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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052201
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL INDUCE
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
FUNNEL COLD AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY REACH GALE FORCE BY
TONIGHT...WITH PEAK WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT FORECAST TO PERSIST
TO FRI EVENING. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL STORM
INTENSITY FRI NIGHT. EXPECT PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALES IN THE
AREA THROUGH SUN MORNING. MAX SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 18-19
FT FRI MORNING...AND REACH A PEAK AROUND 20-21 FT BY LATE FRI.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 09N125W TO 10N133W TO BEYOND 08N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
FROM 08N TO 13N W OF 120W WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEA
HEIGHTS OF 8-11 FT ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS. EXPECT TRADES
TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA MOVES
AWAY AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH
30N140W BY SAT MORNING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GAP WIND EVENT STARTS IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AREA SHORTLY AFTER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT
STARTS. WIND AND SWELL FROM BOTH EVENTS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM AND MERGE IN AN AREA FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W AND
110W.

THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A FEW SHORT-LIVED BURSTS
OF 20 KT WINDS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER BURST OF 20-25
KNOT WINDS AND 6-7 FT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

EXPECT ALSO INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR
SEA OF CORTEZ TONIGHT AS A STRONG HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 30 KT ACROSS THE N
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON WITH BUILDING SEAS TO NEAR
8 FT.

$$
GR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052201
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL INDUCE
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
FUNNEL COLD AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY REACH GALE FORCE BY
TONIGHT...WITH PEAK WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT FORECAST TO PERSIST
TO FRI EVENING. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL STORM
INTENSITY FRI NIGHT. EXPECT PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALES IN THE
AREA THROUGH SUN MORNING. MAX SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 18-19
FT FRI MORNING...AND REACH A PEAK AROUND 20-21 FT BY LATE FRI.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 09N125W TO 10N133W TO BEYOND 08N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
FROM 08N TO 13N W OF 120W WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEA
HEIGHTS OF 8-11 FT ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS. EXPECT TRADES
TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA MOVES
AWAY AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH
30N140W BY SAT MORNING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GAP WIND EVENT STARTS IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AREA SHORTLY AFTER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT
STARTS. WIND AND SWELL FROM BOTH EVENTS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM AND MERGE IN AN AREA FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W AND
110W.

THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A FEW SHORT-LIVED BURSTS
OF 20 KT WINDS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER BURST OF 20-25
KNOT WINDS AND 6-7 FT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

EXPECT ALSO INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR
SEA OF CORTEZ TONIGHT AS A STRONG HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 30 KT ACROSS THE N
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON WITH BUILDING SEAS TO NEAR
8 FT.

$$
GR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 051740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 10.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. THE WINDS WILL BE BELOW
GALE FORCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THEN WILL RESUME LATER THIS
EVENING AND WILL PULSE OVERNIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NW GULF W OF A COLD FRONT
THAT AT 05/1200 UTC EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO. GALE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SE THROUGH SAT
MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N13W ALONG 4N15W TO 2N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 33W-
47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE PLAIN STATES TOWARD THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 05/1500 UTC
ENTERS THE GULF NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA ALONG 26N93W TO INLAND
OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 28N. STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS WITH DENSE LOW TO
MID CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERS THE GULF W OF
THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF EXTENDING
FROM 22N96W TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N95W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED
IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND INTO
THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO OVER THE
E GULF TO 90W. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES SE. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING OVER
THE SE GULF LATE FRI AND DISSIPATING SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE E ATLC THROUGH
THE W TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR COSTA RICA. RELATIVELY DRY AND
STABLE AIR WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN.
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO GIVE STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN
WITH THE WINDS PULSING TO GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. THESE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 20N E OF 79W AND S OF 17N
W OF 79W.

...HISPANIOLA...
THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON. THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS
COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N65W. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC ALONG 32N36W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N42W
CONTINUING INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N51W THEN ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC BASIN THAT IS SPLIT N OF 32N BY A
WEAK COLD FRONT. A 1032 MB HIGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
33N51W AND A 1031 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR 34N31W. THE GULF OF
MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA FRI. THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO/W ATLC THROUGH SAT WHILE THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE FRONT SHIFTS E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC LATE SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051611
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAR 5 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL INDUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL COLD AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE THU NIGHT. EXPECT SUDDEN
INCREASE IN WINDS TO GALE FORCE AT 0600 UTC EARLY FRI MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL STORM INTENSITY FRI
NIGHT. EXPECT PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALES IN THE AREA THROUGH SUN
MORNING. MAX SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 18-19 FT FRI MORNING...
AND REACH A PEAK AROUND 20-21 FT FRI NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 10N123W TO 07N135W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FROM 31N121W TO 14N119W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N95W TO 04N101W TO 02N109W.

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS SMALL AREA OF STRONG TRADES CENTERED
NEAR 10N115W ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE TROUGH FROM 05N118W TO
09N117W. EXPECT TRADES TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS HIGH
PRES N OF THE AREA MOVES AWAY AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GAP WINDS STARTS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
AREA SHORTLY AFTER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT STARTS.
WIND AND SWELL FROM BOTH EVENTS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE DOWNSTREAM
AND MERGE IN AN AREA FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 110W.

THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A FEW SHORT-LIVED BURSTS
OF 20 KT WINDS THROUGH SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER BURST
OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS AND 6-7 FT SEAS SAT AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051611
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAR 5 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL INDUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL COLD AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE THU NIGHT. EXPECT SUDDEN
INCREASE IN WINDS TO GALE FORCE AT 0600 UTC EARLY FRI MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL STORM INTENSITY FRI
NIGHT. EXPECT PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALES IN THE AREA THROUGH SUN
MORNING. MAX SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 18-19 FT FRI MORNING...
AND REACH A PEAK AROUND 20-21 FT FRI NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 10N123W TO 07N135W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FROM 31N121W TO 14N119W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N95W TO 04N101W TO 02N109W.

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS SMALL AREA OF STRONG TRADES CENTERED
NEAR 10N115W ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE TROUGH FROM 05N118W TO
09N117W. EXPECT TRADES TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS HIGH
PRES N OF THE AREA MOVES AWAY AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GAP WINDS STARTS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
AREA SHORTLY AFTER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT STARTS.
WIND AND SWELL FROM BOTH EVENTS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE DOWNSTREAM
AND MERGE IN AN AREA FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 110W.

THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A FEW SHORT-LIVED BURSTS
OF 20 KT WINDS THROUGH SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER BURST
OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS AND 6-7 FT SEAS SAT AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051611
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAR 5 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL INDUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL COLD AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE THU NIGHT. EXPECT SUDDEN
INCREASE IN WINDS TO GALE FORCE AT 0600 UTC EARLY FRI MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL STORM INTENSITY FRI
NIGHT. EXPECT PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALES IN THE AREA THROUGH SUN
MORNING. MAX SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 18-19 FT FRI MORNING...
AND REACH A PEAK AROUND 20-21 FT FRI NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 10N123W TO 07N135W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FROM 31N121W TO 14N119W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N95W TO 04N101W TO 02N109W.

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS SMALL AREA OF STRONG TRADES CENTERED
NEAR 10N115W ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE TROUGH FROM 05N118W TO
09N117W. EXPECT TRADES TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS HIGH
PRES N OF THE AREA MOVES AWAY AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GAP WINDS STARTS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
AREA SHORTLY AFTER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT STARTS.
WIND AND SWELL FROM BOTH EVENTS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE DOWNSTREAM
AND MERGE IN AN AREA FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 110W.

THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A FEW SHORT-LIVED BURSTS
OF 20 KT WINDS THROUGH SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER BURST
OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS AND 6-7 FT SEAS SAT AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051611
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAR 5 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL INDUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL COLD AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE THU NIGHT. EXPECT SUDDEN
INCREASE IN WINDS TO GALE FORCE AT 0600 UTC EARLY FRI MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL STORM INTENSITY FRI
NIGHT. EXPECT PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALES IN THE AREA THROUGH SUN
MORNING. MAX SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 18-19 FT FRI MORNING...
AND REACH A PEAK AROUND 20-21 FT FRI NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 10N123W TO 07N135W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FROM 31N121W TO 14N119W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N95W TO 04N101W TO 02N109W.

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS SMALL AREA OF STRONG TRADES CENTERED
NEAR 10N115W ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE TROUGH FROM 05N118W TO
09N117W. EXPECT TRADES TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS HIGH
PRES N OF THE AREA MOVES AWAY AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GAP WINDS STARTS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
AREA SHORTLY AFTER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT STARTS.
WIND AND SWELL FROM BOTH EVENTS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE DOWNSTREAM
AND MERGE IN AN AREA FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 110W.

THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A FEW SHORT-LIVED BURSTS
OF 20 KT WINDS THROUGH SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER BURST
OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS AND 6-7 FT SEAS SAT AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXNT20 KNHC 051153
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
10.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 10
AND 15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NW GULF ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED OFF THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COAST THIS
MORNING. GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE W OF THE FRONT
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONT MOVES E-SE. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W TO 04N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 30W THEN TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN
BRAZIL NEAR 01S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06S BETWEEN 12W AND 34W...AND FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 06N W OF 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 30N CONTINUES
TO EXTEND AN AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
EASTERN GULF. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN
BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT CAME OFF THE LOUISIANA
AND TEXAS COASTS THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
29N92W SW TO NE MEXICO NEAR 25N97W WITH GALE FORCE WINDS W OF
THE BOUNDARY. SE TO S WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT IS ELSEWHERE E OF
THE COLD FRONT. ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE BASIN WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE...EXCEPT FOR THE NW GULF WHERE MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC WATERS. OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE E OF THE FRONT FAVOR FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES DOMINATE. OVER THE NW GULF...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...FOG AND HAZE IS BEING REPORTED N
OF 25N W OF 90W AND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...COINCIDING WITH
MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES OF FOG. THE COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
TONIGHT AND WILL START DISSIPATING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FRIDAY
NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE W OF THE FRONT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE A RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER BASIN. RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER WIND PATTERN WHICH CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL
FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE
PATCHES ARE OBSERVED MAINLY S OF 15N AND OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN...POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. A SHALLOW
AIRMASS IS ALSO OBSERVED MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT
WATERS INCREASING THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OVER
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING SW
TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FRONT
ANALYZED AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM 30N41W SW TO 26N49W.
NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER
ATLC W AND E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N
ATLC WATERS FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051004
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO BY THURSDAY EVENING WILL INDUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL COLD AIR
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY.
THE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS...GALE
FORCE BY 06/0600 UTC ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL
RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 FEET. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 50 KNOTS...STORM FORCE BY 07/06OO UTC...EARLY ON
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE BEING FORECAST TO REACH TO
AT LEAST 19 FEET. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALSO AFTER THE STORM EVENT. THE GALE-FORCE
WIND EVENT STARTS FIRST, EARLY ON FRIDAY. THE STORM-FORCE WIND
EVENT STARTS 24 HOURS AFTER THE GALE-FORCE WIND EVENT STARTS.

A ROUND OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS STARTS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA
AT THE SAME TIME MORE OR LESS AS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE-
FORCE WIND EVENT STARTS. THE WIND AND SWELL FROM EACH EVENT IN
EACH GULF AREA EVENTUALLY CAUSES THE WINDS AND SEAS FROM THOSE
EVENTS TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM AND TO MERGE IN THE AREA GENERALLY
FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 90W AND 106W.

THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A FEW SHORT-LIVED ROUNDS
OF 20 KNOT WINDS DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
CYCLE. A BURST OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS AND 7 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS BEGINS
AROUND 54 HOURS. MORE PULSING OF AT LEAST 20 KNOT WINDS
CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE 72-HOUR TIME OF THE FORECAST
CYCLE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 08N122W TO 07N124W BEYOND 08N140W.05N96W TO 03N104W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N120W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N124W AND 09N124W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 130W EASTWARD.
MULTILAYERED MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N NORTHWARD FROM
130W WESTWARD.

ONE BRANCH OF A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N135W BEYOND
22N146W. A SECOND BRANCH OF A RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N131W TO
22N119W TO 13N104W.

AN EAST-TO-WEST SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 04N95W...TO A 1010 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 05N98W...TO 03N105W AND
03N108W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN
95W AND 105W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA THAT GOES FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 08N BETWEEN 95W AND 109W.

A NORTH-TO-SOUTH SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 12N115W 09N116W
05N117W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 08N TO
09N BETWEEN 115W AND 116W.

SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 05/038 UTC SHOW FRESH-TO-STRONG WINDS
FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 114W AND 118W...AND FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 126W AND 132W. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE SAME
AREA AND EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM 10N TO 17N FROM 116W
WESTWARD AT 24 HOURS. SEA HEIGHTS SHOULD BE IN THE 8 TO 9 FOOT
RANGE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS FOR 48 HOURS.

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051004
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO BY THURSDAY EVENING WILL INDUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL COLD AIR
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY.
THE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS...GALE
FORCE BY 06/0600 UTC ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL
RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 FEET. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 50 KNOTS...STORM FORCE BY 07/06OO UTC...EARLY ON
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE BEING FORECAST TO REACH TO
AT LEAST 19 FEET. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALSO AFTER THE STORM EVENT. THE GALE-FORCE
WIND EVENT STARTS FIRST, EARLY ON FRIDAY. THE STORM-FORCE WIND
EVENT STARTS 24 HOURS AFTER THE GALE-FORCE WIND EVENT STARTS.

A ROUND OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS STARTS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA
AT THE SAME TIME MORE OR LESS AS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE-
FORCE WIND EVENT STARTS. THE WIND AND SWELL FROM EACH EVENT IN
EACH GULF AREA EVENTUALLY CAUSES THE WINDS AND SEAS FROM THOSE
EVENTS TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM AND TO MERGE IN THE AREA GENERALLY
FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 90W AND 106W.

THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A FEW SHORT-LIVED ROUNDS
OF 20 KNOT WINDS DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
CYCLE. A BURST OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS AND 7 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS BEGINS
AROUND 54 HOURS. MORE PULSING OF AT LEAST 20 KNOT WINDS
CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE 72-HOUR TIME OF THE FORECAST
CYCLE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 08N122W TO 07N124W BEYOND 08N140W.05N96W TO 03N104W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N120W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N124W AND 09N124W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 130W EASTWARD.
MULTILAYERED MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N NORTHWARD FROM
130W WESTWARD.

ONE BRANCH OF A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N135W BEYOND
22N146W. A SECOND BRANCH OF A RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N131W TO
22N119W TO 13N104W.

AN EAST-TO-WEST SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 04N95W...TO A 1010 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 05N98W...TO 03N105W AND
03N108W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN
95W AND 105W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA THAT GOES FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 08N BETWEEN 95W AND 109W.

A NORTH-TO-SOUTH SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 12N115W 09N116W
05N117W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 08N TO
09N BETWEEN 115W AND 116W.

SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 05/038 UTC SHOW FRESH-TO-STRONG WINDS
FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 114W AND 118W...AND FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 126W AND 132W. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE SAME
AREA AND EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM 10N TO 17N FROM 116W
WESTWARD AT 24 HOURS. SEA HEIGHTS SHOULD BE IN THE 8 TO 9 FOOT
RANGE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS FOR 48 HOURS.

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 050600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND
15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO START DURING THURSDAY MORNING
HOURS WEST OF A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS
COAST. GALE CONDITIONS W OF FRONT ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONT MOVES E-SE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 04N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01N35W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07S
BETWEEN 26W AND 31W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N W OF 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 34N49W
CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND THE EASTERN GULF. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT TO EXIT THE
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTS LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERN PROVIDES WITH SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE BASIN AT
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING
RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. WITH OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE
S OF 27N. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE NW GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTING BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...FOG AND HAZE IS BEING
REPORTED N OF 27N W OF 92W AND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES OF FOG.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF LATER THIS MORNING
INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES AS WELL AS
GALE FORCE CONDITIONS W OF THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE A RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER BASIN. RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER WIND PATTERN WHICH CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL
FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE
PATCHES ARE OBSERVED MAINLY S OF 15N AND OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN...POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. A SHALLOW
AIRMASS IS ALSO OBSERVED OVER PUERTO RICO POSSIBLY GENERATING
TRADE WIND SHOWERS THIS MORNING. TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE
OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE
ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A NARROW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
A FRONT ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 31N40W SW TO 26N51W WHERE
IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN
THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
MOVE N OF 30N LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER ATLC
W AND E OF THE FRONT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...A 1030 MB
HIGH NEAR 34N49W AND A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 39N38W. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 050600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND
15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO START DURING THURSDAY MORNING
HOURS WEST OF A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS
COAST. GALE CONDITIONS W OF FRONT ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONT MOVES E-SE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 04N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01N35W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07S
BETWEEN 26W AND 31W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N W OF 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 34N49W
CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND THE EASTERN GULF. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT TO EXIT THE
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTS LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERN PROVIDES WITH SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE BASIN AT
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING
RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. WITH OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE
S OF 27N. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE NW GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTING BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...FOG AND HAZE IS BEING
REPORTED N OF 27N W OF 92W AND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES OF FOG.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF LATER THIS MORNING
INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES AS WELL AS
GALE FORCE CONDITIONS W OF THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE A RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER BASIN. RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER WIND PATTERN WHICH CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL
FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE
PATCHES ARE OBSERVED MAINLY S OF 15N AND OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN...POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. A SHALLOW
AIRMASS IS ALSO OBSERVED OVER PUERTO RICO POSSIBLY GENERATING
TRADE WIND SHOWERS THIS MORNING. TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE
OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE
ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A NARROW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
A FRONT ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 31N40W SW TO 26N51W WHERE
IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN
THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
MOVE N OF 30N LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER ATLC
W AND E OF THE FRONT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...A 1030 MB
HIGH NEAR 34N49W AND A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 39N38W. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 050600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND
15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO START DURING THURSDAY MORNING
HOURS WEST OF A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS
COAST. GALE CONDITIONS W OF FRONT ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONT MOVES E-SE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 04N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01N35W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07S
BETWEEN 26W AND 31W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N W OF 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 34N49W
CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND THE EASTERN GULF. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT TO EXIT THE
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTS LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERN PROVIDES WITH SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE BASIN AT
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING
RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. WITH OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE
S OF 27N. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE NW GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTING BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...FOG AND HAZE IS BEING
REPORTED N OF 27N W OF 92W AND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES OF FOG.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF LATER THIS MORNING
INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES AS WELL AS
GALE FORCE CONDITIONS W OF THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE A RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER BASIN. RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER WIND PATTERN WHICH CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL
FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE
PATCHES ARE OBSERVED MAINLY S OF 15N AND OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN...POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. A SHALLOW
AIRMASS IS ALSO OBSERVED OVER PUERTO RICO POSSIBLY GENERATING
TRADE WIND SHOWERS THIS MORNING. TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE
OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE
ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A NARROW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
A FRONT ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 31N40W SW TO 26N51W WHERE
IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN
THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
MOVE N OF 30N LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER ATLC
W AND E OF THE FRONT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...A 1030 MB
HIGH NEAR 34N49W AND A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 39N38W. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 050600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND
15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO START DURING THURSDAY MORNING
HOURS WEST OF A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS
COAST. GALE CONDITIONS W OF FRONT ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONT MOVES E-SE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 04N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01N35W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07S
BETWEEN 26W AND 31W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N W OF 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 34N49W
CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND THE EASTERN GULF. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT TO EXIT THE
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTS LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERN PROVIDES WITH SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE BASIN AT
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING
RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. WITH OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE
S OF 27N. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE NW GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTING BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...FOG AND HAZE IS BEING
REPORTED N OF 27N W OF 92W AND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES OF FOG.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF LATER THIS MORNING
INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES AS WELL AS
GALE FORCE CONDITIONS W OF THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE A RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER BASIN. RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER WIND PATTERN WHICH CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL
FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE
PATCHES ARE OBSERVED MAINLY S OF 15N AND OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN...POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. A SHALLOW
AIRMASS IS ALSO OBSERVED OVER PUERTO RICO POSSIBLY GENERATING
TRADE WIND SHOWERS THIS MORNING. TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE
OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE
ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A NARROW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
A FRONT ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 31N40W SW TO 26N51W WHERE
IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN
THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
MOVE N OF 30N LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER ATLC
W AND E OF THE FRONT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...A 1030 MB
HIGH NEAR 34N49W AND A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 39N38W. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050230
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO BY THU EVENING WILL INDUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL COLD AIR
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVERNIGHT
THU. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 40 KT...GALE FORCE BY
0600 UTC FRI MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER TO 50 KT...STORM FORCE BY FRI
EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 18 TO 20 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUN...WITH SEAS
TO 12 FT IN NE SWELL SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST
PACIFIC N OF 05N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W BY SUN.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

WIND CONVERGENCE IS VERY WEAK IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WITH
THE AXIS OF THE ITCZ NOTED FROM 02N83W TO 05N96W TO 03N104W. THE
PRIMARY CONVERGENCE ZONE IS BEGINNING TO SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 105W AND1 40W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS
NOTED ALONG THE PORTION OF THE ITCZ N OF THE EQUATOR.

LINGERING TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N115W TO 11N112W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WELL REMOVED FROM THE TROUGH
AND FOCUSED IN AN AREA FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 108W AND 111W.

...DISCUSSION...

A FAIRLY SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES  EXTENDS FROM ARIZONA TO A BASE NEAR 17N125W. THE
SURFACE TROUGH NOTED EARLIER FROM 22N106W TO 13N118W HAS
DISSIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC BUILDS
SE.

A 1920 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS INDICATED AN AREA OF FRESH
TRADES FROM 11N TO 14N W OF 125W. EXPECT THE TRADES TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA SHIFTS
EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT.

PULSING GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA E OF 95W...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 25 KT DURING MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY THU. STEADIER GAP
WINDS ARE FORECAST BY EARLY FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT THU NIGHT IN
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS NW
MEXICO AND HIGH PRES BUILDS W OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS WILL PEAK AT
30 KT LOCALLY EARLY FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.

$$
COBB


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050230
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO BY THU EVENING WILL INDUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL COLD AIR
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVERNIGHT
THU. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 40 KT...GALE FORCE BY
0600 UTC FRI MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER TO 50 KT...STORM FORCE BY FRI
EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 18 TO 20 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUN...WITH SEAS
TO 12 FT IN NE SWELL SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST
PACIFIC N OF 05N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W BY SUN.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

WIND CONVERGENCE IS VERY WEAK IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WITH
THE AXIS OF THE ITCZ NOTED FROM 02N83W TO 05N96W TO 03N104W. THE
PRIMARY CONVERGENCE ZONE IS BEGINNING TO SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 105W AND1 40W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS
NOTED ALONG THE PORTION OF THE ITCZ N OF THE EQUATOR.

LINGERING TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N115W TO 11N112W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WELL REMOVED FROM THE TROUGH
AND FOCUSED IN AN AREA FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 108W AND 111W.

...DISCUSSION...

A FAIRLY SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES  EXTENDS FROM ARIZONA TO A BASE NEAR 17N125W. THE
SURFACE TROUGH NOTED EARLIER FROM 22N106W TO 13N118W HAS
DISSIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC BUILDS
SE.

A 1920 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS INDICATED AN AREA OF FRESH
TRADES FROM 11N TO 14N W OF 125W. EXPECT THE TRADES TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA SHIFTS
EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT.

PULSING GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA E OF 95W...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 25 KT DURING MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY THU. STEADIER GAP
WINDS ARE FORECAST BY EARLY FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT THU NIGHT IN
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS NW
MEXICO AND HIGH PRES BUILDS W OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS WILL PEAK AT
30 KT LOCALLY EARLY FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.

$$
COBB



000
AXNT20 KNHC 042351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA AT 0000 UTC THU FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W
WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 13 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC THU. A GALE IS AGAIN
FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT AT 0000 UTC FRI AND FORECAST TO
CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC FRI. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO AT 0600 UTC THU WITHIN 60 NM OF SHORE W OF COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM 30N91W TO 25N97W. GALE CONDITIONS W OF FRONT ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC FRI...AS THE FRONT MOVES SE.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 5N9W TO 2N12W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 0N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-4S BETWEEN 27W-30W...AND FROM 1S-
4S BETWEEN 41W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

10-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER AND WARM ADVECTION. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST. GOES-R IMAGERY SHOWS
PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE GULF COAST
FROM LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO. IN THE UPPER
LEVEL...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
88W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO
VERACRUZ MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION N OF
FRONT. A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE NW
GULF N OF FRONT AT 0600 UTC THU AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL
1800 UTC FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA AT 0000 UTC THU. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON AND
OFF FOR THE NEXT48 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER INLAND HONDURAS. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM THE EAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N51W. THE
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N44W TO 27N50W TO 26N57W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF FRONT. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 47N10W. IN THE TROPICS...AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-4S
BETWEEN 43W-57W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-55W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 35N23W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO BE PREDOMINATELY N
OF 30N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 042351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA AT 0000 UTC THU FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W
WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 13 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC THU. A GALE IS AGAIN
FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT AT 0000 UTC FRI AND FORECAST TO
CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC FRI. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO AT 0600 UTC THU WITHIN 60 NM OF SHORE W OF COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM 30N91W TO 25N97W. GALE CONDITIONS W OF FRONT ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC FRI...AS THE FRONT MOVES SE.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 5N9W TO 2N12W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 0N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-4S BETWEEN 27W-30W...AND FROM 1S-
4S BETWEEN 41W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

10-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER AND WARM ADVECTION. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST. GOES-R IMAGERY SHOWS
PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE GULF COAST
FROM LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO. IN THE UPPER
LEVEL...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
88W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO
VERACRUZ MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION N OF
FRONT. A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE NW
GULF N OF FRONT AT 0600 UTC THU AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL
1800 UTC FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA AT 0000 UTC THU. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON AND
OFF FOR THE NEXT48 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER INLAND HONDURAS. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM THE EAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N51W. THE
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N44W TO 27N50W TO 26N57W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF FRONT. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 47N10W. IN THE TROPICS...AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-4S
BETWEEN 43W-57W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-55W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 35N23W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO BE PREDOMINATELY N
OF 30N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 042351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA AT 0000 UTC THU FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W
WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 13 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC THU. A GALE IS AGAIN
FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT AT 0000 UTC FRI AND FORECAST TO
CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC FRI. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO AT 0600 UTC THU WITHIN 60 NM OF SHORE W OF COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM 30N91W TO 25N97W. GALE CONDITIONS W OF FRONT ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC FRI...AS THE FRONT MOVES SE.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 5N9W TO 2N12W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 0N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-4S BETWEEN 27W-30W...AND FROM 1S-
4S BETWEEN 41W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

10-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER AND WARM ADVECTION. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST. GOES-R IMAGERY SHOWS
PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE GULF COAST
FROM LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO. IN THE UPPER
LEVEL...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
88W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO
VERACRUZ MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION N OF
FRONT. A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE NW
GULF N OF FRONT AT 0600 UTC THU AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL
1800 UTC FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA AT 0000 UTC THU. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON AND
OFF FOR THE NEXT48 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER INLAND HONDURAS. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM THE EAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N51W. THE
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N44W TO 27N50W TO 26N57W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF FRONT. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 47N10W. IN THE TROPICS...AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-4S
BETWEEN 43W-57W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-55W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 35N23W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO BE PREDOMINATELY N
OF 30N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 042351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA AT 0000 UTC THU FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W
WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 13 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC THU. A GALE IS AGAIN
FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT AT 0000 UTC FRI AND FORECAST TO
CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC FRI. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO AT 0600 UTC THU WITHIN 60 NM OF SHORE W OF COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM 30N91W TO 25N97W. GALE CONDITIONS W OF FRONT ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC FRI...AS THE FRONT MOVES SE.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 5N9W TO 2N12W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 0N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-4S BETWEEN 27W-30W...AND FROM 1S-
4S BETWEEN 41W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

10-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER AND WARM ADVECTION. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST. GOES-R IMAGERY SHOWS
PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE GULF COAST
FROM LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO. IN THE UPPER
LEVEL...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
88W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO
VERACRUZ MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION N OF
FRONT. A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE NW
GULF N OF FRONT AT 0600 UTC THU AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL
1800 UTC FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA AT 0000 UTC THU. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON AND
OFF FOR THE NEXT48 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER INLAND HONDURAS. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM THE EAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N51W. THE
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N44W TO 27N50W TO 26N57W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF FRONT. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 47N10W. IN THE TROPICS...AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-4S
BETWEEN 43W-57W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-55W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 35N23W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO BE PREDOMINATELY N
OF 30N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042202
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL INDUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL COLD AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVERNIGHT THU. EXPECT SUDDEN
INCREASE IN WINDS TO GALE FORCE BY 0600 UTC EARLY FRI MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG GALE FORCE....POSSIBLY
STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE REGION THROUGH SUN MORNING. MAX SEAS
WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15-16 FT FRI MORNING ...AND REACH A PEAK
AROUND 18-20 FT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

WIND CONVERGENCE NEGLIGIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE TODAY AS
PRIMARY CONVERGENCE ZONE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. WEAK ITCZ
IS ANALYZED FROM 06N132W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

LINGERING TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N115W TO 11N112W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 111W
AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

A FAIRLY SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA TO A BASE NEAR 17N125W. THIS TROUGH IS
PROVIDING LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N106W TO
13N118W.

