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHRINK S BUT
EXPAND E OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS WERE 7-9 FT IN NE WIND
WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF
130W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS.

A COMPLEX MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
ANALYZED FROM 16N120W TO 08N123W AND A NEWLY ANALYZED SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 113W FROM 09N-16N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 390 NM W OF THE TROUGH FROM 09N-16N. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
TWO SYSTEMS TO MERGE INTO A CLOSED CIRCULATION ON MON. THE
REMAINING TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS A RESULT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BUILD BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N...WITH E-SE WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE PRIMARILY BEHIND THE WAVE
MON AND SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT BY MON EVENING.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SOUTHERLY DISPLACED RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N
ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN IT AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
OFFSHORE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITH
THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT...AND PULSE AGAIN TO A
LESSER EXTENT OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT.

$$
SCHAUER


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260252
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUL 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 92W FROM 07N TO 15N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WAS FROM 07N-09N BETWEEN 89W-94W.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 102W FROM 07N-15N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 99W-103W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 09N-11N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 16N120W TO 08N123W. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 08N-15N...EXCEPT WITHIN 390 NM
FROM 10N-13N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE ITCZ AXIS
AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N97W TO 10N110W TO 08N121W TO 10N130W
TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WAS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W-111W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 111W-119W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 75
NM AND 300 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1035 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NW OF THE AREA NEAR
44N160W AND EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N125W TO 18N110W.
THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA WERE ANALYZED AS A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SW OF THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 24N123W. THE ASCAT PASS AT
1730 UTC SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS STILL LIE WITHIN 120 NM N
SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP...BECOMING A TROUGH
BY MON. WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO MON NEAR THE SYSTEM UNDER PRIMARILY SW SWELL.

AS THE REMNANT LOW WEAKENS...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NE
WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AT THE SAME
TIME...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A
MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ARE FORCING MORE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE.
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT
THROUGH MON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF THE
ITCZ W OF 125W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHRINK S BUT
EXPAND E OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS WERE 7-9 FT IN NE WIND
WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF
130W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS.

A COMPLEX MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
ANALYZED FROM 16N120W TO 08N123W AND A NEWLY ANALYZED SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 113W FROM 09N-16N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 390 NM W OF THE TROUGH FROM 09N-16N. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
TWO SYSTEMS TO MERGE INTO A CLOSED CIRCULATION ON MON. THE
REMAINING TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS A RESULT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BUILD BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N...WITH E-SE WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE PRIMARILY BEHIND THE WAVE
MON AND SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT BY MON EVENING.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SOUTHERLY DISPLACED RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N
ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN IT AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
OFFSHORE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITH
THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT...AND PULSE AGAIN TO A
LESSER EXTENT OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT.

$$
SCHAUER


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260252
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUL 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 92W FROM 07N TO 15N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WAS FROM 07N-09N BETWEEN 89W-94W.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 102W FROM 07N-15N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 99W-103W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 09N-11N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 16N120W TO 08N123W. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 08N-15N...EXCEPT WITHIN 390 NM
FROM 10N-13N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE ITCZ AXIS
AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N97W TO 10N110W TO 08N121W TO 10N130W
TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WAS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W-111W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 111W-119W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 75
NM AND 300 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1035 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NW OF THE AREA NEAR
44N160W AND EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N125W TO 18N110W.
THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA WERE ANALYZED AS A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SW OF THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 24N123W. THE ASCAT PASS AT
1730 UTC SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS STILL LIE WITHIN 120 NM N
SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP...BECOMING A TROUGH
BY MON. WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO MON NEAR THE SYSTEM UNDER PRIMARILY SW SWELL.

AS THE REMNANT LOW WEAKENS...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NE
WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AT THE SAME
TIME...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A
MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ARE FORCING MORE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE.
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT
THROUGH MON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF THE
ITCZ W OF 125W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHRINK S BUT
EXPAND E OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS WERE 7-9 FT IN NE WIND
WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF
130W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS.

A COMPLEX MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
ANALYZED FROM 16N120W TO 08N123W AND A NEWLY ANALYZED SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 113W FROM 09N-16N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 390 NM W OF THE TROUGH FROM 09N-16N. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
TWO SYSTEMS TO MERGE INTO A CLOSED CIRCULATION ON MON. THE
REMAINING TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS A RESULT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BUILD BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N...WITH E-SE WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE PRIMARILY BEHIND THE WAVE
MON AND SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT BY MON EVENING.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SOUTHERLY DISPLACED RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N
ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN IT AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
OFFSHORE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITH
THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT...AND PULSE AGAIN TO A
LESSER EXTENT OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT.

$$
SCHAUER


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260252
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUL 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 92W FROM 07N TO 15N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WAS FROM 07N-09N BETWEEN 89W-94W.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 102W FROM 07N-15N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 99W-103W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 09N-11N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 16N120W TO 08N123W. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 08N-15N...EXCEPT WITHIN 390 NM
FROM 10N-13N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE ITCZ AXIS
AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N97W TO 10N110W TO 08N121W TO 10N130W
TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WAS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W-111W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 111W-119W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 75
NM AND 300 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1035 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NW OF THE AREA NEAR
44N160W AND EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N125W TO 18N110W.
THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA WERE ANALYZED AS A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SW OF THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 24N123W. THE ASCAT PASS AT
1730 UTC SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS STILL LIE WITHIN 120 NM N
SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP...BECOMING A TROUGH
BY MON. WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO MON NEAR THE SYSTEM UNDER PRIMARILY SW SWELL.

AS THE REMNANT LOW WEAKENS...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NE
WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AT THE SAME
TIME...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A
MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ARE FORCING MORE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE.
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT
THROUGH MON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF THE
ITCZ W OF 125W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHRINK S BUT
EXPAND E OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS WERE 7-9 FT IN NE WIND
WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF
130W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS.

A COMPLEX MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
ANALYZED FROM 16N120W TO 08N123W AND A NEWLY ANALYZED SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 113W FROM 09N-16N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 390 NM W OF THE TROUGH FROM 09N-16N. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
TWO SYSTEMS TO MERGE INTO A CLOSED CIRCULATION ON MON. THE
REMAINING TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS A RESULT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BUILD BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N...WITH E-SE WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE PRIMARILY BEHIND THE WAVE
MON AND SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT BY MON EVENING.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SOUTHERLY DISPLACED RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N
ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN IT AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
OFFSHORE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITH
THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT...AND PULSE AGAIN TO A
LESSER EXTENT OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT.

$$
SCHAUER


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260252
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUL 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 92W FROM 07N TO 15N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WAS FROM 07N-09N BETWEEN 89W-94W.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 102W FROM 07N-15N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 99W-103W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 09N-11N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 16N120W TO 08N123W. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 08N-15N...EXCEPT WITHIN 390 NM
FROM 10N-13N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE ITCZ AXIS
AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N97W TO 10N110W TO 08N121W TO 10N130W
TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WAS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W-111W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 111W-119W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 75
NM AND 300 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1035 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NW OF THE AREA NEAR
44N160W AND EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N125W TO 18N110W.
THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA WERE ANALYZED AS A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SW OF THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 24N123W. THE ASCAT PASS AT
1730 UTC SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS STILL LIE WITHIN 120 NM N
SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP...BECOMING A TROUGH
BY MON. WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO MON NEAR THE SYSTEM UNDER PRIMARILY SW SWELL.

AS THE REMNANT LOW WEAKENS...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NE
WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AT THE SAME
TIME...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A
MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ARE FORCING MORE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE.
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT
THROUGH MON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF THE
ITCZ W OF 125W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHRINK S BUT
EXPAND E OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS WERE 7-9 FT IN NE WIND
WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF
130W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS.

A COMPLEX MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
ANALYZED FROM 16N120W TO 08N123W AND A NEWLY ANALYZED SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 113W FROM 09N-16N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 390 NM W OF THE TROUGH FROM 09N-16N. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
TWO SYSTEMS TO MERGE INTO A CLOSED CIRCULATION ON MON. THE
REMAINING TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS A RESULT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BUILD BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N...WITH E-SE WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE PRIMARILY BEHIND THE WAVE
MON AND SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT BY MON EVENING.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SOUTHERLY DISPLACED RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N
ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN IT AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
OFFSHORE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITH
THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT...AND PULSE AGAIN TO A
LESSER EXTENT OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT.

