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000
ABPZ30 KNHC 011429
TWSEP

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 1 2014

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

FOUR STORMS FORMED IN THE BASIN DURING AUGUST.  ALL FOUR BECAME
HURRICANES...AND TWO OF THOSE BECAME MAJOR HURRICANES.  IN
ADDITION...ISELLE...WHICH FORMED AT THE END OF JULY...ALSO BECAME
A MAJOR HURRICANE.  BASED ON A 30-YEAR (1981-2010) CLIMATOLOGY...
THREE OR FOUR NAMED STORMS FORM IN THE BASIN IN AUGUST...WITH TWO
BECOMING HURRICANES AND ONE OF THOSE REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE
INTENSITY.

IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...ACTIVITY
IN THE BASIN SO FAR IN 2014 HAS BEEN ABOUT 60 PERCENT ABOVE THE
1981-2010 AVERAGE VALUE.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/2014EPAC.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME                DATES         MAX WIND (MPH)
---------------------------------------------------
MH AMANDA          22-29 MAY           155
TS BORIS*            2-4 JUN            45
MH CRISTINA*        9-15 JUN           150
TS DOUGLAS      28 JUN-5 JUL            45
TS ELIDA*       30 JUN-2 JUL            50
TS FAUSTO            7-9 JUL            45
MH GENEVIEVE   25 JUL-13 AUG**         160
H  HERNAN          26-29 JUL            75
MH ISELLE       31 JUL-9 AUG**         140
MH JULIO            4-15 AUG**         115
H  KARINA          13-26 AUG            80
H  LOWELL          18-24 AUG            75
MH MARIE           22-29 AUG           160
---------------------------------------------------

*   DENOTES A STORM FOR WHICH THE POST-STORM ANALYSIS IS COMPLETE.
**  DATES INCLUDE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IN THE CENTRAL
    AND/OR WESTERN PACIFIC BASINS.

$$
HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT




000
ABPZ30 KNHC 011429
TWSEP

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 1 2014

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

FOUR STORMS FORMED IN THE BASIN DURING AUGUST.  ALL FOUR BECAME
HURRICANES...AND TWO OF THOSE BECAME MAJOR HURRICANES.  IN
ADDITION...ISELLE...WHICH FORMED AT THE END OF JULY...ALSO BECAME
A MAJOR HURRICANE.  BASED ON A 30-YEAR (1981-2010) CLIMATOLOGY...
THREE OR FOUR NAMED STORMS FORM IN THE BASIN IN AUGUST...WITH TWO
BECOMING HURRICANES AND ONE OF THOSE REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE
INTENSITY.

IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...ACTIVITY
IN THE BASIN SO FAR IN 2014 HAS BEEN ABOUT 60 PERCENT ABOVE THE
1981-2010 AVERAGE VALUE.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/2014EPAC.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME                DATES         MAX WIND (MPH)
---------------------------------------------------
MH AMANDA          22-29 MAY           155
TS BORIS*            2-4 JUN            45
MH CRISTINA*        9-15 JUN           150
TS DOUGLAS      28 JUN-5 JUL            45
TS ELIDA*       30 JUN-2 JUL            50
TS FAUSTO            7-9 JUL            45
MH GENEVIEVE   25 JUL-13 AUG**         160
H  HERNAN          26-29 JUL            75
MH ISELLE       31 JUL-9 AUG**         140
MH JULIO            4-15 AUG**         115
H  KARINA          13-26 AUG            80
H  LOWELL          18-24 AUG            75
MH MARIE           22-29 AUG           160
---------------------------------------------------

*   DENOTES A STORM FOR WHICH THE POST-STORM ANALYSIS IS COMPLETE.
**  DATES INCLUDE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IN THE CENTRAL
    AND/OR WESTERN PACIFIC BASINS.

$$
HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT




000
ABPZ30 KNHC 011429
TWSEP

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 1 2014

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

FOUR STORMS FORMED IN THE BASIN DURING AUGUST.  ALL FOUR BECAME
HURRICANES...AND TWO OF THOSE BECAME MAJOR HURRICANES.  IN
ADDITION...ISELLE...WHICH FORMED AT THE END OF JULY...ALSO BECAME
A MAJOR HURRICANE.  BASED ON A 30-YEAR (1981-2010) CLIMATOLOGY...
THREE OR FOUR NAMED STORMS FORM IN THE BASIN IN AUGUST...WITH TWO
BECOMING HURRICANES AND ONE OF THOSE REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE
INTENSITY.

IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...ACTIVITY
IN THE BASIN SO FAR IN 2014 HAS BEEN ABOUT 60 PERCENT ABOVE THE
1981-2010 AVERAGE VALUE.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/2014EPAC.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME                DATES         MAX WIND (MPH)
---------------------------------------------------
MH AMANDA          22-29 MAY           155
TS BORIS*            2-4 JUN            45
MH CRISTINA*        9-15 JUN           150
TS DOUGLAS      28 JUN-5 JUL            45
TS ELIDA*       30 JUN-2 JUL            50
TS FAUSTO            7-9 JUL            45
MH GENEVIEVE   25 JUL-13 AUG**         160
H  HERNAN          26-29 JUL            75
MH ISELLE       31 JUL-9 AUG**         140
MH JULIO            4-15 AUG**         115
H  KARINA          13-26 AUG            80
H  LOWELL          18-24 AUG            75
MH MARIE           22-29 AUG           160
---------------------------------------------------

*   DENOTES A STORM FOR WHICH THE POST-STORM ANALYSIS IS COMPLETE.
**  DATES INCLUDE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IN THE CENTRAL
    AND/OR WESTERN PACIFIC BASINS.

$$
HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT




000
ABPZ30 KNHC 011429
TWSEP

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 1 2014

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

FOUR STORMS FORMED IN THE BASIN DURING AUGUST.  ALL FOUR BECAME
HURRICANES...AND TWO OF THOSE BECAME MAJOR HURRICANES.  IN
ADDITION...ISELLE...WHICH FORMED AT THE END OF JULY...ALSO BECAME
A MAJOR HURRICANE.  BASED ON A 30-YEAR (1981-2010) CLIMATOLOGY...
THREE OR FOUR NAMED STORMS FORM IN THE BASIN IN AUGUST...WITH TWO
BECOMING HURRICANES AND ONE OF THOSE REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE
INTENSITY.

IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...ACTIVITY
IN THE BASIN SO FAR IN 2014 HAS BEEN ABOUT 60 PERCENT ABOVE THE
1981-2010 AVERAGE VALUE.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/2014EPAC.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME                DATES         MAX WIND (MPH)
---------------------------------------------------
MH AMANDA          22-29 MAY           155
TS BORIS*            2-4 JUN            45
MH CRISTINA*        9-15 JUN           150
TS DOUGLAS      28 JUN-5 JUL            45
TS ELIDA*       30 JUN-2 JUL            50
TS FAUSTO            7-9 JUL            45
MH GENEVIEVE   25 JUL-13 AUG**         160
H  HERNAN          26-29 JUL            75
MH ISELLE       31 JUL-9 AUG**         140
MH JULIO            4-15 AUG**         115
H  KARINA          13-26 AUG            80
H  LOWELL          18-24 AUG            75
MH MARIE           22-29 AUG           160
---------------------------------------------------

*   DENOTES A STORM FOR WHICH THE POST-STORM ANALYSIS IS COMPLETE.
**  DATES INCLUDE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IN THE CENTRAL
    AND/OR WESTERN PACIFIC BASINS.

$$
HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT




000
ABNT30 KNHC 011156
TWSAT

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN IN AUGUST...BOTH
OF WHICH BECAME HURRICANES. BASED ON A 30-YEAR (1981-2010)
CLIMATOLOGY...THREE OR FOUR NAMED STORMS FORM IN THE BASIN IN
AUGUST...WITH ONE OR TWO OF THOSE BECOMING HURRICANES. A MAJOR
HURRICANE OCCURS IN AUGUST IN ABOUT 7 OUT OF 10 YEARS.

IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...ACTIVITY
IN THE BASIN SO FAR IN 2014 HAS BEEN ABOUT 45 PERCENT OF THE 1981-
2010 AVERAGE.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/2014ATLAN.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME                DATES         MAX WIND (MPH)
---------------------------------------------------
H  ARTHUR            1-5 JUL           100
TD TWO             21-23 JUL            35
H  BERTHA            1-6 AUG            80
H  CRISTOBAL       23-29 AUG            85
---------------------------------------------------

* DENOTES A STORM FOR WHICH THE POST-STORM ANALYSIS IS COMPLETE.

$$
HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT



000
ABNT30 KNHC 011156
TWSAT

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN IN AUGUST...BOTH
OF WHICH BECAME HURRICANES. BASED ON A 30-YEAR (1981-2010)
CLIMATOLOGY...THREE OR FOUR NAMED STORMS FORM IN THE BASIN IN
AUGUST...WITH ONE OR TWO OF THOSE BECOMING HURRICANES. A MAJOR
HURRICANE OCCURS IN AUGUST IN ABOUT 7 OUT OF 10 YEARS.

IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...ACTIVITY
IN THE BASIN SO FAR IN 2014 HAS BEEN ABOUT 45 PERCENT OF THE 1981-
2010 AVERAGE.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/2014ATLAN.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME                DATES         MAX WIND (MPH)
---------------------------------------------------
H  ARTHUR            1-5 JUL           100
TD TWO             21-23 JUL            35
H  BERTHA            1-6 AUG            80
H  CRISTOBAL       23-29 AUG            85
---------------------------------------------------

* DENOTES A STORM FOR WHICH THE POST-STORM ANALYSIS IS COMPLETE.

$$
HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT




000
ACPN50 PHFO 011155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

$$

KINEL




000
ACPN50 PHFO 011155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

$$

KINEL





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 011142
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT LUNES 1 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA EXTENSA DE BAJA PRESION ESTA LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL ESTE DE LA
BAHIA DE CAMPECHE. LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES APARENTAN ESTAR
FAVORABLES PARA ALGUN DESARROLLO...Y ESTE SISTEMA PUDIERA
CONVERTIRSE EN DEPRESION TROPICAL EN UN DIA O DOS A MEDIDA QE SE
MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. UN AVION DE
RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA PROGRAMADO PARA
INVESTIGAR LA BAJA PRESION ESTA TARDE...SI ES NECESARIO.
INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DEL DESARROLLO...ESTE SISTEMA PRODUCIRA FUERTES
LLUVIAS A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y EL SURESTE DE MEXICO
HOY Y EL MARTES...Y A TRAVES DE SECTORES DEL ESTE DE MEXICO EL
MARTES Y MIERCOLES.

* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...ALTA...60 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 011142
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT LUNES 1 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA EXTENSA DE BAJA PRESION ESTA LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL ESTE DE LA
BAHIA DE CAMPECHE. LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES APARENTAN ESTAR
FAVORABLES PARA ALGUN DESARROLLO...Y ESTE SISTEMA PUDIERA
CONVERTIRSE EN DEPRESION TROPICAL EN UN DIA O DOS A MEDIDA QE SE
MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. UN AVION DE
RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA PROGRAMADO PARA
INVESTIGAR LA BAJA PRESION ESTA TARDE...SI ES NECESARIO.
INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DEL DESARROLLO...ESTE SISTEMA PRODUCIRA FUERTES
LLUVIAS A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y EL SURESTE DE MEXICO
HOY Y EL MARTES...Y A TRAVES DE SECTORES DEL ESTE DE MEXICO EL
MARTES Y MIERCOLES.

* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...ALTA...60 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 011142
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT LUNES 1 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA EXTENSA DE BAJA PRESION ESTA LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL ESTE DE LA
BAHIA DE CAMPECHE. LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES APARENTAN ESTAR
FAVORABLES PARA ALGUN DESARROLLO...Y ESTE SISTEMA PUDIERA
CONVERTIRSE EN DEPRESION TROPICAL EN UN DIA O DOS A MEDIDA QE SE
MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. UN AVION DE
RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA PROGRAMADO PARA
INVESTIGAR LA BAJA PRESION ESTA TARDE...SI ES NECESARIO.
INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DEL DESARROLLO...ESTE SISTEMA PRODUCIRA FUERTES
LLUVIAS A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y EL SURESTE DE MEXICO
HOY Y EL MARTES...Y A TRAVES DE SECTORES DEL ESTE DE MEXICO EL
MARTES Y MIERCOLES.

* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...ALTA...60 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 011142
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT LUNES 1 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA EXTENSA DE BAJA PRESION ESTA LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL ESTE DE LA
BAHIA DE CAMPECHE. LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES APARENTAN ESTAR
FAVORABLES PARA ALGUN DESARROLLO...Y ESTE SISTEMA PUDIERA
CONVERTIRSE EN DEPRESION TROPICAL EN UN DIA O DOS A MEDIDA QE SE
MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. UN AVION DE
RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA PROGRAMADO PARA
INVESTIGAR LA BAJA PRESION ESTA TARDE...SI ES NECESARIO.
INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DEL DESARROLLO...ESTE SISTEMA PRODUCIRA FUERTES
LLUVIAS A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y EL SURESTE DE MEXICO
HOY Y EL MARTES...Y A TRAVES DE SECTORES DEL ESTE DE MEXICO EL
MARTES Y MIERCOLES.

* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...ALTA...60 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011140
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression could form by late week while the disturbance
moves slowly northward and then northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011140
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression could form by late week while the disturbance
moves slowly northward and then northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABNT20 KNHC 011138
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is located over the eastern Bay
of Campeche.  Environmental conditions appear to be favorable for
some development, and this system could become a tropical depression
within the next day or two as it moves west-northwestward near 10
mph.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the low this afternoon, if necessary.  Regardless of
development, this system will produce heavy rainfall across the
Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern Mexico today and Tuesday, and
across portions of eastern mainland Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
ABNT20 KNHC 011138
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is located over the eastern Bay
of Campeche.  Environmental conditions appear to be favorable for
some development, and this system could become a tropical depression
within the next day or two as it moves west-northwestward near 10
mph.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the low this afternoon, if necessary.  Regardless of
development, this system will produce heavy rainfall across the
Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern Mexico today and Tuesday, and
across portions of eastern mainland Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



000
AXNT20 KNHC 011050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 23N92W TO 14N91W...MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 19N92W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE
WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EXTENDING TO SOUTHERN
MEXICO INCLUDING THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DEVELOPS FROM IT AS IT MOVES INTO THE WARM GULF
WATERS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO TODAY AND TUESDAY...AND ACROSS MAINLAND MEXICO
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS JUST W OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 17N25W TO 07N26W...MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS AND ITS SOUTHERN END IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 24W-27W. ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N-
12N BETWEEN 23W-25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N44W TO 11N44W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS IN THE
ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N-12N...BETWEEN 43W-45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 220 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N57W TO 10N57W...MOVING WEST AT 10-15
KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE
WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ALONG 11N...BETWEEN 54W-59W.

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N66W TO 11N66W MOVING WEST AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON TPW IMAGERY. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP LAYER
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
07N31W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N31W TO 12N43W TO 11N50W TO
11N56W. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT CONVECTION...PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A HIGH POTENTIAL
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A MID-
TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING THIS WAVE. MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
ALSO PRESENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE...WHICH IS FUELING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS MAINLY S OF
23N. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS WAVE...SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS
THE NW GULF...WITH CENTER NEAR 28N94W.  WITH THIS...UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AS THE WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE CONTINUES MOVING W. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SE FLOW AT 10-15 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 80W. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 66W DISCUSSED ABOVE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS HINDERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. AN
UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AT
23N73W ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
HISPANIOLA. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 10-15 KT
DOMINATE THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W
AND THE CENTRAL BASIN S OF 15W BETWEEN 67W-80W WHERE 15-20 KT
WINDS PERSIST. THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO
RICO WILL CONTINUE MOVING W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TUESDAY
ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE
ENTERS THE BASIN BY TUESDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FAIRLY HUMID. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY
BRINGING MORE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ANCHORED NEAR THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 27N
BETWEEN 63W-77W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 011050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 23N92W TO 14N91W...MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 19N92W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE
WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EXTENDING TO SOUTHERN
MEXICO INCLUDING THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DEVELOPS FROM IT AS IT MOVES INTO THE WARM GULF
WATERS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO TODAY AND TUESDAY...AND ACROSS MAINLAND MEXICO
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS JUST W OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 17N25W TO 07N26W...MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS AND ITS SOUTHERN END IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 24W-27W. ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N-
12N BETWEEN 23W-25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N44W TO 11N44W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS IN THE
ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N-12N...BETWEEN 43W-45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 220 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N57W TO 10N57W...MOVING WEST AT 10-15
KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE
WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ALONG 11N...BETWEEN 54W-59W.

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N66W TO 11N66W MOVING WEST AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON TPW IMAGERY. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP LAYER
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
07N31W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N31W TO 12N43W TO 11N50W TO
11N56W. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT CONVECTION...PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A HIGH POTENTIAL
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A MID-
TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING THIS WAVE. MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
ALSO PRESENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE...WHICH IS FUELING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS MAINLY S OF
23N. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS WAVE...SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS
THE NW GULF...WITH CENTER NEAR 28N94W.  WITH THIS...UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AS THE WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE CONTINUES MOVING W. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SE FLOW AT 10-15 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 80W. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 66W DISCUSSED ABOVE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS HINDERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. AN
UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AT
23N73W ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
HISPANIOLA. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 10-15 KT
DOMINATE THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W
AND THE CENTRAL BASIN S OF 15W BETWEEN 67W-80W WHERE 15-20 KT
WINDS PERSIST. THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO
RICO WILL CONTINUE MOVING W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TUESDAY
ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE
ENTERS THE BASIN BY TUESDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FAIRLY HUMID. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY
BRINGING MORE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ANCHORED NEAR THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 27N
BETWEEN 63W-77W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 011050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 23N92W TO 14N91W...MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 19N92W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE
WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EXTENDING TO SOUTHERN
MEXICO INCLUDING THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DEVELOPS FROM IT AS IT MOVES INTO THE WARM GULF
WATERS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO TODAY AND TUESDAY...AND ACROSS MAINLAND MEXICO
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS JUST W OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 17N25W TO 07N26W...MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS AND ITS SOUTHERN END IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 24W-27W. ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N-
12N BETWEEN 23W-25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N44W TO 11N44W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS IN THE
ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N-12N...BETWEEN 43W-45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 220 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N57W TO 10N57W...MOVING WEST AT 10-15
KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE
WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ALONG 11N...BETWEEN 54W-59W.

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N66W TO 11N66W MOVING WEST AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON TPW IMAGERY. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP LAYER
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
07N31W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N31W TO 12N43W TO 11N50W TO
11N56W. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT CONVECTION...PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A HIGH POTENTIAL
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A MID-
TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING THIS WAVE. MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
ALSO PRESENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE...WHICH IS FUELING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS MAINLY S OF
23N. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS WAVE...SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS
THE NW GULF...WITH CENTER NEAR 28N94W.  WITH THIS...UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AS THE WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE CONTINUES MOVING W. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SE FLOW AT 10-15 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 80W. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 66W DISCUSSED ABOVE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS HINDERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. AN
UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AT
23N73W ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
HISPANIOLA. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 10-15 KT
DOMINATE THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W
AND THE CENTRAL BASIN S OF 15W BETWEEN 67W-80W WHERE 15-20 KT
WINDS PERSIST. THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO
RICO WILL CONTINUE MOVING W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TUESDAY
ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE
ENTERS THE BASIN BY TUESDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FAIRLY HUMID. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY
BRINGING MORE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ANCHORED NEAR THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 27N
BETWEEN 63W-77W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 011050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 23N92W TO 14N91W...MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 19N92W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE
WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EXTENDING TO SOUTHERN
MEXICO INCLUDING THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DEVELOPS FROM IT AS IT MOVES INTO THE WARM GULF
WATERS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO TODAY AND TUESDAY...AND ACROSS MAINLAND MEXICO
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS JUST W OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 17N25W TO 07N26W...MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS AND ITS SOUTHERN END IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 24W-27W. ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N-
12N BETWEEN 23W-25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N44W TO 11N44W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS IN THE
ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N-12N...BETWEEN 43W-45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 220 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N57W TO 10N57W...MOVING WEST AT 10-15
KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE
WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ALONG 11N...BETWEEN 54W-59W.

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N66W TO 11N66W MOVING WEST AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON TPW IMAGERY. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP LAYER
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
07N31W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N31W TO 12N43W TO 11N50W TO
11N56W. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT CONVECTION...PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A HIGH POTENTIAL
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A MID-
TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING THIS WAVE. MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
ALSO PRESENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE...WHICH IS FUELING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS MAINLY S OF
23N. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS WAVE...SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS
THE NW GULF...WITH CENTER NEAR 28N94W.  WITH THIS...UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AS THE WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE CONTINUES MOVING W. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SE FLOW AT 10-15 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 80W. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 66W DISCUSSED ABOVE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS HINDERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. AN
UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AT
23N73W ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
HISPANIOLA. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 10-15 KT
DOMINATE THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W
AND THE CENTRAL BASIN S OF 15W BETWEEN 67W-80W WHERE 15-20 KT
WINDS PERSIST. THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO
RICO WILL CONTINUE MOVING W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TUESDAY
ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE
ENTERS THE BASIN BY TUESDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FAIRLY HUMID. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY
BRINGING MORE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ANCHORED NEAR THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 27N
BETWEEN 63W-77W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010920
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON SEP 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0815 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 116W/117W FROM 10N-20N MOVING W 10-15 KT
OVER PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS BECOMING ILL-DEFINED AS IT
APPROACHES THE SURFACE RIDGE. ANY CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND W GUATEMALA ALONG
91W/92W N OF 15N. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
LATER THIS MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N78W ALONG 10N88W 15N100W
14N107W 11N119W TO 10N128W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 10N140W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 100W-103W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 13N TO OVER MEXICO
BETWEEN 98W-104W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87W-89W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH
E OF 80W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND WITHIN 225 NM S OF MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 104W-11W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 107W-114W AND WITHIN 120 NM S
OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 113W-121W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1012 MB LOW...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...IS CENTERED NEAR 31N138W
AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS NW OF THE CENTER. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OUTSIDE
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...BUT ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT REMAIN IN
THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
MORNING.

A 1026 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND
EXTENDS NARROW RIDGES TO THE E AND TO THE SW OF THE 1012 MB LOW
DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AS
THE MONSOON TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD AND CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE
ACTIVE AS A RESULT OF AN INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS S MEXICO AND W GUATEMALA. THE STRONG SW
MONSOON FLOW WILL EXPAND TOWARD THE SW COAST OF MEXICO BUILDING
SEAS TO 10 FT MON NIGHT THEN A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TUE NIGHT NEAR 18N107W BUILDING SEAS TO 12 FT.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

STRONG SW SWELL GENERATED ACROSS THE SOUTH PACIFIC WILL CROSS
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 120W AND 130W TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9
FT S OF 4N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W BY WED AND REMAIN THROUGH THU.