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADES CENTERED
NEAR 14N133W. EXPECT TRADES TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS
HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA MOVES AWAY AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
COLD FRONT.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE
TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST
OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS REACHING 25 KT DURING MAXIMUM
DRAINAGE FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN THU.

NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT THU NIGHT IN
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS NW
MEXICO AND HIGH PRES BUILDS W OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING LOCALLY TO 8 FT.

$$
COBB



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042202
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL INDUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL COLD AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVERNIGHT THU. EXPECT SUDDEN
INCREASE IN WINDS TO GALE FORCE BY 0600 UTC EARLY FRI MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG GALE FORCE....POSSIBLY
STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE REGION THROUGH SUN MORNING. MAX SEAS
WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15-16 FT FRI MORNING ...AND REACH A PEAK
AROUND 18-20 FT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

WIND CONVERGENCE NEGLIGIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE TODAY AS
PRIMARY CONVERGENCE ZONE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. WEAK ITCZ
IS ANALYZED FROM 06N132W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

LINGERING TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N115W TO 11N112W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 111W
AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

A FAIRLY SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA TO A BASE NEAR 17N125W. THIS TROUGH IS
PROVIDING LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N106W TO
13N118W.

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADES CENTERED
NEAR 14N133W. EXPECT TRADES TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS
HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA MOVES AWAY AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
COLD FRONT.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE
TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST
OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS REACHING 25 KT DURING MAXIMUM
DRAINAGE FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN THU.

NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT THU NIGHT IN
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS NW
MEXICO AND HIGH PRES BUILDS W OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING LOCALLY TO 8 FT.

$$
COBB


000
AXNT20 KNHC 041727
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 9
TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RESUMING AGAIN OVERNIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...DEVELOPING GALE IN THE GULF...

THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY PREVAILING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF WILL MOVE EASTWARD LATER TODAY AND A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS BY TONIGHT.
WITH THIS...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFFECTING THE WESTERN
GULF N OF 27N AND W OF 95W BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PREVAILING
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W SW TO 05N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04S30W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
03S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N55W
IS EXTENDING ITS AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
GULF...KEEPING A GENTLE TO MODERATE SE FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS
THE BASIN. DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED AT THE
SURFACE...AND WITH STABLE CONDITIONS AT UPPER LEVELS ALSO...THE
BASIN CONTINUES UNDER BENIGN WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS
ENTERING THE NW GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT. PLEASE REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS
PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. DESPITE THIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADE WINDS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE OBSERVED IN
SCATTEROMETER DATA MAINLY E OF 80W WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE NE
FLOW IS W OF 80W. A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE
AREA N OF COLOMBIA...FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
FOR THE GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST TO DIMINISH A
BIT THIS AFTERNOON BUT PICKING UP SPEED AGAIN OVERNIGHT. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE W CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY
ENHANCING CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES
GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N55W
IS COVERING MOST OF THE BASIN W OF 40W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.
TO THE SE OF THIS FEATURE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PREVAILS. THE
FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE N-CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT FROM
31N44W TO 27N54W. FROM THIS LAST POINT...THE FRONT BECOMES
WEAK...EXTENDING TO 27N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 29N BETWEEN 38W-45W. A
1041 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 46N12W EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE
E ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO DISSIPATE.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 041727
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 9
TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RESUMING AGAIN OVERNIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...DEVELOPING GALE IN THE GULF...

THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY PREVAILING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF WILL MOVE EASTWARD LATER TODAY AND A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS BY TONIGHT.
WITH THIS...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFFECTING THE WESTERN
GULF N OF 27N AND W OF 95W BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PREVAILING
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W SW TO 05N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04S30W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
03S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N55W
IS EXTENDING ITS AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
GULF...KEEPING A GENTLE TO MODERATE SE FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS
THE BASIN. DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED AT THE
SURFACE...AND WITH STABLE CONDITIONS AT UPPER LEVELS ALSO...THE
BASIN CONTINUES UNDER BENIGN WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS
ENTERING THE NW GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT. PLEASE REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS
PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. DESPITE THIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADE WINDS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE OBSERVED IN
SCATTEROMETER DATA MAINLY E OF 80W WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE NE
FLOW IS W OF 80W. A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE
AREA N OF COLOMBIA...FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
FOR THE GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST TO DIMINISH A
BIT THIS AFTERNOON BUT PICKING UP SPEED AGAIN OVERNIGHT. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE W CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY
ENHANCING CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES
GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N55W
IS COVERING MOST OF THE BASIN W OF 40W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.
TO THE SE OF THIS FEATURE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PREVAILS. THE
FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE N-CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT FROM
31N44W TO 27N54W. FROM THIS LAST POINT...THE FRONT BECOMES
WEAK...EXTENDING TO 27N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 29N BETWEEN 38W-45W. A
1041 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 46N12W EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE
E ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO DISSIPATE.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 041727
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 9
TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RESUMING AGAIN OVERNIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...DEVELOPING GALE IN THE GULF...

THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY PREVAILING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF WILL MOVE EASTWARD LATER TODAY AND A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS BY TONIGHT.
WITH THIS...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFFECTING THE WESTERN
GULF N OF 27N AND W OF 95W BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PREVAILING
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W SW TO 05N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04S30W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
03S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N55W
IS EXTENDING ITS AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
GULF...KEEPING A GENTLE TO MODERATE SE FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS
THE BASIN. DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED AT THE
SURFACE...AND WITH STABLE CONDITIONS AT UPPER LEVELS ALSO...THE
BASIN CONTINUES UNDER BENIGN WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS
ENTERING THE NW GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT. PLEASE REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS
PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. DESPITE THIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADE WINDS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE OBSERVED IN
SCATTEROMETER DATA MAINLY E OF 80W WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE NE
FLOW IS W OF 80W. A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE
AREA N OF COLOMBIA...FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
FOR THE GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST TO DIMINISH A
BIT THIS AFTERNOON BUT PICKING UP SPEED AGAIN OVERNIGHT. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE W CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY
ENHANCING CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES
GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N55W
IS COVERING MOST OF THE BASIN W OF 40W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.
TO THE SE OF THIS FEATURE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PREVAILS. THE
FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE N-CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT FROM
31N44W TO 27N54W. FROM THIS LAST POINT...THE FRONT BECOMES
WEAK...EXTENDING TO 27N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 29N BETWEEN 38W-45W. A
1041 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 46N12W EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE
E ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO DISSIPATE.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 041727
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 9
TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RESUMING AGAIN OVERNIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...DEVELOPING GALE IN THE GULF...

THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY PREVAILING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF WILL MOVE EASTWARD LATER TODAY AND A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS BY TONIGHT.
WITH THIS...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFFECTING THE WESTERN
GULF N OF 27N AND W OF 95W BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PREVAILING
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W SW TO 05N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04S30W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
03S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N55W
IS EXTENDING ITS AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
GULF...KEEPING A GENTLE TO MODERATE SE FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS
THE BASIN. DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED AT THE
SURFACE...AND WITH STABLE CONDITIONS AT UPPER LEVELS ALSO...THE
BASIN CONTINUES UNDER BENIGN WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS
ENTERING THE NW GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT. PLEASE REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS
PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. DESPITE THIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADE WINDS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE OBSERVED IN
SCATTEROMETER DATA MAINLY E OF 80W WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE NE
FLOW IS W OF 80W. A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE
AREA N OF COLOMBIA...FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
FOR THE GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST TO DIMINISH A
BIT THIS AFTERNOON BUT PICKING UP SPEED AGAIN OVERNIGHT. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE W CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY
ENHANCING CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES
GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N55W
IS COVERING MOST OF THE BASIN W OF 40W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.
TO THE SE OF THIS FEATURE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PREVAILS. THE
FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE N-CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT FROM
31N44W TO 27N54W. FROM THIS LAST POINT...THE FRONT BECOMES
WEAK...EXTENDING TO 27N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 29N BETWEEN 38W-45W. A
1041 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 46N12W EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE
E ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO DISSIPATE.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041525
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAR 4 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL INDUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL COLD AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE THU NIGHT. EXPECT SUDDEN
INCREASE IN WINDS TO GALE FORCE AT 0600 UTC EARLY FRI MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALES IN THE REGION THROUGH SUN
MORNING. MAX SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15-16 FT EARLY FRI...AND
REACH A PEAK AROUND 18-20 FT FRI NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

WIND CONVERGENCE NEGLIGIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE TODAY AS
PRIMARY CONVERGENCE ZONE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. WEAK ITCZ
IS ANALYZED FROM 06N132W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

LINGERING TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N115W TO 15N111W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 111W
AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 15N121W. A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 25N109W TO 14N118W IS A REMNANT COLD FRONT.

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADES CENTERED
NEAR 14N133W. EXPECT TRADES TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS
HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA MOVES AWAY AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
COLD FRONT.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE
TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST
OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS REACHING 25 KT DURING MAXIMUM
DRAINAGE FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN THU.

NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THU NIGHT IN NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS NW MEXICO AND HIGH PRES
BUILDS W OF CALIFORNIA. 20-25 KT NW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 26N
LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041525
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAR 4 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL INDUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL COLD AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE THU NIGHT. EXPECT SUDDEN
INCREASE IN WINDS TO GALE FORCE AT 0600 UTC EARLY FRI MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALES IN THE REGION THROUGH SUN
MORNING. MAX SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15-16 FT EARLY FRI...AND
REACH A PEAK AROUND 18-20 FT FRI NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

WIND CONVERGENCE NEGLIGIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE TODAY AS
PRIMARY CONVERGENCE ZONE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. WEAK ITCZ
IS ANALYZED FROM 06N132W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

LINGERING TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N115W TO 15N111W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 111W
AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 15N121W. A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 25N109W TO 14N118W IS A REMNANT COLD FRONT.

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADES CENTERED
NEAR 14N133W. EXPECT TRADES TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS
HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA MOVES AWAY AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
COLD FRONT.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE
TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST
OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS REACHING 25 KT DURING MAXIMUM
DRAINAGE FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN THU.

NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THU NIGHT IN NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS NW MEXICO AND HIGH PRES
BUILDS W OF CALIFORNIA. 20-25 KT NW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 26N
LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXNT20 KNHC 041139
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 9 TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W SW TO 04N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S32W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ W OF 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE W ATLC NEAR
35N59W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THE GULF...THUS PROVIDING WITH SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. WITH
OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE S OF 26N. HOWEVER...LINGERING
SHALLOW MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS FOG OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 29N E OF
88W...THIS COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES...WITH GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO A BROAD BASE OVER PANAMA. RELATIVELY
DRY AND STABLE AIR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN THUS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN...PUERTO RICO...HAITI AND CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL
WATERS. TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE OVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT
FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED CLOUDS
ACROSS THE ISLAND...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING POSSIBLE SHOWERS
DURING THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER HISPANIOLA STARTING THIS EVENING THROUGHOUT SATURDAY
MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM
30N49W SW TO 27N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT N OF 28N W OF 42W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR
45N13W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY
MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 041139
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 9 TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W SW TO 04N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S32W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ W OF 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE W ATLC NEAR
35N59W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THE GULF...THUS PROVIDING WITH SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. WITH
OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE S OF 26N. HOWEVER...LINGERING
SHALLOW MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS FOG OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 29N E OF
88W...THIS COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES...WITH GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO A BROAD BASE OVER PANAMA. RELATIVELY
DRY AND STABLE AIR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN THUS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN...PUERTO RICO...HAITI AND CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL
WATERS. TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE OVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT
FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED CLOUDS
ACROSS THE ISLAND...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING POSSIBLE SHOWERS
DURING THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER HISPANIOLA STARTING THIS EVENING THROUGHOUT SATURDAY
MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM
30N49W SW TO 27N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT N OF 28N W OF 42W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR
45N13W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY
MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 041139
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 9 TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W SW TO 04N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S32W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ W OF 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE W ATLC NEAR
35N59W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THE GULF...THUS PROVIDING WITH SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. WITH
OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE S OF 26N. HOWEVER...LINGERING
SHALLOW MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS FOG OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 29N E OF
88W...THIS COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES...WITH GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO A BROAD BASE OVER PANAMA. RELATIVELY
DRY AND STABLE AIR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN THUS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN...PUERTO RICO...HAITI AND CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL
WATERS. TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE OVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT
FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED CLOUDS
ACROSS THE ISLAND...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING POSSIBLE SHOWERS
DURING THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER HISPANIOLA STARTING THIS EVENING THROUGHOUT SATURDAY
MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM
30N49W SW TO 27N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT N OF 28N W OF 42W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR
45N13W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY
MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 041138
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 9 TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W SW TO 04N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S32W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ W OF 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE W ATLC NEAR
35N59W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THE GULF...THUS PROVIDING WITH SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. WITH
OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE S OF 26N. HOWEVER...LINGERING
SHALLOW MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS FOG OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 29N E OF
88W...THIS COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES...WITH GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO A BROAD BASE OVER PANAMA. RELATIVELY
DRY AND STABLE AIR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN THUS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN...PUERTO RICO...HAITI AND CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL
WATERS. TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE OVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT
FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED CLOUDS
ACROSS THE ISLAND...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING POSSIBLE SHOWERS
DURING THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER HISPANIOLA STARTING THIS EVENING THROUGHOUT SATURDAY
MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM
30N49W SW TO 27N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT N OF 28N W OF 42W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR
45N13W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY
MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 041138
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 9 TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W SW TO 04N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S32W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ W OF 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE W ATLC NEAR
35N59W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THE GULF...THUS PROVIDING WITH SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. WITH
OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE S OF 26N. HOWEVER...LINGERING
SHALLOW MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS FOG OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 29N E OF
88W...THIS COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES...WITH GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO A BROAD BASE OVER PANAMA. RELATIVELY
DRY AND STABLE AIR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN THUS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN...PUERTO RICO...HAITI AND CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL
WATERS. TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE OVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT
FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED CLOUDS
ACROSS THE ISLAND...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING POSSIBLE SHOWERS
DURING THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER HISPANIOLA STARTING THIS EVENING THROUGHOUT SATURDAY
MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM
30N49W SW TO 27N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT N OF 28N W OF 42W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR
45N13W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY
MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 041138
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 9 TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W SW TO 04N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S32W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ W OF 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE W ATLC NEAR
35N59W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THE GULF...THUS PROVIDING WITH SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. WITH
OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE S OF 26N. HOWEVER...LINGERING
SHALLOW MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS FOG OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 29N E OF
88W...THIS COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES...WITH GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO A BROAD BASE OVER PANAMA. RELATIVELY
DRY AND STABLE AIR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN THUS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN...PUERTO RICO...HAITI AND CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL
WATERS. TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE OVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT
FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED CLOUDS
ACROSS THE ISLAND...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING POSSIBLE SHOWERS
DURING THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER HISPANIOLA STARTING THIS EVENING THROUGHOUT SATURDAY
MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM
30N49W SW TO 27N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT N OF 28N W OF 42W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR
45N13W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY
MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 041138
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 9 TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W SW TO 04N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S32W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ W OF 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE W ATLC NEAR
35N59W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THE GULF...THUS PROVIDING WITH SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. WITH
OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE S OF 26N. HOWEVER...LINGERING
SHALLOW MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS FOG OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 29N E OF
88W...THIS COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES...WITH GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO A BROAD BASE OVER PANAMA. RELATIVELY
DRY AND STABLE AIR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN THUS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN...PUERTO RICO...HAITI AND CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL
WATERS. TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE OVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT
FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED CLOUDS
ACROSS THE ISLAND...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING POSSIBLE SHOWERS
DURING THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER HISPANIOLA STARTING THIS EVENING THROUGHOUT SATURDAY
MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM
30N49W SW TO 27N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT N OF 28N W OF 42W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR
45N13W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY
MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041005
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN 48 HOURS...

GALE-FORCE NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WINDS...RANGING FROM 30 TO 40
KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET...WILL DEVELOP IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 48 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N103W TO 06N108W TO 04N121W TO 07N140W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM THE ITCZ TO
10N FROM 128W WESTWARD.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N87W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 05N91W...TO 03N95W TO 04N98W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 95W AND
97W.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N111W TO 10N114W TO 06N115W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 08N TO 12N
BETWEEN 107W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE NORTHERN
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 15N126W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS THE
REMNANT OF THE EARLIER COLD FRONT.

SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM YESTERDAY SHOWED TRADEWIND FLOW FROM 10N
TO 20N FROM 130W WESTWARD. THIS TRADEWIND FLOW AND SEA HEIGHTS
FROM 8 TO 10 FEET CONTINUING THROUGH 48 HOURS.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE
TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST
OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW DURING
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN
THU.

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BENIGN FOR
MOST OF THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. THE 48-HOUR FORECAST SHOWS A
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WITH A COLD FRONT...
BURSTING TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 25 KT THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WIND FLOW WEAKENS IN SPEED DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS PICK UP MORE TO 20
KNOTS MORE DOWNSTREAM FROM PAPAGAYO THAN IN THE GULF AREA ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 20 KNOT WINDS
RETURN IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN
THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO 04N-05N THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN
WEAKEN EARLY THURSDAY BELOW 20 KNOTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS.

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041005
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN 48 HOURS...

GALE-FORCE NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WINDS...RANGING FROM 30 TO 40
KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET...WILL DEVELOP IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 48 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N103W TO 06N108W TO 04N121W TO 07N140W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM THE ITCZ TO
10N FROM 128W WESTWARD.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N87W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 05N91W...TO 03N95W TO 04N98W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 95W AND
97W.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N111W TO 10N114W TO 06N115W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 08N TO 12N
BETWEEN 107W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE NORTHERN
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 15N126W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS THE
REMNANT OF THE EARLIER COLD FRONT.

SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM YESTERDAY SHOWED TRADEWIND FLOW FROM 10N
TO 20N FROM 130W WESTWARD. THIS TRADEWIND FLOW AND SEA HEIGHTS
FROM 8 TO 10 FEET CONTINUING THROUGH 48 HOURS.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE
TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST
OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW DURING
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN
THU.

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BENIGN FOR
MOST OF THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. THE 48-HOUR FORECAST SHOWS A
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WITH A COLD FRONT...
BURSTING TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 25 KT THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WIND FLOW WEAKENS IN SPEED DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS PICK UP MORE TO 20
KNOTS MORE DOWNSTREAM FROM PAPAGAYO THAN IN THE GULF AREA ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 20 KNOT WINDS
RETURN IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN
THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO 04N-05N THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN
WEAKEN EARLY THURSDAY BELOW 20 KNOTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS.

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041005
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN 48 HOURS...

GALE-FORCE NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WINDS...RANGING FROM 30 TO 40
KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET...WILL DEVELOP IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 48 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N103W TO 06N108W TO 04N121W TO 07N140W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM THE ITCZ TO
10N FROM 128W WESTWARD.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N87W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 05N91W...TO 03N95W TO 04N98W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 95W AND
97W.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N111W TO 10N114W TO 06N115W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 08N TO 12N
BETWEEN 107W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE NORTHERN
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 15N126W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS THE
REMNANT OF THE EARLIER COLD FRONT.

SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM YESTERDAY SHOWED TRADEWIND FLOW FROM 10N
TO 20N FROM 130W WESTWARD. THIS TRADEWIND FLOW AND SEA HEIGHTS
FROM 8 TO 10 FEET CONTINUING THROUGH 48 HOURS.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE
TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST
OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW DURING
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN
THU.

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BENIGN FOR
MOST OF THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. THE 48-HOUR FORECAST SHOWS A
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WITH A COLD FRONT...
BURSTING TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 25 KT THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WIND FLOW WEAKENS IN SPEED DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS PICK UP MORE TO 20
KNOTS MORE DOWNSTREAM FROM PAPAGAYO THAN IN THE GULF AREA ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 20 KNOT WINDS
RETURN IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN
THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO 04N-05N THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN
WEAKEN EARLY THURSDAY BELOW 20 KNOTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS.

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041005
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN 48 HOURS...

GALE-FORCE NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WINDS...RANGING FROM 30 TO 40
KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET...WILL DEVELOP IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 48 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N103W TO 06N108W TO 04N121W TO 07N140W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM THE ITCZ TO
10N FROM 128W WESTWARD.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N87W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 05N91W...TO 03N95W TO 04N98W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 95W AND
97W.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N111W TO 10N114W TO 06N115W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 08N TO 12N
BETWEEN 107W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE NORTHERN
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 15N126W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS THE
REMNANT OF THE EARLIER COLD FRONT.

SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM YESTERDAY SHOWED TRADEWIND FLOW FROM 10N
TO 20N FROM 130W WESTWARD. THIS TRADEWIND FLOW AND SEA HEIGHTS
FROM 8 TO 10 FEET CONTINUING THROUGH 48 HOURS.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE
TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST
OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW DURING
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN
THU.

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BENIGN FOR
MOST OF THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. THE 48-HOUR FORECAST SHOWS A
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WITH A COLD FRONT...
BURSTING TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 25 KT THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WIND FLOW WEAKENS IN SPEED DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS PICK UP MORE TO 20
KNOTS MORE DOWNSTREAM FROM PAPAGAYO THAN IN THE GULF AREA ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 20 KNOT WINDS
RETURN IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN
THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO 04N-05N THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN
WEAKEN EARLY THURSDAY BELOW 20 KNOTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS.

$$
MT


000
AXNT20 KNHC 040603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 9 TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W SW TO 03N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S32W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ W OF 21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
NEAR 90W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE W ATLC NEAR 35N66W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF...THUS PROVIDING WITH SE WIND
FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. WITH OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT
THE SURFACE...FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE S OF 26N.
HOWEVER...LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORTS ADVECTION FOG OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 29N E OF
87W...THIS COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES...WITH GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC...THROUGH THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO A BROAD BASE OVER PANAMA. RELATIVELY DRY AND
STABLE AIR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN THUS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL
WATERS. TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE OVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT
FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ANCHORED ACROSS THE MID-ATLC U.S.
COAST MOVES E-SE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE BASIN OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS
TO GALE FORCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE
EXPECTED TO PULSE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS TONIGHT. MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FLOW OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH WED MORNING. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS
FORECAST TO PREDOMINATE OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM
30N52W SW TO 26N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT N OF 27N W OF 30W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
THE MID-ATLC COAST AND SETTLES INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB
HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 45N17W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS



000
AXNT20 KNHC 040603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 9 TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W SW TO 03N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S32W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ W OF 21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
NEAR 90W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE W ATLC NEAR 35N66W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF...THUS PROVIDING WITH SE WIND
FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. WITH OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT
THE SURFACE...FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE S OF 26N.
HOWEVER...LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORTS ADVECTION FOG OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 29N E OF
87W...THIS COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES...WITH GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC...THROUGH THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO A BROAD BASE OVER PANAMA. RELATIVELY DRY AND
STABLE AIR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN THUS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL
WATERS. TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE OVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT
FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ANCHORED ACROSS THE MID-ATLC U.S.
COAST MOVES E-SE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE BASIN OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS
TO GALE FORCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE
EXPECTED TO PULSE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS TONIGHT. MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FLOW OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH WED MORNING. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS
FORECAST TO PREDOMINATE OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM
30N52W SW TO 26N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT N OF 27N W OF 30W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
THE MID-ATLC COAST AND SETTLES INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB
HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 45N17W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 040603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 9 TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W SW TO 03N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S32W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ W OF 21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
NEAR 90W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE W ATLC NEAR 35N66W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF...THUS PROVIDING WITH SE WIND
FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. WITH OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT
THE SURFACE...FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE S OF 26N.
HOWEVER...LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORTS ADVECTION FOG OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 29N E OF
87W...THIS COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES...WITH GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC...THROUGH THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO A BROAD BASE OVER PANAMA. RELATIVELY DRY AND
STABLE AIR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN THUS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL
WATERS. TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE OVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT
FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ANCHORED ACROSS THE MID-ATLC U.S.
COAST MOVES E-SE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE BASIN OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS
TO GALE FORCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE
EXPECTED TO PULSE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS TONIGHT. MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FLOW OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH WED MORNING. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS
FORECAST TO PREDOMINATE OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM
30N52W SW TO 26N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT N OF 27N W OF 30W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
THE MID-ATLC COAST AND SETTLES INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB
HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 45N17W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 040603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 9 TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W SW TO 03N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S32W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ W OF 21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
NEAR 90W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE W ATLC NEAR 35N66W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF...THUS PROVIDING WITH SE WIND
FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. WITH OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT
THE SURFACE...FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE S OF 26N.
HOWEVER...LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORTS ADVECTION FOG OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 29N E OF
87W...THIS COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES...WITH GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC...THROUGH THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO A BROAD BASE OVER PANAMA. RELATIVELY DRY AND
STABLE AIR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN THUS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL
WATERS. TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE OVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT
FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ANCHORED ACROSS THE MID-ATLC U.S.
COAST MOVES E-SE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE BASIN OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS
TO GALE FORCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE
EXPECTED TO PULSE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS TONIGHT. MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FLOW OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH WED MORNING. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS
FORECAST TO PREDOMINATE OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM
30N52W SW TO 26N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT N OF 27N W OF 30W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
THE MID-ATLC COAST AND SETTLES INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB
HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 45N17W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 040603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 9 TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W SW TO 03N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S32W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ W OF 21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
NEAR 90W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE W ATLC NEAR 35N66W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF...THUS PROVIDING WITH SE WIND
FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. WITH OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT
THE SURFACE...FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE S OF 26N.
HOWEVER...LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORTS ADVECTION FOG OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 29N E OF
87W...THIS COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES...WITH GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC...THROUGH THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO A BROAD BASE OVER PANAMA. RELATIVELY DRY AND
STABLE AIR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN THUS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL
WATERS. TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE OVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT
FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ANCHORED ACROSS THE MID-ATLC U.S.
COAST MOVES E-SE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE BASIN OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS
TO GALE FORCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE
EXPECTED TO PULSE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS TONIGHT. MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FLOW OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH WED MORNING. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS
FORECAST TO PREDOMINATE OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM
30N52W SW TO 26N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT N OF 27N W OF 30W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
THE MID-ATLC COAST AND SETTLES INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB
HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 45N17W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