$$
SCHAUER



000
AXNT20 KNHC 260006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW N
ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT
GALE-FORCE WINDS STARTING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED SEAS
WILL RANGE FROM 11 TO 14 FT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH A 1012
MB LOW NEAR 12N26W...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15 KT.
ENHANCEMENTS OF METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS BEING ENGULFED
BY SAHARAN DRY AIR WHILE DUST COVERS THE WAVE NORTHERN
ENVIRONMENT THAT CURRENTLY LACKS CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF THE LOW AND THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N
TO 11N BETWEEN 23W AND 28W BEING SUPPORTED BY A MODERATE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW IMAGERY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 45W...
MOVING W AT 15 KT. METEOSAT SAL AND DUST TRACKING PRODUCTS AND
RGB IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST OVER THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...THUS HINDERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR
65W...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW DRY
AIR DOMINATES THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...EXCEPT SE OF THE WAVE AXIS
WHERE A SMALL SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS S
OF 16N...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
12N16W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 12N26W TO 08N36W. THE ITCZ BEGINS
NEAR 07N39W TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 04N52W. OTHER
THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN ATLC TROPICAL
WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 15N E OF
20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC WITH BASE EXTENDING S-
SW TO THE NE FLORIDA PENINSULA ADJACENT WATERS. THIS TROUGH
ALOFT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM 29N80W NW TO 30N84W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT. EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A BROAD RIDGE
CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND GENERATES A
DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THAT ALONG
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EXTENDING WEST TO THE EASTERN GULF E OF 90W. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
GULF...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC EXTENDS AN AXIS SW
ACROSS CENTRAL-SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN. THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF IS BEING ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH
NEAR 24N90W THAT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING VARIABLE LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF...EXCEPT THE NE BASIN WHERE N-NW WINDS OF 15 KT DOMINATE.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH A LOW CENTER DEVELOPING E OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA TO THE E BASIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE NE GULF DURING THIS PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS WHILE A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED W OF
DOMINICA COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND
FLOW BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE
SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG CUBA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS WESTERN HISPANIOLA. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY EMBEDDED IN A DRY
ENVIRONMENT WITH DUST BEING REPORTED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SE OF ITS AXIS EXTENDING TO THE WINDWARD
ISLAND. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLC AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA SUPPORTS NE TO E WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT
FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 9
TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W WINDS
ARE FROM THE NE-E RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO
11 FT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 75W AND
82W HAVE WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN
NE TO E SWELL. WINDS N OF COLOMBIA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY AN ELONGATED UPPER-
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A BROAD RIDGE
CENTERED W OF DOMINICA COMBINED WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER HAITI. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. HOWEVER, A
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE S OF THE ISLAND ON
SUNDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS MAINLY FOR THE E-SE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC WITH BASE EXTENDING S-
SW TO THE NE FLORIDA PENINSULA ADJACENT WATERS. THIS TROUGH
ALOFT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N75W SW TO
29N80W...NW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO 30N84W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT. EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A
BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
GENERATES A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE SW N ATLC WATERS. THIS DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE SW N ATLC SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 25N W OF 74W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 27N BETWEEN 56W AND 64W. THE
REMAINDER BASIN IS BEING DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR
WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 260006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW N
ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT
GALE-FORCE WINDS STARTING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED SEAS
WILL RANGE FROM 11 TO 14 FT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH A 1012
MB LOW NEAR 12N26W...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15 KT.
ENHANCEMENTS OF METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS BEING ENGULFED
BY SAHARAN DRY AIR WHILE DUST COVERS THE WAVE NORTHERN
ENVIRONMENT THAT CURRENTLY LACKS CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF THE LOW AND THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N
TO 11N BETWEEN 23W AND 28W BEING SUPPORTED BY A MODERATE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW IMAGERY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 45W...
MOVING W AT 15 KT. METEOSAT SAL AND DUST TRACKING PRODUCTS AND
RGB IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST OVER THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...THUS HINDERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR
65W...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW DRY
AIR DOMINATES THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...EXCEPT SE OF THE WAVE AXIS
WHERE A SMALL SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS S
OF 16N...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
12N16W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 12N26W TO 08N36W. THE ITCZ BEGINS
NEAR 07N39W TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 04N52W. OTHER
THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN ATLC TROPICAL
WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 15N E OF
20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC WITH BASE EXTENDING S-
SW TO THE NE FLORIDA PENINSULA ADJACENT WATERS. THIS TROUGH
ALOFT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM 29N80W NW TO 30N84W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT. EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A BROAD RIDGE
CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND GENERATES A
DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THAT ALONG
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EXTENDING WEST TO THE EASTERN GULF E OF 90W. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
GULF...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC EXTENDS AN AXIS SW
ACROSS CENTRAL-SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN. THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF IS BEING ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH
NEAR 24N90W THAT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING VARIABLE LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF...EXCEPT THE NE BASIN WHERE N-NW WINDS OF 15 KT DOMINATE.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH A LOW CENTER DEVELOPING E OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA TO THE E BASIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE NE GULF DURING THIS PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS WHILE A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED W OF
DOMINICA COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND
FLOW BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE
SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG CUBA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS WESTERN HISPANIOLA. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY EMBEDDED IN A DRY
ENVIRONMENT WITH DUST BEING REPORTED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SE OF ITS AXIS EXTENDING TO THE WINDWARD
ISLAND. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLC AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA SUPPORTS NE TO E WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT
FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 9
TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W WINDS
ARE FROM THE NE-E RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO
11 FT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 75W AND
82W HAVE WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN
NE TO E SWELL. WINDS N OF COLOMBIA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY AN ELONGATED UPPER-
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A BROAD RIDGE
CENTERED W OF DOMINICA COMBINED WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER HAITI. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. HOWEVER, A
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE S OF THE ISLAND ON
SUNDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS MAINLY FOR THE E-SE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC WITH BASE EXTENDING S-
SW TO THE NE FLORIDA PENINSULA ADJACENT WATERS. THIS TROUGH
ALOFT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N75W SW TO
29N80W...NW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO 30N84W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT. EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A
BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
GENERATES A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE SW N ATLC WATERS. THIS DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE SW N ATLC SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 25N W OF 74W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 27N BETWEEN 56W AND 64W. THE
REMAINDER BASIN IS BEING DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR
WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 260006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW N
ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT
GALE-FORCE WINDS STARTING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED SEAS
WILL RANGE FROM 11 TO 14 FT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH A 1012
MB LOW NEAR 12N26W...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15 KT.
ENHANCEMENTS OF METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS BEING ENGULFED
BY SAHARAN DRY AIR WHILE DUST COVERS THE WAVE NORTHERN
ENVIRONMENT THAT CURRENTLY LACKS CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF THE LOW AND THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N
TO 11N BETWEEN 23W AND 28W BEING SUPPORTED BY A MODERATE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW IMAGERY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 45W...
MOVING W AT 15 KT. METEOSAT SAL AND DUST TRACKING PRODUCTS AND
RGB IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST OVER THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...THUS HINDERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR
65W...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW DRY
AIR DOMINATES THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...EXCEPT SE OF THE WAVE AXIS
WHERE A SMALL SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS S
OF 16N...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
12N16W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 12N26W TO 08N36W. THE ITCZ BEGINS
NEAR 07N39W TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 04N52W. OTHER
THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN ATLC TROPICAL
WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 15N E OF
20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC WITH BASE EXTENDING S-
SW TO THE NE FLORIDA PENINSULA ADJACENT WATERS. THIS TROUGH
ALOFT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM 29N80W NW TO 30N84W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT. EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A BROAD RIDGE
CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND GENERATES A
DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THAT ALONG
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EXTENDING WEST TO THE EASTERN GULF E OF 90W. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
GULF...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC EXTENDS AN AXIS SW
ACROSS CENTRAL-SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN. THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF IS BEING ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH
NEAR 24N90W THAT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING VARIABLE LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF...EXCEPT THE NE BASIN WHERE N-NW WINDS OF 15 KT DOMINATE.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH A LOW CENTER DEVELOPING E OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA TO THE E BASIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE NE GULF DURING THIS PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS WHILE A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED W OF
DOMINICA COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND
FLOW BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE
SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG CUBA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS WESTERN HISPANIOLA. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY EMBEDDED IN A DRY
ENVIRONMENT WITH DUST BEING REPORTED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SE OF ITS AXIS EXTENDING TO THE WINDWARD
ISLAND. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLC AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA SUPPORTS NE TO E WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT
FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 9
TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W WINDS
ARE FROM THE NE-E RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO
11 FT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 75W AND
82W HAVE WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN
NE TO E SWELL. WINDS N OF COLOMBIA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY AN ELONGATED UPPER-
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A BROAD RIDGE
CENTERED W OF DOMINICA COMBINED WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER HAITI. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. HOWEVER, A
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE S OF THE ISLAND ON
SUNDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS MAINLY FOR THE E-SE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC WITH BASE EXTENDING S-
SW TO THE NE FLORIDA PENINSULA ADJACENT WATERS. THIS TROUGH
ALOFT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N75W SW TO
29N80W...NW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO 30N84W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT. EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A
BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
GENERATES A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE SW N ATLC WATERS. THIS DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE SW N ATLC SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 25N W OF 74W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 27N BETWEEN 56W AND 64W. THE
REMAINDER BASIN IS BEING DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR
WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 260006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW N
ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT
GALE-FORCE WINDS STARTING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED SEAS
WILL RANGE FROM 11 TO 14 FT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH A 1012
MB LOW NEAR 12N26W...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15 KT.
ENHANCEMENTS OF METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS BEING ENGULFED
BY SAHARAN DRY AIR WHILE DUST COVERS THE WAVE NORTHERN
ENVIRONMENT THAT CURRENTLY LACKS CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF THE LOW AND THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N
TO 11N BETWEEN 23W AND 28W BEING SUPPORTED BY A MODERATE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW IMAGERY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 45W...
MOVING W AT 15 KT. METEOSAT SAL AND DUST TRACKING PRODUCTS AND
RGB IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST OVER THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...THUS HINDERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR
65W...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW DRY
AIR DOMINATES THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...EXCEPT SE OF THE WAVE AXIS
WHERE A SMALL SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS S
OF 16N...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
12N16W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 12N26W TO 08N36W. THE ITCZ BEGINS
NEAR 07N39W TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 04N52W. OTHER
THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN ATLC TROPICAL
WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 15N E OF
20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC WITH BASE EXTENDING S-
SW TO THE NE FLORIDA PENINSULA ADJACENT WATERS. THIS TROUGH
ALOFT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM 29N80W NW TO 30N84W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT. EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A BROAD RIDGE
CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND GENERATES A
DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THAT ALONG
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EXTENDING WEST TO THE EASTERN GULF E OF 90W. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
GULF...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC EXTENDS AN AXIS SW
ACROSS CENTRAL-SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN. THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF IS BEING ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH
NEAR 24N90W THAT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING VARIABLE LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF...EXCEPT THE NE BASIN WHERE N-NW WINDS OF 15 KT DOMINATE.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH A LOW CENTER DEVELOPING E OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA TO THE E BASIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE NE GULF DURING THIS PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS WHILE A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED W OF
DOMINICA COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND
FLOW BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE
SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG CUBA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS WESTERN HISPANIOLA. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY EMBEDDED IN A DRY
ENVIRONMENT WITH DUST BEING REPORTED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SE OF ITS AXIS EXTENDING TO THE WINDWARD
ISLAND. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLC AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA SUPPORTS NE TO E WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT
FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 9
TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W WINDS
ARE FROM THE NE-E RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO
11 FT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 75W AND
82W HAVE WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN
NE TO E SWELL. WINDS N OF COLOMBIA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY AN ELONGATED UPPER-
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A BROAD RIDGE
CENTERED W OF DOMINICA COMBINED WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER HAITI. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. HOWEVER, A
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE S OF THE ISLAND ON
SUNDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS MAINLY FOR THE E-SE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC WITH BASE EXTENDING S-
SW TO THE NE FLORIDA PENINSULA ADJACENT WATERS. THIS TROUGH
ALOFT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N75W SW TO
29N80W...NW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO 30N84W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT. EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A
BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
GENERATES A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE SW N ATLC WATERS. THIS DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE SW N ATLC SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 25N W OF 74W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 27N BETWEEN 56W AND 64W. THE
REMAINDER BASIN IS BEING DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR
WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
ACPN50 PHFO 252345
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SAT JUL 25 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 1450 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

BURKE






000
ACPN50 PHFO 252345
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SAT JUL 25 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 1450 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