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010920
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON SEP 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0815 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 116W/117W FROM 10N-20N MOVING W 10-15 KT
OVER PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS BECOMING ILL-DEFINED AS IT
APPROACHES THE SURFACE RIDGE. ANY CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND W GUATEMALA ALONG
91W/92W N OF 15N. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
LATER THIS MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N78W ALONG 10N88W 15N100W
14N107W 11N119W TO 10N128W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 10N140W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 100W-103W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 13N TO OVER MEXICO
BETWEEN 98W-104W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87W-89W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH
E OF 80W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND WITHIN 225 NM S OF MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 104W-11W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 107W-114W AND WITHIN 120 NM S
OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 113W-121W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1012 MB LOW...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...IS CENTERED NEAR 31N138W
AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS NW OF THE CENTER. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OUTSIDE
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...BUT ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT REMAIN IN
THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
MORNING.

A 1026 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND
EXTENDS NARROW RIDGES TO THE E AND TO THE SW OF THE 1012 MB LOW
DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AS
THE MONSOON TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD AND CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE
ACTIVE AS A RESULT OF AN INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS S MEXICO AND W GUATEMALA. THE STRONG SW
MONSOON FLOW WILL EXPAND TOWARD THE SW COAST OF MEXICO BUILDING
SEAS TO 10 FT MON NIGHT THEN A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TUE NIGHT NEAR 18N107W BUILDING SEAS TO 12 FT.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

STRONG SW SWELL GENERATED ACROSS THE SOUTH PACIFIC WILL CROSS
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 120W AND 130W TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9
FT S OF 4N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W BY WED AND REMAIN THROUGH THU.

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010920
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON SEP 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0815 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 116W/117W FROM 10N-20N MOVING W 10-15 KT
OVER PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS BECOMING ILL-DEFINED AS IT
APPROACHES THE SURFACE RIDGE. ANY CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND W GUATEMALA ALONG
91W/92W N OF 15N. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
LATER THIS MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N78W ALONG 10N88W 15N100W
14N107W 11N119W TO 10N128W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 10N140W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 100W-103W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 13N TO OVER MEXICO
BETWEEN 98W-104W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87W-89W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH
E OF 80W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND WITHIN 225 NM S OF MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 104W-11W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 107W-114W AND WITHIN 120 NM S
OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 113W-121W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1012 MB LOW...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...IS CENTERED NEAR 31N138W
AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS NW OF THE CENTER. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OUTSIDE
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...BUT ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT REMAIN IN
THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
MORNING.

A 1026 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND
EXTENDS NARROW RIDGES TO THE E AND TO THE SW OF THE 1012 MB LOW
DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AS
THE MONSOON TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD AND CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE
ACTIVE AS A RESULT OF AN INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS S MEXICO AND W GUATEMALA. THE STRONG SW
MONSOON FLOW WILL EXPAND TOWARD THE SW COAST OF MEXICO BUILDING
SEAS TO 10 FT MON NIGHT THEN A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TUE NIGHT NEAR 18N107W BUILDING SEAS TO 12 FT.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

STRONG SW SWELL GENERATED ACROSS THE SOUTH PACIFIC WILL CROSS
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 120W AND 130W TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9
FT S OF 4N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W BY WED AND REMAIN THROUGH THU.

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010920
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON SEP 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0815 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 116W/117W FROM 10N-20N MOVING W 10-15 KT
OVER PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS BECOMING ILL-DEFINED AS IT
APPROACHES THE SURFACE RIDGE. ANY CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND W GUATEMALA ALONG
91W/92W N OF 15N. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
LATER THIS MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N78W ALONG 10N88W 15N100W
14N107W 11N119W TO 10N128W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 10N140W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 100W-103W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 13N TO OVER MEXICO
BETWEEN 98W-104W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87W-89W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH
E OF 80W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND WITHIN 225 NM S OF MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 104W-11W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 107W-114W AND WITHIN 120 NM S
OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 113W-121W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1012 MB LOW...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...IS CENTERED NEAR 31N138W
AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS NW OF THE CENTER. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OUTSIDE
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...BUT ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT REMAIN IN
THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
MORNING.

A 1026 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND
EXTENDS NARROW RIDGES TO THE E AND TO THE SW OF THE 1012 MB LOW
DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AS
THE MONSOON TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD AND CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE
ACTIVE AS A RESULT OF AN INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS S MEXICO AND W GUATEMALA. THE STRONG SW
MONSOON FLOW WILL EXPAND TOWARD THE SW COAST OF MEXICO BUILDING
SEAS TO 10 FT MON NIGHT THEN A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TUE NIGHT NEAR 18N107W BUILDING SEAS TO 12 FT.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

STRONG SW SWELL GENERATED ACROSS THE SOUTH PACIFIC WILL CROSS
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 120W AND 130W TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9
FT S OF 4N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W BY WED AND REMAIN THROUGH THU.

$$
PAW



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 010609
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT LUNES 1 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA EXTENSA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA AL SUR DE CAMPACHE EN LA
COSTA OESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN ESTA PRODUCIENDO UN AREA
GRANDE DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS DISPERSAS. ESTE SISTEMA ESTA
DEMOSTRANDO ORGANIZACION MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE
ALREDEDOR DE 10 MPH...Y UN DESARROLLO DE DEPRESION TROPICAL ES
POSIBLE CUANDO EL CENTRO DEL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA SOBRE LAS AGUAS
CALIENTES DE LA BAHIA DE CAMPECHE MAS TARDE HOY HASTA EL MARTES. UN
AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA
PROGRAMADO PARA INVESTIGAR LA BAJA PRESION ESTA TARDE...SI ES
NECESARIO. INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DEL DESARROLLO...ESTE SISTEMA
PRODUCIRA FUERTES LLUVIAS A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y EL
SURESTE DE MEXICO HOY Y EL MARTES...Y A TRAVES DE PORCIONES DEL ESTE
DE MEXICO EL MARTES Y MIERCOLES.

* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...ALTA...60 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 010609
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT LUNES 1 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN AREA EXTENSA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA AL SUR DE CAMPACHE EN LA
COSTA OESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN ESTA PRODUCIENDO UN AREA
GRANDE DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS DISPERSAS. ESTE SISTEMA ESTA
DEMOSTRANDO ORGANIZACION MIENTRAS SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE
ALREDEDOR DE 10 MPH...Y UN DESARROLLO DE DEPRESION TROPICAL ES
POSIBLE CUANDO EL CENTRO DEL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA SOBRE LAS AGUAS
CALIENTES DE LA BAHIA DE CAMPECHE MAS TARDE HOY HASTA EL MARTES. UN
AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA
PROGRAMADO PARA INVESTIGAR LA BAJA PRESION ESTA TARDE...SI ES
NECESARIO. INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DEL DESARROLLO...ESTE SISTEMA
PRODUCIRA FUERTES LLUVIAS A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y EL
SURESTE DE MEXICO HOY Y EL MARTES...Y A TRAVES DE PORCIONES DEL ESTE
DE MEXICO EL MARTES Y MIERCOLES.

* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...ALTA...60 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...70 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART





000
ACPN50 PHFO 010555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SUN AUG 31 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

$$

KINEL





000
ACPN50 PHFO 010555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SUN AUG 31 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

$$

KINEL




000
ABNT20 KNHC 010551
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located south of Campeche on the
western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of
showers and scattered thunderstorms. This system is showing signs of
organization while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph, and
development of a tropical depression will be possible when the
center of the disturbance moves over the warm waters of the Bay of
Campeche later today and into Tuesday.  An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, this system will
produce heavy rainfall across the Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern
Mexico today and Tuesday, and across portions of eastern mainland
Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABNT20 KNHC 010551
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located south of Campeche on the
western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of
showers and scattered thunderstorms. This system is showing signs of
organization while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph, and
development of a tropical depression will be possible when the
center of the disturbance moves over the warm waters of the Bay of
Campeche later today and into Tuesday.  An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, this system will
produce heavy rainfall across the Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern
Mexico today and Tuesday, and across portions of eastern mainland
Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABNT20 KNHC 010551
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located south of Campeche on the
western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of
showers and scattered thunderstorms. This system is showing signs of
organization while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph, and
development of a tropical depression will be possible when the
center of the disturbance moves over the warm waters of the Bay of
Campeche later today and into Tuesday.  An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, this system will
produce heavy rainfall across the Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern
Mexico today and Tuesday, and across portions of eastern mainland
Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
ABNT20 KNHC 010551
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located south of Campeche on the
western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of
showers and scattered thunderstorms. This system is showing signs of
organization while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph, and
development of a tropical depression will be possible when the
center of the disturbance moves over the warm waters of the Bay of
Campeche later today and into Tuesday.  An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, this system will
produce heavy rainfall across the Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern
Mexico today and Tuesday, and across portions of eastern mainland
Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
AXNT20 KNHC 010537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N90W TO 15N91W...MOVING W AT
5 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES IN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
EXTENDING TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS JUST EAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 17N23W TO 07N24W...MOVING W AT 10-
15 KT. THE WAVE EXHIBIT A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS AND ITS SOUTHERN END IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 23W-26W. ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE W OF THE AXIS ALONG
20W...BETWEEN 12N-15N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
16N38W TO 09N41W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND
DUST IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING
CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N-12N...BETWEEN
42W-45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 400 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N54W TO 08N54W...MOVING WEST AT 10-15
KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE
WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ALONG 10N...BETWEEN 54W-56W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 20 NM EAST OF FAJARDO...PUERTO RICO...
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N65W TO 09N65W MOVING WEST AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON TPW IMAGERY. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION. DESPITE THIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PROXIMITY OF THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 07N24W TO 09N40W TO 08N45W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 08N45W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA AT 07N59W. FOR INFORMATION
ABOUT CONVECTION...PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A MEDIUM
POTENTIAL OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS. A MID-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND AN UPPER
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING THIS WAVE. MODERATE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS
WAVE...WHICH IS FUELING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
WATERS MAINLY S OF 22N. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS
WAVE...SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW GULF...WITH CENTER NEAR 26N94W.
WITH THIS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL ENHANCE
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS THE WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE
CONTINUES MOVING W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
WITHIN THAT PERIOD. SE FLOW AT 10-15 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
SW GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 85W. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 54W DISCUSSED ABOVE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS HINDERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. AN
UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AT
23N73W ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA. FAIR
WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE THE
BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W AND THE CENTRAL
BASIN S OF 15W BETWEEN 67W-80W WHERE 15-20 KT WINDS PERSIST. THE
TROPICAL WAVE E OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN TUESDAY ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA. A NEW
TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE BASIN BY TUESDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND. A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY E OF PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH
TUE ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
REFLECTS AT THE SURFACE AS TWO SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE ALONG
26N68W TO 20N72W AND A SECOND ONE FROM 32N68W TO 28N70W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES
ARE S OF 29N BETWEEN 64W-75W. FARTHER EAST...A TROUGH ALOFT
SUPPORT A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 27N50W TO A 1012
MB LOW NEAR 40N37W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS MOVING S ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REST OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 010537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N90W TO 15N91W...MOVING W AT
5 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES IN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
EXTENDING TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS JUST EAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 17N23W TO 07N24W...MOVING W AT 10-
15 KT. THE WAVE EXHIBIT A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS AND ITS SOUTHERN END IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 23W-26W. ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE W OF THE AXIS ALONG
20W...BETWEEN 12N-15N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
16N38W TO 09N41W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND
DUST IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING
CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N-12N...BETWEEN
42W-45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 400 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N54W TO 08N54W...MOVING WEST AT 10-15
KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE
WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ALONG 10N...BETWEEN 54W-56W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 20 NM EAST OF FAJARDO...PUERTO RICO...
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N65W TO 09N65W MOVING WEST AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON TPW IMAGERY. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION. DESPITE THIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PROXIMITY OF THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 07N24W TO 09N40W TO 08N45W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 08N45W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA AT 07N59W. FOR INFORMATION
ABOUT CONVECTION...PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A MEDIUM
POTENTIAL OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS. A MID-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND AN UPPER
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING THIS WAVE. MODERATE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS
WAVE...WHICH IS FUELING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
WATERS MAINLY S OF 22N. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS
WAVE...SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW GULF...WITH CENTER NEAR 26N94W.
WITH THIS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL ENHANCE
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS THE WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE
CONTINUES MOVING W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
WITHIN THAT PERIOD. SE FLOW AT 10-15 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
SW GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 85W. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 54W DISCUSSED ABOVE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS HINDERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. AN
UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AT
23N73W ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA. FAIR
WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE THE
BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W AND THE CENTRAL
BASIN S OF 15W BETWEEN 67W-80W WHERE 15-20 KT WINDS PERSIST. THE
TROPICAL WAVE E OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN TUESDAY ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA. A NEW
TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE BASIN BY TUESDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND. A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY E OF PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH
TUE ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
REFLECTS AT THE SURFACE AS TWO SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE ALONG
26N68W TO 20N72W AND A SECOND ONE FROM 32N68W TO 28N70W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES
ARE S OF 29N BETWEEN 64W-75W. FARTHER EAST...A TROUGH ALOFT
SUPPORT A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 27N50W TO A 1012
MB LOW NEAR 40N37W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS MOVING S ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REST OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 010537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N90W TO 15N91W...MOVING W AT
5 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES IN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
EXTENDING TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS JUST EAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 17N23W TO 07N24W...MOVING W AT 10-
15 KT. THE WAVE EXHIBIT A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS AND ITS SOUTHERN END IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 23W-26W. ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE W OF THE AXIS ALONG
20W...BETWEEN 12N-15N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
16N38W TO 09N41W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND
DUST IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING
CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N-12N...BETWEEN
42W-45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 400 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N54W TO 08N54W...MOVING WEST AT 10-15
KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE
WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ALONG 10N...BETWEEN 54W-56W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 20 NM EAST OF FAJARDO...PUERTO RICO...
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N65W TO 09N65W MOVING WEST AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON TPW IMAGERY. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION. DESPITE THIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PROXIMITY OF THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 07N24W TO 09N40W TO 08N45W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 08N45W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA AT 07N59W. FOR INFORMATION
ABOUT CONVECTION...PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A MEDIUM
POTENTIAL OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS. A MID-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND AN UPPER
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING THIS WAVE. MODERATE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS
WAVE...WHICH IS FUELING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
WATERS MAINLY S OF 22N. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS
WAVE...SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW GULF...WITH CENTER NEAR 26N94W.
WITH THIS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL ENHANCE
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS THE WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE
CONTINUES MOVING W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
WITHIN THAT PERIOD. SE FLOW AT 10-15 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
SW GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 85W. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 54W DISCUSSED ABOVE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS HINDERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. AN
UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AT
23N73W ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA. FAIR
WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE THE
BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W AND THE CENTRAL
BASIN S OF 15W BETWEEN 67W-80W WHERE 15-20 KT WINDS PERSIST. THE
TROPICAL WAVE E OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN TUESDAY ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA. A NEW
TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE BASIN BY TUESDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND. A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY E OF PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH
TUE ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
REFLECTS AT THE SURFACE AS TWO SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE ALONG
26N68W TO 20N72W AND A SECOND ONE FROM 32N68W TO 28N70W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES
ARE S OF 29N BETWEEN 64W-75W. FARTHER EAST...A TROUGH ALOFT
SUPPORT A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 27N50W TO A 1012
MB LOW NEAR 40N37W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS MOVING S ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REST OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 010537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N90W TO 15N91W...MOVING W AT
5 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES IN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
EXTENDING TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS JUST EAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 17N23W TO 07N24W...MOVING W AT 10-
15 KT. THE WAVE EXHIBIT A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS AND ITS SOUTHERN END IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 23W-26W. ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE W OF THE AXIS ALONG
20W...BETWEEN 12N-15N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
16N38W TO 09N41W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND
DUST IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING
CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N-12N...BETWEEN
42W-45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 400 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N54W TO 08N54W...MOVING WEST AT 10-15
KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE
WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ALONG 10N...BETWEEN 54W-56W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 20 NM EAST OF FAJARDO...PUERTO RICO...
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N65W TO 09N65W MOVING WEST AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON TPW IMAGERY. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION. DESPITE THIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PROXIMITY OF THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 07N24W TO 09N40W TO 08N45W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 08N45W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA AT 07N59W. FOR INFORMATION
ABOUT CONVECTION...PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A MEDIUM
POTENTIAL OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS. A MID-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND AN UPPER
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING THIS WAVE. MODERATE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS
WAVE...WHICH IS FUELING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
WATERS MAINLY S OF 22N. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS
WAVE...SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW GULF...WITH CENTER NEAR 26N94W.
WITH THIS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL ENHANCE
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS THE WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE
CONTINUES MOVING W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
WITHIN THAT PERIOD. SE FLOW AT 10-15 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
SW GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 85W. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 54W DISCUSSED ABOVE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS HINDERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. AN
UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AT
23N73W ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA. FAIR
WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE THE
BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W AND THE CENTRAL
BASIN S OF 15W BETWEEN 67W-80W WHERE 15-20 KT WINDS PERSIST. THE
TROPICAL WAVE E OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN TUESDAY ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA. A NEW
TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE BASIN BY TUESDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND. A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY E OF PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH
TUE ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
REFLECTS AT THE SURFACE AS TWO SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE ALONG
26N68W TO 20N72W AND A SECOND ONE FROM 32N68W TO 28N70W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES
ARE S OF 29N BETWEEN 64W-75W. FARTHER EAST...A TROUGH ALOFT
SUPPORT A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 27N50W TO A 1012
MB LOW NEAR 40N37W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS MOVING S ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REST OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010528
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this
disturbance during the next several days while it moves slowly
northward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010528
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this
disturbance during the next several days while it moves slowly
northward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010246
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON SEP 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED ALONG 111W-112 FROM 08N TO 17N
MOVING WWD 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WAS NOTED FROM 08N TO 14.5N BETWEEN
108W AND 116W...WHERE THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE ALONG AND S OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS
THE PORTION OF THE TROF E OF 110W DRIFTS N TOWARD THE MEXICAN
COASTAL WATERS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N74.5W TO 06.5N80W TO 14N99W
TO 09N125W... WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO
BEYOND 07N140W.  SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 180 NM
S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN
115W AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS
OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 91W AND 102W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM
N AND 120 NM S OF ITCZ W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1012 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE...IS
CENTERED NEAR 31.5N138.5W...AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD AND
ELONGATED AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SURROUNDING THE CENTER.
THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...BUT
ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE
FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THESE SEAS TO 8 FT WILL LINGER OVER
THE FAR NW WATERS THIS EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT MON
MORNING.

A 1026 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
42N150W AND EXTENDED A NARROW RIDGE SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 24N140W EXTENDING TO NEAR 19N120W. THE RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE MONSOON TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS A RESULT OF AN
INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SW MONSOON FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 10 FT S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 118W BY MONDAY EVENING.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

STRONG SW SWELL GENERATED ACROSS THE SOUTH PACIFIC HAS MOVED
THROUGH FRENCH POLYNESIA TODAY AND WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE
EQUATOR W OF 110W EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 8-9 FT IN THIS SW SWELL S OF 05N AND W OF 115W BY TUE
EVENING...AND REACH AS FAR AS 10N W OF 110W BY THU MORNING.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010246
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON SEP 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED ALONG 111W-112 FROM 08N TO 17N
MOVING WWD 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WAS NOTED FROM 08N TO 14.5N BETWEEN
108W AND 116W...WHERE THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE ALONG AND S OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS
THE PORTION OF THE TROF E OF 110W DRIFTS N TOWARD THE MEXICAN
COASTAL WATERS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N74.5W TO 06.5N80W TO 14N99W
TO 09N125W... WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO
BEYOND 07N140W.  SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 180 NM
S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN
115W AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS
OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 91W AND 102W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM
N AND 120 NM S OF ITCZ W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1012 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE...IS
CENTERED NEAR 31.5N138.5W...AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD AND
ELONGATED AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SURROUNDING THE CENTER.
THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...BUT
ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE
FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THESE SEAS TO 8 FT WILL LINGER OVER
THE FAR NW WATERS THIS EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT MON
MORNING.