000
AXNT20 KNHC 040603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 9 TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W SW TO 03N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S32W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ W OF 21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
NEAR 90W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE W ATLC NEAR 35N66W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF...THUS PROVIDING WITH SE WIND
FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. WITH OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT
THE SURFACE...FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE S OF 26N.
HOWEVER...LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORTS ADVECTION FOG OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 29N E OF
87W...THIS COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES...WITH GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC...THROUGH THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO A BROAD BASE OVER PANAMA. RELATIVELY DRY AND
STABLE AIR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN THUS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL
WATERS. TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE OVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT
FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ANCHORED ACROSS THE MID-ATLC U.S.
COAST MOVES E-SE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE BASIN OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS
TO GALE FORCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE
EXPECTED TO PULSE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS TONIGHT. MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FLOW OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH WED MORNING. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS
FORECAST TO PREDOMINATE OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM
30N52W SW TO 26N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT N OF 27N W OF 30W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
THE MID-ATLC COAST AND SETTLES INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB
HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 45N17W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040346
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES 1007 MB NEAR 04.5N91W TO 03N100W TO
07.5N110W TO 04N120W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS W OF 126W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM E AND 180 NM W SEMICIRCLES OF LOW
PRES NEAR 04.5N91W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
OF THE SW U.S. NEAR 35N113.5W ACROSS N BAJA CALIFORNIA TO
15N125W AND HAS BEEN SHIFTING SLOWLY SE THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT HAS SWEPT THROUGH
MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE SUB TROPICS...AND EXTENDED
ACROSS NW MAINLAND MEXICO THROUGH 26.5N109W TO 20N113W TO
15N120W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS DEEP LAYERED AND HAS GENERATED A
1012 MB CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N118W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MOST
ENERGY LIFTING OUT TO THE NE...AND LEAVE A BROAD FLAT TROUGH IN
ITS WAKE BY FRI NIGHT.

SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWED TWO AREAS OF FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS...ONE FROM 08N TO 17N W OF 133W...WHERE THE
TRADEWINDS ARE KICKING UP STRONG CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE
ALONG THE ITCZ...AND THE OTHER N OF 26N BETWEEN 121W AND
125W...IN NW TO N WINDS OCCURRING W THROUGH SW OF THE SURFACE
LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FRONTAL REMNANTS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND REACH THE MANZANILLO AREA THU EVENING
BEFORE BECOMING ILL DEFINED. THE AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES WILL
SHIFT W OF 140W AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH WED. ELSEWHERE AT
THE SURFACE...1032 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE
SOUTH THEN SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 22N120W. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT THROUGH THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THU...AND INCREASE WINDS 20-30 KT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
LENGTH OF THE GULF THU EVENING THROUGH FRI EVENING.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE
TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST
OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW DURING
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN
THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE FALLEN TO 20 KT OR
LESS ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING QUICKLY. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT WILL BEGIN THU EVENING AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W GULF OF MEXICO...WITH WINDS
QUICKLY INCREASING TO STRONG GALE THU NIGHT...AND TO NEAR STORM
FORCE BY FRI MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 25 KT TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THU AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO 04N-05N THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN
EARLY THU BELOW 20 KT AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040346
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES 1007 MB NEAR 04.5N91W TO 03N100W TO
07.5N110W TO 04N120W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS W OF 126W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM E AND 180 NM W SEMICIRCLES OF LOW
PRES NEAR 04.5N91W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
OF THE SW U.S. NEAR 35N113.5W ACROSS N BAJA CALIFORNIA TO
15N125W AND HAS BEEN SHIFTING SLOWLY SE THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT HAS SWEPT THROUGH
MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE SUB TROPICS...AND EXTENDED
ACROSS NW MAINLAND MEXICO THROUGH 26.5N109W TO 20N113W TO
15N120W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS DEEP LAYERED AND HAS GENERATED A
1012 MB CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N118W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MOST
ENERGY LIFTING OUT TO THE NE...AND LEAVE A BROAD FLAT TROUGH IN
ITS WAKE BY FRI NIGHT.

SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWED TWO AREAS OF FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS...ONE FROM 08N TO 17N W OF 133W...WHERE THE
TRADEWINDS ARE KICKING UP STRONG CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE
ALONG THE ITCZ...AND THE OTHER N OF 26N BETWEEN 121W AND
125W...IN NW TO N WINDS OCCURRING W THROUGH SW OF THE SURFACE
LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FRONTAL REMNANTS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND REACH THE MANZANILLO AREA THU EVENING
BEFORE BECOMING ILL DEFINED. THE AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES WILL
SHIFT W OF 140W AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH WED. ELSEWHERE AT
THE SURFACE...1032 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE
SOUTH THEN SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 22N120W. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT THROUGH THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THU...AND INCREASE WINDS 20-30 KT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
LENGTH OF THE GULF THU EVENING THROUGH FRI EVENING.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE
TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST
OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW DURING
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN
THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE FALLEN TO 20 KT OR
LESS ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING QUICKLY. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT WILL BEGIN THU EVENING AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W GULF OF MEXICO...WITH WINDS
QUICKLY INCREASING TO STRONG GALE THU NIGHT...AND TO NEAR STORM
FORCE BY FRI MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 25 KT TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THU AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO 04N-05N THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN
EARLY THU BELOW 20 KT AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXNT20 KNHC 032338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE MAR 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA AT 0000 UTC WED FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W
WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 9 AND 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC WED. A GALE IS AGAIN
FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT AT 0000 UTC THU AND FORECAST TO
CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC THU. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N16W TO 8N18W TO 2N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 5S25W TO 2S35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
2S44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 2N-6S BETWEEN 20W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

10-15 KT SE RETURN FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER AND WARM ADVECTION. A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY 1014 MB
LOW IS JUST INLAND OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. PATCHY FOG IS OVER
THE NW GULF TO INCLUDE THE TEXAS COAST. IN THE UPPER LEVEL... AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW
GULF BY THU MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA AT 0000 UTC WED. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON AND
OFF FOR THE NEXT48 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND S OF PUERTO RICO.
SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W. MORE SHOWERS
ARE OVER INLAND HONDURAS AND N NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO MOVE W AND SPREAD.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM THE EAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC FROM 31N57W TO 27N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM N OF FRONT. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 35N23W. IN THE TROPICS...AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-4S BETWEEN 43W-58W MOVING W. OF
NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 45W-65W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE ATLANTIC
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N43W TO 28N50W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 032338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE MAR 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA AT 0000 UTC WED FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W
WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 9 AND 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC WED. A GALE IS AGAIN
FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT AT 0000 UTC THU AND FORECAST TO
CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC THU. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N16W TO 8N18W TO 2N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 5S25W TO 2S35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
2S44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 2N-6S BETWEEN 20W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

10-15 KT SE RETURN FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER AND WARM ADVECTION. A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY 1014 MB
LOW IS JUST INLAND OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. PATCHY FOG IS OVER
THE NW GULF TO INCLUDE THE TEXAS COAST. IN THE UPPER LEVEL... AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW
GULF BY THU MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA AT 0000 UTC WED. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON AND
OFF FOR THE NEXT48 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND S OF PUERTO RICO.
SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W. MORE SHOWERS
ARE OVER INLAND HONDURAS AND N NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO MOVE W AND SPREAD.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM THE EAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC FROM 31N57W TO 27N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM N OF FRONT. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 35N23W. IN THE TROPICS...AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-4S BETWEEN 43W-58W MOVING W. OF
NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 45W-65W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE ATLANTIC
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N43W TO 28N50W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 032338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE MAR 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA AT 0000 UTC WED FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W
WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 9 AND 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC WED. A GALE IS AGAIN
FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT AT 0000 UTC THU AND FORECAST TO
CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC THU. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N16W TO 8N18W TO 2N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 5S25W TO 2S35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
2S44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 2N-6S BETWEEN 20W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

10-15 KT SE RETURN FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER AND WARM ADVECTION. A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY 1014 MB
LOW IS JUST INLAND OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. PATCHY FOG IS OVER
THE NW GULF TO INCLUDE THE TEXAS COAST. IN THE UPPER LEVEL... AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW
GULF BY THU MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA AT 0000 UTC WED. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON AND
OFF FOR THE NEXT48 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND S OF PUERTO RICO.
SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W. MORE SHOWERS
ARE OVER INLAND HONDURAS AND N NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO MOVE W AND SPREAD.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM THE EAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC FROM 31N57W TO 27N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM N OF FRONT. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 35N23W. IN THE TROPICS...AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-4S BETWEEN 43W-58W MOVING W. OF
NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 45W-65W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE ATLANTIC
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N43W TO 28N50W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032159
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAR 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N86W TO LOW PRES 1007 MB NEAR 04.5N90.5W TO
06.5N107W TO 04.5N118W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG WITHIN 180 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF LOW NEAR 04.5N90.5W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 210 NM N OF AXIS W OF 129W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOS ANGELES AREA
NEAR 33.5N119W TO 17N125W AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT HAS
SWEPT THROUGH MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND EXTENDING THROUGH
27N110W TO 22N111W TO 14N130W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS DEEP LAYERED
AND HAS GENERATED A 1012 MB CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N118W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWED TWO AREAS OF FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS...ONE FROM 08N TO 17N W OF 133W...WHERE THE
TRADEWINDS ARE KICKING UP STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE
ITCZ...AND THE OTHER N OF 26N BETWEEN 121W AND 125W...IN NW TO N
WINDS OCCURRING W THROUGH SW OF THE SURFACE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES WILL SHIFT W OF 140W AND
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH WED. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...1032 MB
HIGH WELL N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTH THEN SOUTHEASTWARD
TO NEAR 22N120W.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE
TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST-PAC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST OF
THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW DURING LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY WED THEN WEAKEN THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A LATE MORNING ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE GULF TO ABOUT 14.5N...WHERE SEAS
WERE LIKELY 8-9 FT. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GAP WINDS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THIS EVENING WITH SEAS RAPIDLY
SUBSIDING AS WELL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT WILL
BEGIN LATE THU AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO STRONG GALE THU
NIGHT...AND REACHING NEAR STORM FORCE EARLY FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 25 KT TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THU AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO 04N-05N THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN
EARLY THU BELOW 20 KT AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

$$
STRIPLING



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032159
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAR 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N86W TO LOW PRES 1007 MB NEAR 04.5N90.5W TO
06.5N107W TO 04.5N118W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG WITHIN 180 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF LOW NEAR 04.5N90.5W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 210 NM N OF AXIS W OF 129W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOS ANGELES AREA
NEAR 33.5N119W TO 17N125W AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT HAS
SWEPT THROUGH MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND EXTENDING THROUGH
27N110W TO 22N111W TO 14N130W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS DEEP LAYERED
AND HAS GENERATED A 1012 MB CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N118W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWED TWO AREAS OF FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS...ONE FROM 08N TO 17N W OF 133W...WHERE THE
TRADEWINDS ARE KICKING UP STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE
ITCZ...AND THE OTHER N OF 26N BETWEEN 121W AND 125W...IN NW TO N
WINDS OCCURRING W THROUGH SW OF THE SURFACE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES WILL SHIFT W OF 140W AND
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH WED. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...1032 MB
HIGH WELL N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTH THEN SOUTHEASTWARD
TO NEAR 22N120W.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE
TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST-PAC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST OF
THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW DURING LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY WED THEN WEAKEN THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A LATE MORNING ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE GULF TO ABOUT 14.5N...WHERE SEAS
WERE LIKELY 8-9 FT. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GAP WINDS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THIS EVENING WITH SEAS RAPIDLY
SUBSIDING AS WELL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT WILL
BEGIN LATE THU AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO STRONG GALE THU
NIGHT...AND REACHING NEAR STORM FORCE EARLY FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 25 KT TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THU AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO 04N-05N THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN
EARLY THU BELOW 20 KT AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXNT20 KNHC 031750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE MAR 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
06N15W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 18W. THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED SOUTH OF
THE EQUATOR AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
07N BETWEEN 46W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 17N93W N-NE TO OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEAR 35N90W. WHILE MOSTLY MODERATE TO
OCCASIONAL FRESH E-SE WINDS PREVAIL...A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS ANALYZED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM 28N97W TO NEAR
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND INLAND ACROSS NE MEXICO. OTHERWISE...
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA SW TO EAST-CENTRAL
MEXICO AND IS EXPECTED TO HOLD STRONG THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS INTRODUCING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE NORTHERLIES...WITH GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
WATERS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN W-SW TO A BROAD BASE
OVER PANAMA. RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH IS PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS MORE
PLENTIFUL HOWEVER WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WEST
WITHIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES. LOOKING AHEAD...AS HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY ANCHORED ACROSS THE MID-ATLC U.S. COAST MOVES
E-SE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE BASIN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...
NE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RELATIVELY FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. OVERALL
STABILITY ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THESE CONDITIONS DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED LOW CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
OFF THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA EXTENDS A COLD FRONT FROM
32N59W SW TO 29N70W TO 31N77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING N OF 30N WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 30N WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST AND SETTLES INTO THE
SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N21W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 031750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE MAR 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
06N15W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 18W. THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED SOUTH OF
THE EQUATOR AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
07N BETWEEN 46W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 17N93W N-NE TO OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEAR 35N90W. WHILE MOSTLY MODERATE TO
OCCASIONAL FRESH E-SE WINDS PREVAIL...A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS ANALYZED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM 28N97W TO NEAR
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND INLAND ACROSS NE MEXICO. OTHERWISE...
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA SW TO EAST-CENTRAL
MEXICO AND IS EXPECTED TO HOLD STRONG THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS INTRODUCING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE NORTHERLIES...WITH GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
WATERS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN W-SW TO A BROAD BASE
OVER PANAMA. RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH IS PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS MORE
PLENTIFUL HOWEVER WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WEST
WITHIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES. LOOKING AHEAD...AS HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY ANCHORED ACROSS THE MID-ATLC U.S. COAST MOVES
E-SE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE BASIN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...
NE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RELATIVELY FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. OVERALL
STABILITY ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THESE CONDITIONS DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED LOW CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
OFF THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA EXTENDS A COLD FRONT FROM
32N59W SW TO 29N70W TO 31N77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING N OF 30N WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 30N WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST AND SETTLES INTO THE
SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N21W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