BURKE





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 252341
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT SABADO 25 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION SE EXTIENDE DESDE EL ESTE DEL GOLFO
DE MEXICO HACIA EL ESTE A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA Y
HASTA LAS AGUAS ADYACENTES DEL ATLANTICO ESTA PRODUCIENDO NUBOSIDAD
Y TRONADAS DESORGANIZADAS. LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS NO ESTAN
CONDUCENTES PARA QUE ESTE SISTEMA ADQUIERA CARACTERISTICAS SUB
TROPICALES O TROPICALES Y DESARROLLO SI OCURRE ALGUNO SERA LENTO.
SIN EMBARGO...LLUVIAS LOCALMENTE FUERTES PUEDEN SER ANTICIPADOS A
TRAVES DE PORCIONES DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DURANTE EL FIN DE
SEMANA Y HASTA PRINCIPIOS DE LA PROXIMA SEMANA.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS...BAJA...
CERCA DE 0 POR CIENTO.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS CINCO DIAS...BAJA...
10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 252341
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT SABADO 25 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION SE EXTIENDE DESDE EL ESTE DEL GOLFO
DE MEXICO HACIA EL ESTE A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA Y
HASTA LAS AGUAS ADYACENTES DEL ATLANTICO ESTA PRODUCIENDO NUBOSIDAD
Y TRONADAS DESORGANIZADAS. LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS NO ESTAN
CONDUCENTES PARA QUE ESTE SISTEMA ADQUIERA CARACTERISTICAS SUB
TROPICALES O TROPICALES Y DESARROLLO SI OCURRE ALGUNO SERA LENTO.
SIN EMBARGO...LLUVIAS LOCALMENTE FUERTES PUEDEN SER ANTICIPADOS A
TRAVES DE PORCIONES DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DURANTE EL FIN DE
SEMANA Y HASTA PRINCIPIOS DE LA PROXIMA SEMANA.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS...BAJA...
CERCA DE 0 POR CIENTO.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS CINCO DIAS...BAJA...
10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 252341
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT SABADO 25 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION SE EXTIENDE DESDE EL ESTE DEL GOLFO
DE MEXICO HACIA EL ESTE A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA Y
HASTA LAS AGUAS ADYACENTES DEL ATLANTICO ESTA PRODUCIENDO NUBOSIDAD
Y TRONADAS DESORGANIZADAS. LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS NO ESTAN
CONDUCENTES PARA QUE ESTE SISTEMA ADQUIERA CARACTERISTICAS SUB
TROPICALES O TROPICALES Y DESARROLLO SI OCURRE ALGUNO SERA LENTO.
SIN EMBARGO...LLUVIAS LOCALMENTE FUERTES PUEDEN SER ANTICIPADOS A
TRAVES DE PORCIONES DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DURANTE EL FIN DE
SEMANA Y HASTA PRINCIPIOS DE LA PROXIMA SEMANA.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS...BAJA...
CERCA DE 0 POR CIENTO.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS CINCO DIAS...BAJA...
10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 252341
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT SABADO 25 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION SE EXTIENDE DESDE EL ESTE DEL GOLFO
DE MEXICO HACIA EL ESTE A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA Y
HASTA LAS AGUAS ADYACENTES DEL ATLANTICO ESTA PRODUCIENDO NUBOSIDAD
Y TRONADAS DESORGANIZADAS. LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS NO ESTAN
CONDUCENTES PARA QUE ESTE SISTEMA ADQUIERA CARACTERISTICAS SUB
TROPICALES O TROPICALES Y DESARROLLO SI OCURRE ALGUNO SERA LENTO.
SIN EMBARGO...LLUVIAS LOCALMENTE FUERTES PUEDEN SER ANTICIPADOS A
TRAVES DE PORCIONES DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DURANTE EL FIN DE
SEMANA Y HASTA PRINCIPIOS DE LA PROXIMA SEMANA.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS...BAJA...
CERCA DE 0 POR CIENTO.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS CINCO DIAS...BAJA...
10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA



000
ABNT20 KNHC 252330
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated area of low pressure extending from the eastern Gulf
of Mexico eastward across the Florida peninsula and into the
adjacent Atlantic waters is producing disorganized cloudiness and
thunderstorms.  Upper-level winds are not favorable for tropical
or subtropical cyclone formation, and development, if any, will
be very slow to occur. Locally heavy rainfall can be expected across
portions of the Florida peninsula through the weekend and into early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABNT20 KNHC 252330
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated area of low pressure extending from the eastern Gulf
of Mexico eastward across the Florida peninsula and into the
adjacent Atlantic waters is producing disorganized cloudiness and
thunderstorms.  Upper-level winds are not favorable for tropical
or subtropical cyclone formation, and development, if any, will
be very slow to occur. Locally heavy rainfall can be expected across
portions of the Florida peninsula through the weekend and into early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
ABNT20 KNHC 252330
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated area of low pressure extending from the eastern Gulf
of Mexico eastward across the Florida peninsula and into the
adjacent Atlantic waters is producing disorganized cloudiness and
thunderstorms.  Upper-level winds are not favorable for tropical
or subtropical cyclone formation, and development, if any, will
be very slow to occur. Locally heavy rainfall can be expected across
portions of the Florida peninsula through the weekend and into early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
ABNT20 KNHC 252330
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated area of low pressure extending from the eastern Gulf
of Mexico eastward across the Florida peninsula and into the
adjacent Atlantic waters is producing disorganized cloudiness and
thunderstorms.  Upper-level winds are not favorable for tropical
or subtropical cyclone formation, and development, if any, will
be very slow to occur. Locally heavy rainfall can be expected across
portions of the Florida peninsula through the weekend and into early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 252329
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms centered
about 950 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula is associated with an area of low pressure
along a tropical wave.  Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle of next week while the low moves west-northwestward at around
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Another area of low pressure could form early next week well to the
south-southwest or southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for slow development of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 252329
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms centered
about 950 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula is associated with an area of low pressure
along a tropical wave.  Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle of next week while the low moves west-northwestward at around
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Another area of low pressure could form early next week well to the
south-southwest or southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for slow development of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 252329
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms centered
about 950 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula is associated with an area of low pressure
along a tropical wave.  Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle of next week while the low moves west-northwestward at around
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Another area of low pressure could form early next week well to the
south-southwest or southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for slow development of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252142
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JUL 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 90W N OF 07N. THE WAVE WAS
MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WAS WITHIN 45 NM E AND 120 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 07N-09N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 100W FROM 03N-15N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
WITHIN 180 NM E AND 120 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 03N-06N AS WELL AS
WITHIN 390 NM W OF AXIS WAVE 08N-12N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 17N118W TO 06N122W. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS 90 NM E AND 150 NM W OF THE WAVE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE ITCZ AXIS
AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N97W TO 10N110W TO 07N122W TO 10N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 06N-
16N BETWEEN 103W-117W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1035 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NW OF THE AREA NEAR
44N161W AND EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N121W TO 18N109W.
THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA WERE SW OF THE RIDGE. THE ASCAT PASS AT
1730 UTC SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS STILL LIE WITHIN 120 NM N
SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP...BECOMING A TROUGH
LATE SUN. WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO MON NEAR THE SYSTEM UNDER PRIMARILY SW SWELL.

AS THE REMNANT LOW WEAKENS...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NE
WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AT THE SAME
TIME...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SW
UNITED STATES. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE EVENING
HOURS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF THE
ITCZ W OF 125W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHRINK S BUT
EXPAND E OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS WERE 7-9 FT IN NE WIND
WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF
130W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SOUTHERLY DISPLACED RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N
ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN IT AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
AS WELL AS TROUGHING TO THE W OF PAPAGAYO ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1552 UTC STILL
SHOWED NE WINDS TO 30 KT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE
WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. OFFSHORE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
PULSE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10
FT...AND PULSE AGAIN TO A LESSER EXTENT OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT.

$$
SCHAUER


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252142
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JUL 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 90W N OF 07N. THE WAVE WAS
MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WAS WITHIN 45 NM E AND 120 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 07N-09N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 100W FROM 03N-15N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
WITHIN 180 NM E AND 120 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 03N-06N AS WELL AS
WITHIN 390 NM W OF AXIS WAVE 08N-12N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 17N118W TO 06N122W. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS 90 NM E AND 150 NM W OF THE WAVE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE ITCZ AXIS
AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N97W TO 10N110W TO 07N122W TO 10N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 06N-
16N BETWEEN 103W-117W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1035 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NW OF THE AREA NEAR
44N161W AND EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N121W TO 18N109W.
THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA WERE SW OF THE RIDGE. THE ASCAT PASS AT
1730 UTC SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS STILL LIE WITHIN 120 NM N
SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP...BECOMING A TROUGH
LATE SUN. WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO MON NEAR THE SYSTEM UNDER PRIMARILY SW SWELL.

AS THE REMNANT LOW WEAKENS...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NE
WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AT THE SAME
TIME...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SW
UNITED STATES. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE EVENING
HOURS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF THE
ITCZ W OF 125W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHRINK S BUT
EXPAND E OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS WERE 7-9 FT IN NE WIND
WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF
130W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SOUTHERLY DISPLACED RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N
ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN IT AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
AS WELL AS TROUGHING TO THE W OF PAPAGAYO ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1552 UTC STILL
SHOWED NE WINDS TO 30 KT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE
WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. OFFSHORE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
PULSE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10
FT...AND PULSE AGAIN TO A LESSER EXTENT OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT.