A 1026 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
42N150W AND EXTENDED A NARROW RIDGE SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 24N140W EXTENDING TO NEAR 19N120W. THE RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE MONSOON TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS A RESULT OF AN
INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SW MONSOON FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 10 FT S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 118W BY MONDAY EVENING.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

STRONG SW SWELL GENERATED ACROSS THE SOUTH PACIFIC HAS MOVED
THROUGH FRENCH POLYNESIA TODAY AND WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE
EQUATOR W OF 110W EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 8-9 FT IN THIS SW SWELL S OF 05N AND W OF 115W BY TUE
EVENING...AND REACH AS FAR AS 10N W OF 110W BY THU MORNING.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXNT20 KNHC 010006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N89W TO 12N92W...MOVING W AT
5-10 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND
GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE INLAND IN
THE REGIONS MENTIONED ABOVE AS WELL AS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 27N. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MEDIUM
CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS JUST EAST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 17N22W TO 7N21W. ACCORDING TO UPPER-AIR
TIME SECTION ANALYSES FROM DAKAR SENEGAL...THE WAVE CAME OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST EARLY TODAY. THE WAVE EXHIBIT A STRONG SIGNAL IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS AND ITS SOUTHERN END IS EMBEDDED IN
THE MONSOON TROUGH. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
220 NM WEST OF THE AXIS S OF 11N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 1N-17N E OF 26W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
18N36W TO 9N38W...MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST
IS IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS LIMITING
CONVECTION TO SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 14N BETWEEN 37W-41W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 500 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N51W TO 7N51W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT.
SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS IN THE NORTHERN WAVE  ENVIRONMENT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE WAVE FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 51W-55W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N64W TO 10N64W MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TPW IMAGERY.
STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS INHIBITING DEEP
CONVECTION. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N24W 7N35W TO 8N45W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
8N45W TO 7N58W. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT CONVECTION SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A MEDIUM
POTENTIAL OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
THIS WAVE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AND AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH. THE WAVE IS
MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WHICH IS
FUELING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS GREAT PORTIONS OF THE
GULF S OF 28N. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. AN
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 26N81W TO
29N83W...WHICH IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT EXTEND WITHIN
80 NM OF THE COASTLINE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...THUS SUPPORTING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT. RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE W-SW GULF DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM IN SPECIAL FEATURES. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITHIN THAT PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE S-SW GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO ENHANCE RAINSHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EAST
CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR
IS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THAT REGION. A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ACROSS
WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR
THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W AND THE CENTRAL BASIN S OF 17W
BETWEEN 68W-80W WHERE 20-25 KT WINDS ABOUND. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH TUE ENHANCING MORE
SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE BASIN TUE
MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ACROSS
WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN
MON THROUGH TUE ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS REFLECTS AT THE SURFACE AS TWO SURFACE
TROUGHS...ONE ALONG 27N65W TO 25N69W AND A SECOND TROUGH FROM
23N68W TO 19N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES ARE S OF 29N BETWEEN 60W-
72W. FARTHER EAST...A TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N46W TO A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 28N49W TO
26N51W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 010006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N89W TO 12N92W...MOVING W AT
5-10 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND
GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE INLAND IN
THE REGIONS MENTIONED ABOVE AS WELL AS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 27N. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MEDIUM
CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS JUST EAST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 17N22W TO 7N21W. ACCORDING TO UPPER-AIR
TIME SECTION ANALYSES FROM DAKAR SENEGAL...THE WAVE CAME OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST EARLY TODAY. THE WAVE EXHIBIT A STRONG SIGNAL IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS AND ITS SOUTHERN END IS EMBEDDED IN
THE MONSOON TROUGH. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
220 NM WEST OF THE AXIS S OF 11N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 1N-17N E OF 26W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
18N36W TO 9N38W...MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST
IS IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS LIMITING
CONVECTION TO SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 14N BETWEEN 37W-41W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 500 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N51W TO 7N51W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT.
SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS IN THE NORTHERN WAVE  ENVIRONMENT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE WAVE FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 51W-55W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N64W TO 10N64W MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TPW IMAGERY.
STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS INHIBITING DEEP
CONVECTION. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N24W 7N35W TO 8N45W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
8N45W TO 7N58W. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT CONVECTION SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A MEDIUM
POTENTIAL OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
THIS WAVE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AND AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH. THE WAVE IS
MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WHICH IS
FUELING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS GREAT PORTIONS OF THE
GULF S OF 28N. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. AN
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 26N81W TO
29N83W...WHICH IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT EXTEND WITHIN
80 NM OF THE COASTLINE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...THUS SUPPORTING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT. RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE W-SW GULF DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM IN SPECIAL FEATURES. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITHIN THAT PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE S-SW GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO ENHANCE RAINSHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EAST
CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR
IS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THAT REGION. A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ACROSS
WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR
THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W AND THE CENTRAL BASIN S OF 17W
BETWEEN 68W-80W WHERE 20-25 KT WINDS ABOUND. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH TUE ENHANCING MORE
SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE BASIN TUE
MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ACROSS
WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN
MON THROUGH TUE ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS REFLECTS AT THE SURFACE AS TWO SURFACE
TROUGHS...ONE ALONG 27N65W TO 25N69W AND A SECOND TROUGH FROM
23N68W TO 19N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES ARE S OF 29N BETWEEN 60W-
72W. FARTHER EAST...A TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N46W TO A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 28N49W TO
26N51W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
ACPN50 PHFO 312345
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SUN AUG 31 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

REYNES




000
ACPN50 PHFO 312345
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SUN AUG 31 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

REYNES





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 312338
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT DOMINGO 31 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LAS OBSERVACIONES DE SATELITES Y LOS DATOS DE SUPERFICIE INDICAN QUE
UN AREA EXTENSA DE BAJA PRESION SE HA FORMADO JUNTO A UNA ONDA
TROPICAL QUE SE MUEVE A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. SE
PRONOSTICA QUE LA BAJA PRESION SE MOVERA SOBRE LAS AGUAS AL ESTE DE
LA BAHIA DE CAMPECHE TEMPRANO EL LUNES...DONDE LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES SE ESPERAN  SEAN MAS CONDUCENTES PARA SU DESARROLLO.
ESTE SISTEMA TIENE EL POTENCIAL DE CONVERTIRSE EN UNA DEPRESION
TROPICAL MIENTRAS SE MUEVA AL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH A
TRAVES DEL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DOS O
TRES DIAS.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...60 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 312338
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT DOMINGO 31 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LAS OBSERVACIONES DE SATELITES Y LOS DATOS DE SUPERFICIE INDICAN QUE
UN AREA EXTENSA DE BAJA PRESION SE HA FORMADO JUNTO A UNA ONDA
TROPICAL QUE SE MUEVE A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. SE
PRONOSTICA QUE LA BAJA PRESION SE MOVERA SOBRE LAS AGUAS AL ESTE DE
LA BAHIA DE CAMPECHE TEMPRANO EL LUNES...DONDE LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES SE ESPERAN  SEAN MAS CONDUCENTES PARA SU DESARROLLO.
ESTE SISTEMA TIENE EL POTENCIAL DE CONVERTIRSE EN UNA DEPRESION
TROPICAL MIENTRAS SE MUEVA AL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH A
TRAVES DEL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DOS O
TRES DIAS.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...60 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 312330
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south
of the south-central coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next several days while it moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
ABNT20 KNHC 312330
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite and surface data indicate that a broad area of low
pressure has formed in association with a tropical wave moving
across the Yucatan Peninsula. The low is forecast to move over the
waters of the eastern Bay of Campeche early Monday, where
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development.  This system has the potential to become a tropical
depression while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph across
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next two to three days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABNT20 KNHC 312330
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite and surface data indicate that a broad area of low
pressure has formed in association with a tropical wave moving
across the Yucatan Peninsula. The low is forecast to move over the
waters of the eastern Bay of Campeche early Monday, where
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development.  This system has the potential to become a tropical
depression while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph across
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next two to three days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 312330
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south
of the south-central coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next several days while it moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312201
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED ALONG 110W-11W FROM 08N TO 21N
MOVING WWD 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS
NOTED FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 105W AND 114W WHERE THE WAVE IS
INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACTIVE ALONG AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THIS AREA
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08.5N74.5W TO 13N97.5W TO
10N124W... WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO
BEYOND 07N140W.  SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 210 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 92W AND 114W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 90 NM S OF ITCZ W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1011 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE...IS
CENTERED NEAR 31.5N138W...AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD AND
ELONGATED AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SURROUNDING THE CENTER.
THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...BUT
ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE
FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THESE SEAS TO 8 FT WILL LINGER OVER
THE FAR NW WATERS THIS EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT MON.

A 1026 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
42N150W AND EXTENDED A NARROW RIDGE SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 24N140W EXTENDING TO NEAR 19N120W. THE RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE MONSOON TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS A RESULT OF AN
INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SW MONSOON FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 120W BY MONDAY EVENING.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312201
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED ALONG 110W-11W FROM 08N TO 21N
MOVING WWD 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS
NOTED FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 105W AND 114W WHERE THE WAVE IS
INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACTIVE ALONG AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THIS AREA
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08.5N74.5W TO 13N97.5W TO
10N124W... WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO
BEYOND 07N140W.  SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 210 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 92W AND 114W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 90 NM S OF ITCZ W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1011 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE...IS
CENTERED NEAR 31.5N138W...AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD AND
ELONGATED AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SURROUNDING THE CENTER.
THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...BUT
ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE
FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THESE SEAS TO 8 FT WILL LINGER OVER
THE FAR NW WATERS THIS EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT MON.

A 1026 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
42N150W AND EXTENDED A NARROW RIDGE SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 24N140W EXTENDING TO NEAR 19N120W. THE RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE MONSOON TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS A RESULT OF AN
INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SW MONSOON FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 120W BY MONDAY EVENING.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXNT20 KNHC 311756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N88W TO 12N88W...MOVING W AT
10 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER BELIZE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SW GULF OF
MEXICO ON MONDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. PRESENTLY CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 80W-89W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
19N34W TO 10N38W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 35W-39W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N51W TO 9N52W MOVING W AT 15 KT. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 49W-52W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N63W TO 10N64W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 63W-69W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N16W TO
9N30W TO 9N38W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N38W TO 9N46W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OFF THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 16W-27W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 43W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS SURFACE RIDGING
FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 32N. 10-15 KT SE SURFACE WINDS
COVERS THE GULF N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER W LOUISIANA AND SE
TEXAS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 93W-97W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 94W-
97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 80W-90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N93W.
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 23N84W. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...AND W GULF W OF 87W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DOMINATING THE
WEATHER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION
ABOVE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN PRODUCING
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 24N71W. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE CENTER TO
JAMAICA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS PARTIALLY DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW N OF THE ISLAND. ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO
PRODUCE MORE CONVECTION MOSTLY S OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 38N61W. THE TAIL END
OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N44W TO
31N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. ANOTHER 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N27W.
OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 24N71W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 62W-69W.
ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N36W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 311756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N88W TO 12N88W...MOVING W AT
10 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER BELIZE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SW GULF OF
MEXICO ON MONDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. PRESENTLY CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 80W-89W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
19N34W TO 10N38W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 35W-39W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N51W TO 9N52W MOVING W AT 15 KT. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 49W-52W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N63W TO 10N64W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 63W-69W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N16W TO
9N30W TO 9N38W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N38W TO 9N46W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OFF THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 16W-27W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 43W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS SURFACE RIDGING
FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 32N. 10-15 KT SE SURFACE WINDS
COVERS THE GULF N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER W LOUISIANA AND SE
TEXAS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 93W-97W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 94W-
97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 80W-90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N93W.
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 23N84W. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...AND W GULF W OF 87W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DOMINATING THE
WEATHER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION
ABOVE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN PRODUCING
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 24N71W. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE CENTER TO
JAMAICA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS PARTIALLY DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW N OF THE ISLAND. ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO
PRODUCE MORE CONVECTION MOSTLY S OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 38N61W. THE TAIL END
OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N44W TO
31N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. ANOTHER 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N27W.
OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 24N71W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 62W-69W.
ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N36W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 311756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N88W TO 12N88W...MOVING W AT
10 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER BELIZE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SW GULF OF
MEXICO ON MONDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. PRESENTLY CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 80W-89W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
19N34W TO 10N38W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 35W-39W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N51W TO 9N52W MOVING W AT 15 KT. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 49W-52W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N63W TO 10N64W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 63W-69W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N16W TO
9N30W TO 9N38W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N38W TO 9N46W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OFF THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 16W-27W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 43W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS SURFACE RIDGING
FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 32N. 10-15 KT SE SURFACE WINDS
COVERS THE GULF N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER W LOUISIANA AND SE
TEXAS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 93W-97W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 94W-
97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 80W-90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N93W.
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 23N84W. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...AND W GULF W OF 87W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DOMINATING THE
WEATHER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION
ABOVE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN PRODUCING
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 24N71W. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE CENTER TO
JAMAICA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS PARTIALLY DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW N OF THE ISLAND. ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO
PRODUCE MORE CONVECTION MOSTLY S OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 38N61W. THE TAIL END
OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N44W TO
31N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. ANOTHER 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N27W.
OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 24N71W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 62W-69W.
ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N36W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 311756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N88W TO 12N88W...MOVING W AT
10 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER BELIZE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SW GULF OF
MEXICO ON MONDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. PRESENTLY CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 80W-89W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
19N34W TO 10N38W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 35W-39W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N51W TO 9N52W MOVING W AT 15 KT. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 49W-52W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N63W TO 10N64W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 63W-69W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N16W TO
9N30W TO 9N38W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N38W TO 9N46W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OFF THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 16W-27W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 43W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS SURFACE RIDGING
FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 32N. 10-15 KT SE SURFACE WINDS
COVERS THE GULF N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER W LOUISIANA AND SE
TEXAS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 93W-97W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 94W-
97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 80W-90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N93W.
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 23N84W. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...AND W GULF W OF 87W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DOMINATING THE
WEATHER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION
ABOVE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN PRODUCING
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 24N71W. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE CENTER TO
JAMAICA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS PARTIALLY DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW N OF THE ISLAND. ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO
PRODUCE MORE CONVECTION MOSTLY S OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 38N61W. THE TAIL END
OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N44W TO
31N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. ANOTHER 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N27W.
OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 24N71W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 62W-69W.
ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N36W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
ACPN50 PHFO 311745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SUN AUG 31 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

REYNES





000
ACPN50 PHFO 311745
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SUN AUG 31 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

REYNES






000
ACCA62 TJSJ 311738
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 31 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADA CON UNA ONDA TROPICAL
SOBRE EL ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y BELIZE SE HA TORNADO UN
POCO MEJOR ORGANIZADA EN LAS PASADAS HORAS. SIN EMBARGO...SE ESPERA
QUE LA INTERACCION DE TIERRA LIMITE DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO
MIENTRAS EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVE SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN HOY Y
ESTA NOCHE. SIN EMBARGO...LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SON
CONDUCENTES PARA QUE OCURRA UN DESARROLLO GRADUAL UNA VEZ EL SISTEMA
SE MUEVA SOBRE EL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO EL LUNES.

* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...40 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...ALTA...60 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH




000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311732
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms, associated with a
trough of low pressure, has formed near the south-central coast of
Mexico and extends westward for several hundred miles.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days while it
moves northwestward around 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311732
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms, associated with a
trough of low pressure, has formed near the south-central coast of
Mexico and extends westward for several hundred miles.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days while it
moves northwestward around 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
ABNT20 KNHC 311730
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and Belize has become a little
better organized over the past few hours.  However, land interaction
is expected to limit significant development while the disturbance
moves across the Yucatan peninsula later today and tonight.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development once the system moves into the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311503
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 110W FROM 08N TO 21N. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 08N TO 12N
BETWEEN 106W AND 114W WHERE THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 14N99W TO 09N112W TO
08N130W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH
EXTENDS BEYOND 09N140W. THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BECOME MORE
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AS SW MONSOON FLOW IS INCREASING AS A RESULT
OF FALLING PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE INCREASED SW MONSOON FLOW IS HELPING FOR
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 15N
BETWEEN 92W AND 101W. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE INTERACTION OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 110W HAS HELPED FOR
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N
AND 90 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 114W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 131W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1011 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE...IS
CENTERED NEAR 31N137W. ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT WILL LINGER OVER
THE FAR NW WATERS TODAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT EARLY MON.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB CENTERED NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
41N152W EXTENDS A NARROW RIDGE SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
24N140W EXTENDING TO NEAR 19N120W.

THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE MONSOON TROUGH
LIFTS NORTHWARD AND CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS A RESULT
OF AN INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SW MONSOON FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 10 FT S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 110W BY TUE MORNING.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
AL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311503
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 110W FROM 08N TO 21N. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 08N TO 12N
BETWEEN 106W AND 114W WHERE THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 14N99W TO 09N112W TO
08N130W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH
EXTENDS BEYOND 09N140W. THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BECOME MORE
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AS SW MONSOON FLOW IS INCREASING AS A RESULT
OF FALLING PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE INCREASED SW MONSOON FLOW IS HELPING FOR
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 15N
BETWEEN 92W AND 101W. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE INTERACTION OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 110W HAS HELPED FOR
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N
AND 90 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 114W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 131W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1011 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE...IS
CENTERED NEAR 31N137W. ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT WILL LINGER OVER
THE FAR NW WATERS TODAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT EARLY MON.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB CENTERED NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
41N152W EXTENDS A NARROW RIDGE SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
24N140W EXTENDING TO NEAR 19N120W.

THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE MONSOON TROUGH
LIFTS NORTHWARD AND CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS A RESULT
OF AN INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SW MONSOON FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 10 FT S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 110W BY TUE MORNING.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
AL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311503
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 110W FROM 08N TO 21N. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 08N TO 12N
BETWEEN 106W AND 114W WHERE THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 14N99W TO 09N112W TO
08N130W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH
EXTENDS BEYOND 09N140W. THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BECOME MORE
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AS SW MONSOON FLOW IS INCREASING AS A RESULT
OF FALLING PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE INCREASED SW MONSOON FLOW IS HELPING FOR
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 15N
BETWEEN 92W AND 101W. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE INTERACTION OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 110W HAS HELPED FOR
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N
AND 90 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 114W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 131W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1011 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE...IS
CENTERED NEAR 31N137W. ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT WILL LINGER OVER
THE FAR NW WATERS TODAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT EARLY MON.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB CENTERED NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
41N152W EXTENDS A NARROW RIDGE SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
24N140W EXTENDING TO NEAR 19N120W.

THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE MONSOON TROUGH
LIFTS NORTHWARD AND CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS A RESULT
OF AN INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SW MONSOON FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 10 FT S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 110W BY TUE MORNING.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
AL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311503
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 110W FROM 08N TO 21N. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 08N TO 12N
BETWEEN 106W AND 114W WHERE THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 14N99W TO 09N112W TO
08N130W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH
EXTENDS BEYOND 09N140W. THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BECOME MORE
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AS SW MONSOON FLOW IS INCREASING AS A RESULT
OF FALLING PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE INCREASED SW MONSOON FLOW IS HELPING FOR
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 15N
BETWEEN 92W AND 101W. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE INTERACTION OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 110W HAS HELPED FOR
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N
AND 90 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 114W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 131W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1011 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE...IS
CENTERED NEAR 31N137W. ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT WILL LINGER OVER
THE FAR NW WATERS TODAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT EARLY MON.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB CENTERED NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
41N152W EXTENDS A NARROW RIDGE SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
24N140W EXTENDING TO NEAR 19N120W.

THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE MONSOON TROUGH
LIFTS NORTHWARD AND CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS A RESULT
OF AN INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SW MONSOON FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 10 FT S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 110W BY TUE MORNING.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
AL



000
ACPN50 PHFO 311155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SUN AUG 31 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

$$

KINEL




000
ACPN50 PHFO 311155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SUN AUG 31 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

$$

KINEL





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 311143
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT DOMINGO 31 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS DESORGANIZADAS CONTINUA ASOCIADA
CON UNA ONDA TROPICAL SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. LA
INTERACCION DE TIERRA LIMITARA DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO MIENTRAS EL
DISTURBIO SE MUEVE SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN HOY Y ESTA NOCHE.
SIN EMBARGO...LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SON CONDUCENTES PARA QUE
OCURRA UN DESARROLLO GRADUAL UNA VEZ EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA SOBRE EL
SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO EL LUNES.

* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...30 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 311143
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT DOMINGO 31 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS DESORGANIZADAS CONTINUA ASOCIADA
CON UNA ONDA TROPICAL SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. LA
INTERACCION DE TIERRA LIMITARA DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO MIENTRAS EL
DISTURBIO SE MUEVE SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN HOY Y ESTA NOCHE.
SIN EMBARGO...LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SON CONDUCENTES PARA QUE
OCURRA UN DESARROLLO GRADUAL UNA VEZ EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA SOBRE EL
SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO EL LUNES.

* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...MEDIANA...30 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR PASCH





000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311134
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form early next week within a
few hundred miles of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Some slow
development of this system is possible after that time while it
moves slowly northwestward and nears the the southern Baja
California peninsula.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311134
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form early next week within a
few hundred miles of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Some slow
development of this system is possible after that time while it
moves slowly northwestward and nears the the southern Baja
California peninsula.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABNT20 KNHC 311133
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea.  Land interaction will limit significant development while the
disturbance moves across the Yucatan peninsula today and tonight.
However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development once the system moves into the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




000
ABNT20 KNHC 311133
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea.  Land interaction will limit significant development while the
disturbance moves across the Yucatan peninsula today and tonight.
However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development once the system moves into the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




000
ABNT20 KNHC 311133
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea.  Land interaction will limit significant development while the
disturbance moves across the Yucatan peninsula today and tonight.
However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development once the system moves into the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




000
ABNT20 KNHC 311133
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea.  Land interaction will limit significant development while the
disturbance moves across the Yucatan peninsula today and tonight.
However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development once the system moves into the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




000
AXNT20 KNHC 311121
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N31W TO 15N33W...TO A
1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N34W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W. THE WAVE IS MOVING
WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 7N TO
12N BETWEEN 41W AND 45W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N62W
14N62W...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
10N TO 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W.

A TROPICAL WAVE RUNS THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO
GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 15N17W...TO 12N30W TO 9N48W. NO ITCZ IS APPARENT AT THIS
MOMENT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO
10N BETWEEN 12W AND 26W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN CENTRAL TEXAS. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
23N...IN GENERAL. ISOLATED MODERATE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
OF TEXAS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KOPM...KGVX...KVQT...KMDJ...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR
LESS HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS AT THE NAS WHITING FIELD NEAR MILTON...AND IN CRESTVIEW...
IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE
BEING REPORTED AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE 24 HOUR FORECAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG
91W WITH TO THE SOUTH OF 23N...WITH A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 18N91W. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN
89W AND 91W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD...ILL-DEFINED...AND DISORGANIZED MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.73 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...AND 0.11 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND NORTHERN COSTA RICA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. EXPECT
EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET...TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN
CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W.

...HISPANIOLA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N60W TO A 24N70W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE
WEST CENTRAL SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MOVING
AROUND THE 24N70W CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 62W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N TO 30N
BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 82W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED
IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA AND IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH
WILL CUT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER
THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH...AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...DURING THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT....THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 14N W OF 78W. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9
FEET...FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N5W
MOROCCO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A 31N17W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N25W TO 24N40W...TO A 22N54W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 17N60W. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A COLD
FRONT REACHES 32N48W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM
32N48W TO 31N56W AND 31N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 45W AND 52W. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND
70W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N27W...TO 30N34W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N41W...TO 28N62W...BEYOND 30N80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 311121
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N31W TO 15N33W...TO A
1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N34W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W. THE WAVE IS MOVING
WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 7N TO
12N BETWEEN 41W AND 45W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N62W
14N62W...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
10N TO 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W.

A TROPICAL WAVE RUNS THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO
GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 15N17W...TO 12N30W TO 9N48W. NO ITCZ IS APPARENT AT THIS
MOMENT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO
10N BETWEEN 12W AND 26W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN CENTRAL TEXAS. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
23N...IN GENERAL. ISOLATED MODERATE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
OF TEXAS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KOPM...KGVX...KVQT...KMDJ...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR
LESS HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS AT THE NAS WHITING FIELD NEAR MILTON...AND IN CRESTVIEW...
IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE
BEING REPORTED AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE 24 HOUR FORECAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG
91W WITH TO THE SOUTH OF 23N...WITH A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 18N91W. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN
89W AND 91W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD...ILL-DEFINED...AND DISORGANIZED MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.73 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...AND 0.11 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND NORTHERN COSTA RICA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. EXPECT
EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET...TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN
CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W.