000
AXNT20 KNHC 031750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE MAR 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
06N15W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 18W. THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED SOUTH OF
THE EQUATOR AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
07N BETWEEN 46W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 17N93W N-NE TO OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEAR 35N90W. WHILE MOSTLY MODERATE TO
OCCASIONAL FRESH E-SE WINDS PREVAIL...A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS ANALYZED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM 28N97W TO NEAR
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND INLAND ACROSS NE MEXICO. OTHERWISE...
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA SW TO EAST-CENTRAL
MEXICO AND IS EXPECTED TO HOLD STRONG THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS INTRODUCING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE NORTHERLIES...WITH GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
WATERS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN W-SW TO A BROAD BASE
OVER PANAMA. RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS TROUGHING ALOFT WHICH IS PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS MORE
PLENTIFUL HOWEVER WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WEST
WITHIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES. LOOKING AHEAD...AS HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY ANCHORED ACROSS THE MID-ATLC U.S. COAST MOVES
E-SE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE BASIN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...
NE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RELATIVELY FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. OVERALL
STABILITY ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THESE CONDITIONS DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED LOW CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
OFF THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA EXTENDS A COLD FRONT FROM
32N59W SW TO 29N70W TO 31N77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING N OF 30N WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 30N WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST AND SETTLES INTO THE
SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N21W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031536 CCA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAR 3 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N82W TO 06N106W TO 04N114W TO 06N131W TO
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60
NM OF 4.5N89.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 10N
BETWEEN 106W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 37N116W TO 20N130W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE TROPICS FROM 28N114W TO
19N119W TO 16N133W...AND A 1011 MB CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR
30N119W ASSOCIATED WITH COLD CORE OF AN UPPER LOW. SCATTEROMETER
DATA SHOWS TWO AREAS OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS...ONE FROM 10N TO
22N W OF 128W...AND THE OTHER N OF 27N BETWEEN 122W AND 128W.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES WILL SHIFT W OF
140W AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH WED. 1034 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE
AREA EXTENDS RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO 20N W OF 127W.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE
TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST-PAC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST OF
THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW DURING LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY WED THEN WEAKEN THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HOLLAND AMERICA CRUISE SHIP VEENDAM...CALL
SIGN PHEO...REPORTED GALE FORCE WINDS BETWEEN 0900 AND 1200 UTC
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WAVE HEIGHTS AND CLEAR HIGH BIAS OF PAST
OBSERVATIONS...ALONG WITH SALINA CRUZ AUTOMATED OBS...DOES NOT
SUPPORT WINDS HIGHER THAN 30 KT TODAY. GFS MODEL SHOWS GAP WINDS
QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THIS EVENING WITH SEAS
RAPIDLY SUBSIDING AS WELL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT
WILL BEGIN LATE THU AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W
GULF OF MEXICO...WITH WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO STRONG GALE
THU NIGHT...AND REACHING NEAR STORM FORCE EARLY FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 25 KT TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THU AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 04N THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN
EARLY THU BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031536 CCA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAR 3 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N82W TO 06N106W TO 04N114W TO 06N131W TO
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60
NM OF 4.5N89.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 10N
BETWEEN 106W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 37N116W TO 20N130W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE TROPICS FROM 28N114W TO
19N119W TO 16N133W...AND A 1011 MB CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR
30N119W ASSOCIATED WITH COLD CORE OF AN UPPER LOW. SCATTEROMETER
DATA SHOWS TWO AREAS OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS...ONE FROM 10N TO
22N W OF 128W...AND THE OTHER N OF 27N BETWEEN 122W AND 128W.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES WILL SHIFT W OF
140W AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH WED. 1034 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE
AREA EXTENDS RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO 20N W OF 127W.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE
TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST-PAC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST OF
THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW DURING LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY WED THEN WEAKEN THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HOLLAND AMERICA CRUISE SHIP VEENDAM...CALL
SIGN PHEO...REPORTED GALE FORCE WINDS BETWEEN 0900 AND 1200 UTC
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WAVE HEIGHTS AND CLEAR HIGH BIAS OF PAST
OBSERVATIONS...ALONG WITH SALINA CRUZ AUTOMATED OBS...DOES NOT
SUPPORT WINDS HIGHER THAN 30 KT TODAY. GFS MODEL SHOWS GAP WINDS
QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THIS EVENING WITH SEAS
RAPIDLY SUBSIDING AS WELL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT
WILL BEGIN LATE THU AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W
GULF OF MEXICO...WITH WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO STRONG GALE
THU NIGHT...AND REACHING NEAR STORM FORCE EARLY FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 25 KT TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THU AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 04N THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN
EARLY THU BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031536 CCA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAR 3 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N82W TO 06N106W TO 04N114W TO 06N131W TO
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60
NM OF 4.5N89.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 10N
BETWEEN 106W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 37N116W TO 20N130W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE TROPICS FROM 28N114W TO
19N119W TO 16N133W...AND A 1011 MB CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR
30N119W ASSOCIATED WITH COLD CORE OF AN UPPER LOW. SCATTEROMETER
DATA SHOWS TWO AREAS OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS...ONE FROM 10N TO
22N W OF 128W...AND THE OTHER N OF 27N BETWEEN 122W AND 128W.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES WILL SHIFT W OF
140W AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH WED. 1034 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE
AREA EXTENDS RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO 20N W OF 127W.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE
TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST-PAC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST OF
THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW DURING LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY WED THEN WEAKEN THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HOLLAND AMERICA CRUISE SHIP VEENDAM...CALL
SIGN PHEO...REPORTED GALE FORCE WINDS BETWEEN 0900 AND 1200 UTC
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WAVE HEIGHTS AND CLEAR HIGH BIAS OF PAST
OBSERVATIONS...ALONG WITH SALINA CRUZ AUTOMATED OBS...DOES NOT
SUPPORT WINDS HIGHER THAN 30 KT TODAY. GFS MODEL SHOWS GAP WINDS
QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THIS EVENING WITH SEAS
RAPIDLY SUBSIDING AS WELL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT
WILL BEGIN LATE THU AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W
GULF OF MEXICO...WITH WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO STRONG GALE
THU NIGHT...AND REACHING NEAR STORM FORCE EARLY FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 25 KT TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THU AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 04N THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN
EARLY THU BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031536 CCA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAR 3 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N82W TO 06N106W TO 04N114W TO 06N131W TO
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60
NM OF 4.5N89.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 10N
BETWEEN 106W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 37N116W TO 20N130W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE TROPICS FROM 28N114W TO
19N119W TO 16N133W...AND A 1011 MB CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR
30N119W ASSOCIATED WITH COLD CORE OF AN UPPER LOW. SCATTEROMETER
DATA SHOWS TWO AREAS OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS...ONE FROM 10N TO
22N W OF 128W...AND THE OTHER N OF 27N BETWEEN 122W AND 128W.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES WILL SHIFT W OF
140W AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH WED. 1034 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE
AREA EXTENDS RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO 20N W OF 127W.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE
TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST-PAC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST OF
THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW DURING LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY WED THEN WEAKEN THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HOLLAND AMERICA CRUISE SHIP VEENDAM...CALL
SIGN PHEO...REPORTED GALE FORCE WINDS BETWEEN 0900 AND 1200 UTC
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WAVE HEIGHTS AND CLEAR HIGH BIAS OF PAST
OBSERVATIONS...ALONG WITH SALINA CRUZ AUTOMATED OBS...DOES NOT
SUPPORT WINDS HIGHER THAN 30 KT TODAY. GFS MODEL SHOWS GAP WINDS
QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THIS EVENING WITH SEAS
RAPIDLY SUBSIDING AS WELL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT
WILL BEGIN LATE THU AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W
GULF OF MEXICO...WITH WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO STRONG GALE
THU NIGHT...AND REACHING NEAR STORM FORCE EARLY FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 25 KT TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THU AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 04N THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN
EARLY THU BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031536 CCA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAR 3 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N82W TO 06N106W TO 04N114W TO 06N131W TO
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60
NM OF 4.5N89.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 10N
BETWEEN 106W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 37N116W TO 20N130W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE TROPICS FROM 28N114W TO
19N119W TO 16N133W...AND A 1011 MB CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR
30N119W ASSOCIATED WITH COLD CORE OF AN UPPER LOW. SCATTEROMETER
DATA SHOWS TWO AREAS OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS...ONE FROM 10N TO
22N W OF 128W...AND THE OTHER N OF 27N BETWEEN 122W AND 128W.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES WILL SHIFT W OF
140W AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH WED. 1034 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE
AREA EXTENDS RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO 20N W OF 127W.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE
TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST-PAC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST OF
THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW DURING LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY WED THEN WEAKEN THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HOLLAND AMERICA CRUISE SHIP VEENDAM...CALL
SIGN PHEO...REPORTED GALE FORCE WINDS BETWEEN 0900 AND 1200 UTC
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WAVE HEIGHTS AND CLEAR HIGH BIAS OF PAST
OBSERVATIONS...ALONG WITH SALINA CRUZ AUTOMATED OBS...DOES NOT
SUPPORT WINDS HIGHER THAN 30 KT TODAY. GFS MODEL SHOWS GAP WINDS
QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THIS EVENING WITH SEAS
RAPIDLY SUBSIDING AS WELL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT
WILL BEGIN LATE THU AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W
GULF OF MEXICO...WITH WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO STRONG GALE
THU NIGHT...AND REACHING NEAR STORM FORCE EARLY FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 25 KT TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THU AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 04N THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN
EARLY THU BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031536 CCA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAR 3 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N82W TO 06N106W TO 04N114W TO 06N131W TO
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60
NM OF 4.5N89.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 10N
BETWEEN 106W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 37N116W TO 20N130W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE TROPICS FROM 28N114W TO
19N119W TO 16N133W...AND A 1011 MB CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR
30N119W ASSOCIATED WITH COLD CORE OF AN UPPER LOW. SCATTEROMETER
DATA SHOWS TWO AREAS OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS...ONE FROM 10N TO
22N W OF 128W...AND THE OTHER N OF 27N BETWEEN 122W AND 128W.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES WILL SHIFT W OF
140W AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH WED. 1034 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE
AREA EXTENDS RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO 20N W OF 127W.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE
TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST-PAC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST OF
THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW DURING LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY WED THEN WEAKEN THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HOLLAND AMERICA CRUISE SHIP VEENDAM...CALL
SIGN PHEO...REPORTED GALE FORCE WINDS BETWEEN 0900 AND 1200 UTC
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WAVE HEIGHTS AND CLEAR HIGH BIAS OF PAST
OBSERVATIONS...ALONG WITH SALINA CRUZ AUTOMATED OBS...DOES NOT
SUPPORT WINDS HIGHER THAN 30 KT TODAY. GFS MODEL SHOWS GAP WINDS
QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THIS EVENING WITH SEAS
RAPIDLY SUBSIDING AS WELL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT
WILL BEGIN LATE THU AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W
GULF OF MEXICO...WITH WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO STRONG GALE
THU NIGHT...AND REACHING NEAR STORM FORCE EARLY FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 25 KT TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THU AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 04N THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN
EARLY THU BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031530
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAR 3 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N82W TO 06N106W TO 04N114W TO 06N131W TO
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60
NM OF 4.5N89.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 10N
BETWEEN 106W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 37N116W TO 20N130W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE TROPICS FROM 28N114W TO
19N119W TO 16N133W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS TWO AREAS OF FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS...ONE FROM 10N TO 22N W OF 128W...AND THE OTHER
N OF 27N BETWEEN 122W AND 128W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AREA OF
ENHANCED TRADES WILL SHIFT W OF 140W AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH
WED. 1034 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AREA EXTENDS RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO
20N W OF 127W.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE
TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST-PAC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST OF
THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW DURING LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY WED THEN WEAKEN THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HOLLAND AMERICA CRUISE SHIP VEENDAM...CALL
SIGN PHEO...REPORTED GALE FORCE WINDS BETWEEN 0900 AND 1200 UTC
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WAVE HEIGHTS AND CLEAR HIGH BIAS OF PAST
OBSERVATIONS...ALONG WITH SALINA CRUZ AUTOMATED OBS...DOES NOT
SUPPORT WINDS HIGHER THAN 30 KT TODAY. GFS MODEL SHOWS GAP WINDS
QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THIS EVENING WITH SEAS
RAPIDLY SUBSIDING AS WELL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT
WILL BEGIN LATE THU AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W
GULF OF MEXICO...WITH WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO STRONG GALE
THU NIGHT...AND REACHING NEAR STORM FORCE EARLY FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 25 KT TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THU AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 04N THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN
EARLY THU BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