$$
SCHAUER



000
AXNT20 KNHC 251750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE
WINDS TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT WITHIN 120 NM OF THE NW
COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS TO 14 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 15N24W TO 07N24W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW
IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N25W WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT S OF 14N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N
TO 12N BETWEEN 22W AND 28W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 14N43W TO 06N44W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THIS WAVE IS DEPICTED WELL IN MODEL 700 MB STREAMLINES
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH FROM 41W TO 49W. MUCH OF THIS WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN DRY AIR EMBEDDED IN SAHARAN DUST N OF 9N...WHICH IS
INHIBITING CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS BEGINNING TO CROSS THE WINWARD ISLANDS WITH
AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N59W TO 07N61W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A SURGE IN DEEP MOISTURE IS NOTED
JUST AHEAD OF THE WAVE...WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM CALM TO SE AT 20
KT AT TOBAGO THIS MORNING AS THE WAVE PASSED. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND E PAC. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS WAVE PLEASE
SEE THE PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATWDEP FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
13N16W TO 07N34W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS FROM 07N34W
TO 03N48W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN
ATLC TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200
NM OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AXIS W OF 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NW ATLC TO THE FL
PENINSULA SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER N FL WITH A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N86W TO CENTRAL FL NEAR 28N81W AND
OVER THE W ATLC. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH...AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
25N TO 29N BETWEEN 89W AND THE FL PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
GULF...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO THE W
CUBA AND NW OVER THE GULF TO THE TX COAST. GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF S OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. W
TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE N OF THE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE NE GULF TONIGHT AND MERGE WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH
ON SUNDAY. THIS PORTION OF THE GULF WILL BE THE FOCUS OF ONGOING
CONVECTION THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
DOMINATING THE AREA W OF 73W WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS W
REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 09N TO 12N W OF 81W.
ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 23N
BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE
LESSER ANTILLES. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA
SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS S OF 17N BETWEEN 72W AND
81W. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. WINDS N OF COLOMBIA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD W OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION OVER THE ISLAND TODAY. A
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
TO THE ISLAND BY LATE SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N76W TO N FL NEAR 30N82W. A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N76W TO CENTRAL FL
NEAR 28N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO
31N BETWEEN 70W AND THE FL PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N TO 31N
BETWEEN 57W AND 62W. THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE NW ATLC UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N65W. A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N34W
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC W OF 50W WITH GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC.
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S AND BECOME
STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL FL TO NEAR 30N75W. CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN LIKELY WITHIN 200 NM OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 251750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE
WINDS TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT WITHIN 120 NM OF THE NW
COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS TO 14 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 15N24W TO 07N24W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW
IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N25W WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT S OF 14N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N
TO 12N BETWEEN 22W AND 28W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 14N43W TO 06N44W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THIS WAVE IS DEPICTED WELL IN MODEL 700 MB STREAMLINES
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH FROM 41W TO 49W. MUCH OF THIS WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN DRY AIR EMBEDDED IN SAHARAN DUST N OF 9N...WHICH IS
INHIBITING CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS BEGINNING TO CROSS THE WINWARD ISLANDS WITH
AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N59W TO 07N61W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A SURGE IN DEEP MOISTURE IS NOTED
JUST AHEAD OF THE WAVE...WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM CALM TO SE AT 20
KT AT TOBAGO THIS MORNING AS THE WAVE PASSED. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND E PAC. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS WAVE PLEASE
SEE THE PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATWDEP FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
13N16W TO 07N34W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS FROM 07N34W
TO 03N48W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN
ATLC TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200
NM OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AXIS W OF 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NW ATLC TO THE FL
PENINSULA SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER N FL WITH A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N86W TO CENTRAL FL NEAR 28N81W AND
OVER THE W ATLC. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH...AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
25N TO 29N BETWEEN 89W AND THE FL PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
GULF...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO THE W
CUBA AND NW OVER THE GULF TO THE TX COAST. GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF S OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. W
TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE N OF THE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE NE GULF TONIGHT AND MERGE WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH
ON SUNDAY. THIS PORTION OF THE GULF WILL BE THE FOCUS OF ONGOING
CONVECTION THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
DOMINATING THE AREA W OF 73W WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS W
REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 09N TO 12N W OF 81W.
ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 23N
BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE
LESSER ANTILLES. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA
SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS S OF 17N BETWEEN 72W AND
81W. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. WINDS N OF COLOMBIA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD W OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION OVER THE ISLAND TODAY. A
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
TO THE ISLAND BY LATE SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N76W TO N FL NEAR 30N82W. A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N76W TO CENTRAL FL
NEAR 28N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO
31N BETWEEN 70W AND THE FL PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N TO 31N
BETWEEN 57W AND 62W. THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE NW ATLC UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N65W. A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N34W
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC W OF 50W WITH GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC.
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S AND BECOME
STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL FL TO NEAR 30N75W. CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN LIKELY WITHIN 200 NM OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO


000
AXNT20 KNHC 251750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE
WINDS TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT WITHIN 120 NM OF THE NW
COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS TO 14 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 15N24W TO 07N24W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW
IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N25W WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT S OF 14N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N
TO 12N BETWEEN 22W AND 28W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 14N43W TO 06N44W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THIS WAVE IS DEPICTED WELL IN MODEL 700 MB STREAMLINES
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH FROM 41W TO 49W. MUCH OF THIS WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN DRY AIR EMBEDDED IN SAHARAN DUST N OF 9N...WHICH IS
INHIBITING CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS BEGINNING TO CROSS THE WINWARD ISLANDS WITH
AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N59W TO 07N61W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A SURGE IN DEEP MOISTURE IS NOTED
JUST AHEAD OF THE WAVE...WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM CALM TO SE AT 20
KT AT TOBAGO THIS MORNING AS THE WAVE PASSED. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND E PAC. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS WAVE PLEASE
SEE THE PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATWDEP FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
13N16W TO 07N34W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS FROM 07N34W
TO 03N48W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN
ATLC TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200
NM OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AXIS W OF 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NW ATLC TO THE FL
PENINSULA SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER N FL WITH A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N86W TO CENTRAL FL NEAR 28N81W AND
OVER THE W ATLC. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH...AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
25N TO 29N BETWEEN 89W AND THE FL PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
GULF...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO THE W
CUBA AND NW OVER THE GULF TO THE TX COAST. GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF S OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. W
TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE N OF THE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE NE GULF TONIGHT AND MERGE WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH
ON SUNDAY. THIS PORTION OF THE GULF WILL BE THE FOCUS OF ONGOING
CONVECTION THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
DOMINATING THE AREA W OF 73W WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS W
REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 09N TO 12N W OF 81W.
ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 23N
BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE
LESSER ANTILLES. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA
SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS S OF 17N BETWEEN 72W AND
81W. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. WINDS N OF COLOMBIA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD W OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION OVER THE ISLAND TODAY. A
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
TO THE ISLAND BY LATE SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N76W TO N FL NEAR 30N82W. A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N76W TO CENTRAL FL
NEAR 28N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO
31N BETWEEN 70W AND THE FL PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N TO 31N
BETWEEN 57W AND 62W. THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE NW ATLC UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N65W. A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N34W
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC W OF 50W WITH GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC.
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S AND BECOME
STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL FL TO NEAR 30N75W. CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN LIKELY WITHIN 200 NM OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO



000
AXNT20 KNHC 251750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE
WINDS TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT WITHIN 120 NM OF THE NW
COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS TO 14 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 15N24W TO 07N24W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW
IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N25W WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT S OF 14N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N
TO 12N BETWEEN 22W AND 28W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 14N43W TO 06N44W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THIS WAVE IS DEPICTED WELL IN MODEL 700 MB STREAMLINES
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH FROM 41W TO 49W. MUCH OF THIS WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN DRY AIR EMBEDDED IN SAHARAN DUST N OF 9N...WHICH IS
INHIBITING CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS BEGINNING TO CROSS THE WINWARD ISLANDS WITH
AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N59W TO 07N61W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A SURGE IN DEEP MOISTURE IS NOTED
JUST AHEAD OF THE WAVE...WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM CALM TO SE AT 20
KT AT TOBAGO THIS MORNING AS THE WAVE PASSED. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND E PAC. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS WAVE PLEASE
SEE THE PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATWDEP FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
13N16W TO 07N34W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS FROM 07N34W
TO 03N48W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN
ATLC TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200
NM OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AXIS W OF 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NW ATLC TO THE FL
PENINSULA SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER N FL WITH A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N86W TO CENTRAL FL NEAR 28N81W AND
OVER THE W ATLC. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH...AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
25N TO 29N BETWEEN 89W AND THE FL PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
GULF...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO THE W
CUBA AND NW OVER THE GULF TO THE TX COAST. GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF S OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. W
TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE N OF THE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE NE GULF TONIGHT AND MERGE WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH
ON SUNDAY. THIS PORTION OF THE GULF WILL BE THE FOCUS OF ONGOING
CONVECTION THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
DOMINATING THE AREA W OF 73W WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS W
REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 09N TO 12N W OF 81W.
ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 23N
BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE
LESSER ANTILLES. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA
SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS S OF 17N BETWEEN 72W AND
81W. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. WINDS N OF COLOMBIA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD W OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION OVER THE ISLAND TODAY. A
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
TO THE ISLAND BY LATE SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N76W TO N FL NEAR 30N82W. A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N76W TO CENTRAL FL
NEAR 28N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO
31N BETWEEN 70W AND THE FL PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N TO 31N
BETWEEN 57W AND 62W. THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE NW ATLC UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N65W. A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N34W
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC W OF 50W WITH GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC.
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S AND BECOME
STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL FL TO NEAR 30N75W. CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN LIKELY WITHIN 200 NM OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO



000
ACPN50 PHFO 251746
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SAT JUL 25 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 1400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.


$$

BURKE





000
ACPN50 PHFO 251746
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SAT JUL 25 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 1400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.


$$

BURKE






000
ACPN50 PHFO 251746
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SAT JUL 25 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 1400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.


$$

BURKE






000
ACPN50 PHFO 251746
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SAT JUL 25 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 1400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.


$$

BURKE






000
ACPN50 PHFO 251746
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SAT JUL 25 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 1400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.


$$

BURKE






000
ACPN50 PHFO 251746
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SAT JUL 25 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 1400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.


$$

BURKE






000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251737
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An extensive area of showers and thunderstorms well southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is associated with
an area of low pressure along a tropical wave.  Environmental
conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form by the middle of next week while the low moves
westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Another area of low pressure could form early next week well
to the south-southwest or southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for slow development of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251737
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An extensive area of showers and thunderstorms well southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is associated with
an area of low pressure along a tropical wave.  Environmental
conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form by the middle of next week while the low moves
westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Another area of low pressure could form early next week well
to the south-southwest or southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for slow development of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251737
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An extensive area of showers and thunderstorms well southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is associated with
an area of low pressure along a tropical wave.  Environmental
conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form by the middle of next week while the low moves
westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Another area of low pressure could form early next week well
to the south-southwest or southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for slow development of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251737
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An extensive area of showers and thunderstorms well southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is associated with
an area of low pressure along a tropical wave.  Environmental
conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form by the middle of next week while the low moves
westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Another area of low pressure could form early next week well
to the south-southwest or southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for slow development of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 251719
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT SABADO 25 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION SE EXTIENDE DESDE EL ESTE DEL GOLFO
DE MEXICO HACIA EL ESTE A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA Y
HASTA LAS AGUAS ADYACENTES DEL ATLANTICO. SE PRONOSTICA QUE LOS
VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS ESTARAN SOLO MARGINALMETE CONDUCENTES
PARA QUE ESTE SISTEMA ADQUIERA CARACTERISTICAS SUB TROPICALES O
TROPICALES MIENTRAS SE MANTIENE CASI ESTACIONARIA DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS DIAS. SIN EMBARGO...LLUVIAS LOCALMENTE FUERTES PUEDEN SER
ANTICIPADOS A TRAVES DE PORCIONES DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA
DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA Y HASTA PRINCIPIOS DE LA PROXIMA SEMANA.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS CINCO
 DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 251719
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT SABADO 25 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION SE EXTIENDE DESDE EL ESTE DEL GOLFO
DE MEXICO HACIA EL ESTE A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA Y
HASTA LAS AGUAS ADYACENTES DEL ATLANTICO. SE PRONOSTICA QUE LOS
VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS ESTARAN SOLO MARGINALMETE CONDUCENTES
PARA QUE ESTE SISTEMA ADQUIERA CARACTERISTICAS SUB TROPICALES O
TROPICALES MIENTRAS SE MANTIENE CASI ESTACIONARIA DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS DIAS. SIN EMBARGO...LLUVIAS LOCALMENTE FUERTES PUEDEN SER
ANTICIPADOS A TRAVES DE PORCIONES DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA
DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA Y HASTA PRINCIPIOS DE LA PROXIMA SEMANA.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS CINCO
 DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 251719
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT SABADO 25 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION SE EXTIENDE DESDE EL ESTE DEL GOLFO
DE MEXICO HACIA EL ESTE A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA Y
HASTA LAS AGUAS ADYACENTES DEL ATLANTICO. SE PRONOSTICA QUE LOS
VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS ESTARAN SOLO MARGINALMETE CONDUCENTES
PARA QUE ESTE SISTEMA ADQUIERA CARACTERISTICAS SUB TROPICALES O
TROPICALES MIENTRAS SE MANTIENE CASI ESTACIONARIA DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS DIAS. SIN EMBARGO...LLUVIAS LOCALMENTE FUERTES PUEDEN SER
ANTICIPADOS A TRAVES DE PORCIONES DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA
DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA Y HASTA PRINCIPIOS DE LA PROXIMA SEMANA.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS CINCO
 DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 251719
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT SABADO 25 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA ALARGADA DE BAJA PRESION SE EXTIENDE DESDE EL ESTE DEL GOLFO
DE MEXICO HACIA EL ESTE A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA Y
HASTA LAS AGUAS ADYACENTES DEL ATLANTICO. SE PRONOSTICA QUE LOS
VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS ESTARAN SOLO MARGINALMETE CONDUCENTES
PARA QUE ESTE SISTEMA ADQUIERA CARACTERISTICAS SUB TROPICALES O
TROPICALES MIENTRAS SE MANTIENE CASI ESTACIONARIA DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS DIAS. SIN EMBARGO...LLUVIAS LOCALMENTE FUERTES PUEDEN SER
ANTICIPADOS A TRAVES DE PORCIONES DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA
DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA Y HASTA PRINCIPIOS DE LA PROXIMA SEMANA.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS CINCO
 DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART


000
ABNT20 KNHC 251712
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated area of low pressure extends from the eastern Gulf of
Mexico eastward across the Florida peninsula and into the adjacent
Atlantic waters.  Upper-level winds are forecast to be only
marginally conducive for this system to acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics while it remains nearly stationary during
the next several days.  However, locally heavy rainfall can be
expected across portions of the Florida peninsula through the
weekend and into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 251712
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated area of low pressure extends from the eastern Gulf of
Mexico eastward across the Florida peninsula and into the adjacent
Atlantic waters.  Upper-level winds are forecast to be only
marginally conducive for this system to acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics while it remains nearly stationary during
the next several days.  However, locally heavy rainfall can be
expected across portions of the Florida peninsula through the
weekend and into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABNT20 KNHC 251712
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated area of low pressure extends from the eastern Gulf of
Mexico eastward across the Florida peninsula and into the adjacent
Atlantic waters.  Upper-level winds are forecast to be only
marginally conducive for this system to acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics while it remains nearly stationary during
the next several days.  However, locally heavy rainfall can be
expected across portions of the Florida peninsula through the
weekend and into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 251712
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated area of low pressure extends from the eastern Gulf of
Mexico eastward across the Florida peninsula and into the adjacent
Atlantic waters.  Upper-level winds are forecast to be only
marginally conducive for this system to acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics while it remains nearly stationary during
the next several days.  However, locally heavy rainfall can be
expected across portions of the Florida peninsula through the
weekend and into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 251712
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated area of low pressure extends from the eastern Gulf of
Mexico eastward across the Florida peninsula and into the adjacent
Atlantic waters.  Upper-level winds are forecast to be only
marginally conducive for this system to acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics while it remains nearly stationary during
the next several days.  However, locally heavy rainfall can be
expected across portions of the Florida peninsula through the
weekend and into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 251712
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated area of low pressure extends from the eastern Gulf of
Mexico eastward across the Florida peninsula and into the adjacent
Atlantic waters.  Upper-level winds are forecast to be only
marginally conducive for this system to acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics while it remains nearly stationary during
the next several days.  However, locally heavy rainfall can be
expected across portions of the Florida peninsula through the
weekend and into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251556
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUL 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA
WITH AXIS ALONG 88W N OF 07N TO INLAND EASTERN EL SALVADOR AND
HONDURAS. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE AS IT REMAINS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG NLY FLOW ALOFT.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 98W N OF 07N...MOVING W NEAR 15
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE
WAVE...EXCEPT WITHIN 120 NM W OF WAVE FROM 13N TO 15N. THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING RATHER QUICKLY UNDER
STRONG NE FLOW ALOFT.

A TROPICAL WAVE AFFECTING A RATHER BROAD AREA IN TERMS OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND THE TYPICAL NE TO SE SHIFT IN SURFACE
WIND DIRECTION...SIMILAR TO THAT SEEN WITH ATLANTIC BASIN
WAVES...HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR 18N116W TO 10N119W. THE
OBSERVED CONVECTION IS OF THE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TYPE
INTENSITY OCCURRING FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN 115W-122W. THE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING THAT IT LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO WELL DEFINED MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N100W TO 10N111W TO 08N123W TO 12N134W
TO BEYOND 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W-113W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 117W-119W...ALSO BETWEEN 121W-125W AND WITHIN 180
NM OF AXIS W OF 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW FELICIA IS CENTERED NEAR 24N122W AS OF 15 UTC
WITH PRES OF 1010 MB MOVING W-NW AT 10 KT. THE LOW HAS BEEN
REDUCED TO A 300 DEG WIDE SWIRL OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
ESTIMATED WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT. THE
LOW WILL BE STEERED NW BY THE FLOW TO THE SW OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TURN W AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH
IN LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW BY 42 HOURS.

A STRONG RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS MAINLY N
OF 25N W OF THE REMNANT LOW OF FELICIA. FURTHER S...THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ITCZ HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA FROM
12N-16N W OF ABOUT 127W.. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO
EXPAND SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS THERE ARE TO 8 FT
IN NE WIND WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL. A NEW PULSE OF SW
SWELLS WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN WATERS BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SUN BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING BUILDING OVER THE SW UNITED
STATES...AND AS THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM
THE MEXICAN COAST. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN LATE SUN NIGHT...WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT N OF 28N WITHIN 90 NM OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST IN MIXED SW AND W SWELL N OF 28N AND WITHIN 180
NM OF THE COAST MON.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SOUTHERLY DISPLACED RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N
ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO IS INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
IT AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. NE WINDS
OF 20-25 KT ARE CURRENTLY BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF WITH SEAS TO
9 FT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY THIS EVENING
...THEN PULSE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN
MORNING ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
15-20 KT MON AFTERNOON.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251556
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUL 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA
WITH AXIS ALONG 88W N OF 07N TO INLAND EASTERN EL SALVADOR AND
HONDURAS. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE AS IT REMAINS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG NLY FLOW ALOFT.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 98W N OF 07N...MOVING W NEAR 15
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE
WAVE...EXCEPT WITHIN 120 NM W OF WAVE FROM 13N TO 15N. THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING RATHER QUICKLY UNDER
STRONG NE FLOW ALOFT.

A TROPICAL WAVE AFFECTING A RATHER BROAD AREA IN TERMS OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND THE TYPICAL NE TO SE SHIFT IN SURFACE
WIND DIRECTION...SIMILAR TO THAT SEEN WITH ATLANTIC BASIN
WAVES...HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR 18N116W TO 10N119W. THE
OBSERVED CONVECTION IS OF THE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TYPE
INTENSITY OCCURRING FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN 115W-122W. THE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING THAT IT LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO WELL DEFINED MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N100W TO 10N111W TO 08N123W TO 12N134W
TO BEYOND 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W-113W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 117W-119W...ALSO BETWEEN 121W-125W AND WITHIN 180
NM OF AXIS W OF 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW FELICIA IS CENTERED NEAR 24N122W AS OF 15 UTC
WITH PRES OF 1010 MB MOVING W-NW AT 10 KT. THE LOW HAS BEEN
REDUCED TO A 300 DEG WIDE SWIRL OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
ESTIMATED WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT. THE
LOW WILL BE STEERED NW BY THE FLOW TO THE SW OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TURN W AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH
IN LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW BY 42 HOURS.

A STRONG RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS MAINLY N
OF 25N W OF THE REMNANT LOW OF FELICIA. FURTHER S...THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ITCZ HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA FROM
12N-16N W OF ABOUT 127W.. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO
EXPAND SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS THERE ARE TO 8 FT
IN NE WIND WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL. A NEW PULSE OF SW
SWELLS WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN WATERS BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SUN BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING BUILDING OVER THE SW UNITED
STATES...AND AS THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM
THE MEXICAN COAST. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN LATE SUN NIGHT...WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT N OF 28N WITHIN 90 NM OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST IN MIXED SW AND W SWELL N OF 28N AND WITHIN 180
NM OF THE COAST MON.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SOUTHERLY DISPLACED RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N
ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO IS INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
IT AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. NE WINDS
OF 20-25 KT ARE CURRENTLY BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF WITH SEAS TO
9 FT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY THIS EVENING
...THEN PULSE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN
MORNING ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
15-20 KT MON AFTERNOON.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251556
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUL 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA
WITH AXIS ALONG 88W N OF 07N TO INLAND EASTERN EL SALVADOR AND
HONDURAS. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE AS IT REMAINS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG NLY FLOW ALOFT.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 98W N OF 07N...MOVING W NEAR 15
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE
WAVE...EXCEPT WITHIN 120 NM W OF WAVE FROM 13N TO 15N. THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING RATHER QUICKLY UNDER
STRONG NE FLOW ALOFT.

A TROPICAL WAVE AFFECTING A RATHER BROAD AREA IN TERMS OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND THE TYPICAL NE TO SE SHIFT IN SURFACE
WIND DIRECTION...SIMILAR TO THAT SEEN WITH ATLANTIC BASIN
WAVES...HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR 18N116W TO 10N119W. THE
OBSERVED CONVECTION IS OF THE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TYPE
INTENSITY OCCURRING FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN 115W-122W. THE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING THAT IT LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO WELL DEFINED MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N100W TO 10N111W TO 08N123W TO 12N134W
TO BEYOND 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W-113W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 117W-119W...ALSO BETWEEN 121W-125W AND WITHIN 180
NM OF AXIS W OF 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW FELICIA IS CENTERED NEAR 24N122W AS OF 15 UTC
WITH PRES OF 1010 MB MOVING W-NW AT 10 KT. THE LOW HAS BEEN
REDUCED TO A 300 DEG WIDE SWIRL OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
ESTIMATED WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT. THE
LOW WILL BE STEERED NW BY THE FLOW TO THE SW OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TURN W AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH
IN LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW BY 42 HOURS.