...HISPANIOLA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N60W TO A 24N70W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE
WEST CENTRAL SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MOVING
AROUND THE 24N70W CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 62W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N TO 30N
BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 82W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED
IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA AND IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH
WILL CUT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER
THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH...AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...DURING THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT....THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 14N W OF 78W. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9
FEET...FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N5W
MOROCCO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A 31N17W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N25W TO 24N40W...TO A 22N54W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 17N60W. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A COLD
FRONT REACHES 32N48W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM
32N48W TO 31N56W AND 31N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 45W AND 52W. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND
70W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N27W...TO 30N34W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N41W...TO 28N62W...BEYOND 30N80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 311121
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N31W TO 15N33W...TO A
1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N34W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W. THE WAVE IS MOVING
WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 7N TO
12N BETWEEN 41W AND 45W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N62W
14N62W...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
10N TO 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W.

A TROPICAL WAVE RUNS THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO
GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 15N17W...TO 12N30W TO 9N48W. NO ITCZ IS APPARENT AT THIS
MOMENT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO
10N BETWEEN 12W AND 26W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN CENTRAL TEXAS. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
23N...IN GENERAL. ISOLATED MODERATE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
OF TEXAS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KOPM...KGVX...KVQT...KMDJ...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR
LESS HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS AT THE NAS WHITING FIELD NEAR MILTON...AND IN CRESTVIEW...
IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE
BEING REPORTED AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE 24 HOUR FORECAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG
91W WITH TO THE SOUTH OF 23N...WITH A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 18N91W. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN
89W AND 91W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD...ILL-DEFINED...AND DISORGANIZED MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.73 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...AND 0.11 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND NORTHERN COSTA RICA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. EXPECT
EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET...TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN
CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W.

...HISPANIOLA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N60W TO A 24N70W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE
WEST CENTRAL SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MOVING
AROUND THE 24N70W CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 62W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N TO 30N
BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 82W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED
IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA AND IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH
WILL CUT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER
THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH...AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...DURING THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT....THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 14N W OF 78W. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9
FEET...FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N5W
MOROCCO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A 31N17W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N25W TO 24N40W...TO A 22N54W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 17N60W. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A COLD
FRONT REACHES 32N48W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM
32N48W TO 31N56W AND 31N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 45W AND 52W. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND
70W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N27W...TO 30N34W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N41W...TO 28N62W...BEYOND 30N80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 311121
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N31W TO 15N33W...TO A
1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N34W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W. THE WAVE IS MOVING
WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 7N TO
12N BETWEEN 41W AND 45W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N62W
14N62W...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
10N TO 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W.

A TROPICAL WAVE RUNS THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO
GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 15N17W...TO 12N30W TO 9N48W. NO ITCZ IS APPARENT AT THIS
MOMENT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO
10N BETWEEN 12W AND 26W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN CENTRAL TEXAS. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
23N...IN GENERAL. ISOLATED MODERATE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
OF TEXAS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KOPM...KGVX...KVQT...KMDJ...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR
LESS HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS AT THE NAS WHITING FIELD NEAR MILTON...AND IN CRESTVIEW...
IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE
BEING REPORTED AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE 24 HOUR FORECAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG
91W WITH TO THE SOUTH OF 23N...WITH A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 18N91W. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN
89W AND 91W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD...ILL-DEFINED...AND DISORGANIZED MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.73 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...AND 0.11 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND NORTHERN COSTA RICA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. EXPECT
EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET...TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN
CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W.

...HISPANIOLA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N60W TO A 24N70W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE
WEST CENTRAL SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MOVING
AROUND THE 24N70W CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 62W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N TO 30N
BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 82W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED
IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA AND IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH
WILL CUT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER
THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH...AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...DURING THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT....THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 14N W OF 78W. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9
FEET...FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N5W
MOROCCO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A 31N17W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N25W TO 24N40W...TO A 22N54W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 17N60W. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A COLD
FRONT REACHES 32N48W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM
32N48W TO 31N56W AND 31N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 45W AND 52W. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND
70W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N27W...TO 30N34W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N41W...TO 28N62W...BEYOND 30N80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310853
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0815 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 100W FROM 09N-21N MOVING W 20-25 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N87W ALONG 15N92W 14N100W TO
12N111W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N124W TO
11N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF
9N TO COAST OF GUATEMALA AND MEXICO BETWEEN 90W-101W AND FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 100W-114W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1011 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...IS CENTERED
NEAR 31N137W DRIFTING W. THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN THE DISCUSSION AREA.
HOWEVER...THE SEAS WILL REMAIN 8 FT OR GREATER OVER THE FAR NW
PORTION THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

A 1025 MB HIGH NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS A NARROW RIDGE
AXIS THROUGH 32N148W CURVING SE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
24N140W TO 21N134W.

ELSEWHERE W OF 100W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO MOVE W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SW FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH
LEVELS WELL TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT
SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE BASIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE.

$$
PAW



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310853
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0815 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 100W FROM 09N-21N MOVING W 20-25 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N87W ALONG 15N92W 14N100W TO
12N111W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N124W TO
11N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF
9N TO COAST OF GUATEMALA AND MEXICO BETWEEN 90W-101W AND FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 100W-114W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1011 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...IS CENTERED
NEAR 31N137W DRIFTING W. THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN THE DISCUSSION AREA.
HOWEVER...THE SEAS WILL REMAIN 8 FT OR GREATER OVER THE FAR NW
PORTION THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

A 1025 MB HIGH NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS A NARROW RIDGE
AXIS THROUGH 32N148W CURVING SE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
24N140W TO 21N134W.

ELSEWHERE W OF 100W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO MOVE W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SW FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH
LEVELS WELL TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT
SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE BASIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE.

$$
PAW


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 310607
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT DOMINGO 31 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS DESORGANIZADOS Y TRONADAS CONTINUA
ASOCIADA CON UNA ONDA TROPICAL SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. ES
POSIBLE QUE LAS INTERACCIONES DE TIERRA LIMITEN UN DESARROLLO
SIGNIFICATIVO MIENTRAS EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE
YUCATAN HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. SIN EMBARGO...LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES
SON CONDUCENTES PARA QUE OCURRA UN DESARROLLO GRADUAL UNA VEZ EL
SISTEMA SE MUEVA SOBRE EL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO EL LUNES.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...20 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 310607
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT DOMINGO 31 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS DESORGANIZADOS Y TRONADAS CONTINUA
ASOCIADA CON UNA ONDA TROPICAL SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. ES
POSIBLE QUE LAS INTERACCIONES DE TIERRA LIMITEN UN DESARROLLO
SIGNIFICATIVO MIENTRAS EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE
YUCATAN HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. SIN EMBARGO...LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES
SON CONDUCENTES PARA QUE OCURRA UN DESARROLLO GRADUAL UNA VEZ EL
SISTEMA SE MUEVA SOBRE EL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO EL LUNES.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...20 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...50 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART




000
AXNT20 KNHC 310604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N29W TO 15N31W...TO A
1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N32W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 32W AND 34W...AND FROM
12N TO 13N BETWEEN 36W AND 37W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N50W 14N49W 10N48W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 41W AND
43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N
BETWEEN 45W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N60W 14N62W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W.

A TROPICAL WAVE RUNS THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO EL
SALVADOR. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...AND FROM WESTERN HONDURAS...INTO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 9N20W 10N35W 8N41W AND 9N51W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 9N51W TO 9N57W AND 8N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN CENTRAL TEXAS. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 28N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 83W AND 84W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LINE FROM 25N81W 24N87W 20N96W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 21N97W 24N90W 25N83W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA...THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO THE COAST FOR THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KXTH...KCRH...KBVE...KDLP...KGHB...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PALACIOS TEXAS.
LIGHT RAIN IS IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR TEXAS...AND IN
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE FOUND
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE
IN PERRY FLORIDA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE 24 HOUR FORECAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG
90W TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 21.5N TO 23N
BETWEEN 87W AND 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD...ILL-DEFINED...AND DISORGANIZED MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.73 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...AND 0.11 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND NORTHERN COSTA RICA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8
FEET FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. EXPECT ALSO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF
78W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 12N TO 16N
BETWEEN 68W AND 76W.

...HISPANIOLA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N63W TO A 24N69W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE
WEST CENTRAL SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MOVING
AROUND THE 24N69W CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 62W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 32N55W 27N62W 24N67W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N
TO 23N BETWEEN 62W AND 72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO
HAITI. THIS INCLUDES PRECIPITATION IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS...AND ONE REPORT OF SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ISLAND. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE FOUND IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROUGH
WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL BE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF
THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE TIME. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
36 TO 42 HOURS. A RIDGE EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT....THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 14N W OF 78W. A
SECOND AREA OF CONERN CONSISTS OF...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9
FEET...FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 31N/32N BETWEEN
60W AND 72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE ARE TO THE NORTH OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 31N67W BEYOND 32N75W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N37W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 27N38W AND 22N40W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 27N TO 34N BETWEEN 32N
AND 50W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 27N TO 29N
BETWEEN 51W AND 53W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 35N17W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N25W...TO 29N34W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N52W...TO 29N67W AND BEYOND
32N80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 24-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF
21N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 310604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N29W TO 15N31W...TO A
1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N32W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 32W AND 34W...AND FROM
12N TO 13N BETWEEN 36W AND 37W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N50W 14N49W 10N48W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 41W AND
43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N
BETWEEN 45W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N60W 14N62W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W.

A TROPICAL WAVE RUNS THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO EL
SALVADOR. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...AND FROM WESTERN HONDURAS...INTO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 9N20W 10N35W 8N41W AND 9N51W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 9N51W TO 9N57W AND 8N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN CENTRAL TEXAS. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 28N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 83W AND 84W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LINE FROM 25N81W 24N87W 20N96W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 21N97W 24N90W 25N83W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA...THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO THE COAST FOR THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KXTH...KCRH...KBVE...KDLP...KGHB...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PALACIOS TEXAS.
LIGHT RAIN IS IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR TEXAS...AND IN
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE FOUND
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE
IN PERRY FLORIDA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE 24 HOUR FORECAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG
90W TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 21.5N TO 23N
BETWEEN 87W AND 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD...ILL-DEFINED...AND DISORGANIZED MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.73 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...AND 0.11 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND NORTHERN COSTA RICA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8
FEET FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. EXPECT ALSO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF
78W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 12N TO 16N
BETWEEN 68W AND 76W.

...HISPANIOLA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N63W TO A 24N69W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE
WEST CENTRAL SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MOVING
AROUND THE 24N69W CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 62W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 32N55W 27N62W 24N67W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N
TO 23N BETWEEN 62W AND 72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO
HAITI. THIS INCLUDES PRECIPITATION IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS...AND ONE REPORT OF SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ISLAND. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE FOUND IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROUGH
WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL BE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF
THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE TIME. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
36 TO 42 HOURS. A RIDGE EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT....THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 14N W OF 78W. A
SECOND AREA OF CONERN CONSISTS OF...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9
FEET...FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 31N/32N BETWEEN
60W AND 72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE ARE TO THE NORTH OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 31N67W BEYOND 32N75W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N37W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 27N38W AND 22N40W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 27N TO 34N BETWEEN 32N
AND 50W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 27N TO 29N
BETWEEN 51W AND 53W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 35N17W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N25W...TO 29N34W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N52W...TO 29N67W AND BEYOND
32N80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 24-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF
21N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
ACPN50 PHFO 310555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SAT AUG 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

$$

KINEL




000
ACPN50 PHFO 310555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SAT AUG 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

$$

KINEL




000
ACPN50 PHFO 310555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SAT AUG 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

$$

KINEL




000
ACPN50 PHFO 310555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SAT AUG 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

$$

KINEL




000
ABNT20 KNHC 310546
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. Land interaction will limit significant development while the
disturbance moves across the Yucatan peninsula today and tonight.
However, environmental conditions are expected to be become
marginally conducive for some gradual development once the system
moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 310546
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. Land interaction will limit significant development while the
disturbance moves across the Yucatan peninsula today and tonight.
However, environmental conditions are expected to be become
marginally conducive for some gradual development once the system
moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 310546
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. Land interaction will limit significant development while the
disturbance moves across the Yucatan peninsula today and tonight.
However, environmental conditions are expected to be become
marginally conducive for some gradual development once the system
moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABNT20 KNHC 310546
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. Land interaction will limit significant development while the
disturbance moves across the Yucatan peninsula today and tonight.
However, environmental conditions are expected to be become
marginally conducive for some gradual development once the system
moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 310530
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure could form early next week within a few
hundred miles offshore of the coast of south-central Mexico.  Some
slow development of this system is possible after this time while it
moves slowly northwestward close to the coast of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 310530
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure could form early next week within a few
hundred miles offshore of the coast of south-central Mexico.  Some
slow development of this system is possible after this time while it
moves slowly northwestward close to the coast of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310247
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC
AND WAS ALONG ABOUT 107W...EXTENDING FROM 08N TO 21N. THE WAVE
IS MOVING W AROUND 15 KT AND IS GRADUALLY MOVING INTO A DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT TO ITS W. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS
THUS OCCURRING TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS. AS THE WAVE MOVES WWD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AFTER ITS PASSAGE...AND BEGIN TO FUEL INCREASING
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND
MICHOACAN...LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THERE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N75W TO 12.5N95W TO 12.5N107W
TO 08N123W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO
BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 270 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 94W AND 113W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 90
NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 135W AND 139W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ALSO NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF COAST OF MEXICO
BETWEEN 97W AND 101W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1010 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...WAS CENTERED
NEAR 31.5N136W...MOVING W 10-15 KT. AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER
PASSES DEPICTED A BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS EXTENDING OUT 240
NM ACROSS THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER...WHICH CONTINUES TO
GENERATE MIXED WIND SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA WATERS N OF 27N W
OF 135W...WHERE SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...
WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING OVER
THE NW WATERS SUN AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MON.

A 1026 MB HIGH NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 41N158W EXTENDING
A NARROW RIDGE EASTWARD THROUGH 38N130W AND THEN CURVING S-SE
INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS TO 24N123W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO
HAD BEEN SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER THE LATEST
DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED
AND WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...WHERE SEAS AREA NOW 5-6 FT.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO MOVE W-NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SW
FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS WELL
TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING
TO 8-9 FT FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 104W AND
120W.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310247
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC
AND WAS ALONG ABOUT 107W...EXTENDING FROM 08N TO 21N. THE WAVE
IS MOVING W AROUND 15 KT AND IS GRADUALLY MOVING INTO A DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT TO ITS W. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS
THUS OCCURRING TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS. AS THE WAVE MOVES WWD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AFTER ITS PASSAGE...AND BEGIN TO FUEL INCREASING
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND
MICHOACAN...LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THERE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N75W TO 12.5N95W TO 12.5N107W
TO 08N123W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO
BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 270 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 94W AND 113W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 90
NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 135W AND 139W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ALSO NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF COAST OF MEXICO
BETWEEN 97W AND 101W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1010 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...WAS CENTERED
NEAR 31.5N136W...MOVING W 10-15 KT. AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER
PASSES DEPICTED A BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS EXTENDING OUT 240
NM ACROSS THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER...WHICH CONTINUES TO
GENERATE MIXED WIND SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA WATERS N OF 27N W
OF 135W...WHERE SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...
WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING OVER
THE NW WATERS SUN AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MON.

A 1026 MB HIGH NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 41N158W EXTENDING
A NARROW RIDGE EASTWARD THROUGH 38N130W AND THEN CURVING S-SE
INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS TO 24N123W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO
HAD BEEN SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER THE LATEST
DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED
AND WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...WHERE SEAS AREA NOW 5-6 FT.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO MOVE W-NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SW
FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS WELL
TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING
TO 8-9 FT FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 104W AND
120W.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310247
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC
AND WAS ALONG ABOUT 107W...EXTENDING FROM 08N TO 21N. THE WAVE
IS MOVING W AROUND 15 KT AND IS GRADUALLY MOVING INTO A DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT TO ITS W. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS
THUS OCCURRING TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS. AS THE WAVE MOVES WWD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AFTER ITS PASSAGE...AND BEGIN TO FUEL INCREASING
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND
MICHOACAN...LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THERE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N75W TO 12.5N95W TO 12.5N107W
TO 08N123W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO
BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 270 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 94W AND 113W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 90
NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 135W AND 139W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ALSO NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF COAST OF MEXICO
BETWEEN 97W AND 101W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1010 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...WAS CENTERED
NEAR 31.5N136W...MOVING W 10-15 KT. AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER
PASSES DEPICTED A BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS EXTENDING OUT 240
NM ACROSS THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER...WHICH CONTINUES TO
GENERATE MIXED WIND SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA WATERS N OF 27N W
OF 135W...WHERE SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...
WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING OVER
THE NW WATERS SUN AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MON.

A 1026 MB HIGH NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 41N158W EXTENDING
A NARROW RIDGE EASTWARD THROUGH 38N130W AND THEN CURVING S-SE
INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS TO 24N123W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO
HAD BEEN SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER THE LATEST
DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED
AND WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...WHERE SEAS AREA NOW 5-6 FT.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO MOVE W-NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SW
FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS WELL
TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING
TO 8-9 FT FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 104W AND
120W.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310247
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC
AND WAS ALONG ABOUT 107W...EXTENDING FROM 08N TO 21N. THE WAVE
IS MOVING W AROUND 15 KT AND IS GRADUALLY MOVING INTO A DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT TO ITS W. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS
THUS OCCURRING TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS. AS THE WAVE MOVES WWD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AFTER ITS PASSAGE...AND BEGIN TO FUEL INCREASING
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND
MICHOACAN...LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THERE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N75W TO 12.5N95W TO 12.5N107W
TO 08N123W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO
BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 270 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 94W AND 113W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 90
NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 135W AND 139W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ALSO NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF COAST OF MEXICO
BETWEEN 97W AND 101W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1010 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...WAS CENTERED
NEAR 31.5N136W...MOVING W 10-15 KT. AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER
PASSES DEPICTED A BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS EXTENDING OUT 240
NM ACROSS THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER...WHICH CONTINUES TO
GENERATE MIXED WIND SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA WATERS N OF 27N W
OF 135W...WHERE SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...
WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING OVER
THE NW WATERS SUN AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MON.

A 1026 MB HIGH NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 41N158W EXTENDING
A NARROW RIDGE EASTWARD THROUGH 38N130W AND THEN CURVING S-SE
INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS TO 24N123W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO
HAD BEEN SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER THE LATEST
DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED
AND WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...WHERE SEAS AREA NOW 5-6 FT.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO MOVE W-NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SW
FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS WELL
TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING
TO 8-9 FT FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 104W AND
120W.

$$
STRIPLING



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 302350
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT SABADO 30 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CONTINUA ASOCIADA CON UNA ONDA
TROPICAL SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. ES POSIBLE QUE LAS
INTERACCIONES DE TIERRA LIMITEN UN DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO MIENTRAS
EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN EL DOMINGO Y EL
DOMINGO EN LA NOCHE. SIN EMBARGO...LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SON
CONDUCENTES PARA QUE OCURRA UN DESARROLLO GRADUAL UNA VEZ EL SISTEMA
SE MUEVA SOBRE EL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO EL LUNES.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...20 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...40 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 302350
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT SABADO 30 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CONTINUA ASOCIADA CON UNA ONDA
TROPICAL SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. ES POSIBLE QUE LAS
INTERACCIONES DE TIERRA LIMITEN UN DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO MIENTRAS
EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN EL DOMINGO Y EL
DOMINGO EN LA NOCHE. SIN EMBARGO...LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SON
CONDUCENTES PARA QUE OCURRA UN DESARROLLO GRADUAL UNA VEZ EL SISTEMA
SE MUEVA SOBRE EL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO EL LUNES.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...20 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...40 POR
CIENTO.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN





000
AXNT20 KNHC 302348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N30W TO 20N26W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT BETWEEN
23W-34W AND MAXIMUM MOISTURE VALUES ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATERS
IMAGERY FROM 06N-16N BETWEEN 25W-31W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN 28W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N47W TO 18N45W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE HAS MOVED WEST OF A 1010 MB LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N43W WITH CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-
LEVEL CLOUD FIELD NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF
14N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN
41W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N59W TO 19N55W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH ALOFT
BETWEEN 50W-60W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N88W TO 22N85W MOVING W AT 20-25
KT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE WAVE NOTED ACROSS THE BASIN...IT
COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE REGION NEAR 20N74W TO SOUTHERN BELIZE NEAR 16N89W. MOST
OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN
81W-87W...WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 12N-
22N BETWEEN 78W-92W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
09N32W TO A 1012 LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N43W TO 08N48W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N48W TO
06N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN
34W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN GULF
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING BETWEEN
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 28N90W AND
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO BASE OVER THE TEXAS BIG BEND REGION NEAR 29N101W.
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT ALONG WITH S-SE RETURN FLOW AT THE
SURFACE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE BASIN IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NW OF A LINE FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR TUXPAN...
INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY... AND ALABAMA THIS EVENING. FARTHER SOUTHEAST...A
TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA INCLUDING
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REGION. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 23N BETWEEN 84W-
91W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PROVIDING DRY AND RELATIVELY STABLE
CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS
EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE VICINITY OF 27N82W.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE BEGINS TO
INFLUENCE THE SW GULF WATERS. GLOBAL MODEL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS WITH THE PRIMARY
IMPACT BEING INCREASED CONVECTION AND SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF
15 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 90W TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH
ATLC NEAR 25N69W SW TO OVER EASTERN CUBA TO 17N85W THAT
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE CONCENTRATION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
IS FOCUSED W OF 75W AND MORE SPECIFICALLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING ALONG 87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING FROM 13N-223N BETWEEN 78W-90W...INCLUDING COASTAL
CUBA AND INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS HISPANIOLA...THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE REGION...AND JAMAICA. FARTHER EAST...A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH 60W OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HOWEVER
EXHIBITS RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A LACK OF ANY DEEP
CONVECTION. IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE...LOW-LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN
60W-70W...AND ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 16N BETWEEN 61W-
66W THIS EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS W OF 70W
WERE NOTED ON EARLIER ASCAT PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE...AND AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W MOVES WEST
OVERNIGHT...THE STRONGER TRADES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY
S OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY OVER THE ISLAND...PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING NW OF THE ISLAND. WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
REMAINING IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE EAST ALSO CONTINUES TO ADVECT WESTWARD WITHIN
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS W OF 70W OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND SKIES THIS
EVENING. THE NE FLOW IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS NEAR 34N75W AND SUPPORTS A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
28N69W. TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 32N...A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N54W TO 32N72W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN
50W-66W. FURTHERMORE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SOUTH OF
THE SURFACE RIDGING NEAR 25N68W THAT CONTINUES TO ADVECT
MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 18N-27N
BETWEEN 60W-72W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N25W TO A
1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N43W TO THE AFOREMENTIONED 1023 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N69W. OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACCOMPANY THE
RIDGING...HOWEVER A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT DOES DIP INTO
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N33W EXTENDING SW TO 29N39W IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 302348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N30W TO 20N26W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT BETWEEN
23W-34W AND MAXIMUM MOISTURE VALUES ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATERS
IMAGERY FROM 06N-16N BETWEEN 25W-31W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN 28W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N47W TO 18N45W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE HAS MOVED WEST OF A 1010 MB LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N43W WITH CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-
LEVEL CLOUD FIELD NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF
14N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN
41W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N59W TO 19N55W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH ALOFT
BETWEEN 50W-60W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N88W TO 22N85W MOVING W AT 20-25
KT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE WAVE NOTED ACROSS THE BASIN...IT
COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE REGION NEAR 20N74W TO SOUTHERN BELIZE NEAR 16N89W. MOST
OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN
81W-87W...WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 12N-
22N BETWEEN 78W-92W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
09N32W TO A 1012 LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N43W TO 08N48W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N48W TO
06N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN
34W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN GULF
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING BETWEEN
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 28N90W AND
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO BASE OVER THE TEXAS BIG BEND REGION NEAR 29N101W.
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT ALONG WITH S-SE RETURN FLOW AT THE
SURFACE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE BASIN IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NW OF A LINE FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR TUXPAN...
INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY... AND ALABAMA THIS EVENING. FARTHER SOUTHEAST...A
TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA INCLUDING
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REGION. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 23N BETWEEN 84W-
91W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PROVIDING DRY AND RELATIVELY STABLE
CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS
EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE VICINITY OF 27N82W.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE BEGINS TO
INFLUENCE THE SW GULF WATERS. GLOBAL MODEL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS WITH THE PRIMARY
IMPACT BEING INCREASED CONVECTION AND SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF
15 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 90W TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH
ATLC NEAR 25N69W SW TO OVER EASTERN CUBA TO 17N85W THAT
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE CONCENTRATION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
IS FOCUSED W OF 75W AND MORE SPECIFICALLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING ALONG 87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING FROM 13N-223N BETWEEN 78W-90W...INCLUDING COASTAL
CUBA AND INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS HISPANIOLA...THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE REGION...AND JAMAICA. FARTHER EAST...A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH 60W OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HOWEVER
EXHIBITS RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A LACK OF ANY DEEP
CONVECTION. IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE...LOW-LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN
60W-70W...AND ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 16N BETWEEN 61W-
66W THIS EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS W OF 70W
WERE NOTED ON EARLIER ASCAT PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE...AND AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W MOVES WEST
OVERNIGHT...THE STRONGER TRADES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY
S OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY OVER THE ISLAND...PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING NW OF THE ISLAND. WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
REMAINING IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE EAST ALSO CONTINUES TO ADVECT WESTWARD WITHIN
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS W OF 70W OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND SKIES THIS
EVENING. THE NE FLOW IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS NEAR 34N75W AND SUPPORTS A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
28N69W. TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 32N...A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N54W TO 32N72W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN
50W-66W. FURTHERMORE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SOUTH OF
THE SURFACE RIDGING NEAR 25N68W THAT CONTINUES TO ADVECT
MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 18N-27N
BETWEEN 60W-72W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N25W TO A
1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N43W TO THE AFOREMENTIONED 1023 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N69W. OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACCOMPANY THE
RIDGING...HOWEVER A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT DOES DIP INTO
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N33W EXTENDING SW TO 29N39W IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
ACPN50 PHFO 302340
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SAT AUG 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

$$




000
ACPN50 PHFO 302340
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SAT AUG 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

$$





000
ABNT20 KNHC 302320
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. Land interaction will likely limit significant development
while the disturbance moves across the Yucatan peninsula Sunday and
Sunday night. However, environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for some gradual development once the system moves into
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ABNT20 KNHC 302320
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. Land interaction will likely limit significant development
while the disturbance moves across the Yucatan peninsula Sunday and
Sunday night. However, environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for some gradual development once the system moves into
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302315
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure could form early next week within a few
hundred miles offshore of the coast of south-central Mexico.  Some
slow development of this system is possible after this time while it
moves slowly northwestward close to the coast of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Landsea


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302157
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC
AND WAS ALONG ABOUT 105W...EXTENDING FROM 07N INTO THE COASTAL
STATES OF MEXICO. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AROUND 15 KT AND WAS
PROVIDING MOISTURE FOR MUCH OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS
THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO FROM 101W TO
106W. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WWD INTO A GRADUALLY DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...AS THIS OCCURS...THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AFTER ITS PASSAGE...AND BEGIN TO FUEL INCREASING
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND
MICHOACAN...LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THERE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N74W TO 12N95W TO
12.5N104W TO 08N122W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING
ON TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
WAS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 112W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210
NM S OF COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 94W AND 100W...AND WITHIN 240 NM
SW OF COAST BETWEEN 101W AND 106W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1009 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...WAS CENTERED
NEAR 31.5N135W...MOVING W-NW AROUND 10 KT. RECENT SCATTEROMETER
PASSES DEPICTED A BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS EXTENDING OUT 240
NM ACROSS THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER...WHICH CONTINUES TO
GENERATE MIXED WIND SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA WATERS W OF A
LINE FROM 30N132W TO 26N135W TO 25N140W...YIELDING SEAS 8 TO 10
FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY W TO SW DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND
SEAS DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING OVER THE NW WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO
EARLY MON.

A 1026 MB HIGH NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 41N158W EXTENDING
A NARROW RIDGE EASTWARD THROUGH 39N129W AND THEN CURVING S-SE
INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS TO 30N125W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO
HAD BEEN SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER THE LATEST
DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED
AND WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...WHERE SEAS AREA NOW 5-6 FT.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO THE W-NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SW
FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS WELL
TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING
TO 8-9 FT BY 48 HOURS FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 1115W.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302157
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC
AND WAS ALONG ABOUT 105W...EXTENDING FROM 07N INTO THE COASTAL
STATES OF MEXICO. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AROUND 15 KT AND WAS
PROVIDING MOISTURE FOR MUCH OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS
THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO FROM 101W TO
106W. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WWD INTO A GRADUALLY DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...AS THIS OCCURS...THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AFTER ITS PASSAGE...AND BEGIN TO FUEL INCREASING
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND
MICHOACAN...LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THERE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N74W TO 12N95W TO
12.5N104W TO 08N122W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING
ON TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
WAS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 112W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210
NM S OF COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 94W AND 100W...AND WITHIN 240 NM
SW OF COAST BETWEEN 101W AND 106W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1009 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...WAS CENTERED
NEAR 31.5N135W...MOVING W-NW AROUND 10 KT. RECENT SCATTEROMETER
PASSES DEPICTED A BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS EXTENDING OUT 240
NM ACROSS THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER...WHICH CONTINUES TO
GENERATE MIXED WIND SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA WATERS W OF A
LINE FROM 30N132W TO 26N135W TO 25N140W...YIELDING SEAS 8 TO 10
FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY W TO SW DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND
SEAS DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING OVER THE NW WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO
EARLY MON.

A 1026 MB HIGH NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 41N158W EXTENDING
A NARROW RIDGE EASTWARD THROUGH 39N129W AND THEN CURVING S-SE
INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS TO 30N125W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO
HAD BEEN SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER THE LATEST
DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED
AND WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...WHERE SEAS AREA NOW 5-6 FT.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO THE W-NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SW
FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS WELL
TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING
TO 8-9 FT BY 48 HOURS FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 1115W.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302157
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC
AND WAS ALONG ABOUT 105W...EXTENDING FROM 07N INTO THE COASTAL
STATES OF MEXICO. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AROUND 15 KT AND WAS
PROVIDING MOISTURE FOR MUCH OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS
THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO FROM 101W TO
106W. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WWD INTO A GRADUALLY DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...AS THIS OCCURS...THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AFTER ITS PASSAGE...AND BEGIN TO FUEL INCREASING
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND
MICHOACAN...LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THERE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N74W TO 12N95W TO
12.5N104W TO 08N122W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING
ON TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
WAS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 112W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210
NM S OF COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 94W AND 100W...AND WITHIN 240 NM
SW OF COAST BETWEEN 101W AND 106W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1009 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...WAS CENTERED
NEAR 31.5N135W...MOVING W-NW AROUND 10 KT. RECENT SCATTEROMETER
PASSES DEPICTED A BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS EXTENDING OUT 240
NM ACROSS THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER...WHICH CONTINUES TO
GENERATE MIXED WIND SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA WATERS W OF A
LINE FROM 30N132W TO 26N135W TO 25N140W...YIELDING SEAS 8 TO 10
FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY W TO SW DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND
SEAS DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING OVER THE NW WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO
EARLY MON.

A 1026 MB HIGH NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 41N158W EXTENDING
A NARROW RIDGE EASTWARD THROUGH 39N129W AND THEN CURVING S-SE
INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS TO 30N125W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO
HAD BEEN SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER THE LATEST
DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED
AND WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...WHERE SEAS AREA NOW 5-6 FT.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO THE W-NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SW
FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS WELL
TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING
TO 8-9 FT BY 48 HOURS FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 1115W.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302157
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC
AND WAS ALONG ABOUT 105W...EXTENDING FROM 07N INTO THE COASTAL
STATES OF MEXICO. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AROUND 15 KT AND WAS
PROVIDING MOISTURE FOR MUCH OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS
THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO FROM 101W TO
106W. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WWD INTO A GRADUALLY DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...AS THIS OCCURS...THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AFTER ITS PASSAGE...AND BEGIN TO FUEL INCREASING
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND
MICHOACAN...LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THERE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N74W TO 12N95W TO
12.5N104W TO 08N122W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING
ON TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
WAS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 112W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210
NM S OF COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 94W AND 100W...AND WITHIN 240 NM
SW OF COAST BETWEEN 101W AND 106W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1009 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...WAS CENTERED
NEAR 31.5N135W...MOVING W-NW AROUND 10 KT. RECENT SCATTEROMETER
PASSES DEPICTED A BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS EXTENDING OUT 240
NM ACROSS THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER...WHICH CONTINUES TO
GENERATE MIXED WIND SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA WATERS W OF A
LINE FROM 30N132W TO 26N135W TO 25N140W...YIELDING SEAS 8 TO 10
FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY W TO SW DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND
SEAS DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING OVER THE NW WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO
EARLY MON.

A 1026 MB HIGH NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 41N158W EXTENDING
A NARROW RIDGE EASTWARD THROUGH 39N129W AND THEN CURVING S-SE
INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS TO 30N125W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO
HAD BEEN SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER THE LATEST
DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED
AND WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...WHERE SEAS AREA NOW 5-6 FT.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO THE W-NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SW
FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS WELL
TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING
TO 8-9 FT BY 48 HOURS FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 1115W.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXNT20 KNHC 301753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
21N21W TO 9N24W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N44W TO 9N46W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 43W-47W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SE OF THE AXIS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 42W-45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N54W TO 10N57W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR IS N OF 13N. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 51W-60W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N84W TO 10N84W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE MAINLY SUPPORTING CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 76W-87W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO
8N30W TO 9N40W TO 9N50W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N50W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N61W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 33W-37W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 26W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST INLAND FROM S LOUISIANA AT 30N92W TO E
TEXAS AT 30N95W TO S TEXAS AT 27N98W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO N OF 22N W OF
90W. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER S TEXAS
NEAR 21N87W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF
NEAR 29N87W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE N YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR W GULF W OF
95W...AND THE NE GULF N OF 28N TO INCLUDE THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
ALSO EXPECT A TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT CONVECTION OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA DOMINATING THE
WEATHER. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 60W-66W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA S
OF 10N BETWEEN 78W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W
AND CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION TO PERSIST
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS PARTIALLY DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW N OF THE S BAHAMAS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND W ATLANTIC N OF 25N
AND W OF 77W. A COLD FRONT IS JUST N OF THE AREA OVER THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 32N60W TO 32N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 27N55W. ANOTHER 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
32N26W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 25N70W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NE OF THE
CENTER. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N38W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 301753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
21N21W TO 9N24W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N44W TO 9N46W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 43W-47W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SE OF THE AXIS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 42W-45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N54W TO 10N57W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR IS N OF 13N. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 51W-60W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N84W TO 10N84W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE MAINLY SUPPORTING CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 76W-87W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO
8N30W TO 9N40W TO 9N50W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N50W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N61W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 33W-37W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 26W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST INLAND FROM S LOUISIANA AT 30N92W TO E
TEXAS AT 30N95W TO S TEXAS AT 27N98W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO N OF 22N W OF
90W. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER S TEXAS
NEAR 21N87W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF
NEAR 29N87W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE N YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR W GULF W OF
95W...AND THE NE GULF N OF 28N TO INCLUDE THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
ALSO EXPECT A TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT CONVECTION OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA DOMINATING THE
WEATHER. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 60W-66W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA S
OF 10N BETWEEN 78W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W
AND CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION TO PERSIST
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS PARTIALLY DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW N OF THE S BAHAMAS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND W ATLANTIC N OF 25N
AND W OF 77W. A COLD FRONT IS JUST N OF THE AREA OVER THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 32N60W TO 32N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 27N55W. ANOTHER 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
32N26W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 25N70W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NE OF THE
CENTER. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N38W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 301753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
21N21W TO 9N24W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N44W TO 9N46W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 43W-47W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SE OF THE AXIS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 42W-45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N54W TO 10N57W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR IS N OF 13N. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 51W-60W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N84W TO 10N84W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE MAINLY SUPPORTING CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 76W-87W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO
8N30W TO 9N40W TO 9N50W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N50W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N61W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 33W-37W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 26W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST INLAND FROM S LOUISIANA AT 30N92W TO E
TEXAS AT 30N95W TO S TEXAS AT 27N98W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO N OF 22N W OF
90W. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER S TEXAS
NEAR 21N87W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF
NEAR 29N87W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE N YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR W GULF W OF
95W...AND THE NE GULF N OF 28N TO INCLUDE THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
ALSO EXPECT A TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT CONVECTION OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA DOMINATING THE
WEATHER. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 60W-66W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA S
OF 10N BETWEEN 78W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W
AND CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION TO PERSIST
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS PARTIALLY DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW N OF THE S BAHAMAS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND W ATLANTIC N OF 25N
AND W OF 77W. A COLD FRONT IS JUST N OF THE AREA OVER THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 32N60W TO 32N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 27N55W. ANOTHER 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
32N26W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 25N70W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NE OF THE
CENTER. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N38W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 301753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
21N21W TO 9N24W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N44W TO 9N46W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 43W-47W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SE OF THE AXIS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 42W-45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N54W TO 10N57W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR IS N OF 13N. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 51W-60W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N84W TO 10N84W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE MAINLY SUPPORTING CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 76W-87W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO
8N30W TO 9N40W TO 9N50W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N50W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N61W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 33W-37W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 26W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST INLAND FROM S LOUISIANA AT 30N92W TO E
TEXAS AT 30N95W TO S TEXAS AT 27N98W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO N OF 22N W OF
90W. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER S TEXAS
NEAR 21N87W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF
NEAR 29N87W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE N YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR W GULF W OF
95W...AND THE NE GULF N OF 28N TO INCLUDE THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
ALSO EXPECT A TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT CONVECTION OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA DOMINATING THE
WEATHER. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 60W-66W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA S
OF 10N BETWEEN 78W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W
AND CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION TO PERSIST
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS PARTIALLY DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW N OF THE S BAHAMAS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND W ATLANTIC N OF 25N
AND W OF 77W. A COLD FRONT IS JUST N OF THE AREA OVER THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 32N60W TO 32N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 27N55W. ANOTHER 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
32N26W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 25N70W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NE OF THE
CENTER. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N38W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
ACPN50 PHFO 301740
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SAT AUG 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

$$





000
ACPN50 PHFO 301740
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SAT AUG 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

$$






000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301738
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT SABADO 30 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CONTINUA ASOCIADA A
UNA ONDA TROPICAL SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. SE ESPERA QUE
LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS SE TORNEN MAS FAVORABLES DURANTE
LOS PROXIMOS DIAS...PERO LA INTERACCION CON TIERRA LIMITARA EL
DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO A MEDIDA QUE EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA A TRAVES
DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN EL DOMINGO. SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES ESTEN CONDUCENTES PARA ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL UNA VEZ
EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA HACIA EL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO EL LUNES.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...40 POR
CIENTO.

$$
PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301738
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT SABADO 30 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CONTINUA ASOCIADA A
UNA ONDA TROPICAL SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. SE ESPERA QUE
LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS SE TORNEN MAS FAVORABLES DURANTE
LOS PROXIMOS DIAS...PERO LA INTERACCION CON TIERRA LIMITARA EL
DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO A MEDIDA QUE EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA A TRAVES
DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN EL DOMINGO. SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES ESTEN CONDUCENTES PARA ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL UNA VEZ
EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA HACIA EL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO EL LUNES.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...40 POR
CIENTO.

$$
PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301738
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT SABADO 30 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CONTINUA ASOCIADA A
UNA ONDA TROPICAL SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. SE ESPERA QUE
LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS SE TORNEN MAS FAVORABLES DURANTE
LOS PROXIMOS DIAS...PERO LA INTERACCION CON TIERRA LIMITARA EL
DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO A MEDIDA QUE EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA A TRAVES
DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN EL DOMINGO. SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES ESTEN CONDUCENTES PARA ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL UNA VEZ
EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA HACIA EL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO EL LUNES.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...40 POR
CIENTO.

$$
PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN




000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301738
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT SABADO 30 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CONTINUA ASOCIADA A
UNA ONDA TROPICAL SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. SE ESPERA QUE
LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS SE TORNEN MAS FAVORABLES DURANTE
LOS PROXIMOS DIAS...PERO LA INTERACCION CON TIERRA LIMITARA EL
DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO A MEDIDA QUE EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA A TRAVES
DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN EL DOMINGO. SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES ESTEN CONDUCENTES PARA ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL UNA VEZ
EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA HACIA EL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO EL LUNES.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...40 POR
CIENTO.

$$
PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN




000
ABNT20 KNHC 301735
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea.  Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive during
the next couple of days, but land interaction will likely limit
significant development while the disturbance moves across the
Yucatan peninsula Sunday and Sunday night. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some gradual development once the
system moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ABNT20 KNHC 301735
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea.  Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive during
the next couple of days, but land interaction will likely limit
significant development while the disturbance moves across the
Yucatan peninsula Sunday and Sunday night. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some gradual development once the
system moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ABNT20 KNHC 301735
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea.  Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive during
the next couple of days, but land interaction will likely limit
significant development while the disturbance moves across the
Yucatan peninsula Sunday and Sunday night. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some gradual development once the
system moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ABNT20 KNHC 301735
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea.  Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive during
the next couple of days, but land interaction will likely limit
significant development while the disturbance moves across the
Yucatan peninsula Sunday and Sunday night. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some gradual development once the
system moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301733
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure could form early next week within a few
hundred miles offshore of the coast of south-central Mexico.  Some
slow development of this system is possible after this time while it
moves slowly northwestward close to the coast of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Kimberlain



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301733
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure could form early next week within a few
hundred miles offshore of the coast of south-central Mexico.  Some
slow development of this system is possible after this time while it
moves slowly northwestward close to the coast of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Kimberlain



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301733
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure could form early next week within a few
hundred miles offshore of the coast of south-central Mexico.  Some
slow development of this system is possible after this time while it
moves slowly northwestward close to the coast of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Kimberlain



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301733
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure could form early next week within a few
hundred miles offshore of the coast of south-central Mexico.  Some
slow development of this system is possible after this time while it
moves slowly northwestward close to the coast of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Kimberlain



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301453
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM OVER MEXICO INTO THE REGION NEAR
17N100W TO 11N101W MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO TRACK DURING THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 12N94W TO
09N119W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N119W TO 08N138W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM SW OF A LINE FROM 07N90W TO 09N95W...AND ALSO A LINE FROM
09N97W TO 10N110W.

SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150
NM SW OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 88W AND 100W...AND WITHIN
180 NM BETWEEN 104W AND 108W. THIS CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS ON FRI AND THEN PROPAGATED OFFSHORE.

...DISCUSSION...

1006 MB LOW PRES...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...IS POSITIONED NEAR
31N134W. OVERNIGHT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES
SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW
N OF 28N BETWEEN 134W AND 139W WHERE SEAS ARE UP TO 10-12 FT IN
A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. THE LOW WILL NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS WITH A WESTWARD DRIFT EXPECTED. AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD
IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING OVER THE NW WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO
EARLY MON.

A 1025 MB HIGH HAS REFORMED TO THE NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 40N160W EXTENDING A NARROW RIDGE EASTWARD THROUGH 40N130W
AND THEN CURVING SE INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS TO 30N126W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING ALONG THE NW
PORTION OF MEXICO HAS BEEN SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
HOWEVER THE LATEST DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE
GRADIENT HAS RELAXED ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO
FRESH LEVELS. AS THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...SO HAVE THE SEAS
WHICH ARE NOW 6-7 FT IN THIS AREA.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO THE W-NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SW
FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS WELL
TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING
TO 8-9 FT BY 48 HOURS FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 109W.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301453
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM OVER MEXICO INTO THE REGION NEAR
17N100W TO 11N101W MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO TRACK DURING THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 12N94W TO
09N119W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N119W TO 08N138W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM SW OF A LINE FROM 07N90W TO 09N95W...AND ALSO A LINE FROM
09N97W TO 10N110W.

SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150
NM SW OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 88W AND 100W...AND WITHIN
180 NM BETWEEN 104W AND 108W. THIS CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS ON FRI AND THEN PROPAGATED OFFSHORE.

...DISCUSSION...

1006 MB LOW PRES...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...IS POSITIONED NEAR
31N134W. OVERNIGHT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES
SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW
N OF 28N BETWEEN 134W AND 139W WHERE SEAS ARE UP TO 10-12 FT IN
A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. THE LOW WILL NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS WITH A WESTWARD DRIFT EXPECTED. AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD
IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING OVER THE NW WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO
EARLY MON.

A 1025 MB HIGH HAS REFORMED TO THE NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 40N160W EXTENDING A NARROW RIDGE EASTWARD THROUGH 40N130W
AND THEN CURVING SE INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS TO 30N126W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING ALONG THE NW
PORTION OF MEXICO HAS BEEN SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
HOWEVER THE LATEST DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE
GRADIENT HAS RELAXED ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO
FRESH LEVELS. AS THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...SO HAVE THE SEAS
WHICH ARE NOW 6-7 FT IN THIS AREA.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO THE W-NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SW
FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS WELL
TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING
TO 8-9 FT BY 48 HOURS FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 109W.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301453
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM OVER MEXICO INTO THE REGION NEAR
17N100W TO 11N101W MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO TRACK DURING THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 12N94W TO
09N119W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N119W TO 08N138W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM SW OF A LINE FROM 07N90W TO 09N95W...AND ALSO A LINE FROM
09N97W TO 10N110W.

SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150
NM SW OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 88W AND 100W...AND WITHIN
180 NM BETWEEN 104W AND 108W. THIS CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS ON FRI AND THEN PROPAGATED OFFSHORE.

...DISCUSSION...

1006 MB LOW PRES...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...IS POSITIONED NEAR
31N134W. OVERNIGHT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES
SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW
N OF 28N BETWEEN 134W AND 139W WHERE SEAS ARE UP TO 10-12 FT IN
A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. THE LOW WILL NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS WITH A WESTWARD DRIFT EXPECTED. AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD
IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING OVER THE NW WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO
EARLY MON.

A 1025 MB HIGH HAS REFORMED TO THE NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 40N160W EXTENDING A NARROW RIDGE EASTWARD THROUGH 40N130W
AND THEN CURVING SE INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS TO 30N126W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING ALONG THE NW
PORTION OF MEXICO HAS BEEN SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
HOWEVER THE LATEST DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE
GRADIENT HAS RELAXED ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO
FRESH LEVELS. AS THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...SO HAVE THE SEAS
WHICH ARE NOW 6-7 FT IN THIS AREA.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO THE W-NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SW
FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS WELL
TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING
TO 8-9 FT BY 48 HOURS FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 109W.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301453
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM OVER MEXICO INTO THE REGION NEAR
17N100W TO 11N101W MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO TRACK DURING THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 12N94W TO
09N119W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N119W TO 08N138W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM SW OF A LINE FROM 07N90W TO 09N95W...AND ALSO A LINE FROM
09N97W TO 10N110W.

SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150
NM SW OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 88W AND 100W...AND WITHIN
180 NM BETWEEN 104W AND 108W. THIS CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS ON FRI AND THEN PROPAGATED OFFSHORE.

...DISCUSSION...

1006 MB LOW PRES...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...IS POSITIONED NEAR
31N134W. OVERNIGHT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES
SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW
N OF 28N BETWEEN 134W AND 139W WHERE SEAS ARE UP TO 10-12 FT IN
A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. THE LOW WILL NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS WITH A WESTWARD DRIFT EXPECTED. AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD
IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING OVER THE NW WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO
EARLY MON.

A 1025 MB HIGH HAS REFORMED TO THE NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 40N160W EXTENDING A NARROW RIDGE EASTWARD THROUGH 40N130W
AND THEN CURVING SE INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS TO 30N126W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING ALONG THE NW
PORTION OF MEXICO HAS BEEN SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
HOWEVER THE LATEST DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE
GRADIENT HAS RELAXED ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO
FRESH LEVELS. AS THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...SO HAVE THE SEAS
WHICH ARE NOW 6-7 FT IN THIS AREA.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO THE W-NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SW
FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS WELL
TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING
TO 8-9 FT BY 48 HOURS FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 109W.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301235
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT SABADO 30 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CONTINUA ASOCIADA A
UNA ONDA TROPICAL SOBRE EL OESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. SE ESPERA QUE LOS
VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS SE TORNEN MAS FAVORABLES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS DIAS...PERO LA INTERACCION CON TIERRA LIMITARA EL
DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO A MEDIDA QUE EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA A TRAVES
DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN EL DOMINGO. SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES ESTEN CONDUCENTES PARA ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL UNA VEZ
EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA HACIA EL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO EL LUNES.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...40 POR
CIENTO.

$$
PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 301235
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT SABADO 30 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CONTINUA ASOCIADA A
UNA ONDA TROPICAL SOBRE EL OESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. SE ESPERA QUE LOS
VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS SE TORNEN MAS FAVORABLES DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS DIAS...PERO LA INTERACCION CON TIERRA LIMITARA EL
DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO A MEDIDA QUE EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA A TRAVES
DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN EL DOMINGO. SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES
AMBIENTALES ESTEN CONDUCENTES PARA ALGUN DESARROLLO GRADUAL UNA VEZ
EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA HACIA EL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO EL LUNES.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...40 POR
CIENTO.

$$
PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN




000
ACPN50 PHFO 301155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SAT AUG 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

$$

POWELL














000
ACPN50 PHFO 301155
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SAT AUG 30 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

$$

POWELL













000
ABNT20 KNHC 301141
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea.
Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive during the
next couple of days, but land interaction will likely limit
significant development while the disturbance moves across the
Yucatan peninsula Sunday and Sunday night. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some gradual development once the
system moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven




000
ABNT20 KNHC 301141
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea.
Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive during the
next couple of days, but land interaction will likely limit
significant development while the disturbance moves across the
Yucatan peninsula Sunday and Sunday night. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some gradual development once the
system moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301116
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301116
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



000
AXNT20 KNHC 301114
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N21W 16N23W 10N24W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 24W
AND 28W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N
BETWEEN 41W AND 43W...AND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN
43W AND 46W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N52W 14N54W 10N56W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 50W AND 64W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N81W IN CUBA...TO
16N82W...AND 10N82W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...ABOUT 130 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FROM 15N TO
20N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...TO THE EAST OF THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N
NORTHWARD FROM 74W WESTWARD...IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

A GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W/98W FROM 22N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS ACROSS MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 21N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 94W AND 96W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 9N20W 10N35W 8N41W AND 9N51W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 9N51W TO 9N57W AND 8N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN EAST TEXAS. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N NORTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ALSO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W/98W FROM 22N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS ACROSS MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 21N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 94W AND 96W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KMZG...KBBF...KCRH...KVQT...KGHB...AND KDLP. MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KBQX...KXIH...KVAF...KEMK...

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER COVER
THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...AND THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.
HEAVY RAIN...WITH THUNDER...IS BEING OBSERVED IN BEAUMONT TEXAS.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER GULF SHORES ALABAMA. VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES TO 3 MILES
WITH FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN MARIANNA AND TALLAHASSEE IN
FLORIDA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT..THE 24 HOUR FORECAST OF AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE THAT
CURRENTLY IS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET
FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 90W AND 92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N81W IN CUBA...TO
16N82W...AND 10N82W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...ABOUT 130 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FROM 15N TO
20N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...TO THE EAST OF THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N
NORTHWARD FROM 74W WESTWARD...IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROAD...ILL-DEFINED...AND DISORGANIZED MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W
WESTWARD. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.36 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 12N SOUTHWARD FROM 79W WESTWARD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 22N81W TO 11N82W MOVING W 20 KT.
S OF 18N W OF 77W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AN
SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET.

...HISPANIOLA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM TO A 25N68W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 15N77W...
TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...MOVING AROUND THE 25N68W CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE
AREA FROM 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 25N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 60W AND 74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AROUND THE 25N68W CYCLONIC CENTER...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE AREAS OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO
DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING COVER LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA.
FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER
SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING COVER PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROUGH
WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL BE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF
THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE TIME. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
36 TO 42 HOURS. A RIDGE EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM HAITI TO COLOMBIA ALONG 72W...
MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 15N
BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 72W AND
75W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 31N/32N BETWEEN
60W AND 72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE ARE TO THE NORTH OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 31N67W BEYOND 32N75W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N37W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 27N38W AND 22N40W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 27N TO 34N BETWEEN 32N
AND 50W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 27N TO 29N
BETWEEN 51W AND 53W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 35N17W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N25W...TO 29N34W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N52W...TO 29N67W AND BEYOND
32N80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 301114
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N21W 16N23W 10N24W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 24W
AND 28W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N
BETWEEN 41W AND 43W...AND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN
43W AND 46W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N52W 14N54W 10N56W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 50W AND 64W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N81W IN CUBA...TO
16N82W...AND 10N82W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...ABOUT 130 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FROM 15N TO
20N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...TO THE EAST OF THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N
NORTHWARD FROM 74W WESTWARD...IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

A GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W/98W FROM 22N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS ACROSS MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 21N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 94W AND 96W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 9N20W 10N35W 8N41W AND 9N51W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 9N51W TO 9N57W AND 8N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN EAST TEXAS. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N NORTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ALSO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W/98W FROM 22N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS ACROSS MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 21N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 94W AND 96W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KMZG...KBBF...KCRH...KVQT...KGHB...AND KDLP. MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KBQX...KXIH...KVAF...KEMK...

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER COVER
THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...AND THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.
HEAVY RAIN...WITH THUNDER...IS BEING OBSERVED IN BEAUMONT TEXAS.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER GULF SHORES ALABAMA. VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES TO 3 MILES
WITH FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN MARIANNA AND TALLAHASSEE IN
FLORIDA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT..THE 24 HOUR FORECAST OF AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE THAT
CURRENTLY IS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET
FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 90W AND 92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N81W IN CUBA...TO
16N82W...AND 10N82W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...ABOUT 130 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FROM 15N TO
20N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...TO THE EAST OF THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N
NORTHWARD FROM 74W WESTWARD...IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROAD...ILL-DEFINED...AND DISORGANIZED MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W
WESTWARD. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.36 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 12N SOUTHWARD FROM 79W WESTWARD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 22N81W TO 11N82W MOVING W 20 KT.
S OF 18N W OF 77W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AN
SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET.

...HISPANIOLA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM TO A 25N68W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 15N77W...
TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...MOVING AROUND THE 25N68W CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE
AREA FROM 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 25N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 60W AND 74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AROUND THE 25N68W CYCLONIC CENTER...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE AREAS OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO
DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING COVER LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA.
FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER
SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING COVER PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROUGH
WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL BE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF
THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE TIME. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
36 TO 42 HOURS. A RIDGE EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM HAITI TO COLOMBIA ALONG 72W...
MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 15N
BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 72W AND
75W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 31N/32N BETWEEN
60W AND 72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE ARE TO THE NORTH OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 31N67W BEYOND 32N75W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N37W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 27N38W AND 22N40W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 27N TO 34N BETWEEN 32N
AND 50W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 27N TO 29N
BETWEEN 51W AND 53W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 35N17W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N25W...TO 29N34W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N52W...TO 29N67W AND BEYOND
32N80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 301114
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N21W 16N23W 10N24W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 24W
AND 28W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N
BETWEEN 41W AND 43W...AND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN
43W AND 46W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N52W 14N54W 10N56W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 50W AND 64W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N81W IN CUBA...TO
16N82W...AND 10N82W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...ABOUT 130 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FROM 15N TO
20N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...TO THE EAST OF THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N
NORTHWARD FROM 74W WESTWARD...IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

A GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W/98W FROM 22N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS ACROSS MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 21N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 94W AND 96W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 9N20W 10N35W 8N41W AND 9N51W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 9N51W TO 9N57W AND 8N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN EAST TEXAS. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N NORTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ALSO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W/98W FROM 22N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS ACROSS MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 21N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 94W AND 96W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KMZG...KBBF...KCRH...KVQT...KGHB...AND KDLP. MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KBQX...KXIH...KVAF...KEMK...

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER COVER
THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...AND THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.
HEAVY RAIN...WITH THUNDER...IS BEING OBSERVED IN BEAUMONT TEXAS.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER GULF SHORES ALABAMA. VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES TO 3 MILES
WITH FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN MARIANNA AND TALLAHASSEE IN
FLORIDA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT..THE 24 HOUR FORECAST OF AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE THAT
CURRENTLY IS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET
FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 90W AND 92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N81W IN CUBA...TO
16N82W...AND 10N82W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...ABOUT 130 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FROM 15N TO
20N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...TO THE EAST OF THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N
NORTHWARD FROM 74W WESTWARD...IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROAD...ILL-DEFINED...AND DISORGANIZED MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W
WESTWARD. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.36 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 12N SOUTHWARD FROM 79W WESTWARD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 22N81W TO 11N82W MOVING W 20 KT.
S OF 18N W OF 77W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AN
SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET.

...HISPANIOLA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM TO A 25N68W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 15N77W...
TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...MOVING AROUND THE 25N68W CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE
AREA FROM 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 25N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 60W AND 74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AROUND THE 25N68W CYCLONIC CENTER...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE AREAS OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO
DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING COVER LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA.
FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER
SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING COVER PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROUGH
WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL BE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF
THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE TIME. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
36 TO 42 HOURS. A RIDGE EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM HAITI TO COLOMBIA ALONG 72W...
MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 15N
BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 72W AND
75W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 31N/32N BETWEEN
60W AND 72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE ARE TO THE NORTH OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 31N67W BEYOND 32N75W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N37W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 27N38W AND 22N40W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 27N TO 34N BETWEEN 32N
AND 50W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 27N TO 29N
BETWEEN 51W AND 53W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 35N17W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N25W...TO 29N34W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N52W...TO 29N67W AND BEYOND
32N80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 301114
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N21W 16N23W 10N24W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 24W
AND 28W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N
BETWEEN 41W AND 43W...AND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN
43W AND 46W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N52W 14N54W 10N56W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 50W AND 64W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N81W IN CUBA...TO
16N82W...AND 10N82W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...ABOUT 130 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FROM 15N TO
20N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...TO THE EAST OF THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N
NORTHWARD FROM 74W WESTWARD...IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

A GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W/98W FROM 22N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS ACROSS MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 21N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 94W AND 96W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 9N20W 10N35W 8N41W AND 9N51W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 9N51W TO 9N57W AND 8N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN EAST TEXAS. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N NORTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ALSO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W/98W FROM 22N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS ACROSS MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 21N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 94W AND 96W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KMZG...KBBF...KCRH...KVQT...KGHB...AND KDLP. MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KBQX...KXIH...KVAF...KEMK...

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER COVER
THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...AND THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.
HEAVY RAIN...WITH THUNDER...IS BEING OBSERVED IN BEAUMONT TEXAS.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER GULF SHORES ALABAMA. VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES TO 3 MILES
WITH FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN MARIANNA AND TALLAHASSEE IN
FLORIDA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT..THE 24 HOUR FORECAST OF AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE THAT
CURRENTLY IS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET
FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 90W AND 92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N81W IN CUBA...TO
16N82W...AND 10N82W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...ABOUT 130 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FROM 15N TO
20N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...TO THE EAST OF THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N
NORTHWARD FROM 74W WESTWARD...IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROAD...ILL-DEFINED...AND DISORGANIZED MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W
WESTWARD. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.36 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 12N SOUTHWARD FROM 79W WESTWARD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 22N81W TO 11N82W MOVING W 20 KT.
S OF 18N W OF 77W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AN
SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET.

...HISPANIOLA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM TO A 25N68W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 15N77W...
TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...MOVING AROUND THE 25N68W CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE
AREA FROM 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 25N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 60W AND 74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AROUND THE 25N68W CYCLONIC CENTER...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE AREAS OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO
DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING COVER LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA.
FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER
SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING COVER PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROUGH
WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL BE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF
THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE TIME. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
36 TO 42 HOURS. A RIDGE EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM HAITI TO COLOMBIA ALONG 72W...
MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 15N
BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 72W AND
75W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 31N/32N BETWEEN
60W AND 72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE ARE TO THE NORTH OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 31N67W BEYOND 32N75W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N37W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 27N38W AND 22N40W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 27N TO 34N BETWEEN 32N
AND 50W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 27N TO 29N
BETWEEN 51W AND 53W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 35N17W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N25W...TO 29N34W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N52W...TO 29N67W AND BEYOND
32N80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300856
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0815 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
NONE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM OVER MEXICO INTO THE REGION NEAR
15N98W TO 12N99W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO
TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND
ENERGY HAS SHIFTED W-NW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N99W ALONG 11N109W TO
10N117W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 8N128W. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM
21N106W TO 19N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 18N E OF 109W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90 NM ALONG COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 87W-98W AND FROM 7N-
10N BETWEEN 93W-111W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANTS OF MARIE IS A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N135W. A
SHALLOW STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IS STILL SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
TONIGHT WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION IS
WELL N OF THE REGION. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT JUST ALONG THE N BORDER MAINLY WEST OF THE
LOW CENTER. THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT W-NW THEN W
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS HOVERING ALONG 31N BEFORE DISSIPATING
LATE TUE. ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR
LESS AND 8 FT OR LESS BY SUN AFTERNOON.

A 1026 MB HIGH HAS REFORMED TO THE NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
EXTENDING A NARROW RIDGE E TO NEAR 38N135W AND THEN DRAPES TO
THE E OF THE REMNANTS OF MARIE AND A SECOND NARROW RIDGE FROM
NEAR 34N145W TO THE W OF THE REMNANTS OF MARIE. MEANWHILE
TROUGHING ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO IS GIVING A MODEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EASTERN RIDGE AND TROUGH WHICH
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS AND RESULTANT SEAS 6
TO 8 FT JUST W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE WINDS HAVE
DIMINISH AND THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS MORNING.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO THE W-NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300856
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0815 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
NONE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM OVER MEXICO INTO THE REGION NEAR
15N98W TO 12N99W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO
TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND
ENERGY HAS SHIFTED W-NW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N99W ALONG 11N109W TO
10N117W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 8N128W. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM
21N106W TO 19N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 18N E OF 109W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90 NM ALONG COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 87W-98W AND FROM 7N-
10N BETWEEN 93W-111W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANTS OF MARIE IS A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N135W. A
SHALLOW STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IS STILL SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
TONIGHT WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION IS
WELL N OF THE REGION. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT JUST ALONG THE N BORDER MAINLY WEST OF THE
LOW CENTER. THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT W-NW THEN W
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS HOVERING ALONG 31N BEFORE DISSIPATING
LATE TUE. ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR
LESS AND 8 FT OR LESS BY SUN AFTERNOON.

A 1026 MB HIGH HAS REFORMED TO THE NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
EXTENDING A NARROW RIDGE E TO NEAR 38N135W AND THEN DRAPES TO
THE E OF THE REMNANTS OF MARIE AND A SECOND NARROW RIDGE FROM
NEAR 34N145W TO THE W OF THE REMNANTS OF MARIE. MEANWHILE
TROUGHING ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO IS GIVING A MODEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EASTERN RIDGE AND TROUGH WHICH
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS AND RESULTANT SEAS 6
TO 8 FT JUST W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE WINDS HAVE
DIMINISH AND THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS MORNING.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO THE W-NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300856
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0815 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
NONE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM OVER MEXICO INTO THE REGION NEAR
15N98W TO 12N99W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO
TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND
ENERGY HAS SHIFTED W-NW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N99W ALONG 11N109W TO
10N117W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 8N128W. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM
21N106W TO 19N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 18N E OF 109W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90 NM ALONG COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 87W-98W AND FROM 7N-
10N BETWEEN 93W-111W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANTS OF MARIE IS A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N135W. A
SHALLOW STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IS STILL SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
TONIGHT WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION IS
WELL N OF THE REGION. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT JUST ALONG THE N BORDER MAINLY WEST OF THE
LOW CENTER. THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT W-NW THEN W
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS HOVERING ALONG 31N BEFORE DISSIPATING
LATE TUE. ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR
LESS AND 8 FT OR LESS BY SUN AFTERNOON.

A 1026 MB HIGH HAS REFORMED TO THE NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
EXTENDING A NARROW RIDGE E TO NEAR 38N135W AND THEN DRAPES TO
THE E OF THE REMNANTS OF MARIE AND A SECOND NARROW RIDGE FROM
NEAR 34N145W TO THE W OF THE REMNANTS OF MARIE. MEANWHILE
TROUGHING ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO IS GIVING A MODEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EASTERN RIDGE AND TROUGH WHICH
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS AND RESULTANT SEAS 6
TO 8 FT JUST W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE WINDS HAVE
DIMINISH AND THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS MORNING.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO THE W-NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300856
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0815 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
NONE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM OVER MEXICO INTO THE REGION NEAR
15N98W TO 12N99W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO
TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND
ENERGY HAS SHIFTED W-NW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N99W ALONG 11N109W TO
10N117W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 8N128W. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM
21N106W TO 19N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 18N E OF 109W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90 NM ALONG COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 87W-98W AND FROM 7N-
10N BETWEEN 93W-111W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANTS OF MARIE IS A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N135W. A
SHALLOW STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IS STILL SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
TONIGHT WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION IS
WELL N OF THE REGION. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT JUST ALONG THE N BORDER MAINLY WEST OF THE
LOW CENTER. THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT W-NW THEN W
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS HOVERING ALONG 31N BEFORE DISSIPATING
LATE TUE. ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR
LESS AND 8 FT OR LESS BY SUN AFTERNOON.

A 1026 MB HIGH HAS REFORMED TO THE NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
EXTENDING A NARROW RIDGE E TO NEAR 38N135W AND THEN DRAPES TO
THE E OF THE REMNANTS OF MARIE AND A SECOND NARROW RIDGE FROM
NEAR 34N145W TO THE W OF THE REMNANTS OF MARIE. MEANWHILE
TROUGHING ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO IS GIVING A MODEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EASTERN RIDGE AND TROUGH WHICH
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS AND RESULTANT SEAS 6
TO 8 FT JUST W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE WINDS HAVE
DIMINISH AND THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS MORNING.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO THE W-NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
PAW


000
AXNT20 KNHC 300602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N19W 15N21W 9N22W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N
BETWEEN 37W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
6N TO 10N BETWEEN 36W AND 45W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
12N27W 8N31W 6N32W...AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 49W AND 62W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N80W IN CUBA...TO
18N82W...AND 13N82W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 19N
BETWEEN 75W AND 80W AROUND JAMAICA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W... TO
THE EAST OF THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N NORTHWARD IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W/97W FROM 23N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS ACROSS MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN MEXICO
TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 100W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 9N13W TO 8N24W 9N39W AND 9N49W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
9N49W TO 12N58W AND 11N61W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N27W 8N31W 6N32W...AND
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 49W AND 62W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 25W AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS INTO EAST TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
86W AND 92W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ALSO COVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N75W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 30N81W IN FLORIDA...TO 29N90W IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 28N95W IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W/97W FROM 23N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS ACROSS MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN MEXICO
TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 100W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KXIH...KGHB...KSPR...KMDJ...AND KVOA.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MOSTLY MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN
WESLACO. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN GALVESTON.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF LOUISIANA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS SURROUND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. RAIN IS BEING REPORTED
IN SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT..THE 6 HOUR FORECAST OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN
88W AND 92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N80W IN CUBA...TO 18N82W...AND
13N82W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 75W AND
80W AROUND JAMAICA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW IS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W... TO THE EAST OF
THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 19N NORTHWARD IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROAD...ILL-DEFINED...AND DISORGANIZED MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W
WESTWARD. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.36 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 23N80W IN CUBA...TO
18N82W...AND 13N82W...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. FROM 15N TO 18N
BETWEEN 71W AND 77W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. S OF 15N
BETWEEN 68W AND 72W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS AND
SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR NUMEROUS TSTMS WITHIN FROM 14N TO 18N
BETWEEN 74W AND 81W.