$$
MUNDELL


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031530
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAR 3 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N82W TO 06N106W TO 04N114W TO 06N131W TO
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60
NM OF 4.5N89.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 10N
BETWEEN 106W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 37N116W TO 20N130W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE TROPICS FROM 28N114W TO
19N119W TO 16N133W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS TWO AREAS OF FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS...ONE FROM 10N TO 22N W OF 128W...AND THE OTHER
N OF 27N BETWEEN 122W AND 128W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AREA OF
ENHANCED TRADES WILL SHIFT W OF 140W AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH
WED. 1034 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AREA EXTENDS RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO
20N W OF 127W.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE
TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST-PAC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST OF
THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW DURING LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY WED THEN WEAKEN THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HOLLAND AMERICA CRUISE SHIP VEENDAM...CALL
SIGN PHEO...REPORTED GALE FORCE WINDS BETWEEN 0900 AND 1200 UTC
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WAVE HEIGHTS AND CLEAR HIGH BIAS OF PAST
OBSERVATIONS...ALONG WITH SALINA CRUZ AUTOMATED OBS...DOES NOT
SUPPORT WINDS HIGHER THAN 30 KT TODAY. GFS MODEL SHOWS GAP WINDS
QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THIS EVENING WITH SEAS
RAPIDLY SUBSIDING AS WELL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT
WILL BEGIN LATE THU AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W
GULF OF MEXICO...WITH WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO STRONG GALE
THU NIGHT...AND REACHING NEAR STORM FORCE EARLY FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 25 KT TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THU AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 04N THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN
EARLY THU BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

$$
MUNDELL



000
AXNT20 KNHC 031123
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE MAR 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING HAS RESUMED FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
10.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 10
AND 14 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER INCREASE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE DURING THE NIGHT
HOURS AND PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N10W SW TO 01S20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 03S26W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
04S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 03S TO
02N BETWEEN 06W AND 12W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
03S TO 01N BETWEEN 20W AND 25W...AND FROM 07S TO 02S BETWEEN 26W
AND 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW GULF...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE E-SE WIND
FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KT THAT ADVECTS LOW -LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SW
N ATLC WATERS. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA SW TO 27N96W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 23N97W. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR SUBSIDING ACROSS THE BASIN...RESULTING IN
THE SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...ADVECTION
FOG IS BEING REPORTED N OF 25N W OF 90W AND OVER THE NE GULF N
OF 28N E OF 87W...COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. SURFACE RIDGING THEN WILL DOMINATE BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTER THE NW GULF THURSDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN...THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PASSING SHOWERS OVER
PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...LESSER ANTILLES AND HONDURAS-
NICARAGUA COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE OVER
THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM
25 TO 30 KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS.
MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...THUS SUPPORTING SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
PREVAILS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR...WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ON THE SW N ATLC WHERE
LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER FRONT SUPPORT
ADVECTION FOG WITHIN 60 NM OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST N OF
MELBOURNE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S OF 31N AND EXTEND FROM
30N61W TO 29N74W THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 031122
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE MAR 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING HAS RESUMED FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
10.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 10
AND 14 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER INCREASE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE DURING THE NIGHT
HOURS AND PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N10W SW TO 01S20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 03S26W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
04S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 03S TO
02N BETWEEN 06W AND 12W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
03S TO 01N BETWEEN 20W AND 25W...AND FROM 07S TO 02S BETWEEN 26W
AND 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW GULF...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE E-SE WIND
FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KT THAT ADVECTS LOW -LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SW
N ATLC WATERS. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA SW TO 27N96W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 23N97W. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR SUBSIDING ACROSS THE BASIN...RESULTING IN
THE SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...ADVECTION
FOG IS BEING REPORTED N OF 25N W OF 90W AND OVER THE NE GULF N
OF 28N E OF 87W...COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. SURFACE RIDGING THEN WILL DOMINATE BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTER THE NW GULF THURSDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN...THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PASSING SHOWERS OVER
PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...LESSER ANTILLES AND HONDURAS-
NICARAGUA COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE OVER
THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM
25 TO 30 KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS.
MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...THUS SUPPORTING SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
PREVAILS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR...WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ON THE SW N ATLC WHERE
LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER FRONT SUPPORT
ADVECTION FOG WITHIN 60 NM OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST N OF
MELBOURNE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S OF 31N AND EXTEND FROM
30N61W TO 29N74W THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031004
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAR 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

.NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF 5N77W.

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 08N84W 05N91W 05N98W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 05N98W TO 07N120W BEYOND 07N140W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N
TO 05N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W...FROM 08N TO 09N BETWEEN 104W AND
108W...AND FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 126W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N120W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N124W TO 13N127W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 116W AND 140W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N111W TO
21N120W TO 17N133W. FROM 08N TO 23N W OF 125W NE TO E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. EXPECT NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 12 FEET FROM 08N TO 23N FROM
125W WESTWARD. THE WIND SPEEDS EVENTUALLY SLOW DOWN TO LESS THAN
20 KNOTS AFTER 24 HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 8 TO
11 FOOT RANGE WITH A SWELL FROM THE NW TO NORTH. AN AREA OF
TRADE WIND FLOW...20 TO 25 KNOTS...WILL CONTINUE FROM 10N TO 20N
FROM 116W WESTWARD. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 10
FEET. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 39N142W...THROUGH 32N138W TO 26N132W TO
22N124W.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 120W...WITH ALL
THE TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE PEAK WINDS DUE
TO NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS THROUGH EARLY WED.

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THIS AREA STARTS WITH A SMALL AREA OF
30 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AFFECTED AREA. THE 30
KNOT WINDS ARE SURROUNDED BY A COMPARATIVELY LARGER AREA OF 20
TO 25 KNOT WINDS. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 FEET.
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOW DOWN WITH TIME...IN 6-HOUR INCREMENTS.
THE AREA OF 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WILL SHRINK IN SIZE IN 6-
HOUR INCREMENTS. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
SEA HEIGHTS LESS THAN 8 FEET BY 24 HOURS. WE STILL EXPECT A 40
KNOT GALE WIND EVENT BY FRIDAY AROUND 06/1200 UTC OR SO.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 20-25 KT TUE NIGHT. FRESH NE
WINDS ALSO LIKELY IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF FONSECA EACH
NIGHT DURING THE NIGHT TIME MAX ACROSS PAPAGAYO.

THE GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 05N FOR THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD 8-9 FT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

$$
MT


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031004
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAR 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

.NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF 5N77W.

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 08N84W 05N91W 05N98W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 05N98W TO 07N120W BEYOND 07N140W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N
TO 05N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W...FROM 08N TO 09N BETWEEN 104W AND
108W...AND FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 126W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N120W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N124W TO 13N127W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 116W AND 140W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N111W TO
21N120W TO 17N133W. FROM 08N TO 23N W OF 125W NE TO E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. EXPECT NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 12 FEET FROM 08N TO 23N FROM
125W WESTWARD. THE WIND SPEEDS EVENTUALLY SLOW DOWN TO LESS THAN
20 KNOTS AFTER 24 HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 8 TO
11 FOOT RANGE WITH A SWELL FROM THE NW TO NORTH. AN AREA OF
TRADE WIND FLOW...20 TO 25 KNOTS...WILL CONTINUE FROM 10N TO 20N
FROM 116W WESTWARD. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 10
FEET. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 39N142W...THROUGH 32N138W TO 26N132W TO
22N124W.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 120W...WITH ALL
THE TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE PEAK WINDS DUE
TO NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS THROUGH EARLY WED.

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THIS AREA STARTS WITH A SMALL AREA OF
30 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AFFECTED AREA. THE 30
KNOT WINDS ARE SURROUNDED BY A COMPARATIVELY LARGER AREA OF 20
TO 25 KNOT WINDS. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 FEET.
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOW DOWN WITH TIME...IN 6-HOUR INCREMENTS.
THE AREA OF 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WILL SHRINK IN SIZE IN 6-
HOUR INCREMENTS. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
SEA HEIGHTS LESS THAN 8 FEET BY 24 HOURS. WE STILL EXPECT A 40
KNOT GALE WIND EVENT BY FRIDAY AROUND 06/1200 UTC OR SO.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 20-25 KT TUE NIGHT. FRESH NE
WINDS ALSO LIKELY IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF FONSECA EACH
NIGHT DURING THE NIGHT TIME MAX ACROSS PAPAGAYO.

THE GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 05N FOR THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD 8-9 FT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

$$
MT



000
AXNT20 KNHC 030605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE MAR 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 10 AND 14 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE
TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER INCREASE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE DURING
THE NIGHT HOURS PREVAILING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N13W SW TO 02N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 02S22W TO 02S30W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL
NEAR 03S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3S TO 01N
BETWEEN 16W AND 24W...AND FROM 06S TO 02S BETWEEN 26W AND 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WESTERN GULF...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE E-SE WIND
FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KT THAT ADVECTS LOW -LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SW
N ATLC WATERS. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA SW TO 27N96W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 23N97W. OVER THE SW
GULF...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N96W TO 18N93W. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DRY AIR SUBSIDING ACROSS THE BASIN THAT IS
HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ADVECTION FOG
IS BEING REPORTED N OF 23N W OF 90W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF
27N E OF 87W...COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE TUESDAY. SURFACE RIDGING THEN WILL DOMINATE BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ENTER THE NW GULF THURSDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN...THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PASSING SHOWERS OVER
PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...LESSER ANTILLES AND HONDURAS COASTAL
WATERS. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE OVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT
FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS.
MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...THUS SUPPORTING SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
PREVAILS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR...WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ON THE SW N ATLC WHERE
LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER FRONT SUPPORT
ADVECTION FOG WITHIN 60 NM OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST N OF
MELBOURNE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S OF 31N AND EXTEND FROM
31N57W TO 29N70W WITH SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 030605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE MAR 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 10 AND 14 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE
TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER INCREASE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE DURING
THE NIGHT HOURS PREVAILING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N13W SW TO 02N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 02S22W TO 02S30W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL
NEAR 03S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3S TO 01N
BETWEEN 16W AND 24W...AND FROM 06S TO 02S BETWEEN 26W AND 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WESTERN GULF...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE E-SE WIND
FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KT THAT ADVECTS LOW -LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SW
N ATLC WATERS. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA SW TO 27N96W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 23N97W. OVER THE SW
GULF...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N96W TO 18N93W. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DRY AIR SUBSIDING ACROSS THE BASIN THAT IS
HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ADVECTION FOG
IS BEING REPORTED N OF 23N W OF 90W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF
27N E OF 87W...COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE TUESDAY. SURFACE RIDGING THEN WILL DOMINATE BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ENTER THE NW GULF THURSDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN...THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PASSING SHOWERS OVER
PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...LESSER ANTILLES AND HONDURAS COASTAL
WATERS. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE OVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT
FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS.
MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...THUS SUPPORTING SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
PREVAILS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR...WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ON THE SW N ATLC WHERE
LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER FRONT SUPPORT
ADVECTION FOG WITHIN 60 NM OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST N OF
MELBOURNE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S OF 31N AND EXTEND FROM
31N57W TO 29N70W WITH SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXNT20 KNHC 030605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE MAR 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 10 AND 14 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE
TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER INCREASE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE DURING
THE NIGHT HOURS PREVAILING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N13W SW TO 02N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 02S22W TO 02S30W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL
NEAR 03S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3S TO 01N
BETWEEN 16W AND 24W...AND FROM 06S TO 02S BETWEEN 26W AND 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WESTERN GULF...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE E-SE WIND
FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KT THAT ADVECTS LOW -LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SW
N ATLC WATERS. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA SW TO 27N96W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 23N97W. OVER THE SW
GULF...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N96W TO 18N93W. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DRY AIR SUBSIDING ACROSS THE BASIN THAT IS
HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ADVECTION FOG
IS BEING REPORTED N OF 23N W OF 90W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF
27N E OF 87W...COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE TUESDAY. SURFACE RIDGING THEN WILL DOMINATE BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ENTER THE NW GULF THURSDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN...THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PASSING SHOWERS OVER
PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...LESSER ANTILLES AND HONDURAS COASTAL
WATERS. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE OVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT
FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS.
MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...THUS SUPPORTING SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
PREVAILS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR...WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ON THE SW N ATLC WHERE
LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER FRONT SUPPORT
ADVECTION FOG WITHIN 60 NM OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST N OF
MELBOURNE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S OF 31N AND EXTEND FROM
31N57W TO 29N70W WITH SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


000
AXNT20 KNHC 030605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE MAR 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 10 AND 14 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE
TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER INCREASE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE DURING
THE NIGHT HOURS PREVAILING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N13W SW TO 02N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 02S22W TO 02S30W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL
NEAR 03S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3S TO 01N
BETWEEN 16W AND 24W...AND FROM 06S TO 02S BETWEEN 26W AND 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WESTERN GULF...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE E-SE WIND
FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KT THAT ADVECTS LOW -LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SW
N ATLC WATERS. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA SW TO 27N96W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 23N97W. OVER THE SW
GULF...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N96W TO 18N93W. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DRY AIR SUBSIDING ACROSS THE BASIN THAT IS
HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ADVECTION FOG
IS BEING REPORTED N OF 23N W OF 90W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF
27N E OF 87W...COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE TUESDAY. SURFACE RIDGING THEN WILL DOMINATE BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ENTER THE NW GULF THURSDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN...THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PASSING SHOWERS OVER
PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...LESSER ANTILLES AND HONDURAS COASTAL
WATERS. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE OVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT
FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
KT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS.
MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...THUS SUPPORTING SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
PREVAILS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR...WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ON THE SW N ATLC WHERE
LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER FRONT SUPPORT
ADVECTION FOG WITHIN 60 NM OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST N OF
MELBOURNE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S OF 31N AND EXTEND FROM
31N57W TO 29N70W WITH SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030342
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAR 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N86.5W TO 08N121W TO BEYOND 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
AXIS BETWEEN 86.5W AND 90W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 133W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH FROM 15N118W TO 18N117W TO
24N114W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYERED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
WEAKENING UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 35N122W TO 16N126W...WITH
REINFORCING ENERGY CONTINUING TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE W
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...MAINTAINING A MEAN POSITION OF THE BROADER
PERSISTENT TROUGH BETWEEN 117W AND 140W. THE UPPER TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT MOVING GRADUALLY SE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
30N112W TO 24N114W TO 20N120W. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH MODERATE S TO SW WINDS
OCCURRING N OF 25N AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SW TO W WINDS 15 TO
20 KT PREVAILING ACROSS PORTIONS N OF 30N. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SHIFTING GRADUALLY SE AND MOVE THROUGH THE FULL
LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY WED BEFORE STALLING JUST SE
OF MAZATLAN. WINDS AND SEAS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...STRONG SW FLOW THROUGH
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OCCURRING SE OF THE TROUGH IS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE AND THE
COLD FRONT AND CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH....WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER CLOUDS AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SPREADING NE ACROSS THE S HALF OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA AND ACROSS NW MEXICO.