A STRONG RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS MAINLY N
OF 25N W OF THE REMNANT LOW OF FELICIA. FURTHER S...THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ITCZ HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA FROM
12N-16N W OF ABOUT 127W.. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO
EXPAND SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS THERE ARE TO 8 FT
IN NE WIND WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL. A NEW PULSE OF SW
SWELLS WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN WATERS BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SUN BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING BUILDING OVER THE SW UNITED
STATES...AND AS THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM
THE MEXICAN COAST. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN LATE SUN NIGHT...WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT N OF 28N WITHIN 90 NM OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST IN MIXED SW AND W SWELL N OF 28N AND WITHIN 180
NM OF THE COAST MON.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SOUTHERLY DISPLACED RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N
ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO IS INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
IT AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. NE WINDS
OF 20-25 KT ARE CURRENTLY BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF WITH SEAS TO
9 FT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY THIS EVENING
...THEN PULSE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN
MORNING ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
15-20 KT MON AFTERNOON.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251556
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUL 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA
WITH AXIS ALONG 88W N OF 07N TO INLAND EASTERN EL SALVADOR AND
HONDURAS. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE AS IT REMAINS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG NLY FLOW ALOFT.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 98W N OF 07N...MOVING W NEAR 15
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE
WAVE...EXCEPT WITHIN 120 NM W OF WAVE FROM 13N TO 15N. THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING RATHER QUICKLY UNDER
STRONG NE FLOW ALOFT.

A TROPICAL WAVE AFFECTING A RATHER BROAD AREA IN TERMS OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND THE TYPICAL NE TO SE SHIFT IN SURFACE
WIND DIRECTION...SIMILAR TO THAT SEEN WITH ATLANTIC BASIN
WAVES...HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR 18N116W TO 10N119W. THE
OBSERVED CONVECTION IS OF THE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TYPE
INTENSITY OCCURRING FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN 115W-122W. THE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING THAT IT LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO WELL DEFINED MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N100W TO 10N111W TO 08N123W TO 12N134W
TO BEYOND 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W-113W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 117W-119W...ALSO BETWEEN 121W-125W AND WITHIN 180
NM OF AXIS W OF 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW FELICIA IS CENTERED NEAR 24N122W AS OF 15 UTC
WITH PRES OF 1010 MB MOVING W-NW AT 10 KT. THE LOW HAS BEEN
REDUCED TO A 300 DEG WIDE SWIRL OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
ESTIMATED WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT. THE
LOW WILL BE STEERED NW BY THE FLOW TO THE SW OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TURN W AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH
IN LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW BY 42 HOURS.

A STRONG RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS MAINLY N
OF 25N W OF THE REMNANT LOW OF FELICIA. FURTHER S...THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ITCZ HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA FROM
12N-16N W OF ABOUT 127W.. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO
EXPAND SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS THERE ARE TO 8 FT
IN NE WIND WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL. A NEW PULSE OF SW
SWELLS WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN WATERS BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SUN BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING BUILDING OVER THE SW UNITED
STATES...AND AS THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM
THE MEXICAN COAST. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN LATE SUN NIGHT...WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT N OF 28N WITHIN 90 NM OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST IN MIXED SW AND W SWELL N OF 28N AND WITHIN 180
NM OF THE COAST MON.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SOUTHERLY DISPLACED RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N
ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO IS INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
IT AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. NE WINDS
OF 20-25 KT ARE CURRENTLY BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF WITH SEAS TO
9 FT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY THIS EVENING
...THEN PULSE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN
MORNING ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
15-20 KT MON AFTERNOON.

$$
AGUIRRE



000
ACPN50 PHFO 251157
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SAT JUL 25 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 1300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES WEST AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.


$$

GIBBS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 251157
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SAT JUL 25 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 1300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES WEST AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.


$$

GIBBS





000
ACPN50 PHFO 251157
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SAT JUL 25 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 1300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES WEST AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.


$$

GIBBS





000
ACPN50 PHFO 251157
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SAT JUL 25 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 1300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES WEST AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.


$$

GIBBS





000
ACPN50 PHFO 251157
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SAT JUL 25 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 1300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES WEST AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.


$$

GIBBS





000
ACPN50 PHFO 251157
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SAT JUL 25 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 1300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES WEST AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.


$$

GIBBS





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 251147
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT SABADO 25 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA NO TROPICAL DE BAJA PRESION PODRIA FORMARSE A LO LARGO DE
UNA ZONA FRONTAL TEMPRANO EN LA PROXIMA SEMANA ENTRE LA COSTA DEL
SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS Y LA ISLA DE BERMUDA. LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES SE ESPERAN ESTAR SOLO MARGINALMETE CONDUCIVAS PARA QUE
ESTE SISTEMA ADQUIERA CARACTERISTICAS SUB TROPICALES O TROPICALES
MIENTRAS SE DESPLAZE HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE U NORESTE.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS CINCO
 DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 251147
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT SABADO 25 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA NO TROPICAL DE BAJA PRESION PODRIA FORMARSE A LO LARGO DE
UNA ZONA FRONTAL TEMPRANO EN LA PROXIMA SEMANA ENTRE LA COSTA DEL
SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS Y LA ISLA DE BERMUDA. LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES SE ESPERAN ESTAR SOLO MARGINALMETE CONDUCIVAS PARA QUE
ESTE SISTEMA ADQUIERA CARACTERISTICAS SUB TROPICALES O TROPICALES
MIENTRAS SE DESPLAZE HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE U NORESTE.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS CINCO
 DIAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251140
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure more than a thousand miles south-southwest
of the Baja California peninsula is associated with a tropical wave.
Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical
depression could form by middle of next week as the low moves
westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Another area of low pressure could form early next week well
to the south-southwest of the Baja California peninsula.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow
development of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251140
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure more than a thousand miles south-southwest
of the Baja California peninsula is associated with a tropical wave.
Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical
depression could form by middle of next week as the low moves
westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Another area of low pressure could form early next week well
to the south-southwest of the Baja California peninsula.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow
development of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
ABNT20 KNHC 251134
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a frontal
boundary early next week between the southeast United States coast
and Bermuda.  Environmental conditions are expected to be only
marginally conducive for this system to acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics while it moves east-northeastward or
northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
ABNT20 KNHC 251134
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a frontal
boundary early next week between the southeast United States coast
and Bermuda.  Environmental conditions are expected to be only
marginally conducive for this system to acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics while it moves east-northeastward or
northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABNT20 KNHC 251134
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a frontal
boundary early next week between the southeast United States coast
and Bermuda.  Environmental conditions are expected to be only
marginally conducive for this system to acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics while it moves east-northeastward or
northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
ABNT20 KNHC 251134
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a frontal
boundary early next week between the southeast United States coast
and Bermuda.  Environmental conditions are expected to be only
marginally conducive for this system to acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics while it moves east-northeastward or
northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
AXNT20 KNHC 251054
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N56W 12N58W 07N60W...
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 59W AND
62W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...PLEASE READ THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE PRECIPITATION. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS NEAR THE WAVES MAY BE
MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W/96W FROM 17N IN THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE EARLIER SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG THAT WAS IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS
MOVED OFFSHORE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...FROM 12N TO 15N
BETWEEN 96W AND 100W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N15W AT THE COAST OF MAURITANIA...TO
17N23W IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 15N28W. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N23W TO 08N34W TO 05N38W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 05N38W TO 04N44W TO 03N48W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO
11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 34W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO NEAR 24N100W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS GEORGIA
AND ALABAMA...AND FLORIDA...INCLUDING IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA AND TO THE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THE MAIN
TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW PASSES THROUGH
33N78W TO 30N81W. TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ARE IN NORTHERN FLORIDA. A
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IN THE BAROMETRIC PRESSURE PATTERN
CONTINUES FROM FLORIDA INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N69W
TO 31N74W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N74W INTO
SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL GEORGIA...AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND
CENTRAL ALABAMA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 32N70W TO 23N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE 32N60W TO 23N80W LINE. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/0000 UTC...ACCORDING
TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.67 IN BERMUDA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WIDELY MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 81W AND 87W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...ALONG
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST OF CUBA THAT IS ALONG 80W...INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N98W.

PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
95W/96W TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 21N78W AT THE COAST OF CUBA...TO 15N83W AT THE
EASTERN PART OF HONDURAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS FORMED NEAR 19N80W TO THE NORTHWEST OF
JAMAICA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IS IN SOUTHEASTERN GUATEMALA.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND 80W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO.

THE MARINE FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS....CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS...
AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 11 FEET...FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 74W AND 76W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ADDITIONAL AREAS
OF WIND ARE...ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 71W AND 81W
NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING
FROM 8 FEET TO 9 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN 82W AND
83W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
25/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.18 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FOR HISPANIOLA...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN
HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING
OBSERVED FROM SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A PART OF A
RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WITH A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY CUTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TOWARD
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT A RIDGE WILL CUT ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW. TWO
INVERTED TROUGHS PASS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...FROM THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD INTO AND INCLUDING THE 36-HOUR TIME PERIOD...
UNTIL THE END OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 26N51W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 300 NM TO
THE EAST...AND WITHIN 500 NM TO THE WEST...OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 33N48W...TO 26N51W...TO 20N54W...TO 16N59W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 22N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 47W AND THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 32N60W TO 32N70W TO
23N80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 23N34W TO
12N33W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N TO 24N
BETWEEN 25W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N36W TO 30N44W...TO 23N59W...TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND EVENTUALLY BEYOND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO
THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR NEAR 23N98W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 251054
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N56W 12N58W 07N60W...
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 59W AND
62W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...PLEASE READ THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE PRECIPITATION. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS NEAR THE WAVES MAY BE
MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W/96W FROM 17N IN THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE EARLIER SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG THAT WAS IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS
MOVED OFFSHORE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...FROM 12N TO 15N
BETWEEN 96W AND 100W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N15W AT THE COAST OF MAURITANIA...TO
17N23W IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 15N28W. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N23W TO 08N34W TO 05N38W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 05N38W TO 04N44W TO 03N48W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO
11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 34W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO NEAR 24N100W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS GEORGIA
AND ALABAMA...AND FLORIDA...INCLUDING IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA AND TO THE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THE MAIN
TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW PASSES THROUGH
33N78W TO 30N81W. TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ARE IN NORTHERN FLORIDA. A
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IN THE BAROMETRIC PRESSURE PATTERN
CONTINUES FROM FLORIDA INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N69W
TO 31N74W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N74W INTO
SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL GEORGIA...AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND
CENTRAL ALABAMA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 32N70W TO 23N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE 32N60W TO 23N80W LINE. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/0000 UTC...ACCORDING
TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.67 IN BERMUDA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WIDELY MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 81W AND 87W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...ALONG
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST OF CUBA THAT IS ALONG 80W...INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N98W.

PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
95W/96W TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 21N78W AT THE COAST OF CUBA...TO 15N83W AT THE
EASTERN PART OF HONDURAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS FORMED NEAR 19N80W TO THE NORTHWEST OF
JAMAICA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IS IN SOUTHEASTERN GUATEMALA.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND 80W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO.

THE MARINE FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS....CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS...
AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 11 FEET...FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 74W AND 76W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ADDITIONAL AREAS
OF WIND ARE...ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 71W AND 81W
NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING
FROM 8 FEET TO 9 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN 82W AND
83W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
25/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.18 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FOR HISPANIOLA...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN
HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING
OBSERVED FROM SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A PART OF A
RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WITH A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY CUTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TOWARD
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT A RIDGE WILL CUT ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW. TWO
INVERTED TROUGHS PASS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...FROM THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD INTO AND INCLUDING THE 36-HOUR TIME PERIOD...
UNTIL THE END OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 26N51W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 300 NM TO
THE EAST...AND WITHIN 500 NM TO THE WEST...OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 33N48W...TO 26N51W...TO 20N54W...TO 16N59W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 22N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 47W AND THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 32N60W TO 32N70W TO
23N80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 23N34W TO
12N33W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N TO 24N
BETWEEN 25W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N36W TO 30N44W...TO 23N59W...TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND EVENTUALLY BEYOND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO
THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR NEAR 23N98W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 251008
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT SABADO 25 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA NO TROPICAL DE BAJA PRESION PODRIA FORMARSE TEMPRANO EN LA
PROXIMA SEMANA ENTRE LA COSTA DE LA PARTE SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS Y LA ISLA DE BERMUDA. ESTA BAJA PRESION PODRIA ADQUIRIR
GRADUALMENTE CARACTERISTICAS SUB TROPICALES O TROPICALES MIENTRAS SE
DESPLAZE HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE U NORESTE.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS CINCO
 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR CANGIALOSI



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 251008
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT SABADO 25 DE JULIO DE 2015

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA NO TROPICAL DE BAJA PRESION PODRIA FORMARSE TEMPRANO EN LA
PROXIMA SEMANA ENTRE LA COSTA DE LA PARTE SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS Y LA ISLA DE BERMUDA. ESTA BAJA PRESION PODRIA ADQUIRIR
GRADUALMENTE CARACTERISTICAS SUB TROPICALES O TROPICALES MIENTRAS SE
DESPLAZE HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE U NORESTE.

*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
 HORAS...BAJA...CERCA DE 0 POR CIENTO.
*PROBABILIDAD DE FORMACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS CINCO
 DIAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR CANGIALOSI


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250927
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JUL 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG ABOUT 86W AND WAS EXITING CENTRAL
AMERICA...MOVING W 10-15 KT. DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE WAS FOUND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTERIOR NEAR THE
BORDER OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR...AND ALSO TRAILED THE WAVE
ACROSS INTERIOR NICARAGUA AND SE HONDURAS.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS INVOF 97W/98W...MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE THE WAVE...FROM 09N-17N BETWEEN 96W AND 100W...
WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

A COMPLEX TROPICAL WAVE SPANNED THE AREA FROM 114W TO 118W AND
WAS INITIATING A BROAD AREA OF WEATHER AS IT MOVED W 15-20 KT.
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS
NOTED FROM 04N-13N BETWEEN 107W AND 122W. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THIS WAVE MORE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED INTO A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT CONTINUES
WESTWARD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO WELL DEFINED MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N90W TO 11N109W...WHERE IT BREAKS...
THEN RESUMES FROM 09N117W TO 07.5N122W TO 12N134W TO BEYOND
11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN
150 NM N AND 300 NM S OF AXIS W OF 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE CENTER OF REMNANT LOW FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 120.8W
1009 MB MOVING W-NW AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 20 TO
25 KT AND WERE CONFINED WITH WITHIN 180 NM OF THE NORTH
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION WAS NOTED
NEAR OR SURROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE CENTER...AND THE LOW IS
NOT EXPECTED TO REGENERATE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...OR
INCREASING WINDS. THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA SHOULD BE STEERED NW
BY THE FLOW TO THE SW OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT THEN TURN W AND DISSIPATE INTO THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW BY 48 HOURS. SEE THE FINAL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A STRONG RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE N WATERS MAINLY N OF 25N W
OF FELICIA. FURTHER SOUTH...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ HAS BROUGHT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA FROM 11N-21N W OF
125W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO EXPAND SLIGHTLY OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS THERE ARE TO 8 FT IN NE WIND WAVES AND
MIXED SE AND SW SWELL. A NEW PULSE OF SW SWELL WILL PUSH INTO
THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS TODAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE
AREA DOWNWIND OF THE STRONGEST TRADES.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SUN BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING BUILDING OVER THE SW UNITED
STATES...AND AS THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM
THE MEXICAN COAST. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN AGAIN BY LATE SUN...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 FT IN MIXED SW AND W SWELL N OF 28N.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SOUTHERLY DISPLACED RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N
ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO IS INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN IT AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.
NE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BLOWING 20-25 KT WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 10
FT...BUT WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
PULSING AGAIN TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE
GULF.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250927
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JUL 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG ABOUT 86W AND WAS EXITING CENTRAL
AMERICA...MOVING W 10-15 KT. DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE WAS FOUND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTERIOR NEAR THE
BORDER OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR...AND ALSO TRAILED THE WAVE
ACROSS INTERIOR NICARAGUA AND SE HONDURAS.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS INVOF 97W/98W...MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE THE WAVE...FROM 09N-17N BETWEEN 96W AND 100W...
WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

A COMPLEX TROPICAL WAVE SPANNED THE AREA FROM 114W TO 118W AND
WAS INITIATING A BROAD AREA OF WEATHER AS IT MOVED W 15-20 KT.
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS
NOTED FROM 04N-13N BETWEEN 107W AND 122W. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THIS WAVE MORE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED INTO A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT CONTINUES
WESTWARD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO WELL DEFINED MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N90W TO 11N109W...WHERE IT BREAKS...
THEN RESUMES FROM 09N117W TO 07.5N122W TO 12N134W TO BEYOND
11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN
150 NM N AND 300 NM S OF AXIS W OF 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE CENTER OF REMNANT LOW FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 120.8W
1009 MB MOVING W-NW AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 20 TO
25 KT AND WERE CONFINED WITH WITHIN 180 NM OF THE NORTH
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION WAS NOTED
NEAR OR SURROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE CENTER...AND THE LOW IS
NOT EXPECTED TO REGENERATE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...OR
INCREASING WINDS. THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA SHOULD BE STEERED NW
BY THE FLOW TO THE SW OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT THEN TURN W AND DISSIPATE INTO THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW BY 48 HOURS. SEE THE FINAL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A STRONG RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE N WATERS MAINLY N OF 25N W
OF FELICIA. FURTHER SOUTH...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ HAS BROUGHT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA FROM 11N-21N W OF
125W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO EXPAND SLIGHTLY OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS THERE ARE TO 8 FT IN NE WIND WAVES AND
MIXED SE AND SW SWELL. A NEW PULSE OF SW SWELL WILL PUSH INTO
THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS TODAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE
AREA DOWNWIND OF THE STRONGEST TRADES.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SUN BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING BUILDING OVER THE SW UNITED
STATES...AND AS THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM
THE MEXICAN COAST. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN AGAIN BY LATE SUN...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 FT IN MIXED SW AND W SWELL N OF 28N.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SOUTHERLY DISPLACED RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N
ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO IS INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN IT AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.
NE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BLOWING 20-25 KT WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 10
FT...BUT WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
PULSING AGAIN TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE
GULF.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXNT20 KNHC 250558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N55W 10N58W 06N59W...
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...PLEASE READ THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE PRECIPITATION. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS NEAR THE WAVES MAY BE
MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W/94W FROM 16N IN THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG IS IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BETWEEN 93W AND 96W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N23W TO 09N30W TO 08N40W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 08N40W TO 05N51W TO 08N56W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 16W AND
21W...AND FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND 33W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO NEAR 24N100W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS GEORGIA
AND ALABAMA...RELATED TO A TROUGH THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. A SEPARATE BRANCH OF A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N73W TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N72W TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N78W TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO 28N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT
IS ALONG 32N78W TO 31N81W IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...BEYOND
CENTRAL ALABAMA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 23N80W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.67 IN BERMUDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO
28N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS FROM 90W EASTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...ALONG
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST OF CUBA THAT IS ALONG 80W...INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N91W.

PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
93W/94W TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 21N78W AT THE COAST OF CUBA...TO 15N83W AT THE
EASTERN PART OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OFF THE COAST OF CUBA WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 79W FROM 20N TO 21N. NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN
SOUTHEASTERN GUATEMALA.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND 80W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO.

THE MARINE FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 13.5N
BETWEEN 73W AND 76W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA CONSISTS OF
NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10
FEET. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF WIND ARE...ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N
BETWEEN 71W AND 78W NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
24/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.18 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FOR HISPANIOLA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED
IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A PART OF A
RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WITH A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY CUTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TOWARD
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT A RIDGE WILL CUT ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW. TWO
INVERTED TROUGHS PASS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...FROM THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD INTO AND INCLUDING THE 36-HOUR TIME PERIOD...
UNTIL THE END OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 26N51W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 300 NM TO
THE EAST...AND WITHIN 500 NM TO THE WEST...OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 33N48W...TO 26N51W...TO 20N54W...TO 16N59W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 47W AND THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 32N63W TO
23N80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 23N34W TO
12N33W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N TO 24N
BETWEEN 25W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N35W TO 28N46W...TO 23N60W...TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N91W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 250558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N55W 10N58W 06N59W...
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...PLEASE READ THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE PRECIPITATION. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS NEAR THE WAVES MAY BE
MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W/94W FROM 16N IN THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG IS IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BETWEEN 93W AND 96W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N23W TO 09N30W TO 08N40W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 08N40W TO 05N51W TO 08N56W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 16W AND
21W...AND FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND 33W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO NEAR 24N100W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS GEORGIA
AND ALABAMA...RELATED TO A TROUGH THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. A SEPARATE BRANCH OF A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N73W TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N72W TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N78W TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO 28N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT
IS ALONG 32N78W TO 31N81W IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...BEYOND
CENTRAL ALABAMA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 23N80W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.67 IN BERMUDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO
28N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS FROM 90W EASTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...ALONG
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST OF CUBA THAT IS ALONG 80W...INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N91W.

PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
93W/94W TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 21N78W AT THE COAST OF CUBA...TO 15N83W AT THE
EASTERN PART OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OFF THE COAST OF CUBA WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 79W FROM 20N TO 21N. NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN
SOUTHEASTERN GUATEMALA.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND 80W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO.

THE MARINE FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 13.5N
BETWEEN 73W AND 76W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA CONSISTS OF
NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10
FEET. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF WIND ARE...ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N
BETWEEN 71W AND 78W NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
24/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.18 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FOR HISPANIOLA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED
IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A PART OF A
RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WITH A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY CUTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TOWARD
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT A RIDGE WILL CUT ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW. TWO
INVERTED TROUGHS PASS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...FROM THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD INTO AND INCLUDING THE 36-HOUR TIME PERIOD...
UNTIL THE END OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 26N51W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 300 NM TO
THE EAST...AND WITHIN 500 NM TO THE WEST...OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 33N48W...TO 26N51W...TO 20N54W...TO 16N59W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 47W AND THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 32N63W TO
23N80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 23N34W TO
12N33W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N TO 24N
BETWEEN 25W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N35W TO 28N46W...TO 23N60W...TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N91W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 250558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N55W 10N58W 06N59W...
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...PLEASE READ THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE PRECIPITATION. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS NEAR THE WAVES MAY BE
MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W/94W FROM 16N IN THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG IS IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BETWEEN 93W AND 96W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N23W TO 09N30W TO 08N40W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 08N40W TO 05N51W TO 08N56W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 16W AND
21W...AND FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND 33W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO NEAR 24N100W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS GEORGIA
AND ALABAMA...RELATED TO A TROUGH THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. A SEPARATE BRANCH OF A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N73W TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N72W TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N78W TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO 28N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT
IS ALONG 32N78W TO 31N81W IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...BEYOND
CENTRAL ALABAMA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 23N80W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.67 IN BERMUDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO
28N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS FROM 90W EASTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...ALONG
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST OF CUBA THAT IS ALONG 80W...INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N91W.

PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
93W/94W TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 21N78W AT THE COAST OF CUBA...TO 15N83W AT THE
EASTERN PART OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OFF THE COAST OF CUBA WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 79W FROM 20N TO 21N. NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN
SOUTHEASTERN GUATEMALA.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND 80W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO.

THE MARINE FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 13.5N
BETWEEN 73W AND 76W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA CONSISTS OF
NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10
FEET. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF WIND ARE...ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N
BETWEEN 71W AND 78W NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
24/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.18 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FOR HISPANIOLA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED
IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A PART OF A
RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WITH A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY CUTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TOWARD
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT A RIDGE WILL CUT ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW. TWO
INVERTED TROUGHS PASS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...FROM THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD INTO AND INCLUDING THE 36-HOUR TIME PERIOD...
UNTIL THE END OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 26N51W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 300 NM TO
THE EAST...AND WITHIN 500 NM TO THE WEST...OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 33N48W...TO 26N51W...TO 20N54W...TO 16N59W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 47W AND THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 32N63W TO
23N80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 23N34W TO
12N33W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N TO 24N
BETWEEN 25W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N35W TO 28N46W...TO 23N60W...TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N91W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 250558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N55W 10N58W 06N59W...
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...PLEASE READ THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE PRECIPITATION. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS NEAR THE WAVES MAY BE
MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W/94W FROM 16N IN THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG IS IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BETWEEN 93W AND 96W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N23W TO 09N30W TO 08N40W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 08N40W TO 05N51W TO 08N56W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 16W AND
21W...AND FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND 33W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO NEAR 24N100W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS GEORGIA
AND ALABAMA...RELATED TO A TROUGH THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. A SEPARATE BRANCH OF A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N73W TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N72W TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N78W TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO 28N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT
IS ALONG 32N78W TO 31N81W IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...BEYOND
CENTRAL ALABAMA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 23N80W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.67 IN BERMUDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO
28N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS FROM 90W EASTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...ALONG
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST OF CUBA THAT IS ALONG 80W...INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N91W.

PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
93W/94W TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 21N78W AT THE COAST OF CUBA...TO 15N83W AT THE
EASTERN PART OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OFF THE COAST OF CUBA WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 79W FROM 20N TO 21N. NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN
SOUTHEASTERN GUATEMALA.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND 80W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO.

THE MARINE FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 13.5N
BETWEEN 73W AND 76W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA CONSISTS OF
NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10
FEET. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF WIND ARE...ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N
BETWEEN 71W AND 78W NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
24/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.18 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FOR HISPANIOLA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED
IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A PART OF A
RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WITH A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY CUTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TOWARD
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT A RIDGE WILL CUT ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW. TWO
INVERTED TROUGHS PASS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...FROM THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD INTO AND INCLUDING THE 36-HOUR TIME PERIOD...
UNTIL THE END OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 26N51W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 300 NM TO
THE EAST...AND WITHIN 500 NM TO THE WEST...OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 33N48W...TO 26N51W...TO 20N54W...TO 16N59W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 47W AND THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 32N63W TO
23N80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 23N34W TO
12N33W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N TO 24N
BETWEEN 25W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N35W TO 28N46W...TO 23N60W...TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N91W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 250558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N55W 10N58W 06N59W...
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...PLEASE READ THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE PRECIPITATION. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS NEAR THE WAVES MAY BE
MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W/94W FROM 16N IN THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG IS IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BETWEEN 93W AND 96W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N23W TO 09N30W TO 08N40W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 08N40W TO 05N51W TO 08N56W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 16W AND
21W...AND FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND 33W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO NEAR 24N100W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS GEORGIA
AND ALABAMA...RELATED TO A TROUGH THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. A SEPARATE BRANCH OF A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N73W TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N72W TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N78W TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO 28N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT
IS ALONG 32N78W TO 31N81W IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...BEYOND
CENTRAL ALABAMA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 23N80W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.67 IN BERMUDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO
28N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS FROM 90W EASTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...ALONG
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST OF CUBA THAT IS ALONG 80W...INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N91W.

PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
93W/94W TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 21N78W AT THE COAST OF CUBA...TO 15N83W AT THE
EASTERN PART OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OFF THE COAST OF CUBA WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 79W FROM 20N TO 21N. NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN
SOUTHEASTERN GUATEMALA.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND 80W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO.

THE MARINE FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 13.5N
BETWEEN 73W AND 76W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA CONSISTS OF
NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10
FEET. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF WIND ARE...ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N
BETWEEN 71W AND 78W NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
24/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.18 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FOR HISPANIOLA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED
IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A PART OF A
RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WITH A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY CUTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TOWARD
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT A RIDGE WILL CUT ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW. TWO
INVERTED TROUGHS PASS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...FROM THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD INTO AND INCLUDING THE 36-HOUR TIME PERIOD...
UNTIL THE END OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 26N51W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 300 NM TO
THE EAST...AND WITHIN 500 NM TO THE WEST...OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 33N48W...TO 26N51W...TO 20N54W...TO 16N59W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 47W AND THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 32N63W TO
23N80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 23N34W TO
12N33W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N TO 24N
BETWEEN 25W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N35W TO 28N46W...TO 23N60W...TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N91W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 250558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N55W 10N58W 06N59W...
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...PLEASE READ THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE PRECIPITATION. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS NEAR THE WAVES MAY BE
MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W/94W FROM 16N IN THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG IS IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BETWEEN 93W AND 96W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N23W TO 09N30W TO 08N40W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 08N40W TO 05N51W TO 08N56W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 16W AND
21W...AND FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND 33W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO NEAR 24N100W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS GEORGIA
AND ALABAMA...RELATED TO A TROUGH THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. A SEPARATE BRANCH OF A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N73W TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N72W TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N78W TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO 28N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT
IS ALONG 32N78W TO 31N81W IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...BEYOND
CENTRAL ALABAMA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 23N80W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.67 IN BERMUDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO
28N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS FROM 90W EASTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...ALONG
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST OF CUBA THAT IS ALONG 80W...INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N91W.

PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
93W/94W TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 21N78W AT THE COAST OF CUBA...TO 15N83W AT THE
EASTERN PART OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OFF THE COAST OF CUBA WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 79W FROM 20N TO 21N. NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN
SOUTHEASTERN GUATEMALA.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND 80W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO.

THE MARINE FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 13.5N
BETWEEN 73W AND 76W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA CONSISTS OF
NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10
FEET. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF WIND ARE...ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N
BETWEEN 71W AND 78W NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
24/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.18 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FOR HISPANIOLA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED
IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A PART OF A
RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WITH A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY CUTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TOWARD
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT A RIDGE WILL CUT ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW. TWO
INVERTED TROUGHS PASS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...FROM THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD INTO AND INCLUDING THE 36-HOUR TIME PERIOD...
UNTIL THE END OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 26N51W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 300 NM TO
THE EAST...AND WITHIN 500 NM TO THE WEST...OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 33N48W...TO 26N51W...TO 20N54W...TO 16N59W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 47W AND THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 32N63W TO
23N80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 23N34W TO
12N33W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N TO 24N
BETWEEN 25W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N35W TO 28N46W...TO 23N60W...TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N91W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
ACPN50 PHFO 250556 CCA
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI JUL 24 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 1300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES WEST AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.


$$

GIBBS







000
ACPN50 PHFO 250556 CCA
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI JUL 24 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 1300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES WEST AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.


$$

GIBBS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 250556 CCA
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI JUL 24 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 1300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES WEST AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.


$$

GIBBS







000
ACPN50 PHFO 250556 CCA
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI JUL 24 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 1300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES WEST AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.


$$

GIBBS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 250545
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI JUL 24 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 1300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES WEST AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.


$$

GIBBS





000
ACPN50 PHFO 250545
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI JUL 24 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 1300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES WEST AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.


$$

GIBBS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 250545
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI JUL 24 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 1300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES WEST AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.


$$

GIBBS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 250545
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI JUL 24 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 1300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES WEST AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.


$$

GIBBS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 250545
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI JUL 24 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 1300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES WEST AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.


$$

GIBBS






000
ACPN50 PHFO 250545
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI JUL 24 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 1300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

2. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES WEST AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.


$$

GIBBS






000
ABPZ20 KNHC 250501
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI JUL 24 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Felicia, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the west-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula by
early next week.  Gradual development of this system is possible
after that time while it moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 250501
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI JUL 24 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Felicia, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the west-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula by
early next week.  Gradual development of this system is possible
after that time while it moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
ABNT20 KNHC 250500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical area of low pressure could form early next week
between the southeast United States coast and Bermuda.  This low
could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics
while it moves east-northeastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
ABNT20 KNHC 250500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical area of low pressure could form early next week
between the southeast United States coast and Bermuda.  This low
could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics
while it moves east-northeastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
ABNT20 KNHC 250500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical area of low pressure could form early next week
between the southeast United States coast and Bermuda.  This low
could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics
while it moves east-northeastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
ABNT20 KNHC 250500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical area of low pressure could form early next week
between the southeast United States coast and Bermuda.  This low
could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics
while it moves east-northeastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi




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