...HISPANIOLA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM TO A 25N68W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 15N77W...
TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...MOVING AROUND THE 25N68W CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE
AREA FROM 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 25N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 60W AND 74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AROUND THE 25N68W CYCLONIC CENTER...ISOLATED MODERATE IN
THE AREAS OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED-TO-BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
BEING REPORTED AT THE OBSERVATION SITES THAT ARE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN
SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROUGH
WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL BE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF
THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE TIME. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
36 TO 42 HOURS. A RIDGE EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM HAITI TO COLOMBIA ALONG 72W...
MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 15N
BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 72W AND
75W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH
OF 32N BETWEEN 60W AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 32N66W BEYOND 33N56W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N37W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 27N38W AND 22N40W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
30N TO 33N BETWEEN 35W AND 39W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N16W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N27W...TO 29N36W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N46W...TO 27N72W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 300602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N19W 15N21W 9N22W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N
BETWEEN 37W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
6N TO 10N BETWEEN 36W AND 45W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
12N27W 8N31W 6N32W...AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 49W AND 62W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N80W IN CUBA...TO
18N82W...AND 13N82W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 19N
BETWEEN 75W AND 80W AROUND JAMAICA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W... TO
THE EAST OF THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N NORTHWARD IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W/97W FROM 23N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS ACROSS MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN MEXICO
TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 100W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 9N13W TO 8N24W 9N39W AND 9N49W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
9N49W TO 12N58W AND 11N61W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N27W 8N31W 6N32W...AND
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 49W AND 62W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 25W AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS INTO EAST TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
86W AND 92W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ALSO COVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N75W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 30N81W IN FLORIDA...TO 29N90W IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 28N95W IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W/97W FROM 23N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS ACROSS MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN MEXICO
TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 100W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KXIH...KGHB...KSPR...KMDJ...AND KVOA.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MOSTLY MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN
WESLACO. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN GALVESTON.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF LOUISIANA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS SURROUND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. RAIN IS BEING REPORTED
IN SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT..THE 6 HOUR FORECAST OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN
88W AND 92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N80W IN CUBA...TO 18N82W...AND
13N82W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 75W AND
80W AROUND JAMAICA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW IS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W... TO THE EAST OF
THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 19N NORTHWARD IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROAD...ILL-DEFINED...AND DISORGANIZED MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W
WESTWARD. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.36 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 23N80W IN CUBA...TO
18N82W...AND 13N82W...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. FROM 15N TO 18N
BETWEEN 71W AND 77W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. S OF 15N
BETWEEN 68W AND 72W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS AND
SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR NUMEROUS TSTMS WITHIN FROM 14N TO 18N
BETWEEN 74W AND 81W.

...HISPANIOLA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM TO A 25N68W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 15N77W...
TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...MOVING AROUND THE 25N68W CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE
AREA FROM 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 25N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 60W AND 74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AROUND THE 25N68W CYCLONIC CENTER...ISOLATED MODERATE IN
THE AREAS OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED-TO-BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
BEING REPORTED AT THE OBSERVATION SITES THAT ARE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN
SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROUGH
WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL BE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF
THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE TIME. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
36 TO 42 HOURS. A RIDGE EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM HAITI TO COLOMBIA ALONG 72W...
MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 15N
BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 72W AND
75W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH
OF 32N BETWEEN 60W AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 32N66W BEYOND 33N56W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N37W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 27N38W AND 22N40W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
30N TO 33N BETWEEN 35W AND 39W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N16W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N27W...TO 29N36W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N46W...TO 27N72W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


000
ACPN50 PHFO 300555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI AUG 29 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

$$

POWELL












000
ACCA62 TJSJ 300505
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT SABADO 30 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CONTINUA ASOCIADA A
UNA ONDA TROPICAL MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL OESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. SE
ESPERA QUE LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS SE TORNEN MAS FAVORABLES
DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA...PERO LA INTERACCION CON TIERRA LIMITARA
EL DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO A MEDIDA QUE EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA A
TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN EL DOMINGO. SE ESPERA QUE LAS
CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES ESTEN CONDUCENTES PARA ALGUN DESARROLLO
GRADUAL UNA VEZ EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA HACIA EL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE
MEXICO EL LUNES.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR
CIENTO.

$$
PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 300505
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT SABADO 30 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

ACTIVIDAD DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CONTINUA ASOCIADA A
UNA ONDA TROPICAL MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL OESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. SE
ESPERA QUE LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS SE TORNEN MAS FAVORABLES
DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA...PERO LA INTERACCION CON TIERRA LIMITARA
EL DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO A MEDIDA QUE EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA A
TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN EL DOMINGO. SE ESPERA QUE LAS
CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES ESTEN CONDUCENTES PARA ALGUN DESARROLLO
GRADUAL UNA VEZ EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA HACIA EL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE
MEXICO EL LUNES.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR
CIENTO.

$$
PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN




000
ABPZ20 KNHC 300501
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABNT20 KNHC 300501
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave moving into the western Caribbean
Sea. Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive over
the weekend, but land interaction will likely limit significant
development while the disturbance moves across the Yucatan peninsula
on Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
some gradual development once the system moves into the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABNT20 KNHC 300501
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave moving into the western Caribbean
Sea. Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive over
the weekend, but land interaction will likely limit significant
development while the disturbance moves across the Yucatan peninsula
on Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
some gradual development once the system moves into the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABNT20 KNHC 300501
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave moving into the western Caribbean
Sea. Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive over
the weekend, but land interaction will likely limit significant
development while the disturbance moves across the Yucatan peninsula
on Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
some gradual development once the system moves into the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABNT20 KNHC 300501
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave moving into the western Caribbean
Sea. Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive over
the weekend, but land interaction will likely limit significant
development while the disturbance moves across the Yucatan peninsula
on Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
some gradual development once the system moves into the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300232
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE WARNING...THE REMNANT LOW CENTER OF MARIE IS LOCATED NEAR
30N133.5W AT 1003 MB. A SHALLOW STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IS STILL
SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING WITHIN 500 NM OF THE SE
SEMICIRCLE AND MULTILAYERED MAINLY STRATOFORM CLOUDS ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WITHIN 500 NM OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTS FROM 150 TO 270 NM N OF THE CENTER
AND WELL N OF THE LOCAL WATERS. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS WITHIN 210 NM ACROSS THE N SIDE OF THE
CENTER...AND A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 06 UTC
SAT...WHEN THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT N AND OUT OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE NW REACHING 32N BY LATE SAT. ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS AND 8 FT OR LESS BY 48 HOURS ACROSS
THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...
EXTENDING FROM A WEAK LOW CENTER NEAR 12N97W N-NE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE FAR W BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE WAVE HAD
BEEN MOVING W-NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AT 20-25 KT THE PAST 24
HOURS...BUT THE S PORTION OF THE WAVE IN THE EPAC IS NOW MOVING
W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 92W AND 102W. THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO TRACK
DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY
HAS SHIFTED W-NW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEW LOW PRES NEAR 12N97W
1008 MB TO 10N120W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING
ON TO 12N136W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED N OF 08N TO COASTS BETWEEN 80W AND 95W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N
AND 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 97W AND 110.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES PERSISTING N OF THE AREA NEAR 41N135W LAST NIGHT HAS
COLLAPSED AS A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NE PACIFIC...WITH A
NEW HIGH NOW TO THE W AND WELL N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS EXTENDS
A NARROW RIDGE E TO NEAR 37N140W AND THEN DRAPES ACROSS AND TO
THE N OF THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...THEN S-SE TO NEAR 20N122W.
MEANWHILE TROUGHING HAS SET UP ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO. A
MODEST PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS AND RESULTANT SEAS 6 TO 8 FT JUST W
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE THESE
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY NW.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO THE NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300232
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE WARNING...THE REMNANT LOW CENTER OF MARIE IS LOCATED NEAR
30N133.5W AT 1003 MB. A SHALLOW STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IS STILL
SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING WITHIN 500 NM OF THE SE
SEMICIRCLE AND MULTILAYERED MAINLY STRATOFORM CLOUDS ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WITHIN 500 NM OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTS FROM 150 TO 270 NM N OF THE CENTER
AND WELL N OF THE LOCAL WATERS. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS WITHIN 210 NM ACROSS THE N SIDE OF THE
CENTER...AND A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 06 UTC
SAT...WHEN THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT N AND OUT OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE NW REACHING 32N BY LATE SAT. ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS AND 8 FT OR LESS BY 48 HOURS ACROSS
THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...
EXTENDING FROM A WEAK LOW CENTER NEAR 12N97W N-NE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE FAR W BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE WAVE HAD
BEEN MOVING W-NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AT 20-25 KT THE PAST 24
HOURS...BUT THE S PORTION OF THE WAVE IN THE EPAC IS NOW MOVING
W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 92W AND 102W. THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO TRACK
DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY
HAS SHIFTED W-NW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEW LOW PRES NEAR 12N97W
1008 MB TO 10N120W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING
ON TO 12N136W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED N OF 08N TO COASTS BETWEEN 80W AND 95W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N
AND 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 97W AND 110.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES PERSISTING N OF THE AREA NEAR 41N135W LAST NIGHT HAS
COLLAPSED AS A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NE PACIFIC...WITH A
NEW HIGH NOW TO THE W AND WELL N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS EXTENDS
A NARROW RIDGE E TO NEAR 37N140W AND THEN DRAPES ACROSS AND TO
THE N OF THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...THEN S-SE TO NEAR 20N122W.
MEANWHILE TROUGHING HAS SET UP ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO. A
MODEST PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS AND RESULTANT SEAS 6 TO 8 FT JUST W
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE THESE
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY NW.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO THE NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
STRIPLING


000
ACCA62 TJSJ 300045
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT VIERNES 29 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN EXTENSA AREA DESORGANIZADA DE NUBOSIDAD Y TRONADAS ASOCIADAS CON
UNA ONDA TROPICAL LOCALIZADA EN EL CENTRO DEL MAR CARIBE. MIENTRAS
LA ONDA SE MUEVA SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE SE PRONOSTICA QUE
LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS DE LA ATMOSFERA SE VAN A TORNAR UN
POCO MAS FAVORABLES PARA SU DESARROLLO EL SABADO. SIN EMBARGO...
MIENTRAS EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN
EL DOMINGO LAS INTERACCIONES CON LA TIERRA LIMITARAN
SIGNIFICATIVAMENTE SU DESARROLLO. LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE
ESPERAN ESTEN MAS CONDUCENTES PARA QUE OCURRA UN DESARROLLO GRADUAL
UNA VEZ EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA SOBRE EL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR
CIENTO.

$$
PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 300045
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT VIERNES 29 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN EXTENSA AREA DESORGANIZADA DE NUBOSIDAD Y TRONADAS ASOCIADAS CON
UNA ONDA TROPICAL LOCALIZADA EN EL CENTRO DEL MAR CARIBE. MIENTRAS
LA ONDA SE MUEVA SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE SE PRONOSTICA QUE
LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS DE LA ATMOSFERA SE VAN A TORNAR UN
POCO MAS FAVORABLES PARA SU DESARROLLO EL SABADO. SIN EMBARGO...
MIENTRAS EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN
EL DOMINGO LAS INTERACCIONES CON LA TIERRA LIMITARAN
SIGNIFICATIVAMENTE SU DESARROLLO. LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE
ESPERAN ESTEN MAS CONDUCENTES PARA QUE OCURRA UN DESARROLLO GRADUAL
UNA VEZ EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA SOBRE EL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR
CIENTO.

$$
PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 300045
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT VIERNES 29 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN EXTENSA AREA DESORGANIZADA DE NUBOSIDAD Y TRONADAS ASOCIADAS CON
UNA ONDA TROPICAL LOCALIZADA EN EL CENTRO DEL MAR CARIBE. MIENTRAS
LA ONDA SE MUEVA SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE SE PRONOSTICA QUE
LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS DE LA ATMOSFERA SE VAN A TORNAR UN
POCO MAS FAVORABLES PARA SU DESARROLLO EL SABADO. SIN EMBARGO...
MIENTRAS EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN
EL DOMINGO LAS INTERACCIONES CON LA TIERRA LIMITARAN
SIGNIFICATIVAMENTE SU DESARROLLO. LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE
ESPERAN ESTEN MAS CONDUCENTES PARA QUE OCURRA UN DESARROLLO GRADUAL
UNA VEZ EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA SOBRE EL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR
CIENTO.

$$
PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 300045
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM EDT VIERNES 29 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

UN EXTENSA AREA DESORGANIZADA DE NUBOSIDAD Y TRONADAS ASOCIADAS CON
UNA ONDA TROPICAL LOCALIZADA EN EL CENTRO DEL MAR CARIBE. MIENTRAS
LA ONDA SE MUEVA SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE SE PRONOSTICA QUE
LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS DE LA ATMOSFERA SE VAN A TORNAR UN
POCO MAS FAVORABLES PARA SU DESARROLLO EL SABADO. SIN EMBARGO...
MIENTRAS EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN
EL DOMINGO LAS INTERACCIONES CON LA TIERRA LIMITARAN
SIGNIFICATIVAMENTE SU DESARROLLO. LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE
ESPERAN ESTEN MAS CONDUCENTES PARA QUE OCURRA UN DESARROLLO GRADUAL
UNA VEZ EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA SOBRE EL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR
CIENTO.

$$
PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN





000
AXNT20 KNHC 292345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA EXTENDING FROM
22N17W TO 13N17W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON
THE WAVE AXIS AT 19N18W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA ALONG THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 20N-21N MAINLY E OF 17W.
EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N39W TO 10N42W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS WAVE IS MAINLY INDUCED BY THE MONSOON
TROUGH...WHICH IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N51W TO 10N53W MOVING W AT 20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NEAR THIS WAVE ALSO ASIDE FROM THE ONE ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N77W TO 10N81W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. A 1008
MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N81W. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE MAINLY S OF 20N SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF EASTERN CUBA FROM 13N-20N
BETWEEN 75W-83W. THE STRONGEST AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS W OF THE AXIS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 75W-79W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
08N22W TO 10N46W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N46W TO THE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 24W-43W ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 47W-55W WHILE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
W OF 53W BETWEEN 10N-13N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER S TEXAS NEAR 26N98W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO 27N97W TO N FLORIDA AT 30N84W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 87W-96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS LATER THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS NEAR 23N96W. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 30N86W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W...AND THE NE GULF N OF
28N TO INCLUDE THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF EASTERN CUBA
IS DOMINATING THE WEATHER. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE
ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ELONGATED LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC NEAR 24N69W AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 15N78W WHILE
ANOTHER ONE IS LOCATED ACROSS SE PUERTO RICO NEAR 16N75W. THE
INTERACTION OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING THE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE MOVING W AND FOR MORE TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC.

...HISPANIOLA...

TWO CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. THE
STRONGEST ONE IS LOCATED OVER NW HAITI FROM 19N-20N BETWEEN 72W-
74W. THE OTHER ONE IS OVER S DOMINICAN REPUBLIC W OF 70W...
BETWEEN 17N-19N. ASIDE FROM THAT...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONVECTION TO TRAVERSE THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N67W TO 29N78W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 75W-79W.
A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N54W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N69W WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER OVER THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N36W GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 292345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA EXTENDING FROM
22N17W TO 13N17W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON
THE WAVE AXIS AT 19N18W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA ALONG THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 20N-21N MAINLY E OF 17W.
EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N39W TO 10N42W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS WAVE IS MAINLY INDUCED BY THE MONSOON
TROUGH...WHICH IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N51W TO 10N53W MOVING W AT 20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NEAR THIS WAVE ALSO ASIDE FROM THE ONE ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N77W TO 10N81W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. A 1008
MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N81W. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE MAINLY S OF 20N SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF EASTERN CUBA FROM 13N-20N
BETWEEN 75W-83W. THE STRONGEST AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS W OF THE AXIS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 75W-79W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
08N22W TO 10N46W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N46W TO THE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 24W-43W ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 47W-55W WHILE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
W OF 53W BETWEEN 10N-13N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER S TEXAS NEAR 26N98W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO 27N97W TO N FLORIDA AT 30N84W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 87W-96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS LATER THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS NEAR 23N96W. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 30N86W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W...AND THE NE GULF N OF
28N TO INCLUDE THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF EASTERN CUBA
IS DOMINATING THE WEATHER. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE
ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ELONGATED LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC NEAR 24N69W AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 15N78W WHILE
ANOTHER ONE IS LOCATED ACROSS SE PUERTO RICO NEAR 16N75W. THE
INTERACTION OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING THE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE MOVING W AND FOR MORE TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC.

...HISPANIOLA...

TWO CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. THE
STRONGEST ONE IS LOCATED OVER NW HAITI FROM 19N-20N BETWEEN 72W-
74W. THE OTHER ONE IS OVER S DOMINICAN REPUBLIC W OF 70W...
BETWEEN 17N-19N. ASIDE FROM THAT...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONVECTION TO TRAVERSE THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N67W TO 29N78W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 75W-79W.
A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N54W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N69W WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER OVER THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N36W GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 292345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA EXTENDING FROM
22N17W TO 13N17W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON
THE WAVE AXIS AT 19N18W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA ALONG THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 20N-21N MAINLY E OF 17W.
EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N39W TO 10N42W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS WAVE IS MAINLY INDUCED BY THE MONSOON
TROUGH...WHICH IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N51W TO 10N53W MOVING W AT 20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NEAR THIS WAVE ALSO ASIDE FROM THE ONE ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N77W TO 10N81W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. A 1008
MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N81W. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE MAINLY S OF 20N SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF EASTERN CUBA FROM 13N-20N
BETWEEN 75W-83W. THE STRONGEST AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS W OF THE AXIS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 75W-79W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
08N22W TO 10N46W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N46W TO THE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 24W-43W ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 47W-55W WHILE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
W OF 53W BETWEEN 10N-13N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER S TEXAS NEAR 26N98W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO 27N97W TO N FLORIDA AT 30N84W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 87W-96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS LATER THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS NEAR 23N96W. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 30N86W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W...AND THE NE GULF N OF
28N TO INCLUDE THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF EASTERN CUBA
IS DOMINATING THE WEATHER. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE
ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ELONGATED LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC NEAR 24N69W AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 15N78W WHILE
ANOTHER ONE IS LOCATED ACROSS SE PUERTO RICO NEAR 16N75W. THE
INTERACTION OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING THE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE MOVING W AND FOR MORE TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC.

...HISPANIOLA...

TWO CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. THE
STRONGEST ONE IS LOCATED OVER NW HAITI FROM 19N-20N BETWEEN 72W-
74W. THE OTHER ONE IS OVER S DOMINICAN REPUBLIC W OF 70W...
BETWEEN 17N-19N. ASIDE FROM THAT...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONVECTION TO TRAVERSE THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N67W TO 29N78W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 75W-79W.
A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N54W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N69W WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER OVER THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N36W GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 292345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA EXTENDING FROM
22N17W TO 13N17W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON
THE WAVE AXIS AT 19N18W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA ALONG THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 20N-21N MAINLY E OF 17W.
EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N39W TO 10N42W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS WAVE IS MAINLY INDUCED BY THE MONSOON
TROUGH...WHICH IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N51W TO 10N53W MOVING W AT 20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NEAR THIS WAVE ALSO ASIDE FROM THE ONE ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N77W TO 10N81W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. A 1008
MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N81W. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE MAINLY S OF 20N SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF EASTERN CUBA FROM 13N-20N
BETWEEN 75W-83W. THE STRONGEST AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS W OF THE AXIS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 75W-79W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
08N22W TO 10N46W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N46W TO THE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 24W-43W ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 47W-55W WHILE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
W OF 53W BETWEEN 10N-13N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER S TEXAS NEAR 26N98W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO 27N97W TO N FLORIDA AT 30N84W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 87W-96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS LATER THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS NEAR 23N96W. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 30N86W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W...AND THE NE GULF N OF
28N TO INCLUDE THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF EASTERN CUBA
IS DOMINATING THE WEATHER. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE
ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ELONGATED LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC NEAR 24N69W AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 15N78W WHILE
ANOTHER ONE IS LOCATED ACROSS SE PUERTO RICO NEAR 16N75W. THE
INTERACTION OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING THE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE MOVING W AND FOR MORE TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC.

...HISPANIOLA...