A 1034 MB HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NE PACIFIC NEAR
40N142W SOUTHWARD THEN SE ACROSS THE AREA TO NEAR 25N118W.
AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
NE TRADEWINDS FROM 16N TO 22N W OF 133W...INDUCED BY THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE ITCZ TO THE SOUTH. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS REGION OF ENHANCED TRADES WILL
SHIFT W-SW BEYOND 140W THROUGH TUE.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 120W...WITH ALL
THE TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE
CARIBBEAN. MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE PEAK WINDS DUE TO
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS THROUGH EARLY WED.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CURRENTLY
OBSERVED THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF WILL PULSE TO 30 KT
AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SEAS TO 10-11 FT BY EARLY TUE
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KT BY EARLY
WED. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT HERE IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN LATE THU...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W GULF
OF MEXICO...AND WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE THU
NIGHT AND REACH NEAR STORM FORCE EARLY FRI.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 25-30 KT TONIGHT AND 20-25 KT TUE
NIGHT. FRESH NE WINDS ALSO LIKELY IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF
FONSECA EACH NIGHT DURING THE NIGHT TIME MAX ACROSS PAPAGAYO.

THE GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 05N FOR THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD 8-9 FT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030342
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAR 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N86.5W TO 08N121W TO BEYOND 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
AXIS BETWEEN 86.5W AND 90W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 133W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH FROM 15N118W TO 18N117W TO
24N114W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYERED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
WEAKENING UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 35N122W TO 16N126W...WITH
REINFORCING ENERGY CONTINUING TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE W
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...MAINTAINING A MEAN POSITION OF THE BROADER
PERSISTENT TROUGH BETWEEN 117W AND 140W. THE UPPER TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT MOVING GRADUALLY SE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
30N112W TO 24N114W TO 20N120W. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH MODERATE S TO SW WINDS
OCCURRING N OF 25N AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SW TO W WINDS 15 TO
20 KT PREVAILING ACROSS PORTIONS N OF 30N. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SHIFTING GRADUALLY SE AND MOVE THROUGH THE FULL
LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY WED BEFORE STALLING JUST SE
OF MAZATLAN. WINDS AND SEAS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...STRONG SW FLOW THROUGH
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OCCURRING SE OF THE TROUGH IS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE AND THE
COLD FRONT AND CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH....WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER CLOUDS AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SPREADING NE ACROSS THE S HALF OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA AND ACROSS NW MEXICO.

A 1034 MB HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NE PACIFIC NEAR
40N142W SOUTHWARD THEN SE ACROSS THE AREA TO NEAR 25N118W.
AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
NE TRADEWINDS FROM 16N TO 22N W OF 133W...INDUCED BY THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE ITCZ TO THE SOUTH. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS REGION OF ENHANCED TRADES WILL
SHIFT W-SW BEYOND 140W THROUGH TUE.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 120W...WITH ALL
THE TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE
CARIBBEAN. MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE PEAK WINDS DUE TO
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS THROUGH EARLY WED.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CURRENTLY
OBSERVED THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF WILL PULSE TO 30 KT
AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SEAS TO 10-11 FT BY EARLY TUE
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KT BY EARLY
WED. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT HERE IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN LATE THU...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W GULF
OF MEXICO...AND WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE THU
NIGHT AND REACH NEAR STORM FORCE EARLY FRI.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 25-30 KT TONIGHT AND 20-25 KT TUE
NIGHT. FRESH NE WINDS ALSO LIKELY IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF
FONSECA EACH NIGHT DURING THE NIGHT TIME MAX ACROSS PAPAGAYO.

THE GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 05N FOR THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD 8-9 FT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030342
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAR 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N86.5W TO 08N121W TO BEYOND 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
AXIS BETWEEN 86.5W AND 90W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 133W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH FROM 15N118W TO 18N117W TO
24N114W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYERED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
WEAKENING UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 35N122W TO 16N126W...WITH
REINFORCING ENERGY CONTINUING TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE W
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...MAINTAINING A MEAN POSITION OF THE BROADER
PERSISTENT TROUGH BETWEEN 117W AND 140W. THE UPPER TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT MOVING GRADUALLY SE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
30N112W TO 24N114W TO 20N120W. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH MODERATE S TO SW WINDS
OCCURRING N OF 25N AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SW TO W WINDS 15 TO
20 KT PREVAILING ACROSS PORTIONS N OF 30N. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SHIFTING GRADUALLY SE AND MOVE THROUGH THE FULL
LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY WED BEFORE STALLING JUST SE
OF MAZATLAN. WINDS AND SEAS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...STRONG SW FLOW THROUGH
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OCCURRING SE OF THE TROUGH IS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE AND THE
COLD FRONT AND CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH....WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER CLOUDS AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SPREADING NE ACROSS THE S HALF OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA AND ACROSS NW MEXICO.

A 1034 MB HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NE PACIFIC NEAR
40N142W SOUTHWARD THEN SE ACROSS THE AREA TO NEAR 25N118W.
AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
NE TRADEWINDS FROM 16N TO 22N W OF 133W...INDUCED BY THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE ITCZ TO THE SOUTH. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS REGION OF ENHANCED TRADES WILL
SHIFT W-SW BEYOND 140W THROUGH TUE.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 120W...WITH ALL
THE TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE
CARIBBEAN. MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE PEAK WINDS DUE TO
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS THROUGH EARLY WED.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CURRENTLY
OBSERVED THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF WILL PULSE TO 30 KT
AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SEAS TO 10-11 FT BY EARLY TUE
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KT BY EARLY
WED. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT HERE IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN LATE THU...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W GULF
OF MEXICO...AND WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE THU
NIGHT AND REACH NEAR STORM FORCE EARLY FRI.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 25-30 KT TONIGHT AND 20-25 KT TUE
NIGHT. FRESH NE WINDS ALSO LIKELY IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF
FONSECA EACH NIGHT DURING THE NIGHT TIME MAX ACROSS PAPAGAYO.

THE GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 05N FOR THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD 8-9 FT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030342
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAR 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N86.5W TO 08N121W TO BEYOND 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
AXIS BETWEEN 86.5W AND 90W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 133W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH FROM 15N118W TO 18N117W TO
24N114W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYERED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
WEAKENING UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 35N122W TO 16N126W...WITH
REINFORCING ENERGY CONTINUING TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE W
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...MAINTAINING A MEAN POSITION OF THE BROADER
PERSISTENT TROUGH BETWEEN 117W AND 140W. THE UPPER TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT MOVING GRADUALLY SE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
30N112W TO 24N114W TO 20N120W. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH MODERATE S TO SW WINDS
OCCURRING N OF 25N AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SW TO W WINDS 15 TO
20 KT PREVAILING ACROSS PORTIONS N OF 30N. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SHIFTING GRADUALLY SE AND MOVE THROUGH THE FULL
LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY WED BEFORE STALLING JUST SE
OF MAZATLAN. WINDS AND SEAS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...STRONG SW FLOW THROUGH
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OCCURRING SE OF THE TROUGH IS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE AND THE
COLD FRONT AND CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH....WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER CLOUDS AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SPREADING NE ACROSS THE S HALF OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA AND ACROSS NW MEXICO.

A 1034 MB HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NE PACIFIC NEAR
40N142W SOUTHWARD THEN SE ACROSS THE AREA TO NEAR 25N118W.
AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
NE TRADEWINDS FROM 16N TO 22N W OF 133W...INDUCED BY THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE ITCZ TO THE SOUTH. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS REGION OF ENHANCED TRADES WILL
SHIFT W-SW BEYOND 140W THROUGH TUE.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 120W...WITH ALL
THE TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE
CARIBBEAN. MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE PEAK WINDS DUE TO
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS THROUGH EARLY WED.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CURRENTLY
OBSERVED THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF WILL PULSE TO 30 KT
AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SEAS TO 10-11 FT BY EARLY TUE
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KT BY EARLY
WED. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT HERE IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN LATE THU...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W GULF
OF MEXICO...AND WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE THU
NIGHT AND REACH NEAR STORM FORCE EARLY FRI.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 25-30 KT TONIGHT AND 20-25 KT TUE
NIGHT. FRESH NE WINDS ALSO LIKELY IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF
FONSECA EACH NIGHT DURING THE NIGHT TIME MAX ACROSS PAPAGAYO.

THE GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 05N FOR THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD 8-9 FT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

$$
STRIPLING


000
AXNT20 KNHC 030000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON MAR 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 10 AND 13 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
UNTIL WED EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 8N13W TO 0N20W TO 2S27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S39W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-3S BETWEEN 20W-22W...AND FROM 3S-
5S BETWEEN 27W-31W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
2S-4S BETWEEN 35W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE NW GULF FROM THE LOUISIANA
COAST NEAR 30N93W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N98W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 23N95 TO 19N94W. DENSE
FOG IS NOTED ALONG AND NW OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITH
EITHER OF THESE FEATURES. EASTERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. IN THE UPPER LEVEL... AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONT
AND TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. SE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH THE BASIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
IN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE NW GULF BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN UNTIL WED EVENING. SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND S OF PUERTO RICO.
SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W. MORE SHOWERS
ARE OVER INLAND HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO REMAIN OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM THE EAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N74W
TO 29N78W. A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
34N24W. IN THE TROPICS...AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 54W-60W MOVING W. OF
NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 27N20W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
A LARGE PART OF THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO PUSH S OF 31N AND
EXTEND FROM 31N57W TO 29N70W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


000
AXNT20 KNHC 030000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON MAR 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 10 AND 13 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
UNTIL WED EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 8N13W TO 0N20W TO 2S27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S39W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-3S BETWEEN 20W-22W...AND FROM 3S-
5S BETWEEN 27W-31W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
2S-4S BETWEEN 35W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE NW GULF FROM THE LOUISIANA
COAST NEAR 30N93W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N98W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 23N95 TO 19N94W. DENSE
FOG IS NOTED ALONG AND NW OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITH
EITHER OF THESE FEATURES. EASTERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. IN THE UPPER LEVEL... AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONT
AND TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. SE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH THE BASIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
IN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE NW GULF BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN UNTIL WED EVENING. SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND S OF PUERTO RICO.
SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W. MORE SHOWERS
ARE OVER INLAND HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO REMAIN OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM THE EAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N74W
TO 29N78W. A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
34N24W. IN THE TROPICS...AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 54W-60W MOVING W. OF
NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 27N20W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
A LARGE PART OF THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO PUSH S OF 31N AND
EXTEND FROM 31N57W TO 29N70W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 030000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON MAR 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 10 AND 13 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
UNTIL WED EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 8N13W TO 0N20W TO 2S27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S39W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-3S BETWEEN 20W-22W...AND FROM 3S-
5S BETWEEN 27W-31W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
2S-4S BETWEEN 35W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE NW GULF FROM THE LOUISIANA
COAST NEAR 30N93W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N98W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 23N95 TO 19N94W. DENSE
FOG IS NOTED ALONG AND NW OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITH
EITHER OF THESE FEATURES. EASTERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. IN THE UPPER LEVEL... AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONT
AND TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. SE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH THE BASIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
IN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE NW GULF BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN UNTIL WED EVENING. SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND S OF PUERTO RICO.
SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W. MORE SHOWERS
ARE OVER INLAND HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO REMAIN OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM THE EAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N74W
TO 29N78W. A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
34N24W. IN THE TROPICS...AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 54W-60W MOVING W. OF
NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 27N20W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
A LARGE PART OF THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO PUSH S OF 31N AND
EXTEND FROM 31N57W TO 29N70W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



000
AXNT20 KNHC 030000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON MAR 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 10 AND 13 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
UNTIL WED EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 8N13W TO 0N20W TO 2S27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S39W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-3S BETWEEN 20W-22W...AND FROM 3S-
5S BETWEEN 27W-31W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
2S-4S BETWEEN 35W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE NW GULF FROM THE LOUISIANA
COAST NEAR 30N93W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N98W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 23N95 TO 19N94W. DENSE
FOG IS NOTED ALONG AND NW OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITH
EITHER OF THESE FEATURES. EASTERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. IN THE UPPER LEVEL... AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONT
AND TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. SE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH THE BASIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
IN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE NW GULF BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN UNTIL WED EVENING. SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND S OF PUERTO RICO.
SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W. MORE SHOWERS
ARE OVER INLAND HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO REMAIN OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM THE EAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N74W
TO 29N78W. A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
34N24W. IN THE TROPICS...AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 54W-60W MOVING W. OF
NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 27N20W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
A LARGE PART OF THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO PUSH S OF 31N AND
EXTEND FROM 31N57W TO 29N70W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



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