TWO CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. THE
STRONGEST ONE IS LOCATED OVER NW HAITI FROM 19N-20N BETWEEN 72W-
74W. THE OTHER ONE IS OVER S DOMINICAN REPUBLIC W OF 70W...
BETWEEN 17N-19N. ASIDE FROM THAT...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONVECTION TO TRAVERSE THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N67W TO 29N78W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 75W-79W.
A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N54W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N69W WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER OVER THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N36W GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


000
ACPN50 PHFO 292345
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST FRI AUG 29 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

LAU









000
ACPN50 PHFO 292345
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST FRI AUG 29 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

LAU









000
ACPN50 PHFO 292345
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST FRI AUG 29 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

LAU









000
ACPN50 PHFO 292345
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST FRI AUG 29 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

LAU









000
ABNT20 KNHC 292321
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms is
associated with a tropical wave located in the central Caribbean
Sea. Upper-level winds are forecast to become a little more
favorable for development on Saturday while the wave moves into the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. However, land interaction will likely
limit significant development as the disturbance moves across the
Yucatan peninsula on Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for some gradual development once the system moves
into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


000
ABNT20 KNHC 292321
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms is
associated with a tropical wave located in the central Caribbean
Sea. Upper-level winds are forecast to become a little more
favorable for development on Saturday while the wave moves into the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. However, land interaction will likely
limit significant development as the disturbance moves across the
Yucatan peninsula on Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for some gradual development once the system moves
into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292312
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Landsea


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292312
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Landsea



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292201
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE WARNING...THE REMNANT LOW CENTER OF MARIE IS LOCATED NEAR
29N133.5W AT 1002 MB. A SHALLOW STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IS SEEN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN 500 NM OF THE SE SEMICIRCLE AND
MULTILAYERED MAINLY STRATOFORM CLOUDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS WITHIN 500 NM OF THE CENTER. SOME MODERATE CONVECTION HAS
RECENTLY DEVELOPED 90 TO 270 NM N OF THE CENTER AND WELL N OF
THE LOCAL WATERS. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
WITHIN 210 NM ACROSS THE N SIDE OF THE CENTER...AND A GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 00 UTC SAT...WHEN THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT N AND OUT OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NW REACHING
32N BY LATE SAT. ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 20
KT OR LESS AND 8 FT OR LESS BY 48 HOURS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF
THE DISCUSSION WATERS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...EXTENDING FROM NEAR 11N95.5W N-NE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. THE WAVE HAD BEEN MOVING
W-NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AT 20-25 KT THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT
THE S PORTION OF THE WAVE IN THE EPAC IS NOW MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO TRACK DURING THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY HAS SHIFTED
W-NW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES IN SW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 12N81W 1010 MB TO 12.5N95W TO 11N109W TO 08N119W...WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 12N135W TO BEYOND
11.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN
270 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 85W AND 90W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N AND
270 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 109W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA NEAR 41N135W OVERNIGHT HAS COLLAPSED AS
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NE PACIFIC...WITH A NEW HIGH TO
THE W AND WELL N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS EXTENDING A NARROW
RIDGE E TO NEAR 37N140W AND THEN SADDLES ACROSS AND TO THE N OF
THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...THEN SE TO NEAR 30N122W. MEANWHILE
TROUGHING HAS SET UP ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO. A MODEST
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG NW-N WINDS AND RESULTANT SEAS TO 8 FT JUST W OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE THESE CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY NW.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO THE NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292201
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE WARNING...THE REMNANT LOW CENTER OF MARIE IS LOCATED NEAR
29N133.5W AT 1002 MB. A SHALLOW STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IS SEEN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN 500 NM OF THE SE SEMICIRCLE AND
MULTILAYERED MAINLY STRATOFORM CLOUDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS WITHIN 500 NM OF THE CENTER. SOME MODERATE CONVECTION HAS
RECENTLY DEVELOPED 90 TO 270 NM N OF THE CENTER AND WELL N OF
THE LOCAL WATERS. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
WITHIN 210 NM ACROSS THE N SIDE OF THE CENTER...AND A GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 00 UTC SAT...WHEN THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT N AND OUT OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NW REACHING
32N BY LATE SAT. ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 20
KT OR LESS AND 8 FT OR LESS BY 48 HOURS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF
THE DISCUSSION WATERS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...EXTENDING FROM NEAR 11N95.5W N-NE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. THE WAVE HAD BEEN MOVING
W-NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AT 20-25 KT THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT
THE S PORTION OF THE WAVE IN THE EPAC IS NOW MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO TRACK DURING THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY HAS SHIFTED
W-NW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES IN SW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 12N81W 1010 MB TO 12.5N95W TO 11N109W TO 08N119W...WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 12N135W TO BEYOND
11.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN
270 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 85W AND 90W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N AND
270 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 109W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA NEAR 41N135W OVERNIGHT HAS COLLAPSED AS
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NE PACIFIC...WITH A NEW HIGH TO
THE W AND WELL N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS EXTENDING A NARROW
RIDGE E TO NEAR 37N140W AND THEN SADDLES ACROSS AND TO THE N OF
THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...THEN SE TO NEAR 30N122W. MEANWHILE
TROUGHING HAS SET UP ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO. A MODEST
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG NW-N WINDS AND RESULTANT SEAS TO 8 FT JUST W OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE THESE CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY NW.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO THE NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
STRIPLING


000
ACPN50 PHFO 291755
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST FRI AUG 29 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

KINEL




000
ACPN50 PHFO 291755
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST FRI AUG 29 2014

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

KINEL





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 291743
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT VIERNES 29 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES HA EMITIDO LA ULTIMA ADVERTENCIA
SOBRE CRISTOBAL...EL CUAL AHORA ES UN CICLON POST TROPICAL
LOCALIZADO A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL ESTE DE CAPE
RACE...NEWFOUNDLAND.

UN AREA GRANDE DE NUBOSIDAD Y TRONADAS DESORGANIZADAS SOBRE EL
CENTRO DEL MAR CARIBE ESTA ASOCIADA A UNA ONDA TROPICAL. SE ESPERA
QUE LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS SEAN UN POCO MAS FAVORABLES
PARA DESARROLLO EL SABADO MIENTRAS LA ONDA SE MUEVE SOBRE EL
NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. SE PRONOSTICA QUE EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA A
TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN EL DOMINGO Y HACIA EL SUROESTE DEL
GOLFO DE MEXICO EL LUNES...DONDE LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE
ESPERAN QUE SEAN FAVORABLES PARA UN DESARROLLO GRADUAL.

* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR
CIENTO.


PRONOSTICADOR BROWN





000
ACCA62 TJSJ 291743
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM EDT VIERNES 29 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES HA EMITIDO LA ULTIMA ADVERTENCIA
SOBRE CRISTOBAL...EL CUAL AHORA ES UN CICLON POST TROPICAL
LOCALIZADO A VARIOS CIENTOS DE MILLAS AL ESTE DE CAPE
RACE...NEWFOUNDLAND.

UN AREA GRANDE DE NUBOSIDAD Y TRONADAS DESORGANIZADAS SOBRE EL
CENTRO DEL MAR CARIBE ESTA ASOCIADA A UNA ONDA TROPICAL. SE ESPERA
QUE LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS SEAN UN POCO MAS FAVORABLES
PARA DESARROLLO EL SABADO MIENTRAS LA ONDA SE MUEVE SOBRE EL
NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE. SE PRONOSTICA QUE EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA A
TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN EL DOMINGO Y HACIA EL SUROESTE DEL
GOLFO DE MEXICO EL LUNES...DONDE LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE
ESPERAN QUE SEAN FAVORABLES PARA UN DESARROLLO GRADUAL.

* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR
CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD PARA UN DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...MEDIANA...30 POR
CIENTO.


PRONOSTICADOR BROWN




000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291734
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABNT20 KNHC 291734
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Cristobal, which has become a post-tropical cyclone a few hundred
miles east of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over
the central Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical wave.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become a little more favorable
for development on Saturday while the wave moves over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The disturbance is forecast to move
across the Yucatan peninsula on Sunday and into the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico by Monday, where environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some gradual development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291734
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABNT20 KNHC 291734
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Cristobal, which has become a post-tropical cyclone a few hundred
miles east of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over
the central Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical wave.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become a little more favorable
for development on Saturday while the wave moves over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The disturbance is forecast to move
across the Yucatan peninsula on Sunday and into the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico by Monday, where environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some gradual development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291734
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABNT20 KNHC 291734
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Cristobal, which has become a post-tropical cyclone a few hundred
miles east of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over
the central Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical wave.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become a little more favorable
for development on Saturday while the wave moves over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The disturbance is forecast to move
across the Yucatan peninsula on Sunday and into the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico by Monday, where environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some gradual development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291734
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABNT20 KNHC 291734
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Cristobal, which has become a post-tropical cyclone a few hundred
miles east of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over
the central Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical wave.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become a little more favorable
for development on Saturday while the wave moves over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The disturbance is forecast to move
across the Yucatan peninsula on Sunday and into the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico by Monday, where environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some gradual development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291734
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABNT20 KNHC 291734
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Cristobal, which has become a post-tropical cyclone a few hundred
miles east of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over
the central Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical wave.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become a little more favorable
for development on Saturday while the wave moves over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The disturbance is forecast to move
across the Yucatan peninsula on Sunday and into the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico by Monday, where environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some gradual development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291734
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABNT20 KNHC 291734
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Cristobal, which has become a post-tropical cyclone a few hundred
miles east of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over
the central Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical wave.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become a little more favorable
for development on Saturday while the wave moves over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The disturbance is forecast to move
across the Yucatan peninsula on Sunday and into the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico by Monday, where environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some gradual development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291734
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABNT20 KNHC 291734
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Cristobal, which has become a post-tropical cyclone a few hundred
miles east of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over
the central Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical wave.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become a little more favorable
for development on Saturday while the wave moves over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The disturbance is forecast to move
across the Yucatan peninsula on Sunday and into the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico by Monday, where environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some gradual development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291734
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



000
ABNT20 KNHC 291734
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Cristobal, which has become a post-tropical cyclone a few hundred
miles east of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over
the central Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical wave.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become a little more favorable
for development on Saturday while the wave moves over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The disturbance is forecast to move
across the Yucatan peninsula on Sunday and into the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico by Monday, where environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some gradual development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



000
AXNT20 KNHC 291732
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL AT 29/1500 UTC IS
NEAR 45.5N 47.1W...OR ABOUT 261 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
RACE IN NEWFOUNDLAND. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 38
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80
KNOTS. THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ON CRISTOBAL WAS ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. THE
LAST MARINE FORECAST/ADVISORY ON CRISTOBAL WAS ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 46N-50N BETWEEN 40W-
47W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA EXTENDING FROM
22N16W TO 13N16W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON
THE WAVE AXIS AT 18N16W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA ALONG THE COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 18W-22W.
EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
21N37W TO 10N39W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
12N-17N BETWEEN 34W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SE OF
THE AXIS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 33W-39W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N49W TO 10N50W MOVING W AT 20 KT. A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR IS N OF 12N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 45W-53W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N74W TO 9N76W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE MAINLY S OF 18N SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-19N
BETWEEN 69W-72W. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 76W-
83W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
9N22W TO 9N50W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N50W TO TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 23W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1008 MB LOW
OVER S TEXAS NEAR 26N98W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS E FROM THE
LOW TO 29N90W TO N FLORIDA AT 30N84W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN
83W-98W. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER S TEXAS NEAR 25N98W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N89W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF
W OF 90W...AND THE NE GULF N OF 28N TO INCLUDE THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DOMINATING THE
WEATHER. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA NEAR 15N77W
ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W...AND MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO ALSO MOVE W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA IN 24
HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S HISPANIOLA S
OF 19N BETWEEN 69W-72W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONVECTION TO TRAVERSE THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N66W TO 29N79W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 67W-80W.
A 1022MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N54W. A 1021
MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N55W. ANOTHER 1023
MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N26W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N67W WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER OVER THE N BAHAMAS. ANOTHER
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N35W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 291732
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL AT 29/1500 UTC IS
NEAR 45.5N 47.1W...OR ABOUT 261 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
RACE IN NEWFOUNDLAND. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 38
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80
KNOTS. THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ON CRISTOBAL WAS ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. THE
LAST MARINE FORECAST/ADVISORY ON CRISTOBAL WAS ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 46N-50N BETWEEN 40W-
47W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA EXTENDING FROM
22N16W TO 13N16W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON
THE WAVE AXIS AT 18N16W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA ALONG THE COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 18W-22W.
EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
21N37W TO 10N39W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
12N-17N BETWEEN 34W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SE OF
THE AXIS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 33W-39W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N49W TO 10N50W MOVING W AT 20 KT. A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR IS N OF 12N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 45W-53W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N74W TO 9N76W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE MAINLY S OF 18N SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-19N
BETWEEN 69W-72W. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 76W-
83W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
9N22W TO 9N50W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N50W TO TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 23W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1008 MB LOW
OVER S TEXAS NEAR 26N98W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS E FROM THE
LOW TO 29N90W TO N FLORIDA AT 30N84W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN
83W-98W. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER S TEXAS NEAR 25N98W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N89W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF
W OF 90W...AND THE NE GULF N OF 28N TO INCLUDE THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DOMINATING THE
WEATHER. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA NEAR 15N77W
ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W...AND MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO ALSO MOVE W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA IN 24
HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S HISPANIOLA S
OF 19N BETWEEN 69W-72W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONVECTION TO TRAVERSE THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N66W TO 29N79W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 67W-80W.
A 1022MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N54W. A 1021
MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N55W. ANOTHER 1023
MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N26W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N67W WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER OVER THE N BAHAMAS. ANOTHER
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N35W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 291732
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL AT 29/1500 UTC IS
NEAR 45.5N 47.1W...OR ABOUT 261 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
RACE IN NEWFOUNDLAND. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 38
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80
KNOTS. THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ON CRISTOBAL WAS ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. THE
LAST MARINE FORECAST/ADVISORY ON CRISTOBAL WAS ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 46N-50N BETWEEN 40W-
47W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA EXTENDING FROM
22N16W TO 13N16W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON
THE WAVE AXIS AT 18N16W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA ALONG THE COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 18W-22W.
EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
21N37W TO 10N39W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
12N-17N BETWEEN 34W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SE OF
THE AXIS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 33W-39W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N49W TO 10N50W MOVING W AT 20 KT. A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR IS N OF 12N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 45W-53W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N74W TO 9N76W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE MAINLY S OF 18N SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-19N
BETWEEN 69W-72W. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 76W-
83W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
9N22W TO 9N50W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N50W TO TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 23W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1008 MB LOW
OVER S TEXAS NEAR 26N98W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS E FROM THE
LOW TO 29N90W TO N FLORIDA AT 30N84W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN
83W-98W. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER S TEXAS NEAR 25N98W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N89W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF
W OF 90W...AND THE NE GULF N OF 28N TO INCLUDE THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DOMINATING THE
WEATHER. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA NEAR 15N77W
ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W...AND MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO ALSO MOVE W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA IN 24
HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S HISPANIOLA S
OF 19N BETWEEN 69W-72W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONVECTION TO TRAVERSE THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N66W TO 29N79W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 67W-80W.
A 1022MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N54W. A 1021
MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N55W. ANOTHER 1023
MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N26W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N67W WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER OVER THE N BAHAMAS. ANOTHER
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N35W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 291732
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL AT 29/1500 UTC IS
NEAR 45.5N 47.1W...OR ABOUT 261 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
RACE IN NEWFOUNDLAND. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 38
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80
KNOTS. THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ON CRISTOBAL WAS ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. THE
LAST MARINE FORECAST/ADVISORY ON CRISTOBAL WAS ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 46N-50N BETWEEN 40W-
47W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA EXTENDING FROM
22N16W TO 13N16W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON
THE WAVE AXIS AT 18N16W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA ALONG THE COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 18W-22W.
EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
21N37W TO 10N39W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
12N-17N BETWEEN 34W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SE OF
THE AXIS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 33W-39W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N49W TO 10N50W MOVING W AT 20 KT. A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR IS N OF 12N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 45W-53W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N74W TO 9N76W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE MAINLY S OF 18N SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-19N
BETWEEN 69W-72W. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 76W-
83W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
9N22W TO 9N50W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N50W TO TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 23W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1008 MB LOW
OVER S TEXAS NEAR 26N98W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS E FROM THE
LOW TO 29N90W TO N FLORIDA AT 30N84W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN
83W-98W. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER S TEXAS NEAR 25N98W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N89W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF
W OF 90W...AND THE NE GULF N OF 28N TO INCLUDE THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DOMINATING THE
WEATHER. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA NEAR 15N77W
ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W...AND MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO ALSO MOVE W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA IN 24
HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S HISPANIOLA S
OF 19N BETWEEN 69W-72W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONVECTION TO TRAVERSE THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N66W TO 29N79W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 67W-80W.
A 1022MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N54W. A 1021
MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N55W. ANOTHER 1023
MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N26W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N67W WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER OVER THE N BAHAMAS. ANOTHER
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N35W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291516
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE WARNING...THE REMNANT LOW CENTER OF MARIE IS LOCATED NEAR
28.5N133.5W 1002 MB. NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS. OVERNIGHT ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER DATA STILL SHOWED AN AREA OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE
WINDS ON THE N SIDE OF THE CENTER SO A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 00 UTC SAT ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS MAY DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE BY 18 UTC LATER TODAY. THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NW REACHING 32N BY LATE SAT. ASSOCIATED WINDS AND
SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS AND 8 FT OR LESS BY 48 HOURS
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N95W TO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 16N95W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75-150 NM OF
THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 95W AND 102W. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 11N104W TO
09N117W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N117W TO 12N128W TO
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60-90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND
95W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 16W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES AT 1023 MB IS N OF THE AREA NEAR 41N135W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE THROUGH 32N123W TO 20N121W. MEANWHILE
TROUGHING HAS SET UP ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO. BETWEEN
THE TWO...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW-
N WINDS AND RESULTANT SEAS TO 8 FT JUST W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO THE NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291516
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE WARNING...THE REMNANT LOW CENTER OF MARIE IS LOCATED NEAR
28.5N133.5W 1002 MB. NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS. OVERNIGHT ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER DATA STILL SHOWED AN AREA OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE
WINDS ON THE N SIDE OF THE CENTER SO A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 00 UTC SAT ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS MAY DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE BY 18 UTC LATER TODAY. THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NW REACHING 32N BY LATE SAT. ASSOCIATED WINDS AND
SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS AND 8 FT OR LESS BY 48 HOURS
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N95W TO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 16N95W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75-150 NM OF
THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 95W AND 102W. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 11N104W TO
09N117W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N117W TO 12N128W TO
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60-90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND
95W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 16W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES AT 1023 MB IS N OF THE AREA NEAR 41N135W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE THROUGH 32N123W TO 20N121W. MEANWHILE
TROUGHING HAS SET UP ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO. BETWEEN
THE TWO...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW-
N WINDS AND RESULTANT SEAS TO 8 FT JUST W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO THE NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY



000
WTNT24 KNHC 291449
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1500 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N  47.1W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  38 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT.......  0NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT.......100NE 140SE 100SW  70NW.
34 KT.......200NE 270SE 220SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 180SE 700SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N  47.1W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.4N  48.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 48.2N  41.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
50 KT...100NE 140SE 130SW 150NW.
34 KT...200NE 270SE 270SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 51.5N  35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  90SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT...200NE 250SE 250SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 55.0N  27.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 120SE 120SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 250SE 270SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.5N  47.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON CRISTOBAL.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTNT24 KNHC 291449
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1500 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N  47.1W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  38 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT.......  0NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT.......100NE 140SE 100SW  70NW.
34 KT.......200NE 270SE 220SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 180SE 700SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N  47.1W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.4N  48.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 48.2N  41.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
50 KT...100NE 140SE 130SW 150NW.
34 KT...200NE 270SE 270SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 51.5N  35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  90SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT...200NE 250SE 250SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 55.0N  27.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 120SE 120SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 250SE 270SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.5N  47.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON CRISTOBAL.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTNT34 KNHC 291449
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

...CRISTOBAL BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...45.5N 47.1W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 44 MPH...70 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.1
WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR
44 MPH...70 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS.  THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES...500 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND
NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON CRISTOBAL.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTNT34 KNHC 291449
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

...CRISTOBAL BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...45.5N 47.1W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 44 MPH...70 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.1
WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR
44 MPH...70 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS.  THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES...500 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND
NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON CRISTOBAL.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTNT24 KNHC 291449
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1500 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N  47.1W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  38 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT.......  0NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT.......100NE 140SE 100SW  70NW.
34 KT.......200NE 270SE 220SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 180SE 700SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N  47.1W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.4N  48.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 48.2N  41.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
50 KT...100NE 140SE 130SW 150NW.
34 KT...200NE 270SE 270SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 51.5N  35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  90SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT...200NE 250SE 250SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 55.0N  27.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 120SE 120SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 250SE 270SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.5N  47.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON CRISTOBAL.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTNT24 KNHC 291449
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1500 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N  47.1W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  38 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT.......  0NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT.......100NE 140SE 100SW  70NW.
34 KT.......200NE 270SE 220SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 180SE 700SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N  47.1W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.4N  48.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 48.2N  41.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
50 KT...100NE 140SE 130SW 150NW.
34 KT...200NE 270SE 270SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 51.5N  35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  90SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT...200NE 250SE 250SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 55.0N  27.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 120SE 120SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 250SE 270SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.5N  47.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON CRISTOBAL.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTNT34 KNHC 291449
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

...CRISTOBAL BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...45.5N 47.1W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 44 MPH...70 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.1
WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR
44 MPH...70 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS.  THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES...500 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND
NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON CRISTOBAL.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTNT34 KNHC 291449
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

...CRISTOBAL BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...45.5N 47.1W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 44 MPH...70 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.1
WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR
44 MPH...70 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS.  THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES...500 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND
NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON CRISTOBAL.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTNT24 KNHC 291449
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1500 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N  47.1W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  38 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT.......  0NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT.......100NE 140SE 100SW  70NW.
34 KT.......200NE 270SE 220SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 180SE 700SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N  47.1W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.4N  48.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 48.2N  41.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
50 KT...100NE 140SE 130SW 150NW.
34 KT...200NE 270SE 270SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 51.5N  35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  90SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT...200NE 250SE 250SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 55.0N  27.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 120SE 120SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 250SE 270SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.5N  47.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON CRISTOBAL.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTNT24 KNHC 291449
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1500 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N  47.1W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  38 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT.......  0NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT.......100NE 140SE 100SW  70NW.
34 KT.......200NE 270SE 220SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 180SE 700SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N  47.1W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.4N  48.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 48.2N  41.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
50 KT...100NE 140SE 130SW 150NW.
34 KT...200NE 270SE 270SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 51.5N  35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  90SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT...200NE 250SE 250SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 55.0N  27.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 120SE 120SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 250SE 270SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.5N  47.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON CRISTOBAL.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTNT34 KNHC 291449
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

...CRISTOBAL BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...45.5N 47.1W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 44 MPH...70 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.1
WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR
44 MPH...70 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS.  THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES...500 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND
NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON CRISTOBAL.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTNT34 KNHC 291449
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

...CRISTOBAL BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...45.5N 47.1W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 44 MPH...70 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.1
WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR
44 MPH...70 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS.  THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES...500 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND
NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON CRISTOBAL.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTNT24 KNHC 291449
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1500 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N  47.1W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  38 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT.......  0NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT.......100NE 140SE 100SW  70NW.
34 KT.......200NE 270SE 220SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 180SE 700SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N  47.1W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.4N  48.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 48.2N  41.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
50 KT...100NE 140SE 130SW 150NW.
34 KT...200NE 270SE 270SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 51.5N  35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  90SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT...200NE 250SE 250SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 55.0N  27.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 120SE 120SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 250SE 270SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.5N  47.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON CRISTOBAL.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTNT24 KNHC 291449
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1500 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N  47.1W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  38 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT.......  0NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT.......100NE 140SE 100SW  70NW.
34 KT.......200NE 270SE 220SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 180SE 700SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N  47.1W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.4N  48.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 48.2N  41.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
50 KT...100NE 140SE 130SW 150NW.
34 KT...200NE 270SE 270SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 51.5N  35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  90SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT...200NE 250SE 250SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 55.0N  27.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 120SE 120SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 250SE 270SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.5N  47.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON CRISTOBAL.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTNT34 KNHC 291449
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

...CRISTOBAL BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...45.5N 47.1W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 44 MPH...70 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.1
WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR
44 MPH...70 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS.  THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES...500 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND
NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON CRISTOBAL.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTNT34 KNHC 291449
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

...CRISTOBAL BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...45.5N 47.1W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 44 MPH...70 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.1
WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR
44 MPH...70 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS.  THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES...500 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND
NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON CRISTOBAL.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